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Sample records for activity change predict

  1. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  2. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  3. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  4. Neural activity predicts attitude change in cognitive dissonance.

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    van Veen, Vincent; Krug, Marie K; Schooler, Jonathan W; Carter, Cameron S

    2009-11-01

    When our actions conflict with our prior attitudes, we often change our attitudes to be more consistent with our actions. This phenomenon, known as cognitive dissonance, is considered to be one of the most influential theories in psychology. However, the neural basis of this phenomenon is unknown. Using a Solomon four-group design, we scanned participants with functional MRI while they argued that the uncomfortable scanner environment was nevertheless a pleasant experience. We found that cognitive dissonance engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and anterior insula; furthermore, we found that the activation of these regions tightly predicted participants' subsequent attitude change. These effects were not observed in a control group. Our findings elucidate the neural representation of cognitive dissonance, and support the role of the anterior cingulate cortex in detecting cognitive conflict and the neural prediction of attitude change.

  5. LSD-induced entropic brain activity predicts subsequent personality change.

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    Lebedev, A V; Kaelen, M; Lövdén, M; Nilsson, J; Feilding, A; Nutt, D J; Carhart-Harris, R L

    2016-09-01

    Personality is known to be relatively stable throughout adulthood. Nevertheless, it has been shown that major life events with high personal significance, including experiences engendered by psychedelic drugs, can have an enduring impact on some core facets of personality. In the present, balanced-order, placebo-controlled study, we investigated biological predictors of post-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) changes in personality. Nineteen healthy adults underwent resting state functional MRI scans under LSD (75µg, I.V.) and placebo (saline I.V.). The Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) was completed at screening and 2 weeks after LSD/placebo. Scanning sessions consisted of three 7.5-min eyes-closed resting-state scans, one of which involved music listening. A standardized preprocessing pipeline was used to extract measures of sample entropy, which characterizes the predictability of an fMRI time-series. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate drug-induced shifts in brain entropy and their relationship with the observed increases in the personality trait openness at the 2-week follow-up. Overall, LSD had a pronounced global effect on brain entropy, increasing it in both sensory and hierarchically higher networks across multiple time scales. These shifts predicted enduring increases in trait openness. Moreover, the predictive power of the entropy increases was greatest for the music-listening scans and when "ego-dissolution" was reported during the acute experience. These results shed new light on how LSD-induced shifts in brain dynamics and concomitant subjective experience can be predictive of lasting changes in personality. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3203-3213, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Modeled changes of cerebellar activity in mutant mice are predictive of their learning impairments

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    Badura, Aleksandra; Clopath, Claudia; Schonewille, Martijn; de Zeeuw, Chris I.

    2016-11-01

    Translating neuronal activity to measurable behavioral changes has been a long-standing goal of systems neuroscience. Recently, we have developed a model of phase-reversal learning of the vestibulo-ocular reflex, a well-established, cerebellar-dependent task. The model, comprising both the cerebellar cortex and vestibular nuclei, reproduces behavioral data and accounts for the changes in neural activity during learning in wild type mice. Here, we used our model to predict Purkinje cell spiking as well as behavior before and after learning of five different lines of mutant mice with distinct cell-specific alterations of the cerebellar cortical circuitry. We tested these predictions by obtaining electrophysiological data depicting changes in neuronal spiking. We show that our data is largely consistent with the model predictions for simple spike modulation of Purkinje cells and concomitant behavioral learning in four of the mutants. In addition, our model accurately predicts a shift in simple spike activity in a mutant mouse with a brainstem specific mutation. This combination of electrophysiological and computational techniques opens a possibility of predicting behavioral impairments from neural activity.

  7. Organism activity levels predict marine invertebrate survival during ancient global change extinctions.

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    Clapham, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    Multistressor global change, the combined influence of ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, poses a serious threat to marine organisms. Experimental studies imply that organisms with higher levels of activity should be more resilient, but testing this prediction and understanding organism vulnerability at a global scale, over evolutionary timescales, and in natural ecosystems remain challenging. The fossil record, which contains multiple extinctions triggered by multistressor global change, is ideally suited for testing hypotheses at broad geographic, taxonomic, and temporal scales. Here, I assess the importance of activity level for survival of well-skeletonized benthic marine invertebrates over a 100-million-year-long interval (Permian to Jurassic periods) containing four global change extinctions, including the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions. More active organisms, based on a semiquantitative score incorporating feeding and motility, were significantly more likely to survive during three of the four extinction events (Guadalupian, end-Permian, and end-Triassic). In contrast, activity was not an important control on survival during nonextinction intervals. Both the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions also triggered abrupt shifts to increased dominance by more active organisms. Although mean activity gradually returned toward pre-extinction values, the net result was a permanent ratcheting of ecosystem-wide activity to higher levels. Selectivity patterns during ancient global change extinctions confirm the hypothesis that higher activity, a proxy for respiratory physiology, is a fundamental control on survival, although the roles of specific physiological traits (such as extracellular pCO2 or aerobic scope) cannot be distinguished. Modern marine ecosystems are dominated by more active organisms, in part because of selectivity ratcheting during these ancient extinctions, so on average may be less vulnerable to global change

  8. Changes in voluntary quadriceps activation predict changes in muscle strength and gait biomechanics following knee joint effusion.

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    Pietrosimone, Brian; Lepley, Adam S; Murray, Amanda M; Thomas, Abbey C; Bahhur, Nael O; Schwartz, Todd A

    2014-09-01

    It has been hypothesized that arthrogenic muscle inhibition is responsible for altering physical function following knee injury. The association between the onset of arthrogenic muscle inhibition, measured using voluntary quadriceps activation, and changes in muscle strength and gait biomechanics are unknown. Outcomes were collected before and following a 60 ml experimental knee effusion in eighteen healthy participants. Voluntary quadriceps activation was the predictor variable, while the criterion variable included, maximal voluntary isometric strength, peak knee flexion angle, peak internal knee extension moment, and peak vertical ground reaction forces during the first half of stance phase upon stair descent. Percent change scores (Δ) were imputed into linear regression equations to determine associations between predictor and criterion variables. The variance in Δ voluntary quadriceps activation significantly predicted 87% the variance in the Δ strength (R(2)=0.87, Pknee flexion angle, Δ voluntary quadriceps activation predicted an additional 29% (Δ R(2)=0.29, P=0.007) of the variance in the Δ knee extension moment (R(2)=0.54, P=0.003, Δ knee extension moment=-10.79+0.74Δ knee flexion angle+1.64Δ voluntary quadriceps activation) following knee effusion. Immediate quadriceps activation deficits following joint effusion result in immediate alterations in muscle strength, knee extensor moment and vertical ground reaction force during gait. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

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    Eva Guérin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P<.05 but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  10. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

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    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  11. Regional brain activity change predicts responsiveness to treatment for stuttering in adults.

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    Ingham, Roger J; Wang, Yuedong; Ingham, Janis C; Bothe, Anne K; Grafton, Scott T

    2013-12-01

    Developmental stuttering is known to be associated with aberrant brain activity, but there is no evidence that this knowledge has benefited stuttering treatment. This study investigated whether brain activity could predict progress during stuttering treatment for 21 dextral adults who stutter (AWS). They received one of two treatment programs that included periodic H2(15)O PET scanning (during oral reading, monologue, and eyes-closed rest conditions). All participants successfully completed an initial treatment phase and then entered a phase designed to transfer treatment gains; 9/21 failed to complete this latter phase. The 12 pass and 9 fail participants were similar on speech and neural system variables before treatment, and similar in speech performance after the initial phase of their treatment. At the end of the initial treatment phase, however, decreased activation within a single region, L. putamen, in all 3 scanning conditions was highly predictive of successful treatment progress.

  12. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  13. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    OpenAIRE

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  14. Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure.

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    Correa, John B; Apolzan, John W; Shepard, Desti N; Heil, Daniel P; Rood, Jennifer C; Martin, Corby K

    2016-07-01

    Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland-Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity.

  15. Does physical activity change predict functional recovery in low back pain? Protocol for a prospective cohort study

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    McDonough Suzanne M

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Activity advice and prescription are commonly used in the management of low back pain (LBP. Although there is evidence for advising patients with LBP to remain active, facilitating both recovery and return to work, to date no research has assessed whether objective measurements of free living physical activity (PA can predict outcome, recovery and course of LBP. Methods An observational longitudinal study will investigate PA levels in a cohort of community-dwelling working age adults with acute and sub-acute LBP. Each participant's PA level, functional status, mood, fear avoidance behaviours, and levels of pain, psychological distress and occupational activity will be measured on three occasions during for 1 week periods at baseline, 3 months, and 1 year. Physical activity levels will be measured by self report, RT3 triaxial accelerometer, and activity recall questionnaires. The primary outcome measure of functional recovery will be the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ. Free living PA levels and changes in functional status will be quantified in order to look at predictive relationships between levels and changes in free living PA and functional recovery in a LBP population. Discussion This research will investigate levels and changes in activity levels of an acute LBP cohort and the predictive relationship to LBP recovery. The results will assess whether occupational, psychological and behavioural factors affect the relationship between free living PA and LBP recovery. Results from this research will help to determine the strength of evidence supporting international guidelines that recommend restoration of normal activity in managing LBP. Trial registration [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12609000282280

  16. Physical activity predicts changes in body image during obesity treatment in women.

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    Carraça, Eliana V; Markland, David; Silva, Marlene N; Coutinho, Sílvia R; Vieira, Paulo N; Minderico, Cláudia S; Sardinha, Luís B; Teixeira, Pedro J

    2012-08-01

    This study examined effects of a behavioral weight management intervention on body image (evaluative and investment dimensions) and explored the potential mediating role of structured and lifestyle physical activity (PA). The study was a longitudinal randomized controlled trial, including a 1-yr behavior change intervention and a 2-yr follow-up (225 women, 37.6 ± 7 yr, body mass index = 31.5 ± 4.1 kg·m). Statistical analyses comprised mixed-design ANOVAs with repeated measures, bivariate/partial correlations, and mediation analyses. Body image improved considerably in both groups, favoring the intervention group (small to moderate effect sizes: 0.03-0.05), but began to deteriorate from 12 to 24 months, especially in the intervention group. Consequently, at 24 months, between-group differences were small and did not reach significance. Yet, levels of body dissatisfaction and dysfunctional investment remained below initial values (for both groups). Results were similar for both body image dimensions. Structured PA (at 12 and 24 months) and lifestyle PA (at 24 months) were positively associated with (r > -0.25, P investment component (95% confidence interval of -1.88 to -0.27 for structured PA at 12 months, 95% confidence interval of -1.94 to -0.21 for lifestyle PA at 24 months). In general, change in evaluative body image was not mediated by exercise participation, seeming more dependent on weight change. These findings highlight the importance of PA as a contributing factor in the improvement of body image in overweight/obese women, mainly by reducing excessive salience of appearance to one's life and self. Lifestyle PA may also be a valid option, particularly in the long term. Exercise might provide a buffer against body image deterioration overtime, favoring lasting weight loss maintenance.

  17. Possible effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on snow avalanche activity in western Norway

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    Laute, Katja; Beylich, Achim A.

    2016-04-01

    As snow avalanche formation is mainly governed by meteorological conditions as, e.g., air temperature fluctuations, heavy precipitation and wind conditions, it is likely that the frequency and magnitude of both ordinary and extreme snow avalanche events is modified through the documented effects of current and future climate change. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983-2013 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (IPCC, 2013). Meteorological records of western Norway show the general trend that the last 100 years, especially the last three decades, have been warmer and wetter than the time periods before. However, it is not evident that snow avalanche activity will increase in the near future. Today, the number of studies assessing the impact of climate change on the occurrence and magnitude of snow avalanches is limited. This work focuses on recent and possible future effects of climate change on snow avalanche activity along the western side of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap representing one of the areas with the highest snow avalanche activity in entire Norway. We have analyzed long-term homogenized meteorological data from five meteorological stations in different elevations above sea level, three of them with a long-term record of 120 years (1895-2015). In addition to the statistical analyses of long-term datasets, gained results and insights from a four-year (2009-2012) high-resolution snow avalanche monitoring study conducted in the same study area are incorporated. The statistical analyses of mean monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation sums and mean monthly snow depths showed that there is a trend of increasing air temperatures and precipitation sums whereas no clear trend was found for mean snow depths. Magnitude-frequency analyses conducted for three defined time intervals (120, 90, 60 years) of monthly precipitation sums exhibit an increase of precipitation especially during the last 30 years with the tendency that more precipitation

  18. Differential patterns of amygdala and ventral striatum activation predict gender-specific changes in sexual risk behavior.

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    Victor, Elizabeth C; Sansosti, Alexandra A; Bowman, Hilary C; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2015-06-10

    Although the initiation of sexual behavior is common among adolescents and young adults, some individuals express this behavior in a manner that significantly increases their risk for negative outcomes including sexually transmitted infections. Based on accumulating evidence, we have hypothesized that increased sexual risk behavior reflects, in part, an imbalance between neural circuits mediating approach and avoidance in particular as manifest by relatively increased ventral striatum (VS) activity and relatively decreased amygdala activity. Here, we test our hypothesis using data from seventy 18- to 22-year-old university students participating in the Duke Neurogenetics Study. We found a significant three-way interaction between amygdala activation, VS activation, and gender predicting changes in the number of sexual partners over time. Although relatively increased VS activation predicted greater increases in sexual partners for both men and women, the effect in men was contingent on the presence of relatively decreased amygdala activation and the effect in women was contingent on the presence of relatively increased amygdala activation. These findings suggest unique gender differences in how complex interactions between neural circuit function contributing to approach and avoidance may be expressed as sexual risk behavior in young adults. As such, our findings have the potential to inform the development of novel, gender-specific strategies that may be more effective at curtailing sexual risk behavior.

  19. Theory of planned behaviour cognitions do not predict self-reported or objective physical activity levels or change in the ProActive trial.

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    Hardeman, Wendy; Kinmonth, Ann Louise; Michie, Susan; Sutton, Stephen

    2011-02-01

    The objective was to test, in a trial cohort of sedentary adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes, whether theory of planned behaviour (TPB) cognitions about becoming more physically active predicted objective and self-reported activity levels and change. Participants of a randomized controlled trial underwent measurement at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Participants (N= 365, 30-50 years) were recruited via their parent or family history registers at 20 general practices in the UK. Energy expenditure was measured objectively at baseline and 1 year. Participants completed questionnaires assessing physical activity and beliefs about becoming more physically active over the next year at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Between baseline and 12 months, objective energy expenditure in the cohort increased by an average of 20 minutes of brisk walking per day. Based on the 252 participants who provided complete data, affective attitude and perceived behavioural control consistently predicted intention, but intention and perceived behavioural control failed to predict physical activity levels or change (p-values > .05). Failure of the theory to predict behaviour and behaviour change may be due to inapplicability of the theory to this at-risk population or to trial participation and intensive measurement facilitating behaviour change without affecting measured cognitions, or lack of correspondence between cognitive and behavioural measures. A wide range of potential personal and environmental mediators should be considered when designing physical activity interventions among at-risk groups. High-quality experimental tests of the theory are needed in clinical populations. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Changes in retinal venular oxygen saturation predict activity of proliferative diabetic retinopathy 3 months after panretinal photocoagulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torp, Thomas Lee; Kawasaki, Ryo; Wong, Tien Yin

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) is a severe blinding condition. We investigated whether retinal metabolism, measured by retinal oximetry, may predict PDR activity after panretinal laser photocoagulation (PRP). METHODS: We performed a prospective, interventional, clinical...

  1. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular deve...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  2. Predicting change in physical activity, dietary restraint, and physique anxiety in adolescent girls: examining covariance in physical self-perceptions.

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    Crocker, Peter; Sabiston, Catherine; Forrestor, Shannon; Kowalski, Nanette; Kowalski, Kent; McDonough, Meghan

    2003-01-01

    To examine: i) the mean changes in adolescent females' body mass index (BMI), global self-esteem, physical self-perceptions, social physique anxiety, physical activity, and dietary restraint; ii) the stability of measuring self-perceptions, BMI, self-esteem, physique anxiety, activity, and dietary restraint; and iii) the relationships among changes in these variables over 12 months. 631 female adolescents (15-16 years old) involved in a two-year study of self-report measures completed validated questionnaires in high school classroom settings. There were small but significant group increases in BMI and social physique anxiety and significant decreases in sport, conditioning, and strength physical self-perceptions and physical activity. Stability analysis indicates moderate to strong stability for all variables. Change analyses indicated that BMI, due to its high stability, is a poor predictor of change in all variables. Stronger significant correlations were noted between change in body appearance self-perceptions and change in social physique anxiety (r=-0.54) and dietary restraint (r=-0.27). There was also a significant relationship between change in physical activity and the physical self-perceptions, although conditioning was the only significant (p<0.05) predictor of change in physical activity (beta=0.340). Physical self-perceptions are a stronger predictor of change in physical activity, dietary restraint, and social physique anxiety compared to BMI. This demonstrates the importance of physical self-perceptions when investigating health-related behaviours associated with dieting and physical activity. The decline in physical activity and increase in BMI is an ongoing concern, as is the link between body appearance self-perceptions and dietary restraint and social physique anxiety.

  3. Predicting Changes in Physical Activity among Adolescents: The Role of Self-Efficacy, Intention, Action Planning and Coping Planning

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    Araujo-Soares, Vera; McIntyre, Teresa; Sniehotta, Falko F.

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to test the direct predictors of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), action planning and coping planning as predictors of changes in physical activity (PA) in 157 adolescents (mean age: 12). TPB measures, the Action Planning and Coping Planning Scales (APCPS) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaires were measured…

  4. A conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on ectotherm activity with implications for predicting responses to global change.

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    Gunderson, Alex R; Leal, Manuel

    2015-12-09

    Activity budgets influence the expression of life history traits as well as population dynamics. For ectotherms, a major constraint on activity is environmental temperature. Nonetheless, we currently lack a comprehensive conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on activity, which hinders our ability to rigorously apply activity data to answer ecological and evolutionary questions. Here, we integrate multiple aspects of temperature-dependent activity into a single unified framework that has general applicability. We also provide examples of the implementation of this framework to address fundamental questions in ecology relating to climate change vulnerability and species' distributions using empirical data from a tropical lizard.

  5. Optimization of muscle activity for task-level goals predicts complex changes in limb forces across biomechanical contexts.

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    J Lucas McKay

    Full Text Available Optimality principles have been proposed as a general framework for understanding motor control in animals and humans largely based on their ability to predict general features movement in idealized motor tasks. However, generalizing these concepts past proof-of-principle to understand the neuromechanical transformation from task-level control to detailed execution-level muscle activity and forces during behaviorally-relevant motor tasks has proved difficult. In an unrestrained balance task in cats, we demonstrate that achieving task-level constraints center of mass forces and moments while minimizing control effort predicts detailed patterns of muscle activity and ground reaction forces in an anatomically-realistic musculoskeletal model. Whereas optimization is typically used to resolve redundancy at a single level of the motor hierarchy, we simultaneously resolved redundancy across both muscles and limbs and directly compared predictions to experimental measures across multiple perturbation directions that elicit different intra- and interlimb coordination patterns. Further, although some candidate task-level variables and cost functions generated indistinguishable predictions in a single biomechanical context, we identified a common optimization framework that could predict up to 48 experimental conditions per animal (n = 3 across both perturbation directions and different biomechanical contexts created by altering animals' postural configuration. Predictions were further improved by imposing experimentally-derived muscle synergy constraints, suggesting additional task variables or costs that may be relevant to the neural control of balance. These results suggested that reduced-dimension neural control mechanisms such as muscle synergies can achieve similar kinetics to the optimal solution, but with increased control effort (≈2× compared to individual muscle control. Our results are consistent with the idea that hierarchical, task

  6. Participant Adherence Indicators Predict Changes in Blood Pressure, Anthropometric Measures, and Self-Reported Physical Activity in a Lifestyle Intervention: HUB City Steps

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    Thomson, Jessica L.; Landry, Alicia S.; Zoellner, Jamie M.; Connell, Carol; Madson, Michael B.; Molaison, Elaine Fontenot; Yadrick, Kathy

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this secondary analysis was to evaluate the utility of several participant adherence indicators for predicting changes in clinical, anthropometric, dietary, fitness, and physical activity (PA) outcomes in a lifestyle intervention, HUB City Steps, conducted in a southern, African American cohort in 2010. HUB City Steps was a…

  7. Markov Model Predicts Changes in STH Prevalence during Control Activities Even with a Reduced Amount of Baseline Information.

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    Antonio Montresor

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the reduction in levels of infection during implementation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH control programmes is important to measure their performance and to plan interventions. Markov modelling techniques have been used with some success to predict changes in STH prevalence following treatment in Viet Nam. The model is stationary and to date, the prediction has been obtained by calculating the transition probabilities between the different classes of intensity following the first year of drug distribution and assuming that these remain constant in subsequent years. However, to run this model longitudinal parasitological data (including intensity of infection are required for two consecutive years from at least 200 individuals. Since this amount of data is not often available from STH control programmes, the possible application of the model in control programme is limited. The present study aimed to address this issue by adapting the existing Markov model to allow its application when a more limited amount of data is available and to test the predictive capacities of these simplified models.We analysed data from field studies conducted with different combination of three parameters: (i the frequency of drug administration; (ii the drug distributed; and (iii the target treatment population (entire population or school-aged children only. This analysis allowed us to define 10 sets of standard transition probabilities to be used to predict prevalence changes when only baseline data are available (simplified model 1. We also formulated three equations (one for each STH parasite to calculate the predicted prevalence of the different classes of intensity from the total prevalence. These equations allowed us to design a simplified model (SM2 to obtain predictions when the classes of intensity at baseline were not known. To evaluate the performance of the simplified models, we collected data from the scientific literature on changes in

  8. Relative Importance of Baseline Pain, Fatigue, Sleep, and Physical Activity: Predicting Change in Depression in Adults With Multiple Sclerosis.

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    Edwards, Karlyn A; Molton, Ivan R; Smith, Amanda E; Ehde, Dawn M; Bombardier, Charles H; Battalio, Samuel L; Jensen, Mark P

    2016-08-01

    To determine whether baseline levels of pain, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and physical activity measured at the initial assessment predicted the development of or improvement of depression 3.5 years later, while controlling for sex, age, and disease severity. Observational, longitudinal survey study. A community-based population sample. Adults with multiple sclerosis (MS) (N=489). Not applicable. Primary outcome was classification of depression group measured using a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 cutoff score ≥10, indicating probable major depression. Fatigue severity (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.26; P<.0001) and sleep disturbance (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.10; P=.001) predicted probable major depression 3.5 years later among those not depressed at the initial assessment. An effect of age (odds ratio, .96; 95% confidence interval, .92-.99; P=.008) was found among those who developed depression, indicating that younger adults were more likely to develop depression. Pain, fatigue, sleep, and physical activity at baseline were not significantly associated with recovery from depression among those depressed at the initial assessment. Fatigue and sleep may contribute to the development of depression. Clinical trial research targeting these variables to determine their influence on depression is warranted. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicting Decades of Shoreline Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. D.; McNinch, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nearshore morphology models predicting storm-scale erosion have been in use for the past several decades. These tools have typically focused on a single time-scale, which limits the utilization. The present effort details the development of a physics-based numerical model that incorporates the cross-shore profile evolution as well as the alongshore variation at two distinct time-scales. The new method assumes that frequent (seconds) bed-level updates due to cross-shore transport gradients are necessary, while the longshore sediment balance can be accumulated numerically over times of about a day before the resultant bottom evolution is imposed. The new model remains consistent for use in a single storm as well as predictions for evolution over several decades. Some limitations exist on the longshore uniformity, and appropriate applications include shorelines with gentle variations in the alongshore conditions arising from nonuniform bathymetry or gradients in wave conditions. Sand transport predictions account for wave and current interaction, bedload and suspended load, and wave-related sediment transport. An initial comparison of 20 years of morphological evolution is conducted for Onslow Beach, NC, a gently-varying contiguous sandy barrier island. Shoreline position data are available for the 10 km of coast fronting the Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune. Wave conditions from the long-term WIS wave hindcast are used, while water levels are developed from the available NOAA tide gauge records. With a complete set of boundary and initial conditions, numerical model results constitute a complete 20 year history of transport and morphological evolution. The wave energy directional spectrum is nearly symmetric relative to the shore-normal transect, and although large sand transport is predicted to the North and to the South at times, a relatively small average residual longshore transport is computed. The measured morphological changes are mixed along the length of

  10. Using constructs of the transtheoretical model to predict classes of change in regular physical activity: a multi-ethnic longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dishman, Rod K; Vandenberg, Robert J; Motl, Robert W; Nigg, Claudio R

    2010-10-01

    Explaining variation in meeting recommended levels of physical activity across time is important for the design of effective public health interventions. To model longitudinal change in constructs of the Transtheoretical Model and test their hypothesized relations with change in meeting the Healthy People 2010 guidelines for regular participation in moderate or vigorous physical activity, a cohort (N = 497) from a random, multi-ethnic sample of 700 adults living in Hawaii was assessed at 6-month intervals three or more times for 2 years. Latent class growth modeling was used to classify people according to their initial levels and trajectories of change in the transtheoretical variables and separately according to whether they met the physical activity guideline each time. Relations of the variables and their change with classes of meeting the guideline were then tested using multinomial logistic regression. Despite declines or no change in mean scores for all transtheoretical variables except self-efficacy, participants who maintained or attained the physical activity guideline were more likely to retain higher scores across the 2 years of observation. The usefulness of transtheoretical constructs for predicting maintenance of, or increases in, public health levels of physical activity was generally supported. These longitudinal results support earlier cross-sectional findings which indicate that, contrary to theory, people appear to use both experiential and behavioral processes while they attempt to increase or maintain their physical activity.

  11. Predicting Persuasion-Induced Behavior Change from the Brain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D.

    2011-01-01

    Although persuasive messages often alter people’s self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p < 0.05). Additionally, an iterative cross-validation approach using activity in this MPFC ROI predicted an average 23% of the variance in behavior change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance. PMID:20573889

  12. Which psychological, social and physical environmental characteristics predict changes in physical activity and sedentary behaviors during early retirement? A longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delfien Van Dyck

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background In the context of healthy ageing, it is necessary to identify opportunities to implement health interventions in order to develop an active lifestyle with sufficient physical activity and limited sedentary time in middle-aged and older adults. The transition to retirement is such an opportunity, as individuals tend to establish new routines at the start of retirement. Before health interventions can be developed, the psychological, social and physical environmental determinants of physical activity and sedentary behaviors during early retirement should be identified, ideally with longitudinal studies. The aim of this paper was first to examine whether psychological, social and physical environmental factors at the start of retirement predict longitudinal changes in physical activity and sedentary behaviors during the first years of retirement. Second, moderating effects of gender and educational levels were examined. Methods This longitudinal study was conducted in Flanders, Belgium. In total, 180 recently retired (>1 month, <2 years at baseline adults completed a postal questionnaire twice (in 2012–2013 and two years later in 2014–2015. The validated questionnaire assessed socio-demographic information, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and psychological, social and physical environmental characteristics. Multiple moderated hierarchic regression analyses were conducted in SPSS 22.0. Results Higher perceived residential density (p < 0.001 and lower aesthetics (p = 0.08 predicted an increase in active transportation (adjusted R2 = 0.18. Higher baseline self-efficacy was associated with an increase in leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.13. A more positive perception of old age (p = 0.04 and perceiving less street connectivity (p = 0.001 were associated with an increase in screen time (adjusted R2 = 0.06. Finally, higher baseline levels of modeling from friends (p = 0.06 and lower

  13. A model for aryl hydrocarbon receptor-activated gene expression shows potency and efficacy changes and predicts squelching due to competition for transcription co-activators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ted W Simon

    Full Text Available A stochastic model of nuclear receptor-mediated transcription was developed based on activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD and subsequent binding the activated AHR to xenobiotic response elements (XREs on DNA. The model was based on effects observed in cells lines commonly used as in vitro experimental systems. Following ligand binding, the AHR moves into the cell nucleus and forms a heterodimer with the aryl hydrocarbon nuclear translocator (ARNT. In the model, a requirement for binding to DNA is that a generic coregulatory protein is subsequently bound to the AHR-ARNT dimer. Varying the amount of coregulator available within the nucleus altered both the potency and efficacy of TCDD for inducing for transcription of CYP1A1 mRNA, a commonly used marker for activation of the AHR. Lowering the amount of available cofactor slightly increased the EC50 for the transcriptional response without changing the efficacy or maximal response. Further reduction in the amount of cofactor reduced the efficacy and produced non-monotonic dose-response curves (NMDRCs at higher ligand concentrations. The shapes of these NMDRCs were reminiscent of the phenomenon of squelching. Resource limitations for transcriptional machinery are becoming apparent in eukaryotic cells. Within single cells, nuclear receptor-mediated gene expression appears to be a stochastic process; however, intercellular communication and other aspects of tissue coordination may represent a compensatory process to maintain an organism's ability to respond on a phenotypic level to various stimuli within an inconstant environment.

  14. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  15. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  16. Participant adherence indicatiors predict changes in blood pressure, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity in a lifestyle intervention: HUB City Steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpose. To evaluate several adherence indicators, created using 2 measures, separately and in combination, for predicting health outcome changes. Design. Non-experimental with pre-post measures. Setting. Mid-sized city in southern region of United States. Subjects. 269 primarily African-America...

  17. Predicting Change in Adolescent Adjustment from Change in Marital Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Ming; Conger, Rand D.; Lorenz, Frederick O.

    2005-01-01

    The present prospective, longitudinal study of 451 adolescents and their parents extends earlier research by investigating whether change in marital problems predicts change in adolescent adjustment, after controlling for other marital problems and socioeconomic status. Latent growth curves over a period of 5 years were used, and the results…

  18. Using Constructs of the Transtheoretical Model to Predict Classes of Change in Regular Physical Activity: A Multi-Ethnic Longitudinal Cohort Study

    OpenAIRE

    Dishman, Rod K.; Vandenberg, Robert J; Motl, Robert W.; Nigg, Claudio R

    2010-01-01

    Explaining variation in meeting recommended levels of physical activity across time is important for the design of effective public health interventions. To model longitudinal change in constructs of the Transtheoretical Model and test their hypothesized relations with change in meeting the Healthy People 2010 guidelines for regular participation in moderate or vigorous physical activity, a cohort (N=497) from a random, multi-ethnic sample of 700 adults living in Hawaii was assessed at 6-mont...

  19. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  20. Human activity recognition and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a unique view of human activity recognition, especially fine-grained human activity structure learning, human-interaction recognition, RGB-D data based action recognition, temporal decomposition, and causality learning in unconstrained human activity videos. The techniques discussed give readers tools that provide a significant improvement over existing methodologies of video content understanding by taking advantage of activity recognition. It links multiple popular research fields in computer vision, machine learning, human-centered computing, human-computer interaction, image classification, and pattern recognition. In addition, the book includes several key chapters covering multiple emerging topics in the field. Contributed by top experts and practitioners, the chapters present key topics from different angles and blend both methodology and application, composing a solid overview of the human activity recognition techniques. .

  1. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  2. Response to mTOR inhibition: activity of eIF4E predicts sensitivity in cell lines and acquired changes in eIF4E regulation in breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartlett John MS

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inhibitors of the kinase mTOR, such as rapamycin and everolimus, have been used as cancer therapeutics with limited success since some tumours are resistant. Efforts to establish predictive markers to allow selection of patients with tumours likely to respond have centred on determining phosphorylation states of mTOR or its targets 4E-BP1 and S6K in cancer cells. In an alternative approach we estimated eIF4E activity, a key effector of mTOR function, and tested the hypothesis that eIF4E activity predicts sensitivity to mTOR inhibition in cell lines and in breast tumours. Results We found a greater than three fold difference in sensitivity of representative colon, lung and breast cell lines to rapamycin. Using an assay to quantify influences of eIF4E on the translational efficiency specified by structured 5'UTRs, we showed that this estimate of eIF4E activity was a significant predictor of rapamycin sensitivity, with higher eIF4E activities indicative of enhanced sensitivity. Surprisingly, non-transformed cell lines were not less sensitive to rapamycin and did not have lower eIF4E activities than cancer lines, suggesting the mTOR/4E-BP1/eIF4E axis is deregulated in these non-transformed cells. In the context of clinical breast cancers, we estimated eIF4E activity by analysing expression of eIF4E and its functional regulators within tumour cells and combining these scores to reflect inhibitory and activating influences on eIF4E. Estimates of eIF4E activity in cancer biopsies taken at diagnosis did not predict sensitivity to 11-14 days of pre-operative everolimus treatment, as assessed by change in tumour cell proliferation from diagnosis to surgical excision. However, higher pre-treatment eIF4E activity was significantly associated with dramatic post-treatment changes in expression of eIF4E and 4E-binding proteins, suggesting that eIF4E is further deregulated in these tumours in response to mTOR inhibition. Conclusions

  3. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  4. SORL1 predicts longitudinal cognitive change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Chandra A.; Zavala, Catalina; Gatz, Margaret; Vie, Loryana; Johansson, Boo; Malmberg, Bo; Ingelsson, Erik; Prince, Jonathan A.; Pedersen, Nancy L.

    2013-01-01

    The gene encoding sortilin receptor 1 (SORL1) has been associated with Alzheimer’s disease risk. We examined 15 SORL1 variants and SNP-set risk scores in relation to longitudinal verbal, spatial, memory and perceptual speed performance, testing for age trends and sex-specific effects. Altogether, 1609 individuals from three population-based Swedish twin studies were assessed up to five times across 16 years. Controlling for APOE, multiple simple and sex-moderated associations were observed for spatial, episodic memory and verbal trajectories (p = 1.25E-03 to p = 4.83E-02). Five variants (rs11600875, rs753780, rs7105365, rs11820794, rs2070045) were associated across domains. Notably, in those homozygous for rs2070045 risk alleles, males demonstrated initially favorable performance but accelerating declines, while females showed overall lower performance. SNP-set risk scores predicted spatial (Card Rotations, p = 5.92E-03) and episodic memory trajectories (Thurstone Picture Memory, p = 3.34E-02), where higher risk scores benefitted men’s versus women’s performance up to age 75 but with accelerating declines. SORL1 is associated with cognitive aging, and may contribute differentially to change in men and women. PMID:23318115

  5. Sortilin receptor 1 predicts longitudinal cognitive change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Chandra A; Zavala, Catalina; Gatz, Margaret; Vie, Loryana; Johansson, Boo; Malmberg, Bo; Ingelsson, Erik; Prince, Jonathan A; Pedersen, Nancy L

    2013-06-01

    The gene encoding sortilin receptor 1 (SORL1) has been associated with Alzheimer's disease risk. We examined 15 SORL1 variants and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set risk scores in relation to longitudinal verbal, spatial, memory, and perceptual speed performance, testing for age trends and sex-specific effects. Altogether, 1609 individuals from 3 population-based Swedish twin studies were assessed up to 5 times across 16 years. Controlling for apolipoprotein E genotype (APOE), multiple simple and sex-moderated associations were observed for spatial, episodic memory, and verbal trajectories (p = 1.25E-03 to p = 4.83E-02). Five variants (rs11600875, rs753780, rs7105365, rs11820794, rs2070045) were associated across domains. Notably, in those homozygous for the rs2070045 risk allele, men demonstrated initially favorable performance but accelerating declines, and women showed overall lower performance. SNP set risk scores predicted spatial (Card Rotations, p = 5.92E-03) and episodic memory trajectories (Thurstone Picture Memory, p = 3.34E-02), where higher risk scores benefited men's versus women's performance up to age 75 but with accelerating declines. SORL1 is associated with cognitive aging, and might contribute differentially to change in men and women. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Activity Prediction: A Twitter-based Exploration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.

    2012-01-01

    Social media platforms allow users to share their messages with everyone else. In microblogs, e.g., Twitter, people mostly report on what they did, they talk about current activities, and mention things they plan to do in the near future. In this paper, we propose the task of activity prediction, th

  7. Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jokinen, Hanna; Schmidt, Reinhold; Ropele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic...

  8. Why looking at the whole hippocampus is not enough – a critical role for anteroposterior axis, subfield and activation analyses to enhance predictive value of hippocampal changes for Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra eMaruszak

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The hippocampus is one of the earliest affected brain regions in Alzheimer´s disease (AD and its dysfunction is believed to underlie the core feature of the disease- memory impairment. Given that hippocampal volume is one of the best AD biomarkers, our review focuses on distinct subfields within the hippocampus, pinpointing regions that might enhance the predictive value of current diagnostic methods. Our review presents how changes in hippocampal volume, shape, symmetry and activation are reflected by cognitive impairment and how they are linked with neurogenesis alterations. Moreover, we revisit the functional differentiation along the anteroposterior longitudinal axis of the hippocampus and discuss its relevance for AD diagnosis. Finally, we indicate that apart from hippocampal subfield volumetry, the characteristic pattern of hippocampal hyperactivation associated with seizures and neurogenesis changes is another promising candidate for an early AD biomarker that could become also a target for early interventions.

  9. Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumazawa, T.; Ogata, Y.; Kimura, Y.; Maeda, K.; Kobayashi, A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed several times since 1980s monitored by strain-meters located nearby. Major swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic and preseismic significant sizes of a volumetric strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013), and have found the followings. The modified volumetric strain change data by removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps have much higher cross-correlations to the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate change of the ETAS, and further the strain changes precede the background seismicity by lag of about a day. This relation suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms in this region. References Earthquake Research Committee (2010). Report on "Prediction of seismic activity in the Izu Eastern Region" (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku/izu/index.htm Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS model, J Geophys.Res. 118, 6165-6182.

  10. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  11. "Patent Activity and Technical Change"

    OpenAIRE

    Robert L. Basmann; Michael, McAleer; Daniel, Slottje

    2003-01-01

    As creations of the mind, intellectual property includes industrial property and copyrights. This paper presents an aggregate production function of the generalized Fechner-Thurstone (GFT) form to analyze the impact of an important component of intellectual industrial property, namely patent activity, on technical change in the USA for the period 1947-1981. Patents should alter isoquant maps, and measuring their elasticities is both intuitively and empirically appealing. We define a technolog...

  12. Relationship between efficiency and predictability in stock price change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-09-01

    In this study, we evaluate the relationship between efficiency and predictability in the stock market. The efficiency, which is the issue addressed by the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, is calculated using the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn). The predictability corresponds to the hit-rate; this is the rate of consistency between the direction of the actual price change and that of the predicted price change, as calculated via the nearest neighbor prediction method. We determine that the Hurst exponent and the ApEn value are negatively correlated. However, predictability is positively correlated with the Hurst exponent.

  13. Predicting the Expected Rate of Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴梦想

    2016-01-01

    Since December 2013,Ebola outbreak in west Africa again, and the year's disease was the most serious Ebola serious, which arouse the global attention. We are consider that among the countries where outbreak Ebola disease, Nigeria has the most serious problem. So we choose Nigeria as our object, establish differential equation and take the initial value to calculate, expecting rate of change in the number of Ebola infections for the country from 2006 to 2015, in the absence of any additional drugs. Clearly giving the inspecting time, we can get the change of the number of healthy people and the patients.

  14. Features and prospects of juridical predicting of entrepreneurial activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya V. Rubtsova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify characteristics and prospects of predicting the business activity. Methods historical sociological logical systematicstructural formallegal comparativelegal legal modeling method. Results in article suggests the legal definition of prediction of business activity as a scientific and practical study aimed at the determination of the future state and prospects of development of business activity consisting of the evaluation of legal regulation and analysis of the prospectsof further socioeconomic development which aims to select the optimal solution for the further development of entrepreneurship through legal regulators. The work proves the necessity of achieving a balanced legal regulation of social relations by changing the legislation in the field of business agreements investment and innovation. Scientific novelty the article for the first time formulates the concept characteristics and features of legal prediction of business activity substantiates the impact of predicting on the development of legal regulation of social relations. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching while considering the issues of predicting both the socioeconomic processes in general and business activity in particular.

  15. Prediction control of active power filters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王莉娜; 罗安

    2003-01-01

    A prediction method to obtain harmonic reference for active power filter is presented. It is a new use ofthe adaptive predictive filter based on FIR. The delay inherent in digital controller is successfully compensated by u-sing the proposed method, and the computing load is not very large compared with the conventional method. Moreo-ver, no additional hardware is needed. Its DSP-based realization is also presented, which is characterized by time-va-riant rate sampling, quasi synchronous sampling, and synchronous operation among the line frequency, PWM gener-ating and sampling in A/D unit. Synchronous operation releases the limitation on PWM modulation ratio and guar-antees that the electrical noises resulting from the switching operation of IGBTs do not interfere with the sampledcurrent. The simulation and experimental results verify the satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

  16. CERAPP: Collaborative estrogen receptor activity prediction project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER......). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. oBjectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project...

  17. The Built Environment Predicts Observed Physical Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl eKelly

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. In order to improve our understanding of the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, it is important to identify associations between specific geographic characteristics and physical activity behaviors.Purpose. Examine relationships between observed physical activity behavior and measures of the built environment collected on 291 street segments in Indianapolis and St. Louis. Methods. Street segments were selected using a stratifıed geographic sampling design to ensure representation of neighborhoods with different land use and socioeconomic characteristics. Characteristics of the built environment on street segments were audited using two methods: in-person field audits and audits based on interpretation of Google Street View imagery with each method blinded to results from the other. Segments were dichotomized as having a particular characteristic (e.g., sidewalk present or not based on the two auditing methods separately. Counts of individuals engaged in different forms of physical activity on each segment were assessed using direct observation. Non-parametric statistics were used to compare counts of physically active individuals on each segment with built environment characteristic. Results. Counts of individuals engaged in physical activity were significantly higher on segments with mixed land use or all non-residential land use, and on segments with pedestrian infrastructure (e.g., crosswalks, sidewalks and public transit. Conclusions. Several micro-level built environment characteristics are associated with physical activity. These data provide support for theories that suggest changing the built environment and related policies may encourage more physical activity.

  18. Free light fields can change the predictions of hybrid inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Tomohiro, E-mail: matsuda@sit.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YB (United Kingdom)

    2012-04-01

    We show that the free light scalar fields that may exist in the inflationary Universe can change the predictions of the hybrid inflation model. Possible signatures are discussed, which can be used to discriminate the sources of the spectrum.

  19. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  20. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Fasciola hepatica Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J.; White, Piran C. L.; McClean, Colin J.; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R.

    2011-01-01

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits. PMID:21249228

  1. Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor

    OpenAIRE

    Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial str...

  2. Predicting domains and rates of change in borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzenweger, Mark F; Clarkin, John F; Levy, Kenneth N; Yeomans, Frank E; Kernberg, Otto F

    2012-04-01

    What changes and how quickly these changes occur as a result of therapy in borderline personality disorder (BPD) is an important ongoing question. The features of BPD patients that are most predictive of rates of change in such patients remain largely unknown. Using the Cornell Personality Disorders Institute (CPDI) randomized controlled trial data, we sought to determine (a) the number and nature of broad domains underlying a large number of rate of change (slope) measures across many psychological, psychiatric, and psychosocial indexes, and (b) which baseline individual difference psychological features of the BPD patients correlated with these rate of change domains. We examined the latent structure of slope (rate of change) measures gleaned from individual growth curves for each subject, studied in multiwave perspective, on separate measures of anger, aggression, impulsivity, depression, global functioning, and social adjustment. Three broad domains of change rate could be discerned. These domains were reflected in factors that are described as (a) anger/aggression change ("aggressive dyscontrol"), (b) global functioning/social adjustment change ("social adjustment/self-acceptance"), and (c) anxiety/depression/impulsivity change ("conflict tolerance/behavioral control"). Factor scores were computed for each change domain and baseline measures of personality and psychodynamic features, selected a priori, were correlated with these factor scores. Multiple regression analyses revealed (a) baseline negative affectivity and aggression predicted the aggressive dyscontrol change domain, (b) baseline identity diffusion predicted the social adjustment/self-acceptance change domain, and (c) baseline social potency predicted the conflict tolerance/behavioral control change domain. These baseline predictors suggest potential research foci for understanding those aspects of BPD that change at comparable rates over time.

  3. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblas-Reyes, F J; Andreu-Burillo, I; Chikamoto, Y; García-Serrano, J; Guemas, V; Kimoto, M; Mochizuki, T; Rodrigues, L R L; van Oldenborgh, G J

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  4. Supporting change processes in design: Complexity, prediction and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert, Claudia M. [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: cme26@cam.ac.uk; Keller, Rene [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: rk313@cam.ac.uk; Earl, Chris [Open University, Department of Design and Innovation, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: C.F.Earl@open.ac.uk; Clarkson, P. John [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pjc10@cam.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    Change to existing products is fundamental to design processes. New products are often designed through change or modification to existing products. Specific parts or subsystems are changed to similar ones whilst others are directly reused. Design by modification applies particularly to safety critical products where the reuse of existing working parts and subsystems can reduce cost and risk. However change is rarely a matter of just reusing or modifying parts. Changing one part can propagate through the entire design leading to costly rework or jeopardising the integrity of the whole product. This paper characterises product change based on studies in the aerospace and automotive industry and introduces tools to aid designers in understanding the potential effects of change. Two ways of supporting designers are described: probabilistic prediction of the effects of change and visualisation of change propagation through product connectivities. Change propagation has uncertainties which are amplified by the choices designers make in practice as they implement change. Change prediction and visualisation is discussed with reference to complexity in three areas of product development: the structural backcloth of connectivities in the existing product (and its processes), the descriptions of the product used in design and the actions taken to carry out changes.

  5. Social change and physical activity

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Lars-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    Today’s Western society is undergoing rapid change, and the speed of this process of change seems to be increasing. One of the major social changes is the gradual changeover from daily lives that contained high levels of physical effort to lives that are increasingly sedentary. A sedentary lifestyle is not without its problems. Several common illnesses are related to physical inactivity. Athletics, exercise, outdoor life and trend sports must be regarded as expressions of lifestyle and not as...

  6. Changes in Pilot Behavior with Predictive System Status Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1998-01-01

    Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, changes in pilot behavior associated with using this predictive information have not been ascertained. The study described here quantified these changes using three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and three initial time intervals until a parameter alert range was reached (ITIs) (1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes). With predictive information, subjects accomplished most of their tasks before an alert occurred. Subjects organized the time they did their tasks by locus-of-control with no predictive information and for the 1-minute ITI, and by aviatenavigate-communicate for the time for a parameter to reach an alert range and the 15-minute conditions. Overall, predictive information and the longer ITIs moved subjects to performing tasks before the alert actually occurred and had them more mission oriented as indicated by their tasks grouping of aviate-navigate-communicate.

  7. Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time

  8. The ACTIVE cognitive training trial and predicted medical expenditures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith David M

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health care expenditures for older adults are disproportionately high and increasing at both the individual and population levels. We evaluated the effects of the three cognitive training interventions (memory, reasoning, or speed of processing in the ACTIVE study on changes in predicted medical care expenditures. Methods ACTIVE was a multisite randomized controlled trial of older adults (≥ 65. Five-year follow-up data were available for 1,804 of the 2,802 participants. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for potential attrition bias. Changes in predicted annualmedical expenditures were calculated at the first and fifth annual follow-up assessments using a new method for translating functional status scores. Multiple linear regression methods were used in this cost-offset analysis. Results At one and five years post-training, annual predicted expenditures declinedby $223 (p = .024 and $128 (p = .309, respectively, in the speed of processing treatment group, but there were no statistically significant changes in the memory or reasoning treatment groups compared to the no-contact control group at either period. Statistical adjustment for age, race, education, MMSE scores, ADL and IADL performance scores, EPT scores, chronic condition counts, and the SF-36 PCS and MCS scores at baseline did not alter the one-year ($244; p = .012 or five-year ($143; p = .250 expenditure declines in the speed of processing treatment group. Conclusion The speed of processing intervention significantly reduced subsequent annual predicted medical care expenditures at the one-year post-baseline comparison, but annual savings were no longer statistically significant at the five-year post-baseline comparison.

  9. Predicting coastal morphological changes with empirical orthogonal functionmethod

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Alvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy of prediction when using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF method, this paper describes a novel approach for two-dimensional (2D EOF analysis based on extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes. The approach was investigated with data obtained from a process-based numerical model, COAST2D, which was applied to an idealized study site with a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The progressive behavior of the spatial and temporal EOF components, related to bathymetric changes over a training period, was demonstrated, and EOF components were extrapolated with combined linear and exponential functions for long-term prediction. The extrapolated EOF components were then used to reconstruct bathymetric changes. The comparison of the reconstructed bathymetric changes with the modeled results from the COAST2D model illustrates that the presented approach can be effective for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes, and extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components yields better results than extrapolating only the temporal EOF component.

  10. Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

    2014-01-01

    Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

  11. Model of local temperature changes in brain upon functional activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Christopher M; Smith, Michael B; Turner, Robert

    2004-12-01

    Experimental results for changes in brain temperature during functional activation show large variations. It is, therefore, desirable to develop a careful numerical model for such changes. Here, a three-dimensional model of temperature in the human head using the bioheat equation, which includes effects of metabolism, perfusion, and thermal conduction, is employed to examine potential temperature changes due to functional activation in brain. It is found that, depending on location in brain and corresponding baseline temperature relative to blood temperature, temperature may increase or decrease on activation and concomitant increases in perfusion and rate of metabolism. Changes in perfusion are generally seen to have a greater effect on temperature than are changes in metabolism, and hence active brain is predicted to approach blood temperature from its initial temperature. All calculated changes in temperature for reasonable physiological parameters have magnitudes <0.12 degrees C and are well within the range reported in recent experimental studies involving human subjects.

  12. Improving active space telescope wavefront control using predictive thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersh-Range, Jessica; Perrin, Marshall D.

    2015-01-01

    Active control algorithms for space telescopes are less mature than those for large ground telescopes due to differences in the wavefront control problems. Active wavefront control for space telescopes at L2, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), requires weighing control costs against the benefits of correcting wavefront perturbations that are a predictable byproduct of the observing schedule, which is known and determined in advance. To improve the control algorithms for these telescopes, we have developed a model that calculates the temperature and wavefront evolution during a hypothetical mission, assuming the dominant wavefront perturbations are due to changes in the spacecraft attitude with respect to the sun. Using this model, we show that the wavefront can be controlled passively by introducing scheduling constraints that limit the allowable attitudes for an observation based on the observation duration and the mean telescope temperature. We also describe the implementation of a predictive controller designed to prevent the wavefront error (WFE) from exceeding a desired threshold. This controller outperforms simpler algorithms even with substantial model error, achieving a lower WFE without requiring significantly more corrections. Consequently, predictive wavefront control based on known spacecraft attitude plans is a promising approach for JWST and other future active space observatories.

  13. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2007-04-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  14. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  15. Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

  16. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function.

  17. Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J.; Bichet, Coraline; Julliard, Romain; Garnier, Stéphane; Lendvai, Ádám Z.; Chastel, Olivier; Sorci, Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites. PMID:23350033

  18. Fragmentation and stability of circadian activity rhythms predict mortality : the rotterdam study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuurbier, Lisette A; Luik, Annemarie I; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; Van Someren, Eus J W; Tiemeier, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Circadian rhythms and sleep patterns change as people age. Little is known about the associations between circadian rhythms and mortality rates. We investigated whether 24-hour activity rhythms and sleep characteristics independently predicted mortality. Actigraphy was used to determine the

  19. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  20. Change in avian abundance predicted from regional forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twedt, Daniel J.; Tirpak, John M.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Thompson, Frank R.; Uihlein, William B.; Fitzgerald, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    An inability to predict population response to future habitat projections is a shortcoming in bird conservation planning. We sought to predict avian response to projections of future forest conditions that were developed from nationwide forest surveys within the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. To accomplish this, we evaluated the historical relationship between silvicolous bird populations and FIA-derived forest conditions within 25 ecoregions that comprise the southeastern United States. We aggregated forest area by forest ownership, forest type, and tree size-class categories in county-based ecoregions for 5 time periods spanning 1963-2008. We assessed the relationship of forest data with contemporaneous indices of abundance for 24 silvicolous bird species that were obtained from Breeding Bird Surveys. Relationships between bird abundance and forest inventory data for 18 species were deemed sufficient as predictive models. We used these empirically derived relationships between regional forest conditions and bird populations to predict relative changes in abundance of these species within ecoregions that are anticipated to coincide with projected changes in forest variables through 2040. Predicted abundances of these 18 species are expected to remain relatively stable in over a quarter (27%) of the ecoregions. However, change in forest area and redistribution of forest types will likely result in changed abundance of some species within many ecosystems. For example, abundances of 11 species, including pine warbler (Dendroica pinus), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), and chuckwills- widow (Caprimulgus carolinensis), are projected to increase within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will decrease. For 6 other species, such as blue-winged warbler (Vermivora pinus), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), we projected abundances will decrease within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will

  1. Spontaneous brain activity predicts learning ability of foreign sounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Sanjuán, Ana; González, Julio; Palomar-García, María-Ángeles; Rodríguez-Pujadas, Aina; Sebastián-Gallés, Núria; Deco, Gustavo; Ávila, César

    2013-05-29

    Can learning capacity of the human brain be predicted from initial spontaneous functional connectivity (FC) between brain areas involved in a task? We combined task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) before and after training with a Hindi dental-retroflex nonnative contrast. Previous fMRI results were replicated, demonstrating that this learning recruited the left insula/frontal operculum and the left superior parietal lobe, among other areas of the brain. Crucially, resting-state FC (rs-FC) between these two areas at pretraining predicted individual differences in learning outcomes after distributed (Experiment 1) and intensive training (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this rs-FC was reduced at posttraining, a change that may also account for learning. Finally, resting-state network analyses showed that the mechanism underlying this reduction of rs-FC was mainly a transfer in intrinsic activity of the left frontal operculum/anterior insula from the left frontoparietal network to the salience network. Thus, rs-FC may contribute to predict learning ability and to understand how learning modifies the functioning of the brain. The discovery of this correspondence between initial spontaneous brain activity in task-related areas and posttraining performance opens new avenues to find predictors of learning capacities in the brain using task-related fMRI and rs-fMRI combined.

  2. Recent and Past Musical Activity Predicts Cognitive Aging Variability: Direct Comparison with Leisure Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda eHanna-Pladdy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age . These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to nonmusical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study examined the type of leisure activity (musical versus other as well as the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (> 10 years and nonmusicians (ages 59-80 were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and life-style activities (AAP. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to explain performance variance in musicians. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal immediate recall, judgment of line orientation (JLO, and Letter Number Sequencing (LNS, but not the AAP. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted JLO in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (< 9 years predicted enhanced LNS in musicians, while analyses for AAP, verbal recall and fluency were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not leisure activity, predicted variability across verbal and visuospatial domains in aging. Early musical acquisition predicted auditory

  3. Climate change and predicted trend of fungal keratitis in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad-Hussein, A; El-Mofty, H M; Hassanien, M A

    2011-06-01

    Rising rates of invasive fungal infections may be linked to global climate change. A study was made of the trend of ophthalmic fungal corneal keratitis in the greater Cairo area of Egypt and its association with climate records during the same period. Data on diagnosed cases of fungal keratitis were collected from records of ophthalmic departments of Cairo University hospital and atmospheric temperature and humidity for the greater Cairo area were obtained from online records. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in the relative frequency of keratomycosis during 1997-2007. The rise correlated significantly with rises n min,mum temperature and the maximum atmospheric humidity in the greater Cairo area over the same period (after exclusion of the effect of the maximum atmos pheric temperature). The predicted increase in keratomycosis up to the year 2030 corresponds to predicted increases in CO2 emissions and surface temperature from climate change models for Egypt.

  4. SIFT: predicting amino acid changes that affect protein function

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Pauline C.; Henikoff, Steven

    2003-01-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) studies and random mutagenesis projects identify amino acid substitutions in protein-coding regions. Each substitution has the potential to affect protein function. SIFT (Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant) is a program that predicts whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function so that users can prioritize substitutions for further study. We have shown that SIFT can distinguish between functionally neutral and deleterious amino acid changes in...

  5. [Evaluation of predictability and refractive changes in pediatric pseudophakia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arámbulo de Borin, O; Paz, M; González, K

    2013-09-01

    Evaluate the predictability of the postoperative refraction and refractive changes in pediatric pseudophakia. Prospective, longitudinal follow-up on patients under the age of 15 years operated on for a cataract with intraocular lens, with 5 continuous years of follow-up. The patients were divided into 4 groups according to age at the time of the surgery: group from 0 to 2 years old, from 3 to 5 years old, from 6 to 8 years old, and 9 years and over. Error prediction and refractive change were studied. Statistical analysis was performed using the Student t and ANOVA test. A total of 60 eyes were included (44 patients). No significant differences were found between the unilateral and bilateral group. The prediction error in the 0 to 2 years group was 1.5±1.8 D, significantly higher than in the other groups (ANOVA P=.01). Refractive change in 5 years of the group of 0 to 2 years was -4.7±3.4 D (ANOVA P=.0002), while in the other groups it was significantly lower, with no differences between them. The 0 to 2 years group was less hyperopic than expected, 100% within the accepted of 2 standard deviations, but with a high variability. The refractive change observed in this group coincides with previous reports that the largest growth and increase in axial length occurs during the first 2 years. The calculation and use of an IOL in children has a better immediate refractive prediction, and at long term in those older than 2 years of age. Copyright © 2011 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that these universal and time-invariant organizing principles can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. The organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  7. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  8. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils...

  9. Recent and past musical activity predicts cognitive aging variability: direct comparison with general lifestyle activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna-Pladdy, Brenda; Gajewski, Byron

    2012-01-01

    Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years) on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age. These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to non-musical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in general lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study controlled for general activity level in evaluating cognition between musicians and nomusicians. Also, the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent) was assessed in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (>10 years) and non-musicians (ages 59-80) were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and general lifestyle activities. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal working memory, verbal immediate recall, visuospatial judgment, and motor dexterity, but did not differ in other general leisure activities. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to determine aspects of musical training predictive of enhanced cognition. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted visuospatial functions in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (memory in musicians, while analyses for other measures were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not general lifestyle activities, predicted variability

  10. Neural response to pictorial health warning labels can predict smoking behavioral change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddle, Philip J; Newman-Norlund, Roger D; Baer, Jessica; Thrasher, James F

    2016-11-01

    In order to improve our understanding of how pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) influence smoking behavior, we examined whether brain activity helps to explain smoking behavior above and beyond self-reported effectiveness of HWLs. We measured the neural response in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and the amygdala while adult smokers viewed HWLs. Two weeks later, participants' self-reported smoking behavior and biomarkers of smoking behavior were reassessed. We compared multiple models predicting change in self-reported smoking behavior (cigarettes per day [CPD]) and change in a biomarkers of smoke exposure (expired carbon monoxide [CO]). Brain activity in the vmPFC and amygdala not only predicted changes in CO, but also accounted for outcome variance above and beyond self-report data. Neural data were most useful in predicting behavioral change as quantified by the objective biomarker (CO). This pattern of activity was significantly modulated by individuals' intention to quit. The finding that both cognitive (vmPFC) and affective (amygdala) brain areas contributed to these models supports the idea that smokers respond to HWLs in a cognitive-affective manner. Based on our findings, researchers may wish to consider using neural data from both cognitive and affective networks when attempting to predict behavioral change in certain populations (e.g. cigarette smokers). © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press.

  11. Caregiver Confidence: Does It Predict Changes in Disability among Elderly Home Care Recipients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lydia W.; McLaughlin, Sara J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the study: The primary aim of this investigation was to determine whether caregiver confidence in their care recipients' functional capabilities predicts changes in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly home care recipients. A secondary aim was to explore how caregiver confidence and care recipient functional…

  12. Predicting active site residue annotations in the Pfam database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Finn Robert D

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Approximately 5% of Pfam families are enzymatic, but only a small fraction of the sequences within these families ( Description We have created a large database of predicted active site residues. On comparing our active site predictions to those found in UniProtKB, Catalytic Site Atlas, PROSITE and MEROPS we find that we make many novel predictions. On investigating the small subset of predictions made by these databases that are not predicted by us, we found these sequences did not meet our strict criteria for prediction. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of our methodology and estimate that only 3% of our predicted sequences are false positives. Conclusion We have predicted 606110 active site residues, of which 94% are not found in UniProtKB, and have increased the active site annotations in Pfam by more than 200 fold. Although implemented for Pfam, the tool we have developed for transferring the data can be applied to any alignment with associated experimental active site data and is available for download. Our active site predictions are re-calculated at each Pfam release to ensure they are comprehensive and up to date. They provide one of the largest available databases of active site annotation.

  13. Fine-grained code changes and bugs: Improving bug prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Giger, Emanuel

    2012-01-01

    Software development and, in particular, software maintenance are time consuming and require detailed knowledge of the structure and the past development activities of a software system. Limited resources and time constraints make the situation even more difficult. Therefore, a significant amount of research effort has been dedicated to learning software prediction models that allow project members to allocate and spend the limited resources efficiently on the (most) critical parts of their s...

  14. Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Ehret

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Throughout its historical development, hydrology as an engineering discipline and earth science has relied strongly on the assumption of long-term stationary boundary conditions and system configurations, which allowed for simplified and sectoral descriptions of the dynamics of hydrological systems. However, in the face of rapid and extensive global changes (of climate, land use etc. which affect all parts of the hydrological cycle, the general validity of this assumption appears doubtful. Likewise, so does the application of hydrological concepts based on stationarity to questions of hydrological change. The reason is that transient system behaviours often develop through feedbacks between the system constituents, and with the environment, generating effects that could often be neglected under stationary conditions. In this context, the aim of this paper is to present and discuss paradigms and theories potentially helpful to advancing hydrology towards the goal of understanding and predicting hydrological systems under change. For the sake of brevity we focus on catchment hydrology. We begin with a discussion of the general nature of explanation in hydrology and briefly review the history of catchment hydrology. We then propose and discuss several perspectives on catchments: as complex dynamical systems, self-organizing systems, co-evolving systems and open dissipative thermodynamic systems. We discuss the benefits of comparative hydrology and of taking an information-theoretic view of catchments, including the flow of information from data to models to predictions. In summary, we suggest that the combination of these closely related perspectives can serve as a paradigm for the further development of catchment hydrology to address predictions under change.

  15. Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.

    2014-08-01

    Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

  16. Predicting future changes in climate and its impact on change in land use: a case study of Cauvery Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyil, Rohith P.; Dhanalakshmi, S.; Goyal, Pramila

    2016-05-01

    The study involves the climate change prediction and its effects over a local sub grid scale of smaller area in Cauvery basin. The consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic activities are reflected in global as well as regional climate in terms of changes in key climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed. The key objectives of the study are to define statistical relationships between different climate parameters, to estimate the sensitivities of climate variables to future climate scenarios by integrating with GIS and to predict the land use/ land cover change under the climate change scenarios. The historical data set was analyzed to predict the climate change and its impact on land use/land cover (LULC) is observed by correlating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for two different times for the same area. It is so evident that due to the rise in temperature there is a considerable change in the land use affecting the vegetation index; increased temperature results in very low NDVI values or vegetation abundance.

  17. Implication of global climate change on the distribution and activity of Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Venette

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and activity of several forest pathogens. Boland et al. (2004) suggested that climate change might affect pathogen establishment, rate of disease progress, and the duration of...

  18. Epigenetic Changes during Hepatic Stellate Cell Activation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke Götze

    Full Text Available Hepatic stellate cells (HSC, which can participate in liver regeneration and fibrogenesis, have recently been identified as liver-resident mesenchymal stem cells. During their activation HSC adopt a myofibroblast-like phenotype accompanied by profound changes in the gene expression profile. DNA methylation changes at single genes have been reported during HSC activation and may participate in the regulation of this process, but comprehensive DNA methylation analyses are still missing. The aim of the present study was to elucidate the role of DNA methylation during in vitro activation of HSC.The analysis of DNA methylation changes by antibody-based assays revealed a strong decrease in the global DNA methylation level during culture-induced activation of HSC. To identify genes which may be regulated by DNA methylation, we performed a genome-wide Methyl-MiniSeq EpiQuest sequencing comparing quiescent and early culture-activated HSC. Approximately 400 differentially methylated regions with a methylation change of at least 20% were identified, showing either hypo- or hypermethylation during activation. Further analysis of selected genes for DNA methylation and expression were performed revealing a good correlation between DNA methylation changes and gene expression. Furthermore, global DNA demethylation during HSC activation was investigated by 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine assay and L-mimosine treatment showing that demethylation was independent of DNA synthesis and thereby excluding a passive DNA demethylation mechanism.In summary, in vitro activation of HSC initiated strong DNA methylation changes, which were associated with gene regulation. These results indicate that epigenetic mechanisms are important for the control of early HSC activation. Furthermore, the data show that global DNA demethylation during activation is based on an active DNA demethylation mechanism.

  19. Prediction limits of mobile phone activity modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondor, Dániel; Grauwin, Sebastian; Kallus, Zsófia; Gódor, István; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Ratti, Carlo

    2017-02-01

    Thanks to their widespread usage, mobile devices have become one of the main sensors of human behaviour and digital traces left behind can be used as a proxy to study urban environments. Exploring the nature of the spatio-temporal patterns of mobile phone activity could thus be a crucial step towards understanding the full spectrum of human activities. Using 10 months of mobile phone records from Greater London resolved in both space and time, we investigate the regularity of human telecommunication activity on urban scales. We evaluate several options for decomposing activity timelines into typical and residual patterns, accounting for the strong periodic and seasonal components. We carry out our analysis on various spatial scales, showing that regularity increases as we look at aggregated activity in larger spatial units with more activity in them. We examine the statistical properties of the residuals and show that it can be explained by noise and specific outliers. Also, we look at sources of deviations from the general trends, which we find to be explainable based on knowledge of the city structure and places of attractions. We show examples how some of the outliers can be related to external factors such as specific social events.

  20. Decreased dopamine activity predicts relapse in methamphetamine abusers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang G. J.; Wang, G.-J.; Smith, L.; Volkow, N.D.; Telang, F.; Logan, J.; Tomasi, D.; Wong, C.T.; Hoffman, W.; Jayne, M.; Alia-Klein, N.; Thanos, P.; Fowler, J.S.

    2011-01-20

    Studies in methamphetamine (METH) abusers showed that the decreases in brain dopamine (DA) function might recover with protracted detoxification. However, the extent to which striatal DA function in METH predicts recovery has not been evaluated. Here we assessed whether striatal DA activity in METH abusers is associated with clinical outcomes. Brain DA D2 receptor (D2R) availability was measured with positron emission tomography and [{sup 11}C]raclopride in 16 METH abusers, both after placebo and after challenge with 60 mg oral methylphenidate (MPH) (to measure DA release) to assess whether it predicted clinical outcomes. For this purpose, METH abusers were tested within 6 months of last METH use and then followed up for 9 months of abstinence. In parallel, 15 healthy controls were tested. METH abusers had lower D2R availability in caudate than in controls. Both METH abusers and controls showed decreased striatal D2R availability after MPH and these decreases were smaller in METH than in controls in left putamen. The six METH abusers who relapsed during the follow-up period had lower D2R availability in dorsal striatum than in controls, and had no D2R changes after MPH challenge. The 10 METH abusers who completed detoxification did not differ from controls neither in striatal D2R availability nor in MPH-induced striatal DA changes. These results provide preliminary evidence that low striatal DA function in METH abusers is associated with a greater likelihood of relapse during treatment. Detection of the extent of DA dysfunction may be helpful in predicting therapeutic outcomes.

  1. Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

    2006-01-01

    Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

  2. An epigenetic signature in peripheral blood predicts active ovarian cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew E Teschendorff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that DNA methylation (DNAm markers in peripheral blood may hold promise as diagnostic or early detection/risk markers for epithelial cancers. However, to date no study has evaluated the diagnostic and predictive potential of such markers in a large case control cohort and on a genome-wide basis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By performing genome-wide DNAm profiling of a large ovarian cancer case control cohort, we here demonstrate that active ovarian cancer has a significant impact on the DNAm pattern in peripheral blood. Specifically, by measuring the methylation levels of over 27,000 CpGs in blood cells from 148 healthy individuals and 113 age-matched pre-treatment ovarian cancer cases, we derive a DNAm signature that can predict the presence of active ovarian cancer in blind test sets with an AUC of 0.8 (95% CI (0.74-0.87. We further validate our findings in another independent set of 122 post-treatment cases (AUC = 0.76 (0.72-0.81. In addition, we provide evidence for a significant number of candidate risk or early detection markers for ovarian cancer. Furthermore, by comparing the pattern of methylation with gene expression data from major blood cell types, we here demonstrate that age and cancer elicit common changes in the composition of peripheral blood, with a myeloid skewing that increases with age and which is further aggravated in the presence of ovarian cancer. Finally, we show that most cancer and age associated methylation variability is found at CpGs located outside of CpG islands. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results underscore the potential of DNAm profiling in peripheral blood as a tool for detection or risk-prediction of epithelial cancers, and warrants further in-depth and higher CpG coverage studies to further elucidate this role.

  3. Predictive Analysis of Landslide Activity Using Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markuzon, N.; Regan, J.; Slesnick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Landslides are historically one of the most damaging geohazard phenomena in terms of death tolls and socio-economic losses. Therefore, understanding the underlying causes of landslides and how environmental phenomena affect their frequency and severity is of critical importance. Of specific importance for mitigating future damage is increasing our understanding of how climate change will affect landslide severity, occurrence rates, and damage. We are developing data driven models aimed at predicting landslide activity. The models learn multi-dimensional weather and geophysical patterns associated with historical landslides and estimate location-dependent probabilities for landslides under current or future weather and geophysical conditions. Our approach uses machine learning algorithms capable of determining non-linear associations between dependent variables and landslide occurrence without requiring detailed knowledge of geomorphology. Our primary goal in year one of the project is to evaluate the predictive capabilities of data mining models in application to landslide activity, and to analyze if the approach will discover previously unknown variables and/or relationships important to landslide occurrence, frequency or severity. The models include remote sensing and ground-based data, including weather, landcover, slope, elevation and drainage information as well as urbanization data. The historical landslide dataset we used to build our preliminary models was compiled from City of Seattle landslide files, United States Geological Survey reports, newspaper articles, and a verified subset of the Seattle Landslide Database that consists of all reported landslides within Seattle, WA, between 1948 and 1999. Most of the landslides analyzed to-date are shallow. Using statistical analysis and unsupervised clustering methods we have thus far identified subsets of weather conditions that lead to a significantly higher landslide probability, and have developed

  4. SIFT: Predicting amino acid changes that affect protein function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Pauline C; Henikoff, Steven

    2003-07-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) studies and random mutagenesis projects identify amino acid substitutions in protein-coding regions. Each substitution has the potential to affect protein function. SIFT (Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant) is a program that predicts whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function so that users can prioritize substitutions for further study. We have shown that SIFT can distinguish between functionally neutral and deleterious amino acid changes in mutagenesis studies and on human polymorphisms. SIFT is available at http://blocks.fhcrc.org/sift/SIFT.html.

  5. Predicting the unpredictable: Critical analysis and practical implications of predictive anticipatory activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia eMossbridge

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A recent meta-analysis of experiments from seven independent laboratories (n=26 published since 1978 indicates that the human body can apparently detect randomly delivered stimuli occurring 1-10 seconds in the future (Mossbridge, Tressoldi, & Utts, 2012. The key observation in these studies is that human physiology appears to be able to distinguish between unpredictable dichotomous future stimuli, such as emotional vs. neutral images or sound vs. silence. This phenomenon has been called presentiment (as in feeling the future. In this paper we call it predictive anticipatory activity or PAA. The phenomenon is predictive because it can distinguish between upcoming stimuli; it is anticipatory because the physiological changes occur before a future event; and it is an activity because it involves changes in the cardiopulmonary, skin, and/or nervous systems. PAA is an unconscious phenomenon that seems to be a time-reversed reflection of the usual physiological response to a stimulus. It appears to resemble precognition (consciously knowing something is going to happen before it does, but PAA specifically refers to unconscious physiological reactions as opposed to conscious premonitions. Though it is possible that PAA underlies the conscious experience of precognition, experiments testing this idea have not produced clear results. The first part of this paper reviews the evidence for PAA and examines the two most difficult challenges for obtaining valid evidence for it: expectation bias and multiple analyses. The second part speculates on possible mechanisms and the theoretical implications of PAA for understanding physiology and consciousness. The third part examines potential practical applications.

  6. Predicting mining activity with parallel genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaie, S.; Leigh, R.; Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.; Beyer, H.G.; O'Reilly, U.M.; Banzhaf, Arnold D.; Blum, W.; Bonabeau, C.; Cantu-Paz, E.W.; ,; ,

    2005-01-01

    We explore several different techniques in our quest to improve the overall model performance of a genetic algorithm calibrated probabilistic cellular automata. We use the Kappa statistic to measure correlation between ground truth data and data predicted by the model. Within the genetic algorithm, we introduce a new evaluation function sensitive to spatial correctness and we explore the idea of evolving different rule parameters for different subregions of the land. We reduce the time required to run a simulation from 6 hours to 10 minutes by parallelizing the code and employing a 10-node cluster. Our empirical results suggest that using the spatially sensitive evaluation function does indeed improve the performance of the model and our preliminary results also show that evolving different rule parameters for different regions tends to improve overall model performance. Copyright 2005 ACM.

  7. Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food......, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine...... can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been...

  8. Measuring Active Learning to Predict Course Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, John E.; Ku, Heng-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated whether active learning within computer-based training courses can be measured and whether it serves as a predictor of learner-perceived course quality. A major corporation participated in this research, providing access to internal employee training courses, training representatives, and historical course evaluation data.…

  9. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman O Oloritun

    Full Text Available Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and R(2. This study found a model that explains 68% (p<0.0001 of the variation in change in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as

  10. Institutional Constraints, Legislative Activism and Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a study of how institutional constraints affect legislative activism and how legislative activism in turn affects policy change through an analysis of the European Union's legislative process. The argument revolves around the key role of the European Commission in advancing ...

  11. Diversity experiences predict changes in attitudes toward affirmative action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aberson, Christopher L

    2007-10-01

    The current study examined the role of diversity experiences in promoting changes in attitudes toward affirmative action (AA). Using longitudinal data from a survey of over 1000 college students at admission and in their fourth year, results demonstrated that participation in diversity-related campus activities related to positive changes in attitudes toward affirmative action. This result was consistent across samples of White, African American, and Asian American students. Positive changes in attitudes persisted despite statistical controls for established predictors of attitudes toward AA such as merit and prevalence of discrimination beliefs, and individual-level characteristics such as experiences of discrimination and political liberalism. I discuss the relevance of this finding to the AA literature and to changing attitudes toward AA.

  12. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutti, R.

    2009-12-01

    As computers get faster and our understanding of the climate system improves, climate models to predict the future are getting more complex by including more and more processes, and they are run at higher and higher resolution to resolve more of the small scale processes. As a result, some of the simulated features and structures, e.g. ocean eddies or tropical cyclones look surprisingly real. But are these deceptive? A pattern can look perfectly real but be in the wrong place. So can the current global models really provide the kind of information on local scales and on the quantities (e.g. extreme events) that the decision maker would need to know to invest for example in adaptation? A closer look indicates that evaluating skill of climate models and quantifying uncertainties in predictions is very difficult. This presentation shows that while models are improving in simulating the climate features we observe (e.g. the present day mean state, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation), the spread from multiple models in predicting future changes is often not decreasing. The main problem is that (unlike with weather forecasts for example) we cannot evaluate the model on a prediction (for example for the year 2100) and we have to use the present, or past changes as metrics of skills. But there are infinite ways of testing a model, and many metrics used to test models do not clearly relate to the prediction. Therefore there is little agreement in the community on metrics to separate ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models, and there is a concern that model development, evaluation and posterior weighting or ranking of models are all using the same datasets. While models are continuously improving in representing what we believe to be the key processes, many models also share ideas, parameterizations or even pieces of model code. The current models can therefore not be considered independent. Robustness of a model simulated result is often interpreted as increasing the confidence

  13. Location and Pressures Change Prediction of Bromo Volcano Magma Chamber Using Inversion Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumalasari, Ratih; Srigutomo, Wahyu

    2016-08-01

    Bromo volcano is one of active volcanoes in Indonesia. It has erupted at least 50 times since 1775 and has been monitored by Global Positioning System (GPS) since 1989. We applied the Levenberg-Marquardt inversion scheme to estimate the physical parameters contributing to the surface deformation. Physical parameters obtained by the inversion scheme such as magma chamber location and volume change are useful in monitoring and predicting the activity of Bromo volcano. From our calculation it is revealed that the depth of the magma chamber d = 6307.6 m, radius of magma chamber α = 1098.6 m and pressure change ΔP ≈ 1.0 MPa.

  14. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oloritun, Rahman O; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Moturu, Sai; Madan, Anmol; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Khayal, Inas

    2013-01-01

    Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and R(2). This study found a model that explains 68% (pBMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as close friends.

  15. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeate...

  16. Ionic changes during experimentally induced seizure activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lux, H D; Heinemann, U

    1978-01-01

    Changes in intra- and extracellular ionic activity and their relation to generation and termination of seizure phenomena can be studied with the help of ion-selective microelectrodes. Transient changes in extracellular potassium activity (aK) of the cortex regularly accompany paroxysmal activity induced by electrical stimulation and pentylenetetrazol injections or occur within active penicillin and aluminum foci. A rise of aK from baseline levels of about 3 mmoles/l up to ceiling levels of 8--12 mmoles/l, followed by subnormal K activity, is typically found during seizure discharge. Extracellular K accumulation during seizures facilitates the spread into extrafocal regions. Ceiling levels of extracellular aK are characterized by pronounced K reabsorption which is probably a limiting mechanism for the rise in extracellular aK. It may be a consequence of a simultaneous rise in intracellular Na activity that an electrogenic Na--K exchange process is involved in the termination of ictal activity. Seizures are also accompanied by significant reductions in extracellular Ca2+ activity (aCa) to as low as 0.7 mmoles/l (resting aCa 1.25 mmoles/l). There is no critical level of lowered aCa at which a seizure ultimately results. However, unlike changes in aK reductions in aCa can precede ictal activity. Thus, a fall of aCa occurs before the onset of paroxysmal periods during cyclical spike driving in a penicillin focus and before seizures induced by pentylenetetrazol. Ca2+-dependent mechanisms may contribute to seizure generation. In addition to changes in aK and aCa, intracellular chloride activity (aCl) can increase during seizure activity, as a result of an impaired chloride extrusion mechanism, which would lead to a reduced efficacy of inhibitory synaptic transmission and, therefore, to facilitation of seizure generation.

  17. Predicting implementation from organizational readiness for change: a study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfrich, Christian D; Blevins, Dean; Smith, Jeffrey L; Kelly, P Adam; Hogan, Timothy P; Hagedorn, Hildi; Dubbert, Patricia M; Sales, Anne E

    2011-07-22

    There is widespread interest in measuring organizational readiness to implement evidence-based practices in clinical care. However, there are a number of challenges to validating organizational measures, including inferential bias arising from the halo effect and method bias - two threats to validity that, while well-documented by organizational scholars, are often ignored in health services research. We describe a protocol to comprehensively assess the psychometric properties of a previously developed survey, the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment. Our objective is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the psychometric properties of the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment incorporating methods specifically to address threats from halo effect and method bias. We will conduct three sets of analyses using longitudinal, secondary data from four partner projects, each testing interventions to improve the implementation of an evidence-based clinical practice. Partner projects field the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment at baseline (n = 208 respondents; 53 facilities), and prospectively assesses the degree to which the evidence-based practice is implemented. We will conduct predictive and concurrent validities using hierarchical linear modeling and multivariate regression, respectively. For predictive validity, the outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in the use of the evidence-based practice. We will use intra-class correlations derived from hierarchical linear models to assess inter-rater reliability. Two partner projects will also field measures of job satisfaction for convergent and discriminant validity analyses, and will field Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment measures at follow-up for concurrent validity (n = 158 respondents; 33 facilities). Convergent and discriminant validities will test associations between organizational readiness and different aspects of job satisfaction: satisfaction with leadership

  18. Predicting implementation from organizational readiness for change: a study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly P Adam

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is widespread interest in measuring organizational readiness to implement evidence-based practices in clinical care. However, there are a number of challenges to validating organizational measures, including inferential bias arising from the halo effect and method bias - two threats to validity that, while well-documented by organizational scholars, are often ignored in health services research. We describe a protocol to comprehensively assess the psychometric properties of a previously developed survey, the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment. Objectives Our objective is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the psychometric properties of the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment incorporating methods specifically to address threats from halo effect and method bias. Methods and Design We will conduct three sets of analyses using longitudinal, secondary data from four partner projects, each testing interventions to improve the implementation of an evidence-based clinical practice. Partner projects field the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment at baseline (n = 208 respondents; 53 facilities, and prospectively assesses the degree to which the evidence-based practice is implemented. We will conduct predictive and concurrent validities using hierarchical linear modeling and multivariate regression, respectively. For predictive validity, the outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in the use of the evidence-based practice. We will use intra-class correlations derived from hierarchical linear models to assess inter-rater reliability. Two partner projects will also field measures of job satisfaction for convergent and discriminant validity analyses, and will field Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment measures at follow-up for concurrent validity (n = 158 respondents; 33 facilities. Convergent and discriminant validities will test associations between organizational readiness and

  19. Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross S. Davidson

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

  20. Cardiovascular change during encoding predicts the nonconscious mere exposure effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Sandra L; Toscano, William B; Cowings, Patricia S; Gabrieli, John D E

    2014-01-01

    These studies examined memory encoding to determine whether the mere exposure effect could be categorized as a form of conceptual or perceptual implicit priming and, if it was not conceptual or perceptual, whether cardiovascular psychophysiology could reveal its nature. Experiment 1 examined the effects of study phase level of processing on recognition, the mere exposure effect, and word identification implicit priming. Deep relative to shallow processing improved recognition but did not influence the mere exposure effect for nonwords or word identification implicit priming for words. Experiments 2 and 3 examined the effect of study-test changes in font and orientation, respectively, on the mere exposure effect and word identification implicit priming. Different study-test font and orientation reduced word identification implicit priming but had no influence on the mere exposure effect. Experiments 4 and 5 developed and used, respectively, a cardiovascular psychophysiological implicit priming paradigm to examine whether stimulus-specific cardiovascular reactivity at study predicted the mere exposure effect at test. Blood volume pulse change at study was significantly greater for nonwords that were later preferred than for nonwords that were not preferred at test. There was no difference in blood volume pulse change for words at study that were later either identified or not identified at test. Fluency effects, at encoding or retrieval, are an unlikely explanation for these behavioral and cardiovascular findings. The relation of blood volume pulse to affect suggests that an affective process that is not conceptual or perceptual contributes to the mere exposure effect.

  1. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D.; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H. E.

    2017-01-01

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. PMID:28223487

  2. Transient Response of Aerobic and Anoxic Activated Sludge Activities to Sudden Substrate Concentration Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, G.; Vanrolleghem, P.A.; Gernaey, Krist

    2004-01-01

    process. That transient phenomenon exhibits itself immediately upon addition of a substrate source to an endogenously respiring activated sludge sample and it usually takes a few minutes until the activated sludge reaches its maximum possible rate under given environmental conditions. This discrepancy......The state-of-the-art understanding of activated sludge processes as summarized in activated sludge models (ASMs) predicts an instantaneous increase in the biomass activity (which is measured, e.g., by the corresponding respiration rate OUR, NUR, etc.) under sudden substrate concentration changes...... with fast-alternating process conditions, although such studies are beyond the scope of this report. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

  3. Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Nay, John J; Gilligan, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders' beliefs about the cause of global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge quickly toward believing the "true" climate model, suggesting that a climate market could be useful for building public consensus.

  4. Abrupt Climate Change: A Magnetic Coupling Model (MCM) Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, John T. A.

    2002-04-01

    Recent findings [p.8 ISBN 0-309-07434-7] show major climate changes often occur in a decade. This is another of many MCM predictions (see refs). All of them tested from 1968 to date have been proven, including: Global warming is real and driven by fossil fuel (1970's); This CO2 forcing has ended Major Ice Ages; All Major and Minor Ice Ages are caused by decreases in existing (primarily subvisible and other thin, especially newly forming) cirrus at mid to high geomagnetic latitudes; Ionization of the atmosphere near 250 grams per square cm depth by GCR (galactic cosmic ray protons circa 1 gev) cause cirrus depression; Ice cores and other proxy records show ice ages exhibit increased beryllium-10, carbon-14, etc, due to GCR. As noted in the Mar and Apr abstracts, the MCM predictable climate ended in 2000, following over 30 yrs of our ignoring its easily testable warnings re fossil fuel. Hence, we now face the somber question of whether human intervention is still possible in a CO2 Runaway and sea level rise that may be on a decade time scale. [Ely, Session A8, APS Mtg, Seattle, Mar 01; Ely, Session H14.013, APS Mtg, Apr 01; MCM pub list http://faculty.washington.edu/ely/MCM.html

  5. Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Adaptation under Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Z.; Ma, Y.; van der Velde, R.; Dente, L.; Wang, L.; Timmermans, J.; Menenti, M.; Sobrino, J.; Li, Z.-L.; Verhoef, W.; Jia, L.; Wen, J.; He, Y.; Wan, L.; Liu, Q. H.; Yu, Q.; Li, X.; Zhong, L.; Zeng, Y.; Tian, X.; Li, L.; Qin, C.; Timmermans, W.; van Helvoirt, M.; van der Tol, C.; Salama, M. S.; Vekerdy, Z.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a quantitative and operational system for nationwide drought monitoring and drought impact assessment for application in agriculture and water resources and environment in China using ESA, Chinese and other relevant satellite data as major data source in combination with other data (e.g. meteorological and drought statistics, etc.). An extension to drought prediction and adaptation to climate change had been made compared to the Dragon I drought monitoring project. In detail the project generated: (1) a preoperational real time drought monitoring and prediction system, (2) improved understanding of land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions over different terrains (e.g. agriculture land, forest, Gobi desert, high plateau, polar environment), (3) algorithms for estimation of land surface parameters and heat fluxes, (4) assessment of economic loss caused by drought and adaptation measures under climatic change, (5) training of young scientists in the area of water, climate and environment. An operational system will be established by the China Meteorological Administration’s National Meteorological Center (CMA/NMC) to provide information concerning the drought evolution situation and to support drought relief decision-making. We report on advances in retrievals of soil moisture using in-situ observations, satellite sensors and numerical modeling. The accuracy of available soil moisture products are assessed using in-situ data collected in the soil moisture monitoring networks developed for this and other projects. The use of these satellite retrievals in drought monitoring is demonstrated by analyzing the droughts in China and the generated drought assessment indices are compared to current practice by CMA.

  6. Predicting the activation states of the muscles governing upper esophageal sphincter relaxation and opening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omari, Taher I; Jones, Corinne A; Hammer, Michael J; Cock, Charles; Dinning, Philip; Wiklendt, Lukasz; Costa, Marcello; McCulloch, Timothy M

    2016-03-15

    The swallowing muscles that influence upper esophageal sphincter (UES) opening are centrally controlled and modulated by sensory information. Activation and deactivation of neural inputs to these muscles, including the intrinsic cricopharyngeus (CP) and extrinsic submental (SM) muscles, results in their mechanical activation or deactivation, which changes the diameter of the lumen, alters the intraluminal pressure, and ultimately reduces or promotes flow of content. By measuring the changes in diameter, using intraluminal impedance, and the concurrent changes in intraluminal pressure, it is possible to determine when the muscles are passively or actively relaxing or contracting. From these "mechanical states" of the muscle, the neural inputs driving the specific motor behaviors of the UES can be inferred. In this study we compared predictions of UES mechanical states directly with the activity measured by electromyography (EMG). In eight subjects, pharyngeal pressure and impedance were recorded in parallel with CP- and SM-EMG activity. UES pressure and impedance swallow profiles correlated with the CP-EMG and SM-EMG recordings, respectively. Eight UES muscle states were determined by using the gradient of pressure and impedance with respect to time. Guided by the level and gradient change of EMG activity, mechanical states successfully predicted the activity of the CP muscle and SM muscle independently. Mechanical state predictions revealed patterns consistent with the known neural inputs activating the different muscles during swallowing. Derivation of "activation state" maps may allow better physiological and pathophysiological interpretations of UES function.

  7. Selection, adaptation, and predictive information in changing environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feltgen, Quentin; Nemenman, Ilya

    2014-03-01

    Adaptation by means of natural selection is a key concept in evolutionary biology. Individuals better matched to the surrounding environment outcompete the others. This increases the fraction of the better adapted individuals in the population, and hence increases its collective fitness. Adaptation is also prominent on the physiological scale in neuroscience and cell biology. There each individual infers properties of the environment and changes to become individually better, improving the overall population as well. Traditionally, these two notions of adaption have been considered distinct. Here we argue that both types of adaptation result in the same population growth in a broad class of analytically tractable population dynamics models in temporally changing environments. In particular, both types of adaptation lead to subextensive corrections to the population growth rates. These corrections are nearly universal and are equal to the predictive information in the environment time series, which is also the characterization of the time series complexity. This work has been supported by the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

  8. Soda consumption during ad libitum food intake predicts weight change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundrick, Sarah C; Thearle, Marie S; Venti, Colleen A; Krakoff, Jonathan; Votruba, Susanne B

    2014-03-01

    Soda consumption may contribute to weight gain over time. Objective data were used to determine whether soda consumption predicts weight gain or changes in glucose regulation over time. Subjects without diabetes (128 men, 75 women; mean age 34.3±8.9 years; mean body mass index 32.5±7.4; mean percentage body fat 31.6%±8.6%) self-selected their food from an ad libitum vending machine system for 3 days. Mean daily energy intake was calculated from food weight. Energy consumed from soda was recorded as were food choices that were low in fat (30%). Food choices were expressed as percentage of daily energy intake. A subset of 85 subjects had measurement of follow-up weights and oral glucose tolerance (57 men, 28 women; mean follow-up time=2.5±2.1 years, range 6 months to 9.9 years). Energy consumed from soda was negatively related to age (r=-0.27, P=0.0001) and choosing low-fat foods (r=-0.35, Psoda correlated with change in weight (r=0.21, P=0.04). This relationship was unchanged after adjusting for follow-up time and initial weight. Soda consumption is a marker for excess energy consumption and is associated with weight gain.

  9. Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis-Miguel Chevin

    Full Text Available Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

  10. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  11. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  12. Dynamic Predictions of Semi-Arid Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Wittig, T. A.

    2011-12-01

    Savannas make up about 18% of the global landmass and contain about 22% of the world's population (Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2008). They are unique ecosystems in that they consist of both grass and trees. Depending on the land use, amount of precipitation, herbivory, and fire frequency, either trees or grasses can be more prevalent than the other (Sankaran et al., 2005). Savannas in sub-Saharan Africa are usually considered water-limited ecosystems due to the seasonal rainfall. It has been shown that the vegetation responds on a short timescale to the rainfall (Scanlon et al, 2002). Therefore, savannas are foreseen as vulnerable ecosystems to future changes in the land use and climate change (Sankaran et al, 2005). The goal of this research is to quantify the vulnerability of this ecosystem by projecting future changes in the savanna structure due to land use and climate change through the use of a dynamic vegetation model. This research will provide a better understanding of the relationship between precipitation and vegetation in savannas through the use of a Vegetation Dynamics Model developed to predict surface water fluxes and vegetation dynamics in water-limited ecosystems (Williams and Albertson, 2005). In this project, it will be used to model leaf area index (LAI) for point locations within sub-Saharan Africa between Kenya and Botswana with a range of annual rainfall and savanna type. With this model, future projections are developed for what can be anticipated in the future for the savanna structure based on three climate change scenarios; (1) decreased depth, (2) decreased frequency, and (3) decreased wet season length. The effect of the climate change scenarios on the plant water stress and plant water uptake will be analyzed in order to understand the dynamic effects of precipitation on vegetation. Therefore, this will allow conclusions to be drawn about how mean precipitation and a changing climate effect the sensitivity of savanna vegetation. It is

  13. Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, M.J., E-mail: michael.morton@astrazeneca.com [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Bridgland-Taylor, M. [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Pollard, C.E.; Bowes, J.; Valentin, J.-P. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom)

    2014-09-01

    Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity in the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility.

  14. Changes in Predicted Muscle Coordination with Subject-Specific Muscle Parameters for Individuals after Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Knarr

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Muscle weakness is commonly seen in individuals after stroke, characterized by lower forces during a maximal volitional contraction. Accurate quantification of muscle weakness is paramount when evaluating individual performance and response to after stroke rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of subject-specific muscle force and activation deficits on predicted muscle coordination when using musculoskeletal models for individuals after stroke. Maximum force generating ability and central activation ratio of the paretic plantar flexors, dorsiflexors, and quadriceps muscle groups were obtained using burst superimposition for four individuals after stroke with a range of walking speeds. Two models were created per subject: one with generic and one with subject-specific activation and maximum isometric force parameters. The inclusion of subject-specific muscle data resulted in changes in the model-predicted muscle forces and activations which agree with previously reported compensation patterns and match more closely the timing of electromyography for the plantar flexor and hamstring muscles. This was the first study to create musculoskeletal simulations of individuals after stroke with subject-specific muscle force and activation data. The results of this study suggest that subject-specific muscle force and activation data enhance the ability of musculoskeletal simulations to accurately predict muscle coordination in individuals after stroke.

  15. Predicted changes in energy demands for heating and cooling due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolinar, Mojca; Vidrih, Boris; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Medved, Sašo

    In the last 3 years in Slovenia we experienced extremely hot summers and demand for cooling the buildings have risen significantly. Since climate change scenarios predict higher temperatures for the whole country and for all seasons, we expect that energy demand for heating would decrease while demand for cooling would increase. An analysis for building with permitted energy demand and for low-energy demand building in two typical urban climates in Slovenia was performed. The transient systems simulation program (TRNSYS) was used for simulation of the indoor conditions and the energy use for heating and cooling. Climate change scenarios were presented in form of “future” Test Reference Years (TRY). The time series of hourly data for all meteorological variables for different scenarios were chosen from actual measurements, using the method of highest likelihood. The climate change scenarios predicted temperature rise (+1 °C and +3 °C) and solar radiation increase (+3% and +6%). With the selection of these scenarios we covered the spectra of possible predicted climate changes in Slovenia. The results show that energy use for heating would decrease from 16% to 25% (depends on the intensity of warming) in subalpine region, while in Mediterranean region the rate of change would not be significant. In summer time we would need up to six times more energy for cooling in subalpine region and approximately two times more in Mediterranean region. low-energy building proved to be very economical in wintertime while on average higher energy consumption for cooling is expected in those buildings in summertime. In case of significant warmer and more solar energy intensive climate, the good isolated buildings are more efficient than standard buildings. TRY proved not to be efficient for studying extreme conditions like installed power of the cooling system.

  16. Prediction of PKCθ Inhibitory Activity Using the Random Forest Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuwei Zhang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to the prediction of a series of 208 structurally diverse PKCθ inhibitors using the Random Forest (RF based on the Mold2 molecular descriptors. The RF model was established and identified as a robust predictor of the experimental pIC50 values, producing good external R2pred of 0.72, a standard error of prediction (SEP of 0.45, for an external prediction set of 51 inhibitors which were not used in the development of QSAR models. By using the RF built-in measure of the relative importance of the descriptors, an important predictor—the number of group donor atoms for H-bonds (with N and O―has been identified to play a crucial role in PKCθ inhibitory activity. We hope that the developed RF model will be helpful in the screening and prediction of novel unknown PKCθ inhibitory activity.

  17. The inventory-based approach for prediction of SOC change following land use change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Wesemael B.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes and illustrates an approach to predict soil organic carbon (SOC change in time after land use change as derived from SOC differences in space. The approach requires the availability of a SOC inventory for spatially explicit combinations of soil and land use type, further termed landscape units (LSU. SOC of LSU with equal soil type but different land use type are compared and the observed differences in SOC are interpreted as the expected SOC change after the corresponding land use change. From a confrontation with time series of agro-statistical data on crop and grassland areas and on animal manure production, we conclude that the approach is a low-cost alternative for more complex methods like multitemporal assessments and modelling, provided that (i an inventory reflecting current management and climate conditions and (ii additional information on the extent and type of recent land use changes are available. Examples of land use and land management changes are discussed, such as grassland – cropland conversions, the conversion of permanent to temporary grassland, or changes in manure application.

  18. External validation and prediction employing the predictive squared correlation coefficient test set activity mean vs training set activity mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüürmann, Gerrit; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Chen, Jingwen; Wang, Bin; Kühne, Ralph

    2008-11-01

    The external prediction capability of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models is often quantified using the predictive squared correlation coefficient, q (2). This index relates the predictive residual sum of squares, PRESS, to the activity sum of squares, SS, without postprocessing of the model output, the latter of which is automatically done when calculating the conventional squared correlation coefficient, r (2). According to the current OECD guidelines, q (2) for external validation should be calculated with SS referring to the training set activity mean. Our present findings including a mathematical proof demonstrate that this approach yields a systematic overestimation of the prediction capability that is triggered by the difference between the training and test set activity means. Example calculations with three regression models and data sets taken from literature show further that for external test sets, q (2) based on the training set activity mean may become even larger than r (2). As a consequence, we suggest to always use the test set activity mean when quantifying the external prediction capability through q (2) and to revise the respective OECD guidance document accordingly. The discussion includes a comparison between r (2) and q (2) value ranges and the q (2) statistics for cross-validation.

  19. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

  20. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh;

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty...... outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeated until the fault is detected by a passive diagnoser. It is demonstrated how the generated excitation signal...

  1. Can tail damage outbreaks in the pig be predicted by behavioural change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Mona Lilian Vestbjerg; Andersen, Heidi Mai-Lis; Pedersen, Lene Juul

    2016-01-01

    damage outbreak. Behaviours found to change prior to an outbreak include increased activity level, increased performance of enrichment object manipulation, and a changed proportion of tail posture with more tails between the legs. Monitoring these types of behaviours is also discussed for the purpose...... preventive methods. One strategy is the surveillance of the pigs' behaviour for known preceding indicators of tail damage, which makes it possible to predict a tail damage outbreak and prevent it in proper time. This review discusses the existing literature on behavioural changes observed prior to a tail...... of developing an automatic warning system for tail damage outbreaks, with activity level showing promising results for being monitored automatically. Encouraging results have been found so far for the development of an automatic warning system; however, there is a need for further investigation and development...

  2. Climate Change Policies for the XXIst Century: Mechanisms, Predictions and Recommendations

    CERN Document Server

    Khmelinskii, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW-motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate...

  3. PASS-GP: Predictive active set selection for Gaussian processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2010-01-01

    to the active set selection strategy and marginal likelihood optimization on the active set. We make extensive tests on the USPS and MNIST digit classification databases with and without incorporating invariances, demonstrating that we can get state-of-the-art results (e.g.0.86% error on MNIST) with reasonable......We propose a new approximation method for Gaussian process (GP) learning for large data sets that combines inline active set selection with hyperparameter optimization. The predictive probability of the label is used for ranking the data points. We use the leave-one-out predictive probability...... available in GPs to make a common ranking for both active and inactive points, allowing points to be removed again from the active set. This is important for keeping the complexity down and at the same time focusing on points close to the decision boundary. We lend both theoretical and empirical support...

  4. How well do cognitive and environmental variables predict active commuting?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godin Gaston

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, there has been growing interest in theoretical studies integrating cognitions and environmental variables in the prediction of behaviour related to the obesity epidemic. This is the approach adopted in the present study in reference to the theory of planned behaviour. More precisely, the aim of this study was to determine the contribution of cognitive and environmental variables in the prediction of active commuting to get to and from work or school. Methods A prospective study was carried out with 130 undergraduate and graduate students (93 females; 37 males. Environmental, cognitive and socio-demographic variables were evaluated at baseline by questionnaire. Two weeks later, active commuting (walking/bicycling to get to and from work or school was self-reported by questionnaire. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to predict intention and behaviour. Results The model predicting behaviour based on cognitive variables explained more variance than the model based on environmental variables (37.4% versus 26.8%; Z = 3.86, p p p Conclusion The results showed that cognitive variables play a more important role than environmental variables in predicting and explaining active commuting. When environmental variables were significant, they were mediated by cognitive variables. Therefore, individual cognitions should remain one of the main focuses of interventions promoting active commuting among undergraduate and graduate students.

  5. A neural network model for olfactory glomerular activity prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Zu; Tsuji, Toshio; Takiguchi, Noboru; Ohtake, Hisao

    2012-12-01

    Recently, the importance of odors and methods for their evaluation have seen increased emphasis, especially in the fragrance and food industries. Although odors can be characterized by their odorant components, their chemical information cannot be directly related to the flavors we perceive. Biological research has revealed that neuronal activity related to glomeruli (which form part of the olfactory system) is closely connected to odor qualities. Here we report on a neural network model of the olfactory system that can predict glomerular activity from odorant molecule structures. We also report on the learning and prediction ability of the proposed model.

  6. Prediction of physical activity intention and behavior in a longitudinal sample of adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raudsepp, Lennart; Viira, Roomet; Hannus, Aave

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate a theory of planned behavior model for the prediction of physical activity in adolescent girls using a 1-yr. longitudinal design. A secondary purpose was to examine the moderating influence of intention stability and past behavior on intention-behavior relationships. Participants were 236 12- to 13-year-old adolescent girls who completed measures of the theory of planned behavior and physical activity participation (3-Day Physical Activity Recall) across a 1-yr. interval. The standard theoretical variables predicted intentions, as intention, past behavior, and perceived behavioral control predicted behavior. The temporal stability of intentions and past behavior moderated relationships between intention and behavior. An autoregressive path model showed that intention and perceived behavioral control predicted changes in physical activity and physical activity predicted changes in intention, affective attitude, and perceived behavioral control. This study supports the use of the theory of planned behavior in gaining an understanding of the physical activity intention and behavior of adolescent girls.

  7. Ligand-induced conformational changes: Improved predictions of ligand binding conformations and affinities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frimurer, T.M.; Peters, Günther H.J.; Iversen, L.F.

    2003-01-01

    A computational docking strategy using multiple conformations of the target protein is discussed and evaluated. A series of low molecular weight, competitive, nonpeptide protein tyrosine phosphatase inhibitors are considered for which the x-ray crystallographic structures in complex with protein...... tyrosine phosphatase 1 B (PTP1B) are known. To obtain a quantitative measure of the impact of conformational changes induced by the inhibitors, these were docked to the active site region of various structures of PTP1B using the docking program FlexX. Firstly, the inhibitors were docked to a PTP1B crystal...... predicted binding energy and a correct docking mode. Thirdly, to improve the predictability of the docking procedure in the general case, where only a single target protein structure is known, we evaluate an approach which takes possible protein side-chain conformational changes into account. Here, side...

  8. Physical Activity Predicts Performance in an Unpracticed Bimanual Coordination Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P.; Serbruyns, Leen; Swinnen, Stephan P.

    2017-01-01

    Practice of a given physical activity is known to improve the motor skills related to this activity. However, whether unrelated skills are also improved is still unclear. To test the impact of physical activity on an unpracticed motor task, 26 young adults completed the international physical activity questionnaire and performed a bimanual coordination task they had never practiced before. Results showed that higher total physical activity predicted higher performance in the bimanual task, controlling for multiple factors such as age, physical inactivity, music practice, and computer games practice. Linear mixed models allowed this effect of physical activity to be generalized to a large population of bimanual coordination conditions. This finding runs counter to the notion that generalized motor abilities do not exist and supports the existence of a “learning to learn” skill that could be improved through physical activity and that impacts performance in tasks that are not necessarily related to the practiced activity. PMID:28265253

  9. Classroom Activities about Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M.

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this activity is to demonstrate practical work and experiments in the classroom, with students on Water: Water is the most neccesary Earth's resource, although it is decreasing because many human activities are changing its quality and its availability. The activity is designed in order to recreate experiments, simulations, and determine the aspects of the problematic environment currently plaguing our planet, especially those related to water and climate change. The selected activities have to be easy to make, and easy to understand. Each activity will be illustrated, explained and described using pictures and short texts, so teachers could replay them in their classroom. 1. Simulation of the Ocean Water Currents Convection to understand the heat distribution in our planet. 2. Ocean Water Stratification According to Water Salinity. We can understand the behaviour of water when we mix water from different densities 3. Melting of the Arctic and Antarctic Polar Caps. In this experiment, we can see the consequences of changing environment and climate conditions as it pertains to ice and our polar ice caps. We want to show the different behaviours of continental and floating ice and to evaluate the consequences of their melting. 4. Detecting water pollution. Here, we can analyse some water patterns and get to know the existence or absence of pollutants in the water, as well as learning how to determine its pH level, hardness, nitrogen composition, bacteria content and more. 5. Creating a home treatment. We show the necessity to preserve the water quality through a suitable treatment.

  10. Testing Predictions of the Interactive Activation Model in Recovery from Aphasia after Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokel, Regina; Rochon, Elizabeth; Leonard, Carol

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents preliminary results of pre- and post-treatment error analysis from an aphasic patient with anomia. The Interactive Activation (IA) model of word production (Dell, Schwartz, Martin, Saffran, & Gagnon, 1997) is utilized to make predictions about the anticipated changes on a picture naming task and to explain emerging patterns.…

  11. Human activities change marine ecosystems by altering predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Elizabeth M P; Dill, Lawrence M; Ridlon, April D; Heithaus, Michael R; Warner, Robert R

    2016-01-01

    In ocean ecosystems, many of the changes in predation risk - both increases and decreases - are human-induced. These changes are occurring at scales ranging from global to local and across variable temporal scales. Indirect, risk-based effects of human activity are known to be important in structuring some terrestrial ecosystems, but these impacts have largely been neglected in oceans. Here, we synthesize existing literature and data to explore multiple lines of evidence that collectively suggest diverse human activities are changing marine ecosystems, including carbon storage capacity, in myriad ways by altering predation risk. We provide novel, compelling evidence that at least one key human activity, overfishing, can lead to distinct, cascading risk effects in natural ecosystems whose magnitude exceeds that of presumed lethal effects and may account for previously unexplained findings. We further discuss the conservation implications of human-caused indirect risk effects. Finally, we provide a predictive framework for when human alterations of risk in oceans should lead to cascading effects and outline a prospectus for future research. Given the speed and extent with which human activities are altering marine risk landscapes, it is crucial that conservation and management policy considers the indirect effects of these activities in order to increase the likelihood of success and avoid unfortunate surprises. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Functional and catalytic active sites prediction and docking analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bioinformatics

    2015-07-01

    Jul 1, 2015 ... industrially important azo dyes such as the molecular weight, molecular ... et al., 2010). The software possesses structure-based method to predict active sites in proteins based on a Difference of Gaussian (DoG) approach ...

  13. Predicting activities after stroke : what is clinically relevant?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, G.; Kollen, B. J.

    Knowledge about factors that determine the final outcome after stroke is important for early stroke management, rehabilitation goals, and discharge planning. This narrative review provides an overview of current knowledge about the prediction of activities after stroke. We reviewed the pattern of

  14. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  15. Comparing Predictions and Outcomes : Theory and Application to Income Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, J.W.M.; Dominitz, J.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    1997-01-01

    Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, predictions may be compared with realized outcomes.

  16. Combining Satellite Observations of Fire Activity and Numerical Weather Prediction to Improve the Prediction of Smoke Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, D. A.; Wang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Smoke emissions estimates used in air quality and visibility forecasting applications are currently limited by the information content of satellite fire observations, and the lack of a skillful short-term forecast of changes in fire activity. This study explores the potential benefits of a recently developed sub-pixel-based calculation of fire radiative power (FRPf) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which provides more precise estimates of the radiant energy (over the retrieved fire area) that in turn, improves estimates of the thermal buoyancy of smoke plumes and may be helpful characterizing the meteorological effects on fire activity for large fire events. Results show that unlike the current FRP product, the incorporation of FRPf produces a statistically significant correlation (R = 0.42) with smoke plume height data provided by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and several meteorological variables, such as surface wind speed and temperature, which may be useful for discerning cases where smoke was injected above the boundary layer. Drawing from recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP), this study also examines the meteorological conditions characteristic of fire ignition, growth, decay, and extinction, which are used to develop an automated, 24-hour prediction of satellite fire activity. Satellite fire observations from MODIS and geostationary sensors show that the fire prediction model is an improvement (RMSE reduction of 13 - 20%) over the forecast of persistence commonly used by near-real-time fire emission inventories. The ultimate goal is to combine NWP data and satellite fire observations to improve both analysis and prediction of biomass-burning emissions, through improved understanding of the interactions between fire activity and weather at scales appropriate for operational modeling. This is a critical step toward producing a global fire prediction model and improving operational forecasts of

  17. PREDICTS: Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Mace

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The PREDICTS project (www.predicts.org.uk is a three-year NERC-funded project to model and predict at a global scale how local terrestrial diversity responds to human pressures such as land use, land cover, pollution, invasive species and infrastructure. PREDICTS is a collaboration between Imperial College London, the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Microsoft Research Cambridge, UCL and the University of Sussex. In order to meet its aims, the project relies on extensive data describing the diversity and composition of biological communities at a local scale. Such data are collected on a vast scale through the committed efforts of field ecologists. If you have appropriate data that you would be willing to share with us, please get in touch (enquiries@predicts.org.uk. All contributions will be acknowledged appropriately and all data contributors will be included as co-authors on an open-access paper describing the database.

  18. Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

    2012-12-13

    Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

  19. PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USING MODIS DATASET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hirayama

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan’s cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC,warmth index (WI, winter precipitation (PRW and summer precipitation (PRS: and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO, surface geology (GEOL, soil (SOIL, slope aspect (ASP, and inclination (INCL; were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

  20. Prediction of Changes in Vegetation Distribution Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Modis Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirayama, Hidetake; Tomita, Mizuki; Hara, Keitarou

    2016-06-01

    The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan's cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC) warmth index (WI) winter precipitation (PRW) and summer precipitation (PRS): and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO), surface geology (GEOL), soil (SOIL), slope aspect (ASP), and inclination (INCL); were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

  1. Predicting human brain activity associated with the meanings of nouns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Tom M; Shinkareva, Svetlana V; Carlson, Andrew; Chang, Kai-Min; Malave, Vicente L; Mason, Robert A; Just, Marcel Adam

    2008-05-30

    The question of how the human brain represents conceptual knowledge has been debated in many scientific fields. Brain imaging studies have shown that different spatial patterns of neural activation are associated with thinking about different semantic categories of pictures and words (for example, tools, buildings, and animals). We present a computational model that predicts the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) neural activation associated with words for which fMRI data are not yet available. This model is trained with a combination of data from a trillion-word text corpus and observed fMRI data associated with viewing several dozen concrete nouns. Once trained, the model predicts fMRI activation for thousands of other concrete nouns in the text corpus, with highly significant accuracies over the 60 nouns for which we currently have fMRI data.

  2. Hemostatic system changes predictive value in patients with ischemic brain disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raičević Ranko

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to determine the importance of tracking the dynamics of changes of the hemostatic system factors (aggregation of thrombocytes, D-dimer, PAI-1, antithrombin III, protein C and protein S, factor VII and factor VIII, fibrin degradation products, euglobulin test and the activated partial thromboplastin time – aPTPV in relation to the level of the severity of ischemic brain disorders (IBD and the level of neurological and functional deficiency in the beginning of IBD manifestation from 7 to 10 days, 19 to 21 day, and after 3 to 6 months. The research results confirmed significant predictive value of changes of hemostatic system with the predomination of procoagulant factors, together with the insufficiency of fibrinolysis. Concerning the IBD severity and it's outcome, the significant predictive value was shown in the higher levels of PAI-1 and the lower level of antithrombin III, and borderline significant value was shown in the accelerated aggregation of thrombocytes and the increased concentration of D-dimer. It could be concluded that the tracking of the dynamics of changes in parameters of hemostatic system proved to be an easily accessible method with the significant predictive value regarding the development of more severe. IBD cases and the outcome of the disease itself.

  3. Mathematical models for predicting indoor air quality from smoking activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, W R

    1999-05-01

    Much progress has been made over four decades in developing, testing, and evaluating the performance of mathematical models for predicting pollutant concentrations from smoking in indoor settings. Although largely overlooked by the regulatory community, these models provide regulators and risk assessors with practical tools for quantitatively estimating the exposure level that people receive indoors for a given level of smoking activity. This article reviews the development of the mass balance model and its application to predicting indoor pollutant concentrations from cigarette smoke and derives the time-averaged version of the model from the basic laws of conservation of mass. A simple table is provided of computed respirable particulate concentrations for any indoor location for which the active smoking count, volume, and concentration decay rate (deposition rate combined with air exchange rate) are known. Using the indoor ventilatory air exchange rate causes slightly higher indoor concentrations and therefore errs on the side of protecting health, since it excludes particle deposition effects, whereas using the observed particle decay rate gives a more accurate prediction of indoor concentrations. This table permits easy comparisons of indoor concentrations with air quality guidelines and indoor standards for different combinations of active smoking counts and air exchange rates. The published literature on mathematical models of environmental tobacco smoke also is reviewed and indicates that these models generally give good agreement between predicted concentrations and actual indoor measurements.

  4. Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Alpine ecosystems will be greatly impacted by climatic change, but other factors, such as land use and invasive species, are likely to play an important role too. Climate can influence ecosystems at several levels. We describe some of them, stressing methodological approaches and available data. Climate can modify species phenology, such as flowering date of plants and hatching date in insects. It can also change directly population demography (survival, reproduction, dispersal, and therefore species distribution. Finally it can effect interactions among species – snow cover for example can affect the success of some predators. One characteristic of alpine ecosystems is the presence of snow cover, but surprisingly the role played by snow is relatively poorly known, mainly for logistical reasons. Even if we have made important progress regarding the development of predictive models, particularly so for distribution of alpine plants, we still need to set up observational and experimental networks which properly take into account the variability of alpine ecosystems and of their interactions with climate.Les écosystèmes alpins vont être grandement influencés par les changements climatiques à venir, mais d’autres facteurs, tels que l’utilisation des terres ou les espèces invasives, pourront aussi jouer un rôle important. Le climat peut influencer les écosystèmes à différents niveaux, et nous en décrivons certains, en mettant l’accent sur les méthodes utilisées et les données disponibles. Le climat peut d’abord modifier la phénologie des espèces, comme la date de floraison des plantes ou la date d’éclosion des insectes. Il peut ensuite affecter directement la démographie des espèces (survie, reproduction, dispersion et donc à terme leur répartition. Il peut enfin agir sur les interactions entre espèces – le couvert neigeux par exemple modifie le succès de certains prédateurs. Une caractéristique des

  5. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  6. Predictive Active Set Selection Methods for Gaussian Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    We propose an active set selection framework for Gaussian process classification for cases when the dataset is large enough to render its inference prohibitive. Our scheme consists of a two step alternating procedure of active set update rules and hyperparameter optimization based upon marginal...... likelihood maximization. The active set update rules rely on the ability of the predictive distributions of a Gaussian process classifier to estimate the relative contribution of a datapoint when being either included or removed from the model. This means that we can use it to include points with potentially...... high impact to the classifier decision process while removing those that are less relevant. We introduce two active set rules based on different criteria, the first one prefers a model with interpretable active set parameters whereas the second puts computational complexity first, thus a model...

  7. Personality traits and individual differences predict threat-induced changes in postural control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaback, Martin; Cleworth, Taylor W; Carpenter, Mark G; Adkin, Allan L

    2015-04-01

    This study explored whether specific personality traits and individual differences could predict changes in postural control when presented with a height-induced postural threat. Eighty-two healthy young adults completed questionnaires to assess trait anxiety, trait movement reinvestment (conscious motor processing, movement self-consciousness), physical risk-taking, and previous experience with height-related activities. Tests of static (quiet standing) and anticipatory (rise to toes) postural control were completed under low and high postural threat conditions. Personality traits and individual differences significantly predicted height-induced changes in static, but not anticipatory postural control. Individuals less prone to taking physical risks were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at higher frequencies and smaller amplitudes. Individuals more prone to conscious motor processing were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at larger amplitudes. Individuals more self-conscious about their movement appearance were more likely to sway at smaller amplitudes. Evidence is also provided that relationships between physical risk-taking and changes in static postural control are mediated through changes in fear of falling and physiological arousal. Results from this study may have indirect implications for balance assessment and treatment; however, further work exploring these factors in patient populations is necessary.

  8. The use of specialisation indices to predict vulnerability of coral-feeding butterflyfishes to environmental change

    KAUST Repository

    Lawton, Rebecca J.

    2011-07-14

    In the absence of detailed assessments of extinction risk, ecological specialisation is often used as a proxy of vulnerability to environmental disturbances and extinction risk. Numerous indices can be used to estimate specialisation; however, the utility of these different indices to predict vulnerability to future environmental change is unknown. Here we compare the performance of specialisation indices using coral-feeding butterflyfishes as a model group. Our aims were to 1) quantify the dietary preferences of three butterflyfish species across habitats with differing levels of resource availability; 2) investigate how estimates of dietary specialisation vary with the use of different specialisation indices; 3) determine which specialisation indices best inform predictions of vulnerability to environmental change; and 4) assess the utility of resource selection functions to inform predictions of vulnerability to environmental change. The relative level of dietary specialisation estimated for all three species varied when different specialisation indices were used, indicating that the choice of index can have a considerable impact upon estimates of specialisation. Specialisation indices that do not consider resource abundance may fail to distinguish species that primarily use common resources from species that actively target resources disproportionately more than they are available. Resource selection functions provided the greatest insights into the potential response of species to changes in resource availability. Examination of resource selection functions, in addition to specialisation indices, indicated that Chaetodon trifascialis was the most specialised feeder, with highly conserved dietary preferences across all sites, suggesting that this species is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate-induced coral loss on reefs. Our results indicate that vulnerability assessments based on some specialisation indices may be misleading and the best estimates of

  9. Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hall, Kevin D

    2010-01-01

    .... Here, I present the first computational model that simulates how diet perturbations result in adaptations of fuel selection and energy expenditure that predict body weight and composition changes...

  10. Mathematical models for predicting indoor air quality from smoking activity.

    OpenAIRE

    Ott, W R

    1999-01-01

    Much progress has been made over four decades in developing, testing, and evaluating the performance of mathematical models for predicting pollutant concentrations from smoking in indoor settings. Although largely overlooked by the regulatory community, these models provide regulators and risk assessors with practical tools for quantitatively estimating the exposure level that people receive indoors for a given level of smoking activity. This article reviews the development of the mass balanc...

  11. Predicted impacts of land use change on groundwater recharge of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-04-13

    Apr 13, 2012 ... resulted in a highly increased (278%) predicted mean groundwater recharge. Simulated .... on land cover, soil type, slope, rainfall intensity, and antecedent moisture .... from two meteorological stations, with daily measurements of precipitation and ... South African Department of Land Affairs (DWAF, 2006).

  12. Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

    2015-08-01

    The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress.

  13. Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom J; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor. Low ability to voluntarily control attention has previously been associated with anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Attentional control was assessed using the Emotional Attentional Control Scale. In students who were preparing for academic examination, salivary cortisol was assessed before (time 1) and after (time 2) examination. Results showed that lower levels of self-reported emotional attentional control at time 1 (N=90) predicted higher absolute diurnal cortisol secretion and a slower decline in cortisol throughout the day at time 2 (N=71). Difficulty controlling attention during emotional experiences may lead to chronic HPA-axis hyperactivity after prolonged exposure to stress. These results indicate that screening for individual differences may foster prediction of HPA-axis disturbances, paving the way for targeted disorder prevention.

  14. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Marotzke

    2000-01-01

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  15. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  16. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

    2014-01-01

    (China, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia). The results show how sudden events and gradual changes in underlying drivers caused rapid, surprising and widespread land-system changes, including shifts to different regimes in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, whereas land systems in Laos remained stable in the study...

  17. Early Brain changes May Help Predict Autism Among High-Risk Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Media Resources Interviews & Selected Staff Profiles Multimedia Early brain changes may help predict autism among high-risk ... Share this: Page Content NIH-funded researchers link brain changes at 6 and 12 months of age ...

  18. Prediction of Factors Determining Changes in Stability in Protein Mutants

    OpenAIRE

    Parthiban, Vijayarangakannan

    2006-01-01

    Analysing the factors behind protein stability is a key research topic in molecular biology and has direct implications on protein structure prediction and protein-protein docking solutions. Protein stability upon point mutations were analysed using a distance dependant pair potential representing mainly through-space interactions and torsion angle potential representing neighbouring effects as a basic statistical mechanical setup for the analysis. The synergetic effect of accessible surface ...

  19. Planning for subacute care: predicting demand using acute activity data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Janette P; McNamee, Jennifer P; Kobel, Conrad; Seraji, Md Habibur R; Lawrence, Suanne J

    2016-04-07

    Objective The aim of the present study was to develop a robust model that uses the concept of 'rehabilitation-sensitive' Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) in predicting demand for rehabilitation and geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) care following acute in-patient episodes provided in Australian hospitals.Methods The model was developed using statistical analyses of national datasets, informed by a panel of expert clinicians and jurisdictional advice. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken using acute in-patient data, published national hospital statistics and data from the Australasian Rehabilitation Outcomes Centre.Results The predictive model comprises tables of probabilities that patients will require rehabilitation or GEM care after an acute episode, with columns defined by age group and rows defined by grouped Australian Refined (AR)-DRGs.Conclusions The existing concept of rehabilitation-sensitive DRGs was revised and extended. When applied to national data, the model provided a conservative estimate of 83% of the activity actually provided. An example demonstrates the application of the model for service planning.What is known about the topic? Health service planning is core business for jurisdictions and local areas. With populations ageing and an acknowledgement of the underservicing of subacute care, it is timely to find improved methods of estimating demand for this type of care. Traditionally, age-sex standardised utilisation rates for individual DRGs have been applied to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections to predict the future need for subacute services. Improved predictions became possible when some AR-DRGs were designated 'rehabilitation-sensitive'. This improved methodology has been used in several Australian jurisdictions.What does this paper add? This paper presents a new tool, or model, to predict demand for rehabilitation and GEM services based on in-patient acute activity. In this model, the methodology

  20. Changing University Students’ Alternative Conceptions of Optics by Active Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zalkida Hadžibegović

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Active learning is individual and group participation in effective activities such as in-class observing, writing, experimenting, discussion, solving problems, and talking about to-be-learned topics. Some instructors believe that active learning is impossible, or at least extremely difficult to achieve in large lecture sessions. Nevertheless, the truly impressive implementation results of theSCALE-UP learning environment suggest that such beliefs are false (Beichner et al., 2000. In this study, we present a design of an active learning environment with positive effect on students. The design is based on the following elements: (1 helping students to learn from interactive lecture experiment; (2 guiding students to use justified explanation and prediction after observing and exploring a phenomenon; (3 developing a conceptual question sequencedesigned for use in an interactive lecture with students answering questions in worksheets by writing and drawing; (4 evaluating students’ conceptual change and gains by questions related to light reflection, refraction, and image formation in an exam held a week after the active learning session. Data were collected from 95 science freshmen with different secondary school backgrounds. They participated in geometrical optics classes organized for collecting research results during and after only one active learning session.The results have showed that around 60% of the students changed their initial alternative conceptions of vision and of image formation. It was also found that a large group of university students is likely to be engaged in active learning, shifting from a passive role they usually play during teacher’s lectures.

  1. Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palma, De Adriana; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Aizen, Marcelo A.; Albrecht, Matthias; Basset, Yves; Bates, Adam; Blake, Robin J.; Boutin, Céline; Bugter, Rob; Connop, Stuart; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A.; Darvill, Ben; Diekötter, Tim; Dorn, Silvia; Downing, Nicola; Entling, Martin H.; Farwig, Nina; Felicioli, Antonio; Fonte, Steven J.; Fowler, Robert; Franzén, Markus; Goulson, Dave; Grass, Ingo; Hanley, Mick E.; Hendrix, Stephen D.; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Holzschuh, Andrea; Jauker, Birgit; Kessler, Michael; Knight, M.E.; Kruess, Andreas; Lavelle, Patrick; Féon, Le Violette; Lentini, Pia; Malone, Louise A.; Marshall, Jon; Pachón, Eliana Martínez; McFrederick, Quinn S.; Morales, Carolina L.; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Nilsson, Sven G.; Öckinger, Erik; Osgathorpe, Lynne; Parra-H, Alejandro; Peres, Carlos A.; Persson, Anna S.; Petanidou, Theodora; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F.; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Richards, Miriam H.; Roulston, Tai; Rousseau, Laurent; Sadler, Jonathan P.; Samnegård, Ulrika; Schellhorn, Nancy A.; Schüepp, Christof; Schweiger, Oliver; Smith-Pardo, Allan H.; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stout, Jane C.; Tonietto, Rebecca K.; Tscharntke, Teja; Tylianakis, Jason M.; Verboven, Hans A.F.; Vergara, Carlos H.; Verhulst, Jort; Westphal, Catrin; Yoon, Hyung Joo; Purvis, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentati

  2. model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Existing data, tools and methods to facilitate these changes, ... MATERIALS AND METHODS. The study .... 2.0 º x 2.5 º. Laboratory, United States ... downscaled GCM data sets, and reference .... expansion and rehabilitation of existing irrigation.

  3. Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Tropical Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Amin Danladi Bello

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a tropical river system under climate and land-use changes from the aspects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were evaluated. Nine designed projected climate change scenarios and three future land-use scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF model to determine the impact of climate change and land-use on water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO concentration using basin-wide simulation of river system in Malaysia. The model performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, and DO concentration in a monthly time step simulation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for streamflow was 0.88 for the calibration period and 0.82 for validation period. For water temperature and DO concentration, data from three stations were calibrated and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for both water temperature and DO ranged from 0.53 to 0.70. The output of the calibrated model under climate change scenarios show that increased rainfall and air temperature do not affects DO concentration and water temperature as much as the condition of a decrease in rainfall and increase in air temperature. The regression model on changes in streamflow, DO concentration, and water temperature under the climate change scenarios illustrates that scenarios that produce high to moderate streamflow, produce small predicted change in water temperatures and DO concentrations compared with the scenarios that produced a low streamflow. It was observed that climate change slightly affects the relationship between water temperatures and DO concentrations in the tropical rivers that we

  4. Predictions of Unbalanced Response of Turbo Compressor Equipped with Active Magnetic Bearings through System Identification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, SeongKi; NOh, Myounggyu; Park, Young Woo [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Kiwook; Lee, Nam Soo; Jeog, Jinhee [LG Electronics, Gumi (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-01-15

    Since vibrations in rotating machinery is a direct cause of performance degradation and failures, it is very important to predict the level of vibrations as well as have a method to lower the vibrations to an acceptable level. However, the changes in balancing during installation and the vibrational modes of the support structure are difficult to predict. This paper presents a method for predicting the unbalanced response of a turbo-compressor supported by active magnetic bearings (AMBs). Transfer functions of the rotor are obtained through system identification using AMBs. These transfer functions contain not only the dynamics of the rotor but also the vibrational modes of the support structure. Using these transfer functions, the unbalanced response is calculated and compared with the run-up data obtained from a compressor prototype. The predictions revealed the effects of the support structure, validating the efficacy of the method.

  5. Personality traits in rats predict vulnerability and resilience to developing stress-induced depression-like behaviors, HPA axis hyper-reactivity and brain changes in pERK1/2 activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jorge E; Diessler, Shanaz; Varea, Emilio; Márquez, Cristina; Larsen, Marianne H; Cordero, M Isabel; Sandi, Carmen

    2012-08-01

    Emerging evidence indicates that certain behavioral traits, such as anxiety, are associated with the development of depression-like behaviors after exposure to chronic stress. However, single traits do not explain the wide variability in vulnerability to stress observed in outbred populations. We hypothesized that a combination of behavioral traits might provide a better characterization of an individual's vulnerability to prolonged stress. Here, we sought to determine whether the characterization of relevant behavioral traits in rats could aid in identifying individuals with different vulnerabilities to developing stress-induced depression-like behavioral alterations. We also investigated whether behavioral traits would be related to the development of alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and in brain activity - as measured through phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2)--in response to an acute stressor following either sub-chronic (2 weeks) or chronic (4 weeks) unpredictable stress (CUS). Sprague-Dawley rats were characterized using a battery of behavioral tasks, and three principal traits were identified: anxiety, exploration and activity. When combined, the first two traits were found to explain the variability in the stress responses. Our findings confirm the increased risk of animals with high anxiety developing certain depression-like behaviors (e.g., increased floating time in the forced swim test) when progressively exposed to stress. In contrast, the behavioral profile based on combined low anxiety and low exploration was resistant to alterations related to social behaviors, while the high anxiety and low exploration profile displayed a particularly vulnerable pattern of physiological and neurobiological responses after sub-chronic stress exposure. Our findings indicate important differences in animals' vulnerability and/or resilience to the effects of repeated stress, particularly during initial or

  6. Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Colman, Jesse [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kalendra, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-28

    Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.

  7. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  8. Predicting flow at work: investigating the activities and job characteristics that predict flow states at work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Karina; Cleal, Bryan

    2010-04-01

    Flow (a state of consciousness where people become totally immersed in an activity and enjoy it intensely) has been identified as a desirable state with positive effects for employee well-being and innovation at work. Flow has been studied using both questionnaires and Experience Sampling Method (ESM). In this study, we used a newly developed 9-item flow scale in an ESM study combined with a questionnaire to examine the predictors of flow at two levels: the activities (brainstorming, planning, problem solving and evaluation) associated with transient flow states and the more stable job characteristics (role clarity, influence and cognitive demands). Participants were 58 line managers from two companies in Denmark; a private accountancy firm and a public elder care organization. We found that line managers in elder care experienced flow more often than accountancy line managers, and activities such as planning, problem solving, and evaluation predicted transient flow states. The more stable job characteristics included in this study were not, however, found to predict flow at work.

  9. Baseline brain activity predicts response to neuromodulatory pain treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Mark P; Sherlin, Leslie H; Fregni, Felipe; Gianas, Ann; Howe, Jon D; Hakimian, Shahin

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the associations between baseline electroencephalogram (EEG)-assessed brain oscillations and subsequent response to four neuromodulatory treatments. Based on available research, we hypothesized that baseline theta oscillations would prospectively predict response to hypnotic analgesia. Analyses involving other oscillations and the other treatments (meditation, neurofeedback, and both active and sham transcranial direct current stimulation) were viewed as exploratory, given the lack of previous research examining brain oscillations as predictors of response to these other treatments. Randomized controlled study of single sessions of four neuromodulatory pain treatments and a control procedure. Thirty individuals with spinal cord injury and chronic pain had their EEG recorded before each session of four active treatments (hypnosis, meditation, EEG biofeedback, transcranial direct current stimulation) and a control procedure (sham transcranial direct stimulation). As hypothesized, more presession theta power was associated with greater response to hypnotic analgesia. In exploratory analyses, we found that less baseline alpha power predicted pain reduction with meditation. The findings support the idea that different patients respond to different pain treatments and that between-person treatment response differences are related to brain states as measured by EEG. The results have implications for the possibility of enhancing pain treatment response by either 1) better patient/treatment matching or 2) influencing brain activity before treatment is initiated in order to prepare patients to respond. Research is needed to replicate and confirm the findings in additional samples of individuals with chronic pain. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a framework for predicting quantitative relationships between molecular initiatin...

  11. And yet they correlate: psychophysiological activation predicts self-report outcomes of exposure therapy in claustrophobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpers, Georg W; Sell, Roxane

    2008-10-01

    The study examines whether self-reported fear and physiological activation are concordant when claustrophobic patients are exposed to small spaces, whether the measures change in synchrony for individual patients and whether initial activation of measures can predict the outcome of an exposure treatment. Ten patients with claustrophobia participated in six in-vivo exposure sessions with continuous monitoring of self-reported fear and their EKG. Partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)), a measure of hyperventilation, was available in a subsample of patients. While evidence for concordance of self-reported fear and heart rate was limited, the measures changed synchronously within subjects. Most importantly, higher heart rate at the beginning of the first exposure session predicted better treatment outcome. Because self-reported fear turned out not to be a reliable predictor of the outcome, this is interpreted as evidence for the incremental validity of physiological measures of fear.

  12. Predictors and Predictive Effects of Attitudinal Inconsistency Towards Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    in Organizations: Minimizing Resistance to Change, Basil Blackwell, Cambridge, MA. Kanter, R., Stein, B., & Jick, T. (1992). The challenge of...and graduate programs’ ethics training for life scientists. In S. Frickel & K. Moor (Eds.) The New political Sociology of Science: Institutions

  13. Can We Predict Types of Code Changes? An Empirical Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giger, E.; Pinzger, M.; Gall, H.C.

    2012-01-01

    Preprint of paper published in: 9th IEEE Working Conference on Mining Software Repositories (MSR), 2-3 June 2012; doi:10.1109/MSR.2012.6224284 There exist many approaches that help in pointing developers to the change-prone parts of a software system. Although beneficial, they mostly fall short in

  14. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    2016-01-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  15. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  16. Can We Predict Types of Code Changes? An Empirical Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giger, E.; Pinzger, M.; Gall, H.C.

    2012-01-01

    Preprint of paper published in: 9th IEEE Working Conference on Mining Software Repositories (MSR), 2-3 June 2012; doi:10.1109/MSR.2012.6224284 There exist many approaches that help in pointing developers to the change-prone parts of a software system. Although beneficial, they mostly fall short in

  17. Predicting the responses of soil nitrite-oxidizers to multi-factorial global change: a trait-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier eLE ROUX

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California on the potential activity, abundance and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB. Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the ‘High CO2+Nitrogen+Precipitation’ treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.

  18. Early onset of hypertension and serum electrolyte changes as potential predictive factors of activity in advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib: results from a retrospective analysis of the HCC-AVR group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardini, Andrea Casadei; Scarpi, Emanuela; Marisi, Giorgia; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Donati, Gabriele; Giampalma, Emanuela; Faloppi, Luca; Scartozzi, Mario; Silvestris, Nicola; Bisulli, Marcello; Corbelli, Jody; Gardini, Andrea; Barba, Giuliano La; Veneroni, Luigi; Tamberi, Stefano; Cascinu, Stefano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension (HTN) is frequently associated with the use of angiogenesis inhibitors targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and appears to be a generalized effect of this class of agent. We investigated the phenomenon in 61 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving sorafenib. Blood pressure and plasma electrolytes were measured on days 1 and 15 of the treatment. Patients with sorafenib-induced HTN had a better outcome than those without HTN (disease control rate: 63.4% vs. 17.2% (p=0.001); progression-free survival 6.0 months (95% CI 3.2-10.1) vs. 2.5 months (95% CI 1.9-2.6) (p<0.001) and overall survival 14.6 months (95% CI9.7-19.0) vs. 3.9 months (95% CI 3.1-8.7) (p=0.003). Sodium levels were generally higher on day 15 than at baseline (+2.38, p<0.0001) in the group of responders (+4.95, p <0.0001) compared to patients who progressed (PD) (+0.28, p=0.607). In contrast, potassium was lower on day 14 (−0.30, p=0.0008) in the responder group (−0.58, p=0.003) than in those with progressive disease (−0.06, p=0.500). The early onset of hypertension is associated with improved clinical outcome in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Our data are suggestive of an activation of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with advanced disease who developed HTN during sorafenib treatment. PMID:26893366

  19. A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M. (Principal Investigator); LeMoigne, J.; Dorband, J.; Lomonaco, S.; Yesha, Ya.; Simpson, D.; Clune, T.; Pelissier, C.; Nearing, G.; Gentine, P.; Fang, B.; Shehab, A.; Radov, Asen; Tikak, N.; Prouty, Roy; Harrison, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be

  20. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... will decline. These levels of confidence seem unwarranted, since many processes are either absent from or poorly represented in the models used, data are sparse and, unlike terrestrial crop projections, there are no controlled experiments.This review discusses methodological issues that affect our...

  1. Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change

    OpenAIRE

    Ehret, U.; Gupta, H.V.; Sivapalan, M.; Weijs, S.V.; Schymanski, S.J.; Blöschl, G.; Gelfan, A. N.; Harman, C; Kleidon, A.; Bogaard, T.A.; Wang, D.; Wagener, T.; U. Scherer; Zehe, E.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout its historical development, hydrology as an engineering discipline and earth science has relied strongly on the assumption of long-term stationary boundary conditions and system configurations, which allowed for simplified and sectoral descriptions of the dynamics of hydrological systems. However, in the face of rapid and extensive global changes (of climate, land use etc.) which affect all parts of the hydrological cycle, the general validity of this assumption appears doub...

  2. Muscle Strength Predicts Changes in Physical Function in Women with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, James S.; Trupin, Laura; Schmajuk, Gabriela; Barton, Jennifer; Margaretten, Mary; Yazdany, Jinoos; Yelin, Edward H.; Katz, Patricia P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Cross-sectional studies have observed that muscle weakness is associated with worse physical function among women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The present study examines whether reduced upper and lower extremity muscle strength predict declines in function over time among adult women with SLE. Methods One hundred forty-six women from a longitudinal SLE cohort participated in the study. All measures were collected during in-person research visits approximately 2 years apart. Upper extremity muscle strength was assessed by grip strength. Lower extremity muscle strength was assessed by peak knee torque of extension and flexion. Physical function was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Regression analyses modeled associations of baseline upper and lower extremity muscle strength with follow-up SPPB scores controlling for baseline SPPB, age, SLE duration, SLE disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire [SLAQ]), physical activity level, prednisone use, body composition, and depression. Secondary analyses tested whether associations of baseline muscle strength with follow-up in SPPB scores differed between intervals of varying baseline muscle strength. Results Lower extremity muscle strength strongly predicted changes over 2 years in physical function even when controlling for covariates. The association of reduced lower extremity muscle strength with reduced future physical function was greatest among the weakest women. Conclusions Reduced lower extremity muscle strength predicted clinically significant declines in physical function, especially among the weakest women. Future studies should test whether therapies that promote preservation of lower extremity muscle strength may prevent declines in function among women with SLE. PMID:25623919

  3. Changes in active site histidine hydrogen bonding trigger cryptochrome activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Abir; Manahan, Craig C; Top, Deniz; Yee, Estella F; Lin, Changfan; Young, Michael W; Thiel, Walter; Crane, Brian R

    2016-09-06

    Cryptochrome (CRY) is the principal light sensor of the insect circadian clock. Photoreduction of the Drosophila CRY (dCRY) flavin cofactor to the anionic semiquinone (ASQ) restructures a C-terminal tail helix (CTT) that otherwise inhibits interactions with targets that include the clock protein Timeless (TIM). All-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations indicate that flavin reduction destabilizes the CTT, which undergoes large-scale conformational changes (the CTT release) on short (25 ns) timescales. The CTT release correlates with the conformation and protonation state of conserved His378, which resides between the CTT and the flavin cofactor. Poisson-Boltzmann calculations indicate that flavin reduction substantially increases the His378 pKa Consistent with coupling between ASQ formation and His378 protonation, dCRY displays reduced photoreduction rates with increasing pH; however, His378Asn/Arg variants show no such pH dependence. Replica-exchange MD simulations also support CTT release mediated by changes in His378 hydrogen bonding and verify other responsive regions of the protein previously identified by proteolytic sensitivity assays. His378 dCRY variants show varying abilities to light-activate TIM and undergo self-degradation in cellular assays. Surprisingly, His378Arg/Lys variants do not degrade in light despite maintaining reactivity toward TIM, thereby implicating different conformational responses in these two functions. Thus, the dCRY photosensory mechanism involves flavin photoreduction coupled to protonation of His378, whose perturbed hydrogen-bonding pattern alters the CTT and surrounding regions.

  4. Proteinuria predicts relapse in adolescent and adult minimal change disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Bitencourt Dias

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This study sought to outline the clinical and laboratory characteristics of minimal change disease in adolescents and adults and establish the clinical and laboratory characteristics of relapsing and non-relapsing patients. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated patients with confirmed diagnoses of minimal change disease by renal biopsy from 1979 to 2009; the patients were aged >13 years and had minimum 1-year follow-ups. RESULTS: Sixty-three patients with a median age (at diagnosis of 34 (23-49 years were studied, including 23 males and 40 females. At diagnosis, eight (12.7% patients presented with microscopic hematuria, 17 (27% with hypertension and 17 (27% with acute kidney injury. After the initial treatment, 55 (87.3% patients showed complete remission, six (9.5% showed partial remission and two (3.1% were nonresponders. Disease relapse was observed in 34 (54% patients who were initial responders (n = 61. In a comparison between the relapsing patients (n = 34 and the non-relapsing patients (n = 27, only proteinuria at diagnosis showed any significant difference (8.8 (7.1-12.0 vs. 6.0 (3.6-7.3 g/day, respectively, p = 0.001. Proteinuria greater than 7 g/day at the initial screening was associated with relapsing disease. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, minimal change disease in adults may sometimes present concurrently with hematuria, hypertension, and acute kidney injury. The relapsing pattern in our patients was associated with basal proteinuria over 7 g/day.

  5. Parietal operculum and motor cortex activities predict motor recovery in moderate to severe stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdaus Fabrice Hannanu

    2017-01-01

    In subacute stroke, fMRI brain activity related to passive movement measured in a sensorimotor network defined by activity during voluntary movement predicted motor recovery better than baseline motor-FMS alone. Furthermore, fMRI sensorimotor network activity measures considered alone allowed excellent clinical recovery prediction and may provide reliable biomarkers for assessing new therapies in clinical trial contexts. Our findings suggest that neural reorganization related to motor recovery from moderate to severe stroke results from balanced changes in ipsilesional MI (BA4a and a set of phylogenetically more archaic sensorimotor regions in the ventral sensorimotor trend, in which OP1 and OP4 processes may complement the ipsilesional dorsal motor cortex in achieving compensatory sensorimotor recovery.

  6. Solar Activity Predictions Based on Solar Dynamo Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    2009-05-01

    We review solar activity prediction methods, statistical, precursor, and recently the Dikpati and the Choudhury groups’ use of numerical flux-dynamo methods. Outlining various methods, we compare precursor techniques with weather forecasting. Precursors involve events prior to a solar cycle. First started by the Russian geomagnetician Ohl, and then Brown and Williams; the Earth's field variations near solar minimum was used to predict the next solar cycle, with a correlation of 0.95. From the standpoint of causality, as well as energetically, these relationships were somewhat bizarre. One index used was the "number of anomalous quiet days,” an antiquated, subjective index. Scientific progress cannot be made without some suspension of disbelief; otherwise old paradigms become tautologies. So, with youthful naïveté, Svalgaard, Scherrer, Wilcox and I viewed the results through rose-colored glasses and pressed ahead searching for understanding. We eventually fumbled our way to explaining how the Sun could broadcast the state of its internal dynamo to Earth. We noted one key aspect of the Babcock-Leighton Flux Dynamo theory: the polar field at the end of a cycle serves as a seed for the next cycle's growth. Near solar minimum this field usually bathes the Earth, and thereby affects geomagnetic indices then. We found support by examining 8 previous solar cycles. Using our solar precursor technique we successfully predicted cycles 21, 22 and 23 using WSO and MWSO data. Pesnell and I improved the method using a SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) Index. In 2005, nearing cycle 23's minimum, Svalgaard and I noted an unusually weak polar field, and forecasted a small cycle 24. We discuss future advances: the flux-dynamo methods. As far as future solar activity, I shall let the Sun decide; it will do so anyhow.

  7. Predicting success: factors associated with weight change in obese youth undertaking a weight management program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Kimberley A; Ware, Robert S; Batch, Jennifer A; Truby, Helen

    2013-01-01

    To explore which baseline physiological and psychosocial variables predict change in body mass index (BMI) z-score in obese youth after 12 weeks of a dietary weight management study. Participants were obese young people participating in a dietary intervention trial in Brisbane Australia. The outcome variable was change in BMI z-score. Potential predictors considered included demographic, physiological and psychosocial parameters of the young person, and demographic characteristics of their parents. A multivariable regression model was constructed to examine the effect of potential predictive variables. Participants (n = 88) were predominantly female (69.3%), and had a mean(standard deviation) age of 13.1(1.9) years and BMI z-score of 2.2(0.4) on presentation. Lower BMI z-score (p resistance (p = 0.04) at baseline, referral from a paediatrician (p = 0.02) and being more socially advantaged (p = 0.046) were significantly associated with weight loss. Macronutrient distribution of diet and physical activity level did not contribute. Early intervention in obesity treatment in young people improves likelihood of success. Other factors such as degree of insulin resistance, social advantage and referral source also appear to play a role. Assessing presenting characteristics and factors associated with treatment outcome may allow practicing clinicians to individualise a weight management program or determine the 'best-fit' treatment for an obese adolescent. © 2013 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative predictions of binding free energy changes in drug-resistant influenza neuraminidase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R Ripoll

    Full Text Available Quantitatively predicting changes in drug sensitivity associated with residue mutations is a major challenge in structural biology. By expanding the limits of free energy calculations, we successfully identified mutations in influenza neuraminidase (NA that confer drug resistance to two antiviral drugs, zanamivir and oseltamivir. We augmented molecular dynamics (MD with Hamiltonian Replica Exchange and calculated binding free energy changes for H274Y, N294S, and Y252H mutants. Based on experimental data, our calculations achieved high accuracy and precision compared with results from established computational methods. Analysis of 15 micros of aggregated MD trajectories provided insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying drug resistance that are at odds with current interpretations of the crystallographic data. Contrary to the notion that resistance is caused by mutant-induced changes in hydrophobicity of the binding pocket, our simulations showed that drug resistance mutations in NA led to subtle rearrangements in the protein structure and its dynamics that together alter the active-site electrostatic environment and modulate inhibitor binding. Importantly, different mutations confer resistance through different conformational changes, suggesting that a generalized mechanism for NA drug resistance is unlikely.

  9. Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Laura M; Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Hooker, Christine I

    2014-01-01

    LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investigated whether schizophrenia participants show LPFC deficits during cognitive control of emotional information, and whether these LPFC deficits prospectively predict changes in mood and symptoms following real-world interpersonal conflict. During fMRI, 23 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 24 healthy controls completed the Multi-Source Interference Task superimposed on neutral and negative pictures. Afterwards, schizophrenia participants completed a 21-day online daily-diary in which they rated the extent to which they experienced mood and schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms, as well as the occurrence and response to interpersonal conflict. Schizophrenia participants had lower dorsal LPFC activity (BA9) during cognitive control of task-irrelevant negative emotional information. Within schizophrenia participants, DLPFC activity during cognitive control of emotional information predicted changes in positive and negative mood on days following highly distressing interpersonal conflicts. Results have implications for understanding the specific role of LPFC in response to social stress in schizophrenia, and suggest that treatments targeting LPFC-mediated cognitive control of emotion could promote adaptive response to social stress in schizophrenia.

  10. Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Tully, PhD

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investigated whether schizophrenia participants show LPFC deficits during cognitive control of emotional information, and whether these LPFC deficits prospectively predict changes in mood and symptoms following real-world interpersonal conflict. During fMRI, 23 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 24 healthy controls completed the Multi-Source Interference Task superimposed on neutral and negative pictures. Afterwards, schizophrenia participants completed a 21-day online daily-diary in which they rated the extent to which they experienced mood and schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms, as well as the occurrence and response to interpersonal conflict. Schizophrenia participants had lower dorsal LPFC activity (BA9 during cognitive control of task-irrelevant negative emotional information. Within schizophrenia participants, DLPFC activity during cognitive control of emotional information predicted changes in positive and negative mood on days following highly distressing interpersonal conflicts. Results have implications for understanding the specific role of LPFC in response to social stress in schizophrenia, and suggest that treatments targeting LPFC-mediated cognitive control of emotion could promote adaptive response to social stress in schizophrenia.

  11. Fire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan under predicted climate change : summary document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisien, M.; Hirsch, K.; Todd, B.; Flannigan, M. [Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Kafka, V. [Parks Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Flynn, N. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This study assesses fire danger and fire behaviour potential in central Saskatchewan using simulated climate scenarios produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), including scenario analysis of base, double and triple level carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and uses available forest fuels to develop an absolute measure of fire behaviour. For each of these climate scenarios, the CRCM-generated weather was used as input variables into the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System. Fire behavior potential was quantified using head fire intensity, a measure of the fire's energy output because it can be related to fire behavior characteristics, suppression effectiveness, and fire effects. The report discusses the implications of fire behavior potential changes for fire and forest management. Preliminary results suggest a large increase in area burned in the study area by the end of the twenty-first century. Some of the possible fire management activities for long-term prediction include: pre-positioning of resources, preparedness planning, prioritization of fire and forest management activities and fire threat evaluation. 16 refs., 1 tab, 7 figs.

  12. Automatic detection of adverse events to predict drug label changes using text and data mining techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurulingappa, Harsha; Toldo, Luca; Rajput, Abdul Mateen; Kors, Jan A; Taweel, Adel; Tayrouz, Yorki

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the impact of automatically detected adverse event signals from text and open-source data on the prediction of drug label changes. Open-source adverse effect data were collected from FAERS, Yellow Cards and SIDER databases. A shallow linguistic relation extraction system (JSRE) was applied for extraction of adverse effects from MEDLINE case reports. Statistical approach was applied on the extracted datasets for signal detection and subsequent prediction of label changes issued for 29 drugs by the UK Regulatory Authority in 2009. 76% of drug label changes were automatically predicted. Out of these, 6% of drug label changes were detected only by text mining. JSRE enabled precise identification of four adverse drug events from MEDLINE that were undetectable otherwise. Changes in drug labels can be predicted automatically using data and text mining techniques. Text mining technology is mature and well-placed to support the pharmacovigilance tasks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Prediction of antibacterial activity from physicochemical properties of antimicrobial peptides.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel N Melo

    Full Text Available Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM, which conciliates the two types of observations.

  14. [Model for predicting childhood obesity from diet and physical activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrosa-Haro, Alfredo; González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vásquez-Garibay, Edgar Manuel; Romero-Velarde, Enrique; Chávez-Palencia, Clío; Salazar-Preciado, Laura Leticia; Lizárraga-Corona, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    If obesity results from the interaction of variables that involve the subject and his environment, the alternatives to face the problem could be very diverse. The objective of this study was to seek for the best predictive model of childhood obesity from energy ingestion, dietary habits and physical activity. Case control study of 99 obese and 100 healthy weight children (Center for Diseases Control criteria). Energy ingestion was estimated by means of a 24-hour recall, dietary and physical activity habits by validated questionnaires. A logistic regression analysis was made. Variables independently associated to obesity were higher energy ingestion; lower frequency in mealtimes; having the afternoon lunch outside home; higher frequency of consumption of fat, junk food and sweetened beverages; lower time of moderate physical activity at school and at home; and increased time for homework and watching TV. The variables included in the regression model were energy intake; frequency of ingestion of fat, junk foods and sweetened beverages; and physical activity at home and at school. The diversity of associated variables underlines the complexity and multi-causal condition of obesity.

  15. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  16. Biodiversity decreases disease through predictable changes in host community competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Preston, Daniel L; Hoverman, Jason T; Richgels, Katherine L D

    2013-02-14

    Accelerating rates of species extinctions and disease emergence underscore the importance of understanding how changes in biodiversity affect disease outcomes. Over the past decade, a growing number of studies have reported negative correlations between host biodiversity and disease risk, prompting suggestions that biodiversity conservation could promote human and wildlife health. Yet the generality of the diversity-disease linkage remains conjectural, in part because empirical evidence of a relationship between host competence (the ability to maintain and transmit infections) and the order in which communities assemble has proven elusive. Here we integrate high-resolution field data with multi-scale experiments to show that host diversity inhibits transmission of the virulent pathogen Ribeiroia ondatrae and reduces amphibian disease as a result of consistent linkages among species richness, host composition and community competence. Surveys of 345 wetlands indicated that community composition changed nonrandomly with species richness, such that highly competent hosts dominated in species-poor assemblages whereas more resistant species became progressively more common in diverse assemblages. As a result, amphibian species richness strongly moderated pathogen transmission and disease pathology among 24,215 examined hosts, with a 78.4% decline in realized transmission in richer assemblages. Laboratory and mesocosm manipulations revealed an approximately 50% decrease in pathogen transmission and host pathology across a realistic diversity gradient while controlling for host density, helping to establish mechanisms underlying the diversity-disease relationship and their consequences for host fitness. By revealing a consistent link between species richness and community competence, these findings highlight the influence of biodiversity on infection risk and emphasize the benefit of a community-based approach to understanding infectious diseases.

  17. Relationship satisfaction predicts sexual activity following risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Tierney; McGregor, Bonnie; Swisher, Elizabeth

    2014-06-01

    Changes in sexual function are a common outcome following risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), a prophylactic surgery for women at high risk of ovarian and other gynecologic cancers. Despite the known importance of sexuality in patients' quality of life and satisfaction with surgery, little is known about what predicts sexual activity following RRSO. The present study examined how mental and physical health variables predicted sexual activity before and after RRSO. We conducted a secondary analysis of quality of life measures collected in 85 women at high risk for ovarian cancer. Participants completed validated measures of mental, physical, and relationship health 1-2 weeks before surgery, and 2, 6 and 12 months following surgery. Across analyses, relationship satisfaction emerged as the most significant predictor of change in sexual activity: women with high relationship satisfaction were more likely to continue to have regular sexual activity following RRSO, even in the presence of vaginal menopausal symptoms. The effect of depression, anxiety and overall physical health on sexual activity was non-significant when controlling for relationship satisfaction. When counseling women about RRSO and its impact on sexual activity, clinicians should discuss the effect of the patient's relationship health on this outcome.

  18. Predicting active school travel: The role of planned behavior and habit strength

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murtagh Shemane

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model’s predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children’s active school travel. Method Participants (N = 126 children aged 8–9 years; 59 % males were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. Results The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. Conclusions The TPB significantly predicts children’s active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children’s intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit. Further research is needed to identify effective

  19. Predicting active school travel: the role of planned behavior and habit strength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtagh, Shemane; Rowe, David A; Elliott, Mark A; McMinn, David; Nelson, Norah M

    2012-05-30

    Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model's predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children's active school travel. Participants (N = 126 children aged 8-9 years; 59 % males) were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. The TPB significantly predicts children's active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children's intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit). Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for changing these antecedents of children's active school travel.

  20. Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Pattnaik, S.; De, S.

    2013-08-01

    This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and saturate thereafter. Irrespective of the phases of the monsoon, the lower bound of predictability is 2 pentads, while upper bound of predictability for initial conditions starting from active phase saturates at 3 pentads and for break and transition phases predictability error saturates at a later stage at about 5 pentad. Initial conditions started from transition phase shows higher potential predictability followed by break phase and then active phase.

  1. Predicting the effect of urban noise on the active space of avian vocal signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parris, Kirsten M; McCarthy, Michael A

    2013-10-01

    Urbanization changes the physical environment of nonhuman species but also markedly changes their acoustic environment. Urban noise interferes with acoustic communication in a range of animals, including birds, with potentially profound impacts on fitness. However, a mechanistic theory to predict which species of birds will be most affected by urban noise is lacking. We develop a mathematical model to predict the decrease in the active space of avian vocal signals after moving from quiet forest habitats to noisy urban habitats. We find that the magnitude of the decrease is largely a function of signal frequency. However, this relationship is not monotonic. A metaregression of observed increases in the frequency of birdsong in urban noise supports the model's predictions for signals with frequencies between 1.5 and 4 kHz. Using results of the metaregression and the model described above, we show that the expected gain in active space following observed frequency shifts is up to 12% and greatest for birds with signals at the lower end of this frequency range. Our generally applicable model, along with three predictions regarding the behavioral and population-level responses of birds to urban noise, represents an important step toward a theory of acoustic communication in urban habitats.

  2. Phenotypic plasticity as an adaptive response to predictable and unpredictable environmental changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manenti, Tommaso

    Phenotypic plasticity is the ability of a genotype to modify its phenotype in response to environmental changes as a consequence of an interaction between genes and environment (Bradshaw, 1965). Plasticity contributes to the vast phenotypic variation observed in natural populations. Many examples...... such as anti-predator behaviours or the activation of mechanisms to prevent thermal stress injuries suggest that plasticity is an adaptive response, favoured by natural selection. At the same time, organisms do show limited plastic responses, indicating that this ability is not for free. Costs and benefits...... to be an adaptive response. Despite almost a century of studies on phenotypic plasticity, the relation between plasticity and evolution is still not clear and theoretical prediction are often not met by empirical data. In my PhD I have investigated if and when plasticity can evolve. I selected Drosophila simulans...

  3. Dynamic Associations of Change in Physical Activity and Change in Cognitive Function: Coordinated Analyses of Four Longitudinal Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Lindwall

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study used a coordinated analyses approach to examine the association of physical activity and cognitive change in four longitudinal studies. A series of multilevel growth models with physical activity included both as a fixed (between-person and time-varying (within-person predictor of four domains of cognitive function (reasoning, memory, fluency, and semantic knowledge was used. Baseline physical activity predicted fluency, reasoning and memory in two studies. However, there was a consistent pattern of positive relationships between time-specific changes in physical activity and time-specific changes in cognition, controlling for expected linear trajectories over time, across all four studies. This pattern was most evident for the domains of reasoning and fluency.

  4. Behind the stage of deliberate self-persuasion: When changes in valence of associations to an attitude object predict attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tong; Lord, Charles G; Yoke, Kristin

    2015-12-01

    Modern theory and research on evaluative processes, combined with a comprehensive review of deliberate self-persuasion (Maio & Thomas, 2007, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull., 11, 46), suggest two types of strategies people can use to construct new, more desired attitudes. Epistemic strategies change the perceived valence of associations activated by the attitude object. Teleologic strategies, in contrast, keep undesired associations from being activated in the first place, thus obviating the need to change their perceived valence. Change in perceived valence of associations therefore might predict attitude change better when people pursue epistemic than teleologic strategies for deliberate self-persuasion. This hypothesis gained convergent support from three studies in which use of epistemic versus teleologic strategies was measured as an individual difference (Study 1) and manipulated (studies 2 and 3). The results of these studies supported the theoretical distinction between the two strategies and suggested further research directions. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Solubility Prediction of Active Pharmaceutical Compounds with the UNIFAC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouar, Abderrahim; Benmessaoud, Ibtissem; Koutchoukali, Ouahiba; Koutchoukali, Mohamed Salah

    2016-03-01

    The crystallization from solution of an active pharmaceutical ingredient requires the knowledge of the solubility in the entire temperature range investigated during the process. However, during the development of a new active ingredient, these data are missing. Its experimental determination is possible, but tedious. UNIFAC Group contribution method Fredenslund et al. (Vapor-liquid equilibria using UNIFAC: a group contribution method, 1977; AIChE J 21:1086, 1975) can be used to predict this physical property. Several modifications on this model have been proposed since its development in 1977, modified UNIFAC of Dortmund Weidlich et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 26:1372, 1987), Gmehling et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 32:178, 1993), Pharma-modified UNIFAC Diedrichs et al. (Evaluation und Erweiterung thermodynamischer Modelle zur Vorhersage von Wirkstofflöslichkeiten, PhD Thesis, 2010), KT-UNIFAC Kang et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 41:3260, 2002), ldots In this study, we used UNIFAC model by considering the linear temperature dependence of interaction parameters as in Pharma-modified UNIFAC and structural groups as defined by KT-UNIFAC first-order model. More than 100 binary datasets were involved in the estimation of interaction parameters. These new parameters were then used to calculate activity coefficient and solubility of some molecules in various solvents at different temperatures. The model gives better results than those from the original UNIFAC and shows good agreement between the experimental solubility and the calculated one.

  6. Predicting the vulnerability of nearshore species and habitats to climate change effects

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The primary objective of the research is to develop a rule-based decision support system to predict the relative vulnerability of nearshore species to climate change.

  7. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of

  8. Modelling land Use Change : Improving the prediction of future land use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs, A.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land Use Change: Improving the prediction of future land use patterns. Man has been altering his living environment since prehistoric times and will continue to do so. It is predicted that by 2030 about 90,000 ha will be needed for residential developments in the Netherlands and 55,000 ha

  9. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity ...

  10. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of

  11. Predicting Change in Career Indecision from a Self-Psychology Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Steven B.

    1987-01-01

    Proposes a hierarchical model based on self-psychology that predicts a reduction in career indecision after a career intervention. Tested model's validity in a study of college students (N=107). Study showed model partially supported with goal instability, self-esteem, and interest pattern predicting change in career indecision level after career…

  12. Medial Temporal Lobe Activity Predicts Successful Relational Memory Binding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2009-01-01

    Previous neuropsychological findings have implicated medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures in retaining object-location relations over the course of short delays, but MTL effects have not always been reported in neuroimaging investigations with similar short-term memory requirements. Here, we used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to test the hypothesis that the hippocampus and related MTL structures support accurate retention of relational memory representations, even across short delays. On every trial, four objects were presented, each in one of nine possible locations of a three-dimensional grid. Participants were to mentally rotate the grid and then maintain the rotated representation in anticipation of a test stimulus: a rendering of the grid, rotated 90° from the original viewpoint. The test stimulus was either a “match” display, in which object-location relations were intact, or a “mismatch” display, in which one object occupied a new, previously unfilled location (mismatch position), or two objects had swapped locations (mismatch swap). Encoding phase activation in anterior and posterior regions of the left hippocampus, and in bilateral perirhinal cortex, predicted subsequent accuracy on the short-term memory decision, as did bilateral posterior hippocampal activity after the test stimulus. Notably, activation in these posterior hippocampal regions was also sensitive to the degree to which object-location bindings were preserved in the test stimulus; activation was greatest for match displays, followed by mismatch-position displays, and finally mismatch-swap displays. These results indicate that the hippocampus and related MTL structures contribute to successful encoding and retrieval of relational information in visual short-term memory. PMID:18171929

  13. Reward prediction-related increases and decreases in tonic neuronal activity of the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken-Ichi eOkada

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The neuromodulators serotonin, acetylcholine, and dopamine have been proposed to play important roles in the execution of movement, control of several forms of attentional behavior, and reinforcement learning. While the response pattern of midbrain dopaminergic neurons and its specific role in reinforcement learning have been revealed, the roles of the other neuromodulators remain elusive. Reportedly, neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus, one major source of serotonin, continually track the state of expectation of future rewards by showing a correlated response to the start of a behavioral task, reward cue presentation, and reward delivery. Here, we show that neurons in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTN, one major source of acetylcholine, showed similar encoding of the expectation of future rewards by a systematic increase or decrease in tonic activity. We recorded and analyzed PPTN neuronal activity in monkeys during a reward conditioned visually guided saccade task. The firing patterns of many PPTN neurons were tonically increased or decreased throughout the task period. The tonic activity pattern of neurons was correlated with their encoding of the predicted reward value; neurons exhibiting an increase or decrease in tonic activity showed higher or lower activity in the large reward-predicted trials, respectively. Tonic activity and reward-related modulation ended around the time of reward delivery. Additionally, some tonic changes in activity started prior to the appearance of the initial stimulus, and were related to the anticipatory fixational behavior. A partially overlapping population of neurons showed both the initial anticipatory response and subsequent predicted reward value-dependent activity modulation by their systematic increase or decrease of tonic activity. These bi-directional reward- and anticipatory behavior-related modulation patterns are suitable for the presumed role of the PPTN in reward processing and

  14. Chromospheric changes in K stars with activity

    CERN Document Server

    Vieytes, Mariela; Diaz, Rodrigo

    2009-01-01

    We study the differences in chromospheric structure induced in K stars by stellar activity, to expand our previous work for G stars, including the Sun as a star. We selected six stars of spectral type K with 0.82$activity levels. We computed chromospheric models for the stars in the sample, in most cases in two different moments of activity. The models were constructed to obtain the best possible match with the Ca II K and the H$\\beta$ observed profiles. We also computed in detail the net radiative losses for each model to constrain the heating mechanism that can maintain the structure in the atmosphere. We find a strong correlation between these losses and \\Sc, the index generally used as a proxy for activity, as we found for G stars.

  15. Predicting and preventing the future: actively managing multiple sclerosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hutchinson, Michael

    2012-02-01

    Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has a highly variable clinical course but a number of demographic, clinical and MRI features can guide the clinician in the assessment of disease activity and likely disability outcome. It is also clear that the inflammatory activity in the first five years of relapsing-remitting MS results in the neurodegenerative changes seen in secondary progressive MS 10-15 years later. While conventional first-line disease modifying therapy has an effect on relapses, about one third of patients have a suboptimal response to treatment. With the advent of highly active second-line therapies with their evident marked suppression of inflammation, the clinician now has the tools to manage the course of relapsing-remitting MS more effectively. The development of treatment optimisation recommendations based on the clinical response to first-line therapies can guide the neurologist in more active management of the early course of relapsing-remitting MS, with the aim of preventing both acute inflammatory axonal injury and the neurodegenerative process which leads to secondary progressive MS.

  16. Bi-directional SIFT predicts a subset of activating mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, William; Zhang, Yan; Mukhyala, Kiran; Lazarus, Robert A; Zhang, Zemin

    2009-12-14

    Advancements in sequencing technologies have empowered recent efforts to identify polymorphisms and mutations on a global scale. The large number of variations and mutations found in these projects requires high-throughput tools to identify those that are most likely to have an impact on function. Numerous computational tools exist for predicting which mutations are likely to be functional, but none that specifically attempt to identify mutations that result in hyperactivation or gain-of-function. Here we present a modified version of the SIFT (Sorting Intolerant from Tolerant) algorithm that utilizes protein sequence alignments with homologous sequences to identify functional mutations based on evolutionary fitness. We show that this bi-directional SIFT (B-SIFT) is capable of identifying experimentally verified activating mutants from multiple datasets. B-SIFT analysis of large-scale cancer genotyping data identified potential activating mutations, some of which we have provided detailed structural evidence to support. B-SIFT could prove to be a valuable tool for efforts in protein engineering as well as in identification of functional mutations in cancer.

  17. Brain Monoamine Oxidase-A Activity Predicts Trait Aggression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Kriplani, Aarti; Logan, Jean; Tomasi, Dardo; Williams, Benjamin; Telang, Frank; Shumay, Elena; Biegon, Anat; Craig, Ian W.; Henn, Fritz; Wang, Gene-Jack; Volkow, Nora D.; Fowler, Joanna S.

    2008-01-01

    The genetic deletion of monoamine oxidase A (MAO A, an enzyme which breaks down the monoamine neurotransmitters norepinephrine, serotonin and dopamine) produces aggressive phenotypes across species. Therefore, a common polymorphism in the MAO A gene (MAOA, MIM 309850, referred to as high or low based on transcription in non-neuronal cells) has been investigated in a number of externalizing behavioral and clinical phenotypes. These studies provide evidence linking the low MAOA genotype and violent behavior but only through interaction with severe environmental stressors during childhood. Here, we hypothesized that in healthy adult males the gene product of MAO A in the brain, rather than the gene per se, would be associated with regulating the concentration of brain amines involved in trait aggression. Brain MAO A activity was measured in-vivo in healthy non-smoking men with positron emission tomography using a radioligand specific for MAO A (clorgyline labeled with carbon 11). Trait aggression was measured with the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ). Here we report for the first time that brain MAO A correlates inversely with the MPQ trait measure of aggression (but not with other personality traits) such that the lower the MAO A activity in cortical and subcortical brain regions the higher the self-reported aggression (in both MAOA genotype groups) contributing to more than a third of the variability. Since trait aggression is a measure used to predict antisocial behavior, these results underscore the relevance of MAO A as a neurochemical substrate of aberrant aggression. PMID:18463263

  18. Cultural Change, Human Activity, and Cognitive Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauvain, Mary; Munroe, Robert L.

    2012-01-01

    Differential cognitive performance across cultural contexts has been a standard result in comparative research. Here we discuss how societal changes occurring when a small-scale traditional community incorporates elements from industrialized society may contribute to cognitive development, and we illustrate this with an analysis of the cognitive…

  19. Cultural Change, Human Activity, and Cognitive Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauvain, Mary; Munroe, Robert L.

    2012-01-01

    Differential cognitive performance across cultural contexts has been a standard result in comparative research. Here we discuss how societal changes occurring when a small-scale traditional community incorporates elements from industrialized society may contribute to cognitive development, and we illustrate this with an analysis of the cognitive…

  20. Electrocardiographic changes improve risk prediction in asymptomatic persons age 65 years or above without cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Godsk; Jensen, Jan S; Marott, Jacob L;

    2014-01-01

    : In all, 6,991 participants from the Copenhagen Heart Study attending an examination at age ≥65 years were included. ECG changes were defined as Q waves, ST-segment depression, T-wave changes, ventricular conduction defects, and left ventricular hypertrophy based on the Minnesota code. The primary...... with conventional risk factors. All ECG changes except 1 univariably predicted both endpoints. Event rates of ECG changes versus no ECG changes were respectively 41.4% versus 27.8% and 64.6% versus 50.8%. When added to existing risk scores, ECG changes independently increased the risk of both endpoints. Fatal CVD......BACKGROUND: Risk prediction in elderly patients is increasingly relevant due to longer life expectancy. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine whether electrocardiographic (ECG) changes provide prognostic information incremental to current risk models and to the conventional risk factors. METHODS...

  1. Recognition and prediction of individual and combined muscular activation modes via surface EMG analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Graupe

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses how recognition of individual and combined muscular activation modes (functions and the prediction of intended such modes can be accomplished by identifying parameters of noninvasive surface EMG signals. It outlines the mathematical analysis of surface EMG signal to facilitate such recognition and related prediction, including recognition of intention (in terms of attempts to activate motor functions from the EMG, without accessing the CNS itself, in cases where a patient, say, a high-level amputee does not have the final-activation muscles and joints. The EMG activity thus allows to interpret and recognize CNS commands from minute variations in the parameters of surface EMG signals that record changes in the firing of motor neurons triggering contractions in related muscle fibers. We note that although in popular media this is sometimes referred to as detection of “thoughts”, no thoughts are detected, but only motor-outcomes of thoughts as found in the EMG signal. Examples of concrete cases where such recognition or prediction were accomplished in the author’s lab and in devices that came out of that lab, are given as are references to these in the literature over the last 35 years.

  2. Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randin, Christophe F.; Engler, Robin; Normand, Signe

    2009-01-01

    of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here, we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10 × 10' grid...... in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10 × 10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area......Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates...

  3. The prediction of induced activity levels in and around NIMROD

    CERN Document Server

    Hack, R C

    1973-01-01

    Comparisons are reported between measured and predicted levels of induced radioactivity for a number of irradiation conditions. Good agreement was found between experimental measurements and fairly simple methods of prediction developed at CERN.

  4. Is Personality Fixed? Personality Changes as Much as "Variable" Economic Factors and More Strongly Predicts Changes to Life Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J.; Wood, Alex M.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    2013-01-01

    Personality is the strongest and most consistent cross-sectional predictor of high subjective well-being. Less predictive economic factors, such as higher income or improved job status, are often the focus of applied subjective well-being research due to a perception that they can change whereas personality cannot. As such there has been limited…

  5. A new statistical tool to predict phenology under climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, P.; Hemerik, L.; Visser, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change will likely affect the phenology of trophic levels differently and thereby disrupt the phenological synchrony between predators and prey. To predict this disruption of the synchrony under different climate change scenarios, good descriptive models for the phenology of the different sp

  6. Physical activity and 3-year BMI change in overweight and obese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh, Andrew; Campbell, Michele; Ukoumunne, Obioha C; Gerner, Bibi; Wake, Melissa

    2013-02-01

    Targeting physical activity (PA) is a mainstay in obesity treatment, but its BMI benefits are poorly quantified. We studied long-term predictive PA-BMI relationships in overweight/obese children presenting to primary care. Three-year follow-up of 182 overweight/obese 5- to 10-year-olds recruited from 45 Melbourne general practices. 7-day accelerometry (counts per minute, cpm). change in BMI z score, BMI category, and clinically significant BMI improvement (z score change ≥0.5). Linear and logistic regression. Mean (SD) baseline and 3-year BMI z scores were 1.8 (0.6) and 1.8 (0.7), and mean (SD) activity scores 334 (111) and 284 (104) cpm, respectively. Baseline activity did not predict BMI change. However, for every 100 cpm increase in change in activity over 3 years, BMI z score fell by 0.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.20; P = .006). There were also trends toward greater odds of staying in the same, versus moving to a higher, BMI category (odds ratio 1.85, 95% CI 0.99-3.46) and clinically significant BMI improvement (odds ratio 1.96, 95% CI 0.90-4.27; P = .09). Change in percentage time spent in moderate-vigorous (P = .01), but not sedentary (P = .39) or light (P = .59), activity predicted reduced BMI z score. Sustained increase in moderate-vigorous PA predicts reducing BMI z score over 3 years in overweight/obese children presenting to primary care. However, the small BMI change associated with even the largest activity changes may explain disappointing BMI outcomes of brief primary care interventions targeting PA.

  7. Who will increase their physical activity? Predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutton Stephen

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim was to identify predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort to improve understanding of factors influencing change in physical activity. Methods ProActive is a physical activity promotion trial that took place in Eastern England (1999-2004. 365 offspring of people with type 2 diabetes underwent measurement of physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE using heart rate monitoring, fitness, and anthropometric and biochemical status at baseline and 1 year (n = 321. Linear regression was used to quantify the associations between baseline demographic, clinical, psychosocial and behavioural variables and change in PAEE over 12 months. This study is registered as ISRCTN61323766. Results ProActive participants significantly increased their PAEE by 0.6 kj/min (SD 4.2, p = 0.006 over one year, the equivalent of around 20 minutes brisk walking/day. Male sex and higher fitness at baseline predicted increase in PAEE. No significant associations were found for any other variables. Very few baseline demographic, clinical, psychosocial and behavioural predictors were associated with change in objectively measured physical activity. Conclusions Traditional baseline determinants of self-reported physical activity targeted by behavioural interventions may be relatively weak predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of factors influencing change in physical activity to inform the development and targeting of interventions.

  8. Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yongfei

    2003-01-01

    Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification. These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and low-18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1) did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.

  9. Personalized metabolomics for predicting glucose tolerance changes in sedentary women after high-intensity interval training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuehnbaum, Naomi L; Gillen, Jenna B; Gibala, Martin J; Britz-McKibbin, Philip

    2014-08-28

    High-intensity interval training (HIIT) offers a practical approach for enhancing cardiorespiratory fitness, however its role in improving glucose regulation among sedentary yet normoglycemic women remains unclear. Herein, multi-segment injection capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry is used as a high-throughput platform in metabolomics to assess dynamic responses of overweight/obese women (BMI > 25, n = 11) to standardized oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) performed before and after a 6-week HIIT intervention. Various statistical methods were used to classify plasma metabolic signatures associated with post-prandial glucose and/or training status when using a repeated measures/cross-over study design. Branched-chain/aromatic amino acids and other intermediates of urea cycle and carnitine metabolism decreased over time in plasma after oral glucose loading. Adaptive exercise-induced changes to plasma thiol redox and orthinine status were measured for trained subjects while at rest in a fasting state. A multi-linear regression model was developed to predict changes in glucose tolerance based on a panel of plasma metabolites measured for naïve subjects in their untrained state. Since treatment outcomes to physical activity are variable between-subjects, prognostic markers offer a novel approach to screen for potential negative responders while designing lifestyle modifications that maximize the salutary benefits of exercise for diabetes prevention on an individual level.

  10. Performance prediction for Grid workflow activities based on features-ranked RBF network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Jie; Duan Rubing; Farrukh Nadeem

    2009-01-01

    Accurate performance prediction of Grid workflow activities can help Grid schedulers map activities to appropriate Grid sites. This paper describes an approach based on features-ranked RBF neural network to predict the performance of Grid workflow activities. Experimental results for two kinds of real world Grid workflow activities are presented to show effectiveness of our approach.

  11. Emotionally biased cognitive processes: the weakest link predicts prospective changes in depressive symptom severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everaert, Jonas; Duyck, Wouter; Koster, Ernst H W

    2015-01-01

    Emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are predictive of future depressive symptoms. It remains unknown, however, how these biased cognitive processes interact to predict depressive symptom levels in the long-term. In the present study, we tested the predictive value of two integrative approaches to model relations between multiple biased cognitive processes, namely the additive (i.e., cognitive processes have a cumulative effect) vs. the weakest link (i.e., the dominant pathogenic process is important) model. We also tested whether these integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict prospective changes in depressive symptom severity. At Time 1, participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity and emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory. At Time 2, one year later, participants were reassessed to determine depressive symptom levels and perceived stress. Results revealed that the weakest link model had incremental validity over the additive model in predicting prospective changes in depressive symptoms, though both models explained a significant proportion of variance in the change in depressive symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. None of the integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict changes in depressive symptomatology. These findings suggest that the best cognitive marker of the evolution in depressive symptoms is the cognitive process that is dominantly biased toward negative material, which operates independent from experienced stress. This highlights the importance of considering idiographic cognitive profiles with multiple cognitive processes for understanding and modifying effects of cognitive biases in depression.

  12. Predictive active disturbance rejection control for processes with time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qinling; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2014-07-01

    Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) has been shown to be an effective tool in dealing with real world problems of dynamic uncertainties, disturbances, nonlinearities, etc. This paper addresses its existing limitations with plants that have a large transport delay. In particular, to overcome the delay, the extended state observer (ESO) in ADRC is modified to form a predictive ADRC, leading to significant improvements in the transient response and stability characteristics, as shown in extensive simulation studies and hardware-in-the-loop tests, as well as in the frequency response analysis. In this research, it is assumed that the amount of delay is approximately known, as is the approximated model of the plant. Even with such uncharacteristic assumptions for ADRC, the proposed method still exhibits significant improvements in both performance and robustness over the existing methods such as the dead-time compensator based on disturbance observer and the Filtered Smith Predictor, in the context of some well-known problems of chemical reactor and boiler control problems.

  13. Traction force dynamics predict gap formation in activated endothelium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Erik T; van Nieuw Amerongen, Geerten P; van Hinsbergh, Victor W M; Hordijk, Peter L

    2016-09-10

    In many pathological conditions the endothelium becomes activated and dysfunctional, resulting in hyperpermeability and plasma leakage. No specific therapies are available yet to control endothelial barrier function, which is regulated by inter-endothelial junctions and the generation of acto-myosin-based contractile forces in the context of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions. However, the spatiotemporal distribution and stimulus-induced reorganization of these integral forces remain largely unknown. Traction force microscopy of human endothelial monolayers was used to visualize contractile forces in resting cells and during thrombin-induced hyperpermeability. Simultaneously, information about endothelial monolayer integrity, adherens junctions and cytoskeletal proteins (F-actin) were captured. This revealed a heterogeneous distribution of traction forces, with nuclear areas showing lower and cell-cell junctions higher traction forces than the whole-monolayer average. Moreover, junctional forces were asymmetrically distributed among neighboring cells. Force vector orientation analysis showed a good correlation with the alignment of F-actin and revealed contractile forces in newly formed filopodia and lamellipodia-like protrusions within the monolayer. Finally, unstable areas, showing high force fluctuations within the monolayer were prone to form inter-endothelial gaps upon stimulation with thrombin. To conclude, contractile traction forces are heterogeneously distributed within endothelial monolayers and force instability, rather than force magnitude, predicts the stimulus-induced formation of intercellular gaps. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Electrophysiological correlates of competitor activation predict retrieval-induced forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellerstedt, Robin; Johansson, Mikael

    2014-06-01

    The very act of retrieval modifies the accessibility of memory for knowledge and past events and can also cause forgetting. A prominent theory of such retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) holds that retrieval recruits inhibition to overcome interference from competing memories, rendering these memories inaccessible. The present study tested a fundamental tenet of the inhibitory-control account: The competition-dependence assumption. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants engaged in a competitive retrieval task. Competition levels were manipulated within the retrieval task by varying the cue-item associative strength of competing items. In order to temporally separate ERP correlates of competitor activation and target retrieval, memory was probed with the sequential presentation of 2 cues: A category cue, to reactivate competitors, and a target cue. As predicted by the inhibitory-control account, competitors with strong compared with weak cue-competitor association were more susceptible to forgetting. Furthermore, competition-sensitive ERP modulations, elicited by the category cue, were observed over anterior regions and reflected individual differences in ensuing forgetting. The present study demonstrates ERP correlates of the reactivation of tightly bound associated memories (the competitors) and provides support for the inhibitory-control account of RIF.

  15. Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhen-Wei Xia; Wen-Pu Zhou; Wen-Jun Cui; Xue-Hong Zhang; Qing-Xiang Shen; Yun-Zhu Li; Shan-Chang Yu

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1)and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (△hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities.METHODS: Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physicalchemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5α. Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured.RESULTS: rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of △hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1.CONCLUSION: Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. △hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. △hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

  16. Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhen-Wei; Zhou, Wen-Pu; Cui, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Shen, Qing-Xiang; Li, Yun-Zhu; Yu, Shan-Chang

    2004-08-15

    To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1) and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (delta hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities. Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physical-chemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO-1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5alpha. Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured. rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase-1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of delta hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1. Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. delta hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. delta hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

  17. Which Moral Foundations Predict Willingness to Make Lifestyle Changes to Avert Climate Change in the USA?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Janis L.; McLeod, Poppy; Bloomfield, Robert; Allred, Shorna

    2016-01-01

    Jonathan Haidt’s Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection (ΔAICc__). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA. PMID:27760207

  18. Activism or "Slacktivism?": Digital Media and Organizing for Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Cerise L.

    2015-01-01

    The influence of social media and technological developments has changed how groups and organizations advocating for social change generate awareness and participation in their causes. In this single class activity students will (a) analyze notions of activism and "slacktivism" from scholarly and popular sources to apply these concepts…

  19. Activism or "Slacktivism?": Digital Media and Organizing for Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Cerise L.

    2015-01-01

    The influence of social media and technological developments has changed how groups and organizations advocating for social change generate awareness and participation in their causes. In this single class activity students will (a) analyze notions of activism and "slacktivism" from scholarly and popular sources to apply these concepts…

  20. The motivation to be sedentary predicts weight change when sedentary behaviors are reduced

    OpenAIRE

    Paluch Rocco A; Cavanaugh Meghan D; Roemmich James N; Epstein Leonard H

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Obesity is correlated with a sedentary lifestyle, and the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with obesity. The present study tests the hypothesis that the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with weight change when children reduce their sedentary behavior. Methods The motivation to be active or sedentary, changes in weight, and accelerometer assessed physical activity were collected for 55 families with overweight/obese children who participa...

  1. Physics-based enzyme design: predicting binding affinity and catalytic activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirin, Sarah; Pearlman, David A; Sherman, Woody

    2014-12-01

    Computational enzyme design is an emerging field that has yielded promising success stories, but where numerous challenges remain. Accurate methods to rapidly evaluate possible enzyme design variants could provide significant value when combined with experimental efforts by reducing the number of variants needed to be synthesized and speeding the time to reach the desired endpoint of the design. To that end, extending our computational methods to model the fundamental physical-chemical principles that regulate activity in a protocol that is automated and accessible to a broad population of enzyme design researchers is essential. Here, we apply a physics-based implicit solvent MM-GBSA scoring approach to enzyme design and benchmark the computational predictions against experimentally determined activities. Specifically, we evaluate the ability of MM-GBSA to predict changes in affinity for a steroid binder protein, catalytic turnover for a Kemp eliminase, and catalytic activity for α-Gliadin peptidase variants. Using the enzyme design framework developed here, we accurately rank the most experimentally active enzyme variants, suggesting that this approach could provide enrichment of active variants in real-world enzyme design applications.

  2. Utilizing Selected Di- and Trinucleotides of siRNA to Predict RNAi Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Han

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Small interfering RNAs (siRNAs induce posttranscriptional gene silencing in various organisms. siRNAs targeted to different positions of the same gene show different effectiveness; hence, predicting siRNA activity is a crucial step. In this paper, we developed and evaluated a powerful tool named “siRNApred” with a new mixed feature set to predict siRNA activity. To improve the prediction accuracy, we proposed 2-3NTs as our new features. A Random Forest siRNA activity prediction model was constructed using the feature set selected by our proposed Binary Search Feature Selection (BSFS algorithm. Experimental data demonstrated that the binding site of the Argonaute protein correlates with siRNA activity. “siRNApred” is effective for selecting active siRNAs, and the prediction results demonstrate that our method can outperform other current siRNA activity prediction methods in terms of prediction accuracy.

  3. Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Philip M. Polgreen; Forrest D. Nelson; George R. Neumann

    2007-01-01

    Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates...

  4. Does change in temperament predict change in schizoid personality disorder? A methodological framework and illustration from the Longitudinal Study of Personality Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzenweger, Mark F; Willett, John B

    2009-01-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) have been thought historically to be enduring, inflexible, and set in psychological stone relatively firmly; however, empirical findings from recent prospective multiwave longitudinal studies establish otherwise. Nearly all modern longitudinal studies of personality disorder have documented considerable change in PDs over time, suggesting considerable flexibility and plasticity in this realm of psychopathology. The factors and mechanisms of change in the PDs remain essentially opaque, and this area of PD research is just beginning to be probed using candidate predictors of change, such as personality systems. In this report, we investigate whether change in temperament dimensions (emotionality, activity, and sociability) predicts change in schizoid personality disorder. We present a latent growth framework for addressing this question and provide an illustration of the approach using data from the Longitudinal Study of Personality Disorders. Schizoid personality disorder was assessed using two different methodologies (structured psychiatric interview and self-report) and temperament was assessed using a well-known psychometric measure of temperament. All constructs were measured at three time points over a 4-year time period. To analyze these panel data, we fitted a covariance structure model that hypothesized simultaneous relationships between initial levels and rates of change in temperament and initial levels and rates of change in schizoid personality disorder. We found that rates of change in the core temperament dimensions studied do not predict rates of change in schizoid personality over time. We discuss the methodological advantages of the latent growth approach and the substantive meaning of the findings for change in schizoid personality disorder.

  5. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng, Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2016-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  6. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L.L.; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng , Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  7. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L.L.; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng , Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and ...

  8. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng, Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  9. Calibration of Numerical Model for Shoreline Change Prediction Using Satellite Imagery Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Sutikno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calibration of numerical model for shoreline change prediction using satellite imagery data in muddy beach. Tanjung Motong beach, a muddy beach that is suffered high abrasion in Rangsang Island, Riau province, Indonesia was picked as study area. The primary numerical modeling tool used in this research was GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline change, which has been successfully applied in many case studies of shoreline change phenomena on a sandy beach.The model was calibrated using two extracted coastlines satellite imagery data, such as Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS. The extracted coastline data were analyzed by using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System tool to get the rate of shoreline change from 1990 to 2014. The main purpose of the calibration process was to find out the appropriate value for K 1 and K coefficients so that the predicted shoreline change had an acceptable correlation with the output of the satellite data processing. The result of this research showed that the shoreline change prediction had a good correlation with the historical evidence data in Tanjung Motong coast. It means that the GENESIS tool is not only applicable for shoreline prediction in sandy beach but also in muddy beach.

  10. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E

    2013-01-19

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.

  11. Analysis Of The Method Of Predictive Control Applicable To Active Magnetic Suspension Systems Of Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurnyta-Mazurek Paulina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional controllers are usually synthesized on the basis of already known parameters associated with the model developed for the object to be controlled. However, sometimes it proves extremely difficult or even infeasible to find out these parameters, in particular when they subject to changes during the exploitation lifetime. If so, much more sophisticated control methods have to be applied, e.g. the method of predictive control. Thus, the paper deals with application of the predictive control approach to follow-up tracking of an active magnetic suspension where the mathematical and simulation models for such a control system are disclosed with preliminary results from simulation investigations of the control system in question.

  12. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  13. Changes in salivary estradiol predict changes in women's preferences for vocal masculinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanski, Katarzyna; Hahn, Amanda C; Fisher, Claire I; DeBruine, Lisa M; Feinberg, David R; Jones, Benedict C

    2014-08-01

    Although many studies have reported that women's preferences for masculine physical characteristics in men change systematically during the menstrual cycle, the hormonal mechanisms underpinning these changes are currently poorly understood. Previous studies investigating the relationships between measured hormone levels and women's masculinity preferences tested only judgments of men's facial attractiveness. Results of these studies suggested that preferences for masculine characteristics in men's faces were related to either women's estradiol or testosterone levels. To investigate the hormonal correlates of within-woman variation in masculinity preferences further, here we measured 62 women's salivary estradiol, progesterone, and testosterone levels and their preferences for masculine characteristics in men's voices in five weekly test sessions. Multilevel modeling of these data showed that changes in salivary estradiol were the best predictor of changes in women's preferences for vocal masculinity. These results complement other recent research implicating estradiol in women's mate preferences, attention to courtship signals, sexual motivation, and sexual strategies, and are the first to link women's voice preferences directly to measured hormone levels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; White, Joseph D.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Cade, Brian S.; Zygo, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predictive ability, conservation relevance of associations may not be clear without also knowing the magnitude and variability of predicted changes in response variables. 2. We introduce a method for evaluating the conservation relevance of organism–environment relations that employs confidence intervals for predicted changes in response variables. The confidence intervals are compared to a preselected magnitude of change that marks a threshold (trigger) for conservation action. To demonstrate the approach, we used a case study from the Chihuahuan Desert involving relations between avian richness and broad-scale patterns of shrubland. We considered relations for three winters and two spatial extents (1- and 2-km-radius areas) and compared predicted changes in richness to three thresholds (10%, 20% and 30% change). For each threshold, we examined 48 relations. 3. The method identified seven, four and zero conservation-relevant changes in mean richness for the 10%, 20% and 30% thresholds respectively. These changes were associated with major (20%) changes in shrubland cover, mean patch size, the coefficient of variation for patch size, or edge density but not with major changes in shrubland patch density. The relative rarity of conservation-relevant changes indicated that, overall, the relations had little practical value for informing conservation decisions about avian richness. 4. The approach we illustrate is appropriate for various response and predictor variables measured at any temporal or spatial scale. The method is broadly applicable across ecological

  15. Dynamic Changes of Nitrate Reductase Activity within 24 Hours

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the circadian rhythm of nitrate re- ductase activity (NRA) in plant. [Method] The wheat plants at heading stage were used as the materials for the measurement of dynamic changes of nitrate reductase activity (NRA) within 24 h under the conditions of constant high temperature. [Resulti The fluctuation of NRA in wheat changed greatly from 20:00 pm to 11:00 am. The enzyme activity remained constant, but at 14:00 the enzyme activity was the high- est, higher than all the other time points except the enzyme activity measured at11:00. The enzyme activity was the lowest of 17:00, which was lower than all the other time points except the enzyme activity measured at 2:00. [Conclusion] There were autonomous rhythm changes of NRA in wheat in a certain degree.

  16. Changing word usage predicts changing word durations in New Zealand English.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sóskuthy, Márton; Hay, Jennifer

    2017-09-01

    This paper investigates the emergence of lexicalized effects of word usage on word duration by looking at parallel changes in usage and duration over 130years in New Zealand English. Previous research has found that frequent words are shorter, informative words are longer, and words in utterance-final position are also longer. It has also been argued that some of these patterns are not simply online adjustments, but are incorporated into lexical representations. While these studies tend to focus on the synchronic aspects of such patterns, our corpus shows that word-usage patterns and word durations are not static over time. Many words change in duration and also change with respect to frequency, informativity and likelihood of occurring utterance-finally. Analysis of changing word durations over this time period shows substantial patterns of co-adaptation between word usage and word durations. Words that are increasing in frequency are becoming shorter. Words that are increasing/decreasing in informativity show a change in the same direction in duration (e.g. increasing informativity is associated with increasing duration). And words that are increasingly appearing utterance-finally are lengthening. These effects exist independently of the local effects of the predictors. For example, words that are increasing utterance-finally lengthen in all positions, including utterance-medially. We show that these results are compatible with a number of different views about lexical representations, but they cannot be explained without reference to a production-perception loop that allows speakers to update their representations dynamically on the basis of their experience. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Pupil diameter tracks changes in control state predicted by the adaptive gain theory of locus coeruleus function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilzenrat, Mark S; Nieuwenhuis, Sander; Jepma, Marieke; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2010-05-01

    An important dimension of cognitive control is the adaptive regulation of the balance between exploitation (pursuing known sources of reward) and exploration (seeking new ones) in response to changes in task utility. Recent studies have suggested that the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system may play an important role in this function and that pupil diameter can be used to index locus coeruleus activity. On the basis of this, we reasoned that pupil diameter may correlate closely with control state and associated changes in behavior. Specifically, we predicted that increases in baseline pupil diameter would be associated with decreases in task utility and disengagement from the task (exploration), whereas reduced baseline diameter (but increases in task-evoked dilations) would be associated with task engagement (exploitation). Findings in three experiments were consistent with these predictions, suggesting that pupillometry may be useful as an index of both control state and, indirectly, locus coeruleus function.

  18. Predicting mountain lion activity using radiocollars equipped with mercury tip-sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janis, Michael W.; Clark, Joseph D.; Johnson, Craig

    1999-01-01

    Radiotelemetry collars with tip-sensors have long been used to monitor wildlife activity. However, comparatively few researchers have tested the reliability of the technique on the species being studied. To evaluate the efficacy of using tip-sensors to assess mountain lion (Puma concolor) activity, we radiocollared 2 hand-reared mountain lions and simultaneously recorded their behavior and the associated telemetry signal characteristics. We noted both the number of pulse-rate changes and the percentage of time the transmitter emitted a fast pulse rate (i.e., head up) within sampling intervals ranging from 1-5 minutes. Based on 27 hours of observations, we were able to correctly distinguish between active and inactive behaviors >93% of the time using a logistic regression model. We present several models to predict activity of mountain lions; the selection of which to us would depend on study objectives and logistics. Our results indicate that field protocols that use only pulse-rate changes to indicate activity can lead to significant classification errors.

  19. Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moor, Helen

    2017-01-01

    Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence

  20. Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

    OpenAIRE

    Behshid Garrusi; Saeide Garousi; Baneshi, Mohammad R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultura...

  1. Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change in seven typical catchments across China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ran; Tao, Fulu

    2017-12-15

    Climate change and human activities are two major factors affecting water resource change. It is important to understand the roles of the major factors in affecting runoff change in different basins for watershed management. Here, we investigated the trends in climate and runoff in seven typical catchments in seven basins across China from 1961 to 2014. Then we attributed the runoff change to climate change and human activities in each catchment and in three time periods (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), using the VIC model and long-term runoff observation data. During 1961-2014, temperature increased significantly, while the trends in precipitation were insignificant in most of the catchments and inconsistent among the catchments. The runoff in most of the catchments showed a decreasing trend except the Yingluoxia catchment in the northwestern China. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change varied in different catchments and time periods. In the 1980s, climate change contributed more to runoff change than human activities, which was 84%, 59%, -66%, -50%, 59%, 94%, and -59% in the Nianzishan, Yingluoxia, Xiahui, Yangjiaping, Sanjiangkou, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively. After that, human activities had played a more essential role in runoff change. In the 1990s and 2000s, human activities contributed more to runoff change than in the 1980s. The contribution by human activities accounted for 84%, -68%, and 67% in the Yingluoxia, Xiahui, and Sanjiangkou catchment, respectively, in the 1990s; and -96%, -67%, -94%, and -142% in the Nianzishan, Yangjiaping, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively, in the 2000s. It is also noted that after 2000 human activities caused decrease in runoff in all catchments except the Yingluoxia. Our findings highlight that the effects of human activities, such as increase in water withdrawal, land use/cover change, operation of dams and reservoirs, should be well managed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  2. Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean; Shrestha, Sourya; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Vuong, Holly

    2012-05-07

    Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

  3. A set of nearest neighbor parameters for predicting the enthalpy change of RNA secondary structure formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhi John; Turner, Douglas H; Mathews, David H

    2006-01-01

    A complete set of nearest neighbor parameters to predict the enthalpy change of RNA secondary structure formation was derived. These parameters can be used with available free energy nearest neighbor parameters to extend the secondary structure prediction of RNA sequences to temperatures other than 37 degrees C. The parameters were tested by predicting the secondary structures of sequences with known secondary structure that are from organisms with known optimal growth temperatures. Compared with the previous set of enthalpy nearest neighbor parameters, the sensitivity of base pair prediction improved from 65.2 to 68.9% at optimal growth temperatures ranging from 10 to 60 degrees C. Base pair probabilities were predicted with a partition function and the positive predictive value of structure prediction is 90.4% when considering the base pairs in the lowest free energy structure with pairing probability of 0.99 or above. Moreover, a strong correlation is found between the predicted melting temperatures of RNA sequences and the optimal growth temperatures of the host organism. This indicates that organisms that live at higher temperatures have evolved RNA sequences with higher melting temperatures.

  4. A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Hall, Edward K.

    2012-01-01

    As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

  5. Predicting habitat suitability and geographic distribution of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) due to climate change in the coastal areas off Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Claudio; Andrade, Isabel; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Hormazabal, Samuel; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio; Böhm, Gabriela

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change on ocean conditions will have impacts on fish stocks, primarily through physiological and behavioural effects, such as changes in growth, reproduction, mortality and distribution. Habitat and distribution predictions for marine fishery species under climate change scenarios are important for understanding the overall impacts of such global changes on the human society and on the ecosystem. In this study, we examine the impacts of climate change on anchovy fisheries off Chile using predicted changes in global models according to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) and IPCC high future CO2 emission scenario A2, habitat suitability index (HSI) models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. Predictions of chlorophyll-a were developed using historical Chl-a and SST (2003-2013) satellite data and applying a harmonic model. The results show an increase in SST of up to 2.5 °C by 2055 in the north and central-south area for an A2 scenario. The habitat suitability index model was developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly fisheries and environmental data. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as an abundance index in developing the HSI models and was calculated as the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (m3) in a 10‧ × 10‧ fishing grid square of anchovy, integrated over one month of fishing activity. The environmental data included the distance to coast (DC), thermal (SST) and food availability (Chl-a) conditions. The HSI modelling consists of estimating SI curves based on available evidence regarding the optimum range of environmental conditions for anchovy and estimating an integrated HSI using the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) method. The

  6. CHANGES IN REGIONAL BRAIN ACTIVATION RELATED TO DEPRESSIVE STATE: A 2-YEAR LONGITUDINAL FUNCTIONAL MRI STUDY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opmeer, Esther M; Kortekaas, Rudie; van Tol, Marie-José; Renken, Remco J; Demenescu, Liliana R; Woudstra, Saskia; Ter Horst, Gert J; van Buchem, Mark A; van der Wee, Nic J A; Veltman, Dick J; Aleman, André

    2016-01-01

    Abnormal brain activations during processing of emotional facial expressions in depressed patients have been demonstrated. We investigated the natural course of brain activation in response to emotional faces in depression, indexed by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans preceding and following change in depressive state. We hypothesized a decrease in activation in the amygdala, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and insula with a decrease in depressive pathology. A 2-year longitudinal fMRI study was conducted as part of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. We included 32 healthy controls and 49 depressed patients. During the second scan, 27 patients were in remission (remitters), the other 22 were not (nonremitters). All participants viewed faces with emotional expressions during scanning. Rostral ACC activation during processing of happy faces was predictive of a decrease in depressive state (PFWE = .003). In addition, remitters showed decreased activation of the insula over time (PFWE = .016), specifically during happy faces. Nonremitters displayed increased abnormalities in emotion recognition circuitry during the second scan compared to the first. No effect of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor use was observed. Our results demonstrate that rostral ACC activation may predict changes in depressive state even at 2-year outcome. The association between change in depressed state and change in insula activation provides further evidence for the role of the insula in a network maintaining emotional and motivational states. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Activity changes of the cat paraventricular hypothalamus during stressor exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Pilgaard; Rector, David M; Poe, Gina R

    2004-01-01

    Dorso-medial paraventricular hypothalamus (PVH) activity was assessed by light scattering procedures in freely behaving cats during auditory stressor exposure. Acoustic noise (> 95dB) raised plasma ACTH concentrations, somatic muscle tonus, respiratory frequency and cardiac rates; PVH activity...... and nadir. Isolated pixels appeared opposite in activity pattern to overall changes. We suggest that transient activity increases represent initial PVH neural stress responses, and that subsequent profound declines result from neural inhibitory feedback....

  8. Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Kissling, W. D.; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.; Heyder, U.; Böhning-Gaese, K

    2010-01-01

    Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climat...

  9. In vitro anti-Mycobacterium avium activities of quinolones: predicted active structures and mechanistic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopman, G; Li, J Y; Wang, S; Pearson, A J; Chang, K; Jacobs, M R; Bajaksouzian, S; Ellner, J J

    1994-08-01

    The relationship between the structures of quinolones and their anti-Mycobacterium avium activities has been previously derived by using the Multiple Computer-Automated Structure Evaluation program. A number of substructural constraints required to overcome the resistance of most of the strains have been identified. Nineteen new quinolones which qualify under these substructural requirements were identified by the program and subsequently tested. The results show that the substructural attributes identified by the program produced a successful a priori prediction of the anti-M. avium activities of the new quinolones. All 19 quinolones were found to be active, and 4 of them are as active or better than ciprofloxacin. With these new quinolones, the updated multiple computer-automated structure evaluation program structure-activity relationship analysis has helped to uncover additional information about the nature of the substituents at the C5 and C7 positions needed for optimal inhibitory activity. A possible explanation of drug resistance based on the observation of suicide inactivation of bacterial cytochrome P-450 by the cyclopropylamine moiety has also been proposed and is discussed in this report. Furthermore, we confirm the view that the amount of the uncharged form present in a neutral pH solution plays a crucial role in the drug's penetration ability.

  10. Prediction of knee joint moment changes during walking in response to wedged insole interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinson, Ryan T; Stefanyshyn, Darren J

    2016-04-01

    Wedged insoles are prescribed for medial knee osteoarthritis to reduce the knee adduction moment; however, it is currently not possible to predict which patients will in fact experience reduced moments. The purpose of this study was to identify a simple method using two-dimensional data for predicting the expected change in knee adduction moments with wedged insoles. Knee adduction moments during walking were determined for healthy individuals (n = 15) and individuals with medial knee osteoarthritis (n = 19) while wearing their own shoe without an insole (control), with a 6-mm medial wedge and with a 6-mm lateral wedge. The percent changes relative to control were determined. Then, participants completed single-step trials with each footwear condition where only the changes in mediolateral positions of the knee joint center, shank center of mass, ankle joint center, and foot center of mass relative to control were determined. These variables were used as predictors in regression equations where the change in knee adduction moment during walking was the dependent variable. The change in mediolateral positions of the lower extremity during a single step significantly predicted the change in knee adduction moment during walking for the lateral wedge in both the healthy (R(2) = 0.72, p = 0.008) and knee osteoarthritis (R(2) = 0.52, p = 0.026) groups, and also for the medial wedge in both the healthy (R(2) = 0.67, p = 0.016) and knee osteoarthritis (R(2) = 0.54, p = 0.020) groups. The method of using mediolateral position data from a single-step movement to predict walking biomechanics was successful. These data are relatively simple to collect and analyze, offering the possibility for future incorporation into a wedge prediction system. © IMechE 2016.

  11. [Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

    2013-05-01

    Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

  12. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

  13. The Eyes Have It: Hippocampal Activity Predicts Expression of Memory in Eye Movements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2009-01-01

    ...) with concurrent indirect, eye-movement-based memory measures, we obtained evidence that hippocampal activity predicted expressions of relational memory in subsequent patterns of viewing, even when...

  14. Machine-learning-based calving prediction from activity, lying, and ruminating behaviors in dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchers, M R; Chang, Y M; Proudfoot, K L; Wadsworth, B A; Stone, A E; Bewley, J M

    2017-07-01

    The objective of this study was to use automated activity, lying, and rumination monitors to characterize prepartum behavior and predict calving in dairy cattle. Data were collected from 20 primiparous and 33 multiparous Holstein dairy cattle from September 2011 to May 2013 at the University of Kentucky Coldstream Dairy. The HR Tag (SCR Engineers Ltd., Netanya, Israel) automatically collected neck activity and rumination data in 2-h increments. The IceQube (IceRobotics Ltd., South Queensferry, United Kingdom) automatically collected number of steps, lying time, standing time, number of transitions from standing to lying (lying bouts), and total motion, summed in 15-min increments. IceQube data were summed in 2-h increments to match HR Tag data. All behavioral data were collected for 14 d before the predicted calving date. Retrospective data analysis was performed using mixed linear models to examine behavioral changes by day in the 14 d before calving. Bihourly behavioral differences from baseline values over the 14 d before calving were also evaluated using mixed linear models. Changes in daily rumination time, total motion, lying time, and lying bouts occurred in the 14 d before calving. In the bihourly analysis, extreme values for all behaviors occurred in the final 24 h, indicating that the monitored behaviors may be useful in calving prediction. To determine whether technologies were useful at predicting calving, random forest, linear discriminant analysis, and neural network machine-learning techniques were constructed and implemented using R version 3.1.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). These methods were used on variables from each technology and all combined variables from both technologies. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies at the daily level yielded 100.0% sensitivity and 86.8% specificity. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies in bihourly increments was

  15. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O($10^5$) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO$_2$ using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patter...

  16. Predicting Changes in Cultural Sensitivity among Students of Spanish during Short-Term Study Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinsen, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs of less than a semester are becoming increasingly popular among undergraduate students in the United States. However, little research has examined the changes in students' cultural sensitivity through their participation in such programs or what factors may predict growth and improvement in such areas. This study…

  17. Fat or lean: adjustment of endogenous energy stores to predictable and unpredictable changes in allostatic load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultner, Jannik; Kitaysky, Alexander S.; Welcker, Jorg; Hatch, Scott

    2013-01-01

    1. The ability to store energy endogenously is an important ecological mechanism that allows animals to buffer predictable and unpredictable variation in allostatic load. The secretion of glucocorticoids, which reflects changes in allostatic load, is suggested to play a major role in the adjustment of endogenous stores to these varying conditions.

  18. Emotion regulation predicts change of perceived health in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Middendorp, H; Geenen, R; Sorbi, MJ; van Doornen, LJP; Bijlsma, JWJ

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: To examine whether emotion regulation predicts change of perceived health in patients with rheumatoid arthritis ( RA). Methods: Sixty six patients ( 44 female, 22 male; mean (SD) age 57.7 (11.6) years) participated in a prospective study. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to pred

  19. The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species' trait approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species’ trait approachHenry Lee II, Christina Folger, Deborah A. Reusser, Patrick Clinton, and Rene Graham1 U.S. EPA, Western Ecology Division, Newport, OR USA E-mail: lee.henry@ep...

  20. The Predictive Utility of Hypnotizability: The Change in Suggestibility Produced by Hypnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milling, Leonard S.; Coursen, Elizabeth L.; Shores, Jessica S.; Waszkiewicz, Jolanta A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The predictive utility of hypnotizability, conceptualized as the change in suggestibility produced by a hypnotic induction, was investigated in the suggested reduction of experimental pain. Method: One hundred and seventy-three participants were assessed for nonhypnotic imaginative suggestibility. Thereafter, participants experienced…

  1. Burrowing Behavior of a Deposit Feeding Bivalve Predicts Change in Intertidal Ecosystem State

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, T.J.; Bodnar, W.; Koolhaas, A.; Dekinga, A.; Holthuijsen, S.; Ten Horn, J.; McSweeney, N.; van Gils, J.A.; Piersma, T,

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  2. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Bodnar, Wanda; Koolhaas, Anita; Dekinga, Anne; Holthuijsen, Sander; ten Horn, Job; McSweeney, Niamh; van Gils, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  3. Predicted soil management and climate change effects on SOC in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extensive use of inversion tillage has contributed to the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) and degraded soil health in the southeast U.S.A. Our objective was to predict changes in SOC in a Norfolk loamy sand in Florence, SC under several crop rotations (corn (Zea mays L.)-cotton (Gossypium ssp.), C...

  4. Steps/day ability to predict anthropometric changes is not affected by its plausibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    We evaluated whether treating steps/day data for implausible values (30,000) affected the ability of these data to predict intervention-induced anthropometric (waist circumference, body mass index, percent body fat, and fat mass) changes. Data were from 269 African American participants wh...

  5. The Predictive Utility of Hypnotizability: The Change in Suggestibility Produced by Hypnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milling, Leonard S.; Coursen, Elizabeth L.; Shores, Jessica S.; Waszkiewicz, Jolanta A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The predictive utility of hypnotizability, conceptualized as the change in suggestibility produced by a hypnotic induction, was investigated in the suggested reduction of experimental pain. Method: One hundred and seventy-three participants were assessed for nonhypnotic imaginative suggestibility. Thereafter, participants experienced…

  6. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  7. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C Sudhakar Reddy; Sonali Singh; V K Dadhwal; C S Jha; N Rama Rao; P G Diwakar

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km², which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880–2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multilayer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  8. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke S.C. McCowan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival.

  9. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  10. Leisure Activities and Change in Cognitive Stability: A Multivariate Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mella, Nathalie; Grob, Emmanuelle; Döll, Salomé; Ghisletta, Paolo; de Ribaupierre, Anik

    2017-01-01

    Aging is traditionally associated with cognitive decline, attested by slower reaction times and poorer performance in various cognitive tasks, but also by an increase in intraindividual variability (IIV) in cognitive performance. Results concerning how lifestyle activities protect from cognitive decline are mixed in the literature and all focused on how it affects mean performance. However, IIV has been proven to be an index more sensitive to age differences, and very little is known about the relationships between lifestyle activities and change in IIV in aging. This longitudinal study explores the association between frequency of physical, social, intellectual, artistic, or cultural activities and age-related change in various cognitive abilities, considering both mean performance and IIV. Ninety-six participants, aged 64–93 years, underwent a battery of cognitive tasks at four measurements over a seven-year period, and filled out a lifestyle activity questionnaire. Linear multilevel models were used to analyze the associations between change in cognitive performance and five types of activities. Results showed that the practice of leisure activities was more strongly associated with IIV than with mean performance, both when considering overall level and change in performance. Relationships with IIV were dependent of the cognitive tasks considered and overall results showed protective effects of cultural, physical and intellectual activities on IIV. These results underline the need for considering IIV in the study of age-related cognitive change. PMID:28257047

  11. Predicting enhancer activity and variant impact using gkm-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Michael A

    2017-01-25

    We participated in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation eQTL challenge to further test computational models of regulatory variant impact and their association with human disease. Our prediction model is based on a discriminative gapped-kmer SVM (gkm-SVM) trained on genome-wide chromatin accessibility data in the cell type of interest. The comparisons with massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA) in lymphoblasts show that gkm-SVM is among the most accurate prediction models even though all other models used the MPRA data for model training, and gkm-SVM did not. In addition, we compare gkm-SVM with other MPRA datasets and show that gkm-SVM is a reliable predictor of expression and that deltaSVM is a reliable predictor of variant impact in K562 cells and mouse retina. We further show that DHS (DNase-I hypersensitive sites) and ATAC-seq (assay for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing) data are equally predictive substrates for training gkm-SVM, and that DHS regions flanked by H3K27Ac and H3K4me1 marks are more predictive than DHS regions alone.

  12. Bureaucratic Activism and Radical School Change in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niesz, Tricia; Krishnamurthy, Ramchandar

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, Activity Based Learning (ABL), a child-centered, activity-based method of pedagogical practice, transformed classrooms in all of the over 37,000 primary-level government schools in Tamil Nadu, India. The large scale, rapid pace, and radical nature of educational change sets the ABL initiative apart from most school reform efforts.…

  13. Changes in monthly unemployment rates may predict changes in the number of psychiatric presentations to emergency services in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidargaddi, Niranjan; Bastiampillai, Tarun; Schrader, Geoffrey; Adams, Robert; Piantadosi, Cynthia; Strobel, Jörg; Tucker, Graeme; Allison, Stephen

    2015-07-24

    To determine the extent to which variations in monthly Mental Health Emergency Department (MHED) presentations in South Australian Public Hospitals are associated with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly unemployment rates. Times series modelling of relationships between monthly MHED presentations to South Australian Public Hospitals derived from the Integrated South Australian Activity Collection (ISAAC) data base and the ABS monthly unemployment rates in South Australia between January 2004-June 2011. Time series modelling using monthly unemployment rates from ABS as a predictor variable explains 69% of the variation in monthly MHED presentations across public hospitals in South Australia. Thirty-two percent of the variation in current month's male MHED presentations can be predicted by using the 2 months' prior male unemployment rate. Over 63% of the variation in monthly female MHED presentations can be predicted by either male or female prior monthly unemployment rates. The findings of this study highlight that even with the relatively favourable economic conditions, small shifts in monthly unemployment rates can predict variations in monthly MHED presentations, particularly for women. Monthly ABS unemployment rates may be a useful metric for predicting demand for emergency mental health services.

  14. Activity changes of the cat paraventricular hypothalamus during stressor exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Morten P; Rector, David M; Poe, Gina R; Harper, Ronald M

    2004-01-19

    Dorso-medial paraventricular hypothalamus (PVH) activity was assessed by light scattering procedures in freely behaving cats during auditory stressor exposure. Acoustic noise (> 95dB) raised plasma ACTH concentrations, somatic muscle tonus, respiratory frequency and cardiac rates; PVH activity peaked 0.8s following stimulation, and then markedly declined below baseline to a trough at 9.7s. Hypothalamic responses were not uniformly distributed across the recorded PVH field. Activity changes emerged from subregions within the visualized area, and were widespread at the overall activity zenith and nadir. Isolated pixels appeared opposite in activity pattern to overall changes. We suggest that transient activity increases represent initial PVH neural stress responses, and that subsequent profound declines result from neural inhibitory feedback.

  15. GABAA receptors in visual and auditory cortex and neural activity changes during basic visual stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengmin eQin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent imaging studies have demonstrated that levels of resting GABA in the visual cortex predict the degree of stimulus-induced activity in the same region. These studies have used the presentation of discrete visual stimulus; the change from closed eyes to open also represents a simple visual stimulus, however, and has been shown to induce changes in local brain activity and in functional connectivity between regions. We thus aimed to investigate the role of the GABA system, specifically GABAA receptors, in the changes in brain activity between the eyes closed (EC and eyes open (EO state in order to provide detail at the receptor level to complement previous studies of GABA concentrations. We conducted an fMRI study involving two different modes of the change from EC to EO: An EO and EC block design, allowing the modelling of the haemodynamic response, followed by longer periods of EC and EO to allow the measuring of functional connectivity. The same subjects also underwent [18F]Flumazenil PET measure GABAA receptor binding potentials. It was demonstrated that the local-to-global ratio of GABAA receptor binding potential in the visual cortex predicted the degree of changes in neural activity from EC to EO. This same relationship was also shown in the auditory cortex. Furthermore, the local-to-global ratio of GABAA receptor binding potential in the visual cortex also predicts the change of functional connectivity between visual and auditory cortex from EC to EO. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of GABAA receptors in stimulus-induced neural activity in local regions and in inter-regional functional connectivity.

  16. Responsiveness of a simple tool for assessing change in behavioral intention after continuing professional development activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Légaré, France; Freitas, Adriana; Turcotte, Stéphane; Borduas, Francine; Jacques, André; Luconi, Francesca; Godin, Gaston; Boucher, Andrée; Sargeant, Joan; Labrecque, Michel

    2017-01-01

    Continuing professional development (CPD) activities are one way that new knowledge can be translated into changes in practice. However, few tools are available for evaluating the extent to which these activities change health professionals' behavior. We developed a questionnaire called CPD-Reaction for assessing the impact of CPD activities on health professionals' clinical behavioral intentions. We evaluated its responsiveness to change in behavioral intention and verified its acceptability among stakeholders. We enrolled 376 health professionals who completed CPD-Reaction before and immediately after attending a CPD activity. We contacted them three months later and asked them to self-report on any behavior change. We compared the mean rankings on each CPD-Reaction construct before and immediately after CPD activities. To estimate its predictive validity, we compared the median behavioral intention score (post-activity) of health professionals reporting a behavior change three months later with the median behavioral intention score of physicians who reported no change. We explored stakeholders' views on CPD-Reaction in semi-structured interviews. Participants were mostly family physicians (62.2%), with an average of 19 years of clinical practice. Post-activity, we observed an increase in intention-related scores for all constructs (P behavior change. We observed no statistically significant difference in intention between health professionals who later reported a behavior change and those who reported no change (P = 0.30). Overall, CPD stakeholders found the CPD-Reaction questionnaire of interest and suggested potential solutions to perceived barriers to its implementation. The CPD-Reaction questionnaire seems responsive to change in behavioral intention. Although CPD stakeholders found it interesting, future implementation will require addressing barriers they identified.

  17. Responsiveness of a simple tool for assessing change in behavioral intention after continuing professional development activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Légaré, France; Freitas, Adriana; Turcotte, Stéphane; Borduas, Francine; Jacques, André; Luconi, Francesca; Godin, Gaston; Boucher, Andrée; Sargeant, Joan; Labrecque, Michel

    2017-01-01

    Background Continuing professional development (CPD) activities are one way that new knowledge can be translated into changes in practice. However, few tools are available for evaluating the extent to which these activities change health professionals’ behavior. We developed a questionnaire called CPD-Reaction for assessing the impact of CPD activities on health professionals’ clinical behavioral intentions. We evaluated its responsiveness to change in behavioral intention and verified its acceptability among stakeholders. Methods and findings We enrolled 376 health professionals who completed CPD-Reaction before and immediately after attending a CPD activity. We contacted them three months later and asked them to self-report on any behavior change. We compared the mean rankings on each CPD-Reaction construct before and immediately after CPD activities. To estimate its predictive validity, we compared the median behavioral intention score (post-activity) of health professionals reporting a behavior change three months later with the median behavioral intention score of physicians who reported no change. We explored stakeholders’ views on CPD-Reaction in semi-structured interviews. Participants were mostly family physicians (62.2%), with an average of 19 years of clinical practice. Post-activity, we observed an increase in intention-related scores for all constructs (P < 0.001) with the most appreciable for the construct beliefs about capabilities. A total of 313 participants agreed to be contacted at follow up, and of these only 69 (22%) reported back. Of these, 43 (62%) self-reported a behavior change. We observed no statistically significant difference in intention between health professionals who later reported a behavior change and those who reported no change (P = 0.30). Overall, CPD stakeholders found the CPD-Reaction questionnaire of interest and suggested potential solutions to perceived barriers to its implementation. Conclusion The CPD

  18. USGS "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" Project: Crowd-Tagging Aerial Photographs to Improve Coastal Change Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S. B.; Poore, B. S.; Plant, N. G.; Stockdon, H. F.; Morgan, K.; Snell, R.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring oblique aerial photographs of the coast before and after major storms since 1995 and has amassed a database of over 140,000 photographs of the Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific coasts. USGS coastal scientists use these photographs to document and characterize coastal change caused by storms. The images can also be used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models of coastal erosion. However, the USGS does not have the personnel to manually analyze all of the photographs taken after a storm. Also, computers cannot yet automatically identify damages and geomorphic changes to the coast from the oblique aerial photographs. There is a high public interest in accessing the limited number of pre- and post-storm photographic pairs the USGS is currently able to share. Recent federal policies that encourage open data and open innovation initiatives have resulted in many federal agencies developing new ways of using citizen science and crowdsourcing techniques to share data and collaborate with the public to accomplish large tasks. The USGS launched a crowdsourcing application in June 2014 called "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/icoast) to allow citizens to help USGS scientists identify changes to the coast by comparing USGS aerial photographs taken before and after storms, and then selecting pre-defined tags like "dune scarp" and "sand on road." The tags are accompanied by text definitions and pictorial examples of these coastal morphology terms and serve to informally and passively educate users about coastal hazards. The iCoast application facilitates greater citizen awareness of coastal change and is an educational resource for teachers and students interested in learning about coastal vulnerability. We expect that the citizen observations from iCoast will assist with probabilistic model development to produce more accurate predictions of coastal vulnerability.

  19. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brun, Philipp; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla; Payne, Mark R

    2016-09-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one of the longest running and most extensive marine biological monitoring programs, to investigate the reliability of predicted plankton distributions. We apply three commonly used SDMs to 20 representative plankton species, including copepods, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, all found in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. We fit the models to decadal subsets of the full (1958-2012) dataset, and then use them to predict both forward and backward in time, comparing the model predictions against the corresponding observations. The probability of correctly predicting presence was low, peaking at 0.5 for copepods, and model skill typically did not outperform a null model assuming distributions to be constant in time. The predicted prevalence increasingly differed from the observed prevalence for predictions with more distance in time from their training dataset. More detailed investigations based on four focal species revealed that strong spatial variations in skill exist, with the least skill at the edges of the distributions, where prevalence is lowest. Furthermore, the scores of traditional single-value model performance metrics were contrasting and some implied overoptimistic conclusions about model skill. Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Physics-Based Predictions for Coherent Change Detection Using X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Preiss

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model is developed to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The model is derived using a dyadic form for surface reflectivity in the Kirchhoff approximation. This permits the combination of Kirchhoff theory and spotlight synthetic aperture radar (SAR image formation theory. The resulting model is used to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The theoretical model is applied to SAR images formed before and after surface changes observed by a repeat-pass SAR system. The change in surface associated with a tyre track following vehicle passage is modelled and SAR coherency estimates are obtained. Predicted coherency distributions for both the change and no-change scenarios are used to estimate receiver operator curves for the detection of the changes using a high-resolution, X-band SAR system.

  1. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  2. Factors Predicting Physical Activity Among Children With Special Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Yazdani, MD

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Obesity is especially prevalent among children with special needs. Both lack of physical activity and unhealthful eating are major contributing factors. The objective of our study was to investigate barriers to physical activity among these children. Methods We surveyed parents of the 171 children attending Vista Del Mar School in Los Angeles, a nonprofit school serving a socioeconomically diverse group of children with special needs from kindergarten through 12th grade. Parents were asked about their child’s and their own physical activity habits, barriers to their child’s exercise, and demographics. The response rate was 67%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine predictors of children being physically active at least 3 hours per week. Results Parents reported that 45% of the children were diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, 38% with autism, and 34% with learning disabilities; 47% of children and 56% of parents were physically active less than 3 hours per week. The top barriers to physical activity were reported as child’s lack of interest (43%, lack of developmentally appropriate programs (33%, too many behavioral problems (32%, and parents’ lack of time (29%. However, child’s lack of interest was the only parent-reported barrier independently associated with children’s physical activity. Meanwhile, children whose parents were physically active at least 3 hours per week were 4.2 times as likely to be physically active as children whose parents were less physically active (P = .01. Conclusion In this group of students with special needs, children’s physical activity was strongly associated with parental physical activity; parent-reported barriers may have had less direct effect. Further studies should examine the importance of parental physical activity among children with special needs.

  3. Detection of cardiac activity changes from human speech

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovarek, Jaromir; Partila, Pavol; Voznak, Miroslav; Mikulec, Martin; Mehic, Miralem

    2015-05-01

    Impact of changes in blood pressure and pulse from human speech is disclosed in this article. The symptoms of increased physical activity are pulse, systolic and diastolic pressure. There are many methods of measuring and indicating these parameters. The measurements must be carried out using devices which are not used in everyday life. In most cases, the measurement of blood pressure and pulse following health problems or other adverse feelings. Nowadays, research teams are trying to design and implement modern methods in ordinary human activities. The main objective of the proposal is to reduce the delay between detecting the adverse pressure and to the mentioned warning signs and feelings. Common and frequent activity of man is speaking, while it is known that the function of the vocal tract can be affected by the change in heart activity. Therefore, it can be a useful parameter for detecting physiological changes. A method for detecting human physiological changes by speech processing and artificial neural network classification is described in this article. The pulse and blood pressure changes was induced by physical exercises in this experiment. The set of measured subjects was formed by ten healthy volunteers of both sexes. None of the subjects was a professional athlete. The process of the experiment was divided into phases before, during and after physical training. Pulse, systolic, diastolic pressure was measured and voice activity was recorded after each of them. The results of this experiment describe a method for detecting increased cardiac activity from human speech using artificial neural network.

  4. Comparison of an Imaging Software and Manual Prediction of Soft Tissue Changes after Orthognathic Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Ahmad Akhoundi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Accurate prediction of the surgical outcome is important in treating dentofacial deformities. Visualized treatment objectives usually involve manual surgical simulation based on tracing of cephalometric radiographs. Recent technical advancements have led to the use of computer assisted imaging systems in treatment planning for orthognathic surgical cases. The purpose of this study was to examine and compare the ability and reliability of digitization using Dolphin Imaging Software with traditional manual techniques and to compare orthognathic prediction with actual outcomes.Materials and Methods: Forty patients consisting of 35 women and 5 men (32 class III and 8 class II with no previous surgery were evaluated by manual tracing and indirect digitization using Dolphin Imaging Software. Reliability of each method was assessed then the two techniques were compared using paired t test.Result: The nasal tip presented the least predicted error and higher reliability. The least accurate regions in vertical plane were subnasal and upper lip, and subnasal and pogonion in horizontal plane. There were no statistically significant differences between the predictions of groups with and without genioplasty.Conclusion: Computer-generated image prediction was suitable for patient education and communication. However, efforts are still needed to improve accuracy and reliability of the prediction program and to include changes in soft tissue tension and muscle strain.

  5. Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

    2013-01-01

    Changing climate may pose a threat to forest tree species, forcing three potential population-level responses: toleration/adaptation, movement to suitable environmental conditions, or local extirpation. Assessments that prioritize and classify tree species for management and conservation activities in the face of climate change will need to incorporate estimates of the...

  6. Serial Change in Cervical Length for the Prediction of Emergency Cesarean Section in Placenta Previa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Eun Shin

    Full Text Available To evaluate whether serial change in cervical length (CL over time can be a predictor for emergency cesarean section (CS in patients with placenta previa.This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with placenta previa between January 2010 and November 2014. All women were offered serial measurement of CL by transvaginal ultrasound at 19 to 23 weeks (CL1, 24 to 28 weeks (CL2, 29 to 31 weeks (CL3, and 32 to 34 weeks (CL4. We compared clinical characteristics, serial change in CL, and outcomes between the emergency CS group (case group and elective CS group (control group. The predictive value of change in CL for emergency CS was evaluated.A total of 93 women were evaluated; 31 had emergency CS due to massive vaginal bleeding. CL tended to decrease with advancing gestational age in each group. Until 29-31 weeks, CL showed no significant differences between the two groups, but after that, CL in the emergency CS group decreased abruptly, even though CL in the elective CS group continued to gradually decrease. On multivariate analysis to determine risk factors, only admissions for bleeding (odds ratio, 34.710; 95% CI, 5.239-229.973 and change in CL (odds ratio, 3.522; 95% CI, 1.210-10.253 were significantly associated with emergency CS. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that change in CL could be the predictor of emergency CS (area under the curve 0.734, p < 0.001, with optimal cutoff for predicting emergency cesarean delivery of 6.0 mm.Previous admission for vaginal bleeding and change in CL are independent predictors of emergency CS in placenta previa. Women with change in CL more than 6 mm between the second and third trimester are at high risk of emergency CS in placenta previa. Single measurements of short CL at the second or third trimester do not seem to predict emergency CS.

  7. Seasonal prediction of lightning activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-scale versus local drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Á. G.; Díaz-Lobatón, J.; Chourio, X.; Stock, M. J.

    2016-05-01

    The Lake Maracaibo Basin in North Western Venezuela has the highest annual lightning rate of any place in the world (~ 200 fl km- 2 yr- 1), whose electrical discharges occasionally impact human and animal lives (e.g., cattle) and frequently affect economic activities like oil and natural gas exploitation. Lightning activity is so common in this region that it has a proper name: Catatumbo Lightning (plural). Although short-term lightning forecasts are now common in different parts of the world, to the best of the authors' knowledge, seasonal prediction of lightning activity is still non-existent. This research discusses the relative role of both large-scale and local climate drivers as modulators of lightning activity in the region, and presents a formal predictability study at seasonal scale. Analysis of the Catatumbo Lightning Regional Mode, defined in terms of the second Empirical Orthogonal Function of monthly Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS-TRMM) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite data for North Western South America, permits the identification of potential predictors at seasonal scale via a Canonical Correlation Analysis. Lightning activity in North Western Venezuela responds to well defined sea-surface temperature patterns (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode) and changes in the low-level meridional wind field that are associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and tropical cyclone activity, but it is also linked to local drivers like convection triggered by the topographic configuration and the effect of the Maracaibo Basin Nocturnal Low Level Jet. The analysis indicates that at seasonal scale the relative contribution of the large-scale drivers is more important than the local (basin-wide) ones, due to the synoptic control imposed by the former. Furthermore, meridional CAPE transport at 925 mb is identified as the best potential predictor for lightning activity in the Lake

  8. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  9. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2017-02-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  10. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  11. Measuring disease activity to predict therapeutic outcome in Graves' ophthalmopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwee, C.B.; Prummel, M.F.; Gerding, M.N.; Kahaly, G.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Wiersinga, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The concept of disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) might explain why as many as one-third of patients do not respond to immunosuppressive treatment, because only patients in the active stage of disease are expected to respond. The hypothesis was adopted that a parameter used

  12. Measuring disease activity to predict therapeutic outcome in Graves' ophthalmopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwee, C.B.; Prummel, M.F.; Gerding, M.N.; Kahaly, G.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Wiersinga, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The concept of disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) might explain why as many as one-third of patients do not respond to immunosuppressive treatment, because only patients in the active stage of disease are expected to respond. The hypothesis was adopted that a parameter used t

  13. Social Networking Site Use Predicts Changes in Young Adults’ Psychological Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szwedo, David E.; Mikami, Amori Yee; Allen, Joseph P.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined youths’ friendships and posted pictures on social networking sites as predictors of changes in their adjustment over time. Observational, self-report, and peer report data were obtained from a community sample of 89 young adults interviewed at age 21 and again at age 22. Findings were consistent with a leveling effect for online friendships, predicting decreases in internalizing symptoms for youth with lower initial levels of social acceptance, but increases in symptoms for youth with higher initial levels over the following year. Across the entire sample, deviant behavior in posted photos predicted increases in young adults’ problematic alcohol use over time. The importance of considering the interplay between online and offline social factors for predicting adjustment is discussed. PMID:23109797

  14. Performance Prediction of Active Piezo Fiber Rackets in Terms of Tennis Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawazoe, Yoshihiko; Takeda, Yukihiro; Nakagawa, Masamichi

    Several former top players sent a letter to the International Tennis Federation (ITF) encouraging the governing body to revisit the question of rackets. In the letter, the players wrote that racket technology has led to major changes in how the game is played at the top level. This paper investigated the physical properties of a new type of racket with active piezoelectric fibers appeared recently in the market, and predicted the various factors associated with the frontal impact, such as impact force, contact time, deformation of ball and strings, and also estimated the racket performance such as the coefficient of restitution, the rebound power coefficient, the post-impact ball velocity and the sweet areas relevant to the power in tennis. It is based on the experimental identification of the dynamics of the ball-racket-arm system and the approximate nonlinear impact analysis with a simple swing model. The predicted results with forehand stroke model can explain the difference in mechanism of performance between the new type racket with active piezoelectric fibers and the conventional passive representative rackets. It showed that this new type racket provides higher coefficient of restitution on the whole area of string face and also gives larger rebound power coefficients particularly at the topside and bigger powers on the whole area of string face but the difference was not so large. It seems that the racket-related improvements in play are relatively small and the players themselves continue to improve, accordingly there is a gap between a perception and reality.

  15. Changes in physical activity and all-cause mortality in COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaes, Anouk W; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Marott, Jacob L; Benet, Marta; Groenen, Miriam T J; Schnohr, Peter; Franssen, Frits M E; Vestbo, Jørgen; Wouters, Emiel F M; Lange, Peter; Spruit, Martijn A

    2014-11-01

    Little is known about changes in physical activity in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its impact on mortality. Therefore, we aimed to study changes in physical activity in subjects with and without COPD and the impact of physical activity on mortality risk. Subjects from the Copenhagen City Heart Study with at least two consecutive examinations were selected. Each examination included a self-administered questionnaire and clinical examination. 1270 COPD subjects and 8734 subjects without COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 s 67±18 and 91±15% predicted, respectively) were included. COPD subjects with moderate or high baseline physical activity who reported low physical activity level at follow-up had the highest hazard ratios of mortality (1.73 and 2.35, respectively; both pphysical activity, no differences were found in survival between unchanged or increased physical activity at follow-up. In addition, subjects without COPD with low physical activity at follow-up had the highest hazard ratio of mortality, irrespective of baseline physical activity level (p≤0.05). A decline to low physical activity at follow-up was associated with an increased mortality risk in subjects with and without COPD. These observational data suggest that it is important to assess and encourage physical activity in the earliest stages of COPD in order to maintain a physical activity level that is as high as possible, as this is associated with better prognosis.

  16. Efficient and Effective Change Principles in Active Videogames.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straker, Leon M; Fenner, Ashley A; Howie, Erin K; Feltz, Deborah L; Gray, Cindy M; Lu, Amy Shirong; Mueller, Florian Floyd; Simons, Monique; Barnett, Lisa M

    2015-02-01

    Active videogames have the potential to enhance population levels of physical activity but have not been successful in achieving this aim to date. This article considers a range of principles that may be important to the design of effective and efficient active videogames from diverse discipline areas, including behavioral sciences (health behavior change, motor learning, and serious games), business production (marketing and sales), and technology engineering and design (human-computer interaction/ergonomics and flow). Both direct and indirect pathways to impact on population levels of habitual physical activity are proposed, along with the concept of a game use lifecycle. Examples of current active and sedentary electronic games are used to understand how such principles may be applied. Furthermore, limitations of the current usage of theoretical principles are discussed. A suggested list of principles for best practice in active videogame design is proposed along with suggested research ideas to inform practice to enhance physical activity.

  17. Seasonal activity and morphological changes in martian gullies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dundas, Colin M.; Diniega, Serina; Hansen, Candice J.; Byrne, Shane; McEwen, Alfred S.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies of martian dune and non-dune gullies have suggested a seasonal control on present-day gully activity. The timing of current gully activity, especially activity involving the formation or modification of channels (which commonly have been taken as evidence of fluvial processes), has important implications regarding likely gully formation processes and necessary environmental conditions. In this study, we describe the results of frequent meter-scale monitoring of several active gully sites by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The aim is to better assess the scope and nature of current morphological changes and to provide improved constraints on timing of gully activity on both dune and non-dune slopes. Our observations indicate that (1) gully formation on Mars is ongoing today and (2) the most significant morphological changes are strongly associated with seasonal frost and defrosting activity. Observed changes include formation of all major components of typical gully landforms, although we have not observed alcove formation in coherent bedrock. These results reduce the need to invoke recent climate change or present-day groundwater seepage to explain the many martian gullies with pristine appearance.

  18. Changes in vigorous physical activity and incident diabetes inmale runners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Paul T.

    2007-04-30

    Health Study [11-19] is unique among population cohorts in its focus on the health impact of higher doses of vigorously intense physical activity (i.e., {ge} 6-fold metabolic rate). The study was specifically designed to evaluate the dose-response relationship between vigorous physical activity and health for intensities and durations that exceed current physical activity recommendations [20-22]. One specific hypothesis is whether changes in vigorous physical activity affect the risk for becoming diabetic. Although women were surveyed and followed-up, only 23 developed diabetes so there is limited statistical power to establish their significance. Our analyses of diabetes and vigorous exercise are therefore restricted to men. This paper relates running distance at baseline and at the end of follow-up to self-reported, physician diagnosed diabetes in vigorously active men who were generally lean and ostensibly at low diabetic risk The benefits of greater doses of more vigorous exercise are relevant to the 27% of U.S. women and 34% of U.S. men meet or exceed the more general exercise recommendations for health benefits [23]. Specific issues to be addressed are: (1) whether maintenance of the same level of vigorous exercise over time reduces the risk of incident diabetes in relation to the exercise dose; (2) whether men who decrease their activity increase their risk for becoming diabetic; and (3) whether end of follow-up running distances are more predictive of diabetes than baseline distances, suggesting a causal, acute effect. Elsewhere we have shown that greater body weight is related to a lack of vigorous exercise [12-14] and increases the risk for diabetes even among generally lean vigorously active men [11]. In runners, leanness may be due to the exercise or due to initially lean men choosing to run further [17]. Therefore we also test whether body weight mediates the effects of vigorous exercise on diabetes, and whether this may be due to self-selection.

  19. Tire Changes, Fresh Air, and Yellow Flags: Challenges in Predictive Analytics for Professional Racing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulabandhula, Theja; Rudin, Cynthia

    2014-06-01

    Our goal is to design a prediction and decision system for real-time use during a professional car race. In designing a knowledge discovery process for racing, we faced several challenges that were overcome only when domain knowledge of racing was carefully infused within statistical modeling techniques. In this article, we describe how we leveraged expert knowledge of the domain to produce a real-time decision system for tire changes within a race. Our forecasts have the potential to impact how racing teams can optimize strategy by making tire-change decisions to benefit their rank position. Our work significantly expands previous research on sports analytics, as it is the only work on analytical methods for within-race prediction and decision making for professional car racing.

  20. Transitioning to adolescence: how changes in child personality and overreactive parenting predict adolescent adjustment problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Akker, Alithe L; Deković, Maja; Prinzie, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined how changes in child Big Five personality characteristics and overreactive parenting during the transition from childhood to adolescence predict adolescent adjustment problems. The sample included 290 children, aged 8-9 years. At three moments, with 2-year intervals, mothers, fathers, and a teacher reported on the child's personality, and mothers and fathers reported on their parenting behavior. At the third measurement moment, mothers, fathers, and children reported on the child's adjustment problems. Rank-order stability of the personality dimensions and overreactive parenting were high. Univariate latent growth models revealed mean-level decreases for extraversion, conscientiousness, and imagination. Mean levels of benevolence, emotional stability, and overreactive parenting were stable. Multivariate latent growth models revealed that decreases in extraversion and emotional stability predicted internalizing problems, whereas decreases in benevolence, conscientiousness, and emotional stability predicted externalizing problems. Increases in overreactive parenting predicted externalizing, but not internalizing problems. The associations were similar for boys and girls. The results indicate that changes in child personality and overreactive parenting during the transition to adolescence are associated with adolescent adjustment problems. Overall, child personality was more important than overreactive parenting, and children were more likely to "act out" than to "withdraw" in reaction to overreactive parenting.

  1. Method of empirical dependences in estimation and prediction of activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeeva, Tatiana F.; Moshkova, Albina N.; Erlykina, Elena I.; Khvatova, Elena M.

    2016-04-01

    Creatine kinase is a key enzyme of energy metabolism in the brain. There are known cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase isoenzymes. Mitochondrial creatine kinase exists as a mixture of two oligomeric forms - dimer and octamer. The aim of investigation was to study catalytic properties of cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase and using of the method of empirical dependences for the possible prediction of the activity of these enzymes in cerebral ischemia. Ischemia was revealed to be accompanied with the changes of the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes and oligomeric state of mitochondrial isoform. There were made the models of multiple regression that permit to study the activity of creatine kinase system in cerebral ischemia using a calculating method. Therefore, the mathematical method of empirical dependences can be applied for estimation and prediction of the functional state of the brain by the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia.

  2. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...

  3. Climate change forecasts, long-term spatio-temporal prediction and the resilience of dry ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafran-Natan, Rakefet; Svoray, Tal; Avi, Perevolotsky

    2010-05-01

    Primary production is an important indicator to climatic changes in drylands, while reduction in productivity has many consequences on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change should lead to a change in spatial patterns of grasses without a substantial change in ecosystem resilience. We used field data and a recently published spatio-temporally explicit model to study factors affecting long-term variation in primary production in two dry ecosystems: semi-arid (SAE) and Mediterranean (DME) dominated by annual vegetation. The model was operated in both patch and landscape scales and was executed along 30 years (1979-2008) at SAE and along 21 years (1986-1990; 1993-2008) at DME. Model predictions were validated against samples that were harvested in each site at the end of the growing season, over 15 seasons (1994-2008) at SAE (0.63

  4. Transfer Student Success: Educationally Purposeful Activities Predictive of Undergraduate GPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauria, Renee M.; Fuller, Matthew B.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers evaluated the effects of Educationally Purposeful Activities (EPAs) on transfer and nontransfer students' cumulative GPAs. Hierarchical, linear, and multiple regression models yielded seven statistically significant educationally purposeful items that influenced undergraduate student GPAs. Statistically significant positive EPAs for…

  5. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species...... with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size...

  6. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla;

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change....... Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against...

  7. Predicting protein conformational changes for unbound and homology docking: learning from intrinsic and induced flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Haoran; Sun, Yuanfei; Shen, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Predicting protein conformational changes from unbound structures or even homology models to bound structures remains a critical challenge for protein docking. Here we present a study directly addressing the challenge by reducing the dimensionality and narrowing the range of the corresponding conformational space. The study builds on cNMA-our new framework of partner- and contact-specific normal mode analysis that exploits encounter complexes and considers both intrinsic and induced flexibility. First, we established over a CAPRI (Critical Assessment of PRedicted Interactions) target set that the direction of conformational changes from unbound structures and homology models can be reproduced to a great extent by a small set of cNMA modes. In particular, homology-to-bound interface root-mean-square deviation (iRMSD) can be reduced by 40% on average with the slowest 30 modes. Second, we developed novel and interpretable features from cNMA and used various machine learning approaches to predict the extent of conformational changes. The models learned from a set of unbound-to-bound conformational changes could predict the actual extent of iRMSD with errors around 0.6 Å for unbound proteins in a held-out benchmark subset, around 0.8 Å for unbound proteins in the CAPRI set, and around 1 Å even for homology models in the CAPRI set. Our results shed new insights into origins of conformational differences between homology models and bound structures and provide new support for the low-dimensionality of conformational adjustment during protein associations. The results also provide new tools for ensemble generation and conformational sampling in unbound and homology docking. Proteins 2017; 85:544-556. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Lauren B; Waaser, Stephanie A; MacLean, Heidi J; Fox, Richard

    2011-12-01

    Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.

  9. Pupil diameter predicts changes in the exploration-exploitation trade-off: evidence for the adaptive gain theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jepma, Marieke; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

    2011-07-01

    The adaptive regulation of the balance between exploitation and exploration is critical for the optimization of behavioral performance. Animal research and computational modeling have suggested that changes in exploitative versus exploratory control state in response to changes in task utility are mediated by the neuromodulatory locus coeruleus-norepinephrine (LC-NE) system. Recent studies have suggested that utility-driven changes in control state correlate with pupil diameter, and that pupil diameter can be used as an indirect marker of LC activity. We measured participants' pupil diameter while they performed a gambling task with a gradually changing payoff structure. Each choice in this task can be classified as exploitative or exploratory using a computational model of reinforcement learning. We examined the relationship between pupil diameter, task utility, and choice strategy (exploitation vs. exploration), and found that (i) exploratory choices were preceded by a larger baseline pupil diameter than exploitative choices; (ii) individual differences in baseline pupil diameter were predictive of an individual's tendency to explore; and (iii) changes in pupil diameter surrounding the transition between exploitative and exploratory choices correlated with changes in task utility. These findings provide novel evidence that pupil diameter correlates closely with control state, and are consistent with a role for the LC-NE system in the regulation of the exploration-exploitation trade-off in humans.

  10. Adaptation of active tone in the mouse descending thoracic aorta under acute changes in loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtada, S-I; Lewin, S; Arner, A; Humphrey, J D

    2016-06-01

    Arteries can adapt to sustained changes in blood pressure and flow, and it is thought that these adaptive processes often begin with an altered smooth muscle cell activity that precedes any detectable changes in the passive wall components. Yet, due to the intrinsic coupling between the active and passive properties of the arterial wall, it has been difficult to delineate the adaptive contributions of active smooth muscle. To address this need, we used a novel experimental-computational approach to quantify adaptive functions of active smooth muscle in arterial rings excised from the proximal descending thoracic aorta of mice and subjected to short-term sustained circumferential stretches while stimulated with various agonists. A new mathematical model of the adaptive processes was derived and fit to data to describe and predict the effects of active tone adaptation. It was found that active tone was maintained when the artery was adapted close to the optimal stretch for maximal active force production, but it was reduced when adapted below the optimal stretch; there was no significant change in passive behavior in either case. Such active adaptations occurred only upon smooth muscle stimulation with phenylephrine, however, not stimulation with KCl or angiotensin II. Numerical simulations using the proposed model suggested further that active tone adaptation in vascular smooth muscle could play a stabilizing role for wall stress in large elastic arteries.

  11. Application of Artificial Neural Network to Predict Colour Change, Shrinkage and Texture of Osmotically Dehydrated Pumpkin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S. Y.; Lee, J. S.; Loh, S. P.; Tham, H. J.

    2017-06-01

    The objectives of this study were to use Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict colour change, shrinkage and texture of osmotically dehydrated pumpkin slices. The effects of process variables such as concentration of osmotic solution, immersion temperature and immersion time on the above mentioned physical properties were studied. The colour of the samples was measured using a colorimeter and the net colour difference changes, ΔE were determined. The texture was measured in terms of hardness by using a Texture Analyzer. As for the shrinkage, displacement of volume method was applied and percentage of shrinkage was obtained in terms of volume changes. A feed-forward backpropagation network with sigmoidal function was developed and best network configuration was chosen based on the highest correlation coefficients between the experimental values versus predicted values. As a comparison, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) statistical analysis was also employed. The performances of both RSM and ANN modelling were evaluated based on absolute average deviation (AAD), correlation of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that ANN has higher prediction capability as compared to RSM. The relative importance of the variables on the physical properties were also determined by using connection weight approach in ANN. It was found that solution concentration showed the highest influence on all three physical properties.

  12. Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiran Han

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

  13. Predicting short-term weight loss using four leading health behavior change theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barata José T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was conceived to analyze how exercise and weight management psychosocial variables, derived from several health behavior change theories, predict weight change in a short-term intervention. The theories under analysis were the Social Cognitive Theory, the Transtheoretical Model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Self-Determination Theory. Methods Subjects were 142 overweight and obese women (BMI = 30.2 ± 3.7 kg/m2; age = 38.3 ± 5.8y, participating in a 16-week University-based weight control program. Body weight and a comprehensive psychometric battery were assessed at baseline and at program's end. Results Weight decreased significantly (-3.6 ± 3.4%, p Conclusion The present models were able to predict 20–30% of variance in short-term weight loss and changes in weight management self-efficacy accounted for a large share of the predictive power. As expected from previous studies, exercise variables were only moderately associated with short-term outcomes; they are expected to play a larger explanatory role in longer-term results.

  14. A data mining based approach to predict spatiotemporal changes in satellite images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulila, W.; Farah, I. R.; Ettabaa, K. Saheb; Solaiman, B.; Ghézala, H. Ben

    2011-06-01

    The interpretation of remotely sensed images in a spatiotemporal context is becoming a valuable research topic. However, the constant growth of data volume in remote sensing imaging makes reaching conclusions based on collected data a challenging task. Recently, data mining appears to be a promising research field leading to several interesting discoveries in various areas such as marketing, surveillance, fraud detection and scientific discovery. By integrating data mining and image interpretation techniques, accurate and relevant information (i.e. functional relation between observed parcels and a set of informational contents) can be automatically elicited. This study presents a new approach to predict spatiotemporal changes in satellite image databases. The proposed method exploits fuzzy sets and data mining concepts to build predictions and decisions for several remote sensing fields. It takes into account imperfections related to the spatiotemporal mining process in order to provide more accurate and reliable information about land cover changes in satellite images. The proposed approach is validated using SPOT images representing the Saint-Denis region, capital of Reunion Island. Results show good performances of the proposed framework in predicting change for the urban zone.

  15. Input techniques that dynamically change their cursor activation area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2007-01-01

    cursor, whose activation area always contains the closest object, and two variants of cell cursors, whose activation areas contain a set of objects in the vicinity of the cursor. We report two experiments that compare these techniques to a point cursor; in one experiment participants use a touchpad......Efficient pointing is crucial to graphical user interfaces, and input techniques that dynamically change their activation area may yield improvements over point cursors by making objects selectable at a distance. Input techniques that dynamically change their activation area include the bubble...... for operating the input techniques, in the other a mouse. In both experiments, the bubble cursor is fastest and participants make fewer errors with it. Participants also unanimously prefer this technique. For small targets, the cell cursors are generally more accurate than the point cursor; in the second...

  16. Heat tolerance predicts the importance of species interaction effects as the climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, Sarah E; Chick, Lacy; Penick, Clint A; Nichols, Lauren M; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

    2017-07-01

    Few studies have quantified the relative importance of direct effects of climate change on communities versus indirect effects that are mediated thorough species interactions, and the limited evidence is conflicting. Trait-based approaches have been popular in studies of climate change, but can they be used to estimate direct versus indirect effects? At the species level, thermal tolerance is a trait that is often used to predict winners and losers under scenarios of climate change. But thermal tolerance might also inform when species interactions are likely to be important because only subsets of species will be able to exploit the available warmer climatic niche space, and competition may intensify in the remaining, compressed cooler climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relative roles of the direct effects of temperature change and indirect effects of species interactions on forest ant communities that were heated as part of a large-scale climate manipulation at high- and low-latitude sites in eastern North America. Overall, we found mixed support for the importance of negative species interactions (competition), but found that the magnitude of these interaction effects was predictable based on the heat tolerance of the focal species. Forager abundance and nest site occupancy of heat-intolerant species were more often influenced by negative interactions with other species than by direct effects of temperature. Our findings suggest that measures of species-specific heat tolerance may roughly predict when species interactions will influence responses to global climate change. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Soil Erosion Prediction Based on Land Use Changes (A Case in Neka Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim Solaimani

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Land use change has transformed a vast part of the natural landscapes of the developing world for the last 50 years. Land is a fundamental factor of production and though much of the course of human history, it has been tightly coupled with economic growth. Soil erosion by water is one of the most important land degradation processes in the Mediterranean basins. The unplanned land use change within and near a fast growing agricultural land in Neka River Basin, led to an accelerated erosion of soil in the area. Approach: This study aims to find the relationships between land use pattern, erosion and the sediment yield in the study area. The land use coefficient (Xa has applied in the model of Erosion Potential Method (EPM to forecast the effect of the land type to reduce the erosion. Land cover and land use change was projected for the next decade using topography, geology, land use maps and remote sensing data of the study area. Results: The results of this study indicated that the total sediment yield of the study area has notably decreased to 89.24% after an appropriate land use/cover alteration. The estimated special erosion for the Southern Neka Basin is about 144465.1 m3 km-2 where after management policy is predicted 15542.9 m3 km-2 year?1, therefore the total difference for the study area has estimated about 128922.2 m3 km-2 year-1. Conclusion: The land use changes assessed among the different land cover classes. It is important to mention that conducting of the present study a very severe land cover changes taken place as the result of agricultural land development. These changes in land cover led to the forest degradation of the study area. Relationship between land-use changes and agricultural growth offered a more robust prediction of soil erosion in Neka watershed.

  18. Cross-layer active predictive congestion control protocol for wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Jiangwen; Xu, Xiaofeng; Feng, Renjian; Wu, Yinfeng

    2009-01-01

    In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), there are numerous factors that may cause network congestion problems, such as the many-to-one communication modes, mutual interference of wireless links, dynamic changes of network topology and the memory-restrained characteristics of nodes. All these factors result in a network being more vulnerable to congestion. In this paper, a cross-layer active predictive congestion control scheme (CL-APCC) for improving the performance of networks is proposed. Queuing theory is applied in the CL-APCC to analyze data flows of a single-node according to its memory status, combined with the analysis of the average occupied memory size of local networks. It also analyzes the current data change trends of local networks to forecast and actively adjust the sending rate of the node in the next period. In order to ensure the fairness and timeliness of the network, the IEEE 802.11 protocol is revised based on waiting time, the number of the node's neighbors and the original priority of data packets, which dynamically adjusts the sending priority of the node. The performance of CL-APCC, which is evaluated by extensive simulation experiments. is more efficient in solving the congestion in WSNs. Furthermore, it is clear that the proposed scheme has an outstanding advantage in terms of improving the fairness and lifetime of networks.

  19. Cross-Layer Active Predictive Congestion Control Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinfeng Wu

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In wireless sensor networks (WSNs, there are numerous factors that may cause network congestion problems, such as the many-to-one communication modes, mutual interference of wireless links, dynamic changes of network topology and the memory-restrained characteristics of nodes. All these factors result in a network being more vulnerable to congestion. In this paper, a cross-layer active predictive congestion control scheme (CL-APCC for improving the performance of networks is proposed. Queuing theory is applied in the CL-APCC to analyze data flows of a single-node according to its memory status, combined with the analysis of the average occupied memory size of local networks. It also analyzes the current data change trends of local networks to forecast and actively adjust the sending rate of the node in the next period. In order to ensure the fairness and timeliness of the network, the IEEE 802.11 protocol is revised based on waiting time, the number of the node‟s neighbors and the original priority of data packets, which dynamically adjusts the sending priority of the node. The performance of CL-APCC, which is evaluated by extensive simulation experiments. is more efficient in solving the congestion in WSNs. Furthermore, it is clear that the proposed scheme has an outstanding advantage in terms of improving the fairness and lifetime of networks.

  20. Predicting child physical activity and screen time: parental support for physical activity and general parenting styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Shelby L; Crain, A Lauren; Senso, Meghan M; Levy, Rona L; Sherwood, Nancy E

    2014-07-01

    To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70-95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Parenting style did not predict MVPA, but support for PA did (positive association). The association between support and MVPA, moreover, varied as a function of permissive parenting. For parents high in permissiveness, the association was positive (greater support was related to greater MVPA and therefore protective). For parents low in permissiveness, the association was neutral; support did not matter. Authoritarian and permissive parenting styles were both associated with greater screen time. Parenting practices and styles should be considered jointly, offering implications for tailored interventions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Predicting Child Physical Activity and Screen Time: Parental Support for Physical Activity and General Parenting Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, A. Lauren; Senso, Meghan M.; Levy, Rona L.; Sherwood, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Methods: Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70–95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Results: Parenting style did not predict MVPA, but support for PA did (positive association). The association between support and MVPA, moreover, varied as a function of permissive parenting. For parents high in permissiveness, the association was positive (greater support was related to greater MVPA and therefore protective). For parents low in permissiveness, the association was neutral; support did not matter. Authoritarian and permissive parenting styles were both associated with greater screen time. Conclusions: Parenting practices and styles should be considered jointly, offering implications for tailored interventions. PMID:24812256

  2. Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Sousa Pereira Simoes de Melo, Manuel; Ferre, Rafael; Feliu, Lidia; Bardaji, Eduard; Planas, Marta; Castanho, Miguel A. R. B.

    2011-01-01

    Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible co

  3. Factors affecting perceived change in physical activity in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkx, Astrid; Ausems, Marlein; Budé, Luc; de Vries, Raymond; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne J

    2017-08-01

    reduction of physical activity (PA) during pregnancy is common but undesirable, as it is associated with negative outcomes, including excessive gestational weight gain. Our objective was to explore changes in five types of activity that occurred during pregnancy and the behavioural determinants of the reported changes in PA. we performed a secondary analysis of a cross sectional survey that was constructed using the ASE-Model - an approach to identifying the factors that drive behaviour change that focuses on Attitude, Social influence, and self-Efficacy. 455 healthy pregnant women of all gestational ages, receiving prenatal care from midwifery practices in the Netherlands. more than half of our respondents reported a reduction in their PA during pregnancy. The largest reduction occurred in sports and brief rigorous activities, but other types of PA were reduced as well. Reduction of PA was more likely in women who considered themselves as active before pregnancy, women who experienced pregnancy-related barriers, women who were advised to reduce their PA, and multiparous women. Fewer than 5% increased their PA. Motivation to engage in PA was positively associated with enjoying PA. all pregnant women should be informed about the positive effects of staying active and should be encouraged to engage in, or to continue, moderately intensive activities like walking, biking or swimming. Our findings concerning the predictors of PA reduction can be used to develop an evidence-based intervention aimed at encouraging healthy PA during pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

    2017-03-01

    Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

  5. Developing and Testing a Model to Predict Outcomes of Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, David H; Sainfort, François; Eichler, Mary; Adams, Laura; Bisognano, Maureen; Steudel, Harold

    2003-01-01

    Objective To test the effectiveness of a Bayesian model employing subjective probability estimates for predicting success and failure of health care improvement projects. Data Sources Experts' subjective assessment data for model development and independent retrospective data on 221 healthcare improvement projects in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands collected between 1996 and 2000 for validation. Methods A panel of theoretical and practical experts and literature in organizational change were used to identify factors predicting the outcome of improvement efforts. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate probability of successful change using subjective estimates of likelihood ratios and prior odds elicited from the panel of experts. A subsequent retrospective empirical analysis of change efforts in 198 health care organizations was performed to validate the model. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance using three alternative definitions of success. Data Collection For the model development, experts' subjective assessments were elicited using an integrative group process. For the validation study, a staff person intimately involved in each improvement project responded to a written survey asking questions about model factors and project outcomes. Results Logistic regression chi-square statistics and areas under the ROC curve demonstrated a high level of model performance in predicting success. Chi-square statistics were significant at the 0.001 level and areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.84. Conclusions A subjective Bayesian model was effective in predicting the outcome of actual improvement projects. Additional prospective evaluations as well as testing the impact of this model as an intervention are warranted. PMID:12785571

  6. Does Perceived Racial Discrimination Predict Changes in Psychological Distress and Substance Use over Time? An Examination among Black Emerging Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Noelle M.; Varner, Fatima A.; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2014-01-01

    We assessed whether perceived discrimination predicted changes in psychological distress and substance use over time and whether psychological distress and substance use predicted change in perceived discrimination over time. We also assessed whether associations between these constructs varied by gender. Our sample included 607 Black emerging…

  7. Does Perceived Racial Discrimination Predict Changes in Psychological Distress and Substance Use over Time? An Examination among Black Emerging Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Noelle M.; Varner, Fatima A.; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2014-01-01

    We assessed whether perceived discrimination predicted changes in psychological distress and substance use over time and whether psychological distress and substance use predicted change in perceived discrimination over time. We also assessed whether associations between these constructs varied by gender. Our sample included 607 Black emerging…

  8. Predicting ecological changes on benthic estuarine assemblages through decadal climate trends along Brazilian Marine Ecoregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardino, Angelo F.; Netto, Sérgio A.; Pagliosa, Paulo R.; Barros, Francisco; Christofoletti, Ronaldo A.; Rosa Filho, José S.; Colling, André; Lana, Paulo C.

    2015-12-01

    Estuaries are threatened coastal ecosystems that support relevant ecological functions worldwide. The predicted global climate changes demand actions to understand, anticipate and avoid further damage to estuarine habitats. In this study we reviewed data on polychaete assemblages, as a surrogate for overall benthic communities, from 51 estuaries along five Marine Ecoregions of Brazil (Amazonia, NE Brazil, E Brazil, SE Brazil and Rio Grande). We critically evaluated the adaptive capacity and ultimately the resilience to decadal changes in temperature and rainfall of the polychaete assemblages. As a support for theoretical predictions on changes linked to global warming we compared the variability of benthic assemblages across the ecoregions with a 40-year time series of temperature and rainfall data. We found a significant upward trend in temperature during the last four decades at all marine ecoregions of Brazil, while rainfall increase was restricted to the SE Brazil ecoregion. Benthic assemblages and climate trends varied significantly among and within ecoregions. The high variability in climate patterns in estuaries within the same ecoregion may lead to correspondingly high levels of noise on the expected responses of benthic fauna. Nonetheless, we expect changes in community structure and productivity of benthic species at marine ecoregions under increasing influence of higher temperatures, extreme events and pollution.

  9. Aggressive behavior and change in salivary testosterone concentrations predict willingness to engage in a competitive task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carré, Justin M; McCormick, Cheryl M

    2008-08-01

    The current study investigated relationships among aggressive behavior, change in salivary testosterone concentrations, and willingness to engage in a competitive task. Thirty-eight male participants provided saliva samples before and after performing the Point Subtraction Aggression Paradigm (a laboratory measure that provides opportunity for aggressive and defensive behavior while working for reward; all three involve pressing specific response keys). Baseline testosterone concentrations were not associated with aggressive responding. However, aggressive responding (but not point reward or point protection responding) predicted the pre- to post-PSAP change in testosterone: Those with the highest aggressive responding had the largest percent increase in testosterone concentrations. Together, aggressive responding and change in testosterone predicted willingness to compete following the PSAP. Controlling for aggression, men who showed a rise in testosterone were more likely to choose to compete again (p=0.03) and controlling for testosterone change, men who showed the highest level of aggressive responding were more likely to choose the non-competitive task (p=0.02). These results indicate that situation-specific aggressive behavior and testosterone responsiveness are functionally relevant predictors of future social behavior.

  10. Striatum-medial prefrontal cortex connectivity predicts developmental changes in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bos, Wouter; Cohen, Michael X; Kahnt, Thorsten; Crone, Eveline A

    2012-06-01

    During development, children improve in learning from feedback to adapt their behavior. However, it is still unclear which neural mechanisms might underlie these developmental changes. In the current study, we used a reinforcement learning model to investigate neurodevelopmental changes in the representation and processing of learning signals. Sixty-seven healthy volunteers between ages 8 and 22 (children: 8-11 years, adolescents: 13-16 years, and adults: 18-22 years) performed a probabilistic learning task while in a magnetic resonance imaging scanner. The behavioral data demonstrated age differences in learning parameters with a stronger impact of negative feedback on expected value in children. Imaging data revealed that the neural representation of prediction errors was similar across age groups, but functional connectivity between the ventral striatum and the medial prefrontal cortex changed as a function of age. Furthermore, the connectivity strength predicted the tendency to alter expectations after receiving negative feedback. These findings suggest that the underlying mechanisms of developmental changes in learning are not related to differences in the neural representation of learning signals per se but rather in how learning signals are used to guide behavior and expectations.

  11. Environmental controls on the phenology of moths: predicting plasticity and constraint under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valtonen, Anu; Ayres, Matthew P; Roininen, Heikki; Pöyry, Juha; Leinonen, Reima

    2011-01-01

    Ecological systems have naturally high interannual variance in phenology. Component species have presumably evolved to maintain appropriate phenologies under historical climates, but cases of inappropriate phenology can be expected with climate change. Understanding controls on phenology permits predictions of ecological responses to climate change. We studied phenological control systems in Lepidoptera by analyzing flight times recorded at a network of sites in Finland. We evaluated the strength and form of controls from temperature and photoperiod, and tested for geographic variation within species. Temperature controls on phenology were evident in 51% of 112 study species and for a third of those thermal controls appear to be modified by photoperiodic cues. For 24% of the total, photoperiod by itself emerged as the most likely control system. Species with thermal control alone should be most immediately responsive in phenology to climate warming, but variably so depending upon the minimum temperature at which appreciable development occurs and the thermal responsiveness of development rate. Photoperiodic modification of thermal controls constrains phenotypic responses in phenologies to climate change, but can evolve to permit local adaptation. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the phenological structure of the Finnish Lepidoptera community in ways that are predictable with knowledge of the proximate physiological controls. Understanding how phenological controls in Lepidoptera compare to that of their host plants and enemies could permit general inferences regarding climatic effects on mid- to high-latitude ecosystems.

  12. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...... examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated...

  13. Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikuláš Gangur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Electronic virtual markets can serve as an alternative tool for collecting information that is spread among numerous experts. This is the principal market functionality from the operators’ point of view. On the other hand it is profits that are the main interest of the market participants. What they expect from the market is liquidity as high as possible and the opportunity for unrestricted trading. Both the operator and the electronic market participant can be considered consumers of this particular market with reference to the requirements for the accuracy of its outputs but also for the market liquidity. Both the above mentioned groups of consumers (the operators and the participants themselves expect protection of their specific consumer rights, i.e. securing the two above mentioned functionalities of the market. These functionalities of the electronic market are, however, influenced by many factors, among others by participants’ activity. The article deals with the motivation tools that may improve the quality of the prediction market. In the prediction electronic virtual market there may be situations in which the commonly used tools for increasing business activities described in the published literature are not significantly effective. For such situations we suggest a new type of motivation incentive consisting in penalizing the individual market participants whose funds are not placed in the market. The functionality of the proposed motivation incentive is presented on the example of the existing data gained from the electronic virtual prediction market which is actively operated.

  14. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda C Jones

    Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

  15. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will likely have dramatic impacts on forest health because many forest trees could become maladapted to climate. Furthermore, climate change will have additional impacts on forest health through changes in the distribution and severity of forest disease. Methods are needed to predict the influence of climate change on forest disease so that appropriate...

  16. Molecular physicochemical parameters predicting antioxidant activity of Brazilian natural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Scotti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Reactive oxygen species (ROS are capable of oxidizing cellular proteins, nucleic acids and lipids, contributing to cellular aging, mutagenesis, carcinogenesis, coronary heart and neurodegenerative diseases. Free radicals-scavenging by phenolic compounds occurs by the transfer of one electron followed by the H-abstraction. In order to evaluate the antioxidant activity of a series of seventeen phenolic compounds extracted from Brazilian flora (Chimarrhis turbinata and Arrabidea samydoides, some physicochemical parameters (heat formation of the neutral, radical, and cationic compounds; orbitals' energies; ClogP; ΔH OX; and ΔHf were calculated. Considering the results from the calculated descriptors, the molecules 10a-f can be classified as having a higher antioxidant activity.

  17. A Chang'e-4 mission concept and vision of future Chinese lunar exploration activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiong; Liu, Jizhong

    2016-10-01

    A novel concept for Chinese Chang'e-4 lunar exploration mission is presented in this paper at first. After the success of Chang'e-3, its backup probe, Chang'e-4 lander/rover combination, would be upgraded and land on the unexplored lunar farside by the aid of a relay satellite near the second Earth-Moon Lagrange point. Mineralogical and geochemical surveys on the farside to study the formation and evolution of lunar crust and observations at low radio frequencies to track the signals of the Universe's Dark Ages are priorities. Follow-up Chinese lunar exploration activities before 2030 are envisioned as building a robotic lunar science station by three to five missions. Finally several methods of international cooperation are proposed.

  18. Initial Implementation of an Active Prediction Capability in Bellhop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    version du Bellhop spécifiquement conçue pour offrir une capacité active. Le modèle est présentement configuré pour accepter des capteurs multiples et...capability should be examined to determine if it will be of use to the present applications of BellhopDRDC. 2.2 Enable towed array beam patterns...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION (Overall security classification of the document including special warning terms if applicable .) 3. TITLE

  19. Changing and predicting the frequency of double wall carbon nanotubes oscillator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Huang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Double wall carbon nanotubes have been considered as potential candidate for ultra-high frequency oscillator. However, the exact frequency change versus the nanotubes’ shape has not been detailed discussed. In this article, a series of double wall carbon nanotubes oscillators are investigated using molecular dynamics simulation. We find that, by changing the tube length and radius, the oscillation frequency can be easily modified. To better understand the simulation result above, a theoretical model with maximum main force approximation is introduced. Then the tendency for the frequency change can be well interpreted. Moreover, we find the effective force increases linearly with the tube radius. After a careful derivation, a universal formula is given, which can predict the oscillation period with a good accuracy.

  20. Prediction of changes in groundwater dynamics caused by relocation of river embankments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Mohrlok

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystems in river valleys are affected mainly by the hydraulic conditions in wetlands including groundwater dynamics. The quantitative prediction of changes in groundwater dynamics caused by river embankment relocation requires numerical modelling using a physically-based approach. Groundwater recharge from the intermittently flooded river plains was determined by a leakage approach considering soil hydraulic properties. For the study area in the Elbe river valley north of Magdeburg, Germany, a calibrated groundwater flow model was established and the groundwater dynamics for the present situation as well as for the case of embankment relocation were simulated over a 14-year time period. Changes in groundwater depth derived from simulated groundwater levels occurred only during flood periods. By analysing the spatial distributions of changes in statistical parameters, those areas with significant impact on the ecosystems by embankment relocation can be determined. Keywords: groundwater dynamics,groundwater recharge, flood plains, soil hydraulic properties, numerical modelling, river embankment relocation

  1. Right anterior superior temporal activation predicts auditory sentence comprehension following aphasic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crinion, Jenny; Price, Cathy J

    2005-12-01

    Previous studies have suggested that recovery of speech comprehension after left hemisphere infarction may depend on a mechanism in the right hemisphere. However, the role that distinct right hemisphere regions play in speech comprehension following left hemisphere stroke has not been established. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate narrative speech activation in 18 neurologically normal subjects and 17 patients with left hemisphere stroke and a history of aphasia. Activation for listening to meaningful stories relative to meaningless reversed speech was identified in the normal subjects and in each patient. Second level analyses were then used to investigate how story activation changed with the patients' auditory sentence comprehension skills and surprise story recognition memory tests post-scanning. Irrespective of lesion site, performance on tests of auditory sentence comprehension was positively correlated with activation in the right lateral superior temporal region, anterior to primary auditory cortex. In addition, when the stroke spared the left temporal cortex, good performance on tests of auditory sentence comprehension was also correlated with the left posterior superior temporal cortex (Wernicke's area). In distinct contrast to this, good story recognition memory predicted left inferior frontal and right cerebellar activation. The implication of this double dissociation in the effects of auditory sentence comprehension and story recognition memory is that left frontal and left temporal activations are dissociable. Our findings strongly support the role of the right temporal lobe in processing narrative speech and, in particular, auditory sentence comprehension following left hemisphere aphasic stroke. In addition, they highlight the importance of the right anterior superior temporal cortex where the response was dissociated from that in the left posterior temporal lobe.

  2. Videogames, Tools for Change: A Study Based on Activity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Laura; Lacasa, Pilar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for analysis from which to interpret the transformations that take place, as perceived by the participants, when commercial video games are used in the classroom. We will show how Activity Theory (AT) is able to explain and interpret these changes. Method: Case studies are…

  3. Physical activity, change in blood pressure and predictors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Physical activity, change in blood pressure and predictors of mortality in older South Africans - a 2-year follow-up study. ... The baseline sample, drawn in 1993, was found to have a high prevalence of hypertension (71.7%). Research design.

  4. Videogames, Tools for Change: A Study Based on Activity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Laura; Lacasa, Pilar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for analysis from which to interpret the transformations that take place, as perceived by the participants, when commercial video games are used in the classroom. We will show how Activity Theory (AT) is able to explain and interpret these changes. Method: Case studies are…

  5. Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the. Western Indian ... that there is a discernible human influence on global climate” ..... reef—based and coral reefs serve as natural .... and the station at Rodrigues, damaged during the.

  6. Evaluating Transcription Factor Activity Changes by Scoring Unexplained Target Genes in Expression Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchtold, Evi; Csaba, Gergely; Zimmer, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Several methods predict activity changes of transcription factors (TFs) from a given regulatory network and measured expression data. But available gene regulatory networks are incomplete and contain many condition-dependent regulations that are not relevant for the specific expression measurement. It is not known which combination of active TFs is needed to cause a change in the expression of a target gene. A method to systematically evaluate the inferred activity changes is missing. We present such an evaluation strategy that indicates for how many target genes the observed expression changes can be explained by a given set of active TFs. To overcome the problem that the exact combination of active TFs needed to activate a gene is typically not known, we assume a gene to be explained if there exists any combination for which the predicted active TFs can possibly explain the observed change of the gene. We introduce the i-score (inconsistency score), which quantifies how many genes could not be explained by the set of activity changes of TFs. We observe that, even for these minimal requirements, published methods yield many unexplained target genes, i.e. large i-scores. This holds for all methods and all expression datasets we evaluated. We provide new optimization methods to calculate the best possible (minimal) i-score given the network and measured expression data. The evaluation of this optimized i-score on a large data compendium yields many unexplained target genes for almost every case. This indicates that currently available regulatory networks are still far from being complete. Both the presented Act-SAT and Act-A* methods produce optimal sets of TF activity changes, which can be used to investigate the difficult interplay of expression and network data. A web server and a command line tool to calculate our i-score and to find the active TFs associated with the minimal i-score is available from https://services.bio.ifi.lmu.de/i-score. PMID:27723775

  7. Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

    2017-06-01

    Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009

  8. Climate change and peripheral populations: predictions for a relict Mediterranean viper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Brito

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche-based models were developed in peripheral populations of Vipera latastei North Africa to: 1 identify environmental factors related to species occurrence; 2 identify present suitable areas; 3 estimate future areas according to forecasted scenarios of climate change; and 4 quantify habitat suitability changes between present and future climatic scenarios. Field observations were combined with environmental factors to derive an ensemble of predictions of species occurrence. The resulting models were projected to the future North African environmental scenarios. Species occurrence was most related to precipitation variation. Present suitable habitats were fragmented and ranged from coastal to mountain habitats, and the overall fragmented range suggests a relict distribution from wider past ranges. Future projections suggest a progressive decrease in suitable areas. The relationship with precipitation supports the current unsuitability of most North Africa for the species and predicts future increased extinction risk. Monitoring of population trends and full protection of mountain forests are key-targets for long-term conservation of African populations of this viper. Predicted trends may give indications about other peripheral populations of Palearctic vertebrates in North Africa which should be assessed in detail.

  9. Structural integrity of frontostriatal connections predicts longitudinal changes in self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, Robert S; Heatherton, Todd F

    2017-06-01

    Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem 8 months after initial scanning in a sample of 30 young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions, including depression and anxiety.

  10. Serial Change in Cervical Length for the Prediction of Emergency Cesarean Section in Placenta Previa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jae Eun; Shin, Jong Chul; Lee, Young; Kim, Sa Jin

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate whether serial change in cervical length (CL) over time can be a predictor for emergency cesarean section (CS) in patients with placenta previa. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with placenta previa between January 2010 and November 2014. All women were offered serial measurement of CL by transvaginal ultrasound at 19 to 23 weeks (CL1), 24 to 28 weeks (CL2), 29 to 31 weeks (CL3), and 32 to 34 weeks (CL4). We compared clinical characteristics, serial change in CL, and outcomes between the emergency CS group (case group) and elective CS group (control group). The predictive value of change in CL for emergency CS was evaluated. A total of 93 women were evaluated; 31 had emergency CS due to massive vaginal bleeding. CL tended to decrease with advancing gestational age in each group. Until 29-31 weeks, CL showed no significant differences between the two groups, but after that, CL in the emergency CS group decreased abruptly, even though CL in the elective CS group continued to gradually decrease. On multivariate analysis to determine risk factors, only admissions for bleeding (odds ratio, 34.710; 95% CI, 5.239-229.973) and change in CL (odds ratio, 3.522; 95% CI, 1.210-10.253) were significantly associated with emergency CS. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that change in CL could be the predictor of emergency CS (area under the curve 0.734, p placenta previa. Women with change in CL more than 6 mm between the second and third trimester are at high risk of emergency CS in placenta previa. Single measurements of short CL at the second or third trimester do not seem to predict emergency CS.

  11. Predicting impacts of climate change on medicinal asclepiads of Pakistan using Maxent modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanum, Rizwana; Mumtaz, A. S.; Kumar, Sunil

    2013-05-01

    Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling was used to predict the potential climatic niches of three medicinally important Asclepiad species: Pentatropis spiralis, Tylophora hirsuta, and Vincetoxicum arnottianum. All three species are members of the Asclepiad plant family, yet they differ in ecological requirements, biogeographic importance, and conservation value. Occurrence data were collected from herbarium specimens held in major herbaria of Pakistan and two years (2010 and 2011) of field surveys. The Maxent model performed better than random for the three species with an average test AUC value of 0.74 for P. spiralis, 0.84 for V. arnottianum, and 0.59 for T. hirsuta. Under the future climate change scenario, the Maxent model predicted habitat gains for P. spiralis in southern Punjab and Balochistan, and loss of habitat in south-eastern Sindh. Vincetoxicum arnottianum as well as T. hirsuta would gain habitat in upper Peaks of northern parts of Pakistan. T. hirsuta is predicted to lose most of the habitats in northern Punjab and in parches from lower peaks of Galliat, Zhob, Qalat etc. The predictive modeling approach presented here may be applied to other rare Asclepiad species, especially those under constant extinction threat.

  12. Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kissling, W. Daniel; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.;

    2010-01-01

    Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant s...... even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.......Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant...... species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change...

  13. Changing ideas about others’ intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Pierre O.; Roy, Alice C.; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M.; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting intentions from observing another agent’s behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance – i.e., the motor system’s response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers’ prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others’ intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction. PMID:27243157

  14. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search.

  15. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search. PMID:27867436

  16. Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertholet, Nicolas; Gaume, Jacques; Faouzi, Mohamed; Gmel, Gerhard; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard

    2012-08-29

    associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. ISRCTN78822107.

  17. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken t

  18. Using Social Cognitive Theory to Predict Physical Activity and Fitness in Underserved Middle School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-01-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using…

  19. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  20. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  1. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Geertzen, Jan H. B.; van der Schans, Cees P.; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity

  2. Continuously Growing Rodent Molars Result from a Predictable Quantitative Evolutionary Change over 50 Million Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagan Tapaltsyan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The fossil record is widely informative about evolution, but fossils are not systematically used to study the evolution of stem-cell-driven renewal. Here, we examined evolution of the continuous growth (hypselodonty of rodent molar teeth, which is fuelled by the presence of dental stem cells. We studied occurrences of 3,500 North American rodent fossils, ranging from 50 million years ago (mya to 2 mya. We examined changes in molar height to determine whether evolution of hypselodonty shows distinct patterns in the fossil record, and we found that hypselodont taxa emerged through intermediate forms of increasing crown height. Next, we designed a Markov simulation model, which replicated molar height increases throughout the Cenozoic and, moreover, evolution of hypselodonty. Thus, by extension, the retention of the adult stem cell niche appears to be a predictable quantitative rather than a stochastic qualitative process. Our analyses predict that hypselodonty will eventually become the dominant phenotype.

  3. Present and future distributions of horseshoe crabs under predicted climate changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funch, Peter; Obst, Matthias; Quevedo, Francisco;

    factors for the species distribution, quantify range shifts of the species in response to predicted climatic change, and obtain spatial predictions of suitable habitats under present and future climate scenarios. Suitable habitat was projected into marine protected areas in the region to better understand......The habitats of South East Asian horseshoe crabs span across the shallow waters of many countries and biogeographic regions in the Indo-Pacific. Such ubiquitous presence makes it difficult to obtain an up-to-date and overall picture of the current distribution, density and wealth of horseshoe crab....... gigas lives in sandy and shallow near-coast habitats, while C. rotundicauda mostly inhabits estuaries and mangroves. The third species T. tridentatus is living in shallow coastal zones from Malaysia to Japan. In order to improve our knowledge on current and future distribution of horseshoe crab...

  4. Phase change predictions for liquid fuel in contact with steel structure using the heat conduction equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, D.J. [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Engineering Center

    1998-01-01

    When liquid fuel makes contact with steel structure the liquid can freeze as a crust and the structure can melt at the surface. The melting and freezing processes that occur can influence the mode of fuel freezing and hence fuel relocation. Furthermore the temperature gradients established in the fuel and steel phases determine the rate at which heat is transferred from fuel to steel. In this memo the 1-D transient heat conduction equations are applied to the case of initially liquid UO{sub 2} brought into contact with solid steel using up-to-date materials properties. The solutions predict criteria for fuel crust formation and steel melting and provide a simple algorithm to determine the interface temperature when one or both of the materials is undergoing phase change. The predicted steel melting criterion is compared with available experimental results. (author)

  5. Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression Exposure to many drugs and environmentally-relevant chemicals can cause adverse outcomes. These adverse outcomes, such as cancer, have been linked to mol...

  6. Plant physiological models of heat, water and photoinhibition stress for climate change modelling and agricultural prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, B.; Gilbert, M. E.; Paw U, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models are based upon well understood steady state photosynthetic physiology - the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model (FvCB). However, representations of physiological stress and damage have not been successfully integrated into SVAT models. Generally, it has been assumed that plants will strive to conserve water at higher temperatures by reducing stomatal conductance or adjusting osmotic balance, until potentially damaging temperatures and the need for evaporative cooling become more important than water conservation. A key point is that damage is the result of combined stresses: drought leads to stomatal closure, less evaporative cooling, high leaf temperature, less photosynthetic dissipation of absorbed energy, all coupled with high light (photosynthetic photon flux density; PPFD). This leads to excess absorbed energy by Photosystem II (PSII) and results in photoinhibition and damage, neither are included in SVAT models. Current representations of photoinhibition are treated as a function of PPFD, not as a function of constrained photosynthesis under heat or water. Thus, it seems unlikely that current models can predict responses of vegetation to climate variability and change. We propose a dynamic model of damage to Rubisco and RuBP-regeneration that accounts, mechanistically, for the interactions between high temperature, light, and constrained photosynthesis under drought. Further, these predictions are illustrated by key experiments allowing model validation. We also integrated this new framework within the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA). Preliminary results show that our approach can be used to predict reasonable photosynthetic dynamics. For instances, a leaf undergoing one day of drought stress will quickly decrease its maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), but it won't recover to unstressed levels for several days. Consequently, cumulative effect of photoinhibition on photosynthesis can cause

  7. New Approaches for Crop Genetic Adaptation to the Abiotic Stresses Predicted with Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Redden

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic variation is predicted with climate change this century. In many cropping regions, the crop environment will tend to be warmer with more irregular rainfall and spikes in stress levels will be more severe. The challenge is not only to raise agricultural production for an expanding population, but to achieve this under more adverse environmental conditions. It is now possible to systematically explore the genetic variation in historic local landraces by using GPS locators and world climate maps to describe the natural selection for local adaptation, and to identify candidate germplasm for tolerances to extreme stresses. The physiological and biochemical components of these expressions can be genomically investigated with candidate gene approaches and next generation sequencing. Wild relatives of crops have largely untapped genetic variation for abiotic and biotic stress tolerances, and could greatly expand the available domesticated gene pools to assist crops to survive in the predicted extremes of climate change, a survivalomics strategy. Genomic strategies can assist in the introgression of these valuable traits into the domesticated crop gene pools, where they can be better evaluated for crop improvement. The challenge is to increase agricultural productivity despite climate change. This calls for the integration of many disciplines from eco-geographical analyses of genetic resources to new advances in genomics, agronomy and farm management, underpinned by an understanding of how crop adaptation to climate is affected by genotype × environment interaction.

  8. Switch region for pathogenic structural change in conformational disease and its prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Many diseases are believed to be related to abnormal protein folding. In the first step of such pathogenic structural changes, misfolding occurs in regions important for the stability of the native structure. This destabilizes the normal protein conformation, while exposing the previously hidden aggregation-prone regions, leading to subsequent errors in the folding pathway. Sites involved in this first stage can be deemed switch regions of the protein, and can represent perfect binding targets for drugs to block the abnormal folding pathway and prevent pathogenic conformational changes. In this study, a prediction algorithm for the switch regions responsible for the start of pathogenic structural changes is introduced. With an accuracy of 94%, this algorithm can successfully find short segments covering sites significant in triggering conformational diseases (CDs and is the first that can predict switch regions for various CDs. To illustrate its effectiveness in dealing with urgent public health problems, the reason of the increased pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza virus is analyzed; the mechanisms of the pandemic swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1 influenza virus in overcoming species barriers and in infecting large number of potential patients are also suggested. It is shown that the algorithm is a potential tool useful in the study of the pathology of CDs because: (1 it can identify the origin of pathogenic structural conversion with high sensitivity and specificity, and (2 it provides an ideal target for clinical treatment.

  9. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  10. Meditation-induced changes in high-frequency heart rate variability predict smoking outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Libby

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: High-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV is a measure of parasympathetic nervous system output that has been associated with enhanced self-regulation. Low resting levels of HF-HRV are associated with nicotine dependence and blunted stress-related changes in HF-HRV are associated with decreased ability to resist smoking. Meditation has been shown to increase HF-HRV. However, it is unknown whether tonic levels of HF-HRV or acute changes in HF-HRV during meditation predict treatment responses in addictive behaviors such as smoking cessation. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between HF-HRV and subsequent smoking outcomes. Methods: HF-HRV during resting baseline and during mindfulness meditation was measured within two weeks of completing a 4-week smoking cessation intervention in a sample of 31 community participants. Self-report measures of smoking were obtained at a follow up 17-weeks after the initiation of treatment. Results: Regression analyses indicated that individuals exhibiting acute increases in HF-HRV from resting baseline to meditation smoked fewer cigarettes at follow-up than those who exhibited acute decreases in HF-HRV (b=-4.94, p=.009. Conclusion: Acute changes in HF-HRV in response to meditation may be a useful tool to predict smoking cessation treatment response.

  11. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  12. CORAL: classification model for predictions of anti-sarcoma activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, A A; Toropova, A P; Benfenati, E; Gini, G; Leszczynska, D; Leszczynski, J

    2012-01-01

    A modified version of the CORAL software (http://www.insilico.eu/coral) allows building up the classification model for the case of the Yes/No data on the anti-sarcoma activity of organic compounds. Three random splits into the sub-training, calibration, and test sets of the data for 3017 compounds were examined. The performance of the proposed approach is satisfactory. The average values of the statistical characteristics for external test set on three random splits are as follows: n=1173-1234, sensitivity = 0.8903±0.0390, specificity = 0.9869±0.0013, and accuracy = 0.9759±0.0043. Mechanistic interpretation of the suggested model is discussed.

  13. Monitoring and restabilizing structures under external excitations through detection and prediction of changes in structural properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastijanovic, Nebojsa

    The primary goal of this dissertation is the development of methods for prediction and detection of damage in structures under external excitations through the use of sensors and actuators. The first example involves developing an active flutter suppression algorithm for a flat panel in flight and space vehicles using embedded piezoceramic actuators. A basic eigenvector orientation approach is used to evaluate the possibility of controlling the onset of panel flutter. Eigenvectors for two consecutive modes are usually orthogonal and the onset of flutter condition can be observed earlier as they start to lose their orthogonality. Piezoelectric layers are assumed to be bonded to the top and bottom surfaces of the panel in order to provide counter-bending moments at joints between elements. The controllers are designed to modify the stiffness of the structure and re-stabilize the system; as a result, flutter occurrence can be offset to a higher flutter speed. To illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed method, several simple wide beam examples using piezoelectric layers as actuators are studied and presented. Controllers based on different control objectives are considered and the effects of control moment locations are studied. Potential applications of this basic method may be straightforwardly applied to plate and shell structures of laminated composites. The second example includes developing a method for detecting, locating, and quantifying structural damage using acceleration measurements as feedback. This method directly uses time domain structural vibration measurements and the effects of different damages are decoupled in the controller design. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with illustrative examples of a three and an eight-story model as well as a single story steel frame model with changes in joint flexibility. Finally, the progress on developing a hybrid structural health monitoring system is presented through

  14. Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Biao; Xu, Yi Jun

    2014-10-01

    This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5° × 0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001-2010, 2041-2050, and 2091-2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p change from 30.7 t/ha in 2001 to 25.4, 26.6, and 27.0 t/ha in 2100, respectively. Annual SOC changes will be significantly different among the land cover classes including evergreen forest, mixed forest, deciduous forest, small grains, row crops, and pasture/hay (p < 0.0001), emissions scenarios (p < 0.0001), and their interactions (p < 0.0001).

  15. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Soer, Remko; Jan H B Geertzen; van der Schans, Cees P; Johan W. Groothoff; Reneman, Michiel F

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity, and duration of DOMS after performing work-related activities during a Functional Capacity Evaluation in healthy participants. Methods: Included in this study were 197 healthy participants (102 m...

  16. Prediction of insecticidal activity of Bacillus thuringiensis strains by polymerase chain reaction product profiles.

    OpenAIRE

    Carozzi, N B; Kramer, V C; Warren, G W; Evola, S; Koziel, M G

    1991-01-01

    A rapid analysis of Bacillus thuringiensis strains predictive of insecticidal activity was established by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. Primers specific to regions of high homology within genes encoding three major classes of B. thuringiensis crystal proteins were used to generate a PCR product profile characteristic of each insecticidal class. Predictions of insecticidal activity were made on the basis of the electrophoretic patterns of the PCR products. Included in the s...

  17. CHANGES IN QUADRICEPS MUSCLE ACTIVITY DURING SUSTAINED RECREATIONAL ALPINE SKIING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Kröll

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available During a day of skiing thousands of repeated contractions take place. Previous research on prolonged recreational alpine skiing show that physiological changes occur and hence some level of fatigue is inevitable. In the present paper the effect of prolonged skiing on the recruitment and coordination of the muscle activity was investigated. Six subjects performed 24 standardized runs. Muscle activity during the first two (PREskiing and the last two (POSTskiing runs was measured from the vastus lateralis (VL and rectus femoris (RF using EMG and quantified using wavelet and principal component analysis. The frequency content of the EMG signal shifted in seven out of eight cases significantly towards lower frequencies with highest effects observed for RF on outside leg. A significant pronounced outside leg loading occurred during POSTskiing and the timing of muscle activity peaks occurred more towards turn completion. Specific EMG frequency changes were observed at certain time points throughout the time windows and not over the whole double turn. It is suggested that general muscular fatigue, where additional specific muscle fibers have to be recruited due to the reduced power output of other fibers did not occur. The EMG frequency decrease and intensity changes for RF and VL are caused by altered timing (coordination within the turn towards a most likely more uncontrolled skiing technique. Hence, these data provide evidence to suggest recreational skiers alter their skiing technique before a potential change in muscle fiber recruitment occurs

  18. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  19. Predicting future morphological changes of lesions from radiotracer uptake in 18F-FDG-PET images.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulas Bagci

    Full Text Available We introduce a novel computational framework to enable automated identification of texture and shape features of lesions on (18F-FDG-PET images through a graph-based image segmentation method. The proposed framework predicts future morphological changes of lesions with high accuracy. The presented methodology has several benefits over conventional qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, due to its fully quantitative nature and high accuracy in each step of (i detection, (ii segmentation, and (iii feature extraction. To evaluate our proposed computational framework, thirty patients received 2 (18F-FDG-PET scans (60 scans total, at two different time points. Metastatic papillary renal cell carcinoma, cerebellar hemongioblastoma, non-small cell lung cancer, neurofibroma, lymphomatoid granulomatosis, lung neoplasm, neuroendocrine tumor, soft tissue thoracic mass, nonnecrotizing granulomatous inflammation, renal cell carcinoma with papillary and cystic features, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, metastatic alveolar soft part sarcoma, and small cell lung cancer were included in this analysis. The radiotracer accumulation in patients' scans was automatically detected and segmented by the proposed segmentation algorithm. Delineated regions were used to extract shape and textural features, with the proposed adaptive feature extraction framework, as well as standardized uptake values (SUV of uptake regions, to conduct a broad quantitative analysis. Evaluation of segmentation results indicates that our proposed segmentation algorithm has a mean dice similarity coefficient of 85.75 ± 1.75%. We found that 28 of 68 extracted imaging features were correlated well with SUV(max (p<0.05, and some of the textural features (such as entropy and maximum probability were superior in predicting morphological changes of radiotracer uptake regions longitudinally, compared to single intensity feature such as SUV(max. We also found that integrating textural features with

  20. A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

    2017-04-01

    "Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term

  1. Body Image and Body Change: Predictive Factors in an Iranian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted. PMID:24049621

  2. Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behshid Garrusi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI, Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD of age was 31.06 (10.24 years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.

  3. Utilizing change effort prediction to analyze modifiability of business rule architectures at the NHS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koen Smit; dr. Martijn Zoet

    2016-01-01

    From the article: Abstract Business rules (BR’s) play a critical role in an organization’s daily activities. With the increased use of BR (solutions) and ever increasing change frequency of BR’s the interest in modifiability guidelines that address the manageability of BR’s has increased as well. A

  4. Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

  5. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  6. Workplace exercise for changing health behavior related to physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grande, Antonio José; Cieslak, Fabrício; Silva, Valter

    2015-01-01

    Physical Activity in the workplace has received special attention from researchers who are looking to promote lifelong health and well-being. The workplace is being investigated as a possible place to assess and create strategies to help people to become healthier. The transtheoretical model and stages of change has been adapted as a tool to assess the stages of behavioral change towards exercising. To assess the change in health behavior following a three-month exercise program based in the workplace. A quasi-experimental study design was used in which 165 employees participated in the study. An intervention program of workplace exercise was applied for three months. Participants were assessed through the transtheoretical model and stages of change questionnaire before and after intervention to understand changes in their position on the behavioral change continuum. The number of employees who were physically active increased after the workplace exercise intervention (13.9% , 95% CI 9.5 to 20.1; P = 0.009). There was a significant decrease in the proportion of employees in the pre-contemplation stage (-6.1% , 95% CI 3.3 to 10.8; P = 0.045) and contemplation stage (-11.5% , 95% CI 7.5 to 17.3; P = 0.017), and a significant increase in the action stage (10.9% , 95% CI 7.0 to 16.6; P = 0.003). Engaging in workplace exercise has a significant positive effect on health behavior and willingness to become more physically active.

  7. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  8. Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This

  9. Microarray data can predict diurnal changes of starch content in the picoalga Ostreococcus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goryanin Igor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The storage of photosynthetic carbohydrate products such as starch is subject to complex regulation, effected at both transcriptional and post-translational levels. The relevant genes in plants show pronounced daily regulation. Their temporal RNA expression profiles, however, do not predict the dynamics of metabolite levels, due to the divergence of enzyme activity from the RNA profiles. Unicellular phytoplankton retains the complexity of plant carbohydrate metabolism, and recent transcriptomic profiling suggests a major input of transcriptional regulation. Results We used a quasi-steady-state, constraint-based modelling approach to infer the dynamics of starch content during the 12 h light/12 h dark cycle in the model alga Ostreococcus tauri. Measured RNA expression datasets from microarray analysis were integrated with a detailed stoichiometric reconstruction of starch metabolism in O. tauri in order to predict the optimal flux distribution and the dynamics of the starch content in the light/dark cycle. The predicted starch profile was validated by experimental data over the 24 h cycle. The main genetic regulatory targets within the pathway were predicted by in silico analysis. Conclusions A single-reaction description of starch production is not able to account for the observed variability of diurnal activity profiles of starch-related enzymes. We developed a detailed reaction model of starch metabolism, which, to our knowledge, is the first attempt to describe this polysaccharide polymerization while preserving the mass balance relationships. Our model and method demonstrate the utility of a quasi-steady-state approach for inferring dynamic metabolic information in O. tauri directly from time-series gene expression data.

  10. EFFICACY OF ACTIVATION PROCEDURES TO ILLUSTRATE EEG CHANGES IN EPILEPSY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rimpy Bhuyan

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND EEG or Electroencephalogram, which is the most important diagnostic procedure to evaluate Epilepsy patients, may sometimes fall short of accurate sensitivity and may require few Activation Procedures such as ‘Hyperventilation’ and ‘Sleep’ to bring out the active changes of an Epileptic brain. The present study was done with the aim of knowing the efficacy of such Activation Procedures like ‘Hyperventilation’ and ‘Sleep’ in illustrating the EEG wave pattern changes of an Epileptic brain during the interictal period. MATERIALS AND METHODS The present study was done in the Department of Physiology in association with the Department of Neurology, Assam Medical College & Hospital, Dibrugarh, Assam from June 2014 to May 2015. ‘113’ clinically diagnosed cases of Epilepsy were studied and analysed through Electroencephalogram using the internationally accepted 10-20 electrode placement method. Hyperventilation was used in 28 Epilepsy cases and Sleep was used in 14 Epilepsy cases. History & Physical examination findings were recorded in a Proforma. Chi-square analysis was done through GraphPad Prism 6 software to assess the significance of the activation procedures used. RESULTS Our study found that EEG of 42 cases out of the total 113 cases required Activation Procedures to elicit the wave pattern changes of the Epileptic brain. Hyperventilation was helpful in adult age group and sleep was useful in children age group. Hyperventilation had overall 53.57% sensitivity in detecting Epilepsy, and Sleep had 64.29% sensitivity in detecting Epilepsy. Hyperventilation was specifically helpful to elicit absence seizures where it had 75% sensitivity. CONCLUSION The sensitivity of EEG in detecting Epilepsy can thus be increased by using activation procedures like sleep & Hyperventilation to ensure that no epilepsy cases are missed out in diagnosis & treatment.

  11. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  12. Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sinclair, Brent J.; Marshall, Katie E.; Sewell, Mary A.;

    2016-01-01

    Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T-b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying...... this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T-b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs....... For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions...

  13. Investigation of an alternative generic model for predicting pharmacokinetic changes during physiological stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Henry T; Edginton, Andrea N; Cheung, Bob

    2013-10-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models were developed using MATLAB Simulink® and PK-Sim®. We compared the capability and usefulness of these two models by simulating pharmacokinetic changes of midazolam under exercise and heat stress to verify the usefulness of MATLAB Simulink® as a generic PBPK modeling software. Although both models show good agreement with experimental data obtained under resting condition, their predictions of pharmacokinetics changes are less accurate in the stressful conditions. However, MATLAB Simulink® may be more flexible to include physiologically based processes such as oral absorption and simulate various stress parameters such as stress intensity, duration and timing of drug administration to improve model performance. Further work will be conducted to modify algorithms in our generic model developed using MATLAB Simulink® and to investigate pharmacokinetics under other physiological stress such as trauma. © The Author(s) 2013.

  14. Designing a Collaborative Visual Analytics Tool for Social and Technological Change Prediction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, Pak C.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Ning; Scott, Michael J.; Mackey, Patrick S.; Foote, Harlan P.; Correia, James; Taylor, Zachary T.; Xu, Jianhua; Unwin, Stephen D.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2009-09-01

    We describe our ongoing efforts to design and develop a collaborative visual analytics tool to interactively model social and technological change of our society in a future setting. The work involves an interdisciplinary team of scientists from atmospheric physics, electrical engineering, building engineering, social sciences, economics, public policy, and national security. The goal of the collaborative tool is to predict the impact of global climate change on the U.S. power grids and its implications for society and national security. These future scenarios provide critical assessment and information necessary for policymakers and stakeholders to help formulate a coherent, unified strategy toward shaping a safe and secure society. The paper introduces the problem background and related work, explains the motivation and rationale behind our design approach, presents our collaborative visual analytics tool and usage examples, and finally shares the development challenge and lessons learned from our investigation.

  15. Prediction Signatures in the Brain: Semantic Pre-Activation during Language Comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maess, Burkhard; Mamashli, Fahimeh; Obleser, Jonas; Helle, Liisa; Friederici, Angela D.

    2016-01-01

    There is broad agreement that context-based predictions facilitate lexical-semantic processing. A robust index of semantic prediction during language comprehension is an evoked response, known as the N400, whose amplitude is modulated as a function of semantic context. However, the underlying neural mechanisms that utilize relations of the prior context and the embedded word within it are largely unknown. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) data while participants were listening to simple German sentences in which the verbs were either highly predictive for the occurrence of a particular noun (i.e., provided context) or not. The identical set of nouns was presented in both conditions. Hence, differences for the evoked responses of the nouns can only be due to differences in the earlier context. We observed a reduction of the N400 response for highly predicted nouns. Interestingly, the opposite pattern was observed for the preceding verbs: highly predictive (that is more informative) verbs yielded stronger neural magnitude compared to less predictive verbs. A negative correlation between the N400 effect of the verb and that of the noun was found in a distributed brain network, indicating an integral relation between the predictive power of the verb and the processing of the subsequent noun. This network consisted of left hemispheric superior and middle temporal areas and a subcortical area; the parahippocampus. Enhanced activity for highly predictive relative to less predictive verbs, likely reflects establishing semantic features associated with the expected nouns, that is a pre-activation of the expected nouns. PMID:27895573

  16. Strain energy density gradients in bone marrow predict osteoblast and osteoclast activity: a finite element study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Duncan; Schulte, Friederike A; Lambers, Floor M; Kuhn, Gisela; Müller, Ralph

    2015-03-18

    Huiskes et al. hypothesized that mechanical strains sensed by osteocytes residing in trabecular bone dictate the magnitude of load-induced bone formation. More recently, the mechanical environment in bone marrow has also been implicated in bone׳s response to mechanical stimulation. In this study, we hypothesize that trabecular load-induced bone formation can be predicted by mechanical signals derived from an integrative µFE model, incorporating a description of both the bone and marrow phase. Using the mouse tail loading model in combination with in vivo micro-computed tomography (µCT) we tracked load induced changes in the sixth caudal vertebrae of C57BL/6 mice to quantify the amount of newly mineralized and eroded bone volumes. To identify the mechanical signals responsible for adaptation, local morphometric changes were compared to micro-finite element (µFE) models of vertebrae prior to loading. The mechanical parameters calculated were strain energy density (SED) on trabeculae at bone forming and resorbing surfaces, SED in the marrow at the boundary between bone forming and resorbing surfaces, along with SED in the trabecular bone and marrow volumes. The gradients of each parameter were also calculated. Simple regression analysis showed mean SED gradients in the trabecular bone matrix to significantly correlate with newly mineralized and eroded bone volumes R(2)=0.57 and 0.41, respectively, pbone marrow plays a significant role in determining osteoblast and osteoclast activity.

  17. Predicting involvement in prison gang activity: street gang membership, social and psychological factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Jane L; Alleyne, Emma; Mozova, Katarina; James, Mark

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether street gang membership, psychological factors, and social factors such as preprison experiences could predict young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Data were collected via individual interviews with 188 young offenders held in a Young Offenders Institution in the United Kingdom. Results showed that psychological factors such as the value individuals attached to social status, a social dominance orientation, and antiauthority attitudes were important in predicting young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Further important predictors included preimprisonment events such as levels of threat, levels of individual delinquency, and levels of involvement in group crime. Longer current sentences also predicted involvement in prison gang activity. However, street gang membership was not an important predictor of involvement in prison gang activity. These findings have implications for identifying prisoners involved in prison gang activity and for considering the role of psychological factors and group processes in gang research.

  18. Comparative study to predict dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitory activity of β-amino amide scaffold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Patil

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparative study was performed on 34 β-amino amide derivatives as dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitors in order to determine their structural requirement to enhance the antidiabetic activities. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships models utilized specialized fragment fingerprints (hologram length 353 which showed good predictivity with cross-validated q 2 and conventional r 2 values of 0.971 and 0.971, respectively. Models were validated and optimized by a test set of eight compounds and gave satisfactory predictive ability. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships maps were helpful in prediction of the structural features of the ligands to account for the activity in terms of positively and negatively contributing towards activity. The information obtained from maps could be effectively use as a guiding tool for further structure modifications and synthesis of new potent antidiabetic agents.

  19. Predicted disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain due to changes in rainfall patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Ju Xiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of C. obcordata to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that C. obcordata can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought. CONCLUSIONS: The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of C. obcordata in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the C. obcordata population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.

  20. Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ripszam, M., E-mail: matyas.ripszam@chem.umu.se [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Gallampois, C.M.J. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Berglund, Å. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Larsson, H. [Umeå Marine Sciences Centre, Umeå University, Norrbyn, 905 71 Hörnefors (Sweden); Andersson, A. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

    2015-06-01

    Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L{sup −1} and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L{sup −1}, respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate.

  1. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kangalawe Richard YM

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. Methods The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI. The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. Results These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Conclusion Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria

  2. PREDICTING THE CHANGE OF CHILD’S BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS: SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND MATERNAL PARENTING STRESS FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelina Viduoliene

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: evaluate 1 whether child’s externalizing problems increase or decrease within 12 months period; 2 the change of externalizing problems with respect to child gender and age, and 3 which maternal parenting stress factors and family sociodemographic characteristics can predict the increase and decrease of child’s externalizing problems. Design/methodology/approach: participants were evaluated 2 times (with the interval of 12 months with the Parenting Stress Index (Abidin, 1990 and Child Behavior Checklist 1.5−5 years (Achenbach, Rescorla, 2000 questionnaires. Findings: Child’s externalizing problems decreased within 12 months period. There were no effects of child’s age, gender and age*gender interaction on externalizing problems change within 12 months period. Higher initial level and more negative change within 12 months period of maternal parenting stress related to child characteristics, more stressful events in family life predicted the increase of child’s externalizing problems. Research limitations/implications: maternal parenting stress and child’s externalizing problems are related and may influence each other simultaneously. Child’s externalizing problems decrease within one year period in overall 2−5 years old children group. The change of child’s aggressive behavior and hyperactivity, distractibility should be evaluated individually, separately from each other. Practical implications: maternal parenting stress and child’s behavior problems are closely related to each other, it may be meaningful organize intervention for mothers in order to prevent child’s externalizing problems increase. Keywords: maternal parenting stress, externalizing problems, childhood, toddlerhood, longitudinal research. Research type: research paper.

  3. Oscillatory brain activity in the time frequency domain associated to change blindness and change detection awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darriba, Alvaro; Pazo-Álvarez, Paula; Capilla, Almudena; Amenedo, Elena

    2012-02-01

    Despite the importance of change detection (CD) for visual perception and for performance in our environment, observers often miss changes that should be easily noticed. In the present study, we employed time-frequency analysis to investigate the neural activity associated with CD and change blindness (CB). Observers were presented with two successive visual displays and had to look for a change in orientation in any one of four sinusoid gratings between both displays. Theta power increased widely over the scalp after the second display when a change was consciously detected. Relative to no-change and CD, CB was associated with a pronounced theta power enhancement at parietal-occipital and occipital sites and broadly distributed alpha power suppression during the processing of the prechange display. Finally, power suppressions in the beta band following the second display show that, even when a change is not consciously detected, it might be represented to a certain degree. These results show the potential of time-frequency analysis to deepen our knowledge of the temporal curse of the neural events underlying CD. The results further reveal that the process resulting in CB begins even before the occurrence of the change itself.

  4. Neurobehavioral evidence for changes in dopamine system activity during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlstrom, Dustin; White, Tonya; Luciana, Monica

    2010-04-01

    Human adolescence has been characterized by increases in risk-taking, emotional lability, and deficient patterns of behavioral regulation. These behaviors have often been attributed to changes in brain structure that occur during this developmental period, notably alterations in gray and white matter that impact synaptic architecture in frontal, limbic, and striatal regions. In this review, we provide a rationale for considering that these behaviors may be due to changes in dopamine system activity, particularly overactivity, during adolescence relative to either childhood or adulthood. This rationale relies on animal data due to limitations in assessing neurochemical activity more directly in juveniles. Accordingly, we also present a strategy that incorporates molecular genetic techniques to infer the status of the underlying tone of the dopamine system across developmental groups. Implications for the understanding of adolescent behavioral development are discussed.

  5. Prediction of pelvic inflammatory disease among young, single, sexually active women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Roberta B; Smith, Kenneth J; Chang, Chung-Chou H; Schisterman, Enrique F; Bass, Debra C

    2006-03-01

    To assess prediction strategies for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). One thousand one hundred seventy women were enrolled based on a high chlamydial risk score. Incident PID over a median of 3 years was diagnosed by either histologic endometritis or Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. A multivariable prediction model for PID was assessed. Women enrolled using the risk score were young, single, sexually active, and often had prior sexually transmitted infections. Incident PID was common (8.6%). From 24 potential predictors, significant factors included age at first sex, gonococcal/chlamydial cervicitis, history of PID, family income, smoking, medroxyprogesterone acetate use, and sex with menses. The model correctly predicted 74% of incident PID; in validation models, correct prediction was only 69%. Our data validate a modified chlamydial risk factor scoring system for prediction of PID. Additional multivariable modeling contributed little to prediction. Women identified by a threshold value on the chlamydial risk score should undergo intensive education and screening.

  6. New Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Models Improve Predictability of Ames Mutagenicity for Aromatic Azo Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manganelli, Serena; Benfenati, Emilio; Manganaro, Alberto; Kulkarni, Sunil; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S; Honma, Masamitsu

    2016-10-01

    Existing Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have limited predictive capabilities for aromatic azo compounds. In this study, 2 new models were built to predict Ames mutagenicity of this class of compounds. The first one made use of descriptors based on simplified molecular input-line entry system (SMILES), calculated with the CORAL software. The second model was based on the k-nearest neighbors algorithm. The statistical quality of the predictions from single models was satisfactory. The performance further improved when the predictions from these models were combined. The prediction results from other QSAR models for mutagenicity were also evaluated. Most of the existing models were found to be good at finding toxic compounds but resulted in many false positive predictions. The 2 new models specific for this class of compounds avoid this problem thanks to a larger set of related compounds as training set and improved algorithms.

  7. Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Eunsil; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2016-07-01

    Severe convective storms cause catastrophic losses each year in the United States, suggesting that any predictive capability is of great societal benefit. While it is known that El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence high impact weather events, such as a tornado activity and severe storms, in the US during early spring, this study highlights that the influence of ENSO on US severe storm characteristics is weak during May-July. Instead, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is a potential predictor for moist instability, which is an important factor in influencing the storm characteristics in the US during May-July.

  8. Regional brain activity and strenuous exercise: predicting affective responses using EEG asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Eric E; Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Petruzzello, Steven J

    2007-05-01

    Previous research using the model proposed by Davidson has shown that resting frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) asymmetry can predict affective responses to aerobic exercise at moderate intensities. Specifically, greater relative left frontal activity has been shown to predict positive affect (i.e., energy) following exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if resting frontal EEG asymmetry would predict affective responses following strenuous exercise. Thirty participants (13 women, 17 men) completed a maximal graded exercise test on a treadmill. EEG was recorded prior to exercise. Affect was measured by the Activation Deactivation Adjective Check List prior to the graded exercise test, immediately following, 10 and 20-min following exercise. Greater relative left frontal activity predicted tiredness and calmness during recovery from exercise, but not tension or energy. Tiredness and calmness following exercise covaried, suggesting that tiredness following exercise might not have been linked with displeasure. These findings offer further support for the link between EEG asymmetry and affective responses to exercise.

  9. The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

    2010-01-01

    Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

  10. A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungyoung Lee

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users” actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences.

  11. Pancreatic lipase activity in overnight effluent predicts high transport status in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idei, Mayumi; Tabe, Yoko; Hamada, Chieko; Miyake, Kazunori; Takemura, Hiroyuki; Io, Hiroaki; Wakita, Mitsuru; Horii, Takashi; Tomino, Yasuhiko; Ohsaka, Akimichi; Miida, Takashi

    2016-11-01

    Long-term peritoneal dialysis (PD) causes peritoneal morphological and functional changes, resulting in high transport status featuring increased peritoneal permeability. High transport status is diagnosed by peritoneal equilibration test (PET), a reliable but time-consuming method. We identifed a reliable biomarker in peritoneal effluent to predict high transport status in PD patients. We collected peritoneal effluent and serum from 33 PD patients and measured common laboratory test parameters. High transport status was determined by PET if the dialysate/plasma ratio of creatinine at 4h dwell (D/P Cr 4h) was ≥0.81. There were significant correlations between D/P Cr 4h and some laboratory parameters in overnight effluent (pancreatic lipase activity, r=0.65, povernight effluent was identified as an independent predictor of high transport status even after adjusting for age, PD duration, and glomerular filtration rate [OR=1.43 (95% CI: 1.11-1.83), p=0.005]. The pancreatic lipase activity in overnight effluent is an independent predictor of high transport status in PD patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Learning new gait patterns: Exploratory muscle activity during motor learning is not predicted by motor modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Rajiv; Krishnan, Chandramouli; Dhaher, Yasin Y; Rymer, William Z

    2016-03-21

    The motor module hypothesis in motor control proposes that the nervous system can simplify the problem of controlling a large number of muscles in human movement by grouping muscles into a smaller number of modules. Here, we tested one prediction of the modular organization hypothesis by examining whether there is preferential exploration along these motor modules during the learning of a new gait pattern. Healthy college-aged participants learned a new gait pattern which required increased hip and knee flexion during the swing phase while walking in a lower-extremity robot (Lokomat). The new gait pattern was displayed as a foot trajectory in the sagittal plane and participants attempted to match their foot trajectory to this template. We recorded EMG from 8 lower-extremity muscles and we extracted motor modules during both baseline walking and target-tracking using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). Results showed increased trajectory variability in the first block of learning, indicating that participants were engaged in exploratory behavior. Critically, when we examined the muscle activity during this exploratory phase, we found that the composition of motor modules changed significantly within the first few strides of attempting the new gait pattern. The lack of persistence of the motor modules under even short time scales suggests that motor modules extracted during locomotion may be more indicative of correlated muscle activity induced by the task constraints of walking, rather than reflecting a modular control strategy.

  13. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

    2013-06-01

    "Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption-that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity-rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

  14. High throughput computing to improve efficiency of predicting protein stability change upon mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao-Chin; Lai, Lien-Fu; Gromiha, M Michael; Huang, Liang-Tsung

    2014-01-01

    Predicting protein stability change upon mutation is important for protein design. Although several methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy it will be difficult to employ those methods when the required input information is incomplete. In this work, we integrated a fuzzy query model based on the knowledge-based approach to overcome this problem, and then we proposed a high throughput computing method based on parallel technologies in emerging cluster or grid systems to discriminate stability change. To improve the load balance of heterogeneous computing power in cluster and grid nodes, a variety of self-scheduling schemes have been implemented. Further, we have tested the method by performing different analyses and the results showed that the present method can process hundreds of predication queries in more reasonable response time and perform a super linear speedup to a maximum of 86.2 times. We have also established a website tool to implement the proposed method and it is available at http://bioinformatics.myweb.hinet.net/para.htm.

  15. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Zhao, Yao; Pei, Lin; Zhao, Jiancheng

    2016-01-01

    Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the “very good” category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time. PMID:27661983

  16. Factors influencing the predictability of soft tissue profile changes following mandibular setback surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobarak, K A; Krogstad, O; Espeland, L; Lyberg, T

    2001-06-01

    The objective of this cephalometric study was to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular setback surgery and investigate the presence of factors that may influence the soft tissue response to skeletal repositioning. The subjects enrolled were 80 consecutive mandibular prognathism patients operated with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken at 6 occasions: immediate presurgical, immediate postsurgical, 2 and 6 months postsurgical, and 1 and 3 years postsurgical. The subjects were grouped according to gender and magnitude of setback. Ratios of soft tissue to hard tissue movements were calculated for the subgroups. Females generally demonstrated greater ratios than males with a statistically significant difference for the upper lip and chin (P < .05). Postsurgical alterations in the profiles were more predictable in patients with larger setbacks compared to patients with smaller ones. Skeletal relapse had a profound influence on long-term profile changes. Based on these findings, it is proposed that the database used in prediction software be adjusted to account for such factors in an attempt to improve the accuracy of computerized treatment simulations.

  17. Changes in autonomic activity preceding onset of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, M.; Saitoh, H.; Sasabe, N.; Atarashi, H.; Katoh, T.; Hayakawa, H.; Cohen, R. J.

    1996-01-01

    Background: The triggering role of the autonomic nervous system in the initiation of ventricular tachycardia has not been established. To investigate the relationship between changes in autonomic activity and the occurrence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) we examined heart rate variability (HRV) during the 2-hour period preceding spontaneous episodes of NSVT. Twenty-four subjects were identified retrospectively as having had one episode of NSVT during 24-hour Holter ECC recording. Methods: We measured the mean interval between normal heats (meanRR), the standard deviation of the intervals between beats (SD), the percentage of counts of sequential intervals between normal beats with a change of >50 ms (%RR50), the logarithms of low- and high-frequency spectral components (lnLF, lnHF) of HRV for sequential 10-minute segments preceding NSVT. The correlation dimension (CDim) of HRV was calculated similarly for sequential 20-minute segments. We assessed the significance of the time-course change of each marker over the 120-minute period prior to NSVT onset. Results: MeanRR (P parasympathetic activity, perhaps in conjunction with an increase in sympathetic activity, may trigger NSVT.

  18. Endosulfan induces changes in spontaneous swimming activity and acetylcholinesterase activity of Jenynsia multidentata (Anablepidae, Cyprinodontiformes)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, M.L. [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Catedra Diversidad Animal II, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 299, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Durando, P.E. [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Departamento de Biologia, Catedra de Fisiologia Animal, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Complejo ' Islas Malvinas' , Av. Jose I. de la Roza y Meglioli, Rivadavia, San Juan (Argentina); Nores, M.L. [Facultad de Ciencias Medicas, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba-CONICET, Ciudad Universitaria, Cordoba (Argentina); Diaz, M.P. [Facultad de Ciencias Medicas, Catedra de Estadistica y Bioestadistica, Escuela de Nutricion, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Pabellon Chile, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Bistoni, M.A., E-mail: mbistoni@com.uncor.ed [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Catedra Diversidad Animal II, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 299, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Wunderlin, D.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas, Dto. Bioquimica Clinica-CIBICI, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba-CONICET, Haya de la Torre esq. Medina Allende, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina)

    2009-05-15

    We assessed changes in spontaneous swimming activity and acetylcholinesterase (AchE) activity of Jenynsia multidentata exposed to Endosulfan (EDS). Females of J. multidentata were exposed to 0.072 and 1.4 mug L{sup -1} EDS. Average speed and movement percentage were recorded during 48 h. We also exposed females to EDS at five concentrations between 0.072 and 1.4 mug L{sup -1} during 24 h, and measured the AchE activity in brain and muscle. At 0.072 mug L{sup -1} EDS swimming motility decreased relative to the control group after 45 h, while at 1.4 mug L{sup -1} EDS swimming motility decreased after 24 h. AchE activity significantly decreased in muscle when J. multidentata were exposed to EDS above 0.072 mug L{sup -1}, while no significant changes were observed in brain. Thus, changes in swimming activity and AchE activity in muscle are good biomarkers of exposure to EDS in J. multidentata. - This work reports changes observed in spontaneous swimming activity and AchE activity of Jenynsia multidentata exposed to sublethal concentrations of Endosulfan.

  19. Promoting physical activity and reducing climate change : Opportunities to replace short car trips with active transportation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maibach, E.; Steg, L.; Anable, J.

    2009-01-01

    Automobile use is a significant contributor to climate change, local air pollution, pedestrian injuries and deaths, declines in physical activity and obesity. A significant proportion of car use is for short trips that can relatively easily be taken with active transportation options - walking or

  20. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  1. Changes in Income at Macro Level Predict Sex Ratio at Birth in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanninen, Ohto; Karhula, Aleksi

    2016-01-01

    The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) is approximately 107 boys for every 100 girls. SRB was rising until the World War II and has been declining slightly after the 1950s in several industrial countries. Recent studies have shown that SRB varies according to exposure to disasters and socioeconomic conditions. However, it remains unknown whether changes in SRB can be explained by observable macro-level socioeconomic variables across multiple years and countries. Here we show that changes in disposable income at the macro level positively predict SRB in OECD countries. A one standard deviation increase in the change of disposable income is associated with an increase of 1.03 male births per 1000 female births. The relationship is possibly nonlinear and driven by extreme changes. The association varies from country to country being particular strong in Estonia. This is the first evidence to show that economic and social conditions are connected to SRB across countries at the macro level. This calls for further research on the effects of societal conditions on general characteristics at birth.

  2. [Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xia; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Mu, Chen; Lin, Jun

    2017-02-01

    Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  3. A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Renner

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009 presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing.

    Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

  4. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  5. Activation of vegetated parabolic dunes into mobile barchans under potential environmental change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Na; Baas, Andreas C. W.

    2016-04-01

    Parabolic dunes are a quintessential example of the co-evolution of soil, landform, and vegetation, and they are found around the world, on coasts, river valleys, lake shores, and margins of deserts and steppes. These areas are often sensitive to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings and socio-economic activities. Some studies have indicated parabolic dunes can lose vegetation and transform into barchan and transverse dunes by environmental change such as decreased precipitation or lowered water table, as well as anthropogenic stress such as increased burning and grazing. These transformations and shifts between states of eco-geomorphic systems may have significant implications on land management and social-economic development. This study utilises the Extended-DECAL - parameterised by field measurements of dune topography and vegetation characteristics combined with remote sensing - to explore how increases in drought stress, wind strength, and grazing stress may lead to the activation of stabilised parabolic dunes into highly mobile barchans. The modelling results show that the mobility of an initial parabolic dune at the outset of perturbations determines to a large extent the capacity of a system to absorb the environmental change, and a slight increase in vegetation cover of an initial parabolic dune can increase the activation threshold significantly. Plants with a higher deposition tolerance increase the activation threshold for the climatic impact and sand transport rate, whereas the erosion tolerance of plants influences the patterns of resulting barchans. The change in the characteristics of eco-geomorphic interaction zones may indirectly reflect the dune stability and predict an ongoing transformation, whilst the activation angle may be potentially used as a proxy of environmental stresses. In contrast to the natural environmental changes which tend to affect relatively weak and young plants, grazing stress can exert a broader impact on all

  6. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  7. Fibrinolytic changes in pregnant women on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osime, Odaburhine E; Ese-Onakewhor, Joseph U; Kolade, Samson O

    2015-02-01

    To report on the changes in fibrinolytic activity in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected pregnant women who are undergoing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Blood was collected from 50 HIV positive women on HAART (test subjects), and 50 HIV positive women not on HAART (controls). These women were attending the prevention of mother to child clinic (PMTCT) of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria from January to June 2014. Standard manual techniques were used to estimate plasma fibrinogen concentration (PFC), euglobulin lysis time (ELT), packed cell volume (PCV), and plasma viscosity (PV). The mean ± standard error of mean (SEM) of PFC was 4.02±0.13 g/l and ELT from the test subjects was 378±15 mins was significantly higher (p0.05). There were differences in the various parameters investigated when the various trimesters were compared. These differences did not, however, follow a particular pattern. Highly active antiretroviral therapy can cause changes in fibrinolytic activity that may predispose pregnant women to hyperfibrinogenemia and anemia.

  8. The Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment: Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Social-Ecological Change in the Far North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, M. C.; Goetz, S. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Kimball, J. S.; Boelman, N.

    2015-12-01

    In the high northern latitudes, climate is warming more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, transforming vulnerable arctic tundra and boreal forest landscapes. These changes are altering the structure and function of energy, water and carbon cycles, producing significant feedbacks to regional and global climate through changes in energy, water and carbon cycles. These changes are also challenging local and global society. At the local level, communities seek to adapt to new social-ecological regimes. At the global level, changing arctic and boreal systems are increasing becoming the focus of policy discussions at all levels of decision-making. National and international scientific efforts associated with a new NASA field campaign, the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABOVE) will advance our ability to observe, understand and predict the complex, multiscale and non-linear processes that are confronting the natural and social systems in this rapidly changing region. Over the next decade, the newly assembled ABOVE Science Team will pursue this overarching question: "How vulnerable or resilient are ecosystems and society to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal region of western North America?" Through integration of remote sensing and in situ observations with modeling of both ecological and social systems, the ABOVE Science Team will advance an interdisciplinary understanding of the Far North. In this presentation, we will discuss the conceptual basis for the ABOVE Field Campaign, describe Science Team composition and timeline, and update the community on activities. In addition, we will reflect on the visionary role of Dr. Diane Wickland, retired NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program Manager and lead of the Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area, in the development and commencement of ABOVE.

  9. Do active design buildings change health behaviour and workplace perceptions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelen, L; Dhillon, H M; Chau, J Y; Hespe, D; Bauman, A E

    2016-07-01

    Occupying new, active design office buildings designed for health promotion and connectivity provides an opportunity to evaluate indoor environment effects on healthy behaviour, sedentariness and workplace perceptions. To determine if moving to a health-promoting building changed workplace physical activity, sedentary behaviour, workplace perceptions and productivity. Participants from four locations at the University of Sydney, Australia, relocated into a new active design building. After consent, participants completed an online questionnaire 2 months before moving and 2 months after. Questions related to health behaviours (physical activity and sitting time), musculoskeletal issues, perceptions of the office environment, productivity and engagement. There were 34 participants (60% aged 25-45, 78% female, 84% employed full-time); 21 participants provided complete data. Results showed that after the move participants spent less work time sitting (83-70%; P workplace were in an open-plan office, compared to 16% before moving. Participants perceived the new work environment as more stimulating, better lit and ventilated, but noisier and providing less storage. No difference was reported in daily physical activity, number of stairs climbed or productivity. Moving to an active design building appeared to have physical health-promoting effects on workers, but workers' perceptions about the new work environment varied. These results will inform future studies in other new buildings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. CHANG-ES - VIII. Uncovering hidden AGN activity in radio polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Judith A.; Schmidt, Philip; Damas-Segovia, A.; Beck, Rainer; English, Jayanne; Heald, George; Henriksen, Richard N.; Krause, Marita; Li, Jiang-Tao; Rand, Richard J.; Wang, Q. Daniel; Wiegert, Theresa; Kamieneski, Patrick; Paré, Dylan; Sullivan, Kendall

    2017-01-01

    We report on C-band (5-7 GHz) observations of the galaxy, NGC 2992, from the Continuum Halos in Nearby Galaxies - an EVLA Survey (CHANG-ES) sample. This galaxy displays an embedded nuclear double-lobed radio morphology within its spiral disc, as revealed in linearly polarized emission but not in total intensity emission. The radio lobes are kpc-sized, similar to what has been observed in the past for other Seyfert galaxies, and show ordered magnetic fields. NGC 2992 has shown previous evidence for AGN-related activity, but not the linearly polarized radio features that we present here. We draw attention to this galaxy as the first clear example (and prototype) of bipolar radio outflow that is revealed in linearly polarized emission only. Such polarization observations, which are unobscured by dust, provide a new tool for uncovering hidden weak active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity which may otherwise be masked by brighter unpolarized emission within which it is embedded. The radio lobes observed in NGC 2992 are interacting with the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) and offer new opportunities to investigate the interactions between nuclear outflows and the ISM in nearby galaxies. We also compare the radio emission with a new CHANDRA X-ray image of this galaxy. A new CHANG-ES image of NGC 3079 is also briefly shown as another example as to how much more obvious radio lobes appear in linear polarization as opposed to total intensity.

  11. Early hematologic changes during prostate cancer radiotherapy predictive for late urinary and bowel toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkawa, Michael; Djukic, Victoria; Klotz, Jens; Holy, Richard; Eble, Michael J. [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Aachen (Germany); Ribbing, Carolina [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Aachen (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    The primary objective of the study was to identify early hematologic changes predictive for radiotherapy (RT)-associated genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxicity. In a group of 91 prostate cancer patients presenting for primary (n = 51) or postoperative (n = 40) curative RT, blood samples (blood count, acute phase proteins, and cytokines) were analyzed before (T1), three times during (T2-T4), and 6-8 weeks after (T5) radiotherapy. Before RT (baseline), on the last day (acute toxicity), a median of 2 months and 16 months (late toxicity) after RT, patients responded to a validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite). Acute score changes > 20 points and late changes > 10 points were considered clinically relevant. Radiotherapy resulted in significant changes of hematologic parameters, with the largest effect on lymphocytes (mean decrease of 31-45 %) and significant dependence on target volume. C-reactive protein (CRP) elevation > 5 mg/l and hemoglobin level decrease ≥ 5 G/1 at T2 were found to be independently predictive for acute urinary toxicity (p < 0.01, respectively). CRP elevation was predominantly detected in primary prostate RT (p = 0.02). Early lymphocyte level elevation ≥ 0.3G/l at T2 was protective against late urinary and bowel toxicity (p = 0.02, respectively). Other significant predictive factors for late bowel toxicity were decreasing hemoglobin levels (cut-off ≥ 5 G/l) at T2 (p = 0.04); changes of TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor; p = 0.03) and ferritin levels (p = 0.02) at T5. All patients with late bowel toxicity had interleukin (IL)-6 levels < 1.5 ng/l at T2 (63 % without; p = 0.01). Early hematologic changes during prostate cancer radiotherapy are predictive for late urinary and bowel toxicity. (orig.) [German] Das primaere Ziel der Studie war die Identifikation von fruehen haematologischen Veraenderungen mit praediktiver Bedeutung fuer radiotherapieassoziierte genitourinale und gastrointestinale Toxizitaet. In einer

  12. Early changes of procalcitonin predict bacteremia in patients with intensive care unit-acquired new fever

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; DU Bin; XU Ying-chun; RUI Xi; DU Wei; WANG Yao

    2013-01-01

    Background Rapid detection of bacteremia is important for critically ill patients.Procalcitonin (PCT) has emerged as a marker of sepsis,but its characterization for predicting bacteremia is still unclear.This study aimed to investigate the role of change of PCT within 6 to 12 hours after new fever in predicting bacteremia.Methods An observational study was conducted in the ICU of our hospital from January 2009 to March 2010.Adult patients with new fever were included and grouped as bacteremia and non bacteremia group.Serum PCT concentration was measured at admission and within 6 to12 hours after new fever (designated PCT0 and PCT1).Other results of laboratory tests and therapeutic interventions were recorded.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of bacteremia.The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was constructed to evaluate the discriminative power of variables to predict bacteremia.Results Totally 106 patients were enrolled,60 of whom had bacteremia and 46 did not have bacteremia,.The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were 13.1±7.8 and 5.0±2.2 at admission,respectively.There was no significant difference in PCT0 between the bacteremia group and nonbacteremia group; 1.27μg/L (range,0.10-33.3) vs.0.98μg/L (range,0.08-25.7),(P=-0.157).However,the PCT1 and the rate of change of PCT were significantly higher in bacteremia group; PCT1 was 6.73μg/L (1.13-120.10)vs.1.17μg/L (0.10-12.10) (P=0.001),and the rate of change was 5.62 times (1.05-120.6) vs.0.07 times (-0.03-0.18)(P<0.001).The area under the ROC curve (AUC; 95% confidence interval) of the rate of change of PCT was better for predicting bacteremia than that of PCT1; 0.864 (range,0.801-0.927) vs.0.715 (range,0.628-0.801),(P<0.05).The AUCs of PCT0 and other parameters (such as WBC count,granulocyte percentage and temperature) were not significantly different (all P>0

  13. Age-related changes of frontal-midline theta is predictive of efficient memory maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardos, Z; Tóth, B; Boha, R; File, B; Molnár, M

    2014-07-25

    Frontal areas are thought to be the coordinators of working memory processes by controlling other brain areas reflected by oscillatory activities like frontal-midline theta (4-7 Hz). With aging substantial changes can be observed in the frontal brain areas, presumably leading to age-associated changes in cortical correlates of cognitive functioning. The present study aimed to test whether altered frontal-midline theta dynamics during working memory maintenance may underlie the capacity deficits observed in older adults. 33-channel EEG was recorded in young (18-26 years, N=20) and old (60-71 years, N=16) adults during the retention period of a visual delayed match-to-sample task, in which they had to maintain arrays of 3 or 5 colored squares. An additional visual odd-ball task was used to be able to measure the electrophysiological indices of sustained attentional processes. Old participants showed reduced frontal theta activity during both tasks compared to the young group. In the young memory maintenance-related frontal-midline theta activity was shown to be sensitive both to the increased memory demands and to efficient subsequent memory performance, whereas the old adults showed no such task-related difference in the frontal theta activity. The decrease of frontal-midline theta activity in the old group indicates that cerebral aging may alter the cortical circuitries of theta dynamics, thereby leading to age-associated decline of working memory maintenance function.

  14. Prediction of in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor activity using hierarchical clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, hierarchical clustering classification models were developed to predict in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor (ER) activity. Classification models were developed for binding, agonist, and antagonist in vitro ER activity and for mouse in vivo uterotrophic ER bindi...

  15. Can Gymnastic Teacher Predict Leisure Activity Preference among Children with Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCD)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Hanna-Kassis, Amany; Rosenblum, Sara

    2012-01-01

    The aims of the study were to analyze: (1) whether significant differences exist between children with typical development and children with developmental coordination disorders (DCD) in their preference to participate in leisure activi