Test reactor risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

1976-04-01

A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

2002-01-01

Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

1991-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2007-01-01

A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

2015-01-01

Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

Application of the accident management information needs methodology to a severe accident sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, L.W.; Hanson, D.J.; Nelson, W.R.; Solberg, D.E.

1989-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting an accident management research program that emphasizes the use of severe accident research to enhance the ability of plant operating personnel to effectively manage severe accidents. Hence, it is necessary to ensure that the plant instrumentation and information systems adequately provide this information to the operating staff during accident conditions. A methodology to identify and assess the information needs of the operating staff of a nuclear power plant during a severe accident has been developed. The methodology identifies (a) the information needs of the plant personnel during a wide range of accident conditions, (b) the existing plant measurements capable of supplying these information needs and minor additions to instrument and display systems that would enhance management capabilities, (c) measurement capabilities and limitations during severe accident conditions, and (d) areas in which the information systems could mislead plant personnel

Application of the accident management information needs methodology to a severe accident sequence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ward, L.W.; Hanson, D.J.; Nelson, W.R. (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls (USA)); Solberg, D.E. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (USA))

1989-11-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting an accident management research program that emphasizes the use of severe accident research to enhance the ability of plant operating personnel to effectively manage severe accidents. Hence, it is necessary to ensure that the plant instrumentation and information systems adequately provide this information to the operating staff during accident conditions. A methodology to identify and assess the information needs of the operating staff of a nuclear power plant during a severe accident has been developed. The methodology identifies (a) the information needs of the plant personnel during a wide range of accident conditions, (b) the existing plant measurements capable of supplying these information needs and minor additions to instrument and display systems that would enhance management capabilities, (c) measurement capabilities and limitations during severe accident conditions, and (d) areas in which the information systems could mislead plant personnel.

Microbial aerosol generation during laboratory accidents and subsequent risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, A; Parks, S

2006-04-01

To quantify microbial aerosols generated by a series of laboratory accidents and to use these data in risk assessment. A series of laboratory accident scenarios have been devised and the microbial aerosol generated by them has been measured using a range of microbial air samplers. The accident scenarios generating the highest aerosol concentrations were, dropping a fungal plate, dropping a large bottle, centrifuge rotor leaks and a blocked syringe filter. Many of these accidents generated low particle size aerosols, which would be inhaled into the lungs of any exposed laboratory staff. Spray factors (SFs) have been calculated using the results of these experiments as an indicator of the potential for accidents to generate microbial aerosols. Model risk assessments have been described using the SF data. Quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents can provide data that can aid the design of containment laboratories and the response to laboratory accidents. A methodology has been described and supporting data provided to allow microbiological safety officers to carry out quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents.

An Evaluation Methodology Development and Application Process for Severe Accident Safety Issue Resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert P. Martin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A general evaluation methodology development and application process (EMDAP paradigm is described for the resolution of severe accident safety issues. For the broader objective of complete and comprehensive design validation, severe accident safety issues are resolved by demonstrating comprehensive severe-accident-related engineering through applicable testing programs, process studies demonstrating certain deterministic elements, probabilistic risk assessment, and severe accident management guidelines. The basic framework described in this paper extends the top-down, bottom-up strategy described in the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 1.203 to severe accident evaluations addressing U.S. NRC expectation for plant design certification applications.

IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

Development of A Methodology for Assessing Various Accident Management Strategies Using Decision Tree Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Nam Yeong; Kim, Jin Tae; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The purpose of ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) analysis is to evaluate operational accidents in full power and low power operation by using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) technologies. The awareness of the importance of ASP analysis has been on rise. The methodology for ASP analysis has been developed in Korea, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has managed KINS-ASP program since it was developed. In this study, we applied ASP analysis into operational accidents in full power and low power operation to quantify CCDP (Conditional Core Damage Probability). To reflect these 2 cases into PRA model, we modified fault trees and event trees of the existing PRA model. Also, we suggest the ASP regulatory system in the conclusion. In this study, we reviewed previous studies for ASP analysis. Based on it, we applied it into operational accidents in full power and low power operation. CCDP of these 2 cases are 1.195E-06 and 2.261E-03. Unlike other countries, there is no regulatory basis of ASP analysis in Korea. ASP analysis could detect the risk by assessing the existing operational accidents. ASP analysis can improve the safety of nuclear power plant by detecting, reviewing the operational accidents, and finally removing potential risk. Operator have to notify regulatory institute of operational accident before operator takes recovery work for the accident. After follow-up accident, they have to check precursors in data base to find similar accident.

Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

1996-01-01

For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1993-01-01

This paper will describe a methodology which has been developed to allow accident probabilities associated with one severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme, permitting some comparisons of different studies at the category level. In this methodology, the severity category schemes to be compared are mapped onto a common set of axes. The axes represent critical accident environments (e.g., impact, thermal, crush, puncture) and indicate the range of accident parameters from zero (no accident) to the most sever credible forces. The choice of critical accident environments for the axes depends on the package being transported and the mode of transportation. The accident probabilities associated with one scheme are then transferred to the other scheme. This transfer of category probabilities is based on the relationships of the critical accident parameters to probability of occurrence. The methodology can be employed to transfer any quantity between category schemes if the appropriate supporting information is available. (J.P.N.)

A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji

2016-01-01

The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Final Report; APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Slutrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hammar, L.; Soederman, E. [ES-konsult, Stockholm (Sweden)

1996-12-01

The APRI-project started in 1992 with participation of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish utilities. The Finnish utility TVO joined the project in 1993. The aim of the project has been to work with phenomenological questions in severe accidents, concentrating on the risk-dominating issues. The work is reported in separate sub-project reports, the present is the final report of the methodological studies as well as a final report for the total project. The research has led to clarifications of the risk complex, and ameliorated the basis for advanced probabilistic safety analyses, specially for the emission risks (PSA level 2) which are being studied at the Swedish plants. A new method has been tried for analysis of complicated accident courses, giving a possibility for systematic evaluation of the impact of different important phenomena (e.g. melt-through, high pressure melt-through with direct heating of the containment atmosphere, steam explosions). In this method, the phenomena are looked upon as top events of a `phenomena-tree`, illustrating how various conditions must be met before the top-event can happen. This method has been useful, in particular for applying `expert estimates`. 47 refs.

Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elvik, Rune

2015-01-01

This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use...... limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights...... the guidelines. The importance of exploratory analysis and an iterative approach in developing accident modification functions is stressed. The example shows that strict compliance with all the guidelines may be difficult, but represents a level of stringency that should be strived for. Currently the main...

Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-10-01

Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks

Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

1983-01-01

A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

2011-01-01

Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2015-07-01

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

A methodology for radiological accidents analysis in industrial gamma radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, F.C.A. da.

1990-01-01

A critical review of 34 published severe radiological accidents in industrial gamma radiography, that happened in 15 countries, from 1960 to 1988, was performed. The most frequent causes, consequences and dose estimation methods were analysed, aiming to stablish better procedures of radiation safety and accidents analysis. The objective of this work is to elaborate a radiological accidents analysis methodology in industrial gamma radiography. The suggested methodology will enable professionals to determine the true causes of the event and to estimate the dose with a good certainty. The technical analytical tree, recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency to perform radiation protection and nuclear safety programs, was adopted in the elaboration of the suggested methodology. The viability of the use of the Electron Gamma Shower 4 Computer Code System to calculate the absorbed dose in radiological accidents in industrial gamma radiography, mainly at sup(192)Ir radioactive source handling situations was also studied. (author)

Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1991-01-01

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships. These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme

Methodology for time-dependent reliability analysis of accident sequences and complex reactor systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paula, H.M.

1984-01-01

The work presented here is of direct use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is of value to utilities as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Specifically, this report presents a methodology and a computer program to calculate the expected number of occurrences for each accident sequence in an event tree. The methodology evaluates the time-dependent (instantaneous) and the average behavior of the accident sequence. The methodology accounts for standby safety system and component failures that occur (a) before they are demanded, (b) upon demand, and (c) during the mission (system operation). With respect to failures that occur during the mission, this methodology is unique in the sense that it models components that can be repaired during the mission. The expected number of system failures during the mission provides an upper bound for the probability of a system failure to run - the mission unreliability. The basic event modeling includes components that are continuously monitored, periodically tested, and those that are not tested or are otherwise nonrepairable. The computer program ASA allows practical applications of the method developed. This work represents a required extension of the presently available methodology and allows a more realistic PRA of nuclear power plants

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1975-10-01

Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks.

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

Methodological aspects to elaborate the management and procedure guides of severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Gonzalez, F.; Jimenez Fernandez, A.

1995-01-01

The management guides in severe accidents are very important to know the procedures in these accidents. The present articles summarizes the methodological aspects to elaborate the management guides, in order to prevent the severe accidents

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

Science.gov (United States)

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe

The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequential techniques, epidemiological techniques and systemic techniques, where the marine accidents are included in the epidemiological technique. This study compares the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART methodology and the 4M Overturned Pyramid (MOP model, which are applied to assess marine accidents. Furthermore, the MOP model can effectively describe the relationships of other factors which affect the accidents; whereas, the HEART methodology is only focused on human factors.

Development of the methodology and approaches to validate safety and accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asmolov, V.G.

1997-01-01

The article compares the development of the methodology and approaches to validate the nuclear power plant safety and accident management in Russia and advanced industrial countries. It demonstrates that the development of methods of safety validation is dialectically related to the accumulation of the knowledge base on processes and events during NPP normal operation, transients and emergencies, including severe accidents. The article describes the Russian severe accident research program (1987-1996), the implementation of which allowed Russia to reach the world level of the safety validation efforts, presents future high-priority study areas. Problems related to possible approaches to the methodological accident management development are discussed. (orig.)

DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FORECASTING AT VARIOUS TYPICAL URBAN AREAS

OpenAIRE

D. V. Kapsky

2012-01-01

The paper provides investigation results pertaining to development of methodology for forecasting traffic accidents using a “conflict zone” method that considers potential danger for two typical urban areas, namely: signaled crossings and bumps that are made in the areas of zebra crossings and it also considers various types and kinds of conflicts. The investigations have made it possible to obtain various indices of threshold sensitivity in respect of  potential risks  and in relation to tra...

Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senne, Junior, Murillo

2003-07-15

The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senne Junior, Murillo

2003-07-15

The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

2002-01-01

Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

Source term and radiological consequence evaluation for nuclear accidents using a 'hand type' methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margeanu, Sorin; Tatiana, Angelescu

2005-01-01

In the last decades, hand type calculations have been replaced by computerized solutions, which are much more accurate, but the preparation of an input to run the code can be a time consuming process and can require a laborious work. This is why, a place for hand calculation based on nomograms still exist in some areas. An example is emergency response to an accidental release of radioactive contaminants when the health of persons close to the accident site might be at risk. In this case, results from computerized accident consequences assessment models may be delayed due to the equipment malfunction or the time required developing minimal input files and performing the calculations (typically more than five minutes). A simple nomogram (developed using computerized dispersion model calculations) can provide dispersion and dose estimates within a minute. The paper presents the methodology used for these 'hand type' calculation and the nomograms, figures and tables used to evaluate the dose to an individual close to the release point. In order to illustrate the use of methodology, a hypothetical severe accident scenario involving 14-MW INR-TRIGA research reactor was considered. (authors)

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiao Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M. Sam

2009-01-01

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Methodology and computational framework used for the US Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement accident analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Folga, S.; Huttenga, A.; Jackson, R.; TenBrook, W.; Russell, J.

1994-01-01

A methodology, computational framework, and integrated PC-based database have been developed to assess the risks of facility accidents in support of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement. The methodology includes the following interrelated elements: (1) screening of storage and treatment processes and related waste inventories to determine risk-dominant facilities across the DOE complex, (2) development and frequency estimation of the risk-dominant sequences of accidents, and (3) determination of the evolution of and final compositions of radiological or chemically hazardous source terms predicted to be released as a function of the storage inventory or treatment process throughput. The computational framework automates these elements to provide source term input for the second part of the analysis which includes (1) development or integration of existing site-specific demographics and meteorological data and calculation of attendant unit-risk factors and (2) assessment of the radiological or toxicological consequences of accident releases to the general public and to the occupational work force

A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G.

1998-04-01

This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

A Methodology for Probabilistic Accident Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munteanu, Ion; Aldemir, Tunc

2003-01-01

While techniques have been developed to tackle different tasks in accident management, there have been very few attempts to develop an on-line operator assistance tool for accident management and none that can be found in the literature that uses probabilistic arguments, which are important in today's licensing climate. The state/parameter estimation capability of the dynamic system doctor (DSD) approach is combined with the dynamic event-tree generation capability of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology to address this issue. The DSD uses the cell-to-cell mapping technique for system representation that models the system evolution in terms of probability of transitions in time between sets of user-defined parameter/state variable magnitude intervals (cells) within a user-specified time interval (e.g., data sampling interval). The cell-to-cell transition probabilities are obtained from the given system model. The ISA follows the system dynamics in tree form and braches every time a setpoint for system/operator intervention is exceeded. The combined approach (a) can automatically account for uncertainties in the monitored system state, inputs, and modeling uncertainties through the appropriate choice of the cells, as well as providing a probabilistic measure to rank the likelihood of possible system states in view of these uncertainties; (b) allows flexibility in system representation; (c) yields the lower and upper bounds on the estimated values of state variables/parameters as well as their expected values; and (d) leads to fewer branchings in the dynamic event-tree generation. Using a simple but realistic pressurizer model, the potential use of the DSD-ISA methodology for on-line probabilistic accident management is illustrated

Methodology of a PWR containment analysis during a thermal-hydraulic accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Dayane F.; Sabundjian, Gaiane; Lima, Ana Cecilia S., E-mail: dayane.silva@usp.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br, E-mail: aclima@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2015-07-01

The aim of this work is to present the methodology of calculation to Angra 2 reactor containment during accidents of the type Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). This study will be possible to ensure the safety of the population of the surroundings upon the occurrence of accidents. One of the programs used to analyze containment of a nuclear plant is the CONTAIN. This computer code is an analysis tool used for predicting the physical conditions and distributions of radionuclides inside a containment building following the release of material from the primary system in a light-water reactor during an accident. The containment of the type PWR plant is a concrete building covered internally by metallic material and has limits of design pressure. The methodology of containment analysis must estimate the limits of pressure during a LOCA. The boundary conditions for the simulation are obtained from RELAP5 code. (author)

Methodology of a PWR containment analysis during a thermal-hydraulic accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Dayane F.; Sabundjian, Gaiane; Lima, Ana Cecilia S.

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to present the methodology of calculation to Angra 2 reactor containment during accidents of the type Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). This study will be possible to ensure the safety of the population of the surroundings upon the occurrence of accidents. One of the programs used to analyze containment of a nuclear plant is the CONTAIN. This computer code is an analysis tool used for predicting the physical conditions and distributions of radionuclides inside a containment building following the release of material from the primary system in a light-water reactor during an accident. The containment of the type PWR plant is a concrete building covered internally by metallic material and has limits of design pressure. The methodology of containment analysis must estimate the limits of pressure during a LOCA. The boundary conditions for the simulation are obtained from RELAP5 code. (author)

Self-similar risk characteristics of industrial accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puzanov, Y.V.

1994-01-01

At the present time there is no logically consistent theory of risk of industrial accidents, just as for the risk of other catastrophic phenomena (natural disasters, ecological castastrophes). Moreover, there is no unique interpretation of the term risk itself in application to catastrophic phenomena, and different authors employ the concept of risk arbitrarily, often proceeding from intuitively obvious ideas. The risk of an accident is most often identified with the probability of the accident itself (with a flux of accident events), the probability of loss of life or damage due to catastrophic phenomena. However, every such concept has its own independent meaning, and identifying these concepts with risk is fraught with confusion

APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frid, W.; Hammar, L.; Soederman, E.

1996-12-01

The APRI-project started in 1992 with participation of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish utilities. The Finnish utility TVO joined the project in 1993. The aim of the project has been to work with phenomenological questions in severe accidents, concentrating on the risk-dominating issues. The work is reported in separate sub-project reports, the present is the final report of the methodological studies as well as a final report for the total project. The research has led to clarifications of the risk complex, and ameliorated the basis for advanced probabilistic safety analyses, specially for the emission risks (PSA level 2) which are being studied at the Swedish plants. A new method has been tried for analysis of complicated accident courses, giving a possibility for systematic evaluation of the impact of different important phenomena (e.g. melt-through, high pressure melt-through with direct heating of the containment atmosphere, steam explosions). In this method, the phenomena are looked upon as top events of a 'phenomena-tree', illustrating how various conditions must be met before the top-event can happen. This method has been useful, in particular for applying 'expert estimates'. 47 refs

Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

2017-11-01

A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

Methodology of life cycle cost with risk expenditure for offshore process at conceptual design stage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Kiil; Chang, Daejun; Chang, Kwangpil; Rhee, Taejin; Lee, In-Beum

2011-01-01

This study proposed a new LCC (life cycle cost) methodology with the risk expenditure taken into account for comparative evaluation of offshore process options at their conceptual design stage. The risk expenditure consisted of the failure risk expenditure and the accident risk expenditure. The former accounted for the production loss and the maintenance expense due to equipment failures while the latter reflected the asset damage and the fatality worth caused by disastrous accidents such as fire and explosion. It was demonstrated that the new LCC methodology was capable of playing the role of a process selection basis in choosing the best of the liquefaction process options including the power generation systems for a floating LNG (Liquefied natural gas) production facility. Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. The new methodology with the risk expenditure, however, indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines should be the optimum choice, mainly due to its better availability and safety. -- Highlights: → The study presented the methodology of the LCC with the risk expenditure for the conceptual design of offshore processes. → The proposed methodology demonstrated the applicability of the liquefaction unit with the power generation system of LNG FPSO. → Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. → The new methodology indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines is the optimum choice due to its better availability and safety.

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

Methodology for assessment of safety risk due to potential accidents in US gaseous diffusion plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, J.H.; O'Kain, D.U.

1991-01-01

Gaseous diffusion plants that operate in the United States represent a unique combination of nuclear and chemical hazards. Assessing and controlling the health, safety, and environmental risks that can result from natural phenomena events, process upset conditions, and operator errors require a unique methodology. Such a methodology has been developed for the diffusion plants and is being utilized to assess and control the risk of operating the plants. A summary of the methodology developed to assess the unique safety risks at the US gaseous diffusion plants is presented in this paper

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitlow, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1992-01-01

Evaluation of the radiological risks of accidents involving vehicles transporting radioactive materials requires consideration of both accident probability and consequences. The probability that an accident will occur may be estimated from historical accident data for the given mode of transport. In addition to an overall accident rate, information regarding accident severity and the resulting package environments across the range of all credible accidents is needed to determine the potential for a release of radioactive material from the package or for an increase in direct radiation from the package caused by damage to packaging shielding. This information is usually obtained from a variety of sources such as historical data, experimental data, analyses of accident and package environments, and expert opinion. The consequences of an accident depend on a number of factors including the type, quantity, and physical form of radioactive material being transported; the response of the package to accident environments; the fraction of material released from the package; and the dispersion of any released material. One approach for the classification and treatment of transportation accidents in risk analysis divides the complete range of critical accident environments resulting from all credible accidents into some number of accident-severity categories. The types of accident environments that a package may be subjected to in transportation are often classified into the following five groups: impact, fire, crush, puncture, and immersion. A open-quotes criticalclose quotes accident environment is one of a type that could present a plausible threat to a package. Each severity category represents a portion of all credible accidents, and the total of all severity categories covers the complete range of critical accident environments. This approach is used in the risk assessment codes RADTRAN (Neuhauser and Kanipe 1992) and INTERTRAN (Ericsson and Elert 1983)

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1992-04-01

Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

1992-04-01

Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

Analysis of rail accident frequencies and severities for the assessment of radioactive material transport risk - Summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heywood, J.D.; Schwartz, G.; Fett, J.

2001-01-01

This shortened version of the final contractual report to the European Commission DGXVII summarises the work performed and the conclusions drawn from consideration, comparison and analysis of transport accident frequency and severity assessment methods for radioactive material transport by rail. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the study whose final report is 155 pages in length. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of transport risk assessment methods and related databases available to EU member states. The emphasis has been on the probabilistic accident severity and frequency assessment methodologies developed and used by the organisations involved in this EU-funded research project - AEA Technology and GRS. The results should be of major assistance in the understanding and development of standardised quantitative risk assessment models. Further work is suggested to underpin the development of a harmonised accident methodology including the collection of more detailed rail data and analysis on a year by year basis as well as further consideration of the assumptions made for fire accident scenarios. (author)

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C., E-mail: luxatj@mcmaster.ca [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-07-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

Science.gov (United States)

Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

2017-11-01

The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

Development of Methodology for Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accident Analysis Using MELCOR Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Won-Tae; Shin, Jae-Uk [RETech. Co. LTD., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Kwang-Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The general reason why SFP severe accident analysis has to be considered is that there is a potential great risk due to the huge number of fuel assemblies and no containment in a SFP building. In most cases, the SFP building is vulnerable to external damage or attack. In contrary, low decay heat of fuel assemblies may make the accident processes slow compared to the accident in reactor core because of a great deal of water. In short, its severity of consequence cannot exclude the consideration of SFP risk management. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has performed the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accident. The Fukushima-Daiichi accident has accelerated the needs for the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accidents, causing the nuclear industry and regulatory bodies to reexamine several assumptions concerning beyond-design basis events such as a station blackout. The tsunami brought about the loss of coolant accident, leading to the explosion of hydrogen in the SFP building. Analyses of SFP accident processes in the case of a loss of coolant with no heat removal have studied. Few studies however have focused on a long term process of SFP severe accident under no mitigation action such as a water makeup to SFP. USNRC and OECD have co-worked to examine the behavior of PWR fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions in a spent fuel rack. In support of the investigation, several new features of MELCOR model have been added to simulate both BWR fuel assembly and PWR 17 x 17 assembly in a spent fuel pool rack undergoing severe accident conditions. The purpose of the study in this paper is to develop a methodology of the long-term analysis for the plant level SFP severe accident by using the new-featured MELCOR program in the OPR-1000 Nuclear Power Plant. The study is to investigate the ability of MELCOR in predicting an entire process of SFP severe accident phenomena including the molten corium and concrete reaction. The

Risk assessment of aircraft accidents anywhere near an airport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbaran, Gustavo; Jensen Mariani Santiago Nicolas

2011-01-01

This work analyzes the more suitable areas to build new facilities, taking into account the conditions imposed by an airport located nearby. Initially, it describes the major characteristics of the airport. Then, the restrictions imposed to ensure the normal operation of the aircraft are analyzed. Following, there is a summary of the evolution of studies of aircraft accidents at nuclear facilities. In the second part, three models of aircraft crash probabilities are presented, all of them developed in the U.S.A, each with an increasing level of complexity in modeling the likelihood of accidents. The first model is the 'STD-3014' Department of Energy (DOE), the second is the 'ACRAM'(Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology) prepared by the 'Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory'(LLNL) and finally the more advanced 'ACRP-3', produced by the 'Transportation Research Board'. The results obtained with the three models establish that the risks imposed on the airport vicinity, remain low due to the improvement and innovation in the aircraft's safety, reducing the risk margin for the location of new nuclear facilities near an airport. (author) [es

EPRI nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1981-01-01

The present results of the nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute show that the total risk contribution of the nuclear fuel cycle is only approx. 1% of the accident risk of the power plant; hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is essentially that of the power plant itself. The power-plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005 is only approx. 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. The smallness of the fuel-cycle risk relative to the power-plant risk may be attributed to the lack of internal energy to drive an accident and the small amount of dispersible material. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihood of errors and the estimated size of errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault-tree analysis, with the release source terms calculated using physicochemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with CRAC (Consequences of Reactor Accident Code). No evacuation or mitigation is considered; source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/t) and short cooling period (90 to 150 d); high-efficiency particulate air filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

Accident management information needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R.

1990-04-01

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

Accident management information needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

1990-04-01

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs.

A Study on an Accident Diagnosis Methodology Using Influence Diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Kyungmin; Jae, Moosung

2006-01-01

For nuclear power plants, EOPs help operators to diagnose, control and mitigate accidents. However, it is very difficult that operators follow appropriate EOPs for accidents with similar symptoms in a given short period of time. Also EOPs are very complicated to follow and have many procedures to do. Therefore, if operators cannot diagnose correctly, the accident would become severe. Correct diagnostic action depends on the decision making ability of operators. Therefore, the methodology that can diagnose accidents quickly and help operators follow appropriate procedures should be developed. Due to the complexity of the tasks, it is very important to reduce human errors during diagnostic actions. In this study, to minimize human errors an accident diagnosis model has been constructed based on EOPs, accident symptoms and component reliabilities. For construction of model, Influence Diagrams have been applied. This decision-making tool consists of nodes and arcs. It is applicable to complicated situations, such as those required for developing strategies for managing severe accidents in nuclear power plants. And quantification of model has performed with total probability and Bayesian theorem. Through this quantification, the results should help operators diagnose complex situations

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C. [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-06-15

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

2010-01-01

Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

Comparison of accident risks in different energy systems: Comments from Russian specialists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

' experience of dosimetric and medical monitoring of the population and the clean-up staff makes us somewhat critical of such estimates. The incidence of malignant neoplasms among the adult population of the contaminated areas in Russia is steadily increasing, as it is in the rest of Russia. However, comparisons between the pre-accident and post-accident periods, and with other areas indicate that the Chernobyl factor has had no influence on this increase. Apart from the methodological complexities of determining the social significance of such low risks, the following must be taken into account. The cohorts in question are exposed to many other risks, including radiation risks, most of which can be significantly reduced. These factors include risks associated with medical procedures, radon in homes, chemical contamination of the environment, the quality of food products, standard of living and medical treatment

Safety methodology and risk targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazimi, M.S.

1983-01-01

In assessing the potential safety concerns of fusion, the experience from other energy sources lead to a variety of safety assessment approaches. The available approaches are: (1) The maximum possible accident approach; (2) The maximum credible accident approach; (3) The probabilistic total risk assessment. In the first approach, the mechanistic development of the events leading to the safety concern is ignored. Instead, the total radioactivity of the plant is assumed accessible to the public. Such an approach is obviously conservative and unrealistic. In the second approach a selection is made among the most severe of the possible accidents, and the progression of the accident is modeled as mechanistically as possible. In this case, the passive and active accident mitigation capabilities of the plant are taken into consideration. The result is expected to be that none or only a fraction of the total radioactivity can be released to the public. The adverse effect of this approach is to concentrate attention on a particular accident class, and perhaps not allow for other classes, a judgement that may later become undesirable. The probabilistic risk assessment requires the safety analysts to consider all classes of accidents and estimate both the probabilities of their occurrences and their consequences. Thus, the plant design in fact is subjected to a thorough investigation and the impact of alterations in design can be reflected in the total risk estimate. The disadvantage of this approach lies in the absence of well defined acceptable risk criteria as well as the large effect of public perception factors on the accepted risk. This paper will review the impact of application of these approaches in determination of the level of protection needed against activation product release to the atmosphere. (author)

Accident risks in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, P.

2005-01-01

This article discusses the accident rate of natural gas installations, which are quoted by the author to be lowest of all fossil fuels. The statistics on accidents and their consequences are looked at for the whole natural gas supply chain. The results of a study commissioned by the Swiss Gas and Water Professionals Association (SVGW) are presented and discussed. Statistics for the European Union and Eastern Europe are looked at and analysed. The study's methodological basis is described and the criteria used for the definition of an accident considered to be 'serious' are listed. The results of comparisons made of various energy chains are presented and discussed. Graphics are presented of frequency of occurrence and seriousness of damage for various forms of energy as well as for maximum possible consequences of accidents. Specific analyses for the natural gas chain are presented

The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

OpenAIRE

Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo; Wanginingastuti Mutmainnah; Masao Furusho

2017-01-01

Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequen...

Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

2007-01-01

The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehranifard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

2014-01-01

This paper describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology comprises qualitative as well as quantitative phases. The qualitative part so called Modified PIRT, being a robust process of PIRT for more precise quantification of uncertainties, is a two step process for identifying and ranking based on uncertainty importance in severe accident phenomena. In this process identified severe accident phenomena are ranked according to their effect on the figure of merit and their level of knowledge. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) serves here as a systematic approach for severe accident phenomena ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the severe accident model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. The methodology uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions for this step. The quantitative part utilizes uncertainty importance measures for the quantification of the effect of each input parameter to the output uncertainty. A response surface fitting approach is proposed for estimating associated uncertainties with less calculation cost. The quantitative results are used to plan in reducing epistemic uncertainty in the output variable(s). The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility. - Highlights: • A two stage framework for severe accident uncertainty analysis is proposed. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • Uncertainty importance measure quantitatively calculates effect of each uncertainty source. • Methodology is applied successfully on ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility

Development of methodology for the analysis of fuel behavior in light water reactor in design basis accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salatov, A. A.; Goncharov, A. A.; Eremenko, A. S.; Kuznetsov, V. I.; Bolnov, V. A.; Gusev, A. S.; Dolgov, A. B.; Ugryumov, A. V.

2013-01-01

The report attempts to analyze the current experience of the safety fuel for light-water reactors (LWRs) under design-basis accident conditions in terms of its compliance with international requirements for licensing nuclear power plants. The components of fuel behavior analysis methodology in design basis accidents in LWRs were considered, such as classification of design basis accidents, phenomenology of fuel behavior in design basis accidents, system of fuel safety criteria and their experimental support, applicability of used computer codes and input data for computational analysis of the fuel behavior in accidents, way of accounting for the uncertainty of calculation models and the input data. A brief history of the development of probabilistic safety analysis methodology for nuclear power plants abroad is considered. The examples of a conservative approach to safety analysis of VVER fuel and probabilistic approach to safety analysis of fuel TVS-K are performed. Actual problems in development of the methodology of analyzing the behavior of VVER fuel at the design basis accident conditions consist, according to the authors opinion, in following: 1) Development of a common methodology for analyzing the behavior of VVER fuel in the design basis accidents, implementing a realistic approach to the analysis of uncertainty - in the future it is necessary for the licensing of operating VVER fuel abroad; 2) Experimental and analytical support to the methodology: experimental studies to identify and study the characteristics of the key uncertainties of computational models of fuel and the cladding, development of computational models of key events in codes, validation code on the basis of integral experiments

EUROCONTROL-Systemic Occurrence Analysis Methodology (SOAM)-A 'Reason'-based organisational methodology for analysing incidents and accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Licu, Tony; Cioran, Florin; Hayward, Brent; Lowe, Andrew

2007-01-01

The Safety Occurrence Analysis Methodology (SOAM) developed for EUROCONTROL is an accident investigation methodology based on the Reason Model of organisational accidents. The purpose of a SOAM is to broaden the focus of an investigation from human involvement issues, also known as 'active failures of operational personnel' under Reason's original model, to include analysis of the latent conditions deeper within the organisation that set the context for the event. Such an approach is consistent with the tenets of Just Culture in which people are encouraged to provide full and open information about how incidents occurred, and are not penalised for errors. A truly systemic approach is not simply a means of transferring responsibility for a safety occurrence from front-line employees to senior managers. A consistent philosophy must be applied, where the investigation process seeks to correct deficiencies wherever they may be found, without attempting to apportion blame or liability

Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

1995-01-01

A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

2017-09-01

This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Masahiro

2012-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Asmalia Che

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

Development of a Methodology for VHTR Accident Consequence Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joeun; Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The substitution of the VHTR for burning fossil fuels conserves these hydrocarbon resources for other uses and eliminates the emissions of greenhouse. In Korea, for these reasons, constructing the VHTR plan for hydrogen production is in progress. In this study, the consequence analysis for the off-site releases of radioactive materials during severe accidents has been performed using the level 3 PRA technology. The offsite consequence analysis for a VHTR using the MACCS code has been performed. Since the passive system such as the RCCS(Reactor Cavity Cooling System) are equipped, the frequency of occurrence of accidents has been evaluated to be very low. For further study, the assessment for characteristic of VHTR safety system and precise quantification of its accident scenarios is expected to conduct more certain consequence analysis. This methodology shown in this study might contribute to enhancing the safety of VHTR design by utilizing the results having far lower effect on the environment than the LWRs.

ACCIDENT PHENOMENA OF RISK IMPORTANCE PROJECT - Continued RESEARCH CONCERNING SEVERE ACCIDENT PHENOMENA AND MANAGEMENT IN Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolandson, S.; Mueller, F.; Loevenhielm, G.

1997-01-01

Since 1988 all reactors in Sweden have mitigating measures, such as filtered vents, implemented. In parallel with the work of implementing these measures, a cooperation effort (RAMA projects) between the Swedish utilities and the Nuclear Power Inspectorate was performed to acquire sufficient knowledge about severe accident research work. The on-going project has the name Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3. In this paper, we will give background information about severe accident management in Sweden. In the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project we will focus on the work concerning coolability of melted core in lower plenum which is the main focus of the In-vessel Coolability Task Group within the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project. The Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project has joined on international consortium and the in-vessel cooling experiments are performed by Fauske and Associates, Inc. in Burr Ridge, Illinois, United States America, Sweden also intends to do one separate experiment with one instrument penetration we have in Swedish/Finnish BWR's. Other parts of the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project, such as support to level 2 studies, the research at Royal Institute of Technology and participation in international programs, such as Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, Advanced Containment Experiments and PHEBUS will be briefly described in the paper

Quantification of the detriment and comparison of health risks. Methodological problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammet, H.

1982-01-01

Some of the methodological problems involved in the quantitative estimate of the health detriment of different energy sources and in risk comparison are described. First, the question of determining the detriment is discussed from the point of view of the distortions introduced in the quantification when dealing with risks for which the amount of information available varies widely. The main criteria applied to classifying types of detriment are then recalled. Finally, the problems involved in comparisons are outlined: spatial and temporal variations in the types of detriment, operation under normal and accident conditions, and the risks to the public and workers. (author)

Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1977-03-01

Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

2013-03-01

In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

[Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

Science.gov (United States)

Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

2017-01-01

Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

Risk Analysis of Fukushima Accident using MACCS2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seunghee; Kim, Juyoul; Kim, Sukhoon; Kim, Juyub [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

It has been three years since Fukushima Daiichi accident had occurred. Many efforts have been done for a restoration, however, radioactive materials are still released resulting in a crucial additional damage to a human health and economics and the scale of damage is not much evaluated. Therefore, an estimation of damage degree caused by the released radioactive materials right after a nuclear accident is essential to cope with additional radioactive problems. Here, we report the risk analysis of Fukushima Dai-ichi accident using MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2), which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code for evaluating off-site consequences. It is used in level-3 Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA), for planning purposes, for cost-benefit analyses and so on. The purpose of this study is to estimate radiological doses and health risks of Fukushima Daiichi accident through short- and long-term of lifetime using MACCS2. In summary, the health risk for inhabitants near Fukushima Daiichi NPP has been evaluated by considering the long term radiation effect using MACCS2 code. The result indicates that the occurrence and death rate of the cancer have been increased by the radioactive materials released from Fukushima Daiichi accident. The result obtained in this study may provide new insights for taking action after the nuclear reactor accident to mitigate the released radioactive materials and to prepare the countermeasure.

Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

1992-04-01

This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

Probablistic risk assessment methodology application to Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babar, A.K.; Grover, R.B.; Mehra, V.K.; Gangwal, D.K.; Chakraborty, G.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment in the context of nuclear power plants is associated with models that predict the offsite radiological releases resulting from reactor accidents. Level 1 PRA deals with the identification of accident sequences relevant to the design of a system and also with their quantitative estimation. It is characterised by event tree, fault tree analysis. The initiating events applicable to pressurised heavy water reactors have been considered and the dominating initiating events essential for detailed studies are identified in this paper. Reliability analysis and the associated problems encountered during the case studies are mentioned briefly. It is imperative to validate the failure data used for analysis. Bayesian technique has been employed for the same and a brief account is included herein. A few important observations, e.g. effects of the presence of moderator, made during the application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology are also discussed. (author)

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Overview on hydrogen risk research and development activities: Methodology and open issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bentaib, Ahmed; Meynet, Nicolas; Bleyer, Alexande [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Severe Accident Department, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

2015-02-15

During the course of a severe accident in a light water nuclear reactor, large amounts of hydrogen can be generated and released into the containment during reactor core degradation. Additional burnable gases [hydrogen (H2) and carbon monoxide (CO)] may be released into the containment in the corium/concrete interaction. This could subsequently raise a combustion hazard. As the Fukushima accidents revealed, hydrogen combustion can cause high pressure spikes that could challenge the reactor buildings and lead to failure of the surrounding buildings. To prevent the gas explosion hazard, most mitigation strategies adopted by European countries are based on the implementation of passive autocatalytic recombiners (PARs). Studies of representative accident sequences indicate that, despite the installation of PARs, it is difficult to prevent at all times and locations, the formation of a combustible mixture that potentially leads to local flame acceleration. Complementary research and development (R and D) projects were recently launched to understand better the phenomena associated with the combustion hazard and to address the issues highlighted after the Fukushima Daiichi events such as explosion hazard in the venting system and the potential flammable mixture migration into spaces beyond the primary containment. The expected results will be used to improve the modeling tools and methodology for hydrogen risk assessment and severe accident management guidelines. The present paper aims to present the methodology adopted by Institut de Radioprotection et de Su.

Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children's assessment of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Mary Sissons; Maclean, Morag; Stevens, Claire

2018-02-01

Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10-11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents (e.g. bike accidents) underestimated; and the majority of children showed unrealistic optimism tending to see themselves as less likely to suffer these accidents in comparison to their peers, offering superior skills or parental control of the environment as an explanation. In the case of pedestrian accidents, children recognised their seriousness, underestimated the frequency of this risk and regarded their own road crossing skill as protection. These findings highlight the challenging task facing safety educators who, when teaching conventional safety knowledge and routines, also need to alert children to the danger of over-confidence without disabling them though fear. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of NUREG-1150 methods and results to accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.E.; Sype, T.T.; Camp, A.L.

1990-01-01

The risk from five nuclear power plants was examined during the NUREG-1150 program. When the analyses of the plants were complete, an effort was undertaken to examine the implications of NUREG-1150 for accident management initiatives. The framework provided by the NUREG-1150 analysis presented a means within which current accident management strategies could be evaluated and future accident management strategies could be developed and assessed. Five separate but interrelated phases of risk management were considered: (1) prevention of accident initiators, (2) prevention of core damage, (3) implementation of an effective emergency response, (4) prevention of vessel breach and mitigation of radionuclide releases from the reactor coolant system, and (5) retention of fission products in the containment and other surrounding buildings. A risk-based methodology was developed to identify and evaluate risk management options for each of these five phases. The methodology was demonstrated through quantitative examples for the first two phases of risk management listed above. In addition, the reduction in risk for several currently implemented risk management strategies at operating plants was quantified

Perspectives on the economic risks of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Burke, R.P.

1986-01-01

Models which can be used for the analysis of the economic risks from events which may occur during LWR operation have been developed. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The economic consequence models have been applied in studies of the economic risks from the operation of US LWR plants. The results of the analyses provide some important perspectives regarding the economic risks of LWR accidents. The analyses indicate that economic risks, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by the onsite costs of relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for a typical US plant

A study on the operator's errors of commission (EOC) in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants: methodology development and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun; Kang, Da Il

2003-04-01

As the concern on the operator's inappropriate interventions, the so-called Errors Of Commission (EOCs), that can exacerbate the plant safety has been raised, much of interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective has been increased. Also, one of the items in need of improvement for the conventional PSA and HRA that consider only the system-demanding human actions is the inclusion of the operator's EOC events into the PSA model. In this study, we propose a methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be occurring from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. In order to achieve this goal, the following research items have been performed: Firstly, we analysed the error causes or situations contributed to the occurrence of EOCs in several incidents/accidents of nuclear power plants. Secondly, limitations of the advanced HRAs in treating EOCs were reviewed, and a requirement for a new methodology for analysing EOCs was established. Thirdly, based on these accomplishments a methodology for identifying and analysing EOC events inducible from the failures in situation assessment and decision making was proposed and applied to all the accident sequences of YGN 3 and 4 NPP which resulted in the identification of about 10 EOC situations

Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Kula, K.R.; Taylor, R.P. Jr.; Ashbaugh, S.G.

1995-01-01

A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delvosalle, C.; Fievez, C.; Pipart, A.; Fabrega, J. Casal; Planas, E.; Christou, M.; Mushtaq, F.

2005-01-01

In the frame of the ESREL special session on ARAMIS project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the first Work Package, devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment, and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. A first part of the work aims at building a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. This work is coupled with an historical analysis of accidents. In a second part, influence of safety devices and policies will be considered, in order to build a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS). This last one will take into account safety systems and lead to obtain more realistic scenarios

Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

Psychic pathology of anthropogenic accidents at risk enterprises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pukhovskij, N.N.

1993-01-01

The literary data on the clinic and pathogenesis distinctions of traumatic and posttraumatic stress following the accidents are analyzed. The inner contradictory character of the Chernobyl NPP operators reaction to psychodraumatic situation is revealed. A number of concepts liable to discussion is given: inner contradiction of the reactions to traumatic stress on account of accidents at risk cuterprises puts forward the way for psychology evolution in process, besides, posttraumatic stress may be considered as one of the stages of such evolution; the misuse of spirits by the persons with traumatic stress appeared on account of accidents at risk enterprises puts forward the way for the subsequent evolution towards psychic degeneration; the prevailing effect of the reality denial among the personnel of the risk enterprises may form a muthcreative attitude to technical sphere and play a certain role in the emergence of anthropogenic accidents at these enterprises. 22 refs

Radiological accidents: methodologies of radio nuclides dis incorporation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez F, E. A.; Paredes G, L.; Cortes, A.

2014-08-01

Derived of the radioactive or nuclear material management, exists the risk that accidents can happen where people cases are presented with internal radioactive contamination, who will receive specialized medical care to accelerate the radioactive dis incorporation with the purpose of diminishing the absorbed dose and the associate biological effects. In this work treatments of radioactive dis incorporation were identified, in function of the radionuclide, radiation type, radioactive half life, biological half life, critical organ, ingestion duct and patient type. The factor time is decisive for the effectiveness of the selected treatment in the blockade stage (before the accident) or dis incorporation (after the accident); this factor is related with the radioactive and biological half lives. So to achieve dis incorporation efficiencies of more to 70%, the patient clinical treatment will begin before the first third of the biological half life of the radionuclide that generated the internal contamination. (Author)

Final report of the accident phenomenology and consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation. Spills Working Group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brereton, S.; Shinn, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hesse, D [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States); Kaninich, D. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Lazaro, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Mubayi, V. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1997-08-01

The Spills Working Group was one of six working groups established under the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation program. The objectives of APAC were to assess methodologies available in the accident phenomenology and consequence analysis area and to evaluate their adequacy for use in preparing DOE facility safety basis documentation, such as Basis for Interim Operation (BIO), Justification for Continued Operation (JCO), Hazard Analysis Documents, and Safety Analysis Reports (SARs). Additional objectives of APAC were to identify development needs and to define standard practices to be followed in the analyses supporting facility safety basis documentation. The Spills Working Group focused on methodologies for estimating four types of spill source terms: liquid chemical spills and evaporation, pressurized liquid/gas releases, solid spills and resuspension/sublimation, and resuspension of particulate matter from liquid spills.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salvi, Olivier; Debray, Bruno

2006-01-01

The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety

Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

1990-12-01

In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

Normal accidents living with high-risk technologies

CERN Document Server

Perrow, Charles

1984-01-01

Normal Accidents analyzes the social side of technological risk. Charles Perrow argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may help create new categories of accidents. (At Chernobyl, tests of a new safety system helped produce the meltdown and subsequent fire.) By recognizing two dimensions of risk--complex versus linear interactions, and tight versus loose coupling--this book provides a powerful framework for analyzing risks and the organizations that insist we run them.

Methodology for accident analyses of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled pebble bed blanket

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panayotov, Dobromir; Grief, Andrew; Merrill, Brad J.; Humrickhouse, Paul; Trow, Martin; Dillistone, Michael; Murgatroyd, Julian T.; Owen, Simon; Poitevin, Yves; Peers, Karen; Lyons, Alex; Heaton, Adam; Scott, Richard

2016-01-01

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Test Blanket Systems (TBS) DEMO breeding blankets (BB) safety demonstration. • Comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena. • Development of accident analysis specifications (AAS) via the use of phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT). • PIRT application to identify required physical models for BB accidents analysis, code assessment and selection. • Development of MELCOR and RELAP5 codes TBS models. • Qualification of the models via comparison with finite element calculations, code-tocode comparisons, and sensitivity studies. - Abstract: ‘Fusion for Energy’ (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. The methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCPB TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.

Methodology for accident analyses of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled pebble bed blanket

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Panayotov, Dobromir, E-mail: dobromir.panayotov@f4e.europa.eu [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla, 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, Barcelona E-08019 (Spain); Grief, Andrew [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom); Merrill, Brad J.; Humrickhouse, Paul [Idaho National Laboratory, PO Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Trow, Martin; Dillistone, Michael; Murgatroyd, Julian T.; Owen, Simon [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom); Poitevin, Yves [Fusion for Energy (F4E), Josep Pla, 2, Torres Diagonal Litoral B3, Barcelona E-08019 (Spain); Peers, Karen; Lyons, Alex; Heaton, Adam; Scott, Richard [Amec Foster Wheeler, Booths Park, Chelford Road, Knutsford WA16 8QZ, Cheshire (United Kingdom)

2016-11-01

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Test Blanket Systems (TBS) DEMO breeding blankets (BB) safety demonstration. • Comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena. • Development of accident analysis specifications (AAS) via the use of phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT). • PIRT application to identify required physical models for BB accidents analysis, code assessment and selection. • Development of MELCOR and RELAP5 codes TBS models. • Qualification of the models via comparison with finite element calculations, code-tocode comparisons, and sensitivity studies. - Abstract: ‘Fusion for Energy’ (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. The methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCPB TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.

Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix I. Accident definition and use of event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-10-01

Information is presented concerning accident definition and use of event trees, event tree methodology, potential accidents covered by the reactor safety study, analysis of potential accidents involving the reactor core, and analysis of potential accidents not involving the core

A critical assessment of energy accident studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felder, Frank A.

2009-01-01

A comparison of two studies conducted ten years apart on energy accidents provides important insights into methodological issues and policy implications. Recommendations for further improvements in energy accident studies are developed including accounting for differences between average and incremental accident damages, testing for appropriate levels of aggregation of accidents, making references and databases publicly available, more precisely defining and reporting different types of economic damages, accounting for involuntary and voluntary risks, reporting normalized damages, raising broader public policy and planning implications and updating existing accident databases.

A critical assessment of energy accident studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Felder, Frank A. [Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 33 Livingston Avenue, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)

2009-12-15

A comparison of two studies conducted ten years apart on energy accidents provides important insights into methodological issues and policy implications. Recommendations for further improvements in energy accident studies are developed including accounting for differences between average and incremental accident damages, testing for appropriate levels of aggregation of accidents, making references and databases publicly available, more precisely defining and reporting different types of economic damages, accounting for involuntary and voluntary risks, reporting normalized damages, raising broader public policy and planning implications and updating existing accident databases. (author)

Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United State. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two of the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide releases and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. This report, Volume 3, contains two appendices. Appendix D summarizes comments received, and staff responses, on the first (February 1987) draft of NUREG-1150. Appendix E provides a similar summary of comments and responses, but for the second (June 1989) version of the report

Development of integrated accident management assessment technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Won Dea; Ha, Jae Joo; Jin, Young Ho

2002-04-01

This project aims to develop critical technologies for accident management through securing evaluation frameworks and supporting tools, in order to enhance capabilities coping with severe accidents. For the research goal, firstly under the viewpoint of accident prevention, on-line risk monitoring system and the analysis framework for human error have been developed. Secondly, the training/supporting systems including the training simulator and the off-site risk evaluation system have been developed to enhance capabilities coping with severe accidents. Four kinds of research results have been obtained from this project. Firstly, the framework and taxonomy for human error analysis has been developed for accident management. As the second, the supporting system for accident managements has been developed. Using data that are obtained through the evaluation of off-site risk for Younggwang site, the risk database as well as the methodology for optimizing emergency responses has been constructed. As the third, a training support system, SAMAT, has been developed, which can be used as a training simulator for severe accident management. Finally, on-line risk monitoring system, DynaRM, has been developed for Ulchin 3 and 4 unit

Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.R.

1979-01-01

A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

2003-01-01

The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

2003-01-01

The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

Evaluation of severe accident risk in the Pickering a risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinnie, K.S.; Raina, V.M.

1997-01-01

The nature of the design of commercial power plants is such that significant impacts on public health can only occur if a number of barriers fail. Rigorous design and licensing requirements ensure that the more likely accidents do not fail all these barriers and their contribution to risk is likely to be small. The task of estimating accident risk must, therefore, focus more towards those less likely but potentially more serious combinations of failures that are characterized by the following: a) a large release of fission products into the containment atmosphere, b) a breach in the containment envelope, and c) the existence of a driving force to expel the containment atmosphere to the outside environment. The likelihood of such conditions existing simultaneously during the course of an accident is expected to be small, such that experience and data regarding the behaviour of plant systems under such conditions is sparse or non-existent. The challenge of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is to examine the potential for severe accidents using approaches that are sufficiently detailed and realistic to provide valid information regarding plant risk and susceptibilities, while simple enough to keep the analysis manageable. This paper outlines the key features of the Pickering A Risk Assessment (PARA) (1) and the manner in which it addresses these issues, and provides some insights into the results and conclusions drawn from the study. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

2015-01-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egidi, Demetrio; Foraboschi, Franco P.; Spadoni, Gigliola; Amendola, Aniello

1995-01-01

The paper describes the ARIPAR project aimed at the assessment of the major accident risks connected with storage, process and transportation of dangerous substances in the densely populated Ravenna area in Italy, which includes a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants and minor industries, essentially distributed around an important commercial port. Large quantities of dangerous goods are involved in various transportation forms connected with the industrial and commercial activity of the port. The project started by making a complete inventory of fixed installations and transportation activities capable of provoking major fire, explosion and toxic release events; then relevant accident scenarios were developed for the single hazard sources; probabilities were assigned to the events and consequences were evaluated; finally iso-risk contours and F-N diagrams were evaluated both for the single sources and for the overall area. This required the development of a particular methodology for analysis of area risk and of associated software packages which allowed examination of the relative importance of the different activities and typologies of materials involved. The methodological approach and the results have proved to be very useful for the priority-ranking of risk mitigating interventions and physical planning in a complex area

The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leveque, Francois

2013-01-01

Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

Severe accidents risk assessment as a basis for emergency preparedness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinka, D.; Mikulicic, V.

2000-01-01

The paper demonstrates, by example of the Republic of Croatia, the possibilities of implementing risk assessment as basis for nuclear accident emergency preparedness development. Individual risks of severe accidents for citizens of the biggest Croatian population centers, as well as collective risk for entire population have been assessed using the PRONEL method. The assessment covered 90 power reactors located at a distance up to 1.000 km. The conducted assessment shows the risks for various regions of the Republic of Croatia, and comparison between them. If risk would be taken as basic criterion in nuclear emergency planning, the results of assessment would directly indicate the necessary preparation level for each region. Furthermore, the assessment of risks from individual power plants and power plant types indicates to which facilities the greatest attention should be paid in nuclear accidents preparedness development. Risks from groups of power plants formed in accordance with their respective distance from exposure location shows what kind of tools for determining consequences and protective actions during a nuclear accident should be made available. (author)

Study on risk factors of PWR accidents beyond design basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Seung Hoon; Nah, W. J.; Bang, Y. S.; Oh, D. Y.; Oh, S. H.

2005-01-01

Development of the regulatory guidelines for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA) with high risk requires a detailed investigation of major factors contributing to the event risk. In this study, each event was classified by the level of risk, based on the probabilistic safety assessment results, so that BDBA with high risk could be selected, with consideration of foreign and domestic regulations, and operating experiences. The regulatory requirements and technical backgrounds for the selected accidents were investigated, and effective regulatory approaches for risk reduction of the accidents. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: - Selected high risk BDBA is station blackout, anticipated without scram, total loss of feedwater. - Major contributors to the risk of selected events were investigated, and appropriate assessment of them was recommended for development of the regulatory guidelines

A study on the operator's errors of commission (EOC) in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants: methodology development and application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun; Kang, Da Il

2003-04-01

As the concern on the operator's inappropriate interventions, the so-called Errors Of Commission (EOCs), that can exacerbate the plant safety has been raised, much of interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective has been increased. Also, one of the items in need of improvement for the conventional PSA and HRA that consider only the system-demanding human actions is the inclusion of the operator's EOC events into the PSA model. In this study, we propose a methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be occurring from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. In order to achieve this goal, the following research items have been performed: Firstly, we analysed the error causes or situations contributed to the occurrence of EOCs in several incidents/accidents of nuclear power plants. Secondly, limitations of the advanced HRAs in treating EOCs were reviewed, and a requirement for a new methodology for analysing EOCs was established. Thirdly, based on these accomplishments a methodology for identifying and analysing EOC events inducible from the failures in situation assessment and decision making was proposed and applied to all the accident sequences of YGN 3 and 4 NPP which resulted in the identification of about 10 EOC situations.

Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rickard, Laura N

2014-03-01

Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

Usage of geotechnologies for risk management in radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, T.A.A.; Marques, F.A.P.; Murta, Y.L.

2017-01-01

Through the use of geotechnologies an important tool can be created for risk management in radiation accidents. With the use of the QGIS software (Las Palmas version), it is shown its applicability in situations of radiological emergency, as in the case of the accident with cesium-137 in Goiânia. The work analyses the risk of a possible accident with the deposit of cesium wastes that still remains in the region, aiming to protect the population with the best exit routes and forms of allocation of the residents

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

2008-01-01

The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

Licensing topical report: application of probabilistic risk assessment in the selection of design basis accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, W.J.

1980-06-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is proposed to be used to scrutinize selection of accident sequences. A technique is described in this Licensing Topical Report to identify candidates for Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) utilizing the risk assessment results. As a part of this technique, it is proposed that events with frequencies below a specified limit would not be candidates. The use of the methodology described is supplementary to the traditional, deterministic approach and may result, in some cases, in the selection of multiple failure sequences as DBAs; it may also provide a basis for not considering some traditionally postulated events as being DBAs. A process is then described for selecting a list of DBAs based on the candidates from PRA as supplementary to knowledge and judgments from past licensing practice. These DBAs would be the events considered in Chapter 15 of Safety Analysis Reports of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

Progress in the development of methodology for fusion safety systems studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, S.K.; Cambi, G.; Ciattaglia, S.; Fujii-e, Y.; Seki, Y.

1994-01-01

The development of fusion safety systems-study methodology, including the aspects of schematic classification of overall fusion safety system, qualitative assessment of fusion system for identification of critical accident scenarios, quantitative analysis of accident consequences and risk for safety design evaluation, and system-level analysis of accident consequences and risk for design optimization, by a consortium of international efforts is presented. The potential application of this methodology into reactor design studies will facilitate the systematic assessment of safety performance of reactor designs and enhance the impacts of safety considerations on the selection of design configurations

Hydrogen safety risk assessment methodology applied to a fluidized bed membrane reactor for autothermal reforming of natural gas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Psara, N.; Van Sint Annaland, M.; Gallucci, F.

2015-01-01

The scope of this paper is the development and implementation of a safety risk assessment methodology to highlight hazards potentially prevailing during autothermal reforming of natural gas for hydrogen production in a membrane reactor, as well as to reveal potential accidents related to hydrogen

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

1990-12-01

Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2015-01-01

Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

Assessment of uncertainties in severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.

1990-01-01

Recent progress on the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a tool for qualifying nuclear reactor safety and on research devoted to severe accident phenomena has made severe accident management an achievable goal. Severe accident management strategies may involve operational changes, modification and/or addition of hardware, and institutional changes. In order to achieve the goal of managing severe accidents, a method for assessment of strategies must be developed which integrates PRA methodology and our current knowledge concerning severe accident phenomena, including uncertainty. The research project presented in this paper is aimed at delineating uncertainties in severe accident progression and their impact on severe accident management strategies

Nuclear power plant safety - the risk of accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higson, D.; Crancher, D.W.

1975-08-01

Although it is physically impossible for any nuclear plant to explode like an atom bomb, an accidental release of radioactive material into the environment is conceivable. Three factors reduce the probability of such releases, in dangerous quantities, to an extremely low level. Firstly, there are many safety features built into the plant including a leaktight containment building to prevent the escape of such material. Secondly, the quality of engineering and standards used are far more demanding than in conventional power engineering. Thirdly, strict government licensing and regulatory control is enforced at all phases from design through construction to operation. No member of the general public is known to have been injured or died as a result of any accident to a commercial nuclear power plant. Ten workers have died as a result of over-exposure to radiation from experimental reactors and laboratory work connected with the development of nuclear plant since 1945. Because of this excellent safety record the risk of serious accidents can only be estimated. On the basis of such estimates, the chance of an accident in a nuclear power reactor which could cause a detectable increase in the incidence of radiation-induced illnesses would be less than one chance in a million per year. In a typical highly industrialised society, such as the USA, the estimated risk of an individual being killed by such accidents, from one hundred operating reactors, is no greater than one chance in sixteen million per year. There are undoubtedly risks from reactor accidents but estimates of these risks show that they are considerably less than from other activities which are accepted by society. (author)

Applying the AcciMap methodology to investigate the tragic Sewol Ferry accident in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Samuel; Moh, Young Bo; Tabibzadeh, Maryam; Meshkati, Najmedin

2017-03-01

This study applies the AcciMap methodology, which was originally proposed by Professor Jens Rasmussen (1997), to the analysis of the tragic Sewol Ferry accident in South Korea on April 16, 2014, which killed 304 mostly young people and is considered as a national disaster in that country. This graphical representation, by incorporating associated socio-technical factors into an integrated framework, provides a big-picture to illustrate the context in which an accident occurred as well as the interactions between different levels of the studied system that resulted in that event. In general, analysis of past accidents within the stated framework can define the patterns of hazards within an industrial sector. Such analysis can lead to the definition of preconditions for safe operations, which is a main focus of proactive risk management systems. In the case of the Sewol Ferry accident, a lot of the blame has been placed on the Sewol's captain and its crewmembers. However, according to this study, which relied on analyzing all available sources published in English and Korean, the disaster is the result of a series of lapses and disregards for safety across different levels of government and regulatory bodies, Chonghaejin Company, and the Sewol's crewmembers. The primary layers of the AcciMap framework, which include the political environment and non-proactive governmental body; inadequate regulations and their lax oversight and enforcement; poor safety culture; inconsideration of human factors issues; and lack of and/or outdated standard operating and emergency procedures were not only limited to the maritime industry in South Korea, and the Sewol Ferry accident, but they could also subject any safety-sensitive industry anywhere in the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3-Dimensional Methodology for the Control Rod Ejection Accident Analysis Using UNICORNTM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Chan-su; Um, Kil-sup; Ahn, Dawk-hwan; Kim, Yo-han; Sung, Chang-kyung; Song, Jae-seung

2006-01-01

The control rod ejection accident has been analyzed with STRIKIN-II code using the point kinetics model coupled with conservative factors to address the three dimensional aspects. This may result in a severe transient with very high fuel enthalpy deposition. KNFC, under the support of KEPRI and KAERI, is developing 3-dimensional methodology for the rod ejection accident analysis using UNICORNTM (Unified Code of RETRAN, TORC and MASTER). For this purpose, 3-dimensional MASTER-TORC codes, which have been combined with the dynamic-link library by KAERI, are used in the transient analysis of the core and RETRAN code is used to estimate the enthalpy deposition in the hot rod

Accident selection methodology for TA-55 FSAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Letellier, B.C.; Pan, P.Y.; Sasser, M.K.

1995-01-01

In the past, the selection of representative accidents for refined analysis from the numerous scenarios identified in hazards analyses (HAs) has involved significant judgment and has been difficult to defend. As part of upgrading the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the TA-55 plutonium facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, an accident selection process was developed that is mostly mechanical and reproducible in nature and fulfills the requirements of the Department of Energy (DOE) Standard 3009 and DOE Order 5480.23. Among the objectives specified by this guidance are the requirements that accident screening (1) consider accidents during normal and abnormal operating conditions, (2) consider both design basis and beyond design basis accidents, (3) characterize accidents by category (operational, natural phenomena, etc.) and by type (spill, explosion, fire, etc.), and (4) identify accidents that bound all foreseeable accident types. The accident selection process described here in the context of the TA-55 FSAR is applicable to all types of DOE facilities

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Af Wåhlberg, A E; Barraclough, P; Freeman, J

2015-12-01

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results. The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (rresearch. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

The TE coupled RELAP5/PANTHER/COBRA code package and methodology for integrated PWR accident analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneidesch, Christophe R.; Zhang, Jinzhao; Ammirabile, Luca; Dalleur, Jean-Paul

2006-01-01

At Tractebel Engineering (TE), a dynamic coupling has been developed between the best estimate thermal hydraulics system code RELAP5 and the 3-dimensional neutronics code PANTHER via the transient analysis code linkage program TALINK. An interface between PANTHER and the subchannel core thermal-hydraulic analysis code COBRA 3C has been established for on-line calculation of the Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio (DNBR). In addition to the standard RELAP5-PANTHER coupling, the fully dynamic coupling of the RELAP5/PANTHER/COBRA3C-TE code package can be activated for evaluation purposes in which the PANTHER close-channel thermal-hydraulics module is replaced by the COBRA3C-TE with cross flow modelling and extended T-H flow conditions capabilities. The qualification of the RELAP5-PANTHER coupling demonstrated the robustness achieved by the combined 3-D neutron kinetics/system T-H code package for transient simulations. The coupled TE code package has been approved by the Belgian Safety Authorities and is used at TE for analyzing asymmetric PWR accidents with strong core-system interactions. In particular, the TE coupled code package was first used to develop a main steam line break in hot shutdown conditions (SLBHZP) accident analysis methodology based on the TE deterministic bounding approach. This methodology has been reviewed and accepted by the Belgian Safety Authorities for specific applications. Those specific applications are related to the power up-rate and steam generator replacement project of the Doel 2 plant or to the Tihange-3 SLB accident re-analysis. A coupled feedwater line break (FLB) accident analysis methodology is currently being reviewed for application approval. The results of coupled thermal-hydraulic and neutronic analysis of SLB and FLB show that there exist important margins in the traditional final safety analysis report (FSAR) accident analysis. Those margins can be used to increase the operational flexibility of the plants. Moreover, the

The TE coupled RELAP5/PANTHER/COBRA code package and methodology for integrated PWR accident analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneidesch, Christophe R.; Zhang, Jinzhao; Ammirabile, Luca; Dalleur, Jean-Paul [Suez-Tractebel Engineering, Avenue Ariane 7, B-1200 Brussels (Belgium)

2006-07-01

At Tractebel Engineering (TE), a dynamic coupling has been developed between the best estimate thermal hydraulics system code RELAP5 and the 3-dimensional neutronics code PANTHER via the transient analysis code linkage program TALINK. An interface between PANTHER and the subchannel core thermal-hydraulic analysis code COBRA 3C has been established for on-line calculation of the Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio (DNBR). In addition to the standard RELAP5-PANTHER coupling, the fully dynamic coupling of the RELAP5/PANTHER/COBRA3C-TE code package can be activated for evaluation purposes in which the PANTHER close-channel thermal-hydraulics module is replaced by the COBRA3C-TE with cross flow modelling and extended T-H flow conditions capabilities. The qualification of the RELAP5-PANTHER coupling demonstrated the robustness achieved by the combined 3-D neutron kinetics/system T-H code package for transient simulations. The coupled TE code package has been approved by the Belgian Safety Authorities and is used at TE for analyzing asymmetric PWR accidents with strong core-system interactions. In particular, the TE coupled code package was first used to develop a main steam line break in hot shutdown conditions (SLBHZP) accident analysis methodology based on the TE deterministic bounding approach. This methodology has been reviewed and accepted by the Belgian Safety Authorities for specific applications. Those specific applications are related to the power up-rate and steam generator replacement project of the Doel 2 plant or to the Tihange-3 SLB accident re-analysis. A coupled feedwater line break (FLB) accident analysis methodology is currently being reviewed for application approval. The results of coupled thermal-hydraulic and neutronic analysis of SLB and FLB show that there exist important margins in the traditional final safety analysis report (FSAR) accident analysis. Those margins can be used to increase the operational flexibility of the plants. Moreover, the

Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID:25325460

Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Hirschberg, Stefan

2014-01-01

Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO 2 -emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

1990-12-01

In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. 42 refs., 51 figs., 52 tabs

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

A methodology for accident analysis of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled lead–lithium blanket

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panayotov, Dobromir; Poitevin, Yves; Grief, Andrew; Trow, Martin; Dillistone, Michael

2016-01-01

'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials, and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. Furthermore, the methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCLL TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.

Determining cutoff distances for assessing risks from transportation accident radiation releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Kimura, C.Y.; Brumburgh, G.

1995-01-01

The transportation of radioactive materials throughout the United States and the world is a ubiquitous and sometimes controversial activity. Almost universally, these transportation activities have been performed without major incident, and the safety record for transportation of radioactive material is outstanding compared with the transportation of other hazardous materials. Nevertheless, concerns still exist regarding adequate regulation of radioactive material transportation and accurate assessment of the health risks associated with accidents. These concerns are addressed through certification by the cognizant regulatory authority over the transportation container or the performance of a transportation risk assessment. In a transportation risk assessment, accident situations are examined, frequencies are estimated, and consequences resulting from the accident are analyzed and evaluated for acceptance. A universal question with any transportation risk assessment that examines the radiological consequences from release accidents is, At what distance may the dispersion analysis be terminated? This paper examines cutoff distances and their consequences for assessing health risks from radiological transportation releases

Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

Science.gov (United States)

Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

2012-01-01

The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

2016-05-01

Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human error risk management for engineering systems: a methodology for design, safety assessment, accident investigation and training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacciabue, P.C.

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to tackle methodological issues associated with the inclusion of cognitive and dynamic considerations into Human Reliability methods. A methodology called Human Error Risk Management for Engineering Systems is presented that offers a 'roadmap' for selecting and consistently applying Human Factors approaches in different areas of application and contains also a 'body' of possible methods and techniques of its own. Two types of possible application are discussed to demonstrate practical applications of the methodology. Specific attention is dedicated to the issue of data collection and definition from specific field assessment

A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M.G.

2012-01-01

Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by ''rare''? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate "1"3"7Cs and gaseous "1"3"1I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted "1"3"7Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of "1"3"7Cs and "1"3"1I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

Risk assessment of DOE defense program packages in a beyond 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.; Bennion, J.S.; Moore, J.E.

1992-01-01

A comprehensive program is being conducted by the DOE to determine the risks related to the domestic transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear weapons. The program is designed to identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences which may exceed the 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment A major objective of this program being performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of Utah is to provide the DOE with the methodology and bases for evaluating highway transportation activities by DOE contractors. This paper describes the approach and the HITRA model which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and route specific data associated with the proposed transportation activity. The model is capable of providing detailed, location and time specific data for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE defense program materials shipments

Evaluation of severe accident safety system value based on averting financial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatch, S.W.; Benjamin, A.S.; Bennett, P.R.

1983-01-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to benchmark the risks from nuclear power plants and to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of severe accident safety features. This paper describes the program in general and presents some preliminary results. These results include estimates of the financial risks associated with the operation of six reference plants and the value of severe accident prevention and mitigation safety systems in averting these risks. The results represent initial calculations and will be iterated before being used to support NRC decisions

Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

2016-05-01

Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Characterizing and insuring against 'the accident' in a light water reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spinrad, B.I.; Hsieh, K.

1979-01-01

Radioactive release from a reactor accident is considered the major risk in the operation of a reactor. The consequences of such release includes various health effects and property damage. A methodology was previously developed to evaluate and compare the risks of various consequences of reactor accidents in monetary terms. This article uses the results obtained from that methodology and a representative situation, in which the severity of what will be called 'the accident' is described by a set of damage resulting from bearing 50% of the total risk. These damages, according to the 1975 Reactor Safety Study, include hundreds of millions of dollars worth of property damage (costs for property decontamination), about 100 cancer deaths/yr over a period of nearly 40 yr and 12-20 genetic effects/yr over a period of several centuries. Identifiable and nonidentifiable types of damages are distinguished between and both are estimated in terms of present-worth dollars. Determination of appropriate levels of insurance against 'the accident' and recommendations as to the manner of public compensation for such an event is based on this information. (author)

Comparison of risk assessment methodologies for nuclear power and nuclear fuels processing plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.; Walker, D.H.

1986-08-01

The utilization of nuclear fission for the generation of electric power or other purposes has as its by-product radioactive fission products. These radioactive fission products represent a potential hazard different in nature from that associated with other process operations or other methods of electrical power generation. As a result the electrical power stations and the facilities designed to process the irradiated fuel to recover the still useful fuel and the products of the irradiation are designed with multiple physical barriers to contain the radioactive fission products in the event that an accident were to occur. In recent years, a disciplined approach has evolved for developing detailed models of a facility and its processes. These models can be used to assess the response for the facility to upset or accident events. The approach is based on an ordered application of available data employing fault tree/event tree methodologies. Data and/or engineering judgment are applied in a probabilisitc framework so the approach has been called Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The approach has been applied to nuclear electric generating facilities and to nuclear fuel processing facilities to assess the potential for release of fission product and transuranium element radionuclides (the hazard) and the resulting risks. The application of the methodology to the electrical generating facilities and to the fuel processing facilities has evolved somewhat differently because of differences in the facilities, availability of failure rate data, and expected outputs. This paper summarizes the two approaches and the differences in them compares the risk results from the existing studies

A calculational methodology for comparing the accident, occupational, and waste-disposal hazards of fusion reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fetter, S.

1985-01-01

A methodology has been developed for calculating indices of three classes of radiological hazards: reactor accidents, occupational exposures, and waste-disposal hazards. Radionuclide inventories, biological hazard potentials (BHP), and various dose-related indices are calculated. In the case of reactor accidents, the critical, 50-year and chronic dose are computed, as well as the number of early deaths and illnesses and late cancer fatalities. For occupational exposure, the contact dose rate is calculated for several times after reactor shutdown. In the case of waste-disposal hazards, the intruder dose and the intruder hazard potential (IHP) are calculated. Sample calculations for the MARS reactor design show the usefulness of the methodology in exploring design improvements

Pursuit of new methodology on risk communication - Research assistance program by open application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoa, N.; Takeshima, K.

2004-01-01

In the latter half of 1990s a series of incidents occurred in Japan such as MOX fuel inspection data falsification, Monju fast breeder reactor sodium leakage accident, Tokai nuclear fuel plant (JCO) criticality accident and so on. It is thought that existing measures based on nuclear technology are not well cope with those incidents and another countermeasure utilizing new methodology of cultural and social sciences was keenly felt by both administration agencies and nuclear industries. Above all, the technique such as risk communication to inform the influence of trouble correctly and convincingly to the residents and mass media and to prevent the harm due to rumor is obviously inevitable. Based on these circumstances, Japanese NISA (The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency) initiated in 2002FY new project by open application in the field of cultural and social sciences, and risk communication was one of the principal subject of study. Up to now, 6 risk communication studies are currently in progress. The project was taken over from NISA to JNES (Incorporated Administrative Agency Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization) since 2004FY. This paper shows the overall structure of the project and the outline of the running studies. (author)

Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

Hand-calculation technique for the evaluation of public risk from a severe accident at a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linn, M.A.; Schmoyer, R.E.

1993-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in the process of promulgating a proposed rule 10 CFR Part 54, ''Requirements for Renewal of Operating Licensees for Nuclear Power Plants,'' which will allow licenses to renew the operating licenses on their nuclear power plants for an additional 20 years beyond the original 40-year limit. A Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS) prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in conjunction with and for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to assess the environmental issues associated with this proposed rule. The evaluation of the environmental impact from postulated severe accidents was included in the GEIS. During this evaluation of postulated severe accidents, a method was developed to estimate the public health consequences of atmospheric releases from severe accidents that is much simpler to use than existing consequence computer codes. From the results of this work, it is concluded that the simplified methodology does provide reasonable and conservative estimates of public risk from atmospheric releases from severe accidents

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

Science.gov (United States)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

MARA - methodology to analyze environmental risks; MARA - elaboracao de metodologia para analise dos riscos ambientais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, Renato F; Yogui, Regiane [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Minniti, Vivienne [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Analise de Riscos; Lopes, Carlos F [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Operacoes de Emergencia; Milaneli, Joao [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Ubatuba, SP (Brazil). Agencia Ambiental de Ubatuba; Torres, Carlos [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transportes, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude; Rodrigues, Gabriela; Mariz, Eduardo [Consultoria Paulista, SP (Brazil)

2005-07-01

In the oil industry, the environmental impact assessment of an accident is both multi and interdisciplinary and goes through several approaches and depths. Due to the enormous complexity of the environmental analyses issues, mainly for being a science in development and not technological consensus, a macro methodology is presented for the purpose of identify areas that can be impacted by pipeline leakages and recommend improvements are applicable working as a table top response plan. The methodology of the Environmental Risk Mapping-MARA for pipelines rows, describes its concept and justifies the adoption of the environmental mapping during Risk Analyses studies, for PETROBRAS/TRANSPETRO new and existing pipelines. The development of this methodology is justified by the fact that it is a practical tool for identification, analysis and categorization of the more vulnerable environmental elements along a pipeline row and vicinities, during simulated occurrence of accidental spills of hydrocarbons in the environment. This methodology is a tool that allows Environmental Agencies and PETROBRAS a better way to manage in advance the Company emergencies. (author)

Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1967-01-01

Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

Deterministic analyses of severe accident issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dua, S.S.; Moody, F.J.; Muralidharan, R.; Claassen, L.B.

2004-01-01

Severe accidents in light water reactors involve complex physical phenomena. In the past there has been a heavy reliance on simple assumptions regarding physical phenomena alongside of probability methods to evaluate risks associated with severe accidents. Recently GE has developed realistic methodologies that permit deterministic evaluations of severe accident progression and of some of the associated phenomena in the case of Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These deterministic analyses indicate that with appropriate system modifications, and operator actions, core damage can be prevented in most cases. Furthermore, in cases where core-melt is postulated, containment failure can either be prevented or significantly delayed to allow sufficient time for recovery actions to mitigate severe accidents

A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) update in light of the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station - 15461

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, K.; Abe, H.; Hirokawa, N.; Satou, C.

2015-01-01

We have performed internal and external event probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for boiling water reactor power nuclear plants to identify the important accident sequence groups and to evaluate the effectiveness of the additional severe accident measures, regarding to the new regulatory requirements implemented after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan in 2011. In addition, we will further update our PRA by extracting problems and improvements from the current PRA, by catching up the state-of-the-art knowledge, modern PRA methodologies in order to contribute voluntarily to safety improvement as well as to comply with regulations. In this document, prior to the extensive PRA updates, we would describe technical contents and qualitative results about PRA updates that have been performed preliminary so far, especially about the external event (seismic) PRA and how to model the additionally deployed severe accident measures (e.g. power supply car, fire engine) so that they can be function external hazards, such as component failure rate of equipment, human reliability 'out of control room', and mission time extension. (authors)

Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M.; Medford, G.T.

1990-06-01

A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied

Effects of the Chernobyl accident on public perceptions of nuclear plant accident risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindell, M.K.; Perry, R.W.

1990-01-01

Assessments of public perceptions of the characteristics of a nuclear power plant accident and affective responses to its likelihood were conducted 5 months before and 1 month after the Chernobyl accident. Analyses of data from 69 residents of southwestern Washington showed significant test-retest correlations for only 10 of 18 variables--accident likelihood, three measures of impact characteristics, three measures of affective reactions, and hazard knowledge by governmental sources. Of these variables, only two had significant changes in mean ratings; frequency of thought and frequency of discussion about a nearby nuclear power plant both increased. While there were significant changes only for two personal consequences (expectations of cancer and genetic effects), both of these decreased. The results of this study indicate that more attention should be given to assessing the stability of risk perceptions over time. Moreover, the data demonstrate that experience with a major accident can actually decrease rather than increase perceptions of threat

APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J

2009-06-01

Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident

APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J [eds.; Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden); Agrenius, Lennart [ed.; Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2009-06-15

Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

Effect of engineered safety features on the risk of hypothetical LMFBR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cybulskis, P.

1978-01-01

The risks of hypothetical core-disruptive accidents in liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors which involve meltthrough of the reactor vessel are compared for two plant designs: one design without specific provisions to accommodate such an accident and the other design with an ex-vessel core catcher and a cvity hot liner. The approach to risk analysis used is that developed in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). Since the probability of occurrence of such an event has not been evaluated, however, insight into the potential risk is gained only on a relative basis. The principal conclusions of this study are: (1) adding a core catcher--hot liner reduces the probabilty of accidents having major consequences; (2) the degree to which hot liner--core catcher systems can reduce the risk of melt-through accidents is limited by the failure probability of these systems; (3) fractional radioactive releases to the environment in the liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactor accidents considered are comparable to those from the light-water reactors evaluated in WASH-1400; (4) since sodium--concrete reactions are a dominant driving force during the accident, the integrity of the cavity liner is as important as the function of the core catcher; (5) there may be other accidents or paths to radioactive releases that are not affected by the addition of a hot liner--core catcher

Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

Science.gov (United States)

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-05-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

Science.gov (United States)

Tabibzadeh, Maryam

According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test

Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Guizhen; Zhang Lei; Lu Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P.J.

2011-01-01

Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China.

[Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

2000-09-09

A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

Estimating the potential impacts of a nuclear reactor accident: methodology and case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cartwright, J.V.; Beemiller, R.M.; Trott, E.A. Jr.; Younger, J.M.

1982-04-01

This monograph describes an industrial impact model that can be used to estimate the regional industry-specific impacts of disasters. Special attention is given to the impacts of possible nuclear reactor accidents. The monograph also presents three applications of the model. The impacts estimated in the case studies are based on (1) general information and reactor-specific data, supplied by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), (2) regional economic models derived from the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) developed at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and (3) additional methodology developed especially for taking into account the unique characteristics of a nuclear reactor accident with respect to regional industrial activity

Assessment of risk of accident at work as an indicator of safe behaviour of workers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pisiewicz, K

1978-10-01

In 1977 the Psychology and Sociology Research Development Unit of the Central Mining Institute carried out research on the influence of assessment of the accident risk on the safe behaviour of workers. 450 workers employed at the longwall faces in 6 coal mines with various accident rates were questioned. It was found that a low assessment of risk favours hazardous operations, contrary to the principles of work safety, while a high assessment of the risk does not favour hazardous operations. Miners employed in coal mines with high accident rates tend to a low assessment of accident risk (arithmetic mean x 48.54) in comparison to miners from mines with low accident rates (arithmetic mean x 53.68). It was also found that the arithmetic mean of assessment of risks among workers who had had an accident at work is lower (x 50.3) than among workers who had not yet had an accident at work (x 55.32).

State-of-the-art report on accident analysis and risk analysis of reprocessing plants in European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomura, Yasushi

1985-12-01

This report summarizes informations obtained from America, England, France and FRG concerning methodology, computer code, fundamental data and calculational model on accident/risk analyses of spent fuel reprocessing plants. As a result, the followings are revealed. (1) The system analysis codes developed for reactor plants can be used for reprocessing plants with some code modification. (2) Calculational models and programs have been developed for accidental phenomenological analyses in FRG, but with insufficient data to prove them. (3) The release tree analysis codes developed in FRG are available to estimate radioactivity release amount/probability via off-gas/exhaustair lines in the case of accidents. (4) The computer codes developed in America for reactor-plant environmental transport/safety analyses of released radioactivity can be applied to reprocessing facilities. (author)

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Problems of probabilistic safety assessment after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Naoki

2011-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology to assure nuclear safety is had great expectations of lessons learned from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident and on the other hand this accident made actualized technical problems of PSA. Effectiveness of current PSA methodology for risk assessment was confirmed by comparing the accident development with accident scenario of PSA and equipment failure rate. From a viewpoint of nuclear safety objective and defense in depth approach of IAEA, technical problems of PSA were (1) extension of PSA for spent fuel pool and waste disposal system as well as level 3PSA for broader environmental contamination and (2) overlapping of accident scenario of plural unit site, balance of high quality plant management and preceding negation, treatment of uncertainty of external events, severe accident measure and human reliability analysis and reflection of disaster prevention capability to level 3PSA. In order to upgrade PSA technology, six proposals were described for nuclear safety and defense in depth, comprehensive evaluation scope and catch-up of latest technology, necessity of strategic preparation of PSA standard, human resources fostering and risk communication. (T. Tanaka)

Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants: Appendices A, B, and C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-12-01

This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two or the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide release and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. Volume 2 of this report contains three appendices, providing greater detail on the methods used, an example risk calculation, and more detailed discussion of particular technical issues found important in the risk studies

The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leveque, Francois

2013-07-01

The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

System response of a DOE Defense Program package in a transportation accident environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.F.; Hovingh, J.; Kimura, C.Y.

1992-01-01

The system response in a transportation accident environment is an element to be considered in an overall Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) framework. The system response analysis uses the accident conditions and the subsequent accident progression analysis to develop the accident source term, which in turn, is used in the consequence analysis. This paper proposes a methodology for the preparation of the system response aspect of the TSRA

[Risk assessment expanded accident insurance for children].

Science.gov (United States)

Sittaro, N A

1998-08-01

Disability is a well known and tragic event for children. While adults are an established group for specific disability insurance cover, children were often neglected in the past. Although parents, organizations and paediatricans are aware of the risk, children specific incidence rates for disability are hardly available. The only sufficient source for some statistical data are the accident statistics because they represent a substantial group of specific cause related disability for children. Incidence rates for disease related chronic severe impairment or disability in children are either derived by single disease research or actuarial calculation of the German Social Disability Registration. Based on this statistical background, an extended accident insurance for children was introduced in Germany covering both accidents and disabling diseases. The key limitation for all variations of this insurance are exclusion clauses for congential diseases and mental disorders. This insurance requires a new approach in underwriting of the health risks. Because of the substantial number of impaired children, a simple decline of substandard cases are unacceptable. The early experience or medical underwriting shows predominantly health impairments of the following types: allergies, bronchial asthma, ectopic eczema (neurodermitis), disorders of speech and articulation, vision disorders and mental impairments. The suggested solution for underwriting of substandard risks is the predetermination of the possible future maximum degree of disability. The need for underwriting guidelines is supported by the market impact of the new disability cover with thousands of insurance policies issued in the first month after introduction.

FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JOON-EON YANG

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jooneon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-02-15

The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

Science.gov (United States)

Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

2004-01-01

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

The potential importance of water pathways for spent fuel transportation accident risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostmeyer, R.M.

1986-01-01

This paper analyzes the potential importance of water pathway contamination for spent fuel transportation accident risk using a ''worst-case'' water contamination scenario. The scenario used for the analysis involves an accident release that occurs near a reservoir. Water pathway doses are compared to doses for accident releases in urban or agricultural areas. The results of the analysis indicate that water pathways are not important for assessing the risk of transporting spent reactor fuel by truck or by rail

TEPCO's costs and risks which invited the nuclear power plant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soeda, Takashi

2017-01-01

The National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (Diet Accident Investigation Commission) considered two patterns against the tsunami risk of nuclear plant: (1) Risk management for the purpose of safety (Pattern A), and (2) Risk management for the purpose of utilization rate and cost of nuclear reactor (Pattern B). Pattern B emphasizes avoiding 'countermeasure cost generation' and 'operation shutdown' rather than preparing for a tsunami that we do not know when to come. Diet Accident Investigation Commission analyzed that the behavioral principles concerning the crisis response of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) had the stronger tendency of Pattern B. Regarding the accident of TEPCO, there were class actions that asked the responsibility of TEPCO and the government. This paper examined the contents of the opinions of government-side experts submitted for this issue. The government-side experts argued that there was no 'scientific consensus' for tsunami forecast, and that preliminary measures against unexpected tsunami was impossible. However, both of these government's arguments are irrational due to difference from the fact. TEPCO president at the time of accident insisted in the firm that 'cost cut in another dimension' was indispensable and reduced expenses. TEPCO and the government had continued Pattern B, even knowing that tsunami risk measures were insufficient from more than ten years ago. (A.O.)

Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

2014-01-01

Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

Phenomenological analyses and their application to the Defense Waste Processing Facility probabilistic safety analysis accident progression event tree. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinich, D.A.; Thomas, J.K.; Gough, S.T.; Bailey, R.T.; Kearnaghan, D.P.

1995-01-01

In the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Safety Analysis Reports (SARs) for the Savannah River Site (SRS), risk-based perspectives have been included per US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.23. The NUREG-1150 Level 2/3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology was selected as the basis for calculating facility risk. The backbone of this methodology is the generation of an Accident Progression Event Tree (APET), which is solved using the EVNTRE computer code. To support the development of the DWPF APET, deterministic modeling of accident phenomena was necessary. From these analyses, (1) accident progressions were identified for inclusion into the APET; (2) branch point probabilities and any attendant parameters were quantified; and (3) the radionuclide releases to the environment from accidents were determined. The phenomena of interest for accident progressions included explosions, fires, a molten glass spill, and the response of the facility confinement system during such challenges. A variety of methodologies, from hand calculations to large system-model codes, were used in the evaluation of these phenomena

Perceptions of risk factors for road traffic accidents

OpenAIRE

Smith, Andrew; Smith, Hugo

2017-01-01

Research has identified a number of risk factors for road traffic accidents. Some of these require education of drivers and a first step in this process is to assess perceptions of these risk factors to determine the current level of awareness. An online survey examined risk perception with the focus being on driver behavior, risk taking and fatigue. The results showed that drivers’ perceptions of the risk from being fatigued was lower than the perceived risk from the other factors.

Sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing in truck drivers : risk analysis of road accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Catarino, Rosa; Spratley, Jorge; Catarino, Isabel; Lunet, Nuno; Pais-Clemente, Manuel

2014-03-01

Portugal has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in Europe. A clear association between sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and traffic accidents has been previously demonstrated. This study aimed to determine prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and other sleep disorder symptoms among truck drivers and to identify which individual traits and work habits are associated to increased sleepiness and accident risk. We evaluated a sample of 714 truck drivers using a questionnaire (244 face-to-face interviews, 470 self-administered) that included sociodemographic data, personal habits, previous accidents, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and the Berlin questionnaire (BQ). Twenty percent of drivers had EDS and 29 % were at high risk for having obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Two hundred sixty-one drivers (36.6 %) reported near-miss accidents (42.5 % sleep related) and 264 (37.0 %), a driving accident (16.3 % sleep related). ESS score ≥ 11 was a risk factor for both near-miss accidents (odds ratio (OR)=3.84, paccidents (OR=2.25, paccidents (OR=3.30, p=0.03). We found an association between high Mallampati score (III-IV) and near misses (OR=1.89, p=0.04). In this sample of Portuguese truck drivers, we observed a high prevalence of EDS and other sleep disorder symptoms. Accident risk was related to sleepiness and antidepressant use. Identifying drivers at risk for OSAS should be a major priority of medical assessment centers, as a public safety policy.

3-Dimensional Methodology for the Control Rod Ejection Accident Analysis Using UNICORN{sup TM}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Chan-su; Um, Kil-sup; Ahn, Dawk-hwan [Korea Nuclear Fuel Company, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yo-han; Sung, Chang-kyung [KEPRI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Song, Jae-seung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2006-07-01

The control rod ejection accident has been analyzed with STRIKIN-II code using the point kinetics model coupled with conservative factors to address the three dimensional aspects. This may result in a severe transient with very high fuel enthalpy deposition. KNFC, under the support of KEPRI and KAERI, is developing 3-dimensional methodology for the rod ejection accident analysis using UNICORNTM (Unified Code of RETRAN, TORC and MASTER). For this purpose, 3-dimensional MASTER-TORC codes, which have been combined with the dynamic-link library by KAERI, are used in the transient analysis of the core and RETRAN code is used to estimate the enthalpy deposition in the hot rod.

Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire

Science.gov (United States)

Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K.

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. MATERIAL AND METHODS A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. RESULTS The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m2). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). CONCLUSION The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers. PMID:29755810

AN EFFECTIVE RISK-PREVENTIVE MODEL PROPOSAL FOR OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT SHIPYARDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ozge Acuner

2016-03-01

Full Text Available According to the statistics of occupational accidents, it is observed that the number of accidents occurred in shipbuilding industry is high and the rate of deaths and serious injuries among these accidents is higher than in other industries. However, the number of the studies to prevent these accidents in both industrial and scientific practices is considerably low. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an efficient risk preventive model in accordance with occupational health and safety regulations for industrial organizations. The approach proposed in this study differs from those described in the literature, because it is based on fuzzy set theory in order to cope with uncertainties on probability and severity definitions in terms of occupational health and safety. Furthermore, in this paper, risk severity is considered in terms of harm to worker, harm to environment, and harm to hardware, whereas in the literature, risk severity is generally considered solely in terms of only harm to worker. Then, risk magnitude is obtained by utilizing fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is applied to a shipyard located in the Marmara Region in order to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

2007-11-01

Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

Methodological aspects of core meltdown accidents frequency estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthis, P.

1984-01-01

A survey is given of the work of the ecological institute relating to models and methods used in the German Risk Study for the assessment of core meltdown accident frequency. A statistical model used by the ecological institute for the estimation of the outage behaviour of components is taken as a comparison, which leads to the conclusion that no appropriate methods for the assessment of component reliability are available to date. Furthermore, there are no secured methods for error propagation computation. The lower limits for the ranges of reliability of components are calculated by approximation. As a result of imperfect modelling and of a number of methodical inaccuracies and neglects, the German Risk Study underestimates the ranges of component reliability by a factor of 3 to 70 (depending on the type of component). (RF) [de

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

Science.gov (United States)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Application of precursor methodology in initiating frequency estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.

1991-01-01

The precursor methodology developed in recent years provides a consistent technique to identify important accident sequence precursors. It relies on operational events (extracting information from actual experience) and infers core damage scenarios based on expected safety system responses. The ranking or categorization of each precursor is determined by considering the full spectrum of potential core damage sequences. The methodology estimates the frequency of severe core damage based on the approach suggested by Apostolakis and Mosleh, which may lead to a potential overestimation of the severe-accident sequence frequency due to the inherent dependencies between the safety systems and the initiating events. The methodology is an encompassing attempt to incorporate most of the operating information available from nuclear power plants and is an attractive tool from the point of view of risk management. In this paper, a further extension of this methodology is discussed with regard to the treatment of initiating frequency of the accident sequences

Sleep apnea-related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

2015-03-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. CPAP. The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65-80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). The MVA risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with OSA suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Perko, Tanja

2011-07-01

Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Applications of probabilistic accident consequence evaluation in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

Are presented the approaches and results of the application of Accident Consequence Evaluation methodologies in on emergency in the Juragua Nuclear Power Plant site and a population evaluation of a planned NPP site in the east of the country Findings on population sector weighing and assessment of effectiveness of primary countermeasures in the event of sever accidents (SST1 and PWR4 source terms) in Juragua NPP site are discussed Results on comparative risk-based evaluation of the population predicted evolution (in 3 temporal horizons: base year, 2005 year and 2050 year) for the planned site are described. Evaluation also included sector risk weighing, risk importance of small towns in the nearby of the effects on risk of population freezing and relocation of these villages

Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

OpenAIRE

Perone, Christian S.

2015-01-01

This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

1994-01-01

The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia's Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented

Calculation of health risks from spent-nuclear-fuel transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

1987-01-01

Models developed to analyze potential radiological health risks from various accident scenarios during transportation of spent nuclear fuels are described. The models are designed both for detailed route-specific risk analyses and for use in conducting overall risk analyses for route selection and related decision-making activities. The radiological risks calculated include individual dose commitments, collective dose commitments, and long-term (100-year) environmental dose commitments to a population following release of radioactivity. To facilitate route-specific analysis, a state-level database was developed and incorporated into the model. Route-specific analysis is demonstrated by the calculation of radiological risks resulting from various accident scenarios, as postulated by the recent US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Modal Study, for four representative states selected from various regions of the United States. 10 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

Application and inspiration of risk control in dose control in Fukushima nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shaoqing; Chen Yan; Chai Jianshe; Zhang Chunming

2013-01-01

The article introduced the basic concept of risk and risk control methods. Using the risk control methods, we analyzed and evaluated the actions to control dose of public and occupational radiation exposure in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, especially found out the weak points of these actions, and finally discussed the application of the risk control methods in dose management during nuclear accidents. (authors)

Interfacing systems loss of coolant accident (ISLOCA) pressure capacity methodology and Davis-Besse results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesley, D.A.

1991-01-01

A loss of coolant accident resulting from the overpressurization by reactor coolant fluid of a system designed for low-pressure, low-temperature service has been identified as a potential contributor to nuclear power plant risk. In this paper, the methodology developed to assess the probability of failure as a function of internal pressure is presented, and sample results developed for the controlling failure modes and locations of four fluid systems at the Davis-Besse Plant are shown. Included in this evaluation are the tanks, heat exchangers, filters, pumps, valves, and flanged connections for each system. The variability in the probability of failure is included, and the estimated leak rates or leak areas are given for the controlling modes of failure. For this evaluation, all failures are based on quasistatic pressures since the probability of dynamic effects resulting from such causes as water hammer have been initially judged to be negligible for the Davis-Besse plant ISLOCA

Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

1992-11-01

Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong; Kim, HyeongTaek

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

Radiological health risks from accidents during transportation of spent nuclear fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

1988-01-01

Potential radiological health risks from severe accident scenarios during the transportation of spent nuclear fuels are estimated. These extremely low probability, but potentially credible, scenarios are characterized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Modal Study in terms of the maximum credible structural responses and/or the maximum credible cask temperature responses. In some accident scenarios, the spent nuclear fuel casks are assumed to be breached, resulting in the release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Models have been developed to estimate radiological health consequences, including potential short-term exposures and health effects to individuals and potential long-term environmental dose commitments and health effects to the population. The population risks are calculated using state-level data, and the resulting overall health risks are compared for several levels of cleanup effort to determine the relative effects on long-term risks to the population in the event of an accident. 4 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

Accident risk. Chapter 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-01-01

Following a historical introduction in which WASH-740, WASH-1400, Swedish, Finnish, Scandinavian, Netherlands and West German analyses are briefly presented, the concept of risk itself is discussed, distinguishing between objective and subjective aspects, and between voluntary and involuntary risk. Risk analysis is briefly described and an attempt made to define acceptable risk. In treating the safety philosophy of nuclear power plants the engineered safety precautions are presented. The numerical results of the analysis made for Norwegian conditions are presented and discussed. Underground siting, which has been much discussed in Norway is also treated, and emergency planning briefly discussed. The probability and consequences of core meltdown in a light water reactor are then discussed, and the possible faults leading to this, both internal, human errors and external impacts are analysed. The failure mechanisms in the containment building which could lead to the release of activity are discussed, followed by the dispersion of the activity and the health and economic consequences. The accidents at Wuergassen and Brown's Ferry are briefly described as examples. A brief discussion of nuclear insurance and nuclear law in Norway form the concluding sections. (JIW)

Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

OpenAIRE

Kaiser, Jan Christian

2012-01-01

Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 4; 62) severe accidents am...

Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

2018-06-01

Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PSA methodology development and application in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazuo Sato; Toshiaki Tobioka; Kiyoharu Abe

1987-01-01

The outlines of Japanese activities on development and application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodologies are described. First the activities on methodology development are described for system reliability analysis, operational data analysis, core melt accident analysis, environmental consequence analysis and seismic risk analysis. Then the methodoligy application examples by the regulatory side and the industry side are described. (author)

Effect of consecutive driving on accident risk: a comparison between passenger and freight train driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hsin-Li; Ju, Lai-Shun

2008-11-01

This study combined driver-responsible accidents with on-board driving hours to examine the effect of consecutive driving on the accident risk of train operations. The data collected from the Taiwan Railway Administration for the period 1996-2006 was used to compute accident rates for varied accumulated driving hours for passenger and freight trains. The results showed that accident risk grew with increased consecutive driving hours for both passenger and freight trains, and doubled that of the first hour after four consecutive hours of driving. Additional accident risk was found for freight trains during the first hour due to required shunting in the marshalling yards where there are complex track layouts and semi-automatic traffic controls. Also, accident risk for train driving increased more quickly over consecutive driving hours than for automobile driving, and accumulated fatigue caused by high working pressure and monotony of the working environment are considered to be the part of the reason. To prevent human errors accidents, enhancing safety equipment, driver training programs, and establishing a sound auditing system are suggested and discussed.

Reflection of risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogino, Haruyuki

2012-01-01

At the third symposium corresponding to the Fukushima accident held by the Japan Health Physics Society (JHPS) in December 2011, Youth Researcher's Association of JHPS presented 'risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima accident'. Focusing on the presentation, this article summarized social response of radiation risk in 9 months and activities of 'Q and A site that provides public with questions and answers related to radiation and daily life' by Society members as radiation protection experts after the Fukushima accident. The author raised some two problems related with (1) what and how should be 'judgments of best experts' reflecting the BSE case as 'trans-science' problem and (2) what's 'recommendation/standards document to be referred to' harmonizing with trend of international standards. Risk communication network should be not only between 'experts' and 'public' but also including international organizations. (T. Tanaka)

A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

1991-01-01

Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a PWR to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a BWR to prevent containment failure

Risk of Occupational Accidents in Workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Garbarino, Sergio; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Sanna, Antonio; Mancardi, Gian Luigi; Magnavita, Nicola

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the single most important preventable medical cause of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and driving accidents. OSA may also adversely affect work performance through a decrease in productivity, and an increase in the injury rate. Nevertheless, no systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between OSA and work accidents has been performed thus far. Methods: PubMed, PsycInfo, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched. Out of an initial list of 1,099 papers, 10 studies (12,553 participants) were eligible for our review, and 7 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The overall effects were measured by odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). An assessment was made of the methodological quality of the studies. Moderator analysis and funnel plot analysis were used to explore the sources of between-study heterogeneity. Results: Compared to controls, the odds of work accident was found to be nearly double in workers with OSA (OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.53–3.10). Occupational driving was associated with a higher effect size. Conclusions: OSA is an underdiagnosed nonoccupational disease that has a strong adverse effect on work accidents. The nearly twofold increased odds of work accidents in subjects with OSA calls for workplace screening in selected safety-sensitive occupations. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1171. Citation: Garbarino S, Guglielmi O, Sanna A, Mancardi GL, Magnavita N. Risk of occupational accidents in workers with obstructive sleep apnea: systematic review and meta-analysis. SLEEP 2016;39(6):1211–1218. PMID:26951401

Nuclear accidents and epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

A consultation on epidemiology related to the Chernobyl accident was held in Copenhagen in May 1987 as a basis for concerted action. This was followed by a joint IAEA/WHO workshop in Vienna, which reviewed appropriate methodologies for possible long-term effects of radiation following nuclear accidents. The reports of these two meetings are included in this volume, and cover the subjects: 1) Epidemiology related to the Chernobyl nuclear accident. 2) Appropriate methodologies for studying possible long-term effects of radiation on individuals exposed in a nuclear accident. Figs and tabs

Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

1987-11-01

Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

2013-01-01

This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

A methodology for the evaluation of fuel rod failures under transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashid, J.Y.R.; Machiels, A.J.

2004-01-01

Recent studies on long-term behavior of high-burnup spent fuel have shown that under normal conditions of stor-age, challenges to cladding integrity from various postulated damage mechanisms, such as delayed hydride crack-ing, stress-corrosion cracking and long-term creep, would not lead to any significant safety concerns during dry storage, and regulatory rules have subsequently been established to ensure that a compatible level of safety is maintained. However, similar safety assurances for spent fuel transportation have not yet been developed, and further studies are currently being conducted to evaluate the conditions under which transportation-related safety issues can be resolved. One of the issues presently under evaluation is the ability and the extent of the fuel as-semblies to maintain non-reconfigured geometry during transportation accidents. This evaluation may determine whether, or not, the shielding, confinement, and criticality safety evaluations can be performed assuming initial fuel assembly geometries. The degree to which spent fuel re-configuration could occur during a transportation accident would depend to a large degree on the number of fuel rod failures and the type and geometry of the failure modes. Such information can only be developed analytically, as there is no direct experimental data that can provide guidance on the level of damage that can be expected. To this end, the paper focuses on the development of a modeling and analysis methodology that deals with this general problem on a generic basis. First consideration is given to defining acci-dent loading that is equivalent to the bounding, although analytically intractable, hypothetical transportation acci-dent of a 9-meter drop onto essentially unyielding surface, which is effectively a condition for impact-limiters de-sign. Second, an analytically robust material constitutive model, an essential element in a successful structural analysis, is required. A material behavior model

The trade-off between expected risk and the potential for large accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.; de Leon, G.; Cullingford, M.

1984-01-01

This paper, by Niehaus, de Leon, and Cullingford, examines the relationship between expected risk and the potential for large accidents. Using historical data for airplane accidents from 19471980, the authors show that a reduction of the expected value of risk often results in an increase in the potential for catastrophe. Phrased differently, the authors suggest that there may be a nenessary trade-off between high-probability/low-consequence risk and low-probability/high-consequence risk. The implications of this study for energy systems, for oil and gas supply, and for nuclear systems are also given

Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bellamy, Linda J.; Damen, Martin; Jan Manuel, Henk; Aneziris, Olga N.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Oh, Joy I.H.

2015-01-01

The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population. - Highlights: • Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given. • Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004. • Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors. • Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents. • Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks

Risk of in-itinere accident in primary health care professionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verónica A. Cruz-Toscano

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background Traffic accidents represent a priority for public health since they are responsible for high mortality tolls, elevated economic costs and a significant social impact. Ecuador ranks as the seventh country in the World with a higher mortality rate. Aims To know the risk level of in-itinere accidents for workers of a primary care facility. Methods Descriptive transversal study through the application of a basic survey from 136 sanitary and non-sanitary professionals. Results The means to commute used by workers corresponds to public transportation (57.4 per cent and automobile (26.5 per cent, being the time invested in traveling to work is greater than 30 minutes. A statistical significant relationship can be observed between the transportation mean used to commute to the medical center and the time invested with the ending score of the risk to suffer a TA (p<0.05 for workers. Conclusion A necessity to establish road safety programs rises to control such risk factors that influence the possibility to suffer a commuting accident for the sanitary personnel.

Screening radon risks: A methodology for policymakers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisinger, D.S.; Simmons, R.A.; Lammering, M.; Sotiros, R.

1991-01-01

This paper provides an easy-to-use screening methodology to estimate potential excess lifetime lung cancer risk resulting from indoor radon exposure. The methodology was developed under U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation sponsorship of the agency's Integrated Environmental Management Projects (IEMP) and State/Regional Comparative Risk Projects. These projects help policymakers understand and use scientific data to develop environmental problem-solving strategies. This research presents the risk assessment methodology, discusses its basis, and identifies appropriate applications. The paper also identifies assumptions built into the methodology and qualitatively addresses methodological uncertainties, the direction in which these uncertainties could bias analyses, and their relative importance. The methodology draws from several sources, including risk assessment formulations developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Radiation Programs, the EPA's Integrated Environmental Management Project (Denver), the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. When constructed as a spreadsheet program, the methodology easily facilitates analyses and sensitivity studies (the paper includes several sensitivity study options). The methodology will be most helpful to those who need to make decisions concerning radon testing, public education, and exposure prevention and mitigation programs.26 references

Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Spiekerman, G.; Dones, R.

1997-01-01

This paper addresses one of the major limitations of the current comparative studies of environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues. The assessments concern full energy chains associated with fossil sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. A comprehensive severe accidents database has been established. Thanks to the variety of information sources used, it exhibits in comparison with other corresponding databases a far more extensive coverage of the energy-related accidents. For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic approach has been employed and extended to cover the economic consequences of power reactor accidents. Results of comparisons between the various energy chains are shown and discussed along with a number of current issues in comparative assessment of severe accidents. As opposed to the previous studies, the aim of the present work has been, to cover whenever possible, a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 18 refs

Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-03-01

This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC's Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs

Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

2014-01-01

In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

Assessment of accident risks from german nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.

1979-01-01

The German risk study are presented. The main objectives can be summed up as follows: (a) An assessment of the societal risk due to accidents in nuclear power plants with reference to German conditions; (b) To get experience in the field of risk analysis and to provide a basis for estimation of uncertainties; (c) To provide guidance for future activities in the German Reactor Safety Research Program. Finally several conclusions reached by this study are discussed. (author)

Risk management and role of schools of the Tokai-village radiation accident in 1999. Safety education and risk management before and during the radiation accident from the standpoint of school nurse teachers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akisaka, Masafumi; Nakamura, Tomoko; Satake, Tsuyoshi

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate safety education and risk management in the neighborhood schools before and during the radiation accident in the Tokai-village in 1999 from the standpoint of school nurse teachers. Eighty-six school nurse teachers from 44 elementary, 25 junior-high, 14 high and 3 handicapped children's schools were surveyed within neighboring towns and villages. The main results were as follows: There had been few risk management systems against the potential radiation accidents including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection in all of the neighboring schools. There were no significant difference in risk management systems among the schools before the accident, though the anxiety rates of school children were significantly higher in the schools nearest to the accident site. Some radiation risk management systems must be established in neighboring schools including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection. (author)

The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, Finn

1996-01-01

This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s...... and consequent changes in job content. It was hypothesized that the combined effect of these factors might lead accident risks, both non-specific (aggregated) and specific (by kind), to increase with age. Accident risk ratios (ARRs), however, proved to be higher for younger workers than older ones, in both...... the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological...

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

2016-01-01

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

1993-10-01

The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km 2 . The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs

Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drottz-Sjoeberg, B M [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research; Rumyantseva, G M; Martyvshov, A N [The Serbsky Research Institute, Moscow, (Russian Federation)

1993-10-01

The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km{sup 2}. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs.

Application of dynamic probabilistic safety assessment approach for accident sequence precursor analysis: Case study for steam generator tube rupture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Han Sul; Heo, Gyun Young [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Wan [Incheon National University, Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

Application of dynamic probabilistic safety assessment approach for accident sequence precursor analysis: Case study for steam generator tube rupture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Han Sul; Heo, Gyun Young; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective

Insights from implementation of a risk management methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahn, J.A.; Germann, R.P.; Jacobs, R.R.

1992-01-01

In 1988, GPU Nuclear (GPUN) Corporation embarked on a research effort to identify or develop an appropriate methodology for proactively managing risks. The objective of this effort was to increase its ability to identify potential risks and to aid resource allocation decision making for risk control. Such a methodology was presented at a risk management symposium sponsored by GPUN in September of 1989. A pilot project based on this methodology has been conducted at GPUN to test and validate the elements of the methodology and to compare the results of its application with current corporate methods for guiding risk decision making. The pilot project also led to a follow-up policy-capturing study to elicit information about the various risk decision-making models of GPUN decision makers. The combination of these endeavors provided an opportunity to gain numerous insights with respect to understanding the real value of a risk management process, obtaining acceptance of and commitment to risk management and improving operational aspects of the methodology

Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

Accident consequence assessment and siting criteria development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollas, J.G.

1988-01-01

The methodology developed is based on assessing the average over a large spectrum of meteorological conditions whole body collective dose resulting from a severe reference accident. The assessment of this dose is performed by code CRAC.GAEC, the Greek A.E.C. version of code CRAC2. The collective dose, which is chosen as a measure of the social radiation risk, is compared to the dose corresponding to a level of social risk encountered historically in energy production as a whole. The outcome of the comparison can be the determination of one or more sectors of acceptable sites for a set of specific conditions considered, such as the reactor characteristics. The present approach was aimed to deal with the problems stemming from the demographic idiomorphy of Greece, where one third of the country's population is concentrated in Athens, with the rest of the country exhibiting small population densities. One of the applications of the methodology developed concerned the identification of acceptable sites near Athens. For these sites the risk from the reference severe accident of a standard reactor to the over three millions inhabitants of Athens is less tan the risk corresponding to the same population that is due to energy production

Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data.

Science.gov (United States)

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

2013-01-01

Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Factors Affecting Accidents Risks among Truck Drivers In Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elshamly Ahmed Fathalla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Egypt is ranked among the countries with the highest rates of road accidents. According to the American Chamber of Commerce more than 96% of Egypt's goods are transported by trucks and due to their large volume and excessive weight, the severity and number of truck accident fatalities are much higher than other vehicles in Egypt. The present study aims at identifying truck driver's behavior and its influence on crash involvement. Due to the shortage in recording accident data and the inaccurate road accident audit, data was collected from several governorates in Egypt through questionnaire. Questionnaire forms were filled out through personal interviews with truck drivers. The total number of respondents was 643. The final analysis was made on the 615 questionnaires with complete answers. The data was analyzed and logistic regression was applied to accident related data to examine the contributing factors affecting accident occurrence of truck drivers. Results showed that fatigue in terms of driving hours (continuous and total and lack of sleep, drug use during driving, and driver obesity are the most influencing factors on the occurrence of truck accidents in Egypt. The findings of this research highlight the important role human factors have on the risk of crash involvement amongst Egypt's truck drivers and the need to improve their work conditions.

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

2017-04-20

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Analysis of nuclear accidents and associated problems relevant to public perception of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naschi, G.; Petrangeli, G.

1993-01-01

The analytical study of nuclear accidents, even if they are limited in number, forms a significant part of the vast discipline of industrial plant risk analysis. The retrospective analysis of the causes and various elements which contributed to the evolution of real accidents, as well as, the evaluation of the consequences and lessons learned, constitute a bank of information which, when suitably elaborated through a process of rational synthesis, can strongly influence the preparation of safety normatives, plant design specifications, environmental impacts assessments, and the perception of risk. This latter aspect is gaining importance today as growing public awareness and sensitivity towards the development and use of new technologies now bear heavily on new plant decision making. This paper examines how the public perception of risk regarding nuclear energy has been influenced by the events surrounding the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accidents and the way in which information dissemination concerning these accidents was handled by mass media

Risk impact of two accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

1992-01-01

This report probabilistic Risk Assessment is used to evaluate two accident management strategies: intentionally depressurizing the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor to prevent containment-pressurization during high pressure melt ejection, and flooding the containment of a boiling water reactor to prevent or delay vessel breach. Sensitivity studies indicated that intentional depressurization would not provide a significant risk reduction at Surry. A preliminary evaluation of the containment flooding strategy indicated that it might prove beneficial for some plants, but that further strategy development would be needed to fully evaluate the strategy-

Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-05-01

A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

Use of PSA and severe accident assessment results for the accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, S. H.; Kim, H. G.; Jang, H. S.; Moon, S. K.; Park, J. U.

1993-12-01

The objectives for this study are to investigate the basic principle or methodology which is applicable to accident management, by using the results of PSA and severe accident research, and also facilitate the preparation of accidents management program in the future. This study was performed as follows: derivation of measures for core damage prevention, derivation of measures for accident mitigation, application of computerized tool to assess severe accident management

Use of PSA and severe accident assessment results for the accident management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, S H; Kim, H G; Jang, H S; Moon, S K; Park, J U [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

1993-12-15

The objectives for this study are to investigate the basic principle or methodology which is applicable to accident management, by using the results of PSA and severe accident research, and also facilitate the preparation of accidents management program in the future. This study was performed as follows: derivation of measures for core damage prevention, derivation of measures for accident mitigation, application of computerized tool to assess severe accident management.

Patients' Risk of Causing Traffic Violations and Traffic Accidents while Driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Šestan, Nevenka; Dodič Fikfak, Metoda; Balantič, Zvone

2017-09-01

This study examines whether drivers suffering from epilepsy, chronic alcoholism and/or hazardous drinking, psychoactive substance abuse, other diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioural disorders, cardiovascular diseases, severe diabetes, and severe eye diseases are at a greater risk of causing traffic accidents and traffic violations than drivers that cause accidents and violations without these diagnoses. A case control study was carried out. The cases were drivers checked by a special medical committee in the period observed suffering from the diseases listed above. Matched controls were taken from the cohort of those that caused accidents and violations during the same period observed. The descriptive statistics were followed by calculation of correlations, t-tests and χ 2 , and the odds ratio. Drivers with referrals for diseases of the nervous system are five times more likely to cause a traffic accident compared to controls (OR=5.18; 95% CI=2.59-10.34); in addition, a high risk is associated with drivers with mental and behavioural disorders (OR=3.64; 95% CI=1.91-6.94), drivers with epilepsy (OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.01-3.92), and drivers addicted to alcohol (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.01-2.89). Drivers suffering from addiction, a disease of the nervous system, or epilepsy are more likely to cause a traffic accident, which is a contribution to the inconclusive findings of previous studies. The multiple reasons for risks of patients suffering from mental and behavioural disorders need to be further investigated. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turvey, F J [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

1996-10-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of `tolerable` risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid.

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turvey, F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.

Science.gov (United States)

Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T

1999-11-01

Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.

Cycling to work in Brazil: users profile, risk behaviors, and traffic accident occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Bacchieri, Giancarlo; Barros, Aluísio J D; Dos Santos, Janaína V; Gigante, Denise P

2010-07-01

In 2006, we carried out a cross-sectional study in the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, with the aim of outlining the profile of bicycle commuters, analyzing their use of safety equipment and risk behaviors and the association between these variables and involvement in traffic accidents in the previous 12 months. This study was based on the baseline survey carried out prior to an educational intervention aimed at reducing accidents among cyclists. The sample included 1133 male subjects aged 20 years or more, and who used a bicycle for commuting. Crude and adjusted analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. We recorded a total of 152 reported traffic accidents in the 12 months preceding the interview, involving 10.8% of subjects. Most risk behaviors studied and the use of safety equipment showed no significant association with accidents. Only commuting by bicycle seven days per week, as opposed to five or six, and a combination of extremely imprudent behaviors such as zigzagging through traffic, riding after ingesting alcohol, and high-speed riding were found to be risk factors for accidents. Our findings suggest that in the context where the study was done (poor road signaling, limited policing, aggressive driving) changing cyclist behavior may not have substantial impact in terms of accident reduction before other road traffic interventions are implemented. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology of radionuclides dis incorporation in people related to nuclear and radiological accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez F, E. A.

2014-01-01

In this paper a classification of the radiological and nuclear accidents is presented, describing which the activities are, where they have occurred, their incidence and the learned lessons in these successes. The radiological accidents in which radioactive materials intervene can occur anywhere, and they are related to no controlled dangerous sources (abandoned, lost, stolen, or found sources), improper use of dangerous industrial and medical sources, exposition and contamination of people in general by an unknown origin, serious over expositions, menaces and willful misconduct, emergencies during transportation of radioactive material. A person can receive a dose of radiation from an external source, because of radioactive material placed on skin or on equipment, or because of ingestion or inhalation of radiological particles. The ingestion or the inhalation of radioactive material can cause an internal dose to the whole body or to a specific organ during a period of time. That is why a description of the processes of incorporation, the stages of incorporation and a description of the biokinetic models are also realized to understand the ingestion, transference and the excretion of the radioactive elements. In order to offer help to a victim of internal contamination, the dosimetric and medical diagnosis is very important. The most important techniques of dosimetric diagnosis are the dosimetry in vivo (cytogenetics and the counting in vivo of the whole body) and the bioassays. These techniques allow obtain data such as the radionuclide, the target organ, the absorbed dose, etc. At the same time, the doctor in charge must be attentive to the patients symptoms and their manifestation time, since they are an indicator, first, the patient suffered an irradiation, and second, of the range esteem of the received radiation dose. These are the parameters that are useful as criterion to decide if a person has to receive some treatment and select the methodologies that

Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanore, J.M.; Villeroux, C.; Bouscatie, F.; Maigret, N.

1981-09-01

There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

The DOE technology development programme on severe accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhold, R.J.; Moore, R.A.; Theofanous, T.G.

1998-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring a programme in technology development aimed at resolving the technical issues in severe accident management strategies for advanced and evolutionary light water reactors (LWRs). The key objective of this effort is to achieve a robust defense-in-depth at the interface between prevention and mitigation of severe accidents. The approach taken towards this goal is based on the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM). Applications of ROAAM to the severe accident management strategy for the US AP600 advanced LWR have been effective both in enhancing the design and in achieving acceptance of the conclusions and base technology developed in the course of the work. This paper presents an overview of that effort and its key technical elements

Methodology to classify accident sequences of an Individual Plant Examination according to the severe releases for BWR type reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandoval V, S.

2001-01-01

The Light Water Reactor (LWR) operation regulations require to every operating plant to perform of an Individual Plant Examination study (Ipe). One of the main purposes of an Ipe is t o gain a more quantitative understanding of the overall probabilities of core damage and fission product releases . Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) methodologies and Severe Accident Analysis are used to perform Ipe studies. PSA methodologies are used to identify and analyse the set of event sequences that might originate the fission product release from a nuclear power plant; these methodologies are combinatorial in nature and generate thousands of sequences. Among other uses within an Ipe, severe accident simulations are used to determine the characteristics of the fission product release for the identified sequences and in this way, the releases can be understood and characterized. A vast amount of resources is required to simulate and analyse every Ipe sequence. This effort is unnecessary if similar sequences are grouped. The grouping scheme must achieve an efficient trade off between problem reduction and accuracy. The methodology presented in this work enables an accurate characterization and analysis of the Ipe fission product releases by using a reduced problem. The methodology encourages the use of specific plant simulations. (Author)

Multicomponent risk inherent to nuclear or radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poyarkov, V.A.

1997-01-01

A nuclear or radiation emergency response planning is based on expected avertable doses for a short (4 hours, 2 days, 1 week) and a long (50 or 70 years) periods of time. On calculating the doses one should take into account not only the sources of ionizing radiation with their foreseen characteristics, e.g. a half-life, but also the possibility of their probabilistic transformations. It can be illustrated by the chronicle of Chernobyl accident, where for nine days it was impossible to envisage with reliability the quantities of released radionuclides due to many uncontrolled factors related to the scope and character of the zone wreckage. Any other developments of the accident, such as destruction of the under reactor support plate, sinking of the melted zone into a highly radioactive water down at the reactor cavity or changing of the wind could have resulted in a substantial contamination of 3 mln. Kiev and other densely populated area of Ukraine. Another factor to be taken into account in the emergency response is a way of an actual risk perception by the population. The article suggests an approach to take into account the time-dependent secondary sources of exposure and the disparity in accepting the hazard of real risk of an accident by the trained workers and population. (author)

Second-generation antipsychotics and risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Percudani, Mauro; Barbui, Corrado; Fortino, Ida; Tansella, Michele; Petrovich, Lorenzo

2005-10-01

Concern has been recently raised for risperidone and olanzapine, possibly associated with cerebrovascular events in placebo-controlled trials conducted in elderly subjects with dementia. We investigated the relationship between exposure to second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) and occurrence of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly. From the regional database of hospital admissions of Lombardy, Italy, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older with cerebrovascular-related outcomes for the year 2002. From the regional database of prescriptions reimbursed by the National Health Service, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older who received antipsychotic prescriptions during 2001. The 2 databases were linked anonymously using the individual patient code. The proportions of cerebrovascular accidents were 3.31% (95% confidence interval, 2.95-3.69) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to SGAs and 2.37% (95% confidence interval, 2.19-2.57) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to first-generation antipsychotics. After background group differences were controlled for, exposure to SGAs significantly increased the risk of accidents. The analysis of cerebrovascular events in elderly subjects exposed to each individual SGA, in comparison with exposure to haloperidol, showed a significantly increased risk for risperidone only (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.93). These data provide preliminary epidemiological evidence that exposure to SGAs, in comparison with exposure to first-generation antipsychotics, significantly increased the risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

Management of accident risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Compes, P.C.

1987-01-01

The example of the Chernobyl accident and the statistics of the occurrence of accidents make clear the threat to humanity, if one cannot guarantee successful accident prevention in the use and distribution of the projects aimed at. The science of safety, as it is known in the Wuppertal model, makes its contribution to this vital task for the human community. It makes it necessary to create the essential dates and concepts, the methods, principles and techniques based on them and the associated instrumentation. (DG) [de

A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

1992-01-01

Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on decision trees and influence diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a pressurized water reactor to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a boiling water reactor to prevent containment failure

Methodology for technical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

1983-01-01

A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department ' ' Radiation Protection and Health' ' , Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Zurich, Medical Physics Group, Institute of Physics, Zurich (Switzerland); Zhang, Wei [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Oxford (United Kingdom)

2016-03-15

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and

Light water reactor accidents - is there really a major public risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levenson, M [Bechtel Power Corp., San Francisco, CA (USA)

1983-04-01

During the past decade, a major mismatch has developed between the actual public risk from nuclear power and the public perception of that risk. Extensive analyses have been performed on the probability of accidents at nuclear power plants, but such analyses have used assumed consequences rather than those that have been scientifically derived. The assumed consequences have been overstated and needlessly scare the public or lead to unwarranted evacuations. The 40 years of experience in research, development and testing, and the history of actual accidents, provide a sound basis for assessment-a basis that has not been utilized.

Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

Accident information needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

1992-01-01

A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information

Accident information needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

1992-12-31

A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

Accident information needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanson, D.J.; Arcieri, W.C.; Ward, L.W.

1992-01-01

A Five-step methodology has been developed to evaluate information needs for nuclear power plants under accident conditions and the availability of plant instrumentation during severe accidents. Step 1 examines the credible accidents and their relationships to plant safety functions. Step 2 determines the information personnel involved in accident management will need to understand plant behavior. Step 3 determines the capability of the instrumentation to function properly under severe accident conditions. Step 4 determines the conditions expected during the identified severe accidents. Step 5 compares the instrument capabilities and the severe accident conditions to evaluate the availability of the instrumentation to supply needed plant information.

Accident management for severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.; Pratt, W.T.; Lehner, J.; Leonard, M.; Disalvo, R.; Sheron, B.

1988-01-01

The management of severe accidents in light water reactors is receiving much attention in several countries. The reduction of risk by measures and/or actions that would affect the behavior of a severe accident is discussed. The research program that is being conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission focuses on both in-vessel accident management and containment and release accident management. The key issues and approaches taken in this program are summarized. 6 refs

Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

2012-01-01

This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

Science.gov (United States)

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-09

... Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Standard... its Standard Review Plan (SRP), Section 19.0, ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident... assessment (PRA) information and severe accident assessments for new reactors submitted to support design...

Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angelo, P. L.

2009-01-01

The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

An analysis of the human reliability on Three Mile Island II accident considering THERP and ATHEANA methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonseca, Renato Alves da; Alvim, Antonio Carlos Marques

2005-01-01

The research on the Analysis of the Human Reliability becomes more important every day, as well as the study of the human factors and the contributions of the same ones to the incidents and accidents, mainly in complex plants or of high technology. The analysis here developed it uses the methodologies THERP (Technique for Human Error Prediction) and ATHEANA (A Technique for Human Error Analysis), as well as, the tables and the cases presented in THERP Handbook and to develop a qualitative and quantitative study of an occurred nuclear accident. The chosen accident was it of Three Mile Island (TMI). The accident analysis has revealed a series of incorrect actions that resulted in the permanent loss of the reactor and shutdown of Unit 2. This study also aims at enhancing the understanding of the THERP and ATHEANA methods and at practical applications. In addition, it is possible to understand the influence of plant operational status on human failures and the influence of human failures on equipment of a system, in this case, a nuclear power plant. (author)

ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Crespo Martínez

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

Risk management methodology for RBMN project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

2013-01-01

RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

2014-11-01

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

Incorporation of advanced accident analysis methodology into safety analysis reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-05-01

as structural analysis codes and computational fluid dynamics codes (CFD) are applied. The initial code development took place in the sixties and seventies and resulted in a set of quite conservative codes for the reactor dynamics, thermal-hydraulics and containment analysis. The most important limitations of these codes came from insufficient knowledge of the physical phenomena and of the limited computer memory and speed. Very significant advances have been made in the development of the code systems during the last twenty years in all of the above areas. If the data for the physical models of the code are sufficiently well established and allow quite a realistic analysis, these newer versions are called advanced codes. The assumptions used in the deterministic safety analysis vary from very pessimistic to realistic assumptions. In the accident analysis terminology, it is customary to call the pessimistic assumptions 'conservative' and the realistic assumptions 'best estimate'. The assumptions can refer to the selection of physical models, the introduction of these models into the code, and the initial and boundary conditions including the performance and failures of the equipment and human action. The advanced methodology in the present report means application of advanced codes (or best estimate codes), which sometimes represent a combination of various advanced codes for separate stages of the analysis, and in some cases in combination with experiments. The Safety Analysis Reports are required to be available before and during the operation of the plant in most countries. The contents, scope and stages of the SAR vary among the countries. The guide applied in the USA, i.e. the Regulatory Guide 1.70 is representative for the way in which the SARs are made in many countries. During the design phase, a preliminary safety analysis report (PSAR) is requested in many countries and the final safety analysis report (FSAR) is required for the operating licence. There is

Status report on the EPRI fuel cycle accident risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdmann, R.C.; Fullwood, R.R.; Garcia, A.A.; Mendoza, Z.T.; Ritzman, R.L.; Stevens, C.A.

1979-07-01

This report summarizes and extends the work reported in five unpublished draft reports: the accidental radiological risk of reprocessing spent fuel, mixed oxide fuel fabrication, the transportation of materials within the fuel cycle, and the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the routine atmospheric radiological risk of mining and milling uranium-bearing ore. Results show that the total risk contribution of the fuel cycle is only about 1% of the accident risk of the power plant and hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is that of the power plant itself. The power plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005, is only about 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihoods and estimated errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault tree analysis with the release source terms calculated using physical--chemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with the CRAC code. No evacuation or mitigation is considered: source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/T) and short cooling (90 to 150 d); HEPA filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H.; Nijhawan, Sunil

2015-01-01

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Nijhawan, Sunil [Prolet Inc. 98 Burbank Drive, Toronto (Canada)

2015-05-15

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elvik, Rune

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the road......This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...

Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

OpenAIRE

Mehran Amiri; Abdollah Ardeshir; Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

2015-01-01

Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were d...

The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

Estimate of the economy-wide financial risk associated with a serious nuclear reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

1985-01-01

Since the accident at Three Mile Island, considerable attention has focused on the financial risks associated with nuclear reactor accidents. Previous studies have calculated the plant-specific financial risk due to primarily off-site consequences, including most probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) beginning first with the Reactor Safety Study. Previous studies, however, have not studied the possible economy-wide costs of a severe reactor accident due to such considerations as adverse public opinion, enhanced concern in the financial community, and, particularly, regulatory constraints placed on the industry subsequent to an accident. These considerations could lead to a spectrum of scenarios, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria, which may have far reaching economy-wide effects. It is the purpose of this study to provide an estimate of these effects, and to compare these estimates with the plant-specific financial risks calculated earlier by others. First, a model is presented for including the impact of various regulatory response options on the nuclear industry, followed by a discussion of how the economy-wide costs associated with these options may be calculated. Then, results of series of calculations are presented, and finally, conclusions are given

Advantages of Westinghouse BWR control rod drop accidents methodology utilizing integrated POLCA-T code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panayotov, Dobromir

2008-01-01

The paper focuses on the activities pursued by Westinghouse in the development and licensing of POLCA-T code Control Rod Drop Accident (CRDA) Methodology. The comprehensive CRDA methodology that utilizes PHOENIX4/POLCA7/POLCA-T calculation chain foresees complete cycle-specific analysis. The methodology consists of determination of candidates of control rods (CR) that could cause a significant reactivity excursion if dropped throughout the entire fuel cycle, selection of limiting initial conditions for CRDA transient simulation and transient simulation itself. The Westinghouse methodology utilizes state-of-the-art methods. Unnecessary conservatisms in the methodology have been avoided to allow the accurate prediction of margin to design bases. This is mainly achieved by using the POLCA-T code for dynamic CRDA evaluations. The code belongs to the same calculation chain that is used for core design. Thus the very same reactor, core, cycle and fuel data base is used. This allows also reducing the uncertainties of input data and parameters that determine the energy deposition in the fuel. Uncertainty treatment, very selective use of conservatisms, selection of the initial conditions for limiting case analyses, incorporation into POLCA-T code models of the licensed fuel performance code are also among the means of performing realistic CRDA transient analyses. (author)

Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

1992-01-01

We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-12-01

The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

Science.gov (United States)

Perko, Tanja

2016-10-01

Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamadfam

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

[Labor accidents involving the eyes: assessment of occupational risks involving nursing workers].

Science.gov (United States)

de Almeida, Cristiana Brasil; Pagliuca, Lorita Marlena Freitag; Leite, Ana Lourdes Almeida e Silva

2005-01-01

The study aimed at identifying nursing workers who were victims of eye accidents and the type of accident; describing the measures taken and proposing Health Education methods. A descriptive and exploratory study was carried out at a public maternity hospital from September 2002 to January 2003. Data were collected through direct observation of the environment and interviews with workers. Subjects were ten professionals (one nurse, two technicians and seven nursing auxiliaries) who were victims of work accidents involving the eye. The accidents were grouped according to the type of material that caused the trauma: chemical substances (4), medication (3), mechanical trauma (1), scalp (1) and urine (1). The results reveal that hospital workers are vulnerable to labor accidents because the environment presents biological, chemical and physical risks. An important step to prevent the occurrence of new accidents would be the prevention of human mistakes through permanent training and the use of protection glasses.

Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, S

2016-04-01

Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theofanous, T.G.

1994-01-01

The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

MRI-related magnetic field exposures and risk of commuting accidents - A cross-sectional survey among Dutch imaging technicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Huss, Anke; Schaap, Kristel; Kromhout, Hans

2017-07-01

Imaging technicians working with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may experience acute effects such as vertigo or dizziness when being exposed. A previous study also reported an increased risk of accidents in MRI exposed staff. We aimed at evaluating commuting accident risk in Dutch imaging technicians. Of invited imaging technicians, 490 (29%) filled in a questionnaire pertaining to (near) accidents when driving or riding a bike, health, lifestyle and work practices. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between exposure to MRI-related electromagnetic fields and risk of commuting (near) accidents in the year prior to the survey, adjusted for a range of potential confounders. Our cross-sectional study indicated an increased risk of (near) accidents if imaging technicians had worked with MRI in the year prior to the survey (odds ratio OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.23-3.69). Risks were higher in persons who worked with MRI more often (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.25-4.31) compared to persons who worked sometimes with MRI (OR 1.91, 95%CI 0.98-3.72), and higher in those who had likely experienced higher peak exposures to static and time-varying magnetic fields (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.06-4.48). The effect was seen on commuting accidents that had occurred on the commute from home to work as well as accidents from work to home or elsewhere. Imaging technicians working with MRI scanners may be at an increased risk of commuting (near) accidents. This result needs confirmation and potential risks for other groups (volunteers, patients) should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Memories of atomic fear: the construction of imaginary scientific risk from the speeches on large radiation accidents by media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira, Maria da Conceição da Rocha

2018-01-01

The thesis reveals some aspects that concern the fear presented by a great part of society to the use of atomic energy. There are many studies pointing to the memories that refer to the terror of radioactive contamination or the destruction caused by atomic weapons, or even a controversial environmental view of the energy efficiency against climate warming. The object herein is the communication of scientific and technological risk, revealing the importance of journalism on the information given to a non specialized population. The premises concerning accidents caused by nuclear or radiological causes are that they have something beyond any other accident of technological causes when they are object of communication by mass media. The image of the bomb destruction can be a constant of terror on the apprehension of the risk in those accidents. French Discourse analysis is the theory support approached to search about the construction of the fear evolving the atomic energy, by analyzing some of the articles of mass communication media. The time selection, as a first cut, were the decades of 1980/1990, which were celebrated by the events of Chernobyl, worldwide, and the Cesium-137, in Goiania, Brazil. The same accidents are given a second cut on the celebration of their anniversaries, in cycles of up to 30 years, in a way of upgrading the production conditions of the discourses around them and their effects on the learning of society. The analysis was articulated between texts and images as discursive materials that have their own significations on the final effect of senses, which is, according to the methodology adopted, strongly affected by ideology. (author)

The risk of accident in nuclear power plants - Quotes and questions. National debate on energy transition. Taking the risk of nuclear accident into account. Note to the 'scenarios' subgroup of the group of experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laponche, Bernard

2013-01-01

After an overview of the production of electricity from nuclear energy and of its risks, the author discusses the issue of nuclear safety by distinguishing the different points of view, by describing the different levels between a severe and a major accident, and by recalling the statements made by the ASN and the IRSN on this issue. He describes the various reasons and consequences of accidents: types of accidents which could result in a core fusion, the containment failure as the major accident. He discusses the questions and comments about major issues like: strength of reactor vessels, hydrogen explosion, water vapour explosion, corium crossing the concrete sill plate, corium recovery, MOX as an aggravating situation for safety. In the last part, the author discusses the global assessment of a risk of a nuclear accident: probabilities and occurrences, significant accidents on PWRs, premonitory analysis, demonstration of nuclear safety

An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

2013-07-01

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

OVERVIEW OF MODULAR HTGR SAFETY CHARACTERIZATION AND POSTULATED ACCIDENT BEHAVIOR LICENSING STRATEGY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ball, Sydney J [ORNL

2014-06-01

This report provides an update on modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) accident analyses and risk assessments. One objective of this report is to improve the characterization of the safety case to better meet current regulatory practice, which is commonly geared to address features of today s light water reactors (LWRs). The approach makes use of surrogates for accident prevention and mitigation to make comparisons with LWRs. The safety related design features of modular HTGRs are described, along with the means for rigorously characterizing accident selection and progression methodologies. Approaches commonly used in the United States and elsewhere are described, along with detailed descriptions and comments on design basis (and beyond) postulated accident sequences.

Assessment of radiation risks as a result of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, V.K.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the Government of the former USSR had made decision on establishing common registry of exposed persons in several months after the Chernobyl accident. The registry had served in Medical Radiological Research Centre of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Obninsk City till 1992 (the time of dissolution of the USSR). Individual medical and dosimetric information on 659292 persons, including 284907 emergency accident workers (liquidators) had been collected for the period between 1986 and 1991. As of 01.01.1998, National Chernobyl Registry of the Russian Federation has kept individual data on 508236 persons including 167726 liquidators. As it is known, long-term epidemiological study of Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors resulted in statistically significant assessments of radiation risks for induction of cancer at the dose level above 0.5 Gy. Radiation doses after the Chernobyl accident do not exceed 0.3-0.5 Gy. That is why assessment of radiation risks at low radiation doses is a problem of great importance. As a result of the epidemiological studies performed on the basis of the Russian Chernobyl registry we pioneered the assessment of statistically significant radiation risks for induction of cancer at low radiation dose. (author)

Accident sequence analysis for a BWR [Boiling Water Reactor] during low power and shutdown operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitehead, D.W.; Hake, T.M.

1990-01-01

Most previous Probabilistic Risk Assessments have excluded consideration of accidents initiated in low power and shutdown modes of operation. A study of the risk associated with operation in low power and shutdown is being performed at Sandia National Laboratories for a US Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). This paper describes the proposed methodology for the analysis of the risk associated with the operation of a BWR during low power and shutdown modes and presents preliminary information resulting from the application of the methodology. 2 refs., 2 tabs

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letícia Silveira Cardoso

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%, physical (88.2%, physiological (64.3% and biological (62.4%. In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05. It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

The potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gohardehi, Shaban; Sharif, Mehdi; Sarvi, Shahabeddin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Hosseini, Seyed Abdollah; Amouei, Afsaneh; Pagheh, Abdolsattar; Sadeghi, Mitra; Daryani, Ahmad

2018-06-12

Toxoplasmosis is a prevalent infectious disease. Although most people infected by Toxoplasma gondii are asymptomatic, evidence has suggested that this disease might affect some aspects of a host's behavior and associate with schizophrenia, suicide attempt, changes in various aspects of personality, and poor neurocognitive performance. These associations may play roles in increasing the risk of a number of incidents, such as traffic accidents, among infected people. In this regard, this study aimed to provide summary estimates for the available data on the potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents. To this end, using a number of search terms, i.e. toxoplasmosis, Toxoplasma gondii, traffic accident, road accident, car accident, crash, and prevalence, literature searches (up to October 1, 2017) were carried out via 6 databases. The meta-analysis was conducted using the StatsDirect statistical software and a P-value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant in all statistical analyses. Out of 1841 identified studies, 9 studies were finally considered eligible for carrying out this systematic review. Reviewing results of these studies indicated that 5 out of 9 studies reported a significant relationship between Toxoplasma gondii and traffic accidents. Additionally, data related to gender showed significant differences between infected and control men and women. Considering age, reviewing the results of these studies revealed a significant difference between the infected people and the Toxoplasma-negative subjects under 45 years of age. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups aged 45 or older. Given these results, it can be concluded that Toxoplasma gondii significantly increases the risk of having traffic accidents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

2005-01-01

The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

2002-01-01

No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

Regulatory analyses for severe accident issues: an example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Strip, D.R.; Aldrich, D.C.

1984-09-01

This report presents the results of an effort to develop a regulatory analysis methodology and presentation format to provide information for regulatory decision-making related to severe accident issues. Insights and conclusions gained from an example analysis are presented. The example analysis draws upon information generated in several previous and current NRC research programs (the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP), Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP), Value-Impact Handbook, Economic Risk Analyses, and studies of Vented Containment Systems and Alternative Decay Heat Removal Systems) to perform preliminary value-impact analyses on the installation of either a vented containment system or an alternative decay heat removal system at the Peach Bottom No. 2 plant. The results presented in this report are first-cut estimates, and are presented only for illustrative purposes in the context of this document. This study should serve to focus discussion on issues relating to the type of information, the appropriate level of detail, and the presentation format which would make a regulatory analysis most useful in the decisionmaking process

Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

2016-04-01

Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

2016-04-01

Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.

2013-01-01

the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link......In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...

Cost analysis and financial risk profile for severe reactor accidents at Waterford-3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cutbush, J.D.; Abbott, E.C.; Carpenter, W.L. Jr.

1992-01-01

To support Louisiana Power and Light Company (LP and L) in determining an appropriate level of nuclear property insurance for Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit 3 (Waterford-3), ABZ, Incorporated, performed a series of cost analyses and developed a financial risk profile. This five-month study, conducted in 1991, identified the potential Waterford-3 severe reactor accidents and described each from a cleanup perspective, estimated the cost and schedule to cleanup from each accident, developed a probability distribution of associated financial exposure, and developed a profile of financial risk as a function of insurance coverage

Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Elvik, Rune

2015-03-01

This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Method of assessing severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

1991-01-01

Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been completed that yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities can be categorized as (1) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency. (2) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures. (3) dominant threats that challenge safety functions. (4) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainties in key phenomena, operator behavior, system availability and behavior, and available information. This paper presents a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties delineated at two workshops held at the University of California, Los Angeles. Based on decision trees and influence diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a boiling water reactor to prevent vessel and/or containment failure

Risk perception and occupational accidents: a study of gas station workers in southern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Silva, Mara Regina Santos da; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

2012-07-01

The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%), physical (88.2%), physiological (64.3%) and biological (62.4%). In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

Accident sequences and causes analysis in a hydrogen production process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jae, Moo Sung; Hwang, Seok Won; Kang, Kyong Min; Ryu, Jung Hyun; Kim, Min Soo; Cho, Nam Chul; Jeon, Ho Jun; Jung, Gun Hyo; Han, Kyu Min; Lee, Seng Woo [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2006-03-15

Since hydrogen production facility using IS process requires high temperature of nuclear power plant, safety assessment should be performed to guarantee the safety of facility. First of all, accident cases of hydrogen production and utilization has been surveyed. Based on the results, risk factors which can be derived from hydrogen production facility were identified. Besides the correlation between risk factors are schematized using influence diagram. Also initiating events of hydrogen production facility were identified and accident scenario development and quantification were performed. PSA methodology was used for identification of initiating event and master logic diagram was used for selection method of initiating event. Event tree analysis was used for quantification of accident scenario. The sum of all the leakage frequencies is 1.22x10{sup -4} which is similar value (1.0x10{sup -4}) for core damage frequency that International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group of IAEA suggested as a criteria.

Study to improve recriticality evaluation methodology after severe accident (Joint research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugo, Teruhiko; Ishikawa, Makoto; Nagaya, Yasunobu; Yokoyama, Kenji; Fukaya, Yuji; Maruyama, Hiromi; Kondo, Takao; Minato, Hirokazu; Tsuchiya, Akiyuki; Ishii, Yoshihiko; Fujimura, Koji

2014-03-01

The present report summarizes the results of a 2-year cooperative study between JAEA and Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy in order to contribute to the settlement of the Fukushima-Daiich nuclear power plants which suffered from the severe accident on March 2011. In the Fukushima-Daiich plants, it is considered that the nuclear fuel in the core was melted down by the loss of ultimate heat sink by the station black out after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. The position and/or the mass of the melted fuel have not been known yet. Therefore, the possibility of recriticality events and the severity of the postulated recriticality are uncertain. In the present study, the possible scenarios to reach the recriticality events in Fukushima-Daiich were investigated first. Then, the analytical methodology to evaluate the time-dependent recriticality events has been developed by modelling the reactivity insertion rate and the possible feedback according to the recriticality scenarios identified in the first step. The methodology developed here has been equipped as a transient simulation tool, PORCAS, which is operated on a multi-purpose platform for reactor analysis, MARBLE. Finally, the radiation exposure rates by the postulated recriticality events in Fukushima-Daiich were approximately evaluated to estimate the impact to the public environment. (author)

Development of Assessment Methodology of Chemical Behavior of Volatile Iodide under Severe Accident Conditions Using EPICUR Experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Jae Yong; Yun, Jong Il; Kim, Do Sam; Han Chul

2011-01-01

Iodine is one of the most important fission products produced in nuclear power plants. Under severe accident condition, iodine exists as a variety of species in the containment such as aqueous iodide, gaseous iodide, iodide aerosol, etc. Following release of iodine from the reactor, mostly in the form of CsI aerosol, volatile iodine can be generated from the containment sump and release to the environment. Especially, volatile organic iodide can be produced from interaction between nonvolatile iodine and organic substances present in the containment. Volatile iodide could significantly influence the alienated residents surrounding the nuclear power plant. In particular, thyroid is vulnerable to radioiodine due to its high accumulation. Therefore, it is necessary for the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) to develop an evaluation model which can simulate iodine behavior in the containment following a severe accident. KINS also needs to make up its methodology for radiological consequence analysis, based on MELCOR-MACCS2 calculation, by coupling a simple iodine model which can conveniently deal with organic iodides. In the long term, such a model can contribute to develop an accident source term, which is one of urgent domestic needs. Our strategy for developing the model is as follows: 1. Review the existing methodologies, 2. Develop a simple stand-alone model, 3. Validate the model using ISTP-EPICUR (Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation) and OECD-BIP (Behavior of Iodine Project) experimental data. In this paper we present the context of development and validation of our model named RAIM (Radio-active iodine chemistry model)

Methodology for the Assessment of Confidence in Safety Margin for Small Break Loss of Coolant Accident Sequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagrale, D. B.; Prasad, M.; Rao, R. S.; Gaikwad, A.J., E-mail: avinashg@aerb.gov.in [Nuclear Safety Analysis Division, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Mumbai (India)

2014-10-15

Deterministic Safety Analysis and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) analyses are used concurrently to assess the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) safety. The conventional deterministic analysis is conservative. The best estimate plus uncertainty analysis is increasingly being used for deterministic calculation in NPPs. The PSA methodology aims to be as realistic as possible while integrating information about accident phenomena, plant design, operating practices, component reliability and human behaviour. The peak clad temperature (PCT) distribution provides an insight into the confidence in safety margin for an initiating event. The paper deals with the concept of calculating the peak clad temperature with 95 percent confidence and 95 percent probability (PCT{sub 95/95}) in small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) and methodologies for assessing safety margin. Five input parameters mainly, nominal power level, decay power, fuel clad gap conductivity, fuel thermal conductivity and discharge coefficient, were selected. A Uniform probability density function was assigned to the uncertain parameters and these uncertainties are propagated using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. The sampled data for 5 parameters were randomly mixed by LHS to obtain 25 input sets. A non-core damage accident sequence was selected from the SBLOCA event tree of a typical VVER study to estimate the PCTs and safety margin. A Kolmogorov– Smirnov goodness-of-fit test was carried out for PCTs. The smallest value of safety margin would indicate the robustness of the system with 95% confidence and 95% probability. Regression analysis was also carried out using 1000 sample size for the estimating PCTs. Mean, variance and finally safety margin were analysed. (author)

Development of Assessment Methodology of Chemical Behavior of Volatile Iodide under Severe Accident Conditions Using EPICUR Experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Jae Yong; Yun, Jong Il [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Do Sam; Han Chul [Korea Institue of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2011-05-15

Iodine is one of the most important fission products produced in nuclear power plants. Under severe accident condition, iodine exists as a variety of species in the containment such as aqueous iodide, gaseous iodide, iodide aerosol, etc. Following release of iodine from the reactor, mostly in the form of CsI aerosol, volatile iodine can be generated from the containment sump and release to the environment. Especially, volatile organic iodide can be produced from interaction between nonvolatile iodine and organic substances present in the containment. Volatile iodide could significantly influence the alienated residents surrounding the nuclear power plant. In particular, thyroid is vulnerable to radioiodine due to its high accumulation. Therefore, it is necessary for the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) to develop an evaluation model which can simulate iodine behavior in the containment following a severe accident. KINS also needs to make up its methodology for radiological consequence analysis, based on MELCOR-MACCS2 calculation, by coupling a simple iodine model which can conveniently deal with organic iodides. In the long term, such a model can contribute to develop an accident source term, which is one of urgent domestic needs. Our strategy for developing the model is as follows: 1. Review the existing methodologies, 2. Develop a simple stand-alone model, 3. Validate the model using ISTP-EPICUR (Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation) and OECD-BIP (Behavior of Iodine Project) experimental data. In this paper we present the context of development and validation of our model named RAIM (Radio-active iodine chemistry model)

Statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Marchaterre, J.F.

1980-01-01

In a recently published paper (Campbell and Ott, 1979), a general methodology was proposed for the statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents. The evaluation aims at an estimate of the combined residual frequency of yet unknown types of accidents lurking in a certain technological system. Here, the original methodology is extended, as to apply to a variety of systems that evolves during the development of large-scale technologies. A special categorization of incidents and accidents is introduced to define the events that should be jointly analyzed. The resulting formalism is applied to the development of the nuclear power reactor technology, considering serious accidents that involve in the accident-progression a particular design inadequacy

The development of a nuclear accident risk information system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, J. T.; Jeong, W. D.

2001-01-01

The computerized system NARIS (Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analyses of the distribution of the health effects. The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

Media coverage of Fukushima accident in the Russian press. Lessons for radiation emergency risk communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melikhova, E.; Arutyunyan, R.

2014-01-01

The paper reviews recent results of content analysis of the Russian press and data of all-Russia public opinion polls on the subject of the Fukushima accident and discusses them in the wider context of challenges in communication of 'no risk' messages to the public in the case of a nuclear accident. Radiation risk regulation base in the low dose range is proposed to be one of the main obstacles for the communication and a new approach to emergency risk communication is proposed. (author)

A source term and risk calculations using level 2+PSA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S. I.; Jea, M. S.; Jeon, K. D.

2002-01-01

The scope of Level 2+ PSA includes the assessment of dose risk which is associated with the exposures of the radioactive nuclides escaping from nuclear power plants during severe accidents. The establishment of data base for the exposure dose in Korea nuclear power plants may contribute to preparing the accident management programs and periodic safety reviews. In this study the ORIGEN, MELCOR and MACCS code were employed to produce a integrated framework to assess the radiation source term risk. The framework was applied to a reference plant. Using IPE results, the dose rate for the reference plant was calculated quantitatively

Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldman, M.; Nelson, R.C.; Bollinger, L.; Hoover, M.D.; Templeton, W.; Anspaugh, L.

1991-01-01

Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher