WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident risk forecasting

  1. Accident risk. Chapter 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    Following a historical introduction in which WASH-740, WASH-1400, Swedish, Finnish, Scandinavian, Netherlands and West German analyses are briefly presented, the concept of risk itself is discussed, distinguishing between objective and subjective aspects, and between voluntary and involuntary risk. Risk analysis is briefly described and an attempt made to define acceptable risk. In treating the safety philosophy of nuclear power plants the engineered safety precautions are presented. The numerical results of the analysis made for Norwegian conditions are presented and discussed. Underground siting, which has been much discussed in Norway is also treated, and emergency planning briefly discussed. The probability and consequences of core meltdown in a light water reactor are then discussed, and the possible faults leading to this, both internal, human errors and external impacts are analysed. The failure mechanisms in the containment building which could lead to the release of activity are discussed, followed by the dispersion of the activity and the health and economic consequences. The accidents at Wuergassen and Brown's Ferry are briefly described as examples. A brief discussion of nuclear insurance and nuclear law in Norway form the concluding sections. (JIW)

  2. Management of accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compes, P.C.

    1987-01-01

    The example of the Chernobyl accident and the statistics of the occurrence of accidents make clear the threat to humanity, if one cannot guarantee successful accident prevention in the use and distribution of the projects aimed at. The science of safety, as it is known in the Wuppertal model, makes its contribution to this vital task for the human community. It makes it necessary to create the essential dates and concepts, the methods, principles and techniques based on them and the associated instrumentation. (DG) [de

  3. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  4. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  5. DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FORECASTING AT VARIOUS TYPICAL URBAN AREAS

    OpenAIRE

    D. V. Kapsky

    2012-01-01

    The paper provides investigation results pertaining to development of methodology for forecasting traffic accidents using a “conflict zone” method that considers potential danger for two typical urban areas, namely: signaled crossings and bumps that are made in the areas of zebra crossings and it also considers various types and kinds of conflicts. The investigations have made it possible to obtain various indices of threshold sensitivity in respect of  potential risks  and in relation to tra...

  6. Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

  7. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  8. Improving aircraft accident forecasting for an integrated plutonium storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rock, J.C.; Kiffe, J.; McNerney, M.T.; Turen, T.A.

    1998-06-01

    Aircraft accidents pose a quantifiable threat to facilities used to store and process surplus weapon-grade plutonium. The Department of Energy (DOE) recently published its first aircraft accident analysis guidelines: Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities. This document establishes a hierarchy of procedures for estimating the small annual frequency for aircraft accidents that impact Pantex facilities and the even smaller frequency of hazardous material released to the environment. The standard establishes a screening threshold of 10 -6 impacts per year; if the initial estimate of impact frequency for a facility is below this level, no further analysis is required. The Pantex Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) calculates the aircraft impact frequency to be above this screening level. The DOE Standard encourages more detailed analyses in such cases. This report presents three refinements, namely, removing retired small military aircraft from the accident rate database, correcting the conversion factor from military accident rates (accidents per 100,000 hours) to the rates used in the DOE model (accidents per flight phase), and adjusting the conditional probability of impact for general aviation to more accurately reflect pilot training and local conditions. This report documents a halving of the predicted frequency of an aircraft impact at Pantex and points toward further reductions

  9. Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmen Carnero, Maria; Jose Pedregal, Diego

    2010-01-01

    The control of accidents at the work place is a critical issue all over the world. The consequences of occupational accidents in terms of costs for the company in which the accidents take place is only one minor matter, being the social impact and the loss of human life the most controversial effects of this important problem. The methods used to forecast future evolution of accidents are often limited to trend estimations and projections, being the scientific literature on this topic rather scarce. This paper aims at showing and predicting the evolution of Spanish occupational accidents of different levels of severity, allowing the evaluation of the influence that preventive actions carried out by public administrations or private companies may have over the number of occupational accidents. Though some contributions may be found on this topic for Spain, this paper is the first contribution that forecast occupational accidents for different levels of severity using Multivariate Unobserved Components models developed in a State Space framework extended to deal with the irregular sampling interval of the data. Data from 1998 to 2009 have been used to test the efficacy of the forecasting system.

  10. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-08-15

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

  11. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Thaler, Marko; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor; Poredos, Alojz

    2007-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  12. Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrenko Elena A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project.

  13. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  14. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  15. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    , but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties...... areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions...

  16. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  17. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  18. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J

    2009-06-01

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident

  19. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J [eds.; Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden); Agrenius, Lennart [ed.; Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-06-15

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

  20. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  1. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  2. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions......, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties......What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different...

  3. On forecasting of rivers contamination as a result of Chernobyl NPP accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novitskij, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    Contamination of rivers on the territory effected by the Chernobyl accident is under consideration. On the base of analysis field and laboratory experiments data understanding about formation of long-lived radionuclides concentration in rain and snow melt runoff was elaborated. The correctness of mathematical model used for forecasting radiation situation on rivers was confirmed by the data of rivers contamination levels in spring 1987 [ru

  4. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  5. Severe accidents at nuclear power plants. Their risk assessment and accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Kiyoharu.

    1995-05-01

    This document is to explain the severe accident issues. Severe Accidents are defined as accidents which are far beyond the design basis and result in severe damage of the core. Accidents at Three Mild Island in USA and at Chernobyl in former Soviet Union are examples of severe accidents. The causes and progressions of the accidents as well as the actions taken are described. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a method to estimate the risk of severe accidents at nuclear reactors. The methodology for PSA is briefly described and current status on its application to safety related issues is introduced. The acceptability of the risks which inherently accompany every technology is then discussed. Finally, provision of accident management in Japan is introduced, including the description of accident management measures proposed for BWRs and PWRs. (author)

  6. [Risk assessment expanded accident insurance for children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittaro, N A

    1998-08-01

    Disability is a well known and tragic event for children. While adults are an established group for specific disability insurance cover, children were often neglected in the past. Although parents, organizations and paediatricans are aware of the risk, children specific incidence rates for disability are hardly available. The only sufficient source for some statistical data are the accident statistics because they represent a substantial group of specific cause related disability for children. Incidence rates for disease related chronic severe impairment or disability in children are either derived by single disease research or actuarial calculation of the German Social Disability Registration. Based on this statistical background, an extended accident insurance for children was introduced in Germany covering both accidents and disabling diseases. The key limitation for all variations of this insurance are exclusion clauses for congential diseases and mental disorders. This insurance requires a new approach in underwriting of the health risks. Because of the substantial number of impaired children, a simple decline of substandard cases are unacceptable. The early experience or medical underwriting shows predominantly health impairments of the following types: allergies, bronchial asthma, ectopic eczema (neurodermitis), disorders of speech and articulation, vision disorders and mental impairments. The suggested solution for underwriting of substandard risks is the predetermination of the possible future maximum degree of disability. The need for underwriting guidelines is supported by the market impact of the new disability cover with thousands of insurance policies issued in the first month after introduction.

  7. The real risk in pension forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

    2018-01-01

    This paper sheds light on some of the flaws in the forecasting approach undertaken by the pension industry. Specifically, it considers the treatment of inflation and shows that the current modeling framework is too simplistic. I identify the flaws of the existing regulatory framework and provide ...... scheme gives rise to a more heavy-tailed distribution implying a misestimation of downside risk and upside potential. Finally, it is shown in a realistic case study that the pension saver’s expected retirement payout profile is heavily affected....... of the pension saver’s investment portfolio at retirement is highly dependent on the inflation scheme. As the deterministic scheme does not take state variable correlations into account it overestimates the expected portfolio value in real terms compared to the stochastic scheme. Moreover, the deterministic...

  8. Risk impact of two accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    This report probabilistic Risk Assessment is used to evaluate two accident management strategies: intentionally depressurizing the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor to prevent containment-pressurization during high pressure melt ejection, and flooding the containment of a boiling water reactor to prevent or delay vessel breach. Sensitivity studies indicated that intentional depressurization would not provide a significant risk reduction at Surry. A preliminary evaluation of the containment flooding strategy indicated that it might prove beneficial for some plants, but that further strategy development would be needed to fully evaluate the strategy-

  9. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  11. Self-similar risk characteristics of industrial accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puzanov, Y.V.

    1994-01-01

    At the present time there is no logically consistent theory of risk of industrial accidents, just as for the risk of other catastrophic phenomena (natural disasters, ecological castastrophes). Moreover, there is no unique interpretation of the term risk itself in application to catastrophic phenomena, and different authors employ the concept of risk arbitrarily, often proceeding from intuitively obvious ideas. The risk of an accident is most often identified with the probability of the accident itself (with a flux of accident events), the probability of loss of life or damage due to catastrophic phenomena. However, every such concept has its own independent meaning, and identifying these concepts with risk is fraught with confusion

  12. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  13. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values-at...

  14. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); T.D. Markwat (Thijs); A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or

  15. Economic risks of nuclear power reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.

    1984-04-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which occur during US LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models have been developed for potential use by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost/benefit analyses for decision-making purposes. The new onsite cost models estimate societal losses from power production cost increases, plant capital losses, plant decontamination costs, and plant repair costs which may be incurred after LWR operational events. Early decommissioning costs, plant worker health impact costs, electric utility business costs, nuclear power industry costs, and litigation costs are also addressed. The newly developed offsite economic consequence models estimate The costs of post-accident population protective measures and public health impacts. The costs of population evacuation and temporary relocation, agricultural product disposal, land and property decontamination, and land interdiction are included in the economic models for population protective measures. Costs of health impacts and medical care costs are also included in the models

  16. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  17. ACCIDENT PHENOMENA OF RISK IMPORTANCE PROJECT - Continued RESEARCH CONCERNING SEVERE ACCIDENT PHENOMENA AND MANAGEMENT IN Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolandson, S.; Mueller, F.; Loevenhielm, G.

    1997-01-01

    Since 1988 all reactors in Sweden have mitigating measures, such as filtered vents, implemented. In parallel with the work of implementing these measures, a cooperation effort (RAMA projects) between the Swedish utilities and the Nuclear Power Inspectorate was performed to acquire sufficient knowledge about severe accident research work. The on-going project has the name Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3. In this paper, we will give background information about severe accident management in Sweden. In the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project we will focus on the work concerning coolability of melted core in lower plenum which is the main focus of the In-vessel Coolability Task Group within the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project. The Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project has joined on international consortium and the in-vessel cooling experiments are performed by Fauske and Associates, Inc. in Burr Ridge, Illinois, United States America, Sweden also intends to do one separate experiment with one instrument penetration we have in Swedish/Finnish BWR's. Other parts of the Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance 3 project, such as support to level 2 studies, the research at Royal Institute of Technology and participation in international programs, such as Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, Advanced Containment Experiments and PHEBUS will be briefly described in the paper

  18. TEPCO's costs and risks which invited the nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soeda, Takashi

    2017-01-01

    The National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (Diet Accident Investigation Commission) considered two patterns against the tsunami risk of nuclear plant: (1) Risk management for the purpose of safety (Pattern A), and (2) Risk management for the purpose of utilization rate and cost of nuclear reactor (Pattern B). Pattern B emphasizes avoiding 'countermeasure cost generation' and 'operation shutdown' rather than preparing for a tsunami that we do not know when to come. Diet Accident Investigation Commission analyzed that the behavioral principles concerning the crisis response of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) had the stronger tendency of Pattern B. Regarding the accident of TEPCO, there were class actions that asked the responsibility of TEPCO and the government. This paper examined the contents of the opinions of government-side experts submitted for this issue. The government-side experts argued that there was no 'scientific consensus' for tsunami forecast, and that preliminary measures against unexpected tsunami was impossible. However, both of these government's arguments are irrational due to difference from the fact. TEPCO president at the time of accident insisted in the firm that 'cost cut in another dimension' was indispensable and reduced expenses. TEPCO and the government had continued Pattern B, even knowing that tsunami risk measures were insufficient from more than ten years ago. (A.O.)

  19. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High-Frequency Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyu Huang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available in the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500 returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled at different intraday interval, or directly, through combining high frequency information into one model. We consider subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging methods for the indirect case, and factor models with principal component approach, for both direct and indirect cases. We show that in forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it, using high-frequency information is beneficial, often substantially and particularly so, in forecasting downside risk. Our empirical results show that the averaging methods (subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging, which serve as different ways of forming the ensemble average from using high-frequency intraday information, provide an excellent forecasting performance compared to using just low-frequency daily information.

  20. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yan-qun; Zeng, Xiao-hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  1. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  2. Radiation risks and the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindell, B

    1986-01-01

    A review is given of the basic of radiation protection, including nomenclature and units and principles for protection at accidents. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union and in Sweden is described, and the recommendations and protection measures applied in Sweden are presented. In particular, the radiation levels and restrictions concerning food are discussed. (L.E.).

  3. Energy Forecasts and their Attendant Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greggio, Rodolphe; Maffei, Benoit

    2017-01-01

    As Jean-Marie Chevalier stresses in this issue, it is currently quite tricky to pronounce on how energy prices will move over time or to predict how energy production systems will change. Further support for that view comes from this article by Rodolphe Greggio and Benoit Maffei. They have looked into the way long-term energy forecasts are made and their conclusion is that, as things stand, they are doomed to fail. The main underlying reason for this is the difficulty of making reliable predictions about how energy demand will evolve, since it is the product of exogenous developments that are unknowable in the long term (demographic growth, economic growth, productivity, energy efficiency etc.). A number of forecasting errors with regard to technological breaks have also played a role: a 'golden age' for natural gas was forecast too early; the date of 'peak oil' has shifted around wildly; a peak with regard to ore deposits has not had the impact originally anticipated; and the decline of nuclear power has turned out to require qualification. Ultimately, all this is the product of various political and geopolitical factors linked to the respective energy assets of the different countries and their strategies for achieving energy independence: e.g. the USA and shale gas, France and nuclear power, Germany and renewables. Quite clearly, the current context suggests that a gradual transition from carbon-based to renewable energies is the order of the day, but it is far from easy to predict on precisely what timescale, in what proportions and on what geographical scale this might occur. (authors)

  4. Microbial aerosol generation during laboratory accidents and subsequent risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A; Parks, S

    2006-04-01

    To quantify microbial aerosols generated by a series of laboratory accidents and to use these data in risk assessment. A series of laboratory accident scenarios have been devised and the microbial aerosol generated by them has been measured using a range of microbial air samplers. The accident scenarios generating the highest aerosol concentrations were, dropping a fungal plate, dropping a large bottle, centrifuge rotor leaks and a blocked syringe filter. Many of these accidents generated low particle size aerosols, which would be inhaled into the lungs of any exposed laboratory staff. Spray factors (SFs) have been calculated using the results of these experiments as an indicator of the potential for accidents to generate microbial aerosols. Model risk assessments have been described using the SF data. Quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents can provide data that can aid the design of containment laboratories and the response to laboratory accidents. A methodology has been described and supporting data provided to allow microbiological safety officers to carry out quantitative risk assessment of laboratory accidents.

  5. APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Final Report; APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hammar, L.; Soederman, E. [ES-konsult, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    The APRI-project started in 1992 with participation of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish utilities. The Finnish utility TVO joined the project in 1993. The aim of the project has been to work with phenomenological questions in severe accidents, concentrating on the risk-dominating issues. The work is reported in separate sub-project reports, the present is the final report of the methodological studies as well as a final report for the total project. The research has led to clarifications of the risk complex, and ameliorated the basis for advanced probabilistic safety analyses, specially for the emission risks (PSA level 2) which are being studied at the Swedish plants. A new method has been tried for analysis of complicated accident courses, giving a possibility for systematic evaluation of the impact of different important phenomena (e.g. melt-through, high pressure melt-through with direct heating of the containment atmosphere, steam explosions). In this method, the phenomena are looked upon as top events of a `phenomena-tree`, illustrating how various conditions must be met before the top-event can happen. This method has been useful, in particular for applying `expert estimates`. 47 refs.

  6. Accident risks in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, P.

    2005-01-01

    This article discusses the accident rate of natural gas installations, which are quoted by the author to be lowest of all fossil fuels. The statistics on accidents and their consequences are looked at for the whole natural gas supply chain. The results of a study commissioned by the Swiss Gas and Water Professionals Association (SVGW) are presented and discussed. Statistics for the European Union and Eastern Europe are looked at and analysed. The study's methodological basis is described and the criteria used for the definition of an accident considered to be 'serious' are listed. The results of comparisons made of various energy chains are presented and discussed. Graphics are presented of frequency of occurrence and seriousness of damage for various forms of energy as well as for maximum possible consequences of accidents. Specific analyses for the natural gas chain are presented

  7. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  8. Study on risk factors of PWR accidents beyond design basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Seung Hoon; Nah, W. J.; Bang, Y. S.; Oh, D. Y.; Oh, S. H.

    2005-01-01

    Development of the regulatory guidelines for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA) with high risk requires a detailed investigation of major factors contributing to the event risk. In this study, each event was classified by the level of risk, based on the probabilistic safety assessment results, so that BDBA with high risk could be selected, with consideration of foreign and domestic regulations, and operating experiences. The regulatory requirements and technical backgrounds for the selected accidents were investigated, and effective regulatory approaches for risk reduction of the accidents. The following conclusions were drawn from this study: - Selected high risk BDBA is station blackout, anticipated without scram, total loss of feedwater. - Major contributors to the risk of selected events were investigated, and appropriate assessment of them was recommended for development of the regulatory guidelines

  9. Risk Analysis of Fukushima Accident using MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seunghee; Kim, Juyoul; Kim, Sukhoon; Kim, Juyub [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    It has been three years since Fukushima Daiichi accident had occurred. Many efforts have been done for a restoration, however, radioactive materials are still released resulting in a crucial additional damage to a human health and economics and the scale of damage is not much evaluated. Therefore, an estimation of damage degree caused by the released radioactive materials right after a nuclear accident is essential to cope with additional radioactive problems. Here, we report the risk analysis of Fukushima Dai-ichi accident using MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2), which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code for evaluating off-site consequences. It is used in level-3 Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA), for planning purposes, for cost-benefit analyses and so on. The purpose of this study is to estimate radiological doses and health risks of Fukushima Daiichi accident through short- and long-term of lifetime using MACCS2. In summary, the health risk for inhabitants near Fukushima Daiichi NPP has been evaluated by considering the long term radiation effect using MACCS2 code. The result indicates that the occurrence and death rate of the cancer have been increased by the radioactive materials released from Fukushima Daiichi accident. The result obtained in this study may provide new insights for taking action after the nuclear reactor accident to mitigate the released radioactive materials and to prepare the countermeasure.

  10. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  11. Usage of geotechnologies for risk management in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A.A.; Marques, F.A.P.; Murta, Y.L.

    2017-01-01

    Through the use of geotechnologies an important tool can be created for risk management in radiation accidents. With the use of the QGIS software (Las Palmas version), it is shown its applicability in situations of radiological emergency, as in the case of the accident with cesium-137 in Goiânia. The work analyses the risk of a possible accident with the deposit of cesium wastes that still remains in the region, aiming to protect the population with the best exit routes and forms of allocation of the residents

  12. Perceptions of risk factors for road traffic accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Andrew; Smith, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Research has identified a number of risk factors for road traffic accidents. Some of these require education of drivers and a first step in this process is to assess perceptions of these risk factors to determine the current level of awareness. An online survey examined risk perception with the focus being on driver behavior, risk taking and fatigue. The results showed that drivers’ perceptions of the risk from being fatigued was lower than the perceived risk from the other factors.

  13. Forecasting individual breast cancer risk using plasma metabolomics and biocontours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bro, Rasmus; Kamstrup-Nielsen, Maja Hermann; Engelsen, Søren Balling

    2015-01-01

    by chemometric data fusion. It was possible to create a biocontour, which we define as a complex pattern of relevant biological and phenotypic information. While single markers or known risk factors have close to no predictive value, the developed biocontour provides a forecast which, several years before...

  14. Psychic pathology of anthropogenic accidents at risk enterprises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pukhovskij, N.N.

    1993-01-01

    The literary data on the clinic and pathogenesis distinctions of traumatic and posttraumatic stress following the accidents are analyzed. The inner contradictory character of the Chernobyl NPP operators reaction to psychodraumatic situation is revealed. A number of concepts liable to discussion is given: inner contradiction of the reactions to traumatic stress on account of accidents at risk cuterprises puts forward the way for psychology evolution in process, besides, posttraumatic stress may be considered as one of the stages of such evolution; the misuse of spirits by the persons with traumatic stress appeared on account of accidents at risk enterprises puts forward the way for the subsequent evolution towards psychic degeneration; the prevailing effect of the reality denial among the personnel of the risk enterprises may form a muthcreative attitude to technical sphere and play a certain role in the emergence of anthropogenic accidents at these enterprises. 22 refs

  15. EPRI nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The present results of the nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute show that the total risk contribution of the nuclear fuel cycle is only approx. 1% of the accident risk of the power plant; hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is essentially that of the power plant itself. The power-plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005 is only approx. 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. The smallness of the fuel-cycle risk relative to the power-plant risk may be attributed to the lack of internal energy to drive an accident and the small amount of dispersible material. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihood of errors and the estimated size of errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault-tree analysis, with the release source terms calculated using physicochemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with CRAC (Consequences of Reactor Accident Code). No evacuation or mitigation is considered; source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/t) and short cooling period (90 to 150 d); high-efficiency particulate air filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  16. Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

  17. The nuclear accident risk: a territorial approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambroise, Pascal

    2011-01-01

    How many people live in the vicinity of French nuclear power stations? Recent events - notably in Japan, but also in France - highlight the urgent need to be able to predict the possible effects of a nuclear accident on surrounding territories. Here, Ambroise Pascal identifies two key criteria for such an estimation: residential density and land use. (author)

  18. Effects of the Chernobyl accident on public perceptions of nuclear plant accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindell, M.K.; Perry, R.W.

    1990-01-01

    Assessments of public perceptions of the characteristics of a nuclear power plant accident and affective responses to its likelihood were conducted 5 months before and 1 month after the Chernobyl accident. Analyses of data from 69 residents of southwestern Washington showed significant test-retest correlations for only 10 of 18 variables--accident likelihood, three measures of impact characteristics, three measures of affective reactions, and hazard knowledge by governmental sources. Of these variables, only two had significant changes in mean ratings; frequency of thought and frequency of discussion about a nearby nuclear power plant both increased. While there were significant changes only for two personal consequences (expectations of cancer and genetic effects), both of these decreased. The results of this study indicate that more attention should be given to assessing the stability of risk perceptions over time. Moreover, the data demonstrate that experience with a major accident can actually decrease rather than increase perceptions of threat

  19. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  1. Perspectives on the economic risks of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Burke, R.P.

    1986-01-01

    Models which can be used for the analysis of the economic risks from events which may occur during LWR operation have been developed. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The economic consequence models have been applied in studies of the economic risks from the operation of US LWR plants. The results of the analyses provide some important perspectives regarding the economic risks of LWR accidents. The analyses indicate that economic risks, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by the onsite costs of relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for a typical US plant

  2. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  3. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Guizhen; Zhang Lei; Lu Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China.

  4. Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children's assessment of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Mary Sissons; Maclean, Morag; Stevens, Claire

    2018-02-01

    Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10-11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents (e.g. bike accidents) underestimated; and the majority of children showed unrealistic optimism tending to see themselves as less likely to suffer these accidents in comparison to their peers, offering superior skills or parental control of the environment as an explanation. In the case of pedestrian accidents, children recognised their seriousness, underestimated the frequency of this risk and regarded their own road crossing skill as protection. These findings highlight the challenging task facing safety educators who, when teaching conventional safety knowledge and routines, also need to alert children to the danger of over-confidence without disabling them though fear. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Normal accidents living with high-risk technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Perrow, Charles

    1984-01-01

    Normal Accidents analyzes the social side of technological risk. Charles Perrow argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may help create new categories of accidents. (At Chernobyl, tests of a new safety system helped produce the meltdown and subsequent fire.) By recognizing two dimensions of risk--complex versus linear interactions, and tight versus loose coupling--this book provides a powerful framework for analyzing risks and the organizations that insist we run them.

  6. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

  7. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  8. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Spiekerman, G.; Dones, R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper addresses one of the major limitations of the current comparative studies of environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues. The assessments concern full energy chains associated with fossil sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. A comprehensive severe accidents database has been established. Thanks to the variety of information sources used, it exhibits in comparison with other corresponding databases a far more extensive coverage of the energy-related accidents. For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic approach has been employed and extended to cover the economic consequences of power reactor accidents. Results of comparisons between the various energy chains are shown and discussed along with a number of current issues in comparative assessment of severe accidents. As opposed to the previous studies, the aim of the present work has been, to cover whenever possible, a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 18 refs

  9. Factors Affecting Accidents Risks among Truck Drivers In Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elshamly Ahmed Fathalla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Egypt is ranked among the countries with the highest rates of road accidents. According to the American Chamber of Commerce more than 96% of Egypt's goods are transported by trucks and due to their large volume and excessive weight, the severity and number of truck accident fatalities are much higher than other vehicles in Egypt. The present study aims at identifying truck driver's behavior and its influence on crash involvement. Due to the shortage in recording accident data and the inaccurate road accident audit, data was collected from several governorates in Egypt through questionnaire. Questionnaire forms were filled out through personal interviews with truck drivers. The total number of respondents was 643. The final analysis was made on the 615 questionnaires with complete answers. The data was analyzed and logistic regression was applied to accident related data to examine the contributing factors affecting accident occurrence of truck drivers. Results showed that fatigue in terms of driving hours (continuous and total and lack of sleep, drug use during driving, and driver obesity are the most influencing factors on the occurrence of truck accidents in Egypt. The findings of this research highlight the important role human factors have on the risk of crash involvement amongst Egypt's truck drivers and the need to improve their work conditions.

  10. Severe accidents risk assessment as a basis for emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinka, D.; Mikulicic, V.

    2000-01-01

    The paper demonstrates, by example of the Republic of Croatia, the possibilities of implementing risk assessment as basis for nuclear accident emergency preparedness development. Individual risks of severe accidents for citizens of the biggest Croatian population centers, as well as collective risk for entire population have been assessed using the PRONEL method. The assessment covered 90 power reactors located at a distance up to 1.000 km. The conducted assessment shows the risks for various regions of the Republic of Croatia, and comparison between them. If risk would be taken as basic criterion in nuclear emergency planning, the results of assessment would directly indicate the necessary preparation level for each region. Furthermore, the assessment of risks from individual power plants and power plant types indicates to which facilities the greatest attention should be paid in nuclear accidents preparedness development. Risks from groups of power plants formed in accordance with their respective distance from exposure location shows what kind of tools for determining consequences and protective actions during a nuclear accident should be made available. (author)

  11. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  12. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  13. Assessment of accident risks from german nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The German risk study are presented. The main objectives can be summed up as follows: (a) An assessment of the societal risk due to accidents in nuclear power plants with reference to German conditions; (b) To get experience in the field of risk analysis and to provide a basis for estimation of uncertainties; (c) To provide guidance for future activities in the German Reactor Safety Research Program. Finally several conclusions reached by this study are discussed. (author)

  14. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borga, M.; Anagnostou, E.N.; Bloeschl, G.; Creutin, J.-D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  15. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by ''rare''? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate "1"3"7Cs and gaseous "1"3"1I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted "1"3"7Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of "1"3"7Cs and "1"3"1I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  16. CAViaR-based forecast for oil price risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Dashan; Yu, Baimin; Fabozzi, Frank J.; Fukushima, Masao

    2009-01-01

    As a benchmark for measuring market risk, value-at-risk (VaR) reduces the risk associated with any kind of asset to just a number (amount in terms of a currency), which can be well understood by regulators, board members, and other interested parties. This paper employs a new VaR approach due to Engle and Manganelli [Engle, R.F., Manganelli, S., 2004. CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22, 367-381] to forecasting oil price risk. In doing so, we provide two original contributions by introducing a new exponentially weighted moving average CAViaR model and developing a mixed data regression model for multi-period VaR prediction. (author)

  17. Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Different Distributional Assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Braione

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial asset returns are known to be conditionally heteroskedastic and generally non-normally distributed, fat-tailed and often skewed. These features must be taken into account to produce accurate forecasts of Value-at-Risk (VaR. We provide a comprehensive look at the problem by considering the impact that different distributional assumptions have on the accuracy of both univariate and multivariate GARCH models in out-of-sample VaR prediction. The set of analyzed distributions comprises the normal, Student, Multivariate Exponential Power and their corresponding skewed counterparts. The accuracy of the VaR forecasts is assessed by implementing standard statistical backtesting procedures used to rank the different specifications. The results show the importance of allowing for heavy-tails and skewness in the distributional assumption with the skew-Student outperforming the others across all tests and confidence levels.

  18. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong; Kim, HyeongTaek

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  19. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  20. Risks of accidents and their consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauvenet, A.

    1977-01-01

    The idea of risk calls out both the probability of occurrence of a damageable event and the damage intensity. Probability calculus was originated in the 17th century; PASCAL, its initiator, immediately considered its application to everyday life. Presently two trends are to be observed: the former will apply probability calculus, and the game theory that follows, to decision-making in the technical, economical or management fields; the latter remains subjective, close to ancestral fears, hardly pervaded with the principles of risk rationalization. A number of original probabilitic studies have been devoted to the nuclear field showing that nuclear risks just as the collective risks experienced by man are lower than individual risks yet little considered by up-to-date mass media. It is desirable that society should be clearly aware of these problems. Such a long-term problem goes through youth education and public information [fr

  1. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turvey, F.J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

  2. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turvey, F J [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

    1996-10-01

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of `tolerable` risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid.

  3. Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, Peter; Hirschberg, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO 2 -emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

  4. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, G.; Zhang, L.; Lu, Y.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major

  5. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  6. Nuclear power plant safety - the risk of accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higson, D.; Crancher, D.W.

    1975-08-01

    Although it is physically impossible for any nuclear plant to explode like an atom bomb, an accidental release of radioactive material into the environment is conceivable. Three factors reduce the probability of such releases, in dangerous quantities, to an extremely low level. Firstly, there are many safety features built into the plant including a leaktight containment building to prevent the escape of such material. Secondly, the quality of engineering and standards used are far more demanding than in conventional power engineering. Thirdly, strict government licensing and regulatory control is enforced at all phases from design through construction to operation. No member of the general public is known to have been injured or died as a result of any accident to a commercial nuclear power plant. Ten workers have died as a result of over-exposure to radiation from experimental reactors and laboratory work connected with the development of nuclear plant since 1945. Because of this excellent safety record the risk of serious accidents can only be estimated. On the basis of such estimates, the chance of an accident in a nuclear power reactor which could cause a detectable increase in the incidence of radiation-induced illnesses would be less than one chance in a million per year. In a typical highly industrialised society, such as the USA, the estimated risk of an individual being killed by such accidents, from one hundred operating reactors, is no greater than one chance in sixteen million per year. There are undoubtedly risks from reactor accidents but estimates of these risks show that they are considerably less than from other activities which are accepted by society. (author)

  7. Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

  8. Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1979-01-01

    A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

  9. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2016-01-01

    overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy...... smoothing. Simulations demonstrate notable improvements of the control efficiency when considering forecast information and additionally when considering forecast uncertainty, compared with optimization based on current basin fillings only....

  10. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

    1987-11-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  11. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  12. Status report on the EPRI fuel cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Fullwood, R.R.; Garcia, A.A.; Mendoza, Z.T.; Ritzman, R.L.; Stevens, C.A.

    1979-07-01

    This report summarizes and extends the work reported in five unpublished draft reports: the accidental radiological risk of reprocessing spent fuel, mixed oxide fuel fabrication, the transportation of materials within the fuel cycle, and the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the routine atmospheric radiological risk of mining and milling uranium-bearing ore. Results show that the total risk contribution of the fuel cycle is only about 1% of the accident risk of the power plant and hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is that of the power plant itself. The power plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005, is only about 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihoods and estimated errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault tree analysis with the release source terms calculated using physical--chemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with the CRAC code. No evacuation or mitigation is considered: source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/T) and short cooling (90 to 150 d); HEPA filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  13. Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

    2010-10-01

    In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe

  14. The management of risk to society from potential accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, F.R.; Garlick, A.R.; Hayns, M.R.; Taig, A.R.

    1992-01-01

    The main report of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) Working Group on Risks to Society from Potential Major Accidents is presented. It is the outcome of a study by AEA Technology, the trading name of the UKAEA, in support of its own decision-making on risk management of the nuclear plants and laboratories it controls. The principles underlying decisions on social risk are of much broader applicability, however. The report is prefaced by an Executive Summary which is intended to be a stand-alone summary of the results of the study. The topics covered include: an examination of the nature of risk; the distinction to be drawn between individual and societal risk; existing risks; risk estimation; goals and targets as defined in terms of acceptance, tolerability and comparison between risks; regulations relating to risk targets; risk management decisions in theory and practice; societal risk management. A final chapter brings together the conclusions and recommendations from the preceding nine with respect to risk estimation, evaluation, management and overall approach. Two appendices deal with cost benefit analysis and provide a glossary and acronyms. (UK)

  15. Nuclear power: accident probabilities, risks, and benefits. A bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-02-01

    This report is a selected listing of 396 documents pertaining to nuclear accident probability and nuclear risk. Because of the attention focused on these concepts by the recent (August 1974) publication of the draft of WASH-1400, ''Reactor Safety Study,'' it is intended that this bibliography make conveniently available the existence of relevant literature on these concepts. Such an awareness will enhance an understanding of probability and risk as applied to nuclear power plants and is essential to their further development and/or application. This bibliography includes first a listing of the selected documents with abstracts and keywords, followed by three indexes: (1) keyword, (2) author, and (3) permuted title

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  17. Multicomponent risk inherent to nuclear or radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poyarkov, V.A.

    1997-01-01

    A nuclear or radiation emergency response planning is based on expected avertable doses for a short (4 hours, 2 days, 1 week) and a long (50 or 70 years) periods of time. On calculating the doses one should take into account not only the sources of ionizing radiation with their foreseen characteristics, e.g. a half-life, but also the possibility of their probabilistic transformations. It can be illustrated by the chronicle of Chernobyl accident, where for nine days it was impossible to envisage with reliability the quantities of released radionuclides due to many uncontrolled factors related to the scope and character of the zone wreckage. Any other developments of the accident, such as destruction of the under reactor support plate, sinking of the melted zone into a highly radioactive water down at the reactor cavity or changing of the wind could have resulted in a substantial contamination of 3 mln. Kiev and other densely populated area of Ukraine. Another factor to be taken into account in the emergency response is a way of an actual risk perception by the population. The article suggests an approach to take into account the time-dependent secondary sources of exposure and the disparity in accepting the hazard of real risk of an accident by the trained workers and population. (author)

  18. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks

  19. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  20. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  1. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants: Appendices A, B, and C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-12-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two or the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide release and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. Volume 2 of this report contains three appendices, providing greater detail on the methods used, an example risk calculation, and more detailed discussion of particular technical issues found important in the risk studies

  2. Assessment of risk of accident at work as an indicator of safe behaviour of workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pisiewicz, K

    1978-10-01

    In 1977 the Psychology and Sociology Research Development Unit of the Central Mining Institute carried out research on the influence of assessment of the accident risk on the safe behaviour of workers. 450 workers employed at the longwall faces in 6 coal mines with various accident rates were questioned. It was found that a low assessment of risk favours hazardous operations, contrary to the principles of work safety, while a high assessment of the risk does not favour hazardous operations. Miners employed in coal mines with high accident rates tend to a low assessment of accident risk (arithmetic mean x 48.54) in comparison to miners from mines with low accident rates (arithmetic mean x 53.68). It was also found that the arithmetic mean of assessment of risks among workers who had had an accident at work is lower (x 50.3) than among workers who had not yet had an accident at work (x 55.32).

  3. Risk assessment of aircraft accidents anywhere near an airport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbaran, Gustavo; Jensen Mariani Santiago Nicolas

    2011-01-01

    This work analyzes the more suitable areas to build new facilities, taking into account the conditions imposed by an airport located nearby. Initially, it describes the major characteristics of the airport. Then, the restrictions imposed to ensure the normal operation of the aircraft are analyzed. Following, there is a summary of the evolution of studies of aircraft accidents at nuclear facilities. In the second part, three models of aircraft crash probabilities are presented, all of them developed in the U.S.A, each with an increasing level of complexity in modeling the likelihood of accidents. The first model is the 'STD-3014' Department of Energy (DOE), the second is the 'ACRAM'(Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology) prepared by the 'Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory'(LLNL) and finally the more advanced 'ACRP-3', produced by the 'Transportation Research Board'. The results obtained with the three models establish that the risks imposed on the airport vicinity, remain low due to the improvement and innovation in the aircraft's safety, reducing the risk margin for the location of new nuclear facilities near an airport. (author) [es

  4. APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frid, W.; Hammar, L.; Soederman, E.

    1996-12-01

    The APRI-project started in 1992 with participation of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish utilities. The Finnish utility TVO joined the project in 1993. The aim of the project has been to work with phenomenological questions in severe accidents, concentrating on the risk-dominating issues. The work is reported in separate sub-project reports, the present is the final report of the methodological studies as well as a final report for the total project. The research has led to clarifications of the risk complex, and ameliorated the basis for advanced probabilistic safety analyses, specially for the emission risks (PSA level 2) which are being studied at the Swedish plants. A new method has been tried for analysis of complicated accident courses, giving a possibility for systematic evaluation of the impact of different important phenomena (e.g. melt-through, high pressure melt-through with direct heating of the containment atmosphere, steam explosions). In this method, the phenomena are looked upon as top events of a 'phenomena-tree', illustrating how various conditions must be met before the top-event can happen. This method has been useful, in particular for applying 'expert estimates'. 47 refs

  5. Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

  6. Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxat, J.C. [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

    2013-06-15

    Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

  7. Seismic isolation of plants at risk of a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    More and more devastating earthquakes struck every year our planet. Many of these, though occurring in areas considered at high risk of earthquakes, far exceed the levels required by law. The industrial plants subjected to risk of severe accident, in particular petrochemical and nuclear power plants, are particularly exposed to this risk because of the number and the complexity of the structures and critical components of which they are composed. For this type of structures, anti-seismic techniques able to provide complete protection, even in case of unforeseen events, are needed. Seismic isolation is certainly the most promising technology of modern antiseismic as it allows not only to significantly reduce the dynamic load acting on the structures in case of seismic attack, but to provide safety margins against violent earthquakes, exceeding the assumed maximum design limit. [it

  8. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  9. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  10. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United State. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two of the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide releases and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. This report, Volume 3, contains two appendices. Appendix D summarizes comments received, and staff responses, on the first (February 1987) draft of NUREG-1150. Appendix E provides a similar summary of comments and responses, but for the second (June 1989) version of the report

  11. Oil spill monitoring and forecasting on the Prestige-Nassau accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montero, P.; Blanco, J.; Cabanas, J.M.; Maneiro, J.; Pazos, Y.; Morono, A. [Unidade de Observacion Proxima CPAM, Vilaxoan, Pontevedra (Spain); Balseiro, C.F.; Carracedo, P.; Gomez, B.; Penabad, E.; Perez-Munuzuri, V. [MeteoGalicia CMA, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Braunschweig, F.; Fernandes, R.; Leitao, P.C.; Neves, R. [MARETEC IST, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2003-07-01

    The Prestige-Nassau tanker ship spilled about 10,000 tons of oil off the coast of Spain on November 13, 2002 during a severe storm. On November 19, the ship split in half and sank 133 nautical miles from the Galician coast to a depth of 3,500 metres, spilling another 20,000 tons of oil. The Galician government set up an Office of Nearshore Surveillance and recruited people from the Galician Regional Meteorological Service and the Spanish Institute of Oceanography to monitor the slick and forecast its trajectory. The main spill arrived at Galicia on November 30, damaging most of the coast. A variety of models that combined surface wind drift and ocean currents were used to forecast the movement of the spill. These included the Mothy from MeteoFrance, and DERIVA from the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute. Two models were also developed by MeteoGalicia and MAETEC. The path followed by the oil spill was classified in three parts. The first spill of 10,000 tons took place from November 13 until the ship split in two. The second spill of around 20,000 tons of oil occurred when the ship sank on November 19. The last spill includes oil that continued to leak from the sunken tanker at a rate of 125 tons per day. The trajectory predictions were found to be in good agreement with aerial observations. 24 refs., 10 figs.

  12. 77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-09

    ... Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Standard... its Standard Review Plan (SRP), Section 19.0, ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident... assessment (PRA) information and severe accident assessments for new reactors submitted to support design...

  13. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, J. T.; Jeong, W. D.

    2001-01-01

    The computerized system NARIS (Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analyses of the distribution of the health effects. The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  14. Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

    1996-01-01

    For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

  15. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

  16. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    OpenAIRE

    Mehran Amiri; Abdollah Ardeshir; Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were d...

  17. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  18. How can food risks be prevented after a nuclear accident?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barillon, A.

    2008-01-01

    In exercises, risk prevention measures relating to contaminated foods generally involve areas where the consumption and sale of foods are prohibited if exceed the European Council food intervention levels (CFILs) defined following the Chernobyl accident. However, CFILs do not offer systematic protection for population living in the immediate vicinity of an accident, because this standards only consider those living farther and are only likely to be contaminated by eating contaminated foods, which may arrive in limited quantities from the contaminated area byway of international trade. The CODIRPA 'Life in contaminated rural areas' working group has therefore put forward some proposed guidelines to delimit two separate areas: i) a 'food prohibition area', where a comprehensive and systematic ban would be temporarily placed on the consumption and marketing of locally produced foods; ii) a larger 'monitoring area', where, following a temporary ban, foodstuffs would be marketed in accordance with European or international standards. Consumption of locally produced foods would be authorised there, subject to 'good food hygiene' recommendations. Decision criteria and areas delimitation are here submitted for the new zoning system. (author)

  19. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID:25325460

  20. Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxat, J.C., E-mail: luxatj@mcmaster.ca [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

  1. Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

  2. Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA Fatalities in Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim Fareed M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9; in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita. A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916; however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

  3. Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Fatalities in Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Fareed M. A.; Abdo Saleh, Ali; Taijoobux, Aref; Ševrović, Marko

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9); in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita). A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916); however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

  4. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risk in the Pickering a risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinnie, K.S.; Raina, V.M.

    1997-01-01

    The nature of the design of commercial power plants is such that significant impacts on public health can only occur if a number of barriers fail. Rigorous design and licensing requirements ensure that the more likely accidents do not fail all these barriers and their contribution to risk is likely to be small. The task of estimating accident risk must, therefore, focus more towards those less likely but potentially more serious combinations of failures that are characterized by the following: a) a large release of fission products into the containment atmosphere, b) a breach in the containment envelope, and c) the existence of a driving force to expel the containment atmosphere to the outside environment. The likelihood of such conditions existing simultaneously during the course of an accident is expected to be small, such that experience and data regarding the behaviour of plant systems under such conditions is sparse or non-existent. The challenge of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is to examine the potential for severe accidents using approaches that are sufficiently detailed and realistic to provide valid information regarding plant risk and susceptibilities, while simple enough to keep the analysis manageable. This paper outlines the key features of the Pickering A Risk Assessment (PARA) (1) and the manner in which it addresses these issues, and provides some insights into the results and conclusions drawn from the study. (author)

  6. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, Jan Christian

    2012-01-01

    Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 4; 62) severe accidents am...

  7. The potential importance of water pathways for spent fuel transportation accident risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostmeyer, R.M.

    1986-01-01

    This paper analyzes the potential importance of water pathway contamination for spent fuel transportation accident risk using a ''worst-case'' water contamination scenario. The scenario used for the analysis involves an accident release that occurs near a reservoir. Water pathway doses are compared to doses for accident releases in urban or agricultural areas. The results of the analysis indicate that water pathways are not important for assessing the risk of transporting spent reactor fuel by truck or by rail

  8. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  9. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  11. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  12. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: christine.hendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Lowry, Gregory V., E-mail: glowry@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Unrine, Jason M., E-mail: jason.unrine@uky.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Agricultural Science Center, Lexington, KY 40546 (United States); Wiesner, Mark R., E-mail: wiesner@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall PO Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  13. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V.; Unrine, Jason M.; Wiesner, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  14. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  15. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveque, Francois

    2013-01-01

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  16. A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  17. A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  18. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the road......This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...

  19. Application and inspiration of risk control in dose control in Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shaoqing; Chen Yan; Chai Jianshe; Zhang Chunming

    2013-01-01

    The article introduced the basic concept of risk and risk control methods. Using the risk control methods, we analyzed and evaluated the actions to control dose of public and occupational radiation exposure in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, especially found out the weak points of these actions, and finally discussed the application of the risk control methods in dose management during nuclear accidents. (authors)

  20. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  1. Assessment of radiation risk as a part of ecological risk in the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltanova, Irina; Saltanov, Eugene

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The purpose of the work: foundation for principles of planning protection measures, that provide safety for population activity on the territories, contaminated with radio-nuclides, by analysing radio-chemical situation, using risk assessment methods. Problems set in the work: -) Analyses of radiation risk in the structure of ecological risk in the territory of the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident; -) Investigation of chemical risk level, connected with air pollution from stationary objects exhausts, for the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides; -) Modelling of the combined impact of ionising radiation and chemical carcinogen for the possible ecological risk assessment; -) Involving modern geo informational systems in the radio-ecological risk assessment process; -) Foundation for the assessment methodology of the complex influence of negative factors in the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides. The problems are solved by carrying out specific experiments and by analysing published and own data on radioactive and chemical contamination of some regions of Belarus. Major findings: Radiation input to the really registered carcinogens is estimated to app. 10 %. In case of multiple factors influence of different contaminators of industrial and natural origin (i.e. radiation is not the only negative factor), ignorance of non-radiation origin factors may seriously distort estimation of radiation risk, when it is related to the registered effects. Radiation should be in no way treated as the major factor of real ecological risk in Belarus. Method for comparative analysis of territories' ecological risk level is developed and implemented. A GIS segment, that includes subsystem of the real and forecasted radio-ecological mapping, is created. The authors grounded the experimental model for study the complex influence of radioactive and non-radioactive (chemical carcinogen) factors. Revealed dependencies 'dose

  2. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1993-10-01

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km 2 . The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs

  3. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz-Sjoeberg, B M [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research; Rumyantseva, G M; Martyvshov, A N [The Serbsky Research Institute, Moscow, (Russian Federation)

    1993-10-01

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km{sup 2}. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs.

  4. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  5. Evaluation of severe accident safety system value based on averting financial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatch, S.W.; Benjamin, A.S.; Bennett, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to benchmark the risks from nuclear power plants and to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of severe accident safety features. This paper describes the program in general and presents some preliminary results. These results include estimates of the financial risks associated with the operation of six reference plants and the value of severe accident prevention and mitigation safety systems in averting these risks. The results represent initial calculations and will be iterated before being used to support NRC decisions

  6. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed

  7. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An empirical study of the relationship between earnings forecasts and risk profile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malekian Esfandiar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new approach to examine the relationship between the excess of forecast based on characteristics toward management forecast and business risk is provided in this research at companies listed on the stock exchange in Tehran.The customary (traditional (approach is based on the regression of management forecast errors of past years. Therefore, the observable and unobservable inputs, such as managements, incentive misalignment, are used to predict management forecast errors. In this study, the future earnings is at first estimated by using characteristics including earnings per share, loss indicator, Neg. accruals per share , Pos. accruals per share ,asset growth , dividend indicator (non-payment of the dividend, Book-to-market value, share price and dividend per share for companies. Based on that, a criterion (CO for estimating the earnings forecast error was developed, which is the alternative forecasted errors. One should notice that, business risk is considered as a measure of company performance. In this study, measures of business risk are volatility of earnings and dividend ratio. Research findings show that, there is a significant relationship between the CO and volatility of earnings, on the contrary there is no significant relationship between this criteria and dividend ratio

  9. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  10. Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K.

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. MATERIAL AND METHODS A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. RESULTS The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m2). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). CONCLUSION The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers. PMID:29755810

  11. Radiation risk in Republics Belarus after Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltanova, I.

    2006-01-01

    under observation by the year 2004. The obtained results conform to the other authors' conclusions (Malko M.V., 2001, 2003). In the framework of the ICRP model it's shown that a maximum possible influence of the radiation contamination factor can't be a source of the actually registered carcinogenic risk. In this connection, an analysis of the ecological hazard non-radiation components is of importance. By now, the scientific community has achieved the understanding of the fact that a chemical pollution risk can be compared with a risk of the radiation contamination even in the regions mostly suffered from the accident at the Chernobyl atomic power station. Furthermore, under a combined influence of a complex of factors, there is a risk of a nonlinear enhancement of the adverse effects. In this connection, an urgent problem appeared consisting of the new approach elaboration on the evaluation of the technogenic environment contamination, under which an influence of different adverse factors would be expressed in comparable values, suitable for their comparative analysis. This problem solving refers first of all to the decision making optimization at the safety arrangements planning on the contaminated territories. (author)

  12. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  13. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milczarek, M.; Brun, E.; Houtman, I.; Goudswaard, A.; Evers, M.; Bovenkamp, M. van de; Roskams, N.; Op de Beeck, R.; Pahkin, K.; Berthet, M.; Morvan, E.; Kuhn, K.; Kaluza, K.; Hupke, M.; Hauke, A.; Reinert, D.; Widerszal-Bazyl, M.; Perez, J.; Oncins de Frutos, M.

    2007-01-01

    This report is in cooperation with TNO Work and Employment and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. The expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks was carried out by means of the Delphi method. The main emerging psychosocial risks revealed were related to new forms of employment

  14. Determining cutoff distances for assessing risks from transportation accident radiation releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Kimura, C.Y.; Brumburgh, G.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of radioactive materials throughout the United States and the world is a ubiquitous and sometimes controversial activity. Almost universally, these transportation activities have been performed without major incident, and the safety record for transportation of radioactive material is outstanding compared with the transportation of other hazardous materials. Nevertheless, concerns still exist regarding adequate regulation of radioactive material transportation and accurate assessment of the health risks associated with accidents. These concerns are addressed through certification by the cognizant regulatory authority over the transportation container or the performance of a transportation risk assessment. In a transportation risk assessment, accident situations are examined, frequencies are estimated, and consequences resulting from the accident are analyzed and evaluated for acceptance. A universal question with any transportation risk assessment that examines the radiological consequences from release accidents is, At what distance may the dispersion analysis be terminated? This paper examines cutoff distances and their consequences for assessing health risks from radiological transportation releases

  15. Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Sohanur

    2017-12-01

    Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

  16. [Labor accidents involving the eyes: assessment of occupational risks involving nursing workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Cristiana Brasil; Pagliuca, Lorita Marlena Freitag; Leite, Ana Lourdes Almeida e Silva

    2005-01-01

    The study aimed at identifying nursing workers who were victims of eye accidents and the type of accident; describing the measures taken and proposing Health Education methods. A descriptive and exploratory study was carried out at a public maternity hospital from September 2002 to January 2003. Data were collected through direct observation of the environment and interviews with workers. Subjects were ten professionals (one nurse, two technicians and seven nursing auxiliaries) who were victims of work accidents involving the eye. The accidents were grouped according to the type of material that caused the trauma: chemical substances (4), medication (3), mechanical trauma (1), scalp (1) and urine (1). The results reveal that hospital workers are vulnerable to labor accidents because the environment presents biological, chemical and physical risks. An important step to prevent the occurrence of new accidents would be the prevention of human mistakes through permanent training and the use of protection glasses.

  17. Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamadfam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

  18. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binquan Li

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2% were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band for the reservoir flood routing calculation.

  19. A validation study of the intertran model for assessing risks of transportation accidents: Road transport of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomachevsky, E.G.; Ringot, C.; Pages, P.; Hubert, P.

    1985-06-01

    The INTERTRAN code was developed by the IAEA in order to provide member states with a simple and rapide method of assessing the risk involved in the transportation of radioactive materials and one which was applicable on a worldwide scale. Before being used, this code must be validated and the CEA thus compared the results obtained with the conventional risk assessment methods used by the CEPN with those derived from INTERTRAN. This paper gives the results of the studies made on the subject of road transportation of uranium hexafluoride in France. The conventional accident risk assessment method gave a figure of 8.84 x 10 -4 deaths/year, whereas INTERTRAN announces 1.78 x 10 -2 . To these figures should be added 3.38 x 10 -2 deaths/year, which is the intrinsic road risk, whatever the goods carried. In relation to conventional estimates, the INTERTRAN forecasts are five times lower for the U risk and twenty times higher for the HF risk. The chemical risk is indeed the most prevalent one in this case. Other comparisons are needed to validate this code

  20. Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1994-01-01

    The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia's Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented

  1. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, Finn

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s...... and consequent changes in job content. It was hypothesized that the combined effect of these factors might lead accident risks, both non-specific (aggregated) and specific (by kind), to increase with age. Accident risk ratios (ARRs), however, proved to be higher for younger workers than older ones, in both...... the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological...

  2. German Phase B [risk study] highlights the role of [reactor] accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    Phase B of the German probabilistic risk assessment study, now scheduled for publication this month, suggests that reactor accident management measures can prevent or mitigate about 90 per cent of event sequences. (author)

  3. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date...... the identification of models for cases with noisy in-sewer observations. For the prediction of the overflow risk, no improvement was demonstrated through the application of stochastic forecasts instead of point predictions, although this result is thought to be caused by the notably simplified setup used...

  4. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  5. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  6. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

  7. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. 42 refs., 51 figs., 52 tabs

  8. Effect of engineered safety features on the risk of hypothetical LMFBR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cybulskis, P.

    1978-01-01

    The risks of hypothetical core-disruptive accidents in liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors which involve meltthrough of the reactor vessel are compared for two plant designs: one design without specific provisions to accommodate such an accident and the other design with an ex-vessel core catcher and a cvity hot liner. The approach to risk analysis used is that developed in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). Since the probability of occurrence of such an event has not been evaluated, however, insight into the potential risk is gained only on a relative basis. The principal conclusions of this study are: (1) adding a core catcher--hot liner reduces the probabilty of accidents having major consequences; (2) the degree to which hot liner--core catcher systems can reduce the risk of melt-through accidents is limited by the failure probability of these systems; (3) fractional radioactive releases to the environment in the liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactor accidents considered are comparable to those from the light-water reactors evaluated in WASH-1400; (4) since sodium--concrete reactions are a dominant driving force during the accident, the integrity of the cavity liner is as important as the function of the core catcher; (5) there may be other accidents or paths to radioactive releases that are not affected by the addition of a hot liner--core catcher

  9. Effect of consecutive driving on accident risk: a comparison between passenger and freight train driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Ju, Lai-Shun

    2008-11-01

    This study combined driver-responsible accidents with on-board driving hours to examine the effect of consecutive driving on the accident risk of train operations. The data collected from the Taiwan Railway Administration for the period 1996-2006 was used to compute accident rates for varied accumulated driving hours for passenger and freight trains. The results showed that accident risk grew with increased consecutive driving hours for both passenger and freight trains, and doubled that of the first hour after four consecutive hours of driving. Additional accident risk was found for freight trains during the first hour due to required shunting in the marshalling yards where there are complex track layouts and semi-automatic traffic controls. Also, accident risk for train driving increased more quickly over consecutive driving hours than for automobile driving, and accumulated fatigue caused by high working pressure and monotony of the working environment are considered to be the part of the reason. To prevent human errors accidents, enhancing safety equipment, driver training programs, and establishing a sound auditing system are suggested and discussed.

  10. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  11. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

  12. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased.A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study.Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives.The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  13. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks.

  14. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-01

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

  15. Bankruptcy risk forecasting for the metallurgical branch in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Răchişan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available All investment decisions require a thorough analysis of the retrospective evolution of the entities from the concerned area, in order to estimate the long-term evolution perspectives. In this context, the present study analyzes the evolution of the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector based on the accounting and financial information published for the period 2008 - 2012 and, in fact, it justifies the situation from the perspective of users (managers, investors, auditors and of the economic environment specific to Romania. Starting from this premise we created a regression model particularly useful in forecasting the evolution of the ability to deal with debt for the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector.

  16. Accident risk and factors regarding non-motorised road users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerholm, Niels; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2015-01-01

    Almost half of all traffic fatalities worldwide are non-motorised road users (NMRUs). In Denmark, the number has increased with about 30%. NMRUs consist of about 63% of the injured in the Danish traffic. Much has been done to reduce the number of injured NMRUs with counterparts, while little effort...... is put into the reduction of the vast majority of the accidents, NMRU single accidents, which are about 90% of all injured NMRUs. There are no efficient tools available to reduce this number. A significantly better designed, maintained, and illuminated road network would most likely help. However......, that is expensive and not possible for most road authorities. Despite this, the challenges with NMRUs in single accidents need more attention, if road safety is to be improved. The situation in Denmark is more than likely the case in many other countries as well; although the documentation is scarce....

  17. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

    2005-01-01

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  18. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  19. Analysis of nuclear accidents and associated problems relevant to public perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naschi, G.; Petrangeli, G.

    1993-01-01

    The analytical study of nuclear accidents, even if they are limited in number, forms a significant part of the vast discipline of industrial plant risk analysis. The retrospective analysis of the causes and various elements which contributed to the evolution of real accidents, as well as, the evaluation of the consequences and lessons learned, constitute a bank of information which, when suitably elaborated through a process of rational synthesis, can strongly influence the preparation of safety normatives, plant design specifications, environmental impacts assessments, and the perception of risk. This latter aspect is gaining importance today as growing public awareness and sensitivity towards the development and use of new technologies now bear heavily on new plant decision making. This paper examines how the public perception of risk regarding nuclear energy has been influenced by the events surrounding the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accidents and the way in which information dissemination concerning these accidents was handled by mass media

  20. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a

  1. Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1982-01-01

    Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

  2. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  3. FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOON-EON YANG

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  4. Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jooneon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-02-15

    The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  5. The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T

    1999-11-01

    Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.

  6. A synthesis of studies of access point density as a risk factor for road accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2017-10-01

    Studies of the relationship between access point density (number of access points, or driveways, per kilometre of road) and accident frequency or rate (number of accidents per unit of exposure) have consistently found that accident rate increases when access point density increases. This paper presents a formal synthesis of the findings of these studies. It was found that the addition of one access point per kilometre of road is associated with an increase of 4% in the expected number of accidents, controlling for traffic volume. Although studies consistently indicate an increase in accident rate as access point density increases, the size of the increase varies substantially between studies. In addition to reviewing studies of access point density as a risk factor, the paper discusses some issues related to formally synthesising regression coefficients by applying the inverse-variance method of meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Zhang, X.

    2016-01-01

    We present a simple methodology for modeling the time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme that is similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. The parameters are updated using the score of the forecasting distribution, which allows the

  8. The trade-off between expected risk and the potential for large accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; de Leon, G.; Cullingford, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper, by Niehaus, de Leon, and Cullingford, examines the relationship between expected risk and the potential for large accidents. Using historical data for airplane accidents from 19471980, the authors show that a reduction of the expected value of risk often results in an increase in the potential for catastrophe. Phrased differently, the authors suggest that there may be a nenessary trade-off between high-probability/low-consequence risk and low-probability/high-consequence risk. The implications of this study for energy systems, for oil and gas supply, and for nuclear systems are also given

  9. Forecasting Portfolio Risk in Normal and Stressed Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Bhansali, Vineer; Wise, Mark B.

    2001-01-01

    The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated values. For instance, in times of severe market stress, one would expect with certainty to see the correlation of yield levels and credit spreads go to -1, even though historical estimates will miss this region of correlation. This event might lead to realized p...

  10. Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

    2012-01-01

    The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

  11. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveque, Francois

    2013-07-01

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  12. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  13. Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Emma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

  14. The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Bonaccolto

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Several market and macro-level variables influence the evolution of equity risk in addition to the well-known volatility persistence. However, the impact of those covariates might change depending on the risk level, being different between low and high volatility states. By combining equity risk estimates, obtained from the Realized Range Volatility, corrected for microstructure noise and jumps, and quantile regression methods, we evaluate the forecasting implications of the equity risk determinants in different volatility states and, without distributional assumptions on the realized range innovations, we recover both the points and the conditional distribution forecasts. In addition, we analyse how the the relationships among the involved variables evolve over time, through a rolling window procedure. The results show evidence of the selected variables’ relevant impacts and, particularly during periods of market stress, highlight heterogeneous effects across quantiles.

  15. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  16. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer. © World Health Organisation 2016. All rights reserved. The World Health Organization has granted Oxford University Press permission for the reproduction of this article.

  17. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, S.; Takamura, N.; Ohtsuru, A.; Suzuki, S.

    2016-01-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer. (authors)

  18. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for

  19. A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

  20. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  1. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  2. Review of the severe accident risk reduction program (SARRP) containment event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    A part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have constructed a group of containment event trees to be used in the analysis of key accident sequences for light water reactors (LWR) during postulated severe accidents. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide to the NRC staff a current assessment of the risk from severe reactor accidents for a group of five light water reactors. This review specifically focuses on the development and construction of the containment event trees and the results for containment failure probability, modes and timing. The report first gives the background on the program, the review criteria, and a summary of the observations, findings and recommendations. secondly, the individual reviews of each committee member on the event trees is presented. Finally, a review is provided on the computer model used to construct and evaluate the event trees

  3. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  4. Risks of insufficient information communication during the post-accident period of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joukovskaia, Olga V.; Rolevich, Igor V.

    2000-01-01

    The modified psychological climate and increased social-psychological pressure in the population, affected as a result of the Chernobyl accident, emerged partially because of insufficient information provided to the population with respect to the radiation and ecological conditions. Such situation resulted in development of chronic psychological stress in the majority of the population residing on the affected areas. The post-accidental stress, which appeared in many people, is characterized by its extraordinary stability. Up to 74% of the affected population were subjected to stress. In 1986 the depressing condition of anxiety was observed in 50% of those examined. By 1998 this number increased up to 76%. Aggravation of health condition still remains in the center of anxiety reasons for the majority of those examined, when in the areas contaminated greater the number of those anxious is much higher than in others. Besides, the urban population is more concerned in unsatisfactory solution of the problem of liquidation of the Chernobyl accident consequences, than village inhabitants (88,5 and 79,70/o accordingly). Noteworthy, that 43% of the urban population and only 25,20/6 of the village settlers is concerned in small efficiency of rehabilitation activities on the radioactive contaminated territories. Respondents-women 86,1%) are more anxious than men 84,2%). Besides, almost three quarters of the respondents 74,5%) for last three years became more anxious for their future and future of their children, which leads to greater worries. At the same time it is necessary to take into account, that 7 of the respondents expressed apathy and indifference to everything, and at 75% have the feeling of hopelessness. Another negative tendency exposed in the population, affected by the Chernobyl accident is the reduction of trust to the authorities and governmental bodies, reduction of satisfaction by the activity of local authorities. Only 60,6% of the interrogated

  5. Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

    2013-06-01

    Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

  6. Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

  7. Unavoidable Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Grady, Mark F.

    2009-01-01

    In negligence law, "unavoidable accident" is the risk that remains when an actor has used due care. The counterpart of unavoidable accident is "negligent harm." Negligence law makes parties immune for unavoidable accident even when they have used less than due care. Courts have developed a number of methods by which they "sort" accidents to unavoidable accident or to negligent harm, holding parties liable only for the latter. These sorting techniques are interesting in their own right and als...

  8. Identification of Risk Factors Influencing Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Touahmia

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents (RTAs are becoming a major problem around the world, incurring enormous losses of human and economic resources. Recent reports from the World Health Organization (WHO reveal that each year more than 1.25 million people are killed and 50 million are injured in road traffic accidents worldwide. In Saudi Arabia, statistics show that at least one traffic accident occurs every minute, causing up to 7,000 deaths and over 39,000 injuries annually. In this study, the main causes of RATs in the province of Hail are examined. The data was collected through the use of a survey which was developed to evaluate the effect of influencing parameters on RTA rate. The results show that 67% of RTAs result from human factors, 29% from road conditions and 4% from vehicle defects. Excessive speed and violation of traffic rules and regulations were found to be the main causes of RATs. Low rates of compliance with speed limit signs and seat-belt regulations were also observed. These findings highlight the need of strengthening effective traffic law enforcement alongside with improving traffic safety and raising public awareness.

  9. Radiological health risks from accidents during transportation of spent nuclear fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1988-01-01

    Potential radiological health risks from severe accident scenarios during the transportation of spent nuclear fuels are estimated. These extremely low probability, but potentially credible, scenarios are characterized by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Modal Study in terms of the maximum credible structural responses and/or the maximum credible cask temperature responses. In some accident scenarios, the spent nuclear fuel casks are assumed to be breached, resulting in the release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Models have been developed to estimate radiological health consequences, including potential short-term exposures and health effects to individuals and potential long-term environmental dose commitments and health effects to the population. The population risks are calculated using state-level data, and the resulting overall health risks are compared for several levels of cleanup effort to determine the relative effects on long-term risks to the population in the event of an accident. 4 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Cycling to work in Brazil: users profile, risk behaviors, and traffic accident occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacchieri, Giancarlo; Barros, Aluísio J D; Dos Santos, Janaína V; Gigante, Denise P

    2010-07-01

    In 2006, we carried out a cross-sectional study in the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, with the aim of outlining the profile of bicycle commuters, analyzing their use of safety equipment and risk behaviors and the association between these variables and involvement in traffic accidents in the previous 12 months. This study was based on the baseline survey carried out prior to an educational intervention aimed at reducing accidents among cyclists. The sample included 1133 male subjects aged 20 years or more, and who used a bicycle for commuting. Crude and adjusted analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. We recorded a total of 152 reported traffic accidents in the 12 months preceding the interview, involving 10.8% of subjects. Most risk behaviors studied and the use of safety equipment showed no significant association with accidents. Only commuting by bicycle seven days per week, as opposed to five or six, and a combination of extremely imprudent behaviors such as zigzagging through traffic, riding after ingesting alcohol, and high-speed riding were found to be risk factors for accidents. Our findings suggest that in the context where the study was done (poor road signaling, limited policing, aggressive driving) changing cyclist behavior may not have substantial impact in terms of accident reduction before other road traffic interventions are implemented. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Media coverage of Fukushima accident in the Russian press. Lessons for radiation emergency risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melikhova, E.; Arutyunyan, R.

    2014-01-01

    The paper reviews recent results of content analysis of the Russian press and data of all-Russia public opinion polls on the subject of the Fukushima accident and discusses them in the wider context of challenges in communication of 'no risk' messages to the public in the case of a nuclear accident. Radiation risk regulation base in the low dose range is proposed to be one of the main obstacles for the communication and a new approach to emergency risk communication is proposed. (author)

  12. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  13. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

    2015-01-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  14. Risk factors associated with visiting or not visiting the accident & emergency department after a fall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheffer, Alice C.; van Hensbroek, Pieter Boele; van Dijk, Nynke; Luitse, Jan S. K.; Goslings, Johannes C.; Luigies, René H.; de Rooij, Sophia E.

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about the prevalence of modifiable risk factors of falling in elderly persons with a fall-history who do not visit the Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department after one or more falls. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of modifiable risk factors in a

  15. Accident risks in nuclear facilities (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for 1964-Sep 77

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grooms, D.W.

    1977-10-01

    The bibliography presents risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents are also included

  16. Accident risks in nuclear facilities (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for 1964-Sep 76

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grooms, D.W.

    1976-10-01

    The bibliography presents risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents are included. (This updated bibliography contains 195 abstracts, 64 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  17. The use of Bayesian networks for nanoparticle risk forecasting: model formulation and baseline evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Money, Eric S; Reckhow, Kenneth H; Wiesner, Mark R

    2012-06-01

    We describe the use of Bayesian networks as a tool for nanomaterial risk forecasting and develop a baseline probabilistic model that incorporates nanoparticle specific characteristics and environmental parameters, along with elements of exposure potential, hazard, and risk related to nanomaterials. The baseline model, FINE (Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment), was developed using expert elicitation techniques. The Bayesian nature of FINE allows for updating as new data become available, a critical feature for forecasting risk in the context of nanomaterials. The specific case of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic environments is presented here (FINE(AgNP)). The results of this study show that Bayesian networks provide a robust method for formally incorporating expert judgments into a probabilistic measure of exposure and risk to nanoparticles, particularly when other knowledge bases may be lacking. The model is easily adapted and updated as additional experimental data and other information on nanoparticle behavior in the environment become available. The baseline model suggests that, within the bounds of uncertainty as currently quantified, nanosilver may pose the greatest potential risk as these particles accumulate in aquatic sediments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing in truck drivers : risk analysis of road accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catarino, Rosa; Spratley, Jorge; Catarino, Isabel; Lunet, Nuno; Pais-Clemente, Manuel

    2014-03-01

    Portugal has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in Europe. A clear association between sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and traffic accidents has been previously demonstrated. This study aimed to determine prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and other sleep disorder symptoms among truck drivers and to identify which individual traits and work habits are associated to increased sleepiness and accident risk. We evaluated a sample of 714 truck drivers using a questionnaire (244 face-to-face interviews, 470 self-administered) that included sociodemographic data, personal habits, previous accidents, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and the Berlin questionnaire (BQ). Twenty percent of drivers had EDS and 29 % were at high risk for having obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Two hundred sixty-one drivers (36.6 %) reported near-miss accidents (42.5 % sleep related) and 264 (37.0 %), a driving accident (16.3 % sleep related). ESS score ≥ 11 was a risk factor for both near-miss accidents (odds ratio (OR)=3.84, paccidents (OR=2.25, paccidents (OR=3.30, p=0.03). We found an association between high Mallampati score (III-IV) and near misses (OR=1.89, p=0.04). In this sample of Portuguese truck drivers, we observed a high prevalence of EDS and other sleep disorder symptoms. Accident risk was related to sleepiness and antidepressant use. Identifying drivers at risk for OSAS should be a major priority of medical assessment centers, as a public safety policy.

  19. Web-Based Real Time Earthquake Forecasting and Personal Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and

  20. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwan Hyung Yi

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of < 3 years and newly hired workers with a relatively shorter working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  1. Iodine nutrition and risk of thyroid irradiation from nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delange, F.

    1990-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are to discuss the following aspects of physiopathology of iodine nutrition related to thyroid irradiation by nuclear accidents: (1) The cycle of iodine in nature, the dietary sources of iodine and the recommended dietary allowances for iodine. (2) The anomalies of thyroid metabolism induced by iodine deficiency. The caricatural situation as seen in endemic goitre will be used as mode. (3) The specific paediatric aspects of adaptation to iodine deficiency. (4) The present status of iodine nutrition in Europe. (author)

  2. Risk management: Role of societal factors in major industrial accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hovden, J.; Rausand, M.; Sergeev, G.

    1995-01-01

    The paper discusses factors influencing the occurrence of major accidents in complex technological systems. Societal factors are identified as most significant in this context. Important types of societal factors are pin-pointed and discussed. The safety situation in the former Soviet Union and in today's Russian is described. The calamities at Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and partly also Bhopal are discussed, and the role of societal factors identified. A main point of view is that it is not surprising that these catastrophes happened in the then existing conditions. What is surprising is that they did not happen earlier exclamation point

  3. Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

    2018-06-01

    Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  5. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

  6. Comparison of accident risks in different energy systems: Comments from Russian specialists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Many articles on accident risk analysis of different energy systems in comparison with nuclear power share certain stereotypical features. For example: When assessing the risks associated with the operation of such facilities, they ignore the effects of the upgrading of RBMK reactors which was carried out after the Chernobyl accident. In their integrated assessment of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident they use numerous studies which frequently contain unreliable source data and unfounded predictions, and they ignore many socio-political factors which considerably increased the damage caused by the accident. Unfortunately, the study in question, despite its topicality and originality of approach, is also not without such shortcomings. After the Chernobyl accident, reconstruction and safety enhancement measures were implemented at nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors which were without precedent in world practice and have continued to this day. According to probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) carried out with the assistance of international experts, the probability of serious accidents at RBMKs has decreased by a factor of two or more thanks to the above mentioned measures. The mean weighted safety index for all operational RBMK reactors is 10 -4 l/year and is decreasing thanks to the ongoing and planned reconstruction of all units. All operational nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors are thus on a par with the successfully operating Soviet WWERs and western boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs), and satisfy the IAEA recommendations regarding the risk level of older generation nuclear power plants. The authors of the IAEA Bulletin article give estimates of the remote radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident which range from an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 fatal cases of radiation-induced cancer, and the literature on the subject contains even more extreme estimates. However, our 14 years

  7. Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgherr, Peter; Eckle, Petrissa; Hirschberg, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    This study compared severe accident risks of fossil energy chains (coal, oil and natural gas), based on the historical experience contained in the comprehensive database ENSAD. Considered risk indicators focused on human health impacts, i.e., fatality rates and maximum consequences were calculated for a broad range of country groups. Generally, expected fatality rates were lowest for natural gas, intermediate for oil and highest for coal. Concerning maximum consequences of a single accident, natural gas also performed best, followed by coal, whereas accidents in the oil chain can claim significantly more fatalities. In general, OECD and EU 27 ranked top, while non-OECD countries and China in the case of coal were worst. The consideration of numerous additional country groups enabled a more detailed differentiation within the main bounding groups. Furthermore, differences among country groups are distinctly decreasing from coal to oil and natural gas, both for fatality rates and maximum consequences. The use of import adjusted-fatality rates indicates that fatality risks in supply countries are an essential aspect to understand how specific risk reduction strategies may affect other components of energy security, and thus tradeoffs and compromises are necessary. Finally, the proposed fatality risk score for fossil chains (FRS F ) allows a comparison of the combined accident risk for the considered fossil energy chains across individual countries, which can be visualized using risk mapping.

  8. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

    2016-09-01

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  9. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  10. Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

  11. Reflection of risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogino, Haruyuki

    2012-01-01

    At the third symposium corresponding to the Fukushima accident held by the Japan Health Physics Society (JHPS) in December 2011, Youth Researcher's Association of JHPS presented 'risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima accident'. Focusing on the presentation, this article summarized social response of radiation risk in 9 months and activities of 'Q and A site that provides public with questions and answers related to radiation and daily life' by Society members as radiation protection experts after the Fukushima accident. The author raised some two problems related with (1) what and how should be 'judgments of best experts' reflecting the BSE case as 'trans-science' problem and (2) what's 'recommendation/standards document to be referred to' harmonizing with trend of international standards. Risk communication network should be not only between 'experts' and 'public' but also including international organizations. (T. Tanaka)

  12. Risk perception and occupational accidents: a study of gas station workers in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Silva, Mara Regina Santos da; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

    2012-07-01

    The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%), physical (88.2%), physiological (64.3%) and biological (62.4%). In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

  13. Risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arita, Aki; Sasanabe, Ryujiro; Hasegawa, Rika; Nomura, Atsuhiko; Hori, Reiko; Mano, Mamiko; Konishi, Noriyuki; Shiomi, Toshiaki

    2015-12-01

    We examined the risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). We asked licensed drivers with history of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness who had undergone polysomnography (PSG) at the Department of Sleep Medicine/Sleep Disorders Center at Aichi Medical University Hospital to complete the questionnaires on accidents caused by falling asleep while driving. As a subjective measure of sleepiness, we used the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Based on PSG results, 2387 subjects diagnosed with OSAS were divided into three groups according to apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): mild-to-moderate (5 ≤ AHI accidents in the past 5 years due to falling asleep. Our multivariate analysis suggests that scores on the ESS and patient-reported frequency of feeling drowsy while regular driving and working are related to automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving.

  14. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  15. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  16. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2015-01-01

    Global Real Time Control (RTC) of urban drainage system is increasingly seen as cost-effective solution in order to respond to increasing performance demand (e.g. reduction of Combined Sewer Overflow, protection of sensitive areas as bathing water etc.). The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast....... However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based...

  17. Light water reactor accidents - is there really a major public risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levenson, M [Bechtel Power Corp., San Francisco, CA (USA)

    1983-04-01

    During the past decade, a major mismatch has developed between the actual public risk from nuclear power and the public perception of that risk. Extensive analyses have been performed on the probability of accidents at nuclear power plants, but such analyses have used assumed consequences rather than those that have been scientifically derived. The assumed consequences have been overstated and needlessly scare the public or lead to unwarranted evacuations. The 40 years of experience in research, development and testing, and the history of actual accidents, provide a sound basis for assessment-a basis that has not been utilized.

  18. Risk assessment model for nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing; Tang Huaqing; Zhang Yinghua; Zhang Limin

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure,and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure. (authors)

  19. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  20. Cost analysis and financial risk profile for severe reactor accidents at Waterford-3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutbush, J.D.; Abbott, E.C.; Carpenter, W.L. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    To support Louisiana Power and Light Company (LP and L) in determining an appropriate level of nuclear property insurance for Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit 3 (Waterford-3), ABZ, Incorporated, performed a series of cost analyses and developed a financial risk profile. This five-month study, conducted in 1991, identified the potential Waterford-3 severe reactor accidents and described each from a cleanup perspective, estimated the cost and schedule to cleanup from each accident, developed a probability distribution of associated financial exposure, and developed a profile of financial risk as a function of insurance coverage

  1. Accident risks in nuclear facilities. (Latest citations from the NTIS Bibliographic database). Published Search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction, and operation of nuclear facilities. The citations also explore the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents and the use of computer models in risk analysis are also included. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  2. The potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohardehi, Shaban; Sharif, Mehdi; Sarvi, Shahabeddin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Hosseini, Seyed Abdollah; Amouei, Afsaneh; Pagheh, Abdolsattar; Sadeghi, Mitra; Daryani, Ahmad

    2018-06-12

    Toxoplasmosis is a prevalent infectious disease. Although most people infected by Toxoplasma gondii are asymptomatic, evidence has suggested that this disease might affect some aspects of a host's behavior and associate with schizophrenia, suicide attempt, changes in various aspects of personality, and poor neurocognitive performance. These associations may play roles in increasing the risk of a number of incidents, such as traffic accidents, among infected people. In this regard, this study aimed to provide summary estimates for the available data on the potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents. To this end, using a number of search terms, i.e. toxoplasmosis, Toxoplasma gondii, traffic accident, road accident, car accident, crash, and prevalence, literature searches (up to October 1, 2017) were carried out via 6 databases. The meta-analysis was conducted using the StatsDirect statistical software and a P-value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant in all statistical analyses. Out of 1841 identified studies, 9 studies were finally considered eligible for carrying out this systematic review. Reviewing results of these studies indicated that 5 out of 9 studies reported a significant relationship between Toxoplasma gondii and traffic accidents. Additionally, data related to gender showed significant differences between infected and control men and women. Considering age, reviewing the results of these studies revealed a significant difference between the infected people and the Toxoplasma-negative subjects under 45 years of age. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups aged 45 or older. Given these results, it can be concluded that Toxoplasma gondii significantly increases the risk of having traffic accidents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellamy, Linda J.; Damen, Martin; Jan Manuel, Henk; Aneziris, Olga N.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Oh, Joy I.H.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population. - Highlights: • Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given. • Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004. • Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors. • Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents. • Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks

  4. European banks in Ukraine: Modelling risks, rewards and making forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Kostyuk

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The new model for banking control and regulation, suggested by Basel III, together with high dividend expectations of shareholders have fostered the transformation of the business model in European banking. The scale of market shares no longer plays an important role in banking business. The emphasis is now laid on its efficiency. It is determined by ROE indicators, the positive dynamics of which serves as: a good indicator for ensuring a proper level of capital adequacy of the bank and reducing systemic risks; a precondition for meeting the dividend expectations of shareholders; evidence of effective management of capital assets and bank costs. Thus, assessing and preventing the outflow of foreign capital from the national banking sector, the national market regulators should clearly understand the motivation behind it and take into account the business strategies of parent European banks, which include the following points: low liquidity of the stock market of the Eurozone, which significantly complicates the process of capitalization of European banking institutions, and inability to attract capital in sufficient amounts; potential opportunity for capitalization of banks (to meet the requirements of Basel III in the context of bank management and shareholders relations (improvement of profit management policy and dividend policy; optimization of asset management policy in order to reduce RWA assets in the assets of both parent and subsidiary banks

  5. Forecasting Model of Risk of Cancer in Lung Cancer Pedigree in a Case-control Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan LIN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Annual lung screening using spiral computed tomography (CT, has a high sensitivity of detecting early lung cancer (LC, but its high rates of false-positive often lead to unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study is to create a forecasting model of high risk individuals to lung cancer. Methods The pathologic diagnoses of LC in Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute were consecutively chosen as the probands. All the members of the first-degree relatives of probands' and their spouses' were enrolled in this study. These pedigrees consisted of 633 probands' pedigrees and 565 spouses' pedigrees. Unless otherwise stated, analyses were performed using the SPSS 17.0 statistical software package. Results Compared with the control, a family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with LC risk (OR=1.71, P<0.001, the sub-group of either one infected individual or more than two infected individuals in first-degree relatives showed significantly statistical differences (P=0.005, P=0.002. In the forecasting model, the risk compared to that in Chinese population was from 0.38 to 63.08 folds. In the population whose risk was more than 10 times to the Chinese population, the accuracy rate of prediction was 88.1%. Conclusion A family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with increased LC risk. The more infected individuals exist in first-degree relatives, the more risk was showed. In the forecasting model, smokers especially heavy ones whose risk were more than 10 times to the Chinese population should be receive annual screening. The population are positive at least any two conditions which including male, lung disease history, occupation expose and history of cancer in first-degree relative.

  6. Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

    1992-11-01

    Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

  7. Thyroid cancer in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident: Incidence, prognosis of progress, risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.; Golovneva, A.; Demidchik, E.

    1997-01-01

    Starting from 1990, an increasing number of persons, suffering from thyroid cancer was diagnosed in Belarus. These persons were exposed to radiation in 1986 due to the Chernobyl Accident and were children and adolescents at the time of the accident. This paper gives an overview of the total number of thyroid cancer cases observed in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident among the persons exposed to radiation under 18 years of age. Duration of the latent period and background incidence rate are under discussion. Based on the most reliable data about thyroid doses and incidence rate among the persons exposed to radiation under 6 years of age, the estimation of risk coefficient for radiation induced thyroid cancer was carried out. For childhood exposure from I-131, the excess absolute risk per 10,0000 PYGy was 4.5 (author)

  8. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  9. Calculation of health risks from spent-nuclear-fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1987-01-01

    Models developed to analyze potential radiological health risks from various accident scenarios during transportation of spent nuclear fuels are described. The models are designed both for detailed route-specific risk analyses and for use in conducting overall risk analyses for route selection and related decision-making activities. The radiological risks calculated include individual dose commitments, collective dose commitments, and long-term (100-year) environmental dose commitments to a population following release of radioactivity. To facilitate route-specific analysis, a state-level database was developed and incorporated into the model. Route-specific analysis is demonstrated by the calculation of radiological risks resulting from various accident scenarios, as postulated by the recent US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Modal Study, for four representative states selected from various regions of the United States. 10 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Accident risk associated with smartphone addiction: A study on university students in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Jin; Min, Jin-Young; Kim, Hyun-Jin; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2017-12-01

    Background and aims The smartphone is one of the most popular devices, with the average smartphone usage at 162 min/day and the average length of phone usage at 15.79 hr/week. Although significant concerns have been made about the health effects of smartphone addiction, the relationship between smartphone addiction and accidents has rarely been studied. We examined the association between smartphone addiction and accidents among South Korean university students. Methods A total of 608 college students completed an online survey that included their experience of accidents (total number; traffic accidents; falls/slips; bumps/collisions; being trapped in the subway, impalement, cuts, and exit wounds; and burns or electric shocks), their use of smartphone, the type of smartphone content they most frequently used, and other variables of interests. Smartphone addiction was estimated using Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale, a standardized measure developed by the National Institution in Korea. Results Compared with normal users, participants who were addicted to smartphones were more likely to have experienced any accidents (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.26-2.86), falling from height/slipping (OR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.10-3.91), and bumps/collisions (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.16-2.87). The proportion of participants who used their smartphones mainly for entertainment was significantly high in both the accident (38.76%) and smartphone addiction (36.40%) groups. Discussion and conclusions We suggest that smartphone addiction was significantly associated with total accident, falling/slipping, and bumps/collisions. This finding highlighted the need for increased awareness of the risk of accidents with smartphone addiction.

  11. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  12. Increased risk of traffic accidents in subjects with latent toxoplasmosis: a retrospective case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malý Marek

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The parasite Toxoplasma gondii infects 30–60% of humans worldwide. Latent toxoplasmosis, i.e., the life-long presence of Toxoplasma cysts in neural and muscular tissues, leads to prolongation of reaction times in infected subjects. It is not known, however, whether the changes observed in the laboratory influence the performance of subjects in real-life situations. Methods The seroprevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in subjects involved in traffic accidents (N = 146 and in the general population living in the same area (N = 446 was compared by a Mantel-Haenszel test for age-stratified data. Correlation between relative risk of traffic accidents and level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre was evaluated with the Cochran-Armitage test for trends. Results A higher seroprevalence was found in the traffic accident set than in the general population (Chi2MH = 21.45, p 95= 1.76–4.01 times higher risk of an accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects. The OR significantly increased with level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre (p 95 = 1.14–3.03 for the 99 subjects with low antibody titres (8 and 16, higher (OR = 4.78, C.I.95 = 2.39–9.59 for the 37 subjects with moderate titres (32 and 64, and very high (OR = 16.03, C.I.95 = 1.89–135.66 for the 6 subjects with titres higher than 64. Conclusion The subjects with latent toxoplasmosis have significantly increased risk of traffic accidents than the noninfected subjects. Relative risk of traffic accidents decreases with the duration of infection. These results suggest that 'asymptomatic' acquired toxoplasmosis might in fact represent a serious and highly underestimated public health problem, as well as an economic problem.

  13. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slaper, H.; Eggink, G.J.; Blaauboer, R.O.

    1993-12-01

    This report is focussed on an integrated assessment of probabilistic cancer mortality risks due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants. For each of the European nuclear power plants the probability of accidental releases per year of operation is combined with the consequences in terms of the excess doses received over a lifetime (70 years). Risk estimates are restricted to cancer mortality and do not include immediate or short term deaths in the direct vicinity ( -8 per year in Western Europe. Going East the risks increase gradually to over 1000 x 10 -8 per year in regions of the former Soviet Union, where reactors of the Chernobyl type are located. The nuclear power plants in the East European countries dominate the estimated risk pattern and contribute at least 40-50% to the average risk in the West European countries. Improving the reactor safety in eastern European countries could lead to considerable reductions in estimated excess mortality risks. In western Europe the mortality risk might be reduced by a factor of two, and in eastern Europe by a factor of 100 to 1000. (orig.)

  14. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  15. Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident (26 april 1986)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galle, P.; Paulin, R.; Coursaget, J.

    2005-01-01

    Three world famous radio biologists have presented in june 2003 a communication entitled ' metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement'. This text is published at the tome 326, fsc. 8, page 699-715 at the 'Comptes Rendus de Biologie de l'Academie'. The digest is presented here. (N.C.)

  16. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo, E-mail: veronica.boemer@usp.b [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Pereira, Tatiana de Sousa, E-mail: araquino@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  17. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

  18. AN EFFECTIVE RISK-PREVENTIVE MODEL PROPOSAL FOR OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT SHIPYARDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozge Acuner

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to the statistics of occupational accidents, it is observed that the number of accidents occurred in shipbuilding industry is high and the rate of deaths and serious injuries among these accidents is higher than in other industries. However, the number of the studies to prevent these accidents in both industrial and scientific practices is considerably low. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an efficient risk preventive model in accordance with occupational health and safety regulations for industrial organizations. The approach proposed in this study differs from those described in the literature, because it is based on fuzzy set theory in order to cope with uncertainties on probability and severity definitions in terms of occupational health and safety. Furthermore, in this paper, risk severity is considered in terms of harm to worker, harm to environment, and harm to hardware, whereas in the literature, risk severity is generally considered solely in terms of only harm to worker. Then, risk magnitude is obtained by utilizing fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is applied to a shipyard located in the Marmara Region in order to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  19. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimate of the economy-wide financial risk associated with a serious nuclear reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1985-01-01

    Since the accident at Three Mile Island, considerable attention has focused on the financial risks associated with nuclear reactor accidents. Previous studies have calculated the plant-specific financial risk due to primarily off-site consequences, including most probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) beginning first with the Reactor Safety Study. Previous studies, however, have not studied the possible economy-wide costs of a severe reactor accident due to such considerations as adverse public opinion, enhanced concern in the financial community, and, particularly, regulatory constraints placed on the industry subsequent to an accident. These considerations could lead to a spectrum of scenarios, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria, which may have far reaching economy-wide effects. It is the purpose of this study to provide an estimate of these effects, and to compare these estimates with the plant-specific financial risks calculated earlier by others. First, a model is presented for including the impact of various regulatory response options on the nuclear industry, followed by a discussion of how the economy-wide costs associated with these options may be calculated. Then, results of series of calculations are presented, and finally, conclusions are given

  1. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Pereira, Tatiana de Sousa

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  2. Using the Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting the Risk of Bankruptcy of Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markov Mykhailo Ye.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at finding the optimal structure of artificial neural network to solve the problem of forecasting the bankruptcy of banks and researching the efficiency of use of the neural networks model for the realities of Ukrainian banking sphere. Results of the research testify that the best accuracy of forecasts for 1-1,5 years showed the model on the basis of the multilayer perceptron with 10 and 2 neurons in the hidden layers. The developed neural networks model can be used as an alternative to statistical methods, as it has shown better results. Prospect for further research in this direction is development of a complex system of support for decision-making for banking institutions, which would include forecasting risks for bank, analysis of the bank’s financial condition and identification of financial problems using innovation instruments and technologies, ensuring the monitoring and control of risks of banking institution. The developed neural networks model can become one of elements of the complex system.

  3. Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachmann D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within emergency response. However, the information provided for decision support is often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in current early warning and response systems. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. This paper presents the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the first results from two prototype applications of the new developed concept: The first prototype is applied to the Rotterdam area situated in the western part of the Netherlands. The second pilot study focusses on a rural area between the cities of Mantua and Ferrara along the Po river (Italy.

  4. Common Risk Target for severe accidents of nuclear power plants based on IAEA INES scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitázková, Jiřina; Cazzoli, Errico

    2013-01-01

    The IAEA has repeatedly recommended that the nuclear community should arrive at a common understanding and definition of safety goals for severe accidents in nuclear power plants. The recommendation has only found partial answers, despite the numerous working groups and forums devoted to this effort. The most widely accepted definition of goals is based on the concept of Large (Early) Release Frequencies (L(E)RF) and its derivatives, a surrogate concept derived from results of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) which was first introduced in the USA almost twenty years ago and much later accepted by the USNRC for risk informed decision making, but not for safety demonstrations. Other types of Safety Goals have been adopted by some nuclear authorities, but the main drawback of all current definitions is that they may apply only to LWRs. The lack of unifying safety/risk parameter throughout of PSAs worldwide is the basis of the present work, and an attempt is made to arrive at the definition of a Risk Target for severe accidents in NPPs, consistent with the IAEA definitions having a technical basis, which can be adopted without modifications for Generation IV power plants. The proposal of Common Risk Target in this work represents an attempt to define a Common Risk Target based on technical reasoning, reflecting IAEA definitions as well as harmonization requirements raised by the whole European Community in various OECD, ASAMPSA2 and SARNET (Guentay et al., 2006) conclusions and Council Directive of The European Union (Community Framework, 2009) as well as lastly performed stress tests of nuclear power plants throughout the Europe (Peer Review Report, 2012). The basic concept of CRT was first introduced and developed within the European project ASAMPSA2 by the authors of this article and was accepted by majority of world PSA experts participating in final evaluation and survey of the project (Guentay, 2011). In the proposed Risk Target concept an innovative

  5. Common Risk Target for severe accidents of nuclear power plants based on IAEA INES scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vitázková, Jiřina, E-mail: jirina@snus.sk [Vitázková-Vitty, Sládkovičova 24, 900 28 Ivanka pri Dunaji (Slovakia); Cazzoli, Errico, E-mail: erik.cazzoli@gmx.net [Cazzoli Consulting, Wiesenweg 14, CH-5415 Nussbaumen (Switzerland)

    2013-09-15

    The IAEA has repeatedly recommended that the nuclear community should arrive at a common understanding and definition of safety goals for severe accidents in nuclear power plants. The recommendation has only found partial answers, despite the numerous working groups and forums devoted to this effort. The most widely accepted definition of goals is based on the concept of Large (Early) Release Frequencies (L(E)RF) and its derivatives, a surrogate concept derived from results of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) which was first introduced in the USA almost twenty years ago and much later accepted by the USNRC for risk informed decision making, but not for safety demonstrations. Other types of Safety Goals have been adopted by some nuclear authorities, but the main drawback of all current definitions is that they may apply only to LWRs. The lack of unifying safety/risk parameter throughout of PSAs worldwide is the basis of the present work, and an attempt is made to arrive at the definition of a Risk Target for severe accidents in NPPs, consistent with the IAEA definitions having a technical basis, which can be adopted without modifications for Generation IV power plants. The proposal of Common Risk Target in this work represents an attempt to define a Common Risk Target based on technical reasoning, reflecting IAEA definitions as well as harmonization requirements raised by the whole European Community in various OECD, ASAMPSA2 and SARNET (Guentay et al., 2006) conclusions and Council Directive of The European Union (Community Framework, 2009) as well as lastly performed stress tests of nuclear power plants throughout the Europe (Peer Review Report, 2012). The basic concept of CRT was first introduced and developed within the European project ASAMPSA2 by the authors of this article and was accepted by majority of world PSA experts participating in final evaluation and survey of the project (Guentay, 2011). In the proposed Risk Target concept an innovative

  6. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  7. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  8. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  9. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Kwan Hyung; Lee, Seung Soo

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to identify high-risk groups for industrial accidents by setting up 2003 as the base year and conducting an in-depth analysis of the trends of major industrial accident indexes the index of industrial accident rate, the index of occupational injury rate, the index of occupational illness and disease rate per 10,000 people, and the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people for the past 10 years. This study selected industrial accident victims, who died or received more than 4 days of medical care benefits, due to occupational accidents and diseases occurring at workplaces, subject to the Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Act, as the study population. According to the trends of four major indexes by workplace characteristics, the whole industry has shown a decreasing tendency in all four major indexes since the base year (2003); as of 2012, the index of industrial accident rate was 67, while the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people was 59. The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  10. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  11. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  12. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  13. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and Decem...

  14. The risk of accident in nuclear power plants - Quotes and questions. National debate on energy transition. Taking the risk of nuclear accident into account. Note to the 'scenarios' subgroup of the group of experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laponche, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the production of electricity from nuclear energy and of its risks, the author discusses the issue of nuclear safety by distinguishing the different points of view, by describing the different levels between a severe and a major accident, and by recalling the statements made by the ASN and the IRSN on this issue. He describes the various reasons and consequences of accidents: types of accidents which could result in a core fusion, the containment failure as the major accident. He discusses the questions and comments about major issues like: strength of reactor vessels, hydrogen explosion, water vapour explosion, corium crossing the concrete sill plate, corium recovery, MOX as an aggravating situation for safety. In the last part, the author discusses the global assessment of a risk of a nuclear accident: probabilities and occurrences, significant accidents on PWRs, premonitory analysis, demonstration of nuclear safety

  15. Driving behaviors and accident risk under lifetime license revocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh; Tseng, Chien-Ming; Tseng, I-Yen

    2011-07-01

    This study explored the driving behaviors and crash risk of 768 drivers who were under administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR). It was found that most of the ALLR offenders (83.2%) were still driving and only a few (16.8%) of them gave up driving completely. Of the offenders still driving, 67.6% experienced encountering a police roadside check, but were not detained or ticketed by the police. Within this group, 50.6% continued driving while encountering a police check, 18.0% of them made an immediate U-turn and 9.5% of them parked and exited their car. As to crash risk, 15.2% of the ALLR offenders had at least one crash experience after the ALLR had been imposed. The results of the logistic regression models showed that the offenders' crash risk while under the ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (personal income), penalty status (incarceration, civil compensation and the time elapsed since license revocation), annual distance driven, and needs for driving (working, commuting and driving kids). Low-income offenders were more inclined to have a crash while driving under the ALLR. Offenders penalized by being incarcerated or by paying a high civil compensation drove more carefully and were less of a crash risk under the ALLR. The results also showed there were no differences in crash risk under the ALLR between hit-and-run offences and drunk driving offences or for offenders with a professional license or an ordinary license. Generally, ALLR offenders drove somewhat more carefully and were less of a crash risk (4.3 crashes per million km driven) than legal licensed drivers (23.1 crashes per million km driven). Moreover, they seemed to drive more carefully than drivers who were under short-term license suspension/revocation which previous studies have found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  17. Does Your Heart Forecast help practitioner understanding and confidence with cardiovascular disease risk communication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Sue; Kerr, Andrew; Broadbent, Elizabeth; MacKenzie, Craig; Cole, Karl; McLachlan, Andy

    2011-03-01

    Explaining what cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk means and engaging in shared decision-making regarding risk factor modification is challenging. An electronic CVD risk visualisation tool containing multiple risk communication strategies (Your Heart Forecast) was designed in 2009. To assess whether this tool facilitated explaining CVD risk to primary care patients. Health professionals who accessed a Primary Health Organisation website or who attended educational peer groups over a three-month period were invited to complete questionnaires before and after viewing a four-minute video about the tool. Respondents were asked to make an informed guess of the CVD risk of a 35-year-old patient (actual CVD risk 5%) and rate the following sentence as being true or false: 'If there were 100 people like Mr Andrews, five would go on to have a cardiac event in the next five years.' They also were asked to rank their understanding of CVD risk and confidence in explaining the concept to patients. Fifty health professionals (37 GPs, 12 practice nurses, one other) completed before and after questionnaires. Respondents' CVD risk estimates pre-video ranged from confidence in explaining risk reduced in range and shifted towards greater efficacy. Whether this tool facilitates discussions of CVD risk with patients and improves patient understanding and lifestyle behaviour needs to be evaluated in a randomised trial.

  18. Second-generation antipsychotics and risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Percudani, Mauro; Barbui, Corrado; Fortino, Ida; Tansella, Michele; Petrovich, Lorenzo

    2005-10-01

    Concern has been recently raised for risperidone and olanzapine, possibly associated with cerebrovascular events in placebo-controlled trials conducted in elderly subjects with dementia. We investigated the relationship between exposure to second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) and occurrence of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly. From the regional database of hospital admissions of Lombardy, Italy, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older with cerebrovascular-related outcomes for the year 2002. From the regional database of prescriptions reimbursed by the National Health Service, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older who received antipsychotic prescriptions during 2001. The 2 databases were linked anonymously using the individual patient code. The proportions of cerebrovascular accidents were 3.31% (95% confidence interval, 2.95-3.69) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to SGAs and 2.37% (95% confidence interval, 2.19-2.57) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to first-generation antipsychotics. After background group differences were controlled for, exposure to SGAs significantly increased the risk of accidents. The analysis of cerebrovascular events in elderly subjects exposed to each individual SGA, in comparison with exposure to haloperidol, showed a significantly increased risk for risperidone only (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.93). These data provide preliminary epidemiological evidence that exposure to SGAs, in comparison with exposure to first-generation antipsychotics, significantly increased the risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

  19. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC's Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs

  20. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  1. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  3. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  4. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, ptraffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, ptraffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  5. Accident management for severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.; Pratt, W.T.; Lehner, J.; Leonard, M.; Disalvo, R.; Sheron, B.

    1988-01-01

    The management of severe accidents in light water reactors is receiving much attention in several countries. The reduction of risk by measures and/or actions that would affect the behavior of a severe accident is discussed. The research program that is being conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission focuses on both in-vessel accident management and containment and release accident management. The key issues and approaches taken in this program are summarized. 6 refs

  6. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  7. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.

    1988-08-01

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  8. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

    2013-07-01

    The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

  9. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. © 2012 Paul Scherrer Institut.

  12. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    useful in emergency situations. The backtracking modelling feature and the possibility of importing spill locations from remote servers with observed data (per example, from flight surveillance or remote sensing) allow the potential application to the evaluation of possible contamination sources. The third tool developed is an innovative system to dynamically produce quantified risk levels in real time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools. This system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes (determined in EROCIPS project), real time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System (www.mohid.com). Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information, and metocean conditions, and results from these simulations are used in the quantification the consequences of potential spills. Dynamic Risk Tool was not designed to replace conventional mapping tools, but to complement that type of information with an innovative approach to risk mapping. Taking advantage of interoperability between forecasting models, oil spill simulations, AIS monitoring systems, statistical data and coastal vulnerability, this software can provide to end-users realtime risk levels, allowing an innovative approach to risk mapping, providing decision-makers with an improved decision support model and also an intelligent risk-based traffic monitoring. For instance, this tool allows the prioritisation of individual

  13. Towards a realistic estimation for the risk to the public derived from a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrillo, D; Diaz de la Cruz, F.

    1985-01-01

    The controversy arised during the last decade around civil uses of nuclear energy has been focalized, principally, in its questionability as energetic resource, basing on the safety aspects and consequently on the risk magnitude associated with a nuclear accident, from which could arise significative releases of radioactivity to the environment. The reactor safety studies developed in the last decade overestimated, in some orders of magnitude, the radiological consequences, and therefore the nuclear risk derived from the operation of such installations. In this moment, after the lessons learned from Three Mile Island accident and the studies and researches, starting afterwards, it is considered suitable to develop a comparison of the above mentioned risk which allows an approach between its real value and that one derived from social perception.

  14. Towards a realistic estimation for the risk to the public derived from a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, D.; Diaz de la Cruz, F.

    1985-01-01

    The controversy arised during the last decade around civil uses of nuclear energy has been focalized, principally, in its questionability as energetic resource, basing on the safety aspects and consequently on the risk magnitude associated with a nuclear accident, from which could arise significative releases of radioactivity to the environment. The reactor safety studies developed in the last decade overestimated, in some orders of magnitude, the radiological consequences, and therefore the nuclear risk derived from the operation of such installations. In this moment, after the lessons learned from Three Mile Island accident and the studies and researches, starting afterwards, it is considered suitable to develop a comparison of the above mentioned risk which allows an approach between its real value and that one derived from social perception. (author)

  15. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letícia Silveira Cardoso

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%, physical (88.2%, physiological (64.3% and biological (62.4%. In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05. It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

  16. [The Incidence and Risk Factors of the Home Accidents in the Househoulds with Low Socioeconomic Level in Kocaeli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pervin Sahiner

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available SUMMARY: AIM: This study aimed to determine the incidence of home accidents in the households with low socioeconomic level who preferred in single flat or duplex and the risk factor related to house and sociodemographic characteristics. METHOD: The prospective cohort study. The universe of the survey composed of 419 households (N=1539 persons both with single flat and duplex house located at the “42 Evler” region of Izmit district of the Kocaeli province. The questionaries included “The Sociodemographic Characteristics of the Households” and “The Characteristics and Reasons of the Home Accidents.” The data were collected with face to face tecniques by home visits of households between November 28, 2008 and April 2, 2009. After the first form were filled, each household was followed up three months for home accidents. RESULTS: Twenty-seven of the households and 13.6% of the participants had home accident. The incidence of the home accident also was 4.2 person per/year. Most of the accidents (89% occurred inside of the houses. The mostly observed home accidents were 39.1% burn, 28.6% incision and 12.8% falling respectively. It was important risk factors heater for burns, knife for incisions and slippery-floor for fallings. The incidence of the home accident was higher among women (22.0% (p0.05, and in those with not house ownership itself (for rent 34.5%, for relatives house 34.8% (p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: This study has showed that the incidence of home accidents are high, and the characteristics of house and some sociodemographic characteristics are important risk factors in term of the home accidents. The qualified primary health services which are financed by the government have great importance for the preventing of the household accidents, determination of the risk factors and recording the home accidents. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2011; 10(3.000: 257-268

  17. The accident at Gorleben: A case study of risk communication and risk amplification in the Federal Republic of Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, H P; Hennen, L [Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (USA). Center for Technology, Environment, and Development

    1988-07-01

    On May 12, 1987 an accident happened in the ``pilot mine`` at Gorleben in the Federal Republic of Germany where the feasibility of a repository or high-radioactive nuclear waste is currently being investigated. A miner was killed during that accident and two others were severely injured. Although this accident happened during conventional mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event received much public attention and news coverage and had a strong impact on the political debate on the Gorleben project of a repository mine for radioactive waste and even on the nuclear power controversy in general. This study does not aim to evaluate the accident that happened in the Gorleben pilot mine from a geological point of view nor does it aim to evaluate the West German waste disposal concept. All information given in chapter 2 on these aspects should be considered as background information, useful in understanding the subject of this case study: the risk communication concerning the Gorleben project in general and the accident in the shaft in particular.

  18. The accident at Gorleben: A case study of risk communication and risk amplification in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1988-07-01

    On May 12, 1987 an accident happened in the ''pilot mine'' at Gorleben in the Federal Republic of Germany where the feasibility of a repository or high-radioactive nuclear waste is currently being investigated. A miner was killed during that accident and two others were severely injured. Although this accident happened during conventional mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event received much public attention and news coverage and had a strong impact on the political debate on the Gorleben project of a repository mine for radioactive waste and even on the nuclear power controversy in general. This study does not aim to evaluate the accident that happened in the Gorleben pilot mine from a geological point of view nor does it aim to evaluate the West German waste disposal concept. All information given in chapter 2 on these aspects should be considered as background information, useful in understanding the subject of this case study: the risk communication concerning the Gorleben project in general and the accident in the shaft in particular

  19. A New Quantile Regression Model to forecast one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Steine, Sturla Aavik; Eliassen, Markus Thorsø

    2014-01-01

    This master thesis focuses on the problem of forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR) in the nancial markets. There are numerous methods for calculating VaR. However, research in this area has not currently reached one universally accepted method that can produce good VaR estimates across dierent data series, and VaR prediction and quality testing is still a very challenging statistical problem. The thesis has two main purposes, the rst is to propose a simple quantile regression mod...

  20. FACTORS RELATED TO MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENT RISK BEHAVIOR AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chumpawadee, Urai; Homchampa, Pissamai; Thongkrajai, Pramote; Suwanimitr, Amorn; Chadbunchachai, Witaya

    2015-07-01

    Young motorcycle drivers in Thailand are at high risk for road traffic accidents. We conducted this study to identify factors associated with motorcycle accident risk behavior (MARB). We studied 372 randomly selected university students aged 18-22 years (mean 20.2 years; women comprised 68.0% of our participants), who attend a government university in northeastern Thailand. Each student was asked to fill out a questionnaire asking about MARB and factors associated with this behavior. The respondents had an average of 6.2 years (SD+3.09) motorcycle driving experience, 72.3% had a motorcycle driver's license and 83.0% had accident insurance. The prevalence of self-reported motorcycle accident injuries was 42.7%. Their major MARB were using a telephone while driving (69.3%), speeding (45.4%), driving with more than one passenger (40.1%), drunk driving (22.1%), and not wearing a helmet (23.3%). Factors related to MARB were: gender, with men engaged in risky behavior more often than women (p motorcycle driving--drivers with > 5 years experience were more likely to engage in risky behavior (p < 0.05); and knowledge of safe driving, those with a greater knowledge of safe driving were more likely to drive safely (p < 0.001). Having a greater awareness of MARB was associated with lower risk of engaging in risky behavior (p < 0.001). Students who engaged in risky behavior were more likely to view it as normal behavior (p < 0.001) and less likely to have adequate self-control (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate a need to strengthen accident prevention programs for university students in northeastern Thailand.

  1. Patients' Risk of Causing Traffic Violations and Traffic Accidents while Driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šestan, Nevenka; Dodič Fikfak, Metoda; Balantič, Zvone

    2017-09-01

    This study examines whether drivers suffering from epilepsy, chronic alcoholism and/or hazardous drinking, psychoactive substance abuse, other diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioural disorders, cardiovascular diseases, severe diabetes, and severe eye diseases are at a greater risk of causing traffic accidents and traffic violations than drivers that cause accidents and violations without these diagnoses. A case control study was carried out. The cases were drivers checked by a special medical committee in the period observed suffering from the diseases listed above. Matched controls were taken from the cohort of those that caused accidents and violations during the same period observed. The descriptive statistics were followed by calculation of correlations, t-tests and χ 2 , and the odds ratio. Drivers with referrals for diseases of the nervous system are five times more likely to cause a traffic accident compared to controls (OR=5.18; 95% CI=2.59-10.34); in addition, a high risk is associated with drivers with mental and behavioural disorders (OR=3.64; 95% CI=1.91-6.94), drivers with epilepsy (OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.01-3.92), and drivers addicted to alcohol (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.01-2.89). Drivers suffering from addiction, a disease of the nervous system, or epilepsy are more likely to cause a traffic accident, which is a contribution to the inconclusive findings of previous studies. The multiple reasons for risks of patients suffering from mental and behavioural disorders need to be further investigated. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  2. Sleep apnea-related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. CPAP. The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65-80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). The MVA risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with OSA suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  3. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  4. The communication of radiological risk to populations exposed to a radiological accident: considerations concerning the accident in Goiania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curado, M.P.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to describe the reactions of a population subjected to the effects of a radiological accident and receiving information about radiation effects for the first time. The behaviour of the victims during various phases of the accident is discussed. (author)

  5. Risk of Occupational Accidents in Workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbarino, Sergio; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Sanna, Antonio; Mancardi, Gian Luigi; Magnavita, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the single most important preventable medical cause of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and driving accidents. OSA may also adversely affect work performance through a decrease in productivity, and an increase in the injury rate. Nevertheless, no systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between OSA and work accidents has been performed thus far. Methods: PubMed, PsycInfo, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched. Out of an initial list of 1,099 papers, 10 studies (12,553 participants) were eligible for our review, and 7 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The overall effects were measured by odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). An assessment was made of the methodological quality of the studies. Moderator analysis and funnel plot analysis were used to explore the sources of between-study heterogeneity. Results: Compared to controls, the odds of work accident was found to be nearly double in workers with OSA (OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.53–3.10). Occupational driving was associated with a higher effect size. Conclusions: OSA is an underdiagnosed nonoccupational disease that has a strong adverse effect on work accidents. The nearly twofold increased odds of work accidents in subjects with OSA calls for workplace screening in selected safety-sensitive occupations. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1171. Citation: Garbarino S, Guglielmi O, Sanna A, Mancardi GL, Magnavita N. Risk of occupational accidents in workers with obstructive sleep apnea: systematic review and meta-analysis. SLEEP 2016;39(6):1211–1218. PMID:26951401

  6. Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galle, P.; Paulin, R.; Coursaget, J.

    2003-01-01

    Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement. The authors indicate the origin of the data used by the French Public Health Authority in 1986 to estimate the risk of the radioactive fall out following the Chernobyl accident. The technical means developed in order to establish this data, and the precedent experience gained, are described. The principal results are given. The terms of the 28 May 1986 note to the Academy of Sciences by R. Latarjet, which concluded that the low level of this fallout did not justify any countermeasure, except the control of the imported food, are confirmed. Rational dispositions are required in order to improve the information of the population, referring to the Swedish model, which involves the intervention of the medical staff specialized in radio-toxicology, radio-pathology, nuclear medicine, and especially trained. To cite this article: P. Galle et al., C. R. Biologies 326 (2003). (authors)

  7. Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kula, K.R.; Taylor, R.P. Jr.; Ashbaugh, S.G.

    1995-01-01

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

  8. Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

    1997-01-01

    The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

  9. Licensing topical report: application of probabilistic risk assessment in the selection of design basis accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.

    1980-06-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is proposed to be used to scrutinize selection of accident sequences. A technique is described in this Licensing Topical Report to identify candidates for Design Basis Accidents (DBAs) utilizing the risk assessment results. As a part of this technique, it is proposed that events with frequencies below a specified limit would not be candidates. The use of the methodology described is supplementary to the traditional, deterministic approach and may result, in some cases, in the selection of multiple failure sequences as DBAs; it may also provide a basis for not considering some traditionally postulated events as being DBAs. A process is then described for selecting a list of DBAs based on the candidates from PRA as supplementary to knowledge and judgments from past licensing practice. These DBAs would be the events considered in Chapter 15 of Safety Analysis Reports of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

  10. NPP physical protection and information security as necessary conditions for reducing nuclear and radiation accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pogosov, O.Yu.; Derevyanko, O.V.

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on the fact that nuclear failures and incidents can lead to radioactive contamination of NPP premises. Nuclear and radiation hazard may be caused by malefactors in technological processes when applying computers or inadequate control in case of insufficient level of information security.The researchers performed analysis of factors for reducing risks of nuclear and radiation accidents at NPPs considering specific conditions related to information security of NPP physical protection systems. The paper considers connection of heterogeneous factors that may increase the risk of NPP accidents, possibilities and ways to improve adequate modelling of security of information with limited access directly related to the functioning of automated set of engineering and technical means for NPP physical protection. Within the overall Hutchinson formalization, it is proposed to include additional functional dependencies on indicators specific for NPPs into analysis algorithms.

  11. Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugato, Marco; Calderoni, Francesco; Berlusconi, Giulia

    2017-06-01

    Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

  12. Quantifying the social costs of nuclear energy: Perceived risk of accident at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huhtala, Anni; Remes, Piia

    2017-01-01

    The preferences expressed in voting on nuclear reactor licenses and the risk perceptions of citizens provide insights into social costs of nuclear power and decision making in energy policy. We show analytically that these costs consist of disutility caused by unnecessary anxiety - due to misperceived risks relating to existing reactors - and where licenses for new nuclear reactors are not granted, delayed or totally lost energy production. Empirical evidence is derived from Finnish surveys eliciting explicitly the importance of risk perceptions on preferences regarding nuclear power and its environmental and economic impacts. We show that the estimated marginal impact of a high perceived risk of nuclear accident is statistically significant and that such a perception considerably decreases the probability of a person supporting nuclear power. This result holds across a number of robustness checks including an instrumental variable estimation and a model validation by observed voting behavior of the members of Parliament. The public's risk perceptions translate into a significant social cost, and are likely to affect the revenues, costs and financing conditions in the nuclear power sector in the future. - Highlights: • Survey on preferences regarding nuclear power and its environmental and economic impacts utilized. • A high perceived risk of nuclear accident decreases support for nuclear power. • The public's risk perceptions translate into a significant social cost.

  13. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  14. Assessment of risks of accidents and normal operation at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savolainen, Ilkka; Vuori, Seppo.

    1977-01-01

    A probabilistic assessment model for the analysis of risks involved in the operation of nuclear power plants is described. With the computer code ARANO it is possible to estimate the health and economic consequences of reactor accidents both in probabilistic and deterministic sense. In addition the code is applicable to the calculation of individual and collective doses caused by the releases during normal operation. The estimation of release probabilities and magnitudes is not included in the model. (author)

  15. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  16. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  18. A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

    1978-01-01

    Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

  19. Annual meeting on nuclear technology 1982. Technical meeting: Possibilities and effects of serious reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    A critical examination of the forecast of a design basis accident, the view of the Sandia National Laboratory on the probability of a steam explosion after a core meltdown accident is comparison with WASH-1400, the possibilities of interactions with the containment structure and fission product release, as well as the influences for the assessment of risk in Germany taken from the analysis of core meltdown accidents are dealt with in these papers. (DG) [de

  20. Risk management and role of schools of the Tokai-village radiation accident in 1999. Safety education and risk management before and during the radiation accident from the standpoint of school nurse teachers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akisaka, Masafumi; Nakamura, Tomoko; Satake, Tsuyoshi

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate safety education and risk management in the neighborhood schools before and during the radiation accident in the Tokai-village in 1999 from the standpoint of school nurse teachers. Eighty-six school nurse teachers from 44 elementary, 25 junior-high, 14 high and 3 handicapped children's schools were surveyed within neighboring towns and villages. The main results were as follows: There had been few risk management systems against the potential radiation accidents including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection in all of the neighboring schools. There were no significant difference in risk management systems among the schools before the accident, though the anxiety rates of school children were significantly higher in the schools nearest to the accident site. Some radiation risk management systems must be established in neighboring schools including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection. (author)

  1. Posture control and the risk of industrial accident: a stabilographic investigation in a naval shipyard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll van Charante, A W; Snijders, C J; Mulder, P G

    1991-10-01

    In a previous case-control study on the effect of impaired perceptual acuity on the risk of industrial injuries at a naval shipyard, three factors which might influence the perception and processing of sensory impressions--alcohol consumption, hearing loss exceeding 20 decibels (dB) and exposure to noise exceeding 82 dB(A)--were found to contribute to the risk of injury. According to recent reports, these factors can all lead to impaired posture control. Because in general about 40% of all accidents are associated with falling, tripping, slipping and the like, a supplementary study has been carried out to unravel possible confounding effects of posture control on these three risk factors. Cases (who had suffered two or more accidents during the preceding 4 years) and controls (who had been accident-free in the same period) were compared as regards posture control measured during silence or noise. No significant difference in posture control was found between cases and controls, either in silence or during exposure to heavy noise.

  2. Risk of in-itinere accident in primary health care professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica A. Cruz-Toscano

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background Traffic accidents represent a priority for public health since they are responsible for high mortality tolls, elevated economic costs and a significant social impact. Ecuador ranks as the seventh country in the World with a higher mortality rate. Aims To know the risk level of in-itinere accidents for workers of a primary care facility. Methods Descriptive transversal study through the application of a basic survey from 136 sanitary and non-sanitary professionals. Results The means to commute used by workers corresponds to public transportation (57.4 per cent and automobile (26.5 per cent, being the time invested in traveling to work is greater than 30 minutes. A statistical significant relationship can be observed between the transportation mean used to commute to the medical center and the time invested with the ending score of the risk to suffer a TA (p<0.05 for workers. Conclusion A necessity to establish road safety programs rises to control such risk factors that influence the possibility to suffer a commuting accident for the sanitary personnel.

  3. Assessment of radiation risks as a result of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, V.K.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the Government of the former USSR had made decision on establishing common registry of exposed persons in several months after the Chernobyl accident. The registry had served in Medical Radiological Research Centre of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Obninsk City till 1992 (the time of dissolution of the USSR). Individual medical and dosimetric information on 659292 persons, including 284907 emergency accident workers (liquidators) had been collected for the period between 1986 and 1991. As of 01.01.1998, National Chernobyl Registry of the Russian Federation has kept individual data on 508236 persons including 167726 liquidators. As it is known, long-term epidemiological study of Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors resulted in statistically significant assessments of radiation risks for induction of cancer at the dose level above 0.5 Gy. Radiation doses after the Chernobyl accident do not exceed 0.3-0.5 Gy. That is why assessment of radiation risks at low radiation doses is a problem of great importance. As a result of the epidemiological studies performed on the basis of the Russian Chernobyl registry we pioneered the assessment of statistically significant radiation risks for induction of cancer at low radiation dose. (author)

  4. Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Li, X.; Turner, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations The need for highly improved space weather modeling and monitoring is quickly becoming imperative as our society depends ever more on the sensitive technology that builds and connects our world. Instead of relying primarily on tried and true concepts, academic institutions and funding agencies alike should be focusing on truly new and innovative ways to solve this pressing problem. In this exciting time, where student-led groups can launch CubeSats for under a million dollars and companies like SpaceX are actively reducing the cost-cap of access to space, the space physics community should be pushing the boundaries of what is possible to enhance our understanding of the space environment. Taking great risks in instrumentation, mission concepts, operational development, collaborations, and scientific research is the best way to move our field forward to where it needs to be for the betterment of science and society.

  5. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  6. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  7. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.; Nelson, R.C.; Bollinger, L.; Hoover, M.D.; Templeton, W.; Anspaugh, L.

    1991-01-01

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher

  8. Risk Communication Strategies: Lessons Learned from Previous Disasters with a Focus on the Fukushima Radiation Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svendsen, Erik R; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Tsuda, Toshihide; Guimaraes, Jean Remy Davee; Tondel, Martin

    2016-12-01

    It has been difficult to both mitigate the health consequences and effectively provide health risk information to the public affected by the Fukushima radiological disaster. Often, there are contrasting public health ethics within these activities which complicate risk communication. Although no risk communication strategy is perfect in such disasters, the ethical principles of risk communication provide good practical guidance. These discussions will be made in the context of similar lessons learned after radiation exposures in Goiania, Brazil, in 1987; the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, Ukraine, in 1986; and the attack at the World Trade Center, New York, USA, in 2001. Neither of the two strategies is perfect nor fatally flawed. Yet, this discussion and lessons from prior events should assist decision makers with navigating difficult risk communication strategies in similar environmental health disasters.

  9. Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.

    2004-01-01

    Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are

  10. An Approach to Description of Accident Causation and Identification of Preconditions for Effective Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens; Svedung, Inge

    "safety control" must be established from a control theory point of view? The report discusses these issues on the basis of the present rapid evolution of new cognitive approaches to the study of decision making in action and dynamic, learning organizations, and the rapid change of modern information......The ultimate objectives of the present study is to better understand the mechanisms of major accidents in the present dynamic and technological society. From this understanding, guides to improved strategies for industrial risk management is sought. In this approach, risk management is considered...

  11. Estimation of stochastic effects risk in children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jova S, L.; Garcia L, O.; Valdes R, M.

    1996-01-01

    Radiation risk estimation of stochastic effect was evaluated in a group of children assisted in the Cuba Republic as part of the program for medical attention with children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident . Doses, received from different sources, were estimated for risk evaluation. The study shows total detrimental effects between 0,02 - 0,01% for different groups; values lower than expected for developed country (17-20%). Fatal thyroid cancer increased up to 0,07% in one of the studied groups. (authors). 8 refs., 4 tabs

  12. In pursuit of zero risk for LMR [liquid metal reactor] accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waltar, A.E.; Armstrong, G.R.; Martin, F.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.

    1986-01-01

    LMR programs are moving towards facility designs that are inherently safe. This movement is resulting in extremely low probabilities for entering the regime of severe accidents. When these probabilities are added to the respective consequences, the resulting risk is also seen to be moving toward lower and lower values. The preliminary risk estimates being achieved by the US LMR Advanced Concepts Programs are well within US NRC guidelines and to some may be seen as approaching zero. This paper presents some aspects and results of the work being performed that supports this trend

  13. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuhlen, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  14. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  15. A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

  16. Case studies on the use of the 'risk matrix' approach for accident prevention in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo, Cruz; Vilaragut, Juan J.; Soler, Karen; Cruz, Yoanis; Batista, Fidel; Morales, Jorge L.; Perez, Adrian; Farlane, Teresa Mc.; Guerrero, Mayrka

    2010-01-01

    External beam radiotherapy is the only practice during which humans are directly exposed to a radiation beam to receive high doses. Accidental exposures have occurred throughout the world, thus showing the need for systematic safety assessments, capable to identify preventive measures and to minimize consequences of accidental exposure. The 'risk matrix' approach is a semi quantitative method to evaluate the likelihood and the severity of events by means of a scale, and defines acceptability criteria on the basis of the risk. For each accident sequence identified, the following questions come up: how often is it?, how severe are the consequences? and, what safety measures should be taken to prevent it?. From these answers we can obtain the resulting risk by using the 'Risk Matrix' table. In this study we have used this method to conduct the study in 3 cases (real radiotherapy departments). The case study identified the major weaknesses in radiotherapy service and proposed measures to reduce the risk of accidents. The method is practical and it could be applied in hospitals. This approach allows regulators to improve the quality of their inspections and the rigor of the assessments made to grant the operating license to the entities working with radiotherapy. (author)

  17. Nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  18. Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

    1987-01-01

    The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

  19. MRI-related magnetic field exposures and risk of commuting accidents - A cross-sectional survey among Dutch imaging technicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, Anke; Schaap, Kristel; Kromhout, Hans

    2017-07-01

    Imaging technicians working with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may experience acute effects such as vertigo or dizziness when being exposed. A previous study also reported an increased risk of accidents in MRI exposed staff. We aimed at evaluating commuting accident risk in Dutch imaging technicians. Of invited imaging technicians, 490 (29%) filled in a questionnaire pertaining to (near) accidents when driving or riding a bike, health, lifestyle and work practices. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between exposure to MRI-related electromagnetic fields and risk of commuting (near) accidents in the year prior to the survey, adjusted for a range of potential confounders. Our cross-sectional study indicated an increased risk of (near) accidents if imaging technicians had worked with MRI in the year prior to the survey (odds ratio OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.23-3.69). Risks were higher in persons who worked with MRI more often (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.25-4.31) compared to persons who worked sometimes with MRI (OR 1.91, 95%CI 0.98-3.72), and higher in those who had likely experienced higher peak exposures to static and time-varying magnetic fields (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.06-4.48). The effect was seen on commuting accidents that had occurred on the commute from home to work as well as accidents from work to home or elsewhere. Imaging technicians working with MRI scanners may be at an increased risk of commuting (near) accidents. This result needs confirmation and potential risks for other groups (volunteers, patients) should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vineet Kumar; Davidson, Rachel Ann

    2007-02-01

    Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.

  1. Radiological accidents potentially important to human health risk in the U.S. Department of Energy waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Folga, S.; Nabelssi, B.; Jackson, R.

    1995-01-01

    Human health risks as a consequence of potential radiological releases resulting from plausible accident scenarios constitute an important consideration in the US Department of Energy (DOE) national program to manage the treatment, storage, and disposal of wastes. As part of this program, the Office of Environmental Management (EM) is currently preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) that evaluates the risks that could result from managing five different waste types. This paper (1) briefly reviews the overall approach used to assess process and facility accidents for the EM PEIS; (2) summarizes the key inventory, storage, and treatment characteristics of the various DOE waste types important to the selection of accidents; (3) discusses in detail the key assumptions in modeling risk-dominant accidents; and (4) relates comparative source term results and sensitivities

  2. Forecasting Innovation Risks of Machine-Building Enterprises with the Use of Fuzzy Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fedorenko Irina A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to solve an actual problem of assessing and forecasting the risks of innovation activity of an enterprise under uncertainty. Numerous studies dedicated to this problem suggest various qualitative and quantitative methods, however, most papers present no results of their practical application, which calls the usefulness of their use into question. With the help of the scientific and methodological approach based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the model of predicting the expected risk using fuzzy triangular numbers is proposed. All possible cases of interaction of the expected value of the studied indicator and the indicator characterizing its boundary conditions are investigated. With the help of the received formulas, the total risk of investing in an innovation project is determined depending on the boundary conditions. The index of profitability of investments is chosen as the indicator to be studied. The model allows potential investors and developers to select the optimal values of the project parameters provided that the risk is minimized.

  3. A RESEARCH ON ACCIDENTS RISKS AND CAUSES IN THE NEONATAL INTENSIVE CARE UNITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haluk Tanrıverdi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to demonstrate the relationship between the qualifications of neonatal intensive care units of hospitals (physical conditions, standard applications, employee qualifications and use of personal protective equipment and work related causes and risks, employee related causes and risks when occupational accidents occur. Accordingly, a survey was prepared and was made among 105 nurses working in 3 public and 3 private hospital's neonatal intensive care units, in the January of 2010. The survey consists of questions about the qualifications of neonatal intensive care units, work related causes and risks, and employee related causes and risks. From the regression analysis conducted, it has been found that confirmed hypotheses in several studies in the literature were not significant in this study. The sub-dimensions in which relationships has been found show that the improvement of the physical environment in workplace, the improvement of the employee qualifications and standard applications can reduce the rate of occupational accidents. According to the results of this study management should take care of the organizational factors besides to improvement of the physical environment in workplace, the improvement of the employee qualifications and standard applications.

  4. A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

  5. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix I. Accident definition and use of event trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning accident definition and use of event trees, event tree methodology, potential accidents covered by the reactor safety study, analysis of potential accidents involving the reactor core, and analysis of potential accidents not involving the core

  6. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Niiat, Khosro Sadegh

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness) among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran) participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013-2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR) = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-4.77), smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15-3.97), and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21). The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07-23.83) were the best predictors for odds (increased risk) of road accidents. A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea - OSA). Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian occupational drivers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under

  7. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the

  8. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  9. Does debt ceiling and government shutdown help in forecasting the us equity risk premium?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aye Goodness C.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article evaluates the predictability of the equity risk premium in the United States by comparing the individual and complementary predictive power of macroeconomic variables and technical indicators using a comprehensive set of 16 economic and 14 technical predictors over a monthly out-ofsample period of 1995:01 to 2012:12 and an in-sample period of 1986:01- 1994:12. In order to do so we consider, in addition to the set of variables used in Christopher J. Neely et al. (2013 and using a more recent dataset, the forecasting ability of two other important variables namely government shutdown and debt ceiling. Our results show that one of the newly added variables namely government shutdown provides statistically significant out-of-sample predictive power over the equity risk premium relative to the historical average. Most of the variables, including government shutdown, also show significant economic gains for a risk averse investor especially during recessions.

  10. Radiation Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in the Cohort of Russian Emergency Workers of the Chernobyl Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Karpenko, S V; Maksioutov, M A; Menyaylo, A N; Tumanov, K A; Kochergina, E V; Kashcheeva, P V; Gorsky, A I; Shchukina, N V; Lovachev, S S; Vlasov, O K; Ivanov, V K

    2017-07-01

    This paper continues a series of publications that analyze the impact of radiation on incidence of circulatory system diseases in the cohort of Russian recovery operation workers (liquidators) and presents the results of the analysis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The studied cohort consists of 53,772 liquidators who arrived in the Chernobyl accident zone within the first year after the accident (26 April 1986 to 26 April 1987). The individual doses varied from 0.0001 Gy to 1.42 Gy, and the mean external whole body dose in the cohort was 0.161 Gy. A total of 27,456 cases of CVD were diagnosed during the follow-up period 1986-2012 as a result of annual health examinations. A Poisson regression model was applied to estimate radiation risks and other risk factors associated with CVD. The following factors were identified as risk factors for CVD: the dose, duration of the liquidators' work in the Chernobyl zone, and concomitant diseases (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, overweight, and alcohol dependence). The baseline incidence of CVD is statistically significantly (p Chernobyl zone; for those who stayed in the Chernobyl zone less than 6 wk, ERR/Gy = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.53; 1.08, p < 0.001.

  11. Thyroid neoplasia risk is increased nearly 30 years after the Chernobyl accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tronko, Mykola; Brenner, Alina V; Bogdanova, Tetiana; Shpak, Victor; Oliynyk, Valeriy; Cahoon, Elizabeth K; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Little, Mark P; Tereshchenko, Valeriy; Zamotayeva, Galyna; Terekhova, Galyna; Zurnadzhi, Lyudmila; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    2017-10-15

    To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk. © 2017 UICC.

  12. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K. [Risk Communication Study Office, Japan Atomic Energy Agency 4-33 Muramatsu, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki, 319-1194 (Japan)

    2013-07-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.

  13. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K.

    2013-01-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety

  14. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.

    1995-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  15. Information and communication technologies, a tool for risk prevention and accident management on sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Lépy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice melting topic is a repetitive phenomenon in alarmist speeches on climate change. The present positive evolution of air temperatures has in all probability many impacts on the environment and more or less directly on societies. Face to the temperature elevation, the ice pack is undergone to an important temporal variability of ice growth and melting. Human populations can be exposed to meteorological and ice hazards engendering a societal risk. The purpose of this paper is to better understand how ICT get integrated into the risk question through the example of the Bay of Bothnia in the northern extremity of the Baltic Sea. The study deals with the way that Finnish society, advanced in the ICT field, faces to new technology use in risk prevention and accident management on sea ice.

  16. Analysis of risk reduction methods for interfacing system LOCAs [loss-of-coolant accidents] at PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoki, G.; Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1988-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) predicted that Interfacing System Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (ISL) events were significant contributors to risk even though they were calculated to be relatively low frequency events. However, there are substantial uncertainties involved in determining the probability and consequences of the ISL sequences. For example, the assumed valve failure modes, common cause contributions and the location of the break/leak are all uncertain and can significantly influence the predicted risk from ISL events. In order to provide more realistic estimates for the core damage frequencies (CDFs) and a reduction in the magnitude of the uncertainties, a reexamination of ISL scenarios at PWRs has been performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The objective of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of pressurized water reactor designs to ISLs and identify any improvements that could significantly reduce the frequency/risk of these events

  17. Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: international evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Degiannakis, Stavros; Floros, Christos; Dent, P.

    2013-01-01

    The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering the period from 1989 to 2009. The research addresses the question of whether or not accounting for long memory in the conditional variance specification improves the accuracy of the VaR and ES forecasts ...

  18. APRI-7 Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. A progress report on research in the field of severe accidents in 2009-2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garis, Ninos; Agrell, Maria; Glaenneskog, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of the phenomena that may occur during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant is an important prerequisite for being able to predict the plant behavior, in order to formulate procedures and instructions for incident handling, for contingency planning, and to get good quality at the accident analysis and risk studies. Since the early 80's nuclear power companies and authorities in Sweden has collaborated in research on severe reactor accidents. Cooperation in the beginning was mostly linked to strengthening the protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, in particular to develop systems for filtered depressurization of the reactor containment. Since the early 90's the cooperation has partially changed and shifted to the phenomenological questions of risk dominance. During the years 2009-2011, cooperation continued in the research-program APRI-7. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for accident management provides reasonable protection for the environment. This was done by gaining detailed knowledge of both important phenomena in the hearth melting behavior, and the amount of radioactivity that can be discharged to the surroundings during a severe accident. To achieve this aim, the research program has included a follow-up of international research in severe accidents and evaluation of results, and continued to support research at KTH and Chalmers Univ. of severe accidents. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has provided access to a wealth of information about various phenomena relevant to the events at severe accidents. This was important to obtain a good basis for assessment of abatement measures in the Swedish nuclear reactors. Continuing support to the Royal Inst. of Technology has provided increased knowledge about the ability to cool the molten core of the reactor vessel and the processes associated with cooling the

  19. Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

  20. Fatal connections--socioeconomic determinants of road accident risk and drunk driving in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Niclas A

    2013-09-01

    In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact. This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving. Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor. The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk Analysis and Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wik, Magnus; Pirjola, Risto; Viljanen, Ari; Lundstedt, Henrik

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), occurring during magnetic storms, pose a widespread natural disaster risk to the reliable operation of electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables and railway systems. The solar magnetic activity is the cause of GIC. Solar coronal holes can cause recurrent inter-vals of raised geomagnetic activity, and coronal mass ejections (CME) at the Sun, sometimes producing very high speed plasma clouds with enhanced magnetic fields and particle densities, can cause the strongest geomagnetic storms. When the solar wind interacts with the geomag-netic field, energy is transferred to the magnetosphere, driving strong currents in the ionosphere. When these currents change in time a geoelectric field is induced at the surface of the Earth and in the ground. Finally, this field drives GIC in the ground and in any technological conductor systems. The worst consequence of a severe magnetic storm within a power grid is a complete blackout, as happened in the province of Québec, Canada, in March 1989, and in the city of Malmü, Sweden, in October 2003. Gas and oil pipelines are not regarded as vulnerable to the immediate impact of GIC, but the corrosion rate of buried steel pipes can increase due to GIC, which may thus shorten the lifetime of a pipe. European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) is an EU project, that, if approved, will produce the first European-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GIC in power systems, based on in-situ solar wind observations and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere. This project focuses on high-voltage power transmission networks, which are probably currently the most susceptible to GIC effects. Geomagnetic storms cover large geographical regions, at times the whole globe. Consequently, power networks are rightly described as being European critical infrastructures whose disruption or destruction could have a significant impact

  2. Volatility forecasting and value-at-risk estimation in emerging markets: the case of the stock market index portfolio in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modelling of volatility is important as it relates to the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR. The RiskMetrics model to forecast volatility is the benchmark in the financial sector. In an important regulatory innovation, the Basel Committee has proposed the use of an internal method for modelling VaR instead of the strict use of the benchmark model. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of RiskMetrics in comparison to other models of volatility forecasting, such as some family classes of the Generalised Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models, in forecasting the VaR in emerging markets. This paper makes use of the stock market index portfolio, the All-Share Index, as a case study to evaluate the market risk in emerging markets. The paper underlines the importance of asymmetric behaviour for VaR forecasting in emerging markets’ economies.

  3. Normal accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perrow, C.

    1989-01-01

    The author has chosen numerous concrete examples to illustrate the hazardousness inherent in high-risk technologies. Starting with the TMI reactor accident in 1979, he shows that it is not only the nuclear energy sector that bears the risk of 'normal accidents', but also quite a number of other technologies and industrial sectors, or research fields. The author refers to the petrochemical industry, shipping, air traffic, large dams, mining activities, and genetic engineering, showing that due to the complexity of the systems and their manifold, rapidly interacting processes, accidents happen that cannot be thoroughly calculated, and hence are unavoidable. (orig./HP) [de

  4. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea

    2001-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system.

  5. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system. 23 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  6. Risk of Thyroid Cancer after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, S.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: A sound scientific understanding about the relationship between radiation dose and health risk is needed to apply any countermeasure against radiological and nuclear accidents. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project since June 2011 for the purpose of long-term health care administration for the prefectural residents. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, however, it is still difficult to estimate retrospectively accurate internal exposure dose individually from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Another difficult challenge is to how to manage non-radiation–related health effects, such as post-disaster mental impact and lifestyle changes. As we support residents in their recovery and return to their homes, understanding each individual’s state with respect to radiation and regular monitoring of their health conditions contribute to the region’s rebirth and restoration. Therefore, as one of the tools of risk communication, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer by mass screening. (author

  7. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea

    2001-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  8. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving type A package shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper is an account of work performed within a multi-lateral research project on the radiological risks associated with the transportation of Type A packaged radioactive material. The research project has been performed on behalf of the European Commission and various national agencies of the participating countries and involved organizations and institutes of five EU Member States, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. The main objectives of the research project were the assessment and appraisal of the potential radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A package shipments in participating EU Member States. Data were collected and include harmonized sets information related to the type, quantity and characteristics of Type A package shipments by road. Such databases were basically non-existent until recently. The results are expected to be valuable to both national agencies and international organizations, with responsibilities for the safe transport of radioactive materials by providing some insight in the carriage of radioactive materials by road making up a major fraction of radioactive material transports. Similarly, a wide body of information has been collected and compiled on road transport accidents in terms of the frequency of occurrence and the severity of accidental impact loads potentially experienced by a Type A package.In addition, the results will facilitate judgement of the adequacy of the IAEA Transport Regulations as far as Type A packages are concerned. (O.M.)

  9. The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions

  10. Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

  11. Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C Sauter

    Full Text Available There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes.This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression.Two hundred and eighty (280 patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235 patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9% and traumatic brain injury (TBI was detected in 28 patients (10%. Eight (8 of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15, (29.6% exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both.In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05, but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171.In patients

  12. Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

    2013-01-01

    Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

  13. Comparison of the Transportation Risks Resulting from Accidents during the Transportation of the Spent Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong Jong Tae; Cho, Dong Kuen; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

    2007-01-01

    The safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable disposal of high level wastes and spent fuels is becoming a very important issue. The operational safety assessment of a repository including a transportation safety assessment is a fundamental part in order to achieve this goal. According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for spent fuels. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from the accidents during the transportation of spent fuels for these four transportation scenarios

  14. Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2012-01-01

    A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness

  15. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  16. Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, U. T.

    2016-12-01

    Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged

  17. Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

    1996-01-01

    In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

  18. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  19. Research on risk communication after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horiguchi, Itsuko

    2013-01-01

    This report is about the risk communication cases that the author participated in after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The research aims to clarify the content of information that should be provided in risk communication and to develop a risk communication tool specifically designed for this purpose. The risk communication cases were explanatory meetings intended for the residents in Fukushima Prefecture and the advisory council on radiation health effects sponsored by Tochigi Prefecture. To clarify the kinds of information necessary to provide at such meetings, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 31 food sanitation inspectors using the Delphi method. A gaming simulation was used for the development of the communication tool. We used public disclosure materials at the meetings and the survey was conducted only among those whom we obtained written informed consent. The content regarding the radioactive substances in food which was found to be the most important for the consumers to learn was ''zero risk is impossible'' (84 points), followed by ''radioactive substances and other risks (e.g. smoking and excessive alcohol intake)'' (70 points). To develop the communication tool, we used ''Quartetto (card game)'' and the contents were such as ''daily life'', ''radioactive substances'', and ''measurement''. Considering the questions raised from the residents at the meetings, an information portal such as homepages did not provide clear information on how to evaluate risks by themselves. The results from the questionnaire survey shows that it is difficult to solve this matter unless the public learns to think about the risks of various matters on their own. The lack of experts will make it necessary for the local government officials to provide more information, and therefore training on risk communication is essential. We need to evaluate the Quartetto game and revise the content considering the audience. (author)

  20. Forecasting lionfish sources and sinks in the Atlantic: are Gulf of Mexico reef fisheries at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Matthew W.; Bernard, Andrea M.; Shivji, Mahmood S.

    2017-03-01

    Invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles complex) now permeate the entire tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, but lionfish abundance has been measured only in select locations in the field. Despite its rapid range expansion, a comprehensive meta-population analysis of lionfish `sources' and `sinks' and consequentially the invader's potential abundance and impacts on economically important, sympatric reef fishes have not been assessed. These data are urgently needed to spatially direct control efforts and to plan for and perhaps mitigate lionfish-caused damage. Here, we use a biophysical computer model to: (1) forecast larval lionfish sources and sinks that are also delineated as low to high lionfish `density zones' throughout their invaded range, and (2) assess the potential vulnerability of five grouper and snapper species— Epinephelus morio, Mycteroperca microlepis, Epinephelus flavolimbatus, Lutjanus campechanus, and Rhomboplites aurorubens—to lionfish within these density zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that the west Florida shelf and nearshore waters of Texas, USA, and Guyana, South America, function both as lionfish sources and sinks and should be a high priority for targeted lionfish control. Furthermore, of the five groupers and snappers studied, the high fishery value E. morio (red grouper) is the Gulf of Mexico species most at risk from lionfish. Lacking a comprehensive lionfish control policy, these risk exposure data inform managers where removals should be focused and demonstrate the risk to five sympatric native groupers and snappers in the Gulf of Mexico that may be susceptible to dense lionfish aggregations, should control efforts fail.

  1. Hand-calculation technique for the evaluation of public risk from a severe accident at a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linn, M.A.; Schmoyer, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in the process of promulgating a proposed rule 10 CFR Part 54, ''Requirements for Renewal of Operating Licensees for Nuclear Power Plants,'' which will allow licenses to renew the operating licenses on their nuclear power plants for an additional 20 years beyond the original 40-year limit. A Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS) prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in conjunction with and for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to assess the environmental issues associated with this proposed rule. The evaluation of the environmental impact from postulated severe accidents was included in the GEIS. During this evaluation of postulated severe accidents, a method was developed to estimate the public health consequences of atmospheric releases from severe accidents that is much simpler to use than existing consequence computer codes. From the results of this work, it is concluded that the simplified methodology does provide reasonable and conservative estimates of public risk from atmospheric releases from severe accidents

  2. Molecular alterations in childhood thyroid cancer after Chernobyl accident and low-dose radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Keiji; Mitsutake, Norisato; Yamashita, Shunichi

    2012-01-01

    The linear no-threshold (LNT) model of radiation carcinogenesis has been used for evaluating the risk from radiation exposure. While the epidemiological studies have supported the LNT model at doses above 100 mGy, more uncertainties are still existed in the LNT model at low doses below 100 mGy. Thus, it is urged to clarify the molecular mechanisms underlying radiation carcinogenesis. After the Chernobyl accident in 1986, significant amount of childhood thyroid cancer has emerged in the children living in the contaminated area. As the incidence of sporadic childhood thyroid cancer is very low, it is quite evident that those cancer cases have been induced by radiation exposure caused mainly by the intake of contaminated foods, such as milk. Because genetic alterations in childhood thyroid cancers have extensively been studied, it should provide a unique chance to understand the molecular mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis. In a current review, molecular signatures obtained from the molecular studies of childhood thyroid cancer after Chernobyl accident have been overviewed, and new roles of radiation exposure in thyroid carcinogenesis will be discussed. (author)

  3. Special committee review of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's severe accident risks report (NUREG--1150)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kouts, H.J.C.; Apostolakis, G.; Kastenberg, W.E.; Birkhofer, E.H.A.; Hoegberg, L.G.; LeSage, L.G.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Teague, H.J.; Taylor, J.J.

    1990-08-01

    In April 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) published a draft report ''Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants,'' NUREG-1150. This report updated, extended and improved upon the information presented in the 1974 ''Reactor Safety Study,'' WASH-1400. Because the information in NUREG-1150 will play a significant role in implementing the NRC's Severe Accident Policy, its quality and credibility are of critical importance. Accordingly, the Commission requested that the RES conduct a peer review of NUREG-1150 to ensure that the methods, safety insights and conclusions presented are appropriate and adequately reflect the current state of knowledge with respect to reactor safety. To this end, RES formed a special committee in June of 1989 under the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. The Committee, composed of a group of recognized national and international experts in nuclear reactor safety, was charged with preparing a report reflecting their review of NUREG-1150 with respect to the adequacy of the methods, data, analysis and conclusions it set forth. The report which precedes reflects the results of this peer review

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Cask Drop Accident during On-site Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Jae Hyun; Christian, Robby; Momani, Belal Al; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are two ways to transfer the SNF from a site to other site, one is land transportation and the other is maritime transportation. Maritime transportation might be used because this way uses more safe route which is far from populated area. The whole transportation process can be divided in two parts: transferring the SNF between SNP and wharf in-Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site by truck, and transferring the SNF from the wharf to the other wharf by ship. In this research, on-site SNF transportation between SNP and wharf was considered. Two kinds of single accident can occur during this type of SNF transportation, impact and fire, caused by internal events and external events. In this research, PRA of cask drop accident during onsite SNF transportation was done, risk to a person (mSv/person) from a case with specific conditions was calculated. In every 11 FEM simulation drop cases, FDR is 1 even the fuel assemblies are located inside of the cask. It is a quite larger value for all cases than the results with similar drop condition from the reports which covers the PRA on cask storage system. Because different from previous reports, subsequent impact was considered. Like in figure 8, accelerations which are used to calculate the FDR has extremely higher values in subsequent impact than the first impact for all SNF assemblies.

  5. Latent profile analysis of lifestyle characteristics and health risk behaviors among Koreans who have completed industrial accident care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2017-10-07

    This study investigated the characteristics and health behavior profiles of 1,803 workers who had experienced industrial accidents. Average weekly exercise days, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, average daily sleep duration, and number of days of alcohol consumption were selected to investigate health behavior profiles. Specifically, latent profile analysis was applied to identify the health behavior profiles of people who had completed industrial accident care; the latent classes were the health-conscious type (n=240), the potential-risk type (n=850), and the high-risk type (n=713). Comparison of the health-conscious and potential-risk types indicated that younger subjects, the employed, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the potential-risk type. Comparison of the health-conscious and high-risk types revealed that males, younger subjects, the employed, those without chronic illnesses, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the high-risk type. The results suggest that industrial accident victims who have completed accident care have different health behaviors and it is necessary to improve health promotion based on health type characteristics.

  6. Use of nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blinov, N.N.; Guslistyj, V.P.; Misyurev, A.V.; Novitskaya, N.N.; Snigireva, G.P.

    1993-01-01

    Attempt of using of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition to detect the risk groups among liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident aftereffects was described. 14 hematologic, biochemical and biophysical blood serum parameters of the group of liquidators of the Chernobyl NPP accident impact as well as the group of donors free of any radiation dose (controlled group) were taken as the diagnostic parameters. Modification of the nonstatistical techniques for pattern recognition based on the assessment calculations were used. The patients were divided into risk group at the truth ∼ 80%

  7. Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

  8. Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Questions concerning safety and risk after the nuclear accidents in Japan. Deepened accident analysis for the Fukushima Daiichi power plant; Sicherheits- und Risikofragen im Nachgang zu den nuklearen Stoer- und Unfaellen in Japan. Vertiefte Ereignisanalyse zur Anlage Fukushima-Daini

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pistner, Christoph; Englert, Matthias [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2015-02-25

    The study questions concerning safety and risk in Japanese power plants following the disastrous nuclear accident covers the following issues: the nuclear facility Fukushima Daiichi, site characterization, important technical equipment, important electro-technical equipment, personal; description of the accident progression in the Fukushima nuclear power plant: impact of the earthquake, impact of the tsunami, short-term measures of the operating personnel, pressure and temperature situation in the containments, restoration of the after-heat cooling system in the units 1/2 and 4, fuel element storage pool, summarized parameters during the accident progress; comparative analysis of the accident progression at the Fukushima Daiichi site.

  10. Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, K. A.; Montz, B.; Carr, R. H.; Maxfield, K.; Ahnert, P.; Shedd, R.; Elliott, J.

    2017-12-01

    When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA's CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, PA) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers. The research team held focus groups in Jefferson County, WV and Frederick County, MD, to test a new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). HEFS is an ensemble system that provides short and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 hours to 1 year, showing uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. The goal of the study was to assess the utility of the HEFS products, identify the barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggest modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for residential, emergency managers, and water resource managers. The research team worked with the Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast center to develop a weather scenario as the basis of the focus group discussions, which also included pre and post session surveys. This presentation shares the findings from those focus group discussions and surveys, including recommendations for revisions to

  11. 77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-06

    ... and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION... Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' The NRC is extending the public comment period... assessment (PRA) information and severe accident assessments for new reactors submitted to support design...

  12. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; S. Hughes, J.; B. Shaw, K.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Heinen, J.F.A. van; Jansma, R.

    2001-01-01

    An assessment and evaluation of the potential radiological risks of transport accidents involving Type A package shipments by road have been performed by five EU Member States, France, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis involved collection and analysis of information on a national basis related to the type, volume, and characteristics of Type A package consignments, the associated radioactive traffic, and the expected frequency and consequences of potential vehicular road transport accidents. It was found that the majority of Type A packaged radioactive material shipments by road is related to applications of non-special form radioactive material, i.e. radiopharmaceuticals, radiochemicals etc., in medicine, research, and industry and special form material contained in radiography and other radiation sources, e.g. gauging equipment. The annual volumes of Type A package shipments of radiopharmaceuticals and radiochemicals by road differ considerably between the participating EU Member States from about 12,000 Type A packages in Sweden to about 240,000 in the Netherlands. The broad range reflects to a large extent the supply of radioactive material for the national populations and the production and distribution operations prevailing in the participating EU Member States (some are producer countries, others are not!). Very few standard package designs weighing from about 1-25 kg are predominant in Type A package shipments in all participating countries. Type A packages contain typically a range of radioactivity from a few mega becquerels to a few tens of giga becquerels, the average package activity contents is in terms of fractions of A 2 about 0.01, i.e. about one hundredth of a Type A package contents limits. Based on a probabilistic risk assessment method it has been concluded that the expected frequencies of occurrence of vehicular road transport accidents with the potential to result in an environmental release - including radiologically

  13. Liability and insurance of nuclear accident risk the swiss regulation in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umbricht, R.; Zweifel, P.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we argue that compulsory insurance of nuclear liability should be extended. Most countries have explicit limitations of operators' liability, which also lie at the heart of international conventions. Moreover, there are implicit limitations imposed by operators' inability to pay where unlimited and strict liability applies. These limitations result in static and dynamic inefficiencies because they allow nuclear plant operators to eschew the risk costs of a severe nuclear accident. Extension of compulsory insurance, however, will exacerbate problems of market failure in insurance: National insurance pools have monopolized the business and are expected to exercise market power. Furthermore, their capacity may fall short of required coverage. Bringing in capital market investors can alleviate these problems. Nuclear liability insurance data from Switzerland provides statistical evidence in support of our main points. (authors)

  14. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving type A-packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Van Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

    1998-10-01

    This document, prepared in the framework of a study for the European Commission, presents the evaluation of the risks of accidents associated to the road transport of type A-packages (primarily packages of radio-pharmaceutic or radiography products) for five countries of the European Union. The annual transport of type A-packages varies considerably from one country to another, some countries being producers of radio-pharmaceutic products, others not. These packages are also very different one from each another: the weight varies generally from 1 to 25 kg and the activity from some Mega-Becquerels to few tens of Giga-Becquerels, the average activity expressed in A 2 is 0,01. (A.L.B.)

  15. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  16. A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Jian; Spradling, Philip R; Moorman, Anne C; Holmberg, Scott D; Teshale, Eyasu H; Rupp, Loralee B; Gordon, Stuart C; Lu, Mei; Boscarino, Joseph A; Schmidt, Mark A; Trinacty, Connie M; Xu, Fujie

    2017-11-01

    Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting. Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C. Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk. Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87). This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

  17. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  18. Radiation risk after Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident and recognition of society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2017-01-01

    In the Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident, the confusion caused by inconsistency of risk assessment among scientists cast new challenges for communication between science and society. In response to the way of crisis communication in the future, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) is required to extract specific subjects and to make efforts to solve them. The Committee for 'Radiation Risk and Crisis Communication' had been set up in the Leading R and D Committee of JSPS over three years since October 2013. This paper introduced the outline of the Committee for 'Radiation Risk and Crisis Communication,' with a focus on the activity system of three subcommittees, activity guidelines and contents of each subcommittee, and the outcomes of activities of each subcommittee. The themes of the subcommittees are as follows. The subcommittee 1 is to collect, analyze, and organize information on the effects of radiation based on the latest findings, the subcommittee 2 is to study the formation of consensus within the scientific community as well as information disclosure methods, and the subcommittee 3 is to survey and study the information disclosure means of radiation measurement results under crisis situation. (A.O.)

  19. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  20. Cannabis use predicts risks of heart failure and cerebrovascular accidents: results from the National Inpatient Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalla, Aditi; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram M; Gopalakrishnan, Akshaya; Figueredo, Vincent M

    2018-06-06

    Cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational purposes has been decriminalized in 28 states as of the 2016 election. In the remaining states, cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit drug. Cardiovascular effects of cannabis use are not well established due to a limited number of studies. We therefore utilized a large national database to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and events amongst patients with cannabis use. Patients aged 18-55 years with cannabis use were identified in the National Inpatient Sample 2009-2010 database using the Ninth Revision of International Classification of Disease code 304.3. Demographics, risk factors, and cardiovascular event rates were collected on these patients and compared with general population data. Prevalence of heart failure, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, and hypertension were significantly higher in patients with cannabis use. After multivariate regression adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, tobacco use, and alcohol use, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of both heart failure (odds ratio = 1.1, 1.03-1.18, P < 0.01) and CVA (odds ratio = 1.24, 1.14-1.34, P < 0.001). Cannabis use independently predicted the risks of heart failure and CVA in individuals 18-55 years old. With continued legalization of cannabis, potential cardiovascular effects and their underlying mechanisms need to be further investigated.

  1. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Philip

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents.A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents.As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05. The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05, 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05, 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05, and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05. Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents.Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  2. [Risk factors associated with work-related accidents in the construction industry in the Valley of Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento-Salinas, Rodrigo; López-Rojas, Pablo; Marín-Cotoñieto, Irma Araceli; Godínez-Rocha, Arturo; Haro-García, Luis; Salinas-Tovar, Santiago

    2004-01-01

    Our aim was to describe construction-industry, work-related accident prevalence in, associated factors in, and potential impact on affiliated workers of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, IMSS) in the Valley of Mexico. Prevalent cases in a retrospective case-control design. These include 385 construction-industry workers who were found to have construction work-related accidents in 2001. Controls comprised 385 active construction-industry workers without work-related accident background paired by gender, workplace, and worksite. Work-related accident prevalence in construction workers was 5.5%; most important risk factors and etiology fraction (Ef) included the following: age 16-20 years odds ratio, OR = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-10.7, p = 0.001, Ef 0.36; eventual insurance, OR = 3.7, 95% CI, 2.16-26.45, p = 0.001), Ef, 0.72, and no training for job, OR = 5.3, 95% CI, 4.9-69.2, p = 0.01), Ef: 0.81. Variables not showing significance were included salary, work shift, and workday. Work-related accident prevalence maintains its preponderance in the Valley of Mexico construction industry; identified risk factors are potentially modifiable, among which job training acquires unquestionable relevance.

  3. With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

    2010-02-01

    Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

  4. Risk factors associated with visiting or not visiting the accident & emergency department after a fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheffer, Alice C; van Hensbroek, Pieter Boele; van Dijk, Nynke; Luitse, Jan S K; Goslings, Johannes C; Luigies, René H; de Rooij, Sophia E

    2013-07-26

    Little is known about the prevalence of modifiable risk factors of falling in elderly persons with a fall-history who do not visit the Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department after one or more falls. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of modifiable risk factors in a population that visited the A&E Department after a fall (A&E group) and in a community-dwelling population of elderly individuals with a fall history who did not visit the A&E Department after a fall (non-A&E group). Two cohorts were included in this study. The first cohort included 547 individuals 65 years and older who were visited at home by a mobile fall prevention team. The participants in this cohort had fall histories but did not visit the A&E Department after a previous fall. These participants were age- and gender-matched to persons who visited the A&E Department for care after a fall. All participants were asked to complete the CAREFALL Triage Instrument. The mean number of modifiable risk factors in patients who did not visit the A&E Department was 2.9, compared to 3.8 in the group that visited the A&E Department (pfalling, impaired vision, mood and high risk of osteoporosis were all independently associated with visiting the A&E Department. All modifiable risk factors for falling were found to be shared between community-dwelling elderly individuals with a fall history who visited the A&E Department and those who did not visit the Department, although the prevalence of these factors was somewhat lower in the A&E group. Preventive strategies aimed both at patients presenting to the A&E Department after a fall and those not presenting after a fall could perhaps reduce the number of recurrent falls, the occurrence of injury and the frequency of visits to the A&E Department.

  5. THE EMOTIONAL PROSODY OF U.S. FATAL AIR-ACCIDENT DOCKETS ONLINE: RISKING RISK COMMUNICATION?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Кармен Санчо Гинда

    2018-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk communication is grounded in both rationality and emotion (Fischhoff & Kadvany 2011, Bo-holm & Corvellec 2014. Recent investigations have proved that emotions do affect risk and danger percep-tions by functioning as ‘mediators’ (Xie et al. 2011 and become important in decision-making. My study explores how emotion is induced by the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States of America (NTSB for short to influence the mentalities and behaviours of its broad mixed audience and thus increase risk prevention. With that research purpose in mind, I examine an electronic corpus of over 500 online samples of fatal aviation dockets issued yearly online by the NTSB between the time span 2010-2015 and contained in its website databases. The emotional engagement deployed to mediate the perceptions of risk and danger by the general public constitutes a unique genre among all other world transportation agencies, since through informative vividness it pursues to activate the processes of memory, inference (i.e. judgement and decision-making. I take Stubbs’ (2001 concept of ‘discursive prosody’ as point of departure and resort to a blended theoretical framework that combines Narratology, Corpus Linguistics, Critical Discourse Analysis, and Proximisation (Cap 2013 and Positioning (Harré & van Langenhove 1999 Theories. I will show that the NTSB’s emotional prosody is more rhetorical than lexical and that the narrative strategies of focalisation and speech representation play a salient role. To conclude I will reflect on some of the possible consequences of over-exploiting emotional engagement in risk communication.

  6. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  7. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  9. Risk reduction category (RRC-A) accident studies in the safety analysis report of the EPR trademark reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poehlmann, M.; Bleher, G.; Ismaier, A.; Knoll, A.; Levi, P.; Garcia, E. Vera; Schels, A.; Seitz, H.; Lima Campos, L.

    2013-01-01

    The Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is considered in the safety demonstration of nuclear reactors in addition to design basis operating conditions (Plant Condition Category, PCC), in order to analyze with a risk reduction approach any operating conditions with multiple failures. As extending the operating conditions of the plant 'beyond design basis', the Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is also denoted as Design Extension Condition (DEC-A). In the German licensing framework, the RRCA (or DEC-A) transients correspond to safety assessment level '4b' of the 'Sicherheitsanforderungen an Kernkraftwerke' (Safety Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants), Az. RS I 5 - 13303/01 of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. These RRC-A (or DEC-A) operating conditions require specific design provisions (implemented by manual or automatic action), known as RRC-A measures, intended to render consequences of accumulated failures admissible. In contrast, RRC-B constitute severe accidents that lead to core melt. Identification of RRC-A operating conditions and corresponding RRC-A measures is based on the use of results of probabilistic safety assessments. After the Fukushima accident the RRC-A accidents like Station Black Out (SBO) or Loss of Ultimate Heat Sink (LUHS) are of particular interest in the safety assessment of nuclear new builds. In several chapters of the Safety Analysis Report it is demonstrated that the AREVA EPRTM design is resistant at RRC-A accident conditions. (orig.)

  10. Tacit Driving Knowledge, Emotional Intelligence, Stressful Events and Accident Risk: Traffic Safety Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Legree, Peter

    1999-01-01

    ... and the driver's internal or emotional state. The tests were administered with a battery of conventional cognitive tests, personality instruments and situational variables chosen to predict accident involvement...

  11. Present of occupational accidents dimensions based on risk-injury affinity groups (case study, from1384 to 1393

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peyman Yari

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and aim: correspondence analysis method as the best method to optimize matrix functions that using the risk-injury matrix methods are analyzed. This method reduces the information contained in the risk-injury table and to determine the correlation between the variables in the matrix. The aim of this study is to present accidents and occupational hazards dimensions is dependent to risk-injury groups, using occupational accidents that can be managed. Method: in this study the reports of occupational accidents registered in the social security organization in a period of ten years from the beginning of 1384 until the end of 1393 ( 222,300 incidents were collected and type of Risk and injury related to any accident identified based on criteria, the International Labour Organization and classified in a risk-injury matrix (18 × 18. Using correspondence analysis of dimensions are identified individually, this dimensions Most indicate the most correlation between risk and injury that facilitate decision-making in the risk assessment companies are covered by Social Security.  Results: Hair criteria recommends dimensions with inertia higher than 0.2 are suitable for the study and interpretation of results, based on this study were obtained from the dimensions of inertia (eigenvalue greater than 0.2 include the dim1 ,dim2 ,dim3 to consider and the correlation between variables is obtained based on singular value (variable distance from the centeroid. (Singular value of dim1: 0.750, singular value of dimension 2: 0.647 and singular value dimension3: 0.521

  12. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  14. Evaluation and communication of potential risk of radionuclide contamination of foods after Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekizawa, Jun; Nakamura, Yumiko

    2011-01-01

    A large scale nuclear power plant accident happened after the great earthquake with a huge tsunami in the Eastern part of Japan in March 2011. Potential risk from radionuclide contamination in foods after the nuclear power plant accident was estimated using data of radiological food contamination from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Data analyzed by combining nuclide, food, level of radiation detection, period, age-classified population, were compared to provisional index levels of radionuclides, and existing contamination levels in food by natural radioactive potassium. Health risk was shown to be very low or negligible considering presence of background radiological exposure from foods and the environment. Appropriate explanation of risk to various stakeholders of the society is imperative and results of trials were reported. (author)

  15. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1975-10-01

    The Reactor Safety Study was sponsored by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to estimate the public risks that could be involved in potential accidents in commercial nuclear power plants of the type now in use. It was performed under the independent direction of Professor Norman C. Rasmussen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The risks had to be estimated, rather than measured, because although there are about 50 such plants now operating, there have been no nuclear accidents to date resulting in significant releases of radioactivity in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The objective of the study was to make a realistic estimate of these risks and, to provide perspective, to compare them with non-nuclear risks to which our society and its individuals are already exposed. This information may be of help in determining the future reliance by society on nuclear power as a source of electricity. The results from this study suggest that the risks to the public from potential accidents in nuclear power plants are comparatively small.

  16. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-10-01

    The Reactor Safety Study was sponsored by the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to estimate the public risks that could be involved in potential accidents in commercial nuclear power plants of the type now in use. It was performed under the independent direction of Professor Norman C. Rasmussen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The risks had to be estimated, rather than measured, because although there are about 50 such plants now operating, there have been no nuclear accidents to date resulting in significant releases of radioactivity in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The objective of the study was to make a realistic estimate of these risks and, to provide perspective, to compare them with non-nuclear risks to which our society and its individuals are already exposed. This information may be of help in determining the future reliance by society on nuclear power as a source of electricity. The results from this study suggest that the risks to the public from potential accidents in nuclear power plants are comparatively small

  17. Data on the determinants of the risk of fatalities, serious injuries and light injuries in traffic accidents on interurban roads in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, María Pilar Sánchez; Sotos, Francisco Escribano; Ponce, Ángel Tejada

    2018-06-01

    This article describes the data collection used to analyse the risk of fatalities and injuries resulting from traffic accidents on interurban roads in the provinces of Spain from 1999 to 2015. The database includes data on different factors related to accidents rates for each Spanish province. These data were used in the article entitled "Impact of provincial characteristics on the number of traffic accident victims on interurban roads in Spain" (Sánchez et al., 2018) [1].

  18. Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

    2012-04-01

    In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

  19. Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, X.L.; Li, Q.B.; Su, G.F.; Yuan, M.Q.

    2015-01-01

    The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p < 0.001). It retrieves 94% of the total PMCH released and substantially reduces transport error (>80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error). - Highlights: • EnKF is augmented for estimating emission and improving dispersion forecast. • The improved system retrieves 94% of the actual total tracer release in ETEX. • The system substantially improves the 3-h forecast of the tracer dispersion. • The method is robust and insensitive to the first-guess emissions. • The meteorological uncertainties exert strong influence on the performance

  20. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department ' ' Radiation Protection and Health' ' , Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Zurich, Medical Physics Group, Institute of Physics, Zurich (Switzerland); Zhang, Wei [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and

  1. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  2. Analysis of rail accident frequencies and severities for the assessment of radioactive material transport risk - Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heywood, J.D.; Schwartz, G.; Fett, J.

    2001-01-01

    This shortened version of the final contractual report to the European Commission DGXVII summarises the work performed and the conclusions drawn from consideration, comparison and analysis of transport accident frequency and severity assessment methods for radioactive material transport by rail. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the study whose final report is 155 pages in length. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of transport risk assessment methods and related databases available to EU member states. The emphasis has been on the probabilistic accident severity and frequency assessment methodologies developed and used by the organisations involved in this EU-funded research project - AEA Technology and GRS. The results should be of major assistance in the understanding and development of standardised quantitative risk assessment models. Further work is suggested to underpin the development of a harmonised accident methodology including the collection of more detailed rail data and analysis on a year by year basis as well as further consideration of the assumptions made for fire accident scenarios. (author)

  3. Colloquium / Preparation for nuclear post-accident. Citizens and local authorities involvement in major risks governance - proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, Michel; Villers, Anita; Sene, Monique; Godin, Francois; Quilichini, Jean-Michel; Rollinger, Francois; Delalonde, Jean-Claude; Mehl-Auget, Isabelle; Autret, Jean-Claude; Heriard Dubreuil, Gilles; Petitfrere, Michael; Lochard, Jacques; Demet, Michel; Boucherie, Jean-Claude; Calafat, Alexis; Sommade, Christian; Villain, Alain; Ragazzo, Romeo; Rengot, Marielle; Sename, Jean; Thellier, Yvette; Tremelet, David; Olszewski, Richard; Fournier, Nicolas

    2009-12-01

    During 40 years, France has chosen nuclear energy as main energy source for power generation. Today, nuclear energy covers 80% of the French electricity needs. For this reason, in France, each inhabitant lives at less than 200 km of a nuclear power plant. The September 11, 2001 terror attack has led to reconsider the nuclear risk in terms of security. In 2005, the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) has been entrusted with the preparation of a nuclear post-accident management study. This study has been mainly based on the experience feedback of the Chernobyl accident and on the dialogue with different actors of the French territory: the local authorities, the habitants, the associations and the health, environment and education actors. This colloquium represents the opening act of the joint elaboration of the management of a potential nuclear accident at the region scale. The colloquium was organized around 5 round tables: 1 - Did the nuclear safety transparency law change the situation?; 2 - Examples of pluralistic dialogues: the long-term management of a nuclear accident; 3 - How to encourage the necessary skills development of citizens? 4 - Regional development strategies in terms of nuclear risks management (incidents, effluents, wastes, transports..); 5 - New territory liabilities and citizens' legitimate aspiration in terms of health/environment: building something together. This document is the proceedings of this colloquium. It reports the exchanges between the participants

  4. Derivation of Accident-Specific Material-at-Risk Equivalency Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jason P. Andrus; Dr. Chad L. Pope

    2012-05-01

    A novel method for calculating material at risk (MAR) dose equivalency developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) now allows for increased utilization of dose equivalency for facility MAR control. This method involves near-real time accounting for the use of accident and material specific release and transport. It utilizes all information from the committed effective dose equation and the five factor source term equation to derive dose equivalency factors which can be used to establish an overall facility or process MAR limit. The equivalency factors allow different nuclide spectrums to be compared for their respective dose consequences by relating them to a specific quantity of an identified reference nuclide. The ability to compare spectrums to a reference limit ensures that MAR limits are in fact bounding instead of attempting to establish a representative or bounding spectrum which may lead to unintended or unanalyzed configurations. This methodology is then coupled with a near real time material tracking system which allows for accurate and timely material composition information and corresponding MAR equivalency values. The development of this approach was driven by the complex nature of processing operations in some INL facilities. This type of approach is ideally suited for facilities and processes where the composition of the MAR and possible release mechanisms change frequently but in well defined fashions and in a batch-type nature.

  5. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L.

    2000-12-01

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  6. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (2) Application concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, Masanobu; Kanaida, Syuuji; Kamiya, Kouichi; Sato, Kunihiko; Kuroiwa, Katsuya

    2016-01-01

    The influence of the fault displacement on the facility should to be evaluated not only by the activity of the fault but also by obtaining risk information by considering scenarios including such as the frequency and the degree of the hazard, which should be an appropriate approach for nuclear safety. An applicable concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences for evaluating the influence of the fault displacement is proposed. By use of this analysis, we can evaluate of the safety functions and margin for core damage, verify the efficiency of equipment of portable type and make a decision to take additional measures to reduce the risk by using obtained risk information. (author)

  7. Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

  8. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  9. Assessment of risk due to vehicle accident for the plutonium solution transfer from H-area to F-area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1996-09-01

    Transporting radioactive material onsite (intrasite transfers) via truck or train must be performed in a safe manner. Adequate safety is assured for each transfer, as documented in the corresponding Onsite Safety Assessment (OSA). One aspect of the OSA is to show that the package to be used for the transfer meets onsite acceptance criteria. The activity being analyzed in this report is the movement of plutonium solution with greater than 20 curies, all reasonable mitigative controls will be implemented to minimize the likelihood of an accidental release, and a probabilistic analysis will be used to evaluate the risk associated with the move. The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of risk due to vehicle accident associated with transporting plutonium solution from H-area to F-area. Included in the report is a list of the required mitigative controls which reduce the predicted accident and release frequencies to those reported in the summary

  10. [Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, M; Kotterba, S

    2012-04-01

    Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

  11. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. What are the Risk Factors for Cerebrovascular Accidents After Elective Orthopaedic Surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minhas, Shobhit V; Goyal, Preeya; Patel, Alpesh A

    2016-03-01

    Perioperative cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) are one of the leading causes of patient morbidity, mortality, and medical costs. However, little is known regarding the rates of these events and risk factors for CVA after elective orthopaedic surgery. Our goals were to (1) establish the national, baseline proportion of patients experiencing a 30-day CVA and the timing of CVA; and (2) determine independent risk factors for 30-day CVA rates after common elective orthopaedic procedures. Patients undergoing elective TKA, THA, posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, anterior cervical discectomy and fusion, and total shoulder arthroplasty, from 2006 to 2012, were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program(®) database. A total of 42,150 patients met inclusion criteria. Thirty-day CVA rates were recorded for each procedure, and patients were assessed for characteristics associated with CVA through univariate analysis. Multivariate regression models were created to identify independent risk factors for CVA. A total of 55 (0.13%) patients experienced a CVA within 30 days of the procedure, occurring a median of 2 days after surgery (range, 1-30 days) with 0.08% of patients experiencing a CVA after TKA, 0.15% after THA, 0.00% after single-level anterior cervical discectomy and fusion, 0.38% after multilevel anterior cervical discectomy and fusions, 0.20% after single-level posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, 0.70% after multilevel posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, and 0.22% after total shoulder arthroplasty. Independent risk factors for CVA included age of 75 years or older (odds ratio [OR], 2.50; 95% CI, 1.44-4.35; p = 0.001), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR, 3.08; CI, 1.47-6.45; p = 0.003), hypertension (OR, 2.71; CI, 1.19-6.13; p = 0.017), history of transient ischemic attack (OR, 2.83; CI, 1.24-6.45; p = 0.013), dyspnea (OR, 2.51; CI, 1.30-4.86; p = 0.006), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

  13. Managing the Cost Overrun Risks of Hydroelectric Dams: An Application of Reference Class Forecasting Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Omotola Awojobi; Glenn P. Jenkins

    2015-01-01

    Hydropower investments have been subject to intense criticism over environmental issues and the common experience with cost uncertainty. In this study we address the issue of uncertainty in cost projections by applying reference class forecasting (RCF) in order to improve the reliability of costs used for making decisions under uncertainty. This technique makes it possible to closely link contingency estimates to the likely incidence of uncertainty of construction costs for hydroelectric dams...

  14. Information Sources as Explanatory Variables for the Belgian Health-Related Risk Perception of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyncke, Bart; Perko, Tanja; Van Gorp, Baldwin

    2017-03-01

    The media play an important role in risk communication, providing information about accidents, both nearby and far away. Each media source has its own presentation style, which could influence how the audience perceives the presented risk. This study investigates the explanatory power of 12 information sources (traditional media, new media, social media, and interpersonal communication) for the perceived risk posed by radiation released from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant on respondents' own health and that of the population in general. The analysis controlled for attitude toward nuclear energy, gender, education, satisfaction with the media coverage, and duration of attention paid to the coverage. The study uses a large empirical data set from a public opinion survey, which is representative for the Belgian population with respect to six sociodemographic variables. Results show that three information sources are significant regressors of perceived health-related risk of the nuclear accident: television, interpersonal communication, and the category of miscellaneous online sources. More favorable attitudes toward nuclear power, longer attention to the coverage, and higher satisfaction with the provided information lead to lower risk perception. Taken together, the results suggest that the media can indeed have a modest influence on how the audience perceives a risk. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Nuclear industry and the management of accident risk in Europe: from the internalisation default to the coverage organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiore, K.

    2007-12-01

    The production of nuclear energy creates environmental and sanitary risks among which the risk of nuclear accident. There is a twofold dimension in the management of such a risk: a preventive dimension and a compensatory one. Given its catastrophic and unpredictable character, the nuclear risk has always been managed in a specific way. In Europe, its management is unsatisfactory. The civil liability regime is beneficial to the nuclear industry as it leads to a lack of internalisation and thus to a limited coverage of potential damages. The financial cap of the nuclear operator's civil liability reduces his incentives for the prevention of accidents. By narrowing its liability, it also limits the burden tied to the coverage of the full potential damages. The organisation of the nuclear risk coverage was heavily conditioned by the civil liability regime and the financial cap it creates. Such an organisation is inefficient. The nuclear insurance market's financial capacity is not enough to compensate for all the potential victims of a major nuclear accident. Moreover, the functioning of this market is quite costly for the nuclear operator. While new electronuclear projects are being launched in Europe, the management of nuclear risks must be questioned in order to find better solutions to the necessity of internalising, preventing and compensating. Nuclear operators should be responsible for all the damages caused through an unlimited liability rule. The coverage of potential damages could also be improved by setting up a risk-sharing agreement at the European scale between operators. (author)

  16. Critique of the RASMUSSEN report (WASH-1400) on accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, F.W.

    1976-06-01

    The RASMUSSEN study represents an excellent survey of the current possibilities to assess quantitatively the operational risk of nuclear power plants. To close the big gaps which turned out to be still existent in calculating the possible accidents sequences and their consequences but also in the statistical materials, only rough models could be used because of the limited capability of theoretical analyses to replace lacking experience. Contrary to previous studies the risk estimates have not deliberately been maximized, apart from the fact that in many cases no 'safe' side does a priori exist. Rather, the RASMUSSEN study tried to make 'reasonable realistic' assumptions concerning accident sequences and activity release consequences, but it is difficult to refute that the results will tend to underestimate systematically the accident consequences. Besides, in every case the range of uncertainty will very likely be greater than stated in the study, not least also because the results are substantially influenced by technical features of the nuclear power plants under discussion. This should be given attention in discussions using the quantitative results of the study as well as the fact that planning, construction and operation of nuclear power plants must be done with utmost accuracy to achieve the specified low orders of risk. (author)

  17. Return to driving after severe traumatic brain injury: increased risk of traffic accidents and personal responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bivona, Umberto; DʼIppolito, Mariagrazia; Giustini, Marco; Vignally, Pascal; Longo, Eloise; Taggi, Franco; Formisano, Rita

    2012-01-01

    To determine the frequency of road traffic accidents among individuals who start or resume driving after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to investigate their responsibility for these accidents. Observational/retrospective study. Sixty adults with severe TBI and their caregivers. Return to Driving Questionnaire and Glasgow Outcome Scale. Thirty of the 60 participants started to drive or resumed driving after TBI. Nineteen (63%) of them were involved in traffic accidents, with personal responsibility in 26 of 36 after return to driving. Participants caused a significantly higher number of accidents after TBI than before. The ability to drive is frequently compromised after severe TBI. Specific rehabilitation of this complex activity should be a main goal of social reintegration programs in this population.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) update in light of the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station - 15461

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maeda, K.; Abe, H.; Hirokawa, N.; Satou, C.

    2015-01-01

    We have performed internal and external event probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for boiling water reactor power nuclear plants to identify the important accident sequence groups and to evaluate the effectiveness of the additional severe accident measures, regarding to the new regulatory requirements implemented after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan in 2011. In addition, we will further update our PRA by extracting problems and improvements from the current PRA, by catching up the state-of-the-art knowledge, modern PRA methodologies in order to contribute voluntarily to safety improvement as well as to comply with regulations. In this document, prior to the extensive PRA updates, we would describe technical contents and qualitative results about PRA updates that have been performed preliminary so far, especially about the external event (seismic) PRA and how to model the additionally deployed severe accident measures (e.g. power supply car, fire engine) so that they can be function external hazards, such as component failure rate of equipment, human reliability 'out of control room', and mission time extension. (authors)

  19. [Theory and testing of an accident risk assessment system based on prior experience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montresor, Michele; Ricci, Paolo; Giroletti, Elio

    2015-01-01

    to improve the "National Project: Integrated investigations for an indepth analysis of cases of Fatal Accidents", a project which, on one hand, is too open to interpretation of events, while, on the other, does not offer the possibility to analyse external factors which are often at the basis of accidents in the workplace. identification and weighting criteria regarding causes of accident have been established and correlated by means of a specific algorithm, with the aim of making them numerically measurable. This has made it possible to use them as indicators to identify lines of priority in prevention planning. The theoretical model has been tested in an analysis of 35 work accidents which occurred in a firm in Mantova. the model has been evaluated in comparison to the analysis which was previously used to examine cases of work-related accidents and it has proved to be more efficient in the move towards establishing preventative action at the beginning of a chain of events. While maintaining the "Learning from mistakes" model, the method here proposed represents an extension and an implementation of previous practices. It is an effective operative method for companies, offering both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of work-related accidents with a view to their prevention.

  20. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables. PMID:29077045

  1. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshitake Takebayashi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

  2. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takebayashi, Yoshitake; Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-10-27

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

  3. Accidents in industrial radiography in Brazil from 2005 to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of accidents occurring in industrial radiography in Brazil from 2005 until 2010 led to the study of the main characteristics of the events, their risks and dangers. This study outlines the main doubts on the subject, through a simplified analysis of the contents of high dose reports sent to CNEN by the companies that provide services for industrial radiography and from examining the growing number of radioactive sources for industrial radiography in Brazil, over this period. We classified the recorded events, as incidents, accidents, negligence, sabotage, and others, and studied their main consequences. We concluded that from 76 accidents that occurred during that period - 25 were real accidents, 13 minor accidents and 22 were inadvertent incidents. We found that the rate of growth in the number of sources is much greater than the rate of growth of accidents, with a ratio of 7.57 between them. The continuation of this study over some years, will allow the construction of a pyramid of accidents like the one developed by the Insurance Company of North America, specifically for industrial radiography to forecast the number of incidents and accidents that lead to serious or fatal injury. (author)

  4. Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2009-12-20

    This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

  5. Atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc score, antithrombotics and risk of traffic accidents: A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Hui-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lee, Wen-Lieng; Wang, Kuo-Yang; Wu, Tsu-Juey; Liu, Chia-Ning; Liu, Tsun-Jui

    2015-10-15

    Traffic accidents account for a substantial proportion of premature disabilities and deaths. Whether atrial fibrillation (AF) provokes while antithrombotics prevent from such events remains un-investigated. All patients ≥40years with newly diagnosed AF in 2005 were scrutinized from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005" (1 million beneficiaries) of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Institute as the AF group. Four-fold number of age-, gender-, and comorbidity-matched patients but without AF served as the Non-AF controls. Patients were followed till occurrence of hospitalization-requiring traffic injury, death, withdrawal from insurance, or the end of 2010. Cumulative incidence of traffic accidents was compared between groups, and predictors and preventive role of antithrombotics for these accidents were identified by Cox regression analysis. Within a mean follow-up of 4.3years, traffic injury occurred significantly more often in patients with AF (N=1724) than those without it (N=6896) (5.4 vs. 4.9 per 1000 person-years, log-rank p=0.012, HR 1.110, 95% CI 1.013-1.572). Cox models identified age ≧65years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, liver cirrhosis and CHADS2VASC score≧1 as risk factors for traffic injury in AF patients, whereas oral anticoagulants (HR 0.576, 95% CI 0.285-0.791, p=0.002) used in patients with CHADS2VASC score ≧1 but not antiplatelet therapy (p=0.197) as negative predictors. Patients with AF are more vulnerable to traffic accidents especially when with higher CHADS2VASC scores and other comorbidities. This tendency to traffic accidents, however, could be ameliorated by oral anticoagulation in specialized cases but not by antiplatelet therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  7. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makiko Orita

    Full Text Available The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP. To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8% answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0% residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1% residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5% residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2% residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5% residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  8. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  9. Usage of geotechnologies for risk management in radiation accidents; Uso de geotecnologias para a gestão de risco em acidentes radiológicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, T.A.A.; Marques, F.A.P.; Murta, Y.L., E-mail: tedsilva@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia da Informação

    2017-07-01

    Through the use of geotechnologies an important tool can be created for risk management in radiation accidents. With the use of the QGIS software (Las Palmas version), it is shown its applicability in situations of radiological emergency, as in the case of the accident with cesium-137 in Goiânia. The work analyses the risk of a possible accident with the deposit of cesium wastes that still remains in the region, aiming to protect the population with the best exit routes and forms of allocation of the residents.

  10. The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities P{sub f,i}, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for P{sub f,i} is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for P{sub f,i} is been used. (Author)

  11. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. The Impact of Fukushima Accidents on LWR Safety and the Nuclear Power Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sehgal, B. R.

    2014-01-01

    The history of the consideration of severe accidents (SA) safety begins really with WASH-1400 [1] initiated by USNRC in early 1970s. The WASH-1400 considered accidents of decreasing probability and increasing consequence.The accidents considered, occurred due to successive faults which lead to at least the melting of the core and a possible radioactivity release to the environment. The increasing consequence accidents would entail additional failures e.g., vessel failure, late containment failure, containment bypass, early containment failure etc. These additional failures would lead to larger releases of radioactivity and thus larger consequences for the public in the vicinity of the plant. WASH -1400 did not provide estimates of the costs for cleanup of the contaminated land area. Also there were no estimates of the economic costs involved in removal of the molten fuel and the decommissioning of the stricken plant. The emphasis in WASH-1400 was primarily with physical damage to the population in the vicinity of the plant and peripherally with the societal, social and economic costs of a severe accident in a large LWR plant

  13. Safety and risk questions following the nuclear incidents and accidents in Japan. Summary final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mildenberger, Oliver

    2015-03-01

    After the nuclear accidents in Japan, GRS has carried out in-depth investigations of the events. On the one hand, the accident sequences in the affected units have been analysed from various viewpoints. On the other hand, the transferability of the findings to German plants has been examined to possibly make recommendations for safety improvements. The accident sequences at Fukushima Daiichi have been traced with as much detail as possible based on all available information. Additional insights have been drawn from thermohydraulic analyses with the GRS code system ATHLET-CD/COCOSYS focusing on the events in units 2 and 3, e.g. with regard to core damage and the state of the containments in the first days of the accident sequence. In-depth investigations have also been carried out on topics such as natural external hazards, electrical power supply or organizational measures. In addition, methodological studies on further topics related with the accidents have been performed. Through a detailed analysis of the relevant data from the events in Japan, the basis for an in-depth examination of the transferability to German plants was created. It was found that an implementation of most of the insights gained from the investigations had already been initiated as part of the GRS information notice 2012/02. Further findings have been communicated to the federal government and introduced into other relevant bodies, e.g. the Nuclear Safety Standards Committee (KTA) or the Reactor Safety Commission (RSK).

  14. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  15. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  16. State-of-the-art report on accident analysis and risk analysis of reprocessing plants in European countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Yasushi

    1985-12-01

    This report summarizes informations obtained from America, England, France and FRG concerning methodology, computer code, fundamental data and calculational model on accident/risk analyses of spent fuel reprocessing plants. As a result, the followings are revealed. (1) The system analysis codes developed for reactor plants can be used for reprocessing plants with some code modification. (2) Calculational models and programs have been developed for accidental phenomenological analyses in FRG, but with insufficient data to prove them. (3) The release tree analysis codes developed in FRG are available to estimate radioactivity release amount/probability via off-gas/exhaustair lines in the case of accidents. (4) The computer codes developed in America for reactor-plant environmental transport/safety analyses of released radioactivity can be applied to reprocessing facilities. (author)

  17. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senne, Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

  18. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

  19. Memories of atomic fear: the construction of imaginary scientific risk from the speeches on large radiation accidents by media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, Maria da Conceição da Rocha

    2018-01-01

    The thesis reveals some aspects that concern the fear presented by a great part of society to the use of atomic energy. There are many studies pointing to the memories that refer to the terror of radioactive contamination or the destruction caused by atomic weapons, or even a controversial environmental view of the energy efficiency against climate warming. The object herein is the communication of scientific and technological risk, revealing the importance of journalism on the information given to a non specialized population. The premises concerning accidents caused by nuclear or radiological causes are that they have something beyond any other accident of technological causes when they are object of communication by mass media. The image of the bomb destruction can be a constant of terror on the apprehension of the risk in those accidents. French Discourse analysis is the theory support approached to search about the construction of the fear evolving the atomic energy, by analyzing some of the articles of mass communication media. The time selection, as a first cut, were the decades of 1980/1990, which were celebrated by the events of Chernobyl, worldwide, and the Cesium-137, in Goiania, Brazil. The same accidents are given a second cut on the celebration of their anniversaries, in cycles of up to 30 years, in a way of upgrading the production conditions of the discourses around them and their effects on the learning of society. The analysis was articulated between texts and images as discursive materials that have their own significations on the final effect of senses, which is, according to the methodology adopted, strongly affected by ideology. (author)

  20. Assessment of radiation-induced cancer risks from the Chernobyl fallout in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Servomaa, A.; Komppa, T.; Suomela, M.

    1997-01-01

    Application of detailed radiation risk models to populations affected by radiation doses from the Chernobyl fallout allows forecasting and estimation of the consequences of the accident in countries far from the place of the accident, and comparison of the model estimates with epidemiological observations in low-dose conditions among large populations. 14 refs, 11 figs, 1 tab

  1. Assessment of radiation-induced cancer risks from the Chernobyl fallout in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Servomaa, A; Komppa, T; Suomela, M [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-09-01

    Application of detailed radiation risk models to populations affected by radiation doses from the Chernobyl fallout allows forecasting and estimation of the consequences of the accident in countries far from the place of the accident, and comparison of the model estimates with epidemiological observations in low-dose conditions among large populations. 14 refs, 11 figs, 1 tab.

  2. Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of

  3. Risk assessment of DOE defense program packages in a beyond 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Bennion, J.S.; Moore, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive program is being conducted by the DOE to determine the risks related to the domestic transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear weapons. The program is designed to identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences which may exceed the 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment A major objective of this program being performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of Utah is to provide the DOE with the methodology and bases for evaluating highway transportation activities by DOE contractors. This paper describes the approach and the HITRA model which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and route specific data associated with the proposed transportation activity. The model is capable of providing detailed, location and time specific data for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE defense program materials shipments

  4. The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egidi, Demetrio; Foraboschi, Franco P.; Spadoni, Gigliola; Amendola, Aniello

    1995-01-01

    The paper describes the ARIPAR project aimed at the assessment of the major accident risks connected with storage, process and transportation of dangerous substances in the densely populated Ravenna area in Italy, which includes a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants and minor industries, essentially distributed around an important commercial port. Large quantities of dangerous goods are involved in various transportation forms connected with the industrial and commercial activity of the port. The project started by making a complete inventory of fixed installations and transportation activities capable of provoking major fire, explosion and toxic release events; then relevant accident scenarios were developed for the single hazard sources; probabilities were assigned to the events and consequences were evaluated; finally iso-risk contours and F-N diagrams were evaluated both for the single sources and for the overall area. This required the development of a particular methodology for analysis of area risk and of associated software packages which allowed examination of the relative importance of the different activities and typologies of materials involved. The methodological approach and the results have proved to be very useful for the priority-ranking of risk mitigating interventions and physical planning in a complex area

  5. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parco, Sergio; Vascotto, Fulvia; Simeone, Roberto; Visconti, Patrizia

    2015-01-01

    Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012-2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia) were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012-2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%), 59 blood splashes (37.34%), and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%). The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34.81%) versus nurses (25.94%) were due to incorrect recapping of needles after use. No cases of health care workers being infected with HCV, HBV, or HIV were identified. In 2013, the number of biological accidents

  6. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashim, Yusof bin [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang 26300 Kuantan, Pahang (Malaysia); Taha, Zahari bin [Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering, Malaysia Pahang, 26600 Pekan, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  7. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-01-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents

  8. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  9. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, Junichi [NUMO, Tokyo (Japan); Kawamura, Hideki [Obayashi Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Chapman, Neil [MCM Consulting, Baden (Switzerland)

    2013-07-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  10. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, Junichi; Kawamura, Hideki; Chapman, Neil

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  11. Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

    2016-01-01

    With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

  12. Nietrzeźwość a ryzyko zgonu w wypadku komunikacyjnym = Insobriety and the risk of death in traffic accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Lasota

    2015-06-01

    ryzyko wypadku komunikacyjnego. Nietrzeźwość wydaje się być dużym problemem wśród mężczyzn, stanowiących znaczącą liczbę ofiar wypadków komunikacyjnych.   Słowa kluczowe: uraz wielonarządowy, obrażenia wielonarządowe, alkohol etylowy, etanol, wypadek komunikacyjny.   Summary   Introduction. Traffic accidents are one of the biggest problems of civilization. It also has a large medical and social problem. Traffic accidents are the dominant cause of injury, the effects of which can lead to permanent health damage and even death. Another factor significantly influencing the increased risk of traffic accidents is insobriety. Aim of the study. Analysis of sobriety and its impact on mortality of victims of traffic accidents. Material and methods. Data were obtained from the Department of Forensic Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw. The analysis included data for the years 2009-2013. Group were subjected to analysis of traffic accident victims. The analysis included age, sex, initial cause of death, the result section, and the concentration of ethyl alcohol in biological material. Results. The number of victims of traffic accidents was considered short span downward trend. However, the largest group of victims of traffic accidents among all categories were pedestrians. It is in intoxicated pedestrians, reported significantly higher levels of alcohol compared to other intoxicated victims of traffic accidents. In the analyzed material it was also found between the concentration of alcohol dependence and the age of intoxicated victims of traffic accidents - the older the victim, the higher the alcohol concentration and a significantly higher concentration of alcohol in drunken intoxicated men than in women. Conclusions. Drunkenness road is one of the most important risk factors of traffic accidents with fatalities. We talk a lot about the intoxication of drivers, while equally important problem turns out to be drunken pedestrians, as shown by the results

  13. Risks and consequences of a hypothetical radiological accident on nuclear powered submarine traversing Suez canal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salama, Mohamed

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Egypt has unique problem in Suez Canal, although there are, a number of radioactive Cargos traveling through the Canal which includes new and spent reactor fuel and about 100 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride each year, under the regulatory control of the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority, there is, still a major problem concerning the passage of a number of nuclear powered vessels and submarines passing through the canal several times each year. The passage of these vessels and submarines has a political situation and not under the regulatory control of the Egyptian regulatory body. In spite of all precautions that are taken, in the nuclear powered vessels and submarines from the point of view of the rugged design of the reactor plant, multiple safety systems and operation with exceptional consideration for safety. Although of all of these a potential for a serious accident may does arise, even though, its probability is minimal. The Government of Egypt has established a national radiological emergency plan in order to cope with any radiological accidents, which may arise inside the country. Suez Canal lies in the north east of Egypt, and passes through a zone of considerable business, agriculture and industrial activities. The zone consists of three populated provinces, Port Said, Ismailia and Suez. According to Suez Canal authority regulations it is not allowed for these vessels and submarines to be landed in port. The motivation of the present paper was undertaken to discuss a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident aboard a nuclear powered submarine occurred during its passage in the Suez Canal. Such an accident will produce a radioactive cloud containing a number of radioactive materials. In such type of accidents contamination and causality zones, could extend to several kilometers. The different phases of the accident are going to be discussed and analyzed. The emergency actions taken during the accident phases are going to be presented. The

  14. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident