WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Survivability Versus Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2014-01-01

    Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

  2. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2015-01-01

    This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

  3. Nuclear accidents and thyroid - a stitch in time saves nine!

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The thyroid is a hormone secreting gland located superficially in the neck anterior to the trachea and below the thyroid cartilage. The normal adult gland weighs 15-20 g. Thyroid needs iodine to produce hormones that regulate body's energy and metabolism. It absorbs available iodine from the bloodstream. It cannot distinguish between stable iodine and radioactive iodine. In the event of nuclear accident huge amount of radioactive iodine (Iodine-131) will be released in the atmosphere. This will contaminate soil, plants, vegetables, water bodies etc. People residing in the vicinity will get radioactive iodine by inhalation and consuming contaminated food, water and milk. This radioactive iodine will saturate the thyroid gland. In neonates, infants and young children the thyroid gland is one of the most radiosensitive parts of the body. When thyroid cells absorb too much radioactive iodine, it can cause thyroid cancer over several years after the exposure. Neonates, infants and young children are at highest risk of developing thyroid cancer at a later stage in life. Incidence of thyroid cancer goes up in the native population after the nuclear reactor accident. Most of the thyroid cancers are papillary carcinomas and usually amenable to treatment with 10 year survival rate. It is believed that post nuclear accident carcinomas are more aggressive as compared to the usual papillary ca. Thyroid gland is at greatest risk from radioactive iodine and potassium iodide can protect the gland, if given as per the recommended dose schedule. The Chernobyl reactor accident and events around that time have proven beyond doubt that potassium iodide protects the gland. Thus, its proper use in rescue workers and survivors could effectively protect thyroid gland and prevent thyroid cancer. (author)

  4. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  5. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident

  6. Reaction time of drivers who caused road traffic accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Predrag

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Material and methods. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. Results. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Discussion. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time, but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Conclusion. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.

  7. Time varying effects in survival analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2002-01-01

    additive risk model; counting process; proportional hazards model; semi-parametric models; survival data; time-varying effects; nonparametric testing......additive risk model; counting process; proportional hazards model; semi-parametric models; survival data; time-varying effects; nonparametric testing...

  8. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  9. Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

  10. Time-dependent accident sequences including human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During an accident, transitions between plant states can occur due to operator intervention and the failure of systems while running. The latter cause of transition is much less likely than the first, which includes errors of commission and omission as well as recovery of lost functions. A methodology has been developed to model these transitions in the time domain. As an example, it is applied to the analysis of Three-Mile-Island-type accidents. Statistical evidence is collected and used in assessing the frequency of stuck-open power-operated relief valves at Babcock and Wilcox plants as well as the frequency of misdiagnosis. Statistical data are also used in modeling the timing of operator actions during the accident, i.e., turning off and on the high-pressure injection system and closing the block valves

  11. Predicting Mean Survival Time from Reported Median Survival Time for Cancer Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lousdal, Mette L; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Møller, Bjørn;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mean duration of survival following treatment is a prerequisite for cost-effectiveness analyses used for assessing new and costly life-extending therapies for cancer patients. Mean survival time is rarely reported due to censoring imposed by limited follow-up time, whereas the median...... survival time often is. The empirical relationship between mean and median survival time for cancer patients is not known. AIM: To derive the empirical associations between mean and median survival time across cancer types and to validate this empirical prediction approach and compare it with the standard...... approach of fitting a Weibull distribution. METHODS: We included all patients in Norway diagnosed from 1960 to 1999 with one of the 13 most common solid tumor cancers until emigration, death, or 31 December 2011, whichever came first. Observed median, restricted mean, and mean survival times were obtained...

  12. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuuli Lahti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.

  13. Timing of core damage states following severe accidents for the CANDU reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper documents the analytical methodology used to evaluate severe accident sequences. The relevant thermal-mechanical phenomena and the mathematical approach used in calculating the timing of the accident progression are described. An example of a specific accident scenario is provided in order to illustrate the application of the severe accident progression methodology. The postulated sever accidents analyzed mainly differ in the timing to reach and progress through each defined 'core damage state'. (author)

  14. Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    2004-01-01

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis......censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis...

  15. Regression analysis of restricted mean survival time based on pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations......censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations...

  16. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  17. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITY TO AVOID A RUNNING-DOW ACCIDENT TIMELY BRAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarayev, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.

  18. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyojoon Jeong

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents.

  19. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    OpenAIRE

    Hyojoon Jeong; Misun Park; Haesun Jeong; Wontae Hwang; Eunhan Kim; Moonhee Han

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radio...

  20. A space-time multivariate Bayesian model to analyse road traffic accidents by severity

    OpenAIRE

    Boulieri, A; Liverani, S; Hoogh, K. de; Blangiardo, M.

    2016-01-01

    The paper investigates the dependences between levels of severity of road traffic accidents, accounting at the same time for spatial and temporal correlations. The study analyses road traffic accidents data at ward level in England over the period 2005–2013. We include in our model multivariate spatially structured and unstructured effects to capture the dependences between severities, within a Bayesian hierarchical formulation. We also include a temporal component to capture the time effects...

  1. Suitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    桑修文; 赵宏伟; 等

    1999-01-01

    Objective To explore sutitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals to decrease adverse effect caused by delayed therapy.Methods:In recent 10 years we have treated 154 cases of maxillofacial trauma by traffic accidents and their data were analyzed.Results:Early surgical therapy could be done in maxillofacial soft tissue trauma.The therapy of returning occlusion relation or temporary fixing was performed in bone fracture before porosis.Conclusions:For maxilloficial trauman and trauman of other parts caused by traffic accidents.early treatment should be done in order to decrease dysfunction and deformity caused by maxillofacial trauma.

  2. Indiana Emergent Bilingual Student Time to Reclassification: A Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, April M.; Morita-Mullaney, Trish; Singh, Malkeet

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we employed a discrete-time survival analysis model to examine Indiana emergent bilingual time to reclassification as fluent English proficient. The data consisted of five years of statewide English language proficiency scores. Indiana has a large and rapidly growing Spanish-speaking emergent bilingual population, and these students…

  3. Estimation of diver survival time in a lost bell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipton, M.J.; Franks, C. [Surrey Univ., Guildford (United Kingdom); Meneilly, G.S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Medicine; Mekjavic, I.B. [Simon Fraser University, Vancouver (Canada). Dept. of Kinesiology

    1997-04-01

    Mathematical models of the human thermoregulatory system have been used to make predictions of the likely survival of divers in a ``lost bell`` who can be exposed to very low ambient temperatures. The circumstances considered are not the most extreme but those where, partly by shivering, the individual can re-enter thermal balance. The ability accurately to predict the level and duration of metabolic heat production is critical for the estimation of survival time under these conditions. Limitations on the accuracy of current models arise from the lack of precision in modelling the intensity and duration of the metabolic (shivering) response. A different basis for predicting shivering endurance using the time to hypogylcaemia (blood glucose level less than 2.5 mmol/1) is proposed. This leads to predicted survival times ranging from 10 to over 24 hours for those individuals able to stabilise deep body temperature. This seems to be more consistent with the limited experimental data which exists than the 8-9 hours predicted by other models. In order to help maintain blood sugar levels, and hence metabolic heat production, it is recommended that emergency rations within bells should provide 500g of carbohydrate a day. (59 figures; 221 references). (UK)

  4. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heydari Seyed Taghi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran

  5. Real time analysis for atmospheric dispersions for Fukushima nuclear accident: Mobile phone based cloud computing assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Possible nuclear accident is simulated for the atmospheric contaminations. • The simulations results give the relative importance of the fallouts. • The cloud computing of IT is performed successfully. • One can prepare for the possible damages of such a NPP accident. • Some other variables can be considered in the modeling. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated by the system dynamics (SD) method. The non-linear complex algorithm could give the information about the hazardous material behavior in the case of nuclear accident. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The event sequence shows the scenario from earthquake to dispersion of the radionuclides. Then, the dispersion reaches two cities in Korea. The importance of the radioactive dispersion is related to the fast and reliable data processing, which could be accomplished by cloud computing concept. The values of multiplications for the wind, plume concentrations, and cloud computing factor are obtained. The highest value is 94.13 in the 206th day for Seoul. In Pusan, the highest value is 15.48 in the 219th day. The source is obtained as dispersion of radionuclide multiplied by 100. The real time safety assessment is accomplished by mobile phone

  6. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  7. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226Ra + 228Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment

  8. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Seyed Taghi Heydari; Amin Hoseinzadeh; Yaser Sarikhani; Arya Hedjazi; Mohammad Zarenezhad; Ghasem Moafian; Mohammad Reza Aghabeigi

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Fars Province of Iran.Methods:This study was conducted in Fars Province,Iran from November 22,2009 to November 21,2011.Victims'information consisted of age,sex,death toll involving drivers or passengers of cars,motorcycles and pedestrians,and site of injury etc.Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day,season of the year,lighting condition including sunrise,sunset,daytime and nighttime.Results:Atotal of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males,and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1) were studied regarding their autopsy records.There was a steady increase in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59.The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13,95% CI 1.85-2.44).The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer.Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59and midnight to 3:59,whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59.Conclusion:The high mortality rate ofRTAis a major public health problem in Fars Province.Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths.

  9. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  10. BY USING BLUETOOTH TECHNOLOGY AUTOMATIC VEHICLE ACCIDENT DETECTION & LOCALIZATION OF AUTOMOBILE

    OpenAIRE

    Nitin Thakre; Nitin Raut; Shyam Dubey; Abdulla Shaikh

    2014-01-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of fatalities in the world. An important indicator of survival rates after an accident is the time between the accident and when emergency medical personnel are dispatched to the location. Eliminating the time between when an accident occurs and when first responders are dispatched to the location decreases mortality rates by 6%. We propose an Android based application that location of the vehicle through an positive detectio...

  11. Aeromedical Lessons Learned from the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Mike

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an update on the Columbia accident response presented in 2005 with additional information that was not available at that time. It will provide information on the following topics: (1) medical response and Search and Rescue, (2) medico-legal issues associated with the accident, (3) the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team Report published in 2008, and (4) future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training.

  12. Intelligent GIS-Based Road Accident Analysis and Real-Time Monitoring Automated System using WiMAX/GPRS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Rodzi Mahmud

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has been a big concern for many people and government to reduce the amount of road accident specially in Malaysia since it could be a big threat to this country. Malaysian government has spent millions of money in order to reduce the number of accident occurrence through several modes of campaign. Unfortunately, from years to years the number keeps increasing. The lack of a comprehensive accident recording and analysis system in Malaysia can be effective in these kinds of problems. By making use of IRAS (Intelligent Road Accident System, the police would be control and manage whole accident events as a real-time monitoring system. This system exploits WiMAX and GPRS communications to connect to the server for transfer the specific data to the data center. This system can be used for a comprehensive intelligent GIS-based solution for accident analysis and management. The system is developed based on object and aspect oriented software design such as .NET technology.

  13. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  14. Semiparametric Methods to Contrast Gap Time Survival Functions: Application to Repeat Kidney Transplantation

    OpenAIRE

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-ident...

  15. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day......Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors...

  16. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  17. Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-06-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. PMID:26501480

  18. TRACE - a time-dependent and realistic accident consequence evaluation module for use in emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following the identification of an off-normal condition at nuclear power plant, the plant operators have one over-riding responsibility: protection of the offsite population. In discharging this responsibility, the operators utilize a set of emergency operating procdedures. A. Immediately following the identification of the off-normal condition, the operators primary actions are focused on establishing a safe, stable shutdown condition for the reactor. B. The plant condition is categorized according to the perceived severity of the event based on a broad overview of the plant conditions, and the information is transmitted to appropriate governmental authorities. C. Estimations of potential environmental releases of radioactivity, based on design basis accident results, are performed and transmitted to the governmental authorities. The TRACE package was developed to provide the operators with the tools to make realistic predictions of the range of possible releases of radioactivity to the environment during all phases of an off-normal condition, including severe accident situations. The TRACE package provides a means to project, during the early stages of an accident, the potential range of possible fission product releases on a realistic and time-dependent basis. The TRACE package also provides a means to update previous evaluations of the potential range of radioactivity releases as plant conditions change or a new information (on accident sequence or plant parameters) becomes available. (orig./HSCH)

  19. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  20. Improving lung cancer survival: Time to move on

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.E. Heuvers (Marlies)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In 1761, lung cancer was first described as a distinct disease based on autopsies by Giovanni Morgagni. In 1810, Gaspard Laurent Bayle described lung cancer in more detail in his book entitled Recherches sur la phthisie pulmonaire. At that time it was an extremely rare

  1. Surviving in a Metastable de Sitter Space-Time

    CERN Document Server

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Sen, Ashoke; Verma, Mritunjay

    2015-01-01

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of t...

  2. A discrete-time Multiple Event Process Survival Mixture (MEPSUM) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Danielle O; Bauer, Daniel J; Shanahan, Michael J

    2014-06-01

    Traditional survival analysis was developed to investigate the occurrence and timing of a single event, but researchers have recently begun to ask questions about the order and timing of multiple events. A multiple event process survival mixture model is developed here to analyze nonrepeatable events measured in discrete-time that may occur at the same point in time. Building on both traditional univariate survival analysis and univariate survival mixture analysis, the model approximates the underlying multivariate distribution of hazard functions via a discrete-point finite mixture in which the mixing components represent prototypical patterns of event occurrence. The model is applied in an empirical analysis concerning transitions to adulthood, where the events under study include parenthood, marriage, beginning full-time work, and obtaining a college degree. Promising opportunities, as well as possible limitations of the model and future directions for research, are discussed. PMID:24079930

  3. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  4. Survival is linked with reaction time and spatial memory in African striped mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maille, Audrey; Schradin, Carsten

    2016-08-01

    Studying the association between fitness and cognition in free-living animals is a fundamental step in the elucidation of the evolution of cognition. We assessed whether survival until the onset of the breeding season was related to reaction time or spatial memory in the African striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio, a rodent that has to survive summer drought before breeding. We tested a total of 90 individuals at the beginning of summer. Female survival was related to a faster response to predation stimuli. Male survival increased with greater spatial memory, possibly because it is important for males to remember the configuration of the environment during dispersal. This study revealed that individual variation in reaction time and spatial memory can be related to survival probability, which is important for understanding the selection pressures acting on basic cognitive traits. PMID:27484646

  5. Down syndrome time-clustering in January 1987 in Belarus: link with the Chernobyl accident? : Down syndrome after Chernobyl

    OpenAIRE

    Zatsepin, Ivan; VERGER, Pierre; Robert-Gnansia, Elisabeth; Gagnière, Bertrand; Tirmarche, Margot; Khmel, Rostislav; Babicheva, Irina; Lazjuk, Gennady

    2007-01-01

    International audience The Chernobyl accident (April 26, 1986) exposed a large part of the Belarus population to ionizing radiation. We analyzed the time trends of Down syndrome (DS) in Belarus to evaluate whether either brief exposure at high dose rates during the plume passage or continuous exposure at low doses and dose rates of the residents of contaminated areas had any detectable impact on DS prevalence at birth. DS data came from the Belarus National Registry of Congenital Malformat...

  6. Survival time of the susceptible-infected-susceptible infection process on a graph

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

    2015-01-01

    The survival time T is the longest time that a virus, a meme, or a failure can propagate in a network. Using the hitting time of the absorbing state in an uniformized embedded Markov chain of the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov process, we derive an exact expression for

  7. The preparation of tourists to the ski sports tours in a limited time in order to prevent injuries and accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toporkov A.N.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: compare indicators of testing tourist skiers at different stages of the preparatory period to ski sports hike of third grade. Determine the effectiveness of training programs created to the tourists Categorical ski sports to prevent injuries and accidents in a limited time. Material: The study involved 13 people aged from 21 to 65 (4 women and 9 men with different experiences of hiking trails and various levels of total tourist preparedness. Results: The test results obtained before beginning the process of preparation are treated upon its completion, and immediately after passing categorical hike. In practice, the effectiveness of the proposed training programs of tourists to ski sports tours is proved. Conclusions : The created program can be recommended to tourist clubs, associations and organizations as the base in preparation for ski sports campaigns for the prevention of accidents and injuries.

  8. Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.

    2009-01-01

    In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

  9. On a link between a species survival time in an evolution model and the Bessel distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Guiol, Herve; Schinazi, Rinaldo B

    2011-01-01

    We consider a stochastic model for species evolution. A new species is born at rate lambda and a species dies at rate mu. A random number, sampled from a given distribution F, is associated with each new species at the time of birth. Every time there is a death event, the species that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We consider the (random) survival time of a species with a given fitness f. We show that the survival time distribution depends crucially on whether ff_c where f_c is a critical fitness that is computed explicitly.

  10. A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-02-28

    Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. PMID:26358826

  11. Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

    2016-08-01

    A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0.

  12. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui GE

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time was analyzed. Results There was significant difference in ventilation function and diffusing capacity between in lung cancer group and control group. Vital capacity (VC, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC, peak expiratory flow (PEF, peak expiratory flow% (PEF%, maximal ventilatory volume (MVV were positively correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer (r=0.29, 0.28, 0.28, 0.27, 0.26, 0.28, P<0.05, residual volume/total lung capacity was negatively correlated with survival time (r=-0.31, P<0.05. Conclusion The lung function decreases in the patients with lung cancer. VC, FEV1, FVC, PEF, PEF%, MVV, residual volume/total lung capacity were correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. The pulmonary function indexs were important marker of prognosis in patients with lung cancer.

  13. THE SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN FINITE TIME PERIOD IN FULLY DISCRETE RISK MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ChengShixue; WuBiao

    1999-01-01

    The probabilities of the following events are first discussed in this paper: the insurance company survives to any fixed time k and the surplus at time k equals x≥1. The formulas for calculating such probabilities are deduced through analytical and probabilistic arguments respectively. Finally, other probability laws relating to risk are determined based on the probabilities mentioned above.

  14. Survival time of the susceptible-infected-susceptible infection process on a graph.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Bovenkamp, Ruud; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2015-09-01

    The survival time T is the longest time that a virus, a meme, or a failure can propagate in a network. Using the hitting time of the absorbing state in an uniformized embedded Markov chain of the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov process, we derive an exact expression for the average survival time E[T] of a virus in the complete graph K_{N} and the star graph K_{1,N-1}. By using the survival time, instead of the average fraction of infected nodes, we propose a new method to approximate the SIS epidemic threshold τ_{c} that, at least for K_{N} and K_{1,N-1}, correctly scales with the number of nodes N and that is superior to the epidemic threshold τ_{c}^{(1)}=1/λ_{1} of the N-intertwined mean-field approximation, where λ_{1} is the spectral radius of the adjacency matrix of the graph G. Although this new approximation of the epidemic threshold offers a more intuitive understanding of the SIS process, it remains difficult to compare outbreaks in different graph types. For example, the survival in an arbitrary graph seems upper bounded by the complete graph and lower bounded by the star graph as a function of the normalized effective infection rate τ/τ_{c}^{(1)}. However, when the average fraction of infected nodes is used as a basis for comparison, the virus will survive in the star graph longer than in any other graph, making the star graph the worst-case graph instead of the complete graph. Finally, in non-Markovian SIS, the distribution of the spreading attempts over the infectious period of a node influences the survival time, even if the expected number of spreading attempts during an infectious period (the non-Markovian equivalent of the effective infection rate) is kept constant. Both early and late infection attempts lead to shorter survival times. Interestingly, just as in Markovian SIS, the survival times appear to be exponentially distributed, regardless of the infection and curing time distributions. PMID:26465527

  15. Effect of spaying and timing of spaying on survival of dogs with mammary carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenmo, K U; Shofer, F S; Goldschmidt, M H

    2000-01-01

    The risk of developing mammary gland tumors in dogs is significantly decreased by ovariohysterectomy at an early age. However, previous studies have not found a benefit to ovariohysterectomy concurrent with tumor removal in dogs with established mammary gland tumors, suggesting that the progression of these tumors is independent of continued estrogen stimulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of spaying and of the timing of spaying on survival in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma. Signalment, spay status and spay age, tumor characteristics, treatment. survival, and cause of death of 137 dogs with mammary gland carcinoma were analyzed. The dogs were classified into 3 groups according to spay status and spay time: intact dogs, dogs spayed less than 2 years before tumor surgery (SPAY 1), and dogs spayed more than 2 years before their tumor surgery (SPAY 2). Dogs in the SPAY 1 group lived significantly longer than dogs in SPAY 2 and intact dogs (median survival of 755 days, versus 301 and 286 days, respectively, P = .02 and .03). After adjusting for differences between the spay groups with regard to age, histologic differentiation, and vascular invasion, SPAY 1 dogs survived 45% longer compared to dogs that were either intact or in the SPAY 2 group (RR = .55; 95% CI .32-.93; P = .03). This study reveals ovariohysterectomy to be an effective adjunct to tumor removal in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma and that the timing of ovariohysterectomy is important in influencing survival. PMID:10830539

  16. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  17. Discrete-Time Survival Factor Mixture Analysis for Low-Frequency Recurrent Event Histories

    OpenAIRE

    Masyn, Katherine E.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the latent class analysis framework for modeling single event discrete-time survival data is extended to low-frequency recurrent event histories. A partial gap time model, parameterized as a restricted factor mixture model, is presented and illustrated using juvenile offending data. This model accommodates event-specific baseline hazard probabilities and covariate effects; event recurrences within a single time period; and accounts for within- and between-su...

  18. Framing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: An international, comparative study of news frames in Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study investigated into the news frames employed in reporting on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, explored the maintenance of the radiation reporting standard, and assessed the overall tone for the local government, the Japanese Government, and the IAEA. Based on content from Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times (n=60), it was found that media evoked 'conflict', 'responsibility attribution', and 'human interest' frames, radiation reporting standard was marginally maintained, and the overall tone was neutral (local government, IAEA) or negative (Japanese Government). Variances across countries were observed, but results coincided with the country's nuclear energy policy. (author)

  19. Time to treatment as a quality metric in lung cancer: Staging studies, time to treatment, and patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis

  20. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  1. Recidivism and Survival Time: Racial Disparity among Jail Ex-Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyunzee; Spjeldnes, Solveig; Yamatani, Hide

    2010-01-01

    Incarcerated men, most of whom are recidivists, are disproportionately black. Much literature about prison ex-inmates reports on this disparity, yet little is known about racial disparity in recidivism rates among jail ex-inmates. This study examined recidivism rates and survival time (period from release date to rearrest) among male ex-inmates…

  2. A multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dan; Rollins, Katie; Coughlin, Patrick

    2014-09-01

    Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and we compare the results to those obtained from standard methodologies. Our method uses exact binomial within-study distributions and enforces the constraints that both the study specific and the overall mortality rates must not decrease over time. We directly model the probabilities of mortality at each time point, which are the quantities of primary clinical interest. We also present I(2) statistics that quantify the impact of the between-study heterogeneity, which is very considerable in our data set.

  3. CURRENT FACTORS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN ISFAHAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B AMINMAN SOUR

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Introduction. Car accident mortality is the third order causes of death in the USA, following cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Given present survival and outcome Iranian data, more than 14,000 patients die annually in road accidents. Having a valid and reliable data could be useful in reduce mortality and morbidity reduction.
    Methods. Twenty five percent of total traumatic patients in Isfahan were selected (N=2809 at the time of study (1997-1998. Forty five percent of them with car accident were asked about causes of accidents and risk factors for the severity and type of injuries were recorded based on International Classification of Disease 10.
    Results. Most of the victims were young (10-20 years old, students and industrial workers. Statistically unreasonable numbers of cars without extension of roads and high ways, using old and unsafe cars will affects on accidents.
    Discussion. In comparison with European and some Asian countries, Iran has unacceptable road accidents and it seems necessary to pay more attention to stop the current increasing data.

     

  4. A Parallelized Pumpless Artificial Placenta System Significantly Prolonged Survival Time in a Preterm Lamb Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Yuichiro; Matsuda, Tadashi; Usuda, Haruo; Watanabe, Shimpei; Kitanishi, Ryuta; Saito, Masatoshi; Hanita, Takushi; Kobayashi, Yoshiyasu

    2016-05-01

    An artificial placenta (AP) is an arterio-venous extracorporeal life support system that is connected to the fetal circulation via the umbilical vasculature. Previously, we published an article describing a pumpless AP system with a small priming volume. We subsequently developed a parallelized system, hypothesizing that the reduced circuit resistance conveyed by this modification would enable healthy fetal survival time to be prolonged. We conducted experiments using a premature lamb model to test this hypothesis. As a result, the fetal survival period was significantly prolonged (60.4 ± 3.8 vs. 18.2 ± 3.2 h, P Fetal physiological parameters remained stable until the conclusion of the experiments. In summary, parallelization of the AP system was associated with reduced circuit resistance and lactate levels and allowed preterm lamb fetuses to survive for a significantly longer period when compared with previous studies. PMID:26644374

  5. The L(1/2) regularization approach for survival analysis in the accelerated failure time model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Hua; Liang, Yong; Liu, Xiao-Ying

    2015-09-01

    The analysis of high-dimensional and low-sample size microarray data for survival analysis of cancer patients is an important problem. It is a huge challenge to select the significantly relevant bio-marks from microarray gene expression datasets, in which the number of genes is far more than the size of samples. In this article, we develop a robust prediction approach for survival time of patient by a L(1/2) regularization estimator with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The L(1/2) regularization could be seen as a typical delegate of L(q)(0regularization methods and it has shown many attractive features. In order to optimize the problem of the relevant gene selection in high-dimensional biological data, we implemented the L(1/2) regularized AFT model by the coordinate descent algorithm with a renewed half thresholding operator. The results of the simulation experiment showed that we could obtain more accurate and sparse predictor for survival analysis by the L(1/2) regularized AFT model compared with other L1 type regularization methods. The proposed procedures are applied to five real DNA microarray datasets to efficiently predict the survival time of patient based on a set of clinical prognostic factors and gene signatures.

  6. Survival times of women radium dial workers first exposed before 1930

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Life table methods were applied to survival data on U.S. women radium dial workers in order to compare observed and expected deaths as a function of time after exposure to radium. The study population consisted of 1235 workers employed in the industry before 1930 for whom age and year of death, withdrawal or loss from the study were known. Expected deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for U.S. white females. The closing year for analysis was 1976, so observation times of 45 to 60 years were possible. For all causes, 529 deaths before age 85 were observed versus 461 expected, and the cumulative survival of the population was significantly less than expected at 10 and more years after first employment. Estimates were made of the net survival probabilities after elimination of risk due to the well-known radium-related malignancies, i.e. bone sarcomas and carcinomas of the paranasal sinuses and the mastoid air cells. There were 455 observed deaths from other causes versus 460 expected, and there was no significant difference between observed and expected cumulative net survival at one-year intervals from zero to 59 years after first employment. These findings indicate that only the known radium-related malignancies contributed significantly to life shortening of the exposed population as a whole, but the presence of other radium-related causes of death may yet be detectable by examination of specific risks as a function of dose. (author)

  7. 33 CFR 150.503 - What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls? 150.503 Section 150.503 Navigation and Navigable Waters... maintenance on survival craft falls? (a) Each fall used in a launching device for survival craft or...

  8. Impacts of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident on emergency medical service times in Soma District, Japan: a retrospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Tomohiro; Furutani, Tomoyuki; Nomura, Shuhei; Leppold, Claire; Takahara, Kazuhiro; Shimada, Yuki; Fujioka, Sho; Kami, Masahiro; Kato, Shigeaki; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the influence of the 3.11 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident) on the emergency medical service (EMS) system in Fukushima. Methods Total EMS time (from EMS call to arrival at a hospital) was assessed in the EMS system of Soma district, located 10–40 km north of the nuclear plant, from 11 March to 31 December 2011. We defined the affected period as when total EMS time was significantly extended after the disasters compared with the historical control data from 1 January 2009 to 10 March 2011. To identify risk factors associated with the extension of total EMS time after the disasters, we investigated trends in 3 time segments of total EMS time; response time, defined as time from an EMS call to arrival at the location, on-scene time, defined as time from arrival at the location to departure, and transport time, defined as time from departure from the location to arrival at a hospital. Results For the affected period from week 0 to week 11, the median total EMS time was 36 (IQR 27–52) minutes, while that in the predisaster control period was 31 (IQR 24–40) min. The percentage of transports exceeding 60 min in total EMS time increased from 8.2% (584/7087) in the control period to 22.2% (151/679) in the affected period. Among the 3 time segments, there was the most change in transport time (standardised mean difference: 0.41 vs 0.13–0.17). Conclusions EMS transport was significantly delayed for ∼3 months, from week 1 to 11 after the 3.11 triple disaster. This delay may be attributed to malfunctioning emergency hospitals after the triple disaster. PMID:27683521

  9. Pancreatic cancer: Wait times from presentation to treatment and survival in a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jooste, Valérie; Dejardin, Olivier; Bouvier, Véronique; Arveux, Patrick; Maynadie, Marc; Launoy, Guy; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

    2016-09-01

    Pancreatic survival is one of the worst in oncology. To what extent wait times affect outcomes in unknown No population-based study has previously explored patient and treatment delays among individuals with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to estimate patient and treatment delays in patients with pancreatic cancer and to measure their association with survival in a nonselected population. All patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer for the first time between 2009 and 2011 and registered in two French digestive cancer registries were included. Patient delay (time from onset of symptoms until the first consultation categorized into <1 or ≥1 month), and treatment delay (time between the first consultation and treatment categorized into less or more than 29 days, the median time) were collected. Overall delay was used to test associations between survival and the timeliness of care by combining patient delay and treatment delay. Patient delay was longer than 1 month in 46% of patients. A patient delay longer than one month was associated with the absence of jaundice (p < 0.001) and the presence of metastasis (p = 0.003). After adjusting for other covariates, such as symptoms and treatment, the presence of metastasis was negatively associated with treatment delay longer than 29 days (p = 0.025). After adjustment for other covariates, especially metastatic dissemination and the result of the resection, overall delay was not significantly associated with prognosis. We found little evidence to suggest that timely care was associated with the survival of patients. PMID:27130333

  10. Transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predicting the possible consequences of transportation accidents provides a severe challenge to an analyst who must make a judgment of the likely consequences of a release event at an unpredictable time and place. Since it is impractical to try to obtain detailed knowledge of the meteorology and terrain for every potential accident location on a route or to obtain accurate descriptions of population distributions or sensitive property to be protected (data which are more likely to be more readily available when one deals with fixed-site problems), he is constrained to make conservative assumptions in response to a demanding public audience. These conservative assumptions are frequently offset by very small source terms (relative to a fixed site) created when a transport vehicle is involved in an accident. For radioactive materials, which are the principal interest of the authors, only the most elementary models have been used for assessing the consequences of release of these materials in the transportation setting. Risk analysis and environmental impact statements frequently have used the Pasquill-Gifford/gaussian techniques for releases of short duration, which are both simple and easy to apply and require a minimum amount of detailed information. However, after deciding to use such a model, the problem of selecting what specific parameters to use in specific transportation situations still presents itself. Additional complications arise because source terms are not well characterized, release rates can be variable over short and long time periods, and mechanisms by which source aerosols become entrained in air are not always obvious. Some approaches that have been used to address these problems will be reviewed with emphasis on guidelines to avoid the Worst-Case Scenario Syndrome

  11. Three-dimensional dose evaluation system using real-time wind field information for nuclear accidents in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jay; Lu, Chung-Hsin; Chang, Shu-Jun; Yang, Yung-Muh; Chang, Bor-Jing; Teng, Jen-Hsin

    2006-09-01

    In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures.

  12. Three-dimensional dose evaluation system using real-time wind field information for nuclear accidents in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures

  13. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  14. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Movahhed

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration.

  15. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  16. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  17. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Ge, Hui; Jiang, Zhenghua; Huang, Qian; Muyun ZHU; Yang, Jie

    2013-01-01

    Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and surv...

  18. Effectiveness of DMSO and cystein survival time and testes weight on white rats by gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An investigation on the effectiveness of two radioprotectors (DMSO and cystein) separately and in combination to suppress radiation effect (survival time and testes weight) has been carries out. One hundred and forty four male rats 2 mounths 21 days old and of 142.549+/-3.588 grams body weight were divided into four groups and each group was injected intramusculary with 1.4 ml aquabides 0.4 ml DMSO, 120 mg cystein and DMSO+cystein (0.4+120 mg). Each group was divided into six subgroups and irradiated with gamma rays from a 60 Co gamma cell-220 machine with doses of 0.0; 0.5; 1.0; 2.0; 4.0; and 6.0 Gy, respectively. On days 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 post irradiation, the rats were killed for observations of the testes weight and the survival time. The results showed that with increasing dose of irradiation, testes weight decreased, and 6 Gy caused a descrease up to 40% on day 30 post irradiation. The administration of radioprotectors could lessen the decrease of testes weight in which combined radioprotectors was most effective. Also, combines radioprotectors were most effective in prolonging the survival time of rats irradiated with dose up to 6 Gy. (authors), 6 refs.; 2 tabs.; 1 fig

  19. Effects of social isolation stress on immune response and survival time of mouse with liver cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hui Liu; Zhun Wang

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the effects of isolation stress on mouse with liver cancer and possible associated mechanisms.METHODS: Transplantable murine hepatoma22 (H22) model was used to evaluate the effects of social isolation stress on murine liver cancer. Mice were immunized with sheep red blood cell (SRBC) and intraperitoneally inoculated with H22 cell, then divided into two groups, one reared individually as group (Ⅰ) and the other reared in groups as group (G). Titer of antibody to SRBC and interleukin 2 (IL-2) in serum was monitored. The survival time of mouse with liver cancer was observed.RESULTS: The titer of antibody to SRBC in group (G) was 1:24.5 and that in group (Ⅰ) was 1:11.2. There was a significant difference between these two groups (t = 2.60,P = 0.02). A significant difference in IL-2 concentration was observed between group (G) (39.6 ng/L) and group (Ⅰ) (47.1 ng/L, t= 2.14, P = 0.046). The survival time in group (G) (16.5 d) was markedly longer than that in group (Ⅰ) (13.2 d, t = 3.46, P = 0.002).CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that survival time of the mouse bearing H22 tumor is affected by the social isolation stress and the associated mechanism may be the immunological changes under the social isolation stress.

  20. PEGylated dendritic nanoarchitechture improves mean survival time of BDF1mice bearing myelogenous k -562 leukemia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ramadoss Karthikeyan; Pureti Madhu Kumar; Palanirajan Vijayaraj Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To developing and exploring the use ofPEGylated poly(propylene imine) dendritic architecture for the delivery of an anti leukemic activity ofPrednisolone.Methods:For this study,PEGylated poly(propylene imine) dendritic architecture was synthesized and loaded with Prednisolone and targeted to the ascetic form of myelogenous leukemia k-562 cellines in hybrid miceBDF1, was used as tumor model.Theantileukemic activity was assessed by use of the criterionT/C%, whereT was the mean survival time(MST, days) of the drug treated mice, bearing k-562 leukemia andC- the mean survival time(MST, days) of untreated control animals, bearing the same leukemia cellines.Results:An antileukemic activity of the studiedPrednisolone loaded PEGylatedPolypropyleneimine(PPI) dendrimer was found to have increasing the mean survival time of the k-562 myelogenous leukemia cellines bearingBDF1 mice.The criterion“increase of life span”(ILS%) reached maximally270.1% for the drug loaded dendrimer.Conclusion:The studied dendrimer withPrednisolone showed lower toxicity with improved antileukemic activity in comparison with freePrednisolone.The further experiments in this field are in progress, aiming to design better dendritic formulations, with potential clinical use.

  1. On the Estimation of Expected Survival Time of AIDS Patients Undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy Using Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurprit GROVER

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The progression of HIV infection depends not only on the combination of drugs and adherence to the Anti Retroviral therapy (ART, but also on various other factors. The survival of an HIV patient depends on interaction of these factors with the therapy. Material and Methods: The parametric approach with and without covariates have been used to analyze the survival data of HIV/AIDS patients. When covariates are not considered, survival distributions are fitted and best one chosen. The inclusion of covariates is analyzed using Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model (CGPR. Results: For a retrospective right censored data of 1689 HIV/AIDS patients undergoing ART at the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India, appropriate survival distributions in the absence of covariates are fitted. Using the Akaike Information Criterion, Gamma distribution is found to be the distribution of best fit. Assuming Gamma survival distribution with right censored survival time data, the mean survival time of AIDS patients using the method of maximum likelihood is found to be 11.14 years. Also, CGPR model for estimating the survival time while accounting for the impact of cofactors is used for the first time on the AIDS dataset. Conclusion: The advantage of using a CGPR model over the gamma right censored distribution is that the mean survival time of the AIDS patient undergoing ART can be estimated in the presence of significant prognostic factors. Using this model, age, gender, smoking status, alcoholism, WHO staging, improvement in CD4 count, opportunistic infections, number of visits and weight at initiation of ART are identified as significant prognostic factors effecting the survival time. On averaging the predicted survival times based on CGPR model, the mean survival time of AIDS patients on ART is found to be 12.12 years.

  2. Survival analysis of car travel time near a bus stop in developing countries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG XiaoBao; GAO ZiYou; GUO HongWei; HUAN Mei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an important investigation into car travel time affected by mixed traffic flow near a bus stop on the basis of survival analysis theory.Travel time data associated with mixed traffic characteristics near a bus stop were collected by video cameras.A hazard-based duration model was introduced to analyze the effects of mixed traffic flow on car travel time.The results indicate that mixed traffic flow impacts car travel time significantly.And the presence of bus berthing violation would delay car travel time.The proposed model can be used to forecast temporal shifts in car travel time due to changes in mixed traffic flow.The influential factors related to mixed traffic flow should be given full consideration in the planning and designing of bus stops in developing countries.

  3. It's About Time: A Survival Approach to Gestational Weight Gain and Preterm Delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Emily M; Hinkle, Stefanie N; Schisterman, Enrique F

    2016-03-01

    There is substantial interest in understanding the impact of gestational weight gain on preterm delivery (delivery hazard ratio: 0.89, 95% confidence interval = 0.84, 0.93). Properly accounting for the confounding effect of time using a survival model, however, mitigates this bias (hazard ratio: 0.98, 95% confidence interval = 0.97, 1.00). These results emphasize the importance of considering the effect of gestational age on time-varying covariates during pregnancy, and the proposed methods offer a convenient mechanism to appropriately analyze such data.See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B13. PMID:26489043

  4. The tumour microenvironment influences survival and time to transformation in follicular lymphoma in the rituximab era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaker, Yngvild Nuvin; Spetalen, Signe; Brodtkorb, Marianne; Lingjaerde, Ole Christian; Beiske, Klaus; Østenstad, Bjørn; Sander, Birgitta; Wahlin, Björn Engelbrekt; Melen, Christopher Michael; Myklebust, June Helen; Holte, Harald; Delabie, Jan; Smeland, Erlend Bremertun

    2016-10-01

    The tumour microenvironment influences outcome in patients with follicular lymphoma (FL), but its impact on transformation is less studied. We investigated the prognostic significance of the tumour microenvironment on transformation and survival in FL patients treated in the rituximab era. We examined diagnostic and transformed biopsies from 52 FL patients using antibodies against CD3, CD4, CD8, CD21 (CR2), CD57 (B3GAT1), CD68, FOXP3, TIA1, PD-1 (PDCD1), PD-L1 (CD274) and PAX5. Results were compared with a second cohort of 40 FL patients without signs of transformation during a minimum of five years observation time. Cell numbers and localization were semi-quantitatively assessed. Better developed CD21+  follicular dendritic cell (FDC) meshworks at diagnosis was a negative prognostic factor for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and time to transformation (TTT) in patients with subsequently transformed FL. Remnants of FDC meshworks at transformation were associated with shorter OS and PFS from transformation. High degrees of intrafollicular CD68+ and PD-L1+  macrophage infiltration, high total area scores and an extrafollicular/diffuse pattern of FOXP3+  T cells and high intrafollicular scores of CD4+  T cells at diagnosis were associated with shorter TTT. Scores of several T-cell subset markers from the combined patient cohorts were predictive for transformation, especially CD4 and CD57. PMID:27341313

  5. Safety and Response-Time Analysis of an Automotive Accident Assistance Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argent-Katwala, Ashok; Clark, Allan; Foster, Howard; Gilmore, Stephen; Mayer, Philip; Tribastone, Mirco

    In the present paper we assess both the safety properties and the response-time profile of a subscription service which provides medical assistance to drivers who are injured in vehicular collisions. We use both timed and untimed process calculi cooperatively to perform the required analysis. The formal analysis tools used are hosted on a high-level modelling platform with support for scripting and orchestration which enables users to build custom analysis processes from the general-purpose analysers which are hosted as services on the platform.

  6. A comparison of United States and Japanese regulatory requirements at the time of Fukushima accident and updates of USNRC post-Fukushima activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the similarities and differences between the United States (US) and Japan on nuclear reactor regulations based on a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) study after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The US and Japan had many similarities in design basis requirements and guidance at the time of the event. There were also differences between the US and Japan in the approach to beyond design basis events and severe accidents. This paper also discusses the NRC's post-Fukushima activities and US industry’s responses. This paper will give the most recent updates on these activities and path forward. (author)

  7. Nest survival patterns in Eurasian Bittern: effect of nest age, time and habitat variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Determining the key factors affecting the reproductive success of nesting birds is crucial in order to better understand the population dynamics of endangered species and to introduce effective conservation programmes for them. Inhabiting a variety of wetland habitats, aquatic birds actively select safe nesting sites so as to protect their nests against predators. The main aim of the present work was to assess the effect of temporal and habitat variables on the daily nest survival rate of Eurasian Bitterns colonizing semi–natural fishpond habitat in eastern Poland. MARK software was used for the modelling. Eurasian Bittern nests were most vulnerable to depredation at the beginning of the breeding season. This was probably because the reedbed vegetation at this time was not yet dense enough to effectively conceal the nests. There was a positive relationship between nest age and the daily survival rate. Two of the habitat variables analysed were of the greatest significance: water depth and vegetation density. In the Eurasian Bittern population studied here, nests built over deep water and in dense vegetation had the best chances of survival. The results of this work may be useful in the preparation of plans for the conservation and management of populations of this rare and endangered species. Conservation and restoration efforts that attempt to maintain high water levels will be especially beneficial to this avian species that is dependent on wetland ecosystems for breeding. PMID:27350897

  8. Chaotic dynamics of Comet 1P/Halley: Lyapunov exponent and survival time expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Gutiérrez, M. A.; Reyes-Ruiz, M.; Pichardo, B.

    2015-03-01

    The orbital elements of Comet Halley are known to a very high precision, suggesting that the calculation of its future dynamical evolution is straightforward. In this paper we seek to characterize the chaotic nature of the present day orbit of Comet Halley and to quantify the time-scale over which its motion can be predicted confidently. In addition, we attempt to determine the time-scale over which its present day orbit will remain stable. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of test particles in orbits similar to that of Comet Halley are carried out with the MERCURY 6.2 code. On the basis of these we construct survival time maps to assess the absolute stability of Halley's orbit, frequency analysis maps to study the variability of the orbit, and we calculate the Lyapunov exponent for the orbit for variations in initial conditions at the level of the present day uncertainties in our knowledge of its orbital parameters. On the basis of our calculations of the Lyapunov exponent for Comet Halley, the chaotic nature of its motion is demonstrated. The e-folding time-scale for the divergence of initially very similar orbits is approximately 70 yr. The sensitivity of the dynamics on initial conditions is also evident in the self-similarity character of the survival time and frequency analysis maps in the vicinity of Halley's orbit, which indicates that, on average, it is unstable on a time-scale of hundreds of thousands of years. The chaotic nature of Halley's present day orbit implies that a precise determination of its motion, at the level of the present-day observational uncertainty, is difficult to predict on a time-scale of approximately 100 yr. Furthermore, we also find that the ejection of Halley from the Solar system or its collision with another body could occur on a time-scale as short as 10 000 yr.

  9. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  10. Cardiac arrest teams and time of day: effects on surviving in-hospital resuscitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christ M

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Material and methods: In-hospital cardiac arrest teams at our hospital were instructed to complete a questionnaire following every emergency call between July 2011 and June 2013. Data on all resuscitation attempts were collected and analyzed. Results: A total of 65 in-hospital resuscitations were recorded in 42 males (64.6% and 23 females (35.4% (mean age 72.0±14.3 years. A total of 54 (83.1% cardiac arrests were witnessed; seven (10.8% showed a shockable rhythm at the time of the first ECG. Resuscitation attempts lasted 29.3±41.3 minutes, and 4.1±3.1 mg epinephrine was given. Return of spontaneous circulation could be achieved in 38 patients (58.5%; 29 (44.6% survived the first day, 23 (35.4% the seventh day, and 15 patients (23.1% were discharged alive. Significantly more in-hospital resuscitations were obtained for those performed during non-regular working hours (P<0.001, with higher neuron-specific enolase levels at 72 hours after resuscitation during nonregular working hours (P=0.04. Patients who were discharged alive were significantly younger (P=0.01, presented more often with an initial shockable rhythm (P=0.04, and had a shorter duration of resuscitation (P<0.001 with the need of a lower dose of epinephrine (P<0.001. Discussion: Survival rates following in-hospital resuscitation were poor at any time, but appear to depend less on time-dependent effects of the quality of resuscitation and more on time-dependent effects of recognition of cardiac arrests

  11. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  12. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered

  13. Time-fractional telegraph equation for hydrogen diffusion during severe accident in BWRs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.-I. Cázares-Ramírez

    2016-01-01

    The hydrogen concentration results in a reaction due to oxidation for different values of fractional coefficient, at t=0 and short times were obtained. The physical meaning is discussed when the fractional coefficient tends to a value of 1 and when it tends to a value of 0.5, i.e., within the limits of validity of the fractional model proposed. According to the results obtained the hydrogen concentration is inversely proportional to the fractional coefficient. These results are relevant for decision making in terms of risk analysis in nuclear power plant with BWR.

  14. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded...... identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  15. Nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  16. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  17. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Lívio; Cunha, João Paulo; Amado, Duarte; Pinto, Luís Abegão; Ferreira, Joana

    2015-01-01

    Glaucoma is a multifactorial condition under serious influence of many risk factors. The role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in glaucoma etiology or progression remains inconclusive. Although, the diabetic patients have different healing mechanism comparing to the general population and it has a possible-negative role on surgical outcomes. This review article attempts to analyze the association of both diseases, glaucoma and DM, before and after the surgery. The epidemiological studies, based mainly in population prevalence analyzes, have shown opposite outcomes in time and even in the most recent articles also the association remains inconclusive. On the contrary, the experimental models based on animal induced chronic hyperglycemia have shown an important association of both diseases, explained by common neurodegenerative mechanisms. Diabetic patients have a different wound healing process in the eye viz-a-viz other organs. The healing process is more and it results in lower surgical survival time, higher intraocular pressure (IOP) levels and, therefore, these patients usually need more medication to lower the IOP. Both randomized and nonrandomized retrospective and experimental molecular studies have shown the association between DM and glaucoma. Further studies are needed to get better explanations about outcomes on more recent surgical procedures and with the exponential use of antifibrotics. How to cite this article: Costa L, Cunha JP, Amado D, Pinto LA, Ferreira J. Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor in Glaucoma's Physiopathology and Surgical Survival Time: A Literature Review. J Curr Glaucoma Pract 2015;9(3):81-85. PMID:26997842

  18. Space-time Bayesian survival modeling of chronic wasting disease in deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hae-Ryoung; Lawson, Andrew

    2009-09-01

    The primary objectives of this study are to describe the spatial and temporal variation in disease prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD), to assess the effect of demographic factors such as age and sex on disease prevalence and to model the disease clustering effects over space and time. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical survival model where latent parameters capture temporal and spatial trends in disease incidence, incorporating several individual covariates and random effects. The model is applied to a data set which consists of 65085 harvested deer in Wisconsin from 2002 to 2006. We found significant sex effects, spatial effects, temporal effects and spatio-temporal interacted effects in CWD infection in deer in Wisconsin. The risk of infection for male deer was significantly higher than that of female deer, and CWD has been significantly different over space, time, and space and time based on the harvest samples.

  19. Workplace organizational correlates of lost-time accident rates in manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, H S; Walters, V; Lewchuck, W; Richardson, J; Moran, L A; Haines, T; Verma, D

    1996-03-01

    We report the results of a questionnaire survey of manufacturing workplaces related to the lost-time frequency rates (LTFR) for Workers' Compensation claims. Six types of industry were chosen.' metal articles, plastic articles, grain products, textile manufacturing, printing, and automobile manufacturing. LTFR were standardized by type of industry. Stratifying simultaneously by number of employees and LTFR category, we sampled 718 workplaces. A mail questionnaire to labor and management representatives provided at least some information on 58%. Response rates were similar across LTFR categories, and telephone interviews of non-responders showed little difference in their replies from those obtained in completed questionnaires. A large number of variables were examined. Apart from statistical significance, we looked for consistency in trends across LTFR categories and in patterns for similar questions. Significant associations grouped into several areas. Lower LTFR were associated with: concrete demonstration by management of its concern for the workforce; greater involvement of workers in general decision-making; greater willingness of the Joint Health and Safety Committee to solve problems internally; and greater experience of the workforce. Variables that were not significant included profitability and financial performance. A final stepwise multiple regression explained 19% of the variance in LTFR, although this analysis suffered from several limitations. PMID:8833778

  20. Gene expression profiling of canine osteosarcoma reveals genes associated with short and long survival times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao Nagesha AS

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the

  1. Time-to-burnout data for a prototypical ITER divertor tube during a simulated loss of flow accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Loss of Flow Accident (LOFA) is a serious safety concern for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) as it has been suggested that greater than 100 seconds are necessary to safely shutdown the plasma when ITER is operating at full power. In this experiment, the thermal response of a prototypical ITER divertor tube during a simulated LOFA was studied. The divertor tube was fabricated from oxygen-free high-conductivity copper to have a square geometry with a circular coolant channel. The coolant channel inner diameter was 0.77 cm, the heated length was 4.0 cm, and the heated width was 1.6 cm. The mockup did not feature any flow enhancement techniques, i.e., swirl tape, helical coils, or internal fins. One-sided surface heating of the mockup was accomplished through the use of the 30 kW Sandia Electron Beam Test System. After reaching steady state temperatures in the mockup, as determined by two Type-K thermocouples installed 0.5 mm beneath the heated surface, the coolant pump was manually tripped off and the coolant flow allowed to naturally coast down. Electron beam heating continued after the pump trip until the divertor tube's heated surface exhibited the high temperature transient normally indicative of rapidly approaching burnout. Experimental data showed that time-to-burnout increases proportionally with increasing inlet velocity and decreases proportionally with increasing incident heat flux

  2. An Epidemiological Study of Accidents among Construction Workers in Kerman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Khaje

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accidents are known among the leading causes of deaths and disabilities in developing and industrialized countries. Among the various occupations and activities, construction industry is among the most hazardous industries in the world, the risk of which and its following harms are still somehow unknown. This study aimed at investigating the epidemiology of accidents in construction, for the first time in Kerman. Methods: In this descriptive, analytical study, all construction workers (n=153 who had been hurt at work during 2006-2008 were investigated. The data were collected through questionnaire and were analyzed by chi-square and regression logistic test, SPSS statistical software. Results: The mean age of the injured workers was 32 years (the lowest age was 16 and the highest was 70 years and the highest rate of accidents occurred among the 16-36 years-old age group. Generally, 16.3 % (n=25 of the accidents led to death and 77.8% of the accidents occurred to people with junior high school and lower levels of education. There were significant relationships between the three variables of year, season and the shift in which the accident occurred and the result (death or survival of the accident. However, no significant relationships were observed between the insurance status of the injured and the results of the accidents. Conclusion: In Iran, there are strong relationships between reasons and results of accidents, so this study recommends more studies with the aim of changing the current trend to prevent the accidents in future.

  3. Molecular clock evidence for survival of Antarctic cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales, Phormidium autumnale) from Paleozoic times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strunecký, Otakar; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2012-11-01

    Cyanobacteria are well adapted to freezing and desiccation; they have been proposed as possible survivors of comprehensive Antarctic glaciations. Filamentous types from the order Oscillatoriales, especially the species Phormidium autumnale Kützing ex Gomont 1892, have widely diverse morphotypes that dominate in Antarctic aquatic microbial mats, seepages, and wet soils. Currently little is known about the dispersion of cyanobacteria in Antarctica and of their population history. We tested the hypothesis that cyanobacteria survived Antarctic glaciations directly on site after the Gondwana breakup by using the relaxed and strict molecular clock in the analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. We estimated that the biogeographic history of Antarctic cyanobacteria belonging to P. autumnale lineages has ancient origins. The oldest go further back in time than the breakup of Gondwana and originated somewhere on the supercontinent between 442 and 297 Ma. Enhanced speciation rate was found around the time of the opening of the Drake Passage (c. 31-45 Ma) with beginning of glaciations (c. 43 Ma). Our results, based primarily on the strains collected in maritime Antarctica, mostly around James Ross Island, support the hypothesis that long-term survival took place in glacial refuges. The high morphological diversification of P. autumnale suggested the coevolution of lineages and formation of complex associations with different morphologies, resulting in a specific endemic Antarctic cyanobacterial flora.

  4. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  5. Preoperative diffusion-weighted imaging of single brain metastases correlates with patient survival times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sophie Berghoff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: MRI-based diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI visualizes the local differences in water diffusion in vivo. The prognostic value of DWI signal intensities on the source images and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC maps respectively has not yet been studied in brain metastases (BM. METHODS: We included into this retrospective analysis all patients operated for single BM at our institution between 2002 and 2010, in whom presurgical DWI and BM tissue samples were available. We recorded relevant clinical data, assessed DWI signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC values and performed histopathological analysis of BM tissues. Statistical analyses including uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: 65 patients (34 female, 31 male with a median overall survival time (OS of 15 months (range 0-99 months were available for this study. 19 (29.2% patients presented with hyper-, 3 (4.6% with iso-, and 43 (66.2% with hypointense DWI. ADCmean values could be determined in 32 (49.2% patients, ranged from 456.4 to 1691.8*10⁻⁶ mm²/s (median 969.5 and showed a highly significant correlation with DWI signal intensity. DWI hyperintensity correlated significantly with high amount of interstitial reticulin deposition. In univariate analysis, patients with hyperintense DWI (5 months and low ADCmean values (7 months had significantly worse OS than patients with iso/hypointense DWI (16 months and high ADCmean values (30 months, respectively. In multivariate survival analysis, high ADCmean values retained independent statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative DWI findings strongly and independently correlate with OS in patients operated for single BM and are related to interstitial fibrosis. Inclusion of DWI parameters into established risk stratification scores for BM patients should be considered.

  6. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  7. [Drowning accidents in childhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krandick, G; Mantel, K

    1990-09-30

    This is a report on five boys aged between 1 and 5 years who, after prolonged submersion in cold water, were treated at our department. On being taken out of the water, all the patients were clinically dead. After 1- to 3-hour successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, with a rectal temperature of about 27 degrees C, they were rewarmed at a rate of 1 degree/hour. Two patients died within a few hours after the accident. One patient survived with an apallic syndrome, 2 children survived with no sequelae. In the event of a water-related accident associated with hypothermia, we consider suitable resuscitation to have preference over rewarming measures. The most important treatment guidelines and prognostic factors are discussed.

  8. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  9. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation.

  10. Rhein lysinate increases the median survival time of SAMP10 mice: protective role in the kidney

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gang HU; Jiang LIU; Yong-zhan ZHEN; Rong XU; Yu QIAO; Jie WEI; Ping TU

    2013-01-01

    Aim:To investigate the protective effects of rhein lysinate (RHL),a major bioactive constituent of the rhizome of rhubarb (Rheum palmatum Linn or Rheum tanguticum Maxim),against kidney impairment in senescence-prone inbred strain 10 (SAMP10) mice.Methods:SAMP10 mice were orally administered RHL (25 or 50 mg/kg) daily until 50% of the mice died.Senescence-resistant inbred strain 1 (SAMR1) mice administered no drug were taken as control.The kidneys were harvested after animal death,and examined morphologically and with immunochemical assays.The levels of MAD,SOD and GSH-px in the kidneys were measured with a photometric method.The expression of inflammatory factors and related proteins in the kidneys was analyzed using Western blotting.Results:Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL had no effect on the body weight or phenotype.However,RHL significantly prolonged the median survival time of SAMP10 mice by approximately 25%,as compared to untreated SAMP10 mice.Compared SAMR1 mice,SAMP10 mice had a significantly lower level of SOD in the kidneys,but had no significant difference in the MDA or GSH-px levels.Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL significantly reduced the MAD level,and increased the SOD and GSH-px levels in the kidneys.Glomerulonephritis was observed in SAMP10 mice but not in SAMR1 mice.RHL decreased the incidence of glomerulonephritis,and significantly decreased the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,NF-κB,collagen types Ⅰ and Ⅲ in the kidneys.Conclusion:Accelerated senescence is associated with glomerulonephritis in SAMP10 mice,and RHL prolongs their median survival time by red ucing the severity of glomeruloneph ritis.

  11. The impact of time factors on overall survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a population-based study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is most common in Southeast Asia. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between wait time and length of radiotherapy and overall survival (OS) of NPC patients in Taiwan. From Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, this nationwide population-based cohort study identified 3605 NPC patients who received radiotherapy between 2008 and 2011. The impact of time factors on NPC survival rates was estimated with Kaplan-Meier survival curves. A multivariable Cox hazards regression model tested the significance of results after adjustment for other covariables. In all, 317 patients had wait times >4 weeks, 1404 patients had longer duration of radiotherapy (i.e., >10 weeks) and 499 died. Patients with wait times > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks didn’t have significantly inferior survival. Patients with wait times >4 weeks and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks had significantly lower OS than other groups, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.7 (95 % CI, 1.10–2.60). Time was a significant prognostic factor for NPC patients who had both >4 weeks wait times and length of radiotherapy >10 weeks. Patients with wait time > 4 weeks and length of radiotherapy ≤ 10 weeks had a trend toward an inferior survival

  12. PSO-Based Robot Path Planning for Multisurvivor Rescue in Limited Survival Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Geng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.

  13. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  14. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  15. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone. PMID:27308884

  16. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone.

  17. Analysis of multilevel grouped survival data with time-varying regression coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, May C M; Lam, K F; Lo, Edward C M

    2011-02-10

    Correlated or multilevel grouped survival data are common in medical and dental research. Two common approaches to analyze such data are the marginal and the random-effects approaches. Models and methods in the literature generally assume that the treatment effect is constant over time. A researcher may be interested in studying whether the treatment effects in a clinical trial vary over time, say fade out gradually. This is of particular clinical value when studying the long-term effect of a treatment. This paper proposed to extend the random effects grouped proportional hazards models by incorporating the possibly time-varying covariate effects into the model in terms of a state-space formulation. The proposed model is very flexible and the estimation can be performed using the MCMC approach with non-informative priors in the Bayesian framework. The method is applied to a data set from a prospective clinical trial investigating the effectiveness of silver diamine fluoride (SDF) and sodium fluoride (NaF) varnish in arresting active dentin caries in the Chinese preschool children. It is shown that the treatment groups with caries removal prior to the topical fluoride applications are most effective in shortening the arrest times in the first 6-month interval, but their effects fade out rapidly since then. The effects of treatment groups without caries removal prior to topical fluoride application drop at a very slow rate and can be considered as more or less constant over time. The applications of SDF solution is found to be more effective than the applications of NaF vanish.

  18. Time Interval between Trauma and Arthroscopic Meniscal Repair Has No Influence on Clinical Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wal, Robert J P; Thomassen, Bregje J W; Swen, Jan-Willem A; van Arkel, Ewoud R A

    2016-07-01

    Arthroscopic meniscal repair is the gold standard for longitudinal peripheral meniscal tears. The time interval between trauma and meniscal repair remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate failure rates and clinical outcome of arthroscopic meniscal repair in relation to chronicity of injury. A total of 238 meniscal repairs were performed in 234 patients. Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) was reconstructed in almost all ACL-deficient knees (130 out of 133). Time interval between injury and repair was divided into acute ( 2 to  12 weeks). Patients completed postal questionnaires to evaluate clinical outcome and failure rates. Study instruments included Lysholm, Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and Tegner scoring systems. At a median follow-up of 41 months (interquartile range [IQR], 34-53 months) 55 medial and 10 lateral meniscal repairs failed (overall failure rate, 27%). There was a significant higher failure rate for medial meniscal repair (p meniscal repair has no influence on the failure rate. Differences in survival rate of meniscal repair are more dependent on location of the lesion and ACL status, rather than chronicity of injury.

  19. 中国突发环境事件时间序列分析%Time Series Analysis on suddenly-happened Environmental Accident in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范小杉; 罗宏

    2012-01-01

    突发性环境事件时间序列特征可表征环境风险管理成效及存在问题。研究表明2000年以来中国突发环境事件预防、控制与管理取得了显著成效,其中,突发性水污染事件、大气污染事件以及噪声振动危害年发生频次呈大幅度降低趋势,但固废污染事件自2003年以来的年发生频次变化不大,而其它突发性环境事件自2002年以来的年发生频次则呈快速增长态势,说明中国在强调突发性水环境和大气环境事件监管的同时,还需加强固废污染事件及其它类型突发环境事件的监控与管理。%the time series analysis on suddenly happened environmental accidents reflects not only the efficiency but also the existing problem of environmental risk management~ The research showed that Chinese environmental accident prevention, control and management have achieved remarkable results since 2000, the yearly frequency of Water pollution, air pollution and noise pollution occurrence have been decreasing obviously, but the frequency of the solid wastes pollution has been remaining stable since 2003, and the frequency of other types of environmental accidents having been increasing. This indicated that the solid wastes pollution and other types of environmental accidents should also get the same attention at the same time of strengthen Monitoring and management on water and air pollution in China.

  20. Survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surface of airless bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-11-01

    Rock boulders are typical features of the surfaces of many airless bodies, so the possibility of estimating their potential survival times may provide insights into the rates of surface-modification processes. As an opening point of this study we employ estimates of the survival times of meter-sized boulders on the surface of the Moon based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age (Basilevsky et al., 2013), and apply them, with necessary corrections, to boulders on other bodies. In this approach the major factor of rock destruction is considered to be impacts of meteorites. However another factor of the rock destruction, thermal fatigue due to day-night cycling, does exist and it was claimed by Delbo et al. (2014) as being more important than meteorite impacts. They concluded this on the basis of known presence of fine material on the surface of small asteroids, claiming that due to extremely low gravity on those bodies, the products of meteorite bombardment should leave these bodies, and thus their presence indicates that the process of thermal fatigue should be much more effective there. Delbo et al. (2014) made laboratory experiments on heating-cooling centimeter-sized samples of chondrites and, applying some assumptions and theoretical modeling concluded that, for example, at 1 AU distance from the Sun, the lifetime of 10 cm rock fragments on asteroids with period of rotation from 2.2 to 6 h should be only ~103 to 104 years (that is ~3.5×106 to 1.5×107 thermal cycles) and the larger the rock, the faster it should be destroyed. In response to those conclusions we assessed the results of earlier laboratory experiments, which show that only a part of comminuted material produced by high-velocity impacts into solid rocks is ejected from the crater while another part is not ejected but stays exposed on the target surface and is present in its subsurface. This means that the presence of

  1. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  2. Long-Time Survival of a Patient with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Soldić

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. It does not cause any symptoms in the early stage, and later symptoms are nonspecific, thus the disease is usually diagnosed when already advanced. In 2008, pancreatic cancer ranked eighth on the list of the 10 most common cancers among men in Croatia and tenth on the list of the most common cancers among Croatian women. Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, with a survival time of only 6–8 months for metastatic disease. Gemcitabine is the standard chemotherapeutic option. Other chemotherapeutic agents include5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. In this paper, we present a case of a patient diagnosed with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, who is still alive and currently receives his fourth line of chemotherapy 5 years after the diagnosis. Following disease progression on gemcitabine chemotherapy, he was treated with chemoradiotherapy which, however, had no effect. We then applied cisplatin monochemotherapy which offered excellent disease control, was well tolerated by the patient and, although somewhat obsolete in this form, showed to be a valuable chemotherapeutic option.

  3. Chaotic Dynamics of Comet 1P/Halley; Lyapunov Exponent and Survival Time Expectancy

    CERN Document Server

    Muñoz-Gutiérrez, M A; Pichardo, B

    2014-01-01

    The orbital elements of comet Halley are known to a very high precision, suggesting that the calculation of its future dynamical evolution is straightforward. In this paper we seek to characterize the chaotic nature of the present day orbit of comet Halley and to quantify the timescale over which its motion can be predicted confidently. In addition, we attempt to determine the timescale over which its present day orbit will remain stable. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of test particles in orbits similar to that of comet Halley are carried out with the Mercury 6.2 code. On the basis of these we construct survival time maps to assess the absolute stability of Halley's orbit, frequency analysis maps, to study the variability of the orbit and we calculate the Lyapunov exponent for the orbit for variations in initial conditions at the level of the present day uncertainties in our knowledge of its orbital parameters. On the basis of our calculations of the Lyapunov exponent for comet Halley, the chaotic nat...

  4. Dietary magnesium and copper affect survival time and neuroinflammation in chronic wasting disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Tracy A; Spraker, Terry R; Gidlewski, Thomas; Cummings, Bruce; Hill, Dana; Kong, Qingzhong; Balachandran, Aru; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Zabel, Mark D

    2016-05-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD), the only known wildlife prion disease, affects deer, elk and moose. The disease is an ongoing and expanding problem in both wild and captive North American cervid populations and is difficult to control in part due to the extreme environmental persistence of prions, which can transmit disease years after initial contamination. The role of exogenous factors in CWD transmission and progression is largely unexplored. In an effort to understand the influence of environmental and dietary constituents on CWD, we collected and analyzed water and soil samples from CWD-negative and positive captive cervid facilities, as well as from wild CWD-endozootic areas. Our analysis revealed that, when compared with CWD-positive sites, CWD-negative sites had a significantly higher concentration of magnesium, and a higher magnesium/copper (Mg/Cu) ratio in the water than that from CWD-positive sites. When cevidized transgenic mice were fed a custom diet devoid of Mg and Cu and drinking water with varied Mg/Cu ratios, we found that higher Mg/Cu ratio resulted in significantly longer survival times after intracerebral CWD inoculation. We also detected reduced levels of inflammatory cytokine gene expression in mice fed a modified diet with a higher Mg/Cu ratio compared to those on a standard rodent diet. These findings indicate a role for dietary Mg and Cu in CWD pathogenesis through modulating inflammation in the brain. PMID:27216881

  5. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China. PMID:24781332

  6. A class of estimators of the mean survival time from interval censored data with application to linear regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    A class of estimators of the mean survival time with interval censored data are studied by unbiased transformation method.The estimators are constructed based on the observations to ensure unbiasedness in the sense that the estimators in a certain class have the same expectation as the mean survival time.The estimators have good properties such as strong consistency (with the rate of O(n-1/2 (log log n)1/2)) and asymptotic normality.The application to linear regression is considered and the simulation reports are given.

  7. Cardiac arrest teams and time of day: effects on surviving in-hospital resuscitation

    OpenAIRE

    Christ M; Dierschke W; von Auenmueller KI; van Bracht M; Grett M; Trappe HJ

    2014-01-01

    Martin Christ, Wolfgang Dierschke, Katharina Isabel von Auenmueller, Marc van Bracht, Martin Grett, Hans-Joachim Trappe Department of Cardiology and Angiology, Marienhospital Herne, Ruhr – University Bochum, Herne, Germany Objectives: Little is known about the factors that influence survival following in-hospital resuscitation, but previous investigations have suggested that in-hospital resuscitations outside of regular working hours are associated with worse survival rates. Materi...

  8. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  9. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea.

  10. Iodine isotopes in precipitation: Four-year time series variations before and after 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P H T; Hou, Xiaolin; Watanabe, Akira; Sanderson, David C W; Cresswell, Alan; Yamaguchi, Katsuhiko

    2016-05-01

    Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for (127)I and (129)I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived (129)I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets, (127)I and (129)I concentrations between October 2012 and October 2014 varied from 0.5 to 10 μg/L and from 1.2 × 10(8) to 6.9 × 10(9) atoms/L respectively, resulting in (129)I/(127)I atomic ratio ranges from 3 × 10(-8) to 2 × 10(-7). The (127)I concentrations were in good agreement with those in the previous period from March 2011 to September 2012, whereas the (129)I concentrations and (129)I/(127)I ratios followed declining trends since the accident. Although (129)I concentrations in five samples during the period of 2013-2014 have approached the pre-accident levels, (129)I concentrations in most samples remained higher values in winter and spring-summer. The high (129)I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up (129)I from contaminated soil and water, respectively. Long-term declining rate suggests that contribution of the Fukushima-derived (129)I to the atmosphere would become less since 2014.

  11. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  12. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    OpenAIRE

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures known to us, the various road locations are treated as isolated spots. With small accident figures it is difficult to detect such places in the known procedures. An alternative procedure starts from...

  13. How to prolong the survival time of postoperative rectal cancer and toprevent its recurrence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Da Wei Liu; Lei Xu; Ji Wei Shen; Er Min Jia

    2000-01-01

    AIM To explore the method to prolong the survival of patients with postoperative rectal cancer and toprevent its recurrence.METHODS To analyze the reasons of recurrence after curative resections for rectal cancer of 399 patients.RESULTS Ninety out of 399 patients who received curative excision died of relapse of the tumor. Pelvicrecurrence was found in most of the patients followed by liver and pulmonany metastasis. The survival timein Dukes A was the longest and in Dukes C the shortest. The survival period was 12 months longer, in thepatients receiving pre-operative radiotherapy than that did not. Inadequate excision of the primary tumor orthe draining lymph nodes was the main cause for local recurrence.CONCLUSION Adequate surgery and adjuvant therapy are the most effective methods to prolong thesurvival of patients with postoperative rectal cancer and to prevent its recurrence.

  14. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event response using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Vansteelandt, S.; Tchetgen, E. J. Tchetgen;

    2016-01-01

    of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this paper, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi......-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies...

  15. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  16. Studies on the Relationship between Neuroendocrine Cellular Differentiation in Gastric Cancers and Post-operative Survival Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine the ultrastructure of gastric cancer cells by the electron microscope, in order to assess the relationship between neuroendocrine differentiation and post-operative survival time.METHODS NSE, Syn and CgA immunohistochemical labeling was conducted in 168 cases with a common-type of gastric cancer. Electron microscopy was performed in 80 cases with positive immunohistochemical labeling.These cases were followed-up for over 5 years and the post-operative survival data analyzed.RESULTS Neuroendocrine granules were found by electron microscopy in 39 cases. The rate of neuroendocrine differentiation found was 23% (39/168), using routine diagnostic criteria and electron microscopy (REM).The post-operative survival time of gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation was significantly shorter (P=0.0032) compared to those without neuroendocrine differentiation.CONCLUSION It is of significant clinical importance to determine if the neuroendocrine cells are differentiated in gastric cancers. The gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation have a shorter post-operative survival time and a poorer prognosis. Electron microscopy is a reliable method of providing a diagnosis.

  17. Tchernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First, R.M.B.K type reactors are described. Then, safety problems are dealt with reactor control, behavior during transients, normal loss of power and behavior of the reactor in case of leak. A possible scenario of the accident of Tchernobyl is proposed: events before the explosion, possible initiators, possible scenario and events subsequent to the core meltdown (corium-concrete interaction, interaction with the groundwater table). An estimation of the source term is proposed first from the installation characteristics and the supposed scenario of the accident, and from the measurements in Europe; radiological consequences are also estimated. Radioactivity measurements (Europe, Scandinavia, Western Europe, France) are given in tables (meteorological maps and fallouts in Europe). Finally, a description of the site is given

  18. Iodine isotopes in precipitation: Four-year time series variations before and after 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.;

    2016-01-01

    Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for 127I and 129I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived 129I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets...... values in winter and spring-summer. The high 129I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up 129I from contaminated soil...... and water, respectively. Long-term declining rate suggests that contribution of the Fukushima-derived 129I to the atmosphere would become less since 2014....

  19. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  20. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  1. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O. [CEA Grenoble, 38 (France). Dept. de Thermohydraulique et de Physique; Creach, V.; Dufeil, Ph. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France); Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F. [Electricite de France, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  2. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  3. Tutorial: Survival Estimation for Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Coe?cients Using SAS and R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laine Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Survival estimates are an essential compliment to multivariable regression models for time-to-event data, both for prediction and illustration of covariate effects. They are easily obtained under the Cox proportional-hazards model. In populations defined by an initial, acute event, like myocardial infarction, or in studies with long-term followup, the proportional-hazards assumption of constant hazard ratios is frequently violated. One alternative is to fit an interaction between covariates and a prespecified function of time, implemented as a time-dependent covariate. This effectively creates a time-varying coefficient that is easily estimated in software such as SAS and R. However, the usual programming statements for survival estimation are not directly applicable. Unique data manipulation and syntax is required, but is not well documented for either software. This paper offers a tutorial in survival estimation for the time-varying coefficient model, implemented in SAS and R. We provide a macro coxtvc to facilitate estimation in SAS where the current functionality is more limited. The macro is validated in simulated data and illustrated in an application.

  4. Fundamental knowledge of radiation protection necessary for nurses at the present time of restoration from the disaster of the nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From the ICRP (2009) aspect of protection of people living in long-term contaminated area after a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency, the author discusses the title subject for expertise nursing at the restoration from the recent disaster of the nuclear power plant accident in Japan. Phases involved in the accident are the emergent and restoring period for retuning to the ordinary time. At the former phase, the reactor state is abnormal, radioactive substances are released in the environment, and emergent activities are required to prevent exposure like taking shelter indoor, evacuation, and limitation of forwarding and ingestion of food/water. For radiation management, the emergent dose of general public can be eased to 20-100 mSv, and at the latter restoration period, to 1-20 mSv/y (ICRP). Japan has defined for the former to be 20 mSv, which has brought about a heavy load like evacuation of 170 thousand people, death of patients during evacuation, unemployment, family broken up, school closing, etc. The author then mentions about the epidemiologically insignificant effect of lower dose than 200 mSv. Also mentions about the importance of mental care with an example of a housewives' anxiety in Tokyo, leading to the importance of nursing work. Further, about lost matters by fears of a small risk, like wearing the long sleeve clothes and mask in a closed room, buying foreign food rather than domestic, the misunderstood long retention of Cs-137 in the body because of its long physical half life, etc. Finally, the author lists home-pages for question and anxiety about radiological problems. (T.T.)

  5. Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Grant; Urdinola, B Piedad

    2010-02-01

    Recent studies demonstrate procyclical mortality in wealthy countries, but there are reasons to expect a countercyclical relationship in developing nations. We investigate how child survival in Colombia responds to fluctuations in world Arabica coffee prices - and document starkly procyclical child deaths. In studying this result's behavioral underpinnings, we highlight that: (1) The leading determinants of child health are inexpensive but require considerable time, and (2) As the value of time declines with falling coffee prices, so does the relative price of health. We find a variety of direct evidence consistent with the primacy of time in child health production. PMID:22090662

  6. Health Problems in Radiation Accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors define a radiation accident as a situation which has led or could have led to the unexpected irradiation of persons or contamination of the environment over and above the levels accepted as safe. Several categories of accidents are distinguished as a function of the consequences to be expected. The suggested system of classifying accidents makes it possible to plan post-accident measures within a single system of 'concentric circles', taking into account at the same time whether it will be possible to carry out the post-accident measures unaided or whether it will be necessary to bring in additional manpower and resources from outside. The authors consider the possibility of countering the effects of accidents as a function of their nature, with reference to the biological, economic and psychological aspects. They evaluate the part played by the health service in planning and carrying out accident prevention measures, and consider the function of radiological units attached to epidemiological health stations ; these units are essentially centres providing for precautionary measures to avert accidents and action to counter their effects. (author)

  7. Status of the Real-time On-line Decision Support (RODOS) system for off-site emergency management after nuclear and radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the auspices of its EURATOM Research Framework Programmes, the European Commission (EC) has supported the development of the comprehensive decision support system RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents for more than a decade. Many national research programmes, research institutes and industrial collaborators contributed to the project, in particular the German Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (B MU). The RODOS system can be applied to accidental releases into the atmosphere and various aquatic environments within and across Europe. It provides coherent support before, during and after such a release to assist analysis of the situation and decision making about short and long-term countermeasures for mitigating the consequences with respect to health, the environment, and the economy. Appropriate interfaces exist with local and national radiological monitoring data systems, meteorological measurements and forecasts, and for the adaptation to local, regional and national conditions in Europe. Within the European Integrated Project EURANOS of the sixth Framework Programme, the RODOS system is being enhanced, among others, for radiological emergencies such as dirty bombs attacks, transport accidents and satellite crashes by extensions of the nuclide list, the source term characteristics and the atmospheric dispersion model

  8. Survey report on personal dose equivalent and indoor and outdoor staying time for children in the southern Miyagi Prefecture after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A survey of personal dose equivalent for children using optically stimulated luminescent dosemeters has been carried out in the southern Miyagi Prefecture from 1 September 2011, about a half year after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The survey results until November 2013 are summarized in this paper. This is the only survey report in Miyagi Prefecture as any survey of personal dose equivalent was not carried out in this area. Findings of indoor and outdoor staying time (home and school) for children were also reported. It was found that the most time (14 - 15 hours a day) was spent at the inside of their houses for all ages. Children stay at the inside of their houses and school about 21 hours a day in a total. These results are quite important to explain individual dose for children and to take measures to reduce exposure dose as well. (author)

  9. Safe time to warm ischemia and posttransplant survival of liver graft from non-heart-beating donors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Shun He; Yi Ma; Lin-Wei Wu; Wei-Qiang Ju; Jin-Lang Wu; Rui-De Hu; Gui-Hua Chen; Jie-Fu Huang

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To explore the dynamical changes of histology,histochemistry, energy metabolism, liver microcirculation,liver function and posttransplant survival of liver graft in rats under different warm ischemia times (WIT) and predict the maximum limitation of liver graft to warm ischemia.METHODS: According to WIT, the rats were randomized into 7 groups, with WIT of 0, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60 min,respectively. The recovery changes of above-mentioned indices were observed or measured after liver transplantation. The graft survival and postoperative complications in each subgroup were analyzed.RESULTS: Liver graft injury was reversible and gradually resumed normal structure and function after reperfusion when WIT was less than 30 min. In terms of graft survival,there was no significant difference between subgroups within 30 min WIT. When WIT was prolonged to 45 min,the recipients' long-term survival was severely insulted,and both function and histological structure of liver graft developed irreversible damage when WIT was prolonged to 60 min.CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that rat liver graft can be safely subjected to warm ischemia within 30 min.The levels of ATP, energy charge, activities of glycogen,enzyme-histochemistry of liver graft and its recovery potency after reperfusion may serve as the important criteria to evaluate the quality of liver graft.

  10. OER by survival time for Cf-252, low dose rate Cs-137 and acute Co-60 for LSA lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    RBE and OER were determined for LSA tumor by survival time assay. The RBEn of Cf vs. Cs-137 was 5.8 and the OER was ∼ 1.4 by experiments performed in vitro and assayed in vivo. When tumor was irradiated in an advanced state in the living mouse, the RBEn was determined to be 5.2 vs. Cs-137. The RBE for hypoxic tumor is larger than for the oxic tumor for Cf-252 neutron irradiation. (Auth.)

  11. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body γ irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body γ irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice

  12. Rigorous bounds on survival times in circular accelerators and efficient computation of fringe-field transfer maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analyzing stability of particle motion in storage rings contributes to the general field of stability analysis in weakly nonlinear motion. A method which we call pseudo invariant estimation (PIE) is used to compute lower bounds on the survival time in circular accelerators. The pseudeo invariants needed for this approach are computed via nonlinear perturbative normal form theory and the required global maxima of the highly complicated multivariate functions could only be rigorously bound with an extension of interval arithmetic. The bounds on the survival times are large enough to the relevant; the same is true for the lower bounds on dynamical aperatures, which can be computed. The PIE method can lead to novel design criteria with the objective of maximizing the survival time. A major effort in the direction of rigourous predictions only makes sense if accurate models of accelerators are available. Fringe fields often have a significant influence on optical properties, but the computation of fringe-field maps by DA based integration is slower by several orders of magnitude than DA evaluation of the propagator for main-field maps. A novel computation of fringe-field effects called symplectic scaling (SYSCA) is introduced. It exploits the advantages of Lie transformations, generating functions, and scaling properties and is extremely accurate. The computation of fringe-field maps is typically made nearly two orders of magnitude faster. (orig.)

  13. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  14. Reply to the Comment on "Resonant Spectra and the Time Evolution of the Survival and Nonescape Probabilities"

    CERN Document Server

    García-Calderón, G; Moshinsky, Marcos

    1998-01-01

    In our paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 74, 337 (1995)], we derived an exact expression for the survival and nonescape probabilities as an expansion in terms of resonant states. It was shown that these quantities exhibit at long times a different behavior. Although both decay as a power law, they have different exponents. In this paper we show that, contrary to the claim in the Comment of R. M. Cavalcanti (quant-ph/9704023), the nonescape probability decay for long times as an inverse power law.

  15. Wind speed during migration influences the survival, timing of breeding, and productivity of a neotropical migrant, Setophaga petechia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Drake

    Full Text Available Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia, that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations.

  16. Simple parametric survival analysis with anonymized register data: A cohort study with truncated and interval censored event and censoring times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To preserve patient anonymity, health register data may be provided as binned data only. Here we consider as example, how to estimate mean survival time after a diagnosis of metastatic colorectal cancer from Norwegian register data on time to death or censoring binned into 30 day intervals. All events occurring in the first three months (90 days after diagnosis were removed to achieve comparability with a clinical trial. The aim of the paper is to develop and implement a simple, and yet flexible method for analyzing such interval censored and truncated data. Methods Considering interval censoring a missing data problem, we implement a simple multiple imputation strategy that allows flexible sensitivity analyses with respect to the shape of the censoring distribution. To allow identification of appropriate parametric models, a χ2-goodness-of-fit test--also imputation based--is derived and supplemented with diagnostic plots. Uncertainty estimates for mean survival times are obtained via a simulation strategy. The validity and statistical efficiency of the proposed method for varying interval lengths is investigated in a simulation study and compared with simpler alternatives. Results Mean survival times estimated from the register data ranged from 1.2 (SE = 0.09 to 3.2 (0.31 years depending on period of diagnosis and choice of parametric model. The shape of the censoring distribution within intervals did generally not influence results, whereas the choice of parametric model did, even when different models fit the data equally well. In simulation studies both simple midpoint imputation and multiple imputation yielded nearly unbiased analyses (relative biases of -0.6% to 9.4% and confidence intervals with near-nominal coverage probabilities (93.4% to 95.7% for censoring intervals shorter than six months. For 12 month censoring intervals, multiple imputation provided better protection against bias, and coverage probabilities

  17. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn;

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  18. Trichinella spiralis infection changes immune response in mice performed abdominal heterotopic cardiac transplantation and prolongs cardiac allograft survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Gengguo; Deng, Ronghai; Yao, Jianping; Liao, Bing; Chen, Yinghua; Wu, Zhongdao; Hu, Hongxing; Zhou, Xingwang; Ma, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Allograft rejection has been an obstacle for long-term survival of patients for many years. Current strategies for transplant rejection are not as optimal as we expected, especially for long-term treatments. Trichinella spiralis, a nematode parasitized in mammalian muscle and as an invader, maintains harmonious with host in the long term by evading host immune attack. To determine whether T. spiralis infection impacts on allograft rejection, we performed mice cardiac allograft transplantation model by using BALB/c (H-2(b)) mice as donors and C57BL/6 (H-2(b)) mice orally infected with 300 muscle larvae for 28 days as recipients. Graft survival was monitored by daily palpation of the abdomen; histologic change was observed by H&E stain; and CD4(+), CD8(+), CD4(+)IFN-γ(+), and CD4(+)IL-17(+) T cells and regulatory T cells were examined with the use of flow cytometry. Serum cytokine levels were measured by Luminex. Finally, we found that mean survival time of cardiac allografts in T. spiralis group was 23.40 ± 1.99 days, while the vehicle control group was 10.60 ± 0.75 days. Furthermore, we observed alleviated histological changes in the heart allograft, decreased corresponding CD8(+) T cells, suppressed Th1 and Th17 responses, and increased regulatory T cell frequency in a murine cardiac transplantation model at day 7 post-transplantation in experimental group. These data suggest that T. spiralis infection resulted in prolonged allograft survival following murine cardiac transplantation, with suppressed Th1/Th17 responses and augmented regulatory T cells. PMID:26481486

  19. Scoping accident(s) for emergency planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At the request of the Conference of State Radiation Control Program Director's (CRCPD), in November 1976 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission formed a joint Task Force with representatives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to answer a number of questions posed by the States regarding emergency planning. This Task Force held monthly meetings through November 1977. In December 1977 a draft report was prepared for limited distribution for review and comment by selected State and local organizations. The NRC/EPA Task Force deliberations centered on the CRCPD request for '... a determination of the most severe accident basis for which radiological emergency response plans should be developed by offsite agencies...' in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. Federal Interagency guidance to the States in this regard has been that the scoping accident should be the most serious conservatively analyzed accident considered for siting purposes, as exemplified in the Commission's Regulations at 10 CFR Part 100 and the NRC staffs Regulatory Guides 1.3 and 1.4, and as presented in license applicant's Safety Analysis Reports and the USNRC Staffs Safety Evaluation Reports. The draft report of the Task Force amplifies on this recommendation: to present a clearer picture of its import and introduces the concept of protective action zones (PAZs) within which detailed emergency plans should be developed; one zone for the plume exposure pathway and a second, larger zone for contamination pathways. The time dependence of potential releases and atmospheric transport, and important radionuclide groups of possible import are also discussed in the draft Task Force report. A status report regarding this effort, as of June 1978, will be presented. (author)

  20. Arsenic trioxide inhibits accelerated allograft rejection mediated by alloreactive CD8(+) memory T cells and prolongs allograft survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun; Guan, Tianjun; Gao, Chang; Lin, Yingying; Yan, Guoliang; Zhu, Maoshu; Lv, Chongshan; Xia, Junjie; Qi, Zhongquan

    2015-09-01

    CD8(+) memory T (Tm) cells are a significant barrier to transplant tolerance induction in alloantigen-primed recipients, and are insensitive to existing clinical immunosuppressants. Here, we studied the inhibition of CD8(+) Tm cells by arsenic trioxide (As2O3) for the first time. Alloantigen-primed CD8(+) Tm cells were transferred to T cell immunodeficient nude mice. The mice were subjected to heart allotransplantation, and treated with As2O3. The transplant survival time was determined, and the inhibitory effects of As2O3 on CD8(+) Tm cell-mediated immune rejection were assessed through serological studies and inspection of the transplanted heart and lymphoid organs. We found that As2O3 treatment prolonged the mean survival time of the graft and reduced the number of CD8(+) Tm cells in the spleen and lymph nodes. The expression of the genes encoding interleukin (IL)-2, and IFN-γ was reduced, while expression of IL-10 and transforming growth factor-β was increased in the transplant. Our findings show that As2O3 treatment inhibits allograft rejection mediated by alloreactive CD8(+) Tm cells in the mouse heart transplantation model.

  1. No Way Back: Maximizing survival time below the Schwarzschild event horizon

    CERN Document Server

    Lewis, Geraint F

    2007-01-01

    It has long been known that once you cross the event horizon of a black hole, your destiny lies at the central singularity, irrespective of what you do. Furthermore, your demise will occur in a finite amount of proper time. In this paper, the use of rockets in extending the amount of time before the collision with the central singularity is examined. In general, the use of such rockets can increase your remaining time, but only up to a maximum value; this is at odds with the ``more you struggle, the less time you have'' statement that is sometimes discussed in relation to black holes. The derived equations are simple to solve numerically and the framework can be employed as a teaching tool for general relativity.

  2. A time and motion study of patients presenting at the accident and emergency department at Mater Dei Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellul Robert

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To carry out a time and motion study of patients presenting at the Emergency Department (ED by measuring waiting times at the ED dept throughout the day. The objectives were: • to determine whether waiting times are prolonged, and • if prolonged, at which station(s bottlenecks occur most often in terms of duration and frequency. Results will be compared to the United Kingdom guidelines of stay at the emergency department. Methods A group of 11 medical students monitored all patients who attended ED between 0600 hours on the 25th August and 0600 hours on the 1st September 2008. For each 24 hour period, students were assigned to the triage room and the 3 priority areas where they monitored all patient-related activity, movement and waiting times so that length of stay (LOS could be recorded. The key data recorded included patient characteristics, waiting times at various ED process stages, tests performed, specialist consultations and follow up until admitted, discharged, or referred to another hospital area. Average waiting times were calculated for each priority area. Bottle-necks and major limiting factors were identified. Results were compared against the United Kingdom benchmarks - i.e. 1 hour until first assessment, and 4 hours before admitting/discharge. Results 1779 patients presented to the ED in the week monitored. As expected, patients in the lesser priority areas (i.e. 2 & 3 waited longer before being assessed by staff. Patients requiring laboratory and imaging investigations had a prolonged length of stay, which varied depending on specific tests ordered. Specialty consultation was associated with longer waiting times. A major bottleneck identified was waiting times for inpatient admission. Conclusions In conclusion, it was found that 30.3% of priority 1 patients, 86.3% of priority 2 patients and 76.8% of priority 3 patients waited more than 1 hour for first assessment. We conclude by proposing several changes

  3. Assessment of chronic effects of tebuconazole on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna after different exposure times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancho, E; Villarroel, M J; Ferrando, M D

    2016-02-01

    The effect of the fungicide tebuconazole (0.41, 0.52, 0.71 and 1.14mg/L) on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna organisms was monitored using 14 and 21 days exposure tests. A third experiment was performed by exposing D. magna to the fungicide for 14 days followed by 7 days of recovery (14+7). In order to test fungicide effects on D. magna, parameters as survival, mean whole body length, mean total number of neonates per female, mean number of broods per female, mean brood size per female, time to first brood/reproduction and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were used. Reproduction was seriously affected by tebuconazole. All tebuconazole concentrations tested affected the number of broods per female and day to first brood. At 14-days test, number of neonates per female and body size decreased by concentrations of tebuconazole higher than 0.52mg/L, whereas at 21-days test both parameters were affected at all the concentrations tested. Survival of the daphnids after 14 days fungicide exposure did not exhibited differences among experimental and control groups. In this experiment r value was reduced (in a 22%) when animals were exposed to concentrations of 0.71mg/L and 1.14mg/L. Survival of daphnids exposed during 21 days to 1.14mg/L declined, and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) decreased in a 30 % for tebuconazole concentrations higher than 0.41mg/L. Longevity of daphnids pre-exposed to tebuconazole for 14 days and 7 days in clean water did not show differences from control values and all of them survived the 21 days of the test. However, after 7 days in fungicide free medium animals were unable to restore control values for reproductive parameters and length. The maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) was calculated using the r values as parameter of evaluation. MATC estimations were 0.61mg/L and 0.46mg/L for 14 and 21 days, respectively. Results showed that the number of neonates per female was the highest sensitive

  4. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  5. Effects of flavorings, storage conditions, and storage time on survival of Staphylococcus aureus in Sürk cheese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masatcioğlu, Tuğrul M; Avşar, Yahya K

    2005-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the cumulative effects of flavorings (chili pepper, thyme, mint, cumin, nutmeg, allspice, clove, cinnamon, black pepper, salt, and hot red pepper paste), storage conditions, and storage time on the survival of Staphylococcus aureus in Sürk cheese and to monitor the associated chemical changes. Sürk cheese, a traditional Turkish cheese, was produced by heating diluted nonfat yogurt and adding flavorings to the resultant acid-heat curd. The cheese was later inoculated with S. aureus, shaped conically, and stored aerobically for mold growth and anaerobically in olive oil for 30 days at room temperature. The moisture content of aerobically stored cheese decreased over time and led to increases in total solids, salt, salt-in-moisture, and ash content during ripening (P < 0.05). The presence or absence of the flavorings had no significant effect, whereas storage conditions and storage duration decreased the survival of S. aureus (P < 0.05). PMID:16013393

  6. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre; Pilecki, Bartosz; Duelund, Lars; Marcussen, Niels; Christesen, Henrik Thybo

    2016-01-01

    Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, pVitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted. PMID:27571350

  7. Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Edgar Oscar

    2013-01-01

    A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

  8. The bond survival time variation of polymorphic amyloid fibrils in the mechanical insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Myeongsang; Baek, Inchul; Chang, Hyun Joon; Yoon, Gwonchan; Na, Sungsoo

    2014-04-01

    The structure-property relationships of biological materials such as amyloid fibrils are important to developing therapeutic strategies for amyloid-related diseases. The mechanical characterization of biological materials can provide insight into such relationships. In this study, polymorphic human islet polypeptide (hIAPP) fibrils were constructed with molecular modeling, and a constant-force bending simulation was performed to characterize the different mechanical behaviors of polymorphic hIAPP protofibrils. Our simulation results showed that, owing to their different intramolecular interactions, the fracture times of polymorphic hIAPP protofibrils depend on polymorphic structures.

  9. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. PMID:26687540

  10. Cytomegalovirus infection does not impact on survival or time to first treatment in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Helen Marie; Damery, Sarah; Hudson, Christopher; Maurer, Matthew J; Cerhan, James R; Pachnio, Annette; Begum, Jusnara; Slager, Susan L; Fegan, Christopher; Man, Stephen; Pepper, Christopher; Shanafelt, Tait D; Pratt, Guy; Moss, Paul A H

    2016-08-01

    Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a widely prevalent herpes virus which establishes a state of chronic infection. The establishment of CMV-specific immunity controls viral reactivation and leads to the accumulation of very large numbers of virus-specific T cells which come to dominate the immune repertoire. There is concern that this may reduce the immune response to heterologous infections and HCMV infection has been associated with reduced survival in elderly people. Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) suffer from a state of immune suppression but have a paradoxical increase in the magnitude of the CMV-specific T cell and humoral immune response. As such, there is now considerable interest in how CMV infection impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL. Utilizing a large prospective cohort of patients with B-CLL (n = 347) we evaluated the relationship between HCMV seropositivity and patient outcome. HCMV seropositive patients had significantly worse overall survival than HCMV negative patients in univariate analysis (HR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.34-3.88; P = 0.002). However, CMV seropositive patients were 4 years older than seronegative donors and this survival difference was lost in multivariate modeling adjusted for age and other validated prognostic markers (P = 0.34). No significant difference was found in multivariate modeling between HCMV positive and negative patients in relation to the time to first treatment (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.68-1.84; P = 0.65). These findings in a second independent cohort of 236 B-CLL patients were validated. In conclusion no evidence that HCMV impacts on the clinical outcome of patients with B-CLL was found. Am. J. Hematol. 91:776-781, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27124884

  11. Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J;

    2014-01-01

    stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259......BACKGROUND: Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1...

  12. Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (扶正抗白冲剂) on Immune Function and Survival Time in Minimal Residual Leukemia Model Mice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许勇钢; 麻柔; 胡乃平; 刘锋; 杨经敏; 马玲; 胡晓梅

    2001-01-01

    To observe the effects of Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (FZKBG) on immune function and survival time in minimal residual leukemia (MRL) model mice and explore its mechanism. Methods: MRL model mice were established by hypodermic inoculation with L7212 cells 1×106 following intraperitoneal injection of cytoxan (CTX) 250 mg/kg 3 days later, and divided into the control group and FZKBG treated group. The changes of T-lymphocyte subsets, including CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+, and the survival time in model mice were observed. Results: Compared with the control, FZKBG could obviously increase both the percentage and absolute value of CD3+ and CD4+ lymphocytes and prolong the survival time of model mice, the prolongation rate being 29.6% - 60.4%. Conclusion: FZKBG could markedly prolong the survival time of MRL mice, and its mechanism might be through elevating the immunologic function and inhibiting the leukemia cells in model mice.

  13. The accident information and management system CAIRE for real time applications. Das Stoerfall-Leitsystem CAIRE fuer Echtzeitanwendungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenk, H.D.; Kluttig, H.; Witt, H. de; Kistinger, S.; Kruschel, K.P.; Knaup, A.G.

    1992-01-01

    Remote monitoring systems have increased their importance as an inherent part of environmental surveillance installations in the FRG and in other countries. The existing systems in Germany are designed to cover both, routine operation and emergency situations. They provide site specific meteorological data, gross effluent dose rates, and dose rate measurements at on-site and approximately 30 off-site locations in the vicinity of a plant. Based on such telemetric surveillance networks an advanced automatic on-line system named CAIRE (Computer Aided Response to Emergencies) has been developed as a real time emergency response tool for nuclear facilities. This tool is designed to provide decision makers with most relevant radiation exposure data of the population at risk. CAIRE allows the continuous feed-back of current measurements of environmental impacts into diagnostic calculations for bringing measurements and calculations into best correspondence. This is the main advantage of CAIRE compared to conventional emergency systems and it results in both, a consistent actual interpretation of a bulk of single measurements of dose rates and/or activity concentrations, and a more realistic set of model parameters. Subsequently these parameters are used as input data for the evaluation of actual dose commitments and projections of them by means of real-time calculation. A second advantage is a more realistic assessment of the source term if in-plant dose rate measurements are not available due to emissions out of leckages, e.g. In such cases the assessment of the source term can be based an of-plant dose rate measurements located on the ground within a source distance between 200 and 300 m. (orig./HP).

  14. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISES, METHODS OF ADAPTATION AND SURVIVAL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Oprea

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.

  15. Radiological accidents balance in medicine; Bilan des accidents radiologiques en medecine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs.

  16. Racial Disparities in Colorectal Carcinoma Incidence, Severity and Survival Times Over 10 Years: A Retrospective Single Center Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Hafiz Muhammad Sharjeel; Tetangco, Eula; Shah, Natasha; Kabir, Christopher; Raddawi, Hareth

    2016-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States. Although studies have been performed on malignancy behavior in African Americans and Caucasians, scant data are present on other minority racial groups. Methods A retrospective single center study was performed where 1,860 patient charts with a diagnosis of CRC from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2014 were reviewed. Data collected on each patient included age, gender, ethnicity, primary site and histological stage at the time of diagnosis. Survival time over the course of 5 years was documented for patients from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2009. Comparisons were made amongst different racial groups for the above mentioned factors. Results Study population consisted of 27.09% African Americans, 65.61% Caucasians, 3.86% Hispanics, 0.54% South Asians, 1.03% Arabs, 0.54% Asians and 0.22% American Indians. Mean age of CRC presentation was found to be significantly different (P < 0.05) between the three largest racial groups: 71 years for Caucasians, 69 years for African Americans, and 61 years for Hispanics. African Americans (27.09%) and Hispanics (28.79%) presented predominantly at stage IV in comparison to other racial groups. Caucasians presented predominantly at stage III (24.84%). The rectum was the most common site of CRC across all racial groups with the exception of Asians, where sigmoid colon was the predominant site (30%). Adenocarcinoma remained the predominant cancer type in all groups. Hispanics had relatively higher incidence rate of carcinoid tumor (12.68%). Survival time analysis showed that Caucasians tend to have better survival probability over 5 years after initial diagnosis as compared to African Americans and Hispanic (P < 0.05). Conclusion There is lack of studies performed on minority racial groups in North America. Our study highlighted some important clinical differences of CRC presentation in different racial groups which are not

  17. Abundance of early functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cells does not predict AIDS-free survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid M M Schellens

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.

  18. 跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立%Construction of real-time hazards evaluation for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李二平; 尤宏; 刘宝玲; 冯玉杰

    2012-01-01

    针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准.采用AHP(层次分析法)—综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法.%In recent year, trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents have become a prominent environmental and social problem. Therefore, it is in dire need of researching on early-warning index system and risk grading for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents. The sudden water pollution accidents bring pressure on the environment, change the situation of environment and cause human beings to respond to the accident. Hence, based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, we established a forecasting index system for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents caused by soluble hazardous leakage. Futhernore, in this paper, considering the pollution accidents characters and operability principles, the forecasting index system included twelve (actors from four aspects: water environmental risk sources, health and ecological risks, trans-boundary risks and emergency decision-making commands. Then,weight value of each index of the index system was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) through consulting experts. According to "China environmental emergency contingency plans the trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels: particularly significant tans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅰ) , significant trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅱ), general trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅲ), slightly trans-boundary environmental pollution event(Ⅳ) .At the same time, grading standards of every early warning index have also been obtained by referring to the existing international standards, codes and expert advices , as well as through comparing the hazard Levels of historical environmental events, AHP evaluation and synthetically

  19. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  20. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  1. [SAFETY IN THE ELDERLY: HOME ACCIDENTS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Espinosa, Noelia M; Píriz-Campos, Rosa Ma; Cordeiro, Raú; Muñoz Bermejo, Laura; Casado Verdjo, Inés; Postigo Mota, Salvador

    2016-05-01

    Home accidents are more common in the elderly and they can have serious consequences to the injured person's health. At home, chances to suffer accidents of any type are higher, because it's the place where old people spend most of their daily time. It is important to point out that a high percentage of domestic accidents could be easily avoided by taking some simple cautions. The main aim of this paper is to know how we can prevent most common domestic accidents in the aged population: falls, burnings, poisonings and fire prevention. PMID:27405149

  2. OKT3 prophylaxis in renal grafts with prolonged cold ischemia times: association with improvement in long-term survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramowicz, D; Norman, D J; Vereerstraeten, P; Goldman, M; De Pauw, L; Vanherweghem, J L; Kinnaert, P; Kahana, L; Stuart, F P; Thistlethwaite, J R; Shield, C F; Monaco, A; Wu, S C; Haverty, T P

    1996-03-01

    The data on patients participating in two randomized, prospective studies with similar immunosuppressive regimens were updated and combined to evaluate the long-term effects of OKT3 according to cold ischemia time ( 24 hr). Among 159 patients in the OKT3 and 153 in the cyclosporine A (CsA) group, 8 and 12 deaths occurred, respectively (P = NS). In patients with cold ischemia > 24 hours, OKT3 prophylaxis resulted in a lower mean number of rejection episodes per patient than did CsA prophylaxis within one year (mean +/- SEM: 0.87 +/- 0.11 vs. 1.35 +/- 0.14, respectively; P = 0.008) and within five years (1.07 +/- 0.12 vs. 1.49 +/- 0.15, respectively; P = 0.032). In contrast, rejection incidences in patients with cold ischemia 24 hours, OKT3 patients had significantly higher graft survival than CsA patients at two years (84% vs. 64%, respectively) and at five years (71% vs. 56%, respectively; P = 0.045). Significant differences were not observed in recipients of kidneys with cold ischemia times < or = 24 hours. In conclusion, patients receiving renal grafts with long cold ischemia times strongly benefit from OKT3 prophylaxis. PMID:8648918

  3. 基于图像引导的交通事故现场实时测绘方法%Real Time Mapping Method for Traffic Accident Scene Based on Image Guide

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苗新强; 金先龙; 韩学源; 侯心一

    2013-01-01

    In order to meet the needs of mapping the accident scene diagram on the scene for traffic police, a real time mapping method for traffic accident scene investigation based on image guide was proposed. The proposed procedure consists of a transformation which transforms a single photo of the accident scene from perspective image to orthographic image using direct linear transformation method, followed by mapping accident scene information such as vehicles, bodies, fall out objects, braking traces and so on directly over the orthographic image, and finally printing out the accident scene diagram, which needs to be signed by interested parties. A typical traffic accident case was used to validate the proposed method. Compared with the traditional hands-on measurement, the proposed method can not only improve the accuracy of site investigation, but also can considerably reduce the time of on-scene data processing and drawing, which contributes to satisfying the requirement of printing out the accident scene diagram in real time.%为了满足交警现场绘制事故现场图的实际需要,提出了基于图像引导的交通事故现场实时测绘方法.首先根据直接线性变换法将事故现场照片由透视图转换为正投影图像;然后直接在正投影图像上进行车辆、人体、散落物和刹车痕迹等事故现场信息的绘制和相关尺寸的标注;最后实现现场图的打印输出并由当事人签字确认.通过典型交通事故案例验证了该方法的有效性.和传统手工测绘相比,该方法在提高事故现场勘测精度的同时,还能大大缩短数据处理和现场绘图时间,满足实时打印输出现场图的要求.

  4. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  5. Is Leptospira able to survive in raw milk? Study on the inactivation at different storage times and temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico

    2016-09-01

    The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers. PMID:26888018

  6. Expression of S1P metabolizing enzymes and receptors correlate with survival time and regulate cell migration in glioblastoma multiforme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bien-Möller, Sandra; Lange, Sandra; Holm, Tobias; Böhm, Andreas; Paland, Heiko; Küpper, Johannes; Herzog, Susann; Weitmann, Kerstin; Havemann, Christoph; Vogelgesang, Silke; Marx, Sascha; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Schroeder, Henry W.S.; Rauch, Bernhard H.

    2016-01-01

    A signaling molecule which is involved in proliferation and migration of malignant cells is the lipid mediator sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). There are hints for a potential role of S1P signaling in malignant brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) which is characterized by a poor prognosis. Therefore, a comprehensive expression analysis of S1P receptors (S1P1-S1P5) and S1P metabolizing enzymes in human GBM (n = 117) compared to healthy brain (n = 10) was performed to evaluate their role for patient's survival. Furthermore, influence of S1P receptor inhibition on proliferation and migration were studied in LN18 GBM cells. Compared to control brain, mRNA levels of S1P1, S1P2, S1P3 and S1P generating sphingosine kinase-1 were elevated in GBM. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated an association between S1P1 and S1P2 with patient's survival times. In vitro, an inhibitory effect of the SphK inhibitor SKI-II on viability of LN18 cells was shown. S1P itself had no effect on viability but stimulated LN18 migration which was blocked by inhibition of S1P1 and S1P2. The participation of S1P1 and S1P2 in LN18 migration was further supported by siRNA-mediated silencing of these receptors. Immunoblots and inhibition experiments suggest an involvement of the PI3-kinase/AKT1 pathway in the chemotactic effect of S1P in LN18 cells. In summary, our data argue for a role of S1P signaling in proliferation and migration of GBM cells. Individual components of the S1P pathway represent prognostic factors for patients with GBM. Perspectively, a selective modulation of S1P receptor subtypes could represent a therapeutic approach for GBM patients and requires further evaluation. PMID:26887055

  7. Modeling and assessment of accident consequences; development of RODOS, a real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergencies in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In cooperation with NRPB (UK), the first version 1.0 of PC COSYMA for use on advanced PCs has been released; during a training course in mid 1993, future users were educated in operating the software. The main frame version of the program package COSYMA has been up-dated with new dose conversion factors and fodd-chain data and was distributed to some 20 institutes in Europe and abroad. The comparative calculations performed within the international OECD(NEA)/CEC intercomparison of accident consequence assessment codes were analysed and documented in three reports. Furtheron, consequence assessments have been performed for the research reactor BER II (two source terms) and documented; the influence on individual doses and emergency actions of inplant accident management measures in future EPRs was quantified; within th scope of a EC/US-study on the external costs of the energy cycle, accident consequences were assessed for three source terms. (orig.)

  8. Length of time on dialysis prior to renal transplantation is a critical factor affecting patient survival after allografting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J C; Bisordi, J E; Squiers, E C; Latsha, R; Miller, J; Kelley, S E

    1992-01-01

    Within the past year at our transplant center we have had the experience of performing renal allografts in two patients older than 65 years, each of whom had been on hemodialysis more than 10 years. Both resulted in patient mortality within 90 days of transplant (one due to myocardial infarction, the other due to visceral ischemia with infarction). This prompted us to review retrospectively our own data (n = 204) and the national (UNOS) data (n = 10,971) regarding transplant outcome, patient age, and length of time on dialysis prior to renal transplantation. This review revealed that patient mortality after transplant increased with the length of end-stage renal disease (dialysis, regardless of type) independent of age, the greatest mortality occurring within the first 6 months of transplant (and not thereafter); graft survival was similar for all age cohorts analyzed. Our review of the literature reveals a paucity of articles pertaining to post-transplant mortality and length of time on dialysis prior to transplant. Our results indicate the following possible conclusions. (1) The length of time of end-stage renal disease therapy prior to renal transplantation is a significant and independent risk factor for post-transplant mortality. (2) Higher priority should be given to this factor when formulating strategies for allocation of scarce resources. (3) Patients on dialysis for extended periods of time who are elderly may be at particularly high risk. (4) Patients being considered for renal transplant should be informed of their individual risk factors for mortality post-transplant based on length of ESRD therapy. (5) Renal transplantation should be considered as early as possible in patients with ESRD (or imminent ESRD). PMID:14621760

  9. Post-radiation survival time in hepatocellular carcinoma based on predictors for CT-determined, transarterial embolization and various other parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ting-Kai Leung; Chi-Ming Lee; Li-Kuo Shen; Hsi-Chi Chen; Yu-Cheng Kuo; Jeng-Fong Chiou

    2005-01-01

    AIM: In this retrospective study of unresectable helatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we have investigated the efficacy of CTderived parameters, laboratory measurements, clinical assessment and associated transarterial embolization (TAE) as predictors of post-radiotherapy survival time.METHODS: Sixty-six patients diagnosed with unresectable HCC that had undergone radiotherapy at two medical university hospitals in Taipei were enrolled in the study.Using multivariant analysis, pre-treatment parameters including tumor number and CT confirmation of PVT and ascites were compared. Multivariant analysis was also used for comparison of the mean pretreatment values for laboratory measurements, including alpha-fetoprotein,direct/total bilirubin and GOT/GPT levels, and clinical history of chronic hepatitis across the three survival-time categories. The χ2 was used to test the significance of the relationship between survival time and TAE procedure.The Pvalues for the above tests were deemed statisticallysignificant where P<0.05.RESULTS: Portal vein thrombosis (P = 0.032) and ascites (P<0.05) were negative predictors of post-radiation survival time. Low-grade liver cirrhosis (A or B), lower tumor volume and low levels of AFT, GOT/GPT, and total bilirubin were predictors of longer post-radiation survival time (P<0.05).CONCLUSION: The CT and clinical and laboratory assessment provide a reference for, and enable estimation of, probable survival times in HCC patients after radiotherapy. Tumor volume, severity of liver cirrhosis,status with respect to portal vein thrombosis and ascites and AFT, GOT/GPT and total bilirubin values were significant predictors of survival in this study.

  10. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  11. Supervisor's accident investigation handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This pamphlet was prepared by the Environmental Health and Safety Department (EH and S) of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) to provide LBL supervisors with a handy reference to LBL's accident investigation program. The publication supplements the Accident and Emergencies section of LBL's Regulations and Procedures Manual, Pub. 201. The present guide discusses only accidents that are to be investigated by the supervisor. These accidents are classified as Type C by the Department of Energy (DOE) and include most occupational injuries and illnesses, government motor-vehicle accidents, and property damages of less than $50,000

  12. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC......); 59% above 0.08%. In all cases where a pillion passenger was killed, the operator of the motorcycle had a BAC greater than 0.08%. Of the killed counterparts 2 were non-intoxicated, 2 had a BAC greater than 0.08%, and 4 were not tested. The results advocate that the law should restrict alcohol...

  13. Severe accident management guidelines tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe Accident is addressed by means of a great number of documents such as guidelines, calculation aids and diagnostic trees. The response methodology often requires the use of several documents at the same time while Technical Support Centre members need to assess the appropriate set of equipment within the adequate mitigation strategies. In order to facilitate the response, TECNATOM has developed SAMG TOOL, initially named GGAS TOOL, which is an easy to use computer program that clearly improves and accelerates the severe accident management. The software is designed with powerful features that allow the users to focus on the decision-making process. Consequently, SAMG TOOL significantly improves the severe accident training, ensuring a better response under a real situation. The software is already installed in several Spanish Nuclear Power Plants and trainees claim that the methodology can be followed easier with it, especially because guidelines, calculation aids, equipment information and strategies availability can be accessed immediately (authors)

  14. Framework for accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Accident management is an essential element of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Integration Plan for the closure of severe accident issues. This element will consolidate the results from other key elements; such as the Individual Plant Examination (IPE), the Containment Performance Improvement, and the Severe Accident Research Programs, in a form that can be used to enhance the safety programs for nuclear power plants. The NRC is currently conducting an Accident Management Program that is intended to aid in defining the scope and attributes of an accident management program for nuclear power plants. The accident management plan will ensure that a plant specific program is developed and implemented to promote the most effective use of available utility resources (people and hardware) to prevent and mitigate severe accidents. Hardware changes or other plant modifications to reduce the frequency of severe accidents are not a central aim of this program. To accomplish the outlined objectives, the NRC has developed an accident management framework that is comprised of five elements: (1) accident management strategies, (2) training, (3) guidance and computational aids, (4) instrumentation, and (5) delineation of decision making responsibilities. A process for the development of an accident management program has been identified using these NRC framework elements

  15. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides Cs-137 and I-131 measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

    OpenAIRE

    N. I. Kristiansen; A. Stohl; G. Wotawa

    2012-01-01

    Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement d...

  16. 46 CFR 126.110 - Inspection after accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inspection after accident. 126.110 Section 126.110... CERTIFICATION General § 126.110 Inspection after accident. (a) The owner or operator of an OSV shall make the vessel available for inspection by a marine inspector— (1) Each time an accident occurs, or a defect...

  17. A Comparison between Accelerated Failure-time and Cox Pro-portional Hazard Models in Analyzing the Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali ZARE

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Gastric cancer is the one of the most prevalent reason of cancer-related death in the world. Survival of patients after surgery involves identifying risk factors. There are various models to detect the effect of risk factors on patients’ survival. The present study aims at evaluating these models.Methods: Data from 330 gastric cancer patients diagnosed at the Iran cancer institute during 1995-99 and followed up the end of 2011 were analyzed. The survival status of these patients in 2011 was determined by reopening the files as well as phone calls and the effect of various factors such as demographic, clinical, treatment, and post-surgical on pa-tients’ survival was studied. To compare various models of survival, Akaike Information Criterion and Cox-Snell Re-siduals were used. STATA 11 was used for data analyses.Results: Based on Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion, the exponential (AIC=969.14 and Gom-pertz (AIC=970.70 models were more efficient than other accelerated failure-time models. Results of Cox propor-tional hazard model as well as the analysis of accelerated failure-time models showed that variables such as age (at di-agnosis, marital status, relapse, number of supplementary treatments, disease stage, and type of surgery were among factors affecting survival (P<0.05.Conclusion: Although most cancer researchers tend to use proportional hazard model, accelerated failure-time mod-els in analogous conditions — as they do not require proportional hazards assumption and consider a parametric sta-tistical distribution for survival time— will be credible alternatives to proportional hazard model.

  18. Framework for accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A program is being conducted to establish those attributes of a severe accident management plan which are necessary to assure effective response to all credible severe accidents and to develop guidance for their incorporation in a plant's Accident Management Plan. This program is one part of the Accident Management Research Program being conducted by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The approach used in establishing attributes and developing guidance includes three steps. In the first step the general attributes of an accident management plan were identified based on: (1) the objectives established for the NRC accident management program, (2) the elements of an accident management framework identified by the NRC, and (3) a review of the processes used in developing the currently used approach for classifying and analyzing accidents. For the second step, a process was defined that uses the general attributes identified from the first step to develop an accident management plan. The third step applied the process defined in the second step at a nuclear power plant to refine and develop it into a benchmark accident management plan. Step one is completed, step two is underway and step three has not yet begun

  19. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Stahl

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant. METHODS: To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches. CONCLUSION: The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  20. Proceedings of the workshop on operator training for severe accident management and instrumentation capabilities during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Workshop was organised in collaboration with Electricite de France (Service Etudes et Projets Thermiques et Nucleaires). There were 34 participants, representing thirteen OECD Member countries, the Russian Federation and the OECD/NEA. Almost half the participants represented utilities. The second largest group was regulatory authorities and their technical support organisations. Basically, the Workshop was a follow-up to the 1997 Second Specialist Meeting on Operator Aids for Severe Accident Management (SAMOA-2) [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(97)10 and 27] and to the 1992 Specialist Meeting on Instrumentation to Manage Severe Accidents [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(92)11 and (93)3]. It was aimed at sharing and comparing progress made and experience gained from these two meetings, emphasizing practical lessons learnt during training or incidents as well as feedback from instrumentation capability assessment. The objectives of the Workshop were therefore: - to exchange information on recent and current activities in the area of operator training for SAM, and lessons learnt during the management of real incidents ('operator' is defined hear as all personnel involved in SAM); - to compare capabilities and use of instrumentation available during severe accidents; - to monitor progress made; - to identify and discuss differences between approaches relevant to reactor safety; - and to make recommendations to the Working Group on the Analysis and Management of Accidents and the CSNI (GAMA). The meeting confirmed that only limited information is needed for making required decisions for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed

  1. Road Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alma Aubakirova

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The article provides the analysis of death rates in road traffic accidents in Kazakhstan from 2004 to 2010 and explores the use of sanitary aviation.Methods: Data of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents were collected and analysed. Descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology and biomedical statistics were applied.Results: Totaly 27,003 people died as a result of road traffic accidents in this period. The death rate for the total population due to road traffic accidents was 25.0±2.10/0000. The death rate for men was (38.3±3.20/0000, which was higher (P<0.05 than that for women (12.6±1.10/0000. High death rates in the entire male population were identified among men of 30-39 years old, whereas the highest rates for women were attributed to the groups of 50-59 years old and 70-79 years old. In time dynamics, death rates tended to decrease: the total population (Тdec=−2.4%, men (Тdec=−2.3% and women (Тdec=−1.4%. When researching territorial relevance, the rates were established as low (to 18.30/0000, average (between18.3 and24.00/0000 and high (from 24.00/0000 and above. Thus, the regions with high rates included Akmola region (24.30/0000, Mangistau region (25.90/0000, Zhambyl region (27.30/0000, Almaty region (29.30/0000 and South Kazakhstan region (32.40/0000.Conclusion: The identified epidemiological characteristics of the population deaths rates from road traffic accidents should be used in integrated and targeted interventions to enhance prevention of injuries in accidents.

  2. Investigation of Qom Rural Area Water Network Accident in 2010 and Minimization Approaches of Accident Frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Jafari Mansoorian

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study : Accidents in water networks can lead to increase the uncounted water, costs of repair, maintenance, restoration and enter water contaminants to water network. The aim of this study is to survey the accidents of Qom rural water network and choose the right approaches to reduce the number of accidents. Materials & Methods: In this cross-sectional study, four sector of Qom province (Markazi, Dastjerd, Kahak and Qahan, were assessed over a period of 8 months (July – January 2010. This study was conducted through questionnaire of Ministry of Energy. Results: The total number of accidents was 763. The highest number of accidents in the four sectors was related to Markazi sector with 228 accidents. According to the time of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to September (19.7% and November (6.8%, respectively. According to the location of the accident on network, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to distribution network (64% and connections (17.5% and transmission pipe (18.34%, respectively. According to the type of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to breaking (47.8% and gasket failure (1.2%, respectively. Considering with the pipes’ material, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to polyethylene pipes (93% and steel and cast iron pipes (0.5%, 0.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Due to the high break rate of Polyethylene pipes, it is recommended to be placed in priority of leak detection and rehabilitation.   .

  3. Application of UNIVAID-HAS in Highway Monitoring Timely and Detection of Traffic Accidents%交通事件检测系统在高速公路中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑玉兴

    2009-01-01

    介绍了新一代智能交通信息管理系统,它融合了车辆跟踪检测技术、虚拟线圈技术,极大地满足了高速公路运营管理部门对实时交通事件的监控管理需求.%The paper introduces a new era system UNIVAID-HAS for traffic information intelligence management,system for traffic accidents administration.Its hardware mixes together with the techniques for vehicle tracing detection,fictitious coil techniques and a series of relevant techniques,which greatly meet the requirement of highway running administrative authority for traffic unexpected accidents monitoring timely.

  4. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  5. The medical investigation of airship accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, C J; McMeekin, R R; Ruehle, C J; Canik, J J

    1988-07-01

    A review of the autopsy reports for 18 of 21 victims in 3 of the 4 nonrigid Navy airship accidents during the period 1955 to 1966 revealed that the patterns of injury, complicated by postcrash entrapment, immersion, or fire, are similar to the injuries observed in the low-speed, low-altitude crashes of rigid airships and of light aircraft. With the renewed interest in the development of airships for military purposes, there is a need for improved design related to crashworthiness and to aircrew habitability, safety, restraint, and egress in order to enhance the chance for survival in the event of an accident. PMID:3171506

  6. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  7. A retrospective analysis of survival outcomes for two different radiotherapy fractionation schedules given in the same overall time for limited stage small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To compare survival outcomes for two fractionation schedules of thoracic radiotherapy, both given over 3 weeks, in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). At Radiation Oncology Mater Centre (ROMC) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), patients with LS-SCLC treated with curative intent are given radiotherapy (with concurrent chemotherapy) to a dose of either 40Gy in 15 fractions ('the 40Gy/15⧣group') or 45Gy in 30 fractions ('the 45Gy/30⧣group'). The choice largely depends on institutional preference. Both these schedules are given over 3 weeks, using daily and twice-daily fractionation respectively. The records of all such patients treated from January 2000 to July 2009 were retrospectively reviewed and survival outcomes between the two groups compared. Of 118 eligible patients, there were 38 patients in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 41 patients in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The median relapse-free survival time was 12 months in both groups. Median overall survival was 21 months (95% CI 2–37 months) in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 26 months (95% CI 1–48 months) in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The 5-year overall survival rates were 20% and 25%, respectively (P=0.24). On multivariate analysis, factors influencing overall survival were: whether prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was given (P=0.01) and whether salvage chemotherapy was given at the time of relapse (P=0.057). Given the small sample size, the potential for selection bias and the retrospective nature of our study it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the efficacy of hypofractionated thoracic radiotherapy compared with hyperfractionated accelerated thoracic radiotherapy however hypofractionated radiotherapy may result in equivalent relapse-free survival.

  8. The effects of ambient temperature and mixing time of glass ionomer cement material on the survival rate of proximal ART restorations in primary molars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur M Kemoli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Temperature fluctuations and material mixing times are likely to affect the consistency and integrity of the material mixture, and hence the restoration made out of it. The purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of the ambient temperature and the mixing time of glass ionomer cement (GIC restorative material on the survival rate of proximal atraumatic restorative treatment (ART restorations placed in primary molars. Materials and Methods: A total of 804 restorations were placed in the primary molars of 6-8-year-olds using the ART approach. The restorations were then followed for a period of 2 years and evaluated at given intervals. The data collected were analyzed using SPSS computer statistical program, and the results tested and compared using the Chi-square, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional hazard statistical tests. Results: The cumulative survival rate of the restorations dropped from the initial 94.4% to 30.8% at the end of 2 years. The higher survival rate of the restorations was associated with the experienced operators and assistants when using the rubber dam isolation method. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the survival rate of the restorations when related to the room temperature and the mixing time of the GIC materials used in spite of the variations in the temperature recoded and the methods used in mixing the materials. Conclusion: The ambient temperature and mixing time of GIC did not have a significant effect on the survival of the proximal ART restorations.

  9. Structural and containment response to LMFBR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The adequacy of the containment of fast reactors has been traditionally evaluated by analyzing the response of the containment to a spectrum of core disruptive accidents. The current approach in the U.S. is to consider fast reactor response to accidents in terms of four lines of assurance (LOAs). Thus, LOA-1 is to prevent accidents, LOA-2 is to limit core damage, LOA-3 is to control accident progression and LOA-4 is to attenuate radiological consequences. Thus, the programs on the adequacy of containment response fall into LOA-3. Significant programs to evaluate the response of the containment to core disruptive accidents and, thereby, to assure control of accident progression are in progress. These include evaluating the mechanical response of the primary system to core disruptive accidents and evaluating the thermal response of the reactor structures to core melting, including the effects this causes on the secondary containment. The analysis of structural response employs calculated pressure-volume-time loading functions. The results of the analyses establish the response of the containment to the prescribed loadings. The analysis of thermal response requires an assessment of the distribution and state of the fuel, fission products and activated materials from accident initiation to final disposition in a stable configuration

  10. Investigation of a fatal airplane crash: autopsy, computed tomography, and injury pattern analysis used to determine who was steering the plane at time of accident. A case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Christian Bjerre; Nielsen, Trine Skov; Nagel, Lise Loft;

    2012-01-01

    A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior to the au......A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior...... to the autopsy. The autopsies showed massive destruction to the bodies of the two victims but did not identify any signs of acute or chronic medical conditions that could explain loss of control of the airplane. PMCT, histological examination, and forensic chemical analysis also failed to identify an explanation...... for the crash. A detailed review of an airplane identical to the crashed airplane was performed in collaboration with the Danish Accident Investigation Board and the Danish National Police, National Centre of Forensic Services. The injuries were described using the abbreviated injury scale, the injury severity...

  11. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  12. Communication and industrial accidents

    OpenAIRE

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the concept of role distance, which emphasizes the organizational characteristics. The general hypothesis is that communication failures are a main cause of role distance and accident-proneness within orga...

  13. The Chernobyl accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  14. National registration of accidents in Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olafsson, O; Axelsson, J

    1992-01-01

    Community based registration of accidents has been employed in Iceland from 1987. A form developed in the emergency ward at the city Hospital of Reykjavik has been used for the registration. The following issues have been registered: the type and the seriousness of the injury, treatment, place of accident and time of accident. Health centres in Iceland have been computerized from 1976. At the time being about half of the health centres participate in the registration with the information included in the form as the source. Every health center has its well defined district. The accidents among the inhabitants in each district is registered, while accidents among other people, e.g. tourists, is registered separately. At this moment 183,000 out of a total number of 259,000 inhabitants are covered by the registration, i.e. 71% of the population. In 1989 the frequency of accidents was 198 per 100,000 inhabitants. 26% of the accidents occurred at home, 11% at work, 9% during physical activity, 6% was traffic accidents, whereas the same proportion occurred at school. This registration system has been created as a result of annual conferences on accidents arranged by the Director General of public health since 1984. Representatives for the following parties have been invited; medical doctors working in hospitals and health centres, clinical nurses, physiotherapists, the National Insurance Service, other insurance companies, rescue and ambulance personal, fire departments, the Automobile Association, the communication Council. Local communities members of the parliament, voluntary organizations, e.g. Red Cross, the Sea Rescue Service and the Aviation Board. This activity has stimulated measures aiming at preventing accidents in several local communities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:1285816

  15. Iodine release characteristic in reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author describes the chemical behavior for the iodine release from the fuel element in nuclear reactor accidents, partition coefficient in the water and air and the release characteristic in time. The research of the iodine release was suggested

  16. Nuclear accidents and epidemiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A consultation on epidemiology related to the Chernobyl accident was held in Copenhagen in May 1987 as a basis for concerted action. This was followed by a joint IAEA/WHO workshop in Vienna, which reviewed appropriate methodologies for possible long-term effects of radiation following nuclear accidents. The reports of these two meetings are included in this volume, and cover the subjects: 1) Epidemiology related to the Chernobyl nuclear accident. 2) Appropriate methodologies for studying possible long-term effects of radiation on individuals exposed in a nuclear accident. Figs and tabs

  17. Risk of Early Onset Substance Use among Students with and without Mild Academic Disabilities: Results of a Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepper, Annelies; Koning, Ina; Vollebergh, Wilma; Monshouwer, Karin

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the age of onset of substance use among 536 students with mild academic disabilities and 906 students without academic disabilities, and the extent to which emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems explain the differences between these two groups. Using discrete-time survival analysis, the results of this study showed…

  18. Effect of pre-wintering and wintering temperature regimes on weight loss, survival, and emergence time in the mason bee Osmia cornuta (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Jordi; Kemp, William

    2004-01-01

    Osmia cornuta adults require exposure to wintering temperatures followed by incubation in the spring to emerge. We studied winter survival, weight loss, emergence time, and post-emergence longevity in O. cornuta exposed to a variety of pre-wintering and wintering treatments. Few bees emerged after exposure to wintering durations

  19. Surviving death-anxieties in liquid modern times: examining Zygmunt Bauman's cultural theory of death and dying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higo, Masa

    2012-01-01

    Despite his prominence as a leading contemporary social theorist, Zygmunt Bauman's long-term writing on the cultural theory of death and dying has largely been overlooked in the sociological literature of death and dying, particularly in the United States. Bauman uniquely theorizes how we survive death-anxieties today: Contemporary, liquid modern culture has engaged us in ceaseless pursuit of the unattainable consumer sensation of bodily fitness as a way to suppress and thus survive our death-anxieties. Bauman also argues that the prevalence of this cultural formula to survive death-anxieties has simultaneously increased, more than ever before in social history, the volume of individual responsibility for restlessly coping with existential anxieties in the societies of consumers. While unique and insightful, his theoretical argument has a limitation; largely succeeding Freud's classic view of mortality, Bauman's contemporary theory may lead us to neglect potentially important social, cultural, and historical variations in how mortality has been understood. PMID:23057247

  20. Communication and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the conc

  1. Accidents - personal factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaitsev, S.L.; Tsygankov, A.V.

    1982-03-01

    This paper evaluates influence of selected personal factors on accident rate in underground coal mines in the USSR. Investigations show that so-called organizational factors cause from 80 to 85% of all accidents. About 70% of the organizational factors is associated with social, personal and economic features of personnel. Selected results of the investigations carried out in Donbass mines are discussed. Causes of miner dissatisfaction are reviewed: 14% is caused by unsatisfactory working conditions, 21% by repeated machine failures, 16% by forced labor during days off, 14% by unsatisfactory material supply, 16% by hard physical labor, 19% by other reasons. About 25% of miners injured during work accidents are characterized as highly professionally qualified with automatic reactions, and about 41% by medium qualifications. About 60% of accidents is caused by miners with less than a 3 year period of service. About 15% of accidents occurs during the first month after a miner has returned from a leave. More than 30% of accidents occurs on the first work day after a day or days off. Distribution of accidents is also presented: 19% of accidents occurs during the first 2 hours of a shift, 36% from the second to the fourth hour, and 45% occurs after the fourth hour and before the shift ends.

  2. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  3. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  4. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C Battaile

    Full Text Available We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864; northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758; and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  5. Accidents in radiotherapy: Lack of quality assurance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    About 150 radiological accidents, involving more than 3000 patients with adverse effects, 15 patient's fatalities and about 5000 staff and public exposures have been collected and analysed. Out of 67 analysed accidents in external beam therapy 22% has been caused by wrong calculation of the exposure time or monitor units, 13% by inadequate review of patient's chart, 12% by mistakes in the anatomical area to be treated. The remaining 35% can be attributed to 17 different causes. The most common mistakes in brachytherapy were wrong activities of sources used for treatment (20%), inadequate procedures for placement of sources applicators (14%), mistakes in calculating the treatment time (12%), etc. The direct and contributing causes of radiological accidents have been deduced from each event, when it was possible and categorized into 9 categories: mistakes in procedures (30%), professional mistakes (17%), communication mistakes (15%), lack of training (8.5%), interpretation mistakes (7%), lack of supervision (6%), mistakes in judgement (6%), hardware failures (5%), software and other mistakes (5.5%). Three types of direct and contributing causes responsible for almost 62% of all accidents are directly connected to the quality assurance of treatment. The lessons learnt from the accidents are related to frequencies of direct and contributing factors and show that most of the accident are caused by lack, non-application of quality assurance (QA) procedures or by underestimating of QA procedures. The international system for collection of accidents and dissemination of lessons learnt from the different accidents, proposed by IAEA, can contribute to better practice in many radiotherapy departments. Most of the accidents could have been avoided, had a comprehensive QA programme been established and properly applied in all radiotherapy departments, whatever the size. (author)

  6. Effect of Polyprenyl Immunostimulant on the survival times of three cats with the dry form of feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legendre, Alfred M; Bartges, Joseph W

    2009-08-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is considered a fatal disease. Three cats with dry form FIP were treated with Polyprenyl Immunostimulant. Two of the three cats are still on treatment and are alive and well 2 years after diagnosis. The third cat survived 14 months but was treated for only 4.5 months. Further studies are necessary to assess the potential of the Polyprenyl Immunostimulant.

  7. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  8. Complex karyotype in mantle cell lymphoma is a strong prognostic factor for the time to treatment and overall survival, independent of the MCL international prognostic index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260

  9. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  10. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  11. Accidents, risks and consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although the accident at Chernobyl can be considered as the worst accident in the world, it could have been worse. Other far worse situations are considered, such as a nuclear weapon hitting a nuclear reactor. Indeed the accident at Chernobyl is compared to a nuclear weapon. The consequences of Chernobyl in terms of radiation levels are discussed. Although it is believed that a similar accident could not occur in the United Kingdom, that possibility is considered. It is suggested that emergency plans should be made for just such an eventuality. Even if Chernobyl could not happen in the UK, the effects of accidents are international. The way in which nuclear reactor accidents happen is explored, taking the 1957 Windscale fire, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl as examples. Reactor designs and accident scenarios are considered. The different reactor designs are listed. As well as the Chernobyl RBMK design it is suggested that the light water reactors also have undesirable features from the point of view of safety. (U.K.)

  12. Vehicle accidents related to sleep: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Horne, J.; Reyner, L.

    1999-01-01

    Falling asleep while driving accounts for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents under monotonous driving conditions. Many of these accidents are related to work--for example, drivers of lorries, goods vehicles, and company cars. Time of day (circadian) effects are profound, with sleepiness being particularly evident during night shift work, and driving home afterwards. Circadian factors are as important in determining driver sleepiness as is the duration of the drive, but only ...

  13. Severe accident analysis to verify the effectiveness of severe accident management guidelines for large pressurized heavy water reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gokhale, O.S., E-mail: onkarsg@barc.gov.in; Mukhopadhyay, D., E-mail: dmukho@barc.gov.in; Lele, H.G., E-mail: hglele@barc.gov.in; Singh, R.K., E-mail: rksingh@barc.gov.in

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • The progression of severe accident initiated from high pressure scenario of station black out has been analyzed using RELAP5/SCDAP. • The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been established through analysis. • The time margin available to invoke the SAMG action has been specified. - Abstract: The pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) contains both inherent and engineered safety features that help the reactor become resistant to severe accident and its consequences. However in case of a low frequency severe accident, despite the safety features, procedural action should be in place to mitigate the accident progression. Severe accident analysis of such low frequency event provides insight into the accident progression and basis to develop the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG). Since the order of uncertainty in the progression path of severe accident is very high, it is necessary to study the consequences of the SAMG actions prescribed. The paper discusses severe accident analysis for large PHWRs for multiple failure transients involving a high pressure scenario (initiation event like SBO with loss of emergency core cooling system and loss of moderator cooling). SAMG actions prescribed for such a scenario include water injection into steam generator, calandria vessel or calandria vault at different stages of accident. The effectiveness of SAMG actions prescribed has been investigated. It is found that there is sufficient time margin available to the operator to execute these SAMG actions and the progression of severe accident is arrested in all the three cases.

  14. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wotawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean

  15. iWitness pollution map: crowdsourcing petrochemical accident research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bera, Risha; Hrybyk, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Community members living near any one of Louisiana's 160 chemical plants or refineries have always said that accidents occurring in these petrochemical facilities significantly impact their health and safety. This article reviews the iWitness Pollution Map tool and Rapid Response Team (RRT) approach led by the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, an environmental nonprofit group, and their effectiveness in documenting these health and safety impacts during petrochemical accidents. Analysis of a January 2013 RRT deployment in Chalmette, LA, showed increased documentation of current petrochemical accidents and suggested increased preparedness to report future accidents. The RRT model encourages government response and enforcement agencies to integrate with organized community groups to fully document the impacts during ongoing accidents, lead a more timely response to the accident, and prevent future accidents from occurring. PMID:24135064

  16. Abundance, Timing of Migration, and Egg-to-Smolt Survival of Juvenile Chum Salmon, Kwethluk River, Alaska, 2007 and 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burril, Sean E.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Finn, James E.; U.S. Geological Survey; Gillikin, Daniel; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

    2010-01-01

    To better understand and partition mortality among life stages of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), we used inclined-plane traps to monitor the migration of juveniles in the Kwethluk River, Alaska in 2007 and 2008. The migration of juvenile chum salmon peaked in mid-May and catch rates were greatest when water levels were rising. Movement of chum salmon was diurnal with highest catch rates occurring during the hours of low light (that is, 22:00 to 10:00). Trap efficiency ranged from 0.37 to 4.04 percent (overall efficiency = 1.94 percent). Total abundance of juvenile chum salmon was estimated to be 2.0 million fish in 2007 and 2.9 million fish in 2008. On the basis of the estimate of chum salmon females passing the Kwethluk River weir and age-specific fecundity, we estimated the potential egg deposition (PED) upstream of the weir and trapping site. Egg-to-smolt survival, calculated by dividing the estimate of juvenile chum salmon emigrating past the weir site by the estimate of PED, was 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.2 percent in 2008. In addition to chum salmon, Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha), coho salmon (O. kisutch), sockeye salmon (O. nerka), and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha), as well as ten other fish species, were captured in the traps. As with chum salmon, catch of these species increased during periods of increasing discharge and peaked during hours of low light. This study successfully determined the characteristics of juvenile salmon migrations and estimated egg-to-smolt survival for chum salmon. This is the first estimate of survival for any juvenile salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Alaska and demonstrates an approach that can help to partition mortality between freshwater and marine life stages, information critical to understanding the dynamics of salmon in this region.

  17. The number and microlocalization of tumor-associated immune cells are associated with patient's survival time in non-small cell lung cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Shangfu; Ma Junliang; Pu Qiang; Yu Nanbin; Che Guowei; Liu Lunxu; Dai Fuqiang; Ma Lin; You Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Methods Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSC...

  18. Inoculation of a Poultry Isolate Salmonella enteritidis on Egg Vitelline Membrane: Survival and Growth in Egg Components after Different Refrigeration Storage Times

    OpenAIRE

    Z. R. Howard; R. W. Moore; I. B. Zabala Diaz; Kim, W. K.; S. G. Birkhold; J. A. Byrd; L. F. Kubena; Nisbet, D. J.; Ricke, S C

    2007-01-01

    An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis re...

  19. Licensing topical report: the measurement and modelling of time-dependent fission product release from failed HTGR fuel particles under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The release of fission products from failed fuel particles was measured under simulated accident (core heatup) conditions. A generic model and specific model parameters that describe delayed fission product release from the kernels of failed HTGR fuel particles were developed from the experimental results. The release of fission products was measured from laser-failed BISO ThO2 and highly enriched (HEU) TRISO UC2 particles that had been irradiated to a range of kernel burnups. The burnups were 0.25, 1.4, and 15.7% FIMA for ThO2 particles and 23.5 and 74% FIMA for UC2 particles. The fission products measured were nuclides of xenon, iodine, krypton, tellurium, and cesium

  20. A race against time: can CO-OPs and provider start-ups survive in the health insurance marketplaces?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggbeer, Bill

    2015-12-01

    > The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups. PMID:26793946

  1. Soviet submarine accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although the Soviet Union has more submarines than the NATO navies combined, and the technological superiority of western submarines is diminishing, there is evidence that there are more accidents with Soviet submarines than with western submarine fleets. Whether this is due to inadequate crews or lower standards of maintenance and overhaul procedures is discussed. In particular, it is suggested that since the introduction of nuclear powered submarines, the Soviet submarine safety record has deteriorated. Information on Soviet submarine accidents is difficult to come by, but a list of some 23 accidents, mostly in nuclear submarines, between 1966 and 1986, has been compiled. The approximate date, class or type of submarine, the nature and location of the accident, the casualties and damage and the source of information are tabulated. (U.K.)

  2. Accident resistant transport container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  3. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  4. Social familiarity reduces reaction times and enhances survival of group-living predatory mites under the risk of predation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Andreas Strodl

    Full Text Available Social familiarity, which is based on the ability to recognise familiar conspecific individuals following prior association, may affect all major life activities of group-living animals such as foraging, reproduction and anti-predator behaviours. A scarcely experimentally tested explanation why social familiarity is beneficial for group-living animals is provided by limited attention theory. Limited attention theory postulates that focusing on a given task, such as inspection and assessment of unfamiliar group members, has cognitive and associated physiological and behavioural costs with respect to the attention paid to other tasks, such as anti-predator vigilance and response. Accordingly, we hypothesised that social familiarity enhances the anti-predator success of group-living predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis, confronted with an intraguild predator, the predatory mite Amblyseius andersoni.We videotaped and analysed the response of two P. persimilis larvae, held in familiar or unfamiliar pairs, to attacks by a gravid A. andersoni female, using the behavioural analyses software EthoVision Pro®. Familiar larvae were more frequently close together, reacted more quickly to predator attacks, survived more predator encounters and survived longer than unfamiliar larvae.In line with the predictions of limited attention theory, we suggest that social familiarity improves anti-predator behaviours because it allows prey to shift attention to other tasks rather than group member assessment.

  5. Safety analysis of surface haulage accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, R.F.; Boldt, C.M.K.

    1996-12-31

    Research on improving haulage truck safety, started by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, is being continued by its successors. This paper reports the orientation of the renewed research efforts, beginning with an update on accident data analysis, the role of multiple causes in these accidents, and the search for practical methods for addressing the most important causes. Fatal haulage accidents most often involve loss of control or collisions caused by a variety of factors. Lost-time injuries most often involve sprains or strains to the back or multiple body areas, which can often be attributed to rough roads and the shocks of loading and unloading. Research to reduce these accidents includes improved warning systems, shock isolation for drivers, encouraging seatbelt usage, and general improvements to system and task design.

  6. Internal dose assessment in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs of interest need to be computed from first principles. Standard bioassay methods may be used to assess body contents, but, again, the standard models for bioassay interpretation may not be applicable because of the circumstances of the accident and the prompt initiation of decorporation therapy. Examples of modifications to the standard methodologies include adjustment of biological half-times under therapy, such as in the Goiania accident, and the same effect, complicated by continued input from contaminated wounds, in the Hanford 241Am accident. (author)

  7. Deterministic analyses of severe accident issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe accidents in light water reactors involve complex physical phenomena. In the past there has been a heavy reliance on simple assumptions regarding physical phenomena alongside of probability methods to evaluate risks associated with severe accidents. Recently GE has developed realistic methodologies that permit deterministic evaluations of severe accident progression and of some of the associated phenomena in the case of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These deterministic analyses indicate that with appropriate system modifications, and operator actions, core damage can be prevented in most cases. Furthermore, in cases where core-melt is postulated, containment failure can either be prevented or significantly delayed to allow sufficient time for recovery actions to mitigate severe accidents

  8. FATAL ACCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (FARS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) database consist of three relational tables, containing data on automobile accidents on public U.S. roads that resulted in the death of one or more people within 30 days of the accident. Truck and trailer accidents are also included.

  9. Traffic Accidents on Slippery Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonnesbech, J. K.; Bolet, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Police registrations from 65 accidents on slippery roads in normally Danish winters have been studied. The study showed: • 1 accident per 100 km when using brine spread with nozzles • 2 accidents per 100 km when using pre wetted salt • 3 accidents per 100 km when using kombi spreaders The results...

  10. Wireless Reporting System for Accident Detection at Higher Speeds u

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peddi Anudeep

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Speed is one of the basic reasons for vehicle accident. Many lives could have been saved if emergency service could get accident information and reach in time. Nowadays, GPS has become an integral part of a vehicle system. This paper proposes to utilize the capability of a GPS receiver to monitor speed of a vehicle and detect accident basing on monitored speed and send accident location to an Alert Service Center. The GPS will monitor speed of a vehicle and compare with the previous speed in every second through a Microcontroller Unit. Whenever the speed will be below the specified speed, it will assume that an accident has occurred. The system will then send the accident location acquired from the GPS along with the time and the speed by utilizing the GSM network. This will help to reach the rescue service in time and save the valuable human life.

  11. Accident management information needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  12. Accident and emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is an increasing potential for severe accidents as the industrial development tends towards large, centralised production units. In several industries this has led to the formation of large organisations which are prepared for accidents fighting and for emergency management. The functioning of these organisations critically depends upon efficient decision making and exchange of information. This project is aimed at securing and possibly improving the functionality and efficiency of the accident and emergency management by verifying, demonstrating, and validating the possible use of advanced information technology in the organisations mentioned above. With the nuclear industry in focus the project consists of five main activities: 1) The study and detailed analysis of accident and emergency scenarios based on records from incidents and rills in nuclear installations. 2) Development of a conceptual understanding of accident and emergency management with emphasis on distributed decision making, information flow, and control structure sthat are involved. 3) Development of a general experimental methodology for evaluating the effects of different kinds of decision aids and forms of organisation for emergency management systems with distributed decision making. 4) Development and test of a prototype system for a limited part of an accident and emergency organisation to demonstrate the potential use of computer and communication systems, data-base and knowledge base technology, and applications of expert systems and methods used in artificial intelligence. 5) Production of guidelines for the introduction of advanced information technology in the organisations based on evaluation and validation of the prototype system. (author)

  13. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wotawa

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3–7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and

  14. Cyclical Fluctuations in Workplace Accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, J.; van Ours, J.C.

    2002-01-01

    This Paper presents a theory and an empirical investigation on cyclical fluctuations in workplace accidents. The theory is based on the idea that reporting an accident dents the reputation of a worker and raises the probability that he is fired. Therefore a country with a high or an increasing unemployment rate has a low (reported) workplace accident rate. The empirical investigation concerns workplace accidents in OECD countries. The analysis confirms that workplace accident rates are invers...

  15. Effect of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process: Inverse power law and Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramukkul, Pensri; Svenkeson, Adam; Grigolini, Paolo

    2014-02-01

    We study the combined effects of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process that generates intermittent events mimicking the behavior of complex systems. By varying the sensitivity level of the detector we move between two forms of complexity, from inverse power law to Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities. Here fluctuations fight against complexity, causing an exponential truncation to the survival probability. We show that fluctuations of relatively weak intensity have a strong effect on the generation of Mittag-Leffler complexity, providing a reason why stretched exponentials are frequently found in nature. Our results afford a more unified picture of complexity resting on the Mittag-Leffler function and encompassing the standard inverse power law definition.

  16. Effect of Initial Population Density of Criconemella xenoplax on Reducing Sugars, Free Amino Acids, and Survival of Peach Seedlings over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyczepir, A P; Reilly, C C; Okie, W R

    1987-07-01

    Percentage of mortality, growth suppression, and changes in free amino acid and reducing sugar content in root and (or) stem tissue of Nemaguard peach seedlings were studied in the greenhouse in relation to time and eight different initial population densities (Pi) of Criconemella xenoplax. After 90 and 180 days, free amino acid content in root tissue significantly increased with increasing nematode numbers. Suppression of root volume, dry root and stem weight, height increase, plant survival, and content of reducing sugars in root tissue were detected at 180 and 270 days and following pruning. All criteria were negatively correlated with nematode Pi. Changes in growth, metabolic parameters, and survival percentage were attributed to Pi density of C. xenoplax, duration of the experiment, and nematode reproduction rate.

  17. Radiation accidents and defence of population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Development of nuclear physics, the fundamental and the applied researches in the field of radioactive insured wide possibility for application of radionuclides and ionizing radiation source in the different fields of national economy. Application of radionuclides in chemical, metallurgical, food industry, in agriculture and etc. Fields provide a large economic profit. It's hard to apprise significance of ionizing radiation source using in medicine for diagnostics and treatment of different disease. Nuclear power engineering and nuclear industry are developing intensively. At same time nuclear power, ionizing radiation sources incur potential treat for surroundings and health of population. As even that stage of protective measure development: there is no possibility of that happening of radiation accidents. A radiation accident qualifies as loss of ionizing radiation sources direction, which provoked by disrepair equipment, natural calamity or other causes which could bring to unplanned irradiation of population or radioactive pollution of surroundings. At present some following typical cases connected with radiation accident have been chosen: Contentious using or keeping of ionizing radiation source with breach of established requires; Loss, theft of ionizing radiation sources or radiation plants, instruments; Leaving the sources of ionizing radiation in the holes; Refusal radiation technic exploited in industry, medicine, SRI and etc; Disrepair in nuclear transport means of conveyance; Crashes and accidents at NPP and at other enterprises of nuclear industry. The radiation accidents according to character, degree and scales have been divided into two groups: Radiation accidents not connected with NPP; Accidents in the nuclear engineering and industry; The radiation accidents not connected with NPP according their consequence divide into 5 groups; accidents which do not come to irradiation of personal, persons from population (more PN-permissible norm

  18. [Psychogenesis of accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannattasio, E; Nencini, R; Nicolosi, N

    1988-01-01

    After having carried out a historical review of industrial psychology with specific attention to the evolution of the concept of causality in accidents, the Authors formulate their work hypothesis from that research which take into highest consideration the executives' attitudes in the genesis of the accidents. As dogmatism appears to be one of the most negative of executives' attitudes, the Authors administered Rockeach's Scale to 130 intermediate executives from 6 industries in Latium and observed the frequency index for accidents and the morbidity index (absenteeism) of the 2149 workhand. The Authors assumed that to high degree of dogmatism on the executives' side should correspond o a higher level of accidents and absenteeism among the staff. The data processing revealed that, due to the type of machinery employed, three of the industries examined should be considered as High Risk Industrie (HRI), while the remaining three could be considered as Low Risk Industries (LRI): in fact, due to the different working conditions, a significant lower number of accidents occurred in last the three. A statistically significant correlation between the executives' dogmatism and the number of accidents among their workhand in the HRI has been noticed, while this has not been observed in the LRI. This confirms, as had already been pointed out by Gemelli in 1944, that some "objective conditions" are requested so that the accident may actually take place. On the other hand the morbidity index has not shown any difference related to the different kind of industries (HRI, LRI): in both cases statistically significant correlations were obtained between the executives' dogmatism and the staff's absenteeism. absenteeism.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3154344

  19. Accidents in nuclear ships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oelgaard, P.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10{sup -3} per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au).

  20. Accidents in nuclear ships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10-3 per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au)

  1. 某铜矿矽肺患者生存时间分析%Survival time analysis of the silicosis patients in a copper mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏万夫; 丁建球; 郭仲伟; 张秀军

    2012-01-01

    Objective:To analyze the survival time and main influencing factors on the death from silicosis in a copper mine. Methods; Retrospective analysis was carried out in 48 deaths from silicosis in a copper'mine regarding the clinical history and report of the occupational disease to calculate the age of exposure to dust, duration of exposure, attack age and post-pneumoconiosis life span, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was undertaken to compare the survival of different groups. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the survival time and important influencing factors. Results: Of the 48 patients, mean age of exposure to dust was (24. 4 ± 6. 0); mean duration of exposure, (22. 5 ± 8.7)years; mean attack age, (62.6 ± 11.1) and mean survival time(95 % CI) ,(14.0 ±2.4) years. No significant difference was found between different stages of disease on death of silicosis, associated pulmonary tuberculosis and lung cancer, smoking history and survival rate ( P > 0. 05 ) . Conclusion; Survival analysis can be useful statistics to deal with the death from silicosis, and survival of silicosis patients is associated with a variety of influencing factors. Besides, the parameters, including duration of exposure, age of exposure to dust and attack age, may be sufficiently to estimate the progression and outcomes of prevention of this disease.%目的:应用生存分析方法研究矽肺死亡病例的生存时间和相关影响因素.方法:收集某铜矿企业48例矽肺病死亡患者的病历资料和职业病报告,建立数据库,计算接尘年龄、接尘工龄、发病年龄、生存时间等,采用Kaplan-Meier法描述不同组别矽肺死亡病例的生存率,运用COX比例风险模型分析矽肺死亡病例生存时间影响因素.结果:48例肺病死亡患者平均接尘年龄为(24.4±6.0)岁,平均接尘工龄(22.5±8.7)年,平均发病年龄(62.6±11.1)岁;生存时间中位数(P25,P75)为14.0(7,22)年;死亡时最高矽肺分期

  2. PWR pressure vessel integrity during overcooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pressurized water reactors are susceptible to certain types of hypothetical accidents that under some circumstances, including operation of the reactor beyond a critical time in its life, could result in failure of the pressure vessel as a result of propagation of crack-like defects in the vessel wall. The accidents of concern are those that result in thermal shock to the vessel while the vessel is subjected to internal pressure. Such accidents, referred to as pressurized thermal shock or overcooling accidents (OCA), include a steamline break, small-break LOCA, turbine trip followed by stuck-open bypass valves, the 1978 Rancho Seco and the TMI accidents and many other postulated and actual accidents. The source of cold water for the thermal shock is either emergency core coolant or the normal primary-system coolant. ORNL performed fracture-mechanics calculations for a steamline break in 1978 and for a turbine-trip case in 1980 and concluded on the basis of the results that many more such calculations would be required. To meet the expected demand in a realistic way a computer code, OCA-I, was developed that accepts primary-system temperature and pressure transients as input and then performs one-dimensional thermal and stress analyses for the wall and a corresponding fracture-mechanics analysis for a long axial flaw. The code is briefly described, and its use in both generic and specific plant analyses is discussed

  3. Truck accident involving unirradiated nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the early morning of Dec. 16, 1991, a severe accident occurred when a passenger vehicle traveling in the wrong direction collided with a tractor trailer carrying 24 unirradiated nuclear fuel assemblies in 12 containers on Interstate I-91 in Springfield, Massachusetts. This paper documents the mechanical circumstances of the accident and assesses the physical environment to which the containers were exposed and the response of the containers and their contents. The accident involved four impacts where the truck was struck by the car, impacted on the center guardrail, impacted on the outer concrete barrier and came to rest against the center guardrail. The impacts were followed by a fire that began in the engine compartment, spread to the tractor and cab, and eventually spread to the trailer and payload. The fire lasted for about three hours and the packages were involved in the fire for about two hours. As a result of the fire, the tractor-trailer was completely destroyed and the packages were exposed to flames with temperatures between 1,300 F and 1,800 F. The fuel assemblies remained intact during the accident and there was no release of any radioactive material during the accident. This was a very severe accident; however, the injuries were minor and at no time was the public health and safety at risk

  4. Comparison of nested case-control and survival analysis methodologies for analysis of time-dependent exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Platt Robert W

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of exposures that vary with time require an additional level of methodological complexity to account for the time-dependence of exposure. This study compares a nested case-control approach for the study of time-dependent exposure with cohort analysis using Cox regression including time-dependent covariates. Methods A cohort of 1340 subjects with four fixed and seven time-dependent covariates was used for this study. Nested case-control analyses were repeated 100 times for each of 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 controls per case, and point estimates were compared to those obtained using Cox regression on the full cohort. Computational efficiencies were evaluated by comparing central processing unit times required for analysis of the cohort at sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 times its initial size. Results Nested case-control analyses yielded results that were similar to results of Cox regression on the full cohort. Cox regression was found to be 125 times slower than the nested case-control approach (using four controls per case. Conclusions The nested case-control approach is a useful alternative for cohort analysis when studying time-dependent exposures. Its superior computational efficiency may be particularly useful when studying rare outcomes in databases, where the ability to analyze larger sample sizes can improve the power of the study.

  5. Severe accident management (SAM), operator training and instrumentation capabilities - Summary and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed to. Though uncertainties still remain in the understanding of some severe accident phenomena, this should not be considered as a de-facto impediment against using simplified models both as operator aids in the course of an accident and as an option of a simulator severe accident mathematical model. These tools, however, should be based on state-of-the-art physics and calibrated using more sophisticated codes. Having the capability for periodic assessment of trends and predictions against real plant parameter evolution, and subsequent correction, is also advised for such tools. Being prepared for the unexpected is the major objective pursued in training, especially when capabilities extend into severe accident situations. When training for severe accidents is contemplated, skill-oriented sessions should be emphasized as they allow evaluating operator reactions in highly perturbed situations. However, it is also advised to increase operator awareness in case of severe accident situations through tailored sessions stressing knowledge of basic phenomena involved in degraded situations. Though computer-based training could well prevail in the long run, table-top exercises as currently implemented by many utilities also bring extremely valuable results

  6. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ardron, K.H.; Cain, D.G.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions.

  7. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions

  8. Endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation do not influence ablation success, recurrence-free survival or differentiated thyroid cancer-related mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Riemann, Burkhard [University Hospital Muenster, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Muenster (Germany); Maeder, Uwe; Reiners, Christoph [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); Verburg, Frederik A. [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); RWTH University Hospital Aachen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Aachen (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Based on a single older study it is established dogma that TSH levels should be ≥30 mU/l at the time of postoperative {sup 131}I ablation in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. We sought to determine whether endogenous TSH levels, i.e. after levothyroxine withdrawal, at the time of ablation influence ablation success rates, recurrence-free survival and DTC-related mortality. A total of 1,873 patients without distant metastases referred for postoperative adjuvant {sup 131}I therapy were retrospectively included from 1991 onwards. Successful ablation was defined as stimulated Tg <1 μg/l. Age, gender and the presence of lymph node metastases were independent determinants of TSH levels at the time of ablation. TSH levels were not significantly related to ablation success rates (p = 0.34), recurrence-free survival (p = 0.29) or DTC -elated mortality (p = 0.82), but established risk factors such as T-stage, lymph node metastases and age were. Ablation was successful in 230 of 275 patients (83.6 %) with TSH <30 mU/l and in 1,359 of 1,598 patients (85.0 %) with TSH ≥30 mU/l. The difference was not significant (p = 0.55). Of the whole group of 1,873 patients, 21 had recurrent disease. There were no significant differences in recurrence rates between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.16). Ten of the 1,873 patients died of DTC. There were no significant differences in DTC-specific survival between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.53). The precise endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation are not related to the ablation success rates, recurrence free survival and DTC related mortality. The established dogma that TSH levels need to be ≥30 mU/l at the time of {sup 131}I ablation can be discarded. (orig.)

  9. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  10. Dementia and Traffic Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic...... Central Research Register, and/or (2) at least one dementia diagnosis-related drug prescription registration in the Danish National Prescription Registry. Police-, hospital-, and emergency room-reported road traffic-related accidents occurred within the study follow-up are defined as the study outcome...... selection bias due to nonparticipation and loss to follow-up. Furthermore, this ensures that the study results are reliable and generalizable. However, underreporting of traffic-related accidents may occur, which will limit estimation of absolute risks....

  11. A Fractional Survival Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Cheng K.; Lee, Jenq-Daw

    2006-01-01

    A survival model is derived from the exponential function using the concept of fractional differentiation. The hazard function of the proposed model generates various shapes of curves including increasing, increasing-constant-increasing, increasing-decreasing-increasing, and so-called bathtub hazard curve. The model also contains a parameter that is the maximum of the survival time.

  12. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H; Sekiya, N; Masutani, Y; Sakumi, A; Mukasa, A; Nakagawa, K [The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, JP (Japan)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by

  13. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R2 between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R2 was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core

  14. The management of accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This author’s experiences in investigating well over a hundred accident occurrences has led to questioning how such events can be managed - - - while immediately recognising that the idea of managing accidents is an oxymoron, we don’t want to manage them, we don’t want not to manage them, what we desire is not to have to manage not-them, that is, manage matters so they don’t happen and then we don’t have to manage the consequences.Design/methodology/approach: The research will begin by defining some common classes of accidents in manufacturing industry, with examples taken from cases investigated, and by working backwards (too late, of course show how those involved could have managed these sample events so they didn’t happen, finishing with the question whether any of that can be applied to other situations.Findings: As shown that the management actions needed to prevent accidents are control of design and application of technology, and control and integration of people.Research limitations/implications: This paper has shown in some of the examples provided, management actions have been know to lead to accidents being committed by others, lower in the organization.Originality/value: Today’s management activities involve, generally, the use of technology in many forms, varying from simple tools (such as knives to the use of heavy equipment, electric power, and explosives. Against these we commit, in control of those items, the comparatively frail human mind and body, which, again generally, does succeed in controlling these resources, with (another generality by appropriate management. However, sometimes the control slips and an accident occurs.

  15. The TMI-2 accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A critical study about the technical and man-related facts in order to establish what is considered the worst commercial nuclear power accident until 1986. Radiological consequences and stress to the public are considered in contrast to antinuclear groups. This descriptive and technical study has the purpose to document written and oral opinions obtained abroad and then explain to the public in an easy language terminology. Preliminary study describing safety related systems fails and the accident itself with minute to minute description, conduct to the consequences and then, to learned lessons

  16. Relationship Between Radiation Treatment Time and Overall Survival After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Head-and-Neck Carcinoma: A Subset Analysis of TAX 324

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sher, David J., E-mail: dsher@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Posner, Marshall R. [Division of Hematology/Oncology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Tishler, Roy B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Sarlis, Nicholas J. [Sanofi-Aventis US, Bridgewater, NJ (United States); Haddad, Robert I. [Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Holupka, Edward J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (Israel); Devlin, Phillip M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Purpose: To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). Methods and Materials: TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of {>=} 70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary ({<=} 8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Results: A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p = 0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p = 0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. Conclusions: In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential

  17. Wireless Reporting System for Accident Detection at Higher Speeds u

    OpenAIRE

    Peddi Anudeep; K. Hari Bab

    2014-01-01

    Speed is one of the basic reasons for vehicle accident. Many lives could have been saved if emergency service could get accident information and reach in time. Nowadays, GPS has become an integral part of a vehicle system. This paper proposes to utilize the capability of a GPS receiver to monitor speed of a vehicle and detect accident basing on monitored speed and send accident location to an Alert Service Center. The GPS will monitor speed of a vehicle and compare with the pr...

  18. Does the Benefit on Survival from Leisure Time Physical Activity Depend on Physical Activity at Work? A Prospective Cohort Study

    OpenAIRE

    Andreas Holtermann; Jacob Louis Marott; Finn Gyntelberg; Karen Søgaard; Poul Suadicani; Ole Steen Mortensen; Eva Prescott; Peter Schnohr

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. METHODS: In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time phys...

  19. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B{sub 4}C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding

  20. Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, J.M.; Otten, R.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves

  1. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M

    2016-08-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  2. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  3. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisler, R.

    2003-01-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

  4. Description of the accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The TMI-2 accident occurred in March 1979. The accident started with a simple and fairly common steam power plant failure--loss of feedwater to the steam generators. Because of a combination of design, training, regulatory policies, mechanical failures and human error, the accident progressed to the point where it eventually produced the worst known core damage in large nuclear power reactors. Core temperatures locally reached UO2 fuel liquefaction (metallic solution with Zr) and even fuel melt (3800-51000F). Extensive fission product release and Zircaloy cladding oxidation and embrittlement occurred. At least the upper 1/2 of the core fractured and crumbled upon quenching. The lower central portion of the core apparently had a delayed heatup and then portions of it collapsed into the reactor vessel lower head. The lower outer portion of the core may be relatively undamaged. Outside of the core boundary, only those steel components directly above and adjacent to the core (≤1 foot) are known to have suffered significant damage (localized oxidation and melting). Other portions of the primary system outside of the reactor vessel apparently had little chance of damage or even notable overheating. The demonstrated coolability of the severely damaged TMI-2 core, once adequate water injection began, was one of the most substantial and important results of the TMI-2 accident

  5. The Chernobyl reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The documentation abstracted contains a complete survey of the broadcasts transmitted by the Russian wire service of the Deutsche Welle radio station between April 28 and Mai 15, 1986 on the occasion of the Chernobyl reactor accident. Access is given to extracts of the remarkable eastern and western echoes on the broadcasts of the Deutsche Welle. (HP)

  6. Measures against nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A select committee appointed by the Norwegian Ministry of Social Affairs put forward proposals concerning measures for the improvement of radiation protection preparedness in Norway. On the basis on an assessment of the potential radiation accident threat, the report examines the process of response, and identifies the organizational and management factors that influence that process

  7. Road Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

    OpenAIRE

    Alma Aubakirova; Alibek Kossumov; Nurbek Igissinov

    2013-01-01

    Background: The article provides the analysis of death rates in road traffic accidents in Kazakhstan from 2004 to 2010 and explores the use of sanitary aviation. Methods: Data of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents were collected and analysed. Descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology and biomedical statistics were applied. Results: Totaly 27,003 people died as a result of road traffic accidents in this period. The death rate for the total population due to road traffic accid...

  8. The psychology of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed. (U.K.)

  9. Authority structure and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational characteristics on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. The general hypothesis is that the authority structure is a main cause of accident-proneness wit

  10. Incidence of legal abortion in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The number of legal abortions in Sweden increased around the time of the Chernobyl accident, particularly in the summer and autumn of 1986. Although there was no recording of reasons for legal abortions, one might have suspected this increase to be a result of fear and anxiety after the accident. However, seen over a longer time perspective, the increase in the number of abortions started before and continued far beyond the time of the accident. There was also a simultaneous and pronounced increase in the number of births during the years subsequent to the accident. Therefore, it seems unlikely that fear of the consequences of radioactive fall-out after the Chernobyl accident resulted in any substantial increase of the number of legal abortions in Sweden

  11. Radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beiriger, J.M.; Failor, R.A.; Marsh, K.V.; Shaw, G.E.

    1987-08-01

    This report describes the detection of fallout in the United States from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. As part of its environmental surveillance program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory maintained detectors for gamma-emitting radionuclides. Following the reactor accident, additional air filters were set out. Several uncommon isotopes were detected at the time the plume passed into the US. (TEM)

  12. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Hong; Cheon, Moon Heon; Cho, Nam jin; No, Hui Cheon; Chang, Hyeon Seop; Moon, Sang Kee; Park, Seok Jeong; Chung, Jee Hwan [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1991-12-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy.

  13. Analysis of Maximum Reasonably Foreseeable Accidents for the Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.B. Ross; R.E. Best; S.J. Maheras; T.I. McSweeney

    2001-08-17

    Accidents could occur during the transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This paper describes the risks and consequences to the public from accidents that are highly unlikely but that could have severe consequences. The impact of these accidents would include those to a collective population and to hypothetical maximally exposed individuals (MEIs). This document discusses accidents with conditions that have a chance of occurring more often than 1 in 10 million times in a year, called ''maximum reasonably foreseeable accidents''. Accidents and conditions less likely than this are not considered to be reasonably foreseeable.

  14. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy

  15. Use of decision trees for evaluating severe accident management strategies in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclerar Engineering; Lee, Yongjin; Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). School of Energy Systems Engineering

    2016-07-15

    Accident management strategies are defined to innovative actions taken by plant operators to prevent core damage or to maintain the sound containment integrity. Such actions minimize the chance of offsite radioactive substance leaks that lead to and intensify core damage under power plant accident conditions. Accident management extends the concept of Defense in Depth against core meltdown accidents. In pressurized water reactors, emergency operating procedures are performed to extend the core cooling time. The effectiveness of Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG) became an important issue. Severe accident management strategies are evaluated with a methodology utilizing the decision tree technique.

  16. The Art of Creating Attractive Consumer Experiences at the Right Time: Skills Marketers Will Need to Survive and Thrive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemon Katherine N.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available New technologies have made today’s marketing faster, more mobile, more location-based, more digital, more virtual, and more automatized than ever. In this new world, marketers need to be “real-time relevant” – to gain awareness, to change perceptions and to spur action. They need to have their content in the right channel, format, time and context – from a consumer’s perspective. Only then do they at least have a chance of the consumer attending to the information and being influenced by it. In such an environment new skills and competences are required. The amount of available data has virtually exploded. To gain any perspective or apparent “control” in these environments, successful managers must embrace the complexity and learn to analyze, integrate and interpret all this data. A critical skill for marketers will be to identify the metrics that best reflect the desired outcomes of the organization and that sufficiently reflect specific indicators of critical processes. Furthermore, insights from other disciplines such as architecture, design, information-processing, biology or engineering will be important for creating customer experiences. The marketer of the future will need to be supremely curious and creative and to balance and integrate different worlds. It will all come down to delivering memorable and lasting experiences in a constantly and fast changing environment.

  17. Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hiemstra, Marieke; Otten, Roy; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves of the ‘Family and Health’ project. In total, 428 adolescents and their parents participated at baseline. Only never smokers were included at baseline (n = 272). A life table and Kaplan–Meier survi...

  18. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  19. Cellular phones and traffic accidents: an epidemiological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Violanti, J M; Marshall, J R

    1996-03-01

    Using epidemiological case-control design and logistic regression techniques, this study examined the association of cellular phone use in motor vehicles and traffic accident risk. The amount of time per month spent talking on a cellular phone and 18 other driver inattention factors were examined. Data were obtained from: (1) a case group of 100 randomly selected drivers involved in accidents within the past 2 years, and (2) a control group of 100 randomly selected licensed drivers not involved in accidents within the past 10 years. Groups were matched on geographic residence. Approximately 13% (N = 7) of the accident and 9% (N = 7) of the non-accident group reported use of cellular phones while driving. Data was obtained from Department of Motor Vehicles accident reports and survey information from study subjects. We hypothesized that increased use of cellular phones while driving was associated with increased odds of a traffic accident. Results indicated that talking more than 50 minutes per month on cellular phones in a vehicle was associated with a 5.59-fold increased risk in a traffic accident. The combined use of cellular phones and motor and cognitive activities while driving were also associated with increased traffic accident risk. Readers should be cautioned that this study: (1) consists of a small sample, (2) reveals statistical associations and not causal relationships, and (3) does not conclude that talking on cellular phones while driving is inherently dangerous.

  20. Health consequences [of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The World Health Organisation Conference on the Health Consequences of the Chernobyl and Other Radiological Accidents, held in Geneva last November, is reported. The lack of representation from the civil nuclear industry led often to one-sided debates instigated by the anti-nuclear lobbies present. Thyroid cancer in children as a result of the Chernobyl accident received particular attention. In Belarus, 400 cases have been noted, 220 in Ukraine and 60 in the Russian Federation. All have been treated with a high degree of success. The incidence of this cancer would be expected to follow the fallout path as the main exposure route was ingestion of contaminated foods and milk products. It was noted that the only way to confirm causality was if those children born since the accident failed to show the same increased incidence. Explanations were offered for the particular susceptibility of children to thyroid cancer following exposure to radiation. Another significant cause of concern was the health consequences to clean-up workers in radiological accidents. The main factor is psychological problems from the stress of knowing that they have received high radiation doses. A dramatic increase in psychological disorders has occurred in the Ukraine over the past ten years and this is attributed to stress generated by the Chernobyl accident, compounded by the inadequacy of the public advice offered at the time and the socio-economic uncertainties accompanying the breakup of the former USSR. (UK)

  1. Role functioning before start of adjuvant treatment was an independent prognostic factor for survival and time to failure. A report from the Nordic adjuvant interferon trial for patients with high-risk melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandberg, Yvonne; Johansson, Hemming; Aamdal, Steinar;

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the role of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at randomization as independent prognostic factors for survival and time to failure, and to explore associations between HRQoL and treatment effects....

  2. Surviving Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... his or her health status, when diagnosed with cancer may have an effect on their survival and recovery. Older adults are more likely to have other health conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. Managing these conditions can complicate ...

  3. Accident Safety Design for High Speed Elevator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tawiwat Veeraklaew

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many elevators exist in buildings for such a long time; however, an accident might happen as a free fall due to lacks of maintenance or some other accident such as firing. Although this situation is rarely occurred, many people are still concerned about it. The question here is how to make passengers to feel safe and confident when they are using an elevator, especially, high speed elevator. This problem is studied here in this paper as a free fall spring-mass-damper system with the stiffness and damping coefficient can be computed as minimum jerk of the system with given constraints on trajectories.

  4. Accident prevention in SME using ORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Troen, Hanne

    2008-01-01

    Risk perception in SMEs is normally low, and this is closely related to the fact that the chance of a mall enterprise experiencing a serious accident is very small compared to companies that employ a large workforce. This is a fact even though the SMEs together have a higher accident frequency...... compared with large enterprises. To reach the SMEs we must find a way of supporting them, because they normally have neither the time nor the resources to acquire the knowledge and awareness necessary for working with their own safety. The Occupational Risk Model (ORM) developed by the Dutch Workgroup...

  5. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0

  6. Survival of Xiphinema index in Vineyard Soil and Retention of Grapevine fanleaf virus Over Extended Time in the Absence of Host Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demangeat, Gérard; Voisin, Roger; Minot, Jean-Claude; Bosselut, Nathalie; Fuchs, Marc; Esmenjaud, Daniel

    2005-10-01

    ABSTRACT Grapevine fanleaf virus (GFLV) is transmitted specifically from grapevine to grapevine by the ectoparasitic root-feeding nematode Xiphinema index. Limited information is available on the survival of X. index in vineyard soil and on the retention of GFLV by X. index over extended periods of time. We addressed these two issues by quantifying the numbers of living X. index recovered from soil samples that were collected in three naturally GFLV-infected vineyards in France and subsequently stored at 7 or 20 degrees C in the absence of host plants. Our data indicated a two- to eightfold decrease in X. index numbers but the recovery of 8 to 10 living fourth-stage juveniles (J4) and adults per kilogram of soil after 4 years of storage regardless of temperature. In addition, GFLV was detected readily in all groups of 20 isolated X. index adults and J4 (except for J4 that were kept 4 years at 20 degrees C) by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction using total nematode RNAs and a primer set located in conserved regions at the 3' end of viral genomic RNA 2. Our findings on the long-term survival of viruliferous X. index under adverse conditions emphasize the need for new control strategies against GFLV.

  7. Expression of the macrophage antigen CD163 in rectal cancer cells is associated with early local recurrence and reduced survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabo, Ivan; Olsson, Hans; Sun, Xiao-Feng; Svanvik, Joar

    2009-10-15

    Expression of the macrophage antigen CD163 in breast cancer cells is recently shown to be related to early distant recurrence and shortened survival. In this study, 163 patients with rectal cancer, included in the Swedish rectal cancer trial and followed up for a median of 71 months, were examined for the expression of CD163 in the primary tumors. The cancer cells expressed CD163 in the primary tumors in 23% (n = 32) of the patients. In pretreatment biopsies from 101 patients, 10 had CD163-positive cancers and these patients had earlier local recurrence (p CD163-negative tumors. When studying surgical specimens from 61 patients randomized to preoperative irradiation (5 x 5 Gy delivered in 1 week), it was found that 31% were CD163 positive whereas the corresponding figure was only 17% for 78 patients who were nonirradiated (p CD163-positive tumors there was a reduced apoptotic activity as measured with the Termina deoxynucleotidyl Transferase Biotin-dUTP Nick End Labeling (TUNEL) technique (p = 0.018). There tended also to be an increased proliferation activity measured as an expression of Ki-67 non significant (NS). It is concluded that primary rectal cancers may express CD-163, and this phenotypic macrophage trait is related to early local recurrence, shorter survival time and reduced apoptosis. Furthermore, the expression of CD163 is more common after irradiation. PMID:19582880

  8. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report

  9. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost; Vladimir V. Frolov; Boris G. Ryazanov; Victor I. Sviridov

    2000-05-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.

  10. Tractor accidents in Swedish traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzke, Stefan; Nilsson, Kerstin; Lundqvist, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to reach a better understanding of accidents on Swedish roads involving tractors and to suggest ways of preventing them. In an earlier study we analyzed police-reported fatal accidents and accidents that led to physical injuries from 1992 to 2005. During each year of this period, tractors were involved in 128 traffic accidents on average, an average of 7 people were killed, 44 sustained serious injuries, and 143 sustained slight injuries. The number of fatalities in these tractor accidents was about 1.3% of all deaths in traffic accidents in Sweden. Cars were most often involved in the tractor accidents (58%) and 15% were single vehicle accidents. The mean age of the tractor driver involved was 39.8 years and young drivers (15-24 years) were overrepresented (30%). We are now increasing the data collected with the years 2006-2010 in order to study the changes in the number of accidents. Special attention will be given to the younger drivers and to single vehicle accidents. Based on the results we aim to develop suggestions for reducing road accidents, e.g. including measures for making farm vehicles more visible and improvement of the training provided at driving schools. PMID:22317543

  11. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the Chernobyl accident of 26 April, 1986, population dose assessment favours the view that the radiation risk of population effected by the early fallout would be different from that in regions contaminated later. Taking into account the short half-time of the most important radioactive iodine isotopes, thyroid disorders would be expected mainly to follow the early fallout distribution. At the time of accident at Unite 4 of the Chernobyl NPP, surface winds were from the Southeast. The initial explosions and heat carried volatile radioactive materials to the 1,5 km height, from where they were transported over the Western part of Belarus, Southern and Western part of Lithuania toward Scandinavian countries. Thus the volatile radioiodine and some other radionuclides were detected in Lithuania on the very first days after the accident. The main task of the work - to conduct short Half-time radioiodine and long half-time radiocesium dose assessment of Lithuanian inhabitants a result of the early Chernobyl accident fallout

  12. The role of hematopoietic growth factors in nuclear and radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factors are likely to be useful in treating persons with bone marrow failure resulting from radiation exposure. Some effects, such as increased granulocytes or platelets, are of clear therapeutic benefit. Other effects, such as a direct action on survival of hematopoietic stem cells and improved granulocyte function, may also increase survival. Many important areas remain to be studied, including which molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factor(s) to use, optimal dose and timing, and others. Some of these issues can be studied in clinical trials; others require in vitro or animal models. Despite the limited data currently available, it is clear that the availability of molecularly cloned hematopoietic growth factors heralds a new era in treating radiation and nuclear accidents.70 references

  13. Nuclear ship accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this report available information on 28 nuclear ship accident and incidents is considered. Of these 5 deals with U.S. ships and 23 with USSR ships. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions and sea water leaks into the submarines are considered. Comments are made on each of the events, and at the end of the report an attempt is made to point out the weaknesses of the submarine designs which have resulted in the accidents. It is emphasized that much of the available information is of a rather dubious nature. consequently some of the assessments made may not be correct. (au)

  14. Farm accidents in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogbill, T H; Busch, H M; Stiers, G R

    1985-10-01

    During a 6 1/2 year period, 105 children were admitted to the hospital as the result of trauma that occurred on farms. The mechanism of injury was animal related in 42 (40%), tractor or wagon accident in 28 (26%), farm machinery in 21 (20%), fall from farm building in six (6%), and miscellaneous in eight (8%). Injury Severity Score was calculated for each patient. An Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 25 was determined for 11 children (11%). Life-threatening injuries, therefore, are frequently the result of childhood activities that take place in agricultural environments. The most common injuries were orthopedic, neurologic, thoracoabdominal, and maxillofacial. There was one death in the series, and only one survivor sustained major long-term disability. Such injuries are managed with optimal outcome in a regional trauma center. Educational programs with an emphasis on prevention and safety measures may reduce the incidence of farm accidents. PMID:4047799

  15. Dementia and Traffic Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic......-related accidents for people aged 65 years or older with a diagnosis of dementia in Denmark. METHODS: We will conduct a nationwide population-based cohort study consisting of Danish people aged 65 or older living in Denmark as of January 1, 2008. The cohort is followed for 7 years (2008-2014). Individual's personal...... data are available in Danish registers and can be linked using a unique personal identification number. A person is identified with dementia if the person meets at least one of the following criteria: (1) a diagnosis of the disease in the Danish National Patient Register or in the Danish Psychiatric...

  16. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident... Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. It is the responsibility... obtain Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and accompanying accident docket files....

  17. Radiation accident/disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Described are the course of medical measures following Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) Accident after the quake and tsunami (Mar. 11, 2011) and the future task for radiation accident/disaster. By the first hydrogen explosion in FNPP (Mar. 12), evacuation of residents within 20 km zone was instructed, and the primary base for measures of nuclear disaster (Off-site Center) 5 km afar from FNPP had to work as a front base because of damage of communicating ways, of saving of injured persons and of elevation of dose. On Mar. 13, the medical arrangement council consisting from stuff of Fukushima Medical University (FMU), National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Nuclear Safety Research Association and Prefectural officers was setup in residents' hall of Fukushima City, and worked for correspondence to persons injured or exposed, where communication about radiation and between related organizations was still poor. The Off-site Center's head section moved to Prefectural Office on Mar. 15 as headquarters. Early in the period, all residents evacuated from the 20 km zone, and in-hospital patients and nursed elderly were transported with vehicles, >50 persons of whom reportedly died mainly by their base diseases. The nation system of medicare for emergent exposure had consisted from the network of the primary to third facilities; there were 5 facilities in the Prefecture, 3 of which were localized at 4-9 km distance from FNPP and closed early after the Accident; and the secondary facility of FMU became responsible to all exposed persons. There was no death of workers of FNPP. Medical stuff also measured the ambient dose at various places near FNPP, having had risk of exposure. At the Accident, the important system of command, control and communication was found fragile and measures hereafter should be planned on assumption of the worst scenario of complete damage of the infrastructure and communication. It is desirable for Disaster Medical Assistance Team which

  18. Accidents and human factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When the TMI accident occurred it was 4 a.m., an hour when the error potential of the operators would have been very high. The frequency of car and train accidents in Japan is also highest between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. The error potential may be classified into five phases corresponding to the electroencephalogramic pattern (EEG). At phase 0, when the delta wave appears, a person is unconscious and in deep sleep; at phase I, when the theta wave appears, he is very tired, sleepy and subnormal; at phase II, when the alpha wave appears, he is normal, relaxed and passive; at phase III, when the beta wave appears, he is normal, clear-minded and active; at phase IV, when the strong beta or epileptic wave appears, he is hypernormal, excited and incapable of normal judgement. Should an accident occur at phase II, the brain condition may jump to phase IV. At this phase the error or accident potential is maximum. The response of the human brain to different types of noises and signals may vary somewhat for different individuals and for different groups of people. Therefore, the possibility that such differences in brain functions may influence the mental structure would be worthy of consideration in human factors and in the design of man-machine systems. Human reliability and performance would be affected by many factors: medical, physiological and psychological, etc. The uncertainty involved in human factors may not necessarily be probabilistic, but fuzzy. Therefore, it would be important to develop a theory by which both non-probabilistic uncertainties, or fuzziness, of human factors and the probabilistic properties of machines can be treated consistently. From the mathematical point of view, probabilistic measure is considered a special case of fuzzy measure. Therefore, fuzzy set theory seems to be an effective tool for analysing man-machine systems. To minimize human error and the possibility of accidents, new safety systems should not only back up man and make up for his

  19. Systematic register of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Systematic Register of Nuclear Accidents is a consolidation of important accidents occurred in the world during the period 1945-1984. Important accidents can be defined as those involving high radiation doses, which require the exposed individuals to undergo medical treatment. The organization and structuring of this register rests on the necessity for the availability of a database specifically oriented to researchers interested in studying the different nuclear accidents reported. Approximately 150 accidents in that period are presented in a summary form; these accidents had been described or reported in the scientific literature or made known through informal communications of Brazilian and foreign institutions and researchers. This register can be of interest particularly to all professionals who either directly of indirectly work in the area of nuclear or radioactive installations safety. In order to facilitate analysis by the researcher, that casuistic system was divided into 3 groups: criticality accidents (table I), fall-out on Marshall Islands (table II) and external irradiation accidents (table III). It is also included an overview of accidents in that period, indicating the total number of victims, fatal cases, and number of survivors. The author offers to the reader an extensive bibliography on the accidents described. (Author)

  20. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  1. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K (Dept. of Radiology, Toeoeloe Hospital, Helsinki (Finland)), email: frank.bensch@hus.fi

    2011-12-15

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  2. Hypertabastic survival model

    OpenAIRE

    Williams David K; Bursac Zoran; Tabatabai Mohammad A; Singh Karan P

    2007-01-01

    Abstract A new two-parameter probability distribution called hypertabastic is introduced to model the survival or time-to-event data. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the hypertabastic distribution in comparison with popular distributions. We then demonstrate the application of the hypertabastic survival model by applying it to data from two motivating studies. The first one demonstrates the proportional hazards version of the model by applying it to a data se...

  3. Inoculation of a Poultry Isolate Salmonella enteritidis on Egg Vitelline Membrane: Survival and Growth in Egg Components after Different Refrigeration Storage Times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. R. Howard

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis resistant to novobiocin and nalidixic acid were inoculated on to the surface of the yolk membrane at a concentration of approximately 106 CFU mLˉ1. Yolks were then covered with albumen and incubated for 24 hrs at 25°C. After incubation, eggs were separated into component parts. Samples were removed from yolk, albumen and yolk membrane and diluted 10-fold in sterile phosphate buffered saline. In albumen, S. enteritidis counts were increased in weeks 3 and 8 compared to week 1 (trial 2. The frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis in albumen occurred at week 7 versus weeks 0 and 1 in trial 1 and weeks 3 and 8 versus weeks 0 and 2 in trial 2. In the membrane fraction, the frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis occurred at weeks 5 and 8 versus week 0 in trial 2. In the yolk fractions, S. enteritidis counts recovered from week 6 eggs were significantly higher (PS. enteritidis positive eggs were greater in week 8 than week 5 in trial 1. This suggests that egg components recovered from aged eggs stored at refrigeration temperatures infrequently supported S. enteritidis net growth but generally did not inhibit survivability.

  4. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, H. S.; Jeon, M. H.; Cho, N. J. and others [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-01-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts.

  5. Analysis of hot leg natural circulation under station blackout severe accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Under severe accidents, natural circulation flows are important to influence the accident progression and result in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). In a station blackout accident with no recovery of steam generator (SG) auxiliary feedwater (TMLB' severe accident scenario), the hot leg countercurrent natural circulation flow is analyzed by using a severe-accident code, to better understand its potential impacts on the creep-rupture timing among the surge line, the hot leg, and SG tubes. The results show that the natural circulation may delay the failure time of the hot leg.The recirculation ratio and the hot mixing factor are also calculated and discussed.

  6. Business cycles and workplace accidents in Iceland 1986- 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is the first to explore the association between business cycles and workplace accidents using Icelandic data. The relationship is evaluated for the entire labor market, for specific sectors, by gender and by the severity of injuries. Most prior research has found workplace accidents to be pro-cyclical. Hypothesized reasons include increased labor supply and greater work intensity in upswings, and that accidents are more likely to be reported. Aggregate data for workplace accidents from the Administration of Occupational Safety and Health and several macroeconomic indicators from Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour were examined. The time series were non-stationary so first differences were used to detrend them. Their relationship was then examined using a linear regression model. Data from the Directorate of Health in Iceland and Statistics Iceland were used to calculate the relative risk of an accident. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycles and work-place accidents were observed, particularly in construction, in commerce and for men. The results of the relative-risk calculations indicated that workers were at considerably greater risk of having an accident in 2007 than in 2004-2006 and 2008-2011. By comparing the different estimations of the study, one can conclude that only a small part of the variability of risk can be explained by changes in labour supply. Increased risk at work, given the labor supply, seems to be a more significant reason for increased prevalence of accidents during periods of economic expansion.

  7. Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  8. Accident management insights after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, that took place on 11 March 2011, initiated a significant number of activities at the national and international levels to reassess the safety of existing NPPs, evaluate the sufficiency of technical means and administrative measures available for emergency response, and develop recommendations for increasing the robustness of NPPs to withstand extreme external events and beyond design basis accidents. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is working closely with its member and partner countries to examine the causes of the accident and to identify lessons learnt with a view to the appropriate follow-up actions to be taken by the nuclear safety community. Accident management is a priority area of work for the NEA to address lessons being learnt from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP following the recommendations of Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA), Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI), and Committee on Radiation Protection and Public Health (CRPPH). Considering the importance of these issues, the CNRA authorised the formation of a task group on accident management (TGAM) in June 2012 to review the regulatory framework for accident management following the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. The task group was requested to assess the NEA member countries needs and challenges in light of the accident from a regulatory point of view. The general objectives of the TGAM review were to consider: - enhancements of on-site accident management procedures and guidelines based on lessons learnt from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident; - decision-making and guiding principles in emergency situations; - guidance for instrumentation, equipment and supplies for addressing long-term aspects of accident management; - guidance and implementation when taking extreme measures for accident management. The report is built on the existing bases for capabilities to respond to design basis

  9. Authority structure and industrial accidents

    OpenAIRE

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational characteristics on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. The general hypothesis is that the authority structure is a main cause of accident-proneness within organizations. On one side, the most obvious model for a safe organization would be the ideal-typical bureaucracy. On the other side, potential problems are little flexibility and control is ba...

  10. STUDY OF INJURY PATTERN IN HUMAN BEINGS IN ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS INVOLVING TWO WHEELERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seethalakshmi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available India experienced very rapid population growth from 48 million to 1.2 billion in a span of decades. In India rapid urbanization, industrialization, population explosion and migration of people in past two decades r esults in enormous growth in the field of road transportation. This resulted in increasing amount of the road traffic leading to increased risk for occurrence of road traffic accidents. In India road traffic injuries will be third leading cause of death by 2020 with the increase in the use of two wheelers and congestion and environmental pollution this mortality rate will continue to rise. Considering the preciousness of human lives, this study has been undertaken to analyse the pattern of injuries in Road Traffic Accidents Involving Two Wheelers to create awareness among the law enforcing authorities, transport authorities and public regarding two wheeler fatalities. A sincere attempt has been made in this study to analyse the distribution of the pattern of injuries sustained by two wheeler travellers, so that appropriate interventional strategies can be evolved at various levels and by different agencies. 147 Two wheeler Accident victims were randomly selected from 1063 road traffic accident cases brought t o the Institute of Forensic Medicine, Madras Medical College Chennai - 3 for routine medico legal examination. Preliminary data were collected from the medico legal documents such as history of the case, Inquest form, First Information Report, Accident Regis ter, Death Report, Clinical data submitted by the investigating officer at the time of medico legal examination. During autopsy, on external exami nation, nature of injury, size, number were measured in all cases. Internal organ injuries were recorded. Caus e of death was arrived at based on the findings made out during autopsy. Totally 147 motorcyclist victims were included in this study in which demographic factors such as age, sex, time of accident, manner of collision

  11. Chernobyl reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following the accident at Chernobyl nuclear reactor, WHO organized on 6 May 1986 in Copenhagen a one day consultation of experts with knowledge in the fields of meteorology, radiation protection, biological effects, reactor technology, emergency procedures, public health and psychology in order to analyse the development of events and their consequences and to provide guidance as to the needs for immediate public health action. The present report provides detailed information on the transportation and dispersion of the radioactive material in the atmosphere, especially volatile elements, during the release period 26 April - 5 May. Presented are the calculated directions and locations of the radioactive plume over Europe in the first 5 days after the accident, submitted by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The calculations have been made for two heights, 1500m and 750m and the plume directions are grouped into five periods, covering five European areas. The consequences of the accident inside the USSR and the radiological consequences outside the USSR are presented including the exposure routes and the biological effects, paying particular attention to iodine-131 effects. Summarized are the first reported measured exposure rates above background, iodine-131 deposition and concentrations in milk and the remedial actions taken in various European countries. Concerning the cesium-137 problem, based on the UNSCEAR assessment of the consequences of the nuclear fallout, one concludes that the cesium contamination outside the USSR is not likely to cause any serious problems. Finally, the conclusions and the recommendations of the meeting, taking into account both the short-term and longer term considerations are presented

  12. The accident of Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    RBMK reactors (reactor control, protection systems, containment) and the nuclear power plant of Chernobyl are first presented. The scenario of the accident is given with a detailed chronology. The actions and consequences on the site are reviewed. This report then give the results of the source term estimation (fision product release, core inventory, trajectories, meteorological data...), the radioactivity measurements obtained in France. Health consequences for the French population are evoked. The medical consequences for the population who have received a high level of doses are reviewed

  13. Serious accident in Peru

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A peruvian man, victim of an important accidental irradiation arrived on the Saturday twenty ninth of may 1999 to the centre of treatment of serious burns at the Percy military hospital (Clamart -France). The accident spent on the twentieth of February 1999, on the site of a hydroelectric power plant, in construction at 300 km at the East of Lima. The victim has picked up an industrial source of iridium devoted to gamma-graphy operations and put it in his back pocket; of trousers. The workman has serious radiation burns. (N.C.)

  14. Accident prevention programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study by the Steel Industry Safety and Health Commission was made within the context of the application by undertakings of the principles of accident and disease prevention previously adopted by the said Commission. It puts forward recommendations for the effective and gradual implementation of a programme of action on occupational health and safety in the various departments of an undertaking and in the undertaking as a whole. The methods proposed in this study are likely to be of interest to all undertakings in the metallurgical industry and other industrial sectors

  15. Reactor accident in Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The bibliography contains 1568 descriptions of papers devoted to Chernobylsk accident and recorded in ''INIS Atomindex'' to 30 June 1990. The descriptions were taken from ''INIS Atomindex'' and are presented in accordance with volumes of this journal (chronology of recording). Therefore all descriptions have numbers showing first the number of volume and then the number of record. The bibliography has at the end the detailed subject index consisting of 465 main headings and a lot of qualifiers. Some of them are descriptors taken from ''INIS Atomindex'' and some are key words taken from natural language. The index is in English as descriptions in the bibliography. (author)

  16. Applied survival analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  17. Guidance on accidents involving radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This annex contains advice to Health Authorities on their response to accidents involving radioactivity. The guidance is in six parts:-(1) planning the response required to nuclear accidents overseas, (2) planning the response required to UK nuclear accidents a) emergency plans for nuclear installations b) nuclear powered satellites, (3) the handling of casualties contaminated with radioactive substances, (4) background information for dealing with queries from the public in the event of an accident, (5) the national arrangements for incident involving radioactivity (NAIR), (6) administrative arrangements. (author)

  18. Unrecorded Accidents Detection on Highways Based on Temporal Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi An

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automatic traffic accident detection, especially not recorded by traffic police, is crucial to accident black spots identification and traffic safety. A new method of detecting traffic accidents is proposed based on temporal data mining, which can identify the unknown and unrecorded accidents by traffic police. Time series model was constructed using ternary numbers to reflect the state of traffic flow based on cell transmission model. In order to deal with the aftereffects of linear drift between time series and to reduce the computational cost, discrete Fourier transform was implemented to turn time series from time domain to frequency domain. The pattern of the time series when an accident happened could be recognized using the historical crash data. Then taking Euclidean distance as the similarity evaluation function, similarity data mining of the transformed time series was carried out. If the result was less than the given threshold, the two time series were similar and an accident happened probably. A numerical example was carried out and the results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Time to Let Go of the Illusion that Psychotherapy Extends the Survival of Cancer Patients: Reply to Kraemer, Kuchler, and Spiegel (2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyne, James C.; Thombs, Brett D.; Stefanek, Michael; Palmer, Steven C.

    2009-01-01

    Replies to comments from Kraemer, Kuchler, and Spiegel on the authors original article Psychotherapy and survival in cancer: The conflict between hope and evidence. The authors recently reviewed evidence related to the notion that psychotherapy extends survival in cancer patients (J. C. Coyne, M. Stefanek, & S. C. Palmer, 2007). The authors found…

  20. 1976 Hanford americium accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heid, K R; Breitenstein, B D; Palmer, H E; McMurray, B J; Wald, N

    1979-01-01

    This report presents the 2.5-year medical course of a 64-year-old Hanford nuclear chemical operator who was involved in an accident in an americium recovery facility in August 1976. He was heavily externally contaminated with americium, sustained a substantial internal deposition of this isotope, and was burned with concentrated nitric acid and injured by flying debris about the face and neck. The medical care given the patient, including the decontamination efforts and clinical laboratory studies, are discussed. In-vivo measurements were used to estimate the dose rates and the accumulated doses to body organs. Urinary and fecal excreta were collected and analyzed for americium content. Interpretation of these data was complicated by the fact that the intake resulted both from inhalation and from solubilization of the americium embedded in facial tissues. A total of 1100 ..mu..Ci was excreted in urine and feces during the first 2 years following the accident. The long-term use of diethylenetriaminepentate (DTPA), used principally as the zinc salt, is discussed including the method, route of administration, and effectiveness. To date, the patient has apparently experienced no complications attributable to this extensive course of therapy, even though he has been given approximately 560 grams of DTPA. 4 figures, 1 table.

  1. ANS severe accident program overview & planning document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1995-09-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) severe accident document was developed to provide a concise and coherent mechanism for presenting the ANS SAP goals, a strategy satisfying these goals, a succinct summary of the work done to date, and what needs to be done in the future to ensure timely licensability. Guidance was received from various bodies [viz., panel members of the ANS severe accident workshop and safety review committee, Department of Energy (DOE) orders, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements for ALWRs and advanced reactors, ACRS comments, world-wide trends] were utilized to set up the ANS-relevant SAS goals and strategy. An in-containment worker protection goal was also set up to account for the routine experimenters and other workers within containment. The strategy for achieving the goals is centered upon closing the severe accident issues that have the potential for becoming certification issues when assessed against realistic bounding events. Realistic bounding events are defined as events with an occurrency frequency greater than 10{sup {minus}6}/y. Currently, based upon the level-1 probabilistic risk assessment studies, the realistic bounding events for application for issue closure are flow blockage of fuel element coolant channels, and rapid depressurization-related accidents.

  2. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

    2001-05-01

    Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year over the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i

  3. Sleep restriction reduces the survival time and aggravates the neurological dysfunction and memory impairments in an animal model of cerebral hypoperfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Lenise Jihe; Coelho, Fernando Morgadinho; Araujo, Paula; Tedesco, Roberto Carlos; Souza, Rodrigo Barbosa; Tufik, Sergio; Andersen, Monica Levy

    2016-08-01

    Cerebral blood flow is associated with the cerebrovascular prognosis. Sleep restriction (SR) may be a limiting factor of the prognosis after a cerebrovascular event, impairing the neurological recovery. We aimed to investigate the effects of SR on mortality rate and on behavioral and histological parameters of animals submitted to permanent cerebral hypoperfusion. Sixty male Wistar rats were distributed in 4 groups, according to the protocol of common carotid artery occlusion (CCAO) and SR: nSR+nCCAO, SR+nCCAO, nSR+CCAO, and SR+CCAO. The groups SR+nCCAO and SR+CCAO were submitted to SR during 10 days. The cerebral hypoperfusion was induced by the permanent CCAO. Neurological function and memory were assessed over 14 days of cerebral hypoperfusion. Analysis of neuropathological alterations were performed in the CA1 region of hippocampus. The mortality rate was 40% in the nSR+CCAO and SR+CCAO groups. SR significantly reduced the survival time of animals submitted to CCAO. After 7 and 14 days of cerebral hypoperfusion, 11% and 33% of the nSR+CCAO and SR+CCAO animals showed severe neurological dysfunction, respectively. A significant association between a high frequency of memory impairments with the group SR+CCAO was observed. The neuropathological alterations in CA1 region of hippocampus were similar among the groups. SR potentiates the negative effects of cerebral hypoperfusion conditions, suggesting that SR could be a factor associated with a worse prognosis after a cerebrovascular event. PMID:27174002

  4. Containment severe accident thermohydraulic phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes and discusses the containment accident progression and the important severe accident containment thermohydraulic phenomena. The overall objective of the report is to provide a rather detailed presentation of the present status of phenomenological knowledge, including an account of relevant experimental investigations and to discuss, to some extent, the modelling approach used in the MAAP 3.0 computer code. The MAAP code has been used in Sweden as the main tool in the analysis of severe accidents. The dependence of the containment accident progression and containment phenomena on the initial conditions, which in turn are heavily dependent on the in-vessel accident progression and phenomena as well as associated uncertainties, is emphasized. The report is in three parts dealing with: * Swedish reactor containments, the severe accident mitigation programme in Sweden and containment accident progression in Swedish PWRs and BWRs as predicted by the MAAP 3.0 code. * Key non-energetic ex-vessel phenomena (melt fragmentation in water, melt quenching and coolability, core-concrete interaction and high temperature in containment). * Early containment threats due to energetic events (hydrogen combustion, high pressure melt ejection and direct containment heating, and ex-vessel steam explosions). The report concludes that our understanding of the containment severe accident progression and phenomena has improved very significantly over the parts ten years and, thereby, our ability to assess containment threats, to quantify uncertainties, and to interpret the results of experiments and computer code calculations have also increased. (au)

  5. Preventing accidents at intake towers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villegas, F. (INTEGRAL S.A., Medellin, CO (United States))

    1994-03-01

    Strong air blow-outs occurring in the intake tower of Guatape Hydroelectric Power Plant in Colombia have caused two serious accidents recently. The causes of the accidents were investigated and recommendations are made here to prevent future repetitions of these dangerous events. (UK)

  6. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McClure, J. D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10/sup -7/ spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10/sup -9//mile.

  7. Density of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes correlates with extent of brain edema and overall survival time in patients with brain metastases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berghoff, Anna S; Fuchs, Elisabeth; Ricken, Gerda; Mlecnik, Bernhard; Bindea, Gabriela; Spanberger, Thomas; Hackl, Monika; Widhalm, Georg; Dieckmann, Karin; Prayer, Daniela; Bilocq, Amelie; Heinzl, Harald; Zielinski, Christoph; Bartsch, Rupert; Birner, Peter; Galon, Jerome; Preusser, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    The immune microenvironment of the brain differs from that of other organs and the role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in brain metastases (BM), one of the most common and devastating complication of cancer, is unclear. We investigated TIL subsets and their prognostic impact in 116 BM specimens using immunohistochemistry for CD3, CD8, CD45RO, FOXP3, PD1 and PD-L1. The Immunoscore was calculated as published previously. Overall, we found TIL infiltration in 115/116 (99.1%) BM specimens. PD-L1 expression was evident in 19/67 (28.4%) BM specimens and showed no correlation with TIL density (p > 0.05). TIL density was not associated with corticosteroid administration (p > 0.05). A significant difference in infiltration density according to TIL subtype was present (p < 0.001; Chi Square); high infiltration was most frequently observed for CD3+ TILs (95/116; 81.9%) and least frequently for PD1+ TILs (18/116; 15.5%; p < 0.001). Highest TIL density was observed in melanoma, followed by renal cell cancer and lung cancer BM (p < 0.001). The density of CD8+ TILs correlated positively with the extent of peritumoral edema seen on pre-operative magnetic resonance imaging (p = 0.031). The density of CD3+ (15 vs. 6 mo; p = 0.015), CD8+ (15 vs. 11 mo; p = 0.030) and CD45RO+ TILs (18 vs. 8 mo; p = 0.006) showed a positive correlation with favorable median OS times. Immunoscore showed significant correlation with survival prognosis (27 vs. 10 mo; p < 0.001). The prognostic impact of Immunoscore was independent from established prognostic parameters at multivariable analysis (HR 0.612, p < 0.001). In conclusion, our data indicate that dense TILs infiltrates are common in BM and correlate with the amount of peritumoral brain edema and survival prognosis, thus identifying the immune system as potential biomarker for cancer patients with CNS affection. Further studies are needed to substantiate our findings. PMID:26942067

  8. [Electrophysiologic criteria for the prevention of electric accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupfer, J

    1990-11-01

    About 0.25 percent of all registered industrial accidents are caused by electric current. One in 20 of these accidents has been fatal. The consequences of electric flow are determined by several factors, above all voltage, time and path of flow, type of current, and resistors within the power circuit. These are attributable to physiological criteria of conduction. Slight electric shock and death by ventricular fibrillation are close to each other by the all-or-nothing law. Conclusions are suggested for practice, and a discussion is proposed with a view to find an adequate definition of the power-related accident. PMID:2085034

  9. Traffic Accident, System Model and Cluster Analysis in GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Vlčková

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the many often frequented topics as normal journalism, so the professional public, is the problem of traffic accidents. This article illustrates the orientation of considerations to a less known context of accidents, with the help of constructive systems theory and its methods, cluster analysis and geoinformation engineering. Traffic accident is reframing the space-time, and therefore it can be to study with tools of technology of geographic information systems. The application of system approach enabling the formulation of the system model, grabbed by tools of geoinformation engineering and multicriterial and cluster analysis.

  10. Statistical modelling of the frequency and severity of road accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær

    management tool.Initially models were built by using existing traffic accident data collected by the police and emergency rooms in Denmark. The data registered by the police was collected on traffic accidents occurred on Danish roads in the period between 2002 and 2008. The emergency room data were collected...... to be the most relevant factor related to the lack of intention to report future cycling accidents. Secondly, the factors: concerns about family distress and social image and preference to allocate time to other activities are both associated with non-reporting intentions (Paper 3). 5) New information about...

  11. Pseuchoneurotic disorders associated with the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This survey relied largely on random selection. As a rule, the attention of the specialists was directed to people with certain specific complaints. Psychogenic disorders observed in the area of the accident at the Chernobyl plant were followed and studied by a team of specialists from the USSR Ministry of Health, beginning on 29 April 1986. According to the nature of the observed stress effects and of the resultant psychic disorders, it was possible to delineate three periods: first the acute period of the disaster from the time of the accident, lasting about 10 days until completion of the evacuation of the population from the danger zone (5 May); second the intermediate delayed period, the period of comparatively early consequences (from 6 May to October 1986); and third, the period of remote consequences. In the course of the year, 1,572 people were examined. The data available indicate that the psychogenic disorders observed after the Chernobyl accident can be regarded as the consequence of a single process, the dynamics of which are determined on the one hand by the characteristics of the emergency situation and on the other by the traits and the degree of preparedness of the people involved. The special nature of the stress situation in all three periods - the threat to health - gave rise to certain characteristic clinical observations, primarily a high degree of somatization and hypochondria. An understanding of the psychological disorders affecting those who lived through the Chernobyl accident, and of their effects on the work capability and pattern of life of people at various stages after the accident, has made it possible to develop and implement a complex and refined system of prophylactic and medical measures. (author)

  12. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. PMID:23928504

  13. Road Traffic Accidents - The Number One Killer in Libya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulmajid Ahmed Ali

    2007-01-01

    and a seatbelt. I had to apologize profusely to the young traffic policeman and explain that I was wearing sunglasses because I was driving facing the sun! The reason for wearing the seatbelt was a habit from living abroad for many years and I was not a "show off" as he put it! This incidence made me wonder how much the traffic police knew about the law?• In Libya the way we behave in the street, the way we drive and our attitude towards pedestrians is not taught in schools at an early age. As a matter of fact, many drivers think it is "cool" to scare pedestrians.• Most of the accidents in Libya occur at school times but unfortunately no measures are taken by the traffic police to help young children to cross roads safely.• Most of the road traffic accidents happen at the same areas but these are never identified as "black spots" to warn drivers of the possible dangers.• Although Zebra Crossings exist in some parts of Libya, they actually do not serve the purpose. We just need to count how many pedestrians (especially foreign visitors have been knocked down at Zebra Crossings.• There is a need for new road signs, clear road markings (lanes, and new traffic lights to replace old and often non-functioning ones.• One study demonstrated that speeding was responsible for about 70% of accidents [4]. There are no speed cameras or road humps to slow down speeding cars, therefore residents who have lost children to road traffic accidents resort to building their own version of street humps made from old pipes, thick ropes or cement.• Most of the main roads are full of holes and in desperate need of maintenance.• Car seats for children are not compulsory.• When accidents happen in Libya, what number do we dial? Do emergency services exist?• It is a known fact that most of the deaths and permanent disabilities in road traffic accidents are caused by people trying to help due to the lack of Advanced Trauma and Life Support (ATLS trained personnel [5,6].• It

  14. SURVIV for survival analysis of mRNA isoform variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Shihao; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Chengyang; Wu, Ying Nian; Xing, Yi

    2016-01-01

    The rapid accumulation of clinical RNA-seq data sets has provided the opportunity to associate mRNA isoform variations to clinical outcomes. Here we report a statistical method SURVIV (Survival analysis of mRNA Isoform Variation), designed for identifying mRNA isoform variation associated with patient survival time. A unique feature and major strength of SURVIV is that it models the measurement uncertainty of mRNA isoform ratio in RNA-seq data. Simulation studies suggest that SURVIV outperforms the conventional Cox regression survival analysis, especially for data sets with modest sequencing depth. We applied SURVIV to TCGA RNA-seq data of invasive ductal carcinoma as well as five additional cancer types. Alternative splicing-based survival predictors consistently outperform gene expression-based survival predictors, and the integration of clinical, gene expression and alternative splicing profiles leads to the best survival prediction. We anticipate that SURVIV will have broad utilities for analysing diverse types of mRNA isoform variation in large-scale clinical RNA-seq projects. PMID:27279334

  15. Effect of integrated Chinese medical treatment on the survival time of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: a clinical study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘苓霜

    2014-01-01

    Objective To observe clinical effect of integrated Chinese medical(CM)treatment(as maintenance therapy)on the progression-free survival(PFS)and overall survival(OS)in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer(NSCLC)after first-line chemotherapy.Methods The study was a prospective,randomized,controlled clinical trial.Totally 69 non-progressive advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy were

  16. EPIDEMIOGY OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN TEHRAN 1.EVENT: THE ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Nasseri

    1977-11-01

    Full Text Available A total of 38, 300 traffic collisions have occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran, during 1973. 5, 655 of these collisions in 6, 700 injuries and 560 deaths are selected and discussed. There has been no difference between the accident rates in working and holidays. Winter has had the lowest rate, and accidents have been in direct relationship with the crowdedness and heavy traffic periods. Ninety – eight per cent of the accidents have been caused by either the drivers or the pedestrians’ negligence. These and other findings are discussed.

  17. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Ne...... and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users.......Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers...... was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number...

  18. Telematics and Gender Discrimination: Some Usage-Based Evidence on Whether Men’s Risk of Accidents Differs from Women’s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes Ayuso

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD, or usage-based automobile insurance (UBI, is a policy agreement tied to vehicle usage. In this paper we analyze the effect of the distance traveled on the risk of accidents among young drivers with a PAYD policy. We use regression models for survival data to estimate how long it takes them to have their first accident at fault during the coverage period. Our empirical application with real data is presented and shows that gender differences are mainly attributable to the intensity of use. Indeed, although gender has a significant effect in explaining the time to the first crash, this effect is no longer significant when the average distance traveled per day is introduced in the model. This suggests that gender differences in the risk of accidents are, to a large extent, attributable to the fact that men drive more often than women. Estimates of the time to the first accident for different driver risk types are presented. We conclude that no gender discrimination is necessary if telematics provides enough information on driving habits.

  19. Containment building hydrogen control methods related to degraded core accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degraded core accident-related release of hydrogen under some circumstances may threaten the integrity of pressurized water reactor containment buildings. This report provides a preliminary survey of a spectrum of possible approaches which could be adopted to maintain containment building integrity under accident conditions which lead to the release of hydrogen. Particular attention is directed to large, dry containment of the Zion and Indian Point designs. For any such possible accident, there exists a sequence of time intervals characterizing the accident scenario. This report considers the generic features of these intervals and discusses the suitability of various approaches to hydrogen accident control as related to the characteristics of the interval during which they are applied. It was found that various options exist for hydrogen control strategies and that their usefulness depends on the particular accident scenarios to be considered. Of all the hydrogen control approaches considered, a strategy of continuous inerting of the containment building is the only one which clearly eliminates the combustion hazard, does not involve adverse environmental effects, and succeeds in a way that is independent of the accident scenario

  20. Accidents caused by electric currents; Unfaelle durch elektrischen Strom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juehling, J. [Berufsgenossenschaft der Feinmechanik und Elektrotechnik, Koeln (Germany). Inst. zur Erforschung Elektrischer Unfaelle

    1998-12-31

    The present evaluation only refers to accidents caused by electric currents in member companies of the employees` industrial compensation society of the fine mechanics and electrical engineering professions (BGFE). In some cases the institute also publishes statistics on the frequency time course of electrical accidents which deviate from those the relevant annual report. This is mainly due to the fact that these statistics also contain non-notifiable accidents communicated via medical reports and the supplementary report on electrical accidents. They further contain keyed data on electrical accidents reported by other employees` industrial compensation societies. Inquiries made to the institute may therefore be answered on the basis of all the above-mentioned data on electrical accidents as well as on the overall accident statistics of the BGFE. [Deutsch] Die nachfolgenden Auswertungen beziehen sich nur auf Unfaelle in Mitgliedsbetrieben der BG F und E, verursacht durch den elektrischen Strom. Zum Teil veroeffentlicht aber das Institut Zahlen ueber die zeitliche Entwicklung von Stromunfaellen, die nicht immer mit den Angaben der jeweiligen Jahresberichte uebereinstimmen muessen. Das liegt vor allem daran, dass auch nicht-meldepflichtige Unfaelle ueber den D-Arztbericht und ueber den Ergaenzungsbericht bei Unfaellen durch elektrischen Strom - also ueber aerztliche Erhebungsformulare - erfasst werden. Ausserdem werden auch von anderen Berufsgenossenschaften eingehende Stromunfaelle verschluesselt. Zur Beantwortung von Anfragen an das Institut koennen also all die vorgenannten Daten zu elektrischen Unfaellen und natuerlich auch die Zahlen zum Gesamtunfallgeschehen der BG F und E herangezogen werden. (orig.)

  1. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research. PMID:25997167

  2. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

    2008-08-01

    Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

  3. Nuclear power plant Severe Accident Research Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Severe Accident Research Plan (SARP) will provide technical information necessary to support regulatory decisions in the severe accident area for existing or planned nuclear power plants, and covers research for the time period of January 1982 through January 1986. SARP will develop generic bases to determine how safe the plants are and where and how their level of safety ought to be improved. The analysis to address these issues will be performed using improved probabilistic risk assessment methodology, as benchmarked to more exact data and analysis. There are thirteen program elements in the plan and the work is phased in two parts, with the first phase being completed in early 1984, at which time an assessment will be made whether or not any major changes will be recommended to the Commission for operating plants to handle severe accidents. Additionally at this time, all of the thirteen program elements in Chapter 5 will be reviewed and assessed in terms of how much additional work is necessary and where major impacts in probabilistic risk assessment might be achieved. Confirmatory research will be carried out in phase II to provide additional assurance on the appropriateness of phase I decisions. Most of this work will be concluded by early 1986

  4. Workstation-based interactive accident simulator for the MHTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper summarizes research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in preliminary determinations of licensability of the US Department of Energy (DOE) reference design of a standard modular high- temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). Accidents transients in MHTGRs are characterized by very long heatup times due to the large core heat capacity. This paper describes the development and use of an interactive simulation tool for performing independent analyses of MHTGR postulated core heatup accidents

  5. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  6. An analysis of accident data for franchised public buses in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, W A; Courtney, A J

    1985-10-01

    This paper analyses data on accidents involving franchised public buses operating in Hong Kong. The data were obtained from the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Hong Kong Government Transport Department, the two major franchised bus operators and international sources. The analysis includes an international comparison of accidents with emphasis on the situation in Hong Kong compared to urban areas in the United Kingdom. An attempt has been made to identify the characteristics of bus accidents; accident incidence has been related to time of day, day of the week, time of year, weather conditions, driver's age and experience, hours on duty and policy-reported cause. The results indicate that Hong Kong has a high accident rate compared to Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A., with particularly high pedestrian involvement rates. Bus accidents peak at around 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM but the accident rate is high throughout the day. Monday and Saturday appear to have a higher than average accident rate. The variability of accident rate throughout the year does not seem to be significant and the accident rate does not appear to be influenced by weather conditions. Older, more experienced drivers generally have a safer driving record than their younger, less experienced colleagues. Accident occurrence is related to the time the driver has been on duty. The paper questions the reliability of police-reported accident causation data and suggests improvements in the design of the accident report form and in the training of police investigators. The relevance of the Hong Kong study for accident research in general is also discussed. PMID:4096796

  7. International aspects of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident at Chernobyl revealed that there were shortcomings and gaps in the existing international mechanisms and brought home to governments the need for stronger measures to provide better protection against the risks of severe accidents. The main thrust of international co-operation with regard to nuclear safety issues is aimed at achieving a uniformly high level of safety in nuclear power plants through continuous exchanges of research findings and feedback from reactor operating experience. The second type of problem posed in the event of an accident resulting in radioactive contamination of several countries relates to the obligation to notify details of the circumstances and nature of the accident speedily so that the countries affected can take appropriate protective measures and, if necessary, organize mutual assistance. Giving the public accurate information is also an important aspect of managing an emergency situation arising from a severe accident. Finally, the confusion resulting from the unwarranted variety of protective measures implemented after the Chernobyl accident has highlighted the need for international harmonization of the principles and scientific criteria applicable to the protection of the public in the event of an accident and for a more consistent approach to emergency plans. The international conventions on third party liability in the nuclear energy sector (Paris/Brussels Conventions and the Vienna Convention) provide for compensation for damage caused by nuclear accidents in accordance with the rules and jurisdiction that they lay down. These provisions impose obligations on the operator responsible for an accident, and the State where the nuclear facility is located, towards the victims of damage caused in another country

  8. Effect of growth on the thermal resistance and survival of Salmonella Tennessee and Oranienburg in peanut butter, measured by a new thin-layer thermal death time device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Susanne E; Grasso, Elizabeth M; Halik, Lindsay A; Fleischman, Gregory J; Chirtel, Stuart J; Grove, Stephen F

    2012-06-01

    In published data the thermal destruction of Salmonella species in peanut butter deviates from pseudo-first-order kinetics. The reasons for such deviation are unknown. This study examined both the method used to measure the thermal destruction rate and the method of growth of the microorganisms to explain variations in destruction kinetics. Growth on a solid matrix results in a different physiological state that may provide greater resistance to adverse environments. In this study, Salmonella Tennessee and Oranienburg were grown for 24 h at 37°C under aerobic conditions in broth and agar media to represent planktonic and sessile cell growth, respectively. Peanut butter was held at 25°C and tested for Salmonella levels immediately after inoculation and at various time intervals up to 2 weeks. Thermal resistance was measured at 85°C by use of a newly developed thin-layer metal sample holder. Although thermal heat transfer through the metal device resulted in longer tau values than those obtained with plastic bags (32.5 ± 0.9 versus 12.4 ± 1.9 s), the bags have a relative variability of about 15 % compared with about 3 % in the plates, allowing improved uniformity of sample treatment. The two serovars tested in the thin-layer device showed similar overall thermal resistance levels in peanut butter regardless of growth in sessile or planktonic states. However, thermal destruction curves from sessile cultures exhibited greater linearity than those obtained from planktonic cells (P = 0.0198 and 0.0047 for Salmonella Oranienburg and Salmonella Tennessee, respectively). In addition, both Salmonella serovars showed significantly higher survival in peanut butter at 25°C when originally grown on solid media (P = 0.001) with a environment such as peanut butter. PMID:22691482

  9. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  10. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  11. Occupational Radiation Protection in Severe Accident Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    protection job coverage during severe accident response. The IAEA defines a 'Severe Accident' as a beyond design basis accident comprising of accident conditions more severe than a design basis accident, involving significant core degradation. Preparation of the report The expert group met several times to share their experience and develop an interim (preliminary) report by the end of 2013. The content of the report is thus based on current reflections and action plans undertaken by the ISOE participating utilities and regulatory authorities to improve the emergency response plans in the event of a severe nuclear accident from the point of view of occupational radiation protection. A specific attention has been given to the analysis of past nuclear accidents (TMI-2, USA-1979; Chernobyl, USSR-1986 and Fukushima Daiichi, Japan-2011) and to the integration of the occupational radiation protection (ORP) lessons learned from these accidents into the various chapters of the report (See synthesis of these lessons learned in Appendix-1). To finalize the report, an international workshop was organized in 2014 to present and discuss the content of the interim version and share national experiences on best occupational RP management practices and protocols for optimum RP job coverage during severe accident, initial response and recovery efforts (see Appendix-2). The workshop notably allowed to improve and complete the report which has then be submitted to the ISOE Management Board for approval. This report comprises five main chapters. Chapter 2 provides essential information on radiation protection management and organisation. Chapter 3 establishes the goal of radiation protection training and exercises related to severe accident management. Chapter 4 discusses facility characteristics that must be considered when planning actions in response to a severe accident. Chapter 5 introduces an overall approach for the protection of workers / responders with its interpretation and

  12. Road Traffic Accidents: A Wild Life Exterminator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiseh Kavandi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Once commonly traced in various parts of Southwest Asia, the Iranian cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, a disparagingly endangered cheetah subspecies, seems to have been driven to extinction. Restricted to its only remained appropriate habitat, The Iranian cheetah has barely survived in Iran's Dasht-e Kavir plateau. Throughout the 1970s, about 200 cheetahs were estimated to live in seven protected areas in Iran (1. Nevertheless, the figures dramatically declined to 50 and 60 individuals in 2005–2006. Over ten years, Iranian researchers captured images of 76 individual cheetahs using 80 camera traps implanted throughout the Dasht-e Kavir plateau (2. Disappointingly in 2011, camera traps captured only 20 individuals in the protected areas (2, 3. What adds insult to the injury is knowing the fact that two-thirds of cheetah deaths in 2012–2013 were due to road accidents(4.     Beside the human fatalities and injuries, road traffic accidents remain as serious threats for wildlife. Although numerous measures are taken to hinder the extinction of this subspecies, efforts should be concentrated on long-term planning at both national and international levels to raise awareness and promote willingness to address this ongoing yet controllable damage. 

  13. Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robb, Kevin R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramic microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

  14. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  15. Estimating the frequency of nuclear accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Raju, Suvrat

    2016-01-01

    We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents with some simplifying assumptions regarding their probability distribution is sufficient to rule out the validity of the industry's analyses at a very high confidence level. We show that this conclusion is robust against any reasonable assumed variation of safety standards over time, and across regions. The debate on nuclear liability indicates that the industry has independently arrived at this conclusion. We pay special attention to the Indian situation, where we show that the existing operating experience provides insufficient data to make any reliable claims about the safety of future reactors. We briefly discuss some policy implications.

  16. Survival after blood transfusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Ahlgren, Martin; Rostgaard, Klaus;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Long-term survival of transfusion recipients has rarely been studied. This study examines short- and long-term mortality among transfusion recipients and reports these as absolute rates and rates relative to the general population. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Population-based cohort study...... of transfusion recipients in Denmark and Sweden followed for up to 20 years after their first blood transfusion. Main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,118,261 transfusion recipients were identified, of whom 62.0 percent were aged 65 years or older at the time of their first...... registered transfusion. Three months after the first transfusion, 84.3 percent of recipients were alive. One-, 5-, and 20-year posttransfusion survival was 73.7, 53.4, and 27.0 percent, respectively. Survival was slightly poorer in men than in women, decreased with increasing age, and was worst...

  17. The relationship between level of plasma D-dimer and survival time in metastatic gastric cancer patients%血浆D-二聚体水平与转移性胃癌患者生存期的关系

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaodong Jiao; Jianxin Qian; Guanzhen Yu; Rui Li; Zhan Wang; Jin Wang; Xiaoqiang Gu; Jiejun Wang

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The principal purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between level of plasma D-dimer and survival time in metastatic gastric cancer patients. Methods: We retrospectively collected the data of plasma D-dimer in metastatic gastric cancer patients admitted in our Department (Department of Oncology, The Affiliated Changzheng Hospital, The Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China) from October 2006 to October 2008 and analyzed the relationship between level of plasma D-dimer and survival time along with other clinicopathologic parameters. Results: A total of 82 patients were studied in our research, 52 were males and 30 females, and the mean age was 57 years. The 48 cases had a normal plasma D-dimer level (< 300 μg/L) and 34 had a high plasma D-dimer level (≥ 300 μg/L). In the normal and high plasma D-dimer level groups, the mean survival times were 10.9 (95% CI: 9.8-12.2) months and 6.8 (95% CI: 4.4-7.6) months respectively, and the difference was statistically significant. Conclusion: Metastatic gastric cancer patients with high plasma D-dimer level had significantly shorter survival time than those with normal plasma D-dimer level. Level of plasma D-dimer can be referred as a potential predictor in metastatic gastric cancer patients.

  18. Potential factors affecting survival differ by run-timing and location: linear mixed-effects models of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. in the Klamath River, California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M Quiñones

    Full Text Available Understanding factors influencing survival of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. is essential to species conservation, because drivers of mortality can vary over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although recent studies have evaluated the effects of climate, habitat quality, or resource management (e.g., hatchery operations on salmonid recruitment and survival, a failure to look at multiple factors simultaneously leaves open questions about the relative importance of different factors. We analyzed the relationship between ten factors and survival (1980-2007 of four populations of salmonids with distinct life histories from two adjacent watersheds (Salmon and Scott rivers in the Klamath River basin, California. The factors were ocean abundance, ocean harvest, hatchery releases, hatchery returns, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, snow depth, flow, and watershed disturbance. Permutation tests and linear mixed-effects models tested effects of factors on survival of each taxon. Potential factors affecting survival differed among taxa and between locations. Fall Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha survival trends appeared to be driven partially or entirely by hatchery practices. Trends in three taxa (Salmon River spring Chinook salmon, Scott River fall Chinook salmon; Salmon River summer steelhead trout O. mykiss were also likely driven by factors subject to climatic forcing (ocean abundance, summer flow. Our findings underscore the importance of multiple factors in simultaneously driving population trends in widespread species such as anadromous salmonids. They also show that the suite of factors may differ among different taxa in the same location as well as among populations of the same taxa in different watersheds. In the Klamath basin, hatchery practices need to be reevaluated to protect wild salmonids.

  19. Three Mile Island Accident Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Three Mile Island Accident Data consists of mostly upper air and wind observations immediately following the nuclear meltdown occurring on March 28, 1979, near...

  20. Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, Kazuki

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

  1. Effects of Car Accidents on Three-Lane Traffic Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A three-lane traffic flow model is proposed to investigate the effect of car accidents on the traffic flow. The model is an extension of the full velocity difference (FVD model by taking into account the lane changing. The extended lane-changing rules are presented to model the lane-changing behaviour. The cases that the car accidents occupy the exterior or interior lane, the medium lane, and two lanes are studied by numerical simulations. The time-space diagrams and the current diagrams are presented, and the traffic jams are investigated. The results show that the car accident has a different effect on the traffic flow when it occupies different lanes. The car accidents have a more serious effect on the whole road when they occupy two lanes. The larger the density is, the greater the influence on the traffic flow becomes.

  2. 29 CFR 1960.29 - Accident investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Accident investigation. 1960.29 Section 1960.29 Labor... MATTERS Inspection and Abatement § 1960.29 Accident investigation. (a) While all accidents should be investigated, including accidents involving property damage only, the extent of such investigation shall...

  3. 49 CFR 195.54 - Accident reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 195.54 Section 195.54... PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.54 Accident reports. (a) Each operator that experiences an accident that is required to be reported under § 195.50 shall as soon...

  4. 49 CFR 801.32 - Accident reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 801.32 Section 801.32... PUBLIC AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION Accident Investigation Records § 801.32 Accident reports. (a) The NTSB....S. civil transportation accidents, in accordance with 49 U.S.C. 1131(e). (b) These reports may...

  5. The measurement of accident-proneness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the measurement of accident-proneness. Accidents seem easy to observe, however accident-proneness is difficult to measure. In this paper I first define the concept of accident-proneness, and I develop an instrument to measure it. The research is mainly executed within chemical

  6. 49 CFR 230.22 - Accident reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 230.22 Section 230.22... Requirements § 230.22 Accident reports. In the case of an accident due to failure, from any cause, of a steam... persons, the railroad on whose line the accident occurred shall immediately make a telephone report of...

  7. 49 CFR 845.40 - Accident report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident report. 845.40 Section 845.40... RULES OF PRACTICE IN TRANSPORTATION; ACCIDENT/INCIDENT HEARINGS AND REPORTS Board Reports § 845.40 Accident report. (a) The Board will issue a detailed narrative accident report in connection with...

  8. Evaluation Metrics Applied to Accident Tolerant Fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton; Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner

    2014-10-01

    The safe, reliable, and economic operation of the nation’s nuclear power reactor fleet has always been a top priority for the United States’ nuclear industry. Continual improvement of technology, including advanced materials and nuclear fuels, remains central to the industry’s success. Decades of research combined with continual operation have produced steady advancements in technology and have yielded an extensive base of data, experience, and knowledge on light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance under both normal and accident conditions. One of the current missions of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is to develop nuclear fuels and claddings with enhanced accident tolerance for use in the current fleet of commercial LWRs or in reactor concepts with design certifications (GEN-III+). Accident tolerance became a focus within advanced LWR research upon direction from Congress following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting tsunami, and subsequent damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant complex. The overall goal of ATF development is to identify alternative fuel system technologies to further enhance the safety, competitiveness and economics of commercial nuclear power. Enhanced accident tolerant fuels would endure loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer period of time than the current fuel system while maintaining or improving performance during normal operations. The U.S. DOE is supporting multiple teams to investigate a number of technologies that may improve fuel system response and behavior in accident conditions, with team leadership provided by DOE national laboratories, universities, and the nuclear industry. Concepts under consideration offer both evolutionary and revolutionary changes to the current nuclear fuel system. Mature concepts will be tested in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory beginning in Summer 2014 with additional concepts being

  9. Evaluation Metrics Applied to Accident Tolerant Fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safe, reliable, and economic operation of the nation’s nuclear power reactor fleet has always been a top priority for the United States’ nuclear industry. Continual improvement of technology, including advanced materials and nuclear fuels, remains central to the industry’s success. Decades of research combined with continual operation have produced steady advancements in technology and have yielded an extensive base of data, experience, and knowledge on light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance under both normal and accident conditions. One of the current missions of the US. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is to develop nuclear fuels and claddings with enhanced accident tolerance characteristics for use in the current fleet of commercial LWRs or in reactor concepts with design certifications (GEN-III+). LWR fuel with accident tolerant characteristics became a focus within advanced LWR research following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting tsunami, and subsequent damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant complex, and upon receiving direction from Congress. The overall goal of ATF development is to identify alternative fuel system technologies to further enhance the safety, competitiveness and economics of commercial nuclear power. Enhanced accident tolerant fuels would endure loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer period of time than the current fuel system while maintaining or improving performance during normal operations. The US. DOE is supporting multiple teams to investigate a number of technologies that may improve fuel system response and behaviour in accident conditions, with team leadership provided by DOE national laboratories, universities, and the nuclear industry. Concepts under consideration offer both evolutionary and revolutionary changes to the current nuclear fuel system. Mature concepts will be tested in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National

  10. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH

  11. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  12. CARNSORE: Hypothetical reactor accident study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two types of design-basis accident and a series of hypothetical core-melt accidents to a 600 MWe reactor are described and their consequences assessed. The PLUCON 2 model was used to calculate the consequences which are presented in terms of individual and collective doses, as well as early and late health consequences. The site proposed for the nucelar power station is Carnsore Point, County Wexford, south-east Ireland. The release fractions for the accidents described are those given in WASH-1400. The analyses are based on the resident population as given in the 1979 census and on 20 years of data from the meteorological stations at Rosslare Harbour, 8.5 km north of the site. The consequences of one of the hypothetical core-melt accidents are described in detail in a meteorological parametric study. Likewise the consequences of the worst conceivable combination of situations are described. Finally, the release fraction in one accident is varied and the consequences of a proposed, more probable ''Class 9 accident'' are presented. (author)

  13. Radiological accidents: education for prevention and confrontation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this work is to train and inform on radiological accidents as a preventive measure to improve the people life quality. Radiological accidents are part of the events of technological origin which are composed of nuclear and radiological accidents. As a notable figure is determined that there have been 423 radiological accidents from 1944 to 2005 and among the causes prevail industrial accidents, by irradiations, medical accidents and of laboratories, among others. Latin American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru are some where most accidents have occurred by radioactivity. The radiological accidents can have sociological, environmental, economic, social and political consequences. In addition, there are scenarios of potential nuclear accidents and in them the potential human consequences. Also, the importance of the organization and planning in a nuclear emergency is highlighted. Finally, the experience that Cuba has lived on the subject of radiological accidents is described

  14. Ophidic accident and twin pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saavedra-Orozco Héctor

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: around of 3000 types of snakes are known, from which just 15% arevenomous. Depending of the environmental, geographical and socio-demographiccharacteristics, there are significant differences in the incidence of cases of ophidicaccidents. Colombia reports 6 by each 100.000 habitants, 2.300 cases/year, with amortality of 5.6%. In a pregnant woman it is a rare event, between 1.4% and 4%, andit usually complicates seriously to the mother and to the product of the gestation. Theprevious thing will depend of the opportunity with which the suitable management isfulfilled and of the severity of the poisoning. Nowadays it isn´t clear the security of theantiophidic serum for the product, it has been related with miscarriage in early stagesof pregnancy and fetal death at the end of the pregnancy. Nevertheless, its appropriateadministration is the unique effective measure to avoid serious consequences andmaternal death.Clinical case: patient of 16 years old, G2 C1, with diagnosis of diamniotic dichorionic twinpregnancy of 36 weeks and ophidic accident of bothropic type of 16 hours of evolution.Right inferior limb with pain, edema grade III, blush, heat, formation of flictenas andecchymosis in its distal third. Laboratory tests indicate prolongation of the clotting time,elevated transaminases and elevated creatinine. It is considered the presence of severepoisoning and management with antiophidic serum is initiated. The pregnancy is finishedby cesarean as a result of maternal renal and hepatic dysfunction, and postoperativecare in UCI. The products are born with severe respiratory depression; they are carriedto neonatal intensive care unit with good evolution and hospital expenditure to thefive days. Next day to the cesarean, the patient presents compartment syndrome,for which fasciotomy is fulfilled. When the patient gets adequate recovery, it is donea cutaneous hanging tatter and after 27 days of hospitalization one gives exit withadequate

  15. Radioprotective effects of miso (fermented soy bean paste) against radiation in B6C3F1 mice. Increased small intestinal crypt survival, crypt lengths and prolongation of average time to death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radioprotective effect of miso, a fermentation product from soy bean, was investigated with reference to the survival time, crypt survival and jejunum crypt length in male B6C3F1 mice. Miso at three different fermentation stages (early-, medium- and long-term fermented miso) was mixed in MF diet into biscuits at 10% and was administered from 1 week before irradiation. Animal survival in the long-term fermented miso group was significantly prolonged as compared with the short-term fermented miso and MF cases after 8 Gy of 60Co-γ-ray irradiation at a dose rate of 2 Gy min-1. Delay in mortality was evident in all three miso groups, with significantly increased survival. At doses of 10 and 12 Gy X-irradiation at a dose rate of 4 Gy min-1, the treatment with long-term fermented miso significantly increased crypt survival. Also the protective influence against irradiation in terms of crypt lengths in the long-term fermented miso group was significantly greater than in the short-term or medium-term fermented miso and MF diet groups. Thus, prolonged fermentation appears to be very important for protection against radiation effects. (author)

  16. Effect of steam-exhaust operation of secondary coolant circuit on ship reactor blackout accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The ship reactor blackout accident (SRBA) is simulated by the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code. • The mitigation effect of steam-exhaust-operation (SEO) on the SRBA is analyzed. • Reasonable SEO scheme can obviously mitigate the accident for several hours. • The SEO scheme without feed water device can hardly mitigate the SRBA. • The failure of intercurrent steam flux control valve will result in the decrease of mitigation time. - Abstract: The ship reactor blackout accident can potentially lead to the severe accident and the radioactive fission product release. In the absence of auxiliary electrical source, the effective mitigation of the accident aftereffect is very important. As the exclusive heat trap in the reactor coolant system, the steam-exhaust operation (SEO) in the secondary coolant circuit (SCC) plays an important role in the accident mitigation. In view of the character of ship nuclear power plant (NPP), the ship reactor blackout accident (SRBA) under the typical operating conditions is simulated by the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code, and the mitigation of SEO on the accident is analyzed. It is found that (1) reasonable SEO can obviously mitigate the accident for several hours, the SEO with 1% rated steam flux of secondary coolant circuit provides about 7 h for the mitigation of accident, (2) a less steam flux of SCC during the SEO means a slower pressure drop of steam generation (SG) and a more time we can mitigate the accident, there are 1.5 h between the SEO with 1% rated steam flux and that with 3% rated steam flux, (3) the SEO without the feed water device can hardly mitigate the accident, and (4) during the blackout accident, the SEO with intercurrent steam flux control valve failure will result in the decrease of mitigation time because of the quick decrease of SG pressure, but the mitigation effect is also obvious

  17. [Accidents of fulguration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virenque, C; Laguerre, J

    1976-01-01

    Fulguration, first electric accident in which the man was a victim, is to day better known. A clap of thunder is decomposed in two elements: lightning, and thunder. Lightning is caused by an electrical discharge, either within a cloud, or between two clouds, or, above all, between a cloud and the surface of the ground. Experimental equipments owned by the French Electricity Company and by the Atomic Energy Commission, have allowed to photograph lightnings and to measure certain physical characteristics (Intensity variable between 25 to 100 kA, voltage variable between 20 to 1 000 kV). The frequency of storms was learned: the isokeraunic level, in France, is about 20, meaning that thunder is heard twenty days during one year. Man may be stricken by thunder by direct hit, by sudden bursting, by earth current, or through various conductors. The electric charge which reached him may go to the earth directly by contact with the ground or may dissipate in the air through a bony promontory (elbow). The total number of victims, "wounded" or deceased, is not now known by statistics. Death comes by insulation breakdown of one of several anatomic cephalic formations: skull, meninx, brain. Many various lesions may happen in survivors: loss of consciousness, more or less long, sensorial or motion deficiencies. All these signs are momentary and generally reversible. Besides one may observe much more intense lesions on the skin: burns and, over all, characteristic aborescence (skin effect by high frequency current). The heart is protected, contrarily to what happens with industrial electrocution. The curative treatment is merely symptomatic : reanimation, surgery for burns or associated traumatic lesions. A prevention is researched to help the lonely man, in the country or in the mountains in the houses (lightning conductor, Faraday cage), in vehicles (aircraft, cars, ships). The mysterious and unforseeable character of lightning still stays, leaving a door opened for numerous

  18. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  19. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Laboratory; Chichester, Heather [Idaho National Laboratory; Johns, Jesse [Texas A& M University; Teague, Melissa [Idaho National Laboratory; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant

  20. Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The April 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains a painful memory in the lives of the hundreds of thousands of people who were most affected by the accident. In addition to the emergency rescue workers who died, thousands of children contracted thyroid cancer, and thousands of other individuals will eventually die of other cancers caused by the release of radiation. Vast areas of cropland, forests, rivers and urban centres were contaminated by environmental fallout. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from these affected areas - forced to leave behind their homes, possessions, and livelihoods - and resettled elsewhere, in a traumatic outcome that has had long-lasting psychological and social impacts. The commemoration of the Chernobyl tragedy is taking place in many forums this month - in Minsk, in Kiev and in other locations. At the IAEA, it might be said that we have been responding to the accident and its consequences for twenty years, in a number of ways: first, through a variety of programmes designed to help mitigate the environmental and health consequences of the accident; second, by analyzing the lessons of what went wrong to allow such an accident to occur at all; and third, by working to prevent any such accident from occurring in the future. Building a strong and effective global nuclear safety regime is a central objective of our work. This requires effective international cooperation. The explosions that destroyed the Unit 4 reactor core, and discharged its contents in a cloud of radionuclides, made painfully clear that the safety risks associated with nuclear and radiological activities extend beyond national borders. International cooperation on nuclear safety matters - sharing information, setting clear safety standards, assisting with safety upgrades, and reviewing operational performance - has therefore become a hallmark of IAEA activity, particularly at a time when we are witnessing an expansion of

  1. 儿童脑干胶质瘤生存时间的相关因素分析%Analysis of factors related to the survival time of the children with brainstem glioma

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙涛; 万伟庆; 吴震; 张俊廷; 张力伟

    2012-01-01

    目的 探讨影响儿童脑干胶质瘤生存时间的相关因素.方法 回顾性分析33例儿童脑干胶质瘤病人的临床资料.应用Kaplan-Meier法进行单因素分析,分析临床、影像和病理组织学因素对生存时间的影响.差异的显著性检验应用Log-rank 法,对单因素分析中P<0.05者进行COX回归多因素模型分析.结果 单因素分析显示影响生存时间的因素包括:发病年龄、发病到就诊时间、入院时KPS评分、肿瘤部位、病理级别、肿瘤生长类型以及治疗方法(均P<0.05).多因素分析显示:病人的发病到就诊时间(P=0.034)及肿瘤生长类型(P=0.046)对生存时间的影响更为显著.结论 儿童脑干胶质瘤的生存时间与多种因素有关,手术切除可延长生存时间.%Objective To investigate the related factors affecting the survival time of children with brainstem glioma. Methods Clinical data of 33 brainstem glioma children were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate analysis was conducted to determine the influence of clinical, imaging and histopathological factors on survival time of brainstem glioma children by using Kaplan-Meier method. The differences between groups were analyzed by a log-rank test. The factors (P < 0.05) in univariate analysis were analyzed by COX proportional hazards regression model in the multivariate analysis. Results Univariate analysis results showed that the following variables including age of onset, time from onset of illness to visiting, karnofsky performance scale (KPS) score at admission, tumor site, pathological grade, growth pattern and therapeutic method were associated with survival time (all P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that time from onset of illness to visiting and growth pattern were more significantly associated with survival time (P = 0.034, 0.046). Conclusions The survival time of brainstem glioma children is associated with many factors, and surgical resection can prolong survival time of the

  2. 二代改进型核电厂严重事故下一回路卸压时机敏感性研究%Sensitivity Analysis on Time of Reactor Coolant System Depressurization under Severe Accident for Generation II+ Nuclear Power Plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    种毅敏; 杨志义; 石雪垚; 张佳佳; 李春; 倪曼; 徐雨婷

    2015-01-01

    Reactor coolant system (RCS)depressurization is necessary measure for nuclear power plant to mitigate the severe accident,as well as a significant part of the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG).Difference may exist on the time of RCS depressurization in different NPPs.In this paper,based on MAAP4,the sensitivity analysis of time to implement RCS depressurization is performed.A typical integrated computer program,and different effects on mitigation of severe accident are compared.The simulation scenario is typical drill situation of generation II + NPPs,and conclusions can be reference for similar NPPs to implement severe accident management strategy.%一回路卸压是核电厂缓解严重事故的必要手段,也是严重事故管理导则(SAMG)的重要内容,国内核电厂严重事故管理中对一回路卸压的要求并不相同,本文基于典型二代改进型核电厂 SAMG 演练的场景,使用一体化计算程序 MAAP4,对一回路卸压时机进行敏感性分析,比较不同卸压时机对缓解严重事故效果的影响,所给出的结论可为相同类型核电厂制定严重事故管理策略时提供参考。

  3. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was preventable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

    2015-04-01

    On 11 March 2011, the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history triggered a large tsunami, which will probably be remembered from the dramatic live pictures in a country, which is possibly the most tsunami-prepared in the world. The earthquake and tsunami caused a major nuclear power plant (NPP) accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The accident was likely more severe than the 1979 Three Mile Island and less severe than the Chernobyl 1986 accidents. Yet, after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had hit the Madras Atomic Power Station there had been renewed interest in the resilience of NPPs to tsunamis. The 11 March 2011 tsunami hit the Onagawa, Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, and Tokai Dai-ni NPPs, all located approximately in a 230km stretch along the east coast of Honshu. The Onagawa NPP was the closest to the source and was hit by an approximately height of 13m tsunami, of the same height as the one that hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi. Even though the Onagawa site also subsided by 1m, the tsunami did not reach to the main critical facilities. As the International Atomic Energy Agency put it, the Onagawa NPP survived the event "remarkably undamaged." At Fukushima Dai-ichi, the three reactors in operation were shut down due to strong ground shaking. The earthquake damaged all offsite electric transmission facilities. Emergency diesel generators (EDGs) provided back up power and started cooling down the reactors. However, the tsunami flooded the facilities damaging 12 of its 13 EDGs and caused a blackout. Among the consequences were hydrogen explosions that released radioactive material in the environment. It is unfortunately clear that TEPCO and Japan's principal regulator Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) had failed in providing a professional hazard analysis for the plant, even though their last assessment had taken place only months before the accident. The main reasons are the following. One

  4. A protocol for storage and long-distance shipment of Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) eggs. 1. Effect of temperature, embryo age , and storage time on survival and quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The operational use of Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), genetic sexing strains in Sterile Insect Technique applications can be maximized by developing methods for effective shipment of eggs. This would enable a central production facility to maintain the relevant mother stocks and large colonies to supply eggs to satellite centers that would mass produce only males for irradiation and release. In order to achieve this, the survival of medfly embryos of different ages was assessed after storage at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 deg. C in water for different periods of time. Survival was affected by all 3 variables, i.e., embryo age, water temperature, and length of storage. Storage of embryos at any temperature for 120 h resulted in almost no survival. Controlling the age of the embryo at the time of the temperature treatment is crucial for the success of this procedure. Embryos collected between 0 to 12 h after oviposition and pre-incubated at 25 deg. C for 12 h provide a suitable 72 h window for shipment when maintained between 10 to 15 deg. C. Under these conditions, no significant reductions in survival during all the developmental stages were observed. (author)

  5. An analysis on the severe accident progression with operator recovery actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Severe accident progression for the station blackout and SBLOCA accident. • Analyses on APR1400 using MELCOR. • Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up. • Determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. • Insight for the operator recovery actions for the severe accident management. - Abstract: Analyses on the severe accident progressions for the station blackout (SBO) accident and small break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiated severe accident were performed for APR1400 by using MELCOR computer code. Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up using a depressurization system and safety injection pump were simulated in parallel with a simulation of the severe accident progression. Sensitivity studies on the operator actions were performed to investigate the changes in the timing of the reactor vessel failure and to determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. Sensitivity analyses on the effect of major modeling parameters were performed additionally to quantify the uncertainties in timing. It is found that the operator has about 2 h for the recovery actions after the indication of core damage by the signal of core exit thermocouple (CET) for the SBLOCA initiated severe accident, while the operator has to take immediate actions after the indication of core damage by CET for the SBO accident

  6. An analysis on the severe accident progression with operator recovery actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Song, J.H., E-mail: dosa@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, T.W.; Kim, D.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • Severe accident progression for the station blackout and SBLOCA accident. • Analyses on APR1400 using MELCOR. • Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up. • Determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. • Insight for the operator recovery actions for the severe accident management. - Abstract: Analyses on the severe accident progressions for the station blackout (SBO) accident and small break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiated severe accident were performed for APR1400 by using MELCOR computer code. Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up using a depressurization system and safety injection pump were simulated in parallel with a simulation of the severe accident progression. Sensitivity studies on the operator actions were performed to investigate the changes in the timing of the reactor vessel failure and to determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. Sensitivity analyses on the effect of major modeling parameters were performed additionally to quantify the uncertainties in timing. It is found that the operator has about 2 h for the recovery actions after the indication of core damage by the signal of core exit thermocouple (CET) for the SBLOCA initiated severe accident, while the operator has to take immediate actions after the indication of core damage by CET for the SBO accident.

  7. Proposal for computer investigation of LMFBR core meltdown accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The environmental consequences of an LMFBR accident involving breach of containment are so severe that such accidents must not be allowed to happen. Present methods for analyzing hypothetical core disruptive accidents like a loss of flow with failure to scram cannot show conclusively that such accidents do not lead to a rupture of the pressure vessel. A major deficiency of present methods is their inability to follow large motions of a molten LMFBR core. Such motions may lead to a secondary supercritical configuration with a subsequent energy release that is sufficient to rupture the pressure vessel. The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory proposes to develop a computer program for describing the dynamics of hypothetical accidents. This computer program will utilize implicit Eulerian fluid dynamics methods coupled with a time-dependent transport theory description of the neutronic behavior. This program will be capable of following core motions until a stable coolable configuration is reached. Survey calculations of reactor accidents with a variety of initiating events will be performed for reactors under current design to assess the safety of such reactors

  8. The Chernobyl accident - did it affect pregnancy outcomes in Norway?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The outcome of pregnancies in the county of Soer-Troendelag in Norway, during the 27 months preceding and 21 months after the Chernobyl accident has been analysed on the basis of time of conception. The analysis showed a significant decrease in the number of conceptions during the three months immediately after the accident (April - June 1986). This finding can be interpreted to mean fewer ''planned'' conceptions. The Chernobyl accident did not seem to have had any impact on the proportion of conceptions ending as spontaneous abortions or ectopic pregnancies. There was a significant drop in the proportion of pregnancies ending as induced abortions during the year after the accident compared with the year before. However, due to some variation during this year, it is difficult to draw any definite conclusions concerning the impact of the accident on induced abortions in this county. The proportion of pregnancies ending as births increased significantly during the year after the Chernobyl accident compared with the year before. 22 refs., 1 tab

  9. The computer aided education and training system for accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under severe accident conditions of a nuclear power plant, plant operators and technical support center (TSC) staffs will be under a amount of stress. Therefore, those individuals responsible for managing the plant should promote their understanding about the accident management and operations. Moreover, it is also important to train in ordinary times, so that they can carry out accident management operations effectively on severe accidents. Therefore, the education and training system which works on personal computers was developed by Japanese BWR group (Tokyo Electric Power Co.,Inc., Tohoku Electric Power Co. ,Inc., Chubu Electric Power Co. ,Inc., Hokuriku Electric Power Co.,Inc., Chugoku Electric Power Co.,Inc., Japan Atomic Power Co.,Inc.), and Hitachi, Ltd. The education and training system is composed of two systems. One is computer aided instruction (CAI) education system and the other is education and training system with a computer simulation. Both systems are designed to execute on MS-Windows(R) platform of personal computers. These systems provide plant operators and technical support center staffs with an effective education and training tool for accident management. TEPCO used the simulation system for the emergency exercise assuming the occurrence of hypothetical severe accident, and have performed an effective exercise in March, 2000. (author)

  10. Psychological distress and post-traumatic symptoms following occupational accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

    2013-12-01

    Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

  11. Motorcycle Fatal Accidents in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Seyyed Nozadi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: All over the world motorcycle accident are one of the major causes of road death and injury. This study aimed to determine the pattern of Motorcycle Fatal Accidents in Mashhad-Iran. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out in 2006 to analyze the epidemiological pattern of the mo­tor­cycle accident in Mashhad, North-Eastern Iran. Three hundred fifty cases of motorcycle accidents were included. Data gath­ering tool was a standard questionnaire. The compiled data were analyzed using SPSS11 and χ 2 test. The significance level was considered 0.05 in all statistical tests.Results: In the time span of the study, 350 cases of motorcycle accident occurred, most of which happened at 8pm to 12pm. In 119 cases, the motorcyclist was the blameful rider. Generally, 84.2% of the motorcycle riders did not have safety hel­mets. About two third of blameful motorcycle riders (63.1% were less than 25 years old. The major cause of the accidents (55.1% was due to neglecting the Yield Right of Way. Motorcycle riders endanger pedestrian, other drivers, passengers and their own life.Conclusion: Paying attention to cultural and instructional issues of correct motorcycle riding and performing appropriate monitor­ing in traffic and transportation system such as honoring our and others safety and setting limitations on using this vehi­cle by the youth is of great importance. .

  12. Revised accident source terms for light-water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soffer, L. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1995-02-01

    This paper presents revised accident source terms for light-water reactors incorporating the severe accident research insights gained in this area over the last 15 years. Current LWR reactor accident source terms used for licensing date from 1962 and are contained in Regulatory Guides 1.3 and 1.4. These specify that 100% of the core inventory of noble gases and 25% of the iodine fission products are assumed to be instantaneously available for release from the containment. The chemical form of the iodine fission products is also assumed to be predominantly elemental iodine. These assumptions have strongly affected present nuclear air cleaning requirements by emphasizing rapid actuation of spray systems and filtration systems optimized to retain elemental iodine. A proposed revision of reactor accident source terms and some im implications for nuclear air cleaning requirements was presented at the 22nd DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference. A draft report was issued by the NRC for comment in July 1992. Extensive comments were received, with the most significant comments involving (a) release fractions for both volatile and non-volatile species in the early in-vessel release phase, (b) gap release fractions of the noble gases, iodine and cesium, and (c) the timing and duration for the release phases. The final source term report is expected to be issued in late 1994. Although the revised source terms are intended primarily for future plants, current nuclear power plants may request use of revised accident source term insights as well in licensing. This paper emphasizes additional information obtained since the 22nd Conference, including studies on fission product removal mechanisms, results obtained from improved severe accident code calculations and resolution of major comments, and their impact upon the revised accident source terms. Revised accident source terms for both BWRS and PWRS are presented.

  13. Chernobyl accident: lessons learned for radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The long-term nature of the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which was a major technological catastrophe in terms of its scope and complexity and created humanitarian, environmental, social, economic and health consequences. After more than twenty years we can conclude that Chernobyl accident was requested the big efforts of the national governments and international organisations for improvement new approaches to radiation safety, radiation protection, health care, emergency preparedness and response. During first years after accident some response actions did more harm than good because not based on international radiation protection principles, based on criteria developed during emergency and associated with mistrust, emotions, political pressure. As a result was inappropriate government reaction: unjustified relocation and decontamination - loss jobs, homes, billions of $ cost; unjustified compensation (high portion of annual national budgets). Non-radiological (e.g. detrimental economic, social and psychological) consequences was worse than direct radiological consequences. Psychological effects do not correlate with real exposure but with perception of risk. The affected people believe in threat to their health, doubt what has been reported about accident and resulted doses, got modification in life style, have somatic complains, got substance abuse (alcohol, tranquilizers, sleeping pills). The lack of accurate information and misperception of real radiation risk is believed also to have lead to change in behavior of some affected people. Possible long-term health effect due to the accidental exposure remains an issue. There is no doubt that excess thyroid cancer incidence results from exposure to radioactive iodines, mainly by iodine-131. Radiation induced thyroid cancer could easily be prevented by timely warning, effective thyroid blocking, timely restriction of consumption for contaminated food. The

  14. Finite time survival probability for a discrete time risk model with delayed claims%具有延迟索赔的离散时间更新风险模型的有限时间生存概率

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷明娥; 那明霞

    2014-01-01

    经典的复合二项风险模型是精算文献中研究的最深入的一类离散时间更新过程,模型的独立增量性使得数学处理极为方便,但是与保险的实际不相符合。近年来,在索赔剩余过程中引入某种相依结构受到越来越多的关注。研究了一类索赔时间相依的离散时间风险模型,模型中假设每次主索赔一定可以引起一类副索赔,同时根据索赔额的大小引起另一类副索赔,并且副索赔有可能延迟发生。通过引入3个辅助模型,研究了有限时间生存概率的母函数,并且对任意初始资本得到了有限时间内生存概率的递推表达式。%The classical compound Binomial risk model is discrete time renewal process which has been studied deeply in actuarial literature .Although the independent increment property assumed in the model is convenient to mathematical treatment ,it is not consistent with insurance actual .Re-cently the risk processes with dependence structure have received more and more attention .In this pa-per a discrete time model with time-correlated claims is studied .It is assumed that every main claim can induce one kind of by-claim with certainty and another kind of by-claim according to the claim a-mount .The by-claims can be delayed to the next period .By introducing three auxiliary models ,we in-vestigate the generating function for the finite time survival probability and a recursive solution is al-so obtained for arbitrary initial surplus .

  15. Patterns of presentation of abused children to the accident and emergency department.

    OpenAIRE

    Olney, D B

    1988-01-01

    A search of accident and emergency department records showed that 61% of 85 children registered as being physically or sexually abused by the Department of Community Paediatrics at St James's University Hospital, Leeds, England, were found to have visited the accident and emergency department an average of 2.9 times before the diagnosis was made. Fifty-two per cent of the attendances were because of problems other than injuries. Staff of accident and emergency departments should be aware that...

  16. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  17. Nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, C S

    1989-09-01

    Twenty-two nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies utilizing the fast-pulse Health Physics Research Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been conducted since 1965. These studies have provided a total of 62 different organizations a forum for discussion of criticality accident dosimetry, an opportunity to test their neutron and gamma-ray dosimetry systems under a variety of simulated criticality accident conditions, and the experience of comparing results with reference dose values as well as with the measured results obtained by others making measurements under identical conditions. Sixty-nine nuclear accidents (27 with unmoderated neutron energy spectra and 42 with eight different shielded spectra) have been simulated in the studies. Neutron doses were in the 0.2-8.5 Gy range and gamma doses in the 0.1-2.0 Gy range. A total of 2,289 dose measurements (1,311 neutron, 978 gamma) were made during the intercomparisons. The primary methods of neutron dosimetry were activation foils, thermoluminescent dosimeters, and blood sodium activation. The main methods of gamma dose measurement were thermoluminescent dosimeters, radiophotoluminescent glass, and film. About 68% of the neutron measurements met the accuracy guidelines (+/- 25%) and about 52% of the gamma measurements met the accuracy criterion (+/- 20%) for accident dosimetry. PMID:2777549

  18. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  19. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs

  20. Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

  1. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (I: Major inducement events of the accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen drilling in poor tight gas sandstone should be safe because of very low gas production. But a serious accident of fire blowout occurred during nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1. This is the first nitrogen drilling accident in China, which was beyond people's knowledge about the safety of nitrogen drilling and brought negative effects on the development of gas drilling technology still in start-up phase and resulted in dramatic reduction in application of gas drilling. In order to form a correct understanding, the accident was systematically analyzed, the major events resulting in this accident were inferred. It is discovered for the first time that violent ejection of rock clasts and natural gas occurred due to the sudden burst of downhole rock when the fractured tight gas zone was penetrated during nitrogen drilling, which has been named as “rock burst and blowout by gas bomb”, short for “rock burst”. Then all the induced events related to the rock burst are as following: upthrust force on drilling string from rock burst, bridging-off formed and destructed repeatedly at bit and centralizer, and so on. However, the most direct important event of the accident turns out to be the blockage in the blooie pipe from rock burst clasts and the resulted high pressure at the wellhead. The high pressure at the wellhead causes the blooie pipe to crack and trigged blowout and deflagration of natural gas, which is the direct presentation of the accident.

  2. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (II: Restoration of the accident process and lessons learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available All the important events of the accident of nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1 have been speculated and analyzed in the paper I. In this paper II, based on the investigating information, the well log data and some calculating and simulating results, according to the analysis method of the fault tree of safe engineering, the every possible compositions, their possibilities and time schedule of the events of the accident of Well Qionglai 1 have been analyzed, the implications of the logging data have been revealed, the process of the accident of Well Qionglai 1 has been restored. Some important understandings have been obtained: the objective causes of the accident is the rock burst and the induced events form rock burst, the subjective cause of the accident is that the blooie pipe could not bear the flow burden of the clasts from rock burst and was blocked by the clasts. The blocking of blooie pipe caused high pressure in wellhead, the high pressure made the blooie pipe burst, natural gas came out and flared fire. This paper also thinks that the rock burst in gas drilling in fractured tight sandstone gas zone is objective and not avoidable, but the accidents induced from rock burst can be avoidable by improving the performance of the blooie pipe, wellhead assemblies and drilling tool accessories aiming at the downhole rock burst.

  3. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  4. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  5. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2014-05-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  6. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2013-03-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  7. Nuclear law and radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear activities in Brazil, and particularly the radiological accident of Goiania, are examined in the light of the environmental and nuclear laws of Brazil and the issue of responsibility. The absence of legislation covering radioactive wastes as well as the restrictions on Brazilian States to issue regulations covering nuclear activities are reviewed. The radiological accident and its consequences, including the protection and compensation of the victims, the responsibility of the shareholders of the Instituto Goiano de Radioterapia, operator of the radioactive source, the provisional storage and the final disposal at Abadia de Goias of the radioactive waste generated by the accident are reviewed. Finally, nuclear responsibility, the inapplicability of the Law 6453/77 which deals with nuclear damages, and the state liability regime are analysed in accordance with the principles of the Brazilian Federal Constitution. (author)

  8. Internal Accident Report on EDH

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Department

    2006-01-01

    The A2 Safety Code requires that, the Internal Accident Report form must be filled in by the person concerned or any witness to ensure that all the relevant services are informed. Please note that an electronic version of this form has been elaborated in collaboration with SC-IE, HR-OPS-OP and IT-AIS. Whenever possible, the electronic form shall be used. The relative icon is available on the EDH Desktop, Other tasks page, under the Safety heading, or directly here: https://edh.cern.ch/Document/Accident/. If you have any questions, please contact the SC Secretariat, tel. 75097 Please notice that the Internal Accident Report is an integral part of the Safety Code A2 and does not replace the HS50.

  9. Fukushima accident study using MELCOR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    The accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station stunned the world as the sequences played out over severals days and videos of hydrogen explosions were televised as they took place.The accidents all resulted in severe damage to the reactor cores and releases of radioactivity to the environment despite heroic measures had taken by the operating personnel.The following paper provides some background into the development of these accidents and their root causes,chief among them,the prolonged station blackout conditions that isolated the reactors from their ultimate heat sink — the ocean.The interpretations given in this paper are summarized from a recently completed report funded by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

  10. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    for a company with 3.600 employees was estimated to approximately US$ 682.000. The paper includes an introduction regarding accident cost analysis in companies, a presentation of the SACA project methodology and the SACA method itself, a short overview of some of the results of the SACA project and a conclusion......The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...... occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA...

  11. Road characteristics and bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, P; Björnstig, U; Bygren, L O

    1996-12-01

    In Umeå, Sweden, defects in the physical road surface contributed to nearly half of the single bicycle accidents. The total social cost of these injuries to people amount to at least SEK 20 million (SEK 60,000 or about USD 8,500 per accident), which corresponds to the estimated loss of "eight life equivalents a year". Improved winter maintenance seems to have the greatest injury prevention potential and would probably reduce the number of injuries considerably, whereas improved road quality and modification of kerbs would reduce the most severe injuries. A local traffic safety program should try to prevent road accidents instead of handling the consequences of them. In accordance with Parliament decisions on traffic we would like to see increased investment in measures favoring bicycle traffic, where cycling is seen as a solution, not as a problem.

  12. Hindsight Bias in Cause Analysis of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Atsuo Murata; Yasunari Matsushita

    2014-01-01

    It is suggested that hindsight becomes an obstacle to the objective investigation of an accident, and that the proper countermeasures for the prevention of such an accident is impossible if we view the accident with hindsight. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to prevent hindsight from occurring so that hindsight does not hinder objective and proper measures to be taken and this does not lead to a serious accident. In this study, a basic phenomenon potentially related to accidents, that is, hindsight was taken up, and an attempt was made to explore the phenomenon in order to get basically insights into the prevention of accidents caused by such a cognitive bias.

  13. The child accident repeater: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J G

    1980-04-01

    The child accident repeater is defined as one who has at least three accidents that come to medical attention within a year. The accident situation has features in common with those of the child who has a single accident through simple "bad luck", but other factors predispose him to repeated injury. In the child who has a susceptible personality, a tendency for accident repetition may be due to a breakdown in adjustment to a stressful environment. Prevention of repeat accidents should involve the usual measures considered appropriate for all children as well as an attempt to provide treatment of significant maladjustment and modification of a stressful environment.

  14. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

  15. JCO criticality accident termination operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 2001, we summarized the circumstances surrounding termination of the JCO criticality accident based on testimony in the Mito District Court on December 17, 2001. JCO was the company for uranium fuels production in Japan. That document was assembled based on actual testimony in the belief that a description of the work involved in termination of the accident would be useful in some way for preventing nuclear disasters in the future. The description focuses on the witness' own behavior, and what he saw and heard, and thus is written from the perspective of action by one individual. This was done simply because it was easier for the witness to write down his memories as he remembers them. Description of the activities of other organizations and people is provided only as necessary, to ensure that consistency in the descriptive approach is not lost. The essentials of this report were rewritten as a third-person objective description in the summary of the report by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ). Since then, comments have been received from sources such as former members of the Nuclear Safety Commission (Dr. Kenji Sumita and Dr. Akira Kanagawa), concerned parties from the former Science and Technology Agency, and reports from the JCO Criticality Accident Investigation Committee of the AESJ, and thus this report was rewritten to correct incorrect information, and add material where that was felt to be necessary. This year is the tenth year of the JCO criticality accident. To mark this occasion we have decided to translate the record of what occurred at the accident site into English so that more people can draw lessons from this accident. This report is an English version of JAEA-Technology 2009-073. (author)

  16. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (pengine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s).

  17. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (pturbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s). PMID:26590507

  18. Lockout/tagout accident investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, James R

    2014-08-01

    When I was in boot camp, our drill instructor told us that assume makes an ass out of u and me. It was true then, and it is true today. In this instance, assumptions came into play several times, both by the worker and by the companies involved. The good news is that it did not result in a fatality, but that does not relieve the pain and suffering that the employee had to endure. This same type of scenario is likely repeated at many job sites throughout the United States. Multiple contractors, dozens--maybe hundreds--of workers, power system equipment and devices; all of these have to be taken into consideration when performing maintenance activities. It can become a blur. People are people, and people make mistakes. That is why we have OSHA regulations, NFPA 70E, company procedures, policies, etc. Most if not all of us have either been involved in accidents or know people who have been. It's not like it's a secret that people make mistakes, but talk to some and they seem to think only others have that failing. Safety is not about just any one procedure or rule. It's about slowing down, making a plan, and executing that plan. There are plenty of tools available to help us: policies, procedures, codes, standards, federal regulations, and state and local laws. I am not about to say that the worker involved in this incident was not taking safety seriously, but he failed to follow some fundamental safety rules like test-before-touch. If he had taken just that one step, there would be nothing to write about. PMID:25188988

  19. RETRAC, Reactor Core Accident Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1 - Description of program or function: The RETRAC code uses a set of coupled neutron point-kinetics equations and thermal-hydraulic conservation laws to simulate nuclear reactor core behaviour under transient or accident conditions. The reactor core is represented by single equivalent unit cells composed of three regions: fuel, clad, and moderator (coolant). 2 - Method of solution: At each time step, core thermal power is calculated by solving a set of six delayed neutron group kinetics equations with adjusted reactivity feedbacks. The numerical resolution is performed by using the Runge-Kutta-Gill method. The externally inserted reactivity is specified in the input data file, whereas Doppler, fuel, clad, and water temperature reactivity feedbacks are calculated by the code itself. Core cooling is treated as a homogeneous one-dimensional fluid flow through a representative unit cell composed of three successive regions: fuel, clad, and coolant. Several flow regime models are considered for both single- and two-phase states of the coolant. The conservation laws are solved by the method of characteristics coupled with an implicit finite difference scheme to ensure stability and convergence of the numerical algorithm. Validation tests of the RETRAC code were performed by using the International Atomic Energy Agency 10-MW benchmark cores, for protected transients. Further assessment studies are in progress using experimental data. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The RETRAC code uses steady-state thermal-hydraulic correlations. Their use is not always justified, but it seems to be quite useful in quasi-steady cases such as as loss-of-flow transients

  20. Investigation into information flow during the accident at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report was prepared in response to a request from NRC Chairman Ahearne that directed the Office of Inspection and Enforcement to resume its investigation of information flow during the accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) that occurred on March 28, 1979. This investigation was resumed on March 21, 1980. The transfer of information among individuals, agencies, and personnel from Metropolitan Edison was analyzed to ascertain what knowledge was held by various individuals of the specific events, parameters, and systems during the accident at TMI. Maximum use was made of existing records, and additional interviews were conducted to clarify areas that had not been pursued during earlier investigations. Although the passage of time between the accident and post-accident interviews hampered precise recollections of events and circumstances, the investigation revealed that information was not intentionally withheld during the accident and that the system for effective transfer of information was inadequate during the accident

  1. Technology, safety and costs of decommissioning reference light water reactors following postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The estimated costs for post-accident cleanup at the reference BWR (developed previously in NUREG/CR-2601, Technology, Safety and Costs of Decommissioning Reference Light Water Reactors Following Postulated Accidents) are updated to January 1989 dollars in this report. A simple formula for escalating post-accident cleanup costs is also presented. Accident cleanup following the most severe accident described in NUREG/CR-2601 (i.e., the Scenario 3 accident) is estimated to cost from $1.22 to 1.44 billion, in 1989 dollars, for assumed escalation rates of 4% or 8% in the years following 1989. The time to accomplish cleanup remained unchanged from the 8.3 years originally estimated. No reanalysis of current information on the technical aspects of TMI-2 cleanup has been performed. Only the cost of inflation has been evaluated since the original PNL analysis was completed. 32 refs., 12 tabs

  2. Using modular neural networks to monitor accident conditions in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  3. Implications for accident management of adding water to a degrading reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report evaluates both the positive and negative consequences of adding water to a degraded reactor core during a severe accident. The evaluation discusses the earliest possible stage at which an accident can be terminated and how plant personnel can best respond to undesired results. Specifically discussed are (a) the potential for plant personnel to add water for a range of severe accidents, (b) the time available for plant personnel to act, (c) possible plant responses to water added during the various stages of core degradation, (d) plant instrumentation available to understand the core condition and (e) the expected response of the instrumentation during the various stages of severe accidents

  4. Implications for accident management of adding water to a degrading reactor core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuan, P.; Hanson, D.J.; Pafford, D.J.; Quick, K.S.; Witt, R.J. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1994-02-01

    This report evaluates both the positive and negative consequences of adding water to a degraded reactor core during a severe accident. The evaluation discusses the earliest possible stage at which an accident can be terminated and how plant personnel can best respond to undesired results. Specifically discussed are (a) the potential for plant personnel to add water for a range of severe accidents, (b) the time available for plant personnel to act, (c) possible plant responses to water added during the various stages of core degradation, (d) plant instrumentation available to understand the core condition and (e) the expected response of the instrumentation during the various stages of severe accidents.

  5. Surviving death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstroem, Anna

    2013-01-01

    by another bank to which bankers needed to adapt. Even in the acquiring organization, the legacy organizational identity continued to play a significant role. The paper contributes to the important and timely emergence of theory on legacy organizational identity by showing how members of a dead organization......Organizations start, develop, and mature. Much research is done to learn about organizations’ identities during such developments. But organizations also decline and die and less research is conducted to understand these phases and especially how the organization’s identity is formed in and after...... such phases. The aim of this paper is to explore how an organization’s identity is re-constructed after organizational death. Based on interviews with members of a bankrupted bank who narrate their bankruptcy experiences, the paper explores how legacy organizational identity is constructed after...

  6. Study on Latency Time of corruption based on Survival Analysis%基于生存分析的腐败潜伏时间研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    乐云; 张兵; 关贤军

    2013-01-01

    Corruption is serious in construction field, the problem of corruption has caused a great concern for society. The article divided corruption into engineering corruption, real estate corruption and complex corruption. Finding that real estate corruption is the maximum amount of the three types, engineering corruption is the most important forms corruption, corruption latency of the three types of is longer than 5-year and survival rates greater than 50%, engineering corruption survival rate is relatively lower the other two categories .%工程建设领域腐败现象丛生,腐败问题引起了全社会的高度关注.文章将工程领域腐败分为工程腐败、房地产腐败和复合腐败三类,发现三类中房地产腐败的腐败金额最高,工程腐败是当前工程建设领域最主要的腐败形式,在腐败潜伏时间方面,三个类型的潜伏时间都较长,大于5年的生存率均大于50%,工程腐败生存率相对其他两类较低.

  7. Quantifying the Influence of Social Characteristics on Accident and Injuries Risk: A Comparative Study Between Motorcyclists and Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Olesen, Morten N.; Hels, Tove

    2011-01-01

    as the control group. The available data for the regression consisted of accident and injury data for motorcyclists and car owners in the period of interest as well the social and demographic parameters: age, gender, income, educational level and family status. The odds ratio calculations showed that the risk....... In this analysis we establish relationships between social and demographic characteristics and the probability of being in an accident and being injured in an accident. Logistic regression was applied to both motorcyclists and car drivers with the purpose of calculating the odds ratio with the car drivers...... of being in an accident or in an injury accident decreased with age, educational level, and income. Furthermore, the risk of being in an accident was 1.72 to 1.96 times higher and the risk of being in an injury accident was 1.38 to 1.44 times higher for men compared to women. For motorcyclists compared...

  8. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive 131I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of 131I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 106 person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 107 person-rem (2 x 105 Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs

  9. Industrial accidents in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 12 nuclear power plants in the Federal Republic of Germany with a total of 3678 employees, 25 notifiable company personnel accidents and 46 notifiable outside personnel accidents were reported for an 18-month period. (orig./HP)

  10. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  11. 49 CFR 229.17 - Accident reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... CFR part 225. ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 229.17 Section 229.17..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD LOCOMOTIVE SAFETY STANDARDS General § 229.17 Accident reports. (a)...

  12. How to reduce the number of accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Among the safety objectives that the Director-General has established for CERN in 2012 is a reduction in the number of workplace accidents.   The best way to prevent workplace accidents is to learn from experience. This is why any accident, fire, instance of pollution, or even a near-miss, should be reported using the EDH form that can be found here. All accident reports are followed up. The departments investigate all accidents that result in sick leave, as well as all the more common categories of accidents at CERN, essentially falls (slipping, falling on stairs, etc.), regardless of whether or not they lead to sick leave. By studying the accident causes that come to light in this way, it is possible to take preventive action to avoid such accidents in the future. If you have any questions, the HSE Unit will be happy to answer them. Contact us at safety-general@cern.ch. HSE Unit

  13. Survival After Relapse of Medulloblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koschmann, Carl; Bloom, Karina; Upadhyaya, Santhosh; Geyer, J Russell; Leary, Sarah E S

    2016-05-01

    Survival after recurrence of medulloblastoma has not been reported in an unselected cohort of patients in the contemporary era. We reviewed 55 patients diagnosed with medulloblastoma between 2000 and 2010, and treated at Seattle Children's Hospital to evaluate patterns of relapse treatment and survival. Fourteen of 47 patients (30%) over the age of 3 experienced recurrent or progressive medulloblastoma after standard therapy. The median time from diagnosis to recurrence was 18.0 months (range, 3.6 to 62.6 mo), and site of recurrence was metastatic in 86%. The median survival after relapse was 10.3 months (range, 1.3 to 80.5 mo); 3-year survival after relapse was 18%. There were trend associations between longer survival and having received additional chemotherapy (median survival 12.8 vs. 1.3 mo, P=0.16) and radiation therapy (15.4 vs. 5.9 mo, P=0.20). Isolated local relapse was significantly associated with shorter survival (1.3 vs. 12.8 mo, P=0.009). Recurrence of medulloblastoma is more likely to be metastatic than reported in previous eras. Within the limits of our small sample, our data suggest a potential survival benefit from retreatment with cytotoxic chemotherapy and radiation even in heavily pretreated patients. This report serves as a baseline against which to evaluate novel therapy combinations. PMID:26907655

  14. Detection and analysis of black spots with even small accident figures. Contribution to the Seminar on Short-term and Area-wide Evaluation of Safety Measures, Amsterdam, April 19-21, 1982, p. 75-84.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    In order to detect accident black spots we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures known to us, the various road locations are treated as isolated spots. With small accident figu

  15. Accident consequence assessment code development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the new computer code system, OSCAAR developed for off-site consequence assessment of a potential nuclear accident. OSCAAR consists of several modules which have modeling capabilities in atmospheric transport, foodchain transport, dosimetry, emergency response and radiological health effects. The major modules of the consequence assessment code are described, highlighting the validation and verification of the models. (author)

  16. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A collection of three papers about the fallout in Austria from the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident is given: 1. An overview of the research projects in Austria; 2. On the transfer into and uptake by crops and animal fodder; 3. On the reduction of cesium concentration in food. 18 tabs., 21 figs., 69 refs

  17. Trismus: An unusual presentation following road accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Trismus due to trauma usually follows road accidents leading to massive faciomaxillary injury. In the literature there is no report of a foreign body causing trismus following a road accident, this rare case is an exception. We present a case of isolated presentation of trismus following a road accident. This case report stresses on the thorough evaluation of patients presenting with trismus following a road accident.

  18. Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies

    OpenAIRE

    Ha-Duong, Minh; Journé, V.

    2014-01-01

    International audience Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject...

  19. [Risk factors for accidents during sports while serving in German armed forces].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundlach, N; Sammito, S; Böckelmann, I

    2012-03-01

    In the German Armed Forces sports activities should bring the benefits of good health and trained fitness which are the hallmarks of sportsmen. In order to achieve this aim it is important to avoid accidents which negate the benefit of sports. Until today there appear to be no studies in existence which demonstrate the risk factors of sports activities undertaken while in military service. Equivalent studies on civilian sport activities are scarcely comparable. To find out risk factors for accidents with any period of recovery we followed sports accidents while on duty in a German barracks with 4,300 soldiers over a two-year period. Additionally we asked about the time needed for recovery from each accident, parameters of lifestyle, the body mass index and the possibility of a nightshift before each accident. We examined a minimum of 410 accidents. We found associations between the accidents studied and particular risk factors, including doing sports more than two times a week, being active in a fitness or sports club, having the accident together with another sportsman and doing a nightshift before the day of the accident. Bad ground conditions contributed to a large number of accidents. A body mass index of 25 and higher had a significantly prolonged time for recovery. To avoid accidents, sport and ground conditions should be adapted to each other. In addition, overweight people are not only compromised for cardiovascular and neurological diseases but also have a higher risk of needing a prolonged time for recovery, thus it is important that overweight should be avoided and not only just be treated. PMID:22422284

  20. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in solicitations and contracts for construction that contain the clause at FAR 52.236-13, Accident Prevention....

  1. 48 CFR 1836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Accident prevention. 1836... 1836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 1852.223-70, Safety and Health, in lieu of FAR clause 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, and its Alternate I....

  2. 48 CFR 636.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 636... CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 636.513 Accident prevention. (a) In... contracting activities shall insert DOSAR 652.236-70, Accident Prevention, in lieu of FAR clause...

  3. A study on the core analysis methodology for SMART CEA ejection accident-I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zee, Sung Kyun; Lee, Chung Chan; Kim, Kyo Yoon; Cho, Byung Oh

    1999-04-01

    A methodology to analyze the fuel enthalpy is developed based on MASTER that is a time dependent 3 dimensional core analysis code. Using the proposed methodology, SMART CEA ejection accident is analyzed. Moreover, radiation doses are estimated at the exclusion area boundary and low population zone to confirm the criteria for the accident. (Author). 31 refs., 13 tabs., 18 figs.

  4. A study on the core analysis methodology for SMART CEA ejection accident-I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A methodology to analyze the fuel enthalpy is developed based on MASTER that is a time dependent 3 dimensional core analysis code. Using the proposed methodology, SMART CEA ejection accident is analyzed. Moreover, radiation doses are estimated at the exclusion area boundary and low population zone to confirm the criteria for the accident. (Author). 31 refs., 13 tabs., 18 figs

  5. Effects of the Beijing Subway Accident on Engineering Monitoring and Auditing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Ⅰ. Beijing Subway Line 10 Accident On March 28, 2007, six people were buried by a cave-in at Suzhoujie Station on Line 10 of the Beijing Subway. The fatalities were caused when the unit in charge of construction failed to implement a timely evacuation after a construction accident took place. (See Beijing Youth, April 1, 2007)

  6. Emergency response to a nuclear facility accident: preplanning and preparedness by off-site organizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction ('defence-in-depth' concept); accident assessment (prompt notification of off-site authorities); time factors associated with accidents leading to radiological releases off-site; radiological characteristics of releases; emergency communications; an adequate planning basis; training. (U.K.)

  7. Carbonaceous Survivability on Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, T. E.; Becker, Luann; Morrison, David (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    In order to gain knowledge about the potential contributions of comets and cosmic dust to the origin of life on Earth, we need to explore the survivability of their potential organic compounds on impact and the formation of secondary products that may have arisen from the chaotic events sustained by the carriers as they fell to Earth. We have performed a series of hypervelocity impact experiments using carbon-bearing impactors (diamond, graphite, kerogens, PAH crystals, and Murchison and Nogoya meteorites) into Al plate targets at velocities - 6 km/s. Estimated peak shock pressures probably did not exceed 120 GPa and peak shock temperatures were probably less than 4000 K for times of nano- to microsecs. Nominal crater dia. are less than one mm. The most significant results of these experiments are the preservation of the higher mass PAHs (e. g., pyrene relative to napthalene) and the formation of additional alkylated PAHs. We have also examined the residues of polystyrene projectiles impacted by a microparticle accelerator into targets at velocities up to 15 km/s. This talk will discuss the results of these experiments and their implications with respect to the survival of carbonaceous deliverables to early Earth. The prospects of survivability of organic molecules on "intact" capture of cosmic dust in space via soft: and hard cosmic dust collectors will also be discussed.

  8. Long-term haemodialysis survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heaf, James; Nielsen, Arne Høj; Hansen, Henrik Post

    2012-01-01

    Haemodialysis (HD) treatment for end-stage renal disease bears a poor prognosis. We present a case of a patient who, apart from two transplant periods lasting 8 months in all, was treated with conventional in-centre HD three times a week and who survived for 41 years. Patients should be aware...... that there is no theoretical upper limit for patient survival on HD....

  9. Independent accident investigation: a modern safety tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Historically, safety has been subjected to a fragmented approach. In the past, every department has had its own responsibility towards safety, focusing either on working conditions, internal safety, external safety, rescue and emergency, public order or security. They each issued policy documents, which in their time were leading statements for elaboration and regulation. They also addressed safety issues with tools of various nature, often specifically developed within their domain. Due to a series of major accidents and disasters, the focus of attention is shifting from complying with quantitative risk standards towards intervention in primary operational processes, coping with systemic deficiencies and a more integrated assessment of safety in its societal context. In The Netherlands recognition of the importance of independent investigations has led to an expansion of this philosophy from the transport sector to other sectors. The philosophy now covers transport, industry, defense, natural disaster, environment and health and other major occurrences such as explosions, fires, and collapse of buildings or structures. In 2003 a multi-sector covering law will establish an independent safety board in The Netherlands. At a European level, mandatory investigation agencies are recognized as indispensable safety instruments for aviation, railways and the maritime sector, for which EU Directives are in place or being progressed [Transport accident and incident investigation in the European Union, European Transport Safety Council, ISBN 90-76024-10-3, Brussel, 2001]. Due to a series of major events, attention has been drawn to the consequences of disasters, highlighting the involvement of rescue and emergency services. They also have become subjected to investigative efforts, which in return, puts demands on investigation methodology. This paper comments on an evolutionary development in safety thinking and of safety boards, highlighting some consequences for strategic

  10. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  11. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established Safety Culture, the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  12. Analysis of the radiation accident in El Salvador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 5 February 1989 at 2 a.m. local time in a cobalt-60 industrial irradiation facility, a series of events started leading to one of the most serious radiation accidents in this type of installation. It took place in Soyapango, a city situated 5 km from San Salvador, the capital of the Republic of El Salvador. In this accident, three workers were involved in the first event and a further four in the second. When the accident took place, the activity level was approximately 0.66 PBq (18,000 Ci). The source became blocked when being lowered to its safe position, where upon the technician responsible for the irradiator entered the chamber in breach of the few inadequate safety procedures, accompanied by two colleagues from an adjacent department; the three workers suffered acute radiation exposure, with the result that one of them died six-and-a-half months later, the second had both his legs amputated at mid-thigh, while the third recovered completely. This article describes the irradiator, outlines the causes of the accident and analyses the economic and social repercussions, with the aim of helping teams responsible for radiation protection and safety in industrial irradiation facilities to identify potentially hazardous circumstances and avoid accidents. (author)

  13. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 1/5. Description and Context of the Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents the key events that happened before, during and after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The description of the event in this volume is based on objective and factual information, and is presented largely in a chronological manner. The volume also describes the Fukushima Daiichi NPP site, the reactor designs, the structure of the nuclear industry in Japan and the Japanese regulatory framework at the time of the accident. It describes in detail the earthquake, the tsunami, the events at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP and the actions taken there and elsewhere for post-accident management up to December 2014. The description of the events is largely based on information provided by the Government of Japan to the IAEA; reports of the investigation committees established by the Japanese Government, the National Diet of Japan and TEPCO, including updates and supplements by TEPCO; the regulatory body; and the IAEA missions listed in Section 1.6.5. Information is provided without judgement and evaluation, unless it is necessary to clarify a certain occurrence assessments are contained in Technical Volumes 2 to 5

  14. Development of TRAIN for accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident in nuclear power plants. TRAIN (Training pRogram for AMP In NPP), developed for training control room staff and the technical group, is introduced in this paper. The TRAIN composes of phenomenological knowledge base (KB), accident sequence KB and accident management procedures with AM strategy control diagrams and information needs. This TRAIN might contribute to training them by obtaining phenomenological knowledge of severe accidents, understanding plant vulnerabilities, and solving problems under high stress. (author)

  15. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident: Update on compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the three years since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, the international community has gained perspective on the implementation of the Japanese nuclear liability regime, which reflects internationally accepted nuclear liability principles.1 Soon after the emergency, the operator of the damaged nuclear power plant, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), and public authorities in Japan established the basic procedures required to compensate victims for damage incurred due to the accident. Since March 2011, these procedures have been adapted to allow the processing of a large number of applications for compensation within a reasonable amount of time. (author)

  16. Post-accident gas generation from radiolysis of organic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents a methodology for estimating the gas generation rates resulting from radiolysis of organic materials in paints and electrical cable insulation inside a nuclear reactor containment building under design basis accident conditions. The methodology was based on absorption of the radiation energies from the post-accident fission products and the assumed gas yields of the irradiated materials. A sample calculation was made using conservative assumptions, plant-specific data of a nuclear power plant, and a radiation source term which took into account the time-dependent release and physico-chemical behavior of the fission products

  17. Radiological accidents: methodologies of radio nuclides dis incorporation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derived of the radioactive or nuclear material management, exists the risk that accidents can happen where people cases are presented with internal radioactive contamination, who will receive specialized medical care to accelerate the radioactive dis incorporation with the purpose of diminishing the absorbed dose and the associate biological effects. In this work treatments of radioactive dis incorporation were identified, in function of the radionuclide, radiation type, radioactive half life, biological half life, critical organ, ingestion duct and patient type. The factor time is decisive for the effectiveness of the selected treatment in the blockade stage (before the accident) or dis incorporation (after the accident); this factor is related with the radioactive and biological half lives. So to achieve dis incorporation efficiencies of more to 70%, the patient clinical treatment will begin before the first third of the biological half life of the radionuclide that generated the internal contamination. (Author)

  18. Modeling alternative clad behavior for accident tolerant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Department of Energy Fuel Cycle Research and Development program has a key goal of helping develop accident tolerant fuels (ATF) through investigating fuel and clad forms. In the current work thermochemical modeling and experiment are being used to assess fuel and clad alternatives. Cladding alternatives that have promise to improve fuel performance under accident conditions include the FeCrAl family of alloys and SiC-based composites. These are high strength and radiation resistant alloys and ceramics that have increased resistance to oxidation as compared to zirconium alloys. Accident modeling codes have indicated substantially increased time to failure and resulting effects. In the current work the thermochemical behavior of these materials are being assessed and the work reported here. (author)

  19. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    2000-03-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  20. Design of survivable networks

    CERN Document Server

    Stoer, Mechthild

    1992-01-01

    The problem of designing a cost-efficient network that survives the failure of one or more nodes or edges of the network is critical to modern telecommunications engineering. The method developed in this book is designed to solve such problems to optimality. In particular, a cutting plane approach is described, based on polyhedral combinatorics, that is ableto solve real-world problems of this type in short computation time. These results are of interest for practitioners in the area of communication network design. The book is addressed especially to the combinatorial optimization community, but also to those who want to learn polyhedral methods. In addition, interesting new research problemsare formulated.

  1. Zero Accident Vision based strategies in organisations: Innovative perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwetsloot, G.I.J.M.; Kines, P.; Wybo, J.L.; Ruotsala, R.; Drupsteen, L.; Bezemer, R.A.

    2017-01-01

    The Zero Accident Vision (ZAV) is a promising approach developed in industry, but not so much addressed by the safety science research community. In a discussion paper in Safety Science (2013) a call was made for more research in this area. Three years later is a good time to take status of developm

  2. 49 CFR 840.3 - Notification of railroad accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... hospital; (2) The evacuation of a passenger train; (3) Damage to a tank car or container resulting in...) Accidents involving joint operations must be reported by the railroad that controls the track and directs... is required by paragraph (a) or (b) of this section occurs in a remote area, the time limits...

  3. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry. PMID:22721539

  4. OSSA - An optimized approach to severe accident management: EPR application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    . This revised approach will incorporate a number of new features which will simplify and streamline the guidance material while ensuring comprehensive guidance for response to any severe accident. Examples of such features include : - Identification of severe accident challenges based on plant specific studies. - Revision of the split of responsibilities between operations and technical support center staff. - Fixed setpoint entry conditions, ensuring that the transition from emergency procedures takes place at a consistent core/fuel condition (regardless of scenario), and which fixes the time window available to attempt ultimate preventive measures. - A safety function concept for monitoring plant conditions (in the control room). - An integrated graphic-based diagnostic tool including entry condition, challenge prioritization, and exit condition monitoring to be used by the technical support team. This paper describes the basic features of OSSA, and project status. (au

  5. Flexible survival regression modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortese, Giuliana; Scheike, Thomas H; Martinussen, Torben

    2009-01-01

    Regression analysis of survival data, and more generally event history data, is typically based on Cox's regression model. We here review some recent methodology, focusing on the limitations of Cox's regression model. The key limitation is that the model is not well suited to represent time......-varying effects. We start by considering classical and also more recent goodness-of-fit procedures for the Cox model that will reveal when the Cox model does not capture important aspects of the data, such as time-varying effects. We present recent regression models that are able to deal with and describe...... such time-varying effects. The introduced models are all applied to data on breast cancer from the Norwegian cancer registry, and these analyses clearly reveal the shortcomings of Cox's regression model and the need for other supplementary analyses with models such as those we present here....

  6. Severe accident recriticality analyses (SARA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frid, W.; Højerup, C.F.; Lindholm, I.;

    2001-01-01

    Recriticality in a BWR during reflooding of an overheated partly degraded core, i.e. with relocated control rods, has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management strategies......, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: (1) the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst; (2) the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst; and (3) containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use...... the regulatory limits for fuel failure, but close to or above recently observed thresholds for fragmentation and dispersion of high burn-up fuel. The highest calculated quasi steady-state power following initial power excursion was in most cases approximately 20% of the nominal reactor power, according...

  7. Accident Simulation: Design and Results

    OpenAIRE

    Idasiak, Vincent; David, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    International audience The French legislation regulates the functioning of factories that may be dangerous towards their environment. This legislation imposes the creation of an Internal Operation Plan (P.O.I.) on the plant managers. Those plans describe the proceedings that have to be implemented in case of an accident. Within a framework involving our laboratory and a gas company we have designed a software to create, maintain and execute P.O.I.s . In this paper, in addition to the softw...

  8. Accident/Mishap Investigation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

    2007-01-01

    InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

  9. Airway accidents in critical care unit: A 3-year retrospective study in a Public Teaching Hospital of Eastern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugata Dasgupta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although tracheal tubes are essential devices to control and protect airway in a critical care unit (CCU, they are not free from complications. Aims: To document the incidence and nature of airway accidents in the CCU of a government teaching hospital in Eastern India. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all airway accidents in a 5-bedded (medical and surgical CCU. The number, types, timing, and severity of airway accidents were analyzed. Results: The total accident rate was 19 in 233 intubated and/or tracheostomized patients over 1657 tube days (TDs during 3 years. Fourteen occurred in 232 endotracheally intubated patients over 1075 endotracheal tube (ETT days, and five occurred in 44 tracheostomized patients over 580 tracheostomy TDs. Fifteen accidents were due to blocked tubes. Rest four were unplanned extubations (UEs, all being accidental extubations. All blockages occurred during night shifts and all UEs during day shifts. Five accidents were mild, the rest moderate. No major accident led to cardiorespiratory arrest or death. All blockages occurred after 7th day of intubation. The outcome of accidents were more favorable in tracheostomy group compared to ETT group (P = 0.001. Conclusions: The prevalence of airway accidents was 8.2 accidents per 100 patients. Blockages were the most common accidents followed by UEs. Ten out of the 15 blockages and all 4 UEs were in endotracheally intubated patients. Tracheostomized patients had 5 blockages and no UEs.

  10. Feedback from practical experience with large sodium fire accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper reviews the important feedback from the practical experience from two large sodium fires; the first at ALMERIA in Spain and the second in the Na laboratories at Bensberg, Germany. One of the most important sodium fire accidents was the ALMERIA spray fire accident. The origin of this accident was the repair of a valve when about 14 t of sodium was spilled in the plant room over a period of 1/2 hour. The event has been reported (IAEA/IWGFR meeting in 1988) and this presentation gives a short review of important feedback. The Almeria accident was one of the reasons that from that time spray fires had to be taken into account in the safety analyses of nuclear power plants. Due to the fact that spray fire codes were not available in a sufficiently validated state, safety analyses were provisionally based on the feedback from sodium fire tests and also from the Almeria accident itself. The behaviour of spray fires showed that severe destruction, up to melting of metallic structures may occur, but even with a large spray fire is limited roughly within the spray fire zone itself. This could be subsequently be predicted by codes like NABRAND in Germany and FEUMIX in France. Almeria accident has accelerated R and D and code development with respect to spray fires. As example for a code validation some figures are given for the NABRAND code. Another large sodium fire accident happened in 1992 in the test facility at Bensberg in Germany (ILONA). This accident occurred during preheating of a sodium filled vessel which was provisionally installed in the basement of the ILONA test facility at Bensberg. Due to failure of a pressure relief valve the pressure in the vessel increased. As a consequence the plug in a dip tube for draining the vessel failed and about 4,5 t of sodium leaked slowly from the vessel. The plant room was not cladded with steel liners or collecting pans (it was not designed for permanent sodium plant operation). So leaking sodium came directly in

  11. Accident analysis and DOE criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In analyzing the radiological consequences of major accidents at DOE facilities one finds that many facilities fall so far below the limits of DOE Order 6430 that compliance is easily demonstrated by simple analysis. For those cases where the amount of radioactive material and the dispersive energy available are enough for accident consequences to approach the limits, the models and assumptions used become critical. In some cases the models themselves are the difference between meeting the criteria or not meeting them. Further, in one case, we found that not only did the selection of models determine compliance but the selection of applicable criteria from different chapters of Order 6430 also made the difference. DOE has recognized the problem of different criteria in different chapters applying to one facility, and has proceeded to make changes for the sake of consistency. We have proposed to outline the specific steps needed in an accident analysis and suggest appropriate models, parameters, and assumptions. As a result we feed DOE siting and design criteria will be more fairly and consistently applied

  12. Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galstyan I.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

  13. 交通拥堵持续时间的非参数生存分析%Nonparametric survival analysis of traffic congestion duration time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨小宝; 周映雪

    2013-01-01

    The hazard-based traffic congestion duration model was established through survival analysis method. Based on the empirical traffic flow data on the Third Ring Road in Beijing, the traffic congestion duration of the Third Ring Road was estimated. The results show that 56% of the congestion durations of road segments on the Third Ring Road are not larger than four minutes. 90% of the congestion durations are not larger than 12 minutes. The hazard rate is less than 10% when the duration is larger than 12 minutes. The occurrence frequency of congestion on the outer ring is larger than the inner ring while the congestion duration on the inner ring is longer than the duration on the outer ring.%采用生存分析的非参数方法,建立基于风险的交通拥堵持续时间模型,根据北京市三环快速路的交通流数据,对三环道路交通拥堵持续时间进行了估计.结果表明:三环各路段的拥堵持续时间56%在4 min以内,90%在12 min之内;当拥堵持续时间超过12 min之后拥堵结束的可能性小于10%.外环比内环更容易发生拥堵,但当拥堵发生后内环的拥堵持续时间更长.

  14. Radiation exposure and human species survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information available from scientific sources without vested interests in the use of radiation is examined in the hope of elucidating the probable long-term effects on the human species of widespread radionuclide contamination. Distinguishing between problems of nuclear war, catastrophic accident in a nuclear industry, waste disposal, terrorist action, periodic accident situations and routine so-called normal pollution seems fruitless as these differ only in degree of pollution per time period. If there is indeed a species death process involved, the rate of deterioration will depend on the rate of pollution, but the result will be the same

  15. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  16. Thermal Hydraulic design parameters study for severe accidents using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Chang Hyun; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Chang, Keun Sun [Sunmoon University, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    To provide the information on severe accident progression is very important for advanced or new type of nuclear power plant (NPP) design. A parametric study, therefore, was performed to investigate the effect of thermal hydraulic design parameters on severe accident progression of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Nine parameters, which are considered important in NPP design or severe accident progression, were selected among the various thermal hydraulic design parameters. The backpropagation neural network (BPN) was used to determine parameters, which might more strongly affect the severe accident progression, among nine parameters. For training, different input patterns were generated by the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and then different target patterns that contain core uncovery time and vessel failure time were obtained for Young Gwang Nuclear (YGN) Units 3 and 4 using modular accident analysis program (MAAP) 3.0B code. Three different severe accident scenarios, such as two loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO), were considered in this analysis. Results indicated that design parameters related to refueling water storage tank (RWST), accumulator and steam generator (S/G) have more dominant effects on the progression of severe accidents investigated, compared to the other six parameters. 9 refs., 5 tabs. (Author)

  17. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

    1997-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  18. Review of accident analyses of RB experimental reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Milan P.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The RB reactor is a uranium fuel heavy water moderated critical assembly that has been put and kept in operation by the VTNCA Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, since April 1958. The first complete Safety Analysis Report of the RB reactor was prepared in 1961/62 yet, the first accident analysis had been made in late 1958 with the aim to examine a power transition and the total equivalent doses received by the staff during the reactivity accident that occurred on October 15, 1958. Since 1960, the RB reactor has been modified a few times. Beside the initial natural uranium metal fuel rods, new types of fuel (TVR-S types of Russian origin consisting of 2% enriched uranium metal and 80% enriched UO2 dispersed in aluminum matrix, have been available since 1962 and 1976 respectively. Modifications of the control and safety systems of the reactor were made occasionally. Special reactor cores were designed and constructed using all three types of fuel elements as well as the coupled fast-thermal ones. The Nuclear Safety Committee of the VINĆA Institute, an independent regulatory body, approved for usage all these modifications of the RB reactor on the basis of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Reports, which, beside proposed technical modifications and new regulation rules, included safety analyses of various possible accidents. A special attention was given (and a new safety methodology was proposed to thorough analyses of the design-based accidents related to the coupled fast-thermal cores that included central zones of the reactor filled by the fuel elements without any moderator. In this paper, an overview of some accidents, methodologies and computation tools used for the accident analyses of the RB reactor is given.

  19. Feasibility of Accident-Tolerant FCM Replacement Fuel for CANDUs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For enhanced accident tolerance, an innovative fuel concept, the fully ceramic microencapsulated (FCM) fuel based on the particle fuel concept of a gas-cooled reactor, is proposed to replace the conventional UO2 fuel bundle of existing and advanced CANDU reactors. In this study, the feasibility of replacing conventional UO2 fuel bundle with the accident-tolerant FCM fuel bundle has been assessed in view of core neutronics compatibility, accident-tolerance, and fuel cycle management. From the study, it was demonstrated that the FCM replacement fuel can provide resolution to CANDU generic issues by ensuring not only enhanced accident tolerance, but also an improved fuel cycle management. The accident-tolerant FCM fuel concept is proposed for replacing the conventional UO2 fuel bundle in CANDUs. The FCM fuel is shown to be neutronically compatible with existing core and the core residence time can be increased by more than 100 days. Accident-tolerance is remarkably enhanced by key features of the FCM fuel: it is refractory, thermo-mechanically and chemically stable, and fission product retentive. Less fuel feed and discharge obtained with the FCM fuel provide large savings in the spent fuel management burden charge and reduces the burden to the spent fuel storage facility in the long run. The smaller amount of minor actinides in the discharge bundles, together with the fission product retention and corrosion resistant features of the FCM fuel, should facilitate the long-term dry disposals of the spent fuel. From this study, it has been demonstrated that the CANDU FCM fuel is a feasible and viable option for CANDU reactors. The technology readiness level of the FCM fuel design and manufacturing is close to a lead test bundle loading for near-term deployment

  20. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important