WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident risk forecasting

  1. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  2. Evaluating macroeconomic risk forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk forecasts can be tested. We find that the Pearson mode skewness outperforms the standard third-moment-based skewness as a measure of asymmetry. We consider problems of the tests likely to be encountered in practice and try to offer remedies where possible. In gene...

  3. Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫

    2003-01-01

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.

  4. Accidents, risks and consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although the accident at Chernobyl can be considered as the worst accident in the world, it could have been worse. Other far worse situations are considered, such as a nuclear weapon hitting a nuclear reactor. Indeed the accident at Chernobyl is compared to a nuclear weapon. The consequences of Chernobyl in terms of radiation levels are discussed. Although it is believed that a similar accident could not occur in the United Kingdom, that possibility is considered. It is suggested that emergency plans should be made for just such an eventuality. Even if Chernobyl could not happen in the UK, the effects of accidents are international. The way in which nuclear reactor accidents happen is explored, taking the 1957 Windscale fire, Three Mile Island and Chernobyl as examples. Reactor designs and accident scenarios are considered. The different reactor designs are listed. As well as the Chernobyl RBMK design it is suggested that the light water reactors also have undesirable features from the point of view of safety. (U.K.)

  5. The primal application research of figure assimilation theory in the nuclear accident consequence forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The deepgoing research of figure assimilation theory promotes many subjects' rapid development. This article outlooks the application of figure assimilation technique in the nuclear accident consequence forecast. The nuclear accident consequence forecast is a complicated system which needs rapidity and precision, so it is quiet difficult. but after the insertion of figure assimilation, it pushes on one step about the question. (authors)

  6. Risk and protection factors in fatal accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

    2010-03-01

    This paper aims at addressing the interest and appropriateness of performing accident severity analyses that are limited to fatal accident data. Two methodological issues are specifically discussed, namely the accident-size factors (the number of vehicles in the accident and their level of occupancy) and the comparability of the baseline risk. It is argued that - although these two issues are generally at play in accident severity analyses - their effects on, e.g., the estimation of survival probability, are exacerbated if the analysis is limited to fatal accident data. As a solution, it is recommended to control for these effects by (1) including accident-size indicators in the model, (2) focusing on different sub-groups of road-users while specifying the type of opponent in the model, so as to ensure that comparable baseline risks are worked with. These recommendations are applied in order to investigate risk and protection factors of car occupants involved in fatal accidents using data from a recently set up European Fatal Accident Investigation database (Reed and Morris, 2009). The results confirm that the estimated survival probability is affected by accident-size factors and by type of opponent. The car occupants' survival chances are negatively associated with their own age and that of their vehicle. The survival chances are also lower when seatbelt is not used. Front damage, as compared to other damaged car areas, appears to be associated with increased survival probability, but mostly in the case in which the accident opponent was another car. The interest of further investigating accident-size factors and opponent effects in fatal accidents is discussed. PMID:20159090

  7. Severe accident risks from external events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet.Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators.Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents.It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.

  8. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  9. Essays on financial forecasting and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Πλαστήρα, Σωτηρία Ν.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims at investigating the performance of empirical risk factors in financial forecasting and their assessment with respect to the associated risk. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay focuses on whether the empirical HML and SMB risk factors, along with the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the U.S. stock returns, compared to the performance of the most widely used financial variables. Our fi...

  10. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J (eds.) (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)); Agrenius, Lennart (ed.) (Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

  11. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  12. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  13. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company

  14. How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?

    OpenAIRE

    Peter F. Christoffersen; Francis X. Diebold

    1997-01-01

    It depends. If volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way, then volatility forecasts are useful for risk management; hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature. Volatility forecastability, however, varies with horizon, and different horizons are relevant in different applications. Existing assessments are plagued by the fact that they are joint assessments of volatility forecastability and an assumed model, and the results vary not only with the horizo...

  15. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Potočnik, Primož; Govekar, Edvard; Poredoš, Alojz; Thaler, Marko; Grabec, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledgeabout expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a fore...

  16. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. PMID:23928504

  17. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  18. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions......, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties...

  19. On the application of near accident data to risk analysis of major accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Major accidents are low frequency high consequence events which are not well supported by conventional statistical methods due to data scarcity. In the absence or shortage of major accident direct data, the use of partially related data of near accidentsaccident precursor data – has drawn much attention. In the present work, a methodology has been proposed based on hierarchical Bayesian analysis and accident precursor data to risk analysis of major accidents. While hierarchical Bayesian analysis facilitates incorporation of generic data into the analysis, the dependency and interaction between accident and near accident data can be encoded via a multinomial likelihood function. We applied the proposed methodology to risk analysis of offshore blowouts and demonstrated its outperformance compared to conventional approaches. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk analysis is applied to model major accidents. • Two-stage Bayesian updating is used to generate informative distributions. • Accident precursor data are used to develop likelihood function. • A multinomial likelihood function is introduced to model dependencies among data

  20. Economic risks of nuclear power reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which occur during US LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models have been developed for potential use by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost/benefit analyses for decision-making purposes. The new onsite cost models estimate societal losses from power production cost increases, plant capital losses, plant decontamination costs, and plant repair costs which may be incurred after LWR operational events. Early decommissioning costs, plant worker health impact costs, electric utility business costs, nuclear power industry costs, and litigation costs are also addressed. The newly developed offsite economic consequence models estimate The costs of post-accident population protective measures and public health impacts. The costs of population evacuation and temporary relocation, agricultural product disposal, land and property decontamination, and land interdiction are included in the economic models for population protective measures. Costs of health impacts and medical care costs are also included in the models

  1. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  2. Water Flow Forecasting and River Simulation for Flood Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Merkurjeva, G

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models are analysed. An advanced river flood forecasting and modelling approach developed within the ongoing project INFROM is described. It provides an integrated procedure for river flow forecasting and simulation advanced by integration of different models for improving predictions of th...

  3. Avalanche risk in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Techel

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In Switzerland, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occurs during recreational activities. Risk analysis studies mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk, i.e. how many and where people are recreating. We compared the accident data (backcountry touring with reports from two social media mountaineering networks – bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. On these websites, users reported more than 15 000 backcountry tours during the five winters 2009/2010 to 2013/2014. We noted similar patterns in avalanche accident data and user data like demographics of recreationists, distribution of the day of the week (weekday vs. weekend or weather conditions (fine vs. poor weather. However, we also found differences such as the avalanche danger conditions on days with activities and accidents, but also the geographic distribution. While backcountry activities are concentrated in proximity to the main population centres in the West and North of the Swiss Alps, a large proportion of the severe avalanche accidents occurred in the inner-alpine, more continental regions with frequently unfavorably snowpack structure. This suggests that even greater emphasis should be put on the type of avalanche problem in avalanche education and avalanche forecasting to increase the safety of backcountry recreationists.

  4. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  5. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values......-at-Risk are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting out-of-sample forecasts based on the simulations suggests that the GARCH method with implied volatility as explanatory variable captures the risk structure well....

  6. Smoothing strategies combined with ARIMA and neural networks to improve the forecasting of traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barba, Lida; Rodríguez, Nibaldo; Montt, Cecilia

    2014-01-01

    Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0:26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1:12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15:51%. PMID:25243200

  7. Smoothing Strategies Combined with ARIMA and Neural Networks to Improve the Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Barba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD. In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0 : 26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1 : 12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15 : 51%.

  8. Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThe Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk esti

  9. The nuclear accident risk: a territorial approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How many people live in the vicinity of French nuclear power stations? Recent events - notably in Japan, but also in France - highlight the urgent need to be able to predict the possible effects of a nuclear accident on surrounding territories. Here, Ambroise Pascal identifies two key criteria for such an estimation: residential density and land use. (author)

  10. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Lelieveld, J.; KUNKEL, D.; M. G. Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous ...

  11. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  12. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed on an integrated assessment of probabilistic cancer mortality risks due to possible accidental releases from the European nuclear power plants. For each of the European nuclear power plants the prob...

  13. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yan-qun; Zeng, Xiao-hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  14. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. PMID:21612010

  15. On the nature of risk and accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By consensus, 'errors of omission' and 'errors of commission' have their origin in the human rather than in the technological parts of the system. It has therefore been customary to base explanations on the available psychological 'error models', which mostly have been of the human information processing and internal 'error mechanisms' type. Yet the fact that an 'error of commission' necessarily involves a human action does not mean that the explanation, hence the modelling, must be confined to human functions - cognitive or otherwise. On the contrary, the experience from accident analyses as well as state-of-the-art HRA approaches all emphasize that action failures reflect the impact of the working conditions more than any specific mechanism'. This corresponds to a change in accident models from sequential, over epidemiological, to systemic. According to the latter, action failures - or action error modes - should be seen as the irregular, but not totally random, outcome of the system's performance variability rather than as specific effects of specific causes. This change in perspective have significant consequences for the ways in which action error modes are modelled and classified, and therefore also for the methods that can be used for prediction. (author)

  16. Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

    OpenAIRE

    Dias, Ana Sofia Fidalgo

    2012-01-01

    Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvemen...

  17. A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models

    OpenAIRE

    Lisiane Priscila Roldão Selau; José Luis Duarte Ribeiro

    2011-01-01

    Due to the recent growth in the consumer credit market and the consequent increase in default indices, companies are seeking to improve their credit analysis by incorporating objective procedures. Multivariate techniques have been used as an alternative to construct quantitative models for credit forecast. These techniques are based on consumer profile data and allow the identification of standards concerning default behavior. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting credit risk by u...

  18. Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; McAleer, Michael; Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThe Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realised losses exceed the est...

  19. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  20. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

  1. Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO2-emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

  2. Forecasting risk of bankruptcy for machine-building plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telipenko, E.; Zakharova, A.; Sopova, Svetlana

    2015-09-01

    The paper presents an overview of well-known bankruptcy risk forecasting models, elaborated as by Russian so by foreign authors, on the basis of the data about financial and business activities of the biggest machine-building Russian plants. The authors substantiate and confirm appropriateness of a fuzzy set model to the problem of bankruptcy risk forecasting. This model is worked out on the basis of 10 most important factors, which have the greatest influence on sales proceeds as the main financial source for a production plant.

  3. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  4. Forecasting individual breast cancer risk using plasma metabolomics and biocontours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bro, Rasmus; Kamstrup-Nielsen, Maja Hermann; Engelsen, Søren Balling;

    2015-01-01

    in a subject 2–5 years after the sample is taken with sensitivity and specificity well above 80 %. The model was built on data obtained in 1993–1996 and tested on persons sampled a year later in 1997. Metabolic forecasting of cancer by biocontours opens new possibilities for early prediction of individual...... by chemometric data fusion. It was possible to create a biocontour, which we define as a complex pattern of relevant biological and phenotypic information. While single markers or known risk factors have close to no predictive value, the developed biocontour provides a forecast which, several years before...

  5. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Lelieveld, J.; KUNKEL, D.; M. G. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of ma...

  6. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry,the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry.They are respectively marketing risks,natural risks,information risks and production risks.In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry,countermeasures are proposed in the research.The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry.The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry,including four aspects.They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry;constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry;establishing information analysis and decision-making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems.The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry.The fourth is to further perfect the risk-defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan.The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence.The sixth is to accelerate the development of intermediate agents to improve the organization degrees.And the last one is to put emphasis on the tech-training courses on banana planting and production to improve the technical quality of banana industry.

  7. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  8. Nuclear power: accident probabilities, risks, and benefits. A bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a selected listing of 396 documents pertaining to nuclear accident probability and nuclear risk. Because of the attention focused on these concepts by the recent (August 1974) publication of the draft of WASH-1400, ''Reactor Safety Study,'' it is intended that this bibliography make conveniently available the existence of relevant literature on these concepts. Such an awareness will enhance an understanding of probability and risk as applied to nuclear power plants and is essential to their further development and/or application. This bibliography includes first a listing of the selected documents with abstracts and keywords, followed by three indexes: (1) keyword, (2) author, and (3) permuted title

  9. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  10. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  11. Students’ driving behaviour as a risk factor of road accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zografakis-Sfakianakis M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionRoad accidents are considered to be a public health problem since they have been massively adverse consequences in demography. Since there is a human loss, especially of young people, the problem should be investigated extensively. The driving behaviour (either alone or in combination with other factors is the most important cause of road accidents for 80-90%.Purpose Investigating students’ driving behaviour (culture of a technological educational institute and how positively or negatively they take actions, preventing themselves of accidents.Material and Method400 questionnaires were supplemented. The questionnaire was consisted of 18 closed type questions, created by the research group using bibliographical sources. The data were analyzed using the x2 test, in all cases, statistical significant was considered the two-tailed P<0,05.Results A 21,7% of students has driven the previous 7 days having consumed alcohol while 57% has been passengers. Men’s alcohol consumption has showed increased infringement (93,3% in relation to women (6,7%. (x2=53,983; p <0,001. In other crucial provisions of road traffic regulation, violation was found which exceeds 50% (speeding, wrong lane driving, etc.. The highest percentage, without a safety belt or a helmet -never or and rarely - are male drivers (x2=12,074; P=0,017.It was found that a particularly large percentage of students (61% were involved in a traffic accident. From those, who have been involved in a traffic accident, as drivers (97 students, as guilty pleaded 26,8%, while non-guilty 73,2%. Statistically males were a high majority (x2=23,425; p <0,001. The traffic accident occurred during their student years in percentage of 47,5%. 18,8% of students have been transferred to hospital as a casualty of a traffic accident. ConclusionIt is confirmed once again that the concepts of 'dangerous driving behaviour" and "young" are compatible. Male students have increased risk behaviour, mainly

  12. A Method for Forecasting Credit Risk of Global Device Purchasing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    With the development of the Internet and E-commerce, enterprises can achieve global device purchasing with a good cost performance. But the credit risk is the key factor in selecting a device provider. Credit risk involves many qualitative and quantitative factors. We construct a multi-agent credit rating model system based on CSCW, which organically combines the people's aptitude and the capability of machines. Enterprises can use this credit rating system for forecasting and defeating the credit risk of global device purchasing.

  13. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants: Appendices A, B, and C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two or the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide release and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. Volume 2 of this report contains three appendices, providing greater detail on the methods used, an example risk calculation, and more detailed discussion of particular technical issues found important in the risk studies

  14. Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Audrino

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We provide empirical evidence of volatility forecasting in relation to asymmetries present in the dynamics of both return and volatility processes. Using recently-developed methodologies to detect jumps from high frequency price data, we estimate the size of positive and negative jumps and propose a methodology to estimate the size of jumps in the quadratic variation. The leverage effect is separated into continuous and discontinuous effects, and past volatility is separated into “good” and “bad”, as well as into continuous and discontinuous risks. Using a long history of the S & P500 price index, we find that the continuous leverage effect lasts about one week, while the discontinuous leverage effect disappears after one day. “Good” and “bad” continuous risks both characterize the volatility persistence, while “bad” jump risk is much more informative than “good” jump risk in forecasting future volatility. The volatility forecasting model proposed is able to capture many empirical stylized facts while still remaining parsimonious in terms of the number of parameters to be estimated.

  15. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  16. A risk forecasting process for nanostructured materials, and nanomanufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesner, Mark R.; Bottero, Jean-Yves

    2011-09-01

    Nanomaterials exhibit novel properties that enable new applications ranging from molecular electronics to energy production. Proactive consideration of the potential impacts on human health and the environment resulting from nanomaterial production and use requires methods for forecasting risk associated with of these novel materials. However, the potential variety of nanomaterials is virtually infinite and a case-by-case analysis of the risks these materials may pose is not possible. The challenge of forecasting risk for a broad number of materials is further complicated by large degrees of uncertainty concerning production amounts, the characteristics and uses of these materials, exposure pathways, and a scarcity of data concerning the relationship between nanomaterial characteristics and their effects on organisms and ecosystems. A traditional risk assessment on nanomaterials is therefore not possible at this time. In its place, an evolving process is needed for analyzing the risks associated with emerging nanomaterials-related industries. In this communication, we propose that such a process should include the following six key features: (1) the ability to generate forecasts and associated levels of uncertainty for questions of immediate concern; (2) a consideration of all pertinent sources of nanomaterials; (3) an inclusive consideration of the impacts of activities stemming from nanomaterial use and production that extends beyond the boundaries of toxicology and include full life cycle impacts; (4) the ability to adapt and update risk forecasts as new information becomes available; (5) feedback to improve information gathering; and (6) feedback to improve nanomaterial design. Feature #6 implies that the potential risks of nanomaterials must ultimately be determined as a function of fundamental, quantifiable properties of nanomaterials, so that when these properties are observed in a new material, they can be recognized as indicators of risk. Thus, the

  17. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  18. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  19. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  20. International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractA risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median

  1. Risk assessment of aircraft accidents anywhere near an airport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work analyzes the more suitable areas to build new facilities, taking into account the conditions imposed by an airport located nearby. Initially, it describes the major characteristics of the airport. Then, the restrictions imposed to ensure the normal operation of the aircraft are analyzed. Following, there is a summary of the evolution of studies of aircraft accidents at nuclear facilities. In the second part, three models of aircraft crash probabilities are presented, all of them developed in the U.S.A, each with an increasing level of complexity in modeling the likelihood of accidents. The first model is the 'STD-3014' Department of Energy (DOE), the second is the 'ACRAM'(Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology) prepared by the 'Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory'(LLNL) and finally the more advanced 'ACRP-3', produced by the 'Transportation Research Board'. The results obtained with the three models establish that the risks imposed on the airport vicinity, remain low due to the improvement and innovation in the aircraft's safety, reducing the risk margin for the location of new nuclear facilities near an airport. (author)

  2. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  3. Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United State. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two of the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide releases and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. This report, Volume 3, contains two appendices. Appendix D summarizes comments received, and staff responses, on the first (February 1987) draft of NUREG-1150. Appendix E provides a similar summary of comments and responses, but for the second (June 1989) version of the report

  4. A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisiane Priscila Roldão Selau

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the recent growth in the consumer credit market and the consequent increase in default indices, companies are seeking to improve their credit analysis by incorporating objective procedures. Multivariate techniques have been used as an alternative to construct quantitative models for credit forecast. These techniques are based on consumer profile data and allow the identification of standards concerning default behavior. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting credit risk by using three multivariate techniques: discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks. The proposed method (deemed the CRF Model consists of six steps and is illustrated by means of a real application. An important contribution of this paper is the organization of the methodological procedures and the discussion of the decisions that should be made during the application of the model. The feasibility of the approach proposed was tested in a program for granting credit offered by a network of pharmacies. The use of the models for forecasting credit risk greatly reduces the subjectivity of the analysis, by establishing a standardized procedure that speeds up and qualifies credit analysis

  5. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The computerized system NARIS (Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analyses of the distribution of the health effects. The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  6. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Christian Kaiser

    2012-01-01

    Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 4; 62) severe accidents am...

  7. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2015-01-01

    on DORA's approach, this study investigated the implementation of long forecast horizon using an ensemble forecast from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The uncertainty of the prediction is characterized by an ensemble of 25 forecast scenarios. According to the status of the UDS......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast...... and the forecasted runoff volumes, the objectives for the control strategies might vary from optimization of water volumes to reduction of CSO risk. Thus different modes are implemented in DORA-LF (Long Forecast) in order to adjust the control strategies to the situations. In order to handle the long forecast...

  8. International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord

    OpenAIRE

    McAleer, Michael; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    textabstractA risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. Such a risk management strategy is robust to the GFC in the sense that, while maintaining the same risk management strategy bef...

  9. International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord

    OpenAIRE

    McAleer, Michael; Jimenez-Martín, Juan-Angel; Pérez Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. Such a risk management strategy is robust to the GFC in the sense that, while maintaining the same risk management strategy before, during ...

  10. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  11. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  12. Cerebrovascular accidents in sickle cell disease: rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohene-Frempong, K; Weiner, S J; Sleeper, L A; Miller, S T; Embury, S; Moohr, J W; Wethers, D L; Pegelow, C H; Gill, F M

    1998-01-01

    Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) is a major complication of sickle cell disease. The incidence and mortality of and risk factors for CVA in sickle cell disease patients in the United States have been reported only in small patient samples. The Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease collected clinical data on 4,082 sickle cell disease patients enrolled from 1978 to 1988. Patients were followed for an average of 5.2 +/- 2.0 years. Age-specific prevalence and incidence rates of CVA in patients with the common genotypes of sickle cell disease were determined, and the effects of hematologic and clinical events on the risk of CVA were analyzed. The highest rates of prevalence of CVA (4.01%) and incidence (0.61 per 100 patient-years) were in sickle cell anemia (SS) patients, but CVA occurred in all common genotypes. The incidence of infarctive CVA was lowest in SS patients 20 to 29 years of age and higher in children and older patients. Conversely, the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke in SS patients was highest among patients aged 20 to 29 years. Across all ages the mortality rate was 26% in the 2 weeks after hemorrhagic stroke. No deaths occurred after infarctive stroke. Risk factors for infarctive stroke included prior transient ischemic attack, low steady-state hemoglobin concentration and rate of and recent episode of acute chest syndrome, and elevated systolic blood pressure. Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with low steady-state hemoglobin and high leukocyte count.

  13. Forecast Skill and Farmers' Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Paz, J.; Breuer, N.E.; Broad, K.; Ingram, K.T.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2010-01-01

    During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame se

  14. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  15. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  16. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  17. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  18. A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  19. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research; Rumyantseva, G.M.; Martyvshov, A.N. [The Serbsky Research Institute, Moscow, (Russian Federation)

    1993-10-01

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km{sup 2}. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs.

  20. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km2. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs

  1. Forecast performance of implied volatility and the impact of the volatility risk premium

    OpenAIRE

    Ralf Becker; Adam Clements; Christopher Coleman-Fenn

    2009-01-01

    Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performance of econometric models based on time-series data and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the preferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved. Implied volatilities are risk-neutral forecasts of spot volatility, whereas time-series models are estimated on risk-adjusted or real world data of the underlying. Recent...

  2. Have US Legislatures Fully Considered Causal Factors in Assigning Liability for Inherent Risk Accidents?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence J. Centner

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The public’s dissatisfaction with American tort rules has led US state legislatures to enact more than 120 statutes for assigning liability for accident losses. Many of these statutes address the liability of accidents involving inherent risks of activities where neither the activity provider nor injured participant was negligent. Due to business complaints about high insurance costs, legislatures decided that participants ought to bear the costs arising from inherent risk accidents. Yet, causal factors associated with sport activities may support an alternative liability rule to maximize social welfare. Because inherent risk statutes lead to increased activity levels, they are accompanied by increased accident costs. Factors causing incorrect liability results may be compared to offer a recommendation for a liability regime for inherent risk accidents.

  3. Predicting cycling accident risk in Brussels: a spatial case-control approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbulcke, Grégory; Thomas, Isabelle; Int Panis, Luc

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at predicting cycling accident risk for an entire network and identifying how road infrastructure influences cycling safety in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium). A spatial Bayesian modelling approach is proposed using a binary dependent variable (accident, no accident at location i) constructed from a case-control strategy. Control sites are sampled along the 'bikeable' road network in function of the potential bicycle traffic transiting in each ward. Risk factors are limited to infrastructure, traffic and environmental characteristics. Results suggest that a high risk is statistically associated with the presence of on-road tram tracks, bridges without cycling facility, complex intersections, proximity to shopping centres or garages, and busy van and truck traffic. Cycle facilities built at intersections and parked vehicles located next to separated cycle facilities are also associated with an increased risk, whereas contraflow cycling is associated with a reduced risk. The cycling accident risk is far from being negligible in points where there is actually no reported cycling accident but where they are yet expected to occur. Hence, mapping predicted accident risks provides planners and policy makers with a useful tool for accurately locating places with a high potential risk even before accidents actually happen. This also provides comprehensible information for orienting cyclists to the safest routes in Brussels.

  4. Assessment of radiation risk as a part of ecological risk in the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The purpose of the work: foundation for principles of planning protection measures, that provide safety for population activity on the territories, contaminated with radio-nuclides, by analysing radio-chemical situation, using risk assessment methods. Problems set in the work: -) Analyses of radiation risk in the structure of ecological risk in the territory of the Republic of Belarus after the Chernobyl accident; -) Investigation of chemical risk level, connected with air pollution from stationary objects exhausts, for the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides; -) Modelling of the combined impact of ionising radiation and chemical carcinogen for the possible ecological risk assessment; -) Involving modern geo informational systems in the radio-ecological risk assessment process; -) Foundation for the assessment methodology of the complex influence of negative factors in the territories, contaminated with Chernobyl radio-nuclides. The problems are solved by carrying out specific experiments and by analysing published and own data on radioactive and chemical contamination of some regions of Belarus. Major findings: Radiation input to the really registered carcinogens is estimated to app. 10 %. In case of multiple factors influence of different contaminators of industrial and natural origin (i.e. radiation is not the only negative factor), ignorance of non-radiation origin factors may seriously distort estimation of radiation risk, when it is related to the registered effects. Radiation should be in no way treated as the major factor of real ecological risk in Belarus. Method for comparative analysis of territories' ecological risk level is developed and implemented. A GIS segment, that includes subsystem of the real and forecasted radio-ecological mapping, is created. The authors grounded the experimental model for study the complex influence of radioactive and non-radioactive (chemical carcinogen) factors. Revealed dependencies 'dose

  5. Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Casarin, Roberto; Chang, Chia-Lin; Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel; McAleer, Michael; Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio

    2011-01-01

    It is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or as combinations, to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous ...

  6. Guidelines for Exposure Assessment in Health Risk Studies Following a Nuclear Reactor Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Bouville, André; Linet, Martha S.; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Simon, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Worldwide concerns regarding health effects after the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents indicate a clear need to identify short- and long-term health impacts that might result from accidents in the future. Fundamental to addressing this problem are reliable and accurate radiation dose estimates for the affected populations. The available guidance for activities following nuclear accidents is limited with regard to strategies for dose assessment in health risk s...

  7. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  8. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  9. Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Casarin (Roberto); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); M.J. McAleer (Michael); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIt is well known that the Basel II Accord requires banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) to communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models, whether individually or

  10. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed

  11. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed o

  12. Expert forecast on emerging biological risks related to occupational safety and health

    OpenAIRE

    Brun, Emmanuelle

    2007-01-01

    This report contains a forecast of emerging biological risks related to occupational safety and health (OSH) based on an expert survey and a literature review. The Agency also worked on forecasts and literature reviews on physical, chemical, and psychosocial risks in order to paint as full a picture as possible of the potential emerging risks in the world of work. These results are linked to other Risk Observatory work and aims to examine OSH trends in Europe and to anticipa...

  13. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  14. The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts. (author)

  15. [Risk factors for accidents during sports while serving in German armed forces].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundlach, N; Sammito, S; Böckelmann, I

    2012-03-01

    In the German Armed Forces sports activities should bring the benefits of good health and trained fitness which are the hallmarks of sportsmen. In order to achieve this aim it is important to avoid accidents which negate the benefit of sports. Until today there appear to be no studies in existence which demonstrate the risk factors of sports activities undertaken while in military service. Equivalent studies on civilian sport activities are scarcely comparable. To find out risk factors for accidents with any period of recovery we followed sports accidents while on duty in a German barracks with 4,300 soldiers over a two-year period. Additionally we asked about the time needed for recovery from each accident, parameters of lifestyle, the body mass index and the possibility of a nightshift before each accident. We examined a minimum of 410 accidents. We found associations between the accidents studied and particular risk factors, including doing sports more than two times a week, being active in a fitness or sports club, having the accident together with another sportsman and doing a nightshift before the day of the accident. Bad ground conditions contributed to a large number of accidents. A body mass index of 25 and higher had a significantly prolonged time for recovery. To avoid accidents, sport and ground conditions should be adapted to each other. In addition, overweight people are not only compromised for cardiovascular and neurological diseases but also have a higher risk of needing a prolonged time for recovery, thus it is important that overweight should be avoided and not only just be treated. PMID:22422284

  16. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen;

    2016-01-01

    overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy....../oscillating in-sewer measurements. Radar rainfall forecasts as model inputs yield considerably lower runoff forecast skills than “perfect” gauge-based rainfall observations (ex-post hindcasting). Nevertheless, the stochastic grey-box models clearly outperform benchmark forecast models based on exponential......This article demonstrates the incorporation of stochastic grey-box models for urban runoff forecasting into a full-scale, system-wide control setup where setpoints are dynamically optimized considering forecast uncertainty and sensitivity of overflow locations in order to reduce combined sewer...

  17. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  18. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  19. Nonparametric risk bounds for time-series forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel McDonald; Cosma Shalizi; Mark Schervish

    2012-01-01

    We derive generalization error bounds -- bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions -- for traditional time series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These bounds allow forecasters to select among competing models and to guarantee that with high probability, their chosen model will perform well without making strong assumptions about the data ...

  20. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Executive summary: main report. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the objectives and organization of the reactor safety study; the basic concepts of risk; the nature of nuclear power plant accidents; risk assessment methodology; reactor accident risk; and comparison of nuclear risks to other societal risks.

  1. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, Finn

    1996-01-01

    and consequent changes in job content. It was hypothesized that the combined effect of these factors might lead accident risks, both non-specific (aggregated) and specific (by kind), to increase with age. Accident risk ratios (ARRs), however, proved to be higher for younger workers than older ones, in both...... the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological......This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s...

  2. Risk and resilience factors of persons exposed to accidents

    OpenAIRE

    HERTA, DANA – CRISTINA; BRÎNDAS, PAULA; TRIFU, RALUCA; COZMAN, DOINA

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims Resilience encompasses factors promoting effective functioning in the context of adversity. Data regarding resilience in the wake of accidental trauma is still scarce. The aim of the current study is to comparatively assess adaptive, life – promoting factors in persons exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. persons exposed to other types of accidents, and to identify psychological factors of resilience and vulnerability in this context of trauma exposure. Methods We ...

  3. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs

  4. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study. RESULTS: Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  5. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  6. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

  7. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2015-01-01

    distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  8. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

  9. Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: Lessons Learned and Future Actions from the Risk Perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety

  10. Accident risk and factors regarding non-motorised road users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerholm, Niels; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2015-01-01

    Almost half of all traffic fatalities worldwide are non-motorised road users (NMRUs). In Denmark, the number has increased with about 30%. NMRUs consist of about 63% of the injured in the Danish traffic. Much has been done to reduce the number of injured NMRUs with counterparts, while little effort...... is put into the reduction of the vast majority of the accidents, NMRU single accidents, which are about 90% of all injured NMRUs. There are no efficient tools available to reduce this number. A significantly better designed, maintained, and illuminated road network would most likely help. However......, that is expensive and not possible for most road authorities. Despite this, the challenges with NMRUs in single accidents need more attention, if road safety is to be improved. The situation in Denmark is more than likely the case in many other countries as well; although the documentation is scarce....

  11. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P

    2005-03-01

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  12. The risk of a major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, occurred on 11 March 2011. This nuclear disaster, the third on such a scale, left a lasting mark in the minds of hundreds of millions of people. Much as Three Mile Island or Chernobyl, yet another place will be permanently associated with a nuclear power plant which went out of control. Fukushima Daiichi revived the issue of the hazards of civil nuclear power, stirring up all the associated passion and emotion. The whole of this paper is devoted to the risk of a major nuclear accident. By this we mean a failure initiating core meltdown, a situation in which the fuel rods melt and mix with the metal in their cladding. Such accidents are classified as at least level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Three Mile Island accident, which occurred in 1979 in the United States, reached this level of severity. The explosion of reactor 4 at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine in 1986 and the recent accident in Japan were classified as class 7, the highest grade on this logarithmic scale. The main difference between the top two levels and level 5 relates to a significant or major release of radioactive material to the environment. In the event of a level-5 accident, damage is restricted to the inside of the plant, whereas, in the case of level-7 accidents, huge areas of land, above or below the surface, and/or sea may be contaminated. Before the meltdown of reactors 1, 2 and 3 at Fukushima Daiichi, eight major accidents affecting nuclear power plants had occurred worldwide. This is a high figure compared with the one calculated by the experts. Observations in the field do not appear to fit the results of the probabilistic models of nuclear accidents produced since the 1970's. Oddly enough the number of major accidents is closer to the risk as perceived by the general public. In general we tend to overestimate any risk relating to rare, fearsome accidents. What are we to make of this divergence? How are we to reconcile

  13. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low lighting conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ivan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Besides other non-behavioural factors, the low lighting conditions significantly influence the frequency of the traffic accidents in the urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low lighting conditions on the traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca. The dependence degree between lighting and the number of traffic accidents was analyzed by the Pearson's correlation and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the lighting conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injured persons rate for the 0.5 km2 equally-sized areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results have shown a strong linear dependence between the low lighting conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accidents occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions, at the city entrances-exits, which represent also vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low lighting and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence enabled us to identify the high traffic accident risk areas in the city of Cluj-Napoca.

  14. Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yannis, George; Golias, John; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends. PMID:17729136

  15. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  16. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.......This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...... the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road...

  17. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer.

  18. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: christine.hendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Lowry, Gregory V., E-mail: glowry@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Unrine, Jason M., E-mail: jason.unrine@uky.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Agricultural Science Center, Lexington, KY 40546 (United States); Wiesner, Mark R., E-mail: wiesner@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall PO Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  19. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  20. Risk of low back pain in people admitted to hospital for traffic accidents and falls.

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, K; Cruddas, M.; Coggon, D.

    1992-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to assess the risk of back symptoms in people admitted to hospital because of traffic accidents and falls. DESIGN--The study was a cross sectional survey with information collected by postal questionnaire. Main outcome measures were associations between hospital admission for a traffic accident or fall and reported first onset of back symptoms at the same age and at later ages. SETTING--General practices in seven towns and one rural district. SUBJECTS--1172 men an...

  1. Risks of insufficient information communication during the post-accident period of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The modified psychological climate and increased social-psychological pressure in the population, affected as a result of the Chernobyl accident, emerged partially because of insufficient information provided to the population with respect to the radiation and ecological conditions. Such situation resulted in development of chronic psychological stress in the majority of the population residing on the affected areas. The post-accidental stress, which appeared in many people, is characterized by its extraordinary stability. Up to 74% of the affected population were subjected to stress. In 1986 the depressing condition of anxiety was observed in 50% of those examined. By 1998 this number increased up to 76%. Aggravation of health condition still remains in the center of anxiety reasons for the majority of those examined, when in the areas contaminated greater the number of those anxious is much higher than in others. Besides, the urban population is more concerned in unsatisfactory solution of the problem of liquidation of the Chernobyl accident consequences, than village inhabitants (88,5 and 79,70/o accordingly). Noteworthy, that 43% of the urban population and only 25,20/6 of the village settlers is concerned in small efficiency of rehabilitation activities on the radioactive contaminated territories. Respondents-women 86,1%) are more anxious than men 84,2%). Besides, almost three quarters of the respondents 74,5%) for last three years became more anxious for their future and future of their children, which leads to greater worries. At the same time it is necessary to take into account, that 7 of the respondents expressed apathy and indifference to everything, and at 75% have the feeling of hopelessness. Another negative tendency exposed in the population, affected by the Chernobyl accident is the reduction of trust to the authorities and governmental bodies, reduction of satisfaction by the activity of local authorities. Only 60,6% of the interrogated

  2. Accident risks in nuclear facilities (a bibliography with abstracts). Period covered: 1964--August 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The bibliography presents risk analysis and hazards evaluation of the design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities including the risk and hazards of transporting radioactive materials to and from these facilities. Radiological calculations for environmental effects of nuclear accidents are included. (Contains 131 abstracts)

  3. Quantifying the Influence of Social Characteristics on Accident and Injuries Risk: A Comparative Study Between Motorcyclists and Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Olesen, Morten N.; Hels, Tove

    2011-01-01

    as the control group. The available data for the regression consisted of accident and injury data for motorcyclists and car owners in the period of interest as well the social and demographic parameters: age, gender, income, educational level and family status. The odds ratio calculations showed that the risk....... In this analysis we establish relationships between social and demographic characteristics and the probability of being in an accident and being injured in an accident. Logistic regression was applied to both motorcyclists and car drivers with the purpose of calculating the odds ratio with the car drivers...... of being in an accident or in an injury accident decreased with age, educational level, and income. Furthermore, the risk of being in an accident was 1.72 to 1.96 times higher and the risk of being in an injury accident was 1.38 to 1.44 times higher for men compared to women. For motorcyclists compared...

  4. Comparison of accident risks in different energy systems: Comments from Russian specialists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many articles on accident risk analysis of different energy systems in comparison with nuclear power share certain stereotypical features. For example: When assessing the risks associated with the operation of such facilities, they ignore the effects of the upgrading of RBMK reactors which was carried out after the Chernobyl accident. In their integrated assessment of the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident they use numerous studies which frequently contain unreliable source data and unfounded predictions, and they ignore many socio-political factors which considerably increased the damage caused by the accident. Unfortunately, the study in question, despite its topicality and originality of approach, is also not without such shortcomings. After the Chernobyl accident, reconstruction and safety enhancement measures were implemented at nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors which were without precedent in world practice and have continued to this day. According to probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) carried out with the assistance of international experts, the probability of serious accidents at RBMKs has decreased by a factor of two or more thanks to the above mentioned measures. The mean weighted safety index for all operational RBMK reactors is 10-4 l/year and is decreasing thanks to the ongoing and planned reconstruction of all units. All operational nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors are thus on a par with the successfully operating Soviet WWERs and western boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs), and satisfy the IAEA recommendations regarding the risk level of older generation nuclear power plants. The authors of the IAEA Bulletin article give estimates of the remote radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident which range from an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 fatal cases of radiation-induced cancer, and the literature on the subject contains even more extreme estimates. However, our 14 years' experience

  5. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the ''average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs

  6. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  7. Reflection of risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At the third symposium corresponding to the Fukushima accident held by the Japan Health Physics Society (JHPS) in December 2011, Youth Researcher's Association of JHPS presented 'risk communication in 9 months after Fukushima accident'. Focusing on the presentation, this article summarized social response of radiation risk in 9 months and activities of 'Q and A site that provides public with questions and answers related to radiation and daily life' by Society members as radiation protection experts after the Fukushima accident. The author raised some two problems related with (1) what and how should be 'judgments of best experts' reflecting the BSE case as 'trans-science' problem and (2) what's 'recommendation/standards document to be referred to' harmonizing with trend of international standards. Risk communication network should be not only between 'experts' and 'public' but also including international organizations. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

  9. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  10. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A

    2007-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially mis-specified. In this paper, we focus on mis-specification in the dynamics and the dimension of the HMM. We consider both discrete and continuous state HMMs. The differences are substantial. Underestimating the number of discrete states has an ec...

  11. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  12. Risk factors for traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis: a case-reference study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na Ayuthya, R S; Böhning, D

    1997-12-01

    It was aimed to study injures from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis and identify patients' characteristics as well as to search for risk factors for traffic accidents leading to hospitalization. The study included 346 in-patient cases suffering injuries from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis. The patients were recruited during a period of 4 months of the year 1992 from five hospitals in various areas of Bangkok which were judged to be representative for Bangkok Metropolis. Using the method of case-reference, relative risk could be estimated for various exposure factors. Most of the patients drove a motorcycle, had their license for only a short period, and drove more than 5 hours a day. About one third of the patients were under the influence of alcohol. The traffic accident characteristics were that they occurred mainly at night time with the peak between 21.00 and 24.00 hours. About 90% of all traffic accidents occurred during the rainy season and most of them occurred near to road junctions. Reference data was available for some variables and the following risk group could be identified: RR (male-age 20-24) = 17.06 (8.8-33.9), RR (single-marital status) = 2.25 (1.7-3.1), RR (primary-education) = 6.2 (2.9-12.6), RR (unskilled labourer-occupation) = 3.91 (2.7-5.9), RR (salesperson-occupation) = 3.34 (2.2-5.0). PMID:9656420

  13. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milczarek, M.; Brun, E.; Houtman, I.; Goudswaard, A.; Evers, M.; Bovenkamp, M. van de; Roskams, N.; Op de Beeck, R.; Pahkin, K.; Berthet, M.; Morvan, E.; Kuhn, K.; Kaluza, K.; Hupke, M.; Hauke, A.; Reinert, D.; Widerszal-Bazyl, M.; Perez, J.; Oncins de Frutos, M.

    2007-01-01

    This report is in cooperation with TNO Work and Employment and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. The expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks was carried out by means of the Delphi method. The main emerging psychosocial risks revealed were related to new forms of employment co

  14. On the influence of space storms on the frequency of infarct-myocardial, brain strokes, and hard car accidents; possible using of CR for their forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, L. I.; Iucci, N.; Ptitsyna, N. G.; Villoresi, G.

    We consider the influence of space storms as strong interplanetary shock waves causing great cosmic ray Forbush-decreases and big geomagnetic storms on the people health at the ground level We used data of more than 7 millions ambulance cases in Moscow and St Petersburg included information on daily numbers of the hard traffic accidents infarctions and brain strokes We found that during space storms the average daily numbers of hard traffic accidents with using ambulances as well as infarctions and brain strokes confirmed by medical personal increase by 17 4 pm 3 1 10 5 pm 1 2 and 7 0 pm 1 7 respectively We show that the forecasting of these dangerous apace phenomena can be done partly by using cosmic ray data on pre-increase and pre-decrease effects as well as on the change of 3-D cosmic ray anisotropy

  15. A review of accident response models for risk assessments involving the transport of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study was performed to explore the differences between two spent fuel transportation risk assessment models used to calculate conditional accident probabilities and radionuclide release fractions. The Wilmot model, from work performed at Sandia National Laboratories, and the NRC-sponsored Modal Study model were compared to identify areas of conservatism and to assess their applicability to current risk assessment studies. The study included reviewing model assumptions, mathematical equations, and data sources for each model. The total probability hazard results showed that Modal Study gave several orders of magnitude higher total relative risk than the Wilmot values. However, considering the very low magnitudes of the risk, this difference is not considered significant with respect to the overall risk assessment. It was also found that the documentation and referencing of accident response region models needs improvements

  16. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2015-11-15

    This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing.

  17. An investigation of occupational accidents and safety risks in policing: Views of employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Gözübenli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Policing is one of the riskiest and dangerous professions by its nature. Police officers face a range of risks at work: homicide, assaults, attacks, communicable diseases, car crashes or explosions. The risks vary according to the task being undertaken such as arresting offenders, attending street disturbances or performing traffic duties. These risks, having the characteristics of occupational accident in a way, have institutional losses like compensation, loss of manpower and reputation besides individual results like injury, death, mutilation, and posttraumatic stress disorder, exposure to psychological disorders or decrease in quality of life. Opinions and suggestions of 1066 employees currently working at different ranks and units in Turkish National Police in regards with reducing the risks of occupational accidents and safety risks were studied in this research. Suggestions of the participants were reviewed under total nine headings (themes consisting of training, physical fitness and health, security measures, institutional policies and procedures, managerial policies, working conditions, equipment, uniforms, and patrol cars.

  18. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  19. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Christian Kaiser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI 4; 62 severe accidents among the world’s reactors in 100,000 years of operation has been estimated. This result is compatible with the frequency estimate of a probabilistic safety assessment for a typical pressurised power reactor in Germany. It is used in scenario calculations concerning the development in numbers of reactors in the next twenty years. For the base scenario with constant reactor numbers the time to the next accident among the world's 441 reactors, which were connected to the grid in 2010, is estimated to 11 (95% CI 3.7; 52 years. In two other scenarios a moderate increase or decrease in reactor numbers have negligible influence on the results. The time to the next accident can be extended well above the lifetime of reactors by retiring a sizeable number of less secure ones and by safety improvements for the rest.

  20. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  1. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  2. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo, E-mail: veronica.boemer@usp.b [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Pereira, Tatiana de Sousa, E-mail: araquino@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  3. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies. PMID:17920847

  4. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  6. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  7. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    OpenAIRE

    Milczarek, M.; Brun, E; Houtman, I.; Goudswaard, A.; Evers, M.; Bovenkamp, M. van de; Roskams, N.; Op de Beeck, R.; Pahkin, K.; Berthet, M.; Morvan, E.; Kuhn, K.; Kaluza, K; Hupke, M.; Hauke, A.

    2007-01-01

    This report is in cooperation with TNO Work and Employment and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. The expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks was carried out by means of the Delphi method. The main emerging psychosocial risks revealed were related to new forms of employment contracts and job insecurity, the OSH risks for the ageing workforce, work intensification - high workload and work pressure, high emotional demands at work - including violence and bullying, and poo...

  8. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because...... of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...

  9. The risk of accident in nuclear power plants - Quotes and questions. National debate on energy transition. Taking the risk of nuclear accident into account. Note to the 'scenarios' subgroup of the group of experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After an overview of the production of electricity from nuclear energy and of its risks, the author discusses the issue of nuclear safety by distinguishing the different points of view, by describing the different levels between a severe and a major accident, and by recalling the statements made by the ASN and the IRSN on this issue. He describes the various reasons and consequences of accidents: types of accidents which could result in a core fusion, the containment failure as the major accident. He discusses the questions and comments about major issues like: strength of reactor vessels, hydrogen explosion, water vapour explosion, corium crossing the concrete sill plate, corium recovery, MOX as an aggravating situation for safety. In the last part, the author discusses the global assessment of a risk of a nuclear accident: probabilities and occurrences, significant accidents on PWRs, premonitory analysis, demonstration of nuclear safety

  10. Estimating the subjective risks of driving simulator accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak; Harrison, Glenn W; Rutström, E Elisabet

    2014-01-01

    We examine the subjective risks of driving behavior using a controlled virtual reality experiment. Use of a driving simulator allows us to observe choices over risky alternatives that are presented to the individual in a naturalistic manner, with many of the cues one would find in the field. However, the use of a simulator allows us the type of controls one expects from a laboratory environment. The subject was tasked with making a left-hand turn into incoming traffic, and the experimenter controlled the headways of oncoming traffic. Subjects were rewarded for making a successful turn, and lost income if they crashed. The experimental design provided opportunities for subjects to develop subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn, and it also elicited their attitudes towards risk. A simple structural model explains behavior, and showed evidence of heterogeneity in both the subjective beliefs that subjects formed and their risk attitudes. We find that subjective beliefs change with experience in the task and the driver's skill. A significant difference was observed in the perceived probability to successfully turn among the inexperienced drivers who did and did not crash even though there was no significant difference in drivers' risk attitudes among the two groups. We use experimental economics to design controlled, incentive compatible tasks that provide an opportunity to evaluate the impact on driver safety of subject's subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn as well as their attitudes towards risk. This method could be used to help insurance companies determine risk premia associated with risk attitudes or beliefs of crashing, to better incentivize safe driving.

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  12. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  13. Web-based hydrological modeling system for flood forecasting and risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Cheng, Qiuming

    2008-10-01

    Mechanism of flood forecasting is a complex system, which involves precipitation, drainage characterizes, land use/cover types, ground water and runoff discharge. The application of flood forecasting model require the efficient management of large spatial and temporal datasets, which involves data acquisition, storage, pre-processing and manipulation, analysis and display of model results. The extensive datasets usually involve multiple organizations, but no single organization can collect and maintain all the multidisciplinary data. The possible usage of the available datasets remains limited primarily because of the difficulty associated with combining data from diverse and distributed data sources. Difficulty in linking data, analysis tools and model is one of the barriers to be overcome in developing real-time flood forecasting and risk prediction system. The current revolution in technology and online availability of spatial data, particularly, with the construction of Canadian Geospatial Data Infrastructure (CGDI), a lot of spatial data and information can be accessed in real-time from distributed sources over the Internet to facilitate Canadians' need for information sharing in support of decision-making. This has resulted in research studies demonstrating the suitability of the web as a medium for implementation of flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. Web-based hydrological modeling system can provide the framework within which spatially distributed real-time data accessed remotely to prepare model input files, model calculation and evaluate model results for flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. This paper will develop a prototype web-base hydrological modeling system for on-line flood forecasting and risk mapping in the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) area, southern Ontario, Canada, integrating information retrieval, analysis and model analysis for near real time river runoff prediction, flood frequency prediction, flood risk and flood inundation

  14. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC's Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs

  15. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  16. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  17. A web-based nuclear accident illumination system based on multilevel flow model - for risk communication and nuclear safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper introduces a new method to illuminate the nuclear accident by Multilevel Flow Model, and based on the method, a web-based nuclear accident illumination system is proposed to represent the current nuclear accident in nuclear power plant of Japan in an understandable way. The MFM is a means-end and part-whole modeling method to describe the structure and the intention of a plant process. The relationship between the MFM functions enables accident prediction for a plant process. Thus, a web-based accident illumination system based by MFM can describe the nuclear accident in the nuclear power plant clearly and be accessed by public to make the public get to know and understand the nuclear power and nuclear risk. The public can build their own confidence of the nuclear power by their understanding of the nuclear accident with this system and this is helpful to build a harmonious development environment for nuclear power. (author)

  18. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:27616269

  19. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC.

  20. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  1. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. PMID:26513334

  2. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  3. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a mor

  4. Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2015-10-01

    Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

  5. Bankruptcy risk forecasting for the metallurgical branch in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Răchişan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available All investment decisions require a thorough analysis of the retrospective evolution of the entities from the concerned area, in order to estimate the long-term evolution perspectives. In this context, the present study analyzes the evolution of the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector based on the accounting and financial information published for the period 2008 - 2012 and, in fact, it justifies the situation from the perspective of users (managers, investors, auditors and of the economic environment specific to Romania. Starting from this premise we created a regression model particularly useful in forecasting the evolution of the ability to deal with debt for the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector.

  6. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letícia Silveira Cardoso

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%, physical (88.2%, physiological (64.3% and biological (62.4%. In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05. It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment.

  7. Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models

    OpenAIRE

    esposito, francesco paolo; cummins, mark

    2015-01-01

    Extending previous risk model backtesting literature, we construct multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) with the stationary bootstrap. We conduct multiple tests which control for the generalized confidence level and employ the bootstrap MHT to design multiple comparison testing. We consider absolute and relative predictive ability to test a range of competing risk models, focusing on Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ExS). In devising the test for the absolute predictive ability, we ta...

  8. The accident at Gorleben: A case study of risk communication and risk amplification in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On May 12, 1987 an accident happened in the ''pilot mine'' at Gorleben in the Federal Republic of Germany where the feasibility of a repository or high-radioactive nuclear waste is currently being investigated. A miner was killed during that accident and two others were severely injured. Although this accident happened during conventional mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event received much public attention and news coverage and had a strong impact on the political debate on the Gorleben project of a repository mine for radioactive waste and even on the nuclear power controversy in general. This study does not aim to evaluate the accident that happened in the Gorleben pilot mine from a geological point of view nor does it aim to evaluate the West German waste disposal concept. All information given in chapter 2 on these aspects should be considered as background information, useful in understanding the subject of this case study: the risk communication concerning the Gorleben project in general and the accident in the shaft in particular

  9. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  10. FACTORS RELATED TO MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENT RISK BEHAVIOR AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chumpawadee, Urai; Homchampa, Pissamai; Thongkrajai, Pramote; Suwanimitr, Amorn; Chadbunchachai, Witaya

    2015-07-01

    Young motorcycle drivers in Thailand are at high risk for road traffic accidents. We conducted this study to identify factors associated with motorcycle accident risk behavior (MARB). We studied 372 randomly selected university students aged 18-22 years (mean 20.2 years; women comprised 68.0% of our participants), who attend a government university in northeastern Thailand. Each student was asked to fill out a questionnaire asking about MARB and factors associated with this behavior. The respondents had an average of 6.2 years (SD+3.09) motorcycle driving experience, 72.3% had a motorcycle driver's license and 83.0% had accident insurance. The prevalence of self-reported motorcycle accident injuries was 42.7%. Their major MARB were using a telephone while driving (69.3%), speeding (45.4%), driving with more than one passenger (40.1%), drunk driving (22.1%), and not wearing a helmet (23.3%). Factors related to MARB were: gender, with men engaged in risky behavior more often than women (p 5 years experience were more likely to engage in risky behavior (p < 0.05); and knowledge of safe driving, those with a greater knowledge of safe driving were more likely to drive safely (p < 0.001). Having a greater awareness of MARB was associated with lower risk of engaging in risky behavior (p < 0.001). Students who engaged in risky behavior were more likely to view it as normal behavior (p < 0.001) and less likely to have adequate self-control (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate a need to strengthen accident prevention programs for university students in northeastern Thailand. PMID:26867401

  11. Increased Risk of Hospitalization Related to Motor Vehicle Accidents Among People Taking Zolpidem: A Case–Crossover Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lai, Jung-Nien; Lee, Chang-Hsing; Wang, Jung-Der; Chen, Pau-Chung

    2011-01-01

    Background Several epidemiological and experimental studies have found a positive association between the risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) and use of zopiclone and benzodiazepines. There is, however, little evidence of any risk of MVA attributable to the use of zolpidem 1 day before such accidents. We attempted to determine whether the use of zolpidem 1 day before is associated with an increased risk of an MVA. Methods Using a 1-million-person randomly sampled cohort from the Taiwan Nat...

  12. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in Punjab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2015-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the extension projects in Punjab region of India.

  13. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    useful in emergency situations. The backtracking modelling feature and the possibility of importing spill locations from remote servers with observed data (per example, from flight surveillance or remote sensing) allow the potential application to the evaluation of possible contamination sources. The third tool developed is an innovative system to dynamically produce quantified risk levels in real time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools. This system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes (determined in EROCIPS project), real time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System (www.mohid.com). Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information, and metocean conditions, and results from these simulations are used in the quantification the consequences of potential spills. Dynamic Risk Tool was not designed to replace conventional mapping tools, but to complement that type of information with an innovative approach to risk mapping. Taking advantage of interoperability between forecasting models, oil spill simulations, AIS monitoring systems, statistical data and coastal vulnerability, this software can provide to end-users realtime risk levels, allowing an innovative approach to risk mapping, providing decision-makers with an improved decision support model and also an intelligent risk-based traffic monitoring. For instance, this tool allows the prioritisation of individual

  14. Stock index Value-at-Risk forecasting: A realized volatility extreme value theory approach

    OpenAIRE

    Louzis, Dimitrios P.; Spyros Xanthopoulos - Sissinis; Apostolos P. Refenes

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we propose the use of Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) type realized volatility models in combination with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) method for Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. The proposed model accounts for the long memory property of the realized volatility and the fat tails of the returns distribution. The out-of-sample forecasting results, based on the S&P 500 stock index, indicate that the HAR-type-EVT models outperform their GARCH-type counterparts in terms of sta...

  15. HTGR accident initiation and progression analysis status report. Phase II risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The primary purpose of this report is to document AIPA studies performed on the HTGR since issuance of the eight volumes. Implementation of the R and D recommendations is discussed, which includes consideration of new initiating events and accident sequences, modeling of fission product release from fuel particles, factors affecting PCRV plateout during core heatup, and the effect of earthquakes on plant operation. The Phase II risk assessment of core heatup events is presented. The major elements of the study include event trees and probability assessments, physical process evaluations, and evaluation of fission product transport and the associated radiological consequences. A risk assessment of accidents initiated by failures of the steam generators, including economizer-evaporator-superheater sections and the reheaters, is presented and the impact of various plant design options is quantified

  16. Accident Management ampersand Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities

  17. Risk management and role of schools of the Tokai-village radiation accident in 1999. Safety education and risk management before and during the radiation accident from the standpoint of school nurse teachers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate safety education and risk management in the neighborhood schools before and during the radiation accident in the Tokai-village in 1999 from the standpoint of school nurse teachers. Eighty-six school nurse teachers from 44 elementary, 25 junior-high, 14 high and 3 handicapped children's schools were surveyed within neighboring towns and villages. The main results were as follows: There had been few risk management systems against the potential radiation accidents including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection in all of the neighboring schools. There were no significant difference in risk management systems among the schools before the accident, though the anxiety rates of school children were significantly higher in the schools nearest to the accident site. Some radiation risk management systems must be established in neighboring schools including safety education, radiological monitoring and protection. (author)

  18. Perceptions of accident risk among on-track machine workers : an interview study

    OpenAIRE

    Morgan, Jim; Abbott, Rachel; Furness, Penny; Webster-Spriggs, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    Although non-fatal injuries remain a frequent occurrence in safety-critical work, very few studies have examined the ways in which organisational systems and processes influence individual safety behaviour. Even fewer have explored the perceived factors contributing to accident risk using qualitative research methods. This short paper presents the initial results from a thematic analysis of ten interviews with On Track Machine (OTM) operatives. Issues arising from two key themes (fatigue, and...

  19. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima.

  20. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed rational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environment. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EDF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  1. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. PMID:26817782

  2. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  3. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  4. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  5. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    OpenAIRE

    Michio Murakami; Kyoko Ono; Masaharu Tsubokura; Shuhei Nomura; Tomoyoshi Oikawa; Tosihiro Oka; Masahiro Kami; Taikan Oki

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "r...

  6. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  7. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG (radioisotope thermoelectric generator) on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, M. (California Univ., Davis, CA (USA)); Nelson, R.C. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA)); Bollinger, L. (Air Force Inspection and Safety Center, Kirtland AFB, NM (USA)); Hoover, M.D. (Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (USA). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.); Templeton, W. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Anspaugh, L. (Lawren

    1990-11-02

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher. 83 refs.

  8. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  9. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  10. Inter-basin water transfer-supply model and risk analysis with consideration of rainfall forecast information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.

  11. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  12. Nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 27 May 1986 the Norwegian government appointed an inter-ministerial committee of senior officials to prepare a report on experiences in connection with the Chernobyl accident. The present second part of the committee's report describes proposals for measures to prevent and deal with similar accidents in the future. The committee's evaluations and proposals are grouped into four main sections: Safety and risk at nuclear power plants; the Norwegian contingency organization for dealing with nuclear accidents; compensation issues; and international cooperation

  13. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  14. Radiological accidents potentially important to human health risk in the U.S. Department of Energy waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human health risks as a consequence of potential radiological releases resulting from plausible accident scenarios constitute an important consideration in the US Department of Energy (DOE) national program to manage the treatment, storage, and disposal of wastes. As part of this program, the Office of Environmental Management (EM) is currently preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) that evaluates the risks that could result from managing five different waste types. This paper (1) briefly reviews the overall approach used to assess process and facility accidents for the EM PEIS; (2) summarizes the key inventory, storage, and treatment characteristics of the various DOE waste types important to the selection of accidents; (3) discusses in detail the key assumptions in modeling risk-dominant accidents; and (4) relates comparative source term results and sensitivities

  15. The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Ben R. Craig; Keller, Joachim

    2005-01-01

    We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified to account for correlation across time between our random variables, which are uniform under the null hypothesis. We find that the dens...

  16. Regional management of accidents risk level: strategy based on effective feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today the accidents prevention and environmental protection activity in Bashkortostan Republic is regulated by Governmental Programme including risk management as one of the main parts. The authors of the present paper accumulated some experience in risk management system creation because they took part in the investigations according to the mentioned Programme. Their proposal concerns this closed-loop system general structure which is planned to be based on three kinds of feedbacks: internal feedback (it utilizes the special Russian institutions for the plants state observation and limitation such 'Gosgortechnodzor', 'Gossanepidnadzor', etc...; all the noted institutions must be informed of the current situation and fulfill the actions oriented towards risk indices reduction); intermediate feedback (it is represented by the insurance system functioning with respect to insurance agencies investments into the plants operational security); external feedback (it includes the subsystem of HP security declarations analysis mechanism, special HP regional register and the expert commission whose decisions become the foundations for governmental responses). The authors consider all the feedbacks interaction in order to provide the stability of region development. The resulting strategy for accidents risk level management has been confirmed now by some normative documents in Bashkortostan Republic. (authors)

  17. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  18. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  19. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  20. Information and communication technologies, a tool for risk prevention and accident management on sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Lépy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice melting topic is a repetitive phenomenon in alarmist speeches on climate change. The present positive evolution of air temperatures has in all probability many impacts on the environment and more or less directly on societies. Face to the temperature elevation, the ice pack is undergone to an important temporal variability of ice growth and melting. Human populations can be exposed to meteorological and ice hazards engendering a societal risk. The purpose of this paper is to better understand how ICT get integrated into the risk question through the example of the Bay of Bothnia in the northern extremity of the Baltic Sea. The study deals with the way that Finnish society, advanced in the ICT field, faces to new technology use in risk prevention and accident management on sea ice.

  1. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K. [Risk Communication Study Office, Japan Atomic Energy Agency 4-33 Muramatsu, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki, 319-1194 (Japan)

    2013-07-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.

  2. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety

  3. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility's evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility

  4. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  5. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date, res...... in this analysis. In conclusion, further research must focus on the development of model structures that allow the proper separation of dry and wet weather uncertainties and simulate runoff uncertainties depending on the rainfall input.......Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date......, research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore...

  6. [Method of ecological risk assessment for risk pollutants under short-term and high dose exposure in water pollution accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Bing-Li; Sun, Yan-Feng; Liu, Qian; Yu, Zhi-Qiang; Zeng, Xiang-Ying

    2011-11-01

    In recent years, water pollution accidents resulting in acute aquatic ecological risk and security issues become a research focus. However, in our country, the surface water quality standards and drinking water health standards were used to determine the safety of waters or not in pollution incidents due to lacking safety effect threshold or risk value for protection of aquatic life. In foreign countries, although predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) or risk value (R) of pollutants were provided for protection of aquatic organisms, the PNECs or risk values were derived based on long-term exposure toxicity data NOECs (no observed effect concentrations) and lack of short-term exposure risk or threshold values. For the short-term and high dose exposure in pollution incident, ecological risk assessment methods were discussed according to the procedures of the conventional ecological risk assessment and the water quality criteria establishment of the U.S. EPA for the protection of aquatic organisms in short-term exposure, and had a case study. At the same time, we provide some suggestions for the establishment of ecological risk assessment system in water pollution incidents. PMID:22295619

  7. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  8. Preparing patients to travel abroad safely. Part 4: Reducing risk of accidents, diarrhea, and sexually transmitted diseases.

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, R E

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To present evidence-based recommendations on traveling abroad safely so family physicians can advise travelers on how to reduce risk of accidents, diarrhea, and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and how to treat diarrhea themselves if medical care is unavailable. QUALITY OF EVIDENCE: A MEDLINE search from 1990 to November 1998 found 163 articles on travel and accidents, 504 on travel and diarrhea, and 42 on travel and STDs. Titles and abstracts were reviewed, and randomized cont...

  9. APRI-7 Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. A progress report on research in the field of severe accidents in 2009-2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knowledge of the phenomena that may occur during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant is an important prerequisite for being able to predict the plant behavior, in order to formulate procedures and instructions for incident handling, for contingency planning, and to get good quality at the accident analysis and risk studies. Since the early 80's nuclear power companies and authorities in Sweden has collaborated in research on severe reactor accidents. Cooperation in the beginning was mostly linked to strengthening the protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, in particular to develop systems for filtered depressurization of the reactor containment. Since the early 90's the cooperation has partially changed and shifted to the phenomenological questions of risk dominance. During the years 2009-2011, cooperation continued in the research-program APRI-7. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for accident management provides reasonable protection for the environment. This was done by gaining detailed knowledge of both important phenomena in the hearth melting behavior, and the amount of radioactivity that can be discharged to the surroundings during a severe accident. To achieve this aim, the research program has included a follow-up of international research in severe accidents and evaluation of results, and continued to support research at KTH and Chalmers Univ. of severe accidents. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has provided access to a wealth of information about various phenomena relevant to the events at severe accidents. This was important to obtain a good basis for assessment of abatement measures in the Swedish nuclear reactors. Continuing support to the Royal Inst. of Technology has provided increased knowledge about the ability to cool the molten core of the reactor vessel and the processes associated with cooling the

  10. Estimation of Value-at-Risk on Romanian Stock Exchange Using Volatility Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu Ilie OPREANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C. VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility than past data. To emphasize this fact, recently, EWMA and GARCH models have become critical tools in financial applications. The outcome of this study is that GARCH provides more accurate analysis than EWMA.This approach is useful for traders and risk managers to be able to forecast the future volatility on a certain market.

  11. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea

    2001-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system.

  12. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system

  13. Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C Sauter

    Full Text Available There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes.This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression.Two hundred and eighty (280 patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235 patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9% and traumatic brain injury (TBI was detected in 28 patients (10%. Eight (8 of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15, (29.6% exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both.In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05, but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171.In patients

  14. Prediction Study of Tunnel Collapse Risk in Advance based on Efficacy Coefficient Method and Geological Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    QIU Daohong

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Collapse is one of the most common accidents in underground constructions. Risk evaluation is the method of measuring the risk of chamber collapse. To ensure the safety of construction, a risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse based on an efficacy coefficient method and geological prediction was put forward. Based on the comprehensive analysis of collapse factors, five main factors including rock uniaxial compressive strength, surrounding rock integrated coefficient, state of discontinuous structural planes, the angle between tunnel axis and major structural plane and underground water were chosen as the risk evaluation indices of tunnel collapse. The evaluation indices were quantitatively described by using TSP203 system and core-drilling to establish the risk early warning model of tunnel collapse based on the basic principle of the efficacy coefficient method. The model established in this research was applied in the collapse risk recognition of Kiaochow Bay subsea tunnel in Qingdao, China. The results showed that the collapse risk recognition method presents higher prediction accuracy and provided a new idea for the risk prediction of tunnel collapse.

  15. Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

    1996-01-01

    In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

  16. Research on risk communication after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is about the risk communication cases that the author participated in after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The research aims to clarify the content of information that should be provided in risk communication and to develop a risk communication tool specifically designed for this purpose. The risk communication cases were explanatory meetings intended for the residents in Fukushima Prefecture and the advisory council on radiation health effects sponsored by Tochigi Prefecture. To clarify the kinds of information necessary to provide at such meetings, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 31 food sanitation inspectors using the Delphi method. A gaming simulation was used for the development of the communication tool. We used public disclosure materials at the meetings and the survey was conducted only among those whom we obtained written informed consent. The content regarding the radioactive substances in food which was found to be the most important for the consumers to learn was ''zero risk is impossible'' (84 points), followed by ''radioactive substances and other risks (e.g. smoking and excessive alcohol intake)'' (70 points). To develop the communication tool, we used ''Quartetto (card game)'' and the contents were such as ''daily life'', ''radioactive substances'', and ''measurement''. Considering the questions raised from the residents at the meetings, an information portal such as homepages did not provide clear information on how to evaluate risks by themselves. The results from the questionnaire survey shows that it is difficult to solve this matter unless the public learns to think about the risks of various matters on their own. The lack of experts will make it necessary for the local government officials to provide more information, and therefore training on risk communication is essential. We need to evaluate the Quartetto game and revise the content considering the audience. (author)

  17. MADYMO simulation of children in cycle accidents: a novel approach in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, D S; Rosenberg, N M

    2013-10-01

    Head injuries are a significant cause of death and injury to child cyclists both on and off the road. Current evaluations of the effectiveness of cycle helmets rely on simplified mechanical testing or the analysis of aggregated accident statistics. This paper presents a direct evaluation of helmet efficacy by using computational modelling to simulate a range of realistic accident scenarios, including loss of control, collision with static objects and vehicle impact. A 6-year-old cyclist was modelled (as a Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy), in addition to a typical children's bicycle and a vehicle using the MADYMO dynamics software package. Simulations were performed using ranges of cyclist position, cycle speed and vehicle speed with and without a helmet that meets current standards. Wearing a cycle helmet was found to reduce the probability of head injuries, reducing the average probability of fatality over the scenarios studied from 40% to 0.3%. Similarly, helmet wearing reduced the probability of neck injuries (average probability of fatality reduced from 11% to 1%). There was no evidence that helmet wearing increased the severity of brain or neck injuries caused by rotational accelerations; in fact these were slightly reduced. Similarly, there was no evidence that increased cycling speed, such as might result from helmet related risk compensation, increased the probability of head injury. PMID:23954681

  18. Special committee review of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's severe accident risks report (NUREG--1150)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In April 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) published a draft report ''Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants,'' NUREG-1150. This report updated, extended and improved upon the information presented in the 1974 ''Reactor Safety Study,'' WASH-1400. Because the information in NUREG-1150 will play a significant role in implementing the NRC's Severe Accident Policy, its quality and credibility are of critical importance. Accordingly, the Commission requested that the RES conduct a peer review of NUREG-1150 to ensure that the methods, safety insights and conclusions presented are appropriate and adequately reflect the current state of knowledge with respect to reactor safety. To this end, RES formed a special committee in June of 1989 under the provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. The Committee, composed of a group of recognized national and international experts in nuclear reactor safety, was charged with preparing a report reflecting their review of NUREG-1150 with respect to the adequacy of the methods, data, analysis and conclusions it set forth. The report which precedes reflects the results of this peer review

  19. Cancer risks in the Kaluga oblast of the Russian Federation 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cancer morbidity and mortality were studied in areas of the Kaluga oblast contaminated with radionuclides. The main objective of the study was to assess the influence of radiation exposure on existing levels of cancer morbidity and mortality. Time trends and relative population risks were analysed. Based on this analysis, it was concluded that the current levels of morbidity from cancers among the populations residing in the studied areas were primarily a result of a complex of factors which predated the exposure from the Chernobyl accident. However, there seems to be an unfavourable trend concerning malignant neoplasms of the respiratory organs for women residing in the contaminated areas. To date, no statistically significant effect of radiation on cancer morbidity (except for thyroid cancer in women) has been noted. The levels of cancer morbidity and mortality in the contaminated areas generally reflect the changes in cancer incidence in the oblast as a whole. The findings are consistent with international data on latent periods for the induction of radiogenic cancers and the biological effects for similar levels of exposure to populations residing in contaminated territories. Further studies are necessary in order to monitor possible effects that are related to the accident. (orig.)

  20. Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: case of Paris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maestracci, Marion; Prochasson, François; Geffroy, Aurélie; Peccoud, Florian

    2012-11-01

    For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians.

  1. 基于事故发展与控制的隐患分级方法%Risk Classification Method for Accident Potential Based on Development and Control Measures of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵东风; 申玉琪; 赵志强; 张佑明; 孟亦飞

    2012-01-01

    For the purpose of making the management of accident potential more scientific, the relationship between accident potential and accident was discussed and studied. The fundamental property of accident potential was brought forward that it can make the accident happen or develop. The mechanism whereby accident potential functions in the accident was revealed clearly, by predicting the impelling and inhibiting factors in the accident process. The accident potential was classified into two types (the first type of accident potential and the second type of accident potential) according to the different time they work. In the risk assessment, the problem of specific accident potential grading was resolved. By introducing the assessment indexes of accident potential exposure frequency, possibility of other factors, corrective actions, the initial value of the consequences of the accident, the correction factor of personnel protection, the correction factor of personnel exposure, the correction factor of emergency measures, the correction factor of property loss, an assessment index system was established. By calculating the risk of accident potential-causing accident, the real risk of accident potential was assessed.%为使隐患管理工作更加科学,对隐患与事故的关系进行研讨,提出隐患的根本属性是能够促使事故发生或发展.通过预估促使和控制(阻碍)事故发展的因素,来揭示隐患在事故过程中的作用机制.根据发生作用的时间将隐患分为第1类隐患和第2类隐患.在风险评估过程中,解决了具体隐患风险分级的问题,提出隐患暴露频率、其他条件的可能性、隐患纠正系数、事故后果初始分值、人员防护修正系数、人员暴露修正系数、应急处理与事故控制修正系数和财产损失修正系数等评价指标.通过隐患致因事故风险的计算,评估隐患的最终风险.

  2. Questions concerning safety and risk after the nuclear accidents in Japan. Deepened accident analysis for the Fukushima Daiichi power plant; Sicherheits- und Risikofragen im Nachgang zu den nuklearen Stoer- und Unfaellen in Japan. Vertiefte Ereignisanalyse zur Anlage Fukushima-Daini

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pistner, Christoph; Englert, Matthias [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2015-02-25

    The study questions concerning safety and risk in Japanese power plants following the disastrous nuclear accident covers the following issues: the nuclear facility Fukushima Daiichi, site characterization, important technical equipment, important electro-technical equipment, personal; description of the accident progression in the Fukushima nuclear power plant: impact of the earthquake, impact of the tsunami, short-term measures of the operating personnel, pressure and temperature situation in the containments, restoration of the after-heat cooling system in the units 1/2 and 4, fuel element storage pool, summarized parameters during the accident progress; comparative analysis of the accident progression at the Fukushima Daiichi site.

  3. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An assessment and evaluation of the potential radiological risks of transport accidents involving Type A package shipments by road have been performed by five EU Member States, France, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis involved collection and analysis of information on a national basis related to the type, volume, and characteristics of Type A package consignments, the associated radioactive traffic, and the expected frequency and consequences of potential vehicular road transport accidents. It was found that the majority of Type A packaged radioactive material shipments by road is related to applications of non-special form radioactive material, i.e. radiopharmaceuticals, radiochemicals etc., in medicine, research, and industry and special form material contained in radiography and other radiation sources, e.g. gauging equipment. The annual volumes of Type A package shipments of radiopharmaceuticals and radiochemicals by road differ considerably between the participating EU Member States from about 12,000 Type A packages in Sweden to about 240,000 in the Netherlands. The broad range reflects to a large extent the supply of radioactive material for the national populations and the production and distribution operations prevailing in the participating EU Member States (some are producer countries, others are not!). Very few standard package designs weighing from about 1-25 kg are predominant in Type A package shipments in all participating countries. Type A packages contain typically a range of radioactivity from a few mega becquerels to a few tens of giga becquerels, the average package activity contents is in terms of fractions of A2 about 0.01, i.e. about one hundredth of a Type A package contents limits. Based on a probabilistic risk assessment method it has been concluded that the expected frequencies of occurrence of vehicular road transport accidents with the potential to result in an environmental release - including radiologically

  4. [Safety value of contaminant in water pollution accident based on human health risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bing-Hui; Luo, Jin-Hong; Fu, Qing; Qin, Yan-Wen; Hu, Lin-Lin

    2012-02-01

    The acute human health risk assessment of contaminant in water pollution accident is a new study field of environmental sciences. This study established a model for calculating acute safety value of contaminant in water pollutant. The acute safety value of contaminant in mainly water pollution during 2000-2010 was calculated by this model. The safety value of sodium cyanide, cadmium, formaldehyde, ammonia, toluene, nitrobenzene, microcystin-LR were 0.1, 0.6, 8, 20, 6, 0.07, 0.004 mg x L(-1), respectively. The differences of safety value calculate methods between acute and chronic exposure were compared from the following aspects, the toxicology exposure end-point, allocation of intake, exposure sensitive subpopulation. PMID:22509564

  5. Assuring containment in reactor accidents: recent advances concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents the different programs led in laboratories concerning the mitigation of the hydrogen risk in nuclear power plants. 3 aspects are considered: the generation of hydrogen during a reactor major accident, the distribution of this gas inside the reactor containment building and the different combustion modes of hydrogen. Studies show that it is difficult to prevent at any time and place the formation of a combustible mixture despite the presence of hydrogen recombiners. Studies have led to the setting of criteria concerning flame acceleration and detonation-explosion transitions, it has been shown that a mixture whose expansion parameter stays below a limit value can not lead to a flame acceleration over 400 m/s. (A.C.)

  6. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga;

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost...... possible reference pool of projects and second to apply overconfidence theory (OT) to interpret expert judgments (EJ) about costs and demand as relating to a specific project up for examination. By combining flexible use of RCF with EJ based on OT interpretation it is argued that the current adjustment...

  7. Thyroid cancer risk in Ukrainian and Belarusian areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text of publication follows: The purpose of the present study is to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data are analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-85 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response is 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 104 PY-Gy, for the quadratic coefficient it is -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 104 PY-Gy2. The EAR is assessed to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreases with age at exposure and increases with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response is 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy-1, for the quadratic coefficient it is -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy-2. The ERR is assessed to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreases strongly with age at exposure. Both, EAR and ERR, are higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures. (authors)

  8. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  9. The researches of I.P.S.N. in criticality from the risk prevention to the accident study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The researches made by I.P.S.N. in the field of prevention of the criticality risk turn on: the development and the qualification of calculation tools; the expertise in technical help of the I.P.S.N. units in charge of safety evaluations of facilities and transport of fissile matter; studies of criticality to the demand of operators and facilities managers; researches in order to extend the knowledge in matter of criticality. The second part of this report concerns the study of criticality accidents themselves. The objectives of these studies is to bring elements and knowledge relative to the criticality excursions and their consequences on the personnel and environment. The knowledge of these accidents is necessary to deepen the evaluation of the installations safety, to optimize the detection and to prepare an intervention. A table gives the criticality accidents from 1945 to 1999 in the world with, the date, the exposure, the total number of fission, the accident historic, the characteristics of the fissile matter and a summary of the accident. The last part relates the Tokai MURA criticality accident. (N.C.)

  10. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Philip

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents.A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents.As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05. The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05, 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05, 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05, and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05. Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents.Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  11. A STUDY ON PREVALENCE OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND ITS RISK FACTORS IN JHANSI AND AROUND JHANSI CITY (U . P .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Kumar

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Expansion in network, motorization and urbanization in the country has been accompanied by a rise in road accidents leading to road traffic injuries (RTIs. Accident represents a major epidemic of non - communicable disease in present century. OBJECTIVE: To study the prevalence of Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs and its risk factors in Jhansi & around Jhansi city. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A hospital based cross sectional study was carried out in MLB Medical College and Hospital , Jhansi and the cases sustaining ro ad traffic injuries registering from 1 January 2013 to 31 July 2014 were taken irrespective of the place of accident. The data was entered in excel sheet and results were expressed as proportions and percentages. RESULTS: Among them maximum number of cases were in 21 - 30 years age group (30.53% followed by 31 - 40 years (21.66% and >60 years (4.65% shows the least no. of victims. In the study majority of cases were reported from Orchha Road (11.5%. In the study it was observed that majority of accidents oc cur in winter season (37.24% and in night time (34.47%.Among them 19.68% victims stated that defective road as the most common condition associated with RTA followed by poor lighting (18.54%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study majority of victims were younger, males, less educated and labourer by occupation. Among risk factors defective roads, poor lighting, excessive speed, overloading and alcohol consumption were found causing RTAs.

  12. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research. PMID:25997167

  13. Assessment of accident risk among elderly in domestic environment: A cross-sectional study in rural south Karnataka, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radha Y Aras

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geriatric population is vulnerable to domestic accidents. Safety-related provisions/behavior in domestic environment can reduce the risk of accidents. Aim and Objective: To know the safety practices followed at home by people above 60 years age and to assess few epidemiological factors associated with their risk of domestic accident. Study Design: A community-based cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: Using Lot Quality Technique, 135 elderly (out of 196; at 7% desired level of accuracy, 95% desired confidence level, willing to participate, were interviewed for their practices towards accident prevention. Observations were made regarding safety provisions within homes. The data was recorded in predesigned, pre-tested, semi-structured proformas, based on Home Safety Checklist Tool. Statistical Analysis Used: SPSS package version 17. Fisher′s Exact test applied for statistical significance of factors related to accident risk in domestic environment. Results: Elderly from joint families significantly keep passage of bedroom to bathroom free from obstacles, telephone cords away from walking area and use stool to reach high cupboard (P < 0.0005. In nuclear families, stairway was kept adequately lighted (P < 0.05. Literate elderly put away things back to its place after using, walk in room without obstacles, keep soap reachable during bath, keep stairways in good condition, use doormats to wipe feet (P < 0.05. Habit of not cleaning up spills (85.2%, walking on wet floor (60.7%, and no grab bars in bathrooms (53.3% were observed. Conclusion: Provision and use of home safety measures/practices with needful awareness and attitude are important to prevent domestic accidents amongst elderly.

  14. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Lei; Ying ZHOU; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K.; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public’s attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis ...

  15. 0BOccupational Risk Factors in Iranian Professional Drivers and their Impacts on Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEHDI JAHANGIRI

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available   In many countries road crashes are the main cause of fatal accidents related to job. The aim of our study was to characterize a population of Iranian professional drivers with regard to history of drivers’ road crash incidents and some occupational factors. Using Swedish version of the Nordic Questionnaire information about musculoskeletal pain prevalence in last 12 months, demographic features, smoking habits, age, job experience, road crash, job consent, self-perceived job stress, working load and fatigue were obtained from 403 drivers. Ninety seven (25% of the study population reported having one or more traffic accident during their driving job history. The association between self-report incident of road crash and driving duration, smoking, lack of exercise, fatigue, lack of health education and musculoskeletal complaints were statistically significant(p<0.05. Data analysis also revealed positive significant association between fatigue as dependent variable and driving duration, self perceived stress and lack of job consent as independent variables (p<0.01. The questionnaire data indicated that signs of fatigue in smoker drivers, old drivers (>50 years, high experienced drivers (>10 years, drivers without sport activities, night drivers, fat and over weighted drivers, old vehicle drivers (age of vehicle >10 years, bus and truck drivers were more than other groups of professional drivers but the differences were not significant. It can be said that occupational risk factors influence the safe operation of drivers. However, prevention strategies such as organizational changes for reducing work-related stress, recording and analysis of road incidents, national health and safety law for drivers are needed.

  16. On Risk Forecast and Risk Reduction of Tectonic Rock Bursts and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tazhibaev, Kushbakali

    2015-04-01

    Avershin, Shrepp, Kvochkin, Bojarkin and others observed that before strong rock bursts, considered as weak earthquakes, for several hours, sometimes for 2-5 days, there occurred spasmodic and sign-variable changes in deformations of rock massif adjacent areas. The works of seismologists Rikitaki, Asada, Isibasi, Matsuda, Saverensky, etc. describe a number of cases of an earthquake before which spasmodic and sign-variable deformations of earth's crust have been observed. The results of our own experimental research conducted during last decades show that abnormal spasmodic and sign-variable deformations are observed only in rocks having residual stresses. As a rule, these rocks at test after such abnormal deformations collapse dynamically, like explosions, and as a rule, such rocks represent dangerous rock bursts in deposits, located in seismically active areas (Tazhibaev K. Conditions of dynamic destruction of rocks and causes of rock bursts, Frunze 1989). It is necessary to notice that these spasmodic deformations are accompanied by formation and movement of internal discontinuities: dislocations, micro-cracks, and, hence, by redistribution of electric charges in a crystal lattice, and also in the rock as a whole. Redistribution and change in position of electric charges lead to the change of the natural electric potential and intensity of the magnetic field in the rocks massif. Before tectonic rock bursts and earthquakes together with abnormal changes of deformation, the same spasmodic and sign-variable changes of the natural electric and magnetic fields intensity occur. Based on the above-stated experimental findings, for solution of the problem of tectonic earthquakes forecast, we suggest placing the deformation measuring tool, the magnetic field intensity measuring tool and the device for measurement of natural electric potential along with seismic measurement into the seismic stations. Using abnormal, simultaneous changes of indications of all above listed

  17. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low lighting conditions

    OpenAIRE

    K. Ivan; I. HAIDU; J. BENEDEK; Ciobanu, S. M.

    2015-01-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, the low lighting conditions significantly influence the frequency of the traffic accidents in the urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low lighting conditions on the traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca. The dependence degree between lighting and the number of traffic accidents was analyzed by the Pearson's correlation and the relation between the spatial distributio...

  18. Evaluation and communication of potential risk of radionuclide contamination of foods after Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A large scale nuclear power plant accident happened after the great earthquake with a huge tsunami in the Eastern part of Japan in March 2011. Potential risk from radionuclide contamination in foods after the nuclear power plant accident was estimated using data of radiological food contamination from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Data analyzed by combining nuclide, food, level of radiation detection, period, age-classified population, were compared to provisional index levels of radionuclides, and existing contamination levels in food by natural radioactive potassium. Health risk was shown to be very low or negligible considering presence of background radiological exposure from foods and the environment. Appropriate explanation of risk to various stakeholders of the society is imperative and results of trials were reported. (author)

  19. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  20. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  1. Does debt ceiling and government shutdown help in forecasting the us equity risk premium?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aye Goodness C.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article evaluates the predictability of the equity risk premium in the United States by comparing the individual and complementary predictive power of macroeconomic variables and technical indicators using a comprehensive set of 16 economic and 14 technical predictors over a monthly out-ofsample period of 1995:01 to 2012:12 and an in-sample period of 1986:01- 1994:12. In order to do so we consider, in addition to the set of variables used in Christopher J. Neely et al. (2013 and using a more recent dataset, the forecasting ability of two other important variables namely government shutdown and debt ceiling. Our results show that one of the newly added variables namely government shutdown provides statistically significant out-of-sample predictive power over the equity risk premium relative to the historical average. Most of the variables, including government shutdown, also show significant economic gains for a risk averse investor especially during recessions.

  2. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the

  3. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  4. Communicating landslide hazard and risk through global catalogs and a forecasting framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, D. B.; Adler, D.; Adler, R. F.

    2010-12-01

    over estimation of potential landslide activity areas, are geographically variable and depend on the spatial resolution of the landslide susceptibility information as well as the rainfall information and thresholds used to identify triggering conditions in time. The ability to accurately evaluate the algorithm’s performance is closely linked to the availability and accuracy of landslide event information in the global landslide catalog. Near real-time communication of susceptible landslide areas from the landslide algorithm framework is controlled by the availability and accuracy of satellite-based precipitation information. Current missions such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as well as future missions such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provide critical inputs to near real-time hazard assessment and numerical weather forecasts. Synthesizing landslide report information and the landslide hazard forecasting framework provides the unique opportunity to evaluate and communicate landslide hazard and risk globally to a broad audience, including the scientific community, public, governments, and response organizations.

  5. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  6. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. PMID:22785089

  7. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors.

  8. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    OpenAIRE

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry–general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010–...

  9. Nuclear industry and the management of accident risk in Europe: from the internalisation default to the coverage organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The production of nuclear energy creates environmental and sanitary risks among which the risk of nuclear accident. There is a twofold dimension in the management of such a risk: a preventive dimension and a compensatory one. Given its catastrophic and unpredictable character, the nuclear risk has always been managed in a specific way. In Europe, its management is unsatisfactory. The civil liability regime is beneficial to the nuclear industry as it leads to a lack of internalisation and thus to a limited coverage of potential damages. The financial cap of the nuclear operator's civil liability reduces his incentives for the prevention of accidents. By narrowing its liability, it also limits the burden tied to the coverage of the full potential damages. The organisation of the nuclear risk coverage was heavily conditioned by the civil liability regime and the financial cap it creates. Such an organisation is inefficient. The nuclear insurance market's financial capacity is not enough to compensate for all the potential victims of a major nuclear accident. Moreover, the functioning of this market is quite costly for the nuclear operator. While new electronuclear projects are being launched in Europe, the management of nuclear risks must be questioned in order to find better solutions to the necessity of internalising, preventing and compensating. Nuclear operators should be responsible for all the damages caused through an unlimited liability rule. The coverage of potential damages could also be improved by setting up a risk-sharing agreement at the European scale between operators. (author)

  10. With safety more safe. An intelligent data management reduces the risk of accidents and supports the accident management; Mit Sicherheit sicherer. Intelligentes Datenmanagement minimiert das Stoerfallrisiko und unterstuetzt das Stoerfallmanagement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wegg, Dirk [Siemens Industry Software GmbH and Co KG, Essen (Germany)

    2012-02-15

    It was not always possible to avoid accidents in industrial plants. Unfortunately, there will be no absolute security. Newest technologies, innovative solutions and effective safety concepts allow a significant reduction of the risk especially for critical applications. An intelligent data management system is an important tool for this reduction of risk.

  11. Hydrogen management and the metamorphosis of NRC policy on severe nuclear accident risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From the early days of light water reactor developments, it was understood that, following a loss-of-coolant accident, hydrogen could accumulate inside the primary reactor containment as a result of: (1) metal-water reaction involving the fuel element cladding; (2) the radiolytic decomposition of the water in the reactor core and the containment sump; (3) the corrosion of certain construction materials by some spray solutions; and (4) possible synergistic effects of chemical, thermal and radiolytic by-products of accidents on containment protective coatings and electric cable insulation. The NRC's policy decisions regarding hydrogen management prior to and in light of the TMI-2 loss of coolant accident are discussed

  12. The development and application of the accident dynamic simulator for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the principal modelling concepts, practical aspects, and an application of the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) developed for full scale dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) of nuclear power plants. Full scale refers not only to the size of the models, but also to the number of potential sequences which should be studied. Plant thermal-hydraulics behaviour, safety systems response, and operator interactions are explicitly accounted for as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. ADS uses discrete dynamic event trees (D-DET) as the main accident scenario modelling approach, and introduces computational techniques to minimize the computer memory requirement and expedite the simulation. An operator model (including procedure-based behaviour and several types of omission and commission errors) and a thermal-hydraulic model with a PC run time more than 300 times faster than real accident time are among the main modules of ADS. To demonstrate the capabilities of ADS, a dynamic PRA of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture event of a US nuclear power plant is analyzed

  13. Risk reduction category (RRC-A) accident studies in the safety analysis report of the EPR trademark reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poehlmann, M.; Bleher, G.; Ismaier, A.; Knoll, A.; Levi, P.; Garcia, E. Vera; Schels, A.; Seitz, H.; Lima Campos, L. [AREVA GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is considered in the safety demonstration of nuclear reactors in addition to design basis operating conditions (Plant Condition Category, PCC), in order to analyze with a risk reduction approach any operating conditions with multiple failures. As extending the operating conditions of the plant 'beyond design basis', the Risk Reduction Category (RRC-A) is also denoted as Design Extension Condition (DEC-A). In the German licensing framework, the RRCA (or DEC-A) transients correspond to safety assessment level '4b' of the 'Sicherheitsanforderungen an Kernkraftwerke' (Safety Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants), Az. RS I 5 - 13303/01 of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. These RRC-A (or DEC-A) operating conditions require specific design provisions (implemented by manual or automatic action), known as RRC-A measures, intended to render consequences of accumulated failures admissible. In contrast, RRC-B constitute severe accidents that lead to core melt. Identification of RRC-A operating conditions and corresponding RRC-A measures is based on the use of results of probabilistic safety assessments. After the Fukushima accident the RRC-A accidents like Station Black Out (SBO) or Loss of Ultimate Heat Sink (LUHS) are of particular interest in the safety assessment of nuclear new builds. In several chapters of the Safety Analysis Report it is demonstrated that the AREVA EPRTM design is resistant at RRC-A accident conditions. (orig.)

  14. Experience of technological and natural disasters and their impact on the perceived risk of nuclear accidents after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan 2011: A cross-country analysis

    OpenAIRE

    YAMAMURA, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses cross-country data compiled immediately after the Fukushima nuclear accident to investigate how the experience of such disasters affects the perception of the risk of nuclear accidents. Estimation results show that the perceived risk of a nuclear accident is positively associated with experiencing technological disasters but not with that of natural disasters.

  15. The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities Pf,i, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for Pf,i is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for Pf,i is been used. (Author)

  16. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  17. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

  18. State-of-the-art report on accident analysis and risk analysis of reprocessing plants in European countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes informations obtained from America, England, France and FRG concerning methodology, computer code, fundamental data and calculational model on accident/risk analyses of spent fuel reprocessing plants. As a result, the followings are revealed. (1) The system analysis codes developed for reactor plants can be used for reprocessing plants with some code modification. (2) Calculational models and programs have been developed for accidental phenomenological analyses in FRG, but with insufficient data to prove them. (3) The release tree analysis codes developed in FRG are available to estimate radioactivity release amount/probability via off-gas/exhaustair lines in the case of accidents. (4) The computer codes developed in America for reactor-plant environmental transport/safety analyses of released radioactivity can be applied to reprocessing facilities. (author)

  19. Risk assessment of DOE defense program packages in a beyond 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A comprehensive program is being conducted by the DOE to determine the risks related to the domestic transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear weapons. The program is designed to identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences which may exceed the 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment A major objective of this program being performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of Utah is to provide the DOE with the methodology and bases for evaluating highway transportation activities by DOE contractors. This paper describes the approach and the HITRA model which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and route specific data associated with the proposed transportation activity. The model is capable of providing detailed, location and time specific data for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE defense program materials shipments

  20. Safety and risk questions following the nuclear incidents and accidents in Japan. Summary final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the nuclear accidents in Japan, GRS has carried out in-depth investigations of the events. On the one hand, the accident sequences in the affected units have been analysed from various viewpoints. On the other hand, the transferability of the findings to German plants has been examined to possibly make recommendations for safety improvements. The accident sequences at Fukushima Daiichi have been traced with as much detail as possible based on all available information. Additional insights have been drawn from thermohydraulic analyses with the GRS code system ATHLET-CD/COCOSYS focusing on the events in units 2 and 3, e.g. with regard to core damage and the state of the containments in the first days of the accident sequence. In-depth investigations have also been carried out on topics such as natural external hazards, electrical power supply or organizational measures. In addition, methodological studies on further topics related with the accidents have been performed. Through a detailed analysis of the relevant data from the events in Japan, the basis for an in-depth examination of the transferability to German plants was created. It was found that an implementation of most of the insights gained from the investigations had already been initiated as part of the GRS information notice 2012/02. Further findings have been communicated to the federal government and introduced into other relevant bodies, e.g. the Nuclear Safety Standards Committee (KTA) or the Reactor Safety Commission (RSK).

  1. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government.

  2. Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Bostrom, Ann; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Lazrus, Heather

    2015-11-01

    Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision-focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals' perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others' decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system-wide management of uncertainty in decisions. PMID:25988286

  3. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashim, Yusof bin [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang 26300 Kuantan, Pahang (Malaysia); Taha, Zahari bin [Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering, Malaysia Pahang, 26600 Pekan, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  4. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  5. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents

  6. 基于模糊神经网络的交通事故微观预测方法研究%Research on Microcosmic Forecast Methods of Road Accidents Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘金; 邓卫

    2011-01-01

    The microcosmic prediction of road accidents consists of the prediction of highway section and intersection accidents. Based on an overall summary about the existed superior and inferior forecast methods, the improvement direction in the existed prediction methods was discussed, an accident microcosmic prediction method based on fuzzy neural network wasput forward, then the network structure and learning algorithm were analyzed; an instance analysis was carried out with the traffic accident census data of Shihezi. An influence factor of highway section was selected as an import variable, then, the algorithm of fuzzy neural network was realized through Matlab program. Compared with the negative binomial regression model and BP neural network, the advantage of the fuzzy neural network model was examined.%道路交通事故微观预测包括对路段和交叉口事故指标的预测.本文总结现有预测方法的优劣性,探讨现有预测方法的改善方向,提出了基于模糊神经网络的交通事故微观预测方法,分析了网络结构和学习算法。以石河子市交通事故调查数据进行实例分析,选择路段事故影响因素作为输入变量,通过Matlab编程实现模糊神经网络的算法,并与负二项回归模型、BP神经网络模型作出比较,证明了模糊神经网络模型的优越性。

  7. A probability risk assessment for MACSTOR/KN-400 during an air inlet blockage accident sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The safety assessment framework for evaluating the spent fuel dry storage facility during the air inlet blockage accident composing of three phases has been established and applied to an interim storage system. They include the analysis of the failure probability of a basket and a cylinder, the accident modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility and the accident consequence assessments. The first phase of the analysis calculated the module failure probability by modeling of the basket and the cylinder, which is major element for containing radioactive substances. The second phase includes a modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility. At this phase, the probability that radioactive substances are released to outside when the initial event happens has been calculated by the construction of the event tree methods against a various elements which affects the air inlet blockage accident. At the third phase of releasing radioactive substances, the radiation damage to affect neighborhood and storage facility worker using MACCS2 code has been evaluated quantitatively. (author)

  8. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei; Zhou, Ying; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-12-01

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public's attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship between acceptance of nuclear power and the risk perception factors while controlling for demographic variables. Meanwhile, we assessed the median public acceptable frequencies for three levels of nuclear events. The FNA had a significant impact on risk perception of the Chinese public, especially on the factor of perceived risk, which increased from limited risk to great risk. Public acceptance of nuclear power decreased significantly after the FNA. The most sensitive groups include females, those not in public service, those with lower income, and those living close to the Tianwan nuclear power plant. Fifty percent of the survey respondents considered it acceptable to have a nuclear anomaly no more than once in 50 y. For nuclear incidents and serious incidents, the frequencies are once in 100 y and 150 y, respectively. The change in risk perception and acceptance may be attributed to the FNA. Decreased acceptance of nuclear power after the FNA among the Chinese public creates additional obstacles to further development of nuclear power in China and require effective communication strategies.

  9. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents; Notfallschutz und Risk Governance. Zur nuklearen Sicherheit bei Kernkraftwerksunfaellen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuhlen, Johannes

    2014-07-01

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  10. Discharge forecasting using MODIS and radar altimetry: potential application for transboundary flood risk management in Niger-Benue River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarpanelli, Angelica; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is one of most widespread natural disasters in the world. Its impact is particularly severe and destructive in Asia and Africa, because the living conditions of some settlements are inadequate to cope with this type of natural hazard. In this context, the estimation of discharge is extremely important to address water management and flood risk assessment. However, the inadequate monitoring network hampers any control and prediction activity that could improve these disastrous situations. In the last few years, remote sensing sensors have demonstrated their effectiveness in retrieving river discharge, especially in supporting discharge nowcasting and forecasting activities. Recently, the potential of radar altimetry was apparent when used for estimating water levels in an ungauged river site with good accuracy. It has also become a very useful tool for estimation and prediction of river discharge. However, the low temporal resolution of radar altimeter observations (10 or 35 days, depending on the satellite mission) may be not suitable for day-by-day hydrological forecasting. Differently, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), considering its proven potential for quantifying the variations in discharge of the rivers at daily time resolution may be more suited to this end. For these reasons, MODIS and radar altimetry data were used in this study to predicting and forecasting the river discharge along the Niger-Benue River, where severe flooding with extensive damage to property and loss of lives occurred. Therefore, an effective method to forecast flooding can support efforts towards creating an early warning system. In order to estimate river discharge, four MODIS products (daily, 8-day, and from AQUA and TERRA satellites) connected at three sites (two gauged and one ungauged) were used. The capability of remote sensing sensors to forecast discharge a few days in advance at a downstream section using MODIS and ENVISAT radar altimetry data

  11. Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

    2012-04-01

    In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

  12. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  13. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded...... identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  14. Backtesting Value-at-Risk using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons, a Comment on the Forecast Rationality Tests of A.J. Patton and A. Timmermann

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogerheide, L.F.; Ravazzolo, F.; van Dijk

    2011-01-01

    textabstractPatton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a regression that only involves (long-horizon and short-horizon) forecasts and no observations on the target variable. We propose an extension, a simulation-based procedure that takes into account th...

  15. Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao WANG; Fanghua HAO; Xuan ZHANG; Wen SUN; Hongguang CHENG

    2008-01-01

    Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of envir-onmental management studies. Severe gas H2S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor under-standing and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H2S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan "Pu Guang gas field" as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up tech-nique of puffs to simulate the H2S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H2S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind dir-ection, and due to the obstruction of the mountain's body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing con-dition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H2S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.

  16. Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

  17. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

  18. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Volume 6, Part 2: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analyses, and uncertainty analysis. The internal event analysis is documented in Volume 2. The internal fire and internal flood analysis are documented in Volumes 3 and 4, respectively. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associated, Inc. A phased approach was used in the level 2/3 PRA program, however both phases addressed the risk from only mid-loop operation. The first phase of the level 2/3 PRA was initiated in late 1991 and consisted of an Abridged Risk Study. This study was completed in May 1992 and was focused on accident progression and consequences, conditional on core damage. Phase 2 is a more detailed study in which an evaluation of risk during mid-loop operation was performed. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6. This report, Volume 6, Part 2, consists of five appendices containing supporting information for: the PDS (plant damage state) analysis; the accident progression analysis; the source term analysis; the consequence analysis; and the Melcor analysis. 73 figs., 21 tabs

  19. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parco S

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sergio Parco, Fulvia Vascotto, Roberto Simeone, Patrizia Visconti Department of Health Technology Assessment, Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy Background: Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Methods: Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012–2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV, and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. Results: In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012–2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%, 59 blood splashes (37.34%, and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%. The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34

  20. Simulation of beyond design basis accidents : a contribution to risk analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Accident management (AM) programmes are considered to be an important stepin the defense in depth concept for nuclear power plants. By carefully analyzing possible accident conditions in advance, a nuclear power plant operator may use plant equipment outside of its foreseen functions to cope with situations beyond the design of the plant. Accident management programmes have been first introduced in NPP in the USA, but are now also widely adopted in Europe. The introduction of AM in Republics of the former Soviet Union is a rather recent development. The present work has been performed as part of a Europaid Project with the goal to support the development of AM for the VVER 1000, a pressurized water reactor used in Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, India, Iran, China, Czech Republic. The project was part of the nuclear TACIS programme with the aim to enhance the safety of Russian nuclear reactors. The project had several objectives. Main goal was to execute complex experiments on the PSB-VVER integral test facility. The facility is a full height, 1:300 volume and power scaled model of the VVER 1000. Twelve experiment and three additional single variant experiments have been executed. The initiating events for the experiments were small break loss of coolant accidents, primary to secondary side leaks, loss of feed water and station black out. In addition, multiple failures of the safety systems and accident management strategies like primary side and secondary side depressurization, and injection into primary and/or secondary side with non standard equipment have been assumed. The experimental database has been used to qualify the codes Relap5 and Cathare2 for simulation of beyond design basis accidents at the VVER 1000, by performing code - experiment comparisons. All experiments have been tried to predict at a pre- and post test level. Although the PSB-VVER facility is well scaled, the behavior of the real NPP will differ considerable. Therefore, the experiments serve to

  1. Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Li, Q B; Su, G F; Yuan, M Q

    2015-04-01

    The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p 80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error).

  2. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks: a study of an iron-ore mine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, F

    1996-09-01

    This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s and consequent changes in job content. It was hypothesized that the combined effect of these factors might lead accident risks, both non-specific (aggregated) and specific (by kind), to increase with age. Accident risk ratios (ARRs), however, proved to be higher for younger workers than older ones, in both the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological changes designed to increase productivity and reduce staffing levels more rapidly affect efficiency and productivity than they do accident occurrence, and that they penalize young workers in the first instance. PMID:8899044

  3. The importance of human performance and procedures in limiting severe accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Due to the defense in depth concept and redundancy in safety systems utilized, complex industrial plants, such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) can be operated safely. This capability has been demonstrated by many years of safe operation by numerous NPPs in the US and abroad. However, the occurrence of severe accidents has also demonstrated that constant vigilance in a number of areas is necessary to ensure continued safe operation. The areas noted as particularly important are Design, Organization and Management, Maintenance, and Operations (Human Performance). 18 refs

  4. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  6. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms - STU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this project is to address the key uncertainties associated with a number of fission product release and transport phenomena in a wider context and to assess their relevance to key severe accident sequences. This project is a wide-based analysis involving eight reactor designs that are representative of the reactors currently operating in the European Union (EU). In total, 20 accident sequences covering a wide range of conditions have been chosen to provide the basis for sensitivity studies. The appraisal is achieved through a systematic risk-based framework developed within this project. Specifically, this is a quantitative interpretation of the sensitivity calculations on the basis of 'significance indicators', applied above defined threshold values. These threshold values represent a good surrogate for 'large release', which is defined in a number of EU countries. In addition, the results are placed in the context of in-containment source term limits, for advanced light water reactor designs, as defined by international guidelines. Overall, despite the phenomenological uncertainties, the predicted source terms (both into the containment, and subsequently, into the environment) do not display a high degree of sensitivity to the individual fission product issues addressed in this project. This is due, mainly, to the substantial capacity for the attenuation of airborne fission products by the designed safety provisions and the natural fission product retention mechanisms within the containment

  7. 基于动态风险平衡的海洋平台事故连锁风险研究%On the risk chain of the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents based on the dynamic risk balance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭恒; 陈国明; 朱渊

    2012-01-01

    The present paper is aimed at introducing a dynamic model for the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents proposed by the authors based on the two concepts, that is, the accident impetus and accident obstruction. As is well known, due to its own restricted conditions, offshore platforms, on the event of fire or explosion, are likely to suffer tragic casualties and material losses, letting alone the environmental contamination. Based on investigating and analyzing plenty of offshore platform accidents both at home and abroad, we have brought forward a new approach to dealing with such tragic accidents, that is, to finding the accident dynamic model characterized as dynamic nature and transient stability. As a matter of fact, a regular oil-drilling platform tends to present a dynamic equilibrium state between the accident impetus and the accident obstruction, while the accident dynamic state indicates a kind of energy that tends to lead to the happening of an accident whereas there exists some kind of transmitting impetus that passes on the energy that may obstruct or prevent the accident from occurring. In view of the dynamic risk balance, we have come up with the accident dynamic model consisting of four steps: first of all, the offshore platform likely to lead to grave accidents are chosen as an object of study, and next, the corresponding factors likely to cause the accidents are analyzed from the points of view of accident-incidence process, and, last of all, the countermeasures were taken in engineering, technology and management. What's more, the risk statistical data and information concerning the accident chains are to be built up when the elementary accident impetus has been determined. And, by this moment, it would be necessary to work out the probability distribution of all transmitting impetus and obstruction factors in the circumstance that the elementary accident-incidence dynamic has been calculated. Furthermore, the analysis results should be made

  8. TEPCO's risk communication activities in Fukushima Prefecture in light of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper introduces the risk communication activities of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) in Fukushima Prefecture. It analyzed the organizational cause as the background for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident, and concluded that the root cause of the accident is the thought that 'safety has already been secured, and operation rate and the like are important management issues, which incurred the insufficient preparedness for accident.' It has taken six measures as nuclear safety reform plans. One of these is the 'enhancement of risk communication activities.' The nuclear power leader take the initiative to disclose risk under the idea that 'there is no absolute safety (zero risk) in nuclear power,' and promote risk communication for continuously obtaining the understanding of the regional community and society about safety measures, etc. To implement risk communication, 'risk communicators' are installed, and they propose for the management and nuclear leader, about the risk perception and measures associated with public disclosure and its limit, and perform risk communication in accordance with the policy. As the examples of these initiatives, this paper introduces the cases of Fukushima Prefecture, questionnaire study, and evaluations by international organizations. (A.O.)

  9. Leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident:. Estimation of radiation risks (1986-1995)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivanov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Tsyb, A.F. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Gorsky, A.I. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Maksyutov, M.A. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Rastopchin, E.M. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Konogorov, A.P. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Korelo, A.M. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Biryukov, A.P. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Matyash, V.A. [Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1997-02-01

    This work focuses on the direct epidemiological assessment of the risks of radiation-induced leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers (EW) after the Chernobyl accident. The Russian National Medical Dosimetric Registry (RNMDR) contains data for 168 000 EW as of January 1, 1996. The analysis relates to 48 leukaemias and 47 thyroid cancers, diagnosed and verified. Radiation risks are estimated by comparing the EW data with national data for a male population of the same age distribution. For leukaemia, an excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) of 4.30 (95% CI: 0.83, 7.75) is obtained, while the excess absolute risk per 10{sup 4} person-years (PY) Gy (EAR/10{sup 4} PY Gy) is found to be 1.31 (95% CI: 0.23, 2.39); for thyroid cancer an ERR/Gy of 5.31 (95% CI: 0.04, 10.58) is obtained, and an EAR/10{sup 4} PY Gy of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.08, 2.22). (orig.). With 9 figs., 10 tabs.

  10. Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement; Donnees metrologiques et evaluation des risques en France lors de l'accident de Tchernobyl (26 avril 1986). Mise au point historique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galle, P. [Ecole Nationale Veterinaire d' Alfort, Lab. de Physique et Chimie, 94 - Maisons Alfort (France); Paulin, R. [Groupe de Recherche en Radiotoxicologie, GRT, 13 - Marseille (France); Coursaget, J. [Hopital de l' Hotel Dieu, Service de Medecine Nucleaire, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-08-01

    Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement. The authors indicate the origin of the data used by the French Public Health Authority in 1986 to estimate the risk of the radioactive fall out following the Chernobyl accident. The technical means developed in order to establish this data, and the precedent experience gained, are described. The principal results are given. The terms of the 28 May 1986 note to the Academy of Sciences by R. Latarjet, which concluded that the low level of this fallout did not justify any countermeasure, except the control of the imported food, are confirmed. Rational dispositions are required in order to improve the information of the population, referring to the Swedish model, which involves the intervention of the medical staff specialized in radio-toxicology, radio-pathology, nuclear medicine, and especially trained. To cite this article: P. Galle et al., C. R. Biologies 326 (2003). (authors)

  11. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  12. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

  13. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

  14. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  15. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  16. Insights of probabilistic risk analysis on the development of severe accident management guidance: a case study for a plant similar to ANGRA I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) surges as a way to evaluate the risk of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and to quantify it. Its objective was to track sequences of accidents and define mitigate actions to prevent core damage. But when the core is damaged the question is how to avoid releases of radionuclides to the environment. PRA evaluates this scenario too and is input to the Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG). This paper aims in the interaction between PRA and SAMG, both under development for the Brazilian NPPs, focusing in one specific Plant Damage State (PDS). The objective is to develop an Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) proposing the mitigate actions for the event, helping to understand the phenomena.(author)

  17. Development of intergrated accident management assessment technology; development of interface modules of risk-monitoring system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, S. K.; Park, S. K.; Seok, H.; Kim, D. K.; Han, J. K.; Park, B. R. [KOPEC, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    Based on the development of interface modules with FORTE.- DynaRM can quantify risk model very fast (Very frequent risk model quantification is needed for configuration risk management).- risk monitoring system technology transfer to foreign NPPs. Contribution to component failure and maintenance control automation with the development of Tagging control System. On-Line risk monitoring system development by joint team between Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and KOPEC is a request by KEPCO. The softwares developed in this study is easily implemented at domestic NPPs without extra study or cost. Economic benefit and Software export to foreign NPPs are expected because of the development of technology related to risk monitoring system and its management. 6 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  18. The Aftereffect Forecast and Analysis for Accidents of Uranium Explosive%含铀材料化学爆炸事故后果预测与分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    段中山; 罗永锋; 袁伟; 尚爱国

    2011-01-01

    Chemical explosion accidents of uranium materials produce radioactive aerosol endangering human health. It discusses the formation and hazard of uranium aerosol. According to the different wind speed, meteorological factors and geographic conditions, the Hotspot nuclear accident aftereffect evaluation model was used to calculate radiation characters, which comparison and analysis conform to the record of the relevant documents The computational results show that different wind speed, meteorological factors and geographic conditions correspond to different features of radiation and some rules, which has obvious effect on radiant hazard and disposal.%含铀材料化学爆炸事故会产生放射性气溶胶危害人体健康.探讨了铀气溶胶的形成及危害,针对不同风速、天气因素和地貌状况,应用Hotspot核事故后果评价模型定量计算了有关辐射特征量,结合相关文献记录,对其进行比较和分析.计算结果显示,不同的风速、天气因素和地貌状况都会对应着相应不同的辐射特征量,并具有一定的规律性,对辐射危害防护及处置有着明显的影响.

  19. Perception of Radiation Risk by Japanese Radiation Specialists Evaluated as a Safe Dose Before the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Miwa; Ono, Koji; Yamauchi, Motohiro; Matsuda, Naoki

    2016-06-01

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals from radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they considered as a "safe dose" of radiation for themselves, their partners, parents, children, siblings, and friends. Although the 'safe dose' they noted varied widely, from less than 1 mSv y to more than 100 mSv y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv y, which is around the middle point between the legal exposure dose limits for the annual average and for any single year. Similar results were obtained from other surveys of members of the Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv y) and of the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv y). Among family members and friends, the minimum average "safe" dose was 8.5 mSv y for children, for whom 50% of the responders claimed a "safe dose" of less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the radiation professional also affected their notion of a "safe dose." These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely even for radiation professionals and that the legal exposure dose limits derived from regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety. The different levels of risk perception for different target groups among radiation professionals appear similar to those in the general population. The gap between these characteristics of radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might have played a role in the state of confusion after the radiological accident. PMID:27115222

  20. Estimates of radiation dose and health risks to the United States population following the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimates of both individual and collective doses received by the United States population following the Chernobyl accident have been made by using the data obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Ambient Monitoring System. Radionuclides associated with the debris first were measured in precipitation and surface air particulates at Portland, OR and Olympia, WA on 5 May 1986. Iodine-131 was the most consistently measured nuclide in all media, although several Cs and Ru isotopes also were observed. Strontium and any actinides notably were absent from the samples at the lower level of detection. The highest calculated individual-organ dose due to intake during May and June 1986 was 0.52 mSv to the infant thyroid in the state of Washington. This was predominantly (98%) from the ingestion of milk. The maximum U.S. collective dose equivalent to any organ was calculated to be 3,300 person-Sv to the thyroid. Risk estimates project three excess lung cancer deaths and an additional four deaths due to cancers of thyroid, breast and leukemia in the U.S. population over the next 45 y from exposure during the May-June 1986 interval. The only long-lived radionuclide measured in milk samples following the accident was 137Cs. We estimate 20 excess fatalities from the ingestion of 137Cs in milk during all subsequent years, with six of these due to lung cancer and the majority of the remainder distributed approximately equally among cancers of the thyroid, breast, liver and leukemia. A total of 100 excess fatalities from all dietary components was estimated. Because of the uncertainty of risk estimates from data such as those available for this study, all calculated values carry a range of uncertainty from a minimum of one-half the calculated value to a maximum of two times the calculated value

  1. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  2. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  3. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance......, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +-20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than +-40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  4. Risk perception in Western Europe 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research

    1999-12-01

    What have we learned about risk perception? Let me summarize a few highlights: Perceived risk is at the present highest with regard to acute economic needs, but the environment and nuclear technology are also important. Nuclear technology has a special role in being perceived as very low in 'control', i.e. if you can protect yourself from its hazards. Media do play an important role in risk perception, but it is more subtle than most often believed. Media do affect our beliefs by the information they bring us, but not necessarily by increasing the 'availability of what we already know'. Trust is not the primary factor in risk perception that it often is believed to be - it does play a role at a moderate level of power. It may be that trust is a necessary but not sufficient factor for risk 'acceptance'. In Western Europe, we have noted very large variations among countries both with regard to trust and perceived risk. Inclusion of other societies would probably have meant observation of even greater variation. The RISKPERCOM project serves as a starting point for further work on risk perception and technology. Attitudes and values need to be studied in a broader frame than merely perceived risk, as the project has shown. Future research on such acute topics as nuclear waste is called for; the project has already produced a number of results in that area but space restrictions preclude me from reviewing them here.

  5. 舟山港船舶溢油事故风险评估研究%Research of Risk Assessment on Oil Spill Accidents by Ship

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马甲益

    2012-01-01

    Mushroom growth of marine oil transportation would lead to the raising of the risk of oil spill accidents by ship year by year. As one of the important measures to prevent and control oil spill accidents by ship, scientific risk assessment of oil spill accidents by ship is becoming more and more valued. In the present article, through analyzing by synthesis to foregone oil spill accidents by ship in China and getting help from data of domestic oil spill accidents by ship and scientific assessment methods, probability and quantity of oil spill accidents by ship are predicted and assessed for Zhoushan port,conclusions and proposals are given to provide reference and basis for improving emergency response capability of oil spill accidents by ship.%国内海上油运的迅速发展将导致船舶溢油事故风险逐年增大,科学的船舶溢油事故风险评估作为船舶溢油事故防控工作的重要方面也越来越受到重视。通过对我国以往船舶溢油事故的综合分析,借助国内外溢油事故数据和科学的评估方法,对舟山港的溢油事故发生概率和溢油量进行了预测和评估。得出的结论和建议将为船舶溢油事故应急能力建设提供参考和初步依据。

  6. The psychology of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Incidents involving nuclear weapons are described, as well as the accident to the Three Mile Island-2 reactor. Methods of assessment of risks are discussed, with particular reference to subjective judgements and the possible role of human error in civil nuclear accidents. Accidents or misunderstandings in communication or human actions which might lead to nuclear war are also discussed. (U.K.)

  7. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China. PMID:24781332

  8. A RISK MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR PREVENTING UNMANNED AIR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüdayim BAŞAK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to investigate operationally risky areas by analyzing dangers which can arise during the maintenance and flight activities of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs. For this purpose, a risk analysis methodology was introduced and then within the framework of the application, a sample of risk management model was developed. During the development of the model, personal experiences in the area of UAVs were benefited and a risk management technique consisting of five steps used by pioneering international aviation companies in fliht safety was utilized.

  9. Tritium accident containment within a large fusion enclosure: cost, benefit, and risk considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Containment of a tritium accident within a large fusion device building will be difficult and costly. Complete containment is impossible, and with this fact in mind, the global dispersion and health effects of tritium are reviewed. Atmospheric tritium emissions lead to an estimated population dose to the Northern Hemisphere of 5.6 x 10-3 man-rem/Ci, which may also be interpreted as 1 cancer fatality per MCi. Updating the NRC $1000 per man-rem criterion to 1982 costs gives 9.5 $/y per Ci/y as the unit annual health benefit rate from averting tritium release at a continuous rate. Present worth considerations lead to an estimate of $100 per Ci/y for the maximum capital investment justified per expected curie per year of tritium release averted. A simplified enclosure model is used to explore the trade-off between processing capacity and recycle time with the health cost of residual tritium release included in the analysis

  10. SHAPES: A new survey on accident risks and injuries in commuter cyclists in Belgium

    OpenAIRE

    de Geus, B.; Vandenbulcke, G.; Int Panis, Luc; Torfs, R; Degraeuwe, B.; I Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The health enhancing effects of regular bicycling (e.g. commuter cycling) are well known, however this health benefit has also a negative aspect especially when safety is neglected. Bicyclists have a higher risk of being injured than any other group of road users. They are “unprotected” in traffic, despite being capable of reaching high speeds. This increases the risk and severity of the injury. Bicycle related injury statistics from police, hospital and insurance statistics are well describe...

  11. Application of MODIS GPP to Forecast Risk of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Based on Fluctuations in Reservoir Population Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, R.; Heinsch, F. A.; Mills, J. N.; Wagoner, K.; Running, S.

    2003-12-01

    Recent predictive models for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) have used remotely sensed spectral reflectance data to characterize risk areas with limited success. We present an alternative method using gross primary production (GPP) from the MODIS sensor to estimate the effects of biomass accumulation on population density of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse), the principal reservoir species for Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of diagnosed HPS cases in North America are attributed to SNV, which is transmitted to humans through inhalation of excretions and secretions from infected rodents. A logistic model framework is used to evaluate MODIS GPP, temperature, and precipitation as predictors of P. maniculatus density at established trapping sites across the western United States. Rodent populations are estimated using monthly minimum number alive (MNA) data for 2000 through 2002. Both local meteorological data from nearby weather stations and 1.25 degree x 1 degree gridded data from the NASA DAO were used in the regression model to determine the spatial sensitivity of the response. MODIS eight-day GPP data (1-km resolution) were acquired and binned to monthly average and monthly sum GPP for 3km x 3km grids surrounding each rodent trapping site. The use of MODIS GPP to forecast HPS risk may result in a marked improvement over past reflectance-based risk area characterizations. The MODIS GPP product provides a vegetation dynamics estimate that is unique to disease models, and targets the fundamental ecological processes responsible for increased rodent density and amplified disease risk.

  12. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  13. Risk assessment of radioactive and hazardous materials in DOE defence package transport accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A programme is being conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to determine the risks to the public from domestic transport of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear defence materials. The programme will identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences, particularly for those transport packages that may not meet the 10 CFR 71.73 (US Code of Federal Regulations) test criteria because of configuration or content. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the University of Utah will provide the DOE with the bases and methodology for establishing rigorous, quantitative acceptance criteria for evaluating and certifying highway transport activities by DOE contractors. The Highway Transportation Risk Assessment (HITRA) model is described which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and utilises transport route specific data. The HITRA model provides detailed, location and time specific data and analysis for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE shipments along a given specific highway transport route and for other site-specific factors. (Author)

  14. Telematics and Gender Discrimination: Some Usage-Based Evidence on Whether Men’s Risk of Accidents Differs from Women’s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes Ayuso

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD, or usage-based automobile insurance (UBI, is a policy agreement tied to vehicle usage. In this paper we analyze the effect of the distance traveled on the risk of accidents among young drivers with a PAYD policy. We use regression models for survival data to estimate how long it takes them to have their first accident at fault during the coverage period. Our empirical application with real data is presented and shows that gender differences are mainly attributable to the intensity of use. Indeed, although gender has a significant effect in explaining the time to the first crash, this effect is no longer significant when the average distance traveled per day is introduced in the model. This suggests that gender differences in the risk of accidents are, to a large extent, attributable to the fact that men drive more often than women. Estimates of the time to the first accident for different driver risk types are presented. We conclude that no gender discrimination is necessary if telematics provides enough information on driving habits.

  15. [Soft tissue calcifications in panoramic radiography. A risk factor for cerebrovascular accidents?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariayi, Ayesha Shekeba; Berndt, Dorothea; Lambrecht, J Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Panoramic radiography is a basic diagnostic tool in the dental field where calcifications are seen occasionally in the lateral parts of the x-ray. The differential diagnosis are carotid artery atheromas, calcified submandibular lymphnodes and sialoliths of the submandibular gland. 4007 panoramic radiographs (100%) from patients >40 years were scanned retrospectively. Special emphasis was given to the carotid artery territory (CAT). 225 soft tissue calcifications were found (5.6%). 144 patients had calcifications in the CAT (3.6%), 73 showed calcified submandibular lymphnodes (1.8%), and 8 (0.2%) sialoliths. The female to male ratio was 54.7%:45.3%. Pneumatic diseases were beside hypertension and smoking a risk factor for CAT calcification. Carotid artery atheromas are the main risk for cerebrovascular insults. Dentists can help to detect patients at risk for stroke. Their patients can be referred for further diagnostics (ultrasound). PMID:19954131

  16. Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Caillault, Cyril; Dominique GUEGAN

    2009-01-01

    Using non-parametric and parametric models, we show that the bivariate distribution of an Asian portfolio is not stable along all the period under study. We suggest several dynamic models to compute two market risk measures, the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall: the RiskMetrics methodology, the Multivariate GARCH models, the Multivariate Markov-Switching models, the empirical histogram and the dynamic copulas. We discuss the choice of the best method with respect to the policy managem...

  17. Transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predicting the possible consequences of transportation accidents provides a severe challenge to an analyst who must make a judgment of the likely consequences of a release event at an unpredictable time and place. Since it is impractical to try to obtain detailed knowledge of the meteorology and terrain for every potential accident location on a route or to obtain accurate descriptions of population distributions or sensitive property to be protected (data which are more likely to be more readily available when one deals with fixed-site problems), he is constrained to make conservative assumptions in response to a demanding public audience. These conservative assumptions are frequently offset by very small source terms (relative to a fixed site) created when a transport vehicle is involved in an accident. For radioactive materials, which are the principal interest of the authors, only the most elementary models have been used for assessing the consequences of release of these materials in the transportation setting. Risk analysis and environmental impact statements frequently have used the Pasquill-Gifford/gaussian techniques for releases of short duration, which are both simple and easy to apply and require a minimum amount of detailed information. However, after deciding to use such a model, the problem of selecting what specific parameters to use in specific transportation situations still presents itself. Additional complications arise because source terms are not well characterized, release rates can be variable over short and long time periods, and mechanisms by which source aerosols become entrained in air are not always obvious. Some approaches that have been used to address these problems will be reviewed with emphasis on guidelines to avoid the Worst-Case Scenario Syndrome

  18. Relationship Between Driving-violation Behaviours and Risk Perception in Motorcycle Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy S.K. Cheng

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: This study could assist occupational-therapy practitioners involved in driving rehabilitation and training to identify strategies to deal with drivers' violation behaviours and risk perception. It could also provide evidence-based recommendations for drivers' education, driving-safety campaigns, or even licensing policies.

  19. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?; Welche Folgen hat der Kernkraftwerksunfall in Fukushima fuer die Bewertung von Kernenergierisiken?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. Sozialwissenshaften V; Gallego Carrera, Diana [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). ZIRIUS Zentrum fuer Interdiszipliaere Risiko- und Innovationsforschung

    2015-06-01

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  20. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intraday Range

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.W.S. Chen (Cathy); R. Gerlach (Richard); B.B.K. Hwang (Bruce); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractValue-at-Risk (VaR) is commonly used for financial risk measurement. It has recently become even more important, especially during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We propose some novel nonlinear threshold conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViar) models that incorporate intra-day pric

  1. Management of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The definition and the multidimensionality aspects of accident management have been reviewed. The suggested elements in the development of a programme for severe accident management have been identified and discussed. The strategies concentrate on the two tiered approaches. Operative management utilizes the plant's equipment and operators capabilities. The recovery managment concevtrates on preserving the containment, or delaying its failure, inhibiting the release, and on strategies once there has been a release. The inspiration for this paper was an excellent overview report on perspectives on managing severe accidents in commercial nuclear power plants and extending plant operating procedures into the severe accident regime; and by the most recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) considering the question of risk reduction and source term reduction through accident prevention, management and mitigation. The latter document concludes that 'active development of accident management measures by plant personnel can lead to very large reductions in source terms and risk', and goes further in considering and formulating the key issue: 'The most fruitful path to follow in reducing risk even further is through the planning of accident management.' (author)

  2. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome as an accident risk factor in professional drivers in Yekaterinburg. Dangerous Sleep (DS-1 study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Belkin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available About 20% of all road traffic accidents may be associated with falling asleep while driving. This may be caused by sleep disorders leading to daytime sleepiness, the most common of which is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS. Objective: to study somatic and mental health, sleep disorders, OSAS in particular, in the population of Russian drivers (Sverdlovsk Region. Patients and methods. The descriptive cohort «Dangerous Sleep» (DS-1 study of 20 professional drivers having more than 5-year driving experience was conducted at the Clinical Institute of the Brain. The mean age of the drivers was 45.8 years. They underwent somatic evaluation for cardiovascular risk factors and a psychological examination involving a risk readiness diagnostic procedure, the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and an electroencephalographic examination. A somnological examination assumed testing using the Epworth sleepiness scale, polysomnography, or overnight pulse metry. Results and discussion. 30% of the drivers were found to have marked attention disorders and an inability to adapt to extreme conditions, which create a risk for professional duties. The predisposing factors were noted to be alcohol addiction, overweight, and OSAS, the rate of the latter proved to be higher than that in the general population of able-bodied men. It was shown that a somnological examination should be obligatorily performed while hiring professional drivers, particularly to long hauliers. The drivers having a long length of experience, in whom a periodic examination detects sleep disorders, should be treated for somatic diseases and should also have individual working schedules to rule out their long night-time driving. 

  3. COMPARING SAFE VS. AT-RISK BEHAVIORAL DATA TO PREDICT ACCIDENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2001-11-01

    The Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR) program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other’s behaviors. One purpose for performing these observations is that it gives the observers the opportunity to correct, if needed, their co-worker’s at-risk work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of doing this is that major injuries (e.g., OSHA-recordable events) are prevented from occurring because the lower level at-risk behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted unsafe behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. However, unlike other observation programs, SOAR also emphasizes positive reinforcement for safe behaviors observed. The underlying premise of doing this is that positive reinforcement of safe behaviors helps establish a strong positive safety culture. Since the SOAR program collects both safe and at-risk leading indicator data, this provides a unique opportunity to assess and compare the two kinds of data in terms of their ability to predict future adverse safety events. This paper describes the results of analyses performed on SOAR data to assess their relative predictive ability. Implications are discussed.

  4. Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust

  5. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  6. NOAA's Integrated Tsunami Database: Data for improved forecasts, warnings, research, and risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly

    2015-04-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center

  7. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    OpenAIRE

    European Union. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work

    2013-01-01

    Significant changes which are taking place in the world of work lead to emerging psychosocial risks. Such risks, which are linked to the way work is designed, organised and managed, as well as to the economic and social context of work, result in an increased level of stress and can lead to serious deterioration of mental and physical health. In 2005, more than 20% of workers from the EU believed that their health is at risk because of work-related stress. The report presents the results of t...

  8. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  9. Somatic symptoms in women 11 years after the Chornobyl accident: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromet, Evelyn J; Gluzman, Semyon; Schwartz, Joseph E; Goldgaber, Dmitry

    2002-08-01

    Exposure to the Chornobyl nuclear power plant explosion resulted in widespread, persistent somatic complaints, but little is known about the nature and risk factors for these conditions. This study compares the health reports of 300 women evacuated to Kyiv from the contamination zone around the plant and 300 controls with a child in the same homeroom as the evacuees in 1997. The interview addressed somatic concerns, risk factors for poor health, and Chornobyl-related stress. Compared with controls, evacuees reported significantly more health problems and rated their health more poorly overall. These differences remained significant after controlling for demographic and clinical risk factors, including the tendency to amplify physical symptoms. Significantly more evacuees received a diagnosis of a Chornobyl-related illness by a local physician, believed that their health and their children's health had been adversely affected, and were positive for Chornobyl-induced post-traumatic stress disorder. After controlling for these Chornobyl stress variables, the differences in number of health problems commonly attributed to Chornobyl remained significant but differences in general health ratings did not. The perceptions of controls were similar to those of women in a national sample. The relationship between Chornobyl stress and illness was twice as strong in evacuees (odds ratio = 6.95) as in Kyiv controls (odds ratio = 3.34) and weakest in the national sample (odds ratio = 1.64). The results confirm the persistence and nonspecificity of the subjective medical consequences of Chornobyl and are consistent with the hypothesis that traumatic events exert their greatest negative impacts on health in vulnerable or disadvantaged groups.

  10. Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Sitakanta; Ahmed, Mansoor

    2014-04-01

    In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

  11. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  12. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  13. Re-suspension of the radioactive fallout after the Fukushima accident: risk of internal dose during the first week and the first two months

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, M.; Takeda, M.; Makino, M.; Owada, T.

    2012-04-01

    The nuclear accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 contaminated an area of more than 100 km in diameter by radioactive material with amount of about 10-20% of that by the Chernobyl accident. According to the Chernobyl experience, a part of fallout radionuclide is expected to be re-suspended by wind, causing possible risk of internal dose. However, this re-suspension process and its amounts have not been studied very much due to the difficulty of direct measurement of low-density dusts. To estimate forms and periods of the re-suspension of the radioactive fallout, we used both the radiation dose rate data and vertical (downward) component of the DC electric field near the ground, or potential gradient (PG) at Kakioka, 150 km away from the accident site. The data indicates: (1) During 14-15 March, the radioactive dust is most likely suspended in the air near the ground. (2) During 2-7 UT on 16 March, the radioactive dust is most likely blown up from the surface by the strong wind from the non-contaminated area. (3) During 16-20 March, the radioactive dust most likely stayed re-suspended. (4) After the wet contamination on 20 March until late April, the radioactive fallout on the ground are re-suspended during daytime by daily convection due to sunshine, and transported to downwind direction. (5) At more than 30 km distance from the accident site, the re-suspension most likely ceased by the end of April. However, no data is available within 20 km distance from the accident site. Yamauchi, et al. (2012): Settlement process of radioactive dust to the ground inferred from the atmospheric electric field measurement, Ann. Geophys., 30, 49-56, doi:10.5194/angeo-30-49-2012. Yamauchi (2012): Secondary wind transport of radioactive materials after the Fukushima accident, Earth Planet Space, accepted for publication.

  14. Uncertainties due to soil data in Flood Risk Forecasts with the Water Balance Model LARSIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitterer, Johannes

    2016-04-01

    Reliable flood forecasts with quantitative statements about contained uncertainties are essential for far reaching decisions in disaster management. In this paper uncertainties resulting from soil data are analysed for the in the German-speaking world widely used water balance model LARSIM and quantified as far as possible. At the beginning a structural and statistical analysis about the wittingly simple designed soil module is performed. It consists of a storage volume with four separate runoff components only defined by the storage size. Additionally, the model structure is examined with regard to effects of uncertain soil data using a soil map from the Bavarian State Institute for Forestry which already contains estimated minimum and maximum values for important soil parameters. For further analysis, two German catchments in Upper Franconia located at the White Main with a size of 250 km² each, covering a huge variety of soil types are used as case examples. Skeleton is identified as an important source of uncertainty in soil data comparing the quantifiable information of available soil maps and using field and laboratory analysis. Furthermore, surface runoff and fast interflow fluxes show up to be sensitive for peaks of flood events, whereas slow interflow and base flow fluxes have smaller and more long term effects on discharges and the water balance. A reduction of the soil storage basically leads to a more intensified reaction of discharges than an enlargement. The calculation of two extreme scenarios within the statistical analysis result in simulated gage measurements varying from -42 % till +218 % compared to the scenario with the main value of the map. A percental variation of the soil storage shows a doubling of the flood discharges, if the storage size is halved and a reduction up to 20% using a doubled one. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation is performed using the statistical data of the soil map combined with a normal distribution, whereby the

  15. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

  16. MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY AMONG EMERGENCY WORKERS OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: ASSESSMENT OF RADIATION RISKS FOR THE FOLLOW-UP PERIOD OF 1992-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Ivanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Morbidity and mortality among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow- up period of 199Morbidity and mortality among the emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow-up period of 1992-2008 is analyzed in the article. The cohort consists of 47141 emergency workers of 1986-1987. Radiation risks for cancer morbidity (ERR/Gy is 0.76; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.42, p-value=0008 and cancer mortality (ERR/Gy is 0.95; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.89, p-value=0.01 are statistically significant. Radiation risk for vascular diseases is assessed as well.

  17. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%. PMID:26660752

  18. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%.

  19. ACCURATE FORECAST AS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC RISK OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kymratova A. M.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the ways of reducing the financial, economic and social risks on the basis of an accurate prediction. We study the importance of natural time series of winter wheat yield, minimum winter, winter-spring daily temperatures. The feature of the time series of this class is disobeying a normal distribution, there is no visible trend

  20. The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safety in air traffic is a multilayered concept and consists of many safety barriers. The practical side of increasing safety is mainly based on analysing the causes of accidents and incidents. This analysis leads to finding gaps in the safety structure and to developing corrective recommendations in order to eliminate them. In this paper we indicate that this practice is insufficient. Most incidents could transform into accidents with fatalities. The standard method of investigating incidents does not answer the question as to whether safety barrier is permanent or whether it was activated accidentally. This paper proposes a new method for analysing incidents aimed at finding their consequences rather than their causes. This makes it possible to find areas that need improvement. Stochastic, timed, coloured Petri nets were used for the analysis. There are three types of air traffic incidents, distinguished according to events that lead to a transformation of an incident into an accident: causal and temporal. The hybrid case, in which both types are important, has been discussed in detail. The method is useful in evaluating the current level of safety in air traffic. Applicability of this method has been shown on the example of the runway incursion problem. - Highlights: • Current accident investigation procedure is not sufficient. • New method aimed to study incident’s conversion into accident was proposed. • The Petri net model of air traffic accident was developed. • Method allows calculating accident probability. • The hybrid case in which both causal and temporal events are important is discussed

  1. How does corruption influence perceptions of the risk of nuclear accidents?: cross-country analysis after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.

    OpenAIRE

    YAMAMURA, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    Japan’s 2011 natural disasters were accompanied by a devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima. This paper used cross-country data obtained immediately after the Japanese disaster to explore how, and the extent to which, corruption affects the perception of citizens regarding the risk of nuclear accidents. Endogeneity bias was controlled for using instrumental variables. The cross-country analysis showed that citizens in less corrupt countries tend to perceive there to be a lower possibility ...

  2. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  3. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

  4. Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

    2016-04-01

    Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

  5. Harmonic analysis of occupational-accident time-series as a part of the quantified risk evaluation in worksites: Application on electric power industry and construction sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of an integrated risk analysis scheme, which will combine a well-considered selection of widespread techniques, would enable the companies to achieve efficient results on risk assessment. In this study, we develop a methodological framework (as a part of the quantified risk evaluation), by incorporating a new technique, that is implemented by the harmonic-analysis of time-series of occupational-accidents (called as HATS). Our objective is therefore, twofold: (i) the development of a new risk assessment framework (HATS technique) and the subsequent application of HATS on the worksites of electric power industry and construction sector, and (ii) the enrichment of the harmonic-analysis theoretical background, as far as the significance-level of spectral peaks is concerned, with fully-completed practical tables, that they have been produced by using the scientific literature. In fact, we apply HATS on occupational-accident time-series, which were (a) observed in the worksites of the Greek Public electric Power Corporation (PPC) and the Greek construction-companies (GCCs), and (b) recorded in great statistical-databases of PPC, and IKA (the Greek Social Insurance Institute/Ministry of Health), respectively. The results of HATS were tested statistically by using Shimshoni's significance-test. Moreover, the results of the comparative time/frequency-domain analysis of the accident time-series in PPC (for 1993–2009) and GCCs (for 1999–2007), prove that they are characterized by the existence of a periodic factor which (a) constitutes a permanent feature for the dynamic behavior of PPC's and GCCs' OHSS (occupational health and safety system), and (b) could be taken into account by risk managers in risk assessment, i.e., immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source which is originated from the quasi-periodic appearance of the most important hazard sources

  6. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  7. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH

  8. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  9. Dementia and Traffic Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic...... Central Research Register, and/or (2) at least one dementia diagnosis-related drug prescription registration in the Danish National Prescription Registry. Police-, hospital-, and emergency room-reported road traffic-related accidents occurred within the study follow-up are defined as the study outcome...... selection bias due to nonparticipation and loss to follow-up. Furthermore, this ensures that the study results are reliable and generalizable. However, underreporting of traffic-related accidents may occur, which will limit estimation of absolute risks....

  10. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Fundamental and applied aspects of radiobiology: Biological effects of low doses and radioactive contamination of environment (Radioecological and medical biological consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of research works executed in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russia, on various aspects of the Chernobyl problematic are given: radiation medicine and risks, radiobiological effects and their forecasting, radioecology and agricultural radiology, decontamination and radioactive wastes management, socio economic and psychological problems caused by the Chernobyl NPP accident

  11. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  12. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. PMID:25247553

  13. Halka Açık Olmayan Şirketlerde Sistematik Risk Ölçütü Beta Katsayısının Tahmin Edilmesi(Forecasting Systematic Risk Measure Beta Coefficient For Private Companies)

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa KIRLI

    2006-01-01

    Systematic risk being insensitive to portfolio diversification affects all financial markets and all financial assets operated in these markets.Systematic risk measure beta coefficient shows the sensitivity of the securities’ returns to variations in the market return.Beta coefficient is forecasted by using regression model.For publicly traded firms, we know the historical market datas,thus there is no difficulty for estimating beta coefficients of these firms.On the other hand,private comp...

  14. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  15. Accident management information needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  16. 基于极值理论的煤矿事故风险分析%Risk Analysis of Coal Mine Accidents Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘浪; 费明虎

    2012-01-01

    According to the statistics of monthly dead personnel data from coal mine accident in our recent ten years, we can draw a conclusion that, given different confidence level of mining accident, there is the maximum loss value of different risks, namely the big- gest potential accident death toll in each month based on the extreme value theory, which provides a theoretical guidance for the management of safety production in coal mine field.%运用极值理论,根据我国近十余年煤矿事故中每月死亡人员的统计数据,分别得出了在不同置信水平下,我国煤矿事故中的最大风险损失值,即未来事故中每月最大的潜在死亡人数,从而为我国开展煤矿安全生产管理工作提供理论指导。

  17. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendices VII, VIII, IX, and X. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the release of radioactivity in reactor accidents; physical processes in reactor meltdown accidents; safety design rationale for nuclear power plants; and design adequacy.

  18. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix XI. Analysis of comments on the draft WASH-1400 report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Information is presented concerning comments on reactor safety by governmental agencies and civilian organizations; reactor safety study methodology; consequence model; probability of accident sequences; and various accident conditions

  19. [Psychogenesis of accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannattasio, E; Nencini, R; Nicolosi, N

    1988-01-01

    After having carried out a historical review of industrial psychology with specific attention to the evolution of the concept of causality in accidents, the Authors formulate their work hypothesis from that research which take into highest consideration the executives' attitudes in the genesis of the accidents. As dogmatism appears to be one of the most negative of executives' attitudes, the Authors administered Rockeach's Scale to 130 intermediate executives from 6 industries in Latium and observed the frequency index for accidents and the morbidity index (absenteeism) of the 2149 workhand. The Authors assumed that to high degree of dogmatism on the executives' side should correspond o a higher level of accidents and absenteeism among the staff. The data processing revealed that, due to the type of machinery employed, three of the industries examined should be considered as High Risk Industrie (HRI), while the remaining three could be considered as Low Risk Industries (LRI): in fact, due to the different working conditions, a significant lower number of accidents occurred in last the three. A statistically significant correlation between the executives' dogmatism and the number of accidents among their workhand in the HRI has been noticed, while this has not been observed in the LRI. This confirms, as had already been pointed out by Gemelli in 1944, that some "objective conditions" are requested so that the accident may actually take place. On the other hand the morbidity index has not shown any difference related to the different kind of industries (HRI, LRI): in both cases statistically significant correlations were obtained between the executives' dogmatism and the staff's absenteeism. absenteeism.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:3154344

  20. Forecasting trade

    OpenAIRE

    Keck, Alexander; Raubold, Alexander

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison to other models, our approach offers several methodological advantages, inter alia, a focus on import growth as the core ...

  1. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  2. Research and application on risk assessment method of major accidents in coal mine%煤矿重大事故风险评价方法的研究与应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹庆贵; 王以功

    2012-01-01

    本文研究提出了煤矿重大事故——瓦斯煤尘爆炸事故、矿井火灾事故和矿井水灾事故——风险评价方法,采用指数法进行煤矿重大事故风险评价,设计了“煤矿水灾事故危险性评价表”和“瓦斯煤尘爆炸与火灾事故危险性评价表”,提出了煤矿重大事故风险评价的方法步骤,研制了B/S模式的配套应用软件系统,在煤矿企业局域网上开展重大事故风险评价,以及风险预警、安全对策优选等工作.研究成果在协庄煤矿应用,取得了良好的社会效益.%This paper put forward the risk assessment method of major accidents in coal mine,such as gas and coal dust explosion accidents,fire accidents and flood accidents,conducted risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine by using the method of index evaluation,designed "the risk assessment table of flood accidents in coal mine" and "the risk assessment table of gas and coal dust explosion accidents and fire accidents in coal mine", presented the methods and steps of the risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine,and developed the matching software system based on B/S model in order to conduct the work such as risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine, early warning of risk and optimization of safety countermeasures on the LAN of coal mining enterprises. The research results have been applied in Xiezhuang Coal Mine successfully,and have achieved good social benefits.

  3. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  4. ASSESSMENT OF RELIABILITY AND RISK DEGREE FOR ACCIDENT INITIATION AT SLIME STORAGES OF 4th MINING ADMINISTRATION, JSC “BELARUSKALI”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Bohaslauchyk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of reliability for dams of slime storage embankment is given on the basis of reliability theory and characteristics of reliability and their analysis are presented in the paper. The paper specifies qualitative indices for earth dams which are subdivided in two groups: applicability factors and structural reliability factors. A short analysis of all possible causes for accident initiation at earth dams has been made and the analysis has permitted to pinpoint eleven main objects for diagnosis for slime storage dams. In order to assess risk degree of accident initiation at JSC “Belaruskali” slime storages all possible causes of emergency cases and their probability of occurrence have been analyzed in the paper. The paper acknowledges the fact that dam malfunction is possible, as a rule, due to violation of operational rules and regulations. Main parameters of slime storage state which are to be controlled regularly in the process of its operation have been noted in the paper. Observation results over slime storages, calculations of dam slope stability for normal operation (a principal calculation case and operating irregularities in water seals (a special calculation case. As a stability margin factor is close to 1.0 for a special calculation case, an extreme position of depression curve has been determined for all design sections. It has been recommended to carry out a constant control over its position, and in the case when it reaches its peak value it is necessary to undertake appropriate measures in order to reduce its value. Final expert estimations on probability of accident initiation at the investigated slime storage dams of the 4th Mining Administration, JSC “Belaruskali” have been prepared on the basis of the analysis comprising all the required factors. A conclusion has been made about low risk degree of their destruction.

  5. Risk Analysis of Security Accident Management in Chemical Enterprises%化工企业的安全事故管理隐患的探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    康钦利

    2014-01-01

    本文从化工企业目前存在的安全管理隐患入手,阐述了其企业自身可能引发安全责任事故发生的人为隐患、物的隐患与管理上的隐患等,并给出了化工企业潜在安全管理隐患的定性与定量判识方法;并针对化工企业的行业特殊性,提出了排查、治理安全管理环节所存在的各种隐患的解决措施和相应的安全对策。%Some risks which may lead security responsibility accident including anthropogenic risks , physical risks and management risks , etc.were described , and some qualitative and quantitative diagnostic methods about potential security risk management were listed , according to the existing security management in chemical enterprises.Many solutions and appropriate measures were proposed for a variety of risks existed in the investigation , control work , etc.and for the chemical industry enterprises particularity.

  6. Halka Açık Olmayan Şirketlerde Sistematik Risk Ölçütü Beta Katsayısının Tahmin Edilmesi(Forecasting Systematic Risk Measure Beta Coefficient For Private Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa KIRLI

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic risk being insensitive to portfolio diversification affects all financial markets and all financial assets operated in these markets.Systematic risk measure beta coefficient shows the sensitivity of the securities’ returns to variations in the market return.Beta coefficient is forecasted by using regression model.For publicly traded firms, we know the historical market datas,thus there is no difficulty for estimating beta coefficients of these firms.On the other hand,private companies do not have a market price history.Consequently there are difficulties for estimating beta coefficients of private companies.In this study,to forecast beta coefficients for private firms,three models or approaches are suggested and with details analysed.These models or approaches are accounting betas,fundamental betas and comparable publicly traded firms betas.

  7. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  8. RADIATION RISKS ASSESSMENT DUE TO CONSUMPTION OF THE FAR EAST FOOD FISH AFTER THE ACCIDENT ON “FUKUSHIMA-1” NPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishсhenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a review of the data on radioactivity releases to thePacific Oceanlevels after the Fukushima NPP accident. It is shown that the potential risk of of the seafood contamination with the long-living radionuclides 134Cs and 137Cs, which continue to be released to the Pacific Ocean up to the present time. Contribution of 90Sr to the total radioactive contamination does not exceed 3%. Review of the literature data on the modeling of radioactivity spot diffusion showed that due to the flows in the Pacific Ocean the radioactivity transfer toKamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and the ingress into theOkhotskSeawas expected in 2014. It is expected a slight increase of the cesium concentration in water and sea biota in the area of Russia fishing zone FAO 61, but not higher than the concentrations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea after the Chernobyl accident. Data on measurements of the pollution of fish caught in the Pacific Ocean,JapanandOkhotskSeasin 2011–2014 years during the sea expeditions organized by the Russian Geographical Society, yet showed that the total content of cesium isotopes in any fish sample have not eceeded the value of 0.7 Bq/kg. The prognose risk assessment carried out for the conservative scenario of water contamination in fishing zones ofRussiaand seafood consumption characteristic for the region showed that this risk is minimal according to the WHO scale and does not exceed the risk from fish caughed in Black Sea and Baltic Sea, contaminated after theChernobylaccident, consumption. 

  9. Effects Of Country Risk Forecasts Based On Foreign Trade Performance And Currency Choices In Asset - Liability Management On Banks’ Liquidity Performance: An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Muzır

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available he foremost purpose of this paper that presents some parametric and non-parametric model proposals towards measuring banks’ risk of technical insolvency (failure as based on their liquidity performance is to discern how specific choices regarding asset- liability structure of banks and country risk predictions concerning overall foreign trade performance affect liquidity position of those banks. Moreover, possible impacts of lending efficiency and capital adequacy on liquidity performance are argued. For this purpose, some parametric and non-parametric risk estimation models have been developed using the consolidated financial and non-financial data that were reported on a quarterly basis by 26 Turkish and foreign deposit banks within the period between March 2003 and March 2009 to predict changes in the balances of both net cash flows from banking activities and overall net cash flows. According to the findings of the models developed by undertaking Binary Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS, it is concluded that foreign trade performance based country risk forecasts are positively correlated with technical failure risk exposure while currency compositions of assets and liabilities are significantly effective on risk level. In addition, we also observe that foreign banks are relatively less exposed to technical failure risk and infer that increasing lending efficiency and better capital adequacy could lead to pretty liquidity performance, as expected

  10. Nuclear Accident, Public Attitude and Risk Communication%核事故、公众态度与风险沟通

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田愉; 胡志强

    2012-01-01

    日本福岛核事故发生后,世界各地公众反对核电的呼声增高,这对未来各国制定核电政策将会产生重大影响。综合近年来有关欧美国家公众核电态度状况的调查结果,总结了核事故与公众态度之间的关系的三个特征:核事故的发生是影响公众核电风险认知的重要因素;公众对核电的态度会随着时间的推移有所改变;良好的风险沟通是积极影响公众对核电态度的重要举措。%After the Fukushima accident in Japan, the world's public oppositions to nuclear power are increasing, which affects the world's fu-ture nuclear policy. In recent years, the surveys about public attitudes to nuclear power in Europe and the United States demonstrate the three characters that nuclear accidents related to public attitude, which are: the nuclear accident is the major factor to influence public attitudes to nu- clear power; the attitude of public will change with the passage of tirne; good risk communication is an important positive policy that influences public attitudes to nuclear power.

  11. Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

  12. Quantification of the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish boiling water reactors. A scoping study performed for the APRI project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T.; Dinh, T.N.; Bui, V.A.; Sehgal, B.R. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Systems Technology

    1995-07-01

    Results of a scoping study to quantify the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish BWRs are reported. The study considers that a pool of water is established in the containment prior to vessel failure, as prescribed by the accident management scheme for the newer Swedish BWRs. The integrated methodology developed and employed combines probabilistic and deterministic treatment of the various melt-structure-water interaction processes occurring in sequence. The potential steam explosion, and the melt attack on the containment basemat, are treated with enveloping analyses. Uncertain parameters in the models and the initial conditions are treated with Monte Carlo simulations. Independent models are developed for melt coolability and possible attack on the concrete basemat. It is found that, with current models, the melt discharge scenarios, in which a large amount of accumulated melt may be released from the vessel, could subject the containment to large steam explosion loads. However, the uncertainties are so large that no definite conclusion can be drawn. The assessment of ex-vessel core debris coolability is disturbed by similar phenomenological uncertainties. Presently, coolability of the core debris can not be demonstrated. 133 refs.

  13. Light water reactor severe accident seminar. Seminar presentation manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The topics covered in this manual on LWR severe accidents were: Evolution of Source Term Definition and Analysis, Current Position on Severe Accident Phenomena, Current Position on Fission Product Behavior, Overview of Software Models Used in Severe Accident Analysis, Overview of Plant Specific Source Terms and Their Impact on Risk, Current Applications of Severe Accident Analysis, and Future plans

  14. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  15. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  16. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  17. Dementia and Traffic Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic......-related accidents for people aged 65 years or older with a diagnosis of dementia in Denmark. METHODS: We will conduct a nationwide population-based cohort study consisting of Danish people aged 65 or older living in Denmark as of January 1, 2008. The cohort is followed for 7 years (2008-2014). Individual's personal...... data are available in Danish registers and can be linked using a unique personal identification number. A person is identified with dementia if the person meets at least one of the following criteria: (1) a diagnosis of the disease in the Danish National Patient Register or in the Danish Psychiatric...

  18. Optimized electricity expansions with external costs internalized and risk of severe accidents as a new criterion in the decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin del Campo M, C.; Estrada S, G. J., E-mail: cmcm@fi-b.unam.mx [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, 62550 Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    The external cost of severe accidents was incorporated as a new element for the assessment of energy technologies in the expansion plans of the Mexican electric generating system. Optimizations of the electric expansions were made by internalizing the external cost into the objective function of the WASP-IV model as a variable cost, and these expansions were compared with the expansion plans that did not internalize them. Average external costs reported by the Extern E Project were used for each type of technology and were added to the variable component of operation and maintenance cost in the study cases in which the externalises were internalized. Special attention was paid to study the convenience of including nuclear energy in the generating mix. The comparative assessment of six expansion plans was made by means of the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis (PVMRA) decision analysis tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider internal costs, economical impact associated with incremental fuel prices, diversity, external costs, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and external costs of severe accidents. A set of data for the calculation of the last criterion was obtained from a Report of the European Commission. We found that with the external costs included in the optimization process of WASP-IV, better electric expansion plans, with lower total (internal + external) generating costs, were found. On the other hand, the plans which included the participation of nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not. (Author)

  19. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that fo...... that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  20. Radiation risk perception by radiation professionals. Survey results just before the radiological accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals belonging to the radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they consider as a 'safe' dose of radiation for themselves, their spouse, parents, children, brothers and friends. Although the 'safe' dose varied widely from less than 1 mSv/y to higher than 100 mSv/y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv/y that was around the middle point between the exposure dose limits for annual average (20 mSv/y) and for any single year (50 mSv/y). Similar results were obtained from another surveys for the members of Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv/y) and for the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv/y). Among the family members and friends, the minimum average 'safe' dose was 8.5 mSv/y for children, to whom 50% of responders claimed the 'safe' dose less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the responder also affected the 'safe' dose. These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely and that the legal exposure dose limit derived from the regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety even in radiation professionals. The different level of risk perception for different target groups in radiation professionals appears similar to those in non-professional whole population. The gap between these characteristics of real radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might take a part in a state of confusion after the radiological accident. (author)

  1. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  2. Quantitative risk analysis for LNG station accidents%液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王文静; 孙标; 郭开华

    2011-01-01

    液化天然气(LNG)具有低温、易挥发、易燃、易爆的特性,其场站安全问题凸显.研究结合某LNG汽车加注站加注枪或管道LNG溢出的可能性事故,对事故发生概率及后果进行定量分析,其中事故后果的确定采用DEGADIS和LNGFire3模型.文章结合相关文献提供的伤害准则数据,得出人员受伤等级和死亡率,进而确定事故造成的个人风险值.与英国、荷兰等国家和机构制定的个人风险标准进行比较,所得的个人风险大大低于标准极限值,同时表明将5kW/m2作为安全距离临界热辐射强度的合理性.%Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has special hazard properties, such as cryogenic, volatile, flammable and explosive, so that the safety concern of a LNG station becomes one of the most important issues. The probable accident scenario of a LNG spill due to breakage of a filling gun or pipe during the filling process was considered and the probability and consequence of the hazard had been analyzed quantitatively. The consequences of the accident were predicted with DEGADIS and LNGFire3 models, respectively. The injury and casualty of the accident were determined with those criteria given by published literatures, and the value of the individual risk was obtained accordingly. In comparison with the standards of various countries and organizations such as Britain and Netherlands,it is found that the calculated value of the individual risk is much lower than the safety limit, and it is shown that using the radiation flux of 5 kW/m2 as the threshold in determination of the exclusive distance is reasonable.

  3. Tchernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First, R.M.B.K type reactors are described. Then, safety problems are dealt with reactor control, behavior during transients, normal loss of power and behavior of the reactor in case of leak. A possible scenario of the accident of Tchernobyl is proposed: events before the explosion, possible initiators, possible scenario and events subsequent to the core meltdown (corium-concrete interaction, interaction with the groundwater table). An estimation of the source term is proposed first from the installation characteristics and the supposed scenario of the accident, and from the measurements in Europe; radiological consequences are also estimated. Radioactivity measurements (Europe, Scandinavia, Western Europe, France) are given in tables (meteorological maps and fallouts in Europe). Finally, a description of the site is given

  4. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  5. 基于DEA的地铁站拥挤踩踏风险分析%Risk Analysis of Crowded Stampede Accident in Subway Stations Based on DEA Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张立茂; 刘梦洁; 吴贤国; 仲景冰

    2014-01-01

    由于运营时间短、客流量大、管理体系不健全等原因,国内地铁运营过程中存在诸多安全隐患,因拥挤造成踩踏事故的安全风险尤为突出。本文采用数据包络分析( DEA),构建地铁站风险控制有效性分析与评价的DEA模型,对地铁站拥挤踩踏风险进行定量分析。结合武汉地铁线上10个地铁车站的实际数据,从技术效率、规模效率和综合效率三个方面分析了拥挤踩踏风险控制效率;在此基础上,通过确定各决策单元松弛变量调整值,明确为达到风险控制的有效性应采取的改进策略,并利用松弛变量调整值与目标值间的差异辨识主要影响因素。采用DEA方法对地铁站拥挤踩踏事故风险分析结果与现状基本相符,可为判断地铁车站拥挤踩踏风险分析及制定改进策略提供决策依据。%Many potential safety hazards exist in metro operation due to short operating time, big traffic, and incomplete management system and so on. The security risks caused by the crowded stampede accident are particularly acute. The data envelopment analysis ( DEA ) is used to quantitatively analysis the crowded stampede risk. According to the data of ten subway stations in Wuhan metro system, efficiency analysis in terms of technical efficiency, scale reward and comprehensive efficiency is concluded. Based on this, by determining each decision-making unit’ s slack variable modifier, the improvement strategies are subsequently made, and the main factors are identified. Results indicate that the crowded stampede accident risk assessment is consistent with actual situation. Thus, DEA method can be used in determining the crowded stampede risk status in the station, as well as making improvement strategies.

  6. Nesting and reproduction of Pachycondyla striata (Formicidae: Ponerinae in urban areas: an ant that offers risk of accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Marco Cantone

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available It was conducted a research, in urban areas, on the nesting habits and reproductive period of Pachycondyla striata, a species of ant that stings painfully. The study was motivated by the frequent reports of accidents in the city of São Paulo. The reports are more common during the reproductive seasons of the species, when the winged females sting the population, since they enter the houses of the people attracted to light. Although anaphylaxis for P. striata has not been reported yet, other close species may cause anaphylaxis, which makes important to understand their biology in order to take management and control measures. Fourteen green areas in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, were monitored in the search for the species and their nests that were found in 64.3% of the areas. The nests are located around the trunk base of the trees, between the roots that protrude from the ground, under the rocks and through the cracks and crevices on the sidewalks. The spatial distribution of the nests is random. The reproductive period of P. striata was monitored from April 2012 to November 2013, through passive collection and laboratory colony. The nuptial flights occur during the cooler and drier months of the year, between July and September.

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS WITH OIL ON RAILWAY TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Zelenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The principles of estimation of losses to the environment components caused by the emergency spills of petroleum products and the methodical approaches to estimation of ecological risk of functioning of railways are offered.

  8. The dominance of accidents caused by banalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten

    Most prevention analysis is focused on high risks, such as explosion, fire, lack of containment for chemicals, crashes in transportation systems, lack of oxygen, or chemical poisoning. In the industrial world, these kinds of risk still lead to incidents with huge consequences, albeit very seldom...... on accidents could reveal the kind of accidents we are talking about, where they happen, to whom, how, and what can be done about them. This would require a special registration system of the events leading up to the accident. The main results for the four most frequent types of accident will be described...

  9. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  10. Towards Sustaining Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Forecasting Watershed Risks to Current and Future Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, K. A.; Newburn, D.; Opperman, J. J.; Brooks, C.; Merenlender, A.

    2005-05-01

    Sustaining aquatic resources requires managing existing threats and anticipating future impacts. Resource managers and planners often have limited understanding of the relative effects of human activities on stream conditions and how these effects will change over time. Here we assess and forecast the relative impacts of land use on sediment concentrations in Mediterranean-climate watersheds in California. We focus on the Russian River basin, which supports threatened salmonid populations vulnerable to high levels of fine sediment. We ask the following questions: (1) What are the relative impacts of three different land uses (urban, exurban and agriculture) on the patterns of fine sediment in streams? (2) What is the relative contribution of past and current changes in land use activities on these patterns? and (3) What are the effects of future development on these sediment levels? First, we characterized land use at the parcel scale to calibrate the relative impacts of exurban and urban land use on stream substrate quality, characterized by the concentration of fine sediment surrounding spawning gravels (`embeddedness') in 105 stream reaches. Second, we built multiple ordinal logistic regression models on a subset of watersheds (n=64) and then evaluated substrate quality predictions against observed data from another set of watersheds (n=41). Finally, we coupled these models with spatially explicit land use change models to project future stream conditions and associated uncertainties under different development scenarios for the year 2010. We found that the percent of urban housing and agriculture were significant predictors of in-stream embeddedness. Model results from parcel-level land use data indicated that changes in development were better predictors of fine sediment than total development in a single time period. In addition, our results indicate that exurban development is an important threat to stream systems; increases in the percent of total exurban

  11. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  12. Assessing the Risk of Falling Accidents and the Tactic of Nursing Care in Orthopedic Inpatient%骨科住院患者意外跌倒风险因素评估及护理对策

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈红霞

    2011-01-01

    目的:探讨骨科住院病人意外跌倒的风险因素,分析并制定有效的护理对策,以防止住院病人意外跌倒的发生.方法:采用统计学分析方法,调查2007年7月至2008年12月骨科住院病人发生意外跌倒例数和相关风险因素构成比.2009年1月至2010年7月对评估有意外跌倒风险的骨科病人实施安全护理,预防意外跌倒发生.结果:实施护理对策后目标人群防跌倒意识加强,意外跌倒病人发生率显著下降,P<0.05.结论:对骨科病人意外风险因素进行评估,并对目标人群实施安全护理对策,可有效预防骨科住院病人意外跌倒的发生.%Objective: To analyze the risk of falling accidents in orthopedic inpatient and to formulate effective tactic of nursing care ,then we can help prevent falling accidents. Method: Method of statistic analysis was used. The cases with falling accidents in orthopedic inpatient and the constituent ratio of risk factor were under investigation between Jul. 2007 and Dec. 2008. We had put forward and enforced nursing according to the cases which were at risk in danger of falling accidents ;Prevented falling accidents between Jan. 2009 and Jul. 2010. Result: From the date tactic of nursing care came into force, the awareness of target population was strengthened , rate of falling accidents was decreasing sharply , P<0.05. Conclusion:We can help prevent falling accidents by means of assessing the risk of falling accidents in orthopedic inpatient and enforcing nursing according to the target population.

  13. 新的WBO算子及其在城市道路网交通事故预测中的应用研究%New Weakening Buffer Operator and Its Application in Forecasting Traffic Accidents of Road Network of Urban Agglomeration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王宏; 王冬冬; 崔杰

    2014-01-01

    以有效提高系统特征数据序列的光滑性为目的,在已有缓冲算子研究的基础上,根据新息优先原理,构建了一个新的WBO(Weakening Buffer Operator),克服了现有算子对新信息利用不充分的缺陷,并通过城市道路网交通事故预测案例与已有的系列WBO进行了弱化效果的比较。研究结果表明,受扰动因素冲击后的系统特征序列经新WBO作用后,建模精度得到了显著提高。%The aim of this paper is to advance the smoothing of original data sequence. According to the theory of prior using of new information, based on the present theories of buffer operators and some already existed weakening buffer operators, a new weakening buffer operator is established. Meanwhile, it is compared with the existed weakening buffer operators in effectiveness through traffic accident prediction of urban road network.The contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in pretreatment for vibration data sequences is resolved effectively. The research shows that the new weakening buffer operator increases the forecast precision of grey forecast model remarkably.

  14. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry. PMID:22721539

  15. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  16. Thyroid exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian children due to the Chernobyl accident and resulting thyroid cancer risk. Final report of BfS project StSch 4240

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main objectives of the BfS Project StSch4240 Thyroid Exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian Children due to the Chernobyl Accident and Resulting Thyroid Cancer Risk were: to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian settlements, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I activity in the human thyroid have been performed in May/June 1986, to explore, whether this dosimetric database can be extended to neighboring settlements, to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian oblasts (regions) and larger cities, to document the thyroid cancer incidence for the period 1986 - 2001 in Ukraine and Belarus and describe morphological characteristics of the cancer cases, to assess the contribution of the baseline incidence to the total thyroid cancer incidence in the two countries and identify regional and temporal dependencies, to perform analyses of excess risks in settlements with more than 10 measurements of the 131I activity in the human thyroid. The project has been conducted in the period 6 December 1999 to 31 March 2004. (orig.)

  17. Thyroid exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian children due to the Chernobyl accident and resulting thyroid cancer risk. Final report of BfS project StSch 4240

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R.; Ulanovski, A.; Schotola, C.; Proehl, G. [GSF-Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany); Kenigsberg, J.; Buglova, E.; Kruk, J. [Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Minsk (Belarus); Likhtarev, I.; Kovgan, L.; Vavilov, S.; Chepurniy, M. [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Inst., Kyiv (Ukraine); Tronko, M.; Bogdanova, T. [Institute of Endocrinolgoy and Metabolism of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv (Ukraine); Shinkarev, S.; Gavrilin, Y. [All-Russian Public Organization of Invalids ' Chernobylets' , Scientific Center ' FENIX' , Moscow (Russian Federation); Demidchik, Y. [Thyroid Cancer Center, Minsk (Belarus)

    2005-07-01

    Main objectives of the BfS Project StSch4240 Thyroid Exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian Children due to the Chernobyl Accident and Resulting Thyroid Cancer Risk were: to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian settlements, in which more than 10 measurements of the {sup 131}I activity in the human thyroid have been performed in May/June 1986, to explore, whether this dosimetric database can be extended to neighboring settlements, to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian oblasts (regions) and larger cities, to document the thyroid cancer incidence for the period 1986 - 2001 in Ukraine and Belarus and describe morphological characteristics of the cancer cases, to assess the contribution of the baseline incidence to the total thyroid cancer incidence in the two countries and identify regional and temporal dependencies, to perform analyses of excess risks in settlements with more than 10 measurements of the {sup 131}I activity in the human thyroid. The project has been conducted in the period 6 December 1999 to 31 March 2004. (orig.)

  18. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  19. Radiation and Health Effects and Inferring Radiation Risks from the Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Annex X of Technical Volume 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anxieties about the risk of harm from radiation are often out of proportion to the actual likelihood of harm. Therefore, in order to deal sensibly with situations involving exposure to radiation, it is important to clarify what is known and what is not known about radiation and health effects. This annex provides a general qualitative overview of what is known about radiation-induced health effects, followed by a more detailed exploration of the quantitative inferences that may be drawn from past analyses of the relationships between radiation exposure and risk

  20. 海南香蕉产业风险及预警对策研究%Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘燕群; 曾小红; 方佳

    2011-01-01

    在概述海南香蕉产业现状的基础上,分析了海南香蕉产业面临的风险,具体包括市场风险、自然灾害、信息风险和生产风险4个方面.为了促进海南香蕉产业持续协调、高速发展,提出了相应的对策:一是加强香蕉产业预警工作的组织领导;二是构建香蕉产业预警机制,具体包括搭建海南香蕉产业预警分级系统、构建香蕉产业信息检测与收集系统、建立信息分析与决策系统以及建设预警信息发布与共享系统4个方面;三是加强香蕉产业应急处置能力建设;四是进一步完善香蕉产业风险防范保障体系;五是加快香蕉标准化生产,提高市场竞争力;六是加快发展中介组织提高产业组织化程度;七是大力开展香蕉创新技术培训,提高香蕉产业科技水平.%Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry, including four aspects. They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry; constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry; establishing information analysis and decision - making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems. The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry. The fourth is to further perfect the risk - defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan. The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence

  1. SONARC: A Sea Ice Monitoring and Forecasting System to Support Safe Operations and Navigation in Arctic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Babiker, M.; Sandven, S.; Muckenhuber, S.; Korosov, A.; Bobylev, L.; Vesman, A.; Mushta, A.; Demchev, D.; Volkov, V.; Smirnov, K.; Hamre, T.

    2015-12-01

    Sea ice monitoring and forecasting systems are important tools for minimizing accident risk and environmental impacts of Arctic maritime operations. Satellite data such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), combined with atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting models, navigation models and automatic identification system (AIS) transponder data from ships are essential components of such systems. Here we present first results from the SONARC project (project term: 2015-2017), an international multidisciplinary effort to develop novel and complementary ice monitoring and forecasting systems for vessels and offshore platforms in the Arctic. Automated classification methods (Zakhvatkina et al., 2012) are applied to Sentinel-1 dual-polarization SAR images from the Barents and Kara Sea region to identify ice types (e.g. multi-year ice, level first-year ice, deformed first-year ice, new/young ice, open water) and ridges. Short-term (1-3 days) ice drift forecasts are computed from SAR images using feature tracking and pattern tracking methods (Berg & Eriksson, 2014). Ice classification and drift forecast products are combined with ship positions based on AIS data from a selected period of 3-4 weeks to determine optimal vessel speed and routing in ice. Results illustrate the potential of high-resolution SAR data for near-real-time monitoring and forecasting of Arctic ice conditions. Over the next 3 years, SONARC findings will contribute new knowledge about sea ice in the Arctic while promoting safe and cost-effective shipping, domain awareness, resource management, and environmental protection.

  2. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L

    2000-12-15

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  3. Assessing Traffic Accident Occurrence of Road Segments through an Optimized Decision Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for estimating the safety status of transportation facilities have received great attention in the last two decades. These models also perform an important role in transportation safety planning as well as diagnoses of locations with high accident risks. However, the current methods largely rely on regression analyses and therefore they could ignore the multicollinearity characteristics of factors, which may provide additional information for enhancing the performance of forecasting models. This study seeks to develop more precise models for forecasting safety status as well as addressing the issue of multicollinearity of dataset. The proposed mathematical approach is indeed a discriminant analysis with respect to the goal of minimizing Bayes risks given multivariate distributions of factors. Based on this model, numerical analyses also perform with the application of a simulated dataset and an empirically observed dataset of traffic accidents in road segments. These examples essentially illustrate the process of Bayes risk minimization on predicating the safety status of road segments toward the objective of smallest misclassification rate. The paper finally concludes with a discussion of this methodology and several important avenues for future studies are also provided.

  4. International aspects of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The accident at Chernobyl revealed that there were shortcomings and gaps in the existing international mechanisms and brought home to governments the need for stronger measures to provide better protection against the risks of severe accidents. The main thrust of international co-operation with regard to nuclear safety issues is aimed at achieving a uniformly high level of safety in nuclear power plants through continuous exchanges of research findings and feedback from reactor operating experience. The second type of problem posed in the event of an accident resulting in radioactive contamination of several countries relates to the obligation to notify details of the circumstances and nature of the accident speedily so that the countries affected can take appropriate protective measures and, if necessary, organize mutual assistance. Giving the public accurate information is also an important aspect of managing an emergency situation arising from a severe accident. Finally, the confusion resulting from the unwarranted variety of protective measures implemented after the Chernobyl accident has highlighted the need for international harmonization of the principles and scientific criteria applicable to the protection of the public in the event of an accident and for a more consistent approach to emergency plans. The international conventions on third party liability in the nuclear energy sector (Paris/Brussels Conventions and the Vienna Convention) provide for compensation for damage caused by nuclear accidents in accordance with the rules and jurisdiction that they lay down. These provisions impose obligations on the operator responsible for an accident, and the State where the nuclear facility is located, towards the victims of damage caused in another country

  5. Risk-informed regulation and safety management of nuclear power plants--on the prevention of severe accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himanen, Risto; Julin, Ari; Jänkälä, Kalle; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Virolainen, Reino

    2012-11-01

    There are four operating nuclear power plant (NPP) units in Finland. The Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) power company has two 840 MWe BWR units supplied by Asea-Atom at the Olkiluoto site. The Fortum corporation (formerly IVO) has two 500 MWe VVER 440/213 units at the Loviisa site. In addition, a 1600 MWe European Pressurized Water Reactor supplied by AREVA NP (formerly the Framatome ANP--Siemens AG Consortium) is under construction at the Olkiluoto site. Recently, the Finnish Parliament ratified the government Decision in Principle that the utilities' applications to build two new NPP units are in line with the total good of the society. The Finnish utilities, Fenno power company, and TVO company are in progress of qualifying the type of the new nuclear builds. In Finland, risk-informed applications are formally integrated in the regulatory process of NPPs that are already in the early design phase and these are to run through the construction and operation phases all through the entire plant service time. A plant-specific full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is required for each NPP. PRAs shall cover internal events, area events (fires, floods), and external events such as harsh weather conditions and seismic events in all operating modes. Special attention is devoted to the use of various risk-informed PRA applications in the licensing of Olkiluoto 3 NPP.

  6. Hazards Forecasting and Weights Determination during Operation and Maintenance of Petrol Fuel Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Ahmed

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Petrol Fuel Stations (PFS is the most commonly available hazardous facility within urban and rural areas. Hazardous materials such as petrol, diesel, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG and kerosene oil normally sell and stores at PFS. PFS can be considered as small refinery within the city. A 3.5 year study conducted and 3216 non-compliances were recorded from PFS located in various cities of Pakistan. The operating company was ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 certified. The recorded non-compliances during study period were categorized into 8 potential factors. These were Housekeeping (HK, Transportation Hazard (TH, Slips, Trips and Falls (STF, Carelessness (C, Fire Risks (FR, Electrical Fault (EF, Miscellaneous Cases (MC and Medical Treatment Cases (MTC. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used and categorized 8 factors were prioritized. The same data was further classified based upon to cause fatality, accident, incident and near miss cases. A total numbers of 14, 426, 975 and 1804, fatality, accident, incident and near miss cases were recorded. With application of Exponential Smoothing method the fatalities, accident, incident and near miss cases for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013 were forecasted. The results of AHP and forecasted hazards will be presented and discussed in this study. It is hope that the both approaches will assist health and safety professionals for future hazards predictions and hazards weights determinations. Health and safety practitioners can take remedial and preventative measures by using past data with utilization of proposed techniques.

  7. Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting of Consumer Credit Default Risk - An Indicator Approach Based on Individual Payment Histories

    OpenAIRE

    Schwarz, Alexandra

    2011-01-01

    The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to the decision of identifying a certain credit as defaulted. Based on a unique data set of individual payment histories this paper proposes a definition of default which is based on the time due amounts a...

  8. Development of a Convection Risk Index to forecast severe weather, and application to predict maximum wind speeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Wanik, D. W.; Scerbo, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2015-12-01

    We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for seeing the development of thunderstorms. The parameters were combined using a weighted formula and which when calculated, yields the Convection Risk Index 1 to 4 scale, with 4 being the highest risk for seeing strong convection. In addition, we also evaluated the performance of the parameters in the CRM and CRI for predicting the maximum wind speed in areas where we calculated the CRI using nonparametric tree-based model, Bayesian additive trees (BART). The use of the CRI and the predicted wind speeds from BART can be used to better inform emergency preparedness efforts in government and industry.We have developed a tool, the Convection Risk Index (CRI), to represent the severity, timing and location of convection for select geographic areas. The CRI is calculated from the Convection Risk Matrix (CRM), a tabulation of numerous meteorological parameters which are categorized into four broad factors that contribute to convection (surface and lower level moisture, atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and lift); each of these factors have historically been utilized by meteorologists to predict the likelihood for development of thunderstorms. The CRM ascribes a specific threshold value to each parameter in such a way that it creates a unique tool used to calculate the risk for

  9. SMAD3 rs17228212 gene polymorphism is associated with reduced risk to cerebrovascular accidents and subclinical atherosclerosis in anti-CCP negative Spanish rheumatoid arthritis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes García-Bermúdez

    Full Text Available Rheumatoid arthritis (RA is a complex polygenic inflammatory disease associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and increased risk of cardiovascular (CV disease. Previous genome-wide association studies have described SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism as an important signal associated with CV events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate for the first time the relationship between this gene polymorphism and the susceptibility to CV manifestations and its potential association with the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by the evaluation of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT in patients with RA.One thousand eight hundred and ninety-seven patients fulfilling classification criteria for RA were genotyped for SMAD3 rs17228212 gene polymorphism through TaqMan genotyping assay. Also, subclinical atherosclerosis determined by the assessment of cIMT was analyzed in a subgroup of these patients by carotid ultrasonography.No statistically significant differences were observed when allele frequencies of RA patients with or without CV events were compared. Nevertheless, when RA patients were stratified according to anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP status, we found that in RA patients who were negative for anti-CCP antibodies, the presence of C allele of SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism conferred a protective effect against the risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA after adjustment for demographic and classic CV risk factors (HR [95%CI]=0.36 [0.14-0.94], p=0.038 in a Cox regression model. Additionally, correlation between the presence of C allele of SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism and lower values of cIMT was found after adjustment for demographic and classic CV risk factors (p-value=0.0094 in the anti-CCP negative RA patients.Our results revealed that SMAD3 rs17228212 gene variant is associated with lower risk of CVA and less severe subclinical atherosclerosis in RA patients negative for anti-CCP antibodies. These findings may have

  10. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. PMID:26687540

  11. Updating of adventitious fuel pin failure frequency in sodium-cooled fast reactors and probabilistic risk assessment on consequent severe accident in Monju

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Experimental studies, deterministic approaches and probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) on local fault (LF) propagation in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) have been performed in many countries because LFs have been historically considered as one of the possible causes of severe accidents. Adventitious-fuel-pin-failures (AFPFs) have been considered to be the most dominant initiators of LFs in these PRAs because of their high frequency of occurrence during reactor operation and possibility of fuel-element-failure-propagation (FEFP). A PRA on FEFP from AFPF (FEFPA) in the Japanese prototype SFR (Monju) was performed in this study based on the state-of-the-art knowledge, reflecting the most recent operation procedures under off-normal conditions. Frequency of occurrence of AFPF in SFRs which was the initiating event of the event tree in this PRA was updated using a variety of methods based on the above-mentioned latest review on experiences of this phenomenon. As a result, the frequency of occurrence of, and the core damage frequency (CDF) from, AFPF in Monju was significantly reduced to a negligible magnitude compared with those in the existing PRAs. It was, therefore concluded that the CDF of FEFPA in Monju could be comprised in that of anticipated transient without scram or protected loss of heat sink events from both the viewpoint of occurrence probability and consequences. (author)

  12. Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Michinaka

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don, hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc. Endl., and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb. Carr.. For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12- and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases.

  13. Occupational blood exposure accidents in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, P.T.L. van; Schneeberger, P.M.; Heimeriks, K.; Boland, G.J.; Karagiannis, I.; Geraedts, J.; Ruijs, W.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To make proper evaluation of prevention policies possible, data on the incidence and associated medical costs of occupational blood exposure accidents in the Netherlands are needed. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of blood exposure accidents and risk estimates for occupational groups. Cost

  14. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of

  15. [Snake bite accidents in children in Costa Rica: epidemiology and determination of risk factors in the development of abscess and necrosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saborío, P; González, M; Cambronero, M

    1998-02-01

    A retrospective epidemiological analysis is presented of 80 snakebites in children admitted to the Pediatrics Service of Tony Facio Hospital in Limón, Costa Rica, between 1985 and 1995. An overall incidence rate of 20 snakebite accidents per 100,000 inhabitants per year was calculated for the region in that period. However, a higher incidence was described in some counties (36 and 30 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Talamanca and Siquirres, respectively). Most of the cases occurred in February and November, between 16:00 and 19:00 hr. The mean age of the affected children was 8.67 +/- 2.66 years. No significant difference was found between genders. Thirty-three children affected (41.2%) were members of the local indigenous groups and 31 (38.8%) were residents of Talamanca County. The species of snake responsible were identified in 58.4% of cases, with Bothrops asper being the most important. The lower extremities were the most important primary site affected (86.3%). The most common clinical complications described in the study group were abscess formation (11.25%), necrosis (10%), renal failure (3.75%), compartmental syndrome (2.5%) and anaphylactic shock (1.25%). The overall mortality was 2.5%. Statistical analysis of the risk factors relating to the two most common complications showed that the condition of coming from Talamanca County (P = 0.02), damage in the proximal extremities (P = 0.02), a prothrombin time serum fibrinogen levels serum fibrinogen levels < 100 g/dl were associated with development of necrosis. All of the patients with necrosis and abscesses also experienced two or more of the risk factors that correlated with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 67% for the development of abscess, and 87% sensitivity and 88% specificity for necrotic complications. According to these data, snakebite complications are a relevant health problem in Costa Rica. PMID:9620583

  16. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  17. Structural model of risk factors for safety accidents in coal mine based on CA-SEM%基于 CA -SEM 的煤矿安全事故风险因素结构模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪刘凯; 孟祥瑞; 何叶荣; 王向前; 李慧宗

    2015-01-01

    围绕煤矿安全风险管理的内涵,通过因子分析和层次聚类分析,识别煤矿安全事故风险主要包含人因风险、管理风险、信息风险、环境风险和设备风险5个风险因素层的22项风险因子。以人因风险层的6个风险因素为内源潜变量,其他4个风险层的16个风险因素为外源潜变量,构建煤矿安全事故风险因素的CA-SEM模型。运用SPASS17.0和AMOS7.0剖析各风险因素层以及各风险因子对煤矿安全事故风险的综合影响及其作用机理,从而为实现煤矿本质化安全提供决策依据。%Centering on the connotation of risk management for coal mine safety, through factor analysis and hierar-chical clustering analysis, the risk of safety accidents in coal mine was identified, which included 22 risk factors in 5 risk factor levels such as human factor risk, management risk, information risk, environment risk and equipment risk.Taking the 6 risk factors in human factor risk level as endogenous latent variable and the 16 risk factors in oth-er 4 levels as exogenous latent variables, a CA-SEM model of risk factors for safety accidents in coal mine was es-tablished.The comprehensive influence and effect mechanism of each risk factor level and each risk factor on risk of safety accidents in coal mine were analyzed by using SPASS17 .0 and AMOS7 .0 , so as to provide decision basis for realizing the essence safety of coal mine.

  18. Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

    2014-09-01

    Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

  19. Ecological Forecasting of West Nile Virus Outbreaks in a High-Risk Area of the North-Central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Kightlinger, L.; Vincent, G.; Hildreth, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread and important mosquito-borne pathogen in North America. Since its emergence in the western hemisphere in 1999, human WNV disease has continued to exhibit recurrent outbreaks. Perplexingly, the incidence of this tropical disease has been highest in the cold-temperate climates of the Northern Great Plains (NGP). The spatial and temporal distributions of the vector mosquitoes and bird hosts, and consequently the risk of disease in humans, are strongly influenced by temperature, precipitation, vegetation, soils, and land use. We have utilized satellite remote sensing to map these environmental factors through time and develop models of disease risk. Outbreak years in South Dakota were preceded by warm winters, and WNV cases were most likely to occur during the hottest weeks of summer. Hot spots of persistent WNV transmission within the state were associated with rural land cover as well as patterns of physiography and climate. These models are currently being integrated into the South Dakota Mosquito Early Warning system (SDMIS), an automated WNV outbreak detection system that integrates remotely-sensed environmental indicators with vector abundance and infection data from a statewide mosquito surveillance network. The major goal of this effort is to leverage global environmental monitoring datasets to provide up-to-date, locally relevant information that can improve the effectiveness of mosquito control and disease prevention activities. This system was implemented for the first time during the summer of 2015. We will review the outcomes of this implementation, including the underlying influences of temperature on WNV risk, a preliminary statewide WNV risk map, and dynamic risk predictions made during the 2015 WNV season. Lessons learned as well as plans for future years will be discussed.

  20. An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...... well-known risk measures under both schemes. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis and find that the relative performance of the two schemes depends on the chosen model parameter estimates....

  1. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  2. Forecasting Volatilities of Corn Futures at Distant Horizons

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Feng; Guan, Zhengfei

    2010-01-01

    Accurately forecasting volatility at distant horizons is critical for managing long-term risk in agriculture. Given the poor performance of GARCH-type models at long-term volatility forecast, we develop a risk-adjusted implied volatility, which adjust the risk-neutral implied volatility by correctly accounting for the volatility risk premium. The paper evaluates the performance of the new implied volatility in the corn futures market relative to two alternative forecasts- a three-year moving ...

  3. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident...

  4. Radiation accident/disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Described are the course of medical measures following Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) Accident after the quake and tsunami (Mar. 11, 2011) and the future task for radiation accident/disaster. By the first hydrogen explosion in FNPP (Mar. 12), evacuation of residents within 20 km zone was instructed, and the primary base for measures of nuclear disaster (Off-site Center) 5 km afar from FNPP had to work as a front base because of damage of communicating ways, of saving of injured persons and of elevation of dose. On Mar. 13, the medical arrangement council consisting from stuff of Fukushima Medical University (FMU), National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Nuclear Safety Research Association and Prefectural officers was setup in residents' hall of Fukushima City, and worked for correspondence to persons injured or exposed, where communication about radiation and between related organizations was still poor. The Off-site Center's head section moved to Prefectural Office on Mar. 15 as headquarters. Early in the period, all residents evacuated from the 20 km zone, and in-hospital patients and nursed elderly were transported with vehicles, >50 persons of whom reportedly died mainly by their base diseases. The nation system of medicare for emergent exposure had consisted from the network of the primary to third facilities; there were 5 facilities in the Prefecture, 3 of which were localized at 4-9 km distance from FNPP and closed early after the Accident; and the secondary facility of FMU became responsible to all exposed persons. There was no death of workers of FNPP. Medical stuff also measured the ambient dose at various places near FNPP, having had risk of exposure. At the Accident, the important system of command, control and communication was found fragile and measures hereafter should be planned on assumption of the worst scenario of complete damage of the infrastructure and communication. It is desirable for Disaster Medical Assistance Team which

  5. 基于贝叶斯定理与洪水预报误差抬高水库汛限水位的风险分析%Risk analysis of raising reservoir flood limited water level based on Bayes theorem and flood forecast error

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周如瑞; 卢迪; 王本德; 周惠成

    2016-01-01

    The development of hydrometeorological forecast technology offers important opportunities for reservoir dynamic control of flood limited water level. Economic benefits can be improved by raising the flood limited water level, but there is certain flood control risk. The purpose of this study was to propose a risk analysis method of upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level in order to provide the support for the development of dynamic control of flood limited water level. The proposed risk analysis method was based on Bayes theorem and flood forecast error characteristics. Qinghe reservoir, located in the northeast of China, was taken as an example. 21 flood events of actual and forecast runoff from the year 1964 to 2013 were used. For large reservoirs that has the ability for multi-year regulation, decision makers of flood control operation concern a lot about runoff forecast accuracy because the design flood is controlled by the flood volume. First, maximum entropy method was selected to simulate the runoff prediction error probability density function of 21 flood events, also forecast error range was calculated. According to the actual need of runoff forecast error in Qinghe reservoir, the range was divided into 6 zones, and distribution probabilities of runoff forecast errors in each zone, namely the prior probability distributions of flood forecasting errors were obtained by integrating the density function. Then, the probabilities of the highest water levels being higher than corresponding designed levels within different flood forecast error bounds were studied, and the risks of different flood forecast errors were inferred by Bayes theorem when the highest water level in flood regulation met with the design flood frequency. Based on the risk analysis method, risks of each design water level considering flood forecast information were compared with risks of conventional mode. The proposed risk analysis method of upper bound of dynamic

  6. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Approach for Wave Energy Converters Taking Weather Forecast Uncertainties into Account

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance costs are significant contributors to the cost of energy for wave energy converters. Maintenance can be performed after failure (corrective) or before a breakdown (preventive) occurs. Furthermore, helicopter and boat can be used to transport equipment and personnel...... to the device for operation and maintenance actions. This article focusses on a risk-based inspection and maintenance planning approach involving minimization of the overall repair costs including costs due to lost electricity production. The study includes real weather data and damage accumulation as well...

  7. 跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立%Construction of real-time hazards evaluation for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李二平; 尤宏; 刘宝玲; 冯玉杰

    2012-01-01

    针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准.采用AHP(层次分析法)—综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法.%In recent year, trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents have become a prominent environmental and social problem. Therefore, it is in dire need of researching on early-warning index system and risk grading for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents. The sudden water pollution accidents bring pressure on the environment, change the situation of environment and cause human beings to respond to the accident. Hence, based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, we established a forecasting index system for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents caused by soluble hazardous leakage. Futhernore, in this paper, considering the pollution accidents characters and operability principles, the forecasting index system included twelve (actors from four aspects: water environmental risk sources, health and ecological risks, trans-boundary risks and emergency decision-making commands. Then,weight value of each index of the index system was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) through consulting experts. According to "China environmental emergency contingency plans the trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels: particularly significant tans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅰ) , significant trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅱ), general trans-boundary environmental pollution event (Ⅲ), slightly trans-boundary environmental pollution event(Ⅳ) .At the same time, grading standards of every early warning index have also been obtained by referring to the existing international standards, codes and expert advices , as well as through comparing the hazard Levels of historical environmental events, AHP evaluation and synthetically

  8. The grey interrelation analysis and trend prediction on the safety accident in Kailun Coal Mine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Z.; Ding, Y.; Zhao, C. [Kailun (Group) Limited Liability Corporation, Tangshan (China)

    2003-02-01

    The man-machine-environment systems in Kailuan Coal Mines is taken as the object of study to make the grey interrelation analysis for coal mine accidents and related factors by integrating the Grey System Theory with actual coal mine production. It also forecasts the accident development trend in coalmine in accordance with the accident statistics of coalmine by means of the grey forecast method. The injury rate per 1000 persons in Jinggezhuang Coal Mine in 2001 and 2002 was forecast and the results were 8.1043 and 7.7033 respectively. The process and the result in the analysis and forecast indicate that the method is simple and easy to use, and the result is reliable. The method and result of the study provide the theoretical reference for the quantitative study in coalmine accidents, as well as the basis for decision-making on safety management of coal enterprise. 3 refs., 4 tabs.

  9. Study on the accident oil spill pollution in Wanshan Archipelago sea area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper uses diffusion model and transfer model of instantaneous oil spilling with static point source for forecasting and studying the accident oil spilling pollution in Wanshan Archipelago sea area. The paper also presents prevention and cure measures

  10. DATA ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND THEIR CAUSES IN GOMEL FOR 2013 AND 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Azemsha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Measures undertaken for improvement of road traffic safety presuppose clampdown on violation of road traffic regulations but no attention is paid to the fact that there is no possibility to ensure road traffic safety due to inconformity of roads to the modern safety requirements. Therefore reduction in accident rate is connected with some changes in approaches to designing, construction and maintenance of roads. Nowadays when the number of automobiles is extremely large and their number is increasing with every passing year driver’s professionalism becomes the most significant factor. In these circumstances the professionalism is demonstrated not so much while driving in bad road conditions as it was previously but the professionalism is more revealed in the case when it is necessary to drive in conditions of large workloads and high manoeuvring rate when a special important role is given to the capability to forecast a situation, in other words the capability to read the road. Moral climate on the road is no less important as well and it practically fully depends on a driver.The paper contains an analysis of the Gomel traffic police data on quantitative distribution of road traffic accidents and their victims according to the time of day and month, lighting conditions, weather conditions, age and sex factors, types of violations. Situations of traffic behavior, motivations of drivers and road users, drivers training have been shown in terms of impact on the road traffic accident risk. The paper considers a human factor which rather often causes an accident. An evaluation has been given to such factor as road speed of transport facilities which exerts a significant influence on an accident risk and its severity.

  11. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. tjsj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpae Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ksun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kjan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kfyv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kgfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kege Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kjbr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kali Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbcb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbgr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcnm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kmco Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kfkl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbos Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kspi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kiag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpub Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmsn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ksln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ksbp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kopf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krdm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kfmy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmgw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. krwf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. pata Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kiah Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kbna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kofk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ksgr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kgwo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbtv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...