Fast and Accurate Hybrid Stream PCRTMSOLAR Radiative Transfer Model for Reflected Solar Spectrum Simulation in the Cloudy Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiguang; Liu, Xu; Wu, Wan; Kizer, Susan; Baize, Rosemary R.

2016-01-01

A hybrid stream PCRTM-SOLAR model has been proposed for fast and accurate radiative transfer simulation. It calculates the reflected solar (RS) radiances with a fast coarse way and then, with the help of a pre-saved matrix, transforms the results to obtain the desired high accurate RS spectrum. The methodology has been demonstrated with the hybrid stream discrete ordinate (HSDO) radiative transfer (RT) model. The HSDO method calculates the monochromatic radiances using a 4-stream discrete ordinate method, where only a small number of monochromatic radiances are simulated with both 4-stream and a larger N-stream (N = 16) discrete ordinate RT algorithm. The accuracy of the obtained channel radiance is comparable to the result from N-stream moderate resolution atmospheric transmission version 5 (MODTRAN5). The root-mean-square errors are usually less than 5x10(exp -4) mW/sq cm/sr/cm. The computational speed is three to four-orders of magnitude faster than the medium speed correlated-k option MODTRAN5. This method is very efficient to simulate thousands of RS spectra under multi-layer clouds/aerosols and solar radiation conditions for climate change study and numerical weather prediction applications.

A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

Developing hybrid approaches to predict pKa values of ionizable groups

Science.gov (United States)

Witham, Shawn; Talley, Kemper; Wang, Lin; Zhang, Zhe; Sarkar, Subhra; Gao, Daquan; Yang, Wei

2011-01-01

Accurate predictions of pKa values of titratable groups require taking into account all relevant processes associated with the ionization/deionization. Frequently, however, the ionization does not involve significant structural changes and the dominating effects are purely electrostatic in origin allowing accurate predictions to be made based on the electrostatic energy difference between ionized and neutral forms alone using a static structure. On another hand, if the change of the charge state is accompanied by a structural reorganization of the target protein, then the relevant conformational changes have to be taken into account in the pKa calculations. Here we report a hybrid approach that first predicts the titratable groups, which ionization is expected to cause conformational changes, termed “problematic” residues, then applies a special protocol on them, while the rest of the pKa’s are predicted with rigid backbone approach as implemented in multi-conformation continuum electrostatics (MCCE) method. The backbone representative conformations for “problematic” groups are generated with either molecular dynamics simulations with charged and uncharged amino acid or with ab-initio local segment modeling. The corresponding ensembles are then used to calculate the pKa of the “problematic” residues and then the results are averaged. PMID:21744395

Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyu Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

Accurate Multisteps Traffic Flow Prediction Based on SVM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Mingheng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is prerequisite and important for realizing intelligent traffic control and guidance, and it is also the objective requirement for intelligent traffic management. Due to the strong nonlinear, stochastic, time-varying characteristics of urban transport system, artificial intelligence methods such as support vector machine (SVM are now receiving more and more attentions in this research field. Compared with the traditional single-step prediction method, the multisteps prediction has the ability that can predict the traffic state trends over a certain period in the future. From the perspective of dynamic decision, it is far important than the current traffic condition obtained. Thus, in this paper, an accurate multi-steps traffic flow prediction model based on SVM was proposed. In which, the input vectors were comprised of actual traffic volume and four different types of input vectors were compared to verify their prediction performance with each other. Finally, the model was verified with actual data in the empirical analysis phase and the test results showed that the proposed SVM model had a good ability for traffic flow prediction and the SVM-HPT model outperformed the other three models for prediction.

An Efficient Hybrid DSMC/MD Algorithm for Accurate Modeling of Micro Gas Flows

KAUST Repository

Liang, Tengfei

2013-01-01

Aiming at simulating micro gas flows with accurate boundary conditions, an efficient hybrid algorithmis developed by combining themolecular dynamics (MD) method with the direct simulationMonte Carlo (DSMC)method. The efficiency comes from the fact that theMD method is applied only within the gas-wall interaction layer, characterized by the cut-off distance of the gas-solid interaction potential, to resolve accurately the gas-wall interaction process, while the DSMC method is employed in the remaining portion of the flow field to efficiently simulate rarefied gas transport outside the gas-wall interaction layer. A unique feature about the present scheme is that the coupling between the two methods is realized by matching the molecular velocity distribution function at the DSMC/MD interface, hence there is no need for one-toone mapping between a MD gas molecule and a DSMC simulation particle. Further improvement in efficiency is achieved by taking advantage of gas rarefaction inside the gas-wall interaction layer and by employing the "smart-wall model" proposed by Barisik et al. The developed hybrid algorithm is validated on two classical benchmarks namely 1-D Fourier thermal problem and Couette shear flow problem. Both the accuracy and efficiency of the hybrid algorithm are discussed. As an application, the hybrid algorithm is employed to simulate thermal transpiration coefficient in the free-molecule regime for a system with atomically smooth surface. Result is utilized to validate the coefficients calculated from the pure DSMC simulation with Maxwell and Cercignani-Lampis gas-wall interaction models. ©c 2014 Global-Science Press.

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Montri Inthachot

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

Genome-Wide Prediction of the Performance of Three-Way Hybrids in Barley

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Zuo Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Predicting the grain yield performance of three-way hybrids is challenging. Three-way crosses are relevant for hybrid breeding in barley ( L. and maize ( L. adapted to East Africa. The main goal of our study was to implement and evaluate genome-wide prediction approaches of the performance of three-way hybrids using data of single-cross hybrids for a scenario in which parental lines of the three-way hybrids originate from three genetically distinct subpopulations. We extended the ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RRBLUP and devised a genomic selection model allowing for subpopulation-specific marker effects (GSA-RRBLUP: general and subpopulation-specific additive RRBLUP. Using an empirical barley data set, we showed that applying GSA-RRBLUP tripled the prediction ability of three-way hybrids from 0.095 to 0.308 compared with RRBLUP, modeling one additive effect for all three subpopulations. The experimental findings were further substantiated with computer simulations. Our results emphasize the potential of GSA-RRBLUP to improve genome-wide hybrid prediction of three-way hybrids for scenarios of genetically diverse parental populations. Because of the advantages of the GSA-RRBLUP model in dealing with hybrids from different parental populations, it may also be a promising approach to boost the prediction ability for hybrid breeding programs based on genetically diverse heterotic groups.

Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng; Pota, Hemanshu; Gadh, Rajit

2016-05-02

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

Neural and hybrid modeling: an alternative route to efficiently predict the behavior of biotechnological processes aimed at biofuels obtainment.

Science.gov (United States)

Curcio, Stefano; Saraceno, Alessandra; Calabrò, Vincenza; Iorio, Gabriele

2014-01-01

The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

Highly Accurate Prediction of Jobs Runtime Classes

OpenAIRE

Reiner-Benaim, Anat; Grabarnick, Anna; Shmueli, Edi

2016-01-01

Separating the short jobs from the long is a known technique to improve scheduling performance. In this paper we describe a method we developed for accurately predicting the runtimes classes of the jobs to enable this separation. Our method uses the fact that the runtimes can be represented as a mixture of overlapping Gaussian distributions, in order to train a CART classifier to provide the prediction. The threshold that separates the short jobs from the long jobs is determined during the ev...

An efficient hybrid technique in RCS predictions of complex targets at high frequencies

Science.gov (United States)

Algar, María-Jesús; Lozano, Lorena; Moreno, Javier; González, Iván; Cátedra, Felipe

2017-09-01

Most computer codes in Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction use Physical Optics (PO) and Physical theory of Diffraction (PTD) combined with Geometrical Optics (GO) and Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD). The latter approaches are computationally cheaper and much more accurate for curved surfaces, but not applicable for the computation of the RCS of all surfaces of a complex object due to the presence of caustic problems in the analysis of concave surfaces or flat surfaces in the far field. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a hybrid method based on a new combination of two asymptotic techniques: GTD and PO, considering the advantages and avoiding the disadvantages of each of them. A very efficient and accurate method to analyze the RCS of complex structures at high frequencies is obtained with the new combination. The proposed new method has been validated comparing RCS results obtained for some simple cases using the proposed approach and RCS using the rigorous technique of Method of Moments (MoM). Some complex cases have been examined at high frequencies contrasting the results with PO. This study shows the accuracy and the efficiency of the hybrid method and its suitability for the computation of the RCS at really large and complex targets at high frequencies.

Neural and Hybrid Modeling: An Alternative Route to Efficiently Predict the Behavior of Biotechnological Processes Aimed at Biofuels Obtainment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Curcio

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

Hybrid functional pseudopotentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jing; Tan, Liang Z.; Rappe, Andrew M.

2018-02-01

The consistency between the exchange-correlation functional used in pseudopotential construction and in the actual density functional theory calculation is essential for the accurate prediction of fundamental properties of materials. However, routine hybrid density functional calculations at present still rely on generalized gradient approximation pseudopotentials due to the lack of hybrid functional pseudopotentials. Here, we present a scheme for generating hybrid functional pseudopotentials, and we analyze the importance of pseudopotential density functional consistency for hybrid functionals. For the PBE0 hybrid functional, we benchmark our pseudopotentials for structural parameters and fundamental electronic gaps of the Gaussian-2 (G2) molecular dataset and some simple solids. Our results show that using our PBE0 pseudopotentials in PBE0 calculations improves agreement with respect to all-electron calculations.

Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

KAUST Repository

Harb, Moussab

2015-01-01

Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

Predicting suitable optoelectronic properties of monoclinic VON semiconductor crystals for photovoltaics using accurate first-principles computations

KAUST Repository

Harb, Moussab

2015-08-26

Using accurate first-principles quantum calculations based on DFT (including the perturbation theory DFPT) with the range-separated hybrid HSE06 exchange-correlation functional, we predict essential fundamental properties (such as bandgap, optical absorption coefficient, dielectric constant, charge carrier effective masses and exciton binding energy) of two stable monoclinic vanadium oxynitride (VON) semiconductor crystals for solar energy conversion applications. In addition to the predicted band gaps in the optimal range for making single-junction solar cells, both polymorphs exhibit relatively high absorption efficiencies in the visible range, high dielectric constants, high charge carrier mobilities and much lower exciton binding energies than the thermal energy at room temperature. Moreover, their optical absorption, dielectric and exciton dissociation properties are found to be better than those obtained for semiconductors frequently utilized in photovoltaic devices like Si, CdTe and GaAs. These novel results offer a great opportunity for this stoichiometric VON material to be properly synthesized and considered as a new good candidate for photovoltaic applications.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Model predictive control of hybrid systems : stability and robustness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lazar, M.

2006-01-01

This thesis considers the stabilization and the robust stabilization of certain classes of hybrid systems using model predictive control. Hybrid systems represent a broad class of dynamical systems in which discrete behavior (usually described by a finite state machine) and continuous behavior

Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

2017-09-01

Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

Number of Clusters and the Quality of Hybrid Predictive Models in Analytical CRM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łapczyński Mariusz

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Making more accurate marketing decisions by managers requires building effective predictive models. Typically, these models specify the probability of customer belonging to a particular category, group or segment. The analytical CRM categories refer to customers interested in starting cooperation with the company (acquisition models, customers who purchase additional products (cross- and up-sell models or customers intending to resign from the cooperation (churn models. During building predictive models researchers use analytical tools from various disciplines with an emphasis on their best performance. This article attempts to build a hybrid predictive model combining decision trees (C&RT algorithm and cluster analysis (k-means. During experiments five different cluster validity indices and eight datasets were used. The performance of models was evaluated by using popular measures such as: accuracy, precision, recall, G-mean, F-measure and lift in the first and in the second decile. The authors tried to find a connection between the number of clusters and models' quality.

Influential Factors for Accurate Load Prediction in a Demand Response Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wollsen, Morten Gill; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2016-01-01

Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence....... Next, the time of day that is being predicted greatly influence the prediction which is related to the weather pattern. By presenting these results we hope to improve the modeling of building loads and algorithms for Demand Response planning.......Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence...

A new solar power output prediction based on hybrid forecast engine and decomposition model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Weijiang; Dang, Hongshe; Simoes, Rolando

2018-06-12

Regarding to the growing trend of photovoltaic (PV) energy as a clean energy source in electrical networks and its uncertain nature, PV energy prediction has been proposed by researchers in recent decades. This problem is directly effects on operation in power network while, due to high volatility of this signal, an accurate prediction model is demanded. A new prediction model based on Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) and integration of improved empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) with feature selection and forecast engine is presented in this paper. The proposed approach is divided into three main sections. In the first section, the signal is decomposed by the proposed IEMD as an accurate decomposition tool. To increase the accuracy of the proposed method, a new interpolation method has been used instead of cubic spline curve (CSC) fitting in EMD. Then the obtained output is entered into the new feature selection procedure to choose the best candidate inputs. Finally, the signal is predicted by a hybrid forecast engine composed of support vector regression (SVR) based on an intelligent algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified over a number of real-world engineering test cases in comparison with other well-known models. The obtained results prove the validity of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accurate predictions for the LHC made easy

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2014-01-01

The data recorded by the LHC experiments is of a very high quality. To get the most out of the data, precise theory predictions, including uncertainty estimates, are needed to reduce as much as possible theoretical bias in the experimental analyses. Recently, significant progress has been made in computing Next-to-Leading Order (NLO) computations, including matching to the parton shower, that allow for these accurate, hadron-level predictions. I shall discuss one of these efforts, the MadGraph5_aMC@NLO program, that aims at the complete automation of predictions at the NLO accuracy within the SM as well as New Physics theories. I’ll illustrate some of the theoretical ideas behind this program, show some selected applications to LHC physics, as well as describe the future plans.

Screened exchange hybrid density functional for accurate and efficient structures and interaction energies.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandenburg, Jan Gerit; Caldeweyher, Eike; Grimme, Stefan

2016-06-21

We extend the recently introduced PBEh-3c global hybrid density functional [S. Grimme et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2015, 143, 054107] by a screened Fock exchange variant based on the Henderson-Janesko-Scuseria exchange hole model. While the excellent performance of the global hybrid is maintained for small covalently bound molecules, its performance for computed condensed phase mass densities is further improved. Most importantly, a speed up of 30 to 50% can be achieved and especially for small orbital energy gap cases, the method is numerically much more robust. The latter point is important for many applications, e.g., for metal-organic frameworks, organic semiconductors, or protein structures. This enables an accurate density functional based electronic structure calculation of a full DNA helix structure on a single core desktop computer which is presented as an example in addition to comprehensive benchmark results.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

2014-05-01

The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

Prediction of Accurate Mixed Mode Fatigue Crack Growth Curves using the Paris' Law

Science.gov (United States)

Sajith, S.; Krishna Murthy, K. S. R.; Robi, P. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate information regarding crack growth times and structural strength as a function of the crack size is mandatory in damage tolerance analysis. Various equivalent stress intensity factor (SIF) models are available for prediction of mixed mode fatigue life using the Paris' law. In the present investigation these models have been compared to assess their efficacy in prediction of the life close to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempts to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions.

Model Predictive Control for Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaijiang Yu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new model predictive control system for connected hybrid electric vehicles to improve fuel economy. The new features of this study are as follows. First, the battery charge and discharge profile and the driving velocity profile are simultaneously optimized. One is energy management for HEV for Pbatt; the other is for the energy consumption minimizing problem of acc control of two vehicles. Second, a system for connected hybrid electric vehicles has been developed considering varying drag coefficients and the road gradients. Third, the fuel model of a typical hybrid electric vehicle is developed using the maps of the engine efficiency characteristics. Fourth, simulations and analysis (under different parameters, i.e., road conditions, vehicle state of charge, etc. are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the method to achieve higher fuel efficiency. The model predictive control problem is solved using numerical computation method: continuation and generalized minimum residual method. Computer simulation results reveal improvements in fuel economy using the proposed control method.

Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Cooperation Interaction Profile of Flexible Road Train Based on Hybrid Automaton Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banjanovic-Mehmedovic Lejla

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of traffic information is important in many applications in relation to Intelligent Transport systems (ITS, since it reduces the uncertainty of future traffic states and improves traffic mobility. There is a lot of research done in the field of traffic information predictions such as speed, flow and travel time. The most important research was done in the domain of cooperative intelligent transport system (C-ITS. The goal of this paper is to introduce the novel cooperation behaviour profile prediction through the example of flexible Road Trains useful road cooperation parameter, which contributes to the improvement of traffic mobility in Intelligent Transportation Systems. This paper presents an approach towards the control and cooperation behaviour modelling of vehicles in the flexible Road Train based on hybrid automaton and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS prediction of cooperation profile of the flexible Road Train. Hybrid automaton takes into account complex dynamics of each vehicle as well as discrete cooperation approach. The ANFIS is a particular class of the ANN family with attractive estimation and learning potentials. In order to provide statistical analysis, RMSE (root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2 and Pearson coefficient (r, were utilized. The study results suggest that ANFIS would be an efficient soft computing methodology, which could offer precise predictions of cooperative interactions between vehicles in Road Train, which is useful for prediction mobility in Intelligent Transport systems.

A hybrid scheme for real-time prediction of bus trajectories

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fadaei, Masoud; Cats, O.; Bhaskar, Ashish

2016-01-01

The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model

NNLOPS accurate predictions for $W^+W^-$ production arXiv

CERN Document Server

Re, Emanuele; Zanderighi, Giulia

We present novel predictions for the production of $W^+W^-$ pairs in hadron collisions that are next-to-next-to-leading order accurate and consistently matched to a parton shower (NNLOPS). All diagrams that lead to the process $pp\\to e^- \\bar \

Towers of hybrid mesons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semay, Claude; Buisseret, Fabien; Silvestre-Brac, Bernard

2009-01-01

A hybrid meson is a quark-antiquark pair in which, contrary to ordinary mesons, the gluon field is in an excited state. In the framework of constituent models, the interaction potential is assumed to be the energy of an excited string. An approximate, but accurate, analytical solution of the Schroedinger equation with such a potential is presented. When applied to hybrid charmonia and bottomonia, towers of states are predicted in which the masses are a linear function of a harmonic oscillator band number for the quark-antiquark pair. Such a formula could be a reliable guide for the experimental detection of heavy hybrid mesons.

A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Benvenuto, Federico; Piana, Michele; Campi, Cristina; Massone, Anna Maria

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a novel method for flare forecasting, combining prediction accuracy with the ability to identify the most relevant predictive variables. This result is obtained by means of a two-step approach: first, a supervised regularization method for regression, namely, LASSO is applied, where a sparsity-enhancing penalty term allows the identification of the significance with which each data feature contributes to the prediction; then, an unsupervised fuzzy clustering technique for classification, namely, Fuzzy C-Means, is applied, where the regression outcome is partitioned through the minimization of a cost function and without focusing on the optimization of a specific skill score. This approach is therefore hybrid, since it combines supervised and unsupervised learning; realizes classification in an automatic, skill-score-independent way; and provides effective prediction performances even in the case of imbalanced data sets. Its prediction power is verified against NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data, using as a test set, data in the range between 1996 August and 2010 December and as training set, data in the range between 1988 December and 1996 June. To validate the method, we computed several skill scores typically utilized in flare prediction and compared the values provided by the hybrid approach with the ones provided by several standard (non-hybrid) machine learning methods. The results showed that the hybrid approach performs classification better than all other supervised methods and with an effectiveness comparable to the one of clustering methods; but, in addition, it provides a reliable ranking of the weights with which the data properties contribute to the forecast.

ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

2016-11-01

ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

2012-01-01

We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.

HybridGO-Loc: mining hybrid features on gene ontology for predicting subcellular localization of multi-location proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Shibiao; Mak, Man-Wai; Kung, Sun-Yuan

2014-01-01

Protein subcellular localization prediction, as an essential step to elucidate the functions in vivo of proteins and identify drugs targets, has been extensively studied in previous decades. Instead of only determining subcellular localization of single-label proteins, recent studies have focused on predicting both single- and multi-location proteins. Computational methods based on Gene Ontology (GO) have been demonstrated to be superior to methods based on other features. However, existing GO-based methods focus on the occurrences of GO terms and disregard their relationships. This paper proposes a multi-label subcellular-localization predictor, namely HybridGO-Loc, that leverages not only the GO term occurrences but also the inter-term relationships. This is achieved by hybridizing the GO frequencies of occurrences and the semantic similarity between GO terms. Given a protein, a set of GO terms are retrieved by searching against the gene ontology database, using the accession numbers of homologous proteins obtained via BLAST search as the keys. The frequency of GO occurrences and semantic similarity (SS) between GO terms are used to formulate frequency vectors and semantic similarity vectors, respectively, which are subsequently hybridized to construct fusion vectors. An adaptive-decision based multi-label support vector machine (SVM) classifier is proposed to classify the fusion vectors. Experimental results based on recent benchmark datasets and a new dataset containing novel proteins show that the proposed hybrid-feature predictor significantly outperforms predictors based on individual GO features as well as other state-of-the-art predictors. For readers' convenience, the HybridGO-Loc server, which is for predicting virus or plant proteins, is available online at http://bioinfo.eie.polyu.edu.hk/HybridGoServer/.

Accurate Identification of Cancerlectins through Hybrid Machine Learning Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jieru; Ju, Ying; Lu, Huijuan; Xuan, Ping; Zou, Quan

2016-01-01

Cancerlectins are cancer-related proteins that function as lectins. They have been identified through computational identification techniques, but these techniques have sometimes failed to identify proteins because of sequence diversity among the cancerlectins. Advanced machine learning identification methods, such as support vector machine and basic sequence features (n-gram), have also been used to identify cancerlectins. In this study, various protein fingerprint features and advanced classifiers, including ensemble learning techniques, were utilized to identify this group of proteins. We improved the prediction accuracy of the original feature extraction methods and classification algorithms by more than 10% on average. Our work provides a basis for the computational identification of cancerlectins and reveals the power of hybrid machine learning techniques in computational proteomics.

Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

2016-10-01

Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

Evaporator modeling - A hybrid approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun

2009-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid modeling approach is proposed to model two-phase flow evaporators. The main procedures for hybrid modeling includes: (1) Based on the energy and material balance, and thermodynamic principles to formulate the process fundamental governing equations; (2) Select input/output (I/O) variables responsible to the system performance which can be measured and controlled; (3) Represent those variables existing in the original equations but are not measurable as simple functions of selected I/Os or constants; (4) Obtaining a single equation which can correlate system inputs and outputs; and (5) Identify unknown parameters by linear or nonlinear least-squares methods. The method takes advantages of both physical and empirical modeling approaches and can accurately predict performance in wide operating range and in real-time, which can significantly reduce the computational burden and increase the prediction accuracy. The model is verified with the experimental data taken from a testing system. The testing results show that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating evaporator with the maximum error of ±8%. The developed models will have wide applications in operational optimization, performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis

Advanced state prediction of lithium-ion traction batteries in hybrid and battery electric vehicle applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jadidi, Yasser

2011-07-01

Automotive power trains with high energy efficiencies - particularly to be found in battery and hybrid electric vehicles - find increasing attention in the focus of reduction of exhaust emissions and increase of mileage. The underlying concept, the electrification of the power train, is subject to the traction battery and its battery management system since the capability of the battery permits and restricts electric propulsion. Consequently, the overall vehicle efficiency and in particular the operation strategy performance strongly depends on the quality of information about the battery. Besides battery technology, the key challenges are given by both the accurate prediction of battery behaviour and the electrochemical battery degradation that leads to power and capacity fade of the traction battery. This book provides the methodology for development of a battery state monitoring and prediction algorithm for application in a battery management system that accounts for the effects of electrochemical degradation. (orig.)

Towards cycle-accurate performance predictions for real-time embedded systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Triantafyllidis, K.; Bondarev, E.; With, de P.H.N.; Arabnia, H.R.; Deligiannidis, L.; Jandieri, G.

2013-01-01

In this paper we present a model-based performance analysis method for component-based real-time systems, featuring cycle-accurate predictions of latencies and enhanced system robustness. The method incorporates the following phases: (a) instruction-level profiling of SW components, (b) modeling the

Genomic Prediction of Single Crosses in the Early Stages of a Maize Hybrid Breeding Pipeline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dnyaneshwar C. Kadam

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Prediction of single-cross performance has been a major goal of plant breeders since the beginning of hybrid breeding. Recently, genomic prediction has shown to be a promising approach, but only limited studies have examined the accuracy of predicting single-cross performance. Moreover, no studies have examined the potential of predicting single crosses among random inbreds derived from a series of biparental families, which resembles the structure of germplasm comprising the initial stages of a hybrid maize breeding pipeline. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential of genomic prediction for identifying superior single crosses early in the hybrid breeding pipeline and optimize its application. To accomplish these objectives, we designed and analyzed a novel population of single crosses representing the Iowa Stiff Stalk synthetic/non-Stiff Stalk heterotic pattern commonly used in the development of North American commercial maize hybrids. The performance of single crosses was predicted using parental combining ability and covariance among single crosses. Prediction accuracies were estimated using cross-validation and ranged from 0.28 to 0.77 for grain yield, 0.53 to 0.91 for plant height, and 0.49 to 0.94 for staygreen, depending on the number of tested parents of the single cross and genomic prediction method used. The genomic estimated general and specific combining abilities showed an advantage over genomic covariances among single crosses when one or both parents of the single cross were untested. Overall, our results suggest that genomic prediction of single crosses in the early stages of a hybrid breeding pipeline holds great potential to redesign hybrid breeding and increase its efficiency.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Thermal conductivity prediction of nanoscale phononic crystal slabs using a hybrid lattice dynamics-continuum mechanics technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles M. Reinke

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Recent work has demonstrated that nanostructuring of a semiconductor material to form a phononic crystal (PnC can significantly reduce its thermal conductivity. In this paper, we present a classical method that combines atomic-level information with the application of Bloch theory at the continuum level for the prediction of the thermal conductivity of finite-thickness PnCs with unit cells sized in the micron scale. Lattice dynamics calculations are done at the bulk material level, and the plane-wave expansion method is implemented at the macrosale PnC unit cell level. The combination of the lattice dynamics-based and continuum mechanics-based dispersion information is then used in the Callaway-Holland model to calculate the thermal transport properties of the PnC. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach provides both accurate and efficient predictions of the thermal conductivity.

Finite-Control-Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for Islanded Hybrid Microgrids

OpenAIRE

Yi, Zhehan; Babqi, Abdulrahman J.; Wang, Yishen; Shi, Di; Etemadi, Amir H.; Wang, Zhiwei; Huang, Bibin

2018-01-01

Microgrids consisting of multiple distributed energy resources (DERs) provide a promising solution to integrate renewable energies, e.g., solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Hybrid AC/DC microgrids leverage the merits of both AC and DC power systems. In this paper, a control strategy for islanded multi-bus hybrid microgrids is proposed based on the Finite-Control-Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) technologies. The control loops are expedited by predicting the future states and determining t...

Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

KAUST Repository

Liu, Guozheng

2016-07-06

Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guozheng Liu

Full Text Available Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1 examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2 explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3 investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs, but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

KAUST Repository

Liu, Guozheng; Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Longin, C. Friedrich H.; Reif, Jochen C.; Mette, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guozheng; Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Longin, C. Friedrich H.; Reif, Jochen C.; Mette, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population. PMID:27383841

Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cornejo-Bueno

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

Accurate thermoelastic tensor and acoustic velocities of NaCl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marcondes, Michel L., E-mail: michel@if.usp.br [Physics Institute, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, 05508-090 (Brazil); Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Shukla, Gaurav, E-mail: shukla@physics.umn.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Silveira, Pedro da [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Wentzcovitch, Renata M., E-mail: wentz002@umn.edu [Chemical Engineering and Material Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States); Minnesota supercomputer Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 55455 (United States)

2015-12-15

Despite the importance of thermoelastic properties of minerals in geology and geophysics, their measurement at high pressures and temperatures are still challenging. Thus, ab initio calculations are an essential tool for predicting these properties at extreme conditions. Owing to the approximate description of the exchange-correlation energy, approximations used in calculations of vibrational effects, and numerical/methodological approximations, these methods produce systematic deviations. Hybrid schemes combining experimental data and theoretical results have emerged as a way to reconcile available information and offer more reliable predictions at experimentally inaccessible thermodynamics conditions. Here we introduce a method to improve the calculated thermoelastic tensor by using highly accurate thermal equation of state (EoS). The corrective scheme is general, applicable to crystalline solids with any symmetry, and can produce accurate results at conditions where experimental data may not exist. We apply it to rock-salt-type NaCl, a material whose structural properties have been challenging to describe accurately by standard ab initio methods and whose acoustic/seismic properties are important for the gas and oil industry.

Churn prediction on huge telecom data using hybrid firefly based classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ammar A.Q. Ahmed

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Churn prediction in telecom has become a major requirement due to the increase in the number of telecom providers. However due to the hugeness, sparsity and imbalanced nature of the data, churn prediction in telecom has always been a complex task. This paper presents a metaheuristic based churn prediction technique that performs churn prediction on huge telecom data. A hybridized form of Firefly algorithm is used as the classifier. It has been identified that the compute intensive component of the Firefly algorithm is the comparison block, where every firefly is compared with every other firefly to identify the one with the highest light intensity. This component is replaced by Simulated Annealing and the classification process is carried out. Experiments were conducted on the Orange dataset. It was observed that Firefly algorithm works best on churn data and the hybridized Firefly algorithm provides effective and faster results.

A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

Model Predictive Control of the Hybrid Ventilation for Livestock

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Zhuang; Stoustrup, Jakob; Trangbæk, Klaus

2006-01-01

In this paper, design and simulation results of Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for livestock hybrid ventilation systems and associated indoor climate through variable valve openings and exhaust fans are presented. The design is based on thermal comfort parameters for poultry in barns...

Driving-behavior-aware stochastic model predictive control for plug-in hybrid electric buses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Liang; You, Sixiong; Yang, Chao; Yan, Bingjie; Song, Jian; Chen, Zheng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The novel approximated global optimal energy management strategy has been proposed for hybrid powertrains. • Eight typical driving behaviors have been classified with K-means to deal with the multiplicative traffic conditions. • The stochastic driver models of different driving behaviors were established based on the Markov chains. • ECMS was used to modify the SMPC-based energy management strategy to improve its fuel economy. • The approximated global optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric buses has been verified and analyzed. - Abstract: Driving cycles of a city bus is statistically characterized by some repetitive features, which makes the predictive energy management strategy very desirable to obtain approximate optimal fuel economy of a plug-in hybrid electric bus. But dealing with the complicated traffic conditions and finding an approximated global optimal strategy which is applicable to the plug-in hybrid electric bus still remains a challenging technique. To solve this problem, a novel driving-behavior-aware modified stochastic model predictive control method is proposed for the plug-in hybrid electric bus. Firstly, the K-means is employed to classify driving behaviors, and the driver models based on Markov chains is obtained under different kinds of driving behaviors. While the obtained driver behaviors are regarded as stochastic disturbance inputs, the local minimum fuel consumption might be obtained with a traditional stochastic model predictive control at each step, taking tracking the reference battery state of charge trajectory into consideration in the finite predictive horizons. However, this technique is still accompanied by some working points with reduced/worsened fuel economy. Thus, the stochastic model predictive control is modified with the equivalent consumption minimization strategy to eliminate these undesirable working points. The results in real-world city bus routines show that the

Hybrid ATDL-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jakeman, A J; Taylor, J A

1985-01-01

An air quality model is developed to predict the distribution of concentrations of acid gas in an urban airshed. The model is hybrid in character, combining reliable features of a deterministic ATDL-based model with statistical distributional approaches. The gamma distribution was identified from a range of distributional models as the best model. The paper shows that the assumptions of a previous hybrid model may be relaxed and presents a methodology for characterizing the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Results are demonstrated for the 98-percentile predictions of 24-h average data over annual periods at six monitoring sites. This percentile relates to the World Health Organization goal for acid gas concentrations.

Prediction Errors of Molecular Machine Learning Models Lower than Hybrid DFT Error.

Science.gov (United States)

Faber, Felix A; Hutchison, Luke; Huang, Bing; Gilmer, Justin; Schoenholz, Samuel S; Dahl, George E; Vinyals, Oriol; Kearnes, Steven; Riley, Patrick F; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

2017-11-14

evidence that ML model predictions deviate from DFT (B3LYP) less than DFT (B3LYP) deviates from experiment for all properties. Furthermore, out-of-sample prediction errors with respect to hybrid DFT reference are on par with, or close to, chemical accuracy. The results suggest that ML models could be more accurate than hybrid DFT if explicitly electron correlated quantum (or experimental) data were available.

Accurate approximation method for prediction of class I MHC affinities for peptides of length 8, 10 and 11 using prediction tools trained on 9mers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

2008-01-01

Several accurate prediction systems have been developed for prediction of class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC):peptide binding. Most of these are trained on binding affinity data of primarily 9mer peptides. Here, we show how prediction methods trained on 9mer data can be used for accurate...

HAMDA: Hybrid Approach for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Niu, Ya-Wei; Wang, Guang-Hui; Yan, Gui-Ying

2017-12-01

For decades, enormous experimental researches have collectively indicated that microRNA (miRNA) could play indispensable roles in many critical biological processes and thus also the pathogenesis of human complex diseases. Whereas the resource and time cost required in traditional biology experiments are expensive, more and more attentions have been paid to the development of effective and feasible computational methods for predicting potential associations between disease and miRNA. In this study, we developed a computational model of Hybrid Approach for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (HAMDA), which involved the hybrid graph-based recommendation algorithm, to reveal novel miRNA-disease associations by integrating experimentally verified miRNA-disease associations, disease semantic similarity, miRNA functional similarity, and Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity into a recommendation algorithm. HAMDA took not only network structure and information propagation but also node attribution into consideration, resulting in a satisfactory prediction performance. Specifically, HAMDA obtained AUCs of 0.9035 and 0.8395 in the frameworks of global and local leave-one-out cross validation, respectively. Meanwhile, HAMDA also achieved good performance with AUC of 0.8965 ± 0.0012 in 5-fold cross validation. Additionally, we conducted case studies about three important human cancers for performance evaluation of HAMDA. As a result, 90% (Lymphoma), 86% (Prostate Cancer) and 92% (Kidney Cancer) of top 50 predicted miRNAs were confirmed by recent experiment literature, which showed the reliable prediction ability of HAMDA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

Science.gov (United States)

Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

2015-09-01

There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction

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Chengdong Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The energy-consuming pattern in this study represents the periodicity property of building energy consumption and can be extracted from the observed historical energy consumption data. The residual data generated by removing the energy-consuming pattern from the original data are utilized to train the modified DBN model. The training of the modified DBN includes two steps, the first one of which adopts the contrastive divergence (CD algorithm to optimize the hidden parameters in a pre-train way, while the second one determines the output weighting vector by the least squares method. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two kinds of building energy consumption data sets that have different energy-consuming patterns (daily-periodicity and weekly-periodicity. In order to examine the advantages of the proposed model, four popular artificial intelligence methods—the backward propagation neural network (BPNN, the generalized radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN, the extreme learning machine (ELM, and the support vector regressor (SVR are chosen as the comparative approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed DBN based hybrid model has the best performance compared with the comparative techniques. Another thing to be mentioned is that all the predictors constructed by utilizing the energy-consuming patterns perform better than those designed only by the original data. This verifies the usefulness of the incorporation of the energy-consuming patterns. The proposed approach can also be extended and applied to some other similar prediction problems that have periodicity patterns, e.g., the traffic flow forecasting and the electricity consumption

Weighted hybrid technique for recommender system

Science.gov (United States)

Suriati, S.; Dwiastuti, Meisyarah; Tulus, T.

2017-12-01

Recommender system becomes very popular and has important role in an information system or webpages nowadays. A recommender system tries to make a prediction of which item a user may like based on his activity on the system. There are some familiar techniques to build a recommender system, such as content-based filtering and collaborative filtering. Content-based filtering does not involve opinions from human to make the prediction, while collaborative filtering does, so collaborative filtering can predict more accurately. However, collaborative filtering cannot give prediction to items which have never been rated by any user. In order to cover the drawbacks of each approach with the advantages of other approach, both approaches can be combined with an approach known as hybrid technique. Hybrid technique used in this work is weighted technique in which the prediction score is combination linear of scores gained by techniques that are combined.The purpose of this work is to show how an approach of weighted hybrid technique combining content-based filtering and item-based collaborative filtering can work in a movie recommender system and to show the performance comparison when both approachare combined and when each approach works alone. There are three experiments done in this work, combining both techniques with different parameters. The result shows that the weighted hybrid technique that is done in this work does not really boost the performance up, but it helps to give prediction score for unrated movies that are impossible to be recommended by only using collaborative filtering.

PredictSNP: robust and accurate consensus classifier for prediction of disease-related mutations.

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Jaroslav Bendl

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp.

Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

2013-11-01

Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianzhou Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Switched Reluctance Motor in a Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle

OpenAIRE

Siavash Sadeghi; Mojtaba Mirsalim; Arash Hassanpour Isfahani

2010-01-01

Dynamic behavior analysis of electric motors is required in order to accuratelyevaluate the performance, energy consumption and pollution level of hybrid electricvehicles. Simulation tools for hybrid electric vehicles are divided into steady state anddynamic models. Tools with steady-state models are useful for system-level analysiswhereas tools that utilize dynamic models give in-depth information about the behavior ofsublevel components. For the accurate prediction of hybrid electric vehicl...

A hybrid genetic algorithm and linear regression for prediction of NOx emission in power generation plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunyamin, Muhammad Afif; Yap, Keem Siah; Aziz, Nur Liyana Afiqah Abdul; Tiong, Sheih Kiong; Wong, Shen Yuong; Kamal, Md Fauzan

2013-01-01

This paper presents a new approach of gas emission estimation in power generation plant using a hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear Regression (LR) (denoted as GA-LR). The LR is one of the approaches that model the relationship between an output dependant variable, y, with one or more explanatory variables or inputs which denoted as x. It is able to estimate unknown model parameters from inputs data. On the other hand, GA is used to search for the optimal solution until specific criteria is met causing termination. These results include providing good solutions as compared to one optimal solution for complex problems. Thus, GA is widely used as feature selection. By combining the LR and GA (GA-LR), this new technique is able to select the most important input features as well as giving more accurate prediction by minimizing the prediction errors. This new technique is able to produce more consistent of gas emission estimation, which may help in reducing population to the environment. In this paper, the study's interest is focused on nitrous oxides (NOx) prediction. The results of the experiment are encouraging.

Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

2009-01-01

A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and fault...... can be used as a test signal for sanity check at the commissioning or for detection of faults hidden by regulatory actions of the controller. The method is tested on the two tank benchmark example. ©2009 IEEE....

An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-07-07

Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Deng

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

A Lithium-Ion Battery Simulator Based on a Diffusion and Switching Overpotential Hybrid Model for Dynamic Discharging Behavior and Runtime Predictions

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Lan-Rong Dung

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A new battery simulator based on a hybrid model is proposed in this paper for dynamic discharging behavior and runtime predictions in existing electronic simulation environments, e.g., PSIM, so it can help power circuit designers to develop and optimize their battery-powered electronic systems. The hybrid battery model combines a diffusion model and a switching overpotential model, which automatically switches overpotential resistance mode or overpotential voltage mode to accurately describe the voltage difference between battery electro-motive force (EMF and terminal voltage. Therefore, this simulator can simply run in an electronic simulation software with less computational efforts and estimate battery performances by further considering nonlinear capacity effects. A linear extrapolation technique is adopted for extracting model parameters from constant current discharging tests, so the EMF hysteresis problem is avoided. For model validation, experiments and simulations in MATLAB and PSIM environments are conducted with six different profiles, including constant loads, an interrupted load, increasing and decreasing loads and a varying load. The results confirm the usefulness and accuracy of the proposed simulator. The behavior and runtime prediction errors can be as low as 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively.

Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

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Gregory A Ross

Full Text Available Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity.

Hybrid methods for airframe noise numerical prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Terracol, M.; Manoha, E.; Herrero, C.; Labourasse, E.; Redonnet, S. [ONERA, Department of CFD and Aeroacoustics, BP 72, Chatillon (France); Sagaut, P. [Laboratoire de Modelisation en Mecanique - UPMC/CNRS, Paris (France)

2005-07-01

This paper describes some significant steps made towards the numerical simulation of the noise radiated by the high-lift devices of a plane. Since the full numerical simulation of such configuration is still out of reach for present supercomputers, some hybrid strategies have been developed to reduce the overall cost of such simulations. The proposed strategy relies on the coupling of an unsteady nearfield CFD with an acoustic propagation solver based on the resolution of the Euler equations for midfield propagation in an inhomogeneous field, and the use of an integral solver for farfield acoustic predictions. In the first part of this paper, this CFD/CAA coupling strategy is presented. In particular, the numerical method used in the propagation solver is detailed, and two applications of this coupling method to the numerical prediction of the aerodynamic noise of an airfoil are presented. Then, a hybrid RANS/LES method is proposed in order to perform some unsteady simulations of complex noise sources. This method allows for significant reduction of the cost of such a simulation by considerably reducing the extent of the LES zone. This method is described and some results of the numerical simulation of the three-dimensional unsteady flow in the slat cove of a high-lift profile are presented. While these results remain very difficult to validate with experiments on similar configurations, they represent up to now the first 3D computations of this kind of flow. (orig.)

Prediction of Currency Volume Issued in Taiwan Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Regression Approach

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Yuehjen E. Shao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Because the volume of currency issued by a country always affects its interest rate, price index, income levels, and many other important macroeconomic variables, the prediction of currency volume issued has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In contrast to the typical single-stage forecast model, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting approach to predict the volume of currency issued in Taiwan. The proposed hybrid models consist of artificial neural network (ANN and multiple regression (MR components. The MR component of the hybrid models is established for a selection of fewer explanatory variables, wherein the selected variables are of higher importance. The ANN component is then designed to generate forecasts based on those important explanatory variables. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze a real dataset of Taiwan's currency from 1996 to 2011 and twenty associated explanatory variables. The prediction results reveal that the proposed hybrid scheme exhibits superior forecasting performance for predicting the volume of currency issued in Taiwan.

A load predictive energy management system for supercapacitor-battery hybrid energy storage system in solar application using the Support Vector Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chia, Yen Yee; Lee, Lam Hong; Shafiabady, Niusha; Isa, Dino

2015-01-01

energy management system with conventional sequential programming control (if-else condition). An optimized load prediction classification model is investigated and implemented. This C-Support Vector Classification yields classification accuracy of 100% using 17 support vectors in 0.004866 s of training time. The Polynomial kernel is the optimum kernel in our experiments where the C and g values are 2 and 0.25 respectively. However, for the load profile regression model which was implemented in the K-step ahead of load prediction, the radial basis function (RBF) kernel was chosen due to the highest squared correlation coefficient and the lowest mean squared error. Results obtained shows that the proposed SVM load predictive energy management system accurately identifies and predicts the load demand. This has been justified by the supercapacitor charging and leading the peak current demand by 200 ms for different load profiles with different optimized regression models. This methodology optimizes the cost of the system by reducing the amount of power electronics within the hybrid energy storage system, and also prolongs the batteries’ lifespan as previously mentioned

Prediction of Chl-a concentrations in an eutrophic lake using ANN models with hybrid inputs

Science.gov (United States)

Aksoy, A.; Yuzugullu, O.

2017-12-01

Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in water bodies exhibit both spatial and temporal variations. As a result, frequent sampling is required with higher number of samples. This motivates the use of remote sensing as a monitoring tool. Yet, prediction performances of models that convert radiance values into Chl-a concentrations can be poor in shallow lakes. In this study, Chl-a concentrations in Lake Eymir, a shallow eutrophic lake in Ankara (Turkey), are determined using artificial neural network (ANN) models that use hybrid inputs composed of water quality and meteorological data as well as remotely sensed radiance values to improve prediction performance. Following a screening based on multi-collinearity and principal component analysis (PCA), dissolved-oxygen concentration (DO), pH, turbidity, and humidity were selected among several parameters as the constituents of the hybrid input dataset. Radiance values were obtained from QuickBird-2 satellite. Conversion of the hybrid input into Chl-a concentrations were studied for two different periods in the lake. ANN models were successful in predicting Chl-a concentrations. Yet, prediction performance declined for low Chl-a concentrations in the lake. In general, models with hybrid inputs were superior over the ones that solely used remotely sensed data.

Differential contribution of visual and auditory information to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of a visual stimulus.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Seoung Hoon; Kim, Seonjin; Kwon, MinHyuk; Christou, Evangelos A

2016-03-01

Vision and auditory information are critical for perception and to enhance the ability of an individual to respond accurately to a stimulus. However, it is unknown whether visual and auditory information contribute differentially to identify the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus based on visual and auditory information. In this study, we recruited 9 expert table-tennis players and used table-tennis service as our experimental model. Participants watched recorded services with different levels of visual and auditory information. The goal was to anticipate the direction of the service (left or right) and the rotational motion of service (topspin, sidespin, or cut). We recorded their responses and quantified the following outcomes: (i) directional accuracy and (ii) rotational motion accuracy. The response accuracy was the accurate predictions relative to the total number of trials. The ability of the participants to predict the direction of the service accurately increased with additional visual information but not with auditory information. In contrast, the ability of the participants to predict the rotational motion of the service accurately increased with the addition of auditory information to visual information but not with additional visual information alone. In conclusion, this finding demonstrates that visual information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction of the stimulus, whereas additional auditory information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the rotational motion of stimulus.

A hybrid model for dissolved oxygen prediction in aquaculture based on multi-scale features

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Chen Li

2018-03-01

Full Text Available To increase prediction accuracy of dissolved oxygen (DO in aquaculture, a hybrid model based on multi-scale features using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD is proposed. Firstly, original DO datasets are decomposed by EEMD and we get several components. Secondly, these components are used to reconstruct four terms including high frequency term, intermediate frequency term, low frequency term and trend term. Thirdly, according to the characteristics of high and intermediate frequency terms, which fluctuate violently, the least squares support vector machine (LSSVR is used to predict the two terms. The fluctuation of low frequency term is gentle and periodic, so it can be modeled by BP neural network with an optimal mind evolutionary computation (MEC-BP. Then, the trend term is predicted using grey model (GM because it is nearly linear. Finally, the prediction values of DO datasets are calculated by the sum of the forecasting values of all terms. The experimental results demonstrate that our hybrid model outperforms EEMD-ELM (extreme learning machine based on EEMD, EEMD-BP and MEC-BP models based on the mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, mean square error (MSE and root mean square error (RMSE. Our hybrid model is proven to be an effective approach to predict aquaculture DO.

Hybrid ANN–PLS approach to scroll compressor thermodynamic performance prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian, Z.; Gu, B.; Yang, L.; Lu, Y.

2015-01-01

In this paper, a scroll compressor thermodynamic performance prediction was carried out by applying a hybrid ANN–PLS model. Firstly, an experimental platform with second-refrigeration calorimeter was set up and steady-state scroll compressor data sets were collected from experiments. Then totally 148 data sets were introduced to train and verify the validity of the ANN–PLS model for predicting the scroll compressor parameters such as volumetric efficiency, refrigerant mass flow rate, discharge temperature and power consumption. The ANN–PLS model was determined with 5 hidden neurons and 7 latent variables through the training process. Ultimately, the ANN–PLS model showed better performance than the ANN model and the PLS model working separately. ANN–PLS predictions agree well with the experimental values with mean relative errors (MREs) in the range of 0.34–1.96%, correlation coefficients (R 2 ) in the range of 0.9703–0.9999 and very low root mean square errors (RMSEs). - Highlights: • Hybrid ANN–PLS is utilized to predict the thermodynamic performance of scroll compressor. • ANN–PLS model is determined with 5 hidden neurons and 7 latent variables. • ANN–PLS model demonstrates better performance than ANN and PLS working separately. • The values of MRE and RMSE are in the range of 0.34–1.96% and 0.9703–0.9999, respectively

Comparison of new hybrid FEEMD-MLP, FEEMD-ANFIS, Wavelet Packet-MLP and Wavelet Packet-ANFIS for wind speed predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Four algorithms [EMD/FEEMD/WD/WPD] are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Two new hybrid forecasting algorithms [FEEMD-MLP/ANFIS] are presented. • The contributions of the FEEMD/WPD algorithms are both significant. • The MLP has better forecasting performance than the ANFIS in these cases. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. Compared to the single algorithms, the hybrid ones always have better performance in the wind speed predictions. In this paper, three most important decomposing algorithms [Wavelet Decomposition – WD/Wavelet Packet Decomposition – WPD/Empirical Mode Decomposition – EMD] and a latest decomposing algorithm [Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition – FEEMD] are all adopted to realize the wind speed high-precision predictions with two representative networks [MLP Neural Network/ANFIS Neural Network]. Based on the hybrid forecasting framework, two new wind speed forecasting methods [FEEMD-MLP and FEEMD-ANFIS] are proposed. Additionally, a series of performance comparison is provided, which includes EMD-MLP, FEEMD-MLP, EDM-ANFIS, FEEMD-ANFIS, WD-MLP, WD-ANFIS, WPD-MLP and WPD-ANFIS. The aim of the study is to investigate the decomposing and forecasting performance of the different hybrid models. Two experimental results show that: (1) Due to the inclusion of the decomposing algorithms, the hybrid ANN algorithms have better performance than their corresponding single ANN algorithms; (2) the proposed new FEEMD-MLP hybrid model has the best performance in the three-step predictions while the WPD-MLP hybrid model has the best performance in the one-step predictions; (3) among the decomposing algorithms, the FEEMD and WPD have better performance than the EMD and WD, respectively; (4) in the forecasting neural networks, the MLP has better performance

The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaomin Xu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR. According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO, which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability.

Predictive control strategies for energy saving of hybrid electric vehicles based on traffic light information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaijiang YU

2015-10-01

Full Text Available As the conventional control method for hybrid electric vehicle doesn’t consider the effect of known traffic light information on the vehicle energy management, this paper proposes a model predictive control intelligent optimization strategies based on traffic light information for hybrid electric vehicles. By building the simplified model of the hybrid electric vehicle and adopting the continuation/generalized minimum residual method, the model prediction problem is solved. The simulation is conducted by using MATLAB/Simulink platform. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model of the traffic light information, and that the proposed model predictive control method can improve fuel economy and the real-time control performance significantly. The research conclusions show that the proposed control strategy can achieve optimal control of the vehicle trajectory, significantly improving fuel economy of the vehicle, and meet the system requirements for the real-time optimal control.

Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

2017-01-01

Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

A Novel Fibrosis Index Comprising a Non-Cholesterol Sterol Accurately Predicts HCV-Related Liver Cirrhosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ydreborg, Magdalena; Lisovskaja, Vera; Lagging, Martin

2014-01-01

of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive...

LocARNA-P: Accurate boundary prediction and improved detection of structural RNAs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Will, Sebastian; Joshi, Tejal; Hofacker, Ivo L.

2012-01-01

Current genomic screens for noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) predict a large number of genomic regions containing potential structural ncRNAs. The analysis of these data requires highly accurate prediction of ncRNA boundaries and discrimination of promising candidate ncRNAs from weak predictions. Existing...... methods struggle with these goals because they rely on sequence-based multiple sequence alignments, which regularly misalign RNA structure and therefore do not support identification of structural similarities. To overcome this limitation, we compute columnwise and global reliabilities of alignments based...... on sequence and structure similarity; we refer to these structure-based alignment reliabilities as STARs. The columnwise STARs of alignments, or STAR profiles, provide a versatile tool for the manual and automatic analysis of ncRNAs. In particular, we improve the boundary prediction of the widely used nc...

Do Dual-Route Models Accurately Predict Reading and Spelling Performance in Individuals with Acquired Alexia and Agraphia?

OpenAIRE

Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Henry, Maya L.; Teague, Sommer L.; Carnahan, Susan D.; Beeson, Pélagie M.

2007-01-01

Coltheart and colleagues (Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001; Castles, Bates, & Coltheart, 2006) have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult...

Towards accurate performance prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine operating at different tip speed ratios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rezaeiha, A.; Kalkman, I.; Blocken, B.J.E.

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of the performance of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) using CFD simulation requires the employment of a sufficiently fine azimuthal increment (dθ) combined with a mesh size at which essential flow characteristics can be accurately resolved. Furthermore, the domain size needs

Low speed hybrid generalized predictive control of a gasoline-propelled car.

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, M; de Madrid, A P; Mañoso, C; Milanés, V

2015-07-01

Low-speed driving in traffic jams causes significant pollution and wasted time for commuters. Additionally, from the passengers׳ standpoint, this is an uncomfortable, stressful and tedious scene that is suitable to be automated. The highly nonlinear dynamics of car engines at low-speed turn its automation in a complex problem that still remains as unsolved. Considering the hybrid nature of the vehicle longitudinal control at low-speed, constantly switching between throttle and brake pedal actions, hybrid control is a good candidate to solve this problem. This work presents the analytical formulation of a hybrid predictive controller for automated low-speed driving. It takes advantage of valuable characteristics supplied by predictive control strategies both for compensating un-modeled dynamics and for keeping passengers security and comfort analytically by means of the treatment of constraints. The proposed controller was implemented in a gas-propelled vehicle to experimentally validate the adopted solution. To this end, different scenarios were analyzed varying road layouts and vehicle speeds within a private test track. The production vehicle is a commercial Citroën C3 Pluriel which has been modified to automatically act over its throttle and brake pedals. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

2016-06-01

The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

Bayesian calibration of power plant models for accurate performance prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boksteen, Sowande Z.; Buijtenen, Jos P. van; Pecnik, Rene; Vecht, Dick van der

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Bayesian calibration is applied to power plant performance prediction. • Measurements from a plant in operation are used for model calibration. • A gas turbine performance model and steam cycle model are calibrated. • An integrated plant model is derived. • Part load efficiency is accurately predicted as a function of ambient conditions. - Abstract: Gas turbine combined cycles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the balancing of supply and demand in future energy markets. Thermodynamic modeling of these energy systems is frequently applied to assist in decision making processes related to the management of plant operation and maintenance. In most cases, model inputs, parameters and outputs are treated as deterministic quantities and plant operators make decisions with limited or no regard of uncertainties. As the steady integration of wind and solar energy into the energy market induces extra uncertainties, part load operation and reliability are becoming increasingly important. In the current study, methods are proposed to not only quantify various types of uncertainties in measurements and plant model parameters using measured data, but to also assess their effect on various aspects of performance prediction. The authors aim to account for model parameter and measurement uncertainty, and for systematic discrepancy of models with respect to reality. For this purpose, the Bayesian calibration framework of Kennedy and O’Hagan is used, which is especially suitable for high-dimensional industrial problems. The article derives a calibrated model of the plant efficiency as a function of ambient conditions and operational parameters, which is also accurate in part load. The article shows that complete statistical modeling of power plants not only enhances process models, but can also increases confidence in operational decisions

Accurate Holdup Calculations with Predictive Modeling & Data Integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Cacuci, Dan [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2017-04-03

In facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) it is important to account accurately for the fissile material that enters and leaves the plant. Although there are many stages and processes through which materials must be traced and measured, the focus of this project is material that is “held-up” in equipment, pipes, and ducts during normal operation and that can accumulate over time into significant quantities. Accurately estimating the holdup is essential for proper SNM accounting (vis-à-vis nuclear non-proliferation), criticality and radiation safety, waste management, and efficient plant operation. Usually it is not possible to directly measure the holdup quantity and location, so these must be inferred from measured radiation fields, primarily gamma and less frequently neutrons. Current methods to quantify holdup, i.e. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH), primarily rely on simple source configurations and crude radiation transport models aided by ad hoc correction factors. This project seeks an alternate method of performing measurement-based holdup calculations using a predictive model that employs state-of-the-art radiation transport codes capable of accurately simulating such situations. Inverse and data assimilation methods use the forward transport model to search for a source configuration that best matches the measured data and simultaneously provide an estimate of the level of confidence in the correctness of such configuration. In this work the holdup problem is re-interpreted as an inverse problem that is under-determined, hence may permit multiple solutions. A probabilistic approach is applied to solving the resulting inverse problem. This approach rates possible solutions according to their plausibility given the measurements and initial information. This is accomplished through the use of Bayes’ Theorem that resolves the issue of multiple solutions by giving an estimate of the probability of observing each possible solution. To use

Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

Science.gov (United States)

Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

2017-04-01

Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

Accurate prediction of the enthalpies of formation for xanthophylls.

Science.gov (United States)

Lii, Jenn-Huei; Liao, Fu-Xing; Hu, Ching-Han

2011-11-30

This study investigates the applications of computational approaches in the prediction of enthalpies of formation (ΔH(f)) for C-, H-, and O-containing compounds. Molecular mechanics (MM4) molecular mechanics method, density functional theory (DFT) combined with the atomic equivalent (AE) and group equivalent (GE) schemes, and DFT-based correlation corrected atomization (CCAZ) were used. We emphasized on the application to xanthophylls, C-, H-, and O-containing carotenoids which consist of ∼ 100 atoms and extended π-delocaization systems. Within the training set, MM4 predictions are more accurate than those obtained using AE and GE; however a systematic underestimation was observed in the extended systems. ΔH(f) for the training set molecules predicted by CCAZ combined with DFT are in very good agreement with the G3 results. The average absolute deviations (AADs) of CCAZ combined with B3LYP and MPWB1K are 0.38 and 0.53 kcal/mol compared with the G3 data, and are 0.74 and 0.69 kcal/mol compared with the available experimental data, respectively. Consistency of the CCAZ approach for the selected xanthophylls is revealed by the AAD of 2.68 kcal/mol between B3LYP-CCAZ and MPWB1K-CCAZ. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

2018-06-01

The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-Bi Fu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding.

Searching for an Accurate Marker-Based Prediction of an Individual Quantitative Trait in Molecular Plant Breeding

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Yong-Bi; Yang, Mo-Hua; Zeng, Fangqin; Biligetu, Bill

2017-01-01

Molecular plant breeding with the aid of molecular markers has played an important role in modern plant breeding over the last two decades. Many marker-based predictions for quantitative traits have been made to enhance parental selection, but the trait prediction accuracy remains generally low, even with the aid of dense, genome-wide SNP markers. To search for more accurate trait-specific prediction with informative SNP markers, we conducted a literature review on the prediction issues in molecular plant breeding and on the applicability of an RNA-Seq technique for developing function-associated specific trait (FAST) SNP markers. To understand whether and how FAST SNP markers could enhance trait prediction, we also performed a theoretical reasoning on the effectiveness of these markers in a trait-specific prediction, and verified the reasoning through computer simulation. To the end, the search yielded an alternative to regular genomic selection with FAST SNP markers that could be explored to achieve more accurate trait-specific prediction. Continuous search for better alternatives is encouraged to enhance marker-based predictions for an individual quantitative trait in molecular plant breeding. PMID:28729875

XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

2013-12-23

Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

Prediction of the neutrons subcritical multiplication using the diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa da Silva, Adilson; Carvalho da Silva, Fernando [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-914, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Senra Martinez, Aquilino, E-mail: aquilino@lmp.ufrj.br [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-914, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

2011-07-15

Highlights: > We proposed a new neutron diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron source. > A coarse mesh finite difference method for the adjoint flux and reactivity calculation was developed. > 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition is used. - Abstract: We used the neutron diffusion hybrid equation, in cartesian geometry with external neutron sources to predict the subcritical multiplication of neutrons in a pressurized water reactor, using a 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition. A Coarse Mesh Finite Difference Method was developed for the adjoint flux calculation and to obtain the reactivity values of the reactor. The results obtained were compared with benchmark values in order to validate the methodology presented in this paper.

Prediction of the neutrons subcritical multiplication using the diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa da Silva, Adilson; Carvalho da Silva, Fernando; Senra Martinez, Aquilino

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We proposed a new neutron diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron source. → A coarse mesh finite difference method for the adjoint flux and reactivity calculation was developed. → 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition is used. - Abstract: We used the neutron diffusion hybrid equation, in cartesian geometry with external neutron sources to predict the subcritical multiplication of neutrons in a pressurized water reactor, using a 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition. A Coarse Mesh Finite Difference Method was developed for the adjoint flux calculation and to obtain the reactivity values of the reactor. The results obtained were compared with benchmark values in order to validate the methodology presented in this paper.

Interior Noise Prediction of the Automobile Based on Hybrid FE-SEA Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Chen

2011-01-01

created using hybrid FE-SEA method. The modal density was calculated using analytical method and finite element method; the damping loss factors of the structural and acoustic cavity subsystems were also calculated with analytical method; the coupling loss factors between structure and structure, structure and acoustic cavity were both calculated. Four different kinds of excitations including road excitations, engine mount excitations, sound radiation excitations of the engine, and wind excitations are exerted on the body of automobile when the automobile is running on the road. All the excitations were calculated using virtual prototype technology, computational fluid dynamics (CFD, and experiments realized in the design and development stage. The interior noise of the automobile was predicted and verified at speed of 120 km/h. The predicted and tested overall SPLs of the interior noise were 73.79 and 74.44 dB(A respectively. The comparison results also show that the prediction precision is satisfied, and the effectiveness and reliability of the hybrid FE-SEA model of the automobile is verified.

A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

2014-01-01

Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of ‘denoising, decomposition and ensemble’. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models. PMID:25111782

Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Magnuson, Brian

A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The

On ray stochasticity during lower hybrid current drive in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bizarro, J.P.; Moreau, D.

1992-08-01

A comprehensive and detailed analysis is presented on the importance of toroidally induced ray stochasticity for the modelling of lower hybrid current drive and for the dynamics of the launched power spectrum. A combined ray tracing and Fokker-Planck code is used and the injected lower hybrid power distribution in poloidal angle and in parallel wave index is accurately represented by taking into account the poloidal extent of the antenna ad by efficiently covering the full range of its radiated spectrum. The importance of the balance between the wave damping and the exponential divergence of nearby ray trajectories in determining the shape of the predicted lower hybrid power deposition profiles is emphasized. When a sufficiently large number of rays is used to densely cover the region of the launched power spectrum which is affected by stochastic effects, code predictions are shown to be stable with respect to small changes in initial conditions and plasma parameters and to be consistent with experimental data

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Baurle, R. A.

2015-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

Microbiome Data Accurately Predicts the Postmortem Interval Using Random Forest Regression Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aeriel Belk

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Death investigations often include an effort to establish the postmortem interval (PMI in cases in which the time of death is uncertain. The postmortem interval can lead to the identification of the deceased and the validation of witness statements and suspect alibis. Recent research has demonstrated that microbes provide an accurate clock that starts at death and relies on ecological change in the microbial communities that normally inhabit a body and its surrounding environment. Here, we explore how to build the most robust Random Forest regression models for prediction of PMI by testing models built on different sample types (gravesoil, skin of the torso, skin of the head, gene markers (16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA, 18S rRNA, internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS, and taxonomic levels (sequence variants, species, genus, etc.. We also tested whether particular suites of indicator microbes were informative across different datasets. Generally, results indicate that the most accurate models for predicting PMI were built using gravesoil and skin data using the 16S rRNA genetic marker at the taxonomic level of phyla. Additionally, several phyla consistently contributed highly to model accuracy and may be candidate indicators of PMI.

A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi; Sarvar, Rahim; Moud, Hashem Izadi; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

2013-01-01

This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models. -- Highlights: ► A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the solar global radiation. ► The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. ► Several climatological and meteorological parameters are included in the analysis. ► The GP/SA models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation.

Towards Accurate Prediction of Unbalance Response, Oil Whirl and Oil Whip of Flexible Rotors Supported by Hydrodynamic Bearings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rob Eling

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Journal bearings are used to support rotors in a wide range of applications. In order to ensure reliable operation, accurate analyses of these rotor-bearing systems are crucial. Coupled analysis of the rotor and the journal bearing is essential in the case that the rotor is flexible. The accuracy of prediction of the model at hand depends on its comprehensiveness. In this study, we construct three bearing models of increasing modeling comprehensiveness and use these to predict the response of two different rotor-bearing systems. The main goal is to evaluate the correlation with measurement data as a function of modeling comprehensiveness: 1D versus 2D pressure prediction, distributed versus lumped thermal model, Newtonian versus non-Newtonian fluid description and non-mass-conservative versus mass-conservative cavitation description. We conclude that all three models predict the existence of critical speeds and whirl for both rotor-bearing systems. However, the two more comprehensive models in general show better correlation with measurement data in terms of frequency and amplitude. Furthermore, we conclude that a thermal network model comprising temperature predictions of the bearing surroundings is essential to obtain accurate predictions. The results of this study aid in developing accurate and computationally-efficient models of flexible rotors supported by plain journal bearings.

A study on the predictability of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia response to treatment using a hybrid oncosimulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounoglou, Eleftherios; Kolokotroni, Eleni; Stanulla, Martin; Stamatakos, Georgios S

2018-02-06

Efficient use of Virtual Physiological Human (VPH)-type models for personalized treatment response prediction purposes requires a precise model parameterization. In the case where the available personalized data are not sufficient to fully determine the parameter values, an appropriate prediction task may be followed. This study, a hybrid combination of computational optimization and machine learning methods with an already developed mechanistic model called the acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) Oncosimulator which simulates ALL progression and treatment response is presented. These methods are used in order for the parameters of the model to be estimated for retrospective cases and to be predicted for prospective ones. The parameter value prediction is based on a regression model trained on retrospective cases. The proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system has been evaluated when predicting the pre-phase treatment outcome in ALL. This has been correctly achieved for a significant percentage of patient cases tested (approx. 70% of patients). Moreover, the system is capable of denying the classification of cases for which the results are not trustworthy enough. In that case, potentially misleading predictions for a number of patients are avoided, while the classification accuracy for the remaining patient cases further increases. The results obtained are particularly encouraging regarding the soundness of the proposed methodologies and their relevance to the process of achieving clinical applicability of the proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system and VPH models in general.

A hybrid method of prediction of the void fraction during depressurization of diabatic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inayatullah, G.; Nicoll, W.B.; Hancox, W.T.

1977-01-01

The variation in vapour volumetric fraction during transient pressure, flow and power is of considerable importance in water-cooled nuclear power-reactor safety analysis. The commonly adopted procedure to predict the transient void is to solve the conservation equations using finite differences. This present method is intermediate between numerical and analytic, hence 'hybrid'. Space and time are divided into discrete intervals. Their size, however, is dictated by the imposed heat flux and pressure variations, and not by truncation error, stability or convergence, because within an interval, the solutions applied are analytic. The relatively simple hybrid method presented here can predict the void distribution in a variety of transient, diabatic, two-phase flows with simplicity, accuracy and speed. (Auth.)

H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahman Ali

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body’s resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1 restricted one type of diabetes; (2 lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3 limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4 lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient’s data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies.

H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Rahman; Hussain, Jamil; Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Hussain, Maqbool; Lee, Sungyoung

2015-07-03

Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body's resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1) restricted one type of diabetes; (2) lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3) limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4) lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient's data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM) that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST) based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies.

Improved hybrid optimization algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

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Zhou, Changjun; Hou, Caixia; Wei, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Qiang

2014-07-01

A new improved hybrid optimization algorithm - PGATS algorithm, which is based on toy off-lattice model, is presented for dealing with three-dimensional protein structure prediction problems. The algorithm combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and tabu search (TS) algorithms. Otherwise, we also take some different improved strategies. The factor of stochastic disturbance is joined in the particle swarm optimization to improve the search ability; the operations of crossover and mutation that are in the genetic algorithm are changed to a kind of random liner method; at last tabu search algorithm is improved by appending a mutation operator. Through the combination of a variety of strategies and algorithms, the protein structure prediction (PSP) in a 3D off-lattice model is achieved. The PSP problem is an NP-hard problem, but the problem can be attributed to a global optimization problem of multi-extremum and multi-parameters. This is the theoretical principle of the hybrid optimization algorithm that is proposed in this paper. The algorithm combines local search and global search, which overcomes the shortcoming of a single algorithm, giving full play to the advantage of each algorithm. In the current universal standard sequences, Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences are certified. Experiments show that the proposed new method outperforms single algorithms on the accuracy of calculating the protein sequence energy value, which is proved to be an effective way to predict the structure of proteins.

Accurate wavelength prediction of photonic crystal resonant reflection and applications in refractive index measurement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermannsson, Pétur Gordon; Vannahme, Christoph; Smith, Cameron L. C.

2014-01-01

and superstrate materials. The importance of accounting for material dispersion in order to obtain accurate simulation results is highlighted, and a method for doing so using an iterative approach is demonstrated. Furthermore, an application for the model is demonstrated, in which the material dispersion......In the past decade, photonic crystal resonant reflectors have been increasingly used as the basis for label-free biochemical assays in lab-on-a-chip applications. In both designing and interpreting experimental results, an accurate model describing the optical behavior of such structures...... is essential. Here, an analytical method for precisely predicting the absolute positions of resonantly reflected wavelengths is presented. The model is experimentally verified to be highly accurate using nanoreplicated, polymer-based photonic crystal grating reflectors with varying grating periods...

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

Prediction of total organic carbon content in shale reservoir based on a new integrated hybrid neural network and conventional well logging curves

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Linqi; Zhang, Chong; Zhang, Chaomo; Wei, Yang; Zhou, Xueqing; Cheng, Yuan; Huang, Yuyang; Zhang, Le

2018-06-01

There is increasing interest in shale gas reservoirs due to their abundant reserves. As a key evaluation criterion, the total organic carbon content (TOC) of the reservoirs can reflect its hydrocarbon generation potential. The existing TOC calculation model is not very accurate and there is still the possibility for improvement. In this paper, an integrated hybrid neural network (IHNN) model is proposed for predicting the TOC. This is based on the fact that the TOC information on the low TOC reservoir, where the TOC is easy to evaluate, comes from a prediction problem, which is the inherent problem of the existing algorithm. By comparing the prediction models established in 132 rock samples in the shale gas reservoir within the Jiaoshiba area, it can be seen that the accuracy of the proposed IHNN model is much higher than that of the other prediction models. The mean square error of the samples, which were not joined to the established models, was reduced from 0.586 to 0.442. The results show that TOC prediction is easier after logging prediction has been improved. Furthermore, this paper puts forward the next research direction of the prediction model. The IHNN algorithm can help evaluate the TOC of a shale gas reservoir.

Meta-analytic approach to the accurate prediction of secreted virulence effectors in gram-negative bacteria

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Sato Yoshiharu

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many pathogens use a type III secretion system to translocate virulence proteins (called effectors in order to adapt to the host environment. To date, many prediction tools for effector identification have been developed. However, these tools are insufficiently accurate for producing a list of putative effectors that can be applied directly for labor-intensive experimental verification. This also suggests that important features of effectors have yet to be fully characterized. Results In this study, we have constructed an accurate approach to predicting secreted virulence effectors from Gram-negative bacteria. This consists of a support vector machine-based discriminant analysis followed by a simple criteria-based filtering. The accuracy was assessed by estimating the average number of true positives in the top-20 ranking in the genome-wide screening. In the validation, 10 sets of 20 training and 20 testing examples were randomly selected from 40 known effectors of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium LT2. On average, the SVM portion of our system predicted 9.7 true positives from 20 testing examples in the top-20 of the prediction. Removal of the N-terminal instability, codon adaptation index and ProtParam indices decreased the score to 7.6, 8.9 and 7.9, respectively. These discrimination features suggested that the following characteristics of effectors had been uncovered: unstable N-terminus, non-optimal codon usage, hydrophilic, and less aliphathic. The secondary filtering process represented by coexpression analysis and domain distribution analysis further refined the average true positive counts to 12.3. We further confirmed that our system can correctly predict known effectors of P. syringae DC3000, strongly indicating its feasibility. Conclusions We have successfully developed an accurate prediction system for screening effectors on a genome-wide scale. We confirmed the accuracy of our system by external validation

Hybridization properties of long nucleic acid probes for detection of variable target sequences, and development of a hybridization prediction algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Öhrmalm, Christina; Jobs, Magnus; Eriksson, Ronnie; Golbob, Sultan; Elfaitouri, Amal; Benachenhou, Farid; Strømme, Maria; Blomberg, Jonas

2010-01-01

One of the main problems in nucleic acid-based techniques for detection of infectious agents, such as influenza viruses, is that of nucleic acid sequence variation. DNA probes, 70-nt long, some including the nucleotide analog deoxyribose-Inosine (dInosine), were analyzed for hybridization tolerance to different amounts and distributions of mismatching bases, e.g. synonymous mutations, in target DNA. Microsphere-linked 70-mer probes were hybridized in 3M TMAC buffer to biotinylated single-stranded (ss) DNA for subsequent analysis in a Luminex® system. When mismatches interrupted contiguous matching stretches of 6 nt or longer, it had a strong impact on hybridization. Contiguous matching stretches are more important than the same number of matching nucleotides separated by mismatches into several regions. dInosine, but not 5-nitroindole, substitutions at mismatching positions stabilized hybridization remarkably well, comparable to N (4-fold) wobbles in the same positions. In contrast to shorter probes, 70-nt probes with judiciously placed dInosine substitutions and/or wobble positions were remarkably mismatch tolerant, with preserved specificity. An algorithm, NucZip, was constructed to model the nucleation and zipping phases of hybridization, integrating both local and distant binding contributions. It predicted hybridization more exactly than previous algorithms, and has the potential to guide the design of variation-tolerant yet specific probes. PMID:20864443

Toward a Smart Car: Hybrid Nonlinear Predictive Controller With Adaptive Horizon

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pčolka, M.; Žáčeková, E.; Čelikovský, Sergej; Šebek, M.

(2018), č. článku 08059760. ISSN 1063-6536 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-04682S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Autonomous vehicles * hybrid systems * nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) * optimization * vehicle control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.882, year: 2016 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8059760/

Hybrid Disease Diagnosis Using Multiobjective Optimization with Evolutionary Parameter Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MadhuSudana Rao Nalluri

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the widespread adoption of e-Healthcare and telemedicine applications, accurate, intelligent disease diagnosis systems have been profoundly coveted. In recent years, numerous individual machine learning-based classifiers have been proposed and tested, and the fact that a single classifier cannot effectively classify and diagnose all diseases has been almost accorded with. This has seen a number of recent research attempts to arrive at a consensus using ensemble classification techniques. In this paper, a hybrid system is proposed to diagnose ailments using optimizing individual classifier parameters for two classifier techniques, namely, support vector machine (SVM and multilayer perceptron (MLP technique. We employ three recent evolutionary algorithms to optimize the parameters of the classifiers above, leading to six alternative hybrid disease diagnosis systems, also referred to as hybrid intelligent systems (HISs. Multiple objectives, namely, prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, have been considered to assess the efficacy of the proposed hybrid systems with existing ones. The proposed model is evaluated on 11 benchmark datasets, and the obtained results demonstrate that our proposed hybrid diagnosis systems perform better in terms of disease prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Pertinent statistical tests were carried out to substantiate the efficacy of the obtained results.

The X3LYP extended density functional for accurate descriptions of nonbond interactions, spin states, and thermochemical properties

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xin; Goddard, William A.

2004-01-01

We derive the form for an exact exchange energy density for a density decaying with Gaussian-like behavior at long range. Based on this, we develop the X3LYP (extended hybrid functional combined with Lee–Yang–Parr correlation functional) extended functional for density functional theory to significantly improve the accuracy for hydrogen-bonded and van der Waals complexes while also improving the accuracy in heats of formation, ionization potentials, electron affinities, and total atomic energies [over the most popular and accurate method, B3LYP (Becke three-parameter hybrid functional combined with Lee–Yang–Parr correlation functional)]. X3LYP also leads to a good description of dipole moments, polarizabilities, and accurate excitation energies from s to d orbitals for transition metal atoms and ions. We suggest that X3LYP will be useful for predicting ligand binding in proteins and DNA. PMID:14981235

Prediction of genetic gain from selection indices for disease resistance in papaya hybrids

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Marcelo Vivas

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In order to select superior hybrids for the concentration of favorable alleles for resistance to papaya black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot, 67 hybrids were evaluated in two seasons, in 2007, in a randomized block design with two replications. Genetic gains were estimated from the selection indices of Smith & Hazel, Pesek & Baker, Williams, Mulamba & Mock, with selection intensity of 22.39%, corresponding to 15 hybrids. The index of Mulamba & Mock showed gains more suitable for the five traits assessed when it was used the criterion of economic weight tentatively assigned. Together, severity of black spot on leaves and on fruits, characteristics considered most relevant to the selection of resistant materials, expressed percentage gain of -44.15%. In addition, there were gains for other characteristics, with negative predicted selective percentage gain. The results showed that the index of Mulamba & Mock is the most efficient procedure for simultaneous selection of papaya hybrid resistant to black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot.

A rapid and accurate approach for prediction of interactomes from co-elution data (PrInCE).

Science.gov (United States)

Stacey, R Greg; Skinnider, Michael A; Scott, Nichollas E; Foster, Leonard J

2017-10-23

An organism's protein interactome, or complete network of protein-protein interactions, defines the protein complexes that drive cellular processes. Techniques for studying protein complexes have traditionally applied targeted strategies such as yeast two-hybrid or affinity purification-mass spectrometry to assess protein interactions. However, given the vast number of protein complexes, more scalable methods are necessary to accelerate interaction discovery and to construct whole interactomes. We recently developed a complementary technique based on the use of protein correlation profiling (PCP) and stable isotope labeling in amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) to assess chromatographic co-elution as evidence of interacting proteins. Importantly, PCP-SILAC is also capable of measuring protein interactions simultaneously under multiple biological conditions, allowing the detection of treatment-specific changes to an interactome. Given the uniqueness and high dimensionality of co-elution data, new tools are needed to compare protein elution profiles, control false discovery rates, and construct an accurate interactome. Here we describe a freely available bioinformatics pipeline, PrInCE, for the analysis of co-elution data. PrInCE is a modular, open-source library that is computationally inexpensive, able to use label and label-free data, and capable of detecting tens of thousands of protein-protein interactions. Using a machine learning approach, PrInCE offers greatly reduced run time, more predicted interactions at the same stringency, prediction of protein complexes, and greater ease of use over previous bioinformatics tools for co-elution data. PrInCE is implemented in Matlab (version R2017a). Source code and standalone executable programs for Windows and Mac OSX are available at https://github.com/fosterlab/PrInCE , where usage instructions can be found. An example dataset and output are also provided for testing purposes. PrInCE is the first fast and easy

An Accurate Estimate of the Free Energy and Phase Diagram of All-DNA Bulk Fluids

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Emanuele Locatelli

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We present a numerical study in which large-scale bulk simulations of self-assembled DNA constructs have been carried out with a realistic coarse-grained model. The investigation aims at obtaining a precise, albeit numerically demanding, estimate of the free energy for such systems. We then, in turn, use these accurate results to validate a recently proposed theoretical approach that builds on a liquid-state theory, the Wertheim theory, to compute the phase diagram of all-DNA fluids. This hybrid theoretical/numerical approach, based on the lowest-order virial expansion and on a nearest-neighbor DNA model, can provide, in an undemanding way, a parameter-free thermodynamic description of DNA associating fluids that is in semi-quantitative agreement with experiments. We show that the predictions of the scheme are as accurate as those obtained with more sophisticated methods. We also demonstrate the flexibility of the approach by incorporating non-trivial additional contributions that go beyond the nearest-neighbor model to compute the DNA hybridization free energy.

Advanced management of pipe wall thinning based on prediction-monitor fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Fumio; Uchida, Shunsuke

2012-01-01

This article is concerned with pipe wall thinning management system by means of hybrid use of simulation and monitoring. First, the computer-aided simulation for predicting wear rate of piping system is developed based on elucidation of thinning mechanism such as flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). The accurate prediction of wear rate allows us the useful information on region of interest of inspection. Secondly, several monitoring methods are considered in accordance with interest of inspection. Thirdly, probability of detection (POD) is considered for the reliability of inspection data. The final part of this article is devoted to how to improve safety performance under the hybrid use of predicting and monitoring on the proposed pipe wall management. (author)

Prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions of dot-blot-SNP analysis using estimated melting temperature of oligonucleotide probes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiokai, Sachiko; Kitashiba, Hiroyasu; Nishio, Takeshi

2010-08-01

Although the dot-blot-SNP technique is a simple cost-saving technique suitable for genotyping of many plant individuals, optimization of hybridization and washing conditions for each SNP marker requires much time and labor. For prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions for each probe, we compared T (m) values estimated from nucleotide sequences using the DINAMelt web server, measured T (m) values, and hybridization conditions yielding allele-specific signals. The estimated T (m) values were comparable to the measured T (m) values with small differences of less than 3 degrees C for most of the probes. There were differences of approximately 14 degrees C between the specific signal detection conditions and estimated T (m) values. Change of one level of SSC concentrations of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0x SSC corresponded to a difference of approximately 5 degrees C in optimum signal detection temperature. Increasing the sensitivity of signal detection by shortening the exposure time to X-ray film changed the optimum hybridization condition for specific signal detection. Addition of competitive oligonucleotides to the hybridization mixture increased the suitable hybridization conditions by 1.8. Based on these results, optimum hybridization conditions for newly produced dot-blot-SNP markers will become predictable.

Predicting High or Low Transfer Efficiency of Photovoltaic Systems Using a Novel Hybrid Methodology Combining Rough Set Theory, Data Envelopment Analysis and Genetic Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee-Ing Tong

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Solar energy has become an important energy source in recent years as it generates less pollution than other energies. A photovoltaic (PV system, which typically has many components, converts solar energy into electrical energy. With the development of advanced engineering technologies, the transfer efficiency of a PV system has been increased from low to high. The combination of components in a PV system influences its transfer efficiency. Therefore, when predicting the transfer efficiency of a PV system, one must consider the relationship among system components. This work accurately predicts whether transfer efficiency of a PV system is high or low using a novel hybrid model that combines rough set theory (RST, data envelopment analysis (DEA, and genetic programming (GP. Finally, real data-set are utilized to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.

ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

2009-02-01

A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

Science.gov (United States)

Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

2015-12-01

Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

REVIEW OF HEART DISEASE PREDICTION SYSTEM USING DATA MINING AND HYBRID INTELLIGENT TECHNIQUES

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R. Chitra

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The Healthcare industry generally clinical diagnosis is done mostly by doctor’s expertise and experience. Computer Aided Decision Support System plays a major role in medical field. With the growing research on heart disease predicting system, it has become important to categories the research outcomes and provides readers with an overview of the existing heart disease prediction techniques in each category. Neural Networks are one of many data mining analytical tools that can be utilized to make predictions for medical data. From the study it is observed that Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm improves the accuracy of the heart disease prediction system. The commonly used techniques for Heart Disease Prediction and their complexities are summarized in this paper.

Fluctuation localization imaging-based fluorescence in situ hybridization (fliFISH) for accurate detection and counting of RNA copies in single cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cui, Yi; Hu, Dehong; Markillie, Lye Meng; Chrisler, William B.; Gaffrey, Matthew J.; Ansong, Charles; Sussel, Lori; Orr, Galya

2017-10-04

Quantitative gene expression analysis in intact single cells can be achieved using single molecule- based fluorescence in situ hybridization (smFISH). This approach relies on fluorescence intensity to distinguish between true signals, emitted from an RNA copy hybridized with multiple FISH sub-probes, and background noise. Thus, the precision in smFISH is often compromised by partial or nonspecific binding of sub-probes and tissue autofluorescence, limiting its accuracy. Here we provide an accurate approach for setting quantitative thresholds between true and false signals, which relies on blinking frequencies of photoswitchable dyes. This fluctuation localization imaging-based FISH (fliFISH) uses blinking frequency patterns, emitted from a transcript bound to multiple sub-probes, which are distinct from blinking patterns emitted from partial or nonspecifically bound sub-probes and autofluorescence. Using multicolor fliFISH, we identified radial gene expression patterns in mouse pancreatic islets for insulin, the transcription factor, NKX2-2, and their ratio (Nkx2-2/Ins2). These radial patterns, showing higher values in β cells at the islet core and lower values in peripheral cells, were lost in diabetic mouse islets. In summary, fliFISH provides an accurate, quantitative approach for detecting and counting true RNA copies and rejecting false signals by their distinct blinking frequency patterns, laying the foundation for reliable single-cell transcriptomics.

From The Cover: The X3LYP extended density functional for accurate descriptions of nonbond interactions, spin states, and thermochemical properties

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xin; Goddard, William A., III

2004-03-01

We derive the form for an exact exchange energy density for a density decaying with Gaussian-like behavior at long range. Based on this, we develop the X3LYP (extended hybrid functional combined with Lee-Yang-Parr correlation functional) extended functional for density functional theory to significantly improve the accuracy for hydrogen-bonded and van der Waals complexes while also improving the accuracy in heats of formation, ionization potentials, electron affinities, and total atomic energies [over the most popular and accurate method, B3LYP (Becke three-parameter hybrid functional combined with Lee-Yang-Parr correlation functional)]. X3LYP also leads to a good description of dipole moments, polarizabilities, and accurate excitation energies from s to d orbitals for transition metal atoms and ions. We suggest that X3LYP will be useful for predicting ligand binding in proteins and DNA.

Accurate cut-offs for predicting endoscopic activity and mucosal healing in Crohn's disease with fecal calprotectin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan María Vázquez-Morón

Full Text Available Background: Fecal biomarkers, especially fecal calprotectin, are useful for predicting endoscopic activity in Crohn's disease; however, the cut-off point remains unclear. The aim of this paper was to analyze whether faecal calprotectin and M2 pyruvate kinase are good tools for generating highly accurate scores for the prediction of the state of endoscopic activity and mucosal healing. Methods: The simple endoscopic score for Crohn's disease and the Crohn's disease activity index was calculated for 71 patients diagnosed with Crohn's. Fecal calprotectin and M2-PK were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Results: A fecal calprotectin cut-off concentration of ≥ 170 µg/g (sensitivity 77.6%, specificity 95.5% and likelihood ratio +17.06 predicts a high probability of endoscopic activity, and a fecal calprotectin cut-off of ≤ 71 µg/g (sensitivity 95.9%, specificity 52.3% and likelihood ratio -0.08 predicts a high probability of mucosal healing. Three clinical groups were identified according to the data obtained: endoscopic activity (calprotectin ≥ 170, mucosal healing (calprotectin ≤ 71 and uncertainty (71 > calprotectin < 170, with significant differences in endoscopic values (F = 26.407, p < 0.01. Clinical activity or remission modified the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity (100% vs 89% or mucosal healing (75% vs 87% in the diagnostic scores generated. M2-PK was insufficiently accurate to determine scores. Conclusions: The highly accurate scores for fecal calprotectin provide a useful tool for interpreting the probabilities of presenting endoscopic activity or mucosal healing, and are valuable in the specific clinical context.

Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

Prediction of settled water turbidity and optimal coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant using a hybrid model of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Chan Moon; Parnichkun, Manukid

2017-11-01

Coagulation is an important process in drinking water treatment to attain acceptable treated water quality. However, the determination of coagulant dosage is still a challenging task for operators, because coagulation is nonlinear and complicated process. Feedback control to achieve the desired treated water quality is difficult due to lengthy process time. In this research, a hybrid of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ( k-means-ANFIS) is proposed for the settled water turbidity prediction and the optimal coagulant dosage determination using full-scale historical data. To build a well-adaptive model to different process states from influent water, raw water quality data are classified into four clusters according to its properties by a k-means clustering technique. The sub-models are developed individually on the basis of each clustered data set. Results reveal that the sub-models constructed by a hybrid k-means-ANFIS perform better than not only a single ANFIS model, but also seasonal models by artificial neural network (ANN). The finally completed model consisting of sub-models shows more accurate and consistent prediction ability than a single model of ANFIS and a single model of ANN based on all five evaluation indices. Therefore, the hybrid model of k-means-ANFIS can be employed as a robust tool for managing both treated water quality and production costs simultaneously.

MPC-based energy management with adaptive Markov-chain prediction for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XIANG; ChangLe; DING; Feng; WANG; WeiDa; HE; Wei; QI; YunLong

2017-01-01

The and energy to management strategy battery is state an important part of a hybrid electrical vehicle design.It is used to improve various fuel economy sustain a proper of charge an by controlling control the power components is while satisfying to constraints and driving demands.However,achieving optimal and performance challenging due the nonlinearities of the hybrid powertrain,conflicting vehicle the time varying constraints,the dilemma capable in which controller control complexity and real-time capability are generally objectives.In this paper,a of real-time cascaded complies strategy is proposed for a dual-mode hybrid electric that considers controller based nonlinearities based the system model and with all time-varying with constraints.sampling The strategy consists of a supervisory controller on a non-linear predictive control short(MPC)sampling a long time with future strategy interval and a coordinating on linear model predictive based control with a time interval to deal different load dynamics of the system.The Additionally,a novel data methodology using adaptive Markov chains to predict demand is introduced.predictive future information is used to improve controller cycles performance.conducted.The The proposed is implemented validity on a real test-bed approach and experimental trials using economy unknown is driving are results other demonstrate the of the proposed and show that fuel significantly improved compared with methods.

MPC-based energy management with adaptive Markov-chain prediction for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XIANG ChangLe; DING Feng; WANG WeiDa; HE Wei; QI YunLong

2017-01-01

The energy management strategy is an important part of a hybrid electrical vehicle design.It is used to improve fuel economy and to sustain a proper battery state of charge by controlling the power components while satisfying various constraints and driving demands.However,achieving an optimal control performance is challenging due to the nonlinearities of the hybrid powertrain,the time varying constraints,and the dilemma in which controller complexity and real-time capability are generally conflicting objectives.In this paper,a real-time capable cascaded control strategy is proposed for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle that considers nonlinearities of the system and complies with all time-varying constraints.The strategy consists of a supervisory controller based on a non-linear model predictive control (MPC) with a long sampling time interval and a coordinating controller based on linear model predictive control with a short sampling time interval to deal with different dynamics of the system.Additionally,a novel data based methodology using adaptive Markov chains to predict future load demand is introduced.The predictive future information is used to improve controller performance.The proposed strategy is implemented on a real test-bed and experimental trials using unknown driving cycles are conducted.The results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach and show that fuel economy is significantly improved compared with other methods.

Hybrid vortex simulations of wind turbines using a three-dimensional viscous-inviscid panel method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramos García, Néstor; Hejlesen, Mads Mølholm; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

2017-01-01

adirect calculation, whereas the contribution from the large downstream wake is calculated using a mesh-based method. Thehybrid method is first validated in detail against the well-known MEXICO experiment, using the direct filament method asa comparison. The second part of the validation includes a study......A hybrid filament-mesh vortex method is proposed and validated to predict the aerodynamic performance of wind turbinerotors and to simulate the resulting wake. Its novelty consists of using a hybrid method to accurately simulate the wakedownstream of the wind turbine while reducing...

Affordable and accurate large-scale hybrid-functional calculations on GPU-accelerated supercomputers

Science.gov (United States)

Ratcliff, Laura E.; Degomme, A.; Flores-Livas, José A.; Goedecker, Stefan; Genovese, Luigi

2018-03-01

Performing high accuracy hybrid functional calculations for condensed matter systems containing a large number of atoms is at present computationally very demanding or even out of reach if high quality basis sets are used. We present a highly optimized multiple graphics processing unit implementation of the exact exchange operator which allows one to perform fast hybrid functional density-functional theory (DFT) calculations with systematic basis sets without additional approximations for up to a thousand atoms. With this method hybrid DFT calculations of high quality become accessible on state-of-the-art supercomputers within a time-to-solution that is of the same order of magnitude as traditional semilocal-GGA functionals. The method is implemented in a portable open-source library.

Lower hybrid current drive: an overview of simulation models, benchmarking with experiment, and predictions for future devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonoli, P.T.; Barbato, E.; Imbeaux, F.

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the status of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulation and modeling. We first discuss modules used for wave propagation, absorption, and current drive with particular emphasis placed on comparing exact numerical solutions of the Fokker Planck equation in 2-dimension with solution methods that employ 1-dimensional and adjoint approaches. We also survey model predictions for LHCD in past and present experiments showing detailed comparisons between simulated and observed current drive efficiencies and hard X-ray profiles. Finally we discuss several model predictions for lower hybrid current profile control in proposed next step reactor options. (authors)

DisoMCS: Accurately Predicting Protein Intrinsically Disordered Regions Using a Multi-Class Conservative Score Approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiheng Wang

Full Text Available The precise prediction of protein intrinsically disordered regions, which play a crucial role in biological procedures, is a necessary prerequisite to further the understanding of the principles and mechanisms of protein function. Here, we propose a novel predictor, DisoMCS, which is a more accurate predictor of protein intrinsically disordered regions. The DisoMCS bases on an original multi-class conservative score (MCS obtained by sequence-order/disorder alignment. Initially, near-disorder regions are defined on fragments located at both the terminus of an ordered region connecting a disordered region. Then the multi-class conservative score is generated by sequence alignment against a known structure database and represented as order, near-disorder and disorder conservative scores. The MCS of each amino acid has three elements: order, near-disorder and disorder profiles. Finally, the MCS is exploited as features to identify disordered regions in sequences. DisoMCS utilizes a non-redundant data set as the training set, MCS and predicted secondary structure as features, and a conditional random field as the classification algorithm. In predicted near-disorder regions a residue is determined as an order or a disorder according to the optimized decision threshold. DisoMCS was evaluated by cross-validation, large-scale prediction, independent tests and CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction tests. All results confirmed that DisoMCS was very competitive in terms of accuracy of prediction when compared with well-established publicly available disordered region predictors. It also indicated our approach was more accurate when a query has higher homologous with the knowledge database.The DisoMCS is available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/disorder/.

Application of soft computing based hybrid models in hydrological variables modeling: a comprehensive review

Science.gov (United States)

Fahimi, Farzad; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; El-shafie, Ahmed

2017-05-01

Since the middle of the twentieth century, artificial intelligence (AI) models have been used widely in engineering and science problems. Water resource variable modeling and prediction are the most challenging issues in water engineering. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a common approach used to tackle this problem by using viable and efficient models. Numerous ANN models have been successfully developed to achieve more accurate results. In the current review, different ANN models in water resource applications and hydrological variable predictions are reviewed and outlined. In addition, recent hybrid models and their structures, input preprocessing, and optimization techniques are discussed and the results are compared with similar previous studies. Moreover, to achieve a comprehensive view of the literature, many articles that applied ANN models together with other techniques are included. Consequently, coupling procedure, model evaluation, and performance comparison of hybrid models with conventional ANN models are assessed, as well as, taxonomy and hybrid ANN models structures. Finally, current challenges and recommendations for future researches are indicated and new hybrid approaches are proposed.

Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Noecker

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV. First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral

Improving medical decisions for incapacitated persons: does focusing on "accurate predictions" lead to an inaccurate picture?

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Scott Y H

2014-04-01

The Patient Preference Predictor (PPP) proposal places a high priority on the accuracy of predicting patients' preferences and finds the performance of surrogates inadequate. However, the quest to develop a highly accurate, individualized statistical model has significant obstacles. First, it will be impossible to validate the PPP beyond the limit imposed by 60%-80% reliability of people's preferences for future medical decisions--a figure no better than the known average accuracy of surrogates. Second, evidence supports the view that a sizable minority of persons may not even have preferences to predict. Third, many, perhaps most, people express their autonomy just as much by entrusting their loved ones to exercise their judgment than by desiring to specifically control future decisions. Surrogate decision making faces none of these issues and, in fact, it may be more efficient, accurate, and authoritative than is commonly assumed.

Predicting Jakarta composite index using hybrid of fuzzy time series and support vector regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Febrian Umbara, Rian; Tarwidi, Dede; Budi Setiawan, Erwin

2018-03-01

The paper discusses the prediction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study is based on JCI historical data for 1286 days to predict the value of JCI one day ahead. This paper proposes predictions done in two stages., The first stage using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) to predict values of ten technical indicators, and the second stage using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the value of JCI one day ahead, resulting in a hybrid prediction model FTS-SVR. The performance of this combined prediction model is compared with the performance of the single stage prediction model using SVR only. Ten technical indicators are used as input for each model.

The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jorgensen, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-03-02

Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

Feature Selection using Multi-objective Genetic Algorith m: A Hybrid Approach

OpenAIRE

Ahuja, Jyoti; GJUST - Guru Jambheshwar University of Sciecne and Technology; Ratnoo, Saroj Dahiya; GJUST - Guru Jambheshwar University of Sciecne and Technology

2015-01-01

Feature selection is an important pre-processing task for building accurate and comprehensible classification models. Several researchers have applied filter, wrapper or hybrid approaches using genetic algorithms which are good candidates for optimization problems that involve large search spaces like in the case of feature selection. Moreover, feature selection is an inherently multi-objective problem with many competing objectives involving size, predictive power and redundancy of the featu...

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

A hybrid approach for probabilistic forecasting of electricity price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Wang, Yelei

2014-01-01

to the nonstationarities involved in market clearing prices (MCPs), it is rather difficult to accurately predict MCPs in advance. The challenge is getting intensified as more and more renewable energy and other new technologies emerged in smart grids. Therefore transformation from traditional point forecasts...... electricity price forecasting is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method has been validated through comprehensive tests using real price data from Australian electricity market.......The electricity market plays a key role in realizing the economic prophecy of smart grids. Accurate and reliable electricity market price forecasting is essential to facilitate various decision making activities of market participants in the future smart grid environment. However, due...

Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weide Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

Hybrid model predictive control applied to switching control of burner load for a compact marine boiler design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Solberg, Brian; Andersen, Palle; Maciejowski, Jan

2008-01-01

This paper discusses the application of hybrid model predictive control to control switching between different burner modes in a novel compact marine boiler design. A further purpose of the present work is to point out problems with finite horizon model predictive control applied to systems for w...

Model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper based on hybrid model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Yuan, Chaochun; Cai, Yingfeng; Wang, Shaohua; Chen, Long

2017-09-01

This paper presents the hybrid modeling and the model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper. Unlike traditional damper with continuously adjustable damping, in this study, a new damper with four discrete damping modes is applied to vehicle semi-active air suspension. The new damper can achieve different damping modes by just controlling the on-off statuses of two solenoid valves, which makes its damping adjustment more efficient and more reliable. However, since the damping mode switching induces different modes of operation, the air suspension system with the new damper poses challenging hybrid control problem. To model both the continuous/discrete dynamics and the switching between different damping modes, the framework of mixed logical dynamical (MLD) systems is used to establish the system hybrid model. Based on the resulting hybrid dynamical model, the system control problem is recast as a model predictive control (MPC) problem, which allows us to optimize the switching sequences of the damping modes by taking into account the suspension performance requirements. Numerical simulations results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control method finally.

A highly accurate predictive-adaptive method for lithium-ion battery remaining discharge energy prediction in electric vehicle applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Guangming; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Hua, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An energy prediction (EP) method is introduced for battery E RDE determination. • EP determines E RDE through coupled prediction of future states, parameters, and output. • The PAEP combines parameter adaptation and prediction to update model parameters. • The PAEP provides improved E RDE accuracy compared with DC and other EP methods. - Abstract: In order to estimate the remaining driving range (RDR) in electric vehicles, the remaining discharge energy (E RDE ) of the applied battery system needs to be precisely predicted. Strongly affected by the load profiles, the available E RDE varies largely in real-world applications and requires specific determination. However, the commonly-used direct calculation (DC) method might result in certain energy prediction errors by relating the E RDE directly to the current state of charge (SOC). To enhance the E RDE accuracy, this paper presents a battery energy prediction (EP) method based on the predictive control theory, in which a coupled prediction of future battery state variation, battery model parameter change, and voltage response, is implemented on the E RDE prediction horizon, and the E RDE is subsequently accumulated and real-timely optimized. Three EP approaches with different model parameter updating routes are introduced, and the predictive-adaptive energy prediction (PAEP) method combining the real-time parameter identification and the future parameter prediction offers the best potential. Based on a large-format lithium-ion battery, the performance of different E RDE calculation methods is compared under various dynamic profiles. Results imply that the EP methods provide much better accuracy than the traditional DC method, and the PAEP could reduce the E RDE error by more than 90% and guarantee the relative energy prediction error under 2%, proving as a proper choice in online E RDE prediction. The correlation of SOC estimation and E RDE calculation is then discussed to illustrate the

Prediction of industrial tomato hybrids from agronomic traits and ISSR molecular markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, A S T; Resende, J T V; Faria, M V; Da-Silva, P R; Fagundes, B S; Morales, R G F

2016-05-13

Heterosis is a highly relevant phenomenon in plant breeding. This condition is usually established in hybrids derived from crosses of highly divergent parents. The success of a breeder in obtaining heterosis is directly related to the correct identification of genetically contrasting parents. Currently, the diallel cross is the most commonly used methodology to detect contrasting parents; however, it is a time- and cost-consuming procedure. Therefore, new tools capable of performing this task quickly and accurately are required. Thus, the purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic divergence in industrial tomato lines, based on agronomic traits, and to compare with estimates obtained using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) molecular markers. The genetic divergence among 10 industrial tomato lines, based on nine morphological characters and 12 ISSR primers was analyzed. For data analysis, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the genetic dissimilarity measures estimated by Mahalanobis distance and Jaccard's coefficient of genetic dissimilarity from the heterosis estimates, combining ability, and means of important traits of industrial tomato. The ISSR markers efficiently detected contrasting parents for hybrid production in tomato. Parent RVTD-08 was indicated as the most divergent, both by molecular and morphological markers, that positively contributed to increased heterosis and by the specific combining ability in the crosses in which it participated. The genetic dissimilarity estimated by ISSR molecular markers aided the identification of the best hybrids of the experiment in terms of total fruit yield, pulp yield, and soluble solids content.

Optimization of the BLASTN substitution matrix for prediction of non-specific DNA microarray hybridization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eklund, Aron Charles; Friis, Pia; Wernersson, Rasmus

2010-01-01

BLASTN accuracy by modifying the substitution matrix and gap penalties. We generated gene expression microarray data for samples in which 1 or 10% of the target mass was an exogenous spike of known sequence. We found that the 10% spike induced 2-fold intensity changes in 3% of the probes, two......-third of which were decreases in intensity likely caused by bulk-hybridization. These changes were correlated with similarity between the spike and probe sequences. Interestingly, even very weak similarities tended to induce a change in probe intensity with the 10% spike. Using this data, we optimized the BLASTN...... substitution matrix to more accurately identify probes susceptible to non-specific hybridization with the spike. Relative to the default substitution matrix, the optimized matrix features a decreased score for A–T base pairs relative to G–C base pairs, resulting in a 5–15% increase in area under the ROC curve...

An accurate modelling of the two-diode model of PV module using a hybrid solution based on differential evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, Vun Jack; Salam, Zainal; Ishaque, Kashif

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An accurate computational method for the two-diode model of PV module is proposed. • The hybrid method employs analytical equations and Differential Evolution (DE). • I PV , I o1 , and R p are computed analytically, while a 1 , a 2 , I o2 and R s are optimized. • This allows the model parameters to be computed without using costly assumptions. - Abstract: This paper proposes an accurate computational technique for the two-diode model of PV module. Unlike previous methods, it does not rely on assumptions that cause the accuracy to be compromised. The key to this improvement is the implementation of a hybrid solution, i.e. by incorporating the analytical method with the differential evolution (DE) optimization technique. Three parameters, i.e. I PV , I o1 , and R p are computed analytically, while the remaining, a 1 , a 2 , I o2 and R s are optimized using the DE. To validate its accuracy, the proposed method is tested on three PV modules of different technologies: mono-crystalline, poly-crystalline and thin film. Furthermore, its performance is evaluated against two popular computational methods for the two-diode model. The proposed method is found to exhibit superior accuracy for the variation in irradiance and temperature for all module types. In particular, the improvement in accuracy is evident at low irradiance conditions; the root-mean-square error is one order of magnitude lower than that of the other methods. In addition, the values of the model parameters are consistent with the physics of PV cell. It is envisaged that the method can be very useful for PV simulation, in which accuracy of the model is of prime concern.

Hybrid neural network for density limit disruption prediction and avoidance on J-TEXT tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, W.; Hu, F. R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Z. Y.; Zhao, X. Q.; Wang, X. L.; Shi, P.; Zhang, X. L.; Zhang, X. Q.; Zhou, Y. N.; Wei, Y. N.; Pan, Y.; J-TEXT team

2018-05-01

Increasing the plasma density is one of the key methods in achieving an efficient fusion reaction. High-density operation is one of the hot topics in tokamak plasmas. Density limit disruptions remain an important issue for safe operation. An effective density limit disruption prediction and avoidance system is the key to avoid density limit disruptions for long pulse steady state operations. An artificial neural network has been developed for the prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. The neural network has been improved from a simple multi-layer design to a hybrid two-stage structure. The first stage is a custom network which uses time series diagnostics as inputs to predict plasma density, and the second stage is a three-layer feedforward neural network to predict the probability of density limit disruptions. It is found that hybrid neural network structure, combined with radiation profile information as an input can significantly improve the prediction performance, especially the average warning time ({{T}warn} ). In particular, the {{T}warn} is eight times better than that in previous work (Wang et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 055014) (from 5 ms to 40 ms). The success rate for density limit disruptive shots is above 90%, while, the false alarm rate for other shots is below 10%. Based on the density limit disruption prediction system and the real-time density feedback control system, the on-line density limit disruption avoidance system has been implemented on the J-TEXT tokamak.

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

2011-01-15

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

Methods for Efficiently and Accurately Computing Quantum Mechanical Free Energies for Enzyme Catalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearns, F L; Hudson, P S; Boresch, S; Woodcock, H L

2016-01-01

Enzyme activity is inherently linked to free energies of transition states, ligand binding, protonation/deprotonation, etc.; these free energies, and thus enzyme function, can be affected by residue mutations, allosterically induced conformational changes, and much more. Therefore, being able to predict free energies associated with enzymatic processes is critical to understanding and predicting their function. Free energy simulation (FES) has historically been a computational challenge as it requires both the accurate description of inter- and intramolecular interactions and adequate sampling of all relevant conformational degrees of freedom. The hybrid quantum mechanical molecular mechanical (QM/MM) framework is the current tool of choice when accurate computations of macromolecular systems are essential. Unfortunately, robust and efficient approaches that employ the high levels of computational theory needed to accurately describe many reactive processes (ie, ab initio, DFT), while also including explicit solvation effects and accounting for extensive conformational sampling are essentially nonexistent. In this chapter, we will give a brief overview of two recently developed methods that mitigate several major challenges associated with QM/MM FES: the QM non-Boltzmann Bennett's acceptance ratio method and the QM nonequilibrium work method. We will also describe usage of these methods to calculate free energies associated with (1) relative properties and (2) along reaction paths, using simple test cases with relevance to enzymes examples. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do dual-route models accurately predict reading and spelling performance in individuals with acquired alexia and agraphia?

Science.gov (United States)

Rapcsak, Steven Z; Henry, Maya L; Teague, Sommer L; Carnahan, Susan D; Beeson, Pélagie M

2007-06-18

Coltheart and co-workers [Castles, A., Bates, T. C., & Coltheart, M. (2006). John Marshall and the developmental dyslexias. Aphasiology, 20, 871-892; Coltheart, M., Rastle, K., Perry, C., Langdon, R., & Ziegler, J. (2001). DRC: A dual route cascaded model of visual word recognition and reading aloud. Psychological Review, 108, 204-256] have demonstrated that an equation derived from dual-route theory accurately predicts reading performance in young normal readers and in children with reading impairment due to developmental dyslexia or stroke. In this paper, we present evidence that the dual-route equation and a related multiple regression model also accurately predict both reading and spelling performance in adult neurological patients with acquired alexia and agraphia. These findings provide empirical support for dual-route theories of written language processing.

A Fuzzy-Logic Power Management Strategy Based on Markov Random Prediction for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanzi Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over the last few years; issues regarding the use of hybrid energy storage systems (HESSs in hybrid electric vehicles have been highlighted by the industry and in academic fields. This paper proposes a fuzzy-logic power management strategy based on Markov random prediction for an active parallel battery-UC HESS. The proposed power management strategy; the inputs for which are the vehicle speed; the current electric power demand and the predicted electric power demand; is used to distribute the electrical power between the battery bank and the UC bank. In this way; the battery bank power is limited to a certain range; and the peak and average charge/discharge power of the battery bank and overall loss incurred by the whole HESS are also reduced. Simulations and scaled-down experimental platforms are constructed to verify the proposed power management strategy. The simulations and experimental results demonstrate the advantages; feasibility and effectiveness of the fuzzy-logic power management strategy based on Markov random prediction.

A hybrid model to predict the entrainment and subsurface transport of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaulding, M.L.; Odulo, A.; Kolluru, V.S.

1992-01-01

The entrainment of surface oil into the water column and its subsequent subsurface transport and dispersion are predicted by a hybrid analytic-numerical solution to the advective diffusion equation. Total oil or selected hydrocarbon component concentrations in the water column are predicted. Assuming that the principal mechanism for entrainment is due to breaking waves, the oil entrainment rate is specified using the empirically based algorithm of Delvigne and Sweeney (1988). The subsurface transport model explicitly accounts for buoyant forces on dispersed oil by droplet size. Application of the model to an analytic test case and several hypothetical scenarios illustrates the model's utility. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

Science.gov (United States)

Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

2016-05-01

At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts

Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

2008-10-20

One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

A Hybrid Instance Selection Using Nearest-Neighbor for Cross-Project Defect Prediction

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Duksan Ryu; Jong-In Jang; Jongmoon Baik; Member; ACM; IEEE

2015-01-01

Software defect prediction (SDP) is an active research field in software engineering to identify defect-prone modules. Thanks to SDP, limited testing resources can be effectively allocated to defect-prone modules. Although SDP requires suffcient local data within a company, there are cases where local data are not available, e.g., pilot projects. Companies without local data can employ cross-project defect prediction (CPDP) using external data to build classifiers. The major challenge of CPDP is different distributions between training and test data. To tackle this, instances of source data similar to target data are selected to build classifiers. Software datasets have a class imbalance problem meaning the ratio of defective class to clean class is far low. It usually lowers the performance of classifiers. We propose a Hybrid Instance Selection Using Nearest-Neighbor (HISNN) method that performs a hybrid classification selectively learning local knowledge (via k-nearest neighbor) and global knowledge (via na¨ıve Bayes). Instances having strong local knowledge are identified via nearest-neighbors with the same class label. Previous studies showed low PD (probability of detection) or high PF (probability of false alarm) which is impractical to use. The experimental results show that HISNN produces high overall performance as well as high PD and low PF.

Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a hybrid model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and system dynamics (SD) for coal production–environmental pollution load in China. GA has been utilized in the optimization of the parameters of the SD model to reduce implementation subjectivity. The chain of “Economic development–coal demand–coal production–environmental pollution load” of China in 2030 was predicted, and scenarios were analyzed. Results show that: (1) GA performs well in optimizing the parameters of the SD model objectively and in simulating the historical data; (2) The demand for coal energy continuously increases, although the coal intensity has actually decreased because of China's persistent economic development. Furthermore, instead of reaching a turning point by 2030, the environmental pollution load continuously increases each year even under the scenario where coal intensity decreased by 20% and investment in pollution abatement increased by 20%; (3) For abating the amount of “three types of wastes”, reducing the coal intensity is more effective than reducing the polluted production per tonne of coal and increasing investment in pollution control. - Highlights: ► We propos a GA-SD model for China's coal production-pollution prediction. ► Genetic algorithm (GA) can objectively and accurately optimize parameters of system dynamics (SD) model. ► Environmental pollution in China is projected to grow in our scenarios by 2030. ► The mechanism of reducing waste production per tonne of coal mining is more effective than others.

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

Customer churn prediction using a hybrid method and censored data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Customers are believed to be the main part of any organization’s assets and customer retention as well as customer churn management are important responsibilities of organizations. In today’s competitive environment, organization must do their best to retain their existing customers since attracting new customers cost significantly more than taking care of existing ones. In this paper, we present a hybrid method based on neural network and Cox regression analysis where neural network is used for outlier data and Cox regression method is implemented for prediction of future events. The proposed model of this paper has been implemented on some data and the results are compared based on five criteria including prediction accuracy, errors’ type I and II, root mean square error and mean absolute deviation. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs better than alternative methods.

A novel hybrid approach for predicting wind farm power production based on wavelet transform, hybrid neural networks and imperialist competitive algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aghajani, Afshin; Kazemzadeh, Rasool; Ebrahimi, Afshin

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Proposing a novel hybrid method for short-term prediction of wind farms with high accuracy. • Investigating the prediction accuracy for proposed method in comparison with other methods. • Investigating the effect of six types of parameters as input data on predictions. • Comparing results for 6 & 4 types of the input parameters – addition of pressure and air humidity. - Abstract: This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach to forecast electric power production in wind farms. Wavelet transform (WT) is employed to filter input data of wind power, while radial basis function (RBF) neural network is utilized for primary prediction. For better predictions the main forecasting engine is comprised of three multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks by different learning algorithms of Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), and Bayesian regularization (BR). Meta-heuristic technique Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) is used to optimize neural networks’ weightings in order to escape from local minima. In the forecast process, the real data of wind farms located in the southern part of Alberta, Canada, are used to train and test the proposed model. The data are a complete set of six meteorological and technical characteristics, including wind speed, wind power, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and air humidity. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with several other wind power forecast techniques. Results of optimizations indicate the superiority of the proposed method over the other mentioned techniques; and, forecasting error is remarkably reduced. For instance, the average normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are respectively 11% and 14% lower for the proposed method in 1-h-ahead forecasts over a 24-h period with six types of input than those for the best of the compared models.

Predicting Freeway Work Zone Delays and Costs with a Hybrid Machine-Learning Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Du

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A hybrid machine-learning model, integrating an artificial neural network (ANN and a support vector machine (SVM model, is developed to predict spatiotemporal delays, subject to road geometry, number of lane closures, and work zone duration in different periods of a day and in the days of a week. The model is very user friendly, allowing the least inputs from the users. With that the delays caused by a work zone on any location of a New Jersey freeway can be predicted. To this end, tremendous amounts of data from different sources were collected to establish the relationship between the model inputs and outputs. A comparative analysis was conducted, and results indicate that the proposed model outperforms others in terms of the least root mean square error (RMSE. The proposed hybrid model can be used to calculate contractor penalty in terms of cost overruns as well as incentive reward schedule in case of early work competition. Additionally, it can assist work zone planners in determining the best start and end times of a work zone for developing and evaluating traffic mitigation and management plans.

Accurate diffraction data integration by the EVAL15 profile prediction method : Application in chemical and biological crystallography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xian, X.

2009-01-01

Accurate integration of reflection intensities plays an essential role in structure determination of the crystallized compound. A new diffraction data integration method, EVAL15, is presented in this thesis. This method uses the principle of general impacts to predict ab inito three-dimensional

SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxia Yang

Full Text Available Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jia; Sun, Jun; Liu, Rong

2015-01-01

Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder) by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

Combining structural modeling with ensemble machine learning to accurately predict protein fold stability and binding affinity effects upon mutation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niklas Berliner

Full Text Available Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases.

A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulino José García Nieto

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

Prediction of Coal Face Gas Concentration by Multi-Scale Selective Ensemble Hybrid Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WU Xiang

2014-06-01

Full Text Available A selective ensemble hybrid modeling prediction method based on wavelet transformation is proposed to improve the fitting and generalization capability of the existing prediction models of the coal face gas concentration, which has a strong stochastic volatility. Mallat algorithm was employed for the multi-scale decomposition and single-scale reconstruction of the gas concentration time series. Then, it predicted every subsequence by sparsely weighted multi unstable ELM(extreme learning machine predictor within method SERELM(sparse ensemble regressors of ELM. At last, it superimposed the predicted values of these models to obtain the predicted values of the original sequence. The proposed method takes advantage of characteristics of multi scale analysis of wavelet transformation, accuracy and fast characteristics of ELM prediction and the generalization ability of L1 regularized selective ensemble learning method. The results show that the forecast accuracy has large increase by using the proposed method. The average relative error is 0.65%, the maximum relative error is 4.16% and the probability of relative error less than 1% reaches 0.785.

Prediction of hot spots in protein interfaces using a random forest model with hybrid features.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lin; Liu, Zhi-Ping; Zhang, Xiang-Sun; Chen, Luonan

2012-03-01

Prediction of hot spots in protein interfaces provides crucial information for the research on protein-protein interaction and drug design. Existing machine learning methods generally judge whether a given residue is likely to be a hot spot by extracting features only from the target residue. However, hot spots usually form a small cluster of residues which are tightly packed together at the center of protein interface. With this in mind, we present a novel method to extract hybrid features which incorporate a wide range of information of the target residue and its spatially neighboring residues, i.e. the nearest contact residue in the other face (mirror-contact residue) and the nearest contact residue in the same face (intra-contact residue). We provide a novel random forest (RF) model to effectively integrate these hybrid features for predicting hot spots in protein interfaces. Our method can achieve accuracy (ACC) of 82.4% and Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.482 in Alanine Scanning Energetics Database, and ACC of 77.6% and MCC of 0.429 in Binding Interface Database. In a comparison study, performance of our RF model exceeds other existing methods, such as Robetta, FOLDEF, KFC, KFC2, MINERVA and HotPoint. Of our hybrid features, three physicochemical features of target residues (mass, polarizability and isoelectric point), the relative side-chain accessible surface area and the average depth index of mirror-contact residues are found to be the main discriminative features in hot spots prediction. We also confirm that hot spots tend to form large contact surface areas between two interacting proteins. Source data and code are available at: http://www.aporc.org/doc/wiki/HotSpot.

Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

2017-09-01

Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

A hybrid approach to predict the relationship between tablet tensile strength and compaction pressure using analytical powder compression.

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, Ann-Sofie; Alderborn, Göran

2018-04-01

The objective was to present a hybrid approach to predict the strength-pressure relationship (SPR) of tablets using common compression parameters and a single measurement of tablet tensile strength. Experimental SPR were derived for six pharmaceutical powders with brittle and ductile properties and compared to predicted SPR based on a three-stage approach. The prediction was based on the Kawakita b -1 parameter and the in-die Heckel yield stress, an estimate of maximal tensile strength, and a parameter proportionality factor α. Three values of α were used to investigate the influence of the parameter on the SPR. The experimental SPR could satisfactorily be described by the three stage model, however for sodium bicarbonate the tensile strength plateau could not be observed experimentally. The shape of the predicted SPR was to a minor extent influenced by the Kawakita b -1 but the width of the linear region was highly influenced by α. An increased α increased the width of the linear region and thus also the maximal predicted tablet tensile strength. Furthermore, the correspondence between experimental and predicted SPR was influenced by the α value and satisfactory predictions were in general obtained for α = 4.1 indicating the predictive potential of the hybrid approach. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An accurate model for numerical prediction of piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid structure interaction problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amini, Y; Emdad, H; Farid, M

2014-01-01

Piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) from ambient energy sources, particularly vibrations, has attracted considerable interest throughout the last decade. Since fluid flow has a high energy density, it is one of the best candidates for PEH. Indeed, a piezoelectric energy harvesting process from the fluid flow takes the form of natural three-way coupling of the turbulent fluid flow, the electromechanical effect of the piezoelectric material and the electrical circuit. There are some experimental and numerical studies about piezoelectric energy harvesting from fluid flow in literatures. Nevertheless, accurate modeling for predicting characteristics of this three-way coupling has not yet been developed. In the present study, accurate modeling for this triple coupling is developed and validated by experimental results. A new code based on this modeling in an openFOAM platform is developed. (paper)

Hybrid biomass-wind power plant for reliable energy generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Navarro, A.; Alfonso, D.; Alvarez, C.; Ibanez, F.; Sanchez, C.; Segura, I.

2010-01-01

Massive implementation of renewable energy resources is a key element to reduce CO 2 emissions associated to electricity generation. Wind resources can provide an important alternative to conventional electricity generation mainly based on fossil fuels. However, wind generators are greatly affected by the restrictive operating rules of electricity markets because, as wind is naturally variable, wind generators may have serious difficulties on submitting accurate generation schedules on a day ahead basis, and on complying with scheduled obligations in real-time operation. In this paper, an innovative system combining a biomass gasification power plant, a gas storage system and stand-by generators to stabilize a generic 40 MW wind park is proposed and evaluated with real data. The wind park power production model is based on real data about power production of a Spanish wind park and a probabilistic approach to quantify fluctuations and so, power compensation needs. The hybrid wind-biomass system is analysed to obtain main hybrid system design parameters. This hybrid system can mitigate wind prediction errors and so provide a predictable source of electricity. An entire year cycle of hourly power compensations needs has been simulated deducing storage capacity, extra power needs of the biomass power plant and stand-by generation capacity to assure power compensation during critical peak hours with acceptable reliability. (author)

Physical and JIT Model Based Hybrid Modeling Approach for Building Thermal Load Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Iino, Yutaka; Murai, Masahiko; Murayama, Dai; Motoyama, Ichiro

Energy conservation in building fields is one of the key issues in environmental point of view as well as that of industrial, transportation and residential fields. The half of the total energy consumption in a building is occupied by HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems. In order to realize energy conservation of HVAC system, a thermal load prediction model for building is required. This paper propose a hybrid modeling approach with physical and Just-in-Time (JIT) model for building thermal load prediction. The proposed method has features and benefits such as, (1) it is applicable to the case in which past operation data for load prediction model learning is poor, (2) it has a self checking function, which always supervises if the data driven load prediction and the physical based one are consistent or not, so it can find if something is wrong in load prediction procedure, (3) it has ability to adjust load prediction in real-time against sudden change of model parameters and environmental conditions. The proposed method is evaluated with real operation data of an existing building, and the improvement of load prediction performance is illustrated.

The Hybrid of Classification Tree and Extreme Learning Machine for Permeability Prediction in Oil Reservoir

KAUST Repository

Prasetyo Utomo, Chandra

2011-06-01

Permeability is an important parameter connected with oil reservoir. Predicting the permeability could save millions of dollars. Unfortunately, petroleum engineers have faced numerous challenges arriving at cost-efficient predictions. Much work has been carried out to solve this problem. The main challenge is to handle the high range of permeability in each reservoir. For about a hundred year, mathematicians and engineers have tried to deliver best prediction models. However, none of them have produced satisfying results. In the last two decades, artificial intelligence models have been used. The current best prediction model in permeability prediction is extreme learning machine (ELM). It produces fairly good results but a clear explanation of the model is hard to come by because it is so complex. The aim of this research is to propose a way out of this complexity through the design of a hybrid intelligent model. In this proposal, the system combines classification and regression models to predict the permeability value. These are based on the well logs data. In order to handle the high range of the permeability value, a classification tree is utilized. A benefit of this innovation is that the tree represents knowledge in a clear and succinct fashion and thereby avoids the complexity of all previous models. Finally, it is important to note that the ELM is used as a final predictor. Results demonstrate that this proposed hybrid model performs better when compared with support vector machines (SVM) and ELM in term of correlation coefficient. Moreover, the classification tree model potentially leads to better communication among petroleum engineers concerning this important process and has wider implications for oil reservoir management efficiency.

Hybrid wavefront sensing and image correction algorithm for imaging through turbulent media

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chensheng; Robertson Rzasa, John; Ko, Jonathan; Davis, Christopher C.

2017-09-01

It is well known that passive image correction of turbulence distortions often involves using geometry-dependent deconvolution algorithms. On the other hand, active imaging techniques using adaptive optic correction should use the distorted wavefront information for guidance. Our work shows that a hybrid hardware-software approach is possible to obtain accurate and highly detailed images through turbulent media. The processing algorithm also takes much fewer iteration steps in comparison with conventional image processing algorithms. In our proposed approach, a plenoptic sensor is used as a wavefront sensor to guide post-stage image correction on a high-definition zoomable camera. Conversely, we show that given the ground truth of the highly detailed image and the plenoptic imaging result, we can generate an accurate prediction of the blurred image on a traditional zoomable camera. Similarly, the ground truth combined with the blurred image from the zoomable camera would provide the wavefront conditions. In application, our hybrid approach can be used as an effective way to conduct object recognition in a turbulent environment where the target has been significantly distorted or is even unrecognizable.

Metabolic robustness in young roots underpins a predictive model of maize hybrid performance in the field.

Science.gov (United States)

de Abreu E Lima, Francisco; Westhues, Matthias; Cuadros-Inostroza, Álvaro; Willmitzer, Lothar; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-04-01

Heterosis has been extensively exploited for yield gain in maize (Zea mays L.). Here we conducted a comparative metabolomics-based analysis of young roots from in vitro germinating seedlings and from leaves of field-grown plants in a panel of inbred lines from the Dent and Flint heterotic patterns as well as selected F 1 hybrids. We found that metabolite levels in hybrids were more robust than in inbred lines. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the most robust metabolites from roots and leaves explained up to 37 and 44% of the variance in the biomass from plants grown in two distinct field trials. In addition, a correlation-based analysis highlighted the trade-off between defense-related metabolites and hybrid performance. Therefore, our findings demonstrated the potential of metabolic profiles from young maize roots grown under tightly controlled conditions to predict hybrid performance in multiple field trials, thus bridging the greenhouse-field gap. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hybrid2 - The hybrid power system simulation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baring-Gould, E.I.; Green, H.J.; Dijk, V.A.P. van [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Manwell, J.F. [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

There is a large-scale need and desire for energy in remote communities, especially in the developing world; however the lack of a user friendly, flexible performance prediction model for hybrid power systems incorporating renewables hindered the analysis of hybrids as options to conventional solutions. A user friendly model was needed with the versatility to simulate the many system locations, widely varying hardware configurations, and differing control options for potential hybrid power systems. To meet these ends, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Massachusetts (UMass) developed the Hybrid2 software. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities, features, and functionality of the Hybrid2 code, discusses its validation and future plans. Model availability and technical support provided to Hybrid2 users are also discussed. 12 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukas Falat

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process. PMID:26977450

Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Ricardo de A

2010-12-01

This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid condenser model for real-time applications in performance monitoring, control and optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun; Zhang Guiqing

2009-01-01

In this paper, a simple, yet accurate hybrid modeling technique for condensers is presented. The method starts with fundamental physical principles but captures only few key operational characteristic parameters to predict the system performances. The advantages of the methods lie that linear or non-linear least-squares methods can be directly used to determine no more than four key operational characteristic parameters in the model, which can significantly reduce the computational burden. The developed model is verified with the experimental data taken from a pilot system. The testing results confirm that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating condenser with the maximum error of less than ±10%. The model technique proposed will have wide applications not only in condenser operating optimization, but also in performance assessment and fault detection and diagnosis.

Highly accurate prediction of food challenge outcome using routinely available clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

DunnGalvin, Audrey; Daly, Deirdre; Cullinane, Claire; Stenke, Emily; Keeton, Diane; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, Mich; Roberts, Graham C; Lucas, Jane; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B

2011-03-01

Serum specific IgE or skin prick tests are less useful at levels below accepted decision points. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict food challenge outcome by using routinely collected data in a diverse sample of children considered suitable for food challenge. The proto-algorithm was generated by using a limited data set from 1 service (phase 1). We retrospectively applied, evaluated, and modified the initial model by using an extended data set in another center (phase 2). Finally, we prospectively validated the model in a blind study in a further group of children undergoing food challenge for peanut, milk, or egg in the second center (phase 3). Allergen-specific models were developed for peanut, egg, and milk. Phase 1 (N = 429) identified 5 clinical factors associated with diagnosis of food allergy by food challenge. In phase 2 (N = 289), we examined the predictive ability of 6 clinical factors: skin prick test, serum specific IgE, total IgE minus serum specific IgE, symptoms, sex, and age. In phase 3 (N = 70), 97% of cases were accurately predicted as positive and 94% as negative. Our model showed an advantage in clinical prediction compared with serum specific IgE only, skin prick test only, and serum specific IgE and skin prick test (92% accuracy vs 57%, and 81%, respectively). Our findings have implications for the improved delivery of food allergy-related health care, enhanced food allergy-related quality of life, and economized use of health service resources by decreasing the number of food challenges performed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A hybrid Boundary Element Unstructured Transmission-line (BEUT) method for accurate 2D electromagnetic simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simmons, Daniel, E-mail: daniel.simmons@nottingham.ac.uk; Cools, Kristof; Sewell, Phillip

2016-11-01

Time domain electromagnetic simulation tools have the ability to model transient, wide-band applications, and non-linear problems. The Boundary Element Method (BEM) and the Transmission Line Modeling (TLM) method are both well established numerical techniques for simulating time-varying electromagnetic fields. The former surface based method can accurately describe outwardly radiating fields from piecewise uniform objects and efficiently deals with large domains filled with homogeneous media. The latter volume based method can describe inhomogeneous and non-linear media and has been proven to be unconditionally stable. Furthermore, the Unstructured TLM (UTLM) enables modelling of geometrically complex objects by using triangular meshes which removes staircasing and unnecessary extensions of the simulation domain. The hybridization of BEM and UTLM which is described in this paper is named the Boundary Element Unstructured Transmission-line (BEUT) method. It incorporates the advantages of both methods. The theory and derivation of the 2D BEUT method is described in this paper, along with any relevant implementation details. The method is corroborated by studying its correctness and efficiency compared to the traditional UTLM method when applied to complex problems such as the transmission through a system of Luneburg lenses and the modelling of antenna radomes for use in wireless communications. - Graphical abstract:.

Changing predictions, stable recognition: Children's representations of downward incline motion.

Science.gov (United States)

Hast, Michael; Howe, Christine

2017-11-01

Various studies to-date have demonstrated children hold ill-conceived expressed beliefs about the physical world such as that one ball will fall faster than another because it is heavier. At the same time, they also demonstrate accurate recognition of dynamic events. How these representations relate is still unresolved. This study examined 5- to 11-year-olds' (N = 130) predictions and recognition of motion down inclines. Predictions were typically in error, matching previous work, but children largely recognized correct events as correct and rejected incorrect ones. The results also demonstrate while predictions change with increasing age, recognition shows signs of stability. The findings provide further support for a hybrid model of object representations and argue in favour of stable core cognition existing alongside developmental changes. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Children's predictions of physical events show limitations in accuracy Their recognition of such events suggests children may use different knowledge sources in their reasoning What the present study adds? Predictions fluctuate more strongly than recognition, suggesting stable core cognition But recognition also shows some fluctuation, arguing for a hybrid model of knowledge representation. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Sequence-dependent theory of oligonucleotide hybridization kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marimuthu, Karthikeyan; Chakrabarti, Raj

2014-01-01

A theoretical approach to the prediction of the sequence and temperature-dependent rate constants for oligonucleotide hybridization reactions has been developed based on the theory of relaxation kinetics. One-sided and two-sided melting reaction mechanisms for oligonucleotide hybridization reactions have been considered, analyzed, modified, and compared to select a physically consistent as well as robust model for prediction of the relaxation times of DNA hybridization reactions that agrees with the experimental evidence. The temperature- and sequence-dependent parameters of the proposed model have been estimated using available experimental data. The relaxation time model that we developed has been combined with the nearest neighbor model of hybridization thermodynamics to estimate the temperature- and sequence-dependent rate constants of an oligonucleotide hybridization reaction. The model-predicted rate constants are compared to experimentally determined rate constants for the same oligonucleotide hybridization reactions. Finally, we consider a few important applications of kinetically controlled DNA hybridization reactions

Hybrid Model Predictive Control as a LFC solution in Hydropower Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donaisky Emerson

2015-01-01

Full Text Available For Electric Power System safety and stable operation, planning and analysis by using simulation environments are necessary. An important point for frequency stability analysis is, on one hand, an adequate representation of Load-Frequency Control (LFC loops and, on the other hand, the design of advanced control strategies to deal with the power system dynamic complexity. Therefore, in this paper we propose to represent the group turbine/penstock, found in hydropower plants, in a Piecewise Affine (PWA modelling structure. Based on such modelling, we also propose the use of a Hybrid Model Predictive algorithm to be use as a control law in LFC loops. Among the advantages of this PWA representation is the use of this model in the controller algorithm, thereby improving the Load-Frequency Control performance. Simulation results, on a 200 MW hydropower plant compares the performance of predictive control strategy presented with the classical PID control strategy in an isolated condition.

Accurate first-principles structures and energies of diversely bonded systems from an efficient density functional.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jianwei; Remsing, Richard C; Zhang, Yubo; Sun, Zhaoru; Ruzsinszky, Adrienn; Peng, Haowei; Yang, Zenghui; Paul, Arpita; Waghmare, Umesh; Wu, Xifan; Klein, Michael L; Perdew, John P

2016-09-01

One atom or molecule binds to another through various types of bond, the strengths of which range from several meV to several eV. Although some computational methods can provide accurate descriptions of all bond types, those methods are not efficient enough for many studies (for example, large systems, ab initio molecular dynamics and high-throughput searches for functional materials). Here, we show that the recently developed non-empirical strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-generalized gradient approximation (meta-GGA) within the density functional theory framework predicts accurate geometries and energies of diversely bonded molecules and materials (including covalent, metallic, ionic, hydrogen and van der Waals bonds). This represents a significant improvement at comparable efficiency over its predecessors, the GGAs that currently dominate materials computation. Often, SCAN matches or improves on the accuracy of a computationally expensive hybrid functional, at almost-GGA cost. SCAN is therefore expected to have a broad impact on chemistry and materials science.

An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU.

Science.gov (United States)

Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G

2018-04-01

Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the

Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

2011-01-01

A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

Ground-State Gas-Phase Structures of Inorganic Molecules Predicted by Density Functional Theory Methods

KAUST Repository

Minenkov, Yury

2017-11-29

We tested a battery of density functional theory (DFT) methods ranging from generalized gradient approximation (GGA) via meta-GGA to hybrid meta-GGA schemes as well as Møller–Plesset perturbation theory of the second order and a single and double excitation coupled-cluster (CCSD) theory for their ability to reproduce accurate gas-phase structures of di- and triatomic molecules derived from microwave spectroscopy. We obtained the most accurate molecular structures using the hybrid and hybrid meta-GGA approximations with B3PW91, APF, TPSSh, mPW1PW91, PBE0, mPW1PBE, B972, and B98 functionals, resulting in lowest errors. We recommend using these methods to predict accurate three-dimensional structures of inorganic molecules when intramolecular dispersion interactions play an insignificant role. The structures that the CCSD method predicts are of similar quality although at considerably larger computational cost. The structures that GGA and meta-GGA schemes predict are less accurate with the largest absolute errors detected with BLYP and M11-L, suggesting that these methods should not be used if accurate three-dimensional molecular structures are required. Because of numerical problems related to the integration of the exchange–correlation part of the functional and large scattering of errors, most of the Minnesota models tested, particularly MN12-L, M11, M06-L, SOGGA11, and VSXC, are also not recommended for geometry optimization. When maintaining a low computational budget is essential, the nonseparable gradient functional N12 might work within an acceptable range of error. As expected, the DFT-D3 dispersion correction had a negligible effect on the internuclear distances when combined with the functionals tested on nonweakly bonded di- and triatomic inorganic molecules. By contrast, the dispersion correction for the APF-D functional has been found to shorten the bonds significantly, up to 0.064 Å (AgI), in Ag halides, BaO, BaS, BaF, BaCl, Cu halides, and Li and

Hybrid Ventilation Air Flow Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiselberg, Per Kvols

The scope of this annex is therefore to obtain better knowledge of the use of hybrid ventilation technologies. The annex focus on development of control strategies for hybrid ventilation, on development of methods to predict hybrid ventilation performance in office buildings and on implementation...

Combination of Biorthogonal Wavelet Hybrid Kernel OCSVM with Feature Weighted Approach Based on EVA and GRA in Financial Distress Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Huang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Financial distress prediction plays an important role in the survival of companies. In this paper, a novel biorthogonal wavelet hybrid kernel function is constructed by combining linear kernel function with biorthogonal wavelet kernel function. Besides, a new feature weighted approach is presented based on economic value added (EVA and grey relational analysis (GRA. Considering the imbalance between financially distressed companies and normal ones, the feature weighted one-class support vector machine based on biorthogonal wavelet hybrid kernel (BWH-FWOCSVM is further put forward for financial distress prediction. The empirical study with real data from the listed companies on Growth Enterprise Market (GEM in China shows that the proposed approach has good performance.

Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

2014-06-01

Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

A New Approach for Accurate Prediction of Liquid Loading of Directional Gas Wells in Transition Flow or Turbulent Flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruiqing Ming

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Current common models for calculating continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity are established based on vertical wells and laminar flow without considering the influence of deviation angle and Reynolds number on liquid-carrying. With the increase of the directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow, the current common models cannot accurately predict the critical gas velocity of these wells. So we built a new model to predict continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity for directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow. It is shown from sensitivity analysis that the correction coefficient is mainly influenced by Reynolds number and deviation angle. With the increase of Reynolds number, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity increases first and then decreases. And with the increase of deviation angle, the critical liquid-carrying gas velocity gradually decreases. It is indicated from the case calculation analysis that the calculation error of this new model is less than 10%, where accuracy is much higher than those of current common models. It is demonstrated that the continuous liquid-carrying critical gas velocity of directional well in transition flow or turbulent flow can be predicted accurately by using this new model.

Yield performance and stability of CMS-based triticale hybrids.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühleisen, Jonathan; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Maurer, Hans Peter; Reif, Jochen Christoph

2015-02-01

CMS-based triticale hybrids showed only marginal midparent heterosis for grain yield and lower dynamic yield stability compared to inbred lines. Hybrids of triticale (×Triticosecale Wittmack) are expected to possess outstanding yield performance and increased dynamic yield stability. The objectives of the present study were to (1) examine the optimum choice of the biometrical model to compare yield stability of hybrids versus lines, (2) investigate whether hybrids exhibit a more pronounced grain yield performance and yield stability, and (3) study optimal strategies to predict yield stability of hybrids. Thirteen female and seven male parental lines and their 91 factorial hybrids as well as 30 commercial lines were evaluated for grain yield in up to 20 environments. Hybrids were produced using a cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS)-inducing cytoplasm that originated from Triticumtimopheevii Zhuk. We found that the choice of the biometrical model can cause contrasting results and concluded that a group-by-environment interaction term should be added to the model when estimating stability variance of hybrids and lines. midparent heterosis for grain yield was on average 3 % with a range from -15.0 to 11.5 %. No hybrid outperformed the best inbred line. Hybrids had, on average, lower dynamic yield stability compared to the inbred lines. Grain yield performance of hybrids could be predicted based on midparent values and general combining ability (GCA)-predicted values. In contrast, stability variance of hybrids could be predicted only based on GCA-predicted values. We speculated that negative effects of the used CMS cytoplasm might be the reason for the low performance and yield stability of the hybrids. For this purpose a detailed study on the reasons for the drawback of the currently existing CMS system in triticale is urgently required comprising also the search of potentially alternative hybridization systems.

Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

2018-05-01

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Hybrid Prediction Model of the Temperature Field of a Motorized Spindle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lixiu Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The thermal characteristics of a motorized spindle are the main determinants of its performance, and influence the machining accuracy of computer numerical control machine tools. It is important to accurately predict the thermal field of a motorized spindle during its operation to improve its thermal characteristics. This paper proposes a model to predict the temperature field of a high-speed and high-precision motorized spindle under different working conditions using a finite element model and test data. The finite element model considers the influence of the parameters of the cooling system and the lubrication system, and that of environmental conditions on the coefficient of heat transfer based on test data for the surface temperature of the motorized spindle. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize the coefficient of heat transfer of the spindle, and its temperature field is predicted using a three-dimensional model that employs this optimal coefficient. A prediction model of the 170MD30 temperature field of the motorized spindle is created and simulation data for the temperature field are compared with the test data. The results show that when the speed of the spindle is 10,000 rpm, the relative mean prediction error is 1.5%, and when its speed is 15,000 rpm, the prediction error is 3.6%. Therefore, the proposed prediction model can predict the temperature field of the motorized spindle with high accuracy.

Springback prediction in sheet metal forming process based on the hybrid SA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Yuqin; Jiang Hong; Wang Xiaochun; Li Fuzhu

2005-01-01

In terms of the intensive similarity between the sheet metal forming-springback process and that of the annealing of metals, it is suggested that the simulation of the sheet metal forming process is performed with the Nonlinear FEM and the springback prediction is implemented by solving the large-scale combinational optimum problem established on the base of the energy descending and balancing in deformed part. The BFGS-SA hybrid SA approach is proposed to solve this problem and improve the computing efficiency of the traditional SA and its capability of obtaining the global optimum solution. At the same time, the correlative annealing strategies for the SA algorithm are determined in here. By comparing the calculation results of sample part with those of experiment measurement at the specified sections, the rationality of the schedule of springback prediction used and the validity of the BFGS-SA algorithm proposed are verified

Accurate prediction of severe allergic reactions by a small set of environmental parameters (NDVI, temperature).

Science.gov (United States)

Notas, George; Bariotakis, Michail; Kalogrias, Vaios; Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

2015-01-01

Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions.

A Machine Learned Classifier That Uses Gene Expression Data to Accurately Predict Estrogen Receptor Status

Science.gov (United States)

Bastani, Meysam; Vos, Larissa; Asgarian, Nasimeh; Deschenes, Jean; Graham, Kathryn; Mackey, John; Greiner, Russell

2013-01-01

Background Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER) status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. Methods To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. Results This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. Conclusions Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions. PMID:24312637

Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

2015-05-01

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

A Mixed Logical Dynamical-Model Predictive Control (MLD-MPC Energy Management Control Strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs can be considered as a hybrid system (HS which includes the continuous state variable, discrete event, and operation constraint. Thus, a model predictive control (MPC strategy for PHEVs based on the mixed logical dynamical (MLD model and short-term vehicle speed prediction is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the mathematical model of the controlled PHEV is set-up to evaluate the energy consumption using the linearized models of core power components. Then, based on the recognition of driving intention and the past vehicle speed data, a nonlinear auto-regressive (NAR neural network structure is designed to predict the vehicle speed for known driving profiles of city buses and the predicted vehicle speed is used to calculate the total required torque. Next, a MLD model is established with appropriate constraints for six possible driving modes. By solving the objective function with the Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP algorithm, the optimal motor torque and the corresponding driving mode sequence within the speed prediction horizon can be obtained. Finally, the proposed energy control strategy shows substantial improvement in fuel economy in the simulation results.

Physics-based hybrid method for multiscale transport in porous media

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh, Mehrdad; Battiato, Ilenia

2017-09-01

Despite advancements in the development of multiscale models for flow and reactive transport in porous media, the accurate, efficient and physics-based coupling of multiple scales in hybrid models remains a major theoretical and computational challenge. Improving the predictivity of macroscale predictions by means of multiscale algorithms relative to classical at-scale models is the primary motivation for the development of multiscale simulators. Yet, very few are the quantitative studies that explicitly address the predictive capability of multiscale coupling algorithms as it is still generally not possible to have a priori estimates of the errors that are present when complex flow processes are modeled. We develop a nonintrusive pore-/continuum-scale hybrid model whose coupling error is bounded by the upscaling error, i.e. we build a predictive tightly coupled multiscale scheme. This is accomplished by slightly enlarging the subdomain where continuum-scale equations are locally invalid and analytically defining physics-based coupling conditions at the interfaces separating the two computational sub-domains, while enforcing state variable and flux continuity. The proposed multiscale coupling approach retains the advantages of domain decomposition approaches, including the use of existing solvers for each subdomain, while it gains flexibility in the choice of the numerical discretization method and maintains the coupling errors bounded by the upscaling error. We implement the coupling in finite volumes and test the proposed method by modeling flow and transport through a reactive channel and past an array of heterogeneously reactive cylinders.

Measuring solar reflectance - Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul [Heat Island Group, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

2010-09-15

Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective ''cool colored'' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland US latitudes, this metric R{sub E891BN} can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {<=} 5:12 [23 ]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear sky air mass one global horizontal (''AM1GH'') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer. (author)

Measuring solar reflectance Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

2010-05-14

Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective 'cool colored' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland U.S. latitudes, this metric RE891BN can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {le} 5:12 [23{sup o}]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool-roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear-sky air mass one global horizontal ('AM1GH') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer.

Size matters. The width and location of a ureteral stone accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jendeberg, Johan; Geijer, Haakan; Alshamari, Muhammed; Liden, Mats [Oerebro University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden); Cierzniak, Bartosz [Oerebro University, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Oerebro (Sweden)

2017-11-15

To determine how to most accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone using information in the diagnostic non-enhanced computed tomography (NECT) and to create predictive models with smaller stone size intervals than previously possible. Retrospectively 392 consecutive patients with ureteric stone on NECT were included. Three radiologists independently measured the stone size. Stone location, side, hydronephrosis, CRP, medical expulsion therapy (MET) and all follow-up radiology until stone expulsion or 26 weeks were recorded. Logistic regressions were performed with spontaneous stone passage in 4 weeks and 20 weeks as the dependent variable. The spontaneous passage rate in 20 weeks was 312 out of 392 stones, 98% in 0-2 mm, 98% in 3 mm, 81% in 4 mm, 65% in 5 mm, 33% in 6 mm and 9% in ≥6.5 mm wide stones. The stone size and location predicted spontaneous ureteric stone passage. The side and the grade of hydronephrosis only predicted stone passage in specific subgroups. Spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone can be predicted with high accuracy with the information available in the NECT. We present a prediction method based on stone size and location. (orig.)

Vegetative and adaptive traits predict different outcomes for restoration using hybrids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip Crystal

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract – Hybridization has been implicated as a driver of speciation, extinction, and invasiveness, but can also provide resistant breeding stock following epidemics. However, evaluating the appropriateness of hybrids for use in restoration programs is difficult. Past the F1 generation, the proportion of a progenitor’s genome can vary widely, as can the combinations of parental genomes. Detailed genetic analysis can reveal this information, but cannot expose phenotypic alterations due to heterosis, transgressive traits, or changes in metabolism or development. In addition, because evolution is often driven by extreme individuals, decisions based on phenotypic averages of hybrid classes may have unintended results. We demonstrate a strategy to evaluate hybrids for use in restoration by visualizing hybrid phenotypes across selected groups of traits relative to both progenitor species. Specifically, we used discriminant analysis to differentiate among butternut (Juglans cinerea L., black walnut (J. nigra L., and Japanese walnut (J. ailantifolia Carr. var. cordiformis using vegetative characters and then with functional adaptive traits associated with seedling performance. When projected onto the progenitor trait space, naturally occurring hybrids (J. ×bixbyi Rehd. between butternut and Japanese walnut showed introgression towards Japanese walnut at vegetative characters but exhibited a hybrid swarm at functional traits. Both results indicate that hybrids have morphological and ecological phenotypes that distinguish them from butternut, demonstrating a lack of ecological equivalency that should not be carried into restoration breeding efforts. Despite these discrepancies, some hybrids were projected into the space occupied by butternut seedlings’ 95% confidence ellipse, signifying that some hybrids were similar at the measured traits. Determining how to consistently identify these individuals is imperative for future breeding and species

The human interactome knowledge base (hint-kb): An integrative human protein interaction database enriched with predicted protein–protein interaction scores using a novel hybrid technique

KAUST Repository

Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.

2013-07-12

Proteins are the functional components of many cellular processes and the identification of their physical protein–protein interactions (PPIs) is an area of mature academic research. Various databases have been developed containing information about experimentally and computationally detected human PPIs as well as their corresponding annotation data. However, these databases contain many false positive interactions, are partial and only a few of them incorporate data from various sources. To overcome these limitations, we have developed HINT-KB (http://biotools.ceid.upatras.gr/hint-kb/), a knowledge base that integrates data from various sources, provides a user-friendly interface for their retrieval, cal-culatesasetoffeaturesofinterest and computesaconfidence score for every candidate protein interaction. This confidence score is essential for filtering the false positive interactions which are present in existing databases, predicting new protein interactions and measuring the frequency of each true protein interaction. For this reason, a novel machine learning hybrid methodology, called (Evolutionary Kalman Mathematical Modelling—EvoKalMaModel), was used to achieve an accurate and interpretable scoring methodology. The experimental results indicated that the proposed scoring scheme outperforms existing computational methods for the prediction of PPIs.

Model predictive control-based efficient energy recovery control strategy for regenerative braking system of hybrid electric bus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Liang; Zhang, Yuanbo; Yang, Chao; Yan, Bingjie; Marina Martinez, C.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A 7-degree-of-freedom model of hybrid electric vehicle with regenerative braking system is built. • A modified nonlinear model predictive control strategy is developed. • The particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the optimization problem. • The proposed control strategy is verified by simulation and hardware-in-loop tests. • Test results verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. - Abstract: As one of the main working modes, the energy recovered with regenerative braking system provides an effective approach so as to greatly improve fuel economy of hybrid electric bus. However, it is still a challenging issue to ensure braking stability while maximizing braking energy recovery. To solve this problem, an efficient energy recovery control strategy is proposed based on the modified nonlinear model predictive control method. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of the compound braking process of single-shaft parallel hybrid electric bus, a 7 degrees of freedom model of the vehicle longitudinal dynamics is built. Secondly, considering nonlinear characteristic of the vehicle model and the efficiency of regenerative braking system, the particle swarm optimization algorithm within the modified nonlinear model predictive control is adopted to optimize the torque distribution between regenerative braking system and pneumatic braking system at the wheels. So as to reduce the computational time of modified nonlinear model predictive control, a nearest point method is employed during the braking process. Finally, the simulation and hardware-in-loop test are carried out on road conditions with different tire–road adhesion coefficients, and the proposed control strategy is verified by comparing it with the conventional control method employed in the baseline vehicle controller. The simulation and hardware-in-loop test results show that the proposed strategy can ensure vehicle safety during emergency braking

Hybrid method to predict the resonant frequencies and to characterise dual band proximity coupled microstrip antennas

Science.gov (United States)

Varma, Ruchi; Ghosh, Jayanta

2018-06-01

A new hybrid technique, which is a combination of neural network (NN) and support vector machine, is proposed for designing of different slotted dual band proximity coupled microstrip antennas. Slots on the patch are employed to produce the second resonance along with size reduction. The proposed hybrid model provides flexibility to design the dual band antennas in the frequency range from 1 to 6 GHz. This includes DCS (1.71-1.88 GHz), PCS (1.88-1.99 GHz), UMTS (1.92-2.17 GHz), LTE2300 (2.3-2.4 GHz), Bluetooth (2.4-2.485 GHz), WiMAX (3.3-3.7 GHz), and WLAN (5.15-5.35 GHz, 5.725-5.825 GHz) bands applications. Also, the comparative study of this proposed technique is done with the existing methods like knowledge based NN and support vector machine. The proposed method is found to be more accurate in terms of % error and root mean square % error and the results are in good accord with the measured values.

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science.gov (United States)

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Szalanski, Allen L; Gaskin, John F.; Young, Nicholas E.; West, Amanda; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Tripodi, Amber

2014-01-01

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans (Homo sapiens) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis, was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica, showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Nonlinear Analysis and Preliminary Testing Results of a Hybrid Wing Body Center Section Test Article

Science.gov (United States)

Przekop, Adam; Jegley, Dawn C.; Rouse, Marshall; Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Wu, Hsi-Yung T.

2015-01-01

A large test article was recently designed, analyzed, fabricated, and successfully tested up to the representative design ultimate loads to demonstrate that stiffened composite panels with through-the-thickness reinforcement are a viable option for the next generation large transport category aircraft, including non-conventional configurations such as the hybrid wing body. This paper focuses on finite element analysis and test data correlation of the hybrid wing body center section test article under mechanical, pressure and combined load conditions. Good agreement between predictive nonlinear finite element analysis and test data is found. Results indicate that a geometrically nonlinear analysis is needed to accurately capture the behavior of the non-circular pressurized and highly-stressed structure when the design approach permits local buckling.

An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

Science.gov (United States)

De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

2016-08-01

Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Does the emergency surgery score accurately predict outcomes in emergent laparotomies?

Science.gov (United States)

Peponis, Thomas; Bohnen, Jordan D; Sangji, Naveen F; Nandan, Anirudh R; Han, Kelsey; Lee, Jarone; Yeh, D Dante; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A

2017-08-01

The emergency surgery score is a mortality-risk calculator for emergency general operation patients. We sought to examine whether the emergency surgery score predicts 30-day morbidity and mortality in a high-risk group of patients undergoing emergent laparotomy. Using the 2011-2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all patients who underwent emergent laparotomy using (1) the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program definition of "emergent," and (2) all Current Procedural Terminology codes denoting a laparotomy, excluding aortic aneurysm rupture. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to measure the correlation (c-statistic) between the emergency surgery score and (1) 30-day mortality, and (2) 30-day morbidity after emergent laparotomy. As sensitivity analyses, the correlation between the emergency surgery score and 30-day mortality was also evaluated in prespecified subgroups based on Current Procedural Terminology codes. A total of 26,410 emergent laparotomy patients were included. Thirty-day mortality and morbidity were 10.2% and 43.8%, respectively. The emergency surgery score correlated well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.84); scores of 1, 11, and 22 correlated with mortalities of 0.4%, 39%, and 100%, respectively. Similarly, the emergency surgery score correlated well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.74); scores of 0, 7, and 11 correlated with complication rates of 13%, 58%, and 79%, respectively. The morbidity rates plateaued for scores higher than 11. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the emergency surgery score effectively predicts mortality in patients undergoing emergent (1) splenic, (2) gastroduodenal, (3) intestinal, (4) hepatobiliary, or (5) incarcerated ventral hernia operation. The emergency surgery score accurately predicts outcomes in all types of emergent laparotomy patients and may prove valuable as a bedside decision

Hybrid Models of Alternative Current Filter for Hvdc

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ufa Ruslan A.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Based on a hybrid simulation concept of HVDC, the developed hybrid AC filter models, providing the sufficiently full and adequate modeling of all single continuous spectrum of quasi-steady-state and transient processes in the filter, are presented. The obtained results suggest that usage of the hybrid simulation approach is carried out a methodically accurate with guaranteed instrumental error solution of differential equation systems of mathematical models of HVDC.

A machine learned classifier that uses gene expression data to accurately predict estrogen receptor status.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meysam Bastani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selecting the appropriate treatment for breast cancer requires accurately determining the estrogen receptor (ER status of the tumor. However, the standard for determining this status, immunohistochemical analysis of formalin-fixed paraffin embedded samples, suffers from numerous technical and reproducibility issues. Assessment of ER-status based on RNA expression can provide more objective, quantitative and reproducible test results. METHODS: To learn a parsimonious RNA-based classifier of hormone receptor status, we applied a machine learning tool to a training dataset of gene expression microarray data obtained from 176 frozen breast tumors, whose ER-status was determined by applying ASCO-CAP guidelines to standardized immunohistochemical testing of formalin fixed tumor. RESULTS: This produced a three-gene classifier that can predict the ER-status of a novel tumor, with a cross-validation accuracy of 93.17±2.44%. When applied to an independent validation set and to four other public databases, some on different platforms, this classifier obtained over 90% accuracy in each. In addition, we found that this prediction rule separated the patients' recurrence-free survival curves with a hazard ratio lower than the one based on the IHC analysis of ER-status. CONCLUSIONS: Our efficient and parsimonious classifier lends itself to high throughput, highly accurate and low-cost RNA-based assessments of ER-status, suitable for routine high-throughput clinical use. This analytic method provides a proof-of-principle that may be applicable to developing effective RNA-based tests for other biomarkers and conditions.

In vitro transcription accurately predicts lac repressor phenotype in vivo in Escherichia coli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Almond Sochor

2014-07-01

Full Text Available A multitude of studies have looked at the in vivo and in vitro behavior of the lac repressor binding to DNA and effector molecules in order to study transcriptional repression, however these studies are not always reconcilable. Here we use in vitro transcription to directly mimic the in vivo system in order to build a self consistent set of experiments to directly compare in vivo and in vitro genetic repression. A thermodynamic model of the lac repressor binding to operator DNA and effector is used to link DNA occupancy to either normalized in vitro mRNA product or normalized in vivo fluorescence of a regulated gene, YFP. An accurate measurement of repressor, DNA and effector concentrations were made both in vivo and in vitro allowing for direct modeling of the entire thermodynamic equilibrium. In vivo repression profiles are accurately predicted from the given in vitro parameters when molecular crowding is considered. Interestingly, our measured repressor–operator DNA affinity differs significantly from previous in vitro measurements. The literature values are unable to replicate in vivo binding data. We therefore conclude that the repressor-DNA affinity is much weaker than previously thought. This finding would suggest that in vitro techniques that are specifically designed to mimic the in vivo process may be necessary to replicate the native system.

A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

2015-09-01

Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Compound Structure-Independent Activity Prediction in High-Dimensional Target Space.

Science.gov (United States)

Balfer, Jenny; Hu, Ye; Bajorath, Jürgen

2014-08-01

Profiling of compound libraries against arrays of targets has become an important approach in pharmaceutical research. The prediction of multi-target compound activities also represents an attractive task for machine learning with potential for drug discovery applications. Herein, we have explored activity prediction in high-dimensional target space. Different types of models were derived to predict multi-target activities. The models included naïve Bayesian (NB) and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers based upon compound structure information and NB models derived on the basis of activity profiles, without considering compound structure. Because the latter approach can be applied to incomplete training data and principally depends on the feature independence assumption, SVM modeling was not applicable in this case. Furthermore, iterative hybrid NB models making use of both activity profiles and compound structure information were built. In high-dimensional target space, NB models utilizing activity profile data were found to yield more accurate activity predictions than structure-based NB and SVM models or hybrid models. An in-depth analysis of activity profile-based models revealed the presence of correlation effects across different targets and rationalized prediction accuracy. Taken together, the results indicate that activity profile information can be effectively used to predict the activity of test compounds against novel targets. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, K W; Deng, C; Li, J P; Zhang, Y Y; Li, X Y; Wu, M C

2017-04-01

Tuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

Hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) and its application to predicting key process variables.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

2016-03-01

In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromosomal regions involved in hybrid performance and heterosis : their AFLP-based identification and practical use in prediction models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuylsteke, M.; Kuiper, M.; Stam, P.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a novel approach towards the prediction of hybrid performance and heterosis is presented. Here, we describe an approach based on: (i) the assessment of associations between AFLPÒ22 AFLPÒ is a registered trademark of Keygene N.V. ,33 The methylation AFLPÒ method is subject to a patent

Proposed prediction algorithms based on hybrid approach to deal with anomalies of RFID data in healthcare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Anny Leema

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The RFID technology has penetrated the healthcare sector due to its increased functionality, low cost, high reliability, and easy-to-use capabilities. It is being deployed for various applications and the data captured by RFID readers increase according to timestamp resulting in an enormous volume of data duplication, false positive, and false negative. The dirty data stream generated by the RFID readers is one of the main factors limiting the widespread adoption of RFID technology. In order to provide reliable data to RFID application, it is necessary to clean the collected data and this should be done in an effective manner before they are subjected to warehousing. The existing approaches to deal with anomalies are physical, middleware, and deferred approach. The shortcomings of existing approaches are analyzed and found that robust RFID system can be built by integrating the middleware and deferred approach. Our proposed algorithms based on hybrid approach are tested in the healthcare environment which predicts false positive, false negative, and redundant data. In this paper, healthcare environment is simulated using RFID and the data observed by RFID reader consist of anomalies false positive, false negative, and duplication. Experimental evaluation shows that our cleansing methods remove errors in RFID data more accurately and efficiently. Thus, with the aid of the planned data cleaning technique, we can bring down the healthcare costs, optimize business processes, streamline patient identification processes, and improve patient safety.

Accurate prediction of the dew points of acidic combustion gases by using an artificial neural network model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali

2011-01-01

This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.

A new hybrid method for the prediction of the remaining useful life of a lithium-ion battery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Yang; Fang, Huajing; Zhang, Yong

2017-01-01

Highlights: •The proposed prognostic method can make full use of historical information. •The method of obtaining historical error data is discussed in detail. •Comparative experiments based on data-driven and model-based methods are performed. •Battery working with different discharging currents is considered. -- Abstract: The lithium-ion battery has become the main power source of many electronic devices, it is necessary to know its state-of-health and remaining useful life to ensure the reliability of electronic device. In this paper, a novel hybrid method with the thought of error-correction is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery, which fuses the algorithms of unscented Kalman filter, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and relevance vector machine. Firstly, the unscented Kalman filter algorithm is adopted to obtain a prognostic result based on an estimated model and produce a raw error series. Secondly, a new error series is constructed by analyzing the decomposition results of the raw error series obtained by CEEMD method. Finally, the new error series is utilized by relevance vector machine regression model to predict the prognostic error which is adopted to correct the prognostic result obtained by unscented Kalman filter. Remaining useful life prediction experiments for batteries with different rated capacities and discharging currents are performed to show the high reliability of the proposed hybrid method.

Predicting Falls in People with Multiple Sclerosis: Fall History Is as Accurate as More Complex Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle H. Cameron

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Many people with MS fall, but the best method for identifying those at increased fall risk is not known. Objective. To compare how accurately fall history, questionnaires, and physical tests predict future falls and injurious falls in people with MS. Methods. 52 people with MS were asked if they had fallen in the past 2 months and the past year. Subjects were also assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence, Falls Efficacy Scale-International, and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12 questionnaires, the Expanded Disability Status Scale, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and computerized dynamic posturography and recorded their falls daily for the following 6 months with calendars. The ability of baseline assessments to predict future falls was compared using receiver operator curves and logistic regression. Results. All tests individually provided similar fall prediction (area under the curve (AUC 0.60–0.75. A fall in the past year was the best predictor of falls (AUC 0.75, sensitivity 0.89, specificity 0.56 or injurious falls (AUC 0.69, sensitivity 0.96, specificity 0.41 in the following 6 months. Conclusion. Simply asking people with MS if they have fallen in the past year predicts future falls and injurious falls as well as more complex, expensive, or time-consuming approaches.

Predictive cruise control in hybrid electric vehicles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keulen, T. van; Naus, M.J.G.; Jager, B. de; Molengraft, G.J.L. van de; Steinbuch, M.; Aneke, N.P.I.

2009-01-01

Deceleration rates have considerable influence on the fuel economy of hybrid electric vehicles. Given the vehicle characteristics and actual/measured operating conditions, as well as upcoming route information, optimal velocity trajectories can be constructed that maximize energy recovery. To

Accurate treatment of solids with the HSE screened hybrid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henderson, Thomas M.; Paier, Joachim; Scuseria, Gustavo E. [Department of Chemistry and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005 (United States); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005 (United States)

2011-04-15

Density functional theory (DFT) is the most widely used technique in the realm of first-principles electronic structure methods. Principally, this is because DFT in the Kohn-Sham (KS) formalism offers the appealing combination of relatively high accuracy and relatively low computational cost. Despite their great successes, traditional semilocal functionals fail to describe some important problems in solid state physics and materials science, the most conspicuous example being the notorious band gap problem. More sophisticated functionals providing greater accuracy without sacrificing computational efficiency are therefore needed. The Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof (HSE) screened hybrid density functional [J. Heyd, G. E. Scuseria, and M. Ernzerhof, J. Chem. Phys. 118, 8207 (2003); J. Heyd and G. E. Scuseria, J. Chem. Phys. 121, 1187 (2004)] successfully addresses some of the chief problems which plague semilocal functionals by including only the important parts of exact nonlocal Hartree-Fock-type exchange. This work discusses some of the concepts underlying HSE and provides illustrative examples highlighting the successes of HSE in numerous solid state applications. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Mfold web server for nucleic acid folding and hybridization prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Zuker, Michael

2003-07-01

The abbreviated name, 'mfold web server', describes a number of closely related software applications available on the World Wide Web (WWW) for the prediction of the secondary structure of single stranded nucleic acids. The objective of this web server is to provide easy access to RNA and DNA folding and hybridization software to the scientific community at large. By making use of universally available web GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces), the server circumvents the problem of portability of this software. Detailed output, in the form of structure plots with or without reliability information, single strand frequency plots and 'energy dot plots', are available for the folding of single sequences. A variety of 'bulk' servers give less information, but in a shorter time and for up to hundreds of sequences at once. The portal for the mfold web server is http://www.bioinfo.rpi.edu/applications/mfold. This URL will be referred to as 'MFOLDROOT'.

Country Selection Model for Sustainable Construction Businesses Using Hybrid of Objective and Subjective Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang-Wook Lee

2017-05-01

Full Text Available An important issue for international businesses and academia is selecting countries in which to expand in order to achieve entrepreneurial sustainability. This study develops a country selection model for sustainable construction businesses using both objective and subjective information. The objective information consists of 14 variables related to country risk and project performance in 32 countries over 25 years. This hybrid model applies subjective weighting from industrial experts to objective information using a fuzzy LinPreRa-based Analytic Hierarchy Process. The hybrid model yields a more accurate country selection compared to a purely objective information-based model in experienced countries. Interestingly, the hybrid model provides some different predictions with only subjective opinions in unexperienced countries, which implies that expert opinion is not always reliable. In addition, feedback from five experts in top international companies is used to validate the model’s completeness, effectiveness, generality, and applicability. The model is expected to aid decision makers in selecting better candidate countries that lead to sustainable business success.

The hybrid electric vehicle revolution, off road

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wood, B.E. [ePower Technologies (United States)

2004-07-01

In this presentation the author presents concepts and details of hybrid vehicles in general, including their benefits, then describes off-road hybrid vehicles. Hybrid vehicles have been experimented with for over a century. Demonstrator vehicles include a diesel-electric tractor, an electric lawn tractor, a hybrid snow thrower, and a hybrid wheel loader. A duty cycle for the loader is shown with battery-assisted acceleration, and regenerative braking. Both of these keep the size of the engine small, the loads on it less variable, thus improving fuel economy. A hybrid excavator and its duty cycle is shown. A fuel cell lift truck that is currently in design is illustrated. The author then describes the possibilities of the hydrogen economy where sourcing and infrastructure are yet to be demonstrated on a commercial scale. The author predicts that off-road hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be commercially viable five years before on-road applications. The author predicts hydrogen sourced from biogas, photovoltaics, and wind power. tabs, figs.

Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

2011-08-01

During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented.

GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS OF HYBRID PIG PREDICTED BY MEANS OF ASYMMETRIC S-CURVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goran Kušec

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The present study was performed on 24 pigs distributed over two MHS-genotypes (NN, Nn and two feeding regimes (intensive, restrictive. These pigs were investigated as the last of four trials in the experiment carried out by Kušec et al. (2005. The data on muscle and fatty tissue volumes were obtained by means of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI. For the growth depiction and for the predictions of live weight as well as of muscle and fat tissue, four models developed by Kušec et al. (2007 were used. These models were set up on the basis of the general form of asymmetric S-function. This function seemed to fit well to the data collected in the present study; but the inaccuracy of the models appeared to increase with age. At the age of 124 days, the estimated values of live weight, muscle and fat volumes were close to the actual values measured in the group of intensively fed pigs; in the group of restrictively fed pigs live weight and muscle volume were underestimated while the volume of fat was overestimated. At the time of the last MR imaging (154 days of age, live weight and muscle volume was to some extent overestimated in the pigs fed intensively and underestimated in those fed restrictively. The volume of fatty tissue was estimated with favourable accuracy in all investigated groups of pigs. For further predictions, two approaches were used. In the first approach to predict individual live weights, at the age of 124 days, the predictions were fairly accurate for most of the pigs, falling in the range within one week; 4 of them being estimated falsely by more than ±7 days. Generally, when expressed as absolute value, the average misestimate was ~4 days in all groups, except for the restrictively fed MHS-gene carrier pigs which were estimated with 6 days difference on the average. At the age of 154 days, the predictions were to some extent less accurate; 7 pigs (in total were incorrectly predicted by more than a week. The prediction accuracy

Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Daucourt, Mia C; Schatschneider, Christopher; Connor, Carol M; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Hart, Sara A

2018-01-01

Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF), a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD). Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79-10.40 years). At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), they had a mean age of 13.21 years ( SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47-16.63 years). The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting) and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF's predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the hybrid model of RD

Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunli Wu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

Enhancing corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete structures with hybrid fiber reinforced concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blunt, J.; Jen, G.; Ostertag, C.P.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Reinforced concrete beams were subjected to cyclic flexural loading. • Hybrid fiber reinforced composites were effective in reducing corrosion rates. • Crack resistance due to fibers increased corrosion resistance of steel rebar. • Galvanic corrosion measurements underestimated corrosion rates. • Polarization resistance measurements predicted mass loss more accurately. - Abstract: Service loads well below the yield strength of steel reinforcing bars lead to cracking of reinforced concrete. This paper investigates whether the crack resistance of Hybrid Fiber Reinforced Concrete (HyFRC) reduces the corrosion rate of steel reinforcing bars in concrete after cyclic flexural loading. The reinforcing bars were extracted to examine their surface for corrosion and compare microcell and macrocell corrosion mass loss estimates against direct gravimetric measurements. A delay in corrosion initiation and lower active corrosion rates were observed in the HyFRC beam specimens when compared to reinforced specimens containing plain concrete matrices cycled at the same flexural load

Surface temperatures in New York City: Geospatial data enables the accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghandehari, Masoud; Emig, Thorsten; Aghamohamadnia, Milad

2018-02-02

Despite decades of research seeking to derive the urban energy budget, the dynamics of thermal exchange in the densely constructed environment is not yet well understood. Using New York City as a study site, we present a novel hybrid experimental-computational approach for a better understanding of the radiative heat transfer in complex urban environments. The aim of this work is to contribute to the calculation of the urban energy budget, particularly the stored energy. We will focus our attention on surface thermal radiation. Improved understanding of urban thermodynamics incorporating the interaction of various bodies, particularly in high rise cities, will have implications on energy conservation at the building scale, and for human health and comfort at the urban scale. The platform presented is based on longwave hyperspectral imaging of nearly 100 blocks of Manhattan, in addition to a geospatial radiosity model that describes the collective radiative heat exchange between multiple buildings. Despite assumptions in surface emissivity and thermal conductivity of buildings walls, the close comparison of temperatures derived from measurements and computations is promising. Results imply that the presented geospatial thermodynamic model of urban structures can enable accurate and high resolution analysis of instantaneous urban surface temperatures.

A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdalena Ydreborg

Full Text Available Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis = -12.17+ (age × 0.11 + (BMI (kg/m(2 × 0.23 + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol×(-0.013 + (Platelet count (x10(9/L × (-0.018 + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96. The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98. In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Hybridization of powertrain and downsizing of IC engine - A way to reduce fuel consumption and pollutant emissions - Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katrasnik, Tomaz

2007-01-01

The aim of this two part paper is to present the results of extensive simulation and analytical analysis of the energy conversion efficiency in parallel hybrid powertrains. The simulation approach is based on an accurate and fast forward facing simulation model of a parallel hybrid powertrain and a conventional internal combustion engine powertrain. The model of the ICE is based on a verified dynamic model that provides sufficiently small time steps to model adequately the dynamics of electric systems during transient test cycles. Models of the electrical devices enable computation of the instantaneous energy consumption, production and storage as well as computation of the instantaneous energy losses and component efficiencies. Moreover, the paper offers an analytical approach based on the energy balance in order to analyze and predict the energy conversion efficiency of hybrid powertrains. The analysis covers a broad range of parallel hybrid powertrain configurations from mild to full hybrids. Combined simulation and analytical analysis enables deep insight into the energy conversion phenomena in hybrid powertrains. The paper reveals the conditions and influences that lead to improved fuel economy of hybrid powertrains with the emphasis on determining the optimum hybridization ratio. The theoretical background, simulation program and brief analysis of one test cycle are presented in Part 1, whereas the extensive analysis and parametric study is presented in the companion paper, Part 2

Hybrid ARIMAX quantile regression method for forecasting short term electricity consumption in east java

Science.gov (United States)

Prastuti, M.; Suhartono; Salehah, NA

2018-04-01

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity in Indonesia has been increasing in the last past years. Furthermore, the high electricity usage by people at different times leads to the occurrence of heteroscedasticity issue. Estimate the electricity supply that could fulfilled the community’s need is very important, but the heteroscedasticity issue often made electricity forecasting hard to be done. An accurate forecast of electricity consumptions is one of the key challenges for energy provider to make better resources and service planning and also take control actions in order to balance the electricity supply and demand for community. In this paper, hybrid ARIMAX Quantile Regression (ARIMAX-QR) approach was proposed to predict the short-term electricity consumption in East Java. This method will also be compared to time series regression using RMSE, MAPE, and MdAPE criteria. The data used in this research was the electricity consumption per half-an-hour data during the period of September 2015 to April 2016. The results show that the proposed approach can be a competitive alternative to forecast short-term electricity in East Java. ARIMAX-QR using lag values and dummy variables as predictors yield more accurate prediction in both in-sample and out-sample data. Moreover, both time series regression and ARIMAX-QR methods with addition of lag values as predictor could capture accurately the patterns in the data. Hence, it produces better predictions compared to the models that not use additional lag variables.

A hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation approach to predict hourly energy consumption and generation by a cluster of Net Zero Energy Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garshasbi, Samira; Kurnitski, Jarek; Mohammadi, Yousef

2016-01-01

Graphical abstract: The energy consumption and renewable generation in a cluster of NZEBs are modeled by a novel hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation approach and used for the prediction of instantaneous and cumulative net energy balances and hourly amount of energy taken from and supplied to the central energy grid. - Highlights: • Hourly energy consumption and generation by a cluster of NZEBs was simulated. • Genetic Algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation approach were employed. • Dampening effect of energy used by a cluster of buildings was demonstrated. • Hourly amount of energy taken from and supplied to the grid was simulated. • Results showed that NZEB cluster was 63.5% grid dependant on annual bases. - Abstract: Employing a hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach, energy consumption and renewable energy generation in a cluster of Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) was thoroughly investigated with hourly simulation. Moreover, the cumulative energy consumption and generation of the whole cluster and each individual building within the simulation space were accurately monitored and reported. The results indicate that the developed simulation algorithm is able to predict the total instantaneous and cumulative amount of energy taken from and supplied to the central energy grid over any time period. During the course of simulation, about 60–100% of total daily generated renewable energy was consumed by NZEBs and up to 40% of that was fed back into the central energy grid as surplus energy. The minimum grid dependency of the cluster was observed in June and July where 11.2% and 9.9% of the required electricity was supplied from the central energy grid, respectively. On the other hand, the NZEB cluster was strongly grid dependant in January and December by importing 70.7% and 76.1% of its required energy demand via the central energy grid, in the order given. Simulation results revealed that the cluster was 63

A hybrid self-adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization–Genetic Algorithm–Radial Basis Function model for annual electricity demand prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Shiwei; Wang, Ke; Wei, Yi-Ming

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A hybrid self-adaptive PSO–GA-RBF model is proposed for electricity demand prediction. • Each mixed-coding particle is composed by two coding parts of binary and real. • Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan. • The proposed model has a simpler structure or higher estimating precision than other ANN models. • No matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly. - Abstract: The present study proposes a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimized Radial Basis Function (PSO–GA-RBF) neural network for prediction of annual electricity demand. In the model, each mixed-coding particle (or chromosome) is composed of two coding parts, binary and real, which optimizes the structure of the RBF by GA operation and the parameters of the basis and weights by a PSO–GA implementation. Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan by using optimized networks. The results shows that (1) the proposed PSO–GA-RBF model has a simpler network structure (fewer hidden neurons) or higher estimation precision than other selected ANN models; and (2) no matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly at average annual growth rates of about 9.7–11.5%. By 2020, the electricity demand in the planning scenario, the highest among the scenarios, will be 95.85 billion kW h. The lowest demand is estimated for the business-as-usual scenario, and will be 88.45 billion kW h

An Unscented Kalman-Particle Hybrid Filter for Space Object Tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Raihan A. V, Dilshad; Chakravorty, Suman

2018-03-01

Optimal and consistent estimation of the state of space objects is pivotal to surveillance and tracking applications. However, probabilistic estimation of space objects is made difficult by the non-Gaussianity and nonlinearity associated with orbital mechanics. In this paper, we present an unscented Kalman-particle hybrid filtering framework for recursive Bayesian estimation of space objects. The hybrid filtering scheme is designed to provide accurate and consistent estimates when measurements are sparse without incurring a large computational cost. It employs an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) for estimation when measurements are available. When the target is outside the field of view (FOV) of the sensor, it updates the state probability density function (PDF) via a sequential Monte Carlo method. The hybrid filter addresses the problem of particle depletion through a suitably designed filter transition scheme. To assess the performance of the hybrid filtering approach, we consider two test cases of space objects that are assumed to undergo full three dimensional orbital motion under the effects of J 2 and atmospheric drag perturbations. It is demonstrated that the hybrid filters can furnish fast, accurate and consistent estimates outperforming standard UKF and particle filter (PF) implementations.

A New Hybrid Approach for Wind Speed Prediction Using Fast Block Least Mean Square Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ummuhan Basaran Filik

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A new hybrid wind speed prediction approach, which uses fast block least mean square (FBLMS algorithm and artificial neural network (ANN method, is proposed. FBLMS is an adaptive algorithm which has reduced complexity with a very fast convergence rate. A hybrid approach is proposed which uses two powerful methods: FBLMS and ANN method. In order to show the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach, seven-year real hourly collected wind speed data sets belonging to Turkish State Meteorological Service of Bozcaada and Eskisehir regions are used. Two different ANN structures are used to compare with this approach. The first six-year data is handled as a train set; the remaining one-year hourly data is handled as test data. Mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE are used for performance evaluations. It is shown for various cases that the performance of the new hybrid approach gives better results than the different conventional ANN structure.

Predicting fuelwood prices in Greece with the use of ARIMA models, artificial neural networks and a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koutroumanidis, Theodoros; Ioannou, Konstantinos; Arabatzis, Garyfallos

2009-01-01

Throughout history, energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country. The large-scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues, have led many countries to look for new, alternative energy sources. Biomass and fuelwood in particular, constitutes a major renewable energy source (RES) that can make a significant contribution, as a substitute for oil. This paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity, and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in Greece. Following this, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood (from broadleaved and coniferous species) produced by Greek state forest farms. The use of the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results, thus enabling decision-makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market. (author)

Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmati, Mehdi

2017-08-01

Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

Perceived Physician-informed Weight Status Predicts Accurate Weight Self-Perception and Weight Self-Regulation in Low-income, African American Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Charlie L; Strayhorn, Gregory; Moore, Sandra; Goldman, Brian; Martin, Michelle Y

2016-01-01

Obese African American women under-appraise their body mass index (BMI) classification and report fewer weight loss attempts than women who accurately appraise their weight status. This cross-sectional study examined whether physician-informed weight status could predict weight self-perception and weight self-regulation strategies in obese women. A convenience sample of 118 low-income women completed a survey assessing demographic characteristics, comorbidities, weight self-perception, and weight self-regulation strategies. BMI was calculated during nurse triage. Binary logistic regression models were performed to test hypotheses. The odds of obese accurate appraisers having been informed about their weight status were six times greater than those of under-appraisers. The odds of those using an "approach" self-regulation strategy having been physician-informed were four times greater compared with those using an "avoidance" strategy. Physicians are uniquely positioned to influence accurate weight self-perception and adaptive weight self-regulation strategies in underserved women, reducing their risk for obesity-related morbidity.

Hybrid Ventilation in New and Retrofitted Office Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiselberg, Per

The scope of this annex is to obtain better knowledge of the use of hybrid ventilation technologies. The annex will focus on development of control strategies for hybrid ventilation, on development of methods to predict hybrid ventilation performance in office buildings and on development...

Recent Advances on Hybrid Intelligent Systems

CERN Document Server

Melin, Patricia; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2013-01-01

This book presents recent advances on hybrid intelligent systems using soft computing techniques for intelligent control and robotics, pattern recognition, time series prediction and optimization of complex problems. Soft Computing (SC) consists of several intelligent computing paradigms, including fuzzy logic, neural networks, and bio-inspired optimization algorithms, which can be used to produce powerful hybrid intelligent systems. The book is organized in five main parts, which contain groups of papers around a similar subject. The first part consists of papers with the main theme of hybrid intelligent systems for control and robotics, which are basically state of the art papers that propose new models and concepts, which can be the basis for achieving intelligent control and mobile robotics. The second part contains papers with the main theme of hybrid intelligent systems for pattern recognition and time series prediction, which are basically papers using nature-inspired techniques, like evolutionary algo...

Predicted osteotomy planes are accurate when using patient-specific instrumentation for total knee arthroplasty in cadavers: a descriptive analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kievit, A J; Dobbe, J G G; Streekstra, G J; Blankevoort, L; Schafroth, M U

2018-06-01

Malalignment of implants is a major source of failure during total knee arthroplasty. To achieve more accurate 3D planning and execution of the osteotomy cuts during surgery, the Signature (Biomet, Warsaw) patient-specific instrumentation (PSI) was used to produce pin guides for the positioning of the osteotomy blocks by means of computer-aided manufacture based on CT scan images. The research question of this study is: what is the transfer accuracy of osteotomy planes predicted by the Signature PSI system for preoperative 3D planning and intraoperative block-guided pin placement to perform total knee arthroplasty procedures? The transfer accuracy achieved by using the Signature PSI system was evaluated by comparing the osteotomy planes predicted preoperatively with the osteotomy planes seen intraoperatively in human cadaveric legs. Outcomes were measured in terms of translational and rotational errors (varus, valgus, flexion, extension and axial rotation) for both tibia and femur osteotomies. Average translational errors between the osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and the actual osteotomy planes achieved was 0.8 mm (± 0.5 mm) for the tibia and 0.7 mm (± 4.0 mm) for the femur. Average rotational errors in relation to predicted and achieved osteotomy planes were 0.1° (± 1.2°) of varus and 0.4° (± 1.7°) of anterior slope (extension) for the tibia, and 2.8° (± 2.0°) of varus and 0.9° (± 2.7°) of flexion and 1.4° (± 2.2°) of external rotation for the femur. The similarity between osteotomy planes predicted using the Signature system and osteotomy planes actually achieved was excellent for the tibia although some discrepancies were seen for the femur. The use of 3D system techniques in TKA surgery can provide accurate intraoperative guidance, especially for patients with deformed bone, tailored to individual patients and ensure better placement of the implant.

Predictability and interpretability of hybrid link-level crash frequency models for urban arterials compared to cluster-based and general negative binomial regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Najaf, Pooya; Duddu, Venkata R; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

2018-03-01

Machine learning (ML) techniques have higher prediction accuracy compared to conventional statistical methods for crash frequency modelling. However, their black-box nature limits the interpretability. The objective of this research is to combine both ML and statistical methods to develop hybrid link-level crash frequency models with high predictability and interpretability. For this purpose, M5' model trees method (M5') is introduced and applied to classify the crash data and then calibrate a model for each homogenous class. The data for 1134 and 345 randomly selected links on urban arterials in the city of Charlotte, North Carolina was used to develop and validate models, respectively. The outputs from the hybrid approach are compared with the outputs from cluster-based negative binomial regression (NBR) and general NBR models. Findings indicate that M5' has high predictability and is very reliable to interpret the role of different attributes on crash frequency compared to other developed models.

The draft genome of MD-2 pineapple using hybrid error correction of long reads

Science.gov (United States)

Redwan, Raimi M.; Saidin, Akzam; Kumar, S. Vijay

2016-01-01

The introduction of the elite pineapple variety, MD-2, has caused a significant market shift in the pineapple industry. Better productivity, overall increased in fruit quality and taste, resilience to chilled storage and resistance to internal browning are among the key advantages of the MD-2 as compared with its previous predecessor, the Smooth Cayenne. Here, we present the genome sequence of the MD-2 pineapple (Ananas comosus (L.) Merr.) by using the hybrid sequencing technology from two highly reputable platforms, i.e. the PacBio long sequencing reads and the accurate Illumina short reads. Our draft genome achieved 99.6% genome coverage with 27,017 predicted protein-coding genes while 45.21% of the genome was identified as repetitive elements. Furthermore, differential expression of ripening RNASeq library of pineapple fruits revealed ethylene-related transcripts, believed to be involved in regulating the process of non-climacteric pineapple fruit ripening. The MD-2 pineapple draft genome serves as an example of how a complex heterozygous genome is amenable to whole genome sequencing by using a hybrid technology that is both economical and accurate. The genome will make genomic applications more feasible as a medium to understand complex biological processes specific to pineapple. PMID:27374615

Mini-Mental Status Examination: a short form of MMSE was as accurate as the original MMSE in predicting dementia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Lomholt, Rikke Kirstine; Kreiner, Svend

2006-01-01

.4%), and positive predictive value (71.0%) but equal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cross-validation on follow-up data confirmed the results. CONCLUSION: A short, valid MMSE, which is as sensitive and specific as the original MMSE for the screening of cognitive impairments and dementia......OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the properties of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) with the purpose of improving the efficiencies of the methods of screening for cognitive impairment and dementia. A specific purpose was to determine whether an abbreviated version would be as accurate...... is attractive for research and clinical practice, particularly if predictive power can be enhanced by combining the short MMSE with neuropsychological tests or informant reports....

Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gusfan Halik

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for nuclear energy consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Ling; Yu, Lean; Wang, Shuai; Li, Jianping; Wang, Shouyang

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating EEMD and LSSVR is proposed. ► The hybrid ensemble method is useful to predict time series with high volatility. ► The ensemble method can be used for both one-step and multi-step ahead forecasting. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) is proposed for nuclear energy consumption forecasting, based on the principle of “decomposition and ensemble”. This hybrid ensemble learning paradigm is formulated specifically to address difficulties in modeling nuclear energy consumption, which has inherently high volatility, complexity and irregularity. In the proposed hybrid ensemble learning paradigm, EEMD, as a competitive decomposition method, is first applied to decompose original data of nuclear energy consumption (i.e. a difficult task) into a number of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of original data (i.e. some relatively easy subtasks). Then LSSVR, as a powerful forecasting tool, is implemented to predict all extracted IMFs independently. Finally, these predicted IMFs are aggregated into an ensemble result as final prediction, using another LSSVR. For illustration and verification purposes, the proposed learning paradigm is used to predict nuclear energy consumption in China. Empirical results demonstrate that the novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm can outperform some other popular forecasting models in both level prediction and directional forecasting, indicating that it is a promising tool to predict complex time series with high volatility and irregularity.

Hybrid model predictive control of a residential HVAC system with on-site thermal energy generation and storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorentini, Massimo; Wall, Josh; Ma, Zhenjun; Braslavsky, Julio H.; Cooper, Paul

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A comprehensive approach to managing thermal energy in residential buildings. • Solar-assisted HVAC system with on-site energy generation and storage. • Mixed logic-dynamical building model identified using experimental data. • Design and implementation of a logic-dynamical model predictive control strategy. • MPC applied to the Net-Zero Energy house winner of the Solar Decathlon China 2013. - Abstract: This paper describes the development, implementation and experimental investigation of a Hybrid Model Predictive Control (HMPC) strategy to control solar-assisted heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with on-site thermal energy generation and storage. A comprehensive approach to the thermal energy management of a residential building is presented to optimise the scheduling of the available thermal energy resources to meet a comfort objective. The system has a hybrid nature with both continuous variables and discrete, logic-driven operating modes. The proposed control strategy is organized in two hierarchical levels. At the high-level, an HMPC controller with a 24-h prediction horizon and a 1-h control step is used to select the operating mode of the HVAC system. At the low-level, each operating mode is optimised using a 1-h rolling prediction horizon with a 5-min control step. The proposed control strategy has been practically implemented on the Building Management and Control System (BMCS) of a Net Zero-Energy Solar Decathlon house. This house features a sophisticated HVAC system comprising of an air-based photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collector and a phase change material (PCM) thermal storage integrated with the air-handling unit (AHU) of a ducted reverse-cycle heat pump system. The simulation and experimental results demonstrated the high performance achievable using an HMPC approach to optimising complex multimode HVAC systems in residential buildings, illustrating efficient selection of the appropriate operating modes

Hybrid-PIC Computer Simulation of the Plasma and Erosion Processes in Hall Thrusters

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, Richard R.; Katz, Ira; Mikellides, Ioannis G.; Gamero-Castano, Manuel

2010-01-01

HPHall software simulates and tracks the time-dependent evolution of the plasma and erosion processes in the discharge chamber and near-field plume of Hall thrusters. HPHall is an axisymmetric solver that employs a hybrid fluid/particle-in-cell (Hybrid-PIC) numerical approach. HPHall, originally developed by MIT in 1998, was upgraded to HPHall-2 by the Polytechnic University of Madrid in 2006. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has continued the development of HPHall-2 through upgrades to the physical models employed in the code, and the addition of entirely new ones. Primary among these are the inclusion of a three-region electron mobility model that more accurately depicts the cross-field electron transport, and the development of an erosion sub-model that allows for the tracking of the erosion of the discharge chamber wall. The code is being developed to provide NASA science missions with a predictive tool of Hall thruster performance and lifetime that can be used to validate Hall thrusters for missions.

Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

Science.gov (United States)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2002-01-01

NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

2014-12-01

Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

2018-03-01

Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error model predicts the exposure of

Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mia C. Daucourt

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF, a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD. Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79–10.40 years. At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF, they had a mean age of 13.21 years (SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47–16.63 years. The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF’s predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the

Do Skilled Elementary Teachers Hold Scientific Conceptions and Can They Accurately Predict the Type and Source of Students' Preconceptions of Electric Circuits?

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jing-Wen

2016-01-01

Holding scientific conceptions and having the ability to accurately predict students' preconceptions are a prerequisite for science teachers to design appropriate constructivist-oriented learning experiences. This study explored the types and sources of students' preconceptions of electric circuits. First, 438 grade 3 (9 years old) students were…

Analytical solution to the hybrid diffusion-transport equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nanneh, M.M.; Williams, M.M.R.

1986-01-01

A special integral equation was derived in previous work using a hybrid diffusion-transport theory method for calculating the flux distribution in slab lattices. In this paper an analytical solution of this equation has been carried out on a finite reactor lattice. The analytical results of disadvantage factors are shown to be accurate in comparison with the numerical results and accurate transport theory calculations. (author)

StackInsights: Cognitive Learning for Hybrid Cloud Readiness

OpenAIRE

Qiao, Mu; Bathen, Luis; Génot, Simon-Pierre; Lee, Sunhwan; Routray, Ramani

2017-01-01

Hybrid cloud is an integrated cloud computing environment utilizing a mix of public cloud, private cloud, and on-premise traditional IT infrastructures. Workload awareness, defined as a detailed full range understanding of each individual workload, is essential in implementing the hybrid cloud. While it is critical to perform an accurate analysis to determine which workloads are appropriate for on-premise deployment versus which workloads can be migrated to a cloud off-premise, the assessment...

Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for an Accurate and Interpretable Prediction of Material Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Tian; Grossman, Jeffrey C.

2018-04-01

The use of machine learning methods for accelerating the design of crystalline materials usually requires manually constructed feature vectors or complex transformation of atom coordinates to input the crystal structure, which either constrains the model to certain crystal types or makes it difficult to provide chemical insights. Here, we develop a crystal graph convolutional neural networks framework to directly learn material properties from the connection of atoms in the crystal, providing a universal and interpretable representation of crystalline materials. Our method provides a highly accurate prediction of density functional theory calculated properties for eight different properties of crystals with various structure types and compositions after being trained with 1 04 data points. Further, our framework is interpretable because one can extract the contributions from local chemical environments to global properties. Using an example of perovskites, we show how this information can be utilized to discover empirical rules for materials design.

FUMAC-84. A hybrid PCI analytical tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matheson, J.E.; Walton, L.A.

1984-01-01

''FUMAC-84'', a new computer code currently under development at Babcock and Wilcox, will be used to analyze PCMI in light water reactor fuel rods. This is a hybrid code in the sense that the pellet behaviour is predicted from deterministic models which incorporate the large data base being generated by the international fuel performance programs (OVERRAMP, SUPER-RAMP, NFIR, etc.), while the cladding is modelled using finite elements. The fuel cracking and relocation model developed for FUMAC is semi-empirical and includes data up to 35 GWd/mtU and linear heat rates ranging from 100 to 700 W/Cm. With this model the onset of cladding ridging has been accurately predicted for steady-state operation. Transient behaviour of the pellet is still under investigation and the model is being enhanced to include these effects. The cladding model integrates the mechanical damage over a power history by solving the finite element assumed displacement problem in a quasistatic manner. Early work on FUMAC-84 has been directed at the development and benchmarking of the interim code. The purpose of the interim code is to provide a vehicle to proof out the deterministic pellet models which have been developed. To date the cracking model and the relocation model have been benchmarked. The thermal model for the pellet was developed by fitting data from several Halden experiments. The ability to accurately predict cladding ridging behaviour has been used to test how well the pellet swelling, densification and compliance models work in conjunction with fuel cladding material models. Reasonable results have been achieved for the steady-state cases while difficulty has been encountered in trying to reproduce transient results. Current work includes an effort to improve the ability of the models to handle transients well. (author)

A Hybrid Optimization Method for Solving Bayesian Inverse Problems under Uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Zhang

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the application of a new method, the Finite Difference and Stochastic Gradient (Hybrid method, for history matching in reservoir models. History matching is one of the processes of solving an inverse problem by calibrating reservoir models to dynamic behaviour of the reservoir in which an objective function is formulated based on a Bayesian approach for optimization. The goal of history matching is to identify the minimum value of an objective function that expresses the misfit between the predicted and measured data of a reservoir. To address the optimization problem, we present a novel application using a combination of the stochastic gradient and finite difference methods for solving inverse problems. The optimization is constrained by a linear equation that contains the reservoir parameters. We reformulate the reservoir model's parameters and dynamic data by operating the objective function, the approximate gradient of which can guarantee convergence. At each iteration step, we obtain the relatively 'important' elements of the gradient, which are subsequently substituted by the values from the Finite Difference method through comparing the magnitude of the components of the stochastic gradient, which forms a new gradient, and we subsequently iterate with the new gradient. Through the application of the Hybrid method, we efficiently and accurately optimize the objective function. We present a number numerical simulations in this paper that show that the method is accurate and computationally efficient.

Hybrid unscented particle filter based state-of-charge determination for lead-acid batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Yanqing

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of cell SOC (state of charge) is important for the safety and functional capabilities of the battery energy storage application system. This paper presents a hybrid UPF (unscented particle filter) based SOC determination combined model for batteries. To simulate the entire dynamic electrical characteristics of batteries, a novel combined state space model, which takes current as a control input and let SOC and two constructed parameters as state variables, is advanced to represent cell behavior. Besides that, an improved UPF method is used to evaluate cell SOC. Taking lead-acid batteries for example, we apply the established model for test. Results show that the evolved combined state space cell model simulates battery dynamics robustly with high accuracy and the prediction value based on the improved UPF method converges to the real SOC very quickly within the error of±2%. - Highlights: • This paper introduces a hybrid UPF based SOC determination model for batteries. • The evolved model takes SOC and two constructed parameters as state variables. • The combined state space cell model simulates battery dynamics robustly. • NLMS based method is employed to lessen search space and fasten convergence process. • Novel model converges to the real SOC robustly and quickly with fewer particles

Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S; Shirley, Eric L; Prendergast, David

2017-03-03

Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (ΔSCF) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The ΔSCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle ΔSCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

Development of a method to accurately calculate the Dpb and quickly predict the strength of a chemical bond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Xia; Zhao, Dong-Xia; Yang, Zhong-Zhi

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A method from new respect to characterize and measure the bond strength is proposed. ► We calculate the D pb of a series of various bonds to justify our approach. ► A quite good linear relationship of the D pb with the bond lengths for series of various bonds is shown. ► Take the prediction of strengths of C–H and N–H bonds for base pairs in DNA as a practical application of our method. - Abstract: A new approach to characterize and measure bond strength has been developed. First, we propose a method to accurately calculate the potential acting on an electron in a molecule (PAEM) at the saddle point along a chemical bond in situ, denoted by D pb . Then, a direct method to quickly evaluate bond strength is established. We choose some familiar molecules as models for benchmarking this method. As a practical application, the D pb of base pairs in DNA along C–H and N–H bonds are obtained for the first time. All results show that C 7 –H of A–T and C 8 –H of G–C are the relatively weak bonds that are the injured positions in DNA damage. The significance of this work is twofold: (i) A method is developed to calculate D pb of various sizable molecules in situ quickly and accurately; (ii) This work demonstrates the feasibility to quickly predict the bond strength in macromolecules

A hybrid convection scheme for use in non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Kuell

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The correct representation of convection in numerical weather prediction (NWP models is essential for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Due to its small horizontal scale convection usually has to be parameterized, e.g. by mass flux convection schemes. Classical schemes originally developed for use in coarse grid NWP models assume zero net convective mass flux, because the whole circulation of a convective cell is confined to the local grid column and all convective mass fluxes cancel out. However, in contemporary NWP models with grid sizes of a few kilometers this assumption becomes questionable, because here convection is partially resolved on the grid. To overcome this conceptual problem we propose a hybrid mass flux convection scheme (HYMACS in which only the convective updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized. The generation of the larger scale environmental subsidence, which may cover several grid columns, is transferred to the grid scale equations. This means that the convection scheme now has to generate a net convective mass flux exerting a direct dynamical forcing to the grid scale model via pressure gradient forces. The hybrid convection scheme implemented into the COSMO model of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD is tested in an idealized simulation of a sea breeze circulation initiating convection in a realistic manner. The results are compared with analogous simulations with the classical Tiedtke and Kain-Fritsch convection schemes.

Stochastic linear hybrid systems: Modeling, estimation, and application

Science.gov (United States)

Seah, Chze Eng

Hybrid systems are dynamical systems which have interacting continuous state and discrete state (or mode). Accurate modeling and state estimation of hybrid systems are important in many applications. We propose a hybrid system model, known as the Stochastic Linear Hybrid System (SLHS), to describe hybrid systems with stochastic linear system dynamics in each mode and stochastic continuous-state-dependent mode transitions. We then develop a hybrid estimation algorithm, called the State-Dependent-Transition Hybrid Estimation (SDTHE) algorithm, to estimate the continuous state and discrete state of the SLHS from noisy measurements. It is shown that the SDTHE algorithm is more accurate or more computationally efficient than existing hybrid estimation algorithms. Next, we develop a performance analysis algorithm to evaluate the performance of the SDTHE algorithm in a given operating scenario. We also investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of the SDTHE algorithm. The proposed SLHS model and SDTHE algorithm are illustrated to be useful in several applications. In Air Traffic Control (ATC), to facilitate implementations of new efficient operational concepts, accurate modeling and estimation of aircraft trajectories are needed. In ATC, an aircraft's trajectory can be divided into a number of flight modes. Furthermore, as the aircraft is required to follow a given flight plan or clearance, its flight mode transitions are dependent of its continuous state. However, the flight mode transitions are also stochastic due to navigation uncertainties or unknown pilot intents. Thus, we develop an aircraft dynamics model in ATC based on the SLHS. The SDTHE algorithm is then used in aircraft tracking applications to estimate the positions/velocities of aircraft and their flight modes accurately. Next, we develop an aircraft conformance monitoring algorithm to detect any deviations of aircraft trajectories in ATC that might compromise safety. In this application, the SLHS

Towards the accurate electronic structure descriptions of typical high-constant dielectrics

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ting-Ting; Sun, Qing-Qing; Li, Ye; Guo, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Peng; Ding, Shi-Jin; Zhang, David Wei

2011-05-01

High-constant dielectrics have gained considerable attention due to their wide applications in advanced devices, such as gate oxides in metal-oxide-semiconductor devices and insulators in high-density metal-insulator-metal capacitors. However, the theoretical investigations of these materials cannot fulfil the requirement of experimental development, especially the requirement for the accurate description of band structures. We performed first-principles calculations based on the hybrid density functionals theory to investigate several typical high-k dielectrics such as Al2O3, HfO2, ZrSiO4, HfSiO4, La2O3 and ZrO2. The band structures of these materials are well described within the framework of hybrid density functionals theory. The band gaps of Al2O3, HfO2, ZrSiO4, HfSiO4, La2O3 and ZrO2are calculated to be 8.0 eV, 5.6 eV, 6.2 eV, 7.1 eV, 5.3 eV and 5.0 eV, respectively, which are very close to the experimental values and far more accurate than those obtained by the traditional generalized gradient approximation method.

Readmission prediction via deep contextual embedding of clinical concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Cao; Ma, Tengfei; Dieng, Adji B; Blei, David M; Wang, Fei

2018-01-01

Hospital readmission costs a lot of money every year. Many hospital readmissions are avoidable, and excessive hospital readmissions could also be harmful to the patients. Accurate prediction of hospital readmission can effectively help reduce the readmission risk. However, the complex relationship between readmission and potential risk factors makes readmission prediction a difficult task. The main goal of this paper is to explore deep learning models to distill such complex relationships and make accurate predictions. We propose CONTENT, a deep model that predicts hospital readmissions via learning interpretable patient representations by capturing both local and global contexts from patient Electronic Health Records (EHR) through a hybrid Topic Recurrent Neural Network (TopicRNN) model. The experiment was conducted using the EHR of a real world Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) cohort of 5,393 patients. The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in readmission prediction (e.g. 0.6103 ± 0.0130 vs. second best 0.5998 ± 0.0124 in terms of ROC-AUC). The derived patient representations were further utilized for patient phenotyping. The learned phenotypes provide more precise understanding of readmission risks. Embedding both local and global context in patient representation not only improves prediction performance, but also brings interpretable insights of understanding readmission risks for heterogeneous chronic clinical conditions. This is the first of its kind model that integrates the power of both conventional deep neural network and the probabilistic generative models for highly interpretable deep patient representation learning. Experimental results and case studies demonstrate the improved performance and interpretability of the model.

A hybrid nudging-ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation. Part I: application in the Lorenz system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Lei

2012-05-01

Full Text Available A hybrid data assimilation approach combining nudging and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for dynamic analysis and numerical weather prediction is explored here using the non-linear Lorenz three-variable model system with the goal of a smooth, continuous and accurate data assimilation. The hybrid nudging-EnKF (HNEnKF computes the hybrid nudging coefficients from the flow-dependent, time-varying error covariance matrix from the EnKF's ensemble forecasts. It extends the standard diagonal nudging terms to additional off-diagonal statistical correlation terms for greater inter-variable influence of the innovations in the model's predictive equations to assist in the data assimilation process. The HNEnKF promotes a better fit of an analysis to data compared to that achieved by either nudging or incremental analysis update (IAU. When model error is introduced, it produces similar or better root mean square errors compared to the EnKF while minimising the error spikes/discontinuities created by the intermittent EnKF. It provides a continuous data assimilation with better inter-variable consistency and improved temporal smoothness than that of the EnKF. Data assimilation experiments are also compared to the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS. The HNEnKF has similar or better temporal smoothness than that of the EnKS, and with much smaller central processing unit (CPU time and data storage requirements.

Energy, economic and environmental performance simulation of a hybrid renewable microgeneration system with neural network predictive control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgueniy Entchev

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in various applications has grown significantly over the years. This paper compares an ANN based approach with a conventional on-off control applied to the operation of a ground source heat pump/photovoltaic thermal system serving a single house located in Ottawa (Canada for heating and cooling purposes. The hybrid renewable microgeneration system was investigated using the dynamic simulation software TRNSYS. A controller for predicting the future room temperature was developed in the MATLAB environment and six ANN control logics were analyzed.The comparison was performed in terms of ability to maintain the desired indoor comfort levels, primary energy consumption, operating costs and carbon dioxide equivalent emissions during a week of the heating period and a week of the cooling period. The results showed that the ANN approach is potentially able to alleviate the intensity of thermal discomfort associated with overheating/overcooling phenomena, but it could cause an increase in unmet comfort hours. The analysis also highlighted that the ANNs based strategies could reduce the primary energy consumption (up to around 36%, the operating costs (up to around 81% as well as the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (up to around 36%. Keywords: Hybrid microgeneration system, Ground source heat pump, Photovoltaic thermal, Artificial neural network, Predictive control, Energy saving

Charging and discharging tests for obtaining an accurate dynamic electro-thermal model of high power lithium-ion pack system for hybrid and EV applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Camacho, Oscar Mauricio Forero; Nørgård, Per Bromand

2013-01-01

This paper presents a battery test platform including two Li-ion battery designed for hybrid and EV applications, and charging/discharging tests under different operating conditions carried out for developing an accurate dynamic electro-thermal model of a high power Li-ion battery pack system....... The aim of the tests has been to study the impact of the battery degradation and to find out the dynamic characteristics of the cells including nonlinear open circuit voltage, series resistance and parallel transient circuit at different charge/discharge currents and cell temperature. An equivalent...... circuit model, based on the runtime battery model and the Thevenin circuit model, with parameters obtained from the tests and depending on SOC, current and temperature has been implemented in MATLAB/Simulink and Power Factory. A good alignment between simulations and measurements has been found....

Accuracy of two optical chlorophyll meters in predicting chemical composition and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability of Brachiaria hybrid, Megathyrsus maximus, and Paspalum atratum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin P. Hughes

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of 2 optical chlorophyll meters: FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI and Yara N-Tester, in predicting neutral detergent fibre (NDF, acid detergent fibre (ADF, acid detergent lignin (ADL, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability (IVOMD of 3 tropical grasses. Optical chlorophyll measurements were taken at 3 stages (4, 8 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Brachiaria hybrid, and Megathyrsus maximus and at 6 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Paspalum atratum (cv. Ubon. Optical chlorophyll measurements showed the highest correlation (r = 0.57 to 0.85 with NDF concentration. The FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI was better than the Yara N-Tester in predicting NDF (R2 = 0.70 and ADF (R2 = 0.79 concentrations in Brachiaria hybrid and NDF (R2 = 0.79 in M. maximus. Similarly, FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI produced better estimates of 24 h IVOMD (IVOMD24h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.81 and IVOMD48h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.65 and M. maximus (R2 = 0.75. However, these prediction models had relatively low concordance correlation coefficients, i.e., CCC >0.90, but random errors were the main source of bias. It was, therefore, concluded that both optical chlorophyll meters were poor and unreliable predictors of ADIN and ADL concentrations. Overall, the FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI shows potential to produce useful estimates of IVOMD24h and ADF in Brachiaria hybrid and IVOMD48h and NDF concentrations in M. maximus.

Design procedures of hybrid PV/SMES system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamad, Ismail; El-Sayas, M. A.

2006-01-01

This paper presents accurate procedures to determine the design parameters of an autonomous hybrid PV/SMES system. Integrating Superconductive magnetic energy storage as a recent storage technology with photovoltaic power system enhances the PV output utilization during the solar radiation fluctuations period. this is because of SMES fast response to any PV output fluctuation. The load demand is supplied either from PV plant or through SMES or from both. Imposed to the technical and economical constrains, the optimum solar cells area and the proper capacity and rating of SMES system are assessed. Regarding solar radiation profile, clear and cloudy days are accurately considered for investigation. Three indices are suggested to express the cloudy and fluctuations conditions. These indices represent the non-utilized PV energy due to clouds (x), fluctuation period (T f ) and location of fluctuations period(t s t). The incremental changes in the design parameters are computed for any variation in these indices. Differentiation between the role of BS and SMES in affecting the results is determined and quantitatively analyzed. The results of clear day condition with SMES are the bas quantities for these changes. Complete analysis of the most effective parameters is presented. Eventually, mathematical models are deduced for each parameter which assists in predicting its behavior against the independent variable.(Author)

Transgressive Hybrids as Hopeful Monsters.

Science.gov (United States)

Dittrich-Reed, Dylan R; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M

2013-06-01

The origin of novelty is a critical subject for evolutionary biologists. Early geneticists speculated about the sudden appearance of new species via special macromutations, epitomized by Goldschmidt's infamous "hopeful monster". Although these ideas were easily dismissed by the insights of the Modern Synthesis, a lingering fascination with the possibility of sudden, dramatic change has persisted. Recent work on hybridization and gene exchange suggests an underappreciated mechanism for the sudden appearance of evolutionary novelty that is entirely consistent with the principles of modern population genetics. Genetic recombination in hybrids can produce transgressive phenotypes, "monstrous" phenotypes beyond the range of parental populations. Transgressive phenotypes can be products of epistatic interactions or additive effects of multiple recombined loci. We compare several epistatic and additive models of transgressive segregation in hybrids and find that they are special cases of a general, classic quantitative genetic model. The Dobzhansky-Muller model predicts "hopeless" monsters, sterile and inviable transgressive phenotypes. The Bateson model predicts "hopeful" monsters with fitness greater than either parental population. The complementation model predicts both. Transgressive segregation after hybridization can rapidly produce novel phenotypes by recombining multiple loci simultaneously. Admixed populations will also produce many similar recombinant phenotypes at the same time, increasing the probability that recombinant "hopeful monsters" will establish true-breeding evolutionary lineages. Recombination is not the only (or even most common) process generating evolutionary novelty, but might be the most credible mechanism for sudden appearance of new forms.

A New Hybrid Method for Improving the Performance of Myocardial Infarction Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hojatollah Hamidi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Myocardial Infarction, also known as heart attack, normally occurs due to such causes as smoking, family history, diabetes, and so on. It is recognized as one of the leading causes of death in the world. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of classification models in order to predict Myocardial Infarction, using a feature selection method that includes Forward Selection and Genetic Algorithm. Materials & Methods: The Myocardial Infarction data set used in this study contains the information related to 519 visitors to Shahid Madani Specialized Hospital of Khorramabad, Iran. This data set includes 33 features. The proposed method includes a hybrid feature selection method in order to enhance the performance of classification algorithms. The first step of this method selects the features using Forward Selection. At the second step, the selected features were given to a genetic algorithm, in order to select the best features. Classification algorithms entail Ada Boost, Naïve Bayes, J48 decision tree and simpleCART are applied to the data set with selected features, for predicting Myocardial Infarction. Results: The best results have been achieved after applying the proposed feature selection method, which were obtained via simpleCART and J48 algorithms with the accuracies of 96.53% and 96.34%, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the results, the performances of classification algorithms are improved. So, applying the proposed feature selection method, along with classification algorithms seem to be considered as a confident method with respect to predicting the Myocardial Infarction.

Toward accurate tooth segmentation from computed tomography images using a hybrid level set model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gan, Yangzhou; Zhao, Qunfei [Department of Automation, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Key Laboratory of System Control and Information Processing, Ministry of Education of China, Shanghai 200240 (China); Xia, Zeyang, E-mail: zy.xia@siat.ac.cn, E-mail: jing.xiong@siat.ac.cn; Hu, Ying [Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518055 (China); Xiong, Jing, E-mail: zy.xia@siat.ac.cn, E-mail: jing.xiong@siat.ac.cn [Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 510855 (China); Zhang, Jianwei [TAMS, Department of Informatics, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 22527 (Germany)

2015-01-15

Purpose: A three-dimensional (3D) model of the teeth provides important information for orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning. Tooth segmentation is an essential step in generating the 3D digital model from computed tomography (CT) images. The aim of this study is to develop an accurate and efficient tooth segmentation method from CT images. Methods: The 3D dental CT volumetric images are segmented slice by slice in a two-dimensional (2D) transverse plane. The 2D segmentation is composed of a manual initialization step and an automatic slice by slice segmentation step. In the manual initialization step, the user manually picks a starting slice and selects a seed point for each tooth in this slice. In the automatic slice segmentation step, a developed hybrid level set model is applied to segment tooth contours from each slice. Tooth contour propagation strategy is employed to initialize the level set function automatically. Cone beam CT (CBCT) images of two subjects were used to tune the parameters. Images of 16 additional subjects were used to validate the performance of the method. Volume overlap metrics and surface distance metrics were adopted to assess the segmentation accuracy quantitatively. The volume overlap metrics were volume difference (VD, mm{sup 3}) and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC, %). The surface distance metrics were average symmetric surface distance (ASSD, mm), RMS (root mean square) symmetric surface distance (RMSSSD, mm), and maximum symmetric surface distance (MSSD, mm). Computation time was recorded to assess the efficiency. The performance of the proposed method has been compared with two state-of-the-art methods. Results: For the tested CBCT images, the VD, DSC, ASSD, RMSSSD, and MSSD for the incisor were 38.16 ± 12.94 mm{sup 3}, 88.82 ± 2.14%, 0.29 ± 0.03 mm, 0.32 ± 0.08 mm, and 1.25 ± 0.58 mm, respectively; the VD, DSC, ASSD, RMSSSD, and MSSD for the canine were 49.12 ± 9.33 mm{sup 3}, 91.57 ± 0.82%, 0.27 ± 0.02 mm, 0

Toward accurate tooth segmentation from computed tomography images using a hybrid level set model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, Yangzhou; Zhao, Qunfei; Xia, Zeyang; Hu, Ying; Xiong, Jing; Zhang, Jianwei

2015-01-01

Purpose: A three-dimensional (3D) model of the teeth provides important information for orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning. Tooth segmentation is an essential step in generating the 3D digital model from computed tomography (CT) images. The aim of this study is to develop an accurate and efficient tooth segmentation method from CT images. Methods: The 3D dental CT volumetric images are segmented slice by slice in a two-dimensional (2D) transverse plane. The 2D segmentation is composed of a manual initialization step and an automatic slice by slice segmentation step. In the manual initialization step, the user manually picks a starting slice and selects a seed point for each tooth in this slice. In the automatic slice segmentation step, a developed hybrid level set model is applied to segment tooth contours from each slice. Tooth contour propagation strategy is employed to initialize the level set function automatically. Cone beam CT (CBCT) images of two subjects were used to tune the parameters. Images of 16 additional subjects were used to validate the performance of the method. Volume overlap metrics and surface distance metrics were adopted to assess the segmentation accuracy quantitatively. The volume overlap metrics were volume difference (VD, mm 3 ) and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC, %). The surface distance metrics were average symmetric surface distance (ASSD, mm), RMS (root mean square) symmetric surface distance (RMSSSD, mm), and maximum symmetric surface distance (MSSD, mm). Computation time was recorded to assess the efficiency. The performance of the proposed method has been compared with two state-of-the-art methods. Results: For the tested CBCT images, the VD, DSC, ASSD, RMSSSD, and MSSD for the incisor were 38.16 ± 12.94 mm 3 , 88.82 ± 2.14%, 0.29 ± 0.03 mm, 0.32 ± 0.08 mm, and 1.25 ± 0.58 mm, respectively; the VD, DSC, ASSD, RMSSSD, and MSSD for the canine were 49.12 ± 9.33 mm 3 , 91.57 ± 0.82%, 0.27 ± 0.02 mm, 0.28 ± 0.03 mm

Hybrid Neural Network Approach Based Tool for the Modelling of Photovoltaic Panels

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Antonino Laudani

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A hybrid neural network approach based tool for identifying the photovoltaic one-diode model is presented. The generalization capabilities of neural networks are used together with the robustness of the reduced form of one-diode model. Indeed, from the studies performed by the authors and the works present in the literature, it was found that a direct computation of the five parameters via multiple inputs and multiple outputs neural network is a very difficult task. The reduced form consists in a series of explicit formulae for the support to the neural network that, in our case, is aimed at predicting just two parameters among the five ones identifying the model: the other three parameters are computed by reduced form. The present hybrid approach is efficient from the computational cost point of view and accurate in the estimation of the five parameters. It constitutes a complete and extremely easy tool suitable to be implemented in a microcontroller based architecture. Validations are made on about 10000 PV panels belonging to the California Energy Commission database.

A Motion-Adaptive Deinterlacer via Hybrid Motion Detection and Edge-Pattern Recognition

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He-Yuan Lin

2008-03-01

Full Text Available A novel motion-adaptive deinterlacing algorithm with edge-pattern recognition and hybrid motion detection is introduced. The great variety of video contents makes the processing of assorted motion, edges, textures, and the combination of them very difficult with a single algorithm. The edge-pattern recognition algorithm introduced in this paper exhibits the flexibility in processing both textures and edges which need to be separately accomplished by line average and edge-based line average before. Moreover, predicting the neighboring pixels for pattern analysis and interpolation further enhances the adaptability of the edge-pattern recognition unit when motion detection is incorporated. Our hybrid motion detection features accurate detection of fast and slow motion in interlaced video and also the motion with edges. Using only three fields for detection also renders higher temporal correlation for interpolation. The better performance of our deinterlacing algorithm with higher content-adaptability and less memory cost than the state-of-the-art 4-field motion detection algorithms can be seen from the subjective and objective experimental results of the CIF and PAL video sequences.

A Motion-Adaptive Deinterlacer via Hybrid Motion Detection and Edge-Pattern Recognition

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Li Hsin-Te

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract A novel motion-adaptive deinterlacing algorithm with edge-pattern recognition and hybrid motion detection is introduced. The great variety of video contents makes the processing of assorted motion, edges, textures, and the combination of them very difficult with a single algorithm. The edge-pattern recognition algorithm introduced in this paper exhibits the flexibility in processing both textures and edges which need to be separately accomplished by line average and edge-based line average before. Moreover, predicting the neighboring pixels for pattern analysis and interpolation further enhances the adaptability of the edge-pattern recognition unit when motion detection is incorporated. Our hybrid motion detection features accurate detection of fast and slow motion in interlaced video and also the motion with edges. Using only three fields for detection also renders higher temporal correlation for interpolation. The better performance of our deinterlacing algorithm with higher content-adaptability and less memory cost than the state-of-the-art 4-field motion detection algorithms can be seen from the subjective and objective experimental results of the CIF and PAL video sequences.

Critical review of on-board capacity estimation techniques for lithium-ion batteries in electric and hybrid electric vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Marongiu, Andrea; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-05-01

This work provides an overview of available methods and algorithms for on-board capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries. An accurate state estimation for battery management systems in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles is becoming more essential due to the increasing attention paid to safety and lifetime issues. Different approaches for the estimation of State-of-Charge, State-of-Health and State-of-Function are discussed and analyzed by many authors and researchers in the past. On-board estimation of capacity in large lithium-ion battery packs is definitely one of the most crucial challenges of battery monitoring in the aforementioned vehicles. This is mostly due to high dynamic operation and conditions far from those used in laboratory environments as well as the large variation in aging behavior of each cell in the battery pack. Accurate capacity estimation allows an accurate driving range prediction and accurate calculation of a battery's maximum energy storage capability in a vehicle. At the same time it acts as an indicator for battery State-of-Health and Remaining Useful Lifetime estimation.

Accurate Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Using Bioinformatics Algorithms

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Hajar Shafiee

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular disease is one of the main causes of death in developed and Third World countries. According to the statement of the World Health Organization, it is predicted that death due to heart disease will rise to 23 million by 2030. According to the latest statistics reported by Iran’s Minister of health, 3.39% of all deaths are attributed to cardiovascular diseases and 19.5% are related to myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to predict coronary artery disease using data mining algorithms. Methods: In this study, various bioinformatics algorithms, such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, clustering, etc., were used to predict coronary heart disease. The data used in this study was taken from several valid databases (including 14 data. Results: In this research, data mining techniques can be effectively used to diagnose different diseases, including coronary artery disease. Also, for the first time, a prediction system based on support vector machine with the best possible accuracy was introduced. Conclusion: The results showed that among the features, thallium scan variable is the most important feature in the diagnosis of heart disease. Designation of machine prediction models, such as support vector machine learning algorithm can differentiate between sick and healthy individuals with 100% accuracy.

Fast and accurate semantic annotation of bioassays exploiting a hybrid of machine learning and user confirmation.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Alex M; Bunin, Barry A; Litterman, Nadia K; Schürer, Stephan C; Visser, Ubbo

2014-01-01

Bioinformatics and computer aided drug design rely on the curation of a large number of protocols for biological assays that measure the ability of potential drugs to achieve a therapeutic effect. These assay protocols are generally published by scientists in the form of plain text, which needs to be more precisely annotated in order to be useful to software methods. We have developed a pragmatic approach to describing assays according to the semantic definitions of the BioAssay Ontology (BAO) project, using a hybrid of machine learning based on natural language processing, and a simplified user interface designed to help scientists curate their data with minimum effort. We have carried out this work based on the premise that pure machine learning is insufficiently accurate, and that expecting scientists to find the time to annotate their protocols manually is unrealistic. By combining these approaches, we have created an effective prototype for which annotation of bioassay text within the domain of the training set can be accomplished very quickly. Well-trained annotations require single-click user approval, while annotations from outside the training set domain can be identified using the search feature of a well-designed user interface, and subsequently used to improve the underlying models. By drastically reducing the time required for scientists to annotate their assays, we can realistically advocate for semantic annotation to become a standard part of the publication process. Once even a small proportion of the public body of bioassay data is marked up, bioinformatics researchers can begin to construct sophisticated and useful searching and analysis algorithms that will provide a diverse and powerful set of tools for drug discovery researchers.

Fast and accurate semantic annotation of bioassays exploiting a hybrid of machine learning and user confirmation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex M. Clark

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Bioinformatics and computer aided drug design rely on the curation of a large number of protocols for biological assays that measure the ability of potential drugs to achieve a therapeutic effect. These assay protocols are generally published by scientists in the form of plain text, which needs to be more precisely annotated in order to be useful to software methods. We have developed a pragmatic approach to describing assays according to the semantic definitions of the BioAssay Ontology (BAO project, using a hybrid of machine learning based on natural language processing, and a simplified user interface designed to help scientists curate their data with minimum effort. We have carried out this work based on the premise that pure machine learning is insufficiently accurate, and that expecting scientists to find the time to annotate their protocols manually is unrealistic. By combining these approaches, we have created an effective prototype for which annotation of bioassay text within the domain of the training set can be accomplished very quickly. Well-trained annotations require single-click user approval, while annotations from outside the training set domain can be identified using the search feature of a well-designed user interface, and subsequently used to improve the underlying models. By drastically reducing the time required for scientists to annotate their assays, we can realistically advocate for semantic annotation to become a standard part of the publication process. Once even a small proportion of the public body of bioassay data is marked up, bioinformatics researchers can begin to construct sophisticated and useful searching and analysis algorithms that will provide a diverse and powerful set of tools for drug discovery researchers.

A Deep Learning Framework for Robust and Accurate Prediction of ncRNA-Protein Interactions Using Evolutionary Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Hai-Cheng; You, Zhu-Hong; Huang, De-Shuang; Li, Xiao; Jiang, Tong-Hai; Li, Li-Ping

2018-06-01

The interactions between non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) and proteins play an important role in many biological processes, and their biological functions are primarily achieved by binding with a variety of proteins. High-throughput biological techniques are used to identify protein molecules bound with specific ncRNA, but they are usually expensive and time consuming. Deep learning provides a powerful solution to computationally predict RNA-protein interactions. In this work, we propose the RPI-SAN model by using the deep-learning stacked auto-encoder network to mine the hidden high-level features from RNA and protein sequences and feed them into a random forest (RF) model to predict ncRNA binding proteins. Stacked assembling is further used to improve the accuracy of the proposed method. Four benchmark datasets, including RPI2241, RPI488, RPI1807, and NPInter v2.0, were employed for the unbiased evaluation of five established prediction tools: RPI-Pred, IPMiner, RPISeq-RF, lncPro, and RPI-SAN. The experimental results show that our RPI-SAN model achieves much better performance than other methods, with accuracies of 90.77%, 89.7%, 96.1%, and 99.33%, respectively. It is anticipated that RPI-SAN can be used as an effective computational tool for future biomedical researches and can accurately predict the potential ncRNA-protein interacted pairs, which provides reliable guidance for biological research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic structure modeling of InAs/GaSb superlattices with hybrid density functional theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garwood, Tristan [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Center for High Technology Materials; Modine, Normand A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Krishna, S. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Center for High Technology Materials

2016-12-18

The application of first-principles calculations holds promise for greatly improving our understanding of semiconductor superlattices. By developing a procedure to accurately predict band gaps using hybrid density functional theory, it lays the groundwork for future studies investigating more nuanced properties of these structures. Our approach allows a priori prediction of the properties of SLS structures using only the band gaps of the constituent materials. Furthermore, it should enable direct investigation of the effects of interface structure, e.g., intermixing or ordering at the interface, on SLS properties. In this paper, we present band gap data for various InAs/GaSb type-II superlattice structures calculated using the generalized Kohn-Sham formulation of density functional theory. A PBE0-type hybrid functional was used, and the portion of the exact exchange was tuned to fit the band gaps of the binary compounds InAs and GaSb with the best agreement to bulk experimental values obtained with 18% of the exact exchange. The heterostructures considered in this study are 6 monolayer (ML) InAs/6 ML GaSb, 8 ML InAs/8 ML GaSb and 10 ML InAs/10 ML GaSb with deviations from the experimental band gaps ranging from 3% to 11%.

Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

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Amos O. Anele

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

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Chris C. Gianfagna

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

A Model Predictive Control Approach for Fuel Economy Improvement of a Series Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicle

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Tri-Vien Vu

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study applied a model predictive control (MPC framework to solve the cruising control problem of a series hydraulic hybrid vehicle (SHHV. The controller not only regulates vehicle velocity, but also engine torque, engine speed, and accumulator pressure to their corresponding reference values. At each time step, a quadratic programming problem is solved within a predictive horizon to obtain the optimal control inputs. The objective is to minimize the output error. This approach ensures that the components operate at high efficiency thereby improving the total efficiency of the system. The proposed SHHV control system was evaluated under urban and highway driving conditions. By handling constraints and input-output interactions, the MPC-based control system ensures that the system operates safely and efficiently. The fuel economy of the proposed control scheme shows a noticeable improvement in comparison with the PID-based system, in which three Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID controllers are used for cruising control.

Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle Systems Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, R. F.; Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

1985-01-01

Predefined components connected to represent wide variety of propulsion systems. Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle System (HEAVY) computer program is flexible tool for evaluating performance and cost of electric and hybrid vehicle propulsion systems. Allows designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict performance of proposed drive train.

Analysis of Linear Hybrid Systems in CLP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Banda, Gourinath; Gallagher, John Patrick

2009-01-01

In this paper we present a procedure for representing the semantics of linear hybrid automata (LHAs) as constraint logic programs (CLP); flexible and accurate analysis and verification of LHAs can then be performed using generic CLP analysis and transformation tools. LHAs provide an expressive...

Accurate and Reliable Prediction of the Binding Affinities of Macrocycles to Their Protein Targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Haoyu S; Deng, Yuqing; Wu, Yujie; Sindhikara, Dan; Rask, Amy R; Kimura, Takayuki; Abel, Robert; Wang, Lingle

2017-12-12

Macrocycles have been emerging as a very important drug class in the past few decades largely due to their expanded chemical diversity benefiting from advances in synthetic methods. Macrocyclization has been recognized as an effective way to restrict the conformational space of acyclic small molecule inhibitors with the hope of improving potency, selectivity, and metabolic stability. Because of their relatively larger size as compared to typical small molecule drugs and the complexity of the structures, efficient sampling of the accessible macrocycle conformational space and accurate prediction of their binding affinities to their target protein receptors poses a great challenge of central importance in computational macrocycle drug design. In this article, we present a novel method for relative binding free energy calculations between macrocycles with different ring sizes and between the macrocycles and their corresponding acyclic counterparts. We have applied the method to seven pharmaceutically interesting data sets taken from recent drug discovery projects including 33 macrocyclic ligands covering a diverse chemical space. The predicted binding free energies are in good agreement with experimental data with an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94 kcal/mol. This is to our knowledge the first time where the free energy of the macrocyclization of linear molecules has been directly calculated with rigorous physics-based free energy calculation methods, and we anticipate the outstanding accuracy demonstrated here across a broad range of target classes may have significant implications for macrocycle drug discovery.

Joint quantum state tomography of an entangled qubit–resonator hybrid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LinPeng, X Y; Zhang, H Z; Xu, K; Li, C Y; Zhong, Y P; Wang, Z L; Wang, H; Xie, Q W

2013-01-01

The integration of superconducting qubits and resonators in one circuit offers a promising solution for quantum information processing (QIP), which also realizes the on-chip analogue of cavity quantum electrodynamics (QED), known as circuit QED. In most prototype circuit designs, qubits are active processing elements and resonators are peripherals. As resonators typically have better coherence performance and more accessible energy levels, it is proposed that the entangled qubit–resonator hybrid can be used as a processing element. To achieve such a goal, an accurate measurement of the hybrid is first necessary. Here we demonstrate a joint quantum state tomography (QST) technique to fully characterize an entangled qubit–resonator hybrid. We benchmarked our QST technique by generating and accurately characterizing multiple states, e.g. |gN〉 + |e(N − 1)〉 where (|g〉 and |e〉) are the ground and excited states of the qubit and (|0〉,…,|N〉) are Fock states of the resonator. We further provided a numerical method to improve the QST efficiency and measured the decoherence dynamics of the bipartite hybrid, witnessing dissipation coming from both the qubit and the N-photon Fock state. As such, the joint QST presents an important step toward actively using the qubit–resonator element for QIP in hybrid quantum devices and for studying circuit QED. (paper)

IntaRNA 2.0: enhanced and customizable prediction of RNA–RNA interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Martin; Wright, Patrick R.

2017-01-01

Abstract The IntaRNA algorithm enables fast and accurate prediction of RNA–RNA hybrids by incorporating seed constraints and interaction site accessibility. Here, we introduce IntaRNAv2, which enables enhanced parameterization as well as fully customizable control over the prediction modes and output formats. Based on up to date benchmark data, the enhanced predictive quality is shown and further improvements due to more restrictive seed constraints are highlighted. The extended web interface provides visualizations of the new minimal energy profiles for RNA–RNA interactions. These allow a detailed investigation of interaction alternatives and can reveal potential interaction site multiplicity. IntaRNAv2 is freely available (source and binary), and distributed via the conda package manager. Furthermore, it has been included into the Galaxy workflow framework and its already established web interface enables ad hoc usage. PMID:28472523

Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goriely, S.

2015-01-01

The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

Feedforward signal prediction for accurate motion systems using digital filters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Butler, H.

2012-01-01

A positioning system that needs to accurately track a reference can benefit greatly from using feedforward. When using a force actuator, the feedforward needs to generate a force proportional to the reference acceleration, which can be measured by means of an accelerometer or can be created by

Stillwater Hybrid Geo-Solar Power Plant Optimization Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wendt, Daniel S.; Mines, Gregory L.; Turchi, Craig S.; Zhu, Guangdong; Cohan, Sander; Angelini, Lorenzo; Bizzarri, Fabrizio; Consoli, Daniele; De Marzo, Alessio

2015-09-02

The Stillwater Power Plant is the first hybrid plant in the world able to bring together a medium-enthalpy geothermal unit with solar thermal and solar photovoltaic systems. Solar field and power plant models have been developed to predict the performance of the Stillwater geothermal / solar-thermal hybrid power plant. The models have been validated using operational data from the Stillwater plant. A preliminary effort to optimize performance of the Stillwater hybrid plant using optical characterization of the solar field has been completed. The Stillwater solar field optical characterization involved measurement of mirror reflectance, mirror slope error, and receiver position error. The measurements indicate that the solar field may generate 9% less energy than the design value if an appropriate tracking offset is not employed. A perfect tracking offset algorithm may be able to boost the solar field performance by about 15%. The validated Stillwater hybrid plant models were used to evaluate hybrid plant operating strategies including turbine IGV position optimization, ACC fan speed and turbine IGV position optimization, turbine inlet entropy control using optimization of multiple process variables, and mixed working fluid substitution. The hybrid plant models predict that each of these operating strategies could increase net power generation relative to the baseline Stillwater hybrid plant operations.

Identifying and tracking pedestrians based on sensor fusion and motion stability predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Musleh, Basam; García, Fernando; Otamendi, Javier; Armingol, José Maria; de la Escalera, Arturo

2010-01-01

The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem) and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem). Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle.

Identifying and Tracking Pedestrians Based on Sensor Fusion and Motion Stability Predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arturo de la Escalera

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The lack of trustworthy sensors makes development of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS applications a tough task. It is necessary to develop intelligent systems by combining reliable sensors and real-time algorithms to send the proper, accurate messages to the drivers. In this article, an application to detect and predict the movement of pedestrians in order to prevent an imminent collision has been developed and tested under real conditions. The proposed application, first, accurately measures the position of obstacles using a two-sensor hybrid fusion approach: a stereo camera vision system and a laser scanner. Second, it correctly identifies pedestrians using intelligent algorithms based on polylines and pattern recognition related to leg positions (laser subsystem and dense disparity maps and u-v disparity (vision subsystem. Third, it uses statistical validation gates and confidence regions to track the pedestrian within the detection zones of the sensors and predict their position in the upcoming frames. The intelligent sensor application has been experimentally tested with success while tracking pedestrians that cross and move in zigzag fashion in front of a vehicle.

Which clustering algorithm is better for predicting protein complexes?

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Moschopoulos Charalampos N

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein-Protein interactions (PPI play a key role in determining the outcome of most cellular processes. The correct identification and characterization of protein interactions and the networks, which they comprise, is critical for understanding the molecular mechanisms within the cell. Large-scale techniques such as pull down assays and tandem affinity purification are used in order to detect protein interactions in an organism. Today, relatively new high-throughput methods like yeast two hybrid, mass spectrometry, microarrays, and phage display are also used to reveal protein interaction networks. Results In this paper we evaluated four different clustering algorithms using six different interaction datasets. We parameterized the MCL, Spectral, RNSC and Affinity Propagation algorithms and applied them to six PPI datasets produced experimentally by Yeast 2 Hybrid (Y2H and Tandem Affinity Purification (TAP methods. The predicted clusters, so called protein complexes, were then compared and benchmarked with already known complexes stored in published databases. Conclusions While results may differ upon parameterization, the MCL and RNSC algorithms seem to be more promising and more accurate at predicting PPI complexes. Moreover, they predict more complexes than other reviewed algorithms in absolute numbers. On the other hand the spectral clustering algorithm achieves the highest valid prediction rate in our experiments. However, it is nearly always outperformed by both RNSC and MCL in terms of the geometrical accuracy while it generates the fewest valid clusters than any other reviewed algorithm. This article demonstrates various metrics to evaluate the accuracy of such predictions as they are presented in the text below. Supplementary material can be found at: http://www.bioacademy.gr/bioinformatics/projects/ppireview.htm

Prediction of collision cross section and retention time for broad scope screening in gradient reversed-phase liquid chromatography-ion mobility-high resolution accurate mass spectrometry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mollerup, Christian Brinch; Mardal, Marie; Dalsgaard, Petur Weihe

2018-01-01

artificial neural networks (ANNs). Prediction was based on molecular descriptors, 827 RTs, and 357 CCS values from pharmaceuticals, drugs of abuse, and their metabolites. ANN models for the prediction of RT or CCS separately were examined, and the potential to predict both from a single model......Exact mass, retention time (RT), and collision cross section (CCS) are used as identification parameters in liquid chromatography coupled to ion mobility high resolution accurate mass spectrometry (LC-IM-HRMS). Targeted screening analyses are now more flexible and can be expanded for suspect...

Accurate microRNA target prediction correlates with protein repression levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simossis Victor A

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background MicroRNAs are small endogenously expressed non-coding RNA molecules that regulate target gene expression through translation repression or messenger RNA degradation. MicroRNA regulation is performed through pairing of the microRNA to sites in the messenger RNA of protein coding genes. Since experimental identification of miRNA target genes poses difficulties, computational microRNA target prediction is one of the key means in deciphering the role of microRNAs in development and disease. Results DIANA-microT 3.0 is an algorithm for microRNA target prediction which is based on several parameters calculated individually for each microRNA and combines conserved and non-conserved microRNA recognition elements into a final prediction score, which correlates with protein production fold change. Specifically, for each predicted interaction the program reports a signal to noise ratio and a precision score which can be used as an indication of the false positive rate of the prediction. Conclusion Recently, several computational target prediction programs were benchmarked based on a set of microRNA target genes identified by the pSILAC method. In this assessment DIANA-microT 3.0 was found to achieve the highest precision among the most widely used microRNA target prediction programs reaching approximately 66%. The DIANA-microT 3.0 prediction results are available online in a user friendly web server at http://www.microrna.gr/microT

Mate Choice Drives Evolutionary Stability in a Hybrid Complex.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Morgado-Santos

Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that assortative mating acts as a driver of speciation by countering hybridization between two populations of the same species (pre-zygotic isolation or through mate choice among the hybrids (hybrid speciation. In both speciation types, assortative mating promotes speciation over a transient hybridization stage. We studied mate choice in a hybrid vertebrate complex, the allopolyploid fish Squalius alburnoides. This complex is composed by several genomotypes connected by an intricate reproductive dynamics. We developed a model that predicts the hybrid complex can persist when females exhibit particular mate choice patterns. Our model is able to reproduce the diversity of population dynamic outcomes found in nature, namely the dominance of the triploids and the dominance of the tetraploids, depending on female mate choice patterns and frequency of the parental species. Experimental mate choice trials showed that females exhibit the preferences predicted by the model. Thus, despite the known role of assortative mating in driving speciation, our findings suggest that certain mate choice patterns can instead hinder speciation and support the persistence of hybrids over time without speciation or extinction.

Accurate evaluation for the biofilm-activated sludge reactor using graphical techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, Moharram; Bhargava, Renu

2018-05-01

A complete graphical solution is obtained for the completely mixed biofilm-activated sludge reactor (hybrid reactor). The solution consists of a series of curves deduced from the principal equations of the hybrid system after converting them in dimensionless form. The curves estimate the basic parameters of the hybrid system such as suspended biomass concentration, sludge residence time, wasted mass of sludge, and food to biomass ratio. All of these parameters can be expressed as functions of hydraulic retention time, influent substrate concentration, substrate concentration in the bulk, stagnant liquid layer thickness, and the minimum substrate concentration which can maintain the biofilm growth in addition to the basic kinetics of the activated sludge process in which all these variables are expressed in a dimensionless form. Compared to other solutions of such system these curves are simple, easy to use, and provide an accurate tool for analyzing such system based on fundamental principles. Further, these curves may be used as a quick tool to get the effect of variables change on the other parameters and the whole system.

A hybrid discrete-continuum mathematical model of pattern prediction in the developing retinal vasculature.

Science.gov (United States)

McDougall, S R; Watson, M G; Devlin, A H; Mitchell, C A; Chaplain, M A J

2012-10-01

Pathological angiogenesis has been extensively explored by the mathematical modelling community over the past few decades, specifically in the contexts of tumour-induced vascularisation and wound healing. However, there have been relatively few attempts to model angiogenesis associated with normal development, despite the availability of animal models with experimentally accessible and highly ordered vascular topologies: for example, growth and development of the vascular plexus layers in the murine retina. The current study aims to address this issue through the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum mathematical model of the developing retinal vasculature in neonatal mice that is closely coupled with an ongoing experimental programme. The model of the functional vasculature is informed by a range of morphological and molecular data obtained over a period of several days, from 6 days prior to birth to approximately 8 days after birth. The spatio-temporal formation of the superficial retinal vascular plexus (RVP) in wild-type mice occurs in a well-defined sequence. Prior to birth, astrocytes migrate from the optic nerve over the surface of the inner retina in response to a chemotactic gradient of PDGF-A, formed at an earlier stage by migrating retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). Astrocytes express a variety of chemotactic and haptotactic proteins, including VEGF and fibronectin (respectively), which subsequently induce endothelial cell sprouting and modulate growth of the RVP. The developing RVP is not an inert structure; however, the vascular bed adapts and remodels in response to a wide variety of metabolic and biomolecular stimuli. The main focus of this investigation is to understand how these interacting cellular, molecular, and metabolic cues regulate RVP growth and formation. In an earlier one-dimensional continuum model of astrocyte and endothelial migration, we showed that the measured frontal velocities of the two cell types could be accurately reproduced

Hybrid Prediction Method for Aircraft Interior Noise, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of the project is research and development of methods for application of the Hybrid FE-SEA method to aircraft vibro-acoustic problems. This proposal...

Model Predictive Control techniques with application to photovoltaic, DC Microgrid, and a multi-sourced hybrid energy system

Science.gov (United States)

Shadmand, Mohammad Bagher

Renewable energy sources continue to gain popularity. However, two major limitations exist that prevent widespread adoption: availability and variability of the electricity generated and the cost of the equipment. The focus of this dissertation is Model Predictive Control (MPC) for optimal sized photovoltaic (PV), DC Microgrid, and multi-sourced hybrid energy systems. The main considered applications are: maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by MPC, droop predictive control of DC microgrid, MPC of grid-interaction inverter, MPC of a capacitor-less VAR compensator based on matrix converter (MC). This dissertation firstly investigates a multi-objective optimization technique for a hybrid distribution system. The variability of a high-penetration PV scenario is also studied when incorporated into the microgrid concept. Emerging (PV) technologies have enabled the creation of contoured and conformal PV surfaces; the effect of using non-planar PV modules on variability is also analyzed. The proposed predictive control to achieve maximum power point for isolated and grid-tied PV systems speeds up the control loop since it predicts error before the switching signal is applied to the converter. The low conversion efficiency of PV cells means we want to ensure always operating at maximum possible power point to make the system economical. Thus the proposed MPPT technique can capture more energy compared to the conventional MPPT techniques from same amount of installed solar panel. Because of the MPPT requirement, the output voltage of the converter may vary. Therefore a droop control is needed to feed multiple arrays of photovoltaic systems to a DC bus in microgrid community. Development of a droop control technique by means of predictive control is another application of this dissertation. Reactive power, denoted as Volt Ampere Reactive (VAR), has several undesirable consequences on AC power system network such as reduction in power transfer capability and increase in

Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

2017-01-01

Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the

Electroweak production of hybrid mesons in a flux-tube simulation of lattice QCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Close, F.E.; Dudek, J.J.

2003-01-01

We make the first calculation of the electroweak couplings of hybrid mesons to conventional mesons appropriate to photoproduction and to the decays of B or D mesons. E1 amplitudes are found to be large and may contribute in charge exchange γp→nH + allowing production of (among others) the charged 1 -+ exotic hybrid off a 2 exchange. Axial hybrid meson photoproduction is predicted to be large courtesy of π exchange, and its strange hybrid counterpart is predicted in B→ψK H (1 + ) with branching ratio B∼10 -4 . Higher multipoles and some implications for hybrid charmonium are briefly discussed

A simple formula to predict the influence of the near-field in the optical control of confined electron systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeuchi, Takashi; Ohnuki, Shinichiro; Sako, Tokuei

2017-01-01

A simple formula for predicting the ratio between the field strengths of the incident laser pulse and of the near-field created in the vicinity of the target electron system has been proposed, in the context of optically controlling confined electron systems. The formula is easy to use and does not involve elaborate computation, thus enabling one to judge whether to use the time-consuming Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation or to stay with the conventional time-dependent Schrödinger equation approach that takes no near-field effect into account. As a demonstration we have examined in detail the system of an electron confined in a quasi-one-dimensional nanoscale potential well. The highly accurate Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation has been employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed formula in predicting the significance of the near-field effect. The near-field effect has shown to depend sensitively on the characteristics of the laser pulse and of the geometry of the confined electron system, which can be predicted well by the proposed formula. (paper)

Going With the Flow: An Aid in Detecting and Differentiating Bronchopulmonary Sequestrations and Hybrid Lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Edward R; DeBari, Suzanne E; Giannone, Mariann M; Pogoriler, Jennifer E; Johnson, Ann M; Horii, Steven C; Gebb, Juliana S; Howell, Lori J; Adzick, N Scott; Coleman, Beverly G

2018-02-01

To assess the ability of prenatal ultrasound (US) in identifying systemic feeding arteries in bronchopulmonary sequestrations and hybrid lesions and report the ability of US in classifying bronchopulmonary sequestrations as intralobar or extralobar. Institutional Review Board-approved radiology and clinical database searches from 2008 to 2015 were performed for prenatal lung lesions with final diagnoses of bronchopulmonary sequestrations or hybrid lesions. All patients had detailed US examinations, and most patients had ultrafast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Lesion location, size, and identification of systemic feeding arteries and draining veins were assessed with US. The study consisted of 102 bronchopulmonary sequestrations and 86 hybrid lesions. The median maternal age was 30 years. The median gestational age was 22 weeks 5 days. Of bronchopulmonary sequestrations, 66 had surgical pathologic confirmation, and 100 had postnatal imaging. Bronchopulmonary sequestration locations were intrathoracic (n = 77), intra-abdominal (n = 19), and transdiaphragmatic (n = 6). Of hybrid lesions, 84 had surgical pathologic confirmation, and 83 had postnatal imaging. Hybrid lesion locations were intrathoracic (n = 84) and transdiaphragmatic (n = 2). Ultrasound correctly identified systemic feeding arteries in 86 of 102 bronchopulmonary sequestrations and 79 of 86 hybrid lesions. Of patients who underwent MRI, systemic feeding arteries were reported in 62 of 92 bronchopulmonary sequestrations and 56 of 81 hybrid lesions. Ultrasound identified more systemic feeding arteries than MRI in both bronchopulmonary sequestrations and hybrid lesions (P < .01). Magnetic resonance imaging identified systemic feeding arteries that US did not in only 2 cases. In cases in which both systemic feeding arteries and draining veins were identified, US could correctly predict intrathoracic lesions as intralobar or extralobar in 44 of 49 bronchopulmonary sequestrations and

Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katata, Genki

2009-02-01

In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

Numerical Prediction of Combustion-induced Noise using a hybrid LES/CAA approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ihme, Matthias; Pitsch, Heinz; Kaltenbacher, Manfred

2006-11-01

Noise generation in technical devices is an increasingly important problem. Jet engines in particular produce sound levels that not only are a nuisance but may also impair hearing. The noise emitted by such engines is generated by different sources such as jet exhaust, fans or turbines, and combustion. Whereas the former acoustic mechanisms are reasonably well understood, combustion-generated noise is not. A methodology for the prediction of combustion-generated noise is developed. In this hybrid approach unsteady acoustic source terms are obtained from an LES and the propagation of pressure perturbations are obtained using acoustic analogies. Lighthill's acoustic analogy and a non-linear wave equation, accounting for variable speed of sound, have been employed. Both models are applied to an open diffusion flame. The effects on the far field pressure and directivity due to the variation of speed of sound are analyzed. Results for the sound pressure level will be compared with experimental data.

Fast Construction of Near Parsimonious Hybridization Networks for Multiple Phylogenetic Trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzaei, Sajad; Wu, Yufeng

2016-01-01

Hybridization networks represent plausible evolutionary histories of species that are affected by reticulate evolutionary processes. An established computational problem on hybridization networks is constructing the most parsimonious hybridization network such that each of the given phylogenetic trees (called gene trees) is "displayed" in the network. There have been several previous approaches, including an exact method and several heuristics, for this NP-hard problem. However, the exact method is only applicable to a limited range of data, and heuristic methods can be less accurate and also slow sometimes. In this paper, we develop a new algorithm for constructing near parsimonious networks for multiple binary gene trees. This method is more efficient for large numbers of gene trees than previous heuristics. This new method also produces more parsimonious results on many simulated datasets as well as a real biological dataset than a previous method. We also show that our method produces topologically more accurate networks for many datasets.

Framework for developing hybrid process-driven, artificial neural network and regression models for salinity prediction in river systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Jason M.; Maier, Holger R.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Foale, Eloise R.; Grosvenor, Naomi A.; Harders, Nathan P.; Kikuchi-Miller, Tahali C.

2018-05-01

to account for the flushing of the different floodplain storages. The resulting hybrid model performs very well on approximately 3 years of daily validation data, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.89 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.62 mg L-1 (over a range from approximately 50 to 250 mg L-1). Each component of the hybrid model results in noticeable improvements in model performance corresponding to the range of flows for which they are developed. The predictive performance of the hybrid model is significantly better than that of a benchmark process-driven model (NSE = -0.14, RMSE = 41.10 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.90) and slightly better than that of a benchmark data-driven (ANN) model (NSE = 0.83, RMSE = 15.93 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.36). Apart from improved predictive performance, the hybrid model also has advantages over the ANN benchmark model in terms of increased capacity for improving system understanding and greater ability to support management decisions.

Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

2015-01-01

Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

Compact and Hybrid Feature Description for Building Extraction

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Liu, Y.; Hu, Y.; Li, P.; Ding, Y.

2017-05-01

Building extraction in aerial orthophotos is crucial for various applications. Currently, deep learning has been shown to be successful in addressing building extraction with high accuracy and high robustness. However, quite a large number of samples is required in training a classifier when using deep learning model. In order to realize accurate and semi-interactive labelling, the performance of feature description is crucial, as it has significant effect on the accuracy of classification. In this paper, we bring forward a compact and hybrid feature description method, in order to guarantees desirable classification accuracy of the corners on the building roof contours. The proposed descriptor is a hybrid description of an image patch constructed from 4 sets of binary intensity tests. Experiments show that benefiting from binary description and making full use of color channels, this descriptor is not only computationally frugal, but also accurate than SURF for building extraction.

DyHAP: Dynamic Hybrid ANFIS-PSO Approach for Predicting Mobile Malware.

Science.gov (United States)

Afifi, Firdaus; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond

2016-01-01

To deal with the large number of malicious mobile applications (e.g. mobile malware), a number of malware detection systems have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to find the optimum parameters that can be used to facilitate mobile malware identification. We also present a multi agent system architecture comprising three system agents (i.e. sniffer, extraction and selection agent) to capture and manage the pcap file for data preparation phase. In our hybrid approach, we combine an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Evaluations using data captured on a real-world Android device and the MalGenome dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, in comparison to two hybrid optimization methods which are differential evolution (ANFIS-DE) and ant colony optimization (ANFIS-ACO).

DyHAP: Dynamic Hybrid ANFIS-PSO Approach for Predicting Mobile Malware.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Firdaus Afifi

Full Text Available To deal with the large number of malicious mobile applications (e.g. mobile malware, a number of malware detection systems have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to find the optimum parameters that can be used to facilitate mobile malware identification. We also present a multi agent system architecture comprising three system agents (i.e. sniffer, extraction and selection agent to capture and manage the pcap file for data preparation phase. In our hybrid approach, we combine an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and particle swarm optimization (PSO. Evaluations using data captured on a real-world Android device and the MalGenome dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, in comparison to two hybrid optimization methods which are differential evolution (ANFIS-DE and ant colony optimization (ANFIS-ACO.

DyHAP: Dynamic Hybrid ANFIS-PSO Approach for Predicting Mobile Malware

Science.gov (United States)

Afifi, Firdaus; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin

2016-01-01

To deal with the large number of malicious mobile applications (e.g. mobile malware), a number of malware detection systems have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to find the optimum parameters that can be used to facilitate mobile malware identification. We also present a multi agent system architecture comprising three system agents (i.e. sniffer, extraction and selection agent) to capture and manage the pcap file for data preparation phase. In our hybrid approach, we combine an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Evaluations using data captured on a real-world Android device and the MalGenome dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, in comparison to two hybrid optimization methods which are differential evolution (ANFIS-DE) and ant colony optimization (ANFIS-ACO). PMID:27611312

Can radiation therapy treatment planning system accurately predict surface doses in postmastectomy radiation therapy patients?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, Sharon; Back, Michael; Tan, Poh Wee; Lee, Khai Mun; Baggarley, Shaun; Lu, Jaide Jay

2012-01-01

Skin doses have been an important factor in the dose prescription for breast radiotherapy. Recent advances in radiotherapy treatment techniques, such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and new treatment schemes such as hypofractionated breast therapy have made the precise determination of the surface dose necessary. Detailed information of the dose at various depths of the skin is also critical in designing new treatment strategies. The purpose of this work was to assess the accuracy of surface dose calculation by a clinically used treatment planning system and those measured by thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) in a customized chest wall phantom. This study involved the construction of a chest wall phantom for skin dose assessment. Seven TLDs were distributed throughout each right chest wall phantom to give adequate representation of measured radiation doses. Point doses from the CMS Xio® treatment planning system (TPS) were calculated for each relevant TLD positions and results correlated. There were no significant difference between measured absorbed dose by TLD and calculated doses by the TPS (p > 0.05 (1-tailed). Dose accuracy of up to 2.21% was found. The deviations from the calculated absorbed doses were overall larger (3.4%) when wedges and bolus were used. 3D radiotherapy TPS is a useful and accurate tool to assess the accuracy of surface dose. Our studies have shown that radiation treatment accuracy expressed as a comparison between calculated doses (by TPS) and measured doses (by TLD dosimetry) can be accurately predicted for tangential treatment of the chest wall after mastectomy.

On the complexity of the Saccharomyces bayanus taxon: hybridization and potential hybrid speciation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Pérez-Través

Full Text Available Although the genus Saccharomyces has been thoroughly studied, some species in the genus has not yet been accurately resolved; an example is S. bayanus, a taxon that includes genetically diverse lineages of pure and hybrid strains. This diversity makes the assignation and classification of strains belonging to this species unclear and controversial. They have been subdivided by some authors into two varieties (bayanus and uvarum, which have been raised to the species level by others. In this work, we evaluate the complexity of 46 different strains included in the S. bayanus taxon by means of PCR-RFLP analysis and by sequencing of 34 gene regions and one mitochondrial gene. Using the sequence data, and based on the S. bayanus var. bayanus reference strain NBRC 1948, a hypothetical pure S. bayanus was reconstructed for these genes that showed alleles with similarity values lower than 97% with the S. bayanus var. uvarum strain CBS 7001, and of 99-100% with the non S. cerevisiae portion in S. pastorianus Weihenstephan 34/70 and with the new species S. eubayanus. Among the S. bayanus strains under study, different levels of homozygosity, hybridization and introgression were found; however, no pure S. bayanus var. bayanus strain was identified. These S. bayanus hybrids can be classified into two types: homozygous (type I and heterozygous hybrids (type II, indicating that they have been originated by different hybridization processes. Therefore, a putative evolutionary scenario involving two different hybridization events between a S. bayanus var. uvarum and unknown European S. eubayanus-like strains can be postulated to explain the genomic diversity observed in our S. bayanus var. bayanus strains.

Generation of auroral kilometric radiation in upper hybrid wave-lower hybrid soliton interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pottelette, R.; Dubouloz, N.; Treumann, R.A.

1992-01-01

Sporadic bursts of auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) associated with strong bursty electrostatic turbulence in the vicinity of the lower hybrid frequency have been frequently recorded in the AKR source region by the Viking satellite. The variation time scale of these emissions is typically 1 s, long enough for lower hybrid waves to grow to amplitudes of several hundred millivolts per meter and to evolve nonlinearly into solitons. On the basis on these observations it is suggested that formation of lower hybrid solitons may play a role in the generation of AKR. A theoretical model is proposed which is based on the direct acceleration of electrons in the combined lower hybrid soliton and upper hybrid wave fields. The solitons act as sporadic, localized antennas allowing for efficient conversions of the electrostatic energy stored in upper hybrid waves into electromagnetic radiation at a frequency above the X mode cutoff. Excitation of lower hybrid waves is due to the presence of energetic electron beams in the auroral zone found to be associated with steep plasma density gradients. Upper hybrid waves can be excited by a population of energetic electrons with loss cone distributions. The power of the electromagnetic radiation obtained is only noticeable in regions where the plasma frequency is less than the electron gyrofrequency. The theory predicts spectral power densities of the order of 10 -11 to 10 -9 W m -2 Hz -1 in the source region, in good agreement with the Viking observations. The sporadic nature of the radiation derives from lower hybrid soliton collapses which occur on ∼1-s time scales

Masses of open-flavour heavy-light hybrids from QCD sum-rules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ho, J. [Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan,Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2 (Canada); Harnett, D. [Department of Physics, University of the Fraser Valley,Abbotsford, BC, V2S 7M8 (Canada); Steele, T.G. [Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan,Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2 (Canada)

2017-05-29

We use QCD Laplace sum-rules to predict masses of open-flavour heavy-light hybrids where one of the hybrid’s constituent quarks is a charm or bottom and the other is an up, down, or strange. We compute leading-order, diagonal correlation functions of several hybrid interpolating currents, taking into account QCD condensates up to dimension-six, and extract hybrid mass predictions for all J{sup P}∈{0"±, 1"±}, as well as explore possible mixing effects with conventional quark-antiquark mesons. Within theoretical uncertainties, our results are consistent with a degeneracy between the heavy-nonstrange and heavy-strange hybrids in all J{sup P} channels. We find a similar mass hierarchy of 1{sup +}, 1{sup −}, and 0{sup +} states (a 1{sup +} state lighter than essentially degenerate 1{sup −} and 0{sup +} states) in both the charm and bottom sectors, and discuss an interpretation for the 0{sup −} states. If conventional meson mixing is present the effect is an increase in the hybrid mass prediction, and we estimate an upper bound on this effect.

Properties predictive modeling through the concept of a hybrid interphase existing between phases in contact

Science.gov (United States)

Portan, D. V.; Papanicolaou, G. C.

2018-02-01

From practical point of view, predictive modeling based on the physics of composite material behavior is wealth generating; by guiding material system selection and process choices, by cutting down on experimentation and associated costs; and by speeding up the time frame from the research stage to the market place. The presence of areas with different properties and the existence of an interphase between them have a pronounced influence on the behavior of a composite system. The Viscoelastic Hybrid Interphase Model (VHIM), considers the existence of a non-homogeneous viscoelastic and anisotropic interphase having properties depended on the degree of adhesion between the two phases in contact. The model applies for any physical/mechanical property (e.g. mechanical, thermal, electrical and/or biomechanical). Knowing the interphasial variation of a specific property one can predict the corresponding macroscopic behavior of the composite. Moreover, the model acts as an algorithm and a two-way approach can be used: (i) phases in contact may be chosen to get the desired properties of the final composite system or (ii) the initial phases in contact determine the final behavior of the composite system, that can be approximately predicted. The VHIM has been proven, amongst others, to be extremely useful in biomaterial designing for improved contact with human tissues.

AN EFFECTIVE HYBRID SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION WITH CHAOS-EMBEDDED BIOGEOGRAPHY-BASED OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY FOR PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED SLOPE DEFORMATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Heidari

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Earthquake can pose earth-shattering health hazards to the natural slops and land infrastructures. One of the chief consequences of the earthquakes can be land sliding, which is instigated by durable shaking. In this research, an efficient procedure is proposed to assist the prediction of earthquake-originated slope displacements (EIDS. New hybrid SVM-CBBO strategy is implemented to predict the EIDS. For this purpose, first, chaos paradigm is combined with initialization of BBO to enhance the diversification and intensification capacity of the conventional BBO optimizer. Then, chaotic BBO is developed as the searching scheme to investigate the best values of SVR parameters. In this paper, it will be confirmed that how the new computing approach is effective in prediction of EIDS. The outcomes affirm that the SVR-BBO strategy with chaos can be employed effectively as a predicting tool for evaluating the EIDS.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aiqing Kang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

IntaRNA 2.0: enhanced and customizable prediction of RNA-RNA interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Martin; Wright, Patrick R; Backofen, Rolf

2017-07-03

The IntaRNA algorithm enables fast and accurate prediction of RNA-RNA hybrids by incorporating seed constraints and interaction site accessibility. Here, we introduce IntaRNAv2, which enables enhanced parameterization as well as fully customizable control over the prediction modes and output formats. Based on up to date benchmark data, the enhanced predictive quality is shown and further improvements due to more restrictive seed constraints are highlighted. The extended web interface provides visualizations of the new minimal energy profiles for RNA-RNA interactions. These allow a detailed investigation of interaction alternatives and can reveal potential interaction site multiplicity. IntaRNAv2 is freely available (source and binary), and distributed via the conda package manager. Furthermore, it has been included into the Galaxy workflow framework and its already established web interface enables ad hoc usage. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

A hybrid clustering and classification approach for predicting crash injury severity on rural roads.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasheminejad, Seyed Hessam-Allah; Zahedi, Mohsen; Hasheminejad, Seyed Mohammad Hossein

2018-03-01

As a threat for transportation system, traffic crashes have a wide range of social consequences for governments. Traffic crashes are increasing in developing countries and Iran as a developing country is not immune from this risk. There are several researches in the literature to predict traffic crash severity based on artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines and decision trees. This paper attempts to investigate the crash injury severity of rural roads by using a hybrid clustering and classification approach to compare the performance of classification algorithms before and after applying the clustering. In this paper, a novel rule-based genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to predict crash injury severity, which is evaluated by performance criteria in comparison with classification algorithms like ANN. The results obtained from analysis of 13,673 crashes (5600 property damage, 778 fatal crashes, 4690 slight injuries and 2605 severe injuries) on rural roads in Tehran Province of Iran during 2011-2013 revealed that the proposed GA method outperforms other classification algorithms based on classification metrics like precision (86%), recall (88%) and accuracy (87%). Moreover, the proposed GA method has the highest level of interpretation, is easy to understand and provides feedback to analysts.

Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

Science.gov (United States)

Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

1996-01-01

The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

Accurate simulation of geometry, singlet-singlet and triplet-singlet excitation of cyclometalated iridium(III) complex.

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Wang, Jian; Bai, Fu-Quan; Xia, Bao-Hui; Zhang, Hong-Xing; Cui, Tian

2014-03-01

In the current contribution, we present a critical study of the theoretical protocol used for the determination of the electronic spectra properties of luminescent cyclometalated iridium(III) complex, [Ir(III)(ppy)₂H₂dcbpy]⁺ (where, ppy = 2-phenylpyridine, H₂dcbpy = 2,2'-bipyridine-4,4'-dicarboxylic acid), considered as a representative example of the various problems related to the prediction of electronic spectra of transition metal complex. The choice of the exchange-correlation functional is crucial for the validity of the conclusions that would be drawn from the numerical results. The influence of the exchange-correlation on geometry parameter and absorption/emission band, the role of solvent effects on time-dependent density function theory (TD-DFT) calculations, as well as the importance of the chosen proper procedure to optimize triplet excited geometry, have been thus examined in detail. From the obtained results, some general conclusions and guidelines are presented: i) PBE0 functional is the most accurate in prediction of ground state geometry; ii) the well-established B3LYP, B3P86, PBE0, and X3LYP have similar accuracy in calculation of absorption spectrum; and iii) the hybrid approach TD-DFT//CIS gives out excellent agreement in the evaluation of triplet excitation energy.

Experimental and theoretical assessment of flexural properties of hybrid natural fibre composites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raghavalu Thirumalai, Durai Prabhakaran; Toftegaard, Helmuth Langmaack; Markussen, Christen Malte

2014-01-01

The concept of hybridization of natural fibre composites with synthetic fibres is attracting increasing scientific attention. The present study addresses the flexural properties of hybrid flax/glass/epoxy composites to demonstrate the potential benefits of hybridization. The study covers both...... experimental and theoretical assessments. Composite laminates with different hybrid fibre mixing ratios and different layer configurations were manufactured, and their volumetric composition and flexural properties were measured. The relationship between volume fractions in the composites is shown to be well...... predicted as a function of the hybrid fibre mixing ratio. The flexural modulus of the composites is theoretically assessed by using micromechanical models and laminate theory. The model predictions are compared with the experimentally determined flexural properties. Both approaches show that the flexural...

A simple, fast, and accurate thermodynamic-based approach for transfer and prediction of gas chromatography retention times between columns and instruments Part III: Retention time prediction on target column.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Siyuan; Stevenson, Keisean A J M; Harynuk, James J

2018-03-27

This is the third part of a three-part series of papers. In Part I, we presented a method for determining the actual effective geometry of a reference column as well as the thermodynamic-based parameters of a set of probe compounds in an in-house mixture. Part II introduced an approach for estimating the actual effective geometry of a target column by collecting retention data of the same mixture of probe compounds on the target column and using their thermodynamic parameters, acquired on the reference column, as a bridge between both systems. Part III, presented here, demonstrates the retention time transfer and prediction from the reference column to the target column using experimental data for a separate mixture of compounds. To predict the retention time of a new compound, we first estimate its thermodynamic-based parameters on the reference column (using geometric parameters determined previously). The compound's retention time on a second column (of previously determined geometry) is then predicted. The models and the associated optimization algorithms were tested using simulated and experimental data. The accuracy of predicted retention times shows that the proposed approach is simple, fast, and accurate for retention time transfer and prediction between gas chromatography columns. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

COMPARISON OF PARALLEL AND SERIES HYBRID POWERTRAINS FOR TRANSIT BUS APPLICATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, Zhiming [ORNL; Daw, C Stuart [ORNL; Smith, David E [ORNL; Jones, Perry T [ORNL; LaClair, Tim J [ORNL; Parks, II, James E [ORNL

2016-01-01

The fuel economy and emissions of both conventional and hybrid buses equipped with emissions aftertreatment were evaluated via computational simulation for six representative city bus drive cycles. Both series and parallel configurations for the hybrid case were studied. The simulation results indicate that series hybrid buses have the greatest overall advantage in fuel economy. The series and parallel hybrid buses were predicted to produce similar CO and HC tailpipe emissions but were also predicted to have reduced NOx tailpipe emissions compared to the conventional bus in higher speed cycles. For the New York bus cycle (NYBC), which has the lowest average speed among the cycles evaluated, the series bus tailpipe emissions were somewhat higher than they were for the conventional bus, while the parallel hybrid bus had significantly lower tailpipe emissions. All three bus powertrains were found to require periodic active DPF regeneration to maintain PM control. Plug-in operation of series hybrid buses appears to offer significant fuel economy benefits and is easily employed due to the relatively large battery capacity that is typical of the series hybrid configuration.

Hybrid forecasting of chaotic processes: Using machine learning in conjunction with a knowledge-based model

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Pathak, Jaideep; Wikner, Alexander; Fussell, Rebeckah; Chandra, Sarthak; Hunt, Brian R.; Girvan, Michelle; Ott, Edward

2018-04-01

A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the mechanistic processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time series measurements of system state variables (training data), without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The motivation for this paper is the potential of machine learning for filling in the gaps in our underlying mechanistic knowledge that cause widely-used knowledge-based models to be inaccurate. Thus, we here propose a general method that leverages the advantages of these two approaches by combining a knowledge-based model and a machine learning technique to build a hybrid forecasting scheme. Potential applications for such an approach are numerous (e.g., improving weather forecasting). We demonstrate and test the utility of this approach using a particular illustrative version of a machine learning known as reservoir computing, and we apply the resulting hybrid forecaster to a low-dimensional chaotic system, as well as to a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic system. These tests yield extremely promising results in that our hybrid technique is able to accurately predict for a much longer period of time than either its machine-learning component or its model-based component alone.

Unilateral Prostate Cancer Cannot be Accurately Predicted in Low-Risk Patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isbarn, Hendrik; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.; Vogel, Susanne

2010-01-01

Purpose: Hemiablative therapy (HAT) is increasing in popularity for treatment of patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). The validity of this therapeutic modality, which exclusively treats PCa within a single prostate lobe, rests on accurate staging. We tested the accuracy of unilaterally unremarkable biopsy findings in cases of low-risk PCa patients who are potential candidates for HAT. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 243 men with clinical stage ≤T2a, a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of <10 ng/ml, a biopsy-proven Gleason sum of ≤6, and a maximum of 2 ipsilateral positive biopsy results out of 10 or more cores. All men underwent a radical prostatectomy, and pathology stage was used as the gold standard. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were tested for significant predictors of unilateral, organ-confined PCa. These predictors consisted of PSA, %fPSA (defined as the quotient of free [uncomplexed] PSA divided by the total PSA), clinical stage (T2a vs. T1c), gland volume, and number of positive biopsy cores (2 vs. 1). Results: Despite unilateral stage at biopsy, bilateral or even non-organ-confined PCa was reported in 64% of all patients. In multivariable analyses, no variable could clearly and independently predict the presence of unilateral PCa. This was reflected in an overall accuracy of 58% (95% confidence interval, 50.6-65.8%). Conclusions: Two-thirds of patients with unilateral low-risk PCa, confirmed by clinical stage and biopsy findings, have bilateral or non-organ-confined PCa at radical prostatectomy. This alarming finding questions the safety and validity of HAT.

A novel hybrid stress-function finite element method immune to severe mesh distortion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cen Song; Zhou Mingjue; Fu Xiangrong

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a hybrid stress-function finite element method proposed recently for developing 2D finite element models immune to element shapes. Deferent from the first version of the hybrid-stress element constructed by Pian, the stress function φ of 2D elastic or fracture problem is regarded as the functional variable of the complementary energy functional. Then, the basic analytical solutions of φ are taken as the trial functions for finite element models, and meanwhile, the corresponding unknown stress-function constants are introduced. By using the principle of minimum complementary energy, these unknown stress-function constants can be expressed in terms of the displacements along element edges. Finally, the complementary energy functional can be rewritten in terms of element nodal displacement vector, and thus, the element stiffness matrix of such hybrid-function element can be obtained. As examples, two (8- and 12-node) quadrilateral plane elements and an arbitrary polygonal crack element are constructed by employing different basic analytical solutions of different stress functions. Numerical results show that, the 8- and 12-node plane models can produce the exact solutions for pure bending and linear bending problems, respectively, even the element shape degenerates into triangle and concave quadrangle; and the crack element can also predict accurate results with very low computational cost in analysis of stress-singularity problems.

The Hybrid II assay: a sensitive and specific real-time hybridization assay for the diagnosis of Theileria parva infection in Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer) and cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Pienaar, Ronel; Potgieter, Fred T; Latif, Abdalla A; Thekisoe, Oriel M M; Mans, Ben J

2011-12-01

Corridor disease is an acute, fatal disease of cattle caused by buffalo-adapted Theileria parva. This is a nationally controlled disease in South Africa and strict control measures apply for the movement of buffalo, which includes mandatory testing for the presence of T. parva and other controlled diseases. Accurate diagnosis of the T. parva carrier state in buffalo using the official real-time hybridization PCR assay (Sibeko et al. 2008), has been shown to be affected by concurrent infection with T. sp. (buffalo)-like parasites. We describe the Hybrid II assay, a real-time hybridization PCR method, which compares well with the official hybridization assay in terms of specificity and sensitivity. It is, however, not influenced by mixed infections of T. sp. (buffalo)-like parasites and is as such a significant improvement on the current hybridization assay.

Fast and accurate implementation of Fourier spectral approximations of nonlocal diffusion operators and its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Qiang; Yang, Jiang

2017-01-01

This work is concerned with the Fourier spectral approximation of various integral differential equations associated with some linear nonlocal diffusion and peridynamic operators under periodic boundary conditions. For radially symmetric kernels, the nonlocal operators under consideration are diagonalizable in the Fourier space so that the main computational challenge is on the accurate and fast evaluation of their eigenvalues or Fourier symbols consisting of possibly singular and highly oscillatory integrals. For a large class of fractional power-like kernels, we propose a new approach based on reformulating the Fourier symbols both as coefficients of a series expansion and solutions of some simple ODE models. We then propose a hybrid algorithm that utilizes both truncated series expansions and high order Runge–Kutta ODE solvers to provide fast evaluation of Fourier symbols in both one and higher dimensional spaces. It is shown that this hybrid algorithm is robust, efficient and accurate. As applications, we combine this hybrid spectral discretization in the spatial variables and the fourth-order exponential time differencing Runge–Kutta for temporal discretization to offer high order approximations of some nonlocal gradient dynamics including nonlocal Allen–Cahn equations, nonlocal Cahn–Hilliard equations, and nonlocal phase-field crystal models. Numerical results show the accuracy and effectiveness of the fully discrete scheme and illustrate some interesting phenomena associated with the nonlocal models.

Detailed Post-Soft Impact Progressive Damage Assessment for Hybrid Structure Jet Engines

Science.gov (United States)

Siddens, Aaron; Bayandor, Javid; Celestina, Mark L.

2014-01-01

Currently, certification of engine designs for resistance to bird strike is reliant on physical tests. Predictive modeling of engine structural damage has mostly been limited to evaluation of individual forward section components, such as fan blades within a fixed frame of reference, to direct impact with a bird. Such models must be extended to include interactions among engine components under operating conditions to evaluate the full extent of engine damage. This paper presents the results of a study aim to develop a methodology for evaluating bird strike damage in advanced propulsion systems incorporating hybrid composite/metal structures. The initial degradation and failure of individual fan blades struck by a bird were investigated. Subsequent damage to other fan blades and engine components due to resultant violent fan assembly vibrations and fragmentation was further evaluated. Various modeling parameters for the bird and engine components were investigated to determine guidelines for accurately capturing initial damage and progressive failure of engine components. Then, a novel hybrid structure modeling approach was investigated and incorporated into the crashworthiness methodology. Such a tool is invaluable to the process of design, development, and certification of future advanced propulsion systems.

Accurate prediction of stability changes in protein mutants by combining machine learning with structure based computational mutagenesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

2008-09-15

Accurate predictive models for the impact of single amino acid substitutions on protein stability provide insight into protein structure and function. Such models are also valuable for the design and engineering of new proteins. Previously described methods have utilized properties of protein sequence or structure to predict the free energy change of mutants due to thermal (DeltaDeltaG) and denaturant (DeltaDeltaG(H2O)) denaturations, as well as mutant thermal stability (DeltaT(m)), through the application of either computational energy-based approaches or machine learning techniques. However, accuracy associated with applying these methods separately is frequently far from optimal. We detail a computational mutagenesis technique based on a four-body, knowledge-based, statistical contact potential. For any mutation due to a single amino acid replacement in a protein, the method provides an empirical normalized measure of the ensuing environmental perturbation occurring at every residue position. A feature vector is generated for the mutant by considering perturbations at the mutated position and it's ordered six nearest neighbors in the 3-dimensional (3D) protein structure. These predictors of stability change are evaluated by applying machine learning tools to large training sets of mutants derived from diverse proteins that have been experimentally studied and described. Predictive models based on our combined approach are either comparable to, or in many cases significantly outperform, previously published results. A web server with supporting documentation is available at http://proteins.gmu.edu/automute.

Boron/aluminum graphite/resin advanced fiber composite hybrids

Science.gov (United States)

Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sullivan, T. L.

1975-01-01

Fabrication feasibility and potential of an adhesively bonded metal and resin matrix fiber-composite hybrid are determined as an advanced material for aerospace and other structural applications. The results show that using this hybrid concept makes possible a composite design which, when compared with nonhybrid composites, has greater transverse strength, transverse stiffness, and impact resistance with only a small penalty on density and longitudinal properties. The results also show that laminate theory is suitable for predicting the structural response of such hybrids. The sequence of fracture modes indicates that these types of hybrids can be readily designed to meet fail-safe requirements.

Combining Mean and Standard Deviation of Hounsfield Unit Measurements from Preoperative CT Allows More Accurate Prediction of Urinary Stone Composition Than Mean Hounsfield Units Alone.

Science.gov (United States)

Tailly, Thomas; Larish, Yaniv; Nadeau, Brandon; Violette, Philippe; Glickman, Leonard; Olvera-Posada, Daniel; Alenezi, Husain; Amann, Justin; Denstedt, John; Razvi, Hassan

2016-04-01

The mineral composition of a urinary stone may influence its surgical and medical treatment. Previous attempts at identifying stone composition based on mean Hounsfield Units (HUm) have had varied success. We aimed to evaluate the additional use of standard deviation of HU (HUsd) to more accurately predict stone composition. We identified patients from two centers who had undergone urinary stone treatment between 2006 and 2013 and had mineral stone analysis and a computed tomography (CT) available. HUm and HUsd of the stones were compared with ANOVA. Receiver operative characteristic analysis with area under the curve (AUC), Youden index, and likelihood ratio calculations were performed. Data were available for 466 patients. The major components were calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), uric acid, hydroxyapatite, struvite, brushite, cystine, and CO dihydrate (COD) in 41.4%, 19.3%, 12.4%, 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.4%, and 4.7% of patients, respectively. The HUm of UA and Br was significantly lower and higher than the HUm of any other stone type, respectively. HUm and HUsd were most accurate in predicting uric acid with an AUC of 0.969 and 0.851, respectively. The combined use of HUm and HUsd resulted in increased positive predictive value and higher likelihood ratios for identifying a stone's mineral composition for all stone types but COM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of CT data aiding in the prediction of brushite stone composition. Both HUm and HUsd can help predict stone composition and their combined use results in higher likelihood ratios influencing probability.

Dynamics of Flexible MLI-type Debris for Accurate Orbit Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

debris for accurate propagation under perturbations”, in Proceedings of 65th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2014), Toronto, Canada , 2014...Surveillance Network ( SSN ) was able to detect more than 900 pieces of debris that were at risk to damage operational spacecraft. In February 10, 2009...created two large debris clouds and the SSN reported that 382 pieces of debris from Iridium 33 and 893 pieces from Cosmos 2251 were created, and

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

2016-02-24

A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiyao Wang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU/dead reckoning (DR data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Shang

Full Text Available Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS. Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA. Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

Mode identification using stochastic hybrid models with applications to conflict detection and resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Naseri Kouzehgarani, Asal

2009-12-01

Most models of aircraft trajectories are non-linear and stochastic in nature; and their internal parameters are often poorly defined. The ability to model, simulate and analyze realistic air traffic management conflict detection scenarios in a scalable, composable, multi-aircraft fashion is an extremely difficult endeavor. Accurate techniques for aircraft mode detection are critical in order to enable the precise projection of aircraft conflicts, and for the enactment of altitude separation resolution strategies. Conflict detection is an inherently probabilistic endeavor; our ability to detect conflicts in a timely and accurate manner over a fixed time horizon is traded off against the increased human workload created by false alarms---that is, situations that would not develop into an actual conflict, or would resolve naturally in the appropriate time horizon-thereby introducing a measure of probabilistic uncertainty in any decision aid fashioned to assist air traffic controllers. The interaction of the continuous dynamics of the aircraft, used for prediction purposes, with the discrete conflict detection logic gives rise to the hybrid nature of the overall system. The introduction of the probabilistic element, common to decision alerting and aiding devices, places the conflict detection and resolution problem in the domain of probabilistic hybrid phenomena. A hidden Markov model (HMM) has two stochastic components: a finite-state Markov chain and a finite set of output probability distributions. In other words an unobservable stochastic process (hidden) that can only be observed through another set of stochastic processes that generate the sequence of observations. The problem of self separation in distributed air traffic management reduces to the ability of aircraft to communicate state information to neighboring aircraft, as well as model the evolution of aircraft trajectories between communications, in the presence of probabilistic uncertain dynamics as well

Sequence Based Prediction of Antioxidant Proteins Using a Classifier Selection Strategy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lina Zhang

Full Text Available Antioxidant proteins perform significant functions in maintaining oxidation/antioxidation balance and have potential therapies for some diseases. Accurate identification of antioxidant proteins could contribute to revealing physiological processes of oxidation/antioxidation balance and developing novel antioxidation-based drugs. In this study, an ensemble method is presented to predict antioxidant proteins with hybrid features, incorporating SSI (Secondary Structure Information, PSSM (Position Specific Scoring Matrix, RSA (Relative Solvent Accessibility, and CTD (Composition, Transition, Distribution. The prediction results of the ensemble predictor are determined by an average of prediction results of multiple base classifiers. Based on a classifier selection strategy, we obtain an optimal ensemble classifier composed of RF (Random Forest, SMO (Sequential Minimal Optimization, NNA (Nearest Neighbor Algorithm, and J48 with an accuracy of 0.925. A Relief combined with IFS (Incremental Feature Selection method is adopted to obtain optimal features from hybrid features. With the optimal features, the ensemble method achieves improved performance with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 0.93, an accuracy of 0.94, and an MCC (Matthew's Correlation Coefficient of 0.880, far better than the existing method. To evaluate the prediction performance objectively, the proposed method is compared with existing methods on the same independent testing dataset. Encouragingly, our method performs better than previous studies. In addition, our method achieves more balanced performance with a sensitivity of 0.878 and a specificity of 0.860. These results suggest that the proposed ensemble method can be a potential candidate for antioxidant protein prediction. For public access, we develop a user-friendly web server for antioxidant protein identification that is freely accessible at http://antioxidant.weka.cc.

How accurate is anatomic limb alignment in predicting mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seung Ah; Choi, Sang-Hee; Chang, Moon Jong

2015-10-27

Anatomic limb alignment often differs from mechanical limb alignment after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We sought to assess the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each of three commonly used ranges for anatomic limb alignment (3-9°, 5-10° and 2-10°) in predicting an acceptable range (neutral ± 3°) for mechanical limb alignment after TKA. We also assessed whether the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment was affected by anatomic variation. This retrospective study included 314 primary TKAs. The alignment of the limb was measured with both anatomic and mechanical methods of measurement. We also measured anatomic variation, including the femoral bowing angle, tibial bowing angle, and neck-shaft angle of the femur. All angles were measured on the same full-length standing anteroposterior radiographs. The accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity for each range of anatomic limb alignment were calculated and compared using mechanical limb alignment as the reference standard. The associations between the accuracy of anatomic limb alignment and anatomic variation were also determined. The range of 2-10° for anatomic limb alignment showed the highest accuracy, but it was only 73 % (3-9°, 65 %; 5-10°, 67 %). The specificity of the 2-10° range was 81 %, which was higher than that of the other ranges (3-9°, 69 %; 5-10°, 67 %). However, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict varus malalignment was only 16 % (3-9°, 35 %; 5-10°, 68 %). In addition, the sensitivity of the 2-10° range to predict valgus malalignment was only 43 % (3-9°, 71 %; 5-10°, 43 %). The accuracy of anatomical limb alignment was lower for knees with greater femoral (odds ratio = 1.2) and tibial (odds ratio = 1.2) bowing. Anatomic limb alignment did not accurately predict mechanical limb alignment after TKA, and its accuracy was affected by anatomic variation. Thus, alignment after TKA should be assessed by measuring mechanical alignment rather than anatomic

Prediction of the mass gain during high temperature oxidation of aluminized nanostructured nickel using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

Science.gov (United States)

Hayati, M.; Rashidi, A. M.; Rezaei, A.

2012-10-01

In this paper, the applicability of ANFIS as an accurate model for the prediction of the mass gain during high temperature oxidation using experimental data obtained for aluminized nanostructured (NS) nickel is presented. For developing the model, exposure time and temperature are taken as input and the mass gain as output. A hybrid learning algorithm consists of back-propagation and least-squares estimation is used for training the network. We have compared the proposed ANFIS model with experimental data. The predicted data are found to be in good agreement with the experimental data with mean relative error less than 1.1%. Therefore, we can use ANFIS model to predict the performances of thermal systems in engineering applications, such as modeling the mass gain for NS materials.

Prediction of selected Indian stock using a partitioning–interpolation based ARIMA–GARCH model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Narendra Babu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Accurate long-term prediction of time series data (TSD is a very useful research challenge in diversified fields. As financial TSD are highly volatile, multi-step prediction of financial TSD is a major research problem in TSD mining. The two challenges encountered are, maintaining high prediction accuracy and preserving the data trend across the forecast horizon. The linear traditional models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH preserve data trend to some extent, at the cost of prediction accuracy. Non-linear models like ANN maintain prediction accuracy by sacrificing data trend. In this paper, a linear hybrid model, which maintains prediction accuracy while preserving data trend, is proposed. A quantitative reasoning analysis justifying the accuracy of proposed model is also presented. A moving-average (MA filter based pre-processing, partitioning and interpolation (PI technique are incorporated by the proposed model. Some existing models and the proposed model are applied on selected NSE India stock market data. Performance results show that for multi-step ahead prediction, the proposed model outperforms the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and preserving data trend.

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-05-15

Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

Identification and Prediction of Large Pedestrian Flow in Urban Areas Based on a Hybrid Detection Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaisheng Zhang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, population density has grown quickly with the increasing acceleration of urbanization. At the same time, overcrowded situations are more likely to occur in populous urban areas, increasing the risk of accidents. This paper proposes a synthetic approach to recognize and identify the large pedestrian flow. In particular, a hybrid pedestrian flow detection model was constructed by analyzing real data from major mobile phone operators in China, including information from smartphones and base stations (BS. With the hybrid model, the Log Distance Path Loss (LDPL model was used to estimate the pedestrian density from raw network data, and retrieve information with the Gaussian Progress (GP through supervised learning. Temporal-spatial prediction of the pedestrian data was carried out with Machine Learning (ML approaches. Finally, a case study of a real Central Business District (CBD scenario in Shanghai, China using records of millions of cell phone users was conducted. The results showed that the new approach significantly increases the utility and capacity of the mobile network. A more reasonable overcrowding detection and alert system can be developed to improve safety in subway lines and other hotspot landmark areas, such as the Bundle, People’s Square or Disneyland, where a large passenger flow generally exists.

A variable capacitance based modeling and power capability predicting method for ultracapacitor

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chang; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

Methods of accurate modeling and power capability predicting for ultracapacitors are of great significance in management and application of lithium-ion battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system. To overcome the simulation error coming from constant capacitance model, an improved ultracapacitor model based on variable capacitance is proposed, where the main capacitance varies with voltage according to a piecewise linear function. A novel state-of-charge calculation approach is developed accordingly. After that, a multi-constraint power capability prediction is developed for ultracapacitor, in which a Kalman-filter-based state observer is designed for tracking ultracapacitor's real-time behavior. Finally, experimental results verify the proposed methods. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by terminal voltage simulating results under different temperatures, and the effectiveness of the designed observer is proved by various test conditions. Additionally, the power capability prediction results of different time scales and temperatures are compared, to study their effects on ultracapacitor's power capability.

Real-time hybrid simulation using the convolution integral method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Jig; Christenson, Richard E; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F; Johnson, Erik A

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a real-time hybrid simulation method that will allow complex systems to be tested within the hybrid test framework by employing the convolution integral (CI) method. The proposed CI method is potentially transformative for real-time hybrid simulation. The CI method can allow real-time hybrid simulation to be conducted regardless of the size and complexity of the numerical model and for numerical stability to be ensured in the presence of high frequency responses in the simulation. This paper presents the general theory behind the proposed CI method and provides experimental verification of the proposed method by comparing the CI method to the current integration time-stepping (ITS) method. Real-time hybrid simulation is conducted in the Advanced Hazard Mitigation Laboratory at the University of Connecticut. A seismically excited two-story shear frame building with a magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is selected as the test structure to experimentally validate the proposed method. The building structure is numerically modeled and simulated, while the MR damper is physically tested. Real-time hybrid simulation using the proposed CI method is shown to provide accurate results

A hybrid method for forecasting the energy output of photovoltaic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsami, Pamela; Oree, Vishwamitra

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a novel hybrid technique for predicting the daily PV energy output. • Multiple linear regression, FFNN and GRNN artificial neural networks are used. • Stepwise regression is used to select the most relevant meteorological parameters. • SR-FFNN reduces the average dispersion and overall bias in prediction errors. • Accuracy metrics of hybrid models are better than those of single-stage models. - Abstract: The intermittent nature of solar energy poses many challenges to renewable energy system operators in terms of operational planning and scheduling. Predicting the output of photovoltaic systems is therefore essential for managing the operation and assessing the economic performance of power systems. This paper presents a new technique for forecasting the 24-h ahead stochastic energy output of photovoltaic systems based on the daily weather forecasts. A comparison of the performances of the hybrid technique with conventional linear regression and artificial neural network models has also been reported. Initially, three single-stage models were designed, namely the generalized regression neural network, feedforward neural network and multiple linear regression. Subsequently, a hybrid-modeling approach was adopted by applying stepwise regression to select input variables of greater importance. These variables were then fed to the single-stage models resulting in three hybrid models. They were then validated by comparing the forecasts of the models with measured dataset from an operational photovoltaic system. The accuracy of the each model was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, mean bias error and root mean square error values. Simulation results revealed that the hybrid models perform better than their corresponding single-stage models. Stepwise regression-feedforward neural network hybrid model outperformed the other models with root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean bias error and

A NEW CLINICAL PREDICTION CRITERION ACCURATELY DETERMINES A SUBSET OF PATIENTS WITH BILATERAL PRIMARY ALDOSTERONISM BEFORE ADRENAL VENOUS SAMPLING.

Science.gov (United States)

Kocjan, Tomaz; Janez, Andrej; Stankovic, Milenko; Vidmar, Gaj; Jensterle, Mojca

2016-05-01

Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the only available method to distinguish bilateral from unilateral primary aldosteronism (PA). AVS has several drawbacks, so it is reasonable to avoid this procedure when the results would not affect clinical management. Our objective was to identify a clinical criterion that can reliably predict nonlateralized AVS as a surrogate for bilateral PA that is not treated surgically. A retrospective diagnostic cross-sectional study conducted at Slovenian national endocrine referral center included 69 consecutive patients (mean age 56 ± 8 years, 21 females) with PA who underwent AVS. PA was confirmed with the saline infusion test (SIT). AVS was performed sequentially during continuous adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) infusion. The main outcome measures were variables associated with nonlateralized AVS to derive a clinical prediction rule. Sixty-seven (97%) patients had a successful AVS and were included in the statistical analysis. A total of 39 (58%) patients had nonlateralized AVS. The combined criterion of serum potassium ≥3.5 mmol/L, post-SIT aldosterone AVS. The best overall classification accuracy (50/67 = 75%) was achieved using the post-SIT aldosterone level AVS. Our clinical prediction criterion appears to accurately determine a subset of patients with bilateral PA who could avoid unnecessary AVS and immediately commence with medical treatment.

Learning a Weighted Sequence Model of the Nucleosome Core and Linker Yields More Accurate Predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2010-01-01

DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence—301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored—with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheila M Reynolds

2010-07-01

Full Text Available DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the

Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Sheila M; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William Stafford

2010-07-08

DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the

Load balancing prediction method of cloud storage based on analytic hierarchy process and hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Xiuze; Lin, Fan; Yang, Lvqing; Nie, Jing; Tan, Qian; Zeng, Wenhua; Zhang, Nian

2016-01-01

With the continuous expansion of the cloud computing platform scale and rapid growth of users and applications, how to efficiently use system resources to improve the overall performance of cloud computing has become a crucial issue. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method that uses an analytic hierarchy process group decision (AHPGD) to evaluate the load state of server nodes. Training was carried out by using a hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm (HHGA) for optimizing a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). The AHPGD makes the aggregative indicator of virtual machines in cloud, and become input parameters of predicted RBFNN. Also, this paper proposes a new dynamic load balancing scheduling algorithm combined with a weighted round-robin algorithm, which uses the predictive periodical load value of nodes based on AHPPGD and RBFNN optimized by HHGA, then calculates the corresponding weight values of nodes and makes constant updates. Meanwhile, it keeps the advantages and avoids the shortcomings of static weighted round-robin algorithm.

A Hybrid Estimator for Active/Reactive Power Control of Single-Phase Distributed Generation Systems with Energy Storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pahlevani, Majid; Eren, Suzan; Guerrero, Josep M.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new active/reactive power closed-loop control system for a hybrid renewable energy generation system used for single-phase residential/commercial applications. The proposed active/reactive control method includes a hybrid estimator, which is able to quickly and accurately es...

Supersymmetric hybrid inflation with non-minimal Kahler potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastero-Gil, M.; King, S.F.; Shafi, Q.

2007-01-01

Minimal supersymmetric hybrid inflation based on a minimal Kahler potential predicts a spectral index n s ∼>0.98. On the other hand, WMAP three year data prefers a central value n s ∼0.95. We propose a class of supersymmetric hybrid inflation models based on the same minimal superpotential but with a non-minimal Kahler potential. Including radiative corrections using the one-loop effective potential, we show that the prediction for the spectral index is sensitive to the small non-minimal corrections, and can lead to a significantly red-tilted spectrum, in agreement with WMAP

Cluster abundance in chameleon f ( R ) gravity I: toward an accurate halo mass function prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cataneo, Matteo; Rapetti, David [Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Lombriser, Lucas [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Li, Baojiu, E-mail: matteoc@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: drapetti@dark-cosmology.dk, E-mail: llo@roe.ac.uk, E-mail: baojiu.li@durham.ac.uk [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

2016-12-01

We refine the mass and environment dependent spherical collapse model of chameleon f ( R ) gravity by calibrating a phenomenological correction inspired by the parameterized post-Friedmann framework against high-resolution N -body simulations. We employ our method to predict the corresponding modified halo mass function, and provide fitting formulas to calculate the enhancement of the f ( R ) halo abundance with respect to that of General Relativity (GR) within a precision of ∼< 5% from the results obtained in the simulations. Similar accuracy can be achieved for the full f ( R ) mass function on the condition that the modeling of the reference GR abundance of halos is accurate at the percent level. We use our fits to forecast constraints on the additional scalar degree of freedom of the theory, finding that upper bounds competitive with current Solar System tests are within reach of cluster number count analyses from ongoing and upcoming surveys at much larger scales. Importantly, the flexibility of our method allows also for this to be applied to other scalar-tensor theories characterized by a mass and environment dependent spherical collapse.

Data Analytics Based Dual-Optimized Adaptive Model Predictive Control for the Power Plant Boiler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenhao Tang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To control the furnace temperature of a power plant boiler precisely, a dual-optimized adaptive model predictive control (DoAMPC method is designed based on the data analytics. In the proposed DoAMPC, an accurate predictive model is constructed adaptively by the hybrid algorithm of the least squares support vector machine and differential evolution method. Then, an optimization problem is constructed based on the predictive model and many constraint conditions. To control the boiler furnace temperature, the differential evolution method is utilized to decide the control variables by solving the optimization problem. The proposed method can adapt to the time-varying situation by updating the sample data. The experimental results based on practical data illustrate that the DoAMPC can control the boiler furnace temperature with errors of less than 1.5% which can meet the requirements of the real production process.

Control and design of volumetric composition in pultruded hybrid fibre composites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Bo; Hashemi, Fariborz; Tahir, Paridah

2016-01-01

composition (i.e. volume fractions of fibres, matrix and porosity) in hybrid fibre composites. The model is based on a constant local fibre volume fraction criterion. Good agreement is found between model predictions and experimental data of pultruded hybrid kenaf/glass fibre composites with variable hybrid...... fibre weight mixing ratios. To demonstrate the suitability of the model, simulations are performed for four different cases of volumetric composition in hybrid kenaf/glass composites....

Hybrid Density Functional Study of the Local Structures and Energy Levels of CaAl2O4:Ce3.

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Bibo; Jing, Weiguo; Lou, Liren; Zhang, Yongfan; Yin, Min; Duan, Chang-Kui

2018-05-03

First-principles calculations were carried out for the electronic structures of Ce 3+ in calcium aluminate phosphors, CaAl 2 O 4 , and their effects on luminescence properties. Hybrid density functional approaches were used to overcome the well-known underestimation of band gaps of conventional density functional approaches and to calculate the energy levels of Ce 3+ ions more accurately. The obtained 4f-5d excitation and emission energies show good consistency with measured values. A detailed energy diagram of all three sites is obtained, which explains qualitatively all of the luminescent phenomena. With the results of energy levels calculated by combining the hybrid functional of Heyd, Scuseria, and Ernzerhof (HSE06) and the constraint occupancy approach, we are able to construct a configurational coordinate diagram to analyze the processes of capture of a hole or an electron and luminescence. This approach can be applied for systematic high-throughput calculations in predicting Ce 3+ activated luminescent materials with a moderate computing requirement.

Identification of novel CYP2D7-2D6 hybrids: non-functional and functional variants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Gaedigk

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Polymorphic expression of CYP2D6 contributes to the wide range of activity observed for this clinically important drug metabolizing enzyme. In this report we describe novel CYP2D7/2D6 hybrid genes encoding non-functional and functional CYP2D6 protein and a CYP2D7 variant that mimics a CYP2D7/2D6 hybrid gene. Five kb long PCR products encompassing the novel genes were entirely sequenced. A quantitative assay probing in different gene regions was employed to determine CYP2D6 and 2D7 copy number variations and the relative position of the hybrid genes within the locus was assessed by long-range PCR. In addition to the previously known CYP2D6*13 and *66 hybrids, we describe three novel non-functional CYP2D7-2D6 hybrids with gene switching in exon 2 (CYP2D6*79, intron 2 (CYP2D6*80 and intron 5 (CYP2D6*67. A CYP2D7-specific T-ins in exon 1 causes a detrimental frame shift. One subject revealed a CYP2D7 conversion in the 5’-flanking region of a CYP2D6*35 allele, was otherwise unaffected (designated CYP2D6*35B. Finally, three DNAs revealed a CYP2D7 gene with a CYP2D6-like region downstream of exon 9 (designated CYP2D7[REP6]. Quantitative copy number determination, sequence analyses and long-range PCR mapping were in agreement and excluded the presence of additional gene units. Undetected hybrid genes may cause over-estimation of CYP2D6 activity (CYP2D6*1/*1 vs *1/hybrid, etc, but may also cause results that may interfere with the genotype determination. Detection of hybrid events, ‘single’ and tandem, will contribute to more accurate phenotype prediction from genotype data.

Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

2015-09-18

Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

Förster resonance energy transfer, absorption and emission spectra in multichromophoric systems. II. Hybrid cumulant expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jian; Moix, Jeremy; Cao, Jianshu

2015-03-07

We develop a hybrid cumulant expansion method to account for the system-bath entanglement in the emission spectrum in the multi-chromophoric Förster transfer rate. In traditional perturbative treatments, the emission spectrum is usually expanded with respect to the system-bath coupling term in both real and imaginary time. This perturbative treatment gives a reliable absorption spectrum, where the bath is Gaussian and only the real-time expansion is involved. For the emission spectrum, the initial state is an entangled state of the system plus bath. Traditional perturbative methods are problematic when the excitations are delocalized and the energy gap is larger than the thermal energy, since the second-order expansion cannot predict the displacement of the bath. In the present method, the real-time dynamics is carried out by using the 2nd-order cumulant expansion method, while the displacement of the bath is treated more accurately by utilizing the exact reduced density matrix of the system. In a sense, the hybrid cumulant expansion is based on a generalized version of linear response theory with entangled initial states.

Performance Analysis for One-Step-Ahead Forecasting of Hybrid Solar and Wind Energy on Short Time Scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Huang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available With ever increasing demand for electricity and the huge potential of renewable energy, an increasing number of renewable-energy sources are being used to generate electricity. However, due to the intermittency of renewable-energy generation, many researchers try to overcome the variable nature of renewable energy. A hybrid renewable-energy system is one possible way to introduce smoothing of the supply. Many hybrid renewable-energy studies focus on system optimization and management. This paper mainly researches the performance prediction accuracy of a hybrid solar and wind system. Through a mixed autoregressive and dynamical system model, we test the predictability of the hybrid system and compare it with individual solar and wind series forecasting. After error analysis, the predictability of the hybrid system shows a better performance than solar or wind for Adelaide global solar radiation and Starfish Hill wind farm data. The prediction errors were reduced by 13% to more than 30% according to various error analyses. This result indicates an advantage of the hybrid solar and wind system compared to solar and wind systems taken individually.

Novel hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic technique for shutdown dose rate analyses of fusion energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibrahim, Ahmad M.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Peterson, Joshua L.; Grove, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Highlights: •Develop the novel Multi-Step CADIS (MS-CADIS) hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic method for multi-step shielding analyses. •Accurately calculate shutdown dose rates using full-scale Monte Carlo models of fusion energy systems. •Demonstrate the dramatic efficiency improvement of the MS-CADIS method for the rigorous two step calculations of the shutdown dose rate in fusion reactors. -- Abstract: The rigorous 2-step (R2S) computational system uses three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport simulations to calculate the shutdown dose rate (SDDR) in fusion reactors. Accurate full-scale R2S calculations are impractical in fusion reactors because they require calculating space- and energy-dependent neutron fluxes everywhere inside the reactor. The use of global Monte Carlo variance reduction techniques was suggested for accelerating the R2S neutron transport calculation. However, the prohibitive computational costs of these approaches, which increase with the problem size and amount of shielding materials, inhibit their ability to accurately predict the SDDR in fusion energy systems using full-scale modeling of an entire fusion plant. This paper describes a novel hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic methodology that uses the Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) method but focuses on multi-step shielding calculations. The Multi-Step CADIS (MS-CADIS) methodology speeds up the R2S neutron Monte Carlo calculation using an importance function that represents the neutron importance to the final SDDR. Using a simplified example, preliminary results showed that the use of MS-CADIS enhanced the efficiency of the neutron Monte Carlo simulation of an SDDR calculation by a factor of 550 compared to standard global variance reduction techniques, and that the efficiency enhancement compared to analog Monte Carlo is higher than a factor of 10,000

A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

2018-04-01

Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

2016-10-15

Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

Genomic prediction in early selection stages using multi-year data in a hybrid rye breeding program.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernal-Vasquez, Angela-Maria; Gordillo, Andres; Schmidt, Malthe; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2017-05-31

The use of multiple genetic backgrounds across years is appealing for genomic prediction (GP) because past years' data provide valuable information on marker effects. Nonetheless, single-year GP models are less complex and computationally less demanding than multi-year GP models. In devising a suitable analysis strategy for multi-year data, we may exploit the fact that even if there is no replication of genotypes across years, there is plenty of replication at the level of marker loci. Our principal aim was to evaluate different GP approaches to simultaneously model genotype-by-year (GY) effects and breeding values using multi-year data in terms of predictive ability. The models were evaluated under different scenarios reflecting common practice in plant breeding programs, such as different degrees of relatedness between training and validation sets, and using a selected fraction of genotypes in the training set. We used empirical grain yield data of a rye hybrid breeding program. A detailed description of the prediction approaches highlighting the use of kinship for modeling GY is presented. Using the kinship to model GY was advantageous in particular for datasets disconnected across years. On average, predictive abilities were 5% higher for models using kinship to model GY over models without kinship. We confirmed that using data from multiple selection stages provides valuable GY information and helps increasing predictive ability. This increase is on average 30% higher when the predicted genotypes are closely related with the genotypes in the training set. A selection of top-yielding genotypes together with the use of kinship to model GY improves the predictive ability in datasets composed of single years of several selection cycles. Our results clearly demonstrate that the use of multi-year data and appropriate modeling is beneficial for GP because it allows dissecting GY effects from genomic estimated breeding values. The model choice, as well as ensuring

A general range-separated double-hybrid density-functional theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalai, Cairedine; Toulouse, Julien

2018-04-28

A range-separated double-hybrid (RSDH) scheme which generalizes the usual range-separated hybrids and double hybrids is developed. This scheme consistently uses a two-parameter Coulomb-attenuating-method (CAM)-like decomposition of the electron-electron interaction for both exchange and correlation in order to combine Hartree-Fock exchange and second-order Møller-Plesset (MP2) correlation with a density functional. The RSDH scheme relies on an exact theory which is presented in some detail. Several semi-local approximations are developed for the short-range exchange-correlation density functional involved in this scheme. After finding optimal values for the two parameters of the CAM-like decomposition, the RSDH scheme is shown to have a relatively small basis dependence and to provide atomization energies, reaction barrier heights, and weak intermolecular interactions globally more accurate or comparable to range-separated MP2 or standard MP2. The RSDH scheme represents a new family of double hybrids with minimal empiricism which could be useful for general chemical applications.

A hybrid approach to advancing quantitative prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs in human

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poulin, Patrick; Ekins, Sean; Theil, Frank-Peter

2011-01-01

A general toxicity of basic drugs is related to phospholipidosis in tissues. Therefore, it is essential to predict the tissue distribution of basic drugs to facilitate an initial estimate of that toxicity. The objective of the present study was to further assess the original prediction method that consisted of using the binding to red blood cells measured in vitro for the unbound drug (RBCu) as a surrogate for tissue distribution, by correlating it to unbound tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) of several tissues, and finally to predict volume of distribution at steady-state (V ss ) in humans under in vivo conditions. This correlation method demonstrated inaccurate predictions of V ss for particular basic drugs that did not follow the original correlation principle. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to provide clarity on the actual hypotheses to identify i) the impact of pharmacological mode of action on the generic correlation of RBCu-Kpu, ii) additional mechanisms of tissue distribution for the outlier drugs, iii) molecular features and properties that differentiate compounds as outliers in the original correlation analysis in order to facilitate its applicability domain alongside the properties already used so far, and finally iv) to present a novel and refined correlation method that is superior to what has been previously published for the prediction of human V ss of basic drugs. Applying a refined correlation method after identifying outliers would facilitate the prediction of more accurate distribution parameters as key inputs used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and phospholipidosis models.

Hybrid chemical and nondestructive-analysis technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsue, S.T.; Marsh, S.F.; Marks, T.

1982-01-01

A hybrid chemical/NDA technique has been applied at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to the assay of plutonium in ion-exchange effluents. Typical effluent solutions contain low concentrations of plutonium and high concentrations of americium. A simple trioctylphosphine oxide (TOPO) separation can remove 99.9% of the americium. The organic phase that contains the separated plutonium can be accurately assayed by monitoring the uranium L x-ray intensities

Reconciling EFT and hybrid calculations of the light MSSM Higgs-boson mass

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bahl, Henning; Hollik, Wolfgang [Max-Planck Institut fuer Physik, Munich (Germany); Heinemeyer, Sven [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Instituto de Fisica Teorica, (UAM/CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany)

2018-01-15

Various methods are used in the literature for predicting the lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). Fixed-order diagrammatic calculations capture all effects at a given order and yield accurate results for scales of supersymmetric (SUSY) particles that are not separated too much from the weak scale. Effective field theory calculations allow a resummation of large logarithmic contributions up to all orders and therefore yield accurate results for a high SUSY scale. A hybrid approach, where both methods have been combined, is implemented in the computer code FeynHiggs. So far, however, at large scales sizeable differences have been observed between FeynHiggs and other pure EFT codes. In this work, the various approaches are analytically compared with each other in a simple scenario in which all SUSY mass scales are chosen to be equal to each other. Three main sources are identified that account for the major part of the observed differences. Firstly, it is shown that the scheme conversion of the input parameters that is commonly used for the comparison of fixed-order results is not adequate for the comparison of results containing a series of higher-order logarithms. Secondly, the treatment of higher-order terms arising from the determination of the Higgs propagator pole is addressed. Thirdly, the effect of different parametrizations in particular of the top Yukawa coupling in the non-logarithmic terms is investigated. Taking into account all of these effects, in the considered simple scenario very good agreement is found for scales above 1 TeV between the results obtained using the EFT approach and the hybrid approach of FeynHiggs. (orig.)

Reconciling EFT and hybrid calculations of the light MSSM Higgs-boson mass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bahl, Henning; Hollik, Wolfgang; Heinemeyer, Sven; Weiglein, Georg

2017-06-01

Various methods are used in the literature for predicting the lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). Fixed-order diagrammatic calculations capture all effects at a given order and yield accurate results for scales of supersymmetric (SUSY) particles that are not separated too much from the weak scale. Effective field theory calculations allow a resummation of large logarithmic contributions up to all orders and therefore yield accurate results for a high SUSY scale. A hybrid approach, where both methods have been combined, is implemented in the computer code FeynHiggs. So far, however, at large scales sizeable differences have been observed between FeynHiggs and other pure EFT codes. In this work, the various approaches are analytically compared with each other in a simple scenario in which all SUSY mass scales are chosen to be equal to each other. Three main sources are identified that account for the major part of the observed differences. Firstly, it is shown that the scheme conversion of the input parameters that is commonly used for the comparison of fixed-order results is not adequate for the comparison of results containing a series of higher-order logarithms. Secondly, the treatment of higher-order terms arising from the determination of the Higgs propagator pole is addressed. Thirdly, the effect of different parametrizations in particular of the top Yukawa coupling in the non-logarithmic terms is investigated. Taking into account all of these effects, in the considered simple scenario very good agreement is found for scales above 1 TeV between the results obtained using the EFT approach and the hybrid approach of FeynHiggs.

Reconciling EFT and hybrid calculations of the light MSSM Higgs-boson mass

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bahl, Henning; Hollik, Wolfgang [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Heinemeyer, Sven [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Univ. Autonoma de Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Fisica Teorica; Instituto de Fisica Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Weiglein, Georg [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

2017-06-15

Various methods are used in the literature for predicting the lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). Fixed-order diagrammatic calculations capture all effects at a given order and yield accurate results for scales of supersymmetric (SUSY) particles that are not separated too much from the weak scale. Effective field theory calculations allow a resummation of large logarithmic contributions up to all orders and therefore yield accurate results for a high SUSY scale. A hybrid approach, where both methods have been combined, is implemented in the computer code FeynHiggs. So far, however, at large scales sizeable differences have been observed between FeynHiggs and other pure EFT codes. In this work, the various approaches are analytically compared with each other in a simple scenario in which all SUSY mass scales are chosen to be equal to each other. Three main sources are identified that account for the major part of the observed differences. Firstly, it is shown that the scheme conversion of the input parameters that is commonly used for the comparison of fixed-order results is not adequate for the comparison of results containing a series of higher-order logarithms. Secondly, the treatment of higher-order terms arising from the determination of the Higgs propagator pole is addressed. Thirdly, the effect of different parametrizations in particular of the top Yukawa coupling in the non-logarithmic terms is investigated. Taking into account all of these effects, in the considered simple scenario very good agreement is found for scales above 1 TeV between the results obtained using the EFT approach and the hybrid approach of FeynHiggs.

Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

Science.gov (United States)

Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

2017-11-01

This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to

Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

2008-01-01

A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

Hybrid Type II fuzzy system & data mining approach for surface finish

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tzu-Liang (Bill Tseng

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, a new methodology in predicting a system output has been investigated by applying a data mining technique and a hybrid type II fuzzy system in CNC turning operations. The purpose was to generate a supplemental control function under the dynamic machining environment, where unforeseeable changes may occur frequently. Two different types of membership functions were developed for the fuzzy logic systems and also by combining the two types, a hybrid system was generated. Genetic algorithm was used for fuzzy adaptation in the control system. Fuzzy rules are automatically modified in the process of genetic algorithm training. The computational results showed that the hybrid system with a genetic adaptation generated a far better accuracy. The hybrid fuzzy system with genetic algorithm training demonstrated more effective prediction capability and a strong potential for the implementation into existing control functions.

Hybrid Chernoff Tau-Leap

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2016-01-06

Markovian pure jump processes can model many phenomena, e.g. chemical reactions at molecular level, protein transcription and translation, spread of epidemics diseases in small populations and in wireless communication networks among many others. In this work we present a novel hybrid algorithm for simulating individual trajectories which adaptively switches between the SSA and the Chernoff tauleap methods. This allows us to: (a) control the global exit probability of any simulated trajectory, (b) obtain accurate and computable estimates for the expected value of any smooth observable of the process with minimal computational work.

Hybrid Chernoff Tau-Leap

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2015-01-07

Markovian pure jump processes can model many phenomena, e.g. chemical reactions at molecular level, protein transcription and translation, spread of epidemics diseases in small populations and in wireless communication networks among many others. In this work we present a novel hybrid algorithm for simulating individual trajectories which adaptively switches between the SSA and the Chernoff tauleap methods. This allows us to: (a) control the global exit probability of any simulated trajectory, (b) obtain accurate and computable estimates for the expected value of any smooth observable of the process with minimal computational work.

Hybrid Chernoff Tau-Leap

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2014-01-06

Markovian pure jump processes can model many phenomena, e.g. chemical reactions at molecular level, protein transcription and translation, spread of epidemics diseases in small populations and in wireless communication networks among many others. In this work we present a novel hybrid algorithm for simulating individual trajectories which adaptively switches between the SSA and the Chernoff tauleap methods. This allows us to: (a) control the global exit probability of any simulated trajectory, (b) obtain accurate and computable estimates for the expected value of any smooth observable of the process with minimal computational work.

Sensorless Suitability Analysis of Hybrid PM Machines for Electric Vehicles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matzen, Torben Nørregaard; Rasmussen, Peter Omand

2009-01-01

Electrical machines for traction in electric vehicles are an essential component which attract attention with respect to machine design and control as a part of the emerging renewable industry. For the hybrid electric machine to replace the familiar behaviour of the combustion engine torque......, control seems necessary to implement. For hybrid permanent magnet (PM) machines torque control in an indirect fashion using dq-current control is frequently done. This approach requires knowledge about the machine shaft position which may be obtained sensorless. In this article a method based on accurate...

Advanced numerical methods for uncertainty reduction when predicting heat exchanger dynamic stability limits: Review and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Longatte, E.; Baj, F.; Hoarau, Y.; Braza, M.; Ruiz, D.; Canteneur, C.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Proposal of hybrid computational methods for investigating dynamical system stability. ► Modeling turbulence disequilibrium due to interaction with moving solid boundaries. ► Providing computational procedure for large size system solution approximation through model reduction. -- Abstract: This article proposes a review of recent and current developments in the modeling and advanced numerical methods used to simulate large-size systems involving multi-physics in the field of mechanics. It addresses the complex issue of stability analysis of dynamical systems submitted to external turbulent flows and aims to establish accurate stability maps applicable to heat exchanger design. The purpose is to provide dimensionless stability limit modeling that is suitable for a variety of configurations and is as accurate as possible in spite of the large scale of the systems to be considered. The challenge lies in predicting local effects that may impact global systems. A combination of several strategies that are suited concurrently to multi-physics, multi-scale and large-size system computation is therefore required. Based on empirical concepts, the heuristic models currently used in the framework of standard stability analysis suffer from a lack of predictive capabilities. On the other hand, numerical approaches based on fully-coupled fluid–solid dynamics system computation remain expensive due to the multi-physics patterns of physics and the large number of degrees of freedom involved. In this context, since experimentation cannot be achieved and numerical simulation is unavoidable but prohibitive, a hybrid strategy is proposed in order to take advantage of both numerical local solutions and empirical global solutions

Predictions for Boson-Jet Observables and Fragmentation Function Ratios from a Hybrid Strong/Weak Coupling Model for Jet Quenching

CERN Document Server

Casalderrey-Solana, Jorge; Milhano, José Guilherme; Pablos, Daniel; Rajagopal, Krishna

2016-01-01

We have previously introduced a hybrid strong/weak coupling model for jet quenching in heavy ion collisions that describes the production and fragmentation of jets at weak coupling, using PYTHIA, and describes the rate at which each parton in the jet shower loses energy as it propagates through the strongly coupled plasma, dE/dx, using an expression computed holographically at strong coupling. The model has a single free parameter that we fit to a single experimental measurement. We then confront our model with experimental data on many other jet observables, focusing here on boson-jet observables, finding that it provides a good description of present jet data. Next, we provide the predictions of our hybrid model for many measurements to come, including those for inclusive jet, dijet, photon-jet and Z-jet observables in heavy ion collisions with energy $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ ATeV coming soon at the LHC. As the statistical uncertainties on near-future measurements of photon-jet observables are expected to be much sm...

Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Tuba, Zoltán; Bottyán, Zsolt

2018-04-01

Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1-0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000-2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.