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Sample records for accident prediction model

  1. ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR UNSIGNALISED URBAN JUNCTIONS IN GHANA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed SALIFU, MSc., PhD, MIHT, MGhIE

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide an improved method for safety appraisal in Ghana through the development and application of suitable accident prediction models for unsignalised urban junctions. A case study was designed comprising 91 junctions selected from the two most cosmopolitan cities in Ghana. A wide range of traffic and road data together with the corresponding accident data for each junction for the three-year period 1996-1998 was utilized in the model development p...

  2. Contribution to Accident Prediction Models Development for Rural Two-Lane Roads in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Draženko Glavić

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades numerous research efforts have been conducted worldwide to determine the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic and road characteristics. So far, the mentioned studies have not been carried out in Serbia and in the region. This paper represents one of the first attempts to develop accident prediction models in Serbia. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review, describes procedures for collection and analysis of the traffic accident data, as well as the methodology used to develop the accident prediction models. The paper presents models obtained by both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The obtained results are compared to the results of other studies and comparisons are discussed. Finally, the paper presents conclusions and important points for future research. The results of this research can find theoretical as well as practical application.

  3. Explaining and predicting workplace accidents using data-mining techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, T.; Paz, M.; Martin, J.E.; Matias, J.M.; Garcia, J.F.; Taboada, J.

    2011-01-01

    Current research into workplace risk is mainly conducted using conventional descriptive statistics, which, however, fail to properly identify cause-effect relationships and are unable to construct models that could predict accidents. The authors of the present study modelled incidents and accidents in two companies in the mining and construction sectors in order to identify the most important causes of accidents and develop predictive models. Data-mining techniques (decision rules, Bayesian networks, support vector machines and classification trees) were used to model accident and incident data compiled from the mining and construction sectors and obtained in interviews conducted soon after an incident/accident occurred. The results were compared with those for a classical statistical techniques (logistic regression), revealing the superiority of decision rules, classification trees and Bayesian networks in predicting and identifying the factors underlying accidents/incidents.

  4. Explaining and predicting workplace accidents using data-mining techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivas, T., E-mail: trivas@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Paz, M., E-mail: mpaz.minas@gmail.co [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Martin, J.E., E-mail: jmartin@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Matias, J.M., E-mail: jmmatias@uvigo.e [Dpto. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Garcia, J.F., E-mail: jgarcia@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Taboada, J., E-mail: jtaboada@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain)

    2011-07-15

    Current research into workplace risk is mainly conducted using conventional descriptive statistics, which, however, fail to properly identify cause-effect relationships and are unable to construct models that could predict accidents. The authors of the present study modelled incidents and accidents in two companies in the mining and construction sectors in order to identify the most important causes of accidents and develop predictive models. Data-mining techniques (decision rules, Bayesian networks, support vector machines and classification trees) were used to model accident and incident data compiled from the mining and construction sectors and obtained in interviews conducted soon after an incident/accident occurred. The results were compared with those for a classical statistical techniques (logistic regression), revealing the superiority of decision rules, classification trees and Bayesian networks in predicting and identifying the factors underlying accidents/incidents.

  5. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  6. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  7. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  8. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

  9. M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

    2016-11-01

    This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1996-09-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation is confirmed by further tests at high temperatures as well as by finite element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation is confirmed by finite element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure is developed and validated by tests under varying temperature and pressure loading expected during severe accidents

  11. Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1980-05-01

    A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar

  12. A Model for Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on Driver Personality Traits Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Čubranić-Dobrodolac

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The model proposed in this paper uses four psychological instruments for assessing driver behaviour and personality traits aiming to find a relationship between the considered constructs and the occurrence of traffic accidents. A Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 was used for the assessment of impulsivity, Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ for assessing the aggressiveness while driving, Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ and the Questionnaire for self-assessment of driving ability. Besides these instruments, the participants filled out an extensive demographic survey. Within the statistical analysis, in addition to the descriptive indicators, correlation coefficients were calculated and four hierarchical regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive power of personality traits on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Further, to confirm the results and to obtain additional information about the relationship between the considered variables, the structural equation modelling and binary logistic regression have been implemented. A sample of this research covered 305 drivers, of which there were 100 bus drivers and 102 truck drivers, as well as 103 drivers of privately owned vehicles. The results indicate that BIS-11 and ADBQ questionnaires show the best predictive power which means that impulsivity and aggressiveness as personality traits have the greatest influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. This research could be useful in many fields, such as the design of selection procedures for professional drivers, development of programs for the prevention of traffic accidents and violations of law, rehabilitation of drivers who have been deprived of the driving license, etc.

  13. Prediction of hydrogen concentration in nuclear power plant containment under severe accidents using cascaded fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun, E-mail: magyna@chosun.ac.kr

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • We present a hydrogen-concentration prediction method in an NPP containment. • The cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) is used in this prediction model. • The CFNN model is much better than the existing FNN model. • This prediction can help prevent severe accidents in NPP due to hydrogen explosion. - Abstract: Recently, severe accidents in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have attracted worldwide interest since the Fukushima accident. If the hydrogen concentration in an NPP containment is increased above 4% in atmospheric pressure, hydrogen combustion will likely occur. Therefore, the hydrogen concentration must be kept below 4%. This study presents the prediction of hydrogen concentration using cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN). The CFNN model repeatedly applies FNN modules that are serially connected. The CFNN model was developed using data on severe accidents in NPPs. The data were obtained by numerically simulating the accident scenarios using the MAAP4 code for optimized power reactor 1000 (OPR1000) because real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents. The root-mean-square error level predicted by the CFNN model is below approximately 5%. It was confirmed that the CFNN model could accurately predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment. If NPP operators can predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment using the CFNN model, this prediction can assist them in preventing a hydrogen explosion.

  14. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.

    2013-01-01

    the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link......In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...

  15. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  16. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  17. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Modeling atmospheric dispersion for reactor accident consequence evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Woodard, K.

    1982-01-01

    Atmospheric dispersion models are a central part of computer codes for the evaluation of potential reactor accident consequences. A variety of ways of treating to varying degrees the many physical processes that can have an impact on the predicted consequences exists. The currently available models are reviewed and their capabilities and limitations, as applied to reactor accident consequence analyses, are discussed

  19. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

  20. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  1. Prediction of Transient Scenarios Using AI After Severe Accident Occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

    2017-01-01

    We predicted the core uncovery time, the time that core exist temperature (CET) exceeds 1200 .deg. F, reactor vessel (RV) failure time and containment failure time by using the cascaded support vector regression (SVR) model. The proposed algorithms were trained and verified using the simulation data of MAAP code for the optimized power rector (OPR1000). In this study, we predicted transient scenarios by CSVR. The MAAP code was used to describe the accident situation and the 13 measured signal data was acquired and used. The CSVR model was developed to find out the transient scenarios by using short timeintegrated signals after reactor trip. The results show that the CSVR models can predict the transient scenarios accurately.

  2. A note on modeling road accident frequency: a flexible elasticity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, António; Ferreira, Sara

    2011-11-01

    Count data models and their variants have been widely applied in accident modeling. The traditional log-linear function is used to represent the relationship between explanatory variables and the dependent variable (accident frequency). However, this function assumes constant elasticity for the estimation parameters, which is a limitation in the analysis of the effects of explanatory variables on accident risk. Although interaction effects between explanatory variables have been studied in the road safety context (where they are normally assessed by logistic regression), no one has yet examined the possibility of using a flexible function form allowing non-constant elasticity values. This paper seeks to explore the use of the translog function usually used in the economics context to allow the elasticity to vary with the values of other explanatory variables. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the application of the translog function to accident modeling and to compare the results with those of the traditional log-linear function negative binomial (NB) model. The results show that, in terms of goodness-of-fit statistics and residual analysis, the NB model with the translog function performs better than the traditional NB model. Additional evaluations in terms of predictive performance, hotspot identification and uncertainty associated with the estimated values were taken into account. Although this study is exploratory in nature, it suggests that the translog function has considerable potential for modeling accident observations. It is hoped that this novel accident modeling methodology will open the door to the reliable interpretation and evaluation of the influence of explanatory variables on accident frequency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Erbang; Gao Zhanrong; Zhang Heyuan; Wei Weiqiang

    1996-12-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident has been developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chain but also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused by accident release which will make an impact on radionuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dry and wet deposition interception and initial retention, translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activity intake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intake of human through ingestion pathway are also considered in calculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable are considered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating the contribution of rain with different period and different intensity to total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 main code and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surface of vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable, nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and in animal products and activity intake of human and so on. (24 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs.)

  4. A drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riewpaiboon A

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at a regional hospital in Thailand. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004. Results: Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36. The fitted drug cost model had an adjusted R2 of 0.449. The positive significant predictor variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over 30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of accident during 18:00-24:00 o’clock, and motorcycle comparing to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on the forecasted values of statistically significant (p<0.05 predictor variables included in the fitted model; predicted total drug cost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost, predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43% higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach.Conclusions: The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The application of a predicted average cost model could result in a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic approach.

  5. Fission-gas bubble modeling for LMFBR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostensen, R.W.

    1977-01-01

    The behavior of fission-gas bubbles in unrestructured oxide fuel can have a dominant effect on the course of a core disruptive accident in an LMFBR. The paper describes a simplified model of bubble behavior and presents results of that model in analyzing the relevant physical assumptions and predicting gas behavior in molten fuel

  6. Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellamy, Linda J.; Damen, Martin; Jan Manuel, Henk; Aneziris, Olga N.; Papazoglou, Ioannis A.; Oh, Joy I.H.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population. - Highlights: • Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given. • Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004. • Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors. • Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents. • Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks

  7. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

  8. Predicted occurrence rate of severe transportation accidents involving large casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, A.W.

    1978-01-01

    A summary of the results of an investigation of the severities of highway and railroad accidents as they relate to the shipment of large radioactive materials casks is discussed. The accident environments considered are fire, impact, crash, immersion, and puncture. For each of these environments, the accident severities and their predicted frequencies of occurrence are presented. These accident environments are presented in tabular and graphic form to allow the reader to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the accident parameter severities he selects

  9. Updating long-range transport model predictions using real-time monitoring data in case of nuclear accidents with release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, Frank; Tassone, Caterina; Grippa, Gianni; Zarimpas, Nicolas; Graziani, Giovanni

    1991-01-01

    A procedure is developed to reduce the uncertainties of long-range transport model predictions, in case of a large scale nuclear accident. It is based on the availability in 'real time' of the concentrations of airborne radioactive aerosols from automatic on-line monitors, which are presently being installed throughout Europe. Essentially, the procedure consists of: (1) constructing new (area) source terms from the measured field data as they become available; and (2) restart the prediction with these sources, rather than with the original (point) source. The procedure is applied to the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that the procedure is feasible and might result in an improvement of the prediction of the location of the cloud by several hundreds of kilometers and the actual levels with an order of magnitude. The weak point is the treatment of the vertical structure and transport of the cloud, which can only be solved when 'real-time' upper air observations are also available. (author)

  10. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  11. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  12. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  13. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  14. The prediction of the LWR plant accident based on the measured plant data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, J.; Schmuck, P.

    2005-01-01

    In case of accident affecting a nuclear reactor, it is essential to anticipate the possible development of the situation to efficiently succeed in emergency response actions, i.e. firstly to be early warned, to get sufficient information on the plant: and as far as possible. The ASTRID (Assessment of Source Term for Emergency Response based on Installation Data) project consists in developing a methodology: of expertise to; structure the work of technical teams and to facilitate cross competence communications among EP players and a qualified computer tool that could be commonly used by the European countries to reliably predict source term in case of an accident in a light water reactor, using the information available on the plant. In many accident conditions the team of analysts may be located far away from the plant experiencing the accident and their decision making is based on the on-line plant data transmitted into the crisis centre in an interval of 30 - 600 seconds. The plant condition has to be diagnosed based on this information, In the ASTRID project the plant status diagnostics has been studied for the European reactor types including BWR, PWR and VVER plants. The directly measured plant data may be used for estimations of the break size from the primary system and its locations. The break size prediction may be based on the pressurizer level, reactor vessel level, primary pressure and steam generator level in the case of the steam generator tube rupture. In the ASTRID project the break predictions concept was developed and its validity for different plant types and is presented in the paper, when the plant data has been created with the plant specific thermohydraulic simulation model. The tracking simulator attempts to follow the plant behavior on-line based on the measured plant data for the main process parameters and most important boundary conditions. When the plant state tracking fails, the plant may be experiencing an accident, and the tracking

  15. Synthesis of the models used in France for the evaluation of the consequences of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crabol, B.

    1992-01-01

    In order to evaluate the consequences of an atmospheric release in case of an accident on a nuclear installation, different predictive models have been developed by the organizations involved in the management of the crisis. These models are of different numerical complexity: precalculated graphs, gaussian puff models or 3D models. The harmonization of these models, the definition of their use, notably in the first phases of the accident (predictive and real-time phases) have been discussed in a working group including representants of the utility, the safety authorities and the Meteorological Office. The reflexions of the group, the models already operational, those still under discussion and their use in the different technical crisis centers are presented

  16. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Dong Hyuk [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  17. Monitoring severe accidents using AI techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Lim, Dong Hyuk

    2012-01-01

    After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

  18. Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmen Carnero, Maria; Jose Pedregal, Diego

    2010-01-01

    The control of accidents at the work place is a critical issue all over the world. The consequences of occupational accidents in terms of costs for the company in which the accidents take place is only one minor matter, being the social impact and the loss of human life the most controversial effects of this important problem. The methods used to forecast future evolution of accidents are often limited to trend estimations and projections, being the scientific literature on this topic rather scarce. This paper aims at showing and predicting the evolution of Spanish occupational accidents of different levels of severity, allowing the evaluation of the influence that preventive actions carried out by public administrations or private companies may have over the number of occupational accidents. Though some contributions may be found on this topic for Spain, this paper is the first contribution that forecast occupational accidents for different levels of severity using Multivariate Unobserved Components models developed in a State Space framework extended to deal with the irregular sampling interval of the data. Data from 1998 to 2009 have been used to test the efficacy of the forecasting system.

  19. A measurement-based method for predicting margins and uncertainties for unprotected accidents in the Integral Fast Reactor concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilim, R.B.

    1990-01-01

    A measurement-based method for predicting the response of an LMR core to unprotected accidents has been developed. The method processes plant measurements taken at normal operation to generate a stochastic model for the core dynamics. This model can be used to predict three sigma confidence intervals for the core temperature and power response. Preliminary numerical simulations performed for EBR-2 appear promising. 6 refs., 2 figs

  20. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  1. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  2. Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

    2014-09-15

    Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Prediction of thermal hydraulic parameters in the loss of coolant accident by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaziri, N.; Erfani, A.; Monsefi, M.; Hajabri, A.

    2008-01-01

    In a reactor accident like loss of coolant accident , one or more signals may not be monitored by control panel for some reasons such as interruptions and so on. Therefore a fast alternative method could guarantee the safe and reliable exploration of nuclear power planets. In this study, we used artificial neural network with Elman recurrent structure to predict six thermal hydraulic signals in a loss of coolant accident after upper plenum break. In the prediction procedure, a few previous samples are fed to the artificial neural network and the output value or next time step is estimated by the network output. The Elman recurrent network is trained with the data obtained from the benchmark simulation of loss of coolant accident in VVER. The results reveal that the predicted values follow the real trends well and artificial neural network can be used as a fast alternative prediction tool in loss of coolant accident

  4. Learning from nuclear accident experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models, and results are compared to earlier graphical and analytical estimates. The models are based on (1) the cumulative number of operating years, (2) the cumulative number of plants built, and (3) accidents (explicitly), with the accident rate distinctly different before and after an accident. The statistical accuracies of the parameters estimated are obtained in analytical form using the Fisher information matrix. Using data on core damage accidents in electricity producing plants, it is estimated that the probability for a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the equivalent frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year, partly due to the increasing population of plants. 10 references, 7 figures, 2 tables

  5. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  6. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs

  7. Correspondence model of occupational accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan C. Conte

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents, we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19×19. Through correspondence analysis, we obtained a structure composed of three axes whose combination identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we used as a general Spanish pattern. The most likely or frequent relationships between the risk and injuries identified in the pattern facilitated the decision-making process in companies at an early stage of risk assessment. Each risk-injury group has its own characteristics, which are understandable within the phenomenological framework of the accident. The main advantages of this model are its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting different country results. One limiting factor, however, is the need to set a common classification framework for risks and injuries to enhance comparison, a framework that does not exist today. The model aims to manage work-related accidents automatically at any level.Apresentamos aqui um modelo generalizado para o diagnóstico e predição de acidentes na classe de trabalhadores da Espanha. Baseados em dados sobre a frequência de acidentes em todas as companhias da Espanha em 11 anos (7.519.732 acidentes, nós os classificamos em uma nova tabela de contingência risco-injúria (19×19. Através de uma análise por correspondência obtivemos uma estrutura composta por 3 eixos cuja combinação identifica 3 grupos separados de risco e injúria, que nós usamos como um perfil geral na Espanha. As mais prováveis ou frequentes relações entre risco e injúrias identificadas nesse perfil facilitaram o processo de decisão nas companhias em um estágio inicial de apreciação do risco. Cada grupo de risco-injúria tem suas próprias caracter

  8. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  9. Development and qualification of a thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling station blackout accident in PSB-VVER test facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saghafi, Mahdi [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher, E-mail: ghofrani@sharif.edu [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); D’Auria, Francesco [San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), University of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, San Piero a Grado, Pisa (Italy)

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A thermal-hydraulic nodalization for PSB-VVER test facility has been developed. • Station blackout accident is modeled with the developed nodalization in MELCOR code. • The developed nodalization is qualified at both steady state and transient levels. • MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in acceptable range. • Fast Fourier Transform Base Method is used to quantify accuracy of code predictions. - Abstract: This paper deals with the development of a qualified thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling Station Black-Out (SBO) accident in PSB-VVER Integral Test Facility (ITF). This study has been performed in the framework of a research project, aiming to develop an appropriate accident management support tool for Bushehr nuclear power plant. In this regard, a nodalization has been developed for thermal-hydraulic modeling of the PSB-VVER ITF by MELCOR integrated code. The nodalization is qualitatively and quantitatively qualified at both steady-state and transient levels. The accuracy of the MELCOR predictions is quantified in the transient level using the Fast Fourier Transform Base Method (FFTBM). FFTBM provides an integral representation for quantification of the code accuracy in the frequency domain. It was observed that MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in the acceptable range. In addition, the influence of different nodalizations on MELCOR predictions was evaluated and quantified using FFTBM by developing 8 sensitivity cases with different numbers of control volumes and heat structures in the core region and steam generator U-tubes. The most appropriate case, which provided results with minimum deviations from the experimental data, was then considered as the qualified nodalization for analysis of SBO accident in the PSB-VVER ITF. This qualified nodalization can be used for modeling of VVER-1000 nuclear power plants when performing SBO accident analysis by MELCOR code.

  10. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

  11. MELCOR analysis of the TMI-2 accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucheron, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic predictions of severe accident phenomena and the radiological source team. The analysis of the TMI-2 standard problem allowed for comparison of the model predictions in MELCOR to plant data and to the results of more mechanistic analyses. This exercise was, therefore valuable for verifying and assessing the models in the code. The major trends in the TMI-2 accident are reasonably well predicted with MELCOR, even with its simplified modeling. Comparison of the calculated and measured results is presented and, based on this comparison, conclusions can be drawn concerning the applicability of MELCOR to severe accident analysis. 5 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

  12. A Comparative Analysis and Prediction of Traffic Accident Causalities in the Sultanate of Oman using Artificial Neural Networks and Statistical methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galal A. Ali

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents are among the major causes of death in the Sultanate of Oman This is particularly the case in the age group of I6 to 25. Studies indicate that, in spite of Oman's high population-per-vehicle ratio, its fatality rate per l0,000 vehicles is one of the highest in the world. This alarming Situation underlines the importance of analyzing traffic accident data and predicting accident casualties. Such steps will lead to understanding the underlying causes of traffic accidents, and thereby to devise appropriate measures to reduce the number of car accidents and enhance safety standards. In this paper, a comparative study of car accident casualties in Oman was undertaken. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs were used to analyze the data and make predictions of the number of accident casualties. The results were compared with those obtained from the analysis and predictions by regression techniques. Both approaches attempted to model accident casualties using historical  data on related factors, such as population, number of cars on the road and so on, covering the period from I976 to 1994. Forecasts for the years 1995 to 2000 were made using ANNs and regression equations. The results from ANNs provided the best fit for the data. However, it was found that ANNs gave lower forecasts relative to those obtained by the regression methods used, indicating that ANNs are suitable for interpolation but their use for extrapolation may be limited. Nevertheless, the study showed that ANNs provide a potentially powerful tool in analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents and casualties.

  13. Comparative modeling analyses of Cs-137 fate in the rivers impacted by Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S. [Institute of Environmental Radioactivity, Fukushima University (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The consequences of two largest nuclear accidents of the last decades - at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) (1986) and at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (FDNPP) (2011) clearly demonstrated that radioactive contamination of water bodies in vicinity of NPP and on the waterways from it, e.g., river- reservoir water after Chernobyl accident and rivers and coastal marine waters after Fukushima accident, in the both cases have been one of the main sources of the public concerns on the accident consequences. The higher weight of water contamination in public perception of the accidents consequences in comparison with the real fraction of doses via aquatic pathways in comparison with other dose components is a specificity of public perception of environmental contamination. This psychological phenomenon that was confirmed after these accidents provides supplementary arguments that the reliable simulation and prediction of the radionuclide dynamics in water and sediments is important part of the post-accidental radioecological research. The purpose of the research is to use the experience of the modeling activities f conducted for the past more than 25 years within the Chernobyl affected Pripyat River and Dnieper River watershed as also data of the new monitoring studies in Japan of Abukuma River (largest in the region - the watershed area is 5400 km{sup 2}), Kuchibuto River, Uta River, Niita River, Natsui River, Same River, as also of the studies on the specific of the 'water-sediment' {sup 137}Cs exchanges in this area to refine the 1-D model RIVTOX and 2-D model COASTOX for the increasing of the predictive power of the modeling technologies. The results of the modeling studies are applied for more accurate prediction of water/sediment radionuclide contamination of rivers and reservoirs in the Fukushima Prefecture and for the comparative analyses of the efficiency of the of the post -accidental measures to diminish the contamination of the water bodies. Document

  14. Development of CHF models for inner and outer RPV gaps in a meltdown severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.; Tian, W.X.; Feng, K.; Yu, H.X.; Zhang, Y.P.; Su, G.H.; Qiu, S.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. • The computed result was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. • An analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. • The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. • Two CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF predict the CHF well. - Abstract: During a severe accident, the core melt relocates in the lower head and a hemispherical narrow gap may appear between the crust and the lower head because of the different material expansion ratio. The existence of this gap is very important to the integrity of the lower head. Based on the counter current flow limitation (CCFL) between the vapor phase and the liquid phase, a CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. The CHF model developed was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. The effect of key parameters, including the system pressure, radius of melt, and gap size, on the CHF were investigated. And the TMI-2 accident was also calculated by using the CHF formula. Moreover, based on the interface separation model, an analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. It indicated that the CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF could predict the CHF well

  15. A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

  16. Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

  17. Structural evaluation of electrosleeved tubes under severe accident transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1999-01-01

    A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth model and the Hall-Petch relationship were used to calculate the loss of flow stress as a function of time and temperature during the accident. Available tensile test data as well as high temperature failure tests on notched Electrosleeved tube specimens were used to derive the basic parameters of the failure model. The model was used to predict the failure temperatures of Electrosleeved tubes with axial cracks in the parent tube during postulated severe accident transients

  18. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  19. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

  1. Study on integrated approach of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling System based on GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Lijuan; Huang Shunxiang; Wang Xinming

    2012-01-01

    The issue of nuclear safety becomes the attention focus of international society after the nuclear accident happened in Fukushima. Aiming at the requirements of the prevention and controlling of Nuclear Accident establishment of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning and optimized Controlling System (NAPWS) is a imperative project that our country and army are desiderating, which includes multiple fields of subject as nuclear physics, atmospheric science, security science, computer science and geographical information technology, etc. Multiplatform, multi-system and multi-mode are integrated effectively based on GIS, accordingly the Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling technology System of Nuclear Accident Hazard is established. (authors)

  2. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

  3. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Yunfei; Tong, Jiejuan; Zhang, Liguo, E-mail: lgzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Qin

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM.

  4. Comparison of US/FRG accident condition models for HTGR fuel failure and radionuclide release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.

    1991-03-01

    The objective was to compare calculation models used in safety analyses in the US and FRG which describe fission product release behavior from TRISO coated fuel particles under core heatup accident conditions. The frist step performed is the qualitative comparison of both sides' fuel failure and release models in order to identify differences and similarities in modeling assumptions and inputs. Assumptions of possible particle failure mechanisms under accident conditions (SiC degradation, pressure vessel) are principally the same on both sides though they are used in different modeling approaches. The characterization of a standard (= intact) coated particle to be of non-releasing (GA) or possibly releasing (KFA/ISF) type is one of the major qualitative differences. Similar models are used regarding radionuclide release from exposed particle kernels. In a second step, a quantitative comparison of the calculation models was made by assessing a benchmark problem predicting particle failure and radionuclide release under MHTGR conduction cooldown accident conditions. Calculations with each side's reference method have come to almost the same failure fractions after 250 hours for the core region with maximum core heatup temperature despite the different modeling approaches of SORS and PANAMA-I. The comparison of the results of particle failure obtained with the Integrated Failure and Release Model for Standard Particles and its revision provides a 'verification' of these models in this sense that the codes (SORS and PANAMA-II, and -III, respectively) which were independently developed lead to very good agreement in the predictions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hales, Jason Dean [Idaho National Laboratory; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence [Idaho National Laboratory

    2016-05-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether either of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the Advanced

  6. A simplified model for calculating atmospheric radionuclide transport and early health effects from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1995-01-01

    During certain hypothetical severe accidents in a nuclear power plant, radionuclides could be released to the environment as a plume. Prediction of the atmospheric dispersion and transport of these radionuclides is important for assessment of the risk to the public from such accidents. A simplified PC-based model was developed that predicts time-integrated air concentration of each radionuclide at any location from release as a function of time integrated source strength using the Gaussian plume model. The solution procedure involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position, using simplified meteorology. The formulation allows for dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and daughter buildup, reactor building wake effects, the inversion lid effect, plume rise due to buoyancy or momentum, release duration, and grass height. Based on air and ground concentrations of the radionuclides, the early dose to an individual is calculated via cloudshine, groundshine, and inhalation. The model also calculates early health effects based on the doses. This paper presents aspects of the model that would be of interest to the prediction of environmental flows and their public consequences

  7. BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.; Woolstenhulme, Nicolas E.; Ban, Heng; Wachs, Daniel M.

    2016-09-01

    In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure of the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.

  8. Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

    2012-03-09

    Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

  9. A Novel Exercise Thermophysiology Comfort Prediction Model with Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Jia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Participation in a regular exercise program can improve health status and contribute to an increase in life expectancy. However, exercise accidents like dehydration, exertional heatstroke, syncope, and even sudden death exist. If these accidents can be analyzed or predicted before they happen, it will be beneficial to alleviate or avoid uncomfortable or unacceptable human disease. Therefore, an exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction model is needed. In this paper, coupling the thermal interactions among human body, clothing, and environment (HCE as well as the human body physiological properties, a human thermophysiology regulatory model is designed to enhance the human thermophysiology simulation in the HCE system. Some important thermal and physiological performances can be simulated. According to the simulation results, a human exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction method based on fuzzy inference system is proposed. The experiment results show that there is the same prediction trend between the experiment result and simulation result about thermophysiology comfort. At last, a mobile application platform for human exercise comfort prediction is designed and implemented.

  10. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang Xinxin [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

    2014-08-15

    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented.

  11. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented...

  12. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nucler Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented....

  13. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook; Yoon, Ho Joon

    2016-01-01

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results

  14. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2016-05-15

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results.

  15. Models and methods for predicting the release of fission products during hypothetical accidents in HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailly, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    The paper deals with experiments, computational models and methods used to describe the fission product transport (diffusion and particle failure) in the fuel elements of a pebble-bed high-temperature module reactor (HTGR Module) during hypothetical accidents. The codes which describe the diffusion of fission products in the fuel elements are e.g. GETTER and FRESCO. PANAMA, IA/KWU failure function and the so called GOODIN models describe the particle failure. All these models may be used in the risk analysis. The experimental results obtained at the Nuclear Research Center Julich, Germany are discussed and compared with the model calculations for these experiments

  16. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

  17. The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Fontanet, J.; López, C.; Fernández, E.

    2015-07-01

    The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)

  18. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established {sup S}afety Culture{sup ,} the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  19. The observed and predicted health effects of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Due to poor design, operator error and the absence of an established S afety Culture , the worst accident in the history of nuclear power involving the Unit 4 RMBK reactor occurred at Chernobyl in the Ukraine in the early morning of 26 April 1986. This accident led to the contamination of large tracts of forest and agricultural land (in the former Soviet Union) and the evacuation of a large number of people. Thirty-one people died at the time of the accident or shortly afterwards, and 203 people were treated for the Acute Radiation Syndrome. From about 1990 a significant increase in the number of childhood thyroid cancers has been noted in Belarus and Ukraine. Because of the social, political and economic situation in the Soviet Union soon after the accident, the anxiety and stress induced in the general population has been enhanced to the point where it may well be the single most important indirect health effect of the accident. Contamination outside the former Soviet Union was largely confined to Europe, where it was extremely patchy and variable. Contamination in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was insignificant. The health effects in the General Population in the Contaminated Regions in the former USSR and Europe, are predicted to be low and not discernible. However, there may be subgroups within, for example, the Liquidators, which if they can be identified and followed, may show adverse health effects. Health effects in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere will be inconsequential. (author) 38 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  20. The causing model of accidents and preventing system of small mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, S.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y. [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2008-06-15

    From an analysis of data on fatal accidents in small coal mines in a southern region of China over a period of three years, the time and type of accidents was discussed by applying statistical methods. It is shown that accidents frequently occur at the end of spring and all through summer. Roof accidents and gas disasters constitute severe accidents and traffic accidents are also important. It was found that most accidents are caused by dangerous behaviour of personnel and the unsafe state of equipment combined with economic interest. The three-factor causing model (TFC model) was proposed. Unsafe behaviour is a direct cause influenced by staff and workers while the unsafe nature of equipment is an indirect cause of accidents influence by natural conditions and the level of technical equipment in the mines. A system of accident prevention in small coal collieries was established with the TFC model. In this, scientific management is an important factor. 13 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-31

    This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

  2. Development of two-dimensional hot pool model and analysis of the ULOHS accident in KALIMER design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Jeong, K. S.; Hahn, H. D

    2000-10-01

    In the new version of HP2D program, the variation model of the hot pool sodium level is added so that the temperature and velocity profiles can be predicted more accurately than old version. To verify and validate the developed new version model, comparison of the MONJU experimental data with the predicted one is performed and analyzed. And also the ULOHS(Unprotected Loss of Heat Sink) accident in the KALIMER design is performed and analyzed.

  3. Development of two-dimensional hot pool model and analysis of the ULOHS accident in KALIMER design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Jeong, K. S.; Hahn, H. D.

    2000-10-01

    In the new version of HP2D program, the variation model of the hot pool sodium level is added so that the temperature and velocity profiles can be predicted more accurately than old version. To verify and validate the developed new version model, comparison of the MONJU experimental data with the predicted one is performed and analyzed. And also the ULOHS(Unprotected Loss of Heat Sink) accident in the KALIMER design is performed and analyzed

  4. Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

  5. Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

    2017-09-01

    Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

  6. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heams, T.J.; Williams, D.A.; Johns, N.A.; Mason, A.; Bixler, N.E.; Grimley, A.J.; Wheatley, C.J.; Dickson, L.W.; Osborn-Lee, I.; Domagala, P.; Zawadzki, S.; Rest, J.; Alexander, C.A.; Lee, R.Y.

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided

  7. Modeling and analyses of postulated UF6 release accidents in gaseous diffusion plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Keith, K.D.; Schmidt, R.W.; Carter, J.C.; Dyer, R.H.

    1995-10-01

    Computer models have been developed to simulate the transient behavior of aerosols and vapors as a result of a postulated accident involving the release of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) into the process building of a gaseous diffusion plant. UF 6 undergoes an exothermic chemical reaction with moisture (H 2 O) in the air to form hydrogen fluoride (HF) and radioactive uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ). As part of a facility-wide safety evaluation, this study evaluated source terms consisting of UO 2 F 2 as well as HF during a postulated UF 6 release accident in a process building. In the postulated accident scenario, ∼7900 kg (17,500 lb) of hot UF 6 vapor is released over a 5 min period from the process piping into the atmosphere of a large process building. UO 2 F 2 mainly remains as airborne-solid particles (aerosols), and HF is in a vapor form. Some UO 2 F 2 aerosols are removed from the air flow due to gravitational settling. The HF and the remaining UO 2 F 2 are mixed with air and exhausted through the building ventilation system. The MELCOR computer code was selected for simulating aerosols and vapor transport in the process building. MELCOR model was first used to develop a single volume representation of a process building and its results were compared with those from past lumped parameter models specifically developed for studying UF 6 release accidents. Preliminary results indicate that MELCOR predicted results (using a lumped formulation) are comparable with those from previously developed models

  8. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  9. Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

    1984-06-01

    This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

  10. Thermal-hydraulic and aerosol containment phenomena modelling in ASTEC severe accident computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kljenak, Ivo; Dapper, Maik; Dienstbier, Jiri; Herranz, Luis E.; Koch, Marco K.; Fontanet, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Transients in containment systems of different scales (Phebus.FP containment, KAEVER vessel, Battelle Model Containment, LACE vessel and VVER-1000 nuclear power plant containment) involving thermal-hydraulic phenomena and aerosol behaviour, were simulated with the computer integral code ASTEC. The results of the simulations in the first four facilities were compared with experimental results, whereas the results of the simulated accident in the VVER-1000 containment were compared to results obtained with the MELCOR code. The main purpose of the simulations was the validation of the CPA module of the ASTEC code. The calculated results support the applicability of the code for predicting in-containment thermal-hydraulic and aerosol phenomena during a severe accident in a nuclear power plant.

  11. Health effect predictions from the Chernobyl accident for the Bulgarian population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, G.

    1992-01-01

    Contamination of Bulgaria's territory from atmospheric transfer of radioactive products released by the disrupted Chernobylsk reactor is discussed. The mean effective doses derived are given. To predict health implications for the population use was made of the risk coefficients and approaches proposed in ICRP Publication 60 (1990). As regards stochastic effects, estimations indicated: 1) cancer with fatal outcome: a total of 363 cases occurring over 50 to 70 years (the lifetime of a generation); 2) nonfatal (curable) cancer: a total of 107 cases; 3) serious heritable effects: a total of 80 cases. Calculations of radiation doses involved two major assumptions: at the time of the accident people were continuously staying at their permanent place of residence; they were mostly consuming food of local origin. The predicted health consequences are of a probabilistic nature and serve to make comparative evaluations with other sources of radiation exposure, and as guides for epidemiologic studies. It is such studies that will enable to evaluate the harm actually incurred at the time of Chernobyl accident. (author)

  12. Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

  13. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

  14. Modeling of corium dispersion in DCH accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Q.

    1996-01-01

    A model that governs the dispersion process in the direct containment heating (DCH) reactor accident scenario is developed by a stepwise approach. In this model, the whole transient is subdivided into four phases with an isothermal assumption. These are the liquid and gas discharge, the liquid film flow in the cavity before gas blowdown, the liquid and gas flow in the cavity with droplet entrainment, and the liquid transport and re-entrainment in the subcompartment. In each step, the dominant driving mechanisms are identified to construct the governing equations. By combining all the steps together, the corium dispersion information is obtained in detail. The key parameters are predicted quantitatively. These include the fraction of liquid that flows out of the cavity before gas blowdown, the dispersion fraction and the mean droplet diameter in the cavity, the cavity pressure rise due to the liquid friction force, and the dispersion fractions in the containment via different paths. Compared with the data of the 1:10 scale experiments carried out at Purdue University, fairly good agreement is obtained. A stand-alone prediction of the corium dispersion under prototypic Zion reactor conditions is carried out by assuming an isothermal process without chemical reactions. (orig.)

  15. The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caird, J K; Kline, T J

    2004-12-01

    Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

  16. Babcock and Wilcox revisions to CONTEMPT, computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsii, Y.H.

    1975-01-01

    The CONTEMPT computer program predicts the pressure-temperature response of a single-volume reactor building to a loss-of-coolant accident. The analytical model used for the program is described. CONTEMPT assumes that the loss-of-coolant accident can be separated into two phases; the primary system blowdown and reactor building pressurization. The results of the blowdown analysis serve as the boundary conditions and are input to the CONTEMPT program. Thus, the containment model is only concerned with the pressure and temperature in the reactor building and the temperature distribution through the reactor building structures. The program also calculates building leakage and the effects of engineered safety features such as reactor building sprays, decay heat coolers, sump coolers, etc. 11 references. (U.S.)

  17. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  18. Comparison of SAS3A and MELT-III predictions for a transient overpower hypothetical accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilburn, N.P.

    1976-01-01

    A comparison is made of the predictions of the two major codes SAS3A and MELT-III for the hypothetical unprotected transient overpower accident in the FFTF. The predictions of temperatures, fuel restructuring, fuel melting, reactivity feedbacks, and core power are compared

  19. Predicted HIFAR fuel element temperatures for postulated loss-of-coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, W.J.

    1987-04-01

    A two-dimensional theoretical heat transfer model of a HIFAR Mark IV/Va fuel element has been developed and validated by comparing predicted thermal performances with experimental temperature responses obtained from irradiated fuel elements during simulated accident conditions. Full details of the model's development and its verification have been reported elsewhere. In this report, the model has been further used to ascertain acceptable limits of fuel element decay power for the start of two specific LOCAs which have been identified by the Regulatory Bureau of the AAEC. For a single fuel element which is positioned within a fuel load/unload flask and is not subjected to any forced convective air cooling, the model indicates that fission product decay powers must not exceed 1.86 kW if fuel surface temperatures are not to exceed 450 deg C. In the case of a HIFAR core LOCA in which the complete inventory of heavy water is lost, it is calculated that the maximum fission product decay power of a central element must not exceed 1.1 kW if fuel surface temperatures are not to exceed 450 deg C anywhere in the core

  20. Having a New Pair of Glassess : Applying Systemic Accident Models on Road Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Yu-Hsing

    2007-01-01

    The main purpose of the thesis is to discuss the accident models which underlie accident prevention in general and road safety in particular, and the consequences of relying on a particular model have for actual preventive work. The discussion centres on two main topics. The first topic is whether the underlying accident model, or paradigm, of traditional road safety should be exchanged for a more complex accident model, and if so, which model(s) are appropriate. From a discussion of current ...

  1. Real Time Radioactivity Monitoring and its Interface with predictive atmospheric transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, F.

    1990-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident, a programme was initiated at the Joint Research Centre of the Commission of the European Communities named 'Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring' (REM). The main aspects considered in REM are: data handling, atmospheric modelling and data quality control related to radioactivity in the environment. The first REM workshop was held in December 1987: 'Aerosol Measurements and Nuclear Accidents: A Reconsideration'. (CEC EUR 11755 EN). These are the proceedings of the second REM workshop, held in December 1989, dealing with real-time radioactivity monitoring and its interface with predictive atmospheric models. Atmospheric transport models, in applications extending over time scales of the order of a day or more become progressively less reliable to the extent that an interface with real-time radiological field data becomes highly desirable. Through international arrangements for early exchange of information in the event of a nuclear accident (European Community, IAEA) such data might become available on a quasi real-time basis. The question is how best to use such information to improve our predictive capabilities. During the workshop the present status of on-line monitoring networks for airborne radioactivity in the EC Member States has been reviewed. Possibilities were discussed to use data from such networks as soon as they become available, in order to update predictions made with long range transport models. This publication gives the full text of 13 presentations and a report of the Round Table Discussion held afterwards

  2. Estimating the continuous risk of accidents occuring in the mining industry in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Honert, Andrew Francis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study contributes to the on-going efforts to improve occupational safety in the mining industry by creating a model capable of predicting the continuous risk of occupational accidents occurring. Contributing factors were identified and their sensitivity quantified. The approach included using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to identify patterns between the input attributes and to predict the continuous risk of accidents occurring. The predictive Artificial Neural Network (ANN model used in this research was created, trained, and validated in the form of a case study with data from a platinum mine near Rustenburg in South Africa. This resulted in meaningful correlation between the predicted continuous risk and actual accidents.

  3. Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

    2014-01-01

    In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

  4. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  5. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Qureshi, Zahid H

    2008-01-01

    .... This report provides a review of key traditional accident modelling approaches and their limitations, and describes new system-theoretic approaches to the modelling and analysis of accidents in safety-critical systems...

  6. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Xin; Li Ke-Ping; Luo Zi-Yan; Zhou Jin

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  7. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  8. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heams, T J [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, D A; Johns, N A; Mason, A [UKAEA, Winfrith, (England); Bixler, N E; Grimley, A J [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheatley, C J [UKAEA, Culcheth (England); Dickson, L W [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON (Canada); Osborn-Lee, I [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Domagala, P; Zawadzki, S; Rest, J [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Alexander, C A [Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States); Lee, R Y [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided.

  9. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models

  10. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  11. Predictability of iodine chemistry in the containment of a nuclear power plant under hypothetical severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Vela-Garcia, M.; Fontanet, J. [Unit of Nuclear Safety Research, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-01

    One of the areas of top interest in the arena of severe accidents to get an accurate prediction of Source Term is Iodine Chemistry. In this paper an assessment of the current capability of MELCOR and ASTEC to predict iodine chemistry within containment in case of a postulated severe accident has been carried out. The experiments FPT1 and FPT2 of the PHEBUS-FP project have been used for comparisons, since they were carried out under rather different containment conditions during the chemistry phase (subcooled vs. saturated sump or acid vs. alkaline pH), which makes them very suitable to assess the current modeling capability of in-containment iodine chemistry models. The results obtained indicate that, even though, both integral codes have specific areas related to iodine chemistry that should be further developed and that their approach to the matter is drastically different, at present ASTEC-IODE allows for a more comprehensive simulation of the containment iodine chemistry. More importantly, lack of maturity of these codes would potentially maximize the so-called user-effect, so that it would be highly recommendable to perform sensitivity studies around iodine chemistry aspects when calculating Source Term scenarios. Key aspects needed of further research are: gaseous iodine chemistry (absent in MELCOR), organic iodine chemistry and adsorption/desorption on/from containment surfaces. (authors)

  12. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmon, P.; Gonze, M.-A.; Mourlon, Ch.

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed. - Highlights: • Transfer of radiocesium atmospheric fallout in evergreen forests was modeled. • The model was tested using observations from Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. • Model predictions of canopy interception and depuration agree with measurements. • Unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall for the

  13. A parametric study of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2) Input Values for the Predicted Health Effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, So Ra; Min, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

    2016-01-01

    The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2, MACCS2, has been the most widely used through the world among the off-site consequence analysis codes. MACCS2 code is used to estimate the radionuclide concentrations, radiological doses, health effects, and economic consequences that could result from the hypothetical nuclear accidents. Most of the MACCS model parameter values are defined by the user and those input parameters can make a significant impact on the output. A limited parametric study was performed to identify the relative importance of the values of each input parameters in determining the predicted early and latent health effects in MACCS2. These results would not be applicable to every case of the nuclear accidents, because only the limited calculation was performed with Kori-specific data. The endpoints of the assessment were early- and latent cancer-risk in the exposed population, therefore it might produce the different results with the parametric studies for other endpoints, such as contamination level, absorbed dose, and economic cost. Accident consequence assessment is important for decision making to minimize the health effect from radiation exposure, accordingly the sufficient parametric studies are required for the various endpoints and input parameters in further research

  14. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the third in a series of five papers describing the IDAC (Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context) model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper discusses the modeling components and their process rules. An operator's problem-solving process is divided into three types: information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision-making (D), and action execution (A). Explicit and context-dependent behavior rules for each type of operator are developed in the form of tables, and logical or mathematical relations. These regulate the process and activities of each of the three types of response. The behavior rules are developed for three generic types of operator: Decision Maker, Action Taker, and Consultant. This paper also provides a simple approach to calculating normalized probabilities of alternative behaviors given a context

  15. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors.

  16. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E.

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors

  17. Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taamneh, Madhar; Taamneh, Salah; Alkheder, Sharaf

    2017-09-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%-16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%-5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.

  18. Modelling of RPV lower head under core melt severe accident condition using OpenFOAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madokoro, Hiroshi; Kretzschmar, Frank; Miassoedov, Alexei

    2017-01-01

    Although six years have been passed since the tragic severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi, still large uncertainties exist in modeling of core degradation and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure. It is extremely important to obtain a better understanding of complex phenomena in the lower head in order to improve accident management measures. The possible failure mode of reactor pressure vessel and its failure time are especially a matter of importance. Thermal behavior of the molten pool can be simulated by the Phase-change Effective Convectivity Model (PECM), which is a distributed-parameter model developed in the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden. The model calculates convective currents not using a pure CFD approach but based on so called “characteristic velocities” that are determined by empirical correlations depending on the geometry and physical properties of the molten pool. At the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the PECM has been implemented in the open-source CFD software OpenFOAM in order to receive detailed predictions of a core melt behavior in the RPV lower head under severe accident conditions. An advantage of using OpenFOAM is that it is very flexible to add and modify models and physical properties. In the current work, the solver is extended to couple PECM with a structure analysis model of the vessel wall. The model considers thermal expansion, plasticity, creep and damage. The model and physical properties are based on those implemented in ANSYS. Although the previous implementation had restriction that the amount of and geometry of the melt cannot be changed, our coupled model allows flexibility of the melt amount and geometry. The extended solver was used to simulate the LIVE-L1 and -L7V experiments and has demonstrated good prediction of the temperature distribution in the molten pool and heat flux distribution through the vessel wall. Regarding the vessel failure the model was applied to one of the FOREVER tests

  19. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Y.H.J. [Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States) and Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)]. E-mail: yhc@umd.edu; Mosleh, A. [Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2007-08-15

    This is the fourth in a series of five papers describing the Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context (IDAC) operator response model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model has been developed to probabilistically predicts the responses of a nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper assesses the effects of the performance-influencing factors (PIFs) affecting the operators' problem-solving responses including information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision making (D), and action execution (A). Literature support and justifications are provided for the assessment on the influences of PIFs.

  20. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the fourth in a series of five papers describing the Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context (IDAC) operator response model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model has been developed to probabilistically predicts the responses of a nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper assesses the effects of the performance-influencing factors (PIFs) affecting the operators' problem-solving responses including information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision making (D), and action execution (A). Literature support and justifications are provided for the assessment on the influences of PIFs

  1. Validation of CFD modeling for VGM loss-of-forced-cooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wysocki, Aaron; Ahmed, Bobby; Charmeau, Anne; Anghaie, Samim

    2009-01-01

    Heat transfer and fluid flow in the VGM reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) was modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The VGM is a Russian modular-type high temperature helium-cooled reactor. In the reactor cavity, heat is removed from the pressure vessel wall through natural convection and radiative heat transfer to water-cooled vertical pipes lining the outer cavity concrete. The RCCS heat removal capability under normal operation and accident scenarios needs to be assessed. The purpose of the present study is to validate the use of CFD to model heat transfer in the VGM RCCS. Calculations were based on a benchmark problem which defines a two-dimensional temperature distribution on the pressure vessel outer wall for both Depressurized and Pressurized Loss-of-Forced Cooling events. A two-dimensional axisymmetric model was developed to determine the best numerical modeling approach. A grid sensitivity study for the air region showed that a 20 mm mesh size with a boundary layer giving a maximum y+ of 2.0 was optimal. Sensitivity analyses determined that the discrete ordinates radiative model, the k-omega turbulence model, and the ideal gas law gave the best combination for capturing radiation and natural circulation in the air cavity. A maximum RCCS pipe wall temperature of 62degC located 6 m from the top of the cavity was predicted. The model showed good agreement with previous results for both Pressurized and Depressurized Loss-of-Forced-Cooling accidents based on RCCS coolant outlet temperature, relative contributions of radiative and convective heat transfer, and RCCS heat load profiles. (author)

  2. A fast prediction of plant behaviour in the steam generator tube rupture accident at Mihama unit 2 using a similar case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gofuku, Akio; Tanaka, Yutaka; Numoto, Atsushi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu.

    1996-01-01

    It is important to predict fast and accurately future trend of behaviour of a nuclear power plant in an emergency situation. The case-based reasoning is a strong tool for this purpose because it solves a problem by effectively using past similar cases. This study investigates the applicability of the case-based reasoning as a fast prediction technique of plant behaviour. This paper discusses a prediction of initial plant behaviour in the steam generator tube rupture accident happened at the Mihama nuclear power plant unit 2 by using the behaviour data of an accident of the same type happened at Prairie Island nuclear power plant unit 1. The prediction results coincide well with the reported plant behaviour although there are several important differences in the detailed plant specifications and operator actions between the two SGTR accidents. (author)

  3. Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    The demands on nuclear fuel have recently been increasing, and include transient regimes, higher discharge burnup and longer fuel cycles. This has resulted in an increase of loads on fuel and core internals. In order to satisfy these demands while ensuring compliance with safety criteria, new national and international programmes have been launched and advanced modelling codes are being developed. The Fukushima Daiichi accident has particularly demonstrated the need for adequate analysis of all aspects of fuel performance to prevent a failure and also to predict fuel behaviour were an accident to occur.This publication presents the Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents, which was hosted by the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) in Chengdu, China, following the recommendation made in 2013 at the IAEA Technical Working Group on Fuel Performance and Technology. This recommendation was in agreement with IAEA mid-term initiatives, linked to the post-Fukushima IAEA Nuclear Safety Action Plan, as well as the forthcoming Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Fuel Modelling in Accident Conditions. At the technical meeting in Chengdu, major areas and physical phenomena, as well as types of code and experiment to be studied and used in the CRP, were discussed. The technical meeting provided a forum for international experts to review the state of the art of code development for modelling fuel performance of nuclear fuel for water cooled reactors with regard to steady state and transient conditions, and for design basis and early phases of severe accidents, including experimental support for code validation. A round table discussion focused on the needs and perspectives on fuel modelling in accident conditions. This meeting was the ninth in a series of IAEA meetings, which reflects Member States’ continuing interest in nuclear fuel issues. The previous meetings were held in 1980 (jointly with

  4. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  5. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  6. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  7. CFD investigating the air ingress accident for a HTGR simulation of graphite corrosion oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferng, Y.M.; Chi, C.W.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A CFD model is proposed to investigate graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10. ► A postulated air ingress accident is assumed in this paper. ► Air ingress flowrate is the predicted result, instead of the preset one. ► O 2 would react with graphite on pebble surface, causing the graphite corrosion. ► No fuel exposure is predicted to be occurred under the air ingress accident. - Abstract: Through a compressible multi-component CFD model, this paper investigates the characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10 core under the postulated accident of gas duct rupture. In this accident, air in the steam generator cavity would enter into the core after pressure equilibrium is achieved between the core and the cavity, which is also called as the air ingress accident. Oxygen in the air would react with graphite on pebble surface, subsequently resulting in oxidation corrosion and challenging fuel integrity. In this paper, characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion during the air ingress accident can be reasonably captured, including distributions of graphite corrosion amount on the different cross-sections, time histories of local corrosion amount at the monitoring points and overall corrosion amount in the core, respectively. Based on the transient simulation results, the corrosion pattern and its corrosion rate would approach to the steady-state conditions as the accident continuously progresses. The total amount of graphite corrosion during a 3-day accident time is predicted to be about 31 kg with the predicted asymptotic corrosion rate. This predicted value is less than that from the previous work of Gao and Shi.

  8. Development of a parametric containment event tree model for a severe BWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1995-04-01

    A containment event tree (CET) is built for analysis of severe accidents at the TVO boiling water reactor (BWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to correspond to new research results. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting, and are focused mainly on the use and effects of the dedicated severe accident management (SAM) systems. Severe accident progression from eight plant damage states (PDS), involving different pre-core-damage accident evolution, is examined, but the inclusion of their relative or absolute probabilities, by integration with Level 1, is deferred to integral safety assessments. (33 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.).

  9. Identifying traffic accident black spots with Poisson-Tweedie models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debrabant, Birgit; Halekoh, Ulrich; Bonat, Wagner Hugo

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims at the identification of black spots for traffic accidents, i.e. locations with accident counts beyond what is usual for similar locations, using spatially and temporally aggregated hospital records from Funen, Denmark. Specifically, we apply an autoregressive Poisson-Tweedie model...... considered calendar years and calculated by simulations a probability of p=0.03 for these to be chance findings. Altogether, our results recommend these sites for further investigation and suggest that our simple approach could play a role in future area based traffic accident prevention planning....

  10. Development of an Accident Diagnostic Scheme Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, M. G.; Lee, S. H.; Kim, D. S.; No, Y. G.; Lee, S. W. [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, K. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-06-15

    As a means to effectively manage the severe nuclear accidents, it is important to identify and diagnose the accident initiating events during an initial short time interval after the accidents by observing the major controlling parameters. Main objective of this study is to develop the diagnostic approach for the accurate prediction of accident initiating events using artificial intelligence techniques. For this, first, a variety of artificial intelligence techniques such as Finn, Gmbh, and Sm were examined through this study. Among them, Sc and Gmbh model were assessed as a useful approach to predict the break location and the break size of Local. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, the 111 accident simulation data (based on Map) were applied to train the Sc and Gmbh models, and the test data was used to independently verify whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The analysis of the maximum errors and RMS errors, and the performance of the GMDH according to the existence of measurement errors and SIS actuation showed that the proposed SVC and GMDH models can accurately classify the break locations and accurately predict the break size. As the time-integrated signals were used for inputs into the GMDH model within a period of 60 second after a reactor scram, the actuation of the safety systems such as safety injection system (SIS), auxiliary feed water system, and containment spray system, were not considered in this study. It is because the initial 60 second time-integrated signals were used and the safety systems usually start to actuate after a more than 60 second time delay after the reactor scram

  11. Development of an Accident Diagnostic Scheme Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, M. G.; Lee, S. H.; Kim, D. S.; No, Y. G.; Lee, S. W.; Ahn, K. I.

    2010-06-01

    As a means to effectively manage the severe nuclear accidents, it is important to identify and diagnose the accident initiating events during an initial short time interval after the accidents by observing the major controlling parameters. Main objective of this study is to develop the diagnostic approach for the accurate prediction of accident initiating events using artificial intelligence techniques. For this, first, a variety of artificial intelligence techniques such as Finn, Gmbh, and Sm were examined through this study. Among them, Sc and Gmbh model were assessed as a useful approach to predict the break location and the break size of Local. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, the 111 accident simulation data (based on Map) were applied to train the Sc and Gmbh models, and the test data was used to independently verify whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The analysis of the maximum errors and RMS errors, and the performance of the GMDH according to the existence of measurement errors and SIS actuation showed that the proposed SVC and GMDH models can accurately classify the break locations and accurately predict the break size. As the time-integrated signals were used for inputs into the GMDH model within a period of 60 second after a reactor scram, the actuation of the safety systems such as safety injection system (SIS), auxiliary feed water system, and containment spray system, were not considered in this study. It is because the initial 60 second time-integrated signals were used and the safety systems usually start to actuate after a more than 60 second time delay after the reactor scram

  12. Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past

  13. Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

    1996-12-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

  14. Advanced surrogate model and sensitivity analysis methods for sodium fast reactor accident assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrel, A.; Marie, N.; De Lozzo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Within the framework of the generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors, the safety in case of severe accidents is assessed. From this statement, CEA has developed a new physical tool to model the accident initiated by the Total Instantaneous Blockage (TIB) of a sub-assembly. This TIB simulator depends on many uncertain input parameters. This paper aims at proposing a global methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques in order to perform a global sensitivity analysis of this TIB simulator. The objective is to identify the most influential uncertain inputs for the various TIB outputs involved in the safety analysis. The proposed statistical methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques enables to take into account the constraints on the TIB simulator outputs (positivity constraints) and to deal simultaneously with various outputs. To do this, a space-filling design is used and the corresponding TIB model simulations are performed. Based on this learning sample, an efficient constrained Gaussian process metamodel is fitted on each TIB model outputs. Then, using the metamodels, classical sensitivity analyses are made for each TIB output. Multivariate global sensitivity analyses based on aggregated indices are also performed, providing additional valuable information. Main conclusions on the influence of each uncertain input are derived. - Highlights: • Physical-statistical tool for Sodium Fast Reactors TIB accident. • 27 uncertain parameters (core state, lack of physical knowledge) are highlighted. • Constrained Gaussian process efficiently predicts TIB outputs (safety criteria). • Multivariate sensitivity analyses reveal that three inputs are mainly influential. • The type of corium propagation (thermal or hydrodynamic) is the most influential

  15. Benchmarking of fast-running software tools used to model releases during nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devitt, P.; Viktorov, A., E-mail: Peter.Devitt@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca, E-mail: Alex.Viktorov@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Fukushima highlighted the importance of effective nuclear accident response. However, its complexity greatly impacted the ability to provide timely and accurate information to national and international stakeholders. Safety recommendations provided by different national and international organizations varied notably. Such differences can partially be attributed to different methods used in the initial assessment of accident progression and the amount of radioactivity release.Therefore, a comparison of methodologies was undertaken by the NEA/CSNI and its highlights are presented here. For this project, the prediction tools used by various emergency response organizations for estimating the source terms and public doses were examined. Those organizations that have a capability to use such tools responded to a questionnaire describing each code's capabilities and main algorithms. Then the project's participants analyzed five accident scenarios to predict the source term, dispersion of releases and public doses. (author)

  16. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the second in a series of five papers describing the information, decision, and action in crew context (IDAC) model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, psychological, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper identifies the IDAC set of performance influencing factors (PIFs), providing their definitions and causal organization in the form of a modular influence diagram. Fifty PIFs are identified to support the IDAC model to be implemented in a computer simulation environment. They are classified into eleven hierarchically structured groups. The PIFs within each group are independent to each other; however, dependencies may exist between PIFs within different groups. The supporting evidence for the selection and organization of the influence paths based on psychological literature, observations, and various human reliability analysis methodologies is also indicated

  17. The risk of major nuclear accident: calculation and perception of probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveque, Francois

    2013-01-01

    Whereas before the Fukushima accident, already eight major accidents occurred in nuclear power plants, a number which is higher than that expected by experts and rather close to that corresponding of people perception of risk, the author discusses how to understand these differences and reconcile observations, objective probability of accidents and subjective assessment of risks, why experts have been over-optimistic, whether public opinion is irrational regarding nuclear risk, and how to measure risk and its perception. Thus, he addresses and discusses the following issues: risk calculation (cost, calculated frequency of major accident, bias between the number of observed accidents and model predictions), perceived probabilities and aversion for disasters (perception biases of probability, perception biases unfavourable to nuclear), the Bayes contribution and its application (Bayes-Laplace law, statistics, choice of an a priori probability, prediction of the next event, probability of a core fusion tomorrow)

  18. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

    1985-01-01

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  19. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  20. Test Data for USEPR Severe Accident Code Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. L. Rempe

    2007-05-01

    This document identifies data that can be used for assessing various models embodied in severe accident analysis codes. Phenomena considered in this document, which were limited to those anticipated to be of interest in assessing severe accidents in the USEPR developed by AREVA, include: • Fuel Heatup and Melt Progression • Reactor Coolant System (RCS) Thermal Hydraulics • In-Vessel Molten Pool Formation and Heat Transfer • Fuel/Coolant Interactions during Relocation • Debris Heat Loads to the Vessel • Vessel Failure • Molten Core Concrete Interaction (MCCI) and Reactor Cavity Plug Failure • Melt Spreading and Coolability • Hydrogen Control Each section of this report discusses one phenomenon of interest to the USEPR. Within each section, an effort is made to describe the phenomenon and identify what data are available modeling it. As noted in this document, models in US accident analysis codes (MAAP, MELCOR, and SCDAP/RELAP5) differ. Where possible, this report identifies previous assessments that illustrate the impact of modeling differences on predicting various phenomena. Finally, recommendations regarding the status of data available for modeling USEPR severe accident phenomena are summarized.

  1. Integral thermal model of severe accident dynamics of NPP with containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bol'shov, L.A.; Vasil'ev, A.D.; Kamennov, G.P.

    1991-01-01

    An analytical model of the interaction of reactor core remains with concrete during severe accidents at nuclear power plants is considered. Time dependences of side and radial concrete melting are plotted. Time dependences of containment atmosphere temperature and pressure during a severe accident at nuclear power plants are investigated analytically and numerically. The sensitivity of the results to the coefficient values in the problem is studied within the range of their concertainty. The Kaverna-1 is described. The results of modelling a severe NPP accident which have been obtained using the Kaverna-1 package are presented

  2. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maderich, V.; Bezhenar, R.; Heling, R.; With, G. de; Jung, K.T.; Myoung, J.G.; Cho, Y.-K.; Qiao, F.; Robertson, L.

    2014-01-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945–2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011–2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from 137 Cs data for the period 1945–2010. Calculated concentrations of 137 Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y −1 is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of 137 Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y −1 . Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  3. Investigation of Zircaloy-2 oxidation model for SFP accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemoto, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: nemoto.yoshiyuki@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Chihiro; Kondo, Keietsu [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Nakashima, Kazuo; Kanazawa, Toru; Tojo, Masayuki [Global Nuclear Fuel – Japan Co., Ltd., 2-3-1, Uchikawa, Yokosuka-shi, Kanagawa, 239-0836 (Japan)

    2017-05-15

    The authors previously conducted thermogravimetric analyses on Zircaloy-2 in air. By using the thermogravimetric data, an oxidation model was constructed in this study so that it can be applied for the modeling of cladding degradation in spent fuel pool (SFP) severe accident condition. For its validation, oxidation tests of long cladding tube were conducted, and computational fluid dynamics analyses using the constructed oxidation model were proceeded to simulate the experiments. In the oxidation tests, high temperature thermal gradient along the cladding axis was applied and air flow rates in testing chamber were controlled to simulate hypothetical SFP accidents. The analytical outputs successfully reproduced the growth of oxide film and porous oxide layer on the claddings in oxidation tests, and validity of the oxidation model was proved. Influence of air flow rate for the oxidation behavior was thought negligible in the conditions investigated in this study. - Highlights: •An oxidation model of Zircaloy-2 in air environment was developed. •The oxidation model was validated by the comparison with oxidation tests using long cladding tubes in hypothetical spent fuel pool accident condition. •The oxidation model successfully reproduced the typical oxidation behavior in air.

  4. Cost-effectiveness analysis of countermeasures using accident consequence assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.

    1987-01-01

    In the event of a large release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, protective actions for the population potentially affected must be implemented. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be useful to define the countermeasures and the criteria needed to implement them. This paper shows the application of Accident Consequence Assessment (ACA) models to cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency and long-term countermeasures, making use of the different relationships between dose, contamination levels, affected areas and population distribution, included in such a model. The procedure is illustrated with the new Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS 1.3), developed at Sandia National Laboratories (USA), for a fixed accident scenario. Different alternative actions are evaluated with regard to their radiological and economical impact, searching for an 'optimum' strategy. (author)

  5. Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egarievwe, Stephen U. [Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science Center, Alabama A and M University, Huntsville, AL (United States); Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Coble, Jamie B.; Miller, Laurence F. [Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131 and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 μSv/h, compared

  6. Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egarievwe, Stephen U.; Coble, Jamie B.; Miller, Laurence F.

    2015-01-01

    The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131 and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 μSv/h, compared

  7. ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.; Schulz, R.

    2002-01-01

    The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enable much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)

  8. Development on Dose Assessment Model of Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ju Yub; Kim, Ju Youl; Kim, Suk Hoon; Lee, Seung Hee; Yoon, Tae Bin [FNC Techology, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In order to support the emergency response system, the simulator for overseas nuclear accident is under development including source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion modeling and dose assessment. The simulator is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator). For the source-term estimation, design characteristics of each reactor type should be reflected into the model. Since there are a lot of reactor types in neighboring countries, the representative reactors of China, Japan and Taiwan have been selected and the source-term estimation models for each reactor have been developed, respectively. For the atmospheric dispersion modeling, Lagrangian particle model will be integrated into the simulator for the long range dispersion modeling in Northeast Asia region. In this study, the dose assessment model has been developed considering external and internal exposure. The dose assessment model has been developed as a part of the overseas nuclear accidents simulator which is named NANAS. It addresses external and internal pathways including cloudshine, groundshine and inhalation. Also, it uses the output of atmospheric dispersion model (i.e. the average concentrations of radionuclides in air and ground) and various coefficients (e.g. dose conversion factor and breathing rate) as an input. Effective dose and thyroid dose for each grid in the Korean Peninsula region are printed out as a format of map projection and chart. Verification and validation on the dose assessment model will be conducted in further study by benchmarking with the measured data of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident.

  9. Response of Soviet VVER-440 accident localization systems to overpressurization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulak, R.F.; Fiala, C.; Sienicki, J.J.

    1989-01-01

    The Soviet designed VVER-440 model V230 and VVER-440 model V213 reactors do not use full containments to mitigate the effects of accidents. Instead, these VVER-440 units employ a sealed set of interconnected compartments, collectively called the accident localization system (ALS), to reduce the release of radionuclides to the atmosphere during accidents. Descriptions of the VVER accident localization structures may be found in the report DOE NE-0084. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the structural integrity of the VVER-440 ALS at the Soviet design pressure, and to determine their response to pressure loadings beyond the design value. Complex, three-dimensional, nonlinear, finite element models were developed to represent the major structural components of the localization systems of the VVER-440 models V230 and V213. The interior boundary of the localization system was incrementally pressurized in the calculations until the prediction of gross failure. 6 refs., 9 figs

  10. Determination of doses to different organs and prediction of health detriment, after hypothetical accident in mtr reactor core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amin, E A; Abd El-Ghani, A H [National Center of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1997-12-31

    As a result of pypothetical accidents with release of high amount of fission products, the doses to different organs consequent upon inhalation of radioactive fission products are calculated. The processes are modeled using the ORIGIN and TIRION-4 codes: source term, containment and activity enclosure, time dependent activity behaviour in the building, and radiation exposure in the reactor building. Prediction of health detriments were calculated using ICRP-60 nominal probability coefficients and organ doses determined for bone, lung, and thyroid gland, after whole body exposure from internal inhalation and external emmersion. 11 tabs.

  11. Containment severe accident thermohydraulic phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frid, W.

    1991-08-01

    This report describes and discusses the containment accident progression and the important severe accident containment thermohydraulic phenomena. The overall objective of the report is to provide a rather detailed presentation of the present status of phenomenological knowledge, including an account of relevant experimental investigations and to discuss, to some extent, the modelling approach used in the MAAP 3.0 computer code. The MAAP code has been used in Sweden as the main tool in the analysis of severe accidents. The dependence of the containment accident progression and containment phenomena on the initial conditions, which in turn are heavily dependent on the in-vessel accident progression and phenomena as well as associated uncertainties, is emphasized. The report is in three parts dealing with: * Swedish reactor containments, the severe accident mitigation programme in Sweden and containment accident progression in Swedish PWRs and BWRs as predicted by the MAAP 3.0 code. * Key non-energetic ex-vessel phenomena (melt fragmentation in water, melt quenching and coolability, core-concrete interaction and high temperature in containment). * Early containment threats due to energetic events (hydrogen combustion, high pressure melt ejection and direct containment heating, and ex-vessel steam explosions). The report concludes that our understanding of the containment severe accident progression and phenomena has improved very significantly over the parts ten years and, thereby, our ability to assess containment threats, to quantify uncertainties, and to interpret the results of experiments and computer code calculations have also increased. (au)

  12. Full scale simulations of accidents on spent-nuclear-fuel shipping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, H.R.

    1978-01-01

    In 1977 and 1978, five first-of-a-kind full scale tests of spent-nuclear-fuel shipping systems were conducted at Sandia Laboratories. The objectives of this broad test program were (1) to assess and demonstrate the validity of current analytical and scale modeling techniques for predicting damage in accident conditions by comparing predicted results with actual test results, and (2) to gain quantitative knowledge of extreme accident environments by assessing the response of full scale hardware under actual test conditions. The tests were not intended to validate the present regulatory standards. The spent fuel cask tests fell into the following configurations: crashes of a truck-transport system into a massive concrete barrier (100 and 130 km/h); a grade crossing impact test (130 km/h) involving a locomotive and a stalled tractor-trailer; and a railcar shipping system impact into a massive concrete barrier (130 km/h) followed by fire. In addition to collecting much data on the response of cask transport systems, the program has demonstrated thus far that current analytical and scale modeling techniques are valid approaches for predicting vehicular and cask damage in accident environments. The tests have also shown that the spent casks tested are extremely rugged devices capable of retaining their radioactive contents in very severe accidents

  13. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe, in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  14. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-01

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe - in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  15. Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1996-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination form the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied form 1990-1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  16. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    OpenAIRE

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko; Ayu Ratnawinanda Lila

    2017-01-01

    Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD). System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate...

  17. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, Orihiko; Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsuzuru, Hideo; Kobayashi, Sadayoshi

    1991-02-01

    A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard University (NUREG/CR-4214). These models are revised on the basis of the new information on risk estimates by the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The models deal with the following effects: (1) early effects models for bone marrow, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, central nervous system, thyroid, skin and reproductive organs, using the Weibull function, (2) late somatic effects models including leukemia and cancers of breast, lungs, thyroid, gastrointestinal tract and so forth, on the basis of the information derived from epidemiological studies on the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, (3) models for late and developmental effects due to exposure in utero. (author)

  18. Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1979-01-01

    A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

  19. A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertch, Timothy Creston

    1998-12-01

    Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release

  20. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Bezhenar, R.; Brown, J.; Cheng, J. -J.; Ćujić, M.; Dragović, S.; Duffa, C.; Fiévet, B.; Hosseini, A.; Jung, K. T.; Kamboj, S.; Keum, D. -K.; Kryshev, A.; LePoire, D.; Maderich, V.; Min, B. -I.; Periáñez, R.; Sazykina, T.; Suh, K. -S.; Yu, C.; Wang, C.; Heling, R.

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

  1. Boundary effects on car accidents in a cellular automaton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xianqing; Ma Yuqiang; Zhao Yuemin

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we numerically study the probability P ac of occurrence of car accidents in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model with open boundary condition. In the deterministic NS model, numerical results show that there exists a critical value of extinction rate β above which no car accidents occur, and below which the probability P ac is independent of the speed limit v max and the injection rate α, but only determined by the extinction rate β. In the non-deterministic NS model, the probability P ac is a non-monotonic function of β in the region of low β value, while it is independent of β in the region of high β value. The stochastic braking not only reduces the occurrence of car accidents, but splits degenerate effects of v max on the probability P ac . Theoretical analyses give an agreement with numerical results in the deterministic NS model and in the non-deterministic NS model with v max = 1 in the case of low β value region. Qualitative differences between open and periodic systems in the relations of P ac to the bulk density ρ imply that various correlations may exist between the two systems

  2. Development of a fission product transport module predicting the behavior of radiological materials during sever accidents in a nuclear power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyung Seok; Rhee, Bo Wook; Kim, Dong Ha [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-09-15

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is developing a fission product transport module for predicting the behavior of radioactive materials in the primary cooling system of a nuclear power plant as a separate module, which will be connected to a severe accident analysis code, Core Meltdown Progression Accident Simulation Software (COMPASS). This fission product transport (COMPASS-FP) module consists of a fission product release model, an aerosol generation model, and an aerosol transport model. In the fission product release model there are three submodels based on empirical correlations, and they are used to simulate the fission product gases release from the reactor core. In the aerosol generation model, the mass conservation law and Raoult's law are applied to the mixture of vapors and droplets of the fission products in a specified control volume to find the generation of the aerosol droplet. In the aerosol transport model, empirical correlations available from the open literature are used to simulate the aerosol removal processes owing to the gravitational settling, inertia impaction, diffusiophoresis, and thermophoresis. The COMPASS-FP module was validated against Aerosol Behavior Code Validation and Evaluation (ABCOVE-5) test performed by Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory for comparing the prediction and test data. The comparison results assuming a non-spherical aerosol shape for the suspended aerosol mass concentration showed a good agreement with an error range of about ±6%. It was found that the COMPASS-FP module produced the reasonable results of the fission product gases release, the aerosol generation, and the gravitational settling in the aerosol removal processes for ABCOVE-5. However, more validation for other aerosol removal models needs to be performed.

  3. Development of hydrogeological modelling approaches for assessment of consequences of hazardous accidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumynin, V.G.; Mironenko, V.A.; Konosavsky, P.K.; Pereverzeva, S.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper introduces some modeling approaches for predicting the influence of hazardous accidents at nuclear reactors on groundwater quality. Possible pathways for radioactive releases from nuclear power plants were considered to conceptualize boundary conditions for solving the subsurface radionuclides transport problems. Some approaches to incorporate physical-and-chemical interactions into transport simulators have been developed. The hydrogeological forecasts were based on numerical and semi-analytical scale-dependent models. They have been applied to assess the possible impact of the nuclear power plants designed in Russia on groundwater reservoirs

  4. Desktop Severe Accident Graphic Simulator Module for CANDU6 : PSAIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. Y.; Song, Y. M.

    2015-01-01

    The ISAAC ((Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Code for CANDU Plant) code is a system level computer code capable of performing integral analyses of potential severe accident progressions in nuclear power plants, whose main purpose is to support a Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment or severe accident management strategy developments. The code has the capability to predict a severe accident progression by modeling the CANDU6- specific systems and the expected physical phenomena based on the current understanding of the unique accident progressions. The code models the sequence of accident progressions from a core heatup, pressure tube/calandria tube rupture after an uncovery from inside and outside, a relocation of the damaged fuel to the bottom of the calandria, debris behavior in the calandria, corium quenching after a debris relocation from the calandria to the calandria vault and an erosion of the calandria vault concrete floor, a hydrogen burn, and a reactor building failure. Along with the thermal hydraulics, the fission product behavior is also considered in the primary system as well as in the reactor building

  5. Theoretical Derivation of Simplified Evaluation Models for the First Peak of a Criticality Accident in Nuclear Fuel Solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Yasushi

    2000-01-01

    In a reprocessing facility where nuclear fuel solutions are processed, one could observe a series of power peaks, with the highest peak right after a criticality accident. The criticality alarm system (CAS) is designed to detect the first power peak and warn workers near the reacting material by sounding alarms immediately. Consequently, exposure of the workers would be minimized by an immediate and effective evacuation. Therefore, in the design and installation of a CAS, it is necessary to estimate the magnitude of the first power peak and to set up the threshold point where the CAS initiates the alarm. Furthermore, it is necessary to estimate the level of potential exposure of workers in the case of accidents so as to decide the appropriateness of installing a CAS for a given compartment.A simplified evaluation model to estimate the minimum scale of the first power peak during a criticality accident is derived by theoretical considerations only for use in the design of a CAS to set up the threshold point triggering the alarm signal. Another simplified evaluation model is derived in the same way to estimate the maximum scale of the first power peak for use in judging the appropriateness for installing a CAS. Both models are shown to have adequate margin in predicting the minimum and maximum scale of criticality accidents by comparing their results with French CRiticality occurring ACcidentally (CRAC) experimental data

  6. Operator modeling of a loss-of-pumping accident using MicroSAINT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, L.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) human factors group has been developing methods for analyzing nuclear reactor operator actions during hypothetical design-basis accident scenarios. The SRL reactors operate at a lower temperature and pressure than power reactors resulting in accident sequences that differ from those of power reactors. Current methodology development is focused on modeling control room operator response times dictated by system event times specified in the Savannah River Site Reactor Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The modeling methods must be flexible enough to incorporate changes to hardware, procedures, or postulated system event times and permit timely evaluation. The initial model developed was for the loss-of-pumping accident (LOPA) because a significant number of operator actions are required to respond to this postulated event. Human factors engineers had been researching and testing a network modeling simulation language called MicroSAINT to simulate operators' personal and interpersonal actions relative to operating system events. The LOPA operator modeling project demonstrated the versatility and flexibility of MicroSAINT for modeling control room crew interactions

  7. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequential techniques, epidemiological techniques and systemic techniques, where the marine accidents are included in the epidemiological technique. This study compares the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART methodology and the 4M Overturned Pyramid (MOP model, which are applied to assess marine accidents. Furthermore, the MOP model can effectively describe the relationships of other factors which affect the accidents; whereas, the HEART methodology is only focused on human factors.

  8. Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

  9. Reactivity insertion accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, J.M.L.; Nakata, H.; Yorihaz, H.

    1990-04-01

    The correct prediction of postulated accidents is the fundamental requirement for the reactor licensing procedures. Accident sequences and severity of their consequences depend upon the analysis which rely on analytical tools which must be validated against known experimental results. Present work presents a systematic approach to analyse and estimate the reactivity insertion accident sequences. The methodology is based on the CINETHICA code which solves the point-kinetics/thermohydraulic coupled equations with weighted temperature feedback. Comparison against SPERT experimental results shows good agreement for the step insertion accidents. (author) [pt

  10. γ radiation level simulation and analysis with MCNP in EPR containment during severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng Jun; Liu Shuhuan; Wang Yang; Zhai Liang

    2013-01-01

    The γ dosimetry model based on the EPR core structure, material composition and the designed shielding system was established. The γ-ray dose rate distributions in EPR containment under different conditions including normal operation state, loss-of-coolant accident and core melt severe accident were simulated with MCNP5, and the calculation results under normal operation state and severe accident were compared and analyzed respectively with that of the designed limit. The study results may provide some relative data reference for EPR core accident prediction and reactor accident emergency decision making. (authors)

  11. Models and criteria for prediction of Deflagration-to-Detonation Transition (DDT) in hydrogen-air-steam systems under severe accident conditions. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, R.; Rehm, W.

    1999-01-01

    The European Commission in Brussels supported a joint project on Deflagration-to-Detonation Transition (DDT) studies for hydrogen safety within the framework programme on nuclear fission safety. The project was initiated by the Forschungszentrum Juelich based on the results of a pilot project. The following main project was coordinated by the Freie Universitaet Berlin involving seven european partners. The partners came from universities, research centers and industry, as follows: FU-Berlin, RWTH-Aachen, CNRS-Marseille, IPSN-Saclay, FZ-Juelich, FZ-Karlsruhe, and NNC-Knutsford, which worked closely together. The working period was two years (1997-1998). The aim of the project was to develop models and criteria for prediction of deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in hydrogen-air-steam systems under severe accident conditions. The results obtained are documented in this final report, which was finished in 1999. The report consists of seven chapters, concerning: - Introduction - Experimental Investigations - Modelling and Numerics - Validation - Mitigation - Further Deliverables - Summary and Conclusion. The final report presents special experimental, theoretical, and computational aspects of the complex DDT phenomena for hydrogen safety studies, and it should be a solid basis for end user applications and further developments. (orig.)

  12. A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M.

    1988-01-01

    A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Monitoring Severe Accidents Using AI Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No, Young Gyu; Kim, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang Il

    2011-01-01

    It is very difficult for nuclear power plant operators to monitor and identify the major severe accident scenarios following an initiating event by staring at temporal trends of important parameters. The objective of this study is to develop and verify the monitoring for severe accidents using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH) and fuzzy neural network (FNN). The SVC and PNN are used for event classification among the severe accidents. Also, GMDH and FNN are used to monitor for severe accidents. The inputs to AI techniques are initial time-integrated values obtained by integrating measurement signals during a short time interval after reactor scram. In this study, 3 types of initiating events such as the hot-leg LOCA, the cold-leg LOCA and SGTR are considered and it is verified how well the proposed scenario identification algorithm using the GMDH and FNN models identifies the timings when the reactor core will be uncovered, when CET will exceed 1200 .deg. F and when the reactor vessel will fail. In cases that an initiating event develops into a severe accident, the proposed algorithm showed accurate classification of initiating events. Also, it well predicted timings for important occurrences during severe accident progression scenarios, which is very helpful for operators to perform severe accident management

  14. Effects of rainstorms and runoff on consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1976-10-01

    A preliminary model describing the effects of washout and runoff on the consequences of a nuclear reactor accident is presented. The most important new feature of this stratified model relative to the model in WASH-1400 is the spatial structure of rainstorms and runoff consisting of four levels of rain activity that are normalized by rain gage data. The predicted concentrations of radioactivity and resultant health consequences of the stratified model are compared with those of the model in WASH-1400 for simplified rainstorms with fixed meteorological conditions, an actual rainstorm, and a stratified sample run consisting of 91 separate reactor accidents. In the case of individual storms, runoff and the spatial structure of the rain in the new model can result in health consequences that are significantly different from those of the WASH-1400 model. The differences between the predictions of the two models are small for the stratified sample run

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion

  16. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.

    1985-01-01

    SAS4A is a new code system which has been designed for analyzing the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modeling the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel motion experiment analyses are also presented

  17. Overview of core disruptive accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchaterre, J.F.

    1977-01-01

    An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

  18. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negut, Gheorghe [National Agency for Radioactive Waste, 1, Campului Str., 115400 Mioveni (Romania)], E-mail: gheorghe.negut@andrad.ro; Catana, Alexandru [Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, 1, Campului Str., Mioveni P.O. Box 78, 0300 Pitesti (Romania); Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel [Politehnica University Bucharest, 313, Splaiul Independentei, Sect. 6, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2009-09-15

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  19. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, Gheorghe; Catana, Alexandru; Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  20. Rupture behaviour of nuclear fuel cladding during loss-of-coolant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suman, Siddharth [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, Patna 801 103 (India); Khan, Mohd Kaleem, E-mail: mkkhan@iitp.ac.in [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, Patna 801 103 (India); Pathak, Manabendra [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, Patna 801 103 (India); Singh, R.N.; Chakravartty, J.K. [Mechanical Metallurgy Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085 (India)

    2016-10-15

    Highlights: • Modelling of nuclear fuel cladding during loss-of-coolant accident transient. • Phase transformation, corrosion, and creep combined to evaluate burst criterion. • Effect of oxygen concentration on burst stress and burst strain. • Effect of heating rate, internal pressure fluctuation, shear modulus incorporated. - Abstract: A burst criterion model accounting the simultaneous phenomena of corrosion, solute-strengthening effect of oxygen, oxygen concentration based non-isothermal phase transformation, and thermal creep has been developed to predict the rupture behaviour of zircaloy-4 nuclear fuel cladding during the loss-of-coolant accident transients. The present burst criterion model has been validated using experimental data obtained from single-rod transient burst tests performed in steam environment. The predictions are in good agreement with the experimental results. A detailed computational analysis has been performed to assess the role of different parameters in the rupture of zircaloy cladding during loss-of-coolant accidents. This model reveals that at low temperatures, lower heating rates produce higher burst strains as oxidation effect is nominal. For high temperatures, the lower heating rates produce less burst strains, whereas higher heating rates yield greater burst strains.

  1. Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident: experiences of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homma, T; Takahara, S; Kimura, M; Kinase, S

    2015-06-01

    Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident are discussed in this paper based on the experiences following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The criteria for use in nuclear emergencies in the Japanese emergency preparedness guide were based on the recommendations of International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publications 60 and 63. Although the decision-making process for implementing protective actions relied heavily on computer-based predictive models prior to the accident, urgent protective actions, such as evacuation and sheltering, were implemented effectively based on the plant conditions. As there were no recommendations and criteria for long-term protective actions in the emergency preparedness guide, the recommendations of ICRP Publications 103, 109, and 111 were taken into consideration in determining the temporary relocation of inhabitants of heavily contaminated areas. These recommendations were very useful in deciding the emergency protective actions to take in the early stages of the Fukushima accident. However, some suggestions have been made for improving emergency preparedness and response in the early stages of a severe nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

  2. Severe accidents and terrorist threats at nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollack, G.L.

    1987-01-01

    Some of the key areas of uncertainty are the nature of the physical and chemical interactions of released fission products and of the interactions between a molten core and concrete, the completeness and validity of the computer codes used to predict accidents, and the behavior of the containment. Because of these and other uncertainties, it is not yet possible to reliably predict the consequences of reactor accidents. It is known that for many accident scenarios, especially less severe ones or where the containment is not seriously compromised, the amount of radioactive material expected to escape the reactor is less, even much less, than was previously calculated. For such accidents, the predictions are easier and more reliable. With severe accidents, however, there is considerable uncertainty as to the predicted results. For accidents of the type that terrorists might cause - for example, where the sequence of failure would be unexpected or where redundant safety features are caused to fail together - the uncertainties are still larger. The conclusion, then, is that there are potential dangers to the public from terrorist actions at a nuclear reactor; however, because of the variety of potential terrorist threats and the incompleteness of the knowledge about the behavior of reactor components and fission products during accidents, the consequences cannot yet be assessed quantitatively

  3. Severe Accident Management System On-line Network SAMSON

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    SAMSON is a computational tool used by accident managers in the Technical Support Centers (TSC) and Emergency Operations Facilities (EOF) in the event of a nuclear power plant accident. SAMSON examines over 150 status points monitored by nuclear power plant process computers during a severe accident and makes predictions about when core damage, support plate failure, and reactor vessel failure will occur. These predictions are based on the current state of the plant assuming that all safety equipment not already operating will fail. SAMSON uses expert systems, as well as neural networks trained with the back propagation learning algorithms to make predictions. Training on data from an accident analysis code (MAAP - Modular Accident Analysis Program) allows SAMSON to associate different states in the plant with different times to critical failures. The accidents currently recognized by SAMSON include steam generator tube ruptures (SGTRs), with breaks ranging from one tube to eight tubes, and loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), with breaks ranging from 0.0014 square feet (1.30 cm 2 ) in size to breaks 3.0 square feet in size (2800 cm 2 ). (author)

  4. Modelling and analysis of severe accidents for VVER-1000 reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tusheva, Polina

    2012-01-01

    effectiveness of the procedures strongly depends on the ability of the passive safety systems to inject as much water as possible into the reactor coolant system. The results on the early in-vessel phase have shown potentially delayed RPV failure by depressurization of the primary side, as slowing the core damage gives more time and different possibilities for operator interventions to recover systems and to mitigate or terminate the accident. The ANSYS model for the description of the molten pool behaviour in the RPV lower plenum has been extended by a model considering a stratified molten pool configuration. Two different pool configurations were analysed: homogeneous and segregated. The possible failure modes of the RPV and the time to failure were investigated to assess the possible loadings on the containment. The main treated issues are: the temperature field within the corium pool and the RPV and the structure-mechanical behaviour of the vessel wall. The results of the ASTEC calculations of the melt pool configuration were applied as initial conditions for the ANSYS simulations, allowing a more detailed and more accurate modelling of the thermal and mechanical behaviour of the core melt and the RPV wall. Moreover, for the late in-vessel phase, retention of the corium in the RPV was investigated presuming external cooling of the vessel wall as mitigative severe accident management measure. The study was based on the finite element computer code ANSYS. The highest thermomechanical loads are observed in the transition zone between the elliptical and the vertical vessel wall for homogeneous pool and in the vertical part of the vessel wall, which is in contact with the molten metal in case of sub-oxidized pool. Assuming external flooding will retain the corium within the RPV. Without flooding, the vessel wall will fail, as the necessary temperature for a balanced heat release from the external surface via radiation is near to or above the melting point of the steel.

  5. An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

    2013-04-01

    The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingyu; Shi Zhongqi

    2002-01-01

    The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

  7. Global atmospheric dispersion modelling after the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, K.S.; Youm, M.K.; Lee, B.G.; Min, B.I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Korea, Republic of); Raul, P. [Universidad de Sevilla (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    A large amount of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere due to the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The radioactive materials released into the atmosphere were mostly transported to the Pacific Ocean, but some of them were fallen on the surface due to dry and wet depositions in the northwest area from the Fukushima nuclear site. Therefore, northwest part of the nuclear site was seriously contaminated and it was designated with the restricted zone within a radius of 20 ∼ 30 km around the Fukushima nuclear site. In the early phase of the accident from 11 March to 30 March, the radioactive materials were dispersed to an area of the inland and offshore of the nuclear site by the variations of the wind. After the Fukushima accident, the radionuclides were detected through the air monitoring in the many places over the world. The radioactive plume was transported to the east part off the site by the westerly jet stream. It had detected in the North America during March 17-21, in European countries during March 23-24, and in Asia during from March 24 to April 6, 2011. The radioactive materials were overall detected across the northern hemisphere passed by 15 ∼ 20 days after the accident. Three dimensional numerical model was applied to evaluate the dispersion characteristics of the radionuclides released into the air. Simulated results were compared with measurements in many places over the world. Comparative results had good agreements in some places, but they had a little differences in some locations. The difference between the calculations and measurements are due to the meteorological data and relatively coarse resolutions in the model. Some radioactive materials were measured in Philippines, Taiwan, Hon Kong and South Korea during from March 23-28. It inferred that it was directly transported from the Fukushima by the northeastern monsoon winds. This event was well represented in the numerical model. Generally, the simulations had a good

  8. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

    2014-05-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  9. Accident sequence analysis of human-computer interface design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, C.-F.; Chen, W.-H.

    2000-01-01

    It is important to predict potential accident sequences of human-computer interaction in a safety-critical computing system so that vulnerable points can be disclosed and removed. We address this issue by proposing a Multi-Context human-computer interaction Model along with its analysis techniques, an Augmented Fault Tree Analysis, and a Concurrent Event Tree Analysis. The proposed augmented fault tree can identify the potential weak points in software design that may induce unintended software functions or erroneous human procedures. The concurrent event tree can enumerate possible accident sequences due to these weak points

  10. Predictive factors for cerebrovascular accidents after thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariscalco, Giovanni; Piffaretti, Gabriele; Tozzi, Matteo; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Sala, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

    2009-12-01

    Cerebrovascular accidents are devastating and worrisome complications after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The aim of this study was to determine cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Between January 2001 and June 2008, 76 patients treated with thoracic endovascular aortic repair were prospectively enrolled. The study cohort included 61 men; mean age was 65.4 +/- 16.8 years. All patients underwent a specific neurologic assessment on an hourly basis postoperatively to detect neurologic deficits. Cerebrovascular accidents were diagnosed on the basis of physical examination, tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging, or autopsy. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 8 (10.5%) patients, including 4 transient ischemic attack and 4 major strokes. Four cases were observed within the first 24-hours. Multivariable analysis revealed that anatomic incompleteness of the Willis circle (odds ratio [OR] 17.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10 to 140.66), as well as the presence of coronary artery disease (OR 6.86, 95 CI% 1.18 to 40.05), were independently associated with postoperative cerebrovascular accident development. Overall hospital mortality was 9.2%, with no significant difference for patients hit by cerebrovascular accidents (25.0% vs 7.3%, p = 0.102). Preexisting coronary artery disease, reflecting a severe diseased aorta and anomalies of Willis circle are independent cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedures. A careful evaluation of the arch vessels and cerebral vascularization should be mandatory for patients suitable for thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

  11. Severe accident behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R.S.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of severe accident behavior. The term source term is defined and a brief history of the regulatory use of source term is presented. The processes in severe accidents in light water reactors are described with particular emphasis on the relationships between accident thermal-hydraulics and chemistry. Those factors which have the greatest impact on predicted source terms are identified. Design differences between plants that affect source term estimation are also described. The principal unresolved issues are identified that are the focus of ongoing research and debate in the technical community

  12. A Comparative analysis for control rod drop accident in RETRAN DNB and CETOP DNB Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chang Keun; Kim, Yo Han; Ha, Sang Jun

    2009-01-01

    In Korea, the nuclear industries such as fuel manufacturer, the architect engineer and the utility, have been using the methodologies and codes of vendors, such as Westinghouse(WH), Combustion Engineering, for the safety analyses of nuclear power plants. Consequently the industries have kept up the many organizations to operate the methodologies and to maintain the codes for each vendor. It may occur difficulty to improve the safety analyses efficiency and technology related. So, the necessity another of methodologies and code systems applicable to Non- LOCA, beyond design basis accident and performance analyses for all types of pressurized water reactor(PWR) has been raised. Due to the above reason, the Korea Electric Power Research Institute(KEPRI) had decided to develop the new safety analysis code system for Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plants in Korea. As the first requirement, the best-estimate codes were required for applicable wider application area and realistic behavior prediction of power plants with various and sophisticated functions. After the investigation for few candidates, RETRAN-3D has been chosen as a system analysis code. As a part of the feasibility estimation for the methodology and code system, CRD(Control Rod Drop) accident which an event of Non-LOCA accidents for Uljin units 3 and 4 and Yonggwang 1 and 2 was selected to verify the feasibility of the methodology using the RETRAN-3D. In this paper, RETRAN DNB Model and CETOP DNB Model were analyzed by using comparative method

  13. Modelling of HTR Confinement Behaviour during Accidents Involving Breach of the Helium Pressure Boundary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Fontanet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of HTRs requires the performance of a thorough safety study, which includes accident analyses. Confinement building performance is a key element of the system since the behaviour of aerosol and attached fission products within the building is of an utmost relevance in terms of the potential source term to the environment. This paper explores the available simulation capabilities (ASTEC and CONTAIN codes and illustrates the performance of a postulated HTR vented confinement under prototypical accident conditions by a scoping study based on two accident sequences characterized by Helium Pressure Boundary breaches, a small and a large break. The results obtained indicate that both codes predict very similar thermal-hydraulic responses of the confinement both in magnitude and timing. As for the aerosol behaviour, both codes predict that most of the inventory coming into the confinement is eventually depleted on the walls and only about 1% of the aerosol dust is released to the environment. The crosscomparison of codes states that largest differences are in the intercompartmental flows and the in-compartment gas composition.

  14. Development of A Methodology for Assessing Various Accident Management Strategies Using Decision Tree Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Nam Yeong; Kim, Jin Tae; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) analysis is to evaluate operational accidents in full power and low power operation by using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) technologies. The awareness of the importance of ASP analysis has been on rise. The methodology for ASP analysis has been developed in Korea, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has managed KINS-ASP program since it was developed. In this study, we applied ASP analysis into operational accidents in full power and low power operation to quantify CCDP (Conditional Core Damage Probability). To reflect these 2 cases into PRA model, we modified fault trees and event trees of the existing PRA model. Also, we suggest the ASP regulatory system in the conclusion. In this study, we reviewed previous studies for ASP analysis. Based on it, we applied it into operational accidents in full power and low power operation. CCDP of these 2 cases are 1.195E-06 and 2.261E-03. Unlike other countries, there is no regulatory basis of ASP analysis in Korea. ASP analysis could detect the risk by assessing the existing operational accidents. ASP analysis can improve the safety of nuclear power plant by detecting, reviewing the operational accidents, and finally removing potential risk. Operator have to notify regulatory institute of operational accident before operator takes recovery work for the accident. After follow-up accident, they have to check precursors in data base to find similar accident.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Taesung

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

  16. Severe accident recriticality analyses (SARA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frid, W.; Højerup, C.F.; Lindholm, I.

    2001-01-01

    with all three codes. The core initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality-both super-prompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power......Recriticality in a BWR during reflooding of an overheated partly degraded core, i.e. with relocated control rods, has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management strategies......, which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal g(-1), was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding rate of 2000 kg s(-1). In most cases, however, the predicted energy deposition was smaller, below...

  17. Thermophysical properties of liquid UO2, ZrO2 and corium by molecular dynamics and predictive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woong Kee; Shim, Ji Hoon; Kaviany Massoud

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of such accidents (fate of the melt), requires accurate corium thermophysical properties data up to 5000 K. In addition, the initial corium melt superheat melt, determined from such properties, are key in predicting the fuel-coolant interactions (FCIs) and convection and retention of corium in accident scenarios, e.g., core-melt down corium discharge from reactor pressure vessels and spreading in external core-catcher. Due to the high temperatures, data on molten corium and its constituents are limited, so there are much data scatters and mostly extrapolations (even from solid state) have been used. Here we predict the thermophysical properties of molten UO 2 and ZrO 2 using classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (properties of corium are predicted using the mixture theories and UO 2 and ZrO 2 properties). The thermophysical properties (density, compressibility, heat capacity, viscosity and surface tension) of liquid UO 2 and ZrO 2 are predicted using classical molecular dynamics simulations, up to 5000 K. For atomic interactions, the CRG and the Teter potential models are found most appropriate. The liquid behavior is verified with the random motion of the constituent atoms and the pair-distribution functions, starting with the solid phase and raising the temperature to realize liquid phase. The viscosity and thermal conductivity are calculated with the Green-Kubo autocorrelation decay formulae and compared with the predictive models of Andrade and Bridgman. For liquid UO 2 , the CRG model gives satisfactory MD predictions. For ZrO 2 , the density is reliably predicted with the CRG potential model, while the compressibility and viscosity are more accurately predicted by the Teter model

  18. Model to predict the radiological consequences of transportation of radioactive material through an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.; DuCharme, A.R.; Finley, N.N.

    1977-01-01

    A model has been developed which predicts the radiological consequences of the transportation of radioactive material in and around urban environments. This discussion of the model includes discussion of the following general topics: health effects from radiation exposure, urban area characterization, computation of dose resulting from normal transportation, computation of dose resulting from vehicular accidents or sabotage, and preliminary results and conclusions

  19. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C; Johnson, J.D; Rollstin, J.A; Shiver, A.W; Sprung, J.L

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

  1. Impact of sophisticated fog spray models on accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roblyer, S.P.; Owzarski, P.C.

    1978-01-01

    The N-Reactor confinement system release dose to the public in a postulated accident is reduced by washing the confinement atmosphere with fog sprays. This allows a low pressure release of confinement atmosphere containing fission products through filters and out an elevated stack. The current accident analysis required revision of the CORRAL code and other codes such as CONTEMPT to properly model the N Reactor confinement into a system of multiple fog-sprayed compartments. In revising these codes, more sophisticated models for the fog sprays and iodine plateout were incorporated to remove some of the conservatism of steam condensing rate, fission product washout and iodine plateout than used in previous studies. The CORRAL code, which was used to describe the transport and deposition of airborne fission products in LWR containment systems for the Rasmussen Study, was revised to describe fog spray removal of molecular iodine (I 2 ) and particulates in multiple compartments for sprays having individual characteristics of on-off times, flow rates, fall heights, and drop sizes in changing containment atmospheres. During postulated accidents, the code determined the fission product removal rates internally rather than from input decontamination factors. A discussion is given of how the calculated plateout and washout rates vary with time throughout the analysis. The results of the accident analyses indicated that more credit could be given to fission product washout and plateout. An important finding was that the release of fission products to the atmosphere and adsorption of fission products on the filters were significantly lower than previous studies had indicated

  2. AN EFFECTIVE RISK-PREVENTIVE MODEL PROPOSAL FOR OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT SHIPYARDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozge Acuner

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to the statistics of occupational accidents, it is observed that the number of accidents occurred in shipbuilding industry is high and the rate of deaths and serious injuries among these accidents is higher than in other industries. However, the number of the studies to prevent these accidents in both industrial and scientific practices is considerably low. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an efficient risk preventive model in accordance with occupational health and safety regulations for industrial organizations. The approach proposed in this study differs from those described in the literature, because it is based on fuzzy set theory in order to cope with uncertainties on probability and severity definitions in terms of occupational health and safety. Furthermore, in this paper, risk severity is considered in terms of harm to worker, harm to environment, and harm to hardware, whereas in the literature, risk severity is generally considered solely in terms of only harm to worker. Then, risk magnitude is obtained by utilizing fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is applied to a shipyard located in the Marmara Region in order to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  3. A Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Siphon Breaking Phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Youngmin; Kim, Young-In; Seo, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Keung Koo; Yoon, Juhyeon

    2014-01-01

    A siphon phenomenon or siphoning often refers to the movement of liquid from a higher elevation to a lower one through a tube in an inverted U shape (whose top is typically located above the liquid surface) under the action of gravity, and has been used in a variety of reallife applications such as a toilet bowl and a Greedy cup. However, liquid drainage due to siphoning sometimes needs to be prevented. For example, a siphon breaker, which is designed to limit the siphon effect by allowing the gas entrainment into a siphon line, is installed in order to maintain the pool water level above the reactor core when a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) occurs in an open-pool type research reactor. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon. In this paper, a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon is developed. It is shown that the present model predicts well the fundamental features of the siphon breaking phenomenon and undershooting height

  4. A Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Siphon Breaking Phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Youngmin; Kim, Young-In; Seo, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Keung Koo; Yoon, Juhyeon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    A siphon phenomenon or siphoning often refers to the movement of liquid from a higher elevation to a lower one through a tube in an inverted U shape (whose top is typically located above the liquid surface) under the action of gravity, and has been used in a variety of reallife applications such as a toilet bowl and a Greedy cup. However, liquid drainage due to siphoning sometimes needs to be prevented. For example, a siphon breaker, which is designed to limit the siphon effect by allowing the gas entrainment into a siphon line, is installed in order to maintain the pool water level above the reactor core when a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) occurs in an open-pool type research reactor. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon. In this paper, a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon is developed. It is shown that the present model predicts well the fundamental features of the siphon breaking phenomenon and undershooting height.

  5. A novel machine learning model to predict abnormal Runway Occupancy Times and observe related precursors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrema, Herrema Floris; Treve, V; Desart, B; Curran, R.; Visser, H.G.

    2017-01-01

    Accidents on the runway triggered the development and implementation of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and predict risk percursors and to mitigate risks before accidents occur. For certain predictions Machine

  6. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.; Kalimullah; Hill, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    The SAS4A code system has been designed for the analysis of the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modelong the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel relocation are emphasized. 12 refs

  7. An analytical method to assess the damage and predict the residual strength of a ship in a shoal grounding accident scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun Bin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a simplified analytical method used to predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship hull after a shoal grounding accident is proposed. Shoal grounding accidents always lead to severe denting, though not tearing, of the ship bottom structure, which may threaten the global hull girder resistance and result in even worse consequences, such as hull collapse. Here, the degree of damage of the bottom structure is predicted by a series of analytical methods based on the plastic-elastic deformation mechanism. The energy dissipation of a ship bottom structure is obtained from individual components to determine the sliding distance of the seabed obstruction. Then, a new approach to assess the residual strength of the damaged ship subjected to shoal grounding is proposed based on the improved Smith's method. This analytical method is verified by comparing the results of the proposed method and those generated by numerical simulation using the software ABAQUS. The proposed analytical method can be used to assess the safety of a ship with a double bottom during its design phase and predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship after a shoal grounding accident occurs.

  8. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  9. Simulation of small break loss of coolant accident using relap 5/ MOD 2 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Megahed, M.M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of relap 5 / MOD 2/Cycle 36.05 best estimate computer code capabilities in predicting the thermohydraulic response of a PWR following a small break loss of coolant accident is presented. The experimental data base for the evaluation is the results of Test S-N H-3 performed in the semi scale MOD-2 c Test facility which modeled a 0.5% small break loss of coolant accident with an accompanying failure of the high pressure injection emergency core cooling system. A conclusion was reached that the code is capable of making small break loss of coolant accident calculations efficiently. However, some of the small break loss of coolant accident related phenomena were not properly predicted by the code, suggesting a need for code improvement.9 fig., 3 tab

  10. Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.

    1986-01-01

    Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented

  11. [Guilty victims: a model to perpetuate impunity for work-related accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia; Iguti, Aparecida Mari; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz

    2004-01-01

    This article analyzes reports and data from the investigation of severe and fatal work-related accidents by the Regional Institute of Criminology in Piracicaba, São Paulo State, Brazil. Some 71 accident investigation reports were analyzed from 1998, 1999, and 2000. Accidents involving machinery represented 38.0% of the total, followed by high falls (15.5%), and electric shocks (11.3%). The reports conclude that 80.0% of the accidents are caused by "unsafe acts" committed by workers themselves, while the lack of safety or "unsafe conditions" account for only 15.5% of cases. Victims are blamed even in situations involving high risk in which not even minimum safety conditions are adopted, thus favoring employers' interests. Such conclusions reflect traditional reductionist explanatory models, in which accidents are viewed as simple, unicausal phenomena, generally focused on slipups and errors by the workers themselves. Despite criticism in recent decades from the technical and academic community, this concept is still hegemonic, thus jeopardizing the development of preventive policies and the improvement of work conditions.

  12. Prediction of LOCA Break Size Using CFNN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Back, Ju Hyun; Kim, Dong Yeong; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The NPPs have the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) such as a safety injection system. The ECCS may not function properly in case of the small break size due to a slight change of pressure in the pipe. If the coolant is not supplied by ECCS, the reactor core will melt. Therefore, the meltdown of reactor core have to be prevented by appropriate accident management through the prediction of LOCA break size in advance. This study presents the prediction of LOCA break size using cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN). The CFNN model repeatedly applies FNN modules that are serially connected. The CFNN model is a data-based method that requires data for its development and verification. The data were obtained by numerically simulating severe accident scenarios of the optimized power reactor (OPR1000) using MAAP code, because real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents. The CFNN model has been designed to rapidly predict the LOCA break size in LOCA situations. The CFNN model was trained by using the training data set and checked by using test data set. These data sets were obtained using MAAP code for OPR1000 reactor. The performance results of the CFNN model show that the RMS error decreases as the stage number of the CFNN model increases. In addition, the performance result of the CFNN model presents that the RMS error level is below 4%.

  13. TIRE MODELS USED IN VEHICLE DYNAMIC APPLICATIONS AND THEIR USING IN VEHICLE ACCIDENT SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman ELDOĞAN

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Wheel model is very important in vehicle modelling, it is because the contact between vehicle and road is achieved by wheel. Vehicle models can be dynamic models which are used in vehicle design, they can also be models used in accident simulations. Because of the importance of subject, many studies including theoretical, experimental and mixed type have been carried out. In this study, information is given about development of wheel modelling and research studies and also use of these modellings in traffic accident simulations.

  14. Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

    2018-04-01

    In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  16. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing-season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  17. MELCOR modeling of Fukushima unit 2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevon, Tuomo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2014-12-15

    A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 2 accident was created in order to get a better understanding of the event and to improve severe accident modeling methods. The measured pressure and water level could be reproduced relatively well with the calculation. This required adjusting the RCIC system flow rates and containment leak area so that a good match to the measurements is achieved. Modeling of gradual flooding of the torus room with water that originated from the tsunami was necessary for a satisfactory reproduction of the measured containment pressure. The reactor lower head did not fail in this calculation, and all the fuel remained in the RPV. 13 % of the fuel was relocated from the core area, and all the fuel rods lost their integrity, releasing at least some volatile radionuclides. According to the calculation, about 90 % of noble gas inventory and about 0.08 % of cesium inventory was released to the environment. The release started 78 h after the earthquake, and a second release peak came at 90 h. Uncertainties in the calculation are very large because there is scarce public data available about the Fukushima power plant and because it is not yet possible to inspect the status of the reactor and the containment. Uncertainty in the calculated cesium release is larger than factor of ten.

  18. Severe accident training simulator APROS SA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raiko, Eerikki; Salminen, Kai; Lundstroem, Petra; Harti, Mika; Routamo, Tomi

    2003-01-01

    APROS SA is a severe accident training simulator based on the APROS simulation environment. APROS SA has been developed in Fortum Nuclear Services Ltd to serve as a training tool for the personnel of the Loviisa NPP. Training with APROS SA gives the personnel a deeper understanding of the severe accident phenomena and thus it is an important part of the implementation of the severe accident management strategy. APROS SA consists of two parts, a comprehensive Loviisa plant model and an external severe accident model. The external model is an extension to the Loviisa plant model, which allows the simulation to proceed into the severe accident phase. The severe accident model has three submodels: the core melting and relocation model, corium pool model and fission product model. In addition to these, a new thermal-hydraulic solver is introduced to the core region of the Loviisa plant model to replace the more limited APROS thermal-hydraulic solver. The full APROS SA training simulator has a graphical user interface with visualizations of both severe accident management panels at the operator room and the important physical phenomena during the accident. This paper describes the background of the APROS SA training simulator, the severe accident submodels and the graphical user interface. A short description how APROS SA will be used as a training tool at the Loviisa NPP is also given

  19. Modeling of in-vessel fission product release including fuel morphology effects for severe accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, K.Y.

    1989-10-01

    A new in-vessel fission product release model has been developed and implemented to perform best-estimate calculations of realistic source terms including fuel morphology effects. The proposed bulk mass transfer correlation determines the product of fission product release and equiaxed grain size as a function of the inverse fuel temperature. The model accounts for the fuel-cladding interaction over the temperature range between 770 K and 3000 K in the steam environment. A separate driver has been developed for the in-vessel thermal hydraulic and fission product behavior models that were developed by the Department of Energy for the Modular Accident Analysis Package (MAAP). Calculational results of these models have been compared to the results of the Power Burst Facility Severe Fuel Damage tests. The code predictions utilizing the mass transfer correlation agreed with the experimentally determined fractional release rates during the course of the heatup, power hold, and cooldown phases of the high temperature transients. Compared to such conventional literature correlations as the steam oxidation model and the NUREG-0956 correlation, the mass transfer correlation resulted in lower and less rapid releases in closer agreement with the on-line and grab sample data from the Severe Fuel Damage tests. The proposed mass transfer correlation can be applied for best-estimate calculations of fission products release from the UO 2 fuel in both nominal and severe accident conditions. 15 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  20. SAMEX: A severe accident management support expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il

    2010-01-01

    A decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant is being developed which is aided by a severe accident risk database module and a severe accident management simulation module. The severe accident management support expert (SAMEX) system can provide the various types of diagnostic and predictive assistance based on the real-time plant specific safety parameters. It consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) severe accident risk data base module (SARDB), (b) risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD), (c) severe accident management simulation module (SAMS), and (d) on-line severe accident management guidance module (on-line SAMG). The modules are integrated into a code package that executes within a WINDOWS XP operating environment, using extensive user friendly graphics control. In Korea, the integrated approach of the decision support system is being carried out under the nuclear R and D program planned by the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST). An objective of the project is to develop the support system which can show a theoretical possibility. If the system is feasible, the project team will recommend the radiation protection technical support center of a national regulatory body to implement a plant specific system, which is applicable to a real accident, for the purpose of immediate and various diagnosis based on the given plant status information and of prediction of an expected accident progression under a severe accident situation.

  1. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Experience with COSYMA in an international intercomparison of probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasemann, I.; Jones, J.A.; Steen, J. van der; Wonderen, E. van

    1996-01-01

    The Commission of the European Communities and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD have organized an international exercise to compare the predictions of accident consequence assessment codes, and to identify those features of the models which lead to differences in the predicted results. Alongside this, a further exercise was undertaken in which the COSYMA code was used independently by several different organizations. Some of the findings of the COSYMA users' exercise are described that have general applications to accident consequence assessments. A number of areas are identified in which further work on accident consequence models may be justified. These areas, which are also of interest for codes other than COSYMA, are (a) the calculation and averaging of doses and risks to people sheltered in different types of buildings, particularly with respect to the evaluation of early health effects; (b) the modeling of long-duration releases and their description as a series of shorter releases; (c) meteorological sampling for results at a certain location, specifically for use with trajectory models of atmospheric dispersion; and (d) aspects of calculating probabilities of consequences at a point

  3. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  4. Dose calculation for atmospheric releases from a nuclear accident using RAMS/HYPACT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Junji; Tomita, Kenichi; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the investigation of uncertainties in the structure of the atmospheric dispersion/deposition model used in the probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, OSCAAR. To investigate these uncertainties, we have introduced the more sophisticated computer codes, RAMS and HYPACT, which were widely used in the research field of atmospheric phenomena. In this work, the capabilities of the HYPACT model were extended for use in accident consequence assessments. The preliminary comparison between the predictions by OSCAAR and those by RAMS/HYPACT were conducted for both individual and collective consequences in terms of probabilistic results. (author)

  5. Utilization of dose assessment models to facilitate off-site recovery operations for accidents at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, M.H.; Foster, K.T.

    1989-09-01

    One of the most important uses of dose assessment models in response to accidents at nuclear facilities is to help provide guidance to emergency response managers for identifying, and mitigating, the consequences of an accident once the accident has been terminated. By combining results from assessment models with radiological measurements, a qualitative methodology can be developed to aid emergency response managers in determining the total dose received by the population and to minimize future doses through the use of mitigation procedures. To illustrate the methodology, this discussion focuses on the use of models to estimate the dose delivered to the public both during and after a nuclear accident. 4 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  6. Development of simplified 1D and 2D models for studying a PWR lower head failure under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koundy, V.; Dupas, J.; Bonneville, H.; Cormeau, I.

    2005-01-01

    , a graph representing the time to failure as a function of the pressure level and the heat flux intensity has been determined; such information will be used in our probabilistic safety assessment and severe accident management analyses. Another motivation for the development of simplified models in IRSN is to obtain a simplified but well-predicting code that can then be integrated into integral severe accident computer codes. (authors)

  7. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  8. [Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

  9. Severe accident modeling and offsite dose consequence evaluations for nuclear power plant emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, S.H.; Feng, T.S.; Huang, K.C. [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Wang, J.R. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Research, Longtan, Taiwan (China); Cheng, Y.H. [Industrial Tech. Res. Inst., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Shih, C., E-mail: ckshih@ess.nthu.edu.tw [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2011-07-01

    We have investigated the roles of Firewater Addition System and Passive Flooder in ABWR severe accidents, such as LOCA and SBO. The results are apparent that Firewater System is vital in the highly unlikely situation where all AC are lost. Also in this paper, we present EPZDose, an effective and faster-than-real time code for offsite dose consequences predictions and evaluations. Illustrations with the release from our severe accident scenario show friendly and informative user's interface for supporting decision makings in nuclear emergency situations. (author)

  10. Experimental verification of dynamic radioecological models established after the Chernobyl reactor accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, G.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.; Stocke, H.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    The experiments reported were carried out for a verification of existing, dynamic radioecological models, especially of the ECOSYS model. The database used for the verification covers the radioactivity concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137, I-131 measured after the Chernobyl reactor accident in foodstuffs and environmental samples, the results of field experiments on radionuclide translocation after foliar uptake or absorption by the roots of edible plants. The measured data were compared with the model predictions for the radionuclides under review. The Cs-134 and Cs-137 translocation factors which describe the redistribution of these radionuclides in the plant after foliar uptake were experimentally determined by a single sprinkling with Chernobyl rainwater, and were measured to be the following as a function of sprinkling time: winter wheat, 0.002-0.13; spring wheat, 0.003-0.09; winter rye, 0.002-0.27; barley, 0.002-0.04; potatoes, 0.05-0.35; carrots, 0.02-0.07; bush beans, 0.04-0.3; cabbage, 0.1-0.5. The weathering half-life of the radionuclides in lettuce was determined to be ten days. Transfer factors determined for root absorption of Cs-137 were measured to be an average of 0.002 for grains, 0.002 for potatoes, 0.004 for white cabbage, 0.003 for bush beans and carrots, and 0.007 for lettuce. There was an agreement between the ECOSYS model predictions and the measured radioactivity concentrations of the corresponding radionuclides. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Identification of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents in LWRs by Inverse Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cholewa, Wojciech; Frid, Wiktor; Bednarski, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a novel diagnostic method based on inverse models that could be applied to identification of transients and accidents in nuclear power plants. In particular, it is shown that such models could be successfully applied to identification of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). This is demonstrated for LOCA scenarios for a boiling water reactor. Two classes of inverse models are discussed: local models valid only in a selected neighborhood of an unknown element in the data set, representing a state of a considered object, and global models, in the form of partially unilateral models, valid over the whole learning data set. An interesting and useful property of local inverse models is that they can be considered as example-based models, i.e., models that are spanned on particular sets of pattern data. It is concluded that the optimal diagnostic method should combine the advantages of both models, i.e., the high quality of results obtained from a local inverse model and the information about the confidence interval for the expected output provided by a partially unilateral model

  12. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  13. Model description and evaluation of model performance, scenario S. Multiple pathways assessment of the IAEA/CEC co-ordinated research programme on validation of environmental model predictions (VAMP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suolanen, V.

    1996-12-01

    A modelling approach was used to predict doses from a large area deposition of 137 Cs over southern and central Finland. The assumed deposition profile and quantity were both similar to those resulting from the Chernobyl accident. In the study, doses via terrestrial and aquatic environments have been analyzed. Additionally, the intermediate results of the study, such as concentrations in various foodstuffs and the resulting body burdents, were presented. The contributions of ingestion, inhalation and external doses to the total dose were estimated in the study. The considered deposition scenario formed a modelling exercise in the IAEA coordinated research programme on Validation of Environmental Model Predictions, the VAMP project. (21 refs.)

  14. Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hale, A.R.; Ale, B.J.M.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Heijer, T.; Bellamy, L.J; Mud, M.L.; Roelen, A.; Baksteen, H.; Post, J.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bloemhoff, A.; Oh, J.I.H.

    2007-01-01

    The Workgroup Occupational Risk Model (WORM) project in the Netherlands is developing a comprehensive set of scenarios to cover the full range of occupational accidents. The objective is to support companies in their risk analysis and prioritization of prevention. This paper describes how the modeling has developed through projects in the chemical industry, to this one in general industry and how this is planned to develop further in the future to model risk prevention in air transport. The core modeling technique is based on the bowtie, with addition of more explicit modeling of the barriers needed for risk control, the tasks needed to ensure provision, use, monitoring and maintenance of the barriers, and the management resources and tasks required to ensure that these barrier life cycle tasks are carried out effectively. The modeling is moving from a static notion of barriers which can fail, to seeing risk control dynamically as (fallible) means for staying within a safe envelope. The paper shows how concepts develop slowly over a series of projects as a core team works continuously together. It concludes with some results of the WORM project and some indications of how the modeling is raising fundamental questions about the conceptualization of system safety, which need future resolution

  15. Model for predicting the frequency of broken rails

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vesković

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Broken rails can cause train delays, trains cancelations and, unfortunately, they are common causes of accidents. This affects planning of a resources, budget and organization of railway track maintenance. Planning of railway track maintenance cannot be done without an estimation of number of rails that will be replaced due to the broken rail incidents. There are many factors that influence broken rails and the most common are: rail age, annual gross tonnage, degree of curve and temperature in the time of breakage. The fuzzy logic model uses acquired data as input variables to predict the frequency of broken rails for the certain rail types on some Sections.

  16. Investigations of postulated accident sequences for the Fort St. Vrain HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, S.J.; Cleveland, J.C.; Conklin, J.C.; Hatta, M.; Sanders, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    The systems analysis capability of the ORNL HTGR Safety analysis research program includes a family of computer codes: an overall plant NSSS simulation (ORTAP), and detailed component codes for investigating core neutronic accidents (CORTAP), shutdown emergency-cooling accidents via a 3-dimensional core model (ORECA), and once-through steam generator transients (BLAST). The component codes can either be run independently or in the overall NSSS code. Verification efforts have consisted primarily of using existing Fort St. Vrain reactor dynamics data to compare against code predictions. Comparisons of core thermal conditions made for reactor scrams from power levels between 30 and 50% showed good agreement. An optimization program was used to rationalize the difference between the predicted and measured refueling region outlet temperatures, and, in general, excellent agreement was attained by adjustment of models and parameters within their uncertainty ranges. However, more work is required to establish a unique and valid set of models

  17. Sensitivity analysis for CORSOR models simulating fission product release in LOFT-LP-FP-2 severe accident experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Sahand Univ. of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    This paper deals with simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LP-FP-2 experiment of LOFT test facility. The test facility simulates the major components and system response of a pressurized water reactor during a LOCA. MELCOR code is used for predicting the fission product release from the core fuel elements in LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for different CORSOR models simulating release of fission products in severe accident calculations for nuclear power plants. The calculated values for the fission product release are compared under different modeling options to the experimental data available from the experiment. In conclusion, the performance of 8 CORSOR modeling options is assessed for available modeling alternatives in the code structure.

  18. The accident consequence model of the German safety study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebschmann, W.

    1977-01-01

    The accident consequence model essentially describes a) the diffusion in the atmosphere and deposition on the soil of radioactive material released from the reactor into the atmosphere; b) the irradiation exposure and health consequences of persons affected. It is used to calculate c) the number of persons suffering from acute or late damage, taking into account possible counteractions such as relocation or evacuation, and d) the total risk to the population from the various types of accident. The model, the underlying parameters and assumptions are described. The bone marrow dose distribution is shown for the case of late overpressure containment failure, which is discussed in the paper of Heuser/Kotthoff, combined with four typical weather conditions. The probability distribution functions for acute mortality, late incidence of cancer and genetic damage are evaluated, assuming a characteristic population distribution. The aim of these calculations is first the presentation of some results of the consequence model as an example, in second the identification of problems, which need possibly in a second phase of study to be evaluated in more detail. (orig.) [de

  19. Severe accident recriticality analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. E-mail: wiktor.frid@ski.se; Hoejerup, F.; Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Nilsson, L.; Puska, E.K.; Sjoevall, H

    2001-11-01

    quasi steady-state power following initial power excursion was in most cases approximately 20% of the nominal reactor power, according to SIMULATE-3K and APROS. However, in some RECRIT cases higher power levels, approaching 50% of the nominal power, were predicted leading to fuel temperatures exceeding the melting point, as a result of insufficient cooling of the fuel. Long-term containment response to recriticality was assessed through MELCOR calculations for the Olkiluoto 1 plant. At a stabilised reactor power of 19% of nominal power, the containment failure due to overpressurisation was predicted to occur 1.3 h after recriticality, if the accident is not mitigated. The SARA studies have clearly shown the sensitivity of recriticality phenomena to thermal-hydraulic modelling, the specifics of accident scenario, such as distribution of boron-carbide, and importance of multi-dimensional kinetics for determination of local power distribution in the core. The results of the project have pointed out the importance of adequate accident management strategies to be used by reactor operators and emergency staff during recovery actions. Recommendations in this area are given in the paper.

  20. Severe accident recriticality analyses (SARA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frid, W.; Hoejerup, F.; Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Nilsson, L.; Puska, E.K.; Sjoevall, H.

    2001-01-01

    -state power following initial power excursion was in most cases approximately 20% of the nominal reactor power, according to SIMULATE-3K and APROS. However, in some RECRIT cases higher power levels, approaching 50% of the nominal power, were predicted leading to fuel temperatures exceeding the melting point, as a result of insufficient cooling of the fuel. Long-term containment response to recriticality was assessed through MELCOR calculations for the Olkiluoto 1 plant. At a stabilised reactor power of 19% of nominal power, the containment failure due to overpressurisation was predicted to occur 1.3 h after recriticality, if the accident is not mitigated. The SARA studies have clearly shown the sensitivity of recriticality phenomena to thermal-hydraulic modelling, the specifics of accident scenario, such as distribution of boron-carbide, and importance of multi-dimensional kinetics for determination of local power distribution in the core. The results of the project have pointed out the importance of adequate accident management strategies to be used by reactor operators and emergency staff during recovery actions. Recommendations in this area are given in the paper

  1. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies

  2. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  3. Thermophysical properties of liquid UO{sub 2}, ZrO{sub 2} and corium by molecular dynamics and predictive models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woong Kee; Shim, Ji Hoon [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of); Kaviany Massoud [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (United States)

    2016-10-15

    The analysis of such accidents (fate of the melt), requires accurate corium thermophysical properties data up to 5000 K. In addition, the initial corium melt superheat melt, determined from such properties, are key in predicting the fuel-coolant interactions (FCIs) and convection and retention of corium in accident scenarios, e.g., core-melt down corium discharge from reactor pressure vessels and spreading in external core-catcher. Due to the high temperatures, data on molten corium and its constituents are limited, so there are much data scatters and mostly extrapolations (even from solid state) have been used. Here we predict the thermophysical properties of molten UO{sub 2} and ZrO{sub 2} using classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (properties of corium are predicted using the mixture theories and UO{sub 2} and ZrO{sub 2} properties). The thermophysical properties (density, compressibility, heat capacity, viscosity and surface tension) of liquid UO{sub 2} and ZrO{sub 2} are predicted using classical molecular dynamics simulations, up to 5000 K. For atomic interactions, the CRG and the Teter potential models are found most appropriate. The liquid behavior is verified with the random motion of the constituent atoms and the pair-distribution functions, starting with the solid phase and raising the temperature to realize liquid phase. The viscosity and thermal conductivity are calculated with the Green-Kubo autocorrelation decay formulae and compared with the predictive models of Andrade and Bridgman. For liquid UO{sub 2}, the CRG model gives satisfactory MD predictions. For ZrO{sub 2}, the density is reliably predicted with the CRG potential model, while the compressibility and viscosity are more accurately predicted by the Teter model.

  4. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  5. Improving aircraft accident forecasting for an integrated plutonium storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rock, J.C.; Kiffe, J.; McNerney, M.T.; Turen, T.A.

    1998-06-01

    Aircraft accidents pose a quantifiable threat to facilities used to store and process surplus weapon-grade plutonium. The Department of Energy (DOE) recently published its first aircraft accident analysis guidelines: Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities. This document establishes a hierarchy of procedures for estimating the small annual frequency for aircraft accidents that impact Pantex facilities and the even smaller frequency of hazardous material released to the environment. The standard establishes a screening threshold of 10 -6 impacts per year; if the initial estimate of impact frequency for a facility is below this level, no further analysis is required. The Pantex Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) calculates the aircraft impact frequency to be above this screening level. The DOE Standard encourages more detailed analyses in such cases. This report presents three refinements, namely, removing retired small military aircraft from the accident rate database, correcting the conversion factor from military accident rates (accidents per 100,000 hours) to the rates used in the DOE model (accidents per flight phase), and adjusting the conditional probability of impact for general aviation to more accurately reflect pilot training and local conditions. This report documents a halving of the predicted frequency of an aircraft impact at Pantex and points toward further reductions

  6. The expert assistant in accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goddard, A.J.H.; Cannell, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    In the event of a nuclear accident in proximity to an urban area, the consequences resulting from the complex processes of environmental transport of radioactivity would require complex countermeasures. Emphasis has been placed on either modelling the potential effects of such an event on the population, or on attempting to predict the geographical evolution of the release. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of accident management aids with a in-built data acquisition capability. Given the problems of predicting the evolution of an accidental release of activity, more emphasis should be placed on the development of small regional systems specifically engineered to acquire and display environmental data in the most efficaceous form possible. A wealth of information can be obtained from appropriately-sited outstations which can aid those responsible for countermeasures in their decision making processes. The substantial volume of data which would arrive within the duration and during the aftermath of an accident requires skilled interpretation under conditions of considerable stress. It is necessary that a management aid notonly presents these data in a rapidly assimilable form, but is capable of making intelligent decisions of its own, on such matters as information display priority and the polling frequency of outstations. The requirement is for an expert assistant. The XERSES accident management aid has been designed with the foregoing features in mind. Intended for covering regions up to approximately 100 kms square, it links with between 1 and 64 outstations supplying a variety of environmental data. Under quiescent conditions the system will operate unattended, raising alarms remotely only when detecting abnormal conditions. Under emergency conditions, the system automatically adjusts such operating parameters as data acquisition rate

  7. An improved model to predict nonuniform deformation of Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei, Q.M.; Fan, H.Z.

    1997-01-01

    Present circular pressure-tube ballooning models in most fuel channel codes assume that the pressure tube remains circular during ballooning. This model provides adequate predictions of pressure-tube ballooning behaviour when the pressure tube (PT) and the calandria tube (CT) are concentric and when a small (<100 degrees C) top-to-bottom circumferential temperature gradient is present on the pressure tube. However, nonconcentric ballooning is expected to occur under certain postulated CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) accident conditions. This circular geometry assumption prevents the model from accurately predicting nonuniform pressure-tube straining and local PT/CT contact when the pressure tube is subjected to a large circumferential temperature gradient and consequently deforms in a noncircular pattern. This paper describes an improved model that predicts noncircular pressure-tube deformation. Use of this model (once fully validated) will reduce uncertainties in the prediction of pressure-tube ballooning during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) in a CANDU reactor. The noncircular deformation model considers a ring or cross-section of a pressure tube with unit axial length to calculate deformation in the radial and circumferential directions. The model keeps track of the thinning of the pressure-tube wall as well as the shape deviation from a reference circle. Such deviation is expressed in a cosine Fourier series for the lateral symmetry case. The coefficients of the series for the first m terms are calculated by solving a set of algebraic equations at each time step. The model also takes into account the effects of pressure-tube sag or bow on ballooning, using an input value of the offset distance between the centre of the calandria tube and the initial centre of the pressure tube for determining the position radius of the pressure tube. One significant improvement realized in using the noncircular deformation model is a more accurate prediction in

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season

  9. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  10. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Silver-indium-cadmium control rod behavior and aerosol formation in severe reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petti, D.A.

    1987-04-01

    Silver-indium-cadmium (Ag-In-Cd) control rod behavior and aerosol formation in severe reactor accidents are examined in an attempt to improve the methodology used to estimate reactor accident source terms. Control rod behavior in both in-pile and out-of-pile experiments is reviewed. A mechanistic model named VAPOR is developed that calculates the downward relocation and simultaneous vaporization behavior of the Ag-In-Cd alloy expected after control rod failure in a severe reactor accident. VAPOR is used to predict the release of silver, indium, and cadmium vapors expected in the Power Burst Facility (PBF) Severe Fuel Damage (SFD) 1-4 experiment. In addition, a sensitivity study is performed. Although cadmium is found to be the most volatile constituent of the alloy, all of the calculations predict that the rapid relocation of the alloy down to cooler portions of the core results in a small release for all three control rod alloy vapors. Potential aerosol formation mechanisms in a severe reactor accident are reviewed. Specifically, models for homogeneous, ion-induced, and heterogeneous nucleation are investigated. These models are applied to silver, cadmium, and CsI to examine the nucleation behavior of these three potential aerosol sources in a severe reactor accident and to illustrate the competition among these mechanisms for vapor depletion. The results indicate that aerosol formation in a severe reactor accident occurs in three stages. In the first stage, ion-induced nucleation causes aerosol generation. During the second stage, ion-induced and heterogeneous nucleation operates as competing pathways for gas-to-particle conversion until sufficient aerosol surface area is generated. In the third stage, ion-induced nucleation ceases; and heterogeneous nucleation becomes the dominant mechanism of gas-to-particle conversion until equilibrium is reached

  12. RaCon: a software tool serving to predict radiological consequences of various types of accident in support of emergency management and radiation monitoring management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svanda, J.; Hustakova, H.; Fiser, V.

    2008-01-01

    The RaCon software system, developed by the Nuclear Research Institute Rez, is described and its application when addressing various tasks in the domain of radiation accidents and nuclear safety (accidents at nuclear facilities, transport of radioactive material, terrorist attacks) are outlined. RaCon is intended for the prediction and evaluation of radiological consequences to population and rescue teams and for optimization of monitoring actions. The system provides support to emergency management when evaluating and devising actions to mitigate the consequences of radiation accidents. The deployment of RaCon within the system of radiation monitoring by mobile emergency teams or remote controlled UAV is an important application. Based on a prediction of the radiological situation, RaCon facilitates decision-making and control of the radiation monitoring system, and in turn, refines the prediction based on observed values. Furthermore, the system can perform simulations of evacuation patterns at the Dukovany NPP and at schools in the vicinity of the power plant and can provide support to emergency management should any such situation arise. (orig.)

  13. Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirkland, Karen Vierow [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Ross, Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beeny, Bradley [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Luthman, Nicholas [Texas A& M Engineering Experiment Station, College Station, TX (United States); Strater, Zachary [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2017-12-23

    The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that the system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.

  14. The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

  15. Use of bayesian operations for diagnosing accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K.M.; Jae, M.; Suh, K.Y.

    2005-01-01

    In complex systems, it is necessary to model a logical representation of the overall system interaction with respect to the individual subsystems. Operators are allowed to follow EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) when reactor tripped because of accidents. But, it's very difficult to diagnose accidents and find out appropriate procedures to mitigate current accidents in a given short time. Even if they diagnose accidents, it also has possibility to misdiagnose. TMI accident is a good example of operators' errors. Methodology using Influence Diagrams has been developed and applied for representing the dependency behaviors and uncertain behaviors of complex systems. An example to diagnose the accidents such as SLOCA and SGTR with similar symptoms has been introduced. From the constructed model, operators could diagnose accidents at any states of accidents. This model can offer the information about accidents with given symptoms. This model might help operators to diagnose correctly and rapidly. It might be very useful to support operators to reduce human error. Also, from this study, it is applicable to diagnose other accidents with similar symptoms and to analyze causes of reactor trip. (authors)

  16. Modelling the release of volatile fission product cesium from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, W.S.; Lewis, B.J.; Cox, D.S.

    1997-01-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from CANDU fuel under severe accident conditions. The model was based on data for the release Of 134 Cs measured during three annealing experiments (Hot Cell Experiments 1 and 2, or HCE- 1, HCE-2 and Metallurgical Cell Experiment 1, or MCE- 1) at Chalk River Laboratories. These experiments were comprised of a total of 30 separate tests. The ANN established a correlation among 14 separate input variables and predicted the cumulative fractional release for a set of 386 data points drawn from 29 tests to a normalized error, E n , of 0.104 and an average absolute error, E abs , of 0.064. Predictions for a blind validation set (test HCE2-CM6) had an E n of 0.064 and an E abs of 0.054. A methodology is presented for deploying the ANN model by providing the connection weights. Finally, the performance of an ANN model was compared to a fuel oxidation model developed by Lewis et al. and to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's CORSOR-M. (author)

  17. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M.; Medford, G.T.

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied

  18. Fuel models and results from the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS TMI-2 accident calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwegler, E.C.; Maudlin, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    A brief description of several fuel models used in the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS analysis of the TMI-2 accident is presented, and some of the significant fuel-rod behavior results from this analysis are given. Peak fuel-rod temperatures, oxidation heat production, and embrittlement and failure behavior calculated for the TMI-2 accident are discussed. Other aspects of fuel behavior, such as cladding ballooning and fuel-cladding eutectic formation, were found not to significantly affect the accident progression

  19. Severe accidents in nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohai, Dumitru; Dumitrescu, Iulia; Tunaru, Mariana

    2004-01-01

    The likelihood of accidents leading to core meltdown in nuclear reactors is low. The consequences of such an event are but so severe that developing and implementing of adequate measures for preventing or diminishing the consequences of such events are of paramount importance. The analysis of major accidents requires sophisticated computation codes but necessary are also relevant experiments for checking the accuracy of the predictions and capability of these codes. In this paper an overview of the severe accidents worldwide with definitions, computation codes and relating experiments is presented. The experimental research activity of severe accidents was conducted in INR Pitesti since 2003, when the Institute jointed the SARNET Excellence Network. The INR activity within SARNET consists in studying scenarios of severe accidents by means of ASTEC and RELAP/SCDAP codes and conducting bench-scale experiments

  20. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul

    2015-01-01

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree

  1. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree.

  2. Prediction of thermal margin for external cooling of reactor vessel lower head during a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Ho Jun; Suh, Kune Y.

    1998-01-01

    In the TMI-2 accident, approximately nineteen (19) tons of molten core material drained into the lower plenum. One of the major findings from the TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project was that one part of the reactor lower head wall estimated to have attained a temperature of 1100 .deg. C for about 30 minutes has seemingly experienced a comparatively rapid cooldown with no major threat to the vessel integrity. In this regard, recent empirical and analytical studies have shifted interests to such in-vessel retention designs or strategies as reactor cavity flooding, in-vessel flooding and engineered gap cooling of the vessel. Accurate thermohydrodynamic and creep deformation modeling and rupture prediction are the key to the success in developing practically useful in-vessel accident management strategies. As an advanced in-vessel design concept, the COrium Attak Syndrome Immunization Structures (COASIS) are being developed as prospective in-vessel retention devices for a next-generation LWR in concert with existing ex-vessel management measures. Both the engineered gap structures in -vessel (COASISI) and ex-vessel (COASISO) were demonstrated to maintain effective heat transfer geometry during molten core debris attack when applied to the TMI-2 and the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNPP) reactors. The likelihood of lower head creep rupture during a severe accident is found to be significantly suppressed by the COASIS options. In studying the in-vessel severe accident phenomena, one of the main goals is to verify the cooling mechanism in the reactor vessel lower plenum and thereby to prevent the vessel failure from thermal attack by the molten debris. This paper presents the first-principle calculation results for the thermal margin for the case of external cooling of the reactor vessel lower head. Adopting the method presented by F.B. Cheung, et al., we calculated the departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) for the three cases of pool boiling, flow boiling

  3. Identification and evaluation of accident sequences in nuclear power reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amendola, A.; Capobianchi, S.; Mancini, G.; Olivi, L.; Volta, G.; Reina, G.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic analysis techniques are being more and more used for the evaluation of accident progression in nuclear power plants, especially after the issue of the Reactor Safety Study (Report WASH-1400). This study and subsequent discussions have indicated the necessity of better investigating some major items, namely: adequate data base for the probabilistic evaluations; completeness of the analysis with respect both to accident initiation and behaviour; adequate treatment of uncertainties on the physical and operational parameters governing the accident behaviour. Furthermore, recent occurrences have stressed the importance of the operational aspects of reactor safety, such as plant-specific identification of possible occurrences, their prompt recognition, on-line prediction of subsequent developments and actions to be taken. The paper reviews the contributions in progress at JRC-Ispra to all these aspects, and specifically reports on the following: (1) The set-up of a European Reliability Data System for the acquisition and organisation of operational data of LWRs in the European Community. (2) The development of more complete and realistic models of systems. This work includes multistate static models of components and systems with a view to automatic fault-tree construction and dynamic models for accident sequence identification. The dynamic modelling approach ESCS (Event Sequence and Consequences Spectrum), shown in detail with an example, represents a step forward with respect to event-tree technique and opens new possibilities in dealing with human factors and on-line diagnosis problems. (3) The development of RSM (Response Surface Methodology) for the analysis of uncertainty propagations in consequence and in probability of accident chains. (author)

  4. Radiological Consequence Analyses Following a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In order to reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a simulator which is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator) for overseas nuclear accident has been developed. It is composed of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. For the source-term estimation module, the representative reactor types were selected as CPR1000, BWR5 and BWR6 for China, Japan and Taiwan, respectively. Considering the design characteristics of each reactor type, the source-term estimation module simulates the transient of design basis accident and severe accident. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials and prints out the air and ground concentration. Using the concentration result, the dose assessment module calculates effective dose and thyroid dose in the Korean Peninsula region. In this study, a hypothetical severe accident in Japan was simulated to demonstrate the function of NANAS. As a result, the radiological consequence to Korea was estimated from the accident. PC-based nuclear accident simulator, NANAS, has been developed. NANAS contains three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. The source-term estimation module simulates a nuclear accident for the representative reactor types in China, Japan and Taiwan. Since the maximum calculation speed is 16 times than real time, it is possible to estimate the source-term release swiftly in case of the emergency. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials in wide range including the Northeast Asia. Final results of the dose assessment module are a map projection and time chart of effective dose and thyroid dose. A hypothetical accident in Japan was simulated by NANAS. The radioactive materials were released during the first 24 hours and the source

  5. Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

  6. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code main features, current V2.0 modelling status, perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelard, P.; Reinke, N.; Arndt, S.; Belon, S.; Cantrel, L.; Carenini, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Cousin, F.; Eckel, J.; Jacq, F.; Marchetto, C.; Mun, C.; Piar, L.

    2014-01-01

    The severe accident integral code ASTEC, jointly developed since almost 20 years by IRSN and GRS, simulates the behaviour of a whole nuclear power plant under severe accident conditions, including severe accident management by engineering systems and procedures. Since 2004, the ASTEC code is progressively becoming the reference European severe accident integral code through in particular the intensification of research activities carried out in the frame of the SARNET European network of excellence. The first version of the new series ASTEC V2 was released in 2009 to about 30 organizations worldwide and in particular to SARNET partners. With respect to the previous V1 series, this new V2 series includes advanced core degradation models (issued from the ICARE2 IRSN mechanistic code) and necessary extensions to be applicable to Gen. III reactor designs, notably a description of the core catcher component to simulate severe accidents transients applied to the EPR reactor. Besides these two key-evolutions, most of the other physical modules have also been improved and ASTEC V2 is now coupled to the SUNSET statistical tool to make easier the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The ASTEC models are today at the state of the art (in particular fission product models with respect to source term evaluation), except for quenching of a severely damage core. Beyond the need to develop an adequate model for the reflooding of a degraded core, the main other mean-term objectives are to further progress on the on-going extension of the scope of application to BWR and CANDU reactors, to spent fuel pool accidents as well as to accidents in both the ITER Fusion facility and Gen. IV reactors (in priority on sodium-cooled fast reactors) while making ASTEC evolving towards a severe accident simulator constitutes the main long-term objective. This paper presents the status of the ASTEC V2 versions, focussing on the description of V2.0 models for water-cooled nuclear plants

  7. WSPEEDI (worldwide version of SPEEDI): A computer code system for the prediction of radiological impacts on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Moriuchi, Shigeru [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Ishikawa, Hirohiko

    1995-09-01

    A computer code system has been developed for near real-time dose assessment during radiological emergencies. The system WSPEEDI, the worldwide version of SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) aims at predicting the radiological impact on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries. WSPEEDI consists of a mass-consistent wind model WSYNOP for large-scale wind fields and a particle random walk model GEARN for atmospheric dispersion and dry and wet deposition of radioactivity. The models are integrated into a computer code system together with a system control software, worldwide geographic database, meteorological data processor and graphic software. The performance of the models has been evaluated using the Chernobyl case with reliable source terms, well-established meteorological data and a comprehensive monitoring database. Furthermore, the response of the system has been examined by near real-time simulations of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), carried out over about 2,000 km area in Europe. (author).

  8. WSPEEDI (worldwide version of SPEEDI): A computer code system for the prediction of radiological impacts on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Nagai, Haruyasu; Moriuchi, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Hirohiko.

    1995-09-01

    A computer code system has been developed for near real-time dose assessment during radiological emergencies. The system WSPEEDI, the worldwide version of SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) aims at predicting the radiological impact on Japanese due to a nuclear accident in foreign countries. WSPEEDI consists of a mass-consistent wind model WSYNOP for large-scale wind fields and a particle random walk model GEARN for atmospheric dispersion and dry and wet deposition of radioactivity. The models are integrated into a computer code system together with a system control software, worldwide geographic database, meteorological data processor and graphic software. The performance of the models has been evaluated using the Chernobyl case with reliable source terms, well-established meteorological data and a comprehensive monitoring database. Furthermore, the response of the system has been examined by near real-time simulations of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), carried out over about 2,000 km area in Europe. (author)

  9. Prediction of failure of highly irradiated Zircaloy clad tubes under reactivity initiated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jernkvist, L.O.

    2003-01-01

    This paper deals with failure of irradiated Zircaloy tubes under the heat-up stage of a reactivity initiated accident (RIA). More precisely, by use of a model for plastic strain localization and necking failure, we theoretically analyse the effects of local surface defects on clad ductility and survivability under RIA. The results show that even very shallow surface defects, e.g. arising from a non-uniform or partially spilled oxide layer, have a strong limiting effect on clad ductility. Moreover, in presence of surface defects, the ability of the clad tube to expand radially without necking failure is found to be extremely sensitive to the stress biaxiality ratio σ zz /σ θθ , which is here assumed to be in the range from 0 to 1. The results of our analysis are compared with clad ductility data available in literature, and their consequences for clad failure prediction under RIA are discussed. In particular, the results raise serious concerns regarding the applicability of failure criteria, which are based on clad strain energy density. These criteria do not capture the observed sensitivity to stress biaxiality on clad failure propensity. (author)

  10. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  11. Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  12. Modeling requirements for full-scope reactor simulators of fission-product transport during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, P.G.; Monson, P.R.; Mitchell, H.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes in the needs and requirements to properly and efficiently model fission product transport on full scope reactor simulators. Current LWR simulators can be easily adapted to model severe accident phenomena and the transport of radionuclides. Once adapted these simulators can be used as a training tool during operator training exercises for training on severe accident guidelines, for training on containment venting procedures, or as training tool during site wide emergency training exercises

  13. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-01

    This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be ∼ 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the regional

  14. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be approx 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the

  15. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    rate of 2000 kg/s. In most cases, however, the predicted energy deposition was much smaller, below the regulatory limits for fuel failure, but close or above recently observed thresholds for fragmentation and dispersion of high burn-up fuel. The highest calculated quasi steady-state power following initial power excursion was in most cases about 20 % of the nominal reactor power, according to SIMULATE-3K and APROS. RECRIT predictions were in general different in this respect with either oscillating power or power increase approaching 50 % of nominal power which in both cases resulted in fuel temperatures above the melting point as a result of insufficient cooling. Long-term containment response to recriticality was assessed through MELCOR calculations for Olkiluoto 1 plant. At stabilised reactor power of 19 % of nominal power the containment failure due to overpressurization was predicted to occur 1.3 h after recriticality, if the accident is not mitigated. The SARA studies have clearly shown the sensitivity of recriticality phenomena to thermal-hydraulic modelling, the specifics of accident scenario, such as distribution of boron-carbide, and importance of multi-dimensional kinetics for determination of local power distribution in the core. The results of the project have pointed out the importance of adequate accident management procedures to be used by reactor operators and emergency staff during recovery actions. Recommendations in this area are given in the report.

  16. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frid, W.; Hoejerup, F.; Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K.; Nilsson, Lars; Sjoevall, H.

    1999-11-01

    rate of 2000 kg/s. In most cases, however, the predicted energy deposition was much smaller, below the regulatory limits for fuel failure, but close or above recently observed thresholds for fragmentation and dispersion of high burn-up fuel. The highest calculated quasi steady-state power following initial power excursion was in most cases about 20 % of the nominal reactor power, according to SIMULATE-3K and APROS. RECRIT predictions were in general different in this respect with either oscillating power or power increase approaching 50 % of nominal power which in both cases resulted in fuel temperatures above the melting point as a result of insufficient cooling. Long-term containment response to recriticality was assessed through MELCOR calculations for Olkiluoto 1 plant. At stabilised reactor power of 19 % of nominal power the containment failure due to overpressurization was predicted to occur 1.3 h after recriticality, if the accident is not mitigated. The SARA studies have clearly shown the sensitivity of recriticality phenomena to thermal-hydraulic modelling, the specifics of accident scenario, such as distribution of boron-carbide, and importance of multi-dimensional kinetics for determination of local power distribution in the core. The results of the project have pointed out the importance of adequate accident management procedures to be used by reactor operators and emergency staff during recovery actions. Recommendations in this area are given in the report

  17. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bui, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance

  18. Information support for analysing the radiological impact of areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shershakov, V.M.; Baranov, A.Yu.; Borodin, R.V.; Golubenkov, A.V.; Godko, A.M.; Kosykh, V.S.; Korenev, A.I.; Meleshkin, M.A. [SPA `Typhoon`, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-09-01

    The organisation and management of data banks generated using data from monitoring the radiological situation after the Chernobyl accident is of key importance to health care and rehabilitation in the contaminated areas. Measures following the accident were based on large scale studies involving analysis and prediction of radioactive contamination. These studies included measurements of radioactivity in air, soil and water, modelling and prediction of radionuclides transport and transformation. This required the development of a computer system RECASS (RadioEcological Analysis Support System) which is currently being developed in SPA ``Typhoon``. The main tasks of RECASS are to integrate data on existing characteristics of the environment, and data on air, soil, water and biota-contamination with numerical models that account for radionuclide behaviour in all environmental media, and with radiation dose formations that are based on geographic information system (GIS) principles. The data bank of the system includes the following data bases: a data base with measurement of radioactive contamination levels in environmental media (soil, air, water); a meteorological data base; and a data base with administrative and demographic data. A set of models for radionuclide transfer in various environments incorporated in the chain permits short or long-term predictions to be made. The results of implementing RECASS to reconstruct the time and space picture of contamination in the first days after the Chernobyl accident are presented. (Author).

  19. Informatics support for analysing the radiological impact of areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shershakov, V.M.; Baranov, A.Yu.; Borodin, R.V.; Golubenkov, A.V.; Godko, A.M.; Kosykh, V.S.; Korenev, A.I.; Meleshkin, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The organisation and management of data banks generated using data from monitoring the radiological situation after the Chernobyl accident is of key importance to health care and rehabilitation in the contaminated areas. Measures following the accident were based on large scale studies involving analysis and prediction of radioactive contamination. These studies included measurements of radioactivity in air, soil and water, modelling and prediction of radionuclides transport and transformation. This required the development of a computer system RECASS (RadioEcological Analysis Support System) which is currently being developed in SPA ''Typhoon''. The main tasks of RECASS are to integrate data on existing characteristics of the environment, and data on air, soil, water and biota-contamination with numerical models that account for radionuclide behaviour in all environmental media and with radiation dose formations that are based on geographic information system (GIS) principles. The data bank of the system includes the following databases: a data base with measurement of radioactive contamination levels in environmental media (soil, air, water); a meteorological data base; and a data base with administrative and demographic data. A set of models for radionuclide transfer in various environments incorporated in the chain permits short or long-term predictions to be made. The results of implementing RECASS to reconstruct the time and space picture of contamination in the first days after the Chernobyl accident are presented. (Author)

  20. Information support for analysing the radiological impact of areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shershakov, V.M.; Baranov, A.Yu.; Borodin, R.V.; Golubenkov, A.V.; Godko, A.M.; Kosykh, V.S.; Korenev, A.I.; Meleshkin, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The organisation and management of data banks generated using data from monitoring the radiological situation after the Chernobyl accident is of key importance to health care and rehabilitation in the contaminated areas. Measures following the accident were based on large scale studies involving analysis and prediction of radioactive contamination. These studies included measurements of radioactivity in air, soil and water, modelling and prediction of radionuclides transport and transformation. This required the development of a computer system RECASS (RadioEcological Analysis Support System) which is currently being developed in SPA ''Typhoon''. The main tasks of RECASS are to integrate data on existing characteristics of the environment, and data on air, soil, water and biota-contamination with numerical models that account for radionuclide behaviour in all environmental media, and with radiation dose formations that are based on geographic information system (GIS) principles. The data bank of the system includes the following data bases: a data base with measurement of radioactive contamination levels in environmental media (soil, air, water); a meteorological data base; and a data base with administrative and demographic data. A set of models for radionuclide transfer in various environments incorporated in the chain permits short or long-term predictions to be made. The results of implementing RECASS to reconstruct the time and space picture of contamination in the first days after the Chernobyl accident are presented. (Author)

  1. Decision model support of severity of injury traffic accident victims care by SAMU 192

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rackynelly Alves Sarmento Soares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents produce high morbidity and mortality in several countries, including Brazil. The initial care to victims of accidents, by a specialized team, has tools for evaluating the severity of trauma, which guide the priorities. This study aimed to develop a decision model applied to pre-hospital care, using the Abbreviated Injury Scale, to define the severity of the injury caused by the AT, as well to describe the features of accidents and their victims, occurred in Joao Pessoa, Paraiba. This is a descriptive epidemiological investigation, sectional, which analyzed all victims of traffic accidents attended by the SAMU 192, João Pessoa-PB, in January, April and June 2010. Data were collected in the medical regulation sheets of SAMU 192. Most of victims were male (76%, aged between 20 and 39 years (60%. Most injuries were classified as AIS1 (62.5%. The model of decision support implemented was the decision tree that managed to correctly classify 95.98% of the severity of injuries. By this model, it was possible to extract 29 rules of gravity classification of injury, which may be used for decision-making teams of the SAMU 192.

  2. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K. [Lloyd' s Register Consulting AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2013-10-15

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  3. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K.

    2013-10-01

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  4. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-15

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  5. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-01

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  6. Babcock and Wilcox revisions to CONTEMPT, computer program for predicting containment pressure-temperature response to a loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsii, Y.H.

    1976-06-01

    The CONTEMPT computer program predicts the pressure-temperature response of a single-volume reactor building to a loss-of-coolant accident. The report describes the analytical model used for the program. CONTEMPT assumes that the loss-of-coolant accident can be separated into two phases; the primary system blowdown and reactor building pressurization. The results of the blowdown analysis serve as the boundary conditions and are input to the CONTEMPT program. Thus, the containment model is only concerned with the pressure and temperature in the reactor building and the temperature distribution through the reactor building structures. The user is required to input the description of the discharge of coolant, the boiling of residual water by reactor decay heat, the superheating of steam passing through the core, and metal-water reactions. The reactor building is separated into liquid and vapor regions. Each region is in thermal equilibrium itself, but the two may not be in thermal equilibrium; the liquid and gaseous regions may have different temperatures. The reactor building is represented as consisting of several heat-conducting structures whose thermal behavior can be described by the one-dimensional multi-region heat conduction equation. The program also calculates building leakage and the effects of engineered safety features such as reactor building sprays, decay heat coolers, sump coolers, etc

  7. Advanced evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic during an accident in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    Evacuation of people located inside the enclosed area of an LNG terminal is a complex problem, especially considering that accidents involving LNG are potentially very hazardous. In order to create an evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic, extensive influence must be generated from safety analyses. A very important moment in the optimal functioning of an evacuation model is the creation of a database which incorporates all input indicators. The output result is the creation of a safety evacuation route which is active at the moment of the accident. (Author)

  8. Radiological dose assessment for bounding accident scenarios at the Critical Experiment Facility, TA-18, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    A computer modeling code, CRIT8, was written to allow prediction of the radiological doses to workers and members of the public resulting from these postulated maximum-effect accidents. The code accounts for the relationships of the initial parent radionuclide inventory at the time of the accident to the growth of radioactive daughter products, and considers the atmospheric conditions at time of release. The code then calculates a dose at chosen receptor locations for the sum of radionuclides produced as a result of the accident. Both criticality and non-criticality accidents are examined

  9. Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

    2014-10-01

    This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling framework for crew decisions during accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukic, Y.D.; Worledge, D.H.; Hannaman, G.W.; Spurgin, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    The ability to model the average behavior of operating crews in the course of accident sequences is vital in learning on how to prevent damage to power plants and to maintain safety. This paper summarizes the work carried out in support of a Human Reliability Model framework. This work develops the mathematical framework of the model and identifies the parameters which could be measured in some way, e.g., through simulator experience and/or small scale tests. Selected illustrative examples are presented, of the numerical experiments carried out in order to understand the model sensitivity to parameter variation. These examples ar discussed with the objective of deriving insights of general nature regarding operating of the model which may lead to enhanced understanding of man/machine interactions

  11. Preliminary experiment design of graphite dust emission measurement under accident conditions for HTGR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, Wei, E-mail: pengwei@tsinghua.edu.cn [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology Cooperation Innovation Center, The Key Laboratory of Advanced Nuclear Engineering and Safety, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100084 (China); Chen, Tao; Sun, Qi; Wang, Jie [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology Cooperation Innovation Center, The Key Laboratory of Advanced Nuclear Engineering and Safety, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100084 (China); Yu, Suyuan, E-mail: suyuan@tsinghua.edu.cn [Center for Combustion Energy, The Key Laboratory for Thermal Science and Power Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • A theoretical analysis is used to predict the total graphite dust release for an AVR LOCA. • Similarity criteria must be satisfied between the experiment and the actual HTGR system. • Model experiments should be conducted to predict the graphite dust resuspension rate. - Abstract: The graphite dust movement behavior is significant for the safety analyses of high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR). The graphite dust release for accident conditions is an important source term for HTGR safety analyses. Depressurization release tests are not practical in HTGR because of a radioactivity release to the environment. Thus, a theoretical analysis and similarity principles were used to design a group of modeling experiments. Modeling experiments for fan start-up and depressurization process and actual experiments of helium circulator start-up in an HTGR were used to predict the rate of graphite dust resuspension and the graphite dust concentration, which can be used to predict the graphite dust release during accidents. The modeling experiments are easy to realize and the helium circulator start-up test does not harm the reactor system or the environment, so this experiment program is easily achieved. The revised Rock’n’Roll model was then used to calculate the AVR reactor release. The calculation results indicate that the total graphite dust releases during a LOCA will be about 0.65 g in AVR.

  12. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bui, V.A

    1998-10-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance 88 refs, 54 figs, 7 tabs

  13. Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

    2016-09-01

    Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016

  14. Severe accident analysis using MARCH 1.0 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guimaraes, A.C.F.

    1987-09-01

    The description and utilization of the MARCH 1.0 computer code, which aim to analyse physical phenomena associated with core meltdown accidents in PWR type reactors, are presented. The primary system is modeled as a single volume which is partitioned into a gas (steam and hydrogen) region and a water region. March predicts blowdown from the primary system in single phase. Based on results of the probabilistic safety analysis for the Zion and Indian Point Nuclear Power Plants, the S 2 HFX sequence accident for Angra-1 reactor is studied. The S 2 HFX sequence means that the loss of coolant accident occurs through small break in primary system with bot total failures of the reactor safety system and containment in yours recirculation modes, leading the core melt and the containment failure due to overpressurization. The obtained results were considered reasonable if compared with the results obtained for the Zion and Indian Point nuclear power plants. (Author) [pt

  15. Conclusions on severe accident research priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein-Heßling, W.; Sonnenkalb, M.; Jacquemain, D.; Clément, B.; Raimond, E.; Dimmelmeier, H.; Azarian, G.; Ducros, G.; Journeau, C.; Herranz Puebla, L.E.; Schumm, A.; Miassoedov, A.; Kljenak, I.; Pascal, G.; Bechta, S.; Güntay, S.; Koch, M.K.; Ivanov, I.; Auvinen, A.; Lindholm, I.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Estimation of research priorities related to severe accident phenomena. • Consideration of new topics, partly linked to the severe accidents at Fukushima. • Consideration of results of recent projects, e.g. SARNET, ASAMPSA2, OECD projects. - Abstract: The objectives of the SARNET network of excellence are to define and work on common research programs in the field of severe accidents in Gen. II–III nuclear power plants and to further develop common tools and methodologies for safety assessment in this area. In order to ensure that the research conducted on severe accidents is efficient and well-focused, it is necessary to periodically evaluate and rank the priorities of research. This was done at the end of 2008 by the Severe Accident Research Priority (SARP) group at the end of the SARNET project of the 6th Framework Programme of European Commission (FP6). This group has updated this work in the FP7 SARNET2 project by accounting for the recent experimental results, the remaining safety issues as e.g. highlighted by Level 2 PSA national studies and the results of the recent ASAMPSA2 FP7 project. These evaluation activities were conducted in close relation with the work performed under the auspices of international organizations like OECD or IAEA. The Fukushima-Daiichi severe accidents, which occurred while SARNET2 was running, had some effects on the prioritization and definition of new research topics. Although significant progress has been gained and simulation models (e.g. the ASTEC integral code, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS) were improved, leading to an increased confidence in the predictive capabilities for assessing the success potential of countermeasures and/or mitigation measures, most of the selected research topics in 2008 are still of high priority. But the Fukushima-Daiichi accidents underlined that research efforts had to focus still more to improve severe accident management efficiency

  16. Modeling of criticality accidents and their environmental consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, W.; Gmal, B.

    1987-01-01

    In the Federal Republic of Germany, potential radiological consequences of accidental nuclear criticality have to be evaluated in the licensing procedure for fuel cycle facilities. A prerequisite to this evaluation is to establish conceivable accident scenarios. First, possibilities for a criticality exceeding the generally applied double contingency principle of safety are identified by screening the equipment and operation of the facility. Identification of undetected accumulations of fissile material or incorrect transfer of fissile solution to unfavorable geometry normally are most important. Second, relevant and credible scenarios causing the most severe consequences are derived from these possibilities. For the identified relevant scenarios, time-dependent fission rates and reasonable numbers for peak power and total fissions must be determined. Experience from real accidents and experiments (KEWB, SPERT, CRAC, SILENE) has been evaluated using empirical formulas. To model the time-dependent behavior of criticality excursions in fissile solutions, a computer program FELIX has been developed

  17. Development of Parameter Network for Accident Management Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pak, Sukyoung; Ahemd, Rizwan; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Taek; Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    When a severe accident happens, it is hard to obtain the necessary information to understand of internal status because of the failure or damage of instrumentation and control systems. We learned the lessons from Fukushima accident that internal instrumentation system should be secured and must have ability to react in serious conditions. While there might be a number of methods to reinforce the integrity of instrumentation systems, we focused on the use of redundant behavior of plant parameters without additional hardware installation. Specifically, the objective of this study is to estimate the replaced value which is able to identify internal status by using set of available signals when it is impossible to use instrumentation information in a severe accident, which is the continuation of the paper which was submitted at the last KNS meeting. The concept of the VPN was suggested to improve the quality of parameters particularly to be logged during severe accidents in NPPs using a software based approach, and quantize the importance of each parameter for further maintenance. In the future, we will continue to perform the same analysis to other accident scenarios and extend the spectrum of initial conditions so that we are able to get more sets of VPNs and ANN models to predict the behavior of accident scenarios. The suggested method has the uncertainty underlain in the analysis code for severe accidents. However, In case of failure to the safety critical instrumentation, the information from the VPN would be available to carry out safety management operation.

  18. Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1989-11-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

  19. Development of the model for the stress calculation of fuel assembly under accident load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Il Kon

    1993-01-01

    The finite element model for the stress calculation in guide thimbles of a fuel assembly (FA) under seismic and loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) load is developed. For the stress calculation of FA under accident load, at first the program MAIN is developed to select the worst bending mode shaped FA from core model. And then the model for the stress calculation of FA is developed by means of the finite element code. The calculated results of program MAIN are used as the kinematic constraints of the finite element model of a FA. Compared the calculated results of the stiffness of the finite element model of FA with the test results they have good agreements. (Author)

  20. Statistical analysis of the early phase of SBO accident for PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozmenkov, Yaroslav, E-mail: y.kozmenkov@hzdr.de; Jobst, Matthias, E-mail: m.jobst@hzdr.de; Kliem, Soeren, E-mail: s.kliem@hzdr.de; Schaefer, Frank, E-mail: f.schaefer@hzdr.de; Wilhelm, Polina, E-mail: p.wilhelm@hzdr.de

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • Best estimate model of generic German PWR is used in ATHLET-CD simulations. • Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the early phase of SBO accident is presented. • Prediction intervals for occurrence of main events are evaluated. - Abstract: A statistical approach is used to analyse the early phase of station blackout accident for generic German PWR with the best estimate system code ATHLET-CD as a computation tool. The analysis is mainly focused on the timescale uncertainties of the accident events which can be detected at the plant. The developed input deck allows variations of all input uncertainty parameters relevant to the case. The list of identified and quantified input uncertainties includes 30 parameters related to the simulated physical phenomena/processes. Time uncertainties of main events as well as the major contributors to these uncertainties are defined. The uncertainty in decay heat has the highest contribution to the uncertainties of the analysed events. A linear regression analysis is used for predicting times of future events from detected times of occurred/past events. An accuracy of event predictions is estimated and verified. The presented statistical approach could be helpful for assessing and improving existing or elaborating additional emergency operating procedures aimed to prevent severe damage of reactor core.

  1. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.

    2012-09-01

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  2. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  3. Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

    2016-01-01

    Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

  4. Comparative analysis of a hypothetical loss-of-flow accident in an irradiated LMFBR core using different computer models for a common benchmark problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wider, H.U.; Devos, J.; Nguyen, H.; Goethem, G. Van.; Miles, K.J.; Tentner, A.M.; Pizzica, P.

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of an international exercise to compare whole-core accident calculations of the initiation phase of an unprotected LOF accident in a large irradiated LMFBR. The results for the accident phase before pin failure are in rather good agreement except for the fuel pin mechanics predictions. There are also some differences in the sodium boiling calculations but the voiding rates which are of key importance are very similar. The post - failure fuel motion and sodium voiding predictions show significant differences. However, the majority of these calculations agree that temporary fuel accumulations occur which increase the power beyond that caused by sodium voiding alone

  5. Alternative evacuation strategies for nuclear power accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, Gregory D.; Bier, Vicki M.

    2015-01-01

    In the U.S., current protective-action strategies to safeguard the public following a nuclear power accident have remained largely unchanged since their implementation in the early 1980s. In the past thirty years, new technologies have been introduced, allowing faster computations, better modeling of predicted radiological consequences, and improved accident mapping using geographic information systems (GIS). Utilizing these new technologies, we evaluate the efficacy of alternative strategies, called adaptive protective action zones (APAZs), that use site-specific and event-specific data to dynamically determine evacuation boundaries with simple heuristics in order to better inform protective action decisions (rather than relying on pre-event regulatory bright lines). Several candidate APAZs were developed and then compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s keyhole evacuation strategy (and full evacuation of the emergency planning zone). Two of the APAZs were better on average than existing NRC strategies at reducing either the radiological exposure, the population evacuated, or both. These APAZs are especially effective for larger radioactive plumes and at high population sites; one of them is better at reducing radiation exposure, while the other is better at reducing the size of the population evacuated. - Highlights: • Developed framework to compare nuclear power accident evacuation strategies. • Evacuation strategies were compared on basis of radiological and evacuation risk. • Current strategies are adequate for smaller scale nuclear power accidents. • New strategies reduced radiation exposure and evacuation size for larger accidents

  6. Accidents in the construction industry in the Netherlands: An analysis of accident reports using Storybuilder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ale, B.J.M.; Bellamy, L.J.; Baksteen, H.; Damen, M.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Hale, A.R.; Mud, M.; Oh, J.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Whiston, J.Y.

    2008-01-01

    As part of an ongoing effort by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment of the Netherlands, a research project is being undertaken to construct a causal model for occupational risk. This model should provide quantitative insight into the causes and consequences of occupational accidents. One of the components of the model is a tool to systematically classify and analyse reports of past accidents. This tool 'Storybuilder' was described in earlier papers. In this paper, Storybuilder is used to analyse the causes of accidents reported in the database of the Dutch Labour Inspectorate involving people working in the construction industry. Conclusions are drawn on measures to reduce the accident probability. Some of these conclusions are contrary to common beliefs in the industry

  7. Modeling of pipe break accident in a district heating system using RELAP5 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliatka, A.; Valinčius, M.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability of a district heat supply system is a very important factor. However, accidents are inevitable and they occur due to various reasons, therefore it is necessary to have possibility to evaluate the consequences of possible accidents. This paper demonstrated the capabilities of developed district heating network model (for RELAP5 code) to analyze dynamic processes taking place in the network. A pipe break in a water supply line accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) heating network is presented in this paper. The results of this case study were used to demonstrate a possibility of the break location identification by pressure decrease propagation in the network. -- Highlights: ► Nuclear reactor accident analysis code RELAP5 was applied for accident analysis in a district heating network. ► Pipe break accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) district heating network has been analyzed. ► An innovative method of pipe break location identification by pressure-time data is proposed.

  8. Improvements to the RELAP/SCDAPSIM of Laguna Verde model for the analysis of transients and accidents; Mejoras al modelo de Laguna Verde de RELAP/SCDAPSIM para el analisis de transitorios y accidentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amador G, R.; Castillo D, R.; Ortiz V, J.; Araiza M, E.; Martinez C, E., E-mail: rogelio.castillo@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    This work presents the improvements to the integral model of the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde for the RELAP/SCDAPSIM code, for the simulation of transients and severe accidents. The model includes a new detailed geometry of the steam lines, as well as improvements in the performance of the emergency systems. A primary containment model has also been created, which will be used to analyze the effect of safety valve and relief valve discharges to the wet well suppression pool and the effect of the rupture of a recirculation loop on the dry well. The simulations performed with the new model show that the changes made improve the prediction of the phenomenology involved during transients and accidents. (Author)

  9. Analysis of radionuclide behavior in a BWR Mark-II containment under severe accident management condition in low pressure sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funayama, Kyoko; Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro; Nagayoshi, Takuji; Tanaka, Nobuo

    1999-01-01

    In the Level 2 PSA program at INS/NUPEC, MELCOR1.8.3 is extensively applied to analyze radionuclide behavior of dominant sequences. In addition, the revised source terms provided in the NUREG-1465 report have been also discussed to examine the potential of the radionuclides release to the environment in the conventional siting criteria. In the present study, characteristics of source terms to the environment were examined comparing with results by the Hypothetical Accident (LOCA), NUREG-1465 and MELCOR1.8.3. calculation for a typical BWR with a Mark-II containment in order to assure conservatives of the Hypothetical Accident in Japan. Release fractions of iodine to the environment for the Hypothetical Accident and NUREG-1465, which used engineering models for predicting radionuclide behaviors, were about 10 -4 and 10 -6 of core inventory, respectively, while the best estimate MELCOR1.8.3 code predicted 10 -9 of iodine to the environment. The present study showed that the engineering models in the Hypothetical Accident or NUREG-1465 have large conservatives to estimate source term of iodine to the environment. (author)

  10. German offsite accident consequence model for nuclear facilities: further development and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, A.

    1985-01-01

    The German Offsite Accident Consequence Model - first applied in the German Risk Study for nuclear power plants with light water reactors - has been further developed with the improvement of several important submodels in the areas of atmospheric dispersion, shielding effects of houses, and the foodchains. To aid interpretation, the presentation of results has been extended with special emphasis on the presentation of the loss of life expectancy. The accident consequence model has been further developed for application to risk assessments for other nuclear facilities, e.g., the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (SNR-300) and the high temperature gas cooled reactor. Moreover the model have been further developed in the area of optimal countermeasure strategies (sheltering, evacuation, etc.) in the case of the Central European conditions. Preliminary considerations has been performed in connection with safety goals on the basis of doses

  11. Application of FFTBM to severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Leskovar, M.

    2005-01-01

    In Europe an initiative for the reduction of uncertainties in severe accident safety issues was initiated. Generally, the error made in predicting plant behaviour is called uncertainty, while the discrepancies between measured and calculated trends related to experimental facilities are called the accuracy of the prediction. The purpose of the work is to assess the accuracy of the calculations of the severe accident International Standard Problem ISP-46 (Phebus FPT1), performed with two versions of MELCOR 1.8.5 for validation purposes. For the quantitative assessment of calculations the improved fast Fourier transform based method (FFTBM) was used with the capability to calculate time dependent code accuracy. In addition, a new measure for the indication of the time shift between the experimental and the calculated signal was proposed. The quantitative results obtained with FFTBM confirm the qualitative conclusions made during the Jozef Stefan Institute participation in ISP-46. In general good agreement of thermal-hydraulic variables and satisfactory agreement of total releases for most radionuclide classes was obtained. The quantitative FFTBM results showed that for the Phebus FPT1 severe accident experiment the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables calculated with the MELCOR severe accident code is close to the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic variables for design basis accident experiments calculated with best-estimate system codes. (author)

  12. Development of Methodology for Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accident Analysis Using MELCOR Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Won-Tae; Shin, Jae-Uk [RETech. Co. LTD., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Kwang-Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The general reason why SFP severe accident analysis has to be considered is that there is a potential great risk due to the huge number of fuel assemblies and no containment in a SFP building. In most cases, the SFP building is vulnerable to external damage or attack. In contrary, low decay heat of fuel assemblies may make the accident processes slow compared to the accident in reactor core because of a great deal of water. In short, its severity of consequence cannot exclude the consideration of SFP risk management. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has performed the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accident. The Fukushima-Daiichi accident has accelerated the needs for the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accidents, causing the nuclear industry and regulatory bodies to reexamine several assumptions concerning beyond-design basis events such as a station blackout. The tsunami brought about the loss of coolant accident, leading to the explosion of hydrogen in the SFP building. Analyses of SFP accident processes in the case of a loss of coolant with no heat removal have studied. Few studies however have focused on a long term process of SFP severe accident under no mitigation action such as a water makeup to SFP. USNRC and OECD have co-worked to examine the behavior of PWR fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions in a spent fuel rack. In support of the investigation, several new features of MELCOR model have been added to simulate both BWR fuel assembly and PWR 17 x 17 assembly in a spent fuel pool rack undergoing severe accident conditions. The purpose of the study in this paper is to develop a methodology of the long-term analysis for the plant level SFP severe accident by using the new-featured MELCOR program in the OPR-1000 Nuclear Power Plant. The study is to investigate the ability of MELCOR in predicting an entire process of SFP severe accident phenomena including the molten corium and concrete reaction. The

  13. Use of flow models to analyse loss of coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinet, Bernard

    1978-01-01

    This article summarises current work on developing the use of flow models to analyse loss-of-coolant accident in pressurized-water plants. This work is being done jointly, in the context of the LOCA Technical Committee, by the CEA, EDF and FRAMATOME. The construction of the flow model is very closely based on some theoretical studies of the two-fluid model. The laws of transfer at the interface and at the wall are tested experimentally. The representativity of the model then has to be checked in experiments involving several elementary physical phenomena [fr

  14. Fast dose assessment models, parameters and code under accident conditions for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Z.Y.; Hu, E.B.; Meng, X.C.; Zhang, Y.; Yao, R.T.

    1993-01-01

    According to requirement of accident emergency plan for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, a Gaussian straight-line model was adopted for estimating radionuclide concentration in surface air. In addition, the effects of mountain body on atmospheric dispersion was considered. By combination of field atmospheric dispersion experiment and wind tunnel modeling test, necessary modifications have been done for some models and parameters. A computer code for assessment was written in Quick BASIC (V4.5) language. The radius of assessment region is 10 km and the code is applicable to early accident assessment. (1 tab.)

  15. Computer code TRANS-ACE predicting for fire and explosion accidents in nuclear fuel reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Hitoshi; Nishio; Gunji; Naito, Yoshitaka

    1993-11-01

    The accident analysis code TRANS-ACE was developed to evaluate the safety of a ventilation system in a reprocessing plant in the event of fire and explosion accidents. TRANS-ACE can evaluate not only the integrity of a ventilation system containing HEPA filters but also the source term of radioactive materials for release out of a plant. It calculates the temperature, pressure, flow rate, transport of combustion materials and confinement of radioactive materials in the network of a ventilation system that might experience a fire or explosion accident. TRANS-ACE is based on the one-dimensional compressible thermo-fluid analysis code EVENT developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Calculational functions are added for the radioactive source term, heat transfer and radiation to cell and duct walls and HEPA filter integrity. For the second edition in the report, TRANS-ACE has been improved incorporating functions for the initial steady-state calculation to determine the flow rates, pressure drops and temperature in the network before an accident mode analysis. It is also improved to include flow resistance calculations of the filters and blowers in the network and to have an easy to use code by simplifying the input formats. This report is to prepare an explanation of the mathematical model for TRANS-ACE code and to be the user's manual. (author)

  16. Accident Analysis Methods and Models — a Systematic Literature Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wienen, Hans Christian Augustijn; Bukhsh, Faiza Allah; Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2017-01-01

    As part of our co-operation with the Telecommunication Agency of the Netherlands, we want to formulate an accident analysis method and model for use in incidents in telecommunications that cause service unavailability. In order to not re-invent the wheel, we wanted to first get an overview of all

  17. The role of fission gas in the analysis of hypothetical core disruptive accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, E A [Gesellschaft fuer Kernforschung mbH, INR Kernforschungszentrum, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    1977-07-01

    This paper summarizes recent work at Karlsruhe with the goal of understanding the effects of fission gas in hypothetical core disruptive accidents. The fission gas behavior model is discussed. The computer programs LANGZEIT and KURZZEIT describe the long-term and the transient gas behavior, respectively. Recent improvements in the modeling and a comparison of results with experimental data are reported. A somewhat detailed study of the role of fission gas in transient overpower (TOP) accidents was carried out. If pessimistic assumptions, like pin failure near the axial midplane are made, these accidents end in core disassembly. The codes HOPE and KADIS were used to analyze the initiating and the disassembly phase in these studies. Improvements of the codes are discussed. They include an automatic data transfer from HOPE to KADIS, and a new equation of state in KADIS, with an improved model for fission gas behavior. The analysis of a 15 cents/sec reactivity ramp accident is presented. Different pin failure criteria are used. In the cases selected, the codes predict an energetic disassembly. For the much discussed loss-of-flow driven TOP, detailed models are presently not available at Karlsruhe. Therefore, only a few comments and the results of a few scoping calculations will be presented.

  18. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoval, A.V.; Kalvand, Ali.; Kazachkov, I.V.

    2013-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS) against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks' distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of other PPS's conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents

  19. Quantitative analysis of prediction models for hot cracking in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A RodrМguez-Prieto

    2017-11-16

    Nov 16, 2017 ... enhancing safety margins and adding greater precision to quantitative accident prediction [45]. One deterministic methodology is the stringency level (SL) approach, which is recognized as a valuable decision tool in the selection of standardized materials specifications to prevent potential failures [3].

  20. Application of the severe accident code ATHLET-CD. Modelling and evaluation of accident management measures (Project WASA-BOSS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilhelm, Polina; Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Schaefer, Frank [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Dresden (Germany). Div. Reactor Safety

    2016-07-01

    The improvement of the safety of nuclear power plants is a continuously on-going process. The analysis of transients and accidents is an important research topic, which significantly contributes to safety enhancements of existing power plants. In case of an accident with multiple failures of safety systems core uncovery and heat-up can occur. In order to prevent the accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, different accident management measures can be applied. Numerical analyses are used to investigate the accident progression and the complex physical phenomena during the core degradation phase, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of possible countermeasures in the preventive and mitigative domain [1, 2]. The presented analyses have been performed with the computer code ATHLET-CD developed by GRS [3, 4].

  1. Identification of NPP accidents using support vector classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In case of the accidents that happens in a nuclear power plants (NPPs), it is very important to identify its accidents for the operator. Therefore, in order to effectively manage the accidents, the initial short time trends of major parameters have to be observed and NPP accidents have to accurately be identified to provide its information to operators and technicians. In this regard, the objective of this study is to identify the accidents when the accidents happen in NPPs. In this study, we applied the support vector classification (SVC) model to classify the initiating events of critical accidents such as loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), total loss of feedwater (TLOFW), station blackout (SBO), and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). Input variables were used as the initial integral value of the signal measured in the reactor coolant system (RCS), steam generator, and containment vessel after reactor trip. The proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. In this study, the proposed SVC model is verified by using the simulation data of the modular accident analysis program (MAAP4) code. We used an initial integral value of the simulated sensor signals to identify the NPP accidents. The training data was used to train the SVC model. And, the trained model was confirmed using the test data. As a result, it was known that it can accurately classify five events.

  2. Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

  4. Proceedings of the workshop on operator training for severe accident management and instrumentation capabilities during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    to. Though uncertainties still remain in the understanding of some severe accident phenomena, this should not be considered as a de-facto impediment against using simplified models both as operator aids in the course of an accident and as an option of a simulator severe accident mathematical model. These tools, however, should be based on state-of-the-art physics and calibrated using more sophisticated codes. Having the capability for periodic assessment of trends and predictions against real plant parameter evolution, and subsequent correction is also advised for such tools. Being prepared for the unexpected is the major objective pursued in training, especially when capabilities extend into severe accident situations. When training for severe accidents is contemplated, skill-oriented sessions should be emphasized as they allow evaluating operator reactions in highly perturbed situations. However, it is also advised to increase operator awareness in case of severe accident situations through tailored sessions stressing knowledge of basic phenomena involved in degraded situations. Though computer-based training could well prevail in the long run, table-top exercises as currently implemented by many utilities also bring extremely valuable results

  5. Heat up and potential failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robb, Kevin R [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    In boiling water reactors, the steam dome, steam separators, and dryers above the core are comprised of approximately 100 tons of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. Historically, the upper internals have been modeled using severe accident codes with relatively simple approximations. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplified heat transfer characteristics, with no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. This modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. The results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident; they are predicted to reach a high enough temperature such that they lose their structural integrity and relocate. The additional 100 tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.

  6. Graphite Oxidation Simulation in HTR Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Genk, Mohamed

    2012-10-19

    Massive air and water ingress, following a pipe break or leak in steam-generator tubes, is a design-basis accident for high-temperature reactors (HTRs). Analysis of these accidents in both prismatic and pebble bed HTRs requires state-of-the-art capability for predictions of: 1) oxidation kinetics, 2) air helium gas mixture stratification and diffusion into the core following the depressurization, 3) transport of multi-species gas mixture, and 4) graphite corrosion. This project will develop a multi-dimensional, comprehensive oxidation kinetics model of graphite in HTRs, with diverse capabilities for handling different flow regimes. The chemical kinetics/multi-species transport model for graphite burning and oxidation will account for temperature-related changes in the properties of graphite, oxidants (O2, H2O, CO), reaction products (CO, CO2, H2, CH4) and other gases in the mixture (He and N2). The model will treat the oxidation and corrosion of graphite in geometries representative of HTR core component at temperatures of 900°C or higher. The developed chemical reaction kinetics model will be user-friendly for coupling to full core analysis codes such as MELCOR and RELAP, as well as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes such as CD-adapco. The research team will solve governing equations for the multi-dimensional flow and the chemical reactions and kinetics using Simulink, an extension of the MATLAB solver, and will validate and benchmark the model's predictions using reported experimental data. Researchers will develop an interface to couple the validated model to a commercially available CFD fluid flow and thermal-hydraulic model of the reactor , and will perform a simulation of a pipe break in a prismatic core HTR, with the potential for future application to a pebble-bed type HTR.

  7. Peace programme for evaluating the impact of accidents contaminating the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brechignac, F.; Vallejo, R.; Sauras, T.; Casadesus, J.; Thiry, Y.; Waegeneers, N.; Forsberg, S.; Shaw, G.; Madoz-Escande, C.; Gonze, M.A. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, IPSN, 92 (France)

    2000-07-01

    The Chernobyl accident, which led to substantial release of radioactive materials in the atmosphere, demonstrated that large environmental areas may be contaminated by fall-out deposition of radioactivity. In particular, contamination by Cs and Sr of agro-ecosystems where food production is taking place is most susceptible to contribute to population radiation dose. Nuclear safety analysis shows that, although very small, the probability of an accident occurring on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) cannot be completely set aside. In such a situation, decision making and management of the contaminated agricultural surfaces largely depend on our ability to predict how, and to which extent, the initial contamination may lead to polluted foodstuffs. Furthermore, the efficiency of the prediction models relies on our level of understanding of the mechanisms governing the transfer of radionuclides in the soil-plant system. Unraveling these mechanisms from in situ observations of environmental areas contaminated by past events is difficult due to the lack of control on both, the contamination itself, which happened in a critical situation, and the natural environment, which is highly variable, temporally and spatially. Such conditions prevent a clear identification of the most relevant parameters influencing the radionuclides transfer and thereby the prediction goal. In particular, current transfer factors introduced in prediction models suffer from unresolved and poorly documented variabilities. This is why IPSN developed a unique research facility capable of generating, in closed and controlled environmental conditions, a mini-accident with release of radioactive aerosols on small-scale, but realistic, samples of crops. These crops are conducted on undisturbed soil monoliths, featuring several soil types from various European countries, managed in lysimeters with advanced water movement control, and placed in greenhouses where three typical climates can be reproduced

  8. Peace programme for evaluating the impact of accidents contaminating the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechignac, F.; Vallejo, R.; Sauras, T.; Casadesus, J.; Thiry, Y.; Waegeneers, N.; Forsberg, S.; Shaw, G.; Madoz-Escande, C.; Gonze, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident, which led to substantial release of radioactive materials in the atmosphere, demonstrated that large environmental areas may be contaminated by fall-out deposition of radioactivity. In particular, contamination by Cs and Sr of agro-ecosystems where food production is taking place is most susceptible to contribute to population radiation dose. Nuclear safety analysis shows that, although very small, the probability of an accident occurring on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) cannot be completely set aside. In such a situation, decision making and management of the contaminated agricultural surfaces largely depend on our ability to predict how, and to which extent, the initial contamination may lead to polluted foodstuffs. Furthermore, the efficiency of the prediction models relies on our level of understanding of the mechanisms governing the transfer of radionuclides in the soil-plant system. Unraveling these mechanisms from in situ observations of environmental areas contaminated by past events is difficult due to the lack of control on both, the contamination itself, which happened in a critical situation, and the natural environment, which is highly variable, temporally and spatially. Such conditions prevent a clear identification of the most relevant parameters influencing the radionuclides transfer and thereby the prediction goal. In particular, current transfer factors introduced in prediction models suffer from unresolved and poorly documented variabilities. This is why IPSN developed a unique research facility capable of generating, in closed and controlled environmental conditions, a mini-accident with release of radioactive aerosols on small-scale, but realistic, samples of crops. These crops are conducted on undisturbed soil monoliths, featuring several soil types from various European countries, managed in lysimeters with advanced water movement control, and placed in greenhouses where three typical climates can be reproduced

  9. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

    1987-01-01

    A recent review of existing models and methods for assessing potential consequences of accidents in the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system identifies economic consequence assessment methods as a weak point. Existing methods have mostly been designed to assess economic consequences of reactor accidents, the possible scale of which can be several orders of magnitude greater than anything possible in the HLW disposal system. There is therefore some question about the applicability of these methods, their assumptions, and their level of detail to assessments of smaller accidents. The US Dept. of Energy funded this study to determine needs for code modifications or model development for assessing economic costs of accidents in the HLW disposal system. The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) review the literature on economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the HLW disposal system before closure. (2) Determine needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system. (3) Gather data that might be useful for the needed revisions for modeling economic impacts on this scale

  10. Accident analysis for PRC-II reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Yongren; Tang Gang; Wu Qing; Lu Yili; Liu Zhifeng

    1997-12-01

    The computer codes, calculation models, transient results, sensitivity research, design improvement, and safety evaluation used in accident analysis for PRC-II Reactor (The Second Pulsed Reactor in China) are introduced. PRC-II Reactor is built in big populous city, so the public pay close attention to reactor safety. Consequently, Some hypothetical accidents are analyzed. They include an uncontrolled control rod withdrawal at rated power, a pulse rod ejection at rated power, and loss of coolant accident. Calculation model which completely depict the principle and process for each accident is established and the relevant analysis code is developed. This work also includes comprehensive computing and analyzing transients for each accident of PRC-II Reactor; the influences in the reactor safety of all kind of sensitive parameters; evaluating the function of engineered safety feature. The measures to alleviate the consequence of accident are suggested and taken in the construction design of PRC-II Reactor. The properties of reactor safety are comprehensively evaluated. A new advanced calculation model (True Core Uncovered Model) of LOCA of PRC-II Reactor and the relevant code (MCRLOCA) are first put forward

  11. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  12. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  13. A dynamic model to estimate the dose rate of marine biota (K-BIOTADYN- M) and its application to the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keum, Dong-Kwon; Jun, In; Kim, Byeong-Ho; Lim, Kwang-Muk; Choi, Yong-ho [Nuclear Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeodaero, Yuseong, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes a dynamic compartment model, K-BIOTA-DYN-M, to assess the activity concentration and dose rate of marine biota when the seawater activity varies with time, which is likely for the early phase after an accident. The model consists of seven compartments, phytoplankton, zooplankton, prey fish, benthic fish, crustacean, mollusk, and macro-algae. The phytoplankton compartment is assumed to be instantaneously in equilibrium with the seawater owing to the huge mass of the plankton in sea, and thus the activity of the phytoplankton is estimated using the equilibrium concentration ratio. The other compartments intake the radioactivity from both water and food, and lose the radioactivity by the biological elimination and radioactivity decay. Given the seawater activity, a set of ordinary differential equations representing the activity balance for biota is solved to obtain the time-variant activity concentration of biota, which is subsequently used to calculate the internal dose rate. The key parameters include the water intake rate, the daily feeding rate, the assimilation efficiency of radionuclides from food, the occupancy factor, and so on. The model has been applied to predict the activity concentration and dose rate of marine biota as a result the Fukushima nuclear accident on March 11, 2011. Using the seawater activities measured at three locations near the Fukushima NPPs, the time-variant activity concentration and dose rate during a few months after an accident for the seven model biota have been estimated. The preliminary results showed that the activity concentration of {sup 137}Cs in fish inhabiting the sea close to the Fukushima Daiichi NPP increased up to tenth-thousands of Bq/kg around the peak time of the seawater activity. This level is much higher than the food consumption restriction level for human protection; however, the estimated total dose rates (internal + external) for biota during the entire simulation time were all much less

  14. Health effects estimation code development for accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, O.; Homma, T.

    1992-01-01

    As part of a computer code system for nuclear reactor accident consequence analysis, two computer codes have been developed for estimating health effects expected to occur following an accident. Health effects models used in the codes are based on the models of NUREG/CR-4214 and are revised for the Japanese population on the basis of the data from the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry and information derived from epidemiological studies on atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The health effects models include early and continuing effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects. The values of some model parameters are revised for early mortality. The models are modified for predicting late somatic effects such as leukemia and various kinds of cancers. The models for genetic effects are the same as those of NUREG. In order to test the performance of one of these codes, it is applied to the U.S. and Japanese populations. This paper provides descriptions of health effects models used in the two codes and gives comparisons of the mortality risks from each type of cancer for the two populations. (author)

  15. Analytical predictions for the performance of a reinforced concrete containment model subject to overpressurization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weatherby, J.R.; Clauss, D.B.

    1987-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Sandia National Laboratories is investigating methods for predicting the structural performance of nuclear reactor containment buildings under hypothesized severe accident conditions. As part of this program, a 1/6th-scale reinforced concrete containment model will be pressurized to failure in early 1987. Data generated by the test will be compared to analytical predictions of the structural response in order to assess the accuracy and reliability of the analytical techniques. As part of the pretest analysis effort, Sandia has conducted a number of analyses of the containment structure using the ABAQUS general purpose finite element code. This paper describes results from a nonlinear axisymmetric shell analysis as well as the material models and failure criteria used in conjunction with the analysis

  16. A model national emergency plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-07-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a result, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request

  17. Code Development on Fission Product Behavior under Severe Accident-Validation of Aerosol Sedimentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Sung Il; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Dong Ha

    2016-01-01

    The gas and aerosol phases of the radioactive materials move through the reactor coolant systems and containments as loaded on the carrier gas or liquid, such as steam or water. Most radioactive materials might escape in the form of aerosols from a nuclear power plant during a severe reactor accident, and it is very important to predict the behavior of these radioactive aerosols in the reactor cooling system and in the containment building under severe accident conditions. Aerosols are designated as very small solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in a gas phase. The suspended solid or liquid particles typically have a range of sizes of 0.01 m to 20 m. Aerosol concentrations in reactor accident analyses are typically less than 100 g/m3 and usually less than 1 g/m3. When there are continuing sources of aerosol to the gas phase or when there are complicated processes involving engineered safety features, much more complicated size distributions develop. It is not uncommon for aerosols in reactor containments to have bimodal size distributions for at least some significant periods of time early during an accident. Salient features of aerosol physics under reactor accident conditions that will affect the nature of the aerosols are (1) the formation of aerosol particles, (2) growth of aerosol particles, (3) shape of aerosol particles. At KAERI, a fission product module has been developed to predict the behaviors of the radioactive materials in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. The fission product module consists of an estimation of the initial inventories, species release from the core, aerosol generation, gas transport, and aerosol transport. The final outcomes of the fission product module designate the radioactive gas and aerosol distribution in the reactor coolant system. The aerosol sedimentation models in the fission product module were validated using ABCOVE and LACE experiments. There were some discrepancies on the predicted

  18. Code Development on Fission Product Behavior under Severe Accident-Validation of Aerosol Sedimentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Sung Il; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Dong Ha [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The gas and aerosol phases of the radioactive materials move through the reactor coolant systems and containments as loaded on the carrier gas or liquid, such as steam or water. Most radioactive materials might escape in the form of aerosols from a nuclear power plant during a severe reactor accident, and it is very important to predict the behavior of these radioactive aerosols in the reactor cooling system and in the containment building under severe accident conditions. Aerosols are designated as very small solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in a gas phase. The suspended solid or liquid particles typically have a range of sizes of 0.01 m to 20 m. Aerosol concentrations in reactor accident analyses are typically less than 100 g/m3 and usually less than 1 g/m3. When there are continuing sources of aerosol to the gas phase or when there are complicated processes involving engineered safety features, much more complicated size distributions develop. It is not uncommon for aerosols in reactor containments to have bimodal size distributions for at least some significant periods of time early during an accident. Salient features of aerosol physics under reactor accident conditions that will affect the nature of the aerosols are (1) the formation of aerosol particles, (2) growth of aerosol particles, (3) shape of aerosol particles. At KAERI, a fission product module has been developed to predict the behaviors of the radioactive materials in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. The fission product module consists of an estimation of the initial inventories, species release from the core, aerosol generation, gas transport, and aerosol transport. The final outcomes of the fission product module designate the radioactive gas and aerosol distribution in the reactor coolant system. The aerosol sedimentation models in the fission product module were validated using ABCOVE and LACE experiments. There were some discrepancies on the predicted

  19. Theoretical models to predict the transient heat transfer performance of HIFAR fuel elements under non-forced convective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, W.J.

    1987-04-01

    Simple theoretical models have been developed which are suitable for predicting the thermal responses of irradiated research fuel elements of markedly different geometries when they are subjected to loss-of-coolant accident conditions. These models have been used to calculate temperature responses corresponding to various non-forced convective conditions. Comparisons between experimentally observed temperatures and calculated values have shown that a suitable value for surface thermal emissivity is 0.35; modelling of the fuel element beyond the region of the fuel plate needs to be included since these areas account for approximately 25 per cent of the thermal power dissipated; general agreement between calculated and experimental temperatures for both transient and steady-state conditions is good - the maximum discrepancy between calculated and experimental temperatures for a HIFAR Mark IV/V fuel element is ∼ 70 deg C, and for an Oak Ridge Reactor (ORR) box-type fuel element ∼ 30 deg C; and axial power distribution does not significantly affect thermal responses for the conditions investigated. Overall, the comparisons have shown that the models evolved can reproduce experimental data to a level of accuracy that provides confidence in the modelling technique and the postulated heat dissipation mechanisms, and that these models can be used to predict thermal responses of fuel elements in accident conditions that are not easily investigated experimentally

  20. Internal dose assessment due to large area contamination: Main lessons drawn from the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrasi, A [KFKI Atomic Energy Research Inst., Budapest (Hungary)

    1997-03-01

    The reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 beside its serious and tragic consequences provided also an excellent opportunity to check, test and validate all kind of environmental models and calculation tools which were available in the emergency preparedness systems of different countries. Assessment of internal and external doses due to the accident has been carried out for the population all over Europe using different methods. Dose predictions based on environmental model calculation considering various pathways have been compared with those obtained by more direct monitoring methods. One study from Hungary and one from the TAEA is presented shortly. (orig./DG)

  1. Internal dose assessment due to large area contamination: Main lessons drawn from the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrasi, A.

    1997-01-01

    The reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 beside its serious and tragic consequences provided also an excellent opportunity to check, test and validate all kind of environmental models and calculation tools which were available in the emergency preparedness systems of different countries. Assessment of internal and external doses due to the accident has been carried out for the population all over Europe using different methods. Dose predictions based on environmental model calculation considering various pathways have been compared with those obtained by more direct monitoring methods. One study from Hungary and one from the TAEA is presented shortly. (orig./DG)

  2. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  3. Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S.Y.; Ahn, K.I.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Phenomenological uncertainty analysis has been applied to level 2 PSA. • The methodology provides an alternative to simple deterministic analyses and sensitivity studies. • A realistic evaluation provides a more complete characterization of risks. • Uncertain parameters of MAAP code for the early containment failure were identified. - Abstract: This paper illustrates an application of a severe accident analysis code, MAAP, to the uncertainty evaluation of early containment failure scenarios employed in the containment event tree (CET) model of a reference plant. An uncertainty analysis of containment pressure behavior during severe accidents has been performed for an optimum assessment of an early containment failure model. The present application is mainly focused on determining an estimate of the containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences of a nuclear power plant. Key modeling parameters and phenomenological models employed for the present uncertainty analysis are closely related to the in-vessel hydrogen generation, direct containment heating, and gas combustion. The basic approach of this methodology is to (1) develop severe accident scenarios for which containment pressure loads should be performed based on a level 2 PSA, (2) identify severe accident phenomena relevant to an early containment failure, (3) identify the MAAP input parameters, sensitivity coefficients, and modeling options that describe or influence the early containment failure phenomena, (4) prescribe the likelihood descriptions of the potential range of these parameters, and (5) evaluate the code predictions using a number of random combinations of parameter inputs sampled from the likelihood distributions

  4. PWR accident management realated tests: some Bethsy results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, P.; Chataing, T.; Deruaz, R.

    1993-01-01

    The BETHSY integral test facility which is a scaled down model of a 3 loop FRAMATOME PWR and is currently operated at the Nuclear Center of Grenoble, forms an important part of the French strategy for PWR Accident Management. In this paper the features of both the facility and the experimental program are presented. Two accident transients: a total loss of feedwater and a 2'' cold leg break in case of High Pressure Safety Injection System failure, involving either Event Oriented - or State Oriented-Emergency Operating Procedures (EO-EOP or SO-EOP) are described and the system response analyzed. CATHARE calculation results are also presented which illustrate the ability of this code to adequately predict the key phenomena of these transients. (authors). 13 figs., 11 refs., 2 tabs

  5. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

  6. Model calculation of radiocaesium transfer into food products in semi-natural forest ecosystems in the Czech Republic after a nuclear reactor accident and an estimate of the population dose burden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svadlenkova, M.; Konecny, J.; Smutny, V.

    1996-01-01

    Radioactivity of food products from semi-natural forest ecosystems can contribute appreciably to the radiological burden of the human population following a nuclear accident, as found after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. In the Czech Republic, radiocaesium radioactivity has been measured, such as soil, mushrooms, bilberries, deer and boar. In this work, the data are employed to predict how a model accident of the Temelin nuclear power plant in southern Bohemia (which is under construction) would affect selected forest ecosystems in its surroundings. The dose commitment to the critical population group is also estimated. (author)

  7. Airborne concentrations of radioactive materials in severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, D.F. Jr.; Denning, R.S.

    1989-01-01

    Radioactive materials would be released to the containment building of a commercial nuclear reactor during each of the stages of a severe accident. Results of analyses of two accident sequences are used to illustrate the magnitudes of these sources of radioactive materials, the resulting airborne mass concentrations, the characteristics of the airborne aerosols, the potential for vapor forms of radioactive materials, the effectiveness of engineered safety features in reducing airborne concentrations, and the release of radioactive materials to the environment. Ability to predict transport and deposition of radioactive materials is important to assessing the performance of containment safety features in severe accidents and in the development of accident management procedures to reduce the consequences of severe accidents

  8. Modelling Reactivity-Initiated-Accident Experiments With Falcon And SCANAIR: A Comparison Exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, A.; Wallin, H.; Zimmermann, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    A critical assessment is made of the state-of-the-art fuel performance code FALCON in the context of selected Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) experiments from the CABRI REP Na series, and contrasts its predictions against those of the extensively benchmarked SCANAIR (Version 3.2) code. The thermal fields in the fuel and cladding, the clad mechanical deformation, and the Fission Gas Release (FGR) are adopted as 'Figures of Merit' by which to judge code performance. Particular attention is paid to the importance of fission-gas-induced clad deformation (which is modelled in SCANAIR, but not in FALCON), relative to that driven by the fuel thermal expansion (which is modelled by both codes). The thermal fields calculated by the codes are in good agreement with each other, especially during the initial stages of the transients --- the adiabatic phase. Larger discrepancies are observed at later times, and are due to the different models applied to calculate the gap conductance. FALCON predicts clad permanent deformations at the end of the transients with a maximum deviation from the experimental measurements of about 20%. Generally, the code always tends to underpredict the measurements. SCANAIR performs similarly, but grossly overpredicts the permanent clad strain for the case involving a very energetic pulse. The fission-gas-driven clad deformation is only relevant for very fast pulse energy injection cases, which are not prototypical of the RIA transients expected in PWRs. The FGR models in FALCON do not capture the mechanism of 'burst-release' in the RIA transients, having been developed for steady-state irradiation conditions. This also explains why they performed poorly when applied to the fast-transient cases analyzed here. In contrast, the FGR results from SCANAIR are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental results. (author)

  9. Illustration interface of accident progression in PWR by quick inference based on multilevel flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, H.; Ouyang, J.; Niwa, Y.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a new accident inference method is proposed by using a goal and function oriented modeling method called Multilevel Flow Model focusing on explaining the causal-consequence relations and the objective of automatic action in the accident of nuclear power plant. Users can easily grasp how the various plant parameters will behave and how the various safety facilities will be activated sequentially to cope with the accident until the nuclear power plants are settled into safety state, i.e., shutdown state. The applicability of the developed method was validated by the conduction of internet-based 'view' experiment to the voluntary respondents, and in the future, further elaboration of interface design and the further introduction of instruction contents will be developed to make it become the usable CAI system. (authors)

  10. Strategy generation in accident management support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, M.

    1995-01-01

    An increased interest for research in the field of Accident Management can be noted. Several international programmes have been started in order to be able to understand the basic physical and chemical phenomena in accident conditions. A feasibility study has shown that it would be possible to design and develop a computerized support system for plant staff in accident situations. To achieve this goal the Halden Project has initiated a research programme on Computerized Accident Management Support (CAMS project). The aim is to utilize the capabilities of computerized tools to support the plant staff during the various accident stages. The system will include identification of the accident state, assessment of the future development of the accident and planning of accident mitigation strategies. A prototype is developed to support operators and the Technical Support Centre in decision making during serious accident in nuclear power plants. A rule based system has been built to take care of the strategy generation. This system assists plant personnel in planning control proposals and mitigation strategies from normal operation to severe accident conditions. The ideal of a safety objective tree and knowledge from the emergency procedures have been used. Future prediction requires good state identification of the plant status and some knowledge about the history of some critical variables. The information needs to be validated as well. Accurate calculations in simulators and a large database including all important information form the plant will help the strategy planning. (author). 12 refs, 2 figs

  11. A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyne, Kevin Anthony

    The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional

  12. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Konoval

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks’ distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of oth-er PPS’s conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents.

  13. How did Fukushima-Dai-ichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escobar Rangel, Lina; Leveque, Francois

    2012-10-01

    How to predict the probability of a nuclear accident using past observations? What increase in probability the Fukushima Dai-ichi event does entail? Many models and approaches can be used to answer these questions. Poisson regression as well as Bayesian updating are good candidates. However, they fail to address these issues properly because the independence assumption in which they are based on is violated. We propose a Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA) based in a state-space time series approach to overcome this critical drawback. We find an increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident for the next year in the world by a factor of ten owing to the new major accident that took place in Japan in 2011. (authors)

  14. Reactor accident calculation models in use in the Nordic countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveten, U.

    1984-01-01

    The report relates to a subproject under a Nordic project called ''Large reactor accidents - consequences and mitigating actions''. In the first part of the report short descriptions of the various models are given. A systematic list by subject is then given. In the main body of the report chapter and subchapter headings are by subject. (Auth.)

  15. The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

  16. Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

  17. Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

    2017-10-01

    Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

  18. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamrane, Y.; Wybo, J.-L.; Armand, P.

    2013-01-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. -- Highlights: • Study of atmospheric dispersion modeling use during nuclear accidents. • ADM tools were mainly used in a diagnosis approach during Chernobyl accident. • ADM tools were also used

  19. Comparison of the foodchain transport models of WASH-1400 and MARC using the accident consequence model UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhauer, C.

    1985-04-01

    Within the frame of the contract with the European Community 'Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents' (CEC-MARIA) comparative accident consequence assessments were performed with the computer code UFOMOD, replacing the currently implemented foodchain transport model of the WASH-1400 study by the dynamic transport model of the MARC methodology. The calculations were based on the release category FK2 of the German Risk Study with meteorological data representing four different regions of the Federal Republic of Germany. The study of seasonal variations was carried out with the MARC data for four representative times of deposition with an agricultural practice adopted in the UK. In this report the differences are presented which are observed in the potential doses due to ingestion, the areas affected by food-bans and the late health effects when using both models and taking the influence of seasonal effects into account. (orig.) [de

  20. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  1. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP`s cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs.

  2. Accident sequence quantification with KIRAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Kim, Kil You; Yang, Jun Eon; Jeong, Won Dae; Chang, Seung Cheol; Sung, Tae Yong; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Lee, Yoon Hwan; Hwang, Mi Jeong.

    1997-01-01

    The tasks of probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) consists of the identification of initiating events, the construction of event tree for each initiating event, construction of fault trees for event tree logics, the analysis of reliability data and finally the accident sequence quantification. In the PSA, the accident sequence quantification is to calculate the core damage frequency, importance analysis and uncertainty analysis. Accident sequence quantification requires to understand the whole model of the PSA because it has to combine all event tree and fault tree models, and requires the excellent computer code because it takes long computation time. Advanced Research Group of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) has developed PSA workstation KIRAP(Korea Integrated Reliability Analysis Code Package) for the PSA work. This report describes the procedures to perform accident sequence quantification, the method to use KIRAP's cut set generator, and method to perform the accident sequence quantification with KIRAP. (author). 6 refs

  3. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  4. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  5. Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Tahira M

    2015-11-01

    According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Radiation accident at the South Urals in 1957

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikipelov, B.V.; Romanov, G.N.; Buldakov, L.A.; Babaev, N.S.; Kholina, Yu.B.; Mikerin, E.I.

    1989-01-01

    Radiation accidents with release of radioactive substances into environment which took place in the South Ural in 1957 is evaluated. Scientific researches conducted since 1957 are described. Scientific data of unique fundamental and applied value were obtaibed. Recommendations for the organization and content of radiation sanctuary are developed. Scientific researches permitted to make reliable long-turm prediction of radiation situation developed owing to the Chernobyl NPP accident and to work out practical recommendations so as to reduce adverse aftereffects of the accident

  7. The post-accident nuclear issue: the new crisis expertise challenges for the IRSN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champion, D.

    2010-01-01

    The author reports the work performed by two work groups conducted by the IRSN (the French Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute), the first one on the issue of assessment of radiological and dosimetric consequences in a post-accident situation, and the second one on hypotheses to be used to perform predictive assessments of these consequences. First dealing with the end of the emergency phase, he describes how to anticipate actions of protection against immediate post-accident consequences: orientation of the expertise strategy based on the CODIRPA's doctrine, post-accident zoning based on predictive indicators, use of reasonably prudent hypotheses for the first predictive assessments, importance of initial radioactive deposits to perform predictive assessments. Then, the author presents an iterative method of assessment of post-accident consequences: organization of environment radioactivity measurement programmes, periodic update of mapping of initial deposit and of actual deposits at a given time

  8. Outline of the Desktop Severe Accident Graphic Simulator Module for OPR-1000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduce the desktop severe accident graphic simulator module (VMAAP) which is a window-based severe accident simulator using MAAP as its engine. The VMAAP is one of the submodules in SAMEX system (Severe Accident Management Support Expert System) which is a decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant. The SAMEX system consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) Severe accident risk data base module (SARDB): stores the data of integrated severe accident analysis code results like MAAP and MELCOR for hundreds of high frequency scenarios for the reference plant; (b) Risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD): provides a platform to identify the initiating event, determine plant status and equipment availability, diagnoses the status of the reactor core, reactor vessel and containment building, and predicts the plant behaviors; (c) Severe accident management simulator module (VMAAP): runs the MAAP4 code with user friendly graphic interface for input deck and output display; (d) On-line severe accident management guidance module (On-line SAMG); provides available accident management strategies with an electronic format. The role of VMAAP in SAMEX can be described as followings. SARDB contains the most of high frequency scenarios based on a level 2 probabilistic safety analysis. Therefore, there is good chance that a real accident sequence is similar to one of the data base cases. In such a case, RI-SARD can predict an accident progression by a scenario-base or symptom-base search depends on the available plant parameter information. Nevertheless, there still may be deviations or variations between the actual scenario and the data base scenario. The deviations can be decreased by using a real-time graphic accident simulator, VMAAP.. VMAAP is a MAAP4-based severe accident simulation model for OPR-1000 plant. It can simulate spectrum of physical processes

  9. Outline of the Desktop Severe Accident Graphic Simulator Module for OPR-1000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This paper introduce the desktop severe accident graphic simulator module (VMAAP) which is a window-based severe accident simulator using MAAP as its engine. The VMAAP is one of the submodules in SAMEX system (Severe Accident Management Support Expert System) which is a decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant. The SAMEX system consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) Severe accident risk data base module (SARDB): stores the data of integrated severe accident analysis code results like MAAP and MELCOR for hundreds of high frequency scenarios for the reference plant; (b) Risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD): provides a platform to identify the initiating event, determine plant status and equipment availability, diagnoses the status of the reactor core, reactor vessel and containment building, and predicts the plant behaviors; (c) Severe accident management simulator module (VMAAP): runs the MAAP4 code with user friendly graphic interface for input deck and output display; (d) On-line severe accident management guidance module (On-line SAMG); provides available accident management strategies with an electronic format. The role of VMAAP in SAMEX can be described as followings. SARDB contains the most of high frequency scenarios based on a level 2 probabilistic safety analysis. Therefore, there is good chance that a real accident sequence is similar to one of the data base cases. In such a case, RI-SARD can predict an accident progression by a scenario-base or symptom-base search depends on the available plant parameter information. Nevertheless, there still may be deviations or variations between the actual scenario and the data base scenario. The deviations can be decreased by using a real-time graphic accident simulator, VMAAP.. VMAAP is a MAAP4-based severe accident simulation model for OPR-1000 plant. It can simulate spectrum of physical processes

  10. Improved point-kinetics model for the BWR control rod drop accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neogy, P.; Wakabayashi, T.; Carew, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    A simple prescription to account for spatial feedback weighting effects in RDA (rod drop accident) point-kinetics analyses has been derived and tested. The point-kinetics feedback model is linear in the core peaking factor, F/sub Q/, and in the core average void fraction and fuel temperature. Comparison with detailed spatial kinetics analyses indicates that the improved point-kinetics model provides an accurate description of the BWR RDA

  11. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of

  12. Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

  13. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  14. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Development of severe accident analysis code - A study on the molten core-concrete interaction under severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Chang Hyun; Lee, Byung Chul; Huh, Chang Wook; Kim, Doh Young; Kim, Ju Yeul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to understand the phenomena of the molten core/concrete interaction during the hypothetical severe accident, and to develop the model for heat transfer and physical phenomena in MCCIs. The contents of this study are analysis of mechanism in MCCIs and assessment of heat transfer models, evaluation of model in CORCON code and verification in CORCON using SWISS and SURC Experiments, and 1000 MWe PWR reactor cavity coolability, and establishment a model for prediction of the crust formation and temperature of melt-pool. The properties and flow condition of melt pool covering with the conditions of severe accident are used to evaluate the heat transfer coefficients in each reviewed model. Also, the scope and limitation of each model for application is assessed. A phenomenological analysis is performed with MELCOR 1.8.2 and MELCOR 1.8.3 And its results is compared with corresponding experimental reports of SWISS and SURC experiments. And the calculation is performed to assess the 1000 MWe PWR reactor cavity coolability. To improve the heat transfer model between melt-pool and overlying coolant and analyze the phase change of melt-pool, 2 dimensional governing equations are established using the enthalpy method and computational program is accomplished in this study. The benchmarking calculation is performed and its results are compared to the experiment which has not considered effects of the coolant boiling and the gas injection. Ultimately, the model shall be developed for considering the gas injection effect and coolant boiling effect. 66 refs., 10 tabs., 29 refs. (author)

  16. Severe Accident Research Program plan update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    In August 1989, the staff published NUREG-1365, ''Revised Severe Accident Research Program Plan.'' Since 1989, significant progress has been made in severe accident research to warrant an update to NUREG-1365. The staff has prepared this SARP Plan Update to: (1) Identify those issues that have been closed or are near completion, (2) Describe the progress in our understanding of important severe accident phenomena, (3) Define the long-term research that is directed at improving our understanding of severe accident phenomena and developing improved methods for assessing core melt progression, direct containment heating, and fuel-coolant interactions, and (4) Reflect the growing emphasis in two additional areas--advanced light water reactors, and support for the assessment of criteria for containment performance during severe accidents. The report describes recent major accomplishments in understanding the underlying phenomena that can occur during a severe accident. These include Mark I liner failure, severe accident scaling methodology, source term issues, core-concrete interactions, hydrogen transport and combustion, TMI-2 Vessel Investigation Project, and direct containment heating. The report also describes the major planned activities under the SARP over the next several years. These activities will focus on two phenomenological issues (core melt progression, and fuel-coolant interactions and debris coolability) that have significant uncertainties that impact our understanding and ability to predict severe accident phenomena and their effect on containment performance SARP will also focus on severe accident code development, assessment and validation. As the staff completes the research on severe accident issues that relate to current generation reactors, continued research will focus on efforts to independently evaluate the capability of new advanced light water reactor designs to withstand severe accidents

  17. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

  18. Estimating the Influence of Accident Related Factors on Motorcycle Fatal Accidents using Logistic Regression (Case Study: Denpasar-Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wedagama D.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.

  19. Management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents. Forvaltning av naeringsmidler etter kjernefysiske ulykker; En nordisk modell for nasjonal respons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-04-01

    A model for the management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents is presented. The model is a synthesis of traditions and principles taken from both radioactive protection and management of food. It is based on cooperation between the Nordic countries and on practical experience gained from the Chernobyl accident. The aim of the model is to produce a basis for common plans for critical situations based on criteria for decision making. In the case of radioactive accidents it is important that the protection of the public and of the society is handled in a positive way. The model concerns production, marketing and consumption of food and beverage. The overall aim is that the radiation doses should be as low and harmless to health for individual members of the public. (CLS) 35 refs.

  20. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  1. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  2. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B; Groenberg, C D

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  3. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs

  4. Design study on dose evaluation method for employees at severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Irie, Takashi; Kohriyama, Tamio [Institute of Nuclear Safety Systems Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Kudo, Seiichi [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishimura, Kazuya [Computer Software Development Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    When we assume a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, it is required for rescue activity in the plant, accident management, repair work of failed parts and evaluation of employees to obtain radiation dose rate distribution or map in the plant and estimated dose value for the above works. However it might be difficult to obtain them accurately along the progress of the accident, because radiation monitors are not always installed in the areas where the accident management is planned or the repair work is thought for safety-related equipments. In this work, we analyzed diffusion of radioactive materials in case of a severe accident in a pressurized water reactor plant, investigated a method to obtain radiation dose rate in the plant from estimated radioactive sources, made up a prototype analyzing system by modeling a specific part of components and buildings in the plant from this design study on dose evaluation method for employees at severe accident, and then evaluated its availability. As a result, we obtained the followings: (1) A new dose evaluation method was established to predict the radiation dose rate in any point in the plant during a severe accident scenario. (2) This evaluation of total dose including moving route and time for the accident management and the repair work is useful for estimating radiation dose limit for these actions of the employees. (3) The radiation dose rate map is effective for identifying high radiation areas and for choosing a route with lower radiation dose rate. (author)

  5. Design study on dose evaluation method for employees at severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Irie, Takashi; Kohriyama, Tamio; Kudo, Seiichi; Nishimura, Kazuya

    2001-01-01

    When we assume a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, it is required for rescue activity in the plant, accident management, repair work of failed parts and evaluation of employees to obtain radiation dose rate distribution or map in the plant and estimated dose value for the above works. However it might be difficult to obtain them accurately along the progress of the accident, because radiation monitors are not always installed in the areas where the accident management is planned or the repair work is thought for safety-related equipments. In this work, we analyzed diffusion of radioactive materials in case of a severe accident in a pressurized water reactor plant, investigated a method to obtain radiation dose rate in the plant from estimated radioactive sources, made up a prototype analyzing system by modeling a specific part of components and buildings in the plant from this design study on dose evaluation method for employees at severe accident, and then evaluated its availability. As a result, we obtained the followings: (1) A new dose evaluation method was established to predict the radiation dose rate in any point in the plant during a severe accident scenario. (2) This evaluation of total dose including moving route and time for the accident management and the repair work is useful for estimating radiation dose limit for these actions of the employees. (3) The radiation dose rate map is effective for identifying high radiation areas and for choosing a route with lower radiation dose rate. (author)

  6. Models of fuel masses transition during second stage of the accident on Chernobyl NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarapon, A.

    2002-01-01

    In ISPE NASU of Ukraine are developed mathematical models and software, which allow to research the processes of fuel masses transition during the accident at ChNPP. We found out, that the main reason of accident on ChNPP is the happening in the reactor of crisis of heat exchange of the second sort, instead of the effect positive output of reactivity from displacers of rods of system of emergency protection, as is accepted in official version

  7. Cernavoda CANDU severe accident evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, G.; Marin, A.

    1997-01-01

    The papers present the activities dedicated to Romania Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant first CANDU Unit severe accident evaluation. This activity is part of more general PSA assessment activities. CANDU specific safety features are calandria moderator and calandria vault water capabilities to remove the residual heat in the case of severe accidents, when the conventional heat sinks are no more available. Severe accidents evaluation, that is a deterministic thermal hydraulic analysis, assesses the accidents progression and gives the milestones when important events take place. This kind of assessment is important to evaluate to recovery time for the reactor operators that can lead to the accident mitigation. The Cernavoda CANDU unit is modeled for the of all heat sinks accident and results compared with the AECL CANDU 600 assessment. (orig.)

  8. The application of the health effects models to the severe accident consequence analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling; Yeung, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Health Effect Model (HEM) is an important model used in the analysis of severe accidents consequence of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The accuracy of HEM affects the reliability of the assessment for the accidents consequences, and furthermore, the effectiveness of the emergency countermeasures taken for the health protection of the public around the NPPs. Based on the NUREG/CR4214 series reports, the paper sets appropriate parameters for HEM by studying both early and late HEMs used for domestic NPP accident consequence analysis. In the study, the Guangdong Daya Bay NPP is chosen as an example study to calculate the health risk of the Hong Kong population caused by Daya Bay NPP

  9. Management of accident risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compes, P.C.

    1987-01-01

    The example of the Chernobyl accident and the statistics of the occurrence of accidents make clear the threat to humanity, if one cannot guarantee successful accident prevention in the use and distribution of the projects aimed at. The science of safety, as it is known in the Wuppertal model, makes its contribution to this vital task for the human community. It makes it necessary to create the essential dates and concepts, the methods, principles and techniques based on them and the associated instrumentation. (DG) [de

  10. MAAP - modular program for analyses of severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, R.E.; Lutz, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    The MAAP computer code was developed by Westinghouse as a fast, user-friendly, integrated analytical tool for evaluations of the sequences and consequences of severe accidents. The code allows a fully integrated treatment of thermohydraulic behavior and of the fission products in the primary system, the containment, and the ancillary buildings. This ensures interactive inclusion of all thermohydraulic events and of fission product behavior. All important phenomena which may occur in a major accident are contained in the modular code. In addition, many of the important parameters affecting the multitude of different phenomena can be defined by the user. In this way, it is possible to study the accuracy of the predicted course and of the consequences of a series of major accident phenomena. The MAAP code was subjected to extensive benchmarking with respect to the results of the experimental and theoretical programs, the findings obtained in other safety analyses using computers and data from accidents and transients in plants actually in operation. With the expected connection of the validation and test programs, the computer code attains a quality standard meeting the most stringent requirements in safety analyses. The code will be enlarged further in order to expand the number of benchmarks and the resolution of individual comparisons, and to ensure that future MAAP models will be in better agreement with the experiments and experiences of industry. (orig.) [de

  11. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  12. Prediction of loop seal formation and clearing during small break loss of coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Suk Ho; Kim, Hho Jung

    1992-01-01

    Behavior of loop seal formation and clearing during small break loss of coolant accident is investigated using the RELAP5/MOD2 and /MOD3 codes with the test of SB-CL-18 of the LSTF(Large Scale Test Facility). The present study examines the thermal-hydraulic mechanisms responsible for early core uncovery includeing the manometric effect due to an asymmetric coolant holdup in the steam generator upflow and downflow side. The analysis with the RELAP5/ MOD2 demonstrates the main phenomena occuring in the depressurization transient including the loop seal formation and clearing with sufficient accuracy. Nevertheless, several differences regarding the evolution of phenomena and their timing have been pointed out in the base calculations. The RELAP5/MOD3 predicts overall phenomena, particularly the steam generator liquid holdup better than the RELAP5/MOD2. The nodalization study in the components of the steam generator U-tubes and the cross-over legs with the RELAP5/MOD3 results in good prediction of the loop seal clearing phenomena and their timing. (Author)

  13. A Basic Study on the Ejection of ICI Nozzle under Severe Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Jong Rae; Bae, Ji Hoon; Bang, Kwang Hyun [Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jong Woong [Dongguk University, Gyeongju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Nozzle injection should be blocked because it affect to the environment if its melting core exposes outside. The purpose of this study is to carry out the thermos mechanical analysis due to debris relocation under severe accidents and to predict the nozzle ejection calculated considering the contact between the nozzle and lower head, and the supports of pipe cables. As a result of analyzing process of severe accidents, there was melting reaction between nozzle and the lower head. In this situation, we might predict the non-uniform contact region of nozzle hole of lower head and nozzle outside, delaying ejection of nozzles. But after melting, the average remaining length of the nozzle was 120mm and the maximum vertical displacement of lower nozzle near the weld is 3.3mm so there would be no nozzle this model, because the cable supports restrains the vertical displacement of nozzle.

  14. Accident management for severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.; Pratt, W.T.; Lehner, J.; Leonard, M.; Disalvo, R.; Sheron, B.

    1988-01-01

    The management of severe accidents in light water reactors is receiving much attention in several countries. The reduction of risk by measures and/or actions that would affect the behavior of a severe accident is discussed. The research program that is being conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission focuses on both in-vessel accident management and containment and release accident management. The key issues and approaches taken in this program are summarized. 6 refs

  15. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  16. The Effects of the Daily Driven Distance and Age Factor on the Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Figen Ş. KALYONCUOĞLU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on Turkish traffic survey data (n=5,520, driver accident rates per million kilometre-driver were compared according to the daily driven distances (DDD for each age group as very old (65+, n=39, old (56-65, n=183, above middle-aged (36-55, n=1,875, middle-aged (26-35, n=2,204, and young (25-, n=1,219. When the accidents-per-km comparison was made in groups matched for daily exposure, there was no evidence of higher risk with increasing age. In all age groups, risk per km decreased with increasing daily driving distance. With this study the accident involvement prediction models have been obtained related to the daily driven distance with and without considering age. These models have been applied to some earlier studies. The results are quite satisfactory. The set of data of this study and the analysis controlling the daily (yearly driving distance might make the “age” effect disappear.

  17. MORECA: A computer code for simulating modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor core heatup accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, S.J.

    1991-10-01

    The design features of the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) have the potential to make it essentially invulnerable to damage from postulated core heatup accidents. This report describes the ORNL MORECA code, which was developed for analyzing postulated long-term core heatup scenarios for which active cooling systems used to remove afterheat following the accidents can be assumed to the unavailable. Simulations of long-term loss-of-forced-convection accidents, both with and without depressurization of the primary coolant, have shown that maximum core temperatures stay below the point at which any significant fuel failures and fission product releases are expected. Sensitivity studies also have been done to determine the effects of errors in the predictions due both to uncertainties in the modeling and to the assumptions about operational parameters. MORECA models the US Department of Energy reference design of a standard MHTGR

  18. Recursive modeling of loss of control in human and organizational processes: a systemic model for accident analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontogiannis, Tom; Malakis, Stathis

    2012-09-01

    A recursive model of accident investigation is proposed by exploiting earlier work in systems thinking. Safety analysts can understand better the underlying causes of decision or action flaws by probing into the patterns of breakdown in the organization of safety. For this deeper analysis, a cybernetic model of organizational factors and a control model of human processes have been integrated in this article (i.e., the viable system model and the extended control model). The joint VSM-ECOM framework has been applied to a case study to help safety practitioners with the analysis of patterns of breakdown with regard to how operators and organizations manage goal conflicts, monitor work progress, recognize weak signals, align goals across teams, and adapt plans on the fly. The recursive accident representation brings together several organizational issues (e.g., the dilemma of autonomy versus compliance, or the interaction between structure and strategy) and addresses how operators adapt to challenges in their environment by adjusting their modes of functioning and recovery. Finally, it facilitates the transfer of knowledge from diverse incidents and near misses within similar domains of practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A model national emergency response plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a results, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request. 2 tabs

  20. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G. [Internationale Atomreaktorbau G.m.b.H. (INTERATOM), Bergisch Gladbach (Germany, F.R.)

    1981-01-15

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen.

  1. A dynamic model for the study of evacuation under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, G.C.; Caracciolo, R.; Sepede, M.; Casiroli, F.; Rodriguez, R.

    1987-01-01

    Information techniques and models are being used to simulate the evacuation of people living around a nuclear power plant and these methods are being increasingly used for planning purposes. In this study vehicular mobility on a complex road network following an accident has been considered and applied to the specifications of the emergency plans. Simulation tests of the mobility relevant to different combinations of time and meteorological conditions have been undertaken through use of the computer code TRIPS in order to assess the impact on the road network of an accident situation and the preparedness measures. The study has led to a description of the accessibility time curves related to the population gathering centres and has enabled identification of the best routes in order to achieve the minimum travel time. (author)

  2. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G.

    1981-01-01

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen

  3. Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1982-01-01

    Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

  4. [Prevention of occupational accidents with biological material as per Green and Kreuter Model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manetti, Marcela Luisa; da Costa, João Carlos Souza; Marziale, Maria Helena Palucci; Trovó, Marli Elisa

    2006-03-01

    This study aimed at diagnosing the occurrence of occupational accidents deriving from exposition to biological substance among workers of a hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, analyzing the adopted safety measures and elaborating a flowchart of preventive actions according to the Health Promotion Model by Green and Kreuter. It is an exploratory study with data collected electronically from the website REPAT - Electronic Network for the Prevention of Occupational Accidents with biological substances. The strategy used by the hospital did not reduce the injures. Results were used to elaborate a flowchart of preventive actions in order to improve the workers' quality of life.

  5. RASCAL [Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis]: A screening model for estimating doses from radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoreen, A.L.; Athey, G.F.; Sakenas, C.A.; McKenna, T.J.

    1988-01-01

    The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis (RASCAL) is a new MS-DOS-based dose assessment model which has been written for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use during response to radiological emergencies. RASCAL is designed to provide crude estimates of the effects of an accident while the accident is in progress and only limited information is available. It has been designed to be very simple to use and to run quickly. RASCAL is unique in that it estimates the source term based on fundamental plant conditions and does not rely solely on release rate estimation (e.g., Ci/sec of I-131). Therefore, it can estimate consequences of accidents involving unmonitored pathways or projected failures. RASCAL will replace the older model, IRDAM. 6 refs

  6. Medical aid in the initial period of radiation accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selidovkin, G.D.

    1995-01-01

    The main tasks of medical arrangements on the initial stage of rendering aid after radiation accident are the prime medical classification of the injured persons among the personnel of the plant and population, and realization of measures to avoid the increase of doses. The volume of medical aid depends on the type of accident, on the after-accident radiation situation, on the influence of hazardous factors, on the number of people involved in accident situation and the spectrum of sanitary losses, etc., which is to be predicted in advance and to be taken into consideration when rendering aid. The proper and sufficient aid on the initial stage will build the foundation of the ultimate efficiency of medical aid after radiation accident. 14 refs

  7. Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talerko, Nikolai

    2005-01-01

    This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137 Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137 Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition

  8. Chernobyl - system accident or human error?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stang, E.

    1996-01-01

    Did human error cause the Chernobyl disaster? The standard point of view is that operator error was the root cause of the disaster. This was also the view of the Soviet Accident Commission. The paper analyses the operator errors at Chernobyl in a system context. The reactor operators committed errors that depended upon a lot of other failures that made up a complex accident scenario. The analysis is based on Charles Perrow's analysis of technological disasters. Failure possibility is an inherent property of high-risk industrial installations. The Chernobyl accident consisted of a chain of events that were both extremely improbable and difficult to predict. It is not reasonable to put the blame for the disaster on the operators. (author)

  9. Statistical modelling of the frequency and severity of road accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær

    -reporting. The problem of under-reporting is not unique for traffic accidents as severe under-reporting is a challenge in many other fields of incident reporting. In other incidents fields with intended or unintended harm, research has investigated the behavioural reasons for why people choose to report an incident......Under-reporting of traffic accidents is a well-discussed subject in traffic safety and it is well-known that the degree of under-reporting of traffic accidents is quite high in many countries. Nevertheless, very little literature has been made to investigate what causes the high degree of under...... on the service quality within the police none have looked at the service quality specific for the handling of traffic accidents.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to investigate the extent of under-reporting of traffic accidents in Denmark and trace the under-reporting systematically. As something new...

  10. Modelling of the transfer of Cs-137 from air to crops, milk, beef and human body following the Chernobyl accident in a location in Central Bohemia. Test of the model PRYMA T1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrasco, E; Garcia-Olivares, A; Suanez, A; Robles, B; Simon, I; Cancio, D

    1994-07-01

    This work was made in the frame of the research programme on validation od models for the transfer of radionuclides in the terrestrial, urban and aquatic environments. the acronym of this programme is VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) and is co-ordinated by the International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA) and the Commission of the european Communities (CEC). The scenario was named CB and Was presented by the Multiple Pathway Working group. the scenario description was at the beginning a blind test, that is without knowing the location or the measured concentrations and doses. the input information included data of contamination in Cs-137 from the Chernobyl accident in Central Europe, in air and soils and ore, description of the scenario (data about crops, cattle, demography, human diet, etc.). the aim of the exercise was the contrast between model results and between observed data and model predictions. In this work the results obtained by the CIEMAT-IMA group of modelers are shown and discussed. (Author) 24 refs.

  11. Modelling of the transfer of CS-137 from air to crops, milk, beef and human body following the Chernobyl accident, in a location in Central Bohemia. Test of the model PRYMA T1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrasco, E.; Garcia-Olivares, A.; Suanez, A.; Robles, B. Simon, I.; Cancio, D.

    1994-01-01

    This work was made in the frame of the research programme on validation of models for the transfer of radionuclides in the terrestrial, urban and aquatic environments. The acronym of this programme is VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) and is coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC). The scenario was named CB and was presented by the Multiple Pathway Working group. The scenario description was at the beginning a blind test, that is without knowing the location or the measured concentrations and doses. The input information included data of contamination in Cs-137 from the Chernobyl accident in Central Europe, in air and soils and more description of the scenario (data about crops, cattele, demography, human diet, etc.). The aim of the exercise was the contrast between model results and between observed data and model predictions. In this work the results obtained by the CIEMAT-IMA group of modelers are shown and discussed

  12. Modelling of the transfer of Cs-137 from air to crops, milk, beef and human body following the Chernobyl accident in a location in Central Bohemia. Test of the model PRYMA T1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrasco, E.; Garcia-Olivares, A.; Suanez, A.; Robles, B.; Simon, I.; Cancio, D.

    1994-01-01

    This work was made in the frame of the research programme on validation od models for the transfer of radionuclides in the terrestrial, urban and aquatic environments. the acronym of this programme is VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) and is co-ordinated by the International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA) and the Commission of the european Communities (CEC). The scenario was named CB and Was presented by the Multiple Pathway Working group. the scenario description was at the beginning a blind test, that is without knowing the location or the measured concentrations and doses. the input information included data of contamination in Cs-137 from the Chernobyl accident in Central Europe, in air and soils and ore, description of the scenario (data about crops, cattle, demography, human diet, etc.). the aim of the exercise was the contrast between model results and between observed data and model predictions. In this work the results obtained by the CIEMAT-IMA group of modelers are shown and discussed. (Author) 24 refs

  13. The development and demonstration of integrated models for the evaluation of severe accident management strategies - SAMEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Peers, K.; Kersting, E.; Fassmann, W.; Tuomisto, H.; Lundstroem, P.; Helle, M.; Gustavsson, V.; Jacobsson, P.

    2001-01-01

    This study is concerned with the further development of integrated models for the assessment of existing and potential severe accident management (SAM) measures. This paper provides a brief summary of these models, based on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods and the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) approach, and their application to a number of case studies spanning both preventive and mitigative accident management regimes. In the course of this study it became evident that the starting point to guide the selection of methodology and any further improvement is the intended application. Accordingly, such features as the type and area of application and the confidence requirement are addressed in this project. The application of an integrated ROAAM approach led to the implementation, at the Loviisa NPP, of a hydrogen mitigation strategy, which requires substantial plant modifications. A revised level 2 PSA model was applied to the Sizewell B NPP to assess the feasibility of the in-vessel retention strategy. Similarly the application of PSA based models was extended to the Barseback and Ringhals 2 NPPs to improve the emergency operating procedures, notably actions related to manual operations. A human reliability analysis based on the Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) and Technique For Human Error Rate (THERP) models was applied to a case study addressing secondary and primary bleed and feed procedures. Some aspects pertinent to the quantification of severe accident phenomena were further examined in this project. A comparison of the applications of PSA based approach and ROAAM to two severe accident issues, viz hydrogen combustion and in-vessel retention, was made. A general conclusion is that there is no requirement for further major development of the PSA and ROAAM methodologies in the modelling of SAM strategies for a variety of applications as far as the technical aspects are concerned. As is demonstrated in this project, the

  14. Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinpeng; Li, Hong; Liu, Yun; Xiong, Wei; Fang, Sheng

    2018-03-05

    The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis on relation between safety input and accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAO Qing-guo; ZHANG Xue-mu; LI Chun-hui

    2007-01-01

    The number of safety input directly determines the level of safety, and there exists dialectical and unified relations between safety input and accidents. Based on the field investigation and reliable data, this paper deeply studied the dialectical relationship between safety input and accidents, and acquired the conclusions. The security situation of the coal enterprises was related to the security input rate, being effected little by the security input scale, and build the relationship model between safety input and accidents on this basis, that is the accident model.

  16. Risk assessment model for nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing; Tang Huaqing; Zhang Yinghua; Zhang Limin

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure,and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure. (authors)

  17. Effect of Rainfall on Travel Time and Accuracy of Travel Time prediction with rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    CHUNG, E; EL-FAOUZI, NE; KUWAHARA, M

    2007-01-01

    Travel time is an important parameter to report to travelers. From the user's perspective, accurate predictions and an estimate of their precision are more beneficial than the current travel time since conditions may change significantly before a traveler completes the journey. Past researches have developed travel time prediction models without considering accidents and rain. Normally accident and Rain may cause to increase travel time. Therefore, it may be interesting to consider Rain and a...

  18. Source term and behavioural parameters for a postulated HIFAR loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    The fraction of the fission product inventory which might be released into the atmosphere of the HIFAR reactor containment building (RCB) during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) has been evaluated as a function of time, for each classification of airborne radioactivity. This appraisal will be used as the source term for a computer program, which uses realistic attenuation of the fission product aerosol in a single compartment model with a defined leakrate to predict possible radioactive releases into the environment in a hypothetical bounding case reactor accident which is rather more severe in all major aspects than any single LOCA. Also given are the parameters governing the attenuation of the aerosol and vapours in the atmosphere of the RCB so that their behaviour may be accurately modelled. The source terms for several other types of accident involving the meltdown of fuel elements have also been considered but in less detail than the LOCA case. In some of the cases, the fission products are released directly to atmosphere, so there is no attenuation of the release by deposition within the RCB

  19. Dust resuspension and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Corradini, M.L.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Plasma surface interactions in tokamaks are known to create significant quantities of dust, which settles onto surfaces and accumulates in the vacuum vessel. In ITER, a loss of vacuum accident may result in the release of dust which will be radioactive and/or toxic, and provides increased surface area for chemical reactions or dust explosion. A new method of analysis has been developed for modeling dust resuspension and transport in loss of vacuum accidents. The aerosol dynamic equation is solved via the user defined scalar (UDS) capability in the commercial CFD code Fluent. Fluent solves up to 50 generic transport equations for user defined scalars, and allows customization of terms in these equations through user defined functions (UDF). This allows calculation of diffusion coefficients based on local flow properties, inclusion of body forces such as gravity and thermophoresis in the convection term, and user defined source terms. The code accurately reproduces analytical solutions for aerosol deposition in simple laminar flows with diffusion and gravitational settling. Models for dust resuspension are evaluated, and code results are compared to available resuspension data, including data from the Toroidal Dust Mobilization Experiment (TDMX) at the Idaho National Laboratory. Extension to polydisperse aerosols and inclusion of coagulation effects is also discussed. (orig.)

  20. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

    2015-01-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  1. FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

  2. Degraded core accidents: review of aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, A.L.; Walker, B.C.

    1981-09-01

    Low probability-high consequence accidents have become an important issue in reactor safety studies. Such accidents would involve damage to the core and the subsequent release of radioactive fission products into the environment. Aerosols play a major role in the transport and removal of these fission products in the reactor building containment. The aerosol mechanisms, computer modelling codes and experimental studies used to predict aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR are reviewed. There are significant uncertainties in the aerosol source terms and specific recommendations have been made for further studies, particularly with respect to code development and high density aerosol-fission product transport within closed systems. (author)

  3. Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis for SGTR by Using Dynamic PSA Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Sul; Heo, Gyun Young; Kim, Tae Wan

    2016-01-01

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. Based on the results of a sampling analysis and data from the conventional PSA model, the CDF caused by Sequence no. 26 can be realistically estimated. For a TLOFW accident with LOCA, second accident timings were categorized according to plant condition. Indicators were selected as branch point using the flow chart and tables, and a corresponding sequence tree model was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model

  4. Role of the primary health care team in preventing accidents to children.

    OpenAIRE

    Kendrick, D

    1994-01-01

    Accidents are the most common cause of mortality in children and account for considerable childhood morbidity. The identification of risk factors for childhood accidents suggests that many are predictable and therefore preventable. Numerous interventions have been found to be effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality from childhood accidents. The scope for accident prevention within the primary care setting and the roles of the members of the primary health care team are discussed. Fi...

  5. Credible investigation of air accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smart, K.

    2004-01-01

    Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate

  6. Direction Committee for the management of the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident or of a radiological event (CODIRPA). Work group 'Hypotheses'. Contextual data and hypotheses to perform predictive assessments of radiological and dose consequences at the beginning of a post-accidental transition phase. 2007-2009 work report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report first describes how to examine the various exposure ways of a person present on a contaminated territory and formulates hypotheses for the calculation of radioactive doses received by ingestion of contaminated food products, by external irradiation, or by involuntary inhalation of radioactive particles. It identifies factors which may influence the contamination of food products, and gives recommendations for the predictive calculation of their contamination during the first month following the accident. It indicates available methods for the predictive assessment of radioactive deposits at the beginning of the transition phase. It proposes an expertise method to assess the post-accident consequences

  7. Diving accidents in sports divers in Orkney waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevett, A J; Forbes, R; Rae, C K; Sheehan, C; Ross, J; Watt, S J; Stephenson, R

    2001-12-01

    Scapa Flow in Orkney is one of the major world centres for wreck diving. Because of the geography of Orkney and the nature of the diving, it is possible to make relatively accurate estimates of the number of dives taking place. The denominator of dive activity allows the unusual opportunity of precise calculation of accident rates. In 1999, one in every 178 sports divers visiting Orkney was involved in a significant accident, in 2000 the figure was one in 102. Some of these accidents appear to have been predictable and could be avoided by better education and preparation of visiting divers.

  8. Insights into the behavior of LWR steel containment buildings during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.; Horschel, D.S.; Blejwas, T.E.

    1987-01-01

    Investigations into the performance of steel containment subject to pressure and temperature greater than their design basis loads are discussed. The timing, mechanism, and location of a containment failure, i.e., release of radioactive materials, have an important impact on the consequences of a severe accident. We review the results of experiments on steel containment models pressurized to failure, on aged and unaged seals subjected to elevated temperature and pressure, and on electrical penetration assemblies tested for leakage. Based on the results, the important features and details of analytical methods that can be used to predict containment performance are identified. Finally, we speculate on the performance of steel containments in severe accident conditions. (orig.)

  9. Internal dose assessment in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toohey, R.E.

    2003-01-01

    Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs of interest need to be computed from first principles. Standard bioassay methods may be used to assess body contents, but, again, the standard models for bioassay interpretation may not be applicable because of the circumstances of the accident and the prompt initiation of decorporation therapy. Examples of modifications to the standard methodologies include adjustment of biological half-times under therapy, such as in the Goiania accident, and the same effect, complicated by continued input from contaminated wounds, in the Hanford 241 Am accident. (author)

  10. Predictors of children's sleep onset and maintenance problems after road traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Lutz; Zehnder, Daniel; Jenni, Oskar G; Landolt, Markus A

    2012-01-01

    Sleep onset and maintenance problems are a frequent complaint after traumatic events in children. However, the association of traumatic experiences and disturbed sleep remains to be explained. To examine the incidence of sleep onset and maintenance problems in children after road traffic accidents and identify potential predictors of sleep onset and maintenance problems, including putative psychopathological mechanisms as well as stressors affecting the family system. In 33 children treated for injuries after road traffic accidents, sleep and measures of psychopathology were assessed 10 days, 2 months, and 6 months after hospital admission. The predictive value of four clusters of predictor variables for children's sleep onset and maintenance problems was prospectively tested by multiple regression analyses. These clusters included socio-demographic, injury- and accident-related, and psychopathological variable clusters as well as factors reflecting stressors concerning mothers and family. Children suffering from posttraumatic stress reported a prolonged subjective sleep latency. The severity of sleep onset and maintenance problems was predicted by female sex and the child's as well as mothers' posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity. Sleep onset and maintenance problems in children after trauma appear to result from a complex interaction of multiple factors. Our findings support the transactional model of sleep-wake regulation that bears implications for the development of adequate intervention strategies.

  11. HYSPLIT's Capability for Radiological Aerial Monitoring in Nuclear Emergencies: Model Validation and Assessment on the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Gunhyo; Kim, Juyoul; Shin, Hyeongki

    2007-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident took place on 25 April 1986 in Ukraine. Consequently large amount of radionuclides were released into the atmosphere. The release was a widespread distribution of radioactivity throughout the northern hemisphere, mainly across Europe. A total of 31 persons died as a consequence of the accident, and about 140 persons suffered various degrees of radiation sickness and health impairment in the acute health impact. The possible increase of cancer incidence has been a real and significant increase of carcinomas of the thyroid among the children living in the contaminated regions as the late health effects. Recently, a variety of atmospheric dispersion models have been developed and used around the world. Among them, HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)/ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) is being widely used. To verify the HYSPLIT model for radiological aerial monitoring in nuclear emergencies, a case study on the Chernobyl accident is performed

  12. A microcomputer-based model for identifying urban and suburban roadways with critical large truck accident rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brogan, J.D.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of techniques for merging highway accident record and roadway inventory files and employing the combined data set to identify spots or sections on highway facilities in urban and suburban areas with unusually high large truck accident rates. A statistical technique, the rate/quality control method, is used to calculate a critical rate for each location of interest. This critical rate may then be compared to the location's actual accident rate to identify locations for further study. Model enhancements and modifications are described to enable the technique to be employed in the evaluation of routing alternatives for the transport of radioactive material

  13. Iodine behaviour in severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutton, L M.C.; Grindon, E; Handy, B J; Sutherland, L [NNC Ltd., Knutsford (United Kingdom); Bruns, W G; Sims, H E [AEA Technology, Harwell (United Kingdom); Dickinson, S [AEA Technology, Winfrith (United Kingdom); Hueber, C; Jacquemain, D [IPSN/CEA, Cadarache, Saint Paul-Lez-Durance (France)

    1996-12-01

    A description is given of analyses which identify which aspects of the modelling and data are most important in evaluating the release of radioactive iodine to the environment following a potential severe accident at a PWR and which identify the major uncertainties which affect that release. Three iodine codes are used namely INSPECT, IODE and IMPAIR, and their predictions are compared with those of the PSA code MAAP. INSPECT is a mechanistic code which models iodine behaviour in the aqueous aerosol, spray water and sump water, and the partitioning of volatile species between the aqueous phases and containment gas space. Organic iodine is not modelled. IODE and IMPAIR are semi-empirical codes which do not model iodine behaviour in the aqueous aerosol, but model organic iodine. The fault sequences addressed are based on analyses for the Sizewell `B` design. Two types of sequence have been analysed.: (a) those in which a major release of fission products from the primary circuit to the containment occur, e.g. a large LOCAS, (b) those where the release by-passes the containment, e.g. a leak into the auxiliary building. In the analysis of the LOCA sequences where the pH of the sump is controlled to be a value of 8 or greater, all three codes predict that the oxidation of iodine to produce gas phase species does not make a significant contribution to the source term due to leakage from the reactor building and that the latter is dominated by iodide in the aerosol. In the case where the pH of the sump is not controlled, it is found that the proportion of gas phase iodine increases significantly, although the cumulative leakage predicted by all three codes is not significantly different from that predicted by MAAP. The radiolytic production of nitric acid could be a major factor in determining the pH, and if the pH were reduced, the codes predict an increase in gas phase iodine species leaked from the containment. (author) 4 figs., 7 tabs., 13 refs.

  14. Management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    A model for the management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents is presented. The model is a synthesis of traditions and principles taken from both radioactive protection and management of food. It is based on cooperation between the Nordic countries and on practical experience gained from the Chernobyl accident. The aim of the model is to produce a basis for common plans for critical situations based on criteria for decision making. In the case of radioactive accidents it is important that the protection of the public and of the society is handled in a positive way. The model concerns production, marketing and consumption of food and beverage. The overall aim is that the radiation doses should be as low and harmless to health for individual members of the public. (CLS) 35 refs

  15. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiao Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M. Sam

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  16. Helicopter type and accident severity in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelbein, Jochen; Schwalbe, Mandy; Wetsch, Wolfgang A; Spelten, Oliver; Neuhaus, Christopher

    2011-12-01

    Whereas accident rates and fatal accident rates for Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) were investigated sufficiently, resulting consequences for the occupants remain largely unknown. The present study aimed to classify HEMS accidents in Germany to prognosticate accident severity with regard to the helicopter model used. German HEMS accidents (1 Sept. 1970-31 Dec. 2009) were gathered as previously reported. Accidents were categorized in relation to the most severe injury, i.e., (1) no; (2) slight; (3) severe; and (4) fatal injuries. Only helicopter models with at least five accidents were analyzed to retrieve representative data. Prognostication was estimated by the relative percentage of each injury type compared to the total number of accidents. The model BO105 was most often involved in accidents (38 of 99), followed by BK117 and UH-1D. OfN = 99 accidents analyzed, N = 63 were without any injuries (63.6%), N = 8 resulted in minor injuries of the occupants (8.1%), and N = 9 in major injuries (9.1%). Additionally, N = 19 fatal accidents (19.2%) were registered. EC135 and BK1 17 had the highest incidence of uninjured occupants (100% vs. 88.2%) and the lowest percentage of fatal injuries (0% vs. 5.9%; all P > 0.05). Most fatal accidents occurred with the models UH-1D, Bell 212, and Bell 412. Use of the helicopter models EC135 and BK117 resulted in a high percentage of uninjured occupants. In contrast, the fatality rate was highest for the models Bell UH-I D, Bell 222, and Bell 412. Data from the present study allow for estimating accident risk in HEMS missions and prognosticating resulting fatalities, respectively.

  17. Development of a prototype graphic simulation program for severe accident training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ko Ryu; Jeong, Kwang Sub; Ha, Jae Joo

    2000-05-01

    This is a report of the development process and related technologies of severe accident graphic simulators, required in industrial severe accident management and training. Here, we say 'a severe accident graphic simulator' as a graphics add-in system to existing calculation codes, which can show the severe accident phenomena dynamically on computer screens and therefore which can supplement one of main defects of existing calculation codes. With graphic simulators it is fairly easy to see the total behavior of nuclear power plants, where it was very difficult to see only from partial variable numerical information. Moreover, the fast processing and control feature of a graphic simulator can give some opportunities of predicting the severe accident advancement among several possibilities, to one who is not an expert. Utilizing graphic simulators' we expect operators' and TSC members' physical phenomena understanding enhancement from the realistic dynamic behavior of plants. We also expect that severe accident training course can gain better training effects using graphic simulator's control functions and predicting capabilities, and therefore we expect that graphic simulators will be effective decision-aids tools both in sever accident training course and in real severe accident situations. With these in mind, we have developed a prototype graphic simulator having surveyed related technologies, and from this development experiences we have inspected the possibility to build a severe accident graphic simulator. The prototype graphic simulator is developed under IBM PC WinNT environments and is suited to Uljin 3and4 nuclear power plant. When supplied with adequate severe accident scenario as an input, the prototype can provide graphical simulations of plant safety systems' dynamic behaviors. The prototype is composed of several different modules, which are phenomena display module, MELCOR data interface module and graphic database interface module. Main functions of

  18. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  19. Predictive factors for acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder after motor vehicle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaşan, Aziz; Guzel, Aslan; Tamam, Yusuf; Ozkan, Mustafa

    2009-01-01

    Since traffic accidents are more common in developing countries than in developed countries, we aimed to investigate the association of several factors with the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traffic accidents. In the study,95 participants with injuries from traffic accidents were evaluated at 4 different times: in the beginning, and after 3, 6 and 12 months. During the first evaluation, 41.1% (39) of our participants had acute stress disorder (ASD). It was found that lower perceived social support (OR = 0.0908, 95% CI = 0.834-0.989, p = 0.027) and higher peritraumatic dissociative experience scores (OR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.170-1.516, p accident, we found PTSD affected 29.8, 23.1 and 17.9% of the participants, respectively. Although limitations at work and in social life after a traffic accident were not related to PTSD at 3 months (OR = 122.43, 95% CI = 0.000, p = 0.999) or at 6 months (OR = 63.438, 95% CI = 0.529-76.059, p = 0.089), limitations at work and in social life were predictors of PTSD at 12 months (OR = 155.514, 95% CI = 2.321-104.22, p = 0.019). The persistence of PTSD at the 12-month evaluation is related to ASD, limitations in work and social life, and lower social support scores. In developing countries like Turkey, long-term PTSD is commonly seen after traffic accidents. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jun; Mccabe, Mckinleigh; Wu, Lei; Dong, Xiaomeng; Wang, Xianmao; Haskin, Troy Christopher; Corradini, Michael L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  1. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jun, E-mail: jwang564@wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Mccabe, Mckinleigh [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wu, Lei [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Dong, Xiaomeng [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wang, Xianmao [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Haskin, Troy Christopher [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Corradini, Michael L., E-mail: corradini@engr.wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  2. Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl NPP accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

    2013-03-01

    The coupled model LMDzORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5°×1.25°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.45°×0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels, respectively, extending up to mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 vertical levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The best choice for the model validation was the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986. This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. However, the best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to Atlas), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of

  3. Advances in HTGR fuel performance models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stansfield, O.M.; Goodin, D.T.; Hanson, D.L.; Turner, R.F.

    1985-01-01

    Advances in HTGR fuel performance models have improved the agreement between observed and predicted performance and contributed to an enhanced position of the HTGR with regard to investment risk and passive safety. Heavy metal contamination is the source of about 55% of the circulating activity in the HTGR during normal operation, and the remainder comes primarily from particles which failed because of defective or missing buffer coatings. These failed particles make up about 5 x 10 -4 fraction of the total core inventory. In addition to prediction of fuel performance during normal operation, the models are used to determine fuel failure and fission product release during core heat-up accident conditions. The mechanistic nature of the models, which incorporate all important failure modes, permits the prediction of performance from the relatively modest accident temperatures of a passively safe HTGR to the much more severe accident conditions of the larger 2240-MW/t HTGR. (author)

  4. Application of the Life Change Unit model for the prevention of accident proneness among small to medium sized industries in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Youngsig; Hahm, Hyojoon; Yang, Sunghwan; Kim, Taegu

    2008-10-01

    Behavior models have provided an accident proneness concept based on life change unit (LCU) factors. This paper describes the development of a Korean Life Change Unit (KLCU) model for workers and managers in fatal accident areas, as well as an evaluation of its application. Results suggest that death of parents is the highest stress-giving factor for employees of small and medium sized industries a rational finding the viewpoint of Korean culture. The next stress-giving factors were shown to be the death of a spouse or loved ones, followed by the death of close family members, the death of close friends, changes of family members' health, unemployment, and jail terms. It turned out that these factors have a serious effect on industrial accidents and work-related diseases. The death of parents and close friends are ranked higher in the KLCU model than that of Western society. Crucial information for industrial accident prevention in real fields will be provided and the provided information will be useful for safety management programs related to accident prevention.

  5. Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.

    1988-06-01

    Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.) [de

  6. Prediction of fission product and aerosol behaviour during a postulated severe accident in a LWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guentay, S.; Aeby, F.; Raguin, M.; Passalacqua, R.

    1990-02-01

    Lack of appropriate energy removal causes fuel elements in a reactor core to overheat and may eventually cause core to degrade. Fission products will be emitted from a degraded reactor core. Aerosols are generated when the vapours of various fuel and structural materials reach a cold environment and nucleate. In addition to the fission products release and aerosol generation taking place in the reactor vessel, some more fission products release and aerosol generation will occur when the molten core debris leaves the pressure vessel bottom head and comes in contact with the pedestal concrete floor. Fission products, if they are released to environment from the containment boundary, exert a great danger to public health. A source term is defined as the quantity, timing, and characteristics of the release of radionuclide material to the environment following a postulated severe accident. At PSI a considerable effort hase been spent in investigating and establishing a source term assessment methodology in order to predict the source term for a given Light Water Reactor (LWR) accident scenario. This report introduces the computer programs and the methods associated with the release of the fission products, generation of the aerosols and behaviour of the aerosols in LWR compartments used for a source term assessment analysis at PSI. (author) 4 figs., 5 tabs., 28 refs

  7. Model for calculation of concentration and load on behalf of accidents with radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, L.A.M.; Heugten, W.H.H. van

    1987-04-01

    In the project 'Information- and calculation-system for disaster combatment', by order of the Dutch government, a demonstration model has been developed for a diagnosis system for accidents. In this demonstration a model is used to calculate the concentration- and dose-distributions caused by incidental emissions of limited time. This model is described in this report. 4 refs.; 2 figs.; 3 tabs

  8. Model of cyclist accident characteristics in the city of Malang and Blitar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arifin, M. Z.; Agustin, I. W.

    2018-01-01

    Utilization of bicycles as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation is reconcerned as the development of sustainable transportation programs. The use of bicycles in some developed countries such as the Netherlands is 27 per cent of total travel, while for developing countries such as Indonesia, cyclists are less than 1% of total travel with low educated characteristics (65 per cent) and low income (48 per cent). Cyclist reduces dependencies on petroleum and environmental pollution as well as lessen the occurrence of congestion and traffic accidents involving motor vehicles. It was necessary to know the behavior and interaction of bicycle riders with other vehicle users in a heterogeneous traffic flow. The main purpose of the research is to create a model of bicycle accidents to increase the road traffic safety in Malang city and Blitar city. The research used analyses of frequency, the road’s level of service, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that there was a need for a development basis of a special lane for bicycle. It aims to reduce the level and number of cyclist accidents and to achieve transportation safety as well as to raise public awareness in traffic safety.

  9. Program for accident and incident management support, AIMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Putra, M.A.

    1993-12-01

    A prototype of an advisory computer program is presented which could be used in monitoring and analyzing an ongoing incident in a nuclear power plant. The advisory computer program, called the Accident and Incident Management Support (AIMS), focuses on processing a set of data that is to be transmitted from a nuclear power plant to a national or regional emergency center during an incident. The AIMS program will assess the reactor conditions by processing the measured plant parameters. The applied model of the power plant contains a level of complexity that is comparable with the simplified plant model that the power plant operator uses. A standardized decay heat function and a steam water property library is used in the integral balance equations for mass and energy. A simulation of the station blackout accident of the Borssele plant is used to test the program. The program predicts successively: (1) the time of dryout of the steam generators, (2) the time of saturation of the primary system, and (3) the onset of core uncovery. The coolant system with the actual water levels will be displayed on the screen. (orig./HP)

  10. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  11. Numerical methods operational at the French Meteorologie Nationale for nuclear accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marais, C.; Musson-Genon, L.

    1990-01-01

    Since the Chernobyl accident, the Meteorologie Nationale has developed new numerical simulation methods to assist predictions provided as part of the meteorological support to the public authorities in the event of a nuclear accident. The present paper describes these new tools now operational at the Meteorologie Nationale. In the event of an accident, the first task of the forecaster is to anticipate the evolution of meteorological conditions at the site concerned. A fine scale, numerical forecasting model, PERIDOT, is used covering Western Europe with a resolution of 35 x 35 km. A comparison between PERIDOT wind forecasts and measurements at French NPS sites is presented which shows these forecasts to be of good overall quality, except for Chooz and Gravelines NPSs where the orographic complexity and the proximity of the sea require statistical corrections to be introduced. In all cases PERIDOT forecasts are clearly superior to those based on wind persistence. For accidents of any significance, the transport and dispersion of the atmopsheric polluants need to be evaluated as a matter of urgency. Again the forecaster has a vital role to play using numerical forecasting resources: in particular trajectory forecasts available by FAX within one hour of the meteorological Service Central d'Exploitation being alerted, and subsequently the Eulerian transport and diffusion code MEDIA which can be interfaced with either PERIDOT or EMERAUDE, a model operating on global meteorological conditions with a resolution of 150 x 150 km. This latter model has been tested against the Chernobyl accident with good results, the output is available in 4 to 5 hours after the alert and work is in hand to reduce the response time. Further studies are now in progress to provide a much finer regional resolution (5-10 km) and improved representation of wet and dry disposition at this resolution within MEDIA

  12. TRAC calculations of a loss-of-coolant accident in a reactor scale model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyun, J.J.

    1981-01-01

    The TRAC (Transient Reactor Analysis Code) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory as an advanced best-estimate computer program for analysis of postulated hypothetical accidents in pressurized water reactors. As a part of the TRAC developmental verification efforts, a TRAC posttest analysis of Semiscale Mod-3 Test S-07-6 was conducted. The results of this analysis show that the agreement between TRAC calculations and experimental data is not very good. In particular, TRAC does not predict the long term doncomer and core liquid level oscillations during the reflood phase

  13. Diagnostic and prognostic system for identification of accident scenarios and prediction of 'source term' in nuclear power plants under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh; Gera, B.; Kumar, Mithilesh

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear power plant experiences a number of transients during its operations. These transients may be due to equipment failure, malfunctioning of process support systems etc. In such a situation, the plant may result in an abnormal state which is undesired. In case of such an undesired plant condition, the operator has to carry out diagnostic and corrective actions. When an event occurs starting from the steady state operation, instruments' readings develop a time dependent pattern and these patterns are unique with respect to the type of the particular event. Therefore, by properly selecting the plant process parameters, the transients can be distinguished. In this connection, a computer based tool known as Diagnostic and Prognostic System has been developed for identification of large pipe break scenarios in 220 MWe Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) and for prediction of expected 'Source Term' and consequence for a situation where Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) is not available or partially available. Diagnostic and Prognostic System is essentially a transient identification and expected source term forecasting system. The system is based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) that continuously monitors the plant conditions and identifies a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario quickly based on the reactor process parameter values. The system further identifies the availability of injection of ECCS and in case non-availability of ECCS, it can forecast expected 'Source Term'. The system is a support to plant operators as well as for emergency preparedness. The ANN is trained with a process parameter database pertaining to accident conditions and tested against blind exercises. In order to see the feasibility of implementing in the plant for real-time diagnosis, this system has been set up on a high speed computing facility and has been demonstrated successfully for LOCA scenarios. (author)

  14. Model to predict radiological consequences of transportation accidents involving dispersal of radioactive material in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of accidental releases of radioactive material which may result from transportation accidents in high-density urban areas is influenced by several urban characteristics which make computer simulation the calculational method of choice. These urban features fall into four categories. Each of these categories contains time- and location-dependent parameters which must be coupled to the actual time and location of the release in the calculation of the anticipated radiological consequences. Due to the large number of dependent parameters a computer model, METRAN, has been developed to quantify these radiological consequences. Rather than attempt to describe an urban area as a single entity, a specific urban area is subdivided into a set of cells of fixed size to permit more detailed characterization. Initially, the study area is subdivided into a set of 2-dimensional cells. A uniform set of time-dependent physical characteristics which describe the land use, population distribution, traffic density, etc., within that cell are then computed from various data sources. The METRAN code incorporates several details of urban areas. A principal limitation of the analysis is the limited availability of accurate information to use as input data. Although the code was originally developed to analyze dispersal of radioactive material, it is currently being evaluated for use in analyzing the effects of dispersal of other hazardous materials in both urban and rural areas

  15. Validation and application of the system code ATHLET-CD for BWR severe accident analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Marcello, Valentino, E-mail: valentino.marcello@kit.edu; Imke, Uwe; Sanchez, Victor

    2016-10-15

    Highlights: • We present the application of the system code ATHLET-CD code for BWR safety analyses. • Validation of core in-vessel models is performed based on KIT CORA experiments. • A SB-LOCA scenario is simulated on a generic German BWR plant up to vessel failure. • Different core reflooding possibilities are investigated to mitigate the accident consequences. • ATHLET-CD modelling features reflect the current state of the art of severe accident codes. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at the validation and application of the system code ATHLET-CD for the simulation of severe accident phenomena in Boiling Water Reactors (BWR). The corresponding models for core degradation behaviour e.g., oxidation, melting and relocation of core structural components are validated against experimental data available from the CORA-16 and -17 bundle tests. Model weaknesses are discussed along with needs for further code improvements. With the validated ATHLET-CD code, calculations are performed to assess the code capabilities for the prediction of in-vessel late phase core behaviour and reflooding of damaged fuel rods. For this purpose, a small break LOCA scenario for a generic German BWR with postulated multiple failures of the safety systems was selected. In the analysis, accident management measures represented by cold water injection into the damaged reactor core are addressed to investigate the efficacy in avoiding or delaying the failure of the reactor pressure vessel. Results show that ATHLET-CD is applicable to the description of BWR plant behaviour with reliable physical models and numerical methods adopted for the description of key in-vessel phenomena.

  16. Postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, W.

    1980-01-01

    This lecture on 'Postulated Accidents' is the first of a series of lectures on the dynamic and transient behaviour of nuclear power plants, especially pressurized water reactors. The main points covered will be: Reactivity Accidents, Transients (Intact Loop) and Loss of Cooland Accidents (LOCA) including small leak. This lecture will discuss the accident analysis in general, the definition of the various operational phases, the accident classification, and, as an example, an accident sequence analysis on the basis of 'Postulated Accidents'. (orig./RW)

  17. [Occupational noise exposure and work accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Adriano; Cordeiro, Ricardo; Gonçalves, Cláudia Giglio de Oliveira

    2006-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to verify whether occupational noise exposure is a significant risk factor for work accidents in the city of Piracicaba, São Paulo State, Brazil. This hospital-based case-control study included 600 workers aged 15-60 who suffered typical occupational accidents between May and October 2004 and were seen at the Piracicaba Orthopedics and Trauma Center. The control group comprised 822 workers, aged 15-60, who were also seen at the Center, and either had a non-occupational accident or were accompanying someone who had suffered an accident. A multiple logistic regression model was adjusted with work accident as an independent variable, controlled by covariables of interest such as noise exposure. The risk of having a work accident was about twice as high among workers exposed to noise, after controlling for several covariables. Occupational noise exposure not only affected auditory health status but was also a risk factor for work accidents.

  18. Contributing factors in construction accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

    2005-07-01

    This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

  19. Analysis of Roadway Traffic Accidents Based on Rough Sets and Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxia Xiong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper integrates Rough Sets (RS and Bayesian Networks (BN for roadway traffic accident analysis. RS reduction of attributes is first employed to generate the key set of attributes affecting accident outcomes, which are then fed into a BN structure as nodes for BN construction and accident outcome classification. Such RS-based BN framework combines the advantages of RS in knowledge reduction capability and BN in describing interrelationships among different attributes. The framework is demonstrated using the 100-car naturalistic driving data from Virginia Tech Transportation Institute to predict accident type. Comparative evaluation with the baseline BNs shows the RS-based BNs generally have a higher prediction accuracy and lower network complexity while with comparable prediction coverage and receiver operating characteristic curve area, proving that the proposed RS-based BN overall outperforms the BNs with/without traditional feature selection approaches. The proposed RS-based BN indicates the most significant attributes that affect accident types include pre-crash manoeuvre, driver’s attention from forward roadway to centre mirror, number of secondary tasks undertaken, traffic density, and relation to junction, most of which feature pre-crash driver states and driver behaviours that have not been extensively researched in literature, and could give further insight into the nature of traffic accidents.

  20. Prediction of ROSA-III experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soda, Kunihisa

    1978-06-01

    ROSA-III experiment with the simulated BWR system is to investigate thermal hydraulic behavior as well as ECCS performance in a postulated loss-of-coolant accident. RUN 701 assumes average core power, high and low pressure core sprays and low pressure injection of ECCS. Prediction of experiment RUN 701 was made with computer code RELAP-4J. The results indicate the need for ROSA-III pump characteristics to be clarified and for liquid level formation model to be improved. Comparison of the prediction results with the experimental data should reveal the areas of modifications in calculation model. (auth.)

  1. Improvement in post test accident analysis results prediction for the test no. 2 in PSB test facility by applying UMAE methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubey, S.K.; Petruzzi, A.; Giannotti, W.; D'Auria, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper mainly deals with the improvement in the post test accident analysis results prediction for the test no. 2, 'Total loss of feed water with failure of HPIS pumps and operator actions on primary and secondary circuit depressurization', carried-out on PSB integral test facility in May 2005. This is one the most complicated test conducted in PSB test facility. The prime objective of this test is to provide support for the verification of the accident management strategies for NPPs and also to verify the correctness of some safety systems operating only during accident. The objective of this analysis is to assess the capability to reproduce the phenomena occurring during the selected tests and to quantify the accuracy of the code calculation qualitatively and quantitatively for the best estimate code Relap5/mod3.3 by systematically applying all the procedures lead by Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE), developed at University of Pisa. In order to achieve these objectives test facility nodalisation qualification for both 'steady state level' and 'on transient level' are demonstrated. For the 'steady state level' qualification compliance to acceptance criteria established in UMAE has been checked for geometrical details and thermal hydraulic parameters. The following steps have been performed for evaluation of qualitative qualification of 'on transient level': visual comparisons between experimental and calculated relevant parameters time trends; list of comparison between experimental and code calculation resulting time sequence of significant events; identification/verification of CSNI phenomena validation matrix; use of the Phenomenological Windows (PhW), identification of Key Phenomena and Relevant Thermal-hydraulic Aspects (RTA). A successful application of the qualitative process constitutes a prerequisite to the application of the quantitative analysis. For quantitative accuracy of code prediction Fast Fourier Transform Based

  2. Bayesian optimization analysis of containment-venting operation in a boiling water reactor severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Xiaoyu; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maryyama, Yu

    2017-01-01

    Containment venting is one of several essential measures to protect the integrity of the final barrier of a nuclear reactor during severe accidents, by which the uncontrollable release of fission products can be avoided. The authors seek to develop an optimization approach to venting operations, from a simulation-based perspective, using an integrated severe accident code, THALES2/KICHE. The effectiveness of the containment-venting strategies needs to be verified via numerical simulations based on various settings of the venting conditions. The number of iterations, however, needs to be controlled to avoid cumbersome computational burden of integrated codes. Bayesian optimization is an efficient global optimization approach. By using a Gaussian process regression, a surrogate model of the “black-box” code is constructed. It can be updated simultaneously whenever new simulation results are acquired. With predictions via the surrogate model, upcoming locations of the most probable optimum can be revealed. The sampling procedure is adaptive. Compared with the case of pure random searches, the number of code queries is largely reduced for the optimum finding. One typical severe accident scenario of a boiling water reactor is chosen as an example. The research demonstrates the applicability of the Bayesian optimization approach to the design and establishment of containment-venting strategies during severe accidents

  3. Bayesian optimization analysis of containment-venting operation in a boiling water reactor severe accident