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Sample records for activity change predict

  1. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  2. Modeled changes of cerebellar activity in mutant mice are predictive of their learning impairments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badura, Aleksandra; Clopath, Claudia; Schonewille, Martijn; de Zeeuw, Chris I.

    2016-11-01

    Translating neuronal activity to measurable behavioral changes has been a long-standing goal of systems neuroscience. Recently, we have developed a model of phase-reversal learning of the vestibulo-ocular reflex, a well-established, cerebellar-dependent task. The model, comprising both the cerebellar cortex and vestibular nuclei, reproduces behavioral data and accounts for the changes in neural activity during learning in wild type mice. Here, we used our model to predict Purkinje cell spiking as well as behavior before and after learning of five different lines of mutant mice with distinct cell-specific alterations of the cerebellar cortical circuitry. We tested these predictions by obtaining electrophysiological data depicting changes in neuronal spiking. We show that our data is largely consistent with the model predictions for simple spike modulation of Purkinje cells and concomitant behavioral learning in four of the mutants. In addition, our model accurately predicts a shift in simple spike activity in a mutant mouse with a brainstem specific mutation. This combination of electrophysiological and computational techniques opens a possibility of predicting behavioral impairments from neural activity.

  3. Organism activity levels predict marine invertebrate survival during ancient global change extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapham, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    Multistressor global change, the combined influence of ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, poses a serious threat to marine organisms. Experimental studies imply that organisms with higher levels of activity should be more resilient, but testing this prediction and understanding organism vulnerability at a global scale, over evolutionary timescales, and in natural ecosystems remain challenging. The fossil record, which contains multiple extinctions triggered by multistressor global change, is ideally suited for testing hypotheses at broad geographic, taxonomic, and temporal scales. Here, I assess the importance of activity level for survival of well-skeletonized benthic marine invertebrates over a 100-million-year-long interval (Permian to Jurassic periods) containing four global change extinctions, including the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions. More active organisms, based on a semiquantitative score incorporating feeding and motility, were significantly more likely to survive during three of the four extinction events (Guadalupian, end-Permian, and end-Triassic). In contrast, activity was not an important control on survival during nonextinction intervals. Both the end-Permian and end-Triassic mass extinctions also triggered abrupt shifts to increased dominance by more active organisms. Although mean activity gradually returned toward pre-extinction values, the net result was a permanent ratcheting of ecosystem-wide activity to higher levels. Selectivity patterns during ancient global change extinctions confirm the hypothesis that higher activity, a proxy for respiratory physiology, is a fundamental control on survival, although the roles of specific physiological traits (such as extracellular pCO2 or aerobic scope) cannot be distinguished. Modern marine ecosystems are dominated by more active organisms, in part because of selectivity ratcheting during these ancient extinctions, so on average may be less vulnerable to global change

  4. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Guérin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P<.05 but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  5. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  6. Regional brain activity change predicts responsiveness to treatment for stuttering in adults.

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    Ingham, Roger J; Wang, Yuedong; Ingham, Janis C; Bothe, Anne K; Grafton, Scott T

    2013-12-01

    Developmental stuttering is known to be associated with aberrant brain activity, but there is no evidence that this knowledge has benefited stuttering treatment. This study investigated whether brain activity could predict progress during stuttering treatment for 21 dextral adults who stutter (AWS). They received one of two treatment programs that included periodic H2(15)O PET scanning (during oral reading, monologue, and eyes-closed rest conditions). All participants successfully completed an initial treatment phase and then entered a phase designed to transfer treatment gains; 9/21 failed to complete this latter phase. The 12 pass and 9 fail participants were similar on speech and neural system variables before treatment, and similar in speech performance after the initial phase of their treatment. At the end of the initial treatment phase, however, decreased activation within a single region, L. putamen, in all 3 scanning conditions was highly predictive of successful treatment progress.

  7. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  8. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    OpenAIRE

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  9. Does physical activity change predict functional recovery in low back pain? Protocol for a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDonough Suzanne M

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Activity advice and prescription are commonly used in the management of low back pain (LBP. Although there is evidence for advising patients with LBP to remain active, facilitating both recovery and return to work, to date no research has assessed whether objective measurements of free living physical activity (PA can predict outcome, recovery and course of LBP. Methods An observational longitudinal study will investigate PA levels in a cohort of community-dwelling working age adults with acute and sub-acute LBP. Each participant's PA level, functional status, mood, fear avoidance behaviours, and levels of pain, psychological distress and occupational activity will be measured on three occasions during for 1 week periods at baseline, 3 months, and 1 year. Physical activity levels will be measured by self report, RT3 triaxial accelerometer, and activity recall questionnaires. The primary outcome measure of functional recovery will be the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ. Free living PA levels and changes in functional status will be quantified in order to look at predictive relationships between levels and changes in free living PA and functional recovery in a LBP population. Discussion This research will investigate levels and changes in activity levels of an acute LBP cohort and the predictive relationship to LBP recovery. The results will assess whether occupational, psychological and behavioural factors affect the relationship between free living PA and LBP recovery. Results from this research will help to determine the strength of evidence supporting international guidelines that recommend restoration of normal activity in managing LBP. Trial registration [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12609000282280

  10. Possible effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on snow avalanche activity in western Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laute, Katja; Beylich, Achim A.

    2016-04-01

    As snow avalanche formation is mainly governed by meteorological conditions as, e.g., air temperature fluctuations, heavy precipitation and wind conditions, it is likely that the frequency and magnitude of both ordinary and extreme snow avalanche events is modified through the documented effects of current and future climate change. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983-2013 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (IPCC, 2013). Meteorological records of western Norway show the general trend that the last 100 years, especially the last three decades, have been warmer and wetter than the time periods before. However, it is not evident that snow avalanche activity will increase in the near future. Today, the number of studies assessing the impact of climate change on the occurrence and magnitude of snow avalanches is limited. This work focuses on recent and possible future effects of climate change on snow avalanche activity along the western side of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap representing one of the areas with the highest snow avalanche activity in entire Norway. We have analyzed long-term homogenized meteorological data from five meteorological stations in different elevations above sea level, three of them with a long-term record of 120 years (1895-2015). In addition to the statistical analyses of long-term datasets, gained results and insights from a four-year (2009-2012) high-resolution snow avalanche monitoring study conducted in the same study area are incorporated. The statistical analyses of mean monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation sums and mean monthly snow depths showed that there is a trend of increasing air temperatures and precipitation sums whereas no clear trend was found for mean snow depths. Magnitude-frequency analyses conducted for three defined time intervals (120, 90, 60 years) of monthly precipitation sums exhibit an increase of precipitation especially during the last 30 years with the tendency that more precipitation

  11. Differential patterns of amygdala and ventral striatum activation predict gender-specific changes in sexual risk behavior.

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    Victor, Elizabeth C; Sansosti, Alexandra A; Bowman, Hilary C; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2015-06-10

    Although the initiation of sexual behavior is common among adolescents and young adults, some individuals express this behavior in a manner that significantly increases their risk for negative outcomes including sexually transmitted infections. Based on accumulating evidence, we have hypothesized that increased sexual risk behavior reflects, in part, an imbalance between neural circuits mediating approach and avoidance in particular as manifest by relatively increased ventral striatum (VS) activity and relatively decreased amygdala activity. Here, we test our hypothesis using data from seventy 18- to 22-year-old university students participating in the Duke Neurogenetics Study. We found a significant three-way interaction between amygdala activation, VS activation, and gender predicting changes in the number of sexual partners over time. Although relatively increased VS activation predicted greater increases in sexual partners for both men and women, the effect in men was contingent on the presence of relatively decreased amygdala activation and the effect in women was contingent on the presence of relatively increased amygdala activation. These findings suggest unique gender differences in how complex interactions between neural circuit function contributing to approach and avoidance may be expressed as sexual risk behavior in young adults. As such, our findings have the potential to inform the development of novel, gender-specific strategies that may be more effective at curtailing sexual risk behavior.

  12. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular deve...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  13. A conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on ectotherm activity with implications for predicting responses to global change.

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    Gunderson, Alex R; Leal, Manuel

    2015-12-09

    Activity budgets influence the expression of life history traits as well as population dynamics. For ectotherms, a major constraint on activity is environmental temperature. Nonetheless, we currently lack a comprehensive conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on activity, which hinders our ability to rigorously apply activity data to answer ecological and evolutionary questions. Here, we integrate multiple aspects of temperature-dependent activity into a single unified framework that has general applicability. We also provide examples of the implementation of this framework to address fundamental questions in ecology relating to climate change vulnerability and species' distributions using empirical data from a tropical lizard.

  14. Optimization of muscle activity for task-level goals predicts complex changes in limb forces across biomechanical contexts.

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    J Lucas McKay

    Full Text Available Optimality principles have been proposed as a general framework for understanding motor control in animals and humans largely based on their ability to predict general features movement in idealized motor tasks. However, generalizing these concepts past proof-of-principle to understand the neuromechanical transformation from task-level control to detailed execution-level muscle activity and forces during behaviorally-relevant motor tasks has proved difficult. In an unrestrained balance task in cats, we demonstrate that achieving task-level constraints center of mass forces and moments while minimizing control effort predicts detailed patterns of muscle activity and ground reaction forces in an anatomically-realistic musculoskeletal model. Whereas optimization is typically used to resolve redundancy at a single level of the motor hierarchy, we simultaneously resolved redundancy across both muscles and limbs and directly compared predictions to experimental measures across multiple perturbation directions that elicit different intra- and interlimb coordination patterns. Further, although some candidate task-level variables and cost functions generated indistinguishable predictions in a single biomechanical context, we identified a common optimization framework that could predict up to 48 experimental conditions per animal (n = 3 across both perturbation directions and different biomechanical contexts created by altering animals' postural configuration. Predictions were further improved by imposing experimentally-derived muscle synergy constraints, suggesting additional task variables or costs that may be relevant to the neural control of balance. These results suggested that reduced-dimension neural control mechanisms such as muscle synergies can achieve similar kinetics to the optimal solution, but with increased control effort (≈2× compared to individual muscle control. Our results are consistent with the idea that hierarchical, task

  15. Participant Adherence Indicators Predict Changes in Blood Pressure, Anthropometric Measures, and Self-Reported Physical Activity in a Lifestyle Intervention: HUB City Steps

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    Thomson, Jessica L.; Landry, Alicia S.; Zoellner, Jamie M.; Connell, Carol; Madson, Michael B.; Molaison, Elaine Fontenot; Yadrick, Kathy

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this secondary analysis was to evaluate the utility of several participant adherence indicators for predicting changes in clinical, anthropometric, dietary, fitness, and physical activity (PA) outcomes in a lifestyle intervention, HUB City Steps, conducted in a southern, African American cohort in 2010. HUB City Steps was a…

  16. Markov Model Predicts Changes in STH Prevalence during Control Activities Even with a Reduced Amount of Baseline Information.

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    Antonio Montresor

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the reduction in levels of infection during implementation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH control programmes is important to measure their performance and to plan interventions. Markov modelling techniques have been used with some success to predict changes in STH prevalence following treatment in Viet Nam. The model is stationary and to date, the prediction has been obtained by calculating the transition probabilities between the different classes of intensity following the first year of drug distribution and assuming that these remain constant in subsequent years. However, to run this model longitudinal parasitological data (including intensity of infection are required for two consecutive years from at least 200 individuals. Since this amount of data is not often available from STH control programmes, the possible application of the model in control programme is limited. The present study aimed to address this issue by adapting the existing Markov model to allow its application when a more limited amount of data is available and to test the predictive capacities of these simplified models.We analysed data from field studies conducted with different combination of three parameters: (i the frequency of drug administration; (ii the drug distributed; and (iii the target treatment population (entire population or school-aged children only. This analysis allowed us to define 10 sets of standard transition probabilities to be used to predict prevalence changes when only baseline data are available (simplified model 1. We also formulated three equations (one for each STH parasite to calculate the predicted prevalence of the different classes of intensity from the total prevalence. These equations allowed us to design a simplified model (SM2 to obtain predictions when the classes of intensity at baseline were not known. To evaluate the performance of the simplified models, we collected data from the scientific literature on changes in

  17. Using constructs of the transtheoretical model to predict classes of change in regular physical activity: a multi-ethnic longitudinal cohort study.

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    Dishman, Rod K; Vandenberg, Robert J; Motl, Robert W; Nigg, Claudio R

    2010-10-01

    Explaining variation in meeting recommended levels of physical activity across time is important for the design of effective public health interventions. To model longitudinal change in constructs of the Transtheoretical Model and test their hypothesized relations with change in meeting the Healthy People 2010 guidelines for regular participation in moderate or vigorous physical activity, a cohort (N = 497) from a random, multi-ethnic sample of 700 adults living in Hawaii was assessed at 6-month intervals three or more times for 2 years. Latent class growth modeling was used to classify people according to their initial levels and trajectories of change in the transtheoretical variables and separately according to whether they met the physical activity guideline each time. Relations of the variables and their change with classes of meeting the guideline were then tested using multinomial logistic regression. Despite declines or no change in mean scores for all transtheoretical variables except self-efficacy, participants who maintained or attained the physical activity guideline were more likely to retain higher scores across the 2 years of observation. The usefulness of transtheoretical constructs for predicting maintenance of, or increases in, public health levels of physical activity was generally supported. These longitudinal results support earlier cross-sectional findings which indicate that, contrary to theory, people appear to use both experiential and behavioral processes while they attempt to increase or maintain their physical activity.

  18. A model for aryl hydrocarbon receptor-activated gene expression shows potency and efficacy changes and predicts squelching due to competition for transcription co-activators.

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    Ted W Simon

    Full Text Available A stochastic model of nuclear receptor-mediated transcription was developed based on activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD and subsequent binding the activated AHR to xenobiotic response elements (XREs on DNA. The model was based on effects observed in cells lines commonly used as in vitro experimental systems. Following ligand binding, the AHR moves into the cell nucleus and forms a heterodimer with the aryl hydrocarbon nuclear translocator (ARNT. In the model, a requirement for binding to DNA is that a generic coregulatory protein is subsequently bound to the AHR-ARNT dimer. Varying the amount of coregulator available within the nucleus altered both the potency and efficacy of TCDD for inducing for transcription of CYP1A1 mRNA, a commonly used marker for activation of the AHR. Lowering the amount of available cofactor slightly increased the EC50 for the transcriptional response without changing the efficacy or maximal response. Further reduction in the amount of cofactor reduced the efficacy and produced non-monotonic dose-response curves (NMDRCs at higher ligand concentrations. The shapes of these NMDRCs were reminiscent of the phenomenon of squelching. Resource limitations for transcriptional machinery are becoming apparent in eukaryotic cells. Within single cells, nuclear receptor-mediated gene expression appears to be a stochastic process; however, intercellular communication and other aspects of tissue coordination may represent a compensatory process to maintain an organism's ability to respond on a phenotypic level to various stimuli within an inconstant environment.

  19. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  20. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  1. Participant adherence indicatiors predict changes in blood pressure, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity in a lifestyle intervention: HUB City Steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpose. To evaluate several adherence indicators, created using 2 measures, separately and in combination, for predicting health outcome changes. Design. Non-experimental with pre-post measures. Setting. Mid-sized city in southern region of United States. Subjects. 269 primarily African-America...

  2. Predicting Change in Adolescent Adjustment from Change in Marital Problems

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    Cui, Ming; Conger, Rand D.; Lorenz, Frederick O.

    2005-01-01

    The present prospective, longitudinal study of 451 adolescents and their parents extends earlier research by investigating whether change in marital problems predicts change in adolescent adjustment, after controlling for other marital problems and socioeconomic status. Latent growth curves over a period of 5 years were used, and the results…

  3. Using Constructs of the Transtheoretical Model to Predict Classes of Change in Regular Physical Activity: A Multi-Ethnic Longitudinal Cohort Study

    OpenAIRE

    Dishman, Rod K.; Vandenberg, Robert J; Motl, Robert W.; Nigg, Claudio R

    2010-01-01

    Explaining variation in meeting recommended levels of physical activity across time is important for the design of effective public health interventions. To model longitudinal change in constructs of the Transtheoretical Model and test their hypothesized relations with change in meeting the Healthy People 2010 guidelines for regular participation in moderate or vigorous physical activity, a cohort (N=497) from a random, multi-ethnic sample of 700 adults living in Hawaii was assessed at 6-mont...

  4. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  5. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

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    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  6. Human activity recognition and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a unique view of human activity recognition, especially fine-grained human activity structure learning, human-interaction recognition, RGB-D data based action recognition, temporal decomposition, and causality learning in unconstrained human activity videos. The techniques discussed give readers tools that provide a significant improvement over existing methodologies of video content understanding by taking advantage of activity recognition. It links multiple popular research fields in computer vision, machine learning, human-centered computing, human-computer interaction, image classification, and pattern recognition. In addition, the book includes several key chapters covering multiple emerging topics in the field. Contributed by top experts and practitioners, the chapters present key topics from different angles and blend both methodology and application, composing a solid overview of the human activity recognition techniques. .

  7. Response to mTOR inhibition: activity of eIF4E predicts sensitivity in cell lines and acquired changes in eIF4E regulation in breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartlett John MS

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inhibitors of the kinase mTOR, such as rapamycin and everolimus, have been used as cancer therapeutics with limited success since some tumours are resistant. Efforts to establish predictive markers to allow selection of patients with tumours likely to respond have centred on determining phosphorylation states of mTOR or its targets 4E-BP1 and S6K in cancer cells. In an alternative approach we estimated eIF4E activity, a key effector of mTOR function, and tested the hypothesis that eIF4E activity predicts sensitivity to mTOR inhibition in cell lines and in breast tumours. Results We found a greater than three fold difference in sensitivity of representative colon, lung and breast cell lines to rapamycin. Using an assay to quantify influences of eIF4E on the translational efficiency specified by structured 5'UTRs, we showed that this estimate of eIF4E activity was a significant predictor of rapamycin sensitivity, with higher eIF4E activities indicative of enhanced sensitivity. Surprisingly, non-transformed cell lines were not less sensitive to rapamycin and did not have lower eIF4E activities than cancer lines, suggesting the mTOR/4E-BP1/eIF4E axis is deregulated in these non-transformed cells. In the context of clinical breast cancers, we estimated eIF4E activity by analysing expression of eIF4E and its functional regulators within tumour cells and combining these scores to reflect inhibitory and activating influences on eIF4E. Estimates of eIF4E activity in cancer biopsies taken at diagnosis did not predict sensitivity to 11-14 days of pre-operative everolimus treatment, as assessed by change in tumour cell proliferation from diagnosis to surgical excision. However, higher pre-treatment eIF4E activity was significantly associated with dramatic post-treatment changes in expression of eIF4E and 4E-binding proteins, suggesting that eIF4E is further deregulated in these tumours in response to mTOR inhibition. Conclusions

  8. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  9. Activity Prediction: A Twitter-based Exploration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.

    2012-01-01

    Social media platforms allow users to share their messages with everyone else. In microblogs, e.g., Twitter, people mostly report on what they did, they talk about current activities, and mention things they plan to do in the near future. In this paper, we propose the task of activity prediction, th

  10. Why looking at the whole hippocampus is not enough – a critical role for anteroposterior axis, subfield and activation analyses to enhance predictive value of hippocampal changes for Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra eMaruszak

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The hippocampus is one of the earliest affected brain regions in Alzheimer´s disease (AD and its dysfunction is believed to underlie the core feature of the disease- memory impairment. Given that hippocampal volume is one of the best AD biomarkers, our review focuses on distinct subfields within the hippocampus, pinpointing regions that might enhance the predictive value of current diagnostic methods. Our review presents how changes in hippocampal volume, shape, symmetry and activation are reflected by cognitive impairment and how they are linked with neurogenesis alterations. Moreover, we revisit the functional differentiation along the anteroposterior longitudinal axis of the hippocampus and discuss its relevance for AD diagnosis. Finally, we indicate that apart from hippocampal subfield volumetry, the characteristic pattern of hippocampal hyperactivation associated with seizures and neurogenesis changes is another promising candidate for an early AD biomarker that could become also a target for early interventions.

  11. Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumazawa, T.; Ogata, Y.; Kimura, Y.; Maeda, K.; Kobayashi, A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed several times since 1980s monitored by strain-meters located nearby. Major swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic and preseismic significant sizes of a volumetric strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013), and have found the followings. The modified volumetric strain change data by removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps have much higher cross-correlations to the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate change of the ETAS, and further the strain changes precede the background seismicity by lag of about a day. This relation suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms in this region. References Earthquake Research Committee (2010). Report on "Prediction of seismic activity in the Izu Eastern Region" (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku/izu/index.htm Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS model, J Geophys.Res. 118, 6165-6182.

  12. Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jokinen, Hanna; Schmidt, Reinhold; Ropele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic...... resonance imaging (MRI) findings....

  13. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  14. Predicting the Expected Rate of Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴梦想

    2016-01-01

    Since December 2013,Ebola outbreak in west Africa again, and the year's disease was the most serious Ebola serious, which arouse the global attention. We are consider that among the countries where outbreak Ebola disease, Nigeria has the most serious problem. So we choose Nigeria as our object, establish differential equation and take the initial value to calculate, expecting rate of change in the number of Ebola infections for the country from 2006 to 2015, in the absence of any additional drugs. Clearly giving the inspecting time, we can get the change of the number of healthy people and the patients.

  15. "Patent Activity and Technical Change"

    OpenAIRE

    Robert L. Basmann; Michael, McAleer; Daniel, Slottje

    2003-01-01

    As creations of the mind, intellectual property includes industrial property and copyrights. This paper presents an aggregate production function of the generalized Fechner-Thurstone (GFT) form to analyze the impact of an important component of intellectual industrial property, namely patent activity, on technical change in the USA for the period 1947-1981. Patents should alter isoquant maps, and measuring their elasticities is both intuitively and empirically appealing. We define a technolog...

  16. Prediction control of active power filters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王莉娜; 罗安

    2003-01-01

    A prediction method to obtain harmonic reference for active power filter is presented. It is a new use ofthe adaptive predictive filter based on FIR. The delay inherent in digital controller is successfully compensated by u-sing the proposed method, and the computing load is not very large compared with the conventional method. Moreo-ver, no additional hardware is needed. Its DSP-based realization is also presented, which is characterized by time-va-riant rate sampling, quasi synchronous sampling, and synchronous operation among the line frequency, PWM gener-ating and sampling in A/D unit. Synchronous operation releases the limitation on PWM modulation ratio and guar-antees that the electrical noises resulting from the switching operation of IGBTs do not interfere with the sampledcurrent. The simulation and experimental results verify the satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

  17. CERAPP: Collaborative estrogen receptor activity prediction project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER......). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. oBjectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project...

  18. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  19. Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor

    OpenAIRE

    Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial str...

  20. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblas-Reyes, F J; Andreu-Burillo, I; Chikamoto, Y; García-Serrano, J; Guemas, V; Kimoto, M; Mochizuki, T; Rodrigues, L R L; van Oldenborgh, G J

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  1. Supporting change processes in design: Complexity, prediction and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert, Claudia M. [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: cme26@cam.ac.uk; Keller, Rene [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: rk313@cam.ac.uk; Earl, Chris [Open University, Department of Design and Innovation, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: C.F.Earl@open.ac.uk; Clarkson, P. John [Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: pjc10@cam.ac.uk

    2006-12-15

    Change to existing products is fundamental to design processes. New products are often designed through change or modification to existing products. Specific parts or subsystems are changed to similar ones whilst others are directly reused. Design by modification applies particularly to safety critical products where the reuse of existing working parts and subsystems can reduce cost and risk. However change is rarely a matter of just reusing or modifying parts. Changing one part can propagate through the entire design leading to costly rework or jeopardising the integrity of the whole product. This paper characterises product change based on studies in the aerospace and automotive industry and introduces tools to aid designers in understanding the potential effects of change. Two ways of supporting designers are described: probabilistic prediction of the effects of change and visualisation of change propagation through product connectivities. Change propagation has uncertainties which are amplified by the choices designers make in practice as they implement change. Change prediction and visualisation is discussed with reference to complexity in three areas of product development: the structural backcloth of connectivities in the existing product (and its processes), the descriptions of the product used in design and the actions taken to carry out changes.

  2. Changes in Pilot Behavior with Predictive System Status Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1998-01-01

    Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, changes in pilot behavior associated with using this predictive information have not been ascertained. The study described here quantified these changes using three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and three initial time intervals until a parameter alert range was reached (ITIs) (1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes). With predictive information, subjects accomplished most of their tasks before an alert occurred. Subjects organized the time they did their tasks by locus-of-control with no predictive information and for the 1-minute ITI, and by aviatenavigate-communicate for the time for a parameter to reach an alert range and the 15-minute conditions. Overall, predictive information and the longer ITIs moved subjects to performing tasks before the alert actually occurred and had them more mission oriented as indicated by their tasks grouping of aviate-navigate-communicate.

  3. Platelet serotonin transporter function predicts default-mode network activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Scharinger

    Full Text Available The serotonin transporter (5-HTT is abundantly expressed in humans by the serotonin transporter gene SLC6A4 and removes serotonin (5-HT from extracellular space. A blood-brain relationship between platelet and synaptosomal 5-HT reuptake has been suggested, but it is unknown today, if platelet 5-HT uptake can predict neural activation of human brain networks that are known to be under serotonergic influence.A functional magnetic resonance study was performed in 48 healthy subjects and maximal 5-HT uptake velocity (Vmax was assessed in blood platelets. We used a mixed-effects multilevel analysis technique (MEMA to test for linear relationships between whole-brain, blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD activity and platelet Vmax.The present study demonstrates that increases in platelet Vmax significantly predict default-mode network (DMN suppression in healthy subjects independent of genetic variation within SLC6A4. Furthermore, functional connectivity analyses indicate that platelet Vmax is related to global DMN activation and not intrinsic DMN connectivity.This study provides evidence that platelet Vmax predicts global DMN activation changes in healthy subjects. Given previous reports on platelet-synaptosomal Vmax coupling, results further suggest an important role of neuronal 5-HT reuptake in DMN regulation.

  4. Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stillman, R A; Wood, K A; Gilkerson, Whelan; Elkinton, E; Black, J. M.; Ward, David H.; Petrie, M.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate, food abundance and disturbance from humans threaten the ability of species to successfully use stopover sites and migrate between non-breeding and breeding areas. To devise successful conservation strategies for migratory species we need to be able to predict how such changes will affect both individuals and populations. Such predictions should ideally be process-based, focusing on the mechanisms through which changes alter individual physiological state and behavior. In this study we use a process-based model to evaluate how Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) foraging on common eelgrass (Zostera marina) at a stopover site (Humboldt Bay, USA), may be affected by changes in sea level, food abundance and disturbance. The model is individual-based, with empirically based parameters, and incorporates the immigration of birds into the site, tidal changes in availability of eelgrass, seasonal and depth-related changes in eelgrass biomass, foraging behavior and energetics of the birds, and their mass-dependent decisions to emigrate. The model is validated by comparing predictions to observations across a range of system properties including the time birds spent foraging, probability of birds emigrating, mean stopover duration, peak bird numbers, rates of mass gain and distribution of birds within the site: all 11 predictions were within 35% of the observed value, and 8 within 20%. The model predicted that the eelgrass within the site could potentially support up to five times as many birds as currently use the site. Future predictions indicated that the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were relatively insensitive to sea level rise over the next 100 years, primarily because eelgrass habitat could redistribute shoreward into intertidal mudflats within the site to compensate for higher sea levels. In contrast, the rate of mass gain and mean stopover duration were sensitive to changes in total eelgrass biomass and the percentage of time

  5. Predicting coastal morphological changes with empirical orthogonal functionmethod

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Alvarez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy of prediction when using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF method, this paper describes a novel approach for two-dimensional (2D EOF analysis based on extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes. The approach was investigated with data obtained from a process-based numerical model, COAST2D, which was applied to an idealized study site with a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The progressive behavior of the spatial and temporal EOF components, related to bathymetric changes over a training period, was demonstrated, and EOF components were extrapolated with combined linear and exponential functions for long-term prediction. The extrapolated EOF components were then used to reconstruct bathymetric changes. The comparison of the reconstructed bathymetric changes with the modeled results from the COAST2D model illustrates that the presented approach can be effective for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes, and extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components yields better results than extrapolating only the temporal EOF component.

  6. Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hector Galbraith

    Full Text Available Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90% taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

  7. Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

    2014-01-01

    Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

  8. The ACTIVE cognitive training trial and predicted medical expenditures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith David M

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health care expenditures for older adults are disproportionately high and increasing at both the individual and population levels. We evaluated the effects of the three cognitive training interventions (memory, reasoning, or speed of processing in the ACTIVE study on changes in predicted medical care expenditures. Methods ACTIVE was a multisite randomized controlled trial of older adults (≥ 65. Five-year follow-up data were available for 1,804 of the 2,802 participants. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for potential attrition bias. Changes in predicted annualmedical expenditures were calculated at the first and fifth annual follow-up assessments using a new method for translating functional status scores. Multiple linear regression methods were used in this cost-offset analysis. Results At one and five years post-training, annual predicted expenditures declinedby $223 (p = .024 and $128 (p = .309, respectively, in the speed of processing treatment group, but there were no statistically significant changes in the memory or reasoning treatment groups compared to the no-contact control group at either period. Statistical adjustment for age, race, education, MMSE scores, ADL and IADL performance scores, EPT scores, chronic condition counts, and the SF-36 PCS and MCS scores at baseline did not alter the one-year ($244; p = .012 or five-year ($143; p = .250 expenditure declines in the speed of processing treatment group. Conclusion The speed of processing intervention significantly reduced subsequent annual predicted medical care expenditures at the one-year post-baseline comparison, but annual savings were no longer statistically significant at the five-year post-baseline comparison.

  9. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2007-04-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  10. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  11. Social change and physical activity

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Lars-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    Today’s Western society is undergoing rapid change, and the speed of this process of change seems to be increasing. One of the major social changes is the gradual changeover from daily lives that contained high levels of physical effort to lives that are increasingly sedentary. A sedentary lifestyle is not without its problems. Several common illnesses are related to physical inactivity. Athletics, exercise, outdoor life and trend sports must be regarded as expressions of lifestyle and not as...

  12. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function.

  13. Improving active space telescope wavefront control using predictive thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersh-Range, Jessica; Perrin, Marshall D.

    2015-01-01

    Active control algorithms for space telescopes are less mature than those for large ground telescopes due to differences in the wavefront control problems. Active wavefront control for space telescopes at L2, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), requires weighing control costs against the benefits of correcting wavefront perturbations that are a predictable byproduct of the observing schedule, which is known and determined in advance. To improve the control algorithms for these telescopes, we have developed a model that calculates the temperature and wavefront evolution during a hypothetical mission, assuming the dominant wavefront perturbations are due to changes in the spacecraft attitude with respect to the sun. Using this model, we show that the wavefront can be controlled passively by introducing scheduling constraints that limit the allowable attitudes for an observation based on the observation duration and the mean telescope temperature. We also describe the implementation of a predictive controller designed to prevent the wavefront error (WFE) from exceeding a desired threshold. This controller outperforms simpler algorithms even with substantial model error, achieving a lower WFE without requiring significantly more corrections. Consequently, predictive wavefront control based on known spacecraft attitude plans is a promising approach for JWST and other future active space observatories.

  14. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

    2014-01-01

    (China, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia). The results show how sudden events and gradual changes in underlying drivers caused rapid, surprising and widespread land-system changes, including shifts to different regimes in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, whereas land systems in Laos remained stable in the study...... and livelihoods. This implies that long-term initiatives such as REDD must account for the substantial uncertainties inherent in future predictions of land-system change. Learning from past regime shifts and identifying early warning signs for future regime shifts are important challenges for land-system science....

  15. Model of local temperature changes in brain upon functional activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Christopher M; Smith, Michael B; Turner, Robert

    2004-12-01

    Experimental results for changes in brain temperature during functional activation show large variations. It is, therefore, desirable to develop a careful numerical model for such changes. Here, a three-dimensional model of temperature in the human head using the bioheat equation, which includes effects of metabolism, perfusion, and thermal conduction, is employed to examine potential temperature changes due to functional activation in brain. It is found that, depending on location in brain and corresponding baseline temperature relative to blood temperature, temperature may increase or decrease on activation and concomitant increases in perfusion and rate of metabolism. Changes in perfusion are generally seen to have a greater effect on temperature than are changes in metabolism, and hence active brain is predicted to approach blood temperature from its initial temperature. All calculated changes in temperature for reasonable physiological parameters have magnitudes <0.12 degrees C and are well within the range reported in recent experimental studies involving human subjects.

  16. Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J.; Bichet, Coraline; Julliard, Romain; Garnier, Stéphane; Lendvai, Ádám Z.; Chastel, Olivier; Sorci, Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites. PMID:23350033

  17. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  18. Change in avian abundance predicted from regional forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twedt, Daniel J.; Tirpak, John M.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Thompson, Frank R.; Uihlein, William B.; Fitzgerald, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    An inability to predict population response to future habitat projections is a shortcoming in bird conservation planning. We sought to predict avian response to projections of future forest conditions that were developed from nationwide forest surveys within the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. To accomplish this, we evaluated the historical relationship between silvicolous bird populations and FIA-derived forest conditions within 25 ecoregions that comprise the southeastern United States. We aggregated forest area by forest ownership, forest type, and tree size-class categories in county-based ecoregions for 5 time periods spanning 1963-2008. We assessed the relationship of forest data with contemporaneous indices of abundance for 24 silvicolous bird species that were obtained from Breeding Bird Surveys. Relationships between bird abundance and forest inventory data for 18 species were deemed sufficient as predictive models. We used these empirically derived relationships between regional forest conditions and bird populations to predict relative changes in abundance of these species within ecoregions that are anticipated to coincide with projected changes in forest variables through 2040. Predicted abundances of these 18 species are expected to remain relatively stable in over a quarter (27%) of the ecoregions. However, change in forest area and redistribution of forest types will likely result in changed abundance of some species within many ecosystems. For example, abundances of 11 species, including pine warbler (Dendroica pinus), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), and chuckwills- widow (Caprimulgus carolinensis), are projected to increase within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will decrease. For 6 other species, such as blue-winged warbler (Vermivora pinus), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), we projected abundances will decrease within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will

  19. Spontaneous brain activity predicts learning ability of foreign sounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Sanjuán, Ana; González, Julio; Palomar-García, María-Ángeles; Rodríguez-Pujadas, Aina; Sebastián-Gallés, Núria; Deco, Gustavo; Ávila, César

    2013-05-29

    Can learning capacity of the human brain be predicted from initial spontaneous functional connectivity (FC) between brain areas involved in a task? We combined task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) before and after training with a Hindi dental-retroflex nonnative contrast. Previous fMRI results were replicated, demonstrating that this learning recruited the left insula/frontal operculum and the left superior parietal lobe, among other areas of the brain. Crucially, resting-state FC (rs-FC) between these two areas at pretraining predicted individual differences in learning outcomes after distributed (Experiment 1) and intensive training (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this rs-FC was reduced at posttraining, a change that may also account for learning. Finally, resting-state network analyses showed that the mechanism underlying this reduction of rs-FC was mainly a transfer in intrinsic activity of the left frontal operculum/anterior insula from the left frontoparietal network to the salience network. Thus, rs-FC may contribute to predict learning ability and to understand how learning modifies the functioning of the brain. The discovery of this correspondence between initial spontaneous brain activity in task-related areas and posttraining performance opens new avenues to find predictors of learning capacities in the brain using task-related fMRI and rs-fMRI combined.

  20. Climate change and predicted trend of fungal keratitis in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad-Hussein, A; El-Mofty, H M; Hassanien, M A

    2011-06-01

    Rising rates of invasive fungal infections may be linked to global climate change. A study was made of the trend of ophthalmic fungal corneal keratitis in the greater Cairo area of Egypt and its association with climate records during the same period. Data on diagnosed cases of fungal keratitis were collected from records of ophthalmic departments of Cairo University hospital and atmospheric temperature and humidity for the greater Cairo area were obtained from online records. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in the relative frequency of keratomycosis during 1997-2007. The rise correlated significantly with rises n min,mum temperature and the maximum atmospheric humidity in the greater Cairo area over the same period (after exclusion of the effect of the maximum atmos pheric temperature). The predicted increase in keratomycosis up to the year 2030 corresponds to predicted increases in CO2 emissions and surface temperature from climate change models for Egypt.

  1. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  2. Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that these universal and time-invariant organizing principles can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. The organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  3. SIFT: predicting amino acid changes that affect protein function

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Pauline C.; Henikoff, Steven

    2003-01-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) studies and random mutagenesis projects identify amino acid substitutions in protein-coding regions. Each substitution has the potential to affect protein function. SIFT (Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant) is a program that predicts whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function so that users can prioritize substitutions for further study. We have shown that SIFT can distinguish between functionally neutral and deleterious amino acid changes in...

  4. Recent and Past Musical Activity Predicts Cognitive Aging Variability: Direct Comparison with Leisure Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda eHanna-Pladdy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age . These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to nonmusical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study examined the type of leisure activity (musical versus other as well as the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (> 10 years and nonmusicians (ages 59-80 were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and life-style activities (AAP. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to explain performance variance in musicians. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal immediate recall, judgment of line orientation (JLO, and Letter Number Sequencing (LNS, but not the AAP. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted JLO in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (< 9 years predicted enhanced LNS in musicians, while analyses for AAP, verbal recall and fluency were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not leisure activity, predicted variability across verbal and visuospatial domains in aging. Early musical acquisition predicted auditory

  5. Caregiver Confidence: Does It Predict Changes in Disability among Elderly Home Care Recipients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lydia W.; McLaughlin, Sara J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the study: The primary aim of this investigation was to determine whether caregiver confidence in their care recipients' functional capabilities predicts changes in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly home care recipients. A secondary aim was to explore how caregiver confidence and care recipient functional…

  6. Fine-grained code changes and bugs: Improving bug prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Giger, Emanuel

    2012-01-01

    Software development and, in particular, software maintenance are time consuming and require detailed knowledge of the structure and the past development activities of a software system. Limited resources and time constraints make the situation even more difficult. Therefore, a significant amount of research effort has been dedicated to learning software prediction models that allow project members to allocate and spend the limited resources efficiently on the (most) critical parts of their s...

  7. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils...

  8. Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Ehret

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Throughout its historical development, hydrology as an engineering discipline and earth science has relied strongly on the assumption of long-term stationary boundary conditions and system configurations, which allowed for simplified and sectoral descriptions of the dynamics of hydrological systems. However, in the face of rapid and extensive global changes (of climate, land use etc. which affect all parts of the hydrological cycle, the general validity of this assumption appears doubtful. Likewise, so does the application of hydrological concepts based on stationarity to questions of hydrological change. The reason is that transient system behaviours often develop through feedbacks between the system constituents, and with the environment, generating effects that could often be neglected under stationary conditions. In this context, the aim of this paper is to present and discuss paradigms and theories potentially helpful to advancing hydrology towards the goal of understanding and predicting hydrological systems under change. For the sake of brevity we focus on catchment hydrology. We begin with a discussion of the general nature of explanation in hydrology and briefly review the history of catchment hydrology. We then propose and discuss several perspectives on catchments: as complex dynamical systems, self-organizing systems, co-evolving systems and open dissipative thermodynamic systems. We discuss the benefits of comparative hydrology and of taking an information-theoretic view of catchments, including the flow of information from data to models to predictions. In summary, we suggest that the combination of these closely related perspectives can serve as a paradigm for the further development of catchment hydrology to address predictions under change.

  9. Predicting future changes in climate and its impact on change in land use: a case study of Cauvery Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyil, Rohith P.; Dhanalakshmi, S.; Goyal, Pramila

    2016-05-01

    The study involves the climate change prediction and its effects over a local sub grid scale of smaller area in Cauvery basin. The consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic activities are reflected in global as well as regional climate in terms of changes in key climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed. The key objectives of the study are to define statistical relationships between different climate parameters, to estimate the sensitivities of climate variables to future climate scenarios by integrating with GIS and to predict the land use/ land cover change under the climate change scenarios. The historical data set was analyzed to predict the climate change and its impact on land use/land cover (LULC) is observed by correlating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for two different times for the same area. It is so evident that due to the rise in temperature there is a considerable change in the land use affecting the vegetation index; increased temperature results in very low NDVI values or vegetation abundance.

  10. Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

    2006-01-01

    Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

  11. SIFT: Predicting amino acid changes that affect protein function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Pauline C; Henikoff, Steven

    2003-07-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) studies and random mutagenesis projects identify amino acid substitutions in protein-coding regions. Each substitution has the potential to affect protein function. SIFT (Sorting Intolerant From Tolerant) is a program that predicts whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function so that users can prioritize substitutions for further study. We have shown that SIFT can distinguish between functionally neutral and deleterious amino acid changes in mutagenesis studies and on human polymorphisms. SIFT is available at http://blocks.fhcrc.org/sift/SIFT.html.

  12. Decreased dopamine activity predicts relapse in methamphetamine abusers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang G. J.; Wang, G.-J.; Smith, L.; Volkow, N.D.; Telang, F.; Logan, J.; Tomasi, D.; Wong, C.T.; Hoffman, W.; Jayne, M.; Alia-Klein, N.; Thanos, P.; Fowler, J.S.

    2011-01-20

    Studies in methamphetamine (METH) abusers showed that the decreases in brain dopamine (DA) function might recover with protracted detoxification. However, the extent to which striatal DA function in METH predicts recovery has not been evaluated. Here we assessed whether striatal DA activity in METH abusers is associated with clinical outcomes. Brain DA D2 receptor (D2R) availability was measured with positron emission tomography and [{sup 11}C]raclopride in 16 METH abusers, both after placebo and after challenge with 60 mg oral methylphenidate (MPH) (to measure DA release) to assess whether it predicted clinical outcomes. For this purpose, METH abusers were tested within 6 months of last METH use and then followed up for 9 months of abstinence. In parallel, 15 healthy controls were tested. METH abusers had lower D2R availability in caudate than in controls. Both METH abusers and controls showed decreased striatal D2R availability after MPH and these decreases were smaller in METH than in controls in left putamen. The six METH abusers who relapsed during the follow-up period had lower D2R availability in dorsal striatum than in controls, and had no D2R changes after MPH challenge. The 10 METH abusers who completed detoxification did not differ from controls neither in striatal D2R availability nor in MPH-induced striatal DA changes. These results provide preliminary evidence that low striatal DA function in METH abusers is associated with a greater likelihood of relapse during treatment. Detection of the extent of DA dysfunction may be helpful in predicting therapeutic outcomes.

  13. An epigenetic signature in peripheral blood predicts active ovarian cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew E Teschendorff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that DNA methylation (DNAm markers in peripheral blood may hold promise as diagnostic or early detection/risk markers for epithelial cancers. However, to date no study has evaluated the diagnostic and predictive potential of such markers in a large case control cohort and on a genome-wide basis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By performing genome-wide DNAm profiling of a large ovarian cancer case control cohort, we here demonstrate that active ovarian cancer has a significant impact on the DNAm pattern in peripheral blood. Specifically, by measuring the methylation levels of over 27,000 CpGs in blood cells from 148 healthy individuals and 113 age-matched pre-treatment ovarian cancer cases, we derive a DNAm signature that can predict the presence of active ovarian cancer in blind test sets with an AUC of 0.8 (95% CI (0.74-0.87. We further validate our findings in another independent set of 122 post-treatment cases (AUC = 0.76 (0.72-0.81. In addition, we provide evidence for a significant number of candidate risk or early detection markers for ovarian cancer. Furthermore, by comparing the pattern of methylation with gene expression data from major blood cell types, we here demonstrate that age and cancer elicit common changes in the composition of peripheral blood, with a myeloid skewing that increases with age and which is further aggravated in the presence of ovarian cancer. Finally, we show that most cancer and age associated methylation variability is found at CpGs located outside of CpG islands. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results underscore the potential of DNAm profiling in peripheral blood as a tool for detection or risk-prediction of epithelial cancers, and warrants further in-depth and higher CpG coverage studies to further elucidate this role.

  14. Predictive Analysis of Landslide Activity Using Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markuzon, N.; Regan, J.; Slesnick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Landslides are historically one of the most damaging geohazard phenomena in terms of death tolls and socio-economic losses. Therefore, understanding the underlying causes of landslides and how environmental phenomena affect their frequency and severity is of critical importance. Of specific importance for mitigating future damage is increasing our understanding of how climate change will affect landslide severity, occurrence rates, and damage. We are developing data driven models aimed at predicting landslide activity. The models learn multi-dimensional weather and geophysical patterns associated with historical landslides and estimate location-dependent probabilities for landslides under current or future weather and geophysical conditions. Our approach uses machine learning algorithms capable of determining non-linear associations between dependent variables and landslide occurrence without requiring detailed knowledge of geomorphology. Our primary goal in year one of the project is to evaluate the predictive capabilities of data mining models in application to landslide activity, and to analyze if the approach will discover previously unknown variables and/or relationships important to landslide occurrence, frequency or severity. The models include remote sensing and ground-based data, including weather, landcover, slope, elevation and drainage information as well as urbanization data. The historical landslide dataset we used to build our preliminary models was compiled from City of Seattle landslide files, United States Geological Survey reports, newspaper articles, and a verified subset of the Seattle Landslide Database that consists of all reported landslides within Seattle, WA, between 1948 and 1999. Most of the landslides analyzed to-date are shallow. Using statistical analysis and unsupervised clustering methods we have thus far identified subsets of weather conditions that lead to a significantly higher landslide probability, and have developed

  15. Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food......, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine...... can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been...

  16. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman O Oloritun

    Full Text Available Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC and R(2. This study found a model that explains 68% (p<0.0001 of the variation in change in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as

  17. Predicting the unpredictable: Critical analysis and practical implications of predictive anticipatory activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia eMossbridge

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A recent meta-analysis of experiments from seven independent laboratories (n=26 published since 1978 indicates that the human body can apparently detect randomly delivered stimuli occurring 1-10 seconds in the future (Mossbridge, Tressoldi, & Utts, 2012. The key observation in these studies is that human physiology appears to be able to distinguish between unpredictable dichotomous future stimuli, such as emotional vs. neutral images or sound vs. silence. This phenomenon has been called presentiment (as in feeling the future. In this paper we call it predictive anticipatory activity or PAA. The phenomenon is predictive because it can distinguish between upcoming stimuli; it is anticipatory because the physiological changes occur before a future event; and it is an activity because it involves changes in the cardiopulmonary, skin, and/or nervous systems. PAA is an unconscious phenomenon that seems to be a time-reversed reflection of the usual physiological response to a stimulus. It appears to resemble precognition (consciously knowing something is going to happen before it does, but PAA specifically refers to unconscious physiological reactions as opposed to conscious premonitions. Though it is possible that PAA underlies the conscious experience of precognition, experiments testing this idea have not produced clear results. The first part of this paper reviews the evidence for PAA and examines the two most difficult challenges for obtaining valid evidence for it: expectation bias and multiple analyses. The second part speculates on possible mechanisms and the theoretical implications of PAA for understanding physiology and consciousness. The third part examines potential practical applications.

  18. Diversity experiences predict changes in attitudes toward affirmative action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aberson, Christopher L

    2007-10-01

    The current study examined the role of diversity experiences in promoting changes in attitudes toward affirmative action (AA). Using longitudinal data from a survey of over 1000 college students at admission and in their fourth year, results demonstrated that participation in diversity-related campus activities related to positive changes in attitudes toward affirmative action. This result was consistent across samples of White, African American, and Asian American students. Positive changes in attitudes persisted despite statistical controls for established predictors of attitudes toward AA such as merit and prevalence of discrimination beliefs, and individual-level characteristics such as experiences of discrimination and political liberalism. I discuss the relevance of this finding to the AA literature and to changing attitudes toward AA.

  19. Predicting mining activity with parallel genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaie, S.; Leigh, R.; Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.; Beyer, H.G.; O'Reilly, U.M.; Banzhaf, Arnold D.; Blum, W.; Bonabeau, C.; Cantu-Paz, E.W.; ,; ,

    2005-01-01

    We explore several different techniques in our quest to improve the overall model performance of a genetic algorithm calibrated probabilistic cellular automata. We use the Kappa statistic to measure correlation between ground truth data and data predicted by the model. Within the genetic algorithm, we introduce a new evaluation function sensitive to spatial correctness and we explore the idea of evolving different rule parameters for different subregions of the land. We reduce the time required to run a simulation from 6 hours to 10 minutes by parallelizing the code and employing a 10-node cluster. Our empirical results suggest that using the spatially sensitive evaluation function does indeed improve the performance of the model and our preliminary results also show that evolving different rule parameters for different regions tends to improve overall model performance. Copyright 2005 ACM.

  20. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutti, R.

    2009-12-01

    As computers get faster and our understanding of the climate system improves, climate models to predict the future are getting more complex by including more and more processes, and they are run at higher and higher resolution to resolve more of the small scale processes. As a result, some of the simulated features and structures, e.g. ocean eddies or tropical cyclones look surprisingly real. But are these deceptive? A pattern can look perfectly real but be in the wrong place. So can the current global models really provide the kind of information on local scales and on the quantities (e.g. extreme events) that the decision maker would need to know to invest for example in adaptation? A closer look indicates that evaluating skill of climate models and quantifying uncertainties in predictions is very difficult. This presentation shows that while models are improving in simulating the climate features we observe (e.g. the present day mean state, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation), the spread from multiple models in predicting future changes is often not decreasing. The main problem is that (unlike with weather forecasts for example) we cannot evaluate the model on a prediction (for example for the year 2100) and we have to use the present, or past changes as metrics of skills. But there are infinite ways of testing a model, and many metrics used to test models do not clearly relate to the prediction. Therefore there is little agreement in the community on metrics to separate ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models, and there is a concern that model development, evaluation and posterior weighting or ranking of models are all using the same datasets. While models are continuously improving in representing what we believe to be the key processes, many models also share ideas, parameterizations or even pieces of model code. The current models can therefore not be considered independent. Robustness of a model simulated result is often interpreted as increasing the confidence

  1. Epigenetic Changes during Hepatic Stellate Cell Activation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke Götze

    Full Text Available Hepatic stellate cells (HSC, which can participate in liver regeneration and fibrogenesis, have recently been identified as liver-resident mesenchymal stem cells. During their activation HSC adopt a myofibroblast-like phenotype accompanied by profound changes in the gene expression profile. DNA methylation changes at single genes have been reported during HSC activation and may participate in the regulation of this process, but comprehensive DNA methylation analyses are still missing. The aim of the present study was to elucidate the role of DNA methylation during in vitro activation of HSC.The analysis of DNA methylation changes by antibody-based assays revealed a strong decrease in the global DNA methylation level during culture-induced activation of HSC. To identify genes which may be regulated by DNA methylation, we performed a genome-wide Methyl-MiniSeq EpiQuest sequencing comparing quiescent and early culture-activated HSC. Approximately 400 differentially methylated regions with a methylation change of at least 20% were identified, showing either hypo- or hypermethylation during activation. Further analysis of selected genes for DNA methylation and expression were performed revealing a good correlation between DNA methylation changes and gene expression. Furthermore, global DNA demethylation during HSC activation was investigated by 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine assay and L-mimosine treatment showing that demethylation was independent of DNA synthesis and thereby excluding a passive DNA demethylation mechanism.In summary, in vitro activation of HSC initiated strong DNA methylation changes, which were associated with gene regulation. These results indicate that epigenetic mechanisms are important for the control of early HSC activation. Furthermore, the data show that global DNA demethylation during activation is based on an active DNA demethylation mechanism.

  2. Location and Pressures Change Prediction of Bromo Volcano Magma Chamber Using Inversion Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumalasari, Ratih; Srigutomo, Wahyu

    2016-08-01

    Bromo volcano is one of active volcanoes in Indonesia. It has erupted at least 50 times since 1775 and has been monitored by Global Positioning System (GPS) since 1989. We applied the Levenberg-Marquardt inversion scheme to estimate the physical parameters contributing to the surface deformation. Physical parameters obtained by the inversion scheme such as magma chamber location and volume change are useful in monitoring and predicting the activity of Bromo volcano. From our calculation it is revealed that the depth of the magma chamber d = 6307.6 m, radius of magma chamber α = 1098.6 m and pressure change ΔP ≈ 1.0 MPa.

  3. Predicting implementation from organizational readiness for change: a study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly P Adam

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is widespread interest in measuring organizational readiness to implement evidence-based practices in clinical care. However, there are a number of challenges to validating organizational measures, including inferential bias arising from the halo effect and method bias - two threats to validity that, while well-documented by organizational scholars, are often ignored in health services research. We describe a protocol to comprehensively assess the psychometric properties of a previously developed survey, the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment. Objectives Our objective is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the psychometric properties of the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment incorporating methods specifically to address threats from halo effect and method bias. Methods and Design We will conduct three sets of analyses using longitudinal, secondary data from four partner projects, each testing interventions to improve the implementation of an evidence-based clinical practice. Partner projects field the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment at baseline (n = 208 respondents; 53 facilities, and prospectively assesses the degree to which the evidence-based practice is implemented. We will conduct predictive and concurrent validities using hierarchical linear modeling and multivariate regression, respectively. For predictive validity, the outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in the use of the evidence-based practice. We will use intra-class correlations derived from hierarchical linear models to assess inter-rater reliability. Two partner projects will also field measures of job satisfaction for convergent and discriminant validity analyses, and will field Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment measures at follow-up for concurrent validity (n = 158 respondents; 33 facilities. Convergent and discriminant validities will test associations between organizational readiness and

  4. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeate...

  5. Institutional Constraints, Legislative Activism and Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Citi, Manuele; Justesen, Mogens Kamp

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a study of how institutional constraints affect legislative activism and how legislative activism in turn affects policy change through an analysis of the European Union's legislative process. The argument revolves around the key role of the European Commission in advancing ...

  6. Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross S. Davidson

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

  7. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D.; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H. E.

    2017-01-01

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change. PMID:28223487

  8. Ionic changes during experimentally induced seizure activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lux, H D; Heinemann, U

    1978-01-01

    Changes in intra- and extracellular ionic activity and their relation to generation and termination of seizure phenomena can be studied with the help of ion-selective microelectrodes. Transient changes in extracellular potassium activity (aK) of the cortex regularly accompany paroxysmal activity induced by electrical stimulation and pentylenetetrazol injections or occur within active penicillin and aluminum foci. A rise of aK from baseline levels of about 3 mmoles/l up to ceiling levels of 8--12 mmoles/l, followed by subnormal K activity, is typically found during seizure discharge. Extracellular K accumulation during seizures facilitates the spread into extrafocal regions. Ceiling levels of extracellular aK are characterized by pronounced K reabsorption which is probably a limiting mechanism for the rise in extracellular aK. It may be a consequence of a simultaneous rise in intracellular Na activity that an electrogenic Na--K exchange process is involved in the termination of ictal activity. Seizures are also accompanied by significant reductions in extracellular Ca2+ activity (aCa) to as low as 0.7 mmoles/l (resting aCa 1.25 mmoles/l). There is no critical level of lowered aCa at which a seizure ultimately results. However, unlike changes in aK reductions in aCa can precede ictal activity. Thus, a fall of aCa occurs before the onset of paroxysmal periods during cyclical spike driving in a penicillin focus and before seizures induced by pentylenetetrazol. Ca2+-dependent mechanisms may contribute to seizure generation. In addition to changes in aK and aCa, intracellular chloride activity (aCl) can increase during seizure activity, as a result of an impaired chloride extrusion mechanism, which would lead to a reduced efficacy of inhibitory synaptic transmission and, therefore, to facilitation of seizure generation.

  9. Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Nay, John J; Gilligan, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders' beliefs about the cause of global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge quickly toward believing the "true" climate model, suggesting that a climate market could be useful for building public consensus.

  10. Abrupt Climate Change: A Magnetic Coupling Model (MCM) Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ely, John T. A.

    2002-04-01

    Recent findings [p.8 ISBN 0-309-07434-7] show major climate changes often occur in a decade. This is another of many MCM predictions (see refs). All of them tested from 1968 to date have been proven, including: Global warming is real and driven by fossil fuel (1970's); This CO2 forcing has ended Major Ice Ages; All Major and Minor Ice Ages are caused by decreases in existing (primarily subvisible and other thin, especially newly forming) cirrus at mid to high geomagnetic latitudes; Ionization of the atmosphere near 250 grams per square cm depth by GCR (galactic cosmic ray protons circa 1 gev) cause cirrus depression; Ice cores and other proxy records show ice ages exhibit increased beryllium-10, carbon-14, etc, due to GCR. As noted in the Mar and Apr abstracts, the MCM predictable climate ended in 2000, following over 30 yrs of our ignoring its easily testable warnings re fossil fuel. Hence, we now face the somber question of whether human intervention is still possible in a CO2 Runaway and sea level rise that may be on a decade time scale. [Ely, Session A8, APS Mtg, Seattle, Mar 01; Ely, Session H14.013, APS Mtg, Apr 01; MCM pub list http://faculty.washington.edu/ely/MCM.html

  11. Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Adaptation under Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Z.; Ma, Y.; van der Velde, R.; Dente, L.; Wang, L.; Timmermans, J.; Menenti, M.; Sobrino, J.; Li, Z.-L.; Verhoef, W.; Jia, L.; Wen, J.; He, Y.; Wan, L.; Liu, Q. H.; Yu, Q.; Li, X.; Zhong, L.; Zeng, Y.; Tian, X.; Li, L.; Qin, C.; Timmermans, W.; van Helvoirt, M.; van der Tol, C.; Salama, M. S.; Vekerdy, Z.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a quantitative and operational system for nationwide drought monitoring and drought impact assessment for application in agriculture and water resources and environment in China using ESA, Chinese and other relevant satellite data as major data source in combination with other data (e.g. meteorological and drought statistics, etc.). An extension to drought prediction and adaptation to climate change had been made compared to the Dragon I drought monitoring project. In detail the project generated: (1) a preoperational real time drought monitoring and prediction system, (2) improved understanding of land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions over different terrains (e.g. agriculture land, forest, Gobi desert, high plateau, polar environment), (3) algorithms for estimation of land surface parameters and heat fluxes, (4) assessment of economic loss caused by drought and adaptation measures under climatic change, (5) training of young scientists in the area of water, climate and environment. An operational system will be established by the China Meteorological Administration’s National Meteorological Center (CMA/NMC) to provide information concerning the drought evolution situation and to support drought relief decision-making. We report on advances in retrievals of soil moisture using in-situ observations, satellite sensors and numerical modeling. The accuracy of available soil moisture products are assessed using in-situ data collected in the soil moisture monitoring networks developed for this and other projects. The use of these satellite retrievals in drought monitoring is demonstrated by analyzing the droughts in China and the generated drought assessment indices are compared to current practice by CMA.

  12. Soda consumption during ad libitum food intake predicts weight change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundrick, Sarah C; Thearle, Marie S; Venti, Colleen A; Krakoff, Jonathan; Votruba, Susanne B

    2014-03-01

    Soda consumption may contribute to weight gain over time. Objective data were used to determine whether soda consumption predicts weight gain or changes in glucose regulation over time. Subjects without diabetes (128 men, 75 women; mean age 34.3±8.9 years; mean body mass index 32.5±7.4; mean percentage body fat 31.6%±8.6%) self-selected their food from an ad libitum vending machine system for 3 days. Mean daily energy intake was calculated from food weight. Energy consumed from soda was recorded as were food choices that were low in fat (30%). Food choices were expressed as percentage of daily energy intake. A subset of 85 subjects had measurement of follow-up weights and oral glucose tolerance (57 men, 28 women; mean follow-up time=2.5±2.1 years, range 6 months to 9.9 years). Energy consumed from soda was negatively related to age (r=-0.27, P=0.0001) and choosing low-fat foods (r=-0.35, Psoda correlated with change in weight (r=0.21, P=0.04). This relationship was unchanged after adjusting for follow-up time and initial weight. Soda consumption is a marker for excess energy consumption and is associated with weight gain.

  13. Selection, adaptation, and predictive information in changing environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feltgen, Quentin; Nemenman, Ilya

    2014-03-01

    Adaptation by means of natural selection is a key concept in evolutionary biology. Individuals better matched to the surrounding environment outcompete the others. This increases the fraction of the better adapted individuals in the population, and hence increases its collective fitness. Adaptation is also prominent on the physiological scale in neuroscience and cell biology. There each individual infers properties of the environment and changes to become individually better, improving the overall population as well. Traditionally, these two notions of adaption have been considered distinct. Here we argue that both types of adaptation result in the same population growth in a broad class of analytically tractable population dynamics models in temporally changing environments. In particular, both types of adaptation lead to subextensive corrections to the population growth rates. These corrections are nearly universal and are equal to the predictive information in the environment time series, which is also the characterization of the time series complexity. This work has been supported by the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

  14. Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis-Miguel Chevin

    Full Text Available Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

  15. Dynamic Predictions of Semi-Arid Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Wittig, T. A.

    2011-12-01

    Savannas make up about 18% of the global landmass and contain about 22% of the world's population (Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2008). They are unique ecosystems in that they consist of both grass and trees. Depending on the land use, amount of precipitation, herbivory, and fire frequency, either trees or grasses can be more prevalent than the other (Sankaran et al., 2005). Savannas in sub-Saharan Africa are usually considered water-limited ecosystems due to the seasonal rainfall. It has been shown that the vegetation responds on a short timescale to the rainfall (Scanlon et al, 2002). Therefore, savannas are foreseen as vulnerable ecosystems to future changes in the land use and climate change (Sankaran et al, 2005). The goal of this research is to quantify the vulnerability of this ecosystem by projecting future changes in the savanna structure due to land use and climate change through the use of a dynamic vegetation model. This research will provide a better understanding of the relationship between precipitation and vegetation in savannas through the use of a Vegetation Dynamics Model developed to predict surface water fluxes and vegetation dynamics in water-limited ecosystems (Williams and Albertson, 2005). In this project, it will be used to model leaf area index (LAI) for point locations within sub-Saharan Africa between Kenya and Botswana with a range of annual rainfall and savanna type. With this model, future projections are developed for what can be anticipated in the future for the savanna structure based on three climate change scenarios; (1) decreased depth, (2) decreased frequency, and (3) decreased wet season length. The effect of the climate change scenarios on the plant water stress and plant water uptake will be analyzed in order to understand the dynamic effects of precipitation on vegetation. Therefore, this will allow conclusions to be drawn about how mean precipitation and a changing climate effect the sensitivity of savanna vegetation. It is

  16. Predicting the activation states of the muscles governing upper esophageal sphincter relaxation and opening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omari, Taher I; Jones, Corinne A; Hammer, Michael J; Cock, Charles; Dinning, Philip; Wiklendt, Lukasz; Costa, Marcello; McCulloch, Timothy M

    2016-03-15

    The swallowing muscles that influence upper esophageal sphincter (UES) opening are centrally controlled and modulated by sensory information. Activation and deactivation of neural inputs to these muscles, including the intrinsic cricopharyngeus (CP) and extrinsic submental (SM) muscles, results in their mechanical activation or deactivation, which changes the diameter of the lumen, alters the intraluminal pressure, and ultimately reduces or promotes flow of content. By measuring the changes in diameter, using intraluminal impedance, and the concurrent changes in intraluminal pressure, it is possible to determine when the muscles are passively or actively relaxing or contracting. From these "mechanical states" of the muscle, the neural inputs driving the specific motor behaviors of the UES can be inferred. In this study we compared predictions of UES mechanical states directly with the activity measured by electromyography (EMG). In eight subjects, pharyngeal pressure and impedance were recorded in parallel with CP- and SM-EMG activity. UES pressure and impedance swallow profiles correlated with the CP-EMG and SM-EMG recordings, respectively. Eight UES muscle states were determined by using the gradient of pressure and impedance with respect to time. Guided by the level and gradient change of EMG activity, mechanical states successfully predicted the activity of the CP muscle and SM muscle independently. Mechanical state predictions revealed patterns consistent with the known neural inputs activating the different muscles during swallowing. Derivation of "activation state" maps may allow better physiological and pathophysiological interpretations of UES function.

  17. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  18. Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, M.J., E-mail: michael.morton@astrazeneca.com [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Bridgland-Taylor, M. [Discovery Sciences, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom); Pollard, C.E.; Bowes, J.; Valentin, J.-P. [Drug Safety and Metabolism, AstraZeneca, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 4TG (United Kingdom)

    2014-09-01

    Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity in the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility.

  19. Predicting eruptions from precursory activity using remote sensing data hybridization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reath, K. A.; Ramsey, M. S.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P. W.

    2016-07-01

    Many volcanoes produce some level of precursory activity prior to an eruption. This activity may or may not be detected depending on the available monitoring technology. In certain cases, precursors such as thermal output can be interpreted to make forecasts about the time and magnitude of the impending eruption. Kamchatka (Russia) provides an ideal natural laboratory to study a wide variety of eruption styles and precursory activity prior to an eruption. At Bezymianny volcano for example, a clear increase in thermal activity commonly occurs before an eruption, which has allowed predictions to be made months ahead of time. Conversely, the eruption of Tolbachik volcano in 2012 produced no discernable thermal precursors before the large scale effusive eruption. However, most volcanoes fall between the extremes of consistently behaved and completely undetectable, which is the case with neighboring Kliuchevskoi volcano. This study tests the effectiveness of using thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing to track volcanic thermal precursors using data from both the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. It focuses on three large eruptions that produced different levels and durations of effusive and explosive behavior at Kliuchevskoi. Before each of these eruptions, TIR spaceborne sensors detected thermal anomalies (i.e., pixels with brightness temperatures > 2 °C above the background temperature). High-temporal, low-spatial resolution (i.e., ~ hours and 1 km) AVHRR data are ideal for detecting large thermal events occurring over shorter time scales, such as the hot material ejected following strombolian eruptions. In contrast, high-spatial, low-temporal resolution (i.e., days to weeks and 90 m) ASTER data enables the detection of much lower thermal activity; however, activity with a shorter duration will commonly be missed. ASTER and AVHRR data are combined to track low

  20. Changes in Predicted Muscle Coordination with Subject-Specific Muscle Parameters for Individuals after Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Knarr

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Muscle weakness is commonly seen in individuals after stroke, characterized by lower forces during a maximal volitional contraction. Accurate quantification of muscle weakness is paramount when evaluating individual performance and response to after stroke rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of subject-specific muscle force and activation deficits on predicted muscle coordination when using musculoskeletal models for individuals after stroke. Maximum force generating ability and central activation ratio of the paretic plantar flexors, dorsiflexors, and quadriceps muscle groups were obtained using burst superimposition for four individuals after stroke with a range of walking speeds. Two models were created per subject: one with generic and one with subject-specific activation and maximum isometric force parameters. The inclusion of subject-specific muscle data resulted in changes in the model-predicted muscle forces and activations which agree with previously reported compensation patterns and match more closely the timing of electromyography for the plantar flexor and hamstring muscles. This was the first study to create musculoskeletal simulations of individuals after stroke with subject-specific muscle force and activation data. The results of this study suggest that subject-specific muscle force and activation data enhance the ability of musculoskeletal simulations to accurately predict muscle coordination in individuals after stroke.

  1. The inventory-based approach for prediction of SOC change following land use change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Wesemael B.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes and illustrates an approach to predict soil organic carbon (SOC change in time after land use change as derived from SOC differences in space. The approach requires the availability of a SOC inventory for spatially explicit combinations of soil and land use type, further termed landscape units (LSU. SOC of LSU with equal soil type but different land use type are compared and the observed differences in SOC are interpreted as the expected SOC change after the corresponding land use change. From a confrontation with time series of agro-statistical data on crop and grassland areas and on animal manure production, we conclude that the approach is a low-cost alternative for more complex methods like multitemporal assessments and modelling, provided that (i an inventory reflecting current management and climate conditions and (ii additional information on the extent and type of recent land use changes are available. Examples of land use and land management changes are discussed, such as grassland – cropland conversions, the conversion of permanent to temporary grassland, or changes in manure application.

  2. Prediction of PKCθ Inhibitory Activity Using the Random Forest Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuwei Zhang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to the prediction of a series of 208 structurally diverse PKCθ inhibitors using the Random Forest (RF based on the Mold2 molecular descriptors. The RF model was established and identified as a robust predictor of the experimental pIC50 values, producing good external R2pred of 0.72, a standard error of prediction (SEP of 0.45, for an external prediction set of 51 inhibitors which were not used in the development of QSAR models. By using the RF built-in measure of the relative importance of the descriptors, an important predictor—the number of group donor atoms for H-bonds (with N and O―has been identified to play a crucial role in PKCθ inhibitory activity. We hope that the developed RF model will be helpful in the screening and prediction of novel unknown PKCθ inhibitory activity.

  3. External validation and prediction employing the predictive squared correlation coefficient test set activity mean vs training set activity mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüürmann, Gerrit; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Chen, Jingwen; Wang, Bin; Kühne, Ralph

    2008-11-01

    The external prediction capability of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models is often quantified using the predictive squared correlation coefficient, q (2). This index relates the predictive residual sum of squares, PRESS, to the activity sum of squares, SS, without postprocessing of the model output, the latter of which is automatically done when calculating the conventional squared correlation coefficient, r (2). According to the current OECD guidelines, q (2) for external validation should be calculated with SS referring to the training set activity mean. Our present findings including a mathematical proof demonstrate that this approach yields a systematic overestimation of the prediction capability that is triggered by the difference between the training and test set activity means. Example calculations with three regression models and data sets taken from literature show further that for external test sets, q (2) based on the training set activity mean may become even larger than r (2). As a consequence, we suggest to always use the test set activity mean when quantifying the external prediction capability through q (2) and to revise the respective OECD guidance document accordingly. The discussion includes a comparison between r (2) and q (2) value ranges and the q (2) statistics for cross-validation.

  4. Can tail damage outbreaks in the pig be predicted by behavioural change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Mona Lilian Vestbjerg; Andersen, Heidi Mai-Lis; Pedersen, Lene Juul

    2016-01-01

    damage outbreak. Behaviours found to change prior to an outbreak include increased activity level, increased performance of enrichment object manipulation, and a changed proportion of tail posture with more tails between the legs. Monitoring these types of behaviours is also discussed for the purpose...... preventive methods. One strategy is the surveillance of the pigs' behaviour for known preceding indicators of tail damage, which makes it possible to predict a tail damage outbreak and prevent it in proper time. This review discusses the existing literature on behavioural changes observed prior to a tail...... of developing an automatic warning system for tail damage outbreaks, with activity level showing promising results for being monitored automatically. Encouraging results have been found so far for the development of an automatic warning system; however, there is a need for further investigation and development...

  5. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh;

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty...... outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeated until the fault is detected by a passive diagnoser. It is demonstrated how the generated excitation signal...

  6. Climate Change Policies for the XXIst Century: Mechanisms, Predictions and Recommendations

    CERN Document Server

    Khmelinskii, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW-motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate...

  7. PASS-GP: Predictive active set selection for Gaussian processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2010-01-01

    to the active set selection strategy and marginal likelihood optimization on the active set. We make extensive tests on the USPS and MNIST digit classification databases with and without incorporating invariances, demonstrating that we can get state-of-the-art results (e.g.0.86% error on MNIST) with reasonable......We propose a new approximation method for Gaussian process (GP) learning for large data sets that combines inline active set selection with hyperparameter optimization. The predictive probability of the label is used for ranking the data points. We use the leave-one-out predictive probability...... available in GPs to make a common ranking for both active and inactive points, allowing points to be removed again from the active set. This is important for keeping the complexity down and at the same time focusing on points close to the decision boundary. We lend both theoretical and empirical support...

  8. Ligand-induced conformational changes: Improved predictions of ligand binding conformations and affinities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frimurer, T.M.; Peters, Günther H.J.; Iversen, L.F.

    2003-01-01

    A computational docking strategy using multiple conformations of the target protein is discussed and evaluated. A series of low molecular weight, competitive, nonpeptide protein tyrosine phosphatase inhibitors are considered for which the x-ray crystallographic structures in complex with protein...... tyrosine phosphatase 1 B (PTP1B) are known. To obtain a quantitative measure of the impact of conformational changes induced by the inhibitors, these were docked to the active site region of various structures of PTP1B using the docking program FlexX. Firstly, the inhibitors were docked to a PTP1B crystal...... predicted binding energy and a correct docking mode. Thirdly, to improve the predictability of the docking procedure in the general case, where only a single target protein structure is known, we evaluate an approach which takes possible protein side-chain conformational changes into account. Here, side...

  9. A neural network model for olfactory glomerular activity prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Zu; Tsuji, Toshio; Takiguchi, Noboru; Ohtake, Hisao

    2012-12-01

    Recently, the importance of odors and methods for their evaluation have seen increased emphasis, especially in the fragrance and food industries. Although odors can be characterized by their odorant components, their chemical information cannot be directly related to the flavors we perceive. Biological research has revealed that neuronal activity related to glomeruli (which form part of the olfactory system) is closely connected to odor qualities. Here we report on a neural network model of the olfactory system that can predict glomerular activity from odorant molecule structures. We also report on the learning and prediction ability of the proposed model.

  10. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

  11. Physical Activity Predicts Performance in an Unpracticed Bimanual Coordination Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P.; Serbruyns, Leen; Swinnen, Stephan P.

    2017-01-01

    Practice of a given physical activity is known to improve the motor skills related to this activity. However, whether unrelated skills are also improved is still unclear. To test the impact of physical activity on an unpracticed motor task, 26 young adults completed the international physical activity questionnaire and performed a bimanual coordination task they had never practiced before. Results showed that higher total physical activity predicted higher performance in the bimanual task, controlling for multiple factors such as age, physical inactivity, music practice, and computer games practice. Linear mixed models allowed this effect of physical activity to be generalized to a large population of bimanual coordination conditions. This finding runs counter to the notion that generalized motor abilities do not exist and supports the existence of a “learning to learn” skill that could be improved through physical activity and that impacts performance in tasks that are not necessarily related to the practiced activity. PMID:28265253

  12. Comparing Predictions and Outcomes : Theory and Application to Income Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, J.W.M.; Dominitz, J.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    1997-01-01

    Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, predictions may be compared with realized outcomes.

  13. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  14. PREDICTS: Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Mace

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The PREDICTS project (www.predicts.org.uk is a three-year NERC-funded project to model and predict at a global scale how local terrestrial diversity responds to human pressures such as land use, land cover, pollution, invasive species and infrastructure. PREDICTS is a collaboration between Imperial College London, the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Microsoft Research Cambridge, UCL and the University of Sussex. In order to meet its aims, the project relies on extensive data describing the diversity and composition of biological communities at a local scale. Such data are collected on a vast scale through the committed efforts of field ecologists. If you have appropriate data that you would be willing to share with us, please get in touch (enquiries@predicts.org.uk. All contributions will be acknowledged appropriately and all data contributors will be included as co-authors on an open-access paper describing the database.

  15. Testing Predictions of the Interactive Activation Model in Recovery from Aphasia after Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokel, Regina; Rochon, Elizabeth; Leonard, Carol

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents preliminary results of pre- and post-treatment error analysis from an aphasic patient with anomia. The Interactive Activation (IA) model of word production (Dell, Schwartz, Martin, Saffran, & Gagnon, 1997) is utilized to make predictions about the anticipated changes on a picture naming task and to explain emerging patterns.…

  16. Combining Satellite Observations of Fire Activity and Numerical Weather Prediction to Improve the Prediction of Smoke Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, D. A.; Wang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Smoke emissions estimates used in air quality and visibility forecasting applications are currently limited by the information content of satellite fire observations, and the lack of a skillful short-term forecast of changes in fire activity. This study explores the potential benefits of a recently developed sub-pixel-based calculation of fire radiative power (FRPf) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which provides more precise estimates of the radiant energy (over the retrieved fire area) that in turn, improves estimates of the thermal buoyancy of smoke plumes and may be helpful characterizing the meteorological effects on fire activity for large fire events. Results show that unlike the current FRP product, the incorporation of FRPf produces a statistically significant correlation (R = 0.42) with smoke plume height data provided by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and several meteorological variables, such as surface wind speed and temperature, which may be useful for discerning cases where smoke was injected above the boundary layer. Drawing from recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP), this study also examines the meteorological conditions characteristic of fire ignition, growth, decay, and extinction, which are used to develop an automated, 24-hour prediction of satellite fire activity. Satellite fire observations from MODIS and geostationary sensors show that the fire prediction model is an improvement (RMSE reduction of 13 - 20%) over the forecast of persistence commonly used by near-real-time fire emission inventories. The ultimate goal is to combine NWP data and satellite fire observations to improve both analysis and prediction of biomass-burning emissions, through improved understanding of the interactions between fire activity and weather at scales appropriate for operational modeling. This is a critical step toward producing a global fire prediction model and improving operational forecasts of

  17. PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USING MODIS DATASET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hirayama

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan’s cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC,warmth index (WI, winter precipitation (PRW and summer precipitation (PRS: and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO, surface geology (GEOL, soil (SOIL, slope aspect (ASP, and inclination (INCL; were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

  18. Prediction of Changes in Vegetation Distribution Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Modis Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirayama, Hidetake; Tomita, Mizuki; Hara, Keitarou

    2016-06-01

    The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan's cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC) warmth index (WI) winter precipitation (PRW) and summer precipitation (PRS): and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO), surface geology (GEOL), soil (SOIL), slope aspect (ASP), and inclination (INCL); were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

  19. Hemostatic system changes predictive value in patients with ischemic brain disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raičević Ranko

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to determine the importance of tracking the dynamics of changes of the hemostatic system factors (aggregation of thrombocytes, D-dimer, PAI-1, antithrombin III, protein C and protein S, factor VII and factor VIII, fibrin degradation products, euglobulin test and the activated partial thromboplastin time – aPTPV in relation to the level of the severity of ischemic brain disorders (IBD and the level of neurological and functional deficiency in the beginning of IBD manifestation from 7 to 10 days, 19 to 21 day, and after 3 to 6 months. The research results confirmed significant predictive value of changes of hemostatic system with the predomination of procoagulant factors, together with the insufficiency of fibrinolysis. Concerning the IBD severity and it's outcome, the significant predictive value was shown in the higher levels of PAI-1 and the lower level of antithrombin III, and borderline significant value was shown in the accelerated aggregation of thrombocytes and the increased concentration of D-dimer. It could be concluded that the tracking of the dynamics of changes in parameters of hemostatic system proved to be an easily accessible method with the significant predictive value regarding the development of more severe. IBD cases and the outcome of the disease itself.

  20. Transient Response of Aerobic and Anoxic Activated Sludge Activities to Sudden Substrate Concentration Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, G.; Vanrolleghem, P.A.; Gernaey, Krist

    2004-01-01

    The state-of-the-art understanding of activated sludge processes as summarized in activated sludge models (ASMs) predicts an instantaneous increase in the biomass activity (which is measured, e.g., by the corresponding respiration rate OUR, NUR, etc.) under sudden substrate concentration changes...... process. That transient phenomenon exhibits itself immediately upon addition of a substrate source to an endogenously respiring activated sludge sample and it usually takes a few minutes until the activated sludge reaches its maximum possible rate under given environmental conditions. This discrepancy...... response of the activated sludge most likely results from the sequence of intracellular reactions involved in substrate degradation by the activated sludge. Results from studies performed elsewhere with pure cultures (S. cerevisae and E. coli) support the hypothesis. The transient phenomenon can...

  1. Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Alpine ecosystems will be greatly impacted by climatic change, but other factors, such as land use and invasive species, are likely to play an important role too. Climate can influence ecosystems at several levels. We describe some of them, stressing methodological approaches and available data. Climate can modify species phenology, such as flowering date of plants and hatching date in insects. It can also change directly population demography (survival, reproduction, dispersal, and therefore species distribution. Finally it can effect interactions among species – snow cover for example can affect the success of some predators. One characteristic of alpine ecosystems is the presence of snow cover, but surprisingly the role played by snow is relatively poorly known, mainly for logistical reasons. Even if we have made important progress regarding the development of predictive models, particularly so for distribution of alpine plants, we still need to set up observational and experimental networks which properly take into account the variability of alpine ecosystems and of their interactions with climate.Les écosystèmes alpins vont être grandement influencés par les changements climatiques à venir, mais d’autres facteurs, tels que l’utilisation des terres ou les espèces invasives, pourront aussi jouer un rôle important. Le climat peut influencer les écosystèmes à différents niveaux, et nous en décrivons certains, en mettant l’accent sur les méthodes utilisées et les données disponibles. Le climat peut d’abord modifier la phénologie des espèces, comme la date de floraison des plantes ou la date d’éclosion des insectes. Il peut ensuite affecter directement la démographie des espèces (survie, reproduction, dispersion et donc à terme leur répartition. Il peut enfin agir sur les interactions entre espèces – le couvert neigeux par exemple modifie le succès de certains prédateurs. Une caractéristique des

  2. Predicting active users' personality based on micro-blogging behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Li, Ang; Hao, Bibo; Guan, Zengda; Zhu, Tingshao

    2014-01-01

    Because of its richness and availability, micro-blogging has become an ideal platform for conducting psychological research. In this paper, we proposed to predict active users' personality traits through micro-blogging behaviors. 547 Chinese active users of micro-blogging participated in this study. Their personality traits were measured by the Big Five Inventory, and digital records of micro-blogging behaviors were collected via web crawlers. After extracting 839 micro-blogging behavioral features, we first trained classification models utilizing Support Vector Machine (SVM), differentiating participants with high and low scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory [corrected]. The classification accuracy ranged from 84% to 92%. We also built regression models utilizing PaceRegression methods, predicting participants' scores on each dimension of the Big Five Inventory. The Pearson correlation coefficients between predicted scores and actual scores ranged from 0.48 to 0.54. Results indicated that active users' personality traits could be predicted by micro-blogging behaviors.

  3. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  4. Predicting activity approach based on new atoms similarity kernel function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu El-Atta, Ahmed H; Moussa, M I; Hassanien, Aboul Ella

    2015-07-01

    Drug design is a high cost and long term process. To reduce time and costs for drugs discoveries, new techniques are needed. Chemoinformatics field implements the informational techniques and computer science like machine learning and graph theory to discover the chemical compounds properties, such as toxicity or biological activity. This is done through analyzing their molecular structure (molecular graph). To overcome this problem there is an increasing need for algorithms to analyze and classify graph data to predict the activity of molecules. Kernels methods provide a powerful framework which combines machine learning with graph theory techniques. These kernels methods have led to impressive performance results in many several chemoinformatics problems like biological activity prediction. This paper presents a new approach based on kernel functions to solve activity prediction problem for chemical compounds. First we encode all atoms depending on their neighbors then we use these codes to find a relationship between those atoms each other. Then we use relation between different atoms to find similarity between chemical compounds. The proposed approach was compared with many other classification methods and the results show competitive accuracy with these methods.

  5. Predictive Active Set Selection Methods for Gaussian Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    We propose an active set selection framework for Gaussian process classification for cases when the dataset is large enough to render its inference prohibitive. Our scheme consists of a two step alternating procedure of active set update rules and hyperparameter optimization based upon marginal...... likelihood maximization. The active set update rules rely on the ability of the predictive distributions of a Gaussian process classifier to estimate the relative contribution of a datapoint when being either included or removed from the model. This means that we can use it to include points with potentially...... high impact to the classifier decision process while removing those that are less relevant. We introduce two active set rules based on different criteria, the first one prefers a model with interpretable active set parameters whereas the second puts computational complexity first, thus a model...

  6. Personality traits and individual differences predict threat-induced changes in postural control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaback, Martin; Cleworth, Taylor W; Carpenter, Mark G; Adkin, Allan L

    2015-04-01

    This study explored whether specific personality traits and individual differences could predict changes in postural control when presented with a height-induced postural threat. Eighty-two healthy young adults completed questionnaires to assess trait anxiety, trait movement reinvestment (conscious motor processing, movement self-consciousness), physical risk-taking, and previous experience with height-related activities. Tests of static (quiet standing) and anticipatory (rise to toes) postural control were completed under low and high postural threat conditions. Personality traits and individual differences significantly predicted height-induced changes in static, but not anticipatory postural control. Individuals less prone to taking physical risks were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at higher frequencies and smaller amplitudes. Individuals more prone to conscious motor processing were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at larger amplitudes. Individuals more self-conscious about their movement appearance were more likely to sway at smaller amplitudes. Evidence is also provided that relationships between physical risk-taking and changes in static postural control are mediated through changes in fear of falling and physiological arousal. Results from this study may have indirect implications for balance assessment and treatment; however, further work exploring these factors in patient populations is necessary.

  7. The use of specialisation indices to predict vulnerability of coral-feeding butterflyfishes to environmental change

    KAUST Repository

    Lawton, Rebecca J.

    2011-07-14

    In the absence of detailed assessments of extinction risk, ecological specialisation is often used as a proxy of vulnerability to environmental disturbances and extinction risk. Numerous indices can be used to estimate specialisation; however, the utility of these different indices to predict vulnerability to future environmental change is unknown. Here we compare the performance of specialisation indices using coral-feeding butterflyfishes as a model group. Our aims were to 1) quantify the dietary preferences of three butterflyfish species across habitats with differing levels of resource availability; 2) investigate how estimates of dietary specialisation vary with the use of different specialisation indices; 3) determine which specialisation indices best inform predictions of vulnerability to environmental change; and 4) assess the utility of resource selection functions to inform predictions of vulnerability to environmental change. The relative level of dietary specialisation estimated for all three species varied when different specialisation indices were used, indicating that the choice of index can have a considerable impact upon estimates of specialisation. Specialisation indices that do not consider resource abundance may fail to distinguish species that primarily use common resources from species that actively target resources disproportionately more than they are available. Resource selection functions provided the greatest insights into the potential response of species to changes in resource availability. Examination of resource selection functions, in addition to specialisation indices, indicated that Chaetodon trifascialis was the most specialised feeder, with highly conserved dietary preferences across all sites, suggesting that this species is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate-induced coral loss on reefs. Our results indicate that vulnerability assessments based on some specialisation indices may be misleading and the best estimates of

  8. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Marotzke

    2000-01-01

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  9. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  10. Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

    2015-08-01

    The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress.

  11. Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey;

    2016-01-01

    change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundance and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting......Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO2+Nitrogen...

  12. Emotional attentional control predicts changes in diurnal cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaert, Bert; Barry, Tom J; Schruers, Koen; Vervliet, Bram; Hermans, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis irregularities have been associated with several psychological disorders. Hence, the identification of individual difference variables that predict variations in HPA-axis activity represents an important challenge for psychiatric research. We investigated whether self-reported attentional control in emotionally demanding situations prospectively predicted changes in diurnal salivary cortisol secretion following exposure to a prolonged psychosocial stressor. Low ability to voluntarily control attention has previously been associated with anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Attentional control was assessed using the Emotional Attentional Control Scale. In students who were preparing for academic examination, salivary cortisol was assessed before (time 1) and after (time 2) examination. Results showed that lower levels of self-reported emotional attentional control at time 1 (N=90) predicted higher absolute diurnal cortisol secretion and a slower decline in cortisol throughout the day at time 2 (N=71). Difficulty controlling attention during emotional experiences may lead to chronic HPA-axis hyperactivity after prolonged exposure to stress. These results indicate that screening for individual differences may foster prediction of HPA-axis disturbances, paving the way for targeted disorder prevention.

  13. Early Brain changes May Help Predict Autism Among High-Risk Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Media Resources Interviews & Selected Staff Profiles Multimedia Early brain changes may help predict autism among high-risk ... Share this: Page Content NIH-funded researchers link brain changes at 6 and 12 months of age ...

  14. Prediction of Factors Determining Changes in Stability in Protein Mutants

    OpenAIRE

    Parthiban, Vijayarangakannan

    2006-01-01

    Analysing the factors behind protein stability is a key research topic in molecular biology and has direct implications on protein structure prediction and protein-protein docking solutions. Protein stability upon point mutations were analysed using a distance dependant pair potential representing mainly through-space interactions and torsion angle potential representing neighbouring effects as a basic statistical mechanical setup for the analysis. The synergetic effect of accessible surface ...

  15. Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Colman, Jesse [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kalendra, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-28

    Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.

  16. Predictions of Unbalanced Response of Turbo Compressor Equipped with Active Magnetic Bearings through System Identification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, SeongKi; NOh, Myounggyu; Park, Young Woo [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Kiwook; Lee, Nam Soo; Jeog, Jinhee [LG Electronics, Gumi (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-01-15

    Since vibrations in rotating machinery is a direct cause of performance degradation and failures, it is very important to predict the level of vibrations as well as have a method to lower the vibrations to an acceptable level. However, the changes in balancing during installation and the vibrational modes of the support structure are difficult to predict. This paper presents a method for predicting the unbalanced response of a turbo-compressor supported by active magnetic bearings (AMBs). Transfer functions of the rotor are obtained through system identification using AMBs. These transfer functions contain not only the dynamics of the rotor but also the vibrational modes of the support structure. Using these transfer functions, the unbalanced response is calculated and compared with the run-up data obtained from a compressor prototype. The predictions revealed the effects of the support structure, validating the efficacy of the method.

  17. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  18. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  19. Can We Predict Types of Code Changes? An Empirical Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giger, E.; Pinzger, M.; Gall, H.C.

    2012-01-01

    Preprint of paper published in: 9th IEEE Working Conference on Mining Software Repositories (MSR), 2-3 June 2012; doi:10.1109/MSR.2012.6224284 There exist many approaches that help in pointing developers to the change-prone parts of a software system. Although beneficial, they mostly fall short in

  20. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    2016-01-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  1. Predictors and Predictive Effects of Attitudinal Inconsistency Towards Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    in Organizations: Minimizing Resistance to Change, Basil Blackwell, Cambridge, MA. Kanter, R., Stein, B., & Jick, T. (1992). The challenge of...and graduate programs’ ethics training for life scientists. In S. Frickel & K. Moor (Eds.) The New political Sociology of Science: Institutions

  2. Personality traits in rats predict vulnerability and resilience to developing stress-induced depression-like behaviors, HPA axis hyper-reactivity and brain changes in pERK1/2 activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jorge E; Diessler, Shanaz; Varea, Emilio; Márquez, Cristina; Larsen, Marianne H; Cordero, M Isabel; Sandi, Carmen

    2012-08-01

    Emerging evidence indicates that certain behavioral traits, such as anxiety, are associated with the development of depression-like behaviors after exposure to chronic stress. However, single traits do not explain the wide variability in vulnerability to stress observed in outbred populations. We hypothesized that a combination of behavioral traits might provide a better characterization of an individual's vulnerability to prolonged stress. Here, we sought to determine whether the characterization of relevant behavioral traits in rats could aid in identifying individuals with different vulnerabilities to developing stress-induced depression-like behavioral alterations. We also investigated whether behavioral traits would be related to the development of alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and in brain activity - as measured through phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2)--in response to an acute stressor following either sub-chronic (2 weeks) or chronic (4 weeks) unpredictable stress (CUS). Sprague-Dawley rats were characterized using a battery of behavioral tasks, and three principal traits were identified: anxiety, exploration and activity. When combined, the first two traits were found to explain the variability in the stress responses. Our findings confirm the increased risk of animals with high anxiety developing certain depression-like behaviors (e.g., increased floating time in the forced swim test) when progressively exposed to stress. In contrast, the behavioral profile based on combined low anxiety and low exploration was resistant to alterations related to social behaviors, while the high anxiety and low exploration profile displayed a particularly vulnerable pattern of physiological and neurobiological responses after sub-chronic stress exposure. Our findings indicate important differences in animals' vulnerability and/or resilience to the effects of repeated stress, particularly during initial or

  3. Predicting flow at work: investigating the activities and job characteristics that predict flow states at work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Karina; Cleal, Bryan

    2010-04-01

    Flow (a state of consciousness where people become totally immersed in an activity and enjoy it intensely) has been identified as a desirable state with positive effects for employee well-being and innovation at work. Flow has been studied using both questionnaires and Experience Sampling Method (ESM). In this study, we used a newly developed 9-item flow scale in an ESM study combined with a questionnaire to examine the predictors of flow at two levels: the activities (brainstorming, planning, problem solving and evaluation) associated with transient flow states and the more stable job characteristics (role clarity, influence and cognitive demands). Participants were 58 line managers from two companies in Denmark; a private accountancy firm and a public elder care organization. We found that line managers in elder care experienced flow more often than accountancy line managers, and activities such as planning, problem solving, and evaluation predicted transient flow states. The more stable job characteristics included in this study were not, however, found to predict flow at work.

  4. Changing University Students’ Alternative Conceptions of Optics by Active Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zalkida Hadžibegović

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Active learning is individual and group participation in effective activities such as in-class observing, writing, experimenting, discussion, solving problems, and talking about to-be-learned topics. Some instructors believe that active learning is impossible, or at least extremely difficult to achieve in large lecture sessions. Nevertheless, the truly impressive implementation results of theSCALE-UP learning environment suggest that such beliefs are false (Beichner et al., 2000. In this study, we present a design of an active learning environment with positive effect on students. The design is based on the following elements: (1 helping students to learn from interactive lecture experiment; (2 guiding students to use justified explanation and prediction after observing and exploring a phenomenon; (3 developing a conceptual question sequencedesigned for use in an interactive lecture with students answering questions in worksheets by writing and drawing; (4 evaluating students’ conceptual change and gains by questions related to light reflection, refraction, and image formation in an exam held a week after the active learning session. Data were collected from 95 science freshmen with different secondary school backgrounds. They participated in geometrical optics classes organized for collecting research results during and after only one active learning session.The results have showed that around 60% of the students changed their initial alternative conceptions of vision and of image formation. It was also found that a large group of university students is likely to be engaged in active learning, shifting from a passive role they usually play during teacher’s lectures.

  5. A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M. (Principal Investigator); LeMoigne, J.; Dorband, J.; Lomonaco, S.; Yesha, Ya.; Simpson, D.; Clune, T.; Pelissier, C.; Nearing, G.; Gentine, P.; Fang, B.; Shehab, A.; Radov, Asen; Tikak, N.; Prouty, Roy; Harrison, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be

  6. Predicting the responses of soil nitrite-oxidizers to multi-factorial global change: a trait-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier eLE ROUX

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California on the potential activity, abundance and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB. Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the ‘High CO2+Nitrogen+Precipitation’ treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.

  7. Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a framework for predicting quantitative relationships between molecular initiatin...

  8. How the cerebral serotonin homeostasis predicts environmental changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalbitzer, Jan; Kalbitzer, Urs; Knudsen, Gitte Moos;

    2013-01-01

    Molecular imaging studies with positron emission tomography have revealed that the availability of serotonin transporter (5-HTT) in the human brain fluctuates over the course of the year. This effect is most pronounced in carriers of the short allele of the 5-HTT promoter region (5-HTTLPR), which...... has in several previous studies been linked to an increased risk to develop mood disorders. We argue that long-lasting fluctuations in the cerebral serotonin transmission, which is regulated via the 5-HTT, are responsible for mediating responses to environmental changes based on an assessment...... of cerebral serotonin transmission to seasonal and other forms of environmental change imparts greater behavioral flexibility, at the expense of increased vulnerability to stress. This model may explain the somewhat higher prevalence of the s-allele in some human populations dwelling at geographic latitudes...

  9. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... will decline. These levels of confidence seem unwarranted, since many processes are either absent from or poorly represented in the models used, data are sparse and, unlike terrestrial crop projections, there are no controlled experiments.This review discusses methodological issues that affect our...

  10. Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change

    OpenAIRE

    Ehret, U.; Gupta, H.V.; Sivapalan, M.; Weijs, S.V.; Schymanski, S.J.; Blöschl, G.; Gelfan, A. N.; Harman, C; Kleidon, A.; Bogaard, T.A.; Wang, D.; Wagener, T.; U. Scherer; Zehe, E.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout its historical development, hydrology as an engineering discipline and earth science has relied strongly on the assumption of long-term stationary boundary conditions and system configurations, which allowed for simplified and sectoral descriptions of the dynamics of hydrological systems. However, in the face of rapid and extensive global changes (of climate, land use etc.) which affect all parts of the hydrological cycle, the general validity of this assumption appears doub...

  11. Early onset of hypertension and serum electrolyte changes as potential predictive factors of activity in advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib: results from a retrospective analysis of the HCC-AVR group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardini, Andrea Casadei; Scarpi, Emanuela; Marisi, Giorgia; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Donati, Gabriele; Giampalma, Emanuela; Faloppi, Luca; Scartozzi, Mario; Silvestris, Nicola; Bisulli, Marcello; Corbelli, Jody; Gardini, Andrea; Barba, Giuliano La; Veneroni, Luigi; Tamberi, Stefano; Cascinu, Stefano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension (HTN) is frequently associated with the use of angiogenesis inhibitors targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and appears to be a generalized effect of this class of agent. We investigated the phenomenon in 61 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving sorafenib. Blood pressure and plasma electrolytes were measured on days 1 and 15 of the treatment. Patients with sorafenib-induced HTN had a better outcome than those without HTN (disease control rate: 63.4% vs. 17.2% (p=0.001); progression-free survival 6.0 months (95% CI 3.2-10.1) vs. 2.5 months (95% CI 1.9-2.6) (p<0.001) and overall survival 14.6 months (95% CI9.7-19.0) vs. 3.9 months (95% CI 3.1-8.7) (p=0.003). Sodium levels were generally higher on day 15 than at baseline (+2.38, p<0.0001) in the group of responders (+4.95, p <0.0001) compared to patients who progressed (PD) (+0.28, p=0.607). In contrast, potassium was lower on day 14 (−0.30, p=0.0008) in the responder group (−0.58, p=0.003) than in those with progressive disease (−0.06, p=0.500). The early onset of hypertension is associated with improved clinical outcome in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Our data are suggestive of an activation of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with advanced disease who developed HTN during sorafenib treatment. PMID:26893366

  12. Interleaved Buck Converter with Variable Number of Active Phases and a Predictive Current Sharing Scheme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Lars Tønnes; Garcia, O.; Oliver, J. A.

    2008-01-01

    The efficiency of an interleaved Buck converter is typically low at light load conditions because of the switching losses in each of the switching stages. Improvements in the converter efficiency can be achieved by dynamically changing the number of active phases depending on the load current. Th...... and shows that the predictive current equalisation scheme can equalise the phase currents in a single PWM period....

  13. Proteinuria predicts relapse in adolescent and adult minimal change disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Bitencourt Dias

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: This study sought to outline the clinical and laboratory characteristics of minimal change disease in adolescents and adults and establish the clinical and laboratory characteristics of relapsing and non-relapsing patients. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated patients with confirmed diagnoses of minimal change disease by renal biopsy from 1979 to 2009; the patients were aged >13 years and had minimum 1-year follow-ups. RESULTS: Sixty-three patients with a median age (at diagnosis of 34 (23-49 years were studied, including 23 males and 40 females. At diagnosis, eight (12.7% patients presented with microscopic hematuria, 17 (27% with hypertension and 17 (27% with acute kidney injury. After the initial treatment, 55 (87.3% patients showed complete remission, six (9.5% showed partial remission and two (3.1% were nonresponders. Disease relapse was observed in 34 (54% patients who were initial responders (n = 61. In a comparison between the relapsing patients (n = 34 and the non-relapsing patients (n = 27, only proteinuria at diagnosis showed any significant difference (8.8 (7.1-12.0 vs. 6.0 (3.6-7.3 g/day, respectively, p = 0.001. Proteinuria greater than 7 g/day at the initial screening was associated with relapsing disease. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, minimal change disease in adults may sometimes present concurrently with hematuria, hypertension, and acute kidney injury. The relapsing pattern in our patients was associated with basal proteinuria over 7 g/day.

  14. Quantitative predictions of binding free energy changes in drug-resistant influenza neuraminidase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R Ripoll

    Full Text Available Quantitatively predicting changes in drug sensitivity associated with residue mutations is a major challenge in structural biology. By expanding the limits of free energy calculations, we successfully identified mutations in influenza neuraminidase (NA that confer drug resistance to two antiviral drugs, zanamivir and oseltamivir. We augmented molecular dynamics (MD with Hamiltonian Replica Exchange and calculated binding free energy changes for H274Y, N294S, and Y252H mutants. Based on experimental data, our calculations achieved high accuracy and precision compared with results from established computational methods. Analysis of 15 micros of aggregated MD trajectories provided insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying drug resistance that are at odds with current interpretations of the crystallographic data. Contrary to the notion that resistance is caused by mutant-induced changes in hydrophobicity of the binding pocket, our simulations showed that drug resistance mutations in NA led to subtle rearrangements in the protein structure and its dynamics that together alter the active-site electrostatic environment and modulate inhibitor binding. Importantly, different mutations confer resistance through different conformational changes, suggesting that a generalized mechanism for NA drug resistance is unlikely.

  15. Fire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan under predicted climate change : summary document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisien, M.; Hirsch, K.; Todd, B.; Flannigan, M. [Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Kafka, V. [Parks Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Flynn, N. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This study assesses fire danger and fire behaviour potential in central Saskatchewan using simulated climate scenarios produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), including scenario analysis of base, double and triple level carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and uses available forest fuels to develop an absolute measure of fire behaviour. For each of these climate scenarios, the CRCM-generated weather was used as input variables into the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System. Fire behavior potential was quantified using head fire intensity, a measure of the fire's energy output because it can be related to fire behavior characteristics, suppression effectiveness, and fire effects. The report discusses the implications of fire behavior potential changes for fire and forest management. Preliminary results suggest a large increase in area burned in the study area by the end of the twenty-first century. Some of the possible fire management activities for long-term prediction include: pre-positioning of resources, preparedness planning, prioritization of fire and forest management activities and fire threat evaluation. 16 refs., 1 tab, 7 figs.

  16. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  17. Biodiversity decreases disease through predictable changes in host community competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Preston, Daniel L; Hoverman, Jason T; Richgels, Katherine L D

    2013-02-14

    Accelerating rates of species extinctions and disease emergence underscore the importance of understanding how changes in biodiversity affect disease outcomes. Over the past decade, a growing number of studies have reported negative correlations between host biodiversity and disease risk, prompting suggestions that biodiversity conservation could promote human and wildlife health. Yet the generality of the diversity-disease linkage remains conjectural, in part because empirical evidence of a relationship between host competence (the ability to maintain and transmit infections) and the order in which communities assemble has proven elusive. Here we integrate high-resolution field data with multi-scale experiments to show that host diversity inhibits transmission of the virulent pathogen Ribeiroia ondatrae and reduces amphibian disease as a result of consistent linkages among species richness, host composition and community competence. Surveys of 345 wetlands indicated that community composition changed nonrandomly with species richness, such that highly competent hosts dominated in species-poor assemblages whereas more resistant species became progressively more common in diverse assemblages. As a result, amphibian species richness strongly moderated pathogen transmission and disease pathology among 24,215 examined hosts, with a 78.4% decline in realized transmission in richer assemblages. Laboratory and mesocosm manipulations revealed an approximately 50% decrease in pathogen transmission and host pathology across a realistic diversity gradient while controlling for host density, helping to establish mechanisms underlying the diversity-disease relationship and their consequences for host fitness. By revealing a consistent link between species richness and community competence, these findings highlight the influence of biodiversity on infection risk and emphasize the benefit of a community-based approach to understanding infectious diseases.

  18. Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Laura M; Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Hooker, Christine I

    2014-01-01

    LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investigated whether schizophrenia participants show LPFC deficits during cognitive control of emotional information, and whether these LPFC deficits prospectively predict changes in mood and symptoms following real-world interpersonal conflict. During fMRI, 23 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 24 healthy controls completed the Multi-Source Interference Task superimposed on neutral and negative pictures. Afterwards, schizophrenia participants completed a 21-day online daily-diary in which they rated the extent to which they experienced mood and schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms, as well as the occurrence and response to interpersonal conflict. Schizophrenia participants had lower dorsal LPFC activity (BA9) during cognitive control of task-irrelevant negative emotional information. Within schizophrenia participants, DLPFC activity during cognitive control of emotional information predicted changes in positive and negative mood on days following highly distressing interpersonal conflicts. Results have implications for understanding the specific role of LPFC in response to social stress in schizophrenia, and suggest that treatments targeting LPFC-mediated cognitive control of emotion could promote adaptive response to social stress in schizophrenia.

  19. Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Tully, PhD

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investigated whether schizophrenia participants show LPFC deficits during cognitive control of emotional information, and whether these LPFC deficits prospectively predict changes in mood and symptoms following real-world interpersonal conflict. During fMRI, 23 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 24 healthy controls completed the Multi-Source Interference Task superimposed on neutral and negative pictures. Afterwards, schizophrenia participants completed a 21-day online daily-diary in which they rated the extent to which they experienced mood and schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms, as well as the occurrence and response to interpersonal conflict. Schizophrenia participants had lower dorsal LPFC activity (BA9 during cognitive control of task-irrelevant negative emotional information. Within schizophrenia participants, DLPFC activity during cognitive control of emotional information predicted changes in positive and negative mood on days following highly distressing interpersonal conflicts. Results have implications for understanding the specific role of LPFC in response to social stress in schizophrenia, and suggest that treatments targeting LPFC-mediated cognitive control of emotion could promote adaptive response to social stress in schizophrenia.

  20. Prediction of antibacterial activity from physicochemical properties of antimicrobial peptides.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel N Melo

    Full Text Available Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM, which conciliates the two types of observations.

  1. Relationship satisfaction predicts sexual activity following risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Tierney; McGregor, Bonnie; Swisher, Elizabeth

    2014-06-01

    Changes in sexual function are a common outcome following risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), a prophylactic surgery for women at high risk of ovarian and other gynecologic cancers. Despite the known importance of sexuality in patients' quality of life and satisfaction with surgery, little is known about what predicts sexual activity following RRSO. The present study examined how mental and physical health variables predicted sexual activity before and after RRSO. We conducted a secondary analysis of quality of life measures collected in 85 women at high risk for ovarian cancer. Participants completed validated measures of mental, physical, and relationship health 1-2 weeks before surgery, and 2, 6 and 12 months following surgery. Across analyses, relationship satisfaction emerged as the most significant predictor of change in sexual activity: women with high relationship satisfaction were more likely to continue to have regular sexual activity following RRSO, even in the presence of vaginal menopausal symptoms. The effect of depression, anxiety and overall physical health on sexual activity was non-significant when controlling for relationship satisfaction. When counseling women about RRSO and its impact on sexual activity, clinicians should discuss the effect of the patient's relationship health on this outcome.

  2. Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Pattnaik, S.; De, S.

    2013-08-01

    This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and saturate thereafter. Irrespective of the phases of the monsoon, the lower bound of predictability is 2 pentads, while upper bound of predictability for initial conditions starting from active phase saturates at 3 pentads and for break and transition phases predictability error saturates at a later stage at about 5 pentad. Initial conditions started from transition phase shows higher potential predictability followed by break phase and then active phase.

  3. Changes in active site histidine hydrogen bonding trigger cryptochrome activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Abir; Manahan, Craig C; Top, Deniz; Yee, Estella F; Lin, Changfan; Young, Michael W; Thiel, Walter; Crane, Brian R

    2016-09-06

    Cryptochrome (CRY) is the principal light sensor of the insect circadian clock. Photoreduction of the Drosophila CRY (dCRY) flavin cofactor to the anionic semiquinone (ASQ) restructures a C-terminal tail helix (CTT) that otherwise inhibits interactions with targets that include the clock protein Timeless (TIM). All-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations indicate that flavin reduction destabilizes the CTT, which undergoes large-scale conformational changes (the CTT release) on short (25 ns) timescales. The CTT release correlates with the conformation and protonation state of conserved His378, which resides between the CTT and the flavin cofactor. Poisson-Boltzmann calculations indicate that flavin reduction substantially increases the His378 pKa Consistent with coupling between ASQ formation and His378 protonation, dCRY displays reduced photoreduction rates with increasing pH; however, His378Asn/Arg variants show no such pH dependence. Replica-exchange MD simulations also support CTT release mediated by changes in His378 hydrogen bonding and verify other responsive regions of the protein previously identified by proteolytic sensitivity assays. His378 dCRY variants show varying abilities to light-activate TIM and undergo self-degradation in cellular assays. Surprisingly, His378Arg/Lys variants do not degrade in light despite maintaining reactivity toward TIM, thereby implicating different conformational responses in these two functions. Thus, the dCRY photosensory mechanism involves flavin photoreduction coupled to protonation of His378, whose perturbed hydrogen-bonding pattern alters the CTT and surrounding regions.

  4. Behind the stage of deliberate self-persuasion: When changes in valence of associations to an attitude object predict attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tong; Lord, Charles G; Yoke, Kristin

    2015-12-01

    Modern theory and research on evaluative processes, combined with a comprehensive review of deliberate self-persuasion (Maio & Thomas, 2007, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull., 11, 46), suggest two types of strategies people can use to construct new, more desired attitudes. Epistemic strategies change the perceived valence of associations activated by the attitude object. Teleologic strategies, in contrast, keep undesired associations from being activated in the first place, thus obviating the need to change their perceived valence. Change in perceived valence of associations therefore might predict attitude change better when people pursue epistemic than teleologic strategies for deliberate self-persuasion. This hypothesis gained convergent support from three studies in which use of epistemic versus teleologic strategies was measured as an individual difference (Study 1) and manipulated (studies 2 and 3). The results of these studies supported the theoretical distinction between the two strategies and suggested further research directions.

  5. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity ...

  6. Modelling land Use Change : Improving the prediction of future land use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs, A.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land Use Change: Improving the prediction of future land use patterns. Man has been altering his living environment since prehistoric times and will continue to do so. It is predicted that by 2030 about 90,000 ha will be needed for residential developments in the Netherlands and 55,000 ha

  7. Predicting Change in Career Indecision from a Self-Psychology Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Steven B.

    1987-01-01

    Proposes a hierarchical model based on self-psychology that predicts a reduction in career indecision after a career intervention. Tested model's validity in a study of college students (N=107). Study showed model partially supported with goal instability, self-esteem, and interest pattern predicting change in career indecision level after career…

  8. Dynamic Associations of Change in Physical Activity and Change in Cognitive Function: Coordinated Analyses of Four Longitudinal Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Lindwall

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study used a coordinated analyses approach to examine the association of physical activity and cognitive change in four longitudinal studies. A series of multilevel growth models with physical activity included both as a fixed (between-person and time-varying (within-person predictor of four domains of cognitive function (reasoning, memory, fluency, and semantic knowledge was used. Baseline physical activity predicted fluency, reasoning and memory in two studies. However, there was a consistent pattern of positive relationships between time-specific changes in physical activity and time-specific changes in cognition, controlling for expected linear trajectories over time, across all four studies. This pattern was most evident for the domains of reasoning and fluency.

  9. Medial Temporal Lobe Activity Predicts Successful Relational Memory Binding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2009-01-01

    Previous neuropsychological findings have implicated medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures in retaining object-location relations over the course of short delays, but MTL effects have not always been reported in neuroimaging investigations with similar short-term memory requirements. Here, we used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to test the hypothesis that the hippocampus and related MTL structures support accurate retention of relational memory representations, even across short delays. On every trial, four objects were presented, each in one of nine possible locations of a three-dimensional grid. Participants were to mentally rotate the grid and then maintain the rotated representation in anticipation of a test stimulus: a rendering of the grid, rotated 90° from the original viewpoint. The test stimulus was either a “match” display, in which object-location relations were intact, or a “mismatch” display, in which one object occupied a new, previously unfilled location (mismatch position), or two objects had swapped locations (mismatch swap). Encoding phase activation in anterior and posterior regions of the left hippocampus, and in bilateral perirhinal cortex, predicted subsequent accuracy on the short-term memory decision, as did bilateral posterior hippocampal activity after the test stimulus. Notably, activation in these posterior hippocampal regions was also sensitive to the degree to which object-location bindings were preserved in the test stimulus; activation was greatest for match displays, followed by mismatch-position displays, and finally mismatch-swap displays. These results indicate that the hippocampus and related MTL structures contribute to successful encoding and retrieval of relational information in visual short-term memory. PMID:18171929

  10. Reward prediction-related increases and decreases in tonic neuronal activity of the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken-Ichi eOkada

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The neuromodulators serotonin, acetylcholine, and dopamine have been proposed to play important roles in the execution of movement, control of several forms of attentional behavior, and reinforcement learning. While the response pattern of midbrain dopaminergic neurons and its specific role in reinforcement learning have been revealed, the roles of the other neuromodulators remain elusive. Reportedly, neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus, one major source of serotonin, continually track the state of expectation of future rewards by showing a correlated response to the start of a behavioral task, reward cue presentation, and reward delivery. Here, we show that neurons in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTN, one major source of acetylcholine, showed similar encoding of the expectation of future rewards by a systematic increase or decrease in tonic activity. We recorded and analyzed PPTN neuronal activity in monkeys during a reward conditioned visually guided saccade task. The firing patterns of many PPTN neurons were tonically increased or decreased throughout the task period. The tonic activity pattern of neurons was correlated with their encoding of the predicted reward value; neurons exhibiting an increase or decrease in tonic activity showed higher or lower activity in the large reward-predicted trials, respectively. Tonic activity and reward-related modulation ended around the time of reward delivery. Additionally, some tonic changes in activity started prior to the appearance of the initial stimulus, and were related to the anticipatory fixational behavior. A partially overlapping population of neurons showed both the initial anticipatory response and subsequent predicted reward value-dependent activity modulation by their systematic increase or decrease of tonic activity. These bi-directional reward- and anticipatory behavior-related modulation patterns are suitable for the presumed role of the PPTN in reward processing and

  11. Predicting and preventing the future: actively managing multiple sclerosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hutchinson, Michael

    2012-02-01

    Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has a highly variable clinical course but a number of demographic, clinical and MRI features can guide the clinician in the assessment of disease activity and likely disability outcome. It is also clear that the inflammatory activity in the first five years of relapsing-remitting MS results in the neurodegenerative changes seen in secondary progressive MS 10-15 years later. While conventional first-line disease modifying therapy has an effect on relapses, about one third of patients have a suboptimal response to treatment. With the advent of highly active second-line therapies with their evident marked suppression of inflammation, the clinician now has the tools to manage the course of relapsing-remitting MS more effectively. The development of treatment optimisation recommendations based on the clinical response to first-line therapies can guide the neurologist in more active management of the early course of relapsing-remitting MS, with the aim of preventing both acute inflammatory axonal injury and the neurodegenerative process which leads to secondary progressive MS.

  12. Electrocardiographic changes improve risk prediction in asymptomatic persons age 65 years or above without cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Godsk; Jensen, Jan S; Marott, Jacob L;

    2014-01-01

    : In all, 6,991 participants from the Copenhagen Heart Study attending an examination at age ≥65 years were included. ECG changes were defined as Q waves, ST-segment depression, T-wave changes, ventricular conduction defects, and left ventricular hypertrophy based on the Minnesota code. The primary...... with conventional risk factors. All ECG changes except 1 univariably predicted both endpoints. Event rates of ECG changes versus no ECG changes were respectively 41.4% versus 27.8% and 64.6% versus 50.8%. When added to existing risk scores, ECG changes independently increased the risk of both endpoints. Fatal CVD......BACKGROUND: Risk prediction in elderly patients is increasingly relevant due to longer life expectancy. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine whether electrocardiographic (ECG) changes provide prognostic information incremental to current risk models and to the conventional risk factors. METHODS...

  13. Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randin, Christophe F.; Engler, Robin; Normand, Signe

    2009-01-01

    of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here, we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10 × 10' grid...... in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10 × 10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area......Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates...

  14. Bi-directional SIFT predicts a subset of activating mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, William; Zhang, Yan; Mukhyala, Kiran; Lazarus, Robert A; Zhang, Zemin

    2009-12-14

    Advancements in sequencing technologies have empowered recent efforts to identify polymorphisms and mutations on a global scale. The large number of variations and mutations found in these projects requires high-throughput tools to identify those that are most likely to have an impact on function. Numerous computational tools exist for predicting which mutations are likely to be functional, but none that specifically attempt to identify mutations that result in hyperactivation or gain-of-function. Here we present a modified version of the SIFT (Sorting Intolerant from Tolerant) algorithm that utilizes protein sequence alignments with homologous sequences to identify functional mutations based on evolutionary fitness. We show that this bi-directional SIFT (B-SIFT) is capable of identifying experimentally verified activating mutants from multiple datasets. B-SIFT analysis of large-scale cancer genotyping data identified potential activating mutations, some of which we have provided detailed structural evidence to support. B-SIFT could prove to be a valuable tool for efforts in protein engineering as well as in identification of functional mutations in cancer.

  15. Recognition and prediction of individual and combined muscular activation modes via surface EMG analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Graupe

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses how recognition of individual and combined muscular activation modes (functions and the prediction of intended such modes can be accomplished by identifying parameters of noninvasive surface EMG signals. It outlines the mathematical analysis of surface EMG signal to facilitate such recognition and related prediction, including recognition of intention (in terms of attempts to activate motor functions from the EMG, without accessing the CNS itself, in cases where a patient, say, a high-level amputee does not have the final-activation muscles and joints. The EMG activity thus allows to interpret and recognize CNS commands from minute variations in the parameters of surface EMG signals that record changes in the firing of motor neurons triggering contractions in related muscle fibers. We note that although in popular media this is sometimes referred to as detection of “thoughts”, no thoughts are detected, but only motor-outcomes of thoughts as found in the EMG signal. Examples of concrete cases where such recognition or prediction were accomplished in the author’s lab and in devices that came out of that lab, are given as are references to these in the literature over the last 35 years.

  16. A new statistical tool to predict phenology under climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, P.; Hemerik, L.; Visser, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change will likely affect the phenology of trophic levels differently and thereby disrupt the phenological synchrony between predators and prey. To predict this disruption of the synchrony under different climate change scenarios, good descriptive models for the phenology of the different sp

  17. The prediction of induced activity levels in and around NIMROD

    CERN Document Server

    Hack, R C

    1973-01-01

    Comparisons are reported between measured and predicted levels of induced radioactivity for a number of irradiation conditions. Good agreement was found between experimental measurements and fairly simple methods of prediction developed at CERN.

  18. Chromospheric changes in K stars with activity

    CERN Document Server

    Vieytes, Mariela; Diaz, Rodrigo

    2009-01-01

    We study the differences in chromospheric structure induced in K stars by stellar activity, to expand our previous work for G stars, including the Sun as a star. We selected six stars of spectral type K with 0.82$activity levels. We computed chromospheric models for the stars in the sample, in most cases in two different moments of activity. The models were constructed to obtain the best possible match with the Ca II K and the H$\\beta$ observed profiles. We also computed in detail the net radiative losses for each model to constrain the heating mechanism that can maintain the structure in the atmosphere. We find a strong correlation between these losses and \\Sc, the index generally used as a proxy for activity, as we found for G stars.

  19. Cultural Change, Human Activity, and Cognitive Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauvain, Mary; Munroe, Robert L.

    2012-01-01

    Differential cognitive performance across cultural contexts has been a standard result in comparative research. Here we discuss how societal changes occurring when a small-scale traditional community incorporates elements from industrialized society may contribute to cognitive development, and we illustrate this with an analysis of the cognitive…

  20. Emotionally biased cognitive processes: the weakest link predicts prospective changes in depressive symptom severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everaert, Jonas; Duyck, Wouter; Koster, Ernst H W

    2015-01-01

    Emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are predictive of future depressive symptoms. It remains unknown, however, how these biased cognitive processes interact to predict depressive symptom levels in the long-term. In the present study, we tested the predictive value of two integrative approaches to model relations between multiple biased cognitive processes, namely the additive (i.e., cognitive processes have a cumulative effect) vs. the weakest link (i.e., the dominant pathogenic process is important) model. We also tested whether these integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict prospective changes in depressive symptom severity. At Time 1, participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity and emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory. At Time 2, one year later, participants were reassessed to determine depressive symptom levels and perceived stress. Results revealed that the weakest link model had incremental validity over the additive model in predicting prospective changes in depressive symptoms, though both models explained a significant proportion of variance in the change in depressive symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. None of the integrative models interacted with perceived stress to predict changes in depressive symptomatology. These findings suggest that the best cognitive marker of the evolution in depressive symptoms is the cognitive process that is dominantly biased toward negative material, which operates independent from experienced stress. This highlights the importance of considering idiographic cognitive profiles with multiple cognitive processes for understanding and modifying effects of cognitive biases in depression.

  1. Which Moral Foundations Predict Willingness to Make Lifestyle Changes to Avert Climate Change in the USA?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Janis L.; McLeod, Poppy; Bloomfield, Robert; Allred, Shorna

    2016-01-01

    Jonathan Haidt’s Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection (ΔAICc__). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA. PMID:27760207

  2. The motivation to be sedentary predicts weight change when sedentary behaviors are reduced

    OpenAIRE

    Paluch Rocco A; Cavanaugh Meghan D; Roemmich James N; Epstein Leonard H

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Obesity is correlated with a sedentary lifestyle, and the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with obesity. The present study tests the hypothesis that the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with weight change when children reduce their sedentary behavior. Methods The motivation to be active or sedentary, changes in weight, and accelerometer assessed physical activity were collected for 55 families with overweight/obese children who participa...

  3. Performance prediction for Grid workflow activities based on features-ranked RBF network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Jie; Duan Rubing; Farrukh Nadeem

    2009-01-01

    Accurate performance prediction of Grid workflow activities can help Grid schedulers map activities to appropriate Grid sites. This paper describes an approach based on features-ranked RBF neural network to predict the performance of Grid workflow activities. Experimental results for two kinds of real world Grid workflow activities are presented to show effectiveness of our approach.

  4. Predictive active disturbance rejection control for processes with time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qinling; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2014-07-01

    Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) has been shown to be an effective tool in dealing with real world problems of dynamic uncertainties, disturbances, nonlinearities, etc. This paper addresses its existing limitations with plants that have a large transport delay. In particular, to overcome the delay, the extended state observer (ESO) in ADRC is modified to form a predictive ADRC, leading to significant improvements in the transient response and stability characteristics, as shown in extensive simulation studies and hardware-in-the-loop tests, as well as in the frequency response analysis. In this research, it is assumed that the amount of delay is approximately known, as is the approximated model of the plant. Even with such uncharacteristic assumptions for ADRC, the proposed method still exhibits significant improvements in both performance and robustness over the existing methods such as the dead-time compensator based on disturbance observer and the Filtered Smith Predictor, in the context of some well-known problems of chemical reactor and boiler control problems.

  5. Electrophysiological correlates of competitor activation predict retrieval-induced forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellerstedt, Robin; Johansson, Mikael

    2014-06-01

    The very act of retrieval modifies the accessibility of memory for knowledge and past events and can also cause forgetting. A prominent theory of such retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) holds that retrieval recruits inhibition to overcome interference from competing memories, rendering these memories inaccessible. The present study tested a fundamental tenet of the inhibitory-control account: The competition-dependence assumption. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants engaged in a competitive retrieval task. Competition levels were manipulated within the retrieval task by varying the cue-item associative strength of competing items. In order to temporally separate ERP correlates of competitor activation and target retrieval, memory was probed with the sequential presentation of 2 cues: A category cue, to reactivate competitors, and a target cue. As predicted by the inhibitory-control account, competitors with strong compared with weak cue-competitor association were more susceptible to forgetting. Furthermore, competition-sensitive ERP modulations, elicited by the category cue, were observed over anterior regions and reflected individual differences in ensuing forgetting. The present study demonstrates ERP correlates of the reactivation of tightly bound associated memories (the competitors) and provides support for the inhibitory-control account of RIF.

  6. Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhen-Wei Xia; Wen-Pu Zhou; Wen-Jun Cui; Xue-Hong Zhang; Qing-Xiang Shen; Yun-Zhu Li; Shan-Chang Yu

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1)and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (△hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities.METHODS: Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physicalchemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5α. Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured.RESULTS: rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of △hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1.CONCLUSION: Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. △hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. △hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

  7. Does change in temperament predict change in schizoid personality disorder? A methodological framework and illustration from the Longitudinal Study of Personality Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzenweger, Mark F; Willett, John B

    2009-01-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) have been thought historically to be enduring, inflexible, and set in psychological stone relatively firmly; however, empirical findings from recent prospective multiwave longitudinal studies establish otherwise. Nearly all modern longitudinal studies of personality disorder have documented considerable change in PDs over time, suggesting considerable flexibility and plasticity in this realm of psychopathology. The factors and mechanisms of change in the PDs remain essentially opaque, and this area of PD research is just beginning to be probed using candidate predictors of change, such as personality systems. In this report, we investigate whether change in temperament dimensions (emotionality, activity, and sociability) predicts change in schizoid personality disorder. We present a latent growth framework for addressing this question and provide an illustration of the approach using data from the Longitudinal Study of Personality Disorders. Schizoid personality disorder was assessed using two different methodologies (structured psychiatric interview and self-report) and temperament was assessed using a well-known psychometric measure of temperament. All constructs were measured at three time points over a 4-year time period. To analyze these panel data, we fitted a covariance structure model that hypothesized simultaneous relationships between initial levels and rates of change in temperament and initial levels and rates of change in schizoid personality disorder. We found that rates of change in the core temperament dimensions studied do not predict rates of change in schizoid personality over time. We discuss the methodological advantages of the latent growth approach and the substantive meaning of the findings for change in schizoid personality disorder.

  8. Physics-based enzyme design: predicting binding affinity and catalytic activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirin, Sarah; Pearlman, David A; Sherman, Woody

    2014-12-01

    Computational enzyme design is an emerging field that has yielded promising success stories, but where numerous challenges remain. Accurate methods to rapidly evaluate possible enzyme design variants could provide significant value when combined with experimental efforts by reducing the number of variants needed to be synthesized and speeding the time to reach the desired endpoint of the design. To that end, extending our computational methods to model the fundamental physical-chemical principles that regulate activity in a protocol that is automated and accessible to a broad population of enzyme design researchers is essential. Here, we apply a physics-based implicit solvent MM-GBSA scoring approach to enzyme design and benchmark the computational predictions against experimentally determined activities. Specifically, we evaluate the ability of MM-GBSA to predict changes in affinity for a steroid binder protein, catalytic turnover for a Kemp eliminase, and catalytic activity for α-Gliadin peptidase variants. Using the enzyme design framework developed here, we accurately rank the most experimentally active enzyme variants, suggesting that this approach could provide enrichment of active variants in real-world enzyme design applications.

  9. Who will increase their physical activity? Predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutton Stephen

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim was to identify predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort to improve understanding of factors influencing change in physical activity. Methods ProActive is a physical activity promotion trial that took place in Eastern England (1999-2004. 365 offspring of people with type 2 diabetes underwent measurement of physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE using heart rate monitoring, fitness, and anthropometric and biochemical status at baseline and 1 year (n = 321. Linear regression was used to quantify the associations between baseline demographic, clinical, psychosocial and behavioural variables and change in PAEE over 12 months. This study is registered as ISRCTN61323766. Results ProActive participants significantly increased their PAEE by 0.6 kj/min (SD 4.2, p = 0.006 over one year, the equivalent of around 20 minutes brisk walking/day. Male sex and higher fitness at baseline predicted increase in PAEE. No significant associations were found for any other variables. Very few baseline demographic, clinical, psychosocial and behavioural predictors were associated with change in objectively measured physical activity. Conclusions Traditional baseline determinants of self-reported physical activity targeted by behavioural interventions may be relatively weak predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of factors influencing change in physical activity to inform the development and targeting of interventions.

  10. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng, Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  11. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng, Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2016-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  12. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L.L.; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng , Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  13. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L.L.; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Alhusseini, Tamera I.; Bedford, Felicity E.; Bennett, Dominic J.; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J.; Chng , Charlotte W. T.; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L.P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and ...

  14. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E

    2013-01-19

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.

  15. Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yongfei

    2003-01-01

    Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification. These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and low-18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1) did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.

  16. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  17. Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; White, Joseph D.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Cade, Brian S.; Zygo, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predictive ability, conservation relevance of associations may not be clear without also knowing the magnitude and variability of predicted changes in response variables. 2. We introduce a method for evaluating the conservation relevance of organism–environment relations that employs confidence intervals for predicted changes in response variables. The confidence intervals are compared to a preselected magnitude of change that marks a threshold (trigger) for conservation action. To demonstrate the approach, we used a case study from the Chihuahuan Desert involving relations between avian richness and broad-scale patterns of shrubland. We considered relations for three winters and two spatial extents (1- and 2-km-radius areas) and compared predicted changes in richness to three thresholds (10%, 20% and 30% change). For each threshold, we examined 48 relations. 3. The method identified seven, four and zero conservation-relevant changes in mean richness for the 10%, 20% and 30% thresholds respectively. These changes were associated with major (20%) changes in shrubland cover, mean patch size, the coefficient of variation for patch size, or edge density but not with major changes in shrubland patch density. The relative rarity of conservation-relevant changes indicated that, overall, the relations had little practical value for informing conservation decisions about avian richness. 4. The approach we illustrate is appropriate for various response and predictor variables measured at any temporal or spatial scale. The method is broadly applicable across ecological

  18. Activism or "Slacktivism?": Digital Media and Organizing for Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Cerise L.

    2015-01-01

    The influence of social media and technological developments has changed how groups and organizations advocating for social change generate awareness and participation in their causes. In this single class activity students will (a) analyze notions of activism and "slacktivism" from scholarly and popular sources to apply these concepts…

  19. Analysis Of The Method Of Predictive Control Applicable To Active Magnetic Suspension Systems Of Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurnyta-Mazurek Paulina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional controllers are usually synthesized on the basis of already known parameters associated with the model developed for the object to be controlled. However, sometimes it proves extremely difficult or even infeasible to find out these parameters, in particular when they subject to changes during the exploitation lifetime. If so, much more sophisticated control methods have to be applied, e.g. the method of predictive control. Thus, the paper deals with application of the predictive control approach to follow-up tracking of an active magnetic suspension where the mathematical and simulation models for such a control system are disclosed with preliminary results from simulation investigations of the control system in question.

  20. Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean; Shrestha, Sourya; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Vuong, Holly

    2012-05-07

    Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

  1. A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Hall, Edward K.

    2012-01-01

    As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

  2. Predicting habitat suitability and geographic distribution of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) due to climate change in the coastal areas off Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Claudio; Andrade, Isabel; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Hormazabal, Samuel; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio; Böhm, Gabriela

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change on ocean conditions will have impacts on fish stocks, primarily through physiological and behavioural effects, such as changes in growth, reproduction, mortality and distribution. Habitat and distribution predictions for marine fishery species under climate change scenarios are important for understanding the overall impacts of such global changes on the human society and on the ecosystem. In this study, we examine the impacts of climate change on anchovy fisheries off Chile using predicted changes in global models according to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) and IPCC high future CO2 emission scenario A2, habitat suitability index (HSI) models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. Predictions of chlorophyll-a were developed using historical Chl-a and SST (2003-2013) satellite data and applying a harmonic model. The results show an increase in SST of up to 2.5 °C by 2055 in the north and central-south area for an A2 scenario. The habitat suitability index model was developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly fisheries and environmental data. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as an abundance index in developing the HSI models and was calculated as the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (m3) in a 10‧ × 10‧ fishing grid square of anchovy, integrated over one month of fishing activity. The environmental data included the distance to coast (DC), thermal (SST) and food availability (Chl-a) conditions. The HSI modelling consists of estimating SI curves based on available evidence regarding the optimum range of environmental conditions for anchovy and estimating an integrated HSI using the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) method. The

  3. Predicting mountain lion activity using radiocollars equipped with mercury tip-sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janis, Michael W.; Clark, Joseph D.; Johnson, Craig

    1999-01-01

    Radiotelemetry collars with tip-sensors have long been used to monitor wildlife activity. However, comparatively few researchers have tested the reliability of the technique on the species being studied. To evaluate the efficacy of using tip-sensors to assess mountain lion (Puma concolor) activity, we radiocollared 2 hand-reared mountain lions and simultaneously recorded their behavior and the associated telemetry signal characteristics. We noted both the number of pulse-rate changes and the percentage of time the transmitter emitted a fast pulse rate (i.e., head up) within sampling intervals ranging from 1-5 minutes. Based on 27 hours of observations, we were able to correctly distinguish between active and inactive behaviors >93% of the time using a logistic regression model. We present several models to predict activity of mountain lions; the selection of which to us would depend on study objectives and logistics. Our results indicate that field protocols that use only pulse-rate changes to indicate activity can lead to significant classification errors.

  4. Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Kissling, W. D.; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.; Heyder, U.; Böhning-Gaese, K

    2010-01-01

    Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climat...

  5. Dynamic Changes of Nitrate Reductase Activity within 24 Hours

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the circadian rhythm of nitrate re- ductase activity (NRA) in plant. [Method] The wheat plants at heading stage were used as the materials for the measurement of dynamic changes of nitrate reductase activity (NRA) within 24 h under the conditions of constant high temperature. [Resulti The fluctuation of NRA in wheat changed greatly from 20:00 pm to 11:00 am. The enzyme activity remained constant, but at 14:00 the enzyme activity was the high- est, higher than all the other time points except the enzyme activity measured at11:00. The enzyme activity was the lowest of 17:00, which was lower than all the other time points except the enzyme activity measured at 2:00. [Conclusion] There were autonomous rhythm changes of NRA in wheat in a certain degree.

  6. [Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

    2013-05-01

    Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

  7. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

  8. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O($10^5$) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO$_2$ using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patter...

  9. The Predictive Utility of Hypnotizability: The Change in Suggestibility Produced by Hypnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milling, Leonard S.; Coursen, Elizabeth L.; Shores, Jessica S.; Waszkiewicz, Jolanta A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The predictive utility of hypnotizability, conceptualized as the change in suggestibility produced by a hypnotic induction, was investigated in the suggested reduction of experimental pain. Method: One hundred and seventy-three participants were assessed for nonhypnotic imaginative suggestibility. Thereafter, participants experienced…

  10. Burrowing Behavior of a Deposit Feeding Bivalve Predicts Change in Intertidal Ecosystem State

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, T.J.; Bodnar, W.; Koolhaas, A.; Dekinga, A.; Holthuijsen, S.; Ten Horn, J.; McSweeney, N.; van Gils, J.A.; Piersma, T,

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  11. Burrowing behavior of a deposit feeding bivalve predicts change in intertidal ecosystem state

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Bodnar, Wanda; Koolhaas, Anita; Dekinga, Anne; Holthuijsen, Sander; ten Horn, Job; McSweeney, Niamh; van Gils, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2016-01-01

    Behavior has a predictive power that is often underutilized as a tool for signaling ecological change. The burrowing behavior of the deposit feeding bivalve Macoma balthica reflects a typical food-safety trade-off. The choice to live close to the sediment surface comes at a risk of predation and is

  12. Predicting Changes in Cultural Sensitivity among Students of Spanish during Short-Term Study Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinsen, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs of less than a semester are becoming increasingly popular among undergraduate students in the United States. However, little research has examined the changes in students' cultural sensitivity through their participation in such programs or what factors may predict growth and improvement in such areas. This study…

  13. Predicted soil management and climate change effects on SOC in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extensive use of inversion tillage has contributed to the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) and degraded soil health in the southeast U.S.A. Our objective was to predict changes in SOC in a Norfolk loamy sand in Florence, SC under several crop rotations (corn (Zea mays L.)-cotton (Gossypium ssp.), C...

  14. Emotion regulation predicts change of perceived health in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Middendorp, H; Geenen, R; Sorbi, MJ; van Doornen, LJP; Bijlsma, JWJ

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: To examine whether emotion regulation predicts change of perceived health in patients with rheumatoid arthritis ( RA). Methods: Sixty six patients ( 44 female, 22 male; mean (SD) age 57.7 (11.6) years) participated in a prospective study. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to pred

  15. Fat or lean: adjustment of endogenous energy stores to predictable and unpredictable changes in allostatic load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultner, Jannik; Kitaysky, Alexander S.; Welcker, Jorg; Hatch, Scott

    2013-01-01

    1. The ability to store energy endogenously is an important ecological mechanism that allows animals to buffer predictable and unpredictable variation in allostatic load. The secretion of glucocorticoids, which reflects changes in allostatic load, is suggested to play a major role in the adjustment of endogenous stores to these varying conditions.

  16. Steps/day ability to predict anthropometric changes is not affected by its plausibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    We evaluated whether treating steps/day data for implausible values (30,000) affected the ability of these data to predict intervention-induced anthropometric (waist circumference, body mass index, percent body fat, and fat mass) changes. Data were from 269 African American participants wh...

  17. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C Sudhakar Reddy; Sonali Singh; V K Dadhwal; C S Jha; N Rama Rao; P G Diwakar

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km², which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880–2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multilayer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  18. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  19. In vitro anti-Mycobacterium avium activities of quinolones: predicted active structures and mechanistic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopman, G; Li, J Y; Wang, S; Pearson, A J; Chang, K; Jacobs, M R; Bajaksouzian, S; Ellner, J J

    1994-08-01

    The relationship between the structures of quinolones and their anti-Mycobacterium avium activities has been previously derived by using the Multiple Computer-Automated Structure Evaluation program. A number of substructural constraints required to overcome the resistance of most of the strains have been identified. Nineteen new quinolones which qualify under these substructural requirements were identified by the program and subsequently tested. The results show that the substructural attributes identified by the program produced a successful a priori prediction of the anti-M. avium activities of the new quinolones. All 19 quinolones were found to be active, and 4 of them are as active or better than ciprofloxacin. With these new quinolones, the updated multiple computer-automated structure evaluation program structure-activity relationship analysis has helped to uncover additional information about the nature of the substituents at the C5 and C7 positions needed for optimal inhibitory activity. A possible explanation of drug resistance based on the observation of suicide inactivation of bacterial cytochrome P-450 by the cyclopropylamine moiety has also been proposed and is discussed in this report. Furthermore, we confirm the view that the amount of the uncharged form present in a neutral pH solution plays a crucial role in the drug's penetration ability.

  20. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  1. Activity changes of the cat paraventricular hypothalamus during stressor exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Pilgaard; Rector, David M; Poe, Gina R

    2004-01-01

    Dorso-medial paraventricular hypothalamus (PVH) activity was assessed by light scattering procedures in freely behaving cats during auditory stressor exposure. Acoustic noise (> 95dB) raised plasma ACTH concentrations, somatic muscle tonus, respiratory frequency and cardiac rates; PVH activity...... and nadir. Isolated pixels appeared opposite in activity pattern to overall changes. We suggest that transient activity increases represent initial PVH neural stress responses, and that subsequent profound declines result from neural inhibitory feedback....

  2. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brun, Philipp; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla; Payne, Mark R

    2016-09-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one of the longest running and most extensive marine biological monitoring programs, to investigate the reliability of predicted plankton distributions. We apply three commonly used SDMs to 20 representative plankton species, including copepods, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, all found in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. We fit the models to decadal subsets of the full (1958-2012) dataset, and then use them to predict both forward and backward in time, comparing the model predictions against the corresponding observations. The probability of correctly predicting presence was low, peaking at 0.5 for copepods, and model skill typically did not outperform a null model assuming distributions to be constant in time. The predicted prevalence increasingly differed from the observed prevalence for predictions with more distance in time from their training dataset. More detailed investigations based on four focal species revealed that strong spatial variations in skill exist, with the least skill at the edges of the distributions, where prevalence is lowest. Furthermore, the scores of traditional single-value model performance metrics were contrasting and some implied overoptimistic conclusions about model skill. Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change.

  3. Predicting enhancer activity and variant impact using gkm-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Michael A

    2017-01-25

    We participated in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation eQTL challenge to further test computational models of regulatory variant impact and their association with human disease. Our prediction model is based on a discriminative gapped-kmer SVM (gkm-SVM) trained on genome-wide chromatin accessibility data in the cell type of interest. The comparisons with massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA) in lymphoblasts show that gkm-SVM is among the most accurate prediction models even though all other models used the MPRA data for model training, and gkm-SVM did not. In addition, we compare gkm-SVM with other MPRA datasets and show that gkm-SVM is a reliable predictor of expression and that deltaSVM is a reliable predictor of variant impact in K562 cells and mouse retina. We further show that DHS (DNase-I hypersensitive sites) and ATAC-seq (assay for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing) data are equally predictive substrates for training gkm-SVM, and that DHS regions flanked by H3K27Ac and H3K4me1 marks are more predictive than DHS regions alone.

  4. Physics-Based Predictions for Coherent Change Detection Using X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Preiss

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model is developed to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The model is derived using a dyadic form for surface reflectivity in the Kirchhoff approximation. This permits the combination of Kirchhoff theory and spotlight synthetic aperture radar (SAR image formation theory. The resulting model is used to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The theoretical model is applied to SAR images formed before and after surface changes observed by a repeat-pass SAR system. The change in surface associated with a tyre track following vehicle passage is modelled and SAR coherency estimates are obtained. Predicted coherency distributions for both the change and no-change scenarios are used to estimate receiver operator curves for the detection of the changes using a high-resolution, X-band SAR system.

  5. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  6. USGS "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" Project: Crowd-Tagging Aerial Photographs to Improve Coastal Change Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S. B.; Poore, B. S.; Plant, N. G.; Stockdon, H. F.; Morgan, K.; Snell, R.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring oblique aerial photographs of the coast before and after major storms since 1995 and has amassed a database of over 140,000 photographs of the Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific coasts. USGS coastal scientists use these photographs to document and characterize coastal change caused by storms. The images can also be used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models of coastal erosion. However, the USGS does not have the personnel to manually analyze all of the photographs taken after a storm. Also, computers cannot yet automatically identify damages and geomorphic changes to the coast from the oblique aerial photographs. There is a high public interest in accessing the limited number of pre- and post-storm photographic pairs the USGS is currently able to share. Recent federal policies that encourage open data and open innovation initiatives have resulted in many federal agencies developing new ways of using citizen science and crowdsourcing techniques to share data and collaborate with the public to accomplish large tasks. The USGS launched a crowdsourcing application in June 2014 called "iCoast - Did the Coast Change?" (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/icoast) to allow citizens to help USGS scientists identify changes to the coast by comparing USGS aerial photographs taken before and after storms, and then selecting pre-defined tags like "dune scarp" and "sand on road." The tags are accompanied by text definitions and pictorial examples of these coastal morphology terms and serve to informally and passively educate users about coastal hazards. The iCoast application facilitates greater citizen awareness of coastal change and is an educational resource for teachers and students interested in learning about coastal vulnerability. We expect that the citizen observations from iCoast will assist with probabilistic model development to produce more accurate predictions of coastal vulnerability.

  7. Comparison of an Imaging Software and Manual Prediction of Soft Tissue Changes after Orthognathic Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Ahmad Akhoundi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Accurate prediction of the surgical outcome is important in treating dentofacial deformities. Visualized treatment objectives usually involve manual surgical simulation based on tracing of cephalometric radiographs. Recent technical advancements have led to the use of computer assisted imaging systems in treatment planning for orthognathic surgical cases. The purpose of this study was to examine and compare the ability and reliability of digitization using Dolphin Imaging Software with traditional manual techniques and to compare orthognathic prediction with actual outcomes.Materials and Methods: Forty patients consisting of 35 women and 5 men (32 class III and 8 class II with no previous surgery were evaluated by manual tracing and indirect digitization using Dolphin Imaging Software. Reliability of each method was assessed then the two techniques were compared using paired t test.Result: The nasal tip presented the least predicted error and higher reliability. The least accurate regions in vertical plane were subnasal and upper lip, and subnasal and pogonion in horizontal plane. There were no statistically significant differences between the predictions of groups with and without genioplasty.Conclusion: Computer-generated image prediction was suitable for patient education and communication. However, efforts are still needed to improve accuracy and reliability of the prediction program and to include changes in soft tissue tension and muscle strain.

  8. Serial Change in Cervical Length for the Prediction of Emergency Cesarean Section in Placenta Previa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Eun Shin

    Full Text Available To evaluate whether serial change in cervical length (CL over time can be a predictor for emergency cesarean section (CS in patients with placenta previa.This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with placenta previa between January 2010 and November 2014. All women were offered serial measurement of CL by transvaginal ultrasound at 19 to 23 weeks (CL1, 24 to 28 weeks (CL2, 29 to 31 weeks (CL3, and 32 to 34 weeks (CL4. We compared clinical characteristics, serial change in CL, and outcomes between the emergency CS group (case group and elective CS group (control group. The predictive value of change in CL for emergency CS was evaluated.A total of 93 women were evaluated; 31 had emergency CS due to massive vaginal bleeding. CL tended to decrease with advancing gestational age in each group. Until 29-31 weeks, CL showed no significant differences between the two groups, but after that, CL in the emergency CS group decreased abruptly, even though CL in the elective CS group continued to gradually decrease. On multivariate analysis to determine risk factors, only admissions for bleeding (odds ratio, 34.710; 95% CI, 5.239-229.973 and change in CL (odds ratio, 3.522; 95% CI, 1.210-10.253 were significantly associated with emergency CS. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that change in CL could be the predictor of emergency CS (area under the curve 0.734, p < 0.001, with optimal cutoff for predicting emergency cesarean delivery of 6.0 mm.Previous admission for vaginal bleeding and change in CL are independent predictors of emergency CS in placenta previa. Women with change in CL more than 6 mm between the second and third trimester are at high risk of emergency CS in placenta previa. Single measurements of short CL at the second or third trimester do not seem to predict emergency CS.

  9. Factors Predicting Physical Activity Among Children With Special Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Yazdani, MD

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Obesity is especially prevalent among children with special needs. Both lack of physical activity and unhealthful eating are major contributing factors. The objective of our study was to investigate barriers to physical activity among these children. Methods We surveyed parents of the 171 children attending Vista Del Mar School in Los Angeles, a nonprofit school serving a socioeconomically diverse group of children with special needs from kindergarten through 12th grade. Parents were asked about their child’s and their own physical activity habits, barriers to their child’s exercise, and demographics. The response rate was 67%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine predictors of children being physically active at least 3 hours per week. Results Parents reported that 45% of the children were diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, 38% with autism, and 34% with learning disabilities; 47% of children and 56% of parents were physically active less than 3 hours per week. The top barriers to physical activity were reported as child’s lack of interest (43%, lack of developmentally appropriate programs (33%, too many behavioral problems (32%, and parents’ lack of time (29%. However, child’s lack of interest was the only parent-reported barrier independently associated with children’s physical activity. Meanwhile, children whose parents were physically active at least 3 hours per week were 4.2 times as likely to be physically active as children whose parents were less physically active (P = .01. Conclusion In this group of students with special needs, children’s physical activity was strongly associated with parental physical activity; parent-reported barriers may have had less direct effect. Further studies should examine the importance of parental physical activity among children with special needs.

  10. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  11. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2017-02-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  12. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  13. Bureaucratic Activism and Radical School Change in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niesz, Tricia; Krishnamurthy, Ramchandar

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, Activity Based Learning (ABL), a child-centered, activity-based method of pedagogical practice, transformed classrooms in all of the over 37,000 primary-level government schools in Tamil Nadu, India. The large scale, rapid pace, and radical nature of educational change sets the ABL initiative apart from most school reform efforts.…

  14. Seasonal prediction of lightning activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-scale versus local drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Á. G.; Díaz-Lobatón, J.; Chourio, X.; Stock, M. J.

    2016-05-01

    The Lake Maracaibo Basin in North Western Venezuela has the highest annual lightning rate of any place in the world (~ 200 fl km- 2 yr- 1), whose electrical discharges occasionally impact human and animal lives (e.g., cattle) and frequently affect economic activities like oil and natural gas exploitation. Lightning activity is so common in this region that it has a proper name: Catatumbo Lightning (plural). Although short-term lightning forecasts are now common in different parts of the world, to the best of the authors' knowledge, seasonal prediction of lightning activity is still non-existent. This research discusses the relative role of both large-scale and local climate drivers as modulators of lightning activity in the region, and presents a formal predictability study at seasonal scale. Analysis of the Catatumbo Lightning Regional Mode, defined in terms of the second Empirical Orthogonal Function of monthly Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS-TRMM) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite data for North Western South America, permits the identification of potential predictors at seasonal scale via a Canonical Correlation Analysis. Lightning activity in North Western Venezuela responds to well defined sea-surface temperature patterns (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode) and changes in the low-level meridional wind field that are associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and tropical cyclone activity, but it is also linked to local drivers like convection triggered by the topographic configuration and the effect of the Maracaibo Basin Nocturnal Low Level Jet. The analysis indicates that at seasonal scale the relative contribution of the large-scale drivers is more important than the local (basin-wide) ones, due to the synoptic control imposed by the former. Furthermore, meridional CAPE transport at 925 mb is identified as the best potential predictor for lightning activity in the Lake

  15. GABAA receptors in visual and auditory cortex and neural activity changes during basic visual stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengmin eQin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent imaging studies have demonstrated that levels of resting GABA in the visual cortex predict the degree of stimulus-induced activity in the same region. These studies have used the presentation of discrete visual stimulus; the change from closed eyes to open also represents a simple visual stimulus, however, and has been shown to induce changes in local brain activity and in functional connectivity between regions. We thus aimed to investigate the role of the GABA system, specifically GABAA receptors, in the changes in brain activity between the eyes closed (EC and eyes open (EO state in order to provide detail at the receptor level to complement previous studies of GABA concentrations. We conducted an fMRI study involving two different modes of the change from EC to EO: An EO and EC block design, allowing the modelling of the haemodynamic response, followed by longer periods of EC and EO to allow the measuring of functional connectivity. The same subjects also underwent [18F]Flumazenil PET measure GABAA receptor binding potentials. It was demonstrated that the local-to-global ratio of GABAA receptor binding potential in the visual cortex predicted the degree of changes in neural activity from EC to EO. This same relationship was also shown in the auditory cortex. Furthermore, the local-to-global ratio of GABAA receptor binding potential in the visual cortex also predicts the change of functional connectivity between visual and auditory cortex from EC to EO. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of GABAA receptors in stimulus-induced neural activity in local regions and in inter-regional functional connectivity.

  16. Activity changes of the cat paraventricular hypothalamus during stressor exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Morten P; Rector, David M; Poe, Gina R; Harper, Ronald M

    2004-01-19

    Dorso-medial paraventricular hypothalamus (PVH) activity was assessed by light scattering procedures in freely behaving cats during auditory stressor exposure. Acoustic noise (> 95dB) raised plasma ACTH concentrations, somatic muscle tonus, respiratory frequency and cardiac rates; PVH activity peaked 0.8s following stimulation, and then markedly declined below baseline to a trough at 9.7s. Hypothalamic responses were not uniformly distributed across the recorded PVH field. Activity changes emerged from subregions within the visualized area, and were widespread at the overall activity zenith and nadir. Isolated pixels appeared opposite in activity pattern to overall changes. We suggest that transient activity increases represent initial PVH neural stress responses, and that subsequent profound declines result from neural inhibitory feedback.

  17. Measuring disease activity to predict therapeutic outcome in Graves' ophthalmopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwee, C.B.; Prummel, M.F.; Gerding, M.N.; Kahaly, G.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Wiersinga, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The concept of disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) might explain why as many as one-third of patients do not respond to immunosuppressive treatment, because only patients in the active stage of disease are expected to respond. The hypothesis was adopted that a parameter used t

  18. Tire Changes, Fresh Air, and Yellow Flags: Challenges in Predictive Analytics for Professional Racing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulabandhula, Theja; Rudin, Cynthia

    2014-06-01

    Our goal is to design a prediction and decision system for real-time use during a professional car race. In designing a knowledge discovery process for racing, we faced several challenges that were overcome only when domain knowledge of racing was carefully infused within statistical modeling techniques. In this article, we describe how we leveraged expert knowledge of the domain to produce a real-time decision system for tire changes within a race. Our forecasts have the potential to impact how racing teams can optimize strategy by making tire-change decisions to benefit their rank position. Our work significantly expands previous research on sports analytics, as it is the only work on analytical methods for within-race prediction and decision making for professional car racing.

  19. Detection of cardiac activity changes from human speech

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovarek, Jaromir; Partila, Pavol; Voznak, Miroslav; Mikulec, Martin; Mehic, Miralem

    2015-05-01

    Impact of changes in blood pressure and pulse from human speech is disclosed in this article. The symptoms of increased physical activity are pulse, systolic and diastolic pressure. There are many methods of measuring and indicating these parameters. The measurements must be carried out using devices which are not used in everyday life. In most cases, the measurement of blood pressure and pulse following health problems or other adverse feelings. Nowadays, research teams are trying to design and implement modern methods in ordinary human activities. The main objective of the proposal is to reduce the delay between detecting the adverse pressure and to the mentioned warning signs and feelings. Common and frequent activity of man is speaking, while it is known that the function of the vocal tract can be affected by the change in heart activity. Therefore, it can be a useful parameter for detecting physiological changes. A method for detecting human physiological changes by speech processing and artificial neural network classification is described in this article. The pulse and blood pressure changes was induced by physical exercises in this experiment. The set of measured subjects was formed by ten healthy volunteers of both sexes. None of the subjects was a professional athlete. The process of the experiment was divided into phases before, during and after physical training. Pulse, systolic, diastolic pressure was measured and voice activity was recorded after each of them. The results of this experiment describe a method for detecting increased cardiac activity from human speech using artificial neural network.

  20. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We...... with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size...... in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting...

  1. Climate change forecasts, long-term spatio-temporal prediction and the resilience of dry ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafran-Natan, Rakefet; Svoray, Tal; Avi, Perevolotsky

    2010-05-01

    Primary production is an important indicator to climatic changes in drylands, while reduction in productivity has many consequences on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change should lead to a change in spatial patterns of grasses without a substantial change in ecosystem resilience. We used field data and a recently published spatio-temporally explicit model to study factors affecting long-term variation in primary production in two dry ecosystems: semi-arid (SAE) and Mediterranean (DME) dominated by annual vegetation. The model was operated in both patch and landscape scales and was executed along 30 years (1979-2008) at SAE and along 21 years (1986-1990; 1993-2008) at DME. Model predictions were validated against samples that were harvested in each site at the end of the growing season, over 15 seasons (1994-2008) at SAE (0.63

  2. Performance Prediction of Active Piezo Fiber Rackets in Terms of Tennis Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawazoe, Yoshihiko; Takeda, Yukihiro; Nakagawa, Masamichi

    Several former top players sent a letter to the International Tennis Federation (ITF) encouraging the governing body to revisit the question of rackets. In the letter, the players wrote that racket technology has led to major changes in how the game is played at the top level. This paper investigated the physical properties of a new type of racket with active piezoelectric fibers appeared recently in the market, and predicted the various factors associated with the frontal impact, such as impact force, contact time, deformation of ball and strings, and also estimated the racket performance such as the coefficient of restitution, the rebound power coefficient, the post-impact ball velocity and the sweet areas relevant to the power in tennis. It is based on the experimental identification of the dynamics of the ball-racket-arm system and the approximate nonlinear impact analysis with a simple swing model. The predicted results with forehand stroke model can explain the difference in mechanism of performance between the new type racket with active piezoelectric fibers and the conventional passive representative rackets. It showed that this new type racket provides higher coefficient of restitution on the whole area of string face and also gives larger rebound power coefficients particularly at the topside and bigger powers on the whole area of string face but the difference was not so large. It seems that the racket-related improvements in play are relatively small and the players themselves continue to improve, accordingly there is a gap between a perception and reality.

  3. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla;

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change....... Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against...

  4. Predicting short-term weight loss using four leading health behavior change theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barata José T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was conceived to analyze how exercise and weight management psychosocial variables, derived from several health behavior change theories, predict weight change in a short-term intervention. The theories under analysis were the Social Cognitive Theory, the Transtheoretical Model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Self-Determination Theory. Methods Subjects were 142 overweight and obese women (BMI = 30.2 ± 3.7 kg/m2; age = 38.3 ± 5.8y, participating in a 16-week University-based weight control program. Body weight and a comprehensive psychometric battery were assessed at baseline and at program's end. Results Weight decreased significantly (-3.6 ± 3.4%, p Conclusion The present models were able to predict 20–30% of variance in short-term weight loss and changes in weight management self-efficacy accounted for a large share of the predictive power. As expected from previous studies, exercise variables were only moderately associated with short-term outcomes; they are expected to play a larger explanatory role in longer-term results.

  5. Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiran Han

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

  6. A data mining based approach to predict spatiotemporal changes in satellite images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulila, W.; Farah, I. R.; Ettabaa, K. Saheb; Solaiman, B.; Ghézala, H. Ben

    2011-06-01

    The interpretation of remotely sensed images in a spatiotemporal context is becoming a valuable research topic. However, the constant growth of data volume in remote sensing imaging makes reaching conclusions based on collected data a challenging task. Recently, data mining appears to be a promising research field leading to several interesting discoveries in various areas such as marketing, surveillance, fraud detection and scientific discovery. By integrating data mining and image interpretation techniques, accurate and relevant information (i.e. functional relation between observed parcels and a set of informational contents) can be automatically elicited. This study presents a new approach to predict spatiotemporal changes in satellite image databases. The proposed method exploits fuzzy sets and data mining concepts to build predictions and decisions for several remote sensing fields. It takes into account imperfections related to the spatiotemporal mining process in order to provide more accurate and reliable information about land cover changes in satellite images. The proposed approach is validated using SPOT images representing the Saint-Denis region, capital of Reunion Island. Results show good performances of the proposed framework in predicting change for the urban zone.

  7. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.;

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...

  8. Method of empirical dependences in estimation and prediction of activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeeva, Tatiana F.; Moshkova, Albina N.; Erlykina, Elena I.; Khvatova, Elena M.

    2016-04-01

    Creatine kinase is a key enzyme of energy metabolism in the brain. There are known cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase isoenzymes. Mitochondrial creatine kinase exists as a mixture of two oligomeric forms - dimer and octamer. The aim of investigation was to study catalytic properties of cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase and using of the method of empirical dependences for the possible prediction of the activity of these enzymes in cerebral ischemia. Ischemia was revealed to be accompanied with the changes of the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes and oligomeric state of mitochondrial isoform. There were made the models of multiple regression that permit to study the activity of creatine kinase system in cerebral ischemia using a calculating method. Therefore, the mathematical method of empirical dependences can be applied for estimation and prediction of the functional state of the brain by the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia.

  9. Changes in physical activity and all-cause mortality in COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaes, Anouk W; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Marott, Jacob L; Benet, Marta; Groenen, Miriam T J; Schnohr, Peter; Franssen, Frits M E; Vestbo, Jørgen; Wouters, Emiel F M; Lange, Peter; Spruit, Martijn A

    2014-11-01

    Little is known about changes in physical activity in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its impact on mortality. Therefore, we aimed to study changes in physical activity in subjects with and without COPD and the impact of physical activity on mortality risk. Subjects from the Copenhagen City Heart Study with at least two consecutive examinations were selected. Each examination included a self-administered questionnaire and clinical examination. 1270 COPD subjects and 8734 subjects without COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 s 67±18 and 91±15% predicted, respectively) were included. COPD subjects with moderate or high baseline physical activity who reported low physical activity level at follow-up had the highest hazard ratios of mortality (1.73 and 2.35, respectively; both pphysical activity, no differences were found in survival between unchanged or increased physical activity at follow-up. In addition, subjects without COPD with low physical activity at follow-up had the highest hazard ratio of mortality, irrespective of baseline physical activity level (p≤0.05). A decline to low physical activity at follow-up was associated with an increased mortality risk in subjects with and without COPD. These observational data suggest that it is important to assess and encourage physical activity in the earliest stages of COPD in order to maintain a physical activity level that is as high as possible, as this is associated with better prognosis.

  10. Soil Erosion Prediction Based on Land Use Changes (A Case in Neka Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim Solaimani

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Land use change has transformed a vast part of the natural landscapes of the developing world for the last 50 years. Land is a fundamental factor of production and though much of the course of human history, it has been tightly coupled with economic growth. Soil erosion by water is one of the most important land degradation processes in the Mediterranean basins. The unplanned land use change within and near a fast growing agricultural land in Neka River Basin, led to an accelerated erosion of soil in the area. Approach: This study aims to find the relationships between land use pattern, erosion and the sediment yield in the study area. The land use coefficient (Xa has applied in the model of Erosion Potential Method (EPM to forecast the effect of the land type to reduce the erosion. Land cover and land use change was projected for the next decade using topography, geology, land use maps and remote sensing data of the study area. Results: The results of this study indicated that the total sediment yield of the study area has notably decreased to 89.24% after an appropriate land use/cover alteration. The estimated special erosion for the Southern Neka Basin is about 144465.1 m3 km-2 where after management policy is predicted 15542.9 m3 km-2 year?1, therefore the total difference for the study area has estimated about 128922.2 m3 km-2 year-1. Conclusion: The land use changes assessed among the different land cover classes. It is important to mention that conducting of the present study a very severe land cover changes taken place as the result of agricultural land development. These changes in land cover led to the forest degradation of the study area. Relationship between land-use changes and agricultural growth offered a more robust prediction of soil erosion in Neka watershed.

  11. Seasonal activity and morphological changes in martian gullies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dundas, Colin M.; Diniega, Serina; Hansen, Candice J.; Byrne, Shane; McEwen, Alfred S.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies of martian dune and non-dune gullies have suggested a seasonal control on present-day gully activity. The timing of current gully activity, especially activity involving the formation or modification of channels (which commonly have been taken as evidence of fluvial processes), has important implications regarding likely gully formation processes and necessary environmental conditions. In this study, we describe the results of frequent meter-scale monitoring of several active gully sites by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The aim is to better assess the scope and nature of current morphological changes and to provide improved constraints on timing of gully activity on both dune and non-dune slopes. Our observations indicate that (1) gully formation on Mars is ongoing today and (2) the most significant morphological changes are strongly associated with seasonal frost and defrosting activity. Observed changes include formation of all major components of typical gully landforms, although we have not observed alcove formation in coherent bedrock. These results reduce the need to invoke recent climate change or present-day groundwater seepage to explain the many martian gullies with pristine appearance.

  12. Efficient and Effective Change Principles in Active Videogames.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straker, Leon M; Fenner, Ashley A; Howie, Erin K; Feltz, Deborah L; Gray, Cindy M; Lu, Amy Shirong; Mueller, Florian Floyd; Simons, Monique; Barnett, Lisa M

    2015-02-01

    Active videogames have the potential to enhance population levels of physical activity but have not been successful in achieving this aim to date. This article considers a range of principles that may be important to the design of effective and efficient active videogames from diverse discipline areas, including behavioral sciences (health behavior change, motor learning, and serious games), business production (marketing and sales), and technology engineering and design (human-computer interaction/ergonomics and flow). Both direct and indirect pathways to impact on population levels of habitual physical activity are proposed, along with the concept of a game use lifecycle. Examples of current active and sedentary electronic games are used to understand how such principles may be applied. Furthermore, limitations of the current usage of theoretical principles are discussed. A suggested list of principles for best practice in active videogame design is proposed along with suggested research ideas to inform practice to enhance physical activity.

  13. Changes in vigorous physical activity and incident diabetes inmale runners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Paul T.

    2007-04-30

    Health Study [11-19] is unique among population cohorts in its focus on the health impact of higher doses of vigorously intense physical activity (i.e., {ge} 6-fold metabolic rate). The study was specifically designed to evaluate the dose-response relationship between vigorous physical activity and health for intensities and durations that exceed current physical activity recommendations [20-22]. One specific hypothesis is whether changes in vigorous physical activity affect the risk for becoming diabetic. Although women were surveyed and followed-up, only 23 developed diabetes so there is limited statistical power to establish their significance. Our analyses of diabetes and vigorous exercise are therefore restricted to men. This paper relates running distance at baseline and at the end of follow-up to self-reported, physician diagnosed diabetes in vigorously active men who were generally lean and ostensibly at low diabetic risk The benefits of greater doses of more vigorous exercise are relevant to the 27% of U.S. women and 34% of U.S. men meet or exceed the more general exercise recommendations for health benefits [23]. Specific issues to be addressed are: (1) whether maintenance of the same level of vigorous exercise over time reduces the risk of incident diabetes in relation to the exercise dose; (2) whether men who decrease their activity increase their risk for becoming diabetic; and (3) whether end of follow-up running distances are more predictive of diabetes than baseline distances, suggesting a causal, acute effect. Elsewhere we have shown that greater body weight is related to a lack of vigorous exercise [12-14] and increases the risk for diabetes even among generally lean vigorously active men [11]. In runners, leanness may be due to the exercise or due to initially lean men choosing to run further [17]. Therefore we also test whether body weight mediates the effects of vigorous exercise on diabetes, and whether this may be due to self-selection.

  14. Environmental controls on the phenology of moths: predicting plasticity and constraint under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valtonen, Anu; Ayres, Matthew P; Roininen, Heikki; Pöyry, Juha; Leinonen, Reima

    2011-01-01

    Ecological systems have naturally high interannual variance in phenology. Component species have presumably evolved to maintain appropriate phenologies under historical climates, but cases of inappropriate phenology can be expected with climate change. Understanding controls on phenology permits predictions of ecological responses to climate change. We studied phenological control systems in Lepidoptera by analyzing flight times recorded at a network of sites in Finland. We evaluated the strength and form of controls from temperature and photoperiod, and tested for geographic variation within species. Temperature controls on phenology were evident in 51% of 112 study species and for a third of those thermal controls appear to be modified by photoperiodic cues. For 24% of the total, photoperiod by itself emerged as the most likely control system. Species with thermal control alone should be most immediately responsive in phenology to climate warming, but variably so depending upon the minimum temperature at which appreciable development occurs and the thermal responsiveness of development rate. Photoperiodic modification of thermal controls constrains phenotypic responses in phenologies to climate change, but can evolve to permit local adaptation. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the phenological structure of the Finnish Lepidoptera community in ways that are predictable with knowledge of the proximate physiological controls. Understanding how phenological controls in Lepidoptera compare to that of their host plants and enemies could permit general inferences regarding climatic effects on mid- to high-latitude ecosystems.

  15. Aggressive behavior and change in salivary testosterone concentrations predict willingness to engage in a competitive task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carré, Justin M; McCormick, Cheryl M

    2008-08-01

    The current study investigated relationships among aggressive behavior, change in salivary testosterone concentrations, and willingness to engage in a competitive task. Thirty-eight male participants provided saliva samples before and after performing the Point Subtraction Aggression Paradigm (a laboratory measure that provides opportunity for aggressive and defensive behavior while working for reward; all three involve pressing specific response keys). Baseline testosterone concentrations were not associated with aggressive responding. However, aggressive responding (but not point reward or point protection responding) predicted the pre- to post-PSAP change in testosterone: Those with the highest aggressive responding had the largest percent increase in testosterone concentrations. Together, aggressive responding and change in testosterone predicted willingness to compete following the PSAP. Controlling for aggression, men who showed a rise in testosterone were more likely to choose to compete again (p=0.03) and controlling for testosterone change, men who showed the highest level of aggressive responding were more likely to choose the non-competitive task (p=0.02). These results indicate that situation-specific aggressive behavior and testosterone responsiveness are functionally relevant predictors of future social behavior.

  16. Predicting ecological changes on benthic estuarine assemblages through decadal climate trends along Brazilian Marine Ecoregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardino, Angelo F.; Netto, Sérgio A.; Pagliosa, Paulo R.; Barros, Francisco; Christofoletti, Ronaldo A.; Rosa Filho, José S.; Colling, André; Lana, Paulo C.

    2015-12-01

    Estuaries are threatened coastal ecosystems that support relevant ecological functions worldwide. The predicted global climate changes demand actions to understand, anticipate and avoid further damage to estuarine habitats. In this study we reviewed data on polychaete assemblages, as a surrogate for overall benthic communities, from 51 estuaries along five Marine Ecoregions of Brazil (Amazonia, NE Brazil, E Brazil, SE Brazil and Rio Grande). We critically evaluated the adaptive capacity and ultimately the resilience to decadal changes in temperature and rainfall of the polychaete assemblages. As a support for theoretical predictions on changes linked to global warming we compared the variability of benthic assemblages across the ecoregions with a 40-year time series of temperature and rainfall data. We found a significant upward trend in temperature during the last four decades at all marine ecoregions of Brazil, while rainfall increase was restricted to the SE Brazil ecoregion. Benthic assemblages and climate trends varied significantly among and within ecoregions. The high variability in climate patterns in estuaries within the same ecoregion may lead to correspondingly high levels of noise on the expected responses of benthic fauna. Nonetheless, we expect changes in community structure and productivity of benthic species at marine ecoregions under increasing influence of higher temperatures, extreme events and pollution.

  17. Striatum-medial prefrontal cortex connectivity predicts developmental changes in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bos, Wouter; Cohen, Michael X; Kahnt, Thorsten; Crone, Eveline A

    2012-06-01

    During development, children improve in learning from feedback to adapt their behavior. However, it is still unclear which neural mechanisms might underlie these developmental changes. In the current study, we used a reinforcement learning model to investigate neurodevelopmental changes in the representation and processing of learning signals. Sixty-seven healthy volunteers between ages 8 and 22 (children: 8-11 years, adolescents: 13-16 years, and adults: 18-22 years) performed a probabilistic learning task while in a magnetic resonance imaging scanner. The behavioral data demonstrated age differences in learning parameters with a stronger impact of negative feedback on expected value in children. Imaging data revealed that the neural representation of prediction errors was similar across age groups, but functional connectivity between the ventral striatum and the medial prefrontal cortex changed as a function of age. Furthermore, the connectivity strength predicted the tendency to alter expectations after receiving negative feedback. These findings suggest that the underlying mechanisms of developmental changes in learning are not related to differences in the neural representation of learning signals per se but rather in how learning signals are used to guide behavior and expectations.

  18. Does Perceived Racial Discrimination Predict Changes in Psychological Distress and Substance Use over Time? An Examination among Black Emerging Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Noelle M.; Varner, Fatima A.; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2014-01-01

    We assessed whether perceived discrimination predicted changes in psychological distress and substance use over time and whether psychological distress and substance use predicted change in perceived discrimination over time. We also assessed whether associations between these constructs varied by gender. Our sample included 607 Black emerging…

  19. Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikuláš Gangur

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Electronic virtual markets can serve as an alternative tool for collecting information that is spread among numerous experts. This is the principal market functionality from the operators’ point of view. On the other hand it is profits that are the main interest of the market participants. What they expect from the market is liquidity as high as possible and the opportunity for unrestricted trading. Both the operator and the electronic market participant can be considered consumers of this particular market with reference to the requirements for the accuracy of its outputs but also for the market liquidity. Both the above mentioned groups of consumers (the operators and the participants themselves expect protection of their specific consumer rights, i.e. securing the two above mentioned functionalities of the market. These functionalities of the electronic market are, however, influenced by many factors, among others by participants’ activity. The article deals with the motivation tools that may improve the quality of the prediction market. In the prediction electronic virtual market there may be situations in which the commonly used tools for increasing business activities described in the published literature are not significantly effective. For such situations we suggest a new type of motivation incentive consisting in penalizing the individual market participants whose funds are not placed in the market. The functionality of the proposed motivation incentive is presented on the example of the existing data gained from the electronic virtual prediction market which is actively operated.

  20. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda C Jones

    Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.

  1. Adaptation of active tone in the mouse descending thoracic aorta under acute changes in loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtada, S-I; Lewin, S; Arner, A; Humphrey, J D

    2016-06-01

    Arteries can adapt to sustained changes in blood pressure and flow, and it is thought that these adaptive processes often begin with an altered smooth muscle cell activity that precedes any detectable changes in the passive wall components. Yet, due to the intrinsic coupling between the active and passive properties of the arterial wall, it has been difficult to delineate the adaptive contributions of active smooth muscle. To address this need, we used a novel experimental-computational approach to quantify adaptive functions of active smooth muscle in arterial rings excised from the proximal descending thoracic aorta of mice and subjected to short-term sustained circumferential stretches while stimulated with various agonists. A new mathematical model of the adaptive processes was derived and fit to data to describe and predict the effects of active tone adaptation. It was found that active tone was maintained when the artery was adapted close to the optimal stretch for maximal active force production, but it was reduced when adapted below the optimal stretch; there was no significant change in passive behavior in either case. Such active adaptations occurred only upon smooth muscle stimulation with phenylephrine, however, not stimulation with KCl or angiotensin II. Numerical simulations using the proposed model suggested further that active tone adaptation in vascular smooth muscle could play a stabilizing role for wall stress in large elastic arteries.

  2. Cross-Layer Active Predictive Congestion Control Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinfeng Wu

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In wireless sensor networks (WSNs, there are numerous factors that may cause network congestion problems, such as the many-to-one communication modes, mutual interference of wireless links, dynamic changes of network topology and the memory-restrained characteristics of nodes. All these factors result in a network being more vulnerable to congestion. In this paper, a cross-layer active predictive congestion control scheme (CL-APCC for improving the performance of networks is proposed. Queuing theory is applied in the CL-APCC to analyze data flows of a single-node according to its memory status, combined with the analysis of the average occupied memory size of local networks. It also analyzes the current data change trends of local networks to forecast and actively adjust the sending rate of the node in the next period. In order to ensure the fairness and timeliness of the network, the IEEE 802.11 protocol is revised based on waiting time, the number of the node‟s neighbors and the original priority of data packets, which dynamically adjusts the sending priority of the node. The performance of CL-APCC, which is evaluated by extensive simulation experiments. is more efficient in solving the congestion in WSNs. Furthermore, it is clear that the proposed scheme has an outstanding advantage in terms of improving the fairness and lifetime of networks.

  3. Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Sousa Pereira Simoes de Melo, Manuel; Ferre, Rafael; Feliu, Lidia; Bardaji, Eduard; Planas, Marta; Castanho, Miguel A. R. B.

    2011-01-01

    Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible co

  4. Prediction of changes in groundwater dynamics caused by relocation of river embankments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Mohrlok

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystems in river valleys are affected mainly by the hydraulic conditions in wetlands including groundwater dynamics. The quantitative prediction of changes in groundwater dynamics caused by river embankment relocation requires numerical modelling using a physically-based approach. Groundwater recharge from the intermittently flooded river plains was determined by a leakage approach considering soil hydraulic properties. For the study area in the Elbe river valley north of Magdeburg, Germany, a calibrated groundwater flow model was established and the groundwater dynamics for the present situation as well as for the case of embankment relocation were simulated over a 14-year time period. Changes in groundwater depth derived from simulated groundwater levels occurred only during flood periods. By analysing the spatial distributions of changes in statistical parameters, those areas with significant impact on the ecosystems by embankment relocation can be determined. Keywords: groundwater dynamics,groundwater recharge, flood plains, soil hydraulic properties, numerical modelling, river embankment relocation

  5. Climate change and peripheral populations: predictions for a relict Mediterranean viper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Brito

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche-based models were developed in peripheral populations of Vipera latastei North Africa to: 1 identify environmental factors related to species occurrence; 2 identify present suitable areas; 3 estimate future areas according to forecasted scenarios of climate change; and 4 quantify habitat suitability changes between present and future climatic scenarios. Field observations were combined with environmental factors to derive an ensemble of predictions of species occurrence. The resulting models were projected to the future North African environmental scenarios. Species occurrence was most related to precipitation variation. Present suitable habitats were fragmented and ranged from coastal to mountain habitats, and the overall fragmented range suggests a relict distribution from wider past ranges. Future projections suggest a progressive decrease in suitable areas. The relationship with precipitation supports the current unsuitability of most North Africa for the species and predicts future increased extinction risk. Monitoring of population trends and full protection of mountain forests are key-targets for long-term conservation of African populations of this viper. Predicted trends may give indications about other peripheral populations of Palearctic vertebrates in North Africa which should be assessed in detail.

  6. Structural integrity of frontostriatal connections predicts longitudinal changes in self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, Robert S; Heatherton, Todd F

    2017-06-01

    Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem 8 months after initial scanning in a sample of 30 young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions, including depression and anxiety.

  7. Predicting impacts of climate change on medicinal asclepiads of Pakistan using Maxent modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanum, Rizwana; Mumtaz, A. S.; Kumar, Sunil

    2013-05-01

    Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling was used to predict the potential climatic niches of three medicinally important Asclepiad species: Pentatropis spiralis, Tylophora hirsuta, and Vincetoxicum arnottianum. All three species are members of the Asclepiad plant family, yet they differ in ecological requirements, biogeographic importance, and conservation value. Occurrence data were collected from herbarium specimens held in major herbaria of Pakistan and two years (2010 and 2011) of field surveys. The Maxent model performed better than random for the three species with an average test AUC value of 0.74 for P. spiralis, 0.84 for V. arnottianum, and 0.59 for T. hirsuta. Under the future climate change scenario, the Maxent model predicted habitat gains for P. spiralis in southern Punjab and Balochistan, and loss of habitat in south-eastern Sindh. Vincetoxicum arnottianum as well as T. hirsuta would gain habitat in upper Peaks of northern parts of Pakistan. T. hirsuta is predicted to lose most of the habitats in northern Punjab and in parches from lower peaks of Galliat, Zhob, Qalat etc. The predictive modeling approach presented here may be applied to other rare Asclepiad species, especially those under constant extinction threat.

  8. Molecular physicochemical parameters predicting antioxidant activity of Brazilian natural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Scotti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Reactive oxygen species (ROS are capable of oxidizing cellular proteins, nucleic acids and lipids, contributing to cellular aging, mutagenesis, carcinogenesis, coronary heart and neurodegenerative diseases. Free radicals-scavenging by phenolic compounds occurs by the transfer of one electron followed by the H-abstraction. In order to evaluate the antioxidant activity of a series of seventeen phenolic compounds extracted from Brazilian flora (Chimarrhis turbinata and Arrabidea samydoides, some physicochemical parameters (heat formation of the neutral, radical, and cationic compounds; orbitals' energies; ClogP; ΔH OX; and ΔHf were calculated. Considering the results from the calculated descriptors, the molecules 10a-f can be classified as having a higher antioxidant activity.

  9. Input techniques that dynamically change their cursor activation area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2007-01-01

    cursor, whose activation area always contains the closest object, and two variants of cell cursors, whose activation areas contain a set of objects in the vicinity of the cursor. We report two experiments that compare these techniques to a point cursor; in one experiment participants use a touchpad......Efficient pointing is crucial to graphical user interfaces, and input techniques that dynamically change their activation area may yield improvements over point cursors by making objects selectable at a distance. Input techniques that dynamically change their activation area include the bubble...... for operating the input techniques, in the other a mouse. In both experiments, the bubble cursor is fastest and participants make fewer errors with it. Participants also unanimously prefer this technique. For small targets, the cell cursors are generally more accurate than the point cursor; in the second...

  10. Initial Implementation of an Active Prediction Capability in Bellhop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    version du Bellhop spécifiquement conçue pour offrir une capacité active. Le modèle est présentement configuré pour accepter des capteurs multiples et...capability should be examined to determine if it will be of use to the present applications of BellhopDRDC. 2.2 Enable towed array beam patterns...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION (Overall security classification of the document including special warning terms if applicable .) 3. TITLE

  11. Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kissling, W. Daniel; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.;

    2010-01-01

    Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant s...... even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.......Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant...... species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change...

  12. Right anterior superior temporal activation predicts auditory sentence comprehension following aphasic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crinion, Jenny; Price, Cathy J

    2005-12-01

    Previous studies have suggested that recovery of speech comprehension after left hemisphere infarction may depend on a mechanism in the right hemisphere. However, the role that distinct right hemisphere regions play in speech comprehension following left hemisphere stroke has not been established. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate narrative speech activation in 18 neurologically normal subjects and 17 patients with left hemisphere stroke and a history of aphasia. Activation for listening to meaningful stories relative to meaningless reversed speech was identified in the normal subjects and in each patient. Second level analyses were then used to investigate how story activation changed with the patients' auditory sentence comprehension skills and surprise story recognition memory tests post-scanning. Irrespective of lesion site, performance on tests of auditory sentence comprehension was positively correlated with activation in the right lateral superior temporal region, anterior to primary auditory cortex. In addition, when the stroke spared the left temporal cortex, good performance on tests of auditory sentence comprehension was also correlated with the left posterior superior temporal cortex (Wernicke's area). In distinct contrast to this, good story recognition memory predicted left inferior frontal and right cerebellar activation. The implication of this double dissociation in the effects of auditory sentence comprehension and story recognition memory is that left frontal and left temporal activations are dissociable. Our findings strongly support the role of the right temporal lobe in processing narrative speech and, in particular, auditory sentence comprehension following left hemisphere aphasic stroke. In addition, they highlight the importance of the right anterior superior temporal cortex where the response was dissociated from that in the left posterior temporal lobe.

  13. Continuously Growing Rodent Molars Result from a Predictable Quantitative Evolutionary Change over 50 Million Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagan Tapaltsyan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The fossil record is widely informative about evolution, but fossils are not systematically used to study the evolution of stem-cell-driven renewal. Here, we examined evolution of the continuous growth (hypselodonty of rodent molar teeth, which is fuelled by the presence of dental stem cells. We studied occurrences of 3,500 North American rodent fossils, ranging from 50 million years ago (mya to 2 mya. We examined changes in molar height to determine whether evolution of hypselodonty shows distinct patterns in the fossil record, and we found that hypselodont taxa emerged through intermediate forms of increasing crown height. Next, we designed a Markov simulation model, which replicated molar height increases throughout the Cenozoic and, moreover, evolution of hypselodonty. Thus, by extension, the retention of the adult stem cell niche appears to be a predictable quantitative rather than a stochastic qualitative process. Our analyses predict that hypselodonty will eventually become the dominant phenotype.

  14. Present and future distributions of horseshoe crabs under predicted climate changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funch, Peter; Obst, Matthias; Quevedo, Francisco;

    factors for the species distribution, quantify range shifts of the species in response to predicted climatic change, and obtain spatial predictions of suitable habitats under present and future climate scenarios. Suitable habitat was projected into marine protected areas in the region to better understand......The habitats of South East Asian horseshoe crabs span across the shallow waters of many countries and biogeographic regions in the Indo-Pacific. Such ubiquitous presence makes it difficult to obtain an up-to-date and overall picture of the current distribution, density and wealth of horseshoe crab....... gigas lives in sandy and shallow near-coast habitats, while C. rotundicauda mostly inhabits estuaries and mangroves. The third species T. tridentatus is living in shallow coastal zones from Malaysia to Japan. In order to improve our knowledge on current and future distribution of horseshoe crab...

  15. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...... examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated...

  16. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search.

  17. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search. PMID:27867436

  18. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  19. Meditation-induced changes in high-frequency heart rate variability predict smoking outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Libby

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: High-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV is a measure of parasympathetic nervous system output that has been associated with enhanced self-regulation. Low resting levels of HF-HRV are associated with nicotine dependence and blunted stress-related changes in HF-HRV are associated with decreased ability to resist smoking. Meditation has been shown to increase HF-HRV. However, it is unknown whether tonic levels of HF-HRV or acute changes in HF-HRV during meditation predict treatment responses in addictive behaviors such as smoking cessation. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between HF-HRV and subsequent smoking outcomes. Methods: HF-HRV during resting baseline and during mindfulness meditation was measured within two weeks of completing a 4-week smoking cessation intervention in a sample of 31 community participants. Self-report measures of smoking were obtained at a follow up 17-weeks after the initiation of treatment. Results: Regression analyses indicated that individuals exhibiting acute increases in HF-HRV from resting baseline to meditation smoked fewer cigarettes at follow-up than those who exhibited acute decreases in HF-HRV (b=-4.94, p=.009. Conclusion: Acute changes in HF-HRV in response to meditation may be a useful tool to predict smoking cessation treatment response.

  20. New Approaches for Crop Genetic Adaptation to the Abiotic Stresses Predicted with Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Redden

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic variation is predicted with climate change this century. In many cropping regions, the crop environment will tend to be warmer with more irregular rainfall and spikes in stress levels will be more severe. The challenge is not only to raise agricultural production for an expanding population, but to achieve this under more adverse environmental conditions. It is now possible to systematically explore the genetic variation in historic local landraces by using GPS locators and world climate maps to describe the natural selection for local adaptation, and to identify candidate germplasm for tolerances to extreme stresses. The physiological and biochemical components of these expressions can be genomically investigated with candidate gene approaches and next generation sequencing. Wild relatives of crops have largely untapped genetic variation for abiotic and biotic stress tolerances, and could greatly expand the available domesticated gene pools to assist crops to survive in the predicted extremes of climate change, a survivalomics strategy. Genomic strategies can assist in the introgression of these valuable traits into the domesticated crop gene pools, where they can be better evaluated for crop improvement. The challenge is to increase agricultural productivity despite climate change. This calls for the integration of many disciplines from eco-geographical analyses of genetic resources to new advances in genomics, agronomy and farm management, underpinned by an understanding of how crop adaptation to climate is affected by genotype × environment interaction.

  1. Switch region for pathogenic structural change in conformational disease and its prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Many diseases are believed to be related to abnormal protein folding. In the first step of such pathogenic structural changes, misfolding occurs in regions important for the stability of the native structure. This destabilizes the normal protein conformation, while exposing the previously hidden aggregation-prone regions, leading to subsequent errors in the folding pathway. Sites involved in this first stage can be deemed switch regions of the protein, and can represent perfect binding targets for drugs to block the abnormal folding pathway and prevent pathogenic conformational changes. In this study, a prediction algorithm for the switch regions responsible for the start of pathogenic structural changes is introduced. With an accuracy of 94%, this algorithm can successfully find short segments covering sites significant in triggering conformational diseases (CDs and is the first that can predict switch regions for various CDs. To illustrate its effectiveness in dealing with urgent public health problems, the reason of the increased pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza virus is analyzed; the mechanisms of the pandemic swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1 influenza virus in overcoming species barriers and in infecting large number of potential patients are also suggested. It is shown that the algorithm is a potential tool useful in the study of the pathology of CDs because: (1 it can identify the origin of pathogenic structural conversion with high sensitivity and specificity, and (2 it provides an ideal target for clinical treatment.

  2. Plant physiological models of heat, water and photoinhibition stress for climate change modelling and agricultural prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, B.; Gilbert, M. E.; Paw U, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models are based upon well understood steady state photosynthetic physiology - the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model (FvCB). However, representations of physiological stress and damage have not been successfully integrated into SVAT models. Generally, it has been assumed that plants will strive to conserve water at higher temperatures by reducing stomatal conductance or adjusting osmotic balance, until potentially damaging temperatures and the need for evaporative cooling become more important than water conservation. A key point is that damage is the result of combined stresses: drought leads to stomatal closure, less evaporative cooling, high leaf temperature, less photosynthetic dissipation of absorbed energy, all coupled with high light (photosynthetic photon flux density; PPFD). This leads to excess absorbed energy by Photosystem II (PSII) and results in photoinhibition and damage, neither are included in SVAT models. Current representations of photoinhibition are treated as a function of PPFD, not as a function of constrained photosynthesis under heat or water. Thus, it seems unlikely that current models can predict responses of vegetation to climate variability and change. We propose a dynamic model of damage to Rubisco and RuBP-regeneration that accounts, mechanistically, for the interactions between high temperature, light, and constrained photosynthesis under drought. Further, these predictions are illustrated by key experiments allowing model validation. We also integrated this new framework within the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA). Preliminary results show that our approach can be used to predict reasonable photosynthetic dynamics. For instances, a leaf undergoing one day of drought stress will quickly decrease its maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), but it won't recover to unstressed levels for several days. Consequently, cumulative effect of photoinhibition on photosynthesis can cause

  3. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  4. A Chang'e-4 mission concept and vision of future Chinese lunar exploration activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiong; Liu, Jizhong

    2016-10-01

    A novel concept for Chinese Chang'e-4 lunar exploration mission is presented in this paper at first. After the success of Chang'e-3, its backup probe, Chang'e-4 lander/rover combination, would be upgraded and land on the unexplored lunar farside by the aid of a relay satellite near the second Earth-Moon Lagrange point. Mineralogical and geochemical surveys on the farside to study the formation and evolution of lunar crust and observations at low radio frequencies to track the signals of the Universe's Dark Ages are priorities. Follow-up Chinese lunar exploration activities before 2030 are envisioned as building a robotic lunar science station by three to five missions. Finally several methods of international cooperation are proposed.

  5. Using Social Cognitive Theory to Predict Physical Activity and Fitness in Underserved Middle School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-01-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using…

  6. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  7. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Geertzen, Jan H. B.; van der Schans, Cees P.; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity

  8. Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Biao; Xu, Yi Jun

    2014-10-01

    This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5° × 0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001-2010, 2041-2050, and 2091-2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p change from 30.7 t/ha in 2001 to 25.4, 26.6, and 27.0 t/ha in 2100, respectively. Annual SOC changes will be significantly different among the land cover classes including evergreen forest, mixed forest, deciduous forest, small grains, row crops, and pasture/hay (p < 0.0001), emissions scenarios (p < 0.0001), and their interactions (p < 0.0001).

  9. Monitoring and restabilizing structures under external excitations through detection and prediction of changes in structural properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastijanovic, Nebojsa

    The primary goal of this dissertation is the development of methods for prediction and detection of damage in structures under external excitations through the use of sensors and actuators. The first example involves developing an active flutter suppression algorithm for a flat panel in flight and space vehicles using embedded piezoceramic actuators. A basic eigenvector orientation approach is used to evaluate the possibility of controlling the onset of panel flutter. Eigenvectors for two consecutive modes are usually orthogonal and the onset of flutter condition can be observed earlier as they start to lose their orthogonality. Piezoelectric layers are assumed to be bonded to the top and bottom surfaces of the panel in order to provide counter-bending moments at joints between elements. The controllers are designed to modify the stiffness of the structure and re-stabilize the system; as a result, flutter occurrence can be offset to a higher flutter speed. To illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed method, several simple wide beam examples using piezoelectric layers as actuators are studied and presented. Controllers based on different control objectives are considered and the effects of control moment locations are studied. Potential applications of this basic method may be straightforwardly applied to plate and shell structures of laminated composites. The second example includes developing a method for detecting, locating, and quantifying structural damage using acceleration measurements as feedback. This method directly uses time domain structural vibration measurements and the effects of different damages are decoupled in the controller design. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with illustrative examples of a three and an eight-story model as well as a single story steel frame model with changes in joint flexibility. Finally, the progress on developing a hybrid structural health monitoring system is presented through

  10. Predicting future morphological changes of lesions from radiotracer uptake in 18F-FDG-PET images.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulas Bagci

    Full Text Available We introduce a novel computational framework to enable automated identification of texture and shape features of lesions on (18F-FDG-PET images through a graph-based image segmentation method. The proposed framework predicts future morphological changes of lesions with high accuracy. The presented methodology has several benefits over conventional qualitative and semi-quantitative methods, due to its fully quantitative nature and high accuracy in each step of (i detection, (ii segmentation, and (iii feature extraction. To evaluate our proposed computational framework, thirty patients received 2 (18F-FDG-PET scans (60 scans total, at two different time points. Metastatic papillary renal cell carcinoma, cerebellar hemongioblastoma, non-small cell lung cancer, neurofibroma, lymphomatoid granulomatosis, lung neoplasm, neuroendocrine tumor, soft tissue thoracic mass, nonnecrotizing granulomatous inflammation, renal cell carcinoma with papillary and cystic features, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, metastatic alveolar soft part sarcoma, and small cell lung cancer were included in this analysis. The radiotracer accumulation in patients' scans was automatically detected and segmented by the proposed segmentation algorithm. Delineated regions were used to extract shape and textural features, with the proposed adaptive feature extraction framework, as well as standardized uptake values (SUV of uptake regions, to conduct a broad quantitative analysis. Evaluation of segmentation results indicates that our proposed segmentation algorithm has a mean dice similarity coefficient of 85.75 ± 1.75%. We found that 28 of 68 extracted imaging features were correlated well with SUV(max (p<0.05, and some of the textural features (such as entropy and maximum probability were superior in predicting morphological changes of radiotracer uptake regions longitudinally, compared to single intensity feature such as SUV(max. We also found that integrating textural features with

  11. Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behshid Garrusi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI, Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD of age was 31.06 (10.24 years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.

  12. Evaluating Transcription Factor Activity Changes by Scoring Unexplained Target Genes in Expression Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchtold, Evi; Csaba, Gergely; Zimmer, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Several methods predict activity changes of transcription factors (TFs) from a given regulatory network and measured expression data. But available gene regulatory networks are incomplete and contain many condition-dependent regulations that are not relevant for the specific expression measurement. It is not known which combination of active TFs is needed to cause a change in the expression of a target gene. A method to systematically evaluate the inferred activity changes is missing. We present such an evaluation strategy that indicates for how many target genes the observed expression changes can be explained by a given set of active TFs. To overcome the problem that the exact combination of active TFs needed to activate a gene is typically not known, we assume a gene to be explained if there exists any combination for which the predicted active TFs can possibly explain the observed change of the gene. We introduce the i-score (inconsistency score), which quantifies how many genes could not be explained by the set of activity changes of TFs. We observe that, even for these minimal requirements, published methods yield many unexplained target genes, i.e. large i-scores. This holds for all methods and all expression datasets we evaluated. We provide new optimization methods to calculate the best possible (minimal) i-score given the network and measured expression data. The evaluation of this optimized i-score on a large data compendium yields many unexplained target genes for almost every case. This indicates that currently available regulatory networks are still far from being complete. Both the presented Act-SAT and Act-A* methods produce optimal sets of TF activity changes, which can be used to investigate the difficult interplay of expression and network data. A web server and a command line tool to calculate our i-score and to find the active TFs associated with the minimal i-score is available from https://services.bio.ifi.lmu.de/i-score. PMID:27723775

  13. Videogames, Tools for Change: A Study Based on Activity Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Laura; Lacasa, Pilar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for analysis from which to interpret the transformations that take place, as perceived by the participants, when commercial video games are used in the classroom. We will show how Activity Theory (AT) is able to explain and interpret these changes. Method: Case studies are…

  14. Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression Exposure to many drugs and environmentally-relevant chemicals can cause adverse outcomes. These adverse outcomes, such as cancer, have been linked to mol...

  15. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  16. Changing ideas about others’ intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Pierre O.; Roy, Alice C.; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M.; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting intentions from observing another agent’s behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance – i.e., the motor system’s response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers’ prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others’ intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction. PMID:27243157

  17. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  18. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Soer, Remko; Jan H B Geertzen; van der Schans, Cees P; Johan W. Groothoff; Reneman, Michiel F

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity, and duration of DOMS after performing work-related activities during a Functional Capacity Evaluation in healthy participants. Methods: Included in this study were 197 healthy participants (102 m...

  19. Prediction of insecticidal activity of Bacillus thuringiensis strains by polymerase chain reaction product profiles.

    OpenAIRE

    Carozzi, N B; Kramer, V C; Warren, G W; Evola, S; Koziel, M G

    1991-01-01

    A rapid analysis of Bacillus thuringiensis strains predictive of insecticidal activity was established by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. Primers specific to regions of high homology within genes encoding three major classes of B. thuringiensis crystal proteins were used to generate a PCR product profile characteristic of each insecticidal class. Predictions of insecticidal activity were made on the basis of the electrophoretic patterns of the PCR products. Included in the s...

  20. Microarray data can predict diurnal changes of starch content in the picoalga Ostreococcus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goryanin Igor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The storage of photosynthetic carbohydrate products such as starch is subject to complex regulation, effected at both transcriptional and post-translational levels. The relevant genes in plants show pronounced daily regulation. Their temporal RNA expression profiles, however, do not predict the dynamics of metabolite levels, due to the divergence of enzyme activity from the RNA profiles. Unicellular phytoplankton retains the complexity of plant carbohydrate metabolism, and recent transcriptomic profiling suggests a major input of transcriptional regulation. Results We used a quasi-steady-state, constraint-based modelling approach to infer the dynamics of starch content during the 12 h light/12 h dark cycle in the model alga Ostreococcus tauri. Measured RNA expression datasets from microarray analysis were integrated with a detailed stoichiometric reconstruction of starch metabolism in O. tauri in order to predict the optimal flux distribution and the dynamics of the starch content in the light/dark cycle. The predicted starch profile was validated by experimental data over the 24 h cycle. The main genetic regulatory targets within the pathway were predicted by in silico analysis. Conclusions A single-reaction description of starch production is not able to account for the observed variability of diurnal activity profiles of starch-related enzymes. We developed a detailed reaction model of starch metabolism, which, to our knowledge, is the first attempt to describe this polysaccharide polymerization while preserving the mass balance relationships. Our model and method demonstrate the utility of a quasi-steady-state approach for inferring dynamic metabolic information in O. tauri directly from time-series gene expression data.

  1. Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sinclair, Brent J.; Marshall, Katie E.; Sewell, Mary A.;

    2016-01-01

    Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T-b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying...... this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T-b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs....... For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions...

  2. Investigation of an alternative generic model for predicting pharmacokinetic changes during physiological stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Henry T; Edginton, Andrea N; Cheung, Bob

    2013-10-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models were developed using MATLAB Simulink® and PK-Sim®. We compared the capability and usefulness of these two models by simulating pharmacokinetic changes of midazolam under exercise and heat stress to verify the usefulness of MATLAB Simulink® as a generic PBPK modeling software. Although both models show good agreement with experimental data obtained under resting condition, their predictions of pharmacokinetics changes are less accurate in the stressful conditions. However, MATLAB Simulink® may be more flexible to include physiologically based processes such as oral absorption and simulate various stress parameters such as stress intensity, duration and timing of drug administration to improve model performance. Further work will be conducted to modify algorithms in our generic model developed using MATLAB Simulink® and to investigate pharmacokinetics under other physiological stress such as trauma.

  3. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kangalawe Richard YM

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. Methods The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI. The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. Results These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Conclusion Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria

  4. Predicted disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain due to changes in rainfall patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Ju Xiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of C. obcordata to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that C. obcordata can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought. CONCLUSIONS: The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of C. obcordata in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the C. obcordata population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.

  5. PREDICTING THE CHANGE OF CHILD’S BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS: SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND MATERNAL PARENTING STRESS FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelina Viduoliene

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: evaluate 1 whether child’s externalizing problems increase or decrease within 12 months period; 2 the change of externalizing problems with respect to child gender and age, and 3 which maternal parenting stress factors and family sociodemographic characteristics can predict the increase and decrease of child’s externalizing problems. Design/methodology/approach: participants were evaluated 2 times (with the interval of 12 months with the Parenting Stress Index (Abidin, 1990 and Child Behavior Checklist 1.5−5 years (Achenbach, Rescorla, 2000 questionnaires. Findings: Child’s externalizing problems decreased within 12 months period. There were no effects of child’s age, gender and age*gender interaction on externalizing problems change within 12 months period. Higher initial level and more negative change within 12 months period of maternal parenting stress related to child characteristics, more stressful events in family life predicted the increase of child’s externalizing problems. Research limitations/implications: maternal parenting stress and child’s externalizing problems are related and may influence each other simultaneously. Child’s externalizing problems decrease within one year period in overall 2−5 years old children group. The change of child’s aggressive behavior and hyperactivity, distractibility should be evaluated individually, separately from each other. Practical implications: maternal parenting stress and child’s behavior problems are closely related to each other, it may be meaningful organize intervention for mothers in order to prevent child’s externalizing problems increase. Keywords: maternal parenting stress, externalizing problems, childhood, toddlerhood, longitudinal research. Research type: research paper.

  6. Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ripszam, M., E-mail: matyas.ripszam@chem.umu.se [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Gallampois, C.M.J. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Berglund, Å. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Larsson, H. [Umeå Marine Sciences Centre, Umeå University, Norrbyn, 905 71 Hörnefors (Sweden); Andersson, A. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

    2015-06-01

    Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L{sup −1} and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L{sup −1}, respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate.

  7. Prediction Signatures in the Brain: Semantic Pre-Activation during Language Comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maess, Burkhard; Mamashli, Fahimeh; Obleser, Jonas; Helle, Liisa; Friederici, Angela D.

    2016-01-01

    There is broad agreement that context-based predictions facilitate lexical-semantic processing. A robust index of semantic prediction during language comprehension is an evoked response, known as the N400, whose amplitude is modulated as a function of semantic context. However, the underlying neural mechanisms that utilize relations of the prior context and the embedded word within it are largely unknown. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) data while participants were listening to simple German sentences in which the verbs were either highly predictive for the occurrence of a particular noun (i.e., provided context) or not. The identical set of nouns was presented in both conditions. Hence, differences for the evoked responses of the nouns can only be due to differences in the earlier context. We observed a reduction of the N400 response for highly predicted nouns. Interestingly, the opposite pattern was observed for the preceding verbs: highly predictive (that is more informative) verbs yielded stronger neural magnitude compared to less predictive verbs. A negative correlation between the N400 effect of the verb and that of the noun was found in a distributed brain network, indicating an integral relation between the predictive power of the verb and the processing of the subsequent noun. This network consisted of left hemispheric superior and middle temporal areas and a subcortical area; the parahippocampus. Enhanced activity for highly predictive relative to less predictive verbs, likely reflects establishing semantic features associated with the expected nouns, that is a pre-activation of the expected nouns. PMID:27895573

  8. Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Eunsil; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2016-07-01

    Severe convective storms cause catastrophic losses each year in the United States, suggesting that any predictive capability is of great societal benefit. While it is known that El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence high impact weather events, such as a tornado activity and severe storms, in the US during early spring, this study highlights that the influence of ENSO on US severe storm characteristics is weak during May-July. Instead, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is a potential predictor for moist instability, which is an important factor in influencing the storm characteristics in the US during May-July.

  9. Strain energy density gradients in bone marrow predict osteoblast and osteoclast activity: a finite element study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Duncan; Schulte, Friederike A; Lambers, Floor M; Kuhn, Gisela; Müller, Ralph

    2015-03-18

    Huiskes et al. hypothesized that mechanical strains sensed by osteocytes residing in trabecular bone dictate the magnitude of load-induced bone formation. More recently, the mechanical environment in bone marrow has also been implicated in bone׳s response to mechanical stimulation. In this study, we hypothesize that trabecular load-induced bone formation can be predicted by mechanical signals derived from an integrative µFE model, incorporating a description of both the bone and marrow phase. Using the mouse tail loading model in combination with in vivo micro-computed tomography (µCT) we tracked load induced changes in the sixth caudal vertebrae of C57BL/6 mice to quantify the amount of newly mineralized and eroded bone volumes. To identify the mechanical signals responsible for adaptation, local morphometric changes were compared to micro-finite element (µFE) models of vertebrae prior to loading. The mechanical parameters calculated were strain energy density (SED) on trabeculae at bone forming and resorbing surfaces, SED in the marrow at the boundary between bone forming and resorbing surfaces, along with SED in the trabecular bone and marrow volumes. The gradients of each parameter were also calculated. Simple regression analysis showed mean SED gradients in the trabecular bone matrix to significantly correlate with newly mineralized and eroded bone volumes R(2)=0.57 and 0.41, respectively, pbone marrow plays a significant role in determining osteoblast and osteoclast activity.

  10. CHANGES IN QUADRICEPS MUSCLE ACTIVITY DURING SUSTAINED RECREATIONAL ALPINE SKIING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Kröll

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available During a day of skiing thousands of repeated contractions take place. Previous research on prolonged recreational alpine skiing show that physiological changes occur and hence some level of fatigue is inevitable. In the present paper the effect of prolonged skiing on the recruitment and coordination of the muscle activity was investigated. Six subjects performed 24 standardized runs. Muscle activity during the first two (PREskiing and the last two (POSTskiing runs was measured from the vastus lateralis (VL and rectus femoris (RF using EMG and quantified using wavelet and principal component analysis. The frequency content of the EMG signal shifted in seven out of eight cases significantly towards lower frequencies with highest effects observed for RF on outside leg. A significant pronounced outside leg loading occurred during POSTskiing and the timing of muscle activity peaks occurred more towards turn completion. Specific EMG frequency changes were observed at certain time points throughout the time windows and not over the whole double turn. It is suggested that general muscular fatigue, where additional specific muscle fibers have to be recruited due to the reduced power output of other fibers did not occur. The EMG frequency decrease and intensity changes for RF and VL are caused by altered timing (coordination within the turn towards a most likely more uncontrolled skiing technique. Hence, these data provide evidence to suggest recreational skiers alter their skiing technique before a potential change in muscle fiber recruitment occurs

  11. High throughput computing to improve efficiency of predicting protein stability change upon mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao-Chin; Lai, Lien-Fu; Gromiha, M Michael; Huang, Liang-Tsung

    2014-01-01

    Predicting protein stability change upon mutation is important for protein design. Although several methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy it will be difficult to employ those methods when the required input information is incomplete. In this work, we integrated a fuzzy query model based on the knowledge-based approach to overcome this problem, and then we proposed a high throughput computing method based on parallel technologies in emerging cluster or grid systems to discriminate stability change. To improve the load balance of heterogeneous computing power in cluster and grid nodes, a variety of self-scheduling schemes have been implemented. Further, we have tested the method by performing different analyses and the results showed that the present method can process hundreds of predication queries in more reasonable response time and perform a super linear speedup to a maximum of 86.2 times. We have also established a website tool to implement the proposed method and it is available at http://bioinformatics.myweb.hinet.net/para.htm.

  12. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Ferrier, Simon

    2013-06-01

    "Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption-that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity-rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.

  13. Factors influencing the predictability of soft tissue profile changes following mandibular setback surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobarak, K A; Krogstad, O; Espeland, L; Lyberg, T

    2001-06-01

    The objective of this cephalometric study was to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular setback surgery and investigate the presence of factors that may influence the soft tissue response to skeletal repositioning. The subjects enrolled were 80 consecutive mandibular prognathism patients operated with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken at 6 occasions: immediate presurgical, immediate postsurgical, 2 and 6 months postsurgical, and 1 and 3 years postsurgical. The subjects were grouped according to gender and magnitude of setback. Ratios of soft tissue to hard tissue movements were calculated for the subgroups. Females generally demonstrated greater ratios than males with a statistically significant difference for the upper lip and chin (P < .05). Postsurgical alterations in the profiles were more predictable in patients with larger setbacks compared to patients with smaller ones. Skeletal relapse had a profound influence on long-term profile changes. Based on these findings, it is proposed that the database used in prediction software be adjusted to account for such factors in an attempt to improve the accuracy of computerized treatment simulations.

  14. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Zhao, Yao; Pei, Lin; Zhao, Jiancheng

    2016-01-01

    Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the “very good” category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time. PMID:27661983

  15. Comparative study to predict dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitory activity of β-amino amide scaffold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Patil

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparative study was performed on 34 β-amino amide derivatives as dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitors in order to determine their structural requirement to enhance the antidiabetic activities. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships models utilized specialized fragment fingerprints (hologram length 353 which showed good predictivity with cross-validated q 2 and conventional r 2 values of 0.971 and 0.971, respectively. Models were validated and optimized by a test set of eight compounds and gave satisfactory predictive ability. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships maps were helpful in prediction of the structural features of the ligands to account for the activity in terms of positively and negatively contributing towards activity. The information obtained from maps could be effectively use as a guiding tool for further structure modifications and synthesis of new potent antidiabetic agents.

  16. Predicting involvement in prison gang activity: street gang membership, social and psychological factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Jane L; Alleyne, Emma; Mozova, Katarina; James, Mark

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether street gang membership, psychological factors, and social factors such as preprison experiences could predict young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Data were collected via individual interviews with 188 young offenders held in a Young Offenders Institution in the United Kingdom. Results showed that psychological factors such as the value individuals attached to social status, a social dominance orientation, and antiauthority attitudes were important in predicting young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Further important predictors included preimprisonment events such as levels of threat, levels of individual delinquency, and levels of involvement in group crime. Longer current sentences also predicted involvement in prison gang activity. However, street gang membership was not an important predictor of involvement in prison gang activity. These findings have implications for identifying prisoners involved in prison gang activity and for considering the role of psychological factors and group processes in gang research.

  17. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  18. A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Renner

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009 presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing.

    Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

  19. Changes in Income at Macro Level Predict Sex Ratio at Birth in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanninen, Ohto; Karhula, Aleksi

    2016-01-01

    The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) is approximately 107 boys for every 100 girls. SRB was rising until the World War II and has been declining slightly after the 1950s in several industrial countries. Recent studies have shown that SRB varies according to exposure to disasters and socioeconomic conditions. However, it remains unknown whether changes in SRB can be explained by observable macro-level socioeconomic variables across multiple years and countries. Here we show that changes in disposable income at the macro level positively predict SRB in OECD countries. A one standard deviation increase in the change of disposable income is associated with an increase of 1.03 male births per 1000 female births. The relationship is possibly nonlinear and driven by extreme changes. The association varies from country to country being particular strong in Estonia. This is the first evidence to show that economic and social conditions are connected to SRB across countries at the macro level. This calls for further research on the effects of societal conditions on general characteristics at birth.

  20. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  1. New Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Models Improve Predictability of Ames Mutagenicity for Aromatic Azo Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manganelli, Serena; Benfenati, Emilio; Manganaro, Alberto; Kulkarni, Sunil; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S; Honma, Masamitsu

    2016-10-01

    Existing Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have limited predictive capabilities for aromatic azo compounds. In this study, 2 new models were built to predict Ames mutagenicity of this class of compounds. The first one made use of descriptors based on simplified molecular input-line entry system (SMILES), calculated with the CORAL software. The second model was based on the k-nearest neighbors algorithm. The statistical quality of the predictions from single models was satisfactory. The performance further improved when the predictions from these models were combined. The prediction results from other QSAR models for mutagenicity were also evaluated. Most of the existing models were found to be good at finding toxic compounds but resulted in many false positive predictions. The 2 new models specific for this class of compounds avoid this problem thanks to a larger set of related compounds as training set and improved algorithms.

  2. Regional brain activity and strenuous exercise: predicting affective responses using EEG asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Eric E; Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Petruzzello, Steven J

    2007-05-01

    Previous research using the model proposed by Davidson has shown that resting frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) asymmetry can predict affective responses to aerobic exercise at moderate intensities. Specifically, greater relative left frontal activity has been shown to predict positive affect (i.e., energy) following exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if resting frontal EEG asymmetry would predict affective responses following strenuous exercise. Thirty participants (13 women, 17 men) completed a maximal graded exercise test on a treadmill. EEG was recorded prior to exercise. Affect was measured by the Activation Deactivation Adjective Check List prior to the graded exercise test, immediately following, 10 and 20-min following exercise. Greater relative left frontal activity predicted tiredness and calmness during recovery from exercise, but not tension or energy. Tiredness and calmness following exercise covaried, suggesting that tiredness following exercise might not have been linked with displeasure. These findings offer further support for the link between EEG asymmetry and affective responses to exercise.

  3. The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

    2010-01-01

    Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

  4. Learning new gait patterns: Exploratory muscle activity during motor learning is not predicted by motor modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Rajiv; Krishnan, Chandramouli; Dhaher, Yasin Y; Rymer, William Z

    2016-03-21

    The motor module hypothesis in motor control proposes that the nervous system can simplify the problem of controlling a large number of muscles in human movement by grouping muscles into a smaller number of modules. Here, we tested one prediction of the modular organization hypothesis by examining whether there is preferential exploration along these motor modules during the learning of a new gait pattern. Healthy college-aged participants learned a new gait pattern which required increased hip and knee flexion during the swing phase while walking in a lower-extremity robot (Lokomat). The new gait pattern was displayed as a foot trajectory in the sagittal plane and participants attempted to match their foot trajectory to this template. We recorded EMG from 8 lower-extremity muscles and we extracted motor modules during both baseline walking and target-tracking using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). Results showed increased trajectory variability in the first block of learning, indicating that participants were engaged in exploratory behavior. Critically, when we examined the muscle activity during this exploratory phase, we found that the composition of motor modules changed significantly within the first few strides of attempting the new gait pattern. The lack of persistence of the motor modules under even short time scales suggests that motor modules extracted during locomotion may be more indicative of correlated muscle activity induced by the task constraints of walking, rather than reflecting a modular control strategy.

  5. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  6. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  7. Early hematologic changes during prostate cancer radiotherapy predictive for late urinary and bowel toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkawa, Michael; Djukic, Victoria; Klotz, Jens; Holy, Richard; Eble, Michael J. [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Aachen (Germany); Ribbing, Carolina [RWTH Aachen University, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Aachen (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    The primary objective of the study was to identify early hematologic changes predictive for radiotherapy (RT)-associated genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxicity. In a group of 91 prostate cancer patients presenting for primary (n = 51) or postoperative (n = 40) curative RT, blood samples (blood count, acute phase proteins, and cytokines) were analyzed before (T1), three times during (T2-T4), and 6-8 weeks after (T5) radiotherapy. Before RT (baseline), on the last day (acute toxicity), a median of 2 months and 16 months (late toxicity) after RT, patients responded to a validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite). Acute score changes > 20 points and late changes > 10 points were considered clinically relevant. Radiotherapy resulted in significant changes of hematologic parameters, with the largest effect on lymphocytes (mean decrease of 31-45 %) and significant dependence on target volume. C-reactive protein (CRP) elevation > 5 mg/l and hemoglobin level decrease ≥ 5 G/1 at T2 were found to be independently predictive for acute urinary toxicity (p < 0.01, respectively). CRP elevation was predominantly detected in primary prostate RT (p = 0.02). Early lymphocyte level elevation ≥ 0.3G/l at T2 was protective against late urinary and bowel toxicity (p = 0.02, respectively). Other significant predictive factors for late bowel toxicity were decreasing hemoglobin levels (cut-off ≥ 5 G/l) at T2 (p = 0.04); changes of TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor; p = 0.03) and ferritin levels (p = 0.02) at T5. All patients with late bowel toxicity had interleukin (IL)-6 levels < 1.5 ng/l at T2 (63 % without; p = 0.01). Early hematologic changes during prostate cancer radiotherapy are predictive for late urinary and bowel toxicity. (orig.) [German] Das primaere Ziel der Studie war die Identifikation von fruehen haematologischen Veraenderungen mit praediktiver Bedeutung fuer radiotherapieassoziierte genitourinale und gastrointestinale Toxizitaet. In einer

  8. Early changes of procalcitonin predict bacteremia in patients with intensive care unit-acquired new fever

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; DU Bin; XU Ying-chun; RUI Xi; DU Wei; WANG Yao

    2013-01-01

    Background Rapid detection of bacteremia is important for critically ill patients.Procalcitonin (PCT) has emerged as a marker of sepsis,but its characterization for predicting bacteremia is still unclear.This study aimed to investigate the role of change of PCT within 6 to 12 hours after new fever in predicting bacteremia.Methods An observational study was conducted in the ICU of our hospital from January 2009 to March 2010.Adult patients with new fever were included and grouped as bacteremia and non bacteremia group.Serum PCT concentration was measured at admission and within 6 to12 hours after new fever (designated PCT0 and PCT1).Other results of laboratory tests and therapeutic interventions were recorded.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of bacteremia.The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was constructed to evaluate the discriminative power of variables to predict bacteremia.Results Totally 106 patients were enrolled,60 of whom had bacteremia and 46 did not have bacteremia,.The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were 13.1±7.8 and 5.0±2.2 at admission,respectively.There was no significant difference in PCT0 between the bacteremia group and nonbacteremia group; 1.27μg/L (range,0.10-33.3) vs.0.98μg/L (range,0.08-25.7),(P=-0.157).However,the PCT1 and the rate of change of PCT were significantly higher in bacteremia group; PCT1 was 6.73μg/L (1.13-120.10)vs.1.17μg/L (0.10-12.10) (P=0.001),and the rate of change was 5.62 times (1.05-120.6) vs.0.07 times (-0.03-0.18)(P<0.001).The area under the ROC curve (AUC; 95% confidence interval) of the rate of change of PCT was better for predicting bacteremia than that of PCT1; 0.864 (range,0.801-0.927) vs.0.715 (range,0.628-0.801),(P<0.05).The AUCs of PCT0 and other parameters (such as WBC count,granulocyte percentage and temperature) were not significantly different (all P>0

  9. The Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment: Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Social-Ecological Change in the Far North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, M. C.; Goetz, S. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Kimball, J. S.; Boelman, N.

    2015-12-01

    In the high northern latitudes, climate is warming more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, transforming vulnerable arctic tundra and boreal forest landscapes. These changes are altering the structure and function of energy, water and carbon cycles, producing significant feedbacks to regional and global climate through changes in energy, water and carbon cycles. These changes are also challenging local and global society. At the local level, communities seek to adapt to new social-ecological regimes. At the global level, changing arctic and boreal systems are increasing becoming the focus of policy discussions at all levels of decision-making. National and international scientific efforts associated with a new NASA field campaign, the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABOVE) will advance our ability to observe, understand and predict the complex, multiscale and non-linear processes that are confronting the natural and social systems in this rapidly changing region. Over the next decade, the newly assembled ABOVE Science Team will pursue this overarching question: "How vulnerable or resilient are ecosystems and society to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal region of western North America?" Through integration of remote sensing and in situ observations with modeling of both ecological and social systems, the ABOVE Science Team will advance an interdisciplinary understanding of the Far North. In this presentation, we will discuss the conceptual basis for the ABOVE Field Campaign, describe Science Team composition and timeline, and update the community on activities. In addition, we will reflect on the visionary role of Dr. Diane Wickland, retired NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program Manager and lead of the Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area, in the development and commencement of ABOVE.

  10. Age-related changes of frontal-midline theta is predictive of efficient memory maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardos, Z; Tóth, B; Boha, R; File, B; Molnár, M

    2014-07-25

    Frontal areas are thought to be the coordinators of working memory processes by controlling other brain areas reflected by oscillatory activities like frontal-midline theta (4-7 Hz). With aging substantial changes can be observed in the frontal brain areas, presumably leading to age-associated changes in cortical correlates of cognitive functioning. The present study aimed to test whether altered frontal-midline theta dynamics during working memory maintenance may underlie the capacity deficits observed in older adults. 33-channel EEG was recorded in young (18-26 years, N=20) and old (60-71 years, N=16) adults during the retention period of a visual delayed match-to-sample task, in which they had to maintain arrays of 3 or 5 colored squares. An additional visual odd-ball task was used to be able to measure the electrophysiological indices of sustained attentional processes. Old participants showed reduced frontal theta activity during both tasks compared to the young group. In the young memory maintenance-related frontal-midline theta activity was shown to be sensitive both to the increased memory demands and to efficient subsequent memory performance, whereas the old adults showed no such task-related difference in the frontal theta activity. The decrease of frontal-midline theta activity in the old group indicates that cerebral aging may alter the cortical circuitries of theta dynamics, thereby leading to age-associated decline of working memory maintenance function.

  11. Organizational changes to thyroid regulation in Alligator mississippiensis: evidence for predictive adaptive responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley S P Boggs

    Full Text Available During embryonic development, organisms are sensitive to changes in thyroid hormone signaling which can reset the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. It has been hypothesized that this developmental programming is a 'predictive adaptive response', a physiological adjustment in accordance with the embryonic environment that will best aid an individual's survival in a similar postnatal environment. When the embryonic environment is a poor predictor of the external environment, the developmental changes are no longer adaptive and can result in disease states. We predicted that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs and environmentally-based iodide imbalance could lead to developmental changes to the thyroid axis. To explore whether iodide or EDCs could alter developmental programming, we collected American alligator eggs from an estuarine environment with high iodide availability and elevated thyroid-specific EDCs, a freshwater environment contaminated with elevated agriculturally derived EDCs, and a reference freshwater environment. We then incubated them under identical conditions. We examined plasma thyroxine and triiodothyronine concentrations, thyroid gland histology, plasma inorganic iodide, and somatic growth at one week (before external nutrition and ten months after hatching (on identical diets. Neonates from the estuarine environment were thyrotoxic, expressing follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01 and elevated plasma triiodothyronine concentrations (p = 0.0006 closely tied to plasma iodide concentrations (p = 0.003. Neonates from the freshwater contaminated site were hypothyroid, expressing thyroid follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01 and depressed plasma thyroxine concentrations (p = 0.008. Following a ten month growth period under identical conditions, thyroid histology (hyperplasia p = 0.04; colloid depletion p = 0.01 and somatic growth (body mass p<0.0001; length p = 0.02 remained altered among the

  12. Diet Quality, Measured by Fruit and Vegetable Intake, Predicts Weight Change in Young Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haya M. Aljadani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between diet quality and weight gain in young women. Young women (, with 1,356 women identified as plausible subsample aged 27.6 ± 1.5 years at baseline sampled from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health study completed food frequency questionnaires in 2003, which were used to evaluate diet quality using three indices: Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS, Australian Diet Quality Index (Aus-DQI, and Fruit and Vegetable Index (FAVI. Weight was self-reported in 2003 and 2009. Multivariate linear regression was used to examine the association between tertiles of each diet quality index and weight change from 2003 to 2009. The ARFS and FAVI were significant predictors of 6-year weight change in this group of young women, while Aus-DQI did not predict weight change (. In the fully adjusted model, those who were in the top tertile of the ARFS significantly gained lower weight gain compared with the lower tertile for the plausible TEI sub-sample ( kg (95% CI: −2.67 to −0.56, . In the fully adjustment model, young women were classified in the highest FAVI tertile and gained significantly less weight than those in the lowest tertile for the plausible TEI ( kg (95% CI: −2.4 to −0.3 . In conclusion, overall diet quality measured by the ARFS and the frequency and variety of fruit and vegetable consumption may predict long-term weight gain in young women. Therefore, health promotion programs encouraging frequent consumption of a wide variety of fruits and vegetables are warranted.

  13. Diet quality, measured by fruit and vegetable intake, predicts weight change in young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljadani, Haya M; Patterson, Amanda; Sibbritt, David; Hutchesson, Melinda J; Jensen, Megan E; Collins, Clare E

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between diet quality and weight gain in young women. Young women (n = 4,287, with 1,356 women identified as plausible subsample aged 27.6 ± 1.5 years at baseline) sampled from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health study completed food frequency questionnaires in 2003, which were used to evaluate diet quality using three indices: Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS), Australian Diet Quality Index (Aus-DQI), and Fruit and Vegetable Index (FAVI). Weight was self-reported in 2003 and 2009. Multivariate linear regression was used to examine the association between tertiles of each diet quality index and weight change from 2003 to 2009. The ARFS and FAVI were significant predictors of 6-year weight change in this group of young women, while Aus-DQI did not predict weight change (P > 0.05). In the fully adjusted model, those who were in the top tertile of the ARFS significantly gained lower weight gain compared with the lower tertile for the plausible TEI sub-sample (β = -1.6 kg (95% CI: -2.67 to -0.56), P = 0.003). In the fully adjustment model, young women were classified in the highest FAVI tertile and gained significantly less weight than those in the lowest tertile for the plausible TEI (β = -1.6 kg (95% CI: -2.4 to -0.3) P = 0.01). In conclusion, overall diet quality measured by the ARFS and the frequency and variety of fruit and vegetable consumption may predict long-term weight gain in young women. Therefore, health promotion programs encouraging frequent consumption of a wide variety of fruits and vegetables are warranted.

  14. Neurobehavioral evidence for changes in dopamine system activity during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlstrom, Dustin; White, Tonya; Luciana, Monica

    2010-04-01

    Human adolescence has been characterized by increases in risk-taking, emotional lability, and deficient patterns of behavioral regulation. These behaviors have often been attributed to changes in brain structure that occur during this developmental period, notably alterations in gray and white matter that impact synaptic architecture in frontal, limbic, and striatal regions. In this review, we provide a rationale for considering that these behaviors may be due to changes in dopamine system activity, particularly overactivity, during adolescence relative to either childhood or adulthood. This rationale relies on animal data due to limitations in assessing neurochemical activity more directly in juveniles. Accordingly, we also present a strategy that incorporates molecular genetic techniques to infer the status of the underlying tone of the dopamine system across developmental groups. Implications for the understanding of adolescent behavioral development are discussed.

  15. Predicting Antitumor Activity of Peptides by Consensus of Regression Models Trained on a Small Data Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanka Jerić

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Predicting antitumor activity of compounds using regression models trained on a small number of compounds with measured biological activity is an ill-posed inverse problem. Yet, it occurs very often within the academic community. To counteract, up to some extent, overfitting problems caused by a small training data, we propose to use consensus of six regression models for prediction of biological activity of virtual library of compounds. The QSAR descriptors of 22 compounds related to the opioid growth factor (OGF, Tyr-Gly-Gly-Phe-Met with known antitumor activity were used to train regression models: the feed-forward artificial neural network, the k-nearest neighbor, sparseness constrained linear regression, the linear and nonlinear (with polynomial and Gaussian kernel support vector machine. Regression models were applied on a virtual library of 429 compounds that resulted in six lists with candidate compounds ranked by predicted antitumor activity. The highly ranked candidate compounds were synthesized, characterized and tested for an antiproliferative activity. Some of prepared peptides showed more pronounced activity compared with the native OGF; however, they were less active than highly ranked compounds selected previously by the radial basis function support vector machine (RBF SVM regression model. The ill-posedness of the related inverse problem causes unstable behavior of trained regression models on test data. These results point to high complexity of prediction based on the regression models trained on a small data sample.

  16. Can Gymnastic Teacher Predict Leisure Activity Preference among Children with Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCD)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Hanna-Kassis, Amany; Rosenblum, Sara

    2012-01-01

    The aims of the study were to analyze: (1) whether significant differences exist between children with typical development and children with developmental coordination disorders (DCD) in their preference to participate in leisure activities (2) whether the teacher estimation of activity form (TEAF) evaluation predicts participation preference.…

  17. Prediction of in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor activity using hierarchical clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, hierarchical clustering classification models were developed to predict in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor (ER) activity. Classification models were developed for binding, agonist, and antagonist in vitro ER activity and for mouse in vivo uterotrophic ER bindi...

  18. Activity-Driven CNS Changes in Learning and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-04-14

    comparble design to condition the H-reflex in the triceps surae of the leg. thereby eliminating the muscle spindle from the reflex arc."" The H-reflex...activity-driven change, that is, a memory trace, actually located in this pathway. ’ In this task, the animal maintain- a specified level of triceps surae ...background EMG. At an unpredictable time, bilateral voltage pulse elicit triceps surae H-reflexes from both legs. Under the "control-mode," liquid

  19. Angiography-based prediction of outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery versus changes in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eckardt, Rozy; Kjeldsen, Bo Juel; Haghfelt, Torben;

    2011-01-01

    The present study compared the clinical prediction of the effect of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) on coronary blood flow and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) with changes in gated myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. A prospective group of 92 patients underwent myocardial perfusion...... predicted and observed regional changes in coronary blood flow and perfusion defects were poor. LVEF increased (by over five ejection fraction units) in almost half of the patients, but with no correlation between the predicted and the observed changes. Based on clinical and angiographic findings...... scintigraphy before and 6 months after CABG, the results being kept secret from the surgeon. Based on clinical and angiographic findings, the surgeons filled in a questionnaire indicating the predicted changes in coronary blood flow in each of the three coronary artery territories and in the LVEF. Symptomatic...

  20. Cortical delta activity reflects reward prediction error and related behavioral adjustments, but at different times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, James F

    2015-04-15

    Recent work has suggested that reward prediction errors elicit a positive voltage deflection in the scalp-recorded electroencephalogram (EEG); an event sometimes termed a reward positivity. However, a strong test of this proposed relationship remains to be defined. Other important questions remain unaddressed: such as the role of the reward positivity in predicting future behavioral adjustments that maximize reward. To answer these questions, a three-armed bandit task was used to investigate the role of positive prediction errors during trial-by-trial exploration and task-set based exploitation. The feedback-locked reward positivity was characterized by delta band activities, and these related EEG features scaled with the degree of a computationally derived positive prediction error. However, these phenomena were also dissociated: the computational model predicted exploitative action selection and related response time speeding whereas the feedback-locked EEG features did not. Compellingly, delta band dynamics time-locked to the subsequent bandit (the P3) successfully predicted these behaviors. These bandit-locked findings included an enhanced parietal to motor cortex delta phase lag that correlated with the degree of response time speeding, suggesting a mechanistic role for delta band activities in motivating action selection. This dissociation in feedback vs. bandit locked EEG signals is interpreted as a differentiation in hierarchically distinct types of prediction error, yielding novel predictions about these dissociable delta band phenomena during reinforcement learning and decision making.

  1. Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertholet Nicolas

    2012-08-01

    longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62 was. Conclusions High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. Trial registration number ISRCTN78822107

  2. Changes in Circulating Procalcitonin Versus C-Reactive Protein in Predicting Evolution of Infectious Disease in Febrile, Critically Ill Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.H. Hoeboer (Sandra); A.B.J. Groeneveld (Johan)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractObjective:Although absolute values for C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) are well known to predict sepsis in the critically ill, it remains unclear how changes in CRP and PCT compare in predicting evolution of: infectious disease, invasiveness and severity (e.g. developmen

  3. Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchen, Zoe A; Gorelick, Root

    2017-03-01

    The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km(2) area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could

  4. Task-free MRI predicts individual differences in brain activity during task performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavor, I; Parker Jones, O; Mars, R B; Smith, S M; Behrens, T E; Jbabdi, S

    2016-04-01

    When asked to perform the same task, different individuals exhibit markedly different patterns of brain activity. This variability is often attributed to volatile factors, such as task strategy or compliance. We propose that individual differences in brain responses are, to a large degree, inherent to the brain and can be predicted from task-independent measurements collected at rest. Using a large set of task conditions, spanning several behavioral domains, we train a simple model that relates task-independent measurements to task activity and evaluate the model by predicting task activation maps for unseen subjects using magnetic resonance imaging. Our model can accurately predict individual differences in brain activity and highlights a coupling between brain connectivity and function that can be captured at the level of individual subjects.

  5. Changes in autonomic activity preceding onset of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, M.; Saitoh, H.; Sasabe, N.; Atarashi, H.; Katoh, T.; Hayakawa, H.; Cohen, R. J.

    1996-01-01

    Background: The triggering role of the autonomic nervous system in the initiation of ventricular tachycardia has not been established. To investigate the relationship between changes in autonomic activity and the occurrence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) we examined heart rate variability (HRV) during the 2-hour period preceding spontaneous episodes of NSVT. Twenty-four subjects were identified retrospectively as having had one episode of NSVT during 24-hour Holter ECC recording. Methods: We measured the mean interval between normal heats (meanRR), the standard deviation of the intervals between beats (SD), the percentage of counts of sequential intervals between normal beats with a change of >50 ms (%RR50), the logarithms of low- and high-frequency spectral components (lnLF, lnHF) of HRV for sequential 10-minute segments preceding NSVT. The correlation dimension (CDim) of HRV was calculated similarly for sequential 20-minute segments. We assessed the significance of the time-course change of each marker over the 120-minute period prior to NSVT onset. Results: MeanRR (P parasympathetic activity, perhaps in conjunction with an increase in sympathetic activity, may trigger NSVT.

  6. Activation of vegetated parabolic dunes into mobile barchans under potential environmental change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Na; Baas, Andreas C. W.

    2016-04-01

    Parabolic dunes are a quintessential example of the co-evolution of soil, landform, and vegetation, and they are found around the world, on coasts, river valleys, lake shores, and margins of deserts and steppes. These areas are often sensitive to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings and socio-economic activities. Some studies have indicated parabolic dunes can lose vegetation and transform into barchan and transverse dunes by environmental change such as decreased precipitation or lowered water table, as well as anthropogenic stress such as increased burning and grazing. These transformations and shifts between states of eco-geomorphic systems may have significant implications on land management and social-economic development. This study utilises the Extended-DECAL - parameterised by field measurements of dune topography and vegetation characteristics combined with remote sensing - to explore how increases in drought stress, wind strength, and grazing stress may lead to the activation of stabilised parabolic dunes into highly mobile barchans. The modelling results show that the mobility of an initial parabolic dune at the outset of perturbations determines to a large extent the capacity of a system to absorb the environmental change, and a slight increase in vegetation cover of an initial parabolic dune can increase the activation threshold significantly. Plants with a higher deposition tolerance increase the activation threshold for the climatic impact and sand transport rate, whereas the erosion tolerance of plants influences the patterns of resulting barchans. The change in the characteristics of eco-geomorphic interaction zones may indirectly reflect the dune stability and predict an ongoing transformation, whilst the activation angle may be potentially used as a proxy of environmental stresses. In contrast to the natural environmental changes which tend to affect relatively weak and young plants, grazing stress can exert a broader impact on all

  7. Endosulfan induces changes in spontaneous swimming activity and acetylcholinesterase activity of Jenynsia multidentata (Anablepidae, Cyprinodontiformes)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, M.L. [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Catedra Diversidad Animal II, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 299, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Durando, P.E. [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Departamento de Biologia, Catedra de Fisiologia Animal, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Complejo ' Islas Malvinas' , Av. Jose I. de la Roza y Meglioli, Rivadavia, San Juan (Argentina); Nores, M.L. [Facultad de Ciencias Medicas, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba-CONICET, Ciudad Universitaria, Cordoba (Argentina); Diaz, M.P. [Facultad de Ciencias Medicas, Catedra de Estadistica y Bioestadistica, Escuela de Nutricion, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Pabellon Chile, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Bistoni, M.A., E-mail: mbistoni@com.uncor.ed [Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales, Catedra Diversidad Animal II, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Av. Velez Sarsfield 299, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Wunderlin, D.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas, Dto. Bioquimica Clinica-CIBICI, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba-CONICET, Haya de la Torre esq. Medina Allende, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina)

    2009-05-15

    We assessed changes in spontaneous swimming activity and acetylcholinesterase (AchE) activity of Jenynsia multidentata exposed to Endosulfan (EDS). Females of J. multidentata were exposed to 0.072 and 1.4 mug L{sup -1} EDS. Average speed and movement percentage were recorded during 48 h. We also exposed females to EDS at five concentrations between 0.072 and 1.4 mug L{sup -1} during 24 h, and measured the AchE activity in brain and muscle. At 0.072 mug L{sup -1} EDS swimming motility decreased relative to the control group after 45 h, while at 1.4 mug L{sup -1} EDS swimming motility decreased after 24 h. AchE activity significantly decreased in muscle when J. multidentata were exposed to EDS above 0.072 mug L{sup -1}, while no significant changes were observed in brain. Thus, changes in swimming activity and AchE activity in muscle are good biomarkers of exposure to EDS in J. multidentata. - This work reports changes observed in spontaneous swimming activity and AchE activity of Jenynsia multidentata exposed to sublethal concentrations of Endosulfan.

  8. Soft tissue profile changes following mandibular advancement surgery: predictability and long-term outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobarak, K A; Espeland, L; Krogstad, O; Lyberg, T

    2001-04-01

    The objectives of this cephalometric study were to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular advancement surgery and to investigate the relationship between soft tissue and hard tissue movements. The sample consisted of 61 patients treated consecutively for mandibular retrognathism with orthodontic therapy combined with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken on 6 occasions: immediately before surgery, immediately after surgery, 2 and 6 months after surgery, and 1 and 3 years after surgery. Postsurgical changes in the upper and the lower lips and the mentolabial fold were more pronounced among low-angle cases compared with high-angle cases. In accordance with other studies, the soft tissue chin and the mentolabial fold were generally found to follow their underlying skeletal structures in a 1:1 ratio. Because of the strong influence skeletal relapse has on soft tissue profile changes, alternative ratios of soft tissue-to-hard tissue movement that accounted for mean relapse were also generated. It is suggested that if a more realistic long-term prediction of the postsurgical soft tissue profile is desirable, then ratios incorporating mean relapse should be used rather than estimates based on a 1:1 relationship.

  9. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake

    OpenAIRE

    Zhen Xu; Y. Jun Xu

    2016-01-01

    Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) change at a high frequency in water bodies is useful for water quality management. In this study, we developed a deterministic model that can predict hourly DO change in a water body with high frequency weather parameters. The study was conducted during August 2008–July 2009 in a eutrophic shallow lake in Louisiana, USA. An environment monitoring buoy was deployed to record DO, water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration at 15-min intervals, and hourly w...

  10. CHANG-ES - VIII. Uncovering hidden AGN activity in radio polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Judith A.; Schmidt, Philip; Damas-Segovia, A.; Beck, Rainer; English, Jayanne; Heald, George; Henriksen, Richard N.; Krause, Marita; Li, Jiang-Tao; Rand, Richard J.; Wang, Q. Daniel; Wiegert, Theresa; Kamieneski, Patrick; Paré, Dylan; Sullivan, Kendall

    2017-01-01

    We report on C-band (5-7 GHz) observations of the galaxy, NGC 2992, from the Continuum Halos in Nearby Galaxies - an EVLA Survey (CHANG-ES) sample. This galaxy displays an embedded nuclear double-lobed radio morphology within its spiral disc, as revealed in linearly polarized emission but not in total intensity emission. The radio lobes are kpc-sized, similar to what has been observed in the past for other Seyfert galaxies, and show ordered magnetic fields. NGC 2992 has shown previous evidence for AGN-related activity, but not the linearly polarized radio features that we present here. We draw attention to this galaxy as the first clear example (and prototype) of bipolar radio outflow that is revealed in linearly polarized emission only. Such polarization observations, which are unobscured by dust, provide a new tool for uncovering hidden weak active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity which may otherwise be masked by brighter unpolarized emission within which it is embedded. The radio lobes observed in NGC 2992 are interacting with the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) and offer new opportunities to investigate the interactions between nuclear outflows and the ISM in nearby galaxies. We also compare the radio emission with a new CHANDRA X-ray image of this galaxy. A new CHANG-ES image of NGC 3079 is also briefly shown as another example as to how much more obvious radio lobes appear in linear polarization as opposed to total intensity.

  11. Mapping ECoG channel contributions to trajectory and muscle activity prediction in human sensorimotor cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Yasuhiko; Yanagisawa, Takufumi; Shin, Duk; Kambara, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Natsue; Tanaka, Masataka; Fukuma, Ryohei; Kishima, Haruhiko; Hirata, Masayuki; Koike, Yasuharu

    2017-01-01

    Studies on brain-machine interface techniques have shown that electrocorticography (ECoG) is an effective modality for predicting limb trajectories and muscle activity in humans. Motor control studies have also identified distributions of “extrinsic-like” and “intrinsic-like” neurons in the premotor (PM) and primary motor (M1) cortices. Here, we investigated whether trajectories and muscle activity predicted from ECoG were obtained based on signals derived from extrinsic-like or intrinsic-like neurons. Three participants carried objects of three different masses along the same counterclockwise path on a table. Trajectories of the object and upper arm muscle activity were predicted using a sparse linear regression. Weight matrices for the predictors were then compared to determine if the ECoG channels contributed more information about trajectory or muscle activity. We found that channels over both PM and M1 contributed highly to trajectory prediction, while a channel over M1 was the highest contributor for muscle activity prediction. PMID:28361947

  12. Application of Artificial Intelligence to the Prediction of the Antimicrobial Activity of Essential Oils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daynac, Mathieu; Cortes-Cabrera, Alvaro; Prieto, Jose M

    2015-01-01

    Essential oils (EOs) are vastly used as natural antibiotics in Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM). Their intrinsic chemical variability and synergisms/antagonisms between its components make difficult to ensure consistent effects through different batches. Our aim is to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of their antimicrobial activity. Methods. The chemical composition and antimicrobial activity of 49 EOs, extracts, and/or fractions was extracted from NCCLS compliant works. The fast artificial neural networks (FANN) software was used and the output data reflected the antimicrobial activity of these EOs against four common pathogens: Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Candida albicans, and Clostridium perfringens as measured by standardised disk diffusion assays. Results. ANNs were able to predict >70% of the antimicrobial activities within a 10 mm maximum error range. Similarly, ANNs were able to predict 2 or 3 different bioactivities at the same time. The accuracy of the prediction was only limited by the inherent errors of the popular antimicrobial disk susceptibility test and the nature of the pathogens. Conclusions. ANNs can be reliable, fast, and cheap tools for the prediction of the antimicrobial activity of EOs thus improving their use in CAM.

  13. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts changes in depression in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Daele, Tom; Griffith, James W; Van den Bergh, Omer; Hermans, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated whether overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) predicts the course of symptoms of depression and anxiety in a community sample, after 5, 6, 12 and 18 months. Participants (N=156) completed the Autobiographical Memory Test and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) at baseline and were subsequently reassessed using the DASS-21 at four time points over a period of 18 months. Using latent growth curve modelling, we found that OGM was associated with a linear increase in depression. We were unable to detect changes over time in anxiety. OGM may be an important marker to identify people at risk for depression in the future, but more research is needed with anxiety.

  14. Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mestyán, Márton; Kertész, János

    2012-01-01

    Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies becomes a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. One of the natural application of this would be prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie could be predicted well in advance by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  15. Early prediction of movie box office success based on Wikipedia activity big data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márton Mestyán

    Full Text Available Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  16. Expression changes in the stroma of prostate cancer predict subsequent relapse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Jia

    Full Text Available Biomarkers are needed to address overtreatment that occurs for the majority of prostate cancer patients that would not die of the disease but receive radical treatment. A possible barrier to biomarker discovery may be the polyclonal/multifocal nature of prostate tumors as well as cell-type heterogeneity between patient samples. Tumor-adjacent stroma (tumor microenvironment is less affected by genetic alteration and might therefore yield more consistent biomarkers in response to tumor aggressiveness. To this end we compared Affymetrix gene expression profiles in stroma near tumor and identified a set of 115 probe sets for which the expression levels were significantly correlated with time-to-relapse. We also compared patients that chemically relapsed shortly after prostatectomy (<1 year, and patients that did not relapse in the first four years after prostatectomy. We identified 131 differentially expressed microarray probe sets between these two categories. 19 probe sets (15 genes overlapped between the two gene lists with p<0.0001. We developed a PAM-based classifier by training on samples containing stroma near tumor: 9 rapid relapse patient samples and 9 indolent patient samples. We then tested the classifier on 47 different samples, containing 90% or more stroma. The classifier predicted the risk status of patients with an average accuracy of 87%. This is the first general tumor microenvironment-based prognostic classifier. These results indicate that the prostate cancer microenvironment exhibits reproducible changes useful for predicting outcomes for patients.

  17. Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Thompson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Globally, many different kinds of water resources management issues call for policy and infrastructure based responses. Yet responsible decision making about water resources management raises a fundamental challenge for hydrologists: making predictions about water resources on decadal-to-century long timescales. Obtaining insight into hydrologic futures over 100 yr timescales forces researchers to address internal and exogenous changes in the properties of hydrologic systems. To do this, new hydrologic research must identify, describe and model feedbacks between water and other changing, coupled environmental subsystems. These models must be constrained to yield useful insights, despite the many likely sources of uncertainty in their predictions. Chief among these uncertainties are the impacts of the increasing role of human intervention in the global water cycle – a defining challenge for hydrology in the Anthropocene. Here we present a research agenda that proposes a suite of strategies to address these challenges. The research agenda focuses on the development of co-evolutionary hydrologic modeling to explore coupling across systems, and to address the implications of this coupling on the long-time behavior of the coupled systems. Three research directions support the development of these models: hydrologic reconstruction, comparative hydrology and model-data learning. These strategies focus on understanding hydrologic processes and feedbacks over long timescales, across many locations, and through strategic coupling of observational and model data in specific systems. We highlight the value of use-inspired and team-based science that is motivated by real-world hydrologic problems but targets improvements in fundamental understanding to support decision-making and management.

  18. Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, S. E.; Sivapalan, M.; Harman, C. J.; Srinivasan, V.; Hipsey, M. R.; Reed, P.; Montanari, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2013-12-01

    Globally, many different kinds of water resources management issues call for policy- and infrastructure-based responses. Yet responsible decision-making about water resources management raises a fundamental challenge for hydrologists: making predictions about water resources on decadal- to century-long timescales. Obtaining insight into hydrologic futures over 100 yr timescales forces researchers to address internal and exogenous changes in the properties of hydrologic systems. To do this, new hydrologic research must identify, describe and model feedbacks between water and other changing, coupled environmental subsystems. These models must be constrained to yield useful insights, despite the many likely sources of uncertainty in their predictions. Chief among these uncertainties are the impacts of the increasing role of human intervention in the global water cycle - a defining challenge for hydrology in the Anthropocene. Here we present a research agenda that proposes a suite of strategies to address these challenges from the perspectives of hydrologic science research. The research agenda focuses on the development of co-evolutionary hydrologic modeling to explore coupling across systems, and to address the implications of this coupling on the long-time behavior of the coupled systems. Three research directions support the development of these models: hydrologic reconstruction, comparative hydrology and model-data learning. These strategies focus on understanding hydrologic processes and feedbacks over long timescales, across many locations, and through strategic coupling of observational and model data in specific systems. We highlight the value of use-inspired and team-based science that is motivated by real-world hydrologic problems but targets improvements in fundamental understanding to support decision-making and management. Fully realizing the potential of this approach will ultimately require detailed integration of social science and physical science

  19. Functional trade-offs in succulent stems predict responses to climate change in columnar cacti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, David G; Hultine, Kevin R; Dettman, David L

    2014-07-01

    Columnar cacti occur naturally in many habitats and environments in the Americas but are conspicuously dominant in very dry desert regions. These majestic plants are widely regarded for their cultural, economic, and ecological value and, in many ecosystems, support highly diverse communities of pollinators, seed dispersers, and frugivores. Massive amounts of water and other resources stored in the succulent photosynthetic stems of these species confer a remarkable ability to grow and reproduce during intensely hot and dry periods. Yet many columnar cacti are potentially under severe threat from environmental global changes, including climate change and loss of habitat. Stems in columnar cacti and other cylindrical-stemmed cacti are morphologically diverse; stem volume-to-surface area ratio (V:S) across these taxa varies by almost two orders of magnitude. Intrinsic functional trade-offs are examined here across a broad range of V:S in species of columnar cacti. It is proposed that variation in photosynthetic gas exchange, growth, and response to stress is highly constrained by stem V:S, establishing a mechanistic framework for understanding the sensitivity of columnar cacti to climate change and drought. Specifically, species that develop stems with low V:S, and thus have little storage capacity, are expected to express high mass specific photosynthesis and growth rates under favourable conditions compared with species with high V:S. But the trade-off of having little storage capacity is that low V:S species are likely to be less tolerant of intense or long-duration drought compared with high V:S species. The application of stable isotope measurements of cactus spines as recorders of growth, water relations, and metabolic responses to the environment across species of columnar cacti that vary in V:S is also reviewed. Taken together, our approach provides a coherent theory and required set of observations needed for predicting the responses of columnar cacti to

  20. Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Renner

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009 presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We relate the concept to a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. We show that the concept is equivalent to the assumption that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing.

    Here, we use this assumption to derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity to climate. We show how, according to this assumption, climate sensitivity would be influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods and illustrated by three case studies. It appears that the largest differences between both approaches occur under limiting conditions. Specifically, the sensitivity framework based on the ecohydrological concept does not adhere to the water and energy limits, while the Budyko approach accounts for limiting conditions by increasing the sensitivity of streamflow to a catchment parameter encoding basin characteristics. Our findings do not support any application of the ecohydrological concept under conditions close to the water or energy limits, instead we suggest a correction based on the Budyko framework.

  1. Prediction of spatio-temporal patterns of neural activity from pairwise correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Marre, Olivier; Boustani, Sami El; Fregnac, Yves; Destexhe, Alain

    2009-01-01

    We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatio-temporal patterns significantly better than Ising models taking into acco...

  2. Planning versus action: Different decision-making processes predict plans to change one's diet versus actual dietary behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiviniemi, Marc T; Brown-Kramer, Carolyn R

    2015-05-01

    Most health decision-making models posit that deciding to engage in a health behavior involves forming a behavioral intention which then leads to actual behavior. However, behavioral intentions and actual behavior may not be functionally equivalent. Two studies examined whether decision-making factors predicting dietary behaviors were the same as or distinct from those predicting intentions. Actual dietary behavior was proximally predicted by affective associations with the behavior. By contrast, behavioral intentions were predicted by cognitive beliefs about behaviors, with no contribution of affective associations. This dissociation has implications for understanding individual regulation of health behaviors and for behavior change interventions.

  3. Changes of resting cerebral activities in subacute ischemic stroke patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to detect the difference in resting cerebral activities between ischemic stroke patients and healthy participants, define the abnormal site, and provide new evidence for pathological mechanisms, clinical diagnosis, prognosis prediction and efficacy evaluation of ischemic stroke. At present, the majority of functional magnetic resonance imaging studies focus on the motor dysfunction and the acute stage of ischemic stroke. This study recruited 15 right-handed ischemic stroke patients at subacute stage (15 days to 11.5 weeks and 15 age-matched healthy participants. A resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan was performed on each subject to detect cerebral activity. Regional homogeneity analysis was used to investigate the difference in cerebral activities between ischemic stroke patients and healthy participants. The results showed that the ischemic stroke patients had lower regional homogeneity in anterior cingulate and left cerebrum and higher regional homogeneity in cerebellum, left precuneus and left frontal lobe, compared with healthy participants. The experimental findings demonstrate that the areas in which regional homogeneity was different between ischemic stroke patients and healthy participants are in the cerebellum, left precuneus, left triangle inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior temporal gyrus and anterior cingulate. These locations, related to the motor, sensory and emotion areas, are likely potential targets for the neural regeneration of subacute ischemic stroke patients.

  4. Changes of resting cerebral activities in subacute ischemic stroke patients

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Wu; Fang Zeng; Yong-xin Li; Bai-li Yu; Li-hua Qiu; Wei Qin; Ji Li; Yu-mei Zhou; Fan-rong Liang

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to detect the difference in resting cerebral activities between ischemic stroke pa-tients and healthy participants, deifne the abnormal site, and provide new evidence for pathological mechanisms, clinical diagnosis, prognosis prediction and efifcacy evaluation of ischemic stroke. At present, the majority of functional magnetic resonance imaging studies focus on the motor dysfunc-tion and the acute stage of ischemic stroke. This study recruited 15 right-handed ischemic stroke patients at subacute stage (15 days to 11.5 weeks) and 15 age-matched healthy participants. A rest-ing-state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan was performed on each subject to detect cerebral activity. Regional homogeneity analysis was used to investigate the difference in cerebral activities between ischemic stroke patients and healthy participants. The results showed that the ischemic stroke patients had lower regional homogeneity in anterior cingulate and left cerebrum and higher regional homogeneity in cerebellum, left precuneus and left frontal lobe, compared with healthy participants. The experimental ifndings demonstrate that the areas in which regional homogeneity was different between ischemic stroke patients and healthy participants are in the cerebellum, left precuneus, left triangle inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior temporal gyrus and anterior cingulate. These locations, related to the motor, sensory and emotion areas, are likely po-tential targets for the neural regeneration of subacute ischemic stroke patients.

  5. Changes in CVD risk factors in the activity counseling trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan Baruth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Meghan Baruth1, Sara Wilcox1, James F Sallis3, Abby C King4,5, Bess H Marcus6, Steven N Blair1,21Department of Exercise Science, 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Public Health Research Center, Columbia, SC, USA; 3Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; 4Department of Health Research and Policy, 5Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; 6Behavioral and Social Sciences Section, Brown University Program in Public Health, Providence, RI, USAAbstract: Primary care facilities may be a natural setting for delivering interventions that focus on behaviors that improve cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors. The purpose of this study was to examine the 24-month effects of the Activity Counseling Trial (ACT on CVD risk factors, to examine whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status, and to examine whether changes in fitness were associated with changes in CVD risk factors. ACT was a 24-month multicenter randomized controlled trial to increase physical activity. Participants were 874 inactive men and women aged 35–74 years. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms that varied by level of counseling, intensity, and resource requirements. Because there were no significant differences in change over time between arms on any of the CVD risk factors examined, all arms were combined, and the effects of time, independent of arm, were examined separately for men and women. Time × Baseline risk factor status interactions examined whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status. Significant improvements in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C, and triglycerides were seen in

  6. Detection and prediction of land cover changes using Markov chain model in semi-arid rangeland in western Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathizad, Hassan; Rostami, Noredin; Faramarzi, Marzban

    2015-10-01

    The study of changes and destruction rate in the previous years as well as the possibility of prediction of these changes in the following years has a key role in optimal planning, controlling, and restricting non-normative changes in the future. This research was approached to detecting land use/cover changes (1985-2007) and to forecast the changes in the future (2021) use of multitemporal satellite imagery in semi-arid area in western Iran. A supervised classification of multilayer perceptron (MLP) was applied for detecting land use changes. The study area was classified into five classes, those of forest, rangeland, agriculture, residential, and barren lands. The change detection analysis indicated a decreasing trend in forest cover by 30.42%, while other land uses were increased during 1985 to 2007. The land use changes were predicted using Markov chain model for 2021. The model was calibrated by comparing the simulated map with the real detected classes of land cover in 2007. Then, for further model processing, an acceptable accuracy at 83% was achieved between them. Finally, land use changes were predicted by using transition matrix derived from calibrated approach. The findings of this study demonstrate a rapid change in land use/cover for the coming years. Transforming the forest into other land uses especially rangeland and cropland is the main land cover changes in the future. Therefore, the planning of protection and restoration of forest cover should be an essential program for decision-makers in the study area.

  7. Autonomous Motivation Predicts 7-Day Physical Activity in Hong Kong Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Amy S; Ng, Johan Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Autonomous motivation predicts positive health behaviors such as physical activity. However, few studies have examined the relation between motivational regulations and objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviors. Thus, we investigated whether different motivational regulations (autonomous motivation, controlled motivation, and amotivation) predicted 7-day physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of students. A total of 115 students (mean age = 11.6 years, 55.7% female) self-reported their motivational regulations and health-related quality of life. Physical activity and sedentary behaviors were measured using accelerometers for seven days. Using multilevel modeling, we found that autonomous motivation predicted higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, less sedentary behaviors, and better HRQoL. Controlled motivation and amotivation each only negatively predicted one facet of HRQoL. Results suggested that autonomous motivation could be an important predictor of physical activity behaviors in Hong Kong students. Promotion of this form of motivational regulation may also increase HRQoL.

  8. Prediction of objectively measured physical activity and sedentariness among blue-collar workers using survey questionnaires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Heiden, Marina; Mathiassen, Svend Erik;

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We aimed at developing and evaluating statistical models predicting objectively measured occupational time spent sedentary or in physical activity from self-reported information available in large epidemiological studies and surveys. METHODS: Two-hundred-and-fourteen blue-collar workers...... responded to a questionnaire containing information about personal and work related variables, available in most large epidemiological studies and surveys. Workers also wore accelerometers for 1-4 days measuring time spent sedentary and in physical activity, defined as non-sedentary time. Least......-squares linear regression models were developed, predicting objectively measured exposures from selected predictors in the questionnaire. RESULTS: A full prediction model based on age, gender, body mass index, job group, self-reported occupational physical activity (OPA), and self-reported occupational sedentary...

  9. Changes to coral health and metabolic activity under oxygen deprivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James W.A. Murphy

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available On Hawaiian reefs, the fast-growing, invasive algae Gracilaria salicornia overgrows coral heads, restricting water flow and light, thereby smothering corals. Field data shows hypoxic conditions (dissolved oxygen (DO2 < 2 mg/L occurring underneath algal mats at night, and concurrent bleaching and partial tissue loss of shaded corals. To analyze the impact of nighttime oxygen-deprivation on coral health, this study evaluated changes in coral metabolism through the exposure of corals to chronic hypoxic conditions and subsequent analyses of lactate, octopine, alanopine, and strombine dehydrogenase activities, critical enzymes employed through anaerobic respiration. Following treatments, lactate and octopine dehydrogenase activities were found to have no significant response in activities with treatment and time. However, corals subjected to chronic nighttime hypoxia were found to exhibit significant increases in alanopine dehydrogenase activity after three days of exposure and strombine dehydrogenase activity starting after one overnight exposure cycle. These findings provide new insights into coral metabolic shifts in extremely low-oxygen environments and point to ADH and SDH assays as tools for quantifying the impact of hypoxia on coral health.

  10. Changes to coral health and metabolic activity under oxygen deprivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Robert H.

    2016-01-01

    On Hawaiian reefs, the fast-growing, invasive algae Gracilaria salicornia overgrows coral heads, restricting water flow and light, thereby smothering corals. Field data shows hypoxic conditions (dissolved oxygen (DO2) < 2 mg/L) occurring underneath algal mats at night, and concurrent bleaching and partial tissue loss of shaded corals. To analyze the impact of nighttime oxygen-deprivation on coral health, this study evaluated changes in coral metabolism through the exposure of corals to chronic hypoxic conditions and subsequent analyses of lactate, octopine, alanopine, and strombine dehydrogenase activities, critical enzymes employed through anaerobic respiration. Following treatments, lactate and octopine dehydrogenase activities were found to have no significant response in activities with treatment and time. However, corals subjected to chronic nighttime hypoxia were found to exhibit significant increases in alanopine dehydrogenase activity after three days of exposure and strombine dehydrogenase activity starting after one overnight exposure cycle. These findings provide new insights into coral metabolic shifts in extremely low-oxygen environments and point to ADH and SDH assays as tools for quantifying the impact of hypoxia on coral health. PMID:27114888

  11. Practice induces function-specific changes in brain activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamar R van Raalten

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Practice can have a profound effect on performance and brain activity, especially if a task can be automated. Tasks that allow for automatization typically involve repeated encoding of information that is paired with a constant response. Much remains unknown about the effects of practice on encoding and response selection in an automated task. METHODOLOGY: To investigate function-specific effects of automatization we employed a variant of a Sternberg task with optimized separation of activity associated with encoding and response selection by means of m-sequences. This optimized randomized event-related design allows for model free measurement of BOLD signals over the course of practice. Brain activity was measured at six consecutive runs of practice and compared to brain activity in a novel task. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prompt reductions were found in the entire cortical network involved in encoding after a single run of practice. Changes in the network associated with response selection were less robust and were present only after the third run of practice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study shows that automatization causes heterogeneous decreases in brain activity across functional regions that do not strictly track performance improvement. This suggests that cognitive performance is supported by a dynamic allocation of multiple resources in a distributed network. Our findings may bear importance in understanding the role of automatization in complex cognitive performance, as increased encoding efficiency in early stages of practice possibly increases the capacity to otherwise interfering information.

  12. Changes of spontaneous oscillatory activity to tonic heat pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Peng

    Full Text Available Transient painful stimuli could induce suppression of alpha oscillatory activities and enhancement of gamma oscillatory activities that also could be greatly modulated by attention. Here, we attempted to characterize changes in cortical activities during tonic heat pain perception and investigated the influence of directed/distracted attention on these responses. We collected 5-minute long continuous Electroencephalography (EEG data from 38 healthy volunteers during four conditions presented in a counterbalanced order: (A resting condition; (B innoxious-distracted condition; (C noxious-distracted condition; (D noxious-attended condition. The effects of tonic heat pain stimulation and selective attention on oscillatory activities were investigated by comparing the EEG power spectra among the four experimental conditions and assessing the relationship between spectral power difference and subjective pain intensity. The change of oscillatory activities in condition D was characterized by stable and persistent decrease of alpha oscillation power over contralateral-central electrodes and widespread increase of gamma oscillation power, which were even significantly correlated with subjective pain intensity. Since EEG responses in the alpha and gamma frequency band were affected by attention in different manners, they are likely related to different aspects of the multidimensional sensory experience of pain. The observed contralateral-central alpha suppression (conditions D vs. B and D vs. C may reflect primarily a top-down cognitive process such as attention, while the widespread gamma enhancement (conditions D vs. A may partly reflect tonic pain processing, representing the summary effects of bottom-up stimulus-related and top-down subject-driven cognitive processes.

  13. Prediction of crack density and electrical resistance changes in indium tin oxide/polymer thin films under tensile loading

    KAUST Repository

    Mora Cordova, Angel

    2014-06-11

    We present unified predictions for the crack onset strain, evolution of crack density, and changes in electrical resistance in indium tin oxide/polymer thin films under tensile loading. We propose a damage mechanics model to quantify and predict such changes as an alternative to fracture mechanics formulations. Our predictions are obtained by assuming that there are no flaws at the onset of loading as opposed to the assumptions of fracture mechanics approaches. We calibrate the crack onset strain and the damage model based on experimental data reported in the literature. We predict crack density and changes in electrical resistance as a function of the damage induced in the films. We implement our model in the commercial finite element software ABAQUS using a user subroutine UMAT. We obtain fair to good agreement with experiments. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  14. Physical activity as an indicator of predictive functional disability in elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virtuoso Júnior, Jair Sindra; Tribess, Sheilla; Paulo, Thais Reis Silva De; Martins, Cristiane Alves; Romo-Perez, Vicente

    2012-01-01

    To analyze the time spent on physical activity in female and male individuals as a predictor of the absence of functional disability in older adults, a cross-sectional study was conducted with 624 individuals. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC) were constructed and compared to areas of physical activity by gender and the absence of functional disability. We identified cutoffs of physical activity (minutes / week) to predict the absence of functional disability (CI 95%). It was found that there is a higher area under the ROC curve for the time spent on physical activities in females. It was observed that 280 minutes / week (women) or 410 minutes / week (men) were the best cutoff points for predicting the absence of functional disability. Time spent on physical activity practices can serve as an important indicator to sort priority groups for certain interventions.

  15. Semi-active model predictive control for 3rd generation benchmark problem using smart dampers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Guiyun; Sun Bingnan; Lü Yanping

    2007-01-01

    A semi-active strategy for model predictive control (MPC), in which magneto-rheological dampers are used as an actuator, is presented for use in reducing the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings. A multi-step predictive model is developed to estimate the seismic performance of high-rise buildings, taking into account of the effects of nonlinearity, time-variability, model mismatching, and disturbances and uncertainty of controlled system parameters by the predicted error feedback in the multi-step predictive model. Based on the predictive model, a Kalman-Bucy observer suitable for semi-active strategy is proposed to estimate the state vector from the acceleration and semi-active control force feedback.The main advantage of the proposed strategy is its inherent stability, simplicity, on-line real-time operation, and the ability to handle nonlinearity, uncertainty, and time-variability properties of structures. Numerical simulation of the nonlinear seismic responses of a controlled 20-story benchmark building is carried out, and the simulation results are compared to those of other control systems. The results show that the developed semi-active strategy can efficiently reduce the nonlinear seismic response of high-rise buildings.

  16. Theoretically Predicted Descriptors Based Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship Study of the Activity of Acridines Against B-16 Melanoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahjat A. Saeed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The probability of success and reducing time and coast in drug discovery process could be increased on the basis of QSAR techniques. The study involves the QSAR investigation of 20 bioactive acridines that have activity against Approach: Molecular descriptors, total energy, van der Waals volume, molecular volume, HOMO energy, HOMO-LUMO energy gap, polarizability, refractivity, bond angle of C8-N9-C2 and bond length of C14-N6 were calculated. Initial geometry optimizations were carried out with RM1 Hamiltonian. Lowest energy conformers were subjected to single point calculations by DFT method. Several models for the prediction of biological activity have been drawn up by using the multiple regression technique. Results: Four models with R2 ranges from 0.88-0.93 were predicted. A model with hepta-parametric equation with R2 0.93 was used to predict the biological activities, the agreement between the observed and the predicted values was up to 93%. Conclusion: The biological activity of the studied acridines can be modeled with quantum chemical molecular descriptors.

  17. Prediction of booming sensation and its difference limen for just noticeable change in frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sung-Hwan; Ih, Jeong-Guon

    2003-10-01

    Among many auditory feelings for the car interior noise, the booming sensation is considered the most important nuisance to the passengers. Although there are many origins for the booming noise of vehicles in general, the most important one is the engine boom that consists of tonal components related to fundamental engine rotation and its harmonics including the firing frequency. Because the degree of booming sensation is increased when these tonal components are dominating in car interior noise, it is demanded to extract the aurally relevant tonal components only. Although the pitch extraction model based on the place theory enables to find aurally relevant tonal components, there is a difference between booming sensation and pitch perception according to a frequency change of the tonal component. In this study, a subjective listening test using a tracking method is performed to find the difference limen for just a noticeable change of booming sensation in frequency. By applying the resultant data and also the empirical data by Zwicker, the existing pitch extraction model is modified. This refined model and loudness analysis can be used for predicting the degree of booming sensation. [Work supported by the BK21 project and NRL.

  18. Monitoring off-gas O2/CO2 to predict nitrification performance in activated sludge processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leu, Shao-Yuan; Libra, Judy A; Stenstrom, Michael K

    2010-06-01

    Nitrification/denitrification (NDN) processes are the most widely used technique to remove nitrogenous pollutants from municipal wastewater. The performance of nitrogen removal in the NDN process depends on the metabolism of nitrifying bacteria, and is dependent on adequate oxygen supply. Off-gas testing is a convenient and popular method for measuring oxygen transfer efficiency (OTE) under process conditions and can be performed in real-time. Since carbon dioxide is produced by carbonaceous oxidizing organism and not by nitrifiers, it should be possible to use the off-gas carbon dioxide mole fraction to estimate nitrification performance independently of the oxygen uptake rate (OUR) or OTE. This paper used off-gas data with a dynamic model to estimate nitrifying efficiency for various activated sludge process conditions. The relationship among nitrification, oxygen transfer, carbon dioxide production, and pH change was investigated. Experimental results of an online off-gas monitoring for a full-scale treatment plant were used to validate the model. The results showed measurable differences in OUR and carbon dioxide transfer rate (CTR) and the simulations successfully predicted the effluent ammonia by using the measured CO(2) and O(2) contents in off-gas as input signal. Carbon dioxide in the off-gas could be a useful technique to control aeration and to monitor nitrification rate.

  19. PASS assisted prediction and pharmacological evaluation of novel nicotinic analogs for nootropic activity in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khurana, Navneet; Ishar, Mohan Pal Singh; Gajbhiye, Asmita; Goel, Rajesh Kumar

    2011-07-15

    The aim of present study is to predict the probable nootropic activity of novel nicotine analogues with the help of computer program, PASS (prediction of activity spectra for substances) and evaluate the same. Two compounds from differently substituted pyridines were selected for synthesis and evaluation of nootropic activity based on their high probable activity (Pa) value predicted by PASS computer program. Evaluation of nootropic activity of compounds after acute and chronic treatment was done with transfer latency (TL) and step down latency (SDL) methods which showed significant nootropic activity. The effect on scopolamine induced amnesia was also observed along with their acetylcholine esterase inhibitory activity which also showed positive results which strengthened their efficacy as nootropic agents through involvement of cholinergic system. This nootropic effect was similar to the effect of nicotine and donepezil used as standard drugs. Muscle coordination and locomotor activity along with their addiction liability, safety and tolerability studies were also evaluated. These studies showed that these compounds are well tolerable and safe over a wide range of doses tested along with the absence of withdrawal effect which is present in nicotine due to its addiction liability. The study showed that these compounds are true nicotine analogs with desirable efficacy and safety profile for their use as effective nootropic agents.

  20. Using Tree-Ring Width Data From 1000 Sites to Predict how American Forests Will Respond to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Still, C. J.; Leavitt, S. W.; Fischer, D. T.

    2007-12-01

    Beginning in the early 1900s, tree-ring scientists began analyzing the relative widths of annual growth rings preserved in the cross-sections of trees. Over the years, many ring-width index chronologies, each representing a specific site and species, have been developed and analyzed to infer details regarding past climate, growth response to environmental fluctuation, fire activity, logging practices by past societies, and more. Of the many ring-width chronologies constructed, 1035 represent sites within the continental United States and have been published online within The International Tree-Ring Data Bank as of September 2007 (ITRDB, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html). Approximately 85% of these sites are located west of the Mississippi River. Here we present results from a three-step study, using this large reserve of tree-growth data to determine how various tree species in various regions have responded to climate fluctuations in the past and how they can be expected to respond to future change. In the first step, we used linear regression to compare each time series of ring-width index values to a suite of local monthly climate variables that may influence tree growth, such as rainfall, temperature, and drought severity (PDSI). We identified the range of months (of a 24- month period) during which each climate parameter most strongly affects growth by comparing Pearson correlation coefficients. In the second step, we identified all sites where at least one climate parameter, during some rage of months, correlates significantly (95% confidence) with ring-width index values. For each of these sites, we constructed a growth model that uses each significantly correlating climate parameter as a growth predictor. In the third step, we applied the growth model to predict the next 100 years of growth response to a monthly climate forecast created by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. This forecast (HadCM3 IS92a) assumes a business as

  1. Organizational Changes to Thyroid Regulation in Alligator mississippiensis: Evidence for Predictive Adaptive Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggs, Ashley S. P.; Lowers, Russell H.; Cloy-McCoy, Jessica A.; Guillette, Louis J.

    2013-01-01

    During embryonic development, organisms are sensitive to changes in thyroid hormone signaling which can reset the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. It has been hypothesized that this developmental programming is a ‘predictive adaptive response’, a physiological adjustment in accordance with the embryonic environment that will best aid an individual's survival in a similar postnatal environment. When the embryonic environment is a poor predictor of the external environment, the developmental changes are no longer adaptive and can result in disease states. We predicted that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and environmentally-based iodide imbalance could lead to developmental changes to the thyroid axis. To explore whether iodide or EDCs could alter developmental programming, we collected American alligator eggs from an estuarine environment with high iodide availability and elevated thyroid-specific EDCs, a freshwater environment contaminated with elevated agriculturally derived EDCs, and a reference freshwater environment. We then incubated them under identical conditions. We examined plasma thyroxine and triiodothyronine concentrations, thyroid gland histology, plasma inorganic iodide, and somatic growth at one week (before external nutrition) and ten months after hatching (on identical diets). Neonates from the estuarine environment were thyrotoxic, expressing follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01) and elevated plasma triiodothyronine concentrations (p = 0.0006) closely tied to plasma iodide concentrations (p = 0.003). Neonates from the freshwater contaminated site were hypothyroid, expressing thyroid follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01) and depressed plasma thyroxine concentrations (p = 0.008). Following a ten month growth period under identical conditions, thyroid histology (hyperplasia p = 0.04; colloid depletion p = 0.01) and somatic growth (body mass p<0.0001; length p = 0.02) remained altered among the

  2. Batch Mode Active Learning for Regression With Expected Model Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenbin; Zhang, Muhan; Zhang, Ya

    2016-04-20

    While active learning (AL) has been widely studied for classification problems, limited efforts have been done on AL for regression. In this paper, we introduce a new AL framework for regression, expected model change maximization (EMCM), which aims at choosing the unlabeled data instances that result in the maximum change of the current model once labeled. The model change is quantified as the difference between the current model parameters and the updated parameters after the inclusion of the newly selected examples. In light of the stochastic gradient descent learning rule, we approximate the change as the gradient of the loss function with respect to each single candidate instance. Under the EMCM framework, we propose novel AL algorithms for the linear and nonlinear regression models. In addition, by simulating the behavior of the sequential AL policy when applied for k iterations, we further extend the algorithms to batch mode AL to simultaneously choose a set of k most informative instances at each query time. Extensive experimental results on both UCI and StatLib benchmark data sets have demonstrated that the proposed algorithms are highly effective and efficient.

  3. On the Use of Arabic Tweets to Predict Stock Market Changes in the Arab World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid AlKhatib

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Social media users nowadays express their opinions and feelings about many event occurring in their lives. For certain users, some of the most important events are the ones related to the financial markets. An interesting research field emerged over the past decade to study the possible relationship between the fluctuation in the financial markets and the online social media. In this research we present a comprehensive study to identify the relation between Arabic financial-related tweets and the change in stock markets using a set of the most active Arab stock indices. The results show that there is a Granger Causality relation between the volume and sentiment of Arabic tweets and the change in some of the stock markets.

  4. Predicting changes in aquatic toxicity of chemicals resulting from solvent or dispersant use as vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Mikio; Nakagawa, Masamitsu; Tone, Suguru; Saito, Hotaka; Niino, Tatsuhiro; Nagasawa, Natsumi; Sawai, Jun

    2016-07-01

    The influence of two vehicles (N,N-dimethylformamide [DMF] as solvent and polyoxyethylene hydrogenated castor oil [HCO-40] as a dispersant) on the acute toxicity of eight hydrophobic chemicals with a non-specific mode of action to Daphnia magna was investigated according to the OECD Guidelines for the Testing of Chemicals, No. 202. An increased 48-h EC50 value for D. magna or reduced toxicity resulting from the addition of HCO-40 to the test medium was observed for five of the eight chemicals examined. Each of eight chemicals was dissolved in water at a concentration of either 10 mg/L or 1.0 mg/L, with or without DMF or HCO-40. Silicone film as a model of a biological membrane was then immersed in each solution, and the concentration of each chemical in the water was monitored until equilibrium was reached for each test substance, after which the adsorbed amount of each chemical was determined. The amounts of p-pentylphenol and four other substances with log Pow (1-octanol/water partition coefficient) values greater than 3.4 adsorbed onto the silicone film decreased with increasing concentrations of HCO-40. However, 3-chloro-4-fluoronitrobenzene and two other substances with log Pow values less than 2.6 demonstrated no changes in adsorption with either increasing HCO-40 concentration or the addition of DMF. The reduced adsorption in the presence of a vehicle on the silicone film correlated closely with changes in toxicity. These results indicate that the methodology developed in this study enables the prediction of changes in toxicity resulting from the addition of vehicles to a test system.

  5. Change in Intra-Abdominal Fat Predicts the Risk of Hypertension in Japanese Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Catherine A; Kahn, Steven E; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

    2015-07-01

    In Japanese Americans, intra-abdominal fat area measured by computed tomography is positively associated with the prevalence and incidence of hypertension. Evidence in other populations suggests that other fat areas may be protective. We sought to determine whether a change in specific fat depots predicts the development of hypertension. We prospectively followed up 286 subjects (mean age, 49.5 years; 50.4% men) from the Japanese American Community Diabetes Study for 10 years. At baseline, subjects did not have hypertension (defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg) and were not taking blood pressure or glucose-lowering medications. Mid-thigh subcutaneous fat area, abdominal subcutaneous fat area, and intra-abdominal fat area were directly measured by computed tomography at baseline and 5 years. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds of incident hypertension over 10 years in relation to a 5-year change in fat area. The relative odds of developing hypertension for a 5-year increase in intra-abdominal fat was 1.74 (95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.37), after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, baseline intra-abdominal fat, alcohol use, smoking status, and weekly exercise energy expenditure. This relationship remained significant when adjusted for baseline fasting insulin and 2-hour glucose levels or for diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes mellitus classification. There were no significant associations between baseline and change in thigh or abdominal subcutaneous fat areas and incident hypertension. In conclusion, in this cohort of Japanese Americans, the risk of developing hypertension is related to the accumulation of intra-abdominal fat rather than the accrual of subcutaneous fat in either the thigh or the abdominal areas.

  6. A Model Predictive Algorithm for Active Control of Nonlinear Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Zhi Zhang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an improved nonlinear Active Noise Control (ANC system is achieved by introducing an appropriate secondary source. For ANC system to be successfully implemented, the nonlinearity of the primary path and time delay of the secondary path must be overcome. A nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC strategy is introduced to deal with the time delay in the secondary path and the nonlinearity in the primary path of the ANC system. An overall online modeling technique is utilized for online secondary path and primary path estimation. The secondary path is estimated using an adaptive FIR filter, and the primary path is estimated using a Neural Network (NN. The two models are connected in parallel with the two paths. In this system, the mutual disturbances between the operation of the nonlinear ANC controller and modeling of the secondary can be greatly reduced. The coefficients of the adaptive FIR filter and weight vector of NN are adjusted online. Computer simulations are carried out to compare the proposed nonlinear MPC method with the nonlinear Filter-x Least Mean Square (FXLMS algorithm. The results showed that the convergence speed of the proposed nonlinear MPC algorithm is faster than that of nonlinear FXLMS algorithm. For testing the robust performance of the proposed nonlinear ANC system, the sudden changes in the secondary path and primary path of the ANC system are considered. Results indicated that the proposed nonlinear ANC system can rapidly track the sudden changes in the acoustic paths of the nonlinear ANC system, and ensure the adaptive algorithm stable when the nonlinear ANC system is time variable.

  7. Functional Activities Questionnaire items that best discriminate and predict progression from clinically normal to mild cognitive impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Gad A.; Zoller, Amy S.; Lorius, Natacha; Amariglio, Rebecca E.; Locascio, Joseph J.; Johnson, Keith A.; Sperling, Reisa A.; Rentz, Dorene M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Impairment in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) emerges in the transition from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia. Some IADL scales are sensitive to early deficits in MCI, but none have been validated for detecting subtle functional changes in clinically normal (CN) elderly at risk for AD. Methods Data from 624 subjects participating in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and 524 subjects participating in the Massachusetts Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, which are two large cohorts including CN elderly and MCI subjects, were used to determine which Functional Activities Questionnaire items best discriminate between and predict progression from CN to MCI. Results We found that “Remembering appointments” and “assembling tax records” best discriminated between CN and MCI subjects, while worse performance on “paying attention and understanding a TV program”, “paying bills/balancing checkbook”, and “heating water and turning off the stove” predicted greater hazard of progressing from a diagnosis of CN to MCI. Conclusions These results demonstrate that certain questions are especially sensitive in detecting the earliest functional changes in CN elderly at risk for AD. As the field moves toward earlier intervention in preclinical AD, it is important to determine which IADL changes can be detected at that stage and track decline over time. PMID:26017560

  8. CHANGE OF CONTRACTOR FOR THE FACILITIES MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES AT CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The Facilities Management contract at CERN, under the responsibility of ST Division, Group FM, is in charge of the maintenance and minor works on tertiary installations (i.e. all structures and installations that have no direct relation to the running of the accelerators) for the following trades: - Technical: heating, ventilation, air conditioning, plumbing, electricity, civil engineering (painting, roofing, glazing, blinds, fencing, masonry etc.), cleansing, passenger and goods lifts, automatic and powered doors, kitchen equipment, roads, signs, keys and locks, office furniture, - Services: waste collection, security, green areas, cleaning and sanitary supplies, disinfection, rodent control and insect control. Starting from the 1st June the present contractor will stop some activities that will be taken under its responsibility by the new one, INGEST Facility. Others activities will be moved on the 1st July. Minor perturbation in the service might occur. The contact number will not change and will be opera...

  9. Periodic changes of the activity of processes in Jupiter's atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmachenko, A. P.

    2016-10-01

    Variations of the Earth jovimagnetic latitude on Jupiter are preferred in solar-driven changes of reflective properties of clouds and haze on Jupiter. Because of the orbit eccentricity (e=0,048450) the northern hemisphere receives 21% greater solar energy flow to the atmosphere, because Jupiter is in the perihelia near the time of the summer solstice. Results of our studies showed that the ratio of the brightness of the northern and southern tropical and temperate regions is evident factor of the photometric activity of the Jupiter's atmospheric processes. The obtained from the analysis of observational data for the period from 1962 to 2015 existence of variations of activity factor of the planet hemispheres with a period of 11.86 years has allowed us to talk about an existence of the seasonal reconstruction of the physical parameters of Jupiter's atmosphere.

  10. Changes in Endopeptidase Activity during Photosynthetic Declination in Rice Leaf

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENGZhi-rui; ZHANGRong-xian

    2004-01-01

    Two japonica rice varieties, Wuyujing 3 and 97-7, were used to study the changes in contents of soluble protein, free amino acids and endopeptidase activity, during photosynthetic declination. The content of soluble protein in flag leaf of cv.Wuyujing 3 was higher than that of cv. 97-7, but decreased rapidly in Wuyujing 3. Free amino acids in flag leaf and the thirteenth leaf of Wuyujing 3 started to increase 10 days before the turning point of photosynthetic declination (TPPD), while it occurred just 1-2 days before TPPD in the flag leaf and the thirteenth leaf of 97-7. During reversible phase of photosynthetic declination,endopeptidase activity remained at a low level and increased slightly only in the later part of this phase. Then it rose up rapidly at irreversible decline phase and reached a vety high level. For Wuyujing 3, the change in endopeptidase activity in the thirteenth leaf was parallel to that in flag leaf. However, for 97-7, the rapid increase of endopeptidase activity in the thirteenth leaf started later than that of flag leaf. The results implied that the rate of protein breakdown and conversion to transportable nitrogen in leaves of 97-7 was slower than that in leaves of Wuyujing 3 during photosynthetic declination and it led to relativeh" lower seed setting rate and fully filling grains rate in 97-7. This may be one of the important reasons why 97-7 could not bring the high yicld potentiality into play and the findings may be taken into consideration while breeding for high potential varieties in future.

  11. Changes in Endopeptidase Activity during Photosynthetic Declination in Rice Leaf

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENG Zhi-rui; ZHANG Rong-xian

    2004-01-01

    Two japonica rice varieties, Wuyujing 3 and 97-7, were used to study the changes in contents of soluble protein, free amino acids and endopeptidase activity during photosynthetic declination. The content of soluble protein in flag leaf of cv.Wuyujing 3 was higher than that of cv. 97-7, but decreased rapidly in Wuyujing 3. Free amino acids in flag leaf and the thirteenth leaf of Wuyujing 3 started to increase 10 days before the turning point of photosynthetic declination (TPPD), while it occurred just 1-2 days before TPPD in the flag leaf and the thirteenth leaf of 97-7. During reversible phase of photosynthetic declination,endopeptidase activity remained at a low level and increased slightly only in the later part of this phase. Then it rose up rapidly at irreversible decline phase and reached a very high level. For Wuyujing 3, the change in endopeptidase activity in the thirteenth leaf was parallel to that in flag leaf. However, for 97-7, the rapid increase of endopeptidase activity in the thirteenth leaf started later than that of flag leaf. The results implied that the rate of protein breakdown and conversion to transportable nitrogen in leaves of 97-7 was slower than that in leaves of Wuyujing 3 during photosynthetic declination and it led to relatively lower seed setting rate and fully filling grains rate in 97-7. This may be one of the important reasons why 97-7 could not bring the high yield potentiality into play and the findings may be taken into consideration while breeding for high potential varieties in future.

  12. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker James R

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948 and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources

  13. Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Duma

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998. This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth’s magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-variations, in this geodynamic process of changing earthquake activity with the time of day (Duma, 1996, 1999. In the article it is attempted to quantify the forces which result from the interaction between the induced Sq-variation currents in the Earth’s lithosphere and the regional Earth’s magnetic field, in order to assess the influence on the tectonic stress field and on seismic activity. A reliable model is obtained, which indicates a high energy involved in this process. The effect of Sq-induction is compared with the results of the large scale electromagnetic experiment "Khibiny" (Velikhov, 1989, where a giant artificial current loop was activated in the Barents Sea.

  14. Change in hormones reflecting sympathetic activity in the Finnish sauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammintausta, R; Syvälahti, E; Pekkarinen, A

    1976-08-01

    The effects of the high temperature (80-120 degrees C) of the Finnish Sauna bath on the concentrations of growth hormone, immunoreactive insulin and renin activity in plasma, on blood glucose and on the urinary excretion of aldosterone, vanilmandelic acid and sodium of 55 healthy volunteers were studied. There was a significant increase in mean heart rate (62%), serum growth hormone (142%) and plasma renin activity (95%) in the Sauna. One hour after the Sauna bath the mean serum growth hormone had returned to the control level while plasma renin activity still remained higher (p less than 0.05) than before the Sauna bath. The serum insulin, blood sugar and urinary excretion of aldosterone and VMA did not change during or after Sauna bath. The urinary sodium excretion decreased significantly after the Sauna bath and the decrease was most striking (46%) during the first 6-hour period from the beginning of Sauna bath. Plasma renin activity values correlated positively with 12-hour urinary VMA excretion (p less than 0.01) and negatively with 6-hour urinary sodium excretion (p less than 0.05) before and after Sauna, suggesting the role of catecholamines and sodium depletion in renin response in Sauna.

  15. Changes in baseball batters' brain activity with increased pitch choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Kwangmin; Kim, Jingu; Ali, Asif; Kim, Woojong; Radlo, Steven J

    2015-09-01

    In baseball, one factor necessary for batters to decide whether to swing or not depends on what type of pitch is thrown. Oftentimes batters will look for their pitch (i.e., waiting for a fastball). In general, when a pitcher has many types of pitches in his arsenal, batters will have greater difficulty deciding upon the pitch thrown. Little research has been investigated the psychophysiology of a batters decision-making processes. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to determine how brain activation changes according to an increase in the number of alternatives (NA) available. A total of 15 male college baseball players participated in this study. The stimuli used in this experiment were video clips of a right-handed pitcher throwing fastball, curve, and slider pitches. The task was to press a button after selecting the fastball as the target stimulus from two pitch choices (fastball and curve), and then from three possibilities (fastball, curve, and slider). Functional and anatomic image scanning magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) runs took 4 and 5[Formula: see text]min, respectively. According to our analysis, the right precentral gyrus, left medial frontal gyrus, and right fusiform gyrus were activated when the NA was one. The supplementary motor areas (SMA) and primary motor cortex were activated when there were two alternatives to choose from and the inferior orbitofrontal gyrus was specifically activated with three alternatives. Contrary to our expectations, the NA was not a critical factor influencing the activation of related decision making areas when the NA was compared against one another. These findings highlight that specific brain areas related to decision making were activated as the NA increased.

  16. Age-associated changes in the level of physical activity in elderly adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Daisuke; Nishida, Yuusuke; Fujita, Daisuke

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to clarify how light-, moderate-, and vigorous-intensity physical activity in older adults changes with age, subdividing physical activity according to intensity levels, by using an accelerometer. [Subjects] Older adults living independently in the community were included (n = 106, age: 65–85 years). [Methods] A triaxial accelerometer was used to measure the amount of light-, moderate-, and vigorous-intensity physical activity (1–2.9, 3–5.9, and ≥6 metabolic equivalents, respectively) and inactive time over 7 days. Light- and moderate-intensity physical activity levels were further subdivided into 1–1.9, 2–2.9, 3–3.9, and 4–5.9 metabolic equivalents, respectively. [Results] The amount of moderate-intensity physical activity at both sub-levels showed significant inverse correlations with age (r = −0.34, −0.33, respectively), but this was not seen with other levels. Both levels of moderate-intensity physical activity were independently predicted by age using multiple regression analysis adjusted for gender and body mass index. [Conclusion] These results suggest that understanding the reduction in moderate-intensity physical activity with age in older adults, subdivided according to intensity level, could be a useful index to increase the amount of higher intensity physical activity in stages, considering individual health conditions. PMID:26834332

  17. Pons to Posterior Cingulate Functional Projections Predict Affective Processing Changes in the Elderly Following Eight Weeks of Meditation Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Robin; Keuper, Kati; Geng, Xiujuan; Lee, Tatia M C

    2016-08-01

    Evidence indicates meditation facilitates affective regulation and reduces negative affect. It also influences resting-state functional connectivity between affective networks and the posterior cingulate (PCC)/precuneus, regions critically implicated in self-referential processing. However, no longitudinal study employing active control group has examined the effect of meditation training on affective processing, PCC/precuneus connectivity, and their association. Here, we report that eight-week meditation, but not relaxation, training 'neutralized' affective processing of positive and negative stimuli in healthy elderly participants. Additionally, meditation versus relaxation training increased the positive connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and the pons, the direction of which was largely directed from the pons to the PCC/precuneus, as revealed by dynamic causal modeling. Further, changes in connectivity between the PCC/precuneus and pons predicted changes in affective processing after meditation training. These findings indicate meditation promotes self-referential affective regulation based on increased regulatory influence of the pons on PCC/precuneus, which new affective-processing strategy is employed across both resting state and when evaluating affective stimuli. Such insights have clinical implications on interventions on elderly individuals with affective disorders.

  18. Music-induced emotions can be predicted from a combination of brain activity and acoustic features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Ian; Williams, Duncan; Hallowell, James; Hwang, Faustina; Kirke, Alexis; Malik, Asad; Weaver, James; Miranda, Eduardo; Nasuto, Slawomir J

    2015-12-01

    It is widely acknowledged that music can communicate and induce a wide range of emotions in the listener. However, music is a highly-complex audio signal composed of a wide range of complex time- and frequency-varying components. Additionally, music-induced emotions are known to differ greatly between listeners. Therefore, it is not immediately clear what emotions will be induced in a given individual by a piece of music. We attempt to predict the music-induced emotional response in a listener by measuring the activity in the listeners electroencephalogram (EEG). We combine these measures with acoustic descriptors of the music, an approach that allows us to consider music as a complex set of time-varying acoustic features, independently of any specific music theory. Regression models are found which allow us to predict the music-induced emotions of our participants with a correlation between the actual and predicted responses of up to r=0.234,pemotions can be predicted by their neural activity and the properties of the music. Given the large amount of noise, non-stationarity, and non-linearity in both EEG and music, this is an encouraging result. Additionally, the combination of measures of brain activity and acoustic features describing the music played to our participants allows us to predict music-induced emotions with significantly higher accuracies than either feature type alone (p<0.01).

  19. The CR‐Ω+ Classification Algorithm for Spatio‐Temporal Prediction of Criminal Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Godoy‐Calderón

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a spatio‐temporal prediction model that allows forecasting of the criminal activity behavior in a particular region byusing supervised classification. The degree of membership of each pattern is interpreted as the forecasted increase or decreasein the criminal activity for the specified time and location. The proposed forecasting model (CR‐Ω+ is based on the family ofKora‐Ω Logical‐Combinatorial algorithms operating on large data volumes from several heterogeneous sources using aninductive learning process. We propose several modifications to the original algorithms by Bongard and Baskakova andZhuravlëv which improve the prediction performance on the studied dataset of criminal activity. We perform two analyses:punctual prediction and tendency analysis, which show that it is possible to predict punctually one of four crimes to beperpetrated (crime family, in a specific space and time, and 66% of effectiveness in the prediction of the place of crime, despiteof the noise of the dataset. The tendency analysis yielded an STRMSE (Spatio‐Temporal RMSE of less than 1.0.

  20. Neural Activities Underlying the Feedback Express Salience Prediction Errors for Appetitive and Aversive Stimuli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yan; Hu, Xueping; Pan, Weigang; Yang, Chun; Wang, Lijun; Li, Yiyuan; Chen, Antao

    2016-01-01

    Feedback information is essential for us to adapt appropriately to the environment. The feedback-related negativity (FRN), a frontocentral negative deflection after the delivery of feedback, has been found to be larger for outcomes that are worse than expected, and it reflects a reward prediction error derived from the midbrain dopaminergic projections to the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), as stated in reinforcement learning theory. In contrast, the prediction of response-outcome (PRO) model claims that the neural activity in the mediofrontal cortex (mPFC), especially the ACC, is sensitive to the violation of expectancy, irrespective of the valence of feedback. Additionally, increasing evidence has demonstrated significant activities in the striatum, anterior insula and occipital lobe for unexpected outcomes independently of their valence. Thus, the neural mechanism of the feedback remains under dispute. Here, we investigated the feedback with monetary reward and electrical pain shock in one task via functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results revealed significant prediction-error-related activities in the bilateral fusiform gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus and left cingulate gyrus for both money and pain. This implies that some regions underlying the feedback may signal a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. PMID:27694920

  1. Structure-Functional Study of Tyrosine and Methionine Dipeptides: An Approach to Antioxidant Activity Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Torkova

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Quantum chemical methods allow screening and prediction of peptide antioxidant activity on the basis of known experimental data. It can be used to design the selective proteolysis of protein sources in order to obtain products with antioxidant activity. Molecular geometry and electronic descriptors of redox-active amino acids, as well as tyrosine and methionine-containing dipeptides, were studied by Density Functional Theory method. The calculated data was used to reveal several descriptors responsible for the antioxidant capacities of the model compounds based on their experimentally obtained antioxidant capacities against ABTS (2,2′-Azino-bis-(3-ethyl-benzothiazoline-6-sulfonate and peroxyl radical. A formula to predict antioxidant activity of peptides was proposed.

  2. A chemometric approach for prediction of antifungal activity of some benzoxazole derivatives against Candida albicans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Podunavac-Kuzmanović Sanja O.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to promote and facilitate prediction of antifungal activity of the investigated series of benzoxazoles against Candida albicans. The clinical importance of this investigation is to simplify design of new antifungal agents against the fungi which can cause serious illnesses in humans. Quantitative structure activity relationship analysis was applied on nineteen benzoxazole derivatives. A multiple linear regression (MLR procedure was used to model the relationships between the molecular descriptors and the antifungal activity of benzoxazole derivatives. Two mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for predicting the inhibitory activity of this class of compounds against Candida albicans. The quality of the models was validated by the leave-one-out technique, as well as by the calculation of statistical parameters for the established model. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172012 i br. 172014

  3. Predictive Duty Cycle Control of Three-Phase Active-Front-End Rectifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Zhanfeng; Tian, Yanjun; Chen, Wei;

    2016-01-01

    of optimal duty cycles is made by predicting the effect of duty cycles on instantaneous current variations and minimizing the cost function. Due to the adoption of behavior prediction, the proposed controller inherits the excellent dynamic characteristics of predictive controllers. Moreover, the application......This paper proposed an on-line optimizing duty cycle control approach for three-phase active-front-end rectifiers, aiming to obtain the optimal control actions under different operating conditions. Similar to finite control set model predictive control strategy, a cost function previously...... of optimal duty cycles determined by cost function minimization automatically ensures optimum operations of converters within each sampling period. Improved transient and steady-state features of the proposed strategy are confirmed by experimental validations and in-depth comparisons with linear controllers...

  4. Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Laura M. Tully, PhD; Sarah Hope Lincoln, MA; Christine I. Hooker, PhD

    2014-01-01

    LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investiga...

  5. Prediction Model of Antibacterial Activities for Inorganic Antibacterial Agents Based on Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘雪峰; 张利; 涂铭旌

    2004-01-01

    Quantitatively evaluation of antibacterial activities of inorganic antibacterial agents is an urgent problem to be solved. Using experimental data by an orthogonal design, a prediction model of the relation between conditions of preparing inorganic antibacterial agents and their antibacterial activities has been developed. This is accomplished by introducing BP artificial neural networks in the study of inorganic antibacterial agents..It provides a theoretical support for the development and research on inorganic antibacterial agents.

  6. Extended XG Equation for the Prediction of Adsorption Equilibrium of Vapor Mixture on Activated Carbon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢自立; 敦坤敏; 吴菊芳; 袁存禾

    2003-01-01

    The XG equation, which is developed by us previously for describing the adsorption equilibrium of pure vapor on activated carbon, is extended to multi-component system. Verified by experimental data, the extended XG equation was found to be more successful in predicting the adsorption equilibrium of vapor mixture on activated carbon than the extended Langmuir equation, the extended BET equation and the ideal adsorbed solution theory (IAST).

  7. Evidence that changes in social cognitions predict changes in self-reported driver behavior: Causal analyses of two-wave panel data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Mark A; Thomson, James A; Robertson, Kirsty; Stephenson, Carry; Wicks, John

    2013-01-01

    Previous research on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) is characterized by cross-sectional tests of the model's proposed causal relationships. In the absence of effective experimental techniques for changing the TPB's cognitive antecedents, the present research aimed to provide a stronger non-experimental test of the model, using causal analyses of two-wave panel data. Two studies of driver behavior were conducted in which naturally occurring within-participant changes in TPB constructs were measured over time, and used to predict corresponding within-participant changes in both intentions and behavior. A two-wave panel design was used in both studies. Study 1 had a one-month gap between baseline and follow-up. At both waves, a convenience sample comprising predominantly university students (N=135) completed questionnaire measures of all TPB cognitions and behavior (compliance with speed limits in urban areas). Cross-lagged multiple regressions and bootstrapping procedures for testing multiple mediators supported all of the relationships proposed by the TPB. These findings were extended in study 2 using a large, non-student sample of speed limit offenders (N=1149), a six-month gap between baseline and follow-up, and a larger number of cognitive antecedents. Participants completed postal questionnaires at both waves to measure all cognitions proposed by the two-component TPB, along with moral norm, anticipated regret, self-identity and speeding on urban roads, country roads, and fast dual carriageways or motorways. Changes in instrumental and affective attitude, descriptive norm, self-efficacy, moral norm, anticipated regret and self-identity predicted changes in intention to speed. Changes in intention and self-efficacy predicted behavior-change. Injunctive norm and perceived controllability did not predict intention or behavior-change. Additionally, direct (unhypothesized) relationships with behavior were found for affective attitude, descriptive norm and

  8. Engineering design activities and conceptual change in middle school science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnittka, Christine G.

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the impact of engineering design classroom activities on conceptual change in science, and on attitudes toward and knowledge about engineering. Students were given a situated learning context and a rationale for learning science in an active, inquiry-based method, and worked in small collaborative groups. One eighth-grade physical science teacher and her students participated in a unit on heat transfer and thermal energy. One class served as the control while two others received variations of an engineering design treatment. Data were gathered from teacher and student entrance and exit interviews, audio recordings of student dialog during group work, video recordings and observations of all classes, pre- and posttests on science content and engineering attitudes, and artifacts and all assignments completed by students. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected concurrently, but analysis took place in two phases. Qualitative data were analyzed in an ongoing manner so that the researcher could explore emerging theories and trends as the study progressed. These results were compared to and combined with the results of the quantitative data analysis. Analysis of the data was carried out in the interpretive framework of analytic induction. Findings indicated that students overwhelmingly possessed alternative conceptions about heat transfer, thermal energy, and engineering prior to the interventions. While all three classes made statistically significant gains in their knowledge about heat and energy, students in the engineering design class with the targeted demonstrations made the most significant gains over the other two other classes. Engineering attitudes changed significantly in the two classes that received the engineering design intervention. Implications from this study can inform teachers' use of engineering design activities in science classrooms. These implications are: (1) Alternative conceptions will

  9. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang

    2016-07-01

    Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

  10. Relation Between Equatorial Oceanic Activities and LOD Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑大伟; 陈刚

    1994-01-01

    The time series of the length of day (LOD) and the observational Pacific sea level during l962.0-1990.0 are used to study the relation between Earth rotation and equatorial oceanic activities.The results show that (i) the sea level is apparently rising at an average rate of about 1.75±.01mm/a during the past 30 years,(ii) there are large-scale eastward and westward water motions in the upper equatorial Pacific zone,which,according to the dynamical analysis of the angular momentum of the large-scale sea water motion in Pacific Ocean related to the Earth rotation axis accounts for about 30% of the change in ititerannual Eatlh rotation rate; (iii) the interannual changes in Earth rotation also cause changes in the distribution of the water mass in equatorial Pacific,and affect the formation of ENSO events.Based on these results,we give a new model for the interaction between equatorial ocean and Earth rotation.

  11. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables t

  12. The Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE Questionnaire; Does It Predict Physical Health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence L. Spriet

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A lack of physical activity is common in older adults. With the increasing Canadian senior population, identifying the minimum amount of physical activity required to maintain the health of older adults is essential. This study determined whether relationships existed between the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE questionnaire scores and health-related measurements in community-dwelling older adults who were meal delivery volunteers. Based on observed relationships between PASE scores and health parameters, the study attempted to predict an optimal PASE score that would ensure health parameters fell in desired ranges for older adults. 297 community-dwelling older adults (61.3% female 60–88 years (72.1 ± 6.5 completed the PASE and were measured for body composition, cardiovascular and blood parameters, flexibility, and handgrip strength. Significant regression models using PASE were produced for the health-related measures, but the relationships were not meaningful due to low predictive capacity. However, correlational data suggested that a minimum PASE score of ~140 for males and ~120 for females predicted a favorable waist circumference. In conclusion, findings demonstrated that PASE scores cannot be used to predict healthy physical measures, although the relationships between PASE and WC could be used to encourage older adults to become more physically active.

  13. Prediction of activation energies for hydrogen abstraction by cytochrome p450

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Lars; Rydberg, Patrik; Rod, Thomas Holm;

    2006-01-01

    kJ/mol, respectively). We can assign activation energies of 74, 61, 53, 47, and 30 kJ/mol to primary carbons, secondary/tertiary carbons, carbons with adjacent sp(2) or aromatic groups, ethers/thioethers, and amines, respectively, which gives a very simple and predictive model. Finally, some...

  14. QSAR classification models for the prediction of endocrine disrupting activity of brominated flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovarich, Simona; Papa, Ester; Gramatica, Paola

    2011-06-15

    The identification of potential endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals is an important task for the scientific community due to their diffusion in the environment; the production and use of such compounds will be strictly regulated through the authorization process of the REACH regulation. To overcome the problem of insufficient experimental data, the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach is applied to predict the ED activity of new chemicals. In the present study QSAR classification models are developed, according to the OECD principles, to predict the ED potency for a class of emerging ubiquitary pollutants, viz. brominated flame retardants (BFRs). Different endpoints related to ED activity (i.e. aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonism and antagonism, estrogen receptor agonism and antagonism, androgen and progesterone receptor antagonism, T4-TTR competition, E2SULT inhibition) are modeled using the k-NN classification method. The best models are selected by maximizing the sensitivity and external predictive ability. We propose simple QSARs (based on few descriptors) characterized by internal stability, good predictive power and with a verified applicability domain. These models are simple tools that are applicable to screen BFRs in relation to their ED activity, and also to design safer alternatives, in agreement with the requirements of REACH regulation at the authorization step.

  15. PREDICTING THE ADSORPTION CAPACITY OF ACTIVATED CARBON FOR ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS FROM ADSORBENT AND ADSORBATE PROPERTIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) was developed and combined with the Polanyi-Dubinin-Manes model to predict adsorption isotherms of emerging contaminants on activated carbons with a wide range of physico-chemical properties. Affinity coefficients (βl

  16. Predicting Social Responsibility and Belonging in Urban After-School Physical Activity Programs with Underserved Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; Byrd, Brigid; Garn, Alex; McCaughtry, Nate; Kulik, Noel; Centeio, Erin

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this cross sectional study was to predict feelings of belonging and social responsibility based on the motivational climate perceptions and contingent self-worth of children participating in urban after-school physical activity programs. Three-hundred and four elementary school students from a major Midwestern city participated.…

  17. Soluble CD163 from activated macrophages predicts mortality in acute liver failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Holger Jon; Grønbaek, Henning; Schiødt, Frank V

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is a scavenger receptor shed in serum during inflammatory activation of macrophages. We investigated if sCD163 was increased and predicted outcome in acute liver failure (ALF). METHODS: Samples from 100 consecutive patients enrolled in the U.S. ALF Study Gr...

  18. Physical Activity Measured With Implanted Devices Predicts Patient Outcome in Chronic Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conraads, Viviane M.; Spruit, Martijn A.; Braunschweig, Frieder; Cowie, Martin R.; Tavazzi, Luigi; Borggrefe, Martin; Hill, Michael R. S.; Jacobs, Sandra; Gerritse, Bart; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.

    2014-01-01

    Background- Physical activity (PA) predicts cardiovascular mortality in the population at large. Less is known about its prognostic value in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Methods and Results- Data from 836 patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator without or with cardiac resyn

  19. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard;

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can......-scale wind farm control....

  20. Role of parent literacy and numeracy expectations and activities in predicting early numeracy skills

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, P.C.J.; Kleemans, M.A.J.; Verhoeven, L.T.W.

    2015-01-01

    The home numeracy environment (i.e., parents' numeracy expectations and activities), is related to early numeracy in young children. As recent studies have shown that both cognitive and linguistic factors play an important role in predicting numeracy development, it may be assumed that rather than t

  1. Role of Parent Literacy and Numeracy Expectations and Activities in Predicting Early Numeracy Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segers, Eliane; Kleemans, Tijs; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    The home numeracy environment (i.e., parents' numeracy expectations and activities), is related to early numeracy in young children. As recent studies have shown that both cognitive and linguistic factors play an important role in predicting numeracy development, it may be assumed that rather than the home "numeracy" environment, the…

  2. Factors of Participants and Blogs That Predict Blogging Activeness during Teaching Practice and Induction Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luik, Piret; Taimalu, Merle

    2016-01-01

    The blog as a type of social software has been used in education for several years, and its positive effect in the field has been asserted in many studies. This study presents the factors of participants and blogs that predict blogging activeness during teaching practice and induction year. During the teaching practice and induction year all…

  3. Are Psychotherapeutic Changes Predictable? Comparison of a Chicago Counseling Center Project with a Penn Psychotherapy Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luborsky, Lester; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Compared studies predicting outcomes of psychotherapy. Level of prediction success in both projects was modest. Particularly for the rated benefits score, the profile of variables showed similar levels of success between the projects. Successful predictions were based on adequacy of personality functioning, match on marital status, and length of…

  4. Consensus Modeling for Prediction of Estrogenic Activity of Ingredients Commonly Used in Sunscreen Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huixiao Hong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sunscreen products are predominantly regulated as over-the-counter (OTC drugs by the US FDA. The “active” ingredients function as ultraviolet filters. Once a sunscreen product is generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE via an OTC drug review process, new formulations using these ingredients do not require FDA review and approval, however, the majority of ingredients have never been tested to uncover any potential endocrine activity and their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER is unknown, despite the fact that this is a very extensively studied target related to endocrine activity. Consequently, we have developed an in silico model to prioritize single ingredient estrogen receptor activity for use when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent. It relies on consensus modeling to qualitatively and quantitatively predict ER binding activity. As proof of concept, the model was applied to ingredients commonly used in sunscreen products worldwide and a few reference chemicals. Of the 32 chemicals with unknown ER binding activity that were evaluated, seven were predicted to be active estrogenic compounds. Five of the seven were confirmed by the published data. Further experimental data is needed to confirm the other two predictions.

  5. [Current distribution of Schisandra chinensis in China and its predicted responses to climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Li-Le; Zhang, Hai-Ying; Qin, Ling; Yan, Bo-Qian

    2012-09-01

    With integration of literature data, specimens records, and field surveys, the current distribution map of Schisandra chinensis in China was drawn, and, based on this map and considering 21 environmental factors, the future distribution of S. chinensis in China in the 2050s and 2080s under the IPCC A2 and A1B climate change scenarios was predicted by using Maxent software. Currently, the S. chinensis in China occurred in 15 provinces, involving 151 counties, and its distribution area decreased with decreasing latitude and longitude. The main distribution area included Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin. The potential distribution area of S. chinensis in China was 145.12 x 10(4) km2, 48.6% of which were the favorable habitat area, mainly distributed in Changbai Mountains, Xiaoxing'anling Mountains, Daxing'anling Mountains, and the regions between Hebei and Liaoning provinces. The most favorable habitat area only accounted for 0.3%, and was mainly in the Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County, Benxi Manchu Autonomous County, and Huanren Manchu Autonomous County of Liaoning Province, the Antu County and Helong County of Jilin Province, and the Yakeshi City of Inner Mongolia. Under the two climate change scenarios, the potential future distribution area of S. chinensis in China would have a gradual decrease, and the decrement would be larger under A2 than under A1B scenario. By 2050, the distribution area of the S. chinensis under A1B and A2 scenarios would be moderately decreased to 84.0% and 81.5% of the current distribution area, respectively; by 2080, the distribution of S. chinensis under A2 scenario would be dramatically decreased to only 0.5% of the current range, and that under A1B scenario would be decreased to 1/2 of the current range.

  6. Predicting of bactericidal activity of chemical disinfectants using disinfection activity coefficient of solution

    OpenAIRE

    Gjorgjeska, Biljana

    2011-01-01

    There is the need for defining standard technique for quantitative determination of bactericidal activity of chemical disinfectant substances, as well as the need for defining parameter for comparing various chemical disinfectants. The methods which are usually used for evaluation of antiseptic activity of disinfectant aqueous solutions are microbiological.

  7. Role of spontaneous physical activity in prediction of susceptibility to activity based anorexia in male and female rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Leighton, Claudio E; Grace, Martha; Billington, Charles J; Kotz, Catherine M

    2014-08-01

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a chronic eating disorder affecting females and males, defined by body weight loss, higher physical activity levels and restricted food intake. Currently, the commonalities and differences between genders in etiology of AN are not well understood. Animal models of AN, such as activity-based anorexia (ABA), can be helpful in identifying factors determining individual susceptibility to AN. In ABA, rodents are given an access to a running wheel while food restricted, resulting in paradoxical increased physical activity levels and weight loss. Recent studies suggest that different behavioral traits, including voluntary exercise, can predict individual weight loss in ABA. A higher inherent drive for movement may promote development and severity of AN, but this hypothesis remains untested. In rodents and humans, drive for movement is defined as spontaneous physical activity (SPA), which is time spent in low-intensity, non-volitional movements. In this paper, we show that a profile of body weight history and behavioral traits, including SPA, can predict individual weight loss caused by ABA in male and female rats with high accuracy. Analysis of the influence of SPA on ABA susceptibility in males and females rats suggests that either high or low levels of SPA increase the probability of high weight loss in ABA, but with larger effects in males compared to females. These results suggest that the same behavioral profile can identify individuals at-risk of AN for both male and female populations and that SPA has predictive value for susceptibility to AN.

  8. Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

    2012-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

  9. Trying to trust: Brain activity during interpersonal social attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filkowski, Megan M; Anderson, Ian W; Haas, Brian W

    2016-04-01

    Interpersonal trust and distrust are important components of human social interaction. Although several studies have shown that brain function is associated with either trusting or distrusting others, very little is known regarding brain function during the control of social attitudes, including trust and distrust. This study was designed to investigate the neural mechanisms involved when people attempt to control their attitudes of trust or distrust toward another person. We used a novel control-of-attitudes fMRI task, which involved explicit instructions to control attitudes of interpersonal trust and distrust. Control of trust or distrust was operationally defined as changes in trustworthiness evaluations of neutral faces before and after the control-of-attitudes fMRI task. Overall, participants (n = 60) evaluated faces paired with the distrust instruction as being less trustworthy than faces paired with the trust instruction following the control-of-distrust task. Within the brain, both the control-of-trust and control-of-distrust conditions were associated with increased temporoparietal junction, precuneus (PrC), inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), and medial prefrontal cortex activity. Individual differences in the control of trust were associated with PrC activity, and individual differences in the control of distrust were associated with IFG activity. Together, these findings identify a brain network involved in the explicit control of distrust and trust and indicate that the PrC and IFG may serve to consolidate interpersonal social attitudes.

  10. Systematic Survey of Serine Hydrolase Activity in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Defines Changes Associated with Persistence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Corrie; Anderson, Lindsey N.; Frando, Andrew; Sadler, Natalie C.; Brown, Robert W.; Smith, Richard D.; Wright, Aaron T.; Grundner, Christoph

    2016-02-01

    The transition between replication and non-replication underlies much of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) pathogenicity, as non- or slowly replicating Mtb are responsible for persistence and poor treatment outcomes. Therapeutic targeting of non-replicating, persistent populations is a priority for tuberculosis treatment, but only few drug targets in non-replicating Mtb are currently known. Here, we directly measure the activity of the highly diverse and druggable serine hydrolases (SHs) during active replication and non-replication by activity-based proteomics. We predict serine hydrolase activity for 78 proteins, including 27 proteins with previously unknown function, and identify 37 SHs that remain active even in the absence of replication, providing a set of candidate persistence targets. Non-replication was associated with large shifts in the activity of the majority of SHs. These activity changes were largely independent of SH abundance, indicating extensive post-translational regulation. By probing a large cross-section of druggable Mtb enzyme space during replication and non-replication, we identify new SHs and suggest new persistence targets.

  11. Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 2. Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kozoderov

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing the general statements of the proposed global change theory, outlined in Part 1 of the publication, Kolmogorov's probability space is used to study properties of information measures (unconditional, joint and conditional entropies, information divergence, mutual information, etc.. Sets of elementary events, the specified algebra of their sub-sets and probability measures for the algebra are composite parts of the space. The information measures are analyzed using the mathematical expectance operator and the adequacy between an additive function of sets and their equivalents in the form of the measures. As a result, explanations are given to multispectral satellite imagery visualization procedures using Markov's chains of random variables represented by pixels of the imagery. The proposed formalism of the information measures application enables to describe the natural targets complexity by syntactically governing probabilities. Asserted as that of signal/noise ratios finding for anomalies of natural processes, the predictability problem is solved by analyses of temporal data sets of related measurements for key regions and their background within contextually coherent structures of natural targets and between particular boundaries of the structures.

  12. Early changes in hepatitis C viral quasispecies during interferon therapy predict the therapeutic outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farci, Patrizia; Strazzera, Rita; Alter, Harvey J.; Farci, Stefania; Degioannis, Daniela; Coiana, Alessandra; Peddis, Giovanna; Usai, Francesco; Serra, Giancarlo; Chessa, Luchino; Diaz, Giacomo; Balestrieri, Angelo; Purcell, Robert H.

    2002-01-01

    Despite recent treatment advances, the majority of patients with chronic hepatitis C fail to respond to antiviral therapy. Although the genetic basis for this resistance is unknown, accumulated evidence suggests that changes in the heterogeneous viral population (quasispecies) may be an important determinant of viral persistence and response to therapy. Sequences within hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope 1 and envelope 2 genes, inclusive of the hypervariable region 1, were analyzed in parallel with the level of viral replication in serial serum samples obtained from 23 patients who exhibited different patterns of response to therapy and from untreated controls. Our study provides evidence that although the viral diversity before treatment does not predict the response to treatment, the early emergence and dominance of a single viral variant distinguishes patients who will have a sustained therapeutic response from those who subsequently will experience a breakthrough or relapse. A dramatic reduction in genetic diversity leading to an increasingly homogeneous viral population was a consistent feature associated with viral clearance in sustained responders and was independent of HCV genotype. The persistence of variants present before treatment in patients who fail to respond or who experience a breakthrough during therapy strongly suggests the preexistence of viral strains with inherent resistance to IFN. Thus, the study of the evolution of the HCV quasispecies provides prognostic information as early as the first 2 weeks after starting therapy and opens perspectives for elucidating the mechanisms of treatment failure in chronic hepatitis C. PMID:11880647

  13. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  14. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    Full Text Available Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

  15. Integrating the system dynamic and cellular automata models to predict land use and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaoming; Du, Ziqiang; Zhang, Hong

    2016-10-01

    Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a widely researched topic in related studies. A number of models have been established to simulate LULCC patterns. However, the integration of the system dynamic (SD) and the cellular automata (CA) model have been rarely employed in LULCC simulations, although it allows for combining the advantages of each approach and therefore improving the simulation accuracy. In this study, we integrated an SD model and a CA model to predict LULCC under three future development scenarios in Northern Shanxi province of China, a typical agro-pastoral transitional zone. The results indicated that our integrated approach represented the impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on LULCC well, and could accurately simulate the magnitude and spatial pattern of LULCC. The modeling scenarios illustrated that different development pathways would lead to various LULCC patterns. This study demonstrated the advantages of the integration approach for simulating LULCC and suggests that LULCC is affected to a large degree by natural and socioeconomic factors.

  16. An efficient feedback active noise control algorithm based on reduced-order linear predictive modeling of FMRI acoustic noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Govind; Milani, Ali A; Panahi, Issa M S; Briggs, Richard W

    2011-12-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acoustic noise exhibits an almost periodic nature (quasi-periodicity) due to the repetitive nature of currents in the gradient coils. Small changes occur in the waveform in consecutive periods due to the background noise and slow drifts in the electroacoustic transfer functions that map the gradient coil waveforms to the measured acoustic waveforms. The period depends on the number of slices per second, when echo planar imaging (EPI) sequencing is used. Linear predictability of fMRI acoustic noise has a direct effect on the performance of active noise control (ANC) systems targeted to cancel the acoustic noise. It is shown that by incorporating some samples from the previous period, very high linear prediction accuracy can be reached with a very low order predictor. This has direct implications on feedback ANC systems since their performance is governed by the predictability of the acoustic noise to be cancelled. The low complexity linear prediction of fMRI acoustic noise developed in this paper is used to derive an effective and low-cost feedback ANC system.

  17. Individual differences in crossmodal brain activity predict arcuate fasciculus connectivity in developing readers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullick, Margaret M; Booth, James R

    2014-07-01

    Crossmodal integration of auditory and visual information, such as phonemes and graphemes, is a critical skill for fluent reading. Previous work has demonstrated that white matter connectivity along the arcuate fasciculus (AF) is predicted by reading skill and that crossmodal processing particularly activates the posterior STS (pSTS). However, the relationship between this crossmodal activation and white matter integrity has not been previously reported. We investigated the interrelationship of crossmodal integration, both in terms of behavioral performance and pSTS activity, with AF tract coherence using a rhyme judgment task in a group of 47 children with a range of reading abilities. We demonstrate that both response accuracy and pSTS activity for crossmodal (auditory-visual) rhyme judgments was predictive of fractional anisotropy along the left AF. Unimodal (auditory-only or visual-only) pSTS activity was not significantly related to AF connectivity. Furthermore, activity in other reading-related ROIs did not show the same AV-only AF coherence relationship, and AV pSTS activity was not related to connectivity along other language-related tracts. This study is the first to directly show that crossmodal brain activity is specifically related to connectivity in the AF, supporting its role in phoneme-grapheme integration ability. More generally, this study helps to define an interdependent neural network for reading-related integration.

  18. Can we better use existing and emerging computing hardware to embed activity coefficient predictions in complex atmospheric aerosol models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, David; Alibay, Irfan; Ruske, Simon; Hindriksen, Vincent; Noisternig, Michael

    2016-04-01

    To predict the evolving concentration, chemical composition and ability of aerosol particles to act as cloud droplets, we rely on numerical modeling. Mechanistic models attempt to account for the movement of compounds between the gaseous and condensed phases at a molecular level. This 'bottom up' approach is designed to increase our fundamental understanding. However, such models rely on predicting the properties of molecules and subsequent mixtures. For partitioning between the gaseous and condensed phases this includes: saturation vapour pressures; Henrys law coefficients; activity coefficients; diffusion coefficients and reaction rates. Current gas phase chemical mechanisms predict the existence of potentially millions of individual species. Within a dynamic ensemble model, this can often be used as justification for neglecting computationally expensive process descriptions. Indeed, on whether we can quantify the true sensitivity to uncertainties in molecular properties, even at the single aerosol particle level it has been impossible to embed fully coupled representations of process level knowledge with all possible compounds, typically relying on heavily parameterised descriptions. Relying on emerging numerical frameworks, and designed for the changing landscape of high-performance computing (HPC), in this study we show that comprehensive microphysical models from single particle to larger scales can be developed to encompass a complete state-of-the-art knowledge of aerosol chemical and process diversity. We focus specifically on the ability to capture activity coefficients in liquid solutions using the UNIFAC method, profiling traditional coding strategies and those that exploit emerging hardware.

  19. Predicted responses of invasive mammal communities to climate-related changes in mast frequency in forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Daniel M; Byrom, Andrea E; Pech, Roger P

    2013-07-01

    Predicting the dynamics and impacts of multiple invasive species can be complex because ecological relationships, which occur among several trophic levels, are often incompletely understood. Further, the complexity of these trophic relationships exacerbates our inability to predict climate change effects on invaded ecosystems. We explore the hypothesis that interactions between two global change drivers, invasive vertebrates and climate change, will potentially make matters worse for native biodiversity. In New Zealand beech (Nothofagus spp.) forests, a highly irruptive invasive mammal community is driven by multi-annual resource pulses of beech seed (masting). Because mast frequency is predicted to increase with climate change, we use this as a model system to explore the extent to which such effects may influence invasive vertebrate communities, and the implications of such interactions for native biodiversity and its management. We build on an established model of trophic interactions in the system, combining it with a logistic probability mast function, the parameters of which were altered to simulate either contemporary conditions or conditions of more or less frequent masting. The model predicts that increased mast frequency will lead to populations of a top predator (the stoat) and a mesopredator (the ship rat) becoming less irruptive and being maintained at appreciably higher average abundances in this forest type. In addition, the ability of both current and in-development management approaches to suppress invasive mammals is predicted to be compromised. Because invasive mammals are key drivers of native fauna extinction in New Zealand, with the additional loss of associated functions such as pollination and seed dispersal, these predictions imply potentially serious adverse impacts of climate change for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function. Our study also highlights the importance of long-term monitoring data for assessing and managing

  20. Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, Rebecca E; Close, Paul G; Barton, Jan L; Pope, Adam J; Brown, Stuart C

    2014-11-01

    Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a

  1. Probabilistic Prediction of the Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost Stability along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (Ⅰ) :Active Layer Thickness and Ground Temperature%气候变化条件下青藏铁路沿线多年冻土概率预报(I):活动层厚度与地温

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨成松; 程国栋

    2011-01-01

    对1961-2100年IPCC气候模拟与预测结果进行降尺度处理,得到铁路沿线空间分辨率为1km、时间分辨率为1h的大气边界条件.对铁路和公路沿线钻孔资料在垂直和水平两个方向进行空间差值处理,得到水平1 km、垂直0.1m分辨率的沿线地下含水(冰)量的二维分布,作为初始条件.考虑气候模型预测误差和空间格网内地形的变化,以Monte Carlo方法产生气温的概率分布,以此作为冻土模型的驱动.对公共陆面过程模型(CoLM)的土壤分层进行细化,使得模型更为细致地模拟多年冻土地表及活动层的水热交换过程.在此基础上,模拟过去40 a和未来100 a铁路沿线多年冻土路段1km分辨率的活动层厚度概率预报结果,根据沿线观测和考察数据进行分区验证.结果表明:模拟的活动层厚度可以反映出不同分区的异同,但是模拟的活动层厚度总体偏小.根据青藏高原1961-2002年土壤表层温度(0 cm)和2006年铁路沿线土壤温度观测廓线数据进行验证,发现表层和浅层土壤温度相对误差较小,而深层土壤温度相对误差较大.%In this paper,permafrost prediction(active layer thickness and ground temperature)along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway(QTR)by probabilistic method is presented.The atmospheric boundary conditions are obtained from IPCC climate simulation and forecast from 1961 to 2100 by using dynamical and statistic downscaling methods.The initial conditions of ground water content(ice content)are obtained from boreholes along the QTR and the Qinghai·-Tibet highway by spatial interpolation method.Owing to the uncertainties of the climatic model forecasting and the topographic variation within the model grid,air temperature time series are perturbed by Monte Carlo method to implement ensemble forecasting.The common land model(CoLM)with a more detailed layering scheme is adopted to simulate and predict the exchange of energy and water within the active layer

  2. PASS-Predicted Hepatoprotective Activity of Caesalpinia sappan in Thioacetamide-Induced Liver Fibrosis in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farkaad A. Kadir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The antifibrotic effects of traditional medicinal herb Caesalpinia sappan (CS extract on liver fibrosis induced by thioacetamide (TAA and the expression of transforming growth factor β1 (TGF-β1, α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA in rats were studied. A computer-aided prediction of antioxidant and hepatoprotective activities was primarily performed with the Prediction Activity Spectra of the Substance (PASS Program. Liver fibrosis was induced in male Sprague Dawley rats by TAA administration (0.03% w/v in drinking water for a period of 12 weeks. Rats were divided into seven groups: control, TAA, Silymarin (SY, and CS 300 mg/kg body weight and 100 mg/kg groups. The effect of CS on liver fibrogenesis was determined by Masson’s trichrome staining, immunohistochemical analysis, and western blotting. In vivo determination of hepatic antioxidant activities, cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1, and matrix metalloproteinases (MPPS was employed. CS treatment had significantly increased hepatic antioxidant enzymes activity in the TAA-treated rats. Liver fibrosis was greatly alleviated in rats when treated with CS extract. CS treatment was noted to normalize the expression of TGF-β1, αSMA, PCNA, MMPs, and TIMP1 proteins. PASS-predicted plant activity could efficiently guide in selecting a promising pharmaceutical lead with high accuracy and required antioxidant and hepatoprotective properties.

  3. Variability of single trial brain activation predicts fluctuations in reaction time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Stephan; Banaschewski, Tobias; Roessner, Veit; Klein, Christoph; Rietschel, Marcella; Feige, Bernd; Brandeis, Daniel; Laucht, Manfred

    2015-03-01

    Brain activation stability is crucial to understanding attention lapses. EEG methods could provide excellent markers to assess neuronal response variability with respect to temporal (intertrial coherence) and spatial variability (topographic consistency) as well as variations in activation intensity (low frequency variability of single trial global field power). We calculated intertrial coherence, topographic consistency and low frequency amplitude variability during target P300 in a continuous performance test in 263 15-year-olds from a cohort with psychosocial and biological risk factors. Topographic consistency and low frequency amplitude variability predicted reaction time fluctuations (RTSD) in a linear model. Higher RTSD was only associated with higher psychosocial adversity in the presence of the homozygous 6R-10R dopamine transporter haplotype. We propose that topographic variability of single trial P300 reflects noise as well as variability in evoked cortical activation patterns. Dopaminergic neuromodulation interacted with environmental and biological risk factors to predict behavioural reaction time variability.

  4. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  5. Can the theory of planned behaviour predict the physical activity behaviour of individuals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Nicola; Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Howie, Kate

    2013-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) can identify cognitions that predict differences in behaviour between individuals. However, it is not clear whether the TPB can predict the behaviour of an individual person. This study employs a series of n-of-1 studies and time series analyses to examine the ability of the TPB to predict physical activity (PA) behaviours of six individuals. Six n-of-1 studies were conducted, in which TPB cognitions and up to three PA behaviours (walking, gym workout and a personally defined PA) were measured twice daily for six weeks. Walking was measured by pedometer step count, gym attendance by self-report with objective validation of gym entry and the personally defined PA behaviour by self-report. Intra-individual variability in TPB cognitions and PA behaviour was observed in all participants. The TPB showed variable predictive utility within individuals and across behaviours. The TPB predicted at least one PA behaviour for five participants but had no predictive utility for one participant. Thus, n-of-1 designs and time series analyses can be used to test theory in an individual.

  6. Building memories: remembering and forgetting of verbal experiences as predicted by brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, A D; Schacter, D L; Rotte, M; Koutstaal, W; Maril, A; Dale, A M; Rosen, B R; Buckner, R L

    1998-08-21

    A fundamental question about human memory is why some experiences are remembered whereas others are forgotten. Brain activation during word encoding was measured using blocked and event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine how neural activation differs for subsequently remembered and subsequently forgotten experiences. Results revealed that the ability to later remember a verbal experience is predicted by the magnitude of activation in left prefrontal and temporal cortices during that experience. These findings provide direct evidence that left prefrontal and temporal regions jointly promote memory formation for verbalizable events.

  7. Structural change in the petroleum activities; Strukturendringer i petroleumsvirksomheten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The report is twofold. First it is described a reference situation for the petroleum industry based on qualitative and quantitative parameters. The purpose of this section is to form a basis of a future observation can be assessed. Then referred the views and reviews a wide range of stake holders in the industry has about how the structures in the petroleum industry will evolve in the years ahead. The views and reviews that are reproduced are from players in the petroleum industry itself, represented by 48 companies and organizations, and are not the views or opinions of Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Participants' attention is mainly focused on how StatoilHydro will affect the industry, but it is also a general perception that there are many other factors that are just as important for how the industry will evolve in the long term. Participants' views will help to identify trends that may affect the player image. The project is not intended to constitute a strategy for or how to accommodate structural changes in the petroleum industry. The report discusses not systematically the structural changes that will be positive or negative for the industry and proposes no measures that will affect them. In Chapter 5, however, rendered what the various players in the interview rounds have proposed measures to counter the various structural changes. Finally touches the report not the significance of structural changes in the industry may have on health, safety and environment (HSE) in activity. The views and reviews from the players were passed in 2008, before the problems in the financial industry gained a considerable extent. Data and forecasts are also prepared during this period. Reviews in the report were accordingly given before one learned about the extent of the economic development and are not revised in the afterwards. Ministry of Petroleum and Energy will in the years ahead have to have a continuous attention to the issues described in this report. It

  8. Anticipatory eye movements evoked after active following versus passive observation of a predictable motion stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, M R; Barnes, G R

    2008-12-15

    We used passive and active following of a predictable smooth pursuit stimulus in order to establish if predictive eye movement responses are equivalent under both passive and active conditions. The smooth pursuit stimulus was presented in pairs that were either 'predictable' in which both presentations were matched in timing and velocity, or 'randomized' in which each presentation in the pair was varied in both timing and velocity. A visual cue signaled the type of response required from the subject; a green cue indicated the subject should follow both the target presentations (Go-Go), a pink cue indicated that the subject should passively observe the 1st target and follow the 2nd target (NoGo-Go), and finally a green cue with a black cross revealed a randomized (Rnd) trial in which the subject should follow both presentations. The results revealed better prediction in the Go-Go trials than in the NoGo-Go trials, as indicated by higher anticipatory velocity and earlier eye movement onset (latency). We conclude that velocity and timing information stored from passive observation of a moving target is diminished when compared to active following of the target. This study has significant consequences for understanding how visuomotor memory is generated, stored and subsequently released from short-term memory.

  9. Distributed Model Predictive Control of A Wind Farm for Optimal Active Power Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai;

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic discrete-time Piece- Wise Affine (PWA) model of a wind turbine for the optimal active power control of a wind farm. The control objectives include both the power reference tracking from the system operator and the wind turbine mechanical load minimization. Instead......, which combines the clustering, linear identification and pattern recognition techniques. The developed model, consisting of 47 affine dynamics, is verified by the comparison with a widely-used nonlinear wind turbine model. It can be used as a predictive model for the Model Predictive Control (MPC......) or other advanced optimal control applications of a wind farm....

  10. Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Arun Mondal; Sandip Mukherjee; Dipam Khatua; Subhajit Ghosh; Debasish Mitra; Tuhin Ghosh

    2014-08-01

    In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

  11. Numerical model predictions of autogenic fluvial terraces and comparison to climate change expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, Ajay B. S.; Lamb, Michael P.

    2016-03-01

    Terraces eroded into sediment (alluvial) and bedrock (strath) preserve an important history of river activity. River terraces are thought to form when a river switches from a period of slow vertical incision and valley widening to fast vertical incision and terrace abandonment. Consequently, terraces are often interpreted to reflect changing external drivers including tectonics, sea level, and climate. In contrast, the intrinsic unsteadiness of lateral migration in rivers may generate terraces even under constant rates of vertical incision without external forcing. To explore this mechanism, we simulate landscape evolution by a vertically incising, meandering river and isolate the age and geometry of autogenic river terraces. Modeled autogenic terraces form for a wide range of lateral and vertical incision rates and are often paired and longitudinally extensive for intermediate ratios of vertical-to-lateral erosion rate. Autogenic terraces have a characteristic reoccurrence time that scales with the time for relief generation. There is a preservation bias against older terraces due to reworking of previously visited parts of the valley. Evolving, spatial differences in bank strength between bedrock and sediment reduce terrace formation frequency and length, favor pairing, and can explain sublinear terrace margins at valley boundaries. Age differences and geometries for modeled autogenic terraces are consistent, in cases, with natural terraces and overlap with metrics commonly attributed to terrace formation due to climate change. We suggest a new phase space of terrace properties that may allow differentiation of autogenic terraces from terraces formed by external drivers.

  12. Final technical report. Can microbial functional traits predict the response and resilience of decomposition to global change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, Steven D. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2015-09-24

    The role of specific micro-organisms in the carbon cycle, and their responses to environmental change, are unknown in most ecosystems. This knowledge gap limits scientists’ ability to predict how important ecosystem processes, like soil carbon storage and loss, will change with climate and other environmental factors. The investigators addressed this knowledge gap by transplanting microbial communities from different environments into new environments and measuring the response of community composition and carbon cycling over time. Using state-of-the-art sequencing techniques, computational tools, and nanotechnology, the investigators showed that microbial communities on decomposing plant material shift dramatically with natural and experimentally-imposed drought. Microbial communities also shifted in response to added nitrogen, but the effects were smaller. These changes had implications for carbon cycling, with lower rates of carbon loss under drought conditions, and changes in the efficiency of decomposition with nitrogen addition. Even when transplanted into the same conditions, microbial communities from different environments remained distinct in composition and functioning for up to one year. Changes in functioning were related to differences in enzyme gene content across different microbial groups. Computational approaches developed for this project allowed the conclusions to be tested more broadly in other ecosystems, and new computer models will facilitate the prediction of microbial traits and functioning across environments. The data and models resulting from this project benefit the public by improving the ability to predict how microbial communities and carbon cycling functions respond to climate change, nutrient enrichment, and other large-scale environmental changes.

  13. CHANG-ES VIII: Uncovering Hidden AGN Activity in Radio Polarization

    CERN Document Server

    Irwin, Judith A; Damas-Segovia, A; Beck, Rainer; English, Jayanne; Heald, George; Henriksen, Richard N; Krause, Marita; Li, Jiang-Tao; Rand, Richard J; Wang, Q Daniel; Wiegert, Theresa; Kamieneski, Patrick; Paré, Dylan; Sullivan, Kendall

    2016-01-01

    We report on C-band (5 - 7 GHz) observations of the galaxy, NGC~2992, from the CHANG-ES sample. This galaxy displays an embedded nuclear double-lobed radio morphology within its spiral disk, as revealed in linearly polarized emission but {\\it not} in total intensity emission. The radio lobes are kpc-sized, similar to what has been observed in the past for other Seyfert galaxies, and show ordered magnetic fields. NGC~2992 has shown previous evidence for AGN-related activity, but not the linearly polarized radio features that we present here. We draw attention to this galaxy as the first clear example (and prototype) of bipolar radio outflow that is revealed in linearly polarized emission only. Such polarization observations, which are unobscured by dust, provide a new tool for uncovering hidden weak AGN activity which may otherwise be masked by brighter unpolarized emission within which it is embedded. The radio lobes observed in NGC~2992 are interacting with the surrounding interstellar medium and offer new o...

  14. Reaching Conversation Through Play: A Qualitative Change of Activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teixeira R.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the process of reaching conversation in the case of Anna, a 10- year-old girl, in a countryside Portuguese primary school, through neuropsychological habilitation and psychotherapy. This case identifies the theoretical and methodological concepts from Vygotsky’s cultural historical conceptualization in psychotherapy practice. Vygotsky introduced a new form of thinking in psychology, the concept of play, as a cultural and relational tool on a child’s (consciousness development. During psychotherapy, Anna progressed through the following stages: 1 not playing (deploying the toys, with no relations between them or awareness of social rules; 2 worldplay (building worlds using wooden blocks and other toys, establishing relations between the characters and their possessions; and 3 imaginary situation (with no toys. At the end of this process, she was able to talk about her issues, communicating in a more adaptive way, especially in a schooled society. When she reached conversation, Anna’s activity was also changed. Therefore, there was a qualitative change regarding her needs, motives and ways of acting and reacting to herself, others, and cultural tools or events.

  15. Dynamical changing pattems of glycogen and enzyme histochemical activities in rat liver graft undergoing warm ischemia injury

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Shun He; Yi Ma; Lin-Wei Wu; Jin-Lang Wu; Rui-De Hu; Gui-Hua Chen; Jie-Fu Huang

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the changing patterns of glycogen and enzyme histochemical activities in rat liver graft under a dif ferent warm ischemia time (WIT) and to predict the tolerant time limitation of the liver graft to warm ischemia injury.METHODS: The rats were randomized into five groups, WTT was 0, 15, 30, 45, 60 min, respectively, and histochemical staining of liver graft specimens was observed. The recovery changes of glycogen and enzyme histochemistry activities were measured respectively 6 and 24 h following liver graft implantation.RESULTS: The activities of succinic dehydrogenase, cytochrome oxidase, apyrase (Mg++-ATPase) and content of glycogen were decreased gradually after different WIT in a time-dependent manner. The changes were significant when WIT was over 30 min.CONCLUSION: Hepatic injury is reversible within 30 min of warm ischemia injury. Glycogen and enzyme histochemistry activities of liver grafts and their recovery potency after reperfusion may serve as criteria to evaluate the quality of liver grafts.

  16. Adaptability and Prediction of Anticipatory Muscular Activity Parameters to Different Movements in the Sitting Position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikh, Soufien; Watelain, Eric; Faupin, Arnaud; Pinti, Antonio; Jarraya, Mohamed; Garnier, Cyril

    2016-08-01

    Voluntary movement often causes postural perturbation that requires an anticipatory postural adjustment to minimize perturbation and increase the efficiency and coordination during execution. This systematic review focuses specifically on the relationship between the parameters of anticipatory muscular activities and movement finality in sitting position among adults, to study the adaptability and predictability of anticipatory muscular activities parameters to different movements and conditions in sitting position in adults. A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, Springer-Link, Engineering Village, and EbscoHost. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to retain the most rigorous and specific studies, yielding 76 articles, Seventeen articles were excluded at first reading, and after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 23 were retained. In a sitting position, central nervous system activity precedes movement by diverse anticipatory muscular activities and shows the ability to adapt anticipatory muscular activity parameters to the movement direction, postural stability, or charge weight. In addition, these parameters could be adapted to the speed of execution, as found for the standing position. Parameters of anticipatory muscular activities (duration, order, and amplitude of muscle contractions constituting the anticipatory muscular activity) could be used as a predictive indicator of forthcoming movement. In addition, this systematic review may improve methodology in empirical studies and assistive technology for people with disabilities.

  17. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation : Can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E.; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental chang

  18. Factors Predicting Bone Mineral Density (BMD Changes in Young Women over A One-year Study:Changes in Body Weight and Bone Metabolic Markers during the Menstrual Cycle and Their Effects on BMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iida,Tadayuki

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 26% of Japanese women in their twenties are under weight, and therefore at risk of developing various metabolic abnormalities due to an inadequate nutrient intake, which in turn affects the acquisition of a peak bone mineral density (BMD. In this study, we aimed to clarify the effects of menstrual cycle-related changes in body weight and bone metabolic marker levels on the BMD changes. The subjects were 42 women (19.6±0.8 years. The levels of osteocalcin (OC, BAP, s-NTx, u-DPD, and E2 in the menstrual and ovulatory phases were measured. The associations between dependent variables (BMD changes/year in the lumbar spine, femur, femoral neck and explanatory variables (body weight changes/year, the levels of OC, BAP, s-NTx, u-DPD were evaluated using multiple regression analysis. Analysis of the correlations between the changes in bone metabolic markers and changes in BMD showed a correlation between the OC level in the menstrual phase and changes in the BMD of the entire femur, suggesting that a high OC level protects against BMD reduction, probably by promoting osteoblast activity, and that bone formation activity suppresses the decrease in BMD. These results suggest that, to predict BMD changes from bone metabolic markers in young women, it is necessary to measure OC levels in the menstrual phase.

  19. CHANGE@CERN:Task Force 4: Matching personnel to activities

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Our series on the work of the Task Forces moves on to Human Ressources at CERN. Staff mobility and topics related to contract policy were the main personnel issues to be considered by Task Force 4, led by John Ferguson, head of AS Division. The aim, as with the other Task Forces, was to find ways to focus resources on the LHC, and once again the recommendations recognise the opportunity to make constructive changes, in this case in Human Resources policy at CERN. Movement of staff between divisions at CERN has generally not been easy, with 'staff complements' (total numbers) set for each sector (research, accelerator, technical and administration). However, the restructuring of the accelerator sector (proposed by Task Force 5 and already agreed in principle) should allow some staff to move to LHC activities. More generally, Task Force 4 recommends that the Laboratory carries out a review of all activities, at a relatively detailed level, so as to identify the resources required to achieve specific goals (t...

  20. Predictive Models for Pulmonary Function Changes After Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer and Lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Nieto, Beatriz, E-mail: bsanchez@fis.puc.cl [Facultad de Fisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago (Chile); Goset, Karen C. [Unidad de Radioterapia, Clinica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago (Chile); Caviedes, Ivan [Servicio y Laboratorio Broncopulmonar, Clinica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago (Chile); Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Clinica Alemana-Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago (Chile); Delgado, Iris O. [Instituto de Epidemiologia y Politicas de Salud Publica, Facultad de Medicina, Clinica Alemana-Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago (Chile); Cordova, Andres [Unidad de Radioterapia, Clinica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago (Chile)

    2012-02-01

    Purpose: To propose multivariate predictive models for changes in pulmonary function tests ({Delta}PFTs) with respect to preradiotherapy (pre-RT) values in patients undergoing RT for breast cancer and lymphoma. Methods and Materials: A prospective study was designed to measure {Delta}PFTs of patients undergoing RT. Sixty-six patients were included. Spirometry, lung capacity (measured by helium dilution), and diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide tests were used to measure lung function. Two lung definitions were considered: paired lung vs. irradiated lung (IL). Correlation analysis of dosimetric parameters (mean lung dose and the percentage of lung volume receiving more than a threshold dose) and {Delta}PFTs was carried out to find the best dosimetric predictor. Chemotherapy, age, smoking, and the selected dose-volume parameter were considered as single and interaction terms in a multivariate analysis. Stability of results was checked by bootstrapping. Results: Both lung definitions proved to be similar. Modeling was carried out for IL. Acute and late damage showed the highest correlations with volumes irradiated above {approx}20 Gy (maximum R{sup 2} = 0.28) and {approx}40 Gy (maximum R{sup 2} = 0.21), respectively. RT alone induced a minor and transitory restrictive defect (p = 0.013). Doxorubicin-cyclophosphamide-paclitaxel (Taxol), when administered pre-RT, induced a late, large restrictive effect, independent of RT (p = 0.031). Bootstrap values confirmed the results. Conclusions: None of the dose-volume parameters was a perfect predictor of outcome. Thus, different predictor models for {Delta}PFTs were derived for the IL, which incorporated other nondosimetric parameters mainly through interaction terms. Late {Delta}PFTs seem to behave more serially than early ones. Large restrictive defects were demonstrated in patients pretreated with doxorubicin-cyclophosphamide-paclitaxel.

  1. Repeated Predictable Stress Causes Resilience against Colitis-Induced Behavioral Changes in Mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M Hassan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Inflammatory bowel disease is associated with an increased risk of mental disorders and can be exacerbated by stress. In this study which was performed with male 10-week old C57Bl/6N mice, we used dextran sulfate sodium (DSS-induced colitis to evaluate behavioral changes caused by intestinal inflammation, to assess the interaction between repeated psychological stress (water avoidance stress, WAS and colitis in modifying behavior, and to analyze neurochemical correlates of this interaction. A 7-day treatment with DSS (2 % in drinking water decreased locomotion and enhanced anxiety-like behavior in the open field test and reduced social interaction. Repeated exposure to WAS for 7 days had little influence on behavior but prevented the DSS-induced behavioral disturbances in the open field and social interaction tests. In contrast, repeated WAS did not modify colon length, colonic myeloperoxidase content and circulating proinflammatory cytokines, parameters used to assess colitis severity. DSS-induced colitis was associated with an increase in circulating neuropeptide Y (NPY, a rise in the hypothalamic expression of cyclooxygenase-2 mRNA and a decrease in the hippocampal expression of NPY mRNA, brain-derived neurotrophic factor mRNA and mineralocorticoid receptor mRNA. Repeated WAS significantly decreased the relative expression of corticotropin-releasing factor mRNA in the hippocampus. The effect of repeated WAS to blunt the DSS-evoked behavioral disturbances was associated with a rise of circulating corticosterone and an increase in the expression of hypothalamic NPY mRNA. These results show that experimental colitis leads to a particular range of behavioral alterations which can be prevented by repeated WAS, a model of predictable chronic stress, while the severity of colitis remains unabated. We conclude that the mechanisms underlying the resilience effect of repeated WAS involves hypothalamic NPY and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis.

  2. Development of a predictive model to determine micropollutant removal using granular activated carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. de Ridder

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of organic micropollutants in drinking water and its sources has opened up a field of study related to monitoring concentration levels in water sources, evaluating their toxicity and estimating their removal in drinking water treatment processes. Because a large number of organic micropollutants is currently present (although in relatively low concentrations in drinking water sources, a method should be developed to select which micropollutants has to be evaluated with priority. In this paper, a screening model is presented that can predict solute removal by activated carbon, in ultrapure water and in natural water. Solute removal prediction is based on a combination of solute hydrophobicity (expressed as log D, the pH corrected log Kow, solute charge and the carbon dose. Solute molecular weight was also considered as model input parameter, but this solute property appeared to relate insufficiently to solute removal.

    Removal of negatively charged solutes by preloaded activated carbon was reduced while the removal of positively charged solutes was increased, compared with freshly regenerated activated carbon. Differences in charged solute removal by freshly regenerated activated carbon were small, indicating that charge interactions are an important mechanism in adsorption onto preloaded carbon. The predicted solute removal was within 20 removal-% deviation of experimentally measured values for most solutes.

  3. Development of a predictive model to determine micropollutant removal using granular activated carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. de Ridder

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of organic micropollutants in drinking water and its sources has opened up a field of study related to monitoring concentration levels in water sources, evaluating their toxicity and estimating their removal in drinking water treatment processes. Because a large number of organic micropollutants is currently present (although in relatively low concentrations in drinking water sources, a method should be developed to select which micropollutants has to be evaluated with priority. In this paper, a screening model is presented that can predict solute removal by activated carbon, in ultrapure water and in natural water. Solute removal prediction is based on a combination of solute hydrophobicity (expressed as log D, the pH corrected log Kow, solute charge and the carbon dose. Solute molecular weight was also considered as model input parameter, but this solute property appeared to relate insufficiently to solute removal.

    Removal of negatively charged solutes by preloaded activated carbon was reduced while the removal of positively charged solutes was increased, compared with freshly regenerated activated carbon. Differences in charged solute removal by freshly regenerated activated carbon were small, indicating that charge interactions are an important mechanism in adsorption onto preloaded carbon. The predicted solute removal was within 20 removal-% deviation of experimentally measured values.

  4. A model for signal processing and predictive control of semi-active structural control system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M-H Shih; W-P Sung; Ching-Jong Wang

    2009-06-01

    The theory for structural control has been well developed and applied to perform excellent energy dissipation using dampers. Both active and semi-active control systems may be used to decide on the optimal switch point of the damper based on the current and past structural responses to the excitation of external forces. However, numerous noises may occur when the control signals are accessed and transported thus causing a delay of the damper. Therefore, a predictive control technique that integrates an improved method of detecting the control signal based on the direction of the structural motion, and a calculator for detecting the velocity using the least-square polynomial regression is proposed in this research. Comparisons of the analytical data and experimental results show that this predictor is effective in switching the moving direction of the semi-active damper. This conclusion is further verified using the component and shaking table test with constant amplitude but various frequencies, and the El Centro earthquake test. All tests confirm that this predictive control technique is effective to alleviate the time delay problem of semi-active dampers. This predictive control technique promotes about 30% to 40% reduction of the structural displacement response and about 35% to 45% reduction of the structural acceleration response.

  5. Modulation of perception and brain activity by predictable trajectories of facial expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furl, N; van Rijsbergen, N J; Kiebel, S J; Friston, K J; Treves, A; Dolan, R J

    2010-03-01

    People track facial expression dynamics with ease to accurately perceive distinct emotions. Although the superior temporal sulcus (STS) appears to possess mechanisms for perceiving changeable facial attributes such as expressions, the nature of the underlying neural computations is not known. Motivated by novel theoretical accounts, we hypothesized that visual and motor areas represent expressions as anticipated motion trajectories. Using magnetoencephalography, we show predictable transitions between fearful and neutral expressions (compared with scrambled and static presentations) heighten activity in visual cortex as quickly as 165 ms poststimulus onset and later (237 ms) engage fusiform gyrus, STS and premotor areas. Consistent with proposed models of biological motion representation, we suggest that visual areas predictively represent coherent facial trajectories. We show that such representations bias emotion perception of subsequent static faces, suggesting that facial movements elicit predictions that bias perception. Our findings reveal critical processes evoked in the perception of dynamic stimuli such as facial expressions, which can endow perception with temporal continuity.

  6. Prediction of activity of carbonic anhydrase inhibitor drugs based on QSAR studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Darzi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model, based on three quantum chemical descriptors obtained from the benzene sulphonamide derivatives using the density functional theory (DFT method. Then this developed model was used to predict the benzene sulphonamide binding constant. The QSAR model has correlation coefficient R of 0.901 and the standard error of 0.646. Also, the predictive power of this model was further examined by leave-7-out cross validation procedure which the obtained statistical parameters were: Q2= 0.991 and SPRESS= 0.4686 that giving a good enough predictive power. The selected descriptorsare: molecular weight (MW, absolute hardness (AH, HOMO energy (HOMO, respectively.

  7. Using social cognitive theory to predict physical activity and fitness in underserved middle school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-06-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using multiple regression analyses we accounted for 12% of the variance in PA and 13-21% of the variance in fitness. The best predictors of PA were barrier self-efficacy, classmate social support, and gender; whereas, only gender predicted fitness. The results affirmed the importance of barrier self-efficacy and gender differences. Our findings regarding classmate social support are some of the first to illuminate the importance of school-specific peers in promoting PA.

  8. Predicting Pyrolysis Products of PE, PP, and PET Using NRTL Activity Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mousa FakhrHoseini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using thermodynamic models is a desired method for predicting an equilibrium when occurring in a system. If a thermodynamic model can predict an equilibrium condition in a pyrolysis, for a new way will be open for scientists in predicting equilibrium in a reaction without need to kinetic models. In this work, low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene terephthalate were used instead of feed of pyrolysis process. The process was maintained at 500°C with 5 different temperature raising ratios 6, 8, 10, 12, and 14. Then the process was modeled thermodynamically using NRTL activity coefficient model. Using this model, the binary interaction coefficients were investigated for the system of “char, oil, and gas.” Results showed that polyethylene and polypropylene produced the maximum liquid product. Calculated RMSD objective function was 0.0157; that it is acceptable for this process.

  9. GABA(A) receptors in visual and auditory cortex and neural activity changes during basic visual stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Pengmin; Duncan, Niall W; Wiebking, Christine; Gravel, Paul; Lyttelton, Oliver; Hayes, Dave J; Verhaeghe, Jeroen; Kostikov, Alexey; Schirrmacher, Ralf; Reader, Andrew J; Northoff, Georg

    2012-01-01

    Recent imaging studies have demonstrated that levels of resting γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in the visual cortex predict the degree of stimulus-induced activity in the same region. These studies have used the presentation of discrete visual stimulus; the change from closed eyes to open also represents a simple visual stimulus, however, and has been shown to induce changes in local brain activity and in functional connectivity between regions. We thus aimed to investigate the role of the GABA system, specifically GABA(A) receptors, in the changes in brain activity between the eyes closed (EC) and eyes open (EO) state in order to provide detail at the receptor level to complement previous studies of GABA concentrations. We conducted an fMRI study involving two different modes of the change from EC to EO: an EO and EC block design, allowing the modeling of the haemodynamic response, followed by longer periods of EC and EO to allow the measuring of functional connectivity. The same subjects also underwent [(18)F]Flumazenil PET to measure GABA(A) receptor binding potentials. It was demonstrated that the local-to-global ratio of GABA(A) receptor binding potential in the visual cortex predicted the degree of changes in neural activity from EC to EO. This same relationship was also shown in the auditory cortex. Furthermore, the local-to-global ratio of GABA(A) receptor binding potential in the visual cortex also predicted the change in functional connectivity between the visual and auditory cortex from EC to EO. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of GABA(A) receptors in stimulus-induced neural activity in local regions and in inter-regional functional connectivity.

  10. Predicting trace organic compound attenuation with spectroscopic parameters in powdered activated carbon processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Austin D; Park, Minkyu; Anumol, Tarun; Snyder, Shane A

    2016-08-01

    The removal of trace organic compounds (TOrCs) is of growing interest in water research and society. Powdered activated carbon (PAC) has been proven to be an effective method of removal for TOrCs in water, with the degree of effectiveness depending on dosage, contact time, and activated carbon type. In this study, the attenuation of TOrCs in three different secondary wastewater effluents using four PAC materials was studied in order to elucidate the effectiveness and efficacy of PAC for TOrC removal. With the notable exception of hydrochlorothiazide, all 14 TOrC indicators tested in this study exhibited a positive correlation of removal rate with their log Dow values, demonstrating that the main adsorption mechanism was hydrophobic interaction. As a predictive model, the modified Chick-Watson model, often used for the prediction of microorganism inactivation by disinfectants, was applied. The applied model exhibited good predictive power for TOrC attenuation by PAC in wastewater. In addition, surrogate models based upon spectroscopic measurements including UV absorbance at 254 nm and total fluorescence were applied to predict TOrC removal by PAC. The surrogate model was found to provide an excellent prediction of TOrC attenuation for all combinations of water quality and PAC type included in this study. The success of spectrometric parameters as surrogates in predicting TOrC attenuation by PAC are particularly useful because of their potential application in real-time on-line sensor monitoring and process control at full-scale water treatment plants, which could lead to significantly reduced operator response times and PAC operational optimization.

  11. Regression-based prediction of net energy expenditure in children performing activities at high altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarton-Miller, Isabelle; Holman, Darryl J; Spielvogel, Hilde

    2003-01-01

    We developed a simple, non-invasive, and affordable method for estimating net energy expenditure (EE) in children performing activities at high altitude. A regression-based method predicts net oxygen consumption (VO(2)) from net heart rate (HR) along with several covariates. The method is atypical in that, the "net" measures are taken as the difference between exercise and resting VO(2) (DeltaVO(2)) and the difference between exercise and resting HR (DeltaHR); DeltaVO(2) partially corrects for resting metabolic rate and for posture, and DeltaHR controls for inter-individual variation in physiology and for posture. Twenty children between 8 and 13 years of age, born and raised in La Paz, Bolivia (altitude 3,600m), made up the reference sample. Anthropometric measures were taken, and VO(2) was assessed while the children performed graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. A repeated-measures prediction equation was developed, and maximum likelihood estimates of parameters were found from 75 observations on 20 children. The final model included the variables DeltaHR, DeltaHR(2), weight, and sex. The effectiveness of the method was established using leave-one-out cross-validation, yielding a prediction error rate of 0.126 for a mean DeltaVO(2) of 0.693 (SD 0.315). The correlation between the predicted and measured DeltaVO(2) was r = 0.917, suggesting that a useful prediction equation can be produced using paired VO(2) and HR measurements on a relatively small reference sample. The resulting prediction equation can be used for estimating EE from HR in free-living children performing habitual activities in the Bolivian Andes.

  12. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors.

  13. Early hepatic stellate cell activation predicts severe hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawrieh, Samer; Papouchado, Bettina G; Burgart, Lawrence J; Kobayashi, Shogo; Charlton, Michael R; Gores, Gregory J

    2005-10-01

    Only a subset of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients develop progressive hepatic fibrosis after liver transplantation (LT). Hepatic stellate cell (HSC) activation is a pivotal step in hepatic fibrosis and precedes clinically apparent fibrosis. We determined whether early HSC activation, measured in 4-month protocol post-LT biopsies, is predictive of subsequent development of more histologically severe recurrence of HCV. Early (4 month) post-LT HSC activation, as measured by alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA) staining, was determined in liver biopsies from recipients with severe (fibrosis score > or = 2, n = 13) and with mild (fibrosis score of 0, n = 13) recurrence of HCV at one-year post-LT. Immunohistochemical staining for alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA) was used to generate HSC activation scores (regional and total). Total HSC activation scores at 4 months were similar in patients with severe and mild HCV recurrence (3.9 +/- 2.0 vs. 2.7 +/- 2.2, P = 0.2). Regional HSC activation, assessed as parenchymal (zones 1, 2, and 3) or mesenchymal (portal tracts and fibrous septa), was different between the study groups, with higher mesenchymal scores predictive of progression. No patients in the mild recurrence group had detectable mesenchymal alpha-SMA staining vs. 46% (6/13) of patients with severe recurrence (P HCV or HSC-targeted therapy.

  14. Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Sutton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

  15. Predictive Factors of Clinical Response of Infliximab Therapy in Active Nonradiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhiming; Liao, Zetao; Huang, Jianlin; Ai, Maixing; Pan, Yunfeng; Wu, Henglian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Shuangyan; Li, Li; Wei, Qiujing; Tang, Deshen; Wei, Yanlin; Li, Tianwang; Wu, Yuqiong; Xu, Manlong; Li, Qiuxia; Jin, Ou; Yu, Buyun; Gu, Jieruo

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. To evaluate the efficiency and the predictive factors of clinical response of infliximab in active nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis patients. Methods. Active nonradiographic patients fulfilling ESSG criteria for SpA but not fulfilling modified New York criteria were included. All patients received infliximab treatment for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24. The abilities of baseline parameters and response at week 2 to predict ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24 were assessed using ROC curve and logistic regression analysis, respectively. Results. Of 70 axial SpA patients included, the proportions of patients achieving an ASAS20 response at weeks 2, 6, 12, and 24 were 85.7%, 88.6%, 87.1%, and 84.3%, respectively. Baseline MRI sacroiliitis score (AUC = 0.791; P = 0.005), CRP (AUC = 0.75; P = 0.017), and ASDAS (AUC = 0.778, P = 0.007) significantly predicted ASAS20 response at week 12. However, only ASDAS (AUC = 0.696, P = 0.040) significantly predicted ASAS20 response at week 24. Achievement of ASAS20 response after the first infliximab infusion was a significant predictor of subsequent ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24 (wald χ2 = 6.87, P = 0.009, and wald χ2 = 5.171, P = 0.023). Conclusions. Infliximab shows efficiency in active nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis patients. ASDAS score and first-dose response could help predicting clinical efficacy of infliximab therapy in these patients. PMID:26273654

  16. Social-cognitive theories for predicting physical activity behaviours of employed women with and without young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Leonor S; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Loucaides, Constantinos

    2009-03-01

    Chronic disease interventions for women have been understudied in the workplace domain. Understanding the role of cognitions in individual behaviour can help motivate change and suggest directions for achieving improvements in health. The purpose of this study was to identify psychosocial constructs and social-cognitive theories [e.g. Transtheoretical model (TTM), Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT)] that are most salient for explaining physical activity behaviour among employed women (n = 1183). Demographic information, and social-cognitive measures related to physical activity, intention and behaviours (e.g. stage of change, energy expenditure) were assessed. A series of multiple regression analyses predicting intention, energy expenditure and stage of change were conducted separately for: (1) women with young children (n = 302), and (2) women without young children (n = 881) for each of the respective social-cognitive theories. Although taken as a whole the results were relatively similar between the two sub-groups of women for each of the socio-cognitive theories examined in this study, differences were observed in the relative contributions of the theoretical constructs between the two sub-groups. Results also indicate that self-efficacy and intention were the strongest predictors of behaviour among both women with and without young children. The explained variances (R(2)) for the theories examined in this study for different sub-groups ranged from 16 to 60%, generally reflecting what has been reported in other studies within the physical activity domain. The results of this study could be useful in guiding future research and in designing physical activity intervention programs for these specific population groups. Integrating approaches of individual lifestyle change while addressing issues related to creating supportive environments for women in various life stages is a suggested strategy

  17. Low skin conductance activity in infancy predicts aggression in toddlers 2 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Erika; Shelton, Katherine H; Baibazarova, Eugenia; Hay, Dale F; van Goozen, Stephanie H M

    2013-06-01

    Low autonomic nervous system activity is claimed to be a biomarker for aggressive and antisocial behavior. Although there is evidence that low skin conductance activity (SCA) accounts for variation in the severity of antisocial behavior and predicts the onset of aggression in children and adults, it is unknown whether SCA measured in infancy can predict the development of aggression. We measured SCA in 70 typically developing 1-year-old infants at baseline, during an orienting habituation paradigm, and during a fear challenge. We also observed the infants' fear behavior, and each mother rated her infant's temperament and her attachment to her child. At follow-up, mothers rated the children at 3 years old for aggressive and nonaggressive behavior problems. Low infant SCA predicted aggressive behavior, but there was no association between SCA and nonaggressive behavior problems. Mothers' ratings of the infants' temperament and their maternal attachment and the infants' observed fearlessness did not predict later aggression. These results suggest that SCA is a specific biomarker for aggression in low-risk samples of infants.

  18. Real-time prediction of neuronal population spiking activity using FPGA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Will X Y; Cheung, Ray C C; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W

    2013-08-01

    A field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based hardware architecture is proposed and utilized for prediction of neuronal population firing activity. The hardware system adopts the multi-input multi-output (MIMO) generalized Laguerre-Volterra model (GLVM) structure to describe the nonlinear dynamic neural process of mammalian brain and can switch between the two important functions: estimation of GLVM coefficients and prediction of neuronal population spiking activity (model outputs). The model coefficients are first estimated using the in-sample training data; then the output is predicted using the out-of-sample testing data and the field estimated coefficients. Test results show that compared with previous software implementation of the generalized Laguerre-Volterra algorithm running on an Intel Core i7-2620M CPU, the FPGA-based hardware system can achieve up to 2.66×10(3) speedup in doing model parameters estimation and 698.84 speedup in doing model output prediction. The proposed hardware platform will facilitate research on the highly nonlinear neural process of the mammal brain, and the cognitive neural prosthesis design.

  19. The Brain Activity in Brodmann Area 17: A Potential Bio-Marker to Predict Patient Responses to Antiepileptic Drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yida Hu

    Full Text Available In this study, we aimed to predict newly diagnosed patient responses to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging tools to explore changes in spontaneous brain activity. We recruited 21 newly diagnosed epileptic patients, 8 drug-resistant (DR patients, 11 well-healed (WH patients, and 13 healthy controls. After a 12-month follow-up, 11 newly diagnosed epileptic patients who showed a poor response to AEDs were placed into the seizures uncontrolled (SUC group, while 10 patients were enrolled in the seizure-controlled (SC group. By calculating the amplitude of fractional low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF of blood oxygen level-dependent signals to measure brain activity during rest, we found that the SUC patients showed increased activity in the bilateral occipital lobe, particularly in the cuneus and lingual gyrus compared with the SC group and healthy controls. Interestingly, DR patients also showed increased activity in the identical cuneus and lingual gyrus regions, which comprise Brodmann's area 17 (BA17, compared with the SUC patients; however, these abnormalities were not observed in SC and WH patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves indicated that the fALFF value of BA17 could differentiate SUC patients from SC patients and healthy controls with sufficient sensitivity and specificity prior to the administration of medication. Functional connectivity analysis was subsequently performed to evaluate the difference in connectivity between BA17 and other brain regions in the SUC, SC and control groups. Regions nearby the cuneus and lingual gyrus were found positive connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity changes with BA17 in the SUC patients, while remarkably negative connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity decreased changes were found in the SC patients. Additionally, default mode network (DMN regions showed negative connectivity increased changes or

  20. Does an understanding of ecosystems responses to rainfall pulses improve predictions of responses of drylands to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drylands will experience more intense and frequent droughts and floods. Ten-year field experiments manipulating the amount and variability of precipitation suggest that we cannot predict responses of drylands to climate change based on pulse experimentation. Long-term drought experiments showed no e...

  1. New mechanistically based model for predicting reduction of biosolids waste by ozonation of return activated sludge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isazadeh, Siavash; Feng, Min; Urbina Rivas, Luis Enrique; Frigon, Dominic

    2014-04-15

    Two pilot-scale activated sludge reactors were operated for 98 days to provide the necessary data to develop and validate a new mathematical model predicting the reduction of biosolids production by ozonation of the return activated sludge (RAS). Three ozone doses were tested during the study. In addition to the pilot-scale study, laboratory-scale experiments were conducted with mixed liquor suspended solids and with pure cultures to parameterize the biomass inactivation process during exposure to ozone. The experiments revealed that biomass inactivation occurred even at the lowest doses, but that it was not associated with extensive COD solubilization. For validation, the model was used to simulate the temporal dynamics of the pilot-scale operational data. Increasing the description accuracy of the inactivation process improved the precision of the model in predicting the operational data.

  2. An illusion predicted by V1 population activity implicates cortical topography in shape perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Melchi M; Chen, Yuzhi; Geisler, Wilson S; Seidemann, Eyal

    2013-10-01

    Mammalian primary visual cortex (V1) is topographically organized such that the pattern of neural activation in V1 reflects the location and spatial extent of visual elements in the retinal image, but it is unclear whether this organization contributes to visual perception. We combined computational modeling, voltage-sensitive dye imaging (VSDI) in behaving monkeys and behavioral measurements in humans to investigate whether the large-scale topography of V1 population responses influences shape judgments. Specifically, we used a computational model to design visual stimuli that had the same physical shape, but were predicted to elicit variable V1 response spread. We confirmed these predictions with VSDI. Finally, we designed a behavioral task in which human observers judged the shapes of these stimuli and found that their judgments were systematically distorted by the spread of V1 activity. This illusion suggests that the topographic pattern of neural population responses in visual cortex contributes to visual perception.

  3. Change in self-esteem predicts depressive symptoms at follow-up after intensive multimodal psychotherapy for major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinger, Ulrike; Ehrenthal, Johannes C; Nikendei, Christoph; Schauenburg, Henning

    2017-01-08

    Reduced self-esteem is a core symptom of depression, but few studies have investigated within-treatment change of self-esteem as a predictor of long-term outcome in depression. This study investigated change in self-esteem during 8 weeks of multimodal, psychodynamically oriented psychotherapy for 40 depressed patients and tested whether it would predict outcome 6 months after termination. Data was drawn from a randomized clinical pilot trial on day-clinic versus inpatient psychotherapy for depression. Findings supported the association between change in self-esteem and follow-up depression severity, even when controlling for within-treatment symptom change. Change in self-esteem was not related to overall symptoms and interpersonal problems at follow-up. Thus, change in self-esteem may be an important variable in preventing relapse for depression.

  4. COMPASS: A computational model to predict changes in MMSE scores 24-months after initial assessment of Alzheimer’s disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Fan; Panwar, Bharat; Dodge, Hiroko H.; Li, Hongdong; Hampstead, Benjamin M.; Albin, Roger L.; Paulson, Henry L.; Guan, Yuanfang

    2016-01-01

    We present COMPASS, a COmputational Model to Predict the development of Alzheimer’s diSease Spectrum, to model Alzheimer’s disease (AD) progression. This was the best-performing method in recent crowdsourcing benchmark study, DREAM Alzheimer’s Disease Big Data challenge to predict changes in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores over 24-months using standardized data. In the present study, we conducted three additional analyses beyond the DREAM challenge question to improve the clinical contribution of our approach, including: (1) adding pre-validated baseline cognitive composite scores of ADNI-MEM and ADNI-EF, (2) identifying subjects with significant declines in MMSE scores, and (3) incorporating SNPs of top 10 genes connected to APOE identified from functional-relationship network. For (1) above, we significantly improved predictive accuracy, especially for the Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) group. For (2), we achieved an area under ROC of 0.814 in predicting significant MMSE decline: our model has 100% precision at 5% recall, and 91% accuracy at 10% recall. For (3), “genetic only” model has Pearson’s correlation of 0.15 to predict progression in the MCI group. Even though addition of this limited genetic model to COMPASS did not improve prediction of progression of MCI group, the predictive ability of SNP information extended beyond well-known APOE allele. PMID:27703197

  5. A rest-activity biomarker to predict response to SSRIs in major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, W Vaughn

    2015-05-01

    Most adults with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) will not experience a remission with the first antidepressant trial. No practical biomarkers presently exist to predict responsiveness to antidepressants. Herein we report pilot data for a rest-activity biomarker of antidepressant response. Fifty-eight medication-free adults with MDD underwent a week-long collection of actigraphic data before beginning a 9 week open label trial of fluoxetine, coupled with blinded randomized assignment to eszopiclone/placebo. Depression severity was repeatedly measured with the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD). Baseline actigraphic data was analyzed with functional data analysis to create smoothed 24-h curves of activity. The time of the lowest point of activity (the bathyphase) was calculated for each patient, as well the mean difference between bedtime and the bathyphase (BBD). At the end of treatment, patients were characterized as treatment responders (50% reduction in HRSD) or non-responders, and receiver operating curves were calculated to find the optimal cut point of the BBD for prediction of treatment response. The best cut point for BBD was at 260.2 min, resulting in an effect size of 1.45, and with a positive predictive value of 0.75 and a negative predictive value of 0.88. We conclude that actigraphically-determined measures of rest-activity patterns show promise as potential biomarker predictors of antidepressant response. However, this conclusion is based upon a small number of patients who received only one choice of antidepressant, for a single trial. Replication with a larger sample is needed.

  6. Urinary aminopeptidase activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Quesada

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the fluorimetric determination of alanyl- (Ala, glutamyl- (Glu, leucyl-cystinyl- (Cys and aspartyl-aminopeptidase (AspAp urinary enzymatic activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 8 each group received a single subcutaneous injection of either saline or cisplatin 3.5 or 7 mg/kg, and urine samples were taken at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 14 days after treatment. In urine samples we determined Ala, Glu, Cys and AspAp activities, proteinuria, N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG, albumin, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL. Plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and renal morphological variables were measured at the end of the experiment. CysAp, NAG and albumin were increased 48 hours after treatment in the cisplatin 3.5 mg/kg treated group. At 24 hours, all urinary aminopeptidase activities and albuminuria were significantly increased in the cisplatin 7 mg/kg treated group. Aminopeptidase urinary activities correlated (p0.259 with plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and/or kidney weight/body weight ratio at the end of the experiment and they could be considered as predictive biomarkers of renal injury severity. ROC-AUC analysis was made to study their sensitivity and specificity to distinguish between treated and untreated rats at day 1. All aminopeptidase activities showed an AUC>0.633. We conclude that Ala, Cys, Glu and AspAp enzymatic activities are early and predictive urinary biomarkers of the renal dysfunction induced by cisplatin. These determinations can be very useful in the prognostic and diagnostic of renal dysfunction in preclinical research and clinical practice.

  7. Confirmation of linear system theory prediction: Changes in Herrnstein's k as a function of changes in reinforcer magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, J. J; Wood, Helena M.

    1984-01-01

    Eight human subjects pressed a lever on a range of variable-interval schedules for 0.25¢ to 35.0¢ per reinforcement. Herrnstein's hyperbola described seven of the eight subjects' response-rate data well. For all subjects, the y-asymptote of the hyperbola increased with increasing reinforcer magnitude and its reciprocal was a linear function of the reciprocal of reinforcer magnitude. These results confirm predictions made by linear system theory; they contradict formal properties of Herrnstein's account and of six other mathematical accounts of single-alternative responding. PMID:16812366

  8. Climate Change Science Activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert M.

    2016-03-23

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has actively pursued research in the effects of climate change on the hydrology of New England. Ongoing focus areas of climate change science activities of the USGS in New England include the following:

  9. Prediction of mutant activity and its application in molecular design of tumor necrosis factor-a

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐卫东; 奚涛; 王波; 郭冬林; 徐贤秀; 朱德煦

    1997-01-01

    Two models for prediction of the activity and stability of site-directed mutagenesis on tumor necrosis factor-α are established. The models are based on straightforward structural considerations, which do not require the elaboration of site-directed mutagenesis on the protein core and the hydrophobic surface area by analyzing the properties of the mutated amino acid residues. The reliabilities of the models have been tested by analyzing the mutants of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) whose two leucine residues (L29, L157) were mutated. Based on these models, a TNF-α mutant with high activity was created by molecular design.

  10. A model to predict deflection of bevel-tipped active needle advancing in soft tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datla, Naresh V; Konh, Bardia; Honarvar, Mohammad; Podder, Tarun K; Dicker, Adam P; Yu, Yan; Hutapea, Parsaoran

    2014-03-01

    Active needles are recently being developed to improve steerability and placement accuracy for various medical applications. These active needles can bend during insertion by actuators attached to their bodies. The bending of active needles enables them to be steered away from the critical organs on the way to target and accurately reach target locations previously unachievable with conventional rigid needles. These active needles combined with an asymmetric bevel-tip can further improve their steerability. To optimize the design and to develop accurate path planning and control algorithms, there is a need to develop a tissue-needle interaction model. This work presents an energy-based model that predicts needle deflection of active bevel-tipped needles when inserted into the tissue. This current model was based on an existing energy-based model for bevel-tipped needles, to which work of actuation was included in calculating the system energy. The developed model was validated with needle insertion experiments with a phantom material. The model predicts needle deflection reasonably for higher diameter needles (11.6% error), whereas largest error was observed for the smallest needle diameter (24.7% error).

  11. A cluster expansion model for predicting activation barrier of atomic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehman, Tafizur; Jaipal, M. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208 016 (India); Chatterjee, Abhijit, E-mail: achatter@iitk.ac.in [Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208 016 (India); Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 (India)

    2013-06-15

    We introduce a procedure based on cluster expansion models for predicting the activation barrier of atomic processes encountered while studying the dynamics of a material system using the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method. Starting with an interatomic potential description, a mathematical derivation is presented to show that the local environment dependence of the activation barrier can be captured using cluster interaction models. Next, we develop a systematic procedure for training the cluster interaction model on-the-fly, which involves: (i) obtaining activation barriers for handful local environments using nudged elastic band (NEB) calculations, (ii) identifying the local environment by analyzing the NEB results, and (iii) estimating the cluster interaction model parameters from the activation barrier data. Once a cluster expansion model has been trained, it is used to predict activation barriers without requiring any additional NEB calculations. Numerical studies are performed to validate the cluster expansion model by studying hop processes in Ag/Ag(100). We show that the use of cluster expansion model with KMC enables efficient generation of an accurate process rate catalog.

  12. Landscape genetics as a tool for conservation planning: predicting the effects of landscape change on gene flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Strien, Maarten J; Keller, Daniela; Holderegger, Rolf; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Kienast, Felix; Bolliger, Janine

    2014-03-01

    For conservation managers, it is important to know whether landscape changes lead to increasing or decreasing gene flow. Although the discipline of landscape genetics assesses the influence of landscape elements on gene flow, no studies have yet used landscape-genetic models to predict gene flow resulting from landscape change. A species that has already been severely affected by landscape change is the large marsh grasshopper (Stethophyma grossum), which inhabits moist areas in fragmented agricultural landscapes in Switzerland. From transects drawn between all population pairs within maximum dispersal distance (landscape planning.

  13. Predicting the Trend of Land Use Changes Using Artificial Neural Network and Markov Chain Model (Case Study: Kermanshah City)

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, cities are expanding and developing with a rapid growth, so that the urban development process is currently one of the most important issues facing researchers in urban issues. In addition to the growth of the cities, how land use changes in macro level is also considered. Studying the changes and degradation of the resources in the past few years, as well as feasibility study and predicting these changes in the future years may play a significant role in planning and optimal use of...

  14. Creative elements: network-based predictions of active centres in proteins, cellular and social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Csermely, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Active centres and hot spots of proteins have a paramount importance in enzyme action, protein complex formation and drug design. Recently a number of publications successfully applied the analysis of residue networks to predict active centres in proteins. Most real-world networks show a number of properties, such as small-worldness or scale-free degree distribution, which are rather general features of networks from molecules to the society. Based on extensive analogies I propose that the existing findings and methodology enable us to detect active centres in cells, social networks and ecosystems. Members of these active centres are creative elements of the respective networks, which may help them to survive unprecedented, novel challenges, and play a key role in the development, survival and evolvability of complex systems.

  15. Predicting Kinase Activity in Angiotensin Receptor Phosphoproteomes Based on Sequence-Motifs and Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgebo, Rikke; Horn, Heiko; Olsen, Jesper V;

    2014-01-01

    -arrestin dependent signalling. Two complimentary global phosphoproteomics studies have analyzed the complex signalling induced by the AT1aR. Here we integrate the data sets from these studies and perform a joint analysis using a novel method for prediction of differential kinase activity from phosphoproteomics data......Recent progress in the understanding of seven-transmembrane receptor (7TMR) signalling has promoted the development of a new generation of pathway selective ligands. The angiotensin II type I receptor (AT1aR) is one of the most studied 7TMRs with respect to selective activation of the β...... likely activated kinases. This suggested that AT1aR-dependent signalling activates 48 of the 285 kinases detected in HEK293 cells. Of these, Aurora B, CLK3 and PKG1 have not previously been described in the pathway whereas others, such as PKA, PKB and PKC, are well known. In summary, we have developed...

  16. Examining Changes in Radioxenon Isotope Activity Ratios during Subsurface Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annewandter, Robert

    2014-05-01

    The Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE) has demonstrated and modelled the usefulness of barometric pumping induced gas transport and subsequent soil gas sampling during On-Site inspections. Generally, gas transport has been widely studied with different numerical codes. However, gas transport of radioxenons and radioiodines in the post-detonation regime and their possible fractionation is still neglected in the open peer-reviewed literature. Atmospheric concentrations of the radioxenons Xe-135, Xe-133m, Xe-133 and Xe-131m can be used to discriminate between civilian releases (nuclear power plants or medical isotope facilities), and nuclear explosion sources. It is based on the multiple isotopic activity ratio method. Yet it is not clear whether subsurface migration of the radionuclides, with eventual release into the atmosphere, can affect the activity ratios due to fractionation. Fractionation can be caused by different mass diffusivities due to mass differences between the radionuclides. Cyclical changes in atmospheric pressure can drive subsurface gas transport. This barometric pumping phenomenon causes an oscillatoric flow in upward trending fractures or highly conductive faults which, combined with diffusion into the porous matrix, leads to a net transport of gaseous components - a so-called ratcheting effect. We use a general purpose reservoir simulator (Complex System Modelling Platform, CSMP++) which is recognized by the oil industry as leading in Discrete Fracture-Matrix (DFM) simulations. It has been applied in a range of fields such as deep geothermal systems, three-phase black oil simulations, fracture propagation in fractured, porous media, and Navier-Stokes pore-scale modelling among others. It is specifically designed to account for structurally complex geologic situation of fractured, porous media. Parabolic differential equations are solved by a continuous Galerkin finite-element method, hyperbolic differential equations by a complementary finite

  17. Probabilistic methods for improved change detection and prediction on sandy beaches using high resolution airborne lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starek, Michael John

    Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) can sample beach topography at orders of magnitude higher spatial resolutions than is practical with standard surveying methods. Data mining and pattern classification techniques offer great potential for coastal monitoring with lidar, but have been relatively unexplored. In the following research, three main contributions are presented: (1) systematic framework to mine high resolution lidar data over a beach, (2) information-theoretic approach to detect morphology indicative of erosion, (3) first research to explore modern probabilistic classifiers to model the effect of morphology on probability of erosion. Lidar surveys were conducted over a beach on the east coast of Florida multiple times between 2003 and 2007. Through automated profile sampling, several different features are extracted from the data and segmented into binary erosion or accretion classes. Divergence measures are used to rank class separation between features. The more separation provided by a feature, the greater its potential as a morphologic indicator. Morphologic indicators can improve beach monitoring providing insight into the change dynamics and for classifying high impact zones. Deviation-from-trend performed best overall, and it is a contributing factor to anomalous erosion in the study area. Over shorter epochs, slope based features ranked high. A naive Bayes classifier is implemented to test the ability of the features on classifying erosion zones. The top features selected by divergence outperformed correlation and a median metric by approximately 5% and 3% supporting the utility of the divergence method. To evaluate the joint effect of the features on the outcome of erosion, logistic regression is utilized. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) is applied to handle spatial correlation in the binary responses. To reduce model over fitting and address collinearity among the features, Lasso regression is employed. The ability of the

  18. Predicting effects of climate and land use change on human well-being via changes in ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landuse and climate change have affected biological systems in many parts of the world, and are projected to further adversely affect associated ecosystem goods and services, including provisioning of clean air, clean water, food, and biodiversity. Such adverse effects on ecosyst...

  19. Varying responses of vegetation activity to climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Nan; Shen, Miaogen; Yang, Wei; Yang, Zhiyong; Zhang, Gengxin; Piao, Shilong

    2017-02-01

    Vegetation activity on the Tibetan Plateau grassland has been substantially enhanced as a result of climate change, as revealed by satellite observations of vegetation greenness (i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, little is known about the temporal variations in the relationships between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, and understanding this is essential for predicting how future climate change would affect vegetation activity. Using NDVI data and meteorological records from 1982 to 2011, we found that the inter-annual partial correlation coefficient between growing season (May-September) NDVI and temperature (RNDVI-T) in a 15-year moving window for alpine meadow showed little change, likely caused by the increasing RNDVI-T in spring (May-June) and autumn (September) and decreasing RNDVI-T in summer (July-August). Growing season RNDVI-T for alpine steppe increased slightly, mainly due to increasing RNDVI-T in spring and autumn. The partial correlation coefficient between growing season NDVI and precipitation (RNDVI-P) for alpine meadow increased slightly, mainly in spring and summer, and RNDVI-P for alpine steppe increased, mainly in spring. Moreover, RNDVI-T for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with more precipitation for alpine steppe. RNDVI-P for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with higher temperature, and this tendency was stronger for alpine meadow than for alpine steppe. These r