WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Evaluation of severe accident environmental conditions taking accident management strategy into account for equipment survivability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Chul; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Soong Pyung

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology utilizing accident management strategy in order to determine accident environmental conditions in equipment survivability assessments. In case that there is well-established accident management strategy for specific nuclear power plant, an application of this tool can provide a technical rationale on equipment survivability assessment so that plant-specific and time-dependent accident environmental conditions could be practically and realistically defined in accordance with the equipment and instrumentation required for accident management strategy or action appropriately taken. For this work, three different tools are introduced; Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) outcomes, major accident management strategy actions, and Accident Environmental Stages (AESs). In order to quantitatively investigate an applicability of accident management strategy to equipment survivability, the accident simulation for a most likely scenario in Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants (KSNPs) is performed with MAAP4 code. The Accident Management Guidance (AMG) actions such as the Reactor Control System (RCS) depressurization, water injection into the RCS, the containment pressure and temperature control, and hydrogen concentration control in containment are applied. The effects of these AMG actions on the accident environmental conditions are investigated by comparing with those from previous normal accident simulation, especially focused on equipment survivability assessment. As a result, the AMG-involved case shows the higher accident consequences along the accident environmental stages

  2. Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

    1990-10-01

    A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

  3. An assessment the severe accident equipment survivability for the Korean Next Generation Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, B. C.; Moon, Y. T.; Park, J. W.; Kho, H. J.; Lee, S. W.

    1999-01-01

    One of the prominent design approaches to cope with the severe accident challenges in the Korean Next Generation Reactor is an assessment of equipment survivability in the severe accident environment at early design stage. In compliance with 10CFR50.34(f) and SECY-93-087, this work addresses that a reasonable level of assurance be provided to demonstrate that sufficient instrumentation and equipment will survive the consequences of a severe accident and will be available so that the operator may recover from and trend severe core damage sequences, including those scenarios which result in 100 percent oxidation of the active fuel cladding. An analytical and systematic approach was used to identify the equipment and instrumentation of safety-function and define severe accident environments including temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation before and after the reactor vessel breach. As a result, it was concluded that with minor exceptions, existing design basis equipment qualification methods are sufficient to provide a reasonable level of assurance that this equipment will function during a severe accident. Furthermore, supplemental severe accident equipment and instrument procurement requirements were identified. (author)

  4. Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the

  5. Survival, neurological recovery and morbidity after spinal cord injuries following road accidents in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchvaloon, E; Front, L; Gelernter, I; Ronen, J; Bluvshtein, V; Catz, A

    2008-02-01

    A retrospective cohort study. Assess outcomes in patients with spinal cord injuries (SCI) following road accidents, and factors that affect them. Loewenstein Rehabilitation Hospital, Raanana, Israel. A total of 143 patients admitted for rehabilitation between 1962 and 2004. Survival rates were estimated using the product limit (Kaplan-Meyer) method and their association with risk factors was analyzed with the Cox model. Neurological recovery was determined by comparing the Frankel grade at admission to rehabilitation and at discharge. The relation between recovery and various factors was tested with logistic regression. The risk of SCI in road accidents is higher among car drivers and motorcycle or bicycle riders. Median survival was 43 years. Survival was negatively associated with age at injury (Ppressure sores (P=0.0065). Recovery of at least one Frankel grade occurred in 29.1% of patients. Useful recovery (upgrade to Frankel grade D or E) occurred in 23.1% of all patients. Neurological recovery was negatively associated with the severity of neurological deficit (Ppressure sores and those of the urinary and respiratory systems. In SCI following road accidents, survival rates were higher and recovery rates lower than in mixed types of trauma. This may be related to better compensation followed by better nursing for road accident victims in Israel, which may prevent life-shortening complications, and to more severe injuries caused by road accidents.

  6. Time to death analysis of road traffic accidents in relation to delta V, drunk driving, and restraint systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Yonghan; Sohn, So Young

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to identify variables related to the expected time to death due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). Such research is expected to be useful in improving safety laws and regulations and developing new safety systems. The resulting information is crucial not only for reducing accident fatalities but for assessing related insurance policies. In this article, we analyze factors that are potentially associated with variation in the expected survival time after a road traffic accident using Weibull regression. In particular, we consider the association with alcohol involvement, delta V, and restraint systems. Our empirical results, obtained based on the NASS-CDS, indicate that the expected survival time for non-alcohol-impaired drivers is 3.23 times longer at a delta V of 50 km/h than that for alcohol-impaired drivers under the same conditions. In addition, it was observed that, even when occupants were alcohol-impaired, if they were protected by both air bags and seat belts, their expected survival time after an RTA increased 2.59-fold compared to alcohol-impaired drivers who used only seat belts. Our findings may be useful in improving road traffic safety and insurance policies by offering insights into the factors that reduce fatalities.

  7. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  8. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  9. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  10. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T.; Lee, So I.

    2014-01-01

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident

  11. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  12. Study of evacuation times based on recent accident history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    A key parameter in the calculation of accident dose-risks by the RADTRAN 4 code is the time assigned for evacuation of the affected area surrounding the accident. Currently, in the interest of assured conservatism, this time is set at 24 hrs. Casual anecdotal evidence has indicated that this value is overly conservative and results in assignment of overly conservative estimates of accident dose-risk. Therefore, a survey of recent truck accidents involving various hazardous materials which required evacuation of surrounding populations reported in various news media was undertaken. Accounts of pertinent scenarios were gleaned from databases citing newspapers and other periodicals, and the local authorities involved in each were contacted to get details of the evacuation including time required. This paper presents the data obtained in the study and the resultant mean evacuation time plus limits and factors influencing specific results together with conclusions regarding the appropriate value to be used in the RADTRAN 4 code

  13. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuuli Lahti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.

  14. Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanore, J.M.; Villeroux, C.; Bouscatie, F.; Maigret, N.

    1981-09-01

    There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

  15. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  16. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  17. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  18. Survivability Assessment: Modeling A Recovery Process

    OpenAIRE

    Paputungan, Irving Vitra; Abdullah, Azween

    2009-01-01

    Survivability is the ability of a system to continue operating, in a timely manner, in the presence ofattacks, failures, or accidents. Recovery in survivability is a process of a system to heal or recover from damageas early as possible to fulfill its mission as condition permit. In this paper, we show a preliminary recoverymodel to enhance the system survivability. The model focuses on how we preserve the system and resumes itscritical service under attacks as soon as possible.Keywords: surv...

  19. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  20. Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varughese; Allen

    2001-01-01

    Objective: This study examines specific hypotheses that both sleep loss and behavioral changes occurring with the time shifts for Daylight Savings Time (DST) significantly effect the number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States of America.Background: It has been reported that there is a significant increase in the number of automobile accidents in the spring shift to DST due to the loss of 1 h of sleep. But the extra hour gained at night with the shift from DST in the fall has been variably reported to be associated with increases and decreases in the number of automobile accidents which may reflect either behavioral anticipation with an extended late night prior to the change or the benefit of extra sleep after the change.Methods: Data from 21 years of United States' fatal automobile accidents were gathered. The mean number of accidents on the days at the time of the shifts (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) was compared to the average of the corresponding mean number of accidents on the matching day of the weeks preceding and following the shift. This was repeated for each DST shift. The number of accidents for a particular shift was also correlated with the year of the accidents.Results: There was a significant increase in accidents for the Monday immediately following the spring shift to DST (t=1.92, P=0.034). There was also a significant increase in number of accidents on the Sunday of the fall shift from DST (P<0.002). No significant changes were observed for the other days. A significant negative correlation with the year was found between the number of accidents on the Saturdays and Sundays but not Mondays.Conclusions: The sleep deprivation on the Monday following shift to DST in the spring results in a small increase in fatal accidents. The behavioral adaptation anticipating the longer day on Sunday of the shift from DST in the fall leads to an increased number of accidents suggesting an increase in late night (early Sunday morning) driving when

  1. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lönnqvist Jouko

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment.

  2. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahti, Tuuli A; Haukka, Jari; Lönnqvist, Jouko; Partonen, Timo

    2008-01-01

    Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment. PMID:18302734

  3. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  4. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population's traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Youngok; Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people's traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people's traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people's traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers' traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims' hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers' hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future.

  5. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  6. Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

  7. Instrumentation Performance during the TMI-2 Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rempe, Joy L.; Knudson, Darrell L.

    2013-06-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI- 2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focused upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this paper. As noted within this paper, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident program to evaluate sensor survivability status and data qualification, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this paper provides recommendations related to sensor survivability and the data evaluation process that could be implemented in upcoming Fukushima Daiichi recovery efforts. (authors)

  8. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heydari Seyed Taghi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran

  9. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population’s traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people’s traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people’s traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people’s traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers’ traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims’ hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers’ hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future. PMID:29768453

  10. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  11. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  13. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITY TO AVOID A RUNNING-DOW ACCIDENT TIMELY BRAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarayev, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.

  14. Analysis of space-time core dynamics on reactor accident at Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takano, Makoto; Shindo, Ryuichi; Yamashita, Kiyonobu; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    1987-05-01

    Regarding reactor accident at Chernobyl in USSR, core dynamics has been analyzed by COMIC code which solves space-time dependent diffusion equation in three-dimension taking spatial thermohydraulic effect into account. The code was originally developed for high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR), however, has been modified to include light water as coolant, instead of helium, for analysis of the accident. In the analysis, emphasis is placed on spatial effects on core dynamics. The analyses are performed for the cases of modeling the core fully and partially where 6 fuel channels surround one control rod channel. The result shows that the speed of applying void reactivity averaged over the core depends on the power and coolant flow distributions. Therefore, these distributions have potential to influence on the value and the time of peak power estimated by calculation. (author)

  15. Evaluation of median survival patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia exposed ionizing radiation by the Chornobyl accident, depending on the aminoacid composition of stromal fibroblasts bone marrow and indicators of myelogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebeshko, V.G.; Bruslova, K.M.; Tsvjetkova, N.M.; Pushkar'ova, T.Yi.; Panchenko, L.M.; Yatsemirs'kij, S.N.; Volodyina, T.T.; Lyashenko, L.O.

    2015-01-01

    The aminoacid composition in the stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and indexes of hemogram in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemias, which exposed to radiation from the Chornobyl accident, for evaluation of the median survival was investigated. In the study 54 patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, residents of Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine were involved. Effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts colony forming units of bone marrow and aminoacid composition of fibroblasts were studied. Bone marrow examination was conducted on day 33 and after stop of chemotherapy, the median survival of patients and exposure dose were evaluated. In children with acute leukemias effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow was 2-2.3 times lower than normative. Correlation (r_s = +0.83) between the number of erythroid progenitor cells in the bone marrow and proline content in stromal fibroblasts established . The correlation between patients median survival and number of granulocytes in myelogram (r_s = + 0.82) was proven. Mean exposure doses in patients was (5.86 ±1.11) mSv and it did not correlate with myelogram results, effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and median survival. The median survival of patients with acute leukemias depends on the content of amino acids in stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and recover of hematopoiesis after chemotherapy

  16. Personal, place, and time characteristics of offshore accidents in five oil companies operating in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahardjo; Sudjoko; Sebayang

    1991-01-01

    This study is to determine personal, place and time characteristics of offshore accidents during the year of 1987, 1988 and 1989 of five oil companies operating in Indonesia. Age, length of service, employment status, job characteristics, work cycles, work schedules, marital status, citizenship, disability, anatomy and nature of accident

  17. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2014-05-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  18. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2013-03-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  19. Treatment of whole-body radiation accident victims

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drum, D.E.; Rappeport, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses how whole-body radiation exposure incidents present a number of unique challenges. The acute, nonstochastic effects of high doses of radiation over 25 rads (0.25 Gy) delivered to humans is generally manifest in rather categorical fashion; depending on the dose, either the patient is largely unharmed functionally or he is seriously injured. Radiation initiates microchemical changes within a nanosecond time frame; there exists no specific therapy to stop or reverse the sequence of events that follow. Thus, the range for effective therapeutic intervention is rather small, between 150 to 1500 rad (1.5 to 15 Gy) for humans. Nevertheless, it is likely that a large uncomplicated exposure to as much as 750 rad (7.5 Gy) might be survivable without dramatic measures such as bone marrow transplantation. Review of the available information about past accidents shows that the majority of radiation accidents are mixed injuries

  20. Swedish approach to information needs in severe accident situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soederman, E. (ES-Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Karnik, P. (ES-Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    1992-07-01

    In Sweden, systems for mitigating severe accidents have been installed at all plants and procedures have been implemented for accident management. This work has included the assessment of needs of information and the survivability of existing instrumentation during the various phases of an accident scenario. The approach has been pragmatic and based on existing knowledge of accident phenomenology and MAAP code calculations together with plant staff experience of detailed plant design and installation. During the early phases of accidents, which is defined to remain up to maximum fuel temperatures in the order of 800 C, the ordinary instrumentation is to a great extent useful. The reactor vessel level measurement is however identified to be weak in BWRs as soon as the core is partly uncovered. This has lead to the development of a Core Cooling Monitor. In later phases of accident scenarios, the general basis has been that no intrumentation inside the containment can survive. It has been analysed what information is strictly needed. It has been found that detailed information of the status inside the pressure vessel is of little importance after vessel penetration. Certain important information needs have been identified, that was not safely accessible from existing instrumentation. This had lead to complementary installations, using instruments inserted into the containment through protected guide tubes. Also for sampling of gas and water complementary installations have been made. (orig.)

  1. Swedish approach to information needs in severe accident situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederman, E.; Karnik, P.

    1992-01-01

    In Sweden, systems for mitigating severe accidents have been installed at all plants and procedures have been implemented for accident management. This work has included the assessment of needs of information and the survivability of existing instrumentation during the various phases of an accident scenario. The approach has been pragmatic and based on existing knowledge of accident phenomenology and MAAP code calculations together with plant staff experience of detailed plant design and installation. During the early phases of accidents, which is defined to remain up to maximum fuel temperatures in the order of 800 C, the ordinary instrumentation is to a great extent useful. The reactor vessel level measurement is however identified to be weak in BWRs as soon as the core is partly uncovered. This has lead to the development of a Core Cooling Monitor. In later phases of accident scenarios, the general basis has been that no intrumentation inside the containment can survive. It has been analysed what information is strictly needed. It has been found that detailed information of the status inside the pressure vessel is of little importance after vessel penetration. Certain important information needs have been identified, that was not safely accessible from existing instrumentation. This had lead to complementary installations, using instruments inserted into the containment through protected guide tubes. Also for sampling of gas and water complementary installations have been made. (orig.)

  2. Dose-dependent analysis of acute medical effects of mixed neutron-gamma radiation from selected severe 235U or 239Pu criticality accidents in USSR, United States, and Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barabanova, Tatyana; Wiley, Albert L; Bushmanov, Andrey

    2012-04-01

    Eight of the most severe cases of acute radiation disease (ARS) known to have occurred in humans (as the result of criticality accidents) had survival times less than 120 h (herein defined as "early death"). These accidents were analyzed and are discussed with respect to the specific accident scenarios and the resulting accident-specific, mixed neutron-gamma radiation clinical dose distributions. This analysis concludes that the cardiovascular system appears to be the most critical organ system failure for causing "early death" following approximate total body, mixed gamma-neutron radiation doses greater than 40-50 Gy. The clinical data also suggest that there was definite chest dose dependence in the resulting survival times for these eight workers, who unfortunately suffered profound radiation injury and unusual clinical effects from such high dose radiation exposures. In addition, "toxemic syndrome" is correlated with the irradiation of large volumes of soft tissues. Doses to the hands or legs greater than 80-100 Gy or radiation lung injury also play significant but secondary roles in causing "early death" in accidents delivering chest doses greater than 50 Gy.

  3. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  4. Early morning awakening and nonrestorative sleep are associated with increased minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Wang, Mei-Yeh; Chang, Cheng-Kuei; Chen, Ching-Min; Chou, Kuei-Ru; Tsai, Jen-Chen; Tsai, Pei-Shan

    2014-10-01

    The relationship between a composite measure of insomnia and occupational or fatal accidents has been investigated previously; however, little is known regarding the effect of various insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. We investigated the predicting role of insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. Data from the 2005 Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey of 36,473 Taiwanese aged ≥18 years were analyzed in 2013. Insomnia symptoms, including difficulty in initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty in maintaining sleep (DMS), early morning awakening (EMA), and nonrestorative sleep (NRS) were investigated. A minor non-fatal accident was defined as any mishap such as forgetting to turn off the gas or faucets, accidental falls, and abrasions or cuts occurring during work and leisure time in the past month that do not require immediate medical attention. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) of minor non-fatal accidents (as a binary variable) for each insomnia symptom compared with those of people presenting no symptoms, while controlling for possible confounders. EMA and NRS increased the odds of minor non-fatal accidents occurring during work and leisure time (adjusted OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.32 and adjusted OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.17-1.37, respectively). EMA and NRS are two symptoms that are significantly associated with an increased likelihood of minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time after adjusting for of a range of covariates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluation of downmotion time interval molten materials to core catcher during core disruptive accidents postulated in LMFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voronov, S.A.; Kiryushin, A.I.; Kuzavkov, N.G.; Vlasichev, G.N.

    1994-01-01

    Hypothetical core disruptive accidents are postulated to clear potential of a reactor plant to withstand extreme conditions and to generate measures for management and mitigation of accidents consequence. In Russian advanced reactors there is a core catcher below the diagrid to prevent vessel bottom melting and to localize fuel debris. In this paper the calculation technique and estimation of relocation time of molten fuel and materials are presented in the case of core disruptive accidents postulated for LMFR reactor. To evaluate minimum interval of fuel relocation time the calculations for different initial data are provided. Large mass of materials between the core and the catcher in LMFR reactor hinders molten materials relocation toward the vessel bottom. That condition increases the time interval of reaching core catcher by molten fuel. Computations performed allowed to evaluate the minimum molten materials relocation time from the core to the core catcher. This time interval is in a range of 3.5-5.5 hours. (author)

  6. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, S. J.; Choi, B. H.; Jung, S. Y.; Rim, Chun T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  9. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, S. J.; Choi, B. H.; Jung, S. Y.; Rim, Chun T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  10. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  11. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  12. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  13. Temporary jobs and the severity of workplace accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picchio, Matteo; van Ours, Jan C

    2017-06-01

    From the point of view of workplace safety, it is important to know whether having a temporary job has an effect on the severity of workplace accidents. We present an empirical analysis on the severity of workplace accidents by type of contract. We used microdata collected by the Italian national institute managing the mandatory insurance against work related accidents. We estimated linear models for a measure of the severity of the workplace accident. We controlled for time-invariant fixed effects at worker and firm levels to disentangle the impact of the type of contract from the spurious one induced by unobservables at worker and firm levels. Workers with a temporary contract, if subject to a workplace accident, were more likely to be confronted with severe injuries than permanent workers. When correcting the statistical analysis for injury under-reporting of temporary workers, we found that most of, but not all, the effect is driven by the under-reporting bias. The effect of temporary contracts on the injury severity survived the inclusion of worker and firm fixed effects and the correction for temporary workers' injury under-reporting. This, however, does not exclude the possibility that, within firms, the nature of the work may vary between different categories of workers. For example, temporary workers might be more likely to be assigned dangerous tasks because they might have less bargaining power. The findings will help in designing public policy effective in increasing temporary workers' safety at work and limiting their injury under-reporting. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Diffuse vascular injury in fatal road traffic accident victims: its relationship to diffuse axonal injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittella, José E H; Gusmão, Sebastião N S

    2003-05-01

    The authors have reported a macro- and microscopic study of brain lesions in 120 victims of fatal road traffic accidents, independent of the survival time. Diffuse vascular injury (DVI) was found in 14 patients (11.7%). All patients with DVI died within 24 h after the accident. The 14 patients with DVI also showed severe (Grade 2 or 3) diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Since DVI is restricted to road traffic accidents and incompatible with life, the high frequency observed in our series could be explained by the fact that all 120 patients were victims of road traffic accidents, and 69.2% had died within 24 h after the accident. The association between DVI and severe DAI (Grades 2 and 3) suggests that both lesions depend on the same mechanism, with the degree of axonal and vascular damage being determined by the intensity of the head acceleration. Our results show a relationship between DVI and DAI that suggest there may be a spectrum or at least a continuum between these entities as distinct from DVI being a separate entity.

  16. The Importance of Bloodstain Pattern Analysis in the Investigation of Road Traffic Accidents: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younis M. Albalooshi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bloodstain pattern analysis has become a field of specialization in Forensic sciences and plays an important role in the reconstruction of events at a crime scene. Research, books, and articles have been published on the analysis and interpretation of bloodstain patterns We present a case study of a road traffic accident in which bloodstain pattern analysis helped us to solve the discrepancy between reports produced by forensic examiners and by the forensic biology department. The case was of a 22-year-old man who died immediately and a 31- year-old woman who survived a road traffic accident. They were both found outside their overturned car and it was impossible to ascertain from initial observations which of the victims was driving the car at the time of the accident. An external examination of the man revealed multiple injuries, and the cause of his death was severe brain injury. The woman survived with a fracture of the forearm, dislocated clavicle bone, and other minor injuries. After initial examination of the car and based on the pattern of injuries the deceased received, forensic examiner concluded that the man was the driving the car at the time of accident. On the other hand, the forensic DNA analysis of bloodstains obtained from the driver's seat matched that of the woman, suggesting that she was the driver. This apparent discrepancy directed the forensic examiner to carry out a bloodstain pattern analysis on the driver's seat. The bloodstain pattern analysis helped resolve the discrepancy and enabled the investigators to identify the driver correctly. This case report emphasizes the importance of bloodstain pattern analysis in the reconstruction of cases involving road traffic accidents.

  17. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinayak V Dixit

    Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  18. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak V; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  19. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak V.; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J.

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems. PMID:27997566

  20. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  1. Design features of ACR in severe accident mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, H.; Krishnan, V.S.; Santamaura, P.; Lekakh, B.; Blahnik, C.

    2007-01-01

    New reactor designs require the evaluation of design alternatives to reduce the radiological risk by preventing severe accidents or by limiting releases from the plant in the event of such accidents. The Advanced CANDU Reactor TM (ACR TM ) design has provisions to prevent and mitigate severe accidents. This paper describes key ACR design features for severe accident mitigation. It provides a high-level overview of the findings to date. Several design provisions have not yet been finalized or decided, but the designers are keenly aware of the SAM concepts and their requirements. The active heat sinks for 'vessels' (i.e., the fuel channels, the calandria vessel, the calandria end-shields and the calandria vault) are all amply capable of dissipating the severe accident heat loads. These heat sinks are designed to be operable under severe accident environmental conditions; however, their operability is yet to be confirmed by assessments. The active heat sinks for the various process vessels are 'backed up' by passive heat sinks (i.e., steaming plus water make-up from the RWS). The supply side of passive heat sinks is simple, rugged, and not vulnerable to failures of plant systems. The importance of the steam relief side is recognized, and the adequate relief capacity will be provided. The passive heat sinks will give the SAM more than 1 day (likely several days) to diagnose the accident and to establish the ultimate heat sinks. The spray system for containment pressure suppression is designed for high reliability and has ample capacity to ensure low containment leakage without external intervention, after which time alternative supply to the sprays can be brought on line manually. The sprays are backed up by the LACs which are assessed for operability following a severe accident. The strong ACR containment will provide a long time of completely passive protection for any severe accident at decay power. Its characteristics are not prone to catastrophic failures. The

  2. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  3. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

  4. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded...

  5. Real-time assessment of radiation burden of the population in the vicinity of nuclear power plants during radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubna, M.

    1986-01-01

    The method is presented of real-time calculation of the radiation situation (dose equivalents) in the environs of a nuclear power plant in case of an accident involving the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere, this for the potentially most significant exposure paths in the initial and medium stages of the accident. The method allows to take into consideration the time dependence of the rate of radioactive substance release from the nuclear power plant and to assess the development in space and time of the radiation situation in the environs of the nuclear power plant. The use of the method is illustrated by an example of the calculation of the development of the radiation situation for model accidents of a hypothetical PWR with containment. (author)

  6. Characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in a series of 98 patients with giant cell arteritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenone, Thierry; Puget, Marie

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in patients with giant cell arteritis. Retrospective data were collected from 98 patients at a single hospital with giant cell arteritis (according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) diagnosed between October 1999 and January 2012. Cerebrovascular accident was found at initial presentation in 6 patients (6.1 %, 95 % CIs 2.3-12.9). Most of them had other symptoms of giant cell arteritis when the disease began. Signs reflecting the involvement of vertebro-basilar territory were present in 3 cases. No other case of cerebrovascular accident was described during the follow-up of patient; particularly no case of cerebrovascular accident occurred once corticosteroid therapy for the treatment of giant cell arteritis had been initiated. No differences in the epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory features at the time of diagnosis between patients who had cerebrovascular accidents and the rest of the giant cell arteritis patients were observed. Prognosis was good in our survey. However, there was no case of bilateral vertebral artery occlusion, a condition associated with poor prognosis. The present study confirms that cerebrovascular accidents may be the initial manifestation of giant cell arteritis, an argument in favor of a direct effect of the vasculitis in the development of cerebrovascular accidents rather than a complication of the corticosteroid therapy. The diagnosis of giant cell arteritis should always be considered in an elderly patient with stroke and an unexplained elevation of inflammatory biomarkers.

  7. Median survival time of patients after transcatheter chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haider, Z.; Haq, T.; Munir, K.; Usman, M.U.; Azeemuddin, M.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine the effect on survival after trans arterial chemo embolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: Radiology Department, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, from December 1997 to September 2005. Patients and Methods: Patients undergoing TACE procedure for HCC were prospectively followed. Forty three patients were enrolled from December 1997 to March 2003 in the study and subjected to chemo embolization therapy. Eight out of 43 patients were excluded from the study, who lost to follow-up. All the patients were followed till their death. Median and mean survival were calculated. Results: The median survival of these 35 patients was 410 days (13.6 months), with 95% confidence interval (236 days lower bound and 536 days upper bound). Mean survival time was 603 days (20.1 months) with 95% confidence interval (394 days lower bound and 812 days upper bound). There was significant difference in mean survival time (in days) by Child's Pugh class (X2 = 12.384; df=2, p-value=0.002). Conclusion: The study showed that TACE is an effective palliative treatment. TACE increases the median survival time. (author)

  8. The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajendragadkar, Parag R; Moualed, Daniel J; Nicolson, Phillip L R; Adjei, Felicia D; Cakebread, Holly E; Duehmke, Rudolf M; Martin, Claire A

    2013-12-14

    To quantify the consumption of chocolates in a hospital ward environment. Multicentre, prospective, covert observational study. Four wards at three hospitals (where the authors worked) within the United Kingdom. Boxes of Quality Street (Nestlé) and Roses (Cadbury) on the ward and anyone eating these chocolates. Observers covertly placed two 350 g boxes of Quality Street and Roses chocolates on each ward (eight boxes were used in the study containing a total of 258 individual chocolates). These boxes were kept under continuous covert surveillance, with the time recorded when each chocolate was eaten. Median survival time of a chocolate. 191 out of 258 (74%) chocolates were observed being eaten. The mean total observation period was 254 minutes (95% confidence interval 179 to 329). The median survival time of a chocolate was 51 minutes (39 to 63). The model of chocolate consumption was non-linear, with an initial rapid rate of consumption that slowed with time. An exponential decay model best fitted these findings (model R(2)=0.844, P<0.001), with a survival half life (time taken for 50% of the chocolates to be eaten) of 99 minutes. The mean time taken to open a box of chocolates from first appearance on the ward was 12 minutes (95% confidence interval 0 to 24). Quality Street chocolates survived longer than Roses chocolates (hazard ratio for survival of Roses v Quality Street 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.93, P=0.014). The highest percentages of chocolates were consumed by healthcare assistants (28%) and nurses (28%), followed by doctors (15%). From our observational study, chocolate survival in a hospital ward was relatively short, and was modelled well by an exponential decay model. Roses chocolates were preferentially consumed to Quality Street chocolates in a ward setting. Chocolates were consumed primarily by healthcare assistants and nurses, followed by doctors. Further practical studies are needed.

  9. Association between time to disease progression end points and overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simron Singh,1 Xufang Wang,2 Calvin HL Law1 1Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Center, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Novartis Oncology, Florham Park, NJ, USA Abstract: Overall survival can be difficult to determine for slowly progressing malignancies, such as neuroendocrine tumors. We investigated whether time to disease progression is positively associated with overall survival in patients with such tumors. A literature review identified 22 clinical trials in patients with neuroendocrine tumors that reported survival probabilities for both time to disease progression (progression-free survival and time to progression and overall survival. Associations between median time to disease progression and median overall survival and between treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival were analyzed using weighted least-squares regression. Median time to disease progression was significantly associated with median overall survival (coefficient 0.595; P=0.022. In the seven randomized studies identified, the risk reduction for time to disease progression was positively associated with the risk reduction for overall survival (coefficient on −ln[HR] 0.151; 95% confidence interval −0.843, 1.145; P=0.713. The significant association between median time to disease progression and median overall survival supports the assertion that time to disease progression is an alternative end point to overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. An apparent albeit not significant trend correlates treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival. Informal surveys of physicians’ perceptions are consistent with these concepts, although additional randomized trials are needed. Keywords: neuroendocrine tumors, progression-free survival, disease progression, mortality

  10. Construction industry accidents in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camino López, Miguel A; Ritzel, Dale O; Fontaneda, Ignacio; González Alcantara, Oscar J

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzed industrial accidents that take place on construction sites and their severity. Eighteen variables were studied. We analyzed the influence of each of these with respect to the severity and fatality of the accident. This descriptive analysis was grounded in 1,630,452 accidents, representing the total number of accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector in Spain over the period 1990-2000. It was shown that age, type of contract, time of accident, length of service in the company, company size, day of the week, and the remainder of the variables under analysis influenced the seriousness of the accident. IMPACT ON INJURY PREVENTION: The results obtained show that different training was needed, depending on the severity of accidents, for different age, length of service in the company, organization of work, and time when workers work. The research provides an insight to the likely causes of construction injuries in Spain. As a result of the analysis, industries and governmental agencies in Spain can start to provide appropriate strategies and training to the construction workers.

  11. School accidents to children: time to act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maitra, A

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile of injuries sustained by children in school accidents and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN: A five month prospective study of children attending an urban accident and emergency (A&E) department. SUBJECTS: 500 children who sustained injuries in school due to a variety of activities. RESULTS: 10 and 12 year old pupils suffered most injuries in school grounds/playgrounds, on concrete, or on grass/soil surfaces due to random activities resulting in striking or being struck by objects/persons, tripping or slipping, and sports (mainly football); 65.5% of these activities were not supervised and 67.4% occurred "out of lessons"; 22% sustained fractures or dislocations, 28.2% needed follow up treatment, and 1.4% were admitted. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries to children in school are a cause for concern. Effective preventive measures should concentrate on (a) specific target areas using schemes based on individual school, and (b) establishing a credible system of monitoring of their effectiveness. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:9248914

  12. Managing severe reactor accidents. A review and evaluation of our knowledge on reactor accidents and accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, Veine

    2002-11-01

    The report gives a review of the results from the last years research on severe reactor accidents, and an opinion on the possibilities to refine the present strategies for accident management in Swedish and Finnish BWRs. The following aspect of reactor accidents are the major themes of the study: 1. Early pressure relief from hydrogen production; 2. Recriticality in re-flooded, degraded core; 3. Melt-through; 4. Steam explosion after melt-through; 5. Coolability of the melt after after melt-through; 6. Hydrogen fire in the reactor containment; 7. Leaking containment; 8. Hydrogen fire in the reactor building; 9. Long-time developments after a severe accident; 10. Accidents during shutdown for overhaul; 11. Information need for remedial actions. Possibilities for improving the strategies in each of these areas are discussed. The review shows that our knowledge is sufficient in the areas 1, 2, 4, 6, 8. For the other areas, more research is needed

  13. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached byfocusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kindof substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time.The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “everlivingpresent.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complexholistic”theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductorymatter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternalrecurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is atreatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations inthe n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have doneaway with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives aseternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of thenature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notionof holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory.I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence ofactual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in hisreflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentiallymore integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in thelast section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin,as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’sinspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretationleads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of itsreconciliation with the once-only view

  14. Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

    2014-04-01

    According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

  15. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  16. On the Survival Time of a Duplex System: A Sokhotski-Plemelj Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmond J. Vanderperre

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the survival time of a renewable duplex system characterized by warm standby and subjected to a priority rule. In order to obtain the Laplace transform of the survival function, we employ a stochastic process endowed with time-dependent transition measures satisfying coupled partial differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions combined with the notion of dual transforms. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a prescribed security level and a suitable risk criterion based on the survival function of the system. As an example, we consider the particular case of deterministic repair. A computer-plotted graph displays the survival function together with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90%.

  17. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  18. Strand V: Education for Survival. First Aid and Survival Education. Health Curriculum Materials Grades 10-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Secondary Curriculum Development.

    GRADES OR AGES: Grades 10-12. SUBJECT MATTER: First aid and survival education. ORGANIZATION AND PHYSICAL APPEARANCE: The guide is divided into six sections: transportation of the injured, automobile accidents, conditions resulting from nuclear explosion, chemical warfare, natural catastrophes, and psychological first aid. The publication format…

  19. Low level waste shipment accident lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rast, D.M.; Rowe, J.G.; Reichel, C.W.

    1995-01-01

    On October 1, 1994 a shipment of low-level waste from the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio, was involved in an accident near Rolla, Missouri. The accident did not result in the release of any radioactive material. The accident did generate important lessons learned primarily in the areas of driver and emergency response communications. The shipment was comprised of an International Standards Organization (ISO) container on a standard flatbed trailer. The accident caused the low-level waste package to separate from the trailer and come to rest on its top in the median. The impact of the container with the pavement and median inflicted relatively minor damage to the container. The damage was not substantial enough to cause failure of container integrity. The success of the package is attributable to the container design and the packaging procedures used at the Fernald Environmental Management Project for low-level waste shipments. Although the container survived the initial wreck, is was nearly breached when the first responders attempted to open the ISO container. Even though the container was clearly marked and the shipment documentation was technically correct, this information did not identify that the ISO container was the primary containment for the waste. The lessons learned from this accident have DOE complex wide applicability. This paper is intended to describe the accident, subsequent emergency response operations, and the lessons learned from this incident

  20. ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.; Schulz, R.

    2002-01-01

    The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enable much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)

  1. Proceedings of the workshop on operator training for severe accident management and instrumentation capabilities during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This Workshop was organised in collaboration with Electricite de France (Service Etudes et Projets Thermiques et Nucleaires). There were 34 participants, representing thirteen OECD Member countries, the Russian Federation and the OECD/NEA. Almost half the participants represented utilities. The second largest group was regulatory authorities and their technical support organisations. Basically, the Workshop was a follow-up to the 1997 Second Specialist Meeting on Operator Aids for Severe Accident Management (SAMOA-2) [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(97)10 and 27] and to the 1992 Specialist Meeting on Instrumentation to Manage Severe Accidents [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(92)11 and (93)3]. It was aimed at sharing and comparing progress made and experience gained from these two meetings, emphasizing practical lessons learnt during training or incidents as well as feedback from instrumentation capability assessment. The objectives of the Workshop were therefore: - to exchange information on recent and current activities in the area of operator training for SAM, and lessons learnt during the management of real incidents ('operator' is defined hear as all personnel involved in SAM); - to compare capabilities and use of instrumentation available during severe accidents; - to monitor progress made; - to identify and discuss differences between approaches relevant to reactor safety; - and to make recommendations to the Working Group on the Analysis and Management of Accidents and the CSNI (GAMA). The meeting confirmed that only limited information is needed for making required decisions for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed

  2. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  3. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors......Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day...

  4. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang Il

    2011-01-01

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  5. NIF: Impacts of chemical accidents and comparison of chemical/radiological accident approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Rhodes, M.

    1996-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) proposes to construct and operate the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The goals of the NIF are to (1) achieve fusion ignition in the laboratory for the first time by using inertial confinement fusion (ICF) technology based on an advanced-design neodymium glass solid-state laser, and (2) conduct high-energy-density experiments in support of national security and civilian applications. The primary focus of this paper is worker-public health and safety issues associated with postulated chemical accidents during the operation of NIF. The key findings from the accident analysis will be presented. Although NIF chemical accidents will be emphasized, the important differences between chemical and radiological accident analysis approaches and the metrics for reporting results will be highlighted. These differences are common EIS facility and transportation accident assessments

  6. Applicability of simplified methods to evaluate consequences of criticality accident using past accident data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Ken

    2003-01-01

    Applicability of four simplified methods to evaluate the consequences of criticality accident was investigated. Fissions in the initial burst and total fissions were evaluated using the simplified methods and those results were compared with the past accident data. The simplified methods give the number of fissions in the initial burst as a function of solution volume; however the accident data did not show such tendency. This would be caused by the lack of accident data for the initial burst with high accuracy. For total fissions, simplified almost reproduced the upper envelope of the accidents. However several accidents, which were beyond the applicable conditions, resulted in the larger total fissions than the evaluations. In particular, the Tokai-mura accident in 1999 gave in the largest total specific fissions, because the activation of cooling system brought the relatively high power for a long time. (author)

  7. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  8. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  9. Radiological accidents balance in medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs

  10. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached by focusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kind of substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time. The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “ever-living present.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductory matter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is a treatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations in the n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have done away with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives as eternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of the nature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notion of holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory. I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence of actual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in his reflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentially more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in the last section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin, as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’s inspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretation leads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of its reconciliation

  11. Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

    2018-03-01

    With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

  12. [Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing, 1995-2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y; Wang, J; He, S F; Chen, J; Lu, H Y

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To analyze the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing from 1995 to 2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data of 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related with survival time. Results: Among 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases, 303 (2.4%) died of AIDS related diseases; 9 346 (72.6%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 226.5 months (95 %CI : 223.0-230.1), and the survival rates of 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 98.2%, 96.4%, 93.2%, and 91.9% respectively. Multivariate Cox proportion hazard regression model showed that AIDS phase ( HR =1.439, 95 %CI : 1.041-1.989), heterosexual transmission ( HR =1.646, 95 %CI : 1.184-2.289), being married ( HR =2.186, 95 %CI : 1.510-3.164); older age (≥60 years) at diagnosis ( HR =6.608, 95 %CI : 3.546-12.316); lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at diagnosis (<350 cells/μl) ( HR =8.711, 95 %CI : 5.757-13.181); receiving no antiretroviral therapy (ART) ( HR =18.223, 95 %CI : 13.317-24.937) were the high risk factors influencing the survival of AIDS patients compared with HIV phase, homosexual transmission, being unmarried, younger age (≤30 years), higher CD(4)(+)T cell count (≥350 cell/μl) and receiving ART. Conclusion: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was 226.5 months after diagnoses. Receiving ART, higher CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, HIV phase, younger age, being unmarried and the homosexual transmission were related to the longer survival time of HIV/AIDS cases. Receiving no ART, the lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, AIDS phase, older age, being married and heterosexual transmission indicated higher risk of death due to AIDS.

  13. Accidents in family forestry's firewood production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindroos, Ola; Aspman, Emma Wilhelmson; Lidestav, Gun; Neely, Gregory

    2008-05-01

    Firewood is commonly used around the world, but little is known about the work involved in its production and associated accidents. The objectives were to identify relationships between accidents and time exposure, workers' age and sex, equipment used and work activities in family forestry's firewood production. Data from a postal survey in Northern Sweden were compared to a database of injuries in the same region. Most accidents occurred to 50-69 year old men, who also worked most hours. No significant differences in sex and age were found between expected and recorded accident frequencies when calculated from total work hours; however, when calculated using numbers of active persons significant differences were found for both age and sex. Frequency of accidents per unit worked time was higher for machine involving activities than for other activities. Accidents that occurred when using wedge splitter machines were responsible for most of this overrepresentation. Fingers were the most commonly injured body parts. Mean accident rate for the equipment used was 87 accidents per million work hours, and the rate was highest for wedge splitters (122 accidents per million work hours). Exposure to elevated risks due to violation of safety procedures is discussed, as well as possible preventative measures.

  14. Partial pine sterility in 1986 and 1987 within the zone of Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khromova, L.V.; Romanovskij, M.G.; Dukharev, V.A.

    1990-01-01

    Reproductive potency of Pinus silvestris was studied in 1986 and 1987 within the zone of Chernobyl accident by the estimates of the survival rate of seed-buds during the gametophyte and embryonal development. At the radiation level of 4 Gy a partial female pine sterility was manifested by the decreased gametophyte survival rate of seedbuds, pollinated in 1986, and by the diminished embryonal survival rate of seed-buds pollinated in 1985

  15. Regulation Plans on Severe Accidents developed by KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyun Tae; Chung, Ku Young; Na, Han Bee

    2016-01-01

    Some nuclear power plants in Fukushima Daiichi site had lost their emergency reactor cooling function for long-time so the fuels inside the reactors were molten, and the integrity of containment was damaged. Therefore, large amount of radioactive material was released to environment. Because the social and economic effects of severe accidents are enormous, Korean Government already issued 'Severe Accident Policy' in 2001 which requires nuclear power plant operators to set up 'Quantitative Safety Goal', to do 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis', to install 'Severe Accident Countermeasures' and to make 'Severe Accident Management Plan'. After the Fukushima disaster, a Special Safety Inspection was performed for all operating nuclear power plants of Korea. The inspection team from industry, academia, and research institutes assessed Korean NPPs capabilities to cope with or respond to severe accidents and emergency situation caused by natural disasters such as a large earthquake or tsunami. As a result of the special inspection, about 50 action items were identified to increase the capability to cope with natural disaster and severe accidents. Nuclear Safety Act has been amended to require NPP operators to submit Accident Management Plant as part of operating license application. The KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT had first investigated oversea severe accident regulation trend before and after the Fukushima accident. Then, the TFT has developed regulation draft for severe accidents such as Severe accident Management Plans, the required design features for new NPPs to prevent severe accident against multiple failures and beyond-design external events, countermeasures to mitigate severe accident and to keep the integrity of containment, and assessment methodology on safety assessment plan and probabilistic safety assessment

  16. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  17. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisler, R.; Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John

    2003-01-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

  18. Detection device for off-gas system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubota, Ryuji; Tsuruoka, Ryozo; Yamanari, Shozo.

    1984-01-01

    Purpose: To rapidly isolate the off-gas system by detecting the off-gas system failure accident in a short time. Constitution: Radiation monitors are disposed to ducts connecting an exhaust gas area and an air conditioning system as a portion of a turbine building. The ducts are disposed independently such that they ventilate only the atmosphere in the exhaust gas area and do not mix the atmosphere in the turbine building. Since radioactivity issued upon off-gas accidents to the exhaust gas area is sucked to the duct, it can be detected by radiation detection monitors in a short time after the accident. Further, since the operator judges it as the off-gas system accident, the off-gas system can be isolated in a short time after the accident. (Moriyama, K.)

  19. Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

    2016-08-01

    To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Aircraft crash survivability from viscous injury in vertical impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Barth, Thomas H.

    2009-01-01

    This research investigated viscous injury from vertical impact loading to determine if it is critical to survivability of aircraft accidents. A unique database was built from autopsy reports and accident investigations combining injury data with the vehicle impact data. Computer models were created and used to assess injury potential. Common design limits and actual crash data from full scale research experiments were used as inputs. The results were analyzed according to publi...

  1. Determinants of injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Tsz Leung; Jin, Di; Talley, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Clinical findings and survival time in dogs with advanced heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumier, Amelie; Rush, John E; Yang, Vicky K; Freeman, Lisa M

    2018-04-10

    Dogs with advanced heart failure are a clinical challenge for veterinarians but there are no studies reporting clinical features and outcome of this population. To describe clinical findings and outcome of dogs with advanced heart failure caused by degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Fifty-four dogs with advanced heart failure because of DMVD. For study purposes, advanced heart failure was defined as recurrence of congestive heart failure signs despite receiving the initially prescribed dose of pimobendan, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), and furosemide >4 mg/kg/day. Data were collected for the time of diagnosis of Stage C heart failure and time of diagnosis of advanced heart failure. Date of death was recorded. At the diagnosis of advanced heart failure, doses of pimobendan (n = 30), furosemide (n = 28), ACEI (n = 13), and spironolactone (n = 4) were increased, with ≥1 new medications added in most dogs. After initial diagnosis of advanced heart failure, 38 (70%) dogs had additional medications adjustments (median = 2 [range, 0-27]), with the final total medication number ranging from 2-10 (median = 5). Median survival time after diagnosis of advanced heart failure was 281 days (range, 3-885 days). Dogs receiving a furosemide dose >6.70 mg/kg/day had significantly longer median survival times (402 days [range, 3-885 days] versus 129 days [range 9-853 days]; P = .017). Dogs with advanced heart failure can have relatively long survival times. Higher furosemide dose and non-hospitalization were associated with longer survival. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  3. Analysis of fatal accidents with tractors in the Centre of Portugal: Ten years analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Soraia M; Cordeiro, Cristina; Teixeira, Helena M

    2018-06-01

    Tractors have been described as one of the deadliest farming implements concerning agricultural activity. In Portugal, the scientific investigations about this problem are practically non-existent, with only statistical studies performed by entities related to road traffic safety, not in accordance to the study now performed, pinpointing the possibility of an underreporting of these accidents. This work aims to characterize the fatal tractor accidents in Portugal, autopsied at the Forensic Pathology Department of the Centre Branch of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences of Portugal, analysing several variables: gender, age, occupation, survival time, the victim position in the tractor, cause of death, toxicological and histological exams, year/month/day of the week, type of agricultural machine, existence of rollover protective structures (ROPS), type of accident, ground conditions, circumstantial information and geographic distribution of the accidents. All the autopsies between 2005 and 2014 were analysed. The victim profile corresponded to a man (89.5%), between 61 and 70 years old (33.3%), retired (43.9%), being the tractor driver (45.6%). In most of the cases, death occurred in less than 24h after the accident. These fatalities arose mainly in May and October. Rollover in sloping land was the most common type of accident, and cranioencephalic, thoracic and abdominal traumatic injuries were the main cause of death. In 16.2% of the cases, blood alcohol concentration was above the lower limit established in our road traffic law (accidents, and the corresponding circumstances that contributed to the death. Many barriers remain about this matter, but the Portuguese government begin to design several laws to prevent this type of accidents. Future investigations should be performed to understand the real dimension of tractor accidents in Portugal, and to comprehend the efficiency of laws implemented by the government. Copyright © 2018

  4. Regulation Plans on Severe Accidents developed by KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyun Tae; Chung, Ku Young; Na, Han Bee [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Some nuclear power plants in Fukushima Daiichi site had lost their emergency reactor cooling function for long-time so the fuels inside the reactors were molten, and the integrity of containment was damaged. Therefore, large amount of radioactive material was released to environment. Because the social and economic effects of severe accidents are enormous, Korean Government already issued 'Severe Accident Policy' in 2001 which requires nuclear power plant operators to set up 'Quantitative Safety Goal', to do 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis', to install 'Severe Accident Countermeasures' and to make 'Severe Accident Management Plan'. After the Fukushima disaster, a Special Safety Inspection was performed for all operating nuclear power plants of Korea. The inspection team from industry, academia, and research institutes assessed Korean NPPs capabilities to cope with or respond to severe accidents and emergency situation caused by natural disasters such as a large earthquake or tsunami. As a result of the special inspection, about 50 action items were identified to increase the capability to cope with natural disaster and severe accidents. Nuclear Safety Act has been amended to require NPP operators to submit Accident Management Plant as part of operating license application. The KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT had first investigated oversea severe accident regulation trend before and after the Fukushima accident. Then, the TFT has developed regulation draft for severe accidents such as Severe accident Management Plans, the required design features for new NPPs to prevent severe accident against multiple failures and beyond-design external events, countermeasures to mitigate severe accident and to keep the integrity of containment, and assessment methodology on safety assessment plan and probabilistic safety assessment.

  5. Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

    2018-01-25

    We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

  6. Cernavoda CANDU severe accident evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, G.; Marin, A.

    1997-01-01

    The papers present the activities dedicated to Romania Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant first CANDU Unit severe accident evaluation. This activity is part of more general PSA assessment activities. CANDU specific safety features are calandria moderator and calandria vault water capabilities to remove the residual heat in the case of severe accidents, when the conventional heat sinks are no more available. Severe accidents evaluation, that is a deterministic thermal hydraulic analysis, assesses the accidents progression and gives the milestones when important events take place. This kind of assessment is important to evaluate to recovery time for the reactor operators that can lead to the accident mitigation. The Cernavoda CANDU unit is modeled for the of all heat sinks accident and results compared with the AECL CANDU 600 assessment. (orig.)

  7. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  8. Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

    OpenAIRE

    Kaishev, V. K.; Haberman, S.; Dimitrova, D. S.

    2005-01-01

    The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian cop...

  9. Accident management for severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.; Pratt, W.T.; Lehner, J.; Leonard, M.; Disalvo, R.; Sheron, B.

    1988-01-01

    The management of severe accidents in light water reactors is receiving much attention in several countries. The reduction of risk by measures and/or actions that would affect the behavior of a severe accident is discussed. The research program that is being conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission focuses on both in-vessel accident management and containment and release accident management. The key issues and approaches taken in this program are summarized. 6 refs

  10. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  11. Real time analysis for atmospheric dispersions for Fukushima nuclear accident: Mobile phone based cloud computing assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Tae Ho

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Possible nuclear accident is simulated for the atmospheric contaminations. • The simulations results give the relative importance of the fallouts. • The cloud computing of IT is performed successfully. • One can prepare for the possible damages of such a NPP accident. • Some other variables can be considered in the modeling. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated by the system dynamics (SD) method. The non-linear complex algorithm could give the information about the hazardous material behavior in the case of nuclear accident. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The event sequence shows the scenario from earthquake to dispersion of the radionuclides. Then, the dispersion reaches two cities in Korea. The importance of the radioactive dispersion is related to the fast and reliable data processing, which could be accomplished by cloud computing concept. The values of multiplications for the wind, plume concentrations, and cloud computing factor are obtained. The highest value is 94.13 in the 206th day for Seoul. In Pusan, the highest value is 15.48 in the 219th day. The source is obtained as dispersion of radionuclide multiplied by 100. The real time safety assessment is accomplished by mobile phone

  12. Cerebrovascular accidents complicating transcatheter aortic valve implantation: frequency, timing and impact on outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stortecky, Stefan; Windecker, Stephan; Pilgrim, Thomas; Heg, Dik; Buellesfeld, Lutz; Khattab, Ahmed A; Huber, Christoph; Gloekler, Steffen; Nietlispach, Fabian; Mattle, Heinrich; Jüni, Peter; Wenaweser, Peter

    2012-05-15

    Cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) are considered among the most serious adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The objective of the present study was to evaluate the frequency and timing of CVA after TAVI and to investigate the impact on clinical outcomes within 30 days of the procedure. Between August 2007 and October 2011, 389 high-risk elderly patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis underwent TAVI via transfemoral, transapical or subclavian access. A total of 14 patients (3.6%) experienced at least one CVA within 30 days of follow-up and most events (74%) occurred within the first day of the procedure. Patients with CVA had an increased risk of all-cause (42.3% vs. 5.1%, ORadjusted 11.7, 95% CI 3.4-40.3, pCerebrovascular accidents among patients undergoing TAVI occur predominantly during the periprocedural period, are associated with multiple implantation attempts of the bioprosthesis and significantly impair prognosis.

  13. Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-12-20

    Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median

  14. Fatal accidents due to train surfing in Berlin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, H; Wirth, I; Geserick, G

    1998-06-08

    This study was undertaken for the purpose of analysing under the aspect of legal medicine, fatal accidents due to train surfing in the local transport system of Berlin (S-Bahn and underground). The period of investigation was from 1989 through 1995, with 41 train surfing accidents, among them 18 with fatal outcome. Evaluation included those 14 deaths which were forensically autopsied. It was based on autopsy records of Berlin-based university institutes (Humboldt University and Free University) as well as the Brandenburg State Institute of Legal Medicine. Also used were data obtained from the Berlin Transport Police Record. The casualties were aged between 13 and 25 years, most of them between 16 and 20. The male-female gender ratio was 13:1. Accidents occurred above all in the warmer season of the year, most of them between 20:00 h and midnight. More than 50% of all cases were affected by alcohol, but centrally acting medicaments or other addictive drugs were not noticed at all. Most of the fatal accidents occurred to users of the Berlin S-Bahn network. Older train models were the preferred surfing objects due to their structural peculiarities. Collision with close-to-track obstacles and slipping from the train proved to be the major sources of danger. An analysis of injuries revealed polytraumatisation but for one exception, with craniocerebral injuries being the most common and severest events. The longest survival time amounted to 24 h. As the psychosocial causes of high-risk behaviour of adolescents will hardly be controllable, withdrawal of technical, that is structural design possibilities appears to be the most important approach to prevention of accidents in the future. This demand is met by the new series of the Berlin S-Bahn. The model of the old series, suitable for surfing, still accounts for about 10% of the rolling stock and is to be decommissioned in 1998.

  15. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  16. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  17. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Lesão encefálica hipóxica em vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito: prevalência, distribuição e associação com tempo de sobrevida e outras lesões cranioencefálicas e extracranianas Hypoxic brain damage in victims of fatal road traffic accident: prevalence, distribution and association with survival time and other head and extracranial injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastião Silva Gusmão

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e a distribuição da lesão encefálica hipóxica e sua associação com tempo de sobrevida e outras lesões cranioencefálicas e extracranianas. MÉTODO: Realizou-se o estudo anátomo-patológico macro e microscópico de 120 vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito, independente do tempo de sobrevida, necropsiadas no Instituto Médico Legal de Minas Gerais, em Belo Horizonte, no período entre 1989 e 1993. O estudo foi prospectivo e os indivíduos foram selecionados aleatoriamente. RESULTADOS: Das 120 vítimas, 51 eram motoristas ou passageiros de veículos motorizados e 69 eram pedestres. Oitenta e três pacientes (69,2% faleceram no local do acidente ou com menos de 24 horas de sobrevida e 37 (30,8% sobreviveram um ou mais dias. Evidência histológica de lesão encefálica hipóxica foi detectada em 23 (19,2% dos 120 encéfalos. A prevalência foi de 4,8% entre os pacientes que sobreviveram menos de 24 horas e 51,4% para aqueles com um ou mais dias de sobrevida. A lesão encefálica hipóxica foi encontrada principalmente no hipocampo e subiculum (65,2%, tálamo (34,8%, neocórtex cerebral (26,1% e núcleos da base (21,7%. Não se observou associação significativa entre lesão encefálica hipóxica e hipertensão intracraniana, trauma tóraco-abdominal e pneumonia e/ou meningite nos pacientes com sobrevida igual ou superior a um dia. CONCLUSÃO: A lesão encefálica hipóxica ocorre em alta frequência em vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito com um ou mais dias de sobrevida, não estando significativamente associada a hipertensão intracraniana, trauma tóraco-abdominal e pneumonia e/ou meningite.OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and distribution of hypoxic brain damage and its association with survival time and other head and extracranial injuries. METHOD: A macro and microscopical study of brain lesions in 120 victims of fatal road traffic accident, independent of the survival time, was made

  19. The radiological accident in Tammiku

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    On 21 October 1994, three brothers entered a waste repository at Tammiku, Estonia, without authorization and removed a metal container enclosing a caesium-137 source. During the removal the source was dislodged and fell to the ground. One of the men picked up the source, placed it in his pocket and took it to his home in the nearby village of Kiisa. Very soon after entry into the repository he began to feel ill, and few hours later he began to vomit. The man was subsequently admitted to hospital with severe injuries to his leg and hip and died on 2 November 1994. The injury and subsequent death were not attributed to radiation exposure, and the source remained in the man's house with his wife and stepson and the boy's great-grandmother. The boy was hospitalized on 17 November with severe burns on his hands, and these were identified by a doctor as radiation induced. The authorities were alerted, and the Estonian Rescue Board recovered the source from the house. The source was returned to the Tammiku repository on 18 November. The occupants of the house and one of the two surviving brothers were hospitalized and diagnosed as suffering from radiation induced injuries of varying severity. All were subsequently released from hospital, but, at the time of writing this report the treatment to the most exposed individuals is still continuing. The objective of this report is to provide information to national authorities and regulatory organizations so that they can take steps to minimize the risks of similar accidents in the future, and also put in place arrangements to deal with such accidents if they do occur. It is hoped that this report will be of general interest in the radiation protection community, although it si aimed primarily at managers of waste disposal facilities, and legislators and regulators, both in developing countries and in all countries reviewing their radiation protection legislation. This report describes the events leading up to the accident, the

  20. Computation of reactor control rod drop time under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dou Yikang; Yao Weida; Yang Renan; Jiang Nanyan

    1998-01-01

    The computational method of reactor control rod drop time under accident conditions lies mainly in establishing forced vibration equations for the components under action of outside forces on control rod driven line and motion equation for the control rod moving in vertical direction. The above two kinds of equations are connected by considering the impact effects between control rod and its outside components. Finite difference method is adopted to make discretization of the vibration equations and Wilson-θ method is applied to deal with the time history problem. The non-linearity caused by impact is iteratively treated with modified Newton method. Some experimental results are used to validate the validity and reliability of the computational method. Theoretical and experimental testing problems show that the computer program based on the computational method is applicable and reliable. The program can act as an effective tool of design by analysis and safety analysis for the relevant components

  1. 30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zablotska, Lydia B

    2016-06-01

    It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

  2. Fukushima-Daiichi after the severe accident (estimation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otcenasek, Petr

    2011-01-01

    All facts about the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP and about the accident known at the time of publication are summarized and expected remedial actions and consequences of the accidents are deduced. The paper is structured as follows: (1) Accident initiation is known; (2) Logically inferred results; (3) Framework identification; (4) Survey; and (5) Economic and strategic impacts of the accident. Worldwide solidarity is mentioned in conclusion. (P.A.)

  3. Large Break LOCA Accident Management Strategies for Accidents With Large Containment Leaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sdouz, Gert

    2006-01-01

    The goal of this work is the investigation of the influence of different accident management strategies on the thermal-hydraulics in the containment during a Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident with a large containment leak from the beginning of the accident. The increasing relevance of terrorism suggests a closer look at this kind of severe accidents. Normally the course of severe accidents and their associated phenomena are investigated with the assumption of an intact containment from the beginning of the accident. This intact containment has the ability to retain a large part of the radioactive inventory. In these cases there is only a release via a very small leakage due to the un-tightness of the containment up to cavity bottom melt through. This paper represents the last part of a comprehensive study on the influence of accident management strategies on the source term of VVER-1000 reactors. Basically two different accident sequences were investigated: the 'Station Blackout'- sequence and the 'Large Break LOCA'. In a first step the source term calculations were performed assuming an intact containment from the beginning of the accident and no accident management action. In a further step the influence of different accident management strategies was studied. The last part of the project was a repetition of the calculations with the assumption of a damaged containment from the beginning of the accident. This paper concentrates on the last step in the case of a Large Break LOCA. To be able to compare the results with calculations performed years ago the calculations were performed using the Source Term Code Package (STCP), hydrogen explosions are not considered. In this study four different scenarios have been investigated. The main parameter was the switch on time of the spray systems. One of the results is the influence of different accident management strategies on the source term. In the comparison with the sequence with intact containment it was

  4. 29 CFR 1960.70 - Reporting of serious accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reporting of serious accidents. 1960.70 Section 1960.70... accidents. Agencies must provide the Office of Federal Agency Programs with a summary report of each fatal and catastrophic accident investigation. The summaries shall address the date/time of accident, agency...

  5. Rupture of the aorta following road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom 1992-1999. The results of the co-operative crash injury study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richens, D; Kotidis, K; Neale, M; Oakley, C; Fails, A

    2003-02-01

    The true incidence and survivability of blunt traumatic aortic rupture following road traffic accidents in the UK is unclear. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of blunt traumatic aortic rupture in the UK after road traffic accidents and the conditions under which it occurs. Data for the study was obtained from the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database. Road traffic accidents that happened between 1992 and 1999 and included in the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database were retrospectively investigated. A total of 8285 vehicles carrying 14,435 occupants were involved in 7067 accidents. There were 132 cases of blunt traumatic aortic rupture, of which the scene survival was 9% and the overall mortality was 98%. Twenty-one percent of all fatalities had blunt traumatic aortic rupture (130/613). Twenty-nine percent were due to frontal impacts and 44% were due to side impacts. Twelve percent of the blunt traumatic aortic rupture cases in frontal vehicle impacts were wearing seat belts and had airbag protection and 19% had no restraint mechanism. The Equivalent Test Speed of the accident vehicles, (where equivalent test speed provides an estimate of the vehicle impact severity and not an estimate of the vehicle speed at the time of the accident), ranged from 30 to 110 km/h in frontal impacts and from 15 to 82 km/h in side impacts. Blunt traumatic aortic rupture carries a high mortality and occurred in 21% of car occupant deaths in this sample of road traffic accidents. Impact scenarios varied but were most common from the side. The use of an airbag or seat belt does not eliminate risk. The injury can occur at low severity impacts particularly in side impact. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

  6. Intervention of the army health service in the case of radiological accident in peace time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curet, P.M.; Croq, M.

    2001-01-01

    The Army Health Service has conceived an organisation and has at its disposal the means necessary to answer the consequences of an accident having a radiological type in peace time in the military field. Its intervention area can be extended to the civil medium at the public authorities demand to give assistance. (N.C.)

  7. [Retrospective analysis of 44 childhood drowning accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brüning, Caroline; Siekmeyer, Werner; Siekmeyer, Manuela; Merkenschlager, Andreas; Kiess, Wieland

    2010-07-01

    Worldwide, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional death and the leading cause of cardiovascular failure for children [1-3]. The number of near-drownings, where the incident is survived for at least 24 hours, is assumed to be four times as high [5]. In the years 1994 until 2008 there were 44 cases of drowning treated at the children's department of the University of Leipzig. This number shows that even in a medical centre drowning incidents are only occasional incidents. Therefore it is important to know the sequelae and handlings to be able to react in case of an emergency. A total of 44 children suffering a drowning accident within the last 48 hours who were treated during the period of 01.01.1994 through 30.06.2008 at the Children's Centre at the University of Leipzig. A retrospective analysis using a structured questionnaire was done. Social demographic data, accident progress, clinical results and progress as well as outcome of the cases were investigated. During the analysed period in the median three children were treated each year after drowning incidents. Clustering in the summer and winter months and on the weekends was recognizable. The median age was 3.33 years and the group of high risk were children aged 1-3 years, especially boys. Sixty percent of the children came from stable social backgrounds. Half of the children suffered from drowning in created swimming pools or ponds, the rest in natural waters, public pools and sources of water in the household. The median submersion lasted 2 minutes. Correlation of submersions below 1 minute with a good, and submersions above 10 minutes with a negative outcome was shown. A Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 3 points (n = 15) and pupils without light reaction (n = 14) were associated with a lethal outcome or residual neurological deficits. Looking at the laboratory values, correlation between severe acidotic pH-values with a very low base excess, high blood sugar as well as high lactate values and a

  8. Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

    OpenAIRE

    Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

  9. Unrecorded Accidents Detection on Highways Based on Temporal Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi An

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automatic traffic accident detection, especially not recorded by traffic police, is crucial to accident black spots identification and traffic safety. A new method of detecting traffic accidents is proposed based on temporal data mining, which can identify the unknown and unrecorded accidents by traffic police. Time series model was constructed using ternary numbers to reflect the state of traffic flow based on cell transmission model. In order to deal with the aftereffects of linear drift between time series and to reduce the computational cost, discrete Fourier transform was implemented to turn time series from time domain to frequency domain. The pattern of the time series when an accident happened could be recognized using the historical crash data. Then taking Euclidean distance as the similarity evaluation function, similarity data mining of the transformed time series was carried out. If the result was less than the given threshold, the two time series were similar and an accident happened probably. A numerical example was carried out and the results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. Association of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival according to ambulance response-times after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus...... 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander...... CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish...

  11. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  12. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  13. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  14. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastauskas, A.; Nedvecktaite, T.; Filistovic, V.

    1997-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident of 26 April, 1986, population dose assessment favours the view that the radiation risk of population effected by the early fallout would be different from that in regions contaminated later. Taking into account the short half-time of the most important radioactive iodine isotopes, thyroid disorders would be expected mainly to follow the early fallout distribution. At the time of accident at Unite 4 of the Chernobyl NPP, surface winds were from the Southeast. The initial explosions and heat carried volatile radioactive materials to the 1,5 km height, from where they were transported over the Western part of Belarus, Southern and Western part of Lithuania toward Scandinavian countries. Thus the volatile radioiodine and some other radionuclides were detected in Lithuania on the very first days after the accident. The main task of the work - to conduct short Half-time radioiodine and long half-time radiocesium dose assessment of Lithuanian inhabitants a result of the early Chernobyl accident fallout

  15. Investigation of Qom Rural Area Water Network Accident in 2010 and Minimization Approaches of Accident Frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Jafari Mansoorian

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study : Accidents in water networks can lead to increase the uncounted water, costs of repair, maintenance, restoration and enter water contaminants to water network. The aim of this study is to survey the accidents of Qom rural water network and choose the right approaches to reduce the number of accidents. Materials & Methods: In this cross-sectional study, four sector of Qom province (Markazi, Dastjerd, Kahak and Qahan, were assessed over a period of 8 months (July – January 2010. This study was conducted through questionnaire of Ministry of Energy. Results: The total number of accidents was 763. The highest number of accidents in the four sectors was related to Markazi sector with 228 accidents. According to the time of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to September (19.7% and November (6.8%, respectively. According to the location of the accident on network, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to distribution network (64% and connections (17.5% and transmission pipe (18.34%, respectively. According to the type of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to breaking (47.8% and gasket failure (1.2%, respectively. Considering with the pipes’ material, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to polyethylene pipes (93% and steel and cast iron pipes (0.5%, 0.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Due to the high break rate of Polyethylene pipes, it is recommended to be placed in priority of leak detection and rehabilitation.   .

  16. Survival and prognostic factors at time of diagnosis in high-grade appendicular osteosarcoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colding-Rasmussen, Thomas; Thorn, Andrea Pohly; Horstmann, Peter

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Survival of patients with high-grade osteosarcoma (HOS), the most common primary bone cancer, has not improved significantly the last 30 years and the disease remains a major challenge. The purpose of this study is to evaluate survival in relation to prognostic factors at time of diag...

  17. Preliminary safety analysis of the PWR with accident-tolerant fuels during severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xiaoli; Li, Wei; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Yapei; Tian, Wenxi; Su, Guanghui; Qiu, Suizheng; Liu, Tong; Deng, Yongjun; Huang, Heng

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of severe accident scenarios for a PWR fueled with ATF system is performed. • A large-break LOCA without ECCS is analyzed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • Extended SBO cases are discussed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • The accident-tolerance of ATF system for application in PWR is illustrated. - Abstract: Experience gained in decades of nuclear safety research and previous nuclear accidents direct to the investigation of passive safety system design and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) system which is now becoming a hot research point in the nuclear energy field. The ATF system is aimed at upgrading safety characteristics of the nuclear fuel and cladding in a reactor core where active cooling has been lost, and is preferable or comparable to the current UO 2 –Zr system when the reactor is in normal operation. By virtue of advanced materials with improved properties, the ATF system will obviously slow down the progression of accidents, allowing wider margin of time for the mitigation measures to work. Specifically, the simulation and analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) without ECCS and extended station blackout (SBO) severe accident are performed for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) loaded with ATF candidates, to reflect the accident-tolerance of ATF

  18. Postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, W.

    1980-01-01

    This lecture on 'Postulated Accidents' is the first of a series of lectures on the dynamic and transient behaviour of nuclear power plants, especially pressurized water reactors. The main points covered will be: Reactivity Accidents, Transients (Intact Loop) and Loss of Cooland Accidents (LOCA) including small leak. This lecture will discuss the accident analysis in general, the definition of the various operational phases, the accident classification, and, as an example, an accident sequence analysis on the basis of 'Postulated Accidents'. (orig./RW)

  19. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  20. Accidents (FARS) (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Accident - (1975-current): This data file (NTAD) contains information about crash characteristics and environmental conditions at the time of the crash. There is one...

  1. Effect of fibrinolysis inhibitors on survival time of irradiated rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smok, W.

    1988-01-01

    The possibilities of alleviation of the gastrointestinal syndrome of acute radiation sickness by modification of haemorrhagic diathesis using EACA and traskolan were studied. A significant prolongation of the mean survival time was obtained in the irradiated rats treated with EACA. 7 tabs., 10 refs. (author)

  2. Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zhao, Wei; Bettati, Riccardo; Vaidya, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    This document is the final report for Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems, a Texas A AND M project funded through the DARPA Fault Tolerant Networks Program...

  3. Psychological and social impacts of post-accident situations: lessons from the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the main features, from the psychological and social points of view, of the post-accident situation in the contaminated areas around Chernobyl. This is based on a series of surveys performed in the concerned territories of the CIS republics. The high level of stress affecting a large segment of the population is related to the perception of the situation by those living in a durably contaminated environment but also to the side-effects of some of the countermeasures adopted to mitigate the radiological consequences or to compensate the affected population. The distinction between the accident and the post-accident phase is enlarged to take into account the various phases characterizing the dynamics of the social response. Although the size of the catastrophe as well as the economic and political conditions that were prevailing at the time and after the accident have resulted in a maximal intensity of the reactions of the population, many lessons can be drawn for the management of potential post-accident situations. (author)

  4. Accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J.; Monty, B.S.; Liparulo, N.J.; Desaedeleer, G.

    1989-01-01

    The foundation of the framework for a Severe Accident Management Program is the contained in the Probabilistic Safety Study (PSS) or the Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE) for a specific plant. The development of a Severe Accident Management Program at a plant is based on the use of the information, in conjunction with other applicable information. A Severe Accident Management Program must address both accident prevention and accident mitigation. The overall Severe Accident Management framework must address these two facets, as a living program in terms of gathering the evaluating information, the readiness to respond to an event. Significant international experience in the development of severe accident management programs exist which should provide some direction for the development of Severe Accident Management in the U.S. This paper reports that the two most important elements of a Severe Accident Management Program are the Emergency Consultation process and the standards for measuring the effectiveness of individual Severe Accident Management Programs at utilities

  5. Use of bayesian operations for diagnosing accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K.M.; Jae, M.; Suh, K.Y.

    2005-01-01

    In complex systems, it is necessary to model a logical representation of the overall system interaction with respect to the individual subsystems. Operators are allowed to follow EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) when reactor tripped because of accidents. But, it's very difficult to diagnose accidents and find out appropriate procedures to mitigate current accidents in a given short time. Even if they diagnose accidents, it also has possibility to misdiagnose. TMI accident is a good example of operators' errors. Methodology using Influence Diagrams has been developed and applied for representing the dependency behaviors and uncertain behaviors of complex systems. An example to diagnose the accidents such as SLOCA and SGTR with similar symptoms has been introduced. From the constructed model, operators could diagnose accidents at any states of accidents. This model can offer the information about accidents with given symptoms. This model might help operators to diagnose correctly and rapidly. It might be very useful to support operators to reduce human error. Also, from this study, it is applicable to diagnose other accidents with similar symptoms and to analyze causes of reactor trip. (authors)

  6. Learning from nuclear accident experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models, and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants, it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants. 10 references, 7 figures, 2 tables

  7. Pattern of accident distribution in the telecommunications industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, P R; Sheppard, N J

    1980-05-01

    Examination of the accident records from the telecommunication industry covering some 100 000 engineers over a 12-month period showed that 25% of accidents resulting in more than three days' sick leave gave rise to back injuries. Handling accidents and falls accounted for 65% of three-day-plus accidents; handling accidents alone gave rise to 65% of back injuries. The absolute numbers of accidents have been compared with the total population of engineers to estimate the effects of age or occupation on levels of hazard; certain occupations constituting 33% of the engineers' population suffered 70% of all three-day-plus accidents. Accidents occurred most frequently in the group aged from 31 to 48 years. Other significant factors affecting the occurrence of accidents were time of year and duty experience of the workers.

  8. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  9. The work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust.

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, R H; Cooper, S; Hayes, H R

    1988-01-01

    In 1983 an article was published in this Journal describing the work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Since that time many developments have taken place in the field of child accident prevention. There has been an increased recognition of the role of accidents and injuries in child health and the importance of accident prevention at an international, national, and local level. This has, in part, been a result of work undertaken by the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Much remains to be...

  10. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  11. Computer Based Road Accident Reconstruction Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Batista

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Since road accident analyses and reconstructions are increasinglybased on specific computer software for simulationof vehicle d1iving dynamics and collision dynamics, and forsimulation of a set of trial runs from which the model that bestdescribes a real event can be selected, the paper presents anoverview of some computer software and methods available toaccident reconstruction experts. Besides being time-saving,when properly used such computer software can provide moreauthentic and more trustworthy accident reconstruction, thereforepractical experiences while using computer software toolsfor road accident reconstruction obtained in the TransportSafety Laboratory at the Faculty for Maritime Studies andTransport of the University of Ljubljana are presented and discussed.This paper addresses also software technology for extractingmaximum information from the accident photo-documentationto support accident reconstruction based on the simulationsoftware, as well as the field work of reconstruction expertsor police on the road accident scene defined by this technology.

  12. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stehney, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226 Ra + 228 Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment

  13. Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Bradley G; Coburn, Brian J; Blower, Sally

    2013-01-01

    Treating HIV-infected individuals reduces their viral load, consequently increasing their survival time and decreasing their infectivity. It has been proposed that universal testing and treatment (i.e., universal "test & treat'') could lead to HIV elimination and would be extremely cost-effective. It is now being debated whether to use a universal "test & treat'' approach in the "real-world'' as a prevention strategy to control HIV epidemics. However current modeling predictions of the impact, and cost-effectiveness, of universal `"est & treat'' strategies are based on an unrealistically short survival time for treated individuals. Here we use mathematical modeling and a longer, more realistic, survival time. We model the potential impact of a universal "test & treat'' strategy in South Africa. Our results show that increasing the length of the survival time on treatment, although beneficial to individuals, reduces the probability of eliminating HIV and decreases the cost-effectiveness of using universal "test & treat'' strategies. Therefore our results show that individual-level benefits and public health benefits will conflict when using "test &treat'' strategies to reduce HIV transmission.

  14. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP`s cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs.

  15. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong.

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP's cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs

  16. Survival time and effect of selected predictor variables on survival in owned pet cats seropositive for feline immunodeficiency and leukemia virus attending a referral clinic in northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Eva; Perego, Roberta; Sgamma, Elena Assunta; Proverbio, Daniela

    2018-02-01

    Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are among the most important feline infectious diseases worldwide. This retrospective study investigated survival times and effects of selected predictor factors on survival time in a population of owned pet cats in Northern Italy testing positive for the presence of FIV antibodies and FeLV antigen. One hundred and three retrovirus-seropositive cats, 53 FIV-seropositive cats, 40 FeLV-seropositive cats, and 10 FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were included in the study. A population of 103 retrovirus-seronegative age and sex-matched cats was selected. Survival time was calculated and compared between retrovirus-seronegative, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to study the effect of selected predictor factors (male gender, peripheral blood cytopenia as reduced red blood cells - RBC- count, leukopenia, neutropenia and lymphopenia, hypercreatininemia and reduced albumin to globulin ratio) on survival time in retrovirus-seropositive populations. Median survival times for seronegative cats, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were 3960, 2040, 714 and 77days, respectively. Compared to retrovirus-seronegative cats median survival time was significantly lower (P<0.000) in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats. Median survival time in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats was also significant lower (P<0.000) when compared to FIV-seropositive cats. Hazard ratio of death in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats being respectively 3.4 and 7.4 times higher, in comparison to seronegative cats and 2.3 and 4.8 times higher in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats as compared to FIV-seropositive cats. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with reduced RBC counts at time of diagnosis of seropositivity had significantly shorter survival times when compared to FIV and Fe

  17. Time dependence of the 137Cs resuspension factor on the Romanian territory after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihaila, B.; Cuculeanu, V.

    1994-01-01

    On the basis of the radioactivity levels in aerosol and atmospheric deposition samples due to the Chernobyl accident, the resuspension factor of 137 Cs as a four-parameter function has been inferred. The standard procedure to derive the dependence of resuspension on time assumes that the initial deposit is instantaneous. A simple method assuming a constant deposition rate over a fixed period has been proposed. Also, based on existing experimental data, an attempt was made to consider a realistic time dependence of the deposition rate to cope with the particular case of the Chernobyl accident. The differences between the two models are outlined. The Chernobyl direct deposit has been assumed to be the deposit measured between 30 April and 30 June 1986. The calculated values of the resuspension factor are consistent with the IAEA's recommended model and depend on the rainfall that occurred in June 1986 and the site-specific disturbance conditions during the first 100 d following 1 July 1986 and only on artificial disturbance by humans and vehicles after that. 16 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  19. Correlation between the CT manifestations and post-operative survival time in patients with thymic epithelial tumor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Juan; Tan Ye; Wang Xiangyang; Du Jun; Pan Jishu; Wei Jiahu

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To describe the CT manifestations of thymic epithelial tumor and explore the correlation between CT findings and post-operative tumor-related survival time. Methods: Ninety-one patients who underwent CT scan before operation were reviewed retrospectively. All cases had operation and were classified according to the WHO classification. The size, contour, shape, density and enhancement of the tumors on CT were assessed. Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy, great vessel invasion, metastasis to the lung or plural, myasthenia gravis (MG) were also analyzed. The survival rate was obtained using, the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox model was applied to determine the factors affecting the tumor-related survivals. Chi square test was used to analyze the relationship between CT findings and WHO classification. Results: Two patients were excluded because of dying of myocardial infarction and colon cancer. The total 5-year survival rate was 84.3% (n=75). Eighty-nine patients had total 91 tumors. Tumors with diameter larger than 5 cm, lobular contour, heterogenous density, and presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis were adverse factors which could significantly affect the survival time. Five-year survival rates of these factors were 72.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, 73.8%, 30.0%, and 68.8%, respectively. Presence of MG was a favorable factor which also significantly affected the survival time (P 0.05). The result of the Cox multivariate analysis was consistent with that of the Log-rank test. For different WHO classification, there were significant different among the size or contour of the tumors, presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis (χ 2 value were 6.598, 5.737, 18.307, 8.465, and 15.608, respectively P<0.05). Conclusions: CT findings may be served as predictors of clinical prognosis of the thymic epithelial tumors. Adverse factors for survival time are the size of the tumors and presence of

  20. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers...... was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number...... of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved...

  1. Agricultural implications for Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2013-01-01

    The overview of our research projects for Fukushima is presented including how they were derived. Then, where the fallout was found, right after the accident, is briefly summarized for soil, plants, trees, etc. The time of the accident was late winter, there were hardly any plants growing except for the wheat in the farming field. Most of the fallout was found at the surface of soil, tree barks, etc., which were exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The fallout found was firmly adsorbed to anything and did not move for months from the site when they first touched. Therefore, the newly emerged tissue after the accident showed very low radioactivity. The fallout contamination was not uniform, therefore, when radiograph of contaminated soil or leaves were taken, fallout was shown as spots. Generally, plants could not absorb radiocesium adsorbed to soil. Some of the results we obtained will be presented. (author)

  2. Incidence of legal abortion in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odlind, V.; Ericson, A.

    1991-01-01

    The number of legal abortions in Sweden increased around the time of the Chernobyl accident, particularly in the summer and autumn of 1986. Although there was no recording of reasons for legal abortions, one might have suspected this increase to be a result of fear and anxiety after the accident. However, seen over a longer time perspective, the increase in the number of abortions started before and continued far beyond the time of the accident. There was also a simultaneous and pronounced increase in the number of births during the years subsequent to the accident. Therefore, it seems unlikely that fear of the consequences of radioactive fall-out after the Chernobyl accident resulted in any substantial increase of the number of legal abortions in Sweden

  3. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  4. On high-temperature reactor accident topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, J.; Kroeger, W.; Wolters, J.

    1981-01-01

    American and German risk studies for an HTGR and independent investigations of hypothetical accident sequences led to a fundamental understanding of the topology of HTGR accident sequences. The dominating importance of core heat-up accidents was confirmed and the initiating events were identified. Complications of core heat-up accidents by air or water ingress are of minor importance for the risk, whereas the long-term development of accidents during days and weeks plays an important role for the environmental impact. The risk caused by an HTGR at a German site cannot yet be determined exactly, because no modern German HTGR design has passed a licensing procedure. Cautious estimates show that risk will appear to be substantially smaller than the LWR risk. The main reasons are the considerably reduced release of fission procucts and the slow development of core heat-up accidents leaving much time for measures which reduce the risk. (orig.) [de

  5. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  6. Real-time management (RTM) by cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) for risk analysis of Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Hyo Sung [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; Woo, Tae Ho [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; The Cyber Univ. of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical and Control Engineering

    2017-03-15

    The earthquake and tsunami induced accident of nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima disaster is investigated by the real-time management (RTM) method. This non-linear logic of the safety management is applied to enhance the methodological confidence in the NPP reliability. The case study of the earthquake is modeled for the fast reaction characteristics of the RTM. The system dynamics (SD) modeling simulations and cloud computing are applied for the RTM method where the real time simulation has the fast and effective communication for the accident remediation and prevention. Current tablet computing system can improve the safety standard of the NPP. Finally, the procedure of the cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) modeling is constructed.

  7. Real-time management (RTM) by cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) for risk analysis of Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo Sung; Woo, Tae Ho; The Cyber Univ. of Korea, Seoul

    2017-01-01

    The earthquake and tsunami induced accident of nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima disaster is investigated by the real-time management (RTM) method. This non-linear logic of the safety management is applied to enhance the methodological confidence in the NPP reliability. The case study of the earthquake is modeled for the fast reaction characteristics of the RTM. The system dynamics (SD) modeling simulations and cloud computing are applied for the RTM method where the real time simulation has the fast and effective communication for the accident remediation and prevention. Current tablet computing system can improve the safety standard of the NPP. Finally, the procedure of the cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) modeling is constructed.

  8. Effect of liquid nitrogen storage time on the survival and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Investigations were undertaken on the effect of liquid nitrogen (LN) storage time on survival and regeneration of somatic embryos of cocoa (Theobroma cacao l.). Somatic embryos from different cocoa genotypes (AMAZ 3-2, AMAZ 10-1, AMAZ 12, SIAL 93, and IMC 14) at 15.45% moisture content were cryopreserved in LN ...

  9. Effects of the Chernobyl accident on public perceptions of nuclear plant accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindell, M.K.; Perry, R.W.

    1990-01-01

    Assessments of public perceptions of the characteristics of a nuclear power plant accident and affective responses to its likelihood were conducted 5 months before and 1 month after the Chernobyl accident. Analyses of data from 69 residents of southwestern Washington showed significant test-retest correlations for only 10 of 18 variables--accident likelihood, three measures of impact characteristics, three measures of affective reactions, and hazard knowledge by governmental sources. Of these variables, only two had significant changes in mean ratings; frequency of thought and frequency of discussion about a nearby nuclear power plant both increased. While there were significant changes only for two personal consequences (expectations of cancer and genetic effects), both of these decreased. The results of this study indicate that more attention should be given to assessing the stability of risk perceptions over time. Moreover, the data demonstrate that experience with a major accident can actually decrease rather than increase perceptions of threat

  10. Accident management insights after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degueldre, Didier; Viktorov, Alexandre; Tuomainen, Minna; Ducamp, Francois; Chevalier, Sophie; Guigueno, Yves; Tasset, Daniel; Heinrich, Marcus; Schneider, Matthias; Funahashi, Toshihiro; Hotta, Akitoshi; Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro; Chung, Dae-Wook; Kuriene, Laima; Kozlova, Nadezhda; Zivko, Tomi; Aleza, Santiago; Jones, John; McHale, Jack; Nieh, Ho; Pascal, Ghislain; ); Nakoski, John; Neretin, Victor; Nezuka, Takayoshi; )

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, that took place on 11 March 2011, initiated a significant number of activities at the national and international levels to reassess the safety of existing NPPs, evaluate the sufficiency of technical means and administrative measures available for emergency response, and develop recommendations for increasing the robustness of NPPs to withstand extreme external events and beyond design basis accidents. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is working closely with its member and partner countries to examine the causes of the accident and to identify lessons learnt with a view to the appropriate follow-up actions to be taken by the nuclear safety community. Accident management is a priority area of work for the NEA to address lessons being learnt from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP following the recommendations of Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA), Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI), and Committee on Radiation Protection and Public Health (CRPPH). Considering the importance of these issues, the CNRA authorised the formation of a task group on accident management (TGAM) in June 2012 to review the regulatory framework for accident management following the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. The task group was requested to assess the NEA member countries needs and challenges in light of the accident from a regulatory point of view. The general objectives of the TGAM review were to consider: - enhancements of on-site accident management procedures and guidelines based on lessons learnt from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident; - decision-making and guiding principles in emergency situations; - guidance for instrumentation, equipment and supplies for addressing long-term aspects of accident management; - guidance and implementation when taking extreme measures for accident management. The report is built on the existing bases for capabilities to respond to design basis

  11. NPP post-accident monitoring system based on unmanned aircraft vehicle:concept, design principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sachenko, A.A.; Kochan, V.V.; Kharchenko, V.S.; Yanovskij, M.Eh.; Yastrebenetskij, M.A.; Fesenko, G.V.

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents a concept of designing the post-accident system for monitoring the equipment and territory of nuclear power plant after a severe accident based on unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAVs). Wired power and communications networks are found out as the most vulnerable ones during the accident monitoring, and informativity, reliability and veracity are recognized as system basic parameters. It is proposed to equip measurement and control modules with backup wireless communication channels and deploy the repeaters network based on UAVs to ensure the informativity. Modules possess the backup power battery, and repeaters appear in the appropriate places after the accident to provide the survivability. Moreover, an optimization of UAVs' location is proposed according to the minimum energy consumption criterion. To ensure the veracity, it is expected to design the noise-immune protocol for message exchange and archiving and self-diagnostics of all system components

  12. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Dong Hyuk [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  13. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Lim, Dong Hyuk

    2012-01-01

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  14. Accident analysis device for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Masayuki.

    1982-01-01

    Purpose: To enable rapid recognition of and countermeasure required for accidents upon scram, by identifying the first contact point of causes for resulting the scram and displaying the contact point of causes. Constitution: When a scram signal is inputted by way of process input device, the time of the input is determined by a timer and the contact point of causes generated just before is taken as the point whose changes occurred prior to but most closely to the generation of the signal while referring to the data memory section for the time of change of the contact point of the cause, and sent to the accident analyzing display. The accident analyzing display extracts, based on the contact point of cause, a list for the forecast accidents corresponding thereto from the data memory section and also extracts the list for the corresponding confirmation items of the accident detection and displays them together with the system from which the scram signal has been generated, the time of generation, the name of the contact point of causes operated at first, and the value of the state quantity contained in the data memory section for the store of contact point of cause at the change. (Kawakami, Y.)

  15. Deterministic analyses of severe accident issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dua, S.S.; Moody, F.J.; Muralidharan, R.; Claassen, L.B.

    2004-01-01

    Severe accidents in light water reactors involve complex physical phenomena. In the past there has been a heavy reliance on simple assumptions regarding physical phenomena alongside of probability methods to evaluate risks associated with severe accidents. Recently GE has developed realistic methodologies that permit deterministic evaluations of severe accident progression and of some of the associated phenomena in the case of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These deterministic analyses indicate that with appropriate system modifications, and operator actions, core damage can be prevented in most cases. Furthermore, in cases where core-melt is postulated, containment failure can either be prevented or significantly delayed to allow sufficient time for recovery actions to mitigate severe accidents

  16. Primary school accident reporting in one education authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, A H A; Williams, W R; Sibert, J

    2002-02-01

    Studies have shown a correlation between increased accident rates and levels of deprivation in the community. School accident reporting is one area where an association might be expected. To investigate differences in primary school accident rates in deprived and more affluent wards, in an area managed by one education authority. Statistical analysis of accident form returns for 100 primary schools in one education authority in Wales over a two year period, in conjunction with visits to over one third of school sites. Accident report rates from schools in deprived wards were three times higher than those from schools in more affluent wards. School visits showed that this discrepancy was attributable primarily to differences in reporting procedures. One third of schools did not report accidents and approximately half did not keep records of minor accidents. The association between school accident report rates and deprivation in the community is complex. School accident data from local education authorities may be unreliable for most purposes of collection.

  17. [Implementation of safety devices: biological accident prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán Gómez, M Teresa; Sol Vidiella, Josep; Castellà Castellà, Manel; Castells Bo, Carolina; Losada Pla, Nuria; Espuny, Javier Lluís

    2010-04-01

    Accidental exposures to blood and biological material were the most frequent and potentially serious accidents in healthcare workers, reported in the Prevention of Occupational Risks Unit within 2002. Evaluate the biological percutaneous accidents decrease after a progressive introduction of safety devices. Biological accidents produced between 2.002 and 2.006 were analyzed and reported by the injured healthcare workers to the Level 2b Hospital Prevention of Occupational Risk Unit with 238 beds and 750 employees. The key of the study was the safety devices (peripheral i.v. catheter, needleless i.v. access device and capillary blood collection lancet). Within 2002, 54 percutaneous biological accidents were registered and 19 in 2006, that represents a 64.8% decreased. There has been no safety devices accident reported involving these material. Accidents registered during the implantation period occurred because safety devices were not used at that time. Safety devices have proven to be effective in reducing needle stick percutaneous accidents, so that they are a good choice in the primary prevention of biological accidents contact.

  18. Unavoidable Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Grady, Mark F.

    2009-01-01

    In negligence law, "unavoidable accident" is the risk that remains when an actor has used due care. The counterpart of unavoidable accident is "negligent harm." Negligence law makes parties immune for unavoidable accident even when they have used less than due care. Courts have developed a number of methods by which they "sort" accidents to unavoidable accident or to negligent harm, holding parties liable only for the latter. These sorting techniques are interesting in their own right and als...

  19. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and Odds of a Fatal Accident in Cirrus Aircraft Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaziz, Mustafa; Stolfi, Adrienne; Olson, Dean M

    2017-06-01

    General aviation (GA) accidents have continued to demonstrate high fatality rates. Recently, ballistic parachute recovery systems (BPRS) have been introduced as a safety feature in some GA aircraft. This study evaluates the effectiveness and associated factors of the Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) at reducing the odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Publicly available Cirrus aircraft crash reports were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database for the period of January 1, 2001-December 31, 2016. Accident metrics were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analyses regarding odds of a fatal accident and use of the parachute system. Included in the study were 268 accidents. For CAPS nondeployed accidents, 82 of 211 (38.9%) were fatal as compared to 8 of 57 (14.0%) for CAPS deployed accidents. After controlling for all other factors, the adjusted odds ratio for a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed was 13.1. The substantial increased odds of a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed demonstrated the effectiveness of CAPS at providing protection of occupants during an accident. Injuries were shifted from fatal to serious or minor with the use of CAPS and postcrash fires were significantly reduced. These results suggest that BPRS could play a significant role in the next major advance in improving GA accident survival.Alaziz M, Stolfi A, Olson DM. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(6):556-564.

  20. An accident diagnosis algorithm using long short-term memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaemin Yang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Accident diagnosis is one of the complex tasks for nuclear power plant (NPP operators. In abnormal or emergency situations, the diagnostic activity of the NPP states is burdensome though necessary. Numerous computer-based methods and operator support systems have been suggested to address this problem. Among them, the recurrent neural network (RNN has performed well at analyzing time series data. This study proposes an algorithm for accident diagnosis using long short-term memory (LSTM, which is a kind of RNN, which improves the limitation for time reflection. The algorithm consists of preprocessing, the LSTM network, and postprocessing. In the LSTM-based algorithm, preprocessed input variables are calculated to output the accident diagnosis results. The outputs are also postprocessed using softmax to determine the ranking of accident diagnosis results with probabilities. This algorithm was trained using a compact nuclear simulator for several accidents: a loss of coolant accident, a steam generator tube rupture, and a main steam line break. The trained algorithm was also tested to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing NPP accidents. Keywords: Accident Diagnosis, Long Short-term Memory, Recurrent Neural Network, Softmax

  1. Thyroid diseases after Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagataki, Shigenobu

    1993-01-01

    Radioactive iodine is released at every atomic-bomb testings and nuclear plants accidents and radioactive iodine is taken up by thyroid glands (internal radiation). In addition to the internal radiation, radioactive fallout causes the external radiation and thyroid glands are known to be sensitive to the external radiation. Furthermore, patients with radiation-induced thyroid disease can survive for a long time regardless of the treatment. The survey of thyroid diseases, therefore, is very sensitive and reliable ways to investigate the effects of radiation caused by atomic bomb explosion, testing and various types of nuclear plants' accidents. Our group from Nagasaki University was asked to investigate the thyroid diseases and jointed to the Sasakawa Project. In order to investigate the effects of radiation on thyroid disease, it is essential 1) to make a correct diagnosis in each subject, 2) to calculate a correct radiation dose in each subject and finally, 3) to find out the correlation between the radiation dose and thyroid diseases including age-, sex- and area-matched controls. We have established 5 centers (1 in Russia, 2 in Belarus, 2 in Ukraine) and supplied the most valuable ultrasonography instruments, commercial kits for the determination of serum free T 4 and TSH level and for the autoantibodies, instrument for urinary iodine measurements, syringers, tubes, refrigerators, etc. We visit each center often and asked people at centers to come to Japan for training. Protocol of investigation is essentially the same as that in Nagasaki, and we are planning to investigate more than 50,000 children within 5 years. We are hoping to show a definite conclusion in the near future. Recent articles are also discussed. (author)

  2. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Casal Fàbrega, Joaquim; Darbra Roman, Rosa Maria

    2010-01-01

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes a...

  3. Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeffer, W.; Hofer, E.; Nowak, E.; Schnadt, H.

    1988-01-01

    The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  4. Median Survival Time of Endometrial Cancer Patients with Lymphovascular Invasion at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyikeen, Wan Adnan Wan Nor; Siti-Azrin, Ab Hamid; Jalil, Nur Asyilla Che; Zin, Anani Aila Mat; Othman, Nor Hayati

    2016-11-01

    Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecologic malignancy among females worldwide. The purpose of this study was to determine the median survival time of endometrial cancer patients at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). A list of 121 endometrial cancer cases registered at Hospital USM between 2000 until 2011 was retrospectively reviewed. The survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Log-rank tests were performed to compare the survival of the patients based on socio-demographics and clinical presentation. Only 108 patients, 87.0%, were included who were of Malay ethnicity. Previous history included menopause in 67.6% of patients and diabetes mellitus in 39.8% of patients; additionally, 63.4% of patients were nulliparous. Tumour staging was as follows: 24.5% stage I, 10.8% stage II, 26.5% stage III and 38.2% stage IV. The overall median survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was 70.20 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 51.79, 88.61). The significant factors were age, the presence of lymphovascular invasion and treatment received. The overall survival of endometrial cancer was low. A prospective study needs to be carried out to discover more effective and accurate tests for the early detection of endometrial cancer.

  5. The time dependent association of adrenaline administration and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewy, Gordon A; Bobrow, Bentley J; Chikani, Vatsal; Sanders, Arthur B; Otto, Charles W; Spaite, Daniel W; Kern, Karl B

    2015-11-01

    Recommended for decades, the therapeutic value of adrenaline (epinephrine) in the resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is controversial. To investigate the possible time-dependent outcomes associated with adrenaline administration by Emergency Medical Services personnel (EMS). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a near statewide cardiac resuscitation database between 1 January 2005 and 30 November 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the time interval between EMS dispatch and the initial dose of adrenaline on survival. The primary endpoints were survival to hospital discharge and favourable neurologic outcome. Data from 3469 patients with witnessed OHCA were analyzed. Their mean age was 66.3 years and 69% were male. An initially shockable rhythm was present in 41.8% of patients. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model with initial adrenaline administration time interval (AATI) from EMS dispatch as the covariate, survival was greatest when adrenaline was administered very early but decreased rapidly with increasing (AATI); odds ratio 0.94 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.92-0.97). The AATI had no significant effect on good neurological outcome (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.90-1.02). In patients with OHCA, survival to hospital discharge was greater in those treated early with adrenaline by EMS especially in the subset of patients with a shockable rhythm. However survival rapidly decreased with increasing adrenaline administration time intervals (AATI). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Stress in accident and post-accident management at Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girard, P.; Dubreuil, G.H.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on the psychology of the affected population have been much discussed. The psychological dimension has been advanced as a factor explaining the emergence, from 1990 onwards, of a post-accident crisis in the main CIS countries affected. This article presents the conclusions of a series of European studies, which focused on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. These studies show that the psychological and social effects associated with the post-accident situation arise from the interdependency of a number of complex factors exerting a deleterious effect on the population. We shall first attempt to characterise the stress phenomena observed among the population affected by the accident. Secondly, we will be presenting an anlysis of the various factors that have contributed to the emerging psychological and social features of population reaction to the accident and in post-accident phases, while not neglecting the effects of the pre-accident situation on the target population. Thirdly, we shall devote some initial consideration to the conditions that might be conducive to better management of post-accident stress. In conclusion, we shall emphasise the need to restore confidence among the population generally. (Author)

  7. The communication of radiological risk to populations exposed to a radiological accident: considerations concerning the accident in Goiania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curado, M.P.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to describe the reactions of a population subjected to the effects of a radiological accident and receiving information about radiation effects for the first time. The behaviour of the victims during various phases of the accident is discussed. (author)

  8. Addressing severe accidents in the CANDU 9 design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nijhawan, S.M.; Wight, A.L.; Snell, V.G.

    1998-01-01

    CANDU 9 is a single-unit evolutionary heavy-water reactor based on the Bruce/Darlington plants. Severe accident issues are being systematically addressed in CANDU 9, which includes a number of unique features for prevention and mitigation of severe accidents. A comprehensive severe accident program has been formulated with feedback from potential clients and the Canadian regulatory agency. Preliminary Probabilistic Safety Analyses have identified the sequences and frequency of system and human failures that may potentially lead to initial conditions indicating onset of severe core damage. Severe accident consequence analyses have used these sequences as a guide to assess passive heat sinks for the core, and containment performance. Estimates of the containment response to mass and energy injections typical of postulated severe accidents have been made and the results are presented. We find that inherent CANDU severe accident mitigation features, such as the presence of large water volumes near the fuel (moderator and shield tank), permit a relatively slow severe accident progression under most plant damage states, facilitate debris coolability and allow ample time for the operator to arrest the progression within, progressively, the fuel channels, calandria vessel or shield tank. The large-volume CANDU 9 containment design complements these features because of the long times to reach failure

  9. Aging, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), and high potential testing of damaged cables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vigil, R.A.; Jacobus, M.J.

    1994-04-01

    Experiments were conducted to assess the effects of high potential testing of cables and to assess the survivability of aged and damaged cables under Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. High potential testing at 240 Vdc/mil on undamaged cables suggested that no damage was incurred on the selected virgin cables. During aging and LOCA testing, Okonite ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cables with a bonded jacket experienced unexpected failures. The failures appear to be primarily related to the level of thermal aging and the presence of a bonded jacket that ages more rapidly than the insulation. For Brand Rex crosslinked polyolefin (XLPO) cables, the results suggest that 7 mils of insulation remaining should give the cables a high probability of surviving accident exposure following aging. The voltage necessary to detect when 7 mils of insulation remain on unaged Brand Rex cables is approximately 35 kVdc. This voltage level would almost certainly be unacceptable to a utility for use as a damage assessment tool. However, additional tests indicated that a 35 kvdc voltage application would not damage virgin Brand Rex cables when tested in water. Although two damaged Rockbestos silicone rubber cables also failed during the accident test, no correlation between failures and level of damage was apparent

  10. Accidents in radiotherapy: Lack of quality assurance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novotny, J.

    1997-01-01

    About 150 radiological accidents, involving more than 3000 patients with adverse effects, 15 patient's fatalities and about 5000 staff and public exposures have been collected and analysed. Out of 67 analysed accidents in external beam therapy 22% has been caused by wrong calculation of the exposure time or monitor units, 13% by inadequate review of patient's chart, 12% by mistakes in the anatomical area to be treated. The remaining 35% can be attributed to 17 different causes. The most common mistakes in brachytherapy were wrong activities of sources used for treatment (20%), inadequate procedures for placement of sources applicators (14%), mistakes in calculating the treatment time (12%), etc. The direct and contributing causes of radiological accidents have been deduced from each event, when it was possible and categorized into 9 categories: mistakes in procedures (30%), professional mistakes (17%), communication mistakes (15%), lack of training (8.5%), interpretation mistakes (7%), lack of supervision (6%), mistakes in judgement (6%), hardware failures (5%), software and other mistakes (5.5%). Three types of direct and contributing causes responsible for almost 62% of all accidents are directly connected to the quality assurance of treatment. The lessons learnt from the accidents are related to frequencies of direct and contributing factors and show that most of the accident are caused by lack, non-application of quality assurance (QA) procedures or by underestimating of QA procedures. The international system for collection of accidents and dissemination of lessons learnt from the different accidents, proposed by IAEA, can contribute to better practice in many radiotherapy departments. Most of the accidents could have been avoided, had a comprehensive QA programme been established and properly applied in all radiotherapy departments, whatever the size. (author)

  11. 33 CFR 150.503 - What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls? 150.503 Section 150.503 Navigation and Navigable Waters... maintenance on survival craft falls? (a) Each fall used in a launching device for survival craft or rescue...

  12. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  13. Chernobyl accident: the crisis of the international radiation community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malko, M.V.

    1998-01-01

    The information given in the present report about the Chernobyl accident and its radiological consequences indicates a serious crisis of the international radiation community. The following signs of this crises can be discerned: The international radiation community did not recognize the real reasons of the accident for a long time. It could not make a correct assessment of the damage to the thyroid of the affected populations of Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. Up to present time it rejects the reliable data on hereditary malformations. It is not able to accept reliable data on the increase in the incidence in all categories of people affected by the Chernobyl accident. The international radiation community supported the Soviet authorities in their attempts to play down the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident for a long time. (author)

  14. Chernobyl accident. The crisis of the international radiation community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malko, Mikhail V.

    2016-01-01

    The information given in the present report about the Chernobyl accident and its radiological consequences indicates a serious crisis of the international radiation community. The following signs of this crises can be discerned: The international radiation community did not recognize the real reasons of the accident for a long time. It could not make a correct assessment of the damage to the thyroid of the affected populations of Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. Up to present time it rejects the reliable data on hereditary malformations. It is not able to accept reliable data on the increase in the incidence in all categories of people affected by the Chernobyl accident. The international radiation community supported the Soviet authorities in their attempts to play down the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident for a long time. (author)

  15. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  16. Methodology for time-dependent reliability analysis of accident sequences and complex reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paula, H.M.

    1984-01-01

    The work presented here is of direct use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is of value to utilities as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Specifically, this report presents a methodology and a computer program to calculate the expected number of occurrences for each accident sequence in an event tree. The methodology evaluates the time-dependent (instantaneous) and the average behavior of the accident sequence. The methodology accounts for standby safety system and component failures that occur (a) before they are demanded, (b) upon demand, and (c) during the mission (system operation). With respect to failures that occur during the mission, this methodology is unique in the sense that it models components that can be repaired during the mission. The expected number of system failures during the mission provides an upper bound for the probability of a system failure to run - the mission unreliability. The basic event modeling includes components that are continuously monitored, periodically tested, and those that are not tested or are otherwise nonrepairable. The computer program ASA allows practical applications of the method developed. This work represents a required extension of the presently available methodology and allows a more realistic PRA of nuclear power plants

  17. Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

    2016-02-01

    Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Palliative Sedation in Advanced Cancer Patients: Does it Shorten Survival Time? - A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barathi, B; Chandra, Prabha S

    2013-01-01

    Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST) was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  19. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  20. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  1. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.

    1988-08-01

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  2. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  3. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  4. SAMEX: A severe accident management support expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il

    2010-01-01

    A decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant is being developed which is aided by a severe accident risk database module and a severe accident management simulation module. The severe accident management support expert (SAMEX) system can provide the various types of diagnostic and predictive assistance based on the real-time plant specific safety parameters. It consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) severe accident risk data base module (SARDB), (b) risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD), (c) severe accident management simulation module (SAMS), and (d) on-line severe accident management guidance module (on-line SAMG). The modules are integrated into a code package that executes within a WINDOWS XP operating environment, using extensive user friendly graphics control. In Korea, the integrated approach of the decision support system is being carried out under the nuclear R and D program planned by the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST). An objective of the project is to develop the support system which can show a theoretical possibility. If the system is feasible, the project team will recommend the radiation protection technical support center of a national regulatory body to implement a plant specific system, which is applicable to a real accident, for the purpose of immediate and various diagnosis based on the given plant status information and of prediction of an expected accident progression under a severe accident situation.

  5. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  6. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  8. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine B. Nasejje

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  9. Application of FFTBM to severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Leskovar, M.

    2005-01-01

    In Europe an initiative for the reduction of uncertainties in severe accident safety issues was initiated. Generally, the error made in predicting plant behaviour is called uncertainty, while the discrepancies between measured and calculated trends related to experimental facilities are called the accuracy of the prediction. The purpose of the work is to assess the accuracy of the calculations of the severe accident International Standard Problem ISP-46 (Phebus FPT1), performed with two versions of MELCOR 1.8.5 for validation purposes. For the quantitative assessment of calculations the improved fast Fourier transform based method (FFTBM) was used with the capability to calculate time dependent code accuracy. In addition, a new measure for the indication of the time shift between the experimental and the calculated signal was proposed. The quantitative results obtained with FFTBM confirm the qualitative conclusions made during the Jozef Stefan Institute participation in ISP-46. In general good agreement of thermal-hydraulic variables and satisfactory agreement of total releases for most radionuclide classes was obtained. The quantitative FFTBM results showed that for the Phebus FPT1 severe accident experiment the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables calculated with the MELCOR severe accident code is close to the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables for design basis accident experiments calculated with best-estimate system codes. (author)

  10. Loss-of-coolant accident mitigation for the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, N.C.J.; Wendel, M.W.; Yoder, G.L. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    A RELAP5 Advanced Neutron Source Reactor system model has been developed for the conceptual design safety analysis. Three major regions modeled are the core, the heat exchanger loops, and letdown/pressurizing system. The model has been used to examine design alternatives for mitigation of loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) transients. The safety margins to the flow excursion limit and critical heat flux are presented. The results show that the core can survive an instantaneous double-ended guillotine of the core outlet piping break (610 mm-diameter) provided a cavitating venturi is employed. RELAP5 calculations were also used to determine the effects of using a non-instantaneous break opening times. Both break opening time and break formation characteristics were included in these parametric calculations. Accumulator optimization studies were also performed which suggest that an optimum accumulator bubble size exists which improves system performance under some break scenarios

  11. Enhancement of radiation effect on mouse intestinal crypt survival by timing of 5-fluorouracil administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, E.; Coffey, C.; Maruyama, Y.

    1977-01-01

    There is a marked dependence of mouse crypt survival on the sequence of combined drug-radiation treatment and on the time lapse between irradiation and drug administration. When 5-fluorouracil is administered 6 hours after irradiation or later (up to 18 hours postirradiation), crypt survival drops significantly

  12. Internal dose assessment in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toohey, R.E.

    2003-01-01

    Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs of interest need to be computed from first principles. Standard bioassay methods may be used to assess body contents, but, again, the standard models for bioassay interpretation may not be applicable because of the circumstances of the accident and the prompt initiation of decorporation therapy. Examples of modifications to the standard methodologies include adjustment of biological half-times under therapy, such as in the Goiania accident, and the same effect, complicated by continued input from contaminated wounds, in the Hanford 241 Am accident. (author)

  13. Analysis of hot leg natural circulation under station blackout severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng Jian; Cao Xuewu

    2007-01-01

    Under severe accidents, natural circulation flows are important to influence the accident progression and result in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). In a station blackout accident with no recovery of steam generator (SG) auxiliary feedwater (TMLB' severe accident scenario), the hot leg countercurrent natural circulation flow is analyzed by using a severe-accident code, to better understand its potential impacts on the creep-rupture timing among the surge line, the hot leg; and SG tubes. The results show that the natural circulation may delay the failure time of the hot leg. The recirculation ratio and the hot mixing factor are also calculated and discussed. (authors)

  14. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  16. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  17. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

    2010-11-15

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

    2013-01-01

    In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

  20. United States position on severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, D.F.

    1988-01-01

    The United States policy on severe accidents was published in 1985 for both new plant applications and for existing plants. Implementation of this policy is in progress. This policy, aided by a related safety goal policy and by analysis capabilities emerging from improved understanding of accident phenomenology, is viewed as a logical development from the pioneering work in the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study published by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 1975. This work provided an estimate of the probability and consequences of severe accidents which, prior to that time, had been mostly evaluated by somewhat arbitrary assumptions dating back 30 years. The early history of severe accident evaluation is briefly summarized for the period 1957-1979. Then, the galvanizing action of Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) on severe accident analysis, experimentation and regulation is reviewed. Expressions of US policy in the form of rulemaking, severe accident policy, safety research, safety goal policy and court decisions (on adequacy of safety) are discussed. Finally, the NRC policy as of March 1988 is stated, along with a prospective look at the next few years. (author). 19 refs

  1. Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

    2017-10-01

    Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Accident information needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-01-01

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information

  3. Accident information needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-12-31

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

  4. Accident information needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-01-01

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

  5. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2016-10-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  6. The Human Aspect of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anegawa, T.; Kawano, A.

    2016-01-01

    Recognizing itself as the main party involved in the nuclear accident triggered by the Tohoku-Chihou-Taiheiyo-Oki Earthquake on March 11, 2011, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has performed accident investigation from various aspects. Results of the investigation are reported mainly in two reports; (1) Fukushima Nuclear Accident Analysis Report (June 20, 2012), which identified the timeline and the proximate causes of the accident, and (2) Summary of Fukushima Nuclear Accident and Nuclear Safety Reform Plan (March 29, 2013) to set forth the results of the investigation and provide an analysis of the background factors surrounding the accident and countermeasures taken. This presentation will first provide overview of the accident response at Fukushima Daiichi and Daini Nuclear Power Stations. Voices from the first responders at the sites will be introduced in order to share thoughts of individuals involved in the emergency response. Summary of retrospective study of the accident by one of the shift supervisors at the time of the accident will be presented in order to share the facts that happened at main control rooms. The shift supervisor and his crew had to manage the situation for extended period of time that exceeded the scenarios that they had been trained, in a situation with no lightning and high radiation condition. During the accident response, shift supervisors had to decide to dispatch some of his crew members to the field to open valves, check the status of equipment etc., in the situation where the high radiation exposure is foreseen. The presentation will include conflict of shift supervisors and crew focusing on the human aspects. In addition, actions being taken at the Emergency Response Centers (ERC) set up at the seismic-isolated building on-site and the Headquarters in Tokyo will be shared focusing on the human aspects related to the accident progress. This includes difficult decisions to dispatch first responders to the field, in the

  7. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 1/5. Description and Context of the Accident. Annexes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-08-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Accident consists of a Report by the IAEA Director General and five technical volumes. It is the result of an extensive international collaborative effort involving five working groups with about 180 experts from 42 Member States with and without nuclear power programmes and several international bodies. It provides a description of the accident and its causes, evolution and consequences, based on the evaluation of data and information from a large number of sources available at the time of writing. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident will be of use to national authorities, international organizations, nuclear regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant operating organizations, designers of nuclear facilities and other experts in matters relating to nuclear power, as well as the wider public. The set contains six printed parts and five supplementary CD-ROMs. Contents: Report by the Director General; Technical Volume 1/5, Description and Context of the Accident; Technical Volume 2/5, Safety Assessment; Technical Volume 3/5, Emergency Preparedness and Response; Technical Volume 4/5, Radiological Consequences; Technical Volume 5/5, Post-accident Recovery; Annexes. The Report by the Director General is available separately in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish and Japanese

  8. Return to work of road accident victims claiming compensation for personal injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornes, P

    1992-01-01

    Road accidents resulting in personal injury are an increasing cost to society. This study is based on 609 accident victims (of whom 521 survived injury) who were in employment when injured and whose claims for personal injury were settled for 5000 pounds or more by one insurance company over 2 years. It examines survivors' residual disablement, return to work and involvement with rehabilitation services. Data on a representative sample of 101 cases are analysed in more detail to identify possible 'predictors' of return to work. Both univariate and stepwise logistic regression analysis suggest that return to work is less associated with clinical variables, on which much medical advice on return to work is based, than with such other variables as time off work, absence of psychological problems and younger age. Very low rates of referral to rehabilitation may indicate that a rehabilitative approach to cost containment is underutilized in comparison with the traditional emphasis on preventive measures and enhanced medical treatment. More effective rehabilitation, however, may require new approaches to clinical case management, especially in orthopaedic departments where most personal injury claimants are treated.

  9. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  10. Severity of electrical accidents in the construction industry in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; López-Arquillos, Antonio

    2014-02-01

    This paper analyzes the severity of workplace accidents involving electricity in the Spanish construction sector comprising 2,776 accidents from 2003 to 2008. The investigation considered the impact of 13 variables, classified into 5 categories: Personal, Business, Temporal, Material, and Spatial. The findings showed that electrical accidents are almost five times more likely to have serious consequences than the average accident in the sector and it also showed how the variables of age, occupation, company size, length of service, preventive measures, time of day, days of absence, physical activity, material agent, type of injury, body part injured, accident location, and type of location are related to the severity of the electrical accidents under consideration. The present situation makes it clear that greater effort needs to be made in training, monitoring, and signage to guarantee a safe working environment in relation to electrical hazards. This research enables safety technicians, companies, and government officials to identify priorities and to design training strategies to minimize the serious consequences of electrical accidents for construction workers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  11. NPP Krsko Severe Accident Management Guidelines Implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basic, I.; Krajnc, B.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

    2002-01-01

    Severe Accident Management is a framework to identify and implement the Emergency Response Capabilities that can be used to prevent or mitigate severe accidents and their consequences. The USA NRC has indicated that the development of a licensee plant specific accident management program will be required in order to close out the severe accident regulatory issue (Ref. SECY-88-147). Generic Letter 88-20 ties the Accident management Program to IPE for each plant. The SECY-89-012 defines those actions taken during the course of an accident by the plant operating and technical staff to: 1) prevent core damage, 2) terminate the progress of core damage if it begins and retain the core within the reactor vessel, 3) maintain containment integrity as long as possible, and 4) minimize offsite releases. The subject of this paper is to document the severe accident management activities, which resulted in a plant specific Severe Accident Management Guidelines implementation. They have been developed based on the Krsko IPE (Individual Plant Examination) insights, Generic WOG SAMGs (Westinghouse Owners Group Severe Accident Management Guidances) and plant specific documents developed within this effort. Among the required plant specific actions the following are the most important ones: Identification and documentation of those Krsko plant specific severe accident management features (which also resulted from the IPE investigations). The development of the Krsko plant specific background documents (Severe Accident Plant Specific Strategies and SAMG Setpoint Calculation). Also, paper discusses effort done in the areas of NPP Krsko SAMG review (internal and external ), validation on Krsko Full Scope Simulator (Severe Accident sequences are simulated by MAAP4 in real time) and world 1st IAEA Review of Accident Management Programmes (RAMP). (author)

  12. The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caird, J K; Kline, T J

    2004-12-01

    Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

  13. Work-related accidents and occupational diseases in veterinarians and their staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienhaus, Albert; Skudlik, Christoph; Seidler, Andreas

    2005-04-01

    We assessed the occupational hazards in veterinary practice by analysing accident insurance data in order to stimulate strategies to prevent occupational accidents and diseases in veterinarians and their staff. Approximately 10,000 veterinary practices comprising about 27,500 veterinarians and their staff are covered by the Institution of Statutory Accident Insurance of the Health and Welfare Service (BGW). Each year about 2,000 accident and occupational disease claims are filed by these veterinarians and their staff. The claims for the 5-year period from 1998 to 2002 are analysed in this paper. For 2002, the incidence rate for accidents in the workplace was 105.4 per 1,000 full-time workers, a rate 2.9-times higher than for general practitioners of human medicine. When only severe accidents resulting in a loss of work time of more than 3 days were analysed, the relative risk increased to 9.2. Approximately 66% of the reported accidents are due to scratches, bites, or kicks from animals. Claims of occupational disease are filed 2.7-times more often by veterinarians and their staff than by general practitioners and their staff. The occupational diseases filed most often concern the skin (39%), followed by allergic respiratory diseases (30.5%), and infectious diseases (19.1%). Prevention strategies for veterinarians should focus on accidents caused by animals. The prevention of occupational diseases should focus on skin diseases, respiratory disease, and infections.

  14. Self-similar risk characteristics of industrial accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puzanov, Y.V.

    1994-01-01

    At the present time there is no logically consistent theory of risk of industrial accidents, just as for the risk of other catastrophic phenomena (natural disasters, ecological castastrophes). Moreover, there is no unique interpretation of the term risk itself in application to catastrophic phenomena, and different authors employ the concept of risk arbitrarily, often proceeding from intuitively obvious ideas. The risk of an accident is most often identified with the probability of the accident itself (with a flux of accident events), the probability of loss of life or damage due to catastrophic phenomena. However, every such concept has its own independent meaning, and identifying these concepts with risk is fraught with confusion

  15. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats

  16. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats.

  17. Community response against the nuclear accident. Confusion in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear accident and its features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Yoshihiro

    2014-01-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred in April 1986, became popular in Sweden after two days, and Sweden was hit by a big mess immediately after that. This paper introduces various actions taken in Sweden at that time. The authors analyzed the situation based on the following materials to tell the situation at that time: (1) materials summarized by researchers upon request of the administrative organs of the country, (2) two diaries that were written by Sven Aner, who was a former reporter of a major daily newspaper published after the accident and an activist of antinuclear groups, and Sven Lofvegerg, who handled the accident as a technical officer at Radiation Protection Agency, and (3) newspaper articles at that time. The situations that was revealed after the accident were summarized from the following viewpoints: (1) governmental remarks toward safety standards and effects on residents, and the anxiety of residents, (2) grazing ban on livestock as an important industry and its lifting, (3) correspondence of antinuclear activists, (4) anxiety against the effects of radiation on humans, and counseling on the safety addressed to the Headquarters for Disaster Control, (5) roles of regional radio stations, (6) defects of bureaucracy, (7) criticism against the actions of the Headquarters for Disaster Control, and (8) influence of extreme experts. (A.O.)

  18. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  19. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.

  20. The Chernobyl accident - five years later

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueck, K.

    1991-06-01

    At the fifth anniversary of the Chernobyl accident the initial situation at that time, the control of the consequences to Austria in the present light, as well as the knowledge gained from the accident and its consequences are described. A final estimate and appraisal of the total population dose by the accident alloted according to the individual exposure pathways and the dose reductions due to countermeasures by the authorities are given. The dose reduction in the following years is described. Five years later the external exposure was reduced to about 6 % of the values of the first year, the ingestion dose to about 5 % of the first-year-values. Finally, the current radiation situation is described and the dose contribution by foodstuff with elevated activity concentration is estimated. Also the consequences from the experience and knowledge obtained by the accident are described. (author)

  1. Severe accident sequences simulated at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbajo, J.J.

    1999-01-01

    Different severe accident sequences employing the MELCOR code, version 1.8.4 QK, have been simulated at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (Grand Gulf). The postulated severe accidents simulated are two low-pressure, short-term, station blackouts; two unmitigated small-break (SB) loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) (SBLOCAs); and one unmitigated large LOCA (LLOCA). The purpose of this study was to calculate best-estimate timings of events and source terms for a wide range of severe accidents and to compare the plant response to these accidents

  2. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    Science.gov (United States)

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  3. Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases.

  4. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  5. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garzon, Benjamin; Emblem, Kyrre E.; Mouridsen, Kim; Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K.; Bjoernerud, Atle; Haaberg, Asta K.; Kvinnsland, Yngve

    2011-01-01

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  6. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garzon, Benjamin (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)), email: benjamin.garzon@ntnu.no; Emblem, Kyrre E. (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Dept. of Radiology, MGH-HST AA Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)); Mouridsen, Kim (Center of Functionally Integrative Neuroscience, Aarhus Univ., Aarhus (Denmark)); Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K. (Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Bjoernerud, Atle (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Haaberg, Asta K. (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Dept. of Medical Imaging, St Olav' s Hospital, Trondheim (Norway)); Kvinnsland, Yngve (NordicImagingLab, Bergen (Norway))

    2011-11-15

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  7. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHOI, Wan-Suk; KIM, Bo-Kyung; KIM, Ki-Do; MOON, Ok-Kon; YEUM, Dong-Moon

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction. The Korea Workers’ Compensation & Welfare Service conducted the first nationwide panel survey on occupational health and safety insurance in 2013–2014 through a stratified systematic sampling on 2,000 industrial accident workers who completed convalescence. Based on the dataset, our study analyzed 1,832 workers experiencing an industrial accident after excluding 168 disease patients. For the research model analysis, a four-stage hierarchical regression analysis technique was applied using the SPSS regression analysis Macro program of PROCESS Procedure. To test mediated indirect effects of the self-esteem and sleeping time, the bootstrapping technique was applied. Life satisfaction, self-esteem and sleeping time decreased as the number of painful stimuli increased. Life satisfaction decreased as self-esteem and sleeping time decreased. On balance, the partial mediation model confirmed that self-esteem and sleeping time both mediate the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction. PMID:27021061

  8. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Kim, Bo-Kyung; Kim, Ki-Do; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2016-10-08

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction. The Korea Workers' Compensation & Welfare Service conducted the first nationwide panel survey on occupational health and safety insurance in 2013-2014 through a stratified systematic sampling on 2,000 industrial accident workers who completed convalescence. Based on the dataset, our study analyzed 1,832 workers experiencing an industrial accident after excluding 168 disease patients. For the research model analysis, a four-stage hierarchical regression analysis technique was applied using the SPSS regression analysis Macro program of PROCESS Procedure. To test mediated indirect effects of the self-esteem and sleeping time, the bootstrapping technique was applied. Life satisfaction, self-esteem and sleeping time decreased as the number of painful stimuli increased. Life satisfaction decreased as self-esteem and sleeping time decreased. On balance, the partial mediation model confirmed that self-esteem and sleeping time both mediate the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction.

  9. [Frequently accidents and injury at school].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier Vargas, María; Martínez González, Vanesa

    2011-01-01

    During the time we have been in a private company that provide schools with medical care, we were surprised by the frequent and constant phone calls received to ask for our services. This fact made us take the decision to carry out a survey to find out the accidents and the most frequent injuries. According to the retrospective study we realized throughout two different academic courses in several schools in Cantabria, the 3.23% of the students have any accidents or injuries. We found out children between 11 and 15 have the highest accident rate, being 10.8 % higher when boys (rather than girls) are involved. The most common injuries are contusions 42.85%, followed by sprains 23.45%, being blows the reason in 42% of the cases, and surprisingly acts of aggression in 1%. It was also unexpected to learn that gyms, where children are taught in physical education, have the highest percent on accident rate. All these inquiries lead us to think that age, play and sports are determinant factors in the accidents happened in the school area.

  10. Time to treatment as a quality metric in lung cancer: Staging studies, time to treatment, and patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, Daniel R.; Liao, Kai-Ping; Swisher, Stephen G.; Blumenschein, George R.; Erasmus, Jeremy J.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Giordano, Sharon H.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis

  11. Thyroid cancer among Ukrainians and Belarusians who were children or adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P; Bogdanova, T I; Buglova, E; Chepurniy, M; Demidchik, Y; Gavrilin, Y; Kenigsberg, J; Kruk, J; Schotola, C; Shinkarev, S; Tronko, M D; Vavilov, S

    2006-01-01

    Our objective is to assess the regional and temporal dependences of the baseline cases contributing to thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood or during adolescence in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Data are analysed for Kyiv and Sevastopol City and the 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and for Minsk and Gomel City and the 6 oblasts in Belarus. Average thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for every birth year in the period from 1968 to 1985. Case data pertain to people who underwent surgical removal of thyroid cancers during the period 1986 to 2001 and who were allocated to their place of residence at the time of the accident. The 35 oblasts/cities were subdivided into an upper, middle and lower group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. Poisson regressions were performed to estimate age, time and gender dependences of the baseline incidence rates in the three groups. The majority of oblasts/cities with high average doses and the majority of Belarusian oblasts/cities belong to the upper group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. The baseline in the upper group is estimated to be larger than in the middle group by a factor of 2.3, and by a factor of 4.0 when compared to the lower group. The baseline incidence increases with age and with time since exposure. Estimated baseline incidence rates were found to increase from 1988 to 1999 by factors of three and two for the upper and the two lower groups respectively. The estimated thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus and Ukraine, and their dependences on gender and age, are consistent with observed rates found in the larger cancer registries of other countries. In conclusion, the baseline cases are found to contribute about 70% to the thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine, and about 40% to the incidence in Belarus

  12. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  13. Study on severe accident induced by large break loss of coolant accident for pressureized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Longfei; Zhang Dafa; Wang Shaoming

    2007-01-01

    Using the best estimate computer code SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 and taking US Westinghouse corporation Surry nuclear power plant as the reference object, a typical three-loop pressurized water reactor severe accident calculation model was established and 25 cm large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) in cold and hot leg of primary loop induced core melt accident was analyzed. The calculated results show that core melt progression is fast and most of the core material melt and relocated to the lower plenum. The lower head of reactor pressure vessel failed at an early time and the cold leg break is more severe than the hot leg break in primary loop during LBLOCA. (authors)

  14. The role of donor age and ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rizzo, D F; Menkis, A H; Pflugfelder, P W; Novick, R J; McKenzie, F N; Boyd, W D; Kostuk, W J

    1999-04-01

    The advances in immunotherapy, along with a liberalization of eligibility criteria have contributed significantly to the ever increasing demand for donor organs. In an attempt to expand the donor pool, transplant programs are now accepting older donors as well as donors from more remote areas. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of donor age and organ ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). From April 1981 to December 1996 372 adult patients underwent OHT at the University of Western Ontario. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of outcome. Variables affecting survival were then entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to develop probability models for 30-day- and 1-year-mortality. The mean age of the recipient population was 45.6 +/- 12.3 years (range 18-64 years: 54 56 years). The majority (329 patients, 86.1%) were male and the most common indications for OHT were ischemic (n = 180) and idiopathic (n = 171) cardiomyopathy. Total ischemic time (TIT) was 202.4 +/- 84.5 minutes (range 47-457 minutes). In 86 donors TIT was under 2 hours while it was between 2 and 4 hours in 168, and more than 4 hours in 128 donors. Actuarial survival was 80%, 73%, and 55% at 1, 5, and 10 years respectively. By Cox proportional hazards models, recipient status (Status I-II vs III-IV; risk ratio 1.75; p = 0.003) and donor age, examined as either a continuous or categorical variable ([age or = 35; risk ratio 1.98; p or = 50; risk ratio 2.20; p or = 50; risk ratio 1.83; p 50 years (p = 0.009). By stepwise logistic regression analysis, a probability model for survival was then developed based on donor age, the interaction between donor age and ischemic time, and patient status. Improvements in myocardial preservation and peri-operative management may allow for the safe utilization of donor organs with prolonged ischemic times. Older donors are associated with decreased peri-operative and long

  15. Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Joshua L; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2018-06-01

    While there is a literature on the distribution of food stores across geographic and social space, much of this research uses cross-sectional data. Analyses attempting to understand whether the availability of stores across neighborhoods is associated with diet and/or health outcomes are limited by a lack of understanding of factors that shape the emergence of new stores and the closure of others. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations spanning seven years (2006-2012) and tract-level census data in four US cities: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Francisco, California. A spatial discrete-time survival model was used to identify factors associated with an earlier and/or later closure time of a store. Sales volume was typically the strongest indicator of store survival. We identified heterogeneity in the association between tract-level poverty and racial composition with respect to store survival. Stores in high poverty, non-White tracts were often at a disadvantage in terms of survival length. The observed patterns of store survival varied by some of the same neighborhood sociodemographic factors associated with lifestyle and health outcomes, which could lead to confusion in interpretation in studies of the estimated effects of introduction of food stores into neighborhoods on health.

  16. Severe accidents at nuclear power plants. Their risk assessment and accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Kiyoharu.

    1995-05-01

    This document is to explain the severe accident issues. Severe Accidents are defined as accidents which are far beyond the design basis and result in severe damage of the core. Accidents at Three Mild Island in USA and at Chernobyl in former Soviet Union are examples of severe accidents. The causes and progressions of the accidents as well as the actions taken are described. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a method to estimate the risk of severe accidents at nuclear reactors. The methodology for PSA is briefly described and current status on its application to safety related issues is introduced. The acceptability of the risks which inherently accompany every technology is then discussed. Finally, provision of accident management in Japan is introduced, including the description of accident management measures proposed for BWRs and PWRs. (author)

  17. Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

  18. Radioactive contamination from Chernobyl accident over Alexandria city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammar, E.A.; El-Khatib, A.M.; Wahba, A.G.; Elraey, M.

    1987-01-01

    The concentration of radioactive contamination in air resulting from the Chernobyl accident has been followed up. A sudden and sharp increase was detected seven days after the start of the accident. This increase amounted to about 650 times the normal air-borne activity. (author)

  19. Accident sequences simulated at the Juragua nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbajo, J.J.

    1998-01-01

    Different hypothetical accident sequences have been simulated at Unit 1 of the Juragua nuclear power plant in Cuba, a plant with two VVER-440 V213 units under construction. The computer code MELCOR was employed for these simulations. The sequences simulated are: (1) a design-basis accident (DBA) large loss of coolant accident (LOCA) with the emergency core coolant system (ECCS) on, (2) a station blackout (SBO), (3) a small LOCA (SLOCA) concurrent with SBO, (4) a large LOCA (LLOCA) concurrent with SBO, and (5) a LLOCA concurrent with SBO and with the containment breached at time zero. Timings of important events and source term releases have been calculated for the different sequences analyzed. Under certain weather conditions, the fission products released from the severe accident sequences may travel to southern Florida

  20. Severe accident phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jokiniemi, J.; Kilpi, K.; Lindholm, I.; Maekynen, J.; Pekkarinen, E.; Sairanen, R.; Silde, A.

    1995-02-01

    Severe accidents are nuclear reactor accidents in which the reactor core is substantially damaged. The report describes severe reactor accident phenomena and their significance for the safety of nuclear power plants. A comprehensive set of phenomena ranging from accident initiation to containment behaviour and containment integrity questions are covered. The report is based on expertise gained in the severe accident assessment projects conducted at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). (49 refs., 32 figs., 12 tabs.)

  1. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A.; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Importance Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. Objective To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Exposures Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Results Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87

  2. Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

    2018-04-01

    In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

  3. Joint research project WASA-BOSS: Further development and application of severe accident codes. Assessment and optimization of accident management measures. Project B: Accident analyses for pressurized water reactors with the application of the ATHLET-CD code; Verbundprojekt WASA-BOSS: Weiterentwicklung und Anwendung von Severe Accident Codes. Bewertung und Optimierung von Stoerfallmassnahmen. Teilprojekt B: Druckwasserreaktor-Stoerfallanalysen unter Verwendung des Severe-Accident-Codes ATHLET-CD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Wilhelm, Polina

    2017-02-15

    Within the framework of the project an ATHLET-CD input deck for a generic German PWR of type KONVOI has been created. This input deck was applied to the simulation of severe accidents from the accident categories station blackout (SBO) and small-break loss-of-coolant accidents (SBLOCA). The complete accident transient from initial event at full power until the damage of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is covered and all relevant severe accident phenomena are modelled: start of core heat up, fission product release, melting of fuel and absorber material, oxidation and release of hydrogen, relocation of molten material inside the core, relocation to the lower plenum, damage and failure of the RPV. The model has been applied to the analysis of preventive and mitigative accident management measures for SBO and SBLOCA transients. Therefore, the measures primary side depressurization (PSD), injection to the primary circuit by mobile pumps and for SBLOCA the delayed injection by the cold leg hydro-accumulators have been investigated and the assumptions and start criteria of these measures have been varied. The time evolutions of the transients and time margins for the initiation of additional measures have been assessed. An uncertainty and sensitivity study has been performed for the early phase of one SBO scenario with PSD (until the start of core melt). In addition to that, a code -to-code comparison between ATHLET-CD and the severe accident code MELCOR has been carried out.

  4. Severe accident management (SAM), operator training and instrumentation capabilities - Summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed to. Though uncertainties still remain in the understanding of some severe accident phenomena, this should not be considered as a de-facto impediment against using simplified models both as operator aids in the course of an accident and as an option of a simulator severe accident mathematical model. These tools, however, should be based on state-of-the-art physics and calibrated using more sophisticated codes. Having the capability for periodic assessment of trends and predictions against real plant parameter evolution, and subsequent correction, is also advised for such tools. Being prepared for the unexpected is the major objective pursued in training, especially when capabilities extend into severe accident situations. When training for severe accidents is contemplated, skill-oriented sessions should be emphasized as they allow evaluating operator reactions in highly perturbed situations. However, it is also advised to increase operator awareness in case of severe accident situations through tailored sessions stressing knowledge of basic phenomena involved in degraded situations. Though computer-based training could well prevail in the long run, table-top exercises as currently implemented by many utilities also bring extremely valuable results

  5. Criticality accident of nuclear fuel facility. Think back on JCO criticality accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naito, Keiji

    2003-09-01

    This book is written in order to understand the fundamental knowledge of criticality safety or criticality accident of nuclear fuel facility by the citizens. It consists of four chapters such as critical conditions and criticality accident of nuclear facility, risk of criticality accident, prevention of criticality accident and a measure at an occurrence of criticality accident. A definition of criticality, control of critical conditions, an aspect of accident, a rate of incident, damage, three sufferers, safety control method of criticality, engineering and administrative control, safety design of criticality, investigation of failure of safety control of JCO criticality accident, safety culture are explained. JCO criticality accident was caused with intention of disregarding regulation. It is important that we recognize the correct risk of criticality accident of nuclear fuel facility and prevent disasters. On the basis of them, we should establish safety culture. (S.Y.)

  6. Analyses of severe accident scenarios in RBMK-1500

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliatka, A.; Rimkevicius, S.; Uspuras, E.; Urbonavicius, E.

    2006-01-01

    Even though research of severe accidents in light water reactors is performed around the world for several decades many questions remain. Research is mostly performed for vessel-type reactors. RBMK is a channel type light water reactor, which differs from the vessel-type reactors in several aspects. These differences impose some specifics in the accident phenomena and processes that occur during severe accidents. Severe accident research for RBMK reactors is taking first steps and very little information is available in the open literature. The existing severe accident analysis codes are developed for vessel-type reactors and their application to the analysis of accidents in RBMK is not straightforward. This paper presents the results of an analysis of large loss-of-coolant accident scenarios with loss of coolant injection to the core of RBMK-1500. The analysis performed considers processes in the reactor core, in the reactor cooling system and in the confinement until the fuel melting started. This paper does not aim to answer all the questions regarding severe accidents in RBMK but rather to start a discussion, identify the expected timing of the key phenomena. (orig.)

  7. A multi-disciplinary assessment of operator action time for mitigating a postulated accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, C.D.; Fields, C.C.; Hightower, N.T. III; Buczek, J.A.; Jenkins, T.B.; Swanson, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses mitigation of the postulated Loss of Heat Sink Accident for the Savannah River Site K Reactor which requires operator action to place the plant in a water conservation configuration. In August 1991, concerns were raised about the allowances in the safety analyses for operator action times in an unpowered scenario, where several valves would be manually closed. WSRC management conservatively decided to include explicit consideration of a seismic initiator for this scenario, which introduced the additional concern that operator actions could be hindered by tritium from flange leakage. The revised analyses concluded that the powered case documented in the Safety Analysis Report is limiting and that all acceptance criteria are met

  8. Identification of NPP accidents using support vector classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In case of the accidents that happens in a nuclear power plants (NPPs), it is very important to identify its accidents for the operator. Therefore, in order to effectively manage the accidents, the initial short time trends of major parameters have to be observed and NPP accidents have to accurately be identified to provide its information to operators and technicians. In this regard, the objective of this study is to identify the accidents when the accidents happen in NPPs. In this study, we applied the support vector classification (SVC) model to classify the initiating events of critical accidents such as loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), total loss of feedwater (TLOFW), station blackout (SBO), and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). Input variables were used as the initial integral value of the signal measured in the reactor coolant system (RCS), steam generator, and containment vessel after reactor trip. The proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. In this study, the proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. We used an initial integral value of the simulated sensor signals to identify the NPP accidents. The training data was used to train the SVC model. And, the trained model was confirmed using the test data. As a result, it was known that it can accurately classify five events.

  9. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  10. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  11. Severe Accident Management System On-line Network SAMSON

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    SAMSON is a computational tool used by accident managers in the Technical Support Centers (TSC) and Emergency Operations Facilities (EOF) in the event of a nuclear power plant accident. SAMSON examines over 150 status points monitored by nuclear power plant process computers during a severe accident and makes predictions about when core damage, support plate failure, and reactor vessel failure will occur. These predictions are based on the current state of the plant assuming that all safety equipment not already operating will fail. SAMSON uses expert systems, as well as neural networks trained with the back propagation learning algorithms to make predictions. Training on data from an accident analysis code (MAAP - Modular Accident Analysis Program) allows SAMSON to associate different states in the plant with different times to critical failures. The accidents currently recognized by SAMSON include steam generator tube ruptures (SGTRs), with breaks ranging from one tube to eight tubes, and loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), with breaks ranging from 0.0014 square feet (1.30 cm 2 ) in size to breaks 3.0 square feet in size (2800 cm 2 ). (author)

  12. Accident assessment under emergency situation in Daya Bay nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling; Chen Degan; Lin Shumou; Fu Guohui

    2004-01-01

    The accident assessment under emergency situation includes the accident status evaluation and its consequence estimation. This paper introduces evaluation methods for accident status and its assistant computer system (SESAME-GNP) utilized during the emergency situation in Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) in detail. At the same time, an improved accident consequence estimation system in GNPS (RACAS-GNP) is briefly described. With the improvement of the accident assessment systems, the capability of emergency response in GNPS is strengthened

  13. ASSESSING ACCIDENT HOTSPOTS BY USING VOLUNTEERED GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golnoosh

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to the ever-increasing number of vehicles, transportation issues, especially transportation safety have gained great importance. One of the social problems in the world, and particularly in developing countries, which each year imposes great casualties, and economic, social and cultural costs on society, is traffic accidents. Traffic accidents cause waste of time and assets and loss of human resources in society, therefore studies and measures to reduce accidents and damage caused by them, particularly in recent decades, has become important. One of the suggested ways to deal with the problem of car accidents is the modeling of accident-prone points, as by identifying these points, factors affecting accidents can be identified, and elimination of these factors leads to a reduction in accidents. Numerous studies have been conducted in this respect, using official police data to identify these points and performing necessary analysis on them. Official data has gaps and shortcomings. Using Volunteered Geographic Information to determine accident-prone venues can be a suitable answer to the problems of using official data. The aim of this study is the use of volunteered geographic information in relation to the accidents and their causes. By taking into account factors affecting traffic accidents in the study area, and determining the importance of each factor, as well as the severity-of-accidents parameter, and using the Expert Choice software, a decision-making software based on the hierarchical analysis, high-risk venues are determined, and the accident-prone points of the study area are specified.

  14. Radiation accidents and defence of population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memmedov, A.M.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Development of nuclear physics, the fundamental and the applied researches in the field of radioactive insured wide possibility for application of radionuclides and ionizing radiation source in the different fields of national economy. Application of radionuclides in chemical, metallurgical, food industry, in agriculture and etc. Fields provide a large economic profit. It's hard to apprise significance of ionizing radiation source using in medicine for diagnostics and treatment of different disease. Nuclear power engineering and nuclear industry are developing intensively. At same time nuclear power, ionizing radiation sources incur potential treat for surroundings and health of population. As even that stage of protective measure development: there is no possibility of that happening of radiation accidents. A radiation accident qualifies as loss of ionizing radiation sources direction, which provoked by disrepair equipment, natural calamity or other causes which could bring to unplanned irradiation of population or radioactive pollution of surroundings. At present some following typical cases connected with radiation accident have been chosen: Contentious using or keeping of ionizing radiation source with breach of established requires; Loss, theft of ionizing radiation sources or radiation plants, instruments; Leaving the sources of ionizing radiation in the holes; Refusal radiation technic exploited in industry, medicine, SRI and etc; Disrepair in nuclear transport means of conveyance; Crashes and accidents at NPP and at other enterprises of nuclear industry. The radiation accidents according to character, degree and scales have been divided into two groups: Radiation accidents not connected with NPP; Accidents in the nuclear engineering and industry; The radiation accidents not connected with NPP according their consequence divide into 5 groups; accidents which do not come to irradiation of personal, persons from population (more PN-permissible norm

  15. Developing a knowledge base for the management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Jenkins, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    Prior to the accident at Three Mile Island, little attention was given to the development of procedures for the management of severe accidents, that is, accidents in which the reactor core is damaged. Since TMI, however, significant effort has been devoted to developing strategies for severe accident management. At the same time, the potential application of artificial intelligence techniques, particularly expert systems, to complex decision-making tasks such as accident diagnosis and response has received considerable attention. The need to develop strategies for accident management suggests that a computerized knowledge base such as used by an expert system could be developed to collect and organize knowledge for severe accident management. This paper suggests a general method which could be used to develop such a knowledge base, and how it could be used to enhance accident management capabilities

  16. Fuel behaviour in the case of severe accidents and potential ATF designs. Fuel Behavior in Severe Accidents and Potential Accident Tolerance Fuel Designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Bo

    2013-01-01

    This presentation reviews the conditions of fuel rods under severe loss of coolant conditions, approaches that may increase coping time for plant operators to recover, requirements of advanced fuel cladding to increase tolerance in accident conditions, potential candidate alloys for accident-tolerant fuel cladding and a novel design of molybdenum (Mo) -based fuel cladding. The current Zr-alloy fuel cladding will lose all its mechanical strength at 750-800 deg. C, and will react rapidly with high-pressure steam, producing significant hydrogen and exothermic heat at 700-1000 deg. C. The metallurgical properties of Zr make it unlikely that modifications of the Zr-alloy will improve the behaviour of Zr-alloys at temperatures relevant to severe accidents. The Mo-based fuel cladding is designed to (1) maintain fuel rod integrity, and reduce the release rate of hydrogen and exothermic heat in accident conditions at 1200-1500 deg. C. The EPRI research has thus far completed the design concepts, demonstration of feasibility of producing very thin wall (0.2 mm) Mo tubes. The feasibility of depositing a protective coating using various techniques has also been demonstrated. Demonstration of forming composite Mo-based cladding via mechanical reduction has been planned

  17. FACTORS AFFECTING ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BENGHAZI, LIBYA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ghaweel, Ibrahim; Mursi, Saleh A.; Jack, Joel P.; Joel, Irene

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the factors responsible for road traffic accidents in Benghazi. Material and Methods: Retrospective and descriptive studies were done in the years 2006-2007. The data was collected from Traffic and License Department, Benghazi. The data were analyzed, based on fatalities, the severely handicapped, hit and run victims and were correlated with age, sex, time, environmental factors, type of roads, etc. Results: One-Thousand-Two-Hundred-Sixty-Five accidents occurred between the years 2006-2007 within the Benghazi city limits; 11.14% of the injuries were fatal; 67.35% of the victims had severe injuries and 21.51% escaped with minor injuries. Table 1 shows that 73.04% lost their lives within the city limits, 13.47% on the fly-over, and 2.12% on minor roads connected to main roads within the city limits. The mean of the accidents and its standard deviation were 16.66± 25.67 with a variance of fatality of 1.54. Conclusion: It is concluded from the studies that major road traffic accidents occur because of environmental stress factors. In addition, fatalities and the seriousness of the accidents depend on a number of factors such as the age of the vehicle, safety measures, human error and time and place of accident. PMID:23012183

  18. Prevention of pedestrian accidents.

    OpenAIRE

    Kendrick, D

    1993-01-01

    Child pedestrian accidents are the most common road traffic accident resulting in injury. Much of the existing work on road traffic accidents is based on analysing clusters of accidents despite evidence that child pedestrian accidents tend to be more dispersed than this. This paper analyses pedestrian accidents in 573 children aged 0-11 years by a locally derived deprivation score for the years 1988-90. The analysis shows a significantly higher accident rate in deprived areas and a dose respo...

  19. The M1 form of tumor-associated macrophages in non-small cell lung cancer is positively associated with survival time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Junliang; Liu, Lunxu; Che, Guowei; Yu, Nanbin; Dai, Fuqiang; You, Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function) and M2 (with pro-tumor function) forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group) and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages) and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm 2 ) in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm 2 ) and stroma (approximately 34/mm 2 ) of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm 2 ) and stroma (13/mm 2 ) of the short survival group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively). The M2 macrophage densities were not associated with patient's survival time. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma

  20. Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  1. Accident Locations, MDTA Accidents, Accidents on MDTA locations, Accidents on I 95, US 50, I 695, Accident on John F Kennedy Highway, Nice Bridge, Bay Bridge locations, Published in 2011, 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, Maryland Transportation Authority.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — Accident Locations dataset current as of 2011. MDTA Accidents, Accidents on MDTA locations, Accidents on I 95, US 50, I 695, Accident on John F Kennedy Highway, Nice...

  2. Chemical considerations in severe accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinauskas, A.P.; Kress, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study presented the first systematic attempt to include fission product physicochemical effects in the determination of expected consequences of hypothetical nuclear reactor power plant accidents. At the time, however, the data base was sparse, and the treatment of fission product behavior was not entirely consistent or accurate. Considerable research has since been performed to identify and understand chemical phenomena that can occur in the course of a nuclear reactor accident, and how these phenomena affect fission product behavior. In this report, the current status of our understanding of the chemistry of fission products in severe core damage accidents is summarized and contrasted with that of the Reactor Safety Study

  3. Ambulance traffic accidents in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Po-Wei; Lin, Chih-Hao; Wu, Chen-Long; Fang, Pin-Hui; Lu, Chien-Hsin; Hsu, Hsiang-Chin; Chi, Chih-Hsien

    2018-04-01

    Ambulance traffic accidents (ATAs) are the leading cause of occupation-related fatalities among emergency medical service (EMS) personnel. We aim to use the Taiwan national surveillance system to analyze the characteristics of ATAs and to assist EMS directors in developing policies governing ambulance operations. A retrospective, cross-sectional and largely descriptive study was conducted using Taiwan national traffic accidents surveillance data from January 1, 2011 to October 31, 2016. Among the 1,627,217 traffic accidents during the study period, 715 ATAs caused 8 deaths within 24 h and 1844 injured patients. On average, there was one ATA for every 8598 ambulance runs. Compared to overall traffic accidents, ATAs were 1.7 times more likely to result in death and 1.9 times more likely to have injured patients. Among the 715 ATAs, 8 (1.1%) ATAs were fatal and 707 (98.9%) were nonfatal. All 8 fatalities were associated with motorcycles. The urban areas were significantly higher than the rural areas in the annual number of ATAs (14.2 ± 7.3 [7.0-26.7] versus 3.1 ± 1.9 [0.5-8.4], p = 0.013), the number of ATA-associated fatalities per year (0.2 ± 0.2 [0.0-0.7] versus 0.1 ± 0.1 [0.0-0.2], p = 0.022), and the annual number of injured patients (who needed urgent hospital visits) in ATAs (19.4 ± 7.3 [10.5-30.9] versus 5.2 ± 3.8 [0.9-15.3], p traffic accident reporting system should be built to provide EMS policy guidance for ATA reduction and outcome improvements. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. Results On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. Conclusions We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups. PMID:22723912

  5. Accident dynamics of LR-0 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorisek, M.; Tinka, I.

    1981-01-01

    The results are given of calculating the accident dynamics of the LR-0 light water experimental zero power reactor. Calculations of the time dependence of power, the total released energy, the temperature of fuel and its cladding were made using program FATRAP for different values of the total inserted reactivity. Using the results, an analysis is made of hypothetic accident states of the LR-0 reactor. The results are shown graphically. (J.B.)

  6. Analysis of heavy radiological accidents in NPP and gamma-irradiators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelov, V [Civil Defence Administration, Sofia (Bulgaria); Semova, T; Bonchev, Ts [Sofia Univ. (Bulgaria). Fizicheski Fakultet

    1996-12-31

    A review of several heavy radiological accidents, their cause, character, radioactivity emission, victims and economical impact is presented in the form of uniform tables. Eleven cases of incidents in power plants and 4 cases of accidents involving powerful gamma irradiators are considered. Radiological accidents in Bulgaria, not connected with the Kozloduy NPP, are listed. The human factor has been identified as the main cause for most of the accidents. It is stressed that the probability of heavy accident increases at the time of reactor refuelling, repair or testing. Technical failures could be eliminated by improved check and diagnostics procedures. 2 tabs., 12 refs.

  7. Analysis of heavy radiological accidents in NPP and gamma-irradiators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelov, V.; Semova, T.; Bonchev, Ts.

    1995-01-01

    A review of several heavy radiological accidents, their cause, character, radioactivity emission, victims and economical impact is presented in the form of uniform tables. Eleven cases of incidents in power plants and 4 cases of accidents involving powerful gamma irradiators are considered. Radiological accidents in Bulgaria, not connected with the Kozloduy NPP, are listed. The human factor has been identified as the main cause for most of the accidents. It is stressed that the probability of heavy accident increases at the time of reactor refuelling, repair or testing. Technical failures could be eliminated by improved check and diagnostics procedures. 2 tabs., 12 refs

  8. Severe accident source term reassessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazzan, M.J.; Gardner, R.; Warman, E.A.; Jacobs, S.B.

    1987-01-01

    This paper summarizes the status of the reassessment of severe reactor accident source terms, which are defined as the quantity, type, and timing of fission product releases from such accidents. Concentration is on the major results and conclusions of analyses with modern methods for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs), and the special case of containment bypass. Some distinctions are drawn between analyses for PWRs and BWRs. In general, the more the matter is examined, the consequences, or probability of serious consequences, seem to be less. (author)

  9. Consequence analysis of core damage states following severe accidents for the CANDU reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahba, N.N.; Kim, Y.T.; Lie, S.G.

    1997-01-01

    The analytical methodology used to evaluate severe accident sequences is described. The relevant thermal-mechanical phenomena and the mathematical approach used in calculating the timing of the accident progression and source term estimate are summarized. The postulated sever accidents analyzed, in general, mainly differ in the timing to reach and progress through each defined c ore damage state . This paper presents the methodology and results of the timing and steam discharge calculations as well as source term estimate out of containment for accident sequences classified as potentially leading to core disassembly following a small break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario as a specific example. (author)

  10. Role of BWR secondary containments in severe accident mitigation: issues and insights from recent analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, S.R.

    1988-01-01

    All commercial boiling water reactor (BWR) plants in the US employ primary containments of the pressure suppression design. These primary containments are surrounded and enclosed by a secondary containment consisting of a reactor building and refueling bay (MK I and MK II designs), a shield building, auxiliary building and fuel building (MK III), or an auxiliary building and enclosure building (Grand Gulf style MK III). Although secondary containment designs are highly plant specific, their purpose is to minimize the ground level release of radioactive material for a spectrum of traditional design basis accidents. While not designed for severe accident mitigation, these secondary containments might also reduce the radiological consequences of severe accidents. This issue is receiving increasing attention due to concerns that BWR MK I primary containment integrity would be lost should a significant mass of molten debris escape the reactor vessel during a severe accident. This paper presents a brief overview of domestic BWR secondary containment designs and highlights plant-specific features that could influence secondary containment severe accident survivability and accident mitigation effectiveness. Current issues surrounding secondary containment performance are discussed, and insights gained from recent ORNL secondary containment studies of Browns Ferry, Peach Bottom, and Shoreham are presented. Areas of significant uncertainty are identified and recommendations for future research are presented

  11. Effect of 153Sm-EDTMP on survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Wei; Zheng Zongyuan; Xu Guangpu

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect on survival of Samarium-153-ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphonate (153Sm-EDTMP) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and multiple bone metastases. Methods: From 1993 to 1999, 160 patients (127 men, 33 women; median age 35 years) presented with NPC and multiple bone metastases. Of these, 40 patients had undergone chemotherapy, and 72 palliative radiotherapy. Patients were randomly divided into four groups: Group 1 (N = 20) received analgesics (control); Groups 2, 3 and 4 (N = 80, 40, and 20, respectively) received one, two or three courses, respectively, of 153Sm-EDTMP (77.7 MBq/kg/course; course interval, 4 wk). Results: Eight patients died of non-cancer-related causes, and 24 were lost to follow-up. The median survival time for Group 1 (7.8 months) was significantly less (p < 0.05) than that of Groups 2, 3 and 4 (11.6, 13.4 and 12.8 months, respectively). Patients given 153Sm-EDTMP who had had revious external radiation survived longer (p < 0.05) than those in the other treatment groups. Conclusions: Internal radiotherapy with 153Sm-EDTMP can extend survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases; when combined with external radiotherapy in appropriate patients, its effect on survival time is enhanced.. (authors)

  12. Truck accident involving unirradiated nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, R.W.; Fischer, L.E.

    1992-07-01

    In the early morning of Dec. 16, 1991, a severe accident occurred when a passenger vehicle traveling in the wrong direction collided with a tractor trailer carrying 24 nuclear fuel assemblies in 12 containers on Interstate 1-91 in Springfield, Massachusetts. This paper documents the mechanical circumstances of the accident and the physical environment to which the containers were exposed and the response of the containers and their contents. The accident involved four impacts where the truck was struck by the car, impacted on the center guardrail, impacted on the outer concrete barrier and came to rest against the center guardrail. The impacts were followed by a fire that began in the engine compartment, spread to the.tractor and cab, and eventually spread to the trailer and payload. The fire lasted for about three hours and the packages were involved in the fire for about two hours. As a result of the fire, the tractor-trailer was completely destroyed and the packages were exposed to flames with temperatures between 1300 degrees F and 1800 degrees F. The fuel assemblies remained intact during the accident and there was no release of any radioactive material during the accident. This was a very severe accident; however, the injuries were minor and at no time was the public health and safety at risk

  13. Truck accident involving unirradiated nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, R.W.; Fischer, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    In the early morning of Dec. 16, 1991, a severe accident occurred when a passenger vehicle traveling in the wrong direction collided with a tractor trailer carrying 24 unirradiated nuclear fuel assemblies in 12 containers on Interstate I-91 in Springfield, Massachusetts. This paper documents the mechanical circumstances of the accident and assesses the physical environment to which the containers were exposed and the response of the containers and their contents. The accident involved four impacts where the truck was struck by the car, impacted on the center guardrail, impacted on the outer concrete barrier and came to rest against the center guardrail. The impacts were followed by a fire that began in the engine compartment, spread to the tractor and cab, and eventually spread to the trailer and payload. The fire lasted for about three hours and the packages were involved in the fire for about two hours. As a result of the fire, the tractor-trailer was completely destroyed and the packages were exposed to flames with temperatures between 1,300 F and 1,800 F. The fuel assemblies remained intact during the accident and there was no release of any radioactive material during the accident. This was a very severe accident; however, the injuries were minor and at no time was the public health and safety at risk

  14. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  15. Prognosis in Acute Cerebrovascular Accidents in Relation to Respiratory Pattern and Blood—gas Tensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rout, M. W.; Lane, D. J.; Wollner, L.

    1971-01-01

    Respiratory pattern and arterial blood gas tensions were assessed in patients with acute cerebrovascular accidents. Hyperventilation, low Pco2, and high arterial pH were associated with a poor prognosis, whereas patients with normal respiratory pattern and blood gas tensions survived. Periodic and Cheyne-Stokes breathing carried an intermediate prognosis. PMID:5091916

  16. Framing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: An international, comparative study of news frames in Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannakopoulos, Thanos

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated into the news frames employed in reporting on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, explored the maintenance of the radiation reporting standard, and assessed the overall tone for the local government, the Japanese Government, and the IAEA. Based on content from Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times (n=60), it was found that media evoked 'conflict', 'responsibility attribution', and 'human interest' frames, radiation reporting standard was marginally maintained, and the overall tone was neutral (local government, IAEA) or negative (Japanese Government). Variances across countries were observed, but results coincided with the country's nuclear energy policy. (author)

  17. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  18. Joint research project WASA-BOSS: Further development and application of severe accident codes. Assessment and optimization of accident management measures. Project B: Accident analyses for pressurized water reactors with the application of the ATHLET-CD code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Wilhelm, Polina

    2017-02-01

    Within the framework of the project an ATHLET-CD input deck for a generic German PWR of type KONVOI has been created. This input deck was applied to the simulation of severe accidents from the accident categories station blackout (SBO) and small-break loss-of-coolant accidents (SBLOCA). The complete accident transient from initial event at full power until the damage of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is covered and all relevant severe accident phenomena are modelled: start of core heat up, fission product release, melting of fuel and absorber material, oxidation and release of hydrogen, relocation of molten material inside the core, relocation to the lower plenum, damage and failure of the RPV. The model has been applied to the analysis of preventive and mitigative accident management measures for SBO and SBLOCA transients. Therefore, the measures primary side depressurization (PSD), injection to the primary circuit by mobile pumps and for SBLOCA the delayed injection by the cold leg hydro-accumulators have been investigated and the assumptions and start criteria of these measures have been varied. The time evolutions of the transients and time margins for the initiation of additional measures have been assessed. An uncertainty and sensitivity study has been performed for the early phase of one SBO scenario with PSD (until the start of core melt). In addition to that, a code -to-code comparison between ATHLET-CD and the severe accident code MELCOR has been carried out.

  19. Use of PSA and severe accident assessment results for the accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, S. H.; Kim, H. G.; Jang, H. S.; Moon, S. K.; Park, J. U.

    1993-12-01

    The objectives for this study are to investigate the basic principle or methodology which is applicable to accident management, by using the results of PSA and severe accident research, and also facilitate the preparation of accidents management program in the future. This study was performed as follows: derivation of measures for core damage prevention, derivation of measures for accident mitigation, application of computerized tool to assess severe accident management

  20. Use of PSA and severe accident assessment results for the accident management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, S H; Kim, H G; Jang, H S; Moon, S K; Park, J U [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    1993-12-15

    The objectives for this study are to investigate the basic principle or methodology which is applicable to accident management, by using the results of PSA and severe accident research, and also facilitate the preparation of accidents management program in the future. This study was performed as follows: derivation of measures for core damage prevention, derivation of measures for accident mitigation, application of computerized tool to assess severe accident management.

  1. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-09-01

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked separately

  2. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  3. Radiological Consequence Analyses Following a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In order to reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a simulator which is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator) for overseas nuclear accident has been developed. It is composed of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. For the source-term estimation module, the representative reactor types were selected as CPR1000, BWR5 and BWR6 for China, Japan and Taiwan, respectively. Considering the design characteristics of each reactor type, the source-term estimation module simulates the transient of design basis accident and severe accident. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials and prints out the air and ground concentration. Using the concentration result, the dose assessment module calculates effective dose and thyroid dose in the Korean Peninsula region. In this study, a hypothetical severe accident in Japan was simulated to demonstrate the function of NANAS. As a result, the radiological consequence to Korea was estimated from the accident. PC-based nuclear accident simulator, NANAS, has been developed. NANAS contains three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. The source-term estimation module simulates a nuclear accident for the representative reactor types in China, Japan and Taiwan. Since the maximum calculation speed is 16 times than real time, it is possible to estimate the source-term release swiftly in case of the emergency. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials in wide range including the Northeast Asia. Final results of the dose assessment module are a map projection and time chart of effective dose and thyroid dose. A hypothetical accident in Japan was simulated by NANAS. The radioactive materials were released during the first 24 hours and the source

  4. Special LOFT features for improved monitoring and survival of LOCA transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodrich, L.D.; Leach, L.P.; Klingler, T.B.; Morrow, J.C.; Phoenix, W.C.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Sumpter, K.C.; Rouhani, S.Z.; Welland, H.J.

    1980-01-01

    LOFT is designed to monitor and survive Loss-Of-Coolant-Accidents (LOCAs). This report presents the primary design difference from LPWRs that were required to accomplish this. These design differences may be of interest to the nuclear power generator industry. This report should be revised semi-annually or as developments in the LOFT Program require

  5. [Accidents and injuries at work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standke, W

    2014-06-01

    In the case of an accident at work, the person concerned is insured by law according to the guidelines of the Sozialgesetzbuch VII as far as the injuries have been caused by this accident. The most important source of information on the incident in question is the accident report that has to be sent to the responsible institution for statutory accident insurance and prevention by the employer, if the accident of the injured person is fatal or leads to an incapacity to work for more than 3 days (= reportable accident). Data concerning accidents like these are sent to the Deutsche Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung (DGUV) as part of a random sample survey by the institutions for statutory accident insurance and prevention and are analyzed statistically. Thus the key issues of accidents can be established and used for effective prevention. Although the success of effective accident prevention is undisputed, there were still 919,025 occupational accidents in 2011, with clear gender-related differences. Most occupational accidents involve the upper and lower extremities. Accidents are analyzed comprehensively and the results are published and made available to all interested parties in an effort to improve public awareness of possible accidents. Apart from reportable accidents, data on the new occupational accident pensions are also gathered and analyzed statistically. Thus, additional information is gained on accidents with extremely serious consequences and partly permanent injuries for the accident victims.

  6. Severe accident analysis methodology in support of accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boesmans, B.; Auglaire, M.; Snoeck, J.

    1997-01-01

    The author addresses the implementation at BELGATOM of a generic severe accident analysis methodology, which is intended to support strategic decisions and to provide quantitative information in support of severe accident management. The analysis methodology is based on a combination of severe accident code calculations, generic phenomenological information (experimental evidence from various test facilities regarding issues beyond present code capabilities) and detailed plant-specific technical information

  7. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures after hip fracture. Therefore, all

  8. Aging, condition monitoring, and loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) tests of class 1E electrical cables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobus, M.J.

    1992-11-01

    This report describes the results of aging, condition monitoring, and accident testing of miscellaneous cable types. Three sets of cables were aged for up to 9 months under simultaneous thermal (≅100 degrees C) and radiation (≅0.10 kGy/hr) conditions. A sequential accident consisting of high dose rate irradiation (≅6 kGy/hr) and high temperature steam followed the aging. Also exposed to the accident conditions was a fourth set of cables, which were unaged. The test results indicate that, properly installed, most of the various miscellaneous cable products tested should be able to survive an accident after 60 years for total aging doses of at least 150 kGy or higher (depending on the material) and for moderate ambient temperatures on the order of 45--55 degrees C (potentially higher or lower, depending on material specific activtion energies and total radiation doses). Mechanical measurements (primarily elongation, modulus, and density) were more effective than electrical measurements for monitoring age-related degradation

  9. Thermal Hydraulic design parameters study for severe accidents using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Chang Hyun; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Chang, Keun Sun [Sunmoon University, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    To provide the information on severe accident progression is very important for advanced or new type of nuclear power plant (NPP) design. A parametric study, therefore, was performed to investigate the effect of thermal hydraulic design parameters on severe accident progression of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Nine parameters, which are considered important in NPP design or severe accident progression, were selected among the various thermal hydraulic design parameters. The backpropagation neural network (BPN) was used to determine parameters, which might more strongly affect the severe accident progression, among nine parameters. For training, different input patterns were generated by the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and then different target patterns that contain core uncovery time and vessel failure time were obtained for Young Gwang Nuclear (YGN) Units 3 and 4 using modular accident analysis program (MAAP) 3.0B code. Three different severe accident scenarios, such as two loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO), were considered in this analysis. Results indicated that design parameters related to refueling water storage tank (RWST), accumulator and steam generator (S/G) have more dominant effects on the progression of severe accidents investigated, compared to the other six parameters. 9 refs., 5 tabs. (Author)

  10. Thermal Hydraulic design parameters study for severe accidents using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Chang Hyun; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Chang, Keun Sun [Sunmoon University, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    To provide the information on severe accident progression is very important for advanced or new type of nuclear power plant (NPP) design. A parametric study, therefore, was performed to investigate the effect of thermal hydraulic design parameters on severe accident progression of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Nine parameters, which are considered important in NPP design or severe accident progression, were selected among the various thermal hydraulic design parameters. The backpropagation neural network (BPN) was used to determine parameters, which might more strongly affect the severe accident progression, among nine parameters. For training, different input patterns were generated by the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and then different target patterns that contain core uncovery time and vessel failure time were obtained for Young Gwang Nuclear (YGN) Units 3 and 4 using modular accident analysis program (MAAP) 3.0B code. Three different severe accident scenarios, such as two loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO), were considered in this analysis. Results indicated that design parameters related to refueling water storage tank (RWST), accumulator and steam generator (S/G) have more dominant effects on the progression of severe accidents investigated, compared to the other six parameters. 9 refs., 5 tabs. (Author)

  11. Emergency Response to Radioactive Material Transport Accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EL-shinawy, R.M.K.

    2009-01-01

    Although transport regulations issued by IAEA is providing a high degree of safety during transport opertions,transport accidents involving packages containing radioactive material have occurred and will occur at any time. Whenever a transport accident involving radioactive material accurs, and many will pose no radiation safety problems, emergency respnose actioms are meeded to ensure that radiation safety is maintained. In case of transport accident that result in a significant relesae of radioactive material , loss of shielding or loss of criticality control , that consequences should be controlled or mitigated by proper emergency response actions safety guide, Emergency Response Plamming and Prepardness for transport accidents involving radioactive material, was published by IAEA. This guide reflected all requirememts of IAEA, regulations for safe transport of radioactive material this guide provide guidance to the publicauthorites and other interested organziation who are responsible for establishing such emergency arrangements

  12. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  13. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report

  14. Biomass accident investigations – missed opportunities for learning and accident prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedlund, Frank Huess

    2017-01-01

    The past decade has seen a major increase in the production of energy from biomass. The growth has been mirrored in an increase of serious biomass related accidents involving fires, gas explosions, combustible dust explosions and the release of toxic gasses. There are indications that the number...... of bioenergy related accidents is growing faster than the energy production. This paper argues that biomass accidents, if properly investigated and lessons shared widely, provide ample opportunities for improving general hazard awareness and safety performance of the biomass industry. The paper examines...... selected serious accidents involving biogas and wood pellets in Denmark and argues that such opportunities for learning were missed because accident investigations were superficial, follow-up incomplete and information sharing absent. In one particularly distressing case, a facility saw a repeat accident...

  15. Regulatory research of the PWR severe accident information needs and instrumentation availability for hydrogen control and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Park, Gun-Chul; Suh, Kune Y.; Kang, Yun-Moon; Lee, Un-Jang; Oh, Se-Chul; Lee, Jin-Yong [Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    During the current research period, we have set forth the methodology for identification of a severe accident, developed a framework for hydrogen management decision trees, and analyzed the literature on hydrogen management and experimental data for hydrogen bum. Specifically, we have summarized me results for information needs in a severe accident obtained in the U.S. and other countries, and applied the methodology to the reference plant YGN 3 and 4 as part of severe accident management. We have also examined the existing instruments in terms of their availability and survivability during a severe accident, and identified additionally needed information needs and instruments. We have identified dominant accident sequences for me reference plant YGN 3 and 4 to construct decision trees, and extracted available data from the IPE study of the plant. Based upon the data we have performed preliminary study on the decision tree and decision node. Last, we have examined various mechanisms for hydrogen generation and reIevant experimental data to predict me amount of hydrogen generation and governing factors in me process. We have also reviewed the hydrogen generation related models in the severe accident analysis.

  16. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bie

    Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

  18. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. It's Deja Vu All over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willett, John B.; Singer, Judith D.

    1995-01-01

    The multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis method is introduced and illustrated using longitudinal data on exit from and reentry into the teaching profession. The method is applicable to many educational problems involving the sequential occurrence of disparate events or episodes. (SLD)

  1. Radiological study of cerebro-vascular accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Misri, H.T.; Kabawe, Bassam

    1991-01-01

    The role of computerized tomography scanner in studying the cerebro-vascular accidents has been discussed. One hundred fifty patients with cerebro-vascular accidents were studied at Aleppo University Hospital between 1989-1990. Clinical history and physical examination were recorded, as well as, computerized tomography scanning in all cases without using the contrast media mostly. Relationship between the density of the lesion (inforctionor hemorrhage) and the time has been found. This relationship can help in forensic medicine. (author). 29 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  2. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of

  3. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  4. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Movahhed

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration.

  5. Heath Effects Sequence of Meet Halfa Radiological Accident After Twelve Years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shabon, M.H.

    2013-01-01

    The accident of Meet-Halfa developed consequent upon the loss of an industrial gamma radiography source. The source was found by a farmer resident of Meet-Halfa who took it to his house occupied by his family. The sequence of events developed over a period of seven weeks from the time the source was found on May 5, 2000, till the day of its retrieval from the house by the national authorities on June 26. The protracted exposure patterns of the family members during the period of source possession are not precisely known, however these exposures resulted in two fatalities, clinical forms of bone marrow depression, and several skin burns of different severities. The recent sequences of the accident is as follows:-The three survived siblings married and get good children. That mean there is no hereditary stochastic effects. The sister died at 2007 with 72 years old with senility and no specific disease. The youngest daughter amputate the left thumb and index fingers at 2001. The elder son amputate the terminal phalanx of the right thumb at 2009. The youngest daughter amputate the right index finger at 2009. The elder son graft the burn at the lower right quadrant of the abdomen for more than 20 times (3 of them were in the Mansheat Al-Bakry Millitary Hospital), but there is residual of burn untill now. Sever abdominal hernia in the elder son due to necroses in the right quadrant abdominal muscles. Grafting for these muscles occur but failed.

  6. A study on the development of framework and supporting tools for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Hyun Sop

    1996-02-01

    using containment event trees and associated resources, which are resulted from probabilistic safety assessment. Complementary method is provided using safety objective trees. Simulation results shows that this supporting system provides appropriate and timely strategies and associated information as intended. Spatiotemporal neural network is introduced to predict the occurrence timing for essential events for severe accident management. Application predicting the timing for reactor pressure vessel failure shows that the failure timings are within tolerable errors

  7. Survival with Three-Times Weekly In-Center Nocturnal Versus Conventional Hemodialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianglin; Suri, Rita S.; Nesrallah, Gihad; Lindsay, Robert; Garg, Amit X.; Lester, Keith; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2012-01-01

    Whether the duration of hemodialysis treatments improves outcomes remains controversial. Here, we evaluated survival and clinical changes associated with converting from conventional hemodialysis (mean=3.75 h/treatment) to in-center nocturnal hemodialysis (mean=7.85 h/treatment). All 959 consecutive patients who initiated nocturnal hemodialysis for the first time in 77 Fresenius Medical Care facilities during 2006 and 2007 were eligible. We used Cox models to compare risk for mortality during 2 years of follow-up in a 1:3 propensity score–matched cohort of 746 nocturnal and 2062 control patients on conventional hemodialysis. Two-year mortality was 19% among nocturnal hemodialysis patients compared with 27% among conventional patients. Nocturnal hemodialysis associated with a 25% reduction in the risk for death after adjustment for age, body mass index, and dialysis vintage (hazard ratio=0.75, 95% confidence interval=0.61–0.91, P=0.004). With respect to clinical features, interdialytic weight gain, albumin, hemoglobin, dialysis dose, and calcium increased on nocturnal therapy, whereas postdialysis weight, predialysis systolic blood pressure, ultrafiltration rate, phosphorus, and white blood cell count declined (all P<0.001). In summary, notwithstanding the possibility of residual selection bias, conversion to treatment with nocturnal hemodialysis associates with favorable clinical features, laboratory biomarkers, and improved survival compared with propensity score–matched controls. The potential impact of extended treatment time on clinical outcomes while maintaining a three times per week hemodialysis schedule requires evaluation in future clinical trials. PMID:22362905

  8. Biologically-equivalent dose and long-term survival time in radiation treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaider, Marco; Hanin, Leonid

    2007-01-01

    Within the linear-quadratic model the biologically-effective dose (BED)-taken to represent treatments with an equal tumor control probability (TCP)-is commonly (and plausibly) calculated according to BED(D) = -log[S(D)]/α. We ask whether in the presence of cellular proliferation this claim is justified and examine, as a related question, the extent to which BED approximates an isoeffective dose (IED) defined, more sensibly, in terms of an equal long-term survival probability, rather than TCP. We derive, under the assumption that cellular birth and death rates are time homogeneous, exact equations for the isoeffective dose, IED. As well, we give a rigorous definition of effective long-term survival time, T eff . By using several sets of radiobiological parameters, we illustrate potential differences between BED and IED on the one hand and, on the other, between T eff calculated as suggested here or by an earlier recipe. In summary: (a) the equations currently in use for calculating the effective treatment time may underestimate the isoeffective dose and should be avoided. The same is the case for the tumor control probability (TCP), only more so; (b) for permanent implants BED may be a poor substitute for IED; (c) for a fractionated treatment schedule, interpreting the observed probability of cure in terms of a TCP formalism that refers to the end of the treatment (rather than T eff ) may result in a miscalculation (underestimation) of the initial number of clonogens

  9. Radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beiriger, J.M.; Failor, R.A.; Marsh, K.V.; Shaw, G.E.

    1987-08-01

    This report describes the detection of fallout in the United States from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. As part of its environmental surveillance program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory maintained detectors for gamma-emitting radionuclides. Following the reactor accident, additional air filters were set out. Several uncommon isotopes were detected at the time the plume passed into the US

  10. Survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badwe, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

  11. The causing model of accidents and preventing system of small mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, S.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y. [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2008-06-15

    From an analysis of data on fatal accidents in small coal mines in a southern region of China over a period of three years, the time and type of accidents was discussed by applying statistical methods. It is shown that accidents frequently occur at the end of spring and all through summer. Roof accidents and gas disasters constitute severe accidents and traffic accidents are also important. It was found that most accidents are caused by dangerous behaviour of personnel and the unsafe state of equipment combined with economic interest. The three-factor causing model (TFC model) was proposed. Unsafe behaviour is a direct cause influenced by staff and workers while the unsafe nature of equipment is an indirect cause of accidents influence by natural conditions and the level of technical equipment in the mines. A system of accident prevention in small coal collieries was established with the TFC model. In this, scientific management is an important factor. 13 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. MELCOR Severe Accident Analysis on the SMART Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Jin, Young Ho; Kim, Young In; Kim, Keung Koo; Wang, Ziao; Revankar, Shripad

    2014-01-01

    A severe accident is analyzed for Korea SMR reactor, SMART. Core melt down sequences are analyzed for SMART reactor core using MELCOR version 1.8.5. MELCOR is developed by Sandia National Laboratory for US NRC for the simulation of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. Two cases are simulated here and compared between them; one is the case for core having 3 concentric rings and the other is the case for core having 5 concentric rings. One inch break LOCA scenario is simulated and compared between these two core models. Time sequences for the thermal hydraulic behaviors of RPV and thermal heatup behaviors of reactor core are explained in graphically. Thermal hydraulic behavior such as the change of pressure, level, mass, and temperature of RPV is explained. Thermal heatup behavior of reactor core such as oxidation of cladding, hydrogen generation, core slumping down to lower plenum, and finally creep rupture of PRV lower head is explained. Engineered safety features such as safety injection systems (SIS), and Passive residual heat removal systems (PHRS), etc. are assumed to be not working. One inch break of severe accident is simulated on Korean SMR (SMART) Integral PWR with MELCOR code version 1.8.5. Core melt progression and lower head failure time is very slow compared to other commercial reactors. Simulation on 3 and 5 radial rings core models gives very similar pattern in core cell failure timings. Other various accident scenarios (for example, SBO in Fukushima) will be tried further. Containment behaviors and source term behaviors in severe accident conditions will be analyzed in future

  13. Specific features of RBMK severe accidents progression and approach to the accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilevskij, V.P.; Nikitin, Yu.M.; Petrov, A.A.; Potapov, A.A.; Cherkashov, Yu.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fundamental construction features of the LWGR facilities (absence of common external containment shell, disintegrated circulation circuit and multichannel reactor core, positive vapor reactivity coefficient, high mass of thermally capacious graphite moderator) predetermining development of assumed heavy non-projected accidents and handling them are treated. Rating the categories of the reactor core damages for non-projected accidents and accident types producing specific grope of damages is given. Passing standard non-projected accidents, possible methods of attack accident consequences, as well as methods of calculated analysis of non-projected accidents are demonstrated [ru

  14. Genital endometriosis rate dynamics before and after Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shbul', I.; Suprun, L.Ya.

    2000-01-01

    The necessity of endometriosis dynamics evaluation is caused by worse ecological situation on the area of Belarus. Genital endometriosis frequency was studied considering the outcomes of surgeries fulfilled in hospitals of Gomel, Mogilev and Vitebsk in 1981-1995. At this time 1254 women underwent an operation and 19% of patients (235 persons) were operated before the Chernobyl accident. In the first 5 years after the accident endometriosis frequency increased nearly 2 times. The next 5 years (1991-1995) the number of operated patients was 565, i.e. 45% from the whole number. Uterus was extirpated or amputated in 898 patients, ovaries at both sides were removed in 36 ones. As the analysis showed the endometriosis frequency grew in 2,5 times for last 15 years, the most significant increase of this pathology was observed during the first five years after the accident

  15. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  16. Containment pressure monitoring method after severe accident in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Chuanjie; Zhang Shishui

    2011-01-01

    The containment atmosphere monitoring system in nuclear power plant was designed on the basis of design accident. But containment pressure will increase greatly in a severe accident, and pressure instrument in the containment can't satisfy the monitoring requirement. A new method to monitor the pressure change in the containment after a severe accident was considered, through which accident soften methods can be adopted. Under present technical condition, adding a pressure monitoring channel out of containment for post-severe accident is a considerable method. Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant implemented this modification, by which the containment release time can be delayed during severe accident, and nuclear safety can be increased. After analysis, this method is safe and feasible. (authors)

  17. SEVERE ACCIDENT ISSUES RAISED BY THE FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT AND IMPROVEMENTS SUGGESTED

    OpenAIRE

    SONG, JIN HO; KIM, TAE WOON

    2014-01-01

    This paper revisits the Fukushima accident to draw lessons in the aspect of nuclear safety considering the fact that the Fukushima accident resulted in core damage for three nuclear power plants simultaneously and that there is a high possibility of a failure of the integrity of reactor vessel and primary containment vessel. A brief review on the accident progression at Fukushima nuclear power plants is discussed to highlight the nature and characteristic of the event. As the severe accide...

  18. Nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  19. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  20. Traffic crash accidents in Tehran, Iran: Its relation with circadian rhythm of sleepiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh; Moradinia, Mohsen; Aminian, Omid; Esmaili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of main problems in Iran. Multiple factors cause traffic accidents and the most important one is sleepiness. This factor, however, is given less attention in our country. Road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness are studied. In this cross-sectional study, all road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness, which were reported by police, were studied in Tehran province in 2009. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was increased by more than sevenfold (odds ratio = 7.33) in low alertness hours (0:00-6:00) compared to other time of day. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was decreased by 0.15-fold (odds ratio = 0.15) in hours with maximum of alertness (18:00-22:00) of circadian rhythm compared to other time of day. The occurrence of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness has significant statistical relations with driving during lowest point of alertness of circadian rhythm.

  1. Some Examples of Accident Analyses for RB Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesic, M.

    2002-01-01

    The RB reactor is heavy water critical assembly operated in the Vinca Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Yugoslavia, since April 1959. The first Safety Analysis Report of the RB critical assembly was prepared in 1961/62. But, the first accidental analysis was done in late 1958 in aim the examine power transient and total equivalent doses received by the staff during the reactivity accident occurred on October 15, 1958. Since 1960, the RB reactor is modified few times. Beside initial natural uranium metal fuel rods, new fuel (TVR-S types) from 2% enriched metal uranium and 80% enriched UO 2 were available since 1962 and 1976, respectively. Also, modifications in control and safety systems of the reactor were done occasionally. Special reactor cores were created using all three types of fuel elements, among them, the coupled fast-thermal ones. Nuclear Safety Committee of the Vinca Institute, an independent regulatory body approved for usage all these modifications of the RB reactor. For those decisions of the Committee, the Preliminary Safety Analysis Reports were prepared that, beside proposed technical modifications and new regulation rules had included analyses of various possible accidents. Special attention is given and new methodology was proposed for thoroughly analyses of design based accidents related to coupled fast-thermal cores, that include reactor central zones filled by fuel elements without moderator. In these accidents, during assumed flooding of the fast zone by moderator, a very high reactivity could be inserted in the system with very high reactivity rate. It was necessary to provide that the safety system of the reactor had fast response to that accident and had enough high (negative) reactivity to shut down the reactor timely. In this paper, a brief overview of some accidents, methodology and computation tools used for the accident analyses at RB reactor are given. (author)

  2. Traffic Accidents Involving Cyclists Identifying Causal Factors Using Questionnaire Survey, Traffic Accident Data, and Real-World Observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikawa, Shoko; Hirose, Toshiya; Aomura, Shigeru; Matsui, Yasuhiro

    2016-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the mechanism of traffic accidents involving cyclists. The focus is on the characteristics of cyclist accidents and scenarios, because the number of traffic accidents involving cyclists in Tokyo is the highest in Japan. First, dangerous situations in traffic incidents were investigated by collecting data from 304 cyclists in one city in Tokyo using a questionnaire survey. The survey indicated that cyclists used their bicycles generally while commuting to work or school in the morning. Second, the study investigated the characteristics of 250 accident situations involving cyclists that happened in the city using real-world bicycle accident data. The results revealed that the traffic accidents occurred at intersections of local streets, where cyclists collided most often with vehicles during commute time in the morning. Third, cyclists' behavior was observed at a local street intersection in the morning in the city using video pictures. In one hour during the morning commute period, 250 bicycles passed through the intersection. The results indicated that one of the reasons for traffic accidents involving cyclists might be the combined effect of low visibility, caused by the presence of box-like building structures close to the intersections, and the cyclists' behavior in terms of their velocity and no confirming safety. It was observed that, on average, bicycle velocity was 3.1 m/s at the initial line of an intersection. The findings from this study could be useful in developing new technologies to improve cyclist safety, such as alert devices for cyclists and vehicle drivers, wireless communication systems between cyclists and vehicle drivers, or advanced vehicles with bicycle detection and collision mitigation systems.

  3. The Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maqua, M.; Stueck, R.

    2012-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami hit the Japanese east coast, causing more than 15,000 fatalities. To this date, 3,000 people are still missing. The Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP was the nuclear installation that was most affected by the tsunami. The earthquake cut off the NPP from the national grid. About 45 minutes later, the tsunami flooded units 1-4 and led to core meltdown events with large releases for units 1, 2 and 3. Unit 4 had been in refuelling outage at that time and lost the cooling of the spent fuel pool for several days. Considerable hydrogen explosions occurred in units 1, 3 and 4. Shortly after the accident, TEPCO started to mitigate the consequences of the accident by providing external cooling to the reactors and by removing the radioactive debris from the site. Great emphasis was laid on effective radiation protection measures for the clean-up workers. Thus, up to now there has been no fatality due to the radiation caused by the Fukushima accident. The main steps of the accident sequences are described, taking into account the latest findings of investigations performed by TEPCO or on behalf of the regulatory body. The presentation focuses on the description of the status of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant and the future steps for cleaning-up the site. In the presentation, the major phases of the roadmap that TEPCO has developed for the clean-up are highlighted. The risks associated with the current plant status and the clean-up phases are described. Abstract the content of the manuscript in a few lines.

  4. Nuclear accident dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The film presents statistical data on criticality accidents. It outlines past IAEA activities on criticality accident dosimetry and the technical documents that resulted from this work. The film furthermore illustrates an international comparison study on nuclear accident dosimetry conducted at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell, United Kingdom

  5. Nuclear accident dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1983-12-31

    The film presents statistical data on criticality accidents. It outlines past IAEA activities on criticality accident dosimetry and the technical documents that resulted from this work. The film furthermore illustrates an international comparison study on nuclear accident dosimetry conducted at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell, United Kingdom

  6. Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang-Hua Zhang; Hai-Yue Liu; Rui Zhu; Yang Liu

    2017-01-01

    The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the...

  7. Planning for large-scale accidents: learning from the Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, D.W.

    1981-01-01

    Decision-making issues raised at the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania are explored. The organizations involved, their interconnections, and decisions are described. The underlying issues bearing on allocation of effort to pre-accident planning and actual accident responses are also noted. Finally, a framework from this effort is used for guiding the planning of operations for future accidents. (author)

  8. Radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of radiation accidents over a 50 year period shows that simple cases, where the initiating events were immediately recognised, the source identified and under control, the medical input confined to current handling, were exceptional. In many cases, the accidents were only diagnosed when some injuries presented by the victims suggested the radiological nature of the cause. After large-scale accidents, the situation becomes more complicated, either because of management or medical problems, or both. The review of selected accidents which resulted in severe consequences shows that most of them could have been avoided; lack of regulations, contempt for rules, human failure and insufficient training have been identified as frequent initiating parameters. In addition, the situation was worsened because of unpreparedness, insufficient planning, unadapted resources, and underestimation of psychosociological aspects. (author)

  9. Traffic accidents on expressways: new threat to China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jinbao; Deng, Wei

    2012-01-01

    As China is building one of the largest expressway systems in the world, expressway safety problems have become serious concerns to China. This article analyzed the trends in expressway accidents in China from 1995 to 2010 and examined the characteristics of these accidents. Expressway accident data were obtained from the Annual Report for Road Traffic Accidents published by the Ministry of Public Security of China. Expressway mileage data were obtained from the National Statistics Yearbook published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted based on these data. Expressway deaths increased by 10.2-fold from 616 persons in 1995 to 6300 persons in 2010, and the average annual increase was 17.9 percent over the past 15 years, and the overall other road traffic deaths was -0.33 percent. China's expressway mileage accounted for only 1.85 percent of highway mileage driven in 2010, but expressway deaths made up 13.54 percent of highway traffic deaths. The average annual accident lethality rate [accident deaths/(accident deaths + accident injuries)] for China's expressways was 27.76 percent during the period 1995 to 2010, which was 1.33 times higher than the accident lethality rate of highway traffic accidents. China's government should pay attention to expressway construction and safety interventions during the rapid development period of expressways. Related causes, such as geographic patterns, speeding, weather conditions, and traffic flow composition, need to be studied in the near future. An effective and scientific expressway safety management services system, composed of a speed monitoring system, warning system, and emergency rescue system, should be established in developed and underdeveloped provinces in China to improve safety on expressway.

  10. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  11. Radiation accidents over the last 60 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, Jean-Claude

    2009-01-01

    Since the end of the Second World War, industrial and medical uses of radiation have been considerably increasing. Accidental overexposures of persons, in either the occupational or public field, have caused deaths and severe injuries and complications. The rate of severe accidents seems to increase with time, especially those involving the public; in addition, accidents are often not immediately recognised, which means that the real number of events remains unknown. Human factors, as well as the lack of elementary rules in the domains of radiological safety and protection, such as inadequate training, play a major role in the occurrence of the accidents which have been reported in the industrial, medical and military arenas. (review)

  12. Severe accident management guidelines tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez Varela, Javier; Tanarro Onrubia, Augustin; Martinez Fanegas, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Severe Accident is addressed by means of a great number of documents such as guidelines, calculation aids and diagnostic trees. The response methodology often requires the use of several documents at the same time while Technical Support Centre members need to assess the appropriate set of equipment within the adequate mitigation strategies. In order to facilitate the response, TECNATOM has developed SAMG TOOL, initially named GGAS TOOL, which is an easy to use computer program that clearly improves and accelerates the severe accident management. The software is designed with powerful features that allow the users to focus on the decision-making process. Consequently, SAMG TOOL significantly improves the severe accident training, ensuring a better response under a real situation. The software is already installed in several Spanish Nuclear Power Plants and trainees claim that the methodology can be followed easier with it, especially because guidelines, calculation aids, equipment information and strategies availability can be accessed immediately (authors)

  13. Automobile Accidents Attended by Mobile Emergency Care Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Virgínia Gomes Barros

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Automobile accidents are increasing every day and are becoming a serious public health problem due to the high morbidity and mortality rate. The goal of the current study was to characterise the traffic accidents attended by the Mobile Emergency Care Service (MECS in Ibiara, PB. Methods: This exploratory, descriptive, documentary study adopted a quantitative approach and analysis of data. The population consisted of all victims of traffic accidents attended by MECS in the city of Ibiara, PB, from June 2015 to June 2016. The following variables were studied: age, gender, time and day of the week the accident occurred, nature of the incident, substance ingested by the victim, wearing personal protective equipment (PPE or not, the anatomical lesions on the victim and the body regions hit during the accident. Results: The sample consisted of 49 accident victims, and the majority (81.6% were male, predominately 30 to 59 years. Events occurring at night (63.3% and during the week (65.3% predominated. The most frequent type of accident was motorcycle fall (71.4%, with almost half having consumed alcohol (46.9% and most not wearing PPE (77.6%. The regions of the body most affected were the lower limbs (67.3% and upper limbs (53.1%. Conclusion: The main factor/cause of these accidents was due to imprudence and violation of traffic laws, highlighting the need to invest in traffic education policies, to direct campaigns for the prevention of traffic accidents, as well as expand the surveillance of traffic laws by authorities.

  14. Instrumentation for the follow-up of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz Sanchez, A.; Nino Perote, R.

    2000-01-01

    During severe accidents, it is foreseeable that the instrumentation installed in a plant is subjected to conditions which are more hostile than those for which the instrumentation was designed and qualified. Moreover, new, specific instrumentation is required to monitor variables which have not been considered until now, and to control systems which lessen the consequences of severe accidents. Both existing instrumentation used to monitor critical functions in design basis accident conditions and additional instrumentation which provides the information necessary to control and mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, have to be designed to withstand such conditions, especially in terms of measurements range, functional characteristics and qualification to withstand pressure and temperature loads resulting from steam explosion, hydrogen combustion/explosion and high levels of radiation over long periods of time. (Author)

  15. Using MARS to assist in managing a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raines, J.C.; Hammersley, R.J.; Henry, R.E.

    2004-01-01

    During an accident, information about the current and possible future states of the plant provides guidance for accident managers in evaluating which actions should be taken. However, depending upon the nature of the accident and the stress levels imposed on the plant staff responding to the accident the current and future plant assessments may be very difficult or nearly impossible to perform without supplemental training and/or appropriate tools. The MAAP Accident Response System (MARS) has been developed as a calculational aid to assist the responsible accident management individuals. Specifically MARS provides additional insights on the current and possible future states of the plant during an accident including the influence of operator actions. In addition to serving as a calculational aid, the MARS software can be an effective means for providing supplemental training. The MARS software uses engineering calculations to perform an integral assessment of the plant status including a consistency assessment of the available instrumentation. In addition, it uses the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) to provide near term predictions of the plant response if corrective actions are taken. This paper will discuss the types of information that are beneficial to the accident manager and how MARS addresses each. The MARS calculational functions include: instrumentation, validation and simulation, projected operator response based on the EOPs, as well as estimated timing and magnitude of in-plant and off-site radiation dose releases. Each of these items is influential in the management of a severe accident. (author)

  16. Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

    2012-01-01

    This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national

  17. Updating long-range transport model predictions using real-time monitoring data in case of nuclear accidents with release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, Frank; Tassone, Caterina; Grippa, Gianni; Zarimpas, Nicolas; Graziani, Giovanni

    1991-01-01

    A procedure is developed to reduce the uncertainties of long-range transport model predictions, in case of a large scale nuclear accident. It is based on the availability in 'real time' of the concentrations of airborne radioactive aerosols from automatic on-line monitors, which are presently being installed throughout Europe. Essentially, the procedure consists of: (1) constructing new (area) source terms from the measured field data as they become available; and (2) restart the prediction with these sources, rather than with the original (point) source. The procedure is applied to the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that the procedure is feasible and might result in an improvement of the prediction of the location of the cloud by several hundreds of kilometers and the actual levels with an order of magnitude. The weak point is the treatment of the vertical structure and transport of the cloud, which can only be solved when 'real-time' upper air observations are also available. (author)

  18. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  19. Database on aircraft accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishio, Masahide; Koriyama, Tamio

    2012-09-01

    The Reactor Safety Subcommittee in the Nuclear Safety and Preservation Committee published the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' as the standard method for evaluating probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities in July 2002. In response to the report, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has been collecting open information on aircraft accidents of commercial airplanes, self-defense force (SDF) airplanes and US force airplanes every year since 2003, sorting out them and developing the database of aircraft accidents for latest 20 years to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities. This year, the database was revised by adding aircraft accidents in 2010 to the existing database and deleting aircraft accidents in 1991 from it, resulting in development of the revised 2011 database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010. Furthermore, the flight information on commercial aircrafts was also collected to develop the flight database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities. The method for developing the database of aircraft accidents to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities is based on the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' described above. The 2011 revised database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 shows the followings. The trend of the 2011 database changes little as compared to the last year's one. (1) The data of commercial aircraft accidents is based on 'Aircraft accident investigation reports of Japan transport safety board' of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. 4 large fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 58 small fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 5 large bladed aircraft accidents and 114 small bladed aircraft accidents occurred. The relevant accidents for evaluating

  20. Accidents cutting and piercing in a School of Dentistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Zindel Deboni

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the occurrence and characteristics of the reported accidents with perforating-cutting materials involving students, staff and faculty members, between 2000 and 2005 at the Dental Clinic of the School of Dentistry of the University of São Paulo. Methods: A survey of the records of reported occurrences of accidents was made, considering the material that caused the accident, time of day of the occurrence, the discipline in which it occurred, and clinical conduct adopted in the emergency room. When available, the results of the laboratory exams of the accident victim and the source patient were also taken into consideration. Results: The data assessed showed there were 40 accident reports, of which 39 reports involved undergraduate students and 1 staff member. The instrument that caused most accidents was the anesthetic needle and largest number of these accidents occurred in the Surgery discipline. However, 50% of the records did not present complete information, which prevented a more accurate epidemiological assessment. Conclusion: The data obtained led to the conclusion that the rate of accidents is extremely low considering the number of clinical attendances provided in the period and raises the hypothesis that many cases were not reported.

  1. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph; Beaugelin, K; Maubert, H; Ledenvic, Ph

    1998-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  2. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

    1997-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  3. A new approach to road accident rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Alejandro; González-Aguilera, Diego; López, Alfonso I; Gutiérrez, Miguel A

    2016-01-01

    This article develops and validates a new methodology and tool for rescue assistance in traffic accidents, with the aim of improving its efficiency and safety in the evacuation of people, reducing the number of victims in road accidents. Different tests supported by professionals and experts have been designed under different circumstances and with different categories of damaged vehicles coming from real accidents and simulated trapped victims in order to calibrate and refine the proposed methodology and tool. To validate this new approach, a tool called App_Rescue has been developed. This tool is based on the use of a computer system that allows an efficient access to the technical information of the vehicle and sanitary information of the common passengers. The time spent during rescue using the standard protocol and the proposed method was compared. This rescue assistance system allows us to make vital information accessible in posttrauma care services, improving the effectiveness of interventions by the emergency services, reducing the rescue time and therefore minimizing the consequences involved and the number of victims. This could often mean saving lives. In the different simulated rescue operations, the rescue time has been reduced an average of 14%.

  4. Classification Of Road Accidents From The Perspective Of Vehicle Safety Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jirovský Václav

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Modern road accident investigation and database structures are focused on accident analysis and classification from the point of view of the accident itself. The presented article offers a new approach, which will describe the accident from the point of view of integrated safety vehicle systems. Seven main categories have been defined to specify the level of importance of automated system intervention. One of the proposed categories is a new approach to defining the collision probability of an ego-vehicle with another object. This approach focuses on determining a 2-D reaction space, which describes all possible positions of the vehicle or other moving object in the specified amount of time in the future. This is to be used for defining the probability of the vehicles interacting - when the intersection of two reaction spaces exists, an action has to be taken on the side of ego-vehicle. The currently used 1-D quantity of TTC (time-to-collision can be superseded by the new reaction space variable. Such new quantity, whose basic idea is described in the article, enables the option of counting not only with necessary braking time, but mitigation by changing direction is then easily feasible. Finally, transparent classification measures of a probable accident are proposed. Their application is highly effective not only during basic accident comparison, but also for an on-board safety system.

  5. Seasonal survival rates and causes of mortality of Little Owls in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Pedersen, Dorthe; Sunde, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Survival rate is an essential component of population dynamics; therefore, identification of variation in mortality rates and the factors that influence them might be of key importance in understanding why populations increase or decrease. In Denmark, the Little Owl Athene noctua, a species...... the causes of current survival rates, we estimated age- and season-specific survival rates and causes of mortality in Danish Little Owls on the basis of ringed birds 1920–2002, radio tagged adult and juveniles 2005–2008 and nest surveys 2006–2008. We estimate that 32 % of all eggs fledge and survive to 2...... the breeding season. In radio-tagged adults and fledged juveniles, accidents in buildings and other human infrastructures were responsible for two-thirds of all fatalities. Anthropogenic habitats currently comprise the nesting and roosting habitats for the last Danish Little Owls. The accidental deaths...

  6. Effect of bifidobacteria implantation on the survival time of whole-body irradiated mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokokura, Teruo; Onoue, Masaharu; Mutai, Masahiko

    1980-01-01

    Letahl dose (2 KR) of gamma-ray was irradiated on the whole bodies of mice. Survival time after irradiation was significantly longer in mice with administration of both Bifidobacterium breve YIT 4008 and transgalactosyl oligosaccharide than in mice with administration of either of the two or nothing. (Tsunoda, M.)

  7. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMillan, Matthew T.; Ojerholm, Eric; Roses, Robert E.; Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M.; Mamtani, Ronac; Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A.; Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Datta, Jashodeep

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered

  8. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  9. Preventing accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-08-01

    As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

  10. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the road......This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...

  11. Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) - MELCOR Crosswalk: Phase II Analyzing a Partially Recovered Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Nathan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Faucett, Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haskin, Troy Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luxat, Dave [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Geiger, Garrett [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Codella, Brittany [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recovery of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.

  12. The causes and prevalence of road traffic accidents amongst ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study showed a prevalence of road traffic accidents of 47.9% in Benin City occurring more in day time and the common causes of road traffic accidents include careless driving, speed violation, brake failure, traffic violations, faulty overtaking, burst tyre, bad roads, alcohol use and armed robbery attack. Thus measures ...

  13. MELCOR assessment of sequential severe accident mitigation actions under SGTR accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Wonjun; Jeon, Joongoo; Kim, Nam Kyung; Kim, Sung Joong

    2017-01-01

    The representative example of the severe accident studies using the severe accident code is investigation of effectiveness of developed severe accident management (SAM) strategy considering the positive and adverse effects. In Korea, some numerical studies were performed to investigate the SAM strategy using various severe accident codes. Seo et.al performed validation of RCS depressurization strategy and investigated the effect of severe accident management guidance (SAMG) entry condition under small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) without safety injection (SI), station blackout (SBO), and total loss of feed water (TLOFW) scenarios. The SGTR accident with the sequential mitigation actions according to the flow chart of SAMG was simulated by the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. Three scenariospreventing the RPV failure were investigated in terms of fission product release, hydrogen risk, and the containment pressure. Major conclusions can be summarized as follows: (1) According to the flow chart of SAMG, RPV failure can be prevented depending on the method of RCS depressurization. (2) To reduce the release of fission product during the injecting into SGs, a temporary opening of SDS before the injecting into SGs was suggested. These modified sequences of mitigation actions can reduce the release of fission product and the adverse effect of SDS.

  14. Emotional stress and traffic accidents: the impact of separation and divorce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Emmanuel; Chastang, Jean-François; Gueguen, Alice; Coeuret-Pellicer, Mireille; Chiron, Mireille; Lafont, Sylviane

    2004-11-01

    Personal responses to stressful life events are suspected of increasing the risk of serious traffic accidents. We analyzed data from a French cohort study (the GAZEL cohort), including a retrospective driving behavior questionnaire, from 13,915 participants (10,542 men age 52-62 years and 3373 women age 47-62 years in 2001). Follow-up data covered 1993-2000. Hazard ratios for serious accidents (n = 713) were computed by Cox's proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates. Separate analyses were also performed to consider only at-fault accidents. Marital separation or divorce was associated with an increased risk of a serious accident (all serious accidents: hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.7-5.0; at-fault accidents: 4.4, 2.3-8.3). The impact of separation and divorce did not differ according to alcohol consumption levels. Other life events associated with increased risk of serious accident were a child leaving home (all accidents: 1.2, 0.97-1.6; at-fault accidents: 1.5, 1.1-2.1), an important purchase (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-1.7; at-fault accidents: 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and hospitalization of the partner (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-2.0). This study suggests that recent separation and divorce are associated with an increase in serious traffic accidents.

  15. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yulianti, Yanti; Su’ud, Zaki; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2015-01-01

    Thorium has lately attracted considerable attention because it is accumulating as a by-product of large scale rare earth mining. The objective of research is to analyze transient behavior of a heavy water cooled thorium breeder that is designed by Tokai University and Tokyo Institute of Technology. That is oxide fueled, PWR type reactor with heavy water as primary coolant. An example of the optimized core has relatively small moderator to fuel volume ratio (MFR) of 0.6 and the characteristics of the core are burn-up of 67 GWd/t, breeding ratio of 1.08, burn-up reactivity loss during cycles of < 0.2% dk/k, and negative coolant reactivity coefficient. One of the nuclear reactor accidents types examined here is Unprotected Transient over Power (UTOP) due to withdrawing of the control rod that result in the positive reactivity insertion so that the reactor power will increase rapidly. Another accident type is Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) that caused by failure of coolant pumps. To analyze the reactor accidents, neutron distribution calculation in the nuclear reactor is the most important factor. The best expression for the neutron distribution is the Boltzmann transport equation. However, solving this equation is very difficult so that the space-time diffusion equation is commonly used. Usually, space-time diffusion equation is solved by employing a point kinetics approach. However, this approach is less accurate for a spatially heterogeneous nuclear reactor and the nuclear reactor with quite large reactivity input. Direct method is therefore used to solve space-time diffusion equation which consider spatial factor in detail during nuclear reactor accident simulation. Set of equations that obtained from full implicit finite-difference method is solved by using iterative methods. The indication of UTOP accident is decreasing macroscopic absorption cross-section that results large external reactivity, and ULOF accident is indicated by decreasing coolant flow. The

  17. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yulianti, Yanti [Department of Physics, University of Lampung Jl. Sumantri Brojonegoro No.1 Bandar Lampung, Indonesia Email: y-yanti@unila.ac.id (Indonesia); Su’ud, Zaki [Department of Physics, Bandung Institute of Technology Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung, Indonesia Email: szaki@fi.itb.ac.id (Indonesia); Takaki, Naoyuki [Department of Nuclear Safety Engineering Cooperative Major in Nuclear Energy (Graduate School) 1-28-1 Tamazutsumi,Setagayaku, Tokyo158-8557, Japan Email: ntakaki@tcu.ac.jp (Japan)

    2015-04-16

    Thorium has lately attracted considerable attention because it is accumulating as a by-product of large scale rare earth mining. The objective of research is to analyze transient behavior of a heavy water cooled thorium breeder that is designed by Tokai University and Tokyo Institute of Technology. That is oxide fueled, PWR type reactor with heavy water as primary coolant. An example of the optimized core has relatively small moderator to fuel volume ratio (MFR) of 0.6 and the characteristics of the core are burn-up of 67 GWd/t, breeding ratio of 1.08, burn-up reactivity loss during cycles of < 0.2% dk/k, and negative coolant reactivity coefficient. One of the nuclear reactor accidents types examined here is Unprotected Transient over Power (UTOP) due to withdrawing of the control rod that result in the positive reactivity insertion so that the reactor power will increase rapidly. Another accident type is Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) that caused by failure of coolant pumps. To analyze the reactor accidents, neutron distribution calculation in the nuclear reactor is the most important factor. The best expression for the neutron distribution is the Boltzmann transport equation. However, solving this equation is very difficult so that the space-time diffusion equation is commonly used. Usually, space-time diffusion equation is solved by employing a point kinetics approach. However, this approach is less accurate for a spatially heterogeneous nuclear reactor and the nuclear reactor with quite large reactivity input. Direct method is therefore used to solve space-time diffusion equation which consider spatial factor in detail during nuclear reactor accident simulation. Set of equations that obtained from full implicit finite-difference method is solved by using iterative methods. The indication of UTOP accident is decreasing macroscopic absorption cross-section that results large external reactivity, and ULOF accident is indicated by decreasing coolant flow. The

  18. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  19. The radiological accident in Yanango

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The use of nuclear technologies has fostered new, more effective and efficient medical procedures and has substantially improved diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. However, in order that the benefits of the use of ionizing radiation outweigh the potential hazards posed by this medium, it is important that radiation protection and safety standards be established to govern every aspect of the application of ionizing radiation. Adherence to these standards needs to be maintained through effective regulatory control, safe operational procedures and a safety culture that is shared by all. Occasionally, established safety procedures are violated and serious radiological consequences ensue. The radiological accident described in this report, which took place in Lilo, Georgia, was a result of such an infraction. Sealed radiation sources had been abandoned by a previous owner at a site without following established regulatory safety procedures, for example by transferring the sources to the new owner or treating them as spent material and conditioning them as waste. As a consequence, 11 individuals at the site were exposed for a long period of time to high doses of radiation which resulted inter alia in severe radiation induced skin injuries. Although at the time of the accident Georgia was not an IAEA Member State and was not a signatory of the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency, the IAEA still provided assistance to the Government of Georgia in assessing the radiological situation, while the World Health Organization (WHO) assisted in alleviating the medical consequences of the accident. The two organizations co-operated closely from the beginning, following the request for assistance by the Georgian Government. The IAEA conducted the radiological assessment and was responsible for preparing the report. The WHO and its collaborating centres within the Radiation Emergency Medical Preparedness and Assistance Network

  20. Development of a severe accident training simulator using a MELCOR code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ko Ryu; Jeong, Kwang Sub; Ha, Jae Joo; Jung, Won Dae

    2002-03-01

    Nuclear power plants' severe accidents are, despite of their rareness, very important in safety aspects, because of their huge damages when occurred. For the appropriate execution of severe accident strategy, more information for decision-making are required because of the uncertainties included in severe accidents. Earlier NRC raised concerns over severe accident training in the report NUREC/CR-477, and accordingly, developing effective training tools for severe accident were emphasized. In fact the training tools were requested from industrial area, nevertheless, few training tools were developed due to the uncertainties in severe accidents, lacks of analysis computer codes and technical limitations. SATS, the severe accident training simulator, is developed as a multi-purpose tools for severe accident training. SATS uses the calculation results of MELCOR, an integral severe accident analysis code, and with the help of SL-GMS graphic tools, provides dynamic displays of severe accident phenomena on the terminal of IBM PC. It aimed to have two main features: one is to provide graphic displays to represent severe accident phenomena and the other is to process and simulate severe accident strategy given by plant operators and TSC staffs. Severe accident strategies are basically composed of series of operations of available pumps, valves and other equipments. Whenever executing strategies with SATS, the trainee should follow the HyperKAMG, the on line version of the recently developed severe accident guidance (KAMG). Severe accident strategies are closely related to accidents scenarios. TLOFW and LOCA , two representative severe accident scenarios of Uljin 3,4, are developed as a built-in scenarios of SATS. Although SATS has some minor problems at this time, we expect SATS will be a good severe accident training tool after the appropriate addition of accident scenarios. Moreover, we also expect SATS will be a good advisory tool for the severe accident research

  1. Supervisor's accident investigation handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-02-01

    This pamphlet was prepared by the Environmental Health and Safety Department (EH and S) of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) to provide LBL supervisors with a handy reference to LBL's accident investigation program. The publication supplements the Accident and Emergencies section of LBL's Regulations and Procedures Manual, Pub. 201. The present guide discusses only accidents that are to be investigated by the supervisor. These accidents are classified as Type C by the Department of Energy (DOE) and include most occupational injuries and illnesses, government motor-vehicle accidents, and property damages of less than $50,000

  2. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (I: Major inducement events of the accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen drilling in poor tight gas sandstone should be safe because of very low gas production. But a serious accident of fire blowout occurred during nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1. This is the first nitrogen drilling accident in China, which was beyond people's knowledge about the safety of nitrogen drilling and brought negative effects on the development of gas drilling technology still in start-up phase and resulted in dramatic reduction in application of gas drilling. In order to form a correct understanding, the accident was systematically analyzed, the major events resulting in this accident were inferred. It is discovered for the first time that violent ejection of rock clasts and natural gas occurred due to the sudden burst of downhole rock when the fractured tight gas zone was penetrated during nitrogen drilling, which has been named as “rock burst and blowout by gas bomb”, short for “rock burst”. Then all the induced events related to the rock burst are as following: upthrust force on drilling string from rock burst, bridging-off formed and destructed repeatedly at bit and centralizer, and so on. However, the most direct important event of the accident turns out to be the blockage in the blooie pipe from rock burst clasts and the resulted high pressure at the wellhead. The high pressure at the wellhead causes the blooie pipe to crack and trigged blowout and deflagration of natural gas, which is the direct presentation of the accident.

  3. Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

  4. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (II: Restoration of the accident process and lessons learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available All the important events of the accident of nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1 have been speculated and analyzed in the paper I. In this paper II, based on the investigating information, the well log data and some calculating and simulating results, according to the analysis method of the fault tree of safe engineering, the every possible compositions, their possibilities and time schedule of the events of the accident of Well Qionglai 1 have been analyzed, the implications of the logging data have been revealed, the process of the accident of Well Qionglai 1 has been restored. Some important understandings have been obtained: the objective causes of the accident is the rock burst and the induced events form rock burst, the subjective cause of the accident is that the blooie pipe could not bear the flow burden of the clasts from rock burst and was blocked by the clasts. The blocking of blooie pipe caused high pressure in wellhead, the high pressure made the blooie pipe burst, natural gas came out and flared fire. This paper also thinks that the rock burst in gas drilling in fractured tight sandstone gas zone is objective and not avoidable, but the accidents induced from rock burst can be avoidable by improving the performance of the blooie pipe, wellhead assemblies and drilling tool accessories aiming at the downhole rock burst.

  5. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  6. Integral thermal model of severe accident dynamics of NPP with containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bol'shov, L.A.; Vasil'ev, A.D.; Kamennov, G.P.

    1991-01-01

    An analytical model of the interaction of reactor core remains with concrete during severe accidents at nuclear power plants is considered. Time dependences of side and radial concrete melting are plotted. Time dependences of containment atmosphere temperature and pressure during a severe accident at nuclear power plants are investigated analytically and numerically. The sensitivity of the results to the coefficient values in the problem is studied within the range of their concertainty. The Kaverna-1 is described. The results of modelling a severe NPP accident which have been obtained using the Kaverna-1 package are presented

  7. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  8. Accident rate analysis for well drilling at Kuban' morneftegazprom association

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sukhanov, V B; Kezchikov, A V

    1981-01-01

    Analysis of emergency procedures at the association during 1976--1977 is provided. Conclusions were made and plans established for basic directions of engineering-production operations and for association and enterprise division sections with regard to lowering accident rate and time period necessary to eliminate accidents.

  9. Vehicle accidents related to sleep: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, J; Reyner, L

    1999-05-01

    Falling asleep while driving accounts for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents under monotonous driving conditions. Many of these accidents are related to work--for example, drivers of lorries, goods vehicles, and company cars. Time of day (circadian) effects are profound, with sleepiness being particularly evident during night shift work, and driving home afterwards. Circadian factors are as important in determining driver sleepiness as is the duration of the drive, but only duration of the drive is built into legislation protecting professional drivers. Older drivers are also vulnerable to sleepiness in the mid-afternoon. Possible pathological causes of driver sleepiness are discussed, but there is little evidence that this factor contributes greatly to the accident statistics. Sleep does not occur spontaneously without warning. Drivers falling asleep are unlikely to recollect having done so, but will be aware of the precursory state of increasing sleepiness; probably reaching a state of fighting off sleep before an accident. Self awareness of sleepiness is a better method for alerting the driver than automatic sleepiness detectors in the vehicle. None of these have been proved to be reliable and most have shortcomings. Putative counter measures to sleepiness, adopted during continued driving (cold air, use of car radio) are only effective for a short time. The only safe counter measure to driver sleepiness, particularly when the driver reaches the stage of fighting sleep, is to stop driving, and--for example, take a 30 minute break encompassing a short (driving while sleepy, and driving at vulnerable times of the day.

  10. Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis for SGTR by Using Dynamic PSA Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Sul; Heo, Gyun Young; Kim, Tae Wan

    2016-01-01

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. Based on the results of a sampling analysis and data from the conventional PSA model, the CDF caused by Sequence no. 26 can be realistically estimated. For a TLOFW accident with LOCA, second accident timings were categorized according to plant condition. Indicators were selected as branch point using the flow chart and tables, and a corresponding sequence tree model was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model

  11. [Motorcycle couriers: characteristics of traffic accidents in southern Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Dorotéia Fátima Pelissari de Paula; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas; da Silva, Daniela Wosiack; de Andrade, Selma Maffei

    2011-09-01

    This study aimed at understanding characteristics of traffic accidents with motorcycle couriers in the cities of Londrina and Maringá, in the State of Paraná (Brazil). A total of 327 couriers who reported, in 2005/2006, motorcycle accident in the previous 12 months took part in the study (147 in Londrina and 180 in Maringá). Of all the interviewed, 39.6% reported more than one traffic accident. The accidents were perceived as serious by 21.4% of them and 56.3% reported knowing a convalescing courier due to a traffic accident. Most injuries (82.9%) occurred during work hours. Significant differences were observed between the cities concerning climatic conditions (p=0.013), time of the day (p=0.002), pre-hospital care (p=0.032) and hospital admission (paccidents highlight the susceptibility of motorcycle couriers to these events and the need for strategies and specific prevention policies.

  12. Proposal for computer investigation of LMFBR core meltdown accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudreau, J.E.; Harlow, F.H.; Reed, W.H.; Barnes, J.F.

    1974-01-01

    The environmental consequences of an LMFBR accident involving breach of containment are so severe that such accidents must not be allowed to happen. Present methods for analyzing hypothetical core disruptive accidents like a loss of flow with failure to scram cannot show conclusively that such accidents do not lead to a rupture of the pressure vessel. A major deficiency of present methods is their inability to follow large motions of a molten LMFBR core. Such motions may lead to a secondary supercritical configuration with a subsequent energy release that is sufficient to rupture the pressure vessel. The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory proposes to develop a computer program for describing the dynamics of hypothetical accidents. This computer program will utilize implicit Eulerian fluid dynamics methods coupled with a time-dependent transport theory description of the neutronic behavior. This program will be capable of following core motions until a stable coolable configuration is reached. Survey calculations of reactor accidents with a variety of initiating events will be performed for reactors under current design to assess the safety of such reactors

  13. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost; Vladimir V. Frolov; Boris G. Ryazanov; Victor I. Sviridov

    2000-05-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.

  14. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, Thomas P.; Monahan, Shean P.; Pruvost, Norman L.; Frolov, Vladimir V.; Ryazanov, Boris G.; Sviridov, Victor I.

    2000-01-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report

  15. Thirtieth anniversary of reactor accident in A-1 Nuclear Power Plant Jaslovske Bohunice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuruc, J.; Matel, L.

    2007-01-01

    The facts about reactor accidents in A-1 Nuclear Power Plant Jaslovske Bohunice, Slovakia are presented. There was the reactor KS150 (HWGCR) cooled with carbon dioxide and moderated with heavy water. A-1 NPP was commissioned on December 25, 1972. The first reactor accident happened on January 5, 1976 during fuel loading. This accident has not been evaluated according to the INES scale up to the present time. The second serious accident in A-1 NPP occurred on February 22, 1977 also during fuel loading. This INES level 4 of reactor accident resulted in damaged fuel integrity with extensive corrosion damage of fuel cladding and release of radioactivity into the plant area. The A-1 NPP was consecutively shut down and is being decommissioned in the present time. Both reactor accidents are described briefly. Some radioecological and radiobiological consequences of accidents and contamination of area of A-1 NPP as well as of Manivier Canal and Dudvah River as result of flooding during the decommissioning are presented (authors)

  16. Application of the accident management information needs methodology to a severe accident sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, L.W.; Hanson, D.J.; Nelson, W.R.; Solberg, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting an accident management research program that emphasizes the use of severe accident research to enhance the ability of plant operating personnel to effectively manage severe accidents. Hence, it is necessary to ensure that the plant instrumentation and information systems adequately provide this information to the operating staff during accident conditions. A methodology to identify and assess the information needs of the operating staff of a nuclear power plant during a severe accident has been developed. The methodology identifies (a) the information needs of the plant personnel during a wide range of accident conditions, (b) the existing plant measurements capable of supplying these information needs and minor additions to instrument and display systems that would enhance management capabilities, (c) measurement capabilities and limitations during severe accident conditions, and (d) areas in which the information systems could mislead plant personnel

  17. Application of the accident management information needs methodology to a severe accident sequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, L.W.; Hanson, D.J.; Nelson, W.R. (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls (USA)); Solberg, D.E. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (USA))

    1989-11-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting an accident management research program that emphasizes the use of severe accident research to enhance the ability of plant operating personnel to effectively manage severe accidents. Hence, it is necessary to ensure that the plant instrumentation and information systems adequately provide this information to the operating staff during accident conditions. A methodology to identify and assess the information needs of the operating staff of a nuclear power plant during a severe accident has been developed. The methodology identifies (a) the information needs of the plant personnel during a wide range of accident conditions, (b) the existing plant measurements capable of supplying these information needs and minor additions to instrument and display systems that would enhance management capabilities, (c) measurement capabilities and limitations during severe accident conditions, and (d) areas in which the information systems could mislead plant personnel.

  18. Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

    2018-01-01

    The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

  19. Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doizi D.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d’Investissement d’Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

  20. Noble gas control room accident filtration system for severe accident conditions (N-CRAFT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Axel; Stiepani, Cristoph; Drechsler, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Severe accidents might cause the release of airborne radioactive substances to the environment of the NPP either due to containment leakages or due to intentional filtered containment venting. In the latter case aerosols and iodine are retained, however noble gases are not retainable by the FCVS or by conventional air filtration systems like HEPA filters and iodine absorbers. Radioactive noble gases nevertheless dominate the activity release depending on the venting procedure and the weather conditions. To prevent unacceptable contamination of the control room atmosphere by noble gases, AREVA GmbH has developed a noble gas control room accident filtration system (CRAFT) which can supply purified fresh air to the control room without time limitation. The retention process is based on dynamic adsorption of noble gases on activated carbon. The system consists of delay lines (carbon columns) which are operated by a continuous and simultaneous adsorption and desorption process. CRAFT allows minimization of the dose rate inside the control room and ensures low radiation exposure to the staff by maintaining the control room environment suitable for prolonged occupancy throughout the duration of the accident. CRAFT consists of a proven modular design either transportable or permanently installed. (author)

  1. The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

  2. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

    2015-02-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  3. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  4. Normal accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perrow, C.

    1989-01-01

    The author has chosen numerous concrete examples to illustrate the hazardousness inherent in high-risk technologies. Starting with the TMI reactor accident in 1979, he shows that it is not only the nuclear energy sector that bears the risk of 'normal accidents', but also quite a number of other technologies and industrial sectors, or research fields. The author refers to the petrochemical industry, shipping, air traffic, large dams, mining activities, and genetic engineering, showing that due to the complexity of the systems and their manifold, rapidly interacting processes, accidents happen that cannot be thoroughly calculated, and hence are unavoidable. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Structural evaluation of electrosleeved tubes under severe accident transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1999-01-01

    A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth model and the Hall-Petch relationship were used to calculate the loss of flow stress as a function of time and temperature during the accident. Available tensile test data as well as high temperature failure tests on notched Electrosleeved tube specimens were used to derive the basic parameters of the failure model. The model was used to predict the failure temperatures of Electrosleeved tubes with axial cracks in the parent tube during postulated severe accident transients

  6. Decrease of morbidity in road traffic accidents in a high income country - an analysis of 24,405 accidents in a 21 year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernstberger, Antonio; Joeris, Alexander; Daigl, Monica; Kiss, Miklos; Angerpointner, Katharina; Nerlich, Michael; Schmucker, Uli

    2015-10-01

    The WHO initiated the "Decade of Action for Road Safety" because the fatality on road traffic accidents could become the fifth leading cause of death in 2030. On the contrary, fatalities continue to decrease in high income countries. The aim of the study was to find evidence for changes in injury severity of passenger car occupants after road traffic accidents in Germany over time, and to find contributing factors. Data from the German In Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), representative for Germany, was used. A total of 24.405 accidents, reported from 1991 until 2011. 44.503 adult passenger car occupants were examined. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to find reasons for observed trends over time. The relative decrease in mortality was 68.8% from 1991 until 2011. Between 2006 and 2011, the percentage of severely injured traffic victims was less than half, both in terms of the whole body and individual body regions. For injuries with an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 2, the percentage of persons with lower leg injuries declined by 72.5%, followed by the percentage of persons with pelvic injuries (61.5%), upper extremity injuries (57.7%), head injuries (54.3%), thorax injuries (50.0%), and abdomen injuries (40.0%). The multivariable regression model found 13 independent variables associated with injury prevention (e.g. seat belt use: OR 0.41, CI 95% 0.32-0.49; airbag: OR 0.86, CI 95% 0.75-0.99). The implementation of protective factors increased over time while accident constellations with a high probability for severe injury decreased over time. The decrease of severe injuries after road traffic accidents can be only attributed to a comprehensive approach including the enforcement of road safety policies and innovations in car engineering and emergency medicine. Traffic related measures and alcohol level control, and seat belt usage enforcement next to other technical advances are considered especially important. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

  7. First days of the Chernobyl accident. Private experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karpan, Nikolay

    2013-01-01

    Ex-deputy chief engineer of Chernobyl NPP described the time-series personal experience of the fourth unit accident on 26 April, 1986. He was informed the accident at home at 4 o'clock. He came to the plant at 7 o'clock. He and other newcomers were no informed about what happened at the plant and about details of the accident from top manager of the plant. He gathered important information about the accident from people that were eyewitness of the accident and recorded their evidences. He reported to head engineer and his deputy that solution of boron acid could be brought into reactor for suppression of the chain reaction. Director of NPP asked authorities to bring boron acid to the plant, but the boron acid was not received before the chain reaction. The critical state began approximately 20 in the evening. After 4 hours of the critical state exposition dose rate of gamma radiation was ten times from 20 R/h in the morning and middle of day to 200 R/h. He consider as the first fault of the Governmental Commission was the absence of efforts for bringing boron to gorges of fuel and to shaft of reactor. The second fault was that protective countermeasures for city population protection were not undertaken. The authorities of Chernobyl began to wait for decisions of higher authorities. This means that responsibility was moved to them. (N.T)

  8. Dose estimates in a loss of lead shielding truck accident.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science & Technology Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-08-01

    The radiological transportation risk & consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an updated loss of lead shielding (LOS) model to it most recent version, RADTRAN 6.0. The LOS model was used to determine dose estimates to first-responders during a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident. Results varied according to the following: type of accident scenario, percent of lead slump, distance to shipment, and time spent in the area. This document presents a method of creating dose estimates for first-responders using RADTRAN with potential accident scenarios. This may be of particular interest in the event of high speed accidents or fires involving cask punctures.

  9. Accident analysis. A review of the various accidents classifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin Martin, L.; Figueras, J.M.

    1982-01-01

    The objective of the accident analysis, in relation with the safety evaluation, environmental impact and emergency planning, should be to identify the total risk to the population and workers from potential accidents in the facility, analizing it over full spectrum of severity. (auth.)

  10. French policy for managing the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallay, F; Godet, J L; Niel, J C

    2015-06-01

    In 2005, at the request of the French Government, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) established a Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident or a Radiological Emergency, with the objective of establishing a policy framework. Under the supervision of ASN, this Committee, involving several tens of experts from different backgrounds (e.g. relevant ministerial offices, expert agencies, local information commissions around nuclear installations, non-governmental organisations, elected officials, licensees, and international experts), developed a number of recommendations over a 7-year period. First published in November 2012, these recommendations cover the immediate post-emergency situation, and the transition and longer-term periods of the post-accident phase in the case of medium-scale nuclear accidents causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 h) that might occur at French nuclear facilities. They also apply to actions to be undertaken in the event of accidents during the transportation of radioactive materials. These recommendations are an important first step in preparation for the management of a post-accident situation in France in the case of a nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

  11. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M.; Medford, G.T.

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied

  12. Development of an accident diagnosis system using a dynamic neural network for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jong Hyun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    In this work, an accident diagnosis system using the dynamic neural network is developed. In order to help the plant operators to quickly identify the problem, perform diagnosis and initiate recovery actions ensuring the safety of the plant, many operator support system and accident diagnosis systems have been developed. Neural networks have been recognized as a good method to implement an accident diagnosis system. However, conventional accident diagnosis systems that used neural networks did not consider a time factor sufficiently. If the neural network could be trained according to time, it is possible to perform more efficient and detailed accidents analysis. Therefore, this work suggests a dynamic neural network which has different features from existing dynamic neural networks. And a simple accident diagnosis system is implemented in order to validate the dynamic neural network. After training of the prototype, several accident diagnoses were performed. The results show that the prototype can detect the accidents correctly with good performances

  13. The Value of Serum NR2 Antibody in Prediction of Post-Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Bidari

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits antibody (NR2-ab is a sensitive marker of ischemic brain damage in clinical circumstances, such as cerebrovascular accidents. We aimed to assess the value of serum NR2-ab in predicting the post-cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR survival. Methods: In this cohort study, we examined serum NR2-ab levels 1 hour after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in 49 successfully resuscitated patients. Patients with traumatic or asphyxic arrests, prior neurological insults, or major medical illnesses were excluded. Participants were followed until death or hospital discharge. Demographic data, coronary artery disease risk factors, time before initiation of CPR, and CPR duration were documented.  In addition, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, blood pressure, and survival status of patients were recorded at 1, 6, 24, and 72 hour(s after ROSC. Descriptive analyses were performed, and the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to assess if NR2-ab level is an independent predictive factor of survival. Results: 49 successfully resuscitated patients were evaluated; 27 (55% survived to hospital discharge, 4 (8.1% were in vegetative state, 10 (20.4% were physically disabled, and 13 (26.5% were physically functional. Within 72 hours of ROSC all of the 12 NR2-ab positive patients died. In contrast, 31 (84% of the NR2-ab negative patients survived. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of NR2-ab in prediction of survival were 54.5% (95%CI=32.7%-74.9%, 100% (95%CI=84.5%-100%, infinite, and 45.5% (95%CI=28.8%-71.8%, respectively. Subsequent analysis showed that both NR2-ab status and GCS were independent risk factors of death. Conclusions: A positive NR2-ab serum test 1 hour after ROSC correlated with lower 72-hour survival. Further studies are required to validate this finding and demonstrate the value of a quantitative NR2-ab assay and its optimal time of measurement.

  14. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClure, J.D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

  15. Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Nathan C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gauntt, Randall O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of the of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and

  16. The Chernobyl accident - did it affect pregnancy outcomes in Norway?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skjeldestad, F.E.; Munch, J.S.; Madland, T.M.

    1992-01-01

    The outcome of pregnancies in the county of Soer-Troendelag in Norway, during the 27 months preceding and 21 months after the Chernobyl accident has been analysed on the basis of time of conception. The analysis showed a significant decrease in the number of conceptions during the three months immediately after the accident (April - June 1986). This finding can be interpreted to mean fewer ''planned'' conceptions. The Chernobyl accident did not seem to have had any impact on the proportion of conceptions ending as spontaneous abortions or ectopic pregnancies. There was a significant drop in the proportion of pregnancies ending as induced abortions during the year after the accident compared with the year before. However, due to some variation during this year, it is difficult to draw any definite conclusions concerning the impact of the accident on induced abortions in this county. The proportion of pregnancies ending as births increased significantly during the year after the Chernobyl accident compared with the year before. 22 refs., 1 tab

  17. A Simplified Approach to Estimate the Urban Expressway Capacity after Traffic Accidents Using a Micro-Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the decomposition of the evolution processes of the urban expressway capacity after traffic accidents and the influence factors analysis, an approach for estimating the capacity has been proposed. Firstly, the approach introduces the Decision Tree ID algorithm, solves the accident delay time of different accident types by the Information Gain Value, and determines congestion dissipation time by the Traffic Flow Wave Theory. Secondly, taking the accident delay time as the observation cycle, the maximum number of the vehicles through the accident road per unit time was considered as its capacity. Finally, the attenuation simulation of the capacity for different accident types was calculated by the VISSIM software. The simulation results suggest that capacity attenuation of vehicle anchor is minimal and the rate is 30.074%; the next is vehicles fire, rear-end, and roll-over, and the rate is 38.389%, 40.204%, and 43.130%, respectively; the capacity attenuation of vehicle collision is the largest, and the rate is 50.037%. Moreover, the further research shows that the accident delay time is proportional to congestion dissipation time, time difference, and the ratio between them, but it is an inverse relationship with the residual capacity of urban expressway.

  18. Application of the accident management information needs methodology to a severe accident sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, L.W.; Hanson, D.J.; Nelson, W.R.; Solberg, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is conducting an Accident Management Research Program that emphasizes the application of severe accident research results to enhance the capability of plant operating personnel to effectively manage severe accidents. A methodology to identify and assess the information needs of the operating staff of a nuclear power plant during a severe accident has been developed as part of the research program designed to resolve this issue. The methodology identifies the information needs of the plant personnel during a wide range of accident conditions, the existing plant measurements capable of supplying these information needs and what, if any minor additions to instrument and display systems would enhance the capability to manage accidents, known limitations on the capability of these measurements to function properly under the conditions that will be present during a wide range of severe accidents, and areas in which the information systems could mislead plant personnel. This paper presents an application of this methodology to a severe accident sequence to demonstrate its use in identifying the information which is available for management of the event. The methodology has been applied to a severe accident sequence in a Pressurized Water Reactor with a large dry containment. An examination of the capability of the existing measurements was then performed to determine whether the information needs can be supplied

  19. The preparation of tourists to the ski sports tours in a limited time in order to prevent injuries and accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Toporkov

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: compare indicators of testing tourist skiers at different stages of the preparatory period to ski sports hike of third grade. Determine the effectiveness of training programs created to the tourists Categorical ski sports to prevent injuries and accidents in a limited time. Material: The study involved 13 people aged from 21 to 65 (4 women and 9 men with different experiences of hiking trails and various levels of total tourist preparedness. Results: The test results obtained before beginning the process of preparation are treated upon its completion, and immediately after passing categorical hike. In practice, the effectiveness of the proposed training programs of tourists to ski sports tours is proved. Conclusions : The created program can be recommended to tourist clubs, associations and organizations as the base in preparation for ski sports campaigns for the prevention of accidents and injuries.

  20. Impact of Sodium Chloride and Heat on Survival Time of Linguatula Serrata Nymphs in vitro: An Experimental Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hajimohammadi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Linguatula serrata is a zoonotic parasite, belonging to the class Pentastomida. The major aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of sodium chloride (NaCl and heat on survival time of Linguatula serrata nymphs. Materials & Methods: Thirty nymphs (10 in triplicate were separately transferred to plastic tubes, containing different concentrations of NaCl solution (2%, 5% and 10%. Meanwhile, 30 nymphs in tubes containing Phosphate Buffer Saline (PBS were separately treated by +50°C, +60°C and +72°C. As control group, thirty nymphs were stored in PBS at +4°C. The effects of different conditions on survival time of the nymphs were evaluated by observing their motility in different periods of time. Results: The survival time of the nymphs stored in 10% NaCl solution was too short and all of them were dead after 3 hours. But the other ones maintained in 2% NaCl solution were significantly more resistant (p<0.05 and were survived for 2 days. All the nymphs pertaining to each +60°C and +72°C treatments were found dead after first 5-minute storage interval; the nymphs stored at +50°C died totally after 20 minutes. The nymphs maintained in PBS at +4°C (control group showed the longest survival time (p<0.05; all of them were alive until day 4 and the last ones died on day 34. Conclusion: It is concluded that salting and heating have significant parasiticidal effects on L. serrata nymphs and could be used as disinfecting methods in processing of meat products especially liver. However, refrigeration at +4°C increases the resistance of the nymphs in meat products and therefore might endanger the food safety.

  1. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O.; Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  2. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O. [CEA Grenoble, 38 (France). Dept. de Thermohydraulique et de Physique; Creach, V.; Dufeil, Ph. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France); Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F. [Electricite de France, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  3. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 2/5. Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-08-01

    Technical Volume 1 of this report has described what happened during the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP). This volume begins (Section 2.1) with a review of how the design basis of the site for external events was assessed initially and then reassessed over the life of the NPP. The section also describes the physical changes that were made to the units as a result. The remainder of the volume describes the treatment of beyond design basis events in the safety assessment of the site, the accident management provisions, the effectiveness of regulatory programmes, human and organizational factors and the safety culture, and the role of operating experience. Further background information is contained in three annexes included on the CD-ROM of this Technical Volume which describe analytical investigations of the accident along with information on topics such as system performance, defence in depth and severe accident phenomena. Section 2.2 provides an assessment of the systems that failed, resulting in a failure to maintain the fundamental safety functions in Units 1–3, which were in operation at the time of the tsunami and in which the reactor pressure vessels (RPV) and containment vessels failed. The section also describes Units 4-6, which were shut down at the time of the tsunami, and the site’s central spent fuel storage facility. Section 2.3 discusses the probabilistic and deterministic safety assessments of beyond design basis accidents (BDBAs) that had been performed for the plant and the insights from these assessments that had led to changes in the plant’s design. The section pays particular attention to the assessment of extreme natural hazards, such as the one which led to the total loss of AC power supply on the site. The additional loss of DC power supply in Units 1 and 2 played a key role in the progression of the accident because it impeded the diagnosis of plant conditions and made the operators unaware of the status of

  4. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  5. PWR pressure vessel integrity during overcooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheverton, R.D.

    1981-01-01

    Pressurized water reactors are susceptible to certain types of hypothetical accidents that under some circumstances, including operation of the reactor beyond a critical time in its life, could result in failure of the pressure vessel as a result of propagation of crack-like defects in the vessel wall. The accidents of concern are those that result in thermal shock to the vessel while the vessel is subjected to internal pressure. Such accidents, referred to as pressurized thermal shock or overcooling accidents (OCA), include a steamline break, small-break LOCA, turbine trip followed by stuck-open bypass valves, the 1978 Rancho Seco and the TMI accidents and many other postulated and actual accidents. The source of cold water for the thermal shock is either emergency core coolant or the normal primary-system coolant. ORNL performed fracture-mechanics calculations for a steamline break in 1978 and for a turbine-trip case in 1980 and concluded on the basis of the results that many more such calculations would be required. To meet the expected demand in a realistic way a computer code, OCA-I, was developed that accepts primary-system temperature and pressure transients as input and then performs one-dimensional thermal and stress analyses for the wall and a corresponding fracture-mechanics analysis for a long axial flaw. The code is briefly described, and its use in both generic and specific plant analyses is discussed

  6. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.; Ellison, Paul B.; Francis, M.; Gabor, John D.; Gauntt, R.; Henry, C.; Linthicum, R.; Luangdilok, W.; Lutz, R.; Paik, C.; Plys, M.; Rabiti, Cristian; Rempe, J.; Robb, K.; Wachowiak, R.

    2015-01-01

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  7. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, Mitchell T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bunt, R. [Southern Nuclear, Atlanta, GA (United States); Corradini, M. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul B. [GE Power and Water, Duluth, GA (United States); Francis, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gabor, John D. [Erin Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Gauntt, R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Linthicum, R. [Exelon Corp., Chicago, IL (United States); Luangdilok, W. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Lutz, R. [PWR Owners Group (PWROG); Paik, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Plys, M. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rempe, J. [Rempe and Associates LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Robb, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wachowiak, R. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knovville, TN (United States)

    2015-01-31

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  8. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, H S; Jeon, M H; Cho, N J. and others [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-01-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts.

  9. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, H. S.; Jeon, M. H.; Cho, N. J. and others

    1992-01-01

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts

  10. Analysis of accidents in nine Iranian gas refineries: 2007-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrdad, R; Bolouri, A; Shakibmanesh, A R

    2013-10-01

    Occupational accidents are one of the major health hazards in industries and associated with high mortality, morbidity, spiritual damage and economic losses in the world. To determine the incidence of occupational accidents in 9 Iranian gas refineries between March 2007 and February 2011. Data on all occupational accidents occurred between March 2007 and February 2011, as well as other possible associated variables including time of accident, whether the accident was due to a personal or systemic fault, type of accident and its outcomes, age and gender of the victim, the injured parts of the body, job experience, and type of employment, were extracted from HSE reports and notes of health care services. Based on these data, we calculated the incidence rate of accidents and assessed the associated factors. During the 5 studied years, 1129 accidents have been recorded. The incidence of fatal accidents was 1.64 per 100 000 and of nonfatal accidents was 1857 per 100 000 workers per year. 99.4% of injured workers were male. The mean±SD age of injured people was 29.6±7.3 years. Almost 70% of injured workers aged under 30 years. The mean±SD job experience was 5.3±5.3 years. Accidents occurred more commonly around 10:00. More than 60% of accidents happened between 8:00 and 15:00. July had the highest incidence rate. The most common type of accident was being struck by an object (48%). More than 94% of accidents are caused by personal rather than systemic faults. Hands and wrists were the most common injured parts and involved in more than one-third of accidents. 70% of injured workers needed medical treatment and returned to work after primary treatment. The pattern of occupational accidents in Iranian gas refineries is similar to other previous reports in many ways. The incidence did not change significantly over the study period. Establishment of an online network for precise registration, notification and meticulous data collection seems necessary.

  11. Our reflections and lessons from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Takeshi; Sawada, Takashi; Yagawa, Genki

    2017-01-01

    In order to investigate the cause of the accident that began on March 11, 2011 at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, the Science Council of Japan set an investigation committee, the 'Sub-Committee on Fukushima Nuclear Accident (SCFNA)' under the Comprehensive Synthetic Engineering Committee. The committee has published a record entitled 'Reflections and Lessons from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, (1st report)'. There are still many items about the accident for which the details are not clear. It is important to discuss the reasons why the severe accident could not be prevented and the possibilities that there might have been other proper operations and accident management to prevent or lessen the severity of the accident than those adopted at the time. SCFNA decided to continue its investigation by setting up our working group called the 'Working Group on Fukushima Nuclear Accident'. Our working group have published 'Reflection and Lessons from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident (2nd Report)'. We investigated the issues of specific units. Unit 1 were validity of the operation of the isolation condenser, whether or not a loss of coolant accident occurred due to a failure of the cooling piping system by the seismic ground motion, and the cause of the loss of the emergency AC power supply, Unit 2 was the reason why a large amount of radioactive materials was emitted to the environment although the reactor building did not explode, Unit 3 was the reasons why the operator stopped running the high pressure coolant injection system, and Units 1 to 3 was validity of the venting operation. These items were considered to be the key issues in these units that would have prevented progression to the severe accident. (author)

  12. Family presence preference when patients are receiving resuscitation in an accident and emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Maria S Y; Pang, Samantha M C

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a report of a study to illuminate the experience of family members whose relatives survived the resuscitation in an accident and emergency department, and their preferences with regard to being present. Family presence during resuscitation can offer benefits to both patient and family members, and large healthcare organizations support and recommend offering the option for their presence. However, many staff believe that this is too distressing or traumatic for families and that they would interfere with the resuscitation process. An interpretive phenomenological approach was used to collect data in 2007-2008 with 18 family members of patients who survived life-sustaining interventions in an accident and emergency department in Hong Kong. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim for thematic analysis and verified with the participants in second interviews. None of the family members was present in resuscitation room during the life-sustaining interventions, and five entered the room after the patients' condition was stable. The majority indicated a strong preference to be present if given the option. Three interrelated themes emerged: (i) emotional connectedness, (ii) knowing the patient, and (iii) perceived (in)appropriateness, with 10 subthemes representing affective, rational and contextual determinants of family presence preferences. The interplay of these determinants and how they contributed to strong or weak preference for family presence was analysed. Variations among the contributing determinants to each family member's preference to be present were revealed. Appropriate nursing interventions, policy and guidelines should be developed to meet individualized needs during such critical and life-threatening moments in accident and emergency departments. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Joni K.

    2013-01-01

    The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents. NASA project management desired this information regarding distinct subgroups of atmospheric hazards, in order to better focus their research portfolio. A seven category expansion of Kaplan's turbulence categories was developed, which included wake turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, clear air turbulence, cloud turbulence, convective turbulence, thunderstorm without mention of turbulence, and low altitude wind shear, microburst or turbulence (with no mention of thunderstorms).More than 800 accidents from flights based in the United States during 1987-2008 were selected from a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database. Accidents were selected for inclusion in this study if turbulence, thunderstorm, wind shear or microburst was considered either a cause or a factor in the accident report, and each accident was assigned to only one hazard category. This report summarizes the differences between the categories in terms of factors such as flight operations category, aircraft engine type, the accident's geographic location and time of year, degree of injury to aircraft occupants, aircraft damage, age and certification of the pilot and the phase of flight at the time of the accident.

  14. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

    1987-11-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  15. Nuclear power plant Severe Accident Research Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larkins, J.T.; Cunningham, M.A.

    1983-01-01

    The Severe Accident Research Plan (SARP) will provide technical information necessary to support regulatory decisions in the severe accident area for existing or planned nuclear power plants, and covers research for the time period of January 1982 through January 1986. SARP will develop generic bases to determine how safe the plants are and where and how their level of safety ought to be improved. The analysis to address these issues will be performed using improved probabilistic risk assessment methodology, as benchmarked to more exact data and analysis. There are thirteen program elements in the plan and the work is phased in two parts, with the first phase being completed in early 1984, at which time an assessment will be made whether or not any major changes will be recommended to the Commission for operating plants to handle severe accidents. Additionally at this time, all of the thirteen program elements in Chapter 5 will be reviewed and assessed in terms of how much additional work is necessary and where major impacts in probabilistic risk assessment might be achieved. Confirmatory research will be carried out in phase II to provide additional assurance on the appropriateness of phase I decisions. Most of this work will be concluded by early 1986

  16. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  17. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  18. Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

    2018-04-01

    In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

  19. [A monitoring system for work-related accidents in Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, Ricardo; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia; de Medeiros, Maria Angélica Tavares; Gonçalves, Cláudia Giglio de Oliveira; Bragantini, Clarice Aparecida; Varolla, Antenor J; Celso, Stephan

    2005-01-01

    The authors report on the development of a work accident monitoring system in Piracicaba, São Paulo State, Brazil, with the following characteristics: information feeding the system is obtained in real time directly from accident treatment centers; the system has universal monitoring, covering all work-related accidents in Piracicaba, regardless of the nature of the worker's employment conditions, place of work, or place of residence; health surveillance and promotion of health initiatives are triggered by identification of sentinel events; spatial distribution analysis of work-related accidents is a basic tool in designing accident awareness strategies and accident prevention policies. The system was implemented in November 2003 and by October 2004 had identified 5,320 work-related accidents, or a 3.8% annual proportional incidence of work-related accidents in the municipal area. We illustrate spatial analysis of registered work-related accidents and present a detailed investigation of one example of a serious accident.

  20. Review of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connelly, J.W.; Storr, G.J.

    1989-01-01

    Two types of severe reactor accidents - loss of coolant or coolant flow and transient overpower (TOP) accidents - are described and compared. Accidents in research reactors are discussed. The 1961 SL1 accident in the US is used as an illustration as it incorporates the three features usually combined in a severe accident - a design flaw or flaws in the system, a circumvention of safety circuits or procedures, and gross operator error. The SL1 reactor, the reactivity accident and the following fuel-coolant interaction and steam explosion are reviewed. 3 figs

  1. Driving behaviors and on-duty road accidents: a French case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, Emmanuel; Chiron, Mireille; Davezies, Philippe; Bergeret, Alain; Charbotel, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    A case-control study was carried out to identify driving behaviors associated with the risk of on-duty road accident and to compare driving behaviors according to the type of journey (on duty, commuting, and private) for on-duty road accident victims. Cases were recruited from the Rhône Road Trauma Registry between January 2004 and October 2005 and were on duty at the time of the accident. Control subjects were recruited from the electoral rolls of the case subjects' constituencies of residence. Cases' and controls' driving behavior data were collected by self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression was performed to identify behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents, taking into account age, sex, place of residence, road accident risk exposure, socio-occupational category, and type of road user. A second analysis focused specifically on the case subjects, comparing their self-assessed usual behaviors according to the type of journey. Significant factors for multivariate analysis of on-duty road accidents were female gender, history of on-duty road accidents during the previous 10 years, severe time pressure at work, and driving a vehicle not belonging to the driver. On-duty road accident victims reported behavioral risk factors more frequently in relation to driving for work than driving for private reasons or commuting: nonsystematic seat belt use, cell phone use at least once daily while driving, and history of accidents with injury during the previous 10 years. This study provides knowledge on behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents and differences in behavior according to the type of journey for subjects who have been on-duty road accident victims. These results will be useful for the design of on-duty road risk prevention.

  2. Historical aspects of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mettler, F.A. Jr.; Ricks, R.C.

    1990-01-01

    Radiation accidents are extremely rare events; however, the last two years have witnessed the largest radiation accidents in both the eastern and western hemispheres. It is the purpose of this chapter to review how radiation accidents are categorized, examine the temporal changes in frequency and severity, give illustrative examples of several types of radiation accidents, and finally, to describe the various registries for radiation accidents

  3. Health consequences [of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramoutar, S.

    1996-01-01

    The World Health Organisation Conference on the Health Consequences of the Chernobyl and Other Radiological Accidents, held in Geneva last November, is reported. The lack of representation from the civil nuclear industry led often to one-sided debates instigated by the anti-nuclear lobbies present. Thyroid cancer in children as a result of the Chernobyl accident received particular attention. In Belarus, 400 cases have been noted, 220 in Ukraine and 60 in the Russian Federation. All have been treated with a high degree of success. The incidence of this cancer would be expected to follow the fallout path as the main exposure route was ingestion of contaminated foods and milk products. It was noted that the only way to confirm causality was if those children born since the accident failed to show the same increased incidence. Explanations were offered for the particular susceptibility of children to thyroid cancer following exposure to radiation. Another significant cause of concern was the health consequences to clean-up workers in radiological accidents. The main factor is psychological problems from the stress of knowing that they have received high radiation doses. A dramatic increase in psychological disorders has occurred in the Ukraine over the past ten years and this is attributed to stress generated by the Chernobyl accident, compounded by the inadequacy of the public advice offered at the time and the socio-economic uncertainties accompanying the breakup of the former USSR. (UK)

  4. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, ptraffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, ptraffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  5. Survival times with and without tube feeding in patients with dementia or psychiatric diseases in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Keiko; Hirayama, Keisuke; Hirao, Akihiko; Kondo, Keiko; Hayashi, Hideki; Kadota, Koichi; Asaba, Hiroyuki; Ishizu, Hideki; Nakata, Kenji; Kurisu, Kairi; Oshima, Etsuko; Yokota, Osamu; Yamada, Norihito; Terada, Seishi

    2017-11-01

    It is widely supposed that there has been no evidence of increased survival in patients with advanced dementia receiving enteral tube feeding. However, more than a few studies have reported no harmful outcome from tube feeding in dementia patients compared to in patients without dementia. This was a retrospective study. Nine psychiatric hospitals in Okayama Prefecture participated in this survey. All inpatients fulfilling the entry criteria were evaluated. All subjects suffered from difficulty with oral intake. Attending physicians thought that the patients could not live without long-term artificial nutrition. The physicians decided whether to make use of long-term artificial nutrition between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 185 patients. Their mean age was 76.6 ± 11.4 years. Of all subjects, patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 78) formed the biggest group, schizophrenia patients (n = 44) the second, and those with vascular dementia (n = 30) the third. The median survival times were 711 days for patients with tube feeding and 61 days for patients without tube feeding. In a comparison different types of tube feeding, median survival times were 611 days for patients with a nasogastric tube and more than 1000 days for those with a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube. Patients with tube feeding survived longer than those without tube feeding, even among dementia patients. This study suggests that enteral nutrition for patients with dementia prolongs survival. Additionally, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube feeding may be safer than nasogastric tube feeding among patients in psychiatric hospitals. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  6. Enhancing AP1000 reactor accident management capabilities for long term accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Pingting; Liu Mengying; Duan Chengjie; Liao Yehong

    2015-01-01

    Passive safety actions are considered as main measures under severe accident in AP1000 power plant. However, risk is still existed. According to PSA, several probable scenarios for AP1000 nuclear power plant are analyzed in this paper with MAAP the severe accident analysis code. According to the analysis results, several deficiencies of AP1000 severe accident management are found. The long term cooling and containment depressurization capability for AP1000 power plant appear to be most important factors under such accidents. Then, several temporary strategies for AP1000 power plant are suggested, including PCCWST temporary water supply strategy after 72h, temporary injection strategy for IRWST, hydrogen relief action in fuel building, which would improve the safety of AP1000 power plant. At last, assessments of effectiveness for these strategies are performed, and the results are compared with analysis without these strategies. The comparisons showed that correct actions of these strategies would effectively prevent the accident process of AP1000 power plant. (author)

  7. Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, Kazuki

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

  8. The impact of chemotherapy and its timing on survival in malignant peritoneal mesothelioma treated with complete debulking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naffouje, Samer A; Tulla, Kiara A; Salti, George I

    2018-04-12

    The current standard of treatment for malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPM) is cytoreductive surgery when the disease distribution is favorable. The role of chemotherapy, as an adjunct to surgery, remains unclear. The national database of mesothelioma was used to identify MPM patients who were treated with curative intent. Patients were divided into treatment groups: (1) chemotherapy only, (2) surgery only, (3) neoadjuvant chemotherapy + surgery, and (4) surgery + adjuvant chemotherapy. A negative control group of patients who did not receive any treatment was added (group 0). Totally, 1740 patients were included. Mean age was 63.04 ± 14.58 and 60.7% were males. The patients' distribution into the treatment groups was 604, 684, 169, 55, and 228 patients in groups 0-4, respectively, with a median survival of 3.61 ± 0.37, 11.10 ± 0.73, 57.41 ± 11.91, 52.30 ± 7.20, and 55.00 ± 9.19 months. The addition of chemotherapy, in any setting, to surgery provided an improved survival at 1 year (p = 0.006). This survival benefit ceased at the 2-, 3-, and 5-year checkpoints. The multivariate analysis identified age, sarcomatoid/biphasic histologies, nodal and distant metastasis, and offering no treatment or chemotherapy only as poor prognostic factors for overall survival. No difference in overall survival was noted with the addition of chemotherapy to complete debulking regardless of the timing. Complete debulking remains the standard treatment for MPM. The addition of systemic chemotherapy provides a short-term survival improvement at 1 year only and was similar whether given in the neoadjuvant or adjuvant setting. Nevertheless, it did not add a survival benefit beyond the 1-year time point.

  9. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

  10. Does prehospital time affect survival of major trauma patients where there is no prehospital care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S B Dharap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Survival after major trauma is considered to be time dependent. Efficient prehospital care with rapid transport is the norm in developed countries, which is not available in many lower middle and low-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prehospital time and primary treatment given on survival of major trauma patients in a setting without prehospital care. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out in a university hospital in Mumbai, from January to December 2014. The hospital has a trauma service but no organized prehospital care or defined interhospital transfer protocols. All patients with life- and/or limb-threatening injuries were included in the study. Injury time and arrival time were noted and the interval was defined as “prehospital time” for the directly arriving patients and as “time to tertiary care” for those transferred. Primary outcome measure was in-hospital death (or discharge. Results: Of 1181 patients, 352 were admitted directly from the trauma scene and 829 were transferred from other hospitals. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, mechanism and mode of injury, shock, Glasgow Coma Score <9, Injury Severity Score ≥16, need for intubation, and ventilatory support on arrival; but neither with prehospital time nor with time to tertiary care. Transferred patients had a significantly higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.869, 95% confidence interval = 1.233–2.561, P = 0.005 despite fewer patients with severe injury. Two hundred and ninety-four (35% of these needed airway intervention while 108 (13% needed chest tube insertion on arrival to the trauma unit suggesting inadequate care at primary facility. Conclusion: Mortality is not associated with prehospital time but with transfers from primary care; probably due to deficient care. To improve survival after major trauma, enhancement of resources for resuscitation and capacity building of on

  11. The Chernobyl accident consequences; Consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-04-01

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  12. Level of health of cleaners taking part in the Chernobyl accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margine, L.; Vicol, C.

    2009-01-01

    During the period of 1986-1988 about 3,000 Moldova citizens took part in Chernobyl NPP accident consequences elimination. In this article the level of morbidity, disability and mortality among Chernobyl accident consequences liquidation participants is analyzed. As a result of analysis of medical documentation and statistical data was revealed that the sickness rate among disaster fighters 2,3 times higher than general sickness rate of the population in Moldova. Disability in this category is at average of 73 per cent as opposed to the overall index for the population of Moldova - 4,4%, this means it is 17 times higher. Mortality among the participants of the accident at Chernobyl NPP is 6 times higher of general data. The participants of the breakdown elimination of Chernobyl accident consequences are equal in their right with the participants and invalids of war and with the disabled workers. Medical and social security of this group is regulated by the legislation of the Republic of Moldova

  13. Road Traffic Accidents: A Wild Life Exterminator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiseh Kavandi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Once commonly traced in various parts of Southwest Asia, the Iranian cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, a disparagingly endangered cheetah subspecies, seems to have been driven to extinction. Restricted to its only remained appropriate habitat, The Iranian cheetah has barely survived in Iran's Dasht-e Kavir plateau. Throughout the 1970s, about 200 cheetahs were estimated to live in seven protected areas in Iran (1. Nevertheless, the figures dramatically declined to 50 and 60 individuals in 2005–2006. Over ten years, Iranian researchers captured images of 76 individual cheetahs using 80 camera traps implanted throughout the Dasht-e Kavir plateau (2. Disappointingly in 2011, camera traps captured only 20 individuals in the protected areas (2, 3. What adds insult to the injury is knowing the fact that two-thirds of cheetah deaths in 2012–2013 were due to road accidents(4.      Beside the human fatalities and injuries, road traffic accidents remain as serious threats for wildlife. Although numerous measures are taken to hinder the extinction of this subspecies, efforts should be concentrated on long-term planning at both national and international levels to raise awareness and promote willingness to address this ongoing yet controllable damage.

  14. Relationship between Recent Flight Experience and Pilot Error General Aviation Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Sarah J.

    Aviation insurance agents and fixed-base operation (FBO) owners use recent flight experience, as implied by the 90-day rule, to measure pilot proficiency in physical airplane skills, and to assess the likelihood of a pilot error accident. The generally accepted premise is that more experience in a recent timeframe predicts less of a propensity for an accident, all other factors excluded. Some of these aviation industry stakeholders measure pilot proficiency solely by using time flown within the past 90, 60, or even 30 days, not accounting for extensive research showing aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness training decrease the likelihood of a pilot error accident. In an effort to reduce the pilot error accident rate, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has seen the need to shift pilot training emphasis from proficiency in physical airplane skills to aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness skills. However, current pilot training standards still focus more on the former than on the latter. The relationship between pilot error accidents and recent flight experience implied by the FAA's 90-day rule has not been rigorously assessed using empirical data. The intent of this research was to relate recent flight experience, in terms of time flown in the past 90 days, to pilot error accidents. A quantitative ex post facto approach, focusing on private pilots of single-engine general aviation (GA) fixed-wing aircraft, was used to analyze National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident investigation archival data. The data were analyzed using t-tests and binary logistic regression. T-tests between the mean number of hours of recent flight experience of tricycle gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (TPE) and non-pilot error accidents (TNPE), t(202) = -.200, p = .842, and conventional gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (CPE) and non-pilot error accidents (CNPE), t(111) = -.271, p = .787, indicate there is no

  15. A Study on an Accident Diagnosis Methodology Using Influence Diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyungmin; Jae, Moosung

    2006-01-01

    For nuclear power plants, EOPs help operators to diagnose, control and mitigate accidents. However, it is very difficult that operators follow appropriate EOPs for accidents with similar symptoms in a given short period of time. Also EOPs are very complicated to follow and have many procedures to do. Therefore, if operators cannot diagnose correctly, the accident would become severe. Correct diagnostic action depends on the decision making ability of operators. Therefore, the methodology that can diagnose accidents quickly and help operators follow appropriate procedures should be developed. Due to the complexity of the tasks, it is very important to reduce human errors during diagnostic actions. In this study, to minimize human errors an accident diagnosis model has been constructed based on EOPs, accident symptoms and component reliabilities. For construction of model, Influence Diagrams have been applied. This decision-making tool consists of nodes and arcs. It is applicable to complicated situations, such as those required for developing strategies for managing severe accidents in nuclear power plants. And quantification of model has performed with total probability and Bayesian theorem. Through this quantification, the results should help operators diagnose complex situations

  16. Survived ileocecal blowout from compressed air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Marco; Kolbus, Frank; Dressler, Jan; Lessig, Rüdiger

    2011-03-01

    Industrial accidents with compressed air entering the gastro-intestinal tract often run fatally. The pressures usually over-exceed those used by medical applications such as colonoscopy and lead to vast injuries of the intestines with high mortality. The case described in this report is of a 26-year-old man who was harmed by compressed air that entered through the anus. He survived because of fast emergency operation. This case underlines necessity of explicit instruction considering hazards handling compressed air devices to maintain safety at work. Further, our observations support the hypothesis that the mucosa is the most elastic layer of the intestine wall.

  17. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankowski, M.W.

    1987-01-01

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  18. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankowski, M.W.

    1988-01-01

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery management concentrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk, and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management

  19. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (Ptime. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  20. Accidents in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1989-01-01

    The nuclear industry perspective and the public perspective on big nuclear accidents and leukaemia near nuclear sites are discussed. The industry perspective is that big accidents are so unlikely as to be virtually impossible and that leukaemia is not specifically associated with nuclear installations. Clusters of cancer with statistical significance occur in major cities. The public perspective is coloured by a prejudice and myth: the fear of radiation. The big nuclear accident is seen therefore as much more unacceptable than any other big accident. Risks associated with Sizewell-B nuclear station and the liquid gas depot at Canvey Island are discussed. The facts and figures are presented as tables and graphs. Given conflicting interpretations of the leukaemia problem the public inclines towards the more pessimistic view. (author)

  1. A PC based multi-CPU severe accident simulation trainer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankowski, M.W.; Bienarz, P.P.; Sartmadjiev, A.D.

    2004-01-01

    MELSIM Severe Accident Simulation Trainer is a personal computer based system being developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency and Risk Management Associates, Inc. for the purpose of training the operators of nuclear power stations. It also serves for evaluating accident management strategies as well as assessing complex interfaces between emergency operating procedures and accident management guidelines. The system is being developed for the Soviet designed WWER-440/Model 213 reactor and it is plant specific. The Bohunice V2 power station in the Slovak Republic has been selected for trial operation of the system. The trainer utilizes several CPUs working simultaneously on different areas of simulation. Detailed plant operation displays are provided on colour monitor mimic screens which show changing plant conditions in approximate real-time. Up to 28 000 curves can be plotted on a separate monitor as the MELSIM program proceeds. These plots proceed concurrently with the program, and time specific segments can be recalled for review. A benchmarking (limited in scope) against well validated thermal-hydraulic codes and selected plant accident data (WWER-440/213 Rovno NPP, Ukraine) has been initiated. Preliminary results are presented and discussed. (author)

  2. Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

    2013-06-01

    Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  3. Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Zolala

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  4. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  5. Safety evaluation of accident-tolerant FCM fueled core with SiC-coated zircalloy cladding for design-basis-accidents and beyond DBAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chun, Ji-Han, E-mail: chunjh@kaeri.re.kr; Lim, Sung-Won; Chung, Bub-Dong; Lee, Won-Jae

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Thermal conductivity model of the FCM fuel was developed and adopted in the MARS. • Scoping analysis for candidate FCM FAs was performed to select feasible FA. • Preliminary safety criteria for FCM fuel and SiC/Zr cladding were set up. • Enhanced safety margin and accident tolerance for FCM-SiC/Zr core were demonstrated. - Abstract: The FCM fueled cores proposed as an accident tolerant concept is assessed against the design-basis-accident (DBA) and the beyond-DBA (BDBA) scenarios using MARS code. A thermal conductivity model of FCM fuel is incorporated in the MARS code to take into account the effects of irradiation and temperature that was recently measured by ORNL. Preliminary analyses regarding the initial stored energy and accident tolerant performance were carried out for the scopi