WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident prediction models

  1. ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR UNSIGNALISED URBAN JUNCTIONS IN GHANA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed SALIFU, MSc., PhD, MIHT, MGhIE

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide an improved method for safety appraisal in Ghana through the development and application of suitable accident prediction models for unsignalised urban junctions. A case study was designed comprising 91 junctions selected from the two most cosmopolitan cities in Ghana. A wide range of traffic and road data together with the corresponding accident data for each junction for the three-year period 1996-1998 was utilized in the model development p...

  2. Contribution to Accident Prediction Models Development for Rural Two-Lane Roads in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Draženko Glavić

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades numerous research efforts have been conducted worldwide to determine the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic and road characteristics. So far, the mentioned studies have not been carried out in Serbia and in the region. This paper represents one of the first attempts to develop accident prediction models in Serbia. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review, describes procedures for collection and analysis of the traffic accident data, as well as the methodology used to develop the accident prediction models. The paper presents models obtained by both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The obtained results are compared to the results of other studies and comparisons are discussed. Finally, the paper presents conclusions and important points for future research. The results of this research can find theoretical as well as practical application.

  3. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  4. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  5. Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1980-05-01

    A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar

  6. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  7. A Model for Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on Driver Personality Traits Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Čubranić-Dobrodolac

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The model proposed in this paper uses four psychological instruments for assessing driver behaviour and personality traits aiming to find a relationship between the considered constructs and the occurrence of traffic accidents. A Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 was used for the assessment of impulsivity, Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ for assessing the aggressiveness while driving, Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ and the Questionnaire for self-assessment of driving ability. Besides these instruments, the participants filled out an extensive demographic survey. Within the statistical analysis, in addition to the descriptive indicators, correlation coefficients were calculated and four hierarchical regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive power of personality traits on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Further, to confirm the results and to obtain additional information about the relationship between the considered variables, the structural equation modelling and binary logistic regression have been implemented. A sample of this research covered 305 drivers, of which there were 100 bus drivers and 102 truck drivers, as well as 103 drivers of privately owned vehicles. The results indicate that BIS-11 and ADBQ questionnaires show the best predictive power which means that impulsivity and aggressiveness as personality traits have the greatest influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. This research could be useful in many fields, such as the design of selection procedures for professional drivers, development of programs for the prevention of traffic accidents and violations of law, rehabilitation of drivers who have been deprived of the driving license, etc.

  8. M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

    2016-11-01

    This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  10. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Erbang; Gao Zhanrong; Zhang Heyuan; Wei Weiqiang

    1996-12-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident has been developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chain but also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused by accident release which will make an impact on radionuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dry and wet deposition interception and initial retention, translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activity intake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intake of human through ingestion pathway are also considered in calculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable are considered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating the contribution of rain with different period and different intensity to total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 main code and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surface of vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable, nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and in animal products and activity intake of human and so on. (24 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs.)

  11. Models and methods for predicting the release of fission products during hypothetical accidents in HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailly, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    The paper deals with experiments, computational models and methods used to describe the fission product transport (diffusion and particle failure) in the fuel elements of a pebble-bed high-temperature module reactor (HTGR Module) during hypothetical accidents. The codes which describe the diffusion of fission products in the fuel elements are e.g. GETTER and FRESCO. PANAMA, IA/KWU failure function and the so called GOODIN models describe the particle failure. All these models may be used in the risk analysis. The experimental results obtained at the Nuclear Research Center Julich, Germany are discussed and compared with the model calculations for these experiments

  12. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  13. Explaining and predicting workplace accidents using data-mining techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, T.; Paz, M.; Martin, J.E.; Matias, J.M.; Garcia, J.F.; Taboada, J.

    2011-01-01

    Current research into workplace risk is mainly conducted using conventional descriptive statistics, which, however, fail to properly identify cause-effect relationships and are unable to construct models that could predict accidents. The authors of the present study modelled incidents and accidents in two companies in the mining and construction sectors in order to identify the most important causes of accidents and develop predictive models. Data-mining techniques (decision rules, Bayesian networks, support vector machines and classification trees) were used to model accident and incident data compiled from the mining and construction sectors and obtained in interviews conducted soon after an incident/accident occurred. The results were compared with those for a classical statistical techniques (logistic regression), revealing the superiority of decision rules, classification trees and Bayesian networks in predicting and identifying the factors underlying accidents/incidents.

  14. Explaining and predicting workplace accidents using data-mining techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivas, T., E-mail: trivas@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Paz, M., E-mail: mpaz.minas@gmail.co [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Martin, J.E., E-mail: jmartin@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Matias, J.M., E-mail: jmmatias@uvigo.e [Dpto. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Garcia, J.F., E-mail: jgarcia@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Taboada, J., E-mail: jtaboada@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain)

    2011-07-15

    Current research into workplace risk is mainly conducted using conventional descriptive statistics, which, however, fail to properly identify cause-effect relationships and are unable to construct models that could predict accidents. The authors of the present study modelled incidents and accidents in two companies in the mining and construction sectors in order to identify the most important causes of accidents and develop predictive models. Data-mining techniques (decision rules, Bayesian networks, support vector machines and classification trees) were used to model accident and incident data compiled from the mining and construction sectors and obtained in interviews conducted soon after an incident/accident occurred. The results were compared with those for a classical statistical techniques (logistic regression), revealing the superiority of decision rules, classification trees and Bayesian networks in predicting and identifying the factors underlying accidents/incidents.

  15. Model to predict radiological consequences of transportation accidents involving dispersal of radioactive material in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of accidental releases of radioactive material which may result from transportation accidents in high-density urban areas is influenced by several urban characteristics which make computer simulation the calculational method of choice. These urban features fall into four categories. Each of these categories contains time- and location-dependent parameters which must be coupled to the actual time and location of the release in the calculation of the anticipated radiological consequences. Due to the large number of dependent parameters a computer model, METRAN, has been developed to quantify these radiological consequences. Rather than attempt to describe an urban area as a single entity, a specific urban area is subdivided into a set of cells of fixed size to permit more detailed characterization. Initially, the study area is subdivided into a set of 2-dimensional cells. A uniform set of time-dependent physical characteristics which describe the land use, population distribution, traffic density, etc., within that cell are then computed from various data sources. The METRAN code incorporates several details of urban areas. A principal limitation of the analysis is the limited availability of accurate information to use as input data. Although the code was originally developed to analyze dispersal of radioactive material, it is currently being evaluated for use in analyzing the effects of dispersal of other hazardous materials in both urban and rural areas

  16. Contribution of mesoscopic modeling for flows prediction in cracked concrete buildings in condition of severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, T.D.

    2010-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis aims at characterising and modeling the mechanical behavior of concrete at the mesoscopic scale. The more general scope of this study is the development of mesoscopic model for concrete; this model is to represent the concrete as a heterogeneous medium, taking into account the difference between aggregate and cement paste respecting the grading curve, the model parameters describe the mechanical and thermal behavior of cement paste and aggregates. We are interested in understanding the concrete behaviour, considered one structure. A program of random granular structure valid in 2D and 3D has been developed. This program is interfaced with the Finite Element code CAST3M in order to compute the numerical simulations. A method for numerical representation of the inclusions of concrete was also developed and validated by projection of the geometry on the shape functions, thus eliminating the problems of meshing that made the representation of all aggregates skeleton almost impossible, particularly in 3D. Firstly, the model is studied in two-dimensional and three-dimensional in order to optimize the geometrical model of the inner structure of concrete in terms of the meshing strategy and the smallest size of the aggregate to be taken into account. The results of the 2D and 3D model are analyzed and compared in the case of uniaxial tension and uniaxial compression. The model used is an isotropic unilateral damage model from Fichant [Fichant et al., 1999]. The model allows to simulate both the macroscopic behavior but also with the local studies of the distribution of crack and crack opening. The model shows interesting results on the transition from diffuse to localized damage and is able to reproduce dilatancy in compression. Finally, the mesoscopic model is applied to three simulations: the calculation of the permeability of cracked concrete; the simulation of the hydration of concrete at early age and finally the scale effect illustrated by bending

  17. Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1996-09-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation is confirmed by further tests at high temperatures as well as by finite element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation is confirmed by finite element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure is developed and validated by tests under varying temperature and pressure loading expected during severe accidents

  18. Updating long-range transport model predictions using real-time monitoring data in case of nuclear accidents with release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, Frank; Tassone, Caterina; Grippa, Gianni; Zarimpas, Nicolas; Graziani, Giovanni

    1991-01-01

    A procedure is developed to reduce the uncertainties of long-range transport model predictions, in case of a large scale nuclear accident. It is based on the availability in 'real time' of the concentrations of airborne radioactive aerosols from automatic on-line monitors, which are presently being installed throughout Europe. Essentially, the procedure consists of: (1) constructing new (area) source terms from the measured field data as they become available; and (2) restart the prediction with these sources, rather than with the original (point) source. The procedure is applied to the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that the procedure is feasible and might result in an improvement of the prediction of the location of the cloud by several hundreds of kilometers and the actual levels with an order of magnitude. The weak point is the treatment of the vertical structure and transport of the cloud, which can only be solved when 'real-time' upper air observations are also available. (author)

  19. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.

    2013-01-01

    the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link......In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...

  20. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

  1. Correspondence model of occupational accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan C. Conte

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents, we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19×19. Through correspondence analysis, we obtained a structure composed of three axes whose combination identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we used as a general Spanish pattern. The most likely or frequent relationships between the risk and injuries identified in the pattern facilitated the decision-making process in companies at an early stage of risk assessment. Each risk-injury group has its own characteristics, which are understandable within the phenomenological framework of the accident. The main advantages of this model are its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting different country results. One limiting factor, however, is the need to set a common classification framework for risks and injuries to enhance comparison, a framework that does not exist today. The model aims to manage work-related accidents automatically at any level.Apresentamos aqui um modelo generalizado para o diagnóstico e predição de acidentes na classe de trabalhadores da Espanha. Baseados em dados sobre a frequência de acidentes em todas as companhias da Espanha em 11 anos (7.519.732 acidentes, nós os classificamos em uma nova tabela de contingência risco-injúria (19×19. Através de uma análise por correspondência obtivemos uma estrutura composta por 3 eixos cuja combinação identifica 3 grupos separados de risco e injúria, que nós usamos como um perfil geral na Espanha. As mais prováveis ou frequentes relações entre risco e injúrias identificadas nesse perfil facilitaram o processo de decisão nas companhias em um estágio inicial de apreciação do risco. Cada grupo de risco-injúria tem suas próprias caracter

  2. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Predicted occurrence rate of severe transportation accidents involving large casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, A.W.

    1978-01-01

    A summary of the results of an investigation of the severities of highway and railroad accidents as they relate to the shipment of large radioactive materials casks is discussed. The accident environments considered are fire, impact, crash, immersion, and puncture. For each of these environments, the accident severities and their predicted frequencies of occurrence are presented. These accident environments are presented in tabular and graphic form to allow the reader to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the accident parameter severities he selects

  4. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  5. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  6. Modeling atmospheric dispersion for reactor accident consequence evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Woodard, K.

    1982-01-01

    Atmospheric dispersion models are a central part of computer codes for the evaluation of potential reactor accident consequences. A variety of ways of treating to varying degrees the many physical processes that can have an impact on the predicted consequences exists. The currently available models are reviewed and their capabilities and limitations, as applied to reactor accident consequence analyses, are discussed

  7. Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hales, Jason Dean [Idaho National Laboratory; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence [Idaho National Laboratory

    2016-05-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether either of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the Advanced

  8. Development of a model to predict flow oscillations in low-flow sodium boiling. [Loss-of-Piping Integrity accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levin, A.E.; Griffith, P.

    1980-04-01

    Tests performed in a small scale water loop showed that voiding oscillations, similar to those observed in sodium, were present in water, as well. An analytical model, appropriate for either sodium or water, was developed and used to describe the water flow behavior. The experimental results indicate that water can be successfully employed as a sodium simulant, and further, that the condensation heat transfer coefficient varies significantly during the growth and collapse of vapor slugs during oscillations. It is this variation, combined with the temperature profile of the unheated zone above the heat source, which determines the oscillatory behavior of the system. The analytical program has produced a model which qualitatively does a good job in predicting the flow behavior in the wake experiment. The amplitude discrepancies are attributable to experimental uncertainties and model inadequacies. Several parameters (heat transfer coefficient, unheated zone temperature profile, mixing between hot and cold fluids during oscillations) are set by the user. Criteria for the comparison of water and sodium experiments have been developed.

  9. Prediction of Transient Scenarios Using AI After Severe Accident Occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

    2017-01-01

    We predicted the core uncovery time, the time that core exist temperature (CET) exceeds 1200 .deg. F, reactor vessel (RV) failure time and containment failure time by using the cascaded support vector regression (SVR) model. The proposed algorithms were trained and verified using the simulation data of MAAP code for the optimized power rector (OPR1000). In this study, we predicted transient scenarios by CSVR. The MAAP code was used to describe the accident situation and the 13 measured signal data was acquired and used. The CSVR model was developed to find out the transient scenarios by using short timeintegrated signals after reactor trip. The results show that the CSVR models can predict the transient scenarios accurately.

  10. Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hale, A.R.; Ale, B.J.M.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Heijer, T.; Bellamy, L.J; Mud, M.L.; Roelen, A.; Baksteen, H.; Post, J.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bloemhoff, A.; Oh, J.I.H.

    2007-01-01

    The Workgroup Occupational Risk Model (WORM) project in the Netherlands is developing a comprehensive set of scenarios to cover the full range of occupational accidents. The objective is to support companies in their risk analysis and prioritization of prevention. This paper describes how the modeling has developed through projects in the chemical industry, to this one in general industry and how this is planned to develop further in the future to model risk prevention in air transport. The core modeling technique is based on the bowtie, with addition of more explicit modeling of the barriers needed for risk control, the tasks needed to ensure provision, use, monitoring and maintenance of the barriers, and the management resources and tasks required to ensure that these barrier life cycle tasks are carried out effectively. The modeling is moving from a static notion of barriers which can fail, to seeing risk control dynamically as (fallible) means for staying within a safe envelope. The paper shows how concepts develop slowly over a series of projects as a core team works continuously together. It concludes with some results of the WORM project and some indications of how the modeling is raising fundamental questions about the conceptualization of system safety, which need future resolution

  11. Models and criteria for prediction of Deflagration-to-Detonation Transition (DDT) in hydrogen-air-steam systems under severe accident conditions. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, R.; Rehm, W.

    1999-01-01

    The European Commission in Brussels supported a joint project on Deflagration-to-Detonation Transition (DDT) studies for hydrogen safety within the framework programme on nuclear fission safety. The project was initiated by the Forschungszentrum Juelich based on the results of a pilot project. The following main project was coordinated by the Freie Universitaet Berlin involving seven european partners. The partners came from universities, research centers and industry, as follows: FU-Berlin, RWTH-Aachen, CNRS-Marseille, IPSN-Saclay, FZ-Juelich, FZ-Karlsruhe, and NNC-Knutsford, which worked closely together. The working period was two years (1997-1998). The aim of the project was to develop models and criteria for prediction of deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in hydrogen-air-steam systems under severe accident conditions. The results obtained are documented in this final report, which was finished in 1999. The report consists of seven chapters, concerning: - Introduction - Experimental Investigations - Modelling and Numerics - Validation - Mitigation - Further Deliverables - Summary and Conclusion. The final report presents special experimental, theoretical, and computational aspects of the complex DDT phenomena for hydrogen safety studies, and it should be a solid basis for end user applications and further developments. (orig.)

  12. Fission-gas bubble modeling for LMFBR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostensen, R.W.

    1977-01-01

    The behavior of fission-gas bubbles in unrestructured oxide fuel can have a dominant effect on the course of a core disruptive accident in an LMFBR. The paper describes a simplified model of bubble behavior and presents results of that model in analyzing the relevant physical assumptions and predicting gas behavior in molten fuel

  13. Prediction of hydrogen concentration in nuclear power plant containment under severe accidents using cascaded fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun, E-mail: magyna@chosun.ac.kr

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • We present a hydrogen-concentration prediction method in an NPP containment. • The cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) is used in this prediction model. • The CFNN model is much better than the existing FNN model. • This prediction can help prevent severe accidents in NPP due to hydrogen explosion. - Abstract: Recently, severe accidents in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have attracted worldwide interest since the Fukushima accident. If the hydrogen concentration in an NPP containment is increased above 4% in atmospheric pressure, hydrogen combustion will likely occur. Therefore, the hydrogen concentration must be kept below 4%. This study presents the prediction of hydrogen concentration using cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN). The CFNN model repeatedly applies FNN modules that are serially connected. The CFNN model was developed using data on severe accidents in NPPs. The data were obtained by numerically simulating the accident scenarios using the MAAP4 code for optimized power reactor 1000 (OPR1000) because real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents. The root-mean-square error level predicted by the CFNN model is below approximately 5%. It was confirmed that the CFNN model could accurately predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment. If NPP operators can predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment using the CFNN model, this prediction can assist them in preventing a hydrogen explosion.

  14. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

  15. Modeling of corium dispersion in DCH accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Q.

    1996-01-01

    A model that governs the dispersion process in the direct containment heating (DCH) reactor accident scenario is developed by a stepwise approach. In this model, the whole transient is subdivided into four phases with an isothermal assumption. These are the liquid and gas discharge, the liquid film flow in the cavity before gas blowdown, the liquid and gas flow in the cavity with droplet entrainment, and the liquid transport and re-entrainment in the subcompartment. In each step, the dominant driving mechanisms are identified to construct the governing equations. By combining all the steps together, the corium dispersion information is obtained in detail. The key parameters are predicted quantitatively. These include the fraction of liquid that flows out of the cavity before gas blowdown, the dispersion fraction and the mean droplet diameter in the cavity, the cavity pressure rise due to the liquid friction force, and the dispersion fractions in the containment via different paths. Compared with the data of the 1:10 scale experiments carried out at Purdue University, fairly good agreement is obtained. A stand-alone prediction of the corium dispersion under prototypic Zion reactor conditions is carried out by assuming an isothermal process without chemical reactions. (orig.)

  16. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  17. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  18. Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellamy, Linda J.; Damen, Martin; Jan Manuel, Henk; Aneziris, Olga N.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Oh, Joy I.H.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population. - Highlights: • Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given. • Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004. • Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors. • Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents. • Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks

  19. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

  20. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established {sup S}afety Culture{sup ,} the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  1. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established S afety Culture , the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  2. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented...

  3. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nucler Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented....

  4. Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: A Real-Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) Designed for the Operational Prediction of Hazardous Aviation Turbulence Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lux, Kevin M.; Cetola, Jeffrey D.; Huffman, Allan W.; Riordan, Allen J.; Slusser, Sarah W.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Charney, Joseph J.; Waight, Kenneth T.

    2004-01-01

    Real-time prediction of environments predisposed to producing moderate-severe aviation turbulence is studied. We describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real time on a university work station in support of NASA Langley Research Center s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products, including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally, there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross-section plot products are provided from 16 000 to 46 000 ft in 2000-ft intervals. Products are available every 3 hours at the 60- and 30-km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15-km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.

  5. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  6. The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Fontanet, J.; López, C.; Fernández, E.

    2015-07-01

    The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)

  7. MELCOR modeling of Fukushima unit 2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevon, Tuomo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2014-12-15

    A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 2 accident was created in order to get a better understanding of the event and to improve severe accident modeling methods. The measured pressure and water level could be reproduced relatively well with the calculation. This required adjusting the RCIC system flow rates and containment leak area so that a good match to the measurements is achieved. Modeling of gradual flooding of the torus room with water that originated from the tsunami was necessary for a satisfactory reproduction of the measured containment pressure. The reactor lower head did not fail in this calculation, and all the fuel remained in the RPV. 13 % of the fuel was relocated from the core area, and all the fuel rods lost their integrity, releasing at least some volatile radionuclides. According to the calculation, about 90 % of noble gas inventory and about 0.08 % of cesium inventory was released to the environment. The release started 78 h after the earthquake, and a second release peak came at 90 h. Uncertainties in the calculation are very large because there is scarce public data available about the Fukushima power plant and because it is not yet possible to inspect the status of the reactor and the containment. Uncertainty in the calculated cesium release is larger than factor of ten.

  8. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A note on modeling road accident frequency: a flexible elasticity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, António; Ferreira, Sara

    2011-11-01

    Count data models and their variants have been widely applied in accident modeling. The traditional log-linear function is used to represent the relationship between explanatory variables and the dependent variable (accident frequency). However, this function assumes constant elasticity for the estimation parameters, which is a limitation in the analysis of the effects of explanatory variables on accident risk. Although interaction effects between explanatory variables have been studied in the road safety context (where they are normally assessed by logistic regression), no one has yet examined the possibility of using a flexible function form allowing non-constant elasticity values. This paper seeks to explore the use of the translog function usually used in the economics context to allow the elasticity to vary with the values of other explanatory variables. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the application of the translog function to accident modeling and to compare the results with those of the traditional log-linear function negative binomial (NB) model. The results show that, in terms of goodness-of-fit statistics and residual analysis, the NB model with the translog function performs better than the traditional NB model. Additional evaluations in terms of predictive performance, hotspot identification and uncertainty associated with the estimated values were taken into account. Although this study is exploratory in nature, it suggests that the translog function has considerable potential for modeling accident observations. It is hoped that this novel accident modeling methodology will open the door to the reliable interpretation and evaluation of the influence of explanatory variables on accident frequency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

  11. Prediction of thermal hydraulic parameters in the loss of coolant accident by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaziri, N.; Erfani, A.; Monsefi, M.; Hajabri, A.

    2008-01-01

    In a reactor accident like loss of coolant accident , one or more signals may not be monitored by control panel for some reasons such as interruptions and so on. Therefore a fast alternative method could guarantee the safe and reliable exploration of nuclear power planets. In this study, we used artificial neural network with Elman recurrent structure to predict six thermal hydraulic signals in a loss of coolant accident after upper plenum break. In the prediction procedure, a few previous samples are fed to the artificial neural network and the output value or next time step is estimated by the network output. The Elman recurrent network is trained with the data obtained from the benchmark simulation of loss of coolant accident in VVER. The results reveal that the predicted values follow the real trends well and artificial neural network can be used as a fast alternative prediction tool in loss of coolant accident

  12. A measurement-based method for predicting margins and uncertainties for unprotected accidents in the Integral Fast Reactor concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilim, R.B.

    1990-01-01

    A measurement-based method for predicting the response of an LMR core to unprotected accidents has been developed. The method processes plant measurements taken at normal operation to generate a stochastic model for the core dynamics. This model can be used to predict three sigma confidence intervals for the core temperature and power response. Preliminary numerical simulations performed for EBR-2 appear promising. 6 refs., 2 figs

  13. Predictive factors for cerebrovascular accidents after thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariscalco, Giovanni; Piffaretti, Gabriele; Tozzi, Matteo; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Sala, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

    2009-12-01

    Cerebrovascular accidents are devastating and worrisome complications after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The aim of this study was to determine cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Between January 2001 and June 2008, 76 patients treated with thoracic endovascular aortic repair were prospectively enrolled. The study cohort included 61 men; mean age was 65.4 +/- 16.8 years. All patients underwent a specific neurologic assessment on an hourly basis postoperatively to detect neurologic deficits. Cerebrovascular accidents were diagnosed on the basis of physical examination, tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging, or autopsy. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 8 (10.5%) patients, including 4 transient ischemic attack and 4 major strokes. Four cases were observed within the first 24-hours. Multivariable analysis revealed that anatomic incompleteness of the Willis circle (odds ratio [OR] 17.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10 to 140.66), as well as the presence of coronary artery disease (OR 6.86, 95 CI% 1.18 to 40.05), were independently associated with postoperative cerebrovascular accident development. Overall hospital mortality was 9.2%, with no significant difference for patients hit by cerebrovascular accidents (25.0% vs 7.3%, p = 0.102). Preexisting coronary artery disease, reflecting a severe diseased aorta and anomalies of Willis circle are independent cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedures. A careful evaluation of the arch vessels and cerebral vascularization should be mandatory for patients suitable for thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

  14. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang Xinxin [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

    2014-08-15

    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented.

  15. The prediction of the LWR plant accident based on the measured plant data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, J.; Schmuck, P.

    2005-01-01

    In case of accident affecting a nuclear reactor, it is essential to anticipate the possible development of the situation to efficiently succeed in emergency response actions, i.e. firstly to be early warned, to get sufficient information on the plant: and as far as possible. The ASTRID (Assessment of Source Term for Emergency Response based on Installation Data) project consists in developing a methodology: of expertise to; structure the work of technical teams and to facilitate cross competence communications among EP players and a qualified computer tool that could be commonly used by the European countries to reliably predict source term in case of an accident in a light water reactor, using the information available on the plant. In many accident conditions the team of analysts may be located far away from the plant experiencing the accident and their decision making is based on the on-line plant data transmitted into the crisis centre in an interval of 30 - 600 seconds. The plant condition has to be diagnosed based on this information, In the ASTRID project the plant status diagnostics has been studied for the European reactor types including BWR, PWR and VVER plants. The directly measured plant data may be used for estimations of the break size from the primary system and its locations. The break size prediction may be based on the pressurizer level, reactor vessel level, primary pressure and steam generator level in the case of the steam generator tube rupture. In the ASTRID project the break predictions concept was developed and its validity for different plant types and is presented in the paper, when the plant data has been created with the plant specific thermohydraulic simulation model. The tracking simulator attempts to follow the plant behavior on-line based on the measured plant data for the main process parameters and most important boundary conditions. When the plant state tracking fails, the plant may be experiencing an accident, and the tracking

  16. Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

    2014-09-15

    Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  18. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  19. Predicting Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Children after Road Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landolt, Markus A.; Vollrath, Margarete; Timm, Karin; Gnehm, Hanspeter E.; Sennhauser, Felix H.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To prospectively assess the prevalence, course, and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs) in children after road traffic accidents (RTAs). Method: Sixty-eight children (6.5-14.5 years old) were interviewed 4-6 weeks and 12 months after an RTA with the Child PTSD Reaction Index (response rate 58.6%). Their mothers (n = 60)…

  20. Identifying traffic accident black spots with Poisson-Tweedie models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debrabant, Birgit; Halekoh, Ulrich; Bonat, Wagner Hugo

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims at the identification of black spots for traffic accidents, i.e. locations with accident counts beyond what is usual for similar locations, using spatially and temporally aggregated hospital records from Funen, Denmark. Specifically, we apply an autoregressive Poisson-Tweedie model...... considered calendar years and calculated by simulations a probability of p=0.03 for these to be chance findings. Altogether, our results recommend these sites for further investigation and suggest that our simple approach could play a role in future area based traffic accident prevention planning....

  1. Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmen Carnero, Maria; Jose Pedregal, Diego

    2010-01-01

    The control of accidents at the work place is a critical issue all over the world. The consequences of occupational accidents in terms of costs for the company in which the accidents take place is only one minor matter, being the social impact and the loss of human life the most controversial effects of this important problem. The methods used to forecast future evolution of accidents are often limited to trend estimations and projections, being the scientific literature on this topic rather scarce. This paper aims at showing and predicting the evolution of Spanish occupational accidents of different levels of severity, allowing the evaluation of the influence that preventive actions carried out by public administrations or private companies may have over the number of occupational accidents. Though some contributions may be found on this topic for Spain, this paper is the first contribution that forecast occupational accidents for different levels of severity using Multivariate Unobserved Components models developed in a State Space framework extended to deal with the irregular sampling interval of the data. Data from 1998 to 2009 have been used to test the efficacy of the forecasting system.

  2. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  3. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

  4. Comparative modeling analyses of Cs-137 fate in the rivers impacted by Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S. [Institute of Environmental Radioactivity, Fukushima University (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The consequences of two largest nuclear accidents of the last decades - at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) (1986) and at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (FDNPP) (2011) clearly demonstrated that radioactive contamination of water bodies in vicinity of NPP and on the waterways from it, e.g., river- reservoir water after Chernobyl accident and rivers and coastal marine waters after Fukushima accident, in the both cases have been one of the main sources of the public concerns on the accident consequences. The higher weight of water contamination in public perception of the accidents consequences in comparison with the real fraction of doses via aquatic pathways in comparison with other dose components is a specificity of public perception of environmental contamination. This psychological phenomenon that was confirmed after these accidents provides supplementary arguments that the reliable simulation and prediction of the radionuclide dynamics in water and sediments is important part of the post-accidental radioecological research. The purpose of the research is to use the experience of the modeling activities f conducted for the past more than 25 years within the Chernobyl affected Pripyat River and Dnieper River watershed as also data of the new monitoring studies in Japan of Abukuma River (largest in the region - the watershed area is 5400 km{sup 2}), Kuchibuto River, Uta River, Niita River, Natsui River, Same River, as also of the studies on the specific of the 'water-sediment' {sup 137}Cs exchanges in this area to refine the 1-D model RIVTOX and 2-D model COASTOX for the increasing of the predictive power of the modeling technologies. The results of the modeling studies are applied for more accurate prediction of water/sediment radionuclide contamination of rivers and reservoirs in the Fukushima Prefecture and for the comparative analyses of the efficiency of the of the post -accidental measures to diminish the contamination of the water bodies. Document

  5. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  6. Prediction of thermal margin for external cooling of reactor vessel lower head during a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Ho Jun; Suh, Kune Y.

    1998-01-01

    In the TMI-2 accident, approximately nineteen (19) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. One of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 .deg. C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, the COrium Attak Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in -vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) were demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the TMI-2 and the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactors. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. In studying the in-vessel severe accident phenomena, one of the main goals is to verify the cooling mechanism in the reactor vessel lower plenum and thereby to prevent the vessel failure from thermal attack by the molten debris. This paper presents the first-principle calculation results for the thermal margin for the case of external cooling of the reactor vessel lower head. Adopting the method presented by F.B. Cheung, et al., we calculated the departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) for the three cases of pool boiling, flow boiling

  7. Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

  8. Synthesis of the models used in France for the evaluation of the consequences of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crabol, B.

    1992-01-01

    In order to evaluate the consequences of an atmospheric release in case of an accident on a nuclear installation, different predictive models have been developed by the organizations involved in the management of the crisis. These models are of different numerical complexity: precalculated graphs, gaussian puff models or 3D models. The harmonization of these models, the definition of their use, notably in the first phases of the accident (predictive and real-time phases) have been discussed in a working group including representants of the utility, the safety authorities and the Meteorological Office. The reflexions of the group, the models already operational, those still under discussion and their use in the different technical crisis centers are presented

  9. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  10. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  11. Comparison of SAS3A and MELT-III predictions for a transient overpower hypothetical accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilburn, N.P.

    1976-01-01

    A comparison is made of the predictions of the two major codes SAS3A and MELT-III for the hypothetical unprotected transient overpower accident in the FFTF. The predictions of temperatures, fuel restructuring, fuel melting, reactivity feedbacks, and core power are compared

  12. An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

    2013-04-01

    The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Yunfei; Tong, Jiejuan; Zhang, Liguo, E-mail: lgzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Qin

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM.

  14. Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

    2017-09-01

    Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

  15. A drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riewpaiboon A

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at a regional hospital in Thailand. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004. Results: Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36. The fitted drug cost model had an adjusted R2 of 0.449. The positive significant predictor variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over 30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of accident during 18:00-24:00 o’clock, and motorcycle comparing to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on the forecasted values of statistically significant (p<0.05 predictor variables included in the fitted model; predicted total drug cost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost, predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43% higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach.Conclusions: The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The application of a predicted average cost model could result in a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic approach.

  16. Modelling and analysis of severe accidents for VVER-1000 reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tusheva, Polina

    2012-01-01

    effectiveness of the procedures strongly depends on the ability of the passive safety systems to inject as much water as possible into the reactor coolant system. The results on the early in-vessel phase have shown potentially delayed RPV failure by depressurization of the primary side, as slowing the core damage gives more time and different possibilities for operator interventions to recover systems and to mitigate or terminate the accident. The ANSYS model for the description of the molten pool behaviour in the RPV lower plenum has been extended by a model considering a stratified molten pool configuration. Two different pool configurations were analysed: homogeneous and segregated. The possible failure modes of the RPV and the time to failure were investigated to assess the possible loadings on the containment. The main treated issues are: the temperature field within the corium pool and the RPV and the structure-mechanical behaviour of the vessel wall. The results of the ASTEC calculations of the melt pool configuration were applied as initial conditions for the ANSYS simulations, allowing a more detailed and more accurate modelling of the thermal and mechanical behaviour of the core melt and the RPV wall. Moreover, for the late in-vessel phase, retention of the corium in the RPV was investigated presuming external cooling of the vessel wall as mitigative severe accident management measure. The study was based on the finite element computer code ANSYS. The highest thermomechanical loads are observed in the transition zone between the elliptical and the vertical vessel wall for homogeneous pool and in the vertical part of the vessel wall, which is in contact with the molten metal in case of sub-oxidized pool. Assuming external flooding will retain the corium within the RPV. Without flooding, the vessel wall will fail, as the necessary temperature for a balanced heat release from the external surface via radiation is near to or above the melting point of the steel.

  17. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  18. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  19. Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-31

    This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

  20. Reactor accident calculation models in use in the Nordic countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveten, U.

    1984-01-01

    The report relates to a subproject under a Nordic project called ''Large reactor accidents - consequences and mitigating actions''. In the first part of the report short descriptions of the various models are given. A systematic list by subject is then given. In the main body of the report chapter and subchapter headings are by subject. (Auth.)

  1. Accident Analysis Methods and Models — a Systematic Literature Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wienen, Hans Christian Augustijn; Bukhsh, Faiza Allah; Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2017-01-01

    As part of our co-operation with the Telecommunication Agency of the Netherlands, we want to formulate an accident analysis method and model for use in incidents in telecommunications that cause service unavailability. In order to not re-invent the wheel, we wanted to first get an overview of all

  2. Comparison of US/FRG accident condition models for HTGR fuel failure and radionuclide release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.

    1991-03-01

    The objective was to compare calculation models used in safety analyses in the US and FRG which describe fission product release behavior from TRISO coated fuel particles under core heatup accident conditions. The frist step performed is the qualitative comparison of both sides' fuel failure and release models in order to identify differences and similarities in modeling assumptions and inputs. Assumptions of possible particle failure mechanisms under accident conditions (SiC degradation, pressure vessel) are principally the same on both sides though they are used in different modeling approaches. The characterization of a standard (= intact) coated particle to be of non-releasing (GA) or possibly releasing (KFA/ISF) type is one of the major qualitative differences. Similar models are used regarding radionuclide release from exposed particle kernels. In a second step, a quantitative comparison of the calculation models was made by assessing a benchmark problem predicting particle failure and radionuclide release under MHTGR conduction cooldown accident conditions. Calculations with each side's reference method have come to almost the same failure fractions after 250 hours for the core region with maximum core heatup temperature despite the different modeling approaches of SORS and PANAMA-I. The comparison of the results of particle failure obtained with the Integrated Failure and Release Model for Standard Particles and its revision provides a 'verification' of these models in this sense that the codes (SORS and PANAMA-II, and -III, respectively) which were independently developed lead to very good agreement in the predictions. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Having a New Pair of Glassess : Applying Systemic Accident Models on Road Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Yu-Hsing

    2007-01-01

    The main purpose of the thesis is to discuss the accident models which underlie accident prevention in general and road safety in particular, and the consequences of relying on a particular model have for actual preventive work. The discussion centres on two main topics. The first topic is whether the underlying accident model, or paradigm, of traditional road safety should be exchanged for a more complex accident model, and if so, which model(s) are appropriate. From a discussion of current ...

  4. Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.

    1986-01-01

    Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented

  5. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  6. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models

  7. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe, in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  8. Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingyu; Shi Zhongqi

    2002-01-01

    The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

  9. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-01

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe - in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  10. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  11. Investigation of Zircaloy-2 oxidation model for SFP accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemoto, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: nemoto.yoshiyuki@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Chihiro; Kondo, Keietsu [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Nakashima, Kazuo; Kanazawa, Toru; Tojo, Masayuki [Global Nuclear Fuel – Japan Co., Ltd., 2-3-1, Uchikawa, Yokosuka-shi, Kanagawa, 239-0836 (Japan)

    2017-05-15

    The authors previously conducted thermogravimetric analyses on Zircaloy-2 in air. By using the thermogravimetric data, an oxidation model was constructed in this study so that it can be applied for the modeling of cladding degradation in spent fuel pool (SFP) severe accident condition. For its validation, oxidation tests of long cladding tube were conducted, and computational fluid dynamics analyses using the constructed oxidation model were proceeded to simulate the experiments. In the oxidation tests, high temperature thermal gradient along the cladding axis was applied and air flow rates in testing chamber were controlled to simulate hypothetical SFP accidents. The analytical outputs successfully reproduced the growth of oxide film and porous oxide layer on the claddings in oxidation tests, and validity of the oxidation model was proved. Influence of air flow rate for the oxidation behavior was thought negligible in the conditions investigated in this study. - Highlights: •An oxidation model of Zircaloy-2 in air environment was developed. •The oxidation model was validated by the comparison with oxidation tests using long cladding tubes in hypothetical spent fuel pool accident condition. •The oxidation model successfully reproduced the typical oxidation behavior in air.

  12. Predicted HIFAR fuel element temperatures for postulated loss-of-coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, W.J.

    1987-04-01

    A two-dimensional theoretical heat transfer model of a HIFAR Mark IV/Va fuel element has been developed and validated by comparing predicted thermal performances with experimental temperature responses obtained from irradiated fuel elements during simulated accident conditions. Full details of the model's development and its verification have been reported elsewhere. In this report, the model has been further used to ascertain acceptable limits of fuel element decay power for the start of two specific LOCAs which have been identified by the Regulatory Bureau of the AAEC. For a single fuel element which is positioned within a fuel load/unload flask and is not subjected to any forced convective air cooling, the model indicates that fission product decay powers must not exceed 1.86 kW if fuel surface temperatures are not to exceed 450 deg C. In the case of a HIFAR core LOCA in which the complete inventory of heavy water is lost, it is calculated that the maximum fission product decay power of a central element must not exceed 1.1 kW if fuel surface temperatures are not to exceed 450 deg C anywhere in the core

  13. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  14. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-01

    This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be ∼ 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the regional

  15. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be approx 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the

  16. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Qureshi, Zahid H

    2008-01-01

    .... This report provides a review of key traditional accident modelling approaches and their limitations, and describes new system-theoretic approaches to the modelling and analysis of accidents in safety-critical systems...

  17. A Comparative Analysis and Prediction of Traffic Accident Causalities in the Sultanate of Oman using Artificial Neural Networks and Statistical methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galal A. Ali

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents are among the major causes of death in the Sultanate of Oman This is particularly the case in the age group of I6 to 25. Studies indicate that, in spite of Oman's high population-per-vehicle ratio, its fatality rate per l0,000 vehicles is one of the highest in the world. This alarming Situation underlines the importance of analyzing traffic accident data and predicting accident casualties. Such steps will lead to understanding the underlying causes of traffic accidents, and thereby to devise appropriate measures to reduce the number of car accidents and enhance safety standards. In this paper, a comparative study of car accident casualties in Oman was undertaken. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs were used to analyze the data and make predictions of the number of accident casualties. The results were compared with those obtained from the analysis and predictions by regression techniques. Both approaches attempted to model accident casualties using historical  data on related factors, such as population, number of cars on the road and so on, covering the period from I976 to 1994. Forecasts for the years 1995 to 2000 were made using ANNs and regression equations. The results from ANNs provided the best fit for the data. However, it was found that ANNs gave lower forecasts relative to those obtained by the regression methods used, indicating that ANNs are suitable for interpolation but their use for extrapolation may be limited. Nevertheless, the study showed that ANNs provide a potentially powerful tool in analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents and casualties.

  18. Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    The demands on nuclear fuel have recently been increasing, and include transient regimes, higher discharge burnup and longer fuel cycles. This has resulted in an increase of loads on fuel and core internals. In order to satisfy these demands while ensuring compliance with safety criteria, new national and international programmes have been launched and advanced modelling codes are being developed. The Fukushima Daiichi accident has particularly demonstrated the need for adequate analysis of all aspects of fuel performance to prevent a failure and also to predict fuel behaviour were an accident to occur.This publication presents the Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents, which was hosted by the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) in Chengdu, China, following the recommendation made in 2013 at the IAEA Technical Working Group on Fuel Performance and Technology. This recommendation was in agreement with IAEA mid-term initiatives, linked to the post-Fukushima IAEA Nuclear Safety Action Plan, as well as the forthcoming Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Fuel Modelling in Accident Conditions. At the technical meeting in Chengdu, major areas and physical phenomena, as well as types of code and experiment to be studied and used in the CRP, were discussed. The technical meeting provided a forum for international experts to review the state of the art of code development for modelling fuel performance of nuclear fuel for water cooled reactors with regard to steady state and transient conditions, and for design basis and early phases of severe accidents, including experimental support for code validation. A round table discussion focused on the needs and perspectives on fuel modelling in accident conditions. This meeting was the ninth in a series of IAEA meetings, which reflects Member States’ continuing interest in nuclear fuel issues. The previous meetings were held in 1980 (jointly with

  19. A parametric study of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2) Input Values for the Predicted Health Effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, So Ra; Min, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

    2016-01-01

    The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2, MACCS2, has been the most widely used through the world among the off-site consequence analysis codes. MACCS2 code is used to estimate the radionuclide concentrations, radiological doses, health effects, and economic consequences that could result from the hypothetical nuclear accidents. Most of the MACCS model parameter values are defined by the user and those input parameters can make a significant impact on the output. A limited parametric study was performed to identify the relative importance of the values of each input parameters in determining the predicted early and latent health effects in MACCS2. These results would not be applicable to every case of the nuclear accidents, because only the limited calculation was performed with Kori-specific data. The endpoints of the assessment were early- and latent cancer-risk in the exposed population, therefore it might produce the different results with the parametric studies for other endpoints, such as contamination level, absorbed dose, and economic cost. Accident consequence assessment is important for decision making to minimize the health effect from radiation exposure, accordingly the sufficient parametric studies are required for the various endpoints and input parameters in further research

  20. A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M.

    1988-01-01

    A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs

  1. Boundary effects on car accidents in a cellular automaton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xianqing; Ma Yuqiang; Zhao Yuemin

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we numerically study the probability P ac of occurrence of car accidents in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model with open boundary condition. In the deterministic NS model, numerical results show that there exists a critical value of extinction rate β above which no car accidents occur, and below which the probability P ac is independent of the speed limit v max and the injection rate α, but only determined by the extinction rate β. In the non-deterministic NS model, the probability P ac is a non-monotonic function of β in the region of low β value, while it is independent of β in the region of high β value. The stochastic braking not only reduces the occurrence of car accidents, but splits degenerate effects of v max on the probability P ac . Theoretical analyses give an agreement with numerical results in the deterministic NS model and in the non-deterministic NS model with v max = 1 in the case of low β value region. Qualitative differences between open and periodic systems in the relations of P ac to the bulk density ρ imply that various correlations may exist between the two systems

  2. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heams, T.J.; Williams, D.A.; Johns, N.A.; Mason, A.; Bixler, N.E.; Grimley, A.J.; Wheatley, C.J.; Dickson, L.W.; Osborn-Lee, I.; Domagala, P.; Zawadzki, S.; Rest, J.; Alexander, C.A.; Lee, R.Y.

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided

  3. Study on integrated approach of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling System based on GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Lijuan; Huang Shunxiang; Wang Xinming

    2012-01-01

    The issue of nuclear safety becomes the attention focus of international society after the nuclear accident happened in Fukushima. Aiming at the requirements of the prevention and controlling of Nuclear Accident establishment of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning and optimized Controlling System (NAPWS) is a imperative project that our country and army are desiderating, which includes multiple fields of subject as nuclear physics, atmospheric science, security science, computer science and geographical information technology, etc. Multiplatform, multi-system and multi-mode are integrated effectively based on GIS, accordingly the Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling technology System of Nuclear Accident Hazard is established. (authors)

  4. Development of CHF models for inner and outer RPV gaps in a meltdown severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.; Tian, W.X.; Feng, K.; Yu, H.X.; Zhang, Y.P.; Su, G.H.; Qiu, S.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. • The computed result was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. • An analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. • The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. • Two CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF predict the CHF well. - Abstract: During a severe accident, the core melt relocates in the lower head and a hemispherical narrow gap may appear between the crust and the lower head because of the different material expansion ratio. The existence of this gap is very important to the integrity of the lower head. Based on the counter current flow limitation (CCFL) between the vapor phase and the liquid phase, a CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. The CHF model developed was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. The effect of key parameters, including the system pressure, radius of melt, and gap size, on the CHF were investigated. And the TMI-2 accident was also calculated by using the CHF formula. Moreover, based on the interface separation model, an analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. It indicated that the CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF could predict the CHF well

  5. Use of flow models to analyse loss of coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinet, Bernard

    1978-01-01

    This article summarises current work on developing the use of flow models to analyse loss-of-coolant accident in pressurized-water plants. This work is being done jointly, in the context of the LOCA Technical Committee, by the CEA, EDF and FRAMATOME. The construction of the flow model is very closely based on some theoretical studies of the two-fluid model. The laws of transfer at the interface and at the wall are tested experimentally. The representativity of the model then has to be checked in experiments involving several elementary physical phenomena [fr

  6. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  7. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  8. A model national emergency plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-07-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a result, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request

  9. A model national emergency response plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a results, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request. 2 tabs

  10. Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1989-11-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

  11. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  12. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negut, Gheorghe [National Agency for Radioactive Waste, 1, Campului Str., 115400 Mioveni (Romania)], E-mail: gheorghe.negut@andrad.ro; Catana, Alexandru [Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, 1, Campului Str., Mioveni P.O. Box 78, 0300 Pitesti (Romania); Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel [Politehnica University Bucharest, 313, Splaiul Independentei, Sect. 6, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2009-09-15

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  13. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, Gheorghe; Catana, Alexandru; Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  14. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  15. Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

  16. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  17. Modeling of criticality accidents and their environmental consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, W.; Gmal, B.

    1987-01-01

    In the Federal Republic of Germany, potential radiological consequences of accidental nuclear criticality have to be evaluated in the licensing procedure for fuel cycle facilities. A prerequisite to this evaluation is to establish conceivable accident scenarios. First, possibilities for a criticality exceeding the generally applied double contingency principle of safety are identified by screening the equipment and operation of the facility. Identification of undetected accumulations of fissile material or incorrect transfer of fissile solution to unfavorable geometry normally are most important. Second, relevant and credible scenarios causing the most severe consequences are derived from these possibilities. For the identified relevant scenarios, time-dependent fission rates and reasonable numbers for peak power and total fissions must be determined. Experience from real accidents and experiments (KEWB, SPERT, CRAC, SILENE) has been evaluated using empirical formulas. To model the time-dependent behavior of criticality excursions in fissile solutions, a computer program FELIX has been developed

  18. Impact of sophisticated fog spray models on accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roblyer, S.P.; Owzarski, P.C.

    1978-01-01

    The N-Reactor confinement system release dose to the public in a postulated accident is reduced by washing the confinement atmosphere with fog sprays. This allows a low pressure release of confinement atmosphere containing fission products through filters and out an elevated stack. The current accident analysis required revision of the CORRAL code and other codes such as CONTEMPT to properly model the N Reactor confinement into a system of multiple fog-sprayed compartments. In revising these codes, more sophisticated models for the fog sprays and iodine plateout were incorporated to remove some of the conservatism of steam condensing rate, fission product washout and iodine plateout than used in previous studies. The CORRAL code, which was used to describe the transport and deposition of airborne fission products in LWR containment systems for the Rasmussen Study, was revised to describe fog spray removal of molecular iodine (I 2 ) and particulates in multiple compartments for sprays having individual characteristics of on-off times, flow rates, fall heights, and drop sizes in changing containment atmospheres. During postulated accidents, the code determined the fission product removal rates internally rather than from input decontamination factors. A discussion is given of how the calculated plateout and washout rates vary with time throughout the analysis. The results of the accident analyses indicated that more credit could be given to fission product washout and plateout. An important finding was that the release of fission products to the atmosphere and adsorption of fission products on the filters were significantly lower than previous studies had indicated

  19. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  20. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  1. Determination of doses to different organs and prediction of health detriment, after hypothetical accident in mtr reactor core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amin, E A; Abd El-Ghani, A H [National Center of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1997-12-31

    As a result of pypothetical accidents with release of high amount of fission products, the doses to different organs consequent upon inhalation of radioactive fission products are calculated. The processes are modeled using the ORIGIN and TIRION-4 codes: source term, containment and activity enclosure, time dependent activity behaviour in the building, and radiation exposure in the reactor building. Prediction of health detriments were calculated using ICRP-60 nominal probability coefficients and organ doses determined for bone, lung, and thyroid gland, after whole body exposure from internal inhalation and external emmersion. 11 tabs.

  2. Prediction of failure of highly irradiated Zircaloy clad tubes under reactivity initiated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jernkvist, L.O.

    2003-01-01

    This paper deals with failure of irradiated Zircaloy tubes under the heat-up stage of a reactivity initiated accident (RIA). More precisely, by use of a model for plastic strain localization and necking failure, we theoretically analyse the effects of local surface defects on clad ductility and survivability under RIA. The results show that even very shallow surface defects, e.g. arising from a non-uniform or partially spilled oxide layer, have a strong limiting effect on clad ductility. Moreover, in presence of surface defects, the ability of the clad tube to expand radially without necking failure is found to be extremely sensitive to the stress biaxiality ratio σ zz /σ θθ , which is here assumed to be in the range from 0 to 1. The results of our analysis are compared with clad ductility data available in literature, and their consequences for clad failure prediction under RIA are discussed. In particular, the results raise serious concerns regarding the applicability of failure criteria, which are based on clad strain energy density. These criteria do not capture the observed sensitivity to stress biaxiality on clad failure propensity. (author)

  3. Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past

  4. Development of two-dimensional hot pool model and analysis of the ULOHS accident in KALIMER design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Jeong, K. S.; Hahn, H. D

    2000-10-01

    In the new version of HP2D program, the variation model of the hot pool sodium level is added so that the temperature and velocity profiles can be predicted more accurately than old version. To verify and validate the developed new version model, comparison of the MONJU experimental data with the predicted one is performed and analyzed. And also the ULOHS(Unprotected Loss of Heat Sink) accident in the KALIMER design is performed and analyzed.

  5. Development of two-dimensional hot pool model and analysis of the ULOHS accident in KALIMER design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Jeong, K. S.; Hahn, H. D.

    2000-10-01

    In the new version of HP2D program, the variation model of the hot pool sodium level is added so that the temperature and velocity profiles can be predicted more accurately than old version. To verify and validate the developed new version model, comparison of the MONJU experimental data with the predicted one is performed and analyzed. And also the ULOHS(Unprotected Loss of Heat Sink) accident in the KALIMER design is performed and analyzed

  6. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

  7. Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

  8. Modeling framework for crew decisions during accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukic, Y.D.; Worledge, D.H.; Hannaman, G.W.; Spurgin, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    The ability to model the average behavior of operating crews in the course of accident sequences is vital in learning on how to prevent damage to power plants and to maintain safety. This paper summarizes the work carried out in support of a Human Reliability Model framework. This work develops the mathematical framework of the model and identifies the parameters which could be measured in some way, e.g., through simulator experience and/or small scale tests. Selected illustrative examples are presented, of the numerical experiments carried out in order to understand the model sensitivity to parameter variation. These examples ar discussed with the objective of deriving insights of general nature regarding operating of the model which may lead to enhanced understanding of man/machine interactions

  9. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

    1985-01-01

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  10. Development of hydrogeological modelling approaches for assessment of consequences of hazardous accidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumynin, V.G.; Mironenko, V.A.; Konosavsky, P.K.; Pereverzeva, S.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper introduces some modeling approaches for predicting the influence of hazardous accidents at nuclear reactors on groundwater quality. Possible pathways for radioactive releases from nuclear power plants were considered to conceptualize boundary conditions for solving the subsurface radionuclides transport problems. Some approaches to incorporate physical-and-chemical interactions into transport simulators have been developed. The hydrogeological forecasts were based on numerical and semi-analytical scale-dependent models. They have been applied to assess the possible impact of the nuclear power plants designed in Russia on groundwater reservoirs

  11. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

  12. A simplified model for calculating atmospheric radionuclide transport and early health effects from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1995-01-01

    During certain hypothetical severe accidents in a nuclear power plant, radionuclides could be released to the environment as a plume. Prediction of the atmospheric dispersion and transport of these radionuclides is important for assessment of the risk to the public from such accidents. A simplified PC-based model was developed that predicts time-integrated air concentration of each radionuclide at any location from release as a function of time integrated source strength using the Gaussian plume model. The solution procedure involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position, using simplified meteorology. The formulation allows for dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and daughter buildup, reactor building wake effects, the inversion lid effect, plume rise due to buoyancy or momentum, release duration, and grass height. Based on air and ground concentrations of the radionuclides, the early dose to an individual is calculated via cloudshine, groundshine, and inhalation. The model also calculates early health effects based on the doses. This paper presents aspects of the model that would be of interest to the prediction of environmental flows and their public consequences

  13. Thermal-hydraulic and aerosol containment phenomena modelling in ASTEC severe accident computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kljenak, Ivo; Dapper, Maik; Dienstbier, Jiri; Herranz, Luis E.; Koch, Marco K.; Fontanet, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Transients in containment systems of different scales (Phebus.FP containment, KAEVER vessel, Battelle Model Containment, LACE vessel and VVER-1000 nuclear power plant containment) involving thermal-hydraulic phenomena and aerosol behaviour, were simulated with the computer integral code ASTEC. The results of the simulations in the first four facilities were compared with experimental results, whereas the results of the simulated accident in the VVER-1000 containment were compared to results obtained with the MELCOR code. The main purpose of the simulations was the validation of the CPA module of the ASTEC code. The calculated results support the applicability of the code for predicting in-containment thermal-hydraulic and aerosol phenomena during a severe accident in a nuclear power plant.

  14. The accident consequence model of the German safety study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebschmann, W.

    1977-01-01

    The accident consequence model essentially describes a) the diffusion in the atmosphere and deposition on the soil of radioactive material released from the reactor into the atmosphere; b) the irradiation exposure and health consequences of persons affected. It is used to calculate c) the number of persons suffering from acute or late damage, taking into account possible counteractions such as relocation or evacuation, and d) the total risk to the population from the various types of accident. The model, the underlying parameters and assumptions are described. The bone marrow dose distribution is shown for the case of late overpressure containment failure, which is discussed in the paper of Heuser/Kotthoff, combined with four typical weather conditions. The probability distribution functions for acute mortality, late incidence of cancer and genetic damage are evaluated, assuming a characteristic population distribution. The aim of these calculations is first the presentation of some results of the consequence model as an example, in second the identification of problems, which need possibly in a second phase of study to be evaluated in more detail. (orig.) [de

  15. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, Orihiko; Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsuzuru, Hideo; Kobayashi, Sadayoshi

    1991-02-01

    A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard University (NUREG/CR-4214). These models are revised on the basis of the new information on risk estimates by the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The models deal with the following effects: (1) early effects models for bone marrow, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, central nervous system, thyroid, skin and reproductive organs, using the Weibull function, (2) late somatic effects models including leukemia and cancers of breast, lungs, thyroid, gastrointestinal tract and so forth, on the basis of the information derived from epidemiological studies on the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, (3) models for late and developmental effects due to exposure in utero. (author)

  16. Global atmospheric dispersion modelling after the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, K.S.; Youm, M.K.; Lee, B.G.; Min, B.I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Korea, Republic of); Raul, P. [Universidad de Sevilla (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    A large amount of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere due to the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The radioactive materials released into the atmosphere were mostly transported to the Pacific Ocean, but some of them were fallen on the surface due to dry and wet depositions in the northwest area from the Fukushima nuclear site. Therefore, northwest part of the nuclear site was seriously contaminated and it was designated with the restricted zone within a radius of 20 ∼ 30 km around the Fukushima nuclear site. In the early phase of the accident from 11 March to 30 March, the radioactive materials were dispersed to an area of the inland and offshore of the nuclear site by the variations of the wind. After the Fukushima accident, the radionuclides were detected through the air monitoring in the many places over the world. The radioactive plume was transported to the east part off the site by the westerly jet stream. It had detected in the North America during March 17-21, in European countries during March 23-24, and in Asia during from March 24 to April 6, 2011. The radioactive materials were overall detected across the northern hemisphere passed by 15 ∼ 20 days after the accident. Three dimensional numerical model was applied to evaluate the dispersion characteristics of the radionuclides released into the air. Simulated results were compared with measurements in many places over the world. Comparative results had good agreements in some places, but they had a little differences in some locations. The difference between the calculations and measurements are due to the meteorological data and relatively coarse resolutions in the model. Some radioactive materials were measured in Philippines, Taiwan, Hon Kong and South Korea during from March 23-28. It inferred that it was directly transported from the Fukushima by the northeastern monsoon winds. This event was well represented in the numerical model. Generally, the simulations had a good

  17. Predictability of iodine chemistry in the containment of a nuclear power plant under hypothetical severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Vela-Garcia, M.; Fontanet, J. [Unit of Nuclear Safety Research, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-01

    One of the areas of top interest in the arena of severe accidents to get an accurate prediction of Source Term is Iodine Chemistry. In this paper an assessment of the current capability of MELCOR and ASTEC to predict iodine chemistry within containment in case of a postulated severe accident has been carried out. The experiments FPT1 and FPT2 of the PHEBUS-FP project have been used for comparisons, since they were carried out under rather different containment conditions during the chemistry phase (subcooled vs. saturated sump or acid vs. alkaline pH), which makes them very suitable to assess the current modeling capability of in-containment iodine chemistry models. The results obtained indicate that, even though, both integral codes have specific areas related to iodine chemistry that should be further developed and that their approach to the matter is drastically different, at present ASTEC-IODE allows for a more comprehensive simulation of the containment iodine chemistry. More importantly, lack of maturity of these codes would potentially maximize the so-called user-effect, so that it would be highly recommendable to perform sensitivity studies around iodine chemistry aspects when calculating Source Term scenarios. Key aspects needed of further research are: gaseous iodine chemistry (absent in MELCOR), organic iodine chemistry and adsorption/desorption on/from containment surfaces. (authors)

  18. Computer code TRANS-ACE predicting for fire and explosion accidents in nuclear fuel reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Hitoshi; Nishio; Gunji; Naito, Yoshitaka

    1993-11-01

    The accident analysis code TRANS-ACE was developed to evaluate the safety of a ventilation system in a reprocessing plant in the event of fire and explosion accidents. TRANS-ACE can evaluate not only the integrity of a ventilation system containing HEPA filters but also the source term of radioactive materials for release out of a plant. It calculates the temperature, pressure, flow rate, transport of combustion materials and confinement of radioactive materials in the network of a ventilation system that might experience a fire or explosion accident. TRANS-ACE is based on the one-dimensional compressible thermo-fluid analysis code EVENT developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Calculational functions are added for the radioactive source term, heat transfer and radiation to cell and duct walls and HEPA filter integrity. For the second edition in the report, TRANS-ACE has been improved incorporating functions for the initial steady-state calculation to determine the flow rates, pressure drops and temperature in the network before an accident mode analysis. It is also improved to include flow resistance calculations of the filters and blowers in the network and to have an easy to use code by simplifying the input formats. This report is to prepare an explanation of the mathematical model for TRANS-ACE code and to be the user's manual. (author)

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing-season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  1. Dust resuspension and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Corradini, M.L.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Plasma surface interactions in tokamaks are known to create significant quantities of dust, which settles onto surfaces and accumulates in the vacuum vessel. In ITER, a loss of vacuum accident may result in the release of dust which will be radioactive and/or toxic, and provides increased surface area for chemical reactions or dust explosion. A new method of analysis has been developed for modeling dust resuspension and transport in loss of vacuum accidents. The aerosol dynamic equation is solved via the user defined scalar (UDS) capability in the commercial CFD code Fluent. Fluent solves up to 50 generic transport equations for user defined scalars, and allows customization of terms in these equations through user defined functions (UDF). This allows calculation of diffusion coefficients based on local flow properties, inclusion of body forces such as gravity and thermophoresis in the convection term, and user defined source terms. The code accurately reproduces analytical solutions for aerosol deposition in simple laminar flows with diffusion and gravitational settling. Models for dust resuspension are evaluated, and code results are compared to available resuspension data, including data from the Toroidal Dust Mobilization Experiment (TDMX) at the Idaho National Laboratory. Extension to polydisperse aerosols and inclusion of coagulation effects is also discussed. (orig.)

  2. Modeling and analyses of postulated UF6 release accidents in gaseous diffusion plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Keith, K.D.; Schmidt, R.W.; Carter, J.C.; Dyer, R.H.

    1995-10-01

    Computer models have been developed to simulate the transient behavior of aerosols and vapors as a result of a postulated accident involving the release of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) into the process building of a gaseous diffusion plant. UF 6 undergoes an exothermic chemical reaction with moisture (H 2 O) in the air to form hydrogen fluoride (HF) and radioactive uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ). As part of a facility-wide safety evaluation, this study evaluated source terms consisting of UO 2 F 2 as well as HF during a postulated UF 6 release accident in a process building. In the postulated accident scenario, ∼7900 kg (17,500 lb) of hot UF 6 vapor is released over a 5 min period from the process piping into the atmosphere of a large process building. UO 2 F 2 mainly remains as airborne-solid particles (aerosols), and HF is in a vapor form. Some UO 2 F 2 aerosols are removed from the air flow due to gravitational settling. The HF and the remaining UO 2 F 2 are mixed with air and exhausted through the building ventilation system. The MELCOR computer code was selected for simulating aerosols and vapor transport in the process building. MELCOR model was first used to develop a single volume representation of a process building and its results were compared with those from past lumped parameter models specifically developed for studying UF 6 release accidents. Preliminary results indicate that MELCOR predicted results (using a lumped formulation) are comparable with those from previously developed models

  3. Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

  4. Development and qualification of a thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling station blackout accident in PSB-VVER test facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saghafi, Mahdi [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher, E-mail: ghofrani@sharif.edu [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); D’Auria, Francesco [San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), University of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, San Piero a Grado, Pisa (Italy)

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A thermal-hydraulic nodalization for PSB-VVER test facility has been developed. • Station blackout accident is modeled with the developed nodalization in MELCOR code. • The developed nodalization is qualified at both steady state and transient levels. • MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in acceptable range. • Fast Fourier Transform Base Method is used to quantify accuracy of code predictions. - Abstract: This paper deals with the development of a qualified thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling Station Black-Out (SBO) accident in PSB-VVER Integral Test Facility (ITF). This study has been performed in the framework of a research project, aiming to develop an appropriate accident management support tool for Bushehr nuclear power plant. In this regard, a nodalization has been developed for thermal-hydraulic modeling of the PSB-VVER ITF by MELCOR integrated code. The nodalization is qualitatively and quantitatively qualified at both steady-state and transient levels. The accuracy of the MELCOR predictions is quantified in the transient level using the Fast Fourier Transform Base Method (FFTBM). FFTBM provides an integral representation for quantification of the code accuracy in the frequency domain. It was observed that MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in the acceptable range. In addition, the influence of different nodalizations on MELCOR predictions was evaluated and quantified using FFTBM by developing 8 sensitivity cases with different numbers of control volumes and heat structures in the core region and steam generator U-tubes. The most appropriate case, which provided results with minimum deviations from the experimental data, was then considered as the qualified nodalization for analysis of SBO accident in the PSB-VVER ITF. This qualified nodalization can be used for modeling of VVER-1000 nuclear power plants when performing SBO accident analysis by MELCOR code.

  5. Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1981-01-01

    Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

  6. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequential techniques, epidemiological techniques and systemic techniques, where the marine accidents are included in the epidemiological technique. This study compares the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART methodology and the 4M Overturned Pyramid (MOP model, which are applied to assess marine accidents. Furthermore, the MOP model can effectively describe the relationships of other factors which affect the accidents; whereas, the HEART methodology is only focused on human factors.

  7. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  8. A Comparative analysis for control rod drop accident in RETRAN DNB and CETOP DNB Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chang Keun; Kim, Yo Han; Ha, Sang Jun

    2009-01-01

    In Korea, the nuclear industries such as fuel manufacturer, the architect engineer and the utility, have been using the methodologies and codes of vendors, such as Westinghouse(WH), Combustion Engineering, for the safety analyses of nuclear power plants. Consequently the industries have kept up the many organizations to operate the methodologies and to maintain the codes for each vendor. It may occur difficulty to improve the safety analyses efficiency and technology related. So, the necessity another of methodologies and code systems applicable to Non- LOCA, beyond design basis accident and performance analyses for all types of pressurized water reactor(PWR) has been raised. Due to the above reason, the Korea Electric Power Research Institute(KEPRI) had decided to develop the new safety analysis code system for Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plants in Korea. As the first requirement, the best-estimate codes were required for applicable wider application area and realistic behavior prediction of power plants with various and sophisticated functions. After the investigation for few candidates, RETRAN-3D has been chosen as a system analysis code. As a part of the feasibility estimation for the methodology and code system, CRD(Control Rod Drop) accident which an event of Non-LOCA accidents for Uljin units 3 and 4 and Yonggwang 1 and 2 was selected to verify the feasibility of the methodology using the RETRAN-3D. In this paper, RETRAN DNB Model and CETOP DNB Model were analyzed by using comparative method

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C; Johnson, J.D; Rollstin, J.A; Shiver, A.W; Sprung, J.L

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

  10. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  11. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  12. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs

  13. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  14. The importance of trajectory modelling in accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.A.; Williams, J.A.; Hill, M.D.

    1988-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used at present or probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are linear: they take account of the wind speed but not the direction after the first hour. Therefore, the trajectory model is a more realistic description of the cloud's behaviour. However, the extra complexity means that the computing costs increase. This is an important factor for the MARIA code which is intended to be run on computers of varying power. The numbers of early effects predicted by a linear model and a trajectory model in a probabilistic risk assessment were compared to see which model should be preferred. The trajectory model predicted about 25% fewer expected early deaths and 30% more people evacuated than the linear model. However, the trajectory model took about ten times longer to calculate its results. The choice between the two models may depend on the speed of the computer available

  15. Health effect predictions from the Chernobyl accident for the Bulgarian population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, G.

    1992-01-01

    Contamination of Bulgaria's territory from atmospheric transfer of radioactive products released by the disrupted Chernobylsk reactor is discussed. The mean effective doses derived are given. To predict health implications for the population use was made of the risk coefficients and approaches proposed in ICRP Publication 60 (1990). As regards stochastic effects, estimations indicated: 1) cancer with fatal outcome: a total of 363 cases occurring over 50 to 70 years (the lifetime of a generation); 2) nonfatal (curable) cancer: a total of 107 cases; 3) serious heritable effects: a total of 80 cases. Calculations of radiation doses involved two major assumptions: at the time of the accident people were continuously staying at their permanent place of residence; they were mostly consuming food of local origin. The predicted health consequences are of a probabilistic nature and serve to make comparative evaluations with other sources of radiation exposure, and as guides for epidemiologic studies. It is such studies that will enable to evaluate the harm actually incurred at the time of Chernobyl accident. (author)

  16. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion

  17. Development of a parametric containment event tree model for a severe BWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1995-04-01

    A containment event tree (CET) is built for analysis of severe accidents at the TVO boiling water reactor (BWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to correspond to new research results. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting, and are focused mainly on the use and effects of the dedicated severe accident management (SAM) systems. Severe accident progression from eight plant damage states (PDS), involving different pre-core-damage accident evolution, is examined, but the inclusion of their relative or absolute probabilities, by integration with Level 1, is deferred to integral safety assessments. (33 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.).

  18. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  19. Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

    2018-04-01

    In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

  20. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  1. Modeling of in-vessel fission product release including fuel morphology effects for severe accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, K.Y.

    1989-10-01

    A new in-vessel fission product release model has been developed and implemented to perform best-estimate calculations of realistic source terms including fuel morphology effects. The proposed bulk mass transfer correlation determines the product of fission product release and equiaxed grain size as a function of the inverse fuel temperature. The model accounts for the fuel-cladding interaction over the temperature range between 770 K and 3000 K in the steam environment. A separate driver has been developed for the in-vessel thermal hydraulic and fission product behavior models that were developed by the Department of Energy for the Modular Accident Analysis Package (MAAP). Calculational results of these models have been compared to the results of the Power Burst Facility Severe Fuel Damage tests. The code predictions utilizing the mass transfer correlation agreed with the experimentally determined fractional release rates during the course of the heatup, power hold, and cooldown phases of the high temperature transients. Compared to such conventional literature correlations as the steam oxidation model and the NUREG-0956 correlation, the mass transfer correlation resulted in lower and less rapid releases in closer agreement with the on-line and grab sample data from the Severe Fuel Damage tests. The proposed mass transfer correlation can be applied for best-estimate calculations of fission products release from the UO 2 fuel in both nominal and severe accident conditions. 15 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  2. BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.; Woolstenhulme, Nicolas E.; Ban, Heng; Wachs, Daniel M.

    2016-09-01

    In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure of the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.

  3. Development of A Methodology for Assessing Various Accident Management Strategies Using Decision Tree Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Nam Yeong; Kim, Jin Tae; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) analysis is to evaluate operational accidents in full power and low power operation by using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) technologies. The awareness of the importance of ASP analysis has been on rise. The methodology for ASP analysis has been developed in Korea, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has managed KINS-ASP program since it was developed. In this study, we applied ASP analysis into operational accidents in full power and low power operation to quantify CCDP (Conditional Core Damage Probability). To reflect these 2 cases into PRA model, we modified fault trees and event trees of the existing PRA model. Also, we suggest the ASP regulatory system in the conclusion. In this study, we reviewed previous studies for ASP analysis. Based on it, we applied it into operational accidents in full power and low power operation. CCDP of these 2 cases are 1.195E-06 and 2.261E-03. Unlike other countries, there is no regulatory basis of ASP analysis in Korea. ASP analysis could detect the risk by assessing the existing operational accidents. ASP analysis can improve the safety of nuclear power plant by detecting, reviewing the operational accidents, and finally removing potential risk. Operator have to notify regulatory institute of operational accident before operator takes recovery work for the accident. After follow-up accident, they have to check precursors in data base to find similar accident.

  4. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  5. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season

  6. Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

  7. Statistical modelling of the frequency and severity of road accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær

    -reporting. The problem of under-reporting is not unique for traffic accidents as severe under-reporting is a challenge in many other fields of incident reporting. In other incidents fields with intended or unintended harm, research has investigated the behavioural reasons for why people choose to report an incident......Under-reporting of traffic accidents is a well-discussed subject in traffic safety and it is well-known that the degree of under-reporting of traffic accidents is quite high in many countries. Nevertheless, very little literature has been made to investigate what causes the high degree of under...... on the service quality within the police none have looked at the service quality specific for the handling of traffic accidents.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to investigate the extent of under-reporting of traffic accidents in Denmark and trace the under-reporting systematically. As something new...

  8. Fuel models and results from the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS TMI-2 accident calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwegler, E.C.; Maudlin, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    A brief description of several fuel models used in the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS analysis of the TMI-2 accident is presented, and some of the significant fuel-rod behavior results from this analysis are given. Peak fuel-rod temperatures, oxidation heat production, and embrittlement and failure behavior calculated for the TMI-2 accident are discussed. Other aspects of fuel behavior, such as cladding ballooning and fuel-cladding eutectic formation, were found not to significantly affect the accident progression

  9. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the third in a series of five papers describing the IDAC (Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context) model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper discusses the modeling components and their process rules. An operator's problem-solving process is divided into three types: information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision-making (D), and action execution (A). Explicit and context-dependent behavior rules for each type of operator are developed in the form of tables, and logical or mathematical relations. These regulate the process and activities of each of the three types of response. The behavior rules are developed for three generic types of operator: Decision Maker, Action Taker, and Consultant. This paper also provides a simple approach to calculating normalized probabilities of alternative behaviors given a context

  10. Modelling of RPV lower head under core melt severe accident condition using OpenFOAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madokoro, Hiroshi; Kretzschmar, Frank; Miassoedov, Alexei

    2017-01-01

    Although six years have been passed since the tragic severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi, still large uncertainties exist in modeling of core degradation and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure. It is extremely important to obtain a better understanding of complex phenomena in the lower head in order to improve accident management measures. The possible failure mode of reactor pressure vessel and its failure time are especially a matter of importance. Thermal behavior of the molten pool can be simulated by the Phase-change Effective Convectivity Model (PECM), which is a distributed-parameter model developed in the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden. The model calculates convective currents not using a pure CFD approach but based on so called “characteristic velocities” that are determined by empirical correlations depending on the geometry and physical properties of the molten pool. At the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the PECM has been implemented in the open-source CFD software OpenFOAM in order to receive detailed predictions of a core melt behavior in the RPV lower head under severe accident conditions. An advantage of using OpenFOAM is that it is very flexible to add and modify models and physical properties. In the current work, the solver is extended to couple PECM with a structure analysis model of the vessel wall. The model considers thermal expansion, plasticity, creep and damage. The model and physical properties are based on those implemented in ANSYS. Although the previous implementation had restriction that the amount of and geometry of the melt cannot be changed, our coupled model allows flexibility of the melt amount and geometry. The extended solver was used to simulate the LIVE-L1 and -L7V experiments and has demonstrated good prediction of the temperature distribution in the molten pool and heat flux distribution through the vessel wall. Regarding the vessel failure the model was applied to one of the FOREVER tests

  11. The causing model of accidents and preventing system of small mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, S.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y. [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2008-06-15

    From an analysis of data on fatal accidents in small coal mines in a southern region of China over a period of three years, the time and type of accidents was discussed by applying statistical methods. It is shown that accidents frequently occur at the end of spring and all through summer. Roof accidents and gas disasters constitute severe accidents and traffic accidents are also important. It was found that most accidents are caused by dangerous behaviour of personnel and the unsafe state of equipment combined with economic interest. The three-factor causing model (TFC model) was proposed. Unsafe behaviour is a direct cause influenced by staff and workers while the unsafe nature of equipment is an indirect cause of accidents influence by natural conditions and the level of technical equipment in the mines. A system of accident prevention in small coal collieries was established with the TFC model. In this, scientific management is an important factor. 13 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Prediction of fission product and aerosol behaviour during a postulated severe accident in a LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guentay, S.; Aeby, F.; Raguin, M.; Passalacqua, R.

    1990-02-01

    Lack of appropriate energy removal causes fuel elements in a reactor core to overheat and may eventually cause core to degrade. Fission products will be emitted from a degraded reactor core. Aerosols are generated when the vapours of various fuel and structural materials reach a cold environment and nucleate. In addition to the fission products release and aerosol generation taking place in the reactor vessel, some more fission products release and aerosol generation will occur when the molten core debris leaves the pressure vessel bottom head and comes in contact with the pedestal concrete floor. Fission products, if they are released to environment from the containment boundary, exert a great danger to public health. A source term is defined as the quantity, timing, and characteristics of the release of radionuclide material to the environment following a postulated severe accident. At PSI a considerable effort hase been spent in investigating and establishing a source term assessment methodology in order to predict the source term for a given Light Water Reactor (LWR) accident scenario. This report introduces the computer programs and the methods associated with the release of the fission products, generation of the aerosols and behaviour of the aerosols in LWR compartments used for a source term assessment analysis at PSI. (author) 4 figs., 5 tabs., 28 refs

  13. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook; Yoon, Ho Joon

    2016-01-01

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results

  14. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2016-05-15

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results.

  15. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  16. Modeling of pipe break accident in a district heating system using RELAP5 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliatka, A.; Valinčius, M.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability of a district heat supply system is a very important factor. However, accidents are inevitable and they occur due to various reasons, therefore it is necessary to have possibility to evaluate the consequences of possible accidents. This paper demonstrated the capabilities of developed district heating network model (for RELAP5 code) to analyze dynamic processes taking place in the network. A pipe break in a water supply line accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) heating network is presented in this paper. The results of this case study were used to demonstrate a possibility of the break location identification by pressure decrease propagation in the network. -- Highlights: ► Nuclear reactor accident analysis code RELAP5 was applied for accident analysis in a district heating network. ► Pipe break accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) district heating network has been analyzed. ► An innovative method of pipe break location identification by pressure-time data is proposed.

  17. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  18. Advanced surrogate model and sensitivity analysis methods for sodium fast reactor accident assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrel, A.; Marie, N.; De Lozzo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Within the framework of the generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors, the safety in case of severe accidents is assessed. From this statement, CEA has developed a new physical tool to model the accident initiated by the Total Instantaneous Blockage (TIB) of a sub-assembly. This TIB simulator depends on many uncertain input parameters. This paper aims at proposing a global methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques in order to perform a global sensitivity analysis of this TIB simulator. The objective is to identify the most influential uncertain inputs for the various TIB outputs involved in the safety analysis. The proposed statistical methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques enables to take into account the constraints on the TIB simulator outputs (positivity constraints) and to deal simultaneously with various outputs. To do this, a space-filling design is used and the corresponding TIB model simulations are performed. Based on this learning sample, an efficient constrained Gaussian process metamodel is fitted on each TIB model outputs. Then, using the metamodels, classical sensitivity analyses are made for each TIB output. Multivariate global sensitivity analyses based on aggregated indices are also performed, providing additional valuable information. Main conclusions on the influence of each uncertain input are derived. - Highlights: • Physical-statistical tool for Sodium Fast Reactors TIB accident. • 27 uncertain parameters (core state, lack of physical knowledge) are highlighted. • Constrained Gaussian process efficiently predicts TIB outputs (safety criteria). • Multivariate sensitivity analyses reveal that three inputs are mainly influential. • The type of corium propagation (thermal or hydrodynamic) is the most influential

  19. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

  20. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  1. Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1979-01-01

    A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

  2. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heams, T J [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, D A; Johns, N A; Mason, A [UKAEA, Winfrith, (England); Bixler, N E; Grimley, A J [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheatley, C J [UKAEA, Culcheth (England); Dickson, L W [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON (Canada); Osborn-Lee, I [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Domagala, P; Zawadzki, S; Rest, J [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Alexander, C A [Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States); Lee, R Y [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided.

  3. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  5. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  6. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  7. Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

  8. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  9. Theoretical Derivation of Simplified Evaluation Models for the First Peak of a Criticality Accident in Nuclear Fuel Solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Yasushi

    2000-01-01

    In a reprocessing facility where nuclear fuel solutions are processed, one could observe a series of power peaks, with the highest peak right after a criticality accident. The criticality alarm system (CAS) is designed to detect the first power peak and warn workers near the reacting material by sounding alarms immediately. Consequently, exposure of the workers would be minimized by an immediate and effective evacuation. Therefore, in the design and installation of a CAS, it is necessary to estimate the magnitude of the first power peak and to set up the threshold point where the CAS initiates the alarm. Furthermore, it is necessary to estimate the level of potential exposure of workers in the case of accidents so as to decide the appropriateness of installing a CAS for a given compartment.A simplified evaluation model to estimate the minimum scale of the first power peak during a criticality accident is derived by theoretical considerations only for use in the design of a CAS to set up the threshold point triggering the alarm signal. Another simplified evaluation model is derived in the same way to estimate the maximum scale of the first power peak for use in judging the appropriateness for installing a CAS. Both models are shown to have adequate margin in predicting the minimum and maximum scale of criticality accidents by comparing their results with French CRiticality occurring ACcidentally (CRAC) experimental data

  10. Validation of CFD modeling for VGM loss-of-forced-cooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wysocki, Aaron; Ahmed, Bobby; Charmeau, Anne; Anghaie, Samim

    2009-01-01

    Heat transfer and fluid flow in the VGM reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) was modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The VGM is a Russian modular-type high temperature helium-cooled reactor. In the reactor cavity, heat is removed from the pressure vessel wall through natural convection and radiative heat transfer to water-cooled vertical pipes lining the outer cavity concrete. The RCCS heat removal capability under normal operation and accident scenarios needs to be assessed. The purpose of the present study is to validate the use of CFD to model heat transfer in the VGM RCCS. Calculations were based on a benchmark problem which defines a two-dimensional temperature distribution on the pressure vessel outer wall for both Depressurized and Pressurized Loss-of-Forced Cooling events. A two-dimensional axisymmetric model was developed to determine the best numerical modeling approach. A grid sensitivity study for the air region showed that a 20 mm mesh size with a boundary layer giving a maximum y+ of 2.0 was optimal. Sensitivity analyses determined that the discrete ordinates radiative model, the k-omega turbulence model, and the ideal gas law gave the best combination for capturing radiation and natural circulation in the air cavity. A maximum RCCS pipe wall temperature of 62degC located 6 m from the top of the cavity was predicted. The model showed good agreement with previous results for both Pressurized and Depressurized Loss-of-Forced-Cooling accidents based on RCCS coolant outlet temperature, relative contributions of radiative and convective heat transfer, and RCCS heat load profiles. (author)

  11. Babcock and Wilcox revisions to CONTEMPT, computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsii, Y.H.

    1975-01-01

    The CONTEMPT computer program predicts the pressure-temperature response of a single-volume reactor building to a loss-of-coolant accident. The analytical model used for the program is described. CONTEMPT assumes that the loss-of-coolant accident can be separated into two phases; the primary system blowdown and reactor building pressurization. The results of the blowdown analysis serve as the boundary conditions and are input to the CONTEMPT program. Thus, the containment model is only concerned with the pressure and temperature in the reactor building and the temperature distribution through the reactor building structures. The program also calculates building leakage and the effects of engineered safety features such as reactor building sprays, decay heat coolers, sump coolers, etc. 11 references. (U.S.)

  12. Prediction of loop seal formation and clearing during small break loss of coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Suk Ho; Kim, Hho Jung

    1992-01-01

    Behavior of loop seal formation and clearing during small break loss of coolant accident is investigated using the RELAP5/MOD2 and /MOD3 codes with the test of SB-CL-18 of the LSTF(Large Scale Test Facility). The present study examines the thermal-hydraulic mechanisms responsible for early core uncovery includeing the manometric effect due to an asymmetric coolant holdup in the steam generator upflow and downflow side. The analysis with the RELAP5/ MOD2 demonstrates the main phenomena occuring in the depressurization transient including the loop seal formation and clearing with sufficient accuracy. Nevertheless, several differences regarding the evolution of phenomena and their timing have been pointed out in the base calculations. The RELAP5/MOD3 predicts overall phenomena, particularly the steam generator liquid holdup better than the RELAP5/MOD2. The nodalization study in the components of the steam generator U-tubes and the cross-over legs with the RELAP5/MOD3 results in good prediction of the loop seal clearing phenomena and their timing. (Author)

  13. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    OpenAIRE

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko; Ayu Ratnawinanda Lila

    2017-01-01

    Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD). System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate...

  14. Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

  15. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  16. Integral thermal model of severe accident dynamics of NPP with containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bol'shov, L.A.; Vasil'ev, A.D.; Kamennov, G.P.

    1991-01-01

    An analytical model of the interaction of reactor core remains with concrete during severe accidents at nuclear power plants is considered. Time dependences of side and radial concrete melting are plotted. Time dependences of containment atmosphere temperature and pressure during a severe accident at nuclear power plants are investigated analytically and numerically. The sensitivity of the results to the coefficient values in the problem is studied within the range of their concertainty. The Kaverna-1 is described. The results of modelling a severe NPP accident which have been obtained using the Kaverna-1 package are presented

  17. Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

    2014-01-01

    In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

  18. Modeling requirements for full-scope reactor simulators of fission-product transport during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, P.G.; Monson, P.R.; Mitchell, H.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes in the needs and requirements to properly and efficiently model fission product transport on full scope reactor simulators. Current LWR simulators can be easily adapted to model severe accident phenomena and the transport of radionuclides. Once adapted these simulators can be used as a training tool during operator training exercises for training on severe accident guidelines, for training on containment venting procedures, or as training tool during site wide emergency training exercises

  19. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmon, P.; Gonze, M.-A.; Mourlon, Ch.

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed. - Highlights: • Transfer of radiocesium atmospheric fallout in evergreen forests was modeled. • The model was tested using observations from Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. • Model predictions of canopy interception and depuration agree with measurements. • Unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall for the

  20. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Bezhenar, R.; Brown, J.; Cheng, J. -J.; Ćujić, M.; Dragović, S.; Duffa, C.; Fiévet, B.; Hosseini, A.; Jung, K. T.; Kamboj, S.; Keum, D. -K.; Kryshev, A.; LePoire, D.; Maderich, V.; Min, B. -I.; Periáñez, R.; Sazykina, T.; Suh, K. -S.; Yu, C.; Wang, C.; Heling, R.

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

  1. TIRE MODELS USED IN VEHICLE DYNAMIC APPLICATIONS AND THEIR USING IN VEHICLE ACCIDENT SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman ELDOĞAN

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Wheel model is very important in vehicle modelling, it is because the contact between vehicle and road is achieved by wheel. Vehicle models can be dynamic models which are used in vehicle design, they can also be models used in accident simulations. Because of the importance of subject, many studies including theoretical, experimental and mixed type have been carried out. In this study, information is given about development of wheel modelling and research studies and also use of these modellings in traffic accident simulations.

  2. Cannabis use predicts risks of heart failure and cerebrovascular accidents: results from the National Inpatient Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalla, Aditi; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram M; Gopalakrishnan, Akshaya; Figueredo, Vincent M

    2018-06-06

    Cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational purposes has been decriminalized in 28 states as of the 2016 election. In the remaining states, cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit drug. Cardiovascular effects of cannabis use are not well established due to a limited number of studies. We therefore utilized a large national database to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and events amongst patients with cannabis use. Patients aged 18-55 years with cannabis use were identified in the National Inpatient Sample 2009-2010 database using the Ninth Revision of International Classification of Disease code 304.3. Demographics, risk factors, and cardiovascular event rates were collected on these patients and compared with general population data. Prevalence of heart failure, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, and hypertension were significantly higher in patients with cannabis use. After multivariate regression adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, tobacco use, and alcohol use, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of both heart failure (odds ratio = 1.1, 1.03-1.18, P < 0.01) and CVA (odds ratio = 1.24, 1.14-1.34, P < 0.001). Cannabis use independently predicted the risks of heart failure and CVA in individuals 18-55 years old. With continued legalization of cannabis, potential cardiovascular effects and their underlying mechanisms need to be further investigated.

  3. Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

    1984-06-01

    This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

  4. ESTER: a new approach in modelling severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, I.; Jones, A.; Schmidt, F.

    1993-01-01

    ESTER is a set of codes for calculating phenomena during severe accidents in thermal reactors. It makes use of software tools that allow the data to be defined as a tree-structured data base and this data to be stored and retrieved by the code modules. The tools include generalized input and output routines that are independent of the particular code being used. Severe accident research codes are in a continual state of development and the structure of ESTER is such that modifications can be introduced easily and safely. The ESTER framework also facilitates the coupling together of codes. A preliminary version of ESTER containing a complete set of tools and a limited number of applications has already been released. 9 refs., 5 figs

  5. Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

  6. Modeling and measuring the effects of imprecision in accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Donghan

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents two approaches for evaluating the uncertainties inherent in accident management strategies. Current PRA methodology uses expert opinion in the assessment of rare event probabilities. The problem is that these probabilities may be difficult to estimate even though reasonable engineering judgement is applied. This occurs because expert opinion under incomplete knowledge and limited data is inherently imprecise. In this case, the concept of uncertainty about a probability value is both intuitively appealing and potentially useful. This analysis considers accident management as a decision problem (i.e. 'applying a strategy' vs. 'do nothing') and uses an influence diagram. Then, the analysis applies two approaches to evaluating imprecise node probabilities in the influence diagram: 'a fuzzy probability' and 'an interval-valued subjective probability'. For the propagation of subjective probabilities, the analysis uses a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. In case of fuzzy probabilities, fuzzy logic is applied to propagate them. We believe that these approaches can allow us to better understand uncertainties associated with severe accident management strategies, because they provide additional information regarding the implications of using imprecise input data

  7. Benchmarking of fast-running software tools used to model releases during nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devitt, P.; Viktorov, A., E-mail: Peter.Devitt@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca, E-mail: Alex.Viktorov@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Fukushima highlighted the importance of effective nuclear accident response. However, its complexity greatly impacted the ability to provide timely and accurate information to national and international stakeholders. Safety recommendations provided by different national and international organizations varied notably. Such differences can partially be attributed to different methods used in the initial assessment of accident progression and the amount of radioactivity release.Therefore, a comparison of methodologies was undertaken by the NEA/CSNI and its highlights are presented here. For this project, the prediction tools used by various emergency response organizations for estimating the source terms and public doses were examined. Those organizations that have a capability to use such tools responded to a questionnaire describing each code's capabilities and main algorithms. Then the project's participants analyzed five accident scenarios to predict the source term, dispersion of releases and public doses. (author)

  8. Development of simplified 1D and 2D models for studying a PWR lower head failure under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koundy, V.; Dupas, J.; Bonneville, H.; Cormeau, I.

    2005-01-01

    , a graph representing the time to failure as a function of the pressure level and the heat flux intensity has been determined; such information will be used in our probabilistic safety assessment and severe accident management analyses. Another motivation for the development of simplified models in IRSN is to obtain a simplified but well-predicting code that can then be integrated into integral severe accident computer codes. (authors)

  9. Models of fuel masses transition during second stage of the accident on Chernobyl NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarapon, A.

    2002-01-01

    In ISPE NASU of Ukraine are developed mathematical models and software, which allow to research the processes of fuel masses transition during the accident at ChNPP. We found out, that the main reason of accident on ChNPP is the happening in the reactor of crisis of heat exchange of the second sort, instead of the effect positive output of reactivity from displacers of rods of system of emergency protection, as is accepted in official version

  10. Accident Prediction Models for Akure – Ondo Carriageway, Ondo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    significant social and economic costs (typically between 1 and 3 percent of ... recently, emphasis has shifted to the application of statistical technique in planning and ... In another study, a logistic regression approach was used to examine a ...

  11. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E.

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors

  12. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul

    2015-01-01

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree

  13. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree.

  14. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors.

  15. A Novel Exercise Thermophysiology Comfort Prediction Model with Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Jia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Participation in a regular exercise program can improve health status and contribute to an increase in life expectancy. However, exercise accidents like dehydration, exertional heatstroke, syncope, and even sudden death exist. If these accidents can be analyzed or predicted before they happen, it will be beneficial to alleviate or avoid uncomfortable or unacceptable human disease. Therefore, an exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction model is needed. In this paper, coupling the thermal interactions among human body, clothing, and environment (HCE as well as the human body physiological properties, a human thermophysiology regulatory model is designed to enhance the human thermophysiology simulation in the HCE system. Some important thermal and physiological performances can be simulated. According to the simulation results, a human exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction method based on fuzzy inference system is proposed. The experiment results show that there is the same prediction trend between the experiment result and simulation result about thermophysiology comfort. At last, a mobile application platform for human exercise comfort prediction is designed and implemented.

  16. Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.

    1988-06-01

    Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.) [de

  17. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  18. Model for calculation of concentration and load on behalf of accidents with radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, L.A.M.; Heugten, W.H.H. van

    1987-04-01

    In the project 'Information- and calculation-system for disaster combatment', by order of the Dutch government, a demonstration model has been developed for a diagnosis system for accidents. In this demonstration a model is used to calculate the concentration- and dose-distributions caused by incidental emissions of limited time. This model is described in this report. 4 refs.; 2 figs.; 3 tabs

  19. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamrane, Y.; Wybo, J.-L.; Armand, P.

    2013-01-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. -- Highlights: • Study of atmospheric dispersion modeling use during nuclear accidents. • ADM tools were mainly used in a diagnosis approach during Chernobyl accident. • ADM tools were also used

  20. Severe accident modeling and offsite dose consequence evaluations for nuclear power plant emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, S.H.; Feng, T.S.; Huang, K.C. [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Wang, J.R. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Research, Longtan, Taiwan (China); Cheng, Y.H. [Industrial Tech. Res. Inst., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Shih, C., E-mail: ckshih@ess.nthu.edu.tw [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2011-07-01

    We have investigated the roles of Firewater Addition System and Passive Flooder in ABWR severe accidents, such as LOCA and SBO. The results are apparent that Firewater System is vital in the highly unlikely situation where all AC are lost. Also in this paper, we present EPZDose, an effective and faster-than-real time code for offsite dose consequences predictions and evaluations. Illustrations with the release from our severe accident scenario show friendly and informative user's interface for supporting decision makings in nuclear emergency situations. (author)

  1. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Y.H.J. [Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States) and Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)]. E-mail: yhc@umd.edu; Mosleh, A. [Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2007-08-15

    This is the fourth in a series of five papers describing the Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context (IDAC) operator response model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model has been developed to probabilistically predicts the responses of a nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper assesses the effects of the performance-influencing factors (PIFs) affecting the operators' problem-solving responses including information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision making (D), and action execution (A). Literature support and justifications are provided for the assessment on the influences of PIFs.

  2. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the fourth in a series of five papers describing the Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context (IDAC) operator response model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model has been developed to probabilistically predicts the responses of a nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper assesses the effects of the performance-influencing factors (PIFs) affecting the operators' problem-solving responses including information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision making (D), and action execution (A). Literature support and justifications are provided for the assessment on the influences of PIFs

  3. Application of the severe accident code ATHLET-CD. Modelling and evaluation of accident management measures (Project WASA-BOSS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilhelm, Polina; Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Schaefer, Frank [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Dresden (Germany). Div. Reactor Safety

    2016-07-01

    The improvement of the safety of nuclear power plants is a continuously on-going process. The analysis of transients and accidents is an important research topic, which significantly contributes to safety enhancements of existing power plants. In case of an accident with multiple failures of safety systems core uncovery and heat-up can occur. In order to prevent the accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, different accident management measures can be applied. Numerical analyses are used to investigate the accident progression and the complex physical phenomena during the core degradation phase, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of possible countermeasures in the preventive and mitigative domain [1, 2]. The presented analyses have been performed with the computer code ATHLET-CD developed by GRS [3, 4].

  4. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  5. Development on Dose Assessment Model of Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ju Yub; Kim, Ju Youl; Kim, Suk Hoon; Lee, Seung Hee; Yoon, Tae Bin [FNC Techology, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In order to support the emergency response system, the simulator for overseas nuclear accident is under development including source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion modeling and dose assessment. The simulator is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator). For the source-term estimation, design characteristics of each reactor type should be reflected into the model. Since there are a lot of reactor types in neighboring countries, the representative reactors of China, Japan and Taiwan have been selected and the source-term estimation models for each reactor have been developed, respectively. For the atmospheric dispersion modeling, Lagrangian particle model will be integrated into the simulator for the long range dispersion modeling in Northeast Asia region. In this study, the dose assessment model has been developed considering external and internal exposure. The dose assessment model has been developed as a part of the overseas nuclear accidents simulator which is named NANAS. It addresses external and internal pathways including cloudshine, groundshine and inhalation. Also, it uses the output of atmospheric dispersion model (i.e. the average concentrations of radionuclides in air and ground) and various coefficients (e.g. dose conversion factor and breathing rate) as an input. Effective dose and thyroid dose for each grid in the Korean Peninsula region are printed out as a format of map projection and chart. Verification and validation on the dose assessment model will be conducted in further study by benchmarking with the measured data of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident.

  6. Fast dose assessment models, parameters and code under accident conditions for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Z.Y.; Hu, E.B.; Meng, X.C.; Zhang, Y.; Yao, R.T.

    1993-01-01

    According to requirement of accident emergency plan for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, a Gaussian straight-line model was adopted for estimating radionuclide concentration in surface air. In addition, the effects of mountain body on atmospheric dispersion was considered. By combination of field atmospheric dispersion experiment and wind tunnel modeling test, necessary modifications have been done for some models and parameters. A computer code for assessment was written in Quick BASIC (V4.5) language. The radius of assessment region is 10 km and the code is applicable to early accident assessment. (1 tab.)

  7. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Lim, Dong Hyuk

    2012-01-01

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  8. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Dong Hyuk [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  9. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model, has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the total deposition of  137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations for dry- and wet deposition. The performance, compared to measurements, of using different combinations of two different wet deposition parameterizations and three different parameterizations of dry deposition has been evaluated, using different statistical tests. The best model performance, compared to measurements, is obtained when parameterizing the total deposition combined of a simple method for dry deposition and a subgrid-scale averaging scheme for wet deposition based on relative humidities. The same major conclusion is obtained for all the three different radioactive isotopes and using two different deposition measurement databases. Large differences are seen in the results obtained by using the two different parameterizations of wet deposition based on precipitation rates and relative humidities, respectively. The parameterization based on subgrid-scale averaging is, in all cases, performing better than the parameterization based on precipitation rates. This indicates that the in-cloud scavenging process is more important than the below cloud scavenging process for the submicron particles and that the precipitation rates are

  10. Modelling Reactivity-Initiated-Accident Experiments With Falcon And SCANAIR: A Comparison Exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, A.; Wallin, H.; Zimmermann, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    A critical assessment is made of the state-of-the-art fuel performance code FALCON in the context of selected Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) experiments from the CABRI REP Na series, and contrasts its predictions against those of the extensively benchmarked SCANAIR (Version 3.2) code. The thermal fields in the fuel and cladding, the clad mechanical deformation, and the Fission Gas Release (FGR) are adopted as 'Figures of Merit' by which to judge code performance. Particular attention is paid to the importance of fission-gas-induced clad deformation (which is modelled in SCANAIR, but not in FALCON), relative to that driven by the fuel thermal expansion (which is modelled by both codes). The thermal fields calculated by the codes are in good agreement with each other, especially during the initial stages of the transients --- the adiabatic phase. Larger discrepancies are observed at later times, and are due to the different models applied to calculate the gap conductance. FALCON predicts clad permanent deformations at the end of the transients with a maximum deviation from the experimental measurements of about 20%. Generally, the code always tends to underpredict the measurements. SCANAIR performs similarly, but grossly overpredicts the permanent clad strain for the case involving a very energetic pulse. The fission-gas-driven clad deformation is only relevant for very fast pulse energy injection cases, which are not prototypical of the RIA transients expected in PWRs. The FGR models in FALCON do not capture the mechanism of 'burst-release' in the RIA transients, having been developed for steady-state irradiation conditions. This also explains why they performed poorly when applied to the fast-transient cases analyzed here. In contrast, the FGR results from SCANAIR are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental results. (author)

  11. Experimental verification of dynamic radioecological models established after the Chernobyl reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, G.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.; Stocke, H.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    The experiments reported were carried out for a verification of existing, dynamic radioecological models, especially of the ECOSYS model. The database used for the verification covers the radioactivity concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137, I-131 measured after the Chernobyl reactor accident in foodstuffs and environmental samples, the results of field experiments on radionuclide translocation after foliar uptake or absorption by the roots of edible plants. The measured data were compared with the model predictions for the radionuclides under review. The Cs-134 and Cs-137 translocation factors which describe the redistribution of these radionuclides in the plant after foliar uptake were experimentally determined by a single sprinkling with Chernobyl rainwater, and were measured to be the following as a function of sprinkling time: winter wheat, 0.002-0.13; spring wheat, 0.003-0.09; winter rye, 0.002-0.27; barley, 0.002-0.04; potatoes, 0.05-0.35; carrots, 0.02-0.07; bush beans, 0.04-0.3; cabbage, 0.1-0.5. The weathering half-life of the radionuclides in lettuce was determined to be ten days. Transfer factors determined for root absorption of Cs-137 were measured to be an average of 0.002 for grains, 0.002 for potatoes, 0.004 for white cabbage, 0.003 for bush beans and carrots, and 0.007 for lettuce. There was an agreement between the ECOSYS model predictions and the measured radioactivity concentrations of the corresponding radionuclides. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.

    1985-01-01

    SAS4A is a new code system which has been designed for analyzing the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modeling the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel motion experiment analyses are also presented

  13. Diagnostic and prognostic system for identification of accident scenarios and prediction of 'source term' in nuclear power plants under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh; Gera, B.; Kumar, Mithilesh

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear power plant experiences a number of transients during its operations. These transients may be due to equipment failure, malfunctioning of process support systems etc. In such a situation, the plant may result in an abnormal state which is undesired. In case of such an undesired plant condition, the operator has to carry out diagnostic and corrective actions. When an event occurs starting from the steady state operation, instruments' readings develop a time dependent pattern and these patterns are unique with respect to the type of the particular event. Therefore, by properly selecting the plant process parameters, the transients can be distinguished. In this connection, a computer based tool known as Diagnostic and Prognostic System has been developed for identification of large pipe break scenarios in 220 MWe Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) and for prediction of expected 'Source Term' and consequence for a situation where Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) is not available or partially available. Diagnostic and Prognostic System is essentially a transient identification and expected source term forecasting system. The system is based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) that continuously monitors the plant conditions and identifies a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario quickly based on the reactor process parameter values. The system further identifies the availability of injection of ECCS and in case non-availability of ECCS, it can forecast expected 'Source Term'. The system is a support to plant operators as well as for emergency preparedness. The ANN is trained with a process parameter database pertaining to accident conditions and tested against blind exercises. In order to see the feasibility of implementing in the plant for real-time diagnosis, this system has been set up on a high speed computing facility and has been demonstrated successfully for LOCA scenarios. (author)

  14. Predictive factors for acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder after motor vehicle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaşan, Aziz; Guzel, Aslan; Tamam, Yusuf; Ozkan, Mustafa

    2009-01-01

    Since traffic accidents are more common in developing countries than in developed countries, we aimed to investigate the association of several factors with the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traffic accidents. In the study,95 participants with injuries from traffic accidents were evaluated at 4 different times: in the beginning, and after 3, 6 and 12 months. During the first evaluation, 41.1% (39) of our participants had acute stress disorder (ASD). It was found that lower perceived social support (OR = 0.0908, 95% CI = 0.834-0.989, p = 0.027) and higher peritraumatic dissociative experience scores (OR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.170-1.516, p accident, we found PTSD affected 29.8, 23.1 and 17.9% of the participants, respectively. Although limitations at work and in social life after a traffic accident were not related to PTSD at 3 months (OR = 122.43, 95% CI = 0.000, p = 0.999) or at 6 months (OR = 63.438, 95% CI = 0.529-76.059, p = 0.089), limitations at work and in social life were predictors of PTSD at 12 months (OR = 155.514, 95% CI = 2.321-104.22, p = 0.019). The persistence of PTSD at the 12-month evaluation is related to ASD, limitations in work and social life, and lower social support scores. In developing countries like Turkey, long-term PTSD is commonly seen after traffic accidents. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Model to predict the radiological consequences of transportation of radioactive material through an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.; DuCharme, A.R.; Finley, N.N.

    1977-01-01

    A model has been developed which predicts the radiological consequences of the transportation of radioactive material in and around urban environments. This discussion of the model includes discussion of the following general topics: health effects from radiation exposure, urban area characterization, computation of dose resulting from normal transportation, computation of dose resulting from vehicular accidents or sabotage, and preliminary results and conclusions

  16. Advanced evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic during an accident in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    Evacuation of people located inside the enclosed area of an LNG terminal is a complex problem, especially considering that accidents involving LNG are potentially very hazardous. In order to create an evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic, extensive influence must be generated from safety analyses. A very important moment in the optimal functioning of an evacuation model is the creation of a database which incorporates all input indicators. The output result is the creation of a safety evacuation route which is active at the moment of the accident. (Author)

  17. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoval, A.V.; Kalvand, Ali.; Kazachkov, I.V.

    2013-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS) against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks' distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of other PPS's conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents

  18. Risk assessment model for nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing; Tang Huaqing; Zhang Yinghua; Zhang Limin

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure,and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure. (authors)

  19. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Konoval

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks’ distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of oth-er PPS’s conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents.

  20. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bui, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance

  1. Cost-effectiveness analysis of countermeasures using accident consequence assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.

    1987-01-01

    In the event of a large release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, protective actions for the population potentially affected must be implemented. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be useful to define the countermeasures and the criteria needed to implement them. This paper shows the application of Accident Consequence Assessment (ACA) models to cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency and long-term countermeasures, making use of the different relationships between dose, contamination levels, affected areas and population distribution, included in such a model. The procedure is illustrated with the new Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS 1.3), developed at Sandia National Laboratories (USA), for a fixed accident scenario. Different alternative actions are evaluated with regard to their radiological and economical impact, searching for an 'optimum' strategy. (author)

  2. Illustration interface of accident progression in PWR by quick inference based on multilevel flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, H.; Ouyang, J.; Niwa, Y.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a new accident inference method is proposed by using a goal and function oriented modeling method called Multilevel Flow Model focusing on explaining the causal-consequence relations and the objective of automatic action in the accident of nuclear power plant. Users can easily grasp how the various plant parameters will behave and how the various safety facilities will be activated sequentially to cope with the accident until the nuclear power plants are settled into safety state, i.e., shutdown state. The applicability of the developed method was validated by the conduction of internet-based 'view' experiment to the voluntary respondents, and in the future, further elaboration of interface design and the further introduction of instruction contents will be developed to make it become the usable CAI system. (authors)

  3. Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

    2017-10-01

    Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

  4. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.; Kalimullah; Hill, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    The SAS4A code system has been designed for the analysis of the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modelong the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel relocation are emphasized. 12 refs

  5. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  6. [Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

  7. Development of a fission product transport module predicting the behavior of radiological materials during sever accidents in a nuclear power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyung Seok; Rhee, Bo Wook; Kim, Dong Ha [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-09-15

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is developing a fission product transport module for predicting the behavior of radioactive materials in the primary cooling system of a nuclear power plant as a separate module, which will be connected to a severe accident analysis code, Core Meltdown Progression Accident Simulation Software (COMPASS). This fission product transport (COMPASS-FP) module consists of a fission product release model, an aerosol generation model, and an aerosol transport model. In the fission product release model there are three submodels based on empirical correlations, and they are used to simulate the fission product gases release from the reactor core. In the aerosol generation model, the mass conservation law and Raoult's law are applied to the mixture of vapors and droplets of the fission products in a specified control volume to find the generation of the aerosol droplet. In the aerosol transport model, empirical correlations available from the open literature are used to simulate the aerosol removal processes owing to the gravitational settling, inertia impaction, diffusiophoresis, and thermophoresis. The COMPASS-FP module was validated against Aerosol Behavior Code Validation and Evaluation (ABCOVE-5) test performed by Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory for comparing the prediction and test data. The comparison results assuming a non-spherical aerosol shape for the suspended aerosol mass concentration showed a good agreement with an error range of about ±6%. It was found that the COMPASS-FP module produced the reasonable results of the fission product gases release, the aerosol generation, and the gravitational settling in the aerosol removal processes for ABCOVE-5. However, more validation for other aerosol removal models needs to be performed.

  8. Model for predicting the frequency of broken rails

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vesković

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Broken rails can cause train delays, trains cancelations and, unfortunately, they are common causes of accidents. This affects planning of a resources, budget and organization of railway track maintenance. Planning of railway track maintenance cannot be done without an estimation of number of rails that will be replaced due to the broken rail incidents. There are many factors that influence broken rails and the most common are: rail age, annual gross tonnage, degree of curve and temperature in the time of breakage. The fuzzy logic model uses acquired data as input variables to predict the frequency of broken rails for the certain rail types on some Sections.

  9. Modelling of fission product release behavior from HTR spherical fuel elements under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.; Mueller, D.

    1991-01-01

    Computer codes for modelling the fission product release behavior of spherical fuel elements for High Temperature Reactors (HTR) have been developed for the purpose of being used in risk analyses for HTRs. An important part of the validation and verification procedure for these calculation models is the theoretical investigation of accident simulation experiments which have been conducted in the KueFA test facility in the Hot Cells at KFA. The paper gives a presentation of the basic modeling and the calculational results of fission product release from modern German HTR fuel elements in the temperature range 1600-1800 deg. C using the TRISO coated particle failure model PANAMA and the diffusion model FRESCO. Measurements of the transient release behavior for cesium and strontium and of their concentration profiles after heating have provided informations about diffusion data in the important retention barriers of the fuel: silicon carbide and matrix graphite. It could be shown that the diffusion coefficients of both cesium and strontium in silicon carbide can significantly be reduced using a factor in the range of 0.02 - 0.15 compared to older HTR fuel. Also in the development of fuel element graphite, a tendency towards lower diffusion coefficients for both nuclides can be derived. Special heating tests focussing on the fission gases and iodine release from the matrix contamination have been evaluated to derive corresponding effective diffusion data for iodine in fuel element graphite which are more realistic than the iodine transport data used so far. Finally, a prediction of krypton and cesium release from spherical fuel elements under heating conditions will be given for fuel elements which at present are irradiated in the FRJ2, Juelich, and which are intended to be heated at 1600/1800 deg. C in the KueFA furnace in near future. (author). 7 refs, 11 figs

  10. Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1982-01-01

    Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Taesung

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

  12. Sensitivity analysis for CORSOR models simulating fission product release in LOFT-LP-FP-2 severe accident experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Sahand Univ. of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    This paper deals with simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LP-FP-2 experiment of LOFT test facility. The test facility simulates the major components and system response of a pressurized water reactor during a LOCA. MELCOR code is used for predicting the fission product release from the core fuel elements in LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for different CORSOR models simulating release of fission products in severe accident calculations for nuclear power plants. The calculated values for the fission product release are compared under different modeling options to the experimental data available from the experiment. In conclusion, the performance of 8 CORSOR modeling options is assessed for available modeling alternatives in the code structure.

  13. FIRAC: a computer code to predict fire-accident effects in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolstad, J.W.; Krause, F.R.; Tang, P.K.; Andrae, R.W.; Martin, R.A.; Gregory, W.S.

    1983-01-01

    FIRAC is a medium-sized computer code designed to predict fire-induced flows, temperatures, and material transport within the ventilating systems and other airflow pathways in nuclear-related facilities. The code is designed to analyze the behavior of interconnected networks of rooms and typical ventilation system components. This code is one in a family of computer codes that is designed to provide improved methods of safety analysis for the nuclear industry. The structure of this code closely follows that of the previously developed TVENT and EVENT codes. Because a lumped-parameter formulation is used, this code is particularly suitable for calculating the effects of fires in the far field (that is, in regions removed from the fire compartment), where the fire may be represented parametrically. However, a fire compartment model to simulate conditions in the enclosure is included. This model provides transport source terms to the ventilation system that can affect its operation and in turn affect the fire

  14. [Guilty victims: a model to perpetuate impunity for work-related accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia; Iguti, Aparecida Mari; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz

    2004-01-01

    This article analyzes reports and data from the investigation of severe and fatal work-related accidents by the Regional Institute of Criminology in Piracicaba, São Paulo State, Brazil. Some 71 accident investigation reports were analyzed from 1998, 1999, and 2000. Accidents involving machinery represented 38.0% of the total, followed by high falls (15.5%), and electric shocks (11.3%). The reports conclude that 80.0% of the accidents are caused by "unsafe acts" committed by workers themselves, while the lack of safety or "unsafe conditions" account for only 15.5% of cases. Victims are blamed even in situations involving high risk in which not even minimum safety conditions are adopted, thus favoring employers' interests. Such conclusions reflect traditional reductionist explanatory models, in which accidents are viewed as simple, unicausal phenomena, generally focused on slipups and errors by the workers themselves. Despite criticism in recent decades from the technical and academic community, this concept is still hegemonic, thus jeopardizing the development of preventive policies and the improvement of work conditions.

  15. [Prevention of occupational accidents with biological material as per Green and Kreuter Model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manetti, Marcela Luisa; da Costa, João Carlos Souza; Marziale, Maria Helena Palucci; Trovó, Marli Elisa

    2006-03-01

    This study aimed at diagnosing the occurrence of occupational accidents deriving from exposition to biological substance among workers of a hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, analyzing the adopted safety measures and elaborating a flowchart of preventive actions according to the Health Promotion Model by Green and Kreuter. It is an exploratory study with data collected electronically from the website REPAT - Electronic Network for the Prevention of Occupational Accidents with biological substances. The strategy used by the hospital did not reduce the injures. Results were used to elaborate a flowchart of preventive actions in order to improve the workers' quality of life.

  16. Code package {open_quotes}SVECHA{close_quotes}: Modeling of core degradation phenomena at severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veshchunov, M.S.; Kisselev, A.E.; Palagin, A.V. [Nuclear Safety Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation)] [and others

    1995-09-01

    The code package SVECHA for the modeling of in-vessel core degradation (CD) phenomena in severe accidents is being developed in the Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Science (NSI RAS). The code package presents a detailed mechanistic description of the phenomenology of severe accidents in a reactor core. The modules of the package were developed and validated on separate effect test data. These modules were then successfully implemented in the ICARE2 code and validated against a wide range of integral tests. Validation results have shown good agreement with separate effect tests data and with the integral tests CORA-W1/W2, CORA-13, PHEBUS-B9+.

  17. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  18. Improvement on models associated with LOCA and loss of RHR accidents during shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, W. P.; Chung, Y. J.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, K. D.; Lee, S. J.; Jung, J. J.; Ha, G. S.; Son, Y. S.; Chung, B. D.; Han, D. H.; Lee, Y. J.; Hwang, T. S.; Lee, S. Y.; Park, C. Y.; Choi, H. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Choi, J. H.; Ban, C. H.; Bae, G. H.

    1997-07-01

    The characteristics of the best estimate codes available in Korea have been studied through literature surveys for the reliability on LOCA analyses and then, a feasibility study on reduction of capacities of existing safety systems in YGN 3/4 have been carried out using the codes. Since it has been expected to adopt DVI + 4 -Train HPSI in the next generation reactor, the core uncoveries under one DVI line break and 6 cold leg break, which is a requirement for advance d reactor by EPRI, in addition to LBLOCA for reduction effect of SIT capacity, have been analyzed. Finally, an effort on finding the way how the system could be simplified, has been made through the analysis of SIT injection characteristics. On the other hand, the best estimate methodology consisting of uncertainties of the code itself, bias, and application have been developed first and quantification of the uncertainty has been made the case of KORI unit 3 afterward. The prediction capabilities of the best estimate codes and major physical models on the accident under loss of RHR during shutdown have been assessed suing the large scale experimental data delivered from France and then, the assessed codes have been used to provide essential data required for description of operation procedures in YGN 3/4. (author). 64 refs., 45 figs

  19. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  20. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  1. Prediction of mass fraction of agglomerated debris in a LWR severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudinov, P.; Davydov, M.

    2011-01-01

    Ex-vessel termination of accident progression in Swedish type Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) is contingent upon efficacy of melt fragmentation and solidification in a deep pool of water below reactor vessel. When liquid melt reaches the bottom of the pool it can create agglomerated debris and “cake” regions that increase hydraulic resistance of the bed and affect coolability of the bed. This paper discusses development and application of a conservative-mechanistic approach to quantify mass fractions of agglomerated debris. Experimental data from the DEFOR-A (Debris Bed Formation and Agglomeration) tests with high superheat of binary oxidic simulant material melt is used for validation of the methods. Application of the approach to plant accident analysis suggests that melt superheat has less significant influence on agglomeration of the debris than jet penetration depth. The paper also discusses the impact of the uncertainty in the jet disintegration and penetration behavior on the agglomeration mode map. (author)

  2. Containment severe accident thermohydraulic phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frid, W.

    1991-08-01

    This report describes and discusses the containment accident progression and the important severe accident containment thermohydraulic phenomena. The overall objective of the report is to provide a rather detailed presentation of the present status of phenomenological knowledge, including an account of relevant experimental investigations and to discuss, to some extent, the modelling approach used in the MAAP 3.0 computer code. The MAAP code has been used in Sweden as the main tool in the analysis of severe accidents. The dependence of the containment accident progression and containment phenomena on the initial conditions, which in turn are heavily dependent on the in-vessel accident progression and phenomena as well as associated uncertainties, is emphasized. The report is in three parts dealing with: * Swedish reactor containments, the severe accident mitigation programme in Sweden and containment accident progression in Swedish PWRs and BWRs as predicted by the MAAP 3.0 code. * Key non-energetic ex-vessel phenomena (melt fragmentation in water, melt quenching and coolability, core-concrete interaction and high temperature in containment). * Early containment threats due to energetic events (hydrogen combustion, high pressure melt ejection and direct containment heating, and ex-vessel steam explosions). The report concludes that our understanding of the containment severe accident progression and phenomena has improved very significantly over the parts ten years and, thereby, our ability to assess containment threats, to quantify uncertainties, and to interpret the results of experiments and computer code calculations have also increased. (au)

  3. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  4. FIRAC - a computer code to predict fire accident effects in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolstad, J.W.; Foster, R.D.; Gregory, W.S.

    1983-01-01

    FIRAC is a medium-sized computer code designed to predict fire-induced flows, temperatures, and material transport within the ventilating systems and other airflow pathways in nuclear-related facilities. The code is designed to analyze the behavior of interconnected networks of rooms and typical ventilation system components. This code is one in a family of computer codes that is designed to provide improved methods of safety analysis for the nuclear industry. The structure of this code closely follows that of the previously developed TVENT and EVENT codes. Because a lumped-parameter formulation is used, this code is particularly suitable for calculating the effects of fires in the far field (that is, in regions removed from the fire compartment), where the fire may be represented parametrically. However, a fire compartment model to simulate conditions in the enclosure is included. This model provides transport source terms to the ventilation system that can affect its operation and in turn affect the fire. A basic material transport capability that features the effects of convection, deposition, entrainment, and filtration of material is included. The interrelated effects of filter plugging, heat transfer, gas dynamics, and material transport are taken into account. In this paper the authors summarize the physical models used to describe the gas dynamics, material transport, and heat transfer processes. They also illustrate how a typical facility is modeled using the code

  5. Development of the model for the stress calculation of fuel assembly under accident load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Il Kon

    1993-01-01

    The finite element model for the stress calculation in guide thimbles of a fuel assembly (FA) under seismic and loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) load is developed. For the stress calculation of FA under accident load, at first the program MAIN is developed to select the worst bending mode shaped FA from core model. And then the model for the stress calculation of FA is developed by means of the finite element code. The calculated results of program MAIN are used as the kinematic constraints of the finite element model of a FA. Compared the calculated results of the stiffness of the finite element model of FA with the test results they have good agreements. (Author)

  6. Decision model support of severity of injury traffic accident victims care by SAMU 192

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rackynelly Alves Sarmento Soares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents produce high morbidity and mortality in several countries, including Brazil. The initial care to victims of accidents, by a specialized team, has tools for evaluating the severity of trauma, which guide the priorities. This study aimed to develop a decision model applied to pre-hospital care, using the Abbreviated Injury Scale, to define the severity of the injury caused by the AT, as well to describe the features of accidents and their victims, occurred in Joao Pessoa, Paraiba. This is a descriptive epidemiological investigation, sectional, which analyzed all victims of traffic accidents attended by the SAMU 192, João Pessoa-PB, in January, April and June 2010. Data were collected in the medical regulation sheets of SAMU 192. Most of victims were male (76%, aged between 20 and 39 years (60%. Most injuries were classified as AIS1 (62.5%. The model of decision support implemented was the decision tree that managed to correctly classify 95.98% of the severity of injuries. By this model, it was possible to extract 29 rules of gravity classification of injury, which may be used for decision-making teams of the SAMU 192.

  7. Babcock and Wilcox revisions to CONTEMPT, computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsii, Y.H.

    1976-06-01

    The CONTEMPT computer program predicts the pressure-temperature response of a single-volume reactor building to a loss-of-coolant accident. The report describes the analytical model used for the program. CONTEMPT assumes that the loss-of-coolant accident can be separated into two phases; the primary system blowdown and reactor building pressurization. The results of the blowdown analysis serve as the boundary conditions and are input to the CONTEMPT program. Thus, the containment model is only concerned with the pressure and temperature in the reactor building and the temperature distribution through the reactor building structures. The user is required to input the description of the discharge of coolant, the boiling of residual water by reactor decay heat, the superheating of steam passing through the core, and metal-water reactions. The reactor building is separated into liquid and vapor regions. Each region is in thermal equilibrium itself, but the two may not be in thermal equilibrium; the liquid and gaseous regions may have different temperatures. The reactor building is represented as consisting of several heat-conducting structures whose thermal behavior can be described by the one-dimensional multi-region heat conduction equation. The program also calculates building leakage and the effects of engineered safety features such as reactor building sprays, decay heat coolers, sump coolers, etc

  8. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-01

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  9. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-15

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  10. A fast prediction of plant behaviour in the steam generator tube rupture accident at Mihama unit 2 using a similar case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gofuku, Akio; Tanaka, Yutaka; Numoto, Atsushi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu.

    1996-01-01

    It is important to predict fast and accurately future trend of behaviour of a nuclear power plant in an emergency situation. The case-based reasoning is a strong tool for this purpose because it solves a problem by effectively using past similar cases. This study investigates the applicability of the case-based reasoning as a fast prediction technique of plant behaviour. This paper discusses a prediction of initial plant behaviour in the steam generator tube rupture accident happened at the Mihama nuclear power plant unit 2 by using the behaviour data of an accident of the same type happened at Prairie Island nuclear power plant unit 1. The prediction results coincide well with the reported plant behaviour although there are several important differences in the detailed plant specifications and operator actions between the two SGTR accidents. (author)

  11. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  12. AN EFFECTIVE RISK-PREVENTIVE MODEL PROPOSAL FOR OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT SHIPYARDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozge Acuner

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to the statistics of occupational accidents, it is observed that the number of accidents occurred in shipbuilding industry is high and the rate of deaths and serious injuries among these accidents is higher than in other industries. However, the number of the studies to prevent these accidents in both industrial and scientific practices is considerably low. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an efficient risk preventive model in accordance with occupational health and safety regulations for industrial organizations. The approach proposed in this study differs from those described in the literature, because it is based on fuzzy set theory in order to cope with uncertainties on probability and severity definitions in terms of occupational health and safety. Furthermore, in this paper, risk severity is considered in terms of harm to worker, harm to environment, and harm to hardware, whereas in the literature, risk severity is generally considered solely in terms of only harm to worker. Then, risk magnitude is obtained by utilizing fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is applied to a shipyard located in the Marmara Region in order to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  13. Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirkland, Karen Vierow [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Ross, Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beeny, Bradley [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Luthman, Nicholas [Texas A& M Engineering Experiment Station, College Station, TX (United States); Strater, Zachary [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2017-12-23

    The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that the system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.

  14. Modelling of HTR Confinement Behaviour during Accidents Involving Breach of the Helium Pressure Boundary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Fontanet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of HTRs requires the performance of a thorough safety study, which includes accident analyses. Confinement building performance is a key element of the system since the behaviour of aerosol and attached fission products within the building is of an utmost relevance in terms of the potential source term to the environment. This paper explores the available simulation capabilities (ASTEC and CONTAIN codes and illustrates the performance of a postulated HTR vented confinement under prototypical accident conditions by a scoping study based on two accident sequences characterized by Helium Pressure Boundary breaches, a small and a large break. The results obtained indicate that both codes predict very similar thermal-hydraulic responses of the confinement both in magnitude and timing. As for the aerosol behaviour, both codes predict that most of the inventory coming into the confinement is eventually depleted on the walls and only about 1% of the aerosol dust is released to the environment. The crosscomparison of codes states that largest differences are in the intercompartmental flows and the in-compartment gas composition.

  15. Improved point-kinetics model for the BWR control rod drop accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neogy, P.; Wakabayashi, T.; Carew, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    A simple prescription to account for spatial feedback weighting effects in RDA (rod drop accident) point-kinetics analyses has been derived and tested. The point-kinetics feedback model is linear in the core peaking factor, F/sub Q/, and in the core average void fraction and fuel temperature. Comparison with detailed spatial kinetics analyses indicates that the improved point-kinetics model provides an accurate description of the BWR RDA

  16. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  17. Modelling the release of volatile fission product cesium from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, W.S.; Lewis, B.J.; Cox, D.S.

    1997-01-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions. The model was based on data for the release Of 134 Cs measured during three annealing experiments (Hot Cell Experiments 1 and 2, or HCE- 1, HCE-2 and Metallurgical Cell Experiment 1, or MCE- 1) at Chalk River Laboratories. These experiments were comprised of a total of 30 separate tests. The ANN established a correlation among 14 separate input variables and predicted the cumulative fractional release for a set of 386 data points drawn from 29 tests to a normalized error, E n , of 0.104 and an average absolute error, E abs , of 0.064. Predictions for a blind validation set (test HCE2-CM6) had an E n of 0.064 and an E abs of 0.054. A methodology is presented for deploying the ANN model by providing the connection weights. Finally, the performance of an ANN model was compared to a fuel oxidation model developed by Lewis et al. and to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's CORSOR-M. (author)

  18. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  19. MELCOR analysis of the TMI-2 accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucheron, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic predictions of severe accident phenomena and the radiological source team. The analysis of the TMI-2 standard problem allowed for comparison of the model predictions in MELCOR to plant data and to the results of more mechanistic analyses. This exercise was, therefore valuable for verifying and assessing the models in the code. The major trends in the TMI-2 accident are reasonably well predicted with MELCOR, even with its simplified modeling. Comparison of the calculated and measured results is presented and, based on this comparison, conclusions can be drawn concerning the applicability of MELCOR to severe accident analysis. 5 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  20. Operator modeling of a loss-of-pumping accident using MicroSAINT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, L.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) human factors group has been developing methods for analyzing nuclear reactor operator actions during hypothetical design-basis accident scenarios. The SRL reactors operate at a lower temperature and pressure than power reactors resulting in accident sequences that differ from those of power reactors. Current methodology development is focused on modeling control room operator response times dictated by system event times specified in the Savannah River Site Reactor Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The modeling methods must be flexible enough to incorporate changes to hardware, procedures, or postulated system event times and permit timely evaluation. The initial model developed was for the loss-of-pumping accident (LOPA) because a significant number of operator actions are required to respond to this postulated event. Human factors engineers had been researching and testing a network modeling simulation language called MicroSAINT to simulate operators' personal and interpersonal actions relative to operating system events. The LOPA operator modeling project demonstrated the versatility and flexibility of MicroSAINT for modeling control room crew interactions

  1. Inclusion of models to describe severe accident conditions in the fuel simulation code DIONISIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemes, Martín; Soba, Alejandro [Sección Códigos y Modelos, Gerencia Ciclo del Combustible Nuclear, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Avenida General Paz 1499, 1650 San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Daverio, Hernando [Gerencia Reactores y Centrales Nucleares, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Avenida General Paz 1499, 1650 San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Denis, Alicia [Sección Códigos y Modelos, Gerencia Ciclo del Combustible Nuclear, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Avenida General Paz 1499, 1650 San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2017-04-15

    The simulation of fuel rod behavior is a complex task that demands not only accurate models to describe the numerous phenomena occurring in the pellet, cladding and internal rod atmosphere but also an adequate interconnection between them. In the last years several models have been incorporated to the DIONISIO code with the purpose of increasing its precision and reliability. After the regrettable events at Fukushima, the need for codes capable of simulating nuclear fuels under accident conditions has come forth. Heat removal occurs in a quite different way than during normal operation and this fact determines a completely new set of conditions for the fuel materials. A detailed description of the different regimes the coolant may exhibit in such a wide variety of scenarios requires a thermal-hydraulic formulation not suitable to be included in a fuel performance code. Moreover, there exist a number of reliable and famous codes that perform this task. Nevertheless, and keeping in mind the purpose of building a code focused on the fuel behavior, a subroutine was developed for the DIONISIO code that performs a simplified analysis of the coolant in a PWR, restricted to the more representative situations and provides to the fuel simulation the boundary conditions necessary to reproduce accidental situations. In the present work this subroutine is described and the results of different comparisons with experimental data and with thermal-hydraulic codes are offered. It is verified that, in spite of its comparative simplicity, the predictions of this module of DIONISIO do not differ significantly from those of the specific, complex codes.

  2. Learning from nuclear accident experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models, and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants, it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants. 10 references, 7 figures, 2 tables

  3. German offsite accident consequence model for nuclear facilities: further development and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, A.

    1985-01-01

    The German Offsite Accident Consequence Model - first applied in the German Risk Study for nuclear power plants with light water reactors - has been further developed with the improvement of several important submodels in the areas of atmospheric dispersion, shielding effects of houses, and the foodchains. To aid interpretation, the presentation of results has been extended with special emphasis on the presentation of the loss of life expectancy. The accident consequence model has been further developed for application to risk assessments for other nuclear facilities, e.g., the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (SNR-300) and the high temperature gas cooled reactor. Moreover the model have been further developed in the area of optimal countermeasure strategies (sheltering, evacuation, etc.) in the case of the Central European conditions. Preliminary considerations has been performed in connection with safety goals on the basis of doses

  4. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  5. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  6. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  7. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jun; Mccabe, Mckinleigh; Wu, Lei; Dong, Xiaomeng; Wang, Xianmao; Haskin, Troy Christopher; Corradini, Michael L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  8. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jun, E-mail: jwang564@wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Mccabe, Mckinleigh [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wu, Lei [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Dong, Xiaomeng [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wang, Xianmao [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Haskin, Troy Christopher [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Corradini, Michael L., E-mail: corradini@engr.wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  9. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  10. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  11. On the prediction of the reactor vessel integrity under severe accident loadings (RPVSA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krieg, R. E-mail: maeule@irs.fzk.de; Devos, J.; Caroli, C.; Solomos, G.; Ennis, P.J.; Kalkhof, D

    2001-11-01

    In order to allow more reliable predictions on the lower head response under core melt-down conditions, the temperature distribution has been analysed including the natural convection in the corium pool. Furthermore, the mechanical models and the failure criteria have been improved based on the RUPTHER and FASTHER experiments where typical temperature gradients are simulated. Lower head local melting as well as corium crust development has been addressed in the CORVIS experiments studying the contact between an alumina/iron thermite and a thick steel plate. The upper head loading by corium impact due to a postulated in-vessel steam explosion has been investigated by the BERDA experiments. Similarity rules were considered such that the results can be directly converted to reactor conditions. Based on these investigations admissible steam explosion energy releases are determined which the upper head can carry. If these limits are not exceeded the reactor containment cannot be endangered by broken head fragments. To provide the necessary basic data, mechanical material tests have been performed.

  12. CONTEMPT: computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsii, Y.H.

    1978-04-01

    The CONTEMPT code is used by Babcock and Wilcox for containment analysis following a postulated loss of coolant accident. An additional model is described which is used for the calculation of long term post reflood mass and energy releases to the containment that is used for the containment design basis LOCA calculations. These calculations maximize the rate of energy flow to the containment. The mass and energy data are given to the containment designer for use in calculating the containment building design pressure and temperature and in sizing containment heat removal equipment

  13. Identification of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents in LWRs by Inverse Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cholewa, Wojciech; Frid, Wiktor; Bednarski, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a novel diagnostic method based on inverse models that could be applied to identification of transients and accidents in nuclear power plants. In particular, it is shown that such models could be successfully applied to identification of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). This is demonstrated for LOCA scenarios for a boiling water reactor. Two classes of inverse models are discussed: local models valid only in a selected neighborhood of an unknown element in the data set, representing a state of a considered object, and global models, in the form of partially unilateral models, valid over the whole learning data set. An interesting and useful property of local inverse models is that they can be considered as example-based models, i.e., models that are spanned on particular sets of pattern data. It is concluded that the optimal diagnostic method should combine the advantages of both models, i.e., the high quality of results obtained from a local inverse model and the information about the confidence interval for the expected output provided by a partially unilateral model

  14. Human reliability data, human error and accident models--illustration through the Three Mile Island accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bot, Pierre

    2004-01-01

    Our first objective is to provide a panorama of Human Reliability data used in EDF's Safety Probabilistic Studies, and then, since these concepts are at the heart of Human Reliability and its methods, to go over the notion of human error and the understanding of accidents. We are not sure today that it is actually possible to provide in this field a foolproof and productive theoretical framework. Consequently, the aim of this article is to suggest potential paths of action and to provide information on EDF's progress along those paths which enables us to produce the most potentially useful Human Reliability analyses while taking into account current knowledge in Human Sciences. The second part of this article illustrates our point of view as EDF researchers through the analysis of the most famous civil nuclear accident, the Three Mile Island unit accident in 1979. Analysis of this accident allowed us to validate our positions regarding the need to move, in the case of an accident, from the concept of human error to that of systemic failure in the operation of systems such as a nuclear power plant. These concepts rely heavily on the notion of distributed cognition and we will explain how we applied it. These concepts were implemented in the MERMOS Human Reliability Probabilistic Assessment methods used in the latest EDF Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessment. Besides the fact that it is not very productive to focus exclusively on individual psychological error, the design of the MERMOS method and its implementation have confirmed two things: the significance of qualitative data collection for Human Reliability, and the central role held by Human Reliability experts in building knowledge about emergency operation, which in effect consists of Human Reliability data collection. The latest conclusion derived from the implementation of MERMOS is that, considering the difficulty in building 'generic' Human Reliability data in the field we are involved in, the best

  15. WSPEEDI (worldwide version of SPEEDI): A computer code system for the prediction of radiological impacts on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Moriuchi, Shigeru [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Ishikawa, Hirohiko

    1995-09-01

    A computer code system has been developed for near real-time dose assessment during radiological emergencies. The system WSPEEDI, the worldwide version of SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) aims at predicting the radiological impact on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries. WSPEEDI consists of a mass-consistent wind model WSYNOP for large-scale wind fields and a particle random walk model GEARN for atmospheric dispersion and dry and wet deposition of radioactivity. The models are integrated into a computer code system together with a system control software, worldwide geographic database, meteorological data processor and graphic software. The performance of the models has been evaluated using the Chernobyl case with reliable source terms, well-established meteorological data and a comprehensive monitoring database. Furthermore, the response of the system has been examined by near real-time simulations of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), carried out over about 2,000 km area in Europe. (author).

  16. WSPEEDI (worldwide version of SPEEDI): A computer code system for the prediction of radiological impacts on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Moriuchi, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Hirohiko.

    1995-09-01

    A computer code system has been developed for near real-time dose assessment during radiological emergencies. The system WSPEEDI, the worldwide version of SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) aims at predicting the radiological impact on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries. WSPEEDI consists of a mass-consistent wind model WSYNOP for large-scale wind fields and a particle random walk model GEARN for atmospheric dispersion and dry and wet deposition of radioactivity. The models are integrated into a computer code system together with a system control software, worldwide geographic database, meteorological data processor and graphic software. The performance of the models has been evaluated using the Chernobyl case with reliable source terms, well-established meteorological data and a comprehensive monitoring database. Furthermore, the response of the system has been examined by near real-time simulations of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), carried out over about 2,000 km area in Europe. (author)

  17. Categorical and dimensional study of the predictive factors of the development of a psychotrauma in victims of car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berna, G; Vaiva, G; Ducrocq, F; Duhem, S; Nandrino, J L

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive factors of the emergence of complete PTSD and subsyndromal PTSD (defined as individuals exposed to a traumatic event with at least one psychopathological impact, such as hyperarousal, avoidance or persistent re-experiencing) following a motor vehicle accident (MVA). We recruited 155 adult MVA patients, physically injured and admitted to trauma service, over two years. In the week following the accident, patients were asked to complete questionnaires assessing their social situation (sex, age, marital and employment status, prior MVA or trauma), comorbidity (MINI), distress (PDI) and dissociation (PDEQ) experienced during and immediately after the trauma. An evaluation using the CAPS was conducted six months after the trauma to assess a possible PTSD. At six months, 25.8% of the participants developed subsyndromal symptoms and 7.74% developed complete PTSD. The three symptoms that best discriminated the groups were dysphoric emotion, perceived life threat and dissociation. Logistic regression results showed that the strongest predictor of PTSD was the perceived life threat. In addition, a dimensional approach to the results revealed significant correlations between (1) peritraumatic distress and persistent re-experiencing or hyperarousal and (2) dissociation score and avoidance strategy. The presence of a prior traumatic event reinforces avoidance strategies. Our results stress that peritraumatic factors (especially the perception of a life threat) are good predictors of PTSD development. A dimensional perspective allows better identification of psychological complications following an MVA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms - STU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Grindon, E.; Dutton, L.M.C.; Garcia-Sedano, P.; Santamaria, C.S.; Centner, B.; Auglaire, M.; Routamo, T.; Outa, S.; Jokiniemi, J.; Gustavsson, V.; Wennerstrom, H.; Spanier, L.; Gren, M.; Boschiero, M-H; Droulas, J-L; Friederichs, H-G; Sonnenkalb, M.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this project is to address the key uncertainties associated with a number of fission product release and transport phenomena in a wider context and to assess their relevance to key severe accident sequences. This project is a wide-based analysis involving eight reactor designs that are representative of the reactors currently operating in the European Union (EU). In total, 20 accident sequences covering a wide range of conditions have been chosen to provide the basis for sensitivity studies. The appraisal is achieved through a systematic risk-based framework developed within this project. Specifically, this is a quantitative interpretation of the sensitivity calculations on the basis of 'significance indicators', applied above defined threshold values. These threshold values represent a good surrogate for 'large release', which is defined in a number of EU countries. In addition, the results are placed in the context of in-containment source term limits, for advanced light water reactor designs, as defined by international guidelines. Overall, despite the phenomenological uncertainties, the predicted source terms (both into the containment, and subsequently, into the environment) do not display a high degree of sensitivity to the individual fission product issues addressed in this project. This is due, mainly, to the substantial capacity for the attenuation of airborne fission products by the designed safety provisions and the natural fission product retention mechanisms within the containment

  19. Improved atmospheric dispersion modelling in the new program system UFOMOD for accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straightline Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different concepts of dispersion modelling on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been carried out. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that these trajectory models provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completly novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling which distinguish between two different distance ranges of validity: the near range ( 50 km). The two ranges are assigned to respective trajectory models

  20. Modeling of Spray System Operation under Hydrogen and Steam Emissions in NPP Containment during Severe Accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim E. Seleznev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes one of the variants of mathematical models of a fluid dynamics process inside the containment, which occurs in the conditions of operation of spray systems in severe accidents at nuclear power plant. The source of emergency emissions in this case is the leak of the coolant or rupture at full cross-section of the main circulating pipeline in a reactor building. Leak or rupture characteristics define the localization and the temporal law of functioning of a source of emergency emission (or accrued operating of warmed up hydrogen and steam in the containment. Operation of this source at the course of analyzed accident models should be described by the assignment of the relevant Dirichlet boundary conditions. Functioning of the passive autocatalytic recombiners of hydrogen is described in the form of the complex Newton boundary conditions.

  1. Accident consequence analysis models applied to licensing process of nuclear installations, radioactive and conventional industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senne Junior, Murillo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    The industrial accidents happened in the last years, particularly in the eighty's decade, had contributed in a significant way to call the attention to government authorities, industry and society as a whole, demanding mechanisms for preventing episodes that could affect people's safety and environment quality. Techniques and methods already thoroughly used in the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries were then adapted for performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. Some models for analyzing the consequences of accidents involving fire and explosion, used in the licensing processes of nuclear and radioactive facilities, are presented in this paper. These models have also application in the licensing of conventional industrial facilities. (author)

  2. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  3. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  4. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  5. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

    2013-12-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  7. A model of how features of construction projects influence accident occurrence

    OpenAIRE

    Manu, P.

    2017-01-01

    This book chapter in "Valuing People in Construction" (edited by Emuze, F. and Smallwood, J.) presents a study which sought empirical verification of a model of how construction project features (CPFs) influence accident occurrence. A qualitative strategy, in particular phenomenology, involving a range of in-depth interviews with practitioners was used and the findings were subsequently validated using a credibility check involving a survey. Altogether, the findings of the interviews and cred...

  8. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bui, V.A

    1998-10-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance 88 refs, 54 figs, 7 tabs

  9. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maderich, V.; Bezhenar, R.; Heling, R.; With, G. de; Jung, K.T.; Myoung, J.G.; Cho, Y.-K.; Qiao, F.; Robertson, L.

    2014-01-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945–2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011–2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from 137 Cs data for the period 1945–2010. Calculated concentrations of 137 Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y −1 is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of 137 Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y −1 . Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  10. The development and demonstration of integrated models for the evaluation of severe accident management strategies - SAMEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Peers, K.; Kersting, E.; Fassmann, W.; Tuomisto, H.; Lundstroem, P.; Helle, M.; Gustavsson, V.; Jacobsson, P.

    2001-01-01

    This study is concerned with the further development of integrated models for the assessment of existing and potential severe accident management (SAM) measures. This paper provides a brief summary of these models, based on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods and the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) approach, and their application to a number of case studies spanning both preventive and mitigative accident management regimes. In the course of this study it became evident that the starting point to guide the selection of methodology and any further improvement is the intended application. Accordingly, such features as the type and area of application and the confidence requirement are addressed in this project. The application of an integrated ROAAM approach led to the implementation, at the Loviisa NPP, of a hydrogen mitigation strategy, which requires substantial plant modifications. A revised level 2 PSA model was applied to the Sizewell B NPP to assess the feasibility of the in-vessel retention strategy. Similarly the application of PSA based models was extended to the Barseback and Ringhals 2 NPPs to improve the emergency operating procedures, notably actions related to manual operations. A human reliability analysis based on the Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) and Technique For Human Error Rate (THERP) models was applied to a case study addressing secondary and primary bleed and feed procedures. Some aspects pertinent to the quantification of severe accident phenomena were further examined in this project. A comparison of the applications of PSA based approach and ROAAM to two severe accident issues, viz hydrogen combustion and in-vessel retention, was made. A general conclusion is that there is no requirement for further major development of the PSA and ROAAM methodologies in the modelling of SAM strategies for a variety of applications as far as the technical aspects are concerned. As is demonstrated in this project, the

  11. TRAC calculations of a loss-of-coolant accident in a reactor scale model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyun, J.J.

    1981-01-01

    The TRAC (Transient Reactor Analysis Code) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory as an advanced best-estimate computer program for analysis of postulated hypothetical accidents in pressurized water reactors. As a part of the TRAC developmental verification efforts, a TRAC posttest analysis of Semiscale Mod-3 Test S-07-6 was conducted. The results of this analysis show that the agreement between TRAC calculations and experimental data is not very good. In particular, TRAC does not predict the long term doncomer and core liquid level oscillations during the reflood phase

  12. Evaluation and Prediction present of radionuclide for surface wipe sample in Emergency Related with Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zalina Laili; Muhamat Omar; Woo, Y.M.

    2011-01-01

    Surface wipe samples of aircraft and container from Japan that were exposed to radioactive dust fallout due to Fukushima nuclear accident has been analysed using gamma spectrometry systems. The samples were analysed to determine their contamination levels. The surface of aircraft and container might be exposed to short and long lived fission and activation products. Thus, good evaluations, as well as a reliable and reasonable judgment were needed in order to determine the presence of fission and activation products. A work procedure has been developed to evaluate and predict the presence of fission and activation products in surface wipe samples. Good references, skilled and experienced level in analysis, a well calibrated and validated detector system were the important factors in determining the presence of fission and activation products in surface wipe samples. (author)

  13. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  14. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  15. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  16. Prediction of thermoplastic failure of a reactor pressure vessel under a postulated core melt accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duijvestijn, G.; Birchley, J.; Reichlin, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the lower head failure calculations performed for a postulated accident scenario in a commercial nuclear power plant. A postulated one inch break in the primary coolant circuit leads to dryout and subsequent meltdown of the core. The reference plant is a pressurized water reactor without penetrations in the reactor vessel lower head. The molten core material accumulates in the lower head, eventually causing failure of the vessel. The analysis investigates flow conditions in the melt pool, temperature evolution in the reactor vessel wall, and structure mechanical evaluation of the vessel under strong thermal loads and a range of internal pressures. The calculations were performed using the ADINA finite element codes. The analysis focusses on the failure processes, time and mode of failure. The most likely mode of failure at low pressure is global rupture due to gradual accumulation of creep strain over a large part of the heated area. In contrast, thermoplasticity becomes important at high pressure or following a pressure spike and can lead to earlier local failure. In situations in which part of the heat load is concentrated over a small area, resulting in a hot spot, local failure occurs, but not until the temperatures are close to the melting point. At low pressure, in particular, the hot spot area remains intact until the structure is molten across more than half of the thickness. (author) 14 figs., 16 refs

  17. Modeling of hot tensile and short-term creep strength for LWR piping materials under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Y.; Maruyama, Y.; Chino, E.; Shibazaki, H.; Kudo, T.; Hidaka, A.; Hashimoto, K.; Sugimoto, J.

    2000-01-01

    The analytical study on severe accident shows the possibility of the reactor coolant system (RCS) piping failure before reactor pressure vessel failure under the high primary pressure sequence at pressurized water reactors. The establishment of the high-temperature strength model of the realistic RCS piping materials is important in order to predict precisely the accident progression and to evaluate the piping behavior with small uncertainties. Based on material testing, the 0.2% proof stress and the ultimate tensile strength above 800degC were given by the equations of second degree as a function of the reciprocal absolute temperature considering the strength increase due to fine precipitates for the piping materials. The piping materials include type 316 stainless steel, type 316 stainless steel of nuclear grade, CF8M cast duplex stainless steel and STS410 carbon steel. Also the short-term creep rupture time and the minimum creep rate at high-temperature were given by the modified Norton's Law as a function of stress and temperature considering the effect of the precipitation formation and resolution on the creep strength. The present modified Norton's Law gives better results than the conventional Larson-Miller method. Correlating the creep data (the applied stress versus the minimum creep rate) with the tensile data (the 0.2% proof stress or the ultimate tensile strength versus the strain rate), it was found that the dynamic recrystallization significantly occurred at high-temperature. (author)

  18. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G. [Internationale Atomreaktorbau G.m.b.H. (INTERATOM), Bergisch Gladbach (Germany, F.R.)

    1981-01-15

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen.

  19. A dynamic model for the study of evacuation under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, G.C.; Caracciolo, R.; Sepede, M.; Casiroli, F.; Rodriguez, R.

    1987-01-01

    Information techniques and models are being used to simulate the evacuation of people living around a nuclear power plant and these methods are being increasingly used for planning purposes. In this study vehicular mobility on a complex road network following an accident has been considered and applied to the specifications of the emergency plans. Simulation tests of the mobility relevant to different combinations of time and meteorological conditions have been undertaken through use of the computer code TRIPS in order to assess the impact on the road network of an accident situation and the preparedness measures. The study has led to a description of the accessibility time curves related to the population gathering centres and has enabled identification of the best routes in order to achieve the minimum travel time. (author)

  20. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G.

    1981-01-01

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen

  1. Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

    2014-10-01

    This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  3. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  4. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  5. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  6. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  7. Modeling in fast dynamics of accidents in the primary circuit of PWR type reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robbe, M.F.

    2003-12-01

    Two kinds of accidents, liable to occur in the primary circuit of a Pressurized Water Reactor and involving fast dynamic phenomena, are analyzed. The Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) is the accident used to define the current PWR. It consists in a large-size break located in a pipe of the primary circuit. A blowdown wave propagates through the circuit. The pressure differences between the different zones of the reactor induce high stresses in the structures of the lower head and may degrade the reactor core. The primary circuit starts emptying from the break opening. Pressure decreases very quickly, involving a large steaming. Two thermal-hydraulic simulations of the blowdown phase of a LOCA are computed with the Europlexus code. The primary circuit is represented by a pipe-model including the hydraulic peculiarities of the circuit. The main differences between both computations concern the kind of reactor, the break location and model, and the initialization of the accidental operation. Steam explosion is a hypothetical severe accident liable to happen after a core melting. The molten part of the core (called corium) falls in the lower part of the reactor. The interaction between the hot corium and the cold water remaining at the bottom of the vessel induces a massive and violent vaporization of water, similar to an explosive phenomenon. A shock wave propagates in the vessel. what can damage seriously the neighbouring structures or drill the vessel. This work presents a synthesis of in-vessel parametrical studies carried out with the Europlexus code, the linkage of the thermal-hydraulic code Mc3d dedicated to the pre-mixing phase with the Europlexus code dealing with the explosion, and finally a benchmark between the Cigalon and Europlexus codes relative to the Vulcano mock-up. (author)

  8. Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

    2016-01-01

    Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

  9. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  10. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the second in a series of five papers describing the information, decision, and action in crew context (IDAC) model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, psychological, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper identifies the IDAC set of performance influencing factors (PIFs), providing their definitions and causal organization in the form of a modular influence diagram. Fifty PIFs are identified to support the IDAC model to be implemented in a computer simulation environment. They are classified into eleven hierarchically structured groups. The PIFs within each group are independent to each other; however, dependencies may exist between PIFs within different groups. The supporting evidence for the selection and organization of the influence paths based on psychological literature, observations, and various human reliability analysis methodologies is also indicated

  12. A Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Siphon Breaking Phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Youngmin; Kim, Young-In; Seo, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Keung Koo; Yoon, Juhyeon

    2014-01-01

    A siphon phenomenon or siphoning often refers to the movement of liquid from a higher elevation to a lower one through a tube in an inverted U shape (whose top is typically located above the liquid surface) under the action of gravity, and has been used in a variety of reallife applications such as a toilet bowl and a Greedy cup. However, liquid drainage due to siphoning sometimes needs to be prevented. For example, a siphon breaker, which is designed to limit the siphon effect by allowing the gas entrainment into a siphon line, is installed in order to maintain the pool water level above the reactor core when a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) occurs in an open-pool type research reactor. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon. In this paper, a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon is developed. It is shown that the present model predicts well the fundamental features of the siphon breaking phenomenon and undershooting height

  13. A Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Siphon Breaking Phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Youngmin; Kim, Young-In; Seo, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Keung Koo; Yoon, Juhyeon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    A siphon phenomenon or siphoning often refers to the movement of liquid from a higher elevation to a lower one through a tube in an inverted U shape (whose top is typically located above the liquid surface) under the action of gravity, and has been used in a variety of reallife applications such as a toilet bowl and a Greedy cup. However, liquid drainage due to siphoning sometimes needs to be prevented. For example, a siphon breaker, which is designed to limit the siphon effect by allowing the gas entrainment into a siphon line, is installed in order to maintain the pool water level above the reactor core when a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) occurs in an open-pool type research reactor. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon. In this paper, a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon is developed. It is shown that the present model predicts well the fundamental features of the siphon breaking phenomenon and undershooting height.

  14. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  15. Effects of neutron streaming and geometric models on molten fuel recriticality accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, T.P.

    1975-10-01

    A postulated fast reactor accident which has been extant for many years is a recriticality following partial or complete core melting. Independently of the cause or probability of such a situation, certain cases can be defined and some facets of the dynamic history of these cases can be described with more than enough accuracy for safety considerations. Calculations were made with the PAD code for systems with 10 vol percent voids and varying reactivity insertion rates. Additionally, two distinct geometric and equation of state models were investigated in conjunction with a model which accounted for possible neutron streaming reactivity effects. Significant results include fission and kinetic energy, temperatures and pressures

  16. Utilization of dose assessment models to facilitate off-site recovery operations for accidents at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, M.H.; Foster, K.T.

    1989-09-01

    One of the most important uses of dose assessment models in response to accidents at nuclear facilities is to help provide guidance to emergency response managers for identifying, and mitigating, the consequences of an accident once the accident has been terminated. By combining results from assessment models with radiological measurements, a qualitative methodology can be developed to aid emergency response managers in determining the total dose received by the population and to minimize future doses through the use of mitigation procedures. To illustrate the methodology, this discussion focuses on the use of models to estimate the dose delivered to the public both during and after a nuclear accident. 4 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  17. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  18. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  19. Comparison of the foodchain transport models of WASH-1400 and MARC using the accident consequence model UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhauer, C.

    1985-04-01

    Within the frame of the contract with the European Community 'Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents' (CEC-MARIA) comparative accident consequence assessments were performed with the computer code UFOMOD, replacing the currently implemented foodchain transport model of the WASH-1400 study by the dynamic transport model of the MARC methodology. The calculations were based on the release category FK2 of the German Risk Study with meteorological data representing four different regions of the Federal Republic of Germany. The study of seasonal variations was carried out with the MARC data for four representative times of deposition with an agricultural practice adopted in the UK. In this report the differences are presented which are observed in the potential doses due to ingestion, the areas affected by food-bans and the late health effects when using both models and taking the influence of seasonal effects into account. (orig.) [de

  20. A Complex Network Model for Analyzing Railway Accidents Based on the Maximal Information Coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao Fu-Bo; Li Ke-Ping

    2016-01-01

    It is an important issue to identify important influencing factors in railway accident analysis. In this paper, employing the good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships, the maximal information coefficient (MIC), which can capture a wide range of associations, a complex network model for railway accident analysis is designed in which nodes denote factors of railway accidents and edges are generated between two factors of which MIC values are larger than or equal to the dependent criterion. The variety of network structure is studied. As the increasing of the dependent criterion, the network becomes to an approximate scale-free network. Moreover, employing the proposed network, important influencing factors are identified. And we find that the annual track density-gross tonnage factor is an important factor which is a cut vertex when the dependent criterion is equal to 0.3. From the network, it is found that the railway development is unbalanced for different states which is consistent with the fact. (paper)

  1. Model of cyclist accident characteristics in the city of Malang and Blitar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arifin, M. Z.; Agustin, I. W.

    2018-01-01

    Utilization of bicycles as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation is reconcerned as the development of sustainable transportation programs. The use of bicycles in some developed countries such as the Netherlands is 27 per cent of total travel, while for developing countries such as Indonesia, cyclists are less than 1% of total travel with low educated characteristics (65 per cent) and low income (48 per cent). Cyclist reduces dependencies on petroleum and environmental pollution as well as lessen the occurrence of congestion and traffic accidents involving motor vehicles. It was necessary to know the behavior and interaction of bicycle riders with other vehicle users in a heterogeneous traffic flow. The main purpose of the research is to create a model of bicycle accidents to increase the road traffic safety in Malang city and Blitar city. The research used analyses of frequency, the road’s level of service, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that there was a need for a development basis of a special lane for bicycle. It aims to reduce the level and number of cyclist accidents and to achieve transportation safety as well as to raise public awareness in traffic safety.

  2. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  3. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  4. Radionuclides from the Fukushima accident in the air over Lithuania: measurement and modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lujanienė, G; Byčenkienė, S; Povinec, P P; Gera, M

    2012-12-01

    Analyses of (131)I, (137)Cs and (134)Cs in airborne aerosols were carried out in daily samples in Vilnius, Lithuania after the Fukushima accident during the period of March-April, 2011. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs ranged from 12 μBq/m(3) and 1.4 μBq/m(3) to 3700 μBq/m(3) and 1040 μBq/m(3), respectively. The activity concentration of (239,240)Pu in one aerosol sample collected from 23 March to 15 April, 2011 was found to be 44.5 nBq/m(3). The two maxima found in radionuclide concentrations were related to complicated long-range air mass transport from Japan across the Pacific, the North America and the Atlantic Ocean to Central Europe as indicated by modelling. HYSPLIT backward trajectories and meteorological data were applied for interpretation of activity variations of measured radionuclides observed at the site of investigation. (7)Be and (212)Pb activity concentrations and their ratios were used as tracers of vertical transport of air masses. Fukushima data were compared with the data obtained during the Chernobyl accident and in the post Chernobyl period. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs were found to be by 4 orders of magnitude lower as compared to the Chernobyl accident. The activity ratio of (134)Cs/(137)Cs was around 1 with small variations only. The activity ratio of (238)Pu/(239,240)Pu in the aerosol sample was 1.2, indicating a presence of the spent fuel of different origin than that of the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  6. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  7. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  8. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  9. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  10. A microcomputer-based model for identifying urban and suburban roadways with critical large truck accident rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brogan, J.D.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of techniques for merging highway accident record and roadway inventory files and employing the combined data set to identify spots or sections on highway facilities in urban and suburban areas with unusually high large truck accident rates. A statistical technique, the rate/quality control method, is used to calculate a critical rate for each location of interest. This critical rate may then be compared to the location's actual accident rate to identify locations for further study. Model enhancements and modifications are described to enable the technique to be employed in the evaluation of routing alternatives for the transport of radioactive material

  11. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  12. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  13. Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

  14. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code main features, current V2.0 modelling status, perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelard, P.; Reinke, N.; Arndt, S.; Belon, S.; Cantrel, L.; Carenini, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Cousin, F.; Eckel, J.; Jacq, F.; Marchetto, C.; Mun, C.; Piar, L.

    2014-01-01

    The severe accident integral code ASTEC, jointly developed since almost 20 years by IRSN and GRS, simulates the behaviour of a whole nuclear power plant under severe accident conditions, including severe accident management by engineering systems and procedures. Since 2004, the ASTEC code is progressively becoming the reference European severe accident integral code through in particular the intensification of research activities carried out in the frame of the SARNET European network of excellence. The first version of the new series ASTEC V2 was released in 2009 to about 30 organizations worldwide and in particular to SARNET partners. With respect to the previous V1 series, this new V2 series includes advanced core degradation models (issued from the ICARE2 IRSN mechanistic code) and necessary extensions to be applicable to Gen. III reactor designs, notably a description of the core catcher component to simulate severe accidents transients applied to the EPR reactor. Besides these two key-evolutions, most of the other physical modules have also been improved and ASTEC V2 is now coupled to the SUNSET statistical tool to make easier the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The ASTEC models are today at the state of the art (in particular fission product models with respect to source term evaluation), except for quenching of a severely damage core. Beyond the need to develop an adequate model for the reflooding of a degraded core, the main other mean-term objectives are to further progress on the on-going extension of the scope of application to BWR and CANDU reactors, to spent fuel pool accidents as well as to accidents in both the ITER Fusion facility and Gen. IV reactors (in priority on sodium-cooled fast reactors) while making ASTEC evolving towards a severe accident simulator constitutes the main long-term objective. This paper presents the status of the ASTEC V2 versions, focussing on the description of V2.0 models for water-cooled nuclear plants

  15. A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertch, Timothy Creston

    1998-12-01

    Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release

  16. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  18. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  19. Radiological health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.

    1989-01-01

    Improved health effects models have been developed for assessing the early effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects that might result from low-LET radiation exposures to populations following a major accident in a nuclear power plant. All the models have been developed in such a way that the dynamics of population risks can be analyzed. Estimates of life years lost and the duration of illnesses were generated and a framework recommended for summarizing health impacts. Uncertainty is addressed by providing models for upper, central and lower estimates of most effects. The models are believed to be a significant improvement over the models used in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Reactor Safety Study, and they can easily be modified to reflect advances in scientific understanding of the health effects of ionizing radiation

  20. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Takahashi, Tomoyuki [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Yonehara, Hidenori [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)] [eds.

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  1. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  2. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  3. The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

  4. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  5. A model for the calculation of the off-site economic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego, E.; Alonso, A.

    1988-01-01

    The off-site economic cost of nuclear reactor accidents will depend on the countermeasures adopted to reduce its radiological impact. The assessment of the direct costs of emergency countermeasures (evacuation, early relocation and food disposal) as well as those of long-term protective actions (food disposal, decontamination or interdiction) is the objective of a model under development, with the sponsorship of the CEC Radiation Protection Programme, called MECA (Model for assessing the Economic Consequences of Accidents). The meteorological and socio-economical peculiarities of each site studied will be taken into account, by means of a flexible meteorological sampling scheme, which considers the geographical distribution of population and economic centers, and a data-base, compatible with the existing European grid, that contains the population distribution and the economic characteristics of the environs of the site to be studied with more detail near the reactor. The paper summarizes the particular models which will be included in MECA and shows the importance of site-specific adaptable modelling for economic risk evaluation

  6. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  7. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  8. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  9. Postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, W.

    1980-01-01

    This lecture on 'Postulated Accidents' is the first of a series of lectures on the dynamic and transient behaviour of nuclear power plants, especially pressurized water reactors. The main points covered will be: Reactivity Accidents, Transients (Intact Loop) and Loss of Cooland Accidents (LOCA) including small leak. This lecture will discuss the accident analysis in general, the definition of the various operational phases, the accident classification, and, as an example, an accident sequence analysis on the basis of 'Postulated Accidents'. (orig./RW)

  10. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  11. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  3. Analysis and model testing of a Super Tiger Type B waste transport system in accident environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, R.A.; Yoshimura, H.R.; Romesberg, L.E.; Joseph, B.J.

    1980-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is investigating the response of a Type B packaging containing drums of contact-handled transuranic waste (CH-TRU) as a part of a program to evaluate the adequacy of experimental and analytical methods for assessing the safety of waste transport systems in accident environments. A US NRC certified Type B package known as the Super Tiger was selected for the study. This overpack consists of inner and outer steel shells separated by rigid polyurethane foam and can be used for either highway or rail transportation. Tests using scale models of the vehicular system are being conducted in conjunction with computer analyses

  4. Modelling of radioactive fallout in the vicinity of Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Israel, Y.A.; Petrov, V.N.; Severov, D.A.

    1988-03-01

    Deposition of radioactive products escaping into the atmosphere for a long time from the Chernobylsk-4 reactor resulting in residual radioactive contamination of the region at a distance of up to 100 km from the nuclear power plant is considered. The suggested model may be used for estimation of the possible scope of nuclear danger in the regions of nuclear power plants and creation of conditions ensuring safety of the population at possible accidents. The following topics are developed: height of elevation and conditions of radionuclide transfer in the atmosphere; dynamics of release and dispersive composition of radioactive products; calculations of radiation levels at a close trace [fr

  5. A simplified model for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1988-07-01

    A personal computer-based model, SMART, has been developed that uses an integral approach for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents. The solution procedure uses simplified meteorology and involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position. This is different from the discretization approach currently used in the CRAC2 and MACCS codes. The SMART code is fast-running, thereby providing a valuable tool for sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The code was benchmarked against both MACCS version 1.4 and CRAC2. Results of benchmarking and detailed sensitivity/uncertainty analyses using SMART are presented. 34 refs., 21 figs., 24 tabs

  6. Application of transient ignition model to multi-canister (MCO) accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kummerer, M.

    1996-01-01

    The potential for ignition of spent nuclear fuel in a Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) is examined. A transient model is applied to calculate the highest ambient gas temperature outside an MCO wall tube or shipping cask for which a stable temperature condition exists. This integral analysis couples reaction kinetics with a description of the MCO configuration, heat and mass transfer, and fission product phenomena. It thereby allows ignition theory to be applied to various complex scenarios, including MCO water loss accidents and dry MCO air ingression

  7. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  8. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  9. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  10. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  11. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for the tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperatures and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtl number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid for superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its

  12. Serum hsCRP: A Novel Marker for Prediction of Cerebrovascular Accidents (Stroke).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patgiri, Dibyaratna; Pathak, Mauchumi Saikia; Sharma, Pradeep; Kutum, Tridip; Mattack, Nirmali

    2014-12-01

    Strokes are caused by disruption of the blood supply to the brain. This may result from either blockage or rupture of a blood vessel. Yearly 15 million people worldwide suffer a stroke. India ranks second worldwide in terms of deaths from stroke. The incidence of stroke increases with age affecting the economically productive middle aged population. Hypertension and male sex are other risk factors for stroke. C-Reactive Protein (CRP) is an acute phase protein whose concentration rises in blood following inflammation. Formerly, assays for CRP detected its rise only after significant inflammation. However, recently developed high sensitivity assays (hsCRP) enable the measurement of CRP in individuals who are apparently healthy. Several studies indicate that hsCRP is elevated in individuals who are at risk of developing Coronary Artery Disease or Cerebrovascular events, the elevation may be found years before the first detection of vascular problems. In the absence of other biochemical markers, the present study aimed to evaluate the predictive and diagnostic role of hsCRP in stroke. The study consisted of 50 patients of acute stroke admitted in Gauhati Medical College and Hospital. The control population consisted of two groups - 50 age and sex matched controls with hypertension (Hypertensive control group) and 50 age and sex matched controls with no obvious disease constituted the Normal control group. hsCRP levels were measured in all the groups and compared statistically. hsCRP is an acute phase reactant whose concentration rises in stroke as well as in those at risk. The rise may be identified even before the appearance of risk factors. Hence, hsCRP may be useful as a predictive and diagnostic marker in stroke.

  13. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters are required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtle number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid of superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its structure

  14. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  15. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  16. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  17. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  18. Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talerko, Nikolai

    2005-01-01

    This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137 Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137 Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition

  19. Real Time Radioactivity Monitoring and its Interface with predictive atmospheric transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, F.

    1990-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident, a programme was initiated at the Joint Research Centre of the Commission of the European Communities named 'Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring' (REM). The main aspects considered in REM are: data handling, atmospheric modelling and data quality control related to radioactivity in the environment. The first REM workshop was held in December 1987: 'Aerosol Measurements and Nuclear Accidents: A Reconsideration'. (CEC EUR 11755 EN). These are the proceedings of the second REM workshop, held in December 1989, dealing with real-time radioactivity monitoring and its interface with predictive atmospheric models. Atmospheric transport models, in applications extending over time scales of the order of a day or more become progressively less reliable to the extent that an interface with real-time radiological field data becomes highly desirable. Through international arrangements for early exchange of information in the event of a nuclear accident (European Community, IAEA) such data might become available on a quasi real-time basis. The question is how best to use such information to improve our predictive capabilities. During the workshop the present status of on-line monitoring networks for airborne radioactivity in the EC Member States has been reviewed. Possibilities were discussed to use data from such networks as soon as they become available, in order to update predictions made with long range transport models. This publication gives the full text of 13 presentations and a report of the Round Table Discussion held afterwards

  20. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  1. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  2. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  3. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  4. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  5. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo; Wanginingastuti Mutmainnah; Masao Furusho

    2017-01-01

    Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequen...

  6. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code: Fission product modelling and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantrel, L.; Cousin, F.; Bosland, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Marchetto, C.

    2014-01-01

    One main goal of the severe accident integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed since almost more than 15 years by IRSN and GRS, is to simulate the overall behaviour of fission products (FP) in a damaged nuclear facility. ASTEC applications are source term determinations, level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA2) studies including the determination of uncertainties, accident management studies and physical analyses of FP experiments to improve the understanding of the phenomenology. ASTEC is a modular code and models of a part of the phenomenology are implemented in each module: the release of FPs and structural materials from degraded fuel in the ELSA module; the transport through the reactor coolant system approximated as a sequence of control volumes in the SOPHAEROS module; and the radiochemistry inside the containment nuclear building in the IODE module. Three other modules, CPA, ISODOP and DOSE, allow respectively computing the deposition rate of aerosols inside the containment, the activities of the isotopes as a function of time, and the gaseous dose rate which is needed to model radiochemistry in the gaseous phase. In ELSA, release models are semi-mechanistic and have been validated for a wide range of experimental data, and noticeably for VERCORS experiments. For SOPHAEROS, the models can be divided into two parts: vapour phase phenomena and aerosol phase phenomena. For IODE, iodine and ruthenium chemistry are modelled based on a semi-mechanistic approach, these FPs can form some volatile species and are particularly important in terms of potential radiological consequences. The models in these 3 modules are based on a wide experimental database, resulting for a large part from international programmes, and they are considered at the state of the art of the R and D knowledge. This paper illustrates some FPs modelling capabilities of ASTEC and computed values are compared to some experimental results, which are parts of the validation matrix

  7. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  8. Mathematical modeling of ignition of woodlands resulted from accident on the pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perminov, V. A.; Loboda, E. L.; Reyno, V. V.

    2014-11-01

    Accidents occurring at the sites of pipelines, accompanied by environmental damage, economic loss, and sometimes loss of life. In this paper we calculated the sizes of the possible ignition zones in emergency situations on pipelines located close to the forest, accompanied by the appearance of fireballs. In this paper, using the method of mathematical modeling calculates the maximum size of the ignition zones of vegetation as a result of accidental releases of flammable substances. The paper suggested in the context of the general mathematical model of forest fires give a new mathematical setting and method of numerical solution of a problem of a forest fire modeling. The boundary-value problem is solved numerically using the method of splitting according to physical processes. The dependences of the size of the forest fuel for different amounts of leaked flammable substances and moisture content of vegetation.

  9. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  10. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  11. Ruthenium release modelling in air and steam atmospheres under severe accident conditions using the MAAP4 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuzet, Emilie; Lamy, Jean-Sylvestre; Perron, Hadrien; Simoni, Eric; Ducros, Gérard

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We developed a new modelling of fuel oxidation and ruthenium release in the EDF version of the MAAP4 code. ► We validated this model against some VERCORS experiments. ► Ruthenium release prediction quantitatively and qualitatively well reproduced under air and steam atmospheres. - Abstract: In a nuclear power plant (NPP), a severe accident is a low probability sequence that can lead to core fusion and fission product (FP) release to the environment (source term). For instance during a loss-of-coolant accident, water vaporization and core uncovery can occur due to decay heat. These phenomena enhance core degradation and, subsequently, molten materials can relocate to the lower head of the vessel. Heat exchange between the debris and the vessel may cause its rupture and air ingress. After lower head failure, steam and air entering in the vessel can lead to degradation and oxidation of materials that are still intact in the core. Indeed, Zircaloy-4 cladding oxidation is very exothermic and fuel interaction with the cladding material can decrease its melting temperature by several hundred of Kelvin. FP release can thus be increased, noticeably that of ruthenium under oxidizing conditions. Ruthenium is of particular interest because of its high radio-toxicity due to 103 Ru and 106 Ru isotopes and its ability to form highly volatile compounds, even at room temperature, such as gaseous ruthenium tetra-oxide (RuO 4 ). It is consequently of great need to understand phenomena governing steam and air oxidation of the fuel and ruthenium release as prerequisites for the source term issues. A review of existing data on these phenomena shows relatively good understanding. In terms of oxygen affinity, the fuel is oxidized before ruthenium, from UO 2 to UO 2+x . Its oxidation is a rate-controlling surface exchange reaction with the atmosphere, so that the stoichiometric deviation and oxygen partial pressure increase. High temperatures combined with the presence

  12. Experimental and modelling studies of iodine oxide formation and aerosol behaviour relevant to nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, S.; Auvinen, A.; Ammar, Y.; Bosland, L.; Clément, B.; Funke, F.; Glowa, G.; Kärkelä, T.; Powers, D.A.; Tietze, S.; Weber, G.; Zhang, S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Radiolytic reactions can influence iodine volatility following a nuclear accident. • Kinetic models have been developed based on atmospheric chemistry studies. • Properties of iodine oxide aerosols produced by radiation have been measured. • Decomposition of iodine oxides by the action of heat or radiation has been observed. - Abstract: Plant assessments have shown that iodine contributes significantly to the source term for a range of accident scenarios. Iodine has a complex chemistry that determines its chemical form and, consequently, its volatility in the containment. If volatile iodine species are formed by reactions in the containment, they will be subject to radiolytic reactions in the atmosphere, resulting in the conversion of the gaseous species into involatile iodine oxides, which may deposit on surfaces or re-dissolve in water pools. The concentration of airborne iodine in the containment will, therefore, be determined by the balance between the reactions contributing to the formation and destruction of volatile species, as well as by the physico-chemical properties of the iodine oxide aerosols which will influence their longevity in the atmosphere. This paper summarises the work that has been done in the framework of the EC SARNET (Severe Accident Research Network) to develop a greater understanding of the reactions of gaseous iodine species in irradiated air/steam atmospheres, and the nature and behaviour of the reaction products. This work has mainly been focussed on investigating the nature and behaviour of iodine oxide aerosols, but earlier work by members of the SARNET group on gaseous reaction rates is also discussed to place the more recent work into context

  13. Management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents. Forvaltning av naeringsmidler etter kjernefysiske ulykker; En nordisk modell for nasjonal respons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-04-01

    A model for the management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents is presented. The model is a synthesis of traditions and principles taken from both radioactive protection and management of food. It is based on cooperation between the Nordic countries and on practical experience gained from the Chernobyl accident. The aim of the model is to produce a basis for common plans for critical situations based on criteria for decision making. In the case of radioactive accidents it is important that the protection of the public and of the society is handled in a positive way. The model concerns production, marketing and consumption of food and beverage. The overall aim is that the radiation doses should be as low and harmless to health for individual members of the public. (CLS) 35 refs.

  14. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  15. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  16. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  17. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  18. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  19. Modelization of the initiator success of the accident of Fukushima Daiichi in the NPP of ZION by the code MAAP-5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Fernandez, M.; Jimenez, G.; Batteira, P.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the project is the modeling of the accident with a code new in the industry, MAAP5, and in a different nuclear plant, as well as various parameters sensitivity analysis to assess their influence on the evolution of the accident. The paper presents the analysis of the evolution of the simulated accident, as well as the evaluation of different sensitivity analyses performed on different parameters influence on the evolution: pre-accident conditions, actions of operator, etc. Operator actions, not referred to in the emergency procedures, which could influence the behavior of the reactor vessel during severe accident progression were analyzed.

  20. Quantitative analysis of prediction models for hot cracking in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A RodrМguez-Prieto

    2017-11-16

    Nov 16, 2017 ... enhancing safety margins and adding greater precision to quantitative accident prediction [45]. One deterministic methodology is the stringency level (SL) approach, which is recognized as a valuable decision tool in the selection of standardized materials specifications to prevent potential failures [3].

  1. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  2. Modelling of plate-out under gas-cooled reactor (GCR) accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taig, A.R.

    1981-01-01

    The importance of plate-out in mitigating consequences of gas-cooled reactor accidents, and its place in assessing these consequences, are discussed. The data requirements of a plate-out modelling program are discussed, and a brief description is given of parallel work programs on thermal/hydraulic reactor behaviour and fuel modelling, both of which will provide inputs to the plate-out program under development. The representation of a GCR system used in SRD studies is presented, and the equations governing iodine adsorption, desorption and transport round the circuit are derived. The status of SRD's plate-out program is described, and the type of sensitivity studies to be undertaken with the partially-developed computer program in order to identify the most useful lines for future research is discussed. (author)

  3. A source term estimation method for a nuclear accident using atmospheric dispersion models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Minsik; Ohba, Ryohji; Oura, Masamichi

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop an operational source term estimation (STE) method applicable for a nuclear accident like the incident that occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in 2011. The new STE method presented here is based on data from atmospheric dispersion...... models and short-range observational data around the nuclear power plants.The accuracy of this method is validated with data from a wind tunnel study that involved a tracer gas release from a scaled model experiment at Tokai Daini nuclear power station in Japan. We then use the methodology developed...... and validated through the effort described in this manuscript to estimate the release rate of radioactive material from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station....

  4. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  5. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  6. System Response Analysis of Rod Ejection Accident for APR1400 Using KNAP Hot Spot Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yo-Han; Ha, Sang-Jun; Jun, Hwang-Yong

    2006-01-01

    Korea Electric Power Research Institute (KEPRI) has been developed the non-loss-of-coolant accident (non- LOCA) analysis methodology, called as the Korea Non- LOCA Analysis Package (KNAP), for the typical Optimized Power Reactor 1000 (OPR1000) plants. Considering current licensing methodology conducted by ABB-CE, however, the KNAP could be applied to Advanced Power Reactor 1400 (APR1400) also. In spite of some difference in design concepts of two plant types, there is a close resemblance between their nuclear steam supply systems (NSSS). So, in this study, the rod ejection accident (REA) event was analyzed using KNAP hot spot model (HSM) for APR1400 to estimate the feasibility of the application and the results were compared with those given in APR1400 Standard Safety Analysis Report (SSAR), which were calculated using the CESEC-III and STRIKIN-II code of ABB-CE. Through the study, it was concluded that the KNAP could be applicable to APR1400 on the view point of REA

  7. Modeling of severe accident sequences with the new modules CESAR and DIVA of ASTEC system code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pignet, Sophie; Guillard, Gaetan; Barre, Francois; Repetto, Georges

    2003-01-01

    Systems of computer codes, so-called 'integral' codes, are being developed to simulate the scenario of a hypothetical severe accident in a light water reactor, from the initial event until the possible radiological release of fission products out of the containment. They couple the predominant physical phenomena that occur in the different reactor zones and simulate the actuation of safety systems by procedures and by operators. In order to allow to study a great number of scenarios, a compromise must be found between precision of results and calculation time: one day of accident time should take less than one day of real time to simulate on a PC computer. This search of compromise is a real challenge for such integral codes. The development of the ASTEC integral code was initiated jointly by IRSN and GRS as an international reference code. The latest version 1.0 of ASTEC, including the new modules CESAR and DIVA which model the behaviour of the reactor cooling system and the core degradation, is presented here. Validation of the modules and one plant application are described

  8. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

    2014-05-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  9. HYSPLIT's Capability for Radiological Aerial Monitoring in Nuclear Emergencies: Model Validation and Assessment on the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Gunhyo; Kim, Juyoul; Shin, Hyeongki

    2007-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident took place on 25 April 1986 in Ukraine. Consequently large amount of radionuclides were released into the atmosphere. The release was a widespread distribution of radioactivity throughout the northern hemisphere, mainly across Europe. A total of 31 persons died as a consequence of the accident, and about 140 persons suffered various degrees of radiation sickness and health impairment in the acute health impact. The possible increase of cancer incidence has been a real and significant increase of carcinomas of the thyroid among the children living in the contaminated regions as the late health effects. Recently, a variety of atmospheric dispersion models have been developed and used around the world. Among them, HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)/ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) is being widely used. To verify the HYSPLIT model for radiological aerial monitoring in nuclear emergencies, a case study on the Chernobyl accident is performed

  10. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  11. Food safety after nuclear accidents. A Nordic model for national response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Nordic model for the management of food supplies and food safety after nuclear accidents addresses production distribution, sale, and consumption of food and drink. The model contains specific recommendations on intervention levels for distribution and consumption. The overriding aim is to keep the radiation dose to the population as low as reasonably achievable by the optimization of countermeasures. Upper levels of radiation doses which should not be exceeded are termed Primary Intervention Levels. A reasonable maximum dose level resulting from intake of food over a one-year period would be 1 mSv, and this level has been chosen as the starting point for the Nordic model. Maximum levels of radioactive substances in foodstuffs, are termed Derived Intervention Levels (DILs). DILs are established on the basis of the Primary Intervention Levels. A conservative approach is taken which involves additional precautionary assumptions and an extra margin of safety. Provided the DILs are adhered to, the actual radiation dose to which the population is exposed will constitute only a small fraction of the Primary Intervention Levels. The need may arise for specific dietary advise for certain types of food consumed by special population groups. The intervention levels must be adjusted if they cause adverse effects which are unacceptable to the population in general, for instance unfavourable socio-economic impacts. In extreme nuclear accident situations, it may become necessary to suspend the use of intervention levels for a period of time. The full report with scientific annexes was adopted by AeK-LIVS in April 1991, and published as report no. 1991:546 in the Nordic seminar series. In November 1991 the Nordic Council of Ministers requested that the model should be implemented by the national authorities in each of the Nordic countries. The publication contains an abbreviated version of the report. (EG)

  12. Recursive modeling of loss of control in human and organizational processes: a systemic model for accident analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontogiannis, Tom; Malakis, Stathis

    2012-09-01

    A recursive model of accident investigation is proposed by exploiting earlier work in systems thinking. Safety analysts can understand better the underlying causes of decision or action flaws by probing into the patterns of breakdown in the organization of safety. For this deeper analysis, a cybernetic model of organizational factors and a control model of human processes have been integrated in this article (i.e., the viable system model and the extended control model). The joint VSM-ECOM framework has been applied to a case study to help safety practitioners with the analysis of patterns of breakdown with regard to how operators and organizations manage goal conflicts, monitor work progress, recognize weak signals, align goals across teams, and adapt plans on the fly. The recursive accident representation brings together several organizational issues (e.g., the dilemma of autonomy versus compliance, or the interaction between structure and strategy) and addresses how operators adapt to challenges in their environment by adjusting their modes of functioning and recovery. Finally, it facilitates the transfer of knowledge from diverse incidents and near misses within similar domains of practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Reactivity insertion accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, J.M.L.; Nakata, H.; Yorihaz, H.

    1990-04-01

    The correct prediction of postulated accidents is the fundamental requirement for the reactor licensing procedures. Accident sequences and severity of their consequences depend upon the analysis which rely on analytical tools which must be validated against known experimental results. Present work presents a systematic approach to analyse and estimate the reactivity insertion accident sequences. The methodology is based on the CINETHICA code which solves the point-kinetics/thermohydraulic coupled equations with weighted temperature feedback. Comparison against SPERT experimental results shows good agreement for the step insertion accidents. (author) [pt

  14. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2011-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  15. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  16. Contempt-LT: a computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheat, L.L.; Wagner, R.J.; Niederauer, G.F.; Obenchain, C.F.

    1975-06-01

    CONTEMPT-LT is a digital computer program, written in FORTRAN IV, developed to describe the long-term behavior of water-cooled nuclear reactor containment systems subjected to postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. The program calculates the time variation of compartment pressures, temperatures, mass and energy inventories, heat structure temperature distributions, and energy exchange with adjacent compartments. The program is capable of describing the effects of leakage on containment response. Models are provided to describe fan cooler and cooling spray engineered safety systems. Up to four compartments can be modeled with CONTEMPT-LT, and any compartment except the reactor system may have both a liquid pool region and an air-vapor atmosphere region above the pool. Each region is assumed to have a uniform temperature, but the temperatures of the two regions may be different. CONTEMPT-LT can be used to model all current boiling water reactor pressure suppression systems, including containments with either vertical or horizontal vent systems. CONTEMPT-LT can also be used to model pressurized water reactor dry containments, subatmospheric containments, and dual volume containments with an annulus region, and can be used to describe containment responses in experimental containment systems. The program user defines which compartments are used, specifies input mass and energy additions, defines heat structure and leakage systems, and describes the time advancement and output control. CONTEMPT-LT source decks are available in double precision extended-binary-coded-decimal-interchange-code (EBCDIC) versions. Sample problems have been run on the IBM360/75 computer. (U.S.)

  17. Containment Evaluation under Severe Accidents (CESA): synthesis of the predictive calculations and analysis of the first experimental results obtained on the Civaux mock-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granger, L.; Rieg, C.Y.; Touret, J.P.; Fleury, F.; Nahas, G.; Danisch, R.; Brusa, L.; Millard, A.; Laborderie, C.; Ulm, F.; Contri, P.; Schimmelpfennig, K.; Barre, F.; Firnhaber, M.; Gauvain, J; Coulon, N.; Dutton, L.M.C.; Tuson, A.

    2001-01-01

    In 1996, EDF decided to build a containment model at the scale 1:3, the MAEVA mock-up, in order to check and study the behaviour of a pre-stressed concrete containment vessel without a liner in terms of mechanical strength and leaktightness, for loadings corresponding to its design and beyond design conditions. In parallel with the construction and testing of the mock-up, a cost-shared R and D action supported by the European Union, the CESA project, is dealing with quantification of leak rates through concrete cracks and porosity, predictive calculations of the behaviour of the mock-up and analysis of the experimental results. In this paper, we propose a synthesis of the main theoretical and experimental results, obtained after 2.5 years. It should however be noted that, due to some unexpected delays in the experimental programme, quite natural with such a huge and unique experimental set-up, only the design-basis accident sequences, already performed, have been reported in this paper. The first results are nevertheless very interesting, both from a scientific and nuclear utility point of view

  18. RaCon: a software tool serving to predict radiological consequences of various types of accident in support of emergency management and radiation monitoring management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svanda, J.; Hustakova, H.; Fiser, V.

    2008-01-01

    The RaCon software system, developed by the Nuclear Research Institute Rez, is described and its application when addressing various tasks in the domain of radiation accidents and nuclear safety (accidents at nuclear facilities, transport of radioactive material, terrorist attacks) are outlined. RaCon is intended for the prediction and evaluation of radiological consequences to population and rescue teams and for optimization of monitoring actions. The system provides support to emergency management when evaluating and devising actions to mitigate the consequences of radiation accidents. The deployment of RaCon within the system of radiation monitoring by mobile emergency teams or remote controlled UAV is an important application. Based on a prediction of the radiological situation, RaCon facilitates decision-making and control of the radiation monitoring system, and in turn, refines the prediction based on observed values. Furthermore, the system can perform simulations of evacuation patterns at the Dukovany NPP and at schools in the vicinity of the power plant and can provide support to emergency management should any such situation arise. (orig.)

  19. An analytical method to assess the damage and predict the residual strength of a ship in a shoal grounding accident scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun Bin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a simplified analytical method used to predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship hull after a shoal grounding accident is proposed. Shoal grounding accidents always lead to severe denting, though not tearing, of the ship bottom structure, which may threaten the global hull girder resistance and result in even worse consequences, such as hull collapse. Here, the degree of damage of the bottom structure is predicted by a series of analytical methods based on the plastic-elastic deformation mechanism. The energy dissipation of a ship bottom structure is obtained from individual components to determine the sliding distance of the seabed obstruction. Then, a new approach to assess the residual strength of the damaged ship subjected to shoal grounding is proposed based on the improved Smith's method. This analytical method is verified by comparing the results of the proposed method and those generated by numerical simulation using the software ABAQUS. The proposed analytical method can be used to assess the safety of a ship with a double bottom during its design phase and predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship after a shoal grounding accident occurs.

  20. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  1. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl NPP accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

    2013-03-01

    The coupled model LMDzORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5°×1.25°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.45°×0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels, respectively, extending up to mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 vertical levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The best choice for the model validation was the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986. This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. However, the best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to Atlas), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of

  3. Cloud diagnosis impact on deposition modelling applied to the Fukushima accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne

    2017-04-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in March 2011 resulted in the release of several hundred PBq of activity into the environment. Most of the radioactivity was released in a time period of about 40 days. Radioactivity was dispersed in the atmosphere and the ocean and subsequently traces of radionuclides were detected all over Japan. At the Fukushima airport for instance, a deposit as large as 36 kBq/m2 of Cs-137 was measured resulting of an atmospheric deposition of the plume. Both dry and wet deposition were probably involved since a raining event occurred on the 15th of March when the plume was passing nearby. The accident scenario have given rise to a number of scientific investigations. Atmospheric deposition, for example, was studied by utilizing atmospheric transport models. In atmospheric transport models, some parameters, such as cloud diagnosis, are derived from meteorological data. This cloud diagnosis is a key issue for wet deposition modelling since it allows to distinguish between two processes: in-cloud scavenging which corresponds to the collection of radioactive particles into the cloud and below-cloud scavenging consequent to the removal of radioactive material due to the falling drops. Several parametrizations of cloud diagnosis exist in the literature, using different input data: relative humidity, liquid water content, also. All these diagnosis return a large range of cloud base heights and cloud top heights. In this study, computed cloud diagnostics are compared to the observations at the Fukushima airport. Atmospheric dispersion simulations at Japan scale are then performed utilizing the most reliable ones. Impact on results are discussed.

  4. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  5. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  6. Model calculation of radiocaesium transfer into food products in semi-natural forest ecosystems in the Czech Republic after a nuclear reactor accident and an estimate of the population dose burden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svadlenkova, M.; Konecny, J.; Smutny, V.

    1996-01-01

    Radioactivity of food products from semi-natural forest ecosystems can contribute appreciably to the radiological burden of the human population following a nuclear accident, as found after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. In the Czech Republic, radiocaesium radioactivity has been measured, such as soil, mushrooms, bilberries, deer and boar. In this work, the data are employed to predict how a model accident of the Temelin nuclear power plant in southern Bohemia (which is under construction) would affect selected forest ecosystems in its surroundings. The dose commitment to the critical population group is also estimated. (author)

  7. Mechanistic prediction of fission product release under normal and accident conditions: key uncertainties that need better resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rest, J.

    1983-09-01

    A theoretical model has been used for predicting the behavior of fission gas and volatile fission products (VFPs) in UO 2 -base fuels during steady-state and transient conditions. This model represents an attempt to develop an efficient predictive capability for the full range of possible reactor operating conditions. Fission products released from the fuel are assumed to reach the fuel surface by successively diffusing (via atomic and gas-bubble mobility) from the grains to grain faces and then to the grain edges, where the fission products are released through a network of interconnected tunnels of fission-gas induced and fabricated porosity. The model provides for a multi-region calculation and uses only one size class to characterize a distribution of fission gas bubbles

  8. RASCAL [Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis]: A screening model for estimating doses from radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoreen, A.L.; Athey, G.F.; Sakenas, C.A.; McKenna, T.J.

    1988-01-01

    The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis (RASCAL) is a new MS-DOS-based dose assessment model which has been written for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use during response to radiological emergencies. RASCAL is designed to provide crude estimates of the effects of an accident while the accident is in progress and only limited information is available. It has been designed to be very simple to use and to run quickly. RASCAL is unique in that it estimates the source term based on fundamental plant conditions and does not rely solely on release rate estimation (e.g., Ci/sec of I-131). Therefore, it can estimate consequences of accidents involving unmonitored pathways or projected failures. RASCAL will replace the older model, IRDAM. 6 refs

  9. The application of the health effects models to the severe accident consequence analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling; Yeung, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Health Effect Model (HEM) is an important model used in the analysis of severe accidents consequence of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The accuracy of HEM affects the reliability of the assessment for the accidents consequences, and furthermore, the effectiveness of the emergency countermeasures taken for the health protection of the public around the NPPs. Based on the NUREG/CR4214 series reports, the paper sets appropriate parameters for HEM by studying both early and late HEMs used for domestic NPP accident consequence analysis. In the study, the Guangdong Daya Bay NPP is chosen as an example study to calculate the health risk of the Hong Kong population caused by Daya Bay NPP

  10. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other.'' The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs

  11. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  12. Development of systematic models for aerosol agglomeration and spray removal under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro

    2008-01-01

    Radionuclide behavior during various severe accident conditions has been addressed as one of the important issues to discuss environmental safety in nuclear power plants. The present paper deals with the development of analytical models and their validations for the agglomeration of multiple-component aerosol and spray removal that controls source terms to the environment of both aerosols and gaseous radionuclides during recirculation mode operation in a containment system for a light water reactor. As for aerosol agglomeration, the single collision kernel model that can cover all types of two-body collision of aerosol was developed. In addition, the dynamic model that can treat aerosol and vapor transfer leading to the equilibrium condition under the containment spray operation was developed. The validations of the present models for multiple-component aerosol growth by agglomeration were performed by comparisons with Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and AB experiments at Hanford Engineering National Laboratory (HEDL). In addition, the spray removal models were applied to the analysis of containment spray experiment (CSE) at HEDL. The results calculated by the models showed good agreements with experimental results. (author)

  13. Modeling operator actions during a small break loss-of-coolant accident in a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, L.S.; Ortiz, M.G.

    1991-01-01

    A small break loss-of-accident (SBLOCA) in a typical Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plant was modeled using RELAP5/MOD3. This work was performed as part of the United States Regulatory Commission's (USNRC) Code, Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) study. The break was initiated by severing one high pressure injection (HPI) line at the cold leg. Thus, the small break was further aggravated by reduced HPI flow. Comparisons between scoping runs with minimal operator action, and full operator action, clearly showed that the operator plays a key role in recovering the plant. Operator actions were modeled based on the emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and the Technical Bases Document for the EOPs. The sequence of operator actions modeled here is only one of several possibilities. Different sequences of operator actions are possible for a given accident because of the subjective decisions the operator must make when determining the status of the plant, hence, which branch of the EOP to follow. To assess the credibility of the modeled operator actions, these actions and results of the simulated accident scenario were presented to operator examiners who are familiar with B ampersand W nuclear power plants. They agreed that, in general, the modeled operator actions conform to the requirements set forth in the EOPs and are therefore plausible. This paper presents the method for modeling the operator actions and discusses the simulated accident scenario from the viewpoint of operator actions

  14. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  15. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic assessment of spent fuel accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    If there should be an accident involving drainage of all the water from a spent fuel pool, the fuel elements will heat up until the heat produced by radioactive decay is balanced by that removed by natural convection to air, thermal radiation, and other means. If the temperatures become high enough for the cladding or other materials to ignite due to rapid oxidation, then some of the fuel might melt, leading to an undesirable release of radioactive materials. The amount of melting is dependent upon the fuel loading configuration and its age, the oxidation and melting characteristics of the materials, and the potential effectiveness of recovery actions. The authors have developed methods for modeling the pertinent physical phenomena and integrating the results with a probabilistic treatment of the uncertainty distributions. The net result is a set of complementary cumulative distribution functions for the amount of fuel melted

  16. Structural stability of the market model after the Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.R.

    1984-01-01

    This article examines the stability of alpha and beta in the market model resulting from the Three Mile Island accident. The data consist of weekly returns on 70 utility stocks. Both a dummy variable test and the Fisher F statistics are utilized to test for stability. In addition to the individual stocks, the 70 utilities are partioned into two portfolios for the test: nuclear and non-nuclear. The main conclusions are: for the non-nuclear portfolio, no change is observed; for the nuclear portfolio, alpha fell and beta rose (the impact, however, is transitory and insignificant); and the behavior of the residuals suggests that the result is consistent with an efficient market. 17 references, 3 tables

  17. A Study of The Relationship Between The Components of The Five-Factor Model of Personality and The Occurrence of Occupational Accidents in Industry Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsanollah Habibi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Accidents are among the most important problems of both the developed and the developing countries. Individual factors and personality traits are the primary causes of human errors and contribute to accidents. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the components of the five-factor model of personality and the occurrence of occupational accidents in industrial workers. The independent T-test indicated that there is a meaningful relationship between the personality traits and accident proneness. In the two groups of industry workers injured in occupational accidents and industry workers without any occupational accidents, there is a significant relationship between personality traits, neuroticism (p=0.001, openness to experience (p=0.001, extraversion (p=0.024 and conscientiousness (p=0.021. Nonetheless, concerning the personality trait of agreeableness (p = 0.09, the group of workers with accidents did not differ significantly from the workers without any accidents. The results showed that there is a direct and significant relationship between accident proneness and the personality traits of neuroticism and openness to experience. Furthermore, there is a meaningful but inverse correlation between accident proneness and the personality traits of extraversion and conscientiousness, while there was no relationship between accident proneness and the personality trait of agreeableness.

  18. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

  19. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Xin; Li Ke-Ping; Luo Zi-Yan; Zhou Jin

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  20. Prediction of corium debris characteristics in lower plenum of a nordic BWR in different accident scenarios using MELCOR code - 15367

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phung, V.A.; Galushin, S.; Raub, S.; Goronovski, A.; Villanueva, W.; Koeoep, K; Grishchenko, D.; Kudinov, P.

    2015-01-01

    Severe accident management strategy in Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) relies on ex-vessel core debris coolability. The mode of corium melt release from the vessel determines conditions for ex-vessel accident progression and threats to containment integrity, e.g., formation of a non-coolable debris bed and possibility of energetic steam explosion. In-vessel core degradation and relocation is an important stage which determines characteristics of corium debris in the vessel lower plenum, such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat. These properties affect debris reheating and remelting, melt interactions with the vessel structures, and possibly vessel failure and melt ejection mode. Core degradation and relocation is contingent upon the accident scenario parameters such as recovery time and capacity of safety systems. The goal of this work is to obtain a better understanding of the impact of the accident scenarios and timing of the events on core relocation phenomena and resulting properties of the debris bed in the vessel lower plenum of Nordic BWRs. In this study, severe accidents in a Nordic BWR reference plant are initiated by a station black out event, which is the main contributor to core damage frequency of the reactor. The work focuses on identifying ranges of debris bed characteristics in the lower plenum as functions of the accident scenario with different recovery timing and capacity of safety systems. The severe accident analysis code MELCOR coupled with GA-IDPSA is used in this work. GA-IDPSA is a Genetic Algorithm-based Integrated Deterministic Probabilistic Safety Analysis tool, which has been developed to search uncertain input parameter space. The search is guided by different target functions. Scenario grouping and clustering approach is applied in order to estimate the ranges of debris characteristics and identify scenario regions of core relocation that can lead to significantly different debris bed

  1. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  2. Accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J.; Monty, B.S.; Liparulo, N.J.; Desaedeleer, G.

    1989-01-01

    The foundation of the framework for a Severe Accident Management Program is the contained in the Probabilistic Safety Study (PSS) or the Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE) for a specific plant. The development of a Severe Accident Management Program at a plant is based on the use of the information, in conjunction with other applicable information. A Severe Accident Management Program must address both accident prevention and accident mitigation. The overall Severe Accident Management framework must address these two facets, as a living program in terms of gathering the evaluating information, the readiness to respond to an event. Significant international experience in the development of severe accident management programs exist which should provide some direction for the development of Severe Accident Management in the U.S. This paper reports that the two most important elements of a Severe Accident Management Program are the Emergency Consultation process and the standards for measuring the effectiveness of individual Severe Accident Management Programs at utilities

  3. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  4. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  5. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....

  6. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  7. Unavoidable Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Grady, Mark F.

    2009-01-01

    In negligence law, "unavoidable accident" is the risk that remains when an actor has used due care. The counterpart of unavoidable accident is "negligent harm." Negligence law makes parties immune for unavoidable accident even when they have used less than due care. Courts have developed a number of methods by which they "sort" accidents to unavoidable accident or to negligent harm, holding parties liable only for the latter. These sorting techniques are interesting in their own right and als...

  8. A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.

  9. Overview of core disruptive accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchaterre, J.F.

    1977-01-01

    An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

  10. Comparative analysis of a hypothetical loss-of-flow accident in an irradiated LMFBR core using different computer models for a common benchmark problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wider, H.U.; Devos, J.; Nguyen, H.; Goethem, G. Van.; Miles, K.J.; Tentner, A.M.; Pizzica, P.

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of an international exercise to compare whole-core accident calculations of the initiation phase of an unprotected LOF accident in a large irradiated LMFBR. The results for the accident phase before pin failure are in rather good agreement except for the fuel pin mechanics predictions. There are also some differences in the sodium boiling calculations but the voiding rates which are of key importance are very similar. The post - failure fuel motion and sodium voiding predictions show significant differences. However, the majority of these calculations agree that temporary fuel accumulations occur which increase the power beyond that caused by sodium voiding alone

  11. A novel machine learning model to predict abnormal Runway Occupancy Times and observe related precursors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrema, Herrema Floris; Treve, V; Desart, B; Curran, R.; Visser, H.G.

    2017-01-01

    Accidents on the runway triggered the development and implementation of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and predict risk percursors and to mitigate risks before accidents occur. For certain predictions Machine

  12. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  13. A model of the operator cognitive behaviors during the steam generator tube rupture accident at a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mun, J. H.; Kang, C. S.

    1996-01-01

    An integrated framework of modeling the human operator cognitive behavior during nuclear power plant accident scenarios is presented. It incorporates both plant and operator models. The basic structure of the operator model is similar to that of existing cognitive models, however, this model differs from those existing ones largely in two aspects. First, using frame and membership function, the pattern matching behavior, which is identified as the dominant cognitive process of operators responding to an accident sequence, is explicitly implemented in this model. Second, the non-task-related human cognitive activities like effects of stress and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias and availability bias, are also considered. A computer code, OPEC is assembled to simulate this framework and is actually applied to an SGTR sequence, and the resultant simulated behaviors of operator are obtained. 28 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs. (author)

  14. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  15. Sensitivity study of the wet deposition schemes in the modelling of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Thomas; Adachi, Kouji; Didier, Damien; Igarashi, Yasuhito

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima-Daiichi release of radioactivity is a relevant event to study the atmospheric dispersion modelling of radionuclides. Actually, the atmospheric deposition onto the ground may be studied through the map of measured Cs-137 established consecutively to the accident. The limits of detection were low enough to make the measurements possible as far as 250km from the nuclear power plant. This large scale deposition has been modelled with the Eulerian model ldX. However, several weeks of emissions in multiple weather conditions make it a real challenge. Besides, these measurements are accumulated deposition of Cs-137 over the whole period and do not inform of deposition mechanisms involved: in-cloud, below-cloud, dry deposition. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed in order to understand wet deposition mechanisms. It has been shown in a previous study (Quérel et al, 2016) that the choice of the wet deposition scheme has a strong impact on the assessment of the deposition patterns. Nevertheless, a "best" scheme could not be highlighted as it depends on the selected criteria: the ranking differs according to the statistical indicators considered (correlation, figure of merit in space and factor 2). A possibility to explain the difficulty to discriminate between several schemes was the uncertainties in the modelling, resulting from the meteorological data for instance. Since the move of the plume is not properly modelled, the deposition processes are applied with an inaccurate activity in the air. In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, new meteorological fields at higher resolution (Sekiyama et al., 2013) were provided and allows to reconsider the previous study. An updated study including these new meteorology data is presented. In addition, a focus on several releases causing deposition in located areas during known period was done. This helps to better understand the mechanisms of deposition involved following the

  16. GASFLOW: A computational model to analyze accidents in nuclear containment and facility buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, J.R.; Nichols, B.D.; Wilson, T.L.; Lam, K.L.; Spore, J.W.; Niederauer, G.F.

    1993-01-01

    GASFLOW is a finite-volume computer code that solves the time-dependent, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for multiple gas species. The fluid-dynamics algorithm is coupled to the chemical kinetics of combusting liquids or gases to simulate diffusion or propagating flames in complex geometries of nuclear containment or confinement and facilities' buildings. Fluid turbulence is calculated to enhance the transport and mixing of gases in rooms and volumes that may be connected by a ventilation system. The ventilation system may consist of extensive ductwork, filters, dampers or valves, and fans. Condensation and heat transfer to walls, floors, ceilings, and internal structures are calculated to model the appropriate energy sinks. Solid and liquid aerosol behavior is simulated to give the time and space inventory of radionuclides. The solution procedure of the governing equations is a modified Los Alamos ICE'd-ALE methodology. Complex facilities can be represented by separate computational domains (multiblocks) that communicate through overlapping boundary conditions. The ventilation system is superimposed throughout the multiblock mesh. Gas mixtures and aerosols are transported through the free three-dimensional volumes and the restricted one-dimensional ventilation components as the accident and fluid flow fields evolve. Combustion may occur if sufficient fuel and reactant or oxidizer are present and have an ignition source. Pressure and thermal loads on the building, structural components, and safety-related equipment can be determined for specific accident scenarios. GASFLOW calculations have been compared with large oil-pool fire tests in the 1986 HDR containment test T52.14, which is a 3000-kW fire experiment. The computed results are in good agreement with the observed data

  17. Study of heat and mass transfer phenomena in fuel assembly models under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yefanov, A.D.; Kalyakin, C.G.; Loshchinin, V.M.; Pomet'ko, R.S.; Sergeev, V.V.; Shumsky, R.V.

    1996-01-01

    The majority of the material in support of the thermal - hydraulic safety of WWER core was obtained on single - assembly models containing a relatively small number of elements - heater rods. Upgrading the requirements to the reactor safety leads to the necessity for studying phenomena in channels representing the cross - sectional core dimensions and non - uniform radial power generation. Under such conditions, the contribution of natural convection can be significant in some core zones, including the occurrence of reverse flows and interchannel instability. These phenomena can have an important influence on heat transfer processes. Such influence is especially drastical under accident conditions associated with ceasing the forced circulation over the circuit. A number of urgent reactor safety problems at low operating parameters is related with the computer code verification and certification. One of the important trends in the reactor safety research is concerned with the rod bundle reflooding and verificational calculations of this phenomenon. To assess the water cooled reactor safety, the best fit computer codes are employed, which make it possible to simulate accident and transient operating conditions in a reactor installation. One of the most widely known computer codes is the RELAP5/MOD3 Code. The paper presents the comparison of the results calculated using this computer code with the test data on 4 - rod bundle quenching, which were obtained at the SSCRF-IPPE. Recently, the investigations on the steam - zirconium reaction kinetics have been performed at the SSCFR-IPPE and are being presently performed for the purpose of developing new and verifying available computer codes. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs

  18. Predictive Models, How good are they?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge

    The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...

  19. Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

    2013-03-01

    Oil spill research has significantly increased mainly as a result of the severe consequences experienced from industry accidents. Oil spill models are currently able to simulate the processes that determine the fate of oil slicks, playing an important role in disaster prevention, control and mitigation, generating valuable information for decision makers and the population in general. On the other hand, satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery has demonstrated significant potential in accidental oil spill detection, when they are accurately differentiated from look-alikes. The combination of both tools can lead to breakthroughs, particularly in the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This paper presents a hindcast simulation of the oil slick resulting from the Motor Tanker (MT) Cercal oil spill, listed by the Portuguese Navy as one of the major oil spills in the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. The accident took place nearby Leix˜oes Harbour, North of the Douro River, Porto (Portugal) on the 2nd of October 1994. The oil slick was segmented from available European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite SAR images, using an algorithm based on a simplified version of the K-means clustering formulation. The image-acquired information, added to the initial conditions and forcings, provided the necessary inputs for the oil spill model. Simulations were made considering the tri-dimensional hydrodynamics in a crossscale domain, from the interior of the Douro River Estuary to the open-ocean on the Iberian Atlantic shelf. Atmospheric forcings (from ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), river forcings (from SNIRH - the Portuguese National Information System of the Hydric Resources) and tidal forcings (from LNEC - the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering), including baroclinic gradients (NOAA), were considered. The lack of data for validation purposes only allowed the use of the

  20. Radioiodine dosimetry and prediction of consequences of thyroid exposure of the Russian population following the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvonova, I.A.; Balonov, M.I.

    1993-01-01

    In the early period after the Chernobyl accident, analysis of patterns of 131 I exposure of the human thyroid showed that contaminated milk was the basic source of 131 I intake among the inhabitants of Russia. The equipment and techniques used for measurement of the 131 I content in the thyroids of these individuals are described in this work. A model of the 131 I intake, taking into account protective actions, and a method of thyroid dose calculation are discussed. The mean thyroid dose and frequency distributions of the thyroid doses to inhabitants of towns and villages of the Bryansk, Tula and Orel regions of Russia are presented. The mean dose to the thyroids of children living in the villages was 2 to 5 times higher than the dose to adult thyroids; for children living in the towns, the mean dose was 1.5 to 12 times higher. The mean thyroid mass in adult inhabitants of the Bryansk region was 27 g, which exceeded the value for a standard man (20 g) and was taken into account in the dosimetric calculations. The technique for reconstructing the mean and individual thyroid doses was based on the correlation between thyroid dose and several parameters: Surface 137 Cs activity in soil, dose rate in air in May of 1986, 131 I content in local milk, milk consumption rate, and 134 Cs + 137 Cs content in the body. The collective thyroid dose to inhabitants of the most contaminated regions of Russia is estimated and a thyroid cancer rate prognosis is derived. The need for intensified medical care for the critical group - children of preschool age during 1986 - is based on a significant increase in the number of projected thyroid cancers and adenomas. 32 refs., 10 figs., 15 tabs

  1. NONLINEAR MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF CHEMICAL PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVA R. G.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A new algorithm for model predictive control is presented. The algorithm utilizes a simultaneous solution and optimization strategy to solve the model's differential equations. The equations are discretized by equidistant collocation, and along with the algebraic model equations are included as constraints in a nonlinear programming (NLP problem. This algorithm is compared with the algorithm that uses orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The equidistant collocation algorithm results in simpler equations, providing a decrease in computation time for the control moves. Simulation results are presented and show a satisfactory performance of this algorithm.

  2. γ radiation level simulation and analysis with MCNP in EPR containment during severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng Jun; Liu Shuhuan; Wang Yang; Zhai Liang

    2013-01-01

    The γ dosimetry model based on the EPR core structure, material composition and the designed shielding system was established. The γ-ray dose rate distributions in EPR containment under different conditions including normal operation state, loss-of-coolant accident and core melt severe accident were simulated with MCNP5, and the calculation results under normal operation state and severe accident were compared and analyzed respectively with that of the designed limit. The study results may provide some relative data reference for EPR core accident prediction and reactor accident emergency decision making. (authors)

  3. Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

    2012-03-09

    Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

  4. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  5. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang Il

    2011-01-01

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  6. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  7. Development of a PWR-W GOTHIC 3D model for containment accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocanegra, Rafael; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Fernández-Cosials, Mikel Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The development of several 3D PWR containment models is described. • A Large Break LOCA is simulated. • The temperature and velocity fields are highly dependent on three-dimensional phenomena. • The pressure evolution is qualitatively similar in all models with small quantitative differences. - Abstract: The confinement of radioactive material in a nuclear power plant, including the discharge control and the release minimization, is a fundamental safety function to be ensured in a design basis accident (DBA). For plant licensing analysis, the containment is usually modeled with a lumped parameter approach. Inherent to the lumped parameter approach is the assumption that within each region the fluid is well mixed. However, the containment is a large building with a complex configuration and it is distributed in several compartments that avoid the well mixing of the fluid and could have three-dimensional effects that affect the thermal–hydraulic behavior. Therefore, the commonly used lumped parameter approach may not be enough to capture these effects. In order to study these assumptions, four generic PWR containment models have been developed for Mass and Energy (M&E) release analysis with GOTHIC 8.0 (QA) code, three of them being subdivided and the fourth one is a lumped parameter model. A Large Break LOCA is simulated in order to compare the thermal–hydraulic behavior of the different models. The results show a high dependence on the three-dimensional phenomena, especially the temperature and velocity distribution. In contrast, the pressure evolution is qualitatively similar in all models with small quantitative differences.

  8. Raim – A model for iodine behavior in containment under severe accident condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-Chul Kim

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Following a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, iodine is a major contributor to the potential health risks for the public. Because the amount of iodine released largely depends on its volatility, iodine's behavior in containment has been extensively studied in international programs such as International Source Term Programme-Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation (EPICUR, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD-Behaviour of Iodine Project, and OECD-Source Term Evaluation and Mitigation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS has joined these programs and is developing a simplified, stand-alone iodine chemistry model, RAIM (Radio-Active Iodine chemistry Model, based on the IMOD methodology and other previous studies. This model deals with chemical reactions associated with the formation and destruction of iodine species and surface reactions in the containment atmosphere and the sump in a simple manner. RAIM was applied to a simulation of four EPICUR tests and one Radioiodine Test Facility test, which were carried out in aqueous or gaseous phases. After analysis, the results show a trend of underestimation of organic and molecular iodine for the gas-phase experiments, the opposite of that for the aqueous-phase ones, whereas the total amount of volatile iodine species agrees well between the experiment and the analysis result.

  9. RAIM-A model for iodine behavior in containment under severe accident condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Han Chul; Cho, Yeong Hun [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Following a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, iodine is a major contributor to the potential health risks for the public. Because the amount of iodine released largely depends on its volatility, iodine's behavior in containment has been extensively studied in international programs such as International Source Term Programme-Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation (EPICUR), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-Behaviour of Iodine Project, and OECD-Source Term Evaluation and Mitigation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) has joined these programs and is developing a simplified, stand-alone iodine chemistry model, RAIM (Radio-Active Iodine chemistry Model), based on the IMOD methodology and other previous studies. This model deals with chemical reactions associated with the formation and destruction of iodine species and surface reactions in the containment atmosphere and the sump in a simple manner. RAIM was applied to a simulation of four EPICUR tests and one Radioiodine Test Facility test, which were carried out in aqueous or gaseous phases. After analysis, the results show a trend of underestimation of organic and molecular iodine for the gas-phase experiments, the opposite of that for the aqueous-phase ones, whereas the total amount of volatile iodine species agrees well between the experiment and the analysis result.

  10. Structural evaluation of electrosleeved tubes under severe accident transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1999-01-01

    A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth model and the Hall-Petch relationship were used to calculate the loss of flow stress as a function of time and temperature during the accident. Available tensile test data as well as high temperature failure tests on notched Electrosleeved tube specimens were used to derive the basic parameters of the failure model. The model was used to predict the failure temperatures of Electrosleeved tubes with axial cracks in the parent tube during postulated severe accident transients

  11. Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

    2018-03-05

    The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling of the transfer of CS-137 from air to crops, milk, beef and human body following the Chernobyl accident, in a location in Central Bohemia. Test of the model PRYMA T1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrasco, E.; Garcia-Olivares, A.; Suanez, A.; Robles, B. Simon, I.; Cancio, D.

    1994-01-01

    This work was made in the frame of the research programme on validation of models for the transfer of radionuclides in the terrestrial, urban and aquatic environments. The acronym of this programme is VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) and is coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC). The scenario was named CB and was presented by the Multiple Pathway Working group. The scenario description was at the beginning a blind test, that is without knowing the location or the measured concentrations and doses. The input information included data of contamination in Cs-137 from the Chernobyl accident in Central Europe, in air and soils and more description of the scenario (data about crops, cattele, demography, human diet, etc.). The aim of the exercise was the contrast between model results and between observed data and model predictions. In this work the results obtained by the CIEMAT-IMA group of modelers are shown and discussed

  13. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  14. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  15. Modeling the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive effluents in a nuclear accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, Sorin

    2002-01-01

    In case of a nuclear accident, which could lead to release of radioactive contaminants, fastest countermeasures are needed related to sheltering, iodine distribution, evacuation and interdiction of food and water consumption. All these decisions should be based either on estimation of inhaled dose and the dose due to external exposure for public, or on the estimation of radioactive concentration in food (which will depend on the radioactive concentration in air and ground deposition). The dispersion model used, was a Gaussian 'puff' model. The vertical dispersion was considered not dependent on the release high. The used meteorological data are specific for the SCN - Pitesti site, collected every hour for one year. The meteorological data file contains: the wind speed (in m/s), wind direction (degrees clockwise from north), atmospheric stability category, precipitation rate (in mm/h) and the high of the mixing layer (in m). A hypothetical major nuclear accident at TRIGA - SSR of INR - Pitesti, due to a serious damage of the reactor core leading, to a large release of radioactive contaminants was examined. The release was considered as a single phase with of one hour duration. The release factors for the considered isotopic mixture are 100% noble gases (of the reactor core inventory), 40% iodine (of the reactor core inventory) and 40% particulate, i.e., 40% of the fission products of core fission products inventory, released as particles. The accuracy of the model could be increased by implementation of the code on a real-time system, where the acquisition of the parameters done is on-line, namely, the data are introduced as soon as the modification of meteorological and dosimetric conditions are produced. In this case, the parameters used in formulas can be adjusted according with the field situation. Unfortunately the real-time systems need more powerful resources: monitoring stations which can measure and send on-line the data and which can cover a large area

  16. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  17. Baryogenesis model predicting antimatter in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.

    2003-01-01

    Cosmic ray and gamma-ray data do not rule out antimatter domains in the Universe, separated at distances bigger than 10 Mpc from us. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the possible generation of vast antimatter structures during the early Universe evolution. We discuss a SUSY-condensate baryogenesis model, predicting large separated regions of matter and antimatter. The model provides generation of the small locally observed baryon asymmetry for a natural initial conditions, it predicts vast antimatter domains, separated from the matter ones by baryonically empty voids. The characteristic scale of antimatter regions and their distance from the matter ones is in accordance with observational constraints from cosmic ray, gamma-ray and cosmic microwave background anisotropy data

  18. Models of hemapoietic changes on the basis of systematically collected case histories of radiation accident victims as well as pathophysiologically evaluated patients after chronic radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fliedner, T.M.

    2004-01-01

    The research project ''Models of Hematopoietic Changes on the Basis of Systematically Collected Case Histories of Radiation Accident Victims as well as Pathophysiologically Evaluated Patients after Chronic Radiation Exposure'' required the investigation of four major research problem areas. First of all, biomathematical models were improved or newly developed allowing the simulation of the radiation induced response patterns of granulocytes, lymphocytes and blood platelets. The compartment model approach allowed the establishment of the correlation of such blood cell changes to the extent of damage at the level of hemopoietic stem cells distributed throughout the skeleton. The utilization of neural-network techniques resulted in a ''synergetic'' model that enables the medical doctor - using blood cell changes within the first 5-6 days after exposure - to predict the further course of illness and to allow a rational approach to clinical management. Secondly, available information on the clinical consequences of radiation exposure on more than 800 accident victims enabled the team to develop an entirely new concept to recognize and treat such persons. For this approach the biomathematical models were used to identify ''response categories'' (rather than dosimetrically defined ''exposure categories'') with an organ specific grading code of the severity of radiation-induced damage. This grading allowed the semi-quantitative damage assessment of the hemopoiesis, the neurovascular system, the gastrointestinal as well as the cutaneous system. It forms the basis for a ''weighted'' prognosis and for the logistics of radiation accident medical management. In the third project domain, models were developed to understand pathophysiological mechanisms of biological consequences of chronic radiation in human beings (former USSR) as well as in a preclinical dog study (USA). From a large group of patients with the diagnosis of ''Chronic Radiation Sickness'' more than 80 were

  19. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  20. Nuclear criticality safety: general. 3. Tokaimura Criticality Accident: Point Model Stochastic Neutronic Interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechitoua, Boukhmes

    2001-01-01

    step is based on the knowledge of the reactivity insertion. 2. Initiation probability for one neutron P(t). 3. Initiation probability with the neutron source P S (t). Japanese specialists told us that the accident happened during the seventh batch pouring. They estimated the k eff before and at the end of this operation: After the sixth batch, K=0.981, and at the end of the seventh batch, K=1.030. When the accident happened (neutron burst), 3 $ was inserted in 15 s, so if we suppose a linear insertion, we have a slope equal to 20 c/s. We may write K(t) = 1 + wt with w = 0.2 β = 0.00160/s. During the accident, there was between 14 and 16 kg of uranium with an enrichment of 18.8%. We have calculated P S (t) and we have taken into account six internal source levels: 1. spontaneous fission: 150 to 170 to 200 n/s; 2. (α, n) reactions and others of this type, and amplification of the internal source during the delayed critical phase: 500 to 1000 to 2000 n/s. In Fig. 2, we can see that the initiation occurred almost surely before 7 s and with a probability close to 0.46 before 2 s with a source of 200 n/s. With a source of 2000 n/s, we have higher initiation probabilities; for example, the initiation occurred almost surely before 2 s and with a probability close to 0.77 before 1 s after the critical time. These results are interesting because they show that a supercritical system does not lead immediately to initiation. One may have short supercritical excursion with no neutron production. The point model approach is useful for gaining a good understanding of what can be the stochastic neutronic contributio