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Sample records for accident development modeling

  1. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  2. Development of a post accident analysis model for KALIMER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, W. P.; Ha, G. S.; Jeong, H. Y.; Kwon, Y. M.; Heo, S.; Lee, Y. B. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    An ultimate safety measure of the KALIMER depends on the inherent safety, which have the core maintain a negative reactivity during any accident periods. In order to secure the integrity of a fuel rod, the void reactivity feedback under sodium boiling must be analyzed. Even though the KALIMER design might not allow boiling at any circumstance, sodium boiling would be possible under HCDA (Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident) initiating events which are represented by UTOP (Unprotected Transient Over Power), ULOF (Unprotected Loss Of Flow), ULOHS (Unprotected Loss Of Heat Sink), or sudden flow channel blockage, due to power excursion caused by the reactivity feedback. The slug and annular flow regimes tend to prevail for the boiling of a liquid-metal coolant such as sodium near the atmospheric pressure. In contrast, the bubbly flow is typical under a high pressure in light water reactors. This phenomenon difference brings to develop the present model, especially, at the onset of boiling. A few models had been developed for the sodium boiling analysis. The models such as those in the HOMSEP-2 and SAS series are classified into relatively detailed models. Both models are usually called a multiple-bubble slug ejection model. Some simpler models are also introduced to evade either parameter sensitivities or a mathematical complexity associated with those rigorous models. The present model based on the multiple-bubble slug ejection model. It allows a finite number (N) of bubbles, separated by liquid slugs, in a channel. Boiling occurs at a user specified superheat, and a generated vapor is modeled to fill the whole cross section of the coolant channel except for a static liquid film left on the cladding or/and structure surfaces. The model also assumes a vapor with one uniform pressure. The present analysis is focused on the behavior of early sodium boiling after ULOHS.

  3. Development of a parametric containment event tree model for a severe BWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T. [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1995-04-01

    A containment event tree (CET) is built for analysis of severe accidents at the TVO boiling water reactor (BWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to correspond to new research results. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting, and are focused mainly on the use and effects of the dedicated severe accident management (SAM) systems. Severe accident progression from eight plant damage states (PDS), involving different pre-core-damage accident evolution, is examined, but the inclusion of their relative or absolute probabilities, by integration with Level 1, is deferred to integral safety assessments. (33 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.).

  4. Development of MAAP5.0.3 Spent Fuel Pool Model for Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Mi Ro [KHNP-CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    SFP model for OPR100 type NPP developed using MAAP 5.0.3. As expected, the accident progression in the SFP is very slow if the SFP integrity in maintained.

  5. Development of a parametric containment event tree model of a severe PWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T. [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-06-01

    The study supports the development project of STUK on `Living` PSA Level 2. The main work objective is to develop review tools for the Level 2 PSA studies underway at the utilities. The SPSA (STUK PSA) code is specifically designed for the purpose. In this work, SPSA is utilized as the Level 2 programming and calculation tool. A containment event tree (CET) model is built for analysis of severe accidents at the Loviisa pressurized water reactor (PWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to include new research results, and so it facilitates the Living PSA concept on Level 2 as well. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting at a low primary system pressure. Severe accident progression from five plant damage states (PDSs) is examined, however the integration with Level 1 is deferred to more definitive, integrated, safety assessments. (34 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs.).

  6. Development of an Ontology to Assist the Modeling of Accident Scenarii "Application on Railroad Transport "

    CERN Document Server

    Maalel, Ahmed; Mejri, Lassad; Ghezela, Henda Hajjami Ben

    2012-01-01

    In a world where communication and information sharing are at the heart of our business, the terminology needs are most pressing. It has become imperative to identify the terms used and defined in a consensual and coherent way while preserving linguistic diversity. To streamline and strengthen the process of acquisition, representation and exploitation of scenarii of train accidents, it is necessary to harmonize and standardize the terminology used by players in the security field. The research aims to significantly improve analytical activities and operations of the various safety studies, by tracking the error in system, hardware, software and human. This paper presents the contribution of ontology to modeling scenarii for rail accidents through a knowledge model based on a generic ontology and domain ontology. After a detailed presentation of the state of the art material, this article presents the first results of the developed model.

  7. Development of a Gravid Uterus Model for the Study of Road Accidents Involving Pregnant Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auriault, F; Thollon, L; Behr, M

    2016-01-01

    Car accident simulations involving pregnant women are well documented in the literature and suggest that intra-uterine pressure could be responsible for the phenomenon of placental abruption, underlining the need for a realistic amniotic fluid model, including fluid-structure interactions (FSI). This study reports the development and validation of an amniotic fluid model using an Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian formulation in the LS-DYNA environment. Dedicated to the study of the mechanisms responsible for fetal injuries resulting from road accidents, the fluid model was validated using dynamic loading tests. Drop tests were performed on a deformable water-filled container at acceleration levels that would be experienced in a gravid uterus during a frontal car collision at 25 kph. During the test device braking phase, container deformation induced by inertial effects and FSI was recorded by kinematic analysis. These tests were then simulated in the LS-DYNA environment to validate a fluid model under dynamic loading, based on the container deformations. Finally, the coupling between the amniotic fluid model and an existing finite-element full-body pregnant woman model was validated in terms of pressure. To do so, experimental test results performed on four postmortem human surrogates (PMHS) (in which a physical gravid uterus model was inserted) were used. The experimental intra-uterine pressure from these tests was compared to intra uterine pressure from a numerical simulation performed under the same loading conditions. Both free fall numerical and experimental responses appear strongly correlated. The relationship between the amniotic fluid model and pregnant woman model provide intra-uterine pressure values correlated with the experimental test responses. The use of an Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian formulation allows the analysis of FSI between the amniotic fluid and the gravid uterus during a road accident involving pregnant women.

  8. Development and qualification of a thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling station blackout accident in PSB-VVER test facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saghafi, Mahdi [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher, E-mail: ghofrani@sharif.edu [Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); D’Auria, Francesco [San Piero a Grado Nuclear Research Group (GRNSPG), University of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, San Piero a Grado, Pisa (Italy)

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A thermal-hydraulic nodalization for PSB-VVER test facility has been developed. • Station blackout accident is modeled with the developed nodalization in MELCOR code. • The developed nodalization is qualified at both steady state and transient levels. • MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in acceptable range. • Fast Fourier Transform Base Method is used to quantify accuracy of code predictions. - Abstract: This paper deals with the development of a qualified thermal-hydraulic nodalization for modeling Station Black-Out (SBO) accident in PSB-VVER Integral Test Facility (ITF). This study has been performed in the framework of a research project, aiming to develop an appropriate accident management support tool for Bushehr nuclear power plant. In this regard, a nodalization has been developed for thermal-hydraulic modeling of the PSB-VVER ITF by MELCOR integrated code. The nodalization is qualitatively and quantitatively qualified at both steady-state and transient levels. The accuracy of the MELCOR predictions is quantified in the transient level using the Fast Fourier Transform Base Method (FFTBM). FFTBM provides an integral representation for quantification of the code accuracy in the frequency domain. It was observed that MELCOR predictions are qualitatively and quantitatively in the acceptable range. In addition, the influence of different nodalizations on MELCOR predictions was evaluated and quantified using FFTBM by developing 8 sensitivity cases with different numbers of control volumes and heat structures in the core region and steam generator U-tubes. The most appropriate case, which provided results with minimum deviations from the experimental data, was then considered as the qualified nodalization for analysis of SBO accident in the PSB-VVER ITF. This qualified nodalization can be used for modeling of VVER-1000 nuclear power plants when performing SBO accident analysis by MELCOR code.

  9. Development of two-dimensional hot pool model and analysis of the ULOHS accident in KALIMER design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Bum; Jeong, K. S.; Hahn, H. D

    2000-10-01

    In the new version of HP2D program, the variation model of the hot pool sodium level is added so that the temperature and velocity profiles can be predicted more accurately than old version. To verify and validate the developed new version model, comparison of the MONJU experimental data with the predicted one is performed and analyzed. And also the ULOHS(Unprotected Loss of Heat Sink) accident in the KALIMER design is performed and analyzed.

  10. Development and application of a random walk model of atmospheric diffusion in the emergency response of nuclear accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHI Bing; LI Hong; FANG Dong

    2007-01-01

    Plume concentration prediction is one of the main contents of radioactive consequence assessment for early emergency response to nuclear accidents. Random characteristics of atmospheric diffusion itself was described, a random walk model of atmospheric diffusion (Random Walk) was introduced and compared with the Lagrangian puff model (RIMPUFF) in the nuclear emergency decision support system (RODOS) developed by the European Community for verification. The results show the concentrations calculated by the two models are quite close except that the plume area calculated by Random Walk is a little smaller than that by RIMPUFF. The random walk model for atmospheric diffusion can simulate the atmospheric diffusion in case of nuclear accidents, and provide more actual information for early emergency and consequence assessment as one of the atmospheric diffusion module of the nuclear emergency decision support system.

  11. Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cafiso, Salvatore; Di Graziano, Alessandro; Di Silvestro, Giacomo; La Cava, Grazia; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2010-07-01

    In Europe, approximately 60% of road accident fatalities occur on two-lane rural roads. Thus, research to develop and enhance explanatory and predictive models for this road type continues to be of interest in mitigating these accidents. To this end, this paper describes a novel and extensive data collection and modeling effort to define accident models for two-lane road sections based on a unique combination of exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables directly related to the safety performance. The first part of the paper documents how these were identified for the segmentation of highways into homogeneous sections. Next, is a description of the extensive data collection effort that utilized differential cinematic GPS surveys to define the horizontal alignment variables, and road safety inspections (RSIs) to quantify the other road characteristics related to safety. The final part of the paper focuses on the calibration of models for estimating the expected number of accidents on homogeneous sections that can be characterized by constant values of the explanatory variables. Several candidate models were considered for calibration using the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) approach. After considering the statistical significance of the parameters related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors, and goodness of fit statistics, 19 models were ranked and three were selected as the recommended models. The first of the three is a base model, with length and traffic as the only predictor variables; since these variables are the only ones likely to be available network-wide, this base model can be used in an empirical Bayesian calculation to conduct network screening for ranking "sites with promise" of safety improvement. The other two models represent the best statistical fits with different combinations of significant variables related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors. These multiple variable models can be used, with

  12. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    accident is very hazardous. If the operator initiates F and B operation properly under the combined accident including TLOFW accident, the operators can prevent the core damage. Since F and B operation is last resort to prevent core damage and necessary conditions of F and B operation are very complicated, the consequence of these events should be considered in PSA model to improve emergency response capabilities under the rare events. Dynamic PSA modeling is better to estimate the effects of heading order and timing issues. Especially, dynamic PSA can model accident sequences and estimate their probabilities through integrated, time-dependent, probabilistic and deterministic models of NPPs, based on the thermal-hydraulic processes and operator behavior in accident conditions. We will develop the dynamic PSA model for the combined accident including TLOFW accident in the further study.

  13. Decision Tree Model for Non-Fatal Road Accident Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatin Ellisya Sapri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Non-fatal road accident injury has become a great concern as it is associated with injury and sometimes leads to the disability of the victims. Hence, this study aims to develop a model that explains the factors that contribute to non-fatal road accident injury severity. A sample data of 350 non-fatal road accident cases of the year 2016 were obtained from Kota Bharu District Police Headquarters, Kelantan. The explanatory variables include road geometry, collision type, accident time, accident causes, vehicle type, age, airbag, and gender. The predictive data mining techniques of decision tree model and multinomial logistic regression were used to model non-fatal road accident injury severity. Based on accuracy rate, decision tree with CART algorithm was found to be more accurate as compared to the logistic regression model. The factors that significantly contribute to non-fatal traffic crashes injury severity are accident cause, road geometry, vehicle type, age and collision type.

  14. Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use...... limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights...

  15. Development of an in vitro porcine aorta model to study the stability of stent grafts in motor vehicle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvish, Kurosh; Shafieian, Mehdi; Romanov, Vasily; Rotella, Vittorio; Salvatore, Michael D; Blebea, John

    2009-04-01

    Endovascular stent grafts for the treatment of thoracic aortic aneurysms have become increasingly utilized and yet their locational stability in moderate chest trauma is unknown. A high speed impact system was developed to study the stability of aortic endovascular stent grafts in vitro. A straight segment of porcine descending aorta with stent graft was constrained in a custom-made transparent urethane casing. The specimen was tested in a novel impact system at an anterior inclination of 45 deg and an average deceleration of 55 G, which represented a frontal automobile crash. Due to the shock of the impact, which was shown to be below the threshold of aortic injury, the stent graft moved 0.6 mm longitudinally. This result was repeatable. The presented experimental model may be helpful in developing future grafts to withstand moderate shocks experienced in motor vehicle accidents or other dynamic loadings of the chest.

  16. Modeling accident frequency in Denmark for improving road safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Hels, Tove; Kaplan, Sigal

    Traffic accidents result in huge costs to society in terms of death, injury, lost productivity, and property damage. The main objective of the current study is the development of an accident frequency model that predicts the expected number of accidents on a given road segment, provided...... concerning police recorded accidents, link characteristics of the road network, traffic volumes from the national transport models are merged to estimate the model. Spatial correlation between road sections is taken into account for correcting for unobserved correlation between contiguous locations....

  17. Correspondence model of occupational accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan C. Conte

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents, we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19×19. Through correspondence analysis, we obtained a structure composed of three axes whose combination identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we used as a general Spanish pattern. The most likely or frequent relationships between the risk and injuries identified in the pattern facilitated the decision-making process in companies at an early stage of risk assessment. Each risk-injury group has its own characteristics, which are understandable within the phenomenological framework of the accident. The main advantages of this model are its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting different country results. One limiting factor, however, is the need to set a common classification framework for risks and injuries to enhance comparison, a framework that does not exist today. The model aims to manage work-related accidents automatically at any level.Apresentamos aqui um modelo generalizado para o diagnóstico e predição de acidentes na classe de trabalhadores da Espanha. Baseados em dados sobre a frequência de acidentes em todas as companhias da Espanha em 11 anos (7.519.732 acidentes, nós os classificamos em uma nova tabela de contingência risco-injúria (19×19. Através de uma análise por correspondência obtivemos uma estrutura composta por 3 eixos cuja combinação identifica 3 grupos separados de risco e injúria, que nós usamos como um perfil geral na Espanha. As mais prováveis ou frequentes relações entre risco e injúrias identificadas nesse perfil facilitaram o processo de decisão nas companhias em um estágio inicial de apreciação do risco. Cada grupo de risco-injúria tem suas próprias caracter

  18. Multi-physics modelling in the frame of the DRACCAR code development and its application to spent-fuel pool draining accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacq, F.; Luze, O. de; Guillard, G.; Bascou, S. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2013-07-01

    To meet the simulation needs of its LOCA R and D program, the IRSN is developing a multi-pin computational tool named DRACCAR. In order to realistically describe the behavior of the reactor core during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), modeling has to take into account many coupled phenomena such as thermics (heat generation, radiation, convection and conduction), hydraulics (multi dimensional 1-3 phase flow, shrinkage), mechanics (thermal dilatation, creep, embrittlement) and chemistry (oxidation, oxygen diffusion, hydriding,..). This paper presents several aspects of the DRACCAR code abilities: investigation of the bundle rods strain during a LOCA transient, checking of the thermalhydraulics during reflooding of a partially ballooned bundle, and application to spent-fuel-pool draining accidents in the case of a propagation of the burn front in a typical non axis-symmetrical situation for the thermal heat exchanges which are driving the accident. (orig.)

  19. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  20. Enhanced Accident Tolerant LWR Fuels: Metrics Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shannon Bragg-Sitton; Lori Braase; Rose Montgomery; Chris Stanek; Robert Montgomery; Lance Snead; Larry Ott; Mike Billone

    2013-09-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is conducting research and development on enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) for light water reactors (LWRs). This mission emphasizes the development of novel fuel and cladding concepts to replace the current zirconium alloy-uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel system. The overall mission of the ATF research is to develop advanced fuels/cladding with improved performance, reliability and safety characteristics during normal operations and accident conditions, while minimizing waste generation. The initial effort will focus on implementation in operating reactors or reactors with design certifications. To initiate the development of quantitative metrics for ATR, a LWR Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels Metrics Development Workshop was held in October 2012 in Germantown, MD. This paper summarizes the outcome of that workshop and the current status of metrics development for LWR ATF.

  1. ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR UNSIGNALISED URBAN JUNCTIONS IN GHANA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed SALIFU, MSc., PhD, MIHT, MGhIE

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide an improved method for safety appraisal in Ghana through the development and application of suitable accident prediction models for unsignalised urban junctions. A case study was designed comprising 91 junctions selected from the two most cosmopolitan cities in Ghana. A wide range of traffic and road data together with the corresponding accident data for each junction for the three-year period 1996-1998 was utilized in the model development p...

  2. Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

    2011-01-01

    The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth.

  3. Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougueroua, M; Carnis, L

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970-2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria.

  4. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  5. Improvement of Severe Accident Analysis Computer Code and Development of Accident Management Guidance for Heavy Water Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Soo Yong; Kim, Ko Ryu; Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, See Darl; Song, Yong Mann; Choi, Young; Jin, Young Ho

    2005-03-15

    The objective of the project is to develop a generic severe accident management guidance(SAMG) applicable to Korean PHWR and the objective of this 3 year continued phase is to construct a base of the generic SAMG. Another objective is to improve a domestic computer code, ISAAC (Integrated Severe Accident Analysis code for CANDU), which still has many deficiencies to be improved in order to apply for the SAMG development. The scope and contents performed in this Phase-2 are as follows: The characteristics of major design and operation for the domestic Wolsong NPP are analyzed from the severe accident aspects. On the basis, preliminary strategies for SAM of PHWR are selected. The information needed for SAM and the methods to get that information are analyzed. Both the individual strategies applicable for accident mitigation under PHWR severe accident conditions and the technical background for those strategies are developed. A new version of ISAAC 2.0 has been developed after analyzing and modifying the existing models of ISAAC 1.0. The general SAMG applicable for PHWRs confirms severe accident management techniques for emergencies, provides the base technique to develop the plant specific SAMG by utility company and finally contributes to the public safety enhancement as a NPP safety assuring step. The ISAAC code will be used inevitably for the PSA, living PSA, severe accident analysis, SAM program development and operator training in PHWR.

  6. A MELCOR model of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevón, Tuomo, E-mail: tuomo.sevon@vtt.fi

    2015-04-01

    Highlights: • A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Unit 3 accident was developed. • The MELCOR input file is published as electronic supplementary data with this paper. • Reactor pressure vessel lower head failed about 53 h after the earthquake. • 70% of fuel was discharged from reactor to containment. • 0.95% of cesium inventory was released to the environment. - Abstract: A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 accident was developed. The model is based on publicly available information, and the MELCOR input file is published as electronic supplementary data with this paper. According to the calculation, the reactor pressure vessel lower head failed about 53 h after the earthquake. At the end of the calculation, 30% of the fuel was still inside the reactor and 70% had been discharged to the containment. Almost all of the radioactive noble gases and 0.95% of the cesium inventory were released to the environment during the accident.

  7. Development and test results of the Realtime Severe Accident Model 5 (RSAM5) based on the MAAP5 For the Kori 1 simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Jin Hyuk; Lee, Myeong Soo [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The Real Time Severe Accident Model (RSAM) in the Kori simulator employs the standard MAAP 5.01.1101 code (which is defined as MAAP 5.01) plus several statically linked libraries that interface with the simulator environment. The physical phenomena that can be envisioned inside the reactor vessel, the reactor coolant system (RCS), and the containment during severe accidents are comprehensively modeled by the MAAP5 code. The MAAP5 code has been known to be a reliable tool for understanding the sequence of events that occur during severe LWR accidents, evaluating the consequences of the failure of emergency systems, assessing the effects of operator interventions, and investigating the influence of design features of the RCS, containment, and safety systems on the accident consequences. The purpose of this paper is to describe the modeling of the Kori Unit 1 nuclear plant with the MAAP5 code and major outputs in the event of the SBO, SBO + SGTR, SBO + LBLOCA.

  8. Developing techniques for cause-responsibility analysis of occupational accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbari, Mousa; Ghorbani, Roghayeh

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to specify the causes of occupational accidents, determine social responsibility and the role of groups involved in work-related accidents. This study develops occupational accidents causes tree, occupational accidents responsibility tree, and occupational accidents component-responsibility analysis worksheet; based on these methods, it develops cause-responsibility analysis (CRA) techniques, and for testing them, analyzes 100 fatal/disabling occupational accidents in the construction setting that were randomly selected from all the work-related accidents in Tehran, Iran, over a 5-year period (2010-2014). The main result of this study involves two techniques for CRA: occupational accidents tree analysis (OATA) and occupational accidents components analysis (OACA), used in parallel for determination of responsible groups and responsibilities rate. From the results, we find that the management group of construction projects has 74.65% responsibility of work-related accidents. The developed techniques are purposeful for occupational accidents investigation/analysis, especially for the determination of detailed list of tasks, responsibilities, and their rates. Therefore, it is useful for preventing work-related accidents by focusing on the responsible group's duties.

  9. Development of Integrated Evaluation System for Severe Accident Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, K. R.; Park, S. H.; Park, S. Y.; Park, J. H.; Song, Y. M.; Ahn, K. I.; Choi, Y

    2007-06-15

    The objective of the project is twofold. One is to develop a severe accident database (DB) for the Korean Standard Nuclear Power plant (OPR-1000) and a DB management system, and the other to develop a localized computer code, MIDAS (Multi-purpose IntegrateD Assessment code for Severe accidents). The MELCOR DB has been constructed for the typical representative sequences to support the previous MAAP DB in the previous phase. The MAAP DB has been updated using the recent version of MAAP 4.0.6. The DB management system, SARD, has been upgraded to manage the MELCOR DB in addition to the MAAP DB and the network environment has been constructed for many users to access the SARD simultaneously. The integrated MIDAS 1.0 has been validated after completion of package-wise validation. As the current version of MIDAS cannot simulate the anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) sequence, point-kinetics model has been implemented. Also the gap cooling phenomena after corium relocation into the RPV can be modeled by the user as an input parameter. In addition, the subsystems of the severe accident graphic simulator are complemented for the efficient severe accident management and the engine of the graphic simulator was replaced by the MIDAS instead of the MELCOR code. For the user's convenience, MIDAS input and output processors are upgraded by enhancing the interfacial programs.

  10. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  11. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L. [and others

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  12. Catastrophe model of the accident process, safety climate, and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guastello, Stephen J; Lynn, Mark

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed (a) to address the evidence for situational specificity in the connection between safety climate to occupational accidents, (b) to resolve similar issues between anxiety and accidents, (c) to expand and develop the concept of safety climate to include a wider range of organizational constructs, (d) to assess a cusp catastrophe model for occupational accidents where safety climate and anxiety are treated as bifurcation variables, and environ-mental hazards are asymmetry variables. Bifurcation, or trigger variables can have a positive or negative effect on outcomes, depending on the levels of asymmetry, or background variables. The participants were 1262 production employees of two steel manufacturing facilities who completed a survey that measured safety management, anxiety, subjective danger, dysregulation, stressors and hazards. Nonlinear regression analyses showed, for this industry, that the accident process was explained by a cusp catastrophe model in which safety management and anxiety were bifurcation variables, and hazards, age and experience were asymmetry variables. The accuracy of the cusp model (R2 = .72) exceeded that of the next best log-linear model (R2 = .08) composed from the same survey variables. The results are thought to generalize to any industry where serious injuries could occur, although situationally specific effects should be anticipated as well.

  13. Development of the severe accident risk information database management system SARD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Dong Ha

    2003-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to introduce essential features and functions of a severe accident risk information management system, SARD (Severe Accident Risk Database Management System) version 1.0, which has been developed in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, and database management and data retrieval procedures through the system. The present database management system has powerful capabilities that can store automatically and manage systematically the plant-specific severe accident analysis results for core damage sequences leading to severe accidents, and search intelligently the related severe accident risk information. For that purpose, the present database system mainly takes into account the plant-specific severe accident sequences obtained from the Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), base case analysis results for various severe accident sequences (such as code responses and summary for key-event timings), and related sensitivity analysis results for key input parameters/models employed in the severe accident codes. Accordingly, the present database system can be effectively applied in supporting the Level 2 PSA of similar plants, for fast prediction and intelligent retrieval of the required severe accident risk information for the specific plant whose information was previously stored in the database system, and development of plant-specific severe accident management strategies.

  14. Development of severe accident management and training support system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Kwang Sub; Kim, Ko Ryo; Jung, Won Dae; Ha, Jae Joo

    2001-04-01

    Recently, the overall severe accident management strategy is under development according to the logical flow of severe accident management guidelines in some foreign countries. In Korea, the basis of severe accident management strategy is established due to the development of Korean severe accident guideline. In the straining system, the professional information as well as the general information for severe accident should be provided to the related personnel and the function of prior simulation for plant behavior according to strategy execution should be required. Korean severe accident management guideline is chosen as the basis logic for development of support system for decision-support and training related with execution of severe accident strategy. The training simulator is developed for prior expectation of plant behavior and the severe accident computer code, MELCOR, is utilized as the engine, and it is possible to operate equipments necessary for execution of severe accident management guidelines. And also, the graphical interface is developed to provide the plant status and provide status change of major equipments dynamically.

  15. MELCOR modeling of Fukushima unit 2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevon, Tuomo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2014-12-15

    A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 2 accident was created in order to get a better understanding of the event and to improve severe accident modeling methods. The measured pressure and water level could be reproduced relatively well with the calculation. This required adjusting the RCIC system flow rates and containment leak area so that a good match to the measurements is achieved. Modeling of gradual flooding of the torus room with water that originated from the tsunami was necessary for a satisfactory reproduction of the measured containment pressure. The reactor lower head did not fail in this calculation, and all the fuel remained in the RPV. 13 % of the fuel was relocated from the core area, and all the fuel rods lost their integrity, releasing at least some volatile radionuclides. According to the calculation, about 90 % of noble gas inventory and about 0.08 % of cesium inventory was released to the environment. The release started 78 h after the earthquake, and a second release peak came at 90 h. Uncertainties in the calculation are very large because there is scarce public data available about the Fukushima power plant and because it is not yet possible to inspect the status of the reactor and the containment. Uncertainty in the calculated cesium release is larger than factor of ten.

  16. Developement of integrated evaluation system for severe accident management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, H. D.; Park, S. Y.; Kim, K. R.; Park, S. H.; Choi, Y.; Song, Y. M.; Ahn, K. I.; Park, J. H

    2005-04-01

    The scope of the project includes four activities such as construction of DB, development of data base management tool, development of severe accident analysis code system and FP studies. In the construction of DB, level-1,2 PSA results and plant damage states event trees were mainly used to select the following target initiators based on frequencies: LLOCA, MLOCA, SLOCA, station black out, LOOP, LOFW and SGTR. These scenarios occupy more than 95% of the total frequencies of the core damage sequences at KSNP. In the development of data base management tool, SARD 2.0 was developed under the PC microsoft windows environment using the visual basic 6.0 language. In the development of severe accident analysis code system, MIDAS 1.0 was developed with new features of FORTRAN-90 which makes it possible to allocate the storage dynamically and to use the user-defined data type, leading to an efficient memory treatment and an easy understanding. Also for user's convenience, the input (IEDIT) and output (IPLOT) processors were developed and implemented into the MIDAS code. For the model development of MIDAS concerning the FP behavior, the one dimensional thermophoresis model was developed and it gave much improvement to predict the amount of FP deposited on the SG U-tube. Also the source term analysis methodology was set up and applied to the KSNP and APR1400.

  17. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2015-08-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  18. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2016-10-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  19. Development of a model to predict flow oscillations in low-flow sodium boiling. [Loss-of-Piping Integrity accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levin, A.E.; Griffith, P.

    1980-04-01

    Tests performed in a small scale water loop showed that voiding oscillations, similar to those observed in sodium, were present in water, as well. An analytical model, appropriate for either sodium or water, was developed and used to describe the water flow behavior. The experimental results indicate that water can be successfully employed as a sodium simulant, and further, that the condensation heat transfer coefficient varies significantly during the growth and collapse of vapor slugs during oscillations. It is this variation, combined with the temperature profile of the unheated zone above the heat source, which determines the oscillatory behavior of the system. The analytical program has produced a model which qualitatively does a good job in predicting the flow behavior in the wake experiment. The amplitude discrepancies are attributable to experimental uncertainties and model inadequacies. Several parameters (heat transfer coefficient, unheated zone temperature profile, mixing between hot and cold fluids during oscillations) are set by the user. Criteria for the comparison of water and sodium experiments have been developed.

  20. Development of the Severe Accident Analysis DB for the Severe Accident Management Expert System (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwang Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-12-15

    This report contains analysis methodologies and calculation results of 5 initiating events of the severe accident analysis database system. The Ulchin 3,4 NPP has been selected as reference plants. Based on the probabilistic safety analysis of the corresponding plant, 54 accident scenarios, which was predicted to have more than 10-10 /ry occurrence frequency, have been analyzed as base cases for the Large loss of Coolant sequence database. The functions of the severe accident analysis database system will be to make a diagnosis of the accident by some input information from the plant symptoms, to search a corresponding scenario, and finally to provide the user phenomenological information based on the pre-analyzed results. The MAAP 4.06 calculation results in this report will be utilized as input data to develop the database system

  1. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  2. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 1 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.; Schroeder, J.A.; Siu, N.O. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho National Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1996-03-01

    INEL has been involved in the development of plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models for the past two years. These models were developed for use with the SAPHIRE suite of PRA computer codes. They contained event tree/linked fault tree Level 1 risk models for the following initiating events: general transient, loss-of-offsite-power, steam generator tube rupture, small loss-of-coolant-accident, and anticipated transient without scram. Early in 1995 the ASP models were revised based on review comments from the NRC and an independent peer review. These models were released as Revision 1. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has sponsored several projects at the INEL this fiscal year to further enhance the capabilities of the ASP models. Revision 2 models incorporates more detailed plant information into the models concerning plant response to station blackout conditions, information on battery life, and other unique features gleaned from an Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation quick review of the Individual Plant Examination submittals. These models are currently being delivered to the NRC as they are completed. A related project is a feasibility study and model development of low power/shutdown (LP/SD) and external event extensions to the ASP models. This project will establish criteria for selection of LP/SD and external initiator operational events for analysis within the ASP program. Prototype models for each pertinent initiating event (loss of shutdown cooling, loss of inventory control, fire, flood, seismic, etc.) will be developed. A third project concerns development of enhancements to SAPHIRE. In relation to the ASP program, a new SAPHIRE module, GEM, was developed as a specific user interface for performing ASP evaluations. This module greatly simplifies the analysis process for determining the conditional core damage probability for a given combination of initiating events and equipment failures or degradations.

  3. Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫

    2003-01-01

    In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.

  4. Development of Parameter Network for Accident Management Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pak, Sukyoung; Ahemd, Rizwan; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Taek; Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    When a severe accident happens, it is hard to obtain the necessary information to understand of internal status because of the failure or damage of instrumentation and control systems. We learned the lessons from Fukushima accident that internal instrumentation system should be secured and must have ability to react in serious conditions. While there might be a number of methods to reinforce the integrity of instrumentation systems, we focused on the use of redundant behavior of plant parameters without additional hardware installation. Specifically, the objective of this study is to estimate the replaced value which is able to identify internal status by using set of available signals when it is impossible to use instrumentation information in a severe accident, which is the continuation of the paper which was submitted at the last KNS meeting. The concept of the VPN was suggested to improve the quality of parameters particularly to be logged during severe accidents in NPPs using a software based approach, and quantize the importance of each parameter for further maintenance. In the future, we will continue to perform the same analysis to other accident scenarios and extend the spectrum of initial conditions so that we are able to get more sets of VPNs and ANN models to predict the behavior of accident scenarios. The suggested method has the uncertainty underlain in the analysis code for severe accidents. However, In case of failure to the safety critical instrumentation, the information from the VPN would be available to carry out safety management operation.

  5. Thermal-hydraulic modeling of reactivity accidents in MTR reactors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khater Hany

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of a dynamic model for the thermal-hydraulic analysis of MTR research reactors during a reactivity insertion accident. The model is formulated for coupling reactor kinetics with feedback reactivity and reactor core thermal-hydraulics. To represent the reactor core, two types of channels are considered, average and hot channels. The developed computer program is compiled and executed on a personal computer, using the FORTRAN language. The model is validated by safety-related benchmark calculations for MTR-TYPE reactors of IAEA 10 MW generic reactor for both slow and fast reactivity insertion transients. A good agreement is shown between the present model and the benchmark calculations. Then, the model is used for simulating the uncontrolled withdrawal of a control rod of an ETRR-2 reactor in transient with over power scram trip. The model results for ETRR-2 are analyzed and discussed.

  6. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang Xinxin [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

    2014-08-15

    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented.

  7. Development Of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment: The Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Y.H.; Mosleh, A.; Dang, V.N

    2003-03-01

    The development of a dynamic methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) addresses the complex interactions between the behaviour of technical systems and personnel response in the evolution of accident scenarios. This paper introduces the discrete dynamic event tree, a framework for dynamic PSA, and its implementation in the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) tool. Dynamic event tree tools generate and quantify accident scenarios through coupled simulation models of the plant physical processes, its automatic systems, the equipment reliability, and the human response. The current research on the framework, the ADS tool, and on Human Reliability Analysis issues within dynamic PSA, is discussed. (author)

  8. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nucler Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    The paper investigates applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented....

  9. Predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged priority junctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnen, S; Umar, R S Radin; Wong, S V; Wan Hashim, W I

    2003-12-01

    In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.

  10. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow...

  11. Multiscale Multiphysics Developments for Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamble, K. A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hales, J. D. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Yu, J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Zhang, Y. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bai, X. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Andersson, D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Patra, A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wen, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tome, C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baskes, M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Martinez, E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stanek, C. R. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Miao, Y. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Ye, B. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hofman, G. L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Yacout, A. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Liu, W. [ANATECH Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

    2015-09-01

    U3Si2 and iron-chromium-aluminum (Fe-Cr-Al) alloys are two of many proposed accident-tolerant fuel concepts for the fuel and cladding, respectively. The behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident reactor conditions is not well known. As part of the Department of Energy’s Accident Tolerant Fuel High Impact Problem program significant work has been conducted to investigate the U3Si2 and FeCrAl behavior under reactor conditions. This report presents the multiscale and multiphysics effort completed in fiscal year 2015. The report is split into four major categories including Density Functional Theory Developments, Molecular Dynamics Developments, Mesoscale Developments, and Engineering Scale Developments. The work shown here is a compilation of a collaborative effort between Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory and Anatech Corp.

  12. An Artificial Neural Network Model for Highway Accident Prediction: A Case Study of Erzurum, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Yasin Çodur

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an accident prediction model of Erzurum’s Highways in Turkey using artificial neural network (ANN approaches. There are many ANN models for predicting the number of accidents on highways that were developed using 8 years with 7,780 complete accident reports of historical data (2005-2012. The best ANN model was chosen for this task and the model parameters included years, highway sections, section length (km, annual average daily traffic (AADT, the degree of horizontal curvature, the degree of vertical curvature, traffic accidents with heavy vehicles (percentage, and traffic accidents that occurred in summer (percentage. In the ANN model development, the sigmoid activation function was employed with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The performance of the developed ANN model was evaluated by mean square error (MSE, the root mean square error (RMSE, and the coefficient of determination (R2. The model results indicate that the degree of vertical curvature is the most important parameter that affects the number of accidents on highways.

  13. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  14. BMX bicycles: accident comparison with other models.

    OpenAIRE

    1985-01-01

    A comparison has been made between BMX bicycle accidents and those occurring when children ride other types of bicycle. The injuries sustained are compared to see if the clinical impressions that BMX are more dangerous, and produce more facial injuries, are correct. This was found not to be true as half the children involved rode BMX bicycles, and the injuries sustained were similar to those occurring to non BMX riders. BMX riders had a lower proportion of serious injuries than riders of raci...

  15. Emergency control system based on the analytical hierarchy process and coordinated development degree model for sudden water pollution accidents in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Yan; Xu, Guobin; Ma, Chao; Chen, Liang

    2016-06-01

    Water transfer projects are important for realizing reasonable allocation of water resources, but once a water pollution accident occurs during such a project, the water environment is exposed to enormous risks. Therefore, it is critical to determine an appropriate emergency control system (ECS) for sudden water pollution accidents that occur in water transfer projects. In this study, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) integrated with the coordinated development degree model (CDDM) was used to develop the ECS. This ECS was developed into two parts, including the emergency risk assessment and the emergency control. Feasible emergency control targets and control technology were also proposed for different sudden water pollution accidents. A demonstrative project was conducted in the Fangshui to Puyang channel, which is part of the Beijing-Shijiazhuang Emergency Water Supply Project (BSP) in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MR-SNWTP) in China. However, we could not use an actual toxic soluble pollutant to validate our ECS, so we performed the experiment with sucrose to test the ECS based on its concentration variation. The relative error of peak sucrose concentration was less than 20 %.

  16. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model, has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the deposition of 137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations. The performance, compared to measurements, of different combinations of parameterizations of wet and dry deposition schemes has been evaluated, using different statistical tests.

  17. Estimation of traffic accident costs: a prompted model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, Rokhshad; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Radam, Alias; Rahim, Khalid Abdul; Ibrahim, Zelina Zaitun; Yazdani, Saeed

    2013-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.

  18. Development of Methodology for Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accident Analysis Using MELCOR Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Won-Tae; Shin, Jae-Uk [RETech. Co. LTD., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Kwang-Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The general reason why SFP severe accident analysis has to be considered is that there is a potential great risk due to the huge number of fuel assemblies and no containment in a SFP building. In most cases, the SFP building is vulnerable to external damage or attack. In contrary, low decay heat of fuel assemblies may make the accident processes slow compared to the accident in reactor core because of a great deal of water. In short, its severity of consequence cannot exclude the consideration of SFP risk management. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has performed the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accident. The Fukushima-Daiichi accident has accelerated the needs for the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accidents, causing the nuclear industry and regulatory bodies to reexamine several assumptions concerning beyond-design basis events such as a station blackout. The tsunami brought about the loss of coolant accident, leading to the explosion of hydrogen in the SFP building. Analyses of SFP accident processes in the case of a loss of coolant with no heat removal have studied. Few studies however have focused on a long term process of SFP severe accident under no mitigation action such as a water makeup to SFP. USNRC and OECD have co-worked to examine the behavior of PWR fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions in a spent fuel rack. In support of the investigation, several new features of MELCOR model have been added to simulate both BWR fuel assembly and PWR 17 x 17 assembly in a spent fuel pool rack undergoing severe accident conditions. The purpose of the study in this paper is to develop a methodology of the long-term analysis for the plant level SFP severe accident by using the new-featured MELCOR program in the OPR-1000 Nuclear Power Plant. The study is to investigate the ability of MELCOR in predicting an entire process of SFP severe accident phenomena including the molten corium and concrete reaction. The

  19. Research on the improvement of nuclear safety -The development of a severe accident analysis code-

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Heui Dong; Cho, Sung Won; Park, Jong Hwa; Hong, Sung Wan; Yoo, Dong Han; Hwang, Moon Kyoo; Noh, Kee Man; Song, Yong Man [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-07-01

    For prevention and mitigation of the containment failure during severe accident, the study is focused on the severe accident phenomena, especially, the ones occurring inside the cavity and is intended to improve existing models and develop analytical tools for the assessment of severe accidents. A correlation equation of the flame velocity of pre mixture gas of H{sub 2}/air/steam has been suggested and combustion flame characteristic was analyzed using a developed computer code. For the analysis of the expansion phase of vapor explosion, the mechanical model has been developed. The development of a debris entrainment model in a reactor cavity with captured volume has been continued to review and examine the limitation and deficiencies of the existing models. Pre-test calculation was performed to support the severe accident experiment for molten corium concrete interaction study and the crust formation process and heat transfer characteristics of the crust have been carried out. A stress analysis code was developed using finite element method for the reactor vessel lower head failure analysis. Through international program of PHEBUS-FP and participation in the software development, the research on the core degradation process and fission products release and transportation are undergoing. CONTAIN and MELCOR codes were continuously updated under the cooperation with USNRC and French developed computer codes such as ICARE2, ESCADRE, SOPHAEROS were also installed into the SUN workstation. 204 figs, 61 tabs, 87 refs. (Author).

  20. Development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Hong; Cheon, Moon Heon; Cho, Nam jin; No, Hui Cheon; Chang, Hyeon Seop; Moon, Sang Kee; Park, Seok Jeong; Chung, Jee Hwan [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1991-12-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in Nuclear Power Plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct individual plant examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident resistance. The scope and contents of this study are as follows : development of a system of computer codes for severe accident analyses, development of severe accident management strategy.

  1. Quantifying safety benefit of winter road maintenance: accident frequency modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usman, Taimur; Fu, Liping; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

    2010-11-01

    This research presents a modeling approach to investigate the association of the accident frequency during a snow storm event with road surface conditions, visibility and other influencing factors controlling for traffic exposure. The results have the premise to be applied for evaluating different maintenance strategies using safety as a performance measure. As part of this approach, this research introduces a road surface condition index as a surrogate measure of the commonly used friction measure to capture different road surface conditions. Data from various data sources, such as weather, road condition observations, traffic counts and accidents, are integrated and used to test three event-based models including the Negative Binomial model, the generalized NB model and the zero inflated NB model. These models are compared for their capability to explain differences in accident frequencies between individual snow storms. It was found that the generalized NB model best fits the data, and is most capable of capturing heterogeneity other than excess zeros. Among the main results, it was found that the road surface condition index was statistically significant influencing the accident occurrence. This research is the first showing the empirical relationship between safety and road surface conditions at a disaggregate level (event-based), making it feasible to quantify the safety benefits of alternative maintenance goals and methods.

  2. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree.

  3. Development of severe accident analysis code - A study on the molten core-concrete interaction under severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Chang Hyun; Lee, Byung Chul; Huh, Chang Wook; Kim, Doh Young; Kim, Ju Yeul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to understand the phenomena of the molten core/concrete interaction during the hypothetical severe accident, and to develop the model for heat transfer and physical phenomena in MCCIs. The contents of this study are analysis of mechanism in MCCIs and assessment of heat transfer models, evaluation of model in CORCON code and verification in CORCON using SWISS and SURC Experiments, and 1000 MWe PWR reactor cavity coolability, and establishment a model for prediction of the crust formation and temperature of melt-pool. The properties and flow condition of melt pool covering with the conditions of severe accident are used to evaluate the heat transfer coefficients in each reviewed model. Also, the scope and limitation of each model for application is assessed. A phenomenological analysis is performed with MELCOR 1.8.2 and MELCOR 1.8.3 And its results is compared with corresponding experimental reports of SWISS and SURC experiments. And the calculation is performed to assess the 1000 MWe PWR reactor cavity coolability. To improve the heat transfer model between melt-pool and overlying coolant and analyze the phase change of melt-pool, 2 dimensional governing equations are established using the enthalpy method and computational program is accomplished in this study. The benchmarking calculation is performed and its results are compared to the experiment which has not considered effects of the coolant boiling and the gas injection. Ultimately, the model shall be developed for considering the gas injection effect and coolant boiling effect. 66 refs., 10 tabs., 29 refs. (author)

  4. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-12-15

    This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in these appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.

  5. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  6. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  7. Development of system of computer codes for severe accident analysis and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, H. S.; Jeon, M. H.; Cho, N. J. and others [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-01-15

    The objectives of this study is to develop a system of computer codes for postulated severe accident analyses in nuclear power plants. This system of codes is necessary to conduct Individual Plant Examination for domestic nuclear power plants. As a result of this study, one can conduct severe accident assessments more easily, and can extract the plant-specific vulnerabilities for severe accidents and at the same time the ideas for enhancing overall accident-resistance. Severe accident can be mitigated by the proper accident management strategies. Some operator action for mitigation can lead to more disastrous result and thus uncertain severe accident phenomena must be well recognized. There must be further research for development of severe accident management strategies utilizing existing plant resources as well as new design concepts.

  8. Radiative heat transfer modelling in a PWR severe accident sequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magali Zabiego; Florian Fichot [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire - BP 3 - 13115 Saint-paul-Lez-Durance (France); Pablo Rubiolo [Westinghouse Science and Technology - 1344 Beulah Road - Pittsburgh - PA 15235 (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: The present study is devoted to the estimation of the radiative heat transfers during a severe accident sequence in a Pressurized Water Reactor. In such a situation, the residual nuclear power released by the fuel rods can not be evacuated and heats up the core. As a result, the cylindrical rods and the structures initially composing the core undergo a degradation process: swelling, breaking or melting of the rods and structures and eventual collapse to form a heap of fragments called a debris bed. As the solid matrix loses its original shape, the core geometry continuously evolves from standing, regularly-spaced cylinders to a non-homogeneous system including deformed remaining rods and structures and debris particles. To predict this type of sequence, the ICARE/CATHARE software [1] is developed by IRSN. Since the temperatures can reach values greater than 3000 K, it was of major interest to provide the code with an accurate radiative transfer model usable whatever the geometry of the system. Considering the size of a reactor core compared to the mean penetration length of radiation, the core can be seen as an optically thick medium. This observation led us to use the diffusion approximation to treat the radiation propagation. In this approach, the radiative flux is calculated in a way similar to thermal conduction: q{sub r} = [K{sub e}].{nabla}T where [K{sub e}] is the equivalent conductivity tensor of the system accounting for thermal and radiative transfer. An homogenization technique is applied to estimate the equivalent conductivity. Given the temperature level, the radiative contribution to the equivalent conductivity tensor quickly becomes dominant. This model was described earlier in [2] in which it was shown that an equivalent conductivity can be continuously calculated in the system when the geometry evolves from standing regular cylinder rods to swollen or broken ones, surrounded or not by a film of liquid materials, to

  9. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bui, V.A

    1998-10-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance 88 refs, 54 figs, 7 tabs

  10. Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

    2016-05-01

    Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings.

  11. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  12. An Evaluation Methodology Development and Application Process for Severe Accident Safety Issue Resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Martin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A general evaluation methodology development and application process (EMDAP paradigm is described for the resolution of severe accident safety issues. For the broader objective of complete and comprehensive design validation, severe accident safety issues are resolved by demonstrating comprehensive severe-accident-related engineering through applicable testing programs, process studies demonstrating certain deterministic elements, probabilistic risk assessment, and severe accident management guidelines. The basic framework described in this paper extends the top-down, bottom-up strategy described in the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 1.203 to severe accident evaluations addressing U.S. NRC expectation for plant design certification applications.

  13. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  14. A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNab, Ying C

    2003-01-01

    This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time

  15. Development of ultrasonic high temperature system for severe accidents research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, Kil Mo; Kang, Kyung Ho; Kim, Young Ro and others

    2000-07-01

    The aims of this study are to find a gap formation between corium melt and the reactor lower head vessel, to verify the principle of the gap formation and to analyze the effect of the gap formation on the thermal behavior of corium melt and the lower plenum. This report aims at suggesting development of a new high temperature measuring system using an ultrasonic method which overcomes the limitations of the present thermocouple method used for severe accident experiments. Also, this report describes the design and manufacturing method of the ultrasonic system. At that time, the sensor element is fabricated to a reflective element using 1mm diameter and 50 mm and 80 mm long tungsten alloy wires. This temperature measuring system is intended to measure up to 2800 deg C.

  16. A Study of The Relationship Between The Components of The Five-Factor Model of Personality and The Occurrence of Occupational Accidents in Industry Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsanollah Habibi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Accidents are among the most important problems of both the developed and the developing countries. Individual factors and personality traits are the primary causes of human errors and contribute to accidents. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the components of the five-factor model of personality and the occurrence of occupational accidents in industrial workers. The independent T-test indicated that there is a meaningful relationship between the personality traits and accident proneness. In the two groups of industry workers injured in occupational accidents and industry workers without any occupational accidents, there is a significant relationship between personality traits, neuroticism (p=0.001, openness to experience (p=0.001, extraversion (p=0.024 and conscientiousness (p=0.021. Nonetheless, concerning the personality trait of agreeableness (p = 0.09, the group of workers with accidents did not differ significantly from the workers without any accidents. The results showed that there is a direct and significant relationship between accident proneness and the personality traits of neuroticism and openness to experience. Furthermore, there is a meaningful but inverse correlation between accident proneness and the personality traits of extraversion and conscientiousness, while there was no relationship between accident proneness and the personality trait of agreeableness.

  17. Preliminary modeling of the TMI-2 accident with MELPROG-TRAC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenks, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    In support of Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)-sponsored Three Mile Island-Unit 2 (TMI-2) Analysis Exercise studies, work has been performed to develop a simulation model of the TMI-2 plant for use with the integrated MELPROG-TRAC computer code. Numerous nuclear power plant simulation studies have been performed with the TRAC computer code in the past. Some of these addressed the TMI-2 accident or other hypothetical events at the TMI plant. In addition, studies have been previously performed with the MELPROG-TRAC code using Oconee-1 and Surry plant models. This paper describes the preliminary MELPROG-TRAC input model for severe accident analysis.

  18. Development of LWR Fuels with Enhanced Accident Tolerance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahoda, Edward J. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, Cranberry Woods, PA (United States); Boylan, Frank A. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, Cranberry Woods, PA (United States)

    2015-10-30

    Significant progress was made on the technical, licensing, and business aspects of the Westinghouse Electric Company’s Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) by the Westinghouse ATF team. The fuel pellet options included waterproofed U15N and U3Si2 and the cladding options SiC composites and zirconium alloys with surface treatments. Technology was developed that resulted in U3Si2 pellets with densities of >94% being achieved at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The use of U3Si2 will represent a 15% increase in U235 loadings over those in UO₂ fuel pellets. This technology was then applied to manufacture pellets for 6 test rodlets which were inserted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in early 2015 in zirconium alloy cladding. The first of these rodlets are expected to be removed in about 2017. Key characteristics to be determined include verification of the centerline temperature calculations, thermal conductivity, fission gas release, swelling and degree of amorphization. Waterproofed UN pellets have achieved >94% density for a 32% U3Si2/68% UN composite pellet at Texas A&M University. This represents a U235 increase of about 31% over current UO2 pellets. Pellets and powders of UO2, UN, and U3Si2the were tested by Westinghouse and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) using differential scanning calorimetry to determine what their steam and 20% oxygen corrosion temperatures were as compared to UO2. Cold spray application of either the amorphous steel or the Ti2AlC was successful in forming an adherent ~20 micron coating that remained after testing at 420°C in a steam autoclave. Tests at 1200°C in 100% steam on coatings for Zr alloy have not been successful, possibly due to the low density of the coatings which allowed steam transport to the base zirconium metal. Significant modeling and testing

  19. Global atmospheric dispersion modelling after the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, K.S.; Youm, M.K.; Lee, B.G.; Min, B.I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Korea, Republic of); Raul, P. [Universidad de Sevilla (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    A large amount of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere due to the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The radioactive materials released into the atmosphere were mostly transported to the Pacific Ocean, but some of them were fallen on the surface due to dry and wet depositions in the northwest area from the Fukushima nuclear site. Therefore, northwest part of the nuclear site was seriously contaminated and it was designated with the restricted zone within a radius of 20 ∼ 30 km around the Fukushima nuclear site. In the early phase of the accident from 11 March to 30 March, the radioactive materials were dispersed to an area of the inland and offshore of the nuclear site by the variations of the wind. After the Fukushima accident, the radionuclides were detected through the air monitoring in the many places over the world. The radioactive plume was transported to the east part off the site by the westerly jet stream. It had detected in the North America during March 17-21, in European countries during March 23-24, and in Asia during from March 24 to April 6, 2011. The radioactive materials were overall detected across the northern hemisphere passed by 15 ∼ 20 days after the accident. Three dimensional numerical model was applied to evaluate the dispersion characteristics of the radionuclides released into the air. Simulated results were compared with measurements in many places over the world. Comparative results had good agreements in some places, but they had a little differences in some locations. The difference between the calculations and measurements are due to the meteorological data and relatively coarse resolutions in the model. Some radioactive materials were measured in Philippines, Taiwan, Hon Kong and South Korea during from March 23-28. It inferred that it was directly transported from the Fukushima by the northeastern monsoon winds. This event was well represented in the numerical model. Generally, the simulations had a good

  20. Prevaba: a Bayesian Model to Predict the Existence of Victims in car accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TELLES, M.J.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Road safety is an area which is concerned with both the reduction of accidents as with the care provided to the victims. Several initiatives are proposed to assist with reducing the number of accidents, such as surveillance, awareness campaigns and support equipment to drivers. Other initiatives for prevention and protection are proposed by vehicle manufacturers in terms of requirements of governament entities. As a final resort, that is, in the event of the accident and the victim needs medical attention, this should be done as quickly as possible. To assist in identifying the existence of the victim and the need for medical care, we propose a Bayesian model, called Prevaba, which uses Bayesian Networks (BN, which aims to predict the existence of victims in traffic accidents. In order to validate the model, we developed a prototype that performed the actual data classification in Porto Alegre - RS for the year 2013. The prototype made the classification based on the previous year's data (2012, showing an index above 90% accuracy, taking into account the incorrect classications are only classified as victimless, but actually was has a victim.

  1. BRAIN INJURY BIOMECHANICS IN REAL WORLD VEHICLE ACCIDENT USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jikuang; XU Wei; OTTE Dietmar

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims at investigating brain injury mechanisms and predicting head injuries in real world accidents. For this purpose, a 3D human head finite element model (HBM-head) was developed based on head-brain anatomy. The HBM head model was validated with two experimental tests. Then the head finite element(FE) model and a multi-body system (MBS) model were used to carry out reconstructions of real world vehicle-pedestrian accidents and brain injuries. The MBS models were used for calculating the head impact conditions in vehicle impacts. The HBM-head model was used for calculating the injury related physical parameters, such as intracranial pressure, stress, and strain. The calculated intracranial pressure and strain distribution were correlated with the injury outcomes observed from accidents. It is shown that this model can predict the intracranial biomechanical response and calculate the injury related physical parameters. The head FE model has good biofidelity and will be a valuable tool for the study of injury mechanisms and the tolerance level of the brain.

  2. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code main features, current V2.0 modelling status, perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chatelard, P., E-mail: patrick.chatelard@irsn.fr [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PSN-RES, B.250, Cadarache BP3 13115, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France); Reinke, N.; Arndt, S. [Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50677 Köln (Germany); Belon, S.; Cantrel, L.; Carenini, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Cousin, F. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PSN-RES, B.250, Cadarache BP3 13115, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France); Eckel, J. [Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50677 Köln (Germany); Jacq, F.; Marchetto, C.; Mun, C.; Piar, L. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PSN-RES, B.250, Cadarache BP3 13115, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France)

    2014-06-01

    The severe accident integral code ASTEC, jointly developed since almost 20 years by IRSN and GRS, simulates the behaviour of a whole nuclear power plant under severe accident conditions, including severe accident management by engineering systems and procedures. Since 2004, the ASTEC code is progressively becoming the reference European severe accident integral code through in particular the intensification of research activities carried out in the frame of the SARNET European network of excellence. The first version of the new series ASTEC V2 was released in 2009 to about 30 organizations worldwide and in particular to SARNET partners. With respect to the previous V1 series, this new V2 series includes advanced core degradation models (issued from the ICARE2 IRSN mechanistic code) and necessary extensions to be applicable to Gen. III reactor designs, notably a description of the core catcher component to simulate severe accidents transients applied to the EPR reactor. Besides these two key-evolutions, most of the other physical modules have also been improved and ASTEC V2 is now coupled to the SUNSET statistical tool to make easier the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The ASTEC models are today at the state of the art (in particular fission product models with respect to source term evaluation), except for quenching of a severely damage core. Beyond the need to develop an adequate model for the reflooding of a degraded core, the main other mean-term objectives are to further progress on the on-going extension of the scope of application to BWR and CANDU reactors, to spent fuel pool accidents as well as to accidents in both the ITER Fusion facility and Gen. IV reactors (in priority on sodium-cooled fast reactors) while making ASTEC evolving towards a severe accident simulator constitutes the main long-term objective. This paper presents the status of the ASTEC V2 versions, focussing on the description of V2.0 models for water-cooled nuclear plants.

  3. Application of Gray Markov SCGM(1,1) c Model to Prediction of Accidents Deaths in Coal Mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Jian-Yi; Zhou, Ying

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of mine accident is the basis of aviation safety assessment and decision making. Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data, short time, and little fluctuation, and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. Analyzing the coal mine accident human error cause, combining the advantages of both Gray prediction and Markov theory, an amended Gray Markov SCGM(1,1) c model is proposed. The gray SCGM(1,1) c model is applied to imitate the development tendency of the mine safety accident, and adopt the amended model to improve prediction accuracy, while Markov prediction is used to predict the fluctuation along the tendency. Finally, the new model is applied to forecast the mine safety accident deaths from 1990 to 2010 in China, and, 2011-2014 coal accidents deaths were predicted. The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the mine human error accident death toll but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision. It possesses stronger engineering application.

  4. ATMOSPHERIC MODELING IN SUPPORT OF A ROADWAY ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R.; Hunter, C.

    2010-10-21

    The United States Forest Service-Savannah River (USFS) routinely performs prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. This facility covers {approx}800 square kilometers and is mainly wooded except for scattered industrial areas containing facilities used in managing nuclear materials for national defense and waste processing. Prescribed fires of forest undergrowth are necessary to reduce the risk of inadvertent wild fires which have the potential to destroy large areas and threaten nuclear facility operations. This paper discusses meteorological observations and numerical model simulations from a period in early 2002 of an incident involving an early-morning multicar accident caused by poor visibility along a major roadway on the northern border of the SRS. At the time of the accident, it was not clear if the limited visibility was due solely to fog or whether smoke from a prescribed burn conducted the previous day just to the northwest of the crash site had contributed to the visibility. Through use of available meteorological information and detailed modeling, it was determined that the primary reason for the low visibility on this night was fog induced by meteorological conditions.

  5. Dynamic modelling of radionuclide uptake by marine biota: application to the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vives i Batlle, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    The dynamic model D-DAT was developed to study the dynamics of radionuclide uptake and turnover in biota and sediments in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima accident. This dynamics is determined by the interplay between the residence time of radionuclides in seawater/sediments and the biological half-lives of elimination by the biota. The model calculates time-variable activity concentration of (131)I, (134)Cs, (137)Cs and (90)Sr in seabed sediment, fish, crustaceans, molluscs and macroalgae from surrounding activity concentrations in seawater, with which to derive internal and external dose rates. A central element of the model is the inclusion of dynamic transfer of radionuclides to/from sediments by factorising the depletion of radionuclides adsorbed onto suspended particulates, molecular diffusion, pore water mixing and bioturbation, represented by a simple set of differential equations coupled with the biological uptake/turnover processes. In this way, the model is capable of reproducing activity concentration in sediment more realistically. The model was used to assess the radiological impact of the Fukushima accident on marine biota in the acute phase of the accident. Sediment and biota activity concentrations are within the wide range of actual monitoring data. Activity concentrations in marine biota are thus shown to be better calculated by a dynamic model than with the simpler equilibrium approach based on concentration factors, which tends to overestimate for the acute accident period. Modelled dose rates from external exposure from sediment are also significantly below equilibrium predictions. The model calculations confirm previous studies showing that radioactivity levels in marine biota have been generally below the levels necessary to cause a measurable effect on populations. The model was used in mass-balance mode to calculate total integrated releases of 103, 30 and 3 PBq for (131)I, (137)Cs and (90)Sr, reasonably in line with previous

  6. Modeling and Simulation of Release of Radiation in Flow Blockage Accident for Two Loops PWR

    OpenAIRE

    Khurram Mehboob; Cao Xinrong; Majid Ali

    2012-01-01

    In this study modeling and simulation of release of radiation form two loops PWR has been carried out for flow blockage accident. For this purpose, a MATLAB based program “Source Term Evaluator for Flow Blockage Accident” (STEFBA) has been developed, which uses the core inventory as its primary input. The TMI-2 reactor is considered as the reference plant for this study. For 1100 reactor operation days, the core inventory has been evaluated under the core design constrains at average reactor ...

  7. Analysis of traffic accident size for Korean highway using structural equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju-Yeon; Chung, Jin-Hyuk; Son, Bongsoo

    2008-11-01

    Accident size can be expressed as the number of involved vehicles, the number of damaged vehicles, the number of deaths and/or the number of injured. Accident size is the one of the important indices to measure the level of safety of transportation facilities. Factors such as road geometric condition, driver characteristic and vehicle type may be related to traffic accident size. However, all these factors interact in complicate ways so that the interrelationships among the variables are not easily identified. A structural equation model is adopted to capture the complex relationships among variables because the model can handle complex relationships among endogenous and exogenous variables simultaneously and furthermore it can include latent variables in the model. In this study, we use 2649 accident data occurred on highways in Korea and estimate relationship among exogenous factors and traffic accident size. The model suggests that road factors, driver factors and environment factors are strongly related to the accident size.

  8. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model, has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the total deposition of  137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations for dry- and wet deposition. The performance, compared to measurements, of using different combinations of two different wet deposition parameterizations and three different parameterizations of dry deposition has been evaluated, using different statistical tests. The best model performance, compared to measurements, is obtained when parameterizing the total deposition combined of a simple method for dry deposition and a subgrid-scale averaging scheme for wet deposition based on relative humidities. The same major conclusion is obtained for all the three different radioactive isotopes and using two different deposition measurement databases. Large differences are seen in the results obtained by using the two different parameterizations of wet deposition based on precipitation rates and relative humidities, respectively. The parameterization based on subgrid-scale averaging is, in all cases, performing better than the parameterization based on precipitation rates. This indicates that the in-cloud scavenging process is more important than the below cloud scavenging process for the submicron particles and that the precipitation rates are

  9. Development of MPS Method for Analyzing Melt Spreading Behavior and MCCI in Severe Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaji, Akifumi; Li, Xin

    2016-08-01

    Spreading of molten core (corium) on reactor containment vessel floor and molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) are important phenomena in the late phase of a severe accident for assessment of the containment integrity and managing the severe accident. The severe accident research at Waseda University has been advancing to show that simulations with moving particle semi-implicit (MPS) method (one of the particle methods) can greatly improve the analytical capability and mechanical understanding of the melt behavior in severe accidents. MPS models have been developed and verified regarding calculations of radiation and thermal field, solid-liquid phase transition, buoyancy, and temperature dependency of viscosity to simulate phenomena, such as spreading of corium, ablation of concrete by the corium, crust formation and cooling of the corium by top flooding. Validations have been conducted against experiments such as FARO L26S, ECOKATS-V1, Theofanous, and SPREAD for spreading, SURC-2, SURC-4, SWISS-1, and SWISS-2 for MCCI. These validations cover melt spreading behaviors and MCCI by mixture of molten oxides (including prototypic UO2-ZrO2), metals, and water. Generally, the analytical results show good agreement with the experiment with respect to the leading edge of spreading melt and ablation front history of concrete. The MPS results indicate that crust formation may play important roles in melt spreading and MCCI. There is a need to develop a code for two dimensional MCCI experiment simulation with MPS method as future study, which will be able to simulate anisotropic ablation of concrete.

  10. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

    2013-12-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues.

  11. Study of the Severity of Accidents in Tehran Using Statistical Modeling and Data Mining Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesamaldin Razi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available AbstractBackgrounds and Aims: The Tehran province was subject to the second highest incidence of fatalities due to traffic accidents in 1390. Most studies in this field examine rural traffic accidents, but this study is based on the use of logit models and artificial neural networks to evaluate the factors that affect the severity of accidents within the city of Tehran.Materials and Methods: Among the various types of crashes, head-on collisions are specified as the most serious type, which is investigated in this study with the use of Tehran’s accident data. In the modeling process, the severity of the accident is the dependent variable and defined as a binary covariate, which are non-injury accidents and injury accidents. The independent variables are parameters such as the characteristics of the driver, time of the accident, traffic and environmental characteristics. In addition to the prediction accuracy comparison of the two models, the elasticity of the logit model is compared with a sensitivity analysis of the neural network.Results: The results show that the proposed model provides a good estimate of an accident's severity. The explanatory variables that have been determined to be significant in the final models are the driver’s gender, age and education, along with negligence of the traffic rules, inappropriate acceleration, deviation to the left, type of vehicle, pavement conditions, time of the crash and street width.Conclusion: An artificial neural network model can be useful as a statistical model in the analysis of factors that affect the severity of accidents. According to the results, human errors and illiteracy of drivers increase the severity of crashes, and therefore, educating drivers is the main strategy that will reduce accident severity in Iran. Special attention should be given to a driver’s age group, with particular care taken when they are very young.

  12. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  13. Study on Developments in Accident Investigation Methods: A Survey of the 'State-of-the-Art'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, Erik; Speziali, Josephine (Ecole des Mines de Paris, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France))

    2008-01-15

    The objective of this project was to survey the main accident investigation methods that have been developed since the early or mid-1990s. The motivation was the increasing frequency of accidents that defy explanations in simple terms, for instance cause-effect chains or 'human error'. Whereas the complexity of socio-technical systems is steadily growing across all industrial domains, including nuclear power production, accident investigation methods are only updated when their inability to account for novel types of accidents and incidents becomes inescapable. Accident investigation methods therefore typically lag behind the socio-technological developments by 20 years or more. The project first compiled a set of methods from the recognised scientific literature and in major major research and development programs, excluding methods limited to risk assessment, technological malfunctions, human reliability, and safety management methods. An initial set of 21 methods was further reduced to seven by retaining only prima facie accident investigation methods and avoiding overlapping or highly similar methods. The second step was to develop a set of criteria used to characterise the methods. The starting point was Perrow's description of normal accidents in socio-technical systems, which used the dimensions of coupling, going from loose to tight, and interactions, going from linear to complex. For practical reasons, the second dimension was changed to that of tractability or how easy it is to describe the system, where the sub-criteria are the level of detail, the availability of an articulated model, and the system dynamics. On this basis the seven selected methods were characterised in terms of the systems - or conditions - they could account for, leading to the following four groups: methods suitable for systems that are loosely coupled and tractable, methods suitable for systems that are tightly coupled and tractable, methods suitable for systems that

  14. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  15. Development of auditing technology for accident analysis of SMART-P

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B. D.; Kim, H. C.; Bae, K. H.; Lee, Y. J.; Chung, Y. J.; Jeong, J. J. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-06-15

    The objective of this project is to develop thermal hydraulic models of the regulatory auditing codes for the application of SMART-P integrated reactor. The current year fall under the first step of the 3 year project, and the main researches were focused on identifying the candidate thermal hydraulic models for improvement. Well known PIRT methodology has been applied to identify model improvement items. As a part of PIRT process, the identification of SMART-P system and compenent has been performed. The scenario of each key accident and phenonema have been identified. To identify SMART-P thermal-hydraulic characteristics, preliminary calculation has been performed and identify the applicability and inprovement items of current auditing code, RELAP5.

  16. Logit Model of Motorcycle Accidents in the Philippines Considering Personal and Environmental Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary R. Seva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to determine significant personal and environmental variables in predicting motorcycle accidents in the Philippines, compare the results with findings in other countries, and propose possible government interventions. Data were gathered from 177 participants through the use of a survey in a licensing center in the largest city in Metro Manila. Logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of an accident from variables considered in the model. Three variables were found to be significant predictors of motorcycle accidents: age, driving behavior, and junction type. Younger drivers are more likely to be involved in accidents. The significance of age was unexpected because similar models found this to be insignificant. Driving behavior, specifically, committing violation predicts accident likelihood. Driving at t- and y-junctions also predicts motorcycle accidents. In the Philippines, a unique set of variables were found to predict motorcycle accidents. Although previous studies have established the effect of these variables to accident likelihood, the combination was unforeseen. Government agencies can focus on interventions directed at these three variables.

  17. Development of a three-dimensional model and calculation code for the packed bed simulation for safety analyses of severe reactor accidents; Entwicklung eines dreidimensionalen Modells und Rechencodes zur Simulation von Schuettbetten fuer Sicherheitsanalysen von schweren Reaktorstoerfaellen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berkhan, Ana; Starflinger, Joerg [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Kernenergetik und Energiesysteme (IKE)

    2013-07-01

    The computer code MEWA is used for the description of severe accident sequences in light-water reactors. During the reactor accident with core disruption the solidified core fragments are displaced into the lower plenum of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) or in case of RPV failure into the water filled reactor sump. For the progress or cessation of the severe accident the cooling of the packed bed is of main importance. With the 3D version of the code it is possible to study spatially complex packed beds with respect to their coolability. Further extension of the MEWA code will include the optimization for the improvement of the calculation efficiency and reduction of computation time. The validation will be performed by re-calculation of experiments (for instance DEBRIS experiments at the IKE) and the comparison with results of the 2D version.

  18. A Report of the Joint Development of a Prototype Communications Link to Share Nuclear Accident Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modeling Products Between JAERI/WSPEEDI and LLNL/NARAC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T J; Belles, R D; Ellis, J S; Chino, M; Nagai, H

    2001-05-01

    In June of 1997, under an umbrella Memorandum of Understanding between the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and the U.S. Department of Energy (US/DOE) concerning matters of nuclear research and development, a Specific Memorandum of Agreement (SMA) entitled ''A Collaborative Programme of Development of a Prototype Communication Link to Share Atmospheric Dispersion and Dose Assessment Modelling Products'' was signed. This SMA formalized an informal collaborative exchange between the DOE's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) center and the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) Worldwide System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI). The intended objective of this agreement was to explore various modes of information exchange, beyond facsimile transmission, which could provide for the quick exchange of information between two major nuclear emergency dose assessment and prediction national centers to provide consistency checks and data exchange before public release of their calculations. The extreme sensitivity of the general public to any nuclear accident information has been a strong motivation to seek peer preview prior to public release. Other intended objectives of this work are the development of an affordable/accessible system for distribution of prediction results to other countries having no prediction capabilities and utilization of the link for collaboration studies. To fulfill the objectives of this project JAERI and LLNL scientists determined to assess the evolving Internet and rapidly emerging communications application software. Our timing was a little early in 1997-1998 but nonetheless a few candidate software packages were found, evaluated and a selection was made for initial test and evaluation. Subsequently several new candidate software packages have arrived, albeit with limitations. This report outlines the ARAC and

  19. Development of Auditing Technology for Accident Analysis of SMART-P

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B. D.; Lee, Y. J.; Jeong, J. J.; Kim, H. C.; Chung, Y. J.; Bae, K. H

    2006-02-15

    The objective of this project is to develop thermal hydraulic models of the regulatory auditing codes for the application of SMART-P integrated reactor. At initial period, PIRT has been performed to identify the model deficiencies and determine the priority of model improvements. The identified thermal hydraulic models has been implemented to RELAP5/MOD3.3 auditing code according to the PIRT ranking. The input model for SMART-P has been developed with consistent to the current design status documents and checked by independent reviewer as Q/A procedure.The evaluation of experimental availabilities and code collapsible has been done by expert group and summarized as validation matrix forms. The experimental data of VISTA, which is the only integral effect test facility, were used to validate the improved model. The safety analysis has been demonstrated for the essential accident scenario. The validation and demonstration show that the developed models are applicable to utilize in reliable and independent auditing for SMART design certification.

  20. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  1. Skills development at a paramedic accident simulation centre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaghy, John

    2016-02-01

    Practice simulation in acute and pre-hospital care settings is a growing area of interest for clinicians and health educationalists, and there is much evidence to support its use (Pike and O'Donnell 2010). Most simulation is delivered through computer-aided software or in virtual environments, however last year the University of Hertfordshire opened an accident simulation centre which is an outdoor facility that offers pre- and post-registration paramedics the opportunity to experience a range of scenarios in a 'real life' but secure environment. This article describes how the centre enables students to apply theory to practice in complex situations, such as managing patients injured in road traffic collisions.

  2. Speed Spatial Distribution Models for Traffic Accident Section of Freeway Based on Computer Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Decai Li; Jiangwei Chu; Wenhui Zhang; Xiaojuan Wang; Guosheng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Simulation models for accident section on freeway are built in microscopic traffic flow simulation environment. In these models involving 2⁃lane, 3⁃lane and 4⁃lane freeway, one detector is set every 10 m to measure section running speed. According to the simulation results, speed spatial distribution curves for traffic accident section on freeway are drawn which help to determine dangerous sections on upstream of accident section. Furthermore, the speed spatial distribution models are obtained for every speed distribution curve. The results provide theoretical basis for determination on temporal and spatial influence ranges of traffic accident and offer reference to formulation of speed limit scheme and other management measures.

  3. Development of the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of nuclear power plant severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naitoh, Masanori; Ujita, Hiroshi; Nagumo, Hiroichi [Nuclear Power Corp. (Japan)] [and others

    1997-07-01

    The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) has initiated a long-term program to develop the simulation system {open_quotes}IMPACT{close_quotes} for analysis of hypothetical severe accidents in nuclear power plants. IMPACT employs advanced methods of physical modeling and numerical computation, and can simulate a wide spectrum of senarios ranging from normal operation to hypothetical, beyond-design-basis-accident events. Designed as a large-scale system of interconnected, hierarchical modules, IMPACT`s distinguishing features include mechanistic models based on first principles and high speed simulation on parallel processing computers. The present plan is a ten-year program starting from 1993, consisting of the initial one-year of preparatory work followed by three technical phases: Phase-1 for development of a prototype system; Phase-2 for completion of the simulation system, incorporating new achievements from basic studies; and Phase-3 for refinement through extensive verification and validation against test results and available real plant data.

  4. Research and development with regard to severe accidents in pressurised water reactors: Summary and outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    .3), FP transport in the primary and the secondary circuit (7.2), aerosol behaviour in the containment (7.4) and FP chemistry (7.5). Finally, Chapter 8 presents a review of development and validation efforts for the main severe accident codes: ASTEC, MAAP and MELCOR. In Chapters 3-7, for each of the theme areas, the phenomena involved are reviewed. The major relevant experiments are then briefly described, including recent, ongoing and future projects. The key models and specific codes (except for integral codes) used to simulate the phenomena in question are also discussed. Finally, the state of current knowledge is reviewed and an outlook for the future is presented, especially regarding experimental programmes and the development of modelling tools. (authors)

  5. A Quasi-Poisson Approach on Modeling Accident Hazard Index for Urban Road Segments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In light of the recently emphasized studies on risk evaluation of crashes, accident counts under specific transportation facilities are adopted to reflect the chance of crash occurrence. The current study introduces more comprehensive measure with the supplement information of accidental harmfulness into the expression of accident risks which are also named Accident Hazard Index (AHI in the following context. Before the statistical analysis, datasets from various sources are integrated under a GIS platform and the corresponding procedures are presented as an illustrated example for similar analysis. Then, a quasi-Poisson regression model is suggested for analyses and the results show that the model is appropriate for dealing with overdispersed count data and several key explanatory variables were found to have significant impact on the estimation of AHI. In addition, the effect of weight on different severity levels of accidents is examined and the selection of the weight is also discussed.

  6. A source term estimation method for a nuclear accident using atmospheric dispersion models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Minsik; Ohba, Ryohji; Oura, Masamichi

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop an operational source term estimation (STE) method applicable for a nuclear accident like the incident that occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in 2011. The new STE method presented here is based on data from atmospheric dispersion...... models and short-range observational data around the nuclear power plants.The accuracy of this method is validated with data from a wind tunnel study that involved a tracer gas release from a scaled model experiment at Tokai Daini nuclear power station in Japan. We then use the methodology developed...... and validated through the effort described in this manuscript to estimate the release rate of radioactive material from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station....

  7. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heames, T.J. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Williams, D.A.; Johns, N.A.; Chown, N.M. (UKAEA Atomic Energy Establishment, Winfrith (UK)); Bixler, N.E.; Grimley, A.J. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Wheatley, C.J. (UKAEA Safety and Reliability Directorate, Culcheth (UK))

    1990-10-01

    This document provides a description of a model of the radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident. This document serves as the user's manual for the computer code called VICTORIA, based upon the model. The VICTORIA code predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions between fission products and structural materials, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. This document provides a detailed description of each part of the implementation of the model into VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided. The VICTORIA code was developed upon a CRAY-XMP at Sandia National Laboratories in the USA and a CRAY-2 and various SUN workstations at the Winfrith Technology Centre in England. 60 refs.

  8. Development of accident management technology and computer codes -A study for nuclear safety improvement-

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Chang Kyu; Jae, Moo Sung; Jo, Young Gyun; Park, Rae Jun; Kim, Jae Hwan; Ha, Jae Ju; Kang, Dae Il; Choi, Sun Young; Kim, Si Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Res. Inst., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-07-01

    We have surveyed new technologies and research results for the accident management of nuclear power plants. And, based on the concept of using the existing plant capabilities for accident management, both in-vessel and ex-vessel strategies were identified and analyzed. When assessing accident management strategies, their effectiveness, adverse effects, and their feasibility must be considered. We have developed a framework for assessing the strategies with these factors in mind. We have applied the developed framework to assessing the strategies, including the likelihood that the operator correctly diagnoses the situation and successfully implements the strategies. Finally, the cavity flooding strategy was assessed by applying it to the station blackout sequence, which have been identified as one of the major contributors to risk at the reference plant. The thermohydraulic analyses with sensitivity calculations have been performed using MAAP 4 computer code. (Author).

  9. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  10. Development of a multi-criteria decision tool for remediation after a nuclear or radiological accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luca, Christiano de; Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Ferreira, Nadya M.P.D., E-mail: christiano_luca@hotmail.com, E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com, E-mail: nadya@ime.eb.br [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The review of accidents involving Nuclear Power Plants or facilities that use or process radioactive sources have raised issues related to the decision-making processes and to the procedures used to reestablish the normal living conditions in the affected areas. Due to the large complexity of the decision processes after accidents, a multi-criteria approach has been recommended to support the choice among the several procedures that may improve the environmental conditions. As part of the process of developing a multi-criteria decision support tool, a questionnaire was created to be fulfilled by experts to derive the relevance of the technical criteria to be considered in the model. At this stage, only the technical criteria related to radiation protection of the public will be focused; legal aspects, costs and public opinion, although relevant in the decision-making process, are beyond the scope of this work. The questionnaire contains 12 questions, each containing 5 degrees of importance. The answers are statically analyzed to generate a multiplicative factor to be included in the multicriteria model. To facilitate the process of distributing the questionnaire to the selected experts and then for a better processing and ordering of the information gathered, a program based on the Hypertext Preprocessor language (PHP) was created; this methodology has been chosen because of its compatibility and security in existing operating systems. The relevance rank showed the long-term dose reduction and the generation of wastes as the most relevant aspects to be considered in selecting remediation strategies for a contaminated area. (author)

  11. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code: Fission product modelling and validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cantrel, L., E-mail: laurent.cantrel@irsn.fr; Cousin, F.; Bosland, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Marchetto, C.

    2014-06-01

    One main goal of the severe accident integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed since almost more than 15 years by IRSN and GRS, is to simulate the overall behaviour of fission products (FP) in a damaged nuclear facility. ASTEC applications are source term determinations, level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA2) studies including the determination of uncertainties, accident management studies and physical analyses of FP experiments to improve the understanding of the phenomenology. ASTEC is a modular code and models of a part of the phenomenology are implemented in each module: the release of FPs and structural materials from degraded fuel in the ELSA module; the transport through the reactor coolant system approximated as a sequence of control volumes in the SOPHAEROS module; and the radiochemistry inside the containment nuclear building in the IODE module. Three other modules, CPA, ISODOP and DOSE, allow respectively computing the deposition rate of aerosols inside the containment, the activities of the isotopes as a function of time, and the gaseous dose rate which is needed to model radiochemistry in the gaseous phase. In ELSA, release models are semi-mechanistic and have been validated for a wide range of experimental data, and noticeably for VERCORS experiments. For SOPHAEROS, the models can be divided into two parts: vapour phase phenomena and aerosol phase phenomena. For IODE, iodine and ruthenium chemistry are modelled based on a semi-mechanistic approach, these FPs can form some volatile species and are particularly important in terms of potential radiological consequences. The models in these 3 modules are based on a wide experimental database, resulting for a large part from international programmes, and they are considered at the state of the art of the R and D knowledge. This paper illustrates some FPs modelling capabilities of ASTEC and computed values are compared to some experimental results, which are parts of the validation matrix.

  12. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heams, T J [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, D A; Johns, N A; Mason, A [UKAEA, Winfrith, (England); Bixler, N E; Grimley, A J [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheatley, C J [UKAEA, Culcheth (England); Dickson, L W [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON (Canada); Osborn-Lee, I [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Domagala, P; Zawadzki, S; Rest, J [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Alexander, C A [Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States); Lee, R Y [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided.

  13. Possibility of the development of a Serbian protection system against chemical accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan R. Inđić

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a draft of a system model for responding in case of chemical accidents in accordance with the current legislation regarding the environment protection, the structure and elements of the existing response system in case of chemical accidents, other works dealing with the issue as well as the prospects planned by those responsible for the environmental protection. The paper discuss the possibilities of different institutions and agencies of the Republic of Serbia to engage in specialized methods of cooperation and protection against chemical hazards in accordance with Article X of the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

  14. Influence of main variables modifications on accident transient based on AP1000-like MELCOR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, M.; Pieńkowski, L.

    2016-09-01

    Analysis of Severe Accidents (SA) is one of the most important parts of nuclear safety researches. MELCOR is a validated system code for severe accident analysis and as such it was used to obtain presented results. Analysed AP1000 model is based on publicly available data only. Sensitivity analysis was done for the main variables of primary reactor coolant system to find their influence on accident transient. This kind of analysis helps to find weak points of reactor design and the model itself. Performed analysis is a base for creation of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) generic model which will be the next step of the investigation aiming to estimate safety level of different reactors. Results clearly help to establish a range of boundary conditions for main the variables in future SMR model.

  15. Developing a Minimum Data Set for an Information Management System to Study Traffic Accidents in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Ali; Ahmadi, Maryam; Gharagozlu, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background: Each year, around 1.2 million people die in the road traffic incidents. Reducing traffic accidents requires an exact understanding of the risk factors associated with traffic patterns and behaviors. Properly analyzing these factors calls for a comprehensive system for collecting and processing accident data. Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a minimum data set (MDS) for an information management system to study traffic accidents in Iran. Materials and Methods: This descriptive, cross-sectional study was performed in 2014. Data were collected from the traffic police, trauma centers, medical emergency centers, and via the internet. The investigated resources for this study were forms, databases, and documents retrieved from the internet. Forms and databases were identical, and one sample of each was evaluated. The related internet-sourced data were evaluated in their entirety. Data were collected using three checklists. In order to arrive at a consensus about the data elements, the decision Delphi technique was applied using questionnaires. The content validity and reliability of the questionnaires were assessed by experts’ opinions and the test-retest method, respectively. Results: An (MDS) of a traffic accident information management system was assigned to three sections: a minimum data set for traffic police with six classes, including 118 data elements; a trauma center with five data classes, including 57 data elements; and a medical emergency center, with 11 classes, including 64 data elements. Conclusions: Planning for the prevention of traffic accidents requires standardized data. As the foundation for crash prevention efforts, existing standard data infrastructures present policymakers and government officials with a great opportunity to strengthen and integrate existing accident information systems to better track road traffic injuries and fatalities. PMID:27247791

  16. Development of the source term PIRT based on findings during Fukushima Daiichi NPPs accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suehiro, Shoichi, E-mail: suehiro-shouichi@tepsys.co.jp [TEPCO SYSTEMS Co., 2-37-28 Eitai, Koto-Ku, Tokyo 135-0034 (Japan); Sugimoto, Jun [Kyoto University, Yoshida Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan); Hidaka, Akihide [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan); Okada, Hidetoshi [The Institute of Applied Energy, 14-2 Nishi-Shimbashi 1-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003 (Japan); Mizokami, Shinya [Tokyo Electric Power Company, 1-3 Uchisaiwai-cho 1-Chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8560 (Japan); Okamoto, Koji [The University of Tokyo, 2-22 Shirakata, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki 319-1188 (Japan)

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • We developed the source term PIRT based on findings during the Fukushima accident. • The FoM is the masses or fractions of radionuclides released into the environment. • 68 phenomena were identified as influencing to the FoM. • Radionuclide release from molten fuel had the highest score in the early phase. • MCCI, iodine chemistry, and chemical form had the highest score in the later phase. - Abstract: Research Expert Committee on Evaluation of Severe Accident of AESJ (Atomic Energy Society of Japan) has developed thermal hydraulic PIRT (Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table) and source term (ST) PIRT based on findings during the Fukushima Daiichi NPPs accident. These PIRTs aim to explore the debris distribution and the current condition in the NPPs with high accuracy and to extract higher priority from the aspect of the sophistication of the analytical technology to predict the severe accident phenomena by the analytical codes. The ST PIRT is divided into 3 phases for time domain and 9 categories for spatial domain. The 68 phenomena have been extracted and the importance from the viewpoint of the source term has been ranked through brainstorming and discussions among experts. The present paper describes the developed ST PIRT list and summarizes the high ranked phenomena in each phase.

  17. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  18. Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, S. C. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 5801 Bluff Road, Columbia, SC 29209 (United States); Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y. [Fauske and Associates, Inc., 16W070 83rd Street, Burr Ridge, IL 60527 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCS rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)

  19. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  20. Comparative modeling analyses of Cs-137 fate in the rivers impacted by Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S. [Institute of Environmental Radioactivity, Fukushima University (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The consequences of two largest nuclear accidents of the last decades - at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) (1986) and at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (FDNPP) (2011) clearly demonstrated that radioactive contamination of water bodies in vicinity of NPP and on the waterways from it, e.g., river- reservoir water after Chernobyl accident and rivers and coastal marine waters after Fukushima accident, in the both cases have been one of the main sources of the public concerns on the accident consequences. The higher weight of water contamination in public perception of the accidents consequences in comparison with the real fraction of doses via aquatic pathways in comparison with other dose components is a specificity of public perception of environmental contamination. This psychological phenomenon that was confirmed after these accidents provides supplementary arguments that the reliable simulation and prediction of the radionuclide dynamics in water and sediments is important part of the post-accidental radioecological research. The purpose of the research is to use the experience of the modeling activities f conducted for the past more than 25 years within the Chernobyl affected Pripyat River and Dnieper River watershed as also data of the new monitoring studies in Japan of Abukuma River (largest in the region - the watershed area is 5400 km{sup 2}), Kuchibuto River, Uta River, Niita River, Natsui River, Same River, as also of the studies on the specific of the 'water-sediment' {sup 137}Cs exchanges in this area to refine the 1-D model RIVTOX and 2-D model COASTOX for the increasing of the predictive power of the modeling technologies. The results of the modeling studies are applied for more accurate prediction of water/sediment radionuclide contamination of rivers and reservoirs in the Fukushima Prefecture and for the comparative analyses of the efficiency of the of the post -accidental measures to diminish the contamination of the water bodies. Document

  1. [Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

  2. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  3. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  4. A Preliminary PIRT Development Related to SWR Accidents from an SG Tube Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    So, Dongsup; Jeong, Ji Young; Lee, Yong Bum [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The results of the PIRT, the uncertainties of the phenomena ranked as high priority can be reduced by an investigation or/and theoretical evaluation. The PIRT for IHTS due to SG tube rupture of Prototype GEN-IV Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR) is on developing stage by the KAERI-ANL experts. These plausible phenomena can be applicable to the PIRT development of PGSFR having the similar concept of KALIMER-600. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) process was created as a systematic and documented means of completing a U. S. NRC's Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty exercise with a limited amount of resources. This paper describes a preliminary PIRT development for a Sodium-Water Reaction (SWR) accident with regard to a Steam Generator (SG) tube failure of the KALIMER-600 (Korea Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor). The plausible phenomena related to SWR accidents were developed.

  5. Development of NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process Through Application on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank; Hamlin, Teri; Youngblood, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system. APA docs more than simply track experience: it systematically evaluates experience, looking for under-appreciated risks that may warrant changes to design or operational practice. This paper presents the pilot application of the NASA APA process to Space Shuttle Orbiter systems. In this effort, the working sessions conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC) piloted the APA process developed by Information Systems Laboratories (ISL) over the last two years under the auspices of NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance, with the assistance of the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Branch. This process is built around facilitated working sessions involving diverse system experts. One important aspect of this particular APA process is its focus on understanding the physical mechanism responsible for an operational anomaly, followed by evaluation of the risk significance of the observed anomaly as well as consideration of generalizations of the underlying mechanism to other contexts. Model completeness will probably always be an issue, but this process tries to leverage operating experience to the extent possible in order to address completeness issues before a catastrophe occurs.

  6. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmon, P.; Gonze, M.-A.; Mourlon, Ch.

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed. - Highlights: • Transfer of radiocesium atmospheric fallout in evergreen forests was modeled. • The model was tested using observations from Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. • Model predictions of canopy interception and depuration agree with measurements. • Unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall for the

  7. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  8. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  9. A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

    2017-01-01

    A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

  10. A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

    2016-06-05

    In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response.

  11. RAIM-A model for iodine behavior in containment under severe accident condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Han Chul; Cho, Yeong Hun [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Following a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, iodine is a major contributor to the potential health risks for the public. Because the amount of iodine released largely depends on its volatility, iodine's behavior in containment has been extensively studied in international programs such as International Source Term Programme-Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation (EPICUR), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-Behaviour of Iodine Project, and OECD-Source Term Evaluation and Mitigation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) has joined these programs and is developing a simplified, stand-alone iodine chemistry model, RAIM (Radio-Active Iodine chemistry Model), based on the IMOD methodology and other previous studies. This model deals with chemical reactions associated with the formation and destruction of iodine species and surface reactions in the containment atmosphere and the sump in a simple manner. RAIM was applied to a simulation of four EPICUR tests and one Radioiodine Test Facility test, which were carried out in aqueous or gaseous phases. After analysis, the results show a trend of underestimation of organic and molecular iodine for the gas-phase experiments, the opposite of that for the aqueous-phase ones, whereas the total amount of volatile iodine species agrees well between the experiment and the analysis result.

  12. Research and application on FTA model of chemical accident fuzzy system%化工事故模糊系统FTA模型的研究与应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王陈玉书; 张园园; 张巨伟; 尚思思; 刘俊亨

    2013-01-01

    针对化工事故模糊系统,基于三角模糊数和事故树建立事故定量分析模型.运用该模型进行案例分析,确定储油罐体发生火灾爆炸事故的概率分布,指出概率的波动范围、平均事故概率,得出基本事件的模糊重要度,进行模糊重要度排序,明确该化工系统危险源分布的状态,指出导致事故发生的最危险路径,给出该危险路径发生的模糊概率,以上为企业管理人员制定安全措施提供重要的参考依据.该模型对于企业进行事故预测、事故原因分析、制定安全对策、风险投资分析具有重要的意义.%Accident quantitative analysis model for chemical accident fuzzy system based on triangular fuzzy number and fault tree was established. This model was applied to analyzing a case, determining the fire and explosion accident probability distribution of oil tank, pointing out that the fluctuation range of probability and the average accident probability, getting the fuzzy important degree of basic events, sorting fuzzy degree of importance, clearing the state of dangerous source distribution about the chemical system, and pointing out the most dangerous path that causes the accident. All of above provide important reference for corporate executives to develop safety measures. The model is important for accident prediction, analyzing the cause of the accident, developing safety countermeasures and analyzing risk investment.

  13. Modeling Zero – Inflated Regression of Road Accidents at Johor Federal Road F001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasetijo Joewono

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the Poisson regression with excess zero outcomes on the response variable. A generalized linear modelling technique such as Poisson regression model and Negative Binomial model was found to be insignificant in explaining and handle over dispersion which due to high amount of zeros thus Zero Inflated model was introduced to overcome the problem. The application work on the number of road accidents on F001 Jalan Jb – Air Hitam. Data on road accident were collected for five-year period from 2010 through 2014. The result from analysis show that ZINB model performed best, in terms of the comparative criteria based on the P value less than 0.05.

  14. Modeling the early-phase redistribution of radiocesium fallouts in an evergreen coniferous forest after Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmon, P; Gonze, M-A; Mourlon, Ch

    2015-10-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, the scientific community gained numerous data on the transfer of radiocesium in European forest ecosystems, including information regarding the short-term redistribution of atmospheric fallout onto forest canopies. In the course of international programs, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) developed a forest model, named TREE4 (Transfer of Radionuclides and External Exposure in FORest systems), 15 years ago. Recently published papers on a Japanese evergreen coniferous forest contaminated by Fukushima radiocesium fallout provide interesting and quantitative data on radioactive mass fluxes measured within the forest in the months following the accident. The present study determined whether the approach adopted in the TREE4 model provides satisfactory results for Japanese forests or whether it requires adjustments. This study focused on the interception of airborne radiocesium by forest canopy, and the subsequent transfer to the forest floor through processes such as litterfall, throughfall, and stemflow, in the months following the accident. We demonstrated that TREE4 quite satisfactorily predicted the interception fraction (20%) and the canopy-to-soil transfer (70% of the total deposit in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest. This dynamics was similar to that observed in the Höglwald spruce forest. However, the unexpectedly high contribution of litterfall (31% in 5 months) in the Tochigi forest could not be reproduced in our simulations (2.5%). Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed; and sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in deposition conditions was analyzed.

  15. Development of a software platform for providing environmental monitoring data for the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, A; Saito, O; Nago, H; Suzuki, K; Tomishima, K; Saito, K; Takemiya, H

    2015-04-01

    In nuclear emergencies, it is especially important to carry out a wide range of environmental monitoring and provide the data immediately so as to understand the current distribution of radionuclides and investigate countermeasures. Therefore, it is indispensable for a nuclear emergency response to establish a system that supports rapid provision of these data. The authors have been developing the software platform by integrating technologies of environmental monitoring, information processing and network communication, based on the experience of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident. It was discovered that the platform is effective in reducing the time needed to publish the monitoring data. Reducing the cost and workload for publishing the monitoring data is also important because monitoring should be continued over a few decades in the case of the Fukushima accident. The authors' platform is expected to help to mitigate the problem, too.

  16. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  17. A new CFD modeling method for flow blockage accident investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Wenyuan, E-mail: fanwy@mail.ustc.edu.cn; Peng, Changhong, E-mail: pengch@ustc.edu.cn; Chen, Yangli, E-mail: chenyl@mail.ustc.edu.cn; Guo, Yun, E-mail: guoyun79@ustc.edu.cn

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • Porous-jump treatment is applied to CFD simulation on flow blockages. • Porous-jump treatment predicts consistent results with direct CFD treatment. • Relap5 predicts abnormal flow rate profiles in MTR SFA blockage scenario. • Relap5 fails to simulate annular heat flux in blockage case of annular assembly. • Porous-jump treatment provides reasonable and generalized CFD results. - Abstract: Inlet flow blockages in both flat and annular plate-type fuel assemblies are simulated by (Computational Fluid Dynamics) CFD and system analysis methods, with blockage ratio ranging from 60 to 90%. For all the blockage scenarios, mass flow rate of the blocked channel drops dramatically as blockage ratio increases, while mass flow rates of non-blocked channels are almost steady. As a result of over-simplifications, the system code fails to capture details of mass flow rate profiles of non-blocked channels and power redistribution of fuel plates. In order to acquire generalized CFD results, a new blockage modeling method is developed by using the porous-jump condition. For comparisons, direct CFD simulations are conducted toward postulated blockages. For the porous-jump treatment, conservative flow and heat transfer conditions are predicted for the blocked channel, while consistent predictions are obtained for non-blocked channels. Besides, flow fields in the blocked channel, asymmetric power redistributions of fuel plates, and complex heat transfer phenomena in annular fuel assembly are obtained and discussed. The present study indicates that the porous-jump condition is a reasonable blockage modeling method, which predicts generalized CFD results for flow blockages.

  18. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashim, Yusof bin [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang 26300 Kuantan, Pahang (Malaysia); Taha, Zahari bin [Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering, Malaysia Pahang, 26600 Pekan, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  19. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  20. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  1. Development of a MAAP-based Severe Accident Training Simulator using Visual System Analyzer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Jae Seung [SENTECH, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwang Il; Kim, Kyung Doo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    The recent environment of severe accident analysis requires high performance computers to simulate complicated reactor and containment phenomena. In parallel with this, rapid advances in computer technology now enable these codes to run in real or almost real time. The remaining limitation restricting their use on an even wider scale is that most of the existing codes are still subject to a complicated I/O structure. Even user-friendly graphical user interfaces (GUI) will be not likely to help better and efficient interpretation of the analysis results obtained from these codes as well as for their increased use. This situation has motivated the development of easy-to-use GUI tools for severe accident codes, such as ViSA, SNAP, MAAP4-GRAAP, SATS, and et al. For instance, ViSA enables the thermal-hydraulic system codes to be used like a conventional nuclear plant analyzer. Recently, a project for a real time simulation of results obtained using MAAP4 codes under the ViSA environment has been initiated in KAERI. Such a GUI-based interactive interface can be very useful in sharing real time analysis results obtained from the MAAP code. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the current status of a MAAP-based Severe Accident Simulator being coupled with the ViSA system

  2. Fault-tree Models of Accident Scenarios of RoPax Vessels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pedro Ant(a)o; C. Guedes Soares

    2006-01-01

    Ro-Ro vessels for cargo and passengers (RoPax) are a relatively new concept that has proven to be popular in the Mediterranean region and is becoming more widespread in Northern Europe. Due to its design characteristics and amount of passengers, although less than a regular passenger liner, accidents with RoPax vessels have far reaching consequences both for economical and for human life. The objective of this paper is to identify hazards related to casualties of RoPax vessels. The terminal casualty events chosen are related to accident and incident statistics for this type of vessel. This paper focuses on the identification of the basic events that can lead to an accident and the performance requirements. The hazard identification is carried out as the first step of a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and the modelling of the relation between the relevant events is made using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The conclusions of this study are recommendations to the later steps of FSA rather than for decision making (Step 5 of FSA). These recommendations will be focused on the possible design shortcomings identified during the analysis by fault trees throughout cut sets. Also the role that human factors have is analysed through a sensitivity analysis where it is shown that their influence is higher for groundings and collisions where an increase of the initial probability leads to the change of almost 90% of the accident occurrence.

  3. Generation IV benchmarking of TRISO fuel performance models under accident conditions: Modeling input data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collin, Blaise P. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    This document presents the benchmark plan for the calculation of particle fuel performance on safety testing experiments that are representative of operational accidental transients. The benchmark is dedicated to the modeling of fission product release under accident conditions by fuel performance codes from around the world, and the subsequent comparison to post-irradiation experiment (PIE) data from the modeled heating tests. The accident condition benchmark is divided into three parts: the modeling of a simplified benchmark problem to assess potential numerical calculation issues at low fission product release; the modeling of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis safety testing experiments; and, the comparison of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis modeling results with PIE data. The simplified benchmark case, thereafter named NCC (Numerical Calculation Case), is derived from ''Case 5'' of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on coated particle fuel technology [IAEA 2012]. It is included so participants can evaluate their codes at low fission product release. ''Case 5'' of the IAEA CRP-6 showed large code-to-code discrepancies in the release of fission products, which were attributed to ''effects of the numerical calculation method rather than the physical model''[IAEA 2012]. The NCC is therefore intended to check if these numerical effects subsist. The first two steps imply the involvement of the benchmark participants with a modeling effort following the guidelines and recommendations provided by this document. The third step involves the collection of the modeling results by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the comparison of these results with the available PIE data. The objective of this document is to provide all necessary input data to model the benchmark cases, and to give some methodology guidelines and recommendations in order to make all results suitable for comparison

  4. Modeling of the TMI-2 (Three Mile Island Unit-2) accident with MELPROG/TRAC and calculation results for Phases 1 and 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motley, F.E.; Jenks, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    Work has been performed to develop a Three Mile Island Unit-2 (TMI-2) simulation model for MELPROG/TRAC capable of predicting the observed plant behavior that took place during the accident of March 1979. A description of the TMI-2 plant model is presented and calculation results through 174 min of the accident are discussed. Using the ICBC boundary conditions, the calculation predicts pressurizer draining and core recovering prior to fuel-rod damage. A parametric calculation (reduced makeup flow) is currently underway and is in better agreement with the observed plant behavior. Efforts are underway to resolve current discrepancies and proceed with an accurate simulation through Phases 3 and 4 of the accident (174-227 min and 227-300 min, respectively). 13 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the consequences of nuclear accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, forpredicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident hasbeen developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chainbut also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused byaccident release which will make an impact on radionuclideconcentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dryand wet deposition interception and initial retention,translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activityintake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intakeof human through ingestion pathway are also considered incalculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable areconsidered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating thecontribution of rain with different period and different intensityto total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 maincode and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surfaceof vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable,nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and inanimal products and activity intake of human and so on.

  6. Development of heat insulation device to protect pressure measuring instruments from high temperature under the severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Jaehyun; Shin, Sung Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Micro Control Unit (MCU), communication module, and power supply system are also needed to be protected for the pressure transmitter. The harsh condition in containment which is created by the severe accident are composed of five elements: high temperature, high pressure, high humidity, high radiation, and physical threats by shrapnel generated during the process of the severe accident. Among these five elements, high temperature should be focused because other elements can be solved even with the thin shield. In this study, a detailed design of the heat insulation device which will be installed in the containment based on the Min Yoo's study and a verification test are done. Development of heat insulation device which enables operator to get in-containment data for the proper mitigation process under the severe accident was done in this study. With researches for severe accident management systems which proceeding actively since the Fukushima accident, researches for reliable instrumentations of in-containment data which is necessary to operate severe accident management systems properly in harsh condition during accident also should be progressed.

  7. 基于事故发展与控制的隐患分级方法%Risk Classification Method for Accident Potential Based on Development and Control Measures of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵东风; 申玉琪; 赵志强; 张佑明; 孟亦飞

    2012-01-01

    For the purpose of making the management of accident potential more scientific, the relationship between accident potential and accident was discussed and studied. The fundamental property of accident potential was brought forward that it can make the accident happen or develop. The mechanism whereby accident potential functions in the accident was revealed clearly, by predicting the impelling and inhibiting factors in the accident process. The accident potential was classified into two types (the first type of accident potential and the second type of accident potential) according to the different time they work. In the risk assessment, the problem of specific accident potential grading was resolved. By introducing the assessment indexes of accident potential exposure frequency, possibility of other factors, corrective actions, the initial value of the consequences of the accident, the correction factor of personnel protection, the correction factor of personnel exposure, the correction factor of emergency measures, the correction factor of property loss, an assessment index system was established. By calculating the risk of accident potential-causing accident, the real risk of accident potential was assessed.%为使隐患管理工作更加科学,对隐患与事故的关系进行研讨,提出隐患的根本属性是能够促使事故发生或发展.通过预估促使和控制(阻碍)事故发展的因素,来揭示隐患在事故过程中的作用机制.根据发生作用的时间将隐患分为第1类隐患和第2类隐患.在风险评估过程中,解决了具体隐患风险分级的问题,提出隐患暴露频率、其他条件的可能性、隐患纠正系数、事故后果初始分值、人员防护修正系数、人员暴露修正系数、应急处理与事故控制修正系数和财产损失修正系数等评价指标.通过隐患致因事故风险的计算,评估隐患的最终风险.

  8. Economic development and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world, 1962-1990

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.F. van Beeck (Ed); G.J.J.M. Borsboom (Gerard); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: We examined the association between prosperity and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world in a long-term perspective. METHODS: We calculated traffic accident mortality, traffic mobility and the fatal injury rate of 21 industrializ

  9. Anthropometric dependence of the response of a thorax FE model under high speed loading: validation and real world accident replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Sébastien; Torres, Fabien; Feuerstein, Philippe; Thoral-Pierre, Karine

    2013-05-01

    Finite element analysis is frequently used in several fields such as automotive simulations or biomechanics. It helps researchers and engineers to understand the mechanical behaviour of complex structures. The development of computer science brought the possibility to develop realistic computational models which can behave like physical ones, avoiding the difficulties and costs of experimental tests. In the framework of biomechanics, lots of FE models have been developed in the last few decades, enabling the investigation of the behaviour of the human body submitted to heavy damage such as in road traffic accidents or in ballistic impact. In both cases, the thorax/abdomen/pelvis system is frequently injured. The understanding of the behaviour of this complex system is of extreme importance. In order to explore the dynamic response of this system to impact loading, a finite element model of the human thorax/abdomen/pelvis system has, therefore, been developed including the main organs: heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, spleen, the skeleton (with vertebrae, intervertebral discs, ribs), stomach, intestines, muscles, and skin. The FE model is based on a 3D reconstruction, which has been made from medical records of anonymous patients, who have had medical scans with no relation to the present study. Several scans have been analyzed, and specific attention has been paid to the anthropometry of the reconstructed model, which can be considered as a 50th percentile male model. The biometric parameters and laws have been implemented in the dynamic FE code (Radioss, Altair Hyperworks 11©) used for dynamic simulations. Then the 50th percentile model was validated against experimental data available in the literature, in terms of deflection, force, whose curve must be in experimental corridors. However, for other anthropometries (small male or large male models) question about the validation and results of numerical accident replications can be raised.

  10. Modeling to assessment in an environmental consequences of nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkhipov, A.N.; Meleshin, A.Yu.; Ponomarev, S.Yu; Ozornov, A.G.; Tepikin, V.E.; Arkhipov, N.P. [Chernobyl Scientific and Technical Centre for International Research, Chernobyl (Ukraine)

    2001-03-01

    To evaluate radiological risk of Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, radionuclide migration mechanisms were investigated including partially vertical migration through soil to plant. After collection and systematization of radiological data on {sup 90}Sr, {sup 137/134}Cs, Ce, and Ru regarding to terrestrial (spatial) and vertical distribution in soil profile in the framework of subproject-2 CheSCIR, the methodology of combining various radio-ecological and geographical information has been developed, which allows to analyze possible schemes of economic use of the contaminated territories. (S. Ohno)

  11. Catastrophe model for the exposure to blood-borne pathogens and other accidents in health care settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guastello, S J; Gershon, R R; Murphy, L R

    1999-11-01

    Catastrophe models, which describe and predict discontinuous changes in system state variables, were used to model the exposure to blood and bodily fluids and more conventional occupational accidents among 1708 health care workers. Workers at three hospitals completed a survey measuring HIV-relevant exposures (needlesticks, cuts, splashes, contact with open wounds), the accident rate for broadly-defined injuries, and several occupationally relevant themes: safety climate, shift work, depression symptoms, work pace, verbal abuse, and professional group membership. A cusp (cubic polynomial) model predicting HIV-relevant exposures specifically was more accurate (R2 = 0.56) than a comparable linear model containing the same variables (R2 = 0.07). Some of the foregoing variables predisposed workers to greater differences in HIV-relevant and general accident exposures: shiftwork, climate, depressive symptoms, and work pace. Other variables governed how close an individual was to a critical threshold where a harmful incident would take place: verbal abuse, professional group membership. Similarly, a cusp model for accident incidents predicted from HIV-relevant exposures and occupational variables was also more accurate (R2 = 0.75) than comparison models. Two variables predisposed the worker to a greater accident risk: depression symptoms and shift work. Four other variables predisposed the worker to lesser accident risk: job satisfaction, safety climate, environmental stressors, and work pace. Compliance with the universal precautions and HIV-related training were not relevant to either of the models.

  12. Status report of advanced cladding modeling work to assess cladding performance under accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    B.J. Merrill; Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton

    2013-09-01

    Scoping simulations performed using a severe accident code can be applied to investigate the influence of advanced materials on beyond design basis accident progression and to identify any existing code limitations. In 2012 an effort was initiated to develop a numerical capability for understanding the potential safety advantages that might be realized during severe accident conditions by replacing Zircaloy components in light water reactors (LWRs) with silicon carbide (SiC) components. To this end, a version of the MELCOR code, under development at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico (SNL/NM), was modified by replacing Zircaloy for SiC in the MELCOR reactor core oxidation and material properties routines. The modified version of MELCOR was benchmarked against available experimental data to ensure that present SiC oxidation theory in air and steam were correctly implemented in the code. Additional modifications have been implemented in the code in 2013 to improve the specificity in defining components fabricated from non-standard materials. An overview of these modifications and the status of their implementation are summarized below.

  13. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  14. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  15. Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

    2014-10-01

    This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed.

  16. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  17. Modelling of HTR Confinement Behaviour during Accidents Involving Breach of the Helium Pressure Boundary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Fontanet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of HTRs requires the performance of a thorough safety study, which includes accident analyses. Confinement building performance is a key element of the system since the behaviour of aerosol and attached fission products within the building is of an utmost relevance in terms of the potential source term to the environment. This paper explores the available simulation capabilities (ASTEC and CONTAIN codes and illustrates the performance of a postulated HTR vented confinement under prototypical accident conditions by a scoping study based on two accident sequences characterized by Helium Pressure Boundary breaches, a small and a large break. The results obtained indicate that both codes predict very similar thermal-hydraulic responses of the confinement both in magnitude and timing. As for the aerosol behaviour, both codes predict that most of the inventory coming into the confinement is eventually depleted on the walls and only about 1% of the aerosol dust is released to the environment. The crosscomparison of codes states that largest differences are in the intercompartmental flows and the in-compartment gas composition.

  18. The development of a nuclear accident risk information system(NARIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    The computerized system, NARIS(Nuclear Accident Risk Information System) was developed in order to support the estimation of health effects and the establishment the effective risk reduction strategies. Using the system, we can analyze the distribution of health effects easily by displaying the results on the digital map of the site. Also, the thematic mapping allows the diverse analysis of the distribution of the health effects.The NARIS can be used in the emergency operation facilities in order to analyze the distribution of the health effects resulting from the severe accidents of a nuclear power plant. Also, the rapid analysis of the health effect is possible by storing the health effect results in the form of a database. Therefore, the staffs of the emergency operation facilities can establish the rapid and effective emergency response strategies. The module for the optimization of the costs and benefits and the decision making support will be added. The technical support for the establishment of the optimum and effective emergency response strategies will be possible using this system. 23 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  19. Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

    2016-07-01

    Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error."

  20. Models and numerical methods for the simulation of loss-of-coolant accidents in nuclear reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    In view of the simulation of the water flows in pressurized water reactors (PWR), many models are available in the literature and their complexity deeply depends on the required accuracy, see for instance [1]. The loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) may appear when a pipe is broken through. The coolant is composed by light water in its liquid form at very high temperature and pressure (around 300 °C and 155 bar), it then flashes and becomes instantaneously vapor in case of LOCA. A front of liquid/vapor phase transition appears in the pipes and may propagate towards the critical parts of the PWR. It is crucial to propose accurate models for the whole phenomenon, but also sufficiently robust to obtain relevant numerical results. Due to the application we have in mind, a complete description of the two-phase flow (with all the bubbles, droplets, interfaces…) is out of reach and irrelevant. We investigate averaged models, based on the use of void fractions for each phase, which represent the probability of presence of a phase at a given position and at a given time. The most accurate averaged model, based on the so-called Baer-Nunziato model, describes separately each phase by its own density, velocity and pressure. The two phases are coupled by non-conservative terms due to gradients of the void fractions and by source terms for mechanical relaxation, drag force and mass transfer. With appropriate closure laws, it has been proved [2] that this model complies with all the expected physical requirements: positivity of densities and temperatures, maximum principle for the void fraction, conservation of the mixture quantities, decrease of the global entropy… On the basis of this model, it is possible to derive simpler models, which can be used where the flow is still, see [3]. From the numerical point of view, we develop new Finite Volume schemes in [4], which also satisfy the requirements mentioned above. Since they are based on a partial linearization of the physical

  1. Reactor physics modelling of accident tolerant fuel for LWRs using ANSWERS codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindley Benjamin A.

    2016-01-01

    adopts an integral configuration and a fully passive decay heat removal system to provide indefinite cooling capability for a class of accidents. This paper presents the equilibrium cycle core design and reactor physics behaviour of the I2S-LWR with U3Si2 and the advanced steel cladding. The results were obtained using the traditional two-stage approach, in which homogenized macroscopic cross-section sets were generated by WIMS and applied in a full 3D core solution with PANTHER. The results obtained with WIMS/PANTHER were compared against the Monte Carlo Serpent code developed by VTT and previously reported results for the I2S-LWR. The results were found to be in a good agreement (e.g. <200 pcm in reactivity among the compared codes, giving confidence that the WIMS/PANTHER reactor physics package can be reliably used in modelling advanced LWR systems.

  2. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  3. Effects of early nightmares on the development of sleep disturbances in motor vehicle accident victims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Ihori; Sledjeski, Eve M; Spoonster, Eileen; Fallon, William F; Delahanty, Douglas L

    2008-12-01

    The present study prospectively examined the extent to which trauma-related nightmares affected the subsequent development of insomnia symptoms in 314 motor vehicle accident (MVA) victims. Participants were assessed in-hospital and at 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 3 months, and 1 year post-MVA. Hierarchical linear regression analyses showed that 6-week PTSD symptoms (PTSS) and 3-month nightmares, but not 2-week nightmares were positively associated with sleep onset and maintenance problems reported at 3-month post-MVA. Nightmares reported at 3-months post-MVA were positively associated with 1-year sleep maintenance problems. These findings highlight the dynamic relationship between PTSS and sleep problems as well as the potential importance of early intervention for trauma-related nightmares as a means to prevent sleep problems after a traumatic experience.

  4. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  5. Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talerko, Nikolai [Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, 53 Melnikov Street, Kyiv 04050 (Ukraine)]. E-mail: nick@rpi.kiev.ua

    2005-03-01

    This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available {sup 137}Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The {sup 137}Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.

  6. Explaining and predicting workplace accidents using data-mining techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivas, T., E-mail: trivas@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Paz, M., E-mail: mpaz.minas@gmail.co [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Martin, J.E., E-mail: jmartin@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Matias, J.M., E-mail: jmmatias@uvigo.e [Dpto. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Garcia, J.F., E-mail: jgarcia@cippinternacional.co [CIPP International, S.L. Parque Tecnologico de Asturias, Parcela 43, Oficina 11, 33428 Llanera (Spain); Taboada, J., E-mail: jtaboada@uvigo.e [Dpto. Ingenieria de los Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. Minas, University of Vigo, Campus Lagoas, 36310 Vigo (Spain)

    2011-07-15

    Current research into workplace risk is mainly conducted using conventional descriptive statistics, which, however, fail to properly identify cause-effect relationships and are unable to construct models that could predict accidents. The authors of the present study modelled incidents and accidents in two companies in the mining and construction sectors in order to identify the most important causes of accidents and develop predictive models. Data-mining techniques (decision rules, Bayesian networks, support vector machines and classification trees) were used to model accident and incident data compiled from the mining and construction sectors and obtained in interviews conducted soon after an incident/accident occurred. The results were compared with those for a classical statistical techniques (logistic regression), revealing the superiority of decision rules, classification trees and Bayesian networks in predicting and identifying the factors underlying accidents/incidents.

  7. Low-power and shutdown models for the accident sequence precursor (ASP) program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been using full-power. Level 1, limited-scope risk models for the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program for over fifteen years. These models have evolved and matured over the years, as have probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and computer technologies. Significant upgrading activities have been undertaken over the past three years, with involvement from the Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR), Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), and several national laboratories. Part of these activities was an RES-sponsored feasibility study investigating the ability to extend the ASP models to include contributors to core damage from events initiated with the reactor at low power or shutdown (LP/SD), both internal events and external events. This paper presents only the LP/SD internal event modeling efforts.

  8. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  9. Development and first application of a new tool for the simulation of the initiating phase of a severe accident on SFR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyot, M.; Gubernatis, P.; Suteau, C.

    2014-06-01

    In order to improve the safety level of Sodium Fast Reactors, low probability events such as Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident (HCDA) are analyzed for their potential consequences. The initiating phase of such accidents is of particular interest both for the prevention and the mitigation of routes leading to a large core disruption and recriticalities. Up to now, analysis of the initiating phase of HCDA has been performed with the SAS4A code. The SAS4A accident calculations are based on a multiple-channel approach, which requires that subassemblies or groups of similar subassemblies be represented together as independent channels. The SAS4A severe accident calculation scheme resorts to a simplified treatment in which an average pin is used to represent a channel. A point kinetics model coupled with a feedback reactivity model is also used to provide an estimate of the reactor power level. Both to increase the accuracy and decrease the uncertainties in the prediction of reactor safety margins, a new computational tool is currently under development at CEA Cadarache. The main features of this tool are the ability to provide a detailed sub-channel meshing of the sub-assembly as well as three-dimensional kinetics during severe accident conditions. To fulfill these goals, the fluid-dynamics SIMMER-III code has been coupled to the SNATCH solver using a MPI environment. This coupling allows both to compute the multi-phase and multi-component flows encountered in severe accident conditions and to model the power shape variation during voiding and melting of the different reactor materials. This new calculation scheme relies on a SAS-like multiple-channel treatment, where channel-to-channel heat and momentum exchanges are neglected. In this paper, an overview of the SIMMER-III/SNATCH coupled tool capabilities is provided. A first application of this new tool is also performed and compared with a SAS4A reference calculation. The new SIMMER-III/SNATCH tool proved to be

  10. Use of detailed thermochemical databases to model chemical interactions in the Severe Accident codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrachin, M. [IPSN/DRS, CEA Cadarache (France)

    2001-07-01

    For the prevention, mitigation and management of severe accidents, many problems related to core melt have to be solved: fuel degradation, melting and relocation, convection in the core melt(s), coolability of the core melt(s), fission product release, hydrogen production, behavior of the materials of the protective layers, ex-vessel spreading of the core melt(s).. To solve these problems such properties like thermal conductivity, heat capacity, density, viscosity, evaporation or sublimation of melts, the solidification behavior (solid/liquid fraction), the tendency to trap or to release the fission products, the stratification of melts notably metallic and oxide, must be known. However most of these properties are delicate to measure directly at high temperature and/or in the radio-active environment produced by the fission products. Therefore some of them must be derived by calculations from the physical-chemical description of the melt: number of phases, phase compositions, proportions of solids and liquids and their respective oxidation state, miscibility of the liquids, solubility of one phase in another, etc. This information is given by the phase diagrams of the materials in presence. Since more than ten years, IPSN has developed in collaboration with THERMODATA (Grenoble, France) a very detailed thermochemical database for the complex system U-O-Zr-Fe-Ni-La-Ba-Ru-Sr-Si-Mg-Ca-Al-(H-Ar). The direct coupling between the severe accident (SA) Codes and a thermochemical code with its database is not actually possible because of the computer time consuming and the size of the database. For this reason, most of the Severe Accident codes usually have a very simplified description for the phase diagrams which are not in agreement with the status of the art. In this presentation, alternative methodologies are detailed with their respective difficulties, the goal being to build an interface between a thermochemical database and a SA Code and to get a fast, accurate and

  11. Development of Highly Survivable Power and Communication System for NPP Instruments under Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Seung J.; Gu, Beom W.; Nguyen, Duy T.; Choi, Bo H.; Rim, Chun T. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, So I. [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    According to the detail report from the Fukushima nuclear accident, the failure of conventional instruments is mainly due to the following reasons. 1) Insufficient backup battery capacity after the station black out (SBO) 2) The malfunction or damage of instruments due to the extremely harsh ambient condition after the severe accident 3) The cut-off of power and communication cable due to the physical shocks of hydrogen explosion after the severe accident Since the current equipment qualification (EQ) for the NPP instruments is based on the design basis accident such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA), conventional instruments, which are examined under EQ condition, cannot guarantee their normal operation during the severe accident. A 7m-long-distance wireless power transfer and a radio frequency (RF) communication were introduced with conventional wired system to increase a redundancy. A heat isolation box and a harness are adopted to provide a protection from the expected physical shocks such as missiles and drastic increase of ambient temperature and pressure. A detail design principle of the highly survivable power and communication system, which has 4 sub-systems of a DCRS wireless power transfer, a Zigbee wireless communication, a GFRP harness, and a passive type router with a fly back regulator, has been presented in this paper. Each sub-system has been designed to have a robust operation characteristic regardless of the estimated physical shocks after the severe accident.

  12. Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

    2014-12-01

    With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

  13. Analysis of ex-vessel melt jet breakup and coolability. Part 1: Sensitivity on model parameters and accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriyama, Kiyofumi; Park, Hyun Sun, E-mail: hejsunny@postech.ac.kr; Hwang, Byoungcheol; Jung, Woo Hyun

    2016-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of JASMINE code to melt jet breakup and coolability in APR1400 condition. • Coolability indexes for quasi steady state breakup and cooling process. • Typical case in complete breakup/solidification, film boiling quench not reached. • Significant impact of water depth and melt jet size; weak impact of model parameters. - Abstract: The breakup of a melt jet falling in a water pool and the coolability of the melt particles produced by such jet breakup are important phenomena in terms of the mitigation of severe accident consequences in light water reactors, because the molten and relocated core material is the primary heat source that governs the accident progression. We applied a modified version of the fuel–coolant interaction simulation code, JASMINE, developed at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) to a plant scale simulation of melt jet breakup and cooling assuming an ex-vessel condition in the APR1400, a Korean advanced pressurized water reactor. Also, we examined the sensitivity on seven model parameters and five initial/boundary condition variables. The results showed that the melt cooling performance of a 6 m deep water pool in the reactor cavity is enough for removing the initial melt enthalpy for solidification, for a melt jet of 0.2 m initial diameter. The impacts of the model parameters were relatively weak and that of some of the initial/boundary condition variables, namely the water depth and melt jet diameter, were very strong. The present model indicated that a significant fraction of the melt jet is not broken up and forms a continuous melt pool on the containment floor in cases with a large melt jet diameter, 0.5 m, or a shallow water pool depth, ≤3 m.

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Accident Resistant SiC Clad Nuclear Fuel Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George W. Griffith

    2011-10-01

    A significant effort is being placed on silicon carbide ceramic matrix composite (SiC CMC) nuclear fuel cladding by Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Advanced Light Water Reactor Nuclear Fuels Pathway. The intent of this work is to invest in a high-risk, high-reward technology that can be introduced in a relatively short time. The LWRS goal is to demonstrate successful advanced fuels technology that suitable for commercial development to support nuclear relicensing. Ceramic matrix composites are an established non-nuclear technology that utilizes ceramic fibers embedded in a ceramic matrix. A thin interfacial layer between the fibers and the matrix allows for ductile behavior. The SiC CMC has relatively high strength at high reactor accident temperatures when compared to metallic cladding. SiC also has a very low chemical reactivity and doesn't react exothermically with the reactor cooling water. The radiation behavior of SiC has also been studied extensively as structural fusion system components. The SiC CMC technology is in the early stages of development and will need to mature before confidence in the developed designs can created. The advanced SiC CMC materials do offer the potential for greatly improved safety because of their high temperature strength, chemical stability and reduced hydrogen generation.

  15. Ruthenium release modelling in air under severe accident conditions using the MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beuzet, E.; Lamy, J.S. [EDF R and D, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, F-92140 Clamart (France); Perron, H. [EDF R and D, Avenue des Renardieres, Ecuelles, F-77818 Moret sur Loing (France); Simoni, E. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Universite de Paris Sud XI, F-91406 Orsay (France)

    2010-07-01

    In a nuclear power plant (NPP), in some situations of low probability of severe accidents, an air ingress into the vessel occurs. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced core degradation affecting the release of Fission Products (FPs) to the environment (source term). Indeed, Zircaloy-4 cladding oxidation by air yields 85% more heat than by steam. Besides, UO{sub 2} can be oxidised to UO{sub 2+x} and mixed with Zr, which may lead to a decrease of the fuel melting temperature. Finally, air atmosphere can enhance the FPs release, noticeably that of ruthenium. Ruthenium is of particular interest for two main reasons: first, its high radiotoxicity due to its short and long half-life isotopes ({sup 103}Ru and {sup 106}Ru respectively) and second, its ability to form highly volatile compounds such as ruthenium gaseous tetra-oxide (RuO{sub 4}). Considering that the oxygen affinity decreases between cladding, fuel and ruthenium inclusions, it is of great need to understand the phenomena governing fuel oxidation by air and ruthenium release as prerequisites for the source term issues. A review of existing data on ruthenium release, controlled by fuel oxidation, leads us to implement a new model in the EDF version of MAAP4 severe accident code (Modular Accident Analysis Program). This model takes into account the fuel stoichiometric deviation and the oxygen partial pressure evolution inside the fuel to simulate its oxidation by air. Ruthenium is then oxidised. Its oxides are released by volatilisation above the fuel. All the different ruthenium oxides formed and released are taken into consideration in the model, in terms of their particular reaction constants. In this way, partial pressures of ruthenium oxides are given in the atmosphere so that it is possible to know the fraction of ruthenium released in the atmosphere. This new model has been assessed against an analytical test of FPs release in air atmosphere performed at CEA (VERCORS RT8). The

  16. Predicting road accidents: Structural time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the model for occurrence of road accidents in Malaysia between the years of 1970 to 2010 was developed and throughout this model the number of road accidents have been predicted by using the structural time series approach. The models are developed by using stepwise method and the residual of each step has been analyzed. The accuracy of the model is analyzed by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the best model is chosen based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. A structural time series approach found that local linear trend model is the best model to represent the road accidents. This model allows level and slope component to be varied over time. In addition, this approach also provides useful information on improving the conventional time series method.

  17. MELCOR analysis of the TMI-2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boucheron, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic predictions of severe accident phenomena and the radiological source team. The analysis of the TMI-2 standard problem allowed for comparison of the model predictions in MELCOR to plant data and to the results of more mechanistic analyses. This exercise was, therefore valuable for verifying and assessing the models in the code. The major trends in the TMI-2 accident are reasonably well predicted with MELCOR, even with its simplified modeling. Comparison of the calculated and measured results is presented and, based on this comparison, conclusions can be drawn concerning the applicability of MELCOR to severe accident analysis. 5 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  19. A model for the analysis of loss of decay heat removal during loss of coolant accident in MTR pool type research reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousbia-salah, Anis [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Meccanica, Nucleari e della Produzione, Facolta di Ingegneria, Universita di Pisa, Via Diotisalvi, 2, 56126 Pisa (Italy)]. E-mail: b.salah@ing.unipi.it; Meftah, Brahim [Division Reacteur - Centre de Recherche Nucleaire Draria (CRND), BP 43 Sebala DRARIA - Algiers (Algeria); Hamidouche, Tewfik [Laboratoire des Analyses de Surete, Centre de Recherche Nucleaire d' Alger (CRNA), 02 Boulevard Frantz Fanon, B.P. 399, 16000 Algiers (Algeria)]. E-mail: thamidouche@comena-dz.org; Si-Ahmed, El Khider [Laboratoire des Ecoulements Polyhpasiques, Universite des Sciences et de la Technologie d' Alger, Algiers (Algeria)

    2006-03-15

    During a loss of coolant accident leading to total emptying of the reactor pool, the decay heat could be removed through air natural convection. However, under partial pool emptying the core is partially submerged and the coolant circulation inside the fuel element could no more be possible. Under such conditions, a core overheat takes place, and the thermal energy is essentially diffused from the core to its periphery by combined thermal radiation and conduction. In order to predict fuel element temperature evolution under such conditions a mathematical model is performed. The model is based on a 3D geometry and takes into account a variety of core configurations including fuel elements (standard and control), reflector elements and grid plates. The homogeneous flow model is used and the fluid conservation equations are solved using a semi-implicit finite difference method. Preliminary tests of the developed model were made by considering a series of hypothetical accidents. In the current framework a loss of decay heat removal accidents in the IAEA benchmark open pool MTR-type research reactor is considered. It is shown that in the case of a low core immersion height no water boiling is observed and the fuel surface temperature rise remains below the melting point of the aluminium cladding.

  20. Code Development on Aerosol Behavior under Severe Accident-Aerosol Coagulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Sung Il; Ryu, Eun Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The behaviors of the larger aerosol particles are described usually by continuum mechanics. The smallest particles have diameters less than the mean free path of gas phase molecules and the behavior of these particles can often be described well by free molecular physics. The vast majority of aerosol particles arising in reactor accident analyses have behaviors in the very complicated regime intermediate between the continuum mechanics and free molecular limit. The package includes initial inventories, release from fuel and debris, aerosol dynamics with vapor condensation and revaporization, deposition on structure surfaces, transport through flow paths, and removal by engineered safety features. Aerosol dynamic processes and the condensation and evaporation of fission product vapors after release from fuel are considered within each MELCOR control volume. The aerosol dynamics models are based on MAEROS, a multi-section, multicomponent aerosol dynamics code, but without calculation of condensation. Aerosols can deposit directly on surfaces such as heat structures and water pools, or can agglomerate and eventually fall out once they exceed the largest size specified by the user for the aerosol size distribution. Aerosols deposited on surfaces cannot currently be resuspended.

  1. Development of a taxonomy of performance influencing factors for human reliability assessment of accident management tasks and its application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dae; Kang, Dae Il; Ha, Jae Joo

    1999-06-01

    In this study, a new PIF taxonomy for HRA of the tasks during emergency operation and accident management situations. We collected the existing PIF taxonomies as many as possible. Then, we analyzed the trend in the selection of PIFs, the frequency of use between PIFs in HRA methods, and the level of definition of PIFs, in order to reflect these characteristics into the development of a new PIF taxonomy. Next, we analyzed the principal task context during accident management to draw the context specific PIFs. Afterwards, we established several criteria for the selection of the appropriate PIFs for HRA under emergency operation and accident management situations. Finally, the final PIF taxonomy containing the subitems for assessing each PIF was constructed based on the results of the previous steps and the selection criteria. The final result ofthis study is the new PIF taxonomy for HRA of the tasks during emergency operation and accident management situations. The selected 11 PIFs in the study are as follows: training and experience, availability and quality of information, status and trend of critical parameters, status of safety system/component, time pressure, working environment features, team cooperation and communication, plant policy and safety culture. (author). 35 refs., 23 tabs.

  2. A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertch, Timothy Creston

    1998-12-01

    Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release

  3. PRYMA-TO: A model of radionuclide transfer from air into food stuff. Test with data from the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Carrasco, E.; Suanez, A.; Josep, L.

    1994-07-01

    This report describes a dynamical model developed in the Environmental Institute of the CIEMAT. Its aims are the calculation of the integrated as well as time-dependent concentrations of ''131l and ''137Cs over time in soils, in forage pasture (or other vegetation species), and in milk and meat. The source contamination is assumed to come from a radioactive cloud confined in the atmospheric mixing layer. Data monitored in different locations the days following the Chernobyl accident have been used. The model was tested against post-Chernobyl data from 13 locations around the world, in the framework of the A4 exercise from the BIOMOVS program (Biospheric Models Validation Studies). The performance of the model is illustrated in 9 scenarios which have been chosen of these 13 because they have more information or they are better described. Default Probability Density Functions for the main parameters used by the model have been obtained by statistical processing of some post-Chernobyl evidence. (Author) 30 refs.

  4. Predicting Severity and Duration of Road Traffic Accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Zong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model system to predict severity and duration of traffic accidents by employing Ordered Probit model and Hazard model, respectively. The models are estimated using traffic accident data collected in Jilin province, China, in 2010. With the developed models, three severity indicators, namely, number of fatalities, number of injuries, and property damage, as well as accident duration, are predicted, and the important influences of related variables are identified. The results indicate that the goodness-of-fit of Ordered Probit model is higher than that of SVC model in severity modeling. In addition, accident severity is proven to be an important determinant of duration; that is, more fatalities and injuries in the accident lead to longer duration. Study results can be applied to predictions of accident severity and duration, which are two essential steps in accident management process. By recognizing those key influences, this study also provides suggestive results for government to take effective measures to reduce accident impacts and improve traffic safety.

  5. Review of current severe accident management approaches in Europe and identification of related modelling requirements for the computer code ASTEC V2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermsmeyer, S. [European Commission JRC, Petten (Netherlands). Inst. for Energy and Transport; Herranz, L.E.; Iglesias, R. [CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain); and others

    2015-07-15

    The severe accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) has led to a worldwide review of nuclear safety approaches and is bringing a refocussing of R and D in the field. To support these efforts several new Euratom FP7 projects have been launched. The CESAM project focuses on the improvement of the ASTEC computer code. ASTEC is jointly developed by IRSN and GRS and is considered as the European reference code for Severe Accident Analyses since it capitalizes knowledge from the extensive Euro-pean R and D in the field. The project aims at the code's enhancement and extension for use in Severe Accident Management (SAM) analysis of the NPPs of Generation II-III presently under operation or foreseen in the near future in Europe, spent fuel pools included. The work reported here is concerned with the importance, for the further development of the code, of SAM strategies to be simulated. To this end, SAM strategies applied in the EU have been compiled. This compilation is mainly based on the public information made available in the frame of the EU ''stress tests'' for NPPs and has been complemented by information pro-vided by the different CESAM partners. The context of SAM is explained and the strategies are presented. The modelling capabilities for the simulation of these strategies in the current production version 2.0 of ASTEC are discussed. Furthermore, the requirements for the next version of ASTEC V2.1 that is supported in the CESAM project are highlighted. They are a necessary complement to the list of code improvements that is drawn from consolidating new fields of application, like SFP and BWR model enhancements, and from new experimental results on severe accident phenomena.

  6. Sensitivity study of the wet deposition schemes in the modelling of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Thomas; Adachi, Kouji; Didier, Damien; Igarashi, Yasuhito

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima-Daiichi release of radioactivity is a relevant event to study the atmospheric dispersion modelling of radionuclides. Actually, the atmospheric deposition onto the ground may be studied through the map of measured Cs-137 established consecutively to the accident. The limits of detection were low enough to make the measurements possible as far as 250km from the nuclear power plant. This large scale deposition has been modelled with the Eulerian model ldX. However, several weeks of emissions in multiple weather conditions make it a real challenge. Besides, these measurements are accumulated deposition of Cs-137 over the whole period and do not inform of deposition mechanisms involved: in-cloud, below-cloud, dry deposition. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed in order to understand wet deposition mechanisms. It has been shown in a previous study (Quérel et al, 2016) that the choice of the wet deposition scheme has a strong impact on the assessment of the deposition patterns. Nevertheless, a "best" scheme could not be highlighted as it depends on the selected criteria: the ranking differs according to the statistical indicators considered (correlation, figure of merit in space and factor 2). A possibility to explain the difficulty to discriminate between several schemes was the uncertainties in the modelling, resulting from the meteorological data for instance. Since the move of the plume is not properly modelled, the deposition processes are applied with an inaccurate activity in the air. In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, new meteorological fields at higher resolution (Sekiyama et al., 2013) were provided and allows to reconsider the previous study. An updated study including these new meteorology data is presented. In addition, a focus on several releases causing deposition in located areas during known period was done. This helps to better understand the mechanisms of deposition involved following the

  7. A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastenberg, W.E. [ed.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K. [California Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering] [and others

    1993-09-01

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.

  8. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  9. Ecosystem model-based approach for modeling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    OpenAIRE

    M. Belharet; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2016-01-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosyst...

  10. Development of Collision Accident Scenario during Nuclear Spent Fuel Maritime Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Population density of South Korea is much higher than the other countries, and it is peninsula. Therefore, it is expected that major means of transportation of the spent fuel will be maritime transportation rather than overland transportation. Korea Maritime safety Tribunal (KMST) categorized various maritime accident, see table I. Among them, collision accident is one of the most important and complicated accident from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) point of view. We will show what will happen if the transportation ship is struck by other ship, how to calculate collision energy and probability of the branches on ship-ship collision with Event Tree Analysis (ETA) method. We selected and re-categorized maritime accident that KMST categorized for ship-ship collision analysis of spent fuel transportation ship. Event tree is constructed and collision energy distribution is derived from statistics and equation. And outer and inner hull fracture probabilities are calculated. If outer hull is broken but inner hull is fine, water will be flooded into the space between outer and inner hull. It will decrease mobility of the ship. If inner hull is fractured, water will be flooded into the ship inside. The ship has compartment structure to resist from foundering. Loss of mobility and compartment damage (ultimately it ends with sink) mechanism need to be analyzed to complete transportation ship collision event tree.

  11. Using meteorological ensembles for atmospheric dispersion modelling of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Périllat, Raphaël; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien; Mathieu, Anne; Sekiyama, Thomas; Didier, Damien; Kajino, Mizuo; Igarashi, Yasuhito; Adachi, Kouji

    2016-04-01

    Dispersion models are used in response to an accidental release of radionuclides of the atmosphere, to infer mitigation actions, and complement field measurements for the assessment of short and long term environmental and sanitary impacts. However, the predictions of these models are subject to important uncertainties, especially due to input data, such as meteorological fields or source term. This is still the case more than four years after the Fukushima disaster (Korsakissok et al., 2012, Girard et al., 2014). In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, a meteorological ensemble of 20 members designed by MRI (Sekiyama et al. 2013) was used with IRSN's atmospheric dispersion models. Another ensemble, retrieved from ECMWF and comprising 50 members, was also used for comparison. The MRI ensemble is 3-hour assimilated, with a 3-kilometers resolution, designed to reduce the meteorological uncertainty in the Fukushima case. The ECMWF is a 24-hour forecast with a coarser grid, representative of the uncertainty of the data available in a crisis context. First, it was necessary to assess the quality of the ensembles for our purpose, to ensure that their spread was representative of the uncertainty of meteorological fields. Using meteorological observations allowed characterizing the ensembles' spread, with tools such as Talagrand diagrams. Then, the uncertainty was propagated through atmospheric dispersion models. The underlying question is whether the output spread is larger than the input spread, that is, whether small uncertainties in meteorological fields can produce large differences in atmospheric dispersion results. Here again, the use of field observations was crucial, in order to characterize the spread of the ensemble of atmospheric dispersion simulations. In the case of the Fukushima accident, gamma dose rates, air activities and deposition data were available. Based on these data, selection criteria for the ensemble members were

  12. Modeling of leachable 137Cs in throughfall and stemflow for Japanese forest canopies after Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loffredo, Nicolas; Onda, Yuichi; Kawamori, Ayumi; Kato, Hiroaki

    2014-09-15

    The Fukushima accident dispersed significant amounts of radioactive cesium (Cs) in the landscape. Our research investigated, from June 2011 to November 2013, the mobility of leachable Cs in forests canopies. In particular, (137)Cs and (134)Cs activity concentrations were measured in rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow in broad-leaf and cedar forests in an area located 40 km from the power plant. Leachable (137)Cs loss was modeled by a double exponential (DE) model. This model could not reproduce the variation in activity concentration observed. In order to refine the DE model, the main physical measurable parameters (rainfall intensity, wind velocity, and snowfall occurrence) were assessed, and rainfall was identified as the dominant factor controlling observed variation. A corrective factor was then developed to incorporate rainfall intensity in an improved DE model. With the original DE model, we estimated total (137)Cs loss by leaching from canopies to be 72 ± 4%, 67 ± 4%, and 48 ± 2% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. In contrast, with the improved DE model, the total (137)Cs loss by leaching was estimated to be 34 ± 2%, 34 ± 2%, and 16 ± 1% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. The improved DE model corresponds better to observed data in literature. Understanding (137)Cs and (134)Cs forest dynamics is important for forecasting future contamination of forest soils around the FDNPP. It also provides a basis for understanding forest transfers in future potential nuclear disasters.

  13. Review of experimental data for modelling LWR fuel cladding behaviour under loss of coolant accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massih, Ali R. [Quantum Technologies AB, Uppsala Science Park (Sweden)

    2007-02-15

    Extensive range of experiments has been conducted in the past to quantitatively identify and understand the behaviour of fuel rod under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs). The obtained experimental data provide the basis for the current emergency core cooling system acceptance criteria under LOCA conditions for LWRs. The results of recent experiments indicate that the cladding alloy composition and high burnup effects influence LOCA acceptance criteria margins. In this report, we review some past important and recent experimental results. We first discuss the background to acceptance criteria for LOCA, namely, clad embrittlement phenomenology, clad embrittlement criteria (limitations on maximum clad oxidation and peak clad temperature) and the experimental bases for the criteria. Two broad kinds of test have been carried out under LOCA conditions: (i) Separate effect tests to study clad oxidation, clad deformation and rupture, and zirconium alloy allotropic phase transition during LOCA. (ii) Integral LOCA tests, in which the entire LOCA sequence is simulated on a single rod or a multi-rod array in a fuel bundle, in laboratory or in a tests and results are discussed and empirical correlations deduced from these tests and quantitative models are conferred. In particular, the impact of niobium in zirconium base clad and hydrogen content of the clad on allotropic phase transformation during LOCA and also the burst stress are discussed. We review some recent LOCA integral test results with emphasis on thermal shock tests. Finally, suggestions for modelling and further evaluation of certain experimental results are made.

  14. Simulation of containment pressurization in a large break-loss of coolant accident using single-cell and multicell models and CONTAIN code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalkahoran, Omid Noori; Ahangari, Rohollah [Reactor Research School, Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shirani, Amir Saied [Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Since the inception of nuclear power as a commercial energy source, safety has been recognized as a prime consideration in the design, construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants. The release of radioactivity to the environment requires the failure of multiple safety systems and the breach of three physical barriers: fuel cladding, the reactor cooling system, and containment. In this study, nuclear reactor containment pressurization has been modeled in a large break-loss of coolant accident (LB-LOCA) by programming single-cell and multicell models in MATLAB. First, containment has been considered as a control volume (single-cell model). In addition, spray operation has been added to this model. In the second step, the single-cell model has been developed into a multicell model to consider the effects of the nodalization and spatial location of cells in the containment pressurization in comparison with the single-cell model. In the third step, the accident has been simulated using the CONTAIN 2.0 code. Finally, Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP) containment has been considered as a case study. The results of BNPP containment pressurization due to LB-LOCA have been compared between models, final safety analysis report, and CONTAIN code's results.

  15. Development of MAAP5.0.3 Dose Model for Radiation Environment Effect Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Mi Ro [KHNP-CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The equipment survivability assessment under the severe accident conditions should be performed. For the environmental conditions such as the pressure and temperature, they can be calculated using MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) code. However, since MAAP itself cannot calculate the radiation DOSE, MAAP5 DOSE model should be developed in order to calculate the DOSE rate during the severe accidents. In this study, we developed the MAAP5 DOSE model for spent fuel pool of OPR1000 type NPP and calculated the DOSE to assess the survivability of the facilities in spent fuel pool and fuel handling region. Until now, there are so many uncertainties in the analysis for radiation effect during the severe accident. However, in terms of the establishment of the severe accident management strategy, quantitative analysis in order to find the general trend for radiation increase during the severe accident is useful. For the radiation environmental effect analysis, the previous studies are mainly focused inside the containment. However, after the Fukushima accident, the severe accident phenomena in the SFP have been the great issues in the nuclear industry including Korea. So, in this study, the dose rate for spent fuel building when the severe accident happens in the SFP is calculated using MAAP5 DOSE. As expected, the dose rate is increased right after the spent fuel is partially uncovered. However, the amount of dose is less significant since the rate of temperature increase is much faster than the rate of dose increase.

  16. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Medford, G.T. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  17. Modeling and sensitivity analysis of transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric transport and ground deposition of radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs during and after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP accident (March 2011 are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem model. The aim is to assess the skill of WRF in simulating these processes and the sensitivity of the model's performance to various parameterizations of unresolved physics. The WRF/Chem model is first upgraded by implementing a radioactive decay term into the advection-diffusion solver and adding three parameterizations for dry deposition and two parameterizations for wet deposition. Different microphysics and horizontal turbulent diffusion schemes are then tested for their ability to reproduce observed meteorological conditions. Subsequently, the influence on the simulated transport and deposition of the characteristics of the emission source, including the emission rate, the gas partitioning of 131I and the size distribution of 137Cs, is examined. The results show that the model can predict the wind fields and rainfall realistically. The ground deposition of the radionuclides can also potentially be captured well but it is very sensitive to the emission characterization. It is found that the total deposition is most influenced by the emission rate for both 131I and 137Cs; while it is less sensitive to the dry deposition parameterizations. Moreover, for 131I, the deposition is also sensitive to the microphysics schemes, the horizontal diffusion schemes, gas partitioning and wet deposition parameterizations; while for 137Cs, the deposition is very sensitive to the microphysics schemes and wet deposition parameterizations, and it is also sensitive to the horizontal diffusion schemes and the size distribution.

  18. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation.

  19. Inverse estimation of source parameters of oceanic radioactivity dispersion models associated with the Fukushima accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Miyazawa

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available With combined use of the ocean–atmosphere simulation models and field observation data, we evaluate the parameters associated with the total caesium-137 amounts of the direct release into the ocean and atmospheric deposition over the western North Pacific caused by the accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FNPP that occurred in March 2011. The Green's function approach is adopted for the estimation of two parameters determining the total emission amounts for the period from 12 March to 6 May 2011. It is confirmed that the validity of the estimation depends on the simulation skill near FNPP. The total amount of the direct release is estimated as 5.5–5.9 × 1015 Bq, while that of the atmospheric deposition is estimated as 5.5–9.7 × 1015 Bq, which indicates broader range of the estimate than that of the direct release owing to uncertainty of the dispersion widely spread over the western North Pacific.

  20. Inverse estimation of source parameters of oceanic radioactivity dispersion models associated with the Fukushima accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Miyazawa

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available With combined use of the ocean-atmosphere simulation models and field observation data, we evaluate the parameters associated with the total caesium-137 amounts of the direct release into the ocean and atmospheric deposition over the Western North Pacific caused by the accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FNPP that occurred in March 2011. The Green's function approach is adopted for the estimation of two parameters determining the total emission amounts for the period from 12 March to 6 May 2011. It is confirmed that the validity of the estimation depends on the simulation skill near FNPP. The total amount of the direct release is estimated as 5.5–5.9 × 1015 Bq, while that of the atmospheric deposition is estimated as 5.5–9.7 × 1015 Bq, which indicates broader range of the estimate than that of the direct release owing to uncertainty of the dispersion widely spread over the Western North Pacific.

  1. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  2. Self Rescue Model-SeReMo-A model to determine the effects of human behaviour and safety measures on the consequences of a hazardous material release-development of the new triage injury model and self-rescue for fire and explosion accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trijssenaar, I.J.M.; Horst, M.J. van der; Simons, M.; Sterkenburg, R.P.

    2014-01-01

    Human behaviour during a large-scale hazardous material release can make the difference between life, serious injury and death. People may decide to investigate what is going on or to take shelter, while a toxic or flammable cloud is being released. The Self Rescue Model (SeReMo) has been developed

  3. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  4. Development of a fission product transport module predicting the behavior of radiological materials during sever accidents in a nuclear power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyung Seok; Rhee, Bo Wook; Kim, Dong Ha [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-09-15

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is developing a fission product transport module for predicting the behavior of radioactive materials in the primary cooling system of a nuclear power plant as a separate module, which will be connected to a severe accident analysis code, Core Meltdown Progression Accident Simulation Software (COMPASS). This fission product transport (COMPASS-FP) module consists of a fission product release model, an aerosol generation model, and an aerosol transport model. In the fission product release model there are three submodels based on empirical correlations, and they are used to simulate the fission product gases release from the reactor core. In the aerosol generation model, the mass conservation law and Raoult's law are applied to the mixture of vapors and droplets of the fission products in a specified control volume to find the generation of the aerosol droplet. In the aerosol transport model, empirical correlations available from the open literature are used to simulate the aerosol removal processes owing to the gravitational settling, inertia impaction, diffusiophoresis, and thermophoresis. The COMPASS-FP module was validated against Aerosol Behavior Code Validation and Evaluation (ABCOVE-5) test performed by Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory for comparing the prediction and test data. The comparison results assuming a non-spherical aerosol shape for the suspended aerosol mass concentration showed a good agreement with an error range of about ±6%. It was found that the COMPASS-FP module produced the reasonable results of the fission product gases release, the aerosol generation, and the gravitational settling in the aerosol removal processes for ABCOVE-5. However, more validation for other aerosol removal models needs to be performed.

  5. Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

    2014-04-01

    The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that

  6. Validation of GAMMA+ model for Evaluating Heat Transfer of VHTR core in Accident Conditions by CFD analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Dongho; Yoon, Sujong; Park, Gooncherl; Cho, Hyoungkyu [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    KAERI has established a plan to demonstrate massive production of hydrogen using a VHTR by the early 2020s. In addition the GAMMA+ code is developed to analyze VHTR thermo-fluid transients at KAERI. One of the candidate reactor designs for VHTR is prismatic modular reactor (PMR), of which reference reactor is the 600MWth GT-MHR. This type of reactor has a passive safety system. During the High Pressure Conduction Cooling (HPCC) or Low Pressure Conduction Cooling (LPCC) accident, the core heats up by decay heat and then starts to cool down by conduction and radiation cooling to the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) through the prismatic core. In this mechanism, the solid conduction occurs in graphite and fuel blocks, and the gas conduction and radiation occurs in coolant holes and bypass gaps. It is important to predict conduction and radiation heat transfer in the core for safety analysis. Effective thermal conductivity is derived by Maxwell's far-field methodology Radiation effect is expressed as corresponding conductivity and added to gas conductivity. In this study, ETC model used in GAMMA+ code is validated with the commercial CFD code, CFX-13. In this study, the effective thermal conductivity model of the GAMMA+ was evaluated by comparison of CFD analysis. The CFD analysis was conducted for various numbers and volume fractions of coolant holes and temperatures. Although slight disagreement was shown for the cases run with small number of holes, the result of GAMMA+ model is accurate for the large numbers of holes sufficiently. Since there are 102 coolant holes and 210 fuel holes in a fuel block, it is concluded that GAMMA+ model is proper formula for predicting effective thermal conductivity of the VHTR fuel block. However, in high temperature region above 500 .deg. C, the GAMMA+ model underestimates the effective thermal conductivity since radiation heat transfer is not reflected precisely. Further researches on it seem to be necessary.

  7. Factors associated with the severity of construction accidents: The case of South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jantanee Dumrak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available While the causes of accidents in the construction industry have been extensively studied, severity remains an understudied area. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on severity, this study analysed 24,764 construction accidents reported during 2002-11 in South Australia. A conceptual model developed through literature uses personal characteristics such as age, experience, gender and language. It also employs work-related factors such as size of organization, project size and location, mechanism of accident and body location of the injury. These were shown to discriminate why some accidents result in only a minor severity while others are fatal. Factors such as time of accident, day of the week and season were not strongly associated with accident severity. When the factors affecting severity of an accident are well understood, preventive measures could be developed specifically to those factors that are at high risk.

  8. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    OpenAIRE

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eigh...

  9. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  10. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  11. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  12. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 μGy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 μGy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  13. Late-onset secondary nocturnal enuresis in adolescents associated with post-traumatic stress disorder developed after a traffic accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serkan Akan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Secondary nocturnal enuresis is generally seen between 5 and 7 years of age and it is rarely encountered when compared with the primary incontinence. Patients with suggested diagnosis of secondary nocturnal enuresis should be examined for neurological and spinal anomalies and diabetes mellitus, diabetes insipidus, renal failure and urinary tract infection should be ruled out in differential diagnosis (1-3. Herein, we are presenting case reports of adolescent patients with secondary nocturnal enuresis refractory to medical therapy and developed after in-vehicle and extravehicular accidents.

  14. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because...

  15. Bow-tie model for offshore drilling blowout accident%海上钻井井喷事故的蝴蝶结模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    薛鲁宁; 樊建春; 张来斌

    2013-01-01

    海上钻井是一个复杂的动态系统,同时又与一般的过程工业一样,可以划分为清晰的操作步骤和流程,因此安全屏障理论的过程模型非常适合分析海上钻井作业的安全.井喷是海上钻井作业的重要威胁,井喷事故模型对于指导海上钻井安全有重要意义.以安全屏障为基础,利用事故树和事件树分析方法,建立了海上钻井井喷事故的蝴蝶结模型.利用事故树方法分析了井喷事件的原因,通过事件树方法分析了井喷发生后火灾爆炸事故的发展过程.通过将事件原因及事故后果综合为一个模型,操作者可以很直观地了解井喷事故的发生发展过程,进而为其寻找相应的预防及控制措施提供指导.最后将“深水地平线”事故应用于该模型,验证了该模型分析海上钻井井喷事故的有效性.%Offshore drilling is a complex and dynamic system. Meanwhile, like any other process industry, it can also be divided into several independent operating steps and procedures. Therefore, the process model of safety barrier is very suitable to analyze safety of offshore drilling operations. Blowout was an important threat to offshore drilling. A blowout accident model is very meaningful to instruct offshore drilling safety. Based on safety barrier theory, a bow-tie model for offshore drilling blowout was established by utilizing fault tree and event tree methods. Causes of an offshore drilling blowout event were analyzed by fault tree, while development processes of fire & explosion accident after a blowout event were analyzed by event tree. Causes of an offshore drilling blowout event and consequences of fire & explosion accident after the blowout were combined into a single model. This model is very convenient for operators to understand the whole generating and developing process of an offshore drilling blowout accident. Therefore, it can be used as a guide for offshore drilling operators to find relevant

  16. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  17. Development of highly reliable power and communication system for essential instruments under severe accidents in NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Bo Hwan; Jang, Gi Chan; Shin, Sung Min; Kang, Hyun Gook; Rim, Chun Taek [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Soo Ill [I and C Group, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This article proposes a highly reliable power and communication system that guarantees the protection of essential instruments in a nuclear power plant under a severe accident. Both power and communication lines are established with not only conventional wired channels, but also the proposed wireless channels for emergency reserve. An inductive power transfer system is selected due to its robust power transfer characteristics under high temperature, high pressure, and highly humid environments with a large amount of scattered debris after a severe accident. A thermal insulation box and a glass-fiber reinforced plastic box are proposed to protect the essential instruments, including vulnerable electronic circuits, from extremely high temperatures of up to 627 .deg. C and pressure of up to 5 bar. The proposed wireless power and communication system is experimentally verified by an inductive power transfer system prototype having a dipole coil structure and prototype Zigbee modules over a 7-m distance, where both the thermal insulation box and the glass-fiber reinforced plastic box are fabricated and tested using a high-temperature chamber. Moreover, an experiment on the effects of a high radiation environment on various electronic devices is conducted based on the radiation test having a maximum accumulated dose of 27 Mrad.

  18. Prediction of hydrogen concentration in containment during severe accidents using fuzzy neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Yeong; Kim, Ju Hyun; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-03-15

    Recently, severe accidents in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have become a global concern. The aim of this paper is to predict the hydrogen buildup within containment resulting from severe accidents. The prediction was based on NPPs of an optimized power reactor 1,000. The increase in the hydrogen concentration in severe accidents is one of the major factors that threaten the integrity of the containment. A method using a fuzzy neural network (FNN) was applied to predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment. The FNN model was developed and verified based on simulation data acquired by simulating MAAP4 code for optimized power reactor 1,000. The FNN model is expected to assist operators to prevent a hydrogen explosion in severe accident situations and manage the accident properly because they are able to predict the changes in the trend of hydrogen concentration at the beginning of real accidents by using the developed FNN model.

  19. Accident rates for heavy truck-tractors in Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blower, D; Campbell, K L; Green, P E

    1993-06-01

    Accident rates of heavy truck-tractors are modelled using log-linear methods. The accident data used are a census of truck-tractor involvements in Michigan from May 1987 to April 1988. Travel data used to calculate the rates were produced by a survey of truck-tractors in Michigan covering the same time period. Both the accident and travel data were limited to Michigan-registered tractors operating in Michigan. Log-linear models of casualty and property-damage-only accident rates were developed using number of trailers, road type, area type, and time of day as predictor variables. Overall, differences between tractors with one and two trailers were not significant. Tractors with no trailers (bobtails) have significantly higher accident rates. Characteristics of the operating environment were found to have larger effects on the accident rate than tractor configuration (except for the bobtail). Rates varied by a factor of up to 6.8, depending on the road type. Casualty accident risk at night was 1.4 times the risk during the day. The risk of a casualty accident in rural areas was 1.6 times that of urban areas.

  20. The consumer quality index (CQ-index in an accident and emergency department: development and first evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bos Nanne

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Assessment of patients’ views are essential to provide a patient-centred health service and to evaluating quality of care. As no standardized and validated system for measuring patients’ experiences in accident and emergency departments existed, we have developed the Consumer Quality index for the accident and emergency department (CQI A&E. Methods Qualitative research has been undertaken to determine the content validity of the CQI A&E. In order to assess psychometric characteristics an 84-item questionnaire was sent to 653 patients who had attended a large A&E in the Netherlands. Also, fifty importance questions were added to determine relevance of the questions and for future calculations of improvement scores. Exploratory factor analysis was applied to detect the domains of the questionnaire. Results Survey data of 304 (47% patients were used for the analysis. The first exploratory factor analysis resulted in three domains based on 13 items: ‘Attitude of the healthcare professionals’, ‘Environment and impression of the A&E’ and ‘Respect for and explanation to the patient’. The first two had an acceptable internal consistency. The second analysis, included 24 items grouped into 5 domains: ‘Attitude of the healthcare professionals’, ‘Information and explanation’, ‘Environment of the A&E’,’Leaving the A&E’ and ‘General information and rapidity of care’. All factors were internal consistent. According to the patients, the three most important aspects in healthcare performance in the A&E were: trust in the competence of the healthcare professionals, hygiene in the A&E and patients’ health care expectations. In general, the highest improvement scores concerned patient information. Conclusions The Consumer Quality index for the accident and emergency department measures patients’ experiences of A&E healthcare performance. Preliminary psychometric characteristics are sufficient to justify

  1. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA.

  2. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  3. Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

    2016-10-01

    One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

  4. The use of Grey System Theory in predicting the road traffic accident in Fars province in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents have become a more and more important factor that restrict the development of economy and threaten the safety of human beings. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors on traffic accidents, traffic accident forecasting can be regarded as a grey system with unknown and known information, so be analyzed by grey system theory. Grey models require only a limited amount of data to estimate the behavior of unknown systems. In this paper, first, the original predicted values of road traffic accidents are separately obtained by the GM (1,1 model, the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1 model. The results of these models on predicting road traffic accident show that the forecasting accuracy of the GM(1,1 is higher than the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1 model. Then, the GM(1,1 model is applied to predict road traffic accident in Fars province.

  5. Development of Innovative Accident Tolerant High Thermal Conductivity UO2-Diamond Composite Fuel Pellets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tulenko, James [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Subhash, Ghatu [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The University of Florida (UF) evaluated a composite fuel consisting of UO2 powder mixed with diamond micro particles as a candidate as an accident-tolerant fuel (ATF). The research group had previous extensive experience researching with diamond micro particles as an addition to reactor coolant for improved plant thermal performance. The purpose of this research work was to utilize diamond micro particles to develop UO2-Diamond composite fuel pellets with significantly enhanced thermal properties, beyond that already being measured in the previous UF research projects of UO2 – SiC and UO2 – Carbon Nanotube fuel pins. UF is proving with the current research results that the addition of diamond micro particles to UO2 may greatly enhanced the thermal conductivity of the UO2 pellets producing an accident-tolerant fuel. The Beginning of life benefits have been proven and fuel samples are being irradiated in the ATR reactor to confirm that the thermal conductivity improvements are still present under irradiation.

  6. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Abrahmson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gilbert, E.S. [Battelle Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  7. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    integrated model has been demonstrated by analysing the failure in the Therac -25 sociotechnical system. THERAC -25 was an X-ray treatment machine...Baxter (2003) developed a three-layer model for the THERAC -25 system: the regulation authorities, the company who developed the system, and the...FailureFault Error FailureFault Error Failure THERAC -25 FAILURE DESIGN and CERTIFICATION Programmer Company Regulation Authorities Figure 7: Integrating

  8. ASSESSMENT OF RUNWAY ACCIDENT HAZARDS IN NIGERIA AVIATION SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinyemi Olasunkanmi Oriola

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Aviation crashes all over the world have recently been on the high rise, stemming from negligence, mechanical faults, weather, ground control errors, pilot errors, taxing and maintenance crew errors as probable reasons for such accidents. This study models the probabilistic risk assessment of runway accident hazards in Nigeria aviation sector. Six categories of runway accident hazards with their corresponding basic events were identified and modeled using fault tree analysis method of probabilistic risk assessment. The six categories of runway accident hazards are runway surface conditions, weather conditions, collision risk, aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures and human factors. The Fault Tree developed is a system of OR-gates and the weights for each hazard were derived through a domain/expert opinion. The estimated probability of occurrence of runway accident which is the top event of the Fault Tree model is 0.2624. Fault Tree Analysis; thus, identifies the most likely root causes of runway accident through importance measures. The results of the analysis show close relationship of runway accidents in Nigeria aviation sector with aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures, human factor, weather conditions and collision risk.

  9. A restructuring proposal based on MELCOR for severe accident analysis code development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Sun Hee; Song, Y. M.; Kim, D. H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-03-01

    In order to develop a template based on existing MELCOR code, current data saving and transferring methods used in MELCOR are addressed first. Then a naming convention for the constructed module is suggested and an automatic program to convert old variables into new derived type variables has been developed. Finally, a restructured module for the SPR package has been developed to be applied to MELCOR. The current MELCOR code ensures a fixed-size storage for four different data types, and manages the variable-sized data within the storage limit by storing the data on the stacked packages. It uses pointer to identify the variables between the packages. This technique causes a difficult grasping of the meaning of the variables as well as memory waste. New features of FORTRAN90, however, make it possible to allocate the storage dynamically, and to use the user-defined data type which lead to a restructured module development for the SPR package. An efficient memory treatment and as easy understanding of the code are allowed in this developed module. The validation of the template has been done by comparing the results of the modified code with those from the existing code, and it is confirmed that the results are the same. The template for the SPR package suggested in this report hints the extension of the template to the entire code. It is expected that the template will accelerate the code domestication thanks to direct understanding of each variable and easy implementation of modified or newly developed models. 3 refs., 15 figs., 16 tabs. (Author)

  10. Radiological assessment by compartment model POSEIDON-R of radioactivity released in the ocean following Fukushima Daiichi accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezhenar, Roman; Maderich, Vladimir; Heling, Rudie; Jung, Kyung Tae; Myoung, Jung-Goo

    2013-04-01

    The modified compartment model POSEIDON-R (Lepicard et al, 2004), was applied to the North-Western Pacific and adjacent seas. It is for the first time, that a compartment model was used in this region, where 25 Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) are operated. The aim of this study is to perform a radiological assessment of the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in water column and in the sediments, and the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and the subsequent doses to the population due to the consumption of fishery products. A generic predictive dynamical food-chain model is used instead of concentration factor (CF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. Three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe deep-water transport adequately. In total 175 boxes cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea and East/Japan Sea. Water fluxes between boxes were calculated by averaging three-dimensional currents obtained by hydrodynamic model ROMS over a 10-years period. Tidal mixing between boxes was parameterized. The model was validated on observation data on the Cs-137 in water for the period 1945-2004. The source terms from nuclear weapon tests are regional source term from the bomb tests on Atoll Enewetak and Atoll Bikini and global deposition from weapons tests. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations of Cs-137 in the surface water is 0.925 and RMSE=1.43 Bq/m3. A local-scale coastal box was used according POSEIDON's methodology to describe local processes of activity transport, deposition and food web around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. The source term to the ocean from the Fukushima accident includes a 10-days release of Cs-134 (5 PBq) and Cs-137 (4 PBq) directly into the ocean and 6 and 5 PBq of Cs-134 and

  11. Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao WANG; Fanghua HAO; Xuan ZHANG; Wen SUN; Hongguang CHENG

    2008-01-01

    Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of envir-onmental management studies. Severe gas H2S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor under-standing and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H2S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan "Pu Guang gas field" as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up tech-nique of puffs to simulate the H2S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H2S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind dir-ection, and due to the obstruction of the mountain's body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing con-dition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H2S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.

  12. Accidental knowledge: Using accidents and other project failures to inform research in systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenson, Diane C.

    Projects experience cost overruns, late deliveries, quality issues, cancellation, and accidents despite the best efforts of the systems engineering community. There is relatively little research on why systems engineering failures in general happen, but a substantial body of work on accident causation. Here, we investigate whether systems failures in general exhibit the same patterns of causation as accidents. We conducted a review of existing accident models to develop a model that could be applied to all types of project failures. Our model helped us to classify where the factors occur during the system development/system operation phases and which entity was involved in each factor. We analyzed 58 failure case studies. The failure cases span non-accidents, accidents, and dual failures. The sources for each subset had varying depth and scope of investigation. We developed a coding method to compare the factors between failure cases that broke each factor down into an "actor-action-object" structure. We further generalized the actions from the "actor-action-object" strings into control flaws so that we could analyze the failure cases at a high level. We analyzed the control flaws, actions, and actors for each failure case and compared the results for accidents and non-accidents. Of our results that we could not attribute to study biases, we found similarities and differences between project failure causation. We also identified which control flaws, actions, and actors were the most prevalent in the different types of project failures. Of all the actions, "failure to consider factor in system development" contributed most to non-accidents, while "failure to consider step in risk management" contributed the most to accidents. Of all the actors, "company management" contributed the most to non-accidents and accidents.

  13. A balance procedure for calculating the model fuel assemblies reflooding during design basis accident and its verification on PARAMETER test facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazyuk, S. S.; Ignat'ev, D. N.; Parshin, N. Ya.; Popov, E. B.; Soldatkin, D. M.; Kuzma-Kichta, Yu. A.

    2013-05-01

    A balance procedure is proposed for estimating the main parameters characterizing the process of model fuel assemblies reflooding of a VVER reactor made on different scales under the conditions of a design basis accident by subjecting them to bottom reflooding1. The proposed procedure satisfactorily describes the experimental data obtained on PARAMETER test facility in the temperature range up to 1200°C. The times of fuel assemblies quenching by bottom reflooding calculated using the proposed procedure are in satisfactory agreement with the experimental data obtained on model fuel assemblies of VVER- and PWR-type reactors and can be used in developing measures aimed at enhancing the safety of nuclear power stations.

  14. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Modification of models resulting from addition of effects of exposure to alpha-emitting radionuclides: Revision 1, Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models, Addendum 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.; Gilbert, E.S. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysis{close_quotes}, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,{close_quotes} was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model.

  15. A RISK MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR PREVENTING UNMANNED AIR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüdayim BAŞAK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is aimed to investigate operationally risky areas by analyzing dangers which can arise during the maintenance and flight activities of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs. For this purpose, a risk analysis methodology was introduced and then within the framework of the application, a sample of risk management model was developed. During the development of the model, personal experiences in the area of UAVs were benefited and a risk management technique consisting of five steps used by pioneering international aviation companies in fliht safety was utilized.

  16. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  17. Development of ODS FeCrAl alloys for accident-tolerant fuel cladding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dryepondt, Sebastien N. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hoelzer, David T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pint, Bruce A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Unocic, Kinga A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-09-18

    FeCrAl alloys are prime candidates for accident-tolerant fuel cladding due to their excellent oxidation resistance up to 1400 C and good mechanical properties at intermediate temperature. Former commercial oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) FeCrAl alloys such as PM2000 exhibit significantly better tensile strength than wrought FeCrAl alloys, which would alloy for the fabrication of a very thin (~250 m) ODS FeCrAl cladding and limit the neutronic penalty from the replacement of Zr-based alloys by Fe-based alloys. Several Fe-12-Cr-5Al ODS alloys where therefore fabricated by ball milling FeCrAl powders with Y2O3 and additional oxides such as TiO2 or ZrO2. The new Fe-12Cr-5Al ODS alloys showed excellent tensile strength up to 800 C but limited ductility. Good oxidation resistance in steam at 1200 and 1400 C was observed except for one ODS FeCrAl alloy containing Ti. Rolling trials were conducted at 300, 600 C and 800 C to simulate the fabrication of thin tube cladding and a plate thickness of ~0.6mm was reached before the formation of multiple edge cracks. Hardness measurements at different stages of the rolling process, before and after annealing for 1h at 1000 C, showed that a thinner plate thickness could likely be achieved by using a multi-step approach combining warm rolling and high temperature annealing. Finally, new Fe-10-12Cr-5.5-6Al-Z gas atomized powders have been purchased to fabricate the second generation of low-Cr ODS FeCrAl alloys. The main goals are to assess the effect of O, C, N and Zr contents on the ODS FeCrAl microstructure and mechanical properties, and to optimize the fabrication process to improve the ductility of the 2nd gen ODS FeCrAl while maintaining good mechanical strength and oxidation resistance.

  18. Likelihood of a marine vessel accident from wind energy development in the Atlantic: Likelihood of shipping accident from wind energy in the Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea [Coastal Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Breithaupt, Stephen [Coastal Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Whiting, Jonathan [Coastal Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Grear, Molly [Coastal Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Tagestad, Jerry [Coastal Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Washington USA; Shelton, Gregory [Shelton International, Seattle Washington USA

    2015-11-02

    Offshore wind energy development is planned for areas off the Atlantic coast. Many of the planned wind development areas fall within traditional commercial vessel routes. In order to mitigate possible hazards to ships and to wind turbines, it is important to understand the potential for increased risk to commercial shipping from the presence of wind farms. Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, historical shipping routes between ports in the Atlantic were identified, from Maine to the Florida Straits. The AIS data were also used as inputs to a numerical model that can simulate cargo, tanker and tug/towing vessel movement along typical routes. The model was used to recreate present day vessel movement, as well as to simulate future routing that may be required to avoid wind farms. By comparing the present and future routing of vessels, a risk analysis was carried out to determine the increased marginal risk of vessel collisions, groundings, and allisions with stationary objects, due to the presence of wind farms. The outcome of the analysis showed little increase in vessel collisions or allisions, and a decrease in groundings as more vessels were forced seaward by the wind farms.

  19. Modeling in fast dynamics of accidents in the primary circuit of PWR type reactors; Modelisation en dynamique rapide d'accidents dans le circuit primaire des reacteurs a eau pressurisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbe, M.F

    2003-12-01

    Two kinds of accidents, liable to occur in the primary circuit of a Pressurized Water Reactor and involving fast dynamic phenomena, are analyzed. The Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) is the accident used to define the current PWR. It consists in a large-size break located in a pipe of the primary circuit. A blowdown wave propagates through the circuit. The pressure differences between the different zones of the reactor induce high stresses in the structures of the lower head and may degrade the reactor core. The primary circuit starts emptying from the break opening. Pressure decreases very quickly, involving a large steaming. Two thermal-hydraulic simulations of the blowdown phase of a LOCA are computed with the Europlexus code. The primary circuit is represented by a pipe-model including the hydraulic peculiarities of the circuit. The main differences between both computations concern the kind of reactor, the break location and model, and the initialization of the accidental operation. Steam explosion is a hypothetical severe accident liable to happen after a core melting. The molten part of the core (called corium) falls in the lower part of the reactor. The interaction between the hot corium and the cold water remaining at the bottom of the vessel induces a massive and violent vaporization of water, similar to an explosive phenomenon. A shock wave propagates in the vessel. what can damage seriously the neighbouring structures or drill the vessel. This work presents a synthesis of in-vessel parametrical studies carried out with the Europlexus code, the linkage of the thermal-hydraulic code Mc3d dedicated to the pre-mixing phase with the Europlexus code dealing with the explosion, and finally a benchmark between the Cigalon and Europlexus codes relative to the Vulcano mock-up. (author)

  20. Seismic Shaking Table Requirements and Consideration of Fluid-Structure Interaction Effect in Seismic Response Analysis Model for In-Reactor Fuel Assembly Under Severe Earthquake Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kanghee; Yoon, Kyungho; Kang, Heungsoek; Lee, Youngho; Kim, Hyungkyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Dynamic response of fuel assembly can be significantly affected by added hydrodynamic mass and additional damping from the fluid and flow inside operating reactor core. Added mass or hydrodynamic virtual mass from surrounding fluid medium can be theoretically estimated by the potential flow theory. Solving Laplace equation in terms of velocity potential can leads to calculate mass components in the mass matrix of simplified fuel FE model. Additional damping from the fluid and the flow inside reactor core are originated from fluid drag and flow lift force, respectively. Lift force from axial flow can increase fuel assembly damping by twice compared to still fluid damping from the loop testing. In practice, fuel assembly damping should be measured by mockup loop testing and referred to published data in the literature. The justification is performed via time history analysis with simplified dynamic model using a group of fuel assembly in the core. Key check points in this analysis might be the integrity of intermediate spacer grids when impacting fuels into core shroud plate or into neighboring fuel assembly. Thus, dynamic displacement and impact force at grid elevations are the important structural parameters to be traced out during the analysis and the simulation testing. KAERI have a plan to develop dynamic analysis model and to setup test infrastructure for full scale and several fuel assembly rows seismic simulation testing. This paper briefly discuss on the reference earthquake accident scenario, shaking table requirements for full-scale seismic simulation testing, virtual testing issues before the hardware setup, and modelling issue related to fluid-structure interaction effect in accident core analysis.

  1. Development of a shell finite element. Application to the thermo-viscoplastic behaviour of a PWR vessel during a severe accident; Developpement d`un element fini coque. Application au comportement thermo-viscoplastique d`une cuve de reacteur nucleaire (REP) en situation d`accident grave

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz, V

    1998-10-07

    The aim of this study is to develop a model for the thermo-viscoplastic behaviour of he power water reactor lower head during a severe accident, so as to implement it in codes representing the whole accident progress (scenario codes). So it has to give a precise solution in a short cpu-time. The main loadings are the internal pressure and the strong longitudinal and transverse thermal gradients. To deal with this problem, the idea is to develop a new shell element with variable mechanical parameters with the temperature. This is possible in taking advantage of the properties of the bending center line, called neutral fiber. Besides, this new shell element has the particularity to be able to melt without modifying the initial dimensions of the structure. Then, we have developed a complete program to study the mechanical resistance of the vessel. The visco-plastic behaviour is considered as a loading (so it is placed in the second member of the system to be solved) and represented by a Norton law whose parameters depend on the temperature, the law is integrated explicitly which necessitates the introduction of criteria limiting the time step. The rupture criterion by creep is defined by a damage law whereas the rupture criterion by plasticity is based on the exceeding of the mean limit stress in the thickness. Then the model was validated by comparing the results with those of a Castem 2000 volume mesh (finite element code). Finally the model was coupled with the scenario codes ICARE2 and MAAP4 and tested on two typical severe accidents. The results are very satisfactory both on accuracy and cpu-time execution. (author) 113 refs.

  2. Develop a Model Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensey, Tyler S.

    2013-01-01

    During my internship at NASA, I was a model developer for Ground Support Equipment (GSE). The purpose of a model developer is to develop and unit test model component libraries (fluid, electrical, gas, etc.). The models are designed to simulate software for GSE (Ground Special Power, Crew Access Arm, Cryo, Fire and Leak Detection System, Environmental Control System (ECS), etc. .) before they are implemented into hardware. These models support verifying local control and remote software for End-Item Software Under Test (SUT). The model simulates the physical behavior (function, state, limits and 110) of each end-item and it's dependencies as defined in the Subsystem Interface Table, Software Requirements & Design Specification (SRDS), Ground Integrated Schematic (GIS), and System Mechanical Schematic.(SMS). The software of each specific model component is simulated through MATLAB's Simulink program. The intensiv model development life cycle is a.s follows: Identify source documents; identify model scope; update schedule; preliminary design review; develop model requirements; update model.. scope; update schedule; detailed design review; create/modify library component; implement library components reference; implement subsystem components; develop a test script; run the test script; develop users guide; send model out for peer review; the model is sent out for verifictionlvalidation; if there is empirical data, a validation data package is generated; if there is not empirical data, a verification package is generated; the test results are then reviewed; and finally, the user. requests accreditation, and a statement of accreditation is prepared. Once each component model is reviewed and approved, they are intertwined together into one integrated model. This integrated model is then tested itself, through a test script and autotest, so that it can be concluded that all models work conjointly, for a single purpose. The component I was assigned, specifically, was a

  3. Development of an Ingestion Pathway Model for AXAIRQ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    1999-01-13

    AXAIRQ is a dose mode code used for prospective accident assessment at the Savannah River Site and is primarily used to show regulatory compliance. For completeness of pathway analysis, an ingestion model, AXINGST, has been developed for use with, and incorporation in, AXAIRQ. Currently available ingestion models were referenced as a basis for AXINGST. AXINGST calculates a conservative ingestion dose following an atmospheric release of radionuclides and includes site specific variables where applicable.

  4. Reconstruction of {sup 131}I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talerko, Nikolai [Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, 53 Melnikov Street, Kyiv 04050 (Ukraine)]. E-mail: ntalerko@mail.ru

    2005-07-01

    The evaluation of {sup 131}I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The {sup 131}I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne {sup 131}I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of {sup 137}Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of {sup 131}I soil contamination obtained from the {sup 129}I measurements.

  5. Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Dwight A [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Mark I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.

  6. The SAM software system for modeling severe accidents at nuclear power plants equipped with VVER reactors on full-scale and analytic training simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osadchaya, D. Yu.; Fuks, R. L.

    2014-04-01

    The architecture of the SAM software package intended for modeling beyond-design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants equipped with VVER reactors evolving into a severe stage with core melting and failure of the reactor pressure vessel is presented. By using the SAM software package it is possible to perform comprehensive modeling of the entire emergency process from the failure initiating event to the stage of severe accident involving meltdown of nuclear fuel, failure of the reactor pressure vessel, and escape of corium onto the concrete basement or into the corium catcher with retention of molten products in it.

  7. An integrated graphic–taxonomic–associative approach to analyze human factors in aviation accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gong Lei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Human factors are critical causes of modern aviation accidents. However, existing accident analysis methods encounter limitations in addressing aviation human factors, especially in complex accident scenarios. The existing graphic approaches are effective for describing accident mechanisms within various categories of human factors, but cannot simultaneously describe inadequate human–aircraft–environment interactions and organizational deficiencies effectively, and highly depend on analysts’ skills and experiences. Moreover, the existing methods do not emphasize latent unsafe factors outside accidents. This paper focuses on the above three limitations and proposes an integrated graphic–taxonomic–associative approach. A new graphic model named accident tree (AcciTree, with a two-mode structure and a reaction-based concept, is developed for accident modeling and safety defense identification. The AcciTree model is then integrated with the well-established human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS to enhance both reliability of the graphic part and logicality of the taxonomic part for improving completeness of analysis. An associative hazard analysis technique is further put forward to extend analysis to factors outside accidents, to form extended safety requirements for proactive accident prevention. Two crash examples, a research flight demonstrator by our team and an industrial unmanned aircraft, illustrate that the integrated approach is effective for identifying more unsafe factors and safety requirements.

  8. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents.

  9. Modeling of leachable {sup 137}Cs in throughfall and stemflow for Japanese forest canopies after Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loffredo, Nicolas, E-mail: wataiso@free.fr [Center for Research in Isotopes and Environmental Dynamics, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572 (Japan); Onda, Yuichi [Center for Research in Isotopes and Environmental Dynamics, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572 (Japan); Kawamori, Ayumi [Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba (Japan); Kato, Hiroaki [Center for Research in Isotopes and Environmental Dynamics, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572 (Japan)

    2014-09-15

    The Fukushima accident dispersed significant amounts of radioactive cesium (Cs) in the landscape. Our research investigated, from June 2011 to November 2013, the mobility of leachable Cs in forests canopies. In particular, {sup 137}Cs and {sup 134}Cs activity concentrations were measured in rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow in broad-leaf and cedar forests in an area located 40 km from the power plant. Leachable {sup 137}Cs loss was modeled by a double exponential (DE) model. This model could not reproduce the variation in activity concentration observed. In order to refine the DE model, the main physical measurable parameters (rainfall intensity, wind velocity, and snowfall occurrence) were assessed, and rainfall was identified as the dominant factor controlling observed variation. A corrective factor was then developed to incorporate rainfall intensity in an improved DE model. With the original DE model, we estimated total {sup 137}Cs loss by leaching from canopies to be 72 ± 4%, 67 ± 4%, and 48 ± 2% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. In contrast, with the improved DE model, the total {sup 137}Cs loss by leaching was estimated to be 34 ± 2%, 34 ± 2%, and 16 ± 1% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. The improved DE model corresponds better to observed data in literature. Understanding {sup 137}Cs and {sup 134}Cs forest dynamics is important for forecasting future contamination of forest soils around the FDNPP. It also provides a basis for understanding forest transfers in future potential nuclear disasters. - Highlights: • A double exponential model was used to model leachable cesium loss from canopies. • The model could not reproduce variation observed. • Rainfall was identified as the dominant factor controlling the variation. • A rainfall parameter was used to develop an improved double exponential model. • The

  10. 交通事故宏观计量经济学模型(英文)%Macroscopic econometrics model of traffic accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王军雷; 孙小端; 贺玉龙; 侯树展

    2012-01-01

    From the points of macroscopic factors such as economic development level,population number,vehicle ownership and road condition,the regularities of traffic accidents at home and abroad were analyzed.The relations among per capita GDP and vehicle ownership per 1 000 population,mortality per 10 000 vehicles,mortality per 100 000 population were studied.Based on macroscopic econometrics and Cobb-Douglas function,the panel data model of traffic accident was set up by using the historical data in seven countries.Fixed effect model and random effect model were used to estimate parameters respectively,Hausman test was carried out,and the macroscopic econometrics models of traffic accidents for the seven countries were set up.Calculation result shows that among the parameters of traffic accidents,mortality per 100 000 population is negative correlation with per capita GDP and per capita road length,mortality per 100 000 population is positive correlation with vehicle ownership per 1 000 population.Through Hausman test,chi-square distribution value is 3.91 when freedom is 3,the probability is 0.02 and less than the confidence level which is 0.05.Compared with the random effect model,all the confidence levels of variables for fixed effect model are less than 0.05,and the goodness of fit is better.So the fixed effect model is effective.3 tabs,6 figs,18 refs.%从经济发展水平、人口数量、汽车保有量、道路情况等宏观因素入手,研究了国内外道路交通事故规律,分析了人均GDP与千人汽车保有量、万车死亡率、10万人口死亡率之间的关系。以宏观计量经济学和柯布-道格拉斯函数为基础,利用7个国家的历史数据构建了交通事故面板数据模型。分别采用固定效应模型和随机效应模型进行参数估计,并进行了Hausman检验,得到7个国家的交通事故宏观计量经济学模型。计算结果表明:在交通事故参数中,10万人口死亡率与人均GDP、人均道路长度

  11. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (pengine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s).

  12. Development of a multi-criteria tool to support decision-making process on decontamination of urban areas after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Luca, Christiano de [Instituto Militar de Engenharia, Pc. Gen. Tiburcio, 80, Praia Vermelha, Rio de Janeiro, 22290-270 RJ (Brazil); Silva, Diogo N.G. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho, Rio de Janeiro 21941-902 RJ (Brazil); Wasserman, Maria Angelica V. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear, Cidade Universitaria, Ilha do Fundao, 21941-906, Rio de Janeiro RJ (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    This work describes the main efforts to derive criteria for classifying technical aspects related to decontamination procedures to feed a multi-criteria tool to support decisions on remediation of urban areas after nuclear accidents. After listing procedures already tested or used in previous accident, technical aspects to be considered were derived. The relevance of each aspect was determined based on questionnaires answered by experts with experience on remediation after an accident. The questionnaire included 12 aspects and for each of them one or more technical criteria where developed to allow the classification of remediation procedures for urban areas. The criteria described in this work relate to the effects of each procedure on doses to the public, doses to remediation workers, waste generation and infrastructure needed. The aim of this project was to increase public concerns by turning the decision making process more reliable and transparent. In this work, the list of criteria and associated values are described. This list is now being included in a previously developed dose assessment computer program to allow the optimization of actions to be used considering all justifiable procedures based on the current experience on dealing with urban areas contamination after a nuclear or radiological accident. (authors)

  13. Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayman, W M; Males, R M

    2002-01-01

    An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

  14. Developing mathematical modelling competence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Jensen, Tomas Højgaard

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we introduce the concept of mathematical modelling competence, by which we mean being able to carry through a whole mathematical modelling process in a certain context. Analysing the structure of this process, six sub-competences are identified. Mathematical modelling competence...... cannot be reduced to these six sub-competences, but they are necessary elements in the development of mathematical modelling competence. Experience from the development of a modelling course is used to illustrate how the different nature of the sub-competences can be used as a tool for finding...... the balance between different kinds of activities in a particular educational setting. Obstacles of social, cognitive and affective nature for the students' development of mathematical modelling competence are reported and discussed in relation to the sub-competences....

  15. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  16. Development of computer-controlled ultrasonic image processing system for severe accidents research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koo, Kil Mo; Kang, Kyung Ho; Kim, Jong Tai; Kim, Jong Whan; Cho, Young Ro; Ha, Kwang Soon; Park, Rae Jun; Kim, Sang Baik; Kim, Hee Dong; Sim, Chul Moo

    2000-07-01

    In order to verify in-vessel corium cooling mechanism, LAVA(Lower-plenum Arrested Vessel Attack) experiment is being performed as a first stage proof of principle test. The aims of this study are to find a gap formation between corium melt and reactor lower head vessel, to verify the principle of the gap formation and to analyze the effect of the gap formation on the thermal behavior of corium melt and the lower plenum. This report aims at developing a computer controlled image signal processing system which is able to improve visualization and to measure the gap distribution with 3-dimensional planar image using a time domain signal analysis method as a part of the ultrasonic pulse echo methods and a computerized position control system. An image signal processing system is developed by independently developing an ultrasonic image signal processing technique and a PC controlled position control system and then combining both systems.

  17. Economic models of compensation for damages caused by nuclear accidents: some lessons for the revision of the Paris and Vienna Conventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faure, Michael G. [Limburg Univ., Maastricht (Netherlands). Faculty of Law

    1995-12-31

    Alternative systems of compensation for damages caused by nuclear accidents have been proposed. In respect, the question merits attention to whether these alternative models of compensation discussed in the economic literature could be implemented when discussing the revision of the Paris and Vienna Conventions. 55 refs., 1 tab.

  18. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  19. An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

    2017-01-09

    This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.

  20. Influence of the meteorological input on the atmospheric transport modelling with FLEXPART of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D; Maurer, C; Wotawa, G; Draxler, R; Saito, K; Seibert, P

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper the role of precipitation as FLEXPART model input is investigated for one possible release scenario of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Precipitation data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) mesoscale analysis and a JMA radar-rain gauge precipitation analysis product were utilized. The accident of Fukushima in March 2011 and the following observations enable us to assess the impact of these precipitation products at least for this single case. As expected the differences in the statistical scores are visible but not large. Increasing the ECMWF resolution of all the fields from 0.5° to 0.2° rises the correlation from 0.71 to 0.80 and an overall rank from 3.38 to 3.44. Substituting ECMWF precipitation, while the rest of the variables remains unmodified, by the JMA mesoscale precipitation analysis and the JMA radar gauge precipitation data yield the best results on a regional scale, specially when a new and more robust wet deposition scheme is introduced. The best results are obtained with a combination of ECMWF 0.2° data with precipitation from JMA mesoscale analyses and the modified wet deposition with a correlation of 0.83 and an overall rank of 3.58. NCEP-based results with the same source term are generally poorer, giving correlations around 0.66, and comparatively large negative biases and an overall rank of 3.05 that worsens when regional precipitation data is introduced.

  1. Desktop Severe Accident Graphic Simulator Module for CANDU6 : PSAIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. Y.; Song, Y. M. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The ISAAC ((Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Code for CANDU Plant) code is a system level computer code capable of performing integral analyses of potential severe accident progressions in nuclear power plants, whose main purpose is to support a Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment or severe accident management strategy developments. The code has the capability to predict a severe accident progression by modeling the CANDU6- specific systems and the expected physical phenomena based on the current understanding of the unique accident progressions. The code models the sequence of accident progressions from a core heatup, pressure tube/calandria tube rupture after an uncovery from inside and outside, a relocation of the damaged fuel to the bottom of the calandria, debris behavior in the calandria, corium quenching after a debris relocation from the calandria to the calandria vault and an erosion of the calandria vault concrete floor, a hydrogen burn, and a reactor building failure. Along with the thermal hydraulics, the fission product behavior is also considered in the primary system as well as in the reactor building.

  2. Current research and development activities on fission products and hydrogen risk after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishimura, Takeshi; Hoshi, Harutaka; Hotta, Akitoshi [Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority, Tokyo (Japan)

    2015-02-15

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, new regulatory requirements were enforced in July 2013 and a backfit was required for all existing nuclear power plants. It is required to take measures to prevent severe accidents and mitigate their radiological consequences. The Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R) has been conducting numerical studies and experimental studies on relevant severe accident phenomena and countermeasures. This article highlights fission product (FP) release and hydrogen risk as two major areas. Relevant activities in the S/NRA/R are briefly introduced, as follows: 1. For FP release: Identifying the source terms and leak mechanisms is a key issue from the viewpoint of understanding the progression of accident phenomena and planning effective countermeasures that take into account vulnerabilities of containment under severe accident conditions. To resolve these issues, the activities focus on wet well venting, pool scrubbing, iodine chemistry (in-vessel and ex-vessel), containment failure mode, and treatment of radioactive liquid effluent. 2. For hydrogen risk: because of three incidents of hydrogen explosion in reactor buildings, a comprehensive reinforcement of the hydrogen risk management has been a high priority topic. Therefore, the activities in evaluation methods focus on hydrogen generation, hydrogen distribution, and hydrogen combustion.

  3. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  4. Development of two mobile laboratories for a routine and accident monitoring of internal contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franck, D., E-mail: didier.franck@irsn.fr [IRSN-French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Internal Dosimetry Department, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France); Berniere, J.; Viltard, D.; Parre, F.; Challeton-de Vathaire, C.; Agarande, M. [IRSN-French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Internal Dosimetry Department, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

    2012-07-15

    To provide medical surveillance of workers exposed to risk of internal contamination, IRSN (French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety) has developed two mobile laboratories for on-site monitoring. The laboratories are unique in Europe. They meet the new radiation protection requirements for nuclear medicine departments and radiological emergency response. Details of the design, calibration procedures and performance characteristics of these systems in measurements of various types of organs (thyroid, lung and whole body) are described. The sensitivity of the measurements is very close to that achieved in a heavily shielded stationary laboratory. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We describe a new mobile truck developed for in situ monitoring of internal contamination. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present the technical principle of this truck. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer They can carry out in vivo measurements in different types of geometries: thyroid, lung and whole body. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We assess the performances for the measurement of typical radionuclides and contaminations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Thanks to the use of specific shielding it has been shown sensitivities quite close to a heavy shielding system.

  5. Code assessment and modelling for Design Basis Accident analysis of the European Sodium Fast Reactor design. Part II: Optimised core and representative transients analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazaro, A., E-mail: aulach@iqn.upv.es [JRC-IET European Commission, Westerduinweg 3, PO BOX 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Schikorr, M. [KIT, Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Mikityuk, K. [PSI, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Ammirabile, L. [JRC-IET European Commission, Westerduinweg 3, PO BOX 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Bandini, G. [ENEA, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Darmet, G.; Schmitt, D. [EDF, 1 Avenue du Général de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France); Dufour, Ph.; Tosello, A. [CEA, St. Paul lez Durance, 13108 Cadarache (France); Gallego, E.; Jimenez, G. [UPM, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Bubelis, E.; Ponomarev, A.; Kruessmann, R.; Struwe, D. [KIT, Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Stempniewicz, M. [NRG, Utrechtseweg 310, P.O. Box-9034, 6800 ES Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2014-10-01

    Highlights: • Benchmarked models have been applied for the analysis of DBA transients of the ESFR design. • Two system codes are able to simulate the behavior of the system beyond sodium boiling. • The optimization of the core design and its influence in the transients’ evolution is described. • The analysis has identified peak values and grace times for the protection system design. - Abstract: The new reactor concepts proposed in the Generation IV International Forum require the development and validation of computational tools able to assess their safety performance. In the first part of this paper the models of the ESFR design developed by several organisations in the framework of the CP-ESFR project were presented and their reliability validated via a benchmarking exercise. This second part of the paper includes the application of those tools for the analysis of design basis accident (DBC) scenarios of the reference design. Further, this paper also introduces the main features of the core optimisation process carried out within the project with the objective to enhance the core safety performance through the reduction of the positive coolant density reactivity effect. The influence of this optimised core design on the reactor safety performance during the previously analysed transients is also discussed. The conclusion provides an overview of the work performed by the partners involved in the project towards the development and enhancement of computational tools specifically tailored to the evaluation of the safety performance of the Generation IV innovative nuclear reactor designs.

  6. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B{sub 4}C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding

  7. Large-eddy simulation of turbulent winds during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by coupling with a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, H.; Takemi, T.; Nagai, H.

    2015-06-01

    A significant amount of radioactive material was accidentally discharged into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 12 March 2011, which produced high contaminated areas over a wide region in Japan. In conducting regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations, the computer-based nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI-II developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency was used. Because this system is driven by a meso-scale meteorological (MM) model, it is difficult to reproduce small-scale wind fluctuations due to the effects of local terrain variability and buildings within a nuclear facility that are not explicitly represented in MM models. In this study, we propose a computational approach to couple an LES-based CFD model with a MM model for detailed simulations of turbulent winds with buoyancy effects under real meteorological conditions using turbulent inflow technique. Compared to the simple measurement data, especially, the 10 min averaged wind directions of the LES differ by more than 30 degrees during some period of time. However, distribution patterns of wind speeds, directions, and potential temperature are similar to the MM data. This implies that our coupling technique has potential performance to provide detailed data on contaminated area in the nuclear accidents.

  8. Internal Flow Thermal/Fluid Modeling of STS-107 Port Wing in Support of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, John R.; Kittredge, Ken; Schunk, Richard G.

    2003-01-01

    As part of the aero-thermodynamics team supporting the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAB), the Marshall Space Flight Center was asked to perform engineering analyses of internal flows in the port wing. The aero-thermodynamics team was split into internal flow and external flow teams with the support being divided between shorter timeframe engineering methods and more complex computational fluid dynamics. In order to gain a rough order of magnitude type of knowledge of the internal flow in the port wing for various breach locations and sizes (as theorized by the CAB to have caused the Columbia re-entry failure), a bulk venting model was required to input boundary flow rates and pressures to the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This paper summarizes the modeling that was done by MSFC in Thermal Desktop. A venting model of the entire Orbiter was constructed in FloCAD based on Rockwell International s flight substantiation analyses and the STS-107 reentry trajectory. Chemical equilibrium air thermodynamic properties were generated for SINDA/FLUINT s fluid property routines from a code provided by Langley Research Center. In parallel, a simplified thermal mathematical model of the port wing, including the Thermal Protection System (TPS), was based on more detailed Shuttle re-entry modeling previously done by the Dryden Flight Research Center. Once the venting model was coupled with the thermal model of the wing structure with chemical equilibrium air properties, various breach scenarios were assessed in support of the aero-thermodynamics team. The construction of the coupled model and results are presented herein.

  9. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry.

  10. Modelling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoudias, T.; Lelieveld, J.

    2013-02-01

    We modeled the global atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The EMAC atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model was used, with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied a resolution of approximately 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude (T255). The model accounts for emissions and transport of the radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs, and removal processes through precipitation, particle sedimentation and dry deposition. In addition, we simulated the release of 133Xe, a noble gas that can be regarded as a passive transport tracer of contaminated air. The source terms are based on Chino et al. (2011) and Stohl et al. (2012); especially the emission estimates of 131I are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The calculated concentrations have been compared to station observations by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO). We calculated that about 80% of the radioactivity from Fukushima which was released to the atmosphere deposited into the Pacific Ocean. In Japan a large inhabited land area was contaminated by more than 40 kBq m-2. We also estimated the inhalation and 50-year dose by 137Cs, 134Cs and 131I to which the people in Japan are exposed.

  11. A Simplified Approach to Estimate the Urban Expressway Capacity after Traffic Accidents Using a Micro-Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the decomposition of the evolution processes of the urban expressway capacity after traffic accidents and the influence factors analysis, an approach for estimating the capacity has been proposed. Firstly, the approach introduces the Decision Tree ID algorithm, solves the accident delay time of different accident types by the Information Gain Value, and determines congestion dissipation time by the Traffic Flow Wave Theory. Secondly, taking the accident delay time as the observation cycle, the maximum number of the vehicles through the accident road per unit time was considered as its capacity. Finally, the attenuation simulation of the capacity for different accident types was calculated by the VISSIM software. The simulation results suggest that capacity attenuation of vehicle anchor is minimal and the rate is 30.074%; the next is vehicles fire, rear-end, and roll-over, and the rate is 38.389%, 40.204%, and 43.130%, respectively; the capacity attenuation of vehicle collision is the largest, and the rate is 50.037%. Moreover, the further research shows that the accident delay time is proportional to congestion dissipation time, time difference, and the ratio between them, but it is an inverse relationship with the residual capacity of urban expressway.

  12. Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robb, Kevin R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramic microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

  13. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  14. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.;

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...... in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models.Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis...

  15. Severe Accident Test Station Design Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snead, Mary A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Yan, Yong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Howell, Michael [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Keiser, James R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Terrani, Kurt A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of the ORNL severe accident test station (SATS) is to provide a platform for evaluation of advanced fuels under projected beyond design basis accident (BDBA) conditions. The SATS delivers the capability to map the behavior of advanced fuels concepts under accident scenarios across various temperature and pressure profiles, steam and steam-hydrogen gas mixtures, and thermal shock. The overall facility will include parallel capabilities for examination of fuels and irradiated materials (in-cell) and non-irradiated materials (out-of-cell) at BDBA conditions as well as design basis accident (DBA) or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. Also, a supporting analytical infrastructure to provide the data-needs for the fuel-modeling components of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program will be put in place in a parallel manner. This design report contains the information for the first, second and third phases of design and construction of the SATS. The first phase consisted of the design and construction of an out-of-cell BDBA module intended for examination of non-irradiated materials. The second phase of this work was to construct the BDBA in-cell module to test irradiated fuels and materials as well as the module for DBA (i.e. LOCA) testing out-of-cell, The third phase was to build the in-cell DBA module. The details of the design constraints and requirements for the in-cell facility have been closely captured during the deployment of the out-of-cell SATS modules to ensure effective future implementation of the in-cell modules.

  16. A study on the operator's errors of commission (EOC) in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants: methodology development and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Kyun; Kang, Da Il

    2003-04-01

    As the concern on the operator's inappropriate interventions, the so-called Errors Of Commission (EOCs), that can exacerbate the plant safety has been raised, much of interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective has been increased. Also, one of the items in need of improvement for the conventional PSA and HRA that consider only the system-demanding human actions is the inclusion of the operator's EOC events into the PSA model. In this study, we propose a methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be occurring from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. In order to achieve this goal, the following research items have been performed: Firstly, we analysed the error causes or situations contributed to the occurrence of EOCs in several incidents/accidents of nuclear power plants. Secondly, limitations of the advanced HRAs in treating EOCs were reviewed, and a requirement for a new methodology for analysing EOCs was established. Thirdly, based on these accomplishments a methodology for identifying and analysing EOC events inducible from the failures in situation assessment and decision making was proposed and applied to all the accident sequences of YGN 3 and 4 NPP which resulted in the identification of about 10 EOC situations.

  17. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Road safety is a major concern for society and individuals. Although road safety has improved in recent years, the number of road fatalities is still unacceptably high. In 2000, road accidents killed over 40,000 people in the European Union and injured more than 1.7 million. In 2001 in Denmark......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...... to accident data, and influential factors such as changing traffic volumes and demographic and economic trends. It highlights the limitations in the influential factors data-structure, in particular, their strong covariance and slow development over time. An important issue in this thesis was to investigate...

  18. Product Development Process Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    The use of Concurrent Engineering and other modern methods of product development and maintenance require that a large number of time-overlapped "processes" be performed by many people. However, successfully describing and optimizing these processes are becoming even more difficult to achieve. The perspective of industrial process theory (the definition of process) and the perspective of process implementation (process transition, accumulation, and inter-operations between processes) are used to survey the method used to build one base model (multi-view) process model.

  19. Severe accident analysis using dynamic accident progression event trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakobyan, Aram P.

    In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code [1]. A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a

  20. Development of posture-specific computational phantoms using motion capture technology and application to radiation dose-reconstruction for the 1999 Tokai-Mura nuclear criticality accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, Justin A.; Caracappa, Peter F.; Xu, X. George

    2014-09-01

    The majority of existing computational phantoms are designed to represent workers in typical standing anatomical postures with fixed arm and leg positions. However, workers found in accident-related scenarios often assume varied postures. This paper describes the development and application of two phantoms with adjusted postures specified by data acquired from a motion capture system to simulate unique human postures found in a 1999 criticality accident that took place at a JCO facility in Tokai-Mura, Japan. In the course of this accident, two workers were fatally exposed to extremely high levels of radiation. Implementation of the emergent techniques discussed produced more accurate and more detailed dose estimates for the two workers than were reported in previous studies. A total-body dose of 6.43 and 26.38 Gy was estimated for the two workers, who assumed a crouching and a standing posture, respectively. Additionally, organ-specific dose estimates were determined, including a 7.93 Gy dose to the thyroid and 6.11 Gy dose to the stomach for the crouching worker and a 41.71 Gy dose to the liver and a 37.26 Gy dose to the stomach for the standing worker. Implications for the medical prognosis of the workers are discussed, and the results of this study were found to correlate better with the patient outcome than previous estimates, suggesting potential future applications of such methods for improved epidemiological studies involving next-generation computational phantom tools.

  1. Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of an atmospheric dispersion model with an improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katata, G.; Chino, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Terada, H.; Ota, M.; Nagai, H.; Kajino, M.; Draxler, R.; Hort, M. C.; Malo, A.; Torii, T.; Sanada, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate the detailed atmospheric releases during the accident using a reverse estimation method which calculates the release rates of radionuclides by comparing measurements of air concentration of a radionuclide or its dose rate in the environment with the ones calculated by atmospheric and oceanic transport, dispersion and deposition models. The atmospheric and oceanic models used are WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN-FDM (Finite difference oceanic dispersion model), both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fog-water depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation, and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to the FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (safety relief valve) was opened three times at Unit 2, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates. The simulation by WSPEEDI-II using the new source term reproduced the local and regional patterns of cumulative

  2. Prediction of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majumdar, S. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1999-11-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating and design-basis accident conditions are reviewed. These rate-independent flow stress models are inadequate for predicting failure of steam generator tubes under severe accident conditions because the temperature of the tubes during such accidents can reach as high as 800 C where creep effects become important. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests on unflawed and flawed specimens containing axial and circumferential flaws and loaded by constant as well as ramped temperature and pressure loadings. Finally, tests were conducted using pressure and temperature histories that are calculated to occur during postulated severe accidents. In all cases, the creep rupture model predicted the failure temperature and time more accurately than the flow stress models. (orig.)

  3. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  4. Emulation and Sobol' sensitivity analysis of an atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Sylvain; Mallet, Vivien; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Simulations of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides involve large uncertainties originating from the limited knowledge of meteorological input data, composition, amount and timing of emissions, and some model parameters. The estimation of these uncertainties is an essential complement to modeling for decision making in case of an accidental release. We have studied the relative influence of a set of uncertain inputs on several outputs from the Eulerian model Polyphemus/Polair3D on the Fukushima case. We chose to use the variance-based sensitivity analysis method of Sobol'. This method requires a large number of model evaluations which was not achievable directly due to the high computational cost of Polyphemus/Polair3D. To circumvent this issue, we built a mathematical approximation of the model using Gaussian process emulation. We observed that aggregated outputs are mainly driven by the amount of emitted radionuclides, while local outputs are mostly sensitive to wind perturbations. The release height is notably influential, but only in the vicinity of the source. Finally, averaging either spatially or temporally tends to cancel out interactions between uncertain inputs.

  5. World Meteorological Organization's model simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draxler, Roland; Arnold, Dèlia; Chino, Masamichi; Galmarini, Stefano; Hort, Matthew; Jones, Andrew; Leadbetter, Susan; Malo, Alain; Maurer, Christian; Rolph, Glenn; Saito, Kazuo; Servranckx, René; Shimbori, Toshiki; Solazzo, Efisio; Wotawa, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Five different atmospheric transport and dispersion model's (ATDM) deposition and air concentration results for atmospheric releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident were evaluated over Japan using regional (137)Cs deposition measurements and (137)Cs and (131)I air concentration time series at one location about 110 km from the plant. Some of the ATDMs used the same and others different meteorological data consistent with their normal operating practices. There were four global meteorological analyses data sets available and two regional high-resolution analyses. Not all of the ATDMs were able to use all of the meteorological data combinations. The ATDMs were configured identically as much as possible with respect to the release duration, release height, concentration grid size, and averaging time. However, each ATDM retained its unique treatment of the vertical velocity field and the wet and dry deposition, one of the largest uncertainties in these calculations. There were 18 ATDM-meteorology combinations available for evaluation. The deposition results showed that even when using the same meteorological analysis, each ATDM can produce quite different deposition patterns. The better calculations in terms of both deposition and air concentration were associated with the smoother ATDM deposition patterns. The best model with respect to the deposition was not always the best model with respect to air concentrations. The use of high-resolution mesoscale analyses improved ATDM performance; however, high-resolution precipitation analyses did not improve ATDM predictions. Although some ATDMs could be identified as better performers for either deposition or air concentration calculations, overall, the ensemble mean of a subset of better performing members provided more consistent results for both types of calculations.

  6. Integrated Computational Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    68.5%, 9.6% and 21.9%, respectively. The alloy density and Vickers microhardness were ρ = 8.23 ± 0.01 g/cm3 and Hv = 5288 ± 1 MPa. [3...and 3-D. Techniques to mechanically test materials at smaller scales were developed to better inform the deformation models. Also methods were...situ microscale tension testing technique was adapted to enable microscale fatigue testing on tensile dog-bone specimens. Microscale tensile fatigue

  7. Development and operation of the network system for nuclear safety - Improvement of the following accident dose assessment system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Enn Han; Han, Moon Hee; Suh, Kyung Suk; Hwang, Won Tae [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-12-01

    The FADAS has been updates for calculating the real-time wind fields continuously at the nuclear sites in Korea. The system has been constructed to compute the wind fields using its own process for the dummy meteorological data, and does not effect on the overall wind field module. If the radioactive materials are released into the atmosphere in real situation, the calculations of wind fields and exposure dose in the previous FADAS are performed in the case of the recognition of the above situation in the source term evaluation module. The current version of FADAS includes the program for evaluating the effect of the predicted accident and the assumed scenario together. The dose assessment module is separated into the real-time and the supposed accident respectively. 8 refs., 17 figs., 10 tabs. (Author)

  8. Developing a Model Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, Christina M.

    2013-01-01

    The Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) Simulation Computer Software Configuration Item (CSCI) is responsible for providing simulations to support test and verification of SCCS hardware and software. The Universal Coolant Transporter System (UCTS) was a Space Shuttle Orbiter support piece of the Ground Servicing Equipment (GSE). The initial purpose of the UCTS was to provide two support services to the Space Shuttle Orbiter immediately after landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility. The UCTS is designed with the capability of servicing future space vehicles; including all Space Station Requirements necessary for the MPLM Modules. The Simulation uses GSE Models to stand in for the actual systems to support testing of SCCS systems during their development. As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), my assignment was to develop a model component for the UCTS. I was given a fluid component (dryer) to model in Simulink. I completed training for UNIX and Simulink. The dryer is a Catch All replaceable core type filter-dryer. The filter-dryer provides maximum protection for the thermostatic expansion valve and solenoid valve from dirt that may be in the system. The filter-dryer also protects the valves from freezing up. I researched fluid dynamics to understand the function of my component. The filter-dryer was modeled by determining affects it has on the pressure and velocity of the system. I used Bernoulli's Equation to calculate the pressure and velocity differential through the dryer. I created my filter-dryer model in Simulink and wrote the test script to test the component. I completed component testing and captured test data. The finalized model was sent for peer review for any improvements. I participated in Simulation meetings and was involved in the subsystem design process and team collaborations. I gained valuable work experience and insight into a career path as an engineer.

  9. Wireless. Automation of accident mountings. Development of a new solution of drive; Kabellos. Automatisierung von Havariearmaturen. Entwicklung einer neuen Antriebsloesung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sacharowitz, Axel [3S Antriebe GmbH, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-01-15

    The Industrielle Werke Basel IWB (Basel, Switzerland) evaluate the automation of dividing an accident of its district heating grid. However, only a few of the relevant shafts have a grid connection. Furthermore, the mountings have no drive units. Due to the costs IWB dispensed with the exchange of the mountings and effort of underground engineering. The solution consists of wireless valve actuators of the 3 S actuators. The first 3 S actuators are put into operation in November 2012.

  10. Development Status of TRACE model for PGSFR Safety Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Andong; Choi, Yong Won; Kim, Jihun; Bae, Moohoon [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    For the preparation of the review of licensing application for PGSFR, TRACE model for the PGSFR is being developed considering the sodium related properties and model in the code. For the use of licensing purpose, it is identified and need to be improved that model uncertainty in the code and conservative conditions for accident analysis is needs to be defined and validated. And current simulations are applicable only to assembly-averaged assessment. So it is also need to be defined for pin-wise assessment within hot assembly. On the basis on the developed model, PGSFR design change will be applied and improved for independent audit calculation for incoming licensing review. Prototype Generation IV Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR) of 150MWe is under developing targeting licensing application by 2017. KINS is preparing review of its licensing application, especially the audit calculation tool for transient and accident analysis is being prepared for review. Since 2012, TRACE code applicability study has been doing for the Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor. At first, Sodium properties and the related heat transfer model in the code were reviewed. Demonstration Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (DSFR-600) were model and representing DBAs were assessed until the PGSFR design is fixed. EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Test (SHRT) experiment is also being analyzed in terms of IAEA Cooperated Research Program. In this paper, PGSFR TRACE code modeling status and considerations for SFR DBA assessment is introduced.

  11. 气象因素对电力安全事故影响的模型%Research on Impact Model of Meteorological Factors on the Power Accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李彦斌; 韩颖; 张嵘; 李彦国

    2013-01-01

      以我国南方某地区为例,收集了该地区连续48个月的电力事故数据及其对应的15个气象要素资料。首先用因子分析法消除了15个气象要素的多重共线性,提取了温度因子、降水因子、湿度因子、风力因子4类主要因素,其次应用Logistic回归建立了气象因素对电力事故的影响模型。模型探究了气象条件与电力事故的内在联系,并用2010年的检验样本验证了模型拟合的准确性,为电力事故预警机制的建立进行了积极的探讨。%Taking a certain region in South China for example, the power system accident data in continuous 48 months of this region and corresponding data of 15 meteorological factors are collected. Firstly, the multicollinearity of the 15 meteorological factors are eliminated by factor analysis, and four kinds of main factors such as temperature factor, precipitation factor, humidity factor and wind power factor are extracted;secondly, an impact model of meteorological factors on power system accidents is established by Logistic regression. Using the established impact model the internal relations between meteorological conditions and power system accidents are explored, and the fitting accuracy of the proposed model is validated by test samples in 2010. The proposed impact model is available for reference to the establishment of early warning mechanism for power system accidents.

  12. Accident prevention in SME using ORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Troen, Hanne

    2008-01-01

    Risk perception in SMEs is normally low, and this is closely related to the fact that the chance of a mall enterprise experiencing a serious accident is very small compared to companies that employ a large workforce. This is a fact even though the SMEs together have a higher accident frequency...... compared with large enterprises. To reach the SMEs we must find a way of supporting them, because they normally have neither the time nor the resources to acquire the knowledge and awareness necessary for working with their own safety. The Occupational Risk Model (ORM) developed by the Dutch Workgroup...... safety in SMEs, as the project also focuses on management factors that can motivate the SMEs to increase their risk awareness and own initiatives. The project is now half way through the project period....

  13. Reactor vessel water level estimation during severe accidents using cascaded fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Choi, Geon Pil; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Global concern and interest in the safety of nuclear power plants have increased considerably since the Fukushima accident. In the event of a severe accident, the reactor vessel water level cannot be measured. The reactor vessel water level has a direct impact on confirming the safety of reactor core cooling. However, in the event of a severe accident, it may be possible to estimate the reactor vessel water level by employing other information. The cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) model can be used to estimate the reactor vessel water level through the process of repeatedly adding fuzzy neural networks. The developed CFNN model was found to be sufficiently accurate for estimating the reactor vessel water level when the sensor performance had deteriorated. Therefore, the developed CFNN model can help provide effective information to operators in the event of a severe accident.

  14. A cross-scale numerical modeling system for management support of oil spill accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo, Alberto; Oliveira, Anabela; Fortunato, André B; Zhang, Joseph; Baptista, António M

    2014-03-15

    A flexible 2D/3D oil spill modeling system addressing the distinct nature of the surface and water column fluids, major oil weathering and improved retention/reposition processes in coastal zones is presented. The system integrates hydrodynamic, transport and oil weathering modules, which can be combined to offer different-complexity descriptions as required by applications across the river-to-ocean continuum. Features include accounting for different composition and reology in the surface and water column mixtures, as well as spreading, evaporation, water-in-oil emulsification, shoreline retention, dispersion and dissolution. The use of unstructured grids provides flexibility and efficiency in handling spills in complex geometries and across scales. The use of high-order Eulerian-Lagrangian methods allows for computational efficiency and for handling key processes in ways consistent with their distinct mathematical nature and time scales. The modeling system is tested through a suite of synthetic, laboratory and realistic-domain benchmarks, which demonstrate robust handling of key processes and of 2D/3D couplings. The application of the modeling system to a spill scenario at the entrance of a port in a coastal lagoon illustrates the power of the approach to represent spills that occur in coastal regions with complex boundaries and bathymetry.

  15. SOURCE 2.0 model development: UO{sub 2} thermal properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, P.J. [ALARA Research, Inc., Saint John, New Brunswick (Canada); Richards, M.J. [Hydro Quebec, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Iglesias, F.C.; Brito, A.C. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    1997-07-01

    During analysis of CANDU postulated accidents, the reactor fuel is estimated to experience large temperature variations and to be exposed to a variety of environments from highly oxidized to mildly reducing. The exposure of CANDU fuel to these environments and temperatures may affect fission product releases from the fuel and cause degradation of the fuel thermal properties. The SOURCE 2.0 project is a safety analysis code which will model the necessary mechanisms required to calculate fission product release for a variety of accident scenarios, including large break loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) with or without emergency core cooling. The goal of the model development is to generate models which are consistent with each other and phenomenologically based, insofar as that is possible given the state of theoretical understanding.

  16. Systematics of Reconstructed Process Facility Criticality Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pruvost, N.L.; McLaughlin, T.P.; Monahan, S.P.

    1999-09-19

    The systematics of the characteristics of twenty-one criticality accidents occurring in nuclear processing facilities of the Russian Federation, the United States, and the United Kingdom are examined. By systematics the authors mean the degree of consistency or agreement between the factual parameters reported for the accidents and the experimentally known conditions for criticality. The twenty-one reported process criticality accidents are not sufficiently well described to justify attempting detailed neutronic modeling. However, results of classic hand calculations confirm the credibility of the reported accident conditions.

  17. A damage assessment model of oil spill accident combining historical data and satellite remote sensing information: a case study in Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lai; Hu, Zhuowei; Dong, Lin; Zhao, Wenji

    2015-02-15

    Oil spills are one of the major sources of marine pollution; it is important to conduct comprehensive assessment of losses that occur as a result of these events. Traditional methods are required to assess the three parts of losses including cleanup, socioeconomic losses, and environmental costs. It is relatively slow because assessment is complex and time consuming. A relatively quick method was developed to improve the efficiency of assessment, and then applied to the Penglai 19-3 accident. This paper uses an SAR image to calculate the oil spill area through Neural Network Classification, and uses historical oil-spill data to build the relationship between loss and other factors including sea-surface wind speed, and distance to the coast. A multiple regression equation was used to assess oil spill damage as a function of the independent variables. Results of this study can be used for regulating and quickly dealing with oil spill assessment.

  18. IMPACT fragmentation model developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorge, Marlon E.; Mains, Deanna L.

    2016-09-01

    The IMPACT fragmentation model has been used by The Aerospace Corporation for more than 25 years to analyze orbital altitude explosions and hypervelocity collisions. The model is semi-empirical, combining mass, energy and momentum conservation laws with empirically derived relationships for fragment characteristics such as number, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and spreading velocity as well as event energy distribution. Model results are used for several types of analysis including assessment of short-term risks to satellites from orbital altitude fragmentations, prediction of the long-term evolution of the orbital debris environment and forensic assessments of breakup events. A new version of IMPACT, version 6, has been completed and incorporates a number of advancements enabled by a multi-year long effort to characterize more than 11,000 debris fragments from more than three dozen historical on-orbit breakup events. These events involved a wide range of causes, energies, and fragmenting objects. Special focus was placed on the explosion model, as the majority of events examined were explosions. Revisions were made to the mass distribution used for explosion events, increasing the number of smaller fragments generated. The algorithm for modeling upper stage large fragment generation was updated. A momentum conserving asymmetric spreading velocity distribution algorithm was implemented to better represent sub-catastrophic events. An approach was developed for modeling sub-catastrophic explosions, those where the majority of the parent object remains intact, based on estimated event energy. Finally, significant modifications were made to the area-to-mass ratio distribution to incorporate the tendencies of different materials to fragment into different shapes. This ability enabled better matches between the observed area-to-mass ratios and those generated by the model. It also opened up additional possibilities for post-event analysis of breakups. The paper will discuss

  19. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-03-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer

  20. Review of Severe Accident Phenomena in LWR and Related Severe Accident Analysis Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Hashim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Firstly, importance of severe accident provision is highlighted in view of Fukushima Daiichi accident. Then, extensive review of the past researches on severe accident phenomena in LWR is presented within this study. Various complexes, physicochemical and radiological phenomena take place during various stages of the severe accidents of Light Water Reactor (LWR plants. The review deals with progression of the severe accidents phenomena by dividing into core degradation phenomena in reactor vessel and post core melt phenomena in the containment. The development of various computer codes to analyze these severe accidents phenomena is also summarized in the review. Lastly, the need of international activity is stressed to assemble various severe accidents related knowledge systematically from research organs and compile them on the open knowledge base via the internet to be available worldwide.

  1. Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics and environmental attributes. Five alternative actions involving emergency lateral and speed...... as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...... for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009. Results show that (i) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (ii) women and elderly have a lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance...

  2. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.; Buncher, C.; Denniston, C.; Gilbert, E.; Hahn, F.; Hertzberg, V.; Maxon, H.; Scott, B.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.

  3. Detailed source term estimation of atmospheric release during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident by coupling atmospheric and oceanic dispersion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katata, Genki; Chino, Masamichi; Terada, Hiroaki; Kobayashi, Takuya; Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kajino, Mizuo

    2014-05-01

    Temporal variations of release amounts of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident and their dispersion process are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. Here, we estimated a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data and coupling atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations by WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN developed by the authors. New schemes for wet, dry, and fog depositions of radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (I-131, Te-132, Cs-137, and Cs-134) were incorporated into WSPEEDI-II. The deposition calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data of ocean dispersion calculations by SEA-GEARN. The reverse estimation method based on the simulation by both models assuming unit release rate (1 Bq h-1) was adopted to estimate the source term at the FNPP1 using air dose rate, and air sea surface concentrations. The results suggested that the major release of radionuclides from the FNPP1 occurred in the following periods during March 2011: afternoon on the 12th when the venting and hydrogen explosion occurred at Unit 1, morning on the 13th after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight on the 14th when several openings of SRV (steam relief valve) were conducted at Unit 2, morning and night on the 15th, and morning on the 16th. The modified WSPEEDI-II using the newly estimated source term well reproduced local and regional patterns of air dose rate and surface deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 obtained by airborne observations. Our dispersion simulations also revealed that the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPP1 were created from 15th to 16th March by complicated interactions among rainfall (wet deposition), plume movements, and phase properties (gas or particle) of I-131 and release rates

  4. Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majumdar, S. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmed by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.

  5. Validation of a loss of vacuum accident (LOVA) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellecci, C.; Gaudio, P. [EURATOM-Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy); Lupelli, I., E-mail: ivan.lupelli@uniroma2.it [EURATOM-Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy); Malizia, A. [EURATOM-Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy); Porfiri, M.T. [ENEA Nuclear Fusion Tecnologies, Via Enrico Fermi, 45 I-00044 Frascati (Italy); Quaranta, R.; Richetta, M. [EURATOM-Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy)

    2011-10-15

    Intense thermal loads in fusion devices occur during plasma disruptions, Edge Localized Modes (ELM) and Vertical Displacement Events (VDE). They will result in macroscopic erosion of the plasma facing materials and consequent accumulation of activated dust into the ITER Vacuum Vessel (VV). A recognized safety issue for future fusion reactors fueled with deuterium and tritium is the generation of sizeable quantities of dust. In case of LOVA, air inlet occurs due to the pressure difference between the atmospheric condition and the internal condition. It causes mobilization of the dust that can exit the VV threatening public safety because it may contain tritium, may be radioactive from activation products, and may be chemically reactive and/or toxic (Sharpe et al.; Sharpe and Humrickhouse). Several experiments have been conducted with STARDUST facility in order to reproduce a low pressurization rate (300 Pa/s) LOVA event in ITER due to a small air leakage for two different positions of the leak, at the equatorial port level and at the divertor port level, in order to evaluate the velocity magnitude in case of a LOVA that is strictly connected with dust mobilization phenomena. A two-dimensional (2D) modelling of STARDUST, made with the CFD commercial code FLUENT, has been carried out. The results of these simulations were compared against the experimental data for CFD code validation. For validation purposes, the CFD simulation data were extracted at the same locations as the experimental data were collected. In this paper, the authors present and discuss the computer-simulation data and compare them with data collected during the laboratory studies at the University of Rome 'Tor Vergata' Quantum Electronics and Plasmas lab.

  6. Development of RBMK-1500 Model for BDBA Analysis Using RELAP/SCDAPSIM Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uspuras, Eugenijus; Kaliatka, Algirdas

    This article discusses the specificity of RBMK (channel type, boiling water, graphite moderated) reactors and problems of Reactor Cooling System modelling employing computer codes. The article presents, how the RELAP/SCDAPSIM code, which is originally designed for modelling of accidents in vessel type reactors, is fit to simulate the phenomena in the RBMK reactor core and RCS in case of Beyond Design Basis Accidents. For this reason, use of two RELAP/SCDAPSIM models is recommended. First model with described complete geometry of RCS is recommended for analysis of initial phase of accident. The calculations results, received using this model, are used as boundary conditions in simplified model for simulation of later phases of severe accidents. The simplified model was tested comparing results of simulation performed using RELAP5 and RELAP/SCDAPSIM codes. As the typical example of BDBA, large break LOCA in reactor cooling system with failure of emergency core cooling system was analyzed. Use of developed models allows to receive behaviour of thermal-hydraulic parameters, temperatures of core components, amount of generated hydrogen due to steam-zirconium reaction. These parameters will be used as input for other special codes, designed for analysis of processes in reactor containment.

  7. Loss of vacuum accident (LOVA): Comparison of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow velocities against experimental data for the model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellecci, C.; Gaudio, P.; Lupelli, I. [Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' , Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy); Malizia, A., E-mail: malizia@ing.uniroma2.it [Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' , Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy); Porfiri, M.T. [ENEA Nuclear Fusion Technologies, Via Enrico Fermi 45 I, 00044, Frascati (Italy); Quaranta, R.; Richetta, M. [Faculty of Engineering, University of Rome ' Tor Vergata' , Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome (Italy)

    2011-06-15

    A recognized safety issue for future fusion reactors fueled with deuterium and tritium is the generation of sizeable quantities of dust. Several mechanisms resulting from material response to plasma bombardment in normal and off-normal conditions are responsible for generating dust of micron and sub-micron length scales inside the VV (Vacuum Vessel) of experimental fusion facilities. The loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), loss of coolant flow accidents (LOFA) and loss of vacuum accidents (LOVA) are types of accidents, expected in experimental fusion reactors like ITER, that may jeopardize components and plasma vessel integrity and cause dust mobilization risky for workers and public. The air velocity is the driven parameter for dust resuspension and its characterization, in the very first phase of the accidents, is critical for the dust release. To study the air velocity trend a small facility, Small Tank for Aerosol Removal and Dust (STARDUST), was set up at the University of Rome 'Tor Vergata', in collaboration with ENEA Frascati laboratories. It simulates a low pressurization rate (300 Pa/s) LOVA event in ITER due to a small air inlet from two different positions of the leak: at the equatorial port level and at the divertor port level. The velocity magnitude in STARDUST was investigated in order to map the velocity field by means of a punctual capacitive transducer placed inside STARDUST without obstacles. FLUENT was used to simulate the flow behavior for the same LOVA scenarios used during the experimental tests. The results of these simulations were compared against the experimental data for CFD code validation. For validation purposes, the CFD simulation data were extracted at the same locations as the experimental data were collected for the first four seconds, because at the beginning of the experiments the maximum velocity values (that could cause the almost complete dust mobilization) have been measured. In this paper the authors present and

  8. Development of a new aerosol monitoring system and its application in Fukushima nuclear accident related aerosol radioactivity measurement at the CTBT radionuclide station in Sidney of Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Weihua, E-mail: weihua.zhang@hc-sc.gc.ca [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1C1 (Canada); Bean, Marc; Benotto, Mike; Cheung, Jeff; Ungar, Kurt; Ahier, Brian [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1C1 (Canada)

    2011-12-15

    A high volume aerosol sampler ('Grey Owl') has been designed and developed at the Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada. Its design guidance is based on the need for a low operational cost and reliable sampler to provide daily aerosol monitoring samples that can be used as reference samples for radiological studies. It has been developed to provide a constant air flow rate at low pressure drops ({approx}3 kPa for a day sampling) with variations of less than {+-}1% of the full scale flow rate. Its energy consumption is only about 1.5 kW for a filter sampling over 22,000 standard cubic meter of air. It has been demonstrated in this Fukushima nuclear accident related aerosol radioactivity monitoring study at Sidney station, B.C. that the sampler is robust and reliable. The results provided by the new monitoring system have been used to support decision-making in Canada during an emergency response. - Highlights: > A new high volume aerosol sampler ('Grey Owl') has been developed in this study. > It operates at low pressure drops with low energy consumption. > The variation of air flow rate is less than {+-}1% of the full scale. > Fukushima accident nuclide monitoring at Sidney shows that it is robust and reliable.

  9. Prediction of hydrogen concentration in nuclear power plant containment under severe accidents using cascaded fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun, E-mail: magyna@chosun.ac.kr

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • We present a hydrogen-concentration prediction method in an NPP containment. • The cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) is used in this prediction model. • The CFNN model is much better than the existing FNN model. • This prediction can help prevent severe accidents in NPP due to hydrogen explosion. - Abstract: Recently, severe accidents in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have attracted worldwide interest since the Fukushima accident. If the hydrogen concentration in an NPP containment is increased above 4% in atmospheric pressure, hydrogen combustion will likely occur. Therefore, the hydrogen concentration must be kept below 4%. This study presents the prediction of hydrogen concentration using cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN). The CFNN model repeatedly applies FNN modules that are serially connected. The CFNN model was developed using data on severe accidents in NPPs. The data were obtained by numerically simulating the accident scenarios using the MAAP4 code for optimized power reactor 1000 (OPR1000) because real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents. The root-mean-square error level predicted by the CFNN model is below approximately 5%. It was confirmed that the CFNN model could accurately predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment. If NPP operators can predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment using the CFNN model, this prediction can assist them in preventing a hydrogen explosion.

  10. Test Data for USEPR Severe Accident Code Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. L. Rempe

    2007-05-01

    This document identifies data that can be used for assessing various models embodied in severe accident analysis codes. Phenomena considered in this document, which were limited to those anticipated to be of interest in assessing severe accidents in the USEPR developed by AREVA, include: • Fuel Heatup and Melt Progression • Reactor Coolant System (RCS) Thermal Hydraulics • In-Vessel Molten Pool Formation and Heat Transfer • Fuel/Coolant Interactions during Relocation • Debris Heat Loads to the Vessel • Vessel Failure • Molten Core Concrete Interaction (MCCI) and Reactor Cavity Plug Failure • Melt Spreading and Coolability • Hydrogen Control Each section of this report discusses one phenomenon of interest to the USEPR. Within each section, an effort is made to describe the phenomenon and identify what data are available modeling it. As noted in this document, models in US accident analysis codes (MAAP, MELCOR, and SCDAP/RELAP5) differ. Where possible, this report identifies previous assessments that illustrate the impact of modeling differences on predicting various phenomena. Finally, recommendations regarding the status of data available for modeling USEPR severe accident phenomena are summarized.

  11. Fukushima accident study using MELCOR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    The accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station stunned the world as the sequences played out over severals days and videos of hydrogen explosions were televised as they took place.The accidents all resulted in severe damage to the reactor cores and releases of radioactivity to the environment despite heroic measures had taken by the operating personnel.The following paper provides some background into the development of these accidents and their root causes,chief among them,the prolonged station blackout conditions that isolated the reactors from their ultimate heat sink — the ocean.The interpretations given in this paper are summarized from a recently completed report funded by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

  12. Ecosystem-based approach for the numerical modelling of {sup 137}Cs transfer to the western North Pacific plankton populations after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident - New approach for the modelling of radiocesium in pelagic food chain in the Northwestern Pacific after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belharet, Mokrane [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, SESURE/ LERCM, 83507 La Seyne-sur-mer (France); Laboratoire d' Aerologie, 14 av Eduard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Estournel, Claude [Laboratoire d' Aerologie, 14 av Eduard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Charmasson, Sabine [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, SESURE/ LERCM, 83507 La Seyne-sur-mer (France)

    2014-07-01

    Huge quantities of radiocesium ({sup 134}Cs and {sup 137}Cs) were released to the coastal northwestern Pacific ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, that occurred on 11 March 2011. The resultant radiocesium contamination was quickly transferred to marine biota resulting in elevated cesium levels measured in various organisms sampled over this area. This study aims to understand the mechanism of radiocesium behavior in the marine food chain under this non steady state situation (accident) and to estimate contamination levels in these organisms, by using a new modelling approach based on the coupling of three different models: a model of cesium dispersion in the ocean, an ecosystem model and a radioecological model. The model was run for 2 years (2011 and 2012) and was first applied to study marine plankton and planktonivorous fishes contamination. Results of spatio-temporal radiocesium activities in these different organisms, and calculated parameters like concentration ratios, biological half-lives, percentages of contamination coming from each compartment (food and water), and trophic transfer factors were compared to the observed values acquired before and after the accident (steady and non-steady states). (authors)

  13. Preliminary Assessment of the Loss of Flow Accident for PGSFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Andong; Choi, Yong Won; Bae, Moohoon [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    TRACE code have being considered as a candidate tool for SFR audit calculation for licensing review since 2012. On the basis of modeling and precalculation experience for the Demonstration Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (DSFR-600), TRACE code model for PGSFR was developed this year. In this paper, one of representing Design Base Event (DBE), Loss of Flow (LOF) accident was pre-calculated and Locked Rotor (LR) case was compared with LOF case since it could be a possible limiting case for LOF representing DBE. Sensitivity calculation for the LR case was implemented for identifying major parameters for the scenario. For the preparation of the review of licensing application for PGSFR, TRACE model for the PGSFR was developed and the loss of flow accident was precalculated. The locked pump rotor case was also calculated as a possible bounding case for the loss of flow scenario. Pre-calculation showed that the locked rotor case was similar or worst case to the loss of flow accident. Therefore, the locked rotor case should take into account in design base accident assessment of PGSFR. Sensitivity calculations for the rocked rotor case also studied for identification of unfixed design parameters influencing to estimation of inner surface temperature. Sensitivity result showed that the first temperature peak was largely influenced by reactor trip delay and second peak mostly influenced by pump coast down characteristic.

  14. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

    2014-05-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  15. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...

  16. Dynamics models and modeling of tree stand development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Rogozin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brief analysis of scientific works in Russia and in the CIS over the past 100 years. Logical and mathematical models consider the conceptual and show some of the results of their verification. It was found that the models include different laws and the parameters, the sum of which allows you to divide them into four categories: models of static states, development models, models of care for the natural forest and models of cultivation. Each category has fulfilled and fulfills its tasks in economic management. Thus, the model states in statics (table traverse growth played a prominent role in figuring out what may be the most productive (full stands in different regions of the country. However, they do not answer the question of what the initial states lead to the production of complete stands. In a study of the growth of stands used system analysis, and it is observed dominance of works studying static state, snatched from the biological time. Therefore, the real drama of the growth of stands remained almost unexplored. It is no accident there were «chrono-forestry» «plantation forestry» and even «non-traditional forestry», where there is a strong case of a number of new concepts of development stands. That is quite in keeping with Kuhn (Kuhn, 2009 in the forestry crisis began – there were alternative theories and coexist conflicting scientific schools. To develop models of stand development, it is proposed to use a well-known method of repeated observations within 10–20 years, in conjunction with the explanation of the history of the initial density. It mounted on the basis of studying the dynamics of its indicators: the trunk, crown overlap coefficient, the sum of volumes of all crowns and the relative length of the crown. According to these indicators, the researcher selects natural series of development stands with the same initial density. As a theoretical basis for the models it is possible to postulate the general properties of

  17. Facial trauma among victims of terrestrial transport accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Sérgio d'Avila; Kevan Guilherme Nóbrega Barbosa; Ítalo de Macedo Bernardino; Lorena Marques da Nóbrega; Patrícia Meira Bento; Efigênia Ferreira e Ferreira

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: In developing countries, terrestrial transport accidents - TTA, especially those involving automobiles and motorcycles - are a major cause of facial trauma, surpassing urban violence. OBJECTIVE: This cross-sectional census study attempted to determine facial trauma occurrence with terrestrial transport accidents etiology, involving cars, motorcycles, or accidents with pedestrians in the northeastern region of Brazil, and examine victims' socio-demographic characteri...

  18. Accident reduction factors and causal inference in traffic safety studies: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, G A

    2000-01-01

    Accident reduction factors are used to predict the change in accident occurrence which a countermeasure can be expected to cause. Since ethical and legal obstacles preclude the use of randomized experiments when evaluating traffic safety improvements, empirical support for the causal effectiveness of accident countermeasures comes entirely from observational studies. Drawing on developments in causal inference initiated by Donald Rubin, it is argued here that the mechanism by which sites are selected for application of a countermeasure should be included as part of a study's data model, and that when important features of the selection mechanism are neglected, existing methods for estimating accident reduction factors become inconsistent. A promising, but neglected, way out of these difficulties lies in developing rational countermeasure selection methods which also support valid causal inference of countermeasure effects.

  19. Development of a hydrogen diffusion gothic model of MARK III-containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Zhen-Yu [National Tsing Hua Univ., Dept. of Engineering and System Science, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Huang, Yu-Kai; Pei, Bau-Shei [National Tsing Hua Univ., Inst. of Nuclear Engineering Science, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Wen-Sheng [National Tsing Hua Univ., Nuclear Science and Technology Development Center, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chen, Yen-Shu [Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Nuclear Engineering Div., Taiyuan County, Taiwan (China)

    2015-07-15

    The accident that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is a reminder of the danger of hydrogen explosion within a reactor building. Sufficiently high hydrogen concentration may cause an explosion that could damage the structure, resulting in the release of radioisotopes into the environment. In the first part of this study, a gas diffusion experiment was performed, in which helium was used as the working fluid. An analytical model was also developed using the GOTHIC code and the model predictions of the helium distribution were found to be in good agreement with the experimentally measured data. In the second part of the study, a model of the Mark III containment of the Kuosheng Plant in Taiwan was developed, and was applied to a long-term station blackout (SBO) accident similar to that of the Fukushima plant. The hydrogen generation was calculated using the Modular Accident Analysis Program and was used as the boundary condition for the GOTHIC containment model. The simulation results revealed that the hydrogen concentration at the first floor of the wetwell in the containment reached 4 % 9.7 h after the accident. This indicated the possibility of dangerous conditions inside the containment. Although active hydrogen ignitors are already installed in the Kuosheng plant, the findings of this study indicate that it may be necessary to add passive recombiners to prolong an SBO event.

  20. Review of methodology for accident consequence assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D.L.; Soldat, J.K.; Watson, E.C.

    1978-09-01

    This report reviews current methodologies for reactor accident consequence analysis and describes areas where modifications are warranted. Methodologies reviewed are: (1) Models in Regulatory Guides 1.109, 1.111 and 1.113 used for evaluation of compliance with 10 CFR 50 Appendix I; (2) Models in Regulatory Guides used for evaluation of consequences from accidents of Classes 3-8; (3) Models for evaluation of Class 9 accidents presented in the Reactor Safety Study; and (4) Models in the Liquid Pathway Generic Study. The review is designed to aid in the ultimate goal of selection of a comprehensive set of models to extend the Class 9 methodology of the Reactor Safety Study to the analysis of Classes 3-8 accidents.

  1. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  2. Design and application of a tool for structuring, capitalizing and making more accessible information and lessons learned from accidents involving machinery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Samira; Sadeghi, Leyla; Tricot, Nicolas; Mathieu, Luc

    2016-10-11

    Accident reports are published in order to communicate the information and lessons learned from accidents. An efficient accident recording and analysis system is a necessary step towards improvement of safety. However, currently there is a shortage of efficient tools to support such recording and analysis. In this study we introduce a flexible and customizable tool that allows structuring and analysis of this information. This tool has been implemented under TEEXMA®. We named our prototype TEEXMA®SAFETY. This tool provides an information management system to facilitate data collection, organization, query, analysis and reporting of accidents. A predefined information retrieval module provides ready access to data which allows the user to quickly identify the possible hazards for specific machines and provides information on the source of hazards. The main target audience for this tool includes safety personnel, accident reporters and designers. The proposed data model has been developed by analyzing different accident reports.

  3. The Sustainable Development Model

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Sustainable development concept approaches quality of life in complexity, as economic, social and environmental issues, promoting the idea of balance between economic development, social equity, efficient utilization and environment conservation.     An essential condition for achieving sustainable development is the right mix of macroeconomic policies coherent, consistent with resources to ensure sustainability of materials and energy used for growth.

  4. 后福岛时期我国核电的发展%China's Nuclear Power Development After Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶奇蓁

    2012-01-01

    摘要:靠性及发展核电的必要性进行了探讨;介绍了福岛事故后美、法、俄、英、韩等核电国家均表示坚持发展核电的立场,并通过审查测试得出了目前的核电站是安全的结论。其次,论述了福岛事故后我国对核电站的安全检查以及核电设计中采取的相关安全措施,表明我国核电站的安全性是有保障的。然后,阐述了引进的三代核电APl000及EPR技术的特点;自主开发的三代核电技术在技术性能和安全水准上与国际先进水平相当。最后,分析了内陆地区核电建设的必要性和可行性,建议积极推进内陆核电站建设。。%After the Fukmshima Daiichi nuclearplant accident, the safety of developing nuclear power has aroused widely attentions, and governments have taken active measures to deal with the influence of this accident. Nuclear safety and the necessity of the nuclear power development were discussed firstly. After the Fukushima incident, United States, France, Russia, England, South Korea and other nuclear countries said that they all adhere to develop nuclear power actively. Through examinations and tests of the current nuclear power stations, it can be concluded that all the nuclear power stations are safe at present. After the accident, safety inspections as well as related safety measures which had been taken in China's nuclear power design were introduced, showing that the safety of nuclear power can be guaranteed in China. The characteristics of the introduced third-generation AP1000 and EPR unit nuclear power technologies were described and compared; results showed that performances of China's independently developed thirdgeneration nuclear power technologies have reached the international advanced level. Through the analysis on the necessity and the feasibility of the inland nuclear power construction, it has been suggested that the construction of the inland nuclear power station shall be put

  5. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  6. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  7. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident using a scaled-down model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Tae K., E-mail: taekyu8@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arcilesi, David J., E-mail: arcilesi.1@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kim, In H., E-mail: ihkim0730@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Sun, Xiaodong, E-mail: sun.200@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Christensen, Richard N., E-mail: rchristensen@uidaho.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Oh, Chang H. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Kim, Eung S., E-mail: kes7741@snu.ac.kr [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainty quantification and benchmark study are performed to validate an ANSYS FLUENT computer model for a depressurization process in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. • An ANSYS FLUENT computer model of a 1/8th scaled-down geometry of a VHTR hot exit plenum is presented, which is similar to the experimental test facility that has been constructed at The Ohio State University. • Using the computer model of the scaled-down geometry, the effects of the depressurization process and flow oscillations on the subsequent density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are examined computationally. • The effects of the scaled-down hot exit plenum internal structure temperature on the density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are investigated numerically. - Abstract: An air-ingress accident is considered to be one of the design basis accidents of a very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR). The air-ingress accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a complete break of the hot duct in what is referred to as a double-ended guillotine break. This leads to an initial loss of the primary helium coolant via depressurization. Following the depressurization process, the air–helium mixture in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core via the hot duct and hot exit plenum. In the event that air ingresses into the reactor vessel, the high-temperature graphite structures in the reactor core and hot plenum will chemically react with the air, which could lead to damage of in-core graphite structures and fuel, release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, core heat up, failure of the structural integrity of the system, and eventually the release of radionuclides to the environment. Studies in the available literature focus on the phenomena of the air ingress accident that occur after the termination of the depressurization, such as density-driven stratified flow, molecular diffusion, and natural circulation. However, a recent study

  8. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  9. [Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the prostate of coalminers of Donbas--liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

    2013-12-01

    Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in prostate of Donbas's coalminer-non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a prostatic gland changes.

  10. [Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the testis of coal miners of Donbas-liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

    2013-01-01

    Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in testis of Donbas's coalminer - non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident, which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a testis changes.

  11. Three-dimensional modeling of oceanic dispersal of land-derived multi-class suspended radionuclides after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchiyama, Yusuke; Yamanishi, Takafumi; Tsumune, Daisuke; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Onda, Yuichi

    2016-04-01

    Several oceanic dispersal modeling have been conducted on dissolved radionuclides leaked from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) where the direct release of radionuclides from the FNPP and atmospheric deposition are major sources. In the present study, we view freshwater discharge from the rivers as a missing piece for the inventory of the radionuclides in the ocean. The land-derived input introduces a time lag behind the direct release through hydrological process because these radionuclides mostly are attached to suspended particles that are transported quite differently to the dissolved matter. We thus develop a multi-class, non-cohesive sediment transport model based on ROMS along with a wave-enhanced bed boundary layer model of Soulsby (1995) and a stratigraphy submodel proposed by Blaas et al. (2007). Suspended 137Cs attached to the sediment is evaluated with an empirical power law proposed by Onda et al. (2014) as a function of specific surface area of the suspended particles. A 128 x 256 km domain with the grid resolution of dx = 250 m centered at the FNPP is configured as a test bed nested in the existing double nested ROMS domain with dx = 1 km (Uchiyama et al., 2012, 2013). The wave field is computed with an operational wave model SWAN (Booij et al., 1999) embedded in the JMA GVP-CWM wave reanalysis. A total of 20 rivers in the domain are configured as point sources of freshwater and sediments by exploiting a surface runoff model HYDREEMS (Toyoda et al., 2009) and an empirical discharge to sediment flux relation (Takekawa and Nihei, 2013). Fractions of three sediment classes, viz., fine sand, silt and clay, in the riverine discharge are determined empirically based on the outcome of a USLE-based river sediment modeling conducted by JAEA. The developed model successfully reproduces the dispersal of the land-derived sediments and their recirculation processes associated with resuspension and deposition in the Fukushima coast for 4 months

  12. Analysis of Fukushima Daiichi Accident Using HFACS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohamed, Saeed Almheiri [Korea Advanced Institue of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The shadow of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident is still too big and will last long. On the other hand, it could still teach us lots of lessons to better design and operate nuclear power plants. In this paper, we will be focusing on the Fukushima Daiichi accident, especially on human organizational factors. We will analyze the accident using Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) in order to better understand the organizational climate of TEPCO{sup 1} and NISA{sup 2} that led to Fukushima Daiichi Accident. HFACS was developed for the U. S. aviation industry and has been used at many industries like the rail and mining industries. We found that the HFACS to be greatly beneficial in investigating the latent and organizational causes for the accident. The application results show that the causes of Fukushima Daiichi accident were spread out from sharp end (i.e. Unsafe Act) to blunt end (i. e. Organizational Influences). This means that the corresponding countermeasures should cover from front line staff to management. Thus, we managed to develop a better understanding on how to prevent similar errors or violations. The incident and near-miss have a lot of helpful information because it may show the actual and latent deficiencies of complex systems. We applied the HFACS into Fukushima Daiichi accident to better locate the causes related to both sharp and blunt ends of operation of NPP. In order to derive useful lessons from the accident analysis, the analyst should try to find the similarities not differences from the incident. It is imperative that whatever accident/incident analysis systems we use, we should fully utilize the disastrous Fukushima accident.

  13. Safety evaluation of accident-tolerant FCM fueled core with SiC-coated zircalloy cladding for design-basis-accidents and beyond DBAs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chun, Ji-Han, E-mail: chunjh@kaeri.re.kr; Lim, Sung-Won; Chung, Bub-Dong; Lee, Won-Jae

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Thermal conductivity model of the FCM fuel was developed and adopted in the MARS. • Scoping analysis for candidate FCM FAs was performed to select feasible FA. • Preliminary safety criteria for FCM fuel and SiC/Zr cladding were set up. • Enhanced safety margin and accident tolerance for FCM-SiC/Zr core were demonstrated. - Abstract: The FCM fueled cores proposed as an accident tolerant concept is assessed against the design-basis-accident (DBA) and the beyond-DBA (BDBA) scenarios using MARS code. A thermal conductivity model of FCM fuel is incorporated in the MARS code to take into account the effects of irradiation and temperature that was recently measured by ORNL. Preliminary analyses regarding the initial stored energy and accident tolerant performance were carried out for the scoping of various cladding material candidates. A 16 × 16 FA with SiC-coated Zircalloy cladding was selected as the feasible conceptual design through a preliminary scoping analysis. For a selected design, safety analyses for DBA and BDBA scenarios were performed to demonstrate the accident tolerance of the FCM fueled core. A loss of flow accident (LOFA) scenario was selected for a departure-from-nucleate-boiling (DNB) evaluation, and large-break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) scenario for peak cladding temperature (PCT) margin evaluation. A control element assembly (CEA) ejection accident scenario was selected for peak fuel enthalpy and temperature. Moreover, a station blackout (SBO) and LBLOCA without a safety injection (SI) scenario were selected as a BDBA. It was demonstrated that the DBA safety margin of the FCM core is satisfied and the time for operator actions for BDBA s is evaluated.

  14. Cold Spray Coating Technique with FeCrAl Alloy Powder for Developing Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Dong Jun; Kim, Hyun Gil; Park, Jeong Yong; Jung, Yang Il; Park, Jung Hwan; Koo, Yang Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Various approaches to enhance safety have been suggested, replacing current Zr-based alloys for fuel cladding with advanced materials exhibiting lower oxidation rates can be a basic solution. Many advanced materials such as FeCrAl alloys; Mn+1AXn, (MAX) phases, where n = 1 to 3, M is an early transition metal, A is an A-group (mostly IIIA and IVA, or groups 13 and 14) element and X is either carbon or nitrogen; Mo; and SiC are being considered as possible candidates. Among the proposed fuel cladding substitutes, Fe-based alloys are one of the most promising candidates owing to their excellent formability, high strength, and oxidation resistance at high temperature. In this work, the ATF technology concept of Fe-based alloy coating on the existing Zr-alloy cladding was considered and results on the optimization study for fabrication of coated tube samples were described. Result obtained from high temperature oxidation test under steam environment at 1200 .deg. C indicates that FeCrAl alloy coated Zr metal matrix may maintain its integrity during LOCA. This means that accident tolerance of FeCrAl alloy coated Zr cladding sample had been greatly improved compared to that of existing Zr-based alloy fuel cladding.

  15. Design and Development of Traffic Accident Pre-warning System Based on iOS%基于 iOS 的交通事故预警系统设计与开发

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王春; 王鸣宇; 吕傲冰; 丁世杰

    2015-01-01

    为解决交通事故产生的道路拥堵和2次事故,设计了基于iOS的交通事故预警系统。通过对不同类型的交通信息进行对比,采用文字和语音作为预警信息。在MyEclipse环境下开发了交通事故管理服务平台并将其应用于Tomcat服务器。使用Objective-C语言进行编程,在Xcode环境下开发了交通事故预警应用程序。%In order to settle road jam and secondary accidents caused by traffic accidents , this paper designs a traffic accident pre -warning system based on iOS .By comparing traffic information of different types, the paper adopts text and voice as pre -warning information.The paper develops a traffic accident management service platform in MyEclipse environment and applies it to Tomcat server .The paper adopts Objective-C language for programming and develops a traffic accident pre -warning program in Xcode environment .

  16. Review on gas-voiding models for HCDA (Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident) initiating phase in LMR analysis (I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, W. P.; Kwon, Y. M.; Hahn, D. H.; Suk, S. D. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-12-01

    The present review report introduces the existing analysis codes and physical modeling of two-phase flow associated with initiating event of HCDA in Liquid Metal Reactors for the effective study in the future, because the related research has been systematically carried out in Korea compared with other areas. The description in this report is specifically addressed to the results yielded from careful review of the technical concepts on the two-phase flow modeling in the SAS2A code which was developed in ANL. The report is prepared in 2 parts based on the definite physical phenomena. The liquid slug and gas behavior models are main representations in the part (I) and (II), respectively. In this regard, it is expected that this report provide a fundamental knowledge on the two-phase flow model in LMR and, thus, contribute to establishment of the necessary HCDA analysis technology concerned with the LMR development in Korea. (author)

  17. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  18. An evaluation of spindle-shaft seizure accident sequences for the Schenck Dynamic Balancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bott, T.F.; Fischer, S.R.

    1998-11-01

    This study was conducted at the request of the USDOE/AL Dynamic Balancer Project Team to develop a set of representative accident sequences initiated by rapid seizure of the spindle shaft of the Schenck dynamic balancing machine used in the mass properties testing activities in Bay 12-60 at the Pantex Plant. This Balancer is used for balancing reentry vehicles. In addition, the study identified potential causes of possible spindle-shaft seizure leading to a rapid deceleration of the rotating assembly. These accident sequences extend to the point that the reentry vehicle either remains in stable condition on the balancing machine or leaves the machine with some translational and rotational motion. Fault-tree analysis was used to identify possible causes of spindle-shaft seizure, and failure modes and effects analysis identified the results of shearing of different machine components. Cause-consequence diagrams were used to help develop accident sequences resulting from the possible effects of spindle-shaft seizure. To make these accident sequences physically reasonable, the analysts used idealized models of the dynamics of rotating masses. Idealized physical modeling also was used to provide approximate values of accident parameters that lead to branching down different accident progression paths. The exacerbating conditions of balancing machine over-speed and improper assembly of the fixture to the face plate are also addressed.

  19. CONTAIN-LMR程序中池式钠火事故分析计算模型的验证%Verification of sodium pool fire accident analysis model in CONTAIN-LMR code

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李世锐; 任丽霞; 胡文军; 乔鹏瑞

    2016-01-01

    CONTAIN-LMR是针对以液态钠为冷却剂的反应堆而开发的安全壳事故一体化分析程序。我国目前的CONTAIN-LMR程序版本为2000年左右从法国引进,还未进行过面向工程设计的系统性地程序开发和验证。本文主要针对 CONTAIN-LMR 程序中模拟池式钠火事故的分析模型进行详细分析,并采用国际上的池式钠火实验进行验证,实验验证结果表明 CONTAIN-LMR 程序可以较准确地模拟池式钠火事故造成的钠工艺间内的温度、压力升高及放射性钠气溶胶行为。本文的研究结果初步表明CONTAIN-LMR程序可用于钠冷快堆的钠火事故分析。%CONTAIN-LMR is an integrated code which aims at sodium cooled fast reactor containment accident analysis. The current version of the CONTAIN-LMR code in China was imported from France around 2000,program development and verification of engineering level design has not undertaken systematically. This paper makes a detailed analysis for the models of sodium pool fire accident simulation in CONTAIN-LMR code,and uses international sodium pool fire experiments for verification,the result shows that the CONTAIN-LMR code can simulate the temperature,pressure rising and radioactive sodium aerosol behavior in containment caused by sodium pool fire accidents. The studies in this paper indicated that the CONTAIN-LMR code can be used for the analysis of sodium fire accidents in sodium cooled fast reactor.

  20. Apparatus development for measurement of (134)Cs and (137)Cs radioactivity of soil contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajimoto, Tsuyoshi; Endo, Satoru; Tanaka, Kenichi; Okashiro, Yasuharu; Kai, Hiroaki; Fujii, Syuuji; Mishima, Atsushi; Matsubara, Takahide; Yoshida, Shinji

    2016-09-01

    We developed an apparatus containing a NaI(Tl) scintillator to measure the (134)Cs and (137)Cs radioactivity of soil contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The unfolding method with the least-squares technique was used to determine the radioactivity. Detector responses for each radionuclide in soil were calculated with EGS5 code for the unfolding method. The radionuclides that were measured were (40)K, (134)Cs, (137)Cs, (208)Tl, (214)Bi, and (228)Ac. The measured spectrum agreed well with the spectrum calculated from the response matrix and measured radioactivities. The unfolding method allows us to use the NaI(Tl) scintillator despite the overlap of peaks.

  1. Impact of traffic congestion on road accidents: a spatial analysis of the M25 motorway in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Quddus, Mohammed A; Ison, Stephen G

    2009-07-01

    Traffic congestion and road accidents are two external costs of transport and the reduction of their impacts is often one of the primary objectives for transport policy makers. The relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents however is not apparent and less studied. It is speculated that there may be an inverse relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents, and as such this poses a potential dilemma for transport policy makers. This study aims to explore the impact of traffic congestion on the frequency of road accidents using a spatial analysis approach, while controlling for other relevant factors that may affect road accidents. The M25 London orbital motorway, divided into 70 segments, was chosen to conduct this study and relevant data on road accidents, traffic and road characteristics were collected. A robust technique has been developed to map M25 accidents onto its segments. Since existing studies have often used a proxy to measure the level of congestion, this study has employed a precise congestion measurement. A series of Poisson based non-spatial (such as Poisson-lognormal and Poisson-gamma) and spatial (Poisson-lognormal with conditional autoregressive priors) models have been used to account for the effects of both heterogeneity and spatial correlation. The results suggest that traffic congestion has little or no impact on the frequency of road accidents on the M25 motorway. All other relevant factors have provided results consistent with existing studies.

  2. Ruthenium release from fuel in accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brillant, G.; Marchetto, C.; Plumecocq, W. [Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, DPAM, SEMIC, LETR and LIMSI, Saint-Paul-Lez-Durance (France)

    2010-07-01

    During a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident, fission products may be released from the fuel matrix and then reach the containment building and the environment. Ruthenium is a very hazardous fission product that can be highly and rapidly released in some accident scenarios. The impact of the atmosphere redox properties, temperature, and fuel burn-up on the ruthenium release is discussed. In order to improve the evaluation of the radiological impact by accident codes, a model of the ruthenium release from fuel is proposed using thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. In addition, a model of fuel oxidation under air is described. Finally, these models have been integrated in the ASTEC accident code and validation calculations have been performed on several experimental tests. (orig.)

  3. Communication and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the conc

  4. Accidents - personal factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaitsev, S.L.; Tsygankov, A.V.

    1982-03-01

    This paper evaluates influence of selected personal factors on accident rate in underground coal mines in the USSR. Investigations show that so-called organizational factors cause from 80 to 85% of all accidents. About 70% of the organizational factors is associated with social, personal and economic features of personnel. Selected results of the investigations carried out in Donbass mines are discussed. Causes of miner dissatisfaction are reviewed: 14% is caused by unsatisfactory working conditions, 21% by repeated machine failures, 16% by forced labor during days off, 14% by unsatisfactory material supply, 16% by hard physical labor, 19% by other reasons. About 25% of miners injured during work accidents are characterized as highly professionally qualified with automatic reactions, and about 41% by medium qualifications. About 60% of accidents is caused by miners with less than a 3 year period of service. About 15% of accidents occurs during the first month after a miner has returned from a leave. More than 30% of accidents occurs on the first work day after a day or days off. Distribution of accidents is also presented: 19% of accidents occurs during the first 2 hours of a shift, 36% from the second to the fourth hour, and 45% occurs after the fourth hour and before the shift ends.

  5. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  6. Applications of Human Error Analysis Model in Ship Oil-spill Accident Emergency Response%人的失误模型在船舶溢油事故应急中的应用分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张欣

    2008-01-01

    Emergency response for ship oil-spill accident should be regarded as a dynamic complex system consisting of human, machine and organization. Recently the reliability evaluation and optimization of machine and organization in emergency response attached much attention, but the human reliability was ignored in the research. This igno-rance will negatively affect the reliability of the whole emergency response system. Ship oil-spill accident not only leads to heave losses of money and human lives, but also produces serious environmental pollutions. Consequently more and more international maritime institutions have attached highly importance to it. In an attempt to improve the reliability of emergency response for ship oil-spill accident, a human error analysis model was developed considering features of ship oil-spill accident. The model was developed on a theoretical basis with reference to cognitive psychology and HRA. It analyzed three types of human errors including cognitive error, decisive error and act error and four types factors causing human error including external environment, organization, operator own factor and human-machine interface. Finally an example of ineffective oil-ship accident emergency re-sponse has been analyzed with CREAM ( Cognitive reliability and error analysis method), a classical second genera-tion HRA methods, in order to test the feasibility and efficiency of HRA model.%船舶溢油事故应急是一个由人、机、组织设施所组成的复杂的动态系统.近年来,针对设施、组织可靠性之评估及优化研究较多,然对应急事件与人的可靠性研究,尚处空白状态.任何忽视人的因素,对应急系统整体可靠性的优化与改善都将受到不利影响.当前,船舶溢油事故不仅使财产损失、人员伤亡,且对人类赖于生存之环境造成严重污染.因此,已引起各国海事机构的高度重视.为提高船舶溢油应急过程的可靠性,基于船舶溢油事故应急特点,

  7. Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

    2011-09-01

    Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given.

  8. Iodine chemistry at severe accidents. A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in the field. APRI 5 report. Part I: Iodine chemistry at hypothetical severe accidents. A review of the state-of-the-art 2003. Part II: A comparison of our knowledge on iodine chemistry and fission products with the current models used in MAAP 4.0.5; Jodkemi under svaara haverier. En sammanstaellnig och vaerdering av kunskapslaeget inom omraadet. APRI 5 rapport. Del I: Jodkemi vid hypotetiska svaara haverier. En genomgaang av kunskapslaeget aar 2003. Del II: Jaemfoerelse av kunskapslaeget om jodkemi och fissionsprodukter med aktuella modeller i MAAP 4.0.5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, Jan-Olov [Liljenzins data och kemikonsult, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2005-01-01

    The current report tries to summarize and analyze the state-of-the-art on Iodine chemistry relevant to the conditions expected during severe accidents in nuclear power plants. This has made it necessary to compare a considerable amount of data, new as well as old, in order to try to find the reasons behind some changes in the expected chemical behaviour of Iodine. In a few cases this has been far from simple. Many numerical values are given in this report. However, me numbers given should not be used in a non-critical way because they are often deduced from measurements whose interpretation depends on various kinds of systematic differences and assumptions with regard to technique, 'known' constants, and models applied. The most important observation today is that one can no longer uncritically assume that iodine is only released and transported as cesium iodide. The considerable effect that control rod material (including other construction materials) can have on the way in which an accident develops and on its iodine chemistry is clearly seen from the results of the experiments performed within the PHEBUS FP project. The second part of the report evaluates new knowledge on Iodine chemistry and Iodine behaviour of importance in severe nuclear reactor accidents. Also some new information regarding the behaviour and chemistry of other fission products has been collected. In the light of this information, the current modelling of Iodine behaviour in the MAAP code version 4.0.5 has been investigated. No modelling errors have been found. However, some of the equations used to calculate the vapour pressure of the components in the AlC-alloy used in PWR control rods give questionable results. An error in the MAAP manual was found which should be corrected. Finally, some suggestions are given for future improvements in the modelling of severe accidents used in MAAP for both BWRs and PWRs.

  9. Educational Game Development Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Emin Korkusuz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent research on the subject shows that students spend more time on computer games than other activities such as reading book or watching TV. It is possible that this time-consuming activity can become much more effective by educator-game sector cooperation. Which type of game students prefer mostly; how the educational content can be articulated the games without diminishing the playability and enjoyableness of it; and the impact of the competition in the games on process and students are just several titles examined in the studies. This scope presents the types of computer game, qualities of educational games, and educational games designs which are recommended for developing educational games. It also presents a set of knowledge about the importance of educational games in mathematics and physic education, and some studies on this field. In the scope, some strategies, about educational game development process, are recommended educators and software developers in the sector who intend to develop educational games based on the literature.

  10. Bus accident severity and passenger injury: evidence from Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    examining occurrence of injury to bus passengers. Results Bus accident severity is positively related to (i) the involvement of vulnerable road users, (ii) high speed limits, (iii) night hours, (iv) elderly drivers of the third party involved, and (v) bus drivers and other drivers crossing in yellow or red...... principle of sustainable transit and advance the vision “every accident is one too many”. Methods Bus accident data were retrieved from the national accident database for the period 2002–2011. A generalized ordered logit model allows analyzing bus accident severity and a logistic regression enables...

  11. Consequences of Windscale accident (October 1957) and study of the validity of the Sutton's mathematical model of atmospheric diffusion (1960); Etude des consequences de l'accident de Windscale (Octobre 1957) et de la validite du modele mathematique de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton (1960)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doury, A. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (S.C.R.G.R.) Saclay (France).Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires; Martin, J.J. [Electricite de France (EDF)(S.L.P.R.), 37 - Chinon (France)

    1960-07-01

    The reactor accident that happens at the number 1 pile of Windscale in 1957 was followed by a discharge of radioactive products into the atmosphere from the 1.X.1957 at 4.30 PM to the 12.X.1957 at 3.10 PM. On october the 11{sup th} it was possible to say that there was no more risk either of external irradiation or inhalation. But in adopting a M.A.C. of 0,1 {mu}curie of iodine 131 per litre of milk, the Authority had to control the milk delivery till november 23{sup rd} on a 500 km{sup 2} area. On the other hand, this exceptional accident permit to verify that Sutton's atmospheric diffusion model could give an easy means to foresee, with a sufficient approximation, the consequences of a dispersion of radioactive products into the atmosphere. (author) [French] L'accident survenu a la pile numero 1 de Windscale en 1957 a entraine l'emission de matieres radioactives dans l'atmosphere du 10 octobre a 16h30 au 12 octobre a 15h10. Le 11 octobre, on pouvait dire qu'il n'y avait plus de risque d'irradiation externe ni de danger par inhalation. Mais en adoptant une C.M.A. de 0,1 {mu}curie d'iode 131 par litre de lait, les autorites ont du reglementer la consommation du lait jusqu'au 23 novembre sur une etendue d'environ 500 km{sup 2}. D'autre part, cet accident exceptionnel a permis de verifier que le modele de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton pouvait fournir un moyen commode de prevoir avec une approximation suffisante les consequences d'une dispersion de produits radioactifs dans l'atmosphere. (auteur)

  12. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  13. Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of atmospheric dispersion model with improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Katata

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1 accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data with atmospheric model simulations from WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information, and simulations from the oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM, both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fogwater depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activation and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te, was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The fallout to the ocean surface calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data for the SEA-GEARN-FDM calculations. Reverse and inverse source-term estimation methods based on coupling the simulations from both models was adopted using air dose rates and concentrations, and sea surface concentrations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, the morning of 13 March after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (Safely Relief Valve at Unit 2 was opened three times, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal

  14. Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of atmospheric dispersion model with improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katata, G.; Chino, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Terada, H.; Ota, M.; Nagai, H.; Kajino, M.; Draxler, R.; Hort, M. C.; Malo, A.; Torii, T.; Sanada, Y.

    2014-06-01

    Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data with atmospheric model simulations from WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), and simulations from the oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM, both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fogwater depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The fallout to the ocean surface calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data for the SEA-GEARN-FDM calculations. Reverse and inverse source-term estimation methods based on coupling the simulations from both models was adopted using air dose rates and concentrations, and sea surface concentrations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, the morning of 13 March after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (Safely Relief Valve) at Unit 2 was opened three times, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of

  15. Graphite Oxidation Simulation in HTR Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Genk, Mohamed

    2012-10-19

    Massive air and water ingress, following a pipe break or leak in steam-generator tubes, is a design-basis accident for high-temperature reactors (HTRs). Analysis of these accidents in both prismatic and pebble bed HTRs requires state-of-the-art capability for predictions of: 1) oxidation kinetics, 2) air helium gas mixture stratification and diffusion into the core following the depressurization, 3) transport of multi-species gas mixture, and 4) graphite corrosion. This project will develop a multi-dimensional, comprehensive oxidation kinetics model of graphite in HTRs, with diverse capabilities for handling different flow regimes. The chemical kinetics/multi-species transport model for graphite burning and oxidation will account for temperature-related changes in the properties of graphite, oxidants (O2, H2O, CO), reaction products (CO, CO2, H2, CH4) and other gases in the mixture (He and N2). The model will treat the oxidation and corrosion of graphite in geometries representative of HTR core component at temperatures of 900°C or higher. The developed chemical reaction kinetics model will be user-friendly for coupling to full core analysis codes such as MELCOR and RELAP, as well as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes such as CD-adapco. The research team will solve governing equations for the multi-dimensional flow and the chemical reactions and kinetics using Simulink, an extension of the MATLAB solver, and will validate and benchmark the model's predictions using reported experimental data. Researchers will develop an interface to couple the validated model to a commercially available CFD fluid flow and thermal-hydraulic model of the reactor , and will perform a simulation of a pipe break in a prismatic core HTR, with the potential for future application to a pebble-bed type HTR.

  16. Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The

  17. Dynamics Model for Bird Strike Accident Early Warning%飞机抗鸟撞的预警动力学模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘双燕; 邓琼; 陈春林

    2012-01-01

    为预防鸟撞事故,根据事故发生过程和开放系统的熵演变过程有很大相似性这一特点,采用信息熵理论解释事故发生过程,进而建立鸟撞事故发生和预警的动力学模型,揭示引发事故的主要原因和预防事故的对策.在此基础上,采用基于熵的综合评价方法,对造成事故的多个因素进行对比分析和综合评价,得出鸟撞事故中飞行时间(季节和昼夜2个因素)、飞行高度、飞机的结构、遭遇的鸟类和发生区域等5大类共6个因素的熵值.结果表明,飞鸟种类的熵值最大,为0.4106;其次是飞机结构因素.因此,预防鸟撞事故应该从飞鸟控制和飞机结构设计着手.%A system dynamics model for bird strike' s occurrence was introduced to study the Bird Strike disaster on airplane. The process of bird strike' s occurrence was explained by information entropy theory based on similarity of the process of bird strike' s occurrence to the evolution of the entropy of an open system. Main causes of the bird strike accident and the countermeasures for preventing it were revealed. U-sing the comprehensive evaluation method based on information entropy, entropy values of the 6 factors causing the accident ( including kind of birds, the timing of the flight, the height of the flight, the structure of aircraft and the area of bird strike' s occurrence) were calculated. The result shows that the kind of birds is the most important factor in bird strike accident, of which entropy value is 0. 410 6, followed by the aircraft structure factor. In a word, bird strike accident prevention should start from the bird control and aircraft structural design.

  18. Advanced sodium fast reactor accident source terms :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powers, Dana Auburn; Clement, Bernard; Denning, Richard; Ohno, Shuji; Zeyen, Roland

    2010-09-01

    An expert opinion elicitation has been used to evaluate phenomena that could affect releases of radionuclides during accidents at sodium-cooled fast reactors. The intent was to identify research needed to develop a mechanistic model of radionuclide release for licensing and risk assessment purposes. Experts from the USA, France, the European Union, and Japan identified phenomena that could affect the release of radionuclides under hypothesized accident conditions. They qualitatively evaluated the importance of these phenomena and the need for additional experimental research. The experts identified seven phenomena that are of high importance and have a high need for additional experimental research: High temperature release of radionuclides from fuel during an energetic event Energetic interactions between molten reactor fuel and sodium coolant and associated transfer of radionuclides from the fuel to the coolant Entrainment of fuel and sodium bond material during the depressurization of a fuel rod with breached cladding Rates of radionuclide leaching from fuel by liquid sodium Surface enrichment of sodium pools by dissolved and suspended radionuclides Thermal decomposition of sodium iodide in the containment atmosphere Reactions of iodine species in the containment to form volatile organic iodides. Other issues of high importance were identified that might merit further research as development of the mechanistic model of radionuclide release progressed.

  19. Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A; Mahura, A; Jaffe, D; Thaning, L; Bergman, R; Andres, R

    2002-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.

  20. Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baklanov, A. E-mail: alb@dmi.min.dk; Mahura, A.; Jaffe, D.; Thaning, L.; Bergman, R.; Andres, R

    2002-07-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.

  1. A dynamic model to estimate the dose rate of marine biota (K-BIOTADYN- M) and its application to the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keum, Dong-Kwon; Jun, In; Kim, Byeong-Ho; Lim, Kwang-Muk; Choi, Yong-ho [Nuclear Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeodaero, Yuseong, Daejeon, 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes a dynamic compartment model, K-BIOTA-DYN-M, to assess the activity concentration and dose rate of marine biota when the seawater activity varies with time, which is likely for the early phase after an accident. The model consists of seven compartments, phytoplankton, zooplankton, prey fish, benthic fish, crustacean, mollusk, and macro-algae. The phytoplankton compartment is assumed to be instantaneously in equilibrium with the seawater owing to the huge mass of the plankton in sea, and thus the activity of the phytoplankton is estimated using the equilibrium concentration ratio. The other compartments intake the radioactivity from both water and food, and lose the radioactivity by the biological elimination and radioactivity decay. Given the seawater activity, a set of ordinary differential equations representing the activity balance for biota is solved to obtain the time-variant activity concentration of biota, which is subsequently used to calculate the internal dose rate. The key parameters include the water intake rate, the daily feeding rate, the assimilation efficiency of radionuclides from food, the occupancy factor, and so on. The model has been applied to predict the activity concentration and dose rate of marine biota as a result the Fukushima nuclear accident on March 11, 2011. Using the seawater activities measured at three locations near the Fukushima NPPs, the time-variant activity concentration and dose rate during a few months after an accident for the seven model biota have been estimated. The preliminary results showed that the activity concentration of {sup 137}Cs in fish inhabiting the sea close to the Fukushima Daiichi NPP increased up to tenth-thousands of Bq/kg around the peak time of the seawater activity. This level is much higher than the food consumption restriction level for human protection; however, the estimated total dose rates (internal + external) for biota during the entire simulation time were all much less

  2. Models for fleet sizing and localization of fire-fighting for attendance to accidents in platforms; Modelos para dimensionamento de frota e localizacao de embarcacoes fire-fighting para atendimento a acidentes em plataformas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medina, Afonso Celso; Brinati, Marco Antonio [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica

    1996-12-31

    The increasing degree of use of maritime resources claims the establishment of a modern protection and assistance system to prevent and control maritime accidents. The usual safety systems for maritime accidents, generally, have the aid of specialized fleets in the attendance. This work presents models to determine the location and the profile of a specialized fleet for fire fighting, in order to guarantee the adequate attendance to expected accidents in a marine oil field. To modelling the problem, two means of analysis are considered: a deterministic model of integer programming and a probabilistic model. Considering the geographic location and the size of platforms as input data, the deterministic model establishes, among the available vessels, the fleet profile and location in order to minimize the fleet cost assuring the attendance to each platform within the standard requirements. The probabilistic model starts from a given solution for the fleet profile and vessel location and, by means of estimating the utilization factors of each vessel, proposes possible improvements in the fleet location, in order to maximize the probability of attending the accidents. A simulation model was elaborated to validate the results from the probabilistic model. The obtained results indicate the usefulness of every model, not only to a rational location problem solution, but also, for the analysis of the operational fleet performance. (author) 11 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. Upgrading the safety toolkit: Initiatives of the accident analysis subgroup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Kula, K.R.; Chung, D.Y.

    1999-07-01

    Since its inception, the Accident Analysis Subgroup (AAS) of the Energy Facility Contractors Group (EFCOG) has been a leading organization promoting development and application of appropriate methodologies for safety analysis of US Department of Energy (DOE) installations. The AAS, one of seven chartered by the EFCOG Safety Analysis Working Group, has performed an oversight function and provided direction to several technical groups. These efforts have been instrumental toward formal evaluation of computer models, improving the pedigree on high-use computer models, and development of the user-friendly Accident Analysis Guidebook (AAG). All of these improvements have improved the analytical toolkit for best complying with DOE orders and standards shaping safety analysis reports (SARs) and related documentation. Major support for these objectives has been through DOE/DP-45.

  4. MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardner, Robin; Zodiatis, George

    2016-04-01

    MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments Robin Lardner and George Zodiatis Oceanography Center, University of Cyprus, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus MEDSLIK is a well established 3D oil spill model that predicts the transport, fate and weathering of oil spills and is used by several response agencies and institutions around the Mediterranean, the Black seas and worldwide. MEDSLIK has been used operationally for real oil spill accidents and for preparedness in contingency planning within the framework of pilot projects with REMPEC-Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea and EMSA-European Maritime Safety Agency. MEDSLIK has been implemented in many EU funded projects regarding oil spill predictions using the operational ocean forecasts, as for example the ECOOP, NEREIDs, RAOP-Med, EMODNET MedSea Check Point. Within the frame of MEDESS4MS project, MEDSLIK is at the heart of the MEDESS4MS multi model oil spill prediction system. The MEDSLIK oil spill model contains among other, the following features: a built-in database with 240 different oil types characteristics, assimilation of oil slick observations from in-situ or aerial, to correct the predictions, virtual deployment of oil booms and/or oil skimmers/dispersants, continuous or instantaneous oil spills from moving or drifting ships whose slicks merge can be modelled together, multiple oil spill predictions from different locations, backward simulations for tracking the source of oil spill pollution, integration with AIS data upon the availability of AIS data, sub-surface oil spills at any given water depth, coupling with SAR satellite data. The MEDSLIK can be used for operational intervention for any user-selected region in the world if the appropriate coastline, bathymetry and meteo-ocean forecast files are provided. MEDSLIK oil spill model has been extensively validated in the Mediterranean Sea, both in real oil spill incidents (i.e. during the Lebanese oil pollution crisis in

  5. Numerical Reconstruction and Injury Biomechanism in a Car-Pedestrian Crash Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU Dong-hua; LI Zheng-dong; SHAO Yu; FENG Hao; CHEN Jian-guo; LIU Ning-guo; HUANG Ping; CHEN Yi-jiu

    2012-01-01

    Objective To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification.Methods An integration of multi-body dynamic,finite elcment (FE),and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident.The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy.The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model.The collision FE models of head and leg,developed from CT scans of human remains,were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters.The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress,relative displacement,strain and stress fringes.Results The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries,illustrated through the FE methods,were consistent with the classical injury theories.Conclusion The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

  6. Practical approaches in accident analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, M.

    An accident analysis technique based on successive application of structural response, explosion dynamics, gas cloud formation, and plant operation failure mode models is proposed. The method takes into account the nonideal explosion characteristic of a deflagration in the unconfined cloud. The resulting pressure wave differs significantly from a shock wave and the response of structures like lamp posts and walls can differ correspondingly. This gives a more realistic insight into explosion courses than a simple TNT-equivalent approach.

  7. Thermal-hydraulic analysis best-estimate of an accident in the containment a PWR-W reactor with GOTHIC code using a 3D model detailed; Analisis termo-hidraulico best-estimate de un accidente en contencion de un reactor PWR-W con el codigo GOTHIC mediante un modelo 3D detallado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bocanegra, R.; Jimenez, G.

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this project will be a model of containment PWR-W with the GOTHIC code that allows analyzing the behavior detailed after a design basis accident or a severe accident. Unlike the models normally used in codes of this type, the analysis will take place using a three-dimensional model of the containment, being this much more accurate.

  8. The effect of roundabout design features on cyclist accident rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hels, Tove; Orozova-Bekkevold, Ivanka

    2007-01-01

    yearly rate of cyclist accidents on one hand and roundabout geometry, age and traffic volume (vehicles and cyclists) on the other. We related all roundabout cyclist accidents recorded by the hospital emergency department of the town of Odense, Denmark, through the years 1999-2003 (N = 171) to various...... geometric features, age and traffic volume of all roundabouts on the Danish island of Funen (N = 88). Cyclist and vehicle volumes turned out to be significant predictors in most of our models-the higher the volumes, the more accidents. Moreover, potential vehicle speed was a significant predictor, and so...... was age of the roundabout-older roundabouts related to more accidents and higher accident probability. Excluding 48 single cyclist accidents strengthened the relationship between accidents on one hand and vehicle and cyclist volume and potential vehicle speed on the other. This stresses the significance...

  9. Material Modeling of Space Shuttle Leading Edge and External Tank Materials For Use in the Columbia Accident Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carney, Kelly; Melis, Matthew; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Lyle, Karen H.; Gabrys, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    Upon the commencement of the analytical effort to characterize the impact dynamics and damage of the Space Shuttle Columbia leading edge due to External Tank insulating foam, the necessity of creating analytical descriptions of these materials became evident. To that end, material models were developed of the leading edge thermal protection system, Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC), and a low density polyurethane foam, BX-250. Challenges in modeling the RCC include its extreme brittleness, the differing behavior in compression and tension, and the anisotropic fabric layup. These effects were successfully included in LS-DYNA Material Model 58, *MAT_LAMINATED_ COMPOSITE_ FABRIC. The differing compression and tension behavior was modeled using the available damage parameters. Each fabric layer was given an integration point in the shell element, and was allowed to fail independently. Comparisons were made to static test data and coupon ballistic impact tests before being utilized in the full scale analysis. The foam's properties were typical of elastic automotive foams; and LS-DYNA Material Model 83, *MAT_FU_CHANG_FOAM, was successfully used to model its behavior. Material parameters defined included strain rate dependent stress-strain curves for both loading and un-loading, and for both compression and tension. This model was formulated with static test data and strain rate dependent test data, and was compared to ballistic impact tests on load-cell instrumented aluminum plates. These models were subsequently utilized in analysis of the Shuttle leading edge full scale ballistic impact tests, and are currently being used in the Return to Flight Space Shuttle re-certification effort.

  10. Relationship between speed and traffic accident and speed limit on freeway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Guo-zhu; PEI Yu-long

    2008-01-01

    To develop an equation between discrete degree of speed and traffic accident on freeway in China and give reasonable suggestions of speed management, the relation model was established between speed standard deviation and accident rate per 100,000,000 vehicle kilometers by regression analysis. The model shows that the more discrete is the speed distribution, the higher is the accident rate, which provides theoretical gist for speed limit on freeway. It is suggested that speed limit should be set according to 85th percentile speed obtained by the relationship between 85th percentile speed and Rcc, (curvature change rate of single circular curve), anddifferent speed limits should be set for cars and trucks. Through analyzing spot speed data of eight freeways in China, regression models were established between 85th percentile speed and RCCs and 15th percentile speed and RCCs. Reasonable speed limit suggestion values are put forward through these models.

  11. Improvement of severe accident analysis method for KSNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Song Won; Cho, Youn Soo [Korea Radiation Technology Institute Co., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-03-15

    The objective of this study is preparation of MELCOR 1.8.5 input deck for KSNP and simulation of some major severe accidents. The contents of this project are preparation of MELCOR 1.8.5 base input deck for KSNP to understand severe accident phenomena and to assess severe accident strategy, preparation of 20 cell containment input deck to simulate the distribution of hydrogen and fission products in containment, simulation of some major severe accident scenarios such as TLOFW, SBO, SBLOCA, MBLOCA, and LBLOCA. The method for MELCOR 1.8.5 input deck preparation can be used to prepare the input deck for domestic PWRs and to simulate severe accident experiments such as ISP-46. Information gained from analyses of severe accidents may be helpful to set up the severe accident management strategy and to develop regulatory guidance.

  12. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture.

  13. ASSESSMENT OF RUNWAY ACCIDENT HAZARDS IN NIGERIA AVIATION SECTOR

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Aviation crashes all over the world have recently been on the high rise, stemming from negligence, mechanical faults, weather, ground control errors, pilot errors, taxing and maintenance crew errors as probable reasons for such accidents. This study models the probabilistic risk assessment of runway accident hazards in Nigeria aviation sector. Six categories of runway accident hazards with their corresponding basic events were identified and modeled using fault tree analysis method of probabi...

  14. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, Mitchell T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bunt, R. [Southern Nuclear, Atlanta, GA (United States); Corradini, M. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul B. [GE Power and Water, Duluth, GA (United States); Francis, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gabor, John D. [Erin Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Gauntt, R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Linthicum, R. [Exelon Corp., Chicago, IL (United States); Luangdilok, W. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Lutz, R. [PWR Owners Group (PWROG); Paik, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Plys, M. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rempe, J. [Rempe and Associates LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Robb, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wachowiak, R. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knovville, TN (United States)

    2015-01-31

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  15. Developing a model: an illustration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havenga, Yolanda; Poggenpoel, Marie; Myburgh, Chris

    2014-04-01

    Model development may seem a daunting task for the novice. The purpose of this article is to illustrate the steps of model development applied to a real-life phenomenon using an inductive theory-generating research approach. The value of the illustration is that nurse researchers can follow the application of the process as a point of departure for their own work. A logical stepwise discussion is followed for empirical theory development. The logical thought process from identifying the phenomenon to describing the model as a visual metaphor of the phenomenon is illustrated.

  16. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  17. Accident resistant transport container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  18. Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

    2014-01-01

    The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

  19. Using the Star CCM+ software system for modeling the thermal state and natural convection in the melt metal layer during severe accidents in VVER reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochetov, N. A.; Loktionov, V. D.; Sidorov, A. S.

    2015-09-01

    The possibility of using the Star CCM+ software system for analyzing the thermal state of the melt pool metal layer generated as a result of melt stratification during a severe accident in pressure-vessel nuclear reactors is considered. In order to verify and substantiate the possibility of using this software system for modeling the natural convection processes in the melt at high values of the Rayleigh number, test problems were solved. The obtained results were found to be in good agreement with the known solutions and with the experimental data. The behavior of the melt metal layer was subjected to a parametric analysis for different melt heating conditions, the results of which showed that certain parameters have a determining influence on the so-called focusing effect and on the specific features of current in this layer.

  20. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC......); 59% above 0.08%. In all cases where a pillion passenger was killed, the operator of the motorcycle had a BAC greater than 0.08%. Of the killed counterparts 2 were non-intoxicated, 2 had a BAC greater than 0.08%, and 4 were not tested. The results advocate that the law should restrict alcohol...... consumption by pillion passengers as well as by the motorcycle operator. Suggestions made to extend the data base needed for developing appropriate alcohol countermeasures by collecting sociodemographic data on drivers killed or seriously injured should be supported....

  1. Modelling of Zry-4 cladding oxidation by air, under severe accident conditions using the MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beuzet, Emilie, E-mail: emilie.beuzet@edf.f [EDF R and D, 1 Avenue du General de Gaulle, F-92140 Clamart (France); Lamy, Jean-Sylvestre, E-mail: jean-sylvestre.lamy@edf.f [EDF R and D, 1 Avenue du General de Gaulle, F-92140 Clamart (France); Bretault, Armelle, E-mail: armelle.bretault@edf.f [EDF R and D, 1 Avenue du General de Gaulle, F-92140 Clamart (France); Simoni, Eric, E-mail: simoni@ipno.in2p3.f [Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Universite Paris Sud XI, F-91406 Orsay (France)

    2011-04-15

    In a nuclear power plant, a potential risk in some low probability situations in severe accidents is air ingress into the vessel. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced core oxidation and degradation affecting the release of Fission Products (FP), especially increasing that of ruthenium. This FP is of particular importance because of its high radio-toxicity and its ability to form highly volatile oxides. Oxygen affinity is decreasing between Zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium inclusions in the fuel. It is consequently of great need to understand the phenomena governing cladding oxidation by air as a prerequisite for the source term issues. A review of existing data in the field of Zircaloy-4 oxidation in air-containing atmosphere shows that this phenomenon is quantitatively well understood. The cladding oxidation process can be divided into two kinetic regimes separated by a breakaway transition. Before transition, a protective dense zirconia scale grows following a solid state diffusion-limited regime for which experimental data are well fitted by a parabolic time dependence. For a given thickness, which depends mainly on temperature and the extent of pre-oxidation in steam, the dense scale can potentially breakdown. In case of breakaway combined with oxygen starvation, cladding oxidation can then be much faster because of the combined action of oxygen and nitrogen through a complex self sustaining nitriding-oxidation process. A review of the pre-existing correlations used to simulate zirconia scale growth under air atmospheres shows a high degree of variation from parabolic to accelerated time dependence. Variations also exist in the choice of the breakaway parameter based on zirconia phase change or oxide thickness. Several correlations and breakaway parameters found in the literature were implemented in the MAAP4.07 Severe Accident code. They were assessed by simulation of the QUENCH-10 test, which is a semi-integral test designed

  2. Theoretical Perspectives on Learning for the Prevention of Fishing Vessel Accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boshier, Roger

    2000-01-01

    Outlines a theoretical model for accident prevention education that includes four paradigms: humanism, radical humanism, functionalism, and radical functionalism. Applies the model to fishing boat accidents and derives implications for changing the content and processes of prevention education. (SK)

  3. Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galstyan I.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

  4. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargo, G.J. [ed.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  5. Development of a new aerosol monitoring system and its application in Fukushima nuclear accident related aerosol radioactivity measurement at the CTBT radionuclide station in Sidney of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weihua; Bean, Marc; Benotto, Mike; Cheung, Jeff; Ungar, Kurt; Ahier, Brian

    2011-12-01

    A high volume aerosol sampler ("Grey Owl") has been designed and developed at the Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada. Its design guidance is based on the need for a low operational cost and reliable sampler to provide daily aerosol monitoring samples that can be used as reference samples for radiological studies. It has been developed to provide a constant air flow rate at low pressure drops (∼3 kPa for a day sampling) with variations of less than ±1% of the full scale flow rate. Its energy consumption is only about 1.5 kW for a filter sampling over 22,000 standard cubic meter of air. It has been demonstrated in this Fukushima nuclear accident related aerosol radioactivity monitoring study at Sidney station, B.C. that the sampler is robust and reliable. The results provided by the new monitoring system have been used to support decision-making in Canada during an emergency response.

  6. Reactor Core Coolability Analysis during Hypothesized Severe Accidents of OPR1000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yongjae; Seo, Seungwon; Kim, Sung Joong [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Hwan-Yeol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Assessment of the safety features over the hypothesized severe accidents may be performed experimentally or numerically. Due to the considerable time and expenditures, experimental assessment is implemented only to the limited cases. Therefore numerical assessment has played a major role in revisiting severe accident analysis of the existing or newly designed power plants. Computer codes for the numerical analysis of severe accidents are categorized as the fast running integral code and detailed code. Fast running integral codes are characterized by a well-balanced combination of detailed and simplified models for the simulation of the relevant phenomena within an NPP in the case of a severe accident. MAAP, MELCOR and ASTEC belong to the examples of fast running integral codes. Detailed code is to model as far as possible all relevant phenomena in detail by mechanistic models. The examples of detailed code is SCDAP/RELAP5. Using the MELCOR, Carbajo. investigated sensitivity studies of Station Black Out (SBO) using the MELCOR for Peach Bottom BWR. Park et al. conduct regulatory research of the PWR severe accident. Ahn et al. research sensitivity analysis of the severe accident for APR1400 with MELCOR 1.8.4. Lee et al. investigated RCS depressurization strategy and developed a core coolability map for independent scenarios of Small Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident (SBLOCA), SBO, and Total Loss of Feed Water (TLOFW). In this study, three initiating cases were selected, which are SBLOCA without SI, SBO, and TLOFW. The initiating cases exhibit the highest probability of transitioning into core damage according to PSA 1 of OPR 1000. The objective of this study is to investigate the reactor core coolability during hypothesized severe accidents of OPR1000. As a representative indicator, we have employed Jakob number and developed JaCET and JaMCT using the MELCOR simulation. Although the RCS pressures for the respective accident scenarios were different, the JaMCT and Ja

  7. Space Flight Cable Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spak, Kaitlin

    2013-01-01

    This work concentrates the modeling efforts presented in last year's VSGC conference paper, "Model Development for Cable-Harnessed Beams." The focus is narrowed to modeling of space-flight cables only, as a reliable damped cable model is not yet readily available and is necessary to continue modeling cable-harnessed space structures. New experimental data is presented, eliminating the low-frequency noise that plagued the first year's efforts. The distributed transfer function method is applied to a single section of space flight cable for Euler-Bernoulli and shear beams. The work presented here will be developed into a damped cable model that can be incorporated into an interconnected beam-cable system. The overall goal of this work is to accurately predict natural frequencies and modal damping ratios for cabled space structures.

  8. TITAN: a computer program for accident occurrence frequency analyses by component Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nomura, Yasushi [Department of Fuel Cycle Safety Research, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan); Tamaki, Hitoshi [Department of Safety Research Technical Support, Tokai Research Establishment, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan); Kanai, Shigeru [Fuji Research Institute Corporation, Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-04-01

    In a plant system consisting of complex equipments and components for a reprocessing facility, there might be grace time between an initiating event and a resultant serious accident, allowing operating personnel to take remedial actions, thus, terminating the ongoing accident sequence. A component Monte Carlo simulation computer program TITAN has been developed to analyze such a complex reliability model including the grace time without any difficulty to obtain an accident occurrence frequency. Firstly, basic methods for the component Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to obtain an accident occurrence frequency, and then, the basic performance such as precision, convergence, and parallelization of calculation, is shown through calculation of a prototype accident sequence model. As an example to illustrate applicability to a real scale plant model, a red oil explosion in a German reprocessing plant model is simulated to show that TITAN can give an accident occurrence frequency with relatively good accuracy. Moreover, results of uncertainty analyses by TITAN are rendered to show another performance, and a proposal is made for introducing of a new input-data format to adapt the component Monte Carlo simulation. The present paper describes the calculational method, performance, applicability to a real scale, and new proposal for the TITAN code. In the Appendixes, a conventional analytical method is shown to avoid complex and laborious calculation to obtain a strict solution of accident occurrence frequency, compared with Monte Carlo method. The user's manual and the list/structure of program are also contained in the Appendixes to facilitate TITAN computer program usage. (author)

  9. Numerical system utilising a Monte Carlo calculation method for accurate dose assessment in radiation accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, F; Endo, A

    2007-01-01

    A system utilising radiation transport codes has been developed to derive accurate dose distributions in a human body for radiological accidents. A suitable model is quite essential for a numerical analysis. Therefore, two tools were developed to setup a 'problem-dependent' input file, defining a radiation source and an exposed person to simulate the radiation transport in an accident with the Monte Carlo calculation codes-MCNP and MCNPX. Necessary resources are defined by a dialogue method with a generally used personal computer for both the tools. The tools prepare human body and source models described in the input file format of the employed Monte Carlo codes. The tools were validated for dose assessment in comparison with a past criticality accident and a hypothesized exposure.

  10. The effect of roundabout design features on cyclist accident rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hels, Tove; Orozova-Bekkevold, Ivanka

    2007-03-01

    Roundabouts are known to result in fewer traffic accidents than traditional intersections. However, this is to a lesser degree true for bicycles than for vehicles. In this paper, we aimed at establishing statistical relationships through Poisson regression and logistic regression analyses between yearly rate of cyclist accidents on one hand and roundabout geometry, age and traffic volume (vehicles and cyclists) on the other. We related all roundabout cyclist accidents recorded by the hospital emergency department of the town of Odense, Denmark, through the years 1999-2003 (N=171) to various geometric features, age and traffic volume of all roundabouts on the Danish island of Funen (N=88). Cyclist and vehicle volumes turned out to be significant predictors in most of our models-the higher the volumes, the more accidents. Moreover, potential vehicle speed was a significant predictor, and so was age of the roundabout-older roundabouts related to more accidents and higher accident probability. Excluding 48 single cyclist accidents strengthened the relationship between accidents on one hand and vehicle and cyclist volume and potential vehicle speed on the other. This stresses the significance of speed and traffic volume for traffic accidents with more than one partner involved. The 48 single cyclist accidents were significantly related to the traffic volume of cyclists only. Due to our limited number of observations, the models should be regarded as indicative.

  11. Numerical simulation of a Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident in a small-scale model of a nuclear reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robbe, M.F. E-mail: robbe@aquilon.cea.frmfrobbe@cea.fr; Lepareux, M.; Treille, E.; Cariou, Y

    2003-08-01

    In the case of a Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident (HCDA) in a Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor, it is assumed that the core of the nuclear reactor has melted partially and that the chemical interaction between molten fuel and liquid sodium has created a high-pressure gas bubble in the core. The violent expansion of this bubble loads and deforms the reactor vessel and the internal structures, thus endangering the safety of the nuclear plant. The MARA 10 experimental test simulates a HCDA in a 1/30-scale mock-up schematising a reactor block. In the mock-up, the liquid sodium cooling the reactor core is replaced by water and the argon blanket laying below the reactor roof is simulated by an air blanket. The explosion is triggered by an explosive charge. This paper presents a numerical simulation of the test with the EUROPLEXUS code and an analysis of the computed results. In particular, the evolution of the fluid flows and the deformations of the internal and external structures are analysed in detail. Finally, the current computed results are compared with the experimental ones and with previous numerical results computed with the SIRIUS and CASTEM-PLEXUS codes.

  12. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  13. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Laboratory; Chichester, Heather [Idaho National Laboratory; Johns, Jesse [Texas A& M University; Teague, Melissa [Idaho National Laboratory; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant

  14. Severe accident risks from external events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet.Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators.Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents.It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.

  15. Heat up and potential failure of BWR upper internals during a severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robb, Kevin R [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    In boiling water reactors, the steam dome, steam separators, and dryers above the core are comprised of approximately 100 tons of stainless steel. During a severe accident in which the coolant boils away and exothermic oxidation of zirconium occurs, gases (steam and hydrogen) are superheated in the core region and pass through the upper internals. Historically, the upper internals have been modeled using severe accident codes with relatively simple approximations. The upper internals are typically modeled in MELCOR as two lumped volumes with simplified heat transfer characteristics, with no structural integrity considerations, and with limited ability to oxidize, melt, and relocate. The potential for and the subsequent impact of the upper internals to heat up, oxidize, fail, and relocate during a severe accident was investigated. A higher fidelity representation of the shroud dome, steam separators, and steam driers was developed in MELCOR v1.8.6 by extending the core region upwards. This modeling effort entailed adding 45 additional core cells and control volumes, 98 flow paths, and numerous control functions. The model accounts for the mechanical loading and structural integrity, oxidation, melting, flow area blockage, and relocation of the various components. The results indicate that the upper internals can reach high temperatures during a severe accident; they are predicted to reach a high enough temperature such that they lose their structural integrity and relocate. The additional 100 tons of stainless steel debris influences the subsequent in-vessel and ex-vessel accident progression.

  16. Evaluation of the long-rang dispersion of radionuclides from the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, K.S.; Jeong, H.J.; Kim, E.H.; Hwang, W.T.; Han, M.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Nuclear Environmental Research Div., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    The atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to predict and minimize the radiological damage for the surrounding environment since the Chernobyl accident. There are many nuclear power plants in the region of Northeast Asia. It is necessary to develop a long-range atmospheric dispersion model for the radiological emergency preparedness against a nuclear accident. From this viewpoint, a Lagrangian particle model named L.A.D.A.S.(Long-range Accident Dose Assessment System) was initially developed for the evaluation the long-range dispersion in Korea since 2001. The model designed to estimate air concentrations and dry deposition as well as wet deposition at distances up to some thousands of kilometers from the source point in a horizontal direction. The validation study of the model was firstly performed by comparing the measured values of E.T.E.X. exercise. The developed model was also applied to simulate the movements of the radioactive materials at the Chernobyl accident. An intercomparison and validation study among the long-range models was performed through the A.T.M.E.S.(Atmospheric Transport Model Evaluation Study) project under auspices of the IAEA/W.M.O. (world meteorological organization) in 1992. As a consequence of A.T.M.E.S., it was observed that in a real emergency case, under conditions of urgency and stress, many of the models would have had different results. So, one of the main recommendations was the launch of a long-range atmospheric tracer experiment in conditions as close as possible to those which could be found in a real emergency case, with the advantage of a complete knowledge of the source term. In this study, numerical simulations were carried out to estimate the concentration distributions of {sup 137}Cs. The calculated results agreed well with them by Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, a three dimensional Lagrangian particle model named L.A.D.A.S. was developed to evaluate the characteristics of a long-range atmospheric

  17. On the validation of an Eulerian model with the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident. Global and local results for Europe and Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne [CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR 8212, IPSL/LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, L' Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Florou, Heleni; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Kritidis, Panayotis [NCSR ' Demokritos' , Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), Environmental Radioactivity Laboratory, 15310 Athens (Greece)

    2014-07-01

    A large debate about the exact emissions after the Fukushima NPP accident is still ongoing more than 3 years after the original disaster. Terada et al. (2012) reported the total release of {sup 137}Cs to be 13 PBq (x10{sup 15} Bq), based on an inverse modelling using Japanese data only, whereas the IRSN reported releases of {sup 137}Cs to be 20.6 PBq (IRSN, 2011). In the present study, we used the emission inventories for {sup 137}Cs and {sup 133}Xe reported by Stohl et al. (2012) estimated by inverse modelling using the CTBTO (Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation) and Japanese networks (36.7 PBq of {sup 137}Cs and 15.3 EBq of {sup 133}Xe). For the simulations of the accident, three different versions of the LMDZORINCA model were used; A regular one with a grid resolution of 2.50 deg. x 1.27 deg. for the global comparison with the CTBTO network (19 and 39 vertical layers), and a zoom version over Europe and Asia (0.45 deg. x 0.51 deg. for 19 levels) resulting after 'stretching' the grid using the same number of grid points to assess what happened in Greece, and Japan. Cesium isotopes were treated as sub-micronic aerosols, whereas {sup 133}Xe as a passive tracer within the model, whereas several other radionuclides were estimated from reported isotopic ratios. Our results for the global assessment fit well to the observations. They differ about 0.04% from the measurements for {sup 137}Cs, and around 40% for xenon. The most significant deviations were observed for the northernmost stations due to both scavenging processes and transport over the Arctic. Scattered measurements of several radionuclides from Japan were adopted from literature (Shininaga et al., 2014). The comparison showed a significant quality of our model, although some isotopes are miscalculated. This shows that the reported isotopic ratios might be biased somehow. Finally, in Greece, few measurements of {sup 131}I, {sup 134}Cs and {sup 137}Cs were adopted from Potiriadis et al

  18. Analysis on relation between safety input and accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAO Qing-guo; ZHANG Xue-mu; LI Chun-hui

    2007-01-01

    The number of safety input directly determines the level of safety, and there exists dialectical and unified relations between safety input and accidents. Based on the field investigation and reliable data, this paper deeply studied the dialectical relationship between safety input and accidents, and acquired the conclusions. The security situation of the coal enterprises was related to the security input rate, being effected little by the security input scale, and build the relationship model between safety input and accidents on this basis, that is the accident model.

  19. Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression after Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

    2008-01-01

    The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months…

  20. Accidents in nuclear ships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oelgaard, P.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10{sup -3} per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au).

  1. Development of analytical code for core disruptive accident of metallic fuel core and evaluation of upper limitation of coolant void reactivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ueda, Nobuyuki [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Komae, Tokyo (Japan). Komae Research Lab

    2001-06-01

    In the event of HCDA (Hypothetical Core Damage Accident) the safety of the metallic core must be ensured. Coolant void reactivity, which produces a positive reactivity effect, must be restrained to exclude 'energetic sequence' (uncontrollable power generation). As this reactivity and the core performance are in a state of confrontation, an upper limit must be determined through safety analyses. The larger the coolant void reactivity becomes, the more the core performance improves. A core dynamics analysis code named CANIS has been developed to analysis metallic fuel properties, irradiation behavior, and transient behavior in the initiating phase of HCDA. ULOF (Unprotected Loss Of Flow) events, which are considered major HCDA initiators, are analyzed with various parameters of cladding failure conditions and molten fuel dispersion velocities. The results indicate, the cladding failure condition is the most sensitive safety parameter. The coolant void reactivity of 12$ is acceptable in the condition that cladding fails at 1,000 degC. And the upper value is limited to 8$ for the conservative condition of a 1,200 degC failure criteria. (author)

  2. APRI-6. Accident Phenomena of Risk Importance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garis, Ninos; Ljung, J (eds.) (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)); Agrenius, Lennart (ed.) (Agrenius Ingenjoersbyraa AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Since the early 1980s, nuclear power utilities in Sweden and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) collaborate on the research in severe reactor accidents. In the beginning focus was mostly on strengthening protection against environmental impacts after a severe reactor accident, for example by develop systems for the filtered relief of the reactor containment. Since the early 90s, this focus has shifted to the phenomenological issues of risk-dominant significance. During the years 2006-2008, the partnership continued in the research project APRI-6. The aim was to show whether the solutions adopted in the Swedish strategy for incident management provides adequate protection for the environment. This is done by studying important phenomena in the core melt estimating the amount of radioactivity that can be released to the atmosphere in a severe accident. To achieve these objectives the research has included monitoring of international research on severe accidents and evaluation of results and continued support for research of severe accidents at the Royal Inst. of Technology (KTH) and Chalmers University. The follow-up of international research has promoted the exchange of knowledge and experience and has given access to a wealth of information on various phenomena relevant to events in severe accidents. The continued support to KTH has provided increased knowledge about the possibility of cooling the molten core in the reactor tank and the processes associated with coolability in the confinement and about steam explosions. Support for Chalmers has increased knowledge of the accident chemistry, mainly the behavior of iodine and ruthenium in the containment after an accident.

  3. DEVELOPMENT OF A CRASH RISK PROBABILITY MODEL FOR FREEWAYS BASED ON HAZARD PREDICTION INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Mahmud Hasan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a method for the identification of hazardous situations on the freeways. The hazard identification is done using a crash risk probability model. For this study, about 18 km long section of Eastern Freeway in Melbourne (Australia is selected as a test bed. Two categories of data i.e. traffic and accident record data are used for the analysis and modelling. In developing the crash risk probability model, Hazard Prediction Index is formulated in this study by the differences of traffic parameters with threshold values. Seven different prediction indices are examined and the best one is selected as crash risk probability model based on prediction error minimisation.

  4. [Development and validation of a finite element model of human knee joint for dynamic analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haiyan; Gu, Yulong; Ruan, Shijie; Cui, Shihai

    2012-02-01

    Based on the biomechanical response of human knee joint to a front impact in occupants accidents, a finite element (FE) model of human knee joint was developed by using computer simulation technique for impacting. The model consists of human anatomical structure, including femoral condyle, tibia condyle, fibular small head, patellar, cartilage, meniscus and primary ligament. By comparing the results of the FE model with experiments of the knee joint in axial load conditions, the validation of the model was verified. Furthermore, this study provides data for the mechanical of human knee joint injury, and is helpful for the design and optimization of the vehicle protective devices.

  5. Quench front progression in a superheated porous medium: experimental analysis and model development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachrata, A.; Fichot, F.; Repetto, G., E-mail: andrea.bachrata@irsn.fr, E-mail: florian.fichot@irsn.fr, E-mail: georges.repetto@irsn.fr [Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Cadarache (France); Quintard, M., E-mail: michel.quintard@imft.fr [Univ. de Toulouse, Toulouse (France); CNRS, IMFT, Toulouse (France); Fleurot, J. [Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Cadarache (France)

    2011-07-01

    In case of severe accident in a nuclear reactor, the fuel rods may be highly damaged and oxidized and finally collapse to form a debris bed. Removal of decay heat from a debris bed is a challenging issue because of the difficulty for water to flow inside. Currently, IRSN has started experimental program PEARL with two experimental facilities PRELUDE and PEARL, to investigate the reflood process at high temperature, for various particle sizes. On the basis of PRELUDE experimental results, the thermal hydraulic features of the quench front have been analysed and the intensity of heat transfers was estimated. From a selection of experimental results, a reflooding model was improved and validated. The model is implemented in the code ICARE-CATHARE developed by IRSN which is used for severe accident reactor analysis. (author)

  6. LPG储罐事故危险特性动态模拟评价方法及软件开发%Development on method and software of dynamic simulation evaluation of LPG tank accidents hazardous characteristic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈国华; 张瑞华; 张晖; 陈清光; 颜伟文

    2006-01-01

    对LPG危险特性、易发事故及其发生机理进行全面系统地分析、归纳和分类,按LPG储罐事故可能发生的先后顺序,将其事故类型分为六类,建立了一套可描述事故特征参数随时间和距离的变化过程的LPG储罐事故危险特性动态模拟评价系统方法.为便于推广和实际应用,根据水平喷射火的特殊形状,提出了其人员伤亡人数和直接财产损失计算方法;将改进的喷射流扩展半径表达式用于喷射火模拟评价,将修正的TNO爆炸特征曲线拟和关系式和蒸气云爆炸人员伤亡距离关系式等改进方法应用于蒸气云爆炸模拟评价.结合Visual C++编程语言与MATLAB仿真技术,实现了事故后果动态模拟的软件化、可视化.本方法对有效预测、预防、控制LPG危险源事故具有重要工程应用价值和指导意义.%The hazardous properties, easy occurrence accidents and accidents mechanics of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) are analyzed and classified. According to occurrence precedence relation of LPG tank accidents, six accident types are classified. A method of dynamic simulation evaluation of LPG tank accidents hazardous characteristic is founded. A scientific practicable method of calculating casualties and property loss of horizontal jet fire is proposed; an improved expression of expand radius of jet is applied to simulate jet fire; some development methods of TNO Multi-Energy method in the engineering applications are also applied to evaluate VCE. Software of the evaluation method including dynamic visualization of accidents severity has been achieved combining program language Visual C++ and MATLAB emulation technique. The method has significant engineering application value and guidance function to take effective measures for forecasting and preventing accidents.

  7. SARNET: Severe accident research network of excellence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albiol, T.; Van Dorsselaere, J. P. [IRSN, DPAM, F-13115 St Paul Les Durance (France); Chaumont, B. [IRSN, DSR, SAGR, F-92262 Fontenay Aux Roses (France); Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Inst, NES, LTH, OVGA 312, CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Journeau, Ch. [CEA Cadarache, DEN, STRI, LMA, F-13115 St Paul Les Durance (France); Meyer, L. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Sehgal, Bal Raj [KTH, AlbaNova Univ Ctr, S-10691 Stockholm (Sweden); Schwinges, Bernd [Gesell Anlagen and Reaktorsicherheit GRS mbH, D-50667 Cologne (Germany); Beraha, D. [GRS mbH, Forschungsgelande, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Annunziato, A. [Commiss European Communities, JRC, IPSC, I-21020 Ispra, VA (Italy); Zeyen, R. [Commiss European Communities, JRC IE, IRSN DPAM DIR, F-13115 St Paul Les Durance (France)

    2010-07-01

    Fifty-one organisations network in SARNET (Severe Accident Research Network of Excellence) their research capacities in order to resolve the most important pending issues for enhancing, with regard to Severe Accidents (SA), the safety of existing and future Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). This project. co-funded by the European Commission (EC) under the 6. Framework Programme, has been defined in order to optimise the use of the available means and to constitute sustainable research groups in the European Union. SARNET tackles the fragmentation that may exist between the different national R and D programmes, in defining common research programmes and developing common computer tools and methodologies for safety assessment. SARNET comprises most of the organisations involved in SA research in Europe, plus Canada. To reach these objectives, all the organisations networked in SARNET contributed to a joint Programme of Activities, which consisted of: Implementation of an advanced communication tool for accessing all project information, fostering exchange of information, and managing documents; Harmonization and re-orientation of the research programmes, and definition of new ones; Analysis of the experimental results provided by research programmes in order to elaborate a common understanding of relevant phenomena; Development of the ASTEC code (integral computer code used to predict the NPP behaviour during a postulated SA), which capitalizes in terms of physical models the knowledge produced within SARNET; Development of Scientific Databases in which all the results of research programmes are stored in a common format (DATANET); Development of a common methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment of NPPs; Development of short courses and writing a textbook on Severe Accidents for students and researchers; Promotion of personnel mobility amongst various European organisations. This paper presents the major achievements after four and a half years of operation of the

  8. OSPREY Model Development Status Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veronica J Rutledge

    2014-04-01

    During the processing of used nuclear fuel, volatile radionuclides will be discharged to the atmosphere if no recovery processes are in place to limit their release. The volatile radionuclides of concern are 3H, 14C, 85Kr, and 129I. Methods are being developed, via adsorption and absorption unit operations, to capture these radionuclides. It is necessary to model these unit operations to aid in the evaluation of technologies and in the future development of an advanced used nuclear fuel processing plant. A collaboration between Fuel Cycle Research and Development Offgas Sigma Team member INL and a NEUP grant including ORNL, Syracuse University, and Georgia Institute of Technology has been formed to develop off gas models and support off gas research. Georgia Institute of Technology is developing fundamental level model to describe the equilibrium and kinetics of the adsorption process, which are to be integrated with OSPREY. This report discusses the progress made on expanding OSPREY to be multiple component and the integration of macroscale and microscale level models. Also included in this report is a brief OSPREY user guide.

  9. VARTM Model Development and Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cano, Roberto J. (Technical Monitor); Dowling, Norman E.

    2004-01-01

    In this investigation, a comprehensive Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) process simulation model was developed and verified. The model incorporates resin flow through the preform, compaction and relaxation of the preform, and viscosity and cure kinetics of the resin. The computer model can be used to analyze the resin flow details, track the thickness change of the preform, predict the total infiltration time and final fiber volume fraction of the parts, and determine whether the resin could completely infiltrate and uniformly wet out the preform.

  10. The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

  11. Motorola Secure Software Development Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Mahendran

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In today's world, the key to meeting the demand for improved security is to implement repeatable processes that reliably deliver measurably improved security. While many organizations have announced efforts to institutionalize a secure software development process, there is little or no industry acceptance for a common process improvement framework for secure software development. Motorola has taken the initiative to develop such a framework, and plans to share this with the Software Engineering Institute for possible inclusion into its Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI®. This paper will go into the details of how Motorola is addressing this issue. The model that is being developed is designed as an extension of the existing CMMI structure. The assumption is that the audience will have a basic understanding of the SEI CMM® / CMMI® process framework. The paper will not describe implementation details of a security process model or improvement framework, but will address WHAT security practices are required for a company with many organizations operating at different maturity levels. It is left to the implementing organization to answer the HOW, WHEN, WHO and WHERE aspects. The paper will discuss how the model is being implemented in the Motorola Software Group.

  12. Dose estimates from the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, R.; Dickerson, M.H.; Gudiksen, P.H.

    1987-11-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) responded to the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in the Soviet Union by utilizing long-range atmospheric dispersion modeling to estimate the amount of radioactivity released (source term) and the radiation dose distribution due to exposure to the radioactive cloud over Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. In later assessments, after the release of data on the accident by the Soviet Union, the ARAC team used their mesoscale to regional scale model to focus in on the radiation dose distribution within the Soviet Union and the vicinity of the Chernobyl plant. 22 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  13. Pressure Load Analysis during Severe Accidents for the Evaluation of Late Containment Failure in OPR-1000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The MAAP code is a system level computer code capable of performing integral analyses of potential severe accident progressions in nuclear power plants, whose main purpose is to support a level 2 probabilistic safety assessment or severe accident management strategy developments. The code employs lots of user-options for supporting a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The present application is mainly focused on determining an estimate of the containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences. Key modeling parameters and phenomenological models employed for the present uncertainty analysis are closely related to in-vessel hydrogen generation, gas combustion in the containment, corium distribution in the containment after a reactor vessel failure, corium coolability in the reactor cavity, and molten-corium interaction with concrete. The phenomenology of severe accidents is extremely complex. In this paper, a sampling-based phenomenological uncertainty analysis was performed to statistically quantify uncertainties associated with the pressure load of a containment building for a late containment failure evaluation, based on the key modeling parameters employed in the MAAP code and random samples for those parameters. Phenomenological issues surrounding the late containment failure mode are highly complex. Included are the pressurization owing to steam generation in the cavity, molten corium-concrete interaction, late hydrogen burn in the containment, and the secondary heat removal availability. The methodology and calculation results can be applied for the optimum assessment of a late containment failure model. The accident sequences considered were a loss of coolant accidents and loss of offsite accidents expected in the OPR-1000 plant. As a result, uncertainties addressed in the pressure load of the containment building were quantified as a function of time. A realistic evaluation of the mean and variance estimates provides a more complete

  14. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph. [Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, CEA Centre d' Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France)

    1997-11-01

    This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m{sup -2}), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at presentthe dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 {mu}Sv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded

  15. Monetary valorization of the sanitary and environmental impacts of a nuclear accident: synthesis of ''ExternE'' studies, interests and limits of complementary developments; Valorisation monetaire des impacts sanitaires et environnementaux d'un accident nucleaire: synthese des etudes externe, interets et limites de developpements complementaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th

    2002-09-01

    This document constitutes a synthesis of the various available methods for the monetary evaluation of the nuclear accidents impacts in order to reveal the already evaluated impacts, those which need complementary developments and those for which the monetary approach currently seems to come up against limits. It is based primarily on the approach realized by the ''ExternE'' project of the European Commission, consisting in the evaluation of the external costs of the nuclear energy industry. (A.L.B.)

  16. Canister storage building design basis accident analysis documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    KOPELIC, S.D.

    1999-02-25

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  17. Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) Facility Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    1999-10-20

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR).'' All assumptions, parameters and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR.

  18. Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-03-23

    This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  19. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  20. Reconfigurable mobile manipulation for accident response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ANDERSON,ROBERT J.; MORSE,WILLIAM D.; SHIREY,DAVID L.; CDEBACA,DANIEL M.; HOFFMAN JR.,JOHN P.; LUCY,WILLIAM E.

    2000-06-06

    The need for a telerobotic vehicle with hazard sensing and integral manipulation capabilities has been identified for use in transportation accidents where nuclear weapons are involved. The Accident Response Mobile Manipulation System (ARMMS) platform has been developed to provide remote dexterous manipulation and hazard sensing for the Accident Response Group (ARG) at Sandia National Laboratories. The ARMMS' mobility platform is a military HMMWV [High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle] that is teleoperated over RF or Fiber Optic communication channels. ARMMS is equipped with two high strength Schilling Titan II manipulators and a suite of hazardous gas and radiation sensors. Recently, a modular telerobotic control architecture call SMART (Sandia Modular Architecture for Robotic and Teleoperation) has been applied to ARMMS. SMART enables input devices and many system behaviors to be rapidly configured in the field for specific mission needs. This paper summarizes current SMART developments applied to ARMMS.

  1. The I.R.S.N.-2003 model of Chernobylsk accident fallout in France; Le modele IRSN 2003 des retombees de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aurengo, A

    2005-12-15

    In conclusion, the whole of the method impreciseness, the sometime important variation between the very simplifying hypothesis used and the available data ( especially for the air contamination and the fallout of nuclear tests), the variations between the results of the model and the measurements, its incompatible results with these ones exposed and validated in the report I.P.S.N.-1997, lead to consider that the I.R.S.N.-2003 model does not allow a reliable quantitative estimation of Chernobylsk fallout and let alone the dosimetry estimations for which it has been used. (N.C.)

  2. Steam Oxidation Testing in the Severe Accident Test Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pint, Bruce A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); McMurray, Jake W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Since 2011, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been conducting high temperature steam oxidation testing of candidate alloys for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding. These concepts are designed to enhance safety margins in light water reactors (LWR) during severe accident scenarios. In the US ATF community, the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) has been evaluating candidate materials (including coatings) since 2012. Compared to the current UO2/Zr-based alloy fuel system, alternative cladding materials need to offer slower oxidation kinetics and a smaller enthalpy of oxidation in order to significantly reduce the rate of heat and hydrogen generation in the core during a coolant-limited severe accident. The steam oxidation behavior of candidate materials is a key metric in the evaluation of ATF concepts and also an important input into models. However, prior modeling work of FeCrAl cladding has used incomplete information on the physical properties of FeCrAl. Also, the steam oxidation data being collected at 1200°-1700°C is unique as no prior work has considered steam oxidation of alloys at such high temperatures. In some cases, the results have been difficult to interpret and more fundamental information is needed such as the stability of alumina in flowing steam at 1400°-1500°C. This report summarizes recent work to measure the steam oxidation kinetics of candidate alloys, the evaporation rate of alumina in steam and the development of integral data on FeCrAl compared to conventional Zr-based cladding.

  3. 日本福岛核电事故对我国核电发展影响的思考%The Analysis on the Impact of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident to Nuclear Power Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林洁琴

    2012-01-01

    Based on the previous research achievements of Japanese nuclear power accident, this article analyses the reviews and reasons of the accident, emphasises the diversities of nuclear power plants between China and japan as well as the lessons that China should learn from the Fukushima nuclear power accident, finally puts forward the proplsals and measures about the safety of nuclear power development ,for the reference of nuclear power development in China.%依据对前人日本核电事故研究成果的梳理,文章从该事故的回顾及原因进行简要分析,重点对我国核电站与日本福岛核电站差异性以及从福岛核电事故中我国应该吸取怎样的教训进行分析,最后提出安全发展核电的建议与措施,为我国发展核电提供参考与借鉴。

  4. Developing a Malaysia flood model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

    2014-05-01

    Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

  5. Chernobyl accident and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1987-06-01

    The paper concerns the Chernobyl reactor accident, with emphasis on the design of the RBMK reactor and nuclear safety. A description is given of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, including details of the RMBK reactor and safety systems. Comments on the design of the RBMK by UK experts prior to the accident are summarized, along with post-accident design changes to improve RBMK safety. Events of the Chernobyl accident are described, as well as design deficiencies highlighted by the accident. Differences between the USSR and UK approaches to nuclear safety are commented on. Finally source terms, release periods and environmental consequences are briefly discussed.

  6. 50 CFR 401.17 - Safety and accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Safety and accident prevention. 401.17 Section 401.17 Wildlife and Fisheries JOINT REGULATIONS (UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE... FISHERIES CONSERVATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT § 401.17 Safety and accident prevention. In...

  7. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  8. Interdisciplinary safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems based on the functional resonance accident model: An application to railway trafficsupervision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belmonte, Fabien, E-mail: fabien.belmonte@transport.alstom.co [Alstom Transport, 48 rue Albert Dhalenne, 93482 Saint-Ouen cedex (France); Schoen, Walter [Universite de Technologie de Compiegne, Laboratoire Heudiasyc, Centre de Recherches de Royallieu, BP20529, 60205 Compiegne cedex (France); Heurley, Laurent [Universite de Picardie Jules Verne, Equipe Cognition, Langage, Emotion et Acquisition (CLEA), EA 4296, UFR de Philosophie, Sciences Humaines et Sociales, Chemin du Thil, 80025 Amiens, Cedex 1 (France); Capel, Robert [Alstom Transport, 48 rue Albert Dhalenne, 93482 Saint-Ouen cedex (France)

    2011-02-15

    This paper presents an application of functional resonance accident models (FRAM) for the safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems, i.e. systems which include not only technological, but also human and organizational components. The supervision of certain industrial domains provides a good example of such systems, because although more and more actions for piloting installations are now automatized, there always remains a decision level (at least in the management of degraded modes) involving human behavior and organizations. The field of application of the study presented here is railway traffic supervision, using modern automatic train supervision (ATS) systems. Examples taken from railway traffic supervision illustrate the principal advantage of FRAM in comparison to classical safety analysis models, i.e. their ability to take into account technical as well as human and organizational aspects within a single model, thus allowing a true multidisciplinary cooperation between specialists from the different domains involved. A FRAM analysis is used to interpret experimental results obtained from a real ATS system linked to a railway simulator that places operators (experimental subjects) in simulated situations involving incidents. The first results show a significant dispersion in performances among different operators when detecting incidents. Some subsequent work in progress aims to make these 'performance conditions' more homogeneous, mainly by ergonomic modifications. It is clear that the current human-machine interface (HMI) in ATS systems (a legacy of past technologies that used LED displays) has reached its limits and needs to be improved, for example, by highlighting the most pertinent information for a given situation (and, conversely, by removing irrelevant information likely to distract operators).

  9. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles.

  10. Severe accident analysis in a two-loop PWR nuclear power plant with the ASTEC code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadek, Sinisa; Amizic, Milan; Grgic, Davor [Zagreb Univ. (Croatia). Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

    2013-12-15

    The ASTEC/V2.0 computer code was used to simulate a hypothetical severe accident sequence in the nuclear power plant Krsko, a 2-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. ASTEC is an integral code jointly developed by Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN, France) and Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS, Germany) to assess nuclear power plant behaviour during a severe accident. The analysis was conducted in 2 steps. First, the steady state calculation was performed in order to confirm the applicability of the plant model and to obtain correct initial conditions for the accident analysis. The second step was the calculation of the station blackout accident with a leakage of the primary coolant through degraded reactor coolant pump seals, which was a small LOCA without makeup capability. Two scenarios were analyzed: one with and one without the auxiliary feedwater (AFW). The latter scenario, without the AFW, resulted in earlier core damage. In both cases, the accident ended with a core melt and a reactor pressure vessel failure with significant release of hydrogen. In addition, results of the ASTEC calculation were compared with results of the RELAP5/SCDAPSIM calculation for the same transient scenario. The results comparison showed a good agreement between predictions of those 2 codes. (orig.)

  11. Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-12-01

    Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

  12. Simulation of reactivity accidents utilizing the IGR reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asmolov, V.G.; Tukhvatulin, Sh.T.; Cherepnin, Yu.S.

    1994-12-31

    The Impulse Graphite Reactor (IGR) is located on the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site - 50 km southwest of the town of Kurchatov (Semipalatinsk-21), Republic of Kazakhstan. The reactor has been in operation since January 8, 1961. One of the principal objectives of the IGR program has been to obtain direct experimental data on the behavior of fuel elements and reactor components under accident conditions. Measurements include determination of threshold destructive characteristics. These data are then used to develop and verify the computational models used to analyze accident consequences. The IGR has a cubical core assembled from uranium-loaded graphite blocks. The core is reflected with the same graphite blocks but without the uranium loading. The reactor has a negative temperature coefficient and is operated by a system of vertical control and safety rods. Two vertical chambers, one within the reactor core and one at the core-reflector interface, provide two channels to carry out experimental studies of materials and systems under accident conditions. The central channel can accommodate hardened capsules that allow melting and destruction of fuel assemblies. The IGR parameters are provided.

  13. Severe Accident Simulation of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Espinosa-Paredes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA simulation in the boiling water reactor (BWR of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant (LVNPP at 105% of rated power is analyzed in this work. The LVNPP model was developed using RELAP/SCDAPSIM code. The lack of cooling water after the LOCA gets to the LVNPP to melting of the core that exceeds the design basis of the nuclear power plant (NPP sufficiently to cause failure of structures, materials, and systems that are needed to ensure proper cooling of the reactor core by normal means. Faced with a severe accident, the first response is to maintain the reactor core cooling by any means available, but in order to carry out such an attempt is necessary to understand fully the progression of core damage, since such action has effects that may be decisive in accident progression. The simulation considers a LOCA in the recirculation loop of the reactor with and without cooling water injection. During the progression of core damage, we analyze the cooling water injection at different times and the results show that there are significant differences in the level of core damage and hydrogen production, among other variables analyzed such as maximum surface temperature, fission products released, and debris bed height.

  14. [Drowning accidents in childhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krandick, G; Mantel, K

    1990-09-30

    This is a report on five boys aged between 1 and 5 years who, after prolonged submersion in cold water, were treated at our department. On being taken out of the water, all the patients were clinically dead. After 1- to 3-hour successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, with a rectal temperature of about 27 degrees C, they were rewarmed at a rate of 1 degree/hour. Two patients died within a few hours after the accident. One patient survived with an apallic syndrome, 2 children survived with no sequelae. In the event of a water-related accident associated with hypothermia, we consider suitable resuscitation to have preference over rewarming measures. The most important treatment guidelines and prognostic factors are discussed.

  15. Dementia and Traffic Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Siersma, Volkert; Nielsen, Connie Thurøe;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As a consequence of a rapid growth of an ageing population, more people with dementia are expected on the roads. Little is known about whether these people are at increased risk of road traffic-related accidents. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to investigate the risk of road traffic......-related accidents for people aged 65 years or older with a diagnosis of dementia in Denmark. METHODS: We will conduct a nationwide population-based cohort study consisting of Danish people aged 65 or older living in Denmark as of January 1, 2008. The cohort is followed for 7 years (2008-2014). Individual's personal...... data are available in Danish registers and can be linked using a unique personal identification number. A person is identified with dementia if the person meets at least one of the following criteria: (1) a diagnosis of the disease in the Danish National Patient Register or in the Danish Psychiatric...

  16. Development of sodium boiling model, 'SOBOIL'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Won Pyo; Hahn, Do Hee

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research is to develop an algorithm for the sodium boiling modeling, essential to the KALIMER HCDA Analysis. The basic theory is based on the 'Muti-slug Ejection Model' in SAS2A. It allows a finite number of bubbles in a channel at any time, and a formed bubble fills the whole cross section of the coolant channel except for liquid film left on the cladding surface. The essence of the model is to estimate the bubble pressure and temperature by balancing the bubble state change with the energy transfer into the bubble at both the wall and interfaces. It assumes that the bubble is saturated with a uniform pressure and temperature, and a bubble is generated when the coolant temperature exceeds a specified superheat. The period of the algorithm development has been divided into two phases. The algorithm development and application during the first phase is limited to the active fuel region where relatively simple physical phenomena are anticipated under ULOHS accident conditions in KALIMER, because it is favorable to the verification of the basic algorithm. The main revision is made during the 2nd phase to take into account mass transfer between the liquid film and bubble, bubble collapse, and coalescence as a liquid slug diminishes. In conclusion, the model represents the anticipated physical phenomena reasonably. The bubble has grown rapidly in consistence with the previous model predictions. Instability, however, is found in the wall heat transfer because the bubble size exceeds a certain value, over which the homogeneous model is no longer valid. Therefore, the model is expected to be improved by taking account of the pressure drop due to vapor flow inside such a large bubble to extend its applicability.

  17. RENEB accident simulation exercise

    OpenAIRE

    Brzozowska, Beata; Ainsbury, Elizabeth; Baert, Annelot; Beaton-Green, Lindsay; Barrios, Leonardo; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Bassinet, Celine; Beinke, Christina; Benedek, Anett; Beukes, Philip; Bortolin, Emanuela; Buraczewska, Iwona; Burbidge, Christopher; De Amicis, Andrea; De Angelis, Cinzia

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The RENEB accident exercise was carried out in order to train the RENEB participants in coordinating and managing potentially large data sets that would be generated in case of a major radiological event. Materials and methods: Each participant was offered the possibility to activate the network by sending an alerting email about a simulated radiation emergency. The same participant had to collect, compile and report capacity, triage categorization and exposure scenario results ob...

  18. Development Model for Research Infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin; Kerschke, Dorit; Lauterjung, Jörn

    2015-04-01

    . The maturity of individual scientific domains differs considerably. • Technologically and organisationally many different RI components have to be integrated. Individual systems are often complex and have a long-term history. Existing approaches are on different maturity levels, e.g. in relation to the standardisation of interfaces. • The concrete implementation process consists of independent and often parallel development activities. In many cases no detailed architectural blue-print for the envisioned system exists. • Most of the funding currently available for RI implementation is provided on a project basis. To increase the synergies in infrastructure development the authors propose a specific RI Maturity Model (RIMM) that is specifically qualified for open system-of-system environments. RIMM is based on the concepts of Capability Maturity Models for organisational development, concretely the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model (LCIM) specifying the technical, syntactical, semantic, pragmatic, dynamic, and conceptual layers of interoperation [1]. The model is complemented by the identification and integration of growth factors (according to the Nolan Stages Theory [2]). These factors include supply and demand factors. Supply factors comprise available resources, e.g., data, services and IT-management capabilities including organisations and IT-personal. Demand factors are the overall application portfolio for RIs but also the skills and requirements of scientists and communities using the infrastructure. RIMM thus enables a balanced development process of RI and RI components by evaluating the status of the supply and demand factors in relation to specific levels of interoperability. [1] Tolk, A., Diallo, A., Turnitsa, C. (2007): Applying the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model in Support of Integratability, Interoperability, and Composability for System-of-Systems Engineering. Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, Volume 5 - Number 5. [2

  19. Accidents Preventive Practice for High-Rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goh Kai Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The demand of high-rise projects continues to grow due to the reducing of usable land area in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The rapidly development of high-rise projects has leaded to the rise of fatalities and accidents. An accident that happened in a construction site can cause serious physical injury. The accidents such as people falling from height and struck by falling object were the most frequent accidents happened in Malaysian construction industry. The continuous growth of high-rise buildings indicates that there is a need of an effective safety and health management. Hence, this research aims to identify the causes of accidents and the ways to prevent accidents that occur at high-rise building construction site. Qualitative method was employed in this research. Interview surveying with safety officers who are involved in highrise building project in Kuala Lumpur were conducted in this research. Accidents were caused by man-made factors, environment factors or machinery factors. The accidents prevention methods were provide sufficient Personal Protective Equipment (PPE, have a good housekeeping, execute safety inspection, provide safety training and execute accidents investigation. In the meanwhile, interviewees have suggested the new prevention methods that were develop a proper site layout planning and de-merit and merit system among sub-contractors, suppliers and even employees regarding safety at workplace matters. This research helps in explaining the causes of accidents and identifying area where prevention action should be implemented, so that workers and top management will increase awareness in preventing site accidents.

  20. Recent development of hydrodynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, Tetsufumi

    2014-09-01

    In this talk, I give an overview of recent development in hydrodynamic modeling of high-energy nuclear collisions. First, I briefly discuss about current situation of hydrodynamic modeling by showing results from the integrated dynamical approach in which Monte-Carlo calculation of initial conditions, quark-gluon fluid dynamics and hadronic cascading are combined. In particular, I focus on rescattering effects of strange hadrons on final observables. Next I highlight three topics in recent development in hydrodynamic modeling. These include (1) medium response to jet propagation in di-jet asymmetric events, (2) causal hydrodynamic fluctuation and its application to Bjorken expansion and (3) chiral magnetic wave from anomalous hydrodynamic simulations. (1) Recent CMS data suggest the existence of QGP response to propagation of jets. To investigate this phenomenon, we solve hydrodynamic equations with source term which exhibits deposition of energy and momentum from jets. We find a large number of low momentum particles are emitted at large angle from jet axis. This gives a novel interpretation of the CMS data. (2) It has been claimed that a matter created even in p-p/p-A collisions may behave like a fluid. However, fluctuation effects would be important in such a small system. We formulate relativistic fluctuating hydrodynamics and apply it to Bjorken expansion. We found the final multiplicity fluctuates around the mean value even if initial condition is fixed. This effect is relatively important in peripheral A-A collisions and p-p/p-A collisions. (3) Anomalous transport of the quark-gluon fluid is predicted when extremely high magnetic field is applied. We investigate this possibility by solving anomalous hydrodynamic equations. We found the difference of the elliptic flow parameter between positive and negative particles appears due to the chiral magnetic wave. Finally, I provide some personal perspective of hydrodynamic modeling of high energy nuclear collisions

  1. Development of a Refined Rollover Model That Recognizes the Effects of Suspension and Tire Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaowen Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle rollover represents one of the most dangerous traffic accidents in the world. To improve the antirollover capability of a vehicle, we established an improved rollover model with a particular focus on the effects of independent suspensions and the lateral deformation of the tire. Based on this model, we further developed a new method to mitigate the rollover occurrence by adjusting the stiffness of the spring and the damping coefficient of the damper. Through simulation tests with a brand of SUV, we demonstrated that these adjustments improved the mitigation control as evidenced by better confined steady value and decreased overshoot of the roll angle.

  2. Regulatory Research of the PWR Severe Accident. Information Needs and Instrumentation for Hydrogen Control and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Gun Chul; Suh, Kune Y.; Lee, Jin Yong; Lee, Seung Dong [Seoul Nat' l Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    The current research is concerned with generation of basic engineering data needed in the process of developing hydrogen control guidelines as part of accident management strategies for domestic nuclear power plants and formulating pertinent regulatory requirements. Major focus is placed on identification of information needs and instrumentation methods for hydrogen control and management in the primary system and in the containment, development of decision-making trees for hydrogen management and their quantification, the instrument availability under severe accident conditions, critical review of relevant hydrogen generation model and phenomena In relation to hydrogen behavior, we analyzed the severe accident related hydrogen generation in the UCN 3{center_dot}4 PWR with modified hydrogen generation model. On the basis of the hydrogen mixing experiment and related GASFLOW calculation, the necessity of 3-dimensional analysis of the hydrogen mixing was investigated. We examined the hydrogen control models related to the PAR(Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) and performed MAAP4 calculation in relation to the decision tree to estimate the capability and the role of the PAR during a severe accident.

  3. Development of reliability-based safety enhancement technology; development of organization concept model in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Chang Hyun; Kim, Ju Youl; Kim, Yoon Ik; Yang, Hui Chang; Lee, Yong Sik; Kim, Se Hyung [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    The influences of organizational factors on safety of nuclear power plants are mentioned in the early 1970s and noticed after being focused on in the accident report of TMI in 1979. These needs let us implement this research and the purposes of this research are to assess the organizational influences and to develop the organizational conceptual model to establish the basis of identifying the organizational factors, using this model to contribute to enhance safety and economics in nuclear power plants. Eventually research on the organizational influences is expected to have two effects, which are to improve safety through identifying potential causes of accidents and to elevate economics as a new approach to more efficient operation of nuclear power plants. In this study, recent studies were surveyed on the organizational conceptual model, the identification of organizational factors, assessment of organizational influences and evaluation methods of organizational factors and organizational influences among the overseas and domestic researches. In addition specific characteristics of domestic nuclear power plants were tried to identify through plant visit and an evaluation method of organizational influences on component maintenance and human performance were developed and presented. 71 refs., 40 figs., 18 tabs. (Author)

  4. Regulatory research of the PWR severe accident information needs and instrumentation availability for hydrogen control and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Park, Gun-Chul; Suh, Kune Y.; Kang, Yun-Moon; Lee, Un-Jang; Oh, Se-Chul; Lee, Jin-Yong [Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    During the current research period, we have set forth the methodology for identification of a severe accident, developed a framework for hydrogen management decision trees, and analyzed the literature on hydrogen management and experimental data for hydrogen bum. Specifically, we have summarized me results for information needs in a severe accident obtained in the U.S. and other countries, and applied the methodology to the reference plant YGN 3 and 4 as part of severe accident management. We have also examined the existing instruments in terms of their availability and survivability during a severe accident, and identified additionally needed information needs and instruments. We have identified dominant accident sequences for me reference plant YGN 3 and 4 to construct decision trees, and extracted available data from the IPE study of the plant. Based upon the data we have performed preliminary study on the decision tree and decision node. Last, we have examined various mechanisms for hydrogen generation and reIevant experimental data to predict me amount of hydrogen generation and governing factors in me process. We have also reviewed the hydrogen generation related models in the severe accident analysis.

  5. Injury risk prediction for traffic accidents in Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Perone, Christian S.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the experimental application of Machine Learning techniques to build prediction models that can assess the injury risk associated with traffic accidents. This work uses an freely available data set of traffic accident records that took place in the city of Porto Alegre/RS (Brazil) during the year of 2013. This study also provides an analysis of the most important attributes of a traffic accident that could produce an outcome of injury to the people involved in the accident.

  6. Development of CCF modeling and analysis methodology for diverse system status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Tae Jin; Byun, Si Sub; Yoon, Tae Kwan [Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea); Moon, Jae Pil [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea)

    1999-04-01

    The objectives of this project is to develop a procedure for modeling and analyzing CCF efficiently according to various system status. CCF events change according to the change of the system status due to maintenance, accidents, or alternating success criteria for various missions. The objective of the first year's research is to develope a CCF model for various system status. We reviewed and evaluated current CCF models, and analyze their merits and deficiency in modeling various system status. An approximate model is developed as a CCF model. The model is compatible with MGL model. Extensive sensitivity study shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model. Second year's research aims to the development of an integrated CCF procedure for PSA and risk monitor. We develope an adaptive method for the approximate model in a k/m/G system with multiple common cause groups. The accuracy of the method is proved by comparing with the implicit method. Next, we develope a method for modeling CCF in a fault tree. Three alternatives are considered. It is proved to be most efficient to model the CCF events under the gate of individual component failure. The we provides a method for estimating the CCF probability, and develope a software for this purpose. We finally provide a fundamental procedure for modeling CCF in a risk monitor. The modeling procedure is applied to HPSI system, and it is proved to be efficient and accurate. (author). 48 refs., 11 figs., 53 tabs.

  7. Inventory of socioeconomic costs of work accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mossink, J.; Greef, M. de

    2002-01-01

    The European Commission has prioritised the need to develop knowledge of the economic and social costs arising from occupational accidents and illnesses in their communication about a new Community strategy on safety and health at work for 2002-06. This report from the Agency aims to contribute to t

  8. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing; Abordagem sistematica para avaliacao de riscos de acidentes em instalacoes de processamento quimico e nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-15

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of

  9. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  10. A preview of the efficiency of systemic family therapy in treatment of children with posttraumatic stress disorder developed after car accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanković Miodrag

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Traumatic stress refers to physical and emotional reactions caused by events which represent a life threat or a disturbance of physical and phychological integrity of a child, as well as their parents or gaerdians. Car accidents are the main cause of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in children. The aim of this study was to preview clinical efficiency of systemic family therapy (SFT as therapy intervention in treatment of children with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD traumatized in car accident under identical circumstances of exposure. We pointed out the importance of specific family factors (family cohesion and adaptability, emotional reaction of the parents on PTSD clinical outcome. Methods. The sample of this clinical observational study included 7-sixth grade pupiles - 5 boys and 2 girls, aged 13. All of the pupils were involved in car accident with one death. Two groups were formed - one group included three children who were involved in 8 SFT sessions together with their families. The second group included 4 children who received an antidepressant sertraline in the period of three months. Results. Two months after the car accident, before the beginning of the therapy, all of the children were the members of rigidly enmeshed family systems, considering the high average cohesion scores and the low average adaptability scores on the FACES III. Three months after the received therapy, having evaluated the results of the therapeutic approaches, we established that the adaptability scores of the families included in the SFT were higher than the scores of the families of the children who received pharmacotherapy with one boy still meeting the criteria for PTSD. Conclusion. Systemic family therapy was efficient in the treatment of children with PTSD, traumatized in car accident. Therapy efficiency was higher when both parents and children were included in SFT than in the case when they were not included in the family

  11. TRENDS IN SOCIAL SECURITY AGAINST ACCIDENTS AT WORK AND PROFESSIONAL DISEASES IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hamankova

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the main trends of formation and development of insurance against accidents. Defined position of the social insurance against accidents and professional diseases in the social protection system in Ukraine. Investigated the essence and content of social insurance against accidents.

  12. [Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Jun

    2012-03-01

    It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

  13. Learning Safety Assessment from Accidents in a University Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2013-01-01

    This contribution describes how a chemical engineering department started learning from accidents during experimental work and ended up implementing an industrially inspired system for risk assessment of new and existing experimental setups as well as a system for assessing potential risk from...... the chemicals used in the experimental work. These experiences have led to recent developments which focus increasingly on the a theoretical basis for modeling and reasoning on safety as well as operational aspects within a common framework. Presently this framework is being extended with barrier concepts both...

  14. 中毒及爆炸模型在钢铁企业事故中的应用%Application of Poisoning and Explosion Model on Accidents in Iron and Steel Enterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    储莹; 孙胜利; 郭文晶; 张旭凤

    2012-01-01

    对钢铁企业煤气安全事故进行研究,通过建立煤气在大气中的扩散模型,分析企业常见的泄漏、中毒、火灾、爆炸事故,为企业的煤气安全运行提供指导和借鉴,为其安全管理体系的建设提供理论依据.%Several cases of coal gas accidents once occurring in Chinese iron and steel enterprises were investigated. The common accidents of gas leakage, poisoning, fire and explosion in domestic enterprises were explored through the establishment of diffusion models of coal gas in atmosphere. The exploration serves to provide not only practical guidance and reference for a safety production in iron and steel enterprises but also a theoretical basis for the construction of safety management system.

  15. CDF modeling of flow and transport processes in the reactor core of a modular high temperature reactor during an air ingress accident; CFD-Modellierung der Stroemungs- und Transportprozesse im Reaktorkern eines modularen Hochtemperaturreaktors waehrend eines Lufteinbruchstoerfalls

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baggemann, Johannes

    2015-05-22

    Generation IV of reactor design is supposed to include inherent safety systems that allow accident</