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Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Predicting road accidents: Structural time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the model for occurrence of road accidents in Malaysia between the years of 1970 to 2010 was developed and throughout this model the number of road accidents have been predicted by using the structural time series approach. The models are developed by using stepwise method and the residual of each step has been analyzed. The accuracy of the model is analyzed by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the best model is chosen based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. A structural time series approach found that local linear trend model is the best model to represent the road accidents. This model allows level and slope component to be varied over time. In addition, this approach also provides useful information on improving the conventional time series method.

  2. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak V; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  3. Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-12-01

    Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

  4. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  5. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  6. Reaction time of drivers who caused road traffic accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Predrag

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Material and methods. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. Results. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Discussion. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time, but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Conclusion. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.

  7. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  8. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuuli Lahti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.

  9. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  10. Time varying effects in survival analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2002-01-01

    additive risk model; counting process; proportional hazards model; semi-parametric models; survival data; time-varying effects; nonparametric testing......additive risk model; counting process; proportional hazards model; semi-parametric models; survival data; time-varying effects; nonparametric testing...

  11. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  12. Predicting Mean Survival Time from Reported Median Survival Time for Cancer Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lousdal, Mette L; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Møller, Bjørn;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Mean duration of survival following treatment is a prerequisite for cost-effectiveness analyses used for assessing new and costly life-extending therapies for cancer patients. Mean survival time is rarely reported due to censoring imposed by limited follow-up time, whereas the median...... survival time often is. The empirical relationship between mean and median survival time for cancer patients is not known. AIM: To derive the empirical associations between mean and median survival time across cancer types and to validate this empirical prediction approach and compare it with the standard...... approach of fitting a Weibull distribution. METHODS: We included all patients in Norway diagnosed from 1960 to 1999 with one of the 13 most common solid tumor cancers until emigration, death, or 31 December 2011, whichever came first. Observed median, restricted mean, and mean survival times were obtained...

  13. Time to death analysis of road traffic accidents in relation to delta V, drunk driving, and restraint systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Yonghan; Sohn, So Young

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to identify variables related to the expected time to death due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). Such research is expected to be useful in improving safety laws and regulations and developing new safety systems. The resulting information is crucial not only for reducing accident fatalities but for assessing related insurance policies. In this article, we analyze factors that are potentially associated with variation in the expected survival time after a road traffic accident using Weibull regression. In particular, we consider the association with alcohol involvement, delta V, and restraint systems. Our empirical results, obtained based on the NASS-CDS, indicate that the expected survival time for non-alcohol-impaired drivers is 3.23 times longer at a delta V of 50 km/h than that for alcohol-impaired drivers under the same conditions. In addition, it was observed that, even when occupants were alcohol-impaired, if they were protected by both air bags and seat belts, their expected survival time after an RTA increased 2.59-fold compared to alcohol-impaired drivers who used only seat belts. Our findings may be useful in improving road traffic safety and insurance policies by offering insights into the factors that reduce fatalities.

  14. 78 FR 6402 - Pipeline Safety: Accident and Incident Notification Time Limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ... Time Limit AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA); DOT. ACTION: Notice... specific time limits for telephonic or electronic notice of accidents and incidents involving pipeline... require a specific time limit for telephonic or electronic reporting of pipeline accidents and...

  15. Change point estimation in monitoring survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Assareh

    Full Text Available Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

  16. Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

    2009-02-26

    We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is more efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.

  17. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITY TO AVOID A RUNNING-DOW ACCIDENT TIMELY BRAKING

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    Sarayev, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.

  18. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

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    Hyojoon Jeong

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents.

  19. Suitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    桑修文; 赵宏伟; 等

    1999-01-01

    Objective To explore sutitable time of treating maxillofacial trauma caused by traffic accident in general hospitals to decrease adverse effect caused by delayed therapy.Methods:In recent 10 years we have treated 154 cases of maxillofacial trauma by traffic accidents and their data were analyzed.Results:Early surgical therapy could be done in maxillofacial soft tissue trauma.The therapy of returning occlusion relation or temporary fixing was performed in bone fracture before porosis.Conclusions:For maxilloficial trauman and trauman of other parts caused by traffic accidents.early treatment should be done in order to decrease dysfunction and deformity caused by maxillofacial trauma.

  20. Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    2004-01-01

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis......censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis...

  1. Regression analysis of restricted mean survival time based on pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations......censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations...

  2. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  3. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  4. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heydari Seyed Taghi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran

  5. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  6. Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

    2017-04-03

    Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement. Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement. The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect. The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.

  7. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  8. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Seyed Taghi Heydari; Amin Hoseinzadeh; Yaser Sarikhani; Arya Hedjazi; Mohammad Zarenezhad; Ghasem Moafian; Mohammad Reza Aghabeigi

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Fars Province of Iran.Methods:This study was conducted in Fars Province,Iran from November 22,2009 to November 21,2011.Victims'information consisted of age,sex,death toll involving drivers or passengers of cars,motorcycles and pedestrians,and site of injury etc.Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day,season of the year,lighting condition including sunrise,sunset,daytime and nighttime.Results:Atotal of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males,and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1) were studied regarding their autopsy records.There was a steady increase in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59.The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13,95% CI 1.85-2.44).The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer.Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59and midnight to 3:59,whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59.Conclusion:The high mortality rate ofRTAis a major public health problem in Fars Province.Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths.

  9. Survivability Tests on a Nuclear Waste Cask in Simulated Railroad Accident Fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-06-01

    Test Number 1 42 11. The Wind Direction as a Function of Time During the HNPF Cask Thermal Test Number 1...43 12. The Wind Speed as a Function of Time During the HNPF Cask Thermal Test Number 1 .......................................... 44 13. The Ambient...60 27. A View of the HNPF Cask Taken During Torch Thermal Test Number 2 62 28. The Wind Direction as a

  10. Time series count data models: an empirical application to traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quddus, Mohammed A

    2008-09-01

    Count data are primarily categorised as cross-sectional, time series, and panel. Over the past decade, Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) models have been used widely to analyse cross-sectional and time series count data, and random effect and fixed effect Poisson and NB models have been used to analyse panel count data. However, recent literature suggests that although the underlying distributional assumptions of these models are appropriate for cross-sectional count data, they are not capable of taking into account the effect of serial correlation often found in pure time series count data. Real-valued time series models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, introduced by Box and Jenkins have been used in many applications over the last few decades. However, when modelling non-negative integer-valued data such as traffic accidents at a junction over time, Box and Jenkins models may be inappropriate. This is mainly due to the normality assumption of errors in the ARIMA model. Over the last few years, a new class of time series models known as integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) Poisson models, has been studied by many authors. This class of models is particularly applicable to the analysis of time series count data as these models hold the properties of Poisson regression and able to deal with serial correlation, and therefore offers an alternative to the real-valued time series models. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce the class of INAR models for the time series analysis of traffic accidents in Great Britain. Different types of time series count data are considered: aggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units of observation are relatively large (e.g., Great Britain and years) and disaggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units are relatively small (e.g., congestion charging zone and months). The performance of the INAR models is compared with the class of Box and

  11. Operative timing and patient survival following distal splenorenal shunt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomerantz, R A; Eckhauser, F E; Knol, J A; Guirre, K; Raper, S E; Turcotte, J G

    1989-06-01

    The importance of "operative timing" in cirrhotic patients with variceal hemorrhage is often underemphasized. To evaluate the effects of immediate versus delayed selective portasystemic decompression on hepatic function, operative mortality, and long-term patient survival, we reviewed the records of 77 patients who underwent distal splenorenal shunts (DSRS) over a 14-year period. A hepatic risk status score was calculated at the time of the index bleed (HRS1) or presentation and again just prior to operation (HRS2). Variables analyzed included age, sex, prior bleeding episodes, time from index bleed to operation, transfusion requirements, and etiology of cirrhosis. Operative mortality rates for immediate versus delayed DSRS were 46.2 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively. HRS improved significantly in elective DSRS patients from 1.46 to 1.30. Predictors of HRS2 included HRS1 and time in days from the index bleed to operation. The most important predictor of early survival for all patients after elective DSRS was the HRS2; however, for patients who underwent elective DSRS and survived, HRS1 was a better predictor of length of survival than HRS2. No other variable analyzed accurately predicted survival. We conclude that HRS can be expected to improve with supportive inhospital therapy; improved HRS at the time of operation is associated with decreased operative mortality; and the extent of liver disease as determined by HRS1 appears to be the chief determinant of long-term patient survival.

  12. Relationships of survival time, productivity and cause of death with telomere lengths of cows produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konishi, Kazuyuki; Yonai, Miharu; Kaneyama, Kanako; Ito, Satoshi; Matsuda, Hideo; Yoshioka, Hajime; Nagai, Takashi; Imai, Kei

    2011-10-01

    The reproductive ability, milk-producing capacity, survival time and relationships of these parameters with telomere length were investigated in 4 groups of cows produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT). Each group was produced using the same donor cells (6 Holstein (1H), 3 Holstein (2H), 4 Jersey (1J) and 5 Japanese Black (1B) cows). As controls, 47 Holstein cows produced by artificial insemination were used. The SCNT cows were artificially inseminated, and multiple deliveries were performed after successive rounds of breeding and conception. No correlation was observed between the telomere length and survival time in the SCNT cows. Causes of death of SCNT cows included accidents, accident-associated infections, inappropriate management, acute mastitis and hypocalcemia. The lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was superior to those of the controls and cell donor cows. All SCNT beef cows with a relatively light burden of lactation remained alive and showed significantly prolonged survival time compared with the cows in the SCNT dairy breeds. These results suggest that the lifetime productivity of SCNT cows was favorable, and their survival time was more strongly influenced by environmental burdens, such as pregnancy, delivery, lactation and feeding management, than by the telomere length.

  13. Indiana Emergent Bilingual Student Time to Reclassification: A Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, April M.; Morita-Mullaney, Trish; Singh, Malkeet

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we employed a discrete-time survival analysis model to examine Indiana emergent bilingual time to reclassification as fluent English proficient. The data consisted of five years of statewide English language proficiency scores. Indiana has a large and rapidly growing Spanish-speaking emergent bilingual population, and these students…

  14. Characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in a series of 98 patients with giant cell arteritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenone, Thierry; Puget, Marie

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in patients with giant cell arteritis. Retrospective data were collected from 98 patients at a single hospital with giant cell arteritis (according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) diagnosed between October 1999 and January 2012. Cerebrovascular accident was found at initial presentation in 6 patients (6.1 %, 95 % CIs 2.3-12.9). Most of them had other symptoms of giant cell arteritis when the disease began. Signs reflecting the involvement of vertebro-basilar territory were present in 3 cases. No other case of cerebrovascular accident was described during the follow-up of patient; particularly no case of cerebrovascular accident occurred once corticosteroid therapy for the treatment of giant cell arteritis had been initiated. No differences in the epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory features at the time of diagnosis between patients who had cerebrovascular accidents and the rest of the giant cell arteritis patients were observed. Prognosis was good in our survey. However, there was no case of bilateral vertebral artery occlusion, a condition associated with poor prognosis. The present study confirms that cerebrovascular accidents may be the initial manifestation of giant cell arteritis, an argument in favor of a direct effect of the vasculitis in the development of cerebrovascular accidents rather than a complication of the corticosteroid therapy. The diagnosis of giant cell arteritis should always be considered in an elderly patient with stroke and an unexplained elevation of inflammatory biomarkers.

  15. Study of cross-correlation in a self-affine time series of taxi accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebende, G. F.; da Silva, P. A.; Machado Filho, A.

    2011-05-01

    We study in this paper the cross-correlation between self-affine time series of real variables recorded simultaneously in cases of taxi accidents. For this purpose, we apply the DCCA method and show that the cross-correlation can be divided into three distinct groups, if we look for the detrended covariance function, i.e., long-range cross-correlations, short-range cross-correlations and no cross-correlations. Finally, it will be seen that the detrended covariance function is robust, if compared with other methods, in identifying these types of cross-correlations.

  16. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  17. Bathtub immersion accidents involving children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearn, J; Nixon, J

    1977-02-12

    A review of 19 consecutive serious bathtub immersion accidents (11 survivals, 8 fatalities) is presented. In all instances, consciousness was lost in the water. Unlike other childhood accidents which usually show a male predominance, the sexes are equally affected. The modal age is 11 months. Six separate causes of bath drownings and near-drownings have been identified, and in 14 of the 19 accidents, two or more causes were operating concurrently. Median estimated immersion time for survivals was four minutes, and five minutes for fatalities. The median depth of water was eight inches. An 'at risk' profile for home bathtub drownings is presented; this includes the youngest or second youngest child of a large family, a family of grade 4 to 7 sociooccupational status (congalton) and a family in which routine is temporarily broken.

  18. Survival Time of a Censored Supercritical Galton-Watson Process

    CERN Document Server

    Couronné, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of the survival time of a supercritical Galton-Watson process censored at a certain level. As a byproduct we obtain the asymptotics for the speed of a particular case of a particle system with branching and selection introduced by B\\'erard and Gou\\'er\\'e (2010).

  19. Estimation of diver survival time in a lost bell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipton, M.J.; Franks, C. [Surrey Univ., Guildford (United Kingdom); Meneilly, G.S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Medicine; Mekjavic, I.B. [Simon Fraser University, Vancouver (Canada). Dept. of Kinesiology

    1997-04-01

    Mathematical models of the human thermoregulatory system have been used to make predictions of the likely survival of divers in a ``lost bell`` who can be exposed to very low ambient temperatures. The circumstances considered are not the most extreme but those where, partly by shivering, the individual can re-enter thermal balance. The ability accurately to predict the level and duration of metabolic heat production is critical for the estimation of survival time under these conditions. Limitations on the accuracy of current models arise from the lack of precision in modelling the intensity and duration of the metabolic (shivering) response. A different basis for predicting shivering endurance using the time to hypogylcaemia (blood glucose level less than 2.5 mmol/1) is proposed. This leads to predicted survival times ranging from 10 to over 24 hours for those individuals able to stabilise deep body temperature. This seems to be more consistent with the limited experimental data which exists than the 8-9 hours predicted by other models. In order to help maintain blood sugar levels, and hence metabolic heat production, it is recommended that emergency rations within bells should provide 500g of carbohydrate a day. (59 figures; 221 references). (UK)

  20. Threshold regression for survival data with time-varying covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Mei-Ling Ting; Whitmore, G A; Rosner, Bernard A

    2010-03-30

    Time-to-event data with time-varying covariates pose an interesting challenge for statistical modeling and inference, especially where the data require a regression structure but are not consistent with the proportional hazard assumption. Threshold regression (TR) is a relatively new methodology based on the concept that degradation or deterioration of a subject's health follows a stochastic process and failure occurs when the process first reaches a failure state or threshold (a first-hitting-time). Survival data with time-varying covariates consist of sequential observations on the level of degradation and/or on covariates of the subject, prior to the occurrence of the failure event. Encounters with this type of data structure abound in practical settings for survival analysis and there is a pressing need for simple regression methods to handle the longitudinal aspect of the data. Using a Markov property to decompose a longitudinal record into a series of single records is one strategy for dealing with this type of data. This study looks at the theoretical conditions for which this Markov approach is valid. The approach is called threshold regression with Markov decomposition or Markov TR for short. A number of important special cases, such as data with unevenly spaced time points and competing risks as stopping modes, are discussed. We show that a proportional hazards regression model with time-varying covariates is consistent with the Markov TR model. The Markov TR procedure is illustrated by a case application to a study of lung cancer risk. The procedure is also shown to be consistent with the use of an alternative time scale. Finally, we present the connection of the procedure to the concept of a collapsible survival model.

  1. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached by focusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kind of substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time. The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “ever-living present.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductory matter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is a treatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations in the n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have done away with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives as eternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of the nature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notion of holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory. I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence of actual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in his reflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentially more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in the last section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin, as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’s inspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretation leads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of its reconciliation

  2. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached byfocusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kindof substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time.The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “everlivingpresent.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complexholistic”theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductorymatter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternalrecurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is atreatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations inthe n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have doneaway with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives aseternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of thenature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notionof holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory.I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence ofactual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in hisreflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentiallymore integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in thelast section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin,as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’sinspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretationleads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of itsreconciliation with the once-only view

  3. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  4. Cranial trauma and the assessment of posttraumatic survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyn, M; De Boer, H H; Van der Merwe, A E

    2014-11-01

    Assessment of trauma on skeletal remains can be very difficult, especially when it comes to the estimation of posttraumatic survival time in partially healed lesions. The ability to reliably estimate the time an individual has survived after sustaining an injury is especially important in cases of child abuse and torture, but can also aid in determining the association between an injury and eventual death. Here a case from South Africa is reported, where the skeletal remains of an unknown individual were found with cranial and scapular fractures. These fractures all presented with macroscopic features indicative of healing. Using recently published data on the timing of fractures by De Boer et al., the two sets of cranial trauma and the scapular fracture were assessed by means of radiology, histology and microCT scanning. This was primarily done in order to obtain more information on the events surrounding the death of this individual, but also to assess the usability of the published methods on cranial fractures. It was found that the initial trauma was most likely sustained at least two weeks before death, whilst a neurosurgical procedure was performed at least one week before death. It seems that cranial fractures, especially if stable, may show some different healing features than postcranial fractures. The individual has since been identified, but unfortunately as is often the case in South Africa, limited information is available and the medical records could not be found. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stehney, A.F.

    1994-05-01

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening ({plus_minus}S.E.) of 1.8 {plus_minus}0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of {sup 226}Ra + {sup 228}Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment.

  6. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  7. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  8. Mean Exit Time and Survival Probability within the CTRW Formalism

    CERN Document Server

    Montero, M; Montero, Miquel; Masoliver, Jaume

    2006-01-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood t...

  9. Time changes in radiocesium concentration in aquatic systems affected by the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Yuichi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Iwagami, Sho; Tsujimura, Maki; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masatoshi

    2015-04-01

    Due to Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, radioactive materials including Cs-134 and Cs-137 were widely distributed in surrounded area. The radiocesiums have been transported in river networks. The monitoring started at 6 sites from June 2011. Subsequently, additional 24 monitoring sites were installed between October 2012 and January 2013. Flow and turbidity (for calculation of suspended sediment concentration) were measured at each site, while suspended sediments and river water were collected every one or half month to measure Cs-134 and Cs-137 activity concentrations by gamma spectrometry. Also detailed field monitoring has been condcuted in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. These monitoring includes, 1) Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use, 2) 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope, 3) Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water, 4)Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment, and 5)Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide

  10. Survival

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These data provide information on the survival of California red-legged frogs in a unique ecosystem to better conserve this threatened species while restoring...

  11. Accidents (FARS) (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Accident - (1975-current): This data file (NTAD) contains information about crash characteristics and environmental conditions at the time of the crash. There is one...

  12. The preparation of tourists to the ski sports tours in a limited time in order to prevent injuries and accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toporkov A.N.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: compare indicators of testing tourist skiers at different stages of the preparatory period to ski sports hike of third grade. Determine the effectiveness of training programs created to the tourists Categorical ski sports to prevent injuries and accidents in a limited time. Material: The study involved 13 people aged from 21 to 65 (4 women and 9 men with different experiences of hiking trails and various levels of total tourist preparedness. Results: The test results obtained before beginning the process of preparation are treated upon its completion, and immediately after passing categorical hike. In practice, the effectiveness of the proposed training programs of tourists to ski sports tours is proved. Conclusions : The created program can be recommended to tourist clubs, associations and organizations as the base in preparation for ski sports campaigns for the prevention of accidents and injuries.

  13. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    CHOI, Wan-Suk; KIM, Bo-Kyung; KIM, Ki-Do; MOON, Ok-Kon; YEUM, Dong-Moon

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction...

  14. Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C

    2012-12-20

    Simulations and Monte Carlo methods serve an important role in modern statistical research. They allow for an examination of the performance of statistical procedures in settings in which analytic and mathematical derivations may not be feasible. A key element in any statistical simulation is the existence of an appropriate data-generating process: one must be able to simulate data from a specified statistical model. We describe data-generating processes for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates when event times follow an exponential, Weibull, or Gompertz distribution. We consider three types of time-varying covariates: first, a dichotomous time-varying covariate that can change at most once from untreated to treated (e.g., organ transplant); second, a continuous time-varying covariate such as cumulative exposure at a constant dose to radiation or to a pharmaceutical agent used for a chronic condition; third, a dichotomous time-varying covariate with a subject being able to move repeatedly between treatment states (e.g., current compliance or use of a medication). In each setting, we derive closed-form expressions that allow one to simulate survival times so that survival times are related to a vector of fixed or time-invariant covariates and to a single time-varying covariate. We illustrate the utility of our closed-form expressions for simulating event times by using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power to detect as statistically significant the effect of different types of binary time-varying covariates. This is compared with the statistical power to detect as statistically significant a binary time-invariant covariate.

  15. Rubber dam may increase the survival time of dental restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keys, William; Carson, Susan J

    2017-03-01

    Data sourcesCochrane Oral Health's Trials Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, LILACS, SciELO, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database, VIP, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, OpenGrey and Sciencepaper Online databases. Handsearches in a number of journals.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials, including split-mouth studies assessing the effects of rubber dam isolation for restorative treatments in dental patients.Data extraction and synthesisTwo review authors independently screened the results of the electronic searches, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies.ResultsFour studies involving a total of 1,270 patients were included. The studies were at high risk of bias. One trial was excluded from the analysis due to inconsistencies in the presented data. Restorations had a significantly higher survival rate in the rubber dam isolation group compared to the cotton roll isolation group at six months in participants receiving composite restorative treatment of non-carious cervical lesions (risk ratio (RR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.37, very low-quality evidence). The rubber dam group had a lower risk of failure at two years in children undergoing proximal atraumatic restorative treatment in primary molars (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97, very low-quality evidence). One trial reported limited data showing that rubber dam usage during fissure sealing might shorten the treatment time. None of the included studies mentioned adverse effects or reported the direct cost of the treatment, or the level of patient acceptance/satisfaction. There was also no evidence evaluating the effects of rubber dam usage on the quality of the restorations.ConclusionsWe found some very low-quality evidence, from single studies, suggesting that rubber dam usage in dental direct

  16. Crunch Time for the Diplomas: Will They Survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Mike

    2009-01-01

    This article looks at the introduction of the diplomas as part of the 14-19 reforms in England. It questions whether they can survive the low initial take-up from students, the lack of interest from key parts of the schools sector, and the confusing messages about what sort of qualification they are meant to be. It also asks whether the diplomas…

  17. Improving lung cancer survival; time to move on

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.E. Heuvers (Marlies); J.P.J.J. Hegmans (Joost); B.H.Ch. Stricker (Bruno); J.G.J.V. Aerts (Joachim)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: During the past decades, numerous efforts have been made to decrease the death rate among lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, the improvement in long-term survival has been limited and lung cancer is still a devastating disease.Discussion: With this article we would like to

  18. Thyroid cancer among Ukrainians and Belarusians who were children or adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, P [GSF-Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany); Bogdanova, T I [Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine); Buglova, E [Research Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Minsk (Belarus); Chepurniy, M [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute, Kyiv (Ukraine); Demidchik, Y [Belarus State Medical University, Minsk, Belarus (Belarus); Gavrilin, Y [State Research Center-Institute of Biophysics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Kenigsberg, J [Research Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Minsk (Belarus); Kruk, J [Research Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Minsk (Belarus); Schotola, C [GSF-Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany); Shinkarev, S [State Research Center-Institute of Biophysics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Tronko, M D [Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine); Vavilov, S [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute, Kyiv (Ukraine)

    2006-03-15

    Our objective is to assess the regional and temporal dependences of the baseline cases contributing to thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood or during adolescence in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Data are analysed for Kyiv and Sevastopol City and the 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and for Minsk and Gomel City and the 6 oblasts in Belarus. Average thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for every birth year in the period from 1968 to 1985. Case data pertain to people who underwent surgical removal of thyroid cancers during the period 1986 to 2001 and who were allocated to their place of residence at the time of the accident. The 35 oblasts/cities were subdivided into an upper, middle and lower group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. Poisson regressions were performed to estimate age, time and gender dependences of the baseline incidence rates in the three groups. The majority of oblasts/cities with high average doses and the majority of Belarusian oblasts/cities belong to the upper group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. The baseline in the upper group is estimated to be larger than in the middle group by a factor of 2.3, and by a factor of 4.0 when compared to the lower group. The baseline incidence increases with age and with time since exposure. Estimated baseline incidence rates were found to increase from 1988 to 1999 by factors of three and two for the upper and the two lower groups respectively. The estimated thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus and Ukraine, and their dependences on gender and age, are consistent with observed rates found in the larger cancer registries of other countries. In conclusion, the baseline cases are found to contribute about 70% to the thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine, and about 40% to the incidence in Belarus.

  19. Association between time to disease progression end points and overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simron Singh,1 Xufang Wang,2 Calvin HL Law1 1Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Center, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Novartis Oncology, Florham Park, NJ, USA Abstract: Overall survival can be difficult to determine for slowly progressing malignancies, such as neuroendocrine tumors. We investigated whether time to disease progression is positively associated with overall survival in patients with such tumors. A literature review identified 22 clinical trials in patients with neuroendocrine tumors that reported survival probabilities for both time to disease progression (progression-free survival and time to progression and overall survival. Associations between median time to disease progression and median overall survival and between treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival were analyzed using weighted least-squares regression. Median time to disease progression was significantly associated with median overall survival (coefficient 0.595; P=0.022. In the seven randomized studies identified, the risk reduction for time to disease progression was positively associated with the risk reduction for overall survival (coefficient on −ln[HR] 0.151; 95% confidence interval −0.843, 1.145; P=0.713. The significant association between median time to disease progression and median overall survival supports the assertion that time to disease progression is an alternative end point to overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. An apparent albeit not significant trend correlates treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival. Informal surveys of physicians’ perceptions are consistent with these concepts, although additional randomized trials are needed. Keywords: neuroendocrine tumors, progression-free survival, disease progression, mortality

  20. Predicted Water Immersion Survival Times for Anti-Exposure Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-10-01

    which to determine what garments need to be worn and when. Therefore, the goal of this study was to develop a family of risk curves based on the...females who are known to lose more body heat than men3, and also does not account for wave effects, fatigue, last mealtime , injuries, attitude, etc...garments. These heat stress data combined with the immersion survivability estimates can be used to generate a family of curves to provide comprehensive

  1. Semiparametric Methods to Contrast Gap Time Survival Functions: Application to Repeat Kidney Transplantation

    OpenAIRE

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-ident...

  2. CURRENT FACTORS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN ISFAHAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B AMINMAN SOUR

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Introduction. Car accident mortality is the third order causes of death in the USA, following cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Given present survival and outcome Iranian data, more than 14,000 patients die annually in road accidents. Having a valid and reliable data could be useful in reduce mortality and morbidity reduction.
    Methods. Twenty five percent of total traumatic patients in Isfahan were selected (N=2809 at the time of study (1997-1998. Forty five percent of them with car accident were asked about causes of accidents and risk factors for the severity and type of injuries were recorded based on International Classification of Disease 10.
    Results. Most of the victims were young (10-20 years old, students and industrial workers. Statistically unreasonable numbers of cars without extension of roads and high ways, using old and unsafe cars will affects on accidents.
    Discussion. In comparison with European and some Asian countries, Iran has unacceptable road accidents and it seems necessary to pay more attention to stop the current increasing data.

     

  3. An analysis of the effectiveness of emergency locator transmitters to reduce response time and locate wreckage in U.S. general aviation accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesudoss, Ajit

    Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELT) help search crews to locate aircraft in distress and to rescue survivors. This study analyzed ELT data from U.S. General Aviation accidents during the period 2006 to 2010. This study examined the effectiveness of ELTs in terms of ELT Success Rate (ESR) and False Negative Rate (FNR) based on ELT-Aided. This study found a significant difference between ELT-Operated and ELT-Aided. The ESR was found to be 38.58% whereas the FNR was found to be 61.42 %. The Missing Data Ratio (MDR), where accident reports had no ELT information, was found to be above 95%. Recommendations were made to include ELT information in all accident reports and to stress the importance of including response time in the accident report. Also the significant differences between ELT-Operated and ELT-Aided were explained.

  4. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors...... of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day...

  5. A Multivariate Model for the Meta-Analysis of Study Level Survival Data at Multiple Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dan; Rollins, Katie; Coughlin, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and…

  6. Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

    2013-12-10

    The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-06-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance.

  8. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  9. Impacts of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident on emergency medical service times in Soma District, Japan: a retrospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Tomohiro; Furutani, Tomoyuki; Nomura, Shuhei; Leppold, Claire; Takahara, Kazuhiro; Shimada, Yuki; Fujioka, Sho; Kami, Masahiro; Kato, Shigeaki; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the influence of the 3.11 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident) on the emergency medical service (EMS) system in Fukushima. Methods Total EMS time (from EMS call to arrival at a hospital) was assessed in the EMS system of Soma district, located 10–40 km north of the nuclear plant, from 11 March to 31 December 2011. We defined the affected period as when total EMS time was significantly extended after the disasters compared with the historical control data from 1 January 2009 to 10 March 2011. To identify risk factors associated with the extension of total EMS time after the disasters, we investigated trends in 3 time segments of total EMS time; response time, defined as time from an EMS call to arrival at the location, on-scene time, defined as time from arrival at the location to departure, and transport time, defined as time from departure from the location to arrival at a hospital. Results For the affected period from week 0 to week 11, the median total EMS time was 36 (IQR 27–52) minutes, while that in the predisaster control period was 31 (IQR 24–40) min. The percentage of transports exceeding 60 min in total EMS time increased from 8.2% (584/7087) in the control period to 22.2% (151/679) in the affected period. Among the 3 time segments, there was the most change in transport time (standardised mean difference: 0.41 vs 0.13–0.17). Conclusions EMS transport was significantly delayed for ∼3 months, from week 1 to 11 after the 3.11 triple disaster. This delay may be attributed to malfunctioning emergency hospitals after the triple disaster. PMID:27683521

  10. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Sen, Ashoke [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study,Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Verma, Mritunjay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); International Centre for Theoretical Sciences,Malleshwaram, Bengaluru 560 012 (India)

    2015-09-21

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  11. Three-dimensional dose evaluation system using real-time wind field information for nuclear accidents in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jay; Lu, Chung-Hsin; Chang, Shu-Jun; Yang, Yung-Muh; Chang, Bor-Jing; Teng, Jen-Hsin

    2006-09-01

    In Taiwan, the three operating nuclear power plants are all built along the coast over complex terrain. Dose estimates after a nuclear accident with releases of radioactive materials, therefore, cannot be accurately calculated using simple dispersion models. We developed a three-dimensional dose evaluation system, which incorporates real-time prognostic wind field information with three-dimensional numerical models to predict dose results. The proposed system consists of three models: a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model (HOTMAC), a three-dimensional transport and diffusion model (RAPTAD), and a dose calculation model (DOSE). The whole-body dose and thyroid dose as well as dose rates can be rapidly estimated and displayed on the three-dimensional terrain model constructed by satellite images. The developed three-dimensional dose evaluation system could accurately forecast the dose results and has been used in the annual nuclear emergency response exercise to provide suggestions for protective measures.

  12. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  13. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  14. Surviving in a Metastable de Sitter Space-Time

    CERN Document Server

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Sen, Ashoke; Verma, Mritunjay

    2015-01-01

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of t...

  15. Verification and Validation of Neutronic/Thermalhydraulic 3D-Time Dependent Model for Treatment of Super-critical States of Light water Research Reactors Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaled, S.M. [Department of Basic Studies and Sciences, Community College, University of Tabuk, Tabuk (Saudi Arabia); Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Helwan University, Cairo (Egypt)

    2015-07-01

    This work presents the Verification and testing both the neutronic and thermal-hydraulics response of the positive reactivity-initiated power excursion accidents in small light water research reactors. Some research reactors have to build its own severe accidents code system. In this sense, a 3D space-time-dependent neutron diffusion models with thermal hydraulic feedback have been introduced, compared and tested both experimentally at criticality 14-cent and theoretically up to 1.5 $ with a number of similar codes. The results shows that no expected core failure or moderator boiling. (author)

  16. 30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zablotska, Lydia B

    2016-06-01

    It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

  17. Variations in survival time for amalgam and resin composite restorations: a population based cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, S; Price, R; Andreou, P; Jones, G; Portolesi, A

    2016-09-01

    To estimate the association between the restorative material used and time to further treatment across population cohorts with universal coverage for dental treatment. Cohort study of variation in survival time for tooth restorations over time and by restoration material used based on an Accelerated Failure Time model. Primary dental care clinics. Members of Canada's First Nations and Inuit population covered by the Non-Insured Health Benefits program of Health Canada for the period April 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Tooth restorations using resin composite or amalgam material. Survival time of restoration to further treatment. Median survival time for resin composite was 51 days longer than amalgam, for restorations placed in 1999-2000. This difference was not statistically significant (p⟩0.05). Median survival times were lower for females, older subjects. Those visiting the dentist annually, and decreased monotonically over time from 11.2 and 11.3 years for resin composite and amalgam restorations respectively placed in 1999-2000 to 6.9 and 7.0 years for those placed in 2009-10. Resin composite restorations performed no better than amalgams over the study period, but cost considerably more. With the combination of the overall decrease in survival times for both resin composite and amalgam restorations and the increase in use of resin composite, the costs of serving Health Canada's Non-Insured Health Benefits population will rise considerably, even without any increase in the incidence of caries.

  18. Pore size distribution, survival probability, and relaxation time in random and ordered arrays of fibers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomadakis, Manolis M.; Robertson, Teri J.

    2003-07-01

    We present a random walk based investigation of the pore size probability distribution and its moments, the survival probability and mean survival time, and the principal relaxation time, for random and ordered arrays of cylindrical fibers of various orientation distributions. The dimensionless mean survival time, principal relaxation time, mean pore size, and mean square pore size are found to increase with porosity, remain practically independent of the directionality of random fiber beds, and attain lower values for ordered arrays. Wide pore size distributions are obtained for random fiber structures and relatively narrow for ordered square arrays, all in very good agreement with theoretically predicted limiting values. Analytical results derived for the pore size probability and its lower moments for square arrays of fibers practically coincide with the corresponding simulation results. Earlier variational bounds on the mean survival time and principal relaxation time are obeyed by our numerical results in all cases, and are found to be quite sharp up to very high porosities. Dimensionless groups representing the deviation of such bounds from our simulation results vary in practically the same range as the corresponding values reported earlier for beds of spherical particles. A universal scaling expression of the literature relating the mean survival time to the mean pore size [S. Torquato and C. L. Y. Yeong, J. Chem. Phys. 106, 8814 (1997)] agrees very well with our results for all types of fiber structures, thus validated for the first time for anisotropic porous media.

  19. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  20. Time changes in suspended sediment radiocesium concentration in rivers in Fukushima affected by the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Due to Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, radioactive materials including Cs-134 and Cs-137 were widely distributed in surrounded area. The radiocesium deposited in Fukushima area have been transported in river networks. The monitoring started at 6 sites from June 2011. Subsequently, additional 24 monitoring sites were installed between October 2012 and January 2013. Flow and turbidity (for calculation of suspended sediment concentration) were measured at each site, while suspended sediments and river water were collected every one or half month to measure Cs-134 and Cs-137 activity concentrations by gamma spectrometry. Our monitoring result data demonstrated that the Cs-137 activity concentration in sediment eroded from the runoff-erosion plot, has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed a slight decrease through with time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy fields and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 activity concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 activity concentration was fitted using a two-component exponential model. Differences in the exponential reduction rates of the model were compared and discussed with respect to various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  1. Using queuing theory to analyse the government's 4-H completion time target in accident and emergency departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhew, L; Smith, D

    2008-03-01

    This paper uses a queuing model to evaluate completion times in Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments in the light of the Government target of completing and discharging 98% of patients inside 4 h. It illustrates how flows though an A&E can be accurately represented as a queuing process, how outputs can be used to visualise and interpret the 4-h Government target in a simple way and how the model can be used to assess the practical achievability of A&E targets in the future. The paper finds that A&E targets have resulted in significant improvements in completion times and thus deal with a major source of complaint by users of the National Health Service in the U.K. It suggests that whilst some of this improvement is attributable to better management, some is also due to the way some patients in A&E are designated and therefore counted through the system. It finds for example that the current target would not have been possible without some form of patient re-designation or re-labelling taking place. Further it finds that the current target is so demanding that the integrity of reported performance is open to question. Related incentives and demand management issues resulting from the target are also briefly discussed.

  2. On a link between a species survival time in an evolution model and the Bessel distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Guiol, Herve; Schinazi, Rinaldo B

    2011-01-01

    We consider a stochastic model for species evolution. A new species is born at rate lambda and a species dies at rate mu. A random number, sampled from a given distribution F, is associated with each new species at the time of birth. Every time there is a death event, the species that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We consider the (random) survival time of a species with a given fitness f. We show that the survival time distribution depends crucially on whether ff_c where f_c is a critical fitness that is computed explicitly.

  3. Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

    2016-08-01

    A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0.

  4. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  5. Time trends of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heidenreich, W F [GSF-National Research Centre for Environment and Health, Institute for Radiation Protection, 85764 Neuherberg (Germany); Bogdanova, T I [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine); Biryukov, A G [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine); Tronko, N D [Ukrainian Research Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 254114 Kiev (Ukraine)

    2004-09-01

    The rate of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in northern Ukraine during the period 1986-1998 is described as a function of time-since-exposure, age-at-exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk per dose: after a minimal latency period of about three years it shows a linear increase with time-since-exposure for at least nine years. It is roughly constant in age-at-exposure, up to 15 years. For girls exposed very young it is about a factor 2 larger than for boys. For children exposed at age 16-18 this ratio increases to about 5. The thyroids of young children are not more sensitive to radiation dose than those of older ones in absolute risk in northern Ukraine in the currently used data set. As the background is increasing with age, a constant absolute risk gives a decreasing relative risk.

  6. Time-fractional telegraph equation for hydrogen diffusion during severe accident in BWRs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.-I. Cázares-Ramírez

    2016-01-01

    The hydrogen concentration results in a reaction due to oxidation for different values of fractional coefficient, at t=0 and short times were obtained. The physical meaning is discussed when the fractional coefficient tends to a value of 1 and when it tends to a value of 0.5, i.e., within the limits of validity of the fractional model proposed. According to the results obtained the hydrogen concentration is inversely proportional to the fractional coefficient. These results are relevant for decision making in terms of risk analysis in nuclear power plant with BWR.

  7. An analysis of pattern of dental injuries after fall accidents in 0- to 2-year-old children - does the use of pacifier at the time of injury make a difference?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostergaard, Birthe Høgsbro; Andreasen, Jens O; Ahrensburg, Søren S;

    2011-01-01

    To assess the relation between type of traumatic injury and use of pacifier at the time of a fall accident in 0- to 2-year olds.......To assess the relation between type of traumatic injury and use of pacifier at the time of a fall accident in 0- to 2-year olds....

  8. [Drowning accidents in childhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krandick, G; Mantel, K

    1990-09-30

    This is a report on five boys aged between 1 and 5 years who, after prolonged submersion in cold water, were treated at our department. On being taken out of the water, all the patients were clinically dead. After 1- to 3-hour successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, with a rectal temperature of about 27 degrees C, they were rewarmed at a rate of 1 degree/hour. Two patients died within a few hours after the accident. One patient survived with an apallic syndrome, 2 children survived with no sequelae. In the event of a water-related accident associated with hypothermia, we consider suitable resuscitation to have preference over rewarming measures. The most important treatment guidelines and prognostic factors are discussed.

  9. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  10. Time-course regulation of quercetin on cell survival/proliferation pathways in human hepatoma cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granado-Serrano, Ana Belén; Angeles Martín, María; Bravo, Laura; Goya, Luis; Ramos, Sonia

    2008-04-01

    Quercetin, a dietary flavonoid, has been shown to possess anticarcinogenic properties, but the precise molecular mechanisms of action are not thoroughly elucidated. This study was aimed at investigating the time-course regulation effect of quercetin on survival/proliferation pathways in a human hepatoma cell line (HepG2). Quercetin induced a significant time-dependent inactivation of the major survival signaling proteins, i. e., phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI 3-kinase)/protein kinase B (AKT), extracellular regulated kinase (ERK), protein kinase C-alpha (PKC-alpha), in concert with a time-dependent activation of key death-related signals: c-jun amino-terminal kinase (JNK) and PKC-delta. These data suggest that quercetin exerts a tight regulation of survival/proliferation pathways that requires the integration of different signals and persists over time, being the balance of these regulatory signals what determines the fate of HepG2 cells.

  11. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  12. Multiplicative models for survival percentiles: estimating percentile ratios and multiplicative interaction in the metric of time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Bellavia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating percentiles of survival was proposed as a possible method to analyze time-to-event outcomes. This approach sets the cumulative risk of the event of interest to a specific proportion and evaluates the time by which this proportion is attainedIn this context, exposure-outcome associations can be expressed in terms of differences in survival percentiles, expressing the difference in survival time by which different subgroups of the study population experience the same proportion of events, or in terms of percentile ratios, expressing the strength of the exposure in accelerating the time to the event. Additive models for conditional survival percentiles have been introduced, and their use to estimate multivariable-adjusted percentile differences, and additive interaction on the metric of time has been described. On the other hand, the percentile ratio has never been fully described, neither statistical methods have been presented for its models-based estimation. To bridge this gap, we provide a detailed presentation of the percentile ratio as a relative measure to assess exposure-outcome associations in the context of time-to-event analysis, discussing its interpretation and advantages. We then introduce multiplicative statistical models for conditional survival percentiles, and present their use in estimating percentile ratios and multiplicative interactions in the metric of time. The introduction of multiplicative models for survival percentiles allows researchers to apply this approach in a large variety of context where multivariable adjustment is required, enriching the potentials of the percentile approach as a flexible and valuable tool to evaluate time-to-event outcomes in medical research.

  13. THE SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN FINITE TIME PERIOD IN FULLY DISCRETE RISK MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ChengShixue; WuBiao

    1999-01-01

    The probabilities of the following events are first discussed in this paper: the insurance company survives to any fixed time k and the surplus at time k equals x≥1. The formulas for calculating such probabilities are deduced through analytical and probabilistic arguments respectively. Finally, other probability laws relating to risk are determined based on the probabilities mentioned above.

  14. Intraspecific variation in desiccation survival time of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito eggs of Australian origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faull, Katherine J; Williams, Craig R

    2015-12-01

    Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes preferentially oviposit in natural and artificial receptacles where their eggs are able to withstand drying as water levels fluctuate. Desiccation-resistant eggs also increase the potential for establishment in non-native habitats while providing logistical impediments to control programs. Viability and mean survival times of eggs stored under three dryness conditions for up to 367 days were investigated among three field-derived colonies of Australian Ae. aegypti to understand variation in desiccation survival. Further investigations compared egg survival between an established colony and its wild counterpart. Our results confirmed that Ae. aegypti eggs can withstand desiccation for extended periods of time with approximately 2-15% egg viability recorded after one year and viability remaining above 88% under all conditions through 56 days. Intraspecific variations in egg survival times were recorded, suggesting local adaptation while each of the colonies demonstrated a consistent preference for higher humidity. Egg volume varied between the populations, suggesting a relationship between egg volume and survival time, with the marginally larger eggs (Charters Towers and Innisfail) having greater desiccation resistance over the range of conditions. The strong survivorship of Charters Towers eggs in dry, warm conditions demonstrates the adaptive significance of a desiccation-resistant egg.

  15. Prediction of the Containment Pressure under Severe Accidents Using CFNN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, Young Do; Choi, Geon Pil; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    It is important to keep containment integrity by measuring main risk factors such as temperature and hydrogen concentration that occur pressure rise in the containment and by operating safety features at the right time. In this study, the circumstance that instrumentation equipment in NPPs is uncertain under severe accidents after DBA is assumed. This is to keep containment integrity by manually generating the safety injection actuation signal (SIAS) and to assess integrity of accident equipment through early prediction of the containment pressure under extreme circumstances when main factors such as temperature and hydrogen concentration that rise pressure in containment may not be adequately measured. In this study, the cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) model is used to predict containment pressure using LOCA break sizes as input data. Because the real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents, they were gained by numerically simulating severe accident scenarios of the optimized power reactor (OPR1000) using modular accident analysis program (MAAP) code. Temperature and hydrogen concentration in the containment are risk factors that increase containment pressure under severe accidents. Therefore, LOCA sizes as the input data for the CFNN model are used to predict the containment pressure. This input data is the simulation data obtained by using MAAP4 code for the OPR1000 reactor. As a result of using the CFNN model, the RMS errors are within 0.4% to 1.4. Accordingly, The CFNN could be a model that reliably predict the containment pressure and the data through CFNN model could figure out the containment integrity and assess the survivability of severe accident equipment under accidents.

  16. Graft pathology at the time of harvest: impact on long-term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Min Yuan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aims to present the graft pathology at the time of harvest and its impact on long-term survival. Methods: The remnants of the bypass grafts from 66 consecutive patients with coronary artery disease receiving a coronary artery bypass grafting were investigated pathologically, and pertinent predictive risk factors and survival were analyzed. Results: Medial degenerative changes with or without intimal proliferation were present in 36.8%, 37.8% and 35.6% of left internal mammary artery (IMA, radial artery and saphenous vein grafts. There were 2 (3.0% hospital deaths and 9 (14.1% late deaths. Multinomial logistic regression revealed left IMA pathological changes, dyslipidemia, history of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/stent deployment and Y-graft were significant predictive risk factors negatively influencing the patients’ long-term survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the long-term survival of patients with left IMA pathological changes were significantly reduced compared with those without (74.1% vs. 91.4%, P=0.002; whereas no differences were noted in long-term survivals between patients with and without pathological changes of the radial arterial or saphenous vein grafts. Conclusion: Pathological changes may be seen in the bypass graft at the time of harvest. The subtle ultrastructural modifications and the expressions of vascular tone regulators might be responsible for late graft patency. The pathological changes of the left IMA at the time of harvest rather than those of the radial artery or saphenous vein graft affect significantly longterm survival. Non-traumatic maneuver of left IMA harvest, well-controlled dyslipidemia and avoidance of using composite grafts can be helpful in maintaining the architecture of the grafts.

  17. Effect of spaying and timing of spaying on survival of dogs with mammary carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenmo, K U; Shofer, F S; Goldschmidt, M H

    2000-01-01

    The risk of developing mammary gland tumors in dogs is significantly decreased by ovariohysterectomy at an early age. However, previous studies have not found a benefit to ovariohysterectomy concurrent with tumor removal in dogs with established mammary gland tumors, suggesting that the progression of these tumors is independent of continued estrogen stimulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of spaying and of the timing of spaying on survival in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma. Signalment, spay status and spay age, tumor characteristics, treatment. survival, and cause of death of 137 dogs with mammary gland carcinoma were analyzed. The dogs were classified into 3 groups according to spay status and spay time: intact dogs, dogs spayed less than 2 years before tumor surgery (SPAY 1), and dogs spayed more than 2 years before their tumor surgery (SPAY 2). Dogs in the SPAY 1 group lived significantly longer than dogs in SPAY 2 and intact dogs (median survival of 755 days, versus 301 and 286 days, respectively, P = .02 and .03). After adjusting for differences between the spay groups with regard to age, histologic differentiation, and vascular invasion, SPAY 1 dogs survived 45% longer compared to dogs that were either intact or in the SPAY 2 group (RR = .55; 95% CI .32-.93; P = .03). This study reveals ovariohysterectomy to be an effective adjunct to tumor removal in dogs with mammary gland carcinoma and that the timing of ovariohysterectomy is important in influencing survival.

  18. On The Estimation of Survival Function and Parameter Exponential Life Time Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadeel S. Al-Kutubi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The study and research of survival or reliability or life time belong to the same area of study but they may belong to a different area of application. In survival analysis one can use several life time distribution, exponential distribution with mean life time θ is one of them. To estimate this parameter and survival function we must be used estimation procedures with less MSE and MPE. Approach: The only statistical theory that combined modeling inherent uncertainty and statistical uncertainty is Bayesian statistics. The theorem of Bayes provided a solution to how learn from data. Bayes theorem was depending on prior and posterior distribution and standard Bayes estimator depends on Jeffery prior information. In this study we annexed Jeffery prior information to get the modify Bayes estimator and then compared it with standard Bayes estimator and maximum likelihood estimator to find the best (less MSE and MPE. Results: when we derived Bayesian and Maximum likelihood of the scale parameter and survival functions. Simulation study was used to compare between estimators and Mean Square Error (MSE and Mean Percentage Error (MPE of estimators are computed. Conclusion: The new proposed estimator of modify Bayes estimator in parameter and survival function was the best estimator (less MSE and MPE when we compared it with standard Bayes and maximum likelihood estimator.

  19. Iodine isotopes in precipitation: Four-year time series variations before and after 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.;

    2016-01-01

    Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for 127I and 129I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived 129I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets...... from March 2011 to September 2012, whereas the 129I concentrations and 129I/127I ratios followed declining trends since the accident. Although 129I concentrations in five samples during the period of 2013-2014 have approached the pre-accident levels, 129I concentrations in most samples remained higher...... values in winter and spring-summer. The high 129I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up 129I from contaminated soil...

  20. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  1. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Kim, Bo-Kyung; Kim, Ki-Do; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2016-10-08

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction. The Korea Workers' Compensation & Welfare Service conducted the first nationwide panel survey on occupational health and safety insurance in 2013-2014 through a stratified systematic sampling on 2,000 industrial accident workers who completed convalescence. Based on the dataset, our study analyzed 1,832 workers experiencing an industrial accident after excluding 168 disease patients. For the research model analysis, a four-stage hierarchical regression analysis technique was applied using the SPSS regression analysis Macro program of PROCESS Procedure. To test mediated indirect effects of the self-esteem and sleeping time, the bootstrapping technique was applied. Life satisfaction, self-esteem and sleeping time decreased as the number of painful stimuli increased. Life satisfaction decreased as self-esteem and sleeping time decreased. On balance, the partial mediation model confirmed that self-esteem and sleeping time both mediate the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction.

  2. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  3. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  4. Survival and relaxation time, pore size distribution moments, and viscous permeability in random unidirectional fiber structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomadakis, Manolis M.; Robertson, Teri J.

    2005-03-01

    Computer simulation results are presented for the mean survival time, principal relaxation time, mean pore size, and mean square pore size, for random porous structures consisting of parallel nonoverlapping or partially overlapping fibers. The numerical procedure is based on a discrete step-by-step random walk mechanism simulating the Brownian diffusion trajectories of molecules in the porous media. Numerical results on the viscous permeability of these structures are computed with a method based on electrical conduction principles and compared to a variational bound derived from the mean survival time. The results show that nonoverlapping fiber structures exhibit lower values of the dimensionless mean survival time, principal relaxation time, mean pore size, and mean square pore size than randomly overlapping fiber structures of the same porosity, while partially overlapping fiber structures show behavior intermediate to those of the two extreme cases. The mean square pore size (second moment of the pore size distribution) is found to be a very good predictor of the mean survival time for non-, partially, and randomly overlapping fiber structures. Dimensionless groups representing the deviation of variational bounds from our simulation results vary in practically the same range as the corresponding values reported earlier for beds of spherical particles. A universal scaling expression of the literature relating the mean survival time to structural properties [S. Torquato and C. L. Y. Yeong, J. Chem. Phys. 106, 8814 (1997)] agrees very well with our results for all examined fiber structures, thus validated for the first time for porous media formed by partially overlapping particles. The permeability behavior of partially overlapping fiber structures resembles that of nonoverlapping fiber structures for flow parallel to the fibers, but not for transverse flow, where percolation phenomena prevail. The permeability results for beds of unidirectional partially

  5. Survival, extinction and approximation of discrete-time branching random walks

    CERN Document Server

    Zucca, Fabio

    2010-01-01

    We consider a general discrete-time branching random walk on a countable set X. We relate local and global survival with suitable inequalities involving the first-moment matrix M of the process. In particular we prove that, while the local behavior is characterized by M, the global behavior cannot be completely described in terms of properties involving M alone. Moreover we show that locally surviving branching random walks can be approximated by sequences of spatially confined branching random walks which eventually survive locally if the (possibly finite) state space is large enough. An analogous result can be achieved by approximating a branching random walk by a sequence of multitype contact processes and allowing a sufficiently large number of particles per site. We compare these results with the ones obtained in the continuous-time case and we give some examples and counterexamples.

  6. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  7. [Blood destruction in pulmonary alveoli: signs of vitality and determination of survival time].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehmichen, M

    1984-01-01

    Lungs from 26 cases were examined in which blood was present as a result of a gunshot wound, a stab wound, or aspiration. Signs of vitality and of a time-dependent reaction sequence were evaluated to determine survival time. Only those morphologic criteria were considered that could be obtained on paraffin sections. In addition to H & E staining, siderin was identified with the Prussian blue reaction and the activities were determined of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase, as macrophage marker, and naphthol AS-D chloracetate esterase, as granulocyte marker. The following criteria were evaluated: granulocyte emigration, erythrocyte adherence to the surface of macrophages, macrophage ingestion of erythrocytes, and determination of siderin as indicator of intracellular erythrocyte digestion. Adherence was also observed in those cases that did not survive. The initial sign of vitality was granulocyte emigration, which was observed for the first time after a survival time of 5 min. Erythrophages were found after a survival time of 30 min at least, siderophages after 17 h at the earliest. Literature dealing with vitality and age determination, as well as the pathogenesis of the reaction sequence, is discussed.

  8. An influential factor for external radiation dose estimation for residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident-time spent outdoors for residents in Iitate Village.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Sakata, Ritsu; Ozasa, Kotaro; Hayashi, Masayuki; Ohira, Tetsuya; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

    2016-06-01

    Many studies have been conducted on radiation doses to residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Time spent outdoors is an influential factor for external dose estimation. Since little information was available on actual time spent outdoors for residents, different values of average time spent outdoors per day have been used in dose estimation studies on the FDNPP accident. The most conservative value of 24 h was sometimes used, while 2.4 h was adopted for indoor workers in the UNSCEAR 2013 report. Fukushima Medical University has been estimating individual external doses received by residents as a part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey by collecting information on the records of moves and activities (the Basic Survey) after the accident from each resident. In the present study, these records were analyzed to estimate an average time spent outdoors per day. As an example, in Iitate Village, its arithmetic mean was 2.08 h (95% CI: 1.64-2.51) for a total of 170 persons selected from respondents to the Basic Survey. This is a much smaller value than commonly assumed. When 2.08 h is used for the external dose estimation, the dose is about 25% (23-26% when using the above 95% CI) less compared with the dose estimated for the commonly used value of 8 h.

  9. Time-course regulation of survival pathways by epicatechin on HepG2 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granado-Serrano, Ana Belén; Angeles Martín, María; Goya, Luis; Bravo, Laura; Ramos, Sonia

    2009-02-01

    Polyphenols, such as epicatechin, have been reported to exhibit a wide range of biological activities. The objective of the present study was to investigate the time-dependent regulation by epicatechin of survival/proliferation pathways in HepG2 cells. Treatment of HepG2 cells with 10 micromol/L epicatechin did not result in any cell damage up to 18 h, as evaluated by the lactate dehydrogenase assay. Moreover, the enhanced cell death evoked by an oxidative stress induced with tert-butyl hydroperoxide was prevented in the cells pretreated 4 or 18 h with epicatechin. Epicatechin-induced survival was a rapid event that was accompanied by early and sustained activation of major survival signaling proteins, such as AKT/phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase and extracellular-regulated kinase (activated from 5 min to 18 h), as well as protein kinase C (PKC)-alpha (30 min to 18 h), in concert with unaltered c-jun N-amino terminal kinase levels and early inactivation of key death-related signals like PKC-delta (5 min to 18 h). Additionally, reactive oxygen species generation was transiently reduced when cells were treated with 10 micromol/L epicatechin (15-240 min). These data suggest that epicatechin induces cellular survival through a tight regulation of survival/proliferation pathways that requires the integration of different signals and persists over time, the ultimate effect on HepG2 cells being regulated by the balance among these signals.

  10. Real-time management (RTM) by cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) for risk analysis of Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Hyo Sung [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; Woo, Tae Ho [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; The Cyber Univ. of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical and Control Engineering

    2017-03-15

    The earthquake and tsunami induced accident of nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima disaster is investigated by the real-time management (RTM) method. This non-linear logic of the safety management is applied to enhance the methodological confidence in the NPP reliability. The case study of the earthquake is modeled for the fast reaction characteristics of the RTM. The system dynamics (SD) modeling simulations and cloud computing are applied for the RTM method where the real time simulation has the fast and effective communication for the accident remediation and prevention. Current tablet computing system can improve the safety standard of the NPP. Finally, the procedure of the cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) modeling is constructed.

  11. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  12. Parental Monitoring during Early Adolescence Deters Adolescent Sexual Initiation: Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, David Y. C.; Murphy, Debra A.; Hser, Yih-Ing

    2011-01-01

    We used discrete-time survival mixture modeling to examine 5,305 adolescents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth regarding the impact of parental monitoring during early adolescence (ages 14-16) on initiation of sexual intercourse and problem behavior engagement (ages 14-23). Four distinctive parental-monitoring groups were…

  13. Effect of bifidobacteria implantation on the survival time of whole-body irradiated mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokokura, T.; Onoue, M.; Mutai, M. (Yakult Institute for Microbiological Research)

    1980-01-01

    Letahl dose (2 KR) of gamma-ray was irradiated on the whole bodies of mice. Survival time after irradiation was significantly longer in mice with administration of both Bifidobacterium breve YIT 4008 and transgalactosyl oligosaccharide than in mice with administration of either of the two or nothing.

  14. Survival trees for left-truncated and right-censored data, with application to time-varying covariate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Wei; Simonoff, Jeffrey S

    2016-12-26

    SUMMARYTree methods (recursive partitioning) are a popular class of nonparametric methods for analyzing data. One extension of the basic tree methodology is the survival tree, which applies recursive partitioning to censored survival data. There are several existing survival tree methods in the literature, which are mainly designed for right-censored data. We propose two new survival trees for left-truncated and right-censored (LTRC) data, which can be seen as a generalization of the traditional survival tree for right-censored data. Further, we show that such trees can be used to analyze survival data with time-varying covariates, essentially building a time-varying covariates survival tree. Implementation of the methods is easy, and simulations and real data analysis results show that the proposed methods work well for LTRC data and survival data with time-varying covariates, respectively.

  15. A multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dan; Rollins, Katie; Coughlin, Patrick

    2014-09-01

    Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and we compare the results to those obtained from standard methodologies. Our method uses exact binomial within-study distributions and enforces the constraints that both the study specific and the overall mortality rates must not decrease over time. We directly model the probabilities of mortality at each time point, which are the quantities of primary clinical interest. We also present I(2) statistics that quantify the impact of the between-study heterogeneity, which is very considerable in our data set.

  16. Genomic prediction of survival time in a population of brown laying hens showing cannibalistic behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemu, Setegn W; Calus, Mario P L; Muir, William M; Peeters, Katrijn; Vereijken, Addie; Bijma, Piter

    2016-09-13

    Mortality due to cannibalism causes both economic and welfare problems in laying hens. To limit mortality due to cannibalism, laying hens are often beak-trimmed, which is undesirable for animal welfare reasons. Genetic selection is an alternative strategy to increase survival and is more efficient by taking heritable variation that originates from social interactions into account, which are modelled as the so-called indirect genetic effects (IGE). Despite the considerable heritable variation in survival time due to IGE, genetic improvement of survival time in laying hens is still challenging because the detected heritable variation of the trait with IGE is still limited, ranging from 0.06 to 0.26, and individuals that are still alive at the end of the recording period are censored. Furthermore, survival time records are available late in life and only on females. To cope with these challenges, we tested the hypothesis that genomic prediction increases the accuracy of estimated breeding values (EBV) compared to parental average EBV, and increases response to selection for survival time compared to a traditional breeding scheme. We tested this hypothesis in two lines of brown layers with intact beaks, which show cannibalism, and also the hypothesis that the rate of inbreeding per year is lower for genomic selection than for the traditional breeding scheme. The standard deviation of genomic prediction EBV for survival time was around 22 days for both lines, indicating good prospects for selection against mortality in laying hens with intact beaks. Genomic prediction increased the accuracy of the EBV by 35 and 32 % compared to the parent average EBV for the two lines. At the current reference population size, predicted response to selection was 91 % higher when using genomic selection than with the traditional breeding scheme, as a result of a shorter generation interval in males and greater accuracy of selection in females. The predicted rate of inbreeding per

  17. The L(1/2) regularization approach for survival analysis in the accelerated failure time model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Hua; Liang, Yong; Liu, Xiao-Ying

    2015-09-01

    The analysis of high-dimensional and low-sample size microarray data for survival analysis of cancer patients is an important problem. It is a huge challenge to select the significantly relevant bio-marks from microarray gene expression datasets, in which the number of genes is far more than the size of samples. In this article, we develop a robust prediction approach for survival time of patient by a L(1/2) regularization estimator with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The L(1/2) regularization could be seen as a typical delegate of L(q)(0regularization methods and it has shown many attractive features. In order to optimize the problem of the relevant gene selection in high-dimensional biological data, we implemented the L(1/2) regularized AFT model by the coordinate descent algorithm with a renewed half thresholding operator. The results of the simulation experiment showed that we could obtain more accurate and sparse predictor for survival analysis by the L(1/2) regularized AFT model compared with other L1 type regularization methods. The proposed procedures are applied to five real DNA microarray datasets to efficiently predict the survival time of patient based on a set of clinical prognostic factors and gene signatures.

  18. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC...

  19. Time Interval Between Endometrial Biopsy and Surgical Staging for Type I Endometrial Cancer: Association Between Tumor Characteristics and Survival Outcome

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Matsuo, Koji; Opper, Neisha R; Ciccone, Marcia A; Garcia, Jocelyn; Tierney, Katherine E; Baba, Tsukasa; Muderspach, Laila I; Roman, Lynda D

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE:To examine whether wait time between endometrial biopsy and surgical staging correlates with tumor characteristics and affects survival outcomes in patients with type I endometrial cancer...

  20. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  1. Warming affects hatching time and early season survival of eastern tent caterpillars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abarca, Mariana; Lill, John T

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is disrupting species interactions by altering the timing of phenological events such as budburst for plants and hatching for insects. We combined field observations with laboratory manipulations to investigate the consequences of climate warming on the phenology and performance of the eastern tent caterpillar (Malacosoma americanum). We evaluated the effects of warmer winter and spring regimes on caterpillar hatching patterns and starvation endurance, traits likely to be under selection in populations experiencing phenological asynchrony, using individuals from two different populations (Washington, DC, and Roswell, GA). We also quantified the proximate and extended fitness effects of early food deprivation and recorded spring phenology of local caterpillars and their host plants. In addition, we conducted laboratory assays to determine if caterpillars are using plant chemical cues to fine-tune their hatching times. Warmer winter temperatures induced earlier hatching and caterpillars from GA survived starvation for periods that were 30% longer than caterpillars from DC. Warmer spring regimes reduced the starvation endurance of caterpillars overwintering in the wild but not in the laboratory. Early starvation dramatically reduced hatchling survival; however, surviving caterpillars did not show detrimental effects on pupal mass or development time. In the field, hatching preceded budburst in both 2013 and 2014 and the period of optimal foliage quality was 2 weeks shorter in 2013. Hatching time was unaffected by exposure to plant volatiles. Overall, we found that warmer temperatures can trigger late-season asynchrony by accelerating plant phenology and caterpillars from different populations exhibit differential abilities to cope with environmental unreliability.

  2. Role of Survival Time and Injury Severity in Fatal Pulmonary Fat Embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarmer, Juliane; Ampanozi, Garyfalia; Thali, Michael J; Bolliger, Stephan A

    2017-03-01

    Pulmonary fat embolism (PFE) is frequent in blunt trauma and may occasionally lead to death. A correlation between fracture grade and severity and PFE grade has been described before, but no correlation between PFE and survival time, fat crushing extent, fat crush grade, or number of body regions with fractures could be noted in this small study. To further examine this, we decided to examine the aforementioned points in a far larger study group.Autopsy protocols of 188 nonresuscitated fatalities with blunt trauma and without right heart injury, which underwent whole body dissection, were retrospectively reviewed concerning the presence and the severity of PFE, injuries, survival time, age, sex, and the body mass index.The fracture grade, the fracture severity, and the number of the fractured regions correlated very well with the grade of PFE, but the crushed regions, crush grade, and crush severity did not. We observed a time correlation between survival time and PFE only in the sense that very rapid deaths were often PFE negative. High-grade PFE was observed most often in patients having died less than 6 hours after the incident, and PFE grades of 2 or more were occasionally noted even after 48 hours.

  3. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  4. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Movahhed

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration.

  5. Features of survived casualties and treatment after " July 23" EMU railway accident at Wenzhou station%“7·23"温州动车事故存活伤员损伤特点及救治分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闻浩; 林露阳; 陈大庆; 吴钒; 朱烈烈

    2011-01-01

    目的 分析“7·23”温州动车追尾事故存活伤员的损伤特点,探讨并分析事故初期伤员的救治策略.方法 以事故后24h温州市各大医院救治的事故伤员为对象,收集伤员的年龄、性别、致伤部位、损伤严重程度等信息并应用创伤评分系统3.0进行分析.结果 事故发生后24h温州市各大医院共收治伤员136例,年龄在2.5 ~69岁之间,男性占55.89%,女性占44.11%;主要以钝器致伤为主;存活伤员中多发伤占79.41%,实质性受伤部位以胸部为第1位、其次是四肢和脊柱;所有伤员均现场急救后直接送至就近医院.结论 直接外力及惯性、离心力引起的钝器伤是存活伤员主要的致伤原因,胸部、四肢及脊柱为主要的受伤部位,对事故伤员救治初期的治疗以抢救生命、分诊和后送为主.%Objective To analyze the features of EMU survived casualties and the rescue during a head -on- rear collision between two EMU trains on 23 July 2011 (" July 23" train collision accident) at Wenzhou station.Methods The casualties treated in many major hospitals in Wenzhou were surveyed within 24 hours after the accident occurred.The data of age,gender,type of injury and injury severity of the wounded were analyzed.Results A total of 136 casualties were treated within the first 24 hours after the accident occurred,and the male patients and female patients accounted for 55.89% and 44.11% respectively,blunt trauma was the main cause of injuries.The percent of multiple injuries in the wounded survivals accounted for 79.41%.The most common injury site of the survived casualties was chest,followed by four limbs and spine.All the wounded were rescued on the spot and were referred to the hospitals with better medical facilities.Conclusions There was no significant difference in gender of the wounded.Blunt trauma was the leading cause of injuries,and the chest,four limbs and spine were the liable parts of body to be

  6. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  7. Genetic Influences on Survival Time After Severe Hemorrhage in Inbred Rat Strains

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-12

    were conducted 24 h postsurgery to minimize confounding influences of isoflurane and buprenorphine on survival time. The half - life for isoflurane (30...detail previously (25). At the end of surgery, rats were injected with buprenorphine (25 g/kg body wt sc) and with 10 ml of 0.9% saline (sc)/400 g body...min, Ref. 22) and buprenorphine (2.1–3 h, Ref. 33) would suggest a clearance from the blood compatible with our assumption. However, one cannot

  8. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  9. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Document Server

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  10. Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-12-20

    Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median

  11. The Fukushima accident; Accident nucleaire a Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delbecq, D.

    2012-02-15

    The Fukushima accident is characterized by a sequence of natural disasters: earthquake and tsunamis that deprived simultaneously 3 reactors from cooling and electrical power for quite a long time. A series of hydrogen explosion has added to the mess. Experts agree to say that certainly nuclear fuel has melt to form corium in all 3 reactors. The accident has contaminated tens of thousand acres of land around the plant and has jeopardized local coastal fishery. The human toll is unexpectedly low: no direct casualty in the population but several suicides among the people that was forced to leave their home. 5 people from the plant staff died certainly from the consequences of the tsunami. (A.C.)

  12. Effects of social isolation stress on immune response and survival time of mouse with liver cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hui Liu; Zhun Wang

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the effects of isolation stress on mouse with liver cancer and possible associated mechanisms.METHODS: Transplantable murine hepatoma22 (H22) model was used to evaluate the effects of social isolation stress on murine liver cancer. Mice were immunized with sheep red blood cell (SRBC) and intraperitoneally inoculated with H22 cell, then divided into two groups, one reared individually as group (Ⅰ) and the other reared in groups as group (G). Titer of antibody to SRBC and interleukin 2 (IL-2) in serum was monitored. The survival time of mouse with liver cancer was observed.RESULTS: The titer of antibody to SRBC in group (G) was 1:24.5 and that in group (Ⅰ) was 1:11.2. There was a significant difference between these two groups (t = 2.60,P = 0.02). A significant difference in IL-2 concentration was observed between group (G) (39.6 ng/L) and group (Ⅰ) (47.1 ng/L, t= 2.14, P = 0.046). The survival time in group (G) (16.5 d) was markedly longer than that in group (Ⅰ) (13.2 d, t = 3.46, P = 0.002).CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that survival time of the mouse bearing H22 tumor is affected by the social isolation stress and the associated mechanism may be the immunological changes under the social isolation stress.

  13. Factors affecting survival time of cholangiocarcinoma patients: a prospective study in Northeast Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woradet, Somkiattiyos; Promthet, Supannee; Songserm, Nopparat; Parkin, Donald Maxwell

    2013-01-01

    Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a major health problem and cause of death among people in Northeastern Thailand. In this prospective study 171 patients newly diagnosed with CCA by physicians in 5 tertiary hospitals in four provinces of northeastern of Thailand between February and July 2011 were followed up to January 2012. The outcome was survival time from diagnosis to death. A total of 758.4 person-months of follow-up were available. The mortality rate was 16.9 per 100 person-months (95%CI: 14.1-20.1). The median survival time among CCA patients was 4.3 months (95%CI: 3.3-5.1). Cox's proportional hazard model was used to study the independent effects of factors affecting survival time among patients. Statistically significant factors included advanced stage at diagnosis (HR: 2.5, 95%CI: 1.7-3.8), presentation with jaundice (HR: 1.7, 95%CI: 1.1-2.4) or ascites (HR: 2.8, 95%CI: 1.8-4.4), and positive serum carcinoembryonic antigen (HR: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.2-4.3). Patients who had received standard treatment had a better prognosis that those who did not (HR: 0.5, 95%CI: 0.3-0.7).

  14. PEGylated dendritic nanoarchitechture improves mean survival time of BDF1mice bearing myelogenous k -562 leukemia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ramadoss Karthikeyan; Pureti Madhu Kumar; Palanirajan Vijayaraj Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Objective:To developing and exploring the use ofPEGylated poly(propylene imine) dendritic architecture for the delivery of an anti leukemic activity ofPrednisolone.Methods:For this study,PEGylated poly(propylene imine) dendritic architecture was synthesized and loaded with Prednisolone and targeted to the ascetic form of myelogenous leukemia k-562 cellines in hybrid miceBDF1, was used as tumor model.Theantileukemic activity was assessed by use of the criterionT/C%, whereT was the mean survival time(MST, days) of the drug treated mice, bearing k-562 leukemia andC- the mean survival time(MST, days) of untreated control animals, bearing the same leukemia cellines.Results:An antileukemic activity of the studiedPrednisolone loaded PEGylatedPolypropyleneimine(PPI) dendrimer was found to have increasing the mean survival time of the k-562 myelogenous leukemia cellines bearingBDF1 mice.The criterion“increase of life span”(ILS%) reached maximally270.1% for the drug loaded dendrimer.Conclusion:The studied dendrimer withPrednisolone showed lower toxicity with improved antileukemic activity in comparison with freePrednisolone.The further experiments in this field are in progress, aiming to design better dendritic formulations, with potential clinical use.

  15. Survival analysis of car travel time near a bus stop in developing countries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG XiaoBao; GAO ZiYou; GUO HongWei; HUAN Mei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an important investigation into car travel time affected by mixed traffic flow near a bus stop on the basis of survival analysis theory.Travel time data associated with mixed traffic characteristics near a bus stop were collected by video cameras.A hazard-based duration model was introduced to analyze the effects of mixed traffic flow on car travel time.The results indicate that mixed traffic flow impacts car travel time significantly.And the presence of bus berthing violation would delay car travel time.The proposed model can be used to forecast temporal shifts in car travel time due to changes in mixed traffic flow.The influential factors related to mixed traffic flow should be given full consideration in the planning and designing of bus stops in developing countries.

  16. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea.

  17. Iodine isotopes in precipitation: Four-year time series variations before and after 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sheng; Zhang, Luyuan; Freeman, Stewart P H T; Hou, Xiaolin; Watanabe, Akira; Sanderson, David C W; Cresswell, Alan; Yamaguchi, Katsuhiko

    2016-05-01

    Rainwater samples were collected monthly from Fukushima, Japan, in 2012-2014 and analysed for (127)I and (129)I. These are combined with previously reported data to investigate atmospheric levels and behaviour of Fukushima-derived (129)I before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. In the new datasets, (127)I and (129)I concentrations between October 2012 and October 2014 varied from 0.5 to 10 μg/L and from 1.2 × 10(8) to 6.9 × 10(9) atoms/L respectively, resulting in (129)I/(127)I atomic ratio ranges from 3 × 10(-8) to 2 × 10(-7). The (127)I concentrations were in good agreement with those in the previous period from March 2011 to September 2012, whereas the (129)I concentrations and (129)I/(127)I ratios followed declining trends since the accident. Although (129)I concentrations in five samples during the period of 2013-2014 have approached the pre-accident levels, (129)I concentrations in most samples remained higher values in winter and spring-summer. The high (129)I levels in winter and spring-summer are most likely attributed to local resuspension of the Fukushima-derived radionuclide-bearing fine soil particles deposited on land surfaces, and re-emission through vegetation taking up (129)I from contaminated soil and water, respectively. Long-term declining rate suggests that contribution of the Fukushima-derived (129)I to the atmosphere would become less since 2014.

  18. Effect of timing of postoperative chemotherapy on survival of dogs with osteosarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, J; Gebhardt, M C; Rand, W M

    1997-04-01

    After excision of primary tumors, initiation of chemotherapy for micrometastases is often delayed for 2 to 4 weeks to permit patient recovery and early healing of the surgical wound. However, studies using murine tumors have indicated that removal of a primary tumor may cause increased cell proliferation within micrometastases during the first 7 to 10 days after surgery, potentially rendering the micrometastases more susceptible to chemotherapy. Clinical trials assessing the value of early postoperative initiation of chemotherapy for human breast carcinoma have yielded conflicting results. Osteosarcoma of dogs is a naturally occurring model for human tumors likely to have micrometastases at the time of diagnosis. Before surgery, 102 dogs with osteosarcoma were randomized to receive cisplatin and doxorubicin chemotherapy beginning either 2 days or 10 days after amputation. Survival analysis was performed for each treatment group and for a historic control group comprised of 162 dogs treated by amputation alone. Median survival times for dogs treated by amputation alone and for dogs receiving chemotherapy beginning 2 or 10 days after surgery were 5.5, 11.5, and 11.0 months, respectively. Survival was significantly longer for each of the two groups of dogs receiving chemotherapy than for control dogs (P < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in survival between treatment groups (P = 0.727). These results do not disprove the theory that removal of a primary tumor alters the growth kinetics of metastases, but do imply that there is no substantial advantage to early postoperative initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy for spontaneous tumors of large species.

  19. Association of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival according to ambulance response-times after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective...... was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. METHODS: We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used...... to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. RESULTS: With increasing response times, adjusted...

  20. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  1. Nest survival patterns in Eurasian Bittern: effect of nest age, time and habitat variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Polak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Determining the key factors affecting the reproductive success of nesting birds is crucial in order to better understand the population dynamics of endangered species and to introduce effective conservation programmes for them. Inhabiting a variety of wetland habitats, aquatic birds actively select safe nesting sites so as to protect their nests against predators. The main aim of the present work was to assess the effect of temporal and habitat variables on the daily nest survival rate of Eurasian Bitterns colonizing semi–natural fishpond habitat in eastern Poland. MARK software was used for the modelling. Eurasian Bittern nests were most vulnerable to depredation at the beginning of the breeding season. This was probably because the reedbed vegetation at this time was not yet dense enough to effectively conceal the nests. There was a positive relationship between nest age and the daily survival rate. Two of the habitat variables analysed were of the greatest significance: water depth and vegetation density. In the Eurasian Bittern population studied here, nests built over deep water and in dense vegetation had the best chances of survival. The results of this work may be useful in the preparation of plans for the conservation and management of populations of this rare and endangered species. Conservation and restoration efforts that attempt to maintain high water levels will be especially beneficial to this avian species that is dependent on wetland ecosystems for breeding.

  2. A Parallelized Pumpless Artificial Placenta System Significantly Prolonged Survival Time in a Preterm Lamb Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Yuichiro; Matsuda, Tadashi; Usuda, Haruo; Watanabe, Shimpei; Kitanishi, Ryuta; Saito, Masatoshi; Hanita, Takushi; Kobayashi, Yoshiyasu

    2016-05-01

    An artificial placenta (AP) is an arterio-venous extracorporeal life support system that is connected to the fetal circulation via the umbilical vasculature. Previously, we published an article describing a pumpless AP system with a small priming volume. We subsequently developed a parallelized system, hypothesizing that the reduced circuit resistance conveyed by this modification would enable healthy fetal survival time to be prolonged. We conducted experiments using a premature lamb model to test this hypothesis. As a result, the fetal survival period was significantly prolonged (60.4 ± 3.8 vs. 18.2 ± 3.2 h, P < 0.01), and circuit resistance and minimal blood lactate levels were significantly lower in the parallel circuit group, compared with our previous single circuit group. Fetal physiological parameters remained stable until the conclusion of the experiments. In summary, parallelization of the AP system was associated with reduced circuit resistance and lactate levels and allowed preterm lamb fetuses to survive for a significantly longer period when compared with previous studies.

  3. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  4. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  5. Does prehospital time affect survival of major trauma patients where there is no prehospital care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S B Dharap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Survival after major trauma is considered to be time dependent. Efficient prehospital care with rapid transport is the norm in developed countries, which is not available in many lower middle and low-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prehospital time and primary treatment given on survival of major trauma patients in a setting without prehospital care. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out in a university hospital in Mumbai, from January to December 2014. The hospital has a trauma service but no organized prehospital care or defined interhospital transfer protocols. All patients with life- and/or limb-threatening injuries were included in the study. Injury time and arrival time were noted and the interval was defined as “prehospital time” for the directly arriving patients and as “time to tertiary care” for those transferred. Primary outcome measure was in-hospital death (or discharge. Results: Of 1181 patients, 352 were admitted directly from the trauma scene and 829 were transferred from other hospitals. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, mechanism and mode of injury, shock, Glasgow Coma Score <9, Injury Severity Score ≥16, need for intubation, and ventilatory support on arrival; but neither with prehospital time nor with time to tertiary care. Transferred patients had a significantly higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.869, 95% confidence interval = 1.233–2.561, P = 0.005 despite fewer patients with severe injury. Two hundred and ninety-four (35% of these needed airway intervention while 108 (13% needed chest tube insertion on arrival to the trauma unit suggesting inadequate care at primary facility. Conclusion: Mortality is not associated with prehospital time but with transfers from primary care; probably due to deficient care. To improve survival after major trauma, enhancement of resources for resuscitation and capacity building of on

  6. Nutritional status of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis undergoing liver transplantation: time trends and impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singal, Ashwani K; Kamath, Patrick S; Francisco Ziller, Nickie; DiCecco, Sara; Shoreibah, M; Kremers, Walter; Charlton, Michael R; Heimbach, Julie K; Watt, Kymberly D; Shah, Vijay H

    2013-08-01

    Alcoholic cirrhotics evaluated for liver transplantation are frequently malnourished or obese. We analyzed alcoholic cirrhotics undergoing transplantation to examine time trends of nutrition/weight, transplant outcome, and effects of concomitant hepatitis C virus (HCV) and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nutrition and transplant outcomes were reviewed for alcoholic cirrhosis with/without HCV/HCC. Malnutrition was defined by subjective global assessment. Body mass index (BMI) classified obesity. A total of 261 patients receiving transplants were separated (1988-2000, 2001-2006, and 2007-2011) to generate similar size cohorts. Mean BMI for the whole cohort was 28 ± 6 with 68% classified as overweight/obese. Mean BMI did not vary among cohorts and was not affected by HCV/HCC. While prevalence of malnutrition did not vary among cohorts, it was lower in patients with HCV/HCC (P graft/patient survival was 90% and not impacted by time period, HCV/HCC, or malnutrition after adjusting for demographics and model end-stage liver disease (MELD). Alcoholic cirrhotics undergoing transplantation are malnourished yet frequently overweight/obese. Among patients selected for transplantation, 1-year post-transplant graft/patient survival is excellent, have not changed over time, and do not vary by nutrition/BMI. Our findings support feasibility of liver transplantation for alcoholic cirrhotics with obesity and malnutrition.

  7. Space-time Bayesian survival modeling of chronic wasting disease in deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hae-Ryoung; Lawson, Andrew

    2009-09-01

    The primary objectives of this study are to describe the spatial and temporal variation in disease prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD), to assess the effect of demographic factors such as age and sex on disease prevalence and to model the disease clustering effects over space and time. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical survival model where latent parameters capture temporal and spatial trends in disease incidence, incorporating several individual covariates and random effects. The model is applied to a data set which consists of 65085 harvested deer in Wisconsin from 2002 to 2006. We found significant sex effects, spatial effects, temporal effects and spatio-temporal interacted effects in CWD infection in deer in Wisconsin. The risk of infection for male deer was significantly higher than that of female deer, and CWD has been significantly different over space, time, and space and time based on the harvest samples.

  8. Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Background: Stroke is the second most common cause of death worldwide. Only one treatment for acute ischemic stroke is currently available, thrombolysis with rt-PA, but it is limited in its use. Many efforts have been invested in order to find additive treatments, without success.A multitude...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...

  9. Temporal Statistic of Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, S.; Yalcin, M.; Yilmaz, M.; Korkmaz Takim, A.

    2015-10-01

    Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  10. TEMPORAL STATISTIC OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Erdogan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  11. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the

  12. Unusual effects of some vegetable oils on the survival time of stroke-prone spontaneously hypertensive rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, M Z; Watanabe, S; Kobayashi, T; Nagatsu, A; Sakakibara, J; Okuyama, H

    1997-07-01

    Preliminary experiments have shown that a diet containing 10% rapeseed oil (low-erucic acid) markedly shortens the survival time of stroke-prone spontaneously hypertensive (SHRSP) rats under 1% NaCl loading as compared with diets containing perilla oil or soybean oil. High-oleate safflower oil and high-oleate sunflower oil were found to have survival time-shortening activities comparable to that of rapeseed oil; olive oil had slightly less activity. A mixture was made of soybean oil, perilla oil, and triolein partially purified from high-oleate sunflower oil to adjust the fatty acid composition to that of rapeseed oil. The survival time of this triolein/mixed oil group was between those of the rapeseed oil and soybean oil groups. When 1% NaCl was replaced with tap water, the survival time was prolonged by approximately 80%. Under these conditions, the rapeseed oil and evening primrose oil shortened the survival time by approximately 40% as compared with n-3 fatty acid-rich perilla and fish oil; lard, soybean oil, and safflower oil with relatively high n-6/n-3 ratios shortened the survival time by roughly 10%. The observed unusual survival time-shortening activities of some vegetable oils (rapeseed, high-oleate safflower, high-oleate sunflower, olive, and evening primrose oil) may not be due to their unique fatty acid compositions, but these results suggest that these vegetable oils contain factor(s) which are detrimental to SHRSP rats.

  13. Gene expression profiling of canine osteosarcoma reveals genes associated with short and long survival times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao Nagesha AS

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the

  14. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  15. Research on AIDS patients’ survival time after highly active antiretroviral therapy, treatment effect and treatment modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riying Lv

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To fully define clinical efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy for AIDS, analyze patients’ survival time and treatment mode after receiving treatment, and provide scientific theory to guide improvement of antiviral therapy, this paper selected 3100 cases of patients diagnosed with AIDS during April 2006 and April 2014 as object of this study. All patients were treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy. The main analysis contents of this study include CD4 + T lymphocyte count, viral load changes, incidence of opportunistic infections, specific cause of death and the like. The results show that patients’ CD4 + T lymphocyte levels are significantly increased 3, 18, and 24 months after treatment, difference between the situation after and before receiving treatment, P < 0.05, with statistically significant difference. Analyzed from effective inhibition of virus, effective inhibition rate is 72.58.0% (2250/3100. Main causes of death in patients is usually respiratory failure. It thus can be concluded that highly active antiretroviral therapy for AIDS is with good clinical effect, which can effectively improve survival time of patients. So it enjoys application value of being widely used in clinical treatment of AIDS.

  16. Molecular clock evidence for survival of Antarctic cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales, Phormidium autumnale) from Paleozoic times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strunecký, Otakar; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2012-11-01

    Cyanobacteria are well adapted to freezing and desiccation; they have been proposed as possible survivors of comprehensive Antarctic glaciations. Filamentous types from the order Oscillatoriales, especially the species Phormidium autumnale Kützing ex Gomont 1892, have widely diverse morphotypes that dominate in Antarctic aquatic microbial mats, seepages, and wet soils. Currently little is known about the dispersion of cyanobacteria in Antarctica and of their population history. We tested the hypothesis that cyanobacteria survived Antarctic glaciations directly on site after the Gondwana breakup by using the relaxed and strict molecular clock in the analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. We estimated that the biogeographic history of Antarctic cyanobacteria belonging to P. autumnale lineages has ancient origins. The oldest go further back in time than the breakup of Gondwana and originated somewhere on the supercontinent between 442 and 297 Ma. Enhanced speciation rate was found around the time of the opening of the Drake Passage (c. 31-45 Ma) with beginning of glaciations (c. 43 Ma). Our results, based primarily on the strains collected in maritime Antarctica, mostly around James Ross Island, support the hypothesis that long-term survival took place in glacial refuges. The high morphological diversification of P. autumnale suggested the coevolution of lineages and formation of complex associations with different morphologies, resulting in a specific endemic Antarctic cyanobacterial flora.

  17. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  18. Time-Dependence Of The Survival Probality Of Charmonia In Heavy ION Collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petridis, Athanasios; Mah Hussin, Noor Sabrina; Shalaby, Asmaa

    2016-09-01

    The time-dependent Schrödinger equation is used to study the formation of charmonium in heavy ion collisions and its propagation in Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP) and free space. The initial bound (ground) state is computed using imaginary-time propagation in a confining potential. The QGP is simulated with a confining potential of an extended asymptotic-freedom region. The initial state propagates in real time but the charmonium bound state may become fully developed before or after the QGP formation. To this end the formation-time scales determine the kind of potential in which the quark-antiquark pair propagates and may necessitate the introduction of dissociating potentials. The survival probability is calculated versus time for various potential parameters and relative momenta of the charmonium by projecting the interacting wavefunction onto its freely-propagating counterpart. In these calculations the staggered-leap frog method is used with special attention paid to the issue of stability. It is found that charmonium decay is typically non-exponential. Fast moving states Connection with experimental results is done by means of cross-section ratios. It is shown that suppression and enhancement are both possible depending on the time-scales.

  19. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  20. Splenectomy increases the survival time of heart allograft via developing immune tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinguo; Chen, Shuzhen; Wang, Jinju; Zhang, Cheng; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Peng; Ma, Ruilian; Chen, Yanfang; Yao, Zhen

    2013-05-16

    The spleen is an active lymphoid organ. The effect of splenectomy on the immune response remains unclear. This study investigated whether splenectomy can induce immune tolerance and has a beneficial role in cardiac allograft. Wistar rats were used for heart donors. The Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats designated as the recipients of heart transplantation (HT) were randomly assigned into four groups: sham, splenectomy, HT, splenectomy + HT. The survival of transplanted hearts was assessed by daily checking of abdominal palpation. At various time points after transplantation, the transplanted hearts were collected and histologically examined; the level of CD4+CD25+ T regulatory lymphocytes (Tregs) and rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (annexin-v+ PI+ cells) in the blood were analyzed by using flow cytometric method. 1) Splenectomy significantly prolonged the mean survival time of heart allografts (7 ± 1.1 days and 27 ± 1.5 days for HT and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 12-14/group, HT vs. splenectomy + HT, p Tregs in the blood of splenectomized rats was significantly increased within 7 days (2.4 ± 0.5%, 4.9 ± 1.3% and 5.3 ± 1.0% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p increased the rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (day 7: 0.3 ± 0.05%, 3.9 ± 0.9% and 4.1 ± 0.9% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p Tregs in the blood. Splenectomy inhibits the development of pathology and prolongs the survival time of cardiac allograft. The responsible mechanism is associated with induction of immune tolerance via elevating CD4+CD25+ Tregs and increasing lymphocyte apoptosis.

  1. Time from accident to admission to a burn intensive care unit: how long does it actually take? A 25-year retrospective data analysis from a german burn center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiefer, J L; Alischahi, A; Perbix, W; Grigutsch, D; Graeff, I; Zinser, M; Demir, E; Fuchs, P C; Schulz, A

    2016-03-31

    Severe burn injuries often require specialized treatment at a burn center. It is known that prompt admission to an intensive care unit is essential for achieving good outcome. Nevertheless, very little is known about the duration of time before a patient is admitted to a specialized center after a burn injury in Germany, and whether the situation has improved over time. We retrospectively analyzed time from burn injury to admission to the burn intensive care unit in the Cologne-Merheim Medical Center - one of Germany's specialized burn centers - over the last 25 years. Moreover, we analyzed the data based on differences according to time of injury and day of the week, as well as severity of the burn injury. There was no weekend effect with regard to transfer time; instead transfer time was particularly short on a Monday or on Sundays. Furthermore, patients with severe burn injuries of 40-89% total body surface area (TBSA) showed the least differences in transfer time. Interestingly, the youngest and the oldest patients arrived at the burn intensive care unit (BICU) the fastest. This study should help elucidate published knowledge regarding transfer time from the scene of the accident to admission to a BICU in Germany.

  2. Rhein lysinate increases the median survival time of SAMP10 mice: protective role in the kidney

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gang HU; Jiang LIU; Yong-zhan ZHEN; Rong XU; Yu QIAO; Jie WEI; Ping TU

    2013-01-01

    Aim:To investigate the protective effects of rhein lysinate (RHL),a major bioactive constituent of the rhizome of rhubarb (Rheum palmatum Linn or Rheum tanguticum Maxim),against kidney impairment in senescence-prone inbred strain 10 (SAMP10) mice.Methods:SAMP10 mice were orally administered RHL (25 or 50 mg/kg) daily until 50% of the mice died.Senescence-resistant inbred strain 1 (SAMR1) mice administered no drug were taken as control.The kidneys were harvested after animal death,and examined morphologically and with immunochemical assays.The levels of MAD,SOD and GSH-px in the kidneys were measured with a photometric method.The expression of inflammatory factors and related proteins in the kidneys was analyzed using Western blotting.Results:Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL had no effect on the body weight or phenotype.However,RHL significantly prolonged the median survival time of SAMP10 mice by approximately 25%,as compared to untreated SAMP10 mice.Compared SAMR1 mice,SAMP10 mice had a significantly lower level of SOD in the kidneys,but had no significant difference in the MDA or GSH-px levels.Treatment of SAMP10 mice with RHL significantly reduced the MAD level,and increased the SOD and GSH-px levels in the kidneys.Glomerulonephritis was observed in SAMP10 mice but not in SAMR1 mice.RHL decreased the incidence of glomerulonephritis,and significantly decreased the levels of TNF-α,IL-6,NF-κB,collagen types Ⅰ and Ⅲ in the kidneys.Conclusion:Accelerated senescence is associated with glomerulonephritis in SAMP10 mice,and RHL prolongs their median survival time by red ucing the severity of glomeruloneph ritis.

  3. Severe accident analysis using dynamic accident progression event trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakobyan, Aram P.

    In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code [1]. A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a

  4. PSO-Based Robot Path Planning for Multisurvivor Rescue in Limited Survival Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Geng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.

  5. The effect of timing of the first kidney transplantation on survival in children initiating renal replacement therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Geskus, Ronald B;

    2012-01-01

    Controversy exists concerning the timing of the first kidney transplantation for children who need to start renal replacement therapy (RRT). Our aim was to estimate the effect of timing of the first transplantation on patient survival in children, for the first time also taking into account...

  6. Analysis of multilevel grouped survival data with time-varying regression coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, May C M; Lam, K F; Lo, Edward C M

    2011-02-10

    Correlated or multilevel grouped survival data are common in medical and dental research. Two common approaches to analyze such data are the marginal and the random-effects approaches. Models and methods in the literature generally assume that the treatment effect is constant over time. A researcher may be interested in studying whether the treatment effects in a clinical trial vary over time, say fade out gradually. This is of particular clinical value when studying the long-term effect of a treatment. This paper proposed to extend the random effects grouped proportional hazards models by incorporating the possibly time-varying covariate effects into the model in terms of a state-space formulation. The proposed model is very flexible and the estimation can be performed using the MCMC approach with non-informative priors in the Bayesian framework. The method is applied to a data set from a prospective clinical trial investigating the effectiveness of silver diamine fluoride (SDF) and sodium fluoride (NaF) varnish in arresting active dentin caries in the Chinese preschool children. It is shown that the treatment groups with caries removal prior to the topical fluoride applications are most effective in shortening the arrest times in the first 6-month interval, but their effects fade out rapidly since then. The effects of treatment groups without caries removal prior to topical fluoride application drop at a very slow rate and can be considered as more or less constant over time. The applications of SDF solution is found to be more effective than the applications of NaF vanish.

  7. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone.

  8. Time Interval between Trauma and Arthroscopic Meniscal Repair Has No Influence on Clinical Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wal, Robert J P; Thomassen, Bregje J W; Swen, Jan-Willem A; van Arkel, Ewoud R A

    2016-07-01

    Arthroscopic meniscal repair is the gold standard for longitudinal peripheral meniscal tears. The time interval between trauma and meniscal repair remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate failure rates and clinical outcome of arthroscopic meniscal repair in relation to chronicity of injury. A total of 238 meniscal repairs were performed in 234 patients. Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) was reconstructed in almost all ACL-deficient knees (130 out of 133). Time interval between injury and repair was divided into acute ( 2 to  12 weeks). Patients completed postal questionnaires to evaluate clinical outcome and failure rates. Study instruments included Lysholm, Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and Tegner scoring systems. At a median follow-up of 41 months (interquartile range [IQR], 34-53 months) 55 medial and 10 lateral meniscal repairs failed (overall failure rate, 27%). There was a significant higher failure rate for medial meniscal repair (p meniscal repair has no influence on the failure rate. Differences in survival rate of meniscal repair are more dependent on location of the lesion and ACL status, rather than chronicity of injury.

  9. Paragliding accidents in remote areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasching, G; Schippinger, G; Pretscher, R

    1997-08-01

    Paragliding is an increasingly popular hobby, as people try to find new and more adventurous activities. However, there is an increased and inherent danger with this sport. For this reason, as well as the inexperience of many operators, injuries occur frequently. This retrospective study centers on the helicopter rescue of 70 individuals in paragliding accidents. All histories were examined, and 43 patients answered a questionnaire. Nineteen (42%) pilots were injured when taking off, 20 (44%) during the flight, and six (13%) when landing. Routine and experience did not affect the prevalence of accident. Analysis of the causes of accident revealed pilot errors in all but three cases. In 34 rescue operations a landing of the helicopter near the site of the accident was possible. Half of the patients had to be rescued by a cable winch or a long rope fixed to the helicopter. Seven (10%) of the pilots suffered multiple trauma, 38 (54%) had injuries of the lower extremities, and 32 (84%) of them sustained fractures. Injuries to the spine were diagnosed in 34 cases with a fracture rate of 85%. One patient had an incomplete paraplegia. Injuries to the head occurred in 17 patients. No paraglider pilot died. The average hospitalization was 22 days, and average time of working inability was 14 weeks. Fourteen (34%) patients suffered from a permanent damage to their nerves or joints. Forty-three percent of the paragliders continued their sport despite the accident; two of them had another accident. An improved training program is necessary to lower the incidence of paragliding accidents. Optimal equipment to reduce injuries in case of accidents is mandatory. The helicopter emergency physician must perform a careful examination, provide stabilization of airways and circulation, give analgesics, splint fractured extremities, and transport the victim on a vacuum mattress to the appropriate hospital.

  10. Fietsongevallen bij kinderen in Nederland in 1990/1991: tijd voor fietshelmen [Bicycle accidents of children in the Netherlands in 1990/1991; time for cycle helmets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirasing, R.A.; Verloove-Vanhorick, S.P.; Kampen, L.T.B. van

    1994-01-01

    Objective. To assess the possibility of preventing consequences of bicycle accidents. Design. Retrospective study. Setting. The Netherlands. Material and method. The data on mortality and hospital admissions of children aged 0-14 years were analysed. The data on traffic accident fatalities were

  11. Radiological accidents balance in medicine; Bilan des accidents radiologiques en medecine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs.

  12. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (Ptime. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  13. Survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surface of airless bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-11-01

    Rock boulders are typical features of the surfaces of many airless bodies, so the possibility of estimating their potential survival times may provide insights into the rates of surface-modification processes. As an opening point of this study we employ estimates of the survival times of meter-sized boulders on the surface of the Moon based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age (Basilevsky et al., 2013), and apply them, with necessary corrections, to boulders on other bodies. In this approach the major factor of rock destruction is considered to be impacts of meteorites. However another factor of the rock destruction, thermal fatigue due to day-night cycling, does exist and it was claimed by Delbo et al. (2014) as being more important than meteorite impacts. They concluded this on the basis of known presence of fine material on the surface of small asteroids, claiming that due to extremely low gravity on those bodies, the products of meteorite bombardment should leave these bodies, and thus their presence indicates that the process of thermal fatigue should be much more effective there. Delbo et al. (2014) made laboratory experiments on heating-cooling centimeter-sized samples of chondrites and, applying some assumptions and theoretical modeling concluded that, for example, at 1 AU distance from the Sun, the lifetime of 10 cm rock fragments on asteroids with period of rotation from 2.2 to 6 h should be only ~103 to 104 years (that is ~3.5×106 to 1.5×107 thermal cycles) and the larger the rock, the faster it should be destroyed. In response to those conclusions we assessed the results of earlier laboratory experiments, which show that only a part of comminuted material produced by high-velocity impacts into solid rocks is ejected from the crater while another part is not ejected but stays exposed on the target surface and is present in its subsurface. This means that the presence of

  14. Time to benefit for colorectal cancer screening: survival meta-analysis of flexible sigmoidoscopy trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Victoria; Boscardin, W John; Stijacic-Cenzer, Irena; Lee, Sei J

    2015-04-16

    To determine the time to benefit of using flexible sigmoidoscopy for colorectal cancer screening. Survival meta-analysis. A Cochrane Collaboration systematic review published in 2013, Medline, and Cochrane Library databases. Randomized controlled trials comparing screening flexible sigmoidoscopy with no screening. Trials with fewer than 100 flexible sigmoidoscopy screenings were excluded. Four studies were eligible (total n = 459,814). They were similar for patients' age (50-74 years), length of follow-up (11.2-11.9 years), and relative risk for colorectal cancer related mortality (0.69-0.78 with flexible sigmoidoscopy screening). For every 1000 people screened at five and 10 years, 0.3 and 1.2 colorectal cancer related deaths, respectively, were prevented. It took 4.3 years (95% confidence interval 2.8 to 5.8) to observe an absolute risk reduction of 0.0002 (one colorectal cancer related death prevented for every 5000 flexible sigmoidoscopy screenings). It took 9.4 years (7.6 to 11.3) to observe an absolute risk reduction of 0.001 (one colorectal cancer related death prevented for every 1000 flexible sigmoidoscopy screenings). Our findings suggest that screening flexible sigmoidoscopy is most appropriate for older adults with a life expectancy greater than approximately 10 years. © Tang et al 2015.

  15. Long-Time Survival of a Patient with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Soldić

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. It does not cause any symptoms in the early stage, and later symptoms are nonspecific, thus the disease is usually diagnosed when already advanced. In 2008, pancreatic cancer ranked eighth on the list of the 10 most common cancers among men in Croatia and tenth on the list of the most common cancers among Croatian women. Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, with a survival time of only 6–8 months for metastatic disease. Gemcitabine is the standard chemotherapeutic option. Other chemotherapeutic agents include5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. In this paper, we present a case of a patient diagnosed with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, who is still alive and currently receives his fourth line of chemotherapy 5 years after the diagnosis. Following disease progression on gemcitabine chemotherapy, he was treated with chemoradiotherapy which, however, had no effect. We then applied cisplatin monochemotherapy which offered excellent disease control, was well tolerated by the patient and, although somewhat obsolete in this form, showed to be a valuable chemotherapeutic option.

  16. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  17. Correlation of Biological Characteristics of Smolts with Survival and Travel Time, 1987 Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rondorf, Dennis W.; Beeman, John W.; Free, Mary E. (Seattle National Fishery Research Center, Columbia River Field Station, Cook, WA)

    1988-06-01

    The biological characteristics of smolts were examined to determine their effect on estimates of survival in the Columbia and Snake rivers. Freeze branded groups of steelhead trout (Salmo gairdneri) from Lyons Ferry State Fish Hatchery (SFH) and Wells SFH and spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from Winthrop National Fish Hatchery (NFH) were used to estimate survival. Past estimates of survival, using a ratio of test and control fish recaptured at McNary Dam, have resulted in estimates > 100%, presumably due to some unknown bias. Study objectives were to determine if stress and descaling, degree of smoltification, and prevalence of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) differed among test and control groups of fish, thereby biasing survival estimates. 19 refs., 20 figs., 10 tabs.

  18. Constitutive nitric oxide synthase inhibition combined with histamine and serotonin receptor blockade improves the initial ovalbumin-induced arterial hypotension but decreases the survival time in brown norway rats anaphylactic shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellou, Abdelouahab; Lambert, Henri; Gillois, Pierre; Montémont, Chantal; Gerard, Philippe; Vauthier, Eliane; Sainte-Laudy, Jean; Longrois, Dan; Guéant, Jean Louis; Mallié, Jean Pierre

    2003-01-01

    Anaphylactic shock accidents after allergen exposure are frequent. After immunization with ovalbumin (OVA), a common dietary constituent, we evaluated the efficacy of pretreatment with histamine-receptor or serotonin-receptor blockers administered alone or in combination with a nitric oxide synthase inhibitor (L-NAME) on OVA-induced anaphylactic shock in Brown Norway rats. Animals were allocated to the following groups (n = 6 each): control (0.9% saline); diphenydramine (15 mg kg(-1)); cimetidine (20 mg kg(-1)); diphenydramine + cimetidine; dihydroergotamine (50 microg kg(-1)); diphenydramine + cimetidine + dihydroergotamine; L-NAME (100 mg/kg) alone or associated with diphenydramine, cimetidine, diphenydramine + cimetidine, dihydroergotamine, or diphenydramine + cimetidine + dihydroergotamine. Mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), heart rate (HR), and survival time were monitored for 60 min following treatment. The shock was initiated with i.v. OVA. The MABP drop after i.v. OVA was worsened by diphenydramine and was modestly attenuated by cimetidine, dihydroergotamine, or both together. L-NAME potentiated slightly the effects of cimetidine and dihydroergotamine by lessening the initial MABP decrease, but this transient effect was not sufficient to prevent the final collapse or to improve survival time. Decreased vasodilatory (prostaglandins E2), increased vasoconstrictory (thromboxane B2) prostaglandins, and unchanged leukotriene C4 concentrations were contributory to the overall hemodynamic changes. Thus, the combined blockade of vasodilator mediators (histamine, serotonin, and nitric oxide) slowed the MABP drop in anaphylactic shock, but did not improve survival. More studies are needed to understand these discordant effects.

  19. A class of estimators of the mean survival time from interval censored data with application to linear regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    A class of estimators of the mean survival time with interval censored data are studied by unbiased transformation method.The estimators are constructed based on the observations to ensure unbiasedness in the sense that the estimators in a certain class have the same expectation as the mean survival time.The estimators have good properties such as strong consistency (with the rate of O(n-1/2 (log log n)1/2)) and asymptotic normality.The application to linear regression is considered and the simulation reports are given.

  20. Exploration of the possible effect on survival of lead-time associated with implementation of cancer patient pathways among symptomatic first-time cancer patients in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henry; Vedsted, Peter

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Implementation of standardised cancer patient pathways (CPPs) has provided faster diagnosis of cancer. Cancer survival has improved during the same time period. Concern has been raised that the faster diagnosis may have introduced lead-time bias by elongating the period from diagnosis...

  1. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  2. Breast cancer and leptomeningeal disease (LMD): hormone receptor status influences time to development of LMD and survival from LMD diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yust-Katz, S; Garciarena, P; Liu, D; Yuan, Y; Ibrahim, N; Yerushalmi, R; Penas-Prado, M; Groves, M D

    2013-09-01

    Leptomeningeal disease (LMD) occurs in 5 % of breast cancer patients. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors related to survival and time to development of LMD in breast cancer patients. A retrospective analysis of breast cancer patients with LMD, evaluated in MDACC between 1995 and 2011. 103 patients with diagnosis of breast cancer and LMD were identified (one male). The median age at LMD diagnosis was 49.2 years. 78.2 % had invasive ductal carcinoma. Hormone receptors (HRs) were positive in 55.3 % of patients, 47.4 % were human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive and 22.8 % were triple negative. 52 % of the patients were treated with WBRT, 19 % with spinal radiation, 36 % with systemic chemotherapy and 55 % with intrathecal chemotherapy. Estimated median overall survival from time of breast cancer diagnosis was 3.66 years. Median survival from time of LMD diagnosis was 4.2 months. Time from breast cancer diagnosis to LMD was 2.48 years. In multivariate analysis, HR status and stage at diagnosis were significantly associated with time to LMD diagnosis (p < 0.05). In triple negative patients, time to LMD was shorter. In patients who were HR positive, time to LMD was longer. Survival from LMD diagnosis was significantly associated with both treatment, as well as positive HR status (multivariate analysis p < 0.05). In conclusion LMD has dismal prognosis in breast cancer patients. HR status contributes to time to LMD diagnosis and survival from LMD diagnosis. The impact of treatment aimed at LMD cannot be ascertained in our retrospective study due to the inherent bias associated with the decision to treat.

  3. Investigate the role of environmental factors in causing or contributing to underground accidents in gold and platinum mines.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Franz, RM

    1998-04-01

    Full Text Available velocity 53 Distribution of accidents in relation to wet Kata reading 54 Distribution of accidents in relation to heat stress at time of accident compared with norm for workplace 55 Distribution of accidents in relation to changes in heat stress... accidents occurred 64 Distribution of accidents in relation to visibility at time of occurrence compared with norm for workplace 65 Distribution of accidents in relation to changes in visibility immediately prior to occurrence 66 Distribution...

  4. Collagen IV-modified scaffolds improve islet survival and function and reduce time to euglycemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, Woon Teck; Salvay, David M; Silliman, Michael A; Zhang, Xiaomin; Bannon, Zachary G; Kaufman, Dixon B; Lowe, William L; Shea, Lonnie D

    2013-11-01

    Islet transplantation on extracellular matrix (ECM) protein-modified biodegradable microporous poly(lactide-co-glycolide) scaffolds is a potential curative treatment for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Collagen IV-modified scaffolds, relative to control scaffolds, significantly decreased the time required to restore euglycemia from 17 to 3 days. We investigated the processes by which collagen IV-modified scaffolds enhanced islet function and mediated early restoration of euglycemia post-transplantation. We characterized the effect of collagen IV-modified scaffolds on islet survival, metabolism, and insulin secretion in vitro and early- and intermediate-term islet mass and vascular density post-transplantation and correlated these with early restoration of euglycemia in a syngeneic mouse model. Control scaffolds maintained native islet morphologies and architectures as well as collagen IV-modified scaffolds in vivo. The islet size and vascular density increased, while β-cell proliferation decreased from day 16 to 113 post-transplantation. Collagen IV-modified scaffolds promoted islet cell viability and decreased early-stage apoptosis in islet cells in vitro-phenomena that coincided with enhanced islet metabolic function and glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. These findings suggest that collagen IV-modified scaffolds promote the early restoration of euglycemia post-transplantation by enhancing islet metabolism and glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. These studies of ECM proteins, in particular collagen IV, and islet function provide key insights for the engineering of a microenvironment that would serve as a platform for enhancing islet transplantation as a viable clinical therapy for T1DM.

  5. Endothelin receptor antagonist attenuates inflammatory response and prolongs the survival time in a neonatal sepsis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Tatenobu; Hussein, Mohamed Hamed; Kato, Shin; Daoud, Ghada Abdel-Hamid; Kato, Takenori; Kakita, Hiroki; Mizuno, Haruo; Imai, Masaki; Ito, Tetsuya; Kato, Ineko; Suzuki, Satoshi; Okada, Noriko; Togari, Hajime; Okada, Hidechika

    2010-12-01

    To evaluate effects of endothelin receptor antagonist ETR-P1/fl in a neonatal sepsis model. Eighteen anesthetized and mechanically ventilated 3-day-old piglets were divided into three groups. Six piglets received cecal ligation and perforation (CLP group). Six piglets were administrated a continuous infusion of ETR-P1/fl (0.05 mg/kg/h), an antisense homology box-derived peptide with an endothelin A receptor antagonist effect, starting 30 min after CLP (ETR-P1/fl group). Six piglets acted as the sham group. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate, cardiac output, arterial blood gas, body temp (BT), serum nitrite and nitrate (NOx), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and high-mobility group box 1 (HMGB-1) were measured before CLP and at 1, 3, 6, and 9 h after CLP. Cecal ligation and perforation exposure evoked a state of shock and showed deteriorated cardiac output, pulmonary hypertension, decreased MAP, low oxygen saturation, and base excess (BE) with elevated TNF-α, NOx, and HMGB1. ETR-P1/fl administration resulted in higher MAP at 6 and 9 h after CLP, less negative BE, lower mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP)/MAP ratio at 9 h after CLP, and lower TNF-α, NOx, and HMGB-1 compared to the CLP group. BT showed no differences between the groups. Survival time in the ETR-P1/fl group was longer than in the CLP group (18.9 ± 2.3 h vs. 9.0 ± 0.8 h, p model.

  6. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  7. Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

    2002-01-01

    We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

  8. Regulation Plans on Severe Accidents developed by KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyun Tae; Chung, Ku Young; Na, Han Bee [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Some nuclear power plants in Fukushima Daiichi site had lost their emergency reactor cooling function for long-time so the fuels inside the reactors were molten, and the integrity of containment was damaged. Therefore, large amount of radioactive material was released to environment. Because the social and economic effects of severe accidents are enormous, Korean Government already issued 'Severe Accident Policy' in 2001 which requires nuclear power plant operators to set up 'Quantitative Safety Goal', to do 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis', to install 'Severe Accident Countermeasures' and to make 'Severe Accident Management Plan'. After the Fukushima disaster, a Special Safety Inspection was performed for all operating nuclear power plants of Korea. The inspection team from industry, academia, and research institutes assessed Korean NPPs capabilities to cope with or respond to severe accidents and emergency situation caused by natural disasters such as a large earthquake or tsunami. As a result of the special inspection, about 50 action items were identified to increase the capability to cope with natural disaster and severe accidents. Nuclear Safety Act has been amended to require NPP operators to submit Accident Management Plant as part of operating license application. The KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT had first investigated oversea severe accident regulation trend before and after the Fukushima accident. Then, the TFT has developed regulation draft for severe accidents such as Severe accident Management Plans, the required design features for new NPPs to prevent severe accident against multiple failures and beyond-design external events, countermeasures to mitigate severe accident and to keep the integrity of containment, and assessment methodology on safety assessment plan and probabilistic safety assessment.

  9. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures after hip fracture. Therefore, all

  10. Accident Page

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Explosion in Guangzhou Petrochemical On January 16th, 2007 a sewage recovery tank got exploded continually for two times and caught big fire at the No.2 Refinery Department in the Refinery Plant of Guangzhou Petrochemical Plant located in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong province.

  11. The Tokay-Mura accident; L'accident de Tokay-Mura

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andurand, R

    2000-08-01

    On the 30. september 1999 occurred a criticality accident in the fuel fabrication plant of Tokai-Mura in Japan. 49 persons were irradiated but we present the case of the most seriously injured three workers. The radiation doses that would have been received by the three operators near the incriminated container have been evaluated to 17, 10 and 3 Grays. For the operators situated at five meters from the container and that has received three Grays, the first peak of criticality has been estimated at 2.10{sup 17} fissions. The number of fissions posterior to the first peak has been estimated between 4.10{sup 17} and 5.10{sup 18}. In the three cases, the dose received by the organism has been attributed for about 40% to the neutrons and 60% to gamma radiations. The first operator presented an initial intense phase of acute irradiation syndrome. He received a graft of hematopoietic cells given by a sister of him on the sixth day, he was still alive 29 days later during the visit of the Commission, but he was in a coma and died shortly afterwards. The second victim has been equally reached by an acute irradiation syndrome, accompanied by a severe myeloid depression. At the ninth day, he received a blood graft coming from umbilical cord. He recovered a part of his own marrow, platelets excepted. He suffers from intense pains. A survival chance exists. The third victim was in an adjoining room, at about five meters far from the accident. He has been reached, but in a lower extent, by the acute irradiation syndrome and a low myeloid depression, that has decreased after a growth factors treatment. The prognosis is optimist in his case. The fact that patients have survived for the first time such a long time has revealed a very particular pathology of neutrons-gamma mixed irradiation, with an appearance of new medical problems due to the multiple failure of organs. To notice, the week before the accident, stood at Paris the 6. International conference devoted to the control

  12. Interface temperature between solid and liquid corium in severe accident situations: A comprehensive study of characteristic time delay needed for reaching liquidus temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Combeau, H.; Appolaire, B. [Institut Jean Lamour, Departement SI2 M, CNRS - Nancy-Universite - UPV-Metz, Ecole des Mines de Nancy, Parc de Saurupt CS 14234, F-54042 Nancy Cedex (France); Seiler, J.M., E-mail: jean-marie.seiler@cea.f [CEA/DEN Grenoble, DTN/SE2T/LPTM, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2010-08-15

    T{sub liquidus} was proposed as the interface temperature, for various severe accident situations for thermalhydraulic steady state. This proposal was made on the basis of the analysis of solidification front stability in thermalhydraulic steady state for volumetrically heated corium pools and was extended to reactor transients with slow solidification rates that are controlled by the long-term decrease in residual power. The conclusions were corroborated by prototypic corium and variable solidification rates obtained by experimental approaches for corium containing small amounts of silica or none at all. When the concentration in silica increases (approximately above 10 wt%), it was concluded from the experiments that a plane-front situation could not be obtained. The present work offers a theoretical approach to the maximum time delay that is necessary for mass transfer and full phase-segregation in volumetrically heated liquid pools bounded by a crust. It is concluded that full segregation is obtained for in-vessel situations within time delays that are shorter or of the same order of magnitude as the characteristic time for the corium pool to form and evolve to a quasi-steady-state situation. The characteristic time delay for mass transfer associated with simulant material experiments is also determined. Phase segregation can also be obtained for corium-concrete interaction, provided that the silica content is less than approximately 10 wt%. However in the latter case, more complex phenomena occur at the interface due to the interaction with sparging gas (such as porous medium formation) which requires a different model approach.

  13. The accident information and management system CAIRE for real time applications. Das Stoerfall-Leitsystem CAIRE fuer Echtzeitanwendungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenk, H.D.; Kluttig, H.; Witt, H. de; Kistinger, S.; Kruschel, K.P.; Knaup, A.G.

    1992-01-01

    Remote monitoring systems have increased their importance as an inherent part of environmental surveillance installations in the FRG and in other countries. The existing systems in Germany are designed to cover both, routine operation and emergency situations. They provide site specific meteorological data, gross effluent dose rates, and dose rate measurements at on-site and approximately 30 off-site locations in the vicinity of a plant. Based on such telemetric surveillance networks an advanced automatic on-line system named CAIRE (Computer Aided Response to Emergencies) has been developed as a real time emergency response tool for nuclear facilities. This tool is designed to provide decision makers with most relevant radiation exposure data of the population at risk. CAIRE allows the continuous feed-back of current measurements of environmental impacts into diagnostic calculations for bringing measurements and calculations into best correspondence. This is the main advantage of CAIRE compared to conventional emergency systems and it results in both, a consistent actual interpretation of a bulk of single measurements of dose rates and/or activity concentrations, and a more realistic set of model parameters. Subsequently these parameters are used as input data for the evaluation of actual dose commitments and projections of them by means of real-time calculation. A second advantage is a more realistic assessment of the source term if in-plant dose rate measurements are not available due to emissions out of leckages, e.g. In such cases the assessment of the source term can be based an of-plant dose rate measurements located on the ground within a source distance between 200 and 300 m. (orig./HP).

  14. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the w......Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth...

  15. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event response using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Vansteelandt, S.; Tchetgen, E. J. Tchetgen;

    2016-01-01

    of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this paper, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi......-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies...

  16. Predicting the Survival Time for Bladder Cancer Using an Addi-tive Hazards Model in Microarray Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leili TAPAK

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: One substantial part of microarray studies is to predict patients’ survival based on their gene expression profile. Variable selection techniques are powerful tools to handle high dimensionality in analysis of microarray data. However, these techniques have not been investigated in competing risks setting. This study aimed to investigate the performance of four sparse variable selection methods in estimating the survival time.Methods: The data included 1381 gene expression measurements and clinical information from 301 patients with bladder cancer operated in the years 1987 to 2000 in hospitals in Denmark, Sweden, Spain, France, and England. Four methods of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, smoothly clipped absolute deviation, the smooth integration of counting and absolute deviation and elastic net were utilized for simultaneous variable selection and estimation under an additive hazards model. The criteria of area under ROC curve, Brier score and c-index were used to compare the methods.Results: The median follow-up time for all patients was 47 months. The elastic net approach was indicated to outperform other methods. The elastic net had the lowest integrated Brier score (0.137±0.07 and the greatest median of the over-time AUC and C-index (0.803±0.06 and 0.779±0.13, respectively. Five out of 19 selected genes by the elastic net were significant (P<0.05 under an additive hazards model. It was indicated that the expression of RTN4, SON, IGF1R and CDC20 decrease the survival time, while the expression of SMARCAD1 increase it.Conclusion: The elastic net had higher capability than the other methods for the prediction of survival time in patients with bladder cancer in the presence of competing risks base on additive hazards model.Keywords: Survival analysis, Microarray data, Additive hazards model, Variable selection, Bladder cancer 

  17. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  18. Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the w...

  20. Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J

    2014-01-01

    expression. We conducted a large study evaluating FOLR1 expression with survival in different histological types of OvCa. METHODS: Tissue microarrays composed of tumour samples from 2801 patients in the Ovarian Tumour Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium were assessed for FOLR1 expression by centralised...

  1. 基于图像引导的交通事故现场实时测绘方法%Real Time Mapping Method for Traffic Accident Scene Based on Image Guide

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苗新强; 金先龙; 韩学源; 侯心一

    2013-01-01

    In order to meet the needs of mapping the accident scene diagram on the scene for traffic police, a real time mapping method for traffic accident scene investigation based on image guide was proposed. The proposed procedure consists of a transformation which transforms a single photo of the accident scene from perspective image to orthographic image using direct linear transformation method, followed by mapping accident scene information such as vehicles, bodies, fall out objects, braking traces and so on directly over the orthographic image, and finally printing out the accident scene diagram, which needs to be signed by interested parties. A typical traffic accident case was used to validate the proposed method. Compared with the traditional hands-on measurement, the proposed method can not only improve the accuracy of site investigation, but also can considerably reduce the time of on-scene data processing and drawing, which contributes to satisfying the requirement of printing out the accident scene diagram in real time.%为了满足交警现场绘制事故现场图的实际需要,提出了基于图像引导的交通事故现场实时测绘方法.首先根据直接线性变换法将事故现场照片由透视图转换为正投影图像;然后直接在正投影图像上进行车辆、人体、散落物和刹车痕迹等事故现场信息的绘制和相关尺寸的标注;最后实现现场图的打印输出并由当事人签字确认.通过典型交通事故案例验证了该方法的有效性.和传统手工测绘相比,该方法在提高事故现场勘测精度的同时,还能大大缩短数据处理和现场绘图时间,满足实时打印输出现场图的要求.

  2. Studies on the Relationship between Neuroendocrine Cellular Differentiation in Gastric Cancers and Post-operative Survival Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine the ultrastructure of gastric cancer cells by the electron microscope, in order to assess the relationship between neuroendocrine differentiation and post-operative survival time.METHODS NSE, Syn and CgA immunohistochemical labeling was conducted in 168 cases with a common-type of gastric cancer. Electron microscopy was performed in 80 cases with positive immunohistochemical labeling.These cases were followed-up for over 5 years and the post-operative survival data analyzed.RESULTS Neuroendocrine granules were found by electron microscopy in 39 cases. The rate of neuroendocrine differentiation found was 23% (39/168), using routine diagnostic criteria and electron microscopy (REM).The post-operative survival time of gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation was significantly shorter (P=0.0032) compared to those without neuroendocrine differentiation.CONCLUSION It is of significant clinical importance to determine if the neuroendocrine cells are differentiated in gastric cancers. The gastric cancer patients with neuroendocrine differentiation have a shorter post-operative survival time and a poorer prognosis. Electron microscopy is a reliable method of providing a diagnosis.

  3. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  4. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  5. Tutorial: Survival Estimation for Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Coe?cients Using SAS and R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laine Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Survival estimates are an essential compliment to multivariable regression models for time-to-event data, both for prediction and illustration of covariate effects. They are easily obtained under the Cox proportional-hazards model. In populations defined by an initial, acute event, like myocardial infarction, or in studies with long-term followup, the proportional-hazards assumption of constant hazard ratios is frequently violated. One alternative is to fit an interaction between covariates and a prespecified function of time, implemented as a time-dependent covariate. This effectively creates a time-varying coefficient that is easily estimated in software such as SAS and R. However, the usual programming statements for survival estimation are not directly applicable. Unique data manipulation and syntax is required, but is not well documented for either software. This paper offers a tutorial in survival estimation for the time-varying coefficient model, implemented in SAS and R. We provide a macro coxtvc to facilitate estimation in SAS where the current functionality is more limited. The macro is validated in simulated data and illustrated in an application.

  6. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the w......Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth...... dissipation of the compounds in the soil. Found effects were within environmentally relevant concentrations. Care should therefore be taken before allowing these natural toxins to enter soil ecosystems in large quantities....

  7. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A M; Ellers, Jacintha; van Pomeren, Marinda; Krommenhoek, Thibault; Styrishave, Bjarne; Hansen, Martin; Roelofs, Dick

    2012-11-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the woodlouse Porcellio scaber exposed for 28 d. 2-Phenylethyl isothiocyanate dissipated from the soil with half-lives ranging from 19 to 96 h. Exposure through soil showed toxic effects only on survival. The LC50s after 28 d were significantly different at 65.3 mg kg(-1) for 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 155 mg kg(-1) for 3-phenylpropionitrile. A toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) approach, however, revealed that both compounds in fact have very similar effect patterns. The TKTD model was better suited to interpret the survival data than descriptive dose-response analysis (LC(x)), accounting for the fast dissipation of the compounds in the soil. Found effects were within environmentally relevant concentrations. Care should therefore be taken before allowing these natural toxins to enter soil ecosystems in large quantities.

  8. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Christopher D; Huxley, Jonathan N; Green, Martin J

    2014-01-01

    The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level.

  9. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Hudson

    Full Text Available The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period, PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd rather than individual level.

  10. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  11. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  12. Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Grant; Urdinola, B Piedad

    2010-02-01

    Recent studies demonstrate procyclical mortality in wealthy countries, but there are reasons to expect a countercyclical relationship in developing nations. We investigate how child survival in Colombia responds to fluctuations in world Arabica coffee prices - and document starkly procyclical child deaths. In studying this result's behavioral underpinnings, we highlight that: (1) The leading determinants of child health are inexpensive but require considerable time, and (2) As the value of time declines with falling coffee prices, so does the relative price of health. We find a variety of direct evidence consistent with the primacy of time in child health production.

  13. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  14. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  15. Safe time to warm ischemia and posttransplant survival of liver graft from non-heart-beating donors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Shun He; Yi Ma; Lin-Wei Wu; Wei-Qiang Ju; Jin-Lang Wu; Rui-De Hu; Gui-Hua Chen; Jie-Fu Huang

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To explore the dynamical changes of histology,histochemistry, energy metabolism, liver microcirculation,liver function and posttransplant survival of liver graft in rats under different warm ischemia times (WIT) and predict the maximum limitation of liver graft to warm ischemia.METHODS: According to WIT, the rats were randomized into 7 groups, with WIT of 0, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60 min,respectively. The recovery changes of above-mentioned indices were observed or measured after liver transplantation. The graft survival and postoperative complications in each subgroup were analyzed.RESULTS: Liver graft injury was reversible and gradually resumed normal structure and function after reperfusion when WIT was less than 30 min. In terms of graft survival,there was no significant difference between subgroups within 30 min WIT. When WIT was prolonged to 45 min,the recipients' long-term survival was severely insulted,and both function and histological structure of liver graft developed irreversible damage when WIT was prolonged to 60 min.CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that rat liver graft can be safely subjected to warm ischemia within 30 min.The levels of ATP, energy charge, activities of glycogen,enzyme-histochemistry of liver graft and its recovery potency after reperfusion may serve as the important criteria to evaluate the quality of liver graft.

  16. Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis survival during fermentation of soured milk products detected by culture and quantitative real time PCR methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klanicova, B; Slana, I; Roubal, P; Pavlik, I; Kralik, P

    2012-07-02

    Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP), etiological agent of paratuberculosis in ruminants, is able to survive extreme conditions like very low pH (stomach), high temperature (pasteurization) or low temperature (refrigerated storage). Cheese, infant powder milk, cream and other milk and dairy products might thus be considered as possible sources of MAP for humans. The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of two MAP field isolates during fermentation of three different types of soured milk products (SMP; yogurt, acidophilus milk and kefir) under laboratory conditions. Pasteurized MAP-free milk was artificially contaminated with 10(6)MAPcells/mL and survival and absolute numbers of MAP were monitored during fermentation (4 or 16 h) and after six weeks of storage at 4°C by culture and quantitative real time PCR (qPCR). Viability of MAP was determined by culture using Herrold's egg yolk medium and Middlebrook 7H10 with antibiotics, supplemented with Mycobactin J and incubated at 37°C for up to 12 weeks. The absolute numbers of MAP were quantified by previously published qPCR assays targeting F57 and IS900 loci in MAP genome. We herein confirm that MAP can survive pH reduction, however, longer exposure to pH below 4 in SMP seems to be critical because it inhibits growth. Therefore, it is suggested that probiotic cultures that can decrease pH below 4 during fermentation could provide better inactivation of MAP in SMP.

  17. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body. gamma. irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-11-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body ..gamma.. irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice.

  18. Investigation of a fatal airplane crash: autopsy, computed tomography, and injury pattern analysis used to determine who was steering the plane at time of accident. A case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Christian Bjerre; Nielsen, Trine Skov; Nagel, Lise Loft

    2012-01-01

    A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior to the au......A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior...... to the autopsy. The autopsies showed massive destruction to the bodies of the two victims but did not identify any signs of acute or chronic medical conditions that could explain loss of control of the airplane. PMCT, histological examination, and forensic chemical analysis also failed to identify an explanation...... of fatal airplane crashes should be subject to forensic autopsy, including PMCT and forensic chemical analysis. The continuous accumulation of knowledge about injury patterns from “simple” accidents is the foundation for the correct analysis of “difficult” accidents....

  19. The Time-Dependent Transfer Factor of Radiocesium from Soil to Game Animals in Japan after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagami, Keiko; Howard, Brenda J; Uchida, Shigeo

    2016-09-06

    Since the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident, monitoring of tissues from hunted game animals ensures compliance with the standard food limits for radionuclides in Japan. We quantified the transfer of (137)Cs from contaminated land to game animals using the Aggregated transfer factor (Tag = activity concentration in meat [Bq kg(-1) fw]/amount in soil [Bq m(-2)]) of (137)Cs for Asian black bear, wild boar, sika deer, green pheasant, copper pheasant and wild duck, collected between 2011 and 2015. Open data sources were used from Fukushima, Miyagi, Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma prefectures. Our initially compiled data showed that the maximum reported (137)Cs activity concentration in wild boar after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident were lower than those reported after the Chernobyl accident. The geometric mean Tag values (m(2)kg(-1) fw) of (137)Cs in 2015 for Asian black bear, wild boar, sika deer and copper pheasant were similar (1.9-5.1) × 10(-3) while those for green pheasant and wild duck were about 1 order of magnitude lower at (1.0-2.2) × 10(-4). Effective half-lives were 1.2-6.9 y except for sika deer and copper pheasant where no decreases were found. In contrast to the Chernobyl accident, no seasonal change occurred in the meat (137)Cs activity concentrations of the wild animals during the study period.

  20. The medical investigation of airship accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, C J; McMeekin, R R; Ruehle, C J; Canik, J J

    1988-07-01

    A review of the autopsy reports for 18 of 21 victims in 3 of the 4 nonrigid Navy airship accidents during the period 1955 to 1966 revealed that the patterns of injury, complicated by postcrash entrapment, immersion, or fire, are similar to the injuries observed in the low-speed, low-altitude crashes of rigid airships and of light aircraft. With the renewed interest in the development of airships for military purposes, there is a need for improved design related to crashworthiness and to aircrew habitability, safety, restraint, and egress in order to enhance the chance for survival in the event of an accident.

  1. Effect of cooling rate and equilibration time on pre-freeze and post-thaw survival of buck sperm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mushtaq; Nasrullah, Rashad; Ahmad, Nasim

    2015-06-01

    Survival of buck sperm is affected due to duration and temperature of stages of refrigerated or frozen storage. This study investigated interactive effect of cooling rates (moderate; MC and rapid cooling; RC); and equilibration times (0, 2, 4 and 8h) on survival before freezing at 4°C and post-thaw quality of buck sperm. Semen was collected (three Beetal bucks; replicates=6), pooled and diluted with Tris-citrate extender. Pooled semen samples were subjected to either RC (-2.2°C/min) or MC (-0.3°C/min) from 37°C to 4°C in separate aliquots and further equilibrated at 4°C for 8h. Semen was frozen using standard procedure after completion of each equilibration period i.e. 0, 2, 4 and 8h. Semen was evaluated for motility, viability, plasma membrane integrity (PMI) and normal apical ridge (NAR) before freezing and after thawing. The survival time (time for survival above threshold limit i.e. 60%) at 4°C, of motility and PMI was observed 5 and 6h respectively in RC group while >8h in MC group. Rate of decline (slope) in motility and viability was higher (Pbuck sperm is higher when cooled with moderate rate. However, RC can maintain post-thaw sperm viability and PMI equal to MC when equilibrated for 2-8h. The methods should be explored to maintain motility and NAR during rapid cooling of buck sperm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Reply to the Comment on "Resonant Spectra and the Time Evolution of the Survival and Nonescape Probabilities"

    CERN Document Server

    García-Calderón, G; Moshinsky, Marcos

    1998-01-01

    In our paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 74, 337 (1995)], we derived an exact expression for the survival and nonescape probabilities as an expansion in terms of resonant states. It was shown that these quantities exhibit at long times a different behavior. Although both decay as a power law, they have different exponents. In this paper we show that, contrary to the claim in the Comment of R. M. Cavalcanti (quant-ph/9704023), the nonescape probability decay for long times as an inverse power law.

  4. Communication and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the conc

  5. Accidents - personal factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaitsev, S.L.; Tsygankov, A.V.

    1982-03-01

    This paper evaluates influence of selected personal factors on accident rate in underground coal mines in the USSR. Investigations show that so-called organizational factors cause from 80 to 85% of all accidents. About 70% of the organizational factors is associated with social, personal and economic features of personnel. Selected results of the investigations carried out in Donbass mines are discussed. Causes of miner dissatisfaction are reviewed: 14% is caused by unsatisfactory working conditions, 21% by repeated machine failures, 16% by forced labor during days off, 14% by unsatisfactory material supply, 16% by hard physical labor, 19% by other reasons. About 25% of miners injured during work accidents are characterized as highly professionally qualified with automatic reactions, and about 41% by medium qualifications. About 60% of accidents is caused by miners with less than a 3 year period of service. About 15% of accidents occurs during the first month after a miner has returned from a leave. More than 30% of accidents occurs on the first work day after a day or days off. Distribution of accidents is also presented: 19% of accidents occurs during the first 2 hours of a shift, 36% from the second to the fourth hour, and 45% occurs after the fourth hour and before the shift ends.

  6. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  7. Applied the additive hazard model to predict the survival time of patient with diffuse large B- cell lymphoma and determine the effective genes, using microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arefa Jafarzadeh Kohneloo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recent studies have shown that effective genes on survival time of cancer patients play an important role as a risk factor or preventive factor. Present study was designed to determine effective genes on survival time for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients and predict the survival time using these selected genes. Materials & Methods: Present study is a cohort study was conducted on 40 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. For these patients, 2042 gene expression was measured. In order to predict the survival time, the composition of the semi-parametric additive survival model with two gene selection methods elastic net and lasso were used. Two methods were evaluated by plotting area under the ROC curve over time and calculating the integral of this curve. Results: Based on our findings, the elastic net method identified 10 genes, and Lasso-Cox method identified 7 genes. GENE3325X increased the survival time (P=0.006, Whereas GENE3980X and GENE377X reduced the survival time (P=0.004. These three genes were selected as important genes in both methods. Conclusion: This study showed that the elastic net method outperformed the common Lasso method in terms of predictive power. Moreover, apply the additive model instead Cox regression and using microarray data is usable way for predict the survival time of patients.

  8. Wind Speed during Migration Influences the Survival, Timing of Breeding, and Productivity of a Neotropical Migrant, Setophaga petechia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Anna; Rock, Christine A.; Quinlan, Sam P.; Martin, Michaela; Green, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia), that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations. PMID:24828427

  9. Wind speed during migration influences the survival, timing of breeding, and productivity of a neotropical migrant, Setophaga petechia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Drake

    Full Text Available Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia, that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations.

  10. Effects of time interval between primary melanoma excision and sentinel node biopsy on positivity rate and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oude Ophuis, Charlotte M C; van Akkooi, Alexander C J; Rutkowski, Piotr; Voit, Christiane A; Stepniak, Joanna; Erler, Nicole S; Eggermont, Alexander M M; Wouters, Michel W J M; Grünhagen, Dirk J; Verhoef, Cornelis Kees

    2016-11-01

    Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is essential for adequate melanoma staging. Most melanoma guidelines advocate to perform wide local excision and SNB as soon as possible, causing time pressure. To investigate the role of time interval between melanoma diagnosis and SNB on sentinel node (SN) positivity and survival. This is a retrospective observational study concerning a cohort of melanoma patients from four European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Melanoma Group tertiary referral centres from 1997 to 2013. A total of 4124 melanoma patients underwent SNB. Patients were selected if date of diagnosis and follow-up (FU) information were available, and SNB was performed in melanoma-specific survival (MSS). Median time interval was 43 d (interquartile range [IQR] 29-60 d), and 705 (19.9%) of 3546 patients had a positive SN. Sentinel node positivity was equal for early surgery (≤43 d) versus late surgery (>43 d): 19.7% versus 20.1% (p = 0.771). Median FU was 50 months (IQR 24-84 months). Sentinel node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.53-3.97), ulceration (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.58-2.51), Breslow thickness (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.08), and male gender (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.26-1.98) (all p melanoma diagnosis and SNB on 5-year survival or SN positivity rate was found for a time interval of up to 3 months. This information can be used to counsel patients and remove strict time limits from melanoma guidelines. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...... the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how...

  12. Simple parametric survival analysis with anonymized register data: A cohort study with truncated and interval censored event and censoring times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To preserve patient anonymity, health register data may be provided as binned data only. Here we consider as example, how to estimate mean survival time after a diagnosis of metastatic colorectal cancer from Norwegian register data on time to death or censoring binned into 30 day intervals. All events occurring in the first three months (90 days after diagnosis were removed to achieve comparability with a clinical trial. The aim of the paper is to develop and implement a simple, and yet flexible method for analyzing such interval censored and truncated data. Methods Considering interval censoring a missing data problem, we implement a simple multiple imputation strategy that allows flexible sensitivity analyses with respect to the shape of the censoring distribution. To allow identification of appropriate parametric models, a χ2-goodness-of-fit test--also imputation based--is derived and supplemented with diagnostic plots. Uncertainty estimates for mean survival times are obtained via a simulation strategy. The validity and statistical efficiency of the proposed method for varying interval lengths is investigated in a simulation study and compared with simpler alternatives. Results Mean survival times estimated from the register data ranged from 1.2 (SE = 0.09 to 3.2 (0.31 years depending on period of diagnosis and choice of parametric model. The shape of the censoring distribution within intervals did generally not influence results, whereas the choice of parametric model did, even when different models fit the data equally well. In simulation studies both simple midpoint imputation and multiple imputation yielded nearly unbiased analyses (relative biases of -0.6% to 9.4% and confidence intervals with near-nominal coverage probabilities (93.4% to 95.7% for censoring intervals shorter than six months. For 12 month censoring intervals, multiple imputation provided better protection against bias, and coverage probabilities

  13. Dry stress and survival time of Enterobacter sakazakii and other Enterobacteriaceae in dehydrated powdered infant formula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Juncal Caubilla; Forsythe, Stephen J

    2007-09-01

    Powdered infant formula is not a sterile product, and opportunistic pathogens could multiply in the reconstituted product, resulting in neonatal infections. In this study, the generation of sublethally injured Enterobacteriaceae during desiccation and their persistence in dehydrated powdered infant formula was assessed during a 2.5-year period. The study included 27 strains of Enterobacter sakazakii, Enterobacter cloacae, Salmonella Enteritidis, Citrobacter koseri, Citrobacter freundii, Escherichia coli, Escherichia vulneris, Pantoea spp., Klebsiella oxytoca, and Klebsiella pneumoniae. The number of sublethally injured cells generated during desiccation was lower for K. oxytoca, Pantoea spp., Salmonella Enteritidis, and capsulated strains of E. sakazakii than for the other Enterobacteriaceae. The Enterobacteriaceae could be divided into three groups with respect to their long-term survival in the desiccated state. C. freundii, C. koseri, and E. cloacae were no longer recoverable after 6 months, and Salmonella Enteritidis, K. pneumoniae, and E. coli could not be recovered after 15 months. Pantoea spp., K. oxytoca, and E. vulneris persisted over 2 years, and some capsulated strains of E. sakazakii were still recoverable after 2.5 years.

  14. Investigation of a fatal airplane crash: autopsy, computed tomography, and injury pattern analysis used to determine who was steering the plane at time of accident. A case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Christian Bjerre; Nielsen, Trine Skov; Nagel, Lise Loft

    2012-01-01

    A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior to the au......A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior...... to the autopsy. The autopsies showed massive destruction to the bodies of the two victims but did not identify any signs of acute or chronic medical conditions that could explain loss of control of the airplane. PMCT, histological examination, and forensic chemical analysis also failed to identify an explanation...... for the crash. A detailed review of an airplane identical to the crashed airplane was performed in collaboration with the Danish Accident Investigation Board and the Danish National Police, National Centre of Forensic Services. The injuries were described using the abbreviated injury scale, the injury severity...

  15. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  16. Neurogenesis and the Spacing Effect: Learning over Time Enhances Memory and the Survival of New Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisti, Helene M.; Glass, Arnold L.; Shors, Tracey J.

    2007-01-01

    Information that is spaced over time is better remembered than the same amount of information massed together. This phenomenon, known as the spacing effect, was explored with respect to its effect on learning and neurogenesis in the adult dentate gyrus of the hippocampal formation. Because the cells are generated over time and because learning…

  17. The Importance of Bloodstain Pattern Analysis in the Investigation of Road Traffic Accidents: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younis M. Albalooshi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bloodstain pattern analysis has become a field of specialization in Forensic sciences and plays an important role in the reconstruction of events at a crime scene. Research, books, and articles have been published on the analysis and interpretation of bloodstain patterns We present a case study of a road traffic accident in which bloodstain pattern analysis helped us to solve the discrepancy between reports produced by forensic examiners and by the forensic biology department. The case was of a 22-year-old man who died immediately and a 31- year-old woman who survived a road traffic accident. They were both found outside their overturned car and it was impossible to ascertain from initial observations which of the victims was driving the car at the time of the accident. An external examination of the man revealed multiple injuries, and the cause of his death was severe brain injury. The woman survived with a fracture of the forearm, dislocated clavicle bone, and other minor injuries. After initial examination of the car and based on the pattern of injuries the deceased received, forensic examiner concluded that the man was the driving the car at the time of accident. On the other hand, the forensic DNA analysis of bloodstains obtained from the driver's seat matched that of the woman, suggesting that she was the driver. This apparent discrepancy directed the forensic examiner to carry out a bloodstain pattern analysis on the driver's seat. The bloodstain pattern analysis helped resolve the discrepancy and enabled the investigators to identify the driver correctly. This case report emphasizes the importance of bloodstain pattern analysis in the reconstruction of cases involving road traffic accidents.

  18. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  19. OER by survival time for Cf-252, low dose rate Cs-137 and acute Co-60 for LSA lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruyama, Y.; Feola, J.M.; Magura, C.; Onomura, C.I.; Beach, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    RBE and OER were determined for LSA tumor by survival time assay. The RBE/sub n/ of Cf vs. Cs-137 was 5.8 and the OER was --1.4 by experiments performed in vitro and assayed in vivo. When tumor was irradiated in an advanced state in the living mouse, the RBE/sub n/ was determined to be 5.2 vs. Cs-137. The RBE for hypoxic tumor is larger than for the oxic tumor for Cf-252 neutron irradiation.

  20. Influence of application sequence and timing of eugenol and lauric arginate (LAE) on survival of spoilage organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrique, Yudith; Gibis, Monika; Schmidt, Herbert; Weiss, Jochen

    2017-06-01

    The effectiveness of sequential applications of the antimicrobials eugenol and lauric arginate (LAE) was investigated against Staphylococcus carnosus, Listeria innocua, Escherichia coli K12, and Pseudomonas fluorescens. The antimicrobials were applied simultaneously at half of their minimum lethal concentrations (MLC) or sequentially at t = 0 h and t = 3, 4, 6 or 8 h. Bacterial survival was determined by direct plate counts. Survivals kinetic were fitted to a growth and mortality model to obtain characteristic parameters that described time-dependent changes from growth to mortality or vice versa. The most effective was a simultaneous exposure of both antimicrobials to the spoilage organisms at the beginning of the incubation period. Efficiency decreases depending on order and timing of the two antimicrobials were observed upon sequential treatments. These were most effective when antimicrobials where applied within a short time period (3-4 h) and when eugenol was first applied against S. carnosus and P. fluorescens. No sequence effects were observed for L. innocua, and sequential treatments proved to be ineffective against E. coli K12. These results were attributed to cells adapting to the first applied antimicrobial. In some cases, this provided protection against the second antimicrobial rendering the overall treatment less effective.

  1. Decision Tree Model for Non-Fatal Road Accident Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatin Ellisya Sapri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Non-fatal road accident injury has become a great concern as it is associated with injury and sometimes leads to the disability of the victims. Hence, this study aims to develop a model that explains the factors that contribute to non-fatal road accident injury severity. A sample data of 350 non-fatal road accident cases of the year 2016 were obtained from Kota Bharu District Police Headquarters, Kelantan. The explanatory variables include road geometry, collision type, accident time, accident causes, vehicle type, age, airbag, and gender. The predictive data mining techniques of decision tree model and multinomial logistic regression were used to model non-fatal road accident injury severity. Based on accuracy rate, decision tree with CART algorithm was found to be more accurate as compared to the logistic regression model. The factors that significantly contribute to non-fatal traffic crashes injury severity are accident cause, road geometry, vehicle type, age and collision type.

  2. Simple Clinical Score to Predict 24-Week Survival Times in Patients with Inoperable Malignant Distal Biliary Obstruction as a Tool for Selecting Palliative Metallic or Plastic Stents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sripongpun, Pimsiri; Attasaranya, Siriboon; Chamroonkul, Naichaya; Sookpaisal, Theerapong; Khow-Ean, Uthai; Siripun, Aroon; Kongkamol, Chanon; Piratvisuth, Teerha; Ovartlarnporn, Bancha

    2017-01-17

    Endoscopic biliary drainage (EBD) is the mainstay treatment for inoperable malignant distal biliary obstruction (MDBO). Some authorities suggest that metallic stents are more cost-effective than plastic stents in patients with expected survival of at least 6 months. However, studies attempting to define the predictive factors for such survival times are limited. This study aims to develop a scoring system for predicting a survival time of clinical, laboratory, and imaging data were retrieved. The survival time data were retrieved from the medical records and Thailand's civil registration database. Multivariate Cox regression model coefficients were used in the development of a survival time prediction scoring system. Ninety-eight patients were included. The overall median survival was 17.6 weeks. Fifty-seven (58.1%) survived Clinical Score (SCS) was calculated from (2× liver metastasis) + (1× pancreatic cancer) - (2× ampullary cancer) - (1× cholangiocarcinoma), when 1 and 0 were used for the presence and absence of each factor, respectively. The cutoff value of the score ≥0 had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.77 and 0.63, respectively, for predicting a survival time of system from this study may be beneficial for clinicians to select the appropriate stents in endoscopic biliary drainage in inoperable MDBO patients.

  3. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  4. Biomass accident investigations – missed opportunities for learning and accident prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedlund, Frank Huess

    2017-01-01

    selected serious accidents involving biogas and wood pellets in Denmark and argues that such opportunities for learning were missed because accident investigations were superficial, follow-up incomplete and information sharing absent. In one particularly distressing case, a facility saw a repeat accident......, this time with fatal outcome, still without any learning taking place. The paper presents some information on other biomass accidents in Denmark, mostly involving biogas from anaerobic digestion. Details are lacking however, precisely because the accidents were insufficiently investigated and results...... not communicated. The biomass industry needs to pay more attention to safety. Utmost care should be taken to avoid so-called mediashifting i.e. that the resolution of a problem within one domain, the environmental, creates a new problem in another, the workplace safety domain....

  5. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinker, T; Raymond, B; Bijma, P; Vereijken, A; Ellen, E D

    2017-02-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and IGE cannot be estimated using pedigree information, but the combined effect of DGE and IGE is estimated in the total breeding value (TBV). Genomic information provides information on actual genetic relationships between individuals and might be a tool to improve TBV accuracy. We investigated whether genomic information of the sire increased TBV accuracy compared with pedigree information, and we estimated genetic parameters for survival time. A sire model with pedigree information (BLUP) and a sire model with genomic information (ssGBLUP) were used. We used survival time records of 7290 crossbred offspring with intact beaks from four crosses. Cross-validation was used to compare the models. Using ssGBLUP did not improve TBV accuracy compared with BLUP which is probably due to the limited number of sires available per cross (~50). Genetic parameter estimates were similar for BLUP and ssGBLUP. For both BLUP and ssGBLUP, total heritable variance (T(2) ), expressed as a proportion of phenotypic variance, ranged from 0.03 ± 0.04 to 0.25 ± 0.09. Further research is needed on breeding value estimation for socially affected traits measured on individuals kept in single-family groups. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  6. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  7. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  8. Analysis of Accidents in Nine Iranian Gas Refineries: 2007–2011

    OpenAIRE

    AR Shakibmanesh; Bolouri, A.; R Mehrdad

    2013-01-01

    Background: Occupational accidents are one of the major health hazards in industries and associated with high mortality, morbidity, spiritual damage and economic losses in the world.Objective: To determine the incidence of occupational accidents in 9 Iranian gas refineries between March 2007 and February 2011.Methods: Data on all occupational accidents occurred between March 2007 and February 2011, as well as other possible associated variables including time of accident, whether the accident...

  9. Level of neurotic disorders among drivers causing traffic accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Đurić Predrag; Filipović Danka

    2007-01-01

    Different aspects of driver personality may affect traffic safety. Extended driver reaction time causes deceleration of the reflexes, which is a major cause of traffic accidents. Cornell index was used in 30 drivers responsible for traffic accidents, with the aim to measure their level of neurotic disorder and compare them with results of controls (drivers not responsible for traffic accidents). Reaction time was measured and compared among subjects with normal results of Cornell test and tho...

  10. Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burzykowski, Tomasz; Buyse, Marc; Piccart-Gebhart, Martine J.; Sledge, George; Carmichael, James; Lueck, Hans-Joachim; Mackey, John R.; Nabholtz, Jean-Marc; Paridaens, Robert; Biganzoli, Laura; Jassem, Jacek; Bontenbal, Marijke; Bonneterre, Jacques; Chan, Stephen; Basaran, Gul Atalay; Therasse, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Purpose Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progressio

  11. Traffic Accidents on Slippery Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonnesbech, J. K.; Bolet, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Police registrations from 65 accidents on slippery roads in normally Danish winters have been studied. The study showed: • 1 accident per 100 km when using brine spread with nozzles • 2 accidents per 100 km when using pre wetted salt • 3 accidents per 100 km when using kombi spreaders The results...

  12. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  13. Accident resistant transport container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  14. Is there a connection between car accidents, near accidents, and type A drivers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlberg, L; Undén, A L; Elofsson, S; Krakau, I

    1998-01-01

    The authors examined Type A behavior pattern, which has been investigated primarily as a risk factor for coronary heart disease, as a risk factor for car accidents and near accidents. Type A behavior pattern, which is characterized by excessive impatience, competitiveness, hostility, and time pressure, was assessed by means of the Videotaped Structured Interview. One hundred thirty-five Swedish car drivers (66 men and 69 women) were studied: 78 Type A and 58 Type B (that is, not having, Type A behavior). Time pressure was significantly associated with near accidents when age, sex, annual mileage, and urban driving were controlled in a multivariate model.

  15. Survival curve estimation for informatively coarsened discrete event-time data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shardell, Michelle; Scharfstein, Daniel O; Bozzette, Samuel A

    2007-05-10

    Interval-censored, or more generally, coarsened event-time data arise when study participants are observed at irregular time periods and experience the event of interest in between study observations. Such data are often analysed assuming non-informative censoring, which can produce biased results if the assumption is wrong. This paper extends the standard approach for estimating survivor functions to allow informatively interval-censored data by incorporating various assumptions about the censoring mechanism into the model. We include a Bayesian extension in which final estimates are produced by mixing over a distribution of assumed censoring mechanisms. We illustrate these methods with a natural history study of HIV-infected individuals using assumptions elicited from an AIDS expert.

  16. Safety analysis of surface haulage accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, R.F.; Boldt, C.M.K.

    1996-12-31

    Research on improving haulage truck safety, started by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, is being continued by its successors. This paper reports the orientation of the renewed research efforts, beginning with an update on accident data analysis, the role of multiple causes in these accidents, and the search for practical methods for addressing the most important causes. Fatal haulage accidents most often involve loss of control or collisions caused by a variety of factors. Lost-time injuries most often involve sprains or strains to the back or multiple body areas, which can often be attributed to rough roads and the shocks of loading and unloading. Research to reduce these accidents includes improved warning systems, shock isolation for drivers, encouraging seatbelt usage, and general improvements to system and task design.

  17. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    OpenAIRE

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eigh...

  18. [Presence of psychotropic drugs in the blood of drivers responsible for car accidents, and who consumed alcohol at the same time].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staub, C; Lacalle, H; Fryc, O

    1994-01-01

    The presence of psychotropic drugs was determined in 383 blood samples of drivers being responsible for car accidents, having taken alcohol as well. Benzodiazepines were detected in 52 cases and cannabinoids in 31 cases. The characterisation of these positive cases showed a majority of classic benzodiazepines (diazepam, nordiazepam, and bromazepam). Even if the specific role of these two families of psychotropic drugs cannot be deduced from this study, the results should make drivers more aware of the dangers of the simultaneous consumption of alcohol and psychotropes.

  19. Cyclical Fluctuations in Workplace Accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, J.; J. C. VAN OURS

    2002-01-01

    This Paper presents a theory and an empirical investigation on cyclical fluctuations in workplace accidents. The theory is based on the idea that reporting an accident dents the reputation of a worker and raises the probability that he is fired. Therefore a country with a high or an increasing unemployment rate has a low (reported) workplace accident rate. The empirical investigation concerns workplace accidents in OECD countries. The analysis confirms that workplace accident rates are invers...

  20. Survival times of women with metastatic breast cancer starting first-line chemotherapy in routine clinical practice versus contemporary randomised trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thientosapol, E S; Tran, T T; Della-Fiorentina, S A; Adams, D H; Chantrill, L; Stockler, M R; Kiely, B E

    2013-08-01

    Survival times of women starting first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in routine clinical practice were determined and compared with those from a systematic review of randomised clinical trials. We identified women with MBC starting first-line chemotherapy from June 2003 to February 2011 and recorded their demographics, tumour and treatment characteristics, and survival times from the start of chemotherapy. Their survival distribution was summarised by the following percentiles (represented scenarios for survival): 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 25th (upper-typical) and 10th (best-case), which were compared with the same percentiles from our systematic review of first-line chemotherapy trials. The 273 women had a median age of 56 years, and a median time from diagnosis of MBC of 3 months. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status was 0-1 in 80%. Tumours were hormone receptor positive in 69%, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive in 27% and triple negative in 13%. Survival times in months in routine clinical practice (vs the systematic review) were: 90th percentile 4 (6); 75th percentile 9 (12); median 20 (22); 25th percentile 36 (36) and 10th percentile 61 (56). Independent predictors of overall survival included HER2-positive disease (hazard ratio (HR) 0.49, P = 0.0002), hormone receptor positive disease (HR 0.51, P = 0.0004), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1 (HR 0.36, P HR 1.86, P = 0.0002). Median and better survival times in routine practice were similar to those from randomised clinical trials; however, survival times worse than the median were shorter, likely reflecting patient selection in trials. Oncologists should adjust trial-based survival estimates for patients not meeting typical trial eligibility criteria. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  1. Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (扶正抗白冲剂) on Immune Function and Survival Time in Minimal Residual Leukemia Model Mice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许勇钢; 麻柔; 胡乃平; 刘锋; 杨经敏; 马玲; 胡晓梅

    2001-01-01

    To observe the effects of Fuzheng Kangbai Granule (FZKBG) on immune function and survival time in minimal residual leukemia (MRL) model mice and explore its mechanism. Methods: MRL model mice were established by hypodermic inoculation with L7212 cells 1×106 following intraperitoneal injection of cytoxan (CTX) 250 mg/kg 3 days later, and divided into the control group and FZKBG treated group. The changes of T-lymphocyte subsets, including CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+, and the survival time in model mice were observed. Results: Compared with the control, FZKBG could obviously increase both the percentage and absolute value of CD3+ and CD4+ lymphocytes and prolong the survival time of model mice, the prolongation rate being 29.6% - 60.4%. Conclusion: FZKBG could markedly prolong the survival time of MRL mice, and its mechanism might be through elevating the immunologic function and inhibiting the leukemia cells in model mice.

  2. Three-dimensional Nuclear Telomere Architecture Is Associated with Differential Time to Progression and Overall Survival in Glioblastoma Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macoura Gadji

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The absence of biological markers allowing for the assessment of the evolution and prognosis of glioblastoma (GBM is a major impediment to the clinical management of GBM patients. The observed variability in patients' treatment responses and in outcomes implies biological heterogeneity and the existence of unidentified patient categories. Here, we define for the first time three GBM patient categories with distinct and clinically predictive three-dimensional nuclear-telomeric architecture defined by telomere number, size, and frequency of telomeric aggregates. GBM patient samples were examined by three-dimensional fluorescent in situ hybridization of telomeres using two independent three-dimensional telomere-measurement tools (TeloView program [P1] and SpotScan system [P2]. These measurements identified three patients categories (categories 1–3, displaying significant differences in telomere numbers/nucleus (P1 = .0275; P2 ≤ .0001, telomere length (P1 and P2 = .0275, and number of telomeric aggregates (P1 = .0464; P2 ≤ .0001. These categories corresponded to patients with long-term, intermediate, and short-term survival, respectively (P = .0393. The time to progression analyses showed significant differences between the three categories (P = .0167. There was a correlation between time to progression, median survival, and nuclear telomere architecture. Our study suggests a link between patient outcome and three-dimensional nuclear-telomere organization and highlights the potential clinical power of telomere signatures as a new prognostic, predictive, and potentially pharmacodynamic biomarker in GBM. Furthermore, novel automated three-dimensional high-throughput scanning as developed here permits to obtain data from 300 nuclei in 20 minutes. This method is applicable to any cell type and scanning application.

  3. Thresholds and timing of pre-operative thrombocytosis and ovarian cancer survival: analysis of laboratory measures from electronic medical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cozzi, Gabriella D; Samuel, Jacob M; Fromal, Jason T; Keene, Spencer; Crispens, Marta A; Khabele, Dineo; Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia

    2016-08-08

    Thrombocytosis has been associated with poor ovarian cancer prognosis. However, comparisons of thresholds to define thrombocytosis and evaluation of relevant timing of platelet measurement has not been previously conducted. We selected Tumor Registry confirmed ovarian, primary peritoneal, and fallopian tube cancer cases diagnosed between 1995-2013 from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Laboratory measured platelet values from electronic medical records (EMR) were used to determine thrombocytosis at three thresholds: a platelet count greater than 350, 400, or 450 × 10(9)/liter. Timing was evaluated with 5 intervals: on the date of diagnosis, and up to 1, 2, 4, and 8 weeks prior to the date of diagnosis. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for association with overall survival; adjustment included age, stage, grade, and histologic subtype of disease. Pre-diagnosis platelet measures were available for 136, 241, 280, 297, and 304 cases in the five intervals. The prevalence of thrombocytosis decreased with increasing thresholds and was generally consistent across the five time intervals, ranging from 44.8-53.2 %, 31.6-39.4 %, and 19.9-26.1 % across the three thresholds. Associations with higher grade and stage of disease gained significance as the threshold increased. With the exception of the lowest threshold on the date of diagnosis (HR350: 1.55, 95 % CI: 0.97-2.47), all other survival associations were significant, with the highest reaching twice the risk of death for thrombocytosis on the date of diagnosis (HR400: 2.01, 95 % CI: 1.25-3.23). Our EMR approach yielded associations comparable to published findings from medical record abstraction approaches. In addition, our results indicate that lower thrombocytosis thresholds and platelet measures up to 8 weeks before diagnosis may inform ovarian cancer characteristics and prognosis.

  4. Survival times of anomalous melt inclusions from element diffusion in olivine and chromite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spandler, C; O'Neill, H St C; Kamenetsky, V S

    2007-05-17

    The chemical composition of basaltic magma erupted at the Earth's surface is the end product of a complex series of processes, beginning with partial melting and melt extraction from a mantle source and ending with fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation at lower pressures. It has been proposed that studying inclusions of melt trapped in early crystallizing phenocrysts such as Mg-rich olivine and chromite may help petrologists to see beyond the later-stage processes and back to the origin of the partial melts in the mantle. Melt inclusion suites often span a much greater compositional range than associated erupted lavas, and a significant minority of inclusions carry distinct compositions that have been claimed to sample melts from earlier stages of melt production, preserving separate contributions from mantle heterogeneities. This hypothesis is underpinned by the assumption that melt inclusions, once trapped, remain chemically isolated from the external magma for all elements except those that are compatible in the host minerals. Here we show that the fluxes of rare-earth elements through olivine and chromite by lattice diffusion are sufficiently rapid at magmatic temperatures to re-equilibrate completely the rare-earth-element patterns of trapped melt inclusions in times that are short compared to those estimated for the production and ascent of mantle-derived magma or for magma residence in the crust. Phenocryst-hosted melt inclusions with anomalous trace-element signatures must therefore form shortly before magma eruption and cooling. We conclude that the assumption of chemical isolation of incompatible elements in olivine- and chromite-hosted melt inclusions is not valid, and we call for re-evaluation of the popular interpretation that anomalous melt inclusions represent preserved samples of unmodified mantle melts.

  5. Accidents in nuclear ships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oelgaard, P.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10{sup -3} per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au).

  6. Racial Disparities in Colorectal Carcinoma Incidence, Severity and Survival Times Over 10 Years: A Retrospective Single Center Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Hafiz Muhammad Sharjeel; Tetangco, Eula; Shah, Natasha; Kabir, Christopher; Raddawi, Hareth

    2016-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States. Although studies have been performed on malignancy behavior in African Americans and Caucasians, scant data are present on other minority racial groups. Methods A retrospective single center study was performed where 1,860 patient charts with a diagnosis of CRC from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2014 were reviewed. Data collected on each patient included age, gender, ethnicity, primary site and histological stage at the time of diagnosis. Survival time over the course of 5 years was documented for patients from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2009. Comparisons were made amongst different racial groups for the above mentioned factors. Results Study population consisted of 27.09% African Americans, 65.61% Caucasians, 3.86% Hispanics, 0.54% South Asians, 1.03% Arabs, 0.54% Asians and 0.22% American Indians. Mean age of CRC presentation was found to be significantly different (P < 0.05) between the three largest racial groups: 71 years for Caucasians, 69 years for African Americans, and 61 years for Hispanics. African Americans (27.09%) and Hispanics (28.79%) presented predominantly at stage IV in comparison to other racial groups. Caucasians presented predominantly at stage III (24.84%). The rectum was the most common site of CRC across all racial groups with the exception of Asians, where sigmoid colon was the predominant site (30%). Adenocarcinoma remained the predominant cancer type in all groups. Hispanics had relatively higher incidence rate of carcinoid tumor (12.68%). Survival time analysis showed that Caucasians tend to have better survival probability over 5 years after initial diagnosis as compared to African Americans and Hispanic (P < 0.05). Conclusion There is lack of studies performed on minority racial groups in North America. Our study highlighted some important clinical differences of CRC presentation in different racial groups which are not

  7. 33 CFR 150.503 - What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls? 150.503 Section 150.503 Navigation and Navigable Waters... maintenance on survival craft falls? (a) Each fall used in a launching device for survival craft or rescue boats must be turned end-for-end at intervals of not more than 30 months. (b) Each fall must be...

  8. Corrigendum to: “Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: a re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001” [Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 (2011) 1245–1251].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to the previously published paper: “Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: A re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001” [Accid. Anal. Prev. (2011) 1245–1251]. This corrigendum was prepared to correct errors in data and analysis in the previously published paper. Like the previously published paper, this paper confirms that the meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy reported by Attewell, Glase and McFadden (Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2001, 345–352) was influenced by publication bias and time-trend bias that was not controlled for. As a result, the analysis reported inflated estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets. This paper presents a re-analysis of the study. The re-analysis included: (1) Ensuring the inclusion of all published studies by means of continuity corrections of estimates of effect relying on zero counts; (2) detecting and adjusting for publication bias by means of the trim-and-fill method; (3) detecting and trying to account for a time-trend bias in estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets; (4) updating the study by including recently published studies evaluating the effects of bicycle helmets. The re-analysis shows smaller safety benefits associated with the use of bicycle helmets than the original study.

  9. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wotawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean

  10. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Wotawa, G.

    2012-11-01

    Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0-13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1-24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0-13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols

  11. Prolonged survival time of sarcoma 180-bearing mice treated with lipid microspheres-entrapped antitumor marine coral prostanoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, A; Mori, Y; Yamada, Y; Nakaike, S; Hayashi, H; Otomo, S

    1988-09-01

    Antitumor marine coral prostanoids (clavulone II and chlorovulone I) were entrapped into lipid microspheres of 0.2 micron diameter to make lipo-drugs. Daily treatment with lipo-chlorovulone I (1.6 mg/kg/day, i.p.) and lipo-clavulone II (12.5 mg/kg/day, i.p.) on days 1 through 5 markedly prolonged the survival time (135% ILS and 73% ILS, respectively) of mice inoculated with sarcoma 180 as compared with that of a corresponding dose of respective free chlorovulone I and clavulone II. These results suggest that lipid microspheres may be used as drug delivery carriers for antitumor coral prostanoids in vivo.

  12. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ardron, K.H.; Cain, D.G.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions.

  13. Abundance of early functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cells does not predict AIDS-free survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid M M Schellens

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.

  14. Morbidity Caused by Accidents in Children under Five Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariela Dorta Figueredo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Accidents or unintentional injuries are a global health problem. In addition, they are considered as one of the leading causes of morbidity in children. Objective: To describe the morbidity caused by accidents in children under the age of five years in the V Health Area in Cienfuegos. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted in Area V Polyclinic, Cienfuegos, aimed at analyzing the morbidity caused by accidents (from June to November 2008 in children from zero to five years who belonged to consultations 3, 4, 23 and 25 of that health area. The demographic variables, type of accident, cause, place of occurrence, adult presence at the time of the accident, request for medical assistance, as well as risk factors were analyzed. Results: 40.2% of the population studied had accidents and the accident frequency rate reached 48.2%. Children aged two, three and less than one year were the most affected as well as males. Falls, burns and foreign body aspiration were the most frequent accidents, occurring mostly at home. Conclusions: Unfortunately adults are not doing everything possible to reduce the occurrence of accidents. They need to be more active in the child vigilance and the elimination of potential triggering factors of the accident.

  15. Survival analysis on aggregate data to assess time to sero-conversion after experimental infection with Bovine Leukemia virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monti, G E; Frankena, K

    2005-05-10

    Bovine Leukemia virus (BLV) is a ubiquitous retrovirus that affects mainly cattle. Knowledge of the precise moment of infection is fundamental for identification and evaluation of factors related to BLV transmission. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses provide good evidence on the effects of medical interventions. The objectives were to estimate time to sero-conversion after experimental infection using data from retrieved literature and to detect factors that may influence the length of that interval using survival analysis on pooled data. An analysis using aggregate data from 36 studies totalling 438 observations was performed. From this, four sets were created and analysed by interval-censored accelerated failure time models (AFT) with different distributions (exponential, Weibull, log-logistic, lognormal and generalized gamma), and some variants of the Cox model (Andersen-Gill, smoothing splines) with and without a frailty effect. The AFT gamma model fit best and the estimated median time to sero-conversion in the null model was 57 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 49; 75) using all data and 47 days (95% CI: 39; 55) when only studies using experimental inoculation were considered. Some factors were consistently associated with time to sero-conversion. These included exposure by animal-to-animal contact (resulting in a seven-fold increase in time to sero-conversion compared to direct inoculation), diagnostic method to detect sero-conversion (time to sero-conversion was 1.4 times shorter when AGID was used compared to ELISA), and transmission by insect bites (biological media) delayed sero-conversion 2.3 times compared transmission via needles or other inanimate media. After fitting a frailty Cox model, results showed that sero-conversion in susceptible animals after infection using donors, in which presence of virus before the experiment started was confirmed, increased the hazard of sero-conversion two times in comparison with donors in which virus presence

  16. Comparison of survival time and comfort between 2 clear overlay retainers with different thicknesses: A pilot randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yafen; Lin, Jianchang; Long, Hu; Ye, Niansong; Huang, Renhuan; Yang, Xin; Jian, Fan; Lai, Wenli

    2017-03-01

    The objective of this 2-arm parallel trial was to compare the survival times, failure rates, and comfort of 2 clear overlay retainers with different thicknesses (0.75 and 1.00 mm). Eighty eligible participants who had undergone orthodontic treatment at West China Stomatology Hospital of Sichuan University were recruited and randomly assigned to either the 0.75-mm group or the 1.00-mm group. Eligibility criteria included patients with central incisors, canines, and first molars and no systemic or oral disease. The main outcomes were survival time and total failure rate; the secondary outcomes were rates of different types of failure (fracture, loss, nonfitting, and abrasion); tertiary outcomes included patients' comfort levels assessed with a visual analog scale and a health survey. Randomization was accomplished by tossing a coin, with the allocations concealed in sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes, and blinding implemented among practitioners, patients, and analysts. Patients were evaluated at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. A total of 80 patients were initially recruited and randomized (42 in the 0.75-mm group, 38 in the 1.00-mm group); 72 patients completed the study and were analyzed (37 in the 0.75-mm group, 35 in the 1.00-mm group); there were 8 dropouts. Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups. At the end of the 1-year follow-up, survival time did not differ significantly between the groups (46.5 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], -10.3 -103.2; P = 0.111). The hazard ratio was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.48-1.24; P = 0.281). With regard to total failure rate, no statistical difference (P = 0.118) existed between the 0.75-mm group (43.2%) and the 1.00-mm group (25.7%) (risk difference, 17.5%; 95% CI, -4.0%-39.1%). Among the different failure types, we found that fracture rates were significantly higher in the 0.75-mm group than in the 1.00-mm group (P = 0.028), whereas other failure types were similar between the groups

  17. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. ALICE Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The ALICE (point 2) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for ALICE are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the ALICE vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  19. LHCb Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The LHCb (point 8) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for LHCb are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the LHCb vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  20. Studying DDT Susceptibility at Discriminating Time Intervals Focusing on Maximum Limit of Exposure Time Survived by DDT Resistant Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae): an Investigative Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rama, Aarti; Kesari, Shreekant; Das, Pradeep; Kumar, Vijay

    2017-07-24

    Extensive application of routine insecticide i.e., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) to control Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae), the proven vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, had evoked the problem of resistance/tolerance against DDT, eventually nullifying the DDT dependent strategies to control this vector. Because tolerating an hour-long exposure to DDT is not challenging enough for the resistant P. argentipes, estimating susceptibility by exposing sand flies to insecticide for just an hour becomes a trivial and futile task.Therefore, this bioassay study was carried out to investigate the maximum limit of exposure time to which DDT resistant P. argentipes can endure the effect of DDT for their survival. The mortality rate of laboratory-reared DDT resistant strain P. argentipes exposed to DDT was studied at discriminating time intervals of 60 min and it was concluded that highly resistant sand flies could withstand up to 420 min of exposure to this insecticide. Additionally, the lethal time for female P. argentipes was observed to be higher than for males suggesting that they are highly resistant to DDT's toxicity. Our results support the monitoring of tolerance limit with respect to time and hence points towards an urgent need to change the World Health Organization's protocol for susceptibility identification in resistant P. argentipes.

  1. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident – a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wotawa

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Caesium-137 (137Cs and iodine-131 (131I are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe, also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0–13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3–7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and

  2. Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides 137Cs and 131I during the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident - a constraint for air quality and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Wotawa, G.

    2012-05-01

    Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0-13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1-24.2 days during April and May 2011. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0-13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of AM aerosols originating from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3-7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and climate model predictions.

  3. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and Odds of a Fatal Accident in Cirrus Aircraft Crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaziz, Mustafa; Stolfi, Adrienne; Olson, Dean M

    2017-06-01

    General aviation (GA) accidents have continued to demonstrate high fatality rates. Recently, ballistic parachute recovery systems (BPRS) have been introduced as a safety feature in some GA aircraft. This study evaluates the effectiveness and associated factors of the Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) at reducing the odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Publicly available Cirrus aircraft crash reports were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database for the period of January 1, 2001-December 31, 2016. Accident metrics were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analyses regarding odds of a fatal accident and use of the parachute system. Included in the study were 268 accidents. For CAPS nondeployed accidents, 82 of 211 (38.9%) were fatal as compared to 8 of 57 (14.0%) for CAPS deployed accidents. After controlling for all other factors, the adjusted odds ratio for a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed was 13.1. The substantial increased odds of a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed demonstrated the effectiveness of CAPS at providing protection of occupants during an accident. Injuries were shifted from fatal to serious or minor with the use of CAPS and postcrash fires were significantly reduced. These results suggest that BPRS could play a significant role in the next major advance in improving GA accident survival.Alaziz M, Stolfi A, Olson DM. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(6):556-564.

  4. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B{sub 4}C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding

  5. National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

    2013-01-01

    In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

  6. [Drivers of advanced age in traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilban, Marjan

    2002-12-01

    The elderly are vulnerable and potentially unpredictable active participants in traffic who deserve special attention. Longer life expectancy entails a greater number of senior drivers, that is, persons with various health problems and difficulties accompanying old age. At the turn of the millennium, the share of population aged 65 or more in Slovenia was around 13%, and in 25 years it will be near as much as 19%. The share of drivers from this age group was 28% a year ago, and it is expected to reach about 54%. Numerous studies have shown that there are many differences in driving attitude between the young and the elderly. The young are by large active victims, and their main offense and cause of accident is speeding, while the elderly are more passive and their main offense is ignoring and enforcing the right of way. This paper focuses on the differences in the occurrence and type of injuries between the young and the elderly drivers, based on an analysis of all road accidents in Slovenia in the period between 1998-2000. Older people (over 65) caused only 4.7% of all road accidents (16.7% of all accidents involving pedestrians, 11.5% of all involving cyclists, 2.7% involving motorcyclists and 5% of all accidents involving car drivers). Of all accidents, 89.3% were without injuries, and the fatal outcome was registered in 0.4% accidents. Among the elderly (65-74 years of age), however, this share was 1%, and rising to 2.7% with the age 75 and above. By calculating the weight index, which discriminates between minor and severe injuries, and the fatal outcome, it was established that age groups 65-74 and > or = 75 cause three and five times greater damage, respectively than age groups from 18 to 54 years. With years, psychophysical changes lead to a drop in driving ability, which in turn increases the risk of road accidents. It is true that elderly people cause less traffic accidents (and also drive less) than the young, but when they are involved in an accident

  7. Accident investigation of construction sites in Qom city using Pareto chart (2009-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Beheshti

    2015-07-01

    .Conclusions: Employing Pareto charts as a method for analyzing and identification of accident causes can have an effective role in the management of work-related accidents, proper allocation of funds and time.

  8. Predicting patient survival from microarray data by accelerated failure time modeling using partial least squares and LASSO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Susmita; Le-Rademacher, Jennifer; Datta, Somnath

    2007-03-01

    We consider the problem of predicting survival times of cancer patients from the gene expression profiles of their tumor samples via linear regression modeling of log-transformed failure times. The partial least squares (PLS) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methodologies are used for this purpose where we first modify the data to account for censoring. Three approaches of handling right censored data-reweighting, mean imputation, and multiple imputation-are considered. Their performances are examined in a detailed simulation study and compared with that of full data PLS and LASSO had there been no censoring. A major objective of this article is to investigate the performances of PLS and LASSO in the context of microarray data where the number of covariates is very large and there are extremely few samples. We demonstrate that LASSO outperforms PLS in terms of prediction error when the list of covariates includes a moderate to large percentage of useless or noise variables; otherwise, PLS may outperform LASSO. For a moderate sample size (100 with 10,000 covariates), LASSO performed better than a no covariate model (or noise-based prediction). The mean imputation method appears to best track the performance of the full data PLS or LASSO. The mean imputation scheme is used on an existing data set on lung cancer. This reanalysis using the mean imputed PLS and LASSO identifies a number of genes that were known to be related to cancer or tumor activities from previous studies.

  9. Rupture of the aorta following road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom 1992-1999. The results of the co-operative crash injury study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richens, D; Kotidis, K; Neale, M; Oakley, C; Fails, A

    2003-02-01

    The true incidence and survivability of blunt traumatic aortic rupture following road traffic accidents in the UK is unclear. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of blunt traumatic aortic rupture in the UK after road traffic accidents and the conditions under which it occurs. Data for the study was obtained from the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database. Road traffic accidents that happened between 1992 and 1999 and included in the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database were retrospectively investigated. A total of 8285 vehicles carrying 14,435 occupants were involved in 7067 accidents. There were 132 cases of blunt traumatic aortic rupture, of which the scene survival was 9% and the overall mortality was 98%. Twenty-one percent of all fatalities had blunt traumatic aortic rupture (130/613). Twenty-nine percent were due to frontal impacts and 44% were due to side impacts. Twelve percent of the blunt traumatic aortic rupture cases in frontal vehicle impacts were wearing seat belts and had airbag protection and 19% had no restraint mechanism. The Equivalent Test Speed of the accident vehicles, (where equivalent test speed provides an estimate of the vehicle impact severity and not an estimate of the vehicle speed at the time of the accident), ranged from 30 to 110 km/h in frontal impacts and from 15 to 82 km/h in side impacts. Blunt traumatic aortic rupture carries a high mortality and occurred in 21% of car occupant deaths in this sample of road traffic accidents. Impact scenarios varied but were most common from the side. The use of an airbag or seat belt does not eliminate risk. The injury can occur at low severity impacts particularly in side impact. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

  10. Lessons learned from accidents investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuniga-Bello, P. [Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT), Mexico City (Mexico); Croft, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Glenn, J

    1997-12-31

    Accidents from three main practices: medical applications, industrial radiography and industrial irradiators are used to illustrate some common causes of accidents and the main lessons to be learned. A brief description of some of these accidents is given. Lessons learned from the described accidents are approached by subjects covering: safety culture, quality assurance, human factors, good engineering practice, defence in depth, security of sources, safety assessment and monitoring and verification compliance. (author)

  11. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  12. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  13. Post-radiation survival time in hepatocellular carcinoma based on predictors for CT-determined, transarterial embolization and various other parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ting-Kai Leung; Chi-Ming Lee; Li-Kuo Shen; Hsi-Chi Chen; Yu-Cheng Kuo; Jeng-Fong Chiou

    2005-01-01

    AIM: In this retrospective study of unresectable helatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we have investigated the efficacy of CTderived parameters, laboratory measurements, clinical assessment and associated transarterial embolization (TAE) as predictors of post-radiotherapy survival time.METHODS: Sixty-six patients diagnosed with unresectable HCC that had undergone radiotherapy at two medical university hospitals in Taipei were enrolled in the study.Using multivariant analysis, pre-treatment parameters including tumor number and CT confirmation of PVT and ascites were compared. Multivariant analysis was also used for comparison of the mean pretreatment values for laboratory measurements, including alpha-fetoprotein,direct/total bilirubin and GOT/GPT levels, and clinical history of chronic hepatitis across the three survival-time categories. The χ2 was used to test the significance of the relationship between survival time and TAE procedure.The Pvalues for the above tests were deemed statisticallysignificant where P<0.05.RESULTS: Portal vein thrombosis (P = 0.032) and ascites (P<0.05) were negative predictors of post-radiation survival time. Low-grade liver cirrhosis (A or B), lower tumor volume and low levels of AFT, GOT/GPT, and total bilirubin were predictors of longer post-radiation survival time (P<0.05).CONCLUSION: The CT and clinical and laboratory assessment provide a reference for, and enable estimation of, probable survival times in HCC patients after radiotherapy. Tumor volume, severity of liver cirrhosis,status with respect to portal vein thrombosis and ascites and AFT, GOT/GPT and total bilirubin values were significant predictors of survival in this study.

  14. Authority structure and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational characteristics on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. The general hypothesis is that the authority structure is a main cause of accident-proneness

  15. Use of decision trees for evaluating severe accident management strategies in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclerar Engineering; Lee, Yongjin; Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). School of Energy Systems Engineering

    2016-07-15

    Accident management strategies are defined to innovative actions taken by plant operators to prevent core damage or to maintain the sound containment integrity. Such actions minimize the chance of offsite radioactive substance leaks that lead to and intensify core damage under power plant accident conditions. Accident management extends the concept of Defense in Depth against core meltdown accidents. In pressurized water reactors, emergency operating procedures are performed to extend the core cooling time. The effectiveness of Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG) became an important issue. Severe accident management strategies are evaluated with a methodology utilizing the decision tree technique.

  16. Analysis of Maximum Reasonably Foreseeable Accidents for the Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.B. Ross; R.E. Best; S.J. Maheras; T.I. McSweeney

    2001-08-17

    Accidents could occur during the transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This paper describes the risks and consequences to the public from accidents that are highly unlikely but that could have severe consequences. The impact of these accidents would include those to a collective population and to hypothetical maximally exposed individuals (MEIs). This document discusses accidents with conditions that have a chance of occurring more often than 1 in 10 million times in a year, called ''maximum reasonably foreseeable accidents''. Accidents and conditions less likely than this are not considered to be reasonably foreseeable.

  17. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Hong; Cheon, Moon Heon; Cho, Nam jin; No, Hui Cheon; Chang, Hyeon Seop; Moon, Sang Kee; Park, Seok Jeong; Chung, Jee Hwan [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1991-12-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy.

  18. Work pressure is major cause of accidents at work

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.

    2004-01-01

    The work-related accident rate in the Netherlands is 6.4%. The highest rates were found in the construction and agricultural sectors and in the police force. Workers subject to heavy work and work pressure are shown to have an accident rate up to five times greater than for workers who seldom or nev

  19. Accident rates for heavy truck-tractors in Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blower, D; Campbell, K L; Green, P E

    1993-06-01

    Accident rates of heavy truck-tractors are modelled using log-linear methods. The accident data used are a census of truck-tractor involvements in Michigan from May 1987 to April 1988. Travel data used to calculate the rates were produced by a survey of truck-tractors in Michigan covering the same time period. Both the accident and travel data were limited to Michigan-registered tractors operating in Michigan. Log-linear models of casualty and property-damage-only accident rates were developed using number of trailers, road type, area type, and time of day as predictor variables. Overall, differences between tractors with one and two trailers were not significant. Tractors with no trailers (bobtails) have significantly higher accident rates. Characteristics of the operating environment were found to have larger effects on the accident rate than tractor configuration (except for the bobtail). Rates varied by a factor of up to 6.8, depending on the road type. Casualty accident risk at night was 1.4 times the risk during the day. The risk of a casualty accident in rural areas was 1.6 times that of urban areas.

  20. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2016-10-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  1. Cellular phones and traffic accidents: an epidemiological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Violanti, J M; Marshall, J R

    1996-03-01

    Using epidemiological case-control design and logistic regression techniques, this study examined the association of cellular phone use in motor vehicles and traffic accident risk. The amount of time per month spent talking on a cellular phone and 18 other driver inattention factors were examined. Data were obtained from: (1) a case group of 100 randomly selected drivers involved in accidents within the past 2 years, and (2) a control group of 100 randomly selected licensed drivers not involved in accidents within the past 10 years. Groups were matched on geographic residence. Approximately 13% (N = 7) of the accident and 9% (N = 7) of the non-accident group reported use of cellular phones while driving. Data was obtained from Department of Motor Vehicles accident reports and survey information from study subjects. We hypothesized that increased use of cellular phones while driving was associated with increased odds of a traffic accident. Results indicated that talking more than 50 minutes per month on cellular phones in a vehicle was associated with a 5.59-fold increased risk in a traffic accident. The combined use of cellular phones and motor and cognitive activities while driving were also associated with increased traffic accident risk. Readers should be cautioned that this study: (1) consists of a small sample, (2) reveals statistical associations and not causal relationships, and (3) does not conclude that talking on cellular phones while driving is inherently dangerous.

  2. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  3. The M1 form of tumor-associated macrophages in non-small cell lung cancer is positively associated with survival time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Fuqiang

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC, TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function and M2 (with pro-tumor function forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Methods Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Results Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm2 in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm2 and stroma (approximately 34/mm2 of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm2 and stroma (13/mm2 of the short survival group (P Conclusions The M1 macrophage density in the tumor islets is an independent predictor of survival time in NSCLC patients.

  4. Chernobyl accident and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1987-06-01

    The paper concerns the Chernobyl reactor accident, with emphasis on the design of the RBMK reactor and nuclear safety. A description is given of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, including details of the RMBK reactor and safety systems. Comments on the design of the RBMK by UK experts prior to the accident are summarized, along with post-accident design changes to improve RBMK safety. Events of the Chernobyl accident are described, as well as design deficiencies highlighted by the accident. Differences between the USSR and UK approaches to nuclear safety are commented on. Finally source terms, release periods and environmental consequences are briefly discussed.

  5. Anuran larval developmental plasticity and survival in response to variable salinity of ecologically relevant timing and magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Brian D; Pell, Rebecca J; Byrne, Phillip G; Reina, Richard D

    2014-12-01

    Salinity in affected freshwater ecosystems fluctuates with seasonal rainfall, tidal flux, rates of evaporation, chemical runoff and the influence of secondary salinization. Environmental stressors such as salinity can have lasting effects on anuran development, yet little is known about the effects of fluctuating salinity on tadpole ontogeny or the effects of differing magnitudes of salinity exposure, as would occur in natural wetland systems. We examined how salinity fluctuations affected survival, growth and development of Litoria ewingii by exposing tadpoles to a range of salinity concentrations (5.6-10.85 ppt) at three different stages of development (hind limb-bud formation; toe differentiation and forearm development). We also investigated the plasticity of tadpole growth rates in response to non-lethal, transient salinity influxes, specifically examining the capacity for compensatory growth and its relationship to the timing, magnitude or frequency of salinity exposure. Our results show that later-stage tadpoles are more tolerant to elevated salinity than those exposed at a younger age, and that exposure to high salinity later in life suppresses the potential for compensatory growth. Tadpoles exposed to transient low salinity lost less mass during metamorphosis than animals in constant salinity treatments, indicating a possible alternate to compensatory growth. Exposure to near-lethal salinities early in development did not alter tadpole responses to subsequent salinity stress. Our results provide some of the first evidence that both the timing and magnitude of transient environmental stressors can have an effect on anuran development and developmental trade-offs in a stressful environment.

  6. Accident Safety Design for High Speed Elevator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tawiwat Veeraklaew

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many elevators exist in buildings for such a long time; however, an accident might happen as a free fall due to lacks of maintenance or some other accident such as firing. Although this situation is rarely occurred, many people are still concerned about it. The question here is how to make passengers to feel safe and confident when they are using an elevator, especially, high speed elevator. This problem is studied here in this paper as a free fall spring-mass-damper system with the stiffness and damping coefficient can be computed as minimum jerk of the system with given constraints on trajectories.

  7. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost; Vladimir V. Frolov; Boris G. Ryazanov; Victor I. Sviridov

    2000-05-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.

  8. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisler, R.; Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John=

    2003-01-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

  9. Diving Accidents. Analyses of Underlying Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-05-01

    Nitrogen narcosis 3 0.3 bad gas 3 0.3 Total 1,036 100.1 1,033 100.2 Another factor of potential relevance in mishap occurrence was the time of day...exposure air, and nitrogen -oxygen equivalent air were all at relatively high risk of terminating in a mishap. Accident rates for the other variables

  10. A Comparison between Accelerated Failure-time and Cox Pro-portional Hazard Models in Analyzing the Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali ZARE

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Gastric cancer is the one of the most prevalent reason of cancer-related death in the world. Survival of patients after surgery involves identifying risk factors. There are various models to detect the effect of risk factors on patients’ survival. The present study aims at evaluating these models.Methods: Data from 330 gastric cancer patients diagnosed at the Iran cancer institute during 1995-99 and followed up the end of 2011 were analyzed. The survival status of these patients in 2011 was determined by reopening the files as well as phone calls and the effect of various factors such as demographic, clinical, treatment, and post-surgical on pa-tients’ survival was studied. To compare various models of survival, Akaike Information Criterion and Cox-Snell Re-siduals were used. STATA 11 was used for data analyses.Results: Based on Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion, the exponential (AIC=969.14 and Gom-pertz (AIC=970.70 models were more efficient than other accelerated failure-time models. Results of Cox propor-tional hazard model as well as the analysis of accelerated failure-time models showed that variables such as age (at di-agnosis, marital status, relapse, number of supplementary treatments, disease stage, and type of surgery were among factors affecting survival (P<0.05.Conclusion: Although most cancer researchers tend to use proportional hazard model, accelerated failure-time mod-els in analogous conditions — as they do not require proportional hazards assumption and consider a parametric sta-tistical distribution for survival time— will be credible alternatives to proportional hazard model.

  11. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Stahl

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant. METHODS: To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches. CONCLUSION: The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  12. Effect of time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy on local recurrence-free survival in preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yeon Joo; Kim, Jong Hoon; Yu, Chang Sik; Kim, Tae Won; Jang, Se Jin; Choi, Eun Kyung; Kim, Jin Cheon [Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Won Sik [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    The concentration of capecitabine peaks at 1–2 hours after administration. We therefore assumed that proper timing of capecitabine administration and radiotherapy would maximize radiosensitization and influence survival among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 223 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent preoperative chemoradiation, followed by surgery from January 2002 to May 2006. All patients underwent pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy/25 fractions) and received capecitabine twice daily at 12-hour intervals (1,650 mg/m2/day). Patients were divided into two groups according to the time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy. Patients who took capecitabine 1 hour before radiotherapy were classified as Group A (n = 109); all others were classified as Group B (n = 114). The median follow-up period was 72 months (range, 7 to 149 months). Although Group A had a significantly higher rate of good responses (44% vs. 25%; p = 0.005), the 5-year local recurrence-free survival rates of 93% in Group A and 97% in Group B did not differ significantly (p = 0.519). The 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates were also comparable between the groups. Despite the better pathological response in Group A, the time interval between capecitabine and radiotherapy administration did not have a significant effect on survivals. Further evaluations are needed to clarify the interaction of these treatment modalities.

  13. RENEB accident simulation exercise

    OpenAIRE

    Brzozowska, Beata; Ainsbury, Elizabeth; Baert, Annelot; Beaton-Green, Lindsay; Barrios, Leonardo; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Bassinet, Celine; Beinke, Christina; Benedek, Anett; Beukes, Philip; Bortolin, Emanuela; Buraczewska, Iwona; Burbidge, Christopher; De Amicis, Andrea; De Angelis, Cinzia

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The RENEB accident exercise was carried out in order to train the RENEB participants in coordinating and managing potentially large data sets that would be generated in case of a major radiological event. Materials and methods: Each participant was offered the possibility to activate the network by sending an alerting email about a simulated radiation emergency. The same participant had to collect, compile and report capacity, triage categorization and exposure scenario results ob...

  14. PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovica Jovanovic

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical services, physicians and nurses play an essential role in the plant safety program through primary treatment of injured workers and by helping to identify workplace hazards. The physician and nurse should participate in the worksite investigations to identify specific hazard or stresses potentially causing the occupational accidents and injuries and in planning the subsequent hazard control program. Physicians and nurses must work closely and cooperatively with supervisors to ensure the prompt reporting and treatment of all work related health and safety problems. Occupational accidents, work related injuries and fatalities result from multiple causes, affect different segments of the working population, and occur in a myriad of occupations and industrial settings. Multiple factors and risks contribute to traumatic injuries, such as hazardous exposures, workplace and process design, work organization and environment, economics, and other social factors. With such a diversity of theories, it will not be difficult to understand that there does not exist one single theory that is considered right or correct and is universally accepted. These theories are nonetheless necessary, but not sufficient, for developing a frame of reference for understanding accident occurrences. Prevention strategies are also varied, and multiple strategies may be applicable to many settings, including engineering controls, protective equipment and technologies, management commitment to and investment in safety, regulatory controls, and education and training. Research needs are thus broad, and the development and application of interventions involve many disciplines and organizations.

  15. The effects of ambient temperature and mixing time of glass ionomer cement material on the survival rate of proximal ART restorations in primary molars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur M Kemoli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Temperature fluctuations and material mixing times are likely to affect the consistency and integrity of the material mixture, and hence the restoration made out of it. The purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of the ambient temperature and the mixing time of glass ionomer cement (GIC restorative material on the survival rate of proximal atraumatic restorative treatment (ART restorations placed in primary molars. Materials and Methods: A total of 804 restorations were placed in the primary molars of 6-8-year-olds using the ART approach. The restorations were then followed for a period of 2 years and evaluated at given intervals. The data collected were analyzed using SPSS computer statistical program, and the results tested and compared using the Chi-square, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional hazard statistical tests. Results: The cumulative survival rate of the restorations dropped from the initial 94.4% to 30.8% at the end of 2 years. The higher survival rate of the restorations was associated with the experienced operators and assistants when using the rubber dam isolation method. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the survival rate of the restorations when related to the room temperature and the mixing time of the GIC materials used in spite of the variations in the temperature recoded and the methods used in mixing the materials. Conclusion: The ambient temperature and mixing time of GIC did not have a significant effect on the survival of the proximal ART restorations.

  16. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K (Dept. of Radiology, Toeoeloe Hospital, Helsinki (Finland)), email: frank.bensch@hus.fi

    2011-12-15

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  17. [Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Jun

    2012-03-01

    It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

  18. Blockade of CD40-CD154 at the time of donor-specific blood transfusion does not lead to prolonged kidney allograft survival in nonhuman primates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ringers, J; Haanstra, KG; Kroczek, RA; Kliem, K; Kuhn, EM; Wubben, J; Ossevoort, MA; Volk, HD; Jonker, M

    2002-01-01

    Background. In rodents it has been demonstrated that blockade of the CD40-CD154 (CD40L) pathway at the time of donor-specific blood transfusion (DST) can result in indefinite graft survival. Because it has been reported in the past that DST in monkeys can have a favorable effect on graft outcome and

  19. Designing of an emergency call system for traffic accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziya Ekşi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In our country, many people have been seriously injured or died in traffic accidents. Fatal accidents often occur because of not complying with traffic rules or carelessness. Except these driver mistakes, heavy injuries can result in deaths because of emergency aid teams failing to arrive to accident scene in time. In this study, an accident emergency call system is designed to help injured people's treatment as soon as possible by notifying emercengy team automatically in accidents. The designed system sends messages, including information such as vehicle location, exploding airbag number, vehicle model, age and registration plate, to emergency aid team using GPS module at the moment of crashed vehicle's airbag explosion.

  20. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, H. S.; Jeon, M. H.; Cho, N. J. and others [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-01-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts.

  1. Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saar, Indrek

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

  2. Increase the Safety of Road Traffic Accidents by Applying Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kos Goran

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In terms of continual increase of number of traffic accidents and alarming trend of increasing number of traffic accidents with catastrophic consequences for human life and health, it is necessary to actively research and develop methods to combat these trends. One of the measures is the implementation of advanced information systems in existing traffic environment. Accidents clusters, as databases of traffic accidents, introduce a new dimension in traffic systems in the form of experience, providing information on current accidents and the ones that have previously occurred in a given period. This paper proposes a new approach to predictive management of traffic processes, based on the collection of data in real time and is based on accidents clusters. The modern traffic information services collects road traffic status data from a wide variety of traffic sensing systems using modern ICT technologies, creating the most accurate road traffic situation awareness achieved so far. Road traffic situation awareness enhanced by accident clusters' data can be visualized and distributed in various ways (including the forms of dynamic heat maps and on various information platforms, suiting the requirements of the end-users. Accent is placed on their significant features that are based on additional knowledge about existing traffic processes and distribution of important traffic information in order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents.

  3. Analysis of hot leg natural circulation under station blackout severe accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Under severe accidents, natural circulation flows are important to influence the accident progression and result in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). In a station blackout accident with no recovery of steam generator (SG) auxiliary feedwater (TMLB' severe accident scenario), the hot leg countercurrent natural circulation flow is analyzed by using a severe-accident code, to better understand its potential impacts on the creep-rupture timing among the surge line, the hot leg, and SG tubes. The results show that the natural circulation may delay the failure time of the hot leg.The recirculation ratio and the hot mixing factor are also calculated and discussed.

  4. Car accidents in cellular automata models for one-lane traffic flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, Najem

    2003-09-01

    Conditions for the occurrence of car accidents are introduced in the Nagel-Schreckenberg model. These conditions are based on the thought that a real accident depends on several parameters: an unexpected action of the car ahead (sudden stop or abrupt deceleration), the gap between the two cars, the velocity of the successor car and its delayed reaction time. We discuss then the effect of this delayed reaction time on the probability of traffic accidents. We find that these conditions for the occurrence of car accidents are necessary for modeling realistic accidents.

  5. Radiation accident grips Goiania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, L.

    1987-11-20

    On 13 September two young scavengers in Goiania, Brazil, removed a stainless steel cylinder from a cancer therapy machine in an abandoned clinic, touching off a radiation accident second only to Chernobyl in its severity. On 18 September they sold the cylinder, the size of a 1-gallon paint can, to a scrap dealer for $25. At the junk yard an employee dismantled the cylinder and pried open the platinum capsule inside to reveal a glowing blue salt-like substance - 1400 curies of cesium-137. Fascinated by the luminescent powder, several people took it home with them. Some children reportedly rubbed in on their bodies like carnival glitter - an eerie image of how wrong things can go when vigilance over radioactive materials lapses. In all, 244 people in Goiania, a city of 1 million in central Brazil, were contaminated. The eventual toll, in terms of cancer or genetic defects, cannot yet be estimated. Parts of the city are cordoned off as radiation teams continue washing down buildings and scooping up radioactive soil. The government is also grappling with the political fallout from the accident.

  6. Unrecorded Accidents Detection on Highways Based on Temporal Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi An

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automatic traffic accident detection, especially not recorded by traffic police, is crucial to accident black spots identification and traffic safety. A new method of detecting traffic accidents is proposed based on temporal data mining, which can identify the unknown and unrecorded accidents by traffic police. Time series model was constructed using ternary numbers to reflect the state of traffic flow based on cell transmission model. In order to deal with the aftereffects of linear drift between time series and to reduce the computational cost, discrete Fourier transform was implemented to turn time series from time domain to frequency domain. The pattern of the time series when an accident happened could be recognized using the historical crash data. Then taking Euclidean distance as the similarity evaluation function, similarity data mining of the transformed time series was carried out. If the result was less than the given threshold, the two time series were similar and an accident happened probably. A numerical example was carried out and the results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Impact of on-site care, prehospital time, and level of in-hospital care on survival in severely injured patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampalis, J S; Lavoie, A; Williams, J I; Mulder, D S; Kalina, M

    1993-02-01

    A sample of 360 severely injured patients was selected from a cohort of 8007 trauma victims followed prospectively from the time of injury to death or discharge. A case referent study was used to test the association between on-site care, total prehospital time, and level of care at the receiving hospital with short-term survival. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that use of Advanced Life Support (ALS) at the scene was not associated with survival, whereas treatment at a level I compatible hospital was associated with a 38% reduction in the odds of dying, which approached statistical significance. Total prehospital time over 60 minutes was associated with a statistically significant adjusted relative odds of dying (OR = 3.0). The results of this study support the need for regionalization of trauma care and fail to show a benefit associated with ALS.

  8. Accidents due to falls from roof slabs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Alves Rudelli

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE Falls from the roof slabs of houses are accidents of high potential severity that occur in large Brazilian cities and often affect children and adolescents. The aims of this study were to characterize the factors that predispose towards this type of fall involving children and adolescents, quantify the severity of associated lesions and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN AND SETTING Descriptive observational prospective longitudinal study in two hospitals in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. METHODS Data were collected from 29 cases of falls from roof slabs involving children and adolescents between October 2008 and October 2009. RESULTS Cases involving males were more prevalent, accounting for 84%. The predominant age group was schoolchildren (7 to 12 years old; 44%. Leisure activities were most frequently being practiced on the roof slab at the time of the fall (86%, and flying a kite was the most prevalent game (37.9%. In 72% of the cases, the children were unaccompanied by an adult responsible for them. Severe conditions such as multiple trauma and traumatic brain injuries resulted from 79% of the accidents. CONCLUSION Falls from roof slabs are accidents of high potential severity, and preventive measures aimed towards informing parents and guardians about the dangers and risk factors associated with this type of accident are needed, along with physical protective measures, such as low walls around the slab and gates with locks to restrict free access to these places.

  9. ANS severe accident program overview & planning document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1995-09-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) severe accident document was developed to provide a concise and coherent mechanism for presenting the ANS SAP goals, a strategy satisfying these goals, a succinct summary of the work done to date, and what needs to be done in the future to ensure timely licensability. Guidance was received from various bodies [viz., panel members of the ANS severe accident workshop and safety review committee, Department of Energy (DOE) orders, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements for ALWRs and advanced reactors, ACRS comments, world-wide trends] were utilized to set up the ANS-relevant SAS goals and strategy. An in-containment worker protection goal was also set up to account for the routine experimenters and other workers within containment. The strategy for achieving the goals is centered upon closing the severe accident issues that have the potential for becoming certification issues when assessed against realistic bounding events. Realistic bounding events are defined as events with an occurrency frequency greater than 10{sup {minus}6}/y. Currently, based upon the level-1 probabilistic risk assessment studies, the realistic bounding events for application for issue closure are flow blockage of fuel element coolant channels, and rapid depressurization-related accidents.

  10. Accidents due to falls from roof slabs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudelli, Bruno Alves; Silva, Marcelo Valerio Alabarce da; Akkari, Miguel; Santili, Claudio

    2013-01-01

    CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE Falls from the roof slabs of houses are accidents of high potential severity that occur in large Brazilian cities and often affect children and adolescents. The aims of this study were to characterize the factors that predispose towards this type of fall involving children and adolescents, quantify the severity of associated lesions and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN AND SETTING Descriptive observational prospective longitudinal study in two hospitals in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. METHODS Data were collected from 29 cases of falls from roof slabs involving children and adolescents between October 2008 and October 2009. RESULTS Cases involving males were more prevalent, accounting for 84%. The predominant age group was schoolchildren (7 to 12 years old; 44%). Leisure activities were most frequently being practiced on the roof slab at the time of the fall (86%), and flying a kite was the most prevalent game (37.9%). In 72% of the cases, the children were unaccompanied by an adult responsible for them. Severe conditions such as multiple trauma and traumatic brain injuries resulted from 79% of the accidents. CONCLUSION Falls from roof slabs are accidents of high potential severity, and preventive measures aimed towards informing parents and guardians about the dangers and risk factors associated with this type of accident are needed, along with physical protective measures, such as low walls around the slab and gates with locks to restrict free access to these places.

  11. Traffic accidents on expressways: new threat to China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jinbao; Deng, Wei

    2012-01-01

    As China is building one of the largest expressway systems in the world, expressway safety problems have become serious concerns to China. This article analyzed the trends in expressway accidents in China from 1995 to 2010 and examined the characteristics of these accidents. Expressway accident data were obtained from the Annual Report for Road Traffic Accidents published by the Ministry of Public Security of China. Expressway mileage data were obtained from the National Statistics Yearbook published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted based on these data. Expressway deaths increased by 10.2-fold from 616 persons in 1995 to 6300 persons in 2010, and the average annual increase was 17.9 percent over the past 15 years, and the overall other road traffic deaths was -0.33 percent. China's expressway mileage accounted for only 1.85 percent of highway mileage driven in 2010, but expressway deaths made up 13.54 percent of highway traffic deaths. The average annual accident lethality rate [accident deaths/(accident deaths + accident injuries)] for China's expressways was 27.76 percent during the period 1995 to 2010, which was 1.33 times higher than the accident lethality rate of highway traffic accidents. China's government should pay attention to expressway construction and safety interventions during the rapid development period of expressways. Related causes, such as geographic patterns, speeding, weather conditions, and traffic flow composition, need to be studied in the near future. An effective and scientific expressway safety management services system, composed of a speed monitoring system, warning system, and emergency rescue system, should be established in developed and underdeveloped provinces in China to improve safety on expressway.

  12. STUDY OF INJURY PATTERN IN HUMAN BEINGS IN ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS INVOLVING TWO WHEELERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seethalakshmi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available India experienced very rapid population growth from 48 million to 1.2 billion in a span of decades. In India rapid urbanization, industrialization, population explosion and migration of people in past two decades r esults in enormous growth in the field of road transportation. This resulted in increasing amount of the road traffic leading to increased risk for occurrence of road traffic accidents. In India road traffic injuries will be third leading cause of death by 2020 with the increase in the use of two wheelers and congestion and environmental pollution this mortality rate will continue to rise. Considering the preciousness of human lives, this study has been undertaken to analyse the pattern of injuries in Road Traffic Accidents Involving Two Wheelers to create awareness among the law enforcing authorities, transport authorities and public regarding two wheeler fatalities. A sincere attempt has been made in this study to analyse the distribution of the pattern of injuries sustained by two wheeler travellers, so that appropriate interventional strategies can be evolved at various levels and by different agencies. 147 Two wheeler Accident victims were randomly selected from 1063 road traffic accident cases brought t o the Institute of Forensic Medicine, Madras Medical College Chennai - 3 for routine medico legal examination. Preliminary data were collected from the medico legal documents such as history of the case, Inquest form, First Information Report, Accident Regis ter, Death Report, Clinical data submitted by the investigating officer at the time of medico legal examination. During autopsy, on external exami nation, nature of injury, size, number were measured in all cases. Internal organ injuries were recorded. Caus e of death was arrived at based on the findings made out during autopsy. Totally 147 motorcyclist victims were included in this study in which demographic factors such as age, sex, time of accident, manner of collision

  13. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  14. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C Battaile

    Full Text Available We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864; northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758; and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  15. Effect of Polyprenyl Immunostimulant on the survival times of three cats with the dry form of feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legendre, Alfred M; Bartges, Joseph W

    2009-08-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is considered a fatal disease. Three cats with dry form FIP were treated with Polyprenyl Immunostimulant. Two of the three cats are still on treatment and are alive and well 2 years after diagnosis. The third cat survived 14 months but was treated for only 4.5 months. Further studies are necessary to assess the potential of the Polyprenyl Immunostimulant.

  16. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    Science.gov (United States)

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  17. Medical risk factors amongst drivers in single-car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gislason, T; Tómasson, K; Reynisdóttir, H; Björnsson, J K; Kristbjarnarson, H

    1997-03-01

    To estimate medical risk factors amongst drivers in single-car accidents with special reference to sleepiness and alcohol abuse. An epidemiological survey by means of multiple-choice questionnaires that were mailed to drivers and a random control group. Iceland. All drivers in single-car accidents (n = 471) during 1989-91 and a control group from the general population (n = 1000). Medical health profile and answers to questions concerning sleep disorders and alcohol abuse. Compared to the controls the drivers were younger and there were three times more males. The drivers abused alcohol more often. Chronic disorders such as epilepsy, diabetes mellitus, and cardiac disorders were not over-represented. Altogether, 15.4% claimed that sleepiness had caused their traffic accident, logistic regression analyses revealed that these 'sleepy' drivers more often had alcohol abuse and a history of 'almost falling a sleep whilst driving'. Compared to controls, drivers in single-car accidents are more likely to be young, male, have a history of sleepiness whilst driving, and also have a history suggestive of alcoholism. Chronic disorders like epilepsy and diabetes mellitus were not over-represented amongst the single-car accidents drivers. These results raise the question of how drivers with a high probability of causing an accident (sleepiness and alcoholism) can be identified in time and proper measures taken to prevent 'accidents waiting to happen'.

  18. Learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drupsteen, L.; Kampen, J. van

    2014-01-01

    There are many different definitions for what constitutes an incident or an accident, however the focus is always on unintended and often unforeseen events that cause unintended consequences. This article is focused on the process of learning from incidents and accidents. The focus is on making sure

  19. [Practical management of CPB accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depoix, J-P; Fenet, L; Provenchere, S

    2012-05-01

    Accident of CPB is a reality. It is important to be prepared for discussion with the family, with the hospital administration, eventually with the justice. But we have also to support perfusionnist and anesthetic team in charge of the patient during accident.

  20. Learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drupsteen, L.; Kampen, J. van

    2014-01-01

    There are many different definitions for what constitutes an incident or an accident, however the focus is always on unintended and often unforeseen events that cause unintended consequences. This article is focused on the process of learning from incidents and accidents. The focus is on making sure

  1. Mercury and drought along the lower Carson River, Nevada: IV. Snowy egret post-fledging dispersal, timing of migration and survival, 2002-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henny, Charles J; Hill, Elwood F; Grove, Robert A; Chelgren, Nathan D; Haggerty, Patricia K

    2017-01-01

    This telemetry study is an extension of our 1997-2006 research on historical mercury contamination on snowy egrets (Egretta thula) up to ~ 20 days of age. Findings from initial studies at the mercury-contaminated Carson River colony at Lahontan Reservoir (LR) and a similar-sized reference (REF) colony on the Humboldt River included mercury-related physiological, biochemical, histopathological and reproductive effects up to ~20 days of age; with poor water years (2000-04), i.e., reduced prey availability, exacerbating effects. Herein, we compare timing of dispersal and migration at LR vs. REF, but the primary question now addressed is "whether survival of young mercury-exposed snowy egrets from LR would be further compromised beyond ~20 days of age? " Based upon telemetry signals until 90-110 days of age (including dead bird counts and survival rate estimates), we conclude that mercury did not further compromise survival. Dead bird counts and survival rate estimates included time in the colony when fed by adults, plus the critical period when young dispersed from the colony to forage independently. The extended drought during this 3-year study was most critical in 2002 when production of ~20d old egrets at LR was only 0.24 young/nest. In 2002, survival rates were low at both colonies and we documented the highest counts of dead egrets for both colonies. We suggest the losses in 2002 beyond 20 days of age were more a function of prey availability influenced by drought than exposure to mercury, especially at LR, because higher mercury concentrations, higher survival rates and fewer dead birds were documented at LR in 2003 when water conditions improved. Furthermore, total mercury (THg) in blood in 2003 was more than double 2002 (geometric mean, 3.39 vs 1.47µg/g wet weight (ww). This higher THg exposure at LR in 2003 was associated with a redistribution of parent and post-dispersal feeding activities upstream (where there was higher mercury from historic mining

  2. Mercury and drought along the lower Carson River, Nevada: IV. Snowy egret post-fledging dispersal, timing of migration and survival, 2002–2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henny, Charles J.; Hill, Elwood F.; Grove, Robert A.; Chelgren, Nathan; Haggerty, Patricia K.

    2017-01-01

    This telemetry study is an extension of our 1997–2006 research on historical mercury contamination on snowy egrets (Egretta thula) up to ~ 20 days of age. Findings from initial studies at the mercury-contaminated Carson River colony at Lahontan Reservoir (LR) and a similar-sized reference (REF) colony on the Humboldt River included mercury-related physiological, biochemical, histopathological and reproductive effects up to ~20 days of age; with poor water years (2000–04), i.e., reduced prey availability, exacerbating effects. Herein, we compare timing of dispersal and migration at LR vs. REF, but the primary question now addressed is “whether survival of young mercury-exposed snowy egrets from LR would be further compromised beyond ~20 days of age? ” Based upon telemetry signals until 90–110 days of age (including dead bird counts and survival rate estimates), we conclude that mercury did not further compromise survival. Dead bird counts and survival rate estimates included time in the colony when fed by adults, plus the critical period when young dispersed from the colony to forage independently. The extended drought during this 3-year study was most critical in 2002 when production of ~20 d old egrets at LR was only 0.24 young/nest. In 2002, survival rates were low at both colonies and we documented the highest counts of dead egrets for both colonies. We suggest the losses in 2002 beyond 20 days of age were more a function of prey availability influenced by drought than exposure to mercury, especially at LR, because higher mercury concentrations, higher survival rates and fewer dead birds were documented at LR in 2003 when water conditions improved. Furthermore, total mercury (THg) in blood in 2003 was more than double 2002 (geometric mean, 3.39 vs 1.47 µg/g wet weight (ww). This higher THg exposure at LR in 2003 was associated with a redistribution of parent and post-dispersal feeding activities upstream (where there was higher mercury from historic

  3. Traffic Accidents on Slippery Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonnesbech, J. K.; Bolet, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Police registrations from 65 accidents on slippery roads in normally Danish winters have been studied. The study showed: • 1 accident per 100 km when using brine spread with nozzles • 2 accidents per 100 km when using pre wetted salt • 3 accidents per 100 km when using kombi spreaders The results...... of accidents in normally Danish winter seasons are remarkable alike the amount of salt used in praxis in the winter 2011/2012. • 2.7 ton NaCl/km when using brine spread with nozzles • 5 ton NaCl/km when using pre wetted salt. • 5.7 ton NaCl/km when using kombi spreaders The explanation is that spreading...

  4. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents......The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...... occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA...

  5. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents.

  6. Traffic Accident, System Model and Cluster Analysis in GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Vlčková

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the many often frequented topics as normal journalism, so the professional public, is the problem of traffic accidents. This article illustrates the orientation of considerations to a less known context of accidents, with the help of constructive systems theory and its methods, cluster analysis and geoinformation engineering. Traffic accident is reframing the space-time, and therefore it can be to study with tools of technology of geographic information systems. The application of system approach enabling the formulation of the system model, grabbed by tools of geoinformation engineering and multicriterial and cluster analysis.

  7. Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: A Real-Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) Designed for the Operational Prediction of Hazardous Aviation Turbulence Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lux, Kevin M.; Cetola, Jeffrey D.; Huffman, Allan W.; Riordan, Allen J.; Slusser, Sarah W.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Charney, Joseph J.; Waight, Kenneth T.

    2004-01-01

    Real-time prediction of environments predisposed to producing moderate-severe aviation turbulence is studied. We describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real time on a university work station in support of NASA Langley Research Center s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products, including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally, there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross-section plot products are provided from 16 000 to 46 000 ft in 2000-ft intervals. Products are available every 3 hours at the 60- and 30-km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15-km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.

  8. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  9. Timing of Aspirin and Other Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Use Among Patients With Colorectal Cancer in Relation to Tumor Markers and Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xinwei; Phipps, Amanda I; Burnett-Hartman, Andrea N; Adams, Scott V; Hardikar, Sheetal; Cohen, Stacey A; Kocarnik, Jonathan M; Ahnen, Dennis J; Lindor, Noralane M; Baron, John A; Newcomb, Polly A

    2017-08-20

    Purpose Regular use of aspirin is associated with improved survival for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the timing of and the subtype of CRC that would benefit the most from using aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in relation to survival is unclear. Patients and Methods In all, 2,419 patients age 18 to 74 years with incident invasive CRC who were diagnosed from 1997 to 2008 were identified from population-based cancer registries in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Detailed epidemiologic questionnaires were administered at study enrollment and at 5-year follow-up. Survival outcomes were completed through linkage to national death registries. BRAF- and KRAS-mutation status, microsatellite instability, and CpG island methylator phenotype were also evaluated. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival (OS) and CRC-specific survival. Results After a median of 10.8 years of follow-up since diagnosis, 381 deaths (100 as a result of CRC) were observed. Compared with nonusers, postdiagnostic aspirin-only users had more favorable OS (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.95) and CRC-specific survival (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.71), especially among those who initiated aspirin use (OS: HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.86; CRC-specific survival: HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.80). The association between any NSAID use after diagnosis and OS differed significantly by KRAS-mutation status ( Pinteraction = .01). Use of any NSAID after diagnosis was associated with improved OS only among participants with KRAS wild-type tumors (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.80) but not among those with KRAS-mutant tumors (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.96). Conclusion Among long-term CRC survivors, regular use of NSAIDs after CRC diagnosis was significantly associated with improved survival in individuals with KRAS wild-type tumors.

  10. Typologie des Accidents Cyclistes

    OpenAIRE

    Amoros, Emmanuelle; BILLOT-GRASSET, Alice; Hours, Martine

    2015-01-01

    L'usage du vélo est en hausse en ville ; cette pratique est encouragée dans le cadre du développement durable et de la lutte contre la sédentarité. Pour accompagner cela, il faut réduire les risques d'accident, et pour ce faire, mieux les connaître. Nous utilisons le Registre des victimes de la circulation routière du Rhône, basé sur les services hospitaliers (dont les urgences) ; il est quasi-exhaustif : env. 1100 blessés à vélo/an versus 120 dans les données officielles. L'ensemble des cycl...

  11. Preliminary assessment of accident-tolerant fuels on LWR performance during normal operation and under DB and BDB accident conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L. J.; Robb, K. R.; Wang, D.

    2014-05-01

    Following the severe accidents at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the US Department of Energy initiated research and development on the enhancement of the accident tolerance of light water reactors by the development of fuels/cladding that, in comparison with the standard UO2/Zircaloy (Zr) system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations. Analyses are presented that illustrate the impact of these new candidate fuel/cladding materials on the fuel performance at normal operating conditions and on the reactor system under DB and BDB accident conditions.

  12. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  13. Preliminary Calculation on a Spent Fuel Pool Accident using GOTHIC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jaehwan; Choi, Yu Jung; Hong, Tae Hyub; Kim, Hyeong-Taek [KHNP-CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The probability of an accident happening at the spent fuel pool was believed to be quite low until the 2011 Fukushima accident occurred. Notably, large amount of spent fuel are normally stored in the spent fuel pool for a long time compared to the amount of fuel in the reactor core and the total heat released from the spent fuel is high enough to boil the water of the spent fuel pool when the cooling system does not operate. In addition, the enrichment and the burnup of the fuel have both increased in the past decade and heat generation from the spent fuel thereby has also increased. The failure of the cooling system at the spent fuel pool (hereafter, a loss-of-cooling accident) is one of the principal hypothetical causes of an accident that could occur at the spent fuel pool. In this paper, the preliminary calculation of a loss-of-cooling accident was performed. In this paper, the preliminary calculation of a loss-of cooling accident was performed with GOTHIC. The calculation results show boiling away of water in the spent fuel pool due to the loss-of-cooling accident and similar thermal performance of the spent fuel pool with previous research results.

  14. Kidney pathology and parasite intensity in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss surviving proliferative kidney disease: time course and influence of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt-Posthaus, Heike; Bettge, Kathrin; Forster, Ursula; Segner, Helmut; Wahli, Thomas

    2012-01-24

    Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an endoparasitic disease of salmonids caused by the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. We recently described the development of the disease from initial infection until manifestation of clinical disease signs in rainbow trout held at 2 water temperatures, 12 and 18°C. The aim of the present study is to investigate whether (1) infected fish surviving the clinical phase would recover from renal pathological changes, (2) whether they would be able to reduce the parasite load in the kidneys, and (3) whether water temperatures would influence renal recovery and parasite clearance. At 18°C, fish showed a gradual recovery of normal kidney morphology which was associated with a decline in parasite numbers and infection prevalence. Fish kept at 12°C initially showed an enhancement of kidney lesions before recovery of normal kidney morphology took place. The decrease in renal parasite load was retarded compared to 18°C. The results from the present study provide evidence that rainbow trout surviving the clinical phase of PKD are able to (1) fully restore renal structure, and (2) significantly reduce renal parasite loads, although 100% clearance was not achieved within the experimental period of this study. Water temperature influences the rate but not the outcome of the recovery process.

  15. Social familiarity reduces reaction times and enhances survival of group-living predatory mites under the risk of predation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Andreas Strodl

    Full Text Available Social familiarity, which is based on the ability to recognise familiar conspecific individuals following prior association, may affect all major life activities of group-living animals such as foraging, reproduction and anti-predator behaviours. A scarcely experimentally tested explanation why social familiarity is beneficial for group-living animals is provided by limited attention theory. Limited attention theory postulates that focusing on a given task, such as inspection and assessment of unfamiliar group members, has cognitive and associated physiological and behavioural costs with respect to the attention paid to other tasks, such as anti-predator vigilance and response. Accordingly, we hypothesised that social familiarity enhances the anti-predator success of group-living predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis, confronted with an intraguild predator, the predatory mite Amblyseius andersoni.We videotaped and analysed the response of two P. persimilis larvae, held in familiar or unfamiliar pairs, to attacks by a gravid A. andersoni female, using the behavioural analyses software EthoVision Pro®. Familiar larvae were more frequently close together, reacted more quickly to predator attacks, survived more predator encounters and survived longer than unfamiliar larvae.In line with the predictions of limited attention theory, we suggest that social familiarity improves anti-predator behaviours because it allows prey to shift attention to other tasks rather than group member assessment.

  16. An analysis of accident data for franchised public buses in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, W A; Courtney, A J

    1985-10-01

    This paper analyses data on accidents involving franchised public buses operating in Hong Kong. The data were obtained from the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Hong Kong Government Transport Department, the two major franchised bus operators and international sources. The analysis includes an international comparison of accidents with emphasis on the situation in Hong Kong compared to urban areas in the United Kingdom. An attempt has been made to identify the characteristics of bus accidents; accident incidence has been related to time of day, day of the week, time of year, weather conditions, driver's age and experience, hours on duty and policy-reported cause. The results indicate that Hong Kong has a high accident rate compared to Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A., with particularly high pedestrian involvement rates. Bus accidents peak at around 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM but the accident rate is high throughout the day. Monday and Saturday appear to have a higher than average accident rate. The variability of accident rate throughout the year does not seem to be significant and the accident rate does not appear to be influenced by weather conditions. Older, more experienced drivers generally have a safer driving record than their younger, less experienced colleagues. Accident occurrence is related to the time the driver has been on duty. The paper questions the reliability of police-reported accident causation data and suggests improvements in the design of the accident report form and in the training of police investigators. The relevance of the Hong Kong study for accident research in general is also discussed.

  17. Road Traffic Accidents - The Number One Killer in Libya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulmajid Ahmed Ali

    2007-01-01

    and a seatbelt. I had to apologize profusely to the young traffic policeman and explain that I was wearing sunglasses because I was driving facing the sun! The reason for wearing the seatbelt was a habit from living abroad for many years and I was not a "show off" as he put it! This incidence made me wonder how much the traffic police knew about the law?• In Libya the way we behave in the street, the way we drive and our attitude towards pedestrians is not taught in schools at an early age. As a matter of fact, many drivers think it is "cool" to scare pedestrians.• Most of the accidents in Libya occur at school times but unfortunately no measures are taken by the traffic police to help young children to cross roads safely.• Most of the road traffic accidents happen at the same areas but these are never identified as "black spots" to warn drivers of the possible dangers.• Although Zebra Crossings exist in some parts of Libya, they actually do not serve the purpose. We just need to count how many pedestrians (especially foreign visitors have been knocked down at Zebra Crossings.• There is a need for new road signs, clear road markings (lanes, and new traffic lights to replace old and often non-functioning ones.• One study demonstrated that speeding was responsible for about 70% of accidents [4]. There are no speed cameras or road humps to slow down speeding cars, therefore residents who have lost children to road traffic accidents resort to building their own version of street humps made from old pipes, thick ropes or cement.• Most of the main roads are full of holes and in desperate need of maintenance.• Car seats for children are not compulsory.• When accidents happen in Libya, what number do we dial? Do emergency services exist?• It is a known fact that most of the deaths and permanent disabilities in road traffic accidents are caused by people trying to help due to the lack of Advanced Trauma and Life Support (ATLS trained personnel [5,6].• It

  18. Nuclear power plant Severe Accident Research Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larkins, J T; Cunningham, M A

    1983-01-01

    The Severe Accident Research Plan (SARP) will provide technical information necessary to support regulatory decisions in the severe accident area for existing or planned nuclear power plants, and covers research for the time period of January 1982 through January 1986. SARP will develop generic bases to determine how safe the plants are and where and how their level of safety ought to be improved. The analysis to address these issues will be performed using improved probabilistic risk assessment methodology, as benchmarked to more exact data and analysis. There are thirteen program elements in the plan and the work is phased in two parts, with the first phase being completed in early 1984, at which time an assessment will be made whether or not any major changes will be recommended to the Commission for operating plants to handle severe accidents. Additionally at this time, all of the thirteen program elements in Chapter 5 will be reviewed and assessed in terms of how much additional work is necessary and where major impacts in probabilistic risk assessment might be achieved. Confirmatory research will be carried out in phase II to provide additional assurance on the appropriateness of phase I decisions. Most of this work will be concluded by early 1986.

  19. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  20. Factors associated with the severity of construction accidents: The case of South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jantanee Dumrak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available While the causes of accidents in the construction industry have been extensively studied, severity remains an understudied area. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on severity, this study analysed 24,764 construction accidents reported during 2002-11 in South Australia. A conceptual model developed through literature uses personal characteristics such as age, experience, gender and language. It also employs work-related factors such as size of organization, project size and location, mechanism of accident and body location of the injury. These were shown to discriminate why some accidents result in only a minor severity while others are fatal. Factors such as time of accident, day of the week and season were not strongly associated with accident severity. When the factors affecting severity of an accident are well understood, preventive measures could be developed specifically to those factors that are at high risk.

  1. Major Differences in Rates of Occupational Accidents between Different nationalities of Seafarers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik L.; Laursen, Lise Hedegaard; Frydberg, Morten

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Earlier studies and statistics have shown that merchant seafarers from the South East Asia had considerable lower accident rates when compared with seafarers from Western Europe. The purposes of the study were to investigate whether the earlier observations were sustained if further...... sources on occurrence of accidents were used and to identify specific causes of excess accident rates among certain nationalities. METHODS: Occupational accidents aboard Danish merchant ships during one year were identified from four different sources. These included accidents reported to the maritime...... authorities, accidents reported to a mutual insurance company, files on medical costs reimbursed by the government and finally, accidents in which there has been contact to the radio medical service. Time at risk aboard was obtained from a register on all employment periods aboard merchant ships. RESULTS...

  2. Epidemiological, clinical, and echocardiographic features and survival times of dogs and cats with tetralogy of Fallot: 31 cases (2003-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetboul, Valérie; Pitsch, Isabelle; Tissier, Renaud; Gouni, Vassiliki; Misbach, Charlotte; Trehiou-Sechi, Emilie; Petit, Amandine M; Damoiseaux, Cécile; Pouchelon, Jean-Louis; Desquilbet, Loïc; Bomassi, Eric

    2016-10-15

    OBJECTIVE To characterize the epidemiological, clinical, and echocardiographic features of dogs and cats with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) and determine their survival times. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 15 dogs and 16 cats with a diagnosis of TOF as determined via echocardiography. PROCEDURES Medical records of dogs and cats were reviewed to extract information on signalment, clinical status at the time of TOF diagnosis, echocardiographic findings, and any outcome data. RESULTS The most common canine breeds were terrier types (n = 7). Most animals (28/31 [90%]) had clinical signs of TOF at the time of diagnosis, including cyanosis (16/31 [52%]). Pulmonic stenosis was characterized by a variable systolic Doppler-derived pressure gradient (median [range], 108 mm Hg [26 to 255 mm Hg]). Most ventricular septal defects were large, with a median (range) ratio of the diameter of the ventricular septal defect to that of the aorta of 0.60 (0.18 to 1.15). Median age at cardiac-related death was 23.4 months, with no significant difference between dogs and cats. Median survival time from TOF diagnosis to cardiac-related death was briefer for animals with no or low-grade heart murmur (3.4 months) than for those with higher-grade heart murmur (16.4 months). After adjustment for age and sex, having a lack of or a low- to mild-grade systolic heart murmur was significantly associated with a briefer survival time. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE With a few exceptions, cardiac-related death occurred predominantly in young adult dogs and cats with TOF, and most animals had severe clinical signs at the time of TOF diagnosis.

  3. Chernobyl accident and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.; Bonell, P.G.; Hicks, D.

    1987-01-01

    The USSR power reactor programme is first described. The reasons for the accident at the Chernobyl-4 RBMK nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986, the sequence of events that took place, and the immediate and long-term consequences are considered. A description of the RBMK-type reactors is given and the design changes resulting from the experience of the accident are explained. The source terms describing the details of the radioactivity release associated with the accident and the environmental consequences are covered in the last two sections of the report. Throughout the text comments referring to the UK Nuclear Installations Inspectorate Safety assessment principles have been inserted. (U.K.).

  4. Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robb, Kevin R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramic microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

  5. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  6. Cladribine prolongs progression-free survival and time to second treatment compared to fludarabine and high-dose chlorambucil in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Stephen P; Karlsson, Karin; Strömberg, Mats; Jønsson, Viggo; Gill, Devinder; Hammerström, Jens; Hertzberg, Mark; McLennan, Roger; Uggla, Bertil; Norman, John; Wallvik, Jonas; Sundström, Gunnel; Johansson, Hemming; Brandberg, Yvonne; Liliemark, Jan; Juliusson, Gunnar

    2014-12-01

    We conducted a randomized phase III trial to compare the efficacy and safety of two purine analogs, cladribine and fludarabine, with high-dose chlorambucil, in patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Between 1997 and 2004, 223 patients with CLL were randomly assigned to cladribine, fludarabine or chlorambucil, for six cycles of therapy with frequent health-related quality of life assessments. There was no statistical difference for the primary endpoint of overall response with cladribine (70%), fludarabine (67%) and chlorambucil (59%), or complete remission (12%, 7% and 8%), respectively. However, the median progression-free survival (25, 10, 9 months) and median time to second treatment (40, 22, 21 months) were superior with cladribine. There was no significant difference in overall survival (96, 82 and 91 months), nor in toxicity or HRQoL assessments. Monotherapy with cladribine gives superior PFS and longer response duration than fludarabine and chlorambucil as first-line treatment of CLL.

  7. Effect of Initial Population Density of Criconemella xenoplax on Reducing Sugars, Free Amino Acids, and Survival of Peach Seedlings over Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyczepir, A P; Reilly, C C; Okie, W R

    1987-07-01

    Percentage of mortality, growth suppression, and changes in free amino acid and reducing sugar content in root and (or) stem tissue of Nemaguard peach seedlings were studied in the greenhouse in relation to time and eight different initial population densities (Pi) of Criconemella xenoplax. After 90 and 180 days, free amino acid content in root tissue significantly increased with increasing nematode numbers. Suppression of root volume, dry root and stem weight, height increase, plant survival, and content of reducing sugars in root tissue were detected at 180 and 270 days and following pruning. All criteria were negatively correlated with nematode Pi. Changes in growth, metabolic parameters, and survival percentage were attributed to Pi density of C. xenoplax, duration of the experiment, and nematode reproduction rate.

  8. Statistical analysis of sudden chemical leakage accidents reported in China between 2006 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Ping, Hua; Ma, Zhi-Hong; Pan, Li-Gang

    2014-04-01

    According to the data from authoritative sources, 1,400 sudden leakage accidents occurred in China during 2006 to 2011 were investigated, in which, 666 accidents were used for statistical characteristic abstracted with no or little damage. The research results were as follows: (1) Time fluctuation: the yearly number of sudden leakage accidents is shown to be decreasing from 2006 to 2010, and a slightly increase in 2011. Sudden leakage accidents occur mainly in summer, and more than half of the accidents occur from May to September. (2) Regional distribution: the accidents are highly concentrated in the coastal area, in which accidents result from small and medium-sized enterprises more easily than that of the larger ones. (3) Pollutants: hazardous chemicals are up to 95 % of sudden leakage accidents. (4) Steps: transportation represents almost half of the accidents, followed by production, usage, storage, and discard. (5) Pollution and casualties: it is easy to cause environmental pollution and casualties. (6) Causes: more than half of the cases were caused by human factor, followed by management reason, and equipment failure. However, sudden chemical leakage may also be caused by high temperature, rain, wet road, and terrain. (7) The results of principal component analysis: five factors are extracted by the principal component analysis, including pollution, casualties, regional distribution, steps, and month. According to the analysis of the accident, the characteristics, causes, and damages of the sudden leakage accident will be investigated. Therefore, advices for prevention and rescue should be acquired.

  9. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  10. Accident prevention in SME using ORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Troen, Hanne

    2008-01-01

    Risk perception in SMEs is normally low, and this is closely related to the fact that the chance of a mall enterprise experiencing a serious accident is very small compared to companies that employ a large workforce. This is a fact even though the SMEs together have a higher accident frequency...... compared with large enterprises. To reach the SMEs we must find a way of supporting them, because they normally have neither the time nor the resources to acquire the knowledge and awareness necessary for working with their own safety. The Occupational Risk Model (ORM) developed by the Dutch Workgroup...... safety in SMEs, as the project also focuses on management factors that can motivate the SMEs to increase their risk awareness and own initiatives. The project is now half way through the project period....

  11. Estimating the frequency of nuclear accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Raju, Suvrat

    2016-01-01

    We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents with some simplifying assumptions regarding their probability distribution is sufficient to rule out the validity of the industry's analyses at a very high confidence level. We show that this conclusion is robust against any reasonable assumed variation of safety standards over time, and across regions. The debate on nuclear liability indicates that the industry has independently arrived at this conclusion. We pay special attention to the Indian situation, where we show that the existing operating experience provides insufficient data to make any reliable claims about the safety of future reactors. We briefly discuss some policy implications.

  12. Three Mile Island Accident Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Three Mile Island Accident Data consists of mostly upper air and wind observations immediately following the nuclear meltdown occurring on March 28, 1979, near...

  13. 某铜矿矽肺患者生存时间分析%Survival time analysis of the silicosis patients in a copper mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏万夫; 丁建球; 郭仲伟; 张秀军

    2012-01-01

    Objective:To analyze the survival time and main influencing factors on the death from silicosis in a copper mine. Methods; Retrospective analysis was carried out in 48 deaths from silicosis in a copper'mine regarding the clinical history and report of the occupational disease to calculate the age of exposure to dust, duration of exposure, attack age and post-pneumoconiosis life span, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was undertaken to compare the survival of different groups. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the survival time and important influencing factors. Results: Of the 48 patients, mean age of exposure to dust was (24. 4 ± 6. 0); mean duration of exposure, (22. 5 ± 8.7)years; mean attack age, (62.6 ± 11.1) and mean survival time(95 % CI) ,(14.0 ±2.4) years. No significant difference was found between different stages of disease on death of silicosis, associated pulmonary tuberculosis and lung cancer, smoking history and survival rate ( P > 0. 05 ) . Conclusion; Survival analysis can be useful statistics to deal with the death from silicosis, and survival of silicosis patients is associated with a variety of influencing factors. Besides, the parameters, including duration of exposure, age of exposure to dust and attack age, may be sufficiently to estimate the progression and outcomes of prevention of this disease.%目的:应用生存分析方法研究矽肺死亡病例的生存时间和相关影响因素.方法:收集某铜矿企业48例矽肺病死亡患者的病历资料和职业病报告,建立数据库,计算接尘年龄、接尘工龄、发病年龄、生存时间等,采用Kaplan-Meier法描述不同组别矽肺死亡病例的生存率,运用COX比例风险模型分析矽肺死亡病例生存时间影响因素.结果:48例肺病死亡患者平均接尘年龄为(24.4±6.0)岁,平均接尘工龄(22.5±8.7)年,平均发病年龄(62.6±11.1)岁;生存时间中位数(P25,P75)为14.0(7,22)年;死亡时最高矽肺分期

  14. Telematics and Gender Discrimination: Some Usage-Based Evidence on Whether Men’s Risk of Accidents Differs from Women’s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes Ayuso

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD, or usage-based automobile insurance (UBI, is a policy agreement tied to vehicle usage. In this paper we analyze the effect of the distance traveled on the risk of accidents among young drivers with a PAYD policy. We use regression models for survival data to estimate how long it takes them to have their first accident at fault during the coverage period. Our empirical application with real data is presented and shows that gender differences are mainly attributable to the intensity of use. Indeed, although gender has a significant effect in explaining the time to the first crash, this effect is no longer significant when the average distance traveled per day is introduced in the model. This suggests that gender differences in the risk of accidents are, to a large extent, attributable to the fact that men drive more often than women. Estimates of the time to the first accident for different driver risk types are presented. We conclude that no gender discrimination is necessary if telematics provides enough information on driving habits.

  15. Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, Kazuki

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

  16. Effects of Car Accidents on Three-Lane Traffic Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A three-lane traffic flow model is proposed to investigate the effect of car accidents on the traffic flow. The model is an extension of the full velocity difference (FVD model by taking into account the lane changing. The extended lane-changing rules are presented to model the lane-changing behaviour. The cases that the car accidents occupy the exterior or interior lane, the medium lane, and two lanes are studied by numerical simulations. The time-space diagrams and the current diagrams are presented, and the traffic jams are investigated. The results show that the car accident has a different effect on the traffic flow when it occupies different lanes. The car accidents have a more serious effect on the whole road when they occupy two lanes. The larger the density is, the greater the influence on the traffic flow becomes.

  17. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  18. Radiological Consequence Analyses Following a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In order to reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a simulator which is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator) for overseas nuclear accident has been developed. It is composed of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. For the source-term estimation module, the representative reactor types were selected as CPR1000, BWR5 and BWR6 for China, Japan and Taiwan, respectively. Considering the design characteristics of each reactor type, the source-term estimation module simulates the transient of design basis accident and severe accident. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials and prints out the air and ground concentration. Using the concentration result, the dose assessment module calculates effective dose and thyroid dose in the Korean Peninsula region. In this study, a hypothetical severe accident in Japan was simulated to demonstrate the function of NANAS. As a result, the radiological consequence to Korea was estimated from the accident. PC-based nuclear accident simulator, NANAS, has been developed. NANAS contains three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. The source-term estimation module simulates a nuclear accident for the representative reactor types in China, Japan and Taiwan. Since the maximum calculation speed is 16 times than real time, it is possible to estimate the source-term release swiftly in case of the emergency. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials in wide range including the Northeast Asia. Final results of the dose assessment module are a map projection and time chart of effective dose and thyroid dose. A hypothetical accident in Japan was simulated by NANAS. The radioactive materials were released during the first 24 hours and the source

  19. Comparison of nested case-control and survival analysis methodologies for analysis of time-dependent exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Platt Robert W

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of exposures that vary with time require an additional level of methodological complexity to account for the time-dependence of exposure. This study compares a nested case-control approach for the study of time-dependent exposure with cohort analysis using Cox regression including time-dependent covariates. Methods A cohort of 1340 subjects with four fixed and seven time-dependent covariates was used for this study. Nested case-control analyses were repeated 100 times for each of 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 controls per case, and point estimates were compared to those obtained using Cox regression on the full cohort. Computational efficiencies were evaluated by comparing central processing unit times required for analysis of the cohort at sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 times its initial size. Results Nested case-control analyses yielded results that were similar to results of Cox regression on the full cohort. Cox regression was found to be 125 times slower than the nested case-control approach (using four controls per case. Conclusions The nested case-control approach is a useful alternative for cohort analysis when studying time-dependent exposures. Its superior computational efficiency may be particularly useful when studying rare outcomes in databases, where the ability to analyze larger sample sizes can improve the power of the study.

  20. Evaluation Metrics Applied to Accident Tolerant Fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton; Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner

    2014-10-01

    The safe, reliable, and economic operation of the nation’s nuclear power reactor fleet has always been a top priority for the United States’ nuclear industry. Continual improvement of technology, including advanced materials and nuclear fuels, remains central to the industry’s success. Decades of research combined with continual operation have produced steady advancements in technology and have yielded an extensive base of data, experience, and knowledge on light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance under both normal and accident conditions. One of the current missions of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is to develop nuclear fuels and claddings with enhanced accident tolerance for use in the current fleet of commercial LWRs or in reactor concepts with design certifications (GEN-III+). Accident tolerance became a focus within advanced LWR research upon direction from Congress following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting tsunami, and subsequent damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant complex. The overall goal of ATF development is to identify alternative fuel system technologies to further enhance the safety, competitiveness and economics of commercial nuclear power. Enhanced accident tolerant fuels would endure loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer period of time than the current fuel system while maintaining or improving performance during normal operations. The U.S. DOE is supporting multiple teams to investigate a number of technologies that may improve fuel system response and behavior in accident conditions, with team leadership provided by DOE national laboratories, universities, and the nuclear industry. Concepts under consideration offer both evolutionary and revolutionary changes to the current nuclear fuel system. Mature concepts will be tested in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory beginning in Summer 2014 with additional concepts being

  1. Road Traffic Accidents: A Wild Life Exterminator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadiseh Kavandi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Once commonly traced in various parts of Southwest Asia, the Iranian cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus, a disparagingly endangered cheetah subspecies, seems to have been driven to extinction. Restricted to its only remained appropriate habitat, The Iranian cheetah has barely survived in Iran's Dasht-e Kavir plateau. Throughout the 1970s, about 200 cheetahs were estimated to live in seven protected areas in Iran (1. Nevertheless, the figures dramatically declined to 50 and 60 individuals in 2005–2006. Over ten years, Iranian researchers captured images of 76 individual cheetahs using 80 camera traps implanted throughout the Dasht-e Kavir plateau (2. Disappointingly in 2011, camera traps captured only 20 individuals in the protected areas (2, 3. What adds insult to the injury is knowing the fact that two-thirds of cheetah deaths in 2012–2013 were due to road accidents(4.      Beside the human fatalities and injuries, road traffic accidents remain as serious threats for wildlife. Although numerous measures are taken to hinder the extinction of this subspecies, efforts should be concentrated on long-term planning at both national and international levels to raise awareness and promote willingness to address this ongoing yet controllable damage.

  2. Radiation damage aspects of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parmentier, N.; Nenot, J.C. (CEA Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire)

    1989-01-01

    During the night of 25 to 26 April 1986, the most severe nuclear accident occurred at the Chernobyl power stations. It resulted in the irradiation of 237 workers at dose levels justifying medical care. The most severe cases (115) were hospitalized in Moscow, with 20 patients with doses higher than 6 Gy. In most cases, the treatment was classical, based on transfusion of red cells and platelets, and heavy supportive therapy. For 19 patients with severe aplasia, transplantations of bone marrow (13) or foetal liver (6) were decided. Of these patients only one survived, which justifies the statement from U.S.S.R. physicians: after an accident the indications of grafting are limited and its risks may not justify its use. Most of the complications were related to radiation burns which involved 56 victims and resulted in fatal outcomes in at least 19 patients. The population was evacuated from a 30 km zone around the site; based on direct measurements and calculations, the collective dose was evaluated at 1.6 x 10{sup 4} man Sv, with an individual average lower than 250 mSv. The European part of U.S.S.R. with 75 million persons is supposed to have received a collective dose likely to increase the natural mortality by less than 0.1%. The numbers with cancer in the Northern Hemisphere might increase by 0.004% over the next 50 years.

  3. Radiation damage aspects of the chernobyl accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmentier, N.; Nenot, J. C.

    During the night of 25 to 26 April 1986, the most severe nuclear accident occurred at the Chernobyl power station, about 150km north of Kiev, in the Ukraine. It resulted in the irradiation of 237 workers at dose levels justifying medical care. The most severe cases (115) were hospitalized in Moscow, with 20 patients with doses higher than 6 Gy. In most cases, the treatment was classical, based on transfusion of red cells and platelets, and heavy supportive therapy. For 19 patients with severe aplasia, transplantations of bone marrow (13) or foetal liver (6) were decided. Of these patients only one survived, which justifies the statement from U.S.S.R. physicians: after an accident the indications of grafting are limited and its risks may not justify its use. Most of the complications were related to radiation burns which involved 56 victims and resulted in fatal outcomes in at least 19 patients. The population was evacuated from a 30 km zone around the site; based on direct measurements and calculations, the collective dose was evaluated at 1.6 × 10 4 man Sv, with an individual average lower than 250 mSv. The European part of U.S.S.R. with 75 million persons is supposed to have received a collective dose likely to increase the natural mortality by less than 0.1%. The numbers with cancer in the Northern Hemisphere might increase by 0.004% over the next 50 years.

  4. FACTORS AFFECTING ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BENGHAZI, LIBYA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ghaweel, Ibrahim; Mursi, Saleh A.; Jack, Joel P.; Joel, Irene

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the factors responsible for road traffic accidents in Benghazi. Material and Methods: Retrospective and descriptive studies were done in the years 2006-2007. The data was collected from Traffic and License Department, Benghazi. The data were analyzed, based on fatalities, the severely handicapped, hit and run victims and were correlated with age, sex, time, environmental factors, type of roads, etc. Results: One-Thousand-Two-Hundred-Sixty-Five accidents occurred between the years 2006-2007 within the Benghazi city limits; 11.14% of the injuries were fatal; 67.35% of the victims had severe injuries and 21.51% escaped with minor injuries. Table 1 shows that 73.04% lost their lives within the city limits, 13.47% on the fly-over, and 2.12% on minor roads connected to main roads within the city limits. The mean of the accidents and its standard deviation were 16.66± 25.67 with a variance of fatality of 1.54. Conclusion: It is concluded from the studies that major road traffic accidents occur because of environmental stress factors. In addition, fatalities and the seriousness of the accidents depend on a number of factors such as the age of the vehicle, safety measures, human error and time and place of accident. PMID:23012183

  5. Time to retire--time to die? A prospective cohort study of the effects of early retirement on long-term survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Hilke; Müller, Rolf; Helmert, Uwe

    2009-07-01

    In a long-term prospective cohort study we try to assess selective and protective impacts of early retirement on life expectancy. The results are based on the members of a compulsory German health insurance fund (Gmünder Ersatzkasse). We analyzed 88,399 men and 41,276 women who retired between the ages of 50 and 65 from January 1990 to December 2004. Our main outcome measures are hazard ratios for death adjusted for age, sex, marital and socioeconomic status, year of observation, age at retirement, hospitalization, and form of retirement scheme. We found a significantly higher mortality risk among pensioners with reduced earning capacities than among old-age pensioners who either left the labor market between the ages of 56 and 60 or between 61 and 65. The youngest male and female pensioners who left the labor market between the ages of 51 and 55 because of their reduced earning capacity faced the highest mortality risk. But healthy people who retire early do not experience shorter long-term survival than those who retire late. On the contrary, if we take into consideration the amount of days spent in hospital during the last 2 years prior to retirement, early retirement in fact lowers mortality risks significantly by 12% for men and by 23% for women. Thus with respect to mortality, early retirement reflects both selective and protective processes. First of all, individuals with poor health and lower survival chances are filtered out of the labor market. However, healthy pensioners may be protected during retirement. For the former, early retirement is a necessity, for the latter it is an asset. Pension reformers should take health differentials into consideration when cutting back pension programs and increasing retirement age.

  6. The Impact of Alemtuzumab and Basiliximab Induction on Patient Survival and Time to Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome in Double Lung Transplantation Recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Y; Jayarajan, S N; Taghavi, S; Cordova, F C; Patel, N; Shiose, A; Leotta, E; Criner, G J; Guy, T S; Wheatley, G H; Kaiser, L R; Toyoda, Y

    2016-08-01

    We examined the effect of alemtuzumab and basiliximab induction therapy on patient survival and freedom from bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in double lung transplantation. The United Network for Organ Sharing database was reviewed for adult double lung transplant recipients from 2006 to 2013. The primary outcome was risk-adjusted all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included time to BOS. There were 6117 patients were identified, of whom 738 received alemtuzumab, 2804 received basiliximab, and 2575 received no induction. Alemtuzumab recipients had higher lung allocation scores compared with basiliximab and no-induction recipients (41.4 versus 37.9 versus 40.7, p alemtuzumab and basiliximab recipients compared with patients who received no induction (2321 versus 2352 versus 1967 days, p = 0.001). Alemtuzumab (hazard ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.95, p = 0.009) and basiliximab induction (0.88, 0.80-0.98, p = 0.015) were independently associated with survival on multivariate analysis. At 5 years, alemtuzumab recipients had a lower incidence of BOS (22.7% versus 55.4 versus 55.9%), and its use was independently associated with lower risk of developing BOS on multivariate analysis. While both induction therapies were associated with improved survival, patients who received alemtuzumab had greater median freedom from BOS.

  7. Endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation do not influence ablation success, recurrence-free survival or differentiated thyroid cancer-related mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Riemann, Burkhard [University Hospital Muenster, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Muenster (Germany); Maeder, Uwe; Reiners, Christoph [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); Verburg, Frederik A. [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); RWTH University Hospital Aachen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Aachen (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Based on a single older study it is established dogma that TSH levels should be ≥30 mU/l at the time of postoperative {sup 131}I ablation in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. We sought to determine whether endogenous TSH levels, i.e. after levothyroxine withdrawal, at the time of ablation influence ablation success rates, recurrence-free survival and DTC-related mortality. A total of 1,873 patients without distant metastases referred for postoperative adjuvant {sup 131}I therapy were retrospectively included from 1991 onwards. Successful ablation was defined as stimulated Tg <1 μg/l. Age, gender and the presence of lymph node metastases were independent determinants of TSH levels at the time of ablation. TSH levels were not significantly related to ablation success rates (p = 0.34), recurrence-free survival (p = 0.29) or DTC -elated mortality (p = 0.82), but established risk factors such as T-stage, lymph node metastases and age were. Ablation was successful in 230 of 275 patients (83.6 %) with TSH <30 mU/l and in 1,359 of 1,598 patients (85.0 %) with TSH ≥30 mU/l. The difference was not significant (p = 0.55). Of the whole group of 1,873 patients, 21 had recurrent disease. There were no significant differences in recurrence rates between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.16). Ten of the 1,873 patients died of DTC. There were no significant differences in DTC-specific survival between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.53). The precise endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation are not related to the ablation success rates, recurrence free survival and DTC related mortality. The established dogma that TSH levels need to be ≥30 mU/l at the time of {sup 131}I ablation can be discarded. (orig.)

  8. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Laboratory; Chichester, Heather [Idaho National Laboratory; Johns, Jesse [Texas A& M University; Teague, Melissa [Idaho National Laboratory; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant

  9. [Accidents of fulguration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virenque, C; Laguerre, J

    1976-01-01

    Fulguration, first electric accident in which the man was a victim, is to day better known. A clap of thunder is decomposed in two elements: lightning, and thunder. Lightning is caused by an electrical discharge, either within a cloud, or between two clouds, or, above all, between a cloud and the surface of the ground. Experimental equipments owned by the French Electricity Company and by the Atomic Energy Commission, have allowed to photograph lightnings and to measure certain physical characteristics (Intensity variable between 25 to 100 kA, voltage variable between 20 to 1 000 kV). The frequency of storms was learned: the isokeraunic level, in France, is about 20, meaning that thunder is heard twenty days during one year. Man may be stricken by thunder by direct hit, by sudden bursting, by earth current, or through various conductors. The electric charge which reached him may go to the earth directly by contact with the ground or may dissipate in the air through a bony promontory (elbow). The total number of victims, "wounded" or deceased, is not now known by statistics. Death comes by insulation breakdown of one of several anatomic cephalic formations: skull, meninx, brain. Many various lesions may happen in survivors: loss of consciousness, more or less long, sensorial or motion deficiencies. All these signs are momentary and generally reversible. Besides one may observe much more intense lesions on the skin: burns and, over all, characteristic aborescence (skin effect by high frequency current). The heart is protected, contrarily to what happens with industrial electrocution. The curative treatment is merely symptomatic : reanimation, surgery for burns or associated traumatic lesions. A prevention is researched to help the lonely man, in the country or in the mountains in the houses (lightning conductor, Faraday cage), in vehicles (aircraft, cars, ships). The mysterious and unforseeable character of lightning still stays, leaving a door opened for numerous

  10. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  11. Mesenchymal stem cells increase skin graft survival time and up-regulate PD-L1 expression in splenocytes of mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moravej, Ali; Geramizadeh, Bita; Azarpira, Negar; Zarnani, Amir-Hassan; Yaghobi, Ramin; Kalani, Mehdi; Khosravi, Maryam; Kouhpayeh, Amin; Karimi, Mohammad-Hossein

    2017-02-01

    Recently, mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have gained considerable interests as hopeful therapeutic cells in transplantation due to their immunoregulatory functions. But exact mechanisms underlying MSCs immunoregulatory function is not fully understood. Herein, in addition to investigate the ability of MSCs to prolong graft survival time, the effects of them on the expression of PD-L1 and IDO immunomodulatory molecules in splenocytes of skin graft recipient mice was clarified. To achieve this goal, full-thickness skins were transplanted from C57BL/6 to BALB/c mice. MSCs were isolated from bone marrow of BALB/c mice and injected to the recipient mice. Skin graft survival was monitored daily to determine graft rejection time. On days 2, 5 and 10 post skin transplantation, serum cytokine levels and expression of PD-L1 and IDO mRNA and protein in the splenocytes of recipient mice were evaluated. The results showed that administration of MSCs prolonged skin graft survival time from 11 to 14 days. On days 2 and 5 post transplantation, splenocytes PD-L1 expression and IL-10 serum level in MSCs treated mice were higher than those in the controls, while IL-2 and IFN-γ levels were lower. Rejection in MSCs treated mice was accompanied by an increase in IL-2 and IFN-γ, and decrease in PD-L1 expression and IL-10 level. No difference in the expression of IDO between MSCs treated mice and controls was observed. In conclusion, we found that one of the mechanisms underlying MSCs immunomodulatory function could be up-regulating PD-L1 expression.

  12. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H; Sekiya, N; Masutani, Y; Sakumi, A; Mukasa, A; Nakagawa, K [The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, JP (Japan)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by

  13. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...... the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road...

  14. Revised accident source terms for light-water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soffer, L. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1995-02-01

    This paper presents revised accident source terms for light-water reactors incorporating the severe accident research insights gained in this area over the last 15 years. Current LWR reactor accident source terms used for licensing date from 1962 and are contained in Regulatory Guides 1.3 and 1.4. These specify that 100% of the core inventory of noble gases and 25% of the iodine fission products are assumed to be instantaneously available for release from the containment. The chemical form of the iodine fission products is also assumed to be predominantly elemental iodine. These assumptions have strongly affected present nuclear air cleaning requirements by emphasizing rapid actuation of spray systems and filtration systems optimized to retain elemental iodine. A proposed revision of reactor accident source terms and some im implications for nuclear air cleaning requirements was presented at the 22nd DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference. A draft report was issued by the NRC for comment in July 1992. Extensive comments were received, with the most significant comments involving (a) release fractions for both volatile and non-volatile species in the early in-vessel release phase, (b) gap release fractions of the noble gases, iodine and cesium, and (c) the timing and duration for the release phases. The final source term report is expected to be issued in late 1994. Although the revised source terms are intended primarily for future plants, current nuclear power plants may request use of revised accident source term insights as well in licensing. This paper emphasizes additional information obtained since the 22nd Conference, including studies on fission product removal mechanisms, results obtained from improved severe accident code calculations and resolution of major comments, and their impact upon the revised accident source terms. Revised accident source terms for both BWRS and PWRS are presented.

  15. Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Andrew W

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1980 to 2009. The paper uses a new set of data for the European Union together with Norway and Switzerland, assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author's own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is -6.3% per year from 1990 to 2009, with a 95% confidence interval of -8.7% to -3.9%. The estimated accident rate in 2009 is 1.35 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2009 of 6.0. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990-2009 is 4.10, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 24.6 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2009. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings remained unchanged in 1990-2009. The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Construction accident narrative classification: An evaluation of text mining techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Yang Miang; Ubeynarayana, C U

    2017-08-31

    Learning from past accidents is fundamental to accident prevention. Thus, accident and near miss reporting are encouraged by organizations and regulators. However, for organizations managing large safety databases, the time taken to accurately classify accident and near miss narratives will be very significant. This study aims to evaluate the utility of various text mining classification techniques in classifying 1000 publicly available construction accident narratives obtained from the US OSHA website. The study evaluated six machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT) and Naive Bayes (NB), and found that SVM produced the best performance in classifying the test set of 251 cases. Further experimentation with tokenization of the processed text and non-linear SVM were also conducted. In addition, a grid search was conducted on the hyperparameters of the SVM models. It was found that the best performing classifiers were linear SVM with unigram tokenization and radial basis function (RBF) SVM with uni-gram tokenization. In view of its relative simplicity, the linear SVM is recommended. Across the 11 labels of accident causes or types, the precision of the linear SVM ranged from 0.5 to 1, recall ranged from 0.36 to 0.9 and F1 score was between 0.45 and 0.92. The reasons for misclassification were discussed and suggestions on ways to improve the performance were provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Motorcycle Fatal Accidents in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Seyyed Nozadi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: All over the world motorcycle accident are one of the major causes of road death and injury. This study aimed to determine the pattern of Motorcycle Fatal Accidents in Mashhad-Iran. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out in 2006 to analyze the epidemiological pattern of the mo­tor­cycle accident in Mashhad, North-Eastern Iran. Three hundred fifty cases of motorcycle accidents were included. Data gath­ering tool was a standard questionnaire. The compiled data were analyzed using SPSS11 and χ 2 test. The significance level was considered 0.05 in all statistical tests.Results: In the time span of the study, 350 cases of motorcycle accident occurred, most of which happened at 8pm to 12pm. In 119 cases, the motorcyclist was the blameful rider. Generally, 84.2% of the motorcycle riders did not have safety hel­mets. About two third of blameful motorcycle riders (63.1% were less than 25 years old. The major cause of the accidents (55.1% was due to neglecting the Yield Right of Way. Motorcycle riders endanger pedestrian, other drivers, passengers and their own life.Conclusion: Paying attention to cultural and instructional issues of correct motorcycle riding and performing appropriate monitor­ing in traffic and transportation system such as honoring our and others safety and setting limitations on using this vehi­cle by the youth is of great importance. .

  18. Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, J.M.; Otten, R.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves

  19. Smoking onset and the time-varying effects of self-efficacy, environmental smoking, and smoking-specific parenting by using discrete-time survival analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, J.M.; Otten, R.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the timing of smoking onset during mid- or late adolescence and the time-varying effects of refusal self-efficacy, parental and sibling smoking behavior, smoking behavior of friends and best friend, and parental smoking-specific communication. We used data from five annual waves

  20. The Art of Creating Attractive Consumer Experiences at the Right Time: Skills Marketers Will Need to Survive and Thrive

    OpenAIRE

    Lemon Katherine N.

    2016-01-01

    New technologies have made today’s marketing faster, more mobile, more location-based, more digital, more virtual, and more automatized than ever. In this new world, marketers need to be “real-time relevant” – to gain awareness, to change perceptions and to spur action. They need to have their content in the right channel, format, time and context – from a consumer’s perspective. Only then do they at least have a chance of the consumer attending to the information and being influenced by it. ...

  1. An analysis on the severe accident progression with operator recovery actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Song, J.H., E-mail: dosa@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, T.W.; Kim, D.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • Severe accident progression for the station blackout and SBLOCA accident. • Analyses on APR1400 using MELCOR. • Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up. • Determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. • Insight for the operator recovery actions for the severe accident management. - Abstract: Analyses on the severe accident progressions for the station blackout (SBO) accident and small break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiated severe accident were performed for APR1400 by using MELCOR computer code. Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up using a depressurization system and safety injection pump were simulated in parallel with a simulation of the severe accident progression. Sensitivity studies on the operator actions were performed to investigate the changes in the timing of the reactor vessel failure and to determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. Sensitivity analyses on the effect of major modeling parameters were performed additionally to quantify the uncertainties in timing. It is found that the operator has about 2 h for the recovery actions after the indication of core damage by the signal of core exit thermocouple (CET) for the SBLOCA initiated severe accident, while the operator has to take immediate actions after the indication of core damage by CET for the SBO accident.

  2. Gender and timing during ontogeny matter: effects of a temporary high temperature on survival, body size and colouration in Harmonia axyridis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Knapp

    Full Text Available The ambient temperature experienced during development is a crucial factor affecting survival and adult phenotype in ectotherms. Moreover, the exact response of individuals to different temperature regimes is frequently sex-specific. This sex-specific response can result in varying levels of sexual dimorphism according to the experienced conditions. The majority of studies have investigated the effects of temperature on individuals reared under a constant temperature regime throughout their whole preimaginal development, whereas information on stage-dependent variation in temperature effects is scarce. Here we investigate how the stage at which elevated temperature is experienced influences survival, adult body size and colouration in the harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis form succinea. The effects of timing of exposure to elevated temperature on the adult phenotype are assessed separately for males and females. Control individuals were reared at a constant temperature of 20 °C. Beetles in other treatments were additionally exposed to 33 °C for 48 hours during the following developmental stages: egg, 1(st to 2(nd larval instar, 3(rd larval instar, 4(th larval instar and pupa. Exposure to an elevated temperature during the early developmental stages resulted in lower survival, but the adult phenotype of survivors was almost unaffected. Exposure to an elevated temperature during the later developmental stages (4(th larval instar or pupa resulted in the decreased melanisation of elytra, decreased structural body size and increased dry mass. Furthermore, the timing of high temperature exposure affected the degree of sexual dimorphism in elytral melanisation and dry mass. We demonstrate that the effects of elevated temperature can vary according to the developmental stage at exposure. Detailed information on how ambient temperature affects the developmental biology of ectotherms is crucial for modeling population growth and predicting the spread

  3. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was preventable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

    2015-04-01

    On 11 March 2011, the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history triggered a large tsunami, which will probably be remembered from the dramatic live pictures in a country, which is possibly the most tsunami-prepared in the world. The earthquake and tsunami caused a major nuclear power plant (NPP) accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The accident was likely more severe than the 1979 Three Mile Island and less severe than the Chernobyl 1986 accidents. Yet, after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had hit the Madras Atomic Power Station there had been renewed interest in the resilience of NPPs to tsunamis. The 11 March 2011 tsunami hit the Onagawa, Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, and Tokai Dai-ni NPPs, all located approximately in a 230km stretch along the east coast of Honshu. The Onagawa NPP was the closest to the source and was hit by an approximately height of 13m tsunami, of the same height as the one that hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi. Even though the Onagawa site also subsided by 1m, the tsunami did not reach to the main critical facilities. As the International Atomic Energy Agency put it, the Onagawa NPP survived the event "remarkably undamaged." At Fukushima Dai-ichi, the three reactors in operation were shut down due to strong ground shaking. The earthquake damaged all offsite electric transmission facilities. Emergency diesel generators (EDGs) provided back up power and started cooling down the reactors. However, the tsunami flooded the facilities damaging 12 of its 13 EDGs and caused a blackout. Among the consequences were hydrogen explosions that released radioactive material in the environment. It is unfortunately clear that TEPCO and Japan's principal regulator Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) had failed in providing a professional hazard analysis for the plant, even though their last assessment had taken place only months before the accident. The main reasons are the following. One

  4. Effect of packaging and storage time on survival of Listeria monocytogenes on kippered beef steak and turkey tenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uppal, Kamaldeep K; Getty, Kelly J K; Boyle, Elizabeth A E; Harper, Nigel M; Lobaton-Sulabo, April Shayne S; Barry, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    The objective of our study was to determine effect of packaging method and storage time on reducing Listeria monocytogenes in shelf-stable meat snacks. Commercially available kippered beef steak strips and turkey tenders were dipped into a 5-strain L. monocytogenes cocktail, and dried at 23 °C until a water activity of 0.80 was achieved. Inoculated samples were packaged with 4 treatments: (1) vacuum, (2) nitrogen flushed with oxygen scavenger, (3) heat sealed with oxygen scavenger, and (4) heat sealed without oxygen scavenger. Samples were stored at 23 °C and evaluated for L. monocytogenes levels at 0, 24, 48, and 72 h. Initial levels (time 0) of L. monocytogenes were approximately 5.7 log CFU/cm² for steak and tenders. After 24 h of storage time, a 1 log CFU/cm² reduction of L. monocytogenes was observed for turkey tenders for all packaging treatments. After 48 h, turkey tenders showed >1 log CFU/cm² reduction of L. monocytogenes for all packaging treatments except for vacuum, where only 0.9 log CFU/cm² reduction was observed. After 72 h, reductions for all packaging treatments for turkey tenders ranged from 1.5 to 2.4 log CFU/cm². For kippered beef steak, there was no interaction between the packaging treatments and all storage times (P > 0.05) whereas, time was different (P packaging treatments and a 2.1 log CFU/ cm² L. monocytogenes reduction at 72 h of storage time. Processors of kippered beef steak and turkey tenders could use a combination of vacuum or nitrogen-flushing or heat sealed with an oxygen scavenger packaging methods and a holding time of 24 h prior to shipping to reduce potential L. monocytogenes numbers by ≥1 log. However, processors should be encouraged to hold packaged product a minimum of 72 h to enhance the margin of safety for L. monocytogenes control. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®

  5. Statistical Analysis and Safety Management on China's Coal Mine Gas Accident from 2006 to 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHOU Xuan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available . From 2006 to 2015 the causes and characteristics of coal mine gas accidents are analyzed from the aspect of the death toll and number of accidents in China based on the theory of statistics. And the results show that the level of gas accident casualties is obviously regional distribution and points and time distribution is relatively concentrated as well. Therefore, the corresponding management and measures are put forward based on Orbit Intersecting theory.

  6. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  7. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  8. Nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, C S

    1989-09-01

    Twenty-two nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies utilizing the fast-pulse Health Physics Research Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been conducted since 1965. These studies have provided a total of 62 different organizations a forum for discussion of criticality accident dosimetry, an opportunity to test their neutron and gamma-ray dosimetry systems under a variety of simulated criticality accident conditions, and the experience of comparing results with reference dose values as well as with the measured results obtained by others making measurements under identical conditions. Sixty-nine nuclear accidents (27 with unmoderated neutron energy spectra and 42 with eight different shielded spectra) have been simulated in the studies. Neutron doses were in the 0.2-8.5 Gy range and gamma doses in the 0.1-2.0 Gy range. A total of 2,289 dose measurements (1,311 neutron, 978 gamma) were made during the intercomparisons. The primary methods of neutron dosimetry were activation foils, thermoluminescent dosimeters, and blood sodium activation. The main methods of gamma dose measurement were thermoluminescent dosimeters, radiophotoluminescent glass, and film. About 68% of the neutron measurements met the accuracy guidelines (+/- 25%) and about 52% of the gamma measurements met the accuracy criterion (+/- 20%) for accident dosimetry.

  9. [Relationship between symptoms of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome and traffic accidents in the city drivers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkoyunlu, Muhammed Emin; Kart, Levent; Uludağ, Murat; Bayram, Mehmet; Alisha, Gersi; Özçelik, Hatice; Karaköse, Fatmanur; Sezer, Murat

    2013-01-01

    There is a high tendency for traffic accidents in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Thus it's recommended to investigate OSAS symptoms before certification of professional drivers. However, to what degree OSAS symptoms predict traffic accidents is not clear. We aimed to investigate the relationship between OSAS symptoms and traffic accidents. Five hundred twenty bus drivers working at Istanbul Electricity, Tramway and Tunnel (IETT) general management were randomly selected. Berlin questionnaire was applied which included demographic data, accident ratios, total duration in profession, duration of working in a day and OSAS symptoms. Epworth sleepiness score (ESS) test was applied to assess day time slepiness. All drivers were male. Snoring were present in 324 (65.7%) of participants. Traffic accident history were present in 259 (49.7%) of drivers. Significant relationship was present between traffic accident and only daytime sleepiness among the OSAS symptoms. The mean of accident/year ratio of all participants were 0.092. Mean of ESS was 7.3 ± 3.2 for all participants. There is a positive correlation between ESS and accident/year ratio (r= 0.57, p= 0.012). Only daytime sleepiness among OSAS symptoms is related with traffic accident. The questioning of OSAS symptoms alone is inadequate to estimate traffic accident risk. Thus further consideration more than symptom questioning is needed at phase of authorization of professional drivers to detect OSAS.

  10. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  11. Effects of Oral Administration of Fucoidan Extracted from Cladosiphon okamuranus on Tumor Growth and Survival Time in a Tumor-Bearing Mouse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiharu Okamoto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the anti-tumor activities of the oral administration of fucoidan extracted from Cladosiphon okamuranus using a tumor (colon 26-bearing mouse model. The materials used included low-molecular-weight fucoidan (LMWF: 6.5–40 kDa, intermediate-molecular-weight fucoidan (IMWF: 110–138 kDa and high-molecular-weight fucoidan (HMWF: 300–330 kDa. The IMWF group showed significantly suppressed tumor growth. The LMWF and HMWF groups showed significantly increased survival times compared with that observed in the control group (mice fed a fucoidan-free diet. The median survival times in the control, LMWF, IMWF and HMWF groups were 23, 46, 40 and 43 days, respectively. It was also found that oral administration of fucoidan increased the population of natural killer cells in the spleen. Furthermore, from the results of the experiment using Myd-88 knockout mice, it was found that these effects are related to gut immunity. These results suggest that fucoidan is a candidate anti-tumor functional food.

  12. Expression of aldehyde dehydrogenase family 1 member A1 and high mobility group box 1 in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma in association with survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Xu; Coordes, Annekatrin; Kaufmann, Andreas M; Albers, Andreas E

    2016-11-01

    Despite the development of novel multimodal treatment combinations in advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), outcomes remain poor. The identification of specifically validated biomarkers is required to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms, to evaluate treatment efficiency and to develop novel therapeutic targets. The present study, therefore, examined the presence of aldehyde dehydrogenase family 1 member A1 (ALDH1A1) and high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) expression in primary OSCC and analyzed the impact on survival time. In 59 patients with OSCC, the expression of ALDH1A1, p16 and HMGB1, and their clinicopathological data were analyzed. HMGB1 positivity was significantly increased in patients with T1-2 stage disease compared with T3-4 stage disease (P<0.001), whereas ALDH1A1 positivity was not. ALDH1A1(+) tumors showed significantly lower differentiation than ALDH1A1(-) tumors (P=0.018). Multivariate analysis showed that ALDH1A1 positivity (P=0.041) and nodal status (N2-3) (P=0.036) predicted a poor prognosis. In this patient cohort, ALDH1A1 and nodal status were identified as independent predictors of a shorter overall survival time. The study results, therefore, provide evidence of the prognostic value of ALDH1A1 as a marker for cancer stem cells and nodal status in OSCC patients.

  13. Improvement of recurrence-free survival after radical prostatectomy for locally advanced prostate cancer in relation to the time of surgical intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Veliev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to comparatively estimate the frequency of a positive surgical margin and 5-year biochemical recurrent-free survival (BRFS rates in patients with locally advanced prostate cancer in relation to the time of radical retropubic prostatectomy.Subjects and methods. The investigation enrolled 274 patients with prostate cancer (pT3-4N0-1M0 who were divided into 2 groups of 68 and 20 patients operated on in 1997 to 2006 and 2007 to 2012, respectively. Two surgeons made surgical interventions by the standardized procedure. The 5-year BRFS rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. A biochemical recurrence was defined as a prostatespecific antigen level of t 0.2 ng / ml in 2 consecutive measurements or as the initiation of adjuvant therapy.Results. The detection rate of a positive surgical margin decreased from 55.9 % in 1997–2006 to 37.9 % in 2007–2012 (p = 0.01; the 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 38.8 % versus 66.2 % (p < 0.001.Conclusion. These changes would probably be a result of surgeons» better experience and improved surgical techniques in the course of time.

  14. Simvastatin combined with aspirin increases the survival time of heart allograft by activating CD4(+)CD25(+) Treg cells and enhancing vascular endothelial cell protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jinguo; Gao, Bingren

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to investigate whether the combination of simvastatin and aspirin treatment prolongs the survival time of the heart allograft in rat and its underlying mechanism. Heterotopic heart transplantation was performed using Wistar rats as donors and Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats as recipients. The SD rats were randomly divided into five groups (n=20/group): sham, HT (heart transplantation), HT+simvastatin (HT+S), HT+aspirin (HT+A), and HT+aspirin+simvastatin (HT+A+S). After transplantation, at 3, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, and 40 days, the endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) expression was assessed by immunohistological staining; nitric oxide (NO) levels were analyzed by Griess assay; the activation of CD4(+)CD25(+) T regulatory lymphocytes (Tregs) was analyzed by flow cytometry; and pathological changes in the graft heart were determined by histology. Combined treatment of hearts with simvastatin and aspirin significantly prolonged the mean survival time of heart allografts [8 ± 1.2 days (n=18), 20 ± 3.4 days (n=19), 21 ± 2.8 days (n=19), and 39 ± 5.3 days (n=19) for HT, HT+S, HT+A, and HT+A+S group, respectively; HT vs. HT+A+S, PTreg-cell-induced immune tolerance and enhanced vascular endothelial cell protection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (I: Major inducement events of the accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen drilling in poor tight gas sandstone should be safe because of very low gas production. But a serious accident of fire blowout occurred during nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1. This is the first nitrogen drilling accident in China, which was beyond people's knowledge about the safety of nitrogen drilling and brought negative effects on the development of gas drilling technology still in start-up phase and resulted in dramatic reduction in application of gas drilling. In order to form a correct understanding, the accident was systematically analyzed, the major events resulting in this accident were inferred. It is discovered for the first time that violent ejection of rock clasts and natural gas occurred due to the sudden burst of downhole rock when the fractured tight gas zone was penetrated during nitrogen drilling, which has been named as “rock burst and blowout by gas bomb”, short for “rock burst”. Then all the induced events related to the rock burst are as following: upthrust force on drilling string from rock burst, bridging-off formed and destructed repeatedly at bit and centralizer, and so on. However, the most direct important event of the accident turns out to be the blockage in the blooie pipe from rock burst clasts and the resulted high pressure at the wellhead. The high pressure at the wellhead causes the blooie pipe to crack and trigged blowout and deflagration of natural gas, which is the direct presentation of the accident.

  16. The child accident repeater: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J G

    1980-04-01

    The child accident repeater is defined as one who has at least three accidents that come to medical attention within a year. The accident situation has features in common with those of the child who has a single accident through simple "bad luck", but other factors predispose him to repeated injury. In the child who has a susceptible personality, a tendency for accident repetition may be due to a breakdown in adjustment to a stressful environment. Prevention of repeat accidents should involve the usual measures considered appropriate for all children as well as an attempt to provide treatment of significant maladjustment and modification of a stressful environment.

  17. Hindsight Bias in Cause Analysis of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Atsuo Murata; Yasunari Matsushita

    2014-01-01

    It is suggested that hindsight becomes an obstacle to the objective investigation of an accident, and that the proper countermeasures for the prevention of such an accident is impossible if we view the accident with hindsight. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to prevent hindsight from occurring so that hindsight does not hinder objective and proper measures to be taken and this does not lead to a serious accident. In this study, a basic phenomenon potentially related to accidents, that is, hindsight was taken up, and an attempt was made to explore the phenomenon in order to get basically insights into the prevention of accidents caused by such a cognitive bias.

  18. Road characteristics and bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, P; Björnstig, U; Bygren, L O

    1996-12-01

    In Umeå, Sweden, defects in the physical road surface contributed to nearly half of the single bicycle accidents. The total social cost of these injuries to people amount to at least SEK 20 million (SEK 60,000 or about USD 8,500 per accident), which corresponds to the estimated loss of "eight life equivalents a year". Improved winter maintenance seems to have the greatest injury prevention potential and would probably reduce the number of injuries considerably, whereas improved road quality and modification of kerbs would reduce the most severe injuries. A local traffic safety program should try to prevent road accidents instead of handling the consequences of them. In accordance with Parliament decisions on traffic we would like to see increased investment in measures favoring bicycle traffic, where cycling is seen as a solution, not as a problem.

  19. Internal Accident Report on EDH

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Department

    2006-01-01

    The A2 Safety Code requires that, the Internal Accident Report form must be filled in by the person concerned or any witness to ensure that all the relevant services are informed. Please note that an electronic version of this form has been elaborated in collaboration with SC-IE, HR-OPS-OP and IT-AIS. Whenever possible, the electronic form shall be used. The relative icon is available on the EDH Desktop, Other tasks page, under the Safety heading, or directly here: https://edh.cern.ch/Document/Accident/. If you have any questions, please contact the SC Secretariat, tel. 75097 Please notice that the Internal Accident Report is an integral part of the Safety Code A2 and does not replace the HS50.

  20. Fukushima accident study using MELCOR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    The accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station stunned the world as the sequences played out over severals days and videos of hydrogen explosions were televised as they took place.The accidents all resulted in severe damage to the reactor cores and releases of radioactivity to the environment despite heroic measures had taken by the operating personnel.The following paper provides some background into the development of these accidents and their root causes,chief among them,the prolonged station blackout conditions that isolated the reactors from their ultimate heat sink — the ocean.The interpretations given in this paper are summarized from a recently completed report funded by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

  1. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (pengine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s).

  2. The Art of Creating Attractive Consumer Experiences at the Right Time: Skills Marketers Will Need to Survive and Thrive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemon Katherine N.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available New technologies have made today’s marketing faster, more mobile, more location-based, more digital, more virtual, and more automatized than ever. In this new world, marketers need to be “real-time relevant” – to gain awareness, to change perceptions and to spur action. They need to have their content in the right channel, format, time and context – from a consumer’s perspective. Only then do they at least have a chance of the consumer attending to the information and being influenced by it. In such an environment new skills and competences are required. The amount of available data has virtually exploded. To gain any perspective or apparent “control” in these environments, successful managers must embrace the complexity and learn to analyze, integrate and interpret all this data. A critical skill for marketers will be to identify the metrics that best reflect the desired outcomes of the organization and that sufficiently reflect specific indicators of critical processes. Furthermore, insights from other disciplines such as architecture, design, information-processing, biology or engineering will be important for creating customer experiences. The marketer of the future will need to be supremely curious and creative and to balance and integrate different worlds. It will all come down to delivering memorable and lasting experiences in a constantly and fast changing environment.

  3. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

  4. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warschkow, Rene; Ebinger, Sabrina M.; Brunner, Walter; Schmied, Bruno M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR) has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA) on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P < 0.001). To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P < 0.01) and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P < 0.01). After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P = 0.456). Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself. PMID:28197206

  5. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Warschkow

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P<0.001. To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P<0.01 and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P<0.01. After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P=0.456. Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself.

  6. The special severity of occupational accidents in the afternoon: "the lunch effect".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camino López, Miguel A; Fontaneda, Ignacio; González Alcántara, Oscar J; Ritzel, Dale O

    2011-05-01

    The severity of occupational accidents suffered by construction workers at different hours of the day is analyzed in this study. It may be seen that the interval of time between 13:00 and 17:00 has incomprehensibly high rates of severe and fatal accidents in comparison with any other. We associate this higher accident rate with what we have termed the "lunch effect". We studied 10,239,303 labor accidents in Spain over the period 1990-2002. The relationships between potential risk factors for occupational accidents around lunch in Spain, especially alcohol consumption are studied, using two methods: analysis of national archival data of 2,155,954 occupational accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector over the period 1990-2002 and a survey study. This study also seeks to contribute the opinions of the workers themselves regarding the causes that might explain this situation.

  7. 二代改进型核电厂严重事故下一回路卸压时机敏感性研究%Sensitivity Analysis on Time of Reactor Coolant System Depressurization under Severe Accident for Generation II+ Nuclear Power Plants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    种毅敏; 杨志义; 石雪垚; 张佳佳; 李春; 倪曼; 徐雨婷

    2015-01-01

    Reactor coolant system (RCS)depressurization is necessary measure for nuclear power plant to mitigate the severe accident,as well as a significant part of the severe accident management guidelines (SAMG).Difference may exist on the time of RCS depressurization in different NPPs.In this paper,based on MAAP4,the sensitivity analysis of time to implement RCS depressurization is performed.A typical integrated computer program,and different effects on mitigation of severe accident are compared.The simulation scenario is typical drill situation of generation II + NPPs,and conclusions can be reference for similar NPPs to implement severe accident management strategy.%一回路卸压是核电厂缓解严重事故的必要手段,也是严重事故管理导则(SAMG)的重要内容,国内核电厂严重事故管理中对一回路卸压的要求并不相同,本文基于典型二代改进型核电厂 SAMG 演练的场景,使用一体化计算程序 MAAP4,对一回路卸压时机进行敏感性分析,比较不同卸压时机对缓解严重事故效果的影响,所给出的结论可为相同类型核电厂制定严重事故管理策略时提供参考。

  8. Tropical tree rings reveal preferential survival of fast-growing juveniles and increased juvenile growth rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Danaë M A; Brienen, Roel J W; Soliz-Gamboa, Claudia C; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2010-02-01

    Long-term juvenile growth patterns of tropical trees were studied to test two hypotheses: fast-growing juvenile trees have a higher chance of reaching the canopy ('juvenile selection effect'); and tree growth has increased over time ('historical growth increase'). Tree-ring analysis was applied to test these hypotheses for five tree species from three moist forest sites in Bolivia, using samples from 459 individuals. Basal area increment was calculated from ring widths, for trees rings formed by small juveniles. Thus, extant adult trees in these species have had higher juvenile growth rates than extant juvenile trees. By contrast, rings formed by somewhat larger juveniles in four species showed the opposite pattern: a historical growth increase. For most size classes of > 10 cm diameter none of the patterns was found. Fast juvenile growth may be essential to enable tropical trees to reach the forest canopy, especially for small juvenile trees in the dark forest understorey. The historical growth increase requires cautious interpretation, but may be partially attributable to CO(2) fertilization.

  9. Survival of Xiphinema index in Vineyard Soil and Retention of Grapevine fanleaf virus Over Extended Time in the Absence of Host Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demangeat, Gérard; Voisin, Roger; Minot, Jean-Claude; Bosselut, Nathalie; Fuchs, Marc; Esmenjaud, Daniel

    2005-10-01

    ABSTRACT Grapevine fanleaf virus (GFLV) is transmitted specifically from grapevine to grapevine by the ectoparasitic root-feeding nematode Xiphinema index. Limited information is available on the survival of X. index in vineyard soil and on the retention of GFLV by X. index over extended periods of time. We addressed these two issues by quantifying the numbers of living X. index recovered from soil samples that were collected in three naturally GFLV-infected vineyards in France and subsequently stored at 7 or 20 degrees C in the absence of host plants. Our data indicated a two- to eightfold decrease in X. index numbers but the recovery of 8 to 10 living fourth-stage juveniles (J4) and adults per kilogram of soil after 4 years of storage regardless of temperature. In addition, GFLV was detected readily in all groups of 20 isolated X. index adults and J4 (except for J4 that were kept 4 years at 20 degrees C) by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction using total nematode RNAs and a primer set located in conserved regions at the 3' end of viral genomic RNA 2. Our findings on the long-term survival of viruliferous X. index under adverse conditions emphasize the need for new control strategies against GFLV.

  10. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mould, Richard F.; Lahanas, Michael; Asselain, Bernard; Brewster, David; Burgers, Sjaak A.; Damhuis, Ronald A. M.; DeRycke, Yann; Gennaro, Valerio; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila

    2004-09-01

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0.

  11. Quantifying the Influence of Social Characteristics on Accident and Injuries Risk: A Comparative Study Between Motorcyclists and Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Olesen, Morten N.; Hels, Tove

    2011-01-01

    as the control group. The available data for the regression consisted of accident and injury data for motorcyclists and car owners in the period of interest as well the social and demographic parameters: age, gender, income, educational level and family status. The odds ratio calculations showed that the risk....... In this analysis we establish relationships between social and demographic characteristics and the probability of being in an accident and being injured in an accident. Logistic regression was applied to both motorcyclists and car drivers with the purpose of calculating the odds ratio with the car drivers...... of being in an accident or in an injury accident decreased with age, educational level, and income. Furthermore, the risk of being in an accident was 1.72 to 1.96 times higher and the risk of being in an injury accident was 1.38 to 1.44 times higher for men compared to women. For motorcyclists compared...

  12. Joint analyses of longitudinal and time-to-event data in research on aging: Implications for predicting health and survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin G. Arbeev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Longitudinal data on aging, health and longevity provide a wealth of information to investigate different aspects of the processes of aging and development of diseases leading to death. Statistical methods aimed at analyses of time-to-event data jointly with longitudinal measurements became known as the joint models (JM. An important point to consider in analyses of such data in the context of studies on aging, health, and longevity is how to incorporate knowledge and theories about mechanisms and regularities of aging-related changes that accumulate in the research field into respective analytic approaches. In the absence of specific observations of longitudinal dynamics of relevant biomarkers manifesting such mechanisms and regularities, traditional approaches have a rather limited utility to estimate respective parameters that can be meaningfully interpreted from the biological point of view. A conceptual analytic framework for these purposes, the stochastic process model of aging (SPM, has been recently developed in the biodemographic literature. It incorporates available knowledge about mechanisms of aging-related changes which may be hidden in the individual longitudinal trajectories of physiological variables and this allows for analyzing their indirect impact on risks of diseases and death. Despite, essentially, serving similar purposes, JM and SPM developed in parallel in different disciplines with very limited cross-referencing. Although there were several publications separately reviewing these two approaches, there were no publications presenting both these approaches in some detail. Here we overview both approaches jointly and provide some new modifications of SPM. We discuss the use of stochastic processes to capture biological variation and heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns and important and promising (but still largely underused applications of JM and SPM to predictions of individual and population mortality and health

  13. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of

  14. Experimental study on the survival of the water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms--Pontederiaceae) under different oil doses and times of exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Aline; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez

    2014-12-01

    In the last decades, petroleum activities have increased in the Brazilian Amazon where there is oil exploration on the Urucu River, a tributary of the Amazon River, about 600 km from the city of Manaus. Particularly, transportation via the Amazon River to reach the oil refinery in Manaus may compromise the integrity of the large floodplains that flank hundreds of kilometers of this major river. In the Amazon floodplains, plant growth and nutrient cycling are related to the flood pulse. When oil spills occur, floating oil on the water surface is dispersed through wind and wave action in the littoral region, thus affecting the vegetation of terrestrial and aquatic environments. If pollutants enter the system, they are absorbed by plants and distributed in the food chain via plant consumption, mortality, and decomposition. The effect of oil on the growth and survival of vegetation in these environments is virtually unknown. The water hyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms] has a pantropical distribution but is native to the Amazon, often growing in high-density populations in the floodplains where it plays an important role as shelter and food source for aquatic and terrestrial biota. The species is well known for its high capacity to absorb and tolerate high levels of heavy metal ions. To study the survival and response of water hyacinth under six different oil doses, ranging from 0 to 150 ml l(-1), and five exposure times (1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 days), young individuals distributed in a completely randomized design experiment composed of vessels with a single individual each were followed over a 50-day period (30-day acclimatization, 20 days under oil treatments). Growth parameters, biomass, visual changes in the plants, and pH were recorded at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 days. Increasing the time of oil exposure caused a decrease in biomass, ratio of live/dead biomass and length of leaves, and an increase in the number of dead leaves. Dose of oil and time of exposure

  15. How to reduce the number of accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Among the safety objectives that the Director-General has established for CERN in 2012 is a reduction in the number of workplace accidents.   The best way to prevent workplace accidents is to learn from experience. This is why any accident, fire, instance of pollution, or even a near-miss, should be reported using the EDH form that can be found here. All accident reports are followed up. The departments investigate all accidents that result in sick leave, as well as all the more common categories of accidents at CERN, essentially falls (slipping, falling on stairs, etc.), regardless of whether or not they lead to sick leave. By studying the accident causes that come to light in this way, it is possible to take preventive action to avoid such accidents in the future. If you have any questions, the HSE Unit will be happy to answer them. Contact us at safety-general@cern.ch. HSE Unit

  16. Detection and analysis of black spots with even small accident figures. Contribution to the Seminar on Short-term and Area-wide Evaluation of Safety Measures, Amsterdam, April 19-21, 1982, p. 75-84.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    In order to detect accident black spots we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures known to us, the various road locations are treated as isolated spots. With small accident figu

  17. Role functioning before start of adjuvant treatment was an independent prognostic factor for survival and time to failure. A report from the Nordic adjuvant interferon trial for patients with high-risk melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandberg, Yvonne; Johansson, Hemming; Aamdal, Steinar

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the role of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at randomization as independent prognostic factors for survival and time to failure, and to explore associations between HRQoL and treatment effects.......To investigate the role of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at randomization as independent prognostic factors for survival and time to failure, and to explore associations between HRQoL and treatment effects....

  18. Trismus: An unusual presentation following road accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Trismus due to trauma usually follows road accidents leading to massive faciomaxillary injury. In the literature there is no report of a foreign body causing trismus following a road accident, this rare case is an exception. We present a case of isolated presentation of trismus following a road accident. This case report stresses on the thorough evaluation of patients presenting with trismus following a road accident.

  19. Preliminary dose assessment of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    From the major accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station, a plume of airborne radioactive fission products was initially carried northwesterly toward Poland, thence toward Scandinavia and into Central Europe. Reports of the levels of radioactivity in a variety of media and of external radiation levels were collected in the Department of Energy's Emergency Operations Center and compiled into a data bank. Portions of these and other data which were obtained directly from published and official reports were utilized to make a preliminary assessment of the extent and magnitude of the external dose to individuals downwind from Chernobyl. Radioactive /sup 131/I was the predominant fission product. The time of arrival of the plume and the maximum concentrations of /sup 131/I in air, vegetation and milk and the maximum reported depositions and external radiation levels have been tabulated country by country. A large amount of the total activity in the release was apparently carried to a significant elevation. The data suggest that in areas where rainfall occurred, deposition levels were from ten to one-hundred times those observed in nearby ''dry'' locations. Sufficient spectral data were obtained to establish average release fractions and to establish a reference spectra of the other nuclides in the release. Preliminary calculations indicated that the collective dose equivalent to the population in Scandinavia and Central Europe during the first year after the Chernobyl accident would be about 8 x 10/sup 6/ person-rem. From the Soviet report, it appears that a first year population dose of about 2 x 10/sup 7/ person-rem (2 x 10/sup 5/ Sv) will be received by the population who were downwind of Chernobyl within the U.S.S.R. during the accident and its subsequent releases over the following week. 32 refs., 14 figs., 20 tabs.

  20. The Physics of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Peter

    1975-01-01

    Shows how physics can be used to analyze and prevent traffic accidents by determining critical speeds on curves, the behavior of motor cycles and stability of articulated vehicles, and the visibility that is needed to make a minor road junction safe. (MLH)

  1. Work Accidents and Professional Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doru Hauptmann

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The major accident is defined as “any event occurred, like an emission of dangerous materials or agents, which emerges from uncontrolled evolutions along the exploitation of any objective that leads to the immediate or delayed occurrence of serious dangers with impact over human health or over the environment, inside or outside the objective in which are involved one or more than one dangerous materials”.The dangerous phenomenon is a potential source of harms. In the ambit of industrial risks of accidental origins, this expression more frequently refers to physical phenomena like conflagrations, explosions, toxic gases dispersion, etc.Any accident scenario relates itself to the potential effects at the level of environmental “targets”. In the case of major accidents, we can distinguish the following categories of “targets”: human (employees of the objective, working or resident people in the nearby of the emplacement; the installation or equipments that may stay at the origin of the accidents (dangerous equipments; certain all-important equipments to ensure the safety level of the installation (critical security equipments: control rooms, civil fire brigade headquarters, etc; goods and structures situated in the installation’ environment (ground water, rivers, soil, flora, fauna.

  2. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...

  3. Crime, accidents and social control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junger, Marianne; Terlouw, Gert-Jan; van der Heijden, Peter G.M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses to questions. (1) Is there a demonstrable relation between accidents and crime, does this relation hold for each type of crime and each means of transport, and does it subsist after controlling for age and gender? (2) Can social control theory explain involvements in both

  4. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2013-03-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  5. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2014-05-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data evaluation

  6. Intersection layout, traffic volumes and accidents.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poppe, F.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports on the accident research carried out as a part of a large project started in 1983. For this accident research an inventory was made of a large number of intersections.Recorded were layout features, accident data and estimates of traffic volumes. Attention will be given to the

  7. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in solicitations and contracts for construction that contain the clause at FAR 52.236-13, Accident Prevention....

  8. 48 CFR 1836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Accident prevention. 1836... 1836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 1852.223-70, Safety and Health, in lieu of FAR clause 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, and its Alternate I....

  9. 48 CFR 636.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 636... CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 636.513 Accident prevention. (a) In... contracting activities shall insert DOSAR 652.236-70, Accident Prevention, in lieu of FAR clause...

  10. Barriers to learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dechy, N.; Dien, Y.; Drupsteen, L.; Felicio, A.; Cunha, C.; Roed-Larsen, S.; Marsden, E.; Tulonen, T.; Stoop, J.; Strucic, M.; Vetere Arellano, A.L.; Vorm, J.K.J. van der; Benner, L.

    2015-01-01

    This document provides an overview of knowledge concerning barriers to learning from incidents and accidents. It focuses on learning from accident investigations, public inquiries and operational experience feedback, in industrial sectors that are exposed to major accident hazards. The document disc

  11. Analysing truck position data to study roundabout accident risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kamla, Jwan Jameel Shekh Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    In order to reduce accident risk, highway authorities prioritise maintenance budgets partly based upon previous accident history. However, as accident rates have continued to fall in most contexts, this approach has become problematic as accident ‘black spots’ have been treated and the number of accidents at any individual site has fallen. Another way of identifying sites of higher accident risk might be to identify near-miss accidents (where an accident nearly happened, but was avoided), whi...

  12. Impact of initial time to prostate-specific antigen nadir on survival in prostate cancer with bone metastasis initially treated with maximum androgen blockade therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamamoto Y

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study is to provide certain data on clinical outcomes and their predictors of traditional maximum androgen blockade (MAB in prostate cancer with bone metastasis. Methods: Subjects were patients with prostate adenocarcinoma with bone metastasis initiated to treat with MAB as a primary treatment without any local therapy at our hospital between January 2003 and December 2010. Time to prostate specific antigen (PSA progression, overall survival (OS time, and association of clinical factors and outcomes were retrospectively evaluated. Results: A total of 57 patients were evaluable. The median age was 70 years. The median primary PSA was 203 ng/ml. Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonists had been administered in 96.5% of the patients. Bicalutamide had been chosen in 89.4 % of the patients as the initial antiandrogen. The median time to PSA progression with MAB was 11.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4 to 13.0. The median OS was 47.3 months (95% CI, 30.7 to 81.0. Gleason score 9 or greater, decline of PSA level equal to or higher than 1.0 ng/ml with MAB, and time to PSA nadir equal to or shorter than six months after initiation of MAB were independent risk factors for time to PSA progression (P=0.010, P=0.005, and P=0.001; respectively. Time to PSA nadir longer than six months was the only independent predictor for longer OS (HR, 0.255 [95% CI, 0.109 to 0.597]; P=0.002. Conclusions: Initial time to PSA nadir should be emphasized for clinical outcome analyses in future studies on prostate cancer with bone metastasis.

  13. Timing of Whole Brain Radiotherapy on Survival of Patients with EGFR-mutated 
Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and Brain Metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guimei LIU

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective There is no high-level evidence for the time of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC and brain metastases. The aim of this study is to assess the appropriate timing of WBRT for patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC and brain metastases (BM. Methods There were 78 patients diagnosed with EGFR-mutated NSCLC and BM in Beijing Chest Hospital between August 2009 and May 2015. 48 untreated patients who received both WBRT and EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs therapy. Prognostic factors of intracranial progression-free survival (PFS and overall survival (OS were identified by Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results Intracranial objective response rate was 81.3% and disease control rate was 93.8%. Median intracranial PFS was 10 months. Median OS was 18 months. Multivariate analysis of intracranial PFS revealed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG performance status (PS 0-1 (HR=30.436, 95%CI: 4.721-196.211, P<0.001 and early WBRT (HR=3.663, 95%CI: 1.657-8.098, P=0.001 had a better intracranial PFS. Multivariate analysis of OS revealed that PS 0-1 (HR=57.607, 95%CI: 6.135-540.953, P<0.001, early WBRT (HR=2.757, 95%CI: 1.140-6.669, P=0.024, and stereotactic radiosurgery (HR=5.964, 95%CI: 1.895-18.767, P=0.002 were independent prognostic factors of OS. Conclusion Early WBRT combined with EGFR-TKIs can improve outcomes of patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC and BM, but it needs to be confirmed by large-sample-size and multicenter prospective clinical trials.

  14. Cerebrovascular accident (stroke) in captive, group-housed, female chimpanzees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jean, Sherrie M; Preuss, Todd M; Sharma, Prachi; Anderson, Daniel C; Provenzale, James M; Strobert, Elizabeth; Ross, Stephen R; Stroud, Fawn C

    2012-08-01

    Over a 5-y period, 3 chimpanzees at our institution experienced cerebrovascular accidents (strokes). In light of the increasing population of aged captive chimpanzees and lack of literature documenting the prevalence and effectiveness of various treatments for stroke in chimpanzees, we performed a retrospective review of the medical records and necropsy reports from our institution. A survey was sent to other facilities housing chimpanzees that participate in the Chimpanzee Species Survival Plan to inquire about their experience with diagnosing and treating stroke. This case report describes the presentation, clinical signs, and diagnosis of stroke in 3 recent cases and in historical cases at our institution. Predisposing factors, diagnosis, and treatment options of cerebral vascular accident in the captive chimpanzee population are discussed also.

  15. A study on the core analysis methodology for SMART CEA ejection accident-I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zee, Sung Kyun; Lee, Chung Chan; Kim, Kyo Yoon; Cho, Byung Oh

    1999-04-01

    A methodology to analyze the fuel enthalpy is developed based on MASTER that is a time dependent 3 dimensional core analysis code. Using the proposed methodology, SMART CEA ejection accident is analyzed. Moreover, radiation doses are estimated at the exclusion area boundary and low population zone to confirm the criteria for the accident. (Author). 31 refs., 13 tabs., 18 figs.

  16. Effects of the Beijing Subway Accident on Engineering Monitoring and Auditing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Ⅰ. Beijing Subway Line 10 Accident On March 28, 2007, six people were buried by a cave-in at Suzhoujie Station on Line 10 of the Beijing Subway. The fatalities were caused when the unit in charge of construction failed to implement a timely evacuation after a construction accident took place. (See Beijing Youth, April 1, 2007)

  17. Traffic Accidents Involving Cyclists Identifying Causal Factors Using Questionnaire Survey, Traffic Accident Data, and Real-World Observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikawa, Shoko; Hirose, Toshiya; Aomura, Shigeru; Matsui, Yasuhiro

    2016-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the mechanism of traffic accidents involving cyclists. The focus is on the characteristics of cyclist accidents and scenarios, because the number of traffic accidents involving cyclists in Tokyo is the highest in Japan. First, dangerous situations in traffic incidents were investigated by collecting data from 304 cyclists in one city in Tokyo using a questionnaire survey. The survey indicated that cyclists used their bicycles generally while commuting to work or school in the morning. Second, the study investigated the characteristics of 250 accident situations involving cyclists that happened in the city using real-world bicycle accident data. The results revealed that the traffic accidents occurred at intersections of local streets, where cyclists collided most often with vehicles during commute time in the morning. Third, cyclists' behavior was observed at a local street intersection in the morning in the city using video pictures. In one hour during the morning commute period, 250 bicycles passed through the intersection. The results indicated that one of the reasons for traffic accidents involving cyclists might be the combined effect of low visibility, caused by the presence of box-like building structures close to the intersections, and the cyclists' behavior in terms of their velocity and no confirming safety. It was observed that, on average, bicycle velocity was 3.1 m/s at the initial line of an intersection. The findings from this study could be useful in developing new technologies to improve cyclist safety, such as alert devices for cyclists and vehicle drivers, wireless communication systems between cyclists and vehicle drivers, or advanced vehicles with bicycle detection and collision mitigation systems.

  18. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  19. Development Status of Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding for LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyun-Gil; Kim, Il-Hyun; Jung, Yang-Il; Park, Dong-Jun; Park, Jung-Hwan; Yang, Jae-Ho; Koo, Yang-Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Hydrogen explosions and the release of radionuclides are caused by severe damage of current nuclear fuels, which are composed of fuel pellets and fuel cladding, during an accident. To reduce the damage to the public, the fuels have to enhance their integrity under an accident environment. Enhanced accident tolerance fuels (ATFs) can tolerate a loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period during design-basis and beyond design-basis events while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations as well as operational transients, in comparison with the current UO{sub 2}-Zr alloy system used in the LWR. Surface modified Zr cladding as a new concept was suggested to apply an enhanced ATF cladding. The aim of the partial ODS treatment is to increase the high-temperature strength to suppress the ballooning/rupture behavior of fuel cladding during an accident event. The target of the surface coating is to increase the corrosion resistance during normal operation and increase the oxidation resistance during an accident event. The partial ODS treatment of Zircaloy-4 cladding can be produced using a laser beam scanning method with Y2O3 powder, and the surface Cr-alloy and Cr/FeCrAl coating on Zircaloy-4 cladding can be obtained after the development of 3D laser coating and arc ion plating technologies.

  20. [Hanggliding accidents. Distribution of injuries and accident analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballmer, F T; Jakob, R P

    1989-12-01

    Paragliding--a relatively new sport to Switzerland--brought 23 patients with 48 injuries (38% lower limb and 29% spinal) within a period of 8 months to the Inselspital University hospital in Berne. The aim of the study in characterizing these injuries is to formulate some guidelines towards prevention. With over 90% of accidents occurring at either take off or landing, emphasis on better training for the beginner is proposed with strict guidelines for the more experienced pilot flying in unfavourable conditions.

  1. Preliminary Modeling of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts under Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamble, Kyle A.; Hales, Jason D.

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. Thus, the United States Department of Energy through its NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is funded for a three-year period. The purpose of the HIP is to perform research into two potential accident tolerant concepts and provide an in-depth report to the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) describing the behavior of the concepts, both of which are being considered for inclusion in a lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The initial focus of the HIP is on uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (INL, LANL, and ANL) a comprehensive mulitscale approach to modeling is being used including atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. In this paper, we present simulations of two proposed accident tolerant fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. The simulations investigate the fuel performance response of the proposed ATF systems under Loss of Coolant and Station Blackout conditions using the BISON code. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ DAKOTA software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). Early results indicate that each concept has significant advantages as well as areas of concern. Further work is required prior to formulating the proposition report for the Advanced Fuels Campaign.

  2. Bias and precision of methods for estimating the difference in restricted mean survival time from an individual patient data meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Béranger Lueza

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The difference in restricted mean survival time ( rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ , the area between two survival curves up to time horizon t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ , is often used in cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate the treatment effect in randomized controlled trials. A challenge in individual patient data (IPD meta-analyses is to account for the trial effect. We aimed at comparing different methods to estimate the rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ from an IPD meta-analysis. Methods We compared four methods: the area between Kaplan-Meier curves (experimental vs. control arm ignoring the trial effect (Naïve Kaplan-Meier; the area between Peto curves computed at quintiles of event times (Peto-quintile; the weighted average of the areas between either trial-specific Kaplan-Meier curves (Pooled Kaplan-Meier or trial-specific exponential curves (Pooled Exponential. In a simulation study, we varied the between-trial heterogeneity for the baseline hazard and for the treatment effect (possibly correlated, the overall treatment effect, the time horizon t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ , the number of trials and of patients, the use of fixed or DerSimonian-Laird random effects model, and the proportionality of hazards. We compared the methods in terms of bias, empirical and average standard errors. We used IPD from the Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharynx Carcinoma (MAC-NPC and its updated version MAC-NPC2 for illustration that included respectively 1,975 and 5,028 patients in 11 and 23 comparisons. Results The Naïve Kaplan-Meier method was unbiased, whereas the Pooled Exponential and, to a much lesser extent, the Pooled Kaplan-Meier methods showed a bias with non-proportional hazards. The Peto-quintile method underestimated the rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ , except with non-proportional hazards at t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ = 5 years. In the presence of treatment effect

  3. Inoculation of a Poultry Isolate Salmonella enteritidis on Egg Vitelline Membrane: Survival and Growth in Egg Components after Different Refrigeration Storage Times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. R. Howard

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available An in vitro study was designed to determine the extent of Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis survival and growth permissiveness in egg components isolated from shell eggs held at refrigeration temperature over an 8 week time period. Eggs were collected from a commercial laying facility at one-week intervals for eight weeks and stored at refrigeration temperature. After storage, eggs were dipped in ethanol, cracked aseptically and separated into yolk and albumen samples. S. enteritidis resistant to novobiocin and nalidixic acid were inoculated on to the surface of the yolk membrane at a concentration of approximately 106 CFU mLˉ1. Yolks were then covered with albumen and incubated for 24 hrs at 25°C. After incubation, eggs were separated into component parts. Samples were removed from yolk, albumen and yolk membrane and diluted 10-fold in sterile phosphate buffered saline. In albumen, S. enteritidis counts were increased in weeks 3 and 8 compared to week 1 (trial 2. The frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis in albumen occurred at week 7 versus weeks 0 and 1 in trial 1 and weeks 3 and 8 versus weeks 0 and 2 in trial 2. In the membrane fraction, the frequency of eggs exhibiting net growth of S. enteritidis occurred at weeks 5 and 8 versus week 0 in trial 2. In the yolk fractions, S. enteritidis counts recovered from week 6 eggs were significantly higher (PS. enteritidis positive eggs were greater in week 8 than week 5 in trial 1. This suggests that egg components recovered from aged eggs stored at refrigeration temperatures infrequently supported S. enteritidis net growth but generally did not inhibit survivability.

  4. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lise Hedegaard; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf

    2008-01-01

    training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.......The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel...

  5. Effects of Car Accidents on Three-Lane Traffic Flow

    OpenAIRE

    Jianzhong Chen; Zhiyuan Peng; Yuan Fang

    2014-01-01

    A three-lane traffic flow model is proposed to investigate the effect of car accidents on the traffic flow. The model is an extension of the full velocity difference (FVD) model by taking into account the lane changing. The extended lane-changing rules are presented to model the lane-changing behaviour. The cases that the car accidents occupy the exterior or interior lane, the medium lane, and two lanes are studied by numerical simulations. The time-space diagrams and the current diagrams are...

  6. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry.

  7. The dominance of accidents caused by banalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten

    . Nevertheless, the fact is that the simpler accidents normally caused by what might be regarded as banalities occur at a much higher frequencies and with many more fatalities and invalidities than any of what are usually regarded as the most dangerous kinds of accidents. In depth analysis of national statistics...... on accidents could reveal the kind of accidents we are talking about, where they happen, to whom, how, and what can be done about them. This would require a special registration system of the events leading up to the accident. The main results for the four most frequent types of accident will be described...... as an example of how much information such systems can offer in general for the work of accident prevention in more traditional and common enterprises....

  8. Simple estimate of fission rate during JCO criticality accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro [Faculty of Studies on Contemporary Society, Aichi Shukutoku Univ., Nagakute, Aichi (Japan)

    2000-03-01

    The fission rate during JCO criticality accident is estimated from fission-product (FP) radioactivities in a uranium solution sample taken from the preparation basin 20 days after the accident. The FP radioactivity data are taken from a report by JAERI released in the Accident Investigation Committee. The total fission number is found quite dependent on the FP radioactivities and estimated to be about 4x10{sup 16} per liter, or 2x10{sup 18} per 16 kgU (assuming uranium concentration 278.9 g/liter). On the contrary, the time dependence of the fission rate is rather insensitive to the FP radioactivities. Hence, it is difficult to determine the fission number in the initial burst from the radioactivity data. (author)

  9. Clinical symptoms of sleep apnea syndrome and automobile accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haraldsson, P O; Carenfelt, C; Diderichsen, Finn

    1990-01-01

    Patients with clinical features of sleep apnea syndrome (SAS) and self-reported sleep spells at the wheel do poorly in simulated monotonous driving. To evaluate whether drivers with defined symptoms of SAS (heavy snoring, sleep disturbances and daytime sleepiness) compensate in real traffic...... by careful driving or not, the rate of car accidents over a 5-year period was investigated. A questionnaire was addressed to 140 patients with and 142 controls without symptoms associated to SAS. Seventy-three of the patients had a complete triad of SAS-associated symptoms. Fifty-two percent...... of these patients reported habitual sleep spells at the wheel, as opposed to less than one percent by the controls. The ratio of drivers being involved in one or more combined-car accident was similar for patients and control drivers, but for single-car accidents the ratio was about 7 times higher for patients...

  10. Study of the Severity of Accidents in Tehran Using Statistical Modeling and Data Mining Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesamaldin Razi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstractBackgrounds and Aims: The Tehran province was subject to the second highest incidence of fatalities due to traffic accidents in 1390. Most studies in this field examine rural traffic accidents, but this study is based on the use of logit models and artificial neural networks to evaluate the factors that affect the severity of accidents within the city of Tehran.Materials and Methods: Among the various types of crashes, head-on collisions are specified as the most serious type, which is investigated in this study with the use of Tehran’s accident data. In the modeling process, the severity of the accident is the dependent variable and defined as a binary covariate, which are non-injury accidents and injury accidents. The independent variables are parameters such as the characteristics of the driver, time of the accident, traffic and environmental characteristics. In addition to the prediction accuracy comparison of the two models, the elasticity of the logit model is compared with a sensitivity analysis of the neural network.Results: The results show that the proposed model provides a good estimate of an accident's severity. The explanatory variables that have been determined to be significant in the final models are the driver’s gender, age and education, along with negligence of the traffic rules, inappropriate acceleration, deviation to the left, type of vehicle, pavement conditions, time of the crash and street width.Conclusion: An artificial neural network model can be useful as a statistical model in the analysis of factors that affect the severity of accidents. According to the results, human errors and illiteracy of drivers increase the severity of crashes, and therefore, educating drivers is the main strategy that will reduce accident severity in Iran. Special attention should be given to a driver’s age group, with particular care taken when they are very young.

  11. Analysis of Crew Fatigue in AIA Guantanamo Bay Aviation Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosekind, Mark R.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Lebacqz, J. Victor; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Flight operations can engender fatigue, which can affect flight crew performance, vigilance, and mood. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) requested the NASA Fatigue Countermeasures Program to analyze crew fatigue factors in an aviation accident that occurred at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. There are specific fatigue factors that can be considered in such investigations: cumulative sleep loss, continuous hours of wakefulness prior to the incident or accident, and the time of day at which the accident occurred. Data from the NTSB Human Performance Investigator's Factual Report, the Operations Group Chairman's Factual Report, and the Flight 808 Crew Statements were analyzed, using conservative estimates and averages to reconcile discrepancies among the sources. Analysis of these data determined the following: the entire crew displayed cumulative sleep loss, operated during an extended period of continuous wakefulness, and obtained sleep at times in opposition to the circadian disposition for sleep, and that the accident occurred in the afternoon window of physiological sleepiness. In addition to these findings, evidence that fatigue affected performance was suggested by the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript as well as in the captain's testimony. Examples from the CVR showed degraded decision-making skills, fixation, and slowed responses, all of which can be affected by fatigue; also, the captain testified to feeling "lethargic and indifferent" just prior to the accident. Therefore, the sleep/wake history data supports the hypothesis that fatigue was a factor that affected crewmembers' performance. Furthermore, the examples from the CVR and the captain's testimony support the hypothesis that the fatigue had an impact on specific actions involved in the occurrence of the accident.

  12. Psychosomatic health status of children exposed to the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korol, N. [Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, Kiev (Ukraine); Shibata, Yoshisada; Nakane, Yoshibumi

    1998-12-01

    Childhood victims were investigated focussing on the psychosomatic disorders. The subjects were some of the 3834 children who evacuated from the Chernobyl zone to Kiev (evacuees) and 200 children who have been living in Kiev since prior to the accident (comparison group). A psychological test administered to 504 evacuees aged 12-14 years at the time of the accident and the comparison group indicated that the frequencies of neutroticism, high level of anxiety and conflicts were significantly higher in the evacuees than in the comparison group (p<0.001). Another psychological test administered at puberty to the 504 evacuees and 200 other evacuees exposed to the accident at 4-6 years of age indicated that the psycho-emotional portrait of evacuated teenagers significantly changed with time since the accident. The effects of the Chernobyl accident on the health of the vegetative dystonia observed in 1987-1990 and 1990-1995 were higher in the evacuees than in the comparison group, although they were not statistically significant. Furthermore, a significant (p<0.001) association of the vegetative dystonia with peptic and cardiovascular disorders was observed. The present study indicates that the vegetative dystonia is still highly prevalent among childhood victims and deems to support that the vegetative dystonia may be a precursor of several diseases such as cardiovascular and peptic disorders. It should be emphasized that a health promotion program to produce a change in psychological and social problems after the Chernobyl accident is necessary to decrease the health impact among Ukrainian people. (author)

  13. Zero Accident Vision based strategies in organisations: Innovative perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwetsloot, G.I.J.M.; Kines, P.; Wybo, J.L.; Ruotsala, R.; Drupsteen, L.; Bezemer, R.A.

    2017-01-01

    The Zero Accident Vision (ZAV) is a promising approach developed in industry, but not so much addressed by the safety science research community. In a discussion paper in Safety Science (2013) a call was made for more research in this area. Three years later is a good time to take status of developm

  14. 49 CFR 840.3 - Notification of railroad accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... hospital; (2) The evacuation of a passenger train; (3) Damage to a tank car or container resulting in...) Accidents involving joint operations must be reported by the railroad that controls the track and directs... is required by paragraph (a) or (b) of this section occurs in a remote area, the time limits...

  15. Glioblastoma brain tumours: estimating the time from brain tumour initiation and resolution of a patient survival anomaly after similar treatment protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J D

    2012-01-01

    A practical mathematical model for glioblastomas (brain tumours), which incorporates the two key parameters of tumour growth, namely the cancer cell diffusion and the cell proliferation rate, has been shown to be clinically useful and predictive. Previous studies explain why multifocal recurrence is inevitable and show how various treatment scenarios have been incorporated in the model. In most tumours, it is not known when the cancer started. Based on patient in vivo parameters, obtained from two brain scans, it is shown how to estimate the time, after initial detection, when the tumour started. This is an input of potential importance in any future controlled clinical study of any connection between cell phone radiation and brain tumour incidence. It is also used to estimate more accurately survival times from detection. Finally, based on patient parameters, the solution of the model equation of the tumour growth helps to explain why certain patients live longer than others after similar treatment protocols specifically surgical resection (removal) and irradiation.

  16. The transcriptional response of neurotrophins and their tyrosine kinase receptors in lumbar sensorimotor circuits to spinal cord contusion is affected by injury severity and survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Tyler Hougland

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI results in changes to the anatomical, neurochemical, and physiological properties of cells in the central and peripheral nervous system. Neurotrophins, acting by binding to their cognate Trk receptors on target cell membranes, contribute to modulation of anatomical, neurochemical, and physiological properties of neurons in sensorimotor circuits in both the intact and injured spinal cord. Neurotrophin signaling is associated with many post-SCI changes including maladaptive plasticity leading to pain and autonomic dysreflexia, but also therapeutic approaches such as training-induced locomotor improvement. Here we characterize expression of mRNA for neurotrophins and Trk receptors in lumbar dorsal root ganglia (DRG and spinal cord after two different severities of mid-thoracic injury and at 6 and 12 weeks post-SCI. There was complex regulation that differed with tissue, injury severity, and survival time, including reversals of regulation between 6 and 12 weeks, and the data suggest that natural regulation of neurotrophins in the spinal cord may continue for months after birth. Our assessments determined that a coordination of gene expression emerged at the 12 week post-SCI time point and bioinformatic analyses address possible mechanisms. These data can inform studies meant to determine the role of the neurotrophin signaling system in post-SCI function and plasticity, and studies using this signaling system as a therapeutic approach.

  17. Practical approaches in accident analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, M.

    An accident analysis technique based on successive application of structural response, explosion dynamics, gas cloud formation, and plant operation failure mode models is proposed. The method takes into account the nonideal explosion characteristic of a deflagration in the unconfined cloud. The resulting pressure wave differs significantly from a shock wave and the response of structures like lamp posts and walls can differ correspondingly. This gives a more realistic insight into explosion courses than a simple TNT-equivalent approach.

  18. The consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chioșilă

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available These days marks 30 years since the Chernobyl nuclear accident, followed by massive radioactive contamination of the environment and human in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, and resulted in many deaths among people who intervened to decrease the effects of the nuclear disaster. The 26 April 1986 nuclear accident contaminated all European countries, but at a much lower level, without highlighted consequences on human health. In special laboratories, the main radionuclides (I-131, Cs-137, Cs-134 and Sr-90 were also analyzed in Romania from environmental samples, food, even human subjects. These radionuclides caused the population to receive a low dose of about 1 mSv in 1986 that is half of the dose of the natural background radiation (2.4 mSv per year. As in all European countries (excluding Ukraine, Belarus and Russia this dose of about 1 mSv fell rapidly by 1990, reaching levels close to ones before the accident at the nuclear tests.

  19. [Multicenter paragliding accident study 1990].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenschlager, S; Karli, U; Matter, P

    1992-01-01

    During the period from 1.1.90 until 31.12.90, 86 injuries associated with paragliding were analyzed in a prospective study in 12 different Swiss hospitals with reference to causes, patterns, and frequencies. The injuries showed a mean score of over 2 and were classified as severe. Most frequent spine injuries (36%) and lesions of the lower extremity (35%) with a high risk of the ankles were diagnosed. One accident was fatal. 60% of the accidents happened during landing, 26% during launching and 14% during flight. Half of the pilots were affected during their primary training course. Most accidents were caused by inflight error of judgement--especially incorrect estimation of wind conditions--and further the choice of unfavourable landing sites. In contrast to previous injury-reports, only one equipment failure could be noted, but often the equipment was not corresponding with the experience and the weight of the pilot. To reduce the frequency of paragliding-injuries an accurate choice of equipment and an increased attention to environmental factors is mandatory. Furthermore an education-program regarding the attitude and intelligence of the pilot should be included in training courses.

  20. Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galstyan I.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

  1. Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  2. Thermal Hydraulic design parameters study for severe accidents using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Chang Hyun; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Chang, Keun Sun [Sunmoon University, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    To provide the information on severe accident progression is very important for advanced or new type of nuclear power plant (NPP) design. A parametric study, therefore, was performed to investigate the effect of thermal hydraulic design parameters on severe accident progression of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Nine parameters, which are considered important in NPP design or severe accident progression, were selected among the various thermal hydraulic design parameters. The backpropagation neural network (BPN) was used to determine parameters, which might more strongly affect the severe accident progression, among nine parameters. For training, different input patterns were generated by the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and then different target patterns that contain core uncovery time and vessel failure time were obtained for Young Gwang Nuclear (YGN) Units 3 and 4 using modular accident analysis program (MAAP) 3.0B code. Three different severe accident scenarios, such as two loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO), were considered in this analysis. Results indicated that design parameters related to refueling water storage tank (RWST), accumulator and steam generator (S/G) have more dominant effects on the progression of severe accidents investigated, compared to the other six parameters. 9 refs., 5 tabs. (Author)

  3. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Applied survival analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  5. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  6. A comparison of motorcycle and bicycle accidents in oral and maxillofacial trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Júnior, Sergio Monteiro Lima; Santos, Saulo Ellery; Kluppel, Leandro Eduardo; Asprino, Luciana; Moreira, Roger William Fernandes; de Moraes, Márcio

    2012-03-01

    The aim of this study was to present a large series of motorcycle- and bicycle-related traumas to the face in an attempt to identify the injury pattern in motorcyclists and bicyclists. Data were collected from patients during a 10-year period (1999 through 2009), which included demographic data, diagnosis of facial fractures, use of protective devices, dentoalveolar trauma, and facial soft tissue injuries. There were 556 patients with bicycle accidents and 367 with motorcycle accidents. Men were involved in 79% (436) of bicycles accidents and 82% (299) of motorcycle accidents. Young male patients were more frequent in bicycle and motorcycle accidents. Two hundred fifty bicyclists showed 311 maxillofacial fractures. Two hundred twenty-one motorcyclists showed 338 maxillofacial fractures. Motorcycle accidents caused multiple fractures in more patients. Seventy-six percent of motorcyclists were using helmets at the time of the accidents, whereas 6% of cyclists were using helmets. Motorcyclists showed a larger number of lacerations, whereas bicyclists showed a larger number of abrasions. Avulsion was the most common dentoalveolar injury for these accident types. Hospital stays were 3.8 days for motorcyclists and 1.3 days for bicyclists. The high-impact collisions typically observed in motorcycle accidents is directly related to larger percentages of soft tissue lacerations and facial fractures. The low-impact trauma that is observed in bicycle accidents is more commonly associated with soft tissue abrasion, hematoma, and dentoalveolar fractures. This stresses the need for compulsory legislation for helmet use with face-guards for cyclists and motorcyclists. It is important to take measures to alert the public regarding the severity of injuries likely to occur in bicycle- and motorcycle-related accidents and ways to prevent them. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Effect of a new motorway on social-spatial patterning of road traffic accidents: A retrospective longitudinal natural experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Jonathan R; Mitchell, Richard; Ogilvie, David

    2017-01-01

    The World Health Organisation reports that road traffic accidents (accidents) could become the seventh leading cause of death globally by 2030. Accidents often occur in spatial clusters and, generally, there are more accidents in less advantaged areas. Infrastructure changes, such as new roads, can affect the locations and magnitude of accident clusters but evidence of impact is lacking. A new 5-mile motorway extension was opened in 2011 in Glasgow, Scotland. Previous research found no impact on the number of accidents but did not consider their spatial location or socio-economic setting. We evaluated impacts on these, both locally and city-wide. We used STATS19 data covering the period 2008 to 2014 and describing the location and details of all reported accidents involving a personal injury. Poisson-based continuous scan statistics were used to detect spatial clusters of accidents and any change in these over time. Change in the socio-economic distribution of accident cluster locations during the study period was also assessed. In each year accidents were strongly clustered, with statistically significant clusters more likely to occur in socio-economically deprived areas. There was no significant shift in the magnitude or location of accident clusters during motorway construction or following opening, either locally or city-wide. There was also no impact on the socio-economic patterning of accident cluster locations. Although urban infrastructure changes occur constantly, all around the world, this is the first study to evaluate the impact of such changes on road accident clusters. Despite expectations to the contrary from both proponents and opponents of the M74 extension, we found no beneficial or adverse change in the socio-spatial distribution of accidents associated with its construction, opening or operation. Our approach and findings can help inform urban planning internationally.

  8. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

    1997-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  9. Modification of MELCOR for severe accident analysis of candidate accident tolerant cladding materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merrill, Brad J., E-mail: brad.merrill@inl.gov; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M., E-mail: shannon.bragg-sitton@inl.gov; Humrickhouse, Paul W., E-mail: paul.humrickhouse@inl.gov

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • Accident tolerant fuels (ATF) systems are currently under development for LWRs. • Many performance analysis tools are specifically developed for UO{sub 2}–Zr alloy fuel. • Modifications were made to the MELCOR code for candidate ATF cladding. • Preliminary analysis results for SiC and FeCrAl cladding concepts are presented. - Abstract: A number of materials are currently under development as candidate accident tolerant fuel and cladding for application in the current fleet of commercial light water reactors (LWRs). The safe, reliable and economic operation of the nation’s nuclear power reactor fleet has always been a top priority for the nuclear industry. Continual improvement of technology, including advanced materials and nuclear fuels, remains central to the industry’s success. Enhancing the accident tolerance of light water reactors became a topic of serious discussion following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting tsunami, and subsequent damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant complex. The overall goal for the development of accident tolerant fuel (ATF) systems for LWRs is to identify alternative fuel system technologies to further enhance the safety, competitiveness, and economics of commercial nuclear power. Designed for use in the current fleet of commercial LWRs, or in reactor concepts with design certifications (GEN-III+), to achieve their goal enhanced ATF must endure loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer period of time than the current fuel system, while maintaining or improving performance during normal operation. Many available nuclear fuel performance analysis tools are specifically developed for the current UO{sub 2}–Zirconium alloy fuel system. The MELCOR severe-accident analysis code, under development at the Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico (SNL-NM) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is one of these tools. This paper describes modifications

  10. Review of accident analyses of RB experimental reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Milan P.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The RB reactor is a uranium fuel heavy water moderated critical assembly that has been put and kept in operation by the VTNCA Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, since April 1958. The first complete Safety Analysis Report of the RB reactor was prepared in 1961/62 yet, the first