WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident risk forecasting

  1. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  2. Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫

    2003-01-01

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.

  3. Analysing truck position data to study roundabout accident risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kamla, Jwan Jameel Shekh Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    In order to reduce accident risk, highway authorities prioritise maintenance budgets partly based upon previous accident history. However, as accident rates have continued to fall in most contexts, this approach has become problematic as accident ‘black spots’ have been treated and the number of accidents at any individual site has fallen. Another way of identifying sites of higher accident risk might be to identify near-miss accidents (where an accident nearly happened, but was avoided), whi...

  4. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  5. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargo, G.J. [ed.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  6. Severe accident risks from external events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet.Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators.Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents.It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.

  7. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  8. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J (eds.) (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)); Agrenius, Lennart (ed.) (Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

  9. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  10. Risk factors for road traffic accidents in Gulu municipality, Uganda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors for road traffic accidents in Gulu municipality, Uganda. ... Traffic Accidents (RTA), establish the safety measures in place to protect road users to ... drivers of different categories of vehicles, motorcyclists and bicyclists locally known ...

  11. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  12. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  13. Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard; Grabec, Igor [Laboratory of Synergetics, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering; Thaler, Marko; Poredos, Alojz [Laboratory for Refrigeration, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-08-15

    Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems' cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company. (author)

  14. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions...

  15. Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrenko Elena A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project.

  16. A Novel Multilevel-SVD Method to Improve Multistep Ahead Forecasting in Traffic Accidents Domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barba, Lida; Rodríguez, Nibaldo

    2017-01-01

    Here is proposed a novel method for decomposing a nonstationary time series in components of low and high frequency. The method is based on Multilevel Singular Value Decomposition (MSVD) of a Hankel matrix. The decomposition is used to improve the forecasting accuracy of Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) linear and nonlinear models. Three time series coming from traffic accidents domain are used. They represent the number of persons with injuries in traffic accidents of Santiago, Chile. The data were continuously collected by the Chilean Police and were weekly sampled from 2000:1 to 2014:12. The performance of MSVD is compared with the decomposition in components of low and high frequency of a commonly accepted method based on Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT). SWT in conjunction with the Autoregressive model (SWT + MIMO-AR) and SWT in conjunction with an Autoregressive Neural Network (SWT + MIMO-ANN) were evaluated. The empirical results have shown that the best accuracy was achieved by the forecasting model based on the proposed decomposition method MSVD, in comparison with the forecasting models based on SWT.

  17. APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Final Report; APRI - Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hammar, L.; Soederman, E. [ES-konsult, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    The APRI-project started in 1992 with participation of the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish utilities. The Finnish utility TVO joined the project in 1993. The aim of the project has been to work with phenomenological questions in severe accidents, concentrating on the risk-dominating issues. The work is reported in separate sub-project reports, the present is the final report of the methodological studies as well as a final report for the total project. The research has led to clarifications of the risk complex, and ameliorated the basis for advanced probabilistic safety analyses, specially for the emission risks (PSA level 2) which are being studied at the Swedish plants. A new method has been tried for analysis of complicated accident courses, giving a possibility for systematic evaluation of the impact of different important phenomena (e.g. melt-through, high pressure melt-through with direct heating of the containment atmosphere, steam explosions). In this method, the phenomena are looked upon as top events of a `phenomena-tree`, illustrating how various conditions must be met before the top-event can happen. This method has been useful, in particular for applying `expert estimates`. 47 refs.

  18. Hybrid Models Based on Singular Values and Autoregressive Methods for Multistep Ahead Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Barba

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The traffic accidents occurrence urges the intervention of researchers and society; the human losses and material damage could be abated with scientific studies focused on supporting prevention plans. In this paper prediction strategies based on singular values and autoregressive models are evaluated for multistep ahead traffic accidents forecasting. Three time series of injured people in traffic accidents collected in Santiago de Chile from 2000:1 to 2014:12 were used, which were previously classified by causes related to the behavior of drivers, passengers, or pedestrians and causes not related to the behavior as road deficiencies, mechanical failures, and undetermined causes. A simplified form of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA, combined with the autoregressive linear (AR method, and a conventional Artificial Neural Network (ANN are proposed. Additionally, equivalent models that combine Hankel Singular Value Decomposition (HSVD, AR, and ANN are evaluated. The comparative analysis shows that the hybrid models SSA-AR and SSA-ANN reach the highest accuracy with an average MAPE of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, from 1- to 14-step ahead prediction. However, it was discovered that HSVD-AR shows a higher accuracy in the farthest horizons, from 12- to 14-step ahead prediction, which reaches an average MAPE of 2.2%.

  19. Smoothing Strategies Combined with ARIMA and Neural Networks to Improve the Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Barba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD. In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0 : 26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1 : 12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15 : 51%.

  20. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  1. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  2. Medical risk factors amongst drivers in single-car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gislason, T; Tómasson, K; Reynisdóttir, H; Björnsson, J K; Kristbjarnarson, H

    1997-03-01

    To estimate medical risk factors amongst drivers in single-car accidents with special reference to sleepiness and alcohol abuse. An epidemiological survey by means of multiple-choice questionnaires that were mailed to drivers and a random control group. Iceland. All drivers in single-car accidents (n = 471) during 1989-91 and a control group from the general population (n = 1000). Medical health profile and answers to questions concerning sleep disorders and alcohol abuse. Compared to the controls the drivers were younger and there were three times more males. The drivers abused alcohol more often. Chronic disorders such as epilepsy, diabetes mellitus, and cardiac disorders were not over-represented. Altogether, 15.4% claimed that sleepiness had caused their traffic accident, logistic regression analyses revealed that these 'sleepy' drivers more often had alcohol abuse and a history of 'almost falling a sleep whilst driving'. Compared to controls, drivers in single-car accidents are more likely to be young, male, have a history of sleepiness whilst driving, and also have a history suggestive of alcoholism. Chronic disorders like epilepsy and diabetes mellitus were not over-represented amongst the single-car accidents drivers. These results raise the question of how drivers with a high probability of causing an accident (sleepiness and alcoholism) can be identified in time and proper measures taken to prevent 'accidents waiting to happen'.

  3. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A

  4. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident.

  5. Insights into the Societal Risk of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denning, Richard; Mubayi, Vinod

    2017-01-01

    The elements of societal risk from a nuclear power plant accident are clearly illustrated by the Fukushima accident: land contamination, long-term relocation of large numbers of people, loss of productive farm area, loss of industrial production, and significant loss of electric capacity. NUREG-1150 and other studies have provided compelling evidence that the individual health risk of nuclear power plant accidents is effectively negligible relative to other comparable risks, even for people living in close proximity to a plant. The objective of this study is to compare the societal risk of nuclear power plant accidents to that of other events to which the public is exposed. We have characterized the monetized societal risk in the United States from major societally disruptive events, such as hurricanes, in the form of a complementary cumulative distribution function. These risks are compared with nuclear power plant risks, based on NUREG-1150 analyses and new MACCS code calculations to account for differences in source terms determined in the more recent SOARCA study. A candidate quantitative societal objective is discussed for potential adoption by the NRC. The results are also interpreted with regard to the acceptability of nuclear power as a major source of future energy supply.

  6. Probability Forecast Method for Freeway Traffic Accidents%高速公路交通事故概率预测方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王少群; 张晓明

    2014-01-01

    准确的高速公路交通事故概率预测可提高高速公路行车安全。通过分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素,建立高速公路交通事故影响因素体系,构造贝叶斯网络,提出基于贝叶斯网络的高速公路交通事故概率预测方法。此方法利用数据库先验概率信息及贝叶斯预测模型,得出高速公路交通事故概率值,以此判断事故危险等级。%Precise probability forecast for freeway traffic accidents is an important means to improve traffic safety. By analyzing the influence factors of highway traffic accidents, this paper establishes a Bayesian network, and develops the probability forecast method based on Bayesian network. This method determines the level of risk by analyzing the distribution of the accident probability values, after deriving them by using database prior probability information and Bayesian model.

  7. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  8. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  9. [Accident risk perception in high-voltage electrical maintenance workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, M; Zanaletti, W; Giorgi, I; Argentero, P; Candura, S M

    2006-01-01

    Promoting safety at work represents a fundamental task for achieving improvement in the quality of working life and preventing accidental injuries at work. Nevertheless, over the last few decades injuries at work have continued to constitute a significant problem. The aim of this study was to examine accident risk perception in a sample of 45 subjects employed in the electricity sector and to relate their risk perception to personality characteristics, cognitive functioning, and personal and professional history. The instruments used were: "Cognitive Behavioral Assessment 2.0", the "Workplace safety questionnaire" (an Italian questionnaire on safety at work), and a battery of neuropsychological tests. Findings show that electricity (current variability) was perceived as the most serious risk factor, while the most frequent perceived risk factors for accidents were accidental falls, cuts and bruises. The subjects of our sample showed a good awareness of risk perception, and good mood response and augmented psychophysiological activation during accidental injuries.

  10. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  11. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); T.D. Markwat (Thijs); A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or

  12. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values......-at-Risk are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting out-of-sample forecasts based on the simulations suggests that the GARCH method with implied volatility as explanatory variable captures the risk structure well....

  13. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values......-at-Risk are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting out-of-sample forecasts based on the simulations suggests that the GARCH method with implied volatility as explanatory variable captures the risk structure well....

  14. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, D.; Lelieveld, J.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90 % of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50 % beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  15. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Asmalia Che

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

  16. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  18. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yan-Qun; Zeng, Xiao-Hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  19. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High-Frequency Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyu Huang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available in the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500 returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled at different intraday interval, or directly, through combining high frequency information into one model. We consider subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging methods for the indirect case, and factor models with principal component approach, for both direct and indirect cases. We show that in forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it, using high-frequency information is beneficial, often substantially and particularly so, in forecasting downside risk. Our empirical results show that the averaging methods (subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging, which serve as different ways of forming the ensemble average from using high-frequency intraday information, provide an excellent forecasting performance compared to using just low-frequency daily information.

  20. Students’ driving behaviour as a risk factor of road accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zografakis-Sfakianakis M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionRoad accidents are considered to be a public health problem since they have been massively adverse consequences in demography. Since there is a human loss, especially of young people, the problem should be investigated extensively. The driving behaviour (either alone or in combination with other factors is the most important cause of road accidents for 80-90%.Purpose Investigating students’ driving behaviour (culture of a technological educational institute and how positively or negatively they take actions, preventing themselves of accidents.Material and Method400 questionnaires were supplemented. The questionnaire was consisted of 18 closed type questions, created by the research group using bibliographical sources. The data were analyzed using the x2 test, in all cases, statistical significant was considered the two-tailed P<0,05.Results A 21,7% of students has driven the previous 7 days having consumed alcohol while 57% has been passengers. Men’s alcohol consumption has showed increased infringement (93,3% in relation to women (6,7%. (x2=53,983; p <0,001. In other crucial provisions of road traffic regulation, violation was found which exceeds 50% (speeding, wrong lane driving, etc.. The highest percentage, without a safety belt or a helmet -never or and rarely - are male drivers (x2=12,074; P=0,017.It was found that a particularly large percentage of students (61% were involved in a traffic accident. From those, who have been involved in a traffic accident, as drivers (97 students, as guilty pleaded 26,8%, while non-guilty 73,2%. Statistically males were a high majority (x2=23,425; p <0,001. The traffic accident occurred during their student years in percentage of 47,5%. 18,8% of students have been transferred to hospital as a casualty of a traffic accident. ConclusionIt is confirmed once again that the concepts of 'dangerous driving behaviour" and "young" are compatible. Male students have increased risk behaviour, mainly

  1. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  2. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  3. Forecasting risk of bankruptcy for machine-building plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telipenko, E.; Zakharova, A.; Sopova, Svetlana

    2015-09-01

    The paper presents an overview of well-known bankruptcy risk forecasting models, elaborated as by Russian so by foreign authors, on the basis of the data about financial and business activities of the biggest machine-building Russian plants. The authors substantiate and confirm appropriateness of a fuzzy set model to the problem of bankruptcy risk forecasting. This model is worked out on the basis of 10 most important factors, which have the greatest influence on sales proceeds as the main financial source for a production plant.

  4. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  5. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mehran Amiri; Abdollah Ardeshir; Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were d...

  6. Risk Assessment of Oil Pipeline Accidents in Special Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vtorushina, A. N.; Anishchenko, Y. V.; Nikonova, E. D.

    2017-05-01

    The present study identifies the main accidents’ factors and causes for oil pipeline located in Siberia and operated in special climatic conditions. Various types of pipeline accident scenarios were modeled. It is showed that the most dangerous scenarios are oil spills fire and oil vapor explosion due to the loss of piping integrity (rupture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on marshlands and oil spill on the water surface due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture). The most probable scenario is oil spills fire due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on dry lands and marshlands. To estimate the scenarios «event tree analysis» is used. Also such risk indexes as individual, societal, public and potential risks were determined.

  7. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID:25325460

  8. Forecasting individual breast cancer risk using plasma metabolomics and biocontours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bro, Rasmus; Kamstrup-Nielsen, Maja Hermann; Engelsen, Søren Balling

    2015-01-01

    by chemometric data fusion. It was possible to create a biocontour, which we define as a complex pattern of relevant biological and phenotypic information. While single markers or known risk factors have close to no predictive value, the developed biocontour provides a forecast which, several years before...... in a subject 2–5 years after the sample is taken with sensitivity and specificity well above 80 %. The model was built on data obtained in 1993–1996 and tested on persons sampled a year later in 1997. Metabolic forecasting of cancer by biocontours opens new possibilities for early prediction of individual...

  9. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry,the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry.They are respectively marketing risks,natural risks,information risks and production risks.In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry,countermeasures are proposed in the research.The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry.The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry,including four aspects.They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry;constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry;establishing information analysis and decision-making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems.The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry.The fourth is to further perfect the risk-defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan.The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence.The sixth is to accelerate the development of intermediate agents to improve the organization degrees.And the last one is to put emphasis on the tech-training courses on banana planting and production to improve the technical quality of banana industry.

  10. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  11. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  12. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  13. Assessment of risk, damage and severity of consequences of accident into storage for LPG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzenova, Zlatina

    2016-12-01

    In this work an accident scenario in store for LPG is considered and consequences - forming a toxic cloud of vapor, fire and blast are modeled through models built into the software product ALOHA. The risk assessment of contamination with certain concentration is done, provided that it is an accident. Definitions for model mixture and risk assessment using geometric probability are introduced.

  14. 77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-09

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors... comment on NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power..., ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' DATES: Submit comments...

  15. 77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-06

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors... the Commission), issued a NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports...), Section 19.0 ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' The NRC...

  16. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  17. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  18. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  19. A database system for the management of severe accident risk information, SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, K. I.; Kim, D. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce main features and functions of a PC Windows-based database management system, SARD, which has been developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for automatic management and search of the severe accident risk information. Main functions of the present database system are implemented by three closely related, but distinctive modules: (1) fixing of an initial environment for data storage and retrieval, (2) automatic loading and management of accident information, and (3) automatic search and retrieval of accident information. For this, the present database system manipulates various form of the plant-specific severe accident risk information, such as dominant severe accident sequences identified from the plant-specific Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and accident sequence-specific information obtained from the representative severe accident codes (e.g., base case and sensitivity analysis results, and summary for key plant responses). The present database system makes it possible to implement fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for various accident sequences, and in turn it can be used for the support of the Level 2 PSA of similar plants and for the development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  20. Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Audrino

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We provide empirical evidence of volatility forecasting in relation to asymmetries present in the dynamics of both return and volatility processes. Using recently-developed methodologies to detect jumps from high frequency price data, we estimate the size of positive and negative jumps and propose a methodology to estimate the size of jumps in the quadratic variation. The leverage effect is separated into continuous and discontinuous effects, and past volatility is separated into “good” and “bad”, as well as into continuous and discontinuous risks. Using a long history of the S & P500 price index, we find that the continuous leverage effect lasts about one week, while the discontinuous leverage effect disappears after one day. “Good” and “bad” continuous risks both characterize the volatility persistence, while “bad” jump risk is much more informative than “good” jump risk in forecasting future volatility. The volatility forecasting model proposed is able to capture many empirical stylized facts while still remaining parsimonious in terms of the number of parameters to be estimated.

  1. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  2. Cerebrovascular accidents in sickle cell disease: rates and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohene-Frempong, K; Weiner, S J; Sleeper, L A; Miller, S T; Embury, S; Moohr, J W; Wethers, D L; Pegelow, C H; Gill, F M

    1998-01-01

    Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) is a major complication of sickle cell disease. The incidence and mortality of and risk factors for CVA in sickle cell disease patients in the United States have been reported only in small patient samples. The Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease collected clinical data on 4,082 sickle cell disease patients enrolled from 1978 to 1988. Patients were followed for an average of 5.2 +/- 2.0 years. Age-specific prevalence and incidence rates of CVA in patients with the common genotypes of sickle cell disease were determined, and the effects of hematologic and clinical events on the risk of CVA were analyzed. The highest rates of prevalence of CVA (4.01%) and incidence (0.61 per 100 patient-years) were in sickle cell anemia (SS) patients, but CVA occurred in all common genotypes. The incidence of infarctive CVA was lowest in SS patients 20 to 29 years of age and higher in children and older patients. Conversely, the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke in SS patients was highest among patients aged 20 to 29 years. Across all ages the mortality rate was 26% in the 2 weeks after hemorrhagic stroke. No deaths occurred after infarctive stroke. Risk factors for infarctive stroke included prior transient ischemic attack, low steady-state hemoglobin concentration and rate of and recent episode of acute chest syndrome, and elevated systolic blood pressure. Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with low steady-state hemoglobin and high leukocyte count.

  3. A Method for Forecasting Credit Risk of Global Device Purchasing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    With the development of the Internet and E-commerce, enterprises can achieve global device purchasing with a good cost performance. But the credit risk is the key factor in selecting a device provider. Credit risk involves many qualitative and quantitative factors. We construct a multi-agent credit rating model system based on CSCW, which organically combines the people's aptitude and the capability of machines. Enterprises can use this credit rating system for forecasting and defeating the credit risk of global device purchasing.

  4. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving...... the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road...

  5. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting cycling accident risk in Brussels: a spatial case-control approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbulcke, Grégory; Thomas, Isabelle; Int Panis, Luc

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at predicting cycling accident risk for an entire network and identifying how road infrastructure influences cycling safety in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium). A spatial Bayesian modelling approach is proposed using a binary dependent variable (accident, no accident at location i) constructed from a case-control strategy. Control sites are sampled along the 'bikeable' road network in function of the potential bicycle traffic transiting in each ward. Risk factors are limited to infrastructure, traffic and environmental characteristics. Results suggest that a high risk is statistically associated with the presence of on-road tram tracks, bridges without cycling facility, complex intersections, proximity to shopping centres or garages, and busy van and truck traffic. Cycle facilities built at intersections and parked vehicles located next to separated cycle facilities are also associated with an increased risk, whereas contraflow cycling is associated with a reduced risk. The cycling accident risk is far from being negligible in points where there is actually no reported cycling accident but where they are yet expected to occur. Hence, mapping predicted accident risks provides planners and policy makers with a useful tool for accurately locating places with a high potential risk even before accidents actually happen. This also provides comprehensible information for orienting cyclists to the safest routes in Brussels.

  7. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  8. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed

  9. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed o

  10. Risks of potential accidents of nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Eggink GJ; Blaauboer RO

    1993-01-01

    Over 200 nuclear power plants for commercial electricity production are presently operational in Europe. The 1986 accident with the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl has shown that severe accidents with a nuclear power plant can lead to a large scale contamination of Europe. This report is focussed

  11. Perceived risks and risk attitudes in southern Russia in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research; Rumyantseva, G.M.; Martyvshov, A.N. [The Serbsky Research Institute, Moscow, (Russian Federation)

    1993-10-01

    The present study was conducted within the framework of the Joint Study Project 2 (JSP2), a research project involving the European Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The task involved the investigation of public reactions to radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The here presented field-work was designed as a pilot investigation in a series of studies aimed at contributing to the understanding of social and psychological factors relevant to the design of countermeasures in the case of a future nuclear accident. The report presents questionnaire data collected from people living in Novozybkov and its surroundings in Russia, in the summer of 1992. The chosen areas had an overall surface contamination level of 15-40 Ci/km{sup 2}. The results showed that the respondents recalled the date of the accident surprisingly well. They often indicated that they had heard the first news of the accident via TV, radio or rumors. They often reported the content of that information to have been related to an explosion or a fire at a nuclear plant. They indicated that they at the time had a rather modest reaction to the news. Current worries especially concerned health risks due to the radioactive contamination, although the respondents also emphasized that ordinary life was filled with worries. Middle-aged persons and parents often indicated the highest personal worry. Risk ratings related to radiation and radioactive contamination were high. Ratings of perceived change in risk level since the accident of a variety of hazards showed an overall increase. 27 refs, 23 figs, 23 tabs.

  12. Exchangeability, extreme returns and Value-at-Risk forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Kai; North, Delia; Zewotir, Temesgen

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to extreme value modelling for the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR). In particular, the block maxima and the peaks-over-threshold methods are generalised to exchangeable random sequences. This caters for the dependencies, such as serial autocorrelation, of financial returns observed empirically. In addition, this approach allows for parameter variations within each VaR estimation window. Empirical prior distributions of the extreme value parameters are attained by using resampling procedures. We compare the results of our VaR forecasts to that of the unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach and the conditional GARCH-EVT model for robust conclusions.

  13. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  14. Shift sequences, duration of rest periods, and accident risk of bus drivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pokorny, M.L.I.; Blom, D.H.J.; Leeuwen, P. van; Nooten, W.N. van

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a portion of the results of a comprehensive analysis of the etiology of bus driver accidents. This portion of the analysis concentrates on two questions. First, does the sequences of various shifts influence accident risk on a given day? Various analyses led us to conclude that

  15. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  16. Comparison of Management Oversight and Risk Tree and Tripod-Beta in Excavation Accident Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamadfam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Accident investigation programs are a necessary part in identification of risks and management of the business process. Objectives One of the most important features of such programs is the analysis technique for identifying the root causes of accidents in order to prevent their recurrences. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used to compare management oversight and risk tree (MORT with Tripod-Beta in order to determine the superior technique for analysis of fatal excavation accidents in construction industries. Materials and Methods MORT and Tripod-Beta techniques were used for analyzing two major accidents with three main steps. First, these techniques were applied to find out the causal factors of the accidents. Second, a number of criteria were developed for the comparison of the techniques and third, using AHP, the techniques were prioritized in terms of the criteria for choosing the superior one. Results The Tripod-Beta investigation showed 41 preconditions and 81 latent causes involved in the accidents. Additionally, 27 root causes of accidents were identified by the MORT analysis. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP investigation revealed that MORT had higher priorities only in two criteria than Tripod-Beta. Conclusions Our findings indicate that Tripod-Beta with a total priority of 0.664 is superior to MORT with the total priority of 0.33. It is recommended for future research to compare the available accident analysis techniques based on proper criteria to select the best for accident analysis.

  17. Oil spill monitoring and forecasting on the Prestige-Nassau accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montero, P.; Blanco, J.; Cabanas, J.M.; Maneiro, J.; Pazos, Y.; Morono, A. [Unidade de Observacion Proxima CPAM, Vilaxoan, Pontevedra (Spain); Balseiro, C.F.; Carracedo, P.; Gomez, B.; Penabad, E.; Perez-Munuzuri, V. [MeteoGalicia CMA, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Braunschweig, F.; Fernandes, R.; Leitao, P.C.; Neves, R. [MARETEC IST, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2003-07-01

    The Prestige-Nassau tanker ship spilled about 10,000 tons of oil off the coast of Spain on November 13, 2002 during a severe storm. On November 19, the ship split in half and sank 133 nautical miles from the Galician coast to a depth of 3,500 metres, spilling another 20,000 tons of oil. The Galician government set up an Office of Nearshore Surveillance and recruited people from the Galician Regional Meteorological Service and the Spanish Institute of Oceanography to monitor the slick and forecast its trajectory. The main spill arrived at Galicia on November 30, damaging most of the coast. A variety of models that combined surface wind drift and ocean currents were used to forecast the movement of the spill. These included the Mothy from MeteoFrance, and DERIVA from the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute. Two models were also developed by MeteoGalicia and MAETEC. The path followed by the oil spill was classified in three parts. The first spill of 10,000 tons took place from November 13 until the ship split in two. The second spill of around 20,000 tons of oil occurred when the ship sank on November 19. The last spill includes oil that continued to leak from the sunken tanker at a rate of 125 tons per day. The trajectory predictions were found to be in good agreement with aerial observations. 24 refs., 10 figs.

  18. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  19. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  20. Benzodiazepine-Like Hypnotics and the Associated Risk of Road Traffic Accidents

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the association between the use of benzodiazepine or benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the risk of road traffic accidents. Data from three French national databases were matched: the health-care insurance database, police reports, and the police database of injury-related traffic accidents. A total of 72,685 drivers involved in injury-related road traffic accidents in France, from 2005 to 2008, were included in the study. The risk of being responsible f...

  1. Risk assessment of a pressurized water reactor for Class 3-8 accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, R.E.

    1979-10-01

    An assessment has been made of the impact on societal risk of Class 3-8 accident sequences as defined by Appendix D to 10 CFR50. The present analysis concentrates on a pressurized water reactor and utilizes realistic assumptions when practical. Conclusions are drawn as to the relative importance of the analyzed accidents and their impact on the development of a complete societal risk curve. 65 refs., 61 figs., 37 tabs.

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, A.C.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Shiver, A.W. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA)); Smith, L.N. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs.

  3. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study. RESULTS: Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  4. Accident risk and factors regarding non-motorised road users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agerholm, Niels; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2015-01-01

    Almost half of all traffic fatalities worldwide are non-motorised road users (NMRUs). In Denmark, the number has increased with about 30%. NMRUs consist of about 63% of the injured in the Danish traffic. Much has been done to reduce the number of injured NMRUs with counterparts, while little effort...... is put into the reduction of the vast majority of the accidents, NMRU single accidents, which are about 90% of all injured NMRUs. There are no efficient tools available to reduce this number. A significantly better designed, maintained, and illuminated road network would most likely help. However......, that is expensive and not possible for most road authorities. Despite this, the challenges with NMRUs in single accidents need more attention, if road safety is to be improved. The situation in Denmark is more than likely the case in many other countries as well; although the documentation is scarce....

  5. Forecast Skill and Farmers' Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Paz, J.; Breuer, N.E.; Broad, K.; Ingram, K.T.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2010-01-01

    During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame se

  6. FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI ACCIDENT: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE ACTIONS FROM THE RISK PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOON-EON YANG

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident in 2011 has affected various aspects of the nuclear society worldwide. The accident revealed some problems in the conventional approaches used to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. To prevent such disastrous accidents in the future, we have to learn from them and improve the conventional approaches in a more systematic manner. In this paper, we will cover three issues. The first is to identify the key issues that affected the progress of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident greatly. We examine the accident from a defense-in-depth point of view to identify such issues. The second is to develop a more systematic approach to enhance the safety of nuclear installations. We reexamine nuclear safety from a risk point of view. We use the concepts of residual and unknown risks in classifying the risk space. All possible accident scenarios types are reviewed to clarify the characteristics of the identified issues. An approach is proposed to improve our conventional approaches used to ensure nuclear safety including the design of safety features and the safety assessments from a risk point of view. Finally, we address some issues to be improved in the conventional risk assessment and management framework and/or practices to enhance nuclear safety.

  7. Bayesian analysis of risk associated with workplace accidents in earthmoving operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. García

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the characteristics of earthmoving operations involving a workplace accident. Bayesian networks were used to identify the factors that best predicted potential risk situations. Inference studies were then conducted to analyse the interplay between different risk factors. We demonstrate the potential of Bayesian networks to describe workplace contexts and predict risk situations from a safety and production planning perspective.

  8. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low lighting conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ivan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Besides other non-behavioural factors, the low lighting conditions significantly influence the frequency of the traffic accidents in the urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low lighting conditions on the traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca. The dependence degree between lighting and the number of traffic accidents was analyzed by the Pearson's correlation and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the lighting conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injured persons rate for the 0.5 km2 equally-sized areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results have shown a strong linear dependence between the low lighting conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accidents occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions, at the city entrances-exits, which represent also vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low lighting and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence enabled us to identify the high traffic accident risk areas in the city of Cluj-Napoca.

  9. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan, K.; Haidu, I.; Benedek, J.; Ciobanu, S. M.

    2015-09-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, low-light conditions significantly influence the frequency of traffic accidents in an urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low-light conditions on traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The dependence degree between light and the number of traffic accidents was analysed using the Pearson correlation, and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the light conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injury rate for the 0.5 km2 areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results show a strong linear correlation between the low-light conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accident occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions at the city entrances/exits, which represent vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low light and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence, enabled us to identify the areas of high traffic accident risk in Cluj-Napoca.

  10. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer.

  11. Psychoactive substance use and the risk of motor vehicle accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Movig, K.L.; Mathijssen, M.P.; Nagel, P.H.; van Egmond, T.; de Gier, J.J.; Leufkens, H.G.; Egberts, A.C.

    2004-01-01

    The driving performance is easily impaired as a consequence of the use of alcohol and/or licit and illicit drugs. However, the role of drugs other than alcohol in motor vehicle accidents has not been well established. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between psychoactive d

  12. Benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the associated risk of road traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orriols, L; Philip, P; Moore, N; Castot, A; Gadegbeku, B; Delorme, B; Mallaret, M; Lagarde, E

    2011-04-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the association between the use of benzodiazepine or benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the risk of road traffic accidents. Data from three French national databases were matched: the health-care insurance database, police reports, and the police database of injury-related traffic accidents. A total of 72,685 drivers involved in injury-related road traffic accidents in France, from 2005 to 2008, were included in the study. The risk of being responsible for a traffic accident was higher in users of benzodiazepine hypnotics (odds ratio (OR) = 1.39 (1.08-1.79)) and in the 155 drivers to whom a dosage of more than one pill of zolpidem a day had been dispensed during the 5 months before the collision (OR = 2.46 (1.70-3.56)). No association was found between the use of zopiclone and risk of traffic accidents. Although this study did not find any association between the use of zolpidem as recommended and causation of traffic accidents, the potential risk related to possible abuse of the drug and risky driving behaviors should be further investigated. The results related to benzodiazepine hypnotics are consistent with those of previous studies.

  13. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  14. Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Chen, Guanghan

    2013-10-01

    With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size>7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation-targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors-are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  15. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  16. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwan Hyung Yi

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of < 3 years and newly hired workers with a relatively shorter working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  17. Radiation Doses and Associated Risk From the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo

    2017-03-01

    The magnitude of dose due to the Fukushima Daiichi Accident was estimated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2013 report published in April 2014. Following this, the UNSCEAR white paper, which comprises a digest of new information for the 2013 Fukushima report, was published in October 2015. Another comprehensive report on radiation dose due to the accident is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on the Fukushima Daiichi Accident published in August 2015. Although the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications well summarize doses received by residents, they review only literature published before the end of December 2014 and the end of March 2015, respectively. However, some studies on dose estimation have been published since then. In addition, the UNSCEAR 2013 report states it was likely that some overestimation had been introduced generally by the methodology used by the Committee. For example, effects of decontamination were not considered in the lifetime external dose estimated. Decontamination is in progress for most living areas in Fukushima Prefecture, which could reduce long-term external dose to residents. This article mainly reviews recent English language articles that may add new information to the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications. Generally, recent articles suggest lower doses than those presented by the UNSCEAR 2013 report.

  18. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  19. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  20. Quantifying the Influence of Social Characteristics on Accident and Injuries Risk: A Comparative Study Between Motorcyclists and Car Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Olesen, Morten N.; Hels, Tove

    2011-01-01

    as the control group. The available data for the regression consisted of accident and injury data for motorcyclists and car owners in the period of interest as well the social and demographic parameters: age, gender, income, educational level and family status. The odds ratio calculations showed that the risk....... In this analysis we establish relationships between social and demographic characteristics and the probability of being in an accident and being injured in an accident. Logistic regression was applied to both motorcyclists and car drivers with the purpose of calculating the odds ratio with the car drivers...... of being in an accident or in an injury accident decreased with age, educational level, and income. Furthermore, the risk of being in an accident was 1.72 to 1.96 times higher and the risk of being in an injury accident was 1.38 to 1.44 times higher for men compared to women. For motorcyclists compared...

  1. The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Yen-Chen [Department of Finance, National Taichung Institute of Technology (China); Chuang, I-Yuan; Lai, Jing-Yi [Department of Finance, National Chung Cheng University (China)

    2010-03-15

    This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts. (author)

  2. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

  3. Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

  4. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  5. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  6. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Amiri

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011.The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA, Total Severity Index (TSI, and Risk Factor (RF were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected.Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4% are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%. Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6% and those working at heights (TAR=47.2% experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%, work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%, and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47% are more prone to severe accidents.It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  7. On the influence of space storms on the frequency of infarct-myocardial, brain strokes, and hard car accidents; possible using of CR for their forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, L. I.; Iucci, N.; Ptitsyna, N. G.; Villoresi, G.

    We consider the influence of space storms as strong interplanetary shock waves causing great cosmic ray Forbush-decreases and big geomagnetic storms on the people health at the ground level We used data of more than 7 millions ambulance cases in Moscow and St Petersburg included information on daily numbers of the hard traffic accidents infarctions and brain strokes We found that during space storms the average daily numbers of hard traffic accidents with using ambulances as well as infarctions and brain strokes confirmed by medical personal increase by 17 4 pm 3 1 10 5 pm 1 2 and 7 0 pm 1 7 respectively We show that the forecasting of these dangerous apace phenomena can be done partly by using cosmic ray data on pre-increase and pre-decrease effects as well as on the change of 3-D cosmic ray anisotropy

  8. [Risk factors associated with road accidents among young people in Tuscany (Italy): a cross sectional study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Innocenti, Francesco; Voller, Fabio; Berti, Alice; Silvestri, Caterina

    2013-01-01

    In most countries, national statistics institutes either do not measure or underestimate the impact of behavioral aspects as causes of road accidents. To bridge this gap, the Regional Health Agency of Tuscany (Italy) created the EDIT project, which evaluates driving behaviors and other lifestyle risk factors in a sample of secondary school students. Study results show that driving while under the influence of alcohol or drugs or while being distracted by cigarette smoking or the use of mobile phones are the risk factors most frequently associated with traffic accidents.

  9. Increased risk of traffic accidents in subjects with latent toxoplasmosis: a retrospective case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malý Marek

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The parasite Toxoplasma gondii infects 30–60% of humans worldwide. Latent toxoplasmosis, i.e., the life-long presence of Toxoplasma cysts in neural and muscular tissues, leads to prolongation of reaction times in infected subjects. It is not known, however, whether the changes observed in the laboratory influence the performance of subjects in real-life situations. Methods The seroprevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in subjects involved in traffic accidents (N = 146 and in the general population living in the same area (N = 446 was compared by a Mantel-Haenszel test for age-stratified data. Correlation between relative risk of traffic accidents and level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre was evaluated with the Cochran-Armitage test for trends. Results A higher seroprevalence was found in the traffic accident set than in the general population (Chi2MH = 21.45, p 95= 1.76–4.01 times higher risk of an accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects. The OR significantly increased with level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre (p 95 = 1.14–3.03 for the 99 subjects with low antibody titres (8 and 16, higher (OR = 4.78, C.I.95 = 2.39–9.59 for the 37 subjects with moderate titres (32 and 64, and very high (OR = 16.03, C.I.95 = 1.89–135.66 for the 6 subjects with titres higher than 64. Conclusion The subjects with latent toxoplasmosis have significantly increased risk of traffic accidents than the noninfected subjects. Relative risk of traffic accidents decreases with the duration of infection. These results suggest that 'asymptomatic' acquired toxoplasmosis might in fact represent a serious and highly underestimated public health problem, as well as an economic problem.

  10. Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2016-01-01

    This article demonstrates the incorporation of stochastic grey-box models for urban runoff forecasting into a full-scale, system-wide control setup where setpoints are dynamically optimized considering forecast uncertainty and sensitivity of overflow locations in order to reduce combined sewer...... overflow risk. The stochastic control framework and the performance of the runoff forecasting models are tested in a case study in Copenhagen (76 km2 with 6 sub-catchments and 7 control points) using 2-h radar rainfall forecasts and inlet flows to control points computed from a variety of noisy...... smoothing. Simulations demonstrate notable improvements of the control efficiency when considering forecast information and additionally when considering forecast uncertainty, compared with optimization based on current basin fillings only....

  11. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2015-11-15

    This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing.

  12. An investigation of occupational accidents and safety risks in policing: Views of employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Gözübenli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Policing is one of the riskiest and dangerous professions by its nature. Police officers face a range of risks at work: homicide, assaults, attacks, communicable diseases, car crashes or explosions. The risks vary according to the task being undertaken such as arresting offenders, attending street disturbances or performing traffic duties. These risks, having the characteristics of occupational accident in a way, have institutional losses like compensation, loss of manpower and reputation besides individual results like injury, death, mutilation, and posttraumatic stress disorder, exposure to psychological disorders or decrease in quality of life. Opinions and suggestions of 1066 employees currently working at different ranks and units in Turkish National Police in regards with reducing the risks of occupational accidents and safety risks were studied in this research. Suggestions of the participants were reviewed under total nine headings (themes consisting of training, physical fitness and health, security measures, institutional policies and procedures, managerial policies, working conditions, equipment, uniforms, and patrol cars.

  13. Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants after Fukushima

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Christian Kaiser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many countries are reexamining the risks connected with nuclear power generation after the Fukushima accidents. To provide updated information for the corresponding discussion a simple empirical approach is applied for risk quantification of severe reactor accidents with International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES level ≥5. The analysis is based on worldwide data of commercial nuclear facilities. An empirical hazard of 21 (95% confidence intervals (CI 4; 62 severe accidents among the world’s reactors in 100,000 years of operation has been estimated. This result is compatible with the frequency estimate of a probabilistic safety assessment for a typical pressurised power reactor in Germany. It is used in scenario calculations concerning the development in numbers of reactors in the next twenty years. For the base scenario with constant reactor numbers the time to the next accident among the world's 441 reactors, which were connected to the grid in 2010, is estimated to 11 (95% CI 3.7; 52 years. In two other scenarios a moderate increase or decrease in reactor numbers have negligible influence on the results. The time to the next accident can be extended well above the lifetime of reactors by retiring a sizeable number of less secure ones and by safety improvements for the rest.

  14. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  15. Public risk perception after the nuclear accident Fukushima: a case with university students

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo, E-mail: veronica.boemer@usp.b [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de; Pereira, Tatiana de Sousa, E-mail: araquino@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of research conducted with university students before (03 to 05/2010) and after (06 and 07/2011) the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima, Japan, provoked by the tsunami on March 11, 2011, with regards to risk perception associated with the use of nuclear energy. (author)

  16. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, Finn

    1996-01-01

    the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological...

  17. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  18. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen...

  19. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  20. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management-global radiocontamination and information disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-06-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Fukushima Health Management Survey Project" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management.

  1. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  2. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  3. The dynamic nature of risk perceptions after a fatal transit accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernstedt, Kris; Murray-Tuite, Pamela

    2015-03-01

    In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users' concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  5. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  6. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  7. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  8. Estimating the subjective risks of driving simulator accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Vinayak; Harrison, Glenn W; Rutström, E Elisabet

    2014-01-01

    We examine the subjective risks of driving behavior using a controlled virtual reality experiment. Use of a driving simulator allows us to observe choices over risky alternatives that are presented to the individual in a naturalistic manner, with many of the cues one would find in the field. However, the use of a simulator allows us the type of controls one expects from a laboratory environment. The subject was tasked with making a left-hand turn into incoming traffic, and the experimenter controlled the headways of oncoming traffic. Subjects were rewarded for making a successful turn, and lost income if they crashed. The experimental design provided opportunities for subjects to develop subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn, and it also elicited their attitudes towards risk. A simple structural model explains behavior, and showed evidence of heterogeneity in both the subjective beliefs that subjects formed and their risk attitudes. We find that subjective beliefs change with experience in the task and the driver's skill. A significant difference was observed in the perceived probability to successfully turn among the inexperienced drivers who did and did not crash even though there was no significant difference in drivers' risk attitudes among the two groups. We use experimental economics to design controlled, incentive compatible tasks that provide an opportunity to evaluate the impact on driver safety of subject's subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn as well as their attitudes towards risk. This method could be used to help insurance companies determine risk premia associated with risk attitudes or beliefs of crashing, to better incentivize safe driving.

  9. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  10. Driving behaviors and accident risk under lifetime license revocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh; Tseng, Chien-Ming; Tseng, I-Yen

    2011-07-01

    This study explored the driving behaviors and crash risk of 768 drivers who were under administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR). It was found that most of the ALLR offenders (83.2%) were still driving and only a few (16.8%) of them gave up driving completely. Of the offenders still driving, 67.6% experienced encountering a police roadside check, but were not detained or ticketed by the police. Within this group, 50.6% continued driving while encountering a police check, 18.0% of them made an immediate U-turn and 9.5% of them parked and exited their car. As to crash risk, 15.2% of the ALLR offenders had at least one crash experience after the ALLR had been imposed. The results of the logistic regression models showed that the offenders' crash risk while under the ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (personal income), penalty status (incarceration, civil compensation and the time elapsed since license revocation), annual distance driven, and needs for driving (working, commuting and driving kids). Low-income offenders were more inclined to have a crash while driving under the ALLR. Offenders penalized by being incarcerated or by paying a high civil compensation drove more carefully and were less of a crash risk under the ALLR. The results also showed there were no differences in crash risk under the ALLR between hit-and-run offences and drunk driving offences or for offenders with a professional license or an ordinary license. Generally, ALLR offenders drove somewhat more carefully and were less of a crash risk (4.3 crashes per million km driven) than legal licensed drivers (23.1 crashes per million km driven). Moreover, they seemed to drive more carefully than drivers who were under short-term license suspension/revocation which previous studies have found.

  11. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  12. Sleep apnea-related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. CPAP. The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65-80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). The MVA risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with OSA suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  13. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  14. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

  15. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: christine.hendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Lowry, Gregory V., E-mail: glowry@andrew.cmu.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Unrine, Jason M., E-mail: jason.unrine@uky.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Kentucky, Agricultural Science Center, Lexington, KY 40546 (United States); Wiesner, Mark R., E-mail: wiesner@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall PO Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical–chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical–chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. - Highlights: • Approaches to predict risk directly from nanomaterial (NM) properties are problematic. • We propose

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  17. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  18. Using ensemble weather forecast in a risk based real time optimization of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2015-01-01

    on DORA's approach, this study investigated the implementation of long forecast horizon using an ensemble forecast from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The uncertainty of the prediction is characterized by an ensemble of 25 forecast scenarios. According to the status of the UDS......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast....... However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based...

  19. Proposed Method for Estimating Traffic Accident Risk Factors Based on Object Tracking and Behavior Prediction Using Particle Filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natori, Youichi; Kawamoto, Kazuhiko; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Hirota, Kaoru

    A traffic accident prediction method using a priori knowledge based on accident data is proposed for safe driving support. Implementation is achieved by an algorithm using particle filtering and fuzzy inference to estimate accident risk factors. With this method, the distance between the host vehicle and a vehicle ahead and their relative velocity and relative acceleration are obtained from the results of particle filtering of driving data and are used as attributes to build the relative driving state space. The attributes are evaluated as likelihoods and then consolidated as a risk level using fuzzy inference. Experimental validation was done using videos of general driving situations obtained with an on-vehicle CCD camera and one simulated accident situation created based on the video data. The results show that high risk levels were calculated with the proposed method in the early stages of the accident situations.

  20. The accident at Gorleben: A case study of risk communication and risk amplification in the Federal Republic of Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, H P; Hennen, L [Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (USA). Center for Technology, Environment, and Development

    1988-07-01

    On May 12, 1987 an accident happened in the ``pilot mine`` at Gorleben in the Federal Republic of Germany where the feasibility of a repository or high-radioactive nuclear waste is currently being investigated. A miner was killed during that accident and two others were severely injured. Although this accident happened during conventional mining work and had nothing to do with radioactive waste, this event received much public attention and news coverage and had a strong impact on the political debate on the Gorleben project of a repository mine for radioactive waste and even on the nuclear power controversy in general. This study does not aim to evaluate the accident that happened in the Gorleben pilot mine from a geological point of view nor does it aim to evaluate the West German waste disposal concept. All information given in chapter 2 on these aspects should be considered as background information, useful in understanding the subject of this case study: the risk communication concerning the Gorleben project in general and the accident in the shaft in particular.

  1. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  2. Risk Forecasting of Karachi Stock Exchange: A Comparison of Classical and Bayesian GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhat Iqbal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the estimation, forecasting and evaluation of Value-at-Risk (VaR of Karachi Stock Exchange before and after the global financial crisis of 2008 using Bayesian method. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models under the assumption of normal and heavy-tailed errors are used to forecast one-day-ahead risk estimates. Various measures and backtesting methods are employed to evaluate VaR forecasts. The observed number of VaR violations using Bayesian method is found close to the expected number of violations. The losses are also found smaller than the competing Maximum Likelihood method. The results showed that the Bayesian method produce accurate and reliable VaR forecasts and can be preferred over other methods. 

  3. Accident Management & Risk-Based Compliance With 40 CFR 68 for Chemical Process Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Kula, K.R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States); Taylor, R.P. Jr.; Ashbaugh, S.G. [Innovative Technology Solutions, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-08-23

    A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision-makers may use the Accident Progression Event Tree approach to identify the best countermeasure for minimizing deleterious consequences to receptor groups before the atmospheric release has initiated. It is concluded that the chemical process industry may use this methodology as a supplemental information provider to better comply with the Environmental Protection Agency`s proposed 40 CFR 68 Risk Management Program rule. An illustration using a benzene-nitric acid potential interaction demonstrates the value of the logic process. The identification of worst-case releases and planning for emergency response are improved through these methods, at minimum. It also provides a systematic basis for prioritizing facility modifications to correct vulnerabilities.

  4. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima.

  5. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    useful in emergency situations. The backtracking modelling feature and the possibility of importing spill locations from remote servers with observed data (per example, from flight surveillance or remote sensing) allow the potential application to the evaluation of possible contamination sources. The third tool developed is an innovative system to dynamically produce quantified risk levels in real time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools. This system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes (determined in EROCIPS project), real time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System (www.mohid.com). Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information, and metocean conditions, and results from these simulations are used in the quantification the consequences of potential spills. Dynamic Risk Tool was not designed to replace conventional mapping tools, but to complement that type of information with an innovative approach to risk mapping. Taking advantage of interoperability between forecasting models, oil spill simulations, AIS monitoring systems, statistical data and coastal vulnerability, this software can provide to end-users realtime risk levels, allowing an innovative approach to risk mapping, providing decision-makers with an improved decision support model and also an intelligent risk-based traffic monitoring. For instance, this tool allows the prioritisation of individual

  6. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  7. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG (radioisotope thermoelectric generator) on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, M. (California Univ., Davis, CA (USA)); Nelson, R.C. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA)); Bollinger, L. (Air Force Inspection and Safety Center, Kirtland AFB, NM (USA)); Hoover, M.D. (Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (USA). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.); Templeton, W. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Anspaugh, L. (Lawren

    1990-11-02

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher. 83 refs.

  8. Risk of in-itinere accident in primary health care professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica A. Cruz-Toscano

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background Traffic accidents represent a priority for public health since they are responsible for high mortality tolls, elevated economic costs and a significant social impact. Ecuador ranks as the seventh country in the World with a higher mortality rate. Aims To know the risk level of in-itinere accidents for workers of a primary care facility. Methods Descriptive transversal study through the application of a basic survey from 136 sanitary and non-sanitary professionals. Results The means to commute used by workers corresponds to public transportation (57.4 per cent and automobile (26.5 per cent, being the time invested in traveling to work is greater than 30 minutes. A statistical significant relationship can be observed between the transportation mean used to commute to the medical center and the time invested with the ending score of the risk to suffer a TA (p<0.05 for workers. Conclusion A necessity to establish road safety programs rises to control such risk factors that influence the possibility to suffer a commuting accident for the sanitary personnel.

  9. Risk of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Shunichi; Suzuki, Shinichi

    2013-09-01

    The appropriateness of the initial response and countermeasures taken following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 should be further examined. Implementation of a prospective epidemiological study on human health risks from low-dose radiation exposure and comprehensive health protection from radiation should be emphasized on a basis of the lessons learnt from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. In contrast, the doses to a vast majority of the population in Fukushima were not high enough to expect to see any increase in incidence of cancer and health effects in the future, however, public concerns about the long-term health effects of radioactive environmental contamination have increased in Japan. Since May 2011, the Fukushima Prefecture started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project with the purpose of long-term health care administration and early medical diagnosis/treatment for prefectural residents. In this report, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence after nuclear accidents, especially due to early exposure of radioactive iodine, will be focused upon to understand the current situation of risk of thyroid cancer in Fukushima, and the difficult challenges surrounding accurate estimations of low-dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures will be discussed.

  10. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  11. Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Matte

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost–loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s. In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple

  12. Expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks related to occupational safety and health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milczarek, M.; Brun, E.; Houtman, I.; Goudswaard, A.; Evers, M.; Bovenkamp, M. van de; Roskams, N.; Op de Beeck, R.; Pahkin, K.; Berthet, M.; Morvan, E.; Kuhn, K.; Kaluza, K.; Hupke, M.; Hauke, A.; Reinert, D.; Widerszal-Bazyl, M.; Perez, J.; Oncins de Frutos, M.

    2007-01-01

    This report is in cooperation with TNO Work and Employment and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. The expert forecast on emerging psychosocial risks was carried out by means of the Delphi method. The main emerging psychosocial risks revealed were related to new forms of employment

  13. Professional shift-work drivers who adopt prophylactic naps can reduce the risk of car accidents during night work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbarino, Sergio; Mascialino, Barbara; Penco, Maria Antonietta; Squarcia, Sandro; De Carli, Fabrizio; Nobili, Lino; Beelke, Manolo; Cuomo, Gianni; Ferrillo, Franco

    2004-11-01

    Night work can be dangerous because both circadian sleep propensity (process C) and sleep pressure due to the prolonged wakefulness (process S) contribute to the reduction of vigilance levels. As naps are a countermeasure to sleepiness, this study evaluates the role they play in preventing sleep-related accidents in Italian shift-working police drivers. The study concerns highway car accidents that occurred to Italian shift-working police drivers; it was performed in 2 steps: a retrospective analysis of the overall number of accidents that occurred during the years 1993--1997 (n, 1195), followed by a validation analysis of a smaller cohort of accidents prospectively collected during 2003 (n, 84). N/A. RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS: The influence of process S, process C, driver characteristics, and context conditions on accident risk, estimated by means of Cox hazard regression, revealed that nighttime accident risk was mainly influenced by process S levels. Consequently, an experimental mathematical model linking the hourly observed number of accidents to process S levels was designed. Its generalization to the theoretical case of drivers omitting naps showed an increase of about 38% of accidents. PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS: In order to validate our results, we compared retrospective and prospective sleep patterns: no statistical difference was found. Again, the hourly number of accidents increased with homeostatic sleep pressure; the theoretical efficacy of napping was quantified in 48% accidents decrease. Our data seem to confirm that napping before working a night shift is an effective countermeasure to alertness and performance deterioration associated with night work. Moreover, this self-initiated behavior could have a prophylactic efficacy in reducing the number of car accidents.

  14. Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.

    2004-07-01

    Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are

  15. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  16. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binquan Li

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2% were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band for the reservoir flood routing calculation.

  17. The possible influence of risk management, forecasting, and personnel training in physical asset management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeman, Jacobus Smit

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The work presented in this paper highlights the possible effects of risk management, forecasting, and personnel training in the physical asset management environment. Each section is taken separately, and an argument is formed as to why it is important and what portion of the physical asset management five-year budget each should receive. This paper considers the long-term and short-term benefits in its conclusion that risk management should receive 60 per cent of the budget, personnel training 25 per cent, and forecasting the final 15 per cent.

  18. Web-based hydrological modeling system for flood forecasting and risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Cheng, Qiuming

    2008-10-01

    Mechanism of flood forecasting is a complex system, which involves precipitation, drainage characterizes, land use/cover types, ground water and runoff discharge. The application of flood forecasting model require the efficient management of large spatial and temporal datasets, which involves data acquisition, storage, pre-processing and manipulation, analysis and display of model results. The extensive datasets usually involve multiple organizations, but no single organization can collect and maintain all the multidisciplinary data. The possible usage of the available datasets remains limited primarily because of the difficulty associated with combining data from diverse and distributed data sources. Difficulty in linking data, analysis tools and model is one of the barriers to be overcome in developing real-time flood forecasting and risk prediction system. The current revolution in technology and online availability of spatial data, particularly, with the construction of Canadian Geospatial Data Infrastructure (CGDI), a lot of spatial data and information can be accessed in real-time from distributed sources over the Internet to facilitate Canadians' need for information sharing in support of decision-making. This has resulted in research studies demonstrating the suitability of the web as a medium for implementation of flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. Web-based hydrological modeling system can provide the framework within which spatially distributed real-time data accessed remotely to prepare model input files, model calculation and evaluate model results for flood forecasting and flood risk prediction. This paper will develop a prototype web-base hydrological modeling system for on-line flood forecasting and risk mapping in the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) area, southern Ontario, Canada, integrating information retrieval, analysis and model analysis for near real time river runoff prediction, flood frequency prediction, flood risk and flood inundation

  19. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Niiat, Khosro Sadegh

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness) among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran) participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013-2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR) = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-4.77), smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15-3.97), and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21). The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07-23.83) were the best predictors for odds (increased risk) of road accidents. A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea - OSA). Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian occupational drivers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under

  20. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hossein Ebrahimi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. Material and Methods: In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013–2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Results: Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.15–4.77, smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15–3.97, and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03–1.21. The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07–1.23 and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07–23.83 were the best predictors for odds (increased risk of road accidents. Conclusions: A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea – OSA. Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian

  1. [Nuclear accidents and iodine prophylaxis. Part 1: Risks due to irradiation of the thyroid gland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeesters, P; Frühling, J; Van Bladel, L; Wambersie, A

    1998-12-01

    In the frame of the emergency procedures in the case of an accident in a nuclear plant, this paper presents a survey of the information available on the risks related to the irradiation of the thyroid gland. Attention is focused on thyroid cancer resulting from an exposure to radioactive isotopes of iodine and especially and iodine-131. The consequences of the medical exposures as well as of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki irradiations are recalled first. Then the recently available informations on the effects on the populations exposed after the Tchernobyl accident are analysed more in details. Ten years after the accident, the most striking and the least questionable effects is a significant increase of the incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer in children, in the areas most exposed to the initial radioactive clouds. Young children are particularly vulnerable to this type of cancer which is of aggressive nature and shows a short latency period. These observations justify an iodine prophylaxis for the populations living in the vicinity of nuclear plants. Special attention should be paid to the protection of young children.

  2. Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2015-10-01

    Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

  3. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

  4. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a mor

  5. Bankruptcy risk forecasting for the metallurgical branch in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Răchişan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available All investment decisions require a thorough analysis of the retrospective evolution of the entities from the concerned area, in order to estimate the long-term evolution perspectives. In this context, the present study analyzes the evolution of the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector based on the accounting and financial information published for the period 2008 - 2012 and, in fact, it justifies the situation from the perspective of users (managers, investors, auditors and of the economic environment specific to Romania. Starting from this premise we created a regression model particularly useful in forecasting the evolution of the ability to deal with debt for the entities from the Romanian metallurgical sector.

  6. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  7. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K. [Risk Communication Study Office, Japan Atomic Energy Agency 4-33 Muramatsu, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki, 319-1194 (Japan)

    2013-07-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.

  8. Information and communication technologies, a tool for risk prevention and accident management on sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Lépy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice melting topic is a repetitive phenomenon in alarmist speeches on climate change. The present positive evolution of air temperatures has in all probability many impacts on the environment and more or less directly on societies. Face to the temperature elevation, the ice pack is undergone to an important temporal variability of ice growth and melting. Human populations can be exposed to meteorological and ice hazards engendering a societal risk. The purpose of this paper is to better understand how ICT get integrated into the risk question through the example of the Bay of Bothnia in the northern extremity of the Baltic Sea. The study deals with the way that Finnish society, advanced in the ICT field, faces to new technology use in risk prevention and accident management on sea ice.

  9. Estimating Systematic Risk With Long-Term Growth Forecasts and Analyst Following

    OpenAIRE

    Richard J. Dowen

    1992-01-01

    According to the capital asset pricing model, a stockÕs required rate of return is determined by systematic risk, otherwise known as beta. Usually betas are estimated using historic data. It is shown here that future betas have a stronger relationship to analystsÕ long-term growth forecast than to historic betas.

  10. Operational Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response for Multi-Scale Flood Risks in Developing Cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelis Prada, M.C.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this book is to contribute to the understanding of the risk knowledge and forecasting components of flood early warning in the particular environment of tropical high mountains in developing cities. These represent a challenge taking into account the persistent lack of data, limited

  11. Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Emma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

  12. The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Bonaccolto

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Several market and macro-level variables influence the evolution of equity risk in addition to the well-known volatility persistence. However, the impact of those covariates might change depending on the risk level, being different between low and high volatility states. By combining equity risk estimates, obtained from the Realized Range Volatility, corrected for microstructure noise and jumps, and quantile regression methods, we evaluate the forecasting implications of the equity risk determinants in different volatility states and, without distributional assumptions on the realized range innovations, we recover both the points and the conditional distribution forecasts. In addition, we analyse how the the relationships among the involved variables evolve over time, through a rolling window procedure. The results show evidence of the selected variables’ relevant impacts and, particularly during periods of market stress, highlight heterogeneous effects across quantiles.

  13. Fatal connections--socioeconomic determinants of road accident risk and drunk driving in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Niclas A

    2013-09-01

    In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact. This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving. Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor. The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system. 23 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  15. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  16. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  17. Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C Sauter

    Full Text Available There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes.This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression.Two hundred and eighty (280 patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235 patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9% and traumatic brain injury (TBI was detected in 28 patients (10%. Eight (8 of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15, (29.6% exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both.In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05, but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171.In patients

  18. EXPRESS METHOD OF ESTIMATION OF THE POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL RISK IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS ON TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The present research is aimed to the development of a method to assess the potential territorial risk in accidents on the railways, which takes into account the specificity of the chemically hazardous substances emission in emergency situations during their transportation. Methodology. The basis of the proposed method is numerical modeling of the transfer process is chemically dangerous substances in the atmosphere. The basis of the numerical model is the equation of convective-diffusion transfer of chemically hazardous substances. This equation takes into account the dispersion in atmosphere of dangerous substances due to wind and atmospheric diffusion. For the numerical integration of the equations of transfer of chemically hazardous substances in the atmosphere is applied an implicit finite-difference scheme of splitting. Based on the constructed numerical model was developed method for the assessment of potential territorial risk and generated code in algorithmic language Fortran. The developed method of spatio-temporal risk assessment takes into account: the territorial probable weather situations; emission mode of chemically hazardous substances; emission power; the movement of the source of emission. A computational experiment to assess the level of air pollution above the village Sinelnikovo during the emergency leak of ammonia was conducted. Findings. The proposed method allows calculating quicklythe potential risk of the leakage of chemically hazardous substances on the basis of the calculation of the level of pollution in different meteosituation. The method allows determining the size of the zone of toxic casualties and assessing the level of risk of accidents in railway transport. Using the developed numerical model evaluated the assessment of risk of casualties in the residential area of the village Sinelnikovo. Originality. The scientists established the method for the assessment of potential territorial risk, based on

  19. 基于事故发展与控制的隐患分级方法%Risk Classification Method for Accident Potential Based on Development and Control Measures of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵东风; 申玉琪; 赵志强; 张佑明; 孟亦飞

    2012-01-01

    For the purpose of making the management of accident potential more scientific, the relationship between accident potential and accident was discussed and studied. The fundamental property of accident potential was brought forward that it can make the accident happen or develop. The mechanism whereby accident potential functions in the accident was revealed clearly, by predicting the impelling and inhibiting factors in the accident process. The accident potential was classified into two types (the first type of accident potential and the second type of accident potential) according to the different time they work. In the risk assessment, the problem of specific accident potential grading was resolved. By introducing the assessment indexes of accident potential exposure frequency, possibility of other factors, corrective actions, the initial value of the consequences of the accident, the correction factor of personnel protection, the correction factor of personnel exposure, the correction factor of emergency measures, the correction factor of property loss, an assessment index system was established. By calculating the risk of accident potential-causing accident, the real risk of accident potential was assessed.%为使隐患管理工作更加科学,对隐患与事故的关系进行研讨,提出隐患的根本属性是能够促使事故发生或发展.通过预估促使和控制(阻碍)事故发展的因素,来揭示隐患在事故过程中的作用机制.根据发生作用的时间将隐患分为第1类隐患和第2类隐患.在风险评估过程中,解决了具体隐患风险分级的问题,提出隐患暴露频率、其他条件的可能性、隐患纠正系数、事故后果初始分值、人员防护修正系数、人员暴露修正系数、应急处理与事故控制修正系数和财产损失修正系数等评价指标.通过隐患致因事故风险的计算,评估隐患的最终风险.

  20. Daytime sleepiness and sleep habits as risk factors of traffic accidents in a group of Turkish public transport drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özer, Cahit; Etcibaşı, Şeref; Öztürk, Levent

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To explore the association of daytime sleepiness, sleep complaints and sleep habits with self-reported car crashes among public transport drivers. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out on male professional public drivers in two different cities using a validated, self-administered sleep questionnaire which comprised of symptoms suggesting sleep disorders, a subjective report of daytime sleepiness and driving characteristics. The subjects (mean age±SD, 40±11 years) were divided into two groups: (1) accident group and (2) no accident group. Results: Forty nine (15.3%) of the 320 public drivers reported that they had at least one sleepiness related motor vehicle accident and/or near-missed accident (Group 1). The mean age, body mass index and annual distance driven were similar in both groups. Although Group 1 reported less sleep time per night, more witnessed apneas, abnormal sleep, alcohol use and had higher mean Epworth Sleepiness Scale scores than Group 2, multivariate analysis of risk factors revealed that only daytime sleepiness increase the risk of traffic accidents [OR: 1.32 (1.19-1.47)]. Conclusion: These results suggest that self-reported sleepiness is a predictive sign of traffic accidents due to driver sleepiness. PMID:24482715

  1. [Method of ecological risk assessment for risk pollutants under short-term and high dose exposure in water pollution accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Bing-Li; Sun, Yan-Feng; Liu, Qian; Yu, Zhi-Qiang; Zeng, Xiang-Ying

    2011-11-01

    In recent years, water pollution accidents resulting in acute aquatic ecological risk and security issues become a research focus. However, in our country, the surface water quality standards and drinking water health standards were used to determine the safety of waters or not in pollution incidents due to lacking safety effect threshold or risk value for protection of aquatic life. In foreign countries, although predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) or risk value (R) of pollutants were provided for protection of aquatic organisms, the PNECs or risk values were derived based on long-term exposure toxicity data NOECs (no observed effect concentrations) and lack of short-term exposure risk or threshold values. For the short-term and high dose exposure in pollution incident, ecological risk assessment methods were discussed according to the procedures of the conventional ecological risk assessment and the water quality criteria establishment of the U.S. EPA for the protection of aquatic organisms in short-term exposure, and had a case study. At the same time, we provide some suggestions for the establishment of ecological risk assessment system in water pollution incidents.

  2. Questions concerning safety and risk after the nuclear accidents in Japan. Deepened accident analysis for the Fukushima Daiichi power plant; Sicherheits- und Risikofragen im Nachgang zu den nuklearen Stoer- und Unfaellen in Japan. Vertiefte Ereignisanalyse zur Anlage Fukushima-Daini

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pistner, Christoph; Englert, Matthias [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2015-02-25

    The study questions concerning safety and risk in Japanese power plants following the disastrous nuclear accident covers the following issues: the nuclear facility Fukushima Daiichi, site characterization, important technical equipment, important electro-technical equipment, personal; description of the accident progression in the Fukushima nuclear power plant: impact of the earthquake, impact of the tsunami, short-term measures of the operating personnel, pressure and temperature situation in the containments, restoration of the after-heat cooling system in the units 1/2 and 4, fuel element storage pool, summarized parameters during the accident progress; comparative analysis of the accident progression at the Fukushima Daiichi site.

  3. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  4. Forecasting Sovereign Default risk with Merton’s Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G. Duyvesteyn (Johan); M.P.E. Martens (Martin)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMerton's structural model for sovereigns is proven to be useful to analyze the default risk of a country. We are the first to investigate how fast CDS spreads react to changes in model inputs and outputs. CDS spread changes strongly correlate with exchange rate returns, which are an

  5. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  6. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Cask Drop Accident during On-site Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Jae Hyun; Christian, Robby; Momani, Belal Al; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are two ways to transfer the SNF from a site to other site, one is land transportation and the other is maritime transportation. Maritime transportation might be used because this way uses more safe route which is far from populated area. The whole transportation process can be divided in two parts: transferring the SNF between SNP and wharf in-Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site by truck, and transferring the SNF from the wharf to the other wharf by ship. In this research, on-site SNF transportation between SNP and wharf was considered. Two kinds of single accident can occur during this type of SNF transportation, impact and fire, caused by internal events and external events. In this research, PRA of cask drop accident during onsite SNF transportation was done, risk to a person (mSv/person) from a case with specific conditions was calculated. In every 11 FEM simulation drop cases, FDR is 1 even the fuel assemblies are located inside of the cask. It is a quite larger value for all cases than the results with similar drop condition from the reports which covers the PRA on cask storage system. Because different from previous reports, subsequent impact was considered. Like in figure 8, accelerations which are used to calculate the FDR has extremely higher values in subsequent impact than the first impact for all SNF assemblies.

  7. Current research and development activities on fission products and hydrogen risk after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishimura, Takeshi; Hoshi, Harutaka; Hotta, Akitoshi [Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority, Tokyo (Japan)

    2015-02-15

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, new regulatory requirements were enforced in July 2013 and a backfit was required for all existing nuclear power plants. It is required to take measures to prevent severe accidents and mitigate their radiological consequences. The Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R) has been conducting numerical studies and experimental studies on relevant severe accident phenomena and countermeasures. This article highlights fission product (FP) release and hydrogen risk as two major areas. Relevant activities in the S/NRA/R are briefly introduced, as follows: 1. For FP release: Identifying the source terms and leak mechanisms is a key issue from the viewpoint of understanding the progression of accident phenomena and planning effective countermeasures that take into account vulnerabilities of containment under severe accident conditions. To resolve these issues, the activities focus on wet well venting, pool scrubbing, iodine chemistry (in-vessel and ex-vessel), containment failure mode, and treatment of radioactive liquid effluent. 2. For hydrogen risk: because of three incidents of hydrogen explosion in reactor buildings, a comprehensive reinforcement of the hydrogen risk management has been a high priority topic. Therefore, the activities in evaluation methods focus on hydrogen generation, hydrogen distribution, and hydrogen combustion.

  8. Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: case of Paris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maestracci, Marion; Prochasson, François; Geffroy, Aurélie; Peccoud, Florian

    2012-11-01

    For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians.

  9. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  10. Inter-basin water transfer-supply model and risk analysis with consideration of rainfall forecast information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.

  11. Seismic risk assessment at local level taking into account possible technological accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Seismic safety of population and urban territories is one of the most complicated problems of seismology and earthquake engineering worldwide. It is especially vital for the earthquake prone regions with high level of seismicity and high density of population. The paper contains the results of the recent study that was done by Seismological Center of IGE, Russian Academy of Sciences, Extreme Situations Research Center and "Rosstrojizyskaniya" Ltd aimed at verification of engineering geological conditions, updating of previous map of seismic microzonation and seismic risk assessment for the Sochi City territory. The City is located in the Krasnodar area, which is characterized by a high density population and a rather high level of seismic hazard. According to maps of review seismic zoning of the Russian Federation territory, earthquakes with intensities I = 6-10 according to the MMSK-86 scale may occur here. The City territory is located along the Black Sea shore and characterized by different level potential of landslides, mudflow, erosion and other geological hazardous processes. The Imeretinskaya valley, where future Olympic Games' facilities are under construction, are located within the marine terrace composed predominantly by gravel-pebble deposits with sand and clay with thickness more than 30 m; the bedrock at the depth of about 70 -90 m, the groundwater level encountered at depths of 0.2-4 m from the surface. According to recent seismic risk assessment at regional level for more that 60% of the Krasnodar area territory, the values of seismic risk computed taking into account the secondary technological accidents exceed the value of 1.0×10-5 1/year. Regional estimation of risk obtained for the Sochi City is equal to 35.0×10-5; contribution of technological risk to seismic one is about 5.0×10-5. The work is under way within the Russian Federal Program "Development of the Sochi City as a mountain resort in 2006 - 2014". The paper will present the results

  12. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  13. Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

    1996-01-01

    In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

  14. Managing Forecast Uncertainty and Risk in Multireservoir, Multiobjective, and Multistakeholder Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistenmacher, M.; Georgakakos, A. P.

    2012-12-01

    Hydroclimatic forecasts are often issued in probabilistic form to capture the uncertainties that remain in forecasting inflow magnitude and timing. These forecasts can then be used as input to stochastic management models to help operate reservoir systems and provide stakeholders with probabilistic forecasts of system variables, such as reservoir storages, releases, hydropower production, water withdrawals, and water quality parameters. However, due to high computational requirements, many stochastic management models only evaluate one management policy and are therefore not capable of exploring risk management options. Furthermore, such models usually neglect elements of the real-life water resources systems that they are supposed to represent. This presentation focuses on several advances designed to address these shortcoming and shows their application to a real-life reservoir system in California's Central Valley. This first part of the study focuses on exploring and managing the risks and uncertainties in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly consider issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to explore different risk management options was developed. The technique allows users to derive policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences by imposing variance constraints on relevant system variables. The second part of this study highlights the expansion of an existing management model, previously only considering monthly water quantity fluxes, to incorporate water quality and flood control objectives. An existing water temperature model is analyzed and used to produce a reduced order model while the flood control objectives are considered through the development

  15. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Philip

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents.A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents.As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05. The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05, 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05, 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05, and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05. Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents.Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  16. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  17. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  18. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  19. Risk-based decision making in water management using probabilistic forecasts: results from a game experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Wood, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic streamflow forecasts have been increasingly used or requested by practitioners in the operation of multipurpose water reservoirs. They usually integrate hydrologic inflow forecasts to their operational management rules to optimize water allocation or its economic value, to mitigate droughts, for flood and ecological control, among others. In this paper, we present an experiment conducted to investigate the use of probabilistic forecasts to make decisions on water reservoir outflows. The experiment was set up as a risk-based decision-making game. In the game, each participant acted as a water manager. A sequence of probabilistic inflow forecasts was presented to be used to make a reservoir release decision at a monthly time step, subject to a few constraints. After each decision, the actual inflow was presented and the consequences of the decisions made were discussed. Results from the application of the game to different groups of scientists and operational managers during conferences and meetings in 2013 (a total of about 150 participants) illustrate the different strategies adopted by the players. This game experiment allowed participants to experience first hand the challenges of probabilistic, quantitative decision-making.

  20. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  1. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  2. Assessment of accident risk among elderly in domestic environment: A cross-sectional study in rural south Karnataka, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radha Y Aras

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geriatric population is vulnerable to domestic accidents. Safety-related provisions/behavior in domestic environment can reduce the risk of accidents. Aim and Objective: To know the safety practices followed at home by people above 60 years age and to assess few epidemiological factors associated with their risk of domestic accident. Study Design: A community-based cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods: Using Lot Quality Technique, 135 elderly (out of 196; at 7% desired level of accuracy, 95% desired confidence level, willing to participate, were interviewed for their practices towards accident prevention. Observations were made regarding safety provisions within homes. The data was recorded in predesigned, pre-tested, semi-structured proformas, based on Home Safety Checklist Tool. Statistical Analysis Used: SPSS package version 17. Fisher′s Exact test applied for statistical significance of factors related to accident risk in domestic environment. Results: Elderly from joint families significantly keep passage of bedroom to bathroom free from obstacles, telephone cords away from walking area and use stool to reach high cupboard (P < 0.0005. In nuclear families, stairway was kept adequately lighted (P < 0.05. Literate elderly put away things back to its place after using, walk in room without obstacles, keep soap reachable during bath, keep stairways in good condition, use doormats to wipe feet (P < 0.05. Habit of not cleaning up spills (85.2%, walking on wet floor (60.7%, and no grab bars in bathrooms (53.3% were observed. Conclusion: Provision and use of home safety measures/practices with needful awareness and attitude are important to prevent domestic accidents amongst elderly.

  3. A functional assay-based strategy for nanomaterial risk forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Gregory V; Unrine, Jason M; Wiesner, Mark R

    2015-12-01

    The study of nanomaterial impacts on environment, health and safety (nanoEHS) has been largely predicated on the assumption that exposure and hazard can be predicted from physical-chemical properties of nanomaterials. This approach is rooted in the view that nanoöbjects essentially resemble chemicals with additional particle-based attributes that must be included among their intrinsic physical-chemical descriptors. With the exception of the trivial case of nanomaterials made from toxic or highly reactive materials, this approach has yielded few actionable guidelines for predicting nanomaterial risk. This article addresses inherent problems in structuring a nanoEHS research strategy based on the goal of predicting outcomes directly from nanomaterial properties, and proposes a framework for organizing data and designing integrated experiments based on functional assays (FAs). FAs are intermediary, semi-empirical measures of processes or functions within a specified system that bridge the gap between nanomaterial properties and potential outcomes in complex systems. The three components of a functional assay are standardized protocols for parameter determination and reporting, a theoretical context for parameter application and reference systems. We propose the identification and adoption of reference systems where FAs may be applied to provide parameter estimates for environmental fate and effects models, as well as benchmarks for comparing the results of FAs and experiments conducted in more complex and varied systems. Surface affinity and dissolution rate are identified as two critical FAs for characterizing nanomaterial behavior in a variety of important systems. The use of these FAs to predict bioaccumulation and toxicity for initial and aged nanomaterials is illustrated for the case of silver nanoparticles and Caenorhabditis elegans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions.

  5. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  6. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date, res...... in this analysis. In conclusion, further research must focus on the development of model structures that allow the proper separation of dry and wet weather uncertainties and simulate runoff uncertainties depending on the rainfall input.......Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date......, research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore...

  7. Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachmann D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within emergency response. However, the information provided for decision support is often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in current early warning and response systems. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. This paper presents the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the first results from two prototype applications of the new developed concept: The first prototype is applied to the Rotterdam area situated in the western part of the Netherlands. The second pilot study focusses on a rural area between the cities of Mantua and Ferrara along the Po river (Italy.

  8. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  9. New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilling, Charlie

    2017-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial

  10. Environment Risk Analysis on Fire Accident of Crude Oil Storage Tank%原油储罐火灾事故环境风险评价分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李冬梅

    2012-01-01

    By using the ADMS model, in this paper, the environmental influence of toxic and harmful gas emissions and associated/secondary pollution is forecasted during fire & explosion accident of 2 × 104m3 crude oil storage tank. The results show that it has a great influence on environment, under the condition of 6 h burning, the produced gas pollutants will cause half people die within 120 m of the accident center, hypoxia in the range of 120-240 m, and won't cause life risk in the range of 240-4 725m. Pollutants concentration at 4 725 m will exceed the maximum value of workshop limit value. Corresponding management measures for the environment risks are put forward. It provides reference for the environmental impact assessment of alike accidents, and the management of environmental protection agencies in the future.%通过运用ADMS模型,对2万m3原油储罐发生火灾爆炸事故时有毒有害气体及燃烧次生污染物的环境影响进行预测.结果表明,其产生的废气污染物对环境影响较大;在火灾持续6h的情况下,产生的主要废气污染物在距离事故中心120m范围内的人员将有半数死亡;距120~240m范围内造成组织缺氧;距240~4725 m人员不会有生命危险;距离4725m范围内污染物的浓度超出车间最高允许浓度要求.同时提出了相应的环境风险管理措施,为今后类似事故环境影响评价作借鉴,为环保部门环境管理提供参考.

  11. Prediction Study of Tunnel Collapse Risk in Advance based on Efficacy Coefficient Method and Geological Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    QIU Daohong

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Collapse is one of the most common accidents in underground constructions. Risk evaluation is the method of measuring the risk of chamber collapse. To ensure the safety of construction, a risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse based on an efficacy coefficient method and geological prediction was put forward. Based on the comprehensive analysis of collapse factors, five main factors including rock uniaxial compressive strength, surrounding rock integrated coefficient, state of discontinuous structural planes, the angle between tunnel axis and major structural plane and underground water were chosen as the risk evaluation indices of tunnel collapse. The evaluation indices were quantitatively described by using TSP203 system and core-drilling to establish the risk early warning model of tunnel collapse based on the basic principle of the efficacy coefficient method. The model established in this research was applied in the collapse risk recognition of Kiaochow Bay subsea tunnel in Qingdao, China. The results showed that the collapse risk recognition method presents higher prediction accuracy and provided a new idea for the risk prediction of tunnel collapse.

  12. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  13. Derivation of Accident-Specific Material-at-Risk Equivalency Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jason P. Andrus; Dr. Chad L. Pope

    2012-05-01

    A novel method for calculating material at risk (MAR) dose equivalency developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) now allows for increased utilization of dose equivalency for facility MAR control. This method involves near-real time accounting for the use of accident and material specific release and transport. It utilizes all information from the committed effective dose equation and the five factor source term equation to derive dose equivalency factors which can be used to establish an overall facility or process MAR limit. The equivalency factors allow different nuclide spectrums to be compared for their respective dose consequences by relating them to a specific quantity of an identified reference nuclide. The ability to compare spectrums to a reference limit ensures that MAR limits are in fact bounding instead of attempting to establish a representative or bounding spectrum which may lead to unintended or unanalyzed configurations. This methodology is then coupled with a near real time material tracking system which allows for accurate and timely material composition information and corresponding MAR equivalency values. The development of this approach was driven by the complex nature of processing operations in some INL facilities. This type of approach is ideally suited for facilities and processes where the composition of the MAR and possible release mechanisms change frequently but in well defined fashions and in a batch-type nature.

  14. Safety Assessment of High-Risk Operations in Hydroelectric-Project Based on Accidents Analysis, SEM, and ANP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Lan Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety risk analysis and assessment of high-risk work system in hydroelectric project has an important role in safety management. The interactive relationships between human factors and the importance of factors are analyzed and proposed. We analyze the correlation relationship among the factors by using statistical method, which is more objective than subjective judgment. The HFACS is provided to establish a rational and an applicable index system for investigating human error in accidents; the structural equation modeling (SEM and accident data are used to construct system model and acquire the path coefficient among the risk factor variables; the ANP model is built to assess the importance of accident factors. 289 pieces of valid questionnaires data are analyzed to obtain the path coefficient between risk factor variables and to build the ANP model’s judgment matrix. Finally, the human factors’ weights are calculated by ANP model. Combining SEM’s results and factor's frequency analysis and building the ANP model, the results show that the four greatest weight values of the factors are, respectively, “personal readiness,” “perception and decision errors,” “skill-based errors,” and “violation operations.” The results of ANP model provide a reference for the engineering and construction management.

  15. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan.

  16. With safety more safe. An intelligent data management reduces the risk of accidents and supports the accident management; Mit Sicherheit sicherer. Intelligentes Datenmanagement minimiert das Stoerfallrisiko und unterstuetzt das Stoerfallmanagement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wegg, Dirk [Siemens Industry Software GmbH and Co KG, Essen (Germany)

    2012-02-15

    It was not always possible to avoid accidents in industrial plants. Unfortunately, there will be no absolute security. Newest technologies, innovative solutions and effective safety concepts allow a significant reduction of the risk especially for critical applications. An intelligent data management system is an important tool for this reduction of risk.

  17. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  18. Visual Function as a Risk Factor for Road Traffic Accidents among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Information obtained included demographic data, operational route, history of involvement in road traffic accident ... Frequency tables were then generated. ... Periodic ocular examination will contribute significantly to the reduction of RTAs.

  19. What are the Risk Factors for Cerebrovascular Accidents After Elective Orthopaedic Surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minhas, Shobhit V; Goyal, Preeya; Patel, Alpesh A

    2016-03-01

    Perioperative cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) are one of the leading causes of patient morbidity, mortality, and medical costs. However, little is known regarding the rates of these events and risk factors for CVA after elective orthopaedic surgery. Our goals were to (1) establish the national, baseline proportion of patients experiencing a 30-day CVA and the timing of CVA; and (2) determine independent risk factors for 30-day CVA rates after common elective orthopaedic procedures. Patients undergoing elective TKA, THA, posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, anterior cervical discectomy and fusion, and total shoulder arthroplasty, from 2006 to 2012, were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program(®) database. A total of 42,150 patients met inclusion criteria. Thirty-day CVA rates were recorded for each procedure, and patients were assessed for characteristics associated with CVA through univariate analysis. Multivariate regression models were created to identify independent risk factors for CVA. A total of 55 (0.13%) patients experienced a CVA within 30 days of the procedure, occurring a median of 2 days after surgery (range, 1-30 days) with 0.08% of patients experiencing a CVA after TKA, 0.15% after THA, 0.00% after single-level anterior cervical discectomy and fusion, 0.38% after multilevel anterior cervical discectomy and fusions, 0.20% after single-level posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, 0.70% after multilevel posterior or posterolateral lumbar fusion, and 0.22% after total shoulder arthroplasty. Independent risk factors for CVA included age of 75 years or older (odds ratio [OR], 2.50; 95% CI, 1.44-4.35; p = 0.001), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR, 3.08; CI, 1.47-6.45; p = 0.003), hypertension (OR, 2.71; CI, 1.19-6.13; p = 0.017), history of transient ischemic attack (OR, 2.83; CI, 1.24-6.45; p = 0.013), dyspnea (OR, 2.51; CI, 1.30-4.86; p = 0.006), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

  20. Experience of technological and natural disasters and their impact on the perceived risk of nuclear accidents after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan 2011: A cross-country analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Yamamura, Eiji

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses cross-country data compiled immediately after the Fukushima nuclear accident to investigate how the experience of such disasters affects the perception of the risk of nuclear accidents. Estimation results show that the perceived risk of a nuclear accident is positively associated with experiencing technological disasters but not with that of natural disasters.

  1. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    possible reference pool of projects and second to apply overconfidence theory (OT) to interpret expert judgments (EJ) about costs and demand as relating to a specific project up for examination. By combining flexible use of RCF with EJ based on OT interpretation it is argued that the current adjustment......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost...

  2. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  3. Atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc score, antithrombotics and risk of traffic accidents: A population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Hui-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lee, Wen-Lieng; Wang, Kuo-Yang; Wu, Tsu-Juey; Liu, Chia-Ning; Liu, Tsun-Jui

    2015-10-15

    Traffic accidents account for a substantial proportion of premature disabilities and deaths. Whether atrial fibrillation (AF) provokes while antithrombotics prevent from such events remains un-investigated. All patients ≥40years with newly diagnosed AF in 2005 were scrutinized from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005" (1 million beneficiaries) of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Institute as the AF group. Four-fold number of age-, gender-, and comorbidity-matched patients but without AF served as the Non-AF controls. Patients were followed till occurrence of hospitalization-requiring traffic injury, death, withdrawal from insurance, or the end of 2010. Cumulative incidence of traffic accidents was compared between groups, and predictors and preventive role of antithrombotics for these accidents were identified by Cox regression analysis. Within a mean follow-up of 4.3years, traffic injury occurred significantly more often in patients with AF (N=1724) than those without it (N=6896) (5.4 vs. 4.9 per 1000 person-years, log-rank p=0.012, HR 1.110, 95% CI 1.013-1.572). Cox models identified age ≧65years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, liver cirrhosis and CHADS2VASC score≧1 as risk factors for traffic injury in AF patients, whereas oral anticoagulants (HR 0.576, 95% CI 0.285-0.791, p=0.002) used in patients with CHADS2VASC score ≧1 but not antiplatelet therapy (p=0.197) as negative predictors. Patients with AF are more vulnerable to traffic accidents especially when with higher CHADS2VASC scores and other comorbidities. This tendency to traffic accidents, however, could be ameliorated by oral anticoagulation in specialized cases but not by antiplatelet therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  5. Information Sources as Explanatory Variables for the Belgian Health-Related Risk Perception of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyncke, Bart; Perko, Tanja; Van Gorp, Baldwin

    2016-06-20

    The media play an important role in risk communication, providing information about accidents, both nearby and far away. Each media source has its own presentation style, which could influence how the audience perceives the presented risk. This study investigates the explanatory power of 12 information sources (traditional media, new media, social media, and interpersonal communication) for the perceived risk posed by radiation released from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant on respondents' own health and that of the population in general. The analysis controlled for attitude toward nuclear energy, gender, education, satisfaction with the media coverage, and duration of attention paid to the coverage. The study uses a large empirical data set from a public opinion survey, which is representative for the Belgian population with respect to six sociodemographic variables. Results show that three information sources are significant regressors of perceived health-related risk of the nuclear accident: television, interpersonal communication, and the category of miscellaneous online sources. More favorable attitudes toward nuclear power, longer attention to the coverage, and higher satisfaction with the provided information lead to lower risk perception. Taken together, the results suggest that the media can indeed have a modest influence on how the audience perceives a risk.

  6. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

  7. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  8. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  9. [The medico-legal risk in obstetrics. What has been learned from studying 340 files on accidents (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutoul, J H; Chazara, C; Froge, E

    1982-01-01

    The authors, from perusal of 340 files where accidents in obstetrics were reported, have classified the medico-legal risks in pregnancy, wether the accidents gave rise or did not give rise to claims for responsibility. These accidents occurred between 1950 and 1978 and they happened during and after delivery. The classification shows up the most dangerous situations for the specialist and points out the factors that increase this risk so that systematically a preventive attitude can be taken to avoid claims, whether they are made under criminal or civil procedures. Particularly detailed have been statistical risks which are increasing continuously in association with instrumental deliveries and with the large indicence of Caesarean operation. After they have listed all the clinical forms of medico-legal risk picked out by counsel so that they can be avoided or their effects reduced, the authors have attempted to define the responsibility that the gynaecologist-obstetrician takes at present in the midst of his team that is always increasing in number. Among these are paediatricians, anaesthetists and resuscitators, midwives, nurses who give anaesthetics and all the para-medical team who have specialised responsibility which depends more or less on the needs of the gynaecologist-obstetrician. The medico-legal risks which are linked with a deficiency in premises, numbers of personnel and quality and quantity of equipment have been singled out with a relatively small balance of the characteristics of those who carried out the procedures recorded in a large series of files which are already old and which for the most part have been docketed so that they could be used without revealing any professional secrets nor legal secrets.

  10. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. [Forecasting of environmental health risk on the basis of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viktorov, A A; Gladkikh, V D; Ksenofontov, A I; Morozova, E E

    2014-01-01

    The method of iterative congruence of search of parameters of kinetic mathematical model of aging of living systems according to medical statistics is developed. Its opportunities for the description of risk functions of mortality and life expectancy for the person and animals depending on environment factors are illustrated. The concept of forecasting of environmental risks--risks to population health from ecological factors of influence--is formulated.

  12. [The risk of road traffic accidents among primary school children in Kuala Terengganu].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatimah, M; Osman, A; Masyarakat, J K; Perubatan, F

    1997-12-01

    A case control study was conducted in 1996 among primary school student in Terengganu. The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between road traffic accidents and factors such as socio-economic status, distance from school, number of siblings, behavioural problems, knowledge and attitudes of pupil and their parents towards road safety and parents' educational status. A total of 140 cases was obtained from 3 urban schools and 3 from rural schools. Cases were matched with control according to age sex and locality of residence. There were significant associations between road traffic accidents and pupils' knowledge regarding road crossing (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.19-0.85), parental supervision (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.19, 0.64) and parents having driving licences (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.856-0.999). Road safety education for pupils and parental supervision are key measures in preventing road traffic accidents among primary school children.

  13. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because...

  14. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashim, Yusof bin [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang 26300 Kuantan, Pahang (Malaysia); Taha, Zahari bin [Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering, Malaysia Pahang, 26600 Pekan, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  15. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  16. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Forester, J. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, J. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

  17. Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

    2016-01-01

    With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

  18. PSYCHOSOCIAL RISKS AND WORK-RELATED ACCIDENTS: RESEARCH STUDIES AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amparo Osca

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Work-related accidents are a problem of extreme importance due to their serious consequences. Available data on the level of personal injuries and on the economic cost of work accidents justify their study. However, the amount of variables involved, the difficulty of accessing the data and “experimental mortality”, among other reasons, may explain why this field is not a highly attractive one for researchers. Nevertheless, over the last few years, there has been a significant increase in research studies related to this area not only in our country but also in neighbouring countries. The economic crisis has aggravated this problem as employment has become more precarious. This article summarizes the principal results of two research projects carried out by the Social and Organizational Psychology Department of UNED on work-related accidents. The sample of the first study is made up of professional soldiers and the second comprises workers from two especially dangerous sectors, construction and agriculture. Following previous classifications that distinguish between personal, job and organizational variables, we review the main models and data obtained. Several practical recommendations to improve the research in this field as well as the prevention of work-related accidents can be found at the end of this article.

  19. A probability risk assessment for MACSTOR/KN-400 during an air inlet blockage accident sequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, J.H.; Jae, M. [Hanyang Univ., Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Sungdong-Gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, C. [Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety, Yusong-Gu, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    The safety assessment framework for evaluating the spent fuel dry storage facility during the air inlet blockage accident composing of three phases has been established and applied to an interim storage system. They include the analysis of the failure probability of a basket and a cylinder, the accident modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility and the accident consequence assessments. The first phase of the analysis calculated the module failure probability by modeling of the basket and the cylinder, which is major element for containing radioactive substances. The second phase includes a modeling of spent fuel dry storage facility. At this phase, the probability that radioactive substances are released to outside when the initial event happens has been calculated by the construction of the event tree methods against a various elements which affects the air inlet blockage accident. At the third phase of releasing radioactive substances, the radiation damage to affect neighborhood and storage facility worker using MACCS2 code has been evaluated quantitatively. (author)

  20. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the

  1. Does debt ceiling and government shutdown help in forecasting the us equity risk premium?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aye Goodness C.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article evaluates the predictability of the equity risk premium in the United States by comparing the individual and complementary predictive power of macroeconomic variables and technical indicators using a comprehensive set of 16 economic and 14 technical predictors over a monthly out-ofsample period of 1995:01 to 2012:12 and an in-sample period of 1986:01- 1994:12. In order to do so we consider, in addition to the set of variables used in Christopher J. Neely et al. (2013 and using a more recent dataset, the forecasting ability of two other important variables namely government shutdown and debt ceiling. Our results show that one of the newly added variables namely government shutdown provides statistically significant out-of-sample predictive power over the equity risk premium relative to the historical average. Most of the variables, including government shutdown, also show significant economic gains for a risk averse investor especially during recessions.

  2. Communicating landslide hazard and risk through global catalogs and a forecasting framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, D. B.; Adler, D.; Adler, R. F.

    2010-12-01

    over estimation of potential landslide activity areas, are geographically variable and depend on the spatial resolution of the landslide susceptibility information as well as the rainfall information and thresholds used to identify triggering conditions in time. The ability to accurately evaluate the algorithm’s performance is closely linked to the availability and accuracy of landslide event information in the global landslide catalog. Near real-time communication of susceptible landslide areas from the landslide algorithm framework is controlled by the availability and accuracy of satellite-based precipitation information. Current missions such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as well as future missions such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provide critical inputs to near real-time hazard assessment and numerical weather forecasts. Synthesizing landslide report information and the landslide hazard forecasting framework provides the unique opportunity to evaluate and communicate landslide hazard and risk globally to a broad audience, including the scientific community, public, governments, and response organizations.

  3. ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS RELATED TO ACCIDENTS AT PULP AND PAPER PLANTS: THE CASE OF THE MANTUROVO PULP AND PAPER PLANT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Gunko

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents approaches to quantitative and spatial assessment of emergency environmental risks at new sites of pulp and paper production using mathematical statistics, probability theory, and cartographic modeling. Damage assessment is based on the type and sphere (atmosphere, soil, and underground and surface waters of impact. Although damage assessment considers governmentally approved methodology, the formula suggested for the assessment contains some suitable improvements. In addition, a brief characterization of technological process at pulp and paper plants provides objective substantiation of possible accident scenarios. Conclusions discuss economic and social benefits of pulp and paper plants versus their ecological disadvantages.

  4. Emergency response and nuclear risk governance. Nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents; Notfallschutz und Risk Governance. Zur nuklearen Sicherheit bei Kernkraftwerksunfaellen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuhlen, Johannes

    2014-07-01

    The present study entitled ''Emergency Response and Nuclear Risk Governance: nuclear safety at nuclear power plant accidents'' deals with issues of the protection of the population and the environment against hazardous radiation (the hazards of nuclear energy) and the harmful effects of radioactivity during nuclear power plant accidents. The aim of this study is to contribute to both the identification and remediation of shortcomings and deficits in the management of severe nuclear accidents like those that occurred at Chernobyl in 1986 and at Fukushima in 2011 as well as to the improvement and harmonization of plans and measures taken on an international level in nuclear emergency management. This thesis is divided into a theoretical part and an empirical part. The theoretical part focuses on embedding the subject in a specifically global governance concept, which includes, as far as Nuclear Risk Governance is concerned, the global governance of nuclear risks. Due to their characteristic features the following governance concepts can be assigned to these risks: Nuclear Safety Governance is related to safety, Nuclear Security Governance to security and NonProliferation Governance to safeguards. The subject of investigation of the present study is as a special case of the Nuclear Safety Governance, the Nuclear Emergency governance, which refers to off-site emergency response. The global impact of nuclear accidents and the concepts of security, safety culture and residual risk are contemplated in this context. The findings (accident sequences, their consequences and implications) from the analyses of two reactor accidents prior to Fukushima (Three Mile Iceland in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986) are examined from a historical analytical perspective and the state of the Nuclear Emergency governance and international cooperation aimed at improving nuclear safety after Chernobyl is portrayed by discussing, among other topics, examples of &apos

  5. Drought risk management in southern Africa. The potential of long lead climate forecasts for improved drought management

    OpenAIRE

    Gibberd, V.; Rook, J.; Sear, C. B.; Williams, J. B.

    1995-01-01

    Although climate variability is the single most important factor affecting the livelihood of the people of southern Africa, there is no country in which drought risk is managed well. This mission set out to determine whether the social and economic benefits from making use of long lead climate forecast techniques for managing drought risk in southern Africa would justify investment directed towards bringing forward the techniques into operational usage. The four person mission consulted a wid...

  6. Volatility forecasting and value-at-risk estimation in emerging markets: the case of the stock market index portfolio in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modelling of volatility is important as it relates to the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR. The RiskMetrics model to forecast volatility is the benchmark in the financial sector. In an important regulatory innovation, the Basel Committee has proposed the use of an internal method for modelling VaR instead of the strict use of the benchmark model. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of RiskMetrics in comparison to other models of volatility forecasting, such as some family classes of the Generalised Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models, in forecasting the VaR in emerging markets. This paper makes use of the stock market index portfolio, the All-Share Index, as a case study to evaluate the market risk in emerging markets. The paper underlines the importance of asymmetric behaviour for VaR forecasting in emerging markets’ economies.

  7. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  8. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  9. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei; Zhou, Ying; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-12-03

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public's attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship between acceptance of nuclear power and the risk perception factors while controlling for demographic variables. Meanwhile, we assessed the median public acceptable frequencies for three levels of nuclear events. The FNA had a significant impact on risk perception of the Chinese public, especially on the factor of perceived risk, which increased from limited risk to great risk. Public acceptance of nuclear power decreased significantly after the FNA. The most sensitive groups include females, those not in public service, those with lower income, and those living close to the Tianwan nuclear power plant. Fifty percent of the survey respondents considered it acceptable to have a nuclear anomaly no more than once in 50 y. For nuclear incidents and serious incidents, the frequencies are once in 100 y and 150 y, respectively. The change in risk perception and acceptance may be attributed to the FNA. Decreased acceptance of nuclear power after the FNA among the Chinese public creates additional obstacles to further development of nuclear power in China and require effective communication strategies.

  10. OCCURRENCE OF MENTAL DISORDERS IN POPULATION AFFECTED BY RADIATION ACCIDENT: STRUCTURE, DYNAMICS, RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Rumyantseva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of damage to mental health of individuals born after theChernobylaccident remains of high interest, especially in the regions which have been subjected to significant contamination as a result of the accident. The article analyzes the dynamics of psychiatric morbidity in population of contaminated and non-contaminated areas of theBryanskregion according to state statistics and to files of neuropsychiatric ambulatory institutions. The incidence rates in the contaminated areas are found to be significantly different from those in the non-contaminated areas. Dynamics of mentally handicapped contingents after the radiation accident depends, at different stages of postaccidental situation, on a complex of factors: social, economic, radiation, and general toxic ones, which once again underlines the general social character of such disasters.

  11. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  12. [Occupational accidents in Municipio Maracaibo, Estado Zulia, Venezuela, 1979-1990. Determination of the frequency and risk factors which play a role in their production].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-D'Pool, J; Montero-Proaño, G

    1993-01-01

    During the period of 1979-1990 job-related injuries were studied in Maracaibo, Zulia state, in order to analyze frequencies and causes. This information was obtained from annual reports on job-related injuries Form Number 15-411 of the Venezuelan Institute of Social Security (IVSS) which has been implemented nationally since 1982. Accidents that caused loss of man-hours were considered; variables considered were: age, risk category, day of the week, work shift, month, type of accident, agent, type of lesion, mechanical cause, body part affected and type of the activity in which the company is involved. The results were expressed as absolute values (mean +/- SE) and relative values. The mean accidents/year was 1651 +/- 177.97, most of them occurring in the age groups of 20-29 years (368.8) and 30-39 years (359.8). The triannual mean rate was higher for the group of the non-serious accidents (50%). Tuesday was the day of higher accidental incidence (22%) in addition to the morning shift between 9 and 11 hours (55%). Manufacturing was the economic activity most affected (43%). The most common causative agents were materials, substances and radiations (35%). The use of defective tools were the most frequent causes of mechanical accidents (31%). Upper limbs (46%) and between the type of lesion contusions or/and bruises (53%). It was concluded that, although the number of workers and accidents slowly diminished, the accidents rate slightly increased.

  13. Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao WANG; Fanghua HAO; Xuan ZHANG; Wen SUN; Hongguang CHENG

    2008-01-01

    Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of envir-onmental management studies. Severe gas H2S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor under-standing and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H2S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan "Pu Guang gas field" as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up tech-nique of puffs to simulate the H2S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H2S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind dir-ection, and due to the obstruction of the mountain's body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing con-dition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H2S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.

  14. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parco S

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sergio Parco, Fulvia Vascotto, Roberto Simeone, Patrizia Visconti Department of Health Technology Assessment, Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy Background: Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Methods: Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012–2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV, and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. Results: In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012–2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%, 59 blood splashes (37.34%, and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%. The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34

  15. Association of Impact Velocity with Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities to Pedestrians in Commercial Truck-Pedestrian Accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko; Sorimachi, Kazuhiro; Imanishi, Akira; Fujimura, Takeshi

    2016-11-01

    This study aimed to clarify the relationship between truck-pedestrian crash impact velocity and the risks of serious injury and fatality to pedestrians. We used micro and macro truck-pedestrian accident data from the Japanese Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) database. We classified vehicle type into five categories: heavy-duty trucks (gross vehicle weight [GVW] ≥11 × 103 kg [11 tons (t)], medium-duty trucks (5 × 103 kg [5 t] ≤ GVW injuries at impact velocities ≥30 km/h for all five analyzed vehicle types. Therefore, serious injuries and fatalities to pedestrians could be decreased by the development and deployment of collision mitigation systems (CMSs) to all vehicles, including to commercial trucks, because CMSs can detect pedestrians in even severe conditions, such as when the drive's view is obstructed, and can reduce the impact velocity. The present results indicate that CMS design specifications should differ between vehicle types because of the strong dependence of seriousinjury and fatality risks on vehicle type.

  16. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  17. Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Li, Q B; Su, G F; Yuan, M Q

    2015-04-01

    The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p 80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error).

  18. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit; Metodologia para estimar el costo del riesgo de accidentes severos / beneficio maximo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E., E-mail: gozalo.mendoza@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  19. Forecasting lionfish sources and sinks in the Atlantic: are Gulf of Mexico reef fisheries at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Matthew W.; Bernard, Andrea M.; Shivji, Mahmood S.

    2017-03-01

    Invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles complex) now permeate the entire tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, but lionfish abundance has been measured only in select locations in the field. Despite its rapid range expansion, a comprehensive meta-population analysis of lionfish `sources' and `sinks' and consequentially the invader's potential abundance and impacts on economically important, sympatric reef fishes have not been assessed. These data are urgently needed to spatially direct control efforts and to plan for and perhaps mitigate lionfish-caused damage. Here, we use a biophysical computer model to: (1) forecast larval lionfish sources and sinks that are also delineated as low to high lionfish `density zones' throughout their invaded range, and (2) assess the potential vulnerability of five grouper and snapper species— Epinephelus morio, Mycteroperca microlepis, Epinephelus flavolimbatus, Lutjanus campechanus, and Rhomboplites aurorubens—to lionfish within these density zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that the west Florida shelf and nearshore waters of Texas, USA, and Guyana, South America, function both as lionfish sources and sinks and should be a high priority for targeted lionfish control. Furthermore, of the five groupers and snappers studied, the high fishery value E. morio (red grouper) is the Gulf of Mexico species most at risk from lionfish. Lacking a comprehensive lionfish control policy, these risk exposure data inform managers where removals should be focused and demonstrate the risk to five sympatric native groupers and snappers in the Gulf of Mexico that may be susceptible to dense lionfish aggregations, should control efforts fail.

  20. Higher prevalence of toxoplasmosis in victims of traffic accidents suggest increased risk of traffic accident in Toxoplasma-infected inhabitants of Istanbul and its suburbs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocazeybek, Bekir; Oner, Yasar Ali; Turksoy, Recep; Babur, Cahit; Cakan, Huseyin; Sahip, Nilgun; Unal, Ali; Ozaslan, Abdi; Kilic, Selcuk; Saribas, Suat; Aslan, Mustafa; Taylan, Aysegul; Koc, Sermet; Dirican, Ahmet; Uner, Huseyin Bulent; Oz, Vecdet; Ertekin, Cemalettin; Kucukbasmaci, Omer; Torun, Müzeyyen Mamal

    2009-05-30

    Reflexes of drivers who have toxoplasmosis have been shown to deteriorate from the actions of the parasitic cysts. The cysts can change the level of the neurotransmitters such as dopamine in the brain and by doing so extend the muscle response time and change personality profiles. In this study, we aimed to determine the frequency of the latent toxoplasmosis (LT) in the driver population who were either injured or died in traffic accidents reported in Istanbul and its suburbs. We compared the results with a control group and discussed the relationship between the LT and the traffic accidents. We included 218 (89.7%) non-fatal, 25 (10.3%) fatal cases in our study as study groups. A total 243 subjects, 234 (96%) male, 9 (4%) female (who were alcohol negative) compared with 191 (95.5%) male and 9 (4.5%) female subjects (control group) who had a traffic accident before but no history of toxoplasmosis were studied. Serologic tests, enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for IgG and IgM, and microimmunoflorescence (MIF) for IgG were used as the reference test, the Sabin-Feldman Dye test (SFDT) was used. According to serologic test results, LT seroprevalence in the study groups was 130 (53.5%) and in the control group 56 (28%) (paccident. In a prospective study, Toxoplasma positive and negative subjects can be monitored before they are involved in a traffic accident to clarify the cause and result relationship.

  1. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  2. Residence place as a risk factor in different types of fatal car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leveau, Carlos M; Vacchino, Marta N

    2015-01-01

    The association between place of residence, population density, relief and type of event (collision or non-collision of the vehicle) has not been evaluated in developing countries. The main objective of this study is to determine the differential factors associated with the occurrence of deaths of collision and non-collision automobile users in Patagonia, Argentina. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using as the dependent variable death by car accident (collision or non-collision of the vehicle) and sex, age, place of residence of the victim, relief and population density as the independent variables. Collision fatalities were related to areas of high population density, while non-collision fatalities were related to areas of low population density, mountainous landscape and place of residence of the victims outside the Patagonian region. The results obtained in this study indicate the need to develop differential primary prevention policies by place of residence of car occupants, focusing on Patagonia non-resident drivers and by emphasising non-collision accidents.

  3. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

  4. Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement; Donnees metrologiques et evaluation des risques en France lors de l'accident de Tchernobyl (26 avril 1986). Mise au point historique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galle, P. [Ecole Nationale Veterinaire d' Alfort, Lab. de Physique et Chimie, 94 - Maisons Alfort (France); Paulin, R. [Groupe de Recherche en Radiotoxicologie, GRT, 13 - Marseille (France); Coursaget, J. [Hopital de l' Hotel Dieu, Service de Medecine Nucleaire, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-08-01

    Metrological data and risk assessment in France during the Chernobyl accident. Historical statement. The authors indicate the origin of the data used by the French Public Health Authority in 1986 to estimate the risk of the radioactive fall out following the Chernobyl accident. The technical means developed in order to establish this data, and the precedent experience gained, are described. The principal results are given. The terms of the 28 May 1986 note to the Academy of Sciences by R. Latarjet, which concluded that the low level of this fallout did not justify any countermeasure, except the control of the imported food, are confirmed. Rational dispositions are required in order to improve the information of the population, referring to the Swedish model, which involves the intervention of the medical staff specialized in radio-toxicology, radio-pathology, nuclear medicine, and especially trained. To cite this article: P. Galle et al., C. R. Biologies 326 (2003). (authors)

  5. 基于动态风险平衡的海洋平台事故连锁风险研究%On the risk chain of the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents based on the dynamic risk balance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭恒; 陈国明; 朱渊

    2012-01-01

    The present paper is aimed at introducing a dynamic model for the offshore oil-drilling platform accidents proposed by the authors based on the two concepts, that is, the accident impetus and accident obstruction. As is well known, due to its own restricted conditions, offshore platforms, on the event of fire or explosion, are likely to suffer tragic casualties and material losses, letting alone the environmental contamination. Based on investigating and analyzing plenty of offshore platform accidents both at home and abroad, we have brought forward a new approach to dealing with such tragic accidents, that is, to finding the accident dynamic model characterized as dynamic nature and transient stability. As a matter of fact, a regular oil-drilling platform tends to present a dynamic equilibrium state between the accident impetus and the accident obstruction, while the accident dynamic state indicates a kind of energy that tends to lead to the happening of an accident whereas there exists some kind of transmitting impetus that passes on the energy that may obstruct or prevent the accident from occurring. In view of the dynamic risk balance, we have come up with the accident dynamic model consisting of four steps: first of all, the offshore platform likely to lead to grave accidents are chosen as an object of study, and next, the corresponding factors likely to cause the accidents are analyzed from the points of view of accident-incidence process, and, last of all, the countermeasures were taken in engineering, technology and management. What's more, the risk statistical data and information concerning the accident chains are to be built up when the elementary accident impetus has been determined. And, by this moment, it would be necessary to work out the probability distribution of all transmitting impetus and obstruction factors in the circumstance that the elementary accident-incidence dynamic has been calculated. Furthermore, the analysis results should be made

  6. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  8. How do user experiences with different transport modes affect the risk of traffic accidents? From the viewpoint of licence possession status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakai, Hiroshi; Usui, Shinnosuke

    2017-02-01

    Road accidents between different modes of transport-such as between automobiles and pedestrians, automobiles and bicycles, or automobiles and motorcycles-are frequent. In such cases, it is important to consider the other side's perspective. This involves the ability to correctly judge, for every given situation, how other people on the road perceive their surroundings and what they intend to do next. In this paper, we conduct two types of studies assuming that this kind of ability to consider perspectives is higher when the person is licenced to drive the mode of transport used by the other party. For Study 1, we analysed accidents involving senior citizens between the ages of 65 and 74 years, who collided with automobiles as pedestrians or cyclists (1656 and 3192 cases respectively), in terms of the accident category and type of road at the accident spot. The results indicate that possession or non-possession of a licence was irrelevant for accidents involving cyclists, but for accidents with pedestrians, senior citizens who did not possess a licence are likely to be involved in a greater number of accidents in places that require interaction with automobiles, such as while crossing at crosswalks or at intersections. For Study 2, we reviewed 875 ordinary first-class licence practical test examinees, categorised them according to their licence possession status (motorcycle licence, moped licence, or no licence), and made a category-wise comparison of the test instructor's assessment of their ability to make a left turn. The results showed that those who had a motorcycle or moped licence tended to make a left turn more safely. Thus, the results indicate that experience with different modes of transport is likely to reduce the risk of accidents. These findings may be used to popularise educational interventions encouraging users of various transport modes to consider the perspective of others (i.e. via perspective-taking). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  9. A probability risk assessment for MACSTOR/KN-400 during the air inlet blockage accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, Jung Hyun; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Chan Woo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-07-01

    Spent fuels extracted from a reactor can be reused or be deposited to all eternity. Before they are chosen between these two ways, spent fuels are stored in the intermediate storage. The spent fuel dry storage facility is an intermediate storage using air-cooling method. In Korea, because of the current situation, spent fuels derived from continuous operation of PHWRs cannot be stored in a pool, spent fuel dry storage facility is scheduled to be built by year 2016. Therefore, the use of PSA technology for designing spent fuel intermediate storage facility needs to be developed. In this study, the safety analysis for the sequence of air inlet blockage accident in spent fuel dry storage facility is analyzed.

  10. 风险识别和事故应急处理方法%Risk Identification and Accident Emergency Response Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭祥义

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the general engineering construction proj ects of hazards identification and risk anal-ysis methods,expounds the emergency response measures after the accident and accident treatment procedures and methods,reiterates about risk analysis in proj ect construction safety management and the points of accident treatment, combining with the characteristics of the engineering construction proj ect.%该文介绍了一般工程建设项目中的危险源的识别和相关风险分析方法,阐述了事故发生后的应急响应举措和事故处理程序与方法,结合工程建设项目施工的特点,重申了项目施工安全管理中关于风险分析和事故处理的要点。

  11. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters.

  12. 舟山港船舶溢油事故风险评估研究%Research of Risk Assessment on Oil Spill Accidents by Ship

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马甲益

    2012-01-01

    Mushroom growth of marine oil transportation would lead to the raising of the risk of oil spill accidents by ship year by year. As one of the important measures to prevent and control oil spill accidents by ship, scientific risk assessment of oil spill accidents by ship is becoming more and more valued. In the present article, through analyzing by synthesis to foregone oil spill accidents by ship in China and getting help from data of domestic oil spill accidents by ship and scientific assessment methods, probability and quantity of oil spill accidents by ship are predicted and assessed for Zhoushan port,conclusions and proposals are given to provide reference and basis for improving emergency response capability of oil spill accidents by ship.%国内海上油运的迅速发展将导致船舶溢油事故风险逐年增大,科学的船舶溢油事故风险评估作为船舶溢油事故防控工作的重要方面也越来越受到重视。通过对我国以往船舶溢油事故的综合分析,借助国内外溢油事故数据和科学的评估方法,对舟山港的溢油事故发生概率和溢油量进行了预测和评估。得出的结论和建议将为船舶溢油事故应急能力建设提供参考和初步依据。

  13. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, T.H. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Liang, K.S., E-mail: ksliang@alum.mit.edu [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Patelli, E. [Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Room 610, Brodie Tower, L69 3GQ (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10{sup −3}. • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10{sup −5}. - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability

  14. Discharge forecasting using MODIS and radar altimetry: potential application for transboundary flood risk management in Niger-Benue River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarpanelli, Angelica; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is one of most widespread natural disasters in the world. Its impact is particularly severe and destructive in Asia and Africa, because the living conditions of some settlements are inadequate to cope with this type of natural hazard. In this context, the estimation of discharge is extremely important to address water management and flood risk assessment. However, the inadequate monitoring network hampers any control and prediction activity that could improve these disastrous situations. In the last few years, remote sensing sensors have demonstrated their effectiveness in retrieving river discharge, especially in supporting discharge nowcasting and forecasting activities. Recently, the potential of radar altimetry was apparent when used for estimating water levels in an ungauged river site with good accuracy. It has also become a very useful tool for estimation and prediction of river discharge. However, the low temporal resolution of radar altimeter observations (10 or 35 days, depending on the satellite mission) may be not suitable for day-by-day hydrological forecasting. Differently, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), considering its proven potential for quantifying the variations in discharge of the rivers at daily time resolution may be more suited to this end. For these reasons, MODIS and radar altimetry data were used in this study to predicting and forecasting the river discharge along the Niger-Benue River, where severe flooding with extensive damage to property and loss of lives occurred. Therefore, an effective method to forecast flooding can support efforts towards creating an early warning system. In order to estimate river discharge, four MODIS products (daily, 8-day, and from AQUA and TERRA satellites) connected at three sites (two gauged and one ungauged) were used. The capability of remote sensing sensors to forecast discharge a few days in advance at a downstream section using MODIS and ENVISAT radar altimetry data

  15. Development of intergrated accident management assessment technology; development of interface modules of risk-monitoring system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, S. K.; Park, S. K.; Seok, H.; Kim, D. K.; Han, J. K.; Park, B. R. [KOPEC, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    Based on the development of interface modules with FORTE.- DynaRM can quantify risk model very fast (Very frequent risk model quantification is needed for configuration risk management).- risk monitoring system technology transfer to foreign NPPs. Contribution to component failure and maintenance control automation with the development of Tagging control System. On-Line risk monitoring system development by joint team between Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and KOPEC is a request by KEPCO. The softwares developed in this study is easily implemented at domestic NPPs without extra study or cost. Economic benefit and Software export to foreign NPPs are expected because of the development of technology related to risk monitoring system and its management. 6 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  16. Risk perception in Western Europe 10 years after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden). Center for Risk Research

    1999-12-01

    What have we learned about risk perception? Let me summarize a few highlights: Perceived risk is at the present highest with regard to acute economic needs, but the environment and nuclear technology are also important. Nuclear technology has a special role in being perceived as very low in 'control', i.e. if you can protect yourself from its hazards. Media do play an important role in risk perception, but it is more subtle than most often believed. Media do affect our beliefs by the information they bring us, but not necessarily by increasing the 'availability of what we already know'. Trust is not the primary factor in risk perception that it often is believed to be - it does play a role at a moderate level of power. It may be that trust is a necessary but not sufficient factor for risk 'acceptance'. In Western Europe, we have noted very large variations among countries both with regard to trust and perceived risk. Inclusion of other societies would probably have meant observation of even greater variation. The RISKPERCOM project serves as a starting point for further work on risk perception and technology. Attitudes and values need to be studied in a broader frame than merely perceived risk, as the project has shown. Future research on such acute topics as nuclear waste is called for; the project has already produced a number of results in that area but space restrictions preclude me from reviewing them here.

  17. A study on the overall economic risks of a hypothetical severe accident in nuclear power plant using the delphi method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Han Ki; Kim, Joo Yeon; Lee, Jai Ki [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-12-15

    Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factor. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

  18. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-03-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer

  19. Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

  20. ROFRAQ: A statistics-based empirical method for assessing accident risk from rockfalls in quarries. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences.

    OpenAIRE

    Alejano Monge, Leandro R.; Stockhausen, H.W.; Alonso Prieto, Elena Mercedes; Bastante, F.G; Ramírez Oyanguren, Pedro

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes an empirical method, called Rockfall Risk Assessment for Quarries (ROFRAQ), which assesses the risk associated with rock falls in quarries. The method is based on aprobabilistic approach that assumes that an accident occurs as a consequence of as equence of events. This method has been applied to slopes in a number of quarries, and has proved useful indetecting trouble some slopes on the basis of empirical evidence. Thus far, it has been applied to around 100 slopes from...

  1. Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

  2. Telematics and Gender Discrimination: Some Usage-Based Evidence on Whether Men’s Risk of Accidents Differs from Women’s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes Ayuso

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD, or usage-based automobile insurance (UBI, is a policy agreement tied to vehicle usage. In this paper we analyze the effect of the distance traveled on the risk of accidents among young drivers with a PAYD policy. We use regression models for survival data to estimate how long it takes them to have their first accident at fault during the coverage period. Our empirical application with real data is presented and shows that gender differences are mainly attributable to the intensity of use. Indeed, although gender has a significant effect in explaining the time to the first crash, this effect is no longer significant when the average distance traveled per day is introduced in the model. This suggests that gender differences in the risk of accidents are, to a large extent, attributable to the fact that men drive more often than women. Estimates of the time to the first accident for different driver risk types are presented. We conclude that no gender discrimination is necessary if telematics provides enough information on driving habits.

  3. A RISK MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR PREVENTING UNMANNED AIR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüdayim BAŞAK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to investigate operationally risky areas by analyzing dangers which can arise during the maintenance and flight activities of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs. For this purpose, a risk analysis methodology was introduced and then within the framework of the application, a sample of risk management model was developed. During the development of the model, personal experiences in the area of UAVs were benefited and a risk management technique consisting of five steps used by pioneering international aviation companies in fliht safety was utilized.

  4. Backtesting Value-at-Risk using Forecasts for Multiple Horizons, a Comment on the Forecast Rationality Tests of A.J. Patton and A. Timmermann

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractPatton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a

  5. Risk factors to cerebrovascular accident users in Hospital Geral Prado Valadares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Virginia Souza Santos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to identify the main risk factors for stroke in users of the General Hospital Prado Valadares, in Jequié / BA. We performed a descriptive analysis of observational retrospective approach, in 327 records of patients suffering from stroke in hospitalized HGPV from March 2003 to December 2005, since data collection occurred late in the second half of 2006. Of the records analyzed, 50.7% corresponded to females, and 26.9% of patients died and most developed only a characteristic sign or symptom of stroke (57.8%. 64.2% had a history of only one modifiable risk factor, and high blood pressure as found in the records reviewed (79.8%. It was found in this study that most patients with stroke were female, the presence of only one symptom, and only one modifiable risk factor, hypertension being the most common risk factor. From this perspective there is the immediate need for wider dissemination in the society about the risk factors for this pathology, as a means of preventing their consequences on the individual and the high costs to staying in hospital bed.

  6. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  7. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    , research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore...

  8. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?; Welche Folgen hat der Kernkraftwerksunfall in Fukushima fuer die Bewertung von Kernenergierisiken?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. Sozialwissenshaften V; Gallego Carrera, Diana [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). ZIRIUS Zentrum fuer Interdiszipliaere Risiko- und Innovationsforschung

    2015-06-01

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  9. Development of mechanisms for innovative projects management based on their identification and results forecast in the risk environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okolelova Ella

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the essential characteristics of innovative projects and classifies them by grade of novelty and types of innovative products to be created. The classification features allow us to identify the categories of tangible innovative products and innovative technologies. The article contains the main challenges in evaluating, forecasting and managing innovative projects in the risk environment. An innovative project is considered as a complex of possible implementations, i.e. as a random function. The investors’ goal is to determine the most likely outcome of project implementation for making further decisions.

  10. Relationship Between Driving-violation Behaviours and Risk Perception in Motorcycle Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy S.K. Cheng

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: This study could assist occupational-therapy practitioners involved in driving rehabilitation and training to identify strategies to deal with drivers' violation behaviours and risk perception. It could also provide evidence-based recommendations for drivers' education, driving-safety campaigns, or even licensing policies.

  11. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  12. Characteristics and risk factors of cerebrovascular accidents after percutaneous coronary interventions in patients with history of stroke

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hua; FENG Li-qun; BI Qi; WANG Yu-ping

    2010-01-01

    Background Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a well-established method for managing coronary diseases.However, the increasing use of PCI has led to an increased incidence of acute cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) related to PCI. In this study, we investigated the characteristics and risk factors of CVA after PCI in patients with known stroke history.Methods Between January 1, 2005 and March 1, 2009, 621 patients with a history of stroke underwent a total of 665 PCI procedures and were included in this retrospective study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, previous medications, procedures, neurologic deficits, location of lesion and in-hospital clinical outcomes of patients who developed a CVA after the cardiac catheterization laboratory visit and before discharge were reviewed.Results Acute CVA was diagnosed in 53 (8.5%) patients during the operation or the perioperative pedod. Seventeen patients suffered from transient ischemic attack, thirty-four patients suffered from cerebral infarction and two patients suffered from cerebral hemorrhage. The risk factors for CVA after PCI in stroke patients were: admission with an acute coronary syndrome, use of an intra-aortic balloon pump, urgent or emergency procedures, diabetes mellitus, and poor left ventricular systolic function, arterial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and no/irregular use of anti-platelet medications.Conclusions The incidence of CVA during and after PCI in patients with history of stroke is much higher than that in patients without history of stroke. Patients with atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus,dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and no or irregular use of anti-platelet medications were at higher risk for recurrent stroke.This study showed a strong association between acute coronary syndromes and in-hospital stroke after PCI.

  13. Characteristics and risk factors of cerebrovascular accidents after percutaneous coronary interventions in patients with history of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua; Feng, Li-qun; Bi, Qi; Wang, Yu-ping

    2010-06-01

    Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a well-established method for managing coronary diseases. However, the increasing use of PCI has led to an increased incidence of acute cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) related to PCI. In this study, we investigated the characteristics and risk factors of CVA after PCI in patients with known stroke history. Between January 1, 2005 and March 1, 2009, 621 patients with a history of stroke underwent a total of 665 PCI procedures and were included in this retrospective study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, previous medications, procedures, neurologic deficits, location of lesion and in-hospital clinical outcomes of patients who developed a CVA after the cardiac catheterization laboratory visit and before discharge were reviewed. Acute CVA was diagnosed in 53 (8.5%) patients during the operation or the perioperative period. Seventeen patients suffered from transient ischemic attack, thirty-four patients suffered from cerebral infarction and two patients suffered from cerebral hemorrhage. The risk factors for CVA after PCI in stroke patients were: admission with an acute coronary syndrome, use of an intra-aortic balloon pump, urgent or emergency procedures, diabetes mellitus, and poor left ventricular systolic function, arterial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and no/irregular use of anti-platelet medications. The incidence of CVA during and after PCI in patients with history of stroke is much higher than that in patients without history of stroke. Patients with atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and no or irregular use of anti-platelet medications were at higher risk for recurrent stroke. This study showed a strong association between acute coronary syndromes and in-hospital stroke after PCI.

  14. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome as an accident risk factor in professional drivers in Yekaterinburg. Dangerous Sleep (DS-1 study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Belkin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available About 20% of all road traffic accidents may be associated with falling asleep while driving. This may be caused by sleep disorders leading to daytime sleepiness, the most common of which is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS. Objective: to study somatic and mental health, sleep disorders, OSAS in particular, in the population of Russian drivers (Sverdlovsk Region. Patients and methods. The descriptive cohort «Dangerous Sleep» (DS-1 study of 20 professional drivers having more than 5-year driving experience was conducted at the Clinical Institute of the Brain. The mean age of the drivers was 45.8 years. They underwent somatic evaluation for cardiovascular risk factors and a psychological examination involving a risk readiness diagnostic procedure, the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and an electroencephalographic examination. A somnological examination assumed testing using the Epworth sleepiness scale, polysomnography, or overnight pulse metry. Results and discussion. 30% of the drivers were found to have marked attention disorders and an inability to adapt to extreme conditions, which create a risk for professional duties. The predisposing factors were noted to be alcohol addiction, overweight, and OSAS, the rate of the latter proved to be higher than that in the general population of able-bodied men. It was shown that a somnological examination should be obligatorily performed while hiring professional drivers, particularly to long hauliers. The drivers having a long length of experience, in whom a periodic examination detects sleep disorders, should be treated for somatic diseases and should also have individual working schedules to rule out their long night-time driving. 

  15. Paragliding accidents--the spine is at risk. A study from a Swiss Trauma Centre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exadaktylos, A K; Sclabas, G; Eggli, S; Schönfeld, H; Gygax, E; Zimmermann, H

    2003-03-01

    In recent decades, paragliding-like other fashionable activities-has become a part of lifestyle and outdoor activities. The introduction of protective devices has helped to reduce the risk of severe injuries. However, it seems that the spine remains the paraglider's 'Achilles heel'. Better education, training, and the introduction of innovative back protectors are required to reduce the frequency and severity of paragliding injuries.

  16. Risk-Based Pricing and Risk-Reducing Effort: Does the Private Insurance Market Reduce Environmental Accidents?

    OpenAIRE

    Haitao Yin; Howard Kunreuther; Matthew White

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines whether risk-based pricing promotes risk-reducing effort. Such mechanisms are common in private insurance markets, but are rarely incorporated in government assurance programs. We analyze accidental underground fuel tank leaks--a source of environmental damage to water supplies--over a fourteen-year period, using disaggregate (facility-level) data and policy variation in financing the cleanup of tank leaks over time. The data suggest that eliminating a state-level governme...

  17. COMPARING SAFE VS. AT-RISK BEHAVIORAL DATA TO PREDICT ACCIDENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2001-11-01

    The Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR) program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other’s behaviors. One purpose for performing these observations is that it gives the observers the opportunity to correct, if needed, their co-worker’s at-risk work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of doing this is that major injuries (e.g., OSHA-recordable events) are prevented from occurring because the lower level at-risk behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted unsafe behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. However, unlike other observation programs, SOAR also emphasizes positive reinforcement for safe behaviors observed. The underlying premise of doing this is that positive reinforcement of safe behaviors helps establish a strong positive safety culture. Since the SOAR program collects both safe and at-risk leading indicator data, this provides a unique opportunity to assess and compare the two kinds of data in terms of their ability to predict future adverse safety events. This paper describes the results of analyses performed on SOAR data to assess their relative predictive ability. Implications are discussed.

  18. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. For nine out of ten rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106%. For 72% of rail projects, forecasts are overestimated by more than two-thirds. For 50% of road projects...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  19. Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Sitakanta [Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi (India); Ahmed, Mansoor [Quaid-i-Azam Univ., Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2014-04-01

    In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

  20. Somatic symptoms in women 11 years after the Chornobyl accident: prevalence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromet, Evelyn J; Gluzman, Semyon; Schwartz, Joseph E; Goldgaber, Dmitry

    2002-08-01

    Exposure to the Chornobyl nuclear power plant explosion resulted in widespread, persistent somatic complaints, but little is known about the nature and risk factors for these conditions. This study compares the health reports of 300 women evacuated to Kyiv from the contamination zone around the plant and 300 controls with a child in the same homeroom as the evacuees in 1997. The interview addressed somatic concerns, risk factors for poor health, and Chornobyl-related stress. Compared with controls, evacuees reported significantly more health problems and rated their health more poorly overall. These differences remained significant after controlling for demographic and clinical risk factors, including the tendency to amplify physical symptoms. Significantly more evacuees received a diagnosis of a Chornobyl-related illness by a local physician, believed that their health and their children's health had been adversely affected, and were positive for Chornobyl-induced post-traumatic stress disorder. After controlling for these Chornobyl stress variables, the differences in number of health problems commonly attributed to Chornobyl remained significant but differences in general health ratings did not. The perceptions of controls were similar to those of women in a national sample. The relationship between Chornobyl stress and illness was twice as strong in evacuees (odds ratio = 6.95) as in Kyiv controls (odds ratio = 3.34) and weakest in the national sample (odds ratio = 1.64). The results confirm the persistence and nonspecificity of the subjective medical consequences of Chornobyl and are consistent with the hypothesis that traumatic events exert their greatest negative impacts on health in vulnerable or disadvantaged groups.

  1. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  2. Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayman, W M; Males, R M

    2002-01-01

    An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

  3. MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY AMONG EMERGENCY WORKERS OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: ASSESSMENT OF RADIATION RISKS FOR THE FOLLOW-UP PERIOD OF 1992-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Ivanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Morbidity and mortality among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow- up period of 199Morbidity and mortality among the emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident for the follow-up period of 1992-2008 is analyzed in the article. The cohort consists of 47141 emergency workers of 1986-1987. Radiation risks for cancer morbidity (ERR/Gy is 0.76; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.42, p-value=0008 and cancer mortality (ERR/Gy is 0.95; 95% CI: 0.19; 1.89, p-value=0.01 are statistically significant. Radiation risk for vascular diseases is assessed as well.

  4. 液氯储罐泄漏事故后果评价%Calculation and Evaluation about Aftereffect of Environmental Risk of the Leakage of Chlorine Tank Accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马振英; 张姬; 刘昕松

    2016-01-01

    Environmental risk accident aftereffect of the liquid chlorine tank leakage in a chemical company was calculated and predicted.The environmental effect of liquid chlorine tank leakingwas predicted by means of calculation of the degree of liquid chlorine tank leakage source and the consequences of the acci-dent risk,the lethal concentration range and emergency evacuation radiusconcentration were determined.%针对某化工企业液氯储罐泄漏环境风险事故进行后果计算及预测。通过对液氯储罐泄露源强计算及风险事故后果计算,预测出液氯储罐泄漏事故发生后对周围环境的影响,确定了半致死浓度范围和应急撤离半径。

  5. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance Approach for Wave Energy Converters Taking Weather Forecast Uncertainties into Account

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance costs are significant contributors to the cost of energy for wave energy converters. Maintenance can be performed after failure (corrective) or before a breakdown (preventive) occurs. Furthermore, helicopter and boat can be used to transport equipment and personnel...... to the device for operation and maintenance actions. This article focusses on a risk-based inspection and maintenance planning approach involving minimization of the overall repair costs including costs due to lost electricity production. The study includes real weather data and damage accumulation as well...... as uncertainties related with imperfect weather forecasts, costs, structural damage accumulation, inspection accuracy and the applied maintenance strategies. This article contains a case study where the risk-based maintenance strategy is applied for the Wavestar device....

  6. How does corruption influence perceptions of the risk of nuclear accidents?: cross-country analysis after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.

    OpenAIRE

    Yamamura, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    Japan’s 2011 natural disasters were accompanied by a devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima. This paper used cross-country data obtained immediately after the Japanese disaster to explore how, and the extent to which, corruption affects the perception of citizens regarding the risk of nuclear accidents. Endogeneity bias was controlled for using instrumental variables. The cross-country analysis showed that citizens in less corrupt countries tend to perceive there to be a lower possibility ...

  7. Study of large oil storage tank zone fire risk forecast and early warning technology%大型石油储罐区火灾风险预测预警技术研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘晅亚; 张清林; 秘义行; 许晓元

    2012-01-01

    According to the characteristics of the large-scale storage working equipments and process in large oil storage tank zone, based on the analysis of key equipments' leakages, fires, explosion and other disaster scenes and accident evolution model in the tank areas, the effect factors of the tanks area fire risk and fire & explosion accidents hazards were studied through the statistics and analysis of the typical petroleum tank zone fire accidents cases. Depending on the characteristics of different typical fire and explosion accidents scenarios, using the information technologies (GIS geographic information system, RS remote sensing and telemetry systems, etc. ) and remote singles moni-tor technologies, the large-scale oil storage tank area fire risk forecasting and early warning technology system were proposed. The status parameters of dangerous materials and process equipments can be carried out with real time measurement and monitoring. It can be realized to intergrade the fire risk dynamic analysis and evaluation, detection and monitoring, disasters prediction and early warning, including system dynamic decision-making, comprehensive coordination, emergency response, by which to improve the fire fighting forces prevention and control of large oil storage tank fire, disaster forecast and early warning signs, and level of technical capacity in order to achieve the dynamic security management of the storage tank area fire risk.%针对目前我国大型石油储罐区储运工艺特点与作业条件,通过对典型石油储罐区火灾事故案例的统计与分析,在对罐区关键设备与工艺设施泄漏、火灾、爆炸特性以及事散场景与灾害演化模式分析的基础上,对石油储运罐区火灾风险影响因素以及罐区火灾、爆炸事故危险性进行研究.根据典型的火灾、爆炸事故场景特点,基于信息技术(GIS地理信息系统、RS遥感遥测系统等)与远程信号动态监测技术,提出大型石油储罐区

  8. Road accident fatality risks for "vulnerable" versus "protected" road users in northern Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damsere-Derry, James; Palk, Gavan; King, Mark

    2017-10-03

    Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a serious epidemic that claims more than a million lives across the globe each year. The burden of RTIs is particularly pronounced in Africa and other low- and middle-income countries. The unfavorable disparity of the burden of road trauma in the world is largely attributable to unsafe vehicles, lack of appropriate road infrastructure, and the predominance of vulnerable road users (VRUs) in developing countries. However, little research exists in northern Ghana to highlight the scale and risk of death among road users. The objective of this research was to establish the relative risk of death among road users in northern Ghana. Crash data from police reports between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed for the Upper Regions of Ghana. Conditional probabilities and multivariable logistic regression techniques were used to report proportions and adjusted odds ratios (AORs), respectively. Generally, crashes in northern Ghana were extremely severe; that is, 35% of all injury related collisions were fatal. The proportion of fatal casualties ranged between 21% among victims of sideswipe collisions and 41% among pedestrians and victims of rear-end collisions. Though males were 6 times more likely to die than females overall, females were more likely to die as pedestrians (90% of all female casualty deaths) and males were more likely to die as riders/drivers (78% of all male casualty deaths). Pedestrians were 3 times more likely to die (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4 to 4.1) compared with drivers/riders. Compared with drivers, the odds of death among cyclists was about 4 times higher (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI, 2.3 to 5.6) and about 2 times higher among motorcyclists (AOR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.2). Compared with casualties aged between 30 and 59 years, children under 10 years and those aged 60 years and above were independently 2 times more likely to die in traffic collisions. Provision of requisite road infrastructure is vital

  9. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%.

  10. Reconciling nuclear risk: The impact of the Fukushima accident on comparative preferences for nuclear power in UK electricity generation

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, C.; Elgueta, H.; Eiser, J.

    2015-01-01

    Polls conducted in the United Kingdom following the Fukushima nuclear accident (March 2011) indicated a fairly muted and temporary shift in public approval of nuclear power. This study investigated how: (a) comparative preferences for nuclear power in the U nited Kingdom might have been affected by the accident; and (b) how “supporters” of nuclear power reconciled their pro-nuclear attitude in the wake of the disaster. Between-subjects comparisons with a pre-Fukushima sample revealed our post...

  11. Operational river ice forecasting on the Peace River : managing flood risk and hydropower production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jasek, M. [BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC (Canada); Friensenhan, E. [Alberta Environment, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Granson, W. [Alberta Environment, Peace River, AB (Canada)

    2007-07-01

    This paper described the procedures used jointly by Alberta Environment and BC Hydro to manage the water flows on the Peace River. The Alberta-British Columbia Joint Task Force on Peace River Ice (JTF) was concerned with the coordination of break-up ice observations along the river as well as ice jam flooding at the Town of Peace River (TPR), resulting from an induced dynamic break-up on the Smoky River, a main tributary of the Peace River. The TPR is the largest community that can be most affected by ice jams on river. As such, river ice processes on the river are monitored and subject to operational procedures of the JTF. These operating procedures are organized into 3 separate sequential phases, notably freeze-up procedures, mid-winter procedures, and break-up procedures. In April 2007, the ice break-up season on the Peace River and Smoky River, was particularly challenging as record high snow cover led to a dynamic break-up of these two streams. Costs due to reduced hydropower production were documented. This paper highlighted the main decision points for mitigation and presented the recommendations that improve mitigation efforts with benefits to both the flood prone community and the power utility. This paper revealed that forecasting the start of control flow by predicting the arrival of the ice front using the Comprehensive River Ice Simulation System Project (CRISSP) model was largely successful. Further work is underway to define the accuracy of forecasting the start of control flow using CRISSP, as accuracy of temperature forecasts appears to be the major uncertainty. The JTF was able to make successful recommendations for flow reductions. However, the need for an accurate hydrologic model for the Smoky River as well as other inflows between Peace Canyon and the TPR was emphasized. 4 refs., 31 figs.

  12. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  13. Factores de riesgo de accidentes en la edad geriátrica Risk factors for accidents in geriatric age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manolo Gómez Juanola

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Se realizó un estudio prospectivo, longitudinal y descriptivo con elementos analíticos, para evaluar los factores de riesgo de accidentes en los ancianos, durante el período de julio 2000 a junio 2001. La muestra quedó conformada por un universo de 101 gerontes, de los consultorios médicos 13 y 32, del municipio Mantua. Se aplicó el cálculo porcentual y X2 con nivel de ajuste ed a = 0,01 y a = 0,05. Dentro de los factores ambientales, en el área urbana predominaron: piso del baño deslizante (pA prospective, longitudinal and descriptive study was conducted with analytical elements to evaluate the risk factors for accidents in the elderly from July 2000 to June 2001.The sample was composed of 101 aged individuals from the family physicians' offices 13 and 32, in Mantua municipality. The percentage calculation and X2 with a level of adjustment of a = 0.01 and a = 0.05 were applied. The following environmental factors predominated in the urban area: slipping bathroom floor (p 0.01, cooker of an inadequate height (p 0.05, polished floors, changing furniture, propping, filtrations and inadequate shoes (p 0.01. Lamp or switch away from the bed, bathroom away from the bedroom and absence of shower curtains, unlevel/irregular floor, furniture in bad state, deficient lighting, poorly protected electrical sources and circulation of pets (p 0.01 prevailed in the rural area. The most common physiological risks were: pluripathology/polypharmacy and degenerative arthropathy as a cause of balance alterations and walking, respectively. They prevailed in females (p 0.05. Congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease and cervical osteoarthritits predominated among the most frequent diseases in the females (p 0.05. 43.5 % of the males took only one drug. Sedatives (50-59 % were the most used drugs. 59.40 % of the elderly were evaluated as low risk for accidentality.

  14. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  15. An overview of health forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  16. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  18. Application of MODIS GPP to Forecast Risk of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Based on Fluctuations in Reservoir Population Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, R.; Heinsch, F. A.; Mills, J. N.; Wagoner, K.; Running, S.

    2003-12-01

    Recent predictive models for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) have used remotely sensed spectral reflectance data to characterize risk areas with limited success. We present an alternative method using gross primary production (GPP) from the MODIS sensor to estimate the effects of biomass accumulation on population density of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse), the principal reservoir species for Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of diagnosed HPS cases in North America are attributed to SNV, which is transmitted to humans through inhalation of excretions and secretions from infected rodents. A logistic model framework is used to evaluate MODIS GPP, temperature, and precipitation as predictors of P. maniculatus density at established trapping sites across the western United States. Rodent populations are estimated using monthly minimum number alive (MNA) data for 2000 through 2002. Both local meteorological data from nearby weather stations and 1.25 degree x 1 degree gridded data from the NASA DAO were used in the regression model to determine the spatial sensitivity of the response. MODIS eight-day GPP data (1-km resolution) were acquired and binned to monthly average and monthly sum GPP for 3km x 3km grids surrounding each rodent trapping site. The use of MODIS GPP to forecast HPS risk may result in a marked improvement over past reflectance-based risk area characterizations. The MODIS GPP product provides a vegetation dynamics estimate that is unique to disease models, and targets the fundamental ecological processes responsible for increased rodent density and amplified disease risk.

  19. Specific complex of non-radiation risk factors for socially significant pathologies could affect the liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koterov A.N.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The review considers the complex of non-radiation factors that could affect the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: the demographic, social and professional group heterogeneity to warrant differentiation of risk, the effects of heavy metals, 'hot particles', chemicals, psychogenic stress, social dislocation in the post-perestroika period, alcohol abuse, smoking, and the effect of screening. All these factors tend to have a significant intensity, unlike the radiation exposure for the majority of subjects. It is concluded that the increased frequency and severity of some large socially significant pathologies in contingent liquidators may be due to a unique set of predominantly non-radiation factors associated, however, with a particular radiation accident.

  20. Age-related risk factors with nonfatal traffic accidents in urban areas in Maringá, Paraná, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo, Willian Augusto; Alarcão, Ana Carolina Jacinto; de Oliveira, Analice Paula Rocha; Pelloso, Sandra Marisa; Carvalho, Maria Dalva de Barros

    2017-02-17

    The present study aimed to analyze the factors associated with the occurrence of nonfatal traffic accidents regarding age. A retrospective, transversal, and analytical study was carried out in the municipality of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, based on data from Boletins de Ocorrência de Acidente de Trânsito ("Police Occurrence Bulletins"; BOATs). Following probability sampling, the sociodemographic aspects, logistics, environmental conditions, and time of occurrence of 418 cases of accidents were analyzed. The age of the victims was considered to be the dependent variable. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and bivariate, multivariate, and variance analysis, considering a confidence interval of 95% and a significance level of 5% (P accidents (P accidents were being single, having over 8 years of education, having had a driver's license for less than 3 years, roads with low luminosity, and driving at night. Demographic, environmental, and logistical factors were associated with morbidity due to traffic accidents among young people. These results challenge society and policy makers to create more effective strategies to minimize this serious public health problem.

  1. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors.

  2. ALICE Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The ALICE (point 2) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for ALICE are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the ALICE vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  3. LHCb Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The LHCb (point 8) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for LHCb are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the LHCb vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  4. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goto, Junichi [NUMO, Tokyo (Japan); Kawamura, Hideki [Obayashi Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Chapman, Neil [MCM Consulting, Baden (Switzerland)

    2013-07-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  5. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  6. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  7. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  8. Chornobyl Accident and Iodine Deficiency as Risk Factors of Thyroid Pathology in Population of the Affected Regions of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.I. Кravchenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The result of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident was the negative effect of radiation on the health of population of large areas of Ukraine and surrounding countries, the impact of this action will be shown over the years. Studies conducted in the 2011–2014 in Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions showed that iodine deficiency in the diet of the population in these areas remains and has a negative effect on the health of residents exposed to Chornobyl accident factors. Solution of the problem of iodine deficiency disorders prevention lies in the aspect of the adoption of legislation relating to the mass and group iodine prophylaxis.

  9. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  10. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendices VII, VIII, IX, and X. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the release of radioactivity in reactor accidents; physical processes in reactor meltdown accidents; safety design rationale for nuclear power plants; and design adequacy.

  11. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tao

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  12. A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Gaspare; Fragola, Joseph R.

    1999-01-01

    The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability

  13. Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust

  14. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  15. 基于极值理论的煤矿事故风险分析%Risk Analysis of Coal Mine Accidents Based on Extreme Value Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘浪; 费明虎

    2012-01-01

    According to the statistics of monthly dead personnel data from coal mine accident in our recent ten years, we can draw a conclusion that, given different confidence level of mining accident, there is the maximum loss value of different risks, namely the big- gest potential accident death toll in each month based on the extreme value theory, which provides a theoretical guidance for the management of safety production in coal mine field.%运用极值理论,根据我国近十余年煤矿事故中每月死亡人员的统计数据,分别得出了在不同置信水平下,我国煤矿事故中的最大风险损失值,即未来事故中每月最大的潜在死亡人数,从而为我国开展煤矿安全生产管理工作提供理论指导。

  16. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intraday Range

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.W.S. Chen (Cathy); R. Gerlach (Richard); B.B.K. Hwang (Bruce); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractValue-at-Risk (VaR) is commonly used for financial risk measurement. It has recently become even more important, especially during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We propose some novel nonlinear threshold conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViar) models that incorporate intra-day pric

  17. RADIATION RISKS ASSESSMENT DUE TO CONSUMPTION OF THE FAR EAST FOOD FISH AFTER THE ACCIDENT ON “FUKUSHIMA-1” NPP

    OpenAIRE

    G. G. Onishсhenko; V. S. Repin; I. K. Romanovich

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents a review of the data on radioactivity releases to thePacific Oceanlevels after the Fukushima NPP accident. It is shown that the potential risk of of the seafood contamination with the long-living radionuclides 134Cs and 137Cs, which continue to be released to the Pacific Ocean up to the present time. Contribution of 90Sr to the total radioactive contamination does not exceed 3%. Review of the literature data on the modeling of radioactivity spot diffusion showed that due to...

  18. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents.

  19. Forecasting credit card portfolio losses in the Great Recession: a study in model risk

    OpenAIRE

    Canals-Cerda, Jose J.; Kerr, Sougata

    2014-01-01

    Credit card portfolios represent a significant component of the balance sheets of the largest US banks. The charge‐off rate in this asset class increased drastically during the Great Recession. The recent economic downturn offers a unique opportunity to analyze the performance of credit risk models applied to credit card portfolios under conditions of economic stress. Specifically, we evaluate three potential sources of model risk: model specification, sample selection, and stress scenario se...

  20. Computational intelligence applications to option pricing, volatility forecasting and value at risk

    CERN Document Server

    Mostafa, Fahed; Chang, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    The results in this book demonstrate the power of neural networks in learning complex behavior from the underlying financial time series data . The results in this book also demonstrate how neural networks can successfully be applied to volatility modeling, option pricings, and value at risk modeling. These features allow them to be applied to market risk problems to overcome classical issues associated with statistical models. .

  1. Forecasting Electricity Market Risk Using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD—Based Multiscale Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The electricity market has experienced an increasing level of deregulation and reform over the years. There is an increasing level of electricity price fluctuation, uncertainty, and risk exposure in the marketplace. Traditional risk measurement models based on the homogeneous and efficient market assumption no longer suffice, facing the increasing level of accuracy and reliability requirements. In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-based Value at Risk (VaR model to estimate the downside risk measure in the electricity market. The proposed model investigates and models the inherent multiscale market risk structure. The EMD model is introduced to decompose the electricity time series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF with distinct multiscale characteristics. The Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA model is used to model the individual risk factors across different scales. Experimental results using different models in the Australian electricity markets show that EMD-EWMA models based on Student’s t distribution achieves the best performance, and outperforms the benchmark EWMA model significantly in terms of model reliability and predictive accuracy.

  2. Forecasting and risk management in Tlemcen: Legislation and urban master plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walid Hamma

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Tlemcen suffered several disasters since the country's independence in 1962. Some disasters come back every year such as floods, pollution, landslides and forest fires. This city has experienced four urban master plans which are those of 1960, 1966, 1977 and 1998. They have not achieved their objectives to prevent and manage the risks facing the city. Dice then, we have questioned the conformity of the city to the legal framework of prevention and risk management, the involvement of urban master plans to generate risks, and the application on the ground of proposals of struggle against risks. To answer these questions, we first checked the compliance of urban configuration of the city to the legislation, especially respect for urban servitudes, the removal of hazardous activities from urban fabrics, and the projection of safe accommodation area in the event of disasters. Then we have detected out the urban orientations that have caused risks. Finally, we calculated the rate of implementation of the proposals of each plan. It turns out that the regulation is not respected, some proposals have created risks where 46617 constructions are threatened and actions are not completed, since the four plans were implemented at 78.57%, 0%, 88.88% and 4.76%.

  3. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  4. Research and application on risk assessment method of major accidents in coal mine%煤矿重大事故风险评价方法的研究与应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹庆贵; 王以功

    2012-01-01

    本文研究提出了煤矿重大事故——瓦斯煤尘爆炸事故、矿井火灾事故和矿井水灾事故——风险评价方法,采用指数法进行煤矿重大事故风险评价,设计了“煤矿水灾事故危险性评价表”和“瓦斯煤尘爆炸与火灾事故危险性评价表”,提出了煤矿重大事故风险评价的方法步骤,研制了B/S模式的配套应用软件系统,在煤矿企业局域网上开展重大事故风险评价,以及风险预警、安全对策优选等工作.研究成果在协庄煤矿应用,取得了良好的社会效益.%This paper put forward the risk assessment method of major accidents in coal mine,such as gas and coal dust explosion accidents,fire accidents and flood accidents,conducted risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine by using the method of index evaluation,designed "the risk assessment table of flood accidents in coal mine" and "the risk assessment table of gas and coal dust explosion accidents and fire accidents in coal mine", presented the methods and steps of the risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine,and developed the matching software system based on B/S model in order to conduct the work such as risk assessment on major accidents in coal mine, early warning of risk and optimization of safety countermeasures on the LAN of coal mining enterprises. The research results have been applied in Xiezhuang Coal Mine successfully,and have achieved good social benefits.

  5. Predictions and social risk perception. The flawed forecasts about the Spanish public pensions crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Francescutti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate in Spain about the Welfare State sustainability is fuelled by recurrent catastrophic predictions about the future of public pensions. In this paper a set of such predictions made in the mid-1990s is analyzed. In retrospect, their accuracy is evaluated in relation to the historical evolution of the Spanish public finance. In the same way, the real dimension of pensions risks is assessed. Moreover, their methodology, aims and the recommendations made by their authors are discussed. The results shed light on the influence of these predictions upon risk perception of financial collapse of Social Security, on their reflexive effects as well as on their impact on the process of definition of risks.

  6. Foreign Exchange Rate Futures Trends: Foreign Exchange Risk or Systematic Forecasting Errors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The forward exchange rate is widely used in international finance whenever the analysis of the expected depreciation is needed. It is also used to identify currency risk premium. The difference between the spot rate and the forward rate is supposed to be a predictor of the future movements of the spot rate. This prediction is hardly precise. The fact that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot rate can be attributed to a currency risk premium. The bias can also be attributed to systematic errors of the future depreciation of the currency. This paper analyzes the nature of the risk premium and of the prediction errors in using the forward rate. It will look into the efficiency and rationality of the futures market in Brazil from April 1995 to December 1998, a period of controled exchange rates.

  7. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakleaf, James R; Kennedy, Christina M; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  8. Asthma is a risk factor for acute chest syndrome and cerebral vascular accidents in children with sickle cell disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Paul J

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Asthma and sickle cell disease are common conditions that both may result in pulmonary complications. We hypothesized that children with sickle cell disease with concomitant asthma have an increased incidence of vaso-occlusive crises that are complicated by episodes of acute chest syndrome. Methods A 5-year retrospective chart analysis was performed investigating 48 children ages 3–18 years with asthma and sickle cell disease and 48 children with sickle cell disease alone. Children were matched for age, gender, and type of sickle cell defect. Hospital admissions were recorded for acute chest syndrome, cerebral vascular accident, vaso-occlusive pain crises, and blood transfusions (total, exchange and chronic. Mann-Whitney test and Chi square analysis were used to assess differences between the groups. Results Children with sickle cell disease and asthma had significantly more episodes of acute chest syndrome (p = 0.03 and cerebral vascular accidents (p = 0.05 compared to children with sickle cell disease without asthma. As expected, these children received more total blood transfusions (p = 0.01 and chronic transfusions (p = 0.04. Admissions for vasoocclusive pain crises and exchange transfusions were not statistically different between cases and controls. SS disease is more severe than SC disease. Conclusions Children with concomitant asthma and sickle cell disease have increased episodes of acute chest syndrome, cerebral vascular accidents and the need for blood transfusions. Whether aggressive asthma therapy can reduce these complications in this subset of children is unknown and requires further studies.

  9. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  10. ASSESSMENT OF RELIABILITY AND RISK DEGREE FOR ACCIDENT INITIATION AT SLIME STORAGES OF 4th MINING ADMINISTRATION, JSC “BELARUSKALI”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Bohaslauchyk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of reliability for dams of slime storage embankment is given on the basis of reliability theory and characteristics of reliability and their analysis are presented in the paper. The paper specifies qualitative indices for earth dams which are subdivided in two groups: applicability factors and structural reliability factors. A short analysis of all possible causes for accident initiation at earth dams has been made and the analysis has permitted to pinpoint eleven main objects for diagnosis for slime storage dams. In order to assess risk degree of accident initiation at JSC “Belaruskali” slime storages all possible causes of emergency cases and their probability of occurrence have been analyzed in the paper. The paper acknowledges the fact that dam malfunction is possible, as a rule, due to violation of operational rules and regulations. Main parameters of slime storage state which are to be controlled regularly in the process of its operation have been noted in the paper. Observation results over slime storages, calculations of dam slope stability for normal operation (a principal calculation case and operating irregularities in water seals (a special calculation case. As a stability margin factor is close to 1.0 for a special calculation case, an extreme position of depression curve has been determined for all design sections. It has been recommended to carry out a constant control over its position, and in the case when it reaches its peak value it is necessary to undertake appropriate measures in order to reduce its value. Final expert estimations on probability of accident initiation at the investigated slime storage dams of the 4th Mining Administration, JSC “Belaruskali” have been prepared on the basis of the analysis comprising all the required factors. A conclusion has been made about low risk degree of their destruction.

  11. ACCURATE FORECAST AS AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE THE ECONOMIC RISK OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kymratova A. M.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the ways of reducing the financial, economic and social risks on the basis of an accurate prediction. We study the importance of natural time series of winter wheat yield, minimum winter, winter-spring daily temperatures. The feature of the time series of this class is disobeying a normal distribution, there is no visible trend

  12. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Document Server

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  13. Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

    2016-04-01

    Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R Oakleaf

    Full Text Available A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2 and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.

  1. On robust forecasting of autoregressive time series under censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Kharin, Y.; Badziahin, I.

    2009-01-01

    Problems of robust statistical forecasting are considered for autoregressive time series observed under distortions generated by interval censoring. Three types of robust forecasting statistics are developed; meansquare risk is evaluated for the developed forecasting statistics. Numerical results are given.

  2. On robust forecasting of autoregressive time series under censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Kharin, Y.; Badziahin, I.

    2009-01-01

    Problems of robust statistical forecasting are considered for autoregressive time series observed under distortions generated by interval censoring. Three types of robust forecasting statistics are developed; meansquare risk is evaluated for the developed forecasting statistics. Numerical results are given.

  3. Risk Analysis of Security Accident Management in Chemical Enterprises%化工企业的安全事故管理隐患的探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    康钦利

    2014-01-01

    本文从化工企业目前存在的安全管理隐患入手,阐述了其企业自身可能引发安全责任事故发生的人为隐患、物的隐患与管理上的隐患等,并给出了化工企业潜在安全管理隐患的定性与定量判识方法;并针对化工企业的行业特殊性,提出了排查、治理安全管理环节所存在的各种隐患的解决措施和相应的安全对策。%Some risks which may lead security responsibility accident including anthropogenic risks , physical risks and management risks , etc.were described , and some qualitative and quantitative diagnostic methods about potential security risk management were listed , according to the existing security management in chemical enterprises.Many solutions and appropriate measures were proposed for a variety of risks existed in the investigation , control work , etc.and for the chemical industry enterprises particularity.

  4. RADIATION RISKS ASSESSMENT DUE TO CONSUMPTION OF THE FAR EAST FOOD FISH AFTER THE ACCIDENT ON “FUKUSHIMA-1” NPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishсhenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a review of the data on radioactivity releases to thePacific Oceanlevels after the Fukushima NPP accident. It is shown that the potential risk of of the seafood contamination with the long-living radionuclides 134Cs and 137Cs, which continue to be released to the Pacific Ocean up to the present time. Contribution of 90Sr to the total radioactive contamination does not exceed 3%. Review of the literature data on the modeling of radioactivity spot diffusion showed that due to the flows in the Pacific Ocean the radioactivity transfer toKamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and the ingress into theOkhotskSeawas expected in 2014. It is expected a slight increase of the cesium concentration in water and sea biota in the area of Russia fishing zone FAO 61, but not higher than the concentrations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea after the Chernobyl accident. Data on measurements of the pollution of fish caught in the Pacific Ocean,JapanandOkhotskSeasin 2011–2014 years during the sea expeditions organized by the Russian Geographical Society, yet showed that the total content of cesium isotopes in any fish sample have not eceeded the value of 0.7 Bq/kg. The prognose risk assessment carried out for the conservative scenario of water contamination in fishing zones ofRussiaand seafood consumption characteristic for the region showed that this risk is minimal according to the WHO scale and does not exceed the risk from fish caughed in Black Sea and Baltic Sea, contaminated after theChernobylaccident, consumption. 

  5. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  6. Nuclear Accident, Public Attitude and Risk Communication%核事故、公众态度与风险沟通

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田愉; 胡志强

    2012-01-01

    日本福岛核事故发生后,世界各地公众反对核电的呼声增高,这对未来各国制定核电政策将会产生重大影响。综合近年来有关欧美国家公众核电态度状况的调查结果,总结了核事故与公众态度之间的关系的三个特征:核事故的发生是影响公众核电风险认知的重要因素;公众对核电的态度会随着时间的推移有所改变;良好的风险沟通是积极影响公众对核电态度的重要举措。%After the Fukushima accident in Japan, the world's public oppositions to nuclear power are increasing, which affects the world's fu-ture nuclear policy. In recent years, the surveys about public attitudes to nuclear power in Europe and the United States demonstrate the three characters that nuclear accidents related to public attitude, which are: the nuclear accident is the major factor to influence public attitudes to nu- clear power; the attitude of public will change with the passage of tirne; good risk communication is an important positive policy that influences public attitudes to nuclear power.

  7. Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Podobnik, B; Curme, C; Qiao, Z; Zhou, W -X; Stanley, H E; Li, B

    2014-01-01

    In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{\\ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks.

  8. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  9. [Amphetamine use by truck drivers on highways of Sao Paulo State: a risk for the occurrence of traffic accidents?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takitane, Juliana; de Oliveira, Lucio Garcia; Endo, Ligia Góes; de Oliveira, Keziah Cristina Barbosa Gruber; Muñoz, Daniel Romero; Yonamine, Mauricio; Leyton, Vilma

    2013-05-01

    The use of amphetamines in Brazil is common among truck drivers, which may be an important factor in the occurrence of traffic accidents. This article seeks to estimate the prevalence of amphetamine use among truck drivers. Drivers (N = 134) were stopped on two different highways in Sao Paulo state and they were asked to answer a questionnaire and provide a urine sample for toxicological analysis. All data were analyzed on Stata 8.0. All participants were males with low levels of schooling, whose mean age was 40.8 years. The presence of amphetamines was detected in 10.8% of all urine samples collected, being commonly justified in order to make truck drivers able to maintain their state of awareness. Amphetamine use was detected among truck drivers on Sao Paulo highways. The problem is that when the stimulant effects wear off, sleepiness due to sleep deprivation reduces concentration and good driver performance, making drivers vulnerable to traffic accidents and the related effects.

  10. Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

  11. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry.

  12. Quantification of the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish boiling water reactors. A scoping study performed for the APRI project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T.; Dinh, T.N.; Bui, V.A.; Sehgal, B.R. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Systems Technology

    1995-07-01

    Results of a scoping study to quantify the ex-vessel severe accident risks for the Swedish BWRs are reported. The study considers that a pool of water is established in the containment prior to vessel failure, as prescribed by the accident management scheme for the newer Swedish BWRs. The integrated methodology developed and employed combines probabilistic and deterministic treatment of the various melt-structure-water interaction processes occurring in sequence. The potential steam explosion, and the melt attack on the containment basemat, are treated with enveloping analyses. Uncertain parameters in the models and the initial conditions are treated with Monte Carlo simulations. Independent models are developed for melt coolability and possible attack on the concrete basemat. It is found that, with current models, the melt discharge scenarios, in which a large amount of accumulated melt may be released from the vessel, could subject the containment to large steam explosion loads. However, the uncertainties are so large that no definite conclusion can be drawn. The assessment of ex-vessel core debris coolability is disturbed by similar phenomenological uncertainties. Presently, coolability of the core debris can not be demonstrated. 133 refs.

  13. Risks of pedestrian serious injuries and fatalities associated with impact velocities of cars in car-versus-pedestrian accidents in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko; Ando, Kenichi

    2013-11-01

    The first purpose of this study is to clarify the relation between the car impact velocity and pedestrian injury severity or mortality risk. We investigated the frequency of serious injuries and fatalities of pedestrians using vehicle-pedestrian accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, minivans, and box vans (ordinary automobiles) and light passenger cars and light cargo vans (light automobiles). The results revealed that a 10-km/h reduction in impact velocity could mitigate severe pedestrian injuries in cases involving impact velocities of 40 km/h or more for the five vehicle types analyzed. Specifically, if the impact velocity was 30 km/h or less, the frequency of serious injuries was less than 27% and the frequency of fatalities was less than 5% for the five vehicle types. Therefore, if the collision damage mitigation braking system (CDMBS) that uses a sensor to detect pedestrians can effectively reduce the impact velocity for various vehicle types, pedestrian injuries will be greatly mitigated. The second purpose of this study is to identify the factors that affect injury risk. Impact experiments were conducted in which a sedan impacted against a pedestrian full-scale dummy at 40 km/h and a pedestrian headform impactor was impacted against a road surface. The results indicated that the risk of pedestrian serious injury was significantly affected by multiple impact conditions, such as the pedestrian height, car impact velocity, car frontal shape, and car stiffness in cases where the car impacted the pedestrian's head, the degrees of influence of which were driven by the vehicle impact velocity.

  14. Current research and development activities on fission products and hydrogen risk after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Nishimura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP accident, new regulatory requirements were enforced in July 2013 and a backfit was required for all existing nuclear power plants. It is required to take measures to prevent severe accidents and mitigate their radiological consequences. The Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R has been conducting numerical studies and experimental studies on relevant severe accident phenomena and countermeasures. This article highlights fission product (FP release and hydrogen risk as two major areas. Relevant activities in the S/NRA/R are briefly introduced, as follows: 1. For FP release: Identifying the source terms and leak mechanisms is a key issue from the viewpoint of understanding the progression of accident phenomena and planning effective countermeasures that take into account vulnerabilities of containment under severe accident conditions. To resolve these issues, the activities focus on wet well venting, pool scrubbing, iodine chemistry (in-vessel and ex-vessel, containment failure mode, and treatment of radioactive liquid effluent. 2. For hydrogen risk: because of three incidents of hydrogen explosion in reactor buildings, a comprehensive reinforcement of the hydrogen risk management has been a high priority topic. Therefore, the activities in evaluation methods focus on hydrogen generation, hydrogen distribution, and hydrogen combustion.

  15. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  16. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  17. Optimized electricity expansions with external costs internalized and risk of severe accidents as a new criterion in the decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin del Campo M, C.; Estrada S, G. J., E-mail: cmcm@fi-b.unam.mx [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, 62550 Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    The external cost of severe accidents was incorporated as a new element for the assessment of energy technologies in the expansion plans of the Mexican electric generating system. Optimizations of the electric expansions were made by internalizing the external cost into the objective function of the WASP-IV model as a variable cost, and these expansions were compared with the expansion plans that did not internalize them. Average external costs reported by the Extern E Project were used for each type of technology and were added to the variable component of operation and maintenance cost in the study cases in which the externalises were internalized. Special attention was paid to study the convenience of including nuclear energy in the generating mix. The comparative assessment of six expansion plans was made by means of the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis (PVMRA) decision analysis tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider internal costs, economical impact associated with incremental fuel prices, diversity, external costs, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and external costs of severe accidents. A set of data for the calculation of the last criterion was obtained from a Report of the European Commission. We found that with the external costs included in the optimization process of WASP-IV, better electric expansion plans, with lower total (internal + external) generating costs, were found. On the other hand, the plans which included the participation of nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not. (Author)

  18. The effect of a yellow bicycle jacket on cyclist accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lahrmann, Harry; Madsen, Tanja Kidholm Osmann; Olesen, Anne Vingaard

    2017-01-01

    Highlights •A randomised controlled trial with 6793 cyclists shows a reduced accident risk due to a yellow bicycle jacket. •The test group had 47% fewer multiparty accidents with personal injury. •The test group had 55% fewer multiparty accidents against motorised vehicles.......Highlights •A randomised controlled trial with 6793 cyclists shows a reduced accident risk due to a yellow bicycle jacket. •The test group had 47% fewer multiparty accidents with personal injury. •The test group had 55% fewer multiparty accidents against motorised vehicles....

  19. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  20. PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovica Jovanovic

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical services, physicians and nurses play an essential role in the plant safety program through primary treatment of injured workers and by helping to identify workplace hazards. The physician and nurse should participate in the worksite investigations to identify specific hazard or stresses potentially causing the occupational accidents and injuries and in planning the subsequent hazard control program. Physicians and nurses must work closely and cooperatively with supervisors to ensure the prompt reporting and treatment of all work related health and safety problems. Occupational accidents, work related injuries and fatalities result from multiple causes, affect different segments of the working population, and occur in a myriad of occupations and industrial settings. Multiple factors and risks contribute to traumatic injuries, such as hazardous exposures, workplace and process design, work organization and environment, economics, and other social factors. With such a diversity of theories, it will not be difficult to understand that there does not exist one single theory that is considered right or correct and is universally accepted. These theories are nonetheless necessary, but not sufficient, for developing a frame of reference for understanding accident occurrences. Prevention strategies are also varied, and multiple strategies may be applicable to many settings, including engineering controls, protective equipment and technologies, management commitment to and investment in safety, regulatory controls, and education and training. Research needs are thus broad, and the development and application of interventions involve many disciplines and organizations.

  1. ANALYSIS OF MEDIA PUBLICATIONS ON THE FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Zykova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of informing the public about radiation and radiation risks is made on the basiс of publications on the Fukushima nuclear accident after the earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011, by five newspapers and the official internet sites of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-being and the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. The analysis of the data suggests that the population is satisfied with its request in timely, clear, and reliable information on the radiation situation, protective measures and forecast of the situation development in the future. The possibility to learn about different viewpoints positively affects the mood of readers and reduces their anxiety. However, it should be recognized that, if the information have been provided by a single media only, the population would not have adequate understanding of the situation related to the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

  2. Occupational blood exposure accidents in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, P.T.L. van; Schneeberger, P.M.; Heimeriks, K.; Boland, G.J.; Karagiannis, I.; Geraedts, J.; Ruijs, W.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To make proper evaluation of prevention policies possible, data on the incidence and associated medical costs of occupational blood exposure accidents in the Netherlands are needed. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of blood exposure accidents and risk estimates for occupational groups. Cost

  3. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  4. Assessing Traffic Accident Occurrence of Road Segments through an Optimized Decision Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for estimating the safety status of transportation facilities have received great attention in the last two decades. These models also perform an important role in transportation safety planning as well as diagnoses of locations with high accident risks. However, the current methods largely rely on regression analyses and therefore they could ignore the multicollinearity characteristics of factors, which may provide additional information for enhancing the performance of forecasting models. This study seeks to develop more precise models for forecasting safety status as well as addressing the issue of multicollinearity of dataset. The proposed mathematical approach is indeed a discriminant analysis with respect to the goal of minimizing Bayes risks given multivariate distributions of factors. Based on this model, numerical analyses also perform with the application of a simulated dataset and an empirically observed dataset of traffic accidents in road segments. These examples essentially illustrate the process of Bayes risk minimization on predicating the safety status of road segments toward the objective of smallest misclassification rate. The paper finally concludes with a discussion of this methodology and several important avenues for future studies are also provided.

  5. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  6. Halka Açık Olmayan Şirketlerde Sistematik Risk Ölçütü Beta Katsayısının Tahmin Edilmesi(Forecasting Systematic Risk Measure Beta Coefficient For Private Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa KIRLI

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic risk being insensitive to portfolio diversification affects all financial markets and all financial assets operated in these markets.Systematic risk measure beta coefficient shows the sensitivity of the securities’ returns to variations in the market return.Beta coefficient is forecasted by using regression model.For publicly traded firms, we know the historical market datas,thus there is no difficulty for estimating beta coefficients of these firms.On the other hand,private companies do not have a market price history.Consequently there are difficulties for estimating beta coefficients of private companies.In this study,to forecast beta coefficients for private firms,three models or approaches are suggested and with details analysed.These models or approaches are accounting betas,fundamental betas and comparable publicly traded firms betas.

  7. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L

    2000-12-15

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  8. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS WITH OIL ON RAILWAY TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Zelenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The principles of estimation of losses to the environment components caused by the emergency spills of petroleum products and the methodical approaches to estimation of ecological risk of functioning of railways are offered.

  9. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  10. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  11. Thyroid exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian children due to the Chernobyl accident and resulting thyroid cancer risk. Final report of BfS project StSch 4240

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R.; Ulanovski, A.; Schotola, C.; Proehl, G. [GSF-Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany); Kenigsberg, J.; Buglova, E.; Kruk, J. [Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology, Minsk (Belarus); Likhtarev, I.; Kovgan, L.; Vavilov, S.; Chepurniy, M. [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Inst., Kyiv (Ukraine); Tronko, M.; Bogdanova, T. [Institute of Endocrinolgoy and Metabolism of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv (Ukraine); Shinkarev, S.; Gavrilin, Y. [All-Russian Public Organization of Invalids ' Chernobylets' , Scientific Center ' FENIX' , Moscow (Russian Federation); Demidchik, Y. [Thyroid Cancer Center, Minsk (Belarus)

    2005-07-01

    Main objectives of the BfS Project StSch4240 Thyroid Exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian Children due to the Chernobyl Accident and Resulting Thyroid Cancer Risk were: to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian settlements, in which more than 10 measurements of the {sup 131}I activity in the human thyroid have been performed in May/June 1986, to explore, whether this dosimetric database can be extended to neighboring settlements, to establish improved estimates of average thyroid dose for both genders and for each birth-year cohort of the period 1968 - 1985 in Ukrainian and Belarusian oblasts (regions) and larger cities, to document the thyroid cancer incidence for the period 1986 - 2001 in Ukraine and Belarus and describe morphological characteristics of the cancer cases, to assess the contribution of the baseline incidence to the total thyroid cancer incidence in the two countries and identify regional and temporal dependencies, to perform analyses of excess risks in settlements with more than 10 measurements of the {sup 131}I activity in the human thyroid. The project has been conducted in the period 6 December 1999 to 31 March 2004. (orig.)

  12. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  13. [Fatal electric arc accidents due to high voltage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, Hansjürg; Wirth, Ingo

    2004-01-01

    The frequency of electric arc accidents has been successfully reduced owing to preventive measures taken by the professional association. However, the risk of accidents has continued to exist in private setting. Three fatal electric arc accidents caused by high voltage are reported with reference to the autopsy findings.

  14. Effects Of Country Risk Forecasts Based On Foreign Trade Performance And Currency Choices In Asset - Liability Management On Banks’ Liquidity Performance: An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Muzır

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available he foremost purpose of this paper that presents some parametric and non-parametric model proposals towards measuring banks’ risk of technical insolvency (failure as based on their liquidity performance is to discern how specific choices regarding asset- liability structure of banks and country risk predictions concerning overall foreign trade performance affect liquidity position of those banks. Moreover, possible impacts of lending efficiency and capital adequacy on liquidity performance are argued. For this purpose, some parametric and non-parametric risk estimation models have been developed using the consolidated financial and non-financial data that were reported on a quarterly basis by 26 Turkish and foreign deposit banks within the period between March 2003 and March 2009 to predict changes in the balances of both net cash flows from banking activities and overall net cash flows. According to the findings of the models developed by undertaking Binary Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS, it is concluded that foreign trade performance based country risk forecasts are positively correlated with technical failure risk exposure while currency compositions of assets and liabilities are significantly effective on risk level. In addition, we also observe that foreign banks are relatively less exposed to technical failure risk and infer that increasing lending efficiency and better capital adequacy could lead to pretty liquidity performance, as expected

  15. Development and Validation of an Infection Risk Model for Bacterial Canker of Kiwifruit, Using a Multiplication and Dispersal Concept for Forecasting Bacterial Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford, R M; Tyson, J L; Henshall, W R

    2017-02-01

    A weather-based disease prediction model for bacterial canker of kiwifruit (known worldwide as Psa; Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae biovar 3) was developed using a new mechanistic scheme for bacterial disease forecasters, the multiplication and dispersal concept. Bacterial multiplication is estimated from a temperature function, the M index, accumulated from hourly air temperature over 3 days for hours when the leaf canopy is wet. Rainfall provides free water to move inoculum to infection sites, and the daily risk indicator, the R index, is the 3-day accumulation of the M index output on days with total rainfall >1 mm; otherwise, R is zero. The model was field-tested using potted kiwifruit trap plants exposed for discrete periods in infected kiwifruit orchards to identify when leaf infection occurred. In a 9-week study during spring, the R index predicted leaf-spot intensity with high accuracy (R(2) = 93%) and, in an 82-week seasonal accuracy study, prediction of infection incidence was most accurate from spring to late summer and lower during other times. To implement the risk model for the New Zealand kiwifruit industry, a modified risk index, R', used relative humidity (RH) >81% instead of wetness, so that 2- and 6-day weather forecasts of RH could be used. Risk index values were affected by the shape of the temperature function and an alternative 'low temperature' function for the M index was identified that could be used in climates in which high temperatures are known to limit Psa development during some parts of the year. This study has shown how infection risk for bacterial diseases can be conceptualized as separate processes for temperature-dependent bacterial multiplication and rain-dependent dispersal and infection. This concept has potentially wide application for bacterial disease prediction in the same way that the infection monocycle concept has had for fungal disease prediction.

  16. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. Operational monitoring and forecasting of bathing water quality through exploiting satellite Earth observation and models: The AlgaRisk demonstration service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shutler, J. D.; Warren, M. A.; Miller, P. I.; Barciela, R.; Mahdon, R.; Land, P. E.; Edwards, K.; Wither, A.; Jonas, P.; Murdoch, N.; Roast, S. D.; Clements, O.; Kurekin, A.

    2015-04-01

    Coastal zones and shelf-seas are important for tourism, commercial fishing and aquaculture. As a result the importance of good water quality within these regions to support life is recognised worldwide and a number of international directives for monitoring them now exist. This paper describes the AlgaRisk water quality monitoring demonstration service that was developed and operated for the UK Environment Agency in response to the microbiological monitoring needs within the revised European Union Bathing Waters Directive. The AlgaRisk approach used satellite Earth observation to provide a near-real time monitoring of microbiological water quality and a series of nested operational models (atmospheric and hydrodynamic-ecosystem) provided a forecast capability. For the period of the demonstration service (2008-2013) all monitoring and forecast datasets were processed in near-real time on a daily basis and disseminated through a dedicated web portal, with extracted data automatically emailed to agency staff. Near-real time data processing was achieved using a series of supercomputers and an Open Grid approach. The novel web portal and java-based viewer enabled users to visualise and interrogate current and historical data. The system description, the algorithms employed and example results focussing on a case study of an incidence of the harmful algal bloom Karenia mikimotoi are presented. Recommendations and the potential exploitation of web services for future water quality monitoring services are discussed.

  19. Assessing Efficiency of D-Vine Copula ARMA-GARCH Method in Value at Risk Forecasting: Evidence from PSE Listed Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Klepáč

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out the possibilities of using static D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model for estimation of 1 day ahead market Value at Risk. For the illustration we use data of the four companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange in range from 2010 to 2014. Vine copula approach allows us to construct high-dimensional copula from both elliptical and Archimedean bivariate copulas, i.e. multivariate probability distribution, created from process innovations. Due to a deeper shortage of existing domestic results or comparison studies with advanced volatility governed VaR forecasts we backtested D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model against the VaR rolling out of sample forecast from October 2012 to April 2014 of chosen benchmark models, e.g. multivariate VAR-GO-GARCH, VAR-DCC-GARCH and univariate ARMA-GARCH type models. Common backtesting via Kupiec and Christoffersen procedures offer generalization that technological superiority of model supports accuracy only in case of an univariate modeling – working with non-basic GARCH models and innovations with leptokurtic distributions. Multivariate VAR governed type models and static Copula Vines performed in stated backtesting comparison worse than selected univariate ARMA-GARCH, i.e. it have overestimated the level of actual market risk, probably due to hardly tractable time-varying dependence structure.

  20. Occupational Accidents with Agricultural Machinery in Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogler, Robert; Quendler, Elisabeth; Boxberger, Josef

    2016-01-01

    The number of recognized accidents with fatalities during agricultural and forestry work, despite better technology and coordinated prevention and trainings, is still very high in Austria. The accident scenarios in which people are injured are very different on farms. The common causes of accidents in agriculture and forestry are the loss of control of machine, means of transport or handling equipment, hand-held tool, and object or animal, followed by slipping, stumbling and falling, breakage, bursting, splitting, slipping, fall, and collapse of material agent. In the literature, a number of studies of general (machine- and animal-related accidents) and specific (machine-related accidents) agricultural and forestry accident situations can be found that refer to different databases. From the database Data of the Austrian Workers Compensation Board (AUVA) about occupational accidents with different agricultural machinery over the period 2008-2010 in Austria, main characteristics of the accident, the victim, and the employer as well as variables on causes and circumstances by frequency and contexts of parameters were statistically analyzed by employing the chi-square test and odds ratio. The aim of the study was to determine the information content and quality of the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) variables to evaluate safety gaps and risks as well as the accidental man-machine interaction.

  1. Bathtub immersion accidents involving children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearn, J; Nixon, J

    1977-02-12

    A review of 19 consecutive serious bathtub immersion accidents (11 survivals, 8 fatalities) is presented. In all instances, consciousness was lost in the water. Unlike other childhood accidents which usually show a male predominance, the sexes are equally affected. The modal age is 11 months. Six separate causes of bath drownings and near-drownings have been identified, and in 14 of the 19 accidents, two or more causes were operating concurrently. Median estimated immersion time for survivals was four minutes, and five minutes for fatalities. The median depth of water was eight inches. An 'at risk' profile for home bathtub drownings is presented; this includes the youngest or second youngest child of a large family, a family of grade 4 to 7 sociooccupational status (congalton) and a family in which routine is temporarily broken.

  2. Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.; Spiekerman, G.; Cazzoli, E.; Vitazek, J.; Cheng, L

    2003-03-01

    This report deals with the comparative assessment of accidents risks characteristic for the various electricity supply options. A reasonably complete picture of the wide spectrum of health, environmental and economic effects associated with various energy systems can only be obtained by considering damages due to normal operation as well as due to accidents. The focus of the present work is on severe accidents, as these are considered controversial. By severe accidents we understand potential or actual accidents that represent a significant risk to people, property and the environment and may lead to large consequences. (author)

  3. Risk-informed regulation and safety management of nuclear power plants--on the prevention of severe accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himanen, Risto; Julin, Ari; Jänkälä, Kalle; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Virolainen, Reino

    2012-11-01

    There are four operating nuclear power plant (NPP) units in Finland. The Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) power company has two 840 MWe BWR units supplied by Asea-Atom at the Olkiluoto site. The Fortum corporation (formerly IVO) has two 500 MWe VVER 440/213 units at the Loviisa site. In addition, a 1600 MWe European Pressurized Water Reactor supplied by AREVA NP (formerly the Framatome ANP--Siemens AG Consortium) is under construction at the Olkiluoto site. Recently, the Finnish Parliament ratified the government Decision in Principle that the utilities' applications to build two new NPP units are in line with the total good of the society. The Finnish utilities, Fenno power company, and TVO company are in progress of qualifying the type of the new nuclear builds. In Finland, risk-informed applications are formally integrated in the regulatory process of NPPs that are already in the early design phase and these are to run through the construction and operation phases all through the entire plant service time. A plant-specific full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is required for each NPP. PRAs shall cover internal events, area events (fires, floods), and external events such as harsh weather conditions and seismic events in all operating modes. Special attention is devoted to the use of various risk-informed PRA applications in the licensing of Olkiluoto 3 NPP.

  4. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  5. Hazards Forecasting and Weights Determination during Operation and Maintenance of Petrol Fuel Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Ahmed

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Petrol Fuel Stations (PFS is the most commonly available hazardous facility within urban and rural areas. Hazardous materials such as petrol, diesel, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG and kerosene oil normally sell and stores at PFS. PFS can be considered as small refinery within the city. A 3.5 year study conducted and 3216 non-compliances were recorded from PFS located in various cities of Pakistan. The operating company was ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 certified. The recorded non-compliances during study period were categorized into 8 potential factors. These were Housekeeping (HK, Transportation Hazard (TH, Slips, Trips and Falls (STF, Carelessness (C, Fire Risks (FR, Electrical Fault (EF, Miscellaneous Cases (MC and Medical Treatment Cases (MTC. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP was used and categorized 8 factors were prioritized. The same data was further classified based upon to cause fatality, accident, incident and near miss cases. A total numbers of 14, 426, 975 and 1804, fatality, accident, incident and near miss cases were recorded. With application of Exponential Smoothing method the fatalities, accident, incident and near miss cases for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013 were forecasted. The results of AHP and forecasted hazards will be presented and discussed in this study. It is hope that the both approaches will assist health and safety professionals for future hazards predictions and hazards weights determinations. Health and safety practitioners can take remedial and preventative measures by using past data with utilization of proposed techniques.

  6. DATA ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND THEIR CAUSES IN GOMEL FOR 2013 AND 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Azemsha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Measures undertaken for improvement of road traffic safety presuppose clampdown on violation of road traffic regulations but no attention is paid to the fact that there is no possibility to ensure road traffic safety due to inconformity of roads to the modern safety requirements. Therefore reduction in accident rate is connected with some changes in approaches to designing, construction and maintenance of roads. Nowadays when the number of automobiles is extremely large and their number is increasing with every passing year driver’s professionalism becomes the most significant factor. In these circumstances the professionalism is demonstrated not so much while driving in bad road conditions as it was previously but the professionalism is more revealed in the case when it is necessary to drive in conditions of large workloads and high manoeuvring rate when a special important role is given to the capability to forecast a situation, in other words the capability to read the road. Moral climate on the road is no less important as well and it practically fully depends on a driver.The paper contains an analysis of the Gomel traffic police data on quantitative distribution of road traffic accidents and their victims according to the time of day and month, lighting conditions, weather conditions, age and sex factors, types of violations. Situations of traffic behavior, motivations of drivers and road users, drivers training have been shown in terms of impact on the road traffic accident risk. The paper considers a human factor which rather often causes an accident. An evaluation has been given to such factor as road speed of transport facilities which exerts a significant influence on an accident risk and its severity.

  7. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  8. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  9. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  10. SMAD3 rs17228212 gene polymorphism is associated with reduced risk to cerebrovascular accidents and subclinical atherosclerosis in anti-CCP negative Spanish rheumatoid arthritis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes García-Bermúdez

    Full Text Available Rheumatoid arthritis (RA is a complex polygenic inflammatory disease associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and increased risk of cardiovascular (CV disease. Previous genome-wide association studies have described SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism as an important signal associated with CV events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate for the first time the relationship between this gene polymorphism and the susceptibility to CV manifestations and its potential association with the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by the evaluation of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT in patients with RA.One thousand eight hundred and ninety-seven patients fulfilling classification criteria for RA were genotyped for SMAD3 rs17228212 gene polymorphism through TaqMan genotyping assay. Also, subclinical atherosclerosis determined by the assessment of cIMT was analyzed in a subgroup of these patients by carotid ultrasonography.No statistically significant differences were observed when allele frequencies of RA patients with or without CV events were compared. Nevertheless, when RA patients were stratified according to anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP status, we found that in RA patients who were negative for anti-CCP antibodies, the presence of C allele of SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism conferred a protective effect against the risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA after adjustment for demographic and classic CV risk factors (HR [95%CI]=0.36 [0.14-0.94], p=0.038 in a Cox regression model. Additionally, correlation between the presence of C allele of SMAD3 rs17228212 polymorphism and lower values of cIMT was found after adjustment for demographic and classic CV risk factors (p-value=0.0094 in the anti-CCP negative RA patients.Our results revealed that SMAD3 rs17228212 gene variant is associated with lower risk of CVA and less severe subclinical atherosclerosis in RA patients negative for anti-CCP antibodies. These findings may have

  11. Watchful Waiting in Continuous-Flow Left Ventricular Assist Device Patients With Ongoing Hemolysis Is Associated With an Increased Risk for Cerebrovascular Accident or Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Allison P; Saeed, Omar; Willey, Joshua Z; Levin, Charles J; Fried, Justin A; Patel, Snehal R; Sims, Daniel B; Nguyen, Jenni D; Shin, Julia J; Topkara, Veli K; Colombo, Paolo C; Goldstein, Daniel J; Naka, Yoshifumi; Takayama, Hiroo; Uriel, Nir; Jorde, Ulrich P

    2016-05-01

    Management of hemolysis in the setting of suspected device thrombosis in continuous-flow left ventricular assist device patients varies widely, ranging from watchful waiting with intensified antithrombotic therapy to early surgical device exchange. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of hemolysis events treated with surgical interventions versus medical management alone. A retrospective review of Heartmate II continuous-flow left ventricular assist device patients at 2 centers from January 2009 to September 2014 was completed. Patients were categorized as surgical management if hemolysis refractory to intensification of standard antithrombotic therapy was treated surgically. The primary end point was the first occurrence of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) or death. Sixty-four hemolysis events occurred in 49/367 patients implanted with Heartmate II continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices. Of 49 primary hemolysis events, 24 were treated with surgical interventions. After surgical treatment, 1 patient died and 2 experienced CVAs, as compared with 3 deaths and 9 CVAs in the 25 patients who remained on intensified antithrombotic therapy alone. The 1-year freedom from CVA or death was 87.5% and 49.5% in the surgical and medical cohorts, respectively (P=0.027). Resolution of a primary hemolysis event without CVA or death occurred in 21/24 patients treated with surgical interventions and in 13/25 who remained on medical therapy alone. A similar association between treatment and outcome was noted in the 15 recurrent hemolysis events. Hemolysis refractory to intensification of antithrombotic therapy identifies continuous-flow left ventricular assist device patients at major risk for CVA and death. Early device exchange should be considered to minimize these risks. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  12. Process business risk: a methodology for assessing and mitigating the financial impact of process plant accidents; Avaliacao de risco ao negocio devido a acidentes de processo em plantas industriais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Ana Cristina C.; Bardy, Mariana B. [Det Norske Veritas (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Traditional risk management has focused on effects on people, particularly when using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). A much broader approach is being adopted nowadays, with companies beginning to consider potential accidental losses in their decision making process. This paper describes a study where business risks from major accident hazards were assessed for a large petrochemical plant. The results are presented as F-Cost curves, which are similar to traditional F-N curves, but represent cumulative frequencies of events versus their cost, instead of fatalities. A different variety of costs can be evaluated as property damage, business interruption, inventory loss, environmental loss, clean-up costs, legal costs, fatality and injury costs, amongst others. As final objective of the study insurance values can be adjusted as well as decisions on reducing risk can be made based on the actual benefit, considering the reduction of losses and the amount to be spent on mitigating major risks. Also, values for civil liability insurance can be reviewed, based on the hazards that can result in fatalities and injuries, as well as property losses, for third parties. This paper presents the results of a study which involved the evaluation of the company's civil liability. The key driver was to consider a more accurate value for the company insurance policy, considering the different losses that major accident can lead on for a community and industries located nearby a petrochemical plant. The results of the analysis are presented as F-Cost curves and we describe the risk-based decision making process and criteria adopted by the company to set the maximum loss value to be insured for civil liability. In conclusion, this paper presents results from a real life example of the application of the quantitative evaluation of business risks, illustrating that a financial or business risk approach can help management in day-to-day decisions when considering possible effects of

  13. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  14. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  15. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  16. Structural model of risk factors for safety accidents in coal mine based on CA-SEM%基于 CA -SEM 的煤矿安全事故风险因素结构模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪刘凯; 孟祥瑞; 何叶荣; 王向前; 李慧宗

    2015-01-01

    围绕煤矿安全风险管理的内涵,通过因子分析和层次聚类分析,识别煤矿安全事故风险主要包含人因风险、管理风险、信息风险、环境风险和设备风险5个风险因素层的22项风险因子。以人因风险层的6个风险因素为内源潜变量,其他4个风险层的16个风险因素为外源潜变量,构建煤矿安全事故风险因素的CA-SEM模型。运用SPASS17.0和AMOS7.0剖析各风险因素层以及各风险因子对煤矿安全事故风险的综合影响及其作用机理,从而为实现煤矿本质化安全提供决策依据。%Centering on the connotation of risk management for coal mine safety, through factor analysis and hierar-chical clustering analysis, the risk of safety accidents in coal mine was identified, which included 22 risk factors in 5 risk factor levels such as human factor risk, management risk, information risk, environment risk and equipment risk.Taking the 6 risk factors in human factor risk level as endogenous latent variable and the 16 risk factors in oth-er 4 levels as exogenous latent variables, a CA-SEM model of risk factors for safety accidents in coal mine was es-tablished.The comprehensive influence and effect mechanism of each risk factor level and each risk factor on risk of safety accidents in coal mine were analyzed by using SPASS17 .0 and AMOS7 .0 , so as to provide decision basis for realizing the essence safety of coal mine.

  17. Towards Sustaining Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Forecasting Watershed Risks to Current and Future Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, K. A.; Newburn, D.; Opperman, J. J.; Brooks, C.; Merenlender, A.

    2005-05-01

    Sustaining aquatic resources requires managing existing threats and anticipating future impacts. Resource managers and planners often have limited understanding of the relative effects of human activities on stream conditions and how these effects will change over time. Here we assess and forecast the relative impacts of land use on sediment concentrations in Mediterranean-climate watersheds in California. We focus on the Russian River basin, which supports threatened salmonid populations vulnerable to high levels of fine sediment. We ask the following questions: (1) What are the relative impacts of three different land uses (urban, exurban and agriculture) on the patterns of fine sediment in streams? (2) What is the relative contribution of past and current changes in land use activities on these patterns? and (3) What are the effects of future development on these sediment levels? First, we characterized land use at the parcel scale to calibrate the relative impacts of exurban and urban land use on stream substrate quality, characterized by the concentration of fine sediment surrounding spawning gravels (`embeddedness') in 105 stream reaches. Second, we built multiple ordinal logistic regression models on a subset of watersheds (n=64) and then evaluated substrate quality predictions against observed data from another set of watersheds (n=41). Finally, we coupled these models with spatially explicit land use change models to project future stream conditions and associated uncertainties under different development scenarios for the year 2010. We found that the percent of urban housing and agriculture were significant predictors of in-stream embeddedness. Model results from parcel-level land use data indicated that changes in development were better predictors of fine sediment than total development in a single time period. In addition, our results indicate that exurban development is an important threat to stream systems; increases in the percent of total exurban

  18. Incidence and mortality of solid cancer among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up period of 1992-2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashcheev, V.V.; Chekin, S.Yu.; Maksioutov, M.A.; Tumanov, K.A.; Kochergina, E.V.; Kashcheeva, P.V.; Shchukina, N.V.; Ivanov, V.K. [Russian Ministry of Health, Federal State Institution, Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk, Kaluga Region (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-15

    This paper presents the results of a retrospective cohort study of cancer incidence and mortality among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident, for the follow-up period 1992-2009. The cohort selected for analysis consists of 67,568 emergency workers who worked in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in 1986-1987. External radiation whole-body absorbed dose varied from 0.0001 gray (Gy) to 1.24 Gy, with a median of 0.102 Gy. Over the follow-up period 1992-2009, a total of 4,002 solid cancers of different sites were identified as the result of annual compulsory health examination, and a total of 2,442 deaths from all solid cancers in the study cohort were reported. Poisson regression was applied for the analysis of cancer incidence and mortality. The analysis of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) has shown a statistically significant increase in cancer incidence in the cohort as compared with baseline cancer incidence among males of Russia. The average excess over the entire follow-up period is 18 % [SIR = 1.18, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.15; 1.22]. In contrast, however, no increase in the mortality from all cancers among the emergency workers as compared to the baseline mortality in Russian men was found. Values of excess relative risk of cancer incidence and mortality per 1 Gy (ERR Gy{sup -1}) are 0.47 (95 % CI 0.03; 0.96, p value = 0.034) and 0.58 (95 % CI 0.002; 1.25, p value = 0.049), respectively. These values are statistically significant. (orig.)

  19. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  20. 河北省致电网事故的气象灾害特征及风险评价%Characteristic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Electrified Wire Netting Accidents Caused by Meteorological Disasters in Hebei Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    付桂琴; 张文宗

    2014-01-01

    利用1983~2008年河北省灾情直报数据,对造成河北电网安全事故的气象灾害进行统计。大风、暴雨、雷电是造成河北省电网安全事故的主要气象灾害,占事故总数的98.5%。致电网安全事故的气象灾害主要出现在夏半年5~9月,且年变化显著。应用气象灾害风险指数方法,对与电网事故有关的气象灾害进行风险评价,分为高、中、低3个风险等级。结果表明:致电网事故的气象灾害高风险区集中在燕山南麓的唐山和太行山东麓北段的保定;中度风险区出现在太行山东麓中南段的邢台、邯郸,还有沿海的沧州地区。中高风险区主要集中在受地形影响局地强对流天气较多的区域,还有沿海多大风的地区。%By using of the disaster data from 1983 to 2008 in Hebei Province,the electrified wire netting accidents related to meteoro-logical disasters were analyzed.The gale,rainstorm as well as thunder and lightning were the mainly meteorological disasters leading to electrified wire netting accidents in Hebei Province,which accounted for 98.5% of the total accidents.These meteorological disasters mainly occurred from May to September,and the yearly change was remarkable.The risk assessment to these meteorological disasters was done by using the risk index method,and it was divided into high risk,moderate risk and low risk grades.Results show that the high risk of meteorological disasters related to electrified wire netting accidents was concentrated in Tangshan and Baoding area,and moderate risk was concentrated in Xingtai,Handan and Cangzhou area.The moderate-high risk occurred in many regions of strong convective weather and multi-gale area in coastal.

  1. The epidemiology of bicyclist's collision accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, L. B.

    1994-01-01

    of bicyclists and risk situations. The findings should make a basis for preventive programmes in order to decrease the number and severity of bicyclists collision accidents. Data from the emergency room in a 2 year period was combined with data from questionnaires. The study group consisted of 1021 bicyclists...... group of accidents were the collisions with the 'soft' road users (bicyclists, mopeds, and pedestrians) and another group were the collisions with the 'hard' road users (motor vehicles, motorcycles). Preventive measures have to be directed at both these groups of accidents. To decrease the number...... of collision accidents with motor vehicles it is necessary to separate the bicyclists from the 'hard road traffic' especially at crossings. Preventive measures must also be directed at the bicyclists. Information must be given to warn the bicyclists against the risks, not only for collisions with motor...

  2. Forecasting Monthly Prices of Japanese Logs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Michinaka

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don, hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc. Endl., and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb. Carr.. For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12- and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases.

  3. Work Accidents and Professional Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doru Hauptmann

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The major accident is defined as “any event occurred, like an emission of dangerous materials or agents, which emerges from uncontrolled evolutions along the exploitation of any objective that leads to the immediate or delayed occurrence of serious dangers with impact over human health or over the environment, inside or outside the objective in which are involved one or more than one dangerous materials”.The dangerous phenomenon is a potential source of harms. In the ambit of industrial risks of accidental origins, this expression more frequently refers to physical phenomena like conflagrations, explosions, toxic gases dispersion, etc.Any accident scenario relates itself to the potential effects at the level of environmental “targets”. In the case of major accidents, we can distinguish the following categories of “targets”: human (employees of the objective, working or resident people in the nearby of the emplacement; the installation or equipments that may stay at the origin of the accidents (dangerous equipments; certain all-important equipments to ensure the safety level of the installation (critical security equipments: control rooms, civil fire brigade headquarters, etc; goods and structures situated in the installation’ environment (ground water, rivers, soil, flora, fauna.

  4. Analysis of explosion accident of refinery oil storage tank fire risk and countermeasures%炼油厂储油罐火灾爆炸事故风险及防范对策分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王凡

    2015-01-01

    There are many kinds of fire and explosion accidents of oil storage tank in the refinery.According to different accidents,the technichs need to analysis their risks and give some prevention countermeasures. In order to guarantee the safety production and reduce the property loss,they also need to standard and manage the various security measures.%炼油厂储油罐发生火灾爆炸事故的种类很多,针对于不同的事故案例,需要进行相应的风险分析,给出防范对策,规范和管理好各种安全措施,消除事故隐患,保障了安全生产,减少财产损失。

  5. An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

    2016-02-01

    On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD.

  6. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Estimated dietary intake of radionuclides and health risks for the citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 nuclear accident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michio Murakami

    Full Text Available The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone, Tokyo (∼230 km, and Osaka (∼580 km after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario. The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1 and 2700 µSv (Case 2 in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2-3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 1.7-37×10-6 (Case 1 and5.6-79×10-6 (Case 2 in Fukushima City, 0.73-13×10-6 in Tokyo, and 0.04-0.49×10- 6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 5.4%-11% of all exposure (Case 1 and 11%-25% (Case 2 in Fukushima City [corrected].

  8. Estimated dietary intake of radionuclides and health risks for the citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2014-01-01

    The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I) and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2-3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 1.7-37×10-6 (Case 1) and5.6-79×10-6 (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.73-13×10-6 in Tokyo, and 0.04-0.49×10- 6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 5.4%-11% of all exposure (Case 1) and 11%-25% (Case 2) in Fukushima City [corrected].

  9. 海南香蕉产业风险及预警对策研究%Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘燕群; 曾小红; 方佳

    2011-01-01

    在概述海南香蕉产业现状的基础上,分析了海南香蕉产业面临的风险,具体包括市场风险、自然灾害、信息风险和生产风险4个方面.为了促进海南香蕉产业持续协调、高速发展,提出了相应的对策:一是加强香蕉产业预警工作的组织领导;二是构建香蕉产业预警机制,具体包括搭建海南香蕉产业预警分级系统、构建香蕉产业信息检测与收集系统、建立信息分析与决策系统以及建设预警信息发布与共享系统4个方面;三是加强香蕉产业应急处置能力建设;四是进一步完善香蕉产业风险防范保障体系;五是加快香蕉标准化生产,提高市场竞争力;六是加快发展中介组织提高产业组织化程度;七是大力开展香蕉创新技术培训,提高香蕉产业科技水平.%Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establish the forecasting mechanisms on banana industry, including four aspects. They are establishing the subordinate forecasting systems on Hainan banana industry; constructing information collecting and checking mechanisms of banana industry; establishing information analysis and decision - making systems and constructing information distribution and information sharing systems. The third is to promote the construction of urgency dealing abilities of banana industry. The fourth is to further perfect the risk - defending and protecting systems of banana industry in Hainan. The fifth is to accelerate the standard generation of banana to improve marketing competence

  10. Is there a connection between car accidents, near accidents, and type A drivers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlberg, L; Undén, A L; Elofsson, S; Krakau, I

    1998-01-01

    The authors examined Type A behavior pattern, which has been investigated primarily as a risk factor for coronary heart disease, as a risk factor for car accidents and near accidents. Type A behavior pattern, which is characterized by excessive impatience, competitiveness, hostility, and time pressure, was assessed by means of the Videotaped Structured Interview. One hundred thirty-five Swedish car drivers (66 men and 69 women) were studied: 78 Type A and 58 Type B (that is, not having, Type A behavior). Time pressure was significantly associated with near accidents when age, sex, annual mileage, and urban driving were controlled in a multivariate model.

  11. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast and alert system applied in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bonelli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Wet snow icing accretion on power lines is a real problem in Italy, causing failures on high and medium voltage power supplies during the cold season. The phenomenon is a process in which many large and local scale variables contribute in a complex way and not completely understood. A numerical weather forecast can be used to select areas where wet snow accretion has an high probability of occurring, but a specific accretion model must also be used to estimate the load of an ice sleeve and its hazard. All the information must be carefully selected and shown to the electric grid operator in order to warn him promptly.

    The authors describe a prototype of forecast and alert system, WOLF (Wet snow Overload aLert and Forecast, developed and applied in Italy. The prototype elaborates the output of a numerical weather prediction model, as temperature, precipitation, wind intensity and direction, to determine the areas of potential risk for the power lines. Then an accretion model computes the ice sleeves' load for different conductor diameters. The highest values are selected and displayed on a WEB-GIS application principally devoted to the electric operator, but also to more expert users. Some experimental field campaigns have been conducted to better parameterize the accretion model. Comparisons between real accidents and forecasted icing conditions are presented and discussed.

  13. Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Sousa Gabrie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

  14. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix XI. Analysis of comments on the draft WASH-1400 report. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning comments on reactor safety by governmental agencies and civilian organizations; reactor safety study methodology; consequence model; probability of accident sequences; and various accident conditions.

  15. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  16. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  17. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  18. Accidents (FARS) (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Accident - (1975-current): This data file (NTAD) contains information about crash characteristics and environmental conditions at the time of the crash. There is one...

  19. Accidente laboral: ACSOM una nueva orientación para gestión automática del riesgo Work accidents: ACSOM a new orientation for automatic risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. García Felipe

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Fundamento. Analizar la accidentalidad laboral en todo tipo de empresas, a través de los riesgos que la provocan, teniendo en cuenta que el objetivo final es establecer una clasificación de riesgos prioritarios. Esta información permite abordar las acciones preventivas oportunas sobre los riesgos más vulnerables. Material y Métodos. Se aplica un conjunto de técnicas estadístico-matemáticas, basadas fundamentalmente en contrastes estadísticos, a los accidentes laborales acaecidos durante tres años, en un organismo de investigación y desarrollo español (I+D con 8.780 trabajadores. Se utiliza como patrón de referencia en este estudio, para un análisis comparativo, el conjunto de accidentes en España durante un periodo de 11 años. Resultados. Tras la aplicación de la nueva metodología, los dos primeros riesgos que requieren acciones preventivas prioritarias son interacción con substancias agresivas y accidentes con maquinaria móvil. Si únicamente se hubieran considerado los dos riesgos con frecuencias más elevadas, sin tener en cuenta la vulnerabilidad de cada uno de ellos, los riesgos prioritarios hubieran sido sobreesfuerzos y caídas al mismo nivel. Conclusiones. El análisis proporciona una relación de los riesgos más vulnerables (puntos débiles, sobre los cuales actuar y de esta forma ser más efectivos a la hora de reducir la accidentalidad.Background. To analyse workplace accidents, by considering the risks that provoke such accidents, bearing in mind that the final aim is to establish a classification of priority risks. This information will make it possible to undertake the opportune preventive actions against the most vulnerable risks. Material and Methods. A set of statistical-mathematical techniques, essentially based on statistical contrasts, was applied to work accidents taking place during a three year period in a Spanish Research and Development (R+D organisation with 8,780 workers. The reference standard

  20. Risk analysis of the liquid ammonia leakage accident in the DeNOx system of themal power plant%火电厂脱硝工程液氨泄漏事故风险分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程民生

    2013-01-01

    结合火电厂脱硝工艺特点与液氨的毒理特性,分析了选择性催化还原烟气脱硝系统液氨的储存与使用可能潜在的生产安全事故风险;计算了设定液氨泄漏场景下的事故后果,用于液氨泄漏事故的预测、预警及应急救援.并结合电厂安全管理特点及存在的问题,从工艺系统监控、液氨储运、应急处置等方面,提出了必要的防范与应急措施建议.%According to the toxicological properties of liquid ammonia and the characteristics of the DeNOx process, the potential accident risk of liquid ammonia storage and use in the SCR flue gas DeNOx system are analyzed. The accident consequences of the set ammonia leakage scenario are calculated for the prediction, early warning and e-mergency rescue of the liquid ammonia leakage accident. Combined with the characteristics of power plant safety management and the existing problems, the necessary suggestion on prevention and emergency measures are put forward from the process system monitoring, liquid ammonia storage, emergency disposal and other aspects.

  1. Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, C.; Keribin, C.; Drobinski, P.; Turquety, S.

    2015-12-01

    In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January-June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a "background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system.

  2. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krbl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kssf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksaw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgck Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcvg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ksun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krow Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbtv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbke Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klnd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kteb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kely Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kfat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. phny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbos Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpdx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. tjsj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpae Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kalb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kjax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kfwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. khts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kslc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ksns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krwf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ksua Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcgi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbyi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kryy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kvtn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...