WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Evaluation of severe accident environmental conditions taking accident management strategy into account for equipment survivability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Chul; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Soong Pyung

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology utilizing accident management strategy in order to determine accident environmental conditions in equipment survivability assessments. In case that there is well-established accident management strategy for specific nuclear power plant, an application of this tool can provide a technical rationale on equipment survivability assessment so that plant-specific and time-dependent accident environmental conditions could be practically and realistically defined in accordance with the equipment and instrumentation required for accident management strategy or action appropriately taken. For this work, three different tools are introduced; Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) outcomes, major accident management strategy actions, and Accident Environmental Stages (AESs). In order to quantitatively investigate an applicability of accident management strategy to equipment survivability, the accident simulation for a most likely scenario in Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants (KSNPs) is performed with MAAP4 code. The Accident Management Guidance (AMG) actions such as the Reactor Control System (RCS) depressurization, water injection into the RCS, the containment pressure and temperature control, and hydrogen concentration control in containment are applied. The effects of these AMG actions on the accident environmental conditions are investigated by comparing with those from previous normal accident simulation, especially focused on equipment survivability assessment. As a result, the AMG-involved case shows the higher accident consequences along the accident environmental stages

  2. Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

    1990-10-01

    A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

  3. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  4. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak V; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  5. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak V.; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J.

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems. PMID:27997566

  6. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinayak V Dixit

    Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  7. Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the

  8. Survival, neurological recovery and morbidity after spinal cord injuries following road accidents in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchvaloon, E; Front, L; Gelernter, I; Ronen, J; Bluvshtein, V; Catz, A

    2008-02-01

    A retrospective cohort study. Assess outcomes in patients with spinal cord injuries (SCI) following road accidents, and factors that affect them. Loewenstein Rehabilitation Hospital, Raanana, Israel. A total of 143 patients admitted for rehabilitation between 1962 and 2004. Survival rates were estimated using the product limit (Kaplan-Meyer) method and their association with risk factors was analyzed with the Cox model. Neurological recovery was determined by comparing the Frankel grade at admission to rehabilitation and at discharge. The relation between recovery and various factors was tested with logistic regression. The risk of SCI in road accidents is higher among car drivers and motorcycle or bicycle riders. Median survival was 43 years. Survival was negatively associated with age at injury (Ppressure sores (P=0.0065). Recovery of at least one Frankel grade occurred in 29.1% of patients. Useful recovery (upgrade to Frankel grade D or E) occurred in 23.1% of all patients. Neurological recovery was negatively associated with the severity of neurological deficit (Ppressure sores and those of the urinary and respiratory systems. In SCI following road accidents, survival rates were higher and recovery rates lower than in mixed types of trauma. This may be related to better compensation followed by better nursing for road accident victims in Israel, which may prevent life-shortening complications, and to more severe injuries caused by road accidents.

  9. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  10. An assessment the severe accident equipment survivability for the Korean Next Generation Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, B. C.; Moon, Y. T.; Park, J. W.; Kho, H. J.; Lee, S. W.

    1999-01-01

    One of the prominent design approaches to cope with the severe accident challenges in the Korean Next Generation Reactor is an assessment of equipment survivability in the severe accident environment at early design stage. In compliance with 10CFR50.34(f) and SECY-93-087, this work addresses that a reasonable level of assurance be provided to demonstrate that sufficient instrumentation and equipment will survive the consequences of a severe accident and will be available so that the operator may recover from and trend severe core damage sequences, including those scenarios which result in 100 percent oxidation of the active fuel cladding. An analytical and systematic approach was used to identify the equipment and instrumentation of safety-function and define severe accident environments including temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation before and after the reactor vessel breach. As a result, it was concluded that with minor exceptions, existing design basis equipment qualification methods are sufficient to provide a reasonable level of assurance that this equipment will function during a severe accident. Furthermore, supplemental severe accident equipment and instrument procurement requirements were identified. (author)

  11. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  12. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  13. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T.; Lee, So I.

    2014-01-01

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident

  14. Study of evacuation times based on recent accident history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    A key parameter in the calculation of accident dose-risks by the RADTRAN 4 code is the time assigned for evacuation of the affected area surrounding the accident. Currently, in the interest of assured conservatism, this time is set at 24 hrs. Casual anecdotal evidence has indicated that this value is overly conservative and results in assignment of overly conservative estimates of accident dose-risk. Therefore, a survey of recent truck accidents involving various hazardous materials which required evacuation of surrounding populations reported in various news media was undertaken. Accounts of pertinent scenarios were gleaned from databases citing newspapers and other periodicals, and the local authorities involved in each were contacted to get details of the evacuation including time required. This paper presents the data obtained in the study and the resultant mean evacuation time plus limits and factors influencing specific results together with conclusions regarding the appropriate value to be used in the RADTRAN 4 code

  15. School accidents to children: time to act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maitra, A

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile of injuries sustained by children in school accidents and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN: A five month prospective study of children attending an urban accident and emergency (A&E) department. SUBJECTS: 500 children who sustained injuries in school due to a variety of activities. RESULTS: 10 and 12 year old pupils suffered most injuries in school grounds/playgrounds, on concrete, or on grass/soil surfaces due to random activities resulting in striking or being struck by objects/persons, tripping or slipping, and sports (mainly football); 65.5% of these activities were not supervised and 67.4% occurred "out of lessons"; 22% sustained fractures or dislocations, 28.2% needed follow up treatment, and 1.4% were admitted. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries to children in school are a cause for concern. Effective preventive measures should concentrate on (a) specific target areas using schemes based on individual school, and (b) establishing a credible system of monitoring of their effectiveness. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:9248914

  16. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  17. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  18. Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanore, J.M.; Villeroux, C.; Bouscatie, F.; Maigret, N.

    1981-09-01

    There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

  19. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuuli Lahti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents.

  20. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  1. Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

  2. Computation of reactor control rod drop time under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dou Yikang; Yao Weida; Yang Renan; Jiang Nanyan

    1998-01-01

    The computational method of reactor control rod drop time under accident conditions lies mainly in establishing forced vibration equations for the components under action of outside forces on control rod driven line and motion equation for the control rod moving in vertical direction. The above two kinds of equations are connected by considering the impact effects between control rod and its outside components. Finite difference method is adopted to make discretization of the vibration equations and Wilson-θ method is applied to deal with the time history problem. The non-linearity caused by impact is iteratively treated with modified Newton method. Some experimental results are used to validate the validity and reliability of the computational method. Theoretical and experimental testing problems show that the computer program based on the computational method is applicable and reliable. The program can act as an effective tool of design by analysis and safety analysis for the relevant components

  3. Time to death analysis of road traffic accidents in relation to delta V, drunk driving, and restraint systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Yonghan; Sohn, So Young

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to identify variables related to the expected time to death due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). Such research is expected to be useful in improving safety laws and regulations and developing new safety systems. The resulting information is crucial not only for reducing accident fatalities but for assessing related insurance policies. In this article, we analyze factors that are potentially associated with variation in the expected survival time after a road traffic accident using Weibull regression. In particular, we consider the association with alcohol involvement, delta V, and restraint systems. Our empirical results, obtained based on the NASS-CDS, indicate that the expected survival time for non-alcohol-impaired drivers is 3.23 times longer at a delta V of 50 km/h than that for alcohol-impaired drivers under the same conditions. In addition, it was observed that, even when occupants were alcohol-impaired, if they were protected by both air bags and seat belts, their expected survival time after an RTA increased 2.59-fold compared to alcohol-impaired drivers who used only seat belts. Our findings may be useful in improving road traffic safety and insurance policies by offering insights into the factors that reduce fatalities.

  4. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  5. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  6. Personal, place, and time characteristics of offshore accidents in five oil companies operating in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahardjo; Sudjoko; Sebayang

    1991-01-01

    This study is to determine personal, place and time characteristics of offshore accidents during the year of 1987, 1988 and 1989 of five oil companies operating in Indonesia. Age, length of service, employment status, job characteristics, work cycles, work schedules, marital status, citizenship, disability, anatomy and nature of accident

  7. Lesão encefálica hipóxica em vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito: prevalência, distribuição e associação com tempo de sobrevida e outras lesões cranioencefálicas e extracranianas Hypoxic brain damage in victims of fatal road traffic accident: prevalence, distribution and association with survival time and other head and extracranial injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastião Silva Gusmão

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e a distribuição da lesão encefálica hipóxica e sua associação com tempo de sobrevida e outras lesões cranioencefálicas e extracranianas. MÉTODO: Realizou-se o estudo anátomo-patológico macro e microscópico de 120 vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito, independente do tempo de sobrevida, necropsiadas no Instituto Médico Legal de Minas Gerais, em Belo Horizonte, no período entre 1989 e 1993. O estudo foi prospectivo e os indivíduos foram selecionados aleatoriamente. RESULTADOS: Das 120 vítimas, 51 eram motoristas ou passageiros de veículos motorizados e 69 eram pedestres. Oitenta e três pacientes (69,2% faleceram no local do acidente ou com menos de 24 horas de sobrevida e 37 (30,8% sobreviveram um ou mais dias. Evidência histológica de lesão encefálica hipóxica foi detectada em 23 (19,2% dos 120 encéfalos. A prevalência foi de 4,8% entre os pacientes que sobreviveram menos de 24 horas e 51,4% para aqueles com um ou mais dias de sobrevida. A lesão encefálica hipóxica foi encontrada principalmente no hipocampo e subiculum (65,2%, tálamo (34,8%, neocórtex cerebral (26,1% e núcleos da base (21,7%. Não se observou associação significativa entre lesão encefálica hipóxica e hipertensão intracraniana, trauma tóraco-abdominal e pneumonia e/ou meningite nos pacientes com sobrevida igual ou superior a um dia. CONCLUSÃO: A lesão encefálica hipóxica ocorre em alta frequência em vítimas fatais de acidente de trânsito com um ou mais dias de sobrevida, não estando significativamente associada a hipertensão intracraniana, trauma tóraco-abdominal e pneumonia e/ou meningite.OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and distribution of hypoxic brain damage and its association with survival time and other head and extracranial injuries. METHOD: A macro and microscopical study of brain lesions in 120 victims of fatal road traffic accident, independent of the survival time, was made

  8. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  9. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  10. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITY TO AVOID A RUNNING-DOW ACCIDENT TIMELY BRAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarayev, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Such circumstances under which the drive can stop the vehicle by applying timely braking before reaching the pedestrian crossing or decrease the speed to the safe limit to avoid a running-down accident is considered.

  11. Effect of liquid nitrogen storage time on the survival and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Investigations were undertaken on the effect of liquid nitrogen (LN) storage time on survival and regeneration of somatic embryos of cocoa (Theobroma cacao l.). Somatic embryos from different cocoa genotypes (AMAZ 3-2, AMAZ 10-1, AMAZ 12, SIAL 93, and IMC 14) at 15.45% moisture content were cryopreserved in LN ...

  12. Effect of fibrinolysis inhibitors on survival time of irradiated rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smok, W.

    1988-01-01

    The possibilities of alleviation of the gastrointestinal syndrome of acute radiation sickness by modification of haemorrhagic diathesis using EACA and traskolan were studied. A significant prolongation of the mean survival time was obtained in the irradiated rats treated with EACA. 7 tabs., 10 refs. (author)

  13. Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varughese; Allen

    2001-01-01

    Objective: This study examines specific hypotheses that both sleep loss and behavioral changes occurring with the time shifts for Daylight Savings Time (DST) significantly effect the number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States of America.Background: It has been reported that there is a significant increase in the number of automobile accidents in the spring shift to DST due to the loss of 1 h of sleep. But the extra hour gained at night with the shift from DST in the fall has been variably reported to be associated with increases and decreases in the number of automobile accidents which may reflect either behavioral anticipation with an extended late night prior to the change or the benefit of extra sleep after the change.Methods: Data from 21 years of United States' fatal automobile accidents were gathered. The mean number of accidents on the days at the time of the shifts (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) was compared to the average of the corresponding mean number of accidents on the matching day of the weeks preceding and following the shift. This was repeated for each DST shift. The number of accidents for a particular shift was also correlated with the year of the accidents.Results: There was a significant increase in accidents for the Monday immediately following the spring shift to DST (t=1.92, P=0.034). There was also a significant increase in number of accidents on the Sunday of the fall shift from DST (P<0.002). No significant changes were observed for the other days. A significant negative correlation with the year was found between the number of accidents on the Saturdays and Sundays but not Mondays.Conclusions: The sleep deprivation on the Monday following shift to DST in the spring results in a small increase in fatal accidents. The behavioral adaptation anticipating the longer day on Sunday of the shift from DST in the fall leads to an increased number of accidents suggesting an increase in late night (early Sunday morning) driving when

  14. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lönnqvist Jouko

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment.

  15. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahti, Tuuli A; Haukka, Jari; Lönnqvist, Jouko; Partonen, Timo

    2008-01-01

    Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment. PMID:18302734

  16. Fuselage Burnthrough Protection for Increased Postcrash Occupant Survivability: Safety Benefit Analysis Based on Past Accidents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cherry, Ray

    1999-01-01

    .... The methodology gives a reasonable assessment of the tolerance on the predicted levels. Fire hardening of fuselages will provide benefits in terms of enhanced occupant survival and may be found to be cost beneficial if low-cost solutions can be found...

  17. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached by focusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kind of substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time. The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “ever-living present.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductory matter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is a treatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations in the n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have done away with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives as eternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of the nature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notion of holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory. I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence of actual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in his reflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentially more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in the last section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin, as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’s inspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretation leads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of its reconciliation

  18. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached byfocusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kindof substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time.The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “everlivingpresent.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complexholistic”theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductorymatter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternalrecurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is atreatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations inthe n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have doneaway with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives aseternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of thenature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notionof holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory.I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence ofactual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in hisreflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentiallymore integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in thelast section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin,as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’sinspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretationleads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of itsreconciliation with the once-only view

  19. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  20. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stehney, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226 Ra + 228 Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment

  1. A space-time analysis of PWR rod ejection accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, K.; Kanezashi, M.; Kato, M.; Nishimura, Y.; Satoh, T.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient and reliable method to perform V-Q loss minimization control. A method proposed here is suitable for a decentralized control system (a hierarchy control system), taking full advantage of the dispatching organization and system structures. This is also a practical method, taking computational requirements and transmitted information into consideration. A feasible type, decomposition technique of quadratic programming underlies our method. Numerical results show that execution time, memory requirements, and convergence property are satisfactory

  2. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  3. Intervention of the army health service in the case of radiological accident in peace time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curet, P.M.; Croq, M.

    2001-01-01

    The Army Health Service has conceived an organisation and has at its disposal the means necessary to answer the consequences of an accident having a radiological type in peace time in the military field. Its intervention area can be extended to the civil medium at the public authorities demand to give assistance. (N.C.)

  4. Time analysis of fatal traffic accidents in Fars Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heydari Seyed Taghi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the time factor in road traffic accidents (RTAs in Fars Province of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in Fars Province, Iran from November 22, 2009 to November 21, 2011. Victims’ information consisted of age, sex, death toll involving dri-vers or passengers of cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, and site of injury etc. Accidents were analyzed in relation to hour of the day, season of the year, lighting condition in-cluding sunrise, sunset, daytime and nighttime. Results: A total of 3 642 deaths (78.3% were males, and the ratio of males to females was about 3.6:1 were studied regarding their autopsy records. There was a steady in-crease in fatal accidents occurring at midnight to 15:59. The risk of being involved in a fatal traffic accident was higher for those injured between 4:00 to 7:59 than at other times (OR=2.13, 95% CI 1.85-2.44. The greatest number of fatal RTAs took place in summer. Mortalities due to RTA during spring and summer were more pronounced at 20:00 to 23:59 and midnight to 3:59, whereas mortalities in fall and winter were more pronounced from 12:00 to 15:59. Conclusion: The high mortality rate of RTA is a major public health problem in Fars Province. Our results indicate that the time is an important factor which contributes to road traffic deaths. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Epidemiology; Mortality; Iran

  5. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

  6. Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

    2007-05-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

  7. Real time analysis for atmospheric dispersions for Fukushima nuclear accident: Mobile phone based cloud computing assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Tae Ho

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Possible nuclear accident is simulated for the atmospheric contaminations. • The simulations results give the relative importance of the fallouts. • The cloud computing of IT is performed successfully. • One can prepare for the possible damages of such a NPP accident. • Some other variables can be considered in the modeling. - Abstract: The radioactive material dispersion is investigated by the system dynamics (SD) method. The non-linear complex algorithm could give the information about the hazardous material behavior in the case of nuclear accident. The prevailing westerlies region is modeled for the dynamical consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. The event sequence shows the scenario from earthquake to dispersion of the radionuclides. Then, the dispersion reaches two cities in Korea. The importance of the radioactive dispersion is related to the fast and reliable data processing, which could be accomplished by cloud computing concept. The values of multiplications for the wind, plume concentrations, and cloud computing factor are obtained. The highest value is 94.13 in the 206th day for Seoul. In Pusan, the highest value is 15.48 in the 219th day. The source is obtained as dispersion of radionuclide multiplied by 100. The real time safety assessment is accomplished by mobile phone

  8. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  9. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  10. Analysis of space-time core dynamics on reactor accident at Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takano, Makoto; Shindo, Ryuichi; Yamashita, Kiyonobu; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    1987-05-01

    Regarding reactor accident at Chernobyl in USSR, core dynamics has been analyzed by COMIC code which solves space-time dependent diffusion equation in three-dimension taking spatial thermohydraulic effect into account. The code was originally developed for high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR), however, has been modified to include light water as coolant, instead of helium, for analysis of the accident. In the analysis, emphasis is placed on spatial effects on core dynamics. The analyses are performed for the cases of modeling the core fully and partially where 6 fuel channels surround one control rod channel. The result shows that the speed of applying void reactivity averaged over the core depends on the power and coolant flow distributions. Therefore, these distributions have potential to influence on the value and the time of peak power estimated by calculation. (author)

  11. Cerebrovascular accidents complicating transcatheter aortic valve implantation: frequency, timing and impact on outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stortecky, Stefan; Windecker, Stephan; Pilgrim, Thomas; Heg, Dik; Buellesfeld, Lutz; Khattab, Ahmed A; Huber, Christoph; Gloekler, Steffen; Nietlispach, Fabian; Mattle, Heinrich; Jüni, Peter; Wenaweser, Peter

    2012-05-15

    Cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) are considered among the most serious adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The objective of the present study was to evaluate the frequency and timing of CVA after TAVI and to investigate the impact on clinical outcomes within 30 days of the procedure. Between August 2007 and October 2011, 389 high-risk elderly patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis underwent TAVI via transfemoral, transapical or subclavian access. A total of 14 patients (3.6%) experienced at least one CVA within 30 days of follow-up and most events (74%) occurred within the first day of the procedure. Patients with CVA had an increased risk of all-cause (42.3% vs. 5.1%, ORadjusted 11.7, 95% CI 3.4-40.3, pCerebrovascular accidents among patients undergoing TAVI occur predominantly during the periprocedural period, are associated with multiple implantation attempts of the bioprosthesis and significantly impair prognosis.

  12. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  13. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  14. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  15. Evaluation of median survival patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia exposed ionizing radiation by the Chornobyl accident, depending on the aminoacid composition of stromal fibroblasts bone marrow and indicators of myelogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebeshko, V.G.; Bruslova, K.M.; Tsvjetkova, N.M.; Pushkar'ova, T.Yi.; Panchenko, L.M.; Yatsemirs'kij, S.N.; Volodyina, T.T.; Lyashenko, L.O.

    2015-01-01

    The aminoacid composition in the stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and indexes of hemogram in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemias, which exposed to radiation from the Chornobyl accident, for evaluation of the median survival was investigated. In the study 54 patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, residents of Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine were involved. Effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts colony forming units of bone marrow and aminoacid composition of fibroblasts were studied. Bone marrow examination was conducted on day 33 and after stop of chemotherapy, the median survival of patients and exposure dose were evaluated. In children with acute leukemias effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow was 2-2.3 times lower than normative. Correlation (r_s = +0.83) between the number of erythroid progenitor cells in the bone marrow and proline content in stromal fibroblasts established . The correlation between patients median survival and number of granulocytes in myelogram (r_s = + 0.82) was proven. Mean exposure doses in patients was (5.86 ±1.11) mSv and it did not correlate with myelogram results, effectiveness of stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and median survival. The median survival of patients with acute leukemias depends on the content of amino acids in stromal fibroblasts of bone marrow and recover of hematopoiesis after chemotherapy

  16. Rubber dam may increase the survival time of dental restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keys, William; Carson, Susan J

    2017-03-01

    Data sourcesCochrane Oral Health's Trials Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, LILACS, SciELO, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database, VIP, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, OpenGrey and Sciencepaper Online databases. Handsearches in a number of journals.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials, including split-mouth studies assessing the effects of rubber dam isolation for restorative treatments in dental patients.Data extraction and synthesisTwo review authors independently screened the results of the electronic searches, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies.ResultsFour studies involving a total of 1,270 patients were included. The studies were at high risk of bias. One trial was excluded from the analysis due to inconsistencies in the presented data. Restorations had a significantly higher survival rate in the rubber dam isolation group compared to the cotton roll isolation group at six months in participants receiving composite restorative treatment of non-carious cervical lesions (risk ratio (RR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.37, very low-quality evidence). The rubber dam group had a lower risk of failure at two years in children undergoing proximal atraumatic restorative treatment in primary molars (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97, very low-quality evidence). One trial reported limited data showing that rubber dam usage during fissure sealing might shorten the treatment time. None of the included studies mentioned adverse effects or reported the direct cost of the treatment, or the level of patient acceptance/satisfaction. There was also no evidence evaluating the effects of rubber dam usage on the quality of the restorations.ConclusionsWe found some very low-quality evidence, from single studies, suggesting that rubber dam usage in dental direct

  17. Association between time to disease progression end points and overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simron Singh,1 Xufang Wang,2 Calvin HL Law1 1Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Center, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Novartis Oncology, Florham Park, NJ, USA Abstract: Overall survival can be difficult to determine for slowly progressing malignancies, such as neuroendocrine tumors. We investigated whether time to disease progression is positively associated with overall survival in patients with such tumors. A literature review identified 22 clinical trials in patients with neuroendocrine tumors that reported survival probabilities for both time to disease progression (progression-free survival and time to progression and overall survival. Associations between median time to disease progression and median overall survival and between treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival were analyzed using weighted least-squares regression. Median time to disease progression was significantly associated with median overall survival (coefficient 0.595; P=0.022. In the seven randomized studies identified, the risk reduction for time to disease progression was positively associated with the risk reduction for overall survival (coefficient on −ln[HR] 0.151; 95% confidence interval −0.843, 1.145; P=0.713. The significant association between median time to disease progression and median overall survival supports the assertion that time to disease progression is an alternative end point to overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. An apparent albeit not significant trend correlates treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival. Informal surveys of physicians’ perceptions are consistent with these concepts, although additional randomized trials are needed. Keywords: neuroendocrine tumors, progression-free survival, disease progression, mortality

  18. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  19. What affects local community hospitals' survival in turbulent times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Hung-Che; Wang, Shiow-Ing

    2015-06-01

    Hospital closures became a prevalent phenomenon in Taiwan after the implementation of a national health insurance program. A wide range of causes contributes to the viability of hospitals, but little is known about the situation under universal coverage health systems. The purpose of present study is to recognize the factors that may contribute to hospital survival under the universal coverage health system. This is a retrospective case-control study. Local community hospitals that contracted with the Bureau of National Health Insurance in 1998 and remained open during the period 1998-2011 are the designated cases. Controls are local community hospitals that closed during the same period. Using longitudinal representative health claim data, 209 local community hospitals that closed during 1998-2011 were compared with 165 that remained open. Variables related to institutional characteristics, degree of competition, characteristics of patients and financial performance were analyzed by logistic regression models. Hospitals' survival was positively related to specialty hospital, the number of respiratory care beds, the physician to population ratio, the number of clinics in the same region, a highly competitive market and the occupancy rate of elderly patients in the hospital. Teaching hospitals, investor-owned hospitals, the provision of obstetrics services or home care, and the number of medical centers or other local community hospitals may jeopardize the chance of survival. Factors-enhanced local hospitals to survive under the universal coverage health system have been identified. Hospital managers could manipulate these findings and adapt strategies for subsistence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  20. Characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in a series of 98 patients with giant cell arteritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenone, Thierry; Puget, Marie

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in patients with giant cell arteritis. Retrospective data were collected from 98 patients at a single hospital with giant cell arteritis (according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) diagnosed between October 1999 and January 2012. Cerebrovascular accident was found at initial presentation in 6 patients (6.1 %, 95 % CIs 2.3-12.9). Most of them had other symptoms of giant cell arteritis when the disease began. Signs reflecting the involvement of vertebro-basilar territory were present in 3 cases. No other case of cerebrovascular accident was described during the follow-up of patient; particularly no case of cerebrovascular accident occurred once corticosteroid therapy for the treatment of giant cell arteritis had been initiated. No differences in the epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory features at the time of diagnosis between patients who had cerebrovascular accidents and the rest of the giant cell arteritis patients were observed. Prognosis was good in our survey. However, there was no case of bilateral vertebral artery occlusion, a condition associated with poor prognosis. The present study confirms that cerebrovascular accidents may be the initial manifestation of giant cell arteritis, an argument in favor of a direct effect of the vasculitis in the development of cerebrovascular accidents rather than a complication of the corticosteroid therapy. The diagnosis of giant cell arteritis should always be considered in an elderly patient with stroke and an unexplained elevation of inflammatory biomarkers.

  1. Time dependence of the 137Cs resuspension factor on the Romanian territory after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihaila, B.; Cuculeanu, V.

    1994-01-01

    On the basis of the radioactivity levels in aerosol and atmospheric deposition samples due to the Chernobyl accident, the resuspension factor of 137 Cs as a four-parameter function has been inferred. The standard procedure to derive the dependence of resuspension on time assumes that the initial deposit is instantaneous. A simple method assuming a constant deposition rate over a fixed period has been proposed. Also, based on existing experimental data, an attempt was made to consider a realistic time dependence of the deposition rate to cope with the particular case of the Chernobyl accident. The differences between the two models are outlined. The Chernobyl direct deposit has been assumed to be the deposit measured between 30 April and 30 June 1986. The calculated values of the resuspension factor are consistent with the IAEA's recommended model and depend on the rainfall that occurred in June 1986 and the site-specific disturbance conditions during the first 100 d following 1 July 1986 and only on artificial disturbance by humans and vehicles after that. 16 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors......Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day...

  3. Methodology for time-dependent reliability analysis of accident sequences and complex reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paula, H.M.

    1984-01-01

    The work presented here is of direct use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is of value to utilities as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Specifically, this report presents a methodology and a computer program to calculate the expected number of occurrences for each accident sequence in an event tree. The methodology evaluates the time-dependent (instantaneous) and the average behavior of the accident sequence. The methodology accounts for standby safety system and component failures that occur (a) before they are demanded, (b) upon demand, and (c) during the mission (system operation). With respect to failures that occur during the mission, this methodology is unique in the sense that it models components that can be repaired during the mission. The expected number of system failures during the mission provides an upper bound for the probability of a system failure to run - the mission unreliability. The basic event modeling includes components that are continuously monitored, periodically tested, and those that are not tested or are otherwise nonrepairable. The computer program ASA allows practical applications of the method developed. This work represents a required extension of the presently available methodology and allows a more realistic PRA of nuclear power plants

  4. Evaluation of downmotion time interval molten materials to core catcher during core disruptive accidents postulated in LMFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voronov, S.A.; Kiryushin, A.I.; Kuzavkov, N.G.; Vlasichev, G.N.

    1994-01-01

    Hypothetical core disruptive accidents are postulated to clear potential of a reactor plant to withstand extreme conditions and to generate measures for management and mitigation of accidents consequence. In Russian advanced reactors there is a core catcher below the diagrid to prevent vessel bottom melting and to localize fuel debris. In this paper the calculation technique and estimation of relocation time of molten fuel and materials are presented in the case of core disruptive accidents postulated for LMFR reactor. To evaluate minimum interval of fuel relocation time the calculations for different initial data are provided. Large mass of materials between the core and the catcher in LMFR reactor hinders molten materials relocation toward the vessel bottom. That condition increases the time interval of reaching core catcher by molten fuel. Computations performed allowed to evaluate the minimum molten materials relocation time from the core to the core catcher. This time interval is in a range of 3.5-5.5 hours. (author)

  5. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population's traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Youngok; Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people's traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people's traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people's traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers' traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims' hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers' hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future.

  6. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population’s traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people’s traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people’s traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people’s traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers’ traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims’ hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers’ hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future. PMID:29768453

  7. Early morning awakening and nonrestorative sleep are associated with increased minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Wang, Mei-Yeh; Chang, Cheng-Kuei; Chen, Ching-Min; Chou, Kuei-Ru; Tsai, Jen-Chen; Tsai, Pei-Shan

    2014-10-01

    The relationship between a composite measure of insomnia and occupational or fatal accidents has been investigated previously; however, little is known regarding the effect of various insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. We investigated the predicting role of insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. Data from the 2005 Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey of 36,473 Taiwanese aged ≥18 years were analyzed in 2013. Insomnia symptoms, including difficulty in initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty in maintaining sleep (DMS), early morning awakening (EMA), and nonrestorative sleep (NRS) were investigated. A minor non-fatal accident was defined as any mishap such as forgetting to turn off the gas or faucets, accidental falls, and abrasions or cuts occurring during work and leisure time in the past month that do not require immediate medical attention. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) of minor non-fatal accidents (as a binary variable) for each insomnia symptom compared with those of people presenting no symptoms, while controlling for possible confounders. EMA and NRS increased the odds of minor non-fatal accidents occurring during work and leisure time (adjusted OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.32 and adjusted OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.17-1.37, respectively). EMA and NRS are two symptoms that are significantly associated with an increased likelihood of minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time after adjusting for of a range of covariates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

    OpenAIRE

    Kaishev, V. K.; Haberman, S.; Dimitrova, D. S.

    2005-01-01

    The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian cop...

  9. A multi-disciplinary assessment of operator action time for mitigating a postulated accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, C.D.; Fields, C.C.; Hightower, N.T. III; Buczek, J.A.; Jenkins, T.B.; Swanson, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    This report discusses mitigation of the postulated Loss of Heat Sink Accident for the Savannah River Site K Reactor which requires operator action to place the plant in a water conservation configuration. In August 1991, concerns were raised about the allowances in the safety analyses for operator action times in an unpowered scenario, where several valves would be manually closed. WSRC management conservatively decided to include explicit consideration of a seismic initiator for this scenario, which introduced the additional concern that operator actions could be hindered by tritium from flange leakage. The revised analyses concluded that the powered case documented in the Safety Analysis Report is limiting and that all acceptance criteria are met

  10. 137Cs in soil and fallout around Zagreb (Croatia) at the time of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šoštarić, Marko; Petrinec, Branko; Babić, Dinko

    2013-12-01

    This paper addresses the noticeable increase of 137Cs activity concentrations in soil and fallout in the area surrounding Zagreb (Croatia) that occurred at the time of the 2011 Fukushima accident. This topic is important for public health as 137Cs is highly toxic due to its long half-life of radioactive decay and chemical similarity to potassium. 137Cs concentrations in fallout were much greater than in soil, but remained present longer in the latter. While being detectable in our measurements, 137Cs did not spread through the food chain in amounts exceeding the maximum allowed level of radioactive food contamination. However, more thorough and consistent measurements need to be done in order to establish the precise activity trends of 137Cs in Zagreb soil and fallout.

  11. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay; Sen, Ashoke; Verma, Mritunjay

    2015-01-01

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  12. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Sen, Ashoke [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study,Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Verma, Mritunjay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); International Centre for Theoretical Sciences,Malleshwaram, Bengaluru 560 012 (India)

    2015-09-21

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  13. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  14. Enhancement of radiation effect on mouse intestinal crypt survival by timing of 5-fluorouracil administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, E.; Coffey, C.; Maruyama, Y.

    1977-01-01

    There is a marked dependence of mouse crypt survival on the sequence of combined drug-radiation treatment and on the time lapse between irradiation and drug administration. When 5-fluorouracil is administered 6 hours after irradiation or later (up to 18 hours postirradiation), crypt survival drops significantly

  15. Survival and prognostic factors at time of diagnosis in high-grade appendicular osteosarcoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colding-Rasmussen, Thomas; Thorn, Andrea Pohly; Horstmann, Peter

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Survival of patients with high-grade osteosarcoma (HOS), the most common primary bone cancer, has not improved significantly the last 30 years and the disease remains a major challenge. The purpose of this study is to evaluate survival in relation to prognostic factors at time of diag...

  16. Real-time assessment of radiation burden of the population in the vicinity of nuclear power plants during radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubna, M.

    1986-01-01

    The method is presented of real-time calculation of the radiation situation (dose equivalents) in the environs of a nuclear power plant in case of an accident involving the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere, this for the potentially most significant exposure paths in the initial and medium stages of the accident. The method allows to take into consideration the time dependence of the rate of radioactive substance release from the nuclear power plant and to assess the development in space and time of the radiation situation in the environs of the nuclear power plant. The use of the method is illustrated by an example of the calculation of the development of the radiation situation for model accidents of a hypothetical PWR with containment. (author)

  17. Long-term disorders of memory in the persons survived acute radiation sickness due to Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antipchuk, K.Yu.

    2003-01-01

    The study involved two groups of the patients: main group - 52 men survived ARS aged 35-55, controls - 23 healthy men aged 36-55. Auditory and visual memory was studied. The obtained results suggest that the changes in the structure of the anterior portions of the brain which are responsible for obtaining, processing and reproduction of verbal information, namely the cortex of the left temporal and frontal regions with their cortical-subcortical associations, play the leading role in the memory disorders in persons survived ARS

  18. Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zhao, Wei; Bettati, Riccardo; Vaidya, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    This document is the final report for Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems, a Texas A AND M project funded through the DARPA Fault Tolerant Networks Program...

  19. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  20. On the Survival Time of a Duplex System: A Sokhotski-Plemelj Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmond J. Vanderperre

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the survival time of a renewable duplex system characterized by warm standby and subjected to a priority rule. In order to obtain the Laplace transform of the survival function, we employ a stochastic process endowed with time-dependent transition measures satisfying coupled partial differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions combined with the notion of dual transforms. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a prescribed security level and a suitable risk criterion based on the survival function of the system. As an example, we consider the particular case of deterministic repair. A computer-plotted graph displays the survival function together with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90%.

  1. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  2. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  3. Median Survival Time of Endometrial Cancer Patients with Lymphovascular Invasion at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyikeen, Wan Adnan Wan Nor; Siti-Azrin, Ab Hamid; Jalil, Nur Asyilla Che; Zin, Anani Aila Mat; Othman, Nor Hayati

    2016-11-01

    Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecologic malignancy among females worldwide. The purpose of this study was to determine the median survival time of endometrial cancer patients at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). A list of 121 endometrial cancer cases registered at Hospital USM between 2000 until 2011 was retrospectively reviewed. The survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Log-rank tests were performed to compare the survival of the patients based on socio-demographics and clinical presentation. Only 108 patients, 87.0%, were included who were of Malay ethnicity. Previous history included menopause in 67.6% of patients and diabetes mellitus in 39.8% of patients; additionally, 63.4% of patients were nulliparous. Tumour staging was as follows: 24.5% stage I, 10.8% stage II, 26.5% stage III and 38.2% stage IV. The overall median survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was 70.20 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 51.79, 88.61). The significant factors were age, the presence of lymphovascular invasion and treatment received. The overall survival of endometrial cancer was low. A prospective study needs to be carried out to discover more effective and accurate tests for the early detection of endometrial cancer.

  4. Median survival time of patients after transcatheter chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haider, Z.; Haq, T.; Munir, K.; Usman, M.U.; Azeemuddin, M.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine the effect on survival after trans arterial chemo embolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: Radiology Department, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, from December 1997 to September 2005. Patients and Methods: Patients undergoing TACE procedure for HCC were prospectively followed. Forty three patients were enrolled from December 1997 to March 2003 in the study and subjected to chemo embolization therapy. Eight out of 43 patients were excluded from the study, who lost to follow-up. All the patients were followed till their death. Median and mean survival were calculated. Results: The median survival of these 35 patients was 410 days (13.6 months), with 95% confidence interval (236 days lower bound and 536 days upper bound). Mean survival time was 603 days (20.1 months) with 95% confidence interval (394 days lower bound and 812 days upper bound). There was significant difference in mean survival time (in days) by Child's Pugh class (X2 = 12.384; df=2, p-value=0.002). Conclusion: The study showed that TACE is an effective palliative treatment. TACE increases the median survival time. (author)

  5. Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

    2014-04-01

    According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

  6. The time dependent association of adrenaline administration and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewy, Gordon A; Bobrow, Bentley J; Chikani, Vatsal; Sanders, Arthur B; Otto, Charles W; Spaite, Daniel W; Kern, Karl B

    2015-11-01

    Recommended for decades, the therapeutic value of adrenaline (epinephrine) in the resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is controversial. To investigate the possible time-dependent outcomes associated with adrenaline administration by Emergency Medical Services personnel (EMS). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a near statewide cardiac resuscitation database between 1 January 2005 and 30 November 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the time interval between EMS dispatch and the initial dose of adrenaline on survival. The primary endpoints were survival to hospital discharge and favourable neurologic outcome. Data from 3469 patients with witnessed OHCA were analyzed. Their mean age was 66.3 years and 69% were male. An initially shockable rhythm was present in 41.8% of patients. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model with initial adrenaline administration time interval (AATI) from EMS dispatch as the covariate, survival was greatest when adrenaline was administered very early but decreased rapidly with increasing (AATI); odds ratio 0.94 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.92-0.97). The AATI had no significant effect on good neurological outcome (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.90-1.02). In patients with OHCA, survival to hospital discharge was greater in those treated early with adrenaline by EMS especially in the subset of patients with a shockable rhythm. However survival rapidly decreased with increasing adrenaline administration time intervals (AATI). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajendragadkar, Parag R; Moualed, Daniel J; Nicolson, Phillip L R; Adjei, Felicia D; Cakebread, Holly E; Duehmke, Rudolf M; Martin, Claire A

    2013-12-14

    To quantify the consumption of chocolates in a hospital ward environment. Multicentre, prospective, covert observational study. Four wards at three hospitals (where the authors worked) within the United Kingdom. Boxes of Quality Street (Nestlé) and Roses (Cadbury) on the ward and anyone eating these chocolates. Observers covertly placed two 350 g boxes of Quality Street and Roses chocolates on each ward (eight boxes were used in the study containing a total of 258 individual chocolates). These boxes were kept under continuous covert surveillance, with the time recorded when each chocolate was eaten. Median survival time of a chocolate. 191 out of 258 (74%) chocolates were observed being eaten. The mean total observation period was 254 minutes (95% confidence interval 179 to 329). The median survival time of a chocolate was 51 minutes (39 to 63). The model of chocolate consumption was non-linear, with an initial rapid rate of consumption that slowed with time. An exponential decay model best fitted these findings (model R(2)=0.844, P<0.001), with a survival half life (time taken for 50% of the chocolates to be eaten) of 99 minutes. The mean time taken to open a box of chocolates from first appearance on the ward was 12 minutes (95% confidence interval 0 to 24). Quality Street chocolates survived longer than Roses chocolates (hazard ratio for survival of Roses v Quality Street 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.93, P=0.014). The highest percentages of chocolates were consumed by healthcare assistants (28%) and nurses (28%), followed by doctors (15%). From our observational study, chocolate survival in a hospital ward was relatively short, and was modelled well by an exponential decay model. Roses chocolates were preferentially consumed to Quality Street chocolates in a ward setting. Chocolates were consumed primarily by healthcare assistants and nurses, followed by doctors. Further practical studies are needed.

  8. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  9. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  10. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  11. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Time changes in radiocesium concentration in aquatic systems affected by the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Yuichi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Iwagami, Sho; Tsujimura, Maki; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masatoshi

    2015-04-01

    Due to Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, radioactive materials including Cs-134 and Cs-137 were widely distributed in surrounded area. The radiocesiums have been transported in river networks. The monitoring started at 6 sites from June 2011. Subsequently, additional 24 monitoring sites were installed between October 2012 and January 2013. Flow and turbidity (for calculation of suspended sediment concentration) were measured at each site, while suspended sediments and river water were collected every one or half month to measure Cs-134 and Cs-137 activity concentrations by gamma spectrometry. Also detailed field monitoring has been condcuted in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. These monitoring includes, 1) Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use, 2) 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope, 3) Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water, 4)Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment, and 5)Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide

  13. Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Joshua L; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2018-06-01

    While there is a literature on the distribution of food stores across geographic and social space, much of this research uses cross-sectional data. Analyses attempting to understand whether the availability of stores across neighborhoods is associated with diet and/or health outcomes are limited by a lack of understanding of factors that shape the emergence of new stores and the closure of others. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations spanning seven years (2006-2012) and tract-level census data in four US cities: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Francisco, California. A spatial discrete-time survival model was used to identify factors associated with an earlier and/or later closure time of a store. Sales volume was typically the strongest indicator of store survival. We identified heterogeneity in the association between tract-level poverty and racial composition with respect to store survival. Stores in high poverty, non-White tracts were often at a disadvantage in terms of survival length. The observed patterns of store survival varied by some of the same neighborhood sociodemographic factors associated with lifestyle and health outcomes, which could lead to confusion in interpretation in studies of the estimated effects of introduction of food stores into neighborhoods on health.

  14. Survivability Assessment: Modeling A Recovery Process

    OpenAIRE

    Paputungan, Irving Vitra; Abdullah, Azween

    2009-01-01

    Survivability is the ability of a system to continue operating, in a timely manner, in the presence ofattacks, failures, or accidents. Recovery in survivability is a process of a system to heal or recover from damageas early as possible to fulfill its mission as condition permit. In this paper, we show a preliminary recoverymodel to enhance the system survivability. The model focuses on how we preserve the system and resumes itscritical service under attacks as soon as possible.Keywords: surv...

  15. Time to treatment as a quality metric in lung cancer: Staging studies, time to treatment, and patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, Daniel R.; Liao, Kai-Ping; Swisher, Stephen G.; Blumenschein, George R.; Erasmus, Jeremy J.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Giordano, Sharon H.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis

  16. [Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing, 1995-2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y; Wang, J; He, S F; Chen, J; Lu, H Y

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To analyze the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing from 1995 to 2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data of 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related with survival time. Results: Among 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases, 303 (2.4%) died of AIDS related diseases; 9 346 (72.6%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 226.5 months (95 %CI : 223.0-230.1), and the survival rates of 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 98.2%, 96.4%, 93.2%, and 91.9% respectively. Multivariate Cox proportion hazard regression model showed that AIDS phase ( HR =1.439, 95 %CI : 1.041-1.989), heterosexual transmission ( HR =1.646, 95 %CI : 1.184-2.289), being married ( HR =2.186, 95 %CI : 1.510-3.164); older age (≥60 years) at diagnosis ( HR =6.608, 95 %CI : 3.546-12.316); lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at diagnosis (<350 cells/μl) ( HR =8.711, 95 %CI : 5.757-13.181); receiving no antiretroviral therapy (ART) ( HR =18.223, 95 %CI : 13.317-24.937) were the high risk factors influencing the survival of AIDS patients compared with HIV phase, homosexual transmission, being unmarried, younger age (≤30 years), higher CD(4)(+)T cell count (≥350 cell/μl) and receiving ART. Conclusion: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was 226.5 months after diagnoses. Receiving ART, higher CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, HIV phase, younger age, being unmarried and the homosexual transmission were related to the longer survival time of HIV/AIDS cases. Receiving no ART, the lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, AIDS phase, older age, being married and heterosexual transmission indicated higher risk of death due to AIDS.

  17. Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Bradley G; Coburn, Brian J; Blower, Sally

    2013-01-01

    Treating HIV-infected individuals reduces their viral load, consequently increasing their survival time and decreasing their infectivity. It has been proposed that universal testing and treatment (i.e., universal "test & treat'') could lead to HIV elimination and would be extremely cost-effective. It is now being debated whether to use a universal "test & treat'' approach in the "real-world'' as a prevention strategy to control HIV epidemics. However current modeling predictions of the impact, and cost-effectiveness, of universal `"est & treat'' strategies are based on an unrealistically short survival time for treated individuals. Here we use mathematical modeling and a longer, more realistic, survival time. We model the potential impact of a universal "test & treat'' strategy in South Africa. Our results show that increasing the length of the survival time on treatment, although beneficial to individuals, reduces the probability of eliminating HIV and decreases the cost-effectiveness of using universal "test & treat'' strategies. Therefore our results show that individual-level benefits and public health benefits will conflict when using "test &treat'' strategies to reduce HIV transmission.

  18. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  19. Palliative Sedation in Advanced Cancer Patients: Does it Shorten Survival Time? - A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barathi, B; Chandra, Prabha S

    2013-01-01

    Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST) was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  20. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  1. Effect of bifidobacteria implantation on the survival time of whole-body irradiated mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokokura, Teruo; Onoue, Masaharu; Mutai, Masahiko

    1980-01-01

    Letahl dose (2 KR) of gamma-ray was irradiated on the whole bodies of mice. Survival time after irradiation was significantly longer in mice with administration of both Bifidobacterium breve YIT 4008 and transgalactosyl oligosaccharide than in mice with administration of either of the two or nothing. (Tsunoda, M.)

  2. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  3. It's Deja Vu All over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willett, John B.; Singer, Judith D.

    1995-01-01

    The multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis method is introduced and illustrated using longitudinal data on exit from and reentry into the teaching profession. The method is applicable to many educational problems involving the sequential occurrence of disparate events or episodes. (SLD)

  4. Effect of antibiotic decontamination of the GI tract on survival time after neutron and gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geraci, J.P.; Jackson, K.L.; Mariano, M.S.

    1984-01-01

    Antibiotic decontaminated and conventional rats were whole-body irradiated with 8 MeV neutrons (1.5 to 13 Gy) or 137 Cs gamma radiation (9 to 20 Gy). The animals were checked for survival at four hour intervals from the second to the seventh day postirradiation and at eight hour intervals on other days. Decontamination of the GI tract increased median survival time 1 to 5 days in this range of dose dependency, whereas the effect of decontamination was negligible for doses that produced mostly intestinal death. These results suggest that sepsis and endotoxin produced by bacteria from the intestinal tract play little role in acute intestinal radiation death

  5. Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

    OpenAIRE

    Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

  6. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garzon, Benjamin; Emblem, Kyrre E.; Mouridsen, Kim; Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K.; Bjoernerud, Atle; Haaberg, Asta K.; Kvinnsland, Yngve

    2011-01-01

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  7. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garzon, Benjamin (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)), email: benjamin.garzon@ntnu.no; Emblem, Kyrre E. (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Dept. of Radiology, MGH-HST AA Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)); Mouridsen, Kim (Center of Functionally Integrative Neuroscience, Aarhus Univ., Aarhus (Denmark)); Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K. (Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Bjoernerud, Atle (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Haaberg, Asta K. (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Dept. of Medical Imaging, St Olav' s Hospital, Trondheim (Norway)); Kvinnsland, Yngve (NordicImagingLab, Bergen (Norway))

    2011-11-15

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  8. The preparation of tourists to the ski sports tours in a limited time in order to prevent injuries and accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Toporkov

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: compare indicators of testing tourist skiers at different stages of the preparatory period to ski sports hike of third grade. Determine the effectiveness of training programs created to the tourists Categorical ski sports to prevent injuries and accidents in a limited time. Material: The study involved 13 people aged from 21 to 65 (4 women and 9 men with different experiences of hiking trails and various levels of total tourist preparedness. Results: The test results obtained before beginning the process of preparation are treated upon its completion, and immediately after passing categorical hike. In practice, the effectiveness of the proposed training programs of tourists to ski sports tours is proved. Conclusions : The created program can be recommended to tourist clubs, associations and organizations as the base in preparation for ski sports campaigns for the prevention of accidents and injuries.

  9. 33 CFR 150.503 - What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls? 150.503 Section 150.503 Navigation and Navigable Waters... maintenance on survival craft falls? (a) Each fall used in a launching device for survival craft or rescue...

  10. Application of accelerated failure time models for breast cancer patients' survival in Kurdistan Province of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Asrin; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women. There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients using accelerated failure time models (AFT). This was a retrospective-analytic cohort study. About 313 women with a pathologically proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a 7-year period (since January 2006 until March 2014) in Sanandaj City, Kurdistan Province of Iran were recruited. Performance among AFT was assessed using the goodness of fit methods. Discrimination among the exponential, Weibull, generalized gamma, log-logistic, and log-normal distributions was done using Akaik information criteria and maximum likelihood. The 5 years OS was 75% (95% CI = 74.57-75.43). The main results in terms of survival were found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate, tumor metastasis, and relapse of cancer. Survival time in breast cancer patients without tumor metastasis and relapse were 4, 2-fold longer than other patients with metastasis and relapse, respectively. One of the most important undermining prognostic factors in breast cancer is metastasis; hence, knowledge of the mechanisms of metastasis is necessary to prevent it so occurrence and treatment of metastatic breast cancer and ultimately extend the lifetime of patients.

  11. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  12. Survival time and effect of selected predictor variables on survival in owned pet cats seropositive for feline immunodeficiency and leukemia virus attending a referral clinic in northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Eva; Perego, Roberta; Sgamma, Elena Assunta; Proverbio, Daniela

    2018-02-01

    Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are among the most important feline infectious diseases worldwide. This retrospective study investigated survival times and effects of selected predictor factors on survival time in a population of owned pet cats in Northern Italy testing positive for the presence of FIV antibodies and FeLV antigen. One hundred and three retrovirus-seropositive cats, 53 FIV-seropositive cats, 40 FeLV-seropositive cats, and 10 FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were included in the study. A population of 103 retrovirus-seronegative age and sex-matched cats was selected. Survival time was calculated and compared between retrovirus-seronegative, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to study the effect of selected predictor factors (male gender, peripheral blood cytopenia as reduced red blood cells - RBC- count, leukopenia, neutropenia and lymphopenia, hypercreatininemia and reduced albumin to globulin ratio) on survival time in retrovirus-seropositive populations. Median survival times for seronegative cats, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were 3960, 2040, 714 and 77days, respectively. Compared to retrovirus-seronegative cats median survival time was significantly lower (P<0.000) in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats. Median survival time in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats was also significant lower (P<0.000) when compared to FIV-seropositive cats. Hazard ratio of death in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats being respectively 3.4 and 7.4 times higher, in comparison to seronegative cats and 2.3 and 4.8 times higher in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats as compared to FIV-seropositive cats. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with reduced RBC counts at time of diagnosis of seropositivity had significantly shorter survival times when compared to FIV and Fe

  13. Clinical findings and survival time in dogs with advanced heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumier, Amelie; Rush, John E; Yang, Vicky K; Freeman, Lisa M

    2018-04-10

    Dogs with advanced heart failure are a clinical challenge for veterinarians but there are no studies reporting clinical features and outcome of this population. To describe clinical findings and outcome of dogs with advanced heart failure caused by degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Fifty-four dogs with advanced heart failure because of DMVD. For study purposes, advanced heart failure was defined as recurrence of congestive heart failure signs despite receiving the initially prescribed dose of pimobendan, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), and furosemide >4 mg/kg/day. Data were collected for the time of diagnosis of Stage C heart failure and time of diagnosis of advanced heart failure. Date of death was recorded. At the diagnosis of advanced heart failure, doses of pimobendan (n = 30), furosemide (n = 28), ACEI (n = 13), and spironolactone (n = 4) were increased, with ≥1 new medications added in most dogs. After initial diagnosis of advanced heart failure, 38 (70%) dogs had additional medications adjustments (median = 2 [range, 0-27]), with the final total medication number ranging from 2-10 (median = 5). Median survival time after diagnosis of advanced heart failure was 281 days (range, 3-885 days). Dogs receiving a furosemide dose >6.70 mg/kg/day had significantly longer median survival times (402 days [range, 3-885 days] versus 129 days [range 9-853 days]; P = .017). Dogs with advanced heart failure can have relatively long survival times. Higher furosemide dose and non-hospitalization were associated with longer survival. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  14. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  15. Survival times with and without tube feeding in patients with dementia or psychiatric diseases in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Keiko; Hirayama, Keisuke; Hirao, Akihiko; Kondo, Keiko; Hayashi, Hideki; Kadota, Koichi; Asaba, Hiroyuki; Ishizu, Hideki; Nakata, Kenji; Kurisu, Kairi; Oshima, Etsuko; Yokota, Osamu; Yamada, Norihito; Terada, Seishi

    2017-11-01

    It is widely supposed that there has been no evidence of increased survival in patients with advanced dementia receiving enteral tube feeding. However, more than a few studies have reported no harmful outcome from tube feeding in dementia patients compared to in patients without dementia. This was a retrospective study. Nine psychiatric hospitals in Okayama Prefecture participated in this survey. All inpatients fulfilling the entry criteria were evaluated. All subjects suffered from difficulty with oral intake. Attending physicians thought that the patients could not live without long-term artificial nutrition. The physicians decided whether to make use of long-term artificial nutrition between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 185 patients. Their mean age was 76.6 ± 11.4 years. Of all subjects, patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 78) formed the biggest group, schizophrenia patients (n = 44) the second, and those with vascular dementia (n = 30) the third. The median survival times were 711 days for patients with tube feeding and 61 days for patients without tube feeding. In a comparison different types of tube feeding, median survival times were 611 days for patients with a nasogastric tube and more than 1000 days for those with a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube. Patients with tube feeding survived longer than those without tube feeding, even among dementia patients. This study suggests that enteral nutrition for patients with dementia prolongs survival. Additionally, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube feeding may be safer than nasogastric tube feeding among patients in psychiatric hospitals. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  16. Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeffer, W.; Hofer, E.; Nowak, E.; Schnadt, H.

    1988-01-01

    The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  17. Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... of the investigated process. Our findings indicate a need for more research in this area, and establishment of common correction methodology....

  18. The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

  19. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  20. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Movahhed

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration.

  1. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  2. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  3. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  4. Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

    2017-10-01

    Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, W.

    1980-01-01

    This lecture on 'Postulated Accidents' is the first of a series of lectures on the dynamic and transient behaviour of nuclear power plants, especially pressurized water reactors. The main points covered will be: Reactivity Accidents, Transients (Intact Loop) and Loss of Cooland Accidents (LOCA) including small leak. This lecture will discuss the accident analysis in general, the definition of the various operational phases, the accident classification, and, as an example, an accident sequence analysis on the basis of 'Postulated Accidents'. (orig./RW)

  6. Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-12-20

    Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median

  7. Thyroid cancer among Ukrainians and Belarusians who were children or adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P; Bogdanova, T I; Buglova, E; Chepurniy, M; Demidchik, Y; Gavrilin, Y; Kenigsberg, J; Kruk, J; Schotola, C; Shinkarev, S; Tronko, M D; Vavilov, S

    2006-01-01

    Our objective is to assess the regional and temporal dependences of the baseline cases contributing to thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood or during adolescence in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Data are analysed for Kyiv and Sevastopol City and the 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and for Minsk and Gomel City and the 6 oblasts in Belarus. Average thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for every birth year in the period from 1968 to 1985. Case data pertain to people who underwent surgical removal of thyroid cancers during the period 1986 to 2001 and who were allocated to their place of residence at the time of the accident. The 35 oblasts/cities were subdivided into an upper, middle and lower group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. Poisson regressions were performed to estimate age, time and gender dependences of the baseline incidence rates in the three groups. The majority of oblasts/cities with high average doses and the majority of Belarusian oblasts/cities belong to the upper group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. The baseline in the upper group is estimated to be larger than in the middle group by a factor of 2.3, and by a factor of 4.0 when compared to the lower group. The baseline incidence increases with age and with time since exposure. Estimated baseline incidence rates were found to increase from 1988 to 1999 by factors of three and two for the upper and the two lower groups respectively. The estimated thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus and Ukraine, and their dependences on gender and age, are consistent with observed rates found in the larger cancer registries of other countries. In conclusion, the baseline cases are found to contribute about 70% to the thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine, and about 40% to the incidence in Belarus

  8. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A.; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Importance Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. Objective To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Exposures Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Results Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87

  9. Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

    2016-02-01

    Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

    2018-01-25

    We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

  11. The role of donor age and ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rizzo, D F; Menkis, A H; Pflugfelder, P W; Novick, R J; McKenzie, F N; Boyd, W D; Kostuk, W J

    1999-04-01

    The advances in immunotherapy, along with a liberalization of eligibility criteria have contributed significantly to the ever increasing demand for donor organs. In an attempt to expand the donor pool, transplant programs are now accepting older donors as well as donors from more remote areas. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of donor age and organ ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). From April 1981 to December 1996 372 adult patients underwent OHT at the University of Western Ontario. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of outcome. Variables affecting survival were then entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to develop probability models for 30-day- and 1-year-mortality. The mean age of the recipient population was 45.6 +/- 12.3 years (range 18-64 years: 54 56 years). The majority (329 patients, 86.1%) were male and the most common indications for OHT were ischemic (n = 180) and idiopathic (n = 171) cardiomyopathy. Total ischemic time (TIT) was 202.4 +/- 84.5 minutes (range 47-457 minutes). In 86 donors TIT was under 2 hours while it was between 2 and 4 hours in 168, and more than 4 hours in 128 donors. Actuarial survival was 80%, 73%, and 55% at 1, 5, and 10 years respectively. By Cox proportional hazards models, recipient status (Status I-II vs III-IV; risk ratio 1.75; p = 0.003) and donor age, examined as either a continuous or categorical variable ([age or = 35; risk ratio 1.98; p or = 50; risk ratio 2.20; p or = 50; risk ratio 1.83; p 50 years (p = 0.009). By stepwise logistic regression analysis, a probability model for survival was then developed based on donor age, the interaction between donor age and ischemic time, and patient status. Improvements in myocardial preservation and peri-operative management may allow for the safe utilization of donor organs with prolonged ischemic times. Older donors are associated with decreased peri-operative and long

  12. Framing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: An international, comparative study of news frames in Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannakopoulos, Thanos

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated into the news frames employed in reporting on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, explored the maintenance of the radiation reporting standard, and assessed the overall tone for the local government, the Japanese Government, and the IAEA. Based on content from Der Spiegel, the Japan Times and the Los Angeles Times (n=60), it was found that media evoked 'conflict', 'responsibility attribution', and 'human interest' frames, radiation reporting standard was marginally maintained, and the overall tone was neutral (local government, IAEA) or negative (Japanese Government). Variances across countries were observed, but results coincided with the country's nuclear energy policy. (author)

  13. The role of accident theory in injury prevention - time for the pendulum to swing back.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Ragnar

    2012-01-01

    Injury prevention is a branch of safety sciences. While comprehensive theoretical developments occurred in the wider field in the last decades, little of these developments reached and influenced the injury prevention community. Instead, a clear retro trend 'back to basics' is seen among injury prevention scholars, especially to Dr William Haddon's pioneering work some 50 years ago. This paper intends to draw attention to this polarisation and discuss possible explanations. It is argued that the strong campaign against the accident concept among leading injury prevention groupings became a serious hindrance for theoretical exchange. The underlying process is interpreted in terms of a struggle for ownership over this truly interdisciplinary field of research, unfortunately at the expense of theoretical stagnation in injury prevention circles and lessened interest in collaboration from other scientific areas. This paper is written as a tribute to Professor Leif Svanström and his scientific contributions, with special regard to his genuine interest in interdisciplinary research.

  14. The behavior of radioactive iodine at the time of reactor accident and its counterplan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murata, Toshifumi

    1974-01-01

    When an accident occurs in a reactor, very volatile radioactive iodine is most dangerous among fission products. Among the isotopes of radioactive iodine, 131 I which has longer half-life is harmful. Supposing one-tenth of the radioactivity of 10 8 Ci in a reactor of 10 6 Kw heat output is due to 131 I, it weights about 100g. The behavior of the radioactive iodine is greatly subjected to the influence of inside temperature and other conditions. Therefore, very prudent policies are adopted by installing emergency core cooling system, containment vessels, and activated carbon filters. For the emergency core cooling system, water spraying, flooding with low pressure water, and maintaining of water level by high pressure water injection are adopted, while in the containment vessels, measures are taken so as to lower the inside pressure and minimize leakage. (Kobatake, H.)

  15. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  16. Accidents (FARS) (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Accident - (1975-current): This data file (NTAD) contains information about crash characteristics and environmental conditions at the time of the crash. There is one...

  17. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMillan, Matthew T.; Ojerholm, Eric; Roses, Robert E.; Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M.; Mamtani, Ronac; Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A.; Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Datta, Jashodeep

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered

  18. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  19. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  20. Does prehospital time affect survival of major trauma patients where there is no prehospital care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S B Dharap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Survival after major trauma is considered to be time dependent. Efficient prehospital care with rapid transport is the norm in developed countries, which is not available in many lower middle and low-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prehospital time and primary treatment given on survival of major trauma patients in a setting without prehospital care. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out in a university hospital in Mumbai, from January to December 2014. The hospital has a trauma service but no organized prehospital care or defined interhospital transfer protocols. All patients with life- and/or limb-threatening injuries were included in the study. Injury time and arrival time were noted and the interval was defined as “prehospital time” for the directly arriving patients and as “time to tertiary care” for those transferred. Primary outcome measure was in-hospital death (or discharge. Results: Of 1181 patients, 352 were admitted directly from the trauma scene and 829 were transferred from other hospitals. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, mechanism and mode of injury, shock, Glasgow Coma Score <9, Injury Severity Score ≥16, need for intubation, and ventilatory support on arrival; but neither with prehospital time nor with time to tertiary care. Transferred patients had a significantly higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.869, 95% confidence interval = 1.233–2.561, P = 0.005 despite fewer patients with severe injury. Two hundred and ninety-four (35% of these needed airway intervention while 108 (13% needed chest tube insertion on arrival to the trauma unit suggesting inadequate care at primary facility. Conclusion: Mortality is not associated with prehospital time but with transfers from primary care; probably due to deficient care. To improve survival after major trauma, enhancement of resources for resuscitation and capacity building of on

  1. Parent-child communication and marijuana initiation: evidence using discrete-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C; Dench, Daniel

    2012-12-01

    This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or - in the case of youth reports of communication - potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Association of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival according to ambulance response-times after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus...... 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander...... CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish...

  3. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and its relation to survival among patients with stage III colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, A C R K; van Erning, F N; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G J M; Punt, C J A; van Oijen, M G H; Lemmens, V E P P

    2015-11-01

    Currently available data suggest that delaying the start of adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer patients has a detrimental effect on survival. We analysed which factors impact on the timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and evaluated the influence on overall survival (OS). Stage III colon cancer patients who underwent resection and received adjuvant chemotherapy between 2008 and 2013 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy was subdivided into: ⩽ 4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12 and 13-16 weeks post-surgery. Multivariable regressions were performed to assess the influence of several factors on the probability of starting treatment within 8 weeks post-surgery and to evaluate the association of timing of adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-year OS. 6620 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy, 14% commenced after 8 weeks. Factors associated with starting treatment after 8 weeks were older age (Odds ratio (OR) 65-74 versus colon cancer patients within 8 weeks post-surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Biologically-equivalent dose and long-term survival time in radiation treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaider, Marco; Hanin, Leonid

    2007-01-01

    Within the linear-quadratic model the biologically-effective dose (BED)-taken to represent treatments with an equal tumor control probability (TCP)-is commonly (and plausibly) calculated according to BED(D) = -log[S(D)]/α. We ask whether in the presence of cellular proliferation this claim is justified and examine, as a related question, the extent to which BED approximates an isoeffective dose (IED) defined, more sensibly, in terms of an equal long-term survival probability, rather than TCP. We derive, under the assumption that cellular birth and death rates are time homogeneous, exact equations for the isoeffective dose, IED. As well, we give a rigorous definition of effective long-term survival time, T eff . By using several sets of radiobiological parameters, we illustrate potential differences between BED and IED on the one hand and, on the other, between T eff calculated as suggested here or by an earlier recipe. In summary: (a) the equations currently in use for calculating the effective treatment time may underestimate the isoeffective dose and should be avoided. The same is the case for the tumor control probability (TCP), only more so; (b) for permanent implants BED may be a poor substitute for IED; (c) for a fractionated treatment schedule, interpreting the observed probability of cure in terms of a TCP formalism that refers to the end of the treatment (rather than T eff ) may result in a miscalculation (underestimation) of the initial number of clonogens

  5. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Koslovsky, Matthew D.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2018-01-01

    Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

  6. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data from Orthostatic Tilt Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. M.; Westby, Christian M.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2014-01-01

    Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) is the propensity to develop symptoms of fainting during upright standing. OI is associated with changes in heart rate, blood pressure and other measures of cardiac function. Problem: NASA astronauts have shown increased susceptibility to OI on return from space missions. Current methods for counteracting OI in astronauts include fluid loading and the use of compression garments. Multivariate trajectory spread is greater as OI increases. Pairwise comparisons at the same time within subjects allows incorporation of pass/fail outcomes. Path length, convex hull area, and covariance matrix determinant do well as statistics to summarize this spread Missing data problems Time series analysis need many more time points per OTT session treatment of trend? how incorporate survival information?

  7. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

    2015-02-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  8. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  9. Gene expression profiling of canine osteosarcoma reveals genes associated with short and long survival times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao Nagesha AS

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the

  10. Exposure to aged crumb rubber reduces survival time during a stress test in earthworms (Eisenia fetida).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pochron, Sharon; Nikakis, Jacqueline; Illuzzi, Kyra; Baatz, Andrea; Demirciyan, Loriana; Dhillon, Amritjot; Gaylor, Thomas; Manganaro, Alexa; Maritato, Nicholas; Moawad, Michael; Singh, Rajwinder; Tucker, Clara; Vaughan, Daniel

    2018-04-01

    Solid waste management struggles with the sustainable disposal of used tires. One solution involves shredding used tires into crumb rubber and using the material as infill for artificial turf. However, crumb rubber contains hydrocarbons, organic compounds, and heavy metals, and it travels into the environment. Earthworms living in soil contaminated with virgin crumb rubber gained 14% less body weight than did earthworms living in uncontaminated soil, but the impact of aged crumb rubber on the earthworms is unknown. Since many athletic fields contain aged crumb rubber, we compared the body weight, survivorship, and longevity in heat and light stress for earthworms living in clean topsoil to those living in topsoil contaminated with aged crumb rubber. We also characterized levels of metals, nutrients, and micronutrients of both soil treatments and compared those to published values for soil contaminated with virgin crumb rubber. Consistent with earlier research, we found that contaminated soil did not inhibit microbial respiration rates. Aged crumb rubber, like new crumb rubber, had high levels of zinc. However, while exposure to aged crumb rubber did not reduce earthworm body weight as did exposure to new crumb rubber, exposure to aged crumb rubber reduced earthworm survival time during a stress test by a statistically significant 38 min (16.2%) relative to the survival time for worms that had lived in clean soil. Aged crumb rubber and new crumb rubber appear to pose similar toxic risks to earthworms. This study suggests an environmental cost associated with the current tire-recycling solution.

  11. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  12. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  13. Evaluating time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate marker for survival from an information theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Ariel; Molenberghs, Geert

    2008-10-01

    The last two decades have seen a lot of development in the area of surrogate marker validation. One of these approaches places the evaluation in a meta-analytic framework, leading to definitions in terms of trial- and individual-level association. A drawback of this methodology is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Using information theory, Alonso et al. proposed a unified framework, leading to a new definition of surrogacy, which offers interpretational advantages and is applicable in a wide range of situations. In this work, we illustrate how this information-theoretic approach can be used to evaluate surrogacy when both endpoints are of a time-to-event type. Two meta-analyses, in early and advanced colon cancer, respectively, are then used to evaluate the performance of time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate for overall survival.

  14. Accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J.; Monty, B.S.; Liparulo, N.J.; Desaedeleer, G.

    1989-01-01

    The foundation of the framework for a Severe Accident Management Program is the contained in the Probabilistic Safety Study (PSS) or the Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE) for a specific plant. The development of a Severe Accident Management Program at a plant is based on the use of the information, in conjunction with other applicable information. A Severe Accident Management Program must address both accident prevention and accident mitigation. The overall Severe Accident Management framework must address these two facets, as a living program in terms of gathering the evaluating information, the readiness to respond to an event. Significant international experience in the development of severe accident management programs exist which should provide some direction for the development of Severe Accident Management in the U.S. This paper reports that the two most important elements of a Severe Accident Management Program are the Emergency Consultation process and the standards for measuring the effectiveness of individual Severe Accident Management Programs at utilities

  15. Preoperative diffusion-weighted imaging of single brain metastases correlates with patient survival times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sophie Berghoff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: MRI-based diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI visualizes the local differences in water diffusion in vivo. The prognostic value of DWI signal intensities on the source images and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC maps respectively has not yet been studied in brain metastases (BM. METHODS: We included into this retrospective analysis all patients operated for single BM at our institution between 2002 and 2010, in whom presurgical DWI and BM tissue samples were available. We recorded relevant clinical data, assessed DWI signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC values and performed histopathological analysis of BM tissues. Statistical analyses including uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: 65 patients (34 female, 31 male with a median overall survival time (OS of 15 months (range 0-99 months were available for this study. 19 (29.2% patients presented with hyper-, 3 (4.6% with iso-, and 43 (66.2% with hypointense DWI. ADCmean values could be determined in 32 (49.2% patients, ranged from 456.4 to 1691.8*10⁻⁶ mm²/s (median 969.5 and showed a highly significant correlation with DWI signal intensity. DWI hyperintensity correlated significantly with high amount of interstitial reticulin deposition. In univariate analysis, patients with hyperintense DWI (5 months and low ADCmean values (7 months had significantly worse OS than patients with iso/hypointense DWI (16 months and high ADCmean values (30 months, respectively. In multivariate survival analysis, high ADCmean values retained independent statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative DWI findings strongly and independently correlate with OS in patients operated for single BM and are related to interstitial fibrosis. Inclusion of DWI parameters into established risk stratification scores for BM patients should be considered.

  16. Unavoidable Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Grady, Mark F.

    2009-01-01

    In negligence law, "unavoidable accident" is the risk that remains when an actor has used due care. The counterpart of unavoidable accident is "negligent harm." Negligence law makes parties immune for unavoidable accident even when they have used less than due care. Courts have developed a number of methods by which they "sort" accidents to unavoidable accident or to negligent harm, holding parties liable only for the latter. These sorting techniques are interesting in their own right and als...

  17. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  18. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  19. Survival with Three-Times Weekly In-Center Nocturnal Versus Conventional Hemodialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianglin; Suri, Rita S.; Nesrallah, Gihad; Lindsay, Robert; Garg, Amit X.; Lester, Keith; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2012-01-01

    Whether the duration of hemodialysis treatments improves outcomes remains controversial. Here, we evaluated survival and clinical changes associated with converting from conventional hemodialysis (mean=3.75 h/treatment) to in-center nocturnal hemodialysis (mean=7.85 h/treatment). All 959 consecutive patients who initiated nocturnal hemodialysis for the first time in 77 Fresenius Medical Care facilities during 2006 and 2007 were eligible. We used Cox models to compare risk for mortality during 2 years of follow-up in a 1:3 propensity score–matched cohort of 746 nocturnal and 2062 control patients on conventional hemodialysis. Two-year mortality was 19% among nocturnal hemodialysis patients compared with 27% among conventional patients. Nocturnal hemodialysis associated with a 25% reduction in the risk for death after adjustment for age, body mass index, and dialysis vintage (hazard ratio=0.75, 95% confidence interval=0.61–0.91, P=0.004). With respect to clinical features, interdialytic weight gain, albumin, hemoglobin, dialysis dose, and calcium increased on nocturnal therapy, whereas postdialysis weight, predialysis systolic blood pressure, ultrafiltration rate, phosphorus, and white blood cell count declined (all P<0.001). In summary, notwithstanding the possibility of residual selection bias, conversion to treatment with nocturnal hemodialysis associates with favorable clinical features, laboratory biomarkers, and improved survival compared with propensity score–matched controls. The potential impact of extended treatment time on clinical outcomes while maintaining a three times per week hemodialysis schedule requires evaluation in future clinical trials. PMID:22362905

  20. Impact of latency time on survival for adolescents and young adults with a second primary malignancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb, Melanie; Rosenberg, Aaron S; Li, Qian; Keegan, Theresa H M

    2018-03-15

    The adverse impact of second primary malignancies (SPMs) on survival is substantial for adolescents and young adults (AYAs; ie, those 15-39 years old). No studies have evaluated whether the latency time between the first malignancy (the primary malignancy [PM]) and the SPM affects cancer-specific survival (CSS). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for 13 regions from 1992 to 2008 was used to ascertain whether the latency time (1-5 vs ≥ 6 years) to the development of an SPM affected the CSS and overall survival with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYAs with common SPMs. The majority of 1515 AYAs with an SPM had their PM diagnosed between the ages of 26 and 39 years (74.2%) and an SPM diagnosed within 1 to 5 years (72.9%) of the PM's diagnosis. Overall, AYAs that developed an SPM 1 to 5 years after the diagnosis (vs ≥ 6 years) had an increased risk of death from cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-3.29) as well as any cause (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.04-3.32). Specifically, for AYAs with an SPM that was leukemia or a colorectal, breast, or central nervous system malignancy, a shorter latency time (1-5 years) from their PM diagnosis was associated with an overall significantly increased risk of death (2.6-fold) from either their PM or that particular SPM. However, latency did not appear to affect the CSS with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYA patients with a lymphoma or sarcoma SPM. Most AYAs who develop an SPM do so within 1 to 5 years of their primary cancer diagnosis, and they have an increased risk of death from cancer in comparison with AYAs with an SPM developing after longer survivorship intervals. Cancer 2018;124:1260-8. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  1. Splenectomy increases the survival time of heart allograft via developing immune tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The spleen is an active lymphoid organ. The effect of splenectomy on the immune response remains unclear. This study investigated whether splenectomy can induce immune tolerance and has a beneficial role in cardiac allograft. Methods Wistar rats were used for heart donors. The Sprague–Dawley (SD) rats designated as the recipients of heart transplantation (HT) were randomly assigned into four groups: sham, splenectomy, HT, splenectomy + HT. The survival of transplanted hearts was assessed by daily checking of abdominal palpation. At various time points after transplantation, the transplanted hearts were collected and histologically examined; the level of CD4+CD25+ T regulatory lymphocytes (Tregs) and rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (annexin-v+ PI+ cells) in the blood were analyzed by using flow cytometric method. Results 1) Splenectomy significantly prolonged the mean survival time of heart allografts (7 ± 1.1 days and 27 ± 1.5 days for HT and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 12-14/group, HT vs. splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy delayed pathological changes (inflammatory cell infiltration, myocardial damage) of the transplanted hearts in splenectomy + HT rats; 3) The level of CD4+CD25+ Tregs in the blood of splenectomized rats was significantly increased within 7 days (2.4 ± 0.5%, 4.9 ± 1.3% and 5.3 ± 1.0% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p splenectomy surgery and gradually decreased to baseline level; 4) Splenectomy increased the rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (day 7: 0.3 ± 0.05%, 3.9 ± 0.9% and 4.1 ± 0.9% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy inhibits the development of pathology and prolongs the survival time of cardiac allograft. The responsible mechanism is associated with induction of immune

  2. Use of thermal time constant concept in the analysis of reactivity induced accidents with feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narain, R.

    1981-01-01

    A simple heat transfer model based on the thermal time constant concept which leads to significant reduction in fuel temperature computing time and gives a physical insight of the phenomena is presented. The fuel temperatures can be used to estimate the reactivity feedback using the measured or calculated Doppler coefficients. (E.G.) [pt

  3. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  4. Survival time of bacteria on different plastics by application of ultraviolet rays and desinfectants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glueck, S.

    1975-01-01

    The survival times of four sorts of germs were studied (Staph. albus, Staph. aureus, E.coli and Clebsiella) on 28 different plastic surfaces under different ambient conditions, (darkness, daylight, UV-radiation) and after preceding disinfection of the surfaces. For these studies, a formaldehydecontaining, phenolic, and a surface-active preparation were used. No essential differences in the survival times of the 4 types of germs tested were found. Besides the chemical basic structure additional substances were found to play a substantial role for the autobactericides. The dark values which could help to obtain findings about auto-bactericides did not show significant correspondence within the groups of the plastics. Only for a few materials a safe auto-bactericide could be found (alkyd lake, phenol resin). In the case of some other substances (some preparations made of PVC, polystyrene, polyacetal) an effect on the germs could be seen which was, at least totally seen, unfavourable, if all test conditions (darkness, daylight, UV-radiation) are viewed as a total. As comparative values on glass had shown a lower lethal rate of the germs, a certain auto-bactericide is likely to exist in all plastics tested. A considerable antibacterial effect of daylight was found, even with low daylight quotients and clased windows. UV-rays also diminished the number of germs on the plastic surfaces considerably, even with only indirect irradiation. Delayed effects of desinfecting agents partially depend on the surface material. Thus the phenolic agent showed strong delayed effects on the acryl glas, polyethylene, phenol resin, polycarbonate, but less on PVC. Phormaldehyde showed a good long-term effect only on phenol resin. (orig.) [de

  5. PSO-Based Robot Path Planning for Multisurvivor Rescue in Limited Survival Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Geng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.

  6. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Niragire

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  7. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niragire, François; Achia, Thomas N O; Lyambabaje, Alexandre; Ntaganira, Joseph

    2017-05-11

    Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  8. Preventing accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-08-01

    As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

  9. Timing of chemotherapy and survival in patients with resectable gastric adenocarcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrington, Amanda K; Nelson, Rebecca; Patel, Supriya S; Luu, Carrie; Ko, Michelle; Garcia-Aguilar, Julio; Kim, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the timing of chemotherapy in gastric cancer by comparing survival outcomes in treatment groups. METHODS: Patients with surgically resected gastric adenocarcinoma from 1988 to 2006 were identified from the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. To evaluate the population most likely to receive and/or benefit from adjunct chemotherapy, inclusion criteria consisted of Stage II or III gastric cancer patients > 18 years of age who underwent curative-intent surgical resection. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the receipt of chemotherapy: (1) no chemotherapy; (2) preoperative chemotherapy; or (3) postoperative chemotherapy. Clinical and pathologic characteristics were compared across the different treatment arms. RESULTS: Of 1518 patients with surgically resected gastric cancer, 327 (21.5%) received perioperative chemotherapy. The majority of these 327 patients were male (68%) with a mean age of 61.5 years; and they were significantly younger than non-chemotherapy patients (mean age, 70.7; P advanced gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: This study supports the implementation of a randomized trial comparing the timing of perioperative therapy in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer. PMID:24392183

  10. Sipa, a real time system for post-accident training and studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltier, J.; Poizat, F.

    1990-06-01

    The SIPA simulator, now under development, is designed to study in real time PWR behaviour under normal and accidental conditions. The commissioning of the version for EDF, called SIPA 1, and of the CEA version called SIPA 2 is planned in 1991. Its objectives are Shift Safety Advisors training, studies and safety analysis. Its software workshop will allow flexibility and portability. Most of the models are developed using code generators. The primary circuit is described by CATHARE-SIMU, a speeded-up version of the French advanced code CATHARE. It will be completed by about 35 connected systems developed by THOMSON-CSF and SEMA-GROUP. The computational power will be supplied by a CRAY processor that will be linked to a training network and an engineering network constituted of some independent workstations

  11. 30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zablotska, Lydia B

    2016-06-01

    It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

  12. The Health Rationale for Family Planning: Timing of Births and Child Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations, New York, NY. Population Div.

    Among the most influential findings from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) were those linking fertility patterns to child survival, in particular the findings concerning the high infant and child mortality for children born after a short birth interval. This study examined the relations between fertility and child survival based on more recent data…

  13. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (Ptime. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  14. Survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badwe, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

  15. Accident management for severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.; Pratt, W.T.; Lehner, J.; Leonard, M.; Disalvo, R.; Sheron, B.

    1988-01-01

    The management of severe accidents in light water reactors is receiving much attention in several countries. The reduction of risk by measures and/or actions that would affect the behavior of a severe accident is discussed. The research program that is being conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission focuses on both in-vessel accident management and containment and release accident management. The key issues and approaches taken in this program are summarized. 6 refs

  16. Radiological and geophysical changes around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant since the accident to the present time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolotkov, Gennady

    2013-04-01

    Detailed analysis of accidental released of radioactive material from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has shown that long-lived radionuclides add considerable support for intensity of ion formation. Based on the results of airborne monitoring by MEXT and DOE (total surface deposition of Cs134 and Cs137 inside 80 km zone of Fukushima Daiichi NPP) it has been calculated the spatial distribution of the intensity of ion formation and atmospheric electric conductivity. The evidence of plutonium in the Fukushima radioactive trace allows calculates the concentration of small, intermediate and large ions. The results show the excess of these parameters by several orders of magnitude since the accident to the present time. For example the concentration of small air ion in the area of Chernobyl is 7±2?102 cm-3, the Fukushima Daiichi NPP ones is 1.3?106 cm-3. The difference in the atmospheric bipolar electric conductivity is about 24 fS/m between the Chernobyl and the Fukushima Daiichi ones. The evaluation technique was used after Chernobyl disaster allows to make an analysis of ecological, hygiene requirements and other problems into the troposphere and on the soil intensity of ion formation in the area of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The standard ion air differ by four orders of magnitude in the case for Fukushima Daiichi ones. Comparative study of the radiophysical characteristics of the atmosphere with the analogous ones in Chernobyl and application of identification of various types of the air pollution is discussed.

  17. The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bie

    Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

  18. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

  19. Effect of 153Sm-EDTMP on survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Wei; Zheng Zongyuan; Xu Guangpu

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect on survival of Samarium-153-ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphonate (153Sm-EDTMP) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and multiple bone metastases. Methods: From 1993 to 1999, 160 patients (127 men, 33 women; median age 35 years) presented with NPC and multiple bone metastases. Of these, 40 patients had undergone chemotherapy, and 72 palliative radiotherapy. Patients were randomly divided into four groups: Group 1 (N = 20) received analgesics (control); Groups 2, 3 and 4 (N = 80, 40, and 20, respectively) received one, two or three courses, respectively, of 153Sm-EDTMP (77.7 MBq/kg/course; course interval, 4 wk). Results: Eight patients died of non-cancer-related causes, and 24 were lost to follow-up. The median survival time for Group 1 (7.8 months) was significantly less (p < 0.05) than that of Groups 2, 3 and 4 (11.6, 13.4 and 12.8 months, respectively). Patients given 153Sm-EDTMP who had had revious external radiation survived longer (p < 0.05) than those in the other treatment groups. Conclusions: Internal radiotherapy with 153Sm-EDTMP can extend survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases; when combined with external radiotherapy in appropriate patients, its effect on survival time is enhanced.. (authors)

  20. Correlation between the CT manifestations and post-operative survival time in patients with thymic epithelial tumor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Juan; Tan Ye; Wang Xiangyang; Du Jun; Pan Jishu; Wei Jiahu

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To describe the CT manifestations of thymic epithelial tumor and explore the correlation between CT findings and post-operative tumor-related survival time. Methods: Ninety-one patients who underwent CT scan before operation were reviewed retrospectively. All cases had operation and were classified according to the WHO classification. The size, contour, shape, density and enhancement of the tumors on CT were assessed. Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy, great vessel invasion, metastasis to the lung or plural, myasthenia gravis (MG) were also analyzed. The survival rate was obtained using, the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox model was applied to determine the factors affecting the tumor-related survivals. Chi square test was used to analyze the relationship between CT findings and WHO classification. Results: Two patients were excluded because of dying of myocardial infarction and colon cancer. The total 5-year survival rate was 84.3% (n=75). Eighty-nine patients had total 91 tumors. Tumors with diameter larger than 5 cm, lobular contour, heterogenous density, and presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis were adverse factors which could significantly affect the survival time. Five-year survival rates of these factors were 72.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, 73.8%, 30.0%, and 68.8%, respectively. Presence of MG was a favorable factor which also significantly affected the survival time (P 0.05). The result of the Cox multivariate analysis was consistent with that of the Log-rank test. For different WHO classification, there were significant different among the size or contour of the tumors, presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis (χ 2 value were 6.598, 5.737, 18.307, 8.465, and 15.608, respectively P<0.05). Conclusions: CT findings may be served as predictors of clinical prognosis of the thymic epithelial tumors. Adverse factors for survival time are the size of the tumors and presence of

  1. Differences in compliance with Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommendations according to hospital entrance time: day versus night.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Mónica; Ribeiro, Orquídea; Aragão, Irene; Costa-Pereira, Altamiro; Cardoso, Teresa

    2013-04-23

    Higher compliance with Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) recommendations has been associated with lower mortality. The authors evaluate differences in compliance with SSC 6-hour bundle according to hospital entrance time (day versus night) and its impact on hospital mortality. Prospective cohort study of all patients with community-acquired severe sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit of a large university tertiary care hospital, over 3.5 years with a follow-up until hospital discharge. Time to compliance with each recommendation of the SSC 6-hour bundle was calculated according to hospital entrance period: day (08:30 to 20:30) versus night (20:30 to 08:30). For the same periods, clinical staff composition and the number of patients attending the emergency department (ED) was also recorded. In this period 300 consecutive patients were included. Compliance rate was (night vs. day): serum lactate measurement 57% vs. 49% (P = 0.171), blood cultures drawn 59% vs. 37% (P 8 mmHg 45% vs. 29% (P = 0.021), and central venous oxygen saturation (SvcO₂) >70%, 7% vs. 2% (P = 0.082); fluids were administered in all patients with hypotension in both periods and vasopressors were administered in patients with hypotension not responsive to fluids in 100% vs. 99%. Time to get specific actions done was also different (night vs. day): serum lactate measurement (4.5 vs. 7 h, P = 0.018), blood cultures drawn (4 vs. 8 h, P night with a higher proportion of less differentiated doctors. The number of patients attending the Emergency Department was lower overnight. Hospital mortality rate was 34% in patients entering in the night period vs. 40% in those entering during the day (P = 0.281). Compliance with SSC recommendations was higher at night. A possible explanation might be the increased nurse to patient ratio in that period. Adjustment of the clinical team composition to the patients' demand is needed to increase compliance and improve prognosis.

  2. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaikh, Talha; Handorf, Elizabeth A.; Murphy, Colin T.; Mehra, Ranee; Ridge, John A.; Galloway, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as 49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ"2 tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  3. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats.

  4. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats

  5. Progression-free survival/time to progression as a potential surrogate for overall survival in HR+, HER2– metastatic breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forsythe A

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Anna Forsythe,1 David Chandiwana,2 Janina Barth,3 Marroon Thabane,4 Johan Baeck,2 Gabriel Tremblay1 1Purple Squirrel Economics, New York, NY, 2Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 3Novartis Pharma GmbH, Nuremberg, Germany; 4Novartis Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Dorval, QC, Canada Background: Several recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs in hormone receptor-positive (HR+, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2– metastatic breast cancer (MBC have demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS; however, few have reported improvement in overall survival (OS. The surrogacy of PFS or time to progression (TTP for OS has not been formally investigated in HR+, HER2– MBC.Methods: A systematic literature review of RCTs in HR+, HER2– MBC was conducted to identify studies that reported both median PFS/TTP and OS. The correlation between PFS/TTP and OS was evaluated using Pearson’s product–moment correlation and Spearman’s rank correlation. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression (LSR was used to model incremental OS months as a function of incremental PFS/TTP months. An exploratory analysis investigated the impact of three covariates (chemotherapy vs hormonal/targeted therapy, PFS vs TTP, and first-line therapy vs second-line therapy or greater on OS prediction. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum incremental PFS/TTP months required to predict OS benefit (surrogate threshold effect [STE].Results: Forty studies were identified. There was a statistically significant correlation between median PFS/TTP and OS (Pearson =0.741, P=0.000; Spearman =0.650, P=0.000. These results proved consistent for chemotherapy and hormonal/targeted therapy. Univariate LSR analysis yielded an R2 of 0.354 with 1 incremental PFS/TTP month corresponding to 1.13 incremental OS months

  6. The impact of chemotherapy and its timing on survival in malignant peritoneal mesothelioma treated with complete debulking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naffouje, Samer A; Tulla, Kiara A; Salti, George I

    2018-04-12

    The current standard of treatment for malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPM) is cytoreductive surgery when the disease distribution is favorable. The role of chemotherapy, as an adjunct to surgery, remains unclear. The national database of mesothelioma was used to identify MPM patients who were treated with curative intent. Patients were divided into treatment groups: (1) chemotherapy only, (2) surgery only, (3) neoadjuvant chemotherapy + surgery, and (4) surgery + adjuvant chemotherapy. A negative control group of patients who did not receive any treatment was added (group 0). Totally, 1740 patients were included. Mean age was 63.04 ± 14.58 and 60.7% were males. The patients' distribution into the treatment groups was 604, 684, 169, 55, and 228 patients in groups 0-4, respectively, with a median survival of 3.61 ± 0.37, 11.10 ± 0.73, 57.41 ± 11.91, 52.30 ± 7.20, and 55.00 ± 9.19 months. The addition of chemotherapy, in any setting, to surgery provided an improved survival at 1 year (p = 0.006). This survival benefit ceased at the 2-, 3-, and 5-year checkpoints. The multivariate analysis identified age, sarcomatoid/biphasic histologies, nodal and distant metastasis, and offering no treatment or chemotherapy only as poor prognostic factors for overall survival. No difference in overall survival was noted with the addition of chemotherapy to complete debulking regardless of the timing. Complete debulking remains the standard treatment for MPM. The addition of systemic chemotherapy provides a short-term survival improvement at 1 year only and was similar whether given in the neoadjuvant or adjuvant setting. Nevertheless, it did not add a survival benefit beyond the 1-year time point.

  7. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  8. Nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  9. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHOI, Wan-Suk; KIM, Bo-Kyung; KIM, Ki-Do; MOON, Ok-Kon; YEUM, Dong-Moon

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction. The Korea Workers’ Compensation & Welfare Service conducted the first nationwide panel survey on occupational health and safety insurance in 2013–2014 through a stratified systematic sampling on 2,000 industrial accident workers who completed convalescence. Based on the dataset, our study analyzed 1,832 workers experiencing an industrial accident after excluding 168 disease patients. For the research model analysis, a four-stage hierarchical regression analysis technique was applied using the SPSS regression analysis Macro program of PROCESS Procedure. To test mediated indirect effects of the self-esteem and sleeping time, the bootstrapping technique was applied. Life satisfaction, self-esteem and sleeping time decreased as the number of painful stimuli increased. Life satisfaction decreased as self-esteem and sleeping time decreased. On balance, the partial mediation model confirmed that self-esteem and sleeping time both mediate the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction. PMID:27021061

  10. Impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among Korean industrial accident workers completing convalescence: dual mediating effects of self-esteem and sleeping time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Kim, Bo-Kyung; Kim, Ki-Do; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2016-10-08

    This study examined the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction among workers who experienced an industrial accident and investigated how self-esteem and sleeping time affected life satisfaction. The Korea Workers' Compensation & Welfare Service conducted the first nationwide panel survey on occupational health and safety insurance in 2013-2014 through a stratified systematic sampling on 2,000 industrial accident workers who completed convalescence. Based on the dataset, our study analyzed 1,832 workers experiencing an industrial accident after excluding 168 disease patients. For the research model analysis, a four-stage hierarchical regression analysis technique was applied using the SPSS regression analysis Macro program of PROCESS Procedure. To test mediated indirect effects of the self-esteem and sleeping time, the bootstrapping technique was applied. Life satisfaction, self-esteem and sleeping time decreased as the number of painful stimuli increased. Life satisfaction decreased as self-esteem and sleeping time decreased. On balance, the partial mediation model confirmed that self-esteem and sleeping time both mediate the impact of the number of painful stimuli on life satisfaction.

  11. Time to Thrive, Not Just Survive: Accumulating Advantage for Women in Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Debra

    2005-04-01

    Our departments of science, technology, mathematics, and engineering (STEM) need more women as faculty, and not only to show their undergraduates that a career in academia is a viable path. Their absence warns us that an unhealthy environment exists: unhealthy to those scientists who want fulfilling lives beyond academe and unhealthy to those women, who once they demonstrate productivity, scholarship, and mentorship, still reap less respect, space, salary, funding, and awards than their male colleagues. The recalcitrance of too many of our research universities toward diversifying their faculty is a national disgrace in that these universities covet a diversified student body, but do not reflect that pool of talent onto their faculty. Similar difficulties are apparent among the staff of National and Federal laboratories. Self-reform is not getting it done, and is especially frustrating in light of the historic opportunity to change the demographics as scientists and engineers hired in the 1960s retire. Is it time to apply the logic of Title IX--the loss of Federal funds--for the entrenched inability to increase the number of women represented on STEM faculties? Such a threat may be the impetus necessary for university administrators to create departmental environments that women are willing to call home. The July 2004 release of the GAO report on Women's Participation in the Sciences (which also surveyed DOE facilities) reminded those Federal agencies that fund scientific research that Title IX is the law and that these agencies must begin Title IX assessments of compliance in the STEM departments and institutions they fund. It is past time that women thrive, not just survive in their career homes. Using the mechanistic philosophy of Title IX--denial of resources to recalacitrant departments and laboratories--may be the start of a truly inclusive scientific enterprise in the United States. We must accept this opportunity to redirect the nature of the research

  12. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures after hip fracture. Therefore, all

  13. Physical working ability in persons who survived acute radiation sickness due to Chernobyl accident (the data of 16-year follow-up)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalenko, O.M.; Byilij, D.O.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable reduction in physical working ability (PWA) in persons who survived acute radiation sickness in the early period is chiefly caused by negative influence of ionizing radiation and is not determined by the degree of severity of bone-marrow syndrome. Further restoration of PWA does not occur which can be explained by development of neurosomatic pathology against a background of age-related changes in the organs and systems of the victims

  14. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  15. KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. Results On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. Conclusions We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups. PMID:22723912

  16. Impact of Sodium Chloride and Heat on Survival Time of Linguatula Serrata Nymphs in vitro: An Experimental Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hajimohammadi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Linguatula serrata is a zoonotic parasite, belonging to the class Pentastomida. The major aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of sodium chloride (NaCl and heat on survival time of Linguatula serrata nymphs. Materials & Methods: Thirty nymphs (10 in triplicate were separately transferred to plastic tubes, containing different concentrations of NaCl solution (2%, 5% and 10%. Meanwhile, 30 nymphs in tubes containing Phosphate Buffer Saline (PBS were separately treated by +50°C, +60°C and +72°C. As control group, thirty nymphs were stored in PBS at +4°C. The effects of different conditions on survival time of the nymphs were evaluated by observing their motility in different periods of time. Results: The survival time of the nymphs stored in 10% NaCl solution was too short and all of them were dead after 3 hours. But the other ones maintained in 2% NaCl solution were significantly more resistant (p<0.05 and were survived for 2 days. All the nymphs pertaining to each +60°C and +72°C treatments were found dead after first 5-minute storage interval; the nymphs stored at +50°C died totally after 20 minutes. The nymphs maintained in PBS at +4°C (control group showed the longest survival time (p<0.05; all of them were alive until day 4 and the last ones died on day 34. Conclusion: It is concluded that salting and heating have significant parasiticidal effects on L. serrata nymphs and could be used as disinfecting methods in processing of meat products especially liver. However, refrigeration at +4°C increases the resistance of the nymphs in meat products and therefore might endanger the food safety.

  17. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  18. Real-time management (RTM) by cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) for risk analysis of Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo Sung; Woo, Tae Ho; The Cyber Univ. of Korea, Seoul

    2017-01-01

    The earthquake and tsunami induced accident of nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima disaster is investigated by the real-time management (RTM) method. This non-linear logic of the safety management is applied to enhance the methodological confidence in the NPP reliability. The case study of the earthquake is modeled for the fast reaction characteristics of the RTM. The system dynamics (SD) modeling simulations and cloud computing are applied for the RTM method where the real time simulation has the fast and effective communication for the accident remediation and prevention. Current tablet computing system can improve the safety standard of the NPP. Finally, the procedure of the cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) modeling is constructed.

  19. Updating long-range transport model predictions using real-time monitoring data in case of nuclear accidents with release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, Frank; Tassone, Caterina; Grippa, Gianni; Zarimpas, Nicolas; Graziani, Giovanni

    1991-01-01

    A procedure is developed to reduce the uncertainties of long-range transport model predictions, in case of a large scale nuclear accident. It is based on the availability in 'real time' of the concentrations of airborne radioactive aerosols from automatic on-line monitors, which are presently being installed throughout Europe. Essentially, the procedure consists of: (1) constructing new (area) source terms from the measured field data as they become available; and (2) restart the prediction with these sources, rather than with the original (point) source. The procedure is applied to the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that the procedure is feasible and might result in an improvement of the prediction of the location of the cloud by several hundreds of kilometers and the actual levels with an order of magnitude. The weak point is the treatment of the vertical structure and transport of the cloud, which can only be solved when 'real-time' upper air observations are also available. (author)

  20. Real-time management (RTM) by cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) for risk analysis of Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Hyo Sung [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; Woo, Tae Ho [Yonsei Univ., Wonju Gangwon-do (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Radiation Convergence Engineering; The Cyber Univ. of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical and Control Engineering

    2017-03-15

    The earthquake and tsunami induced accident of nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima disaster is investigated by the real-time management (RTM) method. This non-linear logic of the safety management is applied to enhance the methodological confidence in the NPP reliability. The case study of the earthquake is modeled for the fast reaction characteristics of the RTM. The system dynamics (SD) modeling simulations and cloud computing are applied for the RTM method where the real time simulation has the fast and effective communication for the accident remediation and prevention. Current tablet computing system can improve the safety standard of the NPP. Finally, the procedure of the cloud computing system dynamics (CCSD) modeling is constructed.

  1. Radiological aspects of nuclear accident scenarios. Volume 1 real-time emergency response systems post-Chernobyl action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinnaeve, J.

    1991-01-01

    In the event of a nuclear accident, there is a need for a rapid assessment of the resulting levels of environmental contamination in order to facilitate decisions on possible countermeasures. Volume 1 of this report covers the development of numerical models, in the form of software packages, to simulate atmospheric transport and deposition over various distances, and techniques for estimation of the resulting doses

  2. Correlation between the genetic diversity of nosocomial pathogens and their survival time in intensive care units.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gastmeier, P; Schwab, F; Bärwolff, S; Rüden, H; Grundmann, Hajo

    2006-01-01

    Bacteria differ in their ability to survive in the hospital environment outside the human host. Species remaining viable and infectious have a higher chance of being transmitted, giving them a fitness advantage in hospitals. This differential fitness could be expected to alter the genetic population

  3. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the w...

  4. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaikh, Talha [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Handorf, Elizabeth A. [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Murphy, Colin T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mehra, Ranee [Department of Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ridge, John A. [Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Galloway, Thomas J., E-mail: Thomas.Galloway@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <47 days, and standard RTT was defined as 47 to 56 days. In the postoperative setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ{sup 2} tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  5. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  6. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  7. Radiological accidents balance in medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This work deals with the radiological accidents in medicine. In medicine, the radiation accidents on medical personnel and patients can be the result of over dosage and bad focusing of radiotherapy sealed sources. Sometimes, the accidents, if they are unknown during a time enough for the source to be spread and to expose a lot of persons (in the case of source dismantling for instance) can take considerable dimensions. Others accidents can come from bad handling of linear accelerators and from radionuclide kinetics in some therapies. Some examples of accidents are given. (O.L.). 11 refs

  8. Hyperthermic survival of Chinese hamster ovary cells as a function of cellular population density at the time of plating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highfield, D.P.; Holahan, E.V.; Holahan, P.K.; Dewey, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The survival of synchronous G 1 or asynchronous Chinese hamster ovary cells in vitro to heat treatment may depend on the cellular population density at the time of heating and/or as the cells are cultured after heating. The addition of lethally irradiated feeder cells may increase survival at 10 -3 by as much as 10- to 100-fold for a variety of conditions when cells are heated either in suspension culture or as monolayers with or without trypsinization. The protective effect associated with feeder cells appears to be associated with close cell-to-cell proximity. However, when cells are heated without trypsinization about 24 hr or later after plating, when adaptation to monolayer has occurred, the protective effect is reduced; i.e., addition of feeder cells enhances survival much less, for example, about 2- to 3-fold at 10 -2 -10 -3 survival. Also, the survival of a cell to heat is independent of whether the neighboring cell in a microcolony is destined to live or die. Finally, if protective effects associated with cell density do occur and are not controlled, serious artifacts can result as the interaction of heat and radiation is studied; for example, survival curves can be moved upward, and thus changed in shape as the number of cells plated is increased with an increase in the hyperthermic treatment or radiation dose following hyperthermia. Therefore, to understand mechanisms and to obtain information relevant to populations of cells in close proximity, such as those in vivo, these cellular population density effects should be considered and understood

  9. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  10. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Hudson

    Full Text Available The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period, PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd rather than individual level.

  11. Normal accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perrow, C.

    1989-01-01

    The author has chosen numerous concrete examples to illustrate the hazardousness inherent in high-risk technologies. Starting with the TMI reactor accident in 1979, he shows that it is not only the nuclear energy sector that bears the risk of 'normal accidents', but also quite a number of other technologies and industrial sectors, or research fields. The author refers to the petrochemical industry, shipping, air traffic, large dams, mining activities, and genetic engineering, showing that due to the complexity of the systems and their manifold, rapidly interacting processes, accidents happen that cannot be thoroughly calculated, and hence are unavoidable. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Rigorous bounds on survival times in circular accelerators and efficient computation of fringe-field transfer maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffstaetter, G.H.

    1994-12-01

    Analyzing stability of particle motion in storage rings contributes to the general field of stability analysis in weakly nonlinear motion. A method which we call pseudo invariant estimation (PIE) is used to compute lower bounds on the survival time in circular accelerators. The pseudeo invariants needed for this approach are computed via nonlinear perturbative normal form theory and the required global maxima of the highly complicated multivariate functions could only be rigorously bound with an extension of interval arithmetic. The bounds on the survival times are large enough to the relevant; the same is true for the lower bounds on dynamical aperatures, which can be computed. The PIE method can lead to novel design criteria with the objective of maximizing the survival time. A major effort in the direction of rigourous predictions only makes sense if accurate models of accelerators are available. Fringe fields often have a significant influence on optical properties, but the computation of fringe-field maps by DA based integration is slower by several orders of magnitude than DA evaluation of the propagator for main-field maps. A novel computation of fringe-field effects called symplectic scaling (SYSCA) is introduced. It exploits the advantages of Lie transformations, generating functions, and scaling properties and is extremely accurate. The computation of fringe-field maps is typically made nearly two orders of magnitude faster. (orig.)

  13. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body. gamma. irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-11-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body ..gamma.. irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice.

  14. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body γ irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-01-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body γ irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice

  15. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  16. Radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of radiation accidents over a 50 year period shows that simple cases, where the initiating events were immediately recognised, the source identified and under control, the medical input confined to current handling, were exceptional. In many cases, the accidents were only diagnosed when some injuries presented by the victims suggested the radiological nature of the cause. After large-scale accidents, the situation becomes more complicated, either because of management or medical problems, or both. The review of selected accidents which resulted in severe consequences shows that most of them could have been avoided; lack of regulations, contempt for rules, human failure and insufficient training have been identified as frequent initiating parameters. In addition, the situation was worsened because of unpreparedness, insufficient planning, unadapted resources, and underestimation of psychosociological aspects. (author)

  17. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.

  18. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  19. Radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poplavskij, K.K.; Smorodintseva, G.I.

    1978-01-01

    On the basis of a critical analysis of the available data on causes and consequences of radiation accidents (RA), a classification of RA by severity (five groups of accidents) according to biomedical consequences and categories of exposed personnel is proposed. A RA is defined and its main characteristics are described. Methods of RA prevention are proposed, as is a plan of specific measures to deal with RA in accordance with the proposed classification

  20. The comparison of proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models in analyzing the first birth interval survival data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faruk, Alfensi

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis is a branch of statistics, which is focussed on the analysis of time- to-event data. In multivariate survival analysis, the proportional hazards (PH) is the most popular model in order to analyze the effects of several covariates on the survival time. However, the assumption of constant hazards in PH model is not always satisfied by the data. The violation of the PH assumption leads to the misinterpretation of the estimation results and decreasing the power of the related statistical tests. On the other hand, the accelerated failure time (AFT) models do not assume the constant hazards in the survival data as in PH model. The AFT models, moreover, can be used as the alternative to PH model if the constant hazards assumption is violated. The objective of this research was to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the first birth interval (FBI) data in Indonesia. In this work, the discussion was limited to three AFT models which were based on Weibull, exponential, and log-normal distribution. The analysis by using graphical approach and a statistical test showed that the non-proportional hazards exist in the FBI data set. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the log-normal AFT model was the most appropriate model among the other considered models. Results of the best fitted model (log-normal AFT model) showed that the covariates such as women’s educational level, husband’s educational level, contraceptive knowledge, access to mass media, wealth index, and employment status were among factors affecting the FBI in Indonesia.

  1. Unique protein expression signatures of survival time in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma through a pan-cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guangchun; Zhao, Wei; Song, Xiaofeng; Kwok-Shing Ng, Patrick; Karam, Jose A; Jonasch, Eric; Mills, Gordon B; Zhao, Zhongming; Ding, Zhiyong; Jia, Peilin

    2017-10-03

    In 2016, it is estimated that there will be 62,700 new cases of kidney cancer in the United States, and 14,240 patients will die from the disease. Because the incidence of kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), the most common type of kidney cancer, is expected to continue to increase in the US, there is an urgent need to find effective diagnostic biomarkers for KIRC that could help earlier detection of and customized treatment strategies for the disease. Accordingly, in this study we systematically investigated KIRC's prognostic biomarkers for survival using the reverse phase protein array (RPPA) data and the high throughput sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). With comprehensive data available in TCGA, we systematically screened protein expression based survival biomarkers in 10 major cancer types, among which KIRC presented many protein prognostic biomarkers of survival time. This is in agreement with a previous report that expression level changes (mRNAs, microRNA and protein) may have a better performance for prognosis of KIRC. In this study, we also identified 52 prognostic genes for KIRC, many of which are involved in cell-cycle and cancer signaling, as well as 15 tumor-stage-specific prognostic biomarkers. Notably, we found fewer prognostic biomarkers for early-stage than for late-stage KIRC. Four biomarkers (the RPPA protein IDs: FASN, ACC1, Cyclin_B1 and Rad51) were found to be prognostic for survival based on both protein and mRNA expression data. Through pan-cancer screening, we found that many protein biomarkers were prognostic for patients' survival in KIRC. Stage-specific survival biomarkers in KIRC were also identified. Our study indicated that these protein biomarkers might have potential clinical value in terms of predicting survival in KIRC patients and developing individualized treatment strategies. Importantly, we found many biomarkers in KIRC at both the mRNA expression level and the protein expression level. These

  2. Relationships among the cervical mucus urea and acetone, accuracy of insemination timing, and sperm survival in Holstein cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beran, J; Stádník, L; Ducháček, J; Okrouhlá, M; Doležalová, M; Kadlecová, V; Ptáček, M

    2013-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationships among urea and acetone content in cows' cervical mucus (CM), its crystallization type (CT) and sperm survival (SS) after timed AI. Samples of CM were collected from 192 Holstein cows treated by Ovsynch(®) protocol. Analysis of the urea and acetone content for identification of the metabolic status, the arborization test for evaluation of insemination timing and the short-term heat test of SS for assessment of its suitability as a biological matrix were performed. The data set was analyzed by the GLM procedure using SAS(®). The results documented the existence of substantial differences in individual response to the Ovsynch(®) protocol causing insemination of 55.2% cows at an inappropriate time. The urea content was found as a possible indicator of a cow's metabolism and/or of insemination timing, concentrations of less than 500 mg/L corresponded (Pacetone content on SS were determined. The greatest values of SS were detected in cows with an expected response to precisely timed oestrus documented by the corresponding CT. Greater values of urea (>260 mg/L) and acetone (>5mg/L) negatively affected SS as well (P<0.05-0.01). The results confirmed that the accuracy of insemination timing can be affected by the metabolism intensity, just as CM quality directly influences sperm survival. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.; Spartalis, S.H.

    2013-01-01

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  5. Disparities in breast cancer tumor characteristics, treatment, time to treatment, and survival probability among African American and white women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Kevin Chu; Fisher, James L; Lustberg, Maryam B; Gray, Darrell M; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia R; Paskett, Electra D

    2018-01-01

    African American (AA) women have a 42% higher breast cancer death rate compared to white women despite recent advancements in management of the disease. We examined racial differences in clinical and tumor characteristics, treatment and survival in patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2014 at a single institution, the James Cancer Hospital, and who were included in the Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute Cancer Registry in Columbus OH. Statistical analyses included likelihood ratio chi-square tests for differences in proportions, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine associations between race and overall and progression-free survival probabilities. AA women made up 10.2% (469 of 4593) the sample. Average time to onset of treatment after diagnosis was almost two times longer in AA women compared to white women (62.0 days vs 35.5 days, p  triple negative and late stage breast cancer, and were less likely to receive surgery, especially mastectomy and reconstruction following mastectomy. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, grade, and surgery), overall survival probability was significantly associated with race (HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.72). These findings highlight the need for efforts focused on screening and receipt of prompt treatment among AA women diagnosed with breast cancer.

  6. Nutrition management methods effective in increasing weight, survival time and functional status in ALS patients: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, Jaylin; Bottman, Lindsey; Arra, Erin J; Selkirk, Stephen M; Kozlowski, Frances

    2018-02-01

    Poor prognosis and decreased survival time correlate with the nutritional status of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Various studies were reviewed which assessed weight, body mass index (BMI), survival time and ALS functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) in order to determine the best nutrition management methods for this patient population. A systematic review was conducted using CINAHL, Medline, and PubMed, and various search terms in order to determine the most recent clinical trials and observational studies that have been conducted concerning nutrition and ALS. Four articles met criteria to be included in the review. Data were extracted from these articles and were inputted into the Data Extraction Tool (DET) provided by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (AND). Results showed that nutrition supplementation does promote weight stabilisation or weight gain in individuals with ALS. Given the low risk and low cost associated with intervention, early and aggressive nutrition intervention is recommended. This systematic review shows that there is a lack of high quality evidence regarding the efficacy of any dietary interventions for promoting survival in ALS or slowing disease progression; therefore more research is necessary related to effects of nutrition interventions.

  7. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded...

  8. First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

    1997-02-01

    The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

  9. Time-to-collision analysis of pedestrian and pedal-cycle accidents for the development of autonomous emergency braking systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenard, James; Welsh, Ruth; Danton, Russell

    2018-06-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the position of pedestrians and pedal cyclists relative to the striking vehicle in the 3 s before impact. This information is essential for the development of effective autonomous emergency braking systems and relevant test conditions for consumer ratings. The UK RAIDS-OTS study provided 175 pedestrian and 127 pedal-cycle cases based on in-depth, at-scene investigations of a representative sample of accidents in 2000-2010. Pedal cyclists were scattered laterally more widely than pedestrians (90% of cyclists within around ±80° compared to ±20° for pedestrians), however their distance from the striking vehicle in the seconds before impact was no greater (90% of cyclists within 42 m at 3 s compared to 50 m for pedestrians). This data is consistent with a greater involvement of slow moving vehicles in cycle accidents. The implication of the results is that AEB systems for cyclists require almost complete 180° side-to-side vision but do not need a longer distance range than for pedestrians. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  11. [Time of adhesion to the Family Health Strategy protects elderly against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents in Florianópolis, 2003 to 2007].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, André Junqueira; dos Reis, Sandro Sedrez; Paulo, Elizabeth Machado; d'Orsi, Eleonora

    2008-01-01

    The Family Health Strategy (FHS) provides longitudinal follow-up and integrated healthcare. This study evaluated the influence of the time of adhesion to the FHS upon the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the elderly enrolled in the CASSI-Florianópolis. The events were selected because of their high incidence, good notification and association with risk factors the FHS is able to modify. The longer the time of adhesion to the strategy the lower the incidence of these events, demonstrating the effectiveness of the FHS. A historical cohort study was conducted with 674 senior participants (60 or more years), registered between November/2003 and March/2007. The analysis used Student's T test, bivariate and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. The independent risk factors were: age over 80 years, (OR=3,44; CI 95%: 1,8-6,2), diabetes (OR=2,62; CI 95%: 1,4-4,7), hypertension (OR=1,68; CI 95%: 1,0-2,6) and physical inactivity (OR=2,06; CI 95%: 1,2-3,2). The study found no significant association between gender, dislipidemia, obesity, smoking, alcoholism and the studied events. The long time of adhesion to the FHS showed independent protective effect (OR=0,43; CI 95%: 0,2-0,8) after adjustment to earlier covariates, being effective in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the enrolled population of elderly.

  12. Criticality accident:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavese, Susana I.

    2000-01-01

    A criticality accident occurred at 10:35 on September 30, 1999. It occurred in a precipitation tank in a Conversion Test Building at the JCO Tokai Works site in Tokaimura (Tokai Village) in the Ibaraki Prefecture of Japan. STA provisionally rated this accident a 4 on the seven-level, logarithmic International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). The September 30, 1999 criticality accident at the JCO Tokai Works Site in Tokaimura, Japan in described in preliminary, technical detail. Information is based on preliminary presentations to technical groups by Japanese scientists and spokespersons, translations by technical and non-technical persons of technical web postings by various nuclear authorities, and English-language non-technical reports from various news media and nuclear-interest groups. (author)

  13. Waiting Time from Diagnosis to Treatment has no Impact on Survival in Patients with Esophageal Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, E.; Leeftink, Anne Greetje; van Rossum, P.S.N.; Siesling, Sabine; van Hillegersberg, R.; Ruurda, J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Waiting time from diagnosis to treatment has emerged as an important quality indicator in cancer care. This study was designed to determine the impact of waiting time on long-term outcome of patients with esophageal cancer who are treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery or

  14. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  15. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sine Lykkedegn

    Full Text Available Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OHD determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19 or day 22 (E22, placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL, oxygenation (SaO2 at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR. S-25(OHD was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p<0.0001. Compared to the controls, E19 VDL pups had lower birth weight (2.13 vs. 2.29g, p<0.001, lung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002, SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002 as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, p<0.0001. At E22, the VDL-induced pulmonary differences were leveled out, but VDL pups had lower CRL (4.0 vs. 4.5cm, p<0.0001. The phospholipid levels and the surfactant protein mRNA expression did not differ between the dietary groups. In conclusion, Vitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted.

  16. Cernavoda CANDU severe accident evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, G.; Marin, A.

    1997-01-01

    The papers present the activities dedicated to Romania Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant first CANDU Unit severe accident evaluation. This activity is part of more general PSA assessment activities. CANDU specific safety features are calandria moderator and calandria vault water capabilities to remove the residual heat in the case of severe accidents, when the conventional heat sinks are no more available. Severe accidents evaluation, that is a deterministic thermal hydraulic analysis, assesses the accidents progression and gives the milestones when important events take place. This kind of assessment is important to evaluate to recovery time for the reactor operators that can lead to the accident mitigation. The Cernavoda CANDU unit is modeled for the of all heat sinks accident and results compared with the AECL CANDU 600 assessment. (orig.)

  17. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  18. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine B. Nasejje

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  19. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O.; Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  20. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O. [CEA Grenoble, 38 (France). Dept. de Thermohydraulique et de Physique; Creach, V.; Dufeil, Ph. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France); Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F. [Electricite de France, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  1. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  2. Fundamental knowledge of radiation protection necessary for nurses at the present time of restoration from the disaster of the nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konishi, Emiko

    2012-01-01

    From the ICRP (2009) aspect of protection of people living in long-term contaminated area after a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency, the author discusses the title subject for expertise nursing at the restoration from the recent disaster of the nuclear power plant accident in Japan. Phases involved in the accident are the emergent and restoring period for retuning to the ordinary time. At the former phase, the reactor state is abnormal, radioactive substances are released in the environment, and emergent activities are required to prevent exposure like taking shelter indoor, evacuation, and limitation of forwarding and ingestion of food/water. For radiation management, the emergent dose of general public can be eased to 20-100 mSv, and at the latter restoration period, to 1-20 mSv/y (ICRP). Japan has defined for the former to be 20 mSv, which has brought about a heavy load like evacuation of 170 thousand people, death of patients during evacuation, unemployment, family broken up, school closing, etc. The author then mentions about the epidemiologically insignificant effect of lower dose than 200 mSv. Also mentions about the importance of mental care with an example of a housewives' anxiety in Tokyo, leading to the importance of nursing work. Further, about lost matters by fears of a small risk, like wearing the long sleeve clothes and mask in a closed room, buying foreign food rather than domestic, the misunderstood long retention of Cs-137 in the body because of its long physical half life, etc. Finally, the author lists home-pages for question and anxiety about radiological problems. (T.T.)

  3. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  4. A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leger, Stefan; Zwanenburg, Alex; Pilz, Karoline; Lohaus, Fabian; Linge, Annett; Zöphel, Klaus; Kotzerke, Jörg; Schreiber, Andreas; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Troost, Esther G C; Löck, Steffen; Richter, Christian

    2017-10-16

    Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

  5. Human umbilical-cord-blood mononucleated cells enhance the survival of lethally irradiated mice. Dosage and the window of time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalenko, Olga A.; Ende, Norman; Azzam, Edouard I.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the window of time and dose of human umbilical-cord-blood (HUCB) mononucleated cells necessary for successful treatment of radiation injury in mice. Female A/J mice (27-30 weeks old) were exposed to an absorbed dose of 9-10 Gy of 137 Cs γ-rays delivered acutely to the whole body. They were treated either with 1 × 10 8 or 2 × 10 8 HUCB mononucleated cells at 24-52 h after the irradiation. The antibiotic Levaquin was applied 4 h postirradiation. The increased dose of cord-blood cells resulted in enhanced survival. The enhancement of survival in animals that received 2 × 10 8 HUCB mononucleated cells relative to irradiated but untreated animals was highly significant (P < 0.01). Compared with earlier studies, the increased dose of HUCB mononucleated cells, coupled with early use of an antibiotic, extended the window of time for effective treatment of severe radiation injury from 4 to 24-52 h after exposure. (author)

  6. Survival of Lactobacillus plantarumU40 on the in vitro rumen fermentation quantified with real-time PCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.D. Astuti

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the survival of L. plantarumU40 quantified with real-time PCR during in vitro rumen fermentation. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with 3 treatments and 4 replications. Treatments were control, rumen fermentation inoculated with L. plantarumU40and L. plantarumU40 + glucose solution. Population of L. plantarum U40 was higher at inoculation treatment. After 8 hours incubation, glucose addition tended to decrease L. plantarum U40 population. Control treatment showed lowest population of L. plantarum U40 along in vitro fermentation compared with other treatment. Inoculation of L. plantarumU40 significantly (p<0.05 increased population of LAB until 12 hours incubation compared with control. Control treatment had highest pH at all incubation time. Glucose addition significantly (P<0.05 decreased final rumen pH (24 hours (6.30, compared with control treatment (6.85. Inoculation of L. plantarum U40 with glucose addition significantly (P<0.05increased propionic acid, decreased acetic acid and A/P ratio compared with other treatments. Lactobacillus plantarum U40 without glucose addition did not affect propionic acid production significantly. As conclusion, Lactobacillus plantarum U40 can survive in rumen fluid and changes rumen fermentation when glucose is added as carbon source.

  7. Slow Freezing or Vitrification of Oocytes: Their Effects on Survival and Meiotic Spindles, and the Time Schedule for Clinical Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shee-Uan Chen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Both the slow-freezing method with increased sucrose concentration and new vitrification techniques significantly improve the results of cryopreservation of human oocytes. The recent perfection for vitrification includes the concepts of increase of cooling and warming rates using minimum volume methods, and decrease of toxicity by reducing the concentration of cryoprotectants. In the recent literature, the survival of cryopreserved oocytes ranged from 74% to 90% using the slow-freezing method and from 84% to 99% by vitrification. Overall, the survival rate of oocytes from vitrification (95%, 899/948 appeared higher than that of the slow-freezing method (75%, 1,275/1,683. The microtubules of meiotic spindles are vulnerable to the thermal changes and will depolymerize. After incubation, the microtubules repolymerize. Spindle recovery is faster after vitrification than slow freezing. Even so, after 3 hours of incubation, spindle recuperation is similar between vitrification and slow freezing. Considering both aspects of spindle recovery and oocyte aging, the time schedule for oocyte cryopreservation program makes fertilization in the optimal time. Intracytoplasmic sperm injection is performed for oocytes at 3 hours of post-thaw incubation from the slow-freezing method and 2 hours from vitrification, with restoration of meiotic spindles. The pregnancy potential of cryopreserved oocytes is comparable to that of fresh oocytes or frozen embryos. Cryopreservation of oocytes would importantly contribute to oocyte donation and preservation of fertility for cancer patients.

  8. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. The radiological accident in Tammiku

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    On 21 October 1994, three brothers entered a waste repository at Tammiku, Estonia, without authorization and removed a metal container enclosing a caesium-137 source. During the removal the source was dislodged and fell to the ground. One of the men picked up the source, placed it in his pocket and took it to his home in the nearby village of Kiisa. Very soon after entry into the repository he began to feel ill, and few hours later he began to vomit. The man was subsequently admitted to hospital with severe injuries to his leg and hip and died on 2 November 1994. The injury and subsequent death were not attributed to radiation exposure, and the source remained in the man's house with his wife and stepson and the boy's great-grandmother. The boy was hospitalized on 17 November with severe burns on his hands, and these were identified by a doctor as radiation induced. The authorities were alerted, and the Estonian Rescue Board recovered the source from the house. The source was returned to the Tammiku repository on 18 November. The occupants of the house and one of the two surviving brothers were hospitalized and diagnosed as suffering from radiation induced injuries of varying severity. All were subsequently released from hospital, but, at the time of writing this report the treatment to the most exposed individuals is still continuing. The objective of this report is to provide information to national authorities and regulatory organizations so that they can take steps to minimize the risks of similar accidents in the future, and also put in place arrangements to deal with such accidents if they do occur. It is hoped that this report will be of general interest in the radiation protection community, although it si aimed primarily at managers of waste disposal facilities, and legislators and regulators, both in developing countries and in all countries reviewing their radiation protection legislation. This report describes the events leading up to the accident, the

  10. The M1 form of tumor-associated macrophages in non-small cell lung cancer is positively associated with survival time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Junliang; Liu, Lunxu; Che, Guowei; Yu, Nanbin; Dai, Fuqiang; You, Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function) and M2 (with pro-tumor function) forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group) and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages) and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm 2 ) in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm 2 ) and stroma (approximately 34/mm 2 ) of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm 2 ) and stroma (13/mm 2 ) of the short survival group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively). The M2 macrophage densities were not associated with patient's survival time. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma

  11. High-throughput microfluidics automated cytogenetic processing for effectively lowering biological process time and aid triage during radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakumar, Adarsh

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear or radiation mass casualties require individual, rapid, and accurate dose-based triage of exposed subjects for cytokine therapy and supportive care, to save life. Radiation mass casualties will demand high-throughput individual diagnostic dose assessment for medical management of exposed subjects. Cytogenetic techniques are widely used for triage and definitive radiation biodosimetry. Prototype platform to demonstrate high-throughput microfluidic micro incubation to support the logistics of sample in miniaturized incubators from the site of accident to analytical labs has been developed. Efforts have been made, both at the level of developing concepts and advanced system for higher throughput in processing the samples and also implementing better and efficient methods of logistics leading to performance of lab-on-chip analyses. Automated high-throughput platform with automated feature extraction, storage, cross platform data linkage, cross platform validation and inclusion of multi-parametric biomarker approaches will provide the first generation high-throughput platform systems for effective medical management, particularly during radiation mass casualty events

  12. The Impact of Timing and Graft Dysfunction on Survival and Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy in Antibody Mediated Rejection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Kevin J.; Restaino, Susan W.; Zorn, Emmanuel; Vasilescu, Elena R.; Marboe, Charles C.; Mancini, Donna M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibody mediated rejection (AMR) has been associated with increased mortality and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Early studies suggested that late AMR was rarely associated with graft dysfunction while recent reports have demonstrated an association with increased mortality. We sought to investigate the timing of AMR and its association with graft dysfunction, mortality, and CAV. Methods This retrospective cohort study identified all adult heart transplant recipients at Columbia University Medical Center from 2004–2013 (689 patients). There were 68 primary cases of AMR, which were stratified by early (1-year post-OHT) AMR. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and modeling was performed with multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results From January 1, 2004 through October 1, 2015 43 patients had early AMR (median 23 days post-OHT) and 25 had late AMR (median 1084 days post-OHT). Graft dysfunction was less common with early compared with late AMR (25.6% vs. 56%, p=0.01). Patients with late AMR had decreased post-AMR survival compared with early AMR (1-year 80% vs. 93%, 5-year 51% vs. 73%, p<0.05). When stratified by graft dysfunction, only those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had worse survival (30-day 79%, 1-year 64%, and 5-year 36%, p<0.006). The association remained irrespective of age, sex, DSA, LVAD use, reason for OHT, and recovery of graft function. Similarly, those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had accelerated development of de-novo CAV (50% at 1 year, HR 5.42, p=0.009), while all other groups were all similar to the general transplant population. Conclusion Late AMR is frequently associated with graft dysfunction. When graft dysfunction is present in late AMR there is an early and sustained increased risk of mortality and rapid development of de-novo CAV despite aggressive treatment. PMID:27423693

  13. Swedish National Registry of Urinary Bladder Cancer: No difference in relative survival over time despite more aggressive treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahnson, Staffan; Hosseini Aliabad, Abolfazl; Holmäng, Sten; Jancke, Georg; Liedberg, Fredrik; Ljungberg, Börje; Malmström, Per-Uno; Rosell, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Swedish National Registry of Urinary Bladder Cancer (SNRUBC) to investigate changes in patient and tumour characteristics, management and survival in bladder cancer cases over a period of 15 years. All patients with newly detected bladder cancer reported to the SNRUBC during 1997-2011 were included in the study. The cohort was divided into three groups, each representing 5 years of the 15 year study period. The study included 31,266 patients (74% men, 26% women) with a mean age of 72 years. Mean age was 71.7 years in the first subperiod (1997-2001) and 72.5 years in the last subperiod (2007-2011). Clinical T categorization changed from the first to the last subperiod: Ta from 45% to 48%, T1 from 21.6% to 22.4%, and T2-T4 from 27% to 25%. Also from the first to the last subperiod, intravesical treatment after transurethral resection for T1G2 and T1G3 tumours increased from 15% to 40% and from 30% to 50%, respectively, and cystectomy for T2-T4 tumours increased from 30% to 40%. No differences between the analysed subperiods were found regarding relative survival in patients with T1 or T2-T4 tumours, or in the whole cohort. This investigation based on a national bladder cancer registry showed that the age of the patients at diagnosis increased, and the proportion of muscle-invasive tumours decreased. The treatment of all tumour stages became more aggressive but relative survival showed no statistically significant change over time.

  14. Status of the Real-time On-line Decision Support (RODOS) system for off-site emergency management after nuclear and radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskov, W.; Ehrhardt, J.; Landman, C.; Pasler-Sauer, J.

    2006-01-01

    Under the auspices of its EURATOM Research Framework Programmes, the European Commission (EC) has supported the development of the comprehensive decision support system RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents for more than a decade. Many national research programmes, research institutes and industrial collaborators contributed to the project, in particular the German Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (B MU). The RODOS system can be applied to accidental releases into the atmosphere and various aquatic environments within and across Europe. It provides coherent support before, during and after such a release to assist analysis of the situation and decision making about short and long-term countermeasures for mitigating the consequences with respect to health, the environment, and the economy. Appropriate interfaces exist with local and national radiological monitoring data systems, meteorological measurements and forecasts, and for the adaptation to local, regional and national conditions in Europe. Within the European Integrated Project EURANOS of the sixth Framework Programme, the RODOS system is being enhanced, among others, for radiological emergencies such as dirty bombs attacks, transport accidents and satellite crashes by extensions of the nuclide list, the source term characteristics and the atmospheric dispersion model

  15. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-01-01

    Radiocaesium ( 134 Cs and 137 Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for 134 Cs and 137 Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of 137 Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2–3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of 137 Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. - Highlights: • Effective half-life of 137 Cs for first 2 y in new shoots of tea plants is 0.36 y. • Effective half-life of 134 Cs for first 2 y in new shoots of tea plants is 0.30 y. • 81% of radiocaesium existed in foliar layer and branches in 3 months after fallout. • High radiocaesium activity moved from upper to lower parts of tea plants

  16. Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1...... stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259...

  17. A flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival times for censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiguchi, Miki; Cronin, Angel M; Takeuchi, Masahiro; Uno, Hajime

    2018-04-22

    In randomized clinical trials where time-to-event is the primary outcome, almost routinely, the logrank test is prespecified as the primary test and the hazard ratio is used to quantify treatment effect. If the ratio of 2 hazard functions is not constant, the logrank test is not optimal and the interpretation of hazard ratio is not obvious. When such a nonproportional hazards case is expected at the design stage, the conventional practice is to prespecify another member of weighted logrank tests, eg, Peto-Prentice-Wilcoxon test. Alternatively, one may specify a robust test as the primary test, which can capture various patterns of difference between 2 event time distributions. However, most of those tests do not have companion procedures to quantify the treatment difference, and investigators have fallen back on reporting treatment effect estimates not associated with the primary test. Such incoherence in the "test/estimation" procedure may potentially mislead clinicians/patients who have to balance risk-benefit for treatment decision. To address this, we propose a flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival time, where the truncation time τ is selected data dependently. The proposed procedure is composed of a prespecified test and an estimation of corresponding robust and interpretable quantitative treatment effect. The utility of the new procedure is demonstrated by numerical studies based on 2 randomized cancer clinical trials; the test is dramatically more powerful than the logrank, Wilcoxon tests, and the restricted mean survival time-based test with a fixed τ, for the patterns of difference seen in these cancer clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Effect of Migration Pathway on Travel Time and Survival of Acoustic-Tagged Juvenile Salmonids in the Columbia River Estuary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harnish, Ryan A.; Johnson, Gary E.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Hughes, Michael S.; Ebberts, Blaine D.

    2012-02-01

    Off-channel areas (side channels, tidal flats, sand bars, and shallow-water bays) may serve as important migration corridors through estuarine environments for salmon and steelhead smolts. Relatively large percentages (21-33%) of acoustic-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts were detected migrating through off-channel areas of the Columbia River estuary in 2008. The probability of survival for off-channel migrants (0.78-0.94) was similar to or greater than the survival probability of main channel migrants (0.67-0.93). Median travel times were similar for all species or run types and migration pathways we examined, ranging from 1-2 d. The route used by smolts to migrate through the estuary may affect their vulnerability to predation. Acoustic-tagged steelhead that migrated nearest to avian predator nesting colonies experienced higher predation rates (24%) than those that migrated farthest from the colonies (10%). The use of multiple migration pathways may be advantageous to out-migrating smolts because it helps to buffer against high rates of mortality, which may occur in localized areas, and helps to minimize inter- and intraspecific competition.

  19. Tchernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-06-01

    First, R.M.B.K type reactors are described. Then, safety problems are dealt with reactor control, behavior during transients, normal loss of power and behavior of the reactor in case of leak. A possible scenario of the accident of Tchernobyl is proposed: events before the explosion, possible initiators, possible scenario and events subsequent to the core meltdown (corium-concrete interaction, interaction with the groundwater table). An estimation of the source term is proposed first from the installation characteristics and the supposed scenario of the accident, and from the measurements in Europe; radiological consequences are also estimated. Radioactivity measurements (Europe, Scandinavia, Western Europe, France) are given in tables (meteorological maps and fallouts in Europe). Finally, a description of the site is given [fr

  20. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISES, METHODS OF ADAPTATION AND SURVIVAL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Oprea

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.

  1. Thresholds and timing of pre-operative thrombocytosis and ovarian cancer survival: analysis of laboratory measures from electronic medical records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cozzi, Gabriella D.; Samuel, Jacob M.; Fromal, Jason T.; Keene, Spencer; Crispens, Marta A.; Khabele, Dineo; Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia

    2016-01-01

    Thrombocytosis has been associated with poor ovarian cancer prognosis. However, comparisons of thresholds to define thrombocytosis and evaluation of relevant timing of platelet measurement has not been previously conducted. We selected Tumor Registry confirmed ovarian, primary peritoneal, and fallopian tube cancer cases diagnosed between 1995–2013 from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Laboratory measured platelet values from electronic medical records (EMR) were used to determine thrombocytosis at three thresholds: a platelet count greater than 350, 400, or 450 × 10 9 /liter. Timing was evaluated with 5 intervals: on the date of diagnosis, and up to 1, 2, 4, and 8 weeks prior to the date of diagnosis. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for association with overall survival; adjustment included age, stage, grade, and histologic subtype of disease. Pre-diagnosis platelet measures were available for 136, 241, 280, 297, and 304 cases in the five intervals. The prevalence of thrombocytosis decreased with increasing thresholds and was generally consistent across the five time intervals, ranging from 44.8–53.2 %, 31.6–39.4 %, and 19.9–26.1 % across the three thresholds. Associations with higher grade and stage of disease gained significance as the threshold increased. With the exception of the lowest threshold on the date of diagnosis (HR 350 : 1.55, 95 % CI: 0.97–2.47), all other survival associations were significant, with the highest reaching twice the risk of death for thrombocytosis on the date of diagnosis (HR 400 : 2.01, 95 % CI: 1.25–3.23). Our EMR approach yielded associations comparable to published findings from medical record abstraction approaches. In addition, our results indicate that lower thrombocytosis thresholds and platelet measures up to 8 weeks before diagnosis may inform ovarian cancer characteristics and prognosis

  2. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work? A prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Holtermann

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. METHODS: In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time physical activity and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with different levels of occupational physical activity. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 22.4 years, 4,003 individuals died from cardiovascular disease and 8,935 from all-causes. Irrespective of level of occupational physical activity, a consistently lower risk with increasing leisure time physical activity was found for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among both men and women. Compared to low leisure time physical activity, the survival benefit ranged from 1.5-3.6 years for moderate and 2.6-4.7 years for high leisure time physical activity among the different levels of occupational physical activity. CONCLUSION: Public campaigns and initiatives for increasing physical activity in the working population should target everybody, irrespective of physical activity at work.

  3. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work? A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn; Søgaard, Karen; Suadicani, Poul; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Prescott, Eva; Schnohr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time physical activity and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with different levels of occupational physical activity. During a median follow-up of 22.4 years, 4,003 individuals died from cardiovascular disease and 8,935 from all-causes. Irrespective of level of occupational physical activity, a consistently lower risk with increasing leisure time physical activity was found for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among both men and women. Compared to low leisure time physical activity, the survival benefit ranged from 1.5-3.6 years for moderate and 2.6-4.7 years for high leisure time physical activity among the different levels of occupational physical activity. Public campaigns and initiatives for increasing physical activity in the working population should target everybody, irrespective of physical activity at work.

  4. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  5. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome after single-lung transplantation: impact of time to onset on functional pattern and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugière, Olivier; Pessione, Fabienne; Thabut, Gabriel; Mal, Hervé; Jebrak, Gilles; Lesèche, Guy; Fournier, Michel

    2002-06-01

    Among risk factors for the progression of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) after lung transplantation (LT), the influence of time to BOS onset is not known. The aim of the study was to assess if BOS occurring earlier after LT is associated with worse functional prognosis and worse graft survival. We retrospectively compared functional outcome and survival of all single-LT (SLT) recipients who had BOS develop during follow-up in our center according to time to onset of BOS ( or = 3 years after transplantation). Among the 29 SLT recipients with BOS identified during the study period, 20 patients had early-onset BOS and 9 patients had late-onset BOS. The mean decline of FEV(1) over time during the first 9 months in patients with early-onset BOS was significantly greater than in patients with of late-onset BOS (p = 0.04). At last follow-up, patients with early-onset BOS had a lower mean FEV(1) value (25% vs 39% of predicted, p = 0.004), a lower mean PaO(2) value (54 mm Hg vs 73 mm Hg, p = 0.0005), a lower 6-min walk test distance (241 m vs 414 m, p = 0.001), a higher Medical Research Council index value (3.6 vs 1.6, p = 0.0001), and a higher percentage of oxygen dependency (90% vs 11%, p = 0.001) compared with patients with late-onset BOS. In addition, graft survival of patients with early-onset BOS was significantly lower than that of patients with late-onset BOS (log-rank test, p = 0.04). There were 18 of 20 graft failures (90%) in the early-onset BOS group, directly attributable to BOS in all cases (deaths [n = 10] or retransplantation [n = 8]). In the late-onset BOS group, graft failure occurred in four of nine patients due to death from extrapulmonary causes in three of four cases. The median duration of follow-up after occurrence of BOS was not statistically different between patients with early-onset BOS and patients with late-onset BOS (31 +/- 28 months and 37 +/- 26 months, respectively; p = not significant). The subgroup of patients who had BOS develop

  6. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre

    2016-01-01

    Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung...... surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown......-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p

  7. Abundance of early functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cells does not predict AIDS-free survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid M M Schellens

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.

  8. Polygenic Score × Intervention Moderation: an Application of Discrete-Time Survival Analysis to Model the Timing of First Marijuana Use Among Urban Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musci, Rashelle J; Fairman, Brian; Masyn, Katherine E; Uhl, George; Maher, Brion; Sisto, Danielle Y; Kellam, Sheppard G; Ialongo, Nicholas S

    2018-01-01

    The present study examines the interaction between a polygenic score and an elementary school-based universal preventive intervention trial and its effects on a discrete-time survival analysis of time to first smoking marijuana. Research has suggested that initiation of substances is both genetically and environmentally driven (Rhee et al., Archives of general psychiatry 60:1256-1264, 2003; Verweij et al., Addiction 105:417-430, 2010). A previous work has found a significant interaction between the polygenic score and the same elementary school-based intervention with tobacco smoking (Musci et al., in press). The polygenic score reflects the contribution of multiple genes and has been shown in prior research to be predictive of smoking cessation, tobacco use, and marijuana use (Uhl et al., Molecular Psychiatry 19:50-54, 2014). Using data from a longitudinal preventive intervention study (N = 678), we examined age of first marijuana use from sixth grade to age 18. Genetic data were collected during emerging adulthood and were genotyped using the Affymetrix 6.0 microarray (N = 545). The polygenic score was computed using these data. Discrete-time survival analysis was employed to test for intervention main and interaction effects with the polygenic score. We found main effect of the polygenic score approaching significance, with the participants with higher polygenic scores reporting their first smoking marijuana at an age significantly later than controls (p = .050). We also found a significant intervention × polygenic score interaction effect at p = .003, with participants at the higher end of the polygenic score benefiting the most from the intervention in terms of delayed age of first use. These results suggest that genetics may play an important role in the age of first use of marijuana and that differences in genetics may account for the differential effectiveness of classroom-based interventions in delaying substance use experimentation.

  9. Prevention of pedestrian accidents.

    OpenAIRE

    Kendrick, D

    1993-01-01

    Child pedestrian accidents are the most common road traffic accident resulting in injury. Much of the existing work on road traffic accidents is based on analysing clusters of accidents despite evidence that child pedestrian accidents tend to be more dispersed than this. This paper analyses pedestrian accidents in 573 children aged 0-11 years by a locally derived deprivation score for the years 1988-90. The analysis shows a significantly higher accident rate in deprived areas and a dose respo...

  10. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong.

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP's cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs

  11. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP`s cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs.

  12. The effect of timing and graft dysfunction on survival and cardiac allograft vasculopathy in antibody-mediated rejection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Kevin J; Restaino, Susan W; Zorn, Emmanuel; Vasilescu, Elena R; Marboe, Charles C; Mancini, Donna M

    2016-09-01

    Antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) has been associated with increased death and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Early studies suggested that late AMR was rarely associated with graft dysfunction, whereas recent reports have demonstrated an association with increased mortality. We investigated the timing of AMR and its association with graft dysfunction, death, and CAV. This retrospective cohort study identified all adult orthotopic heart transplant (OHT) recipients (N = 689) at Columbia University Medical Center from 2004 to 2013. There were 68 primary cases of AMR, which were stratified by early ( 1 year post-OHT) AMR. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and modeling was performed with multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. From January 1, 2004, through October 1, 2015, early AMR (median 23 days post-OHT) occurred in 43 patients and late AMR (median 1,084 days post-OHT) occurred in 25. Graft dysfunction was less common with early compared with late AMR (25.6% vs 56%, p = 0.01). Patients with late AMR had decreased post-AMR survival compared with early AMR (1 year: 80% vs 93%, 5 years: 51% vs 73%, p < 0.05). When stratified by graft dysfunction, only those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had worse survival (30 days: 79%, 1 year: 64%, 5 years: 36%; p < 0.006). The association remained irrespective of age, sex, donor-specific antibodies, left ventricular assist device use, reason for OHT, and recovery of graft function. Similarly, those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had accelerated development of de novo CAV (50% at 1 year; hazard ratio, 5.42; p = 0.009), whereas all other groups were all similar to the general transplant population. Late AMR is frequently associated with graft dysfunction. When graft dysfunction is present in late AMR, there is an early and sustained increased risk of death and rapid development of de novo CAV despite aggressive treatment. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Heart and Lung

  13. Studying DDT Susceptibility at Discriminating Time Intervals Focusing on Maximum Limit of Exposure Time Survived by DDT Resistant Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae): an Investigative Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rama, Aarti; Kesari, Shreekant; Das, Pradeep; Kumar, Vijay

    2017-07-24

    Extensive application of routine insecticide i.e., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) to control Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae), the proven vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, had evoked the problem of resistance/tolerance against DDT, eventually nullifying the DDT dependent strategies to control this vector. Because tolerating an hour-long exposure to DDT is not challenging enough for the resistant P. argentipes, estimating susceptibility by exposing sand flies to insecticide for just an hour becomes a trivial and futile task.Therefore, this bioassay study was carried out to investigate the maximum limit of exposure time to which DDT resistant P. argentipes can endure the effect of DDT for their survival. The mortality rate of laboratory-reared DDT resistant strain P. argentipes exposed to DDT was studied at discriminating time intervals of 60 min and it was concluded that highly resistant sand flies could withstand up to 420 min of exposure to this insecticide. Additionally, the lethal time for female P. argentipes was observed to be higher than for males suggesting that they are highly resistant to DDT's toxicity. Our results support the monitoring of tolerance limit with respect to time and hence points towards an urgent need to change the World Health Organization's protocol for susceptibility identification in resistant P. argentipes.

  14. Is Leptospira able to survive in raw milk? Study on the inactivation at different storage times and temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico

    2016-09-01

    The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers.

  15. On the time development of the population dose in selected settlements of Korma county in Belarus about 13 years after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dederichs, H.; Hill, P.; Hille, R.; Konoplya, E.

    2000-01-01

    After the reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 the time development of environmental contamination and population doses was investigated by several national and international institutions. One of the most comprehensive projects was the German three-year measuring campaign that was started in 1991. Though concerning the ingestion dose in-vivo monitoring proved, that the international annual dose limit of 1 mSv/a had only been exceeded in less than 2% of 317,000 cases, an a priori unexpected upward trend of mean annual doses showed the necessity of further studies to verify the long-term evaluation of the population dose. Several small follow-up studies were initiated in Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. This paper reports especially on a study in Belarus, where two municipalities in Korma county were selected for further investigations: Wornovka, a purely agricultural municipality, and Volincy, an agricultural and forestal municipality. The ground contamination of these two areas was between 300 kBq/m 2 and 630 kBq/m 2 in 1991. In contrast to Wornovka the municipality of Volincy is surrounded by a contaminated forest area and isolated from the main part of Korma county by a highly contaminated evacuation zone and the river Sosch. Both the internal contamination of people as well as the contamination of the environment and food have been assessed using mobile in-vivo and environmental monitoring systems. Measurements of soil contamination in 1998 show a drop down to a mean of less than 200 kBq/m 2 in both municipalities. The evaluation of the internal contamination with time is however quite different: in the year 1992 the mean value at Wornovka was 0.8 kBq, 1.7 kBq in 1997 and 2.8 kBq in autumn 1998. At Volincy the internal contamination increased from 6.1 kBq in 1992 to 14.1 kBq in 1998 and even 51.2 kBq in early summer 1999 corresponding to an internal dose of about 2 mSv/a. Body burdens of up to 660 kBq 137 Cs have been observed. Due to the severe economic

  16. Thyroid diseases after Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagataki, Shigenobu

    1993-01-01

    Radioactive iodine is released at every atomic-bomb testings and nuclear plants accidents and radioactive iodine is taken up by thyroid glands (internal radiation). In addition to the internal radiation, radioactive fallout causes the external radiation and thyroid glands are known to be sensitive to the external radiation. Furthermore, patients with radiation-induced thyroid disease can survive for a long time regardless of the treatment. The survey of thyroid diseases, therefore, is very sensitive and reliable ways to investigate the effects of radiation caused by atomic bomb explosion, testing and various types of nuclear plants' accidents. Our group from Nagasaki University was asked to investigate the thyroid diseases and jointed to the Sasakawa Project. In order to investigate the effects of radiation on thyroid disease, it is essential 1) to make a correct diagnosis in each subject, 2) to calculate a correct radiation dose in each subject and finally, 3) to find out the correlation between the radiation dose and thyroid diseases including age-, sex- and area-matched controls. We have established 5 centers (1 in Russia, 2 in Belarus, 2 in Ukraine) and supplied the most valuable ultrasonography instruments, commercial kits for the determination of serum free T 4 and TSH level and for the autoantibodies, instrument for urinary iodine measurements, syringers, tubes, refrigerators, etc. We visit each center often and asked people at centers to come to Japan for training. Protocol of investigation is essentially the same as that in Nagasaki, and we are planning to investigate more than 50,000 children within 5 years. We are hoping to show a definite conclusion in the near future. Recent articles are also discussed. (author)

  17. Radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-01-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity

  18. Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bar'yakhtar, V.G.

    1995-01-01

    The monograph contains the catastrophe's events chronology, the efficiency assessed of those measures assumed for their localization as well as their environmental and socio-economic impact. Among materials of the monograph the results are presented of research on the radioactive contamination field forming as well as those concerning the investigation of biogeochemical properties of Chernobyl radionuclides and their migration process in the environment of the Ukraine. The data dealing with biological effects of the continued combined internal and external radioactive influence on plants, animals and human health under the circumstances of Chernobyl accident are of the special interest. In order to provide the scientific generalizing information on the medical aspects of Chernobyl catastrophe, the great part of the monograph is allotted to appraise those factors affecting the health of different population groups as well as to depict clinic aspects of Chernobyl events and medico-sanitarian help system. The National Programme of Ukraine for the accident consequences elimination and population social protection assuring for the years 1986-1993 and this Programme concept for the period up to the year 2000 with a special regard of the world community participation there

  19. Suspected survivor bias in case-control studies: stratify on survival time and use a negative control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rein, Nienke; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Rosendaal, Frits R; Reitsma, Pieter H; Lijfering, Willem M

    2014-02-01

    Selection bias in case-control studies occurs when control selection is inappropriate. However, selection bias due to improper case sampling is less well recognized. We describe how to recognize survivor bias (i.e., selection on exposed cases) and illustrate this with an example study. A case-control study was used to analyze the effect of statins on major bleedings during treatment with vitamin K antagonists. A total of 110 patients who experienced such bleedings were included 18-1,018 days after the bleeding complication and matched to 220 controls. A protective association of major bleeding for exposure to statins (odds ratio [OR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-1.08) was found, which did not become stronger after adjustment for confounding factors. These observations lead us to suspect survivor bias. To identify this bias, results were stratified on time between bleeding event and inclusion, and repeated for a negative control (an exposure not related to survival): blood group non-O. The ORs for exposure to statins increased gradually to 1.37 with shorter time between outcome and inclusion, whereas ORs for the negative control remained constant, confirming our hypothesis. We recommend the presented method to check for overoptimistic results, that is, survivor bias in case-control studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  1. Construction industry accidents in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camino López, Miguel A; Ritzel, Dale O; Fontaneda, Ignacio; González Alcantara, Oscar J

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzed industrial accidents that take place on construction sites and their severity. Eighteen variables were studied. We analyzed the influence of each of these with respect to the severity and fatality of the accident. This descriptive analysis was grounded in 1,630,452 accidents, representing the total number of accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector in Spain over the period 1990-2000. It was shown that age, type of contract, time of accident, length of service in the company, company size, day of the week, and the remainder of the variables under analysis influenced the seriousness of the accident. IMPACT ON INJURY PREVENTION: The results obtained show that different training was needed, depending on the severity of accidents, for different age, length of service in the company, organization of work, and time when workers work. The research provides an insight to the likely causes of construction injuries in Spain. As a result of the analysis, industries and governmental agencies in Spain can start to provide appropriate strategies and training to the construction workers.

  2. The number and microlocalization of tumor-associated immune cells are associated with patient's survival time in non-small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, Fuqiang; Liu, Lunxu; Che, Guowei; Yu, Nanbin; Pu, Qiang; Zhang, Shangfu; Ma, Junliang; Ma, Lin; You, Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical staining for CD68 (marker for macrophages), CD83 (marker for mature dendritic cells), and CD8 (marker for cytotoxic T cells) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The numbers of immune cells in tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets, or tumor stroma were counted under a microscope. Correlation of the cell numbers and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (version 13.0). The numbers of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells were significantly more in the tumor stroma than in the tumor islets. The number of macrophages in the tumor islets was positively associated with patient's survival time, whereas the number of macrophages in the tumor stroma was negatively associated with patient's survival time in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The number of mature dendritic cells in the tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets only, or tumor stroma only was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets and stroma was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets only or stroma

  3. Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. An exploratory discrete-time multilevel analysis of the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhixin; Jones, Kelvyn; Wang, Wenfei Winnie

    2015-01-01

    This study undertakes a survival analysis of elderly persons in China using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002–2008. Employing discrete-time multilevel models, we explored the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China. This study focuses on objective (living arrangements and received support) and subjective activities (perceived support) of social support, finding that the effect of different activities of social support on the survival of elderly people varies according to the availability of different support resources. Specifically, living with a spouse, financial independence, perceiving care support from any resource is associated with higher survival rates for elderly people. Separate analysis focusing on urban elderly and rural elderly revealed broadly similar results. There is a larger difference between those perceiving care support from family or social service and not perceiving care support in urban areas comparing to those in rural areas. Those who cannot pay medical expenses are the least likely to survive. The higher level of economic development in province has no significant effect on the survival of elderly people for the whole sample model and the elderly people in urban areas; however, there is a negative influence on the survival of the rural elderly people. PMID:25703671

  5. Results of surgical excision and evaluation of factors associated with survival time in dogs with lingual neoplasia: 97 cases (1995-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, William T N; Ehrhart, Nicole; Withrow, Stephen J; Rebhun, Robert B; Boston, Sarah; Buracco, Paolo; Reiter, Alexander M; Schallberger, Sandra P; Aldridge, Charles F; Kent, Michael S; Mayhew, Philipp D; Brown, Dorothy C

    2013-05-15

    To describe the clinical characteristics, treatments, outcomes, and factors associated with survival time in a cohort of dogs with lingual neoplasia that underwent surgical excision. Retrospective case series. Animals-97 client-owned dogs. Medical records of dogs with a lingual tumor examined between 1995 and 2008 were reviewed. Records were included if a lingual tumor was confirmed by histologic examination and surgical excision of the mass was attempted. Data were recorded and analyzed to identify prognostic factors. Clinical signs were mostly related to the oral cavity. For 93 dogs, marginal excision, subtotal glossectomy, and near-total glossectomy were performed in 35 (38%), 55 (59%), and 3 (3%), respectively. Surgery-related complications were rare, but 27 (28%) dogs had tumor recurrence. The most common histopathologic diagnoses for the 97 dogs were squamous cell carcinoma (31 [32%]) and malignant melanoma (29 [30%]). Eighteen (19%) dogs developed metastatic disease, and the overall median survival time was 483 days. Median survival time was 216 days for dogs with squamous cell carcinoma and 241 days for dogs with malignant melanoma. Dogs with lingual tumors ≥ 2 cm in diameter at diagnosis had a significantly shorter survival time than did dogs with tumors melanoma predominate. A thorough physical examination to identify lingual tumors at an early stage and surgical treatment after tumor identification are recommended because tumor size significantly affected survival time.

  6. 29 CFR 1960.70 - Reporting of serious accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reporting of serious accidents. 1960.70 Section 1960.70... accidents. Agencies must provide the Office of Federal Agency Programs with a summary report of each fatal and catastrophic accident investigation. The summaries shall address the date/time of accident, agency...

  7. Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capra, D.; Facchini, U.; Gianelle, V.; Ravasini, G.; Bacci, P.

    1988-01-01

    The radioactive cloud released during the Chernobyl accident reached the Padana plain and Lombardy in the night of April 30th 1986; the cloud remained in the northern Italian skies for a few days and then disappeared either dispersed by winds and washed by rains. The evidence in atmosphere of radionuclides as Tellurium, Iodine, Cesium, was promptly observed. The intense rain, in first week of may, washed the radioactivity and fall-out contamined the land, soil, grass. The present work concerns the overall contamination of the Northern Italy territory and in particular the radioactive fall-out in the Lakes region. Samples of soil have been measured at the gamma spectroscope; a correlation is found between the radionuclides concentration in soil samples and the rain intensity, when appropriate deposition models are considered. A number of measurements has been done on the Como'lake ecosystem: sediments, plankton, fishes and the overall fall-out in the area has been investigated

  8. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  9. Accident Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tripputi, Ivo; Lund, Ingemar

    2002-01-01

    There is a general feeling that decommissioning is an activity involving limited risks, compared to NPP operation, and in particular risks involving the general public. This is technically confirmed by licensing analysis and evaluations, where, once the spent fuel has been removed from the plant, the radioactivity inventory available to be released to the environment is very limited. Decommissioning activities performed so far in the world have also confirmed the first assumptions and no specific issue has been identified, in this field, to justify a completely new approach. Commercial interests in international harmonization, which could drive an in-depth discussion about the bases of this approach, are weak at the moment. However, there are several reasons why a discussion in an international framework about the Safety Case for decommissioning (and, in particular, about Accident Assessment) may be considered necessary and important, and why it may show some specific and peculiar aspects. An effort for a comprehensive and systematic D and D accident safety assessment of the decommissioning process is justified. It is necessary also to explore in a holistic way the aspects of industrial safety, and develop tools for the decision-making process optimization. The expected results are the implementation of appropriate and optimized protective measures in any event and of adequate on/off-site emergency plans for optimal public and workers protection. The experience from other decommissioning projects and large-scale industrial activities is essential to balance provisions and an Operating Experience review process (specific for decommissioning) should help to focus on real issues

  10. Efficacy of Re-188-labelled sulphur colloid on prolongation of survival time in melanoma-bearing animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, F.D.; Hsieh, B.T.; Wang, H.E.; Ou, Y.H.; Yang, W.K.; Whang-Peng, J.; Liu, R.S.; Knapp, F.F.; Ting, G.; Yen, S.H.

    2001-01-01

    In this study, the effectiveness of a 188 Re labeled sulfur colloid with two particle size ranges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of this agent on melanoma tumors in mice in terms of animal lifespan. Methods: Two separate group of animals were used for investigating biodistribution and survival time. A total of 188 B16F10-melanoma-bearing BDF 1 mice were injected intraperitoneally with 3.7 MBq (0.1mCi)/2mL of radiolabeled sulfur colloid ten days after intraperitoneal inoculation of 5x10 5 B16F10 melanoma cells/2ml. For group 1, 30 mice were sacrificed at 1, 4, 24, 48 and 72 hours for biodistribution studies. In group 2, 158 mice were divided into 9 groups (n=16∼18/groups)each receiving respectively tumor alone, tumor with normal saline, cold colloid or hot colloid with 16, 23, 31, 46, 62, or 124 MBq activity. Each of these colloid groups was further divided into two groups, one receiving smaller particle sizes ( 188 Re-sulfur colloid is an effective agent in controlling tumor cells in the abdominal cavity in animals

  11. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the D-loop region of mitochondrial DNA is associated with the kidney survival time in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jinsheng; Guo, Zhanjun; Bai, Yaling; Zhang, Junxia; Cui, Liwen; Zhang, Huiran; Zhang, Shenglei; Ai, Xiaolu

    2015-02-01

    The mitochondrial displacement loop (D-loop) is known to accumulate mutations and SNPs at a higher frequency than other regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). We had identified chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients previously. In this study, we investigated the association of SNPs in the D-loop of mtDNA with the kidney survival of CKD. The D-loop region of mtDNA was sequenced for 119 CKD patients from the inpatient of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to identify disease outcome-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for the kidney survival of CKD. In the present study, we identified 20 SNPs with a frequency higher than 5% and assessed the relationship of these SNPs with kidney survival time in CKD patients, a SNP of 146 was identified by log-rank test for statistically significant prediction of the kidney survival time. In an overall multivariate analysis, allele 146 was identified as an independent predictor of kidney survival time in CKD patients. The survival time of kidney in the CKD patients with 146C was significantly shorter than that of kidney in CKD patients with 146T (relative risk, 2.336; 95% CI, 1.319-3.923; p = 0.001). SNPs in the D-loop can predict the kidney survival of CKD patients. Analysis of genetic polymorphisms in the mitochondrial D-loop can help to identify CKD patient subgroup at high risk of a poor disease outcome.

  12. Expression of S1P metabolizing enzymes and receptors correlate with survival time and regulate cell migration in glioblastoma multiforme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bien-Möller, Sandra; Lange, Sandra; Holm, Tobias; Böhm, Andreas; Paland, Heiko; Küpper, Johannes; Herzog, Susann; Weitmann, Kerstin; Havemann, Christoph; Vogelgesang, Silke; Marx, Sascha; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Schroeder, Henry W S; Rauch, Bernhard H

    2016-03-15

    A signaling molecule which is involved in proliferation and migration of malignant cells is the lipid mediator sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). There are hints for a potential role of S1P signaling in malignant brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) which is characterized by a poor prognosis. Therefore, a comprehensive expression analysis of S1P receptors (S1P1-S1P5) and S1P metabolizing enzymes in human GBM (n = 117) compared to healthy brain (n = 10) was performed to evaluate their role for patient´s survival. Furthermore, influence of S1P receptor inhibition on proliferation and migration were studied in LN18 GBM cells. Compared to control brain, mRNA levels of S1P1, S1P2, S1P3 and S1P generating sphingosine kinase-1 were elevated in GBM. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated an association between S1P1 and S1P2 with patient´s survival times. In vitro, an inhibitory effect of the SphK inhibitor SKI-II on viability of LN18 cells was shown. S1P itself had no effect on viability but stimulated LN18 migration which was blocked by inhibition of S1P1 and S1P2. The participation of S1P1 and S1P2 in LN18 migration was further supported by siRNA-mediated silencing of these receptors. Immunoblots and inhibition experiments suggest an involvement of the PI3-kinase/AKT1 pathway in the chemotactic effect of S1P in LN18 cells.In summary, our data argue for a role of S1P signaling in proliferation and migration of GBM cells. Individual components of the S1P pathway represent prognostic factors for patients with GBM. Perspectively, a selective modulation of S1P receptor subtypes could represent a therapeutic approach for GBM patients and requires further evaluation.

  13. The accident information and management system CAIRE for real time applications. Das Stoerfall-Leitsystem CAIRE fuer Echtzeitanwendungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenk, H.D.; Kluttig, H.; Witt, H. de; Kistinger, S.; Kruschel, K.P.; Knaup, A.G.

    1992-01-01

    Remote monitoring systems have increased their importance as an inherent part of environmental surveillance installations in the FRG and in other countries. The existing systems in Germany are designed to cover both, routine operation and emergency situations. They provide site specific meteorological data, gross effluent dose rates, and dose rate measurements at on-site and approximately 30 off-site locations in the vicinity of a plant. Based on such telemetric surveillance networks an advanced automatic on-line system named CAIRE (Computer Aided Response to Emergencies) has been developed as a real time emergency response tool for nuclear facilities. This tool is designed to provide decision makers with most relevant radiation exposure data of the population at risk. CAIRE allows the continuous feed-back of current measurements of environmental impacts into diagnostic calculations for bringing measurements and calculations into best correspondence. This is the main advantage of CAIRE compared to conventional emergency systems and it results in both, a consistent actual interpretation of a bulk of single measurements of dose rates and/or activity concentrations, and a more realistic set of model parameters. Subsequently these parameters are used as input data for the evaluation of actual dose commitments and projections of them by means of real-time calculation. A second advantage is a more realistic assessment of the source term if in-plant dose rate measurements are not available due to emissions out of leckages, e.g. In such cases the assessment of the source term can be based an of-plant dose rate measurements located on the ground within a source distance between 200 and 300 m. (orig./HP).

  14. First off-time treatment prostate-specific antigen kinetics predicts survival in intermittent androgen deprivation for prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Salas, Rafael; Olivier, Fabien; Prapotnich, Dominique; Dancausa, José; Fhima, Mehdi; David, Stéphane; Secin, Fernando P; Ingels, Alexandre; Barret, Eric; Galiano, Marc; Rozet, François; Cathelineau, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time is relying on an exponential kinetic pattern. This pattern has never been validated in the setting of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD). Objective is to analyze the prognostic significance for PCa of recurrent patterns in PSA kinetics in patients undergoing IAD. A retrospective study was conducted on 377 patients treated with IAD. On-treatment period (ONTP) consisted of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist injections combined with oral androgen receptor antagonist. Off-treatment period (OFTP) began when PSA was lower than 4 ng/ml. ONTP resumed when PSA was higher than 20 ng/ml. PSA values of each OFTP were fitted with three basic patterns: exponential (PSA(t) = λ.e(αt)), linear (PSA(t) = a.t), and power law (PSA(t) = a.t(c)). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analyzed predictive factors for oncologic outcomes. Only 45% of the analyzed OFTPs were exponential. Linear and power law PSA kinetics represented 7.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Remaining fraction of analyzed OFTPs (40%) exhibited complex kinetics. Exponential PSA kinetics during the first OFTP was significantly associated with worse oncologic outcome. The estimated 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 46% for exponential versus 80% for nonexponential PSA kinetics patterns. The corresponding 10-year probability of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) was 69% and 31% for the two patterns, respectively. Limitations include retrospective design and mixed indications for IAD. PSA kinetic fitted with exponential pattern in approximately half of the OFTPs. First OFTP exponential PSA kinetic was associated with a shorter time to CRPC and worse CSS. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Effect of time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy on local recurrence-free survival in preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yeon Joo; Kim, Jong Hoon; Yu, Chang Sik; Kim, Tae Won; Jang, Se Jin; Choi, Eun Kyung; Kim, Jin Cheon [Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Won Sik [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    The concentration of capecitabine peaks at 1–2 hours after administration. We therefore assumed that proper timing of capecitabine administration and radiotherapy would maximize radiosensitization and influence survival among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 223 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent preoperative chemoradiation, followed by surgery from January 2002 to May 2006. All patients underwent pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy/25 fractions) and received capecitabine twice daily at 12-hour intervals (1,650 mg/m2/day). Patients were divided into two groups according to the time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy. Patients who took capecitabine 1 hour before radiotherapy were classified as Group A (n = 109); all others were classified as Group B (n = 114). The median follow-up period was 72 months (range, 7 to 149 months). Although Group A had a significantly higher rate of good responses (44% vs. 25%; p = 0.005), the 5-year local recurrence-free survival rates of 93% in Group A and 97% in Group B did not differ significantly (p = 0.519). The 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates were also comparable between the groups. Despite the better pathological response in Group A, the time interval between capecitabine and radiotherapy administration did not have a significant effect on survivals. Further evaluations are needed to clarify the interaction of these treatment modalities.

  16. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Stahl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process.The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant.To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance.Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches.The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  17. Analysis of fatal accidents with tractors in the Centre of Portugal: Ten years analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Soraia M; Cordeiro, Cristina; Teixeira, Helena M

    2018-06-01

    Tractors have been described as one of the deadliest farming implements concerning agricultural activity. In Portugal, the scientific investigations about this problem are practically non-existent, with only statistical studies performed by entities related to road traffic safety, not in accordance to the study now performed, pinpointing the possibility of an underreporting of these accidents. This work aims to characterize the fatal tractor accidents in Portugal, autopsied at the Forensic Pathology Department of the Centre Branch of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences of Portugal, analysing several variables: gender, age, occupation, survival time, the victim position in the tractor, cause of death, toxicological and histological exams, year/month/day of the week, type of agricultural machine, existence of rollover protective structures (ROPS), type of accident, ground conditions, circumstantial information and geographic distribution of the accidents. All the autopsies between 2005 and 2014 were analysed. The victim profile corresponded to a man (89.5%), between 61 and 70 years old (33.3%), retired (43.9%), being the tractor driver (45.6%). In most of the cases, death occurred in less than 24h after the accident. These fatalities arose mainly in May and October. Rollover in sloping land was the most common type of accident, and cranioencephalic, thoracic and abdominal traumatic injuries were the main cause of death. In 16.2% of the cases, blood alcohol concentration was above the lower limit established in our road traffic law (accidents, and the corresponding circumstances that contributed to the death. Many barriers remain about this matter, but the Portuguese government begin to design several laws to prevent this type of accidents. Future investigations should be performed to understand the real dimension of tractor accidents in Portugal, and to comprehend the efficiency of laws implemented by the government. Copyright © 2018

  18. The ultimate nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdus Salam, A.

    1988-01-01

    The estimated energy equivalent of Chernobyl explosion was the 1/150 th of the explosive energy equivalent of atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima; while the devastation that could be caused by the world's stock pile of nuclear weapons, could be equivalent to 160 millions of Chernobyl-like incidents. As known, the number of nuclear weapons is over 50,000 and 2000 nuclear weapons are sufficient to destroy the world. The Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents have been blamed on human factors but also the human element, particularly in the form of psychological stresses on those operating the nuclear weapons, could accidentally bring the world to a nuclear catastrophe. This opinion is encouraged by the London's Sunday Times magazine which gave a graphic description of life inside a nuclear submarine. So, to speak of nuclear reactor accidents and not of nuclear weapons is false security. (author)

  19. Accident diagnosis of the Angra-2 nuclear power plant based on intelligent real-time acquisition agents and a logical tree model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paiva, Gustavo V.; Schirru, Roberto, E-mail: gustavopaiva@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: schirru@lmp.ufrj.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-07-01

    This work aims to create a model and a prototype, using the Python language, which with the application of an Expert System uses production rules to analyze the data obtained in real time from the plant and help the operator to identify the occurrence of transients / accidents. In the event of a transient, the program alerts the operator and indicates which section of the Operation Manual should be consulted to bring the plant back to its normal state. The generic structure used to represent the knowledge of the Expert System was a Fault Tree and the data obtained from the plant was done through intelligent acquisition agents that transform the data obtained from the plant into Boolean values used in the Fault Tree, including the use of Fuzzy Logic. In order to test the program, a simplified model of the Almirante Alvaro Alberto 2 Nuclear Power Plant (Angra-2) manuals was used and with this model, simulations were performed to analyze the program's operation and if it leads to the expected results. The results of the tests presented a quick identification of the events and great accuracy, demonstrating the applicability of the model to the problem. (author)

  20. Accident diagnosis of the Angra-2 nuclear power plant based on intelligent real-time acquisition agents and a logical tree model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paiva, Gustavo V.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    This work aims to create a model and a prototype, using the Python language, which with the application of an Expert System uses production rules to analyze the data obtained in real time from the plant and help the operator to identify the occurrence of transients / accidents. In the event of a transient, the program alerts the operator and indicates which section of the Operation Manual should be consulted to bring the plant back to its normal state. The generic structure used to represent the knowledge of the Expert System was a Fault Tree and the data obtained from the plant was done through intelligent acquisition agents that transform the data obtained from the plant into Boolean values used in the Fault Tree, including the use of Fuzzy Logic. In order to test the program, a simplified model of the Almirante Alvaro Alberto 2 Nuclear Power Plant (Angra-2) manuals was used and with this model, simulations were performed to analyze the program's operation and if it leads to the expected results. The results of the tests presented a quick identification of the events and great accuracy, demonstrating the applicability of the model to the problem. (author)

  1. Treatment of whole-body radiation accident victims

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drum, D.E.; Rappeport, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses how whole-body radiation exposure incidents present a number of unique challenges. The acute, nonstochastic effects of high doses of radiation over 25 rads (0.25 Gy) delivered to humans is generally manifest in rather categorical fashion; depending on the dose, either the patient is largely unharmed functionally or he is seriously injured. Radiation initiates microchemical changes within a nanosecond time frame; there exists no specific therapy to stop or reverse the sequence of events that follow. Thus, the range for effective therapeutic intervention is rather small, between 150 to 1500 rad (1.5 to 15 Gy) for humans. Nevertheless, it is likely that a large uncomplicated exposure to as much as 750 rad (7.5 Gy) might be survivable without dramatic measures such as bone marrow transplantation. Review of the available information about past accidents shows that the majority of radiation accidents are mixed injuries

  2. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. SAMEX: A severe accident management support expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il

    2010-01-01

    A decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant is being developed which is aided by a severe accident risk database module and a severe accident management simulation module. The severe accident management support expert (SAMEX) system can provide the various types of diagnostic and predictive assistance based on the real-time plant specific safety parameters. It consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) severe accident risk data base module (SARDB), (b) risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD), (c) severe accident management simulation module (SAMS), and (d) on-line severe accident management guidance module (on-line SAMG). The modules are integrated into a code package that executes within a WINDOWS XP operating environment, using extensive user friendly graphics control. In Korea, the integrated approach of the decision support system is being carried out under the nuclear R and D program planned by the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST). An objective of the project is to develop the support system which can show a theoretical possibility. If the system is feasible, the project team will recommend the radiation protection technical support center of a national regulatory body to implement a plant specific system, which is applicable to a real accident, for the purpose of immediate and various diagnosis based on the given plant status information and of prediction of an expected accident progression under a severe accident situation.

  4. A retrospective analysis of survival outcomes for two different radiotherapy fractionation schedules given in the same overall time for limited stage small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettington, Catherine S.; Bryant, Guy; Hickey, Brigid; Tripcony, Lee; Pratt, Gary; Fay, Michael

    2013-01-01

    To compare survival outcomes for two fractionation schedules of thoracic radiotherapy, both given over 3 weeks, in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). At Radiation Oncology Mater Centre (ROMC) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), patients with LS-SCLC treated with curative intent are given radiotherapy (with concurrent chemotherapy) to a dose of either 40Gy in 15 fractions ('the 40Gy/15⧣group') or 45Gy in 30 fractions ('the 45Gy/30⧣group'). The choice largely depends on institutional preference. Both these schedules are given over 3 weeks, using daily and twice-daily fractionation respectively. The records of all such patients treated from January 2000 to July 2009 were retrospectively reviewed and survival outcomes between the two groups compared. Of 118 eligible patients, there were 38 patients in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 41 patients in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The median relapse-free survival time was 12 months in both groups. Median overall survival was 21 months (95% CI 2–37 months) in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 26 months (95% CI 1–48 months) in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The 5-year overall survival rates were 20% and 25%, respectively (P=0.24). On multivariate analysis, factors influencing overall survival were: whether prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was given (P=0.01) and whether salvage chemotherapy was given at the time of relapse (P=0.057). Given the small sample size, the potential for selection bias and the retrospective nature of our study it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the efficacy of hypofractionated thoracic radiotherapy compared with hyperfractionated accelerated thoracic radiotherapy however hypofractionated radiotherapy may result in equivalent relapse-free survival.

  5. The work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust.

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, R H; Cooper, S; Hayes, H R

    1988-01-01

    In 1983 an article was published in this Journal describing the work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Since that time many developments have taken place in the field of child accident prevention. There has been an increased recognition of the role of accidents and injuries in child health and the importance of accident prevention at an international, national, and local level. This has, in part, been a result of work undertaken by the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Much remains to be...

  6. Design features of ACR in severe accident mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, H.; Krishnan, V.S.; Santamaura, P.; Lekakh, B.; Blahnik, C.

    2007-01-01

    New reactor designs require the evaluation of design alternatives to reduce the radiological risk by preventing severe accidents or by limiting releases from the plant in the event of such accidents. The Advanced CANDU Reactor TM (ACR TM ) design has provisions to prevent and mitigate severe accidents. This paper describes key ACR design features for severe accident mitigation. It provides a high-level overview of the findings to date. Several design provisions have not yet been finalized or decided, but the designers are keenly aware of the SAM concepts and their requirements. The active heat sinks for 'vessels' (i.e., the fuel channels, the calandria vessel, the calandria end-shields and the calandria vault) are all amply capable of dissipating the severe accident heat loads. These heat sinks are designed to be operable under severe accident environmental conditions; however, their operability is yet to be confirmed by assessments. The active heat sinks for the various process vessels are 'backed up' by passive heat sinks (i.e., steaming plus water make-up from the RWS). The supply side of passive heat sinks is simple, rugged, and not vulnerable to failures of plant systems. The importance of the steam relief side is recognized, and the adequate relief capacity will be provided. The passive heat sinks will give the SAM more than 1 day (likely several days) to diagnose the accident and to establish the ultimate heat sinks. The spray system for containment pressure suppression is designed for high reliability and has ample capacity to ensure low containment leakage without external intervention, after which time alternative supply to the sprays can be brought on line manually. The sprays are backed up by the LACs which are assessed for operability following a severe accident. The strong ACR containment will provide a long time of completely passive protection for any severe accident at decay power. Its characteristics are not prone to catastrophic failures. The

  7. Investigation of Growth and Survival of Transplanted Plane and Pine Trees According to IBA Application, Tree Age, Transplanting Time and Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Etemadi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The major problems in transplanting the landscape trees are high level of mortality and low establishment rate of transplanted trees, especially in the first year. In order to achieve the best condition for successful transplanting of pine and plane trees in Isfahan landscape, the present study was carried out based on a completely randomized block design with four replicates and three treatments including transplanting method (balled and burlapped and bare root, tree age (immature and mature and IBA application (0 and 150 mg/L. Trees were transplanted during 2009 and 2010 in three times (dormant season, early and late growing season. Survival rate and Relative Growth Rate index based on tree height (RGRH and trunk diameter (RGRD were measured during the first and second years. Trees transplanted early in the growing season showed the most survival percentage during the two years, as compared to other transplanting dates. Survival of Balled and burlapped and immature transplanted trees was significantly greater than bare root or mature trees. The significant effect of age treatment was continued in the second year. IBA treatment had no effect on survival rate of the studied species. Balled and burlapped and immature transplanted pine trees also had higher RGRH and RGRD compared to bare root or mature trees. According to the results of this study, early growing season is the best time for transplanting pine and plane trees. Also, transplanting of immature trees using balled and burlapped method is recommended to increase the survival and establishment rate.

  8. Accident information needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-01-01

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information

  9. Accident information needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-12-31

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

  10. Accident information needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

    1992-01-01

    A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

  11. The effect of the time interval between diagnosis of muscle-invasive bladder cancer and radical cystectomy on staging and survival: A Netherlands Cancer Registry analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruins, H.M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Arends, T.J.; Heijden, A.G. van der; Witjes, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Data from single-center series suggest that a delay in time to radical cystectomy (RC) more than 3 months after diagnosis of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) is associated with pathological upstaging and decreased survival. However, limited data is available from population-based

  12. Severe accident phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jokiniemi, J.; Kilpi, K.; Lindholm, I.; Maekynen, J.; Pekkarinen, E.; Sairanen, R.; Silde, A.

    1995-02-01

    Severe accidents are nuclear reactor accidents in which the reactor core is substantially damaged. The report describes severe reactor accident phenomena and their significance for the safety of nuclear power plants. A comprehensive set of phenomena ranging from accident initiation to containment behaviour and containment integrity questions are covered. The report is based on expertise gained in the severe accident assessment projects conducted at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). (49 refs., 32 figs., 12 tabs.)

  13. The Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maqua, M.; Stueck, R.

    2012-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami hit the Japanese east coast, causing more than 15,000 fatalities. To this date, 3,000 people are still missing. The Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP was the nuclear installation that was most affected by the tsunami. The earthquake cut off the NPP from the national grid. About 45 minutes later, the tsunami flooded units 1-4 and led to core meltdown events with large releases for units 1, 2 and 3. Unit 4 had been in refuelling outage at that time and lost the cooling of the spent fuel pool for several days. Considerable hydrogen explosions occurred in units 1, 3 and 4. Shortly after the accident, TEPCO started to mitigate the consequences of the accident by providing external cooling to the reactors and by removing the radioactive debris from the site. Great emphasis was laid on effective radiation protection measures for the clean-up workers. Thus, up to now there has been no fatality due to the radiation caused by the Fukushima accident. The main steps of the accident sequences are described, taking into account the latest findings of investigations performed by TEPCO or on behalf of the regulatory body. The presentation focuses on the description of the status of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant and the future steps for cleaning-up the site. In the presentation, the major phases of the roadmap that TEPCO has developed for the clean-up are highlighted. The risks associated with the current plant status and the clean-up phases are described. Abstract the content of the manuscript in a few lines.

  14. Determinants of injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Tsz Leung; Jin, Di; Talley, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. PSA response to cabazitaxel is associated with improved progression-free survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: the non-interventional QoLiTime study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerer, Peter; Al-Batran, Salah-Eddin; Windemuth-Kieselbach, Christine; Keller, Martin; Hofheinz, Ralf-Dieter

    2018-03-01

    To evaluate the association between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and progression-free and overall survival in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with cabazitaxel. Men with mCRPC receiving cabazitaxel (25 mg/m 2 , every 3 weeks) plus oral prednis(ol)one (10 mg/day) were enrolled in the non-interventional, prospective QoLiTime study. Main outcome measures were progression-free survival and overall survival, in all patients and in those who showed a ≥ 50 or a ≥ 30% decrease in PSA relative to baseline after four cycles of cabazitaxel, as well as quality-of-life parameters. Of the 527 men (median age 72 years), 266 received ≥ 4 cycles of cabazitaxel and had PSA response data. After four cycles, 34.6% of men achieved a PSA decrease ≥ 50% and 49.6% a decrease ≥ 30%. Median progression-free survival was 7.7 (95% CI 6.2, 9.5) months, and overall survival was 19.5 (95% CI 16.0, 30.9) months, corresponding to 1-year event rates of 39.4 and 78.8%, respectively. Median progression-free survival was longer in PSA responders versus non-responders (15.7 vs 5.5 months at 50% cut-off; 15.7 vs 5.3 months for 30% cut-off; both P PSA response after four cycles of cabazitaxel is associated with improved progression-free survival in men with mCRPC treated with cabazitaxel plus prednis(ol)one.

  16. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinker, T.; Raymond, B.; Bijma, P.; Vereijken, A.; Ellen, E.D.

    2017-01-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and

  17. Learning from nuclear accident experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models, and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants, it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants. 10 references, 7 figures, 2 tables

  18. Time-of-Day Dependent Neuronal Injury After Ischemic Stroke: Implication of Circadian Clock Transcriptional Factor Bmal1 and Survival Kinase AKT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beker, Mustafa Caglar; Caglayan, Berrak; Yalcin, Esra; Caglayan, Ahmet Burak; Turkseven, Seyma; Gurel, Busra; Kelestemur, Taha; Sertel, Elif; Sahin, Zafer; Kutlu, Selim; Kilic, Ulkan; Baykal, Ahmet Tarik; Kilic, Ertugrul

    2018-03-01

    Occurrence of stroke cases displays a time-of-day variation in human. However, the mechanism linking circadian rhythm to the internal response mechanisms against pathophysiological events after ischemic stroke remained largely unknown. To this end, temporal changes in the susceptibility to ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury were investigated in mice in which the ischemic stroke induced at four different Zeitgeber time points with 6-h intervals (ZT0, ZT6, ZT12, and ZT18). Besides infarct volume and brain swelling, neuronal survival, apoptosis, ischemia, and circadian rhythm related proteins were examined using immunohistochemistry, Western blot, planar surface immune assay, and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tools. Here, we present evidence that midnight (ZT18; 24:00) I/R injury in mice resulted in significantly improved infarct volume, brain swelling, neurological deficit score, neuronal survival, and decreased apoptotic cell death compared with ischemia induced at other time points, which were associated with increased expressions of circadian proteins Bmal1, PerI, and Clock proteins and survival kinases AKT and Erk-1/2. Moreover, ribosomal protein S6, mTOR, and Bad were also significantly increased, while the levels of PRAS40, negative regulator of AKT and mTOR, and phosphorylated p53 were decreased at this time point compared to ZT0 (06:00). Furthermore, detailed proteomic analysis revealed significantly decreased CSKP, HBB-1/2, and HBA levels, while increased GNAZ, NEGR1, IMPCT, and PDE1B at midnight as compared with early morning. Our results indicate that nighttime I/R injury results in less severe neuronal damage, with increased neuronal survival, increased levels of survival kinases and circadian clock proteins, and also alters the circadian-related proteins.

  19. Use of bayesian operations for diagnosing accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K.M.; Jae, M.; Suh, K.Y.

    2005-01-01

    In complex systems, it is necessary to model a logical representation of the overall system interaction with respect to the individual subsystems. Operators are allowed to follow EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) when reactor tripped because of accidents. But, it's very difficult to diagnose accidents and find out appropriate procedures to mitigate current accidents in a given short time. Even if they diagnose accidents, it also has possibility to misdiagnose. TMI accident is a good example of operators' errors. Methodology using Influence Diagrams has been developed and applied for representing the dependency behaviors and uncertain behaviors of complex systems. An example to diagnose the accidents such as SLOCA and SGTR with similar symptoms has been introduced. From the constructed model, operators could diagnose accidents at any states of accidents. This model can offer the information about accidents with given symptoms. This model might help operators to diagnose correctly and rapidly. It might be very useful to support operators to reduce human error. Also, from this study, it is applicable to diagnose other accidents with similar symptoms and to analyze causes of reactor trip. (authors)

  20. The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

    2009-06-01

    We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

  1. Impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival and its change over time between 1973 and 2012 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng; Liu, Xu; Chen, Yu-Pei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Tang, Ling-Long; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2017-12-01

    The impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival outcomes and its change over time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) are unclear. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify patients diagnosed with NPC in the United States from 1973 to 2012. A primary comparison (married vs. unmarried) was implemented with 1:1 propensity score matching. Secondary comparisons were performed individually between three unmarried subgroups (single, separated/divorced, widowed) and married group. The effect of marital status on cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using univariate/multivariate analysis. Moreover, we investigated the change over time (1973-2012) in the effect of marital status on NPC survival. Married patients had better 5-year CSS/OS than unmarried patients (61.1% vs. 52.6%, P vs. 45.3%, P unmarried patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.35, P married was only detected in non-Hispanic white and Chinese American patients. Single, separated/divorced, and widowed patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (aHR = 1.37 and 1.37; 1.46 and 1.42; 1.43 and 1.48, respectively; all P married status. Single and widowed patients are regarded as high-risk population. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Effect of timing and duration of a single chest compression pause on short-term survival following prolonged ventricular fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Gregory P; Melnick, Sharon B; Walker, Robert G; Banville, Isabelle; Chapman, Fred W; Killingsworth, Cheryl R; Ideker, Raymond E

    2009-04-01

    Pauses during chest compressions are thought to have a detrimental effect on resuscitation outcome. The Guidelines 2005 have recently eliminated the post-defibrillation pause. Previous animal studies have shown that multiple pauses of increasing duration decrease resuscitation success. We investigated the effect of varying the characteristics of a single pause near defibrillation on resuscitation outcome. Part A: 48 swine were anesthetized, fibrillated for 7min and randomized. Chest compressions were initiated for 90s followed by defibrillation and then resumption of chest compressions. Four groups were studied-G2000: 40s pause beginning 20s before, and ending 20s after defibrillation, A1: a 20s pause just before defibrillation, A2: a 20s pause ending 30s prior to defibrillation, and group A3: a 10s pause ending 30s prior to defibrillation. Part B: 12 swine (Group B) were studied with a protocol identical to Part A but with no pause in chest compressions. Primary endpoint was survival to 4h. The survival rate was significantly higher for groups A1, A2, A3, and B (5/12, 7/12, 5/12, and 5/12 survived) than for the G2000 group (0/12, p<0.05). Survival did not differ significantly among groups A1, A2, A3, and B. These results suggest that the Guidelines 2005 recommendation to omit the post-shock pulse check and immediately resume chest compressions may be an important resuscitation protocol change. However, these results also suggest that clinical maneuvers further altering a single pre-shock chest compression pause provide no additional benefit.

  3. Effect of timing and duration of a single chest compression pause on short-term survival following prolonged ventricular fibrillation☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Gregory P.; Melnick, Sharon B.; Walker, Robert G.; Banville, Isabelle; Chapman, Fred W.; Killingsworth, Cheryl R.; Ideker, Raymond E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Pauses during chest compressions are thought to have a detrimental effect on resuscitation outcome. The Guidelines 2005 have recently eliminated the post-defibrillation pause. Previous animal studies have shown that multiple pauses of increasing duration decrease resuscitation success. We investigated the effect of varying the characteristics of a single pause near defibrillation on resuscitation outcome. Methods Part A: 48 swine were anesthetized, fibrillated for 7 min and randomized. Chest compressions were initiated for 90 s followed by defibrillation and then resumption of chest compressions. Four groups were studied—G2000: 40 s pause beginning 20 s before, and ending 20 s after defibrillation, A1: a 20 s pause just before defibrillation, A2: a 20 s pause ending 30 s prior to defibrillation, and group A3: a 10 s pause ending 30 s prior to defibrillation. Part B: 12 swine (Group B) were studied with a protocol identical to Part A but with no pause in chest compressions. Primary endpoint was survival to 4 h. Results The survival rate was significantly higher for groups A1, A2, A3, and B (5/12, 7/12, 5/12, and 5/12 survived) than for the G2000 group (0/12, p < 0.05). Survival did not differ significantly among groups A1, A2, A3, and B. Conclusions These results suggest that the Guidelines 2005 recommendation to omit the post-shock pulse check and immediately resume chest compressions may be an important resuscitation protocol change. However, these results also suggest that clinical maneuvers further altering a single pre-shock chest compression pause provide no additional benefit. PMID:19185411

  4. Nuclear accidents and protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biocanin, R.; Amidzic, B.

    2005-01-01

    The numerous threats are our cruel reality. There is a great arsenal of nuclear weapons. Nuclear terrorism and nuclear accidents are always possible, especially during the transport and handling different nuclear material. Terrorist organisation also goes for coming into the possession of the nuclear means. Specific and important problem is human radioactive contamination in using nuclear energy for peaceful and military purpose. So, realisation of the universal and united system of NBCD gives us a possibility by using the modern communication equipment and very effective mobile units to react in a real time and successfully perform monitoring, alarming, protection and decontamination. (author) [sr

  5. Epstein-Barr virus ensures B cell survival by uniquely modulating apoptosis at early and late times after infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Alexander M; Dai, Joanne; Bazot, Quentin; Patel, Luv; Nikitin, Pavel A; Djavadian, Reza; Winter, Peter S; Salinas, Cristina A; Barry, Ashley Perkins; Wood, Kris C; Johannsen, Eric C; Letai, Anthony; Allday, Martin J; Luftig, Micah A

    2017-04-20

    Latent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is causally linked to several human cancers. EBV expresses viral oncogenes that promote cell growth and inhibit the apoptotic response to uncontrolled proliferation. The EBV oncoprotein LMP1 constitutively activates NFκB and is critical for survival of EBV-immortalized B cells. However, during early infection EBV induces rapid B cell proliferation with low levels of LMP1 and little apoptosis. Therefore, we sought to define the mechanism of survival in the absence of LMP1/NFκB early after infection. We used BH3 profiling to query mitochondrial regulation of apoptosis and defined a transition from uninfected B cells (BCL-2) to early-infected (MCL-1/BCL-2) and immortalized cells (BFL-1). This dynamic change in B cell survival mechanisms is unique to virus-infected cells and relies on regulation of MCL-1 mitochondrial localization and BFL-1 transcription by the viral EBNA3A protein. This study defines a new role for EBNA3A in the suppression of apoptosis with implications for EBV lymphomagenesis.

  6. NPP Krsko Severe Accident Management Guidelines Implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basic, I.; Krajnc, B.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

    2002-01-01

    Severe Accident Management is a framework to identify and implement the Emergency Response Capabilities that can be used to prevent or mitigate severe accidents and their consequences. The USA NRC has indicated that the development of a licensee plant specific accident management program will be required in order to close out the severe accident regulatory issue (Ref. SECY-88-147). Generic Letter 88-20 ties the Accident management Program to IPE for each plant. The SECY-89-012 defines those actions taken during the course of an accident by the plant operating and technical staff to: 1) prevent core damage, 2) terminate the progress of core damage if it begins and retain the core within the reactor vessel, 3) maintain containment integrity as long as possible, and 4) minimize offsite releases. The subject of this paper is to document the severe accident management activities, which resulted in a plant specific Severe Accident Management Guidelines implementation. They have been developed based on the Krsko IPE (Individual Plant Examination) insights, Generic WOG SAMGs (Westinghouse Owners Group Severe Accident Management Guidances) and plant specific documents developed within this effort. Among the required plant specific actions the following are the most important ones: Identification and documentation of those Krsko plant specific severe accident management features (which also resulted from the IPE investigations). The development of the Krsko plant specific background documents (Severe Accident Plant Specific Strategies and SAMG Setpoint Calculation). Also, paper discusses effort done in the areas of NPP Krsko SAMG review (internal and external ), validation on Krsko Full Scope Simulator (Severe Accident sequences are simulated by MAAP4 in real time) and world 1st IAEA Review of Accident Management Programmes (RAMP). (author)

  7. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  8. On high-temperature reactor accident topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, J.; Kroeger, W.; Wolters, J.

    1981-01-01

    American and German risk studies for an HTGR and independent investigations of hypothetical accident sequences led to a fundamental understanding of the topology of HTGR accident sequences. The dominating importance of core heat-up accidents was confirmed and the initiating events were identified. Complications of core heat-up accidents by air or water ingress are of minor importance for the risk, whereas the long-term development of accidents during days and weeks plays an important role for the environmental impact. The risk caused by an HTGR at a German site cannot yet be determined exactly, because no modern German HTGR design has passed a licensing procedure. Cautious estimates show that risk will appear to be substantially smaller than the LWR risk. The main reasons are the considerably reduced release of fission procucts and the slow development of core heat-up accidents leaving much time for measures which reduce the risk. (orig.) [de

  9. Computer Based Road Accident Reconstruction Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Batista

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Since road accident analyses and reconstructions are increasinglybased on specific computer software for simulationof vehicle d1iving dynamics and collision dynamics, and forsimulation of a set of trial runs from which the model that bestdescribes a real event can be selected, the paper presents anoverview of some computer software and methods available toaccident reconstruction experts. Besides being time-saving,when properly used such computer software can provide moreauthentic and more trustworthy accident reconstruction, thereforepractical experiences while using computer software toolsfor road accident reconstruction obtained in the TransportSafety Laboratory at the Faculty for Maritime Studies andTransport of the University of Ljubljana are presented and discussed.This paper addresses also software technology for extractingmaximum information from the accident photo-documentationto support accident reconstruction based on the simulationsoftware, as well as the field work of reconstruction expertsor police on the road accident scene defined by this technology.

  10. Temporary jobs and the severity of workplace accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picchio, Matteo; van Ours, Jan C

    2017-06-01

    From the point of view of workplace safety, it is important to know whether having a temporary job has an effect on the severity of workplace accidents. We present an empirical analysis on the severity of workplace accidents by type of contract. We used microdata collected by the Italian national institute managing the mandatory insurance against work related accidents. We estimated linear models for a measure of the severity of the workplace accident. We controlled for time-invariant fixed effects at worker and firm levels to disentangle the impact of the type of contract from the spurious one induced by unobservables at worker and firm levels. Workers with a temporary contract, if subject to a workplace accident, were more likely to be confronted with severe injuries than permanent workers. When correcting the statistical analysis for injury under-reporting of temporary workers, we found that most of, but not all, the effect is driven by the under-reporting bias. The effect of temporary contracts on the injury severity survived the inclusion of worker and firm fixed effects and the correction for temporary workers' injury under-reporting. This, however, does not exclude the possibility that, within firms, the nature of the work may vary between different categories of workers. For example, temporary workers might be more likely to be assigned dangerous tasks because they might have less bargaining power. The findings will help in designing public policy effective in increasing temporary workers' safety at work and limiting their injury under-reporting. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Fatal accidents due to train surfing in Berlin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, H; Wirth, I; Geserick, G

    1998-06-08

    This study was undertaken for the purpose of analysing under the aspect of legal medicine, fatal accidents due to train surfing in the local transport system of Berlin (S-Bahn and underground). The period of investigation was from 1989 through 1995, with 41 train surfing accidents, among them 18 with fatal outcome. Evaluation included those 14 deaths which were forensically autopsied. It was based on autopsy records of Berlin-based university institutes (Humboldt University and Free University) as well as the Brandenburg State Institute of Legal Medicine. Also used were data obtained from the Berlin Transport Police Record. The casualties were aged between 13 and 25 years, most of them between 16 and 20. The male-female gender ratio was 13:1. Accidents occurred above all in the warmer season of the year, most of them between 20:00 h and midnight. More than 50% of all cases were affected by alcohol, but centrally acting medicaments or other addictive drugs were not noticed at all. Most of the fatal accidents occurred to users of the Berlin S-Bahn network. Older train models were the preferred surfing objects due to their structural peculiarities. Collision with close-to-track obstacles and slipping from the train proved to be the major sources of danger. An analysis of injuries revealed polytraumatisation but for one exception, with craniocerebral injuries being the most common and severest events. The longest survival time amounted to 24 h. As the psychosocial causes of high-risk behaviour of adolescents will hardly be controllable, withdrawal of technical, that is structural design possibilities appears to be the most important approach to prevention of accidents in the future. This demand is met by the new series of the Berlin S-Bahn. The model of the old series, suitable for surfing, still accounts for about 10% of the rolling stock and is to be decommissioned in 1998.

  12. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  13. Applicability of simplified methods to evaluate consequences of criticality accident using past accident data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Ken

    2003-01-01

    Applicability of four simplified methods to evaluate the consequences of criticality accident was investigated. Fissions in the initial burst and total fissions were evaluated using the simplified methods and those results were compared with the past accident data. The simplified methods give the number of fissions in the initial burst as a function of solution volume; however the accident data did not show such tendency. This would be caused by the lack of accident data for the initial burst with high accuracy. For total fissions, simplified almost reproduced the upper envelope of the accidents. However several accidents, which were beyond the applicable conditions, resulted in the larger total fissions than the evaluations. In particular, the Tokai-mura accident in 1999 gave in the largest total specific fissions, because the activation of cooling system brought the relatively high power for a long time. (author)

  14. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  15. Accidents in family forestry's firewood production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindroos, Ola; Aspman, Emma Wilhelmson; Lidestav, Gun; Neely, Gregory

    2008-05-01

    Firewood is commonly used around the world, but little is known about the work involved in its production and associated accidents. The objectives were to identify relationships between accidents and time exposure, workers' age and sex, equipment used and work activities in family forestry's firewood production. Data from a postal survey in Northern Sweden were compared to a database of injuries in the same region. Most accidents occurred to 50-69 year old men, who also worked most hours. No significant differences in sex and age were found between expected and recorded accident frequencies when calculated from total work hours; however, when calculated using numbers of active persons significant differences were found for both age and sex. Frequency of accidents per unit worked time was higher for machine involving activities than for other activities. Accidents that occurred when using wedge splitter machines were responsible for most of this overrepresentation. Fingers were the most commonly injured body parts. Mean accident rate for the equipment used was 87 accidents per million work hours, and the rate was highest for wedge splitters (122 accidents per million work hours). Exposure to elevated risks due to violation of safety procedures is discussed, as well as possible preventative measures.

  16. Instrumentation Performance during the TMI-2 Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rempe, Joy L.; Knudson, Darrell L.

    2013-06-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI- 2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focused upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this paper. As noted within this paper, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident program to evaluate sensor survivability status and data qualification, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this paper provides recommendations related to sensor survivability and the data evaluation process that could be implemented in upcoming Fukushima Daiichi recovery efforts. (authors)

  17. A race against time: can CO-OPs and provider start-ups survive in the health insurance marketplaces?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggbeer, Bill

    2015-12-01

    > The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups.

  18. The LDsub(50/30) and the survival time in whole-body gamma-irradiated conventional and germfree Minnesota miniature piglets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandel, L.; Travnicek, J.; Talafantova, M.; Zahradnickova, M.

    1980-01-01

    The median lethal exposure causing the death in 30 days after single whole-body gamma-irradiation (the LD 50/30) was found to be 2731 MBq (73.8 mC/kg) for conventional piglets, but 3226 MBq (87.2 mC/kg) for germ-free piglets both irradiated 14 days after birth. After lethal exposures, the survival time in germ-free piglets was prolonged for 7 days in comparison with conventional piglets. (author)

  19. Randomized, placebo controlled study of the effect of propentofylline on survival time and quality of life of cats with feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Y; Ritz, S; Weber, K; Sauter-Louis, C; Hartmann, K

    2011-01-01

    Currently there is no drug proven to effectively treat cats with feline infectious peritonitis (FIP). Propentofylline (PPF) can decrease vasculitis, and therefore prolong survival time in cats with FIP, and increase their quality of life. Twenty-three privately owned cats with FIP. Placebo-controlled double-blind trial. FIP was confirmed by histology or immunostaining of feline coronavirus (FCoV) antigen in effusion or tissue macrophages or both. The cats were randomly selected for treatment with either PPF or placebo. All cats received additional treatment with glucocorticoids, antibiotics, and low molecular weight heparin according to methods. There was no statistically significant difference in the survival time of cats treated with PPF (8 days, 95% CI 5.4-10.6) versus placebo (7.5 days, 95% CI 4.4-9.6). The median survival time of all cats was 8 days (4-36 days). There was neither a difference in quality of life (day 7, P = .892), in the amount of effusion (day 7, P = .710), the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) concentration (day 7, P = .355), nor in any other variable investigated in this study, including a complete blood count, and a small animal biochemistry profile. This study did not detect an effect of PPF on the survival time, the quality of life, or any clinical or laboratory parameter in cats with FIP. Therefore, PPF does not appear to be an effective treatment option in cats with a late stage of the disease FIP. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  20. Impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival and its change over time between 1973 and 2012 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a propensity score‐matched analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Cheng; Liu, Xu; Chen, Yu‐Pei; Mao, Yan‐Ping; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan‐Qun; Tang, Ling‐Long; Lin, Ai‐Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival outcomes and its change over time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) are unclear. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify patients diagnosed with NPC in the United States from 1973 to 2012. A primary comparison (married vs. unmarried) was implemented with 1:1 propensity score matching. Secondary comparisons were performed individually between three unmarried subgroups (sing...

  1. Primary school accident reporting in one education authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, A H A; Williams, W R; Sibert, J

    2002-02-01

    Studies have shown a correlation between increased accident rates and levels of deprivation in the community. School accident reporting is one area where an association might be expected. To investigate differences in primary school accident rates in deprived and more affluent wards, in an area managed by one education authority. Statistical analysis of accident form returns for 100 primary schools in one education authority in Wales over a two year period, in conjunction with visits to over one third of school sites. Accident report rates from schools in deprived wards were three times higher than those from schools in more affluent wards. School visits showed that this discrepancy was attributable primarily to differences in reporting procedures. One third of schools did not report accidents and approximately half did not keep records of minor accidents. The association between school accident report rates and deprivation in the community is complex. School accident data from local education authorities may be unreliable for most purposes of collection.

  2. Pattern of accident distribution in the telecommunications industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, P R; Sheppard, N J

    1980-05-01

    Examination of the accident records from the telecommunication industry covering some 100 000 engineers over a 12-month period showed that 25% of accidents resulting in more than three days' sick leave gave rise to back injuries. Handling accidents and falls accounted for 65% of three-day-plus accidents; handling accidents alone gave rise to 65% of back injuries. The absolute numbers of accidents have been compared with the total population of engineers to estimate the effects of age or occupation on levels of hazard; certain occupations constituting 33% of the engineers' population suffered 70% of all three-day-plus accidents. Accidents occurred most frequently in the group aged from 31 to 48 years. Other significant factors affecting the occurrence of accidents were time of year and duty experience of the workers.

  3. Nuclear accident dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The film presents statistical data on criticality accidents. It outlines past IAEA activities on criticality accident dosimetry and the technical documents that resulted from this work. The film furthermore illustrates an international comparison study on nuclear accident dosimetry conducted at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell, United Kingdom

  4. Nuclear accident dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1983-12-31

    The film presents statistical data on criticality accidents. It outlines past IAEA activities on criticality accident dosimetry and the technical documents that resulted from this work. The film furthermore illustrates an international comparison study on nuclear accident dosimetry conducted at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell, United Kingdom

  5. Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stromal cells suppress MHC class II expression on rat vascular endothelium and prolong survival time of cardiac allograft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Ying; Yun, Mark M; Han, Xia; Zhao, Ruidong; Zhou, Erxia; Yun, Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Background: Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stromal cells (UC-MSCs) have low immunogenicity and immune regulation. To investigate immunomodulatory effects of human UC-MSCs on MHC class II expression and allograft, we transplanted heart of transgenic rats with MHC class II expression on vascular endothelium. Methods: UC-MSCs were obtained from human umbilical cords and confirmed with flow cytometry analysis. Transgenic rat line was established using the construct of human MHC class II transactivator gene (CIITA) under mouse ICAM-2 promoter control. The induced MHC class II expression on transgenic rat vascular endothelial cells (VECs) was assessed with immunohistological staining. And the survival time of cardiac allograft was compared between the recipients with and without UC-MSC transfusion. Results: Flow cytometry confirmed that the human UC-MSCs were positive for CD29, CD44, CD73, CD90, CD105, CD271, and negative for CD34 and HLA-DR. Repeated infusion of human UC-MSCs reduced MHC class II expression on vascular endothelia of transplanted hearts, and increased survival time of allograft. The UC-MSCs increased regulatory cytokines IL10, transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 and suppressed proinflammatory cytokines IL2 and IFN-γ in vivo. The UC-MSC culture supernatant had similar effects on cytokine expression, and decreased lymphocyte proliferation in vitro. Conclusions: Repeated transfusion of the human UC-MSCs reduced MHC class II expression on vascular endothelia and prolonged the survival time of rat cardiac allograft. PMID:25126177

  6. Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

  7. Minimally invasive surgical approaches offer earlier time to adjuvant chemotherapy but not improved survival in resected pancreatic cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirkin, Katelin A; Greenleaf, Erin K; Hollenbeak, Christopher S; Wong, Joyce

    2018-05-01

    Pancreatic surgery encompasses complex operations with significant potential morbidity. Greater experience in minimally invasive surgery (MIS) has allowed resections to be performed laparoscopically and robotically. This study evaluates the impact of surgical approach in resected pancreatic cancer. The National Cancer Data Base (2010-2012) was reviewed for patients with stages 1-3 resected pancreatic carcinoma. Open approaches were compared to MIS. A sub-analysis was then performed comparing robotic and laparoscopic approaches. Of the 9047 patients evaluated, surgical approach was open in 7511 (83%), laparoscopic in 992 (11%), and robotic in 131 (1%). The laparoscopic and robotic conversion rate to open was 28% (n = 387) and 17% (n = 26), respectively. Compared to open, MIS was associated with more distal resections (13.5, 24.3%, respectively, p offered significantly shorter LOS in all types. Multivariate analysis demonstrated no survival benefit for any MIS approach relative to open (all, p > 0.05). When adjusted for patient, disease, and treatment characteristics, TTC was not an independent prognostic factor (HR 1.09, p = 0.084). MIS appears to offer comparable surgical oncologic benefit with improved LOS and shorter TTC. This effect, however, was not associated with improved survival.

  8. Social Familiarity Reduces Reaction Times and Enhances Survival of Group-Living Predatory Mites under the Risk of Predation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strodl, Markus Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Background Social familiarity, which is based on the ability to recognise familiar conspecific individuals following prior association, may affect all major life activities of group-living animals such as foraging, reproduction and anti-predator behaviours. A scarcely experimentally tested explanation why social familiarity is beneficial for group-living animals is provided by limited attention theory. Limited attention theory postulates that focusing on a given task, such as inspection and assessment of unfamiliar group members, has cognitive and associated physiological and behavioural costs with respect to the attention paid to other tasks, such as anti-predator vigilance and response. Accordingly, we hypothesised that social familiarity enhances the anti-predator success of group-living predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis, confronted with an intraguild predator, the predatory mite Amblyseius andersoni. Methodology/Principal Findings We videotaped and analysed the response of two P. persimilis larvae, held in familiar or unfamiliar pairs, to attacks by a gravid A. andersoni female, using the behavioural analyses software EthoVision Pro®. Familiar larvae were more frequently close together, reacted more quickly to predator attacks, survived more predator encounters and survived longer than unfamiliar larvae. Significance In line with the predictions of limited attention theory, we suggest that social familiarity improves anti-predator behaviours because it allows prey to shift attention to other tasks rather than group member assessment. PMID:22927997

  9. Social familiarity reduces reaction times and enhances survival of group-living predatory mites under the risk of predation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Andreas Strodl

    Full Text Available Social familiarity, which is based on the ability to recognise familiar conspecific individuals following prior association, may affect all major life activities of group-living animals such as foraging, reproduction and anti-predator behaviours. A scarcely experimentally tested explanation why social familiarity is beneficial for group-living animals is provided by limited attention theory. Limited attention theory postulates that focusing on a given task, such as inspection and assessment of unfamiliar group members, has cognitive and associated physiological and behavioural costs with respect to the attention paid to other tasks, such as anti-predator vigilance and response. Accordingly, we hypothesised that social familiarity enhances the anti-predator success of group-living predatory mites, Phytoseiulus persimilis, confronted with an intraguild predator, the predatory mite Amblyseius andersoni.We videotaped and analysed the response of two P. persimilis larvae, held in familiar or unfamiliar pairs, to attacks by a gravid A. andersoni female, using the behavioural analyses software EthoVision Pro®. Familiar larvae were more frequently close together, reacted more quickly to predator attacks, survived more predator encounters and survived longer than unfamiliar larvae.In line with the predictions of limited attention theory, we suggest that social familiarity improves anti-predator behaviours because it allows prey to shift attention to other tasks rather than group member assessment.

  10. Investigation of a fatal airplane crash: autopsy, computed tomography, and injury pattern analysis used to determine who was steering the plane at time of accident. A case report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Christian Bjerre; Nielsen, Trine Skov; Nagel, Lise Loft

    2012-01-01

    A fatal accident is reported in which a small single-engine light airplane crashed. The airplane carried two persons in the front seats, both of whom possessed valid pilot certificates. Both victims were subject to autopsy, including post-mortem computed tomography scanning (PMCT) prior...... to the autopsy. The autopsies showed massive destruction to the bodies of the two victims but did not identify any signs of acute or chronic medical conditions that could explain loss of control of the airplane. PMCT, histological examination, and forensic chemical analysis also failed to identify an explanation...... for the crash. A detailed review of an airplane identical to the crashed airplane was performed in collaboration with the Danish Accident Investigation Board and the Danish National Police, National Centre of Forensic Services. The injuries were described using the abbreviated injury scale, the injury severity...

  11. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Lim, Dong Hyuk

    2012-01-01

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  12. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Dong Hyuk [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  13. The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

    2018-03-01

    Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; PGPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

  14. Severe accident source term reassessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazzan, M.J.; Gardner, R.; Warman, E.A.; Jacobs, S.B.

    1987-01-01

    This paper summarizes the status of the reassessment of severe reactor accident source terms, which are defined as the quantity, type, and timing of fission product releases from such accidents. Concentration is on the major results and conclusions of analyses with modern methods for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs), and the special case of containment bypass. Some distinctions are drawn between analyses for PWRs and BWRs. In general, the more the matter is examined, the consequences, or probability of serious consequences, seem to be less. (author)

  15. Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

    2016-08-01

    To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily J; Power, Geraldine S; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-01-01

    Background Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. Objective To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods—weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)—and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. Methods We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Results Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. Conclusions IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during

  17. Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Emily J; Smith, Gary B; Power, Geraldine S; Harrison, David A; Nolan, Jerry; Soar, Jasmeet; Spearpoint, Ken; Gwinnutt, Carl; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2016-11-01

    Internationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) at night versus day, and at weekends versus weekdays, despite similar frequency of events. To describe IHCA demographics during three day/time periods-weekday daytime (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 19:59), weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 08:00 to 19:59) and night-time (Monday to Sunday, 20:00 to 07:59)-and to compare the associated rates of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for >20 min (ROSC>20 min) and survival to hospital discharge, adjusted for risk using previously developed NCAA risk models. To consider whether any observed difference could be attributed to differences in the case mix of patients resident in hospital and/or the administered care. We performed a prospectively defined analysis of NCAA data from 27 700 patients aged ≥16 years receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a resuscitation (2222) call in 146 UK acute hospitals. Risk-adjusted outcomes (OR (95% CI)) were worse (p20 min 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95); hospital survival 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80)), and night-time (ROSC>20 min 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76); hospital survival 0.58 (0.54 to 0.63)) compared with weekday daytime. The effects were stronger for non-shockable than shockable rhythms, but there was no significant interaction between day/time of arrest and age, or day/time of arrest and arrest location. While many daytime IHCAs involved procedures, restricting the analyses to IHCAs in medical admissions with an arrest location of ward produced results that are broadly in line with the primary analyses. IHCAs attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team during nights and weekends have substantially worse outcomes than during weekday daytimes. Organisational or care differences at

  18. Regulation Plans on Severe Accidents developed by KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyun Tae; Chung, Ku Young; Na, Han Bee

    2016-01-01

    Some nuclear power plants in Fukushima Daiichi site had lost their emergency reactor cooling function for long-time so the fuels inside the reactors were molten, and the integrity of containment was damaged. Therefore, large amount of radioactive material was released to environment. Because the social and economic effects of severe accidents are enormous, Korean Government already issued 'Severe Accident Policy' in 2001 which requires nuclear power plant operators to set up 'Quantitative Safety Goal', to do 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis', to install 'Severe Accident Countermeasures' and to make 'Severe Accident Management Plan'. After the Fukushima disaster, a Special Safety Inspection was performed for all operating nuclear power plants of Korea. The inspection team from industry, academia, and research institutes assessed Korean NPPs capabilities to cope with or respond to severe accidents and emergency situation caused by natural disasters such as a large earthquake or tsunami. As a result of the special inspection, about 50 action items were identified to increase the capability to cope with natural disaster and severe accidents. Nuclear Safety Act has been amended to require NPP operators to submit Accident Management Plant as part of operating license application. The KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT had first investigated oversea severe accident regulation trend before and after the Fukushima accident. Then, the TFT has developed regulation draft for severe accidents such as Severe accident Management Plans, the required design features for new NPPs to prevent severe accident against multiple failures and beyond-design external events, countermeasures to mitigate severe accident and to keep the integrity of containment, and assessment methodology on safety assessment plan and probabilistic safety assessment

  19. Regulation Plans on Severe Accidents developed by KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyun Tae; Chung, Ku Young; Na, Han Bee [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Some nuclear power plants in Fukushima Daiichi site had lost their emergency reactor cooling function for long-time so the fuels inside the reactors were molten, and the integrity of containment was damaged. Therefore, large amount of radioactive material was released to environment. Because the social and economic effects of severe accidents are enormous, Korean Government already issued 'Severe Accident Policy' in 2001 which requires nuclear power plant operators to set up 'Quantitative Safety Goal', to do 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis', to install 'Severe Accident Countermeasures' and to make 'Severe Accident Management Plan'. After the Fukushima disaster, a Special Safety Inspection was performed for all operating nuclear power plants of Korea. The inspection team from industry, academia, and research institutes assessed Korean NPPs capabilities to cope with or respond to severe accidents and emergency situation caused by natural disasters such as a large earthquake or tsunami. As a result of the special inspection, about 50 action items were identified to increase the capability to cope with natural disaster and severe accidents. Nuclear Safety Act has been amended to require NPP operators to submit Accident Management Plant as part of operating license application. The KINS Severe Accident Regulation Preparation TFT had first investigated oversea severe accident regulation trend before and after the Fukushima accident. Then, the TFT has developed regulation draft for severe accidents such as Severe accident Management Plans, the required design features for new NPPs to prevent severe accident against multiple failures and beyond-design external events, countermeasures to mitigate severe accident and to keep the integrity of containment, and assessment methodology on safety assessment plan and probabilistic safety assessment.

  20. Supervisor's accident investigation handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-02-01

    This pamphlet was prepared by the Environmental Health and Safety Department (EH and S) of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) to provide LBL supervisors with a handy reference to LBL's accident investigation program. The publication supplements the Accident and Emergencies section of LBL's Regulations and Procedures Manual, Pub. 201. The present guide discusses only accidents that are to be investigated by the supervisor. These accidents are classified as Type C by the Department of Energy (DOE) and include most occupational injuries and illnesses, government motor-vehicle accidents, and property damages of less than $50,000

  1. Severe accident management guidelines tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez Varela, Javier; Tanarro Onrubia, Augustin; Martinez Fanegas, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Severe Accident is addressed by means of a great number of documents such as guidelines, calculation aids and diagnostic trees. The response methodology often requires the use of several documents at the same time while Technical Support Centre members need to assess the appropriate set of equipment within the adequate mitigation strategies. In order to facilitate the response, TECNATOM has developed SAMG TOOL, initially named GGAS TOOL, which is an easy to use computer program that clearly improves and accelerates the severe accident management. The software is designed with powerful features that allow the users to focus on the decision-making process. Consequently, SAMG TOOL significantly improves the severe accident training, ensuring a better response under a real situation. The software is already installed in several Spanish Nuclear Power Plants and trainees claim that the methodology can be followed easier with it, especially because guidelines, calculation aids, equipment information and strategies availability can be accessed immediately (authors)

  2. Times of analgesic efficacy of two drugs in the treatment of patients with renal-ureteral colic compared by survival models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Reyes Velázquez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renourethral colic is a very painful clinical situation that requires a quick diagnosis and treatment. A study was done with patients who were administered two types of analgesics, and whose pain was measured through a visual analogue scale. Censored data results were obtained, considering the time when the pain disappeared as the random variable. Maximum likelihood and survival analysis give useful methods to estimate the distribution and parametric functions for this variable. This study will allow a more effective, timely, lower cost and suitable medical treatment for patients.

  3. Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G; Sargent, Daniel J; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2012-03-01

    Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. © 2011, The International Biometric Society No claim to original US government works.

  4. Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Diffuse vascular injury in fatal road traffic accident victims: its relationship to diffuse axonal injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittella, José E H; Gusmão, Sebastião N S

    2003-05-01

    The authors have reported a macro- and microscopic study of brain lesions in 120 victims of fatal road traffic accidents, independent of the survival time. Diffuse vascular injury (DVI) was found in 14 patients (11.7%). All patients with DVI died within 24 h after the accident. The 14 patients with DVI also showed severe (Grade 2 or 3) diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Since DVI is restricted to road traffic accidents and incompatible with life, the high frequency observed in our series could be explained by the fact that all 120 patients were victims of road traffic accidents, and 69.2% had died within 24 h after the accident. The association between DVI and severe DAI (Grades 2 and 3) suggests that both lesions depend on the same mechanism, with the degree of axonal and vascular damage being determined by the intensity of the head acceleration. Our results show a relationship between DVI and DAI that suggest there may be a spectrum or at least a continuum between these entities as distinct from DVI being a separate entity.

  6. Proceedings of the workshop on operator training for severe accident management and instrumentation capabilities during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This Workshop was organised in collaboration with Electricite de France (Service Etudes et Projets Thermiques et Nucleaires). There were 34 participants, representing thirteen OECD Member countries, the Russian Federation and the OECD/NEA. Almost half the participants represented utilities. The second largest group was regulatory authorities and their technical support organisations. Basically, the Workshop was a follow-up to the 1997 Second Specialist Meeting on Operator Aids for Severe Accident Management (SAMOA-2) [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(97)10 and 27] and to the 1992 Specialist Meeting on Instrumentation to Manage Severe Accidents [Reports NEA/CSNI/R(92)11 and (93)3]. It was aimed at sharing and comparing progress made and experience gained from these two meetings, emphasizing practical lessons learnt during training or incidents as well as feedback from instrumentation capability assessment. The objectives of the Workshop were therefore: - to exchange information on recent and current activities in the area of operator training for SAM, and lessons learnt during the management of real incidents ('operator' is defined hear as all personnel involved in SAM); - to compare capabilities and use of instrumentation available during severe accidents; - to monitor progress made; - to identify and discuss differences between approaches relevant to reactor safety; - and to make recommendations to the Working Group on the Analysis and Management of Accidents and the CSNI (GAMA). The meeting confirmed that only limited information is needed for making required decisions for SAM. In most cases existing instrumentation should be able to provide usable information. Additional instrumentation requirements may arise from particular accident management measures implemented in some plants. In any case, depending on the time frame where the instrumentation should be relied upon, it should be assessed whether it is likely to survive the harsh environmental conditions it will be exposed

  7. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  8. Interaction of defibrillation waveform with the time to defibrillation or the number of defibrillation attempts on survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Ono, Junko; Nagata, Takashi; Hasegawa, Manabu

    2018-01-01

    Early biphasic defibrillation is effective in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases. In the resuscitation of patients with OHCA, it is not clear how the defibrillation waveform interacts with the time to defibrillation to influence patient survival. The second, and any subsequent, shocks need to be administered by an on-line physician in Japan. Thus, we investigated the interaction between the defibrillation waveform and time to or the number of defibrillation on resuscitation outcomes. This prospective observational study used data for all OHCAs that occurred between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. To investigate the interaction effect between the defibrillation waveform and the time to defibrillation or the number of defibrillations on the return to spontaneous circulation (ROSC), 1-month survival, and cerebral performance category (CPC) (1, 2), we assessed the modifying effects of the defibrillation waveform and the time to or the number of defibrillation on additive scale (i.e., the relative excessive risk due to interaction, RERI) and multiplicative scale (i.e., ratio of odds ratios (ORs)). In total, 71,566 cases met the inclusion criteria. For the measure of interaction between the defibrillation waveform and the time to defibrillation, ratio of ORs for ROSC was 0.84 (0.75-0.94), implying that the effect of time to first defibrillation on ROSC was negatively modified by defibrillation waveform. For the interaction between the defibrillation waveform and the number of defibrillations, RERI and ratio of ORs for CPC (1, 2) was -0.25 (-0.47 to -0.06) and 0.79 (0.67-0.93), respectively. It is implied that the effect of number of defibrillation on CPC (1, 2) was negatively modified by defibrillation waveform. An increased number of defibrillations was associated with a decreased ROSC in the case of biphasic and monophasic defibrillation, while an increased number of defibrillations was related to an increased 1-month survival rate and CPC (1, 2) only in the case of

  9. Fukushima-Daiichi after the severe accident (estimation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otcenasek, Petr

    2011-01-01

    All facts about the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP and about the accident known at the time of publication are summarized and expected remedial actions and consequences of the accidents are deduced. The paper is structured as follows: (1) Accident initiation is known; (2) Logically inferred results; (3) Framework identification; (4) Survey; and (5) Economic and strategic impacts of the accident. Worldwide solidarity is mentioned in conclusion. (P.A.)

  10. Managing severe reactor accidents. A review and evaluation of our knowledge on reactor accidents and accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, Veine

    2002-11-01

    The report gives a review of the results from the last years research on severe reactor accidents, and an opinion on the possibilities to refine the present strategies for accident management in Swedish and Finnish BWRs. The following aspect of reactor accidents are the major themes of the study: 1. Early pressure relief from hydrogen production; 2. Recriticality in re-flooded, degraded core; 3. Melt-through; 4. Steam explosion after melt-through; 5. Coolability of the melt after after melt-through; 6. Hydrogen fire in the reactor containment; 7. Leaking containment; 8. Hydrogen fire in the reactor building; 9. Long-time developments after a severe accident; 10. Accidents during shutdown for overhaul; 11. Information need for remedial actions. Possibilities for improving the strategies in each of these areas are discussed. The review shows that our knowledge is sufficient in the areas 1, 2, 4, 6, 8. For the other areas, more research is needed

  11. Low level waste shipment accident lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rast, D.M.; Rowe, J.G.; Reichel, C.W.

    1995-01-01

    On October 1, 1994 a shipment of low-level waste from the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio, was involved in an accident near Rolla, Missouri. The accident did not result in the release of any radioactive material. The accident did generate important lessons learned primarily in the areas of driver and emergency response communications. The shipment was comprised of an International Standards Organization (ISO) container on a standard flatbed trailer. The accident caused the low-level waste package to separate from the trailer and come to rest on its top in the median. The impact of the container with the pavement and median inflicted relatively minor damage to the container. The damage was not substantial enough to cause failure of container integrity. The success of the package is attributable to the container design and the packaging procedures used at the Fernald Environmental Management Project for low-level waste shipments. Although the container survived the initial wreck, is was nearly breached when the first responders attempted to open the ISO container. Even though the container was clearly marked and the shipment documentation was technically correct, this information did not identify that the ISO container was the primary containment for the waste. The lessons learned from this accident have DOE complex wide applicability. This paper is intended to describe the accident, subsequent emergency response operations, and the lessons learned from this incident

  12. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  13. HLA-A, -B, and -DR zero-mismatched kidneys shipped to the University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1993-2006: superior graft survival despite longer preservation time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burlingham, William J; Muñoz del Rio, Alejandro; Lorentzen, David; Sollinger, Hans W; Pirsch, John D; Jankowska-Gan, Ewa; D'Alessandro, Anthony

    2010-08-15

    To determine the impact at a single center of the United Network for Organ Sharing-mandated sharing program for human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A/-B/-DR 0-mismatched (0MM) kidneys, we analyzed the results of 264 kidney transplants from 0MM distant donors between 1993 and 2006, with a follow-up through January 31, 2007. We compared these results with that of concurrent kidneys transplanted from HLA more than 0MM local donors and with shipped more than 0MM kidneys from "payback" donors. Despite a significantly longer preservation time, we found an 11% increase in 8-year graft survival (63% vs. 52%; P0MM donor kidneys. Graft survival of 0MM shipped kidneys at 8 years was significantly better in nonsensitized (or=20% panel reactive antibodies) recipients, who showed an early (2 years) but short-lived benefit. The benefit of receiving a HLA-A, -B, and -DR 0MM shipped kidney remained strong and statistically significant (0.71 relative risk of graft loss vs. local; POrgan Sharing policy restricting mandated sharing of 0MM kidneys to sensitized and pediatric recipients will give greater flexibility to the local organ procurement organization in allocating organs. However, the survival benefit to nonsensitized patients is real and long lasting and will be lost.

  14. Endogenous TSH levels at the time of 131I ablation do not influence ablation success, recurrence-free survival or differentiated thyroid cancer-related mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Riemann, Burkhard; Maeder, Uwe; Reiners, Christoph; Verburg, Frederik A.

    2016-01-01

    Based on a single older study it is established dogma that TSH levels should be ≥30 mU/l at the time of postoperative 131 I ablation in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. We sought to determine whether endogenous TSH levels, i.e. after levothyroxine withdrawal, at the time of ablation influence ablation success rates, recurrence-free survival and DTC-related mortality. A total of 1,873 patients without distant metastases referred for postoperative adjuvant 131 I therapy were retrospectively included from 1991 onwards. Successful ablation was defined as stimulated Tg <1 μg/l. Age, gender and the presence of lymph node metastases were independent determinants of TSH levels at the time of ablation. TSH levels were not significantly related to ablation success rates (p = 0.34), recurrence-free survival (p = 0.29) or DTC -elated mortality (p = 0.82), but established risk factors such as T-stage, lymph node metastases and age were. Ablation was successful in 230 of 275 patients (83.6 %) with TSH <30 mU/l and in 1,359 of 1,598 patients (85.0 %) with TSH ≥30 mU/l. The difference was not significant (p = 0.55). Of the whole group of 1,873 patients, 21 had recurrent disease. There were no significant differences in recurrence rates between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.16). Ten of the 1,873 patients died of DTC. There were no significant differences in DTC-specific survival between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.53). The precise endogenous TSH levels at the time of 131 I ablation are not related to the ablation success rates, recurrence free survival and DTC related mortality. The established dogma that TSH levels need to be ≥30 mU/l at the time of 131 I ablation can be discarded. (orig.)

  15. Endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation do not influence ablation success, recurrence-free survival or differentiated thyroid cancer-related mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrachimis, Alexis; Riemann, Burkhard [University Hospital Muenster, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Muenster (Germany); Maeder, Uwe; Reiners, Christoph [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); Verburg, Frederik A. [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); RWTH University Hospital Aachen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Aachen (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Based on a single older study it is established dogma that TSH levels should be ≥30 mU/l at the time of postoperative {sup 131}I ablation in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. We sought to determine whether endogenous TSH levels, i.e. after levothyroxine withdrawal, at the time of ablation influence ablation success rates, recurrence-free survival and DTC-related mortality. A total of 1,873 patients without distant metastases referred for postoperative adjuvant {sup 131}I therapy were retrospectively included from 1991 onwards. Successful ablation was defined as stimulated Tg <1 μg/l. Age, gender and the presence of lymph node metastases were independent determinants of TSH levels at the time of ablation. TSH levels were not significantly related to ablation success rates (p = 0.34), recurrence-free survival (p = 0.29) or DTC -elated mortality (p = 0.82), but established risk factors such as T-stage, lymph node metastases and age were. Ablation was successful in 230 of 275 patients (83.6 %) with TSH <30 mU/l and in 1,359 of 1,598 patients (85.0 %) with TSH ≥30 mU/l. The difference was not significant (p = 0.55). Of the whole group of 1,873 patients, 21 had recurrent disease. There were no significant differences in recurrence rates between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.16). Ten of the 1,873 patients died of DTC. There were no significant differences in DTC-specific survival between patients with TSH <30 mU/l and TSH ≥30 mU/l (p = 0.53). The precise endogenous TSH levels at the time of {sup 131}I ablation are not related to the ablation success rates, recurrence free survival and DTC related mortality. The established dogma that TSH levels need to be ≥30 mU/l at the time of {sup 131}I ablation can be discarded. (orig.)

  16. Investigation of Qom Rural Area Water Network Accident in 2010 and Minimization Approaches of Accident Frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Jafari Mansoorian

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study : Accidents in water networks can lead to increase the uncounted water, costs of repair, maintenance, restoration and enter water contaminants to water network. The aim of this study is to survey the accidents of Qom rural water network and choose the right approaches to reduce the number of accidents. Materials & Methods: In this cross-sectional study, four sector of Qom province (Markazi, Dastjerd, Kahak and Qahan, were assessed over a period of 8 months (July – January 2010. This study was conducted through questionnaire of Ministry of Energy. Results: The total number of accidents was 763. The highest number of accidents in the four sectors was related to Markazi sector with 228 accidents. According to the time of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to September (19.7% and November (6.8%, respectively. According to the location of the accident on network, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to distribution network (64% and connections (17.5% and transmission pipe (18.34%, respectively. According to the type of the accident, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to breaking (47.8% and gasket failure (1.2%, respectively. Considering with the pipes’ material, the highest and lowest number of accident was related to polyethylene pipes (93% and steel and cast iron pipes (0.5%, 0.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Due to the high break rate of Polyethylene pipes, it is recommended to be placed in priority of leak detection and rehabilitation.   .

  17. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang Il

    2011-01-01

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  18. [Retrospective analysis of 44 childhood drowning accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brüning, Caroline; Siekmeyer, Werner; Siekmeyer, Manuela; Merkenschlager, Andreas; Kiess, Wieland

    2010-07-01

    Worldwide, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional death and the leading cause of cardiovascular failure for children [1-3]. The number of near-drownings, where the incident is survived for at least 24 hours, is assumed to be four times as high [5]. In the years 1994 until 2008 there were 44 cases of drowning treated at the children's department of the University of Leipzig. This number shows that even in a medical centre drowning incidents are only occasional incidents. Therefore it is important to know the sequelae and handlings to be able to react in case of an emergency. A total of 44 children suffering a drowning accident within the last 48 hours who were treated during the period of 01.01.1994 through 30.06.2008 at the Children's Centre at the University of Leipzig. A retrospective analysis using a structured questionnaire was done. Social demographic data, accident progress, clinical results and progress as well as outcome of the cases were investigated. During the analysed period in the median three children were treated each year after drowning incidents. Clustering in the summer and winter months and on the weekends was recognizable. The median age was 3.33 years and the group of high risk were children aged 1-3 years, especially boys. Sixty percent of the children came from stable social backgrounds. Half of the children suffered from drowning in created swimming pools or ponds, the rest in natural waters, public pools and sources of water in the household. The median submersion lasted 2 minutes. Correlation of submersions below 1 minute with a good, and submersions above 10 minutes with a negative outcome was shown. A Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 3 points (n = 15) and pupils without light reaction (n = 14) were associated with a lethal outcome or residual neurological deficits. Looking at the laboratory values, correlation between severe acidotic pH-values with a very low base excess, high blood sugar as well as high lactate values and a

  19. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  20. Mesenchymal stem cells increase skin graft survival time and up-regulate PD-L1 expression in splenocytes of mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moravej, Ali; Geramizadeh, Bita; Azarpira, Negar; Zarnani, Amir-Hassan; Yaghobi, Ramin; Kalani, Mehdi; Khosravi, Maryam; Kouhpayeh, Amin; Karimi, Mohammad-Hossein

    2017-02-01

    Recently, mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have gained considerable interests as hopeful therapeutic cells in transplantation due to their immunoregulatory functions. But exact mechanisms underlying MSCs immunoregulatory function is not fully understood. Herein, in addition to investigate the ability of MSCs to prolong graft survival time, the effects of them on the expression of PD-L1 and IDO immunomodulatory molecules in splenocytes of skin graft recipient mice was clarified. To achieve this goal, full-thickness skins were transplanted from C57BL/6 to BALB/c mice. MSCs were isolated from bone marrow of BALB/c mice and injected to the recipient mice. Skin graft survival was monitored daily to determine graft rejection time. On days 2, 5 and 10 post skin transplantation, serum cytokine levels and expression of PD-L1 and IDO mRNA and protein in the splenocytes of recipient mice were evaluated. The results showed that administration of MSCs prolonged skin graft survival time from 11 to 14 days. On days 2 and 5 post transplantation, splenocytes PD-L1 expression and IL-10 serum level in MSCs treated mice were higher than those in the controls, while IL-2 and IFN-γ levels were lower. Rejection in MSCs treated mice was accompanied by an increase in IL-2 and IFN-γ, and decrease in PD-L1 expression and IL-10 level. No difference in the expression of IDO between MSCs treated mice and controls was observed. In conclusion, we found that one of the mechanisms underlying MSCs immunomodulatory function could be up-regulating PD-L1 expression. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Immunological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The Importance of Bloodstain Pattern Analysis in the Investigation of Road Traffic Accidents: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younis M. Albalooshi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bloodstain pattern analysis has become a field of specialization in Forensic sciences and plays an important role in the reconstruction of events at a crime scene. Research, books, and articles have been published on the analysis and interpretation of bloodstain patterns We present a case study of a road traffic accident in which bloodstain pattern analysis helped us to solve the discrepancy between reports produced by forensic examiners and by the forensic biology department. The case was of a 22-year-old man who died immediately and a 31- year-old woman who survived a road traffic accident. They were both found outside their overturned car and it was impossible to ascertain from initial observations which of the victims was driving the car at the time of the accident. An external examination of the man revealed multiple injuries, and the cause of his death was severe brain injury. The woman survived with a fracture of the forearm, dislocated clavicle bone, and other minor injuries. After initial examination of the car and based on the pattern of injuries the deceased received, forensic examiner concluded that the man was the driving the car at the time of accident. On the other hand, the forensic DNA analysis of bloodstains obtained from the driver's seat matched that of the woman, suggesting that she was the driver. This apparent discrepancy directed the forensic examiner to carry out a bloodstain pattern analysis on the driver's seat. The bloodstain pattern analysis helped resolve the discrepancy and enabled the investigators to identify the driver correctly. This case report emphasizes the importance of bloodstain pattern analysis in the reconstruction of cases involving road traffic accidents.

  2. TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H; Sekiya, N; Masutani, Y; Sakumi, A; Mukasa, A; Nakagawa, K

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyo Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R 2 between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R 2 was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core

  3. Developing a knowledge base for the management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Jenkins, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    Prior to the accident at Three Mile Island, little attention was given to the development of procedures for the management of severe accidents, that is, accidents in which the reactor core is damaged. Since TMI, however, significant effort has been devoted to developing strategies for severe accident management. At the same time, the potential application of artificial intelligence techniques, particularly expert systems, to complex decision-making tasks such as accident diagnosis and response has received considerable attention. The need to develop strategies for accident management suggests that a computerized knowledge base such as used by an expert system could be developed to collect and organize knowledge for severe accident management. This paper suggests a general method which could be used to develop such a knowledge base, and how it could be used to enhance accident management capabilities

  4. [Implementation of safety devices: biological accident prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán Gómez, M Teresa; Sol Vidiella, Josep; Castellà Castellà, Manel; Castells Bo, Carolina; Losada Pla, Nuria; Espuny, Javier Lluís

    2010-04-01

    Accidental exposures to blood and biological material were the most frequent and potentially serious accidents in healthcare workers, reported in the Prevention of Occupational Risks Unit within 2002. Evaluate the biological percutaneous accidents decrease after a progressive introduction of safety devices. Biological accidents produced between 2.002 and 2.006 were analyzed and reported by the injured healthcare workers to the Level 2b Hospital Prevention of Occupational Risk Unit with 238 beds and 750 employees. The key of the study was the safety devices (peripheral i.v. catheter, needleless i.v. access device and capillary blood collection lancet). Within 2002, 54 percutaneous biological accidents were registered and 19 in 2006, that represents a 64.8% decreased. There has been no safety devices accident reported involving these material. Accidents registered during the implantation period occurred because safety devices were not used at that time. Safety devices have proven to be effective in reducing needle stick percutaneous accidents, so that they are a good choice in the primary prevention of biological accidents contact.

  5. The Chernobyl accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  6. Radiation, accidents, society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    This book is meant to be used as a reference book for information officers at the event of a nuclear accident. The main part is edited in alphabetical order to facilitate use under stress. The book gives a short review of the health risks of radiation, and descriptions of accidents that have occured. The index words that have been chosen for the main part of the book have been selected due to experiences in connection with incidents and accidents. (L.E.)

  7. Reactivity insertion accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, J.M.L.; Nakata, H.; Yorihaz, H.

    1990-04-01

    The correct prediction of postulated accidents is the fundamental requirement for the reactor licensing procedures. Accident sequences and severity of their consequences depend upon the analysis which rely on analytical tools which must be validated against known experimental results. Present work presents a systematic approach to analyse and estimate the reactivity insertion accident sequences. The methodology is based on the CINETHICA code which solves the point-kinetics/thermohydraulic coupled equations with weighted temperature feedback. Comparison against SPERT experimental results shows good agreement for the step insertion accidents. (author) [pt

  8. Nuclear accidents and epidemiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    A consultation on epidemiology related to the Chernobyl accident was held in Copenhagen in May 1987 as a basis for concerted action. This was followed by a joint IAEA/WHO workshop in Vienna, which reviewed appropriate methodologies for possible long-term effects of radiation following nuclear accidents. The reports of these two meetings are included in this volume, and cover the subjects: 1) Epidemiology related to the Chernobyl nuclear accident. 2) Appropriate methodologies for studying possible long-term effects of radiation on individuals exposed in a nuclear accident. Figs and tabs

  9. Relationship Between Radiation Treatment Time and Overall Survival After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Head-and-Neck Carcinoma: A Subset Analysis of TAX 324

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sher, David J.; Posner, Marshall R.; Tishler, Roy B.; Sarlis, Nicholas J.; Haddad, Robert I.; Holupka, Edward J.; Devlin, Phillip M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). Methods and Materials: TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of ≥ 70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary (≤ 8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Results: A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p = 0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p = 0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. Conclusions: In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential

  10. Relationship Between Radiation Treatment Time and Overall Survival After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Head-and-Neck Carcinoma: A Subset Analysis of TAX 324

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sher, David J., E-mail: dsher@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Posner, Marshall R. [Division of Hematology/Oncology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY (United States); Tishler, Roy B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Sarlis, Nicholas J. [Sanofi-Aventis US, Bridgewater, NJ (United States); Haddad, Robert I. [Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Holupka, Edward J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (Israel); Devlin, Phillip M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Purpose: To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). Methods and Materials: TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of {>=} 70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary ({<=} 8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). Results: A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p = 0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p = 0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. Conclusions: In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential

  11. Relationship between radiation treatment time and overall survival after induction chemotherapy for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma: a subset analysis of TAX 324.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sher, David J; Posner, Marshall R; Tishler, Roy B; Sarlis, Nicholas J; Haddad, Robert I; Holupka, Edward J; Devlin, Phillip M

    2011-12-01

    To analyze the relationship between overall survival (OS) and radiation treatment time (RTT) and overall treatment time (OTT) in a well-described sequential therapy paradigm for locally advanced head-and-neck carcinoma (LAHNC). TAX 324 is a Phase III study comparing TPF (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil) with PF (cisplatin and fluorouracil) induction chemotherapy (IC) in LAHNC patients; both arms were followed by carboplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Prospective radiotherapy quality assurance was performed. This analysis includes all patients who received three cycles of IC and a radiation dose of ≥70 Gy. Radiotherapy treatment time was analyzed as binary (≤8 weeks vs. longer) and continuous (number of days beyond 8 weeks) functions. The primary analysis assessed the relationship between RTT, OTT, and OS, and the secondary analysis explored the association between treatment times and locoregional recurrence (LRR). A total of 333 (of 501) TAX 324 patients met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis. There were no significant differences between the treatment arms in baseline or treatment characteristics. On multivariable analysis, PF IC, World Health Organization performance status of 1, non-oropharynx site, T3/4 stage, N3 status, and prolonged RTT (hazard ratio 1.63, p=0.006) were associated with significantly inferior survival. Performance status, T3/4 disease, and prolonged RTT (odds ratio 1.68, p=0.047) were independently and negatively related to LRR on multivariable analysis, whereas PF was not. Overall treatment time was not independently associated with either OS or LRR. In this secondary analysis of the TAX 324 trial, TPF IC remains superior to PF IC after controlling for radiotherapy delivery time. Even with optimal IC and concurrent chemotherapy, a non-prolonged RTT is a crucial determinant of treatment success. Appropriate delivery of radiotherapy after IC remains essential for optimizing OS in LAHNC. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc

  12. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, S. J.; Choi, B. H.; Jung, S. Y.; Rim, Chun T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  13. Highly Reliable Power and Communication System for Essential Instruments under a Severe Accident of NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, S. J.; Choi, B. H.; Jung, S. Y.; Rim, Chun T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this paper, three survivable strategies to overcome the problems listed above are proposed for the essential instruments under the severe accident of NPPs. First, wire/wireless multi power systems are adopted to the essential instruments for continuous power supply. Second, wire/wireless communication systems are proposed for reliable transmission of measuring information among instruments and operators. Third, a physical protection system such as a harness and a heat isolation box is introduced to ensure operable conditions for the proposed systems. In this paper, a highly reliable strategy, which consists of wire/wireless multi power and communication systems and physical protection system is proposed to ensure the survival of the essential instruments under harsh external conditions. The wire/wireless multi power and communication systems are designed to transfer power and data in spite of the failure of conventional wired systems. The physical protection system provides operable environments to the instruments. Therefore, the proposed system can be considered as a candidate of practical and urgent remedy for NPPs under the severe accident. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, survivability of essential instruments has been emphasized for immediate and accurate response. The essential instruments can measure environment conditions such as temperature, pressure, radioactivity and corium behavior inside nuclear power plants (NPPs) under a severe accident. Access to the inside of NPPs is restricted to human beings because of hazardous environment such as high radioactivity, high temperature and high pressure. Thus, monitoring the inside of NPPs is necessary for avoiding damage from the severe accident. Even though there were a number of instruments in Fukushima Daiichi NPP, they failed to obtain exact monitoring information. According to the details of the Fukushima nuclear accident, following problems can be counted as strong candidates of this instruments

  14. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  15. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  16. Effect of packaging and storage time on survival of Listeria monocytogenes on kippered beef steak and turkey tenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uppal, Kamaldeep K; Getty, Kelly J K; Boyle, Elizabeth A E; Harper, Nigel M; Lobaton-Sulabo, April Shayne S; Barry, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    The objective of our study was to determine effect of packaging method and storage time on reducing Listeria monocytogenes in shelf-stable meat snacks. Commercially available kippered beef steak strips and turkey tenders were dipped into a 5-strain L. monocytogenes cocktail, and dried at 23 °C until a water activity of 0.80 was achieved. Inoculated samples were packaged with 4 treatments: (1) vacuum, (2) nitrogen flushed with oxygen scavenger, (3) heat sealed with oxygen scavenger, and (4) heat sealed without oxygen scavenger. Samples were stored at 23 °C and evaluated for L. monocytogenes levels at 0, 24, 48, and 72 h. Initial levels (time 0) of L. monocytogenes were approximately 5.7 log CFU/cm² for steak and tenders. After 24 h of storage time, a 1 log CFU/cm² reduction of L. monocytogenes was observed for turkey tenders for all packaging treatments. After 48 h, turkey tenders showed >1 log CFU/cm² reduction of L. monocytogenes for all packaging treatments except for vacuum, where only 0.9 log CFU/cm² reduction was observed. After 72 h, reductions for all packaging treatments for turkey tenders ranged from 1.5 to 2.4 log CFU/cm². For kippered beef steak, there was no interaction between the packaging treatments and all storage times (P > 0.05) whereas, time was different (P packaging treatments and a 2.1 log CFU/ cm² L. monocytogenes reduction at 72 h of storage time. Processors of kippered beef steak and turkey tenders could use a combination of vacuum or nitrogen-flushing or heat sealed with an oxygen scavenger packaging methods and a holding time of 24 h prior to shipping to reduce potential L. monocytogenes numbers by ≥1 log. However, processors should be encouraged to hold packaged product a minimum of 72 h to enhance the margin of safety for L. monocytogenes control. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®

  17. Intermedin A, a New Labdane Diterpene Isolated from Alpinia intermedia, Prolonged the Survival Time of P-388D1 Tumor-Bearing CDF1 Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lih-Geeng; Su, Pei-Jung; Tsai, Po-Wei; Yang, Ling-Ling; Wang, Ching-Chiung

    2017-01-01

    Eight ethanolic extracts of indigenous Taiwanese plants of the genus Alpinia were tested for tumor cytotoxicity against AGS, Hep G2, HeLa, KB, and HL-60 cells. Among the 50 % and 95 % EtOH extracts of eight Alpinia species, the cytotoxic effects of Alpinia intermedia leaves were the strongest. When the leaf extract of A. intermedia was partitioned using n -hexane and aqueous solvents, the n -hexane layer showed a greater cytotoxic effect and could prolong the survival time of P-388D 1 tumor-bearing CDF1 mice. Two new labdane diterpene derivatives, intermedin A ( 1 ) and intermedin B ( 2 ), and coronarin E ( 3 ) were isolated from the n -hexane layer of A. intermedia . Intermedin A induced apoptosis in HL-60 cells at 30 µg/mL and significantly prolonged the survival time of P-388D 1 tumor-bearing CDF 1 mice by 48.7 % at 20 mg/kg of body weight. We suggest that intermedin A is a major compound of A. intermedia and has a cytotoxic effect on HL-60 and P-388D 1 cells. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  18. Effects of Oral Administration of Fucoidan Extracted from Cladosiphon okamuranus on Tumor Growth and Survival Time in a Tumor-Bearing Mouse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiharu Okamoto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated the anti-tumor activities of the oral administration of fucoidan extracted from Cladosiphon okamuranus using a tumor (colon 26-bearing mouse model. The materials used included low-molecular-weight fucoidan (LMWF: 6.5–40 kDa, intermediate-molecular-weight fucoidan (IMWF: 110–138 kDa and high-molecular-weight fucoidan (HMWF: 300–330 kDa. The IMWF group showed significantly suppressed tumor growth. The LMWF and HMWF groups showed significantly increased survival times compared with that observed in the control group (mice fed a fucoidan-free diet. The median survival times in the control, LMWF, IMWF and HMWF groups were 23, 46, 40 and 43 days, respectively. It was also found that oral administration of fucoidan increased the population of natural killer cells in the spleen. Furthermore, from the results of the experiment using Myd-88 knockout mice, it was found that these effects are related to gut immunity. These results suggest that fucoidan is a candidate anti-tumor functional food.

  19. Determination of transfer factors and effective half-times in several domestic animals for cesium 137 from the Chernobyl reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henrich, E.; Schoener, W.

    1987-01-01

    In the wake of the Chernobyl accident contaminated fodder-hey and grass has been fed to cows, bulls, calves, lambs and swine (fed with whey). The problem was to decide if or not the animals could be slaughtered with confidence that their meat had contaminations below the legal limits. On the one hand, transfer factors fodder-to-meat and fodder-to-milk as well as the efficiency of radioactivity reducing additives had to be determined. On the other hand the correlation of live-animals measurements with the meat contamination was investigated. The correlation was satisfactory except with swine. The high-resolution Ge detectors have strong advantages as compared to Na detectors, though too expensive for general applications in slaughter-houses. 10 refs., 14 figs., 12 tabs. (qui)

  20. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Casal Fàbrega, Joaquim; Darbra Roman, Rosa Maria

    2010-01-01

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes a...

  1. Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

    2012-01-01

    This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national

  2. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  3. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  4. Chernobyl accident and Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    The report describes the Chernobyl accident and its consequences for Denmark in particular. It was commissioned by The Secretary of State for the Environment. Volume 2 contains copies of original documents issued by Danish authorities during the first accident phase and afterwards. Evaluations, monitoring data, press releases, legislation acts etc. are included. (author)

  5. Criticality accident in Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, A.R. de.

    1984-01-01

    A recent criticality type accident, ocurred in Argetina, is commented. Considerations about the nature of the facility where this accident took place, its genesis, type of operation carried out on the day of the event, and the medical aspects involved are done. (Author) [pt

  6. Chernobyl accident and Danmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    The report describes the Chernobyl accident and its consequences for Denmark in particular. It was commissioned by the Secretary of State for the Environment. Volume 1 contains copies of original documents issued by Danish authorities during the first accident phase and afterwards. Evaluations, monitoring data, press releases, legislation acts etc. are included. (author)

  7. Communication and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the

  8. Chapter 6: Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2018-04-01

    Th chapter 6 presents the accidents of: 1) Stimos (Italy - May, 1975); 2) San Salvador (El Salvador - February 5, 1989); 3) Soreq (Israel - June 21, 1990); 4) Nesvizh (Belarus - October 26, 1991); 5) Illinois (USA - February, 1965); 6)Maryland (EUA - December 11, 1991); 7)Hanoi (Vietnam -November 17, 1992); 8)Fleurus (Belgium - March 11, 2006) and final remarks on accidents.

  9. Anemia in chronic renal failure. Ferrokinetic, erythrocytes-survival time and enzymes of erythrocytes on chronic dialysed patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junkers, K; Jontofson, R; Meuret, G; Blume, K G; Heinze, V [Freie Univ. Berlin (F.R. Germany). Nuklearmedizinische Abt.; Freiburg Univ. (F.R. Germany). Nuklearmedizinische Abt.; Freiburg Univ. (F.R. Germany). Medizinische Poliklinik)

    1975-12-01

    Radio-iron utilization was nearly normal in these patients, only bilateral nephrectomized patients showed a reduced radio-iron utilization. Red blood half-life span was shortened in all patients, well corresponding to the degree of anemia. Parameters of erythropoesis like plasma iron clearance, bone marrow transit time, erythron iron turnover, non-erythron iron turnover and hemolysis iron turnover failed to quantitate disorders of red blood cell regeneration in these patients. No defect in red blood cell enzyme activity could be demonstrated. Enzymes of glycolysis were increased corresponding to the reduced erythrocyte half-life span.

  10. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-01-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers...... was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number...... of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved...

  11. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Radiological accidents in medical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas Herrera, Juan

    2012-01-01

    Different radiological accidents that may occur in medical practice are shown. The following topics are focused: accident statistics for medical exposure, accidental medical exposures, radiotherapy accidents and potential accidental scenarios [es

  13. Chemical considerations in severe accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinauskas, A.P.; Kress, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study presented the first systematic attempt to include fission product physicochemical effects in the determination of expected consequences of hypothetical nuclear reactor power plant accidents. At the time, however, the data base was sparse, and the treatment of fission product behavior was not entirely consistent or accurate. Considerable research has since been performed to identify and understand chemical phenomena that can occur in the course of a nuclear reactor accident, and how these phenomena affect fission product behavior. In this report, the current status of our understanding of the chemistry of fission products in severe core damage accidents is summarized and contrasted with that of the Reactor Safety Study

  14. The Art of Creating Attractive Consumer Experiences at the Right Time: Skills Marketers Will Need to Survive and Thrive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lemon Katherine N.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available New technologies have made today’s marketing faster, more mobile, more location-based, more digital, more virtual, and more automatized than ever. In this new world, marketers need to be “real-time relevant” – to gain awareness, to change perceptions and to spur action. They need to have their content in the right channel, format, time and context – from a consumer’s perspective. Only then do they at least have a chance of the consumer attending to the information and being influenced by it. In such an environment new skills and competences are required. The amount of available data has virtually exploded. To gain any perspective or apparent “control” in these environments, successful managers must embrace the complexity and learn to analyze, integrate and interpret all this data. A critical skill for marketers will be to identify the metrics that best reflect the desired outcomes of the organization and that sufficiently reflect specific indicators of critical processes. Furthermore, insights from other disciplines such as architecture, design, information-processing, biology or engineering will be important for creating customer experiences. The marketer of the future will need to be supremely curious and creative and to balance and integrate different worlds. It will all come down to delivering memorable and lasting experiences in a constantly and fast changing environment.

  15. Exploratory Analysis of Time from HIV Diagnosis to ART Start, Factors and effect on survival: A longitudinal follow up study at seven teaching hospitals in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teklu, Alula M; Delele, Kesetebirhan; Abraha, Mulu; Belayhun, Bekele; Gudina, Esayas Kebede; Nega, Abiy

    2017-02-01

    The HIV care in Ethiopia has reached 79% coverage. The timeliness of the care provided at the different levels in the course of the disease starting from knowing HIV positive status to ART initiation is not well known. This study intends to explore the timing of the care seeking, the care provision and associated factors. This is a longitudinal follow-up study at seven university hospitals. Patients enrolled in HIV care from September 2005 to December 2013 and aged ≥14 years were studied. Different times in the cascade of HIV care were examined including the duration from date HIV diagnosed to enrollment in HIV care, duration from enrollment to eligibility for ART and time from eligibility to initiation of ART. Ordinal logistic regression was used to investigate their determinants while the effect of these periods on survival of patients was determined using cox-proportional hazards regression. 4159 clients were studied. Time to enrollment after HIV test decreased from 39 days in 2005 to 1 day after 2008. It took longer if baseline CD4 was higher, and eligibility for ART was assessed late. Young adults, lower baseline CD4, HIV diagnosisART initiation. Male gender, advanced disease stage and lower baseline CD4 were consistent risk factors for mortality. Time to enrollment and duration of ART eligibility assessment as well as ART initiation time after eligibility is improving. Further study is required to identify why mortality is slightly increasing after 2010.

  16. The Effect of Platelet-Rich Plasma on Survival of the Composite Graft and the Proper Time of Injection in a Rabbit Ear Composite Graft Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Nam Choi

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundAdministration of growth factors has been associated with increased viability of composite grafts greater than 1-cm in diameter. Platelet-rich plasma (PRP contains many of the growth factors studied. In this study, we evaluate the effect of PRP injection on composite graft viability and the proper time for injection.MethodsA total of 24 New Zealand White rabbits were divided into four groups. Autologous PRP was injected into the recipient sites three days before grafting in group 1, on the day of grafting in group 2, and three days after grafting in group 3. Group 4 served as control without PRP administration. Auricular composite grafts of 3-cm diameter were harvested and grafted back into place after being rotated 180 degrees. Median graft viability and microvessel density were evaluated at day 21 of graft via macroscopic photographs and immunofluorescent staining, respectively.ResultsThe median graft survival rate was 97.8% in group 1, 69.2% in group 2, 55.7% in group 3, and 40.8% in the control group. The median vessel counts were 34 (per ×200 HPF in group 1, 24.5 in group 2, 19.5 in group 3, and 10.5 in the control group.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that PRP administration is associated with increased composite graft viability. All experimental groups showed a significantly higher survival rate and microvessel density, compared with the control group. Pre-administration of PRP was followed by the highest graft survival rate and revascularization. PRP treatments are minimally invasive, fast, easily applicable, and inexpensive, and offer a potential clinical pathway to larger composite grafts.

  17. Survival after Abdominoperineal and Sphincter-Preserving Resection in Nonmetastatic Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Time-Trend and Propensity Score-Matched SEER Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Warschkow

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Abdominoperineal resection (APR has been associated with impaired survival in nonmetastatic rectal cancer patients. It is unclear whether this adverse outcome is due to the surgical procedure itself or is a consequence of tumor-related characteristics. Study Design. Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The impact of APR compared to coloanal anastomosis (CAA on survival was assessed by Cox regression and propensity-score matching. Results. In 36,488 patients with rectal cancer resection, the APR rate declined from 31.8% in 1998 to 19.2% in 2011, with a significant trend change in 2004 at 21.6% (P<0.001. To minimize a potential time-trend bias, survival analysis was limited to patients diagnosed after 2004. APR was associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality after unadjusted analysis (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.28–2.03, P<0.01 and multivariable adjustment (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10–1.76, P<0.01. After optimal adjustment of highly biased patient characteristics by propensity-score matching, APR was not identified as a risk factor for cancer-specific mortality (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.56–1.29, P=0.456. Conclusions. The current propensity score-adjusted analysis provides evidence that worse oncological outcomes in patients undergoing APR compared to CAA are caused by different patient characteristics and not by the surgical procedure itself.

  18. Severe accident sequences simulated at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbajo, J.J.

    1999-01-01

    Different severe accident sequences employing the MELCOR code, version 1.8.4 QK, have been simulated at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (Grand Gulf). The postulated severe accidents simulated are two low-pressure, short-term, station blackouts; two unmitigated small-break (SB) loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) (SBLOCAs); and one unmitigated large LOCA (LLOCA). The purpose of this study was to calculate best-estimate timings of events and source terms for a wide range of severe accidents and to compare the plant response to these accidents

  19. Trends and timing of cigarette smoking uptake among US young adults: survival analysis using annual national cohorts from 1976 to 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M; O'Malley, Patrick M

    2015-07-01

    To measure changes over time in cigarette smoking uptake prevalence and timing during young adulthood (ages 19-26 years), and associations between time-invariant/-varying characteristics and uptake prevalence/timing. Discrete-time survival modeling of data collected from United States high school seniors (modal age 17/18) enrolled in successive graduating classes from 1976 to 2005 and participating in four follow-up surveys (to modal age 25/26). The longitudinal component of the Monitoring the Future study. A total of 10 758 individuals reporting no life-time smoking when first surveyed as high school seniors. Smoking uptake (any, experimental, occasional and regular); socio-demographic variables; marital, college and work status; time spent socializing. The percentage of young adults moving from non-smoker to experimental smoking [slope estimate 0.11, standard error (SE) = 0.04, P = 0.005] or occasional smoking (slope estimate 0.17, SE = 0.03, P age 19/20, but uptake prevalence at older ages increased over time [e.g. cohort year predicting occasional uptake at modal age 25/26 adjusted hazard odds ratio (AHOR) = 1.05, P = 0.002]. Time-invariant/-varying characteristics had unique associations with the timing of various forms of smoking uptake (e.g. at modal age 21/22, currently attending college increased occasional uptake risk (AHOR = 2.11, P age 19/20, but prevalence of uptake at older ages increased. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Analytic Models Using Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time Modeling: Application to Parametric Survival Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Iain; Paracha, Noman; Abrams, Keith; Ray, Joshua

    2018-01-01

    Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time models are one of the most commonly used statistical methods to adjust for treatment switching in oncology clinical trials. The method is often applied in a decision analytic model without appropriately accounting for additional uncertainty when determining the allocation of health care resources. The aim of the study is to describe novel approaches to adequately account for uncertainty when using a Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time model in a decision analytic model. Using two examples, we tested and compared the performance of the novel Test-based method with the resampling bootstrap method and with the conventional approach of no adjustment. In the first example, we simulated life expectancy using a simple decision analytic model based on a hypothetical oncology trial with treatment switching. In the second example, we applied the adjustment method on published data when no individual patient data were available. Mean estimates of overall and incremental life expectancy were similar across methods. However, the bootstrapped and test-based estimates consistently produced greater estimates of uncertainty compared with the estimate without any adjustment applied. Similar results were observed when using the test based approach on a published data showing that failing to adjust for uncertainty led to smaller confidence intervals. Both the bootstrapping and test-based approaches provide a solution to appropriately incorporate uncertainty, with the benefit that the latter can implemented by researchers in the absence of individual patient data. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Accidents in radiotherapy: Lack of quality assurance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novotny, J.

    1997-01-01

    About 150 radiological accidents, involving more than 3000 patients with adverse effects, 15 patient's fatalities and about 5000 staff and public exposures have been collected and analysed. Out of 67 analysed accidents in external beam therapy 22% has been caused by wrong calculation of the exposure time or monitor units, 13% by inadequate review of patient's chart, 12% by mistakes in the anatomical area to be treated. The remaining 35% can be attributed to 17 different causes. The most common mistakes in brachytherapy were wrong activities of sources used for treatment (20%), inadequate procedures for placement of sources applicators (14%), mistakes in calculating the treatment time (12%), etc. The direct and contributing causes of radiological accidents have been deduced from each event, when it was possible and categorized into 9 categories: mistakes in procedures (30%), professional mistakes (17%), communication mistakes (15%), lack of training (8.5%), interpretation mistakes (7%), lack of supervision (6%), mistakes in judgement (6%), hardware failures (5%), software and other mistakes (5.5%). Three types of direct and contributing causes responsible for almost 62% of all accidents are directly connected to the quality assurance of treatment. The lessons learnt from the accidents are related to frequencies of direct and contributing factors and show that most of the accident are caused by lack, non-application of quality assurance (QA) procedures or by underestimating of QA procedures. The international system for collection of accidents and dissemination of lessons learnt from the different accidents, proposed by IAEA, can contribute to better practice in many radiotherapy departments. Most of the accidents could have been avoided, had a comprehensive QA programme been established and properly applied in all radiotherapy departments, whatever the size. (author)

  2. The radiation accident at Juarez

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koenig, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    During unconscious disassembly of a Co-60 therapy unit, 6010 metal pellets of 1 mm diameter each having 2.6 GBq (70 mCi) of activity were distributed in an uncontrolled manner. The incident was detected by mere chance. The event and the consequences are illustrated. The resulting collective dose is estimated to be 100 times bigger than that caused by the Harrisburg accident. (orig.) [de

  3. Effect of temperature and relative humidity on the development times and survival of Synopsyllus fonquerniei and Xenopsylla cheopis, the flea vectors of plague in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreppel, Katharina S; Telfer, Sandra; Rajerison, Minoarisoa; Morse, Andy; Baylis, Matthew

    2016-02-11

    Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia, the Americas but mainly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. In the highlands of Madagascar, plague is transmitted predominantly by two flea species which coexist on the island, but differ in their distribution. The endemic flea, Synopsyllus fonquerniei, dominates flea communities on rats caught outdoors, while the cosmopolitan flea, Xenopsylla cheopis, is found mostly on rats caught in houses. Additionally S. fonquerniei seems restricted to areas above 800 m. Climatic constraints on the development of the two main vectors of plague could explain the differences in their distribution and the seasonal changes in their abundance. Here we present the first study on effects of temperature and relative humidity on the immature stages of both vector species. We examined the two species' temperature and humidity requirements under experimental conditions at five different temperatures and two relative humidities. By employing multivariate and survival analysis we established the impact of temperature and relative humidity on development times and survival for both species. Using degree-day analysis we then predicted the average developmental threshold for larvae to reach pupation and for pupae to complete development under each treatment. This analysis was undertaken separately for the two relative humidities and for the two species. Development times and time to death differed significantly, with the endemic S. fonquerniei taking on average 1.79 times longer to complete development and having a shorter time to death than X. cheopis under adverse conditions with high temperature and low humidity. Temperature had a significant effect on the development times of flea larvae and pupae. While humidity did not affect the development times of either species, it did influence the time of death of S. fonquerniei. Using degree-day analysis we estimated an

  4. Agricultural implications for Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2013-01-01

    The overview of our research projects for Fukushima is presented including how they were derived. Then, where the fallout was found, right after the accident, is briefly summarized for soil, plants, trees, etc. The time of the accident was late winter, there were hardly any plants growing except for the wheat in the farming field. Most of the fallout was found at the surface of soil, tree barks, etc., which were exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The fallout found was firmly adsorbed to anything and did not move for months from the site when they first touched. Therefore, the newly emerged tissue after the accident showed very low radioactivity. The fallout contamination was not uniform, therefore, when radiograph of contaminated soil or leaves were taken, fallout was shown as spots. Generally, plants could not absorb radiocesium adsorbed to soil. Some of the results we obtained will be presented. (author)

  5. Lymphadenectomy extent and survival of patients with gastric carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of time-to-event data from randomized trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mocellin, Simone; Nitti, Donato

    2015-05-01

    The extent of lymph node dissection in patients with resectable non-metastatic primary carcinoma of the stomach is still a controversial matter of debate, with special regard to its effect on survival. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of time-to-event data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the three main types of lymphadenectomy (D1, D2, and D3) for gastric cancer. Hazard ratio (HR) was considered the effect measure for both overall (OS), disease-specific (DSS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The quality of the available evidence was assessed using the GRADE system. Eight RCTs enrolling 2515 patients were eligible. The meta-analysis of four RCTs (n=1599) showed a significant impact of D2 versus D1 lymphadenectomy on DSS (summary HR=0.807, CI: 0.705-0.924, P=0.002), the corresponding number-to-treat being equal to ten. This effect remained clinically valuable even after adjustment for postoperative mortality. However, the quality of evidence was graded as moderate due to inconsistency issues. When OS and DFS were considered, the meta-analysis of respectively five (n=1653) and three RCTs (n=1332) found no significant difference between D2 and D1 lymph node dissection (summary HR=0.911, CI: 0.708-1.172, P=0.471, and summary HR=0.946, CI: 0.840-1.066, P=0.366, respectively). However, at subgroup analysis D2 type resulted superior to D1 type lymphadenectomy in terms of OS considering the two RCTs carried out in Eastern countries (summary HR=0.627, CI: 0.396-0.994, P=0.047). As regards the D3 vs D2 comparison, the meta-analysis of the three available RCTs (n=862) showed no significant impact of more extended lymphadenectomy on OS (summary HR=0.990, CI: 0.814-1.205, P=0.924). Our findings support the superiority of D2 versus D1 lymphadenectomy in terms of survival benefit. However, this advantage is mainly limited to DSS, the level of evidence is moderate, and the interaction with other factors affecting patient survival (such as

  6. [Accidents and injuries at work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standke, W

    2014-06-01

    In the case of an accident at work, the person concerned is insured by law according to the guidelines of the Sozialgesetzbuch VII as far as the injuries have been caused by this accident. The most important source of information on the incident in question is the accident report that has to be sent to the responsible institution for statutory accident insurance and prevention by the employer, if the accident of the injured person is fatal or leads to an incapacity to work for more than 3 days (= reportable accident). Data concerning accidents like these are sent to the Deutsche Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung (DGUV) as part of a random sample survey by the institutions for statutory accident insurance and prevention and are analyzed statistically. Thus the key issues of accidents can be established and used for effective prevention. Although the success of effective accident prevention is undisputed, there were still 919,025 occupational accidents in 2011, with clear gender-related differences. Most occupational accidents involve the upper and lower extremities. Accidents are analyzed comprehensively and the results are published and made available to all interested parties in an effort to improve public awareness of possible accidents. Apart from reportable accidents, data on the new occupational accident pensions are also gathered and analyzed statistically. Thus, additional information is gained on accidents with extremely serious consequences and partly permanent injuries for the accident victims.

  7. The influence of age at time of exposure to 239Pu or 226Ra on retention, distribution, survival and tumor induction in Beagles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruenger, F.W.; Miller, S.C.; Lloyd, R.D.

    1991-01-01

    The influence of age at injection of 226 Ra or 239 Pu on skeletal deposition and local distribution, the pattern of bone tumor formation and post-injection survival were studied in parallel short-term mechanistic and lifetime toxicity experiments. Beagles received a single intravenous injection of 226 Ra or 239 Pu at age 3 months (juveniles), 17-19 months (young adults) or 60 months (mature). Data from short-term mechanistic-dosimetric studies and from one dosage level (41 kBq 226 Ra/kg or 11 kBq 239 Pu/kg body mass) of each of the toxicity experiments were compared. Skeletal growth and turnover produced differential initial deposition and distribution patterns typical for each age group. The highest bone tumor incidence was seen in the young adult groups. Differences were observed in bone tumor location between dogs in the same age group given radium or plutonium and among age groups injected with either radionuclide, and some of these could be explained by differences in local dose distributions (e.g., trabecular vs. cortical bone). Cox regression indicated no significant differences in post-injection survivals (uncorrected for the different pre-injection periods) of Ra-injected groups, but there was a statistically significant difference among the Pu-injected groups. Neutron-induced autoradiography showed that differences in the effects of Pu in the three age groups were due primarily to the age- and time-dependent local distribution of the nuclide

  8. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mould, Richard F [41 Ewhurst Avenue, South Croydon, Surrey CR2 0DH (United Kingdom); Lahanas, Michael [Klinikum Offenbach, Strahlenklinik, 66 Starkenburgring, 63069 Offenbach am Main (Germany); Asselain, Bernard [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Brewster, David [Director, Scottish Cancer Registry, Information Services (NHS National Services Scotland) Area 155, Gyle Square, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh EH12 9EB (United Kingdom); Burgers, Sjaak A [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Plesmanlaan 121, 1066 CX Amsterdam, The (Netherlands); Damhuis, Ronald A M [Rotterdam Cancer Registry, Rochussenstraat 125, PO Box 289, 3000 AG Rotterdam, The (Netherlands); Rycke, Yann De [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Gennaro, Valerio [Liguria Mesothelioma Cancer Registry, Etiology and Epidemiology Department, National Cancer Research Institute, Pad. Maragliano, Largo R Benzi, 10-16132 Genoa (Italy); Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila [Department of Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology, National Institute of Occupational Medicine, PO Box 199, Swietej Teresy od Dzieciatka Jezus 8, 91-348 Lodz (Poland)

    2004-09-07

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0.

  9. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, Richard F; Lahanas, Michael; Asselain, Bernard; Brewster, David; Burgers, Sjaak A; Damhuis, Ronald A M; Rycke, Yann De; Gennaro, Valerio; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila

    2004-01-01

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0

  10. THE EFFECT OF CAROVERINE AND ITS COMBINATION WITH AMINOOXYACETIC ACID ON SURVIVAL TIME OF MICE WITH EXPERIMENTAL TETANUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indira Mujezinović

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Tetanus is a disease that occurs in humans and various animal species worldwide. Tetanus toxin, after binding itself to nerve structures in the spinal cord, blocking the release of inhibitory transmitors which results in predominance of excitatory transmitors, and this manifestes itself in skeletal muscle spasm. In theory, inhibition of excitatory transmission can try to antagonize a number of ways: by stimulating inhibitory transmission with application inhibitory transmitors, inhibition of excitatory transmission by application of antagonists of excitatory transmitors and combination of antagonists of excitatory transmitors. Bearing this in mind, we attempted to normalize the disorders by tetanus toxin with the use of caroverine, an antagonist of excitatory transmitors, alone and in combination with aminooxyacetic acid (substance that increases the level of GABA. Experiments were conducted on albino mice of both sexes, weight 20-25 g. The experimental tetanus was induced by application of tetanus toxin. The application of caroverine and combination with aminooxyacetic acid was carried out 24 hours after application of tetanus toxin, once per day, until the death. Caroverine, given alone in a dose of 1,2 mg/kg significantly prolonged the LD50 period of mice with experimental tetanus, so the obtained results can be said that its application only at this dose proved to be effective. The combination with aminooxyacetic acid was gave an insignificant extension of mice’s dying time with experimental tetanus in the trial, compared to the control group. Key words: tetanus, tetanus toxin, transmitors, caroverine, aminooxyacetic acid

  11. Denosumab and Bone Metastasis–Free Survival in Men With Nonmetastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: Exploratory Analyses by Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Doubling Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew R.; Saad, Fred; Oudard, Stephane; Shore, Neal; Fizazi, Karim; Sieber, Paul; Tombal, Bertrand; Damiao, Ronaldo; Marx, Gavin; Miller, Kurt; Van Veldhuizen, Peter; Morote, Juan; Ye, Zhishen; Dansey, Roger; Goessl, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Denosumab, an anti–RANK ligand monoclonal antibody, significantly increases bone metastasis–free survival (BMFS; hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; P = .028) and delays time to first bone metastasis in men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥ 8.0 ng/mL and/or PSA doubling time (PSADT) ≤ 10.0 months. To identify men at greatest risk for bone metastasis or death, we evaluated relationships between PSA and PSADT with BMFS in the placebo group and the efficacy and safety of denosumab in men with PSADT ≤ 10, ≤ 6, and ≤ 4 months. Patients and Methods A total of 1,432 men with nonmetastatic CRPC were randomly assigned 1:1 to monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or placebo. Enrollment began February 2006; primary analysis cutoff was July 2010, when approximately 660 men were anticipated to have developed bone metastases or died. Results In the placebo group, shorter BMFS was observed as PSADT decreased below 8 months. In analyses by shorter baseline PSADT, denosumab consistently increased BMFS by a median of 6.0, 7.2, and 7.5 months among men with PSADT ≤ 10 (HR, 0.84; P = .042), ≤ 6 (HR, 0.77; P = .006), and ≤ 4 months (HR, 0.71; P = .004), respectively. Denosumab also consistently increased time to bone metastasis by PSADT subset. No difference in survival was observed between treatment groups for the overall study population or PSADT subsets. Conclusion Patients with shorter PSADT are at greater risk for bone metastasis or death. Denosumab consistently improves BMFS in men with shorter PSADT and seems to have the greatest treatment effects in men at high risk for progression. PMID:24043751

  12. Denosumab and bone metastasis-free survival in men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: exploratory analyses by baseline prostate-specific antigen doubling time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matthew R; Saad, Fred; Oudard, Stephane; Shore, Neal; Fizazi, Karim; Sieber, Paul; Tombal, Bertrand; Damiao, Ronaldo; Marx, Gavin; Miller, Kurt; Van Veldhuizen, Peter; Morote, Juan; Ye, Zhishen; Dansey, Roger; Goessl, Carsten

    2013-10-20

    Denosumab, an anti-RANK ligand monoclonal antibody, significantly increases bone metastasis-free survival (BMFS; hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; P = .028) and delays time to first bone metastasis in men with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥ 8.0 ng/mL and/or PSA doubling time (PSADT) ≤ 10.0 months. To identify men at greatest risk for bone metastasis or death, we evaluated relationships between PSA and PSADT with BMFS in the placebo group and the efficacy and safety of denosumab in men with PSADT ≤ 10, ≤ 6, and ≤ 4 months. A total of 1,432 men with nonmetastatic CRPC were randomly assigned 1:1 to monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or placebo. Enrollment began February 2006; primary analysis cutoff was July 2010, when approximately 660 men were anticipated to have developed bone metastases or died. In the placebo group, shorter BMFS was observed as PSADT decreased below 8 months. In analyses by shorter baseline PSADT, denosumab consistently increased BMFS by a median of 6.0, 7.2, and 7.5 months among men with PSADT ≤ 10 (HR, 0.84; P = .042), ≤ 6 (HR, 0.77; P = .006), and ≤ 4 months (HR, 0.71; P = .004), respectively. Denosumab also consistently increased time to bone metastasis by PSADT subset. No difference in survival was observed between treatment groups for the overall study population or PSADT subsets. Patients with shorter PSADT are at greater risk for bone metastasis or death. Denosumab consistently improves BMFS in men with shorter PSADT and seems to have the greatest treatment effects in men at high risk for progression.

  13. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-09-01

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked separately

  14. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  15. Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

    2018-03-01

    With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

  16. Accident dynamics of LR-0 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorisek, M.; Tinka, I.

    1981-01-01

    The results are given of calculating the accident dynamics of the LR-0 light water experimental zero power reactor. Calculations of the time dependence of power, the total released energy, the temperature of fuel and its cladding were made using program FATRAP for different values of the total inserted reactivity. Using the results, an analysis is made of hypothetic accident states of the LR-0 reactor. The results are shown graphically. (J.B.)

  17. L-carnitine is a survival factor for chilled storage of rooster semen for a long time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattah, A; Sharafi, M; Masoudi, R; Shahverdi, A; Esmaeili, V

    2017-02-01

    Rooster sperm is sensitive to cooling, which restricts procedures to store sperms for extended periods of time for artificial insemination of commercial flocks. This study was conducted to evaluate the suitability of adding L-carnitine (LC) to chilled-storage of rooster sperm and its effects on sperm quality parameters and its fertility potential during storage at 5 °C. Pooled semen from roosters were divided into six equal aliquots and diluted with media supplemented with different concentrations of LC (0, 0.5, 1, 2, 4 and 8 mM LC). Diluted semen samples were cooled to 5 °C and stored over 48 h. Motility, viability, membrane functionality, lipid peroxidation and mitochondria activity of the sperm were assessed at 0, 24 and 48 h of storage. Moreover, fertility potential of chilled stored sperm was considered at 24 h of storage. While sperm quality was not affected by LC at the beginning of storage (0 h), supplementation of extender with 1 and 2 mM of LC significantly improved the percentage of sperm motility, viability, membrane integrity and mitochondria activity at 24 h and 48 h compared to other groups. Lipid peroxidation was significantly reduced in sperm samples diluted with 1 and 2 mM LC at 24 h (2.15 ± 0.52 nmol/ml and 2.21 ± 0.52 nmol/ml) and 48 h (3.42 ± 0.49 nmol/ml and 3.38 ± 0.49 nmol/ml) compared to other groups. Furthermore, fertility rates during artificial insemination using sperms cooled for 24 h in the presence of 1 and 2 mM LC were significantly higher (78%) than in the control group (64%). These findings suggest that optimum doses of LC could protect rooster sperm against cool storage-induced functional and structural damages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Database on aircraft accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishio, Masahide; Koriyama, Tamio

    2012-09-01

    The Reactor Safety Subcommittee in the Nuclear Safety and Preservation Committee published the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' as the standard method for evaluating probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities in July 2002. In response to the report, Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has been collecting open information on aircraft accidents of commercial airplanes, self-defense force (SDF) airplanes and US force airplanes every year since 2003, sorting out them and developing the database of aircraft accidents for latest 20 years to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into nuclear reactor facilities. This year, the database was revised by adding aircraft accidents in 2010 to the existing database and deleting aircraft accidents in 1991 from it, resulting in development of the revised 2011 database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010. Furthermore, the flight information on commercial aircrafts was also collected to develop the flight database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities. The method for developing the database of aircraft accidents to evaluate probability of aircraft crash into reactor facilities is based on the report 'The criteria on assessment of probability of aircraft crash into light water reactor facilities' described above. The 2011 revised database for latest 20 years from 1991 to 2010 shows the followings. The trend of the 2011 database changes little as compared to the last year's one. (1) The data of commercial aircraft accidents is based on 'Aircraft accident investigation reports of Japan transport safety board' of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. 4 large fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 58 small fixed-wing aircraft accidents, 5 large bladed aircraft accidents and 114 small bladed aircraft accidents occurred. The relevant accidents for evaluating

  19. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankowski, M.W.

    1987-01-01

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  20. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  1. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankowski, M.W.

    1988-01-01

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery management concentrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk, and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management

  2. Plutonium accident resistant container project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, J.A.

    1978-09-01

    The PARC (plutonium accident resistant container) project resulted in the design, development, and certification testing of a crashworthy air-transportable plutonium package (shipping container) for certification by the USNRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). This PAT-1 (plutonium air transportable) package survives a very severe sequential test program of impact, crush, puncture, slash, burn, and water immersion. There is also an individual hydrostatic pressure test. The package has a payload mass capacity of 2 kg of PuO 2 and a thermal capacity of 25 watts. The design rationale for very high energy absorption (impact, crush, puncture, and slash protection) with residual high-level fire protection, resulted in a reasonably small air-transportable package, advancing the packaging state-of-art. Optimization design iterations were utilized in the areas of impact energy absorption and stress and thermal analysis. Package test results are presented in relation to radioactive materials containment acceptance criteria, shielding and criticality standards

  3. Plutonium accident resistant container project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, J.A.

    1978-05-01

    The PARC (plutonium accident resistant container) project resulted in the design, development, and certification testing of a crashworthy air-transportable plutonium package (shipping container) for certification by the USNRC. This PAT-1 (plutonium air transportable) package survives a very severe sequential test program of impact, crush, puncture, slash, burn, and water immersion. There is also an individual hydrostatic pressure test. The package has a payload mass capacity of 2 kg of PuO2 and a thermal capacity of 25 watts. The design rationale for very high energy absorption (impact, crush, puncture, and slash protection) with residual high-level fire protection, resulted in a reasonalby small air-transportable package, advancing the packaging state-of-art. Optimization design iterations were utilized in the areas of impact energy absorption and stress and thermal analysis. Package test results are presented in relation to radioactive materials containment acceptance criteria, shielding and criticality standards

  4. The radiological accident in Yanango

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The use of nuclear technologies has fostered new, more effective and efficient medical procedures and has substantially improved diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. However, in order that the benefits of the use of ionizing radiation outweigh the potential hazards posed by this medium, it is important that radiation protection and safety standards be established to govern every aspect of the application of ionizing radiation. Adherence to these standards needs to be maintained through effective regulatory control, safe operational procedures and a safety culture that is shared by all. Occasionally, established safety procedures are violated and serious radiological consequences ensue. The radiological accident described in this report, which took place in Lilo, Georgia, was a result of such an infraction. Sealed radiation sources had been abandoned by a previous owner at a site without following established regulatory safety procedures, for example by transferring the sources to the new owner or treating them as spent material and conditioning them as waste. As a consequence, 11 individuals at the site were exposed for a long period of time to high doses of radiation which resulted inter alia in severe radiation induced skin injuries. Although at the time of the accident Georgia was not an IAEA Member State and was not a signatory of the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency, the IAEA still provided assistance to the Government of Georgia in assessing the radiological situation, while the World Health Organization (WHO) assisted in alleviating the medical consequences of the accident. The two organizations co-operated closely from the beginning, following the request for assistance by the Georgian Government. The IAEA conducted the radiological assessment and was responsible for preparing the report. The WHO and its collaborating centres within the Radiation Emergency Medical Preparedness and Assistance Network

  5. Nuclear morphometry in histological specimens of canine prostate cancer: Correlation with histological subtypes, Gleason score, methods of collection and survival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Donato, Guido; Laufer-Amorim, Renée; Palmieri, Chiara

    2017-10-01

    Ten normal prostates, 22 benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and 29 prostate cancer (PC) were morphometrically analyzed with regard to mean nuclear area (MNA), mean nuclear perimeter (MNP), mean nuclear diameter (MND), coefficient of variation of the nuclear area (NACV), mean nuclear diameter maximum (MDx), mean nuclear diameter minimum (MDm), mean nuclear form ellipse (MNFe) and form factor (FF). The relationship between nuclear morphometric parameters and histological type, Gleason score, methods of sample collection, presence of metastases and survival time of canine PC were also investigated. Overall, nuclei from neoplastic cells were larger, with greater variation in nuclear size and shape compared to normal and hyperplastic cells. Significant differences were found between more (small acinar/ductal) and less (cribriform, solid) differentiated PCs with regard to FF (pnuclear morphometric analysis in combination with Gleason score can help in canine prostate cancer grading, thus contributing to the establishment of a more precise prognosis and patient's management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Social impact of accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuroda, Isao

    1997-01-01

    There is the quite big difference between technological risk and social risk feeling. Various biases of social and sensational factors on accidents must be considered to recognize this difference. 'How safe is safe enough' is the perpetual thema concerning with not only technology but also sociology. The safety goal in aircraft design and how making effort to improve the present safety status in civil jet aircrafts is discussed as an example of social risk allowance. INSAG under IAEA started to discuss the safety culture after Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident on 1986. Safety culture and risk communication are the most important procedures to relieve the social impact for accidents. (author)

  7. Severe accident behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R.S.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of severe accident behavior. The term source term is defined and a brief history of the regulatory use of source term is presented. The processes in severe accidents in light water reactors are described with particular emphasis on the relationships between accident thermal-hydraulics and chemistry. Those factors which have the greatest impact on predicted source terms are identified. Design differences between plants that affect source term estimation are also described. The principal unresolved issues are identified that are the focus of ongoing research and debate in the technical community

  8. Management of accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compes, P.C.

    1987-01-01

    The example of the Chernobyl accident and the statistics of the occurrence of accidents make clear the threat to humanity, if one cannot guarantee successful accident prevention in the use and distribution of the projects aimed at. The science of safety, as it is known in the Wuppertal model, makes its contribution to this vital task for the human community. It makes it necessary to create the essential dates and concepts, the methods, principles and techniques based on them and the associated instrumentation. (DG) [de

  9. Chernobyl accident and Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    The report describes the Chernobyl accident and its consequences for Denmark in particular. It was commissioned by The Secretary of State for the Environment. The event at the accident site, the release and dispersal of radioactive substances into the atmosphere and over Europe, is described. A discussion of the Danish organisation for nuclear emergencies, how it was activated and adapted to the actual situation, is given. A comprehensive description of the radiological contamination in Denmark following the accident and the estimated health effects, is presented. The situation in other European countries is mentioned. (author)

  10. Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Timing of Relapse and Overall Survival for Children Treated on Dana-Farber Cancer Institute ALL Consortium Protocols (2000-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bona, Kira; Blonquist, Traci M; Neuberg, Donna S; Silverman, Lewis B; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-06-01

    Population-based evidence suggests that lower socioeconomic status (SES) negatively impacts the overall survival (OS) of children with leukemia; however, the relationships between SES and treatment-related mortality, relapse, and timing of relapse remain unclear. We examined OS, event-free survival (EFS) and cumulative incidence (CI) and timing of relapse by community-level poverty for 575 children aged 1-18 years with newly diagnosed acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) treated on consecutive phase III multicenter Dana-Farber Cancer Institute ALL Consortium Protocols between 2000 and 2010. Children were categorized into high- and low-poverty areas for the analysis using aggregate U.S. Census data linked to zip code. Children living in high-poverty areas experienced a 5-year OS of 85% as compared with 92% for those in low-poverty areas (P = 0.02); poverty remained marginally significant (P = 0.07) after adjustment for immunophenotype, age, and white blood cell count. There were no differences detected in EFS or CI relapse by poverty area. However, 92% of the relapses observed in children from high-poverty areas occurred <36 months from complete remission, compared to 48% of those in children from low-poverty areas (P = 0.008). U.S. children with ALL living in high-poverty areas have a higher risk of early relapse when compared with those living in low-poverty areas despite uniform treatment. This may in part explain decreased OS observed in these children. This finding highlights disparities in childhood cancer outcomes by SES despite uniform treatment. Further investigations of the mechanistic pathways underlying this finding are needed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Large Break LOCA Accident Management Strategies for Accidents With Large Containment Leaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sdouz, Gert

    2006-01-01

    The goal of this work is the investigation of the influence of different accident management strategies on the thermal-hydraulics in the containment during a Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident with a large containment leak from the beginning of the accident. The increasing relevance of terrorism suggests a closer look at this kind of severe accidents. Normally the course of severe accidents and their associated phenomena are investigated with the assumption of an intact containment from the beginning of the accident. This intact containment has the ability to retain a large part of the radioactive inventory. In these cases there is only a release via a very small leakage due to the un-tightness of the containment up to cavity bottom melt through. This paper represents the last part of a comprehensive study on the influence of accident management strategies on the source term of VVER-1000 reactors. Basically two different accident sequences were investigated: the 'Station Blackout'- sequence and the 'Large Break LOCA'. In a first step the source term calculations were performed assuming an intact containment from the beginning of the accident and no accident management action. In a further step the influence of different accident management strategies was studied. The last part of the project was a repetition of the calculations with the assumption of a damaged containment from the beginning of the accident. This paper concentrates on the last step in the case of a Large Break LOCA. To be able to compare the results with calculations performed years ago the calculations were performed using the Source Term Code Package (STCP), hydrogen explosions are not considered. In this study four different scenarios have been investigated. The main parameter was the switch on time of the spray systems. One of the results is the influence of different accident management strategies on the source term. In the comparison with the sequence with intact containment it was

  12. NIF: Impacts of chemical accidents and comparison of chemical/radiological accident approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Rhodes, M.

    1996-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) proposes to construct and operate the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The goals of the NIF are to (1) achieve fusion ignition in the laboratory for the first time by using inertial confinement fusion (ICF) technology based on an advanced-design neodymium glass solid-state laser, and (2) conduct high-energy-density experiments in support of national security and civilian applications. The primary focus of this paper is worker-public health and safety issues associated with postulated chemical accidents during the operation of NIF. The key findings from the accident analysis will be presented. Although NIF chemical accidents will be emphasized, the important differences between chemical and radiological accident analysis approaches and the metrics for reporting results will be highlighted. These differences are common EIS facility and transportation accident assessments

  13. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC......); 59% above 0.08%. In all cases where a pillion passenger was killed, the operator of the motorcycle had a BAC greater than 0.08%. Of the killed counterparts 2 were non-intoxicated, 2 had a BAC greater than 0.08%, and 4 were not tested. The results advocate that the law should restrict alcohol...... consumption by pillion passengers as well as by the motorcycle operator. Suggestions made to extend the data base needed for developing appropriate alcohol countermeasures by collecting sociodemographic data on drivers killed or seriously injured should be supported....

  14. Preliminary safety analysis of the PWR with accident-tolerant fuels during severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xiaoli; Li, Wei; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Yapei; Tian, Wenxi; Su, Guanghui; Qiu, Suizheng; Liu, Tong; Deng, Yongjun; Huang, Heng

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of severe accident scenarios for a PWR fueled with ATF system is performed. • A large-break LOCA without ECCS is analyzed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • Extended SBO cases are discussed for the PWR fueled with ATF system. • The accident-tolerance of ATF system for application in PWR is illustrated. - Abstract: Experience gained in decades of nuclear safety research and previous nuclear accidents direct to the investigation of passive safety system design and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) system which is now becoming a hot research point in the nuclear energy field. The ATF system is aimed at upgrading safety characteristics of the nuclear fuel and cladding in a reactor core where active cooling has been lost, and is preferable or comparable to the current UO 2 –Zr system when the reactor is in normal operation. By virtue of advanced materials with improved properties, the ATF system will obviously slow down the progression of accidents, allowing wider margin of time for the mitigation measures to work. Specifically, the simulation and analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) without ECCS and extended station blackout (SBO) severe accident are performed for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) loaded with ATF candidates, to reflect the accident-tolerance of ATF

  15. Identification of NPP accidents using support vector classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In case of the accidents that happens in a nuclear power plants (NPPs), it is very important to identify its accidents for the operator. Therefore, in order to effectively manage the accidents, the initial short time trends of major parameters have to be observed and NPP accidents have to accurately be identified to provide its information to operators and technicians. In this regard, the objective of this study is to identify the accidents when the accidents happen in NPPs. In this study, we applied the support vector classification (SVC) model to classify the initiating events of critical accidents such as loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), total loss of feedwater (TLOFW), station blackout (SBO), and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). Input variables were used as the initial integral value of the signal measured in the reactor coolant system (RCS), steam generator, and containment vessel after reactor trip. The proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. In this study, the proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. We used an initial integral value of the simulated sensor signals to identify the NPP accidents. The training data was used to train the SVC model. And, the trained model was confirmed using the test data. As a result, it was known that it can accurately classify five events.

  16. Accident resistant transport container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  17. Accident resistant transport container

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, J.A.; Cole, J.K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident

  18. Big nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshall, W.; Billingon, D.E.; Cameron, R.F.; Curl, S.J.

    1983-09-01

    Much of the debate on the safety of nuclear power focuses on the large number of fatalities that could, in theory, be caused by extremely unlikely but just imaginable reactor accidents. This, along with the nuclear industry's inappropriate use of vocabulary during public debate, has given the general public a distorted impression of the risks of nuclear power. The paper reviews the way in which the probability and consequences of big nuclear accidents have been presented in the past and makes recommendations for the future, including the presentation of the long-term consequences of such accidents in terms of 'loss of life expectancy', 'increased chance of fatal cancer' and 'equivalent pattern of compulsory cigarette smoking'. The paper presents mathematical arguments, which show the derivation and validity of the proposed methods of presenting the consequences of imaginable big nuclear accidents. (author)

  19. Accidents in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1989-01-01

    The nuclear industry perspective and the public perspective on big nuclear accidents and leukaemia near nuclear sites are discussed. The industry perspective is that big accidents are so unlikely as to be virtually impossible and that leukaemia is not specifically associated with nuclear installations. Clusters of cancer with statistical significance occur in major cities. The public perspective is coloured by a prejudice and myth: the fear of radiation. The big nuclear accident is seen therefore as much more unacceptable than any other big accident. Risks associated with Sizewell-B nuclear station and the liquid gas depot at Canvey Island are discussed. The facts and figures are presented as tables and graphs. Given conflicting interpretations of the leukaemia problem the public inclines towards the more pessimistic view. (author)

  20. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  1. Emergency Response to Radioactive Material Transport Accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EL-shinawy, R.M.K.

    2009-01-01

    Although transport regulations issued by IAEA is providing a high degree of safety during transport opertions,transport accidents involving packages containing radioactive material have occurred and will occur at any time. Whenever a transport accident involving radioactive material accurs, and many will pose no radiation safety problems, emergency respnose actioms are meeded to ensure that radiation safety is maintained. In case of transport accident that result in a significant relesae of radioactive material , loss of shielding or loss of criticality control , that consequences should be controlled or mitigated by proper emergency response actions safety guide, Emergency Response Plamming and Prepardness for transport accidents involving radioactive material, was published by IAEA. This guide reflected all requirememts of IAEA, regulations for safe transport of radioactive material this guide provide guidance to the publicauthorites and other interested organziation who are responsible for establishing such emergency arrangements

  2. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  3. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  4. Internal dose assessment in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toohey, R.E.

    2003-01-01

    Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs of interest need to be computed from first principles. Standard bioassay methods may be used to assess body contents, but, again, the standard models for bioassay interpretation may not be applicable because of the circumstances of the accident and the prompt initiation of decorporation therapy. Examples of modifications to the standard methodologies include adjustment of biological half-times under therapy, such as in the Goiania accident, and the same effect, complicated by continued input from contaminated wounds, in the Hanford 241 Am accident. (author)

  5. The Chernobyl accident - five years later

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueck, K.

    1991-06-01

    At the fifth anniversary of the Chernobyl accident the initial situation at that time, the control of the consequences to Austria in the present light, as well as the knowledge gained from the accident and its consequences are described. A final estimate and appraisal of the total population dose by the accident alloted according to the individual exposure pathways and the dose reductions due to countermeasures by the authorities are given. The dose reduction in the following years is described. Five years later the external exposure was reduced to about 6 % of the values of the first year, the ingestion dose to about 5 % of the first-year-values. Finally, the current radiation situation is described and the dose contribution by foodstuff with elevated activity concentration is estimated. Also the consequences from the experience and knowledge obtained by the accident are described. (author)

  6. Deterministic analyses of severe accident issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dua, S.S.; Moody, F.J.; Muralidharan, R.; Claassen, L.B.

    2004-01-01

    Severe accidents in light water reactors involve complex physical phenomena. In the past there has been a heavy reliance on simple assumptions regarding physical phenomena alongside of probability methods to evaluate risks associated with severe accidents. Recently GE has developed realistic methodologies that permit deterministic evaluations of severe accident progression and of some of the associated phenomena in the case of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These de